Balaji Consultancy Services

CONTENTS
Market Overview
Weekly Analysis with Fundamental and Technical Outlook
Important events of the Week.

MARKET OVERVIEW

Dollar was rangebound and volatile yesterday till ISM non manufacturing report hits the market.
ISM index fell to lowest levels since Jan 2010 to 51.4 against consensus of 55.
This trigerred fall of greenbacks amongst all the baskets of currency.
Today's release of Biege Book by Fed would be an event to watch out probablity of rate hike in September.
Now, the Rate hike expectation for September appears to be dim.
USD to remain volatile and rangebound today.
ECB is not expected to alter rates, owing to low inflation and weak economy.
Thus, Euro would be under pressure this week, after Thursday.
Crude bounced back as Saudi's minister said that Iran would be a spoiler in production freeze consensus.
AUD get beaten up due to poor GDP no.s
GBP reports to be watched out to see the impact of Brexit.
JPY GDP Q2 no. may be weak.

Trade Setup

Go Short with EURO/USD

We believe that from thursday after Draghi's meeting the EUR shall start its free fall. Recent bounce in Euro is a good opportu
CP 1.126
STOP LOSS 1.1278
Target Price 1.1155

Go short with EURO/GBP

GBP has its own set of risks, bit short term trade setup could be made with strict stop loss.
CP 0.8392
STOP LOSS 0.841
Target Price 0.8329

Go long with USD/JPY

This tradesetup to be entered only after 15 min from the time of release of the GDP data of JPY, which we expect to be lower
CP 101.34
STOP LOSS 101.05
Target Price 102

Go short with Crude Oil (Maintain Short Term Outlook Only)

Entry Range 45.11
Stop Loss 45.5
Target Price 44.5
Important Events

Wednesday, September 7, 2016

1:15
USD
FOMC Member Williams Speaks 
1:30
AUD
GDP (YoY) (Q2)
Act: 3.3% Cons: 3.4% Prev.: 3.1%
1:30
AUD
GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
Act: 0.5% Cons: 0.6% Prev.: 1.0% 
1:30
AUD
GDP Capital Expenditure (Q2)
Act: 0.0% Cons:  Prev.: -0.8% 
1:30
AUD
GDP Chain Price Index (Q2)
Act: 0.9% Cons:  Prev.: -0.2% 
1:30
AUD
GDP Final Consumption (Q2)
Act: 0.8% Cons:  Prev.: 0.8% 
5:00
JPY
Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Jul) 
Act: 0.7% Cons:  Prev.: -1.5%
5:00
JPY
Leading Index (MoM) (Jul) 
Act: -0.7% Cons:  Prev.: 0.0%
5:00
JPY
Leading Index 
Act: 100.0 Cons: 98.6 Prev.: 99.2
6:00
EUR
German Industrial Production (MoM)
(Jul)
Act: -1.5% Cons: 0.2% Prev.: 1.1% 
6:45
EUR
French Current Account (Jul)
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: -0.60B
6:45
EUR
French Exports (Jul)
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: 36.9B
6:45
EUR
French Imports (Jul)
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: 40.3B
6:45
EUR
French Trade Balance (Jul)
Act:  Cons: -3.7B Prev.: -3.4B
7:30
GBP
Halifax House Price Index (MoM)
(Aug)
Act:  Cons: -0.4% Prev.: -1.0%
7:30
GBP
Halifax House Price Index (YoY)
(Aug)
Act:  Cons: 7.0% Prev.: 8.4%
8:30
GBP
Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)
Act:  Cons: -0.2% Prev.: 0.1%
8:30
GBP
Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)
Act:  Cons: 1.9% Prev.: 1.6%
8:30
GBP
Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jul)
Act:  Cons: 1.7% Prev.: 0.9%
8:30
GBP
Manufacturing Production (MoM)
(Jul)
Act:  Cons: -0.4% Prev.: -0.3%
9:15
GBP
BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
9:35
EUR
German 10-Year Bund Auction
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: -0.090%
11:00
USD
MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: 3.67%
11:00
USD
MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: 2.8%
11:00
USD
MBA Purchase Index
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: 216.1
11:00
USD
Mortgage Market Index
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: 545.2
11:00
USD
Mortgage Refinance Index
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: 2,441.7
12:55
USD
Redbook (MoM)
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: -0.3%
12:55
USD
Redbook (YoY)
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: 0.6%
13:15
GBP
BoE Gov Carney Speaks 
13:15
GBP
Inflation Report Hearings 
14:00
GBP
NIESR GDP Estimate
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: 0.3%
14:00
USD
JOLTs Job Openings (Jul)
Act:  Cons: 5.580M Prev.: 5.624M
14:00
USD
Payrolls Benchmark (12M)
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: -206.00
14:00
USD
Payrolls Benchmark, n.s.a. (12M)
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: -199.00K
14:00
CAD
Ivey PMI n.s.a (Aug)
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: 49.4
14:00
CAD
Interest Rate Decision
Act:  Cons: 0.50% Prev.: 0.50%
14:00
CAD
Ivey PMI (Aug)
Act:  Cons: 55.4 Prev.: 57.0
18:00
USD
Beige Book
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: 
22:55
AUD
RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks 
23:01
GBP
RICS House Price Balance (Aug)
Act:  Cons: 6% Prev.: 5%
23:50
JPY
Adjusted Current Account
Act:  Cons: 1.59T Prev.: 1.65T
23:50
JPY
Bank Lending (YoY) (Aug)
Act:  Cons: 2.0% Prev.: 2.1%
23:50
JPY
Current Account n.s.a. (Jul)
Act:  Cons: 2.090T Prev.: 0.974T
23:50
JPY
Foreign Bonds Buying
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: 105.7B
23:50
JPY
Foreign Investments in Japanese
Stocks
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: -6.8B
23:50
JPY
GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
Act:  Cons: 0.0% Prev.: 0.0%
23:50
JPY
GDP (YoY) (Q2)
Act:  Cons: 0.2% Prev.: 0.2%
23:50
JPY Capital Expenditure (QoQ)
GDP
(Q2)
Act:  Cons: -0.4% Prev.: -0.4%
23:50
JPY
GDP External Demand (QoQ) (Q2)
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: -0.3%
23:50
JPY
GDP Price Index (YoY)
Act:  Cons: 0.8% Prev.: 0.8%
23:50
JPY Private Consumption (QoQ)
GDP
(Q2)
Act:  Cons:  Prev.: 0.2%
 Currency Weekly Report
(Private and Confidential)

7/9/2016

cal Outlook

good opportunity to short it.

ct to be lower