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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001077

SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2026
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR KE
SUBJECT: MUSYOKA: LIES, LOVERS, AND MERCENARIES IN KENYA'S
POLITICS

REF: (A) NAIROBI 945 (B) NAIROBI 988

Classified By: PolCouns Michael J. Fitzpatrick, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)
.

¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Opposition politician Kalonzo Musyoka privately sees sabotage
by supporters of a fellow presidential aspirant as behind the false story
suggesting he was cutting a political deal with President Kibaki. The reason
for the Government's own visceral reaction to this story (and raiding the media
house): Outrage by Presidential wife Lucy Kibaki. Ironically, Musyoka
suggested that Wife Number 2, Mary Wambui, was responsible for the importation
of the eastern European mercenaries that played a clear role in the media
raids. Musyoka stated that the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM)
would continue to work together, but he is clearly suspicious of his ODM allies
and will place his presidential ambitions ahead of all other concerns. END
SUMMARY.
ODM Suspicions
--------------
¶2. (C) Former Foreign Minister and Environment Minister Stephen Kalonzo
Musyoka described for poloff March 8 the genesis of the Standard newspaper
story claiming he had met secretly with President Kibaki on February 16.
(NOTE: The

SIPDIS
article -- denied by both State House and Musyoka -- set off political
firestorms and police raids on the Standard Media Group, reftels. END NOTE.)
Musyoka attributed the story to Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) nominal
chairperson Prof. Larry Ngumbe and two others close to the party's charismatic
de facto leader, Raila Odinga. Ngumbe cooked up the story to make it appear
that Musyoka was "selling out" to the Government for the sake of a ministerial
appointment (Energy), thus discrediting Musyoka and clearing the way for
Odinga's 2007 presidential candidacy. Musyoka called Odinga the day the story
broke (February 25) expressing his concerns that Ngumbe had fabricated the
story. Odinga reportedly dressed down Ngumbe and cautioned others in the ODM
to avoid commenting on the story as it would sow divisions in the Movement,
working to the Government's advantage. When asked if he thought Odinga had
been involved in any way in fabricating the meeting story, Musyoka initially
said not, but then noted he could never be sure.

As the World Turns

------------------
¶3. (C) The Government's puzzling reaction to the story, which was far more
damaging to Musyoka than Kibaki, lies in the continuing saga of Kibaki's two
wives. According to Musyoka (and many others), First Lady Lucy does not reside
at State House with the President, but stays at their residence in Nairobi's
Muthaiga suburb. Upon learning that secret meetings with political figures
could be taking place in State House, Lucy reasoned that other secret liaisons
(with unofficial second wife Mary Wambui) could be transpiring as well. She
went to State House, where she stayed for two days to make her presence felt.
She further insisted that action be taken against the Standard (with which Lucy
had a nasty public run-in in 2005), apparently for exposing the fact that
meetings could happen in State House without her knowledge.

Mary and the Mercenaries

------------------------
¶4. (C) Musyoka also linked Wambui directly to the stories of eastern European
(possibly Bosnian, Russian, or Ukrainian) mercenaries involved in the March 2
raids on the Standard media facilities. Musyoka said he had personally met
some of these individuals, who seemed interested in arms deals in the region.
("How", they asked, "can we meet with (the DRoC's) Joseph Kabila?") The friend
who had introduced them later came to Musyoka concerned that these individuals
were hit men, not arms dealers, and had simply wanted to meet Musyoka to be
able to identify their target.

¶5. (C) Musyoka said Wambui had been instrumental in bringing the mercenaries
into play in Kenya. Thanks to her good offices, they travel in Government cars

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with a security detail. Wambui also apparently took a portion of them with her
on a trip to Dubai, where she is alleged to have spent US$600,000 on
unspecified merchandise. Musyoka said he had heard of plans to secretly
install a portion of the mercenaries in an office within the Police Criminal
Investigations Division. One of them, in fact, was to be appointed de facto
deputy of CID. (COMMENT: While Post has heard repeated suggestions that Mary
Wambui and Stanley Murage (her man at State House) are behind the presence of
the foreign mercenaries on the Government payroll, it strikes us as true irony
if Wife Two's hired guns were indeed used to avenge a perceived slight against
Wife One. END COMMENT.)

Presidential Aspirations
------------------------
¶6. (C) Musyoka's presidential candidacy, and his calculations for the 2007
race, wove their way into several points of the conversation. He flatly
dismissed Odinga's presidential aspirations (conventional wisdom says Kenyans
will not elect a Luo for president). He expected Kibaki would not run for a
second term. ("I don't know if it's the drugs they're giving him, but he's
sleeping on the job.") However, there are no other logical candidates among
the President's inner circle, so the current leadership would be forced to turn
to Uhuru Kenyatta as the default candidate. In a race between Kenyatta and
himself, Musyoka clearly believed he would have a national advantage over
Kenyatta, who he thought would be limited to the Kikuyu vote. (COMMENT: A
scenario in which the remnants of NARC pick the leader of the official
opposition to be their candidate would involve a mind-boggling number of
political contortions. We think it more likely Kenyatta will remain with KANU
as a candidate. POL FSN points out that, as Moi's chosen candidate in 2002 (and
still today), Kenyatta may be able to draw on that
patronage in 2007, potentially pulling in a significant portion of Rift Valley
support. END COMMENT.)
¶7. (C) Musyoka said his biography is in the works, likely to be published
before the 2007 elections. Unlike Odinga and Kenyatta, who have pedigrees
dating back toindependence, Musyoka rose from humble origins and feels Kenyans
need to know more about him. An ethnic Kamba, he hails from a village far
enough to the east that he had to worry aboutencountering Shifta rebels on his
way to school. His mother received no education and speaks only a few words of
Kiswahili; his father received only a limited education. This is the sort of
background he wants Kenyans to know as they consider candidates for the
presidency.

COMMENT
-------
¶8. (C) Musyoka kept to an ODM script regarding the need to maintain a united
front in the Movement. But it was clear from his tone that rumors of trouble
within the ODM are well-founded. The Movement will hold together as long as
there is an issue around which members can rally - the constitutional
referendum which brought them together in 2005 and the Government's recent
media assault serving the purpose nicely. ODM is poised to put forward its own
strategy for re-working the constitution, an exercise that may stick the
individual members together a bit longer. Ultimately, though, the ODM is a
marriage of convenience unlikely to withstand the pull of individual political
ambitions. Musyoka, like many of his colleagues, will stay with ODM only as
long as it helps advance his prospects for the presidency.
END COMMENT.

BELLAMY

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