Professional Documents
Culture Documents
CONTRIBUTORS OF THE STUDY1
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Arnaud van Tichelen recently graduated with distinction from ICADE’s international business
administration program (E‐4). During ICADE, Arnaud worked 6 months at UBS within the
M&A team and 6 months at Comgest (asset management) as an equity analyst. He currently
works in the Investment Banking Division (Consumer products and retail) of UBS in London.
He can be contacted at a.vantichelen@gmail.com
1
Three other investment funds shared their views but requested to remain anonymous.
The author is grateful to Professor Rocío Sáenz‐Díez, to Trevor Giles from Caracalla Capital and to Nick Hatch
from Scalar Partners for their support in this work but also to the investment professionals who contributed to
this study for their precious time and valuable insight.
W e a r e pro ud to h av e as s is t ed w i th th is s tud y . W e b e li e ve i t pro v i des an
e xc elle n t pr imer to the p riva te e qu i ty s eco nda r y mark et along with impor ta n t
m ar k e t h is to r y a nd v alu a ti on t ec hn iq ues . W e h op e in ves tors w il l le arn an d pr ofi t
from th is work.
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-3-
ABSTRACT
During the current liquidity crisis, the Private Equity industry has been reshaped and
experienced a significant increase in the level of interest and activity in the secondary
market. However, despite its growth, the market is still inherently inefficient and pricing
tends to vary widely among bidders. Investors need to be aware of the challenges and
dynamics of this fast evolving market and to carefully analyze each potential sourced
opportunity.
This research paper attempts to analyze the characteristics of the Private Equity
secondary market. Furthermore it analyses the valuation in the market and provides an
actual valuation of a real secondary investment opportunity supported by the development
of a secondary valuation model. This analysis is based on more than 25 interviews conducted
with expert participants in secondaries.
Currently, transaction volume for secondaries is near an all-time high which
generates further liquidity and benefits the asset class as a whole. Near-term and long-term
factors are driving a fast growing market which many expect will grow about 16% annually
(CAGR) in the next five years. However opportunities on the market are mirrored by
significant challenges. Although the top-down method is helpful in determining the value of
a potential secondary, empirical data clearly shows that a bottom-up valuation is crucially
important in determining the value of an asset in the secondary market.
CONTENTS
CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................... IV
I. INTRODUCTION....................................................................................... 15
GLOSSARY ................................................................................................................................118
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................123
APPENDIX ................................................................................................................................131
-9-
TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Structure of the study ............................................................................................... 16
Figure 2: Different Private Equity styles................................................................................... 18
Figure 3: Raised capital in the primary market ($ billions) ...................................................... 20
Figure 4: Transaction volume in the secondary market ($ billions)......................................... 21
Figure 5: Geographical distribution of the transactions .......................................................... 22
Figure 6: Volume raised by secondary Private Equity funds ($ billions) .................................. 23
Figure 7: Reasons that motivate the sellers in the market (2007/2008/2009) ....................... 25
Figure 8: Reasons for resorting to the secondary market in the next two years (2010-2011) 26
Figure 9: Secondary funds - Top, median and bottom IRR quartiles (by vintage year) ........... 27
Figure 10: The “J-Curve”........................................................................................................... 28
Figure 11: Importance of the secondary market to investors’ Private Equity strategies ........ 29
Figure 12: Breakdown by seller type in the secondary market (2008 vs. 2009)...................... 33
Figure 13: Buyer types (by transaction volume - H1 09).......................................................... 36
Figure 14: Non-traditional buyer types (H1 09) ....................................................................... 38
Figure 15: History of the Private Equity secondary market ..................................................... 40
Figure 16: The beginning of the market (1982-2002) .............................................................. 42
Figure 17: Changes to LPs’ exposure to secondary funds over the years 2008-2009 ............. 44
Figure 18: Proportion of investors who ruled out transactions in 2008 because of pricing
concerns ........................................................................................................................... 45
Figure 19: Two types of secondary transactions: sale of limited partnership interest and
direct sale ......................................................................................................................... 46
Figure 20: Transaction volume breakdown – (Limited partnership interest and Direct sale)
(2007 to 2009) .................................................................................................................. 47
Figure 21: Different sale structures in the secondary market ................................................. 48
Figure 22: Comparison of the characteristics of the different sale structures ........................ 49
Figure 23: Traditional sale structure: straight sale of a limited partnership interest .............. 50
Figure 24: Structure of a stapled secondary sale of a portfolio of limited partnership interests
.......................................................................................................................................... 51
Figure 25: Structured joint-venture sale of a portfolio of limited partnership interests ........ 52
- 10 -
Figure 26: Total return swaps for a portfolio of limited partnership interests ....................... 53
Figure 27: Securitisation by means of CFOs ............................................................................. 54
Figure 28: Securitisation of the unfunded ............................................................................... 54
Figure 29: Comparison of the characteristics of the different sale processes ........................ 56
Figure 30: Secondary base (in bn$) .......................................................................................... 64
Figure 31: Estimates of the secondary market transaction volume according to the historical
relationship ($ billions) ..................................................................................................... 65
Figure 32: LPs’ anticipated level of Private Equity commitments at the end of 2010............. 67
Figure 33: Plans to address the over allocation issue .............................................................. 67
Figure 34: Distributions as a % of NAV ..................................................................................... 70
Figure 35: Anticipated changes in capital calls in the next 12 months .................................... 71
Figure 36: Timing of the tightening of the bid/offer spread .................................................... 73
Figure 37: Anticipated changes to LP’s exposure to secondary funds over 2010-2011 .......... 74
Figure 38: Secondary bids over time (as a % of last fund’s NAV) ............................................ 77
Figure 39: Value of the best bid in comparison with the total exposure to the asset (NAV +
unfunded) ......................................................................................................................... 78
Figure 40: Historical valuation of the best bids received for each fund type (% of the NAV) . 79
Figure 41: Valuation according to the vintage year of the fund (H1 2009) in % of its NAV .... 81
Figure 42: Historical trading of the listed Private Equity funds – Premium / (discount) with its
NAV ................................................................................................................................... 82
Figure 43: Comparison between trading of listed Private Equity funds and bids received in
the secondary market ...................................................................................................... 83
Figure 44: Two valuation methods of the secondary assets.................................................... 85
Figure 45: Structure of the bottom-up valuation method ....................................................... 87
Figure 46: Dry powder in the secondary market in 2010 ($ billions)..................................... 110
Figure 47: Estimate of the dry powder in the secondary market in 2011 ($ billions) ........... 111
- 11 -
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Financial advisers in the secondary market ............................................................... 31
Table 2: Legal advisers on the secondary market .................................................................... 32
Table 3: The ten largest dedicated fund managers at the end of 2009................................... 37
Table 4: Distribution of the transaction probabilities during the life of a fund....................... 63
Table 5: Tier 1 capital and 3% cap of five major US banks....................................................... 69
Table 6: Effect of the funding ratio on the valuation (H1 2009) .............................................. 80
Table 7: Projection multiples of the unfunded according to the quality of the management
team ................................................................................................................................. 90
Table 8: Cash flows of the fund and distributions - Waterfall ................................................. 93
Table 9: Top-down valuation of a limited partnership interest ............................................... 95
Table 10: Main characteristics of the fund .............................................................................. 97
Table 11: Financial data and growth hypotheses of a portfolio company .............................. 98
Table 12: Analysis and projection of the operating data of a portfolio company (base case)
........................................................................................................................................ 100
Table 13: Projection of the debt repayment and valuation of the investment ..................... 101
Table 14: Cash flows from the fund’s investments ................................................................ 103
Table 15: Calculation of the costs of the fund ....................................................................... 103
Table 16: Waterfall of the fund .............................................................................................. 104
Table 17: Net cash flows available for LPs ............................................................................. 104
Table 18: Determination of the returns of the secondary investor according to the
acquisition price ............................................................................................................. 105
Table 19: Determination of the price to be paid according to scenarios and returns .......... 106
Table 20: Sensitivity of the returns to the different key variables ........................................ 107
Table 21: Contrast of the valuation according to the different methods.............................. 108
Table 22: Discrepancy in the valuation of the assets (H1 2009) ............................................ 109
- 12 -
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I. INTRODUCTION
During the current liquidity crisis, it may be valuable for a limited partner to dispose
of an interest in a Private Equity fund, but how? The secondary market can provide this
desired liquidity which is critically important to limited partners. Many key issues are taken
into account when disposing of an interest, but as Cicero said: “belli nervus pecunia”, money
is the sinews of war, the value of the asset sold, is the key consideration in a transaction in
the secondary market. But how are these assets valued? Why are there such large disparities
between the different bids received for the same assets?
The secondary market is growing constantly and is now a major participant in the Private
Equity industry. From a very private confidential market to a broad liquidity provider for the
investment community, the market has changed dramatically. In 2009, funds raised for the
purchase of Private Equity fund interests accounted for roughly 20% of all Private Equity
funds closed during the year. Over the last decade, the market has become more and more
complex and become the reflection of new opportunities. However, although the market is
being established it remains inefficient.
Motivations for entering the secondary market are increasingly different and complex. What
volumes are traded in the market? Who are the participants? Transactions are becoming
more complex. What are the different sales structures and their characteristics? Beyond
structuring of transactions, why can there be so much price disparity between the bids on
the same asset? Is there a way to accurately value these assets? How could we measure the
fair value of an interest in a fund?
Secondary market literature is limited and due to this lack of information, many investors
and agents still do not understand all of its characteristics, nuances and complexities. No
study giving a comprehensive and thorough overview of the market and its main issues has
been published prior to this paper. This study attempts to answer a lack of information and
to be a guide through the characteristics and valuation of the Private Equity secondary
market.
processes (II.2) as well as tax and legal considerations in such transactions (II.3) in order to
better analyze and project future trends of the market (II.4).
The second part (section III) focuses on the valuation of the assets on the secondary
market. After analyzing the existing market valuations (III.1), the different valuation methods
are explained based on theoretical knowledge and direct experience of secondary market
participants (III.2). Once the theoretical approach of valuing these assets is understood, a
real world valuation is demonstrated. An interest in a Private Equity fund is valued following
two valuation methods: bottom-up and top-down (through the valuation model developed
in partnership with several market participants) in order to demonstrate the optimal
valuation method of assets in the secondary market (III.3).
The last part (section IV) lists the main conclusions of the study and its investigations.
Main considerations on the market, its future and the valuation of these assets are
highlighted in order to summarize the key contributions of the study.
To support the present study, appendices are attached containing databases of market
participants, marketing documents of the present study, summaries of meetings and calls
with sponsors of this study, analysis of historical data in the market and a projection model
of secondary transaction volume.
Source: adapted from JP Morgan Asset Management; «Secondary Private Equity Discussions»; 2009.
A Private Equity Fund (PEF) is a collective investment scheme through which assets are
administered by an investment firm (the Private Equity firm). The assets are divided into
interests conferring to their holders, the Limited Partners or LPs, a property right thereon3.
The LPs’ commitments are managed by the Private Equity firm acting as the General Partner
or GP which also invest in their own funds, typically providing 1% to 5% of the overall capital.
In making an investment in a PEF, LPs sign a Limited Partnership Agreement or LPA with the
GP. This document, drawn up by the GP and its advisers, governs the relationship between
2
Gómez-Acebo & Pombo abogados y ASCRI; «Capital riesgo (Private Equity) aspectos regulatorios, mercantiles,
financieros, fiscales y laborales»; 2006
3
CNMV, «Reglamento de los fondos de capital riesgo», www.cnmv.is/legislacion/capital_risk/REGLAFON.DOC
(Last accessed: 6 November 2009)
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 19 -
the LPs and GPs. It describes the rights and obligations of the parties and sets forth the
fund’s operating mandate and limitations.
The amount that LPs invest is called committed capital. The LP commits in writing to provide
capital funding within the agreed time limit (in general ten days4) upon notification of the
manager’s capital call. In general, the investor will provide capital over a period of time and
the portion committed by the investor but not yet paid is called the unfunded commitment.
The LPA sets forth details on how the fund is to be managed including the management fee5
which is measured as a percentage of the committed capital or the assets under
management depending whether the fund is in the investment period or liquidation period
(it is generally applied to the committed capital during the investment period and to the
assets under management during the liquidation phase). The management fees are usually
2% but they can differ slightly (between 1% and 3%) according to the manager’s reputation
and fund size.
The LPA also defines the fund’s distribution structure (also called waterfall). The carried
interest is defined in this part. Carried interest represents the fund manager’s share in
capital gains resulting from operations carried out by the fund once the investment of the
LPs has been returned and a minimum return to the investors called the hurdle rate (about
8%) has been provided for. In Private Equity Funds, the carried interest is usually about
20%6.
4
Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld; «Role of the secondaries market and LP trends»; 2009
5
See section III. 2.2.4- ii. The fund management costs
6
See section III, 2.2.4- iii. The waterfall
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 20 -
500
455
450
400 370 375
350
300
250 255 246
250
200
133 140
150 117 120
100 81 70 80
50
50
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
7
Source: Author’s own using data from: Private Equity Analyst (1996-1999); Thomson Reuters, AVCJ, EVCA, Asia
Private Equity, NVCA (2000-2008); Preqin (2009).
As the graph above demonstrates, investments in Private Equity increased annually until the
technology bubble burst in 2000. After a short period of decline in new capital raised (mainly
due to Venture Capital funds) the market rebounded from 2002 to 2007 following a period
of macroeconomic expansion. In 2007, after reaching historic highs, the trend reversed due
to the financial crisis and the volume of new capital raised fell dramatically.
In 2009, investments in Private Equity continued to fall and due to a difficult economic
recovery it is forecast that annual volume in the next two years will remain constant8.
According to Preqin, the first quarter of 2010 shows a constant trend with $50 billion raised,
representing an increase of 5% in comparison with capital raised in the first quarter of 20099.
From 2005 to 2008 the Private Equity asset class raised nearly $1.5 trillion. Driven by
attractive returns and the enthusiasm of investors, the Private Equity industry has grown
significantly in recent years from approximately $950 billion in 2003 to $2.5 trillion in 200810.
7
The data used are from a historical analysis of the information published by different market participants. See
appendix 8.3. The selected data are the most accurate and are from recognised and trustworthy sources
8
Bain & Company, Inc; «Global Private Equity Report 2010»; 2010
9
Preqin; «Q1 2010 Private equity Fundraising Update»; 2010 (via Twitter 1 April 2010)
10
Including the NAV of the portfolio and the unfunded. Preqin; «Private Equity secondary market: Short-Term
Boom, Long-Term Growth»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 21 -
18
16.1
16
CAGR 2002-08
13.4
14
12
41%
10.3
10 9.1
8.4
8 7.5
6.9
6
4 3.1
2.4 2.3 2.1
2 1.5
0.6 0.7
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
11
Source: Author’s own using data from: Dow Jones; «Guide to secondary Market Buyers»; 2009 (Sale price +
Unfunded; transactions of traditional participants: funds of funds and secondary funds); UBS Private Funds
Group; «Adams Street Secondary Networking Event»; 2010 (2009).
The data of this market are estimates given that since it is not an organised market
there is no system capable of capturing the exact volume of transactions in the market.
Furthermore, the data that are published represent large-scale transactions in which
secondary dedicated funds or fund of funds were involved. The smaller more numerous
transactions of LPs’ interests are not usually published and therefore their impact is very
difficult to measure.
For a long period of time, the secondary market was nearly invisible given its low volume.
Since 2003 it has become a major market, as can be inferred from the recent media interest
(press, conferences, etc.).
11
The data used are from a historical analysis of the information published by different participants. See
appendix 8.1. The selected data are the most accurate and are from recognized and trustworthy sources
II. Characteristics
cs of the Private Equity secondary market - 22 -
In 2008, transaction volume in the secondary market was over $16 billion. Despite the
magnitude of this amount, this large volume
volume represents less than 1% of the total size of the
Private Equity industry12. Compared with other asset classes, this is a very low proportion of
secondary transactions. This implies that many investors keep their interests until maturity
with little opportunity to change their strategy and sell their investment during this period.
In 2009, according to the present survey shown in appendix (8.1), secondary participants
(advisers and buyers) estimated the secondary transaction volume at an average of $7.5
billion, which represents a 50% decrease over 2008 volume.
2007 2008
Europe 1% Europe
1% 21%
2% Asia 43% Asia
50%
76%
USA USA
6%
Other Other
Source: Author’s own using data from UBS Private Funds Group; «Private Equity Secondary Market review»;
2009.
The majority of transactions are carried out in the United States and Europe where the main
participants are present and transactions more significant.
One of the secondary market’s growth drivers is the volume raised in the primary market.
Historically, a positive
sitive direct relationship between the primary and secondary markets
seems to have existed.
12
Secondary transactions in 2008 (Dow Jones
Jon Guide)/Assets managed by Private
te Equity in 2008 (Preqin)= $161
$16
billion/ $25 trillion = 0.64%
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 23 -
20
18.5
18
16
14 13.0
12.3
12
10 8.9
7.8 7.2
8 6.4 7.4
6
4.0
4 2.7 2.4
2.0
2 1.1
0.7
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
13
Source: Author’s own based on data from : Dow Jones; «Guide to secondary market buyers»; 2009 (1996-
2008); Preqin; «Private Equity Spotlight January 2010»; 2010 (2009).
In 2009 it was the only segment of Private Equity that grew in comparison with 2008 and
represents 7.5% of the total funds raised14.
According to Campbell Lutyens15 and Probitas Partners16, it is forecast that in 2010
secondary funds will raise some $27 billion if they manage to achieve their fundraising
targets.
13
The data used are from a historical analysis of the information published by different participants. See
appendix 8.2. The selected data are the most accurate and are from recognised and trustworthy sources
14
Secondary funds / total funds raised = 246/18.5= 7.5%
15
See appendix 7.13, which includes a summary of the call to Campbell Lutyens (10 March 2010)
16
Probitas Partners; «Adams Street Secondary Networking Event»; 2010
17
Kelly DePonte, Probitas Partners; «Routes to liquidity»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 24 -
money than they have to invest in this asset class and then finance capital calls with
distributions from mature funds. But during downturns when the distributions are
reduced they are unable to fund capital calls. They need to sell their interests that
entail large unfunded commitments (i.e. most recent funds).
Urgent need for liquidity (distressed sellers).
To comply with the new regulatory accountancy risk management and capital
requirements (Basel II).
Change in the overall strategy: sale of non-core assets.
Corporate transaction: mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, change in the
management team.
Denominator effect18: due to the fall in publicly traded security valuations the
weighting of other assets increases in the portfolio. This imposes a re-balancing of
the different assets classes in order to comply with the allocation threshold of assets
in the portfolio policy.
Change in the investment strategy: geographical area, sector, vintage year,
change in the management team, asset class…
Reorganisation of the portfolio and exit from problematic funds.
To lock-in performance.
To focus on relationship with some GPs: having interests in few funds allows to
follow a limited number of GPs and therefore to reduce the management and
administrative costs.
To avoid distributing remaining assets of a fund to the LPs: a manager prefers to
sell assets in the secondary market to return cash to his LPs rather than distribute the
fund’s remaining assets19.
18
For more details on the denominator effect, see 4.2.1. The denominator effect.
19
Charles Soulignac, CEO Fondinvest Capital; «Secondary Market in private equity - an asset class in
expansion»; 12 March 2002. www.AltAssets.com (last accessed: 3 February 2010)
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market
2007
13% 14%
17%
56%
In the figure above two major reasons why sellers resort to the secondary market stand out:
active portfolio management and the need for liquidity. Since 2009, due to the credit crunch,
the main reason for selling has become the need to find liquidity.
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 26 -
Figure 8: Reasons for resorting to the secondary market in the next two years (2010-2011)
Increase liquidity
Source: Author’s own using data from Coller Capital; «Global Private Equity Barometer Winter 2009-10»; 2009.
According to a survey by Coller Capital carried out in the winter of 2009, the main reasons
why sellers are going to use the secondary market in 2010-2011 will be lack of liquidity and
portfolio management (to rebalance their allocation to Private Equity or refocus resources).
20
Goldman Sachs PEG ; «Private Equity liquidity : a perspective on the secondary market »; May 2008
21
Preqin; «Private Equity Secondary Market: Short-Term Boom, Long-Term Growth»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 27 -
Figure 9: Secondary funds - Top, median and bottom IRR quartiles (by vintage year)
According to a survey by Probitas Partners published in November 2009, more than 50% of
investors believe returns of the best secondary fund managers (those of the top quartile) in
vintage year 2010 will reach an IRR of 20% or more during the life of the fund22.
To optimise the risk-return trade-off of a portfolio:
In some cases the transaction allows investment with preferred conditions in the funds,
providing greater seniority in the capital structure and therefore less risk alongside preferred
returns.
To invest in an identifiable portfolio of assets:
In the primary market, the investor invests in a blind pool and trusts the judgement of the
GP to buy high-performing assets. When buying in the secondary market, the investor knows
the assets in which the fund is invested and can estimate its growth and future value.
To gain access to future funds of a certain GP:
The acquisition of a fund’s interest seeks to develop a relationship with a GP in order to
obtain access to future funds that will be raised.
To diversify the portfolio:
It allows diversifying the portfolio, adding a different vintage year or buying funds from an
outstanding vintage year.
To minimise the impact of the J-curve on the portfolio:
22
Probitas Partners ; «Private Equity Market Review and Institutional Investor Survey»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 28 -
At the beginning of the investment, a PEF requires capital to invest (“investment period”)
and in this phase the fund typically shows negative returns. The fund’s return rate reaches a
turning point from the moment in which the fund distributions appear. The effect of this
impact on portfolio returns is called the “J-curve effect”23.
Upon adding more mature assets to a portfolio the J-curve effect is reduced. Some GPs
therefore resort to the secondary market to buy interests in mature funds in order to reduce
this impact.
According to Capital Dynamics, a Private Equity fund takes 5 years to achieve a NAV of 80%
of the committed capital. Buying an interest in a mature fund allows for acceleration of
initial returns and improves liquidity of the portfolio since secondary funds usually generate
earlier distributions24.
However, the main motives that drive the market are those of the sellers. Indeed, in
quantitative terms, the majority of transactions were led by large financial institutions
(banks, insurance companies) that decided Private Equity is not their core business and sold
their interests in the secondary market in order to reemploy this capital to other activities.
That trend is called “active portfolio management”.
For all these reasons, the secondary market increasingly forms part of investors’ strategy.
23
Private Equity Magasine ; «J Curve: la vraie bonne raison d’acheter»; 2009
24
Capital Dynamics; «Perspectives»; 2009
II. Characteristics
cs of the Private Equity secondary market - 29 -
Figure 11:: Importance of the secondary market to investors’ Private Equity strategies
Source: Author’s own based on data from Preqin; «Private Equity Secondary Market: Short-term
Short boom, long-
term growth»; 2009.
According to a survey by Fidequity, more than 80% of investors in the Private Equity
secondary market seek to increase their exposure to this asset class25.
Furthermore, the GPs’ attitude toward secondary transactions carried out in their funds is
carrie out by Preqin26 showed that whereas nearly 63% of GPs
generally positive.. A study carried
have experienced a secondary transaction in their funds, only 25% of them have expressed
concerns regarding these sales.
25
Fidequity; «Global
Global Private Equity Limited Partner Survey-Q3
Survey 2009»; Q3 2009
26
Preqin; «Private
Private Equity Secondary Market: Short-term
Short boom, long-term growth»;; 2009
27
See appendix 7.13, which includes a summary of the call to Campbell Lutyens (10 March 2010)
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 30 -
Preqin, 47% of currently active financial advisers have entered the market since 200328. This
is a growing sector and it is forecast that new advisers will enter the market in coming years
to exploit new market opportunities, but also to compensate for declines in the main
fundraising activity of many placement agents. However, one must distinguish specialist
advisory firms in the secondary market from brokerage firms which have no advisory
capabilities in structuring and valuation of complex transactions. The three largest advisory
firms in the secondary market that advise on the largest transactions are UBS PFG, Cogent
Partners and Campbell Lutyens. The advisers mainly act on behalf of the seller and they
advise them in numerous ways29.
• Knowledge of the market: the adviser knows the current state of the market and the
preferences of large buyers.
• To structure transactions: the adviser knows the different options for structuring
transaction and their advantages and drawbacks. He can advise on the most appropriate
and then structure it.
• Price orientation: evaluating a price range for the asset, evaluating the fund’s underlying
assets and detailing the valuation method. The adviser knows the current valuations of
the market and has a team capable of modelling the asset price.
• Detailed knowledge of the buyers in the secondary market: adds value in the marketing
strategy, knows the potential buyers and can contact them.
• To manage the process: advises in the selection of the most suitable sale process
(auction, private sale…), provides suitable information, manages the queries, coordinates
legal advisers, receives bids, reviews them and assesses which is the best.
• To close the process: manages the transfer of funds and closes the transaction.
Seeking the service of an adviser is highly advisable when carrying out a secondary market
transaction because it typically achieves the best returns (in the acquisition or sale) and
provides for the efficient management of many complex issues (portfolio analysis, valuation,
legal, terms, etc.)30.
Advisers usually charge a commission that depends on the characteristics of each
transaction (size, unfunded part, complexity) and according to the base used to calculate the
commission (NAV + unfunded; transaction price + unfunded; transaction price). The data
28
Preqin; «The 2009 Preqin Private Equity Secondaries Review»; 2009
29
Dow Jones; «Guide to secondary market intermediaries»; 2009
30
“As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.” – Benjamin
Disraeli
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 31 -
gathered for this analysis indicates commissions are usually between 1% and 3.5% of the
sale amount defined as the NAV + unfunded31.
31
See appendix 7, which summarises the calls to Secondmarket (1 December 2009); Breslin AG (2 December
2009); Pantheon Ventures (9 December 2009); Campbell Lutyens (10 December 2009); UBS PFG (2 February
2010)
32
See list of financial advisers in the secondary market in appendix 1.1. This table contains advisers and
intermediaries
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 32 -
He also advises his client in the drafting of the PSA, in which important clauses such as
contingent conditions, clawback conditions, material adverse change clauses (MAC) or
compensation clauses will have to be negotiated.
All these considerations are crucial to the acquisition/sale process in the secondary market
and may be unfamiliar to the counterparties requiring experts be engaged to analyse these
details to ensure transaction success.
33
Table 2: Legal advisers on the secondary market
Few legal firms have a practice dedicated to secondary transactions, however in the case of
direct transactions (acquisition of a direct interest in a portfolio company), legal firms that
advise on mergers and acquisitions transactions are usually hired.
33
See list of legal advisers in the secondary market in appendix 1.2. Only legal firms with a dedicated practice
are included.
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 33 -
Figure 12: Breakdown by seller type in the secondary market (2008 vs. 2009)
100% 3.1%
5.4%
90% 6.8% 12.4% Corporate
10.8%
80% 11.3%
Endowment
70% 5.2%
18.9%
60% Family office /
25.8% Foundation
50%
27.0% Pension funds (Public
40%
and private)
30%
Asset manager
20% 42.3%
31.1%
10% Financial institutions
0%
H1 07 to H1 08 H1 08 to H1 09
Source: Author’s own based on data from UBS Private Funds Group; «Adams Street Secondary Networking
Event»; 2010. Breakdown is based on number of transactions brought to market. Asset managers include
Private Equity GPs, fund of funds and hedge funds.
Investors in funds (limited partners) usually represent close to 75% of the number of
transactions and managers (General Partners) the remaining 25% according to data
published by UBS34.
34
UBS Private Funds Group; «Adams Street Secondary Networking Event»; 2010. Based on the number of
transactions in the market.
35
Real Deals; «Secondaries roundtable 2009»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 34 -
• Banks36: These entities tend to enter and exit the Private Equity market in cycles.
Many of the banks have invested in this asset class to be able to finance leveraged
buyouts (LBOs) and to advise on mergers and acquisitions. In periods of crisis, banks
are incapable of playing their financing role, which compels them to reduce their
exposure to this asset class that has never been a core business. Currently they are
the most important sellers in the secondary market. Recent transactions include the
sale of a $1.9bn Private Equity portfolio of Bank of America to Axa PE in April 2010
and the $1.1bn sale of Citi’s fund-of-funds, mezzanine fund, feeder fund and co-
investment fund interests to Lexington in July 2010. Bank of America was said at the
end of July 2010 to be in talks with Lexington Partners and the sovereign wealth fund
China Investment Corp (CIC) to sell $1.2bn (€930mn) in commitments made to funds
managed by Warburg Pincus according to several people familiar with the
transaction.
• Pension funds: They are large asset owners that invest capital obtained through the
accumulated savings of a group of people in order to make payments to their
stakeholders once they have reached retirement age. Preqin details in a report that
on average these investors seek to allocate 6.2% of their assets to the Private Equity
asset class37. According to a study by the National Association of Pension Funds in the
United Kingdom, pension funds in the United Kingdom have reduced their
percentage allocation to Private Equity from 2.5% on average in June 2008 to 1% in
June 200938. For example, Calpers, the pension fund of the public employees of the
state of California ($237.1 billion AUM) sold more than $2 billion of interests in
Private Equity funds in 2008.
• Insurance companies: These companies offer insurance policies to the public by
direct sale or through other sources such as the employees’ benefit plan. They
manage large sums of money and invest a portion in Private Equity. According to a
study by Preqin, they seek to allocate 3.7% of their assets to the Private Equity39
asset class.
• Listed funds of funds40: These are listed investment vehicles. A true “closed box” (it
has no income apart from the distributions of the fund in which it is invested) until it
issues additional securities. These vehicles employ an over-commitment strategy and
are highly leveraged. In the midst of the financial market crisis, they suffered greatly
36
See appendix 7.4, which summarises the email from Preqin (2 December 2009)
37
Preqin; «2009 Global Private Equity Review»; 2009
38
Web page: http://www.AltAssets.com/private-equity-news/by-pe-sector/buy-out/article/nz17417.html
39
Preqin; «Survey by insurance companies investing in Private Equity»; October 2009
40
See appendix 7.4, which summarises the email from Preqin (2 December 2009)
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 35 -
from reduction in fund distributions and severely reduced access to credit leading to
increased use of the secondary market.
• Endowments41: These funds seek to cover a part or all the needs of the institutions
to which they belong with the returns on their investment portfolios. According to a
study by Preqin these funds on average seek to allocate 11.8% of their assets to the
Private Equity asset class42. Another “closed box”, these funds have no income and
employ an over-commitment strategy. Accordingly they have had the same problem
as listed funds because of the reduction in fund distributions. The largest are those of
American universities, such as Harvard ($26billion) which has had to access the
secondary market to comply with its liquidity needs.
• Foundations and family offices: Foundations are non-profit organisations that
dedicate their assets to pursuing general aims and family offices are companies that
advise wealthy families. On average, these institutions seek to allocate 11.1% of their
assets to the Private Equity asset class43.
41
See appendix 7.4, which summarises the email from Preqin (2 December 2009)
42
Preqin; «Survey by Endowments investing in Private Equity»; October 2009
43
Preqin; «2009 Global Private Equity Review»; 2009
44
Probitas Partners ; «Private Equity Market Review and Institutional Investor Survey»; 2009
II. Characteristics
cs of the Private Equity secondary market - 36 -
Source: Author’s own based on data from Cogent Partners; «Secondary Pricing analysis Summer 2009»; 2009.
According to a study by Cogent Partners, during the first half of 2009, 57% of the investors
by volume were traditional45.
i. Traditional buyers
According to present analysis of secondary buyers (see in appendix 2), there currently
are 140 buyers with secondary asset acquisition programmes.
• Fund-of-funds: Investment
nvestment vehicles designed to invest in other funds. In order to
diversify their portfolio and accelerate
accelerate returns, these funds usually invest a portion
p of
their capital in the secondary market. The amount these se funds can allocate to secondary
assets (defined in their LPA) has greatly increased over time and is usually about 20%46.
• Dedicated secondary funds:
funds Analysis
nalysis of buyers in the market, the list of which is in
appendix (2.1 and 2.2), indicates a total of 77 companies that have funds dedicated to
investing in the secondary market. These firms manage a total of close to $130 billion
dary market47. According to a study by Preqin, the majority of the
dedicated to the secondary
managers are from the United States (56%) and from Europe (36%)48.
At the end of 2009 the ten largest fund managers dedicated to the secondary market
were as follows:
45
Cogent Partners; «Secondary
Secondary Pricing analysis Summer 2009»;
2009 2009
46
According to the author’s own survey. This percentage is that which they can invest in secondary assets;
however, there is no requirement to invest in secondary assets, it is a possibility
47
See appendix 2.1 and 2.2
48
Preqin; «The 2009 Preqin Private Equity Secondaries Review»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 37 -
Table 3: The ten largest dedicated fund managers at the end of 2009
Secondary funds
Rank Name of the Manager managed ($ Billions)
1 Lexington Partners 15.9
Goldman Sachs Private Equity
2 Group 12
3 HarbourVest Partners 10
4 Coller Capital 8.4
5 Credit Suisse Strategic Partners 8.2
6 Landmark Partners 6.7
7 Partners Group 6
8 AlpInvest Partners 5.3
9 AXA Private Equity 5
10 Pantheon Ventures 4.6
TOTAL 82.1
Source: Author’s own
49
Cogent Partners; «Secondary Pricing analysis Summer 2009»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 38 -
GP
9%
Foundation
11%
Pension fund
Endowment
36%
11%
Family Office
16% Insurance
company
17%
Source: Author’s own based on data from Cogent Partners; «Secondary Pricing analysis Summer 2009»; 2009.
50
Dow Jones; «Guide to secondary market intermediaries»; 2009
51
See appendix 7.2, which summarizes the call to Secondmarket (1 December 2009)
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 39 -
Partnerships that utilize QMS can trade an additional 8% of the total amount of the fund
besides the normal 2% each fiscal year without losing the limited partnership status and
associated fiscal advantages52.
52
See part 3.3.2: Fiscal considerations
53
See appendix 7.2, which summarises the call to Secondmarket (1 December 2009)
54
AltAssets’ web page: www.AltAssets.com; interview with Daniel Green; (Last accessed: 20/10/2009)
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 40 -
1.5. History
According to Wouter Moerel, a partner at AlpInvest Partners, the secondary market
has grown since its beginning due to two main factors55:
The growth of the primary Private Equity market as the base of the secondary
market.
The systemic shocks which compel investors in Private Equity (LPs) to sell their
investments for various reasons (liquidity, asset allocation, etc.)
Source: Author’s own using data from: Dow Jones; UBS (Secondary volume 2009); Private Equity Analyst;
Preqin; Chicago Board Option Exchange.
In light of these two reasons and considering historical volume and volatility in the market
(index VIX) we can highlight three major phases of the secondary market.
55
Wharton Knowledge; «Private Equity Secondary Funds: Are They Players or Opportunistic Investors?»; 9
August 2009. http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/ (last accessed: 20 December 2009)
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 41 -
56
Arun Natarajan; Web page: http://www.ventureintelligence.in/blog/2008/01/father-of-pe-secondaires.html;
(last accessed; 31 December 2009)
57
BVCA, Arshi Thind; «BVCA Research note: The Private Equity Secondary Market»; 2009
58
Sam Scherwin, Dan Burstein; «Inside the Growing Secondary Market for Venture Capital Assets»; 2007
59
Coller Capital’s web page; http://www.collercapital.com/assets/html/about_coller/coller_secondaries.html;
(last accessed: 5 January 2010)
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 42 -
From the beginning of the market until 2002 the main market driver was growth of the
primary market and only $15 billion was exchanged in the secondary market. It was still a
“cottage industry” 60.
60
Coller Capital’s web page; http://www.collercapital.com/assets/html/about_coller/coller_secondaries.html;
(last accessed: 5 January 2010)
61
Greenpark Capital; «With debt market tightening, what is the likely impact on the primary PE / secondaries
market?»; 2007
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 43 -
value (NAV) or even at a premium (called “secondary bubble” due to the intense
competition for quality assets62) and liquidity greatly increased. Reflecting the increased
issuance in the primary market the secondary market became a portfolio management tool.
This period witnessed a niche market evolve into an active market with broad supply and the
appearance of many specialist participants (buyers or advisers).
62
Greenpark Capital; «With debt market tightening, what is the likely impact on the primary PE / secondaries
market?»; 2007
63
Catherine Craig, Private Equity news; «Contrarian Secondaries firms harvest golden opportunities»; 11/02/08
64
If the discount rate (WACC) of the cash flows increases, the value of the asset falls mechanically
65
Kosman Josh; «The buyout of America» p 129; Penguin; 2009
66
Goldman Sachs Asset Management; «Observations on the Private Equity Secondary Market»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 44 -
And finally, financial institutions, some wounded severely during the crisis, have been
growth catalysts in the secondary market. The large bankruptcies and rescues such as those
of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, ABN Amro, Lloyds, HBOS, RBS or
AIG have been a source of acquisition opportunities in the market through the sale of non-
strategic assets such as Private Equity portfolios. Furthermore, the Basel II Accords multiplies
by approximately 2 to 3 the cost to banks of investing in Private Equity67 providing added
impetus for secondary sales.
Figure 17: Changes to LPs’ exposure to secondary funds over the years 2008-2009
Not
committed
to Increased
secondary 34%
funds…
Decreased
4%
No change
33%
Source: Author’s own based on data from Coller Capital; «Global Private Equity Barometer - Winter 2009-
2010»; 2009.
67
Greenpark Capital; «Impact of the credit crunch on the secondaries market»; 2008
See section II, part 4.2.2. i. Basel II
68
Dow Jones; «Guide to Secondary Market Buyers»; 2009
69
According to a survey by UBS at the beginning of 2009. UBS PFG; «Secondary capabilities pitchbook»;
October 2009
II. Characteristics
cs of the Private Equity secondary market - 45 -
In 2008 and 2009 sellers accepted large discounts to net asset value (NAV) of sold assets.
The NAV of their investments refers to the last value published by the GP (published each
ea
quarter). Due to valuation reductions from one quarter to another (due to the fall in the
value of portfolio companies) and their urgent need for liquidity, sellers were forced to
accept high discounts.
To
o compensate for risk incurred by this lack of economic visibility return requirements on
their investments increases and higher
high discounts to NAV are offered. Sellers
ellers that have higher
price expectations do not agree and due to the wider bid/offer spread transactions are not
carried out as demonstrated by a study undertaken by Triago indicating that 86% of
transactions in 2008 were not carried out due to low valuations.
Figure 18:: Proportion of investors who ruled out transactions in 2008 because of pricing concerns
14%
Yes
No
86%
Source: Author’s own based on data from Triago; «The Secondary Seller's Options»; 2009.
70
See legal considerations, material adverse change clause
71
Private Equity Online; «MAC
MAC uncertainty grips sellers in secondary market»;
market 03/11/08
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 46 -
Figure 19: Two types of secondary transactions: sale of limited partnership interest and direct sale
manage and ultimately sell the vehicle’s assets72. A sale can also be accomplished by
acquiring the assets with a vehicle managed by specialised direct sales managers.
A GP may also create an annex fund that takes ownership in companies of the other fund. In
times of crisis underlying companies may need additional investment
nvestment but the GPs may not
have the fund resources to back follow-on
follow on investments. Therefore many create annex funds
that invest in the portfolio companies with preferred conditions of returns (1.5 to 2 times
the initial investment) and management fees (low
(low management fees and carried interest).
If the GP wants to sell direct company interests out of funds managed there are different
sales structures that can be adapted to the manager’s needs.
According to UBS the sales of limited partnership interests, by transaction volume, usually
represent close to two thirds of the total transactions while direct transactions represent the
other third. However, in 2009, direct transactions only represented 15% of total
transactions73.
Figure 20:: Transaction volume breakdown – (Limited partnership interest and Direct sale) (2007 to
2009)
Source: Author’s own based on UBS data; «Adams Street Secondary Networking Event»; 2010.
72
Wharton Knowledge; «Private
Private Equity Secondary Funds: Are They Players or
or Opportunistic Investors?»; 9
August 2009. http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/ (last accessed: 20 December 2009)
73
UBS Private Funds Group; «Adams Street Secondary Networking Event»;
Event»; 10 February 2010
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 48 -
All the structures from the table above can be applied to each type of transaction: sale of a
limited partnership interest or direct sale. The exception is securitisation of the unfunded
which is a structure that can only be applied to the sale of a limited partnership interest
given that it is the only type of transaction that would entail an unfunded commitment.
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 49 -
As can be seen in the table above each sales structure depends on the type of asset sold and
on the objectives and concerns of the different parties. The structures presented in the table
demonstrate there are various options available to satisfy a seller’s requirements.
Figure 23: Traditional sale structure: straight sale of a limited partnership interest
74
Probitas; «Second thoughts newsletter»; 2009
75
Campbell Lutyens; «The Private Equity Secondaries market: a complete guide to its structure transaction and
performance»; PEIbooks, 2008
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 51 -
Figure 24: Structure of a stapled secondary sale of a portfolio of limited partnership interests
76
See appendix 7.1, which summarises the call to UBS (26 November 2009)
77
The investor may have the chance to use the losses as a tax shield
78
UBS Private Funds Group; «Private Equity Secondary Market Review»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 52 -
on the seller’s objectives - liquidity, reduction of risks, relief from capital calls, etc. - the
terms can be highly specific to each structure.
Source: Adapted from UBS Private Funds Group; «Private Equity Secondary Market Review»; 2009.
For example, if a seller cannot assume large capital calls, the buyer may finance it. In
exchange the buyer receives all the distributions up to 100% of the capital invested. Then,
depending on the asset and the terms of the transaction, he receives the vast majority of the
distributions (between 80% and 90%) until reaching a preferred return of between 1.5 to 2
times his investment. When this return has been exceeded, the distributions change with
the LP receiving the majority of the distributions (between 70% and 90%)79.
Seller financing or financing by a third party80:
When structuring a transaction the financing variable is crucial. In order to finance the asset
acquisition, the buyer may request financing in order to leverage the acquisition, lower its
financing cost and obtain some downside protection. Besides the loan, he may request a
credit line in order to finance any imbalance that may appear between the capital calls and
distributions.
79
Dow Jones; «Guide to secondary market Intermediaries»; 2009
80
See appendix 7.1, which summarises the call to UBS (26 November 2009)
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 53 -
He may request this financing from a third party or, since credit availability is currently
restricted, from the seller.
Figure 26: Total return swaps for a portfolio of limited partnership interests
Source: Author’s own using data from Probitas Partners; «Routes to liquidity»; 2009.
Advantages:
Maximises the asset price
Rapid execution (it does not need the GP’s approval)
Drawbacks:
It does not remove the asset from the “seller’s” balance sheet and does not
generate liquidity upfront (there is no initial payment)
The contract entails the creation of counterparty risk.
81
Kelly DePonte; Probitas Partners; «Routes to liquidity»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 54 -
82
Kelly DePonte; Probitas Partners; «Routes to liquidity»; 2009
83
Private Equity Analyst; «Secondary firms cook up new ways to close deals»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 55 -
NYPPEX has also developed a certain type of derivative contract called NYPPEX GICCO
(Guaranteed Capital Call Obligation) that acts as insurance. An LP that does not wish to
finance its unfunded commitment can buy a GICCO protection for a defined period of time.
This contract transfers the financing obligation (the unfunded commitments) to the buyer of
the contract who, should the GP make a capital call during the period of the contract,
provides capital funding and in exchange receives a preferred return on the distributions of
about 1.5 to 2.0 times the investment made. For this transaction NYPPEX charges a
commission of close to 2.5% of the unfunded and mostly to the buyer.
This structure developed by Probitas and NYPPEX is very innovative but has not yet been
implemented.
2.2.8 Spin-out
The term spin-out is used in the Private Equity secondary market when the buyer
acquires an entire portfolio of captive assets. Generally buyers are the previous fund
managers alongside a secondary investment firm. The most famous example of this type of
transaction is that of MidOcean Partners which acquired alongside AlpInvest in 2003 the
portfolio of assets that their managers previously managed in Deutsche Bank for €1.3 billion.
One of the most recent is that of the Venture Capital group of Lehman Brothers (Lehman
Brothers Venture Partners) whose management team and HarbourVest bought in January
2009 for an undisclosed amount84 and called the new entity Tenaya Capital. The secondary
investor may or may not include the management team in the transaction.
This sale structure is usually accompanied by a stapled secondary given that the fund
managers wish to secure interests in subsequent funds in order to continue their investment
activity85.
2.2.9 Tail-end
This sale structure refers to the sale of the remaining assets in a fund that is
approaching or has exceeded its expected life. In this type of transaction the GP seeks to sell
the remaining assets of the fund by means of an accelerated traditional sale that preserves
the IRR already achieved by the fund.
84
Harbourvest press release: http://www.harbourvest.com/news_and_events/pressreleases/1029.htm; last
accessed: 10 January 2010
85
Campbell Lutyens; «The Private Equity Secondaries market: a complete guide to its structure transaction and
performance»; PEIbooks, 2008
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 56 -
Source: Author’s own; data from Triago; «The secondary seller’s options»; 2009 and Clark, Geoffrey, and
Christopher Kojima; «Opportunities and challenges in Secondaries» Goldman Sachs in The Journal of
Alternative Investment, 74-86; 2003.
86
Triago; «The secondary seller’s options»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 57 -
87
Web page Financial Planning; «Private Equity gets liquid»; www.financial-planning.com; 2009
88
Carta Diem; «Private Equity Solutions»; 2005
Triago; «The secondary seller’s options»; 2009
89
Moreno-Barberá Participaciones Financieras; «El Mercado secundario de capital riesgo»; January 2006
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 58 -
90
Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale and Dorr LLP; «Trends in the Private Equity Secondary Market»; 2009
91
See appendix 7.10, which summarizes the meeting with SJberwin (14 December 2009)
92
Preqin; «The 2009 Preqin Private Equity Secondaries Review»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 59 -
93
VCFA group; «Secondary sales of Private Equity interests»; 2002
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 60 -
94
VCFA group; «Secondary sales of Private Equity interests»; 2002
95
Kaye Scholer LLP; «Key legal and transactional issues in secondary Private Equity fund transaction»; 2009
96
Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale and Dorr LLP; «Trends in the Private Equity Secondary Market»; 2009
97
Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale and Dorr LLP; «Trends in the Private Equity Secondary Market»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 61 -
When sellers are distressed they may use thresholds in an attempt to obligate buyers
to purchase less attractive assets when acquiring an interest in a high-quality fund.
3.2.5 Indemnifications98
General partners request indemnifications for breaches of covenants,
representations, and warranties in the sale agreement. Buyers and sellers seek to limit these
indemnification requirements. However the seller and the buyer have little room to
negotiate with the GP given that the same must consent to the transaction.
98
Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale and Dorr LLP; «Trends in the Private Equity Secondary Market»; 2009
99
Private Equity magazine; «L’envol du secondaire»; August 2008
100
Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale and Dorr LLP; «Trends in the Private Equity Secondary Market»; 2009
101
Dow Jones; «Guide to secondary market buyers»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 62 -
102
Dow Jones; «Guide to secondary market intermediaries»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 63 -
This distribution hypothesis is designed to target an average fund age of 5-years. This
average transaction age of a fund is justified by historical averages that have fallen over time
(they were previously above 5 years; today they are closer to 4.5 years).
By multiplying the probability percentage by funds raised in the primary market in the
corresponding years, the potential volume of primary commitments that are likely to be sold
in the secondary market can be deduced. This potential transaction volume will be called the
secondary base.
103
Model available in appendix 9. Based on a study by Cogent Partners: «Secondary market model projections»
(2006) and a study by Alex Sao-Wei Lee: «Private Equity secondary funds and their competitive strategies»
(2003)
II. Characteristics
cs of the Private Equity secondary market - 64 -
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
The present downside case assumes a historical turnover rate for the period 1995 to
2009 of 5.6%. This hypothesis is very conservative given that it does not take into account
the new dynamic of the secondary market. It estimates a compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) of 13% in volumes transacted in the secondary market which translates to an
average of $17.5 billion per annum in the next five years.
The base case uses the most recent trend from 2003 to 2009 in which 6.4% of the
secondary base was exchanged in the secondary market. If this trend is confirmed, it is
forecast the market will represent an average of $20 billion per annum during the next five
years. This assumption which represents the base or most realistic case estimates a
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% in the volumes exchanged on the secondary
market.
The present upside case uses the turnover rate of the assets for the period 2003-
2008. Taking this hypothesis of a 7.2% turnover rate allows taking into account the different
future growth catalysts that have appeared mainly due to the crisis effects (denominator
effect, financial pressure on investors due to a fall in distributions, and acceleration of capital
calls) and the new regulations in force (Basel II, “Volcker Rule”). According to this scenario,
the market will grow 19% per annum (CAGR) and will represent an average of $22.5 billion
per annum of secondary transactions during the next five years.
Figure 31: Estimates of the secondary market transaction volume according to the historical
relationship ($ billions)
30
25
Downside
case (5.6%)
20
Base case
(6.4%)
15
Upside case
10 (7.2%)
Secondary
5
transaction
volume
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
Source: Author’s own using data from: Dow Jones; «Guide to Secondary Market Buyers»; 2009 (1996-2008)/
UBS Private Funds Group; «Adams Street Secondary Networking Event»; 2010 (2009)/ Author’s own
projections.
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 66 -
104
Using the estimates of the downside and upside cases of the projections model.
105
Ari Nathanson, Reuters; «LPs rush for exits, overwhelming secondary market»; 15 December 2008,
www.reuters.com (Last accessed: 6 November 2009)
106
Fidequity; «Global Private Equity LP survey – Q3 2009»; 2009
107
Coller Capital; «Global Private Equity Barometer - Winter 2009»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 67 -
Figure 32: LPs’ anticipated level of Private Equity commitments at the end of 2010
100%
90%
80% Lower than target
70% allocation
60%
50% Equal to target
40% allocation
30%
20% In excess of target
10% allocation
0%
North American LPs European LPs Asia-Pacific LPs
Source: Author’s own based on data from Coller Capital; «Global Private Equity Barometer - Winter 2009»;
2009.
However, some investors, in order to rebalance their portfolio, have increased their Private
Equity allocation (for example, the pension fund CalSTRS had an allocation of 14.4% of its
portfolio when the threshold for this asset class was only 11%; they finally increased their
allocation limit to 15%108). Other pension funds and insurance companies over-allocated to
this asset class have also forced some GPs to lower their NAVs in order to reduce their total
exposure to this asset class.
Fund-of-funds
Wait and see
Source: Author’s own based on data from Fidequity; «Global Private Equity LP survey – Q3 2009»; 2009.
108
Preqin; «Global Private Equity review»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 68 -
According to a survey by Fidequity carried out in the third quarter of 2009, only 10% of
investors in Private Equity (except secondary funds and funds of funds) and 22% of the funds
of funds considered accessing the secondary market to solve their over allocation to Private
Equity.
i. Basel II
Since the implementation of the new Basel II accords which modify the weighting of
assets, the cost of financing Private Equity investments has been multiplied by
approximately 2.0x to 3.0x110. Private Equity assets weigh between 190% and 400%
(depending on the regulator in each country and on the interpretation of Basel II) of their
NAV more than their unfunded part111. In order to comply with the solvency ratios (CT1, Tier
1, Tier 2) banks have to strengthen their balance sheets by increasing capital resources or
selling assets. Private Equity assets, in addition to being illiquid, have now become expensive
to own for the banks who had generally invested in this asset class as a means to win
business with the funds (“pay-to-play funds”) but have never considered these to be
strategic assets112.
109
Sarría, Ignacio; «¿Qué pasa en el mercado “secundario” de capital riesgo?»; 14 April 2009,
www.cotizalia.com; (last accessed: 13 January 2010)
110
Greenpark Capital; «Impact of the credit crunch on the secondaries market»; 2008
111
See appendix 7.13 which summarises the call to Campbell Lutyens (10 March 2010)
112
Hoflich Peter; «The search for liquidity focuses on disposing of illiquid assets»; 4 February 2010;
http://www.theinvestoraudit.com/ (last accessed: 05 de February 2010)
113
Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP; «Senate-House Conference Agrees on Final Volcker Rule»; 25 June 2010
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 69 -
many banks will be forced to sell off Private Equity assets mostly by spinning out their
Private Equity investment group (such as Citigroup did in July 2010) or wait and allow the
funds to harvest their investments and wind-down.
The table above provides an estimate of the capacity the five major US banks have to make
proprietary investments in alternative funds. It demonstrates this limit is likely to force
banks such as Goldman Sachs to divest assets from its Private Equity investments. Also this
could result in Goldman abandoning its Bank holding charter so as to avoid the Volcker rule.
The other aspect of the rule would prevent banks from owning a commitment that
represents more than three per cent of the fund’s total capitalization which will force many
banks to sell part of their holdings in Private Equity funds.
Banks would have two years to comply with this new rule and can qualify for an additional
period of three years. Also, banks can benefit from another five year extension to divest
interests in so-called illiquid funds. Essentially banks may have up to ten years to divest
Private Equity assets.
Source: JP Morgan Asset Management; «Secondary Private Equity Discussions»; 2009; Thomson Financial/
VentureXpert.
Economic uncertainty combined with the high volatility of the markets has slowed the pace
of the capital calls. According to a study by Cogent Partners, capital calls in the first quarter
of 2009 represented 24% of those made in the fourth quarter of 2007114.
However since economic indicators are improving GPs are expected to accelerate capital
calls within the coming months which, combined with historically low distributions, will
increase financial pressure on LPs115. According to a study by Fidequity in 2009 more than
80% of traditional and non-traditional investors forecast that GPs were going to increase the
pace of capital calls in the next 12 months116.
114
Cogent Partners; «Cogent Research: First Quarter 2009 Valuation and Cash Flow Analysis»; 2009
115
Permal Capital Management LLC; «Private Equity observations-Golden age of secondaries?»; August 2009
116
Fidequity; «Global Private Equity LP survey – Q3 2009»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 71 -
Moderatly increase
Significantly increase
Non-traditional
Moderatly decrease
Traditional
Significantly decrease
Source: Author’s own based on data from Fidequity; «Global Private Equity LP survey – Q3 2009»; 2009.
According to a survey by Coller Capital it is likely that 10% of LPs will not be able to comply
with their financing requirements within the next two years117 dramatically increasing their
need for liquidity. Therefore, in order to prevent default, these LPs are likely to seek liquidity
by accessing the secondary market118.
117
Coller Capital; «Global Private Equity Barometer - Summer 2009»; 2009
118
The Boston Consulting Group, Inc.; IESE; «Driving the shakeout in private equity: The role of investors in the
industry’s renaissance»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 72 -
119
Wharton Knowledge; «Private Equity Secondary Funds: Are They Players or Opportunistic Investors?»; 9
August 2009. http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/ (last accessed: 20 December 2009)
120
See section III; 3.3.4. The lag of the NAV
121
See 4.2.3. An increasing pressure on the investors: fall in the distributions combined with an increase in the
capital calls
122
See appendix 7.3 and 7.9 which summarise the call to Breslin (2 December 2009) and Campbell Lutyens (10
December 2009)
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 73 -
traditional and non-traditional investors forecast this spread will have fallen enough at the
end of the first half of 2010 to be able to stimulate deal flow123.
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Traditional
Q3 2010
Non-traditional
Q4 2010
2011 or later
Never
Source: Author’s own based on data from Fidequity; «Global Private Equity LP survey – Q3 2009»; 2009.
The sellers and the fund managers (GPs) must also have realistic pricing expectations
reflecting future value rather than historical market valuations124. Fund managers must
value their investments in a fair manner (fair value) to avoid creating an imbalance between
the valuations. When the spread is reduced, participants will be able to agree on valuations
and deal flow will be able to grow to never-before-seen levels in this market.
123
Fidequity; «Global Private Equity LP survey – Q3 2009»; 2009
124
Wharton Knowledge; «Private Equity Secondary Funds: Are They Players or Opportunistic Investors?»; 9
August 2009. http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/ (last accessed: 20 December 2009)
125
Coller Capital; «Global Private Equity Barometer - Winter 2009-2010»; 2009
II. Characteristics of the Private Equity secondary market - 74 -
Figure 37: Anticipated changes to LP’s exposure to secondary funds over 2010-2011
No plans to
invest Increase
26% 32%
Decrease
5%
No change
37%
Source: Author’s own based on data from Coller Capital; «Global Private Equity Barometer - Winter 2009-
2010»; 2009.
126
UBS Private Funds Group; «Secondary capabilities» (Pitchbook); 2009
PART III:
This section focuses on valuation in the Private Equity secondary market. Given that
transactions of direct interests in portfolio companies are valued according to well
established valuation methods, this section will concentrate on the valuation of limited
partnership interests and intends to provide a reliable guide to valuation in the secondary
market.
127
Analysis in appendix 10. Historical valuations in the secondary market by asset type
128
See Cogent Partners «Secondary Pricing Trends and Analysis» available on Cogent Partners’ website
129
The valuations de the Private Equity portfolios (NAV) are usually published each quarter.
III. Valuation in the Private Equity secondary market - 77 -
Figure 38: Secondary bids over time (as a % of last fund’s NAV)
110%
100%
90%
Average
High
80%
Average
70%
Median
60%
Average
50% Low
40%
30%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 H108 H208 H1 09 H2 09 H1 10
Source: Author’s own using data from Cogent Partners pricing analysis (2007-2008-2009-2010).
The figure above portrays the historical trend in the secondary market and the spread in the
different bids. One can clearly see a very large increase in valuations from the first half of
2009 to the first half of 2010 at 79.6% of NAV.
However, this analysis does not take into account the funds’ funding ratios and can
therefore be altered by a change in the mix of the assets placed in the market.
Given that the least funded interests entail greater unfunded commitments for buyers, the
application of a discount on this unfunded part (that must be funded at nominal value)
mathematically entails an even larger discount on the asset’s NAV. In order to overcome this
effect it is necessary to compare the value of the bid plus the unfunded part with the total
value of the exposure to the asset (that is, the value of the last published NAV plus the
unfunded part of the asset)130.
130
Cogent Partners; «Secondary Pricing trends & analysis, January 2010»; 2010
III. Valuation in the Private Equity secondary market - 78 -
Figure 39: Value of the best bid in comparison with the total exposure to the asset (NAV +
unfunded)
110%
100%
90%
80%
% of total
70% exposure
60%
% of NAV
50%
40%
30%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 H108 H208 H1 09 H2 09
Source: Author’s own using data from Cogent Partners pricing analysis (2007-2008-2009).
Given the liquidity squeeze that has affected many institutions since the market downturn in
2007, many institutions have wanted to get rid of the unfunded commitments on their
balance sheets. This has led to many highly unfunded limited partnership interests being
offered in the market.
This analysis removes the effect of the change in the mix of the assets available in the
market. Upon comparing the two analyses in the graph above, we can clearly observe the
effect of the credit crisis that increased the mix of highly unfunded interests sold in the
market.
We can also observe that the recent increase in secondary valuations is not due to a change
in the mix of the assets but rather is based on a real increase in the valuation of the
underlying assets.
Furthermore it may be highlighted that the current valuation slightly exceeds that of 2003
when the market rebounded after the technology bubble burst. Therefore, the current trend
seems to be following the historical trend.
Figure 40: Historical valuation of the best bids received for each fund type (% of the NAV)
120%
110% LBO
100%
90%
80%
Venture Capital
70%
60%
50%
40% Others (Real estate,
30% infrastructure,
20% distressed)
Source: Author’s own using data from Cogent Partners pricing analysis (2007-2008-2009).
Clearly, there is an overall trend in the secondary market. We may also highlight in the graph
above a trend for each type of asset exchanged in the secondary market. This is due to the
fact that underlying assets of each fund evolve differently according to economic cycles.
Valuation of the funds is therefore driven by valuation of the underlying assets.
Although sector specific valuations for the years 2003-2004 are not available, the period
after the technology bubble burst stands out with the low valuation of Venture Capital funds
that reflect the fall in the valuation of these funds’ underlying assets.
Since 2009, the value of leveraged buyout funds has been lower (68.9% of their NAV) than
those of Venture Capital (75.4% of their NAV) due to the impairment of many portfolio
companies in these funds which are highly leveraged and therefore have a high default risk
in difficult economic conditions combined with high refinancing risk.
The table above demonstrates that leveraged buyout funds follow this correlation unlike
Venture Capital funds. The additional discount applied to mature Venture Capital funds can
be explained in that buyers discount the risk these mature funds will not have enough
capital to fund next rounds of financing if required by their portfolio companies. For this
reason the GPs of these funds will have to invest in these companies from subsequent funds
or may need to raise annex funds that usually have preferred conditions131 and are more
dilutive.
131
Cogent Partners; «Secondary Pricing analysis interim update, summer 2009»; 2009
III. Valuation in the Private Equity secondary market - 81 -
Figure 41: Valuation according to the vintage year of the fund (H1 2009) in % of its NAV
2008 41.3%
2007 26.1%
2006 39.7%
Source: Author’s own based on data from Cogent Partners; «Secondary Pricing analysis interim update,
summer 2009»; 2009; average of the best bids received for all the funds.
Upon analysing the graph above, it highlights the low valuations for the vintage years 2006
to 2008 with 2007 being the lowest (26.1% of the NAV). These valuations may be explained
by the fact that while 2006 vintage funds paid higher multiples for their investee companies
and 2008 vintage funds have a low funding ratio, 2007 is the only vintage year that is
affected by both issues132.
1.2.1 Concept133
Listed Private Equity funds are listed vehicles that allow participation in Private Equity
investments in unlisted companies or in fund portfolios, without needing to invest much
money or be an institutional investor.
There are two broad types of listed Private Equity funds:
Listed funds that invest directly134: These funds invest directly in companies that
together constitute a Private Equity portfolio. Example: HgCapital.
Fund of funds135: These funds invest in a portfolio of Private Equity funds that
then invest in companies. Example: Pantheon International Participations.
132
Cogent Partners; «Secondary Pricing analysis interim update, summer 2009»; 2009
133
Listed Private Equity Association; «Eight Steps for analysing Listed Private Equity Companies»; 2009
134
See scheme available in appendix 11.1
III. Valuation in the Private Equity secondary market - 82 -
There are also hybrid funds such as Graphite Enterprise or Electra Private Equity that invest
directly and indirectly (through Private Equity funds) in companies.
Listed funds that are invested directly are usually managed by an investment firm that may
be related to the listed vehicle (Beteiligungs AG) or not (Standard Life European Private
Equity). In any case, even if the listed vehicle has no ownership interest in its investment
firm, the manager usually has the same name as the listed fund (F&C Private Equity
managed by F&C Asset Management).
Figure 42: Historical trading of the listed Private Equity funds – Premium / (discount) with its NAV
136
Source: UBS; Thomson Datastream (19 July 2010) .
As of the 19th of July 2010, these funds on average were trading at 66.4% of their NAV (that
is, with a 33.6% of discount).
After comparing the historical trend of the trading average of some listed Private Equity
funds to the best bids received in secondary transactions it is apparent there is a very clear
correlation.
135
See scheme available in appendix 11.2
136
The index includes the following listed Private Equity funds: Candover Investment Trust, Dunedin Enterprise
Investment Trust, Electra Private Equity Investment Trust, F&C Private Equity A Trust, F&C Private Equity B
Trust, Graphite Enterprise Trust, HG Capital Trust, Mithras Investment Trust, New Star Private Equity, Northern
Investors Company, Pantheon International Participations, Prelude Trust plc, Private Equity Investors plc,
Standard Life European Private Equity Trust, and SVG Capital.
III. Valuation in the Private Equity secondary market - 83 -
Figure 43: Comparison between trading of listed Private Equity funds and bids received in the
secondary market
120%
110%
Average
100% highest
90% bid on the
80% secondary
market
70%
60%
Listed
50%
Private
40% Equity
30% funds
2006 2007 H108 H208 H1 09 H2 09 H1 10
Source: Author’s own using data from UBS and Cogent Partners pricing analysis.
Preqin, a firm that undertakes studies and maintains databases of the secondary market,
developed an algorithm that provides price indications for interests in the market by using
the trading activity of listed Private Equity funds. It has demonstrated a correlation between
trading of these funds and their valuations in the secondary market. However, in order to
accurately estimate the real value of these assets, the following elements need to be
considered: fund type (VC/LBO/ Other), vintage year, GP’s historical returns, fund’s track
record, funding ratio and market effect137.
137
See appendix 7.4 which summarises the email from Preqin (2 December 2009)
138
See appendix 7.9 which summarises the call with Campbell Lutyens (10 December 2010)
III. Valuation in the Private Equity secondary market - 84 -
In view of these limitations, the use of trading activity of listed Private Equity funds
may not be an entirely accurate measure of the real value of secondary assets. It does
however allow approximating the general trend of the market.
III. Valuation in the Private Equity secondary market - 85 -
Source: Author’s own using data from Clark, Geoffrey, and Christopher Kojima. «Opportunities and challenges
in Secondaries»; Goldman Sachs in The Journal of Alternative Investment, 74-86; 2003.
However, depending on the manager and the LPA, there may be different ways to value the
assets and calculate the NAV. For this reason one must first check that the NAV used in the
valuation reflects the real value of the underlying assets and that they are valued in the
same way as comparable funds.
Currently managers use very similar methods to calculate the NAV of their fund given that
organisations such as the IPEV (International Private Equity and Venture Capital Valuation) in
Europe or the PEIGG (Private Equity Industry Guidelines Group) in the United States have
created Private Equity fund valuation guides which strongly influence the general method to
be followed in calculating the NAV of portfolio assets139.
This valuation model, used by the majority of secondary market investors, requires flexibility
that allows simulation of different assumptions according to the scenario being analysed
(upside, base, downside).
basically consists of projecting the value of the assets over time by using growth and
valuation assumptions.
This valuation depends on the type of asset: debt or equity, leveraged buyout, Venture
Capital, real estate, infrastructure etc. This paper does not attempt to explain the valuation
method for each type of underlying asset, but rather for a limited partnership interest. For
this reason, we shall focus more on the valuation of the two most important funds types in
the secondary market: LBO funds and Venture Capital funds.
141
Loan trading levels can be found on Markit (https://products.markit.com/home/login.jsp)
142
Clark, Geoffrey, and Christopher Kojima; «Opportunities and challenges in Secondaries»; Goldman Sachs in
The Journal of Alternative Investment, 74-86; 2003
III. Valuation in the Private Equity secondary market - 89 -
If a recent corporate transaction exists that allows us to value the company (financing, share
transaction) then this can be used to value the investment143.
143
Clark, Geoffrey and Christopher Kojima; «Opportunities and challenges in Secondaries»; Goldman Sachs in
The Journal of Alternative Investment, 74-86; 2003
144
See appendix 7.1 which summarises the call to UBS (26 November 2009)
145
Real Deals; «Secondaries roundtable 2009»; 2009
III. Valuation in the Private Equity secondary market - 90 -
multiples should be used when available information is not enough to estimate returns
according to a more objective criterion than the quality of the management team. The table
below provides projection multiples for unfunded commitments over time according to the
quality of the management team. However it does not pretend to be exact given that it may
vary by each fund type (VC, LBO, Mezzanine, etc.), size, and average historical returns146 of
the fund type which change over time.
Table 7: Projection multiples of the unfunded according to the quality of the management team
146
The historical returns usually come from databases such as Venture Expert
147
Cogent Partners; «Pricing private equity secondary transactions» 22 July 2002; www.altassets.com (last
accessed: 26 January 2010)
III. Valuation in the Private Equity secondary market - 91 -
i. Capital calls
During the investment period, usually the first 5 years of the fund’s life, the fund
managers will gradually call for the capital committed by the investors every time they find
an investment opportunity. They will also call for capital in order to cover fund
administration and management costs. Until distributions outweigh the necessary capital
calls, they will keep calling on investors. GPs may call for less than what was originally
committed by the investors (because they cannot find investment opportunities) but cannot
call for more unless the investors agree.
usually shares it between the general partner and the LPs (“management fee offset”). The
allocation of the fee is usually 80/20, that is LPs receive 80% and GPs 20%. Currently, this
consulting fee is controversial and moving more and more towards the return of all of this
fee revenue to the LPs.
The key for determining the costs of a fund is to analyse the fund’s documentation (LPA).
This provides a better understanding of future costs and allows for a more accurate
projection of the fund’s future cash flows.
4. Other distributions: The distributions that exceed the combined investor hurdle rate
and GP catch up are then allocated between the manager and the investors by following the
LPA defined allocation of the carried interest (usually 80/20). That is, 80% of the remaining
distributions go to the LP and 20% to the GP.
This division of distributions pays investors and the manager on an 80/20 basis in a specific
order that allows the investors to achieve a minimum return first and to provide incentive
for the managers to achieve good returns.
It is essential to thoroughly understand the allocation of fund distributions that are being
valued in order to project the cash flows the investor will receive.
- GP Catch up
= Cash post Hurdle and GP Catch up available for distribution
According to the survey held with different market participants, at the end of 2009 and the
beginning of 2010 this discount rate was about 20% (IRR). The asset’s present value (NPV) is
calculated by discounting the cash flows at the discount rate. Upon multiplying this value by
the percentage of the fund’s interest (% of fund’s interest = Commitment of the
interest/Total amount of the fund) the value of the interest is derived. This value will be the
maximum price that may be offered in order to achieve the return rate sought.
Due to the limitations of the valuation as a result of using the trading activity of listed Private
Equity funds, this method will not be used to value the interest. However, the current
valuation of listed funds being 66.4% of the NAV (as of 19 July 2010), the value would be
slightly inferior to the one achieved with the comparable transaction method.
149
Private and confidential, this valuation model is available upon request to Arnaud van Tichelen:
a.vantichelen@gmail.com
150
It is only necessary to introduce the data into the grey cells in the hypothesis tab and then sensitise the sale
price of the interest in the tab “command table” in order to stress the returns to the sale price, the quality of
the manager and the different scenarios (upside, base, downside).
III. Valuation in the Private Equity secondary market - 97 -
Total fund size (committed capital at nominal value) 40.000 Annual partnership Expenses 150,0
% of committed capital expected to be called for investments 100% Annual assumed director's fees, 500,0
Investor commitment (nominal value) 5% 2.000 transaction fees, investment banking fees,
break-up fees, advisory fees,
Invested capital 10.413 monitoring fees, or other similar fees
Other Capital calls to pay expenses 1.587 Fee income offset 80,0%
Total called capital 12.000 Charge on management fee 4,0%
Funding ratio 30,0% Charge on capital already commited 5,0%
Unfunded commitment 28.000
Last Euribor (1y) 1,30%
After entering the main characteristics of the fund (table 10), the financial data of the
portfolio companies and their growth assumptions must be introduced following 3 different
scenarios (downside, base, upside).
For the present analysis, we have used the financial data published in the last fund’s report
of the four portfolio companies. In this part we only present the analysis and the valuation of
Company A, however it has been done for the four portfolio companies of the fund.
The data has been projected using growth assumptions based on the managers’
expectations and on the growth rates of the sector of each company (table 11). We have
assumed that only maintenance investments (CAPEX) will be made in the portfolio
companies and that it will equal depreciation for each year. For all the companies, three
growth scenarios were developed to be able to sensitise the valuation to different cases. The
valuation multiple (“exit multiple” in the table) used in the different scenarios is the one paid
by the fund to invest in the company +/- 0.5 according to the scenario (upside/downside).
III. Valuation in the Private Equity secondary market - 98 -
Key financial inputs 30/10/2008 30/10/2009 30/10/2010 30/10/2011 30/10/2012 30/10/2013 30/10/2014 30/10/2015 30/10/2016 30/10/2017
Sales 10,014 8,848 8,317 8,151 8,151 8,314 8,564 8,820 9,085 9,358
% growth - -11.6% -6.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Upside NA NA -6.0% -2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Base NA NA -6.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Downside NA NA -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
EBITDA Margin 3,197 2,468 2,345.5 2,298.6 2,298.6 2,344.6 2,414.9 2,487.4 2,562.0 2,638.9
% margin 31.9% 27.9% 28.2% 28.2% 28.2% 28.2% 28.2% 28.2% 28.2% 28.2%
Upside NA NA 28.5% 28.8% 29.1% 29.4% 29.7% 30.0% 30.3% 30.6%
Base NA NA 28.2% 28.2% 28.2% 28.2% 28.2% 28.2% 28.2% 28.2%
Downside NA NA 27.8% 27.6% 27.4% 27.2% 27.0% 26.8% 26.6% 26.4%
Depreciation/Amortization (implied) 280 239 225 220 220 224 231 238 245 253
Exceptionnal Items - - - - - - - - - -
EBIT Margin 2,917 2,230 2,121.0 2,078.5 2,078.5 2,120.1 2,183.7 2,249.2 2,316.7 2,386.2
% margin 29.1% 25.2% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5%
Upside NA NA 26.0% 26.3% 26.6% 26.9% 27.2% 27.5% 27.8% 28.1%
Base NA NA 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5%
Downside NA NA 25.2% 25.1% 25.0% 24.9% 24.8% 24.7% 24.6% 24.5%
Net Working Capital 1,001.4 876.0 815.1 790.7 782.5 789.8 805.0 820.3 835.8 851.5
Working capital (as a % of sales) 10.0% 9.9% 9.8% 9.7% 9.6% 9.5% 9.4% 9.3% 9.2% 9.1%
Change in working capital - (125.4) (60.9) (24.5) (8.2) 7.3 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.7
151
Depends on the investment holding period (“Investment holding period” in the model), which is usually
about four years
III. Valuation in the Private Equity secondary market - 100 -
Table 12: Analysis and projection of the operating data of a portfolio company (base case)
COMPANY A
Scenario Base
Date 30/10/2008 30/10/2009 30/10/2010 30/10/2011 30/10/2012 30/10/2013 30/10/2014 30/10/2015 30/10/2016 30/10/2017
Year>>>>> 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Sales 10,014 8,848 8,317 8,151 8,151 8,314 8,564 8,820 9,085 9,358
% Growth - -11.6% -6.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
EBITDA 3,197 2,468 2,346 2,299 2,299 2,345 2,415 2,487 2,562 2,639
% margin 31.9% 27.9% 28.2% 28.2% 28.2% 28.2% 28.2% 28.2% 28.2% 28.2%
Depreciation/Amortization 280 239 225 220 220 224 231 238 245 253
Exceptional - - - - - - - - - -
EBIT 2,917 2,230 2,121 2,079 2,079 2,120 2,184 2,249 2,317 2,386
% margin 29.1% 25.2% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5%
Table 13: Projection of the debt repayment and valuation of the investment
Debt repayment and interests (€000) 30/10/2008 30/10/2009 30/10/2010 30/10/2011 30/10/2012 30/10/2013 30/10/2014 30/10/2015 30/10/2016 30/10/2017
Opening net debt Opening 7,322 6,135 4,971 3,783 2,542 1,226 - -
-Cash flow for debt repayment 1,187 1,164 1,188 1,240 1,317 1,226 - -
=Closing debt 7,322 6,135 4,971 3,783 2,542 1,226 - - -
Investment value (€000) 30/10/2008 30/10/2009 30/10/2010 30/10/2011 30/10/2012 30/10/2013 30/10/2014 30/10/2015 30/10/2016 30/10/2017
EBITDA 2,468.2 2,345.5 2,298.6 2,298.6 2,344.6 2,414.9 2,487.4 2,562.0 2,638.9
Exit multiple 5.11 5.11 5.11 5.11 5.11 5.11 5.11 5.11 5.11
Enterprise Value 12,612.7 11,985.7 11,746.0 11,746.0 11,980.9 12,340.3 12,710.5 13,091.8 13,484.6
Net debt 7,322.3 6,135.0 4,970.9 3,782.9 2,542.5 1,225.8 - - -
Pensions funds and other liabilities - - - - - - - - -
Equity Value 5,290 5,851 6,775 7,963 9,438 11,114 12,711 13,092 13,485
Investment Returns (€000) 30/10/2008 30/10/2009 30/10/2010 30/10/2011 30/10/2012 30/10/2013 30/10/2014 30/10/2015 30/10/2016 30/10/2017
Fund's Share (%) 60%
Investment date 30/10/2012
Initial investment 3000
Market value 3,174 3,510 4,065 4,778 5,663 6,669 7,626 7,855 8,091
Cash Flows - 3,000 - - - 4,778 - - - - -
Expected IRR 12.3%
Return multiple 1.6
152
See 2.2.5. iii. The waterfall
153
The cash flow of the acquisition of the limited partnership interest comes from the tab “Command table”. It
is calculated as if seeking to value the total fund given that it is later multiplied by the percentage of the
interest that we wish to value. Here 5%
III. Valuation in the Private Equity secondary market - 103 -
Table 18: Determination of the returns of the secondary investor according to the acquisition price
Date 31/05/2010 31/05/2011 31/05/2012 31/05/2013 31/05/2014 31/05/2015 31/05/2016 31/05/2017 - - -
Table 19: Determination of the price to be paid according to scenarios and returns
Price willing to pay (for 100% fund) 4,000 Does investment at this price reache target?
Implied price for LP interest 200 Target IRR 20.0% YES
Implied IRR 20.04% Target Multiple return 1.8 YES
Implied Multiple Returns 2.15
Command
Scenario (Growth assumptions & Exit multiple) Base 2 Investment holding period (Years) 4
Unfunded Multiple
Quality of the GP (trackrecord, info available) Good 1 Good 1.7
Multiple of return (x) for unfunded 1.7 Base 1.4
Bad 1.2
In this case, a base scenario (of growth and valuation of the portfolio companies) and a high-
quality management team have been chosen.
According to present growth assumptions and the timing of capital calls and distributions
applied, the valuation of the fund that allows achieving an IRR of 20% with a multiple higher
than 1.8 times (typical minimum gross returns that secondary investors seek) is €4,000,000.
This values the analysed interest (5%) at €200,000 and represents 36.8% of its last NAV.
The model also analyses the sensitivity of the investment returns to the different key
variables used in this valuation (growth scenario, quality of the manager, and timing of the
investment).
III. Valuation in the Private Equity secondary market - 107 -
Scenario (IRR) 0.20 3,700 3,800 3,900 4,000 4,100 4,200 4,300
Upside 1 23.4% 23.2% 23.0% 22.9% 22.7% 22.5% 22.4%
Base 2 20.5% 20.4% 20.2% 20.0% 19.9% 19.7% 19.6%
Downside 3 16.0% 15.8% 15.7% 15.6% 15.4% 15.3% 15.2%
Scenario (Returns) 2.15 3,700 3,800 3,900 4,000 4,100 4,200 4,300
Upside 1 2.29 2.28 2.27 2.26 2.25 2.24 2.23
Base 2 2.18 2.17 2.16 2.15 2.14 2.13 2.12
Downside 3 1.94 1.94 1.93 1.92 1.91 1.91 1.90
Quality of the GP 0.20 3,700 3,800 3,900 4,000 4,100 4,200 4,300
Good 1 20.5% 20.4% 20.2% 20.0% 19.9% 19.7% 19.6%
Base 2 17.0% 16.8% 16.7% 16.5% 16.4% 16.2% 16.1%
Bad 3 14.9% 14.7% 14.6% 14.5% 14.3% 14.2% 14.1%
Investment holding period (Years) 0.20 3,700 3,800 3,900 4,000 4,100 4,200 4,300
3 3 28.9% 28.6% 28.4% 28.1% 27.9% 27.6% 27.4%
4 4 20.5% 20.4% 20.2% 20.0% 19.9% 19.7% 19.6%
5 5 16.9% 16.8% 16.7% 16.5% 16.4% 16.3% 16.2%
6 6 14.8% 14.7% 14.6% 14.5% 14.4% 14.4% 14.3%
By applying the two valuation methods to the same limited partnership interest we
find very different results. The market valuation method (top-down) values the interest at
86.4% of its NAV, although the bottom-up valuation method using the valuation model
values it at 36.8% of its NAV.
In view of these results, it seems clear that valuation method is very important when buying
(or selling) in the secondary market. But, why is there such a difference between the two
methods and which is more trustworthy?
take into account the singularity of each asset and therefore does not constitute an accurate
valuation method. The only method capable of valuing the intrinsic value of the assets is the
bottom-up method that takes into account all the characteristics of the fund and its
underlying assets.
The following table clearly demonstrates that the assets’ value cannot be generalised given
that for a single type of asset there are significant variations in the valuation according to the
asset being exchanged.
% of bids on
funds Bids ≤0% of the NAV Bids <20% of the NAV Bids >60% of the NAV
All 7% 17% 13%
LBOs 8% 20% 12%
Venture 4% 17% 13%
Other 5% 5% 21%
Source: Author’s own using data from Cogent Partners; «Secondary Pricing analysis interim update, summer
2009»; 2009.
155
Cogent Partners; «Pricing private equity secondary transactions» 22 July 2002; www.AltAssets.com (last
accessed: 26 January 2010)
III. Valuation in the Private Equity secondary market - 110 -
60
50
40 18.5
(9.1)
30
50.8
20 41.4
10
0
Dry powder at the Secondary transaction 2009 secondary Dry powder at the
beginning of 2009 volume in 2009 fundraising beginning of 2010
Source: Author’s own; data: Dry powder and secondary transactions 2009: UBS Private Funds Group; «Adams
Street Secondary Networking Event»; 2010 – Secondary funds raised in 2009: Preqin; «Private Equity Spotlight
January 2010»; 2010.
Compared to the offerings of some $75 billion, the dry powder of the secondary funds in
2010 is about $50.8 billion. There is therefore an imbalance of some $25 billion that provides
a clear advantage to the buyers, creating a buyers’ market.
However, in view of the forecasts for 2010, it is interesting to compare this same $75 billion
of offerings with the dry powder that is expected in 2011.
156
Probitas Partners; «Adams Street Secondary Networking Event»; 2010
III. Valuation in the Private Equity secondary market - 111 -
Figure 47: Estimate of the dry powder in the secondary market in 2011 ($ billions)
60
50
27
40 (20)
30 57.8
50.8
20
10
0
Dry powder at the 2010 Estimated 2010 Estimated Dry powder at the
beggining of 2010 transaction volume secondary fundraising beginning of 2011
Source: Author’s own; data: Dry powder and secondary transactions 2010: Author’s own estimates – Secondary
funds raised in 2010: Probitas Partners; «Adams Street Secondary Networking Event»; 2010.
If we assume that the transaction volume will be about $20 billion (forecast with the model
assuming the base scenario) and that secondary funds raise about $27 billion in 2010
(estimate by Campbell Lutyens157 and Probitas Partners158), it is forecast that dry powder at
the beginning of 2011 will be about $57.8 billion. This represents a $17.2 billion imbalance in
the market. Therefore it is clear that the imbalance in the market will slowly be reduced. The
reduction of this imbalance will gradually end the buyers’ advantage in the market159. A
buyers’ market may change even more rapidly if transaction volume in 2010 is lower than
forecast.
However, due to the imbalance in the secondary market, valuations are distorted from the
real value of the assets and therefore cannot be used to provide an accurate value of an
asset in the secondary market: the inefficiency of the top-down method is once more
demonstrated.
157
See appendix 7.13 which summarises the call to Campbell Lutyens (10 March 2010)
158
Probitas Partners; «Adams Street Secondary Networking Event»; 2010
159
See appendix 7.13 which summarises the call to Campbell Lutyens (10 March 2010)
III. Valuation in the Private Equity secondary market - 112 -
CONCLUSIONS
IV. Conclusions - 114 -
IV. CONCLUSIONS
1. Conclusions
Although 69% of investors hoped that 2009 would be a record year in the secondary
market162, the transaction volume ($9.1 billion in 2009163) has been disappointing due to
160
Campbell Lutyens; «The Private Equity Secondaries market: a complete guide to its structure transaction
and performance»; PEIbooks, 2008
161
Ansbacher, Richard I. and Rosh, Kenneth I. and Neuschatz Zelenka, Rebecca; «Heightened Managers
Concerns for Secondary Transfers»; Fried Frank PEP Talk, 2010
162
Dow Jones; «Guide to secondary market intermediaries»; 2009
163
UBS Private Funds Group; «Adams Street Secondary Networking Event»; 2010
IV. Conclusions - 115 -
market circumstances (low valuations, large bid/offer spread, FAS 157, lack of visibility).
However, it seems that 2010 will be the record year that participants in the market have
longed for to prove that it is not a current trend, nor an ephemeral market.
According to the results of the application of the present statistical correlation model, it is
projected that the market may have an average volume of between $17.5 and $22.5 billion
per annum during the next five years (2010-2014) which represents a compound average
growth rate (CAGR) of between 13% and 18.8%.
Regulated financial institutions will be the main sellers in 2010 due to the need to repay
public funds and restructure their balance sheet. Moreover, the cost of financing Private
Equity assets, the need to liquidate “pay to play” funds combined with an increase in
secondary valuations will promote activity in the market.
The market is becoming increasingly sophisticated and innovative sales structures are
used to better realize all parties’ objectives. This market sophistication is reflected in the
growing importance in the use of an adviser experienced in secondary transactions. In the
medium term it is forecast that there will be more spin-outs164 of captive Private Equity
managers of financial institutions. But there will also be more direct sales of interests in
companies165 as current market conditions necessitates their use to generate valuable
liquidity for managers.
In 2010, regulatory changes will be a key element that will have to be monitored. In the
US the famous “Volcker Rule” limits banks’ proprietary investments and will have a major
impact on Private Equity activity. Although there is a transition period to comply with this
rule many financial institutions are considering selling their Private Equity investment
divisions and holdings. Any change that increases regulatory pressure on financial
institutions’ investments will have a direct effect on the sale of their Private Equity assets in
the secondary market and the spin-out of several captive Private Equity managers.
164
Probitas Partners; «Adams Street Secondary Networking Event»; 2010
165
Probitas Partners; «Adams Street Secondary Networking Event»; 2010
IV. Conclusions - 116 -
After having fallen to 36% of the NAV in the first half of 2009 the market has rebounded.
During the first half of 2010, pricing for limited partnership interests in the secondary market
increased steadily to 80%166 of NAV anticipating an increase in the valuations of LP interests.
However, valuations are expected to halt their increase in the medium term due to the
supply/demand imbalance that acts as a natural ceiling167.
Although we are currently in a buyers’ market due to the supply/demand imbalance its
evolution must be tracked closely. Indeed, this imbalance may be reduced due to volumes
being raised in secondary funds and the large amount of dry powder accumulated by
secondary buyers (“There are a lot of secondary buyers that have a lot to deploy”168 Jeffrey
Bollerman; SecondMarket).
According to a survey by Probitas Partners published in November 2009, 16.4% of investors
fear there is too much dry powder in the secondary market and that it will have a negative
impact on returns169.
When valuing LPs’ interests in the secondary market, the bottom-up method is the most
appropriate method to ascertain the intrinsic value of the assets. This method, which is
based on analysis and valuation of the underlying assets, allows the investor to produce an
informed valuation and gives him a clear advantage. If he has the resources, experience and
necessary information, he may have more confidence in his valuation and be more
aggressive in his bid because he has a greater chance of achieving his returns170. However,
the top-down method is a good method to approximate valuations and the mood of the
market in the absence of information required for the bottom-up method.
In this context access to information becomes a significant challenge in order to be able to
make a bottom-up valuation and highlights the importance of having strong relationships
with GPs. For this reason successful secondary managers usually have primary capacities
that allow them to have relationships with GPs and get access to the necessary information.
166
See appendix 7.13, which summarises the call to Campbell Lutyens (10 March 2010); Cogent Partners;
«Secondary pricing trends and analysis, July 2010»; 2010
167
Probitas Partners; «Adams Street Secondary Networking Event»; 2010
168
Deal Flow Media; «The Distressed Debt Report, Volume VI Nº4»; 2010
169
Probitas Partners ; «Private Equity Market Review and Institutional Investor Survey»; 2009
170
Clark, Geoffrey and Christopher Kojima; «Opportunities and challenges in Secondaries»; Goldman Sachs in
The Journal of Alternative Investment, 74-86; 2003
IV. Conclusions - 117 -
2. Future research
Being an initial analysis of this segment of Private Equity, some suggestions for future
research are in order.
This dissertation has discussed throughout the Private Equity secondary market but it would
also be useful to study other secondary markets such as those of hedge funds or assets
invested in debt (syndicated loans, private placements, etc.).
In studying the Private Equity industry the funds’ cost structures were examined and this
brought up the tensions currently experienced between GPs and LPs the most significant
being fees. There have been many concerns raised with respect to GP compensation and it
would be interesting to analyse the debate in the context of future fundraising.
Glossary - 118 -
GLOSSARY
Blind pool: investment commitments with no stated investment target. In Private Equity the
unfunded commitment is a blind pool given that the managers’ exact future investments are
unknown.
Bottom-up: information-processing strategy that begins by analysing the individual parts in
order to then analyse larger components. Applied to asset valuation, it consists of analysing
the underlying assets in order to then value the fund.
Capital calls: request from fund managers to draw down a part of the committed capital to
fund an acquisition or funds’ costs.
Carried interest (“Carried”): the share of profits of the fund managers in the capital gains
resulting from the operations carried out by the fund. In Private Equity funds the "carried" is
usually about 20% of the capital gains obtained by the fund.
Cash drag: negative effect caused by cash balances (or money invested in treasury assets) on
the overall return of a portfolio.
Catch up: part of the carried interest that the manager receives once the principal and a
hurdle rate has been paid to LPs. The manager typically receives 100% of the distributions up
to a shareout of the distributions defined by the carried interest (20/80).
ۍ ې
ێେୟ୰୰୧ୣୢ ୧୬୲ୣ୰ୣୱ୲ ୰ୟ୲ୣ ۑ
Catch up = Total hurdle × ێ ୌ୳୰ୢ୪ୣ ୰ୟ୲ୣ ൙ଵିେୟ୰୰୧ୣୢ ୧୬୲ୣ୰ୣୱ୲ ୰ୟ୲ୣۑ
ێ ۑ
ێ ୌ୳୰ୢ୪ୣ ୰ୟ୲ୣ ۑ
ۏ ے
Clawback provision: clause in the LPA by which the GP can require the LPs to return some
distributions in special circumstances.
Collateralized Fund Obligation (CFO): debt securitization of Private Equity fund or hedge
fund assets.
Covenants: agreements between a company and its creditors that indicate the financial
conditions that the debtor must observe.
Credit crunch: squeeze in the availability of credit that causes the economy to contract.
Deal flow: flow of transactions.
Glossary - 119 -
Denominator effect: in a portfolio when the value of one asset class falls, the percentage
allocation to other assets rises mechanically in the portfolio, exceeding the allocation targets
of the portfolio which then requires re-balancing.
Distressed: an asset or an investor that lacks liquidity to finance short-term commitments.
Dry powder: capital reserves available to invest.
Due diligence: process of auditing financial, legal and tax aspects of a transaction.
EBIT: earnings before interests and taxes. Operating profit.
EBITDA: earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation.
Endowment: institution’s investments that seek to cover a part or all the needs of the
institution to which it belongs with its investment returns.
Equity: part of the company that belongs to the shareholders once they have paid their
financial obligations. Asset minus liabilities.
Fair value: amount or value for which an asset may be exchanged between interested and
fully-informed parties.
Family office: a company that offers advisory services to family assets.
Follow-on: is said of an investment when it backs an existing investment.
Funding ratio: ratio of capital funded by investors to the total commitment of investors in
the fund.
Fundraising: activity that consists of raising funds in the market.
General Partners (GPs): Private Equity fund managers.
Hurdle rate: also called preferred return, is the minimum amount of return sought by the
investor. It is usually an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 8%. Before this return is earned by
the LP, the fund manager can not receive any share in the capital gains.
Internal Revenue Service (IRS): tax authority in USA.
Key man clause: clause within an agreement that indicates if one or more specific key
named managers stops dedicating a required level of time to the management of a fund, the
investment activity is halted.
Know Your Customer (KYC): due diligence requirement that financial institutions must
perform to identify their client and ascertain relevant information in order to transact
financial business with them. This policy is intended to prevent money laundering and
terrorist financing.
Glossary - 120 -
Lag: a delay caused in a communication. In the case of Private Equity funds, the lag refers to
the delay between the publication of the NAV and the current asset valuation (between 1
and 4 months) that makes the valuation process more difficult.
Limited Partners (LPs): institutions or individuals that contribute capital to a Private Equity
fund.
Limited Partnership Agreement (LPA): formation agreement which sets out in detail legally
binding relations between the LPs and GP (investment policy, profit sharing, fees and
expenses, etc.).
Lock-in performance: process that consists of realizing the existing return on an asset (by
hedging, selling the asset).
Material Adverse Change (MAC): in a sale contract it is a legal provision that allows the
acquirer to withdraw from the transaction if the target suffers a substantial change.
Over-commitment: allocation of resources to an asset class in excess of the capacity.
Pay-to-play funds: funds which the banks had invested as a way to get business with the
Private Equity funds (advisory mandate, leverage) but that have never been a strategic asset.
Pre-emption right: right of first refusal.
Qualified Matching Service: approved management services for secondary transactions by
the tax authorities. The use of a QMS allows exchanging an additional 8% above the
statutory 2% of a fund’s capital commitment in a single fiscal year.
Representations and warranties: statements by which one party gives certain assurances to
the other, and on which the other party may rely.
Right of First Refusal (ROFR): right that gives its holder the option to enter a transaction
with the owner of an asset before the owner can enter into that transaction with a third
party.
Seniority: order of repayment in the event of bankruptcy. In the capital structure, this refers
to the subordination level. When one is more senior it means that it is less subordinated.
Side letter: separate agreement that is used to clarify or modify the terms of a previous
agreement.
Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV): legal entity created to fulfil a temporary and specific
objective. It may be owned by one or more persons.
Spin-out: when a division of a company becomes an independent business. In the secondary
market it is a sale structure in which the buyer acquires an entire portfolio of captive assets.
Stapled secondary: sale structure in which the buyer acquires assets of a fund together with
investment commitments in the next fund of the manager (GP).
Glossary - 121 -
Straight sale: traditional sale structure of one or more interests in funds or companies.
Strip sale: sale structure in which only a part of one or more portfolio companies or interest
in funds are sold.
Tail end: sale structure in which a fund sells its remaining assets.
Top-down: information-processing strategy that analyses the system as a whole without
going into subsystem details. Applied to asset valuation, it consists of analysing market
valuations and applying them to the asset being valued.
Total Return Swap: derivative contract in which two parties swap the cash flows. A floating
interest rate can be exchanged for the cash flows of an asset.
Track record: past performance. In the case of a fund manager, it refers to the past returns
of previously managed funds.
Unfunded: uncalled part of the committed capital.
Venture Capital (VC): Private Equity investment style that invests in the early stages of
companies.
Vintage year: the year in which the fund makes its first investment.
Waterfall: structure of how distributions are shared between the GPs and the LPs. It is
defined in the LPA.
REFERENCES
References - 123 -
REFERENCES
1. Books
- Ascoli, Edward. «Modeling midnight manual.» Adkins Matchett & Toy, 2007.
- Campbell Lutyens. «The Private Equity Secondaries market: a complete guide to its
structure operation and performance.» PEIbooks, 2008.
- Copeland, Thomas E. y Weston, J. Fred. «Financial Theory and Corporate Policy.» forth
edition, Pearson Education, 2005.
- Dow Jones. «Guide to Secondary Market Buyers.» 2009.
- Dow Jones. «Guide to Secondary Market Intermediaries.» 2009.
- EVCJ. «Cover story: Secondary investors.» p.40-49. 2003.
- Gómez-Acebo & Pombo abogados y ASCRI. «Capital riesgo (Private Equity) aspectos
regulatorios, mercantiles, financieros, fiscales y laborales.» 2006.
- IPEV. «International Private Equity and Venture Capital Valuation Guidelines.» 2009.
- Kosman, Josh. «The Buyout of America.» p.129. Penguin, 2009.
- Maehrle, Harald. «Special "Secondary transactions".» p.5-9, VentureCapital Magazin,
2009.
- Richard A. Brealey, Stewart C. Myers, Franklin Allen. «Principles of Corporate Finance.»
Ninth edition. Mc Graw Hill, 2008.
2. Reports
- Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld. «Role of the secondaries market and LP trends.» 2009.
- Amundi Asset Management. «Les attraits du marché secondaire pour les investisseurs en
Private Equity.» 2010.
References - 124 -
- Sao-Wei Lee, Alex. «Private Equity Secondary Funds and their Competitive Strategies.»
INSEAD, 2003.
- Scalar Partners. «Private Equity secondaries report- 1st Quarter 2010.» 2010.
- Slaughter and May. «Securitization and Private Equity.» 2004.
- The Boston Consulting Group, Inc.; IESE. « Driving the shakeout in private equity: The
role of investors in the industry’s renaissance.» 2009.
- Triago. «Secondaries: Toward a new liquidity paradigm for the private equity
community.» 2005.
- Triago. «Secondary whitepaper: accessing the Private Equity secondary market.» 2010.
- Triago. «The Secondary Seller's Options.» 2009.
- Triago. «The Triago Quarterly.» June 2010.
- Triago. «The Triago Quarterly.» October 2010.
- Tuck School of Business - Center for Private Equity and Entrepreneurship. «Note on
limited partnership agreements.» 2003.
- UBS Private Funds Group. «Adams Street Secondary Networking Event.» 2010.
- UBS Private Funds Group. «Private Equity Secondary Market review.» 2009.
- UBS Private Funds Group. «Secondary capabilities» (Pitchbook), 2009.
- UBS Private Funds Group. «Secondary Market Update.» July 2010.
- Unigestion. «Unigestion Secondary Opportunity II.» 2009. www.unigestion.com (last
accessed: 20 January 2010).
- Watson Wyatt. «Secondary Market in Private Equity.» 2009.
- Wilmer Cutler Pickering hale and Dorr LLP. «Trends in the Private Equity Secondary
Market.» 2009.
3. Articles
- VCFA Group. «Secondary sales of private equity interests.» AltAssets. 18 February 2002.
www.AltAssets.com (last accessed: 14 January 2010).
- Weil, Gotshal & Manges. «Secondary investing in private equity funds: Primary issues for
general partners.» 28 January 2004. www.AltAssets.com (last accessed: 06 February
2010).
- Wharton Knowledge. «Private Equity Secondary Funds: Are They Players or Opportunistic
Investors?» 09 August 2009.
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/ (last accessed: 20 December 2009).
4. Databases
- Preqin
- Private Equity Analyst
- Venture Expert
- Thomson financial
APPENDIX
Appendix - 131 -
APPENDIX171
2.3 Database of firms investing part of their funds in the secondary market
A.U.M ($m) dedicated to
Company secondaries Name Position Mail Comments
Portfolio Advisors LLC 1,100 Paul R. Crotty Managing Director pcrotty@portad.com
Stepstone Group 800 Tom Keck Chief Investment Officer tkeck@stepstonellc.com
SL Capital Partners 340 Patrick Knetchi Investment Director patrick_knetchi@standardlife.com
Altamar 244 José Luis Molina Partner jmolina@altamarcapital.com
Key Capital Corp 250 Bart Shirley Managing Director bshirley@kppinvest.com
VenCap International 250 Tim Cruttenden Director tim.cruttenden@vencap.com
Venture Investment Associates 250 Cliff Gilman Managing Director cgilman@viafunds.com
Wilshire Private Markets Group 237 Amanda Ulczynski Associate aulczynski@wilshire.com
Thomas Weisel Asset Management 200 Clifford Meijer Managing Partner cmeijer@tweisel.com
Northen Trust Corp 200 Brad Dorchinecz Vice President bmd3@ntrs.com
AGF Private equity 147 Christophe Simon Investment Manager christophe.simon@agfpe.com
Kensigton Capital Partners 100 Tom Kennedy Managing Director tkennedy@kcpl.ca
Fort Washington Capital Partners 85 Stephen Baker Managing Director steve.baker@fortwashington.com
Altius Associates 75 Garth Troxell Partner gartht@altius-associates.com
Montagu Newhall Associates 75 Ashton Newhall General Partner ashton@montagunewhall.com
LLM Capital Partners 73 Frederick Moseley Managing Director rmoseley@llmcapital.com Only directs
Abbott Capital Management 72 Charles van Horne Managing Director cvanhorne@abbottcapital.com
Paragon Partners 61 Edin Hadzic Managing Partner eh@paragon-partners.de Only directs
Access Capital Partners Philippe Poggioli Managing Partner ppoggioli@accesscp.com
ACP Investment Group trading@acptrs.com
Aldius Capital Saul Meyer Managing Partner info@aldusequity.com.
Allianz Private Equity Partners Claus Zellner Managing Director claus.zellner@apep.com
Alpha Associates AG Peter Derendinger CEO peter.derendinger@alpha-associates.ch
Amundi Private Equity Funds Richard Dalaud Manager richard.dalaud@amundi.com
Appendix - 141 -
4. Newsletter nº1
Appendix - 145 -
Appendix - 146 -
1. UBS Private funds Group Adviser Stéphane Vojetta Executive director stephane.vojetta@ubs.com IBD Team
Nicolas Lanel Executive director nicolas.lanel@ubs.com Call on 19th January 2010. Meeting 3rd March 2010 at 14:00
Francesca Paveri Analyst francesca.paveri@ubs.com Meeting 3rd March 2010 at 14:00
Conf call on 26th Nov. 2009 15H00 UK Time. Other call
made in December. Call on 19th January 2010. Call on 8th
Jasmine Hunet Analyst jasmine.hunet@ubs.com March 2010. Model and sale structures comments
2. Arcano Capital Buyer Vanessa Campion Analyst vcampion@arcano.es Meeting on 18th March 2010 18:00
Steve Sceery Vice President ssceery@arcano.es Meeting on 18th March 2010 18:00
Ricardo Miró-Quesada Associate rmiro@arcano.es Meeting on 18th March 2010 18:00
4. Breslin AG Adviser David Karabelnik CEO karabelnik@breslin.ch Call on Wednesday 02nd Dec. 2009 at 10:00 AM
5. Headway Capital Partners Buyer Christiaan de Lint Founder and partner christiaan@headwaycap.com Call Wednesday 9th Dec. 2009 17:00
8. Altamar Buyer José Luis Molina Principal jmolina@altamarcapital.com Meeting Monday 07 Dec. 2009 17:00
Ignacio de la Mora Senior Associate idelamora@altamarcapital.com Meeting Monday 07 Dec. 2009 17:00. Model comments
9. Pantheon Ventures Buyer Francesco Di Valmarana Principal Call on Wednesday 09th Dec. 2009 13:00 UK Time
Arantxa Prado Senior Associate aprado@pantheonventures.com Call on Wednesday 09th Dec. 2009 13:00 UK Time
10. Secondmarket Marketplace Jeffrey C. Bollerman Director LP interest jbollerman@secondmarket.com Call Tuesday 01st Dec. 2009 at 21:30
11. SJberwin Legal adviser Isabel Rodriguez Partner isabel.rodriguez@sjberwin.com Meeting on Monday 14th Dec, 2009 17:30
Roberto Pomares Botana Partner roberto.pomares@sjberwin.com Meeting on Monday 14th Dec. 2009 17:30
12. Lexington Partners Buyer José Sosa del Valle Senior Associate jsosadelvalle@lexpartners.com Call on 15th and 20th of January 2010
13. HarbourVest Partners Buyer Peter Wilson Managing Director pwilson@harbourvest.com Call on 9th March 2010, 14:00 UK time
Appendix - 147 -
6. Meeting guidelines
Meeting guidelines
1) Presentation:
a) The project: Thesis, Model, sponsors.
b) Company profile: Leading buyer on the secondary market, AUM, targeted assets
(size, funding ratio), funds, last closed operations, sourcing of transactions.
2) Market insight:
a) Could you send me historic data of primary and secondary fundraising?
b) What was the transaction volume on the market from 2000 to 2009?
c) Correlation between primary fundraising and secondary transaction volume
(turnover rate, average age of funds sold)?
d) How do you see the future of the market? (Tightening of the Bid/Offer spread,
Growth, correlation between primary and Secondary PE market)
e) Nowadays who are the main sellers on the market? And what is their main reason to
sell?
f) What about the pricing? (Current and outlook)
g) Could you describe a classic transaction process? Obama bank project: Citi deal
($10bn on the sec. market), potential buyers. Will JP Morgan sell its PE unit? $8bn?
Will it occur this year? Goldman will give up bank status? Other banks plan to sell
h) Which advisers do you work with?
i) What are the typical fees of advisers on the market?
4) Valuation Issues:
a) Could you describe your valuation method of this asset class? (Bottom-up/Top-
down?) Multiples.
b) What are the returns and IRR you are looking for?
c) How do you project the unfunded commitment? (In order to project cash flows)
Appendix - 148 -
5) Legal issues:
a) What are the legal issues when considering buying/selling a LP stake? (pre-emption
rights, indemnifications…)
b) Does a GP have a right to veto the transfer of a limited partnership interest in a fund?
This part contains the summary of the various meetings, calls that have allowed me to
gain much information of this study. These summaries are in chronological order. Three
other investment funds shared their thoughts with me but asked to remain anonymous. All
errors are mine.
1. Pricing / Valuation
All depends on each buyer’s cost of capital, but when modelling, we generally assume that a
typical secondary buyer looks for a 1.8x-2.0x return multiple and a 20%+ IRR. These target
returns are adjusted when modelling non vanilla sale structures which have different risk
profiles.
You need to project the future capital calls/distributions profile for your portfolio. The
profile mainly depends on (i) remaining unfunded to be called, expected return on NAV and
expected return on unfunded (ii) timing of capital calls & distributions.
Historical returns data sourced from the “VentureXpert” database can be used to project
return multiple and timing.
The return multiple assigned to the unfunded part of a commitment mainly depends on the
overall economic outlook, quality of the GP (track record, team stability …) as well as on the
expected use of the unfunded (new investments vs. follow-on investments…).
Appendix - 150 -
2. Structuring Alternatives
Different sale structures can be used to sell a portfolio of LP interests:
- Straight sale: Plain vanilla sale. In current market conditions, discounts are still
substantial (approx.: 30/40% discount) for average quality buyout funds
- Joint-Venture Sale, used to minimize discount. The assets are placed into an SPV owned
by seller and buyer. The distribution waterfall is then negotiated (and is often
asymmetric)
- Seller financing: The seller finances part of the price paid by the buyer via a loan of (for
example approx. 30% of the price). You can add a mechanism of “revolver” to cover
capital calls as well.
- Listing of the Portfolio. Not used today because of market conditions
- Securitization. Not used today either.
Appendix - 151 -
Content:
1. Company Profile
Secondmarket is the largest independent marketplace and auction platform for
illiquid assets with over 4,000 participants and height asset class traded on its online
platform.
They do not provide advisory on any of those transactions and can offer a low cost
intermediary service. Instead of all Investment Banks and Boutiques, Secondmarket
positions itself as a fast growing company on a low-cost model based only on intermediary
services. It employs 100 people.
The main reason to sell is to rebalance the portfolio because of change in the strategy, poor
results, denominator effect… Also many sellers are in distressed situation.
For him the unfunded is the major determinant of the pricing. Also quality of GPs and of
underlying assets are other determinants.
Fees depends on the sale proceeds, they are generally around 3%. If the transaction price is
too low to cover fixed cost of the platform, then other fees are added.
Appendix - 153 -
Content:
- It is a New Market: The PE secondary market is all new. Since 2002/2003, the market
exploded with much more deals and fund raised. Nowadays it is considered as an
established market but because of the wide spread between Bid and offer it remains
inefficient.
- It is a Private Market: Agents working on this market do not want it to become
public. It is a secret market; people do not want their assets to be known as on sale.
Confidentiality is a key for success on the market. That is why agents always sign
CDAs (Confidential Disclosure Agreements).
In 2003, after the bubble crisis, the Private Equity secondary market began to grow because
of concerns from banks to go out from this asset class. At this time Dresdner sold a portfolio
of VC and PE assets (mainly to Axa and Harbourvest).
Mr Karabelnik then brought part of the Dresdner team to Breslin AG and they began working
on secondary transactions with a focus on buyers in 2004.
They quickly realized fees where much better working for sellers. That is why in 2005, they
began going out on the market and look for sellers.
Their clients include many big companies such as Bayer, Henkel, Roche…
Appendix - 154 -
In those big companies the realisation of transactions is easier because they are not so much
price-sensitive and accept discounts of the market.
Breslin is an intermediary and an adviser on the market more focused on Venture Capital.
Valuation advices are mainly based on the current discount to NAV of the market.
3. Market insight:
The gap between bid and offer is likely to tighten because of the amount of money on the
market. Buyers are sitting on large amounts of money and are likely to invest it revising their
pricing. For example Mr Karabelnik during a process did not accept a bid from a fund and 6
months later the bidder came back with a revised and more acceptable price for the same
asset.
Mostly transactions led by Mr Karabelnik are likely to realize between 6 weeks and one year.
When Breslin goes on the market to find asset for sale he contacts 50 potential sellers, get
10 closest conversations and finally sign an exclusive agreement with 3 to 4 sellers. They get
c.5-10% of the potential sellers.
Content:
Secondly, we have created a confidential network whereby sellers of fund interests can
come anonymously to the service and submit fund interests for indicative valuations, both
from Preqin’s algorithmic model and from third party buyers subscribed to our service. A
buyer can submit a rough price indication and make initial contact with the seller but any
transaction is not completed through Preqin’s service. It is completed between the buyer
and seller externally.
b. Competitors
Other participants in the market are Secondmarket, Investor
Investor Flow and some other
online trading platforms (often initially set up for the trading of hedge fund interests) which
have begun to look at adding private equity fund interests to the assets they trade.
However, as far as I know, we are the only service toto offer free pricing indications. NYPPEX
acts as our exclusive pricing partner and guarantee to provide price indications to anyone
that submits a portfolio for third party price indications. We do not provide advice on the
secondary market. Rather, we provide
pro information and data.
We feel that while this method cannot be substituted for a thorough due diligence of the
fund’s underlying assets, it does give a good general indication of the fund interest’s
approximate worth on the secondary market and we have received lots of good feedback
regarding the accuracy of the indications. I’m unable to go into any more depth with an
explanation of the model, unfortunately.
3. Market insight:
The research report which will be released next week freely on the website will cover
this point.
a. Reasons to sell:
I would say there are two types of reasons for selling fund interests: a) liquidity
requirements b) strategic purposes.
Endowments: ‘a closed box’, with no income and they often employ an over commitment
strategy. A decrease in distributions from fund investments has therefore hit them
particularly hard.
Banks: Banks tend to enter and leave the PE market in cycles. For example, one secondaries
manager has purchased portfolios from the same bank 3 times over the past 15 years. In
order to generate liquidity, banks have been keen to offload illiquid assets including private
equity fund interests. Furthermore, many banks were initially attracted to the private equity
market by the opportunity to provide finance in the form of leveraged buyout deals.
However, the financial turmoil of 2008 rendered them unable to fulfil the role of financier,
prompting many to reduce their exposure to an asset class that never did form a core part of
their investment strategies.
Listed FOFs: another closed box until they issue additional securities. Again, they employ an
over commitment strategy and have probably borrowed too much. They’re a good indication
for the volume of selling we should expect and their selling activity is generally well-
documented as a result of their public status.
Appendix - 157 -
2. Valuation issues
In general the GP do not release enough information in its financial reports to value
each underlying asset.
In this case, the valuation process is to make a market valuation. Depending on the Funding
ratio of the fund, the market discount of same vintage funds is used. The market discount is
then applied to the NAV of the fund provided by the GP. The lowest the funding ratio, the
lowest the price because investors do not like backing managers they do not know.
In the case of enough financial information available,
a a bottom-up
up valuation is done valuing
underlying assets. A new NAV is estimated and depending on the capital call/distribution
profile of the fund, cash flows are discounted at the targeted IRR and the NPV is the price
the buyer is willing to pay.. A sensitivity analysis is done on growth assumptions of underlying
assets and Capital Call/distribution profile.
4. Legal issues:
It mainly depends in which jurisdiction the fund belongs to. It also depends if the
fund is an FCR or a limited Partnership.
Partnership
Appendix - 158 -
Basically pre-emption rights and remaining liabilities of previous LPs are issues considered
during secondary transactions.
The GP do have a veto right on a secondary transaction of a LP stake in its fund.
A Limited Partnership does not have to pay tax, but the limited partners pay it. It means
there is no double taxation on income. In order to be considered as a Limited Partnership,
you have to prove that your fund is illiquid and not traded on a public place. That is why a
Limited Partnership can’t transfer more than 2% of committed capital each fiscal year
whether it will be considered as a Public traded partnership (and taxation also) by the IRS.
However, by using a qualified service (defined by the IRS) on the secondary market, a fund
can add 8% on the previous percentage of transferable assets.
Appendix - 159 -
Content:
Recently they opened a new fund dedicated to secondary operations. This fund only invests
in funds Altamar already invested in on the primary market. They use to invest in early
secondary (50/60% funded) looking for 2x returns.
2. Market insight
The size of the secondary market is really difficult to determine, however it seems
that the volume of transaction was c. $16 bn. in 2008 and c. $4 bn. in H1 2009. For Mr
Molina, no clear correlation exists between the primary Private Equity market and secondary
transactions because each market relies on different drivers.
Main reasons of selling were distressed situations and the denominator effect. Today the
denominator is no longer a reason because boards voted to lift threshold of the Private
Equity allocation and also because large pension funds forced GPs to write-down their NAV.
Today sellers are mostly listed fund of funds (because of over commitment strategy and high
leveragebreaching of covenants) and family offices (mainly distressed sellers).
They believe the tightening of the bid/offer spread will happen when the visibility and
macroeconomic conditions will better.
It is a market similar to the Real Estate one because it is a buyer market where agents are
looking to buy quality assets and where sellers are mostly distressed and have to sell with a
discount to the real price of those assets in the future.
Appendix - 160 -
3. Valuation issues
In order to value this asset class, a simple market valuation (applying a discount on
the GP’s NAV) is not a good method. A bottom-up valuation has to be performed in order to
value underlying assets. Underlying is valued via EBITDA multiples; it is not possible to do it
via a DCF method because we need to approach the value of the assets in the time.
A new NAV is estimated and depending on the capital call/distribution profile of the fund,
cash flows are discounted at the targeted IRR and return. The NPV is the price the buyer is
willing to pay. A sensitivity analysis is done on growth assumptions of underlying assets and
exit timing.
The cash is not an issue because it is always an insignificant part of the fund and usually the
final price paid for the asset is corrected by the existing cash.
4. Legal issues:
Two most important legal issues:
- Existing legal agreement of the fund: not applicable for Altamar because they only
invest in funds where they already invested in primary.
- The Share Purchase Agreement (SPA)
Particular attention has to be paid if remaining LPs have pre-emption rights (ex:
Blackstone).
Also fiscal issues have to be considered, for example, when buying in the US, if you want to
benefit from the local tax treatment you have to buy a resident vehicle.
5. Structuring of operations:
Altamar only buy assets via straight sale. Structures where the buyer and the seller
share the economics (like JV) are not used because of the risk of bankruptcy. Also for fiscal
reasons because an FCR cannot invest in a structured note; they have to invest in Private
Equity funds if they want to keep their tax treatment.
6. Modelling:
Mr de la Mora reviewed the valuation model. Discussions were on the following
elements:
- Growth assumptions
- Cash flow for debt repayment
- Waterfall
- Management fees/Carried
Appendix - 161 -
Content:
Pantheon has been a pioneer on the Private Equity secondary market beginning its activities
on this market in 1988. Today Pantheon is the fourth biggest player by assets dedicated to
this market. On the secondary market they mainly invest (85%) in funds where they already
participate in the primary. They use to invest in late secondary (60/70/80% funded).
2. Market insight
The size of the secondary market is really difficult to determine, however it seems that
the volume of transaction (Purchase Price + Unfunded) was c. $23,5 bn. in 2008 and c. $5,5
bn. in H1 2009. In 2010 the market is likely to be much more important than in 2009.
Transaction volume should be approx. $30 bn.
Quoted investment trusts give a good proxy for valuation, in 2006-2007, a 5 to 15% premium
to NAV was paid. Pricing on the secondary Private Equity market was very similar. Today
listed investment trusts show a reduction in the discount to NAV, which should be likely to
tighten the gap between the bid and offer on the secondary market.
Players mainly sell on the secondary market for three different reasons:
- Cash flow distressed: It can be every players but it is mainly the case for family
offices.
- Balance sheet issues: Risk capital allocation. Regulation. Banks and insurance
companies.
- Portfolio allocation: Rebalance portfolio, change strategy. Pension funds, insurance
companies and endowments.
Appendix - 162 -
There are two types of classic transaction process depending on where the deal is sourced:
• Deal sourced via an intermediary: The transaction process last mainly 3 months.
- Intermediaries come up with a list of assets and their characteristics
- If the buyer is interested by an asset he makes an initial bid: 1month
- More information is given to the different parties who have to make a final bid:
1month
- Closing of the deal: Legal (SPA,…) 1 month.
• Deal sourced by Pantheon: Same steps as the previous process but is usually a lot
more complicated and longer (can last years).
Typically adviser fees are c.1 to 2% of NAV + Unfunded depending on the size of the
transaction.
3. Structure of transactions
Pantheon mainly buys assets agreeing on a price with differed payments. They have
also used other different structures using SPV and sharing the economics where the
counterparty risk is carefully assessed. Generally deal structures are proposed and accorded
with the seller.
4. Valuation issues
In order to value this asset class, a bottom-up valuation is performed to value the
underlying. Underlying is valued via multiples; it is not possible to do it via a DCF method
because we need to approach the value of the assets in the time.
A new NAV is estimated and depending on the capital call/distribution profile of the fund,
cash flows are discounted at the targeted IRR (20/25% for Pantheon) and return (1,8x to 2x
for Pantheon). The NPV is the price the buyer is willing to pay. A sensitivity analysis is done
on growth assumptions of underlying assets and exit timing.
- The part which will be used to back existing investments: This part is projected as per
returns expected of each investment in existing business.
- The capital for new transactions: On this part the return applied is usually bigger.
The cash is not an issue because it is always an insignificant part of the fund however it is
included in the model.
For Pantheon, as a late secondary buyer, the main component of the value of a secondary
asset is the quality of the underlying. For an early secondary the main component would be
the funding ratio.
5. Legal issues:
- Indemnities: In case a GP sold an asset and need to call back distribution.
- Fiscal issues: Tax situation of the vendor, buyer and underlying assets.
- Composition and agreements in the investor base
Appendix - 163 -
In the US, the 2% transfer law is applicable to limited partnerships and 8% can be added to
this percentage if the transaction is advised by a Qualified Matching Service (QMS) defined
by the fiscal authorities.
Appendix - 164 -
Content:
2. Market insight
For Mr de Lint a correlation exists between the primary and the secondary market of
around 3 to 5%. However it is difficult to determine its future.
Sellers are cyclical; before it was corporations, then banks and today it is everybody.
Reasons are also changing in the time; before people were selling for portfolio management,
today people are selling for distressed reasons.
3. Valuation issues
In order to value this asset class, a bottom-up valuation is performed to value the
underlying. A new NAV is estimated and depending on the capital call/distribution profile of
the fund, cash flows are discounted at the targeted IRR and return (which for Headway are
similar to a primary Private Equity fund). A sensitivity analysis is done on growth
assumptions of underlying assets and exit timing.
The valuation of the unfunded depends on the quality and the reliability of the GP:
- If the GP has a good track record and is likely to make good investments then the
unfunded is not taken into account.
- If the GP is not that good then the unfunded is projected at an inferior return to the
target one in order to penalise the value for the risk taken.
Appendix - 165 -
Content:
On the Private Equity secondary market it advises on the sale or restructuring of portfolios of
Private Equity fund or direct investments. They recently closed the sale of the European VC
portfolio of 3i and the restructuring and refinancing (c.€200m) of APEN, a listed vehicle
previously affiliated with AIG.
2. Market insight
The size of the secondary market is really difficult to determine, however it seems
that the volume of transaction (Purchase Price + Unfunded) was c. $14/15 bn. in 2008 and
will be around $5/6 bn. in 2009 (apart from sales of single interests). In 2010 the market is
likely to be much more important than in 2009.
The Bid/Ask spread is already tightening but its evolution in the near future will depend on
macroeconomic developments and on the change in NAVs (How GPs mark their investment).
Nowadays the average discount for a portfolio of buyout funds is ca. 20/30%, and can even
be closer to NAV in certain cases.
In 2010 sellers will mainly be Banks and endowments. Indeed, many banks are now focusing
on their core business (and are likely to divest non-core activities) and seeking liquidity (for
instance to repay government’s loans). Endowments should mainly be affected because of
their overcommitment strategy to Private Equity and the denominator effect (Public markets
dropped more than Private Equity NAV).
- Liquidity concern
- Over-commitment strategy
- Denominator effect
- Change of strategy / Exit of non-core activities
3. Transaction Process
All transactions are unique but most transactions can be divided in 4/5 phases:
1. Preparation Phase: Adviser’s due diligence and preparation of the data room
2. Marketing Phase: An NDA (Non Disclosure Agreement) is signed with each investors
to enable them to access the data room. Investors then review the information
contained in the data room and submit an indicative offer for the assets.
3. Due Diligence Phase: A short list of investors is made and the short-listed investors
get access to more information on the data room so they can refine their due
diligence and submit a binding offer.
4. Negotiation and Closing Phase: The preferred party(-ies) enters in exclusive SPA
negotiations with the seller until the document is signed.
5. (Funds transfer)
Typically adviser fees are c.1,5 to 3,5% of NAV + Unfunded depending on the size and
complexity of the transaction.
4. Structure of transactions
Straight sales are used but also different structures using SPV and sharing the
economics. Economic-swap agreements (in which the legal ownership and economics of the
assets are decoupled) or Top slicing (in which an investor buys a part of each of the vendor’s
LP interests) are also used.
5. Valuation issues
In order to value this asset class, a bottom-up valuation is performed to value the
underlying assets. A secondary price is calculated, which depends on the level of undrawn of
the fund, future cash flows are discounted at the targeted IRR (depending of buyers’ cost of
capital, and target IRR marketed to their own investors) to achieve the target MM return
(typically between 1,8x to 2x).
When more visibility on the future use of cash flows is available, the unfunded component
can be separated and valued in two parts:
- The part which will be used to back existing investments: This part is projected as per
returns expected of each investment in existing business.
- The capital for new transactions: On this part the return depends on how the GP
plans to invest it.
Quoted investment vehicles can be used as a proxy to secondary market pricing, bearing in
mind the following caveats:
Appendix - 167 -
- the NAV of a listed vehicle is based on the underlying NAV of the underlying assets
available at the time of reporting (e.g. usually NAV from the previous quarter)
- the share price of listed investment vehicles can be distorted by the lack of liquidity
in the shares and/or the structure of the vehicle itself (such as use of leverage,
overcommitment strategy…).
The value of a secondary asset is mainly driven by its underlying assets: trading activity
(growth outlook), economic environment (entry multiples…), manager’s experience and
reputation, exit market (M&A and IPO); but also by the unfunded part (depending on the
access to investment plans of the GP and on the quality of GPs) and the exit timing.
Appendix - 168 -
Content:
2. Market insight
They advise on transactions of LP interests but also on synthetic transactions where
the GP is selling a part or an entire portfolio.
The Spanish Private Equity market is really a small market (Biggest fund: Magnum Capital
€850m), secondary operations are reduced and players mainly sell for distressed reasons.
GPs also sell because of poor performance in their portfolio.
Reason to sell is mainly because of distressed situation; however for GPs it can also be to sell
a non performing asset/portfolio. Nowadays for a straight sale, discounts are c.25% of NAV.
3. Legal issues
Basically in a transaction process, lawyers have two major roles:
GPs generally have a right to veto the transfer but they generally do not use it. Indeed they
more often help the LP to find an investor for its interest in order to reduce the risk of a
default in their fund.
In the case of a synthetic sale, GPs usually do not give much representation (Reps) or
warranties to the buyer because they want to get rid of sold investments.
In their opinion, the IAFM proposal is not likely to become a law because of the importance
of other markets (US and emergent ones).
Legal advisers usually work about 30/50 hours on a straight sale of LP interest. For a
synthetic sale they work c.500/1000 hours.
Appendix - 170 -
Content:
UBS PFG is the advisory group in charge of raising private equity funds from
institutional investors worldwide and is advising on the secondary sale or restructuring of
portfolios of direct or fund investments.
The secondary advisory team is composed of 22 professionals across London and New York.
It was founded 6 years ago in New York by Nigel Dawn.
The Secondary advisory team focuses primarily on large or structured transactions and has
pioneered a number of innovative solutions to maximise value or achieve sellers objectives.
The team competes primarily with Campbell Lutyens in Europe and Cogent Partners in the
US.
2. Market insight
Dry powder:
According to UBS estimates $45bn of dry powder was available to buyers at the beginning
of 2010.
2009 transaction volumes decreased to app. $9bn from a peak in 2008 of $20bn.
UBS estimates that volumes should bounce back to in excess of $20bn, driven by the
resurgence of large portfolio deals.
As the economic outlook further improves and capital calls resume, liquidity pressure will
rise again on certain over-committed investors. This, combined with sustained regulatory
pressure on banks will drive deal flow which will be facilitated by rising valuations supported
by rising public markets and underlying NAV’s. However, as deal flow reaches record levels,
sellers’ ability to drive deal terms will be eroded by human resource limitations at buyers
who will have to carefully elect where to deploy their limited human capital.
Volcker Rule:
Mr Lanel does not think that the Volcker Rule will lead to a sudden wave of transactions
by banks given the time horizon which has been granted to them to transaction out of
restricted areas. However, regulatory pressure imposed by Basel II had already put things in
motion for banks to dispose of non-core assets in particular in PE and a number of legacy
“pay to play” programmes have already been sold down.
3. Valuation issues
Listed Investment trusts:
Listed investment trusts have provided a good proxy for the secondary markets until
recently where they have failed to ‘catch up’ with the marked reduction in discounts.
Expected returns:
During the crisis, returns targeted by buyers went up because of the lack of visibility and
the associated risk. Nowadays, it went back to ‘normalized’ levels of 15 to 20% IRR and app.
1.8x return for LP portfolios and app. 25% and in excess of 2x for ‘secondary directs’.
Appendix - 172 -
Content:
2. Market insight
2009 secondary transaction volume: $6-8bn was transacted in 2009 on the secondary
market which represents a 25% decline from previous year.
Correlation between the primary and the secondary market: Historically, +/-3 to 4% of
primary fund commitments are exchanged in the secondary market after an average 4 to
5 years. Considering historical data Mr Wilson also see an increase in the percentage of
exchanged commitment as per last years.
The Bid/Ask spread is tightening; current discount trend is about 20% to NAV on the
market and should remain similar this year because of the constant perceived risk in the
market.
Market imbalance: The secondary market is still a buyer market. The dry powder should
be around $20bn in dedicated secondary capital and c. $35-40bn is potentially available
on an opportunistic basis. This total $55-60bn of dry powder which will be invested on
average in the next 4 years should be compared with a potential transaction volume of
about $100bn in the next 4 years which clearly evidences an imbalance on the market
The Volcker Rule: Mr Wilson does not think this project will be translated in a similar law.
It should not urge banks to sell their PE division/assets. However, the trend clearly
Appendix - 173 -
indicates that regulated financial institutions have to watch carefully if they want to keep
those assets because of its cost of capital and regulatory concerns (Basel II).
3. Valuation issues
In order to value this asset class, a bottom-up valuation is performed to value the
underlying assets. They never use a market valuation method (applying the existing discount
of asset class and vintage year to the fund’s NAV).
Listed Investment trusts: Listed investment trusts do not reflect an accurate trend of the
secondary market. Indeed, the market value of these assets is distorted by market effects
and used leverage.
Expected returns: Returns depend on the type of assets (LP portfolio/Direct deal).
However as a general rule, they are looking to generate mid twentieth IRR and c. 2x
multiple.
Appendix - 174 -
Content:
As the placement agent activity was dramatically reduced in late 2008/2009, many
placement agents have tried to develop a secondary advisory practice, in an attempt to
offset their declining fundraising revenues.
2. Market insight
Nowadays the average discount for a mid-quality portfolio of buyout funds is ca.
10/20% and can be closer to NAV in certain cases (best quality funds); certain funds even
trade at a premium.
“core” and are likely to divest all or part of their holdings. Additionally, the recovery of
secondary market pricing could accelerate/reinforce this trend.
In terms of volume of transactions, we estimate that there will be ca. $20bn of transactions
per year over the next 3 years, which is consistent with the current dry powder available for
secondaries (up to $60bn, if secondary fundraisings are on target) and a historical average
deployment period of 3 years.
Appendix - 176 -
Content:
1. Arcano company profile
The Arcano group, founded in 2003 is an independent company with three divisions:
I) Corporate Finance Advisory, (II) Alternative Investment Management, (III) Multi-family
Office Advisory.
Arcano Capital is a Private Equity fund of funds manager. They currently have assets under
management of approx. € 800 m. invested globally. Its funds have a capacity to invest up to
20% of the committed capital in secondary transactions.
3. Market insight
NAV levels:
Last quarter the general trend of NAV surge 15% mainly due to the increase in EBITDA
and valuation multiples of portfolio companies.
Appendix - 177 -
Primary fundraising
Primary fundraising in 2009 did not meet expectations. 2010 is expected to improve
although it is also expected to be a difficult year in terms of fundraising.
Opportunistic buyers such as mainly primary fund of funds represent a big part of the
secondary market volume. However this part of the secondary volume is difficult to value
because of the size of deal and of their opportunistic condition.
By applying a discount to the traditional allocation of fund of funds (c. 20%) to the secondary
market on the total dry powder of mainly primary fund of funds, we could get a good proxy
to the money they can dedicate to this market.
Appendix - 178 -
Selected data 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.5 1 0.579 0.71 1.494 2.35 3.09
Source: Author’s own
Appendix - 179 -
In $bn
Source 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Inside the growing market for VC 8
Dow Jones Guide to sec Market 10/15
Permal capital Mangement 6.5 7 6.5 8 11 14
UBS (presentations) 8 12 15 20 9.1
Carta Diem (Lexington Estimates) 2.1 1.9 5 6.9
PE Magazine (PE Analyst) 5 7 6.7 10 18
PEI Manager (Cogent/Capital Dynamics) 6.5 7 6.5 12 13.5 20
Triago 2.1 2.8 7 7.7 7.5 10 13 14.5
Dow Jones Guide to sec Market Buyers 2.278 2.092 6.904 8.38 7.468 10.268 13.35 16.116
Capital Dynamics 4 5.1 11 17 18 17
Green Park Cap 1.9 15
Campbell Lutyens (Mail Mr Marencic) 6
Lexington Partners (Distressed debt report) 8.8
HarbourVest Partners (Mr Wilson call) 6/8
Cogent Partners (Cogent and VentureXpert) 2.1 1.9 5 7 6.7 10 18 30 6/7
Selected data 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2.278 2.092 6.904 8.38 7.468 10.268 13.35 16.116 9.1
Source: Author’s own
Appendix - 180 -
Selected data 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Carta Diem/Partners Group/Preqin 21.1 13.9 17.4 17.8 33.3 38.6 49.5 80.5 117.2 132.7
In $bn
Source 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Partners Group 250 140 70 80 120 255 370 455 375 200
Permal Capital Management 265 155 75 85 125 250 340 395 255
Carta Diem (Fuente Private Equity Analyst) 243 167.8 91.8 82.3 126.7
Preqin 250 190 146 135 206 344 535 644 629 246
JP Morgan AM (Thomson Reuters; VentureXpert) 333 244 175 133 183 334 449 585 636 221
Selected data 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Carta Diem/Partners Group/Preqin 250 140 70 80 120 255 370 455 375 246
Data: Thomson Reuters; AVCJ; EVCA; Asia Private Equity; NVCA; Dow Jones PE Analyst; Preqin (2009)
Source: Author’s own
Appendix - 182 -
3. Historical turnover
Probability 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1990 0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 20% 10% 5% 0% 0%
1991 0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 20% 10% 5% 0% 0%
1992 0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 20% 10% 5% 0% 0%
1993 0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 20% 10% 5% 0% 0%
1994 0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 20% 10% 5% 0% 0%
1995 0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 20% 10% 5% 0% 0%
1996 0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 20% 10% 5% 0% 0%
1997 0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 20% 10% 5% 0% 0%
1998 0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 20% 10% 5% 0% 0%
1999 0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 20% 10% 5% 0% 0%
2000 0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 20% 10% 5% 0% 0%
2001 0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 20% 10% 5% 0%
2002 0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 20% 10% 5%
2003 0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 20% 10%
2004 0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 20%
2005 0% 5% 10% 20% 30%
2006 0% 5% 10% 20%
2007 0% 5% 10%
2008 0% 5%
2009 0%
Appendix - 183 -
Total Potential - 1 3 6 12 15 19 24 33 45 61 89 117 141 156 139 121 133 177 250
Effective Secondary transactions 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.5 1 0.579 0.71 1.494 2.35 3.09 2.278 2.092 6.904 8.38 7.468 10.268 13.35 16.116 9.1
Effective Turnover rate 6.5% 3.1% 2.9% 4.6% 5.3% 5.0% 2.6% 1.8% 4.9% 5.4% 5.4% 8.5% 10.1% 9.1% 3.6%
Weighted average turnover rate from 1995-2002 3.38%
Weighted average turnover rate from 1995-09 5.60%
Weighted average turnover rate from 2003-09 6.41%
Weighted average turnover rate from 2003-08 7.20%
Source: Author’s own
Appendix - 184 -
Projections
Assuming constant fundraising in 2010E/2011E/2012E as of 2009 246
Projections
Years 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
Downside case (5.6%) 5.60% 7.5 10.3 13.4 16.1 9.1 14.0 17.9 19.8 19.0 16.7
Average 17.5
Base case (6.4%) 6.41% 7.5 10.3 13.4 16.1 9.1 16.0 20.4 22.7 21.7 19.1
Average 20.0
Upside case (7.2%) 7.20% 7.5 10.3 13.4 16.1 9.1 18.0 23.0 25.5 24.4 21.5
Average 22.5
Source: Author’s own
Appendix - 186 -
120%
110%
100%
Average
90%
High
80% Average
70% Median
60% Average
50% Low
40%
30%
20%
2005 2006 2007 H108 H208 H1 09 H2 09 H1 10
Source: Author’s own based on data from Cogent Partners pricing analysis (2007-2008-2009-2010).
110%
100%
90% Average
high
80%
Average
70%
median
60%
Average low
50%
40%
30%
2005 2006 2007 H108 H208 H1 09 H2 09
Source: Author’s own based on data from Cogent Partners pricing analysis (2007-2008-2009).
Appendix - 187 -
110%
100%
90% Average
high
80%
Average
70%
median
60%
Average
50% low
40%
30%
2005 2006 2007 H108 H208 H1 09 H2 09
Source: Author’s own based on data from Cogent Partners pricing analysis (2007-2008-2009).
Appendix - 188 -
11.2 Structure of listed indirect Private Equity fund (listed fund of funds)