Professional Documents
Culture Documents
business environment
2 November 2010
1
Disclaimer
Cautionary statements:
This should be read in conjunction with the documents filed by Aviva plc (the “Company” or “Aviva”) with the United States Securities and Exchange
Commission (“SEC”). This announcement contains, and we may make verbal statements containing, “forward-looking statements” with respect to certain
of Aviva‟s plans and current goals and expectations relating to future financial condition, performance, results, strategic initiatives and objectives.
Statements containing the words “believes”,“intends”, “expects”, “plans”, “will,” “seeks”, “aims”, “may”, “could”, “outlook”, “estimates” and “anticipates”, and
words of similar meaning, are forward-looking. By their nature, all forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty. Accordingly, there are or will be
important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. Aviva believes factors that could cause
actual results to differ materially from those indicated in forward-looking statements in the presentation include, but are not limited to: the impact of difficult
conditions in the global capital markets and the economy generally; the impact of new government initiatives related to the financial crisis; defaults and
impairments in our bond, mortgage and structured credit portfolios; changes in general economic conditions, including foreign currency exchange rates,
interest rates and other factors that could affect our profitability; the impact of volatility in the equity, capital and credit markets on our profitability and
ability to access capital and credit; risks associated with arrangements with third parties, including joint ventures; inability of reinsurers to meet obligations
or unavailability of reinsurance coverage; a decline in our ratings with Standard & Poor‟s, Moody‟s, Fitch and A.M. Best; increased competition in the U.K.
and in other countries where we have significant operations; changes to our brands and reputation; changes in assumptions in pricing and reserving for
insurance business (particularly with regard to mortality and morbidity trends, lapse rates and policy renewal rates), longevity and endowments; a cyclical
downturn of the insurance industry; changes in local political, regulatory and economic conditions, business risks and challenges which may impact
demand for our products, our investment portfolio and credit quality of counterparties; the impact of actual experience differing from estimates on
amortisation of deferred acquisition costs and acquired value of in-force business; the impact of recognising an impairment of our goodwill or intangibles
with indefinite lives; changes in valuation methodologies, estimates and assumptions used in the valuation of investment securities; the effect of various
legal proceedings and regulatory investigations; the impact of operational risks; the loss of key personnel; the impact of catastrophic events on our
results; changes in government regulations or tax laws in jurisdictions where we conduct business; funding risks associated with our pension schemes;
the effect of undisclosed liabilities, integration issues and other risks associated with our acquisitions; and the timing impact and other uncertainties
relating to acquisitions and disposals and relating to other future acquisitions, combinations or disposals within relevant industries. For a more detailed
description of these risks, uncertainties and other factors, please see Item 3, “Risk Factors”, and Item 5, “Operating and Financial Review and Prospects”
in Aviva‟s Annual Report Form 20-F as filed with the SEC on 30 March 2010. Aviva undertakes no obligation to update the forward looking statements in
this announcement or any other forward-looking statements we may make. Forward-looking statements in this presentation are current only as of the date
on which such statements are made.
2
Agenda
Q&A
10.45 Coffee
Q&A
12.30 Lunch
3
Q3 update
4
Continuing strong results in Q3 2010
Long term savings sales New business IRR Capital generation on target
£28.6bn £1.5bn
12%
£27.1bn 6% 50%
2% £1.0bn
10% points
HY IFRS
GI & Health NWP GI COR
operating profit*
98%
£7.3bn £1,270m
4% 97%
£7.1bn 21%
£1,049m
6
GI returning to growth: 97% COR (96% in the UK)
IFRS NAV
424p
394p
NAV
• Increase principally due to earnings
HY10 Proforma in Q3
3Q10
• Proforma Q3 includes 10p additional
MCEV NAV benefit from agreed closure of pension
497p scheme
461p
HY10 Proforma
3Q10 8
Aviva today
9
Significant transformation under One Aviva
twice the value
£m
6,000 13% reduction in costs in 2009
5,750 267
121 387
5,500
133 388 5,144
209
5,000 119
4,500
4,000
UK
Inflation
FY09
Europe ex DL
Exceptionals FY08
Exceptionals FY09
Delta Lloyd
FX, M&A +
2,000
5,000
1,500
850
1,000 4,500
500
0 4,000 800
HY09 HY10 HY09 HY10
Notes:
• Life income includes underwriting margins, investment return and new business margin
• GI net written premiums includes both GI and health
• Expenses: Life expenses include acquisition and administration expenses. GI expenses include commission and
other operating expenses 12
Strategy in a changing world
13
Strategy in a changing world
Solvency I and „light touch‟ regulation Solvency II and greater regulatory scrutiny
14
Strategy in a changing world
Should we be a composite?
15
Where should we operate?
16
Aviva is currently in 30 countries
Canada China
USA Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Singapore
South Korea
Sri Lanka
Europe and Middle East Taiwan
Australia*
Belgium Poland
Czech Republic Romania
France Russia
Germany Slovakia
Hungary Spain
Countries in which Aviva operates Ireland Turkey
* Aviva Investors only
Italy UAE
Lithuania UK
Netherlands Luxembourg*
17
Geographic focus in UK & Europe
Conditions met
UK No 1 61m
Countries must provide France Top 10 Life 62m
either:
• $100 million Ireland Top 3 4m
contribution to IFRS
profits and 12% Italy Top 10 Life 59m
ROCE No 1 Pension
Poland No 2 Life
38m
or
• $1 billion of franchise Spain Top 5 Life 45m
value
Russia Top 5 Life 139m
No 1 Pension
Turkey
No 4 Life
77m
18
Europe has highest potential growth in L&P assets in
the near term...
2009 Assets
1.3
8.1
1.5
3.9
1.6
($ trillion)
930 2,400
2,000
400
380
1,000
240
170
100
90
70
20
0
Ireland Poland Turkey Italy Spain France UK Russia Other EU Total
countries
Source: “Mind the gap – quantifying Europe’s pensions gap,” Aviva & Deloitte, September 2010 20
We have significant competitive strengths in the UK
and Europe
Sales
Aviva has 5.5% of Life and 2.5% of GI market share in our European markets
21
We have significant competitive strengths in the UK
and Europe
Profit
Aviva has 5.5% of Life and 2.5% of GI market share in our European markets
22
Maximising the value of Delta Lloyd
23
Managing for profit in North America
or
• $1 billion of franchise value USA • No 2 in the EIA market
Today Future • Net capital contributor
Profit • Organic growth with
emphasis on life
ROCE
• No acquisitions, no plans to
Franchise n/a n/a enter variable annuity market
24
Growing value in Asia Pacific
China
Today Future
Profit ?
ROCE ?
Franchise
Countries must provide either:
India
• $100 million contribution to IFRS Today Future • Continued franchise growth
profits and 12% ROCE • Long term increased focus
Profit ?
or on key markets
ROCE ? • Exit Taiwan
• $1 billion of franchise value Franchise
Asian countries
• Franchise value
maximised through a
pan-Asian business
26
Increasing focus and depth
UK Canada
France US
Ireland China
Italy India
Poland
Spain
Russia
Turkey
80% of our Life & GI profit already comes from these 12 countries
27
Should we be a composite?
Excel in Life
Excel in GI
Composite
Insurer
insurer
Drive out
additional
composite
value
28
Resilient and balanced earnings
HY £m
600 Savings
Risk
500
• Asset & liability
duration matching
400 provides a predictable
net income stream
29
Diversification brings wide-ranging benefits
30
What do we need to be better at?
31
What do we need to be better at?
Marketing and • Multi channel access to customers • Pan European distribution model
distribution • Bancassurance leadership • UK Bancassurance gains
expertise • Brand strength • Material increase in brand awareness
32
Short term financial deliverables
33
Summary
34
Driving profit and dividend growth
35
Delivering value in the new
business environment
Q&A
36