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FY 2006-07
Project Progress Update
Summary
2
Crude prices recovered marginally
60 • Renewed geopolitical
55 tension; Actions of Iran
WTI Brent Dubai
50
45 • Lower product
40 inventories in US
35
30
• OPEC cuts
Q4 2004
Q1 2005
Q2 2005
Q3 2005
Q4 2005
Q1 2006
Q2 2006
Q3 2006
Q4 2006
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
• Colder weather & high
implied demand
¾ Sluggish Fuel Oil demand growth due to shift to cleaner Natural Gas
Lower margins in 2006 attributable to higher stock levels, benign storm season and
slow growth in demand on the back of high oil prices
4
Singapore Margins : Simple vs. Complex
Complex margins delta to simple margins (US$ 5.7/ bbl for 2006 and US$ 5.6/ bbl for
Q1 07), very strong in recent times
5
The year ahead…
CDU capacity additions at 1 MMBD - Lower than expected demand and supportive for margins.
US Gasoline lifts up the complex; margins may soften from current levels unless there is some
serious disruptions. Another rally may happen during hurricane season.
Demand side
¾ Medium term world GDP growth pegged higher-than-historical but lower than 2006
¾ Demand growth during 2007-2009 at 5 MMBD vs. Annual growth of 1 MMBD during ‘93-'03
¾ While heating oil demand may fluctuate with winter expectations, diesel demand is largely a
function of road / rail freight and, as such, a function of the economy.
Supply side
¾ Project delays and construction bottlenecks push major capacity additions beyond 2011
¾ Conversion capacity additions over the next 2 – 3 years much above historical; However,
still expected to lag demand growth
7
Incremental capacity and refinery utilisation
Conversion capacity additions expected to make fuel oil less weak from current levels
9
Trade Flows
10
Summary – Refinery Business Environment
Geopolitical concerns and limited Non OPEC growth to support oil prices
¾ Longer hauls
13
Contents
Summary
14
Summary of Project Progress
• Concreting activities nearing its peak; focus shifting towards piping work
Over 70% of structural steel drawings completed; Focus now shifting on release of
16
Procurement progress update
Procurement and contracting activities nearly completed
Over 300 equipments, including several critical and long lead items, delivered at site
Focus shifted towards underground laying, piping erection and equipment front generation
• Surpassed earlier record of 168,555 cu.m created by RPL in Dec’06 and 154,000 cu.m created
Nearly 40,000 tonnes of structural steel fabrication and about 34,000 tonnes of tankage
Coker EW Piperack
30
Snapshot of project progress
Summary
34
Project implementation summary
Expected
Months from
Milestone Completion Current Status
Zero Date
Date
Start of the Project/Zero Date 01-Dec-05 Started
Technology Selection/Project Scope Jan-06 1 Completed
Completion of Basic Engineering May-06 6 Completed
Order placement for critical
May-06 6 Completed
equipment
Completion of Detailed Engineering Sep-07 22 Ongoing
Completion of Civil work Nov-07 24 Progressing
Started
Completion of Equipment Erection Jan-08 26
Mechanical Completion Aug-08 33
Ready for Start Up (RFSU) All areas Sep-08 34
Commencement of operations Dec-08 36