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Research

JAMA Internal Medicine | Original Investigation

Association of Long-term Exercise Training With Risk of Falls,


Fractures, Hospitalizations, and Mortality in Older Adults
A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
Philipe de Souto Barreto, PhD; Yves Rolland, MD, PhD; Bruno Vellas, MD, PhD; Mathieu Maltais, PhD

Invited Commentary
IMPORTANCE Long-term exercise benefits on prevalent adverse events in older populations, Supplemental content
such as falls, fractures, or hospitalizations, are not yet established or known.

OBJECTIVE To systematically review and investigate the association of long-term exercise


interventions (ⱖ1 year) with the risk of falls, injurious falls, multiple falls, fractures,
hospitalization, and mortality in older adults.

DATA SOURCES PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, SportDiscus,


PsychInfo, and Ageline were searched through March 2018.

STUDY SELECTION Exercise randomized clinical trials (RCTs) with intervention length
of 1 year or longer, performed among participants 60 years or older.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Two raters independently screened articles, abstracted
the data, and assessed the risk of bias. Data were combined with risk ratios (RRs) using
DerSimonian and Laird’s random-effects model (Mantel-Haenszel method).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Six binary outcomes for the risk of falls, injurious falls,
multiple falls (ⱖ2 falls), fractures, hospitalization, and mortality.

RESULTS Forty-six studies (22 709 participants) were included in the review and 40 (21 868
participants) in the meta-analyses (mean [SD] age, 73.1 [7.1] years; 15 054 [66.3%] of
participants were women). The most used exercise was a multicomponent training
(eg, aerobic plus strength plus balance); mean frequency was 3 times per week, about 50
minutes per session, at a moderate intensity. Comparator groups were often active controls.
Exercise significantly decreased the risk of falls (n = 20 RCTs; 4420 participants; RR, 0.88;
95% CI, 0.79-0.98) and injurious falls (9 RTCs; 4481 participants; RR, 0.74; 95% CI,
0.62-0.88), and tended to reduce the risk of fractures (19 RTCs; 8410 participants; RR, 0.84;
95% CI, 0.71-1.00; P = .05). Exercise did not significantly diminish the risk of multiple falls
(13 RTCs; 3060 participants), hospitalization (12 RTCs; 5639 participants), and mortality
(29 RTCs; 11 441 participants). Sensitivity analyses provided similar findings, except the
fixed-effect meta-analysis for the risk of fracture, which showed a significant effect favoring
exercisers (RR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.70-1.00; P = .047). Meta-regressions on mortality and falls
suggest that 2 to 3 times per week would be the optimal exercise frequency.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Long-term exercise is associated with a reduction in falls, Author Affiliations: Gerontopole of
injurious falls, and probably fractures in older adults, including people with cardiometabolic Toulouse, Institute of Ageing,
Toulouse University Hospital (CHU
and neurological diseases. Toulouse), Toulouse, France
(de Souto Barreto, Rolland, Vellas,
Maltais); UPS/Inserm UMR1027,
University of Toulouse III, Toulouse,
France (de Souto Barreto, Rolland,
Vellas).
Corresponding Author: Philipe
de Souto Barreto, PhD, Gérontopôle
de Toulouse, Institut
du Vieillissement, 37 Allées Jules
JAMA Intern Med. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2018.5406 Guesde, F-31000 Toulouse, France
Published online December 28, 2018. (philipebarreto81@yahoo.com.br).

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Research Original Investigation Association of Long-term Exercise With Risk of Falls, Fractures, Hospitalizations, and Mortality in Older Adults

E
xercise training is an intervention of utmost impor-
tance for older adults’ health leading to benefits on mul- Key Points
tiple systems and functions, including muscle and bone
Question What is the association of long-term (ⱖ1 year) exercise
health, the cardiometabolic system,1,2 as well as physical1,3,4 with the risk of falls, fractures, hospitalizations and death in older
and potentially cognitive (results still mixed5,6) functions. Re- adults?
cent meta-analyses of randomized clinical trials (RCT) have
Findings In this meta-analysis of 40 long-term randomized
shown that exercise reduces the number of incident falls in
clinical trials (RCTs) of 21 868 participants, exercise significantly
older adults,7-9 a major adverse event for this population. decreased the risk of being a faller and injurious faller but did not
Nevertheless, important gaps about the association of ex- significantly reduce the risk of fractures. Exercise did not diminish
ercise with decreased risk of developing serious adverse the risk of multiple falls, hospitalization, and mortality.
outcomes still remain unclear. Most studies included in
Meaning Long-term exercise, particularly moderate intensity,
meta-analyses7-9 were short- to medium-term exercise inter- multicomponent training with balance exercises, performed 2 to 3
ventions, evidencing a paucity of long-term (≥1 year) RCTs. times per week, appears to be a safe and effective intervention
Other important gaps are: a lack of evidence on exercise ef- for reducing the risk of being a faller/injurious faller in older
fects on death and hospitalization in diverse older adult popu- populations.
lations, and the best exercise prescription (ie, type, intensity,
frequency, session duration) for decreasing the risk of seri-
ous adverse events. The recent findings of the LIFE study,10 To be included in this review, studies had to meet the fol-
the largest and longest exercise trial performed to date among lowing criteria: (1) RCT design with exercise length of 1 year
older people, showed, unexpectedly, increases in both hospi- or longer (or ≥12 months or ≥48 weeks); (2) the study com-
talization and mortality among exercisers compared with con- pared the effects of at least 1 exercise intervention against a
trols (differences statistically nonsignificant), raising doubts comparator group (ie, no intervention, attention or active con-
about safety issues of exercise for older individuals. Further- trols). Studies operationalizing cointerventions were eligible
more, meta-analyses have obtained mixed results for the ef- if the sole difference between intervention and comparator was
fects of exercise in preventing fractures.2,11,12 Regarding falls, the exercise training. All kinds of intervention structure
to the best of our knowledge, no meta-analyses have investi- (eg, home-based or group-based) were eligible, with unsuper-
gated the association of long-term exercise with falls-related vised exercises being included only when a personalized ex-
outcomes, particularly multiple falls, which are common in ercise plan had been used; (3) participants had to be 60 years
older adults.13 or older at baseline or the mean population age should be 60
The objectives of this systematic review of RCTs with pre- years or older.
planned meta-analysis were to investigate the association of
long-term exercise interventions with the risk of mortality, hos- Outcome Measures
pitalization, becoming a faller, a faller with multiple falls, a faller Six binary outcomes including mortality; hospitalization: num-
with injurious falls, and sustaining a fracture. ber of individuals admitted to the hospital (eg, inpatient hos-
pitalization, ≥24-hour hospitalization); fallers: people who fell
at least once; fallers with multiple falls: people who fell at least
twice; injurious fallers: people who suffered an injurious fall
Methods (eg, fall with wound, head trauma, medical care, fracture, or
This systematic review and meta-analysis was registered in hospitalization) according to original investigators; and frac-
PROSPERO (CRD42018090757) and follows the PRISMA tures: number of people who sustained a fracture.
guidelines.14 The protocol is available in the Supplement.
Data Extraction
Search Strategy and Eligibility Criteria Two raters (P.S.B. and M.M.) made the data abstraction inde-
One author (M.M.) performed the electronic searches be- pendently using a standard data collection form specifically
tween February 20 and March 5, 2018, using a search strategy designed for this review. Divergences were solved in an in-
approved by all authors, from inception until the date of search person meeting (100% consensus reached). In case of doubts
in the following databases: PubMed, Cochrane Central Regis- or insufficient data/information reported, original investiga-
ter of Controlled Trials, SportDiscus, PsychInfo, and Ageline. tors were contacted by email.
Full search strategies are available in the Supplement. Lan- When extracting data for the meta-analysis, we priori-
guage restrictions were not applied. Two authors performed tized comparisons in which the sole difference between groups
title/abstract screening independently. After that, the full- was the exercise intervention. In studies with multiple exer-
text of potentially eligible studies was accessed by 2 authors cise groups vs a control group, we selected for the meta-
(P.S.B. and M.M.) for finally determining eligibility and, then, analysis the group with higher amount of exercise sessions
proceeding to data extraction. The reference list of previous performed.
systematic reviews7-9,12,15,16 were scrutinized. Divergences be-
tween authors on articles’ eligibility were resolved in an in- Risk of Bias
person meeting (100% consensus on articles’ eligibility was Two authors (P.S.B. and M.M.) independently coded the risk
reached). of bias in the 7 domains of the Cochrane Collaboration’s tool.17

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Association of Long-term Exercise With Risk of Falls, Fractures, Hospitalizations, and Mortality in Older Adults Original Investigation Research

Statistical Analysis
Data on death, people hospitalized, fallers, and people with Results
fractures were obtained from baseline until the end of the in-
tervention period; data from observational follow-up were not Forty-eight articles,10,13,23-68 representing 46 studies, met eligi-
used. Estimates of the outcomes were combined using the risk bility criteria and were included in the review. The flowchart for
ratio (RR). Regarding fractures, for 5 studies without data on study selection is provided in the Supplement. The Table pro-
the number of people with fractures, we assumed the num- vides the characteristics of the included RCTs. The 46 studies
ber of people with fractures was the same as the number of frac- have randomized 22 709 (median of 203 participants; range from
tures (multiple fractures representing a relatively uncom- 20 to 6420) participants and have been conducted mainly in
mon outcome, which would not severely bias our estimations); Europe (n = 15), North America (n = 13, with 11 studies in the
a sensitivity analysis removing these studies was under- United States), and Oceania (n = 10). Participants had a mean age
taken. As prespecified in the review protocol (Supplement), of 73.1 years, 66.3% were women (2 RCTs included only men45,46
we employed DerSimonian and Laird’s random-effects model18 and 11 solely included women13,27,34,37,43,48,49,53,55,56,64); mean
(with Mantel-Haenszel method). Heterogeneity was evalu- intervention length was 17 months (median, 12 months). Sixteen
ated using the I2 statistics, with an I2 greater than 50% repre- trials23,24,29,33,40,41,45,46,50-52,57,58,61,62,64 were conducted in clini-
senting substantial heterogeneity.19 Potential bias was evalu- cally specific or disease specific populations (eg, mild cognitive
ated using the Egger’s test, with P < .10 indicating substantial impairment or dementia [n = 7] and cardiac diseases [n = 4]).
asymmetry, and funnel plots. Randomized clinical trials with Thirty-five studies were parallel-group RCTs, whereas 11 were
attrition rates of more than 40% and those with low compli- cluster RCTs30-32,35,36,47,51,52,65,67,68; most of the trials involved
ance (<30%) to the exercise intervention did not enter into the community dwellers (n = 35). Two studies in which participants
primary analyses, but were added in sensitivity analyses. Trials had a baseline age of 59 years23 and 59.324 were included because
with no data on a given outcome were removed from meta- their follow-up length was among the largest (12023 and 30.124
analysis of the specific outcome. For cluster RCTs, we used ap- months, respectively), meaning that the average age increased
propriate intracluster correlation (ICC) values (from the study, to above 60 still at the beginning of the study. Two cluster RCTs
from another similar study included in the review, or from ex- were removed from primary quantitative analysis because very
ternal databases20-22) to estimate the effective sample size using few participants exercised (26%30) or a very small fraction of ex-
the design effect. If no appropriate estimate was available, we ercise sessions (24%31) were attended.
presented unadjusted estimates and ran a sensitivity analy- As for any behavioral intervention, most trials had a high
sis by removing cluster RCTs. risk of bias related to blinding participants. The risk of con-
Other sensitivity/subgroup analyses were undertaken as cealment allocation was mostly unclear (n = 24), whereas in-
prespecified in the protocol: by using a fixed-effect model when complete data (n = 15) and blinding of outcome assessors
I2 was less than 50%, by restricting the analysis to RCTs with a (n = 11) may have been an issue for several studies (Supple-
low risk of attrition bias, and by stratifying analysis according to ment).
study population (clinically specific or disease specific vs non- The most used exercise was a multicomponent training
clinically specific). We further performed analysis restricted to (multiple exercises; eg, aerobic plus strength plus balance train-
trials that have randomized more than 203 participants (median ing; 29 RCTs), followed by aerobic (8 RTCs)23,24,28,41,46,49,61,63
of study population across included RCTs), and by removing the and strength (5 RTCs)27,31,38,48,64 training (Supplement). Ex-
2 trials23,24 in which the average baseline age of participants was ercise regimen was: mean frequency of 3 times per/week,
around 59 to properly address this deviation to the protocol. about 50 minutes per session, at a moderate intensity (n = 35
When the number of studies was 10 or more, exploratory RCTs). Average compliance was about 65%. Group-based su-
metaregressions were undertaken in an attempt to find which pervised (n = 29) and a mix of group-based supervised and
aspects of the exercise regimen would be associated to the effect home-based unsupervised exercises (n = 12) were the most
size (log-transformed) of the outcomes. The following variables common format of exercise delivery. Comparator groups were
were tested: exercise frequency (3 times per week or more than often active controls, ranging from attention controls to more
3 times per week compared with twice per week or less) as well intensive interventions (eg, stent angioplasty). Thirteen trials
as effective exercise frequency (weekly frequency multiplied by had more than two study arms,26,27,31,37,38,40,48,52,56,57,62,66,67
exercise compliance: between 2-3 times per week or more than all of them with two exercise groups except two studies,27,48
3 times per week compared with less than twice per week), vol- which had three exercise groups. All exercise arms in these
ume (product of intensity and session duration: between 120 min- studies have been scrutinized qualitatively. ICC values32,60 for
utes per week and 180 minutes per week or 180 or more minutes mortality (ICC = 0.001) and fractures (ICC = 0.03) applied for
per week compared with less than 120 minutes per week), inten- cluster-RCTs performed in long-term care facilities (LTCF). No
sity (vigorous compared with moderate), and type (aerobic, other suitable ICC values were found.
strength, or other exercise type compared with multicomponent Original investigators of 28 studies were contacted; 18 re-
training); given the importance of balance for all outcomes of this sponded, and 9 provided new data and/or information.
review, we also compared multicomponent training comprising
a balance component vs all other exercise types combined. Mortality
All analyses were performed using STATA statistical soft- Thirty-nine studies10,13,23,24,27-52,54,56-58,61-65 provided available
ware (version 14, StataCorp). information on death for 19 670 participants. Among them,

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Research Original Investigation Association of Long-term Exercise With Risk of Falls, Fractures, Hospitalizations, and Mortality in Older Adults

Table. Characteristics of the Included Studies


Intervention
Source Country Study Design, Participants, Groups, and Sample Size Setting Length, mo
Belardinelli et al,23 Italy Study population: 59 years; chronic heart failure; 22% women; 2 groups: Community dwellersa 120.0
2012 exercise (n = 63), control (n = 60)
42
Barnett et al, 2003 Australia Study population: 75 years; 67% women; 2 groups: exercise (n = 83), Community dwellers 12.0
control (n = 80)
Bunout et al,25 2005b Chile Study population: 75 years; 71% women; 2 groups Community dwellers 12.0
O’Connor et al,24 2009 United States Study population: 59 years; chronic heart failure; 28% women; 2 groups: Community dwellersa 30.1
/Canada/France exercise (n = 1159), control (n = 1172)
Campbell et al,13 1997 New Zealand Study population: 84 years; 100% women; 2 groups: exercise (n = 116), Community dwellers 12.0
control (n = 117)
Dangour et al,31 2011 Chile Study population: 66 years, 68% women; 4 groups: nutrition supplement Health centers 24.0
(n = 502), nutrition supplement + exercise (n = 516), exercise
(n = 480),c control (n = 504)c
El-Khoury et al,43 2015 France Study population: 80 years; 100% women; 2 groups: exercise (n = 352), Community dwellers 24.0
control (n = 354)
Galvão et al,45 2014 Australia/New Study population: 72 years; 0% women; prostate cancer; 2 groups: Community dwellersa 12.0
Zealand exercise (n = 50), control (n = 50)
Gianoudis et al,44 2014 Australia Study population: 68 years; 73% women; 2 groups: exercise (n = 81), Community dwellers 12.0
control (n = 81)
Hambrecht et al,46 Germany Study population: 61 years; 0% women; coronary heart disease; 2 groups: Community dwellers 12.0
2004 exercise (n = 51), control (n = 50)
Hewitt et al,47 2018 Australia Study population: 86 years; 65% women; 2 groups: exercise (n = 113), Institutionalized 12.0
control (n = 108)
Karinkanta et al,48 Finland Study population: 73 years; 100% women; 4 groups: exercise (n = 37)d, Community dwellers 12.0
2007 control (n = 37)
Kemmler et al,34 2010 Germany Study population: 69 years; 100% women; 2 groups: exercise (n = 123), Community dwellers 18.0
control (n = 123)
King et al,49 2002 United States Study population: 63 years; 100% women; 2 groups: exercise (n = 51), Community dwellers 12.0
controls (n = 49)
Kovács et al,50 2013 Hungary Study population:78 years; 81% women; MCI; 2 groups: exercise Institutionalized 12.0
(n = 43), control (n = 43)
51
Lam et al, 2012 Hong Kong Study population: 78 years; 76% women; MCI; 2 groups: exercise Community dwellers 12.0
(n = 171), controls (n = 218) and institutionalized
Lam et al,52 2015 Hong Kong Study population: 76 years; 39% women; MCI; 4 groups: exercise Community dwellers 12.0
(n = 147),c cognitive (n = 145), cognitive-physical (n = 132), control
(n = 131)c
Lord et al,53 1995 Australia Study population: 72 years; 100% women; 2 groups: exercise (n = 100), Community dwellers 12.0
control (n = 97)
Lord et al,35 2003 Australia Study population: 80 years; 86% women; 2 groups: exercise (n = 280), Institutionalized 12.0
controls (n = 271)
Liu-Ambrose et al,27 Canada Study population: 70 years; 100% women; 3 groups: 2 weekly RT Community dwellers 12.0
2010b sessions (n = 52)c,e, 1 weekly RT session, balance training control
(n = 49)c,e
MacRae et al,68 1994 United States Study population: 71 years; 82% women; 2 groups: exercise (n = 49), Senior centers 12.0
control (n = 48)
36
Merom et al, 2016 Australia Study population: 78 years; 85% women; 2 groups: exercise (n = 279), Institutionalized 12.0
control (n = 251)
Messier et al,40 2013 United States Study population: 66 years; 72% women; 3 groups: exercise only Community dwellers 18.0
(n = 150), exercise + diet (n = 152)c, diet (n = 152)c
Munro et al,30 2004 United Kingdom Study population: 75.4 years; 67% women; 2 groups: exercise Community dwellers 24.0
(n = 2283), control (n = 4137)
Muscari et al,28 2010b Italy Study population: 69 years; 52% women; 2 groups: exercise (n = 60), Community dwellers 12.0
control (n = 60)
Mustata et al,41 2011 Canada Study population: 68 years; 55% women; chronic kidney disease; 2 Community dwellers 12.0
groups: exercise (n = 10), controls (n = 10)
Nowalk et al,26 2001b United States Study population: 86 years; 85% women; 3 groups: exercise (n = 37),c Institutionalized 24.0
tai-chi (n = 38), control (n = 35)
Pahor et al,54 2006 United States Study population: 77 years; 69% women, 2 groups: exercise (n = 213), Community dwellers 12.0
control (n = 211)
Pahor et al,10 2014 United States Study population: 79 years; 67% women; 2 groups: exercise (n = 818), Community dwellers 31.2
control (n = 817)
Park et al,55 2008 South Korea Study population: 68 years; 100% women; 2 groups: exercise (n = 25), Community dwellers 12.0
control (n = 25)
56 f
Patil et al, 2015 Finland Study population: 74 years, 100% women; 4 groups: exercise (n = 205), Community dwellers 24.0
control (n = 204)
Pitkälä et al,57 2013 Finland Study population: 78 years; 81% women; Alzheimer disease; 3 groups; Community dwellers 12.0
home-based (n = 70)g, group-based exercise (n = 70), control (n = 70)g

(continued)

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Association of Long-term Exercise With Risk of Falls, Fractures, Hospitalizations, and Mortality in Older Adults Original Investigation Research

Table. Characteristics of the Included Studies (continued)


Intervention
Source Country Study Design, Participants, Groups, and Sample Size Setting Length, mo
Prescott et al,58 2008 Denmark Study population: 68 years; 21% women; chronic heart failure; 2 groups: Community dwellers 14.0
exercise (n = 36), control (n = 30)
Reinsch et al,67 1992 United States Study population: 75 years, 80% women; 4 groups: exercisec (n = 57), Community dwellers 12.0
cognitive (n = 51), exercise + cognitive (n = 72), controls (n = 50)c
Rejeski et al,38 2017 United States Study population: 67 years, 71% women; overweight/obesity; 3 groups: Community dwellers 18.0
WL+aerobic (n = 86), WL+RT (n = 81)d, controls (n = 82)d
Rolland et al,33 2007 France Study population: 83 years; 75% women; Alzheimer disease; 2 groups: Institutionalized 12.0
exercise (n = 67), controls (n = 67)
Sherrington et al,39 Australia Study population: 81 years; 74% women; 2 groups: exercise (n = 171), Community dwellers 12.0
2014 controls (n = 169)
Suzuki et al,29 2012b Japan Study population: 76 years; 46% women; MCI; 2 groups: exercise Community dwellers 12.0
(n = 25), controls (n = 25)
Underwood et al,32 United Kingdom Study population: 87 years; 76% women; 2 groups: exercise (n = 398), Institutionalized 12.0
2013 controls (n = 493)
van Uffelen et al61 Netherlands Study population: 75 years; 37% women; MCI; 2 groups: exercise Community dwellers 12.0
2008 (n = 86), controls (n = 93)
62
Villareal et al, 2011 United States Study population: 70 years; 63% women; Obese; 4 groups: diet (n = 26), Community dwellers 12.0
exercise (n = 26)c, diet + exercise (n = 28), controls (n = 27)c
Von Stengel et al,37 Germany Study population: 69 years; 100% women; 3 groups: exercise + Community dwellers 18.0
2011 whole-body vibration (n = 50), exercise (n = 50)c, controls (n = 51)c
63
Voukelatos et al, Australia Study population: 73 years; 74% women; 2 groups: exercise (n = 192), Community dwellers 12.0
2015 controls (n = 194)
Winters-Stone et al,64 United States Study population: 62 years; 100% women; breast cancer survivors; Community dwellers 12.0
2011b 2 groups: exercise (n = 52), controls (n = 54)
Wolf et al,65 2003 United States Study population 81 years; 86% women; 2 groups: exercise (n = 158), Institutionalized 12.0
controls (n = 153)
Woo et al,66 2007 Hong Kong Study population: 69 years; 50% women; 3 groups: exercise (n = 60),d Community dwellers 12.0
controls (n = 60), Tai Chi (n = 60)
d
Abbreviations: MCI, mild cognitive impairment; RT, resistance training; We selected the exercise group with the highest attendance.
WL, weight loss. e
We selected the exercise group with highest frequency.
a
Study setting was not clearly mentioned in this study. We assume that these f
We used data from combined exercise groups (exercise alone and exercise
are community dwellers. plus vitamin D supplementation) vs combined nonexercise groups (vitamin D
b
No data available for the quantitative analysis (not usable data or no event supplementation and placebo) because original investigators indicated no
occurring in both exercisers and controls), but the articles were included in the interaction was found between the use of vitamin D and exercise.
qualitative analysis. g
We selected the home-based exercise group instead of the group-base
c
These study groups were selected for the meta-analyses. exercise group because the former had higher exercise adherence.

8 studies27-29,40,41,46,62,64 had no deaths during the trial. Hospitalization


Twenty-nine RCTs 10,13,23,24,32-39,42-45,47-52,54,56-58,61,63,65 Fourteen studies10,23,24,30,32,33,38,40,41,46,47,50,54,57 had investigated
were included in the primary analysis (2 excluded owing hospitalization, but 1 RCT32 had no usable data on the number
to low compliance),30,31 totaling 11 441 participants in the of people hospitalized; in this trial, exercisers and controls did
model; 406 of 5677 (7.1%) and 453 of 5764 (7.9%) people not differ in terms of mean hospitalizations (0.87 vs 0.74, respec-
died in the exercise and control groups, respectively. tively). From the remaining thirteen studies (12 059 participants),
Figure 1A10,13,23,24,32-35,37-39,42-45,47-52,54,56-58,61,63,65 displays the 12 (5639 participants) entered into the primary analysis (1 exclu-
forest plot of the effects of exercise on mortality. Exercise had sion owing to low compliance30): 1242 of 2822 (44%) and 1257
no effects on mortality (P = .51). Heterogeneity was low of 2817 (44.6%) people have been hospitalized in the exercise and
(I2 = 0%) and Egger’s test suggested no important asymme- control groups, respectively. Figure 1B23,24,33,38,40,41,46,47,50,54,57,59
try (P = .76). The funnel plot (Supplement) suggested the pres- shows that exercise has not reduced the risk of being hospital-
ence of some bias, with small studies presenting inflated RRs ized (P = .51), but heterogeneity was substantial (I2 = 59.2%). Even
(exercisers at increased risk of death). All sensitivity analyses though the Egger’s test (P = .39) did not have evidence of small
provided similar results (Supplement), except analysis re- study effects, the funnel plot (Supplement) showed some asym-
stricted to clinically specific or disease-specific populations, metry, with small studies having exaggerated large RR (increased
which found that exercise tended to reduce the risk of mor- risk of hospitalization among exercisers). Sensitivity and sub-
tality (10 RCTs; RR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.49-1.00; P = .05; I2 = 15%). group analyses (Supplement) provided unchanged nonsignifi-
Meta-regressions found associations for exercise frequency of cant findings. All meta-regressions provided nonsignificant
3 times per week compared with 2 or fewer times per week associations of exercise variables with the risk of being hospital-
(exp[b], 0.42; standard error [SE], 0.14; P = .01) and effective ized (Supplement).
frequency of between 2 and 3 times per week compared with
fewer than 2 times per week (exp[b], 0.35; SE, 0.15; P = .03) Fallers and Fallers With Multiple Falls
with a reduced mortality risk. All the other meta-regressions Twenty-eight studies13,25,26,31,33-44,47,48,50,53,55-57,63,65-68 inves-
found nonsignificant associations. tigated falls; 7 had no usable information on the number of

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Research Original Investigation Association of Long-term Exercise With Risk of Falls, Fractures, Hospitalizations, and Mortality in Older Adults

Figure 1. Association of Exercise on the Risk of Mortality and Hospitalization

A Mortality

Favors Favors Weight,


Study RR (95% CI) Exercise Control %
Belardinelli et al,23 2012 0.38 (0.13-1.15) 1.26
Barnett et al,42 2003 0.14 (0.01-2.63) 0.18
O’Connor et al,24 2009 0.96 (0.80-1.16) 46.50
Campbell et al,13 1997 0.50 (0.09-2.70) 0.55
El−Khoury et al,43 2015 0.84 (0.26-2.72) 1.11
Galvão et al,45 2014 3.00 (0.13-71.92) 0.15
Gianoudis et al,44 2014 1.00 (0.06-15.72) 0.20
Hewitt et al,47 2018 1.02 (0.52-2.03) 3.30
Karinkanta et al,48 2007 0.33 (0.01-7.93) 0.15
Kemmler et al,34 2010 0.33 (0.01-8.10) 0.15
King et al,49 2002 0.32 (0.01-7.68) 0.15
Kovács et al,50 2013 0.40 (0.14-1.17) 1.33
Lam et al,51 2012 0.64 (0.06-7.05) 0.27
Lam et al,52 2015 0.30 (0.03- 2.82) 0.30
Lord et al,35 2003 4.84 (0.55-42.33) 0.33
Merom et al,63 2015 1.36 (0.22-8.23) 0.48
Pahor et al,54 2006 0.99 (0.14-6.97) 0.40
Pahor et al,10 2014/Gill et al,59 2016 1.14 (0.76-1.71) 9.50
Patil et al,56 2015 0.11 (0.01-2.04) 0.18
Pitkälä et al,57 2013 0.25 (0.06-1.14) 0.67
Prescott et al,58 2008 0.42 (0.08-2.12) 0.58
Rejeski et al,38 2017 0.34 (0.01-8.16) 0.15
Rolland et al,33 2007 0.88 (0.34-2.28) 1.69
Sherrington et al,39 2014 1.10 (0.46-2.63) 2.01
Underwood et al,32 2013 1.06 (0.84-1.35) 27.50
Van Uffelen et al,61 2008 0.36 (0.01-8.72) 0.15
von Stengel et al,37 2011 0.34 (0.01-8.15) 0.15
Voukelatos et al,63 2015 9.09 (0.49-167.75) 0.18
Wolf et al,65 2003 0.97 (0.14-6.86) 0.40
Overall effect: I2 = 0% (P = .68) 0.96 (0.85-1.09) 100.00

0.01 0.1 1 10 100


RR (95% CI)

B Hospitalization
Favors Favors Weight,
Study RR (95% CI) Exercise Control %
Belardinelli et al,23 2012 0.30 (0.15-0.62) 4.87
O’Connor et al,24 2009 0.97 (0.91-1.03) 29.99
Hambrecht et al,46 2004 0.16 (0.02-1.31) 0.66
Hewitt et al,47 2018 0.64 (0.27-1.50) 3.56
Kovács et al,50 2013 2.00 (0.19-21.21) 0.52
Messier et al,40 2013 8.54 (0.46-157.06) 0.34
Mustata et al,41 2011 0.33 (0.02-7.32) 0.30
Pahor et al,54 2006 0.99 (0.68-1.44) 12.62
Pahor et al,10 2014/Gill et al,59 2016 1.10 (0.99-1.22) 27.92
Pitkala et al,57 2013 0.78 (0.55-1.12) 13.30
Rejeski et al,38 2017 3.04 (0.13-73.46) 0.29
Rolland et al,33 2007 1.82 (0.95-3.49) 5.63
Overall effect: I2 = 59.2% (P = .005) 0.94 (0.80-1.12) 100.00
Association of exercise with risk of
0.01 0.1 1 10 100 mortality (A) and hospitalization (B).
RR (95% CI) Weights are from random effects
analysis.

fallers,25,26,33,34,36-38 with 5 studies finding nonsignificant dif- RCTs13,35,39-44,47,48,50,53,55-57,63,65-68; 1 excluded31 owing to low
ferences in number of falls across study groups, 134 showing compliance), 951 of 2207 (43.1%) and 1066 of 2213 (48.2%) be-
significant effects favoring the exercise group, and 1 having came a faller in the exercise and control groups, respectively.
no event across groups.38 Twenty-one studies contributed in- As shown in Figure 2A,13,35,39-44,47,48,50,53,55-57,63,65-68 exercis-
formation on the number of fallers for 5220 participants. ers had a reduced risk of 12% to become a faller compared with
Of the 4420 people included in the primary analysis (20 controls (P = .02); heterogeneity was moderate (I2 = 50.7%).

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Association of Long-term Exercise With Risk of Falls, Fractures, Hospitalizations, and Mortality in Older Adults Original Investigation Research

Figure 2. Association of Exercise on the Risk of Becoming a Faller and a Faller With Multiple Falls

A Faller

Favors Favors Weight,


Study RR (95% CI) Exercise Control %
Barnett et al,42 2003 0.71 (0.49-1.04) 4.68
Campbell et al,13 1997 0.86 (0.66-1.12) 7.04
El−Khoury et al,43 2015 0.86 (0.75-0.97) 10.86
Gianoudis et al,44 2014 1.16 (0.75-1.80) 3.87
Hewitt et al,47 2018 0.65 (0.51-0.84) 7.47
Karinkanta et al,48 2007 0.88 (0.35- 2.17) 1.17
Kovács et al,50 2013 0.75 (0.49-1.15) 3.97
Lord et al,53 1995 0.99 (0.65-1.50) 4.16
Lord et al,35 2003 0.90 (0.74-1.09) 8.85
MacRae et al,68 1994 0.79 (0.42-1.49) 2.20
Messier et al,40 2013 3.79 (0.43-33.50) 0.22
Mustata et al,41 2011 0.20 (0.01-3.70) 0.12
Park et al,55 2008 0.80 (0.24-2.64) 0.70
Patil et al,56 2015 0.99 (0.87-1.13) 10.72
Pitkälä et al,57 2013 0.83 (0.58-1.19) 4.93
Reinsch et al,67 1992 1.14 (0.68-1.88) 3.12
Sherrington et al,39 2014 1.38 (1.11-1.73) 8.10
Voukelatos et al,63 2015 0.90 (0.67-1.20) 6.45
Wolf et al,65 2003 0.79 (0.64-0.98) 8.21
Woo et al,66 2007 0.48 (0.29-0.80) 3.16
Overall effect: I2 = 50.7% (P = .005) 0.88 (0.79-0.98) 100.00

0.01 0.1 1 10 100


RR (95% CI)

B Multiple faller
Favors Favors Weight,
Study RR (95% CI) Exercise Control %
Barnett et al,42 2003 0.43 (0.20-0.93) 5.83
Campbell et al,13 1997 0.65 (0.41-1.05) 9.58
Gianoudis et al,44 2014 2.17 (0.87-5.42) 4.61
Hewitt et al,47 2018 0.52 (0.35-0.77) 10.76
Karinkanta et al,48 2007 0.25 (0.03-2.13) 1.11
Kovács et al,50 2013 0.67 (0.24-1.88) 3.87
Lord et al,53 1995 0.84 (0.36-1.94) 5.19
Lord et al,35 2003 0.73 (0.50-1.05) 11.20
Patil et al,56 2015 1.06 (0.86-1.31) 13.88
Reinsch et al,67 1992 1.75 (0.64-4.79) 4.05
Sherrington et al,39 2014 1.58 (1.01-2.49) 9.87
Voukelatos et al,63 2015 1.01 (0.62-1.66) 9.20
Wolf et al,66 2003 0.76 (0.52-1.13) 10.85
Overall effect: I2 = 60.2% (P = .003) 0.86 (0.68-1.08) 100.00
Association of exercise with risk of
0.01 0.1 1 10 100 becoming a faller (A) and becoming a
RR (95% CI) multiple faller (B). Weights are from
random effects analysis.

Although the Egger’s test did not evidence small study ef- For fallers of multiple falls, 13 studies (3060
fects (P = .92), the funnel plot (Supplement) showed some participants)13,35,39,42,44,47,48,50,53,56,63,65,67 composed the primary
asymmetry, with small studies having exaggeratedly large RRs analysis: 329 of 1526 (21.5%) and 374 of 1534 (24.4%) individu-
(increased risk to be a faller in the exercise group). Sensitivity als have fallen at least twice in the exercise and control
and subgroup analyses (Supplement) provided similar find- groups, respectively. Exercise had no significant effect
ings, with RRs for exercisers varying from 0.81 to 0.91, even if (Figure 2B)13,35,39,42,44,47,48,50,53,56,63,65,67 in decreasing the risk
most of them did not reach statistical significance. All meta- of being a faller with multiple falls (P = .20); heterogeneity was
regressions provided nonsignificant associations, except that moderate (I2 = 60.2%). Egger’s test did not find small study ef-
exercise frequency (exp[b], 1.35; SE, 0.19; P = .05) as well as fects (P = .96), but the funnel plot (Supplement) showed that
effective frequency (exp[b], 1.60; SE, 0.25; P = .01) more than small studies had inflated RRs (increased risk to be a multiple
3 times per week were associated with increased risk of be- faller in the exercise group). Sensitivity analysis provided simi-
coming a faller. lar results. Meta-regressions found no significant associations.

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Research Original Investigation Association of Long-term Exercise With Risk of Falls, Fractures, Hospitalizations, and Mortality in Older Adults

Figure 3. Association of Exercise on the Risk of Becoming an Injurious Faller and Sustaining a Fracture

A Injurious falls

Favors Favors Weight,


Study RR (95% CI) Exercise Control %
Barnett et al,42 2003 0.77 (0.48-1.21) 10.08
Campbell et al,13 1997 0.67 (0.45-1.00) 12.08
El−Khoury et al,43 2015 0.90 (0.78-1.05) 26.83
Hewitt et al,47 2018 0.58 (0.42-0.81) 14.89
MacRae et al,68 1994 0.16 (0.01-2.92) 0.35
Pahor et al,10 2014/Gill et al,59 2016 0.89 (0.66-1.20) 16.91
Patil et al,56 2015 0.51 (0.31-0.84) 8.80
Pitkälä et al,57 2013 0.65 (0.39-1.09) 8.53
Reinsch et al,67 1992 1.46 (0.37-5.81) 1.52
Overall effect: I2 = 40.2% (P =.10) 0.74 (0.62-0.88) 100.00

0.01 0.1 1 10 100


RR (95% CI)

B Fractures
Favors Favors Weight,
Study RR (95% CI) Exercise Control %
Belardinelli et al,23 2012 0.19 (0.01-3.89) 0.34
O’Connor et al,24 2009 0.60 (0.32-1.11) 8.13
El−Khoury et al,43 2015 0.88 (0.62-1.25) 24.39
Gianoudis et al,44 2014 3.00 (0.12-72.57) 0.30
Hewitt et al,47 2018 0.80 (0.20-3.11) 1.65
Karinkanta et al,48 2007 1.00 (0.15-6.73) 0.84
Kemmler et al,34 2010 0.49 (0.19-1.25) 3.42
Kovács et al,50 2013 3.00 (0.13-71.56) 0.30
Lam et al,51 2012 1.27 (0.06-28.95) 0.31
Pahor et al,10 2014/Gil et al,59 2016 0.87 (0.63-1.19) 30.74
Patil et al,56 2015 0.66 (0.28-1.59) 4.00
Pitkälä et al,57 2013 1.00 (0.26-3.84) 1.69
Reinsch et al,67 1992 0.45 (0.04-4.78) 0.54
Rolland et al,33 2007 2.50 (0.50-12.44) 1.19
Sherrington et al,39 2014 0.92 (0.46-1.85) 6.29
Underwood et al,32 2013 1.05 (0.63-1.74) 11.79
Villareal et al,62 2011 0.52 (0.05-5.39) 0.56
von Stengel et al,37 2011 0.58 (0.18-1.87) 2.25
Wolf et al,66 2003 0.78 (0.17-3.67) 1.27
Overall effect: I2 = 0% (P =.97) 0.84 (0.71-1.00) 100.00
Association of exercise with risk of
0.01 0.1 1 10 100 becoming an injurious faller (A) and
RR (95% CI) sustaining a fracture (B). Weights are
from random effects analysis.

Injurious Fallers sensitivity and subgroup analyses (Supplement) provided un-


Fourteen RCTs13,37-43,47,56,57,59,67,68 provided information on in- changed results (except analysis restricted to disease-specific
jurious falls, with 2 having no usable data for meta-analysis. These population; 1 RCT), with significant RRs favoring exercisers
2 studies found mixed results, with 1 showing more falls39 and (range, 0.74-0.79). All 9 studies included in the primary analy-
the other37 reporting an average number of falls lower in exer- sis have operationalized a moderate-intensity, multicomponent
cisers compared with controls. Twelve RCTs gave data for 4972 training comprising balance exercises.
participants, with 3 trials38,40,41 having no injurious fallers. Nine
studies (n = 4481)13,42,43,47,56,57,59,67,68 composed the primary Fractures
analysis, with 370 of 2192 (16.9%) and 471 of 2289 (20.6%) inju- Twenty-three RCTs10,23,24,31-34,37-41,43,44,47,48,50,51,56,57,62,65,67
rious fallers in the exercise and control groups, respectively. As had information on fractures for 9701 individuals. Nineteen
displayed in Figure 3A,13,42,43,47,56,57,59,67,68 exercisers had a re- trials10,23,24,32-34,37,39,43,44,47,48,50,51,56,57,62,65,67 (no events oc-
duced risk of 26% to becoming injurious fallers compared with curred in 3 trials38,40,41 and 1 study was excluded owing to low
controls (P = .001); heterogeneity was moderate, but not substan- compliance31) were entered into the primary analysis (8410 par-
tial (I2 = 40%). Egger’s test (P = .22) and the funnel plot (Supple- ticipants): 221 of 4138 (5.3%) and 270 of 4272 (6.3%) people in
ment) did not evidence any substantial asymmetry, even if there the exercise and control groups, respectively, have sustained
was a lack of small-to-medium scale studies collecting informa- a fracture. Figure 3B10,23,24,32-34,37,39,43,44,47,48,50,51,56,57,62,65,67
tion on injurious falls (suggesting potential publication bias). All shows that exercise was not effective in reducing the number

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Association of Long-term Exercise With Risk of Falls, Fractures, Hospitalizations, and Mortality in Older Adults Original Investigation Research

of fractures (P = .054). Heterogeneity was low (I2 = 0%), and geneity across studies and asymmetry (small study effects and
the Egger’s test (P = .34) and funnel plot (Supplement) did not publication bias), alongside the positive results from the fixed
evidence any substantial asymmetry. Sensitivity analysis using effect, suggest that long-term exercise might lead to a reduction
a fixed-effect model found a significant effect of exercise for in the risk of fractures. Even though we overcame a major issue
reducing the number of people with fractures by 16% (RR, 0.84; of previous meta-analyses,2,11,12,16,69 which have included only
95% CI, 0.70-1.00; P = .047). Excluding studies for which we a small number of studies and participants, analysis incorporat-
assumed the number of fractures was equivalent to the num- ing data from future well-conducted long-term RCTs is still
ber of people sustaining a fracture provided similar results needed before solid conclusions can be drawn on the protective
(RR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.71-1.03; P = .10). All the other analysis effects of exercise against fractures in older adults. To our knowl-
(Supplement) provided similar findings (favoring exercisers edge, our study is the largest meta-analysis ever done on the as-
without reaching statistical significance). Meta-regressions sociation of long-term exercise with mortality and the first one
found no significant association of exercise-related variables reporting about the association of exercise with hospitalization
with this outcome. in older populations. Exercise had no statistically significant as-
sociation with mortality or hospitalizations, which corroborates
the mortality findings of Guirguis-Blake et al69; this may
mean that mortality and hospitalizations are difficult-to-change
Discussion outcomes, probably because they are determined by multidimen-
This systematic review and meta-analysis showed that long- sional parameters that may be beyond the scope of exercise-
term exercise had modest but significant association with re- induced benefits. Lack of power may also have affected our re-
duced risk of becoming a faller and an injurious faller, but not sults for mortality. Importantly, exercise tended to decrease
a faller with multiple falls, in older adults. Moreover, exercise mortality risk in clinical populations (mostly people with cog-
was associated with a nonsignificant reduction in the risk of nitive decline or cardiac disease), which reinforces the role of ex-
sustaining a fracture. Exercise benefits occurred without in- ercise as a core therapeutic element for treating prevalent dis-
creasing the risk of mortality and hospitalization. eases in older people.
This is the first meta-analysis focusing on the benefits of long- Meta-regressions found that vigorous-intensity is as safe
term exercise (≥1 year), which may potentially lead to longer-term as moderate-intensity exercise. Exercise frequency of be-
positive effects, against major adverse events in older adult popu- tween twice and thrice a week was associated with decreased
lations. Our findings corroborate the results of recent meta- mortality, whereas more than 3 times per week was associ-
analyses focusing on falls that showed exercise (any interven- ated with increased risk of being a faller; therefore, the best
tion length) benefited several fall-related outcomes.7-9,16,69 The exercise frequency seems to be 2 to 3 times per week, lower
magnitude of associations for the risk of becoming a faller in frequencies probably resulting in less effective outcomes
our study (RR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.80-0.98) was small but consistent whereas higher frequencies would augment the risk of ad-
with those (RR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.81-0.97 and RR, 0.83; 95% CI, verse events. The association between exercise frequency and
0.70-0.99) recently reported by Guirguis-Blake et al69 and Tricco risk of becoming faller might be dependent on the fall-related
et al,16 respectively; the similarities in the findings across these vulnerability of the population, with higher risks in more vul-
meta-analyses represents compelling evidence of the positive nerable participants70; indeed, among studies with exercise
effects of exercise against fall-related outcomes because in the frequency of 4 or more times per week, whereas Sherrington
present work we have used different eligibility criteria (particu- et al39 showed a higher risk of being a faller in the exercise group
larly regarding intervention length ≥1 year), leading, then, to the in people at increased risk of falling (mean age about 81 years,
inclusion of different studies. Furthermore, our study further ex- about 70% had fallen in the past 12 months), Kemmler et al34
tends current knowledge by examining for the first time the as- found that exercise reduced fall rates in a population at lower
sociation of exercise with the risk of being a faller with multiple risk for falls (young women aged on average 69 years) and
falls: we did not evidence a positive association of exercise with Von Stengel et al37 found a trend in fall rates favoring exercis-
this outcome. However, multiple falls were not reported in some ers in a similar low-risk population. It is possible that the dose-
of the largest, well-conducted original studies (because it was not response idea implying that “more exercise is always better”
an endpoint of those RCTs) that provided data on fallers and in- might not fully apply for the most vulnerable older adults. The
jurious fallers,43,59 resulting in a small number of participants in potential mechanisms involved require further investiga-
the analysis; this issue, alongside the asymmetry found in the tion, but it could be related to overtraining: excessive exer-
funnel plot, suggest publication bias could have affected estima- cise leads to diminished immunity and energy metabolism ac-
tions. For injurious fallers, we provide herein the most compre- cording with animal models71 and is associated with reduced
hensive evidence on the topic, gathering information from calorie intake, worse sleep, and negative psychological pat-
more than 4000 people in 9 RCTs, going beyond previous terns in young and middle-aged adults.72 Our findings on the
meta-analyses16,43,69; we consistently (across sensitivity and sub- best exercise frequency, alongside the observation that all RCTs
group analysis) found that exercise decreased the risk of injuri- included in the injurious falls analysis had a similar exercise
ous falls by about 26%. Regarding fractures, our study contrib- structure, suggests that the best exercise regimen for protect-
utes to this still not well-established field by showing that exercise ing older people against diverse adverse events would be mod-
seems to protect against fractures; although the primary find- erate-intensity, multicomponent training comprising bal-
ing was not statistically significant, the absence of both hetero- ance exercises, performed 2 to 3 times per week; a session

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Research Original Investigation Association of Long-term Exercise With Risk of Falls, Fractures, Hospitalizations, and Mortality in Older Adults

duration of 30 to 60 minutes (average of 50 minutes, accord- people with Alzheimer disease to overall healthy partici-
ing to studies on injurious falls analysis) should be safe and pants), but the small number of studies for most outcomes
effective. prevented us from performing stringent subgroup analysis.
In an attempt to reduce such a bias, we performed subgroup
Limitations analyses separately for populations with and without clini-
This review has limitations. First, several studies have not cally and disease-specific profiles.
clearly reported exercise adherence, which impeded us to
calculate the exact exercise volume performed by partici-
pants. Second, for examining the effects of long-term exer-
cise, we arbitrarily established the 1-year length as the mini-
Conclusions
mum intervention follow-up, which could lead to losing Exercise is associated with a modest decrease in the risk of be-
important studies that employed shorter follow-ups. A lon- coming a faller, an injurious faller, and potentially sustaining
ger follow-up length would probably result in more precise a fracture in older adults. Exercise should be performed 2 to 3
data, particularly on less frequent events such as fractures, times per week. Studies showing positive effects of exercise
but it would have undermined the feasibility of the meta- for reducing the risk of becoming an injurious faller opera-
analysis by reducing the number of eligible studies to 13. tionalized moderate intensity, multicomponent training with
Third, owing to the several analyses performed, multiplicity balance exercises (eg, balance, strength training for the lower
may have elevated the chances of type I error. Finally, a high limbs, and aerobic exercise [eg, walking]), for about 50 min-
heterogeneity in terms of study population was found (from utes per session.

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