LESSON 12: EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

Outline

• Finding Exponential Probabilities

• Expected Value, Variance and Percentiles
• Applications

EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION
THE PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION
• If a random variable X is exponentially distributed with
parameter λ (the process rate, e.g. # per min) then its
probability density function is given by
f ( x ) = λe −λ x x ≥ 0
2.0
• Mean, µ = standard
deviation, σ = 1/λ
Exponential
distribution
• The probability P(X≥a) is with λ=2
obtained as follows:
P( X ≥ a ) = e −λ a 0.0
0 3 2 6

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 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION
THE PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION
• If mean, µ is given (e.g., length of time in min, hr etc.), find
the parameter λ first (see Examples 2.1, 2.2, 2.3) using
the formula: λ =1/µ

2.0

Exponential
distribution
with λ=2

0.0
0 3 3 6

EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION
Example 1.1: Let X be an exponential random variable with
λ=2. Find the following:
1. P ( X ≥ 0 .50 )

2.0

Exponential
distribution
with λ=2

0.0
0 3 4 6

2
 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION
Example 1.2: Let X be an exponential random variable with
λ=2. Find the following:
2. P ( X ≤ 2)

2.0

Exponential
distribution
with λ=2

0.0
0 3 5 6

EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION
Example 1.3: Let X be an exponential random variable with
λ=2. Find the following:
3. P(0. 50 ≤ X ≤ 2 )

2.0

Exponential
distribution
with λ=2

0.0
0 3 6 6

3
 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION
Example 1.4: Let X be an exponential random variable with
λ=2. Find the following:
4. P ( X = 2 )

2.0

Exponential
distribution
with λ=2

0.0
0 3 7 6

EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION
Example 2.1: The length of life of a certain type of electronic
tube is exponentially distributed with a mean life of 500
hours. Find the probability that a tube will last more than
800 hours.
0.3

Exponential
distribution
with λ=1/5

0.0
0 10 8 20

4
 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION
Example 2.2: The length of life of a certain type of electronic
tube is exponentially distributed with a mean life of 500
hours. Find the probability that a tube will fail within the
first 200 hours.
0.3

Exponential
distribution
with λ=1/5

0.0
0 10 9 20

EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION
Example 2.3: The length of life of a certain type of electronic
tube is exponentially distributed with a mean life of 500
hours. Find the probability that the length of life of a tube
will be between 400 and 700 hours.
0.3

Exponential
distribution
with λ=1/5

0.0
0 10 10 20

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 EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION
USING EXCEL
• Excel function EXPONDIST(a,λ,TRUE) provides the
probability P(X≤a). For example, EXPONDIST(200,1/500,
TRUE) = 0.3297

0.3
Area=0.3297

Exponential
distribution
with λ=1/5

0.0
0 2 10 11 20

Application
• Service times, inter-arrival times, etc. are usually observed
to be exponentially distributed
• If the inter-arrival times are exponentially distributed, then
number of arrivals follows Poisson distribution and vice
versa
• The exponential distribution has an interesting property
called the memory less property: Assume that the inter-
arrival time of taxi cabs are exponentially distributed and
that the probability that a taxi cab will arrive after 1 minute
is 0.8. The above probability does not change even if it is
given that a person is waiting for an hour! (See problem 8-
2)
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 READING AND EXERCISES
Lesson 12

Reading:
Section 8-2, pp. 235-239

Exercises:
8-12, 8-13, 8-14, 8-22

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