Components of future payroll tax base for 3-county Metro region of Oregon

sources: BLS for past CPI, Metro for future CPI, Metro and state OEA for working-age population growth, TriMet for payrol

bunched into average rat

CPI-U working-age pop growth 5-year cpi avg implied real wage growt

Year state metro state

1995 3.00% 3.00% 2.60% 2.32% 3.37%
1996 2.80% 3.00% 2.60% 2.32% 3.37%
1997 2.20% 3.00% 2.60% 2.32% 3.37%
1998 1.60% 3.00% 2.60% 2.32% 3.37%
1999 2.00% 3.00% 2.60% 2.32% 3.37%
2000 3.70% 1.92% 1.50% 2.62% -1.98%
2001 3.20% 1.92% 1.50% 2.62% -1.98%
2002 1.10% 1.92% 1.50% 2.62% -1.98%
2003 1.90% 1.92% 1.50% 2.62% -1.98%
2004 3.20% 1.92% 1.50% 2.62% -1.98%
2005 2.50% 1.65% 1.90% 2.58% -1.22%
2006 4.20% 1.65% 1.90% 2.58% -1.22%
2007 2.60% 1.65% 1.90% 2.58% -1.22%
2008 4.90% 1.65% 1.90% 2.58% -1.22%
2009 -1.30% 1.65% 1.90% 2.58% -1.22%
2010 1.10% 0.94% 1.80% 1.90% 1.60%
2011 2.40% 0.94% 1.80% 1.90% 1.60%
2012 2.00% 0.94% 1.80% 1.90% 1.60%
2013 2.00% 0.94% 1.80% 1.90% 1.60%
2014 2.00% 0.94% 1.80% 1.90% 1.60%
2015 2.00% 0.83% 1.20% 2.00% 1.61%
2016 2.00% 0.83% 1.20% 2.00% 1.61%
2017 2.00% 0.83% 1.20% 2.00% 1.61%
2018 2.00% 0.83% 1.20% 2.00% 1.61%
2019 2.00% 0.83% 1.20% 2.00% 1.61%
2020 2.00% 0.80% 1.00% 2.00% 1.64%
2021 2.00% 0.80% 1.00% 2.00% 1.64%
2022 2.00% 0.80% 1.00% 2.00% 1.64%
2023 2.00% 0.80% 1.00% 2.00% 1.64%
2024 2.00% 0.80% 1.00% 2.00% 1.64%
2025 2.00% 0.94% 0.90% 2.00% 1.50%
2026 2.00% 0.94% 0.90% 2.00% 1.50%
2027 2.00% 0.94% 0.90% 2.00% 1.50%
2028 2.00% 0.94% 0.90% 2.00% 1.50%
2029 2.00% 0.94% 0.90% 2.00% 1.50%
2030 2.00% 0.98% 0.90% 2.00% 1.46%
2031 2.00% 0.98% 0.90% 2.00% 1.46%
2032 2.00% 0.98% 0.90% 2.00% 1.46%
2033 2.00% 0.98% 0.90% 2.00% 1.46%
2034 2.00% 0.98% 0.90% 2.00% 1.46%
2035 2.00% 0.98% 0.90% 2.00% 1.46%
2036 2.00% 0.98% 0.90% 2.00% 1.46%
2037 2.00% 0.98% 0.90% 2.00% 1.46%
2038 2.00% 0.98% 0.90% 2.00% 1.46%
2039 2.00% 0.98% 0.90% 2.00% 1.46%
2040 2.00% 0.98% 2.00% 1.46%
on growth, TriMet for payroll tax base growth projection and current payroll tax revenue

bunched into average rates over 5-year intervals

implied real wage growth underlying payroll tax growth

metro TriMet assumption if wages grow at 1995-2010 average

3.77% 8.94%
3.77% 8.94%
3.77% 8.94%
3.77% 8.94%
3.77% 8.94%
-1.57% 2.52%
-1.57% 2.52%
-1.57% 2.52%
-1.57% 2.52%
-1.57% 2.52%
-1.46% 3.00%
-1.46% 3.00%
-1.46% 3.00%
-1.46% 3.00%
-1.46% 3.00%
0.74% 4.50% 3.99%
0.74% 4.50% 3.99%
0.74% 4.50% 3.99%
0.74% 4.50% 3.99%
0.74% 4.50% 3.99%
1.24% 4.50% 3.48%
1.24% 4.50% 3.48%
1.24% 4.50% 3.48%
1.24% 4.50% 3.48%
1.24% 4.50% 3.48%
1.44% 4.50% 3.28%
1.44% 4.50% 3.28%
1.44% 4.50% 3.28%
1.44% 4.50% 3.28%
1.44% 4.50% 3.28%
1.54% 4.50% 3.18%
1.54% 4.50% 3.18%
1.54% 4.50% 3.18%
1.54% 4.50% 3.18%
1.54% 4.50% 3.18%
1.54% 4.50% 3.18%
1.54% 4.50% 3.18%
1.54% 4.50% 3.18%
1.54% 4.50% 3.18%
1.54% 4.50% 3.18%
1.54% 4.50% 3.18%
1.54% 4.50% 3.18%
1.54% 4.50% 3.18%
1.54% 4.50% 3.18%
1.54% 4.50% 3.18%
4.50%
anticipated payroll tax rate future payroll tax revenue ($millions)
TriMet cumulati
assumpti if wages grow at annual ve
gradual increase until 2024 on 1995-2010 average disparity disparity

0.006818 195 195 $0 $0

0.006918 $207 $206 $1 $1
0.007018 $219 $217 $2 $3
0.007118 $232 $229 $3 $6
0.007218 $246 $241 $5 $11
0.007318 $261 $253 $8 $19
0.007418 $276 $266 $11 $29
0.007518 $293 $279 $14 $43
0.007618 $310 $292 $18 $61
0.007718 $328 $306 $22 $83
0.007818 $347 $321 $27 $109
0.007918 $368 $335 $32 $142
0.008018 $389 $351 $38 $180
0.008118 $411 $367 $45 $225
0.008218 $435 $383 $52 $277
0.008218 $455 $395 $59 $336
0.008218 $475 $408 $67 $403
0.008218 $497 $421 $76 $479
0.008218 $519 $434 $85 $564
0.008218 $542 $448 $94 $658
0.008218 $567 $462 $104 $763
0.008218 $592 $477 $115 $878
0.008218 $619 $492 $127 $1,005
0.008218 $647 $508 $139 $1,144
0.008218 $676 $524 $152 $1,296
0.008218 $706 $541 $166 $1,462
0.008218 $738 $558 $180 $1,642
0.008218 $771 $575 $196 $1,838
0.008218 $806 $594 $212 $2,051
0.008218 $842 $613 $230 $2,280
 annual average over following 5 years
Year implied real wage growth Working-age population Inflation
state metro state metro
1995 3.37% 3.77% 3.00% 2.60% 2.32%
2000 -1.98% -1.57% 1.92% 1.50% 2.62%
2005 -1.22% -1.46% 1.65% 1.90% 2.58%
2010 1.60% 0.74% 0.94% 1.80% 1.90%
2015 1.61% 1.24% 0.83% 1.20% 2.00%
2020 1.64% 1.44% 0.80% 1.00% 2.00%
2025 1.50% 1.54% 0.94% 0.90% 2.00%
2030 1.46% 1.54% 0.98% 0.90% 2.00%
2035 1.46% 1.54% 0.98% 0.90% 2.00%
2040 1.46% 0.98% 2.00%
eligible payroll taxes

8.94%
2.52%
3.00%
4.50%
4.50%
4.50%
4.50%
4.50%
4.50%
4.50%