A M O N T H L Y P O L L C O M P I L A T I O N

Volume 7, Issue 1 • January 2011

Obama 2.0
President Obama’s handling of the Tucson shootings, the lame duck session accomplishments, and a glimmer of hope
about the economy boosted his job approval rating to 54 percent in the mid-January ABC/Washington Post poll. In
December, 49 percent approved. Other polls from December and early January show that while the President receives
high marks on his personal qualities, many Americans still have doubts about his policies.
Q: In general, do you . . . ?
Dec. 2010 Dec. 2009 Mar. 2009
Hope that Barack Obama’s
policies will succeed 61% 71% 86%
Hope his policies will fail 27 22 11

Think it is more likely that

Obama’s policies will succeed 44% 52% 64%
More likely his policies will fail 47 41 32
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of December 2010.

Q: Barack Obama has been president for nearly two years Q: Do you think . . . ?
now. Do you think . . . ? Barack Obama’s two years
Most of the things he has as President have been
done since he became mainly a success 47%
president will turn out Mainly a failure 45
to be good for the Source: Quinnipiac, January 2011.
country in the long run 47%
Bad 42
Note: In January 1983, 50 percent said the things Ronald Reagan
had done would be good for the country and 31 percent said they
would be bad.
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, January 2011.

Q: Which one of the following statements best describes your feelings toward Barack Obama . . . ?
Dec. 2010 Jan. 2009
Like personally and approve of
most policies 37% 55%
Like personally but disapprove
of many policies 35 22
Don’t like personally, approve
of most policies 4 5
Don’t like personally, disapprove
of many policies 21 10
Note: An early January Quinnipiac poll found that 44 percent liked Barack Obama as a person and also liked most of his policies, while 29 per-
cent liked him as a person and didn’t like most of his policies. Two percent said they didn’t like him personally and liked most of his policies,
and 19 percent said they didn’t like him as a person and didn’t like most of his policies.
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of December 2010. (continued on the next page)

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(continued from the previous page)

Q: Do you think . . . ?

80 Changes being proposed by Barack Obama will move the country in . . .

67%
70
The right direction
60 50%
50

40 46%

30 The wrong direction

31%
20

10

0
Feb 2009
Mar 2009
Apr 2009
May 2009
Jun 2009
Jul 2009
Aug 2009
Sep 2009
Oct 2009
Nov 2009
Dec 2009
Jan 2010
Feb 2010
Mar 2010
Apr 2010
May 2010
Jun 2010
Jul 2010
Aug 2010
Sep 2010
Oct 2010
Nov 2010
Dec 2010
Jan 2011
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of January 2011.

Q: How confident are you . . . ?

Dec. 2010 Jan. 2009
Extremely confident that Barack Obama
has the right set of goals and policies
to be president 15% 29%
Quite confident 21 25
Only somewhat confident 28 30
Not at all confident 36 15
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of December 2010.

Q: Would you say . . .

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2010
Barack Obama is honest and trustworthy 63% 56%
Has strong leadership qualities 64 66
Shares your views on issues you care about 49 46
Source: Quinnipiac, latest that of January 2011.

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 Expectations and Impressions Today
The bars on this page show how President Obama measures up today against Americans’ initial impressions. We greeted
President Obama with very high expectations, so it’s not surprising that his marks have fallen in most areas. When asked
about “sharing your positions on issues,” 52 percent in January 2009 gave him the top ratings of five or four in the
NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. In December 2010, 35 percent did.
Q: How would you rate Barack Obama on the following qualities, using a five point scale on which a “five” means a
very good rating, a “one” means a very poor rating, and a “three” means a mixed rating?
Points five and four, with five meaning a very good rating
Being easy-going and likeable Dec. 2010 68%
Jan. 2009 77%

Being an inspirational and exciting President Dec. 2010 51%

Jan. 2009 77%

Having strong qualities of leadership Dec. 2010 49%

Jan. 2009 70%

Being honest and straightforward Dec. 2010 48%

Jan. 2009 63%

Being knowledgeable and experienced Dec. 2010 44%

enough to handle the presidency Jan. 2009 51%

Representing traditional American values Dec. 2010 43%

Jan. 2009 60%

Having the ability to handle a crisis Dec. 2010 42%

Jan. 2009 46%

Being a good commander-in-chief Dec. 2010 41%

Jan. 2009 55%

Being firm and decisive in decision making Dec. 2010 41%

Jan. 2009 63%

Sharing your positions on issues Dec. 2010 35%

Jan. 2009 52%

Achieving his goals Dec. 2010 33%

Jan. 2009 56%

Uniting the country Dec. 2010 30%

Jan. 2009 60%

Changing business as usual in Washington Dec. 2010 24%

April 2009 47%

Having a strong family and good family values Dec. 2010 74%
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of December 2010.

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 Congress and the New Republicans
In Gallup’s polling, approval of Congress fell to a record low, 13 percent in mid-December, but rebounded to 20 percent
in early January. In the January 2011 AP-GfK/Roper poll, six in ten disapproved of the way the Republicans in Congress,
and separately, Democrats, were handling their jobs. Thirty-four percent in a January Pew poll approved of the Republi-
can leaders’ policies and plans for the future, while 43 percent disapproved.
Q: Overall, please tell me whether you . . . ?
Jan. 2011 Jan. 2010 April 2009
Approve of the way Congress is
handling its job 26% 32% 38%
Disapprove 69 66 57

Approve of the way the Democrats

in Congress are handling their jobs 39% 40%
Disapprove 60 57

Approve of the way the Republicans

in Congress are handling their jobs 36% 32%
Disapprove 61 65
Source: AP-GfK/Roper, latest that of January 2011.

Q: Do you think the . . . ?

Policies being proposed by the
Republican leaders in the U.S. House Democratic leaders in the U.S. House
and Senate would move the country and Senate would move the country
in the right direction 44% in the right direction 48%
Wrong direction 51 Wrong direction 48
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, December 2010.

Q: Do you . . . ?
Approve of the Republican congressional
leaders’ policies and plans for the future 34%
Disapprove 43
Note: In December 1994, 52 percent approved of Republican congressional leaders’ plans and 28 percent disapproved. In November 2006,
50 percent approved of Democratic congressional leaders’ plans and 21 percent disapproved.
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, January 2011.

Q: Who do you trust to do a better job handling . . . ?

Obama The Republicans in Congress
The economy 46% 41%
The federal budget deficit 44 41
The threat of terrorism 45 39
The situation in Afghanistan 52 31
Health care reform 42 42
Helping the middle class 51 37
Taxes 44 42
Note: Full sample asked of ‘economy’; half sample asked for all other response categories.
Source: ABC/Washington Post, January 2011.

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 Health Care: Views on the Bill
We continue our coverage of public opinion on the health care bill on this page and the next. Opinions about the bill
have been remarkably stable in each pollster’s question. Two of three December 2010 polls showed more opposition than
support for the legislation. The Kaiser Family Foundation’s December poll showed opinion evenly split. The bill has not
had broad public support although some of its individual provisions are popular. Opposition to the individual mandate
is strong.
Q: Overall, given what you know about them, would you say you support or oppose the proposed changes to the
health care system being developed by Congress and the Obama administration? (ABC/Washington Post)* Q: As of
right now, do you generally favor or generally oppose the health care proposals being discussed in Congress?(Pew)**
Q: As you may know, the U.S. House of Representatives recently passed a bill that would make major changes in the
country’s health care system. Based on what you have read or heard about that legislation, do you generally favor it or
generally oppose it? (CNN/Opinion Research Corporation)^^ Q: Based on what you know about the health care reform
legislation being considered right now, do you favor or oppose the plan? (Fox/Opinion Dynamics)^^^ Q: In general, do
you support, oppose, or neither support nor oppose the health care reform plans being discussed in Congress? (AP-Gfk/
Roper)^* Q: President Obama did sign a health reform bill into law last month . . . . Given what you know about the
new health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it? (Kaiser)**^
—ABC/WP— —Pew— CNN/ORC Fox/OD AP/Gfk Kaiser
Sup Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Sup Opp Fav Unf
Jul. 2009 - - 38% 44% - - 36% 47% - - - -
Aug. 2009 45% 50% 39 46 - - 34 49 - - - -
Sep. 2009 46 48 42 44 - - 33 53 34% 49% - -
Oct. 2009 48 48 34 47 - - 35 54 40 40 - -
Nov. 2009 48 49 42 39 46% 49% 35 51 39 45 - -
Dec. 2009 44 51 35 48 - - 34 57 36 44 - -
Jan. 2010 44 51 39 48 38 58 39 51 42 42 - -
Feb. 2010 47 49 38 50 - - - - - - - -
Mar. 2010 48 49 40 47 39 59 35 55 41 43 - -
Apr. 2010 49 49 40 44 - - 39 54 39 50 46% 40%
May. 2010 - - - - 43 56 - - 39 46 41 44
Jun. 2010 - - - - - - - - 45 42 48 41
Jul. 2010 45 50 35 47 - - - - - - 50 35
Aug. 2010 - - - - 40 56 - - - - 43 45
Sept. 2010 - - 38 45 - - - - 41 46 - -
Oct. 2010 47 48 - - - - - - 40 45 42 44
Nov. 2010 - - 43 47 - - - - 38 47 42 40
Dec. 2010 43 51 - - 43 54 - - - - 42 41
Jan. 2011
Note: *Beginning in March 2010, the ABC/WP question wording read: “Given what you know about them, would you say you support or
oppose the changes to the health care system that have been enacted by Congress and the Obama administration?” **For April 2010, the
PSRA/Pew question asked about the “legislation passed last month.” After April 2010, the PSRA/Pew question wording read: “Do you
approve or disapprove of the health care legislation passed by Barack Obama and Congress in March?” ^^CNN/ORC has changed the word-
ing of their questions since the bill passed. Question wording for January 2010 asked about “the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Repre-
sentatives recently passed bills.” The May 2010 CNN/ORC question wording was: “Do you approve or disapprove of the passage of the health
care bill which became law in April?” Favor is equated with approve and oppose is equated with disapprove. The October, August, and March
2010 CNN/ORC question read: “As you may know, a bill that makes major changes to the country’s health care system became law earlier
this year. Based on what you have read or heard about that legislation, do you generally favor or generally oppose it?” ^^^Question wording
for April 2010 Fox /OD reads, “Based on what you know, do you favor or oppose the new health care law?” ^*The AP/Gfk question wording
after April 2010 reads: “In general, do you support, oppose or neither support nor oppose the health care reforms that were passed by
Congress in March?” **^The question wording for Kaiser after April 2010 reads: “As you may know, a new health reform bill was signed
into law earlier this year. Given what you know about the new health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable
opinion of it?”

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 What Now?
Q: Which of the following comes closest to your view of what lawmakers in Washington should do with the new health
reform law?
Dec. 2010 Nov. 2010
Lawmakers should leave the new
health reform law as it is 21% 19%
They should expand the law 20 21
They should repeal parts of the law 25 25
They should repeal the entire law 26 24
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, latest that of December 2010.

Q: As you may know, a bill that makes major changes to the country’s health care system became law earlier this year.
Based on what you have read or heard about that legislation, do you generally favor or generally oppose it?
Q: (If oppose) Do you oppose that legislation because you think its approach toward health care is too liberal, or
because you think it is not liberal enough?
Health care legislation
Dec. 2010 Aug. 2010 Mar. 2010
Favor 43% 40% 39%
Oppose, approach is too liberal 37 41 43
Oppose, not liberal enough 13 13 13
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of December 2010.

Q: Now here are a few provisions in the health care bill. Please tell me whether you favor or oppose . . . ?
Dec. 2010 Aug. 2010 Feb. 2010 Nov. 2009
Requiring all Americans who do not
have health insurance to get it
Favor 38% 44% 45% 49%
Oppose 68 56 53 49
Preventing health insurance companies
from dropping coverage for people who
become seriously ill
Favor 61% 59% 62% 60%
Oppose 39 41 38 39
Preventing health insurance companies
from denying coverage to people with
pre-existing conditions
Favor 64% 58% 58% 60%
Oppose 35 42 42 40
Note: In November 2010, when the Kaiser Family Foundation asked about requiring people to have insurance or pay a fine, 27 percent
wanted to keep that provision, while 68 percent wanted to repeal it.
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of December 2010.

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; John Fortier, Research Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew
Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Rugg, Editor.
Michael Barone, Resident Fellow. Intern: Greg Brooks.

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Measuring Michelle Obama
In Gallup’s 2010 “most Q: Now I’m going to read you the names of several public figures, and I’d like you to
admired” women poll, rate your feelings toward each one as either very positive, somewhat positive, neutral,
Michelle Obama somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don’t know the name, please just say so.
ranked fourth, behind Michelle Obama.
Hillary Clinton, Sarah
Palin, and Oprah Win- 70 Michelle Obama favorability
frey. Hillary Clinton
has occupied the top 60 Positive
spot for the last nine
52%
years. The NBC/ 50
Wall Street Journal poll,
which started assessing
40
Mrs. Obama when she
32%
and her husband were
30 32% 25%
on the campaign trail, Neutral
shows that a majority
20
has positive feelings 20% 21%
Negative
about her. Two in ten
10
have negative views.
Source: NBC/Wall Street
0
Journal, latest that of
Mar 2008

May 2008

Jul 2008

Sep 2008

Nov 2008

Jan 2009

Mar 2009

May 2009

Jul 2009

Sep 2009

Nov 2009

Jan 2010

Mar 2010

May 2010

Jul 2010

Sep 2010

Nov 2010
December 2010.

Trade Talk
Views about trade and globalization Q: On balance, do you think . . . ?
in the abstract are generally posi-
Trade with other countries—both buying and selling products—is . . .
tive. Polls taken by NBC/Wall
80
Street Journal and the Pew
Good for the U.S. economy
Research Center in the fall of 2010 70 66%
showed that attitudes about free
67%
trade agreements have become 60
more negative as they frequently
do in a bad economy. In almost 50

all questions that mention trade’s

40
impact on American jobs, public
opinion is very negative. Out- 30
sourcing is unpopular, but only
Bad for the U.S. economy
small numbers of Americans 20
20% 23%
expect to be affected by it. “Deal-
ing with foreign trade” does not 10

appear to be a high priority for

0
the public.
Jan 1993

Jan 1994

Jan 1995

Jan 1996

Jan 1997

Jan 1998

Jan 1999

Jan 2000

Jan 2001

Jan 2002

Jan 2003

Jan 2004

Jan 2005

Jan 2006

Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Source: CBS/New York Times, latest

that of April 2009.
(continued on the next page)

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(continued from the previous page)

Selected Points:
Good Bad Good Bad
—— Nov. 1993 —— —— April 2009 ——
National 67% 20% 66% 23%
Responses of Democrats 64 22 59 28
Responses of Republicans 72 19 74 17
Responses of independents 66 19 68 22
Source: CBS/New York Times, latest that of April 2009.

Q: What do you think about the growing trade and business ties between the United States and other countries—do
you think it is a very good thing, somewhat good, somewhat bad or a very bad thing for our country?
Very/Somewhat good—Growing trade and business ties Somewhat/Very bad
Aug.–Sep. 2002 78% 18%
Apr. – May 2007 59 36
Apr. 2008 53 41
May–June 2009 65 30
Apr.– May 2010 66 27
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of April–May 2010.

Q: In general, do you think that . . . ?

——Free trade agreements between the United States and foreign countries——
Have helped the U.S. Have hurt the U.S. Not much difference
Oct. 1999 35% 32% 24%
Dec. 1999 39 30 24
Mar. 2007 28 46 16
Sept. 2010* 17 53 20
Nov. 2010** 23 47 23
Note: *Asked of a half sample. **The November question asked about “free trade” and not “free trade agreements.”
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of November 2010.

Q: Do you think that . . . ?

Free trade agreements between the United States and other countries help
Create more jobs Cost jobs
21% Jan. 1996 62%
25 Mar. 1996 59
18 Sept. 2010* 69
Note: *Asked of a half sample.
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of September 2010.

Q: I’d like to ask you some questions about priorities for President Obama and Congress this year. As I read from a list,
tell me if you think the item that I read should be a top priority . . .
————————————Dealing with global trade issues————————————
A top Important, but Not too Should not Overall
priority a lower priority important be done ranking
Jan. 2009 31% 49% 11% 2% (19/20)
Jan. 2010 32 46 12 4 (20/21)
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of January 2010.

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Q: Do free trade agreements . . . ?
Make the price of products sold in the U.S.
Nov. 2010 Nov. 2009 Apr. 2008 Dec. 2006
Higher 31% 33% 39% 30%
Lower 31 32 29 32
No difference 25 20 18 23

Make wages of American workers

Nov. 2010 Nov. 2009 Apr. 2008 Dec. 2006
Higher 8% 11% 8% 11%
Lower 45 49 56 44
No difference 34 24 22 30

Jobs in the U.S

Nov. 2010 Nov. 2009 Apr. 2008 Dec. 2006
Create jobs 8% 13% 9% 12%
Lead to job losses 55 53 61 48
No difference 24 19 18 25

Make the American economy

Nov. 2010 Nov. 2009 Apr. 2008 Dec. 2006
Grow 13% 25% 19% 28%
Slow it down 43 42 50 34
No difference 24 18 17 21
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of November 2010.

The Economy and Gas Prices

Q: Has the U.S. economy . . . ?
Jan. 2011 Feb. 2009
Turned the corner on the current crisis 12% 7%
The worst is yet to come 27 54
Things have stabilized but not yet
begun to improve 57 35
Source: Ipsos/Reuters, latest that of January 2011.

Q: How important are the following issues to you personally?

Jan. 2011 Nov. 2010
Gas prices are extremely/very important 71% 54%
Moderately important 19 30
Slightly/Not at all important 10 15
Source: AP-GfK/Roper, latest that of January 2011.

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 The Distaff Side
Women at every level of our politics win just as often as men do. Although their numbers are rising in Congress and state
legislatures, women find it hard to make gains because mostly male incumbents who hold office tend to be reelected. The
power of incumbency is strong.
This year, Republican women made gains in the House, while Democrats lost seats. The Center for American Women
and Politics (CAWP) keeps tabs on women’s political progress and sums up the results this way: “[O]ne new woman,
Republican Kelly Ayotte [New Hampshire], won a Senate seat,” and “nine new Republican women, including one woman
of color [Jaime Herrera in Washington], joined the House.” CAWP tells us that for Republicans this breaks “the previous
record of seven Republican newcomers in a single election.” CAWP further notes that “all three new women governors
are Republicans, including two who won woman-versus-woman races. Two of the new governors [Nikki Haley in South
Carolina and Susana Martinez in New Mexico] are women of color, the first women of color to head state governments.”
The number of Republican women who were defeated in primaries was especially large. Many of these women may
run again.
Senator Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) recently broke the record of Senator Margaret Chase Smith to be the longest serving
female senator. She is in her 25th year in the Senate.

70 Female Members of Congress: 1917 to Present

60

House Republicans
50
51
Senate Republicans
40
House Democrats
30
Senate Democrats 24
20
13
10
5
0
1917

1921

1925

1929

1933

1937

1941

1945

1949

1953

1957

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

2009

Source: U.S. House of Representatives, Office of the Clerk.

Republican Women in State Legislatures

700
654

600
533 519
500

400

300

200

100

0
2007 2009 2011

Note: The total number of state legislature seats throughout this period is 7,382. In 2011, there were a total of 1,727 female state legislators.
Source: National Conference of State Legislatures.

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 Political Potpourri

Average approval of Congress Candidate Announcements,

during various Speakers’
tenures
Tom Foley, D, 1991–1994
Newt Gingrich, R, 1995–1998
Dennis Hastert, R, 1999–2006
Nancy Pelosi, D, 2007–2010
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of 2010.
2012
As of this writing, no Republican candidate has officially
announced for the 2012 presidential nomination. Look-
26%
ing back to 2008, the pattern for Democrats was quite
38
different. In January 2007, only two Republicans, Dun-
44
can Hunter and Mike Huckabee, had formally entered
24
the presidential contest. John McCain, the party’s even-
tual nominee, announced in late April 2007.

2008 Democratic presidential campaign

announcements:
Debate Watch 2011 April 17, 2006 Mike Gravel
December 11, 2006 Dennis Kucinich
Three candidate forums have been scheduled for possible December 28, 2006 John Edwards
Republican presidential candidates. We do not know January 19, 2007 Chris Dodd
how many candidates will show up for these debates. January 20, 2007 Hillary Clinton
January 21, 2007 Bill Richardson
March 7, 2011 Des Moines, Iowa. Sponsor: Iowa’s January 31, 2007 Joe Biden
Faith and Freedom Coalition February 10, 2007 Barack Obama

May 5, 2011 Greenville, South Carolina. Sponsors:

The South Carolina Republican Party and Fox News

June 7, 2011 Manchester, New Hampshire. Sponsors: Party Identification,

New Hampshire Union Leader, WMUR-TV, and CNN 2008 and 2010
Although Democrats have lost ground in Gallup and
Pew annual party identification averages, Republicans
have not gained. In both pollsters’ 2010 averages, inde-
Divided Government pendents were the largest group.
Annual Averages
Q: As you may know, the Republicans now control the ——Gallup—— ——Pew——
House of Representatives, while Democrats control the 2008 2010 2008 2010
Senate and the presidency. Do you think . . . ? Republican 28% 29% 26% 25%
It is good for the country 38% Democrat 36 31 36 33
Bad 25 Independent 35 38 32 35
Does not really make a difference 34 Source: The Gallup Organization and PSRA/Pew Research Center,
Source: AP-GfK/Roper, latest that of January 2011. annual averages.

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