Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2 JJuly
l 2010
Disclaimer
Cautionary statements:
This should be read in conjunction with the documents filed by Aviva plc (the “Company” or “Aviva”) with the United States Securities and
Exchange Commission (“SEC”). This announcement contains, and we may make verbal statements containing, “forward-looking
statements” with respect to certain of Aviva’s plans and current goals and expectations relating to future financial condition, performance,
results, strategic initiatives and objectives. Statements containing the words “believes”,“intends”, “expects”, “plans”, “will,” “seeks”, “aims”,
“may”, “could”, “outlook”, “estimates” and “anticipates”, and words of similar meaning, are forward-looking. By their nature, all forward-
looking statements involve risk and uncertainty. Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause actual results to differ
materiallyy from those indicated in these statements. Aviva believes factors that could cause actual results to differ materiallyy from those
indicated in forward-looking statements in the presentation include, but are not limited to: the impact of difficult conditions in the global
capital markets and the economy generally; the impact of new government initiatives related to the financial crisis; defaults and
impairments in our bond, mortgage and structured credit portfolios; changes in general economic conditions, including foreign currency
exchange rates, interest rates and other factors that could affect our profitability; the impact of volatility in the equity, capital and credit
markets on our profitability and ability to access capital and credit; risks associated with arrangements with third parties
parties, including joint
ventures; inability of reinsurers to meet obligations or unavailability of reinsurance coverage; a decline in our ratings with Standard &
Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch and A.M. Best; increased competition in the U.K. and in other countries where we have significant operations;
changes to our brands and reputation; changes in assumptions in pricing and reserving for insurance business (particularly with regard to
mortality and morbidity trends, lapse rates and policy renewal rates), longevity and endowments; a cyclical downturn of the insurance
industry; changes in local political, regulatory and economic conditions, business risks and challenges which may impact demand for our
products, our investment portfolio and credit quality of counterparties; the impact of actual experience differing from estimates on
amortisation of deferred acquisition costs and acquired value of in-force business; the impact of recognising an impairment of our goodwill
or intangibles with indefinite lives; changes in valuation methodologies, estimates and assumptions used in the valuation of investment
securities; the effect of various legal
g p proceedingsg and regulatory
g y investigations;
g the impact
p of operational
p risks; the loss of keyy personnel;
p
the impact of catastrophic events on our results; changes in government regulations or tax laws in jurisdictions where we conduct
business; funding risks associated with our pension schemes; the effect of undisclosed liabilities, integration issues and other risks
associated with our acquisitions; and the timing impact and other uncertainties relating to acquisitions and disposals and relating to other
future acquisitions, combinations or disposals within relevant industries. For a more detailed description of these risks, uncertainties and
other factors,
factors please see Item 3, 3 “Risk
Risk Factors”
Factors , and Item 5,
5 “Operating
Operating and Financial Review and Prospects”
Prospects in Aviva’s
Aviva s Annual Report
Form 20-F as filed with the SEC on 30 March 2010. Aviva undertakes no obligation to update the forward looking statements in this
announcement or any other forward-looking statements we may make. Forward-looking statements in this presentation are current only as
of the date on which such statements are made.
2
Capital, cash and profits
A d
Andrew M
Moss
Group Chief Executive
3
Capital, cash and profits
Our challenge
• to simplify and clarify how we make money and our cash
generating ability
4
Capital, cash and profits
P t i k Regan
Patrick R
Chief Financial Officer
5
Capital, cash and profits
We aim to explain
• How
H we use th
the cash
h
1 Overview
1.
3 Embedded value
3. al e reporting
£2.0bn Sustainable
2009 IFRS operating
p gpprofit IFRS operating
p gpprofit
£b
£bn
Asia Pac
100%
N.Am 2.3
2.2
GI & 2.0
80% Non-life 2
Europe
u ope
60%
40% Life 1
UK
20%
0% 0
by region by business 2007 2008 2009
£2.0bn Sustainable
2009 IFRS operating
p gpprofit IFRS return on capital
p
%
Asia Pac 14
100% 13
N.Am 12
12
GI & 11
80% Non-life
10
Europe
u ope
60% 8
6
40% Life
4
UK
20%
2
0% 0
by region by business 2007 2008 2009
Note: IFRS return on capital based on operating profit post-tax and MI Overview Capital EV IFRS 9
Key elements of profits, capital and cash
IFRS
Capital generated
Internal dividends
Central liquidity
External dividends
£2.5bn
Corporate
p centre
Investment in
and debt Dividend
new business
interest costs
Note: 2009 numbers net of tax and minorities Overview Capital EV IFRS 11
Reconciliation of IFRS to net capital generation
2009
£bn Total
IFRS operating profit before corporate costs
2.8
and interest
DAC
C and other ( )
(0.5)
Note: 2009 numbers net of tax and minorities Overview Capital EV IFRS 13
Analysis of capital generation and utilisation
Corporate
p centre
Investment in
and debt Dividend
new business
interest costs
IFRS
Capital generated
Internal dividends
Central liquidity
External dividends
Dividends
paid in year
p y 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
UK 9 9 9 9 8
(Reattribution)
France 9 9 9 9 9
Ireland 9 9 9 9 9
Italy
y 8 9 9 9 9
Poland 9 9 9 9 9
Spain 9 9 9 9 9
Canada 9 9 9 9 9
Delta Lloyd
y 9 9 9 9 8
(IPO)
Over 2005-9 the regions paid an average yearly dividend of £1bn to Centre
2009
£bn
40
4.0
1.5 (0.5)
3.5 0.2 (0.6)
3.0
(0.5)
2.5
2.2
07
0.7
2.0
1.5 1.4
1.0
0.5
0.0
Opening Dividend DL IPO and Inherited Debt raised Interest and Dividends Closing
centre from regions disposals estate central costs net of scrip centre
liquidity payment liquidity
18
Focused on generation
and disciplined allocation of capital
Capital generation
((net of tax and minorities)) A diversified range
g of life
£bn and GI businesses with
2.5bn 1.5bn 53 million customers
2.5 • Generating material and
Non- predictable capital flows
life
£0.6bn • With an effective franchise
2.0 to profitably attract and
generate further capital
Life
1.5 £1.9bn
1.3bn
Key levers for growth:
1 0bn
1.0bn • Increasing in-force
in force capital
1.0 generation
• Increasing GI profits
• More efficient capital
p
05
0.5
investment
0.0
Operating
O ti IInvestment
t t 2009 underlying
d l i 2010 expected
t d
capital in new capital underlying
generated business generated capital
Overview Capital EV IFRS 19
Strong historic life capital generation
2009
£bn
£bn
2.2 UK 0.4
2.0 Europe 07
0.7
2 1.9
North America 0.2
Other ((0.1))
0 Total 1.9
2007 2008 2009
Capital
Overview
generation
EV IFRS 20
Resilience and improvement of capital generation
Capital
Overview
generation
EV IFRS 21
Strong future life capital generation
Expected, undiscounted
real world cash flows • c. £
£8 billion undiscounted real world
£bn
cash flows to emerge over next 5 years
35 £33bn from existing book
0
First Total
5 yrs
£bn
2009 Underwriting g expertise
p
12
1.2
1.1 £bn • Ongoing GI pricing action
across all regions contributes
to 98% COR target
1 UK GI 0.4
• Focus on p pricing
g and
risk selection
0.8 Europe GI 0.1
0.7 0.7 Operational improvements
• UK GI turning the corner into
0.6 profitable g
p growth
06
0.6 DL GI 01
0.1
• European market penetration
North America • Continuing improvement in
0.4 0.1
GI Canadian profitability
• Continuing focus on cost
0.2 Other non-life (0.1) savings, £350 million savings
achieved in the UK
since 2007
0 Total 0.6
Aviva Investors
2006 2007 2008 2009 • Continuing drive for
external FUM
COR 94% 100% 98% 99%
Capital
Overview
generation
EV IFRS 23
Capital generation enables sustained and
growing dividend payments
Interest
Stable – average 6% interest on
and corporate
hybrid debt
centre costs
Capital
Overview
generation
EV IFRS 24
Disciplined investment in new business
I
Improving
i ttrend
d off new business
b i value
l per £1 capital
it l iinvested
t d
Capital
Overview
allocation
EV IFRS 25
2009 actual performance
Capital
2009 Sales invested in Payback
£bn PVNBP life IRR period
N th America
North A i 45
4.5 03
0.3 7% 14 years
US Capital for
- 0.2
yr 1 only
y y
Capital
Overview
allocation
EV IFRS 26
Actions taken for improvement
Capital
Overview
allocation
EV IFRS 27
Returns in line with assumptions
2005* (22)
2006*
2006 (6)
2007 (135)
2008 (84)
2009 239
Total (8)
Capital
* 2005-6 on an EEV basis Overview
allocation
EV IFRS 28
Embedded Value reporting
29
Embedded Value reporting –
introducing additional ‘Real World’ EV reporting
MCEV:
• is
i a useful
f l ttooll ffor risk
i k managementt
• underpins Solvency II
31
Summary life profit drivers
792 784 1% 2,949 2,758 7% (950) (1,159) 18% (1,350) (1,325) (2)%
Underwriting margin
£m
2008 2009
1500
1000
500
Acquisition Admin DAC, AVIF
expenses expenses & Other
0
New Underwriting Unit Participating Spread Expected
bus ess
business margin
ag linked
ed business
bus ess margin
ag return
etu
margin margin
-500
-1000
-1500
Life
Overview Capital EV
IFRS 33
New business margin
Key:
Driver
Variance
2009 2008
to 2008
APE 3 745
3,745 4 277
4,277 (12)%
Improved new business margin on
Margin 21% 18% 3ppt APE due to pricing actions
particularly in UK, US and Asia
New business margin reflects
premiums less initial capital
reserves
Life
Overview Capital EV
IFRS 34
Underwriting margins
Key:
Driver
Underwriting margin
Variance
2009 2008
683 567 20% to 2008
Life
Overview Capital EV
IFRS 35
Investment return
Investment return
The return we are Our share of the The return we are The return we make
making on unit bonus to making on our on shareholder net
linked business policyholders on annuity and non- assets
with profit and other linked investment
participating business
business
Life
Overview Capital EV
IFRS 36
Investment return
Key:
Driver
Investment return
Variance
2,949 2,758 7% 2009 2008
to 2008
Key:
Driver
Variance
2009 2008
to 2008
Life
Overview Capital EV
IFRS 38
Linking expenses to the profit driver analysis
5 000
5,000
119
GI & Health expenses 1 628
1,628 1 909
1,909 (15)%
388
4,500
Other non-life expenses 737 947 (22)%
on
09
yd
388 382 2%
DL
nc.
nd
nd
&A
g,
g,
UK
Restructuring
Restructuring
FY0
FY0
Inflatio
Delta Lloy
Europe ex D
integration an
integration an
brand FY08 8
brand FY09 9
FX & M&
Group))
Other (in
Net written
8,492 9,248 (8)% Average
g ((0.8))
premiums 4 6% 5.4%
4.6% 5 4%
rate ppt
Claims (4.1)
66.7% 62.6% Average
ratio ppt
assets 19.1 18.9 1%
Commission 2.3 £bn
19.7% 22.0%
ratio
ti pptt
0.8
Expense ratio 12.6% 13.4%
ppt
((1.0))
COR 99% 98%
ppt
94%
Claims ratio
Non-life
Overview Capital EV
IFRS 41
Fund management profit drivers – Aviva Investors
Key:
Driver
£m 2009 2008
Aviva investors 115 114 Variance
2009 2008
to 2008
Other 18 9 Pre-tax operating profit
Fund 115 114 1%
133 123
Management
Average
fees 17.7 16.4 1.3
Cost/income ratio
((bps)
p )
72% 71% (1)%
Average
assets 231 237 (3)%
£bn
Non-life
Overview Capital EV
IFRS 42
Conclusion
43
Capital, cash and profits
Q&A
44
Appendix
45
Inherited estate reattribution
46
Life IFRS profit drivers – income
New business margin 9 9 9 9 New business cash flows (excluding acquisition expenses) based on actual volumes
p y
Premiums less initial reserves. Includes expected investment return to end of year
Excludes variances in operating experience or assumptions
Underwriting margin
Expenses 9 Protection ‐ Allowance in valuation basis for expenses
Mortality 9 9 9 Protection ‐ Allowance in valuation basis for mortality less actual claims & benefits
UL ‐ Charges made to policyholders less actual claims & benefits
Expected change in liability for any guarantees or options subject to mortality risk
Persistency 9 9 9 All ‐ Actual reserves released less surrender benefits paid
AMC 9 Ann al management charges on nit linked b siness (based on e pected in estment ret rns)
Annual management charges on unit linked business (based on expected investment returns)
Excludes risk charges and costs
Expected change in liability for any guarantees or options that depend on investment return
Participating business 9 UK/Ireland‐ shareholders' share of actual bonus declared
Continental participating shareholders' share
Continental participating shareholders share
US ‐ closed block profits
Spread margin 9 9 Spread ‐ Expected investment return less unwind of liability/amounts credited to policyholders
Excludes risk charges and costs
Protection ‐ Expected investment return less valuation discount rate applied to opening liability
Expected change in liability for any guarantees or option that depend on investment return
Expected return 9 Return on assets covering solvency margin and additional surplus
Based on longer term rates of return applied to expected average funds under management
updated for fund flows and out flows
47
Life IFRS profit drivers – expenses
Acquisition expenses 9 9 9 9 New business acquisition commission and expenses less deferred costs
Admin expenses 9 9 9 9 9 Maintenance expenses and renewal commission on existing business
DAC/AVIF amortisation 9 9 9 9 Amortisation of DAC, AVIF and impact of regulatory changes, reserving methodology changes
and other or other one‐off items
IFRS life operating profit
p gp
Investment variances 9 9 9 9 9 AMCs based on actual investment return less AMCs based on expected returns
and economic Spread based on actual investment return less spread based on expected returns
assumption changes Variance in current actual and assumed future investment return less expected investment return
Total IFRS life profit
48
2009 IFRS result
49