GET UP, STAND UP

Research among people in Hackney & Islington into attitudes to and experiences of
street violence suggests that a new community-led campaign to reduce
these crimes by 20% will win wide support across the two boroughs.
CONTENTS

Page

1. Key findings 1
2. Introduction 2
3. Locals’ awareness of the risk of street violence 3
4. “Gimme some truth”: “Walk-on-by”, and “You’re so vain” 4
5. A more active response 5
6. Engaging as a witness 6
7. The level of street violence in Hackney & Islington 7
8. What now? 8

Annexes
1 Poll questionnaire and raw data 9
2 Comparative data for Hackney & Islington 11
3 Methodology 13
4 Violent Crime – news from the street 15

Get Up, Sign Up

Welcome the campaign to reduce street violence by 20% inside back cover
SPARKLE & brighten up your community back cover

January 2011

Witness Confident
312 St Paul’s Road
London N1 2LQ
020 7226 0968
hello@witnessconfident.org
www.witnessconfident.org
Charity No 1131106 | Ltd. Co 6917476
1 KEY FINDINGS

400 people in Hackney and Islington were interviewed on their experiences of and
attitudes to street violence (muggings and assaults)1. This is what they said:

1 in 3 had been or knew som eone who had been a witness or victim of
street violence in the past twelve m onths
• 1 in 25 said they had been victims of street violence in the past year
• 1 in 10 said they had witnessed street violence in the past year
• 1 in 4 said they knew someone who had witnessed or been a victim of street
violence in the past year.
(see page 4)

2 in 3 people are not confident other people w ill help if they w ere being
m ugged on a busy street
• 26% are not at all confident
• 38% are not very confident
• 26% are fairly confident
• 8% are very confident.
(see page 5)

M aking a stand – actions people should do if they see a m ugging

• 95% say shout & call attention (92% always and 3% depends)
• 87% say photograph the suspect or incident (80% always and 7% depends)
• 45% say give chase (30% always and 15% depends)
• 42% say physically intervene (18% always and 24% depends)
(see page 6)

****

Official figures suggest that last year there w ere around 14,400 cases of
street violence in Hackney and Islington
We estimate there were some 7,650 robberies and stranger attacks in Hackney last year
and 6,750 in Islington2.

Using population estimates for Hackney of 212,000 and for Islington of 199,000, this
means 36 in every 1000 people Hackney suffered street violence last year and the
corresponding figure for Islington was 34. The figure from this survey - 40 in every
1000 – is in line with this.
(see page 8)

1
The interviews were conducted in the autumn by telephone by calling randomly selected
landline numbers. Almost 4 in 5 of the respondents lived in the boroughs, the remainder
worked there. (see page 14)
2
These figures are based on the numbers of offences of robbery and of violence formally
recorded by the police in the two boroughs last year. Using national data from the British Crime
Survey, these figures were adjusted (a) to take account of the percentage of violent crimes and
personal robberies that are not reported to the police, and (b) to disregard the proportions that
were commercial robberies, or attacks committed by partners or acquaintances. Further details
on page 8.

1
2. INTRODUCTION

Witness Confident is the charity taking a stand against the street violence that feeds
fear, fractures communities and fuels public disengagement. It is now embarking on a
four year project to reduce the level of street violence in the London boroughs of
Hackney and Islington by 20%.

To gauge the challenges ahead, we surveyed local people to ask

(a) whether they had any experience of street violence in the past year as a
victim or witness,
(b) whether those they know had any experience of street violence in the past
year as a victim or witness,
(c) how confident they were that they and others in the area would help if
someone were attacked or mugged on the street, and
(d) what actions people should and should not take if they witness street
violence.

We also reviewed official data to estimate the actual level of assaults and muggings that
took place in these London boroughs during the last year.

This report reviews the key findings and the way ahead. Annexes 1, 2 and 3 include the
survey questions, the empirical data, a breakdown by borough and the methodology.
Annex 4 reproduces an article we authored in Criminology Matters on the latest
national data on street violence.

K was on her way to go swimming when a man with a small knife jumped out and
demanded her bag. Although she said it only had her swimming things, he still
demanded it and made off. K rang 999. The police came promptly but the officer was
critical of the call centre for failing to pass on any description of the mugger so he was
unable to look out for the offender on his way to the scene.
Survey anecdote, Hackney

2
3 LOCALS’ AW ARENESS OF THE RISK OF STREET VIOLENCE

In our survey of local people’s experience and knowledge of street violence, we found
that in the previous year
• 1 in 25 had been a victim,
• 1 in 10 had witnessed an attack or mugging, and
• 1 in 4 knew someone who had witnessed or been a victim of street violence.

This means that last year one in three people had first or second hand knowledge of
street violence in Hackney & Islington3.

Street violence is a random crime, triggering the valid response “it could have been me”
and so increasing people’s fear about their own safety in the community. As such, an
assault by a stranger or a mugging in the street will have a wider and more damaging
effect on community well-being than an incident of domestic violence or a fight
between work colleagues or school/college mates.

If a victim of domestic violence feels some shame, or if a victim of a fight at work or

school accepts some blame, they may choose to keep their experience to themselves.
This is not true where someone is mugged or attacked by a stranger and so most
victims are likely to tell their family, friends and colleagues. As tales of street violence -
not only from the victims but from those who witness the incident – are relayed
through informal and local networks, the fear people can feel spreads far beyond the
immediate victims.

This problem is compounded because the ‘clear-up’ rate in cases of stranger attacks
and stranger muggings is very low and is most likely about 9%4. This low detection rate
means the deterrent factor is small and so the fear these crimes generate greater.
Sadly, this problem has not had the attention it should have. As a result, while the level
of domestic violence has fallen by 64% in the past twelve years, the level of stranger
attacks last year was the same as it was in 1997.5

To sum up - (a) street violence does more than other crimes to undermine the
community’s sense of safety, (b) informal networks spread news of these offences more
widely than for other violent crimes, and (c) the success rate at detecting and deterring
street violence is very low. These factors have all been working together to undermine
people’s willingness to support one another and their community and their confidence
in the criminal justice system.

H said her area feels much less safe than a decade or two ago. As she is now rather
scared when walking, she tends to drive everywhere. A friend’s son told her he carried
a knife when he went out for his own protection.
Survey anecdote, Islington

3
14 had said they were victims, 38 were witnesses and 105 said they knew of someone who had
been a victim or witness. While this makes 157 affirmative responses, 29 people answered yes to
more than one question and so 128 people – or 32% - answered affirmatively.
4
See Annex 4 and the table on page 18.
5
In 1997 there were 784,000 stranger attacks and in 2010 there were 783,000 in England &
Wales (British Crime Survey) Crime in England & Wales 2009/10, page 28 Table 2.01.

3
4 “GIM M E SOM E TRUTH”: “W ALK ON BY” and “YOU’RE SO VAIN”

We asked local people how confident they were, if they were being mugged on a busy
street, that passers-by would help. 8% said they were very confident, 26% fairly
confident, 38% not very confident and 26% not at all confident.

This means that 2 in 3 people in Hackney & Islington believe that, if they were being
mugged in a busy street, people from these communities will walk-on-by. However,
when we asked the same people whether they themselves would help if they witnessed
a mugging in a busy street, 3 in 46 said they were confident that they would help.

These findings suggest a serious lack of confidence in the neighbourliness of others in

Hackney and Islington. However as three quarters of people say they themselves will
help if they witness a mugging, the picture is much more positive.

As it is common for the answers people give in surveys about their own conduct to
tend to portray them at their best, it seems reasonable to assume that the correct
answer lies half way between these two figures. If so, this suggests that one in two
people in Hackney and Islington will help if they see a mugging. This is both important
and reassuring as psychological studies (the bystander theory7) and anecdote suggest
that where one person does go to help in such a situation, others will follow their lead.

As this message becomes clear, people’s confidence in the neighbourliness of others in

Hackney & Islington will increase, and so more people will themselves become
confident and act confidently. As more people engage and bear witness, this will deter
opportunistic criminals. Equally, where a mugging or street attack does take place,
more witnesses make it more likely the police will apprehend and convict the right
offender.

Inevitably public confidence will be informed and influenced by the messages given
out by the police and other authorities. The examples in the box below show two
different approaches toward encouraging witnesses to engage.

26 November 2009 The lead story in the Hackney Gazette reported an ‘ultimatum’ the
police were issuing to three passers-by who could have important evidence about a
murder on a local street late one evening.

25 November 2010 Hackney Gazette reports on page 2 that two brothers were jailed
for 12 and 5 years for attacking a stranger with a knife. The police said “This was a
callous attack on a young man that left him with life-changing injuries. The two
suspects were left with no choice but to plead guilty as a number of witnesses were
prepared to come forward and give evidence”.
Hackney Gazette

6
33% were very confident, 42% fairly confident, 19% not very confident and 5% not at all
confident that they would help
7
Bystander theory, put simply, is that in a crowd people tend to instinctively wait to see how
others react before taking any initiative themselves and thus the likelihood of civic engagement
reduces rather than increases with the more people on the street.

4
5 A M ORE ACTIVE RESPONSE

We asked respondents which of nine actions they thought people should and should
not take when they witnessed a mugging. The nine actions fell into two categories,
which can broadly be described as active and passive engagement. Below, we look at
their views on active engagement:

Action People should It depends Don’t know People should

% % % NOT
%
Shout & call
attention
92 3 2 4
Use a camera-
phone to
photograph the 80 7 5 10
suspect or scene
Give chase 30 15 10 45
Physically
intervene
18 24 16 43

What actions people should and should not take if they see a mugging

These answers show that people in Hackney & Islington support a more active
response from the public when they see street violence. After two decades where the
official message to people who see a mugging has been ‘just call 999’, it is notable that
less than half of those surveyed said people should not intervene or give chase. This
failure to back official advice – particularly when it was about avoiding risk to oneself –
is striking. We believe it reflects (a) the fact that many people realise that by the time
the police respond to a mugging the offender has fled the scene, and (b) a lack of
confidence in the recent strategy for tackling street violence.

Happily, last January the Metropolitan Commissioner Sir Paul Stephenson called for the
criminal justice system to give out a different message.
"I have worried on occasions that we have got the advice slightly wrong. Our first
response should not be to discourage people from doing it. It should be to applaud their
bravery and courage... to express gratitude that we have got citizens who would do that
thing. People have got to make a reasonable judgment but to actively discourage them from
being responsible citizens is wrong."8

R, while cycling, witnessed a mugging when a motorbike a few yards ahead snatched a
pedestrian’s laptop bag and made off. The distraught victim shouted for help. R
instinctively gave chase, hoping to apprehend the mugger or at least get the number
plate. Though the traffic was busy, the mugger sped off down a side road. When R
returned to offer the victim his phone to call the police, people around said it would be
a waste of time as by the time the police arrived, the mugger would be long gone.
Hackney, Witness Confident Case (Nov 2010)

8
“Celebrate Have-a-go Heroes, say Met Police Chief” 20 Jan 2010, see BBC website
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8470538.stm

5
6 ENGAGING AS A W ITNESS

In this section, we look at respondents’ views on the more passive actions of engaging
as a witness in the criminal justice system and tending the victim. Again they were
asked if, when people see a mugging, they should or should not do any of the five
actions set out in the first column.

Action People should It depends Don’t know People should

% % % NOT
%
call 999 97 1 1 2
remember how
mugger looks
96 2 2 1
give police a
statement
96 2 2 1
go to court 82 7 5 7
tend to the
victim
96 2 1 1

What actions people should and should not take if they see a mugging

These answers suggest there is a welcome support across Hackney and Islington for
the idea that people should engage with the police. The one answer that does give
cause for concern relates to attending court - where 7% of those surveyed said it
depends, 7% said people should not and 5% said they did not know. This does not
chime loudly with the recent call from Senior Presiding Judge for England & Wales
“Every one who witnesses crime needs to come forward and speak out as I say however
painful and difficult that might be. If you’re a witness, saying what you have seen and
turning up in court remains vital, you can’t neutralise your conscience and say that the
whole thing can be proved forensically, it often won’t be. Society has obligations to each of
us; we also have duties to society to play our part in the maintenance of the rule of law.9”

To rekindle and foster this civic obligation, we believe the criminal justice system
should conduct a pilot where the evidence of independent eye witnesses is obtained at
the scene by video recording. Under a provision already on the statute book10, this
recording could be used as the witness’ evidence-in-chief. This would reduce the need
for the witness to be available every time the case is listed to go ahead, while ensuring
that the witness can attend if the defence do in fact need to challenge his or her
evidence. More to the point, it will mean that eye witnesses’ evidence is more reliable
and they will not be subjected to a challenging memory test months after the incident.

C said her husband was assaulted when on his bike and reported it to the police. C did
not want him to because she was afraid they would be targeted, having windows
broken etc. In fact nothing like that happened and the assailant got 6 months.
Survey anecdote, Islington

9
Lord Justice Leveson, LJMU Roscoe Foundation for Citizenship Annual Lecture (29 Nov 2010)
10
section 137 Criminal Justice Act 2003

6
7 THE LEVEL OF STREET VIOLENCE IN HACKNEY & ISLINGTON

Robberies
The number of robberies formally recorded by the police in the two boroughs last year
(Apr 09 - Mar 10) was 1,092 in Hackney and 992 in Islington.

The British Crime Survey11 estimates that in 89% of robberies the victims are individuals
as opposed to businesses. Applying this national figure to the two boroughs, we
estimate the number of robberies of individuals that were reported to and recorded by
the police last year as 970 in Hackney and 880 in Islington.

The British Crime Survey12 estimates that 55% of robberies of individuals are not
reported to and recorded by the police. On this basis there will have been around 2,150
robberies of individuals in Hackney last year and approaching 2,000 in Islington.

Violent crim es
The number of offences of violence formally recorded by the police in the two
boroughs last year (Apr 09 - Mar 10) was 6,659 in Hackney and 5,836 in Islington.

The British Crime Survey13 estimates that 55% of violent crimes are not reported to and
recorded by the police. On this basis there will have been approaching 15,000 violent
crimes in Hackney last year and approaching 13,000 in Islington.

The British Crime Survey estimates that 37% of violent crimes (both unreported and
reported to the police) were stranger attacks14. On this basis there will have been some
5,500 stranger attacks in Hackney last year and around 4,750 in Islington.

Street violence in Hackney & Islington 2009-10

These figures suggest that the number of stranger attacks and robberies in the
boroughs last year were 7,650 incidents Hackney and 6,750 in Islington, totalling for
the two boroughs some 14,400.

Caveat and thanks

This estimate is based on the best official data available. As some of the adjustments
are made using national rather than local data, these estimates are not – and should
not be assumed to be - statistically sound.

While it is our estimate, we do record our thanks to Philip Hall at the Home Office
Crime Survey Unit for his corrections and comments.

11
Table 2c on page 18 of Crime in England & Wales (BCS 2009-10).
12
Table 2.11 on page 43 of Crime in England & Wales (BCS 2009-10). While this is a national
estimate, the Home Office Crime Surveys Unit has confirmed the estimates used here are also
good for unrecorded violent crime in London.
13
Ibid.
14
Table 2.01, page 28 of Crime in England & Wales (BCS 2009-10). Other categories include
domestic and acquaintance violence. While this is a national estimate, the Home Office Crime
Surveys Unit has confirmed the estimates used here are also good for London.

7
8 W HAT NOW ?

The survey shows there is a strong appetite among people in Hackney & Islington to
turn the tables on street violence. Three in four people say they themselves will engage
if they see street violence and there is growing support for the idea that people should
engage actively.

We will be working with people, police and politicians to support and build this
welcome change of attitude. If schools, businesses, faith groups and the media also
play their part too, we are confident that these local communities can reduce the level
of street violence over the next four years by 20%.

For our part, Witness Confident will be

• piloting an interactive Google map for the police and public to post
witness appeals and log incidents of street violence;
• providing free legal advice to witnesses and victims in cases of street
violence who may be unwilling or unsure about talking to the police;
• engaging with the coming generation in schools, colleges and youth
clubs; and
• working with the police, politicians, the media and across the
community.

If you wish to support or help with this campaign to reduce street violence by 20%
please

1. sign up and welcome the campaign (see page 19)

2. remember how to be a confident witness, sparkle and brighten up your
community (see back cover), and
3. if you want more information, contact us through

Website www.witnessconfident.org
Email hello@witnessconfident.org
Phone 020 7226 0968

N, an elderly man, said two boys had stopped him in the street. They demanded
money, failing which they threatened to hurt him. N flatly refused to give them
anything and eventually they just walked off without any incident.
Survey anecdote, Islington

8
 ANNEX 1
SURVEY – QUESTIONS & EM PIRICAL DATA

Question 1: Do you live or work in Hackney or Islington? (IF MORE THAN ONE, CODE
WHERE INTERVIEWEE LIVES)

Q1 Num ber (400) %

Hackney - live 175 44
Hackney - work 25 6
Islington - live 140 35
Islington - work 60 15

Question 2: I’d now like to ask you about your experience of street violence in these
boroughs. Have you or someone you know been mugged or assaulted in these
boroughs in the last 12 months?

Q2 Num ber (399) %

Yes - personally 14 4
Yes - acquaintance 69 17
No 316 79

Question 3: Turning to the role of witnesses, have you or someone you know
witnessed a mugging or assault in these boroughs in the last 12 months15

Q3 Num ber (398) %

Yes - personally 38 10
Yes - acquaintance 36 9
No 324 81

Question 4: If someone tried to mug you on a busy street in your (question 1 coded)
borough, how confident are you that someone on the street would come and help?

Q4 Num ber (365) %

Very confident 31 8
Fairly confident 96 26
Not very confident 142 38
Not at all confident 96 26

Question 5: If you saw someone being mugged on a busy street in your (question 1
coded) borough, how confident are you that you would go and help?

Q5 Num ber (375) %

Very confident 126 34
Fairly confident 159 42
Not very confident 70 19
Not at all confident 20 5

15
29 respondents answered yes to both question 2 (victim) and question 3 (witness) knowledge
of street violence.

9
Question 6: Where someone is being mugged on a street, which of the following
actions do you think passers by SHOULD take?
&
Question 7: Where someone is being mugged on a street, which of the following
actions do you think passers by should NOT take?

DON’T SHOULD
Q6 & Q7 categories SHOULD DEPENDS 16
KNOW NOT
shout & call attention 368 (92%17) 10 (3%) 7 (2%) 15 (4%)
physically intervene 70 (18%) 94 (24%) 63 (16%) 173 (43%)
give chase 120 (30%) 61 (15%) 40 (10%) 179 (45%)
use camera-phone to photo
318 (80%) 26 (7%) 18 (5%) 38 (10%)
mugger/incident

remember how mugger looks 382 (96%) 7 (2%) 6 (2%) 5 (1%)

call 999 386 (97%) 4 (1%) 3 (1%) 7 (2%)
tend to the victim 385 (96%) 7 (2%) 5 (1%) 3 (1%)
give police a statement 383 (96%) 8 (2%) 6 (2%) 3 (1%)
go to court 328 (82%) 28 (7%) 18 (5%) 26 (7%)
Numbers who mentioned
0 - 118 (30%)
none of the above

16
At the outset, questions 6 & 7 were asked separately. As it quickly became apparent that the
respondents preferred to answer the questions simultaneously, those two questions were
amalgamated to: “Where someone is being mugged on a street, which of the following actions
do you think passers by SHOULD take, and which of the following actions do you think passers
by SHOULD NOT take?” In answering, the respondents were told they could say “Yes” for should
take, “No” for should not take, or they could say “Depends” or “Don’t know” if they couldn’t
answer the question – though the last two were not coded. In those cases where the
respondent did not answer ”Yes” or “No” the staff who conducted the survey say 4 in 10 said
they didn’t know and 6 in 10 said “it depends” (how able bodied the witness was; whether the
mugger was armed; if there was more than one mugger; if the witness had their children with
them etc). That being the case, the Table above reflects this distinction.
17
Percentage figures are calculated by rounding up to the nearest significant figure. In some
categories this has led to a total of over 100%. However the core figures still only come to 200
per borough, 400 for the entire survey.

10
 ANNEX 2
Breakdown of results by percentage for each borough

Question 1: Do you live or work in Hackney or Islington?

Q1 Num ber (400) %

Hackney - live 175 44
Hackney - work 25 6
Islington - live 140 35
Islington - work 60 15

Question 2: Have you or someone you know been mugged or assaulted in these boroughs
in the last 12 months?

Q2 Hackney Islington
No 75% 84%
Yes – Personally or
25% 16%
Acquaintance

Question 3: Have you or someone you know witnessed a mugging or assault in these
boroughs in the last 12 months?

Q3 Hackney Islington
No 81% 82%
Yes - Personally or
19% 18%
Acquaintance

Question 4: If someone tried to mug you on a busy street in your (question 1 coded)
borough, how confident are you that someone on the street would come and help?

Q4 Hackney Islington
Very confident 10% 7%
Fairly confident 26% 27%
Not very confident 39% 38%
Not at all confident 25% 28%

Question 5: If you saw someone being mugged on a busy street in your (question 1 coded)
borough, how confident are you that you would go and help?

Q5 Hackney Islington
Very confident 30% 37%
Fairly confident 46% 39%
Not very confident 19% 19%
Not at all confident 5% 5%

11
Question 6: Where someone is being mugged on a street, which of the following actions do
you think passers by should take?
&
Question 7: Where someone is being mugged on a street, which of the following actions do
you think passers-by should NOT take?

Hackney Results

DON’T SHOULD
Q6 & Q7 categories SHOULD DEPENDS
KNOW NOT
shout & call attention 182 (91%18) 5 (3%) 3 (2%) 10 (5%)
physically intervene 31 (16%) 46 (23%) 31 (16%) 92 (46%)
give chase 52 (26%) 30 (15%) 20 (10%) 98 (49%)
use camera-phone to photo
161 (81%) 14 (7%) 10 (5%) 15 (8%)
mugger/incident

remember how mugger looks 193 (97%) 2 (1%) 2 (1%) 3 (2%)

call 999 191 (96%) 2 (1%) 2 (1%) 5 (3%)
tend to the victim 196 (98%) 2 (1%) 1 (1%) 1 (1%)
give police a statement 192 (96%) 4 (2%) 3 (2%) 1 (1%)
go to court 158 (79%) 16 (8%) 10 (5%) 16 (8%)
Numbers who mentioned
0 - 58 (29%)
none of the above

Islington Results:

DON’T SHOULD
Q6 & Q7 categories SHOULD DEPENDS
KNOW NOT
shout & call attention 186 (93%) 5 (3%) 4 (2%) 5 (3%)
physically intervene 39 (20%) 48 (24%) 32 (16%) 81 (41%)
give chase 68 (34%) 31 (16%) 20 (10%) 81 (41%)
use camera-phone to photo
157 (79%) 12 (6%) 8 (4%) 23 (12%)
mugger/incident

remember how mugger looks 189 (95%) 5 (3%) 4 (2%) 2 (1%)

call 999 195 (98%) 2 (1%) 1 (1%) 2 (1%)
tend to the victim 189 (95%) 5 (3%) 4 (2%) 2 (1%)
give police a statement 191 (96%) 4 (2%) 3 (2%) 2 (1%)
go to court 170 (85%) 12 (6%) 8 (4%) 10 (5%)
Numbers who mentioned
0 - 60 (30%)
none of the above

18
See footnote 15 on page 11.

12
 ANNEX 3
Methodology

The survey questions were designed internally and then revised after consultation with
IPSOS MORI19. The questions are shown in Annex 1 along with the empirical data.

Between 27 July and 28 September 2010, we20 conducted a telephone poll of residents
and workers in Islington and Hackney. Essentially, this was a series of cold calls to
landlines randomly selected21 by us about people’s knowledge and views on street
violence. The response rate was 32%.

We interviewed 400 individuals who lived and/or worked in Hackney and Islington –
200 in each borough. Where the respondent lived and worked in the boroughs, they
were coded by the borough they lived in.

We asked all those who participated in the survey whether they would be willing to
answer the same or a similar survey in 2 years time. 90% said they would.

Caveats
Using landline numbers and calling primarily during the day, over two-thirds of those
we spoke to described themselves as ‘adult’, one quarter as ‘senior’ and 5% as ‘youth’.
This reveals a weighting in this sample towards the elderly and away from youth22.

It should be noted that 79% of respondents lived in either borough, with the remaining
21% working there.

The Table on the next pages shows the ethnicity of those surveyed as against the GLA
demographic estimates. This shows that the ethnic breakdown of those we surveyed
was broadly consistent with the borough’s population. If anything, the weighting in
our survey is toward the black community as 5% of those we surveyed described
themselves as Black British - a category not used in the GLA estimates.

Finally, where our call was initially answered by a non-English speaker, we asked to talk
with someone else at the same number who could participate in the survey. While this
succeeded in many cases, it meant that 4% of all calls answered could not be surveyed
for this reason.

19
Thanks to Oliver Sweet and Fiona Anderson at IPSOS-MORI.
20
The survey was conducted by Dom Wiltshire, Ally Spicer and Anna Myers. The database was
devised and analysed by Richard Barron.
21
`Lists of telephone numbers were created by combining a list of 200 random 4 digit numbers
with the published local exchange codes covering the two boroughs.
22
The official data for Hackney in mid-2008 was that there were 212,000 residents, of whom
21% were under 15; 6% between 15-19; 62% between 20-64 and 9% over 65. As to Islington, the
website data is that of 199,150 residents, 17% are under 16, 5% between 16-20, 61% between 21-
65, and 7% over 65.

13
 Ethnicity comparator

W itness Confident Survey GLA Estim ates % 23

Ethnicity Num ber % Average Hackney Islington
White British 204 52.0 52.8 47.1 58.4
Irish 15 3.8 3.6 2.6 4.5
Any other white background 47 12.0 11.8 11.2 12.3
Mixed: White and Black Caribbean 2 0.5 1.4 1.6 1.2
Mixed: White and Black African 3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7
Mixed White and Asian 1 0.3 1.0 0.8 1.1
Mixed: Other Mixed 1 0.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
Indian 14 3.6 3.2 4.1 2.2
Pakistani 5 1.3 1.1 1.4 0.8
Bangladeshi 6 1.5 2.6 2.8 2.3
Any other Asian 6 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0
Black Caribbean 22 5.6 6.7 9.2 4.2
Black African 27 6.9 8.0 10.8 5.2
Other Black 2 0.5 1.6 2.2 1.0
Chinese 5 1.3 1.9 1.4 2.3
Other 9 2.3 1.8 1.9 1.7
British 2 0.5 - - -
Black British 21 5.4 - - -
Did not want to give 8
Total 400

23
Data Management and Analysis Group, Greater London Authority, Demography Update
October 2007, (2007)

14
 ANNEX 4

Violent Crime 2010 – news from the street

Abstract
This paper appeared in the autumn edition of Criminology Matters. It looks at violent
crimes committed by strangers and their impact on public confidence in the Criminal
Justice System. Drawing on the latest British Crime Survey data that there were over 1
million such incidents last year, the paper suggests that last year 1 adult in 3 would
have experienced or heard of an incident of street violence through friends, family or
colleagues. As the number of stranger attacks is the same as in 1997, as less than 10%
of street violence is cleared up and as the random nature of such crimes spreads
rational fear, this issue undermines public confidence in the Criminal Justice System
more than any other.

1 m illion reasons to stop and think

The British Crime Survey (BCS) estimates that over 1 million people were attacked or
mugged by strangers last year. As the Table below shows the headline figures were
that there were 783,000 stranger attacks in 2009/10 and that people were mugged by
strangers 290,540 times1. For any reader unfamiliar with the BCS, it is worth pointing
out that these figures exclude incidents where the victim was under 16 and relate only
to crime in England & Wales.

Table 1 below also gives a good idea of how serious some of these incidents of street
violence2 were as it shows those that resulted in injury and those that needed medical
treatment3.

Stranger attacks Stranger muggings4 Totals

Incidents 783,000 290,540 1,073,540
No injury 407,160 191,466 598,626
Physical injury 375,840 98,783 474,623
Medical attention 140,940 55,202 196,142
Hospital stay 23,490 11,621 35,111
Table 1. Street violence - injuries sustained

1
Crime in England & Wales (2009/10) page 28. Table 2.01. This Table records that there were
398,000 muggings. The 290,540 figure used here for stranger muggings is based on the BCS
data that 73% of all muggings were by strangers (page 75 Table 3.17).
2
In this paper, we define street violence as attacks and muggings by strangers (and so exclude
those by spouses, partners and acquaintances). As the British Crime Survey details, some
stranger attacks and muggings will happen on public transport, at or around a pub, club, the
workplace or home.
3
Ibid, page 62, Table 3.02.
4
We have assumed that the fact and degree of injury is the same for stranger muggings as for
the 27% of muggings that were not carried out by strangers. As this column aggregates two sets
of data that was rounded up by the BCS, these numbers are not as statistically sounds as direct
BCS figures.

15
14 m illion rational people
Being attacked or mugged by a stranger is something that most people will relate to
friends, family, neighbours and colleagues. The same openness cannot be assumed for
domestic or acquaintance violence where victims can feel some sense of
embarrassment, shame or culpability.

As to the 35,111 victims of street violence who required one or more night in hospital
last year, we think news of these incidents would have travelled widely among those
who know them. On the assumption such serious incidents were communicated to ten
family members, ten friends, ten people in the neighbourhood/school and ten work
colleagues/contacts who knew the victim, then over 1,400,000 would have heard of an
incident first or second hand. If each of these forty people then mentioned the incident
to three other people, over 4 million would have heard from a close source news of
serious street violence where the victim was admitted to hospital.

Turning to the 161,031 incidents where the victim required medical attention (but not a
stay in hospital), if four family, four friends, four in the neighbourhood and four
colleagues were told about this, then over 2.5 million people would have heard of first
or second hand of some serious violence last year. If each of these told two other
people, then over 5 million would have heard of a violent and injurious attack or
mugging by a stranger.

On these assumptions, some 9 million people in England & Wales last year would have
heard through informal networks that someone they knew, knew of (or could claim to
be one remove from) was attacked or mugged by a stranger and injured so badly that
they needed medical attention or hospitalisation as a result.

If we then assume that news of (a) the other 278,481 cases where the victim was
battered and bruised and (b) the 598,626 where there was no physical injury was
communicated to three other people – a further 2.5 million people would have heard
from a close source of a stranger attack or mugging.

Finally if one then factors in the 1 million victims and assumes that for each incident of
street violence two members of the public witnessed it, we have an additional 3 million
people. On these assumptions, last year 14.5 million would have had first or second
hand information about someone being attacked or mugged by a stranger. This
amounts to one in three adults in England & Wales.

W hat is fostering fear of crim e?

Street violence - whether experienced as a victim or witness or about which one has
heard a graphic or troubling tale from a friend or colleague - has an impact on
people’s fear about crime. First, where the victim is someone we know, saw or know
of we can readily imagine it could have been us. Secondly, because stranger attacks
and muggings are random, rationally we realise that the victim could have been us.

As an illustration, if I beat up my wife, it will not mean that all her female friends then
fear their husbands or partners will do the same to them. However, if my wife is
attacked or mugged by a stranger in the local shopping centre then her friends will
have good cause to fear that they might too be victims of such random violence.

The implications of this for people’s fears about crime are clear. As the British Crime
Survey stated in 2007, the perceived risk of being attacked by a stranger has a direct
and strong impact on people’s views about crime:

16
 “Analysis based on the 2002/03 BCS showed the following perception measures to
be strongly independently associated with perceiving the national crime rate to
have increased ‘a lot’: thinking that the criminal justice system was not effective in
reducing crime and being fairly or very worried about being attacked by a
stranger.” 5

While many in authority who are frustrated with the public’s scepticism about falling
crime seem to blame the media6, this evidence suggests that the real reason lies in the
incidence of street violence. First the amount of street violence – over a million cases
a year – is high. Secondly, even if other crimes have fallen, the level of stranger attacks
is the same as in 19977. Thirdly, the random nature of street violence creates rational
fear among those who witness such attacks and those who hear of them. Fourthly, as
we show below, the Criminal Justice System seems to offer the public little confidence
when it comes to its ability to reduce or deal with street violence.

Reporting rates for street violence

Table 2 below shows the number of incidents of street violence and those that were
reported to the police in 2009/10.
Stranger attacks Stranger muggings Total
Incidents 783,000 290,540 1,073,540
Reported to police8 360,180 129,290 489,470
% unreported 54% 56% 55%
Table 2. Street violence – incidents reported to the police

As to the incidents that were not reported, the BCS collects data on why people do not
report violent crime to the police9. The three main reasons given were
a) trivial/ no loss/ police would not/ could not do anything 52%
b) private/ dealt with themselves 36%, and
c) reported to other authorities 9%

While this BCS data is not broken down by the type of violence (domestic,
acquaintance, stranger) suffered, it seems most unlikely that a victim of an attack or
mugging by a stranger would view it as private or feel able to deal with it him or herself
(other than psychologically). As to the third reason, it also seems unlikely that street
violence could be reported to some authority other than the police10.

On this basis the overwhelming reason why street violence is not reported will be the
first one – that the incident was “trivial or caused no loss or that the police could not or
would not do anything”. As 44% of incidents of street violence caused the victims
physical injury, it is unlikely these were viewed as trivial and so it seems likely that lack
of confidence in ability of the police to do anything will be the dominant reason why
incidents of street violence are not reported.

5
Crime in England & Wales (2007/8), p 130. Despite this finding, the perceived risk of being
attacked by a stranger is not data that is collected officially.
6
From a straw poll, it seems unlikely that 10,000 (or 1% of the 1 million cases of street violence
last year) were reported in local or national media.
7
784,000 in 1997 as against 783,000 in 2009/10. In the intervening years, it fluctuated a bit.
8
Crime in England & Wales (2009/10) p 43, Table 2.11.
9
Ibid, Page 44, Table 2.12
10
As victims under 16 are excluded from the BCS, schools are unlikely to have been seen as an
authority.

17
Clear-up rates for street violence
To gauge whether and how far this lack of confidence is justified, one needs to look at
the clear-up rate for the street violence that is reported to the police. It is important to
note that clear-up data is collected separately from the BCS and that there is no
breakdown that distinguishes the rates by stranger, acquaintance and domestic
violence.

This is relevant because for an offence to be ‘cleared-up’ within Home Office rules, at
the very least (i) a suspect needs to have been identified to the police, (ii) the police
need to have told the suspect that they hold him or her responsible, and (iii) the police
need to impose a sanction 11 on the suspect. It is self-evident in every case of domestic
or acquaintance violence that has been reported to the police, the identification of the
suspect can be taken for granted. By contrast, where the suspect is a stranger, his or
her identification will be the highest hurdle facing the police and the Crown
Prosecution Service. As such, it is inevitable that the clear-up rate for stranger attacks
will be considerably lower than that for other offences of violence.

On this basis and on the assumption that the clear up rate for stranger attacks and
muggings is the same as that for personal robbery12, then some 93,000 offences of
street violence would have been cleared up last year. As Table 3 below shows, this is a
clear-up rate of 9%.

Stranger Stranger Total

attacks muggings
No. of incidents 783,000 290,540 1,073,540
No. reported to police13 360,180 129,290 489,470
No. ‘cleared up’ by police14 68,434 24,565 92,999
Clear up rate as a % of all 9% 8% 9%
incidents
Table 3. Street Violence – clear-up rates

Witness Confident
www.witnessconfident.org

reproduced from “Criminology Matters’

11
These sanctions are being charged, cautioned, reprimanded or where when the person is
convicted of another crime this offence is taken into consideration.
12
19% is the clear-up rate for personal robbery as against 44% for all offences of violence
13
See note 8 above: 46% of BCS stranger attacks were reported to the police.
14
Ibid, Table 6.01, pages 157/8. If for stranger attacks one uses the 44% clear-up rate for all
offences of violence against the person instead of the 19% rate for robbery of the person, then
the figures in the bottom line of the Table would read 20%, 8% and 17%.

18
We are inviting people who live or work in Hackney & Islington to show their
support for this campaign by signing up to the following statement:

I welcome this campaign to reduce street violence by 20% in

Hackney and Islington. I will encourage people I know to be
confident witnesses if they see street violence and I will try to be
one myself.

If you want to sign up, please email us at help@witnessconfident.org.

To find out how you can be a confident witness, please turn over.
If you see street violence, remember the choice isn't just between walking on
by or wading on in. You can be a confident witness by remembering to
sparkle and brighten up the community:

Shout for help

Photograph or remember the suspects & scene
Avoid taking risks with your own safety
Report the crime
Keep a record of what you saw
Lead by example
Engage with the police

If you would like to welcome and join our campaign to reduce street violence
in Hackney & Islington by 20%, please let us know if you agree with the
statement overleaf.

Thank you.

www.witnessconfident.org