BC Liberal Leadership –

General Public Survey

November 26, 2010

 Methodology
 Telephone IVR interviews conducted among 800 adult residents of BC.
 This data has been weighted to be representative of region, age and gender. The
margin of error for a sample of this size is +/- 3.46% 19/20.
 The data was collected by random dialling to landlines in BC between Nov. 19 and
22, 2010, using Interactive Voice Recognition technology supplied by Probit Inc.

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 Key Findings

 Christy Clark is by far the preference of adults surveyed in BC to be BC Liberal

Party leader and Premier.
 Christy Clark is stronger with “possible” BC Liberal voters than other
candidates. She broadens the party’s base. She can draw from age groups
where the party is not as strong and from women voters.
 In an election she would add more to the BC Liberal ticket than other
candidates, giving the Liberals a clear lead over the BC NDP.
 The number of “likely” and “possible” BC Liberal voters who said they would
vote for the BC Liberals if she was leader represent high proportions in our
experience when examining “soft” or “swing” voters. She gives the BC Liberals
a decisive lead over the BC NDP among this group.
 Leadership

 Christy Clark is the clear favourite, with a significant share of BC adults saying
she is their preferred candidate of the six – with four in ten selecting her as
their first choice to be BC Liberal leader.
 Preference for her is also pronounced among (swing voters those who “possibly” will
vote Liberal) – 41% to 16% for the next leading candidate, Blair Lekstrom.
 She is also the preferred candidate among those who are certain to vote BC Liberal –
the party’s base.
 Preference for Christy Clark is somewhat higher among women than men, and
strongest in the 35-49 age group, two areas where BC Liberal support is relatively soft.
 Kevin Falcon is the second choice among “certain” and “likely” Liberal voters, with
about one in five selecting him but less of a draw among “possible” Liberal voters with
one in ten selecting him.
 Party Vote Pools – Status Quo
“In a provincial election two years from now how likely are you to vote for the _____________?”

BC Liberal Party 21 11 20 47

BC NDP 18 14 25 42

0 20 40 60 80 100

Certain to Likely to Possibly vote Certain not to

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 Leadership - General Population

“Among the following candidates to be leader of the BC Liberal Party and Premier, who would you
prefer?” Among all adults surveyed – n=800

Christy Clark 40

Kevin Falcon 15

Mike De Jong 12

Blair Lekstrom 12

George Abbott 10

Rich Coleman 10

0 10 20 30 40 50

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 Leadership – Among Those Certain to Vote
Liberal
“Among the following candidates to be leader of the BC Liberal Party and Premier, who would you
prefer?” Among Certain Liberal voters n=172 – Margin of error +/- 7.47% 19/20

Christy Clark 35

Kevin Falcon 21

Rich Coleman 13

George Abbott 12

Mike De Jong 10

Blair Lekstrom 9

0 10 20 30 40 50

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 Leadership

“Among the following candidates to be leader of the BC Liberal Party and Premier, who would you
prefer?” Christy Clark

Total 40
Women 42
Men 37
Certain to vote BC Liberal 35
Likely to vote BC Liberal 38
Possibly will vote BC Liberal 41
Certain not to vote BC Liberal 43
Lower Mainland 42
Vancouver 43
Victoria 36
Rest of Province 37
18-34 32
35-49 47
50-64 39
65+ 40
0 10 20 30 40 50

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 Election and Vote Intention By Leader

 With Christy Clark as leader, the BC Liberals have an 11 point lead over
the NDP, and, other than Blair Lekstrom, is the only candidate who
leads the NDP by more than the margin-of-error.
 Among those who will “possibly” vote BC Liberal – swing voters - the
difference she makes in comparison to other candidates is greater still
– adding 12 points over the next candidate tested who is still in the
race. Among this group she will draw from the NDP and Greens as well
as undecided.
 Vote Intention by Leader

“In a provincial election where ________ is the leader of the BC Liberal Party, Carole James is the
leader of the NDP, and Jane Sterk is leader of the Green Party which party would you vote for?”

Christy Clark 38 27 17 6 12

Blair Lekstrom 34 28 18 6 14

Mike De Jong 33 30 18 6 12

Kevin Falcon 32 32 18 7 12

Rich Coleman 32 31 17 7 13

George Abbott 30 31 18 6 15

0 20 40 60 80 100
BC Liberal BC NDP BC Green Other Uncertain

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 Vote Intention by Leader – Among Possible
Liberal Voters
“In a provincial election where ________ is the leader of the BC Liberal Party, Carole James is the
leader of the NDP, and Jane Sterk is leader of the Green Party which party would you vote for?”
(n=159)

Christy Clark 39 18 15 3 26

Blair Lekstrom 33 16 21 3 28

Rich Coleman 28 22 19 7 24

George Abbott 25 21 21 3 29

Kevin Falcon 24 25 20 5 25

Mike De Jong 23 23 22 4 27

0 20 40 60 80 100
BC Liberal BC NDP BC Green Other Uncertain
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