March 11, 2011

Economics Group
Special Commentary

Scott Anderson, Senior Economist

scott.a.anderson@wellsfargo.com ● (612) 667-9281
Ed Kashmarek, Economist
ed.kashmarek@wellsfargo.com ● (612) 667-0479

Credit Quality Monitor: March 2011

Further Improvement Suggests the Worst Is Behind Us
There were several signs of further improvement in credit quality in the fourth quarter. Loan Credit quality
delinquency rates declined further, bank charge-offs slowed and bankruptcies declined. improved in many
Consumer confidence and employment have improved, which has strengthened demand for areas in the fourth
consumer loans. Still, as consumers continued to pay down debt and banks charged off more bad quarter, but the
debt, outstanding loan balances declined further, despite the fact that banks’ willingness to lend housing market
over the last three quarters has been the strongest in fifteen years. Although it appears the worst remains a concern.
in credit quality is likely behind us, we remain concerned about the impact on credit quality from
a second leg down in home prices.
According to the Federal Reserve, the overall loan delinquency rate declined in the fourth quarter,
but remains above peak levels seen in prior recessions. For the first time since the second quarter
of 1994, delinquency rates fell in every loan category on both a quarter-over-quarter and year-
over-year basis. Continued vigilance by consumers in paying down debts, combined with further
bank charge-offs, helped credit cards to post the biggest year-over-year decline of any category.
On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the biggest decline came from commercial real estate as overall
economic improvement has led to increased sales and rising prices for commercial real estate.
A separate release from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed mortgage delinquency rates
declined across the board in the fourth quarter. Prime, subprime, fixed and ARM delinquency
rates all improved. Because there have not been any federal programs to halt delinquencies per se,
as there have been for foreclosures, the improvement in the delinquency rate is largely due to
improving economic conditions such as rising incomes, labor market improvement and rising
consumer confidence. However, for many homeowners already seriously delinquent, even these
economic improvements are sometimes not enough to prevent foreclosure. Therefore, even with
the improvement in delinquency rates, it could be some time before we see significant
improvement in foreclosure rates. Indeed, the foreclosure inventory rate rose in the fourth
quarter, largely due to banks halting many foreclosure sales to make sure sound procedures were
being followed before proceeding. Similarly, because banks halted some foreclosure filings, the
foreclosure start rate dropped during the quarter. Now that banks have resumed foreclosure
filings, we will likely see the foreclosure start rate rebound in the first quarter, while the
foreclosure inventory rate will likely decline as foreclosure sales resume. Economic growth should
help support housing demand, yet home prices are clearly trending downward again as more
foreclosed homes in shadow inventory come onto the market. If prices continue to decline, more
homeowners will find themselves underwater, which could lead to more foreclosures and further
price declines, and a downward spiral could ensue. It is not clear whether job growth will support
demand enough to arrest this downward spiral. Of course, higher mortgage rates could further
impede the housing market’s ability to reach escape velocity.
Lending trends were mixed over the last three months. Slightly more banks on net reported being
more willing to lend in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter. However, loan growth has not
responded. Outstanding consumer loans at commercial banks were still lower than a year ago,

This report is available on wellsfargo.com/research and on Bloomberg WFEC

 Credit Quality Monitor: March 2011 WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
March 11, 2011 ECONOMICS GROUP

Demand for and the decline has actually accelerated rather than slowed as is usually seen at this stage of a
consumer loans recovery. While lending terms remain tight, banks have also reported very weak demand for
has improved, but consumer loans over the past few years. Demand for consumer loans finally returned to positive
net loan growth territory in the fourth quarter, but new loan growth will likely not be enough to overcome
remains elusive. continued deleveraging by consumers and charge-offs by banks for quite some time as job growth
remains less than desired and built-up savings reduces consumers’ need to borrow.
The improvement in both personal and business bankruptcies seen in the third quarter continued
in the fourth quarter. Better job and income growth has helped households to repair their balance
sheets and avoid bankruptcy. However, the slowdown in foreclosure filings by banks during the
fourth quarter may have also resulted in delayed bankruptcy filings since bankruptcy is often the
last resort to save one’s home before going into foreclosure. On the business side, improved
revenues and continued vigilance on keeping costs contained have supported profit growth.
However, rising input costs could crimp profits as the year progresses, though we do not think
this will materially impact business bankruptcies. The recent downward trend in business
bankruptcies is likely to continue.
Although there has been improvement in some consumer confidence indicators, purchasing plans
remain quite low by historical standards. Plans to buy a home have continually trended lower
over the past several years. Home buying plans may have perked up a bit over the last few
months, but due to the new methodology used by the Conference Board, as well as the fact that
data prior to November have not been revised to reflect the new methodology, it is impossible to
discern clearly the current trend or to compare to past history. Plans to buy an auto have clearly
improved over the last few months though, and sales have consequently rebounded as well.
Income expectations have also improved a bit but remain historically weak. Still, thanks to
improved job growth, tax cuts, ample built-up savings and a resurgent stock market, consumer
spending has been robust recently, helping to offset the drag from inventories and government
Uncertainty spending on fourth quarter economic growth.
regarding
On balance, credit quality is improving, albeit gradually, though there is still a long way to go
regulations, taxes,
before credit markets return to normal. The extreme depth and length of the recession means the
budget deficits,
road back to normality will be long, while the swath of new regulations and continued economic
inflation and
uncertainty suggests it will be anything but smooth. While we believe the worst is behind us, we
geopolitical issues
must keep in mind that there are still millions of homes that could enter foreclosure in the coming
are risks for the
months and years. This will likely keep home prices under pressure for a considerable period,
economy and credit
which could lead to more foreclosures and further price declines. In addition, steep budget cuts
quality.
and tax increases at the state level in many regions of the country could crimp employment
growth and lead to deterioration in credit quality. Another concern is inflation, which was starting
to creep higher on rising food and fuel prices even before the recent unrest in the Middle East.
Should geopolitical tensions remain high, rising oil and gas prices could filter into core prices and
slow down the recovery. This would certainly not bode well for credit quality. With so much
uncertainty regarding regulation, taxes, budget deficits, inflation and geopolitical issues, cautious
optimism is the rule of the day, which is why lending terms will likely remain tighter than usual.

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Credit Quality Monitor: March 2011 WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
March 11, 2011 ECONOMICS GROUP

Total Loan Delinquency Rates

Loan Delinquency Rates 8%
Percent
8%

 Loan delinquency rates improved across the board 7% 7%

in the fourth quarter. The total loan delinquency

6% 6%
rate fell to 6.5 percent from 6.9 percent. While this
is below the peak of 7.5 percent from a year ago, it is 5% 5%
still slightly higher than the 6.3 percent reached at
the peak of the 1990-1991 recession. Thus, there is 4% 4%

still a long way to go to get back to a more normal

3% 3%
credit-quality environment.
 For the first time since the second quarter of 1994, 2% 2%

delinquency rates fell for every category on both a 1% 1%

quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year basis. Even Total Loans: Q4 @ 6.5%
the much-beleaguered real estate industry saw 0% 0%
85 90 95 00 05 10
improvement. Credit cards continued to lead the
way with the best year-over-year improvement as
Loan Delinquency Rates
consumers continued to pay down debts and banks Basis Point Change, Q4 2010
charged off more bad debt. Meanwhile, commercial
Residential Real Estate Y/Y Change
real estate saw the biggest quarter-over-quarter
Q/Q Change
decline. It appears as though the worst is behind the Non-credit Card

commercial sector and that we will not return to the Agriculture

double-digit delinquency rates of the early 1990s.
 Steep bank charge-offs have helped to purge a lot of
Total Real Estate

bad debt out of the system. This, along with tighter Commercial Real Estate

lending standards on new loans, has helped to bring

Total Loans
down delinquency rates. Credit card charge-offs fell
further in the fourth quarter to $12.8 billion, while Total Consumer

non-credit card charge-offs rose slightly to $3.0 Commercial &

Industrial
billion. With charge-offs ebbing, banks will need to
set aside fewer provisions for bad loans. This will Credit Card

help profit margins and should lead to stronger -300 -200 -100 0 100
lending in the quarters ahead. Still, at $15.8 billion,
total consumer loan charge-offs remain nearly three
Net Charge-offs
times higher than pre-recession levels. Billions
$20 $8
Credit Card Loans: Q4 @ $12.8 (Left Axis)
Commercial R/E Loan Delinquency Rates Non-Credit Card Loans: Q4 @ $3.0 (Right Axis)
Percent
14% 14%
Commercial Real Estate: Q4 @ 7.9% $15 $6

12% 12%

10% 10%
$10 $4

8% 8%

6% 6% $5 $2

4% 4%

$0 $0
2% 2% 85 90 95 00 05 10

0% 0%
92 95 98 01 04 07 10 Source: FDIC, Federal Reserve and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

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Credit Quality Monitor: March 2011 WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
March 11, 2011 ECONOMICS GROUP

Delinquency Plus Foreclosure Rate

Mortgages 16%
Percent of All Mortgage Loans Delinquent or in Foreclosure, NSA
16%
Delinquency Plus Foreclosure Rate (US): Q4 @ 13.56%
 Mortgage delinquency rates fell across the board in
14% 14%
the fourth quarter. The overall delinquency rate fell
to 8.22 percent, the lowest in two years. Loan
modifications may be having some effect, but many 12% 12%

modified loans are still considered delinquent until

the trial period is over. In addition, the number of 10% 10%

loans that have been modified is very small.

Furthermore, there have been no moratoriums on 8% 8%
delinquencies like there have been on foreclosures.
Thus, the decline in delinquency rates is due to an 6% 6%
improving economy, not government programs.
 Foreclosure rates were mixed. The overall 4% 4%
foreclosure start rate dipped to 1.27 percent from 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

1.34 percent. However, the decline was most likely

due to banks pulling back on foreclosures early in Foreclosure Rate
Percent of All Mortgage Loans Entering Foreclosure, NSA
the fourth quarter amid the robo-signing issue 2.0% 2.0%
rather than an ebbing in the foreclosure crisis. On Foreclosure Rate: Q4 @ 1.27%

the other hand, the foreclosure inventory rate rose

to 4.63 percent from 4.39 percent. The increase in 1.5% 1.5%
the foreclosure inventory rate suggests fewer loans
exited foreclosure than entered foreclosure, which
was likely due to banks halting some foreclosure
1.0% 1.0%
sales to verify procedural adherence.
 Mortgage purchase applications started to rise about
the same time mortgage rates fell below their
0.5% 0.5%
previous low in late summer 2010. They got a
second jolt when rates shot up starting in November
as fence-sitters worried rates would go even higher.
0.0% 0.0%
However, purchase applications have been weaker
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
since mortgage rates rose above 4.5 percent. This
could weigh on sales and prices, pushing more
Mortgage Applications and Rates
homeowners underwater and foreclosure rates up. Purchase Applications vs. 30-Yr Mortgage Rate
360 6.0%
Purchase Apps (Index): Mar-04 @ 194.4 (Left Axis)
Mortgage Applications and Home Sales 30yr Mortgage Rate: Mar-04 @ 4.87% (Right Axis)
Purchase Applications (Index) vs. Home Sales (Million SAAR)
500 8
310 5.5%

450
7

400
260 5.0%

6
350

300 210 4.5%

5

250

4
160 4.0%
200 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Dec-10
Mortgage Purchase Apps: Feb @ 172.80 (Left Axis)
Existing Home Sales: Jan @ 5.36 (Right Axis)
150 3 Source: Freddie Mac, Mortgage Bankers Association, National
Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11
Association of Realtors and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

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Credit Quality Monitor: March 2011 WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
March 11, 2011 ECONOMICS GROUP

Loan Growth and Willingness to Lend

Lending Trends 100%
Willingness to Lend=Net Percent of Banks Loan Growth=Y/Y%
30%
Willingness to Lend: Q4 @ 20.4% (Left Axis)

 Lending trends were mixed over the past three 80% Consumer Loan Growth: Q4 @ -8.6% (Right Axis) 24%

months. According to the Federal Reserve’s latest 60% More Willing 18%

Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, slightly more 40% 12%

banks on net reported being more willing to lend in
20% 6%
the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter.
0% 0%
Over the last three quarters, increased willingness to
lend has been the strongest in the last 15 years. Of -20% -6%

course, this follows a prolonged period of extreme -40% -12%

aversion to lending. Unfortunately, we have not yet Less Willing
-60% -18%
seen the corresponding improvement in loan growth
-80% -24%
that we usually see when banks become more
willing to lend, although that should come with -100% -30%
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
time. Consumer loans outstanding were 8.6 percent
below year-ago levels in the fourth quarter as
consumer pay-downs and bank charge-offs Personal Savings
continued. In the short run, this is good news as bad Billions, Seasonally-Adjusted Annual Rate
$1,000 $1,000
or unsustainable debt is removed from the system Personal Savings: Jan @ $677.1
$900 $900
and households repair their balance sheets.
However, in the long run, we eventually need to see $800 $800

loans expand for the economy to grow faster. $700 $700

 Still, consumers have built up a war chest of savings $600 $600

over the last couple years. This, along with the social
$500 $500
security tax cut, suggests consumers have the means
to support spending for a considerable period $400 $400

without the need for a loan. Thus, the lack of loan $300 $300

growth should not be of too much concern in the $200 $200

near to medium term.
$100 $100
 Tighter lending terms and weak demand are both
$0 $0
factors in the contraction in credit. However, for the 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
first time in five years banks finally reported
stronger demand in the latest survey. This should
Demand for Consumer Loans
eventually lead to more lending down the road. Net Percent of Banks Reporting Stronger Demand
60% 60%
Consumer Loans: Q4 @ 5.6%
Net Percent of Banks Tightening Standards
Mortgages for Individuals Stronger Demand
40% 40%
100% 100%
All Mortgages (Through Q1-2007)
Prime Mortgages: Q4 @ 1.9%
Nontraditional Mortgages: Q4 @ 13.0% 20% 20%
80% Subprime Mortgages: Q4 @ 50.0% 80%

60% 60% 0% 0%

40% 40% -20% -20%

Weaker Demand

20% 20% -40% -40%

0% 0% -60% -60%
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

-20% -20% Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

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Credit Quality Monitor: March 2011 WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
March 11, 2011 ECONOMICS GROUP

Change in Consumer Credit

Consumer Credit $40
Credit at Commercial Banks, Change Quarter Ago, Billions
$40

 The change in consumer credit outstanding at $30 $30

commercial banks in the second quarter was revised
significantly from a $1.8 billion increase to an $11.8 $20 $20
billion decrease. The brief expansion in credit
during early spring of last year, which was partly $10 $10

fueled by tax refunds and the homebuyer tax credit,

was followed by a steep contraction. The third $0 $0

quarter contraction was also revised from $12.0

-$10 -$10
billion to $14.9 billion. Credit contracted another
$21.8 billion in the fourth quarter, the seventh
-$20 -$20
straight quarterly contraction. However, a jump in
Consumer Credit: Q4 @ -$21.8
student loans has lifted overall consumer credit at -$30 -$30
all financial institutions over the last few months. 85 90 95 00 05 10

 The fourth-quarter contraction in consumer credit

at commercial banks was mostly driven by credit Consumer Loans Outstanding
Yr/Yr Percent Change, Break Adjusted, Seasonally Adjusted
cards as consumer pay-downs and bank charge-offs 40% 40%

continued. This suggests that most spending during 35% 35%

the quarter was not financed by credit cards, but 30% 30%
rather by rising incomes and ample savings. Non- 25% 25%
credit card loan balances were also lower in the 20% 20%
fourth quarter, and have since contracted even more 15% 15%
sharply to the lowest levels in nearly two years. This
10% 10%
category includes auto loans. However, auto sales
5% 5%
have strengthened recently, suggesting that either
0% 0%
the contraction is coming from non-auto loans, or
-5% -5%
that more auto sales have been cash transactions.
-10% -10%
 Net new loans were also revised lower for the second -15%
Credit Card: Feb-23 @ -17.3%
-15%
Non-Credit Card: Feb-23 @ -4.4%
and third quarter. In the fourth quarter, net new
-20% -20%
loans went negative again after two quarters of 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
expansion. Although credit card charge-offs slowed
in the fourth quarter, they remained the driving
Light Vehicle Sales
force behind the contraction in bank credit. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, In Millions
24 24

Net New Loans

Change in Consumer Credit Plus Net Charge-offs, Billions 20 20
$50 $50
Net New Loans: Q4 @ -$6.0

16 16
$40 $40

12 12
$30 $30

8 8
$20 $20

4 4
$10 $10
Light Vehicle Sales: Feb @ 13.4 Million
0 0
$0 $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-$10 -$10 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, FDIC, Federal Reserve Board
85 90 95 00 05 10 and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

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Credit Quality Monitor: March 2011 WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
March 11, 2011 ECONOMICS GROUP

Bankruptcies
Bankruptcies 3,000
Thousands, 3-Month Ending, Seasonally-adjusted Annual Rate
90

 Bankruptcies declined further in the fourth quarter.

2,500 75
Total bankruptcies declined 8.4 percent to 1.49
million on a seasonally adjusted annual basis from
2,000 60
1.62 million in the third quarter. Personal
bankruptcies dropped 8.4 percent to 1.44 million
from 1.57 million, while business bankruptcies fell 1,500 45

7.2 percent to 51,700 from 55,700.

 Improvement in the labor market and further 1,000 30

deleveraging has put households in a better position

recently. Following a summer slowdown, job growth 500
Total: Q4 @ 1,489 (Left Axis)
15

has picked up again. Over the last five months, the Personal: Q4 @ 1,437 (Left Axis)
Business: Q4 @ 52 (Right Axis)
economy has added 671,000 jobs, helping to drive 0 0
00 02 04 06 08 10
down the unemployment rate from 9.8 percent in
November to 8.9 percent in February, the lowest
level since April 2009. This has fueled better growth Nonfarm Employment Change
Change in Employment, In Thousands
in personal disposable income, which was up 3.9 600 600
percent in January from a year ago. This, along with
400 400
falling debt levels, has aided the continuing decline
in the debt-to-income ratio, which stood at about 200 200
109 percent in the fourth quarter, down from a peak
of 123 percent right before the recession hit. 0 0

 Another possible reason for the decline in personal -200 -200

bankruptcies in the fourth quarter was the
slowdown in foreclosure filings by banks. Since -400 -400

bankruptcy is often the last defense to avoid losing

-600 -600
one’s house, it is likely that the lull in foreclosure
filings also delayed some bankruptcy filings. -800 -800

 Business bankruptcies continued the downward -1000

Nonfarm Employment Change: Feb @ 192,000
-1000
trend seen since the end of the recession. Improved 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

top-line growth, along with continued vigilance on

costs, has boosted profits. However, rising input Household Debt - Consumer & Mortgage
costs could squeeze profit margins this year. As a Percent of Disposable Personal Income
130% 130%

Corporate Profits 120% 120%

USD Billions, SAAR
$1,800 $1,800
110% 110%
Adjusted for Inventory Valuation & Capital Consumption
$1,600 $1,600
100% 100%

$1,400 $1,400
90% 90%

$1,200 $1,200
80% 80%
$1,000 $1,000
70% 70%
$800 $800
60% 60%
$600 $600
50% 50%
Household Debt: Q4 @ 108.6%
$400 $400
40% 40%
$200 $200 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Coporate Profits: Q3 @ $1640.1B
$0 $0 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Administrative Office of U.S.
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 District Courts, Federal Reserve, U.S. Department of Labor
and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

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Credit Quality Monitor: March 2011 WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
March 11, 2011 ECONOMICS GROUP

Consumer Purchasing Plans

Consumer Purchasing Plans 4.0%
Percent Planning to Buy in Next 6 Months, 12-M Moving Average
7.0%

 Consumer confidence rose in February to the

highest level in two years. However, this was the 3.6% 6.5%

first report to use the new sampling methodology of

the Nielsen Company. For the overall index, data
3.2% 6.0%
was revised for the last four months, and the
previous history is comparable to data using the new
survey method. However, the same is not true for 2.8% 5.5%
some of the sub-series, notably consumer
purchasing plans. For these series, the data was
revised going back to November, but previous 2.4% 5.0%

history was not revised, making historical Home: Jan @ 2.1% (Left Axis)
Auto: Jan @ 5.0% (Right Axis)
comparisons virtually impossible. Still, we can put
2.0% 4.5%
two and two together to get some idea of consumers’ 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
purchasing plans.
 Over the last few months, plans to buy a home have Consumer Purchasing Plans
Percent Planning to Buy in Next 6 Months, 12-M Moving Average
remained at historically low levels. The last four 32% 32%
months of data using the new method show a slight
uptrend. This is in line with what we have seen with
home sales, which have rebounded over the last 30% 30%
several months. Still, with plans to buy remaining
low and investors and foreclosures accounting for
more of the sales activity, it is clear the housing
28% 28%
market is a long way away from normality.
 In contrast, plans to purchase an auto have
improved noticeably of late as interest rates remain
26% 26%
low and job and income growth have improved.
Auto sales have risen for six straight months.
 Income expectations ticked up in February but, if 24%
Major Appliance: Jan @ 25.8%
24%
recent history is any indication, remain historically 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

low. Still, improvement in jobs and incomes, along

with ample savings, is supporting spending. But if Income Expectations
inflation picks up, real spending could slow again. 25%
Percent Expecting Increase in Incomes in Next 6 Months
25%

Real Retail Sales and Hourly Earnings

Year-over-Year Percent Change
8% 8%
20% 20%
6% 6%

4% 4%

2% 2% 15% 15%

0% 0%

-2% -2%
10% 10%
-4% -4%

-6% -6%
Income Expectations: Jan @ 11.4%
-8% -8% 5% 5%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11
-10% Real Ex-gas Retail Sales: Jan @ 5.6% -10%
Real Hourly Earnings: Jan @ 0.6%
-12% -12% Source: The Conference Board, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

8
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group

Diane Schumaker-Krieg Global Head of Research (704) 715-8437 diane.schumaker@wellsfargo.com

& Economics (212) 214-5070

John E. Silvia, Ph.D. Chief Economist (704) 374-7034 john.silvia@wellsfargo.com

Mark Vitner Senior Economist (704) 383-5635 mark.vitner@wellsfargo.com
Jay Bryson, Ph.D. Global Economist (704) 383-3518 jay.bryson@wellsfargo.com
Scott Anderson, Ph.D. Senior Economist (612) 667-9281 scott.a.anderson@wellsfargo.com
Eugenio Aleman, Ph.D. Senior Economist (704) 715-0314 eugenio.j.aleman@wellsfargo.com
Sam Bullard Senior Economist (704) 383-7372 sam.bullard@wellsfargo.com
Anika Khan Economist (704) 715-0575 anika.khan@wellsfargo.com
Azhar Iqbal Econometrician (704) 383-6805 azhar.iqbal@wellsfargo.com
Ed Kashmarek Economist (612) 667-0479 ed.kashmarek@wellsfargo.com
Tim Quinlan Economist (704) 374-4407 tim.quinlan@wellsfargo.com
Michael A. Brown Economist (704) 715-0569 michael.a.brown@wellsfargo.com
Tyler B. Kruse Economic Analyst (704) 715-1030 tyler.kruse@wellsfargo.com
Sarah Watt Economic Analyst (704) 374-7142 sarah.watt@wellsfargo.com

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