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Decisive Thinking Pays

29th January 2011

COMMODITY EYE CATCHERS OF THE WEEK

Buy MCX Copper (Feb) around 443 SL 438 TGT 453

THIS WEEK'S RECOMMENDATION

Commodity Recommendation
Gold Buy MCX Gold (Apr) above 20300 SL 20150 Tgt 20500
Sell MCX Gold (Apr) below 20000 SL 20200 Tgt 19700
Silver Buy MCX Silver(Mar) above 43400 SL 42600 Tgt 44400
Sell Silver (Mar) below 42000 SL 42700 TGT 41000
Copper Buy MCX Copper (Feb) around 443 SL 438 TGT 453
Nickel Buy MCX Nickel (Feb) around 1225 SL 1180 TGT 1260
Zinc Buy MCX Zinc (Feb) around 106 SL 102 TGT 111
Lead Sell MCX Lead (Feb) around 115.50 SL 111 TGT 121
Crude Oil Buy MCX Crude Oil (Feb) around 4050 SL 3990 Tgt 4150
Natural Gas Buy MCX Natural Gas (Feb) above 203 SL 196 Tgt 210

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK' RECOMMENDATION

Commodity Outcome
Gold Successful
Silver Partially Successful
Copper Partially Successful
Nickel Partially Successful
Zinc Price level not attained
Lead Partially Successful
Crude Oil Successful
Natural Gas Unsuccessful

COMMODITY PERSPECTIVE
DOLLAR

The dollar rose modestly against the euro Friday, after fourth quarter U.S. growth
estimates, though weaker than expected, showed encouraging signs of strength. A dollar
correction was long overdue. And, so it was on Friday, the greenback managed its first
advance against the euro in six days and only its third positive performance in three weeks.
Though coming slightly below the market consensus, the advanced reading of 4Q US GDP
was still a strong report. The 3.2 percent annualized pace was backed by the strongest
performance in consumer spending in over for years, the biggest contribution from net
exports in 30 years and the strongest clip of overall growth excluding inventories in 26
years.

That said, we should recall that the Fed said just this past week that expansion has yet to
materially improve the employment situation. What's more, there is a dollar-positive
dimension to this data as well as it plays to relative growth. Instability in the Middle East;
concerns over Europe, Japan and China; as well as presence of key data could help guide the
necessary steps. At the top of our threat list is January NFPs; but a Friday release means we
have an entire week to jumpstart a move before the indicator's gravity stalls the markets

Condt...

Anagram Comtrade Ltd. 1 29th January 2011

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BULLION

“Rein the bears, they are thrashing!!” seems exactly descrbing punchline for bullions
past week. The much awaited US FOMC conclusion became Grenback foe but it did not
support the bullions and the resultant crash was witnessed in Gold loosing 1% where as Silver
gained 0.8% bearing the surprised weekend trend on the back og lower than expected GDP.
Japan lost its credit rating for the first time and Europe was full of pessimism at DAVOS
meeting but the bear run for bullions could not stop. Bullion ETFs have sheded larger pie of
their holdings this week. Gold ETFs sheded 2.28% of their holdings where as Silver ETFs
arounbd the globe have sheded 0.84% of their holdings as compared to the last week.

Gold lost the $1350 level and headed towards $1305 critical level breaking which we expect it
to touch $1280. Silver continued breaking the lows and touched $26.30 heading towards $25
mark. At domestic front Gold has thrashed 20000 level and touched 19500 level heding
towards 19400 level. Silver broke 42000 and touched 41300 heading towards 40800 level.

For the week coming by we expect bullions to continue on their bear run touching $1300 and
$25 for Gold & Silver respectively. At the domestic front we expect Gold to trade at 19400
where as Silver is expected to trade at 40500 level.

BASE METALS

Base metals witnessed positive week on the back of Near Zero US Interest rates and Better
home sales as well as GDP data. Nickel which rose 1.34% ranging towards 2008 levels of
1220 on the back of concern that supply of nickel might be reduced by the rising coking coal
prices.

Copper rose by 0.7% at $9590 as compared to last week resulted from world copper demand
outpaced supply by a seasonally adjusted 35,000 metric tons in October as per the
International Copper Study Group and Copper stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures
Exchange fell for a second week by 1,114 metric tons to 129,250 tons. But the gains in
Copper were restricted by Chinese move to curb property prices which rose for the 19th
month in December.

Lead & Zinc gave unexpected results where in lead rose by 1.87% and Zinc gained 1.65%
being the only base metal to lose the ground. Lead inventory was on all time high at weekend
where as Zinc inventories traded near high level.

For the week coming by we expect base metals to rise high and making landmarks especially
in Copper, Nickel & Lead where as zinc is expected to trade sideways.

ENERGY
The economic growth data gave investors something to cheer about following a string of
disappointing updates. Though Inventories data this week from the US Department of Energy
was bearish, showing a massive gain of 4.8 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles in the US.

Oil prices surged Friday after antigovernment protests intensified in Egypt, touching off fears
that the unrest that has swept several countries in the region could spread to major oil-
producing states. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on Friday deployed the military to the
streets of Cairo and declared a curfew in several cities, seeking to quell massive
antigovernment demonstrations that drew tens of thousands of people. Tanks entered city
streets and police fired rubber bullets, tear gas and water cannons at protesters.

The Obama administration expressed "deep concern" and urged "open communications" in
Egypt, after the country shut down internet and cell-phone services. The message marked a
change from Thursday's mild expressions of support for Mubarak. Although Egypt isn't a
major supplier of the world's oil, fears emerged Friday that the unrest could spread to other
regimes in the region that do account for a larger share of global oil production. Buy on dips
would be strategy for Crude Oil next week.

Anagram Comtrade Ltd. 2 29th January 2011

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ECONOMIC DATA

Date and Time Country Event Period Expectation Prior

31-Jan US Personal Spending DEC -- 0.40%
US Personal Income DEC -- 0.30%
US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity JAN -- 12.8
1-Feb CH PMI Manufacturing JAN 53.5 53.9
IN Exports YoY% DEC -- 26.50%
IN Imports YoY% DEC -- 11.20%
EC PMI Manufacturing JAN F 56.9 --
EC Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate DEC 10.10% 10.10%
US Construction Spending MoM DEC 0.10% 0.40%
US ISM Manufacturing JAN 57.5 57
2-Feb US Total Vehicle Sales JAN 12.70M 12.53M
EC Euro-Zone PPI (YoY) DEC 5.20% 4.50%
US MBA Mortgage Applications 28-Jan -- -12.90%
3-Feb IN Primary Articles WPI YoY 22-Jan -- 17.26%
EC Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) DEC 0.20% 0.10%
EC ECB Announces Interest Rates 3-Feb 1.00% 1.00%
US Initial Jobless Claims 29-Jan -- 454K
US Factory Orders DEC 1.30% 0.70%
4-Feb US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls JAN 130K 103K
US Unemployment Rate JAN 9.50% 9.40%
US Avg Weekly Hours All Employees JAN 34.3 34.3

Anagram Comtrade Ltd. 3 29th January 2011

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Decisive Thinking Pays
OUR TEAM

COMMODITIES RESEARCH
Analyst Coverage E-mail Tel. (Direct)
Avinash Gorakshakar - Head Research avinash.gorakshakar@anagram.co.in +91 92231 78007
Renisha Chainani - Deputy Manager renisha.chainani@anagram.co.in +91 79 6662 9859
Tapan Patel - Bullion & Energy tapan.patel@anagram.co.in +91 79 6662 9975
Jatin Pateliya - Base Metals & jatin.pateliya@anagram.co.in +91 79 6662 9801
Technical Analyst
Anil Panchal -Technical Analyst anil.panchal@anagram.co.in +91 79 6662 9975

For any clarification and more information: Commodity Research Desk: 92272 60068

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