Professional Documents
Culture Documents
reforestation projects
May-2010
Africa 500000 ha
Pieter Hoff
phoff@aquaproholland.com
+31 654 340 410
© Wout Hoff
NOTES
In the 'sensitivity analysis' the columns 'conservative' and 'optimistic' are not interactive. Only the column 'base' is interactive with 'input and o
values marked in blue are calculated automatically; do not amend these cells.
values marked in red are taken from the sheet 'Notes and Assumptions'; do not amend these cells.
Sheets
Front page Cover page
Notes and Assumptions Guidance note and regional assumptions for cost and employment calculation
Input and Output Overview of key project information (financials, planning)
Workings Financial model
Annex 1 - Timber prices Graphical presentation of development of timber prices over project duration
Annex 2 - Bushes harvest prices Graphical presentation of development of bushes harvest prices over project duration
Annex 3 - Carbon credit prices Graphical presentation of development of carbon credit prices over project duration
Annex 4 - FCF Graphical presentation of development of Free Cash Flow
Annex 5 - Plant scheme Graphical presentation of potential planting scheme for 1 ha
Annex 6 - Employment Graphical presentation of manpower needed during project lifetime
Model, calculations, values and assumptions have been validated by Forestry Service Group (www.forestryservicegroup.com)
Portfolio model
Start of planting
Project 1 2011
Project 1 2012
Project 2 2013
Project 3 2014
Project 4 2015
Project 5 2016
Project 6 2017
Project 7 2018
Project 8 2019
Project 9 2020
Project 10 2021
Number of projects 10
loyment calculation
er project duration
prices over project duration
ces over project duration
Investment
Ownership type of land freehold
Cost of land (if freehold) USD/ha 100
Land lease USD/ha/yr 0.10
Number of ha 50,000
Value of land at end of project USD/ha 2,500
Baseline study USD 125,000
Land preparation cost USD/ha 40
Custodial management cost USD/ha 80
Number of trees per ha 2,667
Number of trees planted 133,350,000
of which softwood % 80%
of which hardwood % 20%
Number of bushes per ha 1,333
Number of bushes planted 66,650,000
Number of m2 per tree/bush m2 2.5
Groasis waterbox ownership model lease
Groasis waterbox discount 10%
Groasis waterbox cost USD/box 2.75
Residual value of waterbox % 0%
Residual value of waterbox USD/box 0.00
Number of Groasis waterboxes needed 100,000,000
Planting material trees (sapling/nut/seed) USD/tree 0.20
Planting material bushes (sapling/nut/seed) USD/bush 0.25
Labour needed to plant 1 tree or bush minutes 5
Costprice labour USD/day 10
Costprice labour to plant 1 trees or bush USD/tree or bush 0.10
Energy cost for planting / removing USD/waterbox 0.01
Equipment cost per ha for planting / removing USD/ha 75
Total cost per tree USD/tree 0.33
Total cost per bush USD/bush 0.38
Total cost per ha for trees (trees + planting) USD/ha 888
Total cost per ha for bushes (bushes + planting) USD/ha 510
Carbon - Upfront admin costs (only if carbon = yes) USD 150,000
Carbon - Upfront verification costs (only if carbon = yes) USD 1,050,000
Tax
Corporate tax 20.0%
lifetime hr 695,628,760
average FTE/yr for 35 years FTE 12,422
Investment costs
Cost of land - freehold kUSD (5,000) (5,000)
Baseline study kUSD (132) (132)
Land preparation kUSD (2,114) (2,114)
Custodial management kUSD (4,228) (4,228)
Waterbox costs for trees kUSD (174,427) (174,427)
Waterbox costs for bushes kUSD (87,181) (87,181)
Planting costs trees kUSD (46,925) (46,925)
Planting costs bushes kUSD (26,976) (26,976)
Carbon - Upfront admin (only if CDM =kUSD
yes) (159) (159)
Carbon - Upfront control (only if CDM =
kUSD
yes) (1,110) (1,110)
O&M costs
Land lease - leasehold kUSD - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Overhead and management kUSD (78,750) (753) (796) (841) (889) (940) (994) (1,050) (1,110) (1,173) (1,240) (1,311) (1,386) (1,465) (1,548) (1,636) (1,730) (1,828) (1,933)
Custodial management kUSD (547,345) - (5,586) (5,905) (6,241) (6,597) (6,973) (7,370) (7,791) (8,235) (8,704) (9,200) (9,725) (10,279) (10,865) (11,484) (12,139) (12,831) (13,562)
Maintenance year 2-8 kUSD (92,926) - (11,172) (11,809) (12,482) (13,194) (13,946) (14,741) (15,581) - - - - - - - - - -
Maintenance from year 9 kUSD (500,882) - - - - - - - - (8,235) (8,704) (9,200) (9,725) (10,279) (10,865) (11,484) (12,139) (12,831) (13,562)
Removal of waterboxes kUSD (8,100) - (8,100) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Trees - first partial harvest kUSD (7,834) - - - - - - - - - (7,834) - - - - - - - -
Trees - second partial harvest kUSD (6,477) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Trees - third partial harvest kUSD (6,820) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Trees - final harvest kUSD (11,872) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Bushes - annual harvesting kUSD (2,648,063) - - - - (32,985) (34,865) (36,852) (38,953) (41,173) (43,520) (46,001) (48,623) (51,394) (54,324) (57,420) (60,693) (64,153) (67,809)
Unforeseen kUSD (78,181) (15) (513) (371) (392) (1,074) (1,136) (1,200) (1,269) (1,176) (1,400) (1,314) (1,389) (1,468) (1,552) (1,640) (1,734) (1,833) (1,937)
FSC - Admin in year before first harvestkUSD (41) - - - - - - - - (41) - - - - - - - - -
FSC - Project lifetime admin and controlkUSD
costs (985) - - - - - - - - - (17) (18) (19) (21) (22) (23) (24) (26) (27)
Carbon - Project lifetime admin costs (only
kUSDif CDM = yes)
(11,053) (106) (112) (118) (125) (132) (139) (147) (156) (165) (174) (184) (194) (206) (217) (230) (243) (257) (271)
Carbon - Project lifetime control costs kUSD
(only if CDM = yes)
(22,105) (211) (223) (236) (250) (264) (279) (295) (312) (329) (348) (368) (389) (411) (435) (459) (486) (513) (542)
Total O&M costs kUSD (4,021,435) (1,085) (26,503) (19,281) (20,380) (55,186) (58,332) (61,657) (65,171) (60,528) (71,942) (67,597) (71,450) (75,522) (79,827) (84,377) (89,187) (94,270) (99,644)
Income
Value of land kUSD 125,000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Waterboxes residual value kUSD - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Trees - first interim harvest kUSD 1,193,141 - - - - - - - - - 1,193,141 - - - - - - - -
Trees - second interim harvest kUSD 1,460,750 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Trees - third interim harvest kUSD 4,167,142 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Trees - final harvest kUSD 12,274,980 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Bushes - annual harvest kUSD 13,722,358 - - - - 159,167 168,860 179,144 190,054 201,628 213,907 226,934 240,755 255,417 270,971 287,474 304,981 323,554 343,259
Carbon credits income kUSD 150,058 - 1,764 1,852 1,945 2,042 2,144 2,251 2,364 2,482 2,606 2,737 2,873 3,017 3,168 3,326 3,493 3,667 3,851
Total income kUSD 33,093,430 - 1,764 1,852 1,945 161,209 171,005 181,395 192,418 204,110 1,409,655 229,671 243,628 258,434 274,139 290,800 308,473 327,221 347,109
Tax
Earnings before tax kUSD 13,263,120 (349,336) (24,739) (17,429) (18,435) 106,023 112,673 119,739 127,247 143,583 1,337,713 162,074 172,178 182,911 194,312 206,423 219,287 232,951 247,465
Tax loss carry forward kUSD (2,091,517) - (349,336) (374,075) (391,504) (409,939) (303,916) (191,243) (71,504) - - - - - - - - - -
Taxable income kUSD 11,171,602 (349,336) (374,075) (391,504) (409,939) (303,916) (191,243) (71,504) 55,743 143,583 1,337,713 162,074 172,178 182,911 194,312 206,423 219,287 232,951 247,465
Total Tax kUSD (2,652,624) - - - - - - - (11,149) (28,717) (267,543) (32,415) (34,436) (36,582) (38,862) (41,285) (43,857) (46,590) (49,493)
Free cash flow 10,610,496 (349,336) (24,739) (17,429) (18,435) 106,023 112,673 119,739 116,098 114,866 1,070,170 129,659 137,743 146,329 155,450 165,138 175,429 186,361 197,972
Discounted FCF 1,488,634 (317,578) (20,446) (13,094) (12,591) 65,832 63,601 61,445 54,161 48,715 412,597 45,445 43,889 42,386 40,935 39,533 38,179 36,870 35,607
Cumulative FCF (not discounted) 98,447,548 (349,336) (374,075) (391,504) (409,939) (303,916) (191,243) (71,504) 44,594 159,461 1,229,631 1,359,290 1,497,033 1,643,362 1,798,812 1,963,950 2,139,379 2,325,740 2,523,712
NPV 1,946,870
IRR 26.2%
Payback 7
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
(2,043) (2,159) (2,282) (2,412) (2,550) (2,695) (2,849) (3,011) (3,183) (3,364) (3,556) (3,759) (3,973) (4,199) (4,439) (4,692) (4,959)
(14,335) (15,152) (16,016) (16,929) (17,893) (18,913) (19,991) (21,131) (22,335) (23,609) (24,954) (26,377) (27,880) (29,469) (31,149) (32,925) (34,801)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
(14,335) (15,152) (16,016) (16,929) (17,893) (18,913) (19,991) (21,131) (22,335) (23,609) (24,954) (26,377) (27,880) (29,469) (31,149) (32,925) (34,801)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- (6,477) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - (6,820) - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (11,872)
(71,675) (75,760) (80,078) (84,643) (89,467) (94,567) (99,957) (105,655) (111,677) (118,043) (124,771) (131,883) (139,401) (147,346) (155,745) (164,623) (174,006)
(2,048) (2,294) (2,288) (2,418) (2,556) (2,702) (2,992) (3,019) (3,191) (3,372) (3,565) (3,768) (3,983) (4,210) (4,450) (4,703) (5,209)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
(29) (30) (32) (34) (36) (38) (40) (42) (45) (47) (50) (53) (56) (59) (62) (66) (70)
(287) (303) (320) (339) (358) (378) (400) (423) (447) (472) (499) (528) (558) (589) (623) (658) (696)
(573) (606) (641) (677) (716) (757) (800) (845) (893) (944) (998) (1,055) (1,115) (1,179) (1,246) (1,317) (1,392)
(105,324) (117,934) (117,673) (124,380) (131,470) (138,963) (153,841) (155,257) (164,106) (173,460) (183,348) (193,798) (204,845) (216,521) (228,863) (241,908) (267,807)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 125,000
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- 1,460,750 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - 4,167,142 - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 12,274,980
364,163 386,341 409,869 434,830 461,311 489,405 519,209 550,829 584,375 619,963 657,719 697,774 740,268 785,351 833,179 883,919 937,750
4,043 4,245 4,458 4,680 4,914 5,160 5,418 5,689 5,974 6,272 6,586 6,915 7,261 7,624 8,005 8,405 8,826
368,206 1,851,336 414,326 439,510 466,225 494,565 ### 556,518 590,348 626,235 664,305 704,689 747,529 792,975 841,184 892,324 ###
262,883 1,733,402 296,654 315,130 334,756 355,601 4,537,929 401,262 426,242 452,775 480,957 510,891 542,684 576,453 612,321 650,416 13,078,749
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
262,883 1,733,402 296,654 315,130 334,756 355,601 4,537,929 401,262 426,242 452,775 480,957 510,891 542,684 576,453 612,321 650,416 13,078,749
(52,577) (346,680) (59,331) (63,026) (66,951) (71,120) (907,586) (80,252) (85,248) (90,555) (96,191) (102,178) (108,537) (115,291) (122,464) (130,083) ###
210,306 1,386,721 237,323 252,104 267,804 284,481 ### 321,009 340,993 362,220 384,766 408,712 434,147 461,163 489,857 520,333 ###
34,387 206,127 32,070 30,970 29,908 28,882 335,066 26,934 26,010 25,118 24,255 23,423 22,619 21,842 21,092 20,367 372,316
2,734,018 4,120,739 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Tax loss carry forward kUSD (4,363,584) (349,336) (461,804) (591,701) (740,032) (782,341)
Taxable income kUSD ### (349,336) (461,804) (591,701) (740,032) (782,341) (711,976)
Total Tax kUSD (57,918,382) - - - - - -
Free cash flow kUSD ### (349,336) (112,468) (129,897) (148,332) (42,308) 70,365
Discounted FCF kUSD 14,390,464 (317,578) (92,949) (97,593) (101,312) (26,270) 39,719
Cumulative FCF (notkUSD
disc) ### (349,336) (461,804) (591,701) (740,032) (782,341) (711,976)
NPV ###
IRR 35.9%
Payback 8
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
119,739 127,247 143,583 1,337,713 162,074 172,178 182,911 194,312 206,423 219,287
112,673 119,739 127,247 143,583 1,337,713 162,074 172,178 182,911 194,312 206,423
106,023 112,673 119,739 127,247 143,583 1,337,713 162,074 172,178 182,911 194,312
(18,435) 106,023 112,673 119,739 127,247 143,583 1,337,713 162,074 172,178 182,911
(17,429) (18,435) 106,023 112,673 119,739 127,247 143,583 1,337,713 162,074 172,178
(24,739) (17,429) (18,435) 106,023 112,673 119,739 127,247 143,583 1,337,713 162,074
(87,729) (24,739) (17,429) (18,435) 106,023 112,673 119,739 127,247 143,583 1,337,713
- (87,729) (24,739) (17,429) (18,435) 106,023 112,673 119,739 127,247 143,583
- - (87,729) (24,739) (17,429) (18,435) 106,023 112,673 119,739 127,247
- - - (87,729) (24,739) (17,429) (18,435) 106,023 112,673 119,739
190,104 317,350 460,933 1,798,646 2,048,449 2,245,367 2,445,706 2,658,454 2,758,853 2,865,467
190,104 317,350 409,651 1,438,917 1,638,759 1,796,293 1,956,565 2,126,763 2,207,082 2,292,373
97,553 148,046 173,732 554,765 574,375 572,354 566,747 560,043 528,358 498,887
(521,872) (204,522) 205,129 1,644,046 3,282,805 5,079,099 7,035,664 9,162,427 ### ###
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
232,951 247,465 262,883 1,733,402 296,654 315,130 334,756 355,601 4,537,929 401,262
219,287 232,951 247,465 262,883 1,733,402 296,654 315,130 334,756 355,601 4,537,929
206,423 219,287 232,951 247,465 262,883 1,733,402 296,654 315,130 334,756 355,601
194,312 206,423 219,287 232,951 247,465 262,883 1,733,402 296,654 315,130 334,756
182,911 194,312 206,423 219,287 232,951 247,465 262,883 1,733,402 296,654 315,130
172,178 182,911 194,312 206,423 219,287 232,951 247,465 262,883 1,733,402 296,654
162,074 172,178 182,911 194,312 206,423 219,287 232,951 247,465 262,883 1,733,402
1,337,713 162,074 172,178 182,911 194,312 206,423 219,287 232,951 247,465 262,883
143,583 1,337,713 162,074 172,178 182,911 194,312 206,423 219,287 232,951 247,465
127,247 143,583 1,337,713 162,074 172,178 182,911 194,312 206,423 219,287 232,951
2,978,679 3,098,897 3,218,197 3,613,886 3,748,465 3,891,417 4,043,261 4,204,550 8,536,057 8,718,032
- - - - - - - - - -
2,978,679 3,098,897 3,218,197 3,613,886 3,748,465 3,891,417 4,043,261 4,204,550 8,536,057 8,718,032
(595,736) (619,779) (643,639) (722,777) (749,693) (778,283) (808,652) (840,910) ### ###
2,382,943 2,479,118 2,574,557 2,891,108 2,998,772 3,113,133 3,234,609 3,363,640 6,828,845 6,974,425
471,453 445,891 420,961 429,745 405,226 382,436 361,235 341,496 630,275 585,192
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046
- - - - - - - - - -
8,911,323 9,116,632 9,334,707 8,112,196 8,358,226 8,619,550 8,897,115 9,191,930 ### ###
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
7,129,058 7,293,306 7,467,765 6,489,756 6,686,581 6,895,640 7,117,692 7,353,544 ### ###
543,788 505,742 470,764 371,919 348,362 326,594 306,465 287,836 504,803 448,528
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 0
- - - -
- - - - - - - - - -
### - - - - - - - - -
650,416 ### - - - - - - - -
612,321 650,416 ### - - - - - - -
576,453 612,321 650,416 ### - - - - - -
542,684 576,453 612,321 650,416 ### - - - - -
510,891 542,684 576,453 612,321 650,416 ### - - - -
480,957 510,891 542,684 576,453 612,321 650,416 ### - - -
452,775 480,957 510,891 542,684 576,453 612,321 650,416 ### - -
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### 0 0
- - - - - - - - - -
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### - -
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
- - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - -
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
0 0
0 0
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
### ###
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
In the 'sensitivity analysis' the columns 'conservative' and 'optimistic' are not interactive. Only the column 'base case' is interactive with 'input and o
Base case: Assumes a project in Africa of 50,000 ha freehold land / leasing the waterbox.
505.00
405.00
Price (USD/m3)
305.00
205.00
105.00
5.00
25
35
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
27
29
31
33
37
39
41
43
45
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
hardwood timber price softwood timber price
(USD/m3) (USD/m3) Year
Price (USD/kg)
-
20
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
(USD/kg)
25
20
27
Year
bushes harvest price
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
Price (USD/credit)
-
20
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
11
20
14
20
17
20
20
20
23
(USD/credit)
20
Year
20
29
20
32
20
35
20
38
20
41
20
44
Cumulative FCF (kUSD)
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
-
5,000,000
(5,000,000)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
in 2019
2020
Break even
2021
2022
2023
2024
Row 62
2025
2026
Year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
Legend
2 trees, planted in 1 waterbox
2667 trees / ha
2 bushes, planted in 1 waterbox
1333 bushes / ha
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
Baseline study Land preparation Planting Overhead and
management
Custodial management Waterbox removal Maintenance - year 2-8 Maintenance - year 8
onwards
2,000
Harvesting of bushes Harvesting of trees Harvesting of trees Harvesting of trees
(fruit/nuts) (timber) - first interim (timber) - second interim (timber) - third interim
harvest harvest harvest
Harvesting of trees FSC - Admin and control Carbon - Admin,
- - final harvest
(timber) verification and control
17
25
27
33
35
41
43
11
13
15
19
21
23
29
31
37
39
45
Secondary employment
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
generated