JK Lakshmi Cement (JKLC IN)

Rating: HOLD | CMP: Rs393 | TP: Rs373

May 28, 2019 Strong volume growth negates higher costs

Q4FY19 Result Update JK Lakshmi Cement (JKLC) reported Q4FY19 earnings marginally above our
estimates due to higher than expected volume growth offset by high raw
☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target |  Reco material costs. Volume grew sharply by 32% YoY in Q4FY19 on the back of
Change in Estimates low base (volume de-grew by 2.5% YoY in Q4FY18).
Current Previous
FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E The price outlook in its key markets (North and East) remained firm driven by
Rating HOLD HOLD recent price hike however continuous capacity addition, intense competition
Target Price 373 320
Sales (Rs. m) 41,186 42,765 39,600 41,530 and revival of capacities under distress would put pressure on prices going
% Chng. 4.0 3.0 forward. To factor the increased prices and volume, we upgraded our EBITDA
EBITDA (Rs. m) 4,894 5,431 4,856 5,171
% Chng. 0.8 5.0 estimates by 0.8%/5% for FY20e/FY21e. We expect margins to remain under
EPS (Rs.) 13.1 18.0 12.8 16.1
pressure with EBITDA/t at Rs485 in FY20e despite cost savings from
% Chng. 2.2 11.6
investments made on CPP, WHR and 0.8mtpa grinding unit in Odisha. Stock
has rallied ~13%+ in the past two months and we expect limited upside from
Key Financials
current valuations. Hence, we maintain Hold with TP of Rs373 (earlier Rs320),
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Sales (Rs. m) 34,122 38,823 41,186 42,765 EV/EBITDA of 9.5x FY21e.
EBITDA (Rs. m) 4,114 4,150 4,894 5,431
Margin (%) 12.1 10.7 11.9 12.7  Strong volume growth negates higher than expected costs: JKLC’s sales
PAT (Rs. m) 840 796 1,544 2,114
EPS (Rs.) 7.1 6.8 13.1 18.0
volumes rose sharply by 31.7% YoY to 2.3mn (PLe:2.3mn) tonnes (t) due to
Gr. (%) 2.4 (5.2) 94.1 36.9 weak base (volume degrew by 2.5% YoY in Q4FY18 largely on account of sand
DPS (Rs.) 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0
Yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 shortage in north region). Realisation/t (net of freight) fell 0.3% QoQ/Rs10
RoE (%) 5.9 5.3 9.7 12.0 (+3.3% YoY/Rs97) to Rs3,050 (PLe:Rs3,060). Cost/t (net of freight) rose 4%
RoCE (%) 6.6 7.5 9.7 10.5
EV/Sales (x) 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.3 YoY/Rs104 to Rs2,604 above our estimates of Rs2,582) due to higher RM cost
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.1 13.4 11.8 10.0
(due to purchase of clinker) partially offset by low other expenses. Impacted by
PE (x) 55.1 58.1 30.0 21.9
P/BV (x) 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.5 steep rise in costs, EBITDA/t fell 1.6% YoY to Rs447 (PLe:Rs478). Offset by
volume growth, EBITDA rose 30% YoY to Rs1.31mn (PLe:Rs1.28bn). Adj PAT

Key Data JKLC.BO | JKLC IN arrived above our estimate at Rs433mn (PLe:Rs360mn), up by 28% YoY.
52-W High / Low Rs.396 / Rs.250
Sensex / Nifty 39,750 / 11,929
Market Cap Rs.46bn/ $ 663m  Key highlights of earnings con-call: 1) Subdued demand in the first two
Shares Outstanding 118m months of FY20e due to elections; Demand from Odisha impacted due to
3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.71.46m
cyclone and it will take ~1 month to normalise 2) North and East (except
Chhattisgarh) region witnessed Rs30/bag QoQ price hike in Q1; Chhattisgarh
Shareholding Pattern (%)
prices remained flat QoQ however expects prices will improve 3) Volume
Promoter’s 45.94
Foreign 9.03 growth guidance for FY20e at 8-9% YoY (13.4% in FY19) led by Odisha
Domestic Institution 20.42
grinding unit 4) 0.8mtpa grinding unit at Odisha delayed by two months due to
Public & Others 24.61
Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) - cyclone and would be commissioned in end of Q2FY20e 5) 20MW CPP at Durg
plant to commission by Q1FY20e 6) Prepay Rs2bn in FY19; will prepay
Stock Performance (%) Rs2.8bn in FY20e 7) Standalone/Consolidated gross debt fell 15.8%/12.6%
1M 6M 12M QoQ to Rs16bn/Rs21.5bn; 8) Udaipur Cement works’ (UCWL-Wholly owned
Absolute 6.0 48.5 5.9
Relative 4.1 33.4 (6.3)
subsidiary) to become EBITDA and PBT positive by FY20e 9) Capex guidance
of Rs0.7bn-0.75bn for FY20e (spent Rs0.4bn/Rs2bn in Q4FY19/FY19) 10)
Trade/Non trade mix at 55%/45% (70%/30% in Q3FY19)
Kamlesh Bagmar
kamleshbagmar@plindia.com | 91-22-66322237
Amit Khimesra
amitkhimesra@plindia.com | 91-22-66322244

May 28, 2019 1

 JK Lakshmi Cement

Q4FY19 Result Overview (Rs mn)

Y/e March Q4FY19 Q4FY18 YoY gr. (%) Q3FY19 FY19 FY18 YoY gr. (%)
Net Sales 11,725 8,970 30.7 9,350 38,823 34,122 13.8
Raw Material 3,392 1,952 73.8 2,205 9,687 7,784 24.5
% of Net Sales 28.9 21.8 23.6 25.0 22.8
Staff Costs 654 607 7.7 655 2,599 2,350 10.6
% of Net Sales 5.6 6.8 7.0 6.7 6.9
Power & Fuel 2,563 2,194 16.8 2,233 9,198 7,959 15.6
% of Net Sales 21.9 24.5 23.9 23.7 23.3
Freight and selling expenses 2,759 2,378 16.0 2,296 9,533 8,726 9.3
% of Net Sales 23.5 26.5 24.6 24.6 25.6
Other Expenses 1,044 826 26.3 978 3,656 3,190 14.6
% of Net Sales 8.9 9.2 10.5 9.4 9.3
Total Expenditure 10,412 7,957 30.9 8,367 34,673 30,008 15.5
EBITDA 1,312 1,013 29.6 983 4,150 4,114 0.9
Margin (%) 11.2 11.3 10.5 10.7 12.1
Depreciation 446 459 (2.8) 451 1,794 1,793 0.1
Other income 166 264 (37.0) 137 563 681 (17.4)
EBIT 1,032 817 26.3 669 2,919 3,002 (2.8)
Interest 458 480 (4.5) 471 1,874 1,975 (5.1)
PBT 574 338 70.1 198 1,044 1,027 1.7
Extraordinary income/(expense) - - - - -
PBT (After EO) 574 338 70.1 198 1,044 1,027 1.7
Tax 142 (1) NA 50 249 188 32.6
% PBT 24.7 -0.3 25.4 23.8 18.3
Reported PAT 433 338 27.8 148 796 840 (5.2)
Adjusted PAT 433 338 27.8 148 796 840 (5.2)
Source: Company, PL

Key Operating Metrics

Y/e March Q4FY19 Q4FY18 YoY gr. (%) Q3FY19 FY19 FY18 YoY gr. (%)
Volume (mn te) 2.94 2.2 31.7 2.3 9.7 8.5 13.4
Net Realisations (Rs/te) 3,989 4,019 (0.7) 4,056 4,020 4,007 0.3
EBITDA/ te (Rs/te) 447 454 (1.6) 426 430 483 (11.0)
Source: Company, PL

May 28, 2019 2

 JK Lakshmi Cement

Financials
Income Statement (Rs m) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e Mar FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Y/e Mar FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Net Revenues 34,122 38,823 41,186 42,765 Non-Current Assets

YoY gr. (%) 17.2 13.8 6.1 3.8
Cost of Goods Sold 7,784 9,687 9,114 9,550 Gross Block 33,064 33,313 36,484 36,784
Gross Profit 26,338 29,136 32,072 33,215 Tangibles 33,064 33,313 36,484 36,784
Margin (%) 77.2 75.0 77.9 77.7 Intangibles - - - -
Employee Cost 2,350 2,599 2,740 2,932
Other Expenses 3,190 3,171 3,902 4,054 Acc: Dep / Amortization 5,129 6,923 8,844 10,822
Tangibles 5,129 6,923 8,844 10,822
EBITDA 4,114 4,150 4,894 5,431 Intangibles - - - -
YoY gr. (%) 12.6 0.9 17.9 11.0
Margin (%) 12.1 10.7 11.9 12.7 Net fixed assets 27,935 26,390 27,640 25,962
Tangibles 27,935 26,390 27,640 25,962
Depreciation and Amortization 1,793 1,794 1,922 1,978 Intangibles - - - -

EBIT 2,321 2,356 2,973 3,453 Capital Work In Progress 2,512 4,111 962 962
Margin (%) 6.8 6.1 7.2 8.1 Goodwill - - - -
Non-Current Investments 4,159 4,163 4,159 4,159
Net Interest 1,975 1,874 1,681 1,490 Net Deferred tax assets 200 220 486 735
Other Income 681 563 525 525 Other Non-Current Assets 30 284 30 30

Profit Before Tax 1,027 1,044 1,817 2,487 Current Assets

Margin (%) 3.0 2.7 4.4 5.8 Investments 4,402 3,624 4,402 4,402
Inventories 3,170 3,117 3,837 3,984
Total Tax 188 249 272 373 Trade receivables 969 1,066 1,128 1,172
Effective tax rate (%) 18.3 23.8 15.0 15.0 Cash & Bank Balance 116 180 335 1,815
Other Current Assets 1,298 1,302 1,469 1,499
Profit after tax 840 796 1,544 2,114 Total Assets 44,888 44,554 44,544 44,815
Minority interest - - - -
Share Profit from Associate - - - - Equity
Equity Share Capital 589 589 589 589
Adjusted PAT 840 796 1,544 2,114 Other Equity 13,944 14,638 16,071 18,043
YoY gr. (%) 2.4 (5.2) 94.1 36.9 Total Networth 14,532 15,227 16,659 18,632
Margin (%) 2.5 2.0 3.7 4.9
Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - - - Non-Current Liabilities
Long Term borrowings 20,204 13,190 16,204 14,204
Reported PAT 840 796 1,544 2,114 Provisions 108 109 108 108
YoY gr. (%) 2.4 (5.2) 94.1 36.9 Other non current liabilities 1,606 1,756 1,606 1,606
Margin (%) 2.5 2.0 3.7 4.9
Current Liabilities
Other Comprehensive Income - - - - ST Debt / Current of LT Debt - - - -
Total Comprehensive Income 840 796 1,544 2,114 Trade payables 3,186 5,114 3,837 3,984
Equity Shares O/s (m) 118 118 118 118 Other current liabilities 3,851 7,402 4,476 4,584
EPS (Rs) 7.1 6.8 13.1 18.0 Total Equity & Liabilities 44,888 44,554 44,451 44,722
Source: Company Data, PL Research Source: Company Data, PL Research

May 28, 2019 3

 JK Lakshmi Cement

Cash Flow (Rs m) Key Financial Metrics

Y/e Mar FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Year
Y/e Mar FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

PBT 1,027 1,044 1,817 2,487 Per Share(Rs)

Add. Depreciation 1,793 1,794 1,922 1,978 EPS 7.1 6.8 13.1 18.0
Add. Interest 1,975 1,824 1,681 1,490 CEPS 22.4 22.0 29.4 34.8
Less Financial Other Income 681 563 525 525 BVPS 123.5 129.4 141.5 158.3
Add. Other (436) (375) (375) (375) FCF 27.2 28.8 32.3 40.2
Op. profit before WC changes 4,359 4,287 5,044 5,581 DPS 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0
Net Changes-WC 591 324 117 78 Return Ratio(%)
Direct tax (386) (261) (454) (622) RoCE 6.6 7.5 9.7 10.5
Net cash from Op. activities 4,565 4,350 4,707 5,037 ROIC 6.2 6.5 9.8 11.0
Capital expenditures (1,369) (960) (910) (300) RoE 5.9 5.3 9.7 12.0
Interest / Dividend Income - - - - Balance Sheet
Others 481 375 375 375 Net Debt : Equity (x) 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.4
Net Cash from Invt. activities (888) (585) (535) 75 Net Working Capital (Days) 10 (9) 10 10
Issue of share cap. / premium - - - - Valuation(x)
Debt changes (1,502) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) PER 55.1 58.1 30.0 21.9
Dividend paid (103) (106) (106) (142) P/B 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.5
Interest paid (2,046) (1,824) (1,681) (1,490) P/CEPS 17.6 17.9 13.3 11.3
Others - - - - EV/EBITDA 15.1 13.4 11.8 10.0
Net cash from Fin. activities (3,650) (3,930) (3,787) (3,632) EV/Sales 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.3
Net change in cash 26 (165) 384 1,480 Dividend Yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Free Cash Flow 3,196 3,390 3,797 4,737 Source: Company Data, PL Research
Source: Company Data, PL Research

Quarterly Financials (Rs m)

Key Operating Metrics
Y/e Mar Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19
Y/e Mar FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Net Revenue 9,234 8,514 9,350 11,725
Volume (mn te)-Cement 8 10 10 10
YoY gr. (%) 2.5 9.6 11.7 30.7
Cement Realisation (Rs/te) 4,007 4,020 4,085 4,170
Raw Material Expenses 2,206 1,883 2,205 3,392
EBITDA (Rs/ te) 483 430 485 530
Gross Profit 7,028 6,631 7,145 8,333
RM cost (Rs/ te) 1,101 1,160 976 972
Margin (%) 76.1 77.9 76.4 71.1
Power, Oil & Fuel (Rs/ te) 1,126 1,093 1,051 991
EBITDA 939 916 983 1,312
Freight Charges (Rs/ te) 1,029 1,038 1,054 1,067
YoY gr. (%) (7.3) (2.4) 7.2 33.6
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Margin (%) 10.2 10.8 10.5 11.2
Depreciation / Depletion 446 452 451 446
EBIT 493 465 532 866
Margin (%) 5.3 5.5 5.7 7.4
Net Interest 451 493 471 458
Other Income 110 150 137 166
Profit before Tax 152 121 198 574
Margin (%) 1.6 1.4 2.1 4.9
Total Tax 14 43 50 142
Effective tax rate (%) 9.4 35.4 25.4 24.7
Profit after Tax 137 78 148 433
Minority interest - - - -
Share Profit from Associates - - - -
Adjusted PAT 137 78 148 433
YoY gr. (%) (51.4) (41.0) 71.7 27.8
Margin (%) 1.5 0.9 1.6 3.7
Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - - -
Reported PAT 137 78 148 433
YoY gr. (%) (51.4) (41.0) 71.7 27.8
Margin (%) 1.5 0.9 1.6 3.7
Other Comprehensive Income - - - -
Total Comprehensive Income 137 78 148 433
Avg. Shares O/s (m) 118 118 118 118
EPS (Rs) 1.2 0.7 1.3 3.7
Source: Company Data, PL Research

May 28, 2019 4

 JK Lakshmi Cement

Price Chart Recommendation History

(Rs)
No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)
550
1 12-Jun-18 Accumulate 381 334

479 2 10-Jul-18 Accumulate 381 314

3 6-Aug-18 Hold 360 330
407
4 5-Oct-18 Hold 359 298
336 5 7-Jan-19 Hold 340 315
6 11-Feb-19 Hold 320 305
264
May - 18

May - 19
May - 16

May - 17
Nov - 16

Nov - 17

Nov - 18
7 5-Apr-19 Hold 320 357

Analyst Coverage Universe

Sr. No. CompanyName Rating TP (Rs) Share Price (Rs)
1 ACC BUY 1,710 1,389
2 Ambuja Cement Hold 205 198
3 Coal India Hold 250 223
4 Heidelberg Cement India BUY 190 145
5 Hindalco Industries Accumulate 245 198
6 Hindustan Zinc Hold 275 268
7 Jindal Steel & Power BUY 230 129
8 JK Lakshmi Cement Hold 320 305
9 JSW Steel BUY 360 279
10 NMDC Reduce 86 95
11 Shree Cement Hold 16,800 15,918
12 Steel Authority of India Hold 50 53
13 Tata Steel BUY 780 469
14 The Ramco Cements Hold 600 574
15 Ultratech Cement Hold 3,725 3,791

PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature (Absolute Performance)

Buy : > 15%
Accumulate : 5% to 15%
Hold : +5% to -5%
Reduce : -5% to -15%
Sell : < -15%
Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock
Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly

May 28, 2019 5

 JK Lakshmi Cement

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May 28, 2019 AMNISH

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Date: 2019.05.29 04:37:48 +05'30'