MA105: Statistics with Computer Application

PROBABILITY

AQUINO, John Paul

CALUPITAN, Anne Marjorie

BSIT-2A

1 of 16
PROBABILITY

The mathematical theory of probability deals with patterns that occur in random events. For
example,

Problem:
A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green and red. What
are the chances of landing on blue after spinning the spinner? What are the
chances of landing in red?

Answer:
The chances of landing on blue are 1 in 4, or one fourth.
The chances of landing on red are 1 in 4, or one fourth.

This problem asked us to find some probabilities involving a spinner. Let's look at some
definitions and examples from the problem above.

Definition Example
An experiment is a situation involving chance or In the problem above, the experiment
probability that leads to results called outcomes. is spinning the spinner.
An outcome is the result of a single trial of an The possible outcomes are landing on
experiment. yellow, blue, green or red.
An event is one or more outcomes of an experiment. One event of this experiment is landing
on blue.
Probability is the measure of how likely an event is. The probability of landing on blue is
one fourth.

In order to measure probabilities, mathematicians have devised the following formula for
finding the probability of an event.

Probability of an Event
P(A) = the number of ways event A can occur
the total number of possible outcomes

The probability of event A is the number of ways event A can occur divided by the total number
of possible outcomes. Now Let's take a look at a slight modification of the problem from the top
of the page.

Experiment 1:
A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green and red.
After spinning the spinner, what is the probability of landing on each
color?

Outcomes:
The possible outcomes of this experiment are yellow, blue, green,
and red.

2 of 16
 Probabilities:
P(yellow) = number of ways to land on yellow =1
total number of colors 4
P(blue) = number of ways to land on blue =1
total number of colors 4
P(green) = number of ways to land on green =1
total number of colors 4
P(red) = number of ways to land on red =1
total number of colors 4

Experiment 2:
A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of each
outcome? What is the probability of rolling an even number? of
rolling an odd number?

Outcomes:
The possible outcomes of this experiment are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.

Probailities:
P(1) = number of ways to roll a 1 =1
total number of sides 4
P(2) = number of ways to roll a 2 =1
total number of sides 4
P(3) = number of ways to roll a 3 =1
total number of sides 4
P(4) = number of ways to roll a 4 =1
total number of sides 4
P(5) = number of ways to roll a 5 =1
total number of sides 4
P(6) = number of ways to roll a 6 =1
total number of sides 4

Experiment 2 illustrates the difference between an outcome and an event. A single outcome of
this experiment is rolling a 1, or rolling a 2, or rolling a 3, etc. Rolling an even number (2, 4 or
6) is an event, and rolling an odd number (1, 3 or 5) is also an event.

In Experiment 1 the probability of each outcome is always the same. The probability of landing
on each color of the spinner is always one fourth. In Experiment 2, the probability of rolling
each number on the die is always one sixth. In both of these experiments, the outcomes are
equally likely to occur. Let's look at an experiment in which the outcomes are not equally
likely.

Experiment 3:
A glass jar contains 6 red, 5 green, 8 blue and 3 yellow marbles. If a
single marble is chosen at random from the jar, what is the
probability of choosing a red marble? a green marble? a blue
marble? a yellow marble?

3 of 16
 Outcomes:
The possible outcomes of this experiment are red, green, blue and
yellow.

Probabilities:
P(yellow) = number of ways to land on red = 6 = 3
total number of colors 22 11
P(blue) = number of ways to land on green = 5
total number of colors 22
P(green) = number of ways to land on blue = 8 = 4
total number of colors 22 11
P(red) = number of ways to land on yellow = 3
total number of colors 22

The outcomes in this experiment are not equally likely to occur. You are more likely to choose
a blue marble than any other color. You are least likely to choose a yellow marble.

Experiment 4:
Choose a number at random from 1 to 5. What is the probability of
each outcome? What is the probability that the number chosen is
even? What is the probability that the number chosen is odd?

Outcomes:
The possible outcomes of this experiment are 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5.

Probabilities:
P(1) = number of ways to choose a 1 = 1
total number of numbers 4
P(2) = number of ways to choose a 2 = 1
total number of numbers 4
P(3) = number of ways to choose a 3 = 1
total number of numbers 4
P(4) = number of ways to choose a 4 = 1
total number of numbers 4
P(5) = number of ways to choose a 5 = 1
total number of numbers 4
P(even)= number of ways to choose an even number = 1
total number of numbers 4
P(odd) = number of ways to choose an odd number = 1
total number of numbers 4

The outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 are equally likely to occur as a result of this experiment.
However, the events even and odd are not equally likely to occur, since there are 3 odd
numbers and only 2 even numbers from 1 to 5.

4 of 16
Expressing Probabilities Example
The probability of getting heads in a toss coin.
As fraction 1
2
As percentage 50.00%
As odds 1:1 (one to one)

I. CERTAIN AND IMPOSSIBLE EVENTS

What is probability of a certain event?

If some thing is certain, then the probability of that something is 1.

What is the probability of an impossible event?

If something is impossible, then the probability of that something is 0.

Experiment 1:
A teacher chooses a student at random from a class of 30 girls.
What is the probability that the student chosen is a girl?

Probability:
30
P(girl) = =1
30
Since the class is composed entirely of girls, then choosing a girl is
certain to occur. This is an example of a certain event.

Experiment 2:
A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green, and red.
What is the probability of landing on purple after spinning the
spinner?

Probability:
0
P(purple) = =0
4
It is impossible to land on purple since the spinner does not contain
this color. This is an example of an impossible event.

Experiment 3:
A single six-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a
number less than 7?

Probability:
6
P(number<7) = =1
6
Rolling a number less than 7 is a certain event since a die's six sides
are number 1 through 6 only (all of which are less than 7).

5 of 16
 Experiment 4:
A total of five cards are chosen at random from a standard deck of
52 playing cards. What is the probability of choosing 5 aces?

Probability:
0
P(5 aces) = =0
52
It is impossible to choose 5 aces since a standard deck of cards has
only 4 of a kind. This is an impossible event.

Experiment 5:
A glass jar contains 15 red marbles. If a single marble is chosen at
random from the jar, what is the probability that it is red?

Probability:
15
P(red) = =1
15
Choosing a red marble is certain to occur since all 15 marbles in the
jar are red. This is a certain event.

II. SAMPLE SPACES

The sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes of any trial of the
experiment to be conducted.

• An element of the sample space is called a sample point.

• The sum of the probabilities of the distinct outcomes within a sample space is 1.

Experiment 1:
What is the probability of each outcome when a dime is tossed?

Sample Space:
{head,tail}
The outcomes of this experiment are head and tail.

Probabilities:
1
P(head) =
2
1
P(tail) =
2

Experiment 2:
What is the probability of each outcome when a single 6-sided die is
rolled?

Sample Space:
{1,2,3,4,5,6}

6 of 16
Probabilities:
1 1
P(1) = P(4) =
6 6
1 1
P(2) = P(5) =
6 6
1 1
P(3) = P(6) =
6 6

Experiment 3:
A glass jar contains 1 red, 3 green, 2 blue and 4 yellow marbles. If a
single marble is chosen at random from the jar, what is the
probability of each outcome?

Sample Space:
{red,green,blue,yellow}
The outcomes of this experiment are head and tail.

Probabilities:
1 2
P(red) = P(blue) =
10 10
3 4
P(green) = P(yellow) =
10 10

Experiment 4:
A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green, red. What
is the probability of landing on each color after spinning the spinner?

Sample Space:
{red,green,blue,yellow}

Probabilities:
1 1
P(yellow)= P(green) =
4 4
1 1
P(blue) = P(red) =
4 4

Experiment 5:
The experiment is drawing a card from a standard deck of 52 cards.
What is the probability of each outcome?

Sample Space Probabilities

{2♠, 2♣, 2♦, 2♥, 3♠, 3♣, 3♦, 3♥, ..., 1
P(card) =
A♠, A♣, A♦, A♥} 52
if we are interested in a distinct card
{red,black} 1
P(card color) =
if we are only interested in the color 2
of the drawn card

7 of 16
 {spade,club,heart,diamond} 1
P(card suite) =
if we are only interested in the suite 4
of the drawn card
{A,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,J,Q,K} 1
P(card value) =
if we are only interested in the value 13
of the drawn card

III. COMPLEMENT OF AN EVENT

The complement of an event A is the set of all outcomes in the sample space that are not
included in the outcomes of event A. The complement of event A is represented by A (read
as A bar).

Complement of an Event
P( A ) = 1 – P( A )
Given the probability of an event, the probability of its complement
can be found by subtracting the given probability from 1.

Experiment 1:
A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green and red.
What is the probability of landing on a sector that is not red after
spinning this spinner?

Sample Spaces:
{yellow,blue,green.red}

Probabilitiy:
P(not red) = 1 – P(red)
4 1
= –
4 4
3
=
4

Experiment 2:
A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a
number that is not 4?

Sample Spaces:
{1,2,3,4,5,6}

Probabilitiy:
P(not 4) = 1 – P(4)
6 1
= –
6 6
5
=
6

8 of 16
 Experiment 3:
A single card is chosen at random from a standard deck of 52
playing cards. What is the probability of choosing a card that is not
a king?

Sample Spaces:
{A,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,J,Q,K}

Probabilitiy:
P(not king) = 1 – P(king)
13 1
= –
13 13
12
=
13

Experiment 4:
A glass jar contains 20 red marbles. If a marble is chosen at
random from the jar, what is the probability that it is not red?

Sample Spaces:
{red}

Probabilitiy:
P(not red) = 1 – P(red)
=1–1
=0
This is an impossible event.

Experiment 5:
A single card is chosen at random from a standard deck of 52
playing cards. What is the probability of choosing a card that is not
a diamond?

Sample Spaces:
{spade,club,diamond,heart}

Probabilitiy:
P(not diamond) = 1 – P(diamond)
4 1
= –
4 4
3
=
4

IV. ADDITION RULES FOR PROBABILITY: MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time (i.e., they have
no outcomes in common).

9 of 16
 Mutually Exclusive Event Non-mutually Exclusive Event

The probabilities of events A and B are The probabilities of events A and B are
represented by two disjoint sets (i.e., they represented by two intersecting sets (i.e.,
have no elements in common). they have some elements in common).

Addition Rule 1: Mutually Exclusive Events

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
The probability that either event A or event B occurs is the sum
of their individual probabilities.

Experiment 1:
From a bag containing 5 white balls, 2 black balls, and 11 red
balls, 1 ball is drawn. What is the probability that it is either black
or red?

Probability:
P(black or red) = P(black) + P(red)
2 11
= +
18 18
13
=
18

Experiment 2:
What is the probability of drawing either a king, a queen, or a
jack from a deck of playing cards?

Probability:
P(king or queen or jack) = P(king) + P(queen) + P(jack)
4 4 4
= + +
52 52 52
12 3
= →
52 13

Experiment 3:
A single letter is chosen at random from the word SCHOOL.
What is the probability of choosing an S or an O?

10 of 16
 Probability:
P(S or O) = P(S) + P(O)
1 2
= +
6 6
3 1
= →
6 3

Experiment 4:
When tossing a coin, you have what probability of getting either a
head or a tail?

Probability:
P(H or T) = P(H) + P(T)
1 1
= +
2 2
2
= →1
2

Experiment 5:
A bag contains 12 blue, 3 red, and 4 white marbles. What is the
probability of drawing in 1 draw either a red or a white marble?

Probability:
P(R or W) = P(R) + P(W)
3 4
= +
19 19
7
=
19

V. ADDITION RULES FOR PROBABILITY: NON-MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

When two events, A and B, are non-mutually exclusive, there is some overlap between these
events. The probability that A or B will occur is the sum of the probability of each event, minus
the probability of the overlap.

Addition Rule 2: Non-Mutually Exclusive Events

P(A or B) = P(A)+P(B) – P(A and B)
The probability that A or B will occur is the sum of the probability of
each event, minus the probability of the overlap.

Experiment 1:
A single card is chosen at random from a standard deck of 52
playing cards. What is the probability of choosing a king or a club?

(In this experiment, the addition causes the king of clubs to be

counted twice so its probability must be subtracted.)

11 of 16
Probability:
P(king or club) = P(king) + P(club) - P(king of clubs)
4 13 1
= + –
52 52 52
16 4
= →
52 13

Experiment 2:
In a math class of 30 students, 17 are boys and 13 are girls. On a
unit test, 4 boys and 5 girls made an A grade. If a student is chosen
at random from the class, what is the probability of choosing a girl
or an A student?

(In this experiment, the addition causes the 5 girls that made an A
grade to be counted twice so its probability must be subtracted.)

Probabilty:
P(girl or A) = P(girl) + P(A) - P(girl and A)
13 9 5
= + –
30 30 30
17
=
30

Experiment 3:
On New Year's Eve, the probability of a person having a car
accident is 0.09. The probability of a person driving while
intoxicated is 0.32 and probability of a person having a car accident
while intoxicated is 0.15. What is the probability of a person driving
while intoxicated or having a car accident?

(In this experiment, the addition causes the probability of having a

car accident while intoxicated to be counted twice si its probability
must be subtracted.)

Probabilty:
P(intox or accd) = P(intox) + P(accd) – P(intox and accd)
= 0.32 + 0.09 – 0.15
= 0.26

Experiment 4:
A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a
number greater than 3 or an even number?

In this experiment, the addition causes the probability of rolling an

even number greater than 3 to be counted twice so its probability
must be subtracted.)

12 of 16
 Probabilty:
P(<3 or even)= P(>3) + P(even) - P(>3 and even)
3 3 2
= + –
6 6 6
4 2
= →
6 3

Experiment 5:
A student goes to the library. The probability that she checks out (a)
a work of fiction is 0.40, (b) a work of non-fiction is 0.30, and (c)
both fiction and non-fiction is 0.20. What is the probability that the
student checks out a work of fiction, non-fiction, or both?

Probability:
P(a or b or c) = P(a) + P(b) – P(c)
= 0.40 + 0.30 – 0.20
= 0.50

VI. MULTIPLICATION RULE OF PROBABILITY: INDEPENDENT EVENTS

Two events, A and B, are independent if the fact that A occurs does not affect the probability
of B occurring.

Some examples of independent events are:

• Landing on heads after tossing a coin AND rolling a 5 on a single 6-sided die.
• Choosing a marble from a jar AND landing on heads after tossing a coin.
• Choosing a 3 from a deck of cards, replacing it, AND then choosing an ace as the
second card.
• Rolling a 4 on a single 6-sided die, AND then rolling a 1 on a second roll of the die.

Note that multiplication is represented by AND.

Multiplication Rule 1: Independent Events

P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B)
The probability of two or more independent events occurring in
sequence can be found by computing the probability of each event
separately, and then multiplying the results together.

Experiment 1:
A dresser drawer contains one pair of socks with each of the
following colors: blue, brown, red, white and black. Each pair is
folded together in a matching set. You reach into the sock drawer
and choose a pair of socks without looking. You replace this pair
and then choose another pair of socks. What is the probability that
you will choose the red pair of socks both times?

(Choosing a pairs of socks from the drawer, replacing it, and then
choosing a pair again from the same drawer is a compound event.

13 of 16
Since the first pair was replaced, choosing a red pair on the first try
has no effect on the probability of choosing a red pair on the
second try.)

Probability:
1 P(red and red) = P(red) · P(red)
P(red) = 1 1
5
= ·
5 5
1
=
25

Experiment 2:
A coin is tossed and a single 6-sided die is rolled. Find the
probability of landing on the head side of the coin and rolling a 3 on
the die.

Probability:
1 P(head and 3) = P(head) · P(3)
P(head) = 1 1
2
= ·
1 2 6
P(3) = 1
6
=
12

Experiment 3:
A card is chosen at random from a deck of 52 cards. It is then
replaced and a second card is chosen. What is the probability of
choosing a jack and an eight?

Probability:
4 P(jack and 8) = P(jack) · P(8)
P(jack) = 4 4
52
= ·
4 52 52
P(8) = 16 1
52
= →
2704 169

Experiment 4:
A jar contains 3 red, 5 green, 2 blue and 6 yellow marbles. A marble
is chosen at random from the jar. After replacing it, a second
marble is chosen. What is the probability of choosing a green and a
yellow marble?

Probability:
5 P(green and yellow)
P(green) =
16 = P(green) · P(yellow)
6 5 6
P(yellow) = = ·
16 16 16
30 15
= →
256 128

14 of 16
 Experiment 5:
A school survey found that 9 out of 10 students like pizza. If three
students are chosen at random with replacement, what is the
probability that all three students like pizza?

Probability:
9 P(1 and 2 and 3) = P(1)·P(2)·P(3)
P(1) = 9 9 9
10
= · ·
9 10 10 10
P(2) = 729
10
=
9 1000
P(3) =
10

VII. MULTIPLICATION RULE OF PROBABILITY: DEPENDENT EVENTS

Two events, A and B, are dependent if the outcome or occurrence of the first affects the
outcome or occurrence of the second so that the probability is changed.

Experiment 1:
A card is chosen at random from a standard deck of 52 playing
cards. Without replacing it, a second card is chosen. What is the
probability that the first card chosen is a queen and the second
card chosen is a jack?

(Note that there is no replacement, so the outcome of choosing the

first card has affected the outcome of choosing the second card,
making these events dependent.)

Probability:
4
P(Q on first pick) =
52
4
P(J on second pick, given queen on first pick) =
51
4 4
P(Q and J) = ·
52 51
16 4
= →
2652 663

Experiment 1 involved two compound, dependent events. The probability of choosing a jack
on the second pick given that a queen was chosen on the first pick is called a conditional
probability. The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A is the
probability that event B occurs given that event A has already occurred.

Multiplication Rule 2: Dependent Events

When two events, A and B, are dependent, the probability of both
occurring is
P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B|A)

15 of 16
 Experiment 2:
Mr. Parietti needs two students to help him with a science
demonstration for his class of 18 girls and 12 boys. He randomly
chooses one student who comes to the front of the room. He then
chooses a second student from those still seated. What is the
probability that both students chosen are girls?

Probability:
P(Girl 1 and Girl 2) = P(Girl 1) · P(Girl 2|Girl 1)
18 17
= ·
30 29
306 51
= →
870 145

Experiment 3:
In a shipment of 20 computers, 3 are defective. Three computers
are randomly selected and tested. What is the probability that all
three are defective if the first and second ones are not replaced
after being tested?

Probability:
3 2 1
P(3 defectives) = · ·
20 19 18
6 1
= →
6840 1140

Experiment 4:
Four cards are chosen at random from a deck of 52 cards without
replacement. What is the probability of choosing a ten, a nine, an
eight and a seven in order?

Probability:
4 4 4 4
P(10 and 9 and 8 and 7) = · · ·
52 51 50 49
256 32
= →
6497400 812175

Experiment 5:
Three cards are chosen at random from a deck of 52 cards without
replacement. What is the probability of choosing 3 aces?

Probability:
4 3 2
P(3 aces) = · ·
52 51 50
24 1
= →
132600 5525
Sources:
http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/intro_probability.html http://www.tpub.com/math2/
http://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/Dictionary.shtml

16 of 16