Weekly Report

28th Feb - 05th Mar 2011

AGRI MAR
AGRI MARKET

>> “ SPICES RISES ON EXTENDED BUYING”

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 J E E R A (Jan)
JEERA ZOOMS ON EXTENDED BUYING
Weekly Report

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
The Jeera futures extended the volatility last week. Ÿ Lower level buying Script Levels
From opening itself futures started trading down on Ÿ Good domestic demand
profit booking on higher levels. Increased arrivals of R3 19600
fresh crop further added to the down side. However, R2 18280
towards closing futures witnessed good recovery on R1 17820
buying at lower levels and ended the week on PP 16960
higher note. The Jeera futures are projected to trade MARKET OVERVIEW
S1 16500
positive on active short covering next week. Good Last week Jeera did our target of 17000 S2 15640
domestic demand might support the prices. above the level of 16650 and even closed
S3 14320
However, increasing arrivals at spot market might above it. Last week Jeera remained bullish
pull down the prices on profit booking. Daily arrivals throughout the week and was not
at spot market of Unjha were around 10,000 bags sustaining at lower levels. For the next
including 7000 bags of new crop (Each bag= week Jeera has resistance at 17500 and
55Kg.). As per trade sources, though domestic support at 16900.
buying is good but increasing arrivals may weigh on
prices in coming days. As per trade sources,
prevailing rainy conditions in Rajasthan and some
parts of Gujarat is supporting the prices despite of
STRATEGY
poor export demand. According to derivative
analysis, prices and volumes are rising while open Jeera is in an upward consolidation phase
interest is falling. Market has a lot of traders and one should use the strategy of buy on
initiating from both sides but larger traders may be lower levels. If in the coming week Jeera
liquidating into the higher prices. The market may sustains above the level of 17500 then we
be vulnerable to large price swings as shorter time can expect the level of 17900, and if it
frame traders attempt to trade from both sides of sustains below 16900 then we can see the
the market but liquidating before end of- day. Often level of 16600.
a signal of a market turns near-term or continued
volatility.

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 G U A R S E E D (Jan)
GUARSEED GAINS ON ACTIVE BUYING
Weekly Report

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
Guar gum prices have breached its record high levels Ÿ Active buying Script
of $ 1700 per tonne made in the year 2000 and
Levels
Ÿ Weak arrivals
touched almost $2100 per tonne recently. High R3 3203
demand from the oil exploration sector and poor R2 3085
supply from the limited number of producers
(mainly Pakistan) have led to this rally in the Guar
R1 3033
gum prices. Guar prices are also influenced by the PP 2967
crude oil prices as Guargum is used in oil well MARKET OVERVIEW
S1 2915
drilling. Strength in Crude oil Prices since last few Last week Guarseed was bullish but was S2 2849
days had also led to added to the bullish market facing stiff resistance at the psychological
sentiments in Guar. Arrivals of Guar seed on S3 2731
level of 3000 and was not able to sustain at
Thursday improved to around 35000 bags slightly
higher than Wednesday. Average daily arrivals higher levels. For the next week Guarseed
during the last week stood at 40000 bags. has resistance at 3025 and support at
According to the Rajasthan farm Department, Guar 2890.
seed output in Rajasthan in the current season is
estimated at 14.9 lakh tonnes. The forecasted
Indian output this year is much higher than the 4.5
lakh tonnes of 2009-10 and 9.5-10 lakh bags in
2008-09. Guar gum exports during the first 6
months of the financial year (April –September STRATEGY
2010) stood at 168234 MT, up by 73658 MT
compared to 94576 MT during the period April- For next week in Guar seed traders should
September 2009 (Source: Agri watch) In the current go for buying at lower levels strategy, if
year, market participants are expecting exports to Guar seed sustains above the level of 3025
cross 3, 00,000 tonnes owing to an increase in we can see the level of 3070, and below
demand from the oil sector with the rise in crude oil 2890 it can touch the level of 2845.
prices and lower supplies from the second largest
Guar producing country, i.e. Pakistan because of
floods. Guar futures in the intraday are expected to
recover tracking the firmness in the crude oil prices
and revival in the export demand. In the short term
(2 - 3 weeks), we expect Guar prices to trade
sideways to down due to decline in the overseas
orders at higher rates and may trade in the range of
Rs.2800 and Rs. 3050 per qtl.
In the medium term (2 months), prices would be
dependent on the overseas demand scenario.

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 S O YA B E A N ( F e b )
SOYBEAN FALLS ON PROFIT BOOKING
Weekly Report

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
NCDEX March Soybean futures traded with mixed Ÿ Lack of fresh fundamentals Script Levels
note amid subdued trading activity on lack of fresh Ÿ Improved weather conditions
fundamentals. Prices fell in the morning hours on R3 2699
account of improved weather conditions in South R2 2564
America. Brazil's production is expected to touch 72 R1 2502
million tonnes this year as compared to 68.7 million PP 2429
tonnes last year. Export demand of domestic soy MARKET OVERVIEW
S1 2367
meal may decline slightly due to higher production Last week Soybean was bearish for most S2 2294
estimates of South America. Higher production part of the week but we saw some good
estimates of domestic rabi oilseeds this year as S3 2159
short covering on the last two days of the
compared to last year also provided support to the
week. For the next week Soybean has
bears. However, an hour before closing the market
resistance at 2500 and support at 2350.
prices improved slightly on account of short
covering and value buying at lower levels and finally
ended mildly lower as compared to previous day's
close. Daily arrivals of Soybean in Madhya Pradesh
were at 40,000 bags and around 2000 bags in
Indore Mandi. Soybean prices are expected to trade
range bound amid subdued trading activity due to STRATEGY
lack of fresh fundamentals. Soybean is moving in an upward channel
on charts and one should look for buying
opportunities at lower levels, if Soybean
sustains above the level of 2500 we can see
the level of 2550, and on the downside if it
sustains below the level of 2350 we can
see Soybean at 2300 level.

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 C H A N A (Jan)
CHANA FALLS ON SELLING PRESSURE
Weekly Report

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
Chana futures prices fell drastically on Thursday as Ÿ Selling pressure Script
the traders were liquidating their positions. The
Levels
Ÿ Profit booking
decrease in the activities across the spot markets and R3 2833
the increasing exerted pressure on the prices. The R2 2690
prices were almost close to lower circuit levels
R1 2597
during the noon session and slightly recovered from
the lows towards the closing. The decrease in prices, PP 2547
volume and open interest indicates that market
MARKET OVERVIEW
S1 2454
might recover next week. The increasing trend in the Last week Chana did our target of 2555 S2 2404
Chana prices is likely to continue next week. Chana below the level of 2585 and even closed
futures might open down initially and recover S3 2261
below it, for the entire previous week
towards the end of the week due to short covering.
Chana was bearish and was not sustaining
The concerns of the weather might support the
prices as it is a hurdle for the arrivals and harvesting at higher levels. For the next week Chana
of the crop. Arrivals from M.P are noticed in Indore has resistance at 2565 and support at
spot markets in small quantities. Crop arrivals across 2440.
south India has almost come to an end. In Rajasthan
the harvesting is likely to start in ten days time. In the
month ahead, the spot markets are expected to be
flooded with the fresh crop arrivals. The
government is concerned about the food inflation STRATEGY
levels and the budget session ahead is weighing on Overall trend of Chana is consolidated and
the market sentiments.
one should go for selling at higher levels
strategy in it. For the coming week if
Chana sustains below 2440 level we can
see it at 2400 and above 2565 we can
expect the level of 2600.

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 W E E K LY M A R K E T U P D AT E
Weekly Report

Weekly
Exch- Expiry Commodity Previous Qty. Open
Symbol Price Unit Open High Low Close Net TurnOver
ange Date Name Close Traded Interest *
(Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Jeera RS/QUINTAL 16080 16500 17419 16098 17370 75417 1290 11163 111,628.06

PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Pepper RS/QUINTAL 23535 23550 23940 22345 22735 40592 -800 8905 89,316.12
TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 20-APR-11 Turmeric RS/QUINTAL 9732 9810 10380 9810 9950 19240 218 6085 18,049.46
GARSEDJDR NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Guarseed RS/QUINTAL 2923 2910 3020 2902 2981 1280920 58 145280 341,558.22
GARGUMJDR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Guargum RS/QUINTAL 8571 8525 8915 8432 8796 64130 225 39595 47,673.84

CHARJDDEL NCDEX 20-APR-11 Chana RS/QUINTAL 2711 2701 2752 2613 2617 423360 -94 88290 98,663.91
SYBEANIDR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Soybean RS/QUINTAL 2494.5 2490 2533.5 2390 2481 467190 -13.5 222330 101,752.54

SYOREFIDR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Soy Oil Refined RS/10KGS 645.7 648.7 660.8 616.65 649 673910 3.3 77180 379,106.20

RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Rape Mustard Seed RS/20KGS 2918 2921 3005 2851 2912 396870 -6 74220 105,502.47

COCUDAKL NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Cotton Seed Oil Cake RS/QUINTAL 1282 1282 1291 1205 1238 323460 -44 73330 36,855.73
GURCHMUZR NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Gur RS/40KGS 888 888.5 897.5 880.5 887.5 20590 -0.5 11360 3,762.67
POTATO NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Potato RS/QUINTAL 681.8 686 717.5 679 705 90270 23.2 18990 5,447.01

KAPASSRNR NCDEX 29-APR-11 Kapas RS./20KG 1198.6 1191.1 1212 1068 1159.4 32724 -39.2 3454 67,768.55
WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Wheat RS/QUINTAL 1309.4 1310 1315 1245.8 1260 14490 -49.4 5640 1,756.99
MENTHA OIL MCX 31-MAR-11 Mentha oil RS/KG 1098.2 1099 1158 1091.7 1140 14642 41.8 5540 58942.34
CARDAMOM MCX 15- MAR -11 Cardamom RS/KG 1216.8 1223 1238 1050 1099 11085 -117.8 1378 1213427

* Turnover Till Friday

Exchange Commodity Closing Price % Change

NCDEX JEERA 17370 8.02

NCDEX PEPPER 22735 -3.40
NCDEX TURMERIC 9950 2.24
NCDEX GUARSEED 2981 1.98
NCDEX GUARGUM 8796 2.63
NCDEX CHANA 2617 -3.47
NCDEX SOYBEAN 2481 -0.54
NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED 649 0.51
NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED 2912 -0.21
NCDEX COTTONSEED OIL CAKE 1238 -3.43
NCDEX GUR 887.5 -0.06
NCDEX POTATO 705 3.40
NCDEX KAPAS 1159.4 -3.27
NCDEX WHEAT 1260 -3.77
NCDEX MENTHA OIL 1140 3.81
NCDEX CARDAMOM 1099 -9.68

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 W E E K LY M A R K E T U P D AT E
Weekly Report

Weekly Gainers Weekly Losers

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change
JEERA 18-MAR-11 17370 8.02 CARDAMOM 15- MAR -11 1099 -9.68
MENTHA OIL 31-MAR-11 1140 3.81 WHEAT 18-MAR-11 1260 -3.77
POTATO 18-MAR-11 705 3.40 CHANA 20-APR-11 2617 -3.47

Weekly Pivots
Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
Jeera (Mar) 19604.33 18283.33 17826.67 16962.33 16505.67 15641.33 14320.33
Pepper (Mar) 26196.67 24601.67 23668.33 23006.67 22073.33 21411.67 19816.67
Turmeric (Apr) 11186.67 10616.67 10283.33 10046.67 9713.33 9476.67 8906.67
Guarseed (Mar) 3203.67 3085.67 3033.33 2967.67 2915.33 2849.67 2731.67
Guarsgum (Mar) 9680.33 9197.33 8996.67 8714.33 8513.67 8231.33 7748.33
Chana (Mar) 2938.67 2799.67 2708.33 2660.67 2569.33 2521.67 2382.67
Soybean (Mar) 2755.17 2611.67 2546.33 2468.17 2402.83 2324.67 2181.17
Refined Soya Oil (Mar) 730.45 686.30 667.65 642.15 623.50 598.00 553.85
Mustard (Apr) 3230.67 3076.67 2994.33 2922.67 2840.33 2768.67 2614.67
Cottonseed Oil Cake (Mar) 1416.67 1330.67 1284.33 1244.67 1198.33 1158.67 1072.67
Gur (Mar) 922.50 905.50 896.50 888.50 879.50 871.50 854.50
Potato (Mar) 777.50 739.00 722.00 700.50 683.50 662.00 623.50
Kapas (Apr) 1434.47 1290.47 1224.93 1146.47 1080.93 1002.47 858.47
Mentha Oil (Mar) 1262.50 1196.20 1168.10 1129.90 1101.80 1063.60 997.30
Cardamom (Mar) 1505.00 1317.00 1208.00 1129.00 1020.00 941.00 753.00

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