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Sunday, February 3, 2008; A05

Retirements From House Adding Up

Most Departures Among Republicans, Giving Democrats a
Chance to Pad Their Ranks
By Paul Kane
Washington Post Staff Writer

Rep. James T. Walsh (R-N.Y.) spent last year aggressively fundraising and
campaigning for what promised to be a very close election in his toss-up district in
Syracuse. A 10-term House veteran and senior member on the coveted House
Appropriations Committee, Walsh raised more than $780,000, almost triple his 2005
total.
But even if Walsh were to win again, he would almost certainly face another term in
the minority, generally a guarantee that he would be frustrated trying to accomplish
his agenda. Ten days ago, he announced his retirement, deciding that another
grueling race was not worth it.
Walsh joined 27 GOP colleagues -- five in the past week -- who have decided to step
down, a major blow for a minority party desperately trying to keep Democrats from
padding their majority in the House this year.
"It is no question we have a major challenge. The last week has been difficult," said
Rep. Tom Cole (Okla.), chairman of the National Republican Congressional
Committee. "They can stretch the battlefield. They can go to a lot of different
places."
Only six Democrats are leaving, all from safe districts. To make matters worse for the
Republicans, the Democrats' campaign committee filed year-end reports last week
showing, for the first time in any political observer's memory, that it had raised more
money than its GOP counterpart last year.
The financial and numerical disparity leaves House Republicans with tough choices
that they have not faced since the early 1990s. In past years, the NRCC, through
advertising campaigns, could afford to shore up incumbents while it poured millions
of dollars into open-seat races, boosting Republican challengers against entrenched
Democratic incumbents.
Not this year.
"They cannot carry the fight to Democrats," said Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of an
independent political handicapping newsletter. "You have the entire game being
played on one side of the field."
After a 12-year reign in the majority, Republicans began 2007 expecting to battle
about 60 House Democrats in districts that President Bush won in 2004. Republicans
held slim hopes of reclaiming the majority.
Instead, they watched their chances shrink as the wave of retirements grew. Their
predicament was best exemplified by Rep. Thomas M. Davis III, the Northern Virginia
Republican who announced Wednesday that he will step down at the end of this year.
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Davis's district has grown increasingly suburban and Democratic, but as long as he
stayed in office, Republicans had a fighting chance to retain it. Upon news of Davis's
departure, the Cook Political Report, an independent newsletter, officially moved
Virginia's 11th District from a "solid R" ranking to a "toss-up."
The Davis district is one of 10 Republican "toss-ups," Cook indicated, all the result of
retiring veteran incumbents who are abandoning swing districts.
Walsh said that turning 60 last year forced him to contemplate retirement, asserting
that he was not running from life in the minority. But he said many of his colleagues
are afraid of a long Democratic run in power.
"That's really what you're seeing now," he said, referring to a wave of Democratic
retirements after the 1994 elections. "It's a very similar situation."
A dozen years ago, 29 Democrats retired in the wake of the Republican takeover of
the House, but 21 House Republicans also retired or ran for another office.
While veteran GOP incumbents such as Walsh were grinding for every dollar, 19
House Democratic freshmen raised more than $1 million last year.
Democratic challengers have also been raking it in. In Syracuse, Walsh's Democratic
opponent, former congressional aide Dan Maffei, running his second campaign ever,
raised more than $500,000 in 2007 and ended the year with almost as much cash in
the bank.
Cole's NRCC spent most of last year with debts exceeding cash on hand. Finally in the
black this winter, the NRCC showed a year-end balance of $5 million, which was
dwarfed by the $35 million in the coffers of the Democratic Congressional Campaign
Committee, chaired by Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.). For the year, the DCCC raised
$67.5 million, $18 million more than the NRCC.
On Friday, the NRCC also announced that it had uncovered "irregularities" in its
financial audit process that might include fraud.
Democrats have turned fundraising conventional wisdom on its head. New laws in
2003 prohibited the party committees from accepting unlimited contributions from
wealthy individuals, corporations or labor unions, the sort of mega-donations on
which Democrats had come to rely.
In 2003, with limits of $25,000 per year for contributions, the NRCC raised more than
$72 million to the DCCC's $28.7 million.
But House Democrats, under the direction of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.),
began to refocus on attracting small donors through the Internet, the cheapest and
most efficient fundraising vehicle. The DCCC raised $87,000 online in the 2001-2002
election cycle, an amount that grew to $7 million in the 2006 cycle. Aides said the
goal for online fundraising in the 2008 cycle is $12 million.
The overall objective is $150 million for the two-year cycle, almost double what the
DCCC raised in 2003 and 2004.
Meanwhile, Republicans have paid more than $100 million since 2003 to an Ohio-
based direct-mail and telemarketing firm, Infocision, that was supposed to give
Republicans a big advantage among small donors. Instead, during the past two
years, the DCCC has raised more in contributions of less than $200 than the NRCC,
according to Federal Election Commission reports.
Cole said Republicans have lost touch with "non-Washington fundraising," expecting
lobbyists and corporations to continuously fuel their political engines. In the
meantime, he said, Democrats have become smarter and more efficient.
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"This process has been underway for several years," Cole said. "Our people got
overly reliant on K Street and majority money. We need to think about the long
game."