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February 2011 | As rapid urbanization is one of the biggest macro trends of our time, you can't go wrong
innovating for existing and newly minted 'CITYSUMERS' around the world. Enjoy!
We flagged URBANOMICS as one of our 11 Crucial Consumer Trends for 2011, but given urbanization is
one of the absolute 'mega macro' trends for the coming decade, here's a dedicated Trend Briefing focus-
ing on just one of the implications of rampant urbanization: the rise of the CITYSUMER. A definition:
CITYSUMERS | The hundreds of millions (and growing!) of experienced and sophisticated urbanites*,
from San Francisco to Shanghai to São Paulo, who are ever more demanding, more open-minded, but
also more proud, more connected, more spontaneous and more try-out-prone, eagerly snapping up a
whole host of new urban goods, services, experiences, campaigns and conversations.
* To be absolutely clear, in this briefing we focus on urban consumers who have some level of disposable
income. We'll save a full briefing to examine BOTTOM OF THE URBAN PYRAMID consumption in
emerging markets, which brings its own challenges (and often-overlooked opportunities) for businesses.
Equally we're certainly not just referring here to the somewhat mythical (and certainly over-hyped) tran-
snational elite – just how many “global nomads” are there? ;-)
Here are just three drivers behind the CITYSUMERS trend:
1. The huge increase in the number of urban dwellers all around the world (URBAN BOOM).
2. The ever-increasing wealth and power of cities and those who live in them (URBAN MIGHT).
3. The spread of urban culture and values (URBANE).
Serving these CITYSUMERS obviously requires brands to tailor products and campaigns to savvy urban
audiences, for anything from practical reasons (offering appropriate shapes, sizes and features of urban
goods and services) to showing the brand 'gets' it (addressing busy and diverse lifestyles) to contributing
to the quest for social and environmental sustainability.
You are reading a PDF version of “CITYSUMERS” (www.trendwatching.com/trends/citysumers/)
• If it wasn't for China (43%), Africa (33%) and India Just 100 cities account for 30% of the world's economy, and
(29%), the world would already be significantly more almost all its innovation. Many of these engines of globalization,
urbanized than the 50.5% it is today. (Source: CIA The their enduring vibrancy coming from money, knowledge, and sta-
World Factbook, 2010.) And China, Africa and India are bility, are world capitals that have evolved and adapted through
all set for immense urbanization in the next few decades decades if not centuries of dominance (Source: Foreign Policy,
to come. August 2010).
• Close to 180,000 people move into cities daily, adding Rich in networks and opportunities, these vast hyper-productive,
roughly 60 million new urban dwellers each year. hyper-consumptive centers act as magnets, sucking in talent and
(Source: Intuit, October 2010.) spewing out innovation: Hong Kong receives more tourists annu-
• By 2050, the global urban population is expected to be ally than all of India. Tokyo and New York have an estimated GDP
6.3 billion, or 70% of the population at that time. similar to those of Canada or Spain, while London's GDP is
(Source: UN, 2009.) higher than that of Sweden or Switzerland. (Source: UN Habitat,
2010). Paris, Lisbon, Brussels, Budapest and Seoul all account
• By 2030, China will have an urban population of 1 billion, for more than 25% of their respective national economies.
and India 590 million. Currently, Europe's urban popula- (Source: UN Habitat, 2010).
tion is 533 million. (Source: McKinsey forecast & UN
data, 2009-10.) In the coming decades, they will be joined by many new and/or
bigger cities, and these cities, too will be host to an increasing
• By 2030, China will have 221 cities with more than 1 concentration of global and national wealth, talent and creativity:
million people, and India will have 68. In 2010, Europe
has 35. During this period, 400 million Chinese and 215 • Indian cities are forecast to generate 70% of new jobs
million Indian will move to urban areas, more than the created to 2030, produce more than 70% of Indian GDP,
population of the US and Brazil combined. (Source: For- and drive a near fourfold increase in per capita incomes
eign Policy, August 2010.) across the nation. By 2030, India will have 91 million
urban, middle class households, up from 22 million in
• One more nugget: In January 2011, Chinese city plan- 2010. (Source: McKinsey Global Institute, April 2010.)
ners proposed merging the nine cities around the Pearl
River Delta into a single metropolitan area, containing • China's Academy of Sciences estimated that for every
some 42 million people: more than Argentina, and cover- 1% increase in urbanization, China can expect a 1.6%
ing an area 26 times bigger than Greater London. increase in the contribution made by domestic demand
(Source: Reuters, January 2011.) to China's GDP. (Source: Deloitte, June 2010.)
The big difference between tomorrow's urban world and today's? • Shanghai's economy represents over 13% of China's
There will be more cities, some of which will be both newer total GDP, despite having less than 2% of the popula-
and bigger than ever. So while 'traditional' global powerhouses tion. (Source: UN Habitat, 2010.)
such as New York, London and Paris are already sharing the • The number of African households with discretionary
stage with Beijing, Mumbai and Istanbul, increasingly cities such income is projected to rise by 50 percent over the next
as Belem, Chongqing and Guadalajara are ready to make their 10 years, reaching 128 million. By 2030, the continents'
mark, too. More on this in 'URBAN MIGHT': top 18 cities could have a combined spending power of
USD 1.3 trillion. (Source: McKinsey, June 2010.)