System reliability

Introduction

In this lecture we show how to calculate the reliability of:

I a series structure
I a parallel structure
I a series-parallel structure
I a bridge structure
I a k-out-of-n structure
when:
I the component reliabilities are known
I all components are assumed to be functioning/ not
functioning (binary)
I all components are assumed independent
At the end special attention will be given to the Inclusion-exclusion
method - an appropriate method for calculation of reliability for
complex systems.
Notation

Component:
I pi = P(Xi = 1) = Reliability of component i
I qi = P(Xi = 0) = Unreliability of component i

System:
I h = P(φ(X) = 1) = Reliability of the system
I g = P(φ(X) = 0) = Unreliability of the system
Reliability of a series structure

A series structure is functioning if and only if each component is

functioning.

a bt
t 1 2 ... n

Qn Qn
I h= i=1 P(Xi = 1) = i=1 pi
Reliability of a series structure - Example

Calculate the unreliability of a series structure with 2 independent

components. The components unreliabilities are 0.1 and 0.2.
Solution
Reliability of a parallel structure

A parallel structure is functioning if and only if at least one

component is functioning.
1

a 2 bt
t
..
.

Qn
I Unreliability of the system: g = i=1 qi
Q n `n
I Reliability of the system: h = 1 − i=1 (1 − pi ) = i=1 pi
Reliability of a parallel structure - Example

Calculate the reliability of a parallel structure with 3 independent

components. The components reliabilities are 0.9, 0.8 and 0.7.
Solution
Reliability of a series-parallel structure

By using the calculation formula for a series structure and a parallel

structure it is relatively straightforward to calculate the reliability
of a series-parallel structure, i.e a structure which can be divided
into only series and parallel structures. Let us consider an example.
Reliability of a series-parallel structure - Storage tank
example

Filling the tank is automatically controlled and can be described as

follows: when the liquid level reaches a certain height - ”normal
level”, then the Level Switch High (LSH) will be activated and
send a closure signal to the valve V1. The fluid supply to the tank
then stops. If this mechanism does not function and the liquid
level continues to increase to ”abnormal level”, then the Level
Switch High High (LSHH) will be activated and send a closure
signal to valve V2. The fluid supply to the tank then stops. At the
same time the LSHH sends an opening signal to valve V3 so that
the fluid is drained. The draining pipe has a higher capacity than
the supply pipe.
Reliability block diagram for the failure mode “over-filling of the
tank”:

1 4
a bt
t
2
5
3

The component reliabilities are p1 = p4 = p5 = 0.95 and

p2 = p3 = 0.90. Calculate the reliability of this system. Assume
that all components are independent.
Solution
Reliability of a bridge structure 1/2

The reliability block diagram for a bridge structure is shown below:

@
@
@
1 4
@
a bt
t 3
@@
@
@@
2 5
@
@
@

A bridge structure is not a series-parallel structure. It is not

possible to split the reliability block diagram into series and parallel
structures.
Reliability of a bridge structure 2/2

The most appropriate way to calculate the reliability of a bridge

structure is to adopt the factoring algorithm.

The basic idea of the factoring algorithm is to make a conditional

probability argument using the relation:

I h(p) = pi h(1i , p) + (1 − pi )h(0i , p)

h(1i , p) - the reliability of the system given that component i is in

the functional state.
h(0i , p) - the reliability of the system given that component i is in
the failure state.
The formula follows directly from a well-known probability rule, see
Appendix A, formula A.10.
Pr Pr
i=1 P(B ∩ Ai ) =
I P(B) =
i=1 P(B|Ai )P(Ai )
I r = 2; P(B) = P(B|A)P(A) + P(B|A)P(A)
Reliability of a bridge structure - Example

Calculate the reliability of the bridge structure if the component

reliabilities are 0.9. Assume that all components are independent.
Solution
Reliability of a k-out-of-n structure

A k-out-of n structure is functioning if at least k components are

functioning.

The reliability of a k-out-of-n structure of independent components

which
Pn all
have the n−i
same reliability p, equals:
n i
i=k i p (1 − p) .

This formula holds since ni=1 Xi has a binomial distribution with

P
parameters n and p under the given assumptions.
Reliability of a k-out-of-n structure - Example 1

Calculate the reliability of a 2-out-of-3 system. Assume that the

components are independent. The component reliabilities are 0.9.
Solution
Reliability of a k-out-of-n structure - Example 2

Calculate the reliability of a 2-out-of-3 system. Assume that the

components are independent. The component reliabilities are as
follows: p1 = p2 = 0.9 and p3 = 0.8.
Solution
Inclusion-exclusion method