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DISSERTATION
By
2005
are integrated across countries, how shocks propagate from one country to another and
how firms in foreign countries react to country level shocks. This dissertation provides
propagation of extreme shocks between cross-listed shares and domestic markets and on
the dispersion in capital market reactions across firms to sovereign rating changes.
In the first dissertation essay, I study the determinants of credit spread changes of
individual U.S. dollar denominated bonds – domestic and foreign sovereign – using
of the cost of debt for all issuers and are fully determined by credit risk in structural
models. I construct a new dataset of domestic corporate and sovereign U.S. dollar bonds,
which I use to find that changes in spreads not explained by fundamentals have two large
common components that are distinct for each type of debt I study. Using a vector
autoregressive (VAR) model, I find that domestic spreads are related to the lagged first
component when focusing on the dynamics of these spreads. Traditional macro liquidity
ii
variables are related to the common components found in domestic and sovereign
spread changes. My findings suggest possible explanations for the common component
documented by previous research in domestic debt spreads. My research shows that, after
taking into account the dynamics of the common components in credit spreads across
debt types, the cost of debt for firms and countries depends to some extent on shocks that
The second dissertation essay studies the extreme linkages between Latin
American equities and the US stock market using tools from Extreme Value Theory
(EVT). Bivariate extreme value measures are applied on six different country pairs
between the U.S. S&P500 Index and each of the following countries: Argentina, Brazil,
Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela. I find evidence of: a) asymmetric behavior in
the left and right tails of the joint marginal extreme distributions, and b) differences in
extreme correlations for different instruments (investing in ADRs vs. investing directly in
the local stock markets) when no difference was to be expected. There is also evidence of
a structural change in the correlations for the Mexican case before and after the 1995
Mexican crisis.
The third dissertation essay studies the effect of sovereign credit rating changes
issued by Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s on the cross section of domestically traded
stocks. I first establish, consistent with earlier literature that analyzed similar phenomena
in the U.S. (e.g. Holthausen and Leftwich, 1986; Goh and Ederington, 1993), that local
stock markets react only to news of sovereign credit rating downgrades. Cumulative
abnormal returns of stock indices also show that investors react only to rating
announcements made by Standard & Poor’s and not to those by Moody’s. I then study the
iii
cross sectional variation of the abnormal returns of individual firms associated with
sovereign credit rating changes. I find that larger firms experience larger stock price
drops after a sovereign credit downgrade. Also, firms located in more developed
emerging countries experience smaller stock price reductions following sovereign credit
downgrades. Finally, I document that firms that had access to international capital
markets experience larger abnormal returns than firms that do not have access to
iv
Dedicated to my family
v
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
and enthusiasm which made this dissertation possible, and for his patience in correcting
encouragement, not only with this dissertation but throughout my graduate studies.
I also wish to thank Mike Cooper, Craig Doidge, Jean Helwege, Francis
Longstaff, and seminar participants at Drexel University, Fordham University, Ohio State
University, Purdue University, Queen’s University, and University of Virginia for helpful
vi
VITA
PUBLICATIONS
Research Publication
FIELDS OF STUDY
Concentration: Finance
vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Abstract ............................................................................................................................... ii
Dedication ........................................................................................................................... v
Acknowledgments.............................................................................................................. vi
Vita.................................................................................................................................... vii
List of tables....................................................................................................................... xi
2.1. Introduction.............................................................................................................. 6
2.2. Debt spreads of sovereign bonds ........................................................................... 10
2.2.1. Sovereign debt literature. ................................................................................ 11
2.2.2. Implications of the literature and proxies used to test them. .......................... 14
2.2.2.1 Bond-specific variables............................................................................. 15
2.2.2.2. Country-specific variables ....................................................................... 15
2.2.2.3. U.S. interest rate term structure. .............................................................. 16
2.2.3. Data description .............................................................................................. 16
2.2.4. A model for sovereign spreads ....................................................................... 20
2.3. Debt spreads of domestic bonds ............................................................................ 22
2.3.1. Domestic debt literature.................................................................................. 23
2.3.2. Theoretical determinants of domestic debt spreads ........................................ 25
2.3.2.1. Bond specific variables ............................................................................ 25
2.3.2.2. Firm specific variables............................................................................. 25
viii
2.3.2.3 U.S. interest rate term structure ............................................................ 26
2.3.3. Data description .............................................................................................. 26
2.3.4. A model for domestic debt spreads................................................................. 28
2.4. Analyzing the common factor................................................................................ 29
2.4.1. Establishing the existence of common factors................................................ 29
2.4.2. Explanatory power of the extracted components............................................ 33
2.5. Looking into the information content of the common factors ............................... 34
2.5.1. Lead-lag relations............................................................................................ 34
2.6. Conclusions and future work ................................................................................. 39
Chapter 3. Latin American and U.S. equities return linkages: An extreme value approach
........................................................................................................................................... 41
3.1 Introduction............................................................................................................. 41
3.2. Literature review.................................................................................................... 44
3.2.1. The univariate case ......................................................................................... 47
3.2.2. The bivariate case ........................................................................................... 50
3.3. Data ........................................................................................................................ 51
3.4 A small test for the Mexican pairs .......................................................................... 55
3.5. Concluding remarks ............................................................................................... 55
Chapter 4. The effect of sovereign credit rating changes on emerging stock markets ..... 58
4.1. Introduction............................................................................................................ 58
4.2. Literature review.................................................................................................... 65
4.3. The effect of sovereign rating changes on stock market indices ........................... 71
4.3.1. Data ................................................................................................................. 72
4.3.2. Methodology ................................................................................................... 74
4.3.3. Discussion of index level results..................................................................... 75
4.4. Impact of sovereign rating changes at the firm level............................................. 79
4.5. Conclusions............................................................................................................ 86
Bibliography ..................................................................................................................... 91
ix
Appendix A. A comparison of sovereign bond coverage on Datastream and the NAIC . 99
x
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1. Expected signs on explanatory variables for sovereign sample ....................... 104
Table 9. Sovereign and domestic regressions including the common factors ................ 114
Table 12. Extreme correlations using different number of tail exceedances.................. 117
Table 17. Stock index results using initial ratings .......................................................... 122
Table 19. Stock market reaction to the first rating by either agency .............................. 124
xi
Table 20. Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) for stocks with international financing
......................................................................................................................................... 125
Table 21. Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) for all stocks following a sovereign
Table 22. Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) for all stocks following a sovereign
Table 24. Coverage for sovereign bonds on Datastream and Warga databases. ............ 133
xii
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 3. Q-Q Plots for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the Mexican
Figure 4. Q-Q Plots for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the Mexican
Figure 5. Q-Q Plots for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the S&P 500
Figure 6. Excess mean graphs for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the
Figure 7. Excess mean graphs for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the
Figure 8. Excess mean graphs for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the
Figure 9. Correlation between S&P and the Mexican stock market index and correlation
Figure 10. Correlation between S&P and the Chilean stock market index and correlation
xiii
Figure 11. Correlation between S&P and the Venezuelan stock market index and
Figure 12. Correlation between S&P and the Colombian stock market index and
Figure 13. Correlation between S&P and the Brazilian stock market index and correlation
Figure 14. Correlation between S&P and the Argentinean stock market index and
Figure 15. Correlation between S&P and the Mexican stock market index and correlation
between S&P and Mexican ADRs before the 1995 Mexican crisis ............................... 145
Figure 16. Correlation between S&P and the Mexican stock market index and correlation
between S&P and Mexican ADRs after the 1995 Mexican crisis .................................. 145
xiv
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
The last twenty years have witnessed large reductions in regulations and barriers
that prevented financial integration across countries. As markets slowly became more
integrated, brand new fields for financial research opened up. Not only could we study if
foreign markets behaved in a similar way to U.S. markets, but we also could study issues
surrounding the integration of U.S. and international financial markets. The first
dissertation essay investigates whether common factors that explain credit debt spread
changes for domestic and sovereign debt after taking into account fundamentals are
related, and then proceeds to analyze the determinants of these common factors. This
dissertation essay looks at two groups of assets that had previously been studied only
separately. It focuses on credit spread changes of U.S domestic bonds and sovereign
bonds, making it the first paper to bring together these two groups of individual bonds to
component unrelated to credit risk in the time-series and cross-section of the unexplained
portion of the spreads (Collin-Dufresne, Goldstein and Martin, 2001; Huang and Huang,
2003). If the U.S. and overseas market for dollar-denominated credit-risky bonds is
1
integrated, the information present in the unexplained portion of U.S. dollar sovereign
debt spread changes should be related to unexplained portion of U.S, domestic bonds
spread changes. This especially should be the case if that common component can be
explained by liquidity shocks, since such shocks are pervasive across markets (Chen,
Lesmond, and Wei, 2002; Chordia, Sarkar, and Subrahmanyam, 2003; Kamara, 1994).
changes in credit spreads for domestic credit-risky debt (Collin-Dufresne, Goldstein and
Martin, 2001) and dollar-denominated sovereign debt (Scherer and Avellaneda, 2000;
Westphalen, 2003). The contribution of this dissertation essay is to study the relation
between the common components identified in domestic debt and the common
To conduct this analysis, a new dataset comprised of all domestic industrial and
U.S. dollar-denominated sovereign debt is constructed. This dataset contains data for 233
corporate bonds issued by 649 different companies that traded between January 1990 and
January 2003. Results obtained help to discriminate between competing explanations for
the common component previously documented for domestic debt, and also might
I find strong evidence of the existence of two common factors unrelated to credit
risk in debt spread changes of U.S. denominated sovereign debt and in the debt spread
contemporaneous correlation between the two domestic and the two sovereign factors, a
vector autoregressive (VAR) model shows that domestic spread changes are related to the
2
lagged sovereign spread’s first principal component. Finally, I find that all four common
factors are related to the flows of money going into equity and bond funds, and the
second common component of each group is related to the net borrowed reserves from
The second dissertation essay analyses the extent of the financial and economic
integration between Latin American countries and the United States by focusing on the
Extreme Value Theory (EVT). EVT is the study of outliers or extremal events. Since
large movements in returns are usually characteristic of financial crisis and since these
large movements can be considered outliers, the use of EVT seems to be warranted. This
approach has several advantages. First among these are the well-known results on
are needed about the true underlying distribution that generated data in the first place.
Since financial contagion usually occurs during periods of very high distress, it seems to
be best analyzed using techniques that focus on the tails of a distribution function. (Bae,
The financial assets I analyze are American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and their
domestic counterparts in Latin America. Latin American firms can cross-list their shares
in the U.S. via ADR programs, and at the end of 2001 there were 1,322 non-U.S. firms
with sponsored programs, including 623 trading on American stock exchanges with a
U.S. stock markets into domestic markets. It builds on the work of Longin (1996) and
3
Longin and Solnik (2001) applying EVT in finance by examining the linkage between
financial assets available to U.S. investors looking for international exposure before and
after main events such as the 1995 Mexican crisis. It also adds to the growing literature
current approaches based on elliptic distributions for the often temporary, but large,
movements in prices.
The third dissertation essay studies the effect of sovereign credit rating changes
on the cross-section of locally-traded firms. A sovereign credit rating reflects the rating
agency’s opinion on the ability and willingness of sovereign governments to service their
and financial stability. Sovereign credit ratings have large effects that spread to firms
located within their borders, and changes to these ratings constitute country-wide shocks
that can have sizable effects on the terms under which firms obtain financing and the
of how much information sovereign rating changes convey to individual stocks within
domestic markets. Specifically, I investigate if and why a country rating matters for firms
within a country. I show that sovereign rating changes affect the terms on which a
domestic firm can get credit, creating an exogenous change in the cost of capital. I divide
the results into two parts: I first present the effect of rating changes at the aggregate level
using national stock indices, and then proceed to study the effect of those sovereign
rating changes on the individual firms located within those countries. Index level results
are consistent with the extant literature on the effect of credit-rating changes on U.S.
4
firms. I do find evidence of a significant negative stock price reaction to sovereign rating
upgrades. Further, I document that local stock markets react only to news of sovereign
Standard and Poor’s (S&P) and Moody’s on 29 emerging countries from 1986 until 2003.
I study the stock price reaction to 136 downgrades (81 from S&P and 55 from Moody’s)
and 100 upgrades (57 and 43 from S&P and Moody’s respectively). I also collect
abnormal returns for each firm, cross-sectional regressions of those abnormal returns are
size and wealth of the country where a firm is domiciled are related to the extent to which
that a firm will be affected by a sovereign-rating change. More importantly, I find that
5
CHAPTER 2
2.1. Introduction.
U.S domestic and sovereign bonds. Previous research has focused on one type of bonds at
a time, making this paper the first one to bring together the credit spreads on these two
types of debt to study their joint dynamics. If the market for dollar-denominated credit-
risky bonds is integrated, we can expect credit and non-credit related shocks to affect all
bonds, i.e. the information present in the time series cross-section of the unexplained
portion of U.S. dollar sovereign debt spread changes should be related to the common
U.S. domestic bonds (Collin-Dufresne, Goldstein and Martin, 2001; Huang and Huang,
2003). This should especially be the case if that common component can be explained by
liquidity shocks, since such shocks are pervasive across markets (Chen, Lesmond, and
Wei, 2002; Chordia, Sarkar, and Subrahmanyam, 2003; Kamara, 1994). In this chapter, I
investigate whether common factors that explain credit spread changes for domestic and
sovereign debt after taking into account fundamentals are related and analyze the
sovereign debt. Scherer and Avellaneda (2000) identify the existence of two common
factors for sovereign debt spread changes. Westphalen (2003) finds evidence of a
common factor for sovereign debt spread changes of bonds denominated in several
currencies after controlling for country risk proxies. Research on changes in domestic
bond credit spreads by Collin-Dufresne, Goldstein and Martin (2001) finds one common
component after controlling for fundamentals. The relation between these common
examining whether the information in the dynamics of U.S. dollar denominated sovereign
debt spreads is associated with the common component found in U.S. corporate bond
spreads. Specifically, I estimate different models of spread changes for each type of
bonds – domestic and sovereign – because these two groups vary in their source of credit
risk. Using principal component analysis for each debt type, I extract common factors
from the unexplained portion of credit spread changes from these models. I investigate
whether the common factors in U.S. dollar denominated sovereign debt are related to the
common factors present in U.S. corporate debt spread changes using both regressions
uncover.
domestic industrial and U.S. dollar-denominated sovereign debt. This dataset contains
7
data for 233 non-callable, non-puttable bonds issued by 37 emerging countries and 3097
domestic corporate bonds issued by 649 different companies that traded between January
1990 and January 2003. This dataset is different from the ones used by earlier studies in
at least three ways. First, extant bond studies that use Datastream bond data do not
include ‘dead’ issues, i.e., bonds that have matured or were retired, while I include them
to avoid a survivorship bias. Second, the Fixed Income Database used in some other
studies has a limited coverage of high-yield issues since it mainly covers investment-
grade bonds (Huang and Kong, 2003). I do not have this problem because my dataset
contains data for the complete universe of bonds covered by Datastream.1 Finally, this
component previously documented for domestic debt, and also suggest new explanations.
I find strong evidence of the existence of two common factors unrelated to credit risk in
debt spread changes of U.S. denominated sovereign debt and in the debt spread changes
contemporaneous correlation between the two domestic and the two sovereign factors, a
vector autoregressive (VAR) model shows that domestic spread changes are related to the
lagged sovereign spread first common component. Finally, I find that all four common
factors are related to the flows of money going into equity and bond funds, as measured
by the Investment Company Institute (ICI), while only the second common component of
1
Informal conversations with Datastream’s customer service revealed that several large banks, including
Lehman Brothers, were among their providers for bond data. Since Lehman Brothers was the provider for
the FISD, we feel confident Datastream’s data includes what is covered in the FISD and has broader
coverage of high-yield bonds because of the additional data providers. A comparison between FISD and
Datastream sovereign bond data can be found in Annex A.
8
each group is related to the net borrowed reserves form the Federal Reserve, a
This chapter is the first one to bring together these two types of credit-risky
dollar-denominated debt to study the joint dynamics of the common factors in their credit
spreads. The results I obtain improve our understanding of the determinants of the cost of
debt for foreign countries and for domestic firms. For example, my results suggest that
the cost of debt for foreign countries and domestic firms is not only a function of their
own creditworthiness but also depends on shocks that affect the price of all debt.
Further, these results help us understand better the extent to which the sovereign
and domestic corporate bond markets are integrated. In a fully integrated dollar debt
market, we would expect the relation between domestic corporate credit spreads and
corporate credit spread changes and sovereign credit spread changes suggests that the
cost of debt for emerging markets depends mostly on country and emerging-market
emphasizes the impact of developed country developments for capital flows into
emerging markets (Calvo, Leiderman, and Reinhart, 1993; Chuhan, Claessens, and
Mamingi, 1998). Further investigation of the robustness of my results might shed greater
9
This chapter proceeds as follows. Section II describes the literature, sample,
variables and methodology used to model credit spread changes for sovereign bonds.
Section III does the same for credit spread changes for domestic corporate bonds. I
investigate, using a variety of techniques, the existence and nature of the factors affecting
debt spread changes in section IV. Section V analyzes the dynamics of the common
factors and investigates whether liquidity and/or demand related variables are related to
U.S. domestic corporate and U.S. dollar denominated sovereign spreads, the unexplained
compute the credit risk portion of debt spread changes is based on the determinants of
bond spread changes specified by structural models. For sovereign bond spreads, I expect
factors. In this section, I review the relevant literature on U.S. dollar denominated
sovereign bond spreads (section 2.1), and then discuss the testable implications of the
extant literature and describe the proxies that are used to test the hypotheses derived from
it (section 2.2). I describe the sovereign bond sample next (section 2.3), present a model
to estimate debt spreads, discuss the results, and explain the computation of residuals
(section 2.4).
10
2.2.1 Sovereign debt literature.
The international debt market changed dramatically in the past 25 years. In the
1980s bank loans were the principal instrument of this market. By the end of that decade,
unsustainable levels. The crushing pressure of debt payments forced several emerging
market countries to the verge of default. To avoid the ripple effects of such a default on
the world’s financial system –which was still recovering from the 1987 stock market
crash-- the U.S. government helped put in place a plan that would allow these countries
to orderly restructure their debt schedule. The Brady plan, formulated in 1989 by then
Secretary of the Treasury Nicholas Brady in association with the World Bank and IMF,
called for the issuance of sovereign bonds to replace the loans of commercial banks.2
Brady bonds opened a vast and untapped market for emerging market countries hungry
for U.S. dollars to help finance their growth, commercial deficits or simply to cover
current expenses. Bank loans, while still an important component in sovereign debt
balances, gave way to sovereign bonds as the principal financing instrument for emerging
countries in the 1990s. Bonds were clearly preferred for several reasons, for instance the
dispersion of creditors and the existence of a market where these bonds could be actively
traded, which provided investors with a transparent benchmark measure of country risk.
2
These bonds were coupon bearing (fixed, floating or hybrid), long maturity (ten to thirty years) issued in
registered or bearer form, whose principal and part of the interest were guaranteed by collateral of U.S.
Treasury bonds and other high grade securities. Some of them included special recovery rights (warrants)
that could be detached and traded separately. This last characteristic made the computations of yields for
these bonds especially tricky.
11
The sovereign spread, or credit spread, computed now from bond yields, continued to be
Starting in the 1980s, the determinants of sovereign debt spreads has been studied
by Eaton and Gersovitz (1981), where governments trade off the cost of paying debt
versus reputation costs or exclusion from capital markets, and Bulow and Rogoff (1989),
who provide rational explanations for international lending and model the costs of debt
determinants of the debt spread measured as the difference between the interest rate
international reserves and the risk free rate to explain the probability of default in
second half of the 1990s attracted even more attention to this area, as researchers started
international financial markets. For instance, Cantor and Packer (1996) and Eichengreen
and Moody (1998) study the determinants of bond spreads at the issue level, finding that
More recently, Scherer and Avellaneda (2000), Joutz and Maxwell (2002) and Cifarelli
and Paladino (2002) study selected series from several emerging markets using principal
3
The credit spread is often referred to as yield spread, debt spread or simply spread. These terms are used
interchangeably in this paper.
12
It was previously mentioned in this chapter I take a structural approach to the
different from corporate debt. One of the most important characteristics of any debt
contract is the guarantee provided by the legal framework to creditors that allows them,
in the case of default, to take possession of collateral and/or to liquidate the defaulting
debtor’s assets. There is no enforceable bankruptcy code for sovereign bonds, making it
country’s assets. Acknowledging the endogenous default decision that countries face in
this framework, Gibson and Sundaresan (1999) present a model in which creditors can
impose trade sanctions and capture some fraction of the defaulting country’s exports, and
Westphalen (2002) extends their model to include rescheduling in the form of a bond
credit spread changes (Collin-Dusfrene et.al. 2001) to a sample of sovereign bonds issued
So far, research on sovereign debt spreads has focused more on how spreads are
determined at issue than on the study of the dynamics of the cross-section. There are two
reasons for this. First, thin trading in many of these bonds produces relatively fewer
sovereign bond transactions data. As a result, some data vendors resort to provide matrix
prices (e.g. Bloomberg), which are not useful for research purposes.5 Second, in the early
1990s, when the market for sovereign debt was in its infancy, countries started by issuing
4
Another approach to the study of sovereign spreads has been implemented through the use of models
based on an exogenously specified intensity process, known as reduced-form models. Merrick (2000)
studies the implied recovery rations in Argentinean and Russian bonds. Pagès (2001) fits the joint Libor
structure and discount Brady bond prices to a reduced-form model using a two factor affine-yield model.
Duffie, Pedersen and Singleton (2003) conduct an analysis of Russian debt.
5
Actual quotes and/or transaction prices are available from different providers in the Bloomberg terminal
through an additional subscription service.
13
few bonds. As their credibility improved, reinforced by the implementation of structural
reforms in their economies, and investors got acquainted with this new supply of bonds,
sovereign issuers increased the number and amount of debt offerings. Therefore, it took
some years for this market to be sufficiently diverse and liquid enough to allow the
construction of a data panel suitable for research purposes. Today, the sovereign debt
market is more developed –we have more bonds with longer time series each one- and
there are better and more alternatives to obtain bond data – several information services
provide access now to observed pricing data, although some remain very expensive.
affect sovereign debt spreads.6 Based in part on previous literature, I put together three
groups of variables that should capture most of the debt spread variation. The first group
contains bond-specific variables, i.e., variables that vary within bond issues, e.g. years to
maturity. The second group contains variables that vary from country to country but are
the same for all bonds from a given country (country-specific variables). The third group
contains variables that are the same for all bonds in the sovereign sample, and try to
6
One problem with most empirical work exploring the relation between macroeconomic variables and debt
spreads is that they conduct static analysis, i.e., only study the cross-section of spreads at one point in time,
usually at issuance. For instance, GDP growth has been theoretically and empirically shown to have
significant explanatory power over issue level spreads. This is not useful in this context since most of the
data used in this paper is released monthly, quarterly or even annually in some countries.
14
2.2.2.1 Bond-specific variables.
to maturity duration measures how long an investor has to wait before getting their
money back. Sovereign bonds pay (relatively) large coupons and therefore a large
proportion of the cash flows are paid throughout the life of these bonds, thus we have to
consider the possibility that years to maturity could be an overstated proxy of a bond’s
average life.
default, i.e., a country’s ability (and/or willingness, depending on the model of reference)
to keep servicing its debt. Following Eaton and Gersovitz (1981), Bulow and Rogoff
(1989), Krugman (1985, 1989), Gibson and Sundaresan (1999) and Westphalen (2002), I
collect data on exports and total debt outstanding to construct a debt-to-exports ratio.
Borrowing from Krugman and Rotemberg’s (1991) speculative currency attacks model, I
distance-default. Westphalen (2003) uses a political risk measure which I also use here. I
also collect the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) ratings history for each country. I use the
monthly volatility of local stock returns as a proxy for volatility in a country’s wealth or
value. This measure is also used because it is a good proxy for local risk. One direct
testable implication of this is that spreads should increase with volatility. Finally, the
15
2.2.2.3 U.S. interest rate term structure.
Since all the bonds in my dataset are denominated in U.S. dollars, I care about
factors that affect the U.S. yield curve term structure. From Litterman and Scheinkman
(1991) we know that the U.S. yield curve level and slope are important explanatory
factors of the term structure. Further, in this framework, if a country’s wealth follows a
stochastic process analogue to a firm’s value process, the risk neutral drift will be
positively related to the risk-free rate. An increase (decrease) in the risk-free rate should
increase (decrease) the country’s wealth over time, making default less (more) likely to
happen. Since an upward-sloping yield curve slope is, according to the expectations
hypothesis theory of the term structure,7 predicting higher interest rates in the near future,
I expect this slope to have some effect on spreads today. Also, a positively sloped interest
rate term structure is perceived as signaling increased economic activity in the near
future.
Table 1 presents the predicted correlation signs between the variables previously
I collect monthly data on all U.S. dollar denominated bonds with Datastream
coverage. Datastream’s yields are calculated using average market maker prices provided
‘live’ and 3451 ‘dead’ bonds8 issued by foreigners that traded between January 1990 and
7
Bodie, Kane and Marcus (1999), pp. 446.
8
One important feature of Datastream’s coverage of bonds is that only ‘live’ issues (i.e., issues that are
currently trading) appear in their bond lists. Therefore, to make sure I had all available data, I conducted a
16
January 2003. I eliminate from the dataset all bonds that were callable and/or puttable at
borrower’s option, all that had an early redemption feature and/or were extendible at the
bond holder’s option, and all that were not issued by a sovereign entity.9 This leaves my
dataset with 181 live and 52 dead bonds. Also, I eliminate all observations with less than
one year to maturity because, as these bonds approach their maturity date, they are less
traded, which in turn dries up their liquidity and distorts prices and yields.10 After all
these adjustments, I come up with a sample that contains 9,275 monthly observations
from 233 bonds issued by 37 different countries, which did trade between January 1990
For each bond, I collect the monthly redemption yield (datatype 4 in Datastream).
I also collect the monthly U.S. Treasury yield curve. Then, I compute debt spreads as the
difference between the redemption yield of the sovereign bond and the value of a linear
interpolation of the U.S. Treasury yield curve to obtain the yield of a U.S. instrument
with identical maturity as the bond being analyzed.11 I collect years to maturity time
series for each bond. As proxies for the U.S. Treasury yield curve’s level and slope, I
collect monthly annualized yields for the on-the-run two and ten year Treasury notes.12
country by country search of U.S. dollar denominated bonds in the ‘Dead bonds’ (not trading anymore
because they were retired or they matured) section of the Datastream Extranet web site.
9
I am not using Brady bonds in my analysis because their characteristics are inherently different from
regular sovereign bonds. The existence of collateral as well as the existence of value recovery rights
attached to Brady bonds makes them a class on their own. Further, the tendency is for sovereigns to retire
par and discount Brady bonds, so that movements in Brady bond’s prices might be reflecting low volume
and thin trading problems and not changes associated with the underlying value of the issuer and the overall
liquidity of the market For instance, Mexico’s Ministry of Finance and Public Credit announced on April 7,
2003 that it was calling US$3,839 million of its dollar-denominated Series A and B Brady Par Bonds,
which were the last outstanding series of Mexican Brady Bonds denominated in dollars.
10
Sarig and Warga (1989). This effect is even more pervasive when considering that liquidity was not great
in the first place.
11
I also collected the monthly U.S. Treasury yield curve using CMT (constant maturity treasuries) to
calculate spreads and our results are insensitive to the choice of U.S. benchmark curve.
12
The use of CMT yields for those maturities did not affect our results at all.
17
Monthly exports data expressed in nominal U.S. dollars come from the IMF’s
International Financial Statistics. Debt outstanding and foreign reserves data are obtained
from the joint BIS-IMF-OECD-World Bank statistics on external debt. Quarterly data on
the total amount outstanding of bank loans, of debt securities issued abroad and of Brady
bonds is obtained from this source, as well as monthly data on the amount of international
reserve assets, excluding gold.13 One shortcoming of this database is that not all series are
available on a quarterly basis and there are some gaps in the data, especially in the earlier
1990s.
measure of country risk for emerging markets. It measures political, economic policy,
economic structure, currency, sovereign debt and banking sector risks. This index can be
used as a guide for the general risk of a specific country. It provides help in assessing the
risk of investing in the financial markets of those economies as well as the risks involved
in direct investment. The values are derived from measuring the risk associated with four
aspects of the country –political risk, economic risk, economic structure risk and liquidity
risk.14
measure as proxy. Ideally, I wanted to use MSCI country indices, since they are
calculated for each country using the same methodology. However, MSCI country
indices were not available daily going back to the early 1990s for many of the countries
13
All figures are expressed in current U.S. dollars.
14
The overall risk rating is measured on a scale from 1 to 100 where 1 denotes the least risk and 100 the
most risk possible. For example, in December 2002, the value of the index was 78 for Argentina, 63 for
Brazil and 48 for Mexico.
18
included in this paper. Therefore, I used Datastream local equity indices. For more than
half of the countries in the sample (twenty one), I collect daily data for the local
Datastream equity index. For eight additional countries, I collect daily data from their
own local equity indices. For the remaining countries Datastream’s world total return
index was used. To correct for differences in the scales of the indices the coefficient of
I also collect the available history of Standard & Poor’s (S&P) country ratings
from Bloomberg, and follow Eom, Helwege and Huang (2003) for translating S&P
ratings into numerical values, where a rating of AAA has a value of 1, AA+ a value of 2
and so on.
Table 2 has summary statistics for the sovereign sample. Observations are
grouped in five different categories according to their S&P rating. It is evident from panel
A that all groups display a high degree of non-normality. Also, as expected, spreads
increase as we move down in ratings. The mean debt spread in the overall sample is 483
basis points, the maximum spread is 3939 basis points and the minimum is 1.9 basis
points. Interestingly, the standard deviation also increases as the rating deteriorates. Over
the sample period, the standard deviation is on the order of 25.3 to 809 basis points.
There is evidence of extreme movements in each group as the 90% and 10% values are
Panel B has the mean values, by group and for the overall sample, of some
country specific variables. Debt-to-reserves, debt-to-exports and political risk all increase
19
these variables to have on average higher values as we move form high to low ratings,
I estimate the following equation for each bond observation in the sample:
measurei,t + β3*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve level,t + β4*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve (1)
estimate this equation, I decided to use an OLS model with Newey-West adjusted
errors.16 A priori, I expect the coefficients to have the signs described in Table 1. Table 3
shows the results of estimating equation (1) in four different rating groups. These groups
are similar to those presented in Table 2, except that the first and second groups from that
The model seems to have a good fit, as measured by R-squared measures, which
range from 19% to 30%. For brevity, I will discuss only the results for the overall sample.
The debt-to-reserves ratio and the political risk measure both have a positive coefficient
15
Some previous research has been conducted on spread levels, for instance, Houweling et. al. (2002).
Cantor and Packer (1996) and Eichengreen and Moody (1998) run regressions on the log of the yield
spread.
16
I experimented with several other methodologies. I estimated equation 1 using OLS fixed effects,
grouping our sample by bond, by country, and by region. I also estimated FGLS (Feasible Generalized
Least Squares), OLS with panel corrected standard errors and OLS with Huber/White standard error
correction. All methodologies produced quantitatively and qualitatively similar results; however results
were more consistent using OLS coefficients with Newey-West adjusted errors. Results obtained with other
methods are not reported in this paper and are available from the author.
20
(as expected) and are highly significant. Two lags of the political risk variable were
included to account for the possibility of autocorrelation in this variable. These variables
measure the ability to service debt and the overall political and economic environment of
the issuer. An increase in political risk would signal higher instability and/or the
increase in the debt-to-reserves ratio could be caused by an increase in the nominal debt
higher spread. I also find that the coefficient estimates when using debt-to-exports in
place of debt-to-reserves are not significant and have the wrong sign, so they are not
reported.
The coefficient associated to the U.S. Treasury yield curve level is negative and
highly significant. Previous work had obtained insignificant positive coefficients (Cline
and Barnes, 1997; Min, 1998; and Kamin and Von Kleist, 1999), and significant negative
coefficients is that, as interest rates go up, low rated countries find it less convenient to
issue debt. Also, most structural models predict a negative relation because higher
interest rates increase the drift of the process followed by the firm’s (in this case,
country’s) value.17 A higher firm (country) value should be associated with a smaller
The coefficient associated with the U.S. Treasury slope term is always positive
and significant, however, this is unexpected. Following the expectations theory of interest
rates, a positively sloped yield curve signals higher future rates, which should be
17
Longstaff and Schwartz (1995).
21
associated with smaller spreads. Two reasons for this effect were previously mentioned.
On one hand, we could expect the average quality of sovereign issuers to increase
because low rated countries decide not to issue debt and this increase in overall quality
puts downward pressure on spreads. On the other hand, higher rates will mechanically
increase the distance to default in most Merton-based structural models which would also
Local volatility is positive and highly significant, as expected. The local stock
return has the expected (negative) sign and also is significant. The coefficient on changes
of years to maturity is negative and not significant. I interpret this coefficient as evidence
of the existence of a survivorship bias in which only relatively better countries make it to
issue longer term debt, as explained by Helwege and Turner (1999) for the domestic case.
It may be the case that investors think that in the case of a default, short term maturities
are more risky than long term maturities since countries will usually default first on
issues with closer maturities, making short term issues riskier. The lack of consistent
payments selectively. Finally, for a country facing financial difficulties, a longer time
horizon will provide the necessary time and maneuvering room to enact reforms and
measures that will allow the country to return to fiscal stability, effectively making longer
domestic bond spreads (section 3.1). Then I discuss the variables used in the computation
22
of domestic spreads (section 3.2), and I describe the characteristics of the domestic bond
sample (section 3.3). I then proceed to estimate domestic debt spreads, discuss the results
The first structural model of risky debt is by Merton (1974). In this paper, Merton
used an option pricing approach to include systematic and idiosyncratic risk in the
calculation of the value of a put option on the firm’s value.18 In Merton’s model a firm
defaults on its debt when its assets are not enough to cover its outstanding obligations.
Default occurs when the firm’s value crosses from above a given threshold. The initial
model allowed for default only at maturity and was extended by Black and Cox (1976) to
allow for earlier default. Another extension was introduced by Longstaff and Schwartz
models by Anderson and Sundaresan (1996) and Mella-Barral and Perraudin (1997).
Modeling endogenous corporate default was introduced by Leland (1994) and Leland and
Toft (1996). As these models need a fair amount of abstraction to achieve tractability, it
is not surprising that they prove to be difficult to implement and then almost always with
disappointing results (see Eom, Helwege and Huang (2003) for a review of the problems
This lack of results motivated some researchers to try another approach, using
18
Specifically, Merton’s (1974) model states that a risky zero-coupon bond has the same payoff structure
as a risk-free bond plus being short a put option on the firm’s value with a strike price equal to the face
value of the debt.
23
fundamentals and do not explicitly model the processes followed by the firm’s leverage
an exogenous hazard rate. For instance, Duffie and Singleton (1997) use a generic point
process and Lando (1998) uses a Cox process. Through extensive calibration, reduced
form models generally produced better results at explaining and forecasting yield spreads
More recently, Elton, Gruber, Agrawal and Mann (2001) tried to explain
corporate spreads using explanatory factors that included the probability of default, the
loss given default, and the difference in tax regimes. Collin-Dufresne et. al. (2001) tried
to explain changes in the credit risk portion of corporate spreads using data on spot rates,
reference yield curve slope, firms leverage and volatility, estimates for jumps in the
firm’s value and a proxy for the general business climate. Both papers, the former being
more of a reduced-form approach and the latter using a variables specified by a structural
framework, find similar results in that their models left a large portion of the cross-
sectional time variation of spreads unexplained, and further, they find that a single
common unknown factor could explain up to 75% of the residual variation. Huang and
Huang (2003) calibrate several classes of structural models to be consistent with the
recent history of observed defaults. They find that different models could generate the
wide range of credit spreads observed in the recent past, and further they provide some
24
2.3.2 Theoretical determinants of domestic debt spreads.
Structural models of domestic debt have identified variables that affect debt
spreads. In a manner consistent with the previous section, I put together three lists of
variables that should capture most of the debt spread variation. As with the sovereign
case, the first list also contains bond-specific variables, i.e., variables that vary within
bond issues, e.g. years to maturity. The second list contains variables that vary from firm
to firm but are the same for all bonds issued by firm (firm-specific variables). The third
list contains variables that are the same for all bonds in the domestic sample, and try to
capture changes in the U.S. interest rate term structure as well as changes in the U.S.
economic climate.
The bond-specific variable is years to maturity. The same arguments from section
I choose two firm-specific variables following the basic spirit of Merton’s model
as presented in Stulz (2003). The first variable, leverage, has been used in previous
research as a successful proxy of a firm’s financial health. The second variable is the
volatility of a firm’s equity. A priori I expect a negative relation between each of these
two variables and debt spreads, since an increase on any of them would make default
more likely.
25
2.3.2.3 U.S. interest rate term structure.
factors that affect the U.S. yield curve term structure. Similar to the sovereign case, I use
the U.S. yield curve level and slope as explanatory factors of the term structure
(Litterman and Scheinkman, 1991). The arguments used in section 2.2.3 also apply here.
Since I collect data only on bonds issued by U.S. industrial firms, I assume their exposure
to the economic cycle is better captured by the S&P 500 index and therefore I collect
monthly returns for this index. Table 4 presents the predicted relations between the
The domestic sample contains all U.S. denominated bonds issued by industrial
domestic firms. Applying the same selection criteria as those for the sovereign sample, I
end up with 2,493 live and 604 dead bonds issued by 649 different firms during the
January 1990 – January 2003 period for a total of 71,831 usable observations. This
sample differs from previous studies in at least three aspects. First, it covers a larger time
period than previous research. Second, I collect data for the entire universe of bonds
issued in U.S. dollars by domestic industrial firms, not only for those traded by any
specific group of investors. Third, the Fixed Income Database used in earlier studies like
obtained for high-yield bonds using that database might not be representative (Huang and
Kong, 2003).
26
Debt spreads are computed in the same way as for the sovereign sample. Years to
maturity data is collected for each bond. The measures of the U.S. Treasury yield curve’s
level and slope are the same as the ones used in the previous section. The proxy for the
U.S. economic climate is the S&P 500 total return index from Datastream.
To compute the leverage ratio I collect book value of debt from COMPUSTAT
(items 45 and 51) and the market value of equity from CRSP. Leverage ratios are then
Table 5 shows descriptive statistics for the domestic sample. Although it would be
ratings is sketchy at best. In light of that problem, I decided to classify the data according
to leverage. As can be seen from the leverage columns of panel A, credit spreads increase
as firms become more levered. Further, the standard deviation of credit spreads also
increases with leverage. Data on the ‘No leverage data’ column refers to firms that are
either private or are not covered by COMPUSTAT. The presence of heavy tails in each
category is evident from the dispersion observed in the max, min, 10% and 90% values,
where the 10% and 90% values are several standard deviations away from the mean.
27
2.3.4 A model for domestic debt spreads.
β3*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve levelt + β4*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve slopet + (2)
The results from these regressions are reported on Table 6. I estimated equation
(2) for each leverage group and for the overall sample. Clearly, the model performs better
in the highly leveraged group, as evidenced by the higher R-squared value. This result is
consistent with previous studies which find that structural models perform better for
longer maturity, lower rated sub-groups. As with the sovereign case, I will only go over
the overall sample results. On the coefficient of changes in years to maturity, the negative
but insignificant coefficient is consistent with previous results of Helwege and Turner
(1999) and with the basic Merton (1974) model predictions, as described in Stulz (2003),
for conservative levels of debt. The coefficients of lagged leverage and stock return
volatility –contemporaneous and lagged- are positive and strongly significant. The sign of
the U.S. yield curve level is also as expected and similar to the results obtained by earlier
studies.
In contrast to the sovereign sample, nothing conclusive can be said about the sign
and significance of the coefficient estimated for changes of the U.S. Treasury slope is
significantly positive in every specification. Finally, the S&P index return is significant
28
2.4. Analyzing the common factor.
common factor identified in domestic credit spread changes also is present in sovereign
debt spread changes. In this section, I establish the existence of a common factor in both
the residuals from the regressions on sovereign and domestic debt spread changes.
for data reduction whose objective is to find unit-length linear combinations of the
original variables that capture the maximum variance. I apply principal component
analysis to the residuals obtained from the regressions discussed in previous sections to
verify whether the unexplained variation is truly noise or whether there is evidence of a
common factor driving this unexplained portion of the variance of credit spread
changes.19
The first problem faced when applying principal components analysis is how to
organize unbalanced panels in the most efficient form. Research in this area conducted by
Boivin and Ng (2003) shows that more data is not always better when conducting this
type of factor analysis. In fact, in their forecast exercise they show that factors extracted
from as few as 40 variables could be more informative than factors extracted from all 147
series in their setup. Basically, their result obtains because of large cross-correlation in
19
The serial correlation of the residuals from the regressions for sovereign yield changes is -0.1513 with p
value of 0.2290 and 0.0068 with p value of 0.9345 for domestic yield changes.
29
errors and of small variability of the common components. Sadly, until today there is no
guide as to what data should be included in a principal component analysis or what is the
optimal number of series to include in this exercise. Recent work from Scherer and
effectively using one or two bonds per country in their study. While this might be a
solution for the sovereign case where it is easier to identify benchmark bonds for each
issuer, this is not feasible in the domestic sample. This sample has bonds from 649
different firms, and in many cases there are tens of bonds outstanding from a given firm.
Also, applying principal component analysis to all the bonds in the domestic sample is
not a good idea, since that would most certainly only increase the amount of statistical
I decide to follow the approach implemented by Collin-Dufresne et. al. (2001) and
create groups or ‘bins’ of data to efficiently summarize the information content of the
residuals. I divide each sample (sovereign and domestic) in three maturity categories and
three leverage (debt-to-reserves, in the sovereign case) categories, creating a total of nine
‘bins’ in each sample. Then, each observation is assigned to a bin. I estimate again
equations (1) (for the sovereign bins) and (2) (for the domestic bins), compute the
residuals, and calculate averages across residuals for each bin. Table 7 shows the
correlation structure for the average domestic residuals (panel A), the average sovereign
residuals (panel B) and for all averages –domestic and sovereign (panel C). The average
correlation for the sovereign sample is 0.75, and 0.87 for the domestic sample. To
investigate whether the relatively high correlations found in panel A and C are caused by
30
Table 8 shows the results of applying this eigenvalue decomposition to the bins
constructed earlier. Panel A shows strong evidence of the existence of a common factor
in sovereign spreads. The first common factor explains 76.09% of the variation, as shown
by the proportion of the first eigenvalue. The second common component explains the
interpret the second component because its eigenvalue is well below the value of the first
eigenvalue and is much closer to the third eigenvalue. However, if this is to be interpreted
According to Scherer and Avellaneda (2000), a number between 65% and 80% for the
characterized by a high correlation in the spread changes. My results are consistent with
their result – obtained with spreads computed from Brady issues for selected countries –
in which they found evidence of two common factors driving most of the variation in
spread changes.
factor to all domestic spreads. The first common component explains 86.23% of the
variance. There is weak evidence on the existence of a second component which explains
an additional 8.53% of the variance. The existence of a first common factor that explains
such a large portion of the variance is consistent with previous research, e.g., Collin-
Dufresne et. al. (2001). The existence of a second common factor has not been
documented for domestic debt before, but this could be due to the fact that I am using a
larger dataset and that I am looking at a longer time period that earlier studies.
31
Finally, panel C has the results of looking at the common components of both
the existence of a common factor to both groups of bonds. The first common factor
explains 42.06% of the residual variance of spread changes, while the second factor
consider a value of 65% for the first common component as the lower boundary for a
weak coupling, or correlation, between spread changes. The result I obtain is puzzling
because if the market for dollar-denominated credit-risky bonds is integrated, and if the
common components I find can be explained by liquidity shocks, then such shocks
should be pervasive across markets (Chen, Lesmond, and Wei, 2002; Chordia, Sarkar,
and Subrahmanyam, 2003; Kamara, 1994). According to panel C, this is not what is
happening.
In order to shed more light on the issue of whether the common factor identified
in both samples is indeed the same in both groups, I extract the first and second common
components of each sample to compare them. These common factors are plotted in figure
1. The interpretation of the units in the y-axis is as follows. To compute the principal
components, I analyzed the correlation matrix. This is equivalent to all the variables to
having mean 0 and standard deviation 1. Thus, the common factors are expressed in
terms of these standardized variables. Loosely speaking, the units on the y-axis in both
The pattern seems to suggest a lead-lag relation between the first factor from the
domestic sample and the first factor extracted from the sovereign sample. Figure 2 shows
the second common component extracted from both samples. The figure seems to suggest
32
a weak contemporaneous relation. These issues will be investigated further in the next
sections.
In this section, I examine whether these common factors have explanatory power
over the cross-section of debt spreads for the other type of debt. I estimate again
equations (1) and (2) including in each equation the two common components extracted
from the other group, i.e., I include the factors extracted from the sovereign sample into
the domestic sample regression and vice versa. Results are shown on Table 9.
First, I will talk about the sovereign regression when the domestic common
components are included. Looking at rating categories, the explanatory power of the
equation for the lower rated group (B- to C) increases, as measured by the increases of R-
squared statistic from 22% to 31%. This sub-sample is the one with the least number of
observations. There is, however, no gain in explanatory power in the overall sample.
Further, in every case only the contemporaneous value of the first component from the
domestic sample is significant. In the case of the second component extracted from the
domestic sample, only the lagged value of the second factor is significant for all sub-
groups.
The domestic sample has strikingly different results. In this case, I included in the
domestic spread changes equation both common components extracted from the
sovereign sample. The explanatory power of the overall equation is increased almost by
30%, from an R-square value of 0.09 to 0.12. The only significant common component
coefficient is the contemporaneous effect of the first common component from the
33
sovereign sample. The explanatory power in most domestic sub-samples increases by a
similar percentage as the R-squared value of the overall sample. Overall, I interpret these
results as evidence of the existence of a relation between the first common component
extracted from the sovereign spread changes and domestic debt spread changes. The
dynamics of the relation between the common components extracted from each type of
this section I investigate the contemporaneous and inter-temporal relation between factors
and also investigate whether these factors might be capturing liquidity and/or
supply/demand shocks.
between the first factor extracted from the sovereign sample and the first factor extracted
possibility of one of these markets acting as an early signal for potential problems that
can affect the bond market in general. Previous work like Joutz and Maxwell (2002) and
Cifarelli and Paladino (2002) have applied VAR procedures in a credit spread framework
to study the relation between credit spreads from different countries. More recently,
Longstaff, Mithal and Neis (2003) applied a VAR framework to study the relation
34
between bond and credit derivatives markets. To explore the lead-lag relation between
the sovereign and the domestic factors, the following simple vector-autoregression
specification is used:
k k
FacSovt = a1 + ∑ β1 j FacSovt − j + ∑ γ 1 j FacDomt − j + δ 1 X t +ε 1
j =1 j =1
k k
FacDomt = a2 + ∑ β 2 j FacSovt − j + ∑ γ 2 j FacDomt − j + δ 2 X t +ε 2
j =1 j =1
Table 10 shows the results for the simple case when k is equal to two. Both the
Akaike Information and Schwartz criteria suggest that a VAR system of two lags is
warranted by the data. I first run the VAR model without exogenous variables to have an
initial idea of the lead-lag structure. For brevity, I only report the R-squared value for
each equation and also because the basic lead-lag relation is unchanged when the
exogenous variables are included. I then run the VAR model with exogenous variables.
These exogenous variables are chosen to capture liquidity and supply/demand effects.
Most previous studies dealing with credit spreads specifically abstain from liquidity
effects because of the lack of consensus on how to measure and model liquidity premium
affecting spreads (Chen, Lesmond and Wei, 2003). Longstaff, Mithal and Neis (2003)
study the consistency of the price of credit risk between the bond and derivatives
markets. They find that the implied cost of credit is higher in the bond market than in the
credit derivative market, and advance a possible explanation for this based on the
existence of a liquidity component in debt spreads. Their measure for this liquidity
35
premium is the difference between the price of credit risk in the bond and credit
derivative markets.20
Since all the bonds in the sample are denominated in U.S. dollars and they all
trade in U.S. financial markets, I am interested in variables that measure the overall
liquidity in these markets. I use two general measures of liquidity. The first proxy is the
difference in yield between the on-the-run21 thirty year U.S. Treasury bond and the most
recent off-the-run bond is computed. Off-the-run bonds are bonds that whilst not being
the most recently issued in a certain maturity range, are very similar to the on-the-run
issue in all respects. Therefore, any differences in prices –and therefore in yields- is
usually considered to be due to liquidity. As liquidity dries up, this difference is expected
to decrease.
The second proxy for general liquidity in the market is the net borrowed reserves
from the Federal Reserve,22 which is considered a measure of the monetary stance. A
loose monetary policy usually implies an increase in liquidity via the decrease of credit
constraints. Harvey and Huang (2002) showed that the Federal Reserve, through its
ability of changing the money supply, impacts the trading of bonds and currencies.
Following Chordia, Sarkar and Subrahmanyan (2003) I define net borrowed reserves as
total borrowing minus extended credit minus excess reserves, divided by total reserves.
Since borrowed reserves represent the amount that banks are short to satisfy the Fed’s
Company Institute (ICI) on the monthly flows into mutual funds. ICI’s statistics are
collected from approximately 8,300 mutual funds, and are divided in flows into equity
funds and bond funds. These measures could potentially capture changes in investor’s
attitudes towards risk or any other supply/demand shocks unrelated to overall market
liquidity.23
Table 10 reports the results of the VAR model with the exogenous variables. It
seems that the sovereign factors have explanatory power over the domestic factors but
not the other way around. I will discuss each one of the four equations in the VAR model,
starting with the first common domestic factor. The second lag of the first sovereign
factor is significant in the regression for the first domestic factor. The flows to stocks and
flows to funds variables are negative and significant. This equation is the one with the
The first sovereign factor seems to be slightly autoregressive from the barely
significant coefficient for its own first lag. Coefficients for the domestic factor lags are
not significant, while all the coefficients for the exogenous variables are highly
significant. It seems as if this factor is capturing both liquidity and demand shocks as
implied by the coefficients associated with the exogenous variables. This equation also
has the highest increase in explanatory power, since the R-squared increased from 0.05 to
23
Of course, we have to consider the possibility of endogeneity in our variables, since for instance, a
change in the Fed’s stance could make certain markets more attractive and influence the flows into those
markets. No effort is made at this time to address this concern.
37
The second domestic factor equation shows significant coefficients for the first
lag of both sovereign factors as well as for its own second lag. The flow variables come
The second sovereign factor equation has the highest R-squared value, at 0.67.
Second lag coefficients for both sovereign factors are significant, as are both lags of the
second domestic factor. The flow variables and the net reserves measure are also highly
significant.
the time variation of the factors extracted from the sovereign and the domestic sample.
There also is evidence in support of the aforementioned result that sovereign common
components are related to domestic spread changes but not the other way around, because
the lags of the sovereign common components have significant coefficients in the
equations for the domestic common components but the domestic common components
do not appear to have explanatory power in the equations for sovereign common factors.
Also, there is evidence of an inter-temporal relation going from the first sovereign
common component to the first domestic common component. This is expected from
figure 1. I find that all four common factors are related to the flows of money going into
equity and bond funds, as measured by the Investment Company Institute (ICI), while
measure of liquidity, namely the net borrowed reserves form the Federal Reserve. These
results are consistent with previous literature that has concluded that the unexplained
38
The pattern displayed by the first common factors in figure 1 raises the concern
that my VAR results could be driven by the large spike observed around October 1998.
September, October and November 1998.24 As expected, the significant loading of the
second lag of the first sovereign common component onto the first domestic common
component disappears. Interestingly, however, the coefficient associated with the second
lag of the second sovereign factor now becomes significant, whereas it was not
significant before. The explanatory power of the exogenous variables and the overall R-
squared values of the system remain unchanged. Overall, the evidence suggest that the
asymmetric relation observed between the first common factor from the domestic sample
and the common factors from the sovereign sample remains even after excluding the
yields provides with a unique instrument whose dynamics can shed some light in the
study of the determinants of debt for countries and firms. In this chapter I identified the
existence of a two strong common components, unrelated to credit risk and distinct for
each type of debt, in credit spreads of sovereign and domestic bonds. Using a vector
autoregressive (VAR) model, I find that domestic spreads are related to the lagged first
24
Results are not reported but are available upon request.
39
the dynamics of these spreads. Traditional macro liquidity variables are related to the
I will conduct further research to shed light on why the relation between domestic
expected in a fully integrated market. This could be due to differences in liquidity and
surprising since they suggest that the cost of debt for emerging markets depends mostly
models of debt spreads can be improved if these findings are incorporated in them. To the
extent that investors depend on these models to hedge the credit risk of their bond
positions, they can benefit from a better understanding of the determinants of credit
spreads changes. My research also shows that, after taking into account the dynamics of
the common components in credit spreads across debt types, the cost of debt for firms
and countries depends to some extent on shocks that affect all types of debt.
40
CHAPTER 3
3.1. Introduction
The last fifteen years of the past century witnessed an important increase in
financial and economic integration between Latin American countries and developed
countries. Due to geographical and trade considerations, most of the ongoing integration
took place between Latin America and the United States. This is not to say that
integration with other developed countries, for instance countries members of the
European Union, is not significant, but rather that integration with the U.S. happens to be
One of the many benefits of this increased integration is the newly available
supply of financial assets exhibiting low correlation with the U.S. financial markets.
Mean-variance optimizing investors looking to diversify their portfolios have poured vast
amounts of resources into Latin American stock markets as they were being liberalized.
Among the new instruments available to U.S. investors pursuing the benefits of
41
However, there was a dark side to financial integration and openness. Financial
crisis, in the form of negative financial markets shocks, also moved easily across borders.
In addition, the propagation of financial crisis was facilitated by the newly increased
much attention in recent years from researchers. Recent experiences with the Mexican
devaluation of 1994 – “the tequila effect”-, the 1997 East Asian crisis, the 1998 Russian
meltdown -“the vodka effect”- and the subsequent Brazilian devaluation –the “samba
effect”-, which sent most financial markets around the world tumbling, stressed the
importance for both practitioners and academics of studying and identifying the forces
This chapter addresses the behavior of linkages between financial assets using a
statistical technique known as Extreme Value Theory (EVT). EVT is the study of outliers
financial crisis, and these large movements can be considered as outliers, the use of EVT
seems to be warranted. This approach has several advantages. First among these are the
well known results on asymptotic behavior of the distribution of very high quantiles.
Second, no assumptions are needed about the true underlying distribution that originated
data in the first place. Since financial contagion usually comes into scene during periods
of very high distress, it is a natural area on which to use a technique that focuses on the
My results show that for the six emerging countries analyzed, only in the case of
Mexico the correlations in the extreme are higher between the locally traded stocks and
the S&P than for the corresponding ADRs and the S&P. This result suggest that the
42
contagion mechanism for Mexico is different than for the rest of the countries analyzed
here, in that the shocks appear to be propagated directly into the Mexican stock exchange
rather than through New York via the ADR issues trading there. Another finding
the work of Longin (1996) and Longin and Solnik (2001) applying EVT in finance by
examining the linkage between financial assets available to U.S. investors looking for
international exposure before and after main events such as the 1995 Mexican crisis.
“appropriate” statistical technique for the often temporary but large movements in prices.
Third, related to the first contribution, this chapter also contributes to the empirical asset
pricing literature because of its focus on a relatively new statistical application to the
transmission of information and prices. This is useful as sectors of the U.S. markets
become more volatile. Fourth, this chapter contributes to the risk management literature.
The basic analysis one EVT can easily applied to the other assets, such as energy-based
and commodities derivatives, which also exhibit temporary but sharp price movements.
Finally, it contributes to the research on international asset pricing and allocation. The
analysis on U.S. and Latin American financial assets also is useful for professional
The chapter is organized as follows: the next section discusses some basic results
from Extreme Value Theory and how they are applied in a financial framework. Section
III presents an empirical analysis of the data. In this section, bivariate extreme value
measures are applied on six different country pairs between the U.S. S&P500 Index and
43
each of the following countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and
changes in linkages following the Mexican crisis. Section V concludes and outlines some
In recent years, extreme value theory techniques have been applied successfully to
three related fields in finance: value at risk (VaR), the financial contagion literature and
the literature that studies the return-volume relation. Brooks, et al (2005) test several
EVT models by fitting them to different series of futures contracts in order to determine
which model is more efficient for value at risk purposes. In an univariate analysis, they
find that a model that treats the tail differently while at the same time incorporating
information from the rest of the distribution yields superior results to a generic GARCH
(1,1) model. Gencay and Selcuk (2004) apply univariate EVT to investigate performance
stock crashes. Poon and Lin (2000) use univariate EVT to show that an internationally
diversified portfolio will dominate a US portfolio. The reach that conclusion looking at
probability of loss for each market using a tail index to study the distribution of returns.
Roy (1952) to compute levels of (negative) returns that would wipe out an investor’s
wealth. He applies univariate EVT analysis to study the tail distribution of several Latin
American markets. He finds that investors can benefit from inclusion of these markets in
their portfolios –regardless the fatter tails exhibited by Latin American markets. His
44
results suggest an optimal 15% allocation to these markets. Hartmann, Straetmans, and de
Vries (2001) study stock-bond contagion within and across five developed countries
return distributions. They find that simultaneous crashes in stock markets are twice as
contagion is equally as likely. Finally, cross-border linkages are very similar to national
linkages.
and therefore moves prices and to do this, he studies the return-volume relation in the
tails using bivariate EVT. In almost all cases the results point to a positive correlation
between absolute return and trading volume. This relation is not symmetric, i.e., it is
stronger in the right tail than in the left tail. Reich and Wegmann (2002) analyze a sample
of Swiss stocks in order to study the relation between market value and the relative bid-
ask spread. Using bivariate EVT and using Streatmans’ non-parametric approach to
extreme linkages they document that extreme movements in both variables are not
independent. Marsch and Wagner (2004) use bivariate EVT to reject the null of
independence in the extremes of returns and volume in five of seven developed countries
in their sample. Further, they find that relation to be symmetrical only in the US, i.e., the
Jondeau and Rockinger (2001) study stock returns in 20 countries using univariate
EVT. Surprisingly, they cannot reject that the left and right tail indices are the same, and
they cannot reject that the tail index is the same for all countries. They do find disparity
with respect to where the extremes are located (i.e., a 10% price drop might not be an
45
extreme observation in every country). Poon, Rockinger and Tawn (2002) use non-
parametric measures to identify and quantify tail dependence among international stock
markets. Using data from 1968 to 2000 for US, UK, Germany, France and Japan they
find left-tail dependence to be stronger that right tail dependence. They also document
that these stock index returns do not exhibit asymptotic dependence. Schich (2002) looks
at European stock indices (Germany, UK, France, Netherlands and Italy) from 1973 to
finds that measures of dependence have grown over time and are higher for negative than
for positive returns. He also finds that the bivariate correlation with Germany is similar
for all the countries in the sample. Chan-Lau, Mathieson and Yao (1998) study how
contagion differs across countries. They conclude that contagion patterns differ
significantly within and across regions, that Latin America shows the largest increases in
contagion and that contagion is higher for negative returns than for positive returns.
Several studies have focused on the study of firms within one country. Tolikas
and Brown (2003) apply univariate EVT on individual Greek stocks and find that the tails
have become less fat tailed over time. Brännäs, Shahiduzzaman and Simonsen (2002)
also use univariate EVT to determine that the tails of Swedish stocks are better described
using a Fréchet distribution. Gencay and Selcuk (2001) study overnight borrowing rates
in an interbank money market in Turkey and describe the characteristics of the tail of
their distribution.
Straetmans, Verschoor, Wolff (2003) look at the U.S. stock markets before and
after 9/11. They find no evidence for a structural change in downside risk measured
before and after 9/11. They do find, though, that the probability of joint co-exceedances
46
over thresholds between different sectors and the market portfolio has risen when taking
Extreme value theory (EVT) has been extensively studied in mathematics and
statistics. One of its earliest applications, and in fact one of the branches of science that
motivated much of the work in EVT, is hydrology. Classical applications are the
calculations for the optimal height of dykes in the Netherlands as well as the calculations
of level of tides in the U.K. Engineers also are fond of EVT when it comes to calculate
how resistant some structures are to wind and sea forces. In finance, EVT is a useful
extreme events and it has found a niche in value at risk (VaR) and insurance applications.
Basically, EVT involves modeling the tail of a marginal distribution as well the
distribution can be done without making assumptions about the form of the original
underlying distribution that produced the data in the first place. This is very desirable
technical discussion are encouraged to read the seminal work by Gumbel (1961).
Since this chapter makes no attempt at contribution to the existing EVT theory,
we will only go over the main results of the theory, highlighting the results that are
important for our analysis. We will describe the main results of univariate EVT. Then
building on those results, we will briefly explain the main results extending to bivariate
EVT.
47
For any time series, we can define extremes in two ways. The first approach is to
divide the series in blocks of equal size and take the maxima (the analysis for the minima
can be done by simply using the negative of the series) of each block. For instance, if we
have daily returns for a period of many years, we can divide the data in annual semi
annual blocks and then proceed to take the maximum value from each block. The other
approach to define extremes is to define a high threshold and consider all observations
that exceed the threshold. The first significant result is, for the first case (taking
maxima), that the asymptotic distribution of the maxima is shown -under certain
second significant result, for the threshold approach where one is interested in modeling
the behavior of the exceedances, is that the limiting distribution is a Generalized Pareto
Distribution (GPD).
We will now talk about the first approach. Let {X1,...,Xn} be a sequence of
series of maxima (minima) has been shown (Fisher and Tippet, 1928; Gnedenko, 1943)
parameter ξ is called the tail index and it is positively related to the thickness of the tail,
i.e., the larger the tail index, the thicker the tail. Depending on the value of the tail index
48
which represents a Gumbel distribution and ξ <0 which represents a Weibull distribution.
Empirically, it seems to be the case that the distribution is the best fit for fat tailed
financial series.
The second approach, known in the literature as the POT (peaks over thresholds)
reached.
F u ( x ) = P( X − u ≤ x X > u )
The determination of the threshold u is not trivial and will be briefly addressed
further ahead. For now, we will only mention that it is subject to minimizing the mean
squared error in the parameter estimates. If we set a high threshold, you get a less reliable
estimate due to the lack of data. On the other side, if we set a threshold to low, you get
more precise, albeit biased, estimates since we included some points that did not belong
in the tail. Once the threshold has been determined, we can write
F u ( x ) ≈ G ξ , β ( u ) ( x ), u → ∞
where
− 1/ ξ
⎧ ⎛ ξx⎞
⎪1 − ⎜ 1 + ⎟ ifξ ≠ 0
Gξ ,β ( u ) ( x ) = ⎨ ⎝ β ⎠
⎪ 1 − e − x/β ifξ = 0
⎩
Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The case where ξ = 0 gives us the exponential
49
Application of EVT requires some previous analysis to make sure the data
exhibits fat tails, justifying the use of EVT. In this early stage analysis we usually
perform a visual inspection of the data with the help of Q-Q plots and mean excess
function graphs. A mean excess function graph describes the expected overshoot of a
threshold given that an exceedance occurs. Fat tailed distributions show mean excess
functions tending towards infinity for high thresholds u (linear shape with positive slope).
As mentioned before, the choice of a threshold is subject to the usual trade off
between variance and bias. One solution would be to use a mean excess graph and choose
a threshold that yields a reasonable linear shape. Another –and most common solution– is
to calculate the value of the Hill estimator. The Hill estimator is a maximum likelihood
estimator for a GPD and it is a very popular estimator of ξ. Because the Hill estimator is a
maximum likelihood estimator, we know that the parameter values are chosen to
The first problem faced in extending EVT to a bivariate case is that such
extension is not straightforward. The reason is that in higher order Euclidean space there
is no standard notion of order and thus no standard notion of extremes (Embrechts, et. al.,
1999). The current multivariate EVT allows only for low dimensional problems. Truly
multivariate EVT is not under the current theory reach. Longin (1999) established that the
the extremes for an aggregate position. Still, the bivariate estimation is done in two parts:
50
dependency function. Even though no natural parametric family exists for the dependence
function, Longin and Solnik (2001) proposed the use of a logistic dependence function to
fit the joint tails in a bivariate EVT framework. The logistic dependence function was
first proposed by Gumbel and therefore is also referred to in the literature as a Gumbel
Dl ( y1 , y2 ) = ( y1 −1/α + y 2 −1/α ) α
The main reason for using this dependence function is that the dependence
functional form:
ρ = 1− α 2
Summarizing the bivariate case, we will first get univariate estimates for each
distribution, then fit the dependence function. As we use different thresholds to calculate
the tail indices, we will also get different values of ρ. This property is crucial in that it
3.3. Data
We collected daily data from Datastream for the period between 12/29/1989 and
12/29/2000 --2872 days-- for six Latin American countries and the U.S. The countries are
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela. For each Latin American
country, we collected the return index of the local stock market and for every live ADR
issue trading in the U.S. We also collected the return index of the S&P 500. For every
asset, log returns in dollars were obtained. Also, an equally weighted basket of ADRs for
51
each country was calculated. ADRs were chosen because they represent an alternative to
investors who want to get foreign stock market exposure. Table 11 shows the summary
The next step was to conduct an exploratory data analysis or visual inspection of
each series, two for each country plus the S&P index. Through the use of Q-Q plots and
mean excess graphs we verified that the series exhibit fat tails and we got initial ranges
The Q-Q plot (graph of quantiles) helps to assess the goodness of fit of data to a
parametric model. The more linear the Q-Q plot, the better the goodness of fit. It is also
helpful because on it outliers can easily be detected. The following is the mathematical
⎧ −1 ⎛ n − k + 1 ⎞ ⎫
⎨ X k ,n , F ⎜ ⎟ , k = 1,..., n⎬
⎩ ⎝ n ⎠ ⎭
Figures 3 to 5 show the Q-Q plots for the left and right tail of the Mexican equity
dollar return, the Mexican ADR equally weighted portfolio and the S&P500 index. In all
The next step of the exploratory analysis was to graph the mean excess function
e(u). e(u) is the mean excess over the threshold u. As discussed above, it describes the
distributions show e(u) tending towards infinity for high threshold u (linear shape with
positive slope).
52
This is exactly the pattern that is observed on figures 6 to 8 for the same variables
e( u ) = E ( x − u X > u )
{X k ,n }
, en ( X k ,n ), k = 1,..., n
The complete set of Q-Q plots and mean excess graphs for all variables is
calculating probabilities for out of sample events. In plain terms, we can calculate for
instance, given a 20 year time series of daily returns, the maximum loss that is to be
exceeded every x years. McNeil (1997) has a very good example on this.
However, this chapter is interested in asset linkages, and therefore we will not talk
about the conditional univariate probabilities of exceeding a certain threshold. Our final
goal is to be able to make inferences on the pattern displayed by the correlation in the
extremes, using a framework à la Longin and Solnik (2001). Our exercise here is to
calculate pairwise correlations between the S&P and the local domestic stock indices and
compare these correlations with the correlations obtained from another pair wise
calculation using the S&P and a basket of ADRs. Since in theory an investor can get the
same international exposure from buying shares in the local stock markets than from
buying ADRs in the U.S., we would not expect to find any differences in the behavior of
correlations as we move further into the tails of the marginal distributions. Curiously, this
53
seems not to be the case for some countries considered like the most representative of
economic and financial liberalization, namely Mexico, Chile and Brazil. Figures 2 to 8
show the main product of this chapter. Each graph shows how extreme correlations
(measured in the vertical axis) change value as I increase the threshold used to obtain the
sample (measured in the horizontal axis). Points to the right of the vertical axis show us
the behavior of the positive -right- tail, whereas points to the left of the vertical axis show
correlations which we think are worth further research. Colombia seems promising but
the lack of data makes the inference process dubious. Finally, it is also worth
investigating what is it (or was?) about the Argentinean market that make it behave in
In the ideal case of bivariate normal behavior, we would expect to see a well
behaved bell shape. However, some of the countries offer some evidence of increased
correlations in the negative tails, consistent with all the previous work on financial
contagion. Whether this increased negative extreme correlations are caused by liquidity
problems, heteroskedastic time series or some other explanation is beyond the scope of
this work. For now, we will just show that correlations display an asymmetric behavior
and that S&P - ADR correlations do not always behave in the same way as S&P - local
index correlations. We consider this result significant and we hope that further research
will allow us to draw conclusions about whether the transmission mechanism of financial
crisis goes through the U.S. stock markets -via ADRs- or moves directly to the local
stock markets.
54
3.4. A Small Test for the Mexican Pairs.
Since the Mexican pairs displayed differences both between left and right tail
correlations and between S&P - ADRs and S&P - local stock index, we decided to use
this country to test whether the extreme correlations changed after the 1995 Mexican
crisis. Figures 9 and 10 show the experiment. We divided the sample in two, the first
sample going from 12/29/1989 to 12/31/1994 and the second sample running from
1/3/1995 to 12/29/2000. Absent some formal test, we limit the analysis to a visual
inspection of the behavior of the extreme correlations. At first sight, it seems that the
asymmetric pattern exhibited by the whole sample is driven primarily by the post 1995
period. Let us be very clear about the fragility of any assumption stated in these sections.
As mentioned before, extreme value parameters depend heavily on the size of the sample,
namely the extreme observations. Dividing the original sample in two probably did hurt
the accuracy of the estimates. More work on this area is in progress and it will be
This work is still in its very early stages. However, some promising results are
already showing. Applying bivariate extreme value techniques to pairs formed by Latin
American local stock indices vs. the S&P and Latin American ADRs vs. the S&P we
found visual evidence of non-bivariate normal behavior. More formal Wald test are in the
agenda for future research. Also, we neglected in this chapter a third channel through
55
which a U.S. investor can gain foreign exposure: country-funds. We intend to include
pairs formed by country-funds vs. the S&P and compare the behavior of their extreme
correlations with the ones already obtained and check whether they can offer more clues
Finally, the last point in the research agenda involves a departure from the
Gumbel logistic dependence function. Hartmann, Straetmanns and de Vries (2001) show
that other dependence functions do a much better job at fitting the joint marginal extreme
distributions. Since the only foundation for the use of a Gumbel dependence function was
its ease of interpretation, it is certainly worth the effort to check whether other
dependence functions do a better job fitting this sample of Latin American countries. The
rationale for studying other dependency functions is as follows. Blyth (1996) and Shaw
(1997) have made the point that linear correlation cannot capture the non linear
dependence relationships that exist between many real world risk factors. They point that
distribution, jointly. This is, when the underlying process is governed by elliptical
distributions, i.e., distributions whose density is constant on ellipsoids and whose contour
However, they point that the use of correlation is not ok when we are outside the
elliptical world because marginal distributions and correlation do not determine the joint
distribution. Other important facts in this non-elliptical case are that perfectly dependent
variables do not necessarily have a correlation of 1 and vice versa, and zero correlation is
not equal to independence. Finally, it is important to recall that correlation is only defined
56
The aforementioned facts provide with the following game plan for future
research. We can, for instance, use rank correlation, i.e., the linear correlation of
The use of copulas comes as a natural alternative. Copulas are a way of trying to
extract the dependence structure from the joint distribution. For instance, a joint
number (which can be a dangerous simplification) and rather utilizes a model of the
dependence structure to provide with more info. More work in this area is needed and
57
CHAPTER 4
4.1. Introduction
In this chapter, we study the effect of sovereign credit rating changes on the cross
section of locally traded firms. Standard and Poor’s defines a credit rating as “a current
A sovereign credit rating, then, reflects the rating agency’s opinion on the ability
economic status, transparency in the capital markets, levels of public and private
investment flows, foreign direct investment, foreign currency reserves, and the ability of
ratings is that sovereign credit ratings have large effects and implications that spread to
25
http://www.standardandpoors.com/
58
other entities besides the one being rated. Cantor and Packer (1996) wrote: “Sovereign
ratings are important not only because some of the largest issuers in the international
financial markets are countries, but because these assessments affect the ratings assigned
to borrowers of the same nationality. For example, agencies seldom, if ever, assign a
rating to a (...) private company that is higher than that of the issuer's home country.”
Investors with interests in foreign firms pay attention not only the foreign firm’s credit
rating –when it is available- but also to the credit rating of the country where the firm is
domiciled.
of how much information do sovereign rating changes convey to domestic stock markets.
Specifically, we investigate if and why a country rating matters for firms within that
country. We show that sovereign rating changes affect the terms on which a domestic
firm can get credit, creating an exogenous change in the cost of capital. We divide our
results in two: we first present the effect of rating changes at the aggregate level using
national stock indices, and then proceed to study the effect of those sovereign rating
changes on the individual firms located within those countries. Our index level results are
consistent with the extant literature on the effect of credit rating changes on U.S. firms.
upgrades. Further, we document that local stock markets react only to news of sovereign
When we look at the effect of sovereign rating changes on the cross section of
individual firms, our results suggest that sovereign credit rating changes affect larger
59
firms more. We also find that firms in poorer emerging countries experience larger drops
in the price of their shares. The fact that ratings affect asset prices is surprising based on
Wakeman (1992). In that paper, he explained that the real function of bond rating
agencies is to reduce costs of financing at issuance. According to him, a bond rating does
not determine but rather mirrors the market’s assessment of a bond’s risk, and thus
ratings should not affect but rather reflect the market’s estimation of a bond’s value.
Empirical work in this area (e. g., Holthausen and Leftwich, 1986, Cornell et al
1989) shows, however, that credit ratings convey valuable information to the bond and
stock markets. The idea is that firms disclose more information to rating agencies, which
in turn incorporate this information in their ratings in such way that the privileged
information is conveyed but not disclosed. In an international setting, one could argue
that rating agencies, in conducting their research to rate a country, develop information
that would also affect the future prospects of domestic firms. Cornell et al (1989) proved
that U.S. firms with more intangibles -which are more difficult to value- are affected
more by the information conveyed by rating changes. More recently, Jorion et.al (2004)
tested the effects of the introduction of Reg FD (Regulation Fair Disclosure) on the
informational advantage of rating agencies. Using standard methodology, they show that
both credit rating downgrades and upgrades have larger effects on stock prices after the
There are at least three reasons why stocks in foreign markets react to credit
changes of their sovereign government. Although sovereign credit ratings are not country
ratings, it is more often than not the case that the rating assigned to a non-sovereign
60
foreign entity is the same or lower than the credit rating assigned to the sovereign where
it is domiciled. This is the so-called ‘sovereign ceiling’. The concept is based on the
assumption that a sovereign default will force domestic issuers also to default because
most circumstances leading to national debt crises –e.g. balance of payment crises and
terms of trade shocks- directly affect the debt servicing capacity of private borrowers. For
instance, private firms might be forced to default in the payment of their international
obligations if their government imposes exchange controls that prevent access to foreign
currency. All these additional risks exogenous to the firm are the basis for the existence
of a cap on the ratings assigned to foreign firms, namely the sovereign ceiling.26
The sovereign ceiling is relevant for firms when it is binding, because in that case
firms are facing costs of capital artificially higher than those they should face, i.e., a
binding sovereign ceiling means the firm is paying a higher yield on its debt than it
otherwise should. When a foreign firm has stronger credit characteristics than the
sovereign where it is located and when the risk of the imposition of debt-service-limiting
foreign exchange controls is less than the risk of the sovereign defaulting, it could be
possible to observe foreign firm credit ratings higher than those assigned to the sovereign
26
A common misconception is that the sovereign rating and the sovereign ceiling are synonyms. There are
examples of countries – for instance, some east European countries- where monetary ties make it harder for
the country to impose defaulting conditions on its firms. In those cases, it is not uncommon to observe a
sovereign rating lower than the sovereign ceiling. In many countries, however, the sovereign rating remains
the best proxy to the sovereign ceiling (Durbin and Ng, 2004). The idea is based on the notion that because
firms operate under the economic framework promoted by the government, an economic downturn would
reflect itself in the domestic firm’s ability to repay their financial obligations abroad. For instance, in many
emerging countries, economic crisis were almost always associated with currency devaluations, making
foreign obligations more difficult to meet. The IMF (1991) defined this risk as ‘transfer risk’, since a
government can transfer its problems –through greater taxes, imposing currency controls or assets
expropriation- to an otherwise completely healthy firm.
27
The sovereign ceiling has not always been binding. The most notable exception is the Argentinean case,
where Standard & Poor’s allowed 14 firms in April 1997 to have higher debt ratings than that of the
61
The second reason why local stock markets might react to sovereign credit rating
changes has to do with the difficulties in collecting reliable information for most foreign
firms. Many foreign countries –emerging markets mostly- have legislations that are not
as conducive to the free flow of information from firms to its investors –actual and
potential- as the U.S. legal framework. Faced with such difficulties to obtain detailed
firm-level data, investors tend to rely on sovereign ratings as convenient and intuitive
effectively ‘painting all issuers with the same brush’. This effect seems to be even
stronger for below investment-grade than for investment-grade issuers (Cantor and
Packer, 1996).
information about the country and firms depend in many ways on the country where they
are located. Large domestic firms in these countries can typically access capital more
cheaply abroad than at home. However, a sovereign credit downgrade reduces this
advantage. In that case, the firms that can borrow abroad would be less likely to do so,
which would lead them to borrow more from at home and crowd out smaller firms.
Alternatively, large domestic firms could find it impossible to raise suitable amounts at
home because domestic financial markets are not deep enough. In this case, if foreign
borrowing becomes more expensive (i.e., higher costs of capital), firms may end up
Republic of Argentina. At that time, Moody’s severely criticized the move, calling it irresponsible, and
refused to follow suit. Interestingly, when Argentina defaulted in 2001, all these Argentinean firms
defaulted too.
62
To conduct this analysis we collected all sovereign rating changes issued by
Standard and Poor’s (S&P) and Moody’s on 29 emerging countries from 1986 until 2003.
We study the stock price reaction to 136 downgrades (81 from S&P and 55 from
Moody’s) and 100 upgrades (57 and 43 from S&P and Moody’s respectively). We also
analyze the impact of the first rating change to a given event, e.g., the first rating change
from either agency to the Mexican crisis of 1994 or to the Russian crisis of 1998.
This chapter is the first to study the effect of sovereign credit changes on the stock
located in 29 emerging countries. After computing abnormal returns for each firm, we
and country-specific variables. We document how the size and wealth of the country
where a firm is domiciled are related to the extent to which that firm will be affected by a
sovereign rating change. More importantly, we find that previous access to international
Our results are important for several reasons. Recent renowned bankruptcies –
Enron, World Com, United Airlines- have raised legitimate questions about the value we
should place on credit ratings.28 Further, recently there has been a concern that rating
agencies are late in issuing sovereign rating changes. Some authors claim that by lagging,
rating agencies contributed to boom-bust cycles. If that is the case, we should not capture
much of an effect in our empirical exercise. Yet, we find evidence of an effect that could
28
A good reference to illustrate the failure of credit ratings in capturing deteriorating conditions of the
firms mentioned in the text is: http://www.moodyskmv.com/research/UAL.html
63
informational content of sovereign rating changes, even when they are not fully
unanticipated events. Also, regulators -foreign and domestic- that conduct assessments of
risk can benefit from an improved understanding of sovereign ratings changes and their
Our results also contribute to the research pioneered by Morck, Yeung and Yu
(2000). In their work, they show that markets do not do a good job of differentiating
among firms within emerging markets. Specifically, they find that “stock prices in
economies with high per capita gross domestic product (GDP) move in a relatively
unsynchronized manner. In contrast, stock prices in low per capita GDP economies tend
to move up or down together.” In this chapter, we ask whether the price reaction of stocks
country characteristics. We do find that larger firms experience worse stock price
reactions following sovereign downgrades. Firms that have accessed international capital
government. Finally, we also find that firms located in richer countries (GDP per capita)
and in countries with more developed financial markets (stock market capitalization to
This chapter will proceed as follows. In section II we will review the existing
literature. Section III will show that there is an impact on the stock market at the index
level. We proceed to analyze the impact of sovereign rating changes on individual firms
64
4.2. Literature review
Earlier literature in the 1970s and all through the 1990s focused on the study of
the impact of rating changes of individual U.S. firms on their bond and stock prices.
Griffin and Sanvicente (1982), using monthly data, were the first ones to find evidence of
significant negative stock price reactions to rating downgrades while finding no evidence
of significant reactions to rating upgrades. Holthausen and Leftwich (1986) is the first
paper that used daily data to study the stock price reaction to credit rating changes. The
main contribution of their work was to establish that rating downgrades by Moody’s and
Standard & Poor’s provide information to the markets and impose costs to the firm by
reducing the stock’s price. They did not find a significant stock price reaction for rating
Leftwich (1986) under many different specifications and conditions (Wansley and
Clauretie (1985), Cornell, Landsman and Shapiro (1989), Hand, Holthausen and Leftwich
(1992), Goh and Ederington (1993), Goh and Ederington (1999), Dichev and Piotroski
(2001)).
Cornell, Landsman and Shapiro (1989) test whether a stock’s price response to
rating changes is related to the nature of the firm’s assets, in particular whether the stock
price response is related to the firm’s net intangible assets. They propose two hypotheses
for the existence of such a relation, both of them based on the assumption that intangible
assets are more difficult to value than tangible assets. Rating agencies, in conducting their
business, develop expertise in the valuation of intangibles which in turn gives them an
edge when it comes to firm and cash flow valuation. Their first hypothesis (investor
hypothesis) assumes that a rating change should be more informative for firms with
65
relatively large proportions of intangible assets. A second hypothesis is the non-investor
stakeholder hypothesis. Here, stakeholders in the firm –clients, suppliers, and employees-
have implicit claims that are revalued at the arrival of news on credit rating changes. The
revaluation of these implicit claims has immediate effects on a firm’s cash flows.
Although rating changes are usually anticipated, they are not fully discounted by the
market because there is uncertainty about the exact timing of the announcement. Both
hypotheses imply that the impact of new information about rating changes on a firm’s
stock price is likely to depend on the firm’s intangible assets. They do find supporting
evidence for their hypotheses when analyzing a sample credit rating changes of U.S.
firms.
Goh and Ederington (1993) looked further into the reaction to rating downgrades
by analyzing if a bond rating downgrade conveys good or bad news for stockholders.
They divided the sample of rating downgrades in those that are mechanically triggered by
increases in leverage and those that are caused by weaker prospects for the firm,
expecting to find negative stock price reactions stemming from the latter reason and
with their predictions, they find that rating deteriorations due to worse future prospects
cause a negative stock price reaction, whereas the stock price did not react on average to
credit rating changes due to changes in leverage. Hull, Pedrescu and White (2004)
analyze the relation between credit default swap spreads and credit ratings. They find that
only reviews for downgrades convey information to default swaps, confirming that
66
Although most studies consider a rating downgrade to be bad news, not all
authors agree that downgrades are bad news for shareholders. An argument initially put
forth by Holthausen and Leftwich (1986) and Zaima and McCarthy (1988) explains why
we might observe positive stock price reactions to rating downgrades. The argument is
based on a Merton-model for firm value point of view. In this case, equity holders hold
an option on the value of the firm with an exercise price equal to the par value of the
firm’s debt, and therefore an increase in the variance of the firm’s cash flows would
Goh and Ederington (1999) analyze the cross sectional variation in the stock
market reaction to bond rating changes, showing the stock markets react more negatively
to bond rating downgrades within and into junk status. They also find that downgrades
predictability in ratings.
To investigate whether capital markets consider that credit ratings convey any
Kliger and Sarig (2000) conduct a unique experiment. On April 26, 1982, Moody’s
modified its rating classification to include finer ratings. This unannounced change was
opportunity to study the informational content of credit ratings. They analyzed bond,
stock and option prices observed before and after the classification change and concluded
Dichev and Piotroski (2001) examine long-run stock returns using all Moody’s
bond rating changes between 1970 and 1997. They look at both cumulative abnormal
67
returns and buy-and-hold returns, and after controlling for size and book-to-market, find
negative abnormal returns following downgrades. Further, they document poorer returns
for downgrades of small and low-credit-quality firms. They also find evidence that
determine if credit ratings contain information beyond the one that is publicly available.
Using panel regressions including popular measures of adverse selection, they show that
firms with more adverse selection problems have lower ratings. Further, they find a
significant negative relation between the components of the adverse selection measures
related to private information and debt ratings. This relation is interpreted as evidence
that ratings contain information beyond that available in other published financial data
and that is not captured by other variables. Finally, they also find that rating agencies
often fail to react to changes in uncertainty immediately, thus causing some predictability
in rating changes. The fact that rating changes are predictable is a source of potential
On the sovereign side, Cantor and Packer (1996) looked at the determinants of
sovereign credit ratings using ratings issued by Moody's and S&P. After conducting a
variety of cross-sectional analyses, they concluded that ratings subsume all relevant
macroeconomic information. They also found that the announcement effect on bond
issuers.
68
Elayan, Hsu and Thomas (1999) conducted a comparison of the informational
content of credit rating announcements in New Zealand and in the U.S. They document a
reaction to market credit rating announcements in small markets that is different from the
reaction in large markets; in particular they find evidence of New Zealand firms’ stock
prices reacting significantly to both good and bad news conveyed by rating upgrades and
downgrades. Kaminsky and Schmukler (2002), look into the effects of rating and
outlook changes on bond and stock returns. Their methodology is different from ours.
are interested in the individual firm effects. Using a panel specification they find
evidence of rating upgrades taking place after market rallies and rating downgrades
occurring after periods of poor performance, concluding that rating agencies play a de-
Patro and Wald (2005) study the returns experienced by local firms following
equity liberalizations. They find that small, high book-to-market (BM) and low beta firms
experience higher returns following liberalization events, showing that stock prices of
Puthenpurackal (2005) show that firms accessing international debt markets via global
our chapter that previous access to international capital markets could be related to the
magnitude of the stock price impact a firm experiences after a sovereign credit change.
Some papers asked whether capital markets differentiate between rating agencies.
Beaver, Shakespeare, and Soliman (2004) study the differences in ratings provided by
certified agencies like Moody’s and credible, non-certified agencies. They find that
69
ratings by certified agencies are more conservative and less timely than those issued by
announcements in Japan and concludes that Japanese stock returns are responsive to S&P
Rating agencies have been criticized for the role they played in currency and/or
debt crises in the 1990s. Critics claim that by lagging in their rating changes, agencies
contributed to boom-bust cycles, inducing excessive flows of funds into and out of
emerging countries. Sy (2003) asks whether rating agencies anticipate currency and/or
debt crises for the sovereigns they cover. He concludes that ratings do not predict
currency crises and react ex-post to them, consistent with rating agencies’ assertion that
they measure probability of debt default, not probability of currency crises. He also finds
that lagged ratings and rating changes are useful in anticipating sovereign distress. Amato
and Furfine (2003) study if rating agencies behave in a counter-cyclical way. They find
that ratings issued by S&P do not have excessive sensitivity to the business cycle – which
is consistent with the normative view that ratings should have a long term perspective.
perspectives, so that a rating agency only changes a rating when it feels confident the
changes in a company’s risk profile are likely to be permanent. Brooks, Faff, Hillier and
Hillier (2004) study the aggregate stock market impact of sovereign rating changes from
several rating agencies. They conclude that national stock markets react to news of
Governments not only seek credit ratings to facilitate their access to international
capital markets, but also because these assessments affect the ratings of other borrowers
70
of the same nationality. As mentioned in the introduction, one way through which
sovereign ratings affect domestic firms is the sovereign ceiling. Durbin and Ng (2004)
study the instances in which the sovereign ceiling rule is broken. They match bonds from
companies based in emerging markets and match them with a corresponding sovereign
bond to measure the difference between corporate and sovereign spreads. In 20 cases (out
of a reduced sample of 28 bonds) they identify several instances in which the sovereign
ceiling rule is broken. A casual review of the characteristics of these firms suggests that
the ability to generate revenue abroad, the existence of ties with the government or an
affiliation with a foreign firm are common characteristics of these firms. Cruces (2001)
shows that sovereign credit ratings are key in determining the cost and availability of
international financing for an economy. He reasons that because there is limited ability to
enforce debt contracts subject to the regulatory authority of a foreign government, and
because governments are sovereign in their territories and have few assets beyond their
borders that can be seized by foreign court order, measures of host government sovereign
Following earlier literature (Kamisnky and Schmukler, 2002; Brooks, Faff, Hillier
and Hillier, 2004), we will analyze separately the impact of S&P and Moody’s rating
changes on stock indices. We will start with this section with data and methodology
descriptions.
71
4.3.1 Data
changes. There are three certified rating agencies that monitor emerging countries and
issue credit ratings for a number of them. These agencies are Fitch, Moody’s and
Standard and Poor’s (S&P). In this chapter we use ratings issued by Moody’s and S&P
because they cover more countries for a longer period of time. For all emerging countries
covered by each rating agency, we collected debt rating history for long-term, foreign
To rate issuers, Standard and Poor’s uses 24 different ratings, ranging from D
(lowest) to AAA (highest), with a “+” or “-“ to denote issuers above or below the mean in
each category. Moody’s has 27 ratings, from a lowest rating of C to a highest rating of
Aaa (Moody’s adds the number 1, 2, or 3 after the rating to signal an issuer above the
mean, on the mean or below the mean in each category, respectively). Each rating agency
has a slightly different threshold for so-called ‘investment grade’ issuers. Standard and
whereas Moody’s considers Baa3 (inclusive) and above as an investment grade rating.
changes. Table 13 shows the 32 emerging countries covered by Standard and Poor’s.
Korea and Thailand were among the first countries rated (1988 and 1989, respectively),
while Venezuela was the first Latin American country rated (in 1990). Bulgaria, Jamaica
and Ukraine are the most recently added countries to their watch list, in 1998, 1999 and
29
We use Standard and Poor’s Emerging Market Database as our criteria to decide which countries are
emerging markets. If a country is included in their list, it is included in ours.
72
financial turmoil in the 1990s are among the countries that experienced most credit rating
changes, so it is no surprise to see Indonesia (16), Korea (11), Russia (11), and Argentina
instance, had a slow but steady increase in credit worthiness. Other countries, like Korea
and Venezuela, had credit ratings that were all over the place, experiencing credit
upheavals that made them get very high as well as very low credit ratings. Only 8
countries (Chile, China, Czech Republic, Greece, Malaysia, Portugal, Qatar and
Thailand) have always been rated as ‘investment grade’, whereas 10 additional countries
Argentina (1986), Brazil (1986), and Malaysia (1986) are among the first countries
covered. The most recent additions to their list of covered countries are Ukraine (1998),
Chile (1999) and Egypt (2001). Although the same countries are covered, there are
important differences as to how long they have been covered and also –we can only
speculate on this- about the level of attention given to them by the rating agencies. For
instance, Indonesia (with 16 rating changes from Standard and Poor’s) only has 4 rating
changes from Moody’s. Argentina, on the other side (with 9 changes from Standard and
Poor’s) has 19 rating changes from Moody’s. Argentina (19), with Malaysia (14) and
Russia (10), are the countries with the largest number of rating changes from Moody’s.
Daily stock index data was collected from Datastream for 29 countries.
Specifically, we collected the return index (datatype RI) for Datastream’s local stock
indices in U.S. dollars. Indices not available in U.S. dollars were converted from their
73
local currency into U.S. dollars using the prevailing exchange rates available also on
Datastream. For 21 countries we use Datastream’s local stock indices, whereas for 8
more countries we use their local stock exchange index. We could not find information
4.3.2 Methodology
announcement effects: in efficient markets, the announcement effect of the event we want
to study will measure the difference between the post-announcement effect and what was
occurring, the updating element is small and the announcement effect underestimates the
impact of the event. In the case of debt ratings, rating agencies are famous for being
secretive about their decision process. Therefore, although rating changes are sometimes
anticipated, there is uncertainty about when, if at all, a rating change will occur (Cornell,
We follow the standard event study methodology by Brown and Warner (1985).
The methodology developed in that paper has been successfully applied to a wide variety
of events, for instance mergers and acquisitions and the cross listings of shares in new
markets. A common denominator of those applications is the fact that the event being the
focus of the study is rarely a ‘sudden’ occurrence. Usually, news about a merger or a
cross listing of shares is leaked or is even publicly announced prior to them taking place.
In this chapter, we are interested in the stock price reaction when news of a sovereign
74
Event studies are by definition joint tests of hypotheses. To be able to measure
abnormal returns, one has to define what a normal return is, i.e. make an assumption on
the return-generating process. More often than not, the market model is used to compute
normal returns.30 The null of event studies is that there should be no significant abnormal
average returns if the event is uncorrelated with the stock return. We will compute
Ai ,t = Ri ,t − αˆ i − βˆi Rm,t
where α̂ i and βˆi are the OLS parameters obtained from the (t-244, t-6) estimation
window, Ai ,t is the abnormal return for firm i, Ri ,t is the return for firm i, and Rm ,t is the
world market return from Datastream. We then compute the significance of the average
abnormal return for each date in the estimation window using a test statistic. The statistic
is computed as the ratio of the mean abnormal return to the estimated standard deviation
Tables 15 and 16 show the results from event studies using rating changes from
Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s, respectively. Using S&P data, we have a total of 160
rating changes, out of which 81 are rating downgrades, 57 are upgrades and 22 are initial
30
Other measures of normal returns used in the literature are mean adjusted returns (i.e. using the simple
average of a security’s daily return in some pre-defined estimation window) and market adjusted returns
(where the return of the market is subtracted from each individual firm return). Brown and Warner (1985)
showed that the OLS market model is well-specified in most cases and that it outperforms the other two
return-generating processes when some assumptions (normality, autocorrelation, etc.) are relaxed. Using
250 simulations of 50 randomly chosen stocks with daily data Brown and Warner (1985) showed that
methodologies based on the OLS-market model are well-specified.
75
rating announcements.31 Table 15, panel A has the results of the event study conducted
using S&P downgrades. There seems to be evidence of news leaking to the market a few
days before the actual announcement, which is consistent with anecdotical evidence as
Rating changes usually don’t strike like bolts of lightning, but rather many times they are
‘telegraphed’ to the market days in advance. This could explain the fact that abnormal
returns for t-3, t-2, t-1 and 0 are statistically significant. Also, cumulative abnormal
returns (CAR) for the (-5, +5) and (-1,+1) are negative and statistically significant at the
1% level. The 11-day CAR for rating downgrades is -2.8% (t-stat of -2.37), while the 3-
day CAR is -1.8% (t-stat of -2.95). Figure 17 illustrates a negative trend of both the daily
abnormal return (bars) and the cumulative abnormal return (line) starting at t-5.
Panel B of Table 15 has the results from the analysis of rating upgrades issued by
stock price reaction to rating upgrades. No single abnormal return in the (-5, +5) period is
significant, and the visual inspection of figure 18 –which displays abnormal returns and
Table 16 presents the results of the analysis using Moody’s rating changes.
Moody’s has 53 downgrades, 45 upgrades and 19 initial rating announcements for the
countries in our sample. Panel A has the results for Moody’s rating downgrades.
Although the abnormal returns at t-4 and t-1 are negative and significant at the 1% and
5% level, the 11-day and 3-day cumulative abnormal returns are statistically
insignificant. These results seem to suggest that, for sovereigns, Moody’s ratings are
31
The reason we have only 22 initial rating announcements is that not all countries had index data
available at the time their initial sovereign credit rating was announced.
76
considered as less informative by the local stock markets.32 Panel B of Table 16 shows
the results of rating upgrades. Just as it was the case with Standard and Poor’s upgrades,
Ours is not the first paper to find that outside the U.S. Standard and Poor’s ratings
are considered more informative than ratings issued by Moody’s. Mollemans (2004) finds
a similar result looking at Japanese firms, and Beaver, Shakespeare, and Soliman (2004)
document the different stock price reactions to ratings issued from certified and non-
certified rating agencies. Hu, Kiesel and Perraudin (2001) opted for S&P ratings over
Moody’s to estimate transition matrices for sovereign ratings because they were more
informative, although they noted that of a sample of 49 sovereigns rated by both agencies
at the time they wrote their paper, 28 had the same rating, 14 were apart by only one
consistent with the extant literature. Now we try two different approaches. One is to use
the initial rating announcement by either agency of a credit rating for a country, i.e., the
first time a country is rated. By definition, this is a good news event. Non-rated countries
–or investment bankers acting on their behalf- initiate contacts with rating agencies when
they want to access international capital markets for the first time, when they want to
improve the terms under which they access international capital markets or to attract
foreign investors into its local debt or equity markets. Countries would hire a rating
32
One difference that becomes evident from looking at the breakdown of rating change announcements is
that Moody’s makes more ‘outlook’ change announcements than Standard and Poor’s. An outlook change
is a warning issued by the rating agency, usually stating that a country’s rating is under review or under
stress. Although not all warnings materialize in actual rating changes (only about 60% of them do), and not
all changes are preceded by warnings, one possibility we had to consider is that stock prices react to
outlook announcements and not to actual rating changes. We re-run our analysis using outlook
announcements dates and still found no significant abnormal returns for Moody’s data.
77
agency when their prospects are good, and therefore when they have reasonable high
expectations of being rated favorably. 33 Viewed in this light, initial ratings are usually
good news, and our expectation is to find favorable stock price reactions to the
observed for rating upgrades. Table 17 has the results for this experiment. We have 17
countries with data going back far enough to cover the date of the initial rating. Of those
17 countries, 10 had initial ratings by S&P and 10 by Moody’s. We do not find any
evidence of a significant reaction across countries to these events, just as it was the case
The second approach is to look at the impact of the first rating change issued by
either agency to a given event. This is not straightforward, as Moody’s and S&P rating
changes do not move in tandem. For instance, in the 1990-2003 period Moody’s had 19
rating changes for Argentina while S&P had only 9. We proceeded by defining pairs of
events of any two rating changes by both agencies that took place within a six month
period. The earliest announcement within each pair is what we consider as first rating.
Table 18 has the complete list of paired rating changes for Argentina.34 It shows which
agency is identified with providing –chronologically- the first rating if both agencies
changed a country’s rating within a six month period. We did this pairing of ratings for
each one of the 29 countries in the sample, and ended up with 40 downgrades (21 were
from S&P and 19 from Moody’s) and with 38 upgrades (21 from Moody’s and 38 from
S&P).
33
See Martell and Stulz (2003).
34
Tables for all the countries included in this paper are omitted for brevity and available upon request.
78
Table 19 has the results of this analysis of first ratings. As with the complete
sample of rating changes, we only find significant results for rating downgrades. Panel A
has the results from analyzing sovereign downgrades by S&P (21) and by Moody’s (19).
The difference in the stock reaction to ratings issued by each agency is evident.
Downgrades issued by S&P are associated with a negative 11-day abnormal cumulative
return of 6%, significant at the 1% level. The 3-day CAR is also negative and significant.
No CAR computed from announcements by Moody’s is significant, and what’s more, the
11-day CAR is positive (although not significant). Overall, Table 19 provides evidence
that financial markets react only to sovereign credit downgrades issued by Standard and
Poor’s.
Summarizing our index level results, we find evidence of emerging stock indices
reacting to news of sovereign rating downgrades, i.e., we find significant 3-day and 11-
find no evidence of a significant stock market reaction to the news of sovereign upgrades.
We also find evidence of local stock markets reacting more to sovereign rating changes
domestic stock indices. This analysis, however, leaves several important questions
unanswered. For instance, does a change in a sovereign rating affect the terms on which a
domestic firm can get credit? If so, does it affect all firms in the same way? This begets
the question of why does the country rating matter for domestic firms. If a sovereign
79
rating change causes an exogenous change in the cost of capital, it is important to
understand whether that exogenous change is the same for all firms and whether firm
characteristics are related to the magnitude of the stock price impact of that exogenous
shock.
One possibility is that all firms are affected in the same way following a sovereign
credit change. For instance, a sovereign credit rating downgrade leads to an increase in
sovereign yield that can signal that the country as a whole is a riskier place, e.g. it is a
place with higher probability of expropriation, and/or can also signal an increased level of
market segmentation, all of which would mean that the expected return on all local stocks
should increase. This would be consistent with the work by Morck, Yeung and Yu
(2000). They showed that stock prices moved together more in emerging countries than
in richer countries and conclude that political events in low-income countries can create
market-wide stock price swings, mainly because poorer economies offer less
worsening of rating that increases political risk, and can be seen domestically as a
The first step is to investigate if prior access to international capital markets does
affect firms’ stock reactions to sovereign rating changes. We split our sample according
to whether a firm has an ADR trading abroad, an Eurobond issue, or both. Table 20
presents abnormal returns from sovereign downgrades (panel A) and upgrades (panel B).
As expected, all the action takes place in panel A. Oddly, CARs from firms with and
without ADR issues are nearly identical. CARs for firms with international debt,
however, are much more negative than those of firms with no international debt. This
80
suggests that firms that already have an international debt issue will probably need to tap
sovereign downgrade will induce an exogenous worsening of the terms under which these
firms got their international credit. Therefore, these firms are more sensitive to sovereign
downgrades.
To investigate further which firm characteristics are associated with the observed
behavior of stock prices after sovereign credit changes, we will compute individual
abnormal returns and then estimate cross-sectional regressions of those returns on a group
of variables that capture firm and country characteristics. We will compute abnormal
returns for each firm included in Datastream’s stock indices using a simple CAPM
framework (i.e., market model). Our firm accounting data comes from Worldscope. For
each firm, we collected intangible assets (item 02649), total assets (item 02999), total
debt (item 03255), total revenues (item 07240), and cash plus short term investments
(item 02001). We also collected other items like foreign income as a percentage of total
income (item 08741) and total interest expense (item 01075), but decided not to use them
as their reduced availability impacted severely on our sample size. Following Morck et al
(2000) we collected GDP per capita and stock market capitalization of public firms as a
percentage of GDP from the World Bank’s Economic Indicators database. All variables
were converted to U.S. dollars using prevailing exchange rates collected from
Datastream. Cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) were computed in the same way as in
the previous section, using market model adjusted returns. We report z-statistics instead
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We also collected data on firm’s access to international equity and debt markets,
gathering information from Citibank and The Bank of New York on ADRs (all levels)
that traded in the U.S. from 1990 to 2003. Out of 385 firms with ADRs in the countries
included in this chapter, 156 are included in our sample. We also got data from SDC and
Datastream on all live and dead non-sovereign bonds from countries in our sample and
manually matched them. We ended up with 228 firms that had at least one bond trading
in international markets at the time of the sovereign rating change. As expected because
regulatory requirements are less stringent for debt issuance than for equity raising, we
have more firms accessing international debt markets than international equity markets.
goes as follows. Healthy firms might choose to go abroad to get financing because it
might be cheaper to do so or because their financial needs are not fulfilled in domestic
financial markets. When the government of the country where a firm is domiciled is
downgraded, these firms suddenly find –everything else equal- that the terms on which
they access international markets deteriorate. This will in turn raise the cost of capital for
new projects, making some of them unprofitable and therefore reducing future cash
flows, all of which translates into lower stock prices. Since these firms came to rely on
international financing on a regular basis, we hypothesize that firms that have accessed
international capital markets in the past –either equity markets via an ADR program or
debt via an international bond offering- would experience larger negative stock price
reactions following a sovereign downgrade and larger positive stock price reactions
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Table 21 shows results obtained from regressing individual firm cumulative
abnormal returns following sovereign downgrades on several firm and country variables.
Ai ,t = Ri ,t − αˆ i − βˆi Rm,t
where α̂ i and βˆi are the OLS parameters obtained from the estimation window,
Ai ,t is the abnormal return for firm i, Ri ,t is the return for firm i, and Rm ,t is the world
market return from Datastream, all of them denominated in dollars. We include country
dummies to control for country fixed effects, although for brevity we do not report the
35
results of each intercept. We are using the world market return to make these returns
Panels A and B show 3 and 11-day dollar CARs, respectively. Availability of firm
accounting data on Worldscope is of some concern, since our sample got reduced from
are much better than the ones obtained by previous research, although most of the
explanatory power comes from the fixed country effects specification. In panel A, the
minimum R-square value for 3-day abnormal returns is 24.7% and the max R-square
value is 28.21%, whereas in Panel B (11-day CARs) the min R-square is 15.29% and the
max is 21.72%. Both panels have a qualitatively similar story, although since results are
running a fixed effects regression with country level effects) and a constant. The second
35
Detailed regression results are available upon request.
83
regression specification on panel A includes dummies to control for the existence of
ADRs and/or international bonds, and we find that only the latter has a negative
significant coefficient. This result, however, reverses strongly in all other regression
specifications when we include size proxies, log of GDP per capita and the country’s
stock market capitalization to GDP. Not only has the ADR dummy a significant and
negative coefficient, but its interaction with the log of total assets also has a significant
coefficient (positive). In all cases, the log of GDP per capita and the market capitalization
to GDP are significant at the 1% level and positive. Two proxies for size, the log of total
assets and revenues to total assets have negative coefficients, significant at least at the
10% level. Interestingly, the measure of intangible assets as proportion of total assets
never has a significant coefficient, although the negative sign is consistent with Cornell et
al (1989).
Even though we conducted regressions controlling for fixed country effects, the
log of GDP per capita and the proportion of stock market capitalization to GDP always
have positive and significant coefficients. These results suggest that firms located in
richer countries (as measured by GDP per capita) experience smaller stock price drops
following a downgrade of their government’s debt. The richer a country is, the more
diversified we expect its economy to be and therefore there will be a richer variety of
economic activities in which domestic firms can engage, making firms less sensitive to
systematic shocks (Morck et al, 2000). Also, firms located in countries with more
experience smaller price reductions although the coefficients associated with this variable
84
are at least two orders of magnitude smaller than the coefficients associated with the log
of GDP.
The two variables we use to proxy for firm size, log of total assets and revenues
over total assets, are consistent in the story they tell. Both have negative and significant
coefficients in every specification in panel A. It is sensible to think that only larger firms
will outgrow local financial markets to the point that they need to go abroad to get the
needed financing, making them more sensitive to exogenous shocks to the cost of
international financing.
using CARs following sovereign credit upgrades. Although the index-level results did not
produce significant abnormal returns, this does not mean that there is no information in
the cross section. As with Table 21, panel A of Table 22 has the results from regressions
that use 3-day CARs as the dependent variable, while panel B uses 11-day CARs.
Although both panels have the same qualitative picture, panel B has a sharper picture and
our description shall focus on it. Interestingly, the coefficients for log of GDP per capita
and stock market capitalization to GDP have the opposite sign as before (now it is
negative). This result is significant at the 1% level for both variables. Both size proxies
to assets has a significant positive coefficient, as well as the proportion of total debt to
total assets. Most importantly, having had any type of access to international capital
Overall, the picture that emerges from Tables 21 and 22 is one consistent with
sovereign credit changes having an asymmetric impact on the stock prices of domestic
85
firms. Larger firms experience larger reductions in their stock price following sovereign
downgrades yet they do not experience larger increases when a sovereign upgrade is
announced. We think this reflects the exogenous cost imposed on the firm by a sovereign
downgrade, especially in the case where the sovereign ceiling is binding. If a firm’s
rating is constrained by the sovereign rating, a drop in sovereign rating will force an
increase in the cost of international debt for that firm. An increase in sovereign rating, on
the other hand, does not reduce the cost of international debt. Larger firms are more
Firms with more debt as a proportion of total assets benefit more from a sovereign
upgrade yet their stock prices are not punished as much when their sovereign government
is downgraded. Firms located in richer countries and in countries with more developed
financial markets experience smaller losses in their stock prices following a downgrade
but also experience smaller gains following upgrades of their sovereign government.
Finally, having accessed international equity and/or debt markets makes a firm more
vulnerable to sovereign downgrades but does not grant any additional benefits when the
host government is upgraded. This effect is more important for larger firms, as evidenced
4.5. Conclusions
In this chapter we analyzed the impact of sovereign credit rating changes on local
stock markets. In the first part of the chapter, we established that local stock indices from
consistent with the results of existing domestic literature. We also established that
86
international markets consider rating changes from S&P more informative than rating
We then looked at the effect of sovereign rating changes on individual firm stock
prices. Analyzing the cross section of abnormal returns of 1281 firms, we found that
firms located in richer countries and in countries with more developed financial markets
government. Our evidence also suggests that larger firms are more sensitive to sovereign
downgrades, as well as firms that have accessed international equity or debt markets.
Our results are relevant for domestic and foreign investors, firms located in
emerging countries and regulators. Local regulators can better assess the risks faced by
the firms they are supposed to regulate. Further, a better understanding of how these
country-wide shocks affect local firms can help them engage in more efficient ways to
87
CHAPTER 5
CONCLUSIONS
This dissertation contributes to three literatures in finance. The first essay sheds
light on the determinants of debt yield spreads for countries and firms. This essay
identified the existence of a two strong common components, unrelated to credit risk and
distinct for each type of debt, in credit spreads of non-U.S. sovereign bonds and domestic
U.S. corporate bonds. Using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, I find that domestic
spreads are related to the lagged first common component of sovereign spreads. While
common component when focusing on the dynamics of these spreads. Traditional macro-
liquidity variables are related to the common components found in domestic and
sovereign spread changes, raising the explanatory power of the VAR equations from a
minimum R-square value of 5% to a maximum value of 67%. Flows in and out equity
and bond funds explain more of the variation in the common components than net
The first essay contributes to the literature on the dynamics of credit spreads by
showing that current structural models of debt spreads can be improved if these findings
are incorporated in them. To the extent that investors depend on these models to hedge
88
the credit risk of their bond positions, they can benefit from a better understanding of the
determinants of credit spreads changes. This essay also shows that, after taking into
account the dynamics of the common components in credit spreads across different debt
instruments, the cost of debt for firms and countries depends to some extent on shocks
Latin American local stock indices, the S&P 500 and Latin American ADRs. I find
evidence of asymmetric behavior in the left and right tails of the joint marginal extreme
distributions for six Latin American countries. I also identified differences in extreme
correlations for different instruments (investing in ADRs vs. investing directly in the
local stock markets) where no difference was to be expected. Finally, this essay
documents evidence of a structural change in the correlations for the Mexican case before
The third and final dissertation essay analyzed the impact of sovereign credit
rating changes on local stock markets. I first established that local stock indices from 29
consistent with the results of the existing literature on U.S. ratings changes. I also
established that international markets consider rating changes from S&P more
When I look at the effect of sovereign rating changes on individual firm stock
prices, interesting patterns arise. I document an average price drop of 8% for the firms in
my sample following a sovereign downgrade. This drop is more pronounced for firms
that have issued debt abroad (negative 12%). When I analyze the cross-section of
89
abnormal returns to sovereign upgrades and downgrades, I find that firms located in
richer countries and in countries with more developed financial markets experience
smaller stock price reductions following a downgrade of their host government. Also,
larger firms, as well as firms that have accessed international equity or debt markets, are
more sensitive to sovereign downgrades,. This finding suggests that larger firms – which
are more likely to find themselves financially constrained in their domestic financial
markets - rely more on external sources of financing. The cost of accessing these external
sources of financing is exogenously increased for these firms when news of a sovereign
downgrade reaches the markets. This effect is even more pronounced for firms that have
previously enjoyed access to international capital markets, as they tend to rely more in
90
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98
APPENDIX A
99
Researchers have access today to two main sources for international bond data
time series. One is Datastream International and the other one is the Fixed Income
Securities Database provided by the University of Houston (the Warga database). Both
databases differ in format, coverage, and data providers. While Datastream does not
make public the identity of their data provider due to legal technicalities, I found through
informal conversations with their support staff that Lehman Brothers and ISMA
(International Securities Market Association) are among their main data providers. The
inclusion of Lehman Brothers as a data provider for Datastream is re-assuring since prior
to 1998 Lehman Brothers used to be the main source of fixed income instruments data
compare the set of bonds available on both. Ideally, I would have wanted to compute
correlations of monthly returns for the bonds on both databases, however, that is not
possible because the Warga database does not provide with time series data for the bonds
it covers. Before conducting the comparison I will make a brief description of the Warga
data. This $12,000 database comes in two CDs. The first one contains Microsoft Access
files that include lots of tables with exhaustive information (static) data for 157,488
different bonds issued by 10,057 different issuers. When I filter out sovereign issues
using the included ‘industry_code’ variable, I come up with 1,579 bond issues from 146
sovereign issuers. The files in the first CD, however, do not contain any price information
other than prices at launch. The second CD includes information from all insurance
companies’ buys and sells of instruments in the first CD for 1995-1999, provided by
NAIC –National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Although the web site for this
100
database (http://www.bauer.uh.edu/awarga/comp.html) says that price information is
available up until 2001, the last update purchased a few months ago by the finance
department at Ohio State includes only data up to the end of 1999. Since the price
information is only for the purchase and sell of securities, and because many of these
securities do not trade frequently, it is not possible to construct a regular time series –say
monthly- with prices for these issues. Further, the price data comes in four files: two files
for purchases and two files for sales. The first pair of files covers the 1995-1998 period
and the second set covers the 1998-1999 period. Datastream has continuous coverage
The only way to automatically link information from Datastream and the Warga
data is through the ISIN (International Security Identification Number) code, which is
dissertation essay, Datastream has codes (a code is Datastream’s own id number) for 291
different bonds. Out of those 291 different sovereign bonds, there is ISIN information for
markets on the Warga price files. There are total 105 different bonds across all four
pricing files. Table 2 shows that there 73, 58, 88 and 89 unique bonds in each file.
However, not all those bonds are present in Datastream. Only 40, 35, 55 and 56 bonds
from each Warga file respectively are in both databases. As mentioned before, there are
not nearly enough observations per bond to construct a time series. The average number
of observations per bond is 10, the minimum is 1 (and also the mode) and the maximum
is 30, although in those cases there are many observations clustered around certain
101
periods of time, and therefore having 30 observations does not mean we have 30 monthly
observations. So, we end up with 552, 221, 844 and 745 –respectively- usable data points
where we have clean price information for a specific bond on an the same date. Simple
clean price correlations range between 92% and 97%, whereas holding period return
correlations between Datastream and Warga data range from 73% to 89%.
These numbers make us feel more comfortable with the overall quality of
Datastream data, at least for sovereign data. In my job market paper I use yields from
Datastream, and being that yields are only complex transformations of clean prices, the
relevant correlations are the one between clean prices. Further, it seems clear that
Datastream has a better coverage of sovereign issues (276 vs. 105 bonds in the 35
emerging market countries analyzed here), plus a deeper one (this updated version of the
Warga database only has data from 1994 until the end of 1999). Hopefully, this quick
analysis should ease concerns about the integrity and quality of Datastream bond price
data.
102
APPENDIX B
TABLES
103
Variables Expected sign Rationale
Life to maturity Uncertain Stulz (2003) explains how the relation between time to
maturity and credit spreads depends on the relative size of
debt and firm value. Helwege and Turner (1999) establish
that due to survivorship bias only relatively better rated
countries issue longer-term debt. Also, investors might
perceive shorter-term sovereign bonds as having higher
probability of default and therefore higher expected losses.
This belief is reinforced by the fact that some countries'
debt do not incorporate cross-default clauses, making easier
for countries facing financial distress default first on issues
with closer maturities. Longer-term bonds are, in this
setting, perceived as safer since countries could have time
to implement reforms that bring them out of financial
distress.
Debt to foreign Positive A higher ratio of any of these two measures implies a
reserves ratio smaller distance-to-default. So, larger values of them
and should be associated with higher spreads.
Debt to exports ratio
Country risk measure Positive This measure has a higher value for countries that are
perceived to have higher political risks, for instance, higher
expropriation risk. The larger the value of this variable, the
higher the debt spread.
Local stock market Positive This variable is an imperfect proxy of a country’s wealth
volatility volatility. Still, we expect a positive relation since more
volatility makes default more likely.
U.S. Treasury yield Negative Assuming that the country’s wealth follows a risk-neutral
curve level drift, higher rates should be associated with higher drifts
which in turn should reduce debt spreads. Also, Stulz
(2003) shows how debt value decreases with maturity. This
reduced the probability of default, and ergo, spreads.
U.S. Treasury yield Negative We assume a positive slope to signal higher future interest
curve slope rates. The previous arguments then suggest a negative
relation between spreads and the interest rate slope.
World return Negative A world index return is included as a proxy of the world
economic climate or business cycle. On average, we would
expect smaller spreads when the world as a whole is doing
well.
Table 1. Expected signs on explanatory variables for sovereign sample.
104
Panel A: Descriptive Statistics for Spreads
Credit Spread (%) All sample AAA to A+ A to BBB- BB+ to B B- to C No rating
105
∆Spread over U.S. Treasury AAA to BBB- BB+ to B B- to C Overall sample
This table shows estimates from an OLS regression model with Newey-West adjusted errors. We estimated the following equation to
each bond observation: ∆Spreadi,t = Constant + β1*∆Debt to foreign reserves ratioi,t + β2*∆Country risk measurei,t + β3*∆U.S.
Treasury yield curve levelt + β4*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve slopet + β5*∆Local volatilityi,t-1 + β6*Local returnt-1 + β7*∆Years to
maturityi,t + εi,t. We estimated eight different specifications of this basic equation, substituting duration for years to maturity and debt to
exports for debt to reserves. Years to maturity is the remaining life of a bond expressed in years, duration is a Macaulay’s duration
expressed in years, debt to reserves is the ratio of total debt outstanding (bank loans, Brady and Eurobond issues) denominated in U.S.
dollars divided by the total amount of international reserves also denominated in U.S. dollars. Debt to exports is the ratio of total debt
outstanding (bank loans, Brady and Eurobond issues) denominated in U.S. dollars divided by the nominal monthly value of exports in
U.S. dollars. Political risk is the value of The Economist Intelligence Unit's country index. Local stock market volatility is the standard
volatility computed each month from daily stock market returns in U.S. dollars. The U.S. Treasury yield level is the yield of the 10 year
U.S. Treasury note. The U.S. Treasury slope is computed as the difference between the yield of the 10 year and the 2 year U.S. Treasury
notes. The world stock return is the log return of Datastream's world total return index. Absolute value of t statistics are in parentheses;
*, **, *** denote significance at the 10%; 5%; and 1% level respectively.
106
Variables Expected sign Rationale
Life to maturity Uncertain Stulz (2003) explains how the relation between time to
maturity and credit spreads depends on the relative size of
debt and firm value. Helwege and Turner (1999) establish
that due to survivorship bias only relatively better rated
countries issue longer-term debt. Also, investors might
perceive shorter-term sovereign bonds as having higher
probability of default and therefore higher expected losses.
This belief is reinforced by the fact that some countries'
debt do not incorporate cross-default clauses, making easier
for countries facing financial distress default first on issues
with closer maturities. Longer-term bonds are, in this
setting, perceived as safer since countries could have time
to implement reforms that bring them out of financial
distress.
Leverage Positive A higher leverage ratio increases the probability of a firm
and facing financial distress. This should increase spreads.
Equity return Also, from a contingent claims approach, equity return
volatility volatility can proxy for firm's value volatility. A higher
volatility increases the chance of the firm's value process to
cross the threshold at which a firm defaults on its debt.
U.S. Treasury yield Negative Assuming that the firm's value follows a risk-neutral drift,
curve level higher rates should be associated with higher drifts which
in turn should reduce debt spreads. Also, Stulz (2003)
shows how debt value decreases with maturity. This
reduced the probability of default, and ergo, spreads.
U.S. Treasury yield Negative We assume a positive slope to signal higher future interest
curve slope rates. The previous arguments then suggest a negative
relation between spreads and the interest rate slope.
S&P 500 return Negative As the economic environment improves, measured by the
S&P return, we expect firms to do better and therefore to
reduce the probability of defaulting on their debt.
107
Panel A: Descriptive Statistics for Debt Spreads
No
Overall Leverage Class leverage
Credit Spread (%) sample Low Medium High data
Leverage 0.343
Std. Dev. 0.023
U.S. Treasury yield level (%) 5.285
U.S. Treasury yield slope 1.326
The sample includes all non-callable, non-puttable domestic bonds issued by industrial firms in U.S. dollars that traded between
January 1990 and January 2003. All data is from Datastream. The spread over U.S. Treasuries is computed as the difference
between the redemption yield of the sovereign bond and the value of a linear interpolation of the U.S. Treasury yield curve to
obtain the yield of a U.S. instrument with identical maturity. Leverage is computed as the ratio of book value of debt divided by
the sum of book value of debt and market value of equity. Stock market volatility is computed monthly from daily stock market
log returns. The U.S. Treasury yield level is the yield of the 10 year U.S. Treasury note. The U.S. Treasury slope is computed as
the difference between the yield of the 10 year and the 2 year U.S. Treasury notes.
108
Leverage Class Overall
∆Spread over U.S. Treasury Low Medium High sample
This table shows estimates from an OLS regression model with Newey-West adjusted errors. We estimated the
following equation to each bond observation: ∆Spreadi,t = Constant + β1*∆Leverage ratioi,t + β2*∆Stock return
volatilityi,t + β3*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve levelt + β4*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve slopet + β5*S&P index returni,t-1 +
β6*∆Years to maturityi,t + εi,t. We estimated six different specifications of this basic equation, substituting duration and
modified duration for years to maturity. Years to maturity is the remaining life of a bond expressed in years, duration
is a Macaulay’s duration expressed in years, modified duration is estimated as duration divided by (1+ redemption
yield).Stock return volatility is the standard volatility of each firm's stock return computed each month from daily log
returns in U.S. dollars. The U.S. Treasury yield level is the yield of the 10 year U.S. Treasury note. The U.S. Treasury
slope is computed as the difference between the yield of the 10 year and the 2 year U.S. Treasury notes. The S&P
index return is the log return of Datastream's S&P 500 total return index. Absolute value of t statistics are in
parentheses; *, **, *** denote significance at the 10%; 5%; and 1% level respectively.
109
Panel A: Sovereign bins
s11 s12 s13 s21 s22 s23 s31 s32 s33
s11 1.000
s12 0.826 1.000
s13 -0.007 0.511 1.000
s21 0.997 0.817 -0.004 1.000
s22 0.828 0.953 0.459 0.818 1.000
s23 0.367 0.781 0.895 0.369 0.773 1.000
s31 0.983 0.821 0.011 0.989 0.822 0.370 1.000
s32 0.891 0.896 0.259 0.886 0.966 0.624 0.897 1.000
s33 0.820 0.932 0.394 0.801 0.950 0.708 0.806 0.946 1.000
d11 1.000
d12 0.978 1.000
d13 0.616 0.622 1.000
d21 0.967 0.968 0.744 1.000
d22 0.921 0.955 0.707 0.928 1.000
d23 0.685 0.673 0.856 0.747 0.747 1.000
d31 0.930 0.971 0.679 0.954 0.943 0.633 1.000
d32 0.859 0.920 0.712 0.893 0.973 0.659 0.960 1.000
d33 0.865 0.874 0.876 0.909 0.915 0.797 0.909 0.922 1.000
continued...
Table 7 continued
Panel C: Sovereign and Domestic bins
s11 s12 s13 s21 s22 s23 s31 s32 s33 d11 d12 d13 d21 d22 d23 d31 d32 d33
s11 1.000
s12 0.826 1.000
s13 -0.007 0.511 1.000
s21 0.997 0.817 -0.004 1.000
s22 0.828 0.953 0.459 0.818 1.000
s23 0.367 0.781 0.895 0.369 0.773 1.000
s31 0.983 0.821 0.011 0.989 0.822 0.370 1.000
s32 0.891 0.896 0.259 0.886 0.966 0.624 0.897 1.000
s33 0.820 0.932 0.394 0.801 0.950 0.708 0.806 0.946 1.000
d11 0.227 0.119 -0.168 0.221 0.068 -0.087 0.205 0.101 0.100 1.000
d12 0.248 0.127 -0.173 0.245 0.117 -0.079 0.242 0.157 0.114 0.978 1.000
d13 -0.211 0.063 0.464 -0.182 0.092 0.388 -0.159 -0.046 -0.094 0.616 0.622 1.000
d21 0.064 0.073 0.020 0.065 0.082 0.054 0.065 0.070 0.057 0.967 0.968 0.744 1.000
d22 0.194 0.154 -0.004 0.212 0.150 0.074 0.210 0.142 0.036 0.921 0.955 0.707 0.928 1.000
111
d23 -0.156 0.193 0.572 -0.141 0.100 0.440 -0.124 -0.079 -0.005 0.685 0.673 0.856 0.747 0.747 1.000
d31 0.159 0.062 -0.143 0.160 0.129 -0.059 0.181 0.173 0.074 0.930 0.971 0.679 0.954 0.943 0.633 1.000
d32 0.161 0.086 -0.058 0.181 0.160 0.032 0.196 0.177 0.005 0.859 0.920 0.712 0.893 0.973 0.659 0.960 1.000
d33 -0.003 0.075 0.173 0.020 0.116 0.172 0.040 0.057 -0.063 0.865 0.874 0.876 0.909 0.915 0.797 0.909 0.922 1.000
This table presents the correlation structure of the residual bins. Each sample (sovereign and domestic) was divided in three maturity categories and three leverage (debt to
reserves, in the sovereign case) categories. The cutoff values for each category were determined using the 33rd and 66th centile to ensure an approximately equal number of
observations in each bin. Each observation was assigned to a category. To compute the residuals, regressions were conducted in each bin. Then, for each bin, we average across
residuals. The bins are named dij and sij for i, j=1, 2, 3, where d stands for domestic and s stands for sovereign, i for maturity category (1 = shot-term, 2 = medium-term, 3 =
long-term), and j stand for leverage (debt to reserves) category (1 = low, 2 = medium, 3 = high). For example, d23 refers to a domestic, medium-term, high-leverage bin. Each
sovereign bin contains 66 observations, while each domestic bin contains 148 observations.
Eigenvalue
10.0
Panel B: Domestic bins 8.0
Component Eigenvalue Difference Proportion Cumulative
1 7.7606 6.9927 0.8623 0.8623 6.0
2 0.7679 0.5152 0.0853 0.9476 4.0
3 0.2527 0.1142 0.0281 0.9757
4 0.1385 0.0932 0.0154 0.9911 2.0
0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Component
Eigenvalue
8.0
7.0
Panel C: Domestic and Sovereign bins 6.0
Component Eigenvalue Difference Proportion Cumulative 5.0
1 7.5705 1.6083 0.4206 0.4206 4.0
2 5.9621 2.9935 0.3312 0.7518 3.0
3 2.9687 2.3462 0.1649 0.9167 2.0
4 0.6225 0.2166 0.0346 0.9513 1.0
0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Component
This table presents the results of applying principal components analysis to the residuals. Each sample (sovereign and
domestic) was divided in three maturity categories and three leverage (debt to reserves, in the sovereign case) categories.
Each observation was assigned to a category. For each bond in each sovereign bin we estimated the following equation:
∆Spreadi,t = Constant + β1*∆Debt to foreign reserves ratioi,t + β2*∆Country risk measurei,t + β3*∆U.S. Treasury yield
curve levelt + β4*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve slopet + β5*∆Local volatilityi,t-1 + β6*Local returnt-1 + β7*∆Years to maturityi,t
+ εi,t. For bonds in the domestic bins the following equation was estimated: ∆Spreadi,t = Constant + β1*∆Leverage ratioi,t +
β2*∆Stock return volatilityi,t + β3*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve levelt + β4*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve slopet + β5*S&P index
returni,t-1 + β6*∆Years to maturityi,t + εi,t. Residuals for each bond were computed and averaged across bins. For ease of
interpretation, only the first four components are shown for each panel.
112
Sovereign bonds Domestic bonds
Overall Leverage Class Overall
∆Spread over U.S. Treasury AAA to BBB- BB+ to B B- to C sample ∆Spread over U.S. Treasury Low Medium High sample
Constant 0.203 -0.063 -1.055 -0.067 Constant 0.026 -0.019 0.103 0.019
(0.65) (0.81) (0.35) (0.72) (1.14) (0.83) (1.06) (0.68)
∆Years to maturity 2.875 -0.892 -14.339 -1.213 ∆Years to maturity 0.175 -0.006 1.009 0.109
(0.77) (0.97) (0.40) (1.10) (0.64) (0.02) (0.88) (0.33)
∆Debt to foreign reserves 0.103 0.035 1.047 0.125 ∆Leverage -0.673 0.147 0.198 0.141
(0.86) (2.64)*** (6.80)*** (7.01)*** (2.78)*** (0.86) (0.56) (0.83)
∆Political risk 0.023 0.019 0.086 0.049 ∆leverage lagged 4.122 1.19 7.622 5.393
(2.06)** (2.44)** (2.24)** (5.77)*** (17.10)*** (7.08)*** (21.00)*** (31.64)***
∆Political risk lagged 0.031 0.022 -0.026 0.024 ∆Stock return volatility 0.936 -1.009 2.033 1.495
(2.76)*** (2.89)*** (0.67) (2.83)*** (2.29)** (1.86)* (2.26)** (3.57)***
∆Political risk 2nd lag -0.01 0.004 0.046 0.021 ∆Stock return volatility lagged 4.487 3.281 12.396 9.197
(0.92) (0.56) (1.19) (2.42)** (11.46)*** (6.39)*** (14.37)*** (22.91)***
∆U.S. Treasury level
∆Local volatility lagged -0.005 0.054 0.113 0.052 -0.085 -0.17 -0.26 -0.18
(0.72) (10.49)*** (3.95)*** (9.20)*** (3.65)*** (6.13)*** (3.25)*** (6.42)***
113
continued...
Table 9 continued
1st factor domestic lagged 2dn factor sovereign lagged
0.013 0.036 -0.192 0.002 -0.013 -0.015 -0.003 -0.004
(1.85)* (5.07)*** (2.93)*** 0.00 (3.23)*** (2.90)*** (0.17) (0.78)
2dn factor domestic lagged
-0.084 -0.13 0.492 -0.07
(4.04)*** (6.79)*** (2.74)*** (3.23)***
Observations 1405 3460 513 5504 Observations 6630 5735 5864 18229
R-squared 0.20 0.35 0.31 0.20 R-squared 0.11 0.08 0.16 0.12
This table shows estimates from an OLS regression model with Newey-West adjusted errors. We estimated the following equation to each sovereign bond observation: ∆Spreadi,t = Constant + β1*∆Debt
to foreign reserves ratioi,t + β2*∆Country risk measurei,t + β3*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve levelt + β4*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve slopet + β5*∆Local volatilityi,t-1 + β6*Local returnt-1 + β7*∆Years to
maturityi,t+ β8*1st factor domestict + β9*2nd factor domestict + εi,t. For each domestic bond. we estimated the following equation: ∆Spreadi,t = Constant + β1*∆Leverage ratioi,t + β2*∆Stock return
volatilityi,t + β3*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve levelt + β4*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve slopet + β5*S&P index returni,t-1 + β6*∆Years to maturityi,t + β8*1st factor sovereignt + β9*2nd factor sovereignt +
εi,t. Years to maturity is the remaining life of a bond expressed in years, debt to reserves is the ratio of total debt outstanding (bank loans, Brady and Eurobond issues) denominated in U.S. dollars divided
by the total amount of international reserves also denominated in U.S. dollars. Political risk is the value of The Economist Intelligence Unit's country index. Local stock market volatility is the standard
volatility computed each month from daily stock market returns in U.S. dollars. The U.S. Treasury yield level is the yield of the 10 year U.S. Treasury note. The U.S. Treasury slope is computed as the
difference between the yield of the 10 year and the 2 year U.S. Treasury notes. The S&P stock return is the log return of Datastream's S&PCOMP total return index. Stock return volatility is the standard
volatility of each firm's stock return computed each month from daily log returns in U.S. dollars. The S&P index return is the log return of Datastream's S&P 500 total return index. Absolute value of t
statistics are in parentheses; *, **, *** denote significance at the 10%; 5%; and 1% level respectively.
Table 9. Sovereign and domestic regressions including the common factors.
114
R-squared
No exog. All
Equation Obs vars. vars.
1st factor domestic 59 0.3684 0.4496
1st factor sovereign 59 0.0586 0.3769
2nd factor domestic 59 0.2029 0.4978
2nd factor sovereign 59 0.1490 0.6732
1st factor domestic Coeff. Std. Error z P>z 2nd factor domestic Coeff. Std. Error z P>z
1st factor domestic 1st factor domestic
Lag 1 -0.060 0.120 -0.50 0.614 Lag 1 -0.064 0.060 -1.06 0.290
Lag 2 0.014 0.115 0.12 0.902 Lag 2 0.076 0.058 1.31 0.189
1st factor sovereign 1st factor sovereign
Lag 1 -0.072 0.098 -0.73 0.467 Lag 1 -0.091 0.050 -1.82 0.068*
Lag 2 0.424 0.108 3.94 0.000*** Lag 2 0.079 0.054 1.45 0.146
2nd factor domestic 2nd factor domestic
Lag 1 -0.226 0.298 -0.76 0.448 Lag 1 0.244 0.151 1.62 0.106
Lag 2 -0.500 0.282 -0.77 0.427 Lag 2 -0.368 0.143 -2.58 0.010***
2nd factor sovereign 2nd factor sovereign
Lag 1 0.188 0.219 0.86 0.389 Lag 1 0.187 0.111 1.69 0.092*
Lag 2 0.241 0.222 1.09 0.278 Lag 2 0.123 0.112 1.1 0.273
∆flowstocks -0.032 0.017 -1.880 0.060* ∆flowstocks 0.017 0.008 1.980 0.048**
∆flowbonds -0.135 0.056 -2.420 0.015** ∆flowbonds 0.043 0.028 1.770 0.076*
∆netreserves 6.786 5.752 1.18 0.238 ∆netreserves 13.740 2.909 4.72 0.000***
∆onoff 9.751 9.013 1.08 0.279 ∆onoff -0.083 4.558 -0.02 0.986
Constant 0.309 0.222 1.39 0.164 Constant -0.104 0.112 -0.92 0.356
1st factor sovereign Coeff. Std. Error z P>z 2nd factor sovereign Coeff. Std. Error z P>z
1st factor domestic 1st factor domestic
Lag 1 0.225 0.136 1.65 0.099* Lag 1 -0.024 0.061 -0.39 0.696
Lag 2 -0.179 0.131 -1.36 0.174 Lag 2 0.081 0.058 1.38 0.168
1st factor sovereign 1st factor sovereign
Lag 1 0.128 0.112 1.14 0.256 Lag 1 0.002 0.050 0.04 0.967
Lag 2 -0.119 0.123 -0.97 0.333 Lag 2 0.112 0.055 2.06 0.040**
2nd factor domestic 2nd factor domestic
Lag 1 -0.464 0.340 -1.36 0.172 Lag 1 0.326 0.152 2.15 0.032**
Lag 2 0.469 0.322 1.46 0.145 Lag 2 -0.381 0.143 -2.66 0.008***
2nd factor sovereign 2nd factor sovereign
Lag 1 0.388 0.250 1.55 0.120 Lag 1 0.112 0.111 1.01 0.312
Lag 2 -0.113 0.253 -0.45 0.654 Lag 2 0.287 0.113 2.54 0.011**
∆flowstocks -0.052 0.019 -2.710 0.007* ∆flowstocks 0.054 0.009 6.360 0.000***
∆flowbonds -0.312 0.064 -4.910 0.000*** ∆flowbonds -0.112 0.028 -3.950 0.000***
∆netreserves 18.746 6.564 2.86 0.004*** ∆netreserves 13.553 2.924 4.64 0.000***
∆onoff 18.549 10.286 1.8 0.071* ∆onoff -0.731 4.582 -0.16 0.873
Constant -0.055 0.253 -0.22 0.827 Constant 0.028 0.113 0.25 0.801
This table shows estimates a vector autoregression model of the following form:
k k
FacSovt = a1 + ∑ β1 j FacSovt − j + ∑ γ 1 j FacDomt − j + δ 1 X t +ε1
j =1 j =1
k k
FacDomt = a2 + ∑ β 2 j FacSovt − j +∑γ 2 j FacDomt − j + δ 2 X t +ε 2
j =1 j =1
The first and second domestic factors are the factors extracted from the principal component analysis of the residuals of equation (2)
applied to the domestic bins. The first and second sovereign factors are extracted from the principal component analysis of the
residuals of equation (1) applied to the sovereign bins. Net borrowed reserves is computed as total borrowing minus extended credit
minus excess reserves, divided by total reserves. Onoff is the difference between the on-the-run thirty year U.S. Treasury bond and
the most recent off-the-run bond. Flowsstocks is from the IFC’s statistics and is the amount of money flowing into equity mutual
funds. Flowbonds is from the same source and represents the flows into bond funds; *, **, *** denote significance at the 10%; 5%;
and 1% level respectively.
Table 10. Vector autoregression model with exogenous variables.
115
Argentina Brazil Chile
Local Local Local
index ADRs index ADRs index ADRs
Unconditional
correlation with the 0.42392 0.17064 0.37893 0.17120 0.15943 0.16059
S&P 500
Unconditional
correlation with the 0.03345 -0.00292 0.40539 0.34982 0.05350 0.03456 1.00000
S&P 500
This table provides with basic statistics for the data. Log returns in dollars were calculated using daily data
from Datastream. In each case, the local index corresponds to the country index return available in
Datastream. ADRs is an equally weighted index of live ADRs of each country in the U.S. Argentina, Brazil
and Colombia have less observations because of data conflicts. Specifically, Argentina and Brazil, have
problems when backfilling series because of changes in their legal currencies and monetary regimes.
116
Panel A: Extreme correlations for pairs formed by S&P and local stock market returns.
Panel B: Extreme correlations for pairs formed by S&P and en equally weighted basket of ADRs.
Panel C: Extreme correlations for Mexico before and after the 1995 Mexican crisis.
ADRs before 0.1144 0.2946 0.2881 0.3737 0.4337 0.3732 0.2715 0.1571 0.1437 0.1703
ADRS after 0.3390 0.2868 0.4070 0.5022 0.5973 0.4909 0.3949 0.2988 0.2711 0.2192
This table shows how correlations change as we move further into the tails. NA stands for not available, since in those
cases the parameters of the dependence function could not be estimated. All data was obtained form Datastream. All
figures are in dollars. Cutoff point for panel C is 12/29/1994. The equally weighted basket of ADRs was calculated
considering only the live issues.
117
Date of Maximum Minimum Number of
Country
initial rating rating rating changes
Argentina 8/25/1993 BB SD 9
Brazil 11/30/1994 BB- B 6
Bulgaria 11/23/1998 BB B 4
Chile 12/7/1992 A- BBB 3
China 12/7/1992 BBB+ BBB 3
Colombia 6/21/1993 BBB- BB 3
Czech 7/28/1993 A- BBB 4
Egypt 1/15/1997 BBB- BB+ 2
Greece 12/7/1992 A BBB- 4
Hungary 4/20/1992 A- BB+ 5
Indonesia 12/7/1992 BBB SD 16
Jamaica 11/9/1999 B+ B 2
Kazakhstan 11/5/1996 BB BB- 4
Korea 10/1/1988 AA- B+ 11
Lebanon 2/26/1997 BB- B- 4
Malaysia 9/13/1990 A+ BBB- 8
Mexico 7/29/1992 BBB- BB 4
Pakistan 12/21/1994 B+ SD 8
Panama 1/22/1997 BB+ BB 2
Peru 12/18/1997 BB BB- 2
Philippines 6/30/1993 BB+ BB- 3
Poland 6/1/1995 BBB+ BB 4
Portugal 12/7/1992 A+ AA 3
Qatar 2/1/1996 A- BBB 3
Russia 10/7/1996 BB SD 11
Slovakia 2/15/1994 BBB BB- 6
South Africa 10/3/1994 BBB- BB 3
Thailand 6/14/1989 A BBB- 5
Turkey 4/28/1996 B+ B- 5
Ukraine 12/21/2001 B B 1
Uruguay 2/14/1994 BBB- CC 8
Venezuela 7/24/1991 BB CCC+ 8
This table shows a breakdown of sovereign rating changes issued by Standard and Poor’s.
S&P uses 24 different categories, going from D (lowest) to AAA (highest), with a “+” or “-“
to denote issuers above or below the mean in each category. Ratings above BBB- (inclusive)
are considered as investment grade. SD stands for 'Selective Default'. Date of initial rating is
the date when the country was first rated by Standard and Poor's. Max and min ratings are the
highest and lowest qualifications issued to that country from the date of initial rating to the
end of 2003.
Table 13. Sovereign rating changes by Standard & Poor's.
118
Date of Maximum Minimum Number of
Country
initial rating rating rating changes
119
Panel A. Sovereign rating downgrades Panel B. Sovereign rating upgrades
Cumulative
Abnormal Abnormal Cumulative
Event day abnormal t-stat Event day t-stat
return return abnormal return
return
-5 -0.0010 -0.0010 -0.2721 -5 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0342
-4 -0.0031 -0.0040 -0.8707 -4 0.0000 -0.0001 0.0007
-3 -0.0095 -0.0136 -2.6985 -3 0.0030 0.0029 1.0155
-2 -0.0112 -0.0248 -3.1701 -2 -0.0034 -0.0005 -1.1558
-1 -0.0102 -0.0350 -2.8933 -1 -0.0026 -0.0031 -0.8640
0 -0.0072 -0.0422 -2.0330 0 0.0023 -0.0008 0.7572
1 -0.0007 -0.0429 -0.1850 1 -0.0014 -0.0023 -0.4817
2 0.0067 -0.0362 1.8822 2 0.0027 0.0005 0.9225
3 0.0048 -0.0314 1.3562 3 0.0007 0.0012 0.2435
120
Table 15. Stock index results using Standard and Poor's ratings.
Panel A. Sovereign rating downgrades Panel B. Sovereign rating upgrades
Cumulative
Abnormal Abnormal Cumulative
Event day abnormal t-stat Event day t-stat
return return abnormal return
return
-5 0.0038 0.0038 1.0324 -5 -0.0056 -0.0056 -1.2315
-4 -0.0143 -0.0104 -3.8333 -4 0.0024 -0.0032 0.5359
-3 0.0002 -0.0102 0.0521 -3 0.0057 0.0026 1.2607
-2 -0.0030 -0.0132 -0.8008 -2 0.0010 0.0036 0.2302
-1 -0.0082 -0.0214 -2.1876 -1 -0.0010 0.0026 -0.2304
0 -0.0002 -0.0216 -0.0652 0 0.0035 0.0061 0.7661
1 0.0016 -0.0200 0.4326 1 -0.0038 0.0023 -0.8270
2 0.0052 -0.0149 1.3825 2 -0.0036 -0.0013 -0.7957
121
122
No. of pairs
S&P Moody's First rating
of events
4/2/1997
1 S&P
10/2/1997
3/26/2001
2 S&P
3/28/2001
5/8/2001
3 S&P
6/4/2001
7/12/2001
4 S&P
7/13/2001
10/9/2001
5 S&P
10/12/2001
11/6/2001
6 S&P
12/20/2001
11/30/1994
7 S&P
11/30/1994
9/3/1998
8 Moody's
1/14/1999
10/16/2000
9 Moody's
1/3/2001
7/2/2002
10 S&P
8/12/2002
11/7/2001
11 S&P
12/19/2001
123
Panel A. Downgrades
S&P's downgrades Moody's downgrades
Cumulative
Cumulative Event Abnormal
Event day Abnormal return t-stat abnormal t-stat
abnormal return day return
return
-5 -0.0099 -0.0099 -1.6574 -5 0.0079 0.0079 1.3997
-4 -0.0170 -0.0269 -2.8341 -4 -0.0189 -0.0110 -3.3419
-3 -0.0115 -0.0384 -1.9180 -3 0.0144 0.0034 2.5381
-2 -0.0159 -0.0543 -2.6508 -2 -0.0002 0.0032 -0.0346
-1 -0.0113 -0.0655 -1.8808 -1 0.0043 0.0075 0.7592
0 -0.0058 -0.0713 -0.9647 0 -0.0037 0.0037 -0.6588
1 0.0059 -0.0654 0.9902 1 -0.0054 -0.0017 -0.9618
2 0.0134 -0.0520 2.2295 2 -0.0010 -0.0027 -0.1792
3 0.0039 -0.0482 0.6472 3 0.0042 0.0015 0.7488
4 -0.0179 -0.0660 -2.9800 4 0.0102 0.0117 1.8042
5 0.0060 -0.0600 1.0030 5 -0.0101 0.0016 -1.7839
Total number of events: 21 Total number of events: 19
Cumulative abnormal returns Cumulative abnormal returns
(-5, +5) (-1, +1) (-5, +5) (-1, +1)
CAR -0.0600 -0.0111 CAR 0.0016 -0.0049
t-stat -3.0199 -1.6711 t-stat 0.0874 -0.4973
Panel B. Upgrades
S&P's upgrades Moody's upgrades
Cumulative
Cumulative Event Abnormal
Event day Abnormal return t-stat abnormal t-stat
abnormal return day return
return
-5 -0.0038 -0.0038 -0.5489 -5 -0.0013 -0.0013 -0.2074
-4 -0.0037 -0.0075 -0.5444 -4 0.0071 0.0058 1.1435
-3 0.0038 -0.0037 0.5484 -3 0.0004 0.0062 0.0575
-2 -0.0117 -0.0154 -1.7052 -2 0.0029 0.0091 0.4663
-1 -0.0086 -0.0240 -1.2560 -1 0.0015 0.0106 0.2418
0 0.0043 -0.0197 0.6301 0 -0.0001 0.0105 -0.0148
1 0.0062 -0.0135 0.9032 1 0.0003 0.0108 0.0457
2 0.0071 -0.0064 1.0338 2 -0.0055 0.0052 -0.8889
3 0.0043 -0.0021 0.6272 3 0.0009 0.0062 0.1516
4 -0.0069 -0.0090 -1.0068 4 0.0003 0.0065 0.0477
5 0.0003 -0.0087 0.0447 5 -0.0001 0.0064 -0.0109
Total number of events: 17 Total number of events: 21
Cumulative abnormal returns Cumulative abnormal returns
(-5, +5) (-1, +1) (-5, +5) (-1, +1)
CAR -0.0087 0.0019 CAR 0.0064 0.0017
t-stat -0.3841 0.1601 t-stat 0.3112 0.1574
This table uses the events we identified as pairs of rating changes for all countries in our sample. We define a pair of
events as any two rating changes by both agencies that took place within a six month period. The earliest announcement
within each pair is what we consider the first rating. Results are from an event study analysis using stock market indices.
Returns were computed using the market model with datastream's world market (TOTMKWD) as the market return and a
(t-244, t-6) estimation window. The t-statistic is computed as the ratio of the mean abnormal return to the estimated
standard deviation from the time series of mean abnormal returns. All returns are in U.S. dollars.
Table19. Stock market reaction to the first rating by either agency.
124
Panel A: Sovereign credit downgrades Panel B: Sovereign credit upgrades
No international No international
International debt International debt
debt debt
CAR (-5, +5) -0.1223 -0.0718 CAR (-5, +5) -0.0122 -0.0013
z-stat (4.4765) (3.8425) z-stat (0.5378) (0.1526)
CAR (-1, +1) -0.0798 -0.0382 CAR (-1, +1) 0.0028 -0.0011
z-stat (5.5943) (3.9128) z-stat (0.2383) (0.2414)
CAR (-5, +5) -0.1058 -0.0814 CAR (-5, +5) -0.0181 -0.0023
z-stat (4.0382) (4.1356) z-stat (0.7640) (0.2213)
CAR (-1, +1) -0.0793 -0.0456 CAR (-1, +1) 0.0034 -0.0003
z-stat (5.7954) (4.4323) z-stat (0.2711) (0.0599)
Table 20. Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) for Stocks with International Financing.
125
Panel A: 3-day CAR (-1, +1) regressions for all stocks, sovereign downgrades, dollar returns
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)
Constant YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
Panel B: 11 day CAR (-5, +5) regressions for all stocks, sovereign downgrades, dollar returns
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)
Constant YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
The dependent variable is the cumulative abnormal return (CAR) computed using market model adjusted returns á la Brown and Warner (1985). All returns are in U.S. dollars. All
figures used on the right-hand side of the regressions are converted to U.S. dollars using then prevailing exchange rates collected from Datastream. All items except GDP per capita and
stock market cap / GDP are from Worldscope. GDP per capita and stock market cap / GDP are from the World Bank's Economic Indicators database. Size is Total assets from
Worldscope. The following are the Worldscope codes for our variables: Intangible assets (02649), Total assets (02999), Tota debt (03255), Total revenues (07240), Cash plus short term
investments (02001). ADR dummy is a dummy variable that takes a value of one when the firm has an ADR issue level 1, 2 or 3. International debt dummy is a dummy variable that
takes a value of one when the firm has at least a foreign bond or an eurobond issue outstanding. We control for country fixed effects using country dummies (not reported). Absolute
value of t-statistics in parentheses. We correct for heteroskedasticity using White's (1980) covariance estimator. * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%.
Table 21. Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) for all stocks following a sovereign rating downgrade
128
Panel A: 3-day CAR (-1, +1) regressions for all stocks, sovereign upgrades, dollar returns
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)
Constant YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
Log (GDP per capita) 0.0428 0.0445 0.0461 -0.0462 -0.0460 0.0473 -0.0461
(2.5468)** (2.4579)** (2.5379)** (1.8766)* (1.8731)* (2.2399)** (1.8742)*
Stock market cap / GDP -0.0004 -0.0004 -0.0004 0.0003 0.0004 -0.0005 0.0003
(7.9173)*** (7.7554)*** (7.7179)*** (2.1044)** (2.1960)** (8.1374)*** (2.1494)**
Size -0.0008 -0.0011 -0.0010 0.0027 0.0019 -0.0011 0.0021
(0.9591) (1.2226) (1.0835) (1.1843) (0.8274) (0.4643) (0.9100)
Intangibles / Total assets -0.0087 -0.0073 -0.0075 -0.0074
(0.4910) (0.4098) (0.4123) (0.4175)
Revenues / Total assets -0.0038 -0.0039 -0.0003 -0.0039
(1.8439)* (1.8938)* (0.1441) (1.8839)*
Inventories / Total assets 0.0178 0.0185 -0.0006 0.0182
(1.2028) (1.2530) (0.0450) (1.2321)
continued...
Debt / Total assets -0.0056 -0.0057 -0.0087 -0.0058
(0.6757) (0.6829) (1.1201) (0.6977)
Cash / Assets -0.0023 -0.0012 -0.0010
(0.1792) (0.0948) (0.0789)
Observations 2,804 2,804 2,280 2,280 2,804 2,280 2,280 1,459 1,459 1,736 1,459
R-squared 8.15% 8.23% 10.01% 10.05% 10.24% 12.44% 12.49% 14.72% 14.89% 15.33% 14.94%
Panel B: 11 day CAR (-5, +5) regressions for all stocks, sovereign upgrades, dollar returns
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)
Constant YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
The dependent variable is the cumulative abnormal return (CAR) computed using market model adjusted returns á la Brown and Warner (1985). All returns are in U.S. dollars. All figures used on
the right-hand side of the regressions are converted to U.S. dollars using then prevailing exchange rates collected from Datastream. All items except GDP per capita and stock market cap / GDP
are from Worldscope. GDP per capita and stock market cap / GDP are from the World Bank's Economic Indicators database. Size is Total assets from Worldscope. The following are the
Worldscope codes for our variables: Intangible assets (02649), Total assets (02999), Tota debt (03255), Total revenues (07240), Cash plus short term investments (02001). ADR dummy is a
dummy variable that takes a value of one when the firm has an ADR issue level 1, 2 or 3. International debt dummy is a dummy variable that takes a value of one when the firm has at least a
foreign bond or an eurobond issue outstanding. We control for country fixed effects using country dummies (not reported). Absolute value of t-statistics in parentheses. We correct for
heteroskedasticity using White's (1980) covariance estimator. * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%.
Table 22. Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) for all stocks following a sovereign rating upgrade
131
Table 23. Countries included in this
comparison
132
Table 24. Coverage for sovereign bonds on Datastream and Warga databases.
133
APPENDIX C
FIGURES
134
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
6/1/1997 6/1/1997
9/1/1997 9/1/1997
12/1/1997 12/1/1997
3/1/1998 3/1/1998
6/1/1998 6/1/1998
9/1/1998 9/1/1998
12/1/1998 12/1/1998
3/1/1999 3/1/1999
6/1/1999 6/1/1999
9/1/1999 9/1/1999
Sovereign
135
Sovereign
12/1/1999 12/1/1999
3/1/2000 3/1/2000
6/1/2000 6/1/2000
Domestic
Domestic
9/1/2000 9/1/2000
Figure 1. First common component
3/1/2001 3/1/2001
6/1/2001 6/1/2001
9/1/2001 9/1/2001
12/1/2001 12/1/2001
3/1/2002 3/1/2002
6/1/2002 6/1/2002
Figure 3. Q-Q Plots for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the Mexican
equity index
8
6
Exponential Quantiles
4
2
4
2
Ordered Data
136
Figure 4. Q-Q Plots for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the Mexican
ADR equally weighted portfolio
8
6
Exponential Quantiles
4
2
Ordered Data
8
6
Exponential Quantiles
4
2
137
Figure 5. Q-Q Plots for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the S&P 500
equity index
8
6
Exponential Quantiles
4
2
Ordered Data
8
6
Exponential Quantiles
4
2
Ordered Data
138
Figure 6. Excess mean graphs for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the
Mexican equity index
0.25
0.20
Mean Excess
0.15
0.10
0.05
Threshold
0.15
Mean Excess
0.10
0.05
Threshold
139
Figure 7. Excess mean graphs for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the
Mexican ADR equally weighted portfolio.
0.25
0.20
Mean Excess
0.15
0.10
0.05
Threshold
0.15
Mean Excess
0.10
0.05
Threshold
140
Figure 8. Excess mean graphs for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the
S&P 500 equity index
0.14
0.12
0.10
Mean Excess
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.10
0.05
Threshold
141
Figure 9. Correlation between S&P and the Mexican stock market index (solid line) and correlation between S&P
and Mexican ADRs (dashed line). The number of exceedances used to calculate each correlation is shown in the
horizontal axis.
Figure 10. Correlation between S&P and the Chilean stock market index (solid line) and correlation between S&P
and Chilean ADRs (dashed line). The number of exceedances used to calculate each correlation is shown in the
horizontal axis.
142
Figure 11. Correlation between S&P and the Venezuelan stock market index (solid line) and correlation between
S&P and Venezuelan ADRs (dashed line). The number of exceedances used to calculate each correlation is shown
in the horizontal axis.
Figure 12. Correlation between S&P and the Colombian stock market index (solid line) and correlation between
S&P and Colombian ADRs (dashed line). The number of exceedances used to calculate each correlation is shown
in the horizontal axis.
143
Figure 13. Correlation between S&P and the Brazilian stock market index (solid line) and correlation between
S&P and Brazilian ADRs (dashed line). The number of exceedances used to calculate each correlation is shown in
the horizontal axis.
Figure 14. Correlation between S&P and the Argentinean stock market index (solid line) and correlation between
S&P and Argentinean ADRs (dashed line). The number of exceedances used to calculate each correlation is
shown in the horizontal axis.
144
Figure 15. Correlation between S&P and the Mexican stock market index (solid line) and correlation between
S&P and Mexican ADRs (dashed line) before the 1995 Mexican crisis. The number of exceedances used to
calculate each correlation is shown in the horizontal axis.
Figure 16. Correlation between S&P and the Mexican stock market index (solid line) and correlation between
S&P and Mexican ADRs (dashed line) after the 1995 Mexican crisis. The number of exceedances used to
calculate each correlation is shown in the horizontal axis.
145
Figure 17. Downgrades (S&P)
0.01
0
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
-0.04
-0.05
0.003
0.002
0.001
0
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-0.001
-0.002
-0.003
-0.004
Abnormal return Cumulative abnormal return
146
Figure 19. Downgrades (Moody's)
0.01
0.005
0
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-0.005
-0.01
-0.015
-0.02
-0.025
Abnormal return Cumulative abnormal return
147