ICAO/IMO-JWG/6-WP/4

11/9/98

Chapter 4 Search Planning and Evaluation Concepts

4.1 Overview
4.2 Evaluating the situation
4.3 Estimating the Distress Incident Location
4.4 Survivor motion after the Distress incident
4.5 Total probable Error of Position
4.6 Search Planning and Evaluation Factors
4.7 Optimum Search Effort Allocation
4.8 Overland Search Planning for Missing Aircraft
4.9 Computer-based Search Planning Aids

4.8 Overland Search Planning for Missing Aircraft

4.8.1 In order for a search planning strategy to be implemented successfully, it must meet the
following criteria:

a. Simplicity. If a strategy is not simple it will not get used;

b. Acceptability. Any search strategy must be acceptable to both the policy makers
and the operators; and

c. Empirically Sound. A strategy must be supported by real crash data.

4.8.2 In the absence of information to the contrary, it may be assumed that the most probable
area within which a missing aircraft will be found is along the intended track from Last Known
Position (LKP) to intended destination and within a reasonable distance either side of track. A
study of crash location data confirmed that definitive area sizes could be established in relation
to Probability of Whereabouts (PW) values of an incident location. This analysis has resulted in
the Overland Search Area Definition (OSAD) and the Mountain VFR (MVFR) search methods.
A description of these two methods follows:

a. OSAD. This search plan requires a LKP, a search area that covers a point-to-point
route or track of a missing aircraft and a known destination. This planning method could
therefore be used for locating aircraft on either VFR of IFR flights; and

b. MVFR. This search plan is to be used in mountainous regions in which visual flight
routes are accepted, published and flown. The MVFR method applies in cases where the
intended route of the missing aircraft involves navigation by following features such as
valley floors, rivers and roads (in mountainous terrain) as opposed to point-to-point
navigation.
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These methods were developed for cases where there is little information to go on besides an
LKP and a destination. If the SAR Mission Coordinator has evidence to suggest that these
methods are not applicable, then they should be modified or not used.

OVERLAND SEARCH AREA DEFINITION (OSAD) METHOD

4.8.3 Based on a studies of aeronautical incidents (Canada/ATGOR Staff Note 2/87, “A New
Search Method Based on an Analysis of Air Distress Cases: 1981-86), it was concluded that:

a. there was no correlation between the offset and the intended track length;

b. there was a weak correlation between the actual and intended track lengths with a
large spread of crash positions along track;

c. there was a concentration of crash locations near the LKP and the destination; and

d. there was no correlation between the offset and the actual track length.

From this study, two definitive probability areas were established and categorized according to
the priority with which they should be searched. This method takes into account the variations in
known crash positions along track and across track, combining these variations in such a way as
to assign the probabilities of coverage of a crash position by using rectangular areas described
below.

The use of OSAD requires the following information:

a. the Last Known Position (LKP);

b. the intended route; and

c. the intended destination.

4.8.4 The OSAD method applies to all intended track lengths. The two rectangular search
areas used in the OSAD method are depicted in figure _____ and are defined below:

a. Area One - A rectangle extending to 10 NM each side of the track beginning 10 NM

before the LKP and extending 10 NM beyond the destination. Based on the data that was
used in this study, this area should include approximately 79% of crash sites; and

b. Area Two - A rectangle extending to 15 NM each side of the track beginning at the
LKP and extending 15 NM beyond the destination. Area Two includes that portion of
Area One where overlapping occurs. Based on the data that was used in this study, this
area should include about 83% of crash sites and little is to be gained in expanding
beyond this 15 NM boundary.
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Figure ____ - OSAD Areas

4.8.5 Where an enroute turning point includes a track direction change of greater than 20
degrees the outside boundary of each area shall be an arc using the turning point as centre and a
radius equal to 10NM for Area One and 15NM for Area Two, (see Figure ____).

Figure_____ - OSAD Turning Point

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Normally there is no requirement to adjust the search areas in an inland search. However,
adjustment of the search area would have to be considered if any of the three factors listed in
paragraph 4.8.3 should change during the search.

OSAD SEARCH STRATEGY AND SEQUENCE

4.8.6 There is no single sequence of search types or patterns which will be suitable for all
searches. For searches where the OSAD method is used, the following search sequence is
suggested, unless circumstances dictate otherwise:

a. Phase I

(1) Carry out track line searches along the missing aircraft's intended track and
thoroughly check in the vicinity of the LKP and destination;

(2) Carry out electronic searches;

(3) Carry out track line searches for cooperative targets/survivors covering 15
NM either side of the missing aircraft's intended track.

b. Phase II - search Area One in the following sequence, for all track lengths:

(1) the last quarter of the track length from the centre of the track outwards to the
edge of the 10 NM rectangle placing equal priority to the entire area;

(2) the third quarter of the track length from the centre of the track outwards to
the edge of the 10 NM rectangle placing equal priority to the entire area;

(3) the first quarter of the track length from the centre of the track outwards to the
edge of the 10 NM commencing at the LKP placing equal priority to the entire
area;

(4) the second quarter of the track length from the centre of the track outwards to
the edge of the 10 NM rectangle placing equal priority to the entire area; and

(5) the 10 NM search area past the destination followed by the 10 NM search
area prior to the LKP commencing at the destination and LKP respectively,

c. Phase III - expand the search to include Area Two using the same sequence described
in paragraph "b" above.

THE MOUNTAIN VISUAL FLIGHT RULES (MVFR) METHOD

4.8.7 A SAR study focusing on searches in mountainous regions (Canada/ATGHQ/Ops Rsch

Adv Report R1/85 “Search Planning Strategy in the Mountainous Regions of Canada”) revealed
distinct differences in the PW between incidents in located mountainous regions or other regions.
This study anaylyzed aeronautical cases during the period 1968 to 1984 that were conducted in
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mountainous regions in Visual Metrogical Conditions (VMC). Some important results of the
study were:

a. although there tend to be more crash sites between one-half and three-quarters of the
way along the intended track, a substantial portion occur along the other areas of the
track;

b. very few crash sites are found before the last known position or beyond the intended
destination;

c. there is no relationship between the distance an aircraft goes without crashing and the
offset from the intended track;

d. crash sites tend to cluster close to the intended track with the PW decaying sharply as
you move away from the track; and

e. the minimum search area for a given PW always includes the entire length of the
track.

4.8.8 Two probability areas were defined for cases involving VFR flight plans in mountainous
regions (see Figure ____).

a. Area A - This is an area which stretches along the entire track of the missing aircraft,
from the last known position to the intended destination, and extends 5 NM either side of
the track. Based on previous data and assuming the intended track is known, this area
should include approximately 77% of crash sites. In order to include cases where the
crash occurs shortly after takeoff or on approach for landing, this area is extended 5 NM
before the LKP and 5 NM beyond the destination. Note that if the missing aircraft's
intended route is not known with any certainty, all likely routes must be covered or
another search planning method used; and

b. Area B - This is an area which stretches along the entire track of the missing aircraft
from the last known position to the destination and extends 10 NM either side of the
track. Area B also extends 10 NM before the LKP and 10 NM beyond the destination to
include takeoff and landing incidents. Note that Area B also includes all of Area A. This
area should contain approximately 87% of crash sites, based on the data that was used in
this study.
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Figure _____ - MVFR Search Area

MVFR SEARCH STRATEGY AND SEQUENCE

4.8.9 Given that an aircraft is missing on a VFR flight in a mountainous region and all the
preliminary checks have been completed without success, the following search procedure is
recommended:

a. Phase I

(1) Carry out track line searches along the missing aircraft's intended VFR route
and any likely route and thoroughly check the LKP and destination for
take-off/landing incidents;

(2) Carry out an electronic search to detect any Emergency Locator transmitter
(ELT) signals; and

(3) Carry out a track line search for a cooperative target/survivor covering 10 NM
either side of the missing aircraft's intended track. This search should include all
likely tracks if the intended track is not known.

b. Phase II - Thoroughly search Area A in the following sequence. If the missing

aircraft's intended route is not known with any certainty, all likely routes must be
covered:
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(1) third quarter from the track outwards,

(2) fourth quarter from the track outwards,

(3) second quarter from the track outwards,

(4) first quarter from the track outwards,

(5) destination and LKP areas starting from the destination

and the LKP,

c. Phase III - Expand the search to include Area B using the same sequence as given in
paragraph "b" above. Any valleys, dead-end canyons, passes, etc., that may have been
taken by the missing aircraft should also be searched.

4.8.10 Figure _____ shows a comparison between the OSAD and MVFR methods where more
than one common VFR route is possible. The practicality of the MVFR system is
demonstrated by the fact that the OSAD method covers only about one-third of the
possible VFR routes.

Figure ____ - Comparison of OSAD & MVFR Search Areas

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SWEEP WIDTH COMPUTATION

4.8.11 The computation of sweep width (SW) depends on the search methods being used by the
SAR units. Visual, electronic and other methods are discussed in the next chapter however these
concentrate, for the nost part on over-water searches. For inland searches, sweep width taables
are provided at Appendix N. In general, it is recommed that tow types of searches be conducted,
initial coverage and intensive coverage. For the initial coverage, track spacing should be two
miles or more, depending upon terrain. For intensive coverage, track spacing should be less than
two miles with one miles being the norm (therby giving a ½ mile spotting distance). Again, the
type of terrain is the determining factor.

4.8.12 There many factors which may modify the sweep width determination. While effects of
some of these factors may be variable or indefinite, the SAR Mission Coordinator must take
them into consideration when developing the search plan. Most will affect the POD and are
discussed below in approximate order of influence.

a. Search Object – detectability is significantly related to to size, shape, and color

contrast relairtive to the terrain;

b. Terrain – effects due to the difficulty of sighting objects through dense bush or tall
timber; the distractions of vegetation and surface irregularities;

c. Search Craft – speed directly affects search effectiveness particularly at low altitudes.
Turbulance will also have a significant effect;

d. Position of Sun – seach effectiveness will be reduced if searhers have to look into the
sun, or in the case of mountainous region searches, areas are covered in shade; and

e. Searcher Effectiveness – training, comfort, fatigue, physical and mental condition,

experience and motivastion of the searchers must always be considered.

END