Top Picks of 2011

Institutional Equity Research
Industry Update
January 17, 2011 Off The Press
Top Picks Of 2011
In 2010 our top picks, as a portfolio and if held for the full year, performed
well ahead of the TSX Composite – up 20.5% on a price basis vs. 12.5% for
the Composite. Of our top picks, nine outperformed the index and seven
performed worse; all but one of our picks generated a positive return.
2011 has opened with an even better tone than was the case in 2010, as
much of the economic malaise seems to be behind us, although there are
issues of concern, the long-term risk being deflation and the short-term
risks likely more inflationary.
Despite the positive market moves over these past 18 months, our Head of
Portfolio Strategy believes there is still very good reason to stay long stocks
(vs. bonds) over the next 12 months, provided short-term market weakness
is not a concern and the Fed is successful with QE2/3.
We summarize our fundamental analysts' top picks for 2011 in this report,
including a full tear sheet of key fundamentals for each pick and a technical
view from Sid Mokhtari, our technical analyst.
All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated. 11-106911 © 2011
CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
CIBC World Markets Inc. required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
1 (416) 594-7000 See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
end of this report, or at the end of each section hereof, where applicable.
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Top Picks Of 2011 - January 17, 2011
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Director’s Overview................................................................................ 3
Portfolio Strategy: Do You Believe In Magic? ............................................. 6
TOP PICK PROFILES
5N Plus, Incorporated .......................................................................... 30
Angle Energy Inc. ................................................................................ 33
Black Diamond Group Limited................................................................ 36
Bombardier Inc. .................................................................................. 39
C&C Energia Ltd. ................................................................................. 42
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited............................................................ 44
Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT ............................................................. 47
Daylight Energy Ltd. ............................................................................ 50
EnCana Corporation ............................................................................. 53
Jean Coutu Group (PJC) Inc. ................................................................. 56
Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. ........................................................................ 59
NAL Energy Corporation ....................................................................... 62
Onex Corporation ................................................................................ 65
Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp. ................................................................ 68
Pan American Silver Corp. .................................................................... 71
Penn West Petroleum Ltd...................................................................... 74
Petrominerales Ltd............................................................................... 77
Quadra FNX Mining Ltd......................................................................... 80
Rogers Communications Inc. ................................................................. 83
Semafo Inc......................................................................................... 86
Suncor Energy Inc. .............................................................................. 89
Toronto-Dominion Bank........................................................................ 92
2
Director’s Overview
It has been a rollercoaster of a market ride over the past five years during which
I have had the pleasure of managing the equity research team at CIBC. By their
very nature, the markets consistently make successful and consistent stock
picking a challenge. The notion of top picks at a firm that prides itself on
delivering differentiated research is always a very public and measured test of
our capabilities, one that our investor clients seem to look forward to each year.
The first three years of my tenure as Head of Research, the average total price
return for the team’s top picks for each year had been underperforming the
benchmark TSX by a meaningful margin; however, this tide has turned in the
past two years. In 2010 our top picks as a portfolio (if held for the full year)
performed well ahead of the TSX Composite – up 20.5% on a price basis vs.
12.5% for the Composite. Of the 16 top picks, nine outperformed the index and
seven performed worse, although all but one of our picks generated a positive
return.
Exhibit 1. Five-year History Of Annual Top Picks Returns

CIBC Top Picks' Portfolios (Held For The Full Year) Average Full-year Price Return TSX Annual Return
2006 (Publishing Date – January 5, 2006) 10.30% 14.51%

2007 (Publishing Date – January 11, 2007) (0.90%) 7.16%
2008 (Publishing Date – January 11, 2008) (36.80%) (35.03%)
Average Annual Price Return For Last Five Years 14.9% 6.0%
Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.
2011 has opened with an even better tone than was the case in 2010, as much
of the economic malaise seems to be behind us, although, as Peter Gibson
enumerates elsewhere, there are still lots of issues of concern, the biggest
long-term risk being deflation although the short-term risks are likely more
inflationary as the Fed wrestles with reviving an economy through quantitative
easing. Critical, in Peter’s view, will be the Fed’s success in keeping the bond
yield below a ceiling of 3.8%, the level at which equities will become pricey and
forecasting messy. With a strong recovery in the wider benchmark indices on
both sides of the border in 2009 and 2010, investors may have to settle in for a
slightly more reserved market. Despite the positive market moves over these
past 18 months, our Head of Portfolio Strategy believes there is still very good
reason to stay long stocks (vs. bonds) over the next 12 months, provided
short-term market weakness is not a concern and the Fed is successful with
QE2/3. In addition, the emerging economy theme for China and India positions
Canada’s resource economy to experience ROE recovery that should be quite
robust, although the absolute levels are being forecast to remain below those to
be delivered south of the border. Peter is forecasting year-end levels for the TSX
and S&P 500 of 14,800 and 1,384, respectively, suggesting that Canada’s stock
market will outperform its neighbor to the south.
For the year just ended, our analysts’ top picks, as a portfolio (if held for the full
year), performed well ahead of the TSX – up 20.5% on a price basis (see
Exhibit 2) vs. 12.5% for the Composite during the same period (1/11/10 to
12/31/10). Within our returns, nine of the 16 stocks outperformed the TSX
Composite Index for the period and seven performed worse, although all but one
achieved positive returns for shareholders.
3
The highest Sector Outperformer return achieved by our analyst team, held for
the full year, was Jeff Fetterly’s pick of Total Energy Services (TOT–TSX, SP
rated), which generated a 106% price return for the full holding period. This is a
three-peat for Jeff in delivering the top-returning stock (full-year return),
although this year he didn’t recommend investors hold it for the full period, as
he downgraded the stock after a 33% gain through April 2010.
Despite a more active M&A environment, none of the top picks benefitted from a
big takeover premium that has been available in past years and something Jeff
benefitted from with his pick in 2008. We highlight in Table 2 those four stocks
for which we lowered our rating from Sector Outperformer during the course of
the year and those two stocks for which we had a change in analyst coverage. In
both cases, we provide the date and price of the security on the day the report
was released to the market and a calculated price return to that date. If we use
these returns (and pretend the investor simply put the cash raised from the sale
under their pillow), our total return for the portfolio of top picks drops to 14.0%,
still 150 basis points (bps) better than the Composite Index price return.
Exhibit 2. Top Pick Performance For 2010

Return To
Change Of
Drop Coverage Rating Or
Price On Or Changed Price On Date Dropped Price On Full-year
Top Picks For 2010 1/11/2010 Rating Of Change Coverage Date 12/31/10 Price Return Reason For Change
5N Plus, Incorporated $6.25 $7.00 12.0%
BPO Properties Ltd. $18.48 $21.65 17.2%
Canadian National Railway Company $58.38 4/9/2010 $61.17 4.78% $66.35 13.7% Rating Downgrade
Eldorado Gold Corporation (US$) $15.05 7/21/2010 $15.69 4.25% $18.57 23.4% Rating Downgrade
Empire Company Limited $47.70 $55.82 17.0%
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. $94.75 $108.00 14.0%
Franco-Nevada Corporation $30.55 $33.26 8.9%
Genworth MI Canada Inc. $25.82 $27.59 6.9%
H&R REIT $16.17 $19.43 20.2%
March Networks Corp. $3.93 $4.10 4.3%
Pan American Silver Corp. (US$) $25.71 $41.21 60.3%
Shaw Communications Inc. $21.05 $21.35 1.4%
Suncor Energy Inc. $38.58 1/26/2010 $35.03 (9.20%) $38.28 (0.8%) Analyst Departure
Taseko Mines Limited $4.47 11/3/2010 $4.94 10.51% $5.20 16.3% Rating Downgrade
Total Energy Services $6.89 4/15/2010 $9.16 32.95% $14.19 106.0% Rating Downgrade
TransCanada Corp. $35.15 12/1/2010 $36.88 4.92% $37.99 8.1% Analyst Departure
Average Price Return For Holding Through 12/31/10 20.5%
TSX Composite Return 11947 13443 12.5%
Avery Shenfeld and our economics team believe that we are still a way from the
stairway to heaven of big job gains that would reduce the unemployment levels
materially, but the recent efficiency push on the back of capital spending should
position the U.S. economy for better job recovery in the back half of the year.
While the economics team believes the Fed may act early in the year, it will not
be aggressive and will likely revert to “stand-by” mode until the end of the year.
In his most recent economics piece, Not Yet Heaven in Twenty Eleven, Avery
Shenfeld outlines what he thinks is in store for the coming year. Much of it is
expected to be the same as 2010, but with the U.S. generating slightly better
GDP growth than previously forecast, at just about 2.6% – led by a slightly more
confident consumer. This positioning should help to create an investment
environment that continues to have more stability.
4
The backdrop in Canada remains better than we foresee globally, although there
is some concern over the strength of the consumer and their ability to contribute
to the economic expansion with the same vigor as they delivered in 2010.
Strong prospects for our resource industries and improving manufacturing and
business investment should start to shoulder more of the economic growth as it
is offloaded by the consumer in Canada. When we compare the outlooks for the
economies of Canada and the U.S., the economic indicators like GDP growth,
consumption growth, and unemployment rate suggest, in composite, that
Canada should fare better than our neighbors south of the border.
We asked Peter Gibson, Head of Portfolio Strategy, to provide us with a macro

view on where he expects the markets to go in 2011. We anticipate that this
article will be followed up in the coming month with some additional color on
where our quantitative models are predicting differentiated performance in the
market. Once again for 2011 there is a full tear sheet of key fundamentals for
each of our top picks (these are found on an ongoing basis on the second page
of our fundamental research reports) and a technical view.
Exhibit 3. Top Picks Of 2011

12- To 18- month Price
Ticker Company Rating Target
VNP 5N Plus, Incorporated Sector Outperformer $8.50
NGL Angle Energy Inc. Sector Outperformer $9.25
BDI Black Diamond Group Limited Sector Outperformer $24.00
BBD.B Bombardier Inc. Sector Outperformer $7.00
CZE C&C Energia Ltd. Sector Outperformer $15.75
CP Canadian Pacific Railway Limited Sector Outperformer $78.00
CSH.UN Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT Sector Outperformer $9.75
DAY Daylight Energy Ltd. Sector Outperformer $13.50
ECA EnCana Corporation Sector Outperformer US$36.00
PJC.A Jean Coutu Group (PJC) Inc. Sector Outperformer $11.50
KGI Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. Sector Outperformer $22.00
NAE NAL Energy Corporation Sector Outperformer $16.00
OCX Onex Corporation Sector Outperformer $40.25
PRE Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp. Sector Outperformer $43.50
PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. Sector Outperformer US$52.00
PWT Penn West Petroleum Ltd. Sector Outperformer $32.00
PMG Petrominerales Ltd. Sector Outperformer $42.00
QUX Quadra FNX Mining Ltd. Sector Outperformer $25.50
RCI.B Rogers Communications Inc. Sector Outperformer $44.00
SMF Semafo Inc. Sector Outperformer $18.50
SU Suncor Energy Inc. Sector Outperformer $47.50
TD Toronto-Dominion Bank Sector Outperformer $84.00
Source: CIBC World Markets Inc.
We summarize the fundamental analysts’ top picks for 2011 throughout the rest
of the report along with the technical view for each of these top picks from Sid
Mokhtari, our technical analyst. On behalf of CIBC, we wish all of our clients a
healthy and prosperous new year.
Quentin Broad
Managing Director, Head of Equity Research
5
Do You Believe In Magic?

Peter Gibson, Toronto (416) 594-7194
Jeff Evans, CFA, Toronto (416) 956-3250
We believe that by the end of 2011 the TSX will have recorded gains of
approximately 11.5% with a dividend yield of over 2% for a total return of
approximately 14% for the year. We expect that the S&P 500 will record a total
return gain of over 10% comprised of price appreciation on the order of 9%,
combined with a dividend yield of approximately 1.8%. The TSX should continue
to outperform the S&P 500 as a result of continued growth in the emerging
nations as the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to rely on quantitative easing.
Relatively high structural unemployment in the U.S. and continued weakness in

the U.S. real estate market have resulted in a U.S. recovery that is
approximately one-third to one-half the rate of growth we would like to see.
Unfortunately, the outlook for the global economy and, in particular, North
American equity markets, relies on the U.S. Federal Reserve's successful
administration of quantitative easing through 2011. At the same time, China and
Japan have a vested interest in working with the U.S. to help underpin their
recovery while trying to stabilize the debt crisis in Europe. So far it appears to
be working. Exhibit 4 is a summary of our forecasts for 2011.
Exhibit 4. 2011 Forecasts Summary

Recent 2011E
Canada
TSX 13,272 14,800
T-Bills 0.95 1.28
Bond Yields 3.34 3.44
U.S.
S&P 500 1,271 1,384
T-Bills 0.16 0.3
Bond Yields 3.33 3.46
WTI Oil (US$/Bbl) 88 93-103
Gold (US$/oz.) 1,369 1,580
C$/US$ 1.00 0.97-1.03
Themes
By traditional measures, the U.S. economy is weak but should gain some
momentum in 2011. Most strategists would say the same for 2011. Presumably,
therefore, the longer that the U.S. is on the path to recovery then the longer
that BRIC nations will grow, albeit at much faster rates. Every year of economic
growth is another year of growing global oil consumption. Coordinated global
growth is clearly a leading cause of persistently higher average oil prices.
Understanding the link between quantitative easing and preventing bond yields
from reaching our estimated 3.8% ceiling is the key to appreciating how long
gold and oil prices and the TSX can likely rise. The benefits which Canada enjoys
as an exporter of commodities while benefiting from sustainably low U.S. rates is
obvious – The question is simply one of how long can the U.S. quantitatively
ease and can the U.S. begin to see self-sustaining economic growth in 2011 that
resembles the early stages of recovery witnessed in 2004?
6
To do this, the U.S. housing market must stabilize. If the U.S. recovery is taking
hold, then the U.S. dollar should strengthen. Nonetheless, we would expect
continued but slower appreciation in gold prices owing to emerging economy
growth, hence the US$1,580/oz. gold price target. Yet, we still believe that, if
possible, the U.S. government would still choose to push the U.S. dollar
devaluation below the recent lows. As long as quantitative easing holds the bond
yield below 3.8%, then more can be done which still pushes the U.S. dollar
devaluation further, in which case US$1,700/oz. gold is likely. It is more a
matter of understanding the Fed’s ability to continue administering quantitative
easing because the day that it becomes necessary to withdraw substantial
liquidity is the day investors risk forecasting chaos.
Risks For The Fed

The range of possible outcomes for North American stocks and bonds is perhaps
greater than it has been in years. Global investors are placing their full faith and
confidence in the Fed’s successful administration of quantitative easing as there
remains a long list of ongoing risks. These risks include a number of geopolitical
hotspots, the ongoing risks in Europe, the fact that the U.S. stock market has
now rallied 85% from its 2009 lows and that the recent rally has been so
significant that markets are well above mean reversion levels. The recently
recorded record-low volatility is very unusual. Historically, markets have
recorded very low volatility immediately before crisis, often in part, due to the
fact that low volatility often implies a sense of complacency.
Biggest Risk Is Deflation

Although deflation is, ultimately, the biggest risk that the North American
economy faces, the short-term cyclical risk is the growing fear of inflation,
specifically, that of food and energy inflation at a time when North America is
not recording any wage inflation. Emerging economy growth is underpinning
commodity inflation while the West is not demonstrating any evidence of wage
inflation.
The Fed Is Trying To Hold The 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield

Below 3.8%
In the absence of wage inflation, it is impossible to pass price increases through
to consumers and, therefore, it is unlikely that we will witness secular profit
growth driven by inflation in the way it was witnessed in the 1970s. Weak
corporate profit growth makes North American stock markets very sensitive to
the level of interest rates. We, therefore, believe that the U.S. Fed strategy of
quantitative easing is intended to hold U.S. bond yields below the critical 3.8%
level and, preferably, below the 3.5% level for as long as possible so that the
U.S. economy can continue to recover at the current, relatively, weak rate. This
fact underpins investors’ reliance on the Fed’s ability to continue administering
quantitative easing.
We cannot over-emphasize the significance we attach to the Fed’s goal of

holding 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yields below the 3.8% level, which is
indicated by our asset mix models. We believe that the safe haven, reserve
currency, status of the U.S. gives it the room to continue relying on the use of
quantitative easing. If bond yields, however, should rise above the 3.5% level,
the implication would be that quantitative easing is losing its effectiveness. The
Fed then could still, reluctantly, raise short-term interest rates slightly in the
hope that bond yields would then fall. We refer to this as a tilting yield curve and
it could still be a last resort strategy for the Fed in an attempt to prevent bond
yields from rising too much, but it is an inherently risky strategy. In 2004,
during the early stages of that five-year recovery, the Fed tilted the yield curve.
Historically, when the U.S. yield curve tilts, it is very favorable for equity
markets as long as corporate profitability is stable or rising.
7
The Circular Irony Of Quantitative Easing, Higher Oil Prices

And Stable Bond Yields
In a sense, the goal would be to hold bond yields at 3.3% when, perhaps, the
10-year Treasury would naturally be at 4.1%. The longer that the Fed can do
this, the greater the likelihood that U.S. economic growth gains momentum and
that growth becomes self-sustaining. The risk is that inflation gains momentum
and when the Fed no longer has the resources to fight the upward tendency in
yields, they skyrocket. Eventually, it is like trying to stop the water flowing from
a garden hose by holding your thumb over the end. A sudden significant upward
move in bond yields and, therefore, mortgage rates would be catastrophic for
home prices and consumer confidence in the absence of wage inflation and
inflationary profit growth stock markets would be crippled when bond yields rise
too much.
In fact, our view is a little different, i.e., given the sheer potential size of
emerging economies, it is a race against time to see which nation is more
energy efficient, can adapt faster, develop energy substitutes faster and
withstand sustainably higher oil prices longer than others. From time to time,
however, high oil prices should underscore the safe haven status of the U.S. and
act as a growth tax rather than a cause of secular inflation at first.
We would think that sustainably high oil prices actually contribute to weaker
U.S. growth relative to their historical experience and contribute to holding bond
yield in the desired rate (i.e., 3%–3.3%). The irony being that this level of bond
yields increases the likelihood of more quantitative easing.
Implications
At present, the 3.8% 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield level represents the level
of yields that causes the S&P 500 to appear significantly overvalued. At these
levels and above, we would also anticipate significant new pressure for U.S. real
estate prices. This is the dilemma the Fed faces and it is the direct result of too
much government and consumer debt. On the one hand, the U.S. desperately
needs a faster rate of economic recovery and, yet, if bond yields rise too much
then the risk of a panic in debt markets also exists. Exhibit 5 illustrates that the
implied ceiling for bond yields has been falling steadily for many years. Should
the Fed be forced to tighten because the bond yields reaches the 3.8% ceiling
too quickly while the U.S. economy is still relatively weak, then the risk of
another U.S. recession still exists, although even moderate tightening by the
U.S. would probably be perceived as a greater risk for Europe, resulting in
capital flow back into the U.S. Treasury market.
8
Exhibit 5. 10-year U.S. Treasury Floors And Ceilings

+57% -50% +94% -57% +85%
1800 9
1995 ceiling
1600 8
1997 ceiling
1400 2000 ceiling 7
2003 ceiling (5.9%)

1200 6
2002 ceiling
5.2% ceiling
Bond Yield (%)

4.8% ceiling
S&P 500 Index
1000 5
4% 1997 floor 4.1

800 3.8% 4
3.5% Excess debt floor
600 3
3.0%
Desired long term average
400 2
2.0% Ultimate floor
Term Structure
200 1
0%
0 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2012
1994
1995
1996
1997
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
S&P 500 10-yr U.S. bond yield
How Long Can The Fed Keep The Investing Window Open?
Our View On Bond Yields Below The Ceiling
As long as the 10-year bond yield remains below the 3.8% ceiling and U.S.
corporate profitability is rising, then we remain optimistic about the outlook for
North American equities. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, however, has
recently been as high as 3.5% and it is likely that quantitative easing has played
a significant role in preventing yields from rising further. Since the year 2000,
there have been two massive collapses in the U.S. stock market. The first
collapse occurred from 2000 until October 2002. The second collapse occurred
during the housing crisis of 2007 and the banking crisis of 2008. Both major
market collapses were signaled by three critical observations. First, the 10-year
U.S. Treasury yield exceeded the then current bond yield ceiling. Second,
S&P 500 profitability had started to decline. Third, this decline probably resulted
from the fact that the Fed had tightened until the U.S. yield curve became
inverted (see Exhibit 7). On both of these occasions, the bid-to-cover ratio for
U.S. Treasuries was also at relatively low levels (see Exhibit 8).
By contrast, the recovery in 2009 coincided with bond yields at the low end of
our estimated range and forward ROE was recovering. The Fed had restored a
steep positive slope to the yield curve, trailing ROE was on the verge of recovery
and the bid-to-cover ratio began to rise due to the safe haven status of the U.S.
Treasury market demonstrated during the global banking crisis.
To assess the ongoing potential for the U.S. equity market, the first critical step
demands that we check Exhibits 5 to 8. We believe that, based on the fact that
the bid-to-cover ratio, albeit manipulated by the Fed, is at very high levels and
the U.S. yield curve maintains a steep positive slope, this would imply, for now,
the Fed can continue to quantitatively ease and hold the 10-year U.S. Treasury
bond yield below the critical 3.8% ceiling. This is crucial since Exhibit 6 for
S&P 500 ROE indicates that trailing and forward ROE are growing at
approximately one-third to one-half the desired rate.
9
Exhibit 6. S&P 500 Index And ROE (Forward And Trailing)
1800 25
1600
1400 20
1200
S&P 500 Index

15
ROE (%)
1000
800
10
600
400 5
200
0 0
Jan-94
Jan-98
Jan-03
Jan-07
Jan-11
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
S&P 500 ROE Trailing ROE Forward
Exhibit 7. Yield Curve
-1
%
-2
-3
-4
-5
Jan-96
Jan-01
Jan-06
Jan-09
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-11
Yield Curve
Exhibit 8. Bid-to-Cover Ratio
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
10
Self-sustaining U.S. Economic Recovery Still Depends On

Quantitative Easing
In fact, we view it as very dangerous to be naively making forecasts for
gold and oil prices and the Canadian dollar based on emerging economy
growth without realizing that, in reality, they all turn on QE 2, 3 and the
bond yield ceiling. Given these facts, we are optimistic about the Fed’s
chances of success in eventually establishing a self-sustaining U.S. economic
recovery, but we know full well that this view depends entirely on quantitative
easing, thereby holding 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yields below the critical
3.8% level. Quantitative easing, in fact, impacts our outlook for the U.S. dollar
and, in turn, emerging economy growth, oil prices, gold prices and the Canadian
dollar. Virtually every forecast, therefore, at the present time, is directly
impacted by the Fed’s ability to quantitatively ease and hold bond yields below
the critical level. If the Fed fails, then we would expect forecasting chaos.
Exhibit 9. The U.S. Economy (Equities, Cash And Real Estate)
U.S. Cash
S&P 500
U.S. Residential
U.S. Commercial
Could This Be 2004 Because We Are Recovering From

Recession?
Exhibit 9 further underscores the fine line that the Federal Reserve is walking. At
the same time that bond yields are a mere 50 bps from the ceiling, U.S.
residential and commercial real estate prices remain weak. Fortunately,
quantitative easing is underpinned by a significant rally in the S&P 500. It is
very common to experience crises late in an economic cycle such as 1987/1988
and 1997/1998 and then again recently in 2007/2008. The 2007/2008 crisis,
however, resulted in a very significant U.S. recession. The U.S. equity market
began to recover in October 2002 from the recession witnessed during that
period. The equity market recovery was supported by corporate profit growth
and the equity market rally persisted until 2007 when bond yields again reached
the then current ceiling. Usually after the late-cycle crises, the market rebounds
for about two years before higher rates lead to another recession, but, as in
2004, we are trying to emerge from a recession, whereas other late-cycle crises
do not, typically, result in technical recessions.
11
Exhibit 10. S&P 500 Total Return (2000 To Present)
Resembles 2004? A Minor Positive Supporting A Growing

Investor Confidence
In Exhibit 10, the S&P 500 total return graph demonstrates how persistent and
significant that equity rally proved to be from 2002 to 2007. Although corporate
profit growth was stronger then compared with today, there were other ancillary
indications pointing to a continued recovery in equity prices. It was interesting
to note that there was an inverted head and shoulders pattern that occurs in
2002 and again in 2004. We witness this pattern again during 2008, 2009 and
during 2010.
Head-and-shoulder patterns are among a few of the patterns that seem to have
a demonstrable history of success. The simplistic implication here would be that
the S&P 500 goes sideways for several months, but finishes the year modestly
higher after the big year-end run-up in 2010. It would be a minor indication of
growing confidence and a sustainable expansion.
What Pattern Is The Fed Hoping For?

We would think that the Fed is hopeful that the current period resembles 2004.
One of the key takeaways from that period is that bond yields came very close
to our calculated ceilings and, yet, some very modest Fed tightening prevented
the bond yield from rising above critical levels. Corporate profitability continued
to grow during that time and, ultimately, became the basis for a sustainable
stock market advance. After a sharp run-up in 2003, the S&P 500 moved
sideways to slightly down for the first part of 2004 and bond yields fell modestly.
We probably face a similar outcome today. If the Fed can use quantitative
easing or, if necessary, very modest tightening to keep bond yields within a
critical range, then the U.S. stock market may pause for part of 2011 while
keeping a longer-term upward trend intact.
12
In Canada, Stocks Still Outperform Bonds And T-bills

The very significant U.S. stock market rally at the end of 2010 and the ongoing
problems in Europe would suggest that the U.S. stock market needs to pause. In
fact, Exhibits 11 and 12 illustrate the returns from Canadian and U.S. stocks,
bonds and T-bills and shows very significant short-term losses in bonds since the
summer of 2010 while stock prices soared. These exhibits also show that,
despite all the turmoil of the last few years, the cumulative rate of return for the
TSX over the last five years again exceeds the rate of return for Canadian bonds
and T-bills.
Not The Case In The U.S.

By comparison, the S&P 500 five-year rate of return is still less than that of
T-bills and far less than that of U.S. bonds. Canada’s superior performance
resulted from a number of important factors, including a stronger banking
system and sustainably higher oil and gold prices because of emerging economic
growth.
Exhibit 11. Five-year Historical Returns: TSX, 10-yr Canadian Gov't.

Bonds And T-bills
CDN Bonds
CDN Cash
TSX
Exhibit 12. Five-year Historical Returns: S&P 500/600, 10-yr Bonds And
T-bills
CDN Bonds
U.S. Cash
S&P 600
S&P 500
13
TSX Versus S&P 500

Exhibit 13 further illustrates the significant performance of the TSX relative to
the S&P 500 but also demonstrates the very dramatic outperformance posted by
our CIBC Small-cap Index. The CIBC small-cap universe started from lower
levels in 2008 and, yet, has completely overtaken the S&P 500 and the TSX.
Since the lows of 2009, the TSX has also demonstrated both a small-cap effect
and a significant, related, rally in the shares of commodity sectors.
Exhibit 13. Five-year Historical Returns: TSX And S&P 500
TSX
S&P 500
CIBC Small Cap
Preference For TSX Over S&P 500 But Only If Bond Yield
Stays Below The 3.8% Ceiling In The U.S.
Our preference for the TSX relative to the S&P 500 depends entirely on the Fed’s
ability to keep bond yields below the 3.8% ceiling. If bond yields are held in the
range of 3% to 3.3% then the Fed is able to continue quantitatively easing. To
the extent that this contributes to a further devaluation of the U.S. dollar then
this implies generally higher gold and oil prices. Since approximately 50% of the
TSX is comprised of the energy and materials sectors, the level of U.S. bond
yields and the ability of the U.S. to continue quantitative easing is a major driver
of potential returns for the TSX. Not surprisingly, therefore, Exhibit 14 illustrates
the inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar and gold and oil prices, and
Exhibit 15 illustrates the very high correlation between TSX total returns and the
commodity Index.
14
Exhibit 14. Cumulative Returns: US$ Trade Weighted, Oil And Gold
10 120
9 115
8 110
7 105
6 100
5 95
4 90
3 85
2 80
1 75
0 70
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Oil (rebased) Gold (rebased) Trade-weighted USD (RHS)
Exhibit 15. High Correlation Between TSX And CRB Returns
TSX
CRB
Other Important Circular Implications Of Quantitative

Easing
Quantitative easing, therefore, has a number of other important implications.
Quantitative easing, for example, is intended to hold bond yields below the
critical ceiling levels of 3.8% but it also contributes to the devaluation of the
U.S. dollar as a result of monetizing debt and debasing the U.S. dollar in the
process. The U.S. is likely to pursue this strategy for as long as it possibly can.
The goal is not so much for the U.S. to become an export-dependent country as
a result of devaluing the dollar, but, rather, it is a strategy that contributes to
lower interest rates for export-dependent countries and, in general, for the
world. This is likely to remain the case until countries like China face a serious
threat from inflation.
15
Economic theory suggests that China cannot maintain an independent monetary

policy relative to the United States if it fixes its currency and tries to control
capital flows at the same time. This would imply that aggressive, easy, U.S.
monetary policy results in aggressive, easy, monetary policy for China, as long
as it tries to maintain its currency peg to the U.S. dollar. This has important
long-term potentially crisis implications for China. Therefore, quantitative easing
tends to contribute to rapid growth in emerging economies and, perhaps, even
inflationary growth in time.
U.S. Dollar Devaluation

In the short term, the U.S. dollar devaluation also contributes to higher oil
prices. Although the U.S. is the largest consumer of oil globally, it is also
relatively more efficient in its use of oil in generating GDP growth. In a sense,
therefore, higher oil prices create relatively more pressure for less energy
efficient, emerging economies but it also represents a growth tax on the U.S.
economy, which contributes to holding bond yields down at the same time.
Higher Oil Prices

Curiously, a sustainably higher oil price places relatively more pressure on other
economies and may, ironically, allow the U.S. to extend its quantitative easing
strategy. Sustainably high oil prices also create economic incentive for the U.S.
to pursue energy substitutes and, perhaps, ultimately, force its conversion to
natural gas just as the British economy once converted from coal to oil
dependence.
The sheer potential size of the Chinese and Indian economies, therefore, has
enormous implications for the average level of oil prices longer term and,
obviously, for investing opportunities in Canada. The U.S., therefore, is walking
a fine line between using quantitative easing in an attempt to re-establish
self-sustaining economic growth while risking much higher oil prices that could
derail both the U.S. and global recovery.
Sustainably high oil prices, therefore, are a cause and effect of quantitative
easing. Sustainably high oil prices are crucial today if the U.S. is to have the
economic incentive to lessen its reliance on oil before the emerging economies
become so large that oil prices are crippling. Yet, high oil prices are a growth
tax, which is relatively more punitive for other nations than the U.S. and in the
U.S. case can help hold bond yields down. It comes full circle then. Higher oil
prices can increase the risk of chaos elsewhere, thereby making the U.S. more
of a safe haven and simultaneously increasing the likelihood that the U.S. can
get away with more quantitative easing. In effect, we believe that the Fed's
ability to hold bond yields below the critical ceiling is the single most important
determinant of how high gold and oil prices can rise and for how long, as well as
how significant, the opportunity is for continued investment in these sectors. In
turn, these sectors are supercritical to the outlook for the TSX.
16
Exhibit 16. TSX Sector Returns: Financials, Materials And Energy
TSX Energy
TSX
Materials
TSX
Financials
Devalue The U.S. Dollar, Higher Gold Prices

The energy, material and financial sectors alone represent almost 80% of the
TSX market capitalization. Exhibit 16 illustrates the relative performance of
these three sectors since the beginning of 2000. Although the timing of the
gains from the energy and materials sectors differs a little, these two sectors
have been the leading drivers that have allowed the TSX to dramatically
outperform the S&P 500. The TSX energy sector has moved sharply higher as
West Texas Intermediate oil prices have reached the mid-90s. This represents
the level we expected to see for year-end 2010 and we should witness
improving profitability for the energy sector as a consequence in 2011.
Up to this point, however, the materials sector has recorded gains as a result of
higher gold prices from 2001 to the present. Since 2001, we have argued that
the U.S. dollar devaluation strategy is ongoing and a main driver of higher gold
prices. In general, we believe that the Fed will attempt to devalue the U.S. dollar
for as long as possible and that this is the main driver for higher gold prices as
gold is often a currency proxy. We expect oil prices to trade in a range of
US$93/Bbl–US$103/Bbl throughout 2011.
17
TSX Earnings Forecasts; Key Is

Stable S&P 500 ROE
The North American equity market gains and concurrent U.S. bond market
losses since the summer of 2010 are both unusually large. Even more dramatic,
however, are the gains that were recorded by the small-cap TSX materials
sector. This equally weighted small-cap index has soared in just two years.
Median Values: Key Data Points For The TSX

Exhibit 17 summarizes some of the key data points relating to the S&P/TSX
Index. We noted earlier that for both the S&P 500 and the TSX the rate of profit
growth on both the forward and on a trailing basis remains unusually weak. As
indicated by the sector relative weights in the first column, it should be noted
that the energy, materials and financial sectors account for 78.45% of TSX
market capitalization.
In order, however, to minimize the impact of outliers, the table summarizes the
median values for each of the sectors. For example, median TSX profit growth is
a mere 0.11 standard deviations. The strongest profit growth is being recorded
by the materials sector at 0.22 standard deviations. The median value for
financial sector profit growth is 0.19 standard deviations, although the big five
banks in Canada are, generally, recording ROE declines on a trailing basis.
Therefore, the weighted average return on equity for the sector is unchanged.
This is also significant to the overall return on equity characteristics of the TSX
since the financial sector represents approximately 29% of the index weight. In
effect, we anticipate stable to weaker ROE and earnings for 30% of the TSX,
improving earnings for the energy sector (26%) and much stronger earnings for
the materials sector. This underpins our outlook for $830 aggregate TSX
earnings.
Trailing Now Leading Forward Earnings

In general, we prefer to see return on equity growth rates of 0.3 standard
deviations or better. The energy sector return on equity is also largely
unchanged on the trailing basis. Given the recent significant run-up in oil prices,
it would be expected that forward return on equity would rise. In fact, Street
forward ROE growth rates are still showing minimal growth. We would expect
that to change as oil prices remain close to US$100/Bbl US for West Texas
Intermediate.
At this point in the cycle and given pervasive concerns about the U.S. economy,
it comes as little surprise that trailing earnings are now rising very slowly in the
S&P 500, while forward earnings forecasts are falling. It is likely that forward
Street forecasts will rise slightly so that S&P 500 ROE is likely to remain flat at
the currency very high levels (over 20%). TSX ROE, however, is likely to record
better growth but from lower levels (recently 12%, median 8%).
18
Exhibit 17. Key Data Points For The TSX

Median
CIBC Street
Sector Trailing Analyst Forward Implied
Relative Roe Implied Cash As Roe Total
Weight Growth Trailing Forward Dividend Return % Of Growth Forward Return
(%) ROE (%) (stddev) P/E (x) P/E (x) Yield (%) (%) Equity (stddev) Roe (%) (%)
All Sectors 100.00 8.85 0.11 17.58 14.89 1.56 15.72 13.12 0.08 11.93 11.02
Energy 26.10 7.67 -0.03 21.03 18.61 2.49 16.56 3.80 0.03 9.22 7.80
Materials 23.15 5.76 0.22 20.22 13.07 0.00 41.39 21.64 0.32 13.84 18.03
Industrial 5.44 10.99 0.07 18.42 17.55 1.79 13.92 16.23 -0.08 12.44 10.34
Consumer Discretionary 4.38 11.55 0.17 15.47 12.99 1.42 11.41 13.21 -0.09 11.95 10.89
Consumer Staples 2.94 15.46 0.05 14.08 14.40 1.54 9.59 8.30 -0.53 13.71 11.29
Healthcare 0.94 9.29 -0.93 25.74 22.03 0.57 10.80 -0.70 12.59 12.86
Financials 29.20 12.11 0.19 13.98 13.09 4.21 12.11 9.38 0.21 13.04 11.76
Info Tech 2.54 16.83 0.56 15.79 11.47 0.00 25.69 24.55 0.36 18.06 12.31
Telecom 3.57 13.82 -0.34 12.80 13.08 5.18 16.97 5.76 -0.05 13.61 6.52
Utilities 1.76 7.22 -0.15 19.53 21.00 5.72 10.36 3.84 -0.16 10.89 5.42
Forward Earnings And Traditional Valuation

Aggregate earnings for the TSX should be capable of reaching $830 judging by
the anticipated return on equity growth for the energy, materials and financial
sectors. Both trailing and forward growth is being recorded by the information
technology sector, although this sector is 2.5% of the TSX market capitalization.
In fact, the median forward P/E ratios for the materials sector and the financial
sector would be close to 13x one-year forward earnings. If the Street forward
earnings forecast is correct, this would imply a current P/E on forward earnings
of less than 15x for the TSX overall. We believe that TSX earnings will be a little
weaker than the Street expects and that there will be slight compression of the
earnings multiple during the course of the year. Nonetheless, as long as the
10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield remains below the ceiling, our TSX target of
14,800 for year-end 2011 appears likely. It is also worth noting that the CIBC
analyst median return is expected to be 15.72% and the Street median return is
expected to be 11.02%.
Attractive Financial Sector Yield; Now Just Make Sure ROE

Is Rising
Although the financial sector is not demonstrating significant profit growth at
present, it is recording a median dividend yield of 4.21%. Our global portfolio
system indicates that the weighted average dividend yield for the financial
sector is an impressive 3.84%. Sustainably high dividend-yielding stocks
will continue to be a crucial long-term investing strategy for those that
choose not to be active tactical asset allocators.
Very Large Cash Holdings On The Balance Sheet, Especially

In The U.S.
Finally, in both the U.S. and Canada but especially in the U.S., companies have
accumulated significant amounts of cash on their balance sheets as a percent of
common equity. This is especially true for the U.S. and Canadian information
technology sectors. In the U.S. case, information technology sector companies
are frequently what we also call value-added exporters. That is, more than 50%
of their revenues come from international operations and emerging economies.
In Canada, the two sectors with the most substantial amounts of cash on the
balance sheets would be the materials sector and the information technology
sector.
19
At present, we believe that these high cash holdings reflect concern about the
state of the North American economy and that these high cash holdings amount
to a war chest. If, however, the Fed can keep bond yields below the ceiling,
allowing more time for the U.S. economy to recover and for consumer
confidence to improve, then it is possible that these substantial cash holdings
are, ultimately, used for mergers and acquisitions, increased dividend payouts,
share buybacks and capital investment. It is simply a matter of the U.S.
economy appearing stable for long enough that U.S. consumer and business
confidence eventually returns.
Exhibit 18. The Last Two Major Bubbles In The U.S.
S&P 500
Consumer
Discretionary
Financials
Info Tech
Info Tech Not A New Mania Yet; Financials Recovering And

Galvanized
Exhibit 18 summarizes nicely the impact on share prices of the last two major
bubbles, specifically the collapse in U.S. info tech prices from 2000 to 2003 and
the collapse in financial sector share prices from 2007 until 2009. Both of these
sectors in the U.S. are recording profit growth at present and although both
areas have risen steadily since market lows of 2009, they remain far below the
levels recorded during their respective speculative manias. We often wonder if
the massive reorganization of the U.S. financial sector has better positioned the
U.S. for dealing with future emerging economy banking crises. Furthermore,
despite all the justified concern about the state of the U.S. consumer, the
consumer discretionary sector has been one of the leading performers through
2010.
To some extent, however, the U.S. consumer discretionary sector has also
benefited from exposure to value-added exporters. There is a large list of
blue-chip, large-capitalization, S&P 500 companies that are benefiting from their
exposure to emerging economy growth. Their links to emerging economy
revenues are fuelling significant profit growth in many cases. This should remain
a dominant theme for many years. Our counterparts in the TSX are the energy
and materials sectors.
20
Exhibit 19. Gold And Materials Sector Performance
Small Cap
Materials
Gold
TSX
Materials
S&P 500
Materials
Our Recommended Asset Allocation

The following is a partial summary of our recommended asset mix given our
2011 targets and limited space in this publication. Our recommended asset mix
is shown for our various investor profiles in the top right-hand corner of
Exhibit 20. We have benefited significantly by being overweight equities since
January 2009 and by staying the course in our Investment Strategy Committee
publication from November 2010. It is true, however, that we may be required
to change our asset allocation in the next couple of months. North American
equity markets are overdue for a correction now or, at least, should mark time.
Our long-term, far more significant, outlook, however, depends on all the issues
this publication addresses, namely the bond yield ceiling, ROE growth and
quantitative easing. Exhibit 20 illustrates the standard format for our basic
scenario analysis for asset allocation.
For the purpose of this article, we are focused on our 2011 forecasts, our
recommended asset allocation and the implied total portfolio returns. We have
indicated target levels for 2012 but these targets are highly dependent on a
number of things as we go through 2011. The gold and oil price targets for 2012
and the related level for the TSX depend almost entirely on the arguments that
we’ve already made with respect to the level of U.S. bond yields and the need
for continued profit growth. We will look seriously at 2012 targets later in 2011
but for now our concern is with getting this year’s levels correct, i.e., 2011.
21
Exhibit 20. Basic SAS
We have not yet changed our recommended asset allocation for the various
investor profiles outlined in the top right-hand corner of Exhibit 20. It is
extremely likely that we will change our recommended asset allocation over the
course of the next two to three months. This is especially true if the 10-year
U.S. Treasury bond yield level gets any closer to the 3.8% ceiling. In order to
provide some indication of our current view with respect to North American
stocks, bonds and T-bills, we have decided to focus on only one of the several
investor profiles.
A Discussion Of Only One Of Our Common Investor

Profiles: The Growth Profile
The most traditional investor profile we have referred to over the years is
probably best represented by a growth profile and an allowable asset mix range
as indicated by point C – tactical asset allocation (refer to Exhibit 20). This is
shown just under the blue “optimistic” button allocation asset mix ranges. Within
this allowable range we have remained at 40% Canadian equities, 20% U.S.
equities and 35% Canadian bonds, as indicated in Exhibit 21. This would permit
us to alter our stock and bond allocation within a range of 20% to 70% and alter
the T-bill exposure from 0% to 50%.
When we first introduced the growth investor profile at CIBC, we recommended

a 45% Canadian equity exposure, a 20% U.S. equity exposure and a 35%
Canadian bond exposure. If our year-end 2011 targets prove to be correct then,
22
according to our Scenario Analysis System (SAS) for asset allocation, we would
expect a portfolio with the growth-oriented investor profile to achieve a 9.26%
total return with a 10.25% standard deviation of returns.
Performance Attribution
Exhibit 21 shows the 65% total allocation to U.S. and Canadian equities, with
the remainder of 35% invested in Canadian bonds. The bar graph under the
performance attribution section of Exhibit 21 indicates that we expect the
majority of returns to result from being invested in Canadian equities in 2011.
The Canadian equity component is expected to contribute 5.83% of the total
portfolio returns of 9.26% but it also contributes a disproportionately larger
portion of the volatility for the total portfolio at 7.35%.
Exhibit 21. Growth – Optimistic (In Local Currency)
Optimization
Our scenario analysis system for asset allocation also allows us to compare what
our original recommended asset allocation would be with recommended weights
that result from mathematically optimizing exposure across all possible asset
classes. Our asset mix models play a very important role in determining the
timing of our exposure to a variety of asset classes. Our floor and ceiling
calculations in Exhibit 5 result from our asset mix modes. It should be noted
that we also choose to alter our asset mix exposure anytime we observe
significant changes in U.S. bond yield levels and North American corporate
profitability. We steadfastly believe that making changes to asset
allocation on an arbitrary and infrequent basis (i.e., once a year or once
every two years) is extremely dangerous in the current environment. As
we have noted often in the last 15+ years, long-term average equity returns
were expected to collapse and did collapse starting in 1998 (3.67% p.a. for the
S&P 500 since then) and, yet, the S&P 500 recorded rallies and collapses of
+57%, –50%, +94%, –57% and +85% since 1998. Understanding and
adjusting to these market moves is crucial to investor success.
23
Choice Of Optimization
Using our SAS optimization techniques, we can optimize the portfolio based on
maximizing return, maximizing the Sharpe ratio (return to risk ratio) or
maximizing the total portfolio variance. In the last example, we might choose to
maximize total portfolio variance in order to reduce the total perceived portfolio
risk. In every case, our optimization techniques are creating thousands of
combinations of portfolios in order to achieve the necessary combination and
resulting asset mix for our return for various objectives. We must stress that the
recommended asset mix depends almost entirely on our forecasts. The
objective, however, is to use the forecast return and volatility of each asset class
as well as the correlation between asset classes to see what asset mix is
required for our objectives. In our case, we do this to see how much our
short-term, currently, recommended asset mix varies from the one-year
mathematically optimized version based on our own targets and assumptions.
Maximize Returns
For example, Exhibit 22 shows our currently recommended exposure to
Canadian equities, Canadian bonds and U.S. equities for our growth investor
profile, assuming our optimistic set of targets for 2011, while calculating these
returns in local currency terms. If our goal was to maximize return for a 10%
maximum total portfolio variance over the next 12 months then we should hold
10% U.S. equities instead of our currently recommended 20% and 50%
Canadian equities instead of 45%. Optimizing the portfolio with the goal of
maximizing returns at 10% total portfolio variance would also suggest that we
reduce Canadian bond exposure from 35% currently to 15% while raising the AA
Canadian corporate bond exposure to 20%. Our likely changes in the next few
months should be guided by these optimized results. If we could simply set our
asset allocation and leave it unchanged for an entire year and assuming that our
year-end targets are all perfectly correct this would be the correct implied asset
allocation for maximizing returns for the total portfolio.
Exhibit 22. Max Return For A 10% Maximum Total Portfolio Variance
24
Maximize Sharpe Ratio

If we choose to maximize the ratio of return to volatility (risk and volatility are
not exactly the same) rather than just maximizing portfolio return, then the
recommended weights are found under the column heading Sharpe Max in
Exhibit 22. For the purpose of this article, however, we want to consider what
the recommended asset allocation would be if our goal were to limit the total
portfolio variance.
Using A Growth Profile Allowable Range, Our Targets But

Reducing Portfolio Volatility
We note in Exhibit 21 that our current recommended asset location based on our
2011 targets implies a 9.26% return with a total volatility of 10.25% standard
deviation of returns. A more conservative asset allocation would resemble a
constant 45% equities, 45% bonds and 15% T-bill mix. We know from other
analysis that that would result in a total portfolio variance of approximately 8%.
If we optimize, therefore, the portfolio based on the total volatility of 8% but

incorporate our asset mix timing then the new recommended asset allocation is
shown under the “Return Max” column heading (refer to Exhibit 23). In this
case, the Canadian equity allocation remains at 45%, the Canadian bond
exposure would be reduced by 5% and AA Canadian corporate bond exposure
would rise from 0% to 20%. It appears that in order to reduce the variance of
the total portfolio, the optimization system chose to reduce the U.S. equity
exposure to zero in favor of Canadian AA corporates; of course, this assumes
that our targets for the various asset classes are correct. Nonetheless, it
supports our conclusion that, as long as U.S. bond yields remain below the
critical ceiling, a large portion of our expected returns should result from
Canadian equities.
Exhibit 23. Maximize Return For An 8% Maximum Total Portfolio

Variance
25
Recent Performance Since August

2010
We are optimistic about the rate of return for U.S. and Canadian equities, as
long as the Fed can use the magic of quantitative easing to restrict the upward
movement in the 10-year U.S. Treasury. We have a long list of concerns with
respect to exogenous risk factors, which could materially change our outlook for
stocks and bonds in 2011. One of our near-term concerns stems from just how
dramatic the recent gains were from our over-weighted equity exposure while
the under-weighted bond portfolio recorded massive recent losses. Such
significant gains in such a short period of time are cause for concern.
In August 2010, we published our Investment Strategy Committee Prequel asset

mix document, in which we indicated that bond yields were unlikely to fall any
further near term and, in fact, were more likely to rise significantly. This also
supported our decision to remain over-weighted equities in order to capture the
anticipated gains in stock prices while simultaneously avoiding the bond losses.
From August 2010 until recently the TSX rose approximately 15% and the
S&P 500 rose approximately 21%, in local currency terms. Our over-weighted
equities exposure benefited the total portfolio return considerably and we
managed to avoid, entirely, the 5% loss from U.S. bonds that resulted in just
the last four months of 2010 by having no exposure to U.S. bonds in the growth
portfolio.
Our Overall Total Portfolio Returns Relative To Average

Balance Portfolios
Six of our seven investor profiles require that we maintain balanced portfolios of
various degrees, usually requiring that we have some exposure in asset classes
that we, otherwise, would prefer to avoid. The reason for doing so is, generally,
to have some degree of prudent diversification. For example, our relatively
traditional growth portfolio held a 35% exposure to Canadian bonds for the
purpose of improving diversification. Bond losses in the Canadian bond portfolio
were very slight at –0.92% compared with 5% loss from 10-year U.S. Treasury
bonds. By maintaining the correct overweight recommendation for stocks and
correctly underweighting bonds, we generated a significant 434 bps of
outperformance in just four months compared with a fixed 45% equities, 45%
bonds and 10% cash asset mix. Naturally, we would have experienced far
greater returns if we had been all stocks and no bonds but the prudent goal is to
try and correctly adjust asset mix while generally maintaining a balanced
portfolio. Fortunately, our total portfolio returns for the growth investor profile
amounted to 10.78% in a little over a four-month period. This is approximately
434 bps better than a portfolio with a fixed exposure of 45% in equities, 45% in
bonds and 10% in T-bills.
The sheer magnitude of these gains relative to a very conservative asset

allocation, and especially given the significant incremental returns in a very
short period of time, is enough to cause some concern in and of itself. The
combination of the rising bond yields in the U.S. and rising stock prices in the
U.S. and Canada resulted in massive outperformance from equities relative to
bonds. At the risk of being silly, the annualized return from U.S. equities
between August 2010 and the present was approximately 61%, while U.S.
bonds would have lost over 20% on an annualized basis. In fact, the annualized
total growth portfolio returns from August to the present was roughly 27%.
Given that the U.S. equity market has now risen 85% from the 2009 lows and
bond yields have risen from 2.04% to 3.33% during the same timeframe, we
26
are becoming increasingly concerned about how far the North American equity
markets can go from here. As we have stated, repeatedly, therefore, our
optimistic outlook for North American equities, as well as our gold and oil price
targets and our Canadian dollar outlook are extremely dependent on the Fed’s
ability to continue to successfully administer quantitative easing such that it can
keep this stock market recovery intact.
Detailed Targets For 2011

Exhibit 24 provides more detail as to the basis for our 2011 targets. It is our
current view that the TSX aggregate earnings will reach $830 as a result of
further earnings growth in the materials and energy sectors and a slight
recovery in the financial sector during 2011. Based on a 14,800 TSX price target
at year-end, the resulting top-down P/E would be approximately 17.83 times.
Our global portfolio system indicates that the median and bottom-up
weighted-average P/E based on current company prices divided by their
one-year forward operating earnings would be 14.92x and 14x, respectively.
Exhibit 24. 2011 Forecasts

Recent 2011
TSX 13,272 14,800
Earnings 676 830
Top-down P/E (x) 19.6 17.83
Bottom-up GPS P/E Median 17.68 14.92
Weighted Average 19.89 14
Street Fwd P/E (14,800 / 870) - 17.01
Trailing ROE - -
Median 8.98
Weighted Average 12.11
Street Fwd ROE
Median 12.01
Trailing ROE Growth Rate & Fwd (GPS)
Median 0.11 0.02
Weighted Average 0.09 0.01
S&P 500 1271 1384
Earnings 79 88
Top-down P/E (x) 16.1 15.73
Bottom-up GPS P/E Median 16.67 14.95
Street Fwd P/E (1,384 / 90.55) 15.28
Trailing ROE
Median 15.14
Street Fwd ROE
Median 15.04
Trailing ROE Growth Rate & Fwd (GPS)
Median 0.12 0.02
Canada
TSX Yield (market cap weighted) 2.39 2.34
T-Bills (%) 0.95 1.28
10-year Bond Yield (%) 3.34 3.44
U.S.
S&P 500 Yield (market cap weighted) 1.87 1.91
T-Bills (%) 0.16 0.3
10-year Bond Yield (%) 3.33 3.46
WTI Oil (US$/Bbl) 88.03 93-103
Gold (US$/oz.) 1,369 1,580
C$/US$ 1.0065 0.97-1.03
GPS data calculated through our Global Portfolio System
27
It is difficult to reconcile the trailing operating ROE on both the median and
weighted-average basis with the one-year forward Street estimates of ROE. The
one-year forward ROE levels are roughly 200 bps to 300 bps higher than the
current trailing ROE for the TSX. Crucially, this is not the case for the S&P 500
where the ROE levels are considerably higher than the TSX levels at present, but
there is no evidence that the S&P 500 ROE is expected to grow significantly from
here.
It is very difficult in a weak economic environment to make a case for the

S&P 500 ROE growing robustly from the current very high weighted-average
level of 20%. This, too, is a cause for concern. If, however, S&P 500 ROE can
simply maintain the current 20% level then this would imply, at least, a 12%
internal growth rate in book value. If P/BV ratios were constant, this would imply
a 12% rise in the S&P 500 Index price. Since we anticipate some compression in
multiple levels, however, the resulting implied rise in the S&P 500 Index level
should be on the order of 8% or 9%. After adding in an S&P 500 dividend yield
of approximately 2%, we would expect the S&P 500 is capable of posting a 9%
to 10% total return for the year. As long as S&P 500 ROE is stable and bond
yields remain at satisfactory levels then a respectable rate of return is implied.
We would also expect that given the structural characteristics of the TSX and a
number of more favorable economic fundamentals in Canada, our market should
continue to trade at approximately 2 P/E multiple points higher than the
S&P 500. For example, our 1,384 S&P 500 target divided by $88 of earnings
results in a top-down price earnings ratio of 15.73 times. Although S&P 500
aggregate earnings are expected to rise from $79 recently to $88 by year-end
2011, there is little or no evidence of ROE growth. This could change if the U.S.
economy begins to demonstrate evidence of self-sustaining growth and
companies also begin to deploy the massive quantities of cash on their balance
sheets. It would appear, however, that during the next 12 months, we have far
greater potential to witness growth in TSX ROE from much lower levels than
those currently being recorded by the S&P 500.
Conclusion
To summarize, we remain optimistic about the outlook for North American
equities, but it is hard to imagine a time when our view has turned so
significantly on just one factor, namely quantitative easing. We believe that the
U.S. government is still determined to push the U.S. dollar devaluation further if
it can, but it can only do this as long as the 10-year U.S. Treasury remains
below the 3.8% level. All things considered, if we drew parallels with the equity
cycle which spanned the period from October 2002 to mid-2007, and given also
that the U.S. is emerging from recession, 2011 could resemble 2004. The S&P
500 was recording stronger ROE growth at that time and profitability was at
relatively higher levels, but then, as now, the key to sustaining the equity cycle
was the fact that bond yield stayed in the desired range. We believe, therefore,
it would be imprudent to simply set the asset allocation at the beginning of the
year and not consider the possibility of significant changes to the asset mix
throughout this year. This is really the test that the U.S. Federal Reserve faces.
We hope, just as the Fed probably does, that we begin during 2011 to see self-
sustaining growth with stable interest rates similar to 2004.
The equity cycle which began in October 2002 extended through the next five
years, ending in 2007. Other than 1998 and the stock market low of 2009, the
market tended to rise and fall over timeframes of about one-and-a-half to
three-year intervals. The current rally is now about 85% since the market low of
2009, two years ago, and the Fed must find a way of sustaining the economic
expansion and stock market rally for, at least, another two to three years.
Admittedly, its actions are unprecedented, but, so far, the magic of quantitative
easing is working.
28
TOP PICKS OF 2011
29
Company Update
January 17, 2011 Clean Technology
5N Plus, Incorporated
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Shining Bright In The Land Of Cloudy Sky
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target $8.50
VNP-TSX (1/12/11) $7.21 VNP supplies 60%-70% of First Solar's CdTe needs and is expected to
Key Indices: S&P/TSX Smallcap directly benefit from its aggressive expansion plans. First Solar, the global
low-cost producer of solar PV modules and 5N Plus' biggest customer,
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 25.7% expects to expand capacity by 92% by 2012 to 2.74 GW annually.
52-week Range $4.77-$7.35
Shares Outstanding 45.6M
Float 27.0M Shrs 5N Plus is on an aggressive organic growth trajectory. Management expects
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 89,653 to double the top line in the next three years on the back of its new Firebird
Market Capitalization $329.0M facility and a ramp-up in sales to solar customers such as Abound and
Dividend/Div Yield Nil / Nil Calyxo. Full contribution from its Firebird expansion is expected in Q1/F12.
Fiscal Year Ends May
Book Value $2.85 per Shr 5N Plus has $56.7 million in cash and cash equivalents ($1.09 per share) on
2011 ROE (E) 12.0% its balance sheet and generates $15 million-$20 million annually in
LT Debt NA
operating cash flow. We expect the company to continue to use these
Preferred Nil
resources to pursue greenfield expansion and further acquisitions.
Common Equity $130.2M
Convertible Available No
5N Plus is trading at an attractive valuation of 10.6x F2012E FD EPS (ex.
Earnings per Share Current cash), which is at a significant discount to the peer solar group at 16.7x
2010 $0.33A 2012E FD EPS. Our price target of $8.50 is based on 15.0x F2012E FD EPS
2011 $0.37E (ex. cash) and $1.09 in cash per share.
2012 $0.50E
P/E
2010 21.8x
2011 19.4x Stock Price Performance
2012 14.4x
Fully Diluted, Excluding Unusuals
EV/EBITDA
2010A 10.9x
2011E 9.3x
2012E 6.8x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated.
5N Plus develops, produces and recycles high-purity
metals and compounds for electronic and solar CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
applications. 5N Plus draws its name from the 99.999% its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
purity of its products. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.5nplus.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest.
Ian Tharp, CFA Sumeet Mahesh
See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the
1 (416) 594-7296 1 (416) 594-7293
Ian.Tharp@cibc.ca Sumeet.Mahesh@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Reuters, firstcall.com CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com
Shining Bright In The Land Of Cloudy Sky - January 17, 2011
5N Plus Inc. (VNP-TSX) Sector Outperformer

Current Price: $7.21 Ian Tharp, CFA 416-594-7296 ian.tharp@cibc.ca
12- To 18-Month Price Target: $8.50 Sumeet Mahesh, MBA 416-594-7293 sumeet.mahesh@cibc.ca
All Figures in CAD$ millions, except per share data
LTM P/E LTM EBITDA 2011E P/E 2011E EBITDA

Key Multiples Investment Thesis
5N Plus 15.1x 10.4x 14.5x 9.6x 5N Plus develops and produces high-purity metals and compounds for electronic applications
Peers 46.8x 10.3x 38.1x 10.1x and offers related recycling services. 5N Plus focuses on specialty metals such as Te, Cd and
First Solar 17.9x 12.7x 18.0x 12.3x Se and on related compounds such as CdTe and CdSe. 5N Plus products are utilized in a
Operating Performance F2009A F2010A F2011E F2012E number of electronic applications including Thin-Film photovoltaics (PV) and the radiation
detector market. Sales to the solar industry represented 74.4% of total sales in Q2/F2011, the
Return on Equity 18.6% 12.0% 11.8% 13.7% above 70.4% in Q1/F2011 but below 85.2% in Q2/F2010.
Return on Capital Employed 40.2% 24.2% 18.6% 23.2%
Gross Margin 50.7% 45.0% 44.9% 45.0% Through the Firebird acquisition, Management is targeting three main markets: i) the CIGS-
EBITDA Margin 41.3% 32.4% 31.2% 34.4% based thin film solar market, ii) the semiconductor wafer market and iii) the germanium market.
We estimate these markets to be in excess of $380 mln in size with prospects of substantial
Operating Margin 41.5% 29.8% 29.1% 31.7%
future growth. Management indicated that sales into these markets have the potential to
Pre-tax Margin 35.4% 27.3% 27.0% 31.0% double its current annual revenues within the next three years. The recent equity investment in
Net Margin 30.1% 21.4% 20.7% 22.0% Sylarus has further strengthens this effort.
Quality of Earnings F2009A F2010A F2011E F2012E
0.8x 1.1x 0.4x 1.0x 5N Plus continues to be well capitalized .Its favorable cash position should allow for growth
Cash Realization Ratio1
through Greenfield expansions or acquisitions.
P/FCF 43.7x 27.0x -37.7x 20.4x
FCF Yield 2.3% 3.7% -2.7% 4.9%
Implied Tax Rate 29.7% 30.1% 28.6% 29.0%
Interest Coverage 76.2x 113.8x 77.2x 142.4x
Income Statement F2009A F2010A F2011E F2012E Valuation & Outlook
Revenue $69.4 $70.8 $81.6 $104.0 Current Price: $7.21 Rating: SO
Gross Profit $35.2 $31.9 $36.6 $46.8 Price Target: $8.50 Dividend: $0.00
SG&A $5.3 $7.1 $8.3 $8.3 12-18 Mo Return: 17.9% Yield: 0.0%
R&D $1.2 $1.9 $2.9 $2.8 Price Target Represents: F2009A F2010A F2011E F2012E
EBITDA $28.7 $22.9 $25.4 $35.7 P/E: 18.7x 25.6x 23.2x 17.2x
Interest Expense $0.4 $0.2 $0.3 $0.2 P/E (less cash): 15.6x 21.1x 19.8x 13.9x
Depreciation & Amortization $2.2 $2.5 $2.9 $3.8 Enterprise Value: $329.4 $324.2 $339.3 $323.3
EBIT $28.8 $21.1 $23.7 $32.9 EV/EBITDA: 11.5x 14.1x 13.3x 9.0x
Net Income $20.9 $15.1 $16.9 $22.9 EV/Sales: 4.7x 4.6x 4.2x 3.1x
EPS, Diluted (Ex. Unusuals) $ 0.45 $ 0.33 $ 0.37 $ 0.50 P/BV: 3.5x 3.1x 2.7x 2.3x
FD S/O 45.9 45.6 46.1 46.1 FCF Yield: 1.9% 3.1% -2.2% 4.2%
Cash Flow F2009A F2010A F2011E F2012E Chart: Sales, EBITDA & EBITDA margin
Operating cash flow $16.2 $16.8 $7.2 $22.8
$120.0 50%
Capex ($8.7) ($4.6) ($16.0) ($6.5)
Changes in working capital ($6.9) ($3.1) ($13.6) ($4.7) $100.0
40%
Free Cash Flow2 $7.6 $12.2 ($8.8) $16.3
$80.0
FCF per Share $0.17 $0.27 ($0.19) $0.35 30%
Balance Sheet F2009A F2010A F2011E F2012E $60.0
20%
Cash $65.1 $68.0 $57.1 $73.4 $40.0
Total debt $4.5 $4.8 $4.6 $4.6 10%
$20.0
Equity $112.4 $125.7 $143.5 $167.2
Net debt (Cash) ($60.5) ($63.2) ($52.5) ($68.7) $0.0 0%
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
Net debt per share ($1.32) ($1.39) ($1.14) ($1.49)

Net debt/EBITDA -2.1x -2.8x -2.1x -1.9x
Book Value Per Unit (FD) $2.45 $2.76 $3.11 $3.62 Revenues EBITDA EBITDA Margin
1
Calculated as CFO divided by Net Income.
2
Calculated as CFO less Capex
Source: Bloomberg, Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
31
Shining Bright In The Land Of Cloudy Sky - January 17, 2011
Source: CIBC TrendSpotting Matrix, Bloomberg
32
Company Update
January 17, 2011 Oil & Gas - Intermediate & Junior Producers
Angle Energy Inc.

Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Looking Towards Continued Success In Emerging
Sector Weighting:
Central Alberta Viking Play
Market Weight
NGL-TSX (1/12/11) $7.87 Angle Energy is an intermediate-sized E&P company (~13,500 Boe/d
Key Indices: None today). The company's asset base is concentrated in the prolific west central
Alberta area, providing the company with a number of light oil and gas
Projected Total Return 17.5% targets to develop, as well as a solid ability to control cost.
52-week Range $6.71-$9.20
Shares Outstanding* 71.5M
Float 60.4M Shrs The emerging focus for the company has been the Viking light oil play in
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 290,000 Harmattan. Results from the initial five wells have been impressive, with
Market Capitalization $562.7M Angle having up to 195 potential new drilling locations. By 2012, production
Dividend/Div Yield Nil / Nil from this play could reach 5,000 Boe/d of light oil and liquids-rich gas.
Fiscal Year Ends December
P+P RLI (years) 11.5 Angle is also developing a Cardium light oil play (last well tested at over
2011 EV/DACF 7.1X 1,200 Boe/d) and a number of gas resource plays, including the Wilrich,
Net Debt $167.0M
which posted a marked increase in industry activity over 2010.
Net Asset Value $8.35 per Shr
Net Debt/CF 1.5X
Convertible Available No While Angle has better-than-average exposure to multiple high-impact
*Basic developments, its valuation today is at 6.8x 2011E EV/DACF (vs. 7.2x grp)
Cash Flow Per Share Current and at 96% of our Risked NAV (vs. 89% grp). We believe Angle will start to
2009 $0.90A trade at a premium over the year with continued success in the Viking.
2010 $0.93E
2011 $1.39E
P/CF
2009 8.7x
2011 5.7x
DACF ($ mlns.)
2009A $40.4
2010E $65.0
2011E $110.2
EV/DACF
2009 9.9x
2010 11.2x
2011 7.1x Source: Reuters
Angle Energy Inc. is a natural gas-weighted junior E&P
company with operations focused in west central Alberta CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
that was founded in 2004 and went public in 2008. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
www.angleenergy.com/ Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Adam Gill, CFA Mike Woodward, CA
1 (403) 216-3405 1 (403) 216-3404
Adam.Gill@cibc.ca Mike.Woodward@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Looking Towards Continued Success In Emerging Central Alberta Viking Play - January 17, 2011
Angle Energy Inc (NGL - TSX) Sector Outperformer

Current Price: C$7.87 Adam Gill, CFA: (403)-216-3405 / adam.gill@cibc.com
12- To 18- Month Price Target: C$9.25 Mike Woodward, CA: (403)-216-3404 / mike.woodward@cibc.com
Capitalization And Market Statistics Relative Valuation

Share Price $7.87 2010E 2011E
Shares Outstanding 1. 71.5 NGL Group NGL Group
Market Capitalization $563 P/CF 8.2x 9.5x 5.3x 6.2x
Net Debt 2. $167 EV/DACF 11.3x 11.0x 6.8x 7.2x
Enterprise Value $729 EV/Boe/d $75,662 $106,382 $54,085 $74,591
Distribution (Current) / Frequency / Yield n/a EV/Boe - Proven 3. $26.74 $36.76
Average Daily Trading Volume (50 Day) - TSX Only 290,000 EV/Boe - P + P 3. $14.53 $21.08
Core NAV $4.06
Investment Thesis, Key Stock Catalysts and Asset Overview Risked NAV $8.22
Investment Thesis: We have a Sector Outperformer rating on Angle with a 12-18 month P/Risked NAV 96%
target price of $9.25/share as Angle has best in class operating costs (2011E $6.25/Boe vs. P/Risked NAV (Group Average) 89%
group at ~$9.55/Boe), and its asset portfolio has exposure to both high impact natural gas Fiscal Year End December
(Falher/Wilrich) and oil (Viking/Cardium) development opportunities. We also see Angle as a
safe way for investors to get exposure to natural gas given the company's solid operating cost Financial Flexibility ($MM)
and the high liquids content of its gas production. Bankers: CIBC, ATB and BMO 2009A 2010E 2011E
Key Catalysts: Catalyst for Angle include continued drilling success by the company and Cash Flow from Operations $40.2 $60.8 $106.4
industry in the Viking light oil play in Harmattan and Falher/Wilrich tight gas play in Edson. Development Spending 5. $44.3 $187.0 $150.0
Key Assets: Key assets are the Viking drilling inventory of approximately 195 wells in the Total Net Debt at Year-end ($38.3) $163.5 $147.9
Harmattan area, Cardium and Ellerslie rights in Ferrier, and tight gas assets at Edson. Total Debt / CF (Y/E Debt To Year CF) (1.0x) 2.7x 1.4x
Relative Valuation: Angle is currently trading at a Price to Risked NAV ratio of 96% and a Group Average 1.7x 1.5x
2011E EV/DACF multiple of 6.8x (versus the group averages of 89% and 7.2x, respectively). Total Credit Facility - Current $180.0
Our 12-18 month price target of $9.25/share is based on a 1.1x target multiple to our Risked Total Credit Facility Unutilized (% Of Capacity) - Current $73.7 (41%)
NAV of $8.22/share versus the group average of 1.0x.
Reserves Information
Reserve Engineers: GLJ Petroleum Consultants
Year-end 2009 Reserves (MMBoe)
Production Proved Developed Producing 16.2
2009A 2010E 2011E Total Proved (1P) 27.3
Production (Boe/d) Q1 7,645A 8,003A Proved + Probable (2P) 50.2
Q2 7,472A 7,290A PDP % of Total Proved 59%
Q3 7,552A 10,021A Total Proved % of P+P 54%
Q4 7,446A 13,026E 2P Reserve Life - Years 6. 11.5
FY 7,528A 9,600E 14,250E FD&A Cost - P+P (incl. FDC) $16.04
Growth 28% 48% Cash Basis Recycle Ratio (Incl FDC) 7. 1.0x
% Gas 58% 62% 58% * Reserves are updated for acquisitions/divestitures.
Per-Share Growth -11% 31%
Cash Flow Per Share Recent News
2009A 2010E 2011E Jan 6/11 - Announced completion of $60 million public offering of convertible debt
CFPS (Diluted) Q1 $0.24A $0.24A Dec 16/10 - Announced operational update and 13,500 Boe/d production goal
Q2 $0.20A $0.21A Nov 10/10 - Announced completion of $25 million flow-through financing
Q3 $0.18A $0.20A Nov 2/10 - Released Q3/10 results
Q4 $0.27A $0.28E Oct 21/10 - Announced $25 million bough deal equity financing
Diluted $0.90A $0.95E $1.48E Oct 20/10 - Announced operational and reserves update
Growth 6% 55% Management (Ownership: 9.6%)
Name Position Recent Positions
Commodity Assumptions Gregg Fischbuch CEO Brooklyn, Crossfield, TriGas
WTI Oil (US$/Bbl) $61.99 $79.51 $85.00 Heather Christie-Burns President & COOCrossfield, Encal, Fekete
Edmonton Par Oil (C$/Bbl) $66.42 $77.55 $84.54 Stuart Symon VP, Finance & C Lightning, Brooklyn, Avid
Henry Hub Gas (US$/MMcf) $3.94 $4.37 $4.75 Elizabeth More VP, Exploration Flagship, Crossfield, Encal
AECO Gas (C$/MMcf) $3.99 $3.99 $4.35 Glen Richardson VP, Land Yangarra, Penn West, Amoco
Exchange Rate (US$/C$) $0.8768 $0.9707 $0.9700 Matthew Mazuryk VP, Engineering Harvest, Penn West, Sproule
Netback Analysis ($/Boe) Graham Cormack VP, Operations E4 Energy, E3 Energy, Encal
2009A 2010E 2011E Heather Post Controller PwC, KPMG, Barnwell of Canada
Gross Revenue (Net of Trans.) $28.76 $33.75 $39.72
Hedging Gains / (Losses) $0.00 $0.36 $0.00 Directors
Royalties ($7.24) ($7.37) ($9.49) Name Principal Occupation
Operating Costs ($4.49) ($6.00) ($6.25) Edward Muchowski Independent Businessman
Operating Netback $17.03 $20.73 $23.98 John Gareau Independent Businessman
G&A ($2.31) ($2.37) ($2.05) Clarence Chow President, AGS Capital Management
Interest ($0.09) ($1.21) ($1.48) Noralee Bradley Partner, Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP
Cap Tax/Other ($0.01) ($0.05) $0.00 Timothy Dunne CFO, Ret. Oil & Gas
Cash Flow Netback $14.61 $17.11 $20.45 Gregg Fischbuch CEO, Angle Energy
Jacob Roorda President & CEO, Canoe Capital
Notes:
1. Shares O/S based on most recent quarterly balance (adjusted for recent acquisitions and equity issues). 4) Excludes net acquisitions.
2. Net debt includes convertibles and is based on most recent quarterly balance (adj. for recent 5) Equals cash distributions/dividends divided by cash flow.
acquisitions and equity issues). 6) Y/E P+P reserves divided by Q4 annualized production.
3. Enterprise value to reserves (based on current reserves, including acquisitions). 7) Year operating netbacks divided by reported P+P FD&A cost, incl. FDC.
34
Looking Towards Continued Success In Emerging Central Alberta Viking Play - January 17, 2011
Source: CIBC Trendspotting Matrix, Bloomberg.
35
Company Update
January 17, 2011 Energy Equipment & Services
Black Diamond Group Limited

Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Accelerating Oil Sands Development Will Drive
Sector Weighting:
2011 Performance
Market Weight
BDI-TSX (1/12/11) $21.72 Black Diamond is a leading provider of remote workforce accommodation
Key Indices: None and workspace solutions in the WCSB and regionally in the U.S. In our view,
the company is well positioned to benefit from increased capital spending in
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM the Canadian oil sands and from accelerating resource play development.
52-week Range $16.00-$22.02
Float 10.6M Shrs We expect oil sands capital investment to accelerate in the coming years. In
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. NM our view, Black Diamond has developed a strong competitive position in
Market Capitalization $356.6M remote workforce accommodations in the oil sands and is well positioned to
Dividend/Div Yield $1.08 / 4.9% gain additional contracts as future projects are awarded.
Book Value $11.88 per Shr In addition to the recent award of a long-term rental agreement for an 800-
2009 ROE (E) 9.6% person remote accommodation project with Suncor Energy, we would not be
Net Debt $49.7M
surprised to see Black Diamond secure additional oil sands awards in
Preferred Nil
coming months and expand its 2011 capital program.
Black Diamond is trading at 6.4x 2011E EV/EBITDA, 14.2x 2011E EPS and
EBITDA ($ mlns.) Current 6.3x 2011E CFPS, at a slight premium to the average for its peer group. We
2009 $35.4A have a Sector Outperformer rating on the company.
2010 $49.7E
2011 $66.9E
EV/EBITDA
2009 11.4x
2011 6.0x
Cash Flow Per Share

2009 $2.33A
2010 $2.66E
2011 $3.45E
P/CF
2009 9.3x
2010 8.2x
2011 6.3x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated. 10-106661 © 2010
Black Diamond Group Limited is a provider of remote
workforce accommodation services and work space CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
solutions throughout the WCSB and regionally in the its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
U.S. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.blackdiamondlimited.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Jeff Fetterly, CFA Jon Morrison
1 (403) 216-3400 1 (403) 216-3402
Jeff.Fetterly@cibc.ca Jon.Morrison@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Accelerating Oil Sands Development Will Drive 2011 Performance - January 17, 2011
Black Diamond Group (BDI-SO) Sector Outperformer

Current Share Price: $21.72 Jeff Fetterly, CFA | (403) 216 - 3400 | jeff.fetterly@cibc.ca
12-18 Month Target Price: $24.00 Jon Morrison | (403) 216 - 3402 | jon.morrison@cibc.ca
All figures in C$ millions except per share data
Segmented Revenue Breakdown Company Description

2008 2009 2010E 2011E Black Diamond Group is an established provider of remote
Workforce Accommodations $43.4 $45.9 $79.0 $101.8 workforce accommodation services and work space solutions
Space Rentals $20.5 $13.7 $40.5 $49.0 throughout the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) and
regionally in the U.S. The company has three business segments,
Energy Services $9.7 $15.4 $17.2 $19.6
Workforce Accommodations, Space Rentals, and Energy Services.
Total $73.6 $75.0 $136.7 $170.3
Key Financial Metrics Investment Thesis

2008 2009 2010E 2011E Black Diamond has established itself as one of the leading
EV/EBITDA 8.8x 9.2x 8.6x 6.4x remote accommodation providers. In our view, the company
P/CF 8.3x 9.3x 8.2x 6.3x offers several key attributes for oilfield services investing,
P/E (1) 13.2x 15.8x 20.6x 14.2x including: (1) exposure to a business and competitive landscape
BVPS $10.08 $11.25 $11.94 $12.40 with attractive fundamentals; (2) a proven management team
P/Book 2.2x 1.9x 1.8x 1.8x that has extensive experience operating within its business; and
ROE 20.1% 15.1% 9.6% 13.1% (3) a robust and visible pipeline of growth opportunities.
ROIC 16.0% 12.3% 8.0% 10.6%
Income Statement Chart 1: Revenue By Geographic Segment (2010E)

2008 2009 2010E 2011E
Revenue $73.6 $75.0 $136.7 $170.3
EBITDA $34.4 $35.4 $49.7 $66.9 Space Rentals
Depreciation & Amortization $10.0 $14.6 $21.2 $25.1 30%
EBIT $24.4 $20.8 $28.4 $41.8

Workforce
Net Interest Expense $1.5 $1.6 $2.6 $4.8 Accommodations
Tax Expense (Recovery) $2.4 ($0.4) $7.9 $10.8 57%
Net Income (1) $20.4 $19.7 $18.0 $26.3 Energy Services
(2) 13%
EPS (fd) $1.65 $1.37 $1.05 $1.53
Distribution Analysis Key Operating Statistics (Current Quarter)

2008 2009 2010E 2011E Reported %
Dividends Per Share $1.23 $0.95 $1.06 $1.14 Q3/10 Q3/09 Y/Y
Cash Flow Analysis Total Revenue $31.2 $16.7 87%

Cash Flow from Operations $32.8 $33.9 $46.1 $59.8
Less: Maintenance Capital ($1.5) ($3.0) ($4.0) ($5.0) Gross Margin $17.7 $10.8 65%
Distributable (Free) Cash Flow $31.3 $30.9 $42.1 $54.8 Gross Margin % 57% 64%
Dividends Paid Out $10.4 $12.8 $17.6 $18.7 EBITDA (1) $12.4 $7.8 60%
EBITDA % 40% 47%
CFPS (fd) $2.63 $2.33 $2.66 $3.45
Distributable CFPS (fd) $2.51 $2.13 $2.43 $3.16 Cash Flow From Operations $11.6 $7.4 57%
(2)
CFPS (fd) $0.67 $0.58
Payout Ratios
Dividends / Cash Flow 32% 38% 38% 31% EPS (fd) (2) $0.26 $0.20 31%
Dividends / Free CF 33% 41% 42% 34%
(1) Adjusted for stock-based compensation and one-time items.

(2) Based on adjusted fully diluted figures.
37
Accelerating Oil Sands Development Will Drive 2011 Performance - January 17, 2011
Source: CIBC TrendSpotting Matrix, Bloomberg.
38
Company Update
January 17, 2011 Aerospace & Defense
Bombardier Inc.
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Bombardier Aircraft Orders Starting To Pick Up;
Sector Weighting:
CSeries Risk Well Priced In
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target C$7.00
BBD.B-TSX (1/12/11) C$5.39 BBD has two reportable manufacturing segments: Aerospace (Business
Key Indices: Toronto Aircraft, Commercial Aircraft, Specialized and Amphibious Aircraft, Customer
Services and Flexjet/Skyjet) and Transportation (Rolling Stock, Services,
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 26.5% Systems and Signaling for the rail public transit sector).
52-week Range C$4.25-C$6.24
Shares Outstanding 1,728.0M
Float 1,459.0M Shrs Order activity at BA has picked up in recent weeks. So far in Q4/F11, BA
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 5,763,674 has received orders for 15 business jets and 15 commercial aircraft. If the
Market Capitalization $9,446.2M business jet operations can return to a book-to-bill ratio of 1:1 in Q1/F12,
Dividend/Div Yield C$0.10 / 1.9% investors should start to generate strong interest in the stock once again.
Fiscal Year Ends January
Book Value $2.29 per Shr Continued strength in emerging market economies (particularly China and
2010 ROE (E) 15.7% the Middle East) is resulting in strong international demand for long-range
Net Debt $1,481.0M
business jets. BA is well positioned to benefit from this, as the large
Preferred $347.00M
business jet market represents approximately 80% of its business jet sales.
Common Equity $3,991.0M
BBD remains optimistic about order activity and execution of the CSeries
Earnings Per Share Current launch. Industry surveys continue to suggest favorable demand for the
2010 $0.39A CSeries over the next few years. Our C$7.00 price target is based on
2011 $0.37E C$3.30 for BT, C$2.50 for BA and C$1.20 for the CSeries.
2012 $0.41E
P/E
2010 14.0x
2012 13.3x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in US dollars, unless otherwise stated.(C$0.986:US$1)
Bombardier Inc. is an internationally diversified
manufacturer supplying aerospace and rail CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
transportation equipment and services. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
www.bombardier.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Michael Willemse, CFA David Galison
1 (416) 594-7285 1 (416) 956-3548
Michael.Willemse@cibc.ca David.Galison@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Bombardier Aircraft Orders Starting To Pick Up; CSeries Risk Well Priced In - January 17, 2011
Bombardier (BBD.B-TSX) Sector Outperformer

Current Price: C$5.39 Michael Willemse, CFA 416-594-7285 michael.willemse@cibc.ca
12- To 18-Month Price Target: C$7.00 David Galison, MBA 416-956-3548 david.galison@cibc.ca
All Figures in USD$ millions, except per share data unless otherwise stated USD:CAD 0.9852 12-Jan-11
F2011E F2012E
Key Multiples F2011E P/E EBITDA F2012E P/E EBITDA Investment Thesis
Bombardier 14.7x 9.6x 13.2x 8.3x Bombardier has two reportable manufacturing segments, Aerospace (Business Aircraft, Commercial
Aerospace Companies 15.5x 9.7x 17.5x 8.0x Aircraft, Specialized and Amphibious Aircraft, Customer Services and Flexjet/Skyjet) and
Diversified Manufacturers 13.5x 9.4x 12.1x 8.7x Transportation (Rolling Stock, Services, Systems and Signaling). Management intends to maintain a
diversified product strategy with a continued focus on the rail and aerospace markets.
Transportation Companies 12.7x 7.5x 11.8x 7.0x
Historical P/ 1yr EPS 12.8x Aerospace: the major growth driver for regional jets beyond F2013 will be reflected by demand from
the CSeries. We expect that business jet demand will begin to recover in calendar 2011, albeit at a
Historical EV/TTM EBITDA 6.4x
moderate rate. Growth for business jets beyond F2013 will likely benefit from the introduction of the
Operating Performance F2010 A F2011 E F2012 E F2013 E Learjet 85.
Return on Equity 18.5% 15.7% 15.0% 17.2%
Return on Capital Employed 23.2% 17.7% 16.6% 18.7% Transportation has been somewhat sheltered from the economic downturn, given that large-scale
transit infrastructure is typically funded by the public sector. BA has been negatively impacted by
EBITDA Margin 8.1% 8.0% 8.3% 9.4%
cyclical swings in the aerospace sector. However, Bombardier's diversification strategy has allowed
EBIT Margin 5.7% 5.8% 6.2% 7.4%
the company to offset weakness in one area with other segments that have a more stable growth
EBT Margin 4.7% 4.8% 5.1% 6.4% and demand profile. Bombardier is actively seeking to grow by providing new products in the
Net Margin 3.6% 3.7% 3.7% 4.4% company’s traditional markets (North America and Europe) as well as through an increased focus on
emerging markets such as Asia.
Quality of Earnings F2010 A F2011 E F2012 E F2013 E
Cash Realization Ratio1 0.8x 1.2x 1.8x 1.5x
P/FCF 21.1x 69.4x 57.6x 16.9x
FCF Yield 4.7% 1.4% 1.7% 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 22.7% 21.4% 27.5% 28.0%
Interest Coverage 3.9x 4.0x 4.3x 5.6x Deliveries (units) F2010 A F2011 E F2012 E F2013 E
Income Statement F2010 A F2011 E F2012 E F2013 E Business Aircraft 176 149 152 183
Revenue - Consolidated $19,366.0 $17,663.1 $19,460.5 $21,565.3 Commercial Aircraft 121 97 94 105
Gross Profit $3,164.0 $2,980.5 $3,269.9 $3,842.4 Amphibious Aircraft 5 5 5 5
EBITDA $1,570.0 $1,405.7 $1,621.2 $2,020.9 * Current Backlog - Aerospace $16.2 Q3/F11 A
EBIT $1,098.0 $1,017.2 $1,215.2 $1,604.9 *Current Backlog - Transportation $32.7 Q3/F11 A
EBT $915.0 $845.2 $994.2 $1,380.5 *US$ bln
Minority Interest $9.0 $9.0 $8.0 $8.0 Valuation & Outlook
Net Income - Cont. Oper. $698.0 $655.2 $712.8 $958.4 Current Price: C$5.39 Rating: SO
FD EPS, (Ex. Unusuals) $0.39 $0.37 $0.41 $0.55 Price Target: C$7.00
FD S/O 1,755 1,743 1,743 1,743 12-18 Mo Return: 29.9%
Price Target Represents: F2011 E F2012 E F2013 E
Cash Flow F2010 A F2011 E F2012 E F2013 E P/E: 19.3x 17.4x 12.9x
Operating cash flow (ex WC) $1,223.0 $1,175.2 $1,336.8 $1,666.9 Enterprise Value: C$13,442 C$13,442 C$13,442
Capex ($767.0) ($1,037.7) ($1,171.3) ($1,103.6) EV/EBITDA: 10.0x 9.0x 7.1x
Working Capital Investments ($671.0) ($365.3) ($42.5) ($216.6) EV/Sales: 0.8x 0.7x 0.6x
Free Cash Flow2 $456.0 $137.5 $165.5 $563.3 P/BV: 3.0x 2.6x 2.2x
FCF per Share $0.26 $0.08 $0.09 $0.32 FCF Yield: 1.1% 1.3% 4.5%
Balance Sheet F2010 A F2011 E F2012 E F2013 E Consolidated Chart
Cash And Equivalents $4,054.0 $3,653.9 $3,596.9 $3,763.6 $2,500 12%
Total debt $4,162.0 $4,824.0 $5,304.0 $5,304.0 10%
$2,000
Equity $3,769.0 $4,175.2 $4,751.9 $5,574.3
8%
Minority Interest $68.0 $66.0 $66.0 $66.0 $1,500
6%
Preferred Value $347.0 $346.0 $346.0 $346.0 $1,000
4%
Net debt (Cash) $176.0 $1,236.1 $1,773.1 $1,606.4
$500 2%
Net debt per share $0.10 $0.71 $1.02 $0.92
$0 0%
Net debt/EBITDA 0.1x 0.9x 1.1x 0.8x
F2005 A
F2006 A
F2007 A
F2008 A
F2009 A
F2010 A
F2011 E
F2012 E
F2013 E
Book Value Per Unit (FD) $2.15 $2.40 $2.73 $3.20

1
Calculated as CFO divided by Net Income. 2 Calculated as CFO less Capex EBITDA EBIT
Source: Bloomberg, Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc. EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin
*Bombardier Fiscal Years Ending January 31. Fiscal 2011 = Calendar 2010 for comparative purposes.
40
Bombardier Aircraft Orders Starting To Pick Up; CSeries Risk Well Priced In - January 17, 2011
41
Company Update
January 17, 2011 Oil & Gas - International E & P
C&C Energia Ltd.

Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
The Right Ingredients For Success
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
CZE-TSX (1/12/11) C$11.90 We recently initiated coverage of C&C Energia with a Sector Outperformer
Key Indices: TSXOilGas rating and now have a 12- to 18-month price target of C$15.75. In our
view, CZE is relatively undervalued considering the magnitude of its
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM upcoming exploration program.
52-week Range C$6.70-C$12.73
Float 29.0M Shrs CZE's operations are focused in the Llanos, Middle Magdalena and
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 65,021 Putumayo basins of Colombia. The company has a 77% average working
Market Capitalization $656.0M interest in 766,514 gross acres in nine E&P blocks and produces ~7,000
Dividend/Div Yield Nil / Nil Bbls/d from two of its four Llanos Basin blocks.
Net Asset Value $15.85 per Shr CZE has identified 30 prospects and leads and plans to drill 15 exploration
2011 ROE (E) NM wells in 2011. It approved a 2011 capital investment budget of $130 million
Net Cash $69.53M
to $145 million. Management expects that 2011 production will range from
Preferred Nil
7,000 Bbls/d-7,300 Bbls/d from the Cravoviejo and Cachicamo blocks.
Common Equity NM
Our base NAV estimate for CZE, including development of the producing
Cash Flow Per Share Current assets, is C$7.17/FD share. We have also included C$8.68/FD share in
2010 $1.56E risked upside (C$20.23/FD share unrisked), which could be realized from
2011 $1.87E 2011 exploration drilling, bringing our price target to C$15.75.
2012 $1.69E
P/CF
2010 7.7x
2012 7.1x
Source: Reuters
C&C Energia Ltd. is an independent oil and gas
company engaged in the exploration, acquisition, CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
development and production of oil resources in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
Colombia. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.ccenergialtd.com/ Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Ian Macqueen, P.Geol. Paul Nielsen
1 (403) 260-8675 1 (403) 216-3403
Ian.Macqueen@cibc.ca Paul.Nielsen@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
The Right Ingredients For Success - January 17, 2011
C&C Energy Ltd. (CZE-TSX-V) Sector Outperformer

Current Price: C$11.90
Price Target: C$15.75 Analyst: Ian Macqueen, P.Geol. Ph: (403) 260-8675 E-mail: Ian.Macqueen@cibc.ca
Target Return: 32.4% Associate: Paul Nielsen, Ph: (403) 216-3403 E-mail: Paul.Nielsen@cibc.ca
Financial Statistics And Current Valuation 2010E Net Asset Valuation - 2009
Share Price ($) C$11.90 Total Risked Asset Value C$936
Weighted Average Diluted Shares O/S 50 Total Risked NAVPS - 10% C$15.85
Market Capitalization - $M C$593 P/NAVPS (Risked) 75%
Net Debt - $mm (C$57) Target P/NAVPS (Risked) 99%
Enterprise Value - $M C$536 Total Unrisked Asset Value C$1,618
Float - mm 29 Total Unrisked NAVPS - 10% C$27.40
Average Trading Volume (50 Day) 65,021 P/NAVPS (Unrisked) 43%
Annual Dividend / Yield C$0.00 / 0.0% Target P/NAVPS (UnRisked) 57%
CIBC Deck 2010E 2011E 2012E

NYMEX WTI (US$/bbl) $79.51 $85.00 $85.00
NYMEX Gas (US$/mcf) $4.37 $4.50 $4.50
FX (US$/C$) $0.97 $0.97 $0.97
Operating Statistics 2010E 2011E 2012E

Colombian Natural Gas Production - - -
Natural Gas (mmcf/d before royalties) - - -
Colombian Oil Production 5,842 7,541 6,352
Oil & Liquids (bbl/d before royalties) 5,842 7,541 6,352
Production (mboe/d before royalties) 5.8 7.5 6.4
Natural Gas % 0% 0% 0%
Production Per Share (boe/d per MM FD) 117 151 128
Production Growth Per Share - % nmf 29% (16%)
Production Per Share (boe/d per MM FD) - Debt Adjusted 130 167 141
Financial Statistics - $mm (except per share values) 2010E 2011E 2012E
Colombia EBITDA $81 $120 $111
Total EBITDA $81 $120 $111
Total Company Operating Cash Flow (US$mm) $78 $102 $92
CFPS (Diluted) $1.56 $1.87 $1.69
Operating Income $32 $39 $39
Operating EPS (Diluted) $0.64 $0.72 $0.72
Net Capex $83 $145 $150
Net Capex/Cash Flow - % 107% 143% 163%
Free Cash Flow ($5) ($43) ($58)
Debt Analysis 2010E 2011E 2012E

Net Debt - $mm ($56) ($13) $45
Net Debt/Cash Flow (0.7x) (0.1x) 0.5x
Net Debt/EV (0.1x) (0.0x) 0.1x
Valuation 2010E 2011E 2012E

EV / DACF 7.0x 6.3x 7.6x
Target EV / DACF 9.5x 8.4x 9.9x
P/CFPS 7.7x 6.5x 7.1x
Target P / CFPS 10.2x 8.6x 9.4x
43
Company Update
January 17, 2011 Transportation
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited

Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Rail With Option Value
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
CP-TSX (1/12/11) $66.25 While we are bullish on rails in general as a long-term investment trend, CP
Key Indices: Toronto is our top pick given its leverage to bulk commodities (i.e., metallurgical
coal, potash) and the option value associated with its operating ratio.
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 12.5%
52-week Range $49.58-$67.50
Shares Outstanding 168.8M CP remains the railway with the best opportunity to improve its operating
Float 168.6M Shrs performance. It is targeting an operating ratio in the low 70% range within
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 661,115 the next three to five years (from high 70%s currently). We estimate that
Market Capitalization $11,184.9M every 1-point change in operating ratio is equivalent to $0.15-$0.20 in EPS.
Dividend/Div Yield $1.08 / 1.6%
Fiscal Year Ends December With ~20% of CP's 2011 capital program focused on growth initiatives, we
Book Value $30.04 per Shr believe the company is well positioned to take advantage of the second leg-
2011 ROE (E) 11.7% up in rail volumes as North American-centric cargo, such as building
LT Debt $4,389.0M
materials, forestry and automotive, continues to play catch-up.
Preferred Nil
Convertible Available No The diminishing risk of re-regulation in the rail industry bodes well for CP
(and the railroad industry). There were concerns in 2010 about increased
Earnings Per Share Current regulatory oversight of the rail industry as shippers looked to reduce freight
2010 $3.81E rates.
2011 $4.41E
2012 $5.03E
P/E
2010 17.4x
2012 13.2x
Source: Reuters
CP is one of two Canadian Class 1 railways and has a
bulk freight orientation. It provides freight services CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
across Canada from Montreal to Vancouver and into key its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
centers in the US Midwest & Northeast. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.cpr.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Jacob Bout, CFA Kevin Chiang
1 (416) 956-6766 1 (416) 594-7198
Jacob.Bout@cibc.ca Kevin.Chiang@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Rail With Option Value - January 17, 2011
Canadian Pacific (CP-TSX, CP-NYSE) Sector Outperformer

Current Price: C$66.25 Jacob Bout (416) 956-6766 jacob.bout@cibc.ca
12- To 18-Month Price Target: C$78.00
All figures in $ millions, except per share data
Company Profile
Share Price $66.25 Canadian Pacific Railway Company (CP) is one of seven Class 1 North American railroads and the second
52 Week High $67.50 largest in Canada. The company owns approximately 10,800 miles of track. An additional 4,700 miles of
52 Week Low $49.58 track are owned jointly, leased or operated under trackage rights. Of the total mileage operated,
Shares Outstanding (Mln) 169 approximately 6,300 miles are located in Western Canada, 2,200 miles in Eastern Canada, 5,800 miles in
the U.S. Midwest and 1,200 miles in the U.S. Northeast.
Market Capitalization ($ Bln) $11.2
CP’s railway feeds directly into the U.S. from the East and West Coasts. Agreements with other carriers
Key Multiples 2010E 2011E 2012E extend its market reach east of Montreal in Canada, through the U.S. and into Mexico. CP transports bulk
CP P/E 17.4x 15.0x 13.1x commodities, merchandise freight and intermodal traffic.
Peer P/E 32.7x 17.0x 14.2x
CP P/CF 21.0x 8.2x 7.5x

2009A Sales Breakdown
Peer P/CF 10.8x 8.9x 7.9x
CP EV/EBITDA 9.6x 8.4x 7.6x Forestry

Peer EV/EBITDA 10.4x 8.1x 7.3x Coal Sulphur & Fertilizer 4%
10% 7% Industrial Products
Operating Ratios 2010E 2011E 2012E 18%
Operating Ratio 77.4% 76.1% 75.2% Automotive
Return On Equity 12% 11% 12% 5%
Current Ratio 0.92 1.21 1.81 Grain Intermodal
Quick Ratio 0.73 1.01 1.61 27% 29%
LT Debt/Total Capitalization 45% 37% 34%
Dividend Yield 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
Income Statement 2010E 2011E 2012E Investment Thesis

Sales 4,973 5,314 5,599 Focus On Cost Cutting And Improving Operating Efficiency: CP is considered the Class 1 with the
EBITDA From Operations 1,619 1,768 1,882 most opportunity for improvement in operating ratio (it has the highest operating ratio amongst the major
Earnings From Operations 645 746 852 Class 1s). We estimate that every 1-point improvement in CP's operating ratio adds ~$0.15-$0.20 in EPS.
FD EPS From Operations $3.81 $4.41 $5.03 CP is targeting an operating ratio in the low 70% range.
Cash Flow 2010E 2011E 2012E DM&E: Expect EBITDA to double from $100 million to $200 million in five years.
CFPS $3.15 $8.07 $8.80
Deregulation Of Canadian Grain: Ability to increase “turn” – grain handlers on side.
FCFPS -$1.26 $2.16 $4.07
Potash: Risk of Canpotex diversifying potash contract post-2012 (CP currently the exclusive shipper for
Balance Sheet Q3/10
Canpotex).
Cash + ST Investments 268
Current Assets 1,084 Pension: Pension expense will be headwind over the next three to four years.
PP&E 11,957
Total Assets 13,531 Met Coal - 10-year agreement with Teck provides increased stability in the coal division.
Current Liabilities 1,080
LT Debt 4,389
Total Liabilities 8,459
Shareholders' Equity 5,072
Operating Ratio Return On Invested Capital (ROIC)
84% 16%
82%
80% 12%
78%
76%
74% 8%
72%
70%
4%
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
45
Rail With Option Value - January 17, 2011
46
Company Update
January 17, 2011 Real Estate
Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT

Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Leverage To Recovering Occupancy, Discount
Sector Weighting:
Valuation Present Unique Appeal
Overweight
CSH.UN-TSX (1/12/11) $8.09 Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT owns and operates almost 24,000 seniors
Key Indices: None housing suites across Canada (~69%) and the U.S. (~31%). Chartwell
focuses primarily on the lighter-care formats of independent supportive
3-5-Yr. AFFO Gr. Rate NA living (57%) and assisted living (23%), with the remainder nursing care.
52-week Range $6.16-$9.65
Units Outstanding 144.6M
Float 140.2M Units Chartwell's current occupancy and income generation are below historical
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 250,000 rates, following credit crisis-driven pressure on the lighter-care retirement
Market Capitalization $1,169.8M operating fundamentals over the past few years. We expect Chartwell could
Distribution/Distr. Yield $0.54 / 6.7% achieve a recovery of as much as 200 basis points of occupancy in 2011.
Net Asset Value $7.50 per Unit Chartwell trades at 11.6x 2011E AFFO, well below its large-cap Canadian
2011 RETURNS REIT peer average of 14.6x, and trades at an implied 7.8% cap rate on
LT Debt $1,730.3M
current (in our view depressed) NOI. Our 12- to 18-month price target is
Preferred Nil
$9.75 or 13.0x-13.5x 2011E FFO, implying a total return of 27%.
Convertible Available Yes
We expect recovering occupancy (for CSH and the broader industry),
FFO Per Share Current increased investor demand and declining cap rates for seniors housing
2009 $0.61A property, and strong growth in FFO, AFFO and NAV could drive Chartwell
2010 $0.63E units higher in 2011. We rate Chartwell REIT Sector Outperformer.
2011 $0.74E
P/FFO
2009 13.3x
2011 10.9x
AFFO Per Share

2009 $0.69A
2010 $0.59E
2011 $0.70E
P/AFFO
2009 11.7x
2010 13.7x
2011 11.6x
Source: Reuters
Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT owns and operates a
large primarily retirement home focused seniors housing CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
portfolio in both Canada and the U.S. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
www.chartwellreit.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Alex Avery, CFA, MRICS Brad Sturges, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-8179 1 (416) 594-7399 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Alex.Avery@cibc.ca Brad.Sturges@cibc.ca
Troy MacLean, CFA Chris Girard, CFA
1 (416) 956-3643 (416) 956-3807
Troy.Maclean@cibc.ca Chris.Girard@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Leverage To Recovering Occupancy, Discount Valuation Present Unique Appeal - January 17, 2011
Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT (CSH.UN-TSX) Alex Avery, CFA

Stock Rating: Sector Outperformer 12 - 18 month Price Target: $9.75 Per Unit Brad Sturges, CFA
Sector Weighting: Overweight Unit Price - (1/12/2011): $8.09 Per Unit Troy MacLean, CFA
Market Capitalization ($ mlns): $1,169.5 Current Yield: 6.7% Chris Girard, CFA
PRICE TARGET CALCULATION & NAV COMPANY DESCRIPTION

CIBC 2011E FFO: $0.74 Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT owns and operates a large (~24,000 suite) primarily retirement home focused
Target Multiple (2011E FFO): 13.0x-13.5X seniors housing portfolio in both Canada (accounting for ~69% of suites) and the U.S. (~31%).
CIBC Price Target: $9.75
Implied 12-18 Month Total Return: 27%
CIBC NAV(E): $7.50 STRATEGY
Premium/(Discount) To NAV: 8% Chartwell is focusing on maximizing returns from its existing portfolio, where occupancy has eroded. The REIT is
Cap Rate: 8.00% also considering acquisition growth in Canada moreso than in the U.S. Future acquisitions are likely to be one-off,
in-fill purchases, rather than large portfolios of properties, and the REIT may sell retirement homes in non-core
markets, concentrating on Ontario, Quebec, Alberta and B.C. Chartwell is winding down its joint-venture and
TOTAL RETURN
mezzanine lending relationships with Spectrum, Melior and others, in the future engaging in development activity
2008 2009 2010 YTD for its own account.
Price Return (52.4%) 30.2% 15.1%
Yield 0.0% 0.0% n/a
Total (52.4%) 30.2% 15.1% INVESTMENT THESIS: SECTOR OUTPERFORMER
ATTRACTIVE FULLY-COVERED YIELD: CSH yields 6.7%, fully-covered by 2011E AFFO of $0.70.
REIT MANAGEMENT OCCUPANCY RECOVERY POTENTIAL: A partial recovery in overall same-property occupancies (towards
W. Brent Binions - President and CEO historical 93% range) in 2010 & 2011 is expected (mainly in Cdn retirement and the U.S.), which could drive
Vlad Volodarski - Chief Financial Officer considerable growth in FFO and AFFO into 2012 and beyond.
Richard J. Noonan - Chief Operating Officer RESOLUTION OF LEGACY STRUCTURES: The REIT has made considerable progress working through legacy
www.chartwellreit.ca partnerships, which should be substantially resolved in 2011.
EARNINGS SUMMARY VALUATION MULTIPLES

Financial Metric 2009A 2010E 2011E FFO MULTIPLES 2009A 2010E 2011E
Funds From Operations $0.61 $0.63 $0.74 Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT 13.3x 12.8x 10.9x
YoY Change (22.8%) 3.3% 17.5%
AFFO MULTIPLES 2009A 2010E 2011E
Adjusted FFO $0.69 $0.59 $0.70 Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT 11.7x 13.7x 11.6x
YoY Change (4.2%) (14.5% ) 18.6%
DEBT MATURITY & LIQUIDITY PROFILE (at Q3/10) LEVERAGE SUMMARY

Mlns 2010 2011 2012 LEVERAGE SUMMARY Q3/10 Q3/09 Lim it
Mortgages $64.8 $115.1 $175.5 EBITDA Interest Coverage: 1.7x 1.8x
Convertible Debentures $0.0 $124.9 * $75.0 D/GBV (w/o convertible debt): 55.2% 54.7% 60.0%
Credit Facilities $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 D/GBV (with convertible debt): 61.3% 61.4% 65.0%
Total $64.8 $240.0 $250.5
Weighted Avg Interest Rate: 5.5% CONVERTIBLE DEBENTURES (at Q3/10)
Issue Interest Rate Am ount Conversion Maturity
Cash & Equivalents $14.9 5.9% Series 5.9% $75.0 $16.25 May 1/12
* $124.9 million of the 2011
Undrawn Credit Facilities $72.9 convertible debentures will be
Total $87.8 redeemed in December 2010.
COMPOSITION OF PORTFOLIO OF OWNED & LEASED SUITES (at Q3/10)
Same-property Net Operating Income (NOI)
Q3/10 Q3/09 Change Level of Care Geographic Location
U.S. LTC NOI (US$) $9,717 $10,571 (8.1%)
Cdn Retirement NOI (Cdn $) $26,498 $25,756 2.9% Independent
Supportive
Cdn LTC NOI (Cdn $) $3,194 $3,401 (6.1%) Assisted
Living, 57.0% BC, 7.0%
Total NOI (Local $) $39,409 $39,744 (0.8%) Living, 23.0% Alberta,
3.0% Ontario,
SAME-PROPERTY OCCUPANCY 39.0%
Segment Q3/10 Q3/09 Change
Canadian Retirement 89.7% 89.2% 50 bps
Canadian Long-Term Care 97.9% 98.1% -20 bps USA,
26.0%
U.S. Operations 88.9% 89.1% -20 bps
OCCUPANCY HISTORY (SAME-PROPERTY)

Long-Term
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Quebec,
Care, 20.0%
2010 90.3% 90.0% 90.4% n/a 25.0%
2009 91.4% 90.1% 90.1% 91.2%
2008 93.7% 93.4% 93.2% 93.3%
Source: Company reports, ThomsonOne and CIBC World Markets Inc
48
Leverage To Recovering Occupancy, Discount Valuation Present Unique Appeal - January 17, 2011
49
Company Update
January 17, 2011 Oil & Gas Royalty Trusts/Dividend Corporations
Daylight Energy Ltd.

Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
A&D Execution Key To Refocused Asset Base
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
DAY-TSX (1/12/11) $9.81 We believe shares of Daylight represent excellent value at current levels. In
Key Indices: S&P/TSX Energy Trust, S&P/TSX addition, we would highlight Daylight as an excellent way to play natural
Income Trust Composite gas defensively, as we believe that investors are currently paying for little
Projected Total Return 36.0% or none of Daylight's significant natural gas resource potential.
52-week Range $8.40-$11.68
Distr. Frequency $0.05 Monthly Potential near-term catalysts include year-end results/reserve reporting
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 1,240,000 (expected in early March). We would also highlight the possibility of
Market Capitalization $2,049.3M Daylight striking a joint venture at Elmworth (AB) to develop its natural gas
Dividend/Div Yield $0.60 / 6.1% resource plays.
P+P RLI (years) 11.0 Key assets include Daylight's Cardium tight oil at Pembina (AB) and its
2011 EV/DACF 6.5X natural gas resource plays at Elmworth (AB), which is prospective for the
Net Debt $665.1M
Nikanassin, Cadomin, Montney, and Bluesky formations. Other notable
assets include its Belly River light oil play at Pembina (AB).
Net Debt/CF 1.7X
Our price target of $13.50/sh is based on a 1.1x target multiple to our
Cash Flow Per Share Current Risked NAV (vs. the average of 1.1x). Daylight trades at a P/Risked NAV of
2009 $1.76A 76% and a 2011E EV/DACF multiple of 6.5x (vs. averages of 94% and 9.1x)
2010 $1.46E with a 6.1% yield (vs. the average of 5.3%).
2011 $1.82E
P/CF
2009 5.6x
2011 5.4x
Cash Dividend Per Share

2009 $0.96A
2010 $0.72E
2011 $0.60E
Cash-on-Cash Yield
2009 9.8%
2010 7.3%
2011 6.1%
Source: Reuters
Daylight Energy Ltd. converted from a trust to a
dividend-paying corporation on May 7, 2010. CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
www.daylightenergy.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Jeremy Kaliel Diana Chaw investment decision.
Jeremy.Kaliel@cibc.ca Diana.Chaw@cibc.ca
Jeff (Sizhuo) Shen
1 (403) 221-5047
jeff.shen@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
A&D Execution Key To Refocused Asset Base - January 17, 2011
Daylight Energy Ltd. (DAY - TSX) Sector Outperformer

Current Price: C$9.81 Shares O/S(1): $208.9MM Jeremy Kaliel, MBA (403-260-8657) Jeremy.Kaliel@cibc.ca
12 To 18 Month Price Target: C$13.50 Market Cap.: $2,050MM Diana Chaw (403-216-8518) Diana.Chaw@cibc.ca
Dividend (NTM) / Freq. / Yield: $0.6 / mthly / 6.1% Average Trading Vol (50 day): 1,230,000 Jeff Shen (403-221-5047) Jeff.Shen@cibc.ca
SUMMARY & INVESTMENT THESIS PROPERTY OVERVIEW
Investment Thesis: We have a Sector Outperformer rating on Daylight Energy Ltd. with a 12-18 month price
target of $13.50/share. We believe shares of Daylight represent excellent value at current levels. In addition
we would highlight Daylight as excellent way to play natural gas defensively, as we believe that investors are
currently paying for little or none of Daylight's significant natural gas resource potential.
Potential Catalysts: Potential near term catalysts include year-end results/reserve reporting (expected in
early March). We would also highlight the possibility of Daylight striking a joint venture at Elmworth (AB) to
develop is natural gas resource plays.
Key Assets: Key assets include Daylight's Cardium tight oil at Pembina (AB), and its natural gas resource
plays at Elmworth (AB) which is prospective for the Nikanassin, Cadomin, Montney, and Bluesky formations.
Other notable assets include its and Belly River light oil play at Pembina (AB).
Relative Valuation: Daylight is currently trading at a Price to Risked NAV ratio of 76% and a 2011E EV/DACF
multiple of 6.5x (versus the group averages of 94% and 9.1x, respectively) while providing a current yield of
6.1% (versus the group average of 5.3%). Our 12-18 month price target of $13.50/share is based on a 1.1x
target multiple to our Risked NAV of $12.95/share (less forecast dividends of $0.60/share) versus the group
average of 1.1x.
PRODUCTION & RESERVES GROWTH

Production Growth (Per Share) Reserves Growth (Per Share)
Production (DAY) 2P Reserves - MMboe (DAY)
PPS Growth (DAY) RPS Growth (DAY)
PPS Growth (Avg)
RELATIVE RISK & MAGNITUDE OF UNBOOKED PROSPECTS
RPS Growth (Avg)
45,000 30% 135 30%
40,000 25% 120 25%
(% change - YOY)
35,000 20% (% change - YOY)

105 20%
30,000 15% 90
(Mmboe)
(boe/d)
15%
25,000 10% 75
20,000 5% 10%
60
15,000 0% 45 5%
10,000 -5% 30 0%
5,000 -10% 15 -5%
0 -15% 0 -10%
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010E
2011E
2005A
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A
Production (Boe/d) CFPS (Basic) Reserves (MMBoe) 2009A +Net Acq.

2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E Proved Developed Producing 43.4 44.5
Q1 39,760A $0.38A Total Proved (1P) 77.0 91.3
Q2 42,273A $0.37A Proved + Probable (2P) 119.1 162.5
Q3 42,052A $0.33A PDP % of Total Proved 56% 49%
Q4 40,500E $0.38E Total Proved % of P+P 65% 56%
2
FY 41,150E 42,450E $1.46E $1.82E 2P Reserve Life - Years 8.5 11.0
% Gas 57% 51% FD&A - 2P, incl. FDC $26.09
3
Cash Recycle Ratio 1.2x
Reserve Engineers: GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd.
5 5
DEBT & OUTFLOWS VS. INFLOWS VALUATION SUMMARY
D/CFDebt
(DAY) Metrics Outflows vs. Inflows4 $45 DAY Risked NAV (C$/Share)
D/CF (Group) Price to Risked NAV
D/CF (AET)
(DAY) 112%
Credit Line Drawn (DAY) Total Pay out Ratio 108% 108%108%
4.0x D/CF (Group)
Credit Line Drawn (Group) 200% $40 "Bluesky" NAV (unrisked) 101% 104%105%
3 Credit Line Draw n (DAY)
(AET) 1.5 Inflow s v s. Outflow s (incl DRIP) Risked NAV 93% 94% 94%
97%
3.5x 175% Basic Pay out Ratio
Credit Line Draw n (Group) 200% 87% 88%
% Credit Facility Utilized
Flow
2.5 1.25 Core NAV 83%

CashFlow
3.0x 150%
175% $35 76% 77%
2
2.5x 1125% 71%
Debt/ /Cash
150%
Payout Ratios
2.0x 100%
1.5 0.75 125% $30
TotalDebt
1.5x 75% 100%

1 0.5
1.0x 50% 75%
$25
Total
Crescent
Progress
Baytex
Daylight
Penn West
PetroBakken
Bonavista
Perpetual
Enerplus
Trilogy
Average
Peyto
0.5 0.25
ARC
NAL
Pengrowth
Bonterra
Vermilion
0.5x 25% 50%
Point
Risked Price
0
0.0x 00% 25%
$20 NAV Target
Avg.
2011E
Group Avg.
DAY
DAY
DAY
DAY
DAY
DAY
DAY
DAY
DAY
DAY
DAY
DAY
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
AET
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E $15 EV/DACF (2011E)
12.2x
11.4x11.4x
Financial Flexibility ($MM) Netback Analysis ($/Boe) 10.1x 10.7x
$10 8.0x 8.1x 8.2x
8.8x 8.9x 9.1x 9.1x 9.3x 9.5x
2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E
6.4x 6.5x 7.0x
Cash Flow from Operations $283 $381 Gross Revenue (net trans) $43.75 $50.87
$5
Capital Spending
6
($325) ($250) Hedging Gains (Losses) $1.83 $1.04 Current Price
Dividends ($139) ($126) Royalties ($12.13) ($13.17) $0
PetroBakken
Bonavista
Crescent
Baytex
Progress
Daylight
Penn West
Enerplus
Trilogy
Perpetual
Peyto
Average
ARC
NAL
Pengrowth
Vermilion
Bonterra
DRIP $0 $0 Operating Costs ($10.44) ($9.75)

Point
US$100/bbl CIBC Base US$50/bbl

Surplus (Deficit) ($181) $5 Operating Netback $23.01 $29.00
C$7.00/mcf Cmdty Prices C$4.00/mcf
Working Capital Deficit $100 $98 G&A ($2.00) ($2.25)
Bank Debt $303 $305 Interest ($2.16) ($2.16) Key Valuation Metrics vs. Coverage Group (CIBC Estimates)
Senior Notes/Other Debt $247 $247 Cap Tax/Other $0.00 $0.00 EV/ EV/2P
Net Debt at Year-end $650 $651 Cash Flow Netback $18.85 $24.59 Share Expected 2011E 2011E 2011E P/Core P/Risked Production Reserves
Debt / CF (Y/E Debt, Year CF) 2.3x 1.7x Price Return Yield P/CF EV/DACF NAV NAV ($/Boe/d) ($/Boe)
Total Credit Facility (Current) $625 Group avg Operating Netback $30.37 $32.20 Daylight $9.81 44% 6.1% 5.4x 6.5x 158% 76% $64,231 $16.78
Facility Utilized (Current) $280 (45%) Group avg Cash Flow Netback $25.93 $27.68 Group Average 21% 5.3% 8.0x 9.1x 181% 94% $94,174 $22.93
MANAGEMENT (Ownership: 3.1%) NOTES
Name Position Name Position 1) Shares O/S based on most recent quarterly balance (adjusted for recent acquisitions and equity issues). 2) Y/E P+P reserves divided by Q4 annualized production (Q4 2010E
Anthony Lambert President & CEO Randy Ford VP, Operations Production for 2010E). 3) Year operating netbacks divided by reported P+P FD&A cost, incl. FDC on a cash basis. 4) Basic payout ratio is calculated total dividends (excluding the
Steve Nielsen VP, CFO Steve Horner VP, Business Services effect of DRIP) paid as a % of operating cash flow, total payout is calculated as total CAPEX and dividends (excluding the effect of DRIP) as a % of operating cash flow. and inflows
versus outflows is calculated as total CAPEX and dividends (including the effect of DRIP) as a % of operating cash flow. 5) Our base commodity price assumptions are US$$85.00/bbl
Ted Hanbury Executive VP Pamela Kazeil VP, Finance (2011E), US$$90.00/bbl (2012E), and US$$95.00/bbl (long term) for WTI crude oil, C$0.97/mcf (2011E), C$$0.97/mcf (2012E), and C$$0.97/mcf (long term) for AECO natural gas, with
Brent Eshleman VP, Exploitation Jerry Simpson VP, Production FX of $4.35 USD/Cdn (2011E), $$4.85 USD/Cdn (2012E), and $$5.50 USD/Cdn (longterm). 6) Based on net capex including the effect of Alberta royalty credits.
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Ltd.
51
A&D Execution Key To Refocused Asset Base - January 17, 2011
52
Company Update
January 17, 2011 Oil & Gas - Large Cap
EnCana Corporation
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
JV & More Restrained Spending Should See ECA
Sector Weighting:
Regain Lost Ground In 2011
Market Weight
ECA-NYSE (1/12/11) $29.64 EnCana was a big laggard in 2010 as weak gas fundamentals more than
Key Indices: Toronto, NYSE trumped the company's strong production growth. Given the weak
performance in 2010 and the stock's near-record-low valuation, we believe
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM it is a good time to buy EnCana.
52-week Range $26.02-$35.63
Float 735.0M Shrs Over the long term, we believe EnCana has the capability to grow 10%+
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 2,844,624 per year, but given the still relatively weak outlook for natural gas in 2011
Market Capitalization $21,933.6M we expect growth to be more in the 7% range -- still at the high end of
Dividend/Div Yield $0.80 / 2.7% Canadian comparables' growth rates and in line with U.S. peers.
Net Asset Value $38.41 per Shr For EnCana to outperform, we need to see some combination of: 1) EnCana
2011 ROE (E) 4.0% landing a large joint venture (reduces capex burden and depicts value); 2) a
Net Debt $7,064.0M
growth strategy that balances capex and cash flow; and/or, 3) a recovery in
Preferred Nil
natural gas prices. We believe all of these events are likely.
ECA trades at only 77% of our risked NAV estimate and at 6.4x 2011E
Earnings per Share Current EV/DACF, a significant discount to its peers. As the market regains
2009 $4.62A confidence in ECA's strategy/asset quality, we believe there is substantial
2010 $0.98E room for the valuation to re-rate to historical levels.
2011 $0.87E
P/E
2009 6.4x
2011 34.1x
Cash Flow per Share

2009 $9.29A
2010 $6.21E
2011 $5.67E
P/CF
2009 3.2x
2010 4.8x
2011 5.2x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in US dollars, unless otherwise stated.
EnCana is a leading North American natural gas
producer. CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
www.encana.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Andrew Potter, CFA Nick Lupick investment decision.
Andrew.Potter@cibc.ca Nick.Lupick@cibc.ca
Kyle Balaux
1 (403) 216-3401
Kyle.Balaux@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
JV & More Restrained Spending Should See ECA Regain Lost Ground In 2011 - January 17, 2011
Encana (ECA-TSX, NYD) Sector Outperformer

Current Price: $29.64 Analyst: Andrew Potter, CFA Ph: (403) 221-5700 E-mail: Andrew.Potter@cibc.ca
Price Target: $36.00 Nick Lupick, Ph: (403) 221-5049 E-mail: Nick.Lupick@cibc.ca
Target Return: 21.5% Kyle Balaux, Ph: (403) 216-3401 E-mail: Kyle.Balaux@cibc.ca
Share Price ($) $29.64 Total Risked Asset Value $28,282
Weighted Average Diluted Shares O/S 740 Total Risked NAVPS - 9% $38.41
Market Capitalization - $M $21,926 P/NAVPS (Risked) 77%
Net Debt - $mm $6,479 Target P/NAVPS (Risked) 94%
Enterprise Value - $M $28,405 Total Unrisked Asset Value $51,928
Float - mm 735 Total Unrisked NAVPS - 9% $70.53
Average Trading Volume (50 Day) 2,844,624 P/NAVPS (Unrisked) 42%
Annual Dividend / Yield $0.80 / 2.7% Target P/NAVPS (UnRisked) 51%
Note: All company figures are in USD unless stated otherwise

CIBC Deck 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
NYMEX WTI (US$/Bbl) US$61.99 US$79.51 US$85.00 US$90.00 US$95.00 US$95.00 US$95.00
Edmonton Par (C$/Bbl) $66.42 $77.55 $84.12 $89.07 $94.02 $94.02 $94.02
Western Canadian Select (C$/Bbl) $58.61 $67.30 $69.40 $74.23 $75.22 $75.22 $75.22
NYMEX Gas (US$/Mcf) US$3.94 US$4.37 US$4.75 US$5.25 US$6.00 US$6.00 US$6.00
AECO (C$/Mcf) $3.99 $3.99 $4.35 $4.85 $5.50 $5.50 $5.50
CRCK321 (US$/Bbl) US$8.23 US$9.67 US$9.00 US$9.00 US$9.00 US$9.00 US$9.00
FX (US$/C$) $0.88 $0.97 $0.97 $0.97 $0.97 $0.97 $0.97
Operating Statistics 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

Canadian Natural Gas Production -mmcf/d 1,855 1,319 1,408 1,713 1,948 2,194 2,332
United States Natural Gas Production - mmcf/d 1,616 1,854 1,978 2,060 2,239 2,477 2,678
Natural Gas (MMcf/d) 3,471 3,172 3,386 3,774 4,187 4,671 5,010
Canadian Oil & Liquids Production (excluding FC & CL) - bbl/d 66,720 13,842 15,000 19,172 22,337 25,921 28,163
United States Oil & Liquids Production - bbl/d 11,317 9,838 10,300 10,621 11,541 12,767 13,805
SAGD Oil & Liquids Production - bbl/d 29,945 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oil & Liquids (bbl/d) 107,983 23,680 25,300 29,793 33,878 38,688 41,968
Production - MBoe/d 686 552 590 659 732 817 877
Natural Gas % 84% 96% 96% 95% 95% 95% 95%
Oil Sands % 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Production Growth Per Share - % 7% 12% 11% 12% 7%
Financial Statistics - US$mm (except per share values) 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
Canada EBITDA $4,614 $2,013 $1,959 $2,736 $3,604 $4,070 $4,338
US Net EBITDA $3,428 $2,768 $2,464 $2,927 $3,746 $4,122 $4,436
Integrated EBITDA $824 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Marketing EBITDA $36 $25 $42 $42 $42 $42 $42
Other & International EBITDA ($49) $1,386 ($3) ($3) ($3) ($3) ($3)
Corporate & Other EBITDA ($3,093) ($341) ($403) ($434) ($481) ($537) ($576)
Hedging (Forecasted) $0 $332 $668 $461 $0 $0 $0
Total EBITDA $6,358 $6,183 $4,727 $5,729 $6,909 $7,695 $8,237
Total Company Operating Cash Flow $6,984 $4,509 $4,178 $5,100 $6,033 $6,820 $7,360
CFPS (Diluted) $9.29 $6.21 $5.67 $6.93 $8.19 $9.26 $10.00
Operating Income $3,459 $725 $637 $1,090 $1,617 $1,805 $1,882
Operating EPS (Diluted) $4.62 $0.98 $0.87 $1.48 $2.20 $2.45 $2.56
Net Capex $5,438 $5,098 $4,159 $4,611 $5,067 $6,264 $6,057
Net Capex/Cash Flow - % 78% 113% 100% 90% 84% 92% 82%
Free Cash Flow $1,546 ($589) $18 $489 $966 $555 $1,303
Debt Analysis 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

Net Debt - $mm $5,313 $6,479 $7,064 $6,665 $6,288 $6,321 $5,607
Net Debt/Cash Flow 0.8x 1.4x 1.7x 1.3x 1.0x 0.9x 0.8x
Net Debt/EV 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x
Valuation 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

EV / DACF 6.0x 6.4x 6.4x 5.3x 4.5x 4.1x 3.7x
Target EV / DACF 4.6x 7.2x 7.2x 6.0x 5.1x 4.6x 4.2x
P/EPS 6.1x 31.3x 35.5x 20.7x 14.0x 12.5x 12.0x
Target P / EPS 15.9x 36.7x 41.6x 24.3x 16.4x 14.7x 14.1x
54
JV & More Restrained Spending Should See ECA Regain Lost Ground In 2011 - January 17, 2011
55
Company Update
January 17, 2011 Merchandising
Jean Coutu Group (PJC) Inc.

Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Low Price, Good Position
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
PJC.A-TSX (1/12/11) $9.30 Despite its earnings forecasts being significantly impacted by recent Quebec
Key Indices: None drug reforms, Jean Coutu remains a relatively inexpensive, well-positioned
drugstore chain with numerous opportunities for growth.
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM
52-week Range $7.88-$10.24
Shares Outstanding 233.4M Earnings will be not much more than flat this year, and Quebec drug
Float 111.1M Shrs reforms will drag a bit on growth in the following year. However, the strong
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 425,800 position of Pro Doc and the company's potential to add stores in Quebec as
Market Capitalization $2,170.6M independents further place Jean Coutu at the top of our radar screen.
Dividend/Div Yield $0.22 / 2.4%
Fiscal Year Ends February Jean Coutu is also well positioned to participate in national drugstore
Book Value $2.39 per Shr consolidation. Its expertise in front-store merchandising, its strong buying
2011 ROE (E) 31.9% practices, its narrow focus and its good franchisee relations might make
Net Debt $219.8M
Coutu a welcome addition to the national scene.
Preferred Nil
Convertible Available No Over the next 12 months, we expect at least one sizeable national
transaction, and possibly a few Quebec deals as pharmacy economics make
Earnings Per Share Current size and scale more critical attributes. We would be surprised if PJC was not
2010 $0.70A an active participant, paying reasonable prices.
2011 $0.76E
2012 $0.76E
P/E
2010 13.3x
2012 12.2x
Excludes Rite Aid.
Source: Reuters
Jean Coutu is the largest drug retailer in Quebec and
owns a 28.4% equity stake in Rite Aid, one of the largest CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
pharmacy chains in the U.S. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
www.jeancoutu.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Perry Caicco Mark Petrie, CFA investment decision.
Perry.Caicco@cibc.ca Mark.Petrie@cibc.ca
Eric Balshin
1 (416) 956-6108
Eric.Balshin@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Low Price, Good Position - January 17, 2011
Jean Coutu Group Inc. (PJC.A-TSX) Sector Outperformer

Current Price: C$9.30 Perry Caicco (416-594-7279) Perry.Caicco@cibc.ca
12- To 18-Month Price Target: C$11.50 Mark Petrie, CFA (416-956-3278) Mark.Petrie@cibc.ca
Eric Balshin (416-956-6108) Eric.Balshin@cibc.ca
All figures in millions except per share data
Comparable Analysis Key Ratios Investment Thesis
LY TY NY F2010 F2011e F2012e PJC is the dominant drugstore chain in Quebec, and owns
P/E ratio ROE 34.3% 31.9% 26.8% a growing generic drug manufacturing business.
Jean Coutu (ex .RAD) 13.3x 12.3x 12.2x ROA 16.5% 17.4% 15.7% Over the next few months, drug reimbursement policies in
Shoppers 14.6x 14.5x 14.6x After-Tax ROIC 22.8% 23.3% 20.6% Quebec will trim the company's earnings, but the impact is
US peers 15.2x 14.4x 12.9x Current Ratio 1.5x 1.7x 1.9x one-time.
EV/EBITDA Net Debt/EBITDA 0.7x 0.7x 0.5x Drug reform in Quebec continually weakens independents
Jean Coutu (ex. RAD) 8.0x 7.5x 7.7x Net Debt/Capital 28.2% 26.5% 17.9% and puts PJC into a stronger position for acquisitions.
Shoppers 8.7x 8.5x 8.4x BV/Share $2.16 $2.49 $3.01 Longer-term, PJC is well-positioned to make sizable acquisitions
US peers 9.4x 8.7x 8.0x FCF $160.4 $157.7 $155.3 outside of Quebec.
New Store Development Market Information Management

F2010 F2011e F2012e Shares Outstanding 233.4 Jean Coutu Chairman
Total Store Count 370 398 424 Float 111.1 Francois J. Coutu President and CEO
Estimated Sq. Ft. 2,647 2,892 3,112 Market Capitalization $ 2,170.6 Andrew Belzile EVP, Finance and Corp. Affairs
Y/Y Sq. Ft Increase 6.22% 9.26% 7.61% Net Debt $ 219.8 Alain Lafortune EVP, Purchasing and Marketing
Avg Store Size (Thousands) 7.15 7.27 7.34 Enterprise Value $ 2,390.4 Normand Messier EVP, Network Operations
Performance Summary Valuation - F2012E NAV
Anuual Review Q3/F11 Review EBITDA Value/Share

F2010 F2011e F2012e Actual Estimate Q3/F10 F2012E Multiple Value CAD CAD
Same-Store Sales Growth CDN Operations $ 277.2 9.0x $ 2,495.0 $ 10.93

Prescriptions 5.7% 1.4% -3.9% 0.7% 3.0% 6.5%
Front-Store 2.8% 0.0% 2.0% -1.7% -3.0% 6.6% Price/Share # of Shares
Total 4.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 6.3% Rite Aid stake $ 0.99 252.0 $ 246.2 $ 1.08
Square Footage Growth Sub-Total $ 2,741.2 $ 12.01

Total 6.2% 9.3% 7.6% 8.8% 8.8% 5.8% Net (Debt) Cash $ (149.6) $ (0.66)
Prescriptions 2,282.2 2,370.1 2,389.6 597.4 611.4 579.6 Total Pre-Tax Realizable Value $ 2,591.6 $ 11.36
Front-store 1,355.1 1,395.7 1,490.7 348.1 341.9 343.6 Note: Conversion to CAD$ at Current Spot Rate of: $ 1.014 USD/CAD
Total Retail Sales 3,637.3 3,765.8 3,880.3 945.5 953.4 923.2 Coutu Calculator
Next 12m F2012E
Distribution Sales (Inc. Pro Doc) 2,298.4 2,338.7 2,337.7 614.7 636.1 616.1 PJC/A current share price, CAD $ 9.30 $ 9.30
Other Revenue 244.7 244.6 254.8 62.6 62.9 62.0 RAD current share price, USD $ 0.99 $ 0.99
Total Revenue 2,543.1 2,583.3 2,592.5 677.3 699.0 678.1 Current USD/CAD exchange rate 1.014 1.014
Value of RAD per PJC share, CAD $ 1.08 $ 1.08

Gross Margin 473.2 502.1 511.9 131.9 128.9 123.5 PJC Canada price per share, CAD $ 8.22 $ 8.22
% of Sales 13.01% 13.33% 13.19% 13.95% 13.53% 13.38% PJC shares o/s 227.9 228.2
SG&A Expenses 217.1 231.3 248.8 59.6 57.7 55.2 Net Debt (Cash) $ 179.1 $ 149.6
% of Sales 5.97% 6.14% 6.41% 6.30% 6.05% 5.98% PJC Canada EV, CAD $ 2,053.0 $ 2,025.9
Amort of Fran Incentives 12.7 14.6 14.1 3.8 3.6 3.2 PJC Canada EBITDA estimate $ 269.4 $ 277.2
PJC Canada EV/EBITDA 7.6x 7.3x
EBITDA 268.8 285.4 277.2 76.1 74.9 71.5
$20
% of Sales 7.39% 7.58% 7.14% 8.05% 7.85% 7.74% Current EV/Next 12m EBITDA 7.6x 13x
$15
Forward EV/EBITDA
D&A 17.6 17.2 19.4 4.3 4.4 4.6 11x

Share price
Interest Expense -4.2 1.6 3.5 -0.3 0.7 -0.4 $10

9x
Tax Expense 74.9 75.0 66.5 20.3 18.0 19.5
Net Earnings 165.4 177.0 173.8 47.2 48.2 43.9 $5 7x
Loss From Rite Aid -55.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 $- 5x
Rite Aid share price, in CAD PJC.a share price, in CAD
EPS Excl. RAD Loss $ 0.70 $ 0.76 $ 0.76 $ 0.20 $ 0.21 $ 0.19
EV/ Next 12m EBITDA, PJC
# of Shares O/S, Diluted 236.2 233.9 228.2 233.4 233.4 236.2
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.
57
Low Price, Good Position - January 17, 2011
58
Company Update
January 17, 2011 Precious Metals
Kirkland Lake Gold Inc.

Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Rebuilding In A Classic High-grade Camp
Sector Weighting:
Overweight
KGI-TSX (1/12/11) $14.72 Kirkland Lake is re-developing the Macassa mine in Kirkland Lake into a
Key Indices: None better operation than when it ran for 65 years in the mid to late 1900s.
With two sources of ore, including the high-grade South Mine Complex, the
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM build-out of production won't be constrained by ore availability.
52-week Range $6.25-$16.19
Float 67.0M Shrs Long-term prospects for continued reserve growth are strong, given KGI's
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 260,000 control of most of the key ground where it operates. Drilling continues to
Market Capitalization $1,003.6M intersect mineralization that is among the highest concentrations in the
Dividend/Div Yield Nil / Nil world, with results that are reminiscent of the Red Lake mine.
Fiscal Year Ends April
Book Value $2.34 per Shr Production plans remain on track for growth to the 200,000 oz. annual
2010 ROE (E) NM level within two years, which should vault KGI into intermediate producer
LT Debt NA
status. We foresee prospects for expansion beyond these figures and
Preferred Nil
delivery of production will be the key driver for share price performance.
We think KGI trades at attractive multiples relative to its upside potential
Earnings per Share Current for growth in production as well as reserves. The company's shares offer
2010 ($0.30A) good leverage to gold price movements, with the added prospect of finding
2011 $0.30E high-grade mineralization where the hit ratio has been >80%.
2012 $1.10E
P/E
2010 NM
2012 13.4x
Cash Flow per Share

2010 ($0.21A)
2011 $0.53A
2012 $1.53E
P/CF
2010 NM
2011 27.8x
2012 9.6x
Source: Reuters
Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. is an operating gold mining
company located in Canada. The company's flagship CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
mine is the Macassa Mine located in Kirkland Lake, its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
Ontario. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.klgold.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Barry Cooper Khaled Sultan
1 (416) 956-6787 1 (416) 594-7297
Barry.Cooper@cibc.ca Khaled.Sultan@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Rebuilding In A Classic High-grade Camp - January 17, 2011
Kirkland Lake Gold Date January 12, 2011 Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
KGI-TSX Share Price CAD 14.72
Rating Sector Outperformer Barry Cooper - 1 (416) 956-6787 - Barry.Cooper@cibc.ca
Target CAD 22.00 Khaled Sultan - 1 (416) 594-7297 - Khaled.Sultan@cibc.ca
All figures in C$ million, unless otherwise stated. Gold price assumption in yr 2010 @ US$1225, yr 2011@ US$1600, and yr 2012 @ US$1700
Risk adjusted discount rates vary from 8% to 15% depending on the location of the asset and its technical challenges
Multiples P/NAV* P/NAV** 2010 PE 2011 PE 2010 PCF 2011 PCF Investment Thesis
Kirkland Lake 1.5 x 1.8 x NEG 54.4 x NEG 26.9 x KGI is re-developing the Macassa mine in Kirkland Lake into an operation that will likely be better
North American Average 1.6 x 2.3 x 49.8 x 109.4 x 22.9 x 17.9 x than when it operated for 65 years in the mid to late 1900s. With two major source areas for gold, the
Large Cap Average (>$10B) 1.7 x 2.5 x 73.0 x 28.2 x 27.8 x 15.1 x build-out of production will not be constrained by stope availability once the expansions are complete
Mid Cap Average ($2B-$10B) 1.8 x 2.7 x 18.2 x 40.8 x 18.6 x 13.8 x in a few years. The high-grade nature of the new South Mine Complex offers up some interesting
prospects for grade enhancement at the mine. The company continues to intersect gold
Small Cap Average (<$2B) 1.2 x 1.8 x 19.8 x 172.0 x 9.7 x 14.5 x
mineralization that is among the highest concentrations in the world. We believe that as production is
Large Cap Average > 1M oz 1.5 x 2.2 x 49.2 x 37.0 x 21.7 x 16.3 x realized the market will recognize that this camp is worthy of similar multiples afforded operations in
Intermediate Producers 0.2-1 M oz 1.6 x 2.7 x 38.7 x 39.7 x 26.7 x 16.5 x Red Lake where market multiples are high. KGI offers good leverage to gold price movements with
Small Producers < 0.2M oz 2.3 x 3.6 x 33.9 x 501.6 x 19.6 x 20.9 x the added prospect of finding high-grade mineralization. We believe that its operations have a higher-
* Cash Adjusted NAV Multiples Using: US$1200/oz Gold Pricing And 5% Discount Rates than-normal degree of delivery on forecast projections made by the company. A low float in shares
** Using: US$1200/oz @ Risk Adjusted Discount Rates makes it particularly vulnerable to high volatility for good news flow which we expect will be coming as
plans and actions take place.
5% Discount Risk Adjusted Discount
P/NAV Sensitivity P/NAV P/NAV P/NAV P/NAV P/NAV P/NAV Production Profile
Avg. Gold Px - US$ $1,000 $1,100 $1,300 $1,000 $1,100 $1,300
Kirkland Lake 2.5 x 1.9 x 1.2 x 3.0 x 2.3 x 1.5 x
Production 000s Ounces

250 $1,400
North American Average 2.3 x 1.9 x 1.4 x 15.4 x 2.9 x 2.0 x
Large Cap Average (>$10B) 2.4 x 2.0 x 1.5 x 3.5 x 2.9 x 2.2 x $1,200
200
Mid Cap Average ($2B-$10B) 2.4 x 2.0 x 1.6 x 3.8 x 3.2 x 2.3 x $1,000
Small Cap Average (<$2B) 1.8 x 1.5 x 1.0 x 24.9 x 2.4 x 1.3 x 150 $800
Large Cap Average > 1M oz 1.9 x 1.7 x 1.4 x 2.7 x 2.4 x 2.0 x $600
100
Intermediate Producers 0.2-1 M oz 2.5 x 2.0 x 1.4 x 48.9 x 3.4 x 2.2 x
$400
Small Producers < 0.2M oz 2.9 x 2.6 x 2.1 x 4.6 x 4.0 x 3.2 x 50
$200
EV Statistics - US$ EV ($mln) EV/Prod EV/2P* EV/R&R** 0 $0
F2010E
F2011E
F2012E
F2013E
F2014E
F2015E
Kirkland Lake $953 $6,541 $683 $400
North American Average $9,403 $834 $491
Large Cap Average (>$10B) $8,916 $495 $360
Mid Cap Average ($2B-$10B) $9,203 $652 $349
Small Cap Average (<$2B) $5,016 $882 $524 Production Total Cash Costs
Large Cap Average > 1M oz $9,742 $525 $296
Intermediate Producers 0.2-1 M oz $8,344 $557 $348 Production (2011E)/Resource Detail
Small Producers < 0.2M oz $9,085 $1,221 $277 Asset Production* Cash Costs** 2P M&I
* Proven & Probable Reserves ** Reserves and Resources Macassa and SMC 146 631 1,397 2,269
Total 146 $631 1,397 2,269
Income Statement F2010A F2011E F2012E F2013E * Gold (000s oz) 2P: Modeled Proven & Probable Reserves (000s oz)
Gold Price Assumptions US$ $975 $1,225 $1,600 $1,700 ** Net of by product credits (if applicable) M & I: Modeled Measured + Indicated Resources (000s oz
Production (000s ounces) 45 93 146 185 NAV Breakdown - US$ Gold Price of: 1,200
Cash Costs US$/oz $1,134 $720 $647 $625 Ownership Discount Rate US$ Millions Per Share
Capital Expenditures $34 $58 $32 $32 Current Assets
Revenues $52 $121 $246 $332 Cash 43 0.63
Expenses
Operating Expenses 57 71 99 122 Mining Assets
D,D&A, Reclamation 4 8 16 20 Macassa and SMC 100% 5% 577 8.47
S,G&A 3 3 4 5 Kirkland Lake Land 100% 50 0.73
Exploration 5 6 6 6 Total Assets 671 9.83
Total Expenses 68 87 125 153
Liabilities
Income Before Tax -17 34 121 178 LT Debt 0 0.00
Income Taxes 0 11 40 60 Reclamation 3 0.05
Net Income -17 23 80 118 Total Liabilities 3 0.05
EPS -0.30 0.30 1.10 1.64 Net Asset Value 667 9.79
CFPS -0.21 0.53 1.53 2.21
Asset Locations
Shares Outstanding 63 68 68 68
60
Rebuilding In A Classic High-grade Camp - January 17, 2011
61
Company Update
NAL Energy Corporation

Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Cardium First Mover Our Top Higher-yielding Pick
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
NAE-TSX (1/12/11) $13.02 With a 6.5% yield (vs. the average of 5.3%), attractive Cardium acreage,
Key Indices: S&P/TSX Energy Trust, S&P/TSX and a strong balance sheet, NAL is our top pick for yield-focused investors.
Income Trust Composite Supporting its yield is a total payout ratio of 107% (vs. the average of
Projected Total Return 29.3% 122%) and a 2011E D/CF ratio of 1.5x (vs. the average of 1.9x).
52-week Range $9.68-$14.95
Distr. Frequency $0.07 Monthly Potential near-term catalysts include 2011 guidance and an operational
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 450,000 update (expected January 25, after mkt.), as well as year-end
Market Capitalization $1,908.7M results/reserve reporting (expected March 9, after mkt.). We believe NAL's
Dividend/Div Yield $0.84 / 6.5% track record of operational execution bodes well for the upcoming update.
P+P RLI (years) 11.0 Key assets include NAL's Cardium tight oil at Garrington & Cochrane
2011 EV/DACF 7.0X (southern AB) and its conventional Mississippian light oil play (southeast
Net Debt $496.9M
SK). Other notable assets include its Viking light oil play at Provost/Irricana
(AB), its Wabamun oil asset (AB), and its Doig gas play (northeast BC).
Net Debt/CF 1.5X
Cash Flow Per Unit Current Risked NAV (vs. the average of 1.1x). NAL trades at discounted P/Risked
2009 $2.15A NAV of 87% and a 2011E EV/DACF multiple of 7.0x (vs. averages of 94%
2010 $1.87E and 9.1x) with a 6.5% yield (vs. the average of 5.3%).
2011 $2.15E
P/CF
2009 6.1x
2011 6.1x
Cash Distribution Per Unit

2009 $1.12A
2010 $1.08E
2011 $0.84E
Cash-on-Cash Yield
2009 8.6%
2010 8.3%
2011 6.5%
Source: Reuters
NAL Energy Corporation converted from a trust to a
dividend-paying corporation on December 31, 2010. CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
www.nal.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Jeff (Sizhuo) Shen
1 (403) 221-5047
Cardium First Mover Our Top Higher-yielding Pick - January 17, 2011
NAL Energy Corp. (NAE - TSX) Sector Outperformer

Current Price: C$13.02 Shares O/S(1): 146.6MM Jeremy Kaliel, MBA (403-260-8657) Jeremy.Kaliel@cibc.ca
Dividend (NTM) / Freq. / Yield: $0.84 / mthly / 6.5% Average Trading Vol (50 day): 450,000 Jeff Shen (403-221-5047) Jeff.Shen@cibc.ca
Investment Thesis: We have a Sector Outperformer rating on NAL Energy Corp. with a 12-18 month price
target of $16.00/share. With a 7% yield (vs. the average of 5.3%), attractive Cardium acreage, and a strong
balance sheet, NAL is our top pick for yield focused investors.
Potential Catalysts: Potential near term catalysts include 2011 guidance and an operational update
(expected on Jan. 25th, after mkt.), as well as year-end results/reserve reporting (expected on Mar. 9th, after
mkt.). We believe NAL’s track record of operational execution bodes well for the upcoming update, and
evidences its high-quality asset base.
Key Assets: Key assets include NAL’s Cardium tight oil at Garrington & Cochrane (southern AB), and its
conventional Mississippian light oil play (southeast SK). Other notable assets include its Viking light oil play at
Provost/Irricana (AB), its Wabamun oil asset (AB), and its Doig gas play (northeast B.C.).
Relative Valuation: NAL is currently trading at a Price to Risked NAV ratio of 87% and a 2011E EV/DACF
multiple of 7.0x (versus the group averages of 94% and 9.1x, respectively) while providing a current yield of
6.5% (versus the group average of 5.3%). Our 12-18 month price target of $16.00/share is based on a 1.1x
target multiple to our Risked NAV of $15.04/share (less forecast dividends of $0.86/share) versus the group
average of 1.1x.

Production (NAE) 2P Reserves - MMboe (NAE)
PPS Growth (NAE) RPS Growth (NAE)
RPS Growth (Avg)
RELATIVE RISK & MAGNITUDE OF UNBOOKED PROSPECTS
PPS Growth (Avg)
35,000 20% 120 25%
30,000 15% 105 20%
(% change - YOY)
(% change - YOY)
25,000 10% 90 15%
(MMboe
(boe/d)
20,000 5% 75 10%
60 5%
15,000 0%
45 0%
10,000 -5% 30 -5%
5,000 -10% 15 -10%
0 -15% 0 -15%
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010E
2011E
2005A
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A

2
% Gas 52% 50% FD&A - 2P, incl. FDC $27.87
3
Reserve Engineers: McDaniel & Associates Consultants
5 5
Debt Metrics Outflows vs. Inflows4 $35 NAE Risked NAV (C$/Share)
D/CF (NAE) Price to Risked NAV
D/CF
D/CF(AET)
(Group)
(NAE) 112%
Total Pay out Ratio 105% 108% 108%108%
3.5x Credit
D/CF Line Drawn (NAE)
(Group) 175% "Bluesky" NAV (unrisked) 101% 104%
3 Credit Line Drawn (Group)
Credit Line Draw n (NAE)
(AET) 1.5 Inflow s v s. Outflow s (incl DRIP) $30 Risked NAV 93% 94% 94%
97%
3.0x 150% 150% Basic Pay out Ratio 87% 88%
Credit Line Draw n (Group)
Flow
2.5 1.25 Core NAV 83%

CashFlow
2.5x 125% 76% 77%

2 1 125% 71%
$25
Debt/ /Cash
Payout Ratios
2.0x 100%
1.5 0.75 100% Risked
1.5x 75% Price
TotalDebt
1 0.5 75% NAV

1.0x 50% Target
$20
Total
Crescent
Progress
Baytex
Daylight
Penn West
PetroBakken
Bonavista
Perpetual
Enerplus
Trilogy
Average
Peyto
0.5 0.25
ARC
NAL
Pengrowth
Bonterra
Vermilion
0.5x 25% 50%
Point
0
0.0x 00% 25%
$15
Avg.
2011E
Group Avg.
NAE
NAE
NAE
NAE
NAE
NAE
NAE
NAE
NAE
NAE
NAE
NAE
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
AET
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E EV/DACF (2011E)
$10 11.4x11.4x
12.2x
Current 8.8x 8.9x 9.1x 9.1x 9.3x 9.5x
2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E 8.0x 8.1x 8.2x
Price 6.4x 6.5x 7.0x
Cash Flow from Operations $269 $318 Gross Revenue (net trans) $45.92 $51.25 $5
6
Capital Spending ($210) ($215) Hedging Gains (Losses) $2.26 $1.16
PetroBakken
Bonavista
Crescent
Baytex
Progress
Daylight
Penn West
Enerplus
Trilogy
Perpetual
Peyto
Average
ARC
NAL
Pengrowth
Vermilion
Bonterra

Point

Surplus (Deficit) ($73) ($1) Operating Netback $28.84 $32.13
Senior Notes/Other Debt $195 $195 Cap Tax/Other ($0.52) ($0.31) EV/ EV/2P
Net Debt at Year-end $467 $468 Cash Flow Netback $24.55 $28.07 Share Expected 2011E 2011E 2011E P/Core P/Risked Production Reserves
Total Credit Facility (Current) $550 Group avg Operating Netback $30.37 $32.20 NAL $13.02 29% 6.5% 6.1x 7.0x 183% 87% $77,611 $23.36
Andrew B. Wiswell President & CEO Marlon J. McDougall VP, Operations & COO Production for 2010E). 3) Year operating netbacks divided by reported P+P FD&A cost, incl. FDC on a cash basis. 4) Basic payout ratio is calculated total dividends (excluding the
Keith A. Steeves VP Finance & CFO John C. Koyanagi VP, Business Dev effect of DRIP) paid as a % of operating cash flow, total payout is calculated as total CAPEX and dividends (excluding the effect of DRIP) as a % of operating cash flow. and inflows
(2011E), US$$90.00/bbl (2012E), and US$$95.00/bbl (long term) for WTI crude oil, C$0.97/mcf (2011E), C$$0.97/mcf (2012E), and C$$0.97/mcf (long term) for AECO natural gas, with
FX of $4.35 USD/Cdn (2011E), $$4.85 USD/Cdn (2012E), and $$5.50 USD/Cdn (longterm). 6) Based on net capex including the effect of Alberta royalty credits.
63
Cardium First Mover Our Top Higher-yielding Pick - January 17, 2011
64
Company Update
January 17, 2011 Multi-Industry
Onex Corporation
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Expecting NAV Growth To Accelerate And NAV
Sector Weighting:
Discount To Narrow
Market Weight
OCX-TSX (1/12/11) $31.35 We believe that Onex's NAV growth will accelerate in 2011 as: 1) conditions
Key Indices: Toronto for monetization opportunities become more attractive; 2) the rebound in
manufacturing activity takes hold; 3) additional fees are earned from new
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM funds; and, 4) recently invested cash starts to earn a return.
52-week Range $24.02-$31.65
Float 89.3M Shrs Asset dispositions have been a major driver of share price performance in
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 230,000 the past and we think 2011 could be a big year for dispositions following a
Market Capitalization $3,708.7M slow 2010. IPO conditions are improving with rising equity markets and
Dividend/Div Yield $0.11 / 0.4% there are many corporations and private equity firms flush with cash.
Net Asset Value $35.59 per Shr We are of the opinion that the discount to NAV should narrow as well. Onex
2011 ROE (E) NM trades at a 12% discount to NAV, but there is no longer a cost of carry for
Net Cash $513.00M
shareholders and the stock has actually traded at a premium to NAV in the
Preferred Nil
past when disposition activity is robust.
The greatest risks to our call are a collapse in manufacturing activity and a
Earnings Per Share* Current lack of appetite for IPOs. Current trends suggest that those two factors are
2009 $0.92A heading in the right direction for Onex. Our $40.25 price target implies a
2010 ($0.17E) return to target of 28.4%, the highest in our coverage universe.
2011 $1.03E
P/E
2009 34.1x
2010 NM Stock Price Performance
2011 30.4x
* From continuing operations.
Source: Reuters
Founded in 1984, Onex Corporation is one of North
America's oldest and most successful private equity and CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
alternative asset managers. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
www.onex.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Paul Holden, CFA Kevin Cheng, CFA
1 (416) 594-8417 1 (416) 956-6676
Paul.Holden@cibc.ca Kevin.Cheng@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Expecting NAV Growth To Accelerate And NAV Discount To Narrow - January 17, 2011
Onex Corp. (OCX - TSX) Sector Outperformer

Current Price : C$31.35 Paul Holden, CFA (416-594-8417) Paul.holden@cibc.ca
12- To 18- Month Price Target: C$40.25 Kevin Cheng, CFA (416-956-6676) Kevin.cheng@cibc.ca
Net Asset Value 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011E Company Profile
Onex is a private equity firm that invests its own capital alongside third-party capital
NAV 31.10 32.70 35.37 38.97 raised through its Onex Partners and ONCAP fund families. The company was
P/NAV 0.6x 0.7x 0.9x 0.8x founded in 1984 and has produced a 29% annual rate of return on its investments.
Y/Y chg in NAV 3.7% 5.2% 8.2% 10.2% The management of third-party capital also produces management fees and the
potential for carried interest.
Committed Onex' Investment Thesis

Investment Structure (US$) Capital Share Management has a long history of creating value, having produced a 29% IRR
Direct Investments na 423 since 1984. This ability to create value and grow NAV warrants a valuation that is at
Onex Partners I 1655 400 a premium to NAV. Onex Corp is currently trading at a discount to NAV of 11.9% .
Onex Partners II 3450 1400 The economics for Onex Corp. are better today than at any time in the past due to
Onex Partners III 4300 800 the growing stream of management fees and its share of carried interest in the
ONCAP II 574 252 company's largest fund to date, Onex Partners III.
Onex Real Estate Partners 318 277 There is ample capital available for management to create value with 58% of NAV
Onex Credit Partners 875 255 in private companies and another 12% in cash & equivalents.
Shares Market NAV Summary NAV By Industry

NAV: Public Companies Owned Price Value (C$) / share
Emergency Medical Services 4.8 67.12 318 2.68 Net Asset Value
Spirit Aerosystems Inc. 8.6 22.42 190 1.61 Type Of Industry ($mlns) Per Share % of Total
Celestica 17.8 9.55 170 1.44 Manufacturing 611 5.17 15%
Skilled Healthcare Group Inc. 3.5 11.42 39 0.33 Healthcare 682 5.77 16%
Unrealized carried interest 48 0.41 Aerospace 434 3.67 10%
Total Public Companies 765 6.47 Customer Support Services 340 2.87 8%
LTM EV Value at NAV Other Industries 301 2.54 7%
NAV: Private Companies & Other

2
EBITDA / EBITDA Cost (C$) / share Financial Services 175 1.48 4%
Sitel Worldwide 114.0 8.5 340 2.87 Mid-cap Opportunities 211 1.78 5%
Allison Transmission 619.0 8.1 250 2.11 Credit Securities 97 0.82 2%
Husky Injection Molding Systems 197.0 3.9 191 1.61 Real Estate 97 0.82 2%
Hawker Beechcraft 96.0 31.3 244 2.06 2,948 24.92 70%
Carestream Health 470.0 4.3 191 1.61 Other 749 6.33 18%
The Warranty Group na na 175 1.48 Cash And Near-Cash items 513 4.34 12%
RSI Home Products na na 133 1.12 Total Assets 4,210 $35.59 100%
TMS International 115.0 5.5 109 0.92

ResCare Inc. na na 113 0.96
Tropicana Las Vegas na na 59 0.50 Historical Premium / Discount To NAV
Tomkins na na 354 2.99
Markup For Private Investments - - 267 2.26 40%
Center for Diagnostic Imaging 38.0 3.6 21 0.18 30%
Total Private Companies 2,447 20.69 20%
+1 std dev
10%
0%
Onex Real Estate Partners 97 0.82 Av erage
-10%
Onex Credit Partners 97 0.82 -20%
ONCAP II 211 1.78 -30%
Other Investments 80 0.68 -40% -1 std dev
Cash and Near-Cash 513 4.34 -50%
Total NAV 4,210 35.59 -60%
Current Price 31.35 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10
Premium / Discount to NAV -11.9%
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc
66
Expecting NAV Growth To Accelerate And NAV Discount To Narrow - January 17, 2011
67
Company Update
Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp.

Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Strong Growth Continues
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
PRE-TSX (1/12/11) C$33.82 We recently initiated coverage of Pacific Rubiales Energy with a Sector
Key Indices: TSXOilGas Outperformer rating and now have a 12- to 18-month price target of
C$43.50. In our view, PRE has a series of upcoming catalysts that should
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM continue to drive the stock to new highs.
52-week Range C$13.31-C$35.67
Float 249.7M Shrs Since inception, management has focused on developing the 4.2 BBbls
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 1,880,903 OOIP Rubiales field and will have increased gross production almost 12-fold
Market Capitalization $9,151.6M to 170 MBbls/d by YE 2010. Additional discoveries on the offsetting Quifa
Dividend/Div Yield C$0.38 / 1.1% block should provide another 30 MBbls/d of production by YE 2010.
Net Asset Value $43.62 per Shr We forecast 57 MBoe/d (after royalty) in 2010, growing to 92 MBoe/d in
2011 ROE (E) NM 2011 and 104 MBoe/d in 2012 based only on development of Rubiales and
Net Debt $168.0M
Quifa. We expect the company's 2011 exploration drilling at Quifa, CPE-6
Preferred Nil
and La Creciente to fuel future growth.
Common Equity NM
Our C$43.50 price target includes a base NAV estimate of C$23.60/FD
Cash Flow Per Share Current share for the producing assets plus cash, liabilities and dilutive proceeds
2010 $2.42E and C$20.02/FD share in risked upside (C$38.46/FD share unrisked) for
2011 $4.29E prospects in Quifa, CPE-6 & Topoyaco that will be drilled in 2011.
2012 $5.27E
P/CF
2010 14.2x
2012 6.5x
Source: Reuters
Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp. is a Canadian-based
company and producer of heavy oil and natural gas with CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
producing assets in Colombia and exploration assets in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
Peru. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.pacificrubiales.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
1 (403) 260-8675 1 (403) 216-3403
Strong Growth Continues - January 17, 2011
Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp. (PRE-TSX, PREC-BVC) Sector Outperformer

Share Price ($) C$33.82 Total Risked Asset Value C$13,040
Market Capitalization - $M C$9,624 P/NAVPS (Risked) 78%
Net Debt - $mm C$240 Target P/NAVPS (Risked) 100%
Enterprise Value - $M C$9,863.9 Total Unrisked Asset Value C$18,553
Note: All company figures are in USD unless stated otherwise

CIBC Deck 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E
NYMEX WTI (US$/bbl) $61.99 $79.51 $85.00 $85.00
NYMEX Gas (US$/mcf) $3.94 $4.37 $4.50 $4.50
FX (US$/C$) $0.88 $0.97 $0.97 $0.97
Operating Statistics 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E

Colombian Natural Gas Production 44 58 56 56
Natural Gas (mmcf/d after royalties) 44 58 56 56
Colombian Oil Production 28,026 47,525 82,950 94,222
Oil (bbl/d after royalties) 28,026 47,525 82,950 94,222
Production (mboe/d after royalties) 35.4 57.2 92.3 103.5
Natural Gas % 21% 17% 10% 9%
Production Per Share (boe/d per MM FD) 124 201 324 364
Production Growth Per Share - % 57% 62% 61% 12%
Production Per Share (boe/d per MM FD) - Debt Adjusted 121 196 316 355
Financial Statistics - US$mm (except per share values) 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E
Colombia EBITDA $247 $871 $1,675 $2,072
Total EBITDA $247 $871 $1,675 $2,072
Total Company Operating Cash Flow (US$mm) $196 $689 $1,268 $1,559
CFPS (Diluted) $0.93 $2.42 $4.29 $5.27
Operating Income ($154) $236 $639 $851
Operating EPS (Diluted) ($0.72) $0.83 $2.16 $2.88
Net Capex $350 $858 $1,120 $900
Net Capex/Cash Flow - % 178% 124% 88% 58%
Free Cash Flow ($154) ($169) $148 $659
Debt Analysis 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E

Net Debt - $mm $236 $237 $189 ($370)
Net Debt/Cash Flow 1.2x 0.3x 0.1x (0.2x)
Net Debt/EV 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x (0.0x)
Valuation 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E

EV / DACF 38.5x 13.6x 7.8x 6.1x
Target EV / DACF 49.2x 17.4x 10.0x 7.9x
P/CFPS 36.9x 14.2x 8.0x 6.5x
Target P / CFPS 47.5x 18.2x 10.3x 8.4x
69
Strong Growth Continues - January 17, 2011
70
Company Update
Pan American Silver Corp.

Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Navidad Permitting Is Key Catalyst In 2011
Sector Weighting:
Overweight
PAAS-NASDAQ (1/12/11) $37.69 We believe Pan American deserves to trade at a premium relative to its
Key Indices: Gold/Sil, TSX/SP - Canadian Gold peers based on a track record of accretive acquisitions and a mine-building
team that is second to none in the industry. PAAS has a strong balance
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM sheet with ~$290MM in cash and short-term investments and no debt.
52-week Range $20.00-$42.33
Float 106.9M Shrs PAAS has reduced reliance on base metals credits with operations like
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 1,400,000 Alamo Dorado and Manantial Espejo, which have no exposure to base
Market Capitalization $4,029.8M metals and, conversely, have a significant amount of gold production.
Dividend/Div Yield $0.10 / 0.3% Ramp-ups at Manantial Espejo and San Vicente are now complete.
Book Value $13.66 per Shr While the production profile is expected to remain flat over the next few
2011 ROE (E) NM years, the company's Navidad Project, one of the largest undeveloped silver
LT Debt $0.0M
properties in the Americas, has the potential to double current production
Preferred Nil
levels in 2014.
Navidad has considerable permitting risk, as open-pit mining is currently
Earnings Per Share Current banned in Chubut, Argentina. We believe PAAS will be successful in lifting
2010 $1.09E the ban (expected Q2/11), which should result in an immediate increase in
2011 $2.69E the share price given PAAS' mine-building track record.
2012 $2.89E
P/E
2010 34.6x
2012 13.0x
Cash Flow Per Share

2010 $2.00E
2011 $3.94E
2012 $4.12E
P/CF
2010 18.8x
2011 9.6x
2012 9.1x
Source: Reuters
Company Description All figures in US dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Pan American Silver Corp. is a primary silver producer
offering investors considerable production growth and CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
leverage to silver prices. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
www.panamericansilver.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Brian Quast Robert Hales, CFA
1 (416) 956-3725 1 (416) 594-7261
Brian.Quast@cibc.ca Robert.Hales@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Navidad Permitting Is Key Catalyst In 2011 - January 17, 2011
Precious Metals
PAN AMERICAN SILVER Brian Quast, (416) 956-3725

Stock Rating: Sector Outperformer brian.quast@cibc.ca
Sector Weighting: Overweight Barry Cooper, (416) 956-6787
12-18 mo. Price Target: $52.00 barry.cooper@cibc.ca
PAAS-NASDAQ (01/12/11): $37.69 Robert Hales, (416) 594-7261
Fiscal Year End December 31 robert.hales@cibc.ca
COMPANY DESCRIPTION RESERVES AND RESOURCES

Pan American Silver Corp. is a primary silver producer with operating assets in Mexico, (in thousands unless otherwise indicated)
Argentina, Peru, and Bolivia, and provides investors leverage to silver prices. Grade Silver Silver Eq.
Tonnes Ag (g/t) (ounces) (ounces)
INVESTMENT THESIS Huaron Proven & Probable 10,842 184 64,230 128,000
Pan American is our top pick in our silver coverage universe with a proven record of Measured & Indicated 1,340 158 6,817 18,482
operational expertise and a strong balance sheet. The company is also well positioned to Morococha Proven & Probable 6,786 174 37,976 82,371
make future acquisitions. Measured & Indicated 2,500 184 14,765 30,468
La Colorada Proven & Probable 2,282 415 30,435 41,045
NET ASSET VALUE Measured & Indicated 1,388 216 9,660 13,457
(in US$ millions, except per share amounts; based on $20 silver) Quiruvilca Proven & Probable 770 159 3,926 11,027
Measured & Indicated 3,372 132 14,315 48,836
Discount Rate: 5% Alamo Dorado Proven & Probable 10,146 95 30,895 39,484
Measured & Indicated 3,697 65 7,669 12,009
Properties Ownership NAV NAV/sh Manantial Espejo Proven & Probable 7,341 153 36,132 77,551
Huaron 100% $196 $1.83 Measured & Indicated 2,969 102 9,717 17,284
Quiruvilca 100% $44 $0.41 San Vicente Proven & Probable 2,254 392 28,388 33,678
La Colorada 100% $368 $3.44 Measured & Indicated 1,617 167 8,678 12,164
Morococha 92% $272 $2.55 Silver Stockpile Probable 189 318 1,935 1,935
Alamo Dorado 100% $329 $3.08 Navidad Measured & Indicated 155,200 127 632,363 799,096
Stockpiles 100% $13 $0.12 Pico Machay Measured & Indicated 10,600 0 0 21,168
Manantial Espejo 100% $553 $5.17 Calcatreu Indicated 7,995 26 6,606 60,687
San Vicente 95% $82 $0.76
Loma de la Plata 100% $678 $6.34 20x
Other $50 $0.47 18x Silver Wheaton
P/2012E CF ($30/oz Silver)
$2,585 $24.18 16x

Silver Standard
14x
Cash $288 $2.70 Silvercorp
Debt ($21) ($0.19) 12x Hecla
Total $2,853 $26.68 10x Pan American
First Majestic
8x Fortuna Silver
PRICE ASSUMPTIONS Endeavour Silver
6x
2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E Gammon Gold Coeur d'Alene
4x
Silver US$/oz $14.70 $20.00 $28.00 $30.00 2x

Gold US$/oz $974 $1,225 $1,600 $1,700 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x 1.5x 2.0x 2.5x 3.0x 3.5x
Zinc US$/lb $0.76 $0.94 $0.90 $0.90 P/NAV ($20/oz Silver, 5% Discount Rate)
Lead US$/lb $0.78 $0.75 $0.75 $0.75
Copper US$/lb $2.35 $3.37 $3.75 $3.25 PRODUCTION AND COSTS
INCOME STATEMENT Production 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E

(in US$ millions, except per share amounts) Silver 'mln oz 23 25 24 25 31
Silver Eq. 'mln oz 38 37 36 35 43
2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E Gold '000 oz 101 91 104 90 76
Zinc 'mln lbs 98 99 103 105 111
Revenues $455 $645 $978 $1,014 Lead 'mln lbs 31 31 33 34 50
Copper 'mln lbs 14 11 16 17 19
Expenses
Operating Expenditures $246 $316 $388 $395 Total Cash Costs
S,G&A $13 $15 $18 $18 Per Silver US$/oz $5.35 $5.10 $2.01 $2.96 $4.73
D,D&A $78 $95 $83 $78 Per Silver Eq. US$/oz $6.41 $8.55 $10.65 $11.20 $9.87
Exploration $10 $34 $40 $40
Other Expenses $12 -$5 $0 $0 50 $12.00
Total Expenses $359 $456 $529 $531 40 $10.00
('mln ounces)
$8.00
(US$/oz)
Income Before Taxes $91 $190 $449 $483 30

$6.00
Income/Mining Tax $28 $76 $157 $169 20
Non-controlling Interest $1 $3 $4 $5 $4.00
Net Income $70 $114 $292 $314 10 $2.00
0 $0.00
EPS $0.80 $1.09 $2.69 $2.89
2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
CFPS $1.64 $2.00 $3.94 $4.12
Silver Production Silver Eq. Production
Shares Outstanding 87 107 107 107 Total Cash Cost Per Silver Oz. Total Cash Cost Per Silver Eq. Oz.
Source: Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc
72
Navidad Permitting Is Key Catalyst In 2011 - January 17, 2011
73
Company Update
Penn West Petroleum Ltd.

Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Tight Oil Resource Plays Underpin Impressive Asset
Sector Weighting:
Base
Market Weight
PWT-TSX (1/12/11) $25.14 At current levels, we believe Penn West's compelling resource potential
Key Indices: S&P/TSX Energy Trust, S&P/TSX justifies its place as one of our top "value picks" today. We expect Penn
Income Trust Composite West will begin to translate its resource potential into production growth
Projected Total Return 27.3% early in 2011, potentially unlocking a step change in valuation for the stock.
52-week Range $17.09-$25.14
Units Outstanding 454.7M
Distr. Frequency $0.09 Monthly Potential near-term catalysts include year-end results/reserve reporting
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 910,000 (expected on February 17). Key to executing on production growth will be
Market Capitalization $11,431.2M Penn West's ability to tie-in its target of 160 wells in Q4/10 (which
Dividend/Div Yield $1.08 / 4.3% compares to 110 wells tied in during the first three quarters of the year).
P+P RLI (years) 11.0 Key assets include Penn West's tight oil plays in the Cardium (AB), the
2011 EV/DACF 8.8X Amaranth (MB), the Viking (SK & AB), and the tight Carbonates (AB). Other
Net Debt $2,832.0M
notable assets include its heavy oil resource play at Seal (AB) and its
Net Asset Value $32.58 per Unit
emerging shale gas play in the Cordova Embayment (northeast BC).
Net Debt/CF 2.0X
Cash Flow per Share Current Risked NAV (vs. the average of 1.1x). Penn West trades at a P/Risked NAV
2009 $3.62A of 77% and a 2011E EV/DACF multiple of 8.8x (vs. averages of 94% and
2010 $2.66E 9.1x) with a 4.3% yield (vs. the average of 5.3%).
2011 $3.24E
P/CF
2009 6.9x
2011 7.8x
Cash Distribution Per Unit

2009 $2.04A
2010 $1.56E
2011 $1.08E
Cash-on-Cash Yield
2009 8.1%
2010 6.2%
2011 4.3%
Source: Reuters
Penn West Exploration converted from a trust to a
dividend-paying corporation on January 3, 2011. CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
www.pennwest.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Jeff (Sizhuo) Shen
1 (403) 221-5047
Tight Oil Resource Plays Underpin Impressive Asset Base - January 17, 2011
Penn West Exploration (PWT - TSX) Sector Outperformer

Current Price: C$25.14 Shares O/S(1): 454.7MM Jeremy Kaliel, MBA (403-260-8657) Jeremy.Kaliel@cibc.ca
Dividend (NTM) / Freq. / Yield: $1.08 / mthly / 4.3% Average Trading Vol (50 day): 930,000 Jeff Shen (403-221-5047) Jeff.Shen@cibc.ca
Investment Thesis: We have a Sector Outperformer rating on Penn West Exploration with a 12-18 month
price target of $32.00/share. At current levels, we believe Penn West’s compelling resource potential justifies
its place as one of our top ‘value picks’ today. We expect Penn West will begin to translate its resource
potential into production growth early in 2011, potentially unlocking a step change in valuation for the stock.
Potential Catalysts: Potential near term catalysts include year-end results/reserve reporting (expected on
Feb. 17th). Key to executing on production growth will be Penn West’s ability to tie-in its target of 160 wells in
Q4/10 (which compares to 110 wells tied in during the first 3 quarters of the year).
Key Assets: Key assets include Penn West’s tight oil plays in the Cardium (AB), the Amaranth (MB), the
Viking (SK & AB), and the tight Carbonates (AB). Other notable assets include its heavy oil resource play at
Seal (AB) and its emerging shale gas play in the Cordova Embayment (northeast BC).
Relative Valuation: Penn West is currently trading at a Price to Risked NAV ratio of 77% and a 2011E
EV/DACF multiple of 8.8x (versus the group averages of 94% and 9.1x, respectively) while providing a current
yield of 4.3% (versus the group average of 5.3%). Our 12-18 month price target of $32.00/share is based on a
1.0x target multiple to our Risked NAV of $32.58/share (less forecast dividends of $1.08/share) versus the
group average of 1.1x.

2P Reserves - MMboe (PWT)
Production (PWT)
PPS Growth (PWT)
RPS Growth (PWT) RELATIVE RISK & MAGNITUDE OF UNBOOKED PROSPECTS
RPS Growth (Avg)
225,000 PPS Growth (Avg) 25% 800 25%
200,000 20%
700 20%
(% change - YOY)
(% change - YOY)
175,000 15%
150,000 10% 600 15%
(Mmboe)
(boe/d)
125,000 5% 500 10%

100,000 0% 400 5%
75,000 -5% 300 0%
50,000 -10% 200 -5%
25,000 -15% 100 -10%
0 -20% 0 -15%
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010E
2011E
2005A
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A

2
% Gas 41% 40% FD&A - 2P, incl. FDC $9.51
3
Reserve Engineers: Gilbert Laustsen Jung Associates Ltd.
5
Debt Metrics Outflows vs. Inflows4 $90 PWT Risked NAV (C$/Share)
D/CF (PWT) Price to Risked NAV
D/CFD/CF (Group)
(AET)
(PWT)
Credit Line Drawn (PWT) Total Pay out Ratio 108%108%108%
112%
4.0x D/CFCredit
(Group)
Line Drawn (Group) 200% Inflow s v s. Outflow s (incl DRIP) $80 "Bluesky" NAV (unrisked) 101% 104%105%
3 1.5 97%
3.5x Credit Line Draw n (PWT)
(AET) 175% Basic Pay out Ratio Risked NAV 93% 94% 94%
Credit Line Draw n (Group) 150% 87% 88%
Flow
2.5 1.25 Core NAV 83%

CashFlow
3.0x 150%
125%
$70 76% 77%
2
2.5x 1125% 71%
Risked
Debt//Cash
Payout Ratios
2.0x
1.5 100%
0.75 100% $60 NAV
TotalDebt
1.5x
1 75%
0.5 75%
1.0x 50%
$50 Price
Total
0.5 0.25
Crescent
Progress
Baytex
Daylight
Penn West
PetroBakken
Bonavista
Perpetual
Enerplus
Trilogy
Average
Peyto
ARC
NAL
Pengrowth
Bonterra
Vermilion
0.5x 25% 50%
Target
Point
0
0.0x 00% 25%
$40
Group
AET
Avg.
Avg.
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
PWT
PWT
PWT
PWT
PWT
PWT
PWT
PWT
PWT
PWT
PWT
PWT
2005 2006 20072011E

2008 2009 2010E 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E $30 EV/DACF (2011E) 12.2x
11.1x 11.4x
$20 8.8x 8.9x 9.1x 9.1x 9.3x 9.5x
2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E 8.0x 8.1x 8.2x
6.4x 6.5x 7.0x
Cash Flow from Operations $1,173 $1,492 Gross Revenue (net trans) $49.74 $54.25 Current Price
6 $10
Capital Spending ($1,000) ($1,100) Hedging Gains (Losses) ($0.37) ($0.19)
PetroBakken
Bonavista
Crescent
Baytex
Progress
Daylight
Penn West
Enerplus
Trilogy
Perpetual
Peyto
Average
ARC
NAL
Pengrowth
Vermilion
Bonterra
Point

Surplus (Deficit) ($394) ($6) Operating Netback $24.74 $28.37
Senior Notes/Other Debt $1,907 $1,904 Cap Tax/Other $0.00 $0.00 EV/ EV/2P
Net Debt at Year-end $2,989 $2,995 Cash Flow Netback $19.60 $23.63 Share Expected 2011E 2011E 2011E P/Core P/Risked Production Reserves
Total Credit Facility (Current) $2,250 Group avg Operating Netback $30.40 $32.22 Penn West $25.14 32% 4.3% 7.8x 8.8x 152% 77% $82,448 $21.42
William Andrew CEO Mark Fitzgerald SVP, Production Production for 2010E). 3) Year operating netbacks divided by reported P+P FD&A cost, incl. FDC on a cash basis. 4) Basic payout ratio is calculated total dividends (excluding the
Murray Nunns President & COO Hilary Foulkes SVP, Business Dev. effect of DRIP) paid as a % of operating cash flow, total payout is calculated as total CAPEX and dividends (excluding the effect of DRIP) as a % of operating cash flow. and inflows
Todd Takeyasu EVP & CFO Keith Luft General Counsel (2011E), US$$90.00/bbl (2012E), and US$$95.00/bbl (long term) for WTI crude oil, C$0.97/mcf (2011E), C$$0.97/mcf (2012E), and C$$0.97/mcf (long term) for AECO natural gas, with
David Middleton EVP, Eng. & Cop. Dev. Bob Shepherd SVP, Expl. & Dev. FX of $4.35 USD/Cdn (2011E), $$4.85 USD/Cdn (2012E), and $$5.50 USD/Cdn (longterm). 6) Based on net capex including the effect of Alberta royalty credits.
Thane Jensen SVP, Operations Eng.
75
Tight Oil Resource Plays Underpin Impressive Asset Base - January 17, 2011
76
Company Update
Petrominerales Ltd.
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Expecting Follow-up Success In A Big Exploration
Sector Weighting:
Year
Market Weight
PMG-TSX (1/12/11) C$37.12 We recently initiated coverage of Petrominerales with a Sector Outperformer
Key Indices: TSXOilGas rating and now have a 12- to 18-month price target of C$42.00. PMG has a
45+ well exploration program in 2011 that is focused in some very
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM prospective areas, which could drive the stock to new highs.
52-week Range C$19.85-C$37.57
Float 100.0M Shrs After shooting extensive high-quality 3D seismic data on the surrounding
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 601,070 lands, management has identified another 55 exploration prospects for
Market Capitalization $3,877.1M future drilling. Sixteen of the best prospects will be drilled in 2011 (roughly
Dividend/Div Yield C$0.50 / 1.3% 38% of the company's 2011 exploration program).
Net Asset Value $42.02 per Shr Newer areas of exploration for 2011 include the deep foothills (two
2011 ROE (E) NM 25MMBbls+ prospects) and a burgeoning heavy oil trend (50 MMBbls+
Net Cash $517.43M
prospects). Both of these areas afford the company an opportunity to make
Preferred Nil
a material discovery that could reshape its future.
Common Equity NM
Our base NAV estimate for PMG, including producing assets plus cash,
Cash Flow Per Share Current liabilities and dilutive proceeds, is C$23.32/FD share. We have also included
2010 $5.39E C$18.70/FD share in risked upside (C$54.67/FD share unrisked), which
2011 $5.06E could be realized from 2011 exploration drilling, bringing our PT to C$42.00.
2012 $3.56E
P/CF
2010 7.0x
2012 10.6x
Source: Reuters
Petrominerales Ltd. is a Latin America-based E&P
company producing oil in Colombia with 17 exploration CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
blocks in the Llanos and Putumayo Basins and five its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
exploration blocks in Peru. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.petrominerales.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
1 (403) 260-8675 1 (403) 216-3403
Expecting Follow-up Success In A Big Exploration Year - January 17, 2011
Petrominerales Ltd. (PMG-TSX) Sector Outperformer

Share Price ($) C$37.12 Total Risked Asset Value C$4,668
Market Capitalization - $M C$3,877 P/NAVPS (Risked) 88%
Net Debt - $mm (C$577) Target P/NAVPS (Risked) 100%
Enterprise Value - $M C$3,301 Total Unrisked Asset Value C$8,663
Average Trading Volume (50 Day) 601,070 P/NAVPS (Unrisked) 48%
CIBC Deck 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E

NYMEX WTI (US$/bbl) $61.99 $79.51 $85.00 $85.00
NYMEX Gas (US$/mcf) $3.94 $4.37 $4.50 $4.50
FX (US$/C$) $0.88 $0.97 $0.97 $0.97
Operating Statistics 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E

Colombian Natural Gas Production - - - -
Natural Gas (mmcf/d before royalties) - - - -
Colombian Oil Production 22,490 38,969 39,199 26,273
Oil & Liquids (bbl/d before royalties) 22,490 38,969 39,199 26,273
Production (mboe/d before royalties) 22.5 39.0 39.2 26.3
Natural Gas % 0% 0% 0% 0%
Production Per Share (boe/d per MM FD) 215 373 375 252
Production Growth Per Share - % nmf 73% 1% (33%)
Production Per Share (boe/d per MM FD) - Debt Adjusted 253 438 441 295
Financial Statistics - $mm (except per share values) 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E
Colombia - EBITDA $297 $704 $720 $526
Total EBITDA $297 $704 $720 $526
Total Company Operating Cash Flow (US$mm) $284 $563 $532 $374
CFPS (Diluted) $2.84 $5.39 $5.06 $3.56
Operating Income $100 $240 $236 $173
Operating EPS (Diluted) $1.00 $2.30 $2.25 $1.64
Capital Expenditures $298 $482 $630 $550
Net Capex $298 $511 $630 $550
Net Capex/Cash Flow - % 105% 91% 118% 147%
Free Cash Flow ($15) $52 ($98) ($176)
Debt Analysis 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E

Net Debt - $mm $63 ($570) ($421) ($193)
Net Debt/Cash Flow 0.2x (1.0x) (0.8x) (0.5x)
Net Debt/EV 0.0x (0.2x) (0.1x) (0.1x)
Valuation 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E

EV / DACF 13.1x 5.8x 6.4x 9.5x
Target EV / DACF 14.8x 6.7x 7.3x 10.8x
P/CFPS 13.3x 7.0x 7.4x 10.6x
Target P / CFPS 15.0x 7.9x 8.4x 12.0x
78
Expecting Follow-up Success In A Big Exploration Year - January 17, 2011
79
Company Update
January 17, 2011 Metals & Minerals
Quadra FNX Mining Ltd.

Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Strong Copper Production Growth To Overcome
Sector Weighting:
Weak 2010 Operating Performance
Market Weight
QUX-TSX (1/12/11) C$16.97 Quadra FNX is an operationally diverse large-cap copper miner with an
Key Indices: None attractive growth pipeline, low political risk profile, and strong balance
sheet. The company also holds the highest earnings and NAV leverage to
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM copper, our favored commodity exposure, in our coverage universe.
52-week Range C$8.98-C$18.57
Float 186.8M Shrs We believe QUX shares already reflect the potential downside associated
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 1,330,024 with recent operational issues and are attractively priced given the
Market Capitalization $3,240.4M company's strong leverage to copper prices and its potential to benefit from
Dividend/Div Yield Nil / Nil the Morrison production ramp-up and the advancement of Sierra Gorda.
Book Value $11.27 per Shr We expect QUX's copper production to increase ~40% Y/Y, due mainly to
2011 ROE (E) NM the addition of Morrison, with copper output set to more than double by
LT Debt $0.0M
2015 as Sierra Gorda enters production. The Victoria project should
Preferred Nil
continue to advance, which has future potential to add significant value.
QUX is trading at about 0.7x P/NAV, which is at a substantial discount to
Earnings Per Share Current other copper-producing peers and represents a strong buying opportunity
2009 $0.71A for investors seeking exposure to strong copper leverage and long-term
2010 $1.31E production growth, albeit with above-average, near-term operational risk.
2011 $3.21E
P/E
2009 24.2x
2011 5.3x
Cash Flow Per Share

2009 $1.25A
2010 $2.05E
2011 $4.05E
P/CF
2009 13.7x
2010 8.4x
2011 4.2x
Source: Reuters
Quadra Mining Ltd. has quickly emerged as an
Americas-focused developer and producer of copper. CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
Management has delivered on promised production its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
growth. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.quadramining.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Alec Kodatsky Terry K.H. Tsui, CFA
1 (416) 594-7284 1 (416) 956-3287
Alec.Kodatsky@cibc.ca Terry.Tsui@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Strong Copper Production Growth To Overcome Weak 2010 Operating Performance - January 17, 2011
Quadra FNX Mining Ltd. (QUX) Sector Outperformer

Current Price: $16.97 Alec Kodatsky (416-594-7284) alec.kodatsky@cibc.ca
12-18 Months Target Price: C$25.50 Terry Tsui (416-956-3287) terry.tsui@cibc.ca
(All figures in US$, unless otherwise stated) Key Data
Profile 52-week trading range ($) Low: 8.98 High: 18.57
Quadra FNX is a growing copper producer with a significant nickel and precious metals production profile. The Average daily trading volume (000) 1,500
company's assets are located in politically stable, mining-friendly jurisdictions in North and South America. TSX index weight 0.09%
Shares outstanding (mm)
Investment Summary Basic 188.8
Fully diluted 141.6
Quadra FNX has a strong metals production growth profile, a robust balance sheet and the potential to add low-risk
Public float 188.8
incremental growth at below-average capital costs. In our view, the market is not fully pricing in the start-up of the Market capitalization - basic ($mm) 3,205
Morrison project, which we expect to emerge as the company's highest operating margin asset as it ramps up to full
production 2011. In addition, the company possesses advanced development project Sierra Gorda, a copper- Q3 2010A
molybdenum project in Chile, which has the potential to double its current copper production once in operation in 2014. Cash ($mm) 323
Working capital ($mm) 545
Outlook Total debt ($mm) 0
- The start-up of Morrison and the ramp-up at Carlota and Franke should drive the company’s near-term metals Common equity ($mm) 2,128
Net debt/common equity (x) n/a
production growth.
- Development milestones of the Sierra Gorda project prefeasibility study, as well as water rights acquisitions and
permitting, will likely represent the medium-term catalysts. Year-end Dec. 31 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E
- With a strong financial position, we expect the company to continue to focus on exploration that can yield new
discoveries while maintaining its current strong production growth profile. EPS ($) 0.71 1.31 3.21 2.94
CFPS ($) 1.25 2.05 4.05 3.66
Book value ($) 1005 2222 3090 4085
NPV per share ($) 27.73
Cu production (000 tonnes) Cash cost (US$/lb Cu) P/E (x) 23.9 13.0 5.3 5.8
CIBC Forecast 20 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E E P/CF (x) 13.6 8.3 4.2 4.6
200 $2.50
P/book value (x) 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.8
175 $2.00
Ni price (US$/lb) ## 6.62 9.90 10.50 9.25 P/NPV (x) 0.61
150 $1.50
Cu price (US$/lb) ## 2.33 3.42 4.50 4.00 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.8 5.0 2.1 1.8
125 $1.00
C$ exchange rate (US$) ## 0.88 0.97 0.99 0.93 EV/EBIT (x) 13.4 7.0 2.4 2.0
100
$0.50 EV/OpFCF (x) (13.6) 55.8 4.4 5.0
75
50 $0.00 ROE nm 10% 22% 15%
Operating Metrics 20 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 2E 25 -$0.50 ROCE nm 11% 37% 32%
0 -$1.00 Dividend/share ($) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ni production (000 tonnes) ## 0.0 2.7 4.7 6.7 ##
2009A
2010E
2011E
2012E
Cu production (000 tonnes) ## 66.7 104.8 155.2 169.2 ## Sensitivity to ±10% Change in Forecast Price Cu Ni
Cash cost (US$/lb Cu) ## 1.98 1.62 1.41 1.54 ## EPS ($) 2011E 0.31 0.04
NAVPS ($) 2.82 0.38
Income Statement 20 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E Key Ratios 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E Reserves & Resources Tonnes (mm) Grade
Revenue ## 460 942 1,808 1,801 Growth At Dec. 31, 2009 Cu (%) Ni (%) Mo (%)
EBITDA ## 174 378 1,016 965 EBITDA YoY 6% 117% 169% -5% Robinson 652.9 0.54%
EBIT ## 89 267 911 840 EBIT YoY 72% 202% 241% -8% Carlota 111.5 0.39%
EBT ## 80 202 646 591 EBT YoY 108% 151% 219% -8% Franke 65.7 0.71%
Reported income ## 80 205 646 591 OpFCF YoY -16% 122% 330% -29% Sierra Gorda 1,129.2 0.42% 0.02%
3-Yr CAGR EPS 302% 228% 6% 3% McCreedy 4.2 0.84% 0.92%
EPS ($) ## 0.71 1.31 3.21 2.94 3-Yr CAGR CFPS 97% 709% 109% 133% Podolsky 8.5 1.03% 0.67%
3-Yr CAGR EBITDA 276% 185% 27% 46% Levack 6.0 1.08% 2.09%
Cash Flow 20 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 3-Yr CAGR EBIT 341% 89% 3% 34% Levack Footwall 0.8 8.09% 1.26%
Earnings after tax ## 80 205 646 591 Operating Summary 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E
+ Depreciation & amortization ## 32 88 101 121 Profitability Robinson 100%
+ Deferred tax ## (16) 22 57 12 EBITDA margin 38% 40% 56% 54% Copper Production (mlbs) 122.5 116.7 142.4 142.4
+ Other ## 46 13 12 12 EBIT margin 19% 28% 50% 47% Cash cost (US$/lb. Cu) $0.96 $1.23 $1.34 $1.19
Funds from operations ## 142 328 816 736 EBT margin 18% 21% 36% 33% Carlota 100%
Operating CFPS (ex minority) ## 1.25 2.05 4.05 3.66 Net margin 18% 22% 36% 33% Copper Production (mlbs) 28.0 30.9 45.1 55.8
- Maintenance capex ## 10 10 29 42 Cash cost (US$/lb. Cu) $2.57 $1.86 $1.80 $1.48
- Capital expenditures ## 80 205 301 351 Coverage Franke 100%
- Debt repayment 0 0 0 0 0 Dividend cover (x) - - - - Copper Production (mlbs) 13.5 40.7 56.9 60.9
Free cash flow ## 51 113 486 344 Interest cover (x) - - - - Cash cost (US$/lb. Cu) $2.43 $2.27 $1.59 $1.54
Free CFPS ## 0.27 0.60 2.57 1.82 McCreedy 100%
Operating free cash flow ## 51 113 486 344 NAV Valuation (1) $mm $/Shr. Copper Production (mlbs) 7.4 5.2 10.5 10.9
Cash cost (US$/lb. Cu) $4.08 $0.11 $0.12 $0.43
Balance Sheet 20 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E Mining assets basic Podolsky 100%
Cash ## 133 346 832 1,268 McCreedy (100%) 67 0.36 Copper Production (mlbs) 25.5 24.5 32.9 35.0
Other current assets ## 247 425 425 425 Podolsky (100%) 210 1.11 Cash cost (US$/lb. Cu) $2.17 $1.23 $0.32 $0.99
Other assets ## 86 221 221 221 Levack (100%) 117 0.62 Levack 100%
Capital assets ## 781 1,980 2,419 2,990 Morrison (100%) 1,131 5.99 Copper Production (mlbs) 2.3 0.0 0.0 2.9
Total assets ## 1,247 2,972 3,897 4,904 Robinson (100%) 581 3.07 Cash cost (US$/lb. Cu) ($3.08) $0.00 ($4.73) ($3.39)
Carlota (100%) 345 1.83 Morrison 100%
Current liabilities ## 163 161 161 161 Franke (100%) 598 3.16 Copper Production (mlbs) 0.0 13.1 54.2 65.1
Debt (LT & current) 0 0 43 43 43 Sierra Gorda (50%) 903 4.78 Cash cost (US$/lb. Cu) $0.00 $0.05 ($0.02) ($0.02)
Other liabilities ## 79 546 603 615 Total NPV of mining assets 3,952 20.93
Preferred equity 0 0 0 0 0 "Total" Cost (US$/lb. Cu) 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E
Common equity ## 1,005 2,222 3,090 4,085 Other assets/exploration Cash operating cost 1.98 1.62 1.41 1.54
Total liabilities and equity ## 1,247 2,972 3,897 4,904 Exploration/other assets 200 1.06 Royalties 0.12 0.14 0.12 0.11
Total other assets 200 1.06 Total cash cost 2.10 1.76 1.53 1.65
Net debt (cash) ## (133) (303) (789) (1,225) Non-cash cost (DDA) 0.19 0.26 0.24 0.30
Corporate (221) (1.17) Total production cost 2.29 2.02 1.77 1.95
Enterprise Value 20 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E Equity investments 270 1.43 G&A 0.09 0.15 0.12 0.11
Market capitalization ## 1,381 3,205 3,205 3,205 Working capital 567 3.00 Interest cost 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net debt - average ## (133) (303) (789) (1,225) Long-term debt - - Total cost 2.38 2.17 1.88 2.06
Preferred equity - average 0 0 0 0 0 Net asset value 4,768 25.25 MANAGEMENT
Minority interest / other 0 0 0 0 0 C$ 25.50 Terry MacGibbon, Chairman
Other non-core 0 0 0 0 0 1. 8% real discount rate on assets, except for Paul Blythe, CEO
Enterprise value ## 1,247 2,902 2,416 1,980 Sierra Gorda (at 10%); CIBC price forecasts and after tax. Web Site www.quadramining.com
81
Strong Copper Production Growth To Overcome Weak 2010 Operating Performance - January 17, 2011
82
Company Update
January 17, 2011 Telecommunications & Cable Services
Rogers Communications Inc.

Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Valuation Too Attractive, Even With Wireless
Sector Weighting:
Concerns
Market Weight
RCI.B-TSX (1/12/11) $35.15 Rogers is our top pick for 2011 in the media, cable & telecom space. We
Key Indices: S&P/TSX 60 continue to believe that wireless offers strong growth ahead despite
competitive pressure. Shareholder gains will come from solid free cash flow
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 16.1% generation, as there remains little need for capital in the medium term.
52-week Range $30.64-$41.64
Float 484.5M Shrs While we expect wireless competitive worries and pricing pressure to
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 1,101,546 persist, at least in the short term, we remain bullish on the long-term
Market Capitalization $20,176.1M fundamentals of wireless, and expect to see continued growth in data in
Dividend/Div Yield $1.28 / 3.7% future quarters, ensuring ARPU remains flat to slightly up by year-end.
Book Value $7.19 per Shr While Rogers' cable segment continues to show signs of maturity, a focus
2011 ROE (E) 38.0% on cost cutting should result in EBITDA growth. Rogers is well positioned to
Net Debt $9,524.0M
take on any TV competition, either by way of traditional incumbents through
Preferred Nil
IPTV offerings or over-the-top Internet offerings.
Given our confidence in Rogers' execution, with a history of strong
Earnings Per Share Current shareholder-friendly policies, we continue to believe Rogers represents good
2009 $2.48A value for investors, with current valuations well below historical levels. We
2010 $3.04E rate Rogers Sector Outperformer with a $44 price target.
2011 $3.10E
P/E
2009 14.2x
2011 11.3x
EBITDA ($ mlns.)
2009A $4,415.0
2010E $4,715.2
2011E $4,850.7
EV/EBITDA
2009A 6.7x
2010E 6.3x
2011E 6.1x
Source: Reuters
Rogers Communications Inc. owns the largest wireless
operator and cable operator in Canada. The company CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
also has an extensive portfolio of media assets, and its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
owns the Toronto Blue Jays of MLB. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.rogers.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Bek, CFA Michael Lee, CFA investment decision.
Bob.Bek@cibc.ca Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca
Tony Rizzi
1 (416) 594-7299
Tony.Rizzi@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Valuation Too Attractive, Even With Wireless Concerns - January 17, 2011
Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI.B - TSX) Sector Outperformer

Current Price : C$35.15 Robert Bek, CFA (416-594-7454) Bob.Bek@cibc.ca
12- To 18- Month Price Target: C$44.00 Michael Lee, CFA (416-594-7907) Michaelc.Lee@cibc.ca
Tony Rizzi (416-594-7299) Tony Rizzi@cibc.ca
EV / EBITDA Multiples 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Company Profile
Rogers Communications - 6.7x 6.3x 6.1x Rogers is a diversified Canadian communications company, engaged in wireless
Shaw Communications - 9.0x 7.9x 6.8x voice and data services, as well as a provider of cable television services, internet
Comcast - 6.6x 6.2x 5.9x broadband and telephony products. Rogers also has a broad portfolio of media
assets (radio, TV and publishing) and owns the Toronto Blue Jays MLB franchise.
Time Warner Cable - 6.7x 6.4x 6.1x
P / E Multiples 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Investment Thesis
Rogers Communications - 14.2x 11.6x 11.2x While there remains concern over the effects of industry pricing pressure on wireless
Shaw Communications - 16.3x 16.4x 12.9x ARPU, we believe the prospects of attracting higher value subs will continue to drive
strong data adoption capable of moderating the effect of voice erosion, leading to
Comcast - 17.9x 18.0x 15.5x
improving ARPU trends in future quarters.
Time Warner Cable - 19.1x 18.2x 14.7x
Given the heightened focus on cost efficiencies and margin expansion, we expect
Key Financial Metrics 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E both free cash flow and dividends to grow at a healthy clip, and with the
implementation of a sizeable share buyback program, we believe Rogers will
continue to deliver strong value to its shareholders.
Free Cash Flow Yield 7.0% 8.6% 9.8% 10.6%
Payout Ratio 38.3% 38.9% 35.8% 35.8% With current concerns over competition and AWS entrant risks overblown, RCI
shares are trading at a material discount to our NAV, providing an attractive entry
Consolidated Capex Intensity 17.8% 15.8% 14.3% 13.9%
point for investors looking to benefit from RCI's strong growth potential for both
Net Debt / EBITDA 2.1x 2.1x 2.0x 1.7x
wireless and cable assets.
Tax Rate 29.7% 25.4% 27.8% 30.0%
Income Statement 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Chart 1: Revenues & EBITDA By Segment (2010E)
100% 3.5%
Revenue 11,335.0 11,731.0 12,250.2 12,756.4 11.8%
OpEx 9,035.0 9,046.0 9,160.0 9,605.6 29.5%
75% 32.5%
EBITDA 4,060.0 4,415.0 4,715.2 4,850.7
Depreciation & Amortization 1,760.0 1,730.0 1,625.0 1,700.0
50%
EBIT 2,300.0 2,685.0 3,090.2 3,150.7
Interest Expense 575.0 647.0 671.6 655.0 67.0%
25% 55.7%
EBT 1,426.0 1,980.0 2,247.6 2,495.8
Tax Expense (Recovery) 424.0 502.0 624.6 748.7
0%
Revenues EBITDA
Net Income 1,002.0 1,478.0 1,623.0 1,747.0
Wireless Cable Media
Adj. FD EPS 1.98 2.48 3.04 3.10
Free Cash Flow 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E Key Operating Statistics (Last Reported Qtr.)
Q3/09 Q3/10 y/y Growth
EBITDA 4,060.0 4,415.0 4,715.2 4,850.7 Wireless ('000):
Less: Total Subs 8,366.0 8,881.0 6.2%
Postpaid Net Adds 167.0 125.0 -25.1%
Capex 2,021.0 1,855.0 1,756.0 1,786.5
Postpaid ARPU $76.79 $74.98 -2.4%
Cash Taxes 3.0 104.0 228.8 251.7
Postpaid Churn 1.06% 1.21%
Cash Interest 575.0 647.0 671.6 655.0 Data % of Network Revenues 22.6% 28.0%
Cable ('000):
Operating Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1,461.0 1,809.0 2,058.8 2,157.6 Basic Subs 2,292.0 2,309.0 0.7%
Operating FCF Per Share 2.29 2.91 3.56 3.73 Digital Subs 1,625.0 1,719.0 5.8%
Internet Subs 1,597.0 1,673.0 4.8%
Telephony Subs 909.0 995.0 9.5%
Total RGUs 6,566.0 6,779.0 3.2%
Source: Thomson, Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
84
Valuation Too Attractive, Even With Wireless Concerns - January 17, 2011
85
Company Update
Semafo Inc.
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Operational Consistency Combined With Growth
Sector Weighting:
Upside
Overweight
SMF-TSX (1/12/11) C$11.23 Semafo has been a model of operational consistency, meeting
Key Indices: None production/cost expectations the past three years. It has also delivered on
expansion plans at its Mana plant, increasing throughput to 6,000 tpd
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM (bedrock), with Phase III completed ahead of schedule and under budget.
52-week Range C$4.11-C$14.44
Float 269.5M Shrs With growth upside at Mana and torque to higher gold prices at Samira Hill
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 2,300,000 and Kiniero, Semafo benefits from a complementary portfolio of assets. The
Market Capitalization $3,083.8M company has one of the highest leverages to gold, with a 10% increase in
Dividend/Div Yield Nil / Nil gold price generating an approximately 23% increase in CFPS.
Book Value $1.71 per Shr Operating in French West Africa, we believe management's French-Canadian
2010 ROE (E) NM background will remain an advantage for the company. Management will
LT Debt $19.3M
continue to focus on creating additional value with the development of the
Preferred Nil
Mana underground. A feasibility study is scheduled for release Q1/11.
In 2010, exploration activities at Mana yielded several new discoveries such
Earnings Per Share Current as Wona SW, Kona, Fofina and Fobiri. A healthy exploration program is
2010 $0.42E being planned for 2011 and we expect ongoing exploration news flow will
2011 $0.80E continue to be a positive catalyst for Semafo shares.
2012 $0.92E
P/E
2010 27.0x
2012 12.3x
Cash Flow Per Share

2010 $0.58E
2011 $0.97E
2012 $1.11E
P/CF
2010 19.6x
2011 11.7x
2012 10.2x
Source: Reuters
Semafo Inc. is a Canadian-based mining company with
gold production and exploration activities in West Africa. CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
Semafo currently operates three gold mines in Burkina its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
Faso, Niger and Guinea. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.semafo.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Cosmos Chiu, CFA Barry Cooper investment decision.
Cosmos.Chiu@cibc.ca Barry.Cooper@cibc.ca
Kevin Chiew
1 (416) 594-7457
Kevin.Chiew@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Operational Consistency Combined With Growth Upside - January 17, 2011
Precious Metals
SEMAFO INC. Cosmos Chiu, (416) 594-7106

Stock Rating: Sector Outperformer cosmos.chiu@cibc.ca
Sector Weighting: Overweight Barry Cooper, (416) 956-6787
12-18 mo. Price Target: C$18.50 barry.cooper@cibc.ca
SMF-TSX (1/12/11): C$11.23 Kevin Chiew, (416) 594-7457
Fiscal Year End December 31 kevin.chiew@cibc.ca
COMPANY DESCRIPTION RESERVES & RESOURCES Tonnes Grade (g/t) Ounces

(in thousands unless otherwise indicated) Au Au
Semafo Inc. is a Canadian-based mining company with gold production and exploration activities in West
Africa. Currently Semafo operates three gold mines in Burkina Faso, Niger and Guinea.
Mana (Burkina Faso)
Proven & Probable 18,437 2.80 1,665
INVESTMENT THESIS Measured & Indicated 11,485 1.86 687
Semafo has successfully commissioned three mines in West Africa. With 100% of its revenue generated Inferred 12,745 2.20 909
from gold and 100% of its production unhedged, Semafo has one of the highest lev erages to gold for both Samira Hill (Niger)
its cash flow and NAV. We believe Semafo is in a position to grow through acquisition in a West African Proven & Probable 8,569 1.92 530
region that remains highly fragmented, in addition to its expansion of Mana. Measured & Indicated 33,201 1.20 1,276
Inferred 18,377 1.01 596
Kiniero (Guinea)
PRICE ASSUMPTIONS 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E Proven & Probable 1,592 3.65 187
Measured & Indicated 9,689 2.06 643
Gold US$/oz $974 $1,225 $1,600 $1,700 Inferred 1,770 2.80 159
Exchange Rate US/CAD $0.88 $0.95 $0.95 $0.95
18x
Cash flo w multiples calculated at
INCOME STATEMENT 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E
$ US1700 go ld price fo r 2012 estimates
(in US$ millions, except per share and indicated amounts) 15x ANV
RGLD
Production (000s ounces) 242 261 280 302 AEM
13x
Cash Operating Costs (US$/oz) $463 $462 $466 $454
Cash Costs (US$/oz) $510 $508 $526 $517 NGD FNV EGO
CF Multiples
10x AGI
KGC AUY SMF
Revenues $241 $316 $449 $514
IAG GG NEM
8x GLW
ABX CG (5%) CG
Expenses MFL ARZ
Operating Expenses $124 $132 $147 $157 MLL
5x GAM
D,D&A, Reclamation $41 $40 $48 $52
GSS NXG
S,G&A $14 $13 $13 $13
3x Cash A djusted NA V multiples calculated using go ld
Other Expenses $7 $7 $5 $5 CGA price o f $ US1200 per o unce and 5% disco unt rate except
Total Ex penses $187 $192 $214 $226 fo r CG that is disco unted at 12% due to additio nal risk
0x
Income Before Tax $54 $124 $235 $288 0.5x 0.8x 1.0x 1.3x 1.5x 1.8x 2.0x 2.3x 2.5x 2.8x
Income Taxes $10 $11 $19 $38 Cash Adjusted NAV Multiples
Net Income $44 $113 $216 $249
PRODUCTION AND COSTS 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
EPS $0.18 $0.42 $0.80 $0.92
CFPS $0.38 $0.58 $0.97 $1.11 Production
Mana '000 oz 154 178 190 200 245
Shares Outstanding 242 272 272 272 Samira Hill '000 oz 57 53 56 62 62
Kiniero '000 oz 32 30 35 40 40
NET ASSET VALUE Discount Ownership NAV NAV/sh Total Cash Costs
(in US$ millions, except per share amounts; based on $1,200 gold) Mana US$/oz $398 $399 $437 $442 $482
Samira Hill US$/oz $724 $772 $761 $680 $606
Mining Assets Kiniero US$/oz $642 $690 $629 $593 $568
Mana - OP 5% 90% $565 $2.08
400 $550
Mana - UG 5% 90% $245 $0.90
350
Samira Hill 5% 80% $156 $0.57
Gold Output (000s oz)
Kiniero 5% 85% $85 $0.31 300

Cash Costs ($/oz)
250 $500
Exploration Potential $137 $0.50
Subtotal $1,188 $4.38 200
150 $450
Balance Sheet 100
Cash $193 $0.71 50
LT Debt $19 $0.07
0 $400
Reclamation $0 $0.00
2009A
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
Subtotal $174 $0.64
Net Asset Value $1,362 $5.02 Mana - OP Mana - UG Samira Hill Kiniero Total Cash Costs
Source: Thomson, Company reports and CIBC World Markets Inc.
87
Operational Consistency Combined With Growth Upside - January 17, 2011
Source: CIBC Trendspotting, Bloomberg.
88
Company Update
January 17, 2011 Oil & Gas - Large Cap
Suncor Energy Inc.

Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Suncor Is Still King Of The Oil Sands
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
SU-TSX (1/12/11) $37.68 We consider Suncor Energy to be a relatively low-risk oil sands investment
Key Indices: Toronto, NYSE given the high contribution of on-stream assets, its strong balance sheet
and the outlook for significant free cash generation – all while the company
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) NM continues to increase oil sands output.
52-week Range $29.91-$39.45
Shares Outstanding 1,573.0M
Float 1,562.0M Shrs We expect Suncor to deliver over a 7% CAGR through 2016 as growth in oil
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 5,337,527 sands of 12% per year more than trumps other declines. Furthermore,
Market Capitalization $59,270.6M Suncor should be able to deliver this growth while generating $1 billion-$4
Dividend/Div Yield $0.40 / 1.1% billion per year of free cash flow.
Net Asset Value $47.19 per Shr We believe investor interest in oil sands continues to increase and that
2011 ROE (E) 9.0% Suncor will re-emerge as a "go-to" oil sands investment. With defined
Net Debt $8,318.0M
growth through 2020 and another 15 billion barrels to develop beyond that,
Preferred Nil
Suncor remains the king of the oil sands.
Suncor is trading at only 80% of our risked NAV estimate versus 92% for
Earnings per Share Current the Integrated group average and 91% and 107% for CVE and IMO,
2009 $0.60A respectively – its closest peers. We believe that as Suncor continues to
2010 $1.43E demonstrate improved reliability, the stock should be a strong performer.
2011 $2.18E
P/E
2009 62.8x
2011 17.3x
Cash Flow per Share

2009 $2.37A
2010 $3.91E
2011 $4.92E
P/CF
2009 15.9x
2010 9.6x
2011 7.7x
Source: Reuters
Suncor is an integrated oil company approximately 85%
levered to oil. Suncor has 392,000 Bbls/d of oil sands CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
capacity that it will continue to grow through 2015. There its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
are no major shareholders. have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
www.suncor.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Andrew Potter, CFA Nick Lupick investment decision.
Andrew.Potter@cibc.ca Nick.Lupick@cibc.ca
Kyle Balaux
1 (403) 216-3401
Kyle.Balaux@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Suncor Is Still King Of The Oil Sands - January 17, 2011
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-TSX, NYD) Sector Outperformer

Current Price: $37.68 Analyst: Andrew Potter, CFA Ph: (403) 221-5700 E-mail: Andrew.Potter@cibc.ca
Price Target: $47.50 Nick Lupick, Ph: (403) 221-5049 E-mail: Nick.Lupick@cibc.ca
Target Return: 26.1% Kyle Balaux, Ph: (403) 216-3401 E-mail: Kyle.Balaux@cibc.ca
Share Price ($) $37.68 Total Risked Asset Value $77,627
Weighted Average Diluted Shares O/S 1,573 Total Risked NAVPS - 9% $47.19
Market Capitalization - $M $59,267 P/NAVPS (Risked) 80%
Net Debt - $mm $10,256 Target P/NAVPS (Risked) 101%
Enterprise Value - $M $69,523 Total Unrisked Asset Value $88,511
Float - mm 1,562 Total Unrisked NAVPS - 9% $53.80
Annual Dividend / Yield $0.40 / 1.1% Target P/NAVPS (UnRisked) 88%
CIBC Deck 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

NYMEX WTI (US$/Bbl) US$61.99 US$79.51 US$85.00 US$90.00 US$95.00 US$95.00 US$95.00
Edmonton Par (C$/Bbl) $66.42 $77.55 $84.12 $89.07 $94.02 $94.02 $94.02
Western Canadian Select (C$/Bbl) $58.61 $67.30 $69.40 $74.23 $75.22 $75.22 $75.22
NYMEX Gas (US$/Mcf) US$3.94 US$4.37 US$4.75 US$5.25 US$6.00 US$6.00 US$6.00
AECO (C$/Mcf) $3.99 $3.99 $4.35 $4.85 $5.50 $5.50 $5.50
CRCK321 (US$/Bbl) US$8.23 US$9.67 US$9.00 US$9.00 US$9.00 US$9.00 US$9.00
FX (US$/C$) $0.88 $0.97 $0.97 $0.97 $0.97 $0.97 $0.97
Operating Statistics 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Western Canada Natural Gas Production - mmcf/d 429 380 372 365 358 350 343
Syria Natural Gas Production - mmcf/d 64 90 90 90 100 100 100
Natural Gas (MMcf/d) 493 470 462 455 458 450 443
Western Canada Oil & Liquids Production - bbl/d 6,313 5,500 5,390 5,282 5,177 5,073 4,972
Oil Sands Production - bbl/d 283,257 295,509 358,125 408,875 486,875 502,500 556,000
North Sea Oil Production - boe/d 53,569 58,650 59,800 59,800 59,800 59,800 59,800
East Coast Oil Production - bbl/d 68,585 62,552 64,200 65,119 62,906 57,800 52,044
Libya Oil Production - bbl/d 35,300 40,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 50,000 50,000
Synthetic Crude Oilsands Production - bbl/d 35,211 34,860 38,850 39,900 42,000 42,028 52,059
Oil & Liquids (bbl/d) 482,234 497,071 566,365 623,976 706,758 717,201 774,874
Production - MBoe/d 564 575 643 700 783 792 849
Natural Gas % 15% 14% 12% 11% 10% 9% 9%
Oil Sands % 56% 57% 62% 64% 68% 69% 72%
Production Per Share (Boe/d per MM FD) 359 366 409 445 498 504 540
Production Growth Per Share - % 2% 12% 9% 12% 1% 7%
Production Per Share (Boe/d per MM FD) - Debt Adjsuted 306 312 349 379 424 429 460
Financial Statistics - $mm (except per share values) 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
Oil Sands EBITDA $4,151 $4,951 $6,985 $7,989 $8,751 $8,754 $10,116
Natural Gas EBITDA $393 $308 $332 $361 $373 $361 $350
East Coast & International EBITDA $3,159 $3,764 $4,097 $4,426 $4,469 $4,342 $4,224
Downstream EBITDA $1,141 $1,054 $1,270 $1,484 $1,498 $1,513 $1,954
Corporate EBITDA ($413) ($256) ($261) ($266) ($272) ($277) ($283)
Total EBITDA $8,288 $9,724 $12,318 $13,874 $14,678 $14,546 $16,198
Total Company Operating Cash Flow $6,560 $7,779 $10,129 $11,423 $11,728 $11,720 $13,141
CFPS (Diluted) $3.91 $4.92 $6.40 $7.22 $7.41 $7.41 $8.30
Operating Income $2,255 $3,456 $5,167 $6,112 $6,442 $6,382 $7,429
Operating EPS (Diluted) $1.43 $2.18 $3.27 $3.86 $4.07 $4.03 $4.69
Net Capex $3,881 $5,087 $8,922 $8,638 $8,868 $8,075 $8,087
Net Capex/Cash Flow - % 59% 65% 88% 76% 76% 69% 62%
Free Cash Flow $2,679 $2,692 $1,207 $2,786 $2,860 $3,645 $5,053
Debt Analysis 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Net Debt - $mm $10,256 $8,318 $7,736 $5,575 $3,340 $320 ($4,109)
Net Debt/Cash Flow 1.6x 1.1x 0.8x 0.5x 0.3x 0.0x nm
Net Debt/EV 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.0x 0.0x nm
Valuation 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

EV / DACF 10.9x 8.2x 6.4x 5.5x 5.2x 4.9x 4.1x
Target EV / DACF 13.2x 10.0x 7.7x 6.7x 6.4x 6.1x 5.2x
P/EPS 26.3x 17.5x 11.7x 9.9x 9.4x 9.5x 8.1x
Target P / EPS 33.1x 21.7x 14.5x 12.3x 11.7x 11.8x 10.1x
90
Suncor Is Still King Of The Oil Sands - January 17, 2011
91
Company Update
January 17, 2011 Banks
Toronto-Dominion Bank
Stock Rating:
Sector Outperformer
Revenue Growth To Drive Outperformance In
Sector Weighting:
F2011
Market Weight
TD-TSX (1/12/11) $74.20 In what is expected to remain a challenging economic environment, we
Key Indices: TSXFinSv believe revenue growth will be a key success factor for the Canadian banks.
Our top pick in the sector is TD Bank, as we expect strength from its
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 10.0% Canadian and U.S. retail franchises will help drive outperformance in F2011.
52-week Range $61.25-$77.37
Float 878.5M Shrs TD recently announced the US$6.3 billion acquisition of auto lender Chrysler
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. 2,121,000 Financial. The purchase complements TD's existing U.S. platform by
Market Capitalization $65,184.7M creating a vehicle to deploy its large U.S. deposit base. Given its strategic
Dividend/Div Yield $2.44 / 3.3% potential and tolerable financial implications, we view the deal favorably.
Fiscal Year Ends October
Book Value $44.29 per Shr While TD left its dividend unchanged in Q4/F10, management noted it will
2011 ROE (E) 13.8% be providing guidance on the dividend in the upcoming quarter. TD's payout
LT Debt $12,506.0M
ratio currently falls in the middle of its target range (based on our F2011
Preferred $3,394.00M
estimates), implying an increase could be feasible in the near term.
Valuation also supports a positive view on the shares. TD trades at a 2%
Earnings Per Share Current premium on F11 earnings relative to peers compared with an 8% pre-crisis
2010 $5.77A 10-yr average premium. On a P/B basis, it trades at a 21% discount to its
2011 $6.36E peers, compared with a historical average discount of 5%. We rate TD SO.
2012 $7.14E
P/E
2010 12.9x
2012 10.4x
Cash EPS excluding one-time items.
Source: Reuters
TD Bank is one of Canada's leading financial institutions,
and offers a full array of financial products and services CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in
to over 18 million customers worldwide. its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
www.tdbank.ca Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
Robert Sedran, CFA Mehmed Rizvanovic, CFA investment decision.
1 (416) 594-7874 (416) 594-7283 See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important
Robert.Sedran@cibc.ca Mike.Rizvanovic@cibc.ca
Meny Grauman, CFA
1 (416) 956-3723
Meny.Grauman@cibc.ca end of this report, where applicable.
Revenue Growth To Drive Outperformance In F2011 - January 17, 2011
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-TSX) Sector Outperformer

Robert Sedran, CFA (416-594-7874) Robert.Sedran@cibc.ca
Current Price: C$74.20 Meny Grauman, CFA (416-594-3723) Meny.Grauman@cibc.ca
12- To 18-Month Price Target: C$84.00 Mike Rizvanovic, CFA (416-594-7283) Mike.Rizvanovic@cibc.ca
All Figures in $ millions, except per share data (excl. one-time items)
KEY MULTIPLES F2009A F2010A F2011E F2012E OUR THESIS
P/E Multiple 13.5x 12.9x 11.7x 10.4x Our positive bias on this name has been based on our belief that the combination of its strong personal
Peer average 11.6x 10.6x and commercial banking businesses – on both sides of the border – should position it well relative to its
peers in a slower growing environment. Performance in the most recent quarter supports our thesis
Q4-10
with solid revenue growth in most businesses and the fact that unusually high expenses should settle
P/BVPS 1.7x
down in the coming quarters. TD remains rated Sector Outperformer.
Peer average 2.1x
OPERATING PERFORMANCE F2009A F2010A F2011E F2012E SEGMENTED EARNINGS CONTRIBUTION
Core cash EPS $5.50 $5.77 $6.36 $7.14
120%
Annual EPS growth 1.5% 4.9% 10.1% 12.3%
Core cash ROE 13.7% 13.7% 13.8% 14.4% 100% 21% 20% 22%
19%
Efficiency ratio 61.1% 60.3% 59.8% 58.6%
80% 11% 19% 17%
Operating leverage (YoY) 9.3% (1.5% ) 1.1% 2.3% 23%
18% 12% 12%
CREDIT METRICS F2009A F2010A F2011E F2012E 60% 12%
(1)
Loan loss rate 0.83% 0.63% 0.46% 0.39%
40%
57% 59% 61%
F2009A Q4-10 51%
20%
Gross impaired loans 2,311 3,456
Specific ACLs 558 677 0%
-6% -10% -13%
Total ACLs 2,639 2,587 -8%
Classical Coverage ratio
(2)
114% 75% -20%
Specific ACLs to GILs 24% 20% F2008A F2009A F2010A Q4-10
General ACLs as % of Gross Loans & BAs 0.78% 0.68% Canadian P&C Banking Wealth Management Wholesale Banking U.S. P&C Banking Corporate
KEY EARNINGS DRIVERS F2009A F2010A F2011E F2012E FORWARD P/E MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP (based on consensus estimates)
Core net interest income 10,254 10,808 11,612 12,416
150%
% change 23.6% 5.4% 7.4% 6.9%
10-y ear Av erage Relativ e Fw d P/E: 101% Current Relativ e Fw d P/E: 102%
(3)
Total capital markets related revenue 3,833 3,248 3,063 3,155
130%
% change 88.2% (15.3%) (5.7%) 3.0%
Provision for credit losses 2,016 1,685 1,320 1,200
110%
% change 93% (16%) (22%) (9%)
Non-interest expenses 11,669 12,056 12,287 12,699
% change 18.3% 3.3% 1.9% 3.3% 90%
CAPITAL MEASURES F2009A F2010A F2011E F2012E

70%
Tier 1 capital ratio 11.3% 12.2% 12.8% 13.8%
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Tangible common equity to RWA 9.4% 11.2% 11.8% 12.6%
Tangible common equity to tangible assets 3.3% 3.7% 4.0% 4.3% Current Relativ e P/E 6-month Mov ing Av erage
Risk Weighted Assets 189,585 199,910 215,168 229,159 Plus 1 Standard Dev iation Minus 1 standard Dev iation
LOAN BOOK F2009A F2010A F2011E F2012E P/BVPS MULTIPLE RELATIVE TO PEER GROUP
Residential mortgages 65,665 71,507 74,410 79,249
160%
Personal and credit cards 102,509 109,750 121,857 129,781
10-y ear Av erage Relativ e P/B = 95% Current Relativ e P/B = 79%
Business and government 87,322 91,072 94,770 100,932
140%
Gross Loans 255,496 272,329 291,037 309,962
Acceptances 9,946 7,757 8,233 8,738 120%
Total Gross Loans & Acceptances 265,442 280,086 299,270 318,701
100%
80%
Notes:
60%
(1) PCLs as a % of av erage net loans and acceptances (ex cl. repos).
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
(2) Total ACLs as a % of GILs.

(3) Ex cludes gains/(losses) on inv estment securities.
93
Revenue Growth To Drive Outperformance In F2011 - January 17, 2011
94
Technical Analysis Disclaimer – For security-specific analysis: The opinions expressed in the technical analysis
sections of this report are based upon a methodology that examines the past trading patterns and trends of a
security for various technical indicators in an effort to forecast future price movements. Technical analysis is one
of many analytical tools that may be useful in making an informed investment decision. However, the opinions
expressed herein, including technical levels of trading trends, price resistance and/or support, are not intended to
serve as precise “fundamental price targets” and should not be relied upon as such. The issuers or securities
discussed in these sections are not continuously followed by the technical analyst. Investors should not expect
continuing analysis or additional reports from the technical analyst relating to the securities discussed in this
report. The technical analyst may not file updates in the event that the facts, trends or opinions expressed in this
report change. We make no guarantees as to the accuracy, thoroughness or quality of the information
presented, and are not responsible for errors or omissions. CIBC World Markets Inc. may engage in trading
strategies or hold positions in the security(ies) discussed in this report and may abandon such trading strategies
or unwind such positions at any time without notice. The comments and views expressed in the technical
analysis sections are those of the technical analyst. CIBC World Markets Inc. may also publish research reports
on the issuers discussed herein that may communicate different or contradictory opinions, recommendations and
price targets based upon a “fundamental” analysis of their businesses. We recommend that clients contact their
CIBC World Markets Inc. representative to request copies of relevant equity research reports published by
fundamental analysts for further information.
95
96
97
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Analyst Certification: Each CIBC World Markets research analyst named on the front page of this research report, or
at the beginning of any subsection hereof, hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed herein
accurately reflect such research analyst's personal views about the company and securities that are the subject of this
report and all other companies and securities mentioned in this report that are covered by such research analyst and (ii)
no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed by such research analyst in this report.
Potential Conflicts of Interest: Equity research analysts employed by CIBC World Markets are compensated from
revenues generated by various CIBC World Markets businesses, including the CIBC World Markets Investment Banking
Department. Research analysts do not receive compensation based upon revenues from specific investment banking
transactions. CIBC World Markets generally prohibits any research analyst and any member of his or her household from
executing trades in the securities of a company that such research analyst covers. Additionally, CIBC World Markets
generally prohibits any research analyst from serving as an officer, director or advisory board member of a company that
such analyst covers.
In addition to 1% ownership positions in covered companies that are required to be specifically disclosed in this report,
CIBC World Markets may have a long position of less than 1% or a short position or deal as principal in the securities
discussed herein, related securities or in options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon.
Recipients of this report are advised that any or all of the foregoing arrangements, as well as more specific disclosures
set forth below, may at times give rise to potential conflicts of interest.
98
Important Disclosure Footnotes for Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Covered
by CIBC World Markets Inc.:
Stock Prices as of 01/17/2011:

5N Plus, Incorporated (2g) (VNP-TSX, C$6.68, Sector Outperformer)
Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (2f, 7) (AEM-NYSE, US$69.27, Sector Performer)
Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI-TSX, C$16.75, Sector Outperformer)
Allied Nevada Gold Corp. (2g) (ANV-AMEX, US$24.45, Sector Outperformer)
Angle Energy Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (NGL-TSX, C$7.53, Sector Outperformer)
ARC Resources Ltd. (2a, 2e, 2g, 7) (ARX-TSX, C$25.24, Sector Performer)
Aurizon Mines Ltd. (2g) (ARZ-TSX, C$6.38, Sector Outperformer)
Barrick Gold Corporation (2f, 2g, 7) (ABX-NYSE, US$47.08, Sector Outperformer)
Baytex Energy Corp. (2g) (BTE-TSX, C$48.05, Sector Performer)
Black Diamond Group Limited (2g) (BDI-TSX, C$21.66, Sector Outperformer)
Bombardier Inc. (2a, 2d, 2e, 2f, 2g, 7, 12) (BBD.B-TSX, C$5.67, Sector Outperformer)
Bonavista Energy Corporation (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (BNP-TSX, C$28.85, Sector Performer)
Bonterra Energy Corp. (2g) (BNE-TSX, C$52.99, Sector Performer)
Brookfield Office Properties Canada REIT (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (BOX.UN-TSX, C$21.92, Sector Outperformer)
C&C Energia Ltd. (2g) (CZE-TSX, C$12.05, Sector Outperformer)
CAE Inc. (2g, 4a, 4b, 9) (CGT-NYSE, US$5.97, Sector Outperformer)
Canadian National Railway Co. (2g, 7, 9) (CNR-TSX, C$68.14, Sector Outperformer)
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (2g, 7, 9) (CP-TSX, C$66.42, Sector Outperformer)
Celestica Inc. (2g, 3a, 3c, 6a, 7, 12) (CLS-NYSE, US$9.84, Sector Outperformer)
Cenovus Energy Inc. (2g, 7, 9) (CVE-TSX, C$32.07, Sector Performer)
Centerra Gold Inc. (2g) (CG-TSX, C$17.22, Sector Underperformer)
CGA Mining Limited (2g, 7) (CGA-TSX, C$2.64, Sector Outperformer)
Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (CSH.UN-TSX, C$8.43, Sector Outperformer)
Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. (2g) (CDE-NYSE, US$24.87, Sector Performer)
Crescent Point Energy Corp. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (CPG-TSX, C$42.77, Sector Outperformer)
Daylight Energy Ltd. (2a, 2e, 2g) (DAY-TSX, C$9.90, Sector Outperformer)
Eldorado Gold Corporation (2g) (EGO-NYSE, US$17.12, Sector Outperformer)
Empire Company Limited (2g, 7, 13) (EMP.A-TSX, C$53.72, Sector Outperformer)
EnCana Corporation (2g, 7, 9) (ECA-NYSE, US$31.51, Sector Outperformer)
Endeavour Silver Corp. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (EDR-TSX, C$6.04, Sector Performer)
Enerplus Corporation (2g, 7) (ERF-TSX, C$32.21, Sector Performer)
First Majestic Silver Corp. (2g) (FR-TSX, C$12.02, Sector Performer)
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM-TSX, C$119.23, Sector Outperformer)
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (FVI-TSX, C$4.14, Sector Outperformer)
Franco-Nevada Corporation (2g, 4a, 4b, 7) (FNV-TSX, C$30.19, Sector Outperformer)
Gammon Gold Inc. (2g) (GAM-TSX, C$7.69, Sector Underperformer)
Genworth MI Canada Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (MIC-TSX, C$27.30, Sector Outperformer)
Gold Wheaton Gold Corp. (GLW-TSX, C$4.88, Sector Performer)
Goldcorp Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2f, 2g, 3a, 3c, 7) (GG-NYSE, US$40.59, Sector Outperformer)
Golden Star Resources Ltd. (2g) (GSS-AMEX, US$3.86, Sector Performer)
H&R REIT (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 7) (HR.UN-TSX, C$20.23, Sector Outperformer)
Hecla Mining Company (2g) (HL-NYSE, US$9.58, Sector Underperformer)
IAMGOLD Corporation (2g) (IAG-NYSE, US$17.42, Sector Outperformer)
Imperial Oil Limited (2g) (IMO-TSX, C$42.26, Sector Underperformer)
Jean Coutu Group (PJC) Inc. (2g, 7, 12) (PJC.A-TSX, C$9.27, Sector Outperformer)
Kinross Gold Corporation (2g) (KGC-NYSE, US$16.80, Sector Performer)
Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. (2g) (KGI-TSX, C$14.17, Sector Outperformer)
99
Important Disclosure Footnotes for Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Covered
by CIBC World Markets Inc.: (Continued)

March Networks Corp. (2g) (MN-TSX, C$4.10, Sector Outperformer)
Medusa Mining Limited (2g) (MLL-TSX, C$7.20, Sector Outperformer)
NAL Energy Corporation (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (NAE-TSX, C$13.07, Sector Outperformer)
New Gold Inc. (2g) (NGD-TSX, C$8.39, Sector Performer)
Newmont Mining Corporation (2g, 3a, 3b) (NEM-NYSE, US$55.72, Sector Performer)
Northgate Minerals Corporation (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (NXG-AMEX, US$2.78, Sector Outperformer)
Onex Corporation (2g, 12) (OCX-TSX, C$32.64, Sector Outperformer)
Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp. (2g) (PRE-TSX, C$32.07, Sector Outperformer)
Pan American Silver Corp. (2a, 2e, 2g) (PAAS-NASDAQ, US$35.07, Sector Outperformer)
Pengrowth Energy Corporation (2g, 3a, 3c, 7) (PGF-TSX, C$13.39, Sector Performer)
Penn West Petroleum Ltd. (PWT-TSX, C$25.08, Sector Outperformer)
Perpetual Energy Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (PMT-TSX, C$4.06, Sector Underperformer)
PetroBakken Energy Ltd. (2g) (PBN-TSX, C$21.20, Sector Outperformer)
Petrominerales Ltd. (2g) (PMG-TSX, C$37.23, Sector Outperformer)
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (PEY-TSX, C$18.70, Sector Performer)
Progress Energy Resources Corp. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (PRQ-TSX, C$13.00, Sector Outperformer)
Quadra FNX Mining Ltd. (2a, 2e, 2g) (QUX-TSX, C$17.01, Sector Outperformer)
Rogers Communications Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 3a, 3c, 7, 13) (RCI.B-TSX, C$35.90, Sector Outperformer)
Royal Gold, Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (RGLD-NASDAQ, US$47.73, Sector Performer)
Semafo Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (SMF-TSX, C$10.50, Sector Outperformer)
Shaw Communications Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g, 3a, 3c, 13) (SJR.B-TSX, C$20.96, Sector Outperformer)
Shoppers Drug Mart Corporation (2g) (SC-TSX, C$39.00, Sector Performer)
Silver Standard Resources Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (SSRI-NASDAQ, US$23.44, Sector Underperformer)
Silver Wheaton Corp. (2g) (SLW-NYSE, US$31.70, Sector Outperformer)
Silvercorp Metals Inc. (2a, 2c, 2e, 2g) (SVM-TSX, C$10.15, Sector Performer)
Suncor Energy Inc. (2g, 7, 9) (SU-TSX, C$38.19, Sector Outperformer)
Taseko Mines Limited (2g) (TKO-TSX, C$5.99, Sector Performer)
TD Bank (2a, 2c, 2d, 2e, 2f, 2g, 3a, 3c, 7) (TD-TSX, C$76.10, Sector Outperformer)
Teck Resources Limited (2a, 2b, 2c, 2d, 2e, 2f, 2g, 3a, 3c, 7, 9, 12) (TCK.B-TSX, C$61.98, Sector Outperformer)
Total Energy Services (2g) (TOT-TSX, C$13.81, Sector Performer)
Trilogy Energy Corp. (2g) (TET-TSX, C$12.95, Sector Performer)
Vermilion Energy Inc. (2g, 7) (VET-TSX, C$45.89, Sector Performer)
Yamana Gold Inc. (2a, 2e, 2g) (AUY-NYSE, US$11.52, Sector Underperformer)
Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Not Covered by CIBC World Markets Inc.:

Comcast (CMCSA-NASDAQ, US$22.72, Not Rated)
Emergency Medical Services Corporation (EMS-NYSE, US$66.35, Not Rated)
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR-NASDAQ, US$140.84, Not Rated)
Skilled Healthcare Group Inc. (SKH-NYSE, US$11.30, Not Rated)
Spirit AeroSystems, Inc. (SPR-NYSE, US$23.30, Not Rated)
100
Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Not Covered by CIBC World Markets Inc.:
(Continued)

Time Warner Cable (TWC-NYSE, US$65.61, Not Rated)
TransCanada Corp. (TRP-TSX, C$37.15, Not Rated)
Important disclosure footnotes that correspond to the footnotes in this table may be found in the "Key to
Important Disclosure Footnotes" section of this report.
101
Key to Important Disclosure Footnotes:

1 CIBC World Markets Corp. makes a market in the securities of this company.
2a This company is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed investment banking services
in the past 12 months.
2b CIBC World Markets Corp. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company in the
past 12 months.
2c CIBC World Markets Inc. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company in the
past 12 months.
2d CIBC World Markets Corp. has received compensation for investment banking services from this company in
the past 12 months.
2e CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for investment banking services from this company in the
past 12 months.
2f CIBC World Markets Corp. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services
from this company in the next 3 months.
2g CIBC World Markets Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services
from this company in the next 3 months.
3a This company is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed non-investment banking,
securities-related services in the past 12 months.
3b CIBC World Markets Corp. has received compensation for non-investment banking, securities-related services
from this company in the past 12 months.
3c CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for non-investment banking, securities-related services
from this company in the past 12 months.
4a This company is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed non-investment banking,
non-securities-related services in the past 12 months.
4b CIBC World Markets Corp. has received compensation for non-investment banking, non-securities-related
services from this company in the past 12 months.
4c CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for non-investment banking, non-securities-related
services from this company in the past 12 months.
5a The CIBC World Markets Corp. analyst(s) who covers this company also has a long position in its common
equity securities.
5b A member of the household of a CIBC World Markets Corp. research analyst who covers this company has a
long position in the common equity securities of this company.
6a The CIBC World Markets Inc. fundamental analyst(s) who covers this company also has a long position in its
common equity securities.
6b A member of the household of a CIBC World Markets Inc. fundamental research analyst who covers this
company has a long position in the common equity securities of this company.
7 CIBC World Markets Corp., CIBC World Markets Inc., and their affiliates, in the aggregate, beneficially own 1%
or more of a class of equity securities issued by this company.
8 An executive of CIBC World Markets Inc. or any analyst involved in the preparation of this research report has
provided services to this company for remuneration in the past 12 months.
9 A senior executive member or director of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ("CIBC"), the parent company
to CIBC World Markets Inc. and CIBC World Markets Corp., or a member of his/her household is an officer,
director or advisory board member of this company or one of its subsidiaries.
10 Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ("CIBC"), the parent company to CIBC World Markets Inc. and CIBC
World Markets Corp., has a significant credit relationship with this company.
11 The equity securities of this company are restricted voting shares.
12 The equity securities of this company are subordinate voting shares.
13 The equity securities of this company are non-voting shares.
14 The equity securities of this company are limited voting shares.
102
CIBC World Markets Inc. Price Chart

For price and performance information charts required under NYSE and NASD rules, please visit CIBC on the web at
http://apps.cibcwm.com/sec2711 or write to CIBC World Markets Inc., Brookfield Place, 161 Bay Street, 4th Floor,
Toronto, Ontario M5J 2S8, Attn: Research Disclosure Chart Request.
CIBC World Markets Inc. Stock Rating System

Abbreviation Rating Description
Stock Ratings
SO Sector Outperformer Stock is expected to outperform the sector during the next 12-18 months.
SP Sector Performer Stock is expected to perform in line with the sector during the next 12-18 months.
SU Sector Underperformer Stock is expected to underperform the sector during the next 12-18 months.
NR Not Rated CIBC World Markets does not maintain an investment recommendation on the stock.
R Restricted CIBC World Markets is restricted*** from rating the stock.
Sector Weightings**
O Overweight Sector is expected to outperform the broader market averages.
M Market Weight Sector is expected to equal the performance of the broader market averages.
U Underweight Sector is expected to underperform the broader market averages.
NA None Sector rating is not applicable.
**Broader market averages refer to the S&P 500 in the U.S. and the S&P/TSX Composite in Canada.
"Speculative" indicates that an investment in this security involves a high amount of risk due to volatility and/or liquidity issues.
***Restricted due to a potential conflict of interest.
Ratings Distribution*: CIBC World Markets Inc. Coverage Universe

(as of 17 Jan 2011) Count Percent Inv. Banking Relationships Count Percent
Sector Outperformer (Buy) 140 46.4% Sector Outperformer (Buy) 135 96.4%
Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral) 127 42.1% Sector Performer (Hold/Neutral) 119 93.7%
Sector Underperformer (Sell) 28 9.3% Sector Underperformer (Sell) 26 92.9%
Restricted 6 2.0% Restricted 6 100.0%
*Although the investment recommendations within the three-tiered, relative stock rating system utilized by CIBC World Markets Inc.
do not correlate to buy, hold and sell recommendations, for the purposes of complying with NYSE and NASD rules, CIBC World
Markets Inc. has assigned buy ratings to securities rated Sector Outperformer, hold ratings to securities rated Sector Performer, and
sell ratings to securities rated Sector Underperformer without taking into consideration the analyst's sector weighting.
Important disclosures required by IIROC Rule 3400, including potential conflicts of interest information, our system for
rating investment opportunities and our dissemination policy can be obtained by visiting CIBC World Markets on the web
at http://researchcentral.cibcwm.com under 'Quick Links' or by writing to CIBC World Markets Inc., Brookfield Place, 161
Bay Street, 4th Floor, Toronto, Ontario M5J 2S8, Attention: Research Disclosures Request.
103
Legal Disclaimer
This report is issued and approved for distribution by (a) in Canada, CIBC World Markets Inc., a member of the
Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (“IIROC”), the Toronto Stock Exchange, the TSX Venture
Exchange and CIPF, (b) in the United Kingdom, CIBC World Markets plc, which is regulated by the Financial Services
Authority ("FSA"), and (c) in Australia, CIBC Australia Limited, a member of the Australian Stock Exchange and regulated
by the ASIC (collectively, "CIBC World Markets") and (d) in the United States either by (i) CIBC World Markets Inc. for
distribution only to U.S. Major Institutional Investors (“MII”) (as such term is defined in SEC Rule 15a-6) or (ii) CIBC
World Markets Corp., a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”). U.S. MIIs receiving this report
from CIBC World Markets Inc. (the Canadian broker-dealer) are required to effect transactions (other than negotiating
their terms) in securities discussed in the report through CIBC World Markets Corp. (the U.S. broker-dealer).
This report is provided, for informational purposes only, to institutional investor and retail clients of CIBC World
Markets in Canada, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any
jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. This document and any of the products and information
contained herein are not intended for the use of private investors in the United Kingdom. Such investors will not be able
to enter into agreements or purchase products mentioned herein from CIBC World Markets plc. The comments and views
expressed in this document are meant for the general interests of wholesale clients of CIBC Australia Limited.
The securities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all types of investors. This report does not take into
account the investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any particular client of CIBC World Markets.
Recipients should consider this report as only a single factor in making an investment decision and should not rely solely
on investment recommendations contained herein, if any, as a substitution for the exercise of independent judgment of
the merits and risks of investments. The analyst writing the report is not a person or company with actual, implied or
apparent authority to act on behalf of any issuer mentioned in the report. Before making an investment decision with
respect to any security recommended in this report, the recipient should consider whether such recommendation is
appropriate given the recipient's particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. CIBC World
Markets suggests that, prior to acting on any of the recommendations herein, Canadian retail clients of CIBC World
Markets contact one of our client advisers in your jurisdiction to discuss your particular circumstances. Non-client
recipients of this report who are not institutional investor clients of CIBC World Markets should consult with an
independent financial advisor prior to making any investment decision based on this report or for any necessary
explanation of its contents. CIBC World Markets will not treat non-client recipients as its clients solely by virtue of their
receiving this report.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is
made regarding future performance of any security mentioned in this report. The price of the securities mentioned in
this report and the income they produce may fluctuate and/or be adversely affected by exchange rates, and investors
may realize losses on investments in such securities, including the loss of investment principal. CIBC World Markets
accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of information contained in this report, except to the extent that
liability may arise under specific statutes or regulations applicable to CIBC World Markets.
Information, opinions and statistical data contained in this report were obtained or derived from sources believed to
be reliable, but CIBC World Markets does not represent that any such information, opinion or statistical data is accurate
or complete (with the exception of information contained in the Important Disclosures section of this report provided by
CIBC World Markets or individual research analysts), and they should not be relied upon as such. All estimates, opinions
and recommendations expressed herein constitute judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change
without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice. Since the levels and bases of taxation
can change, any reference in this report to the impact of taxation should not be construed as offering tax advice on the
tax consequences of investments. As with any investment having potential tax implications, clients should consult with
their own independent tax adviser. This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, Internet web sites.
CIBC World Markets has not reviewed the linked Internet web site of any third party and takes no responsibility for the
contents thereof. Each such address or hyperlink is provided solely for the recipient's convenience and information, and
the content of linked third-party web sites is not in any way incorporated into this document. Recipients who choose to
access such third-party web sites or follow such hyperlinks do so at their own risk. Although each company issuing this
report is a wholly owned subsidiary of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ("CIBC"), each is solely responsible for its
contractual obligations and commitments, and any securities products offered or recommended to or purchased or sold
in any client accounts (i) will not be insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ("FDIC"), the Canada Deposit
Insurance Corporation or other similar deposit insurance, (ii) will not be deposits or other obligations of CIBC, (iii) will
not be endorsed or guaranteed by CIBC, and (iv) will be subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the
principal invested. The CIBC trademark is used under license.
© 2011 CIBC World Markets Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized use, distribution, duplication or disclosure
without the prior written permission of CIBC World Markets is prohibited by law and may result in prosecution.
104

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Institutional Equity Research

January 17, 2011 Off The Press

Top Picks Of 2011

All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated. 11-106911 © 2011

Exhibit 1. Five-year History Of Annual Top Picks Returns

2006 (Publishing Date – January 5, 2006) 10.30% 14.51%

Exhibit 2. Top Pick Performance For 2010

We asked Peter Gibson, Head of Portfolio Strategy, to provide us with a macro

Exhibit 3. Top Picks Of 2011

Do You Believe In Magic?

Relatively high structural unemployment in the U.S. and continued weakness in

Exhibit 4. 2011 Forecasts Summary

Risks For The Fed

Biggest Risk Is Deflation

The Fed Is Trying To Hold The 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield

We cannot over-emphasize the significance we attach to the Fed’s goal of

The Circular Irony Of Quantitative Easing, Higher Oil Prices

Exhibit 5. 10-year U.S. Treasury Floors And Ceilings

2003 ceiling (5.9%)

Bond Yield (%)

4% 1997 floor 4.1

Exhibit 6. S&P 500 Index And ROE (Forward And Trailing)

S&P 500 Index

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Exhibit 7. Yield Curve

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Exhibit 8. Bid-to-Cover Ratio

Source: CIBC World Markets Inc.

Self-sustaining U.S. Economic Recovery Still Depends On

Exhibit 9. The U.S. Economy (Equities, Cash And Real Estate)

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Could This Be 2004 Because We Are Recovering From

Exhibit 10. S&P 500 Total Return (2000 To Present)

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Resembles 2004? A Minor Positive Supporting A Growing

What Pattern Is The Fed Hoping For?

In Canada, Stocks Still Outperform Bonds And T-bills

Not The Case In The U.S.

Exhibit 11. Five-year Historical Returns: TSX, 10-yr Canadian Gov't.

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

TSX Versus S&P 500

Exhibit 13. Five-year Historical Returns: TSX And S&P 500

CIBC Small Cap

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Exhibit 15. High Correlation Between TSX And CRB Returns

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Other Important Circular Implications Of Quantitative

Economic theory suggests that China cannot maintain an independent monetary

U.S. Dollar Devaluation

Higher Oil Prices

Exhibit 16. TSX Sector Returns: Financials, Materials And Energy

Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Devalue The U.S. Dollar, Higher Gold Prices

TSX Earnings Forecasts; Key Is

Median Values: Key Data Points For The TSX

Trailing Now Leading Forward Earnings

Exhibit 17. Key Data Points For The TSX

Forward Earnings And Traditional Valuation

Attractive Financial Sector Yield; Now Just Make Sure ROE

Very Large Cash Holdings On The Balance Sheet, Especially