AMBIT INSIGHTS

19 April 2017
DAILY

Thematic
Consumer
Have money… spend prudently
(Click here for detailed note)

Updates
Interglobe Aviation (SELL)
Are we overestimating yield and passenger growth?

Analyst Notes: Banks: RBI proposes higher provisioning for stressed sector
exposure
Ravi Singh, +91 22 3043 3181
The RBI has notified (https://goo.gl/aip6Tt) banks to consider higher standard asset
provisioning over and above the regulatory minimum for exposures to stressed
sectors. Beyond looking at company-specific stress, the RBI proposes to have board-
approved policy to review sector-level stress each quarter by monitoring debt-burden,
profitability ratios and policy issues of sectors. For the immediate future, it has asked
banks to review telecom sector exposure by end-June 2017 and consider making
higher provisions. While it is difficult to estimate what additional provisioning burden
these proposals could cause, similar measures in Jan’14 for exposure to companies
with unhedged foreign currency exposure prescribed additional provisions of up to
80bps. IndusInd Bank (4.7% of total exposure), Yes Bank (4.0%) and Kotak Mahindra Please refer to our website for
Bank (3.7%) have higher exposure to telecom. In another notification complete coverage universe
(https://goo.gl/V8ppU2), the RBI has tightened disclosure norms by asking banks to
disclose material divergences in asset classification and provisioning from RBI norms http://research.ambitcapital.com
(as discovered by the RBI) for FY16 along with their FY17 financial statements.
Source: Ambit Capital research

Ambit Capital and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Ambit Capital
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should not consider this report as the only factor in making their investment decision.
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
 Consumer
NEGATIVE
THEMATIC April 19, 2017

Have money… spend prudently Key Recommendations

GCPL SELL
The international businesses of FMCG companies GCPL, Dabur and
Marico contribute 25-50% of consolidated sales. Contrary to Target Price: 1,060 Downside: 37%
expectations, they failed to complement growth when the Indian
businesses decelerated. Businesses in the Middle East and the Indian Marico SELL
subcontinent have succeeded with high profitability and RoCE due to
Target Price: 250 Downside: 17%
their ‘right to win’ there. However, businesses in Sub-Saharan Africa
have been the worst performers with single-digit sales growth and Dabur SELL
RoCE. We prefer Dabur’s and Marico’s method of organically building
businesses over GCPL’s acquisition-led approach. Reiterate SELL on Target Price: 245 Downside: 15%
GCPL with possibility of its RoCE falling below 15% if further big-ticket
Britannia SELL
acquisitions are pursued.
Emerging market MNC ambitions fuelled overseas acquisitions Target Price: 2,800 Downside: 18%

Starting with export-led model in the late 1990s, Indian FMCG companies Asian Paints SELL
GCPL, Dabur and Marico organically built international operations in the early
2000s in countries with Indian diaspora. Via a series of acquisitions over FY06- Target Price: 835 Downside: 23%
13, they entered relatively unknown and higher-risk geographies (geopolitical Berger Paints SELL
and currency risk) like North and Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America to
rapidly increase overseas presence. Since FY13, Marico and Dabur have Target Price: 190 Downside: 24%
focused on organic growth while GCPL has continued with acquisitions.
Possibility of further reduction in GCPL’s
No ‘right to win’ in Sub-Saharan Africa
overseas RoCE while Marico and Dabur
Companies setting up operations in the Middle East or Indian subcontinent (ex- are expected to show improvement
India) had a ‘right to win’ given: a) cultural similarities helping product 100%
acceptability; and b) presence of significant Indian diaspora enabling use of
% of Organic buisness
Dabur*
75% Dabur
existing Indian brand architecture. However, they had no ‘right to win’ in Sub- Marico*
Saharan Africa and LatAm due to completely new product categories and 50% Marico
different consumer behaviour traits. Macro and geopolitical issues, poor 25% GCPL* GCPL
infrastructure and foreign exchange losses added to their woes.
0%
Organically built businesses doing better than acquisitions -25%
Organically built businesses like Dabur’s Asia business (ex-India) and Marico’s 0% 10% 20% 30%
ROCE of International business
Bangladesh business (MBL) have sales of `15bn/`6bn with 25%/13% CAGR
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research Note: Size
over FY12-16 and RoCE >50%. However, acquisitions like Dabur’s Namaste of the bubble denotes the size of the international
(0% sales CAGR) and GCPL’s Africa (10-11% sales CAGR) generate RoCE of business as % of total company sales, * denotes the
<10% and are unable to pay down their own debt. Operating at debt:equity of positioning of the company after 5 years, for e.g.
Marico* denotes the positioning of Marico after 5
~5x, these businesses will continue to need equity infusion by the standalone years
India business given their inability to generate internal accruals.

Prefer Dabur’s and Marico’s organic growth to GCPL’s acquisitions

Consistently significant FCF generation in an FMCG company makes capital
allocation very important but also makes detecting management’s capital
misallocations difficult. Prudent capital allocation ensures long-term wealth Research Analysts
creation. Acquisitions have reduced RoCE of all three companies. However,
Ritesh Vaidya, CFA
Dabur and Marico corrected course and have halted acquisitions. GCPL’s
continued focus on acquisitions despite RoCE falling from 65% in FY07 to 17% +91 22 3043 3246
in FY16 is a concern. Reiterate SELL on GCPL. ritesh.vaidya@ambit.co
Mapping international businesses - Dabur, Marico placed higher than GCPL Anuj Bansal
% of Business +91 22 3043 3122
Geographical Resource Financial
Company international integration Overall
sales
spread allocation
ability
transparency anuj.bansal@ambit.co
GCPL 45% Dhiraj Mistry, CFA
Marico 22% +91 22 3043 3264
Dabur 32% dhiraj.mistry@ambit.co
Source: Ambit Capital research Note: - Strong; - Relatively Strong; - Average; - Relatively weak.

Ambit Capital and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Ambit Capital
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should not consider this report as the only factor in making their investment decision.
 AMBIT INSIGHTS

Interglobe Aviation SELL

Are we overestimating yield and passenger growth? Quick Insight
The industry reported domestic passenger growth at 20%+ p.a. over FY16-17
driven by ~5-10% annual decrease in yields aided by weak fuel prices in Stock Information
FY16 and margin decline in FY17. For Indigo, after a likely 55% YoY decline in Bloomberg Code: INDIGO IN
PBT/ASK in FY17, a further 3-4% cut in yields at the cost of margins may make
CMP (Rs): 1092
operations unprofitable in FY18. With a decline in yields unlikely, passenger
growth may lag capacity growth of 16-17%. This implies that our/consensus TP (Rs): 760
expectations of a simultaneous 6% YoY increase in yields, ASK growth of 19% Mcap (Rs bn/US$ bn): 395/6.1
and stable utilisation of ~85% in FY18 may see significant downside risks.
3M ADV (Rs mn/US$ mn): 521/8.1
Our sensitivity analysis indicates that 1% lower-than-expected yields or
utilisation would hit FY18E EPS by 10-12%. Even on our currently optimistic
assumptions, Indigo trades at 20x FY18E P/E and 9x EV/EBITDAR, at a
Stock Performance (%)
significant premium to global peer average of 11x P/E and 6x EV/EBITDAR.
1M 3M 12M YTD
Absolute 19 24 4 33
Rel. to Sensex 19 16 (10) 22
FY17 yields and margins much lower than expected Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

We initiated Indigo with a SELL stance a year back as we expected margins to come
under pressure to absorb mid-teen capacity growth (click here for our initiation note).
Ambit Estimates (Rs mn)
Valuations optimistically factored in sustained mid-teen ASK CAGR over FY17-26E
and sustenance of peak unitary margin of Rs0.54/ASK seen in FY16 (2x FY10-15 FY16E FY17E FY18E
average). However, both of these seem difficult due to planned capacity addition at Revenues 161,399 187,014 236,230
mid-teen levels, insufficient airport infrastructure, and need for decline in prices to EBITDA 30,025 21,047 27,675
keep passenger growth above 15%. In FY17: EPS (Rs) 55.2 44.2 53.0
 Decline in yields and margins sharper than expected: At the beginning of Source: Company, Ambit Capital research
the year, we expected 3%/12% YoY decline in average yields/PBT per ASK in FY17
due to rising competition. As against this, in 9MFY17, yields declined by 12% and
PBT/ASK declined by 53% – Rs0.54/ASK in FY16 to Rs0.24/ASK in FY17.
 ASK growth marginally higher than expectations: We expected 26% ASK
growth in FY17 vs management’s initial guidance of 34%. Actual ASK growth in
11MFY17 was marginally higher, at ~29%.
 Market values of A320neo and A320 largely stable: Although our estimates
and valuation did not factor in any decline in profits from sale and lease back, we
saw possible risks to the quantum of Indigo’s cash incentives from sale and
leaseback as the over 50% correction in crude makes fuel savings less attractive.
However, market values of the A320 and the A320neo have remained largely
stable at US$43mn and US$48mn respectively.

Research Analyst
Parita Ashar, CFA
parita.ashar@ambit.co
Tel: +91 22 3043 3223

Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 19 April 2017

 AMBIT INSIGHTS

Yield decline drives 20%+ passenger growth in FY16-

17
Over the last 10 years, India’s domestic airline passenger traffic has grown at a
healthy 13% CAGR, implying an average GDP factor of 1.8x. Over the last 20 years,
passenger growth in China has been ~13%, or 1.5x of GDP. As against this,
passenger growth in India has been growing ~20%+ p.a. over FY16 and FY17.
Exhibit 1: 20%+ passenger growth p.a. coincides with declining yields

25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

1QFY15

2QFY15

3QFY15

4QFY15

1QFY16

2QFY16

3QFY16

4QFY16

1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17
Indigo - YoY Yield growth (%) SpiceJet - YoY Yield growth (%)
Jet (Standalone) - YoY Yield growth (%) Industry passenger growth YoY (%)

Source: Company, Ambit capital research

Limited scope for further cuts to yields at the cost of

margins
As depicted in exhibit above, the 20%+ passenger growth coincides with the period
when yields have been declining either due to declining crude prices (as seen in FY16)
or at the cost of margins of airline companies (as seen in FY17). This corroborates
with our view that 15%+ passenger growth requires lower price points, and in the
absence of further decline in crude prices, yield decline will have to come at the cost
of margins.
PBT/ASK for Indigo is likely to decline to ~Rs0.24/ASK in FY17 vs ~Rs0.54/ASK in
FY16 and in line with the FY10-15 average. Another 3-4% decline in yields is likely to
completely erode the profitability for Indigo in FY18 and, hence, we see limited scope
for further cuts in fares at the cost of margins.

Strong supply growth to limit improvement in pricing

As depicted in the exhibit below, all the major airlines plan to add significant capacity
over the next three years. Hence, supply would increase at 16% CAGR over FY17-20E.
The recently announced summer schedule for airline slots also suggests 15.5% YoY
growth. We highlight that 16-17% capacity growth does not factor in capacity
additions from any new domestic international player such as Qatar Airways, which is
considering entering the Indian domestic sector.

Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 19 April 2017

 AMBIT INSIGHTS

Exhibit 2: Supply to grow by ~16% CAGR led by strong fleet addition plans
Current FY17E % FY17-20E 4 year
Key Airlines Comments
fleet additions growth additions CAGR (%)

Go Air has an order book of 72 A320neos, of which, we expect 8 to

be delivered in FY17 and the rest over the next 4 years. Although Go
Air has recently given an order of another 72 aircrafts, there is limited
Go Air 23 67 58% 23 67
visibility on the delivery of these newly ordered aircrafts. Moreover,
we think some of these will be used for replacement of existing
aircrafts and hence, we have not included these

Jet has order book of 75 737 Max 8s; however, deliveries are
Jet Airways + Jet Lite 102 75 20% 102 75 expected to begin only in end-CY17. We factor in return of 6 aircraft
sub-leased to Etihad and other airlines in FY17

Indigo has an order book of 427 A320neos, of which, we expect over

Indigo 132 59 13% 132 59
100 are to be delivered over FY17-20E, including 17 in FY17.

Air India will induct up to 15 A320 aircraft on dry lease, without

ground staff, insurance and supporting equipment. The aircraft will be
on lease for a period of up to 12 years and will include both new and
old planes, which are not older than six years at the time of leasing.
Air India 137 30 7% 137 30
Moreover, Air India plans to induct 15 more A320. In addition to
these 30 A320 aircraft, Air India has announced inducting 14 new
A320neos (new engine option) to replace its older fleet. The delivery
of 2 of these aircrafts has begun since Mar-17.

SpiceJet had placed an order for 155 737 Max for deliveries to begin
Spice Jet 49 34 19% 49 34 from late 2018. We expect the size of the fleet to move up from 48
at present to 83 by the end of FY20 (19% over 3 years).

Expect Air Asia to reach 20 aircrafts by FY2018 from 8 planes

Air Asia 9 11 30% 9 11
currently.

Vistara got delivery of its 13th aircraft in Oct-16 and plans to increase
Vistara 13 7 15% 13 7
the fleet to 20 aircrafts by 2018.

Total 465 283 17% 465 283

Source: DGCA, Press articles, Companies, Ambit Capital research

Where do we go from here?

Are we overestimating yields, passenger growth and margins?
To meet our and consensus revenue, EBITDAR and EBITDA estimates, Indigo needs to
report (a) 6% YoY increase in yields in FY18; (b) ASK growth of 19%; and (c) stable
utilisation of ~85%. We remain concerned that a 5-6% increase in yields may
negatively impact passenger growth. Hence, we see significant downside risks to our
and consensus FY18 estimates as 5-6% yield growth and 15%+ passenger growth
may be difficult to achieve simultaneously.
Sensitivity to earnings
 Yield: Every 1% decrease in yields has a negative impact of ~10% on FY18 EPS.
 Utilisation: Every 1% decrease in utilisation has a negative impact of ~12% on
FY18 EPS.
Optimistic assumptions + expensive valuations
Even on optimistic assumptions, the stock trades at 20x FY18 P/E and 9x EV/EBITDAR.
These multiples are at a significant premium to global peer average of 11x P/E and 6x
EV/EBITDAR. We reiterate SELL on Indigo with a TP of Rs760, which implies FY19E
EV/EBITDAR of 6.3x and FY19 P/E of 12.4x.

Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 19 April 2017

 AMBIT INSIGHTS

Exhibit 3: Key assumptions and estimates

FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E
Ending fleet 94 107 133 153 169
% growth 22.1% 13.8% 24.3% 15.0% 10.5%
Average fleet 86 101 120 143 161
% growth 19.6% 17.5% 19.4% 19.2% 12.6%
ASK (in millions) 35,327 42,830 54,678 65,158 73,360
% growth 17.9% 21.2% 27.7% 19.2% 12.6%
Passenger load factor 79.8% 84.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0%
RPK (in millions) 28,177 35,970 46,490 55,401 62,374
% growth 21.8% 27.7% 29.2% 19.2% 12.6%
ATF price/litre 64.0 44.7 43.3 46.4 47.3
% growth -10.0% -30.2% -3.0% 7.0% 2.0%
Yields (Rs) 4.94 4.49 4.02 4.26 4.39
% growth 2.9% -9.2% -10.3% 6.0% 2.9%
Unitary costs (Rs/ASK)
Revenue 3.94 3.77 3.42 3.63 3.73
Fuel cost 1.63 1.12 1.17 1.22 1.22
Other costs 1.23 1.34 1.30 1.35 1.43
EBITDAR 1.08 1.31 0.95 1.05 1.09
Lease rentals - gross 0.65 0.69 0.67 0.73 0.78
Incentives (0.10) (0.08) (0.10) (0.10) (0.12)
Lease rentals - net 0.55 0.61 0.57 0.63 0.66
EBITDA 0.53 0.70 0.38 0.42 0.42
Depreciation 0.09 0.12 0.09 0.09 0.09
EBIT 0.44 0.58 0.29 0.34 0.34
Interest 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.03
PBT 0.41 0.55 0.24 0.30 0.30
Profit & Loss (Rs mn)
Total Revenues 139,253 161,399 187,014 236,230 273,545
Expenditure ex- fuel and rentals 43,549 57,459 70,998 88,258 104,614
EBITDAR pre fuel 95,704 103,940 116,017 147,972 168,931
Aircraft fuel expenses 57,485 47,793 64,037 79,442 89,206
EBITDAR 38,219 56,147 51,980 68,530 79,725
EBITDAR margin (%) 27.4% 34.8% 27.8% 29.0% 29.1%
Aircraft rental on operating lease – Gross 23,076 29,687 36,393 47,415 57,162
Cash and non-cash Incentives (3,553) (3,566) (5,461) (6,560) (8,480)
Aircraft rental for operating lease – Net 19,522 26,122 30,933 40,855 48,682
EBITDA 18,697 30,025 21,047 27,675 31,043
EBITDA margin (%) 13.4% 18.6% 11.3% 11.7% 11.3%
Depreciation 3,022 5,031 4,942 5,792 6,286
Other Income 3,838 4,614 6,653 7,108 9,345
Finance cost 1,155 1,319 2,783 2,421 2,421
Profit Before Tax 18,357 28,290 19,975 26,571 31,682
Provision for Tax 5,402 8,392 4,009 7,440 9,505
Profit After Tax 12,956 19,897 15,966 19,131 22,177
EPS (Rs/share) 42.2 55.2 44.2 53.0 61.4
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research

Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 19 April 2017

 AMBIT INSIGHTS

Forensic score percentile Greatness score percentile

Source: Ambit Capital research Source: Ambit Capital research

Forensic Score Evolution Greatness Score Evolution

Source: Ambit Capital research Source: Ambit Capital research

Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 19 April 2017

 AMBIT INSIGHTS

Income statement (Rs mn)

Particulars FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E
Total Revenues 139,253 161,399 187,014 236,230 273,545
Expenditure ex- fuel and rentals 43,549 57,459 70,998 88,258 104,614
EBITDAR pre fuel 95,704 103,940 116,017 147,972 168,931
Aircraft fuel expenses 57,485 47,793 64,037 79,442 89,206
EBITDAR 38,219 56,147 51,980 68,530 79,725
EBITDAR margin (%) 27.4% 34.8% 27.8% 29.0% 29.1%
Aircraft rental on operating lease
23,076 29,687 36,393 47,415 57,162
– Gross
Cash and non-cash Incentives (3,553) (3,566) (5,461) (6,560) (8,480)
Aircraft rental for operating
19,522 26,122 30,933 40,855 48,682
lease – Net
EBITDA 18,697 30,025 21,047 27,675 31,043
EBITDA margin (%) 13.4% 18.6% 11.3% 11.7% 11.3%
Depreciation 3,022 5,031 4,942 5,792 6,286
EBIT 15,675 24,994 16,105 21,883 24,758
Other Income 3,838 4,614 6,653 7,108 9,345
Finance cost 1,155 1,319 2,783 2,421 2,421
Profit Before Tax 18,357 28,290 19,975 26,571 31,682
PBT margin (%) 13.2% 17.5% 10.7% 11.2% 11.6%
Provision for Tax 5,402 8,392 4,009 7,440 9,505
Profit After Tax 12,956 19,897 15,966 19,131 22,177
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research

Balance Sheet (Rs mn)

Particulars FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E
Share Capital 344 3,604 3,612 3,612 3,612
Total Reserves 3,918 14,739 24,957 37,201 51,395
Shareholder's Funds 4,262 18,343 28,569 40,813 55,007
Total debt 39,262 32,008 32,008 32,008 32,008
Deferred Tax Liabilities 4,091 5,180 5,180 5,180 5,180
Other Long Term Liabilities 20,359 26,994 24,229 28,829 32,429
Deferred Incentives 17,516 15,832 17,450 23,380 27,095
Sources of Funds 86,014 99,167 108,247 131,021 152,529
Total Fixed Assets 48,765 47,275 46,852 46,447 46,225
Current Assets
Inventories 1,306 1,267 1,267 1,601 1,854
Sundry Debtors 1,046 1,571 1,571 1,985 2,298
Cash and Bank 19,994 37,187 49,454 78,817 105,366
Total Current Assets 31,680 56,008 68,275 98,385 125,501
Trade Payables 4,755 7,412 7,412 9,363 10,842
Other Current Liabilities 15,441 16,729 19,495 24,474 28,381
Total Current Liabilities 21,724 31,024 33,790 40,720 46,106
Net Current Assets 9,956 24,984 34,485 57,665 79,395
Application of Funds 86,014 99,167 108,247 131,021 152,529
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research

Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 19 April 2017

 AMBIT INSIGHTS

Cash flow statement (Rs mn)

Particulars FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E
Profit Before Tax 18,357 28,290 19,975 26,571 31,682
Depreciation 3,022 5,031 4,942 5,792 6,286
Interest & Dividend income (2,704) (4,614) (6,653) (7,108) (9,345)
Trade & Other payables 8,607 2,658 (0) 1,951 1,479
Increase/(Decrease) in
35 (1,684) 1,617 5,930 3,715
Deferred incentives
Taxes paid (3,951) (7,304) (4,009) (7,440) (9,505)
CFO 23,839 30,508 18,657 36,948 33,673
CFI (9,406) 1,074 2,133 1,722 3,281
Capex (10,170) (3,540) (4,520) (5,386) (6,064)
Others 764 4,614 6,653 7,108 9,345
CFF (13,070) (14,389) (8,522) (9,308) (10,405)
Borrowings 3,817 (7,254) - - -
Dividends paid (16,128) (18,521) (5,748) (6,887) (7,984)
Finance charges paid (219) (2,783) (2,421) (2,421) (2,421)
Net Cash Inflow / Outflow 1,363 17,192 12,268 29,363 26,550
FCFF 13,669 26,968 14,137 31,562 27,609
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research

Margins / Ratios (Rs mn)

Particulars FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E
Unitary costs (Rs/ASK)
Revenue 3.94 3.77 3.42 3.63 3.73
Fuel cost 1.63 1.12 1.17 1.22 1.22
Other costs 1.23 1.34 1.30 1.35 1.43
EBITDAR 1.08 1.31 0.95 1.05 1.09
Lease rentals – gross 0.65 0.69 0.67 0.73 0.78
Incentives (0.10) (0.08) (0.10) (0.10) (0.12)
Lease rentals – net 0.55 0.61 0.57 0.63 0.66
EBITDA 0.53 0.70 0.38 0.42 0.42
Depreciation 0.09 0.12 0.09 0.09 0.09
EBIT 0.44 0.58 0.29 0.34 0.34
Interest 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.03
PBT 0.41 0.55 0.24 0.30 0.30
Margins
EBITDAR margin % 27.4% 34.8% 27.8% 29.0% 29.1%
EBITDA margin % 13.4% 18.6% 11.3% 11.7% 11.3%
Adjusted net profit margin % 9.3% 12.3% 8.5% 8.1% 8.1%
Per share (Rs)
EPS 42.2 55.2 44.2 53.0 61.4
DPS 35.2 42.8 13.3 15.9 18.4
Key drivers
ASK (in millions) 35,327 42,830 54,678 65,158 73,360
Passenger load factor 79.8% 84.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0%
RPK (in millions) 28,177 35,970 46,490 55,401 62,374
Yields (Rs/RPK) 4.94 4.49 4.02 4.26 4.39
Valuation (x)
P/E 28.7 19.6 24.4 20.4 17.6
EV/EBITDAR 16.2 11.0 11.9 9.0 7.8
EV/EBITDA 17.8 11.1 11.1 12.0 10.7
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research

Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 19 April 2017

 AMBIT INSIGHTS

Institutional Equities Team

Saurabh Mukherjea, CFA CEO, Ambit Capital Private Limited (022) 30433174 saurabh.mukherjea@ambit.co
Pramod Gubbi, CFA Head of Equities (022) 30433124 pramod.gubbi@ambit.co
Research Analysts
Name Industry Sectors Desk-Phone E-mail
Nitin Bhasin - Head of Research E&C / Infra / Cement / Home Building (022) 30433241 nitin.bhasin@ambit.co
Aadesh Mehta, CFA Banking / Financial Services (022) 30433239 aadesh.mehta@ambit.co
Abhishek Ranganathan, CFA Retail / Consumer Discretionary (022) 30433085 abhishek.r@ambit.co
Anuj Bansal Consumer (022) 30433122 anuj.bansal@ambit.co
Aditi Singh Economy / Strategy (022) 30433284 aditi.singh@ambit.co
Ashvin Shetty, CFA Automobiles / Auto Ancillaries (022) 30433285 ashvin.shetty@ambit.co
Bhargav Buddhadev Power Utilities / Capital Goods (022) 30433252 bhargav.buddhadev@ambit.co
Deepesh Agarwal, CFA Power Utilities / Capital Goods (022) 30433275 deepesh.agarwal@ambit.co
Dhiraj Mistry, CFA Consumer (022) 30433264 dhiraj.mistry@ambit.co
Gaurav Khandelwal, CFA Automobiles / Auto Ancillaries (022) 30433132 gaurav.khandelwal@ambit.co
Girisha Saraf Home Building (022) 30433211 girisha.saraf@ambit.co
Karan Khanna, CFA Strategy (022) 30433251 karan.khanna@ambit.co
Mayank Porwal Retail / Consumer Discretionary (022) 30433214 mayank.porwal@ambit.co
Pankaj Agarwal, CFA Banking / Financial Services (022) 30433206 pankaj.agarwal@ambit.co
Paresh Dave, CFA Healthcare (022) 30433212 paresh.dave@ambit.co
Parita Ashar, CFA Cement / Metals / Aviation (022) 30433223 parita.ashar@ambit.co
Prashant Mittal, CFA Strategy / Derivatives (022) 30433218 prashant.mittal@ambit.co
Rahil Shah Banking / Financial Services (022) 30433217 rahil.shah@ambit.co
Ravi Singh Banking / Financial Services (022) 30433181 ravi.singh@ambit.co
Ritesh Gupta, CFA Oil & Gas / Chemicals / Agri Inputs (022) 30433242 ritesh.gupta@ambit.co
Ritesh Vaidya, CFA Consumer (022) 30433246 ritesh.vaidya@ambit.co
Ritika Mankar Mukherjee, CFA Economy / Strategy (022) 30433175 ritika.mankar@ambit.co
Sagar Rastogi Technology (022) 30433291 sagar.rastogi@ambit.co
Sudheer Guntupalli Technology (022) 30433203 sudheer.guntupalli@ambit.co
Sumit Shekhar Economy / Strategy (022) 30433229 sumit.shekhar@ambit.co
Utsav Mehta, CFA E&C / Infrastructure (022) 30433209 utsav.mehta@ambit.co
Vivekanand Subbaraman, CFA Media / Telecom (022) 30433261 vivekanand.s@ambit.co
Sales
Name Regions Desk-Phone E-mail
Sarojini Ramachandran - Head of Sales UK +44 (0) 20 7886 2740 sarojini.r@ambit.co
Dharmen Shah India / Asia (022) 30433289 dharmen.shah@ambit.co
Dipti Mehta India (022) 30433053 dipti.mehta@ambit.co
Krishnan V India / Asia (022) 30433295 krishnanv@ambit.co
Nityam Shah, CFA Europe (022) 30433259 nityam.shah@ambit.co
Punitraj Mehra, CFA India / Asia (022) 30433198 punitraj.mehra@ambit.co
Shaleen Silori India (022) 30433256 shaleen.silori@ambit.co
Singapore
Praveena Pattabiraman Singapore +65 6536 0481 praveena.pattabiraman@ambit.co
Shashank Abhisheik Singapore +65 6536 1935 shashankabhisheik@ambitpte.com
USA / Canada
Ravilochan Pola – CEO Americas +1(646) 793 6001 ravi.pola@ambitamerica.co
Hitakshi Mehra Americas +1(646) 793 6002 hitakshi.mehra@ambitamerica.co
Achint Bhagat, CFA Americas +1(646) 793 6752 achint.bhagat@ambitamerica.co
Production
Sajid Merchant Production (022) 30433247 sajid.merchant@ambit.co
Sharoz G Hussain Production (022) 30433183 sharoz.hussain@ambit.co
Jestin George Editor (022) 30433272 jestin.george@ambit.co
Richard Mugutmal Editor (022) 30433273 richard.mugutmal@ambit.co
Nikhil Pillai Database (022) 30433265 nikhil.pillai@ambit.co

Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 19 April 2017

 AMBIT INSIGHTS

Marico Ltd (MRCO IN, SELL) Britannia Industries Ltd (BRIT IN, SELL)

350 4,000
300 3,500
250 3,000
2,500
200
2,000
150
1,500
100 1,000
50 500
0 0
Feb-14
May-14

Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15

Nov-15
Feb-16
May-16

Nov-16
Feb-17

Feb-14
May-14

Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15

Nov-15
Feb-16
May-16

Nov-16
Feb-17
Aug-14

Aug-15

Aug-16

Aug-14

Aug-15

Aug-16
Marico Ltd Britannia Industries Ltd

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Berger Paints India Ltd (BRGR IN, SELL) Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN, SELL)

300 350
250 300
250
200
200
150
150
100 100
50 50
0 0
Feb-14
May-14

Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15

Nov-15
Feb-16
May-16

Nov-16
Feb-17

May-14

Nov-14

May-15

Nov-15

May-16

Nov-16
Aug-14

Aug-15

Aug-16

Feb-14

Aug-14

Feb-15

Aug-15

Feb-16

Aug-16

Feb-17
Berger Paints India Ltd Dabur India Ltd

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL IN, SELL) Asian Paints Ltd (APNT IN, SELL)

1,800 1,400
1,600 1,200
1,400
1,200 1,000
1,000 800
800 600
600 400
400
200 200
0 0
May-14

Nov-14

May-15

Nov-15

May-16

Nov-16

May-14

Nov-14

May-15

Nov-15

May-16

Nov-16
Feb-14

Aug-14

Feb-15

Aug-15

Feb-16

Aug-16

Feb-17

Feb-14

Aug-14

Feb-15

Aug-15

Feb-16

Aug-16

Feb-17

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd Asian Paints Ltd

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 19 April 2017

 AMBIT INSIGHTS

Interglobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN, SELL)

1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500

Sep-16
Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Apr-16

May-16

Jun-16

Jul-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17
InterGlobe Aviation Ltd

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 19 April 2017

 AMBIT INSIGHTS

Explanation of Investment Rating

Investment Rating Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY >10%
SELL <10%
NO STANCE We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning valuation and recommendation
UNDER REVIEW We will revisit our recommendation, valuation and estimates on the stock following recent events
NOT RATED We do not have any forward looking estimates, valuation or recommendation for the stock
POSITIVE We have a positive view on the sector and most of stocks under our coverage in the sector are BUYs
NEGATIVE We have a negative view on the sector and most of stocks under our coverage in the sector are SELLs
* In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst becomes inconsistent with the rating legend, the Research Analyst shall within 28 days of the inconsistency, take appropriate measures (like
change in stance/estimates) to make the recommendation consistent with the rating legend.
Disclaimer
This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of Ambit Capital. AMBIT Capital Research is disseminated and available primarily electronically,
and, in some cases, in printed form.
Additional information on recommended securities is available on request.

Disclaimer
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Manager, Merchant Banker and Depository Participant registered with Securities and Exchange Board of India Limited (SEBI) and is regulated by SEBI.
2. AMBIT Capital makes best endeavours to ensure that the research analyst(s) use current, reliable, comprehensive information and obtain such information from sources which the analyst(s) believes to
be reliable. However, such information has not been independently verified by AMBIT Capital and/or the analyst(s) and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy
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18. All of the recommendations and views about the securities and companies in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the research analyst named on the cover. No part of this research
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Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 19 April 2017

 AMBIT INSIGHTS

25. The value of any investment made at your discretion based on this Report, or income therefrom, maybe affected by changes in economic, financial and/or political factors and may go down as well as
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29. The research report is solely a product of AMBIT Capital
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Disclosures
37. The analyst (s) has/have not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company.
38. There is no material disciplinary action that has been taken by any regulatory authority impacting equity research analysis activities.
39. All market data included in this report are dated as at the previous stock market closing day from the date of this report.

Analyst Certification
Each of the analysts identified in this report certifies, with respect to the companies or securities that the individual analyses, that (1) the views expressed in this report reflect his or her personal views about
all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly dependent on the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

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Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 19 April 2017