Mainstreet Research Survey - federal electoral district of Oakville

About Mainstreet

With 20 years of political experience in all three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snap-
shots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, and was
the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal
election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections,
and the Alabama special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is a member of the World
Association for Public Opinion Research and meets international and Canadian publication
standards.

Methodology

The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on May 27th 2019
among a sample of 602 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in the federal electoral district
of Oakville. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR).
Respondents were interviews on landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to
represent the voting population in Oakville.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.99% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error
are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

1
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(ALL VOTERS)

13 %
1%
3%
6% 43 %
3% All Voters

31 %

LPC, Trudeau CPC, Scheer NDP, Singh Green, May

Response
PPC, Bernier Another Party Undecided

Gender Age
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
LPC, Trudeau 43.3% 39.6% 46.6% 42.7% 41.7% 43.9% 44.7%
CPC, Scheer 30.7% 37.6% 24.4% 32.2% 25.3% 33.1% 32.3%
NDP, Singh 2.6% 1.8% 3.4% 0% 4.3% 3.2% 2.6%
Green, May 6.5% 5.2% 7.6% 3% 10.5% 5.9% 6%
PPC, Bernier 3% 5% 1.2% 5% 1.6% 3.3% 2.2%
Another Party 1% 1.2% 0.8% 1.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4%
Undecided 12.9% 9.5% 16% 15.4% 15.1% 9.9% 11.8%
Unweighted Frequency 602 245 357 67 139 150 246
Weighted Frequency 602 286 316 137 157 172 137

2
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(LEANING VOTERS WITH TRUE UNDECIDED VOTERS)

1% 6%
3%
8%
3%
46 %
Leaning Voters
With True Undecided

33 %

LPC, Trudeau CPC, Scheer NDP, Singh Green, May

Response
PPC, Bernier Another Party Undecided

Gender Age
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
LPC, Trudeau 45.5% 41.1% 49.5% 44.4% 42.4% 47.1% 48.2%
CPC, Scheer 33.5% 39.7% 27.9% 36.6% 28.8% 34.3% 34.7%
NDP, Singh 2.9% 2.2% 3.4% 0% 4.3% 4% 2.6%
Green, May 7.8% 6.1% 9.3% 4.3% 11.9% 7.3% 7.1%
PPC, Bernier 3.3% 5% 1.7% 6.3% 1.6% 3.3% 2.2%
Another Party 1.3% 1.2% 1.4% 3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4%
Undecided 5.7% 4.6% 6.7% 5.4% 9.5% 3.3% 4.8%
Unweighted Frequency 602 245 357 67 139 150 246
Weighted Frequency 602 286 316 137 157 172 137

3
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(DECIDED AND LEANING VOTERS)

3% 1%
8%
3%

Decided and
48 %
Leaning Voters

35 %

LPC, Trudeau CPC, Scheer NDP, Singh

Response
Green, May PPC, Bernier Another Party

Gender Age
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
LPC, Trudeau 48.3% 43.1% 53% 47% 46.8% 48.9% 50.6%
CPC, Scheer 35.4% 41.5% 29.9% 38.6% 31.8% 35.4% 36.4%
NDP, Singh 3% 2.4% 3.7% 0% 4.8% 4.1% 2.8%
Green, May 8.3% 6.4% 10.1% 4.6% 13.2% 7.5% 7.5%
PPC, Bernier 3.5% 5.3% 1.8% 6.6% 1.7% 3.5% 2.3%
Another Party 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 3.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.4%
Unweighted Frequency 568 233 335 63 126 145 234
Weighted Frequency 568 269 299 129 148 162 129

4
Thinking about potential candidates in Oakville for the next federal elec-
tion, which candidate would you vote for if the federal election were held
today? (Data from p. 2 provide for comparison purposes)

100%

29.7% 27.1%

43.3% 45.7%
75%
LPC
CPC
Percentage

35.9% NDP
36%
50% Green

30.7% PPC
32.2%
4% Another Party
3.2%
8.9% Undecided
25% 2.6% 9.7%
2.1%
6.5% 2.4% 2.2% 3.7%
6.3% 2.4%
3%
1% 2%
1.9% 18.2%
16.8%
12.9% 9.5%
0

Leaders' Names Flynn Anand Shah

Candidate

5
Thinking about potential candidates in Oakville for the next federal elec-
tion, which candidate would you vote for if the federal election were held
today? (KEVIN FLYNN)

Gender Age
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Kevin Flynn, LPC 45.7% 39.8% 51% 44.1% 45.3% 44.5% 49.2%
Terence Young, CPC 32.2% 39.5% 25.6% 36.7% 24.2% 35% 33.6%
Che Marville, NDP 2.4% 2% 2.7% 0% 3.7% 2.6% 2.7%
David Doel, Green 6.3% 6.2% 6.4% 3.6% 11.3% 6.1% 3.6%
Jack Byrne, PPC 2% 3.3% 0.8% 1.8% 1.6% 2.7% 1.8%
Another Candidate 1.9% 2% 1.8% 3.2% 0.8% 2% 1.6%
Undecided 9.5% 7.2% 11.7% 10.5% 13.1% 7.2% 7.6%
Unweighted Frequency 602 245 357 67 139 150 246
Weighted Frequency 602 286 316 137 157 172 137

6
Thinking about potential candidates in Oakville for the next federal elec-
tion, which candidate would you vote for if the federal election were held
today? (ANITA ANAND)

Gender Age
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Anita Anand, LPC 29.7% 27.5% 31.7% 30.4% 29.3% 27.9% 31.9%
Terence Young, CPC 36% 41.7% 31% 41.4% 27.8% 38.2% 37.7%
Che Marville, NDP 3.2% 2.9% 3.5% 0% 5.4% 3.2% 3.8%
David Doel, Green 9.7% 9.2% 10% 3.2% 16.7% 12% 4.8%
Jack Byrne, PPC 2.2% 3.1% 1.4% 3.2% 2.3% 1.4% 2.2%
Another Candidate 2.4% 2.9% 2% 1.8% 4.4% 2% 1.2%
Undecided 16.8% 12.7% 20.4% 20% 14.2% 15.4% 18.4%
Unweighted Frequency 602 245 357 67 139 150 246
Weighted Frequency 602 286 316 137 157 172 137

7
Thinking about potential candidates in Oakville for the next federal elec-
tion, which candidate would you vote for if the federal election were held
today? (TAMUR SHAH)

Gender Age
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Tamur Shah, LPC 27.1% 24.4% 29.6% 27.1% 29.5% 23.7% 28.9%
Terence Young, CPC 35.9% 40.9% 31.5% 42.5% 25.6% 36.9% 40.1%
Che Marville, NDP 4% 4.6% 3.5% 3.6% 5.4% 3.2% 3.8%
David Doel, Green 8.9% 8.6% 9.2% 3.2% 13.6% 11.5% 5.6%
Jack Byrne, PPC 2.1% 3.3% 1% 1.8% 3.1% 2% 1.4%
Another Candidate 3.7% 3.9% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% 5.2% 2%
Undecided 18.2% 14.4% 21.7% 18.2% 19.3% 17.5% 18.1%
Unweighted Frequency 602 245 357 67 139 150 246
Weighted Frequency 602 286 316 137 157 172 137

8
Who would you prefer to be the candidate for the Liberal Party of Canada
in the upcoming federal election? (ONLY ASKED OF RESPONDENTS
WHO INDICATED THEY WOULD VOTE LIBERAL)

6%
21 %

All Voters

73 %

Response Anita Anand Kevin Flynn Undecided

Gender Age
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Anita Anand 5.8% 3.9% 7.4% 5.8% 1.4% 9% 6.5%
Kevin Flynn 73.3% 70.4% 75.8% 70.3% 81.1% 65.8% 76.6%
Undecided 21% 25.7% 16.7% 23.9% 17.5% 25.2% 16.9%
Unweighted Frequency 264 100 164 29 58 67 110
Weighted Frequency 264 125 139 60 69 75 60

9
Now thinking about provincial politics, if a provincial election were held
today which party would you vote for? (ALL VOTERS)

14 %

1% 28 %

9%

All Voters

15 %
33 %

PC, Doug Ford NDP, Andrea Horwath OLP, John Fraser

Response
Green, Mike Schreiner Another Party Undecided

Gender Age
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
PC, Doug Ford 27.6% 34.6% 21.4% 34.2% 20.9% 29% 27%
NDP, Andrea Horwath 15.2% 11.2% 18.7% 13% 15.5% 16.3% 15.5%
OLP, John Fraser 33.2% 31.9% 34.4% 24.7% 36.5% 33.4% 37.7%
Green, Mike Schreiner 9.1% 7.9% 10.2% 7.6% 11.1% 9.7% 7.4%
Another Party 1.4% 1.8% 1% 0% 2.1% 1.5% 1.7%
Undecided 13.5% 12.6% 14.4% 20.4% 13.8% 10% 10.7%
Unweighted Frequency 602 245 357 67 139 150 246
Weighted Frequency 602 286 316 137 157 172 137

10
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(LEANING VOTERS WITH TRUE UNDECIDED VOTERS)

8%
1%
10 % 29 %

Leaning Voters
With True Undecided

35 % 17 %

PC, Doug Ford NDP, Andrea Horwath OLP, John Fraser

Response
Green, Mike Schreiner Another Party Undecided

Gender Age
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
PC, Doug Ford 29.2% 36.9% 22.2% 35.8% 22.5% 30.4% 28.6%
NDP, Andrea Horwath 16.7% 11.5% 21.5% 15.7% 17.4% 16.9% 16.7%
OLP, John Fraser 34.9% 33.3% 36.4% 27.4% 37.9% 35.6% 38.1%
Green, Mike Schreiner 10.2% 9.4% 11% 9.3% 12.6% 10.4% 8.2%
Another Party 1.4% 1.8% 1% 0% 2.1% 1.5% 1.7%
Undecided 7.6% 7.2% 8% 11.7% 7.4% 5.3% 6.7%
Unweighted Frequency 602 245 357 67 139 150 246
Weighted Frequency 602 286 316 137 157 172 137

11
If the provincial election were held today, which party would you vote
for? (DECIDED AND LEANING VOTERS)

11 % 1%

32 %

Decided and
Leaning Voters

38 %

18 %

PC, Doug Ford NDP, Andrea Horwath OLP, John Fraser

Response
Green, Mike Schreiner Another Party

Gender Age
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
PC, Doug Ford 31.6% 39.9% 24.1% 40.5% 24.3% 32% 30.7%
NDP, Andrea Horwath 18.1% 12.3% 23.4% 17.9% 18.9% 17.9% 18%
OLP, John Fraser 37.7% 35.7% 39.6% 31.1% 40.9% 37.6% 40.8%
Green, Mike Schreiner 11.1% 10.2% 11.9% 10.5% 13.6% 11% 8.8%
Another Party 1.4% 1.9% 1% 0% 2.3% 1.6% 1.8%
Unweighted Frequency 559 229 330 59 129 142 229
Weighted Frequency 559 265 294 127 145 159 127

12
As you might have heard, the federal Liberal government has introduced
a carbon tax for Ontario to fight climate change. This new carbon tax
came into effect on April 1st. Based on what you’ve seen and heard, do
you support or oppose the new carbon tax?

8%

24 % 41 %

All Voters

9%

18 %

Strongly Support Somewhat Support Somewhat Oppose

Response
Strongly Oppose Not Sure

Gender Age
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Strongly Support 41.2% 38% 44.1% 37.6% 43.1% 41.8% 41.8%
Somewhat Support 18.1% 15.6% 20.4% 16.8% 18.8% 19.6% 16.7%
Somewhat Oppose 8.8% 9.3% 8.5% 9% 6.6% 10.2% 9.6%
Strongly Oppose 24.1% 33% 16.1% 31.2% 23% 18.1% 25.8%
Not Sure 7.8% 4.2% 11% 5.4% 8.5% 10.4% 6.1%
Unweighted Frequency 602 245 357 67 139 150 246
Weighted Frequency 602 286 316 137 157 172 137

13
Do you think the Ontario government is doing enough to create jobs for
more Ontarians, with a focus on youth in particular?

20 %

32 %

All Voters

48 %

Response Yes No Not Sure

Gender Age
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Yes 20% 26% 14.6% 28.5% 17.2% 18.7% 16.1%
No 48.3% 46.7% 49.7% 44.7% 49.7% 50.9% 47.1%
Not Sure 31.7% 27.3% 35.7% 26.8% 33% 30.4% 36.8%
Unweighted Frequency 602 245 357 67 139 150 246
Weighted Frequency 602 286 316 137 157 172 137

14