The Employment Situation

November 3, 2010

1555 NorthPark Drive #102

Weston, Florida 33326

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 Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%) Unemployment Unemployment Rate (%)

12 11%

10% 9.8%
10
9%
8
8%
6
7%
4
6%

2 5%

0 4%

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Change in Payrolls Non-Farm MoM (000's) Manufacturing MoM (000's) Average Hourly Work Week Avg. Weekly Hours
Private MoM (000's)
500 35
400 34.8
300

Non-Farm Payrolls (000's)

34.6
200
100 34.4
0 34.2
-100
34
-200
-300 33.8
-400 33.6
-500 33.4
-600
33.2
-700
-800 33

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Unit Labor Costs QoQ%

Average Hourly Earnings Avg. Hourly Earnings (YoY%) Avg. Hourly Earnings (MoM%) Productivity and Costs Non-Farm Productivity QoQ%
0.7% 4.5% 10%
0.6% 4.0% 8%
0.5% 3.5%
6%
4%
0.4% 3.0%
2%
YoY %
MoM %

0.3% 2.5%
0%
0.2% 2.0% -2%
0.1% 1.5% -4%
0.0% 1.0% -6%
-8%
-0.1% 0.5%
-10%
-0.2% 0.0% Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

12/3/2010 Employment Charts

 Initial Claims (Thousands)
Unemployment Claims Initial Claims (Thousands) Unemployment Claims
Continuing Claims (Thousands)
520 7000 700
6500 650
500

Continuing Claims
6000 600

Initial Claims
5500 550
480
5000 500
460 4500 450
4000 400
440
3500 350
3000 300
420
2500 250
400 2000 200

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

ADP's Change in Private Payrolls ADP Payrolls Change in Payrolls (MoM) BLS - Non-Farm Payrolls ADP Payrolls

400
400
200
200
0
0

Thousands
-200
-200

-400 -400

-600 -600

-800 -800

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Employment / Population Ratio Employment / Population Ratio (%) Non-Farm Payroll Diffusion Non-Farm Diffusion

80
66
70
64
60

62 50

40
60
30
58
20

56 10

0
54
1999
1999

2000
2000

2001
2002

2003
2003

2004
2004

2005
2005

2006
2007

2008
2008

2009
2009

2010
1998

2000

2001

2002

2003

2005

2006

2007

2008

2010
1999

2000

2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2003

2003

2004

2005
2005
2006
2006

2007

2008

2009
2009
2010
2010
1998

1999

2000

2003

2004

2005

2007

2008

2008

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Job Hires YoY%

12/3/2010 Employment Charts
 Job Hires YoY%
JOLTS Job Reports Job Separations YoY% Employment Prospects Challenger Job Cuts YoY%
Job Openings YoY%
4.5 700
600
4
500
3.5 400
300
3
200
2.5 100
0
2
-100
1.5 -200
2002

2003
2003
2003
2004

2004
2005
2005
2005

2006

2007
2007

2008

2008
2009

2009

2010
2010
2002

2004

2006

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Extended Benefits
Employment Cost Index ECI YoY% Unemployment Claims Emergency Benefits
Continuing Claims
4.5 12

Millions
4
10
3.5
3 8
2.5
6
2
1.5 4
1
2
0.5
0 0
2002

2003
2003
2004

2004
2005

2005
2006
2006

2007
2007

2008
2008

2009
2009
2010
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007
2008

2009

2010

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Labor Force Participation Rate Labor Force Participation Labor Force Participation Rate Labor Force Participation

68% 68.0%

66% 67.5%
67.0%
64%
66.5%
62% 66.0%
60% 65.5%

58% 65.0%
64.5%
56%
64.0%
54% 63.5%
52% 63.0%
1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

BLS Private MoM (000's)

12/3/2010 Employment Charts
 BLS Private MoM (000's)
Comparison of Private Payrolls ADP Payrolls MoM (000's) Underemployment U-6 Underemployment Rate (%)
400
300 20%
200 18%
100 17.0%
16%
0
-100 14%
-200 12%
-300
10%
-400
-500 8%

-600 6%
-700
4%
-800

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

Source: Bloomberg/Horowitz & Company

12/3/2010 Employment Charts

 1555 NorthPark Drive #102
Weston, Florida 33325
p 954-349-0800 f 954-349-1414

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