FACT SHEET

1/14/11

Occupational Injuries & Illnesses versus Fatalities

The National Commission’s Report to the President on the BP Horizon spill, by

comparing an unsound statistical indicator (Fatality Rates) to a sound one (Injury and
Illness Rates), inevitably reached an incorrect conclusion:

“The United States has the highest reported rate of fatalities in offshore oil and gas
drilling among its international peers, but it has the lowest reporting of injuries. This
striking contrast suggests a significant underreporting of injuries in the US and
highlights the need for better data collection to ensure needed attention to worker
safety.”

Fatalities are rare events. They are so random that statistically they are not capable of
being used as indicators of performance. The U.S. accounts for roughly 50 to 60
percent of the total offshore E&P hours among industrial countries1. Statistically, that
means that the U.S. has a 50 to 60 percent chance of experiencing this event. Other
countries are much less likely to experience a fatality simply because they do not work
enough E&P offshore hours. When another country does experience a fatality (e.g.
Australia in 20082), their rate instantly becomes higher than that of the United States.

Rare events
Rare events cannot be estimated using statistics. The person most likely to experience
a rare event is the one who performs the task the most. For example, if we have one
red ball in a bowl with 99 green ones, the probability that you would pick the red ball is
directly proportional to how many balls you pick. If you pick 90 balls, you have a 90
percent chance of picking the red one.

The U.S. works roughly 50 to 60 percent of the offshore E&P hours of the industrial
countries3. On the other hand, Australia works about five percent of the hours. The U.S.
is therefore about 20 times more likely to experience this rare event – an Occupational
Fatality – than Australia. Given the rarity of the event and the small number of hours
most countries work (relative to the U.S.), most countries either experience zero or one
event.

1
According to the International Regulators’ Forum (IRF) data used in the Commission’s report at
http://www.irfoffshoresafety.com/country/performance/
2
Ibid.
3
According to IRF, the U.S. worked between 115 and 173 million offshore E&P hours per year between 2007 and
2009.

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FACT SHEET
1/14/11

The U.S. Fatality Rate is usually higher than other countries because the U.S. is in a
statistical no-win situation. Most countries experience zero events. When they do not
(Australia had one event in 2008, for example), their Fatality Rate may jump to a level
higher than that of the U.S.
Drawing statistical conclusions based on Fatality Rates is misleading and inaccurate.

Injuries and Illnesses

Injuries and Illnesses – unfortunately – are not rare events. They are therefore the best
statistic to use to measure the overall safety record of an industry or country. The
Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) has used sample statistics and estimation
methodology to estimate Occupational Injuries and Illnesses with considerable accuracy
for decades. A well-constructed sample and good methodology can estimate the safety
record of an entire industry effectively. The fact that the U.S. Oil and Gas industry is
safer than its counterparts is not a reflection of any problem with underreporting but an
excellent indicator that the industry is safer in the U.S.

Drawing statistical conclusions based on Injury and Illness Rates is a sound practice.

Background
Historically, the U.S. government has attempted to estimate Occupational Injuries,
Illnesses, and Fatalities using survey sampling and estimation methodologies. While
estimates for Injuries and Illnesses were considered accurate, Fatality estimates varied
wildly depending on the source. In 1990, for example, estimates ranged from about
3,000 to as high as 11,0004. The BLS stated that “Occupational Fatalities are too rare to
be sampled effectively”5 and started to collect a census of Occupational Fatalities
instead of relying on statistical sampling techniques.

4
For 1990, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) survey estimated 2,900 occupational fatalities while the National
Safety Council (NSC) estimated 10,500.
5
Dino Drudi, The Evolution of Occupational Fatality Statistics in the United States, p.4, 1995.

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