2nd IFAC Workshop on Advanced Maintenance Engineering,

Services and Technology

Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain. November 22-23, 2012

Application of Artificial Intelligence in Maintenance Modelling and Management

Khairy A H Kobbacy


School of Built Environment, University Of Salford, Salford, England UK M54WT

Abstract: Over the past 3 decades many attempts have been made to apply Artificial Intelligence (AI)
techniques in maintenance modeling and management. Essentially the use of AI is an attempt to replace
human intelligence with machine intelligence. The ultimate objective is to achieve more effective
maintenance management and in some cases to make achieving this goal a viable option. The AI
techniques used are numerous ranging from the classic expert systems that utilizes rule based reasoning
to the more cumbersome optimization techniques used in Genetic Algorithms. Over the past decade there
has been a shift towards developing hybrid intelligent management systems in operations that use more
than one AI technique. The application areas of AI in maintenance extends widely from the intelligent
maintenance optimization models to the more practical applications such as cost budgeting of
maintenance projects and selecting optimal repair methods. This paper presents an overview of the
applications of AI techniques in maintenance over the past decades identifying specific applications and
extent of use of techniques. The paper discusses the applications of AI techniques and recent trends.
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Fuzzy Logic, Rule Based Reasoning, Case Based Reasoning, Genetic
Algorithms, Maintenance Modelling, Maintenance Management.

been applied. Over the past decade there has been a shift to
1. INTRODUCTION
developing hybrid methods that use two or more AI
Maintenance management is an integral part of management techniques in order to produce more powerful systems that
of operations i.e. the organization function that is responsible have more than one “dimension” of intelligence e.g.
for the production of goods and/or services. There have been reasoning, learning etc. The application areas extend widely
many publications and organized conferences that address to all industries such as nuclear, chemical, petrochemical,
intelligent management systems in operations since the late building etc.
1990s. The author has contributed to a number of review
papers that addresses the broad area of AI in operations e.g. This paper presents an overview of the applications of AI
Kobbacy and Vadera(2011) and Kobbacy et al (2007). There techniques in maintenance over the past decades identifying
is also a publication on AI in Maintenance (Kobbacy 2008) specific applications and extent of use of techniques. There
that provides a review covering maintenance and fault are no restrictions made to the aspects of maintenance
diagnosis and also addresses the design and development of decision making process covered except for not including the
intelligent maintenance optimization systems. This paper has area of fault diagnosis. This is a distinctive area of research
a more focused objective to address the maintenance and has vast publications, see Kobbacy and Vadera (2011).
modelling and management aspects, to provide an up to date The paper also presents recent trends in developing AI
overview, to draw conclusions on the extent of applying the systems in maintenance that may help projecting future
various AI techniques in maintenance and the application developments based on understanding of the needs of the
areas and identify recent trends. subject area.

Over the past 3 decades many attempts have been made to
use AI techniques in maintenance modeling and
management. Essentially this work is about the use of AI in
order to replace human intelligence with machine intelligence
in order to solve complex or large scale problems or indeed
systems that changes regularly. The ultimate objective is to
achieve more effective maintenance management and in
some cases to make achieving this goal a viable option. The
AI techniques used are numerous ranging from the classic
expert systems that utilize rule based reasoning to the more
cumbersome optimization techniques used in Genetic
Algorithms. However not all the AI techniques are suitable to
address issues in this area and indeed not all techniques have
The Science Direct database was used to carry out the
literature search using the name of the AI technique with
search carried out on the title and abstract and keywords. In
most cases it was sufficient to make a judgement and extract
sufficent information based of reading the abstract. In some
cases the author had to consult the full article. The search
covers publications up to June 2012.
2. AI APPLICATIONS IN MAINTENANCE
2.1 Knowledge Based Systems (KBS)

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MYCEN the diagnostic medical expert system was designed
in the early 1970 at Stanford University and generated lots of
interest despite the fact that it was never used in anger. KBS
which is closely linked to Expert Systems witnessed the
revival of AI in the 1980s. It generated great interest at the
time with a promise of solving interesting problems. Initial
interest in applying AI techniques in maintenance started
with KBS. The early paper by Dhaliwal (1986) argued for the
use of AI techniques in maintenance management of large
scale systems. Kobbacy (1992) proposed the use of KBS in
this area and that was followed by a paper , Kobbacy et
al(1995) detailing “IMOS”, an Intelligent Maintenance
Optimisation system that uses KBS.
Over the years the interest in KBSs in maintenance varied but
in general maintained moderate interest. Applications also
covered a wide range of areas. Batanov et al (1993) presents
a prototype KBS system for maintenance management
(EXPERT-MM) that suggests maintenance policy, provides
machine diagnosis and offers maintenance scheduling. Su et
al (2000) presents a KBS system for analysing cognitive type
recovery for preventive maintenance. Gabbar et al(2003)
suggests a computer aided Reliability Centred Maintenance
(RCM) based plant maintenance management system. The
adopted approach utilises a commercial Computerised
Maintenance Management System (CMMS).
2.2 Fuzzy Logic (FL)
FL is a popular AI technique that has many applications and
frequently employed with other AI techniques in developing
hybrid systems. The paper by Zadeh in 1965 introduced the
concept of fuzzy sets. In a later publication Zadeh(1999)
defines narrow FL which aims at a formalization of
approximate reasoning and wide FL which is coextensive
with fuzzy set theory and is far broader than narrow FL.
Today, the term fuzzy logic is used predominantly in its wide
sense.
There is a steady interest in applying FL in modelling
maintenance problems due to its convenience in dealing with
uncertainty. Mozami et al(2011) uses FL to prioritise
maintenance activities based on pavement condition index,
traffic volume, road width and rehabilitation and
maintenance cost. Al-Najjar and Alsyouf (2003) assesses the
most popular maintenance approaches using a fuzzy multiple
criteria decision making (MCDM) evaluation methodology.
Derigent et al(2009) presents a fuzzy methodology to assess
component proximity based on which opportunistic
maintenance strategy can be implemented. They use
component proximity fuzzy modelling which targets the
system components ‘‘close to’’ a given reference component,
on which a maintenance action is planned. Sasmal and
Ramanjaneyulu (2008) develops a systematic procedure and
formulations for condition evaluation of existing bridges
using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Malik et al (2012)
uses UV/VIS spectroscopy based FL to assess transformer oil
health.
Risk based maintenance/ inspection are becoming a popular
approach to ensure safe as well as economically viable
55
operation. Khan and Haddara (2004) presents a structured
risk-based inspection and maintenance methodology that uses
fuzzy logic to estimate risk by combining (fuzzy) likelihood
of occurrence and its (fuzzy) consequence. They demonstrate
case studies based on oil and gas operations. Singh and
Markeset (2009) presents a methodology for risk based
inspection programme for pipes using a fuzzy logic
framework.
2.3 Case Based Reasoning (CBR)
CBR uses index schemes, similarity functions and adaptation
to utilise past experiences in solving new problems. When
combined with other AI techniques it can provide powerful
hybrid systems that are able to solve complex problems
through the use of machine learning capability.
Yu et al (2003) studies remote maintenance decision making
and identifies the need not only to advice from supplier to
customer but also requires their negotiation and cooperation
based on knowledge. The paper presents a multi-agents, CBR
based E-maintenance DSS system for maintenance problem
solving. Chou (2009) outlines the development of a Web-
based CBR prototype system to assist decision makers in
project screening and budget allocation. The system
determines preliminary project cost with information based
on previous experience of pavement maintenance related
construction. Cai et al(2011) presents a framework for
command forces system, based on CBR, of equipment
maintenance support. The paper provides an analysis of the
CBR based method of representation and storage of
equipment maintenance case.
Cheng et al (2008) presents an Intelligent Reliability Centred
Maintenance Analysis (IRCMA). CBR is used to utilise
historical records of RCM analysis on similar items to
analyse a new item.
2.4 Genetic Algorithms (GAs)
GA is an optimisation technique that was developed in the
1970s. It is based on the principles of genetics and natural
selection i.e. solutions can be evolved through mutation and
weaker solutions become extinct. GAs have superior and
versatile features compared with the classic optimisation and
search techniques. For example it can work with large
number of continuous or discrete variables and optimise
extremely complex cost functions though it has the drawback
of requiring high computing power that may require the use
of parallel processing (Haupt and Haupt, 2004). Because of
these features GAs are appealing in solving many complex
maintenance management problems.
GA is the most popular AI technique applied in maintenance.
Indeed there are many publications on applying GAs in a
wide range of maintenance problems and applications though
mostly of operational rather than strategic nature. There are
numerous recent developments and applications of GAs in
maintenance that we cannot cover all in this preview paper.
In what follows we will highlight the most popular
maintenance problem situations and industrial applications.
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Maintenance scheduling problems represent large scale and
complex applications due to the large amount of variables
involved and their interdependence. Planning preventive
maintenance is indeed one of the most complex activities due
to the nature of the problem and the typical lack of data. Lapa
et al (2006) presents a model for PM planning using GAs.
The paper aims at presenting a GA approach to optimize PM
schedules automatically considering factors such as the
probabilities of requiring repairs and their costs, the typical
downtime, PM costs, maintenance impact on the systems
reliability, probability of imperfect maintenance, etc. A case
study of High Pressure Injection System (HPIS) of a typical
4-loop Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) was used to
evaluate the methodology. Volkanovski et al (2008) presents
a GA approach to optimise maintenance schedule of a
generating unit of a power system. Tsai et al (2001) optimise
PM for mechanical component. They consider a choice of
either a PM intervention to partially renew the component or
a replacement with new component. The optimal activities-
combination at each PM stage is decided by using GA to
minimise the system unit-cost life. The optimal minimum-
cost life is reached at the point in time when the system's
unit-cost life is less than its discarded life at PM intervention.
Sortrakul et al (2005) presents a heuristic based on GA for
integrated PM planning and production scheduling for a
single machine. Yang and Yang(2012) uses GA to optimise
aircraft maintenance plan.
There are few attempts to use GAs to optimise maintenance
of parallel/ series systems. Levitin and Lisnianski (1999)
addresses the problems of redundancy and reliability for a
multi-level system with different levels of output at point in
time. The optimal system structure and replacement policy
provide the desired level of system reliability with minimal
cost of maintenance and failures measured by unsupplied
demand. Monga and Zuo (2001) study optimal design of
series-parallel systems considering maintenance and salvage
values. A reliability based design model is developed with
deteriorating components and considering the effects PM and
asset depreciation. GA is used to perform constrained
optimization of the system cost function subject to both
active and non-active constraints. Nourelfath et al(2012)
studies the joint redundancy and imperfect PM optimisation
for a series-parallel multistate degraded system. They used a
heuristic based on combined GAs and Tabu Search to solve
the formulated problem.
There are few publications on the combined use of GAs
together with MonteCarlo simulation. Marseguerra et al
(2002) uses GA to determine the optimal degradation level
beyond which preventive maintenance has to be performed
for a continuously monitored multi-component system.
Marseguerra and Zio (2000) presents an interesting study on
using Monte Carlo simulation in terms of economic costs and
revenues of operation of a plant. GA is then used to optimise
the components maintenance periods and number of repair
teams. Chootinan et al (2006) introduces a pavement
maintenance programming methodology that can account for
uncertainty in pavement deterioration using a simulation-
based GA approach. This GA approach is capable of
planning the maintenance activities over a multi-year
56
planning period. The uncertainty of future pavement
conditions is simulated based on the calibrated deterioration
model and GA is used to solve the combinatorial
optimisation problem. Also note the examples in chemical
process industry below.
Levitin and Lisnianski (2000) addresses the problem of
optimising imperfect PM for multi state systems i.e. systems
with different levels of output at a point of time. They used
GA to find an optimal sequence of minimum cost PM actions
while providing the required level of system reliability.
Nahas et al (2008) proposes an improved optimisation
approach to find the optimal PM actions based on the
extended great deluge algorithm which is simpler and
produced the best solution.
Examples of applying GAs in maintenance optimisation in
Nuclear Power system include the work of Lapa et al (2000)
which used GA to maximise availability of nuclear power
system through maintenance scheduling. Jiejuan et al (2004)
utilizes Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) technology to
study the effect of testing and PM on component
unavailability and build a maintenance risk-cost model for
global maintenance optimisation in a nuclear power plant. A
GA is used to obtain the optimal maintenance strategy.
Another application in nuclear industry has been discussed
earlier in this section ( Lapa et el (2006)).
Tan and Kramer (1997) presents a general framework for PM
optimisation in chemical process operations using GAs and
Monte Carlo simulation. It is suggested that the proposed
framework can easily be integrated with general process
planning and scheduling and can be applied for opportunistic
maintenance problems. Nguyen and Bagajewicz (2008) also
uses GA to optimise PM scheduling in a process plant. Monte
Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the maintenance cost,
economic loss and to assess maintenance performance.
Another important application area for GA in maintenance is
in manufacturing and flow-shop. Chung et al (2009) indicates
the importance of system reliability in manufacturing which
is even more critical for a multi-factory production networks
as a failure may cause a chain of reactions. This paper
proposes a double tier GA approach for multi-factory
production networks to keep the system’s reliability within
acceptable range and minimize the makespan of the jobs.
Moradi et al(2011) proposes a bi-objective model for joint
production and maintenance scheduling problem in flexible
job shop problem (FJSP). The model aims at minimising both
the unavailability and makespan using GAs.
2.5 Neural Networks (NNS)
NNs are based on the idea of emulating human brain. They
are often used in modelling and statistical analysis (Gurney,
1997) and in classification and optimisation.
Siener and Aurich (1995) presents a concept for quality
oriented maintenance scheduling. Artificial NN is used to
predict the influence of individual machines on final product
quality based on expected conditions of quality relevant
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process objects. Mazhar et al(2007) estimates the remaining
life of used components using a two step approach based on
integrating reliability assessment model using Weibull
analysis and ANN model which utilises the degradation and
condition monitoring data. The authors show the advantages
of using this approach for sustainable management of supply
chains. Lee et al (2008) proposes an approach to improve
Bridge Management Systems (BMS) by utilising an ANN
based prediction model for generating historical bridge
condition ratings using limited bridge inspection records. The
model is used to predict the missing historical condition
ratings of individual bridge elements leading to improvement
of BMS reliability in predicting the future bridge condition.
interest in maintenance applications. Few applications have
been found on CBR and NNs in maintenance but none using
DM. Few hybrid systems have been developed in the
maintenance area.
3.2 Trends
Table 1 below shows the number of papers published during
the period 2005-09 based on Kobbacy and Vadera(2011) and
the finding of current study for 2010 to June 1012.
Table (1) Number of published papers during 2005-09 and
2010-June 12 and % annual change

2.6 Data Mining (DM) AI Tech 2005-09 2010-June12 % Annual

Change
DM uses statistical and machine learning techniques to KBS 4 0 -100%
automate the detection of data patterns in a data base and to FL 7 8 128%
develop predictive models to support decision making CBR 4 2 No change
(Berson et. al. 2000). We have not identified publication on GAs 7 12 243%
using DM in maintenance modelling and management. NNs 0 1 -
However it is expected with the increased volumes of DM 0 0 No change
maintenance databases that DM will used in the future to Hybrid 5 5 100%
identify patterns and trends. Total 27 28 107%
2.7 Hybrid Systems
As it can be seen GAs has the largest increase in publication
rate since 2009. That is followed by FL. NNs increased from
Hybrid Systems are those which employ two or more AI
none to one paper with none in KBS and CBR,
techniques. In maintenance applications the most frequently
used AI technique in a hybrid system is FL when used with Although the number of hybrid system publications is
NN and GAs. Hybrid systems using other combinations in limited, its publication rate since 2010 has doubled. That is
maintenance include CBR with AHP and GAs with Artificial
consistent with the belief of the author that more hybrid
Immune Systems and Simulated Annealing.
systems will be developed in the future to take advantage of
the increased power and effectiveness of such systems. That
Christodoulou et al (2009) presents neurofuzzy DSS for
is also supported by the study of Kobbacy and Vadera (2011)
urban water distribution networks. The system undertakes which confirms that despite its limited applications the
multi-factored risk-of failure analysis and asset management. number of hybrid systems developed in a range of operations
Huang (1998) proposes a genetic-evolved fuzzy system for
management areas including maintenance has tripled during
maintenance scheduling of generating units. Kim(1994)
the period 2005 to 2009.
introduces a method for maintenance scheduling using GA
and simulated annealing.
3.3 Application Areas
Kobbacy et al (2000) presents the next generation of IMOS
It has been observed based on the above overview that FL
discussed above under KBS. The Hybrid IMOS, HIMOS,
applications cover a range from the more policy type
uses a hybrid approach of KBS and Case Based Reasoning
applications e.g. the study of Al-Najjar and Alsouf(2003)
which provides a much needed learning capability to the
which assesses maintenance approaches to the operational
system. type application e.g. of Sasmal and Ramanjaneyulu (2008)
on condition evaluation of bridges. KBS also shows similar
spread of applications including the system which suggests
3. DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS maintenance policy of Batanov et al(2003) to the plant
maintenance management system of Gabbar et al(2003).
3.1 Use of AI Techniques CBR also seems to be applied on policy type applications e.g.
Yu et al(2003) and Chou(2009) and also to the operational
The above review shows that over the past two decades many type e.g. Cheng et al(2008).
AI techniques have been applied in maintenance management
and modelling. The most popular of the AI techniques In contrast with the above techniques, GAs and NNs have
applied in maintenance is GAs. That can be explained by the more focus on operational level applications. Examples of
powerful optimisation methods GA offers which can deal the GAs overviewed applications is the work of Lapa et
with complex maintenance planning problems. Both al(2006) on PM planning, Tsai et al (2001) on optimising PM
Knowledge Based Systems and FL have received moderate for mechanical components and Sortakul et al (2005) on

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2nd IFAC A-MEST
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integrated PM planning. All are operational level type of
studies. The same applies to NNs with studies on
maintenance scheduling by Aurich (1995) and estimation of
components’s residual lives by Mazhar et al (2007).
Kobbacy et al(2007) attempts to identify the suitability of the
various AI techniques to problem types. They indicate that
due to their nature and ability to deal with uncertainty
techniques such as FL, KBR and CBR are more suitable to
deal with unstructured problems that are typical of higher
level executive type problems. The more optimisation like
techniques including GAs and NNs are more suitable to
operational level problems. Based on the discussion of the
previous paragraph one can argue that not so many strategic
type problems have been encountered in this review.
However there is an element of consistency in that the
applications of GAs and NNs almost all are in the more
operational category. On the other hand FL, KBR and CBR
seems to cover problems ranging from the more operational-
structured type to the semi structured tending to deal with the
policy/ strategy type problems.
4. CONCLUSIONS
This study presents an overview of AI applications in
planning and modelling in maintenance. Due to the limitation
of space not all published studies are covered. The study was
not limited in the time period it covers but this subject is
relatively young and relevant publications started to appear
from the mid 1980s.
The study revealed that GAs is the most popular AI technique
applied in maintenance due to its nature which offers
powerful optimisation tools that can deal with complex
maintenance planning problems. Both KBS and FL show
moderate interest with fewer studies using CBR and NNs. No
studies were found on using DM the author expects interest
in using DM in maintenance should be forthcoming.
As expected FL, KBS and CBR applications cover both
policy type as well as operational type maintenance decision
problems while GAs and NNs are mainly focused on
operational problems such as PM planning and scheduling.
The study of publications’ trends GAs showed large increase
in rate of publication with both FL and Hybrid system
publications increased significantly. CBR sustained its
moderate number of publication with interest started in NNs.
No publications were found using KBS and DM.
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