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New Vehicle Registrations Should Exceed 1.9 Million Units in 2019; Despite Mild Decline
1.85 1.92
TRENDS 2.0
1.40
1.53
1.71 The state’s new vehicle market
is predicted to decline 4 percent
1.5 1.22
1.04 1.11 from 2018 to 2019, which would
1.0 be the third consecutive annual
decline.
0.5
Although the market is shifting
0.0 lower, new vehicle registrations
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19*
are well above average, based on
Years historical standards.
Historical data source: IHS *2019 forecast by Auto Outlook.
California and U.S. Total New Light Vehicle Registrations - YTD thru March
California U.S.
YTD '18 YTD '19 Change YTD '18 YTD '19 Change
Registrations
TWO YEAR TOTAL 489,814 463,835 -5.3% 4,119,158 3,999,418 -2.9%
California new light vehicle
market declined 5.3 percent
PERSPECTIVE Car
Light Truck
227,235
262,579
203,846 -10.3% 1,344,674 1,202,397 -10.6%
259,989 -1.0% 2,774,484 2,797,021 0.8%
during the first three months of
this year, while the U.S. market
Domestic 143,208 143,650 0.3% 1,818,393 1,783,292 -1.9%
fell 2.9 percent.
European 73,470 70,023 -4.7% 373,452 367,802 -1.5%
Japanese 240,697 219,150 -9.0% 1,636,193 1,545,254 -5.6% Light truck registrations in the
Korean 32,439 31,012 -4.4% 291,120 303,070 4.1% state slipped one percent, while
Market Share passenger cars fell 10.3 percent.
Car 46.4 43.9 -2.5 32.6 30.1 -2.5
Light Truck 53.6 56.1 2.5 67.4 69.9 2.5 Passenger car market share in
Domestic 29.2 31.0 1.8 44.1 44.6 0.5 California was 43.9 percent vs.
European 15.0 15.1 0.1 9.1 9.2 0.1 30.1 percent in the Nation.
Japanese 49.1 47.2 -1.9 39.7 38.6 -1.1
Korean 6.6 6.7 0.1 7.1 7.6 0.5
Source: IHS
Source: IHS
Covering First Quarter 2019 Page 2
28% 30%
Non Luxury Md
Size & Large Cars, Size & Large Cars,
13% 13%
The two graphs above show market shares for primary segments during the first three months of 2018 and 2019.
6.0%
5.0%
Market Share
Source: IHS
At Auto Outlook, we strive to provide sound and accurate analyses and forecasts based upon the data available to us. However, our forecasts are derived from third-party data and
contain a number of assumptions made by Auto Outlook and its management, including, without limitation, the accuracy of the data compiled. As a result, Auto Outlook can make
no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the data we provide or the forecasts or projections that we make based upon such data. Auto Outlook
expressly disclaims any such warranties, and undue reliance should not be placed on any such data, forecasts, projections, or predictions. Auto Outlook undertakes no obligation to
update or revise any predictions or forecasts, whether as a result of any new data, the occurrence of future events, or otherwise.
Page 3 California Auto Outlook
MODEL RANKINGS
Top Selling Models in Each Segment - New Light Vehicle Registrations (YTD '19 thru March)
Cars
Subcompact Compact Sports/Pony Cars Mid Size
Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share
Kia Soul 3083 19.7 Honda Civic 18728 27.4 Ford Mustang 1978 28.0 Toyota Camry 15891 29.6
Chevrolet Bolt 2285 14.6 Toyota Corolla 14075 20.6 Dodge Challenger 1482 21.0 Honda Accord 14300 26.7
Ford Fiesta 1906 12.2 Nissan Sentra 5808 8.5 Chevrolet Camaro 1404 19.9 Ford Fusion 6233 11.6
Nissan Versa 1825 11.6 Hyundai Elantra 4091 6.0 Hyundai Veloster 1215 17.2 Nissan Altima 4011 7.5
Toyota Yaris 1584 10.1 Toyota Prius 3745 5.5 Mazda MX5 342 4.8 Kia Optima 3317 6.2
Large Entry Luxury Near Luxury Luxury and High End Sports Cars
Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share
Dodge Charger 2986 44.8 Mercedes CLA-Class 1241 33.7 Tesla Model 3 15805 45.8 Tesla Model S 2137 14.8
Chevrolet Impala 1217 18.3 Audi A3 728 19.8 Mercedes C-Class 4120 12.0 Mercedes E-Class 2124 14.7
Toyota Avalon 773 11.6 Acura ILX 573 15.6 Lexus ES 2402 7.0 BMW 5-Series 1908 13.2
Chrysler 300 763 11.5 BMW I3 459 12.5 BMW 3-Series 2047 5.9 Audi A6 857 5.9
Ford Taurus 395 5.9 BMW 2-Series 381 10.4 BMW 4-Series 1636 4.7 BMW 7-Series 791 5.5
Light Trucks
Compact/Mid Size Pickup Full Size Pickup Mini Van Large Van
Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share
Toyota Tacoma 10760 64.1 Ford F Series 11491 34.8 Honda Odyssey 2956 29.8 Ford Transit Connect Van 3461 40.1
Chevrolet Colorado 2785 16.6 Chevrolet Silverado 8013 24.3 Toyota Sienna 2860 28.8 Ram Promaster 1455 16.9
Nissan Frontier /Xe 1328 7.9 Ram Pickup 7528 22.8 Chrysler Pacifica 1949 19.7 Chevrolet Express 1127 13.1
Ford Ranger 643 3.8 Toyota Tundra 2732 8.3 Dodge Caravan 1814 18.3 Mercedes Sprinter 1051 12.2
GMC Canyon 634 3.8 GMC Sierra 2701 8.2 Kia Sedona 339 3.4 Nissan NV 982 11.4
Subcompact SUV Compact SUV Mid Size SUV Large SUV
Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share
Honda HR-V 3128 18.7 Toyota RAV4 10603 15.8 Toyota Highlander 6026 12.2 Chevrolet Tahoe 1764 28.6
Toyota C-HR 2710 16.2 Honda CR-V 10560 15.7 Ford Explorer 5372 10.9 Ford Expedition 1017 16.5
Nissan Kicks 2150 12.9 Nissan Rogue 6381 9.5 Subaru Outback 4728 9.6 Chevrolet Suburban 964 15.6
Hyundai Kona 1725 10.3 Mazda CX-5 5078 7.6 Jeep Grand Cherokee 4106 8.3 GMC Yukon XL 661 10.7
Kia Niro 1467 8.8 Jeep Wrangler 4651 6.9 Honda Pilot 3790 7.7 Ford Flex 641 10.4
Luxury Subcompact SUV Luxury Compact SUV Luxury Mid Size SUV Luxury Large SUV
Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share
BMW X1 1281 24.8 Mercedes GLC-Class 3571 17.1 Lexus RX 4641 21.6 Land Rover Range Rover 1079 22.9
Lexus UX 993 19.2 Lexus NX 3512 16.8 Tesla Model X 2549 11.8 Mercedes GLS-Class 795 16.8
Mercedes GLA-Class 977 18.9 Audi Q5 2720 13.0 BMW X5 1886 8.8 Cadillac Escalade 674 14.3
BMW X2 800 15.5 Acura RDX 2269 10.9 Infinti QX60 1761 8.2 Mercedes G-Class 556 11.8
Volvo XC40 478 9.3 BMW X3 2251 10.8 Acura MDX 1499 7.0 Audi Q8 453 9.6
Source: IHS
Covering First Quarter 2019 Page 4
BRAND SUMMARY
Registrations Increased for 12 Brands in Early 2019; Toyota and Honda Rank 1st and 2nd in State
Percent Change in Brand Registrations - YTD ‘19 thru March vs. YTD ‘18 California and U.S. Market Share - YTD ‘19 thru March
(Top 30 selling brands in state) (Top 15 selling brands in state)
Tesla 16.3%
Toyota
Mitsubishi 19.8% 11.9%
-100.0% -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
Percent change in registrations Market Share
BRAND REGISTRATIONS
The table above shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in California. Figures are shown for the First Quarters of 2018 and
2019, and annual totals for 2017 and 2018. The top ten ranked brands in each category are shaded yellow Source: IHS Markit.
California New Car and Light Truck Retail and Fleet Registrations - 2012 thru 2019, YTD thru Mar.
300,000
250,000
200,000
Registrations
150,000
PERCENT CHANGE:
100,000
YTD ‘19 vs. YTD ‘18 (March)
50,000
Retail cars: DOWN 7.8%
0
YTD '12 YTD '13 YTD '14 YTD '15 YTD '16 YTD '17 YTD '18 YTD '19 Retail light trucks: DOWN 2.7%
Year-to-date totals
Fleet cars: DOWN 22.0%
Retail Cars Retail Light Trucks
Fleet light trucks: UP 9.4%
Fleet Cars Fleet Light Trucks
30.0%
New vehicle
market is
6 year old or 27 percent
0.0% 366,588 larger than
newer used
3 years old or 4 to 6 years old 7 to 10 years old Older than 10 6 year old or
newer years newer used.
YTD '18 22.4% 13.5% 12.8% 51.3%
YTD '19 21.9% 15.5% 12.4% 50.3% 0 250,000 500,000
Civic is Best-Seller in State Used Vehicle Market; Rogue and RAV4 Had Largest Percentage Gains
Registrations (YTD ‘19 thru March) and Percent Change in registrations (YTD ‘19 thru March vs. YTD ‘18)
Top 20 Selling Models (6 years old or newer)
Percent change in registrations (shown as thin light blue bars)
-25.0% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 75.0%
Honda Civic
Toyota Corolla
Honda Accord
Toyota Camry
Nissan Altima
Nissan Sentra
Ford F Series #1 Civic was the best seller.
Ford Fusion
Toyota Prius
Chevrolet Silverado
Nissan Rogue
BMW 3-Series
The thick dark blue Rogue & RAV4 had the largest
Ram
bars on the graph percentage increases.
Toyota Tacoma show unit regis-
Toyota RAV4 trations (bottom
axis), and the thin
Hyundai Sonata light blue bars
Nissan Versa show the percent
change (top axis).
Volkswagen Jetta
Hyundai Elantra
Ford Explorer
-4200 0 4200 8400 12600
Data Source: IHS. Unit registrations (shown as wide dark blue bars)
12.0% 11.0%
9.9%
10.0% 8.8% 8.6%
8.0%
0.0%