JQP 2023

SOALAN SATU (20 Markah)

a) Dengan menggunakan data jualan tahunan untuk tahun 2000-2007, guna kaedah
regresi linear untuk menentukan persamaan regresi linear untuk jualan.
Using the annual sales data for 2000-2007 use the linear regression method and
determine the estimated sales linear equation.

Answer:
x = 4.5 , y = 11.63 , b = 2.63, a = - 0.21
Y = - 0.21 + 2.63 X

b) Kirakan ramalan jualan bagi tahun 2008 dan 2009.

Calculate the sales forecast for 2008 and 2009.

Answer:
2008: -0.21 + 2.63(9) = 23.46
2009: -0.21 +2.63(10) = 26.09

c) Tentukan pekali korelasi dan pekali penentuan.

Determine the correlation coefficient and the coefficient of determination.

Answer:
r = 0.965
r2 = 0.932

d) Huraikan SATU (1) perbezaan antara model regresi dan peramalan tren.
Describe ONE (1) difference between a regression model and trend projection.

Answer:
In trend projection, the independent is always time

e) Bolehkah dikatakan semua model peramalan adalah subjektif? Berikan DUA (2)
sebab.
Can we say that all forecasting models are subjective? Give TWO (2) reasons.

Answer:
The forecasters always make choice as to which variables to include, what data is
acceptable, and which measurement is appropriate.
 
 
 
 
 
 

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 JQP 2023

SOALAN DUA (20 Markah)

a) Berikut adalah model bagi pengaturcaraan linear:

A linear programming model as follows:
(i) Tukarkan kekangan-kekangan di atas kepada persamaan.
Convert the above constraints to equalities.

Answer:
Max Z = 3 X1 + 2 X2 - X3 + 0S1 + 0S2 +0S3
S.T : X1 + X2 + 2 X3 +S1 +0S2+ 0S3 = 10
2 X1 - X2 + X3 + 0S1 + 1S2 + 0S3 = 20
3 X1 + X2 + 0X3 + 0S1 + 0S2 + S3 = 15
X1, X2, X3, S1, S2, S3 ≥ 0

(ii) Bina jadual simpleks awal dan selesaikan.

Set up the initial simplex tableau and solve.

Answer:
Final Tableau: X1 = 6, X2 = 0, S1 = 3, S2 = 0, S3 = 6, Z=30

b) Tukarkan LP model berikut kepada format yang standard.

Convert the following LP model to a standard form.
Answer:
Max 8X + 10Y + 0S1 + 0S2 – MA1- MA2
S.T: 5X + 3Y + S1 = 34
2X + 3Y + A1 = 24
Y – S2 + A2 = 3
X, Y, S1, S2, A1, A2 ≥ 0

c) Berikut adalah sebahagian penyelesaian simplex untuk masalah maksimum selepas

satu pusingan. Isikan tempat kosong jadual ini dan selesaikan.
The following is a partial simplex tableau for a maximization problem after one
iteration. Fill out the rest of this tableau, and then solve the problem.

Cj 5 3 6 0 0 0
BV X1 X2 X3 S1 S2 S3 RHS
0 S1 7/2 4/3 0 1 -1/6 0 24
6 X3 1/2 2/3 1 0 1/6 0 3
0 S3 3/2 2/3 0 0 1/6 1 15
Zj 3 4 0 0 1 0 18

Cj-Zj 2 -1 0 0 -1 0

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 JQP 2023

SOALAN TIGA (20 Markah)

a) Penyelesaian awal untuk jadual pengangkutan adalah seperti berikut. Gunakan kaedah
batu loncatan untuk mengenalpasti pembahagian yang lebih baik.
Transportation tableau with the initial solution is provided. Use the stepping stone
method to identify a better allocation.
Answer:

TO
R S T CAPACITY

FROM
A 80 10 2 10 3
1 100

4 110 1 5
B 110

0 0 50
0
D 50

REQUIREMENT
80 120 60 260

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 JQP 2023

b) Jadual berikut menggambarkan masalah pengangkutan.

The following table describes a transportation problem:

(i) Gunakan kaedah Penjuru Barat Laut untuk menghasilkan penyelesaian awal.
Use the northwest corner method to get an initial solution.

Answer:

TO
D E F CAPACITY

FROM
A 20 20 3 2
2 40

1 10 4 20 2
B 30

4 3 30
2
C 30

REQUIREMENT
20 30 50 100

(ii) Berapakah kos bagi penyelesaian awal tersebut?

What is the cost of the initial solution?

Answer:
TC = 240

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 JQP 2023

(iii)Gunakan kaedah batu loncatan untuk mendapatkan penyelesaian yang optimum.

Use the stepping-stone method to find the optimal solution.

Answer:
Final tableau
TO
D E F CAPACITY

FROM
A 30 3 10 2
2 40

1 4 10 2
B 20 30

4 3 30
2
C 30

REQUIREMENT
20 30 50 100

(iv) Berapakah kos untuk penyelesaian optimum tersebut?

What is the cost of the optimal solution?

Answer:
TC = 210

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 JQP 2023

SOALAN EMPAT (20 Markah)

a) Tentukan purata kadar servis.
Determine the mean service rate.

Answer:
µ = 15 tourists/hr

b) Tentukan purata kadar ketibaan.

Determine the mean arrival rate.

Answer:
λ = 60 / 6 = 10 tourists/hr

c) Tentukan jangkaan masa menunggu dalam barisan tersebut.

Determine the expected waiting time in the queue.

Answer:
Wq = 0.133 hr or 8 min

d) Tentukan jangkaan jumlah masa seseorang pelancong perlu menunggu untuk dilayan.
Determine the expected amount of time a tourist would spend getting served and
waiting in line.

Answer:
W = 0.2 hr or 12 min

e) Senaraikan TIGA (3) komponen sistem giliran bagi situasi di atas.

List THREE (3) components of waiting line system for the above situation.

Answer:
1) arrivals 2) servers 3) waiting line structure

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 JQP 2023

SOALAN LIMA (20 Markah)

a) Bincangkan TIGA (3) kelebihan teknik simulasi.

Discuss THREE (3) advantages of simulation technique.

Answer:
Simulations are flexible, can analyze large complex problems. Can ask what-if
question, can avoid interruption with the present system, can study the impact of
individual variables on the modeled system, can stimulate many time periods
quickly, can incorporate any probability distribution.

b) Bincangkan TIGA (3) kekurangan teknik simulasi.

Discuss THREE (3) disadvantages of simulation technique.

Answer:
Good models can be expensive, models do not generate optimal solutions, human
must generate conditions and constraints information for solutions.

c) Berapakah purata nombor ketibaan dalam tempoh ini?

What is the average number of arrivals during this period?

Answer:
Average number of arrival = 7.3 cars.