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Volume 6, Issue 1 • January 2010

Party on in 2010
The decline in Democratic fortunes can be seen by looking at Gallup’s 2009 quarterly results. In the first quarter,
51.7 percent of those surveyed called themselves Democrats; in the fourth quarter, that had dropped to 47.2 percent.
Overall, Democrats still hold the advantage. In terms of ideology, conservatives remain on top. Republicans have
become more conservative over the decade, Democrats more liberal.
Q: In politics today, do you consider yourself a . . . ?
———————2009 by quarter——————— 2009
1st 2nd 3rd 4th Total
Republican 38.7% 39.6% 42.4% 42.2% 40.7%
Democrat 51.7 48.8 48.2 47.2 49.0
Note: Includes those who lean to the Republican and Democratic parties.
Source: The Gallup Organization.

1990–1999 2000–2009
Republican 29.9% 30.9%
Democrat 33.3 33.3
Independent 36.8 34.8
Note: The Pew Research Center 2009 yearly totals were 37 percent Republican, 50.1 percent Democrat.
Source: The Gallup Organization.

Q: Will 2010 be . . . ?
For the Republicans For the Democrats
53% 2010 will be better than 2009 13%
17 2010 will be worse 60
Note: More Democrats thought 2010 would be worse for the Democrats than thought it would be better (33 to 28 percent). Sixty-three
percent of independents said 2010 would be better for the GOP; 73 percent of independents said it would be worse for the Democrats.
Source: Zogby International, December 2009.

Q: How would you describe your political views . . . ?


———————————————Among——————————————
—National— —Republicans— —Democrats— —Independents—
2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009
Conservative 38% 40% 62% 71% 25% 21% 29% 35%
Moderate 40 36 31 24 44 39 44 43
Liberal 19 21 6 4 29 38 21 18
Note: Data for each year are aggregated. Sample sizes range from approximately 10,000 to 40,000 for the annual compilations.
Source: The Gallup Organization.

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The Economy: Little to Cheer About
Q: How would you rate . . . ?
January 2010 February 2009
The condition of
the national economy
Good 17% 5%
Bad 82 94
Source: CBS News, latest that of January 2010.

Q: How would you rate . . . ?


December 2009 January 2009
The current job market
in my region
Good 9% 6%
Bad 72 76
Source: Online survey conducted by Harris Interactive, latest that of December 2009.

Obama and His Liberal Base


Amid criticism from the Left about Barack Obama, and the hint of a possible challenge from Howard Dean in 2012, Pew
looked at liberal and moderate-to-conservative Democrats’ views about their president. Twenty-nine percent of liberal
Democrats who approve of the job Obama is doing say they are disappointed with things he has done. But 27 percent of
moderate-to-conservative Democrats give that response. A greater percentage of liberal Democrats in December than
April say he is listening more to moderates in the Democratic Party than to them.
Majorities of conservative Republicans supported George W. Bush throughout his presidency, but his support
dropped from the 90 percent level in 2005 to around 65 percent when he left the presidency.
Q: Do you . . . ? (Those who approved were then asked: While you approve of Obama’s performance overall, are there
any things he has done that you have been disappointed or unhappy with, or can’t you think of anything?)
————————————Democrats————————————
All Liberal Moderate/
conservative
Approve of Obama’s job performance
but have been disappointed or unhappy
with things 27% 29% 27%

———————Response of Liberal Democrats———————


December 2009 April 2009
Obama is listening more to liberals
in his party 20% 28%
Obama is listening more to moderates 54 44
Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2009.

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Health Care Reform: The Evolution of Our Opinions
Below we show how attitudes have developed over the course of the debate on health care. All polls show opinion moving
against President Obama in terms of his handling of the issue since the summer, some more dramatically than others.
Gallup and Pew showed a small uptick in support for reform proposals in January 2010, but their overall results are dif-
ferent. More Americans still trust President Obama to handle health care reform than trust congressional Republicans.

Gallup
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling health care policy?
Q: Would you advise your member of Congress to vote for or against a health care bill this year, or do you not have
an opinion?*
——Obama handling—— —Advise your member to—
Approve Disapprove Vote for Vote against
January 2010 - - 49% 46%
December 2009 - - 46 48
November 2009 40% 53% 44 49
October 2009 - - 51 41
September 2009 43 52 50 47
August 2009 43 49
July 2009 44 50
Note: *Responses include leaners.

ABC News/Washington Post


Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling health care?
Q: Overall, given what you know about them, would you say you support or oppose the proposed changes to the
health care system being developed by Congress and the Obama administration ?
Q: Who do you trust to do a better job handling health care reform—Obama or the Republicans in Congress?
——Obama handling—— ——Proposed changes—— ———Trust to handle———
Approve Disapprove Support Oppose Obama Republicans
in Congress
January 2010
December 2009 44% 53% 44% 51% 46% 39%
November 2009 47 49 48 49 50 37
October 2009 48 48 45 48 - -
September 2009 48 48 46 48 48 36
August 2009 46 50 45 50 - -
July 2009 49 44 - - 54 34

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AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS


Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; John Fortier, Research Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew
Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Rugg, Editor.
Michael Barone, Resident Fellow.

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Pew
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling health care policy?
Q: As of right now, do you generally favor or generally oppose the health care proposals being discussed in Congress?
——Obama handling—— ————Proposals————
Approve Disapprove Favor Oppose
January 2010 38% 52% 39% 48%
December 2009 - - 35 48
November 2009 43 47 42 39
October 2009 - - 34 47
September 2009 - - 42 44
August 2009 - - 39 46
July 2009 42 43 38 44
Note: In August, 43 percent had “not too much” or “no confidence at all” in Barack Obama to do the right thing on dealing with health care
reform; in December, 51 percent had not too much or no confidence in him. The survey dates for the Pew poll labeled “October” were
September 30–October 4. The survey dates for the Pew poll labeled “November” were October 28–November 8.

Quinnipiac
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling health care?
Q: From what you have read or heard, do you mostly approve or mostly disapprove of the proposed changes to the
health care system under consideration in Congress?
Q: Who do you trust to do a better job handling health care—President Obama or the Republicans in Congress?
——Obama handling—— ——Proposed changes—— —Trust to do better job—
Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Obama Republicans
in Congress
January 2010 35% 58% 34% 54% 42% 41%
December 2009 38 56 36 53 45 40
November 2009 41 53 - - 45 36
October 2009 41 51 - - 47 31
August 2009 39 52 - - 46 37
July 2009 46 42 - - 53 33

Harris
Q: Even if you don’t know the details of his plan, how do you feel about President Obama’s proposals for health care reform?
Q: Based on what you’ve read, seen or heard, how would you rate the health care plans proposed by each of the fol-
lowing? (Republicans in Congress)
——Obama’s proposals—— —Republicans in Congress—
Support Oppose Good Bad
January 2010
December 2009 43% 45% 35% 65%
November 2009 40 41 33 67
October 2009 45 45 - -
September 2009 49 41 35 65
August 2009 49 40 31 69
July 2009 42 38 - -
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of December 2009; ABC News/Washington Post, latest that of December 2009; the Pew Research
Center, latest that of December 2009; Quinnipiac University, latest that of December 2009; online surveys by Harris Interactive, latest that of
December 2009.

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Roe v. Wade at 37
Abortion is an issue that never seems to be far from the surface in our politics. Federal funding became a contentious
issue in the healthcare debate in the final months of 2009. As the surveys below show, Americans oppose public funding
for abortion.
In the Gallup question below that has tracked opinion on abortion since 1975, opinions have been relatively stable. In
late summer, Pew reported that support for abortion was slipping, but other pollsters suggested that there hasn’t been
much movement. Pew suggested that “the election of a pro-choice Democrat may be a contributing factor” to the move-
ment in their poll, noting that the issue had receded in importance for liberals especially.
There is a fairly narrow split today in terms of identification with the pro-life and pro-choice labels. A solid majority
consider abortion to be morally wrong. Later in this report, we show that people do not feel this way about divorce.
Q: Do you think abortions should be. . . ?

70
Legal only under certain circumstances
60

50
Percent

40

30 Legal under all circumstances

20

10
Illegal in all circumstances
0
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of July 2009.

Public Funding
Q: Do you . . . ?
Support allowing abortions to be
paid for by public funds under
a health care reform bill 23%
Oppose 72
Note: Ninety-one percent of Republicans, 74 percent of independents, and 54 percent of Democrats opposed allowing abortions to be paid
for by public funds.
Source: Quinnipiac, December 2009.

Q: Generally speaking, are you . . . ?


In favor of using public funds for abortions
when the woman cannot afford it 37%
Opposed 61
Source: CNN/ORC, November 2009.
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More Pro-Life or Pro-Choice?


Q: On the issue of abortion, would you say you are . . . ?
More pro-life More pro-choice
40% August 1997 50%
47 November 2009 44
Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, latest that of November 2009.

Q: With respect to the abortion issue, would you consider yourself to be . . . ?


Pro-life Pro-choice
33% September 1995 56%
45 November 2009 48
Source: Gallup/USA Today, November 2009. Gallup/CNN/USA Today, September 1995.

Q: Regardless of whether or not you think it should be legal please tell me whether you personally believe that
in general . . . ?
Abortion is morally acceptable 36%
Morally wrong 56
Source: The Gallup Organization, May 2009.

Obama At Home and Abroad Election Watch—Britain


Q: For each of the following people, please indicate Most people expect British Prime Minister Gordon
whether you have a . . . ? Brown to call the election in May. Although British
campaigns officially run for about six weeks, election
Very/somewhat Very/somewhat
season is already in full swing. The Conservatives lead
good opinion of good opinion of
Labour in the polls by a solid margin. Many of the
Barack Obama your country’s leader
features of America’s permanent campaign, the subject
Response in of two AEI conferences in London in the 1990s, are
The United States 53% 53% being exported abroad. There seem to be more polls
France 82 34 (Sarkozy)
than ever before on both sides of the pond, and, for the
Italy 88 39 (Berlusconi)
first time in Britain, there will be televised debates in
Spain 79 48 (Zapatero)
the campaign.
Germany 81 63 (Merkel)
Great Britain 72 23 (Brown) If the election were held today, would vote for
Note: In January 2009, the average response for all six countries Conservative 41%
(including the United States) about Barack Obama was 80 per- Labour 29
cent; in the October–November 2009 poll, the average was
76 percent.
Other 18
Source: Online survey by Harris Interactive/France 24/International Source: UK Polling Report, January 2010.
Herald Tribune, October–November 2009.

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Party Switching: A Look at the Record
In December 2009, freshman representative Parker Griffith of Alabama made headlines by switching his party affiliation
from Democrat to Republican. By doing so, Griffith became the first House member to switch from the majority to the
minority party since ex-rep. Michael Forbes of New York moved to the Democratic Party in 1999. Prior to 1994, when
Democratic majorities in Congress were the norm, more members switched from the majority to the minority party than
have since that time, as southern Democrats left their party to join a Republican Party that was closer to their own ideo-
logical views. Since 1994, moves from the minority to the majority party have been much more common.
Griffith’s shift from D to R is the most recent in a long line of party switches among members of Congress; the graph
below charts the number of congressmen and senators in the past fifty years who broke with their parties to caucus with
the opposing major party.*

88th (1963–4)
89th (1965–6)
90th (1967–8)
91st (1969–70)
92nd (1971–2)
93rd (1973–4)
94th (1975–6)
95th (1977–8)
96th (1979–80)
97th (1981–2)
98th (1983–4)
99th (1985–6)
100th (1987–8)
101st (1989–90)
102nd (1991–2)
103rd (1993–4)
104th (1995–6)
105th (1997–8)
106th (1999–2000)
107th (2001–2)
108th (2003–4)
109th (2005–6)
110th (2007–8)
111th (2009–10)
Number of Seats -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Republicans to Democrats Democrats to Republicans

Total Congressional party switches


since the 88th Congress: 5 R to D 21 D to R

Since the 88th Congress Between the 104th Congress Between the 88th Congress
(1963–4) (1995–6) and the (1963–4) and the
103rd Congress (1993–4) 111th Congress (2009–10)**
Majority to minority: 11 9 2
Minority to majority: 15 2 13
Note: *We count only party switchers who switch from caucusing with one party to caucusing with the other. Senator Joe Lieberman’s
change of status to an independent Democrat is not counted as he continues to caucus with Democrats. Jim Jeffords 2001 switch from the
Republican party to independent status is counted, as he began to caucus with Democrats. **Sen. Richard Shelby switched from Democrat to
Republican on November 9, 1994–the day after the midterm elections. Although Shelby’s move technically occurred during the 103rd Congress,
his switch is tied to the election results, and we therefore include it here as a 104th Congress party switch.
Sources: Multiple sources, including the U.S. Senate Historical Office, CNN.com, and the New York Times.

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The State of our Unions
This being a Census year, the editors of Political Report have decided to take a look at findings from recent decennial exer-
cises. We will be looking at a different aspect of who we are and how we have changed in each of the 2010 issues of this
report. With this issue, we start with a look at marriage and divorce.
The Census asked about marital status for the first time in 1880 according to Rose Kreider and Tavia Simmons of the
Census Bureau. From 1880 to 1940, the categories on the form were “single,” “married,” “widowed,” or “divorced.” In
1950, “separated” was added.
In the 2000 Census, 54 percent of the population was married and 19 percent widowed, divorced, or separated.
Twenty-seven percent were never married. The proportion of Americans who are currently married is now lower than it
has been in half a century.
In The First Measured Century, our colleague Ben Wattenberg pointed out that about 80 to 90 percent of Americans
get married during their lifetimes.
Using new data from the American Community Survey, which replaces the Census’s long form, D’Vera Cohn of the
Pew Research Center notes that 6 percent of Texans have wed three times or more. George Strait was on to something,
she says, with his song “All My Ex’s Live in Texas,” because Texas is “home to more thrice-married adults than any other
state.”
In the 2000 Census, 10 percent said they were divorced. In new attitudinal data from CBS News, 53 percent said
divorce should be more difficult to obtain, and 24 percent said easier. These responses are little changed from 20 years
ago. At the same time, a plurality, 46 percent, favor divorce if a marriage isn’t working out.

2000 Census
Married 54%
Divorced 10
Widowed 7
Separated 2
Never married 27

Percent divorced (men) Percent divorced (women)


1950 2000 1950 2000
25–34 years old 2% 6% 25–34 years old 3% 9%
35–59 3 3 35–59 3 16
60 and older 4 9 60 and older 3 10

Median age of first marriage (men) Median age of first marriage (women)
1950 23 1950 20
2008 28 2008 26

Percent of 15–24 year olds men never married Percent of 15–24 year old women never married
1950 77% 1950 56%
2000 88 2000 82

Percent of 25–34 year olds men never married Percent of 25–34 year old women never married
1950 19% 1950 11
2000 39 2000 30

Source: “Marital Status: 2000,” Census 2000 Brief, Rose M. Kreider and Tavia Simmons, Census data.
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Q: How does your marriage . . . ? Q: Should divorce . . . ?


My marriage is better than 2009 1989*
my parents’ 55%
Divorce should be easier
Worse 3
to obtain than it is now 24% 25%
About the same 41
More difficult 53 51
Source: CBS News, December 2009. Stay as it is now (vol. response) 14 18
Note: *1989 question asked by the National Opinion Research Center.
Source: CBS News, December 2009.

Q: If a marriage isn’t working out, do you . . . ? Q: Regardless of whether or not you think it should be
Favor divorce if a marriage isn’t legal, please tell me whether you personally believe that
working out 46% in general . . . ?
Oppose 38
Source: CBS News, December 2009. Divorce is morally acceptable 62%
Morally wrong 30
Source: The Gallup Organization, May 2009.

Poll Potpourri: Tech Trends

Q: As I read a list if changes that have taken place, please tell me if you think each one has been a change for the better.
—————————Over the past 10 years—————————
Change for Change for Hasn’t made
the better the worse much difference
Cell phones 69% 14% 11%
The Internet 65 16 11
Email 65 7 19
Increasing surveillance and security measures 58 17 21
Handheld devices (Blackberries and iPhones) 56 25 12
Online shopping 54 15 24
Social network sites such as Facebook 35 21 31
Internet blogs 29 21 36
Source: Pew Research Center, December 2009.

Q: Have you ever . . . ?


——Teen cell phone users——
Yes No
Sent a sexually suggestive nude or nearly nude photo or video
of yourself to someone else using your cell phone 4% 95%
Received a sexually suggestive nude or nearly nude photo
or video of someone else you know on your cell phone 15 85
Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project, June–September 2009.
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Q: How uncomfortable . . . ?
Personally would be uncomfortable undergoing
a full body scan at an airport security checkpoint 32%
Not uncomfortable 67
Note: Question asked of those who had flown two times or more in the past year. In the poll, the full body scan was described this way: “The
full body scan would show a graphic image of a person’s body underneath his or her clothes. The image would be viewed only by federal
screeners in a separate, private room.” In the same poll, 78 percent approved of U.S. airports using the full body scan.
Source: Gallup/USA Today, January 2010.

From the Gridiron to Congress: First Down and 51% to Go


A handful of former NFL players are seeking to move from the gridiron to the halls of Congress in 2010. Clint Didier (R),
a Super Bowl-winning Redskins tight end in the 1980s, recently announced that he will run against Patty Murray for her
U.S. Senate seat in Washington State. Jay Riemersma (R), formerly a tight end with the Buffalo Bills and the Pittsburgh
Steelers, is running for the open seat in Michigan’s 2nd congressional district. Also, San Diego Chargers offensive tackle
Jon Runyan (R) will retire after this NFL season and try to unseat freshman congressman John Adler in New Jersey’s 3rd
congressional district. Few sports figures have become members of Congress; among the most notable are former sen. Bill
Bradley (D-NJ), who played for the New York Knicks in the 1960s and 1970s, and former rep. Jack Kemp (R-NY), a
quarterback for the Buffalo Bills in the 1960s. According to data compiled for AEI’s Vital Statistics on Congress, the high
point of professional sports representation in Congress came in the 100th Congress when 5 representatives and one Sena-
tor were sports figures. At present, only two members of Congress have backgrounds in professional sports: retiring sen.
Jim Bunning (R-KY), a Baseball Hall of Fame pitcher for the Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies; and Rep. Heath
Shuler (D-NC), who was a quarterback for the Washington Redskins.

President Obama at Year’s End


Q: In the long run, do you think . . . ?
Barack Obama will be a successful president 24%
Unsuccessful 21
Too early to tell 52

Q: Do you . . . ?
-——————Barack Obama’s handling of the-——————
Presidency* Economy Threat of terrorism
Approve
January 2010 49% 42% 51%
February 2009 64 56 50
Disapprove
January 2010 42% 51% 39%
February 2009 17 24 21
Note: *Wording is “is handling his job as President.”
Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of January 2010.

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