Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Retirement “System”
The EBRI/Salisbury 2009 Update.
Work Forever, Retire Sick, or Retire Well ? It
Has Always Been In Most Individuals Hands !
Dallas L. Salisbury
President & CEO
Employee Benefit Research Institute
salisbury@ebri.org
Chairman,
American Savings Education Council
choosetosave.org
4
High Turnover Workforce: Male Prime-Age (25-64)
Workers Median Tenure Trends, By Age, 1951-2006
18 Ages 25-34
Ages 35-44
15.3
16 14.6 Ages 45-54
14.7 14.5 14.5
14 13.0
13.4 Ages 55-64
12 11.2
Years of Tenure
12.8 10.5
11.8 10.2 10.2
11.4 11.5 9.8 9.5
9.3 11.0 11.2
10
10.1
8.8 9.4 9.5 9.1 9.6
8
8.1
7.6 7.6 7.3 7.0
6.9
6 6.7 6.5
6.0 6.1
5.5 5.3 5.0 5.2
4 5.1
4.5
3.5 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0
2 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.9
0
1951 1963 1966 1973 1978 1983 1987 1991 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
Source: Data (for 1951, 1963, 1966, 1973, and 1978) from the Monthly Labor Review (September 1952, October 1963, January
1967, December 1974, and December 1979); from press releases (for 1983, 1987, 1991, 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002) from the U.S. 5
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and from Employee Benefit Research Institute estimates of the January 2004 and
2006 Current Population Survey.
© Employee Benefit Research Institute 2009
Low Full Career Workforce: Percentage of Private Wage and
Salary Workers Ages 45-64 Who Had 25 or More Years of
Tenure, by Age -Private Sector, 2004-2006
26%
24%
22%
20%
18%
16.1%
16%
15.1%
15.4% 15.2%
14%
12%
10%
10.0%
9.5%
8%
2004 2006
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Employee Tenure," and 6
Employee Benefit Research Institute estimates from the January 2004 and 2006 Current
Population Surveys.
© Employee Benefit Research Institute 2009
30 years of DC growth and 20 years of DB decline
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Total Lowest Quintile 2nd Quintile 3rd Quintile 4th Quintile Highest Quintile Private Public
Source: EBRI Databook, EBRI estimates from the Current Population Survey March Supplements.
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
All 65–69 70–74 75–79 80 or older Male Female Less than high Postgraduate
school diploma degree
Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute estimates of the 1996, 2001, and 2004 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) Topical Module 7.
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
All 65–69 70–74 75–79 80 or older Male Fem ale Less than high Postgraduate
school diplom a degree
Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute estimates of the 1996, 2001, and 2004 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) Topical Module 7.
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
All Less than 10 100 or m ore Private Public Less than 5 20 or m ore $10,000–$19,999 $50,000 or m ore
Em ployees em ployees years of Tenure years of tenure in earnings in earings
2003 2006
Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute estimates of the 2001 and 2004 Survey of Income and Program Participation Topical Module 7.
$16,000
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
All Less than 10 100 or m ore Private Public Less than 5 20 or m ore $10,000–$19,999 $50,000 or
Em ployees em ployees years of years of tenure in earnings m ore in
Tenure earings
2003 2006
Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute estimates of the 2001 and 2004 Survey of Income and Program Participation Topical Module 7.
All dollar figures in 2006 dollars.
2.50%
Reduction in nominal
replacement rates
2.00%
1.50%
male
1.00% female
0.50%
0.00%
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Age cohort (min age specified)
9%
8%
Reduction in nominal
replacement rates
7%
6%
5% median
4% mean
3%
2%
1%
0%
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Age cohort (min age specified)
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Age cohort (min age specified)
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Age cohort (min age specified)
154 Companies
3.9 million workers
88 percent of workers employers have DB plans — open or
frozen — that must be funded
12 percent of workers at firms with no open or frozen DB plans
What can we learn from the last time employer’s suspended matches?
140%
120%
average 100%
change
versus 2002 80%
relative to
full 60%
consistent
sample 40%
20%
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006
percentage 250%
of 2002
contributors 200%
not
contributing
in current
150%
year relative
to full 100%
consistent
sample 50%
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006
10
8
Post-PPA 401(k) AE wo escalation
6
accumulations as Voluntary
a multiple of final 4 AE w escalation
earnings
2
0
Low 2 3 High
Salary quartile
Source: VanDerhei and Copeland, “The Impact of PPA on Retirement Savings for 401(k)
Participants”, EBRI Issue Brief, June 2008
Replacement rate
100% 100%
89% (1999)
80% 80%
100% stocks
60% 60%
40% 40%
27% (2008)
20% 20%
0% 0%
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: Gary Burtless, Brookings Institution © Employee Benefit Research Institute 2009
Replacement rate obtained from personal retirement account of
worker who contributes 4% of his annual salary over a 40-year career
Replacement rate
100% 100%
80% 80%
100% stocks
60% 60%
Source: Gary Burtless, Brookings Institution © Employee Benefit Research Institute 2009
Dec. 31 Asset Allocation Distribution for 401(k) Participant
Account
Figure 5. Dec. 31stBalances
Asset Allocation to “Equity,”
Distribution by Age:
of 401(k) Participant Account2006,
Balances to2007,
“Equity,” by 2008
Age: 2006, 2007 and 2008
“Equity” is defined as equity funds + company stock + the relevant portion of balanced and target date funds
60%
50%
40%
30%
0.7-0.8
20%
0.8-0.9
>0.9
10%
0%
up to 35 up to 35 up to 35 36-45 36-45 36-45 46-55 46-55 46-55 56-65 56-65 56-65
2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008
Sources:
2006: Tabulations from year-end 2006 data from EBRI/ICI Participant-Directed Retirement Plan Data Collection Project. The analysis is based on active participants w ith account
balances at the end of 2006.
2007: Tabulations from year-end 2007 data from EBRI/ICI Participant-Directed Retirement Plan Data Collection Project. The analysis is based on active participants w ith account
balances at the end of 2007.
2008: Author's projections based on year-end 2007 data from EBRI/ICI Participant-Directed Retirement Plan Data Collection Project. Methodology is explained in the paper.
Source: VanDerhei, “The Impact of the Recent Financial Crisis on 401(k) Account Balances” EBRI
Issue Brief, February 2009
The "excess" is calculated by comparing the projected account balances generated by target date funds to actual account balances
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
21-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 21-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 21-35 36-45 46-55 56-65
average average average average most most most most most most most most
Notes: aggressive aggressive aggressive aggressive conservative conservative conservative conservative
1. All asset allocations for target date funds are based on 2007 data.
2. Due to inconsistencies in plan loan data provision, there is a slight negative bias to the computed value of the "excess" returns. This w ill be quantified at a later stage.
Source: Author's calculations based on consistent sample data from the EBRI/ICI Participant-Directed Retirement Plan Data Collection Project.
Source: VanDerhei, “Frozen Pensions and Falling Stocks: What Will Happen to
Retirees' Incomes?” Urban Institute, February 3, 2009
© Employee Benefit Research Institute 2009
Equity Allocation of 10 Target-Date Fund Families, by Year
of Target Date Fund, End of Year 2007
95%
85%
75%
65%
55%
A B C D E
45%
35% F G H I J
25%
15%
Retirement 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Income
Source: Asset allocations of the target date funds as reported by Target Data Analytics from Morningstar Principia.
Retirement Income would also represent Target Income, Target Today, Target Now, and other similar names used by Target Date Funds.
26
80% All
Autoenrollees 79.4%
70% Nonautoenrollees
60%
54.9% 52.1%
50.0%
47.3% 46.3% 47.3% 47.2% 46.6%
50%
50.8% 44.0%
48.4% 39.9%
47.4%
40% 44.8%
44.8% 44.1% 43.8% 42.1% 34.0%
40.5%
36.0%
30%
29.9%
20%
1-10 11-25 26 - 50 51 - 100 101 - 250 251 - 500 501 - 1,001 - 2,501 - 5,001 - > 10,000
1,000 2,500 5,000 10,000
Source: EBRI tabulations from the EBRI/ICI Participant-Directed Retirement Plan Data Collection Project.
27
90%
90.3%
80%
79.8% 81.1%
67.3% 77.7% 77.9% 79.2% 79.1% 79.0%
70%
60%
62.7% All
50% Autoenrollees
41.5%
Nonautoenrollees
40%
32.7%
39.4%
30% 26.3%
31.6% 22.1%
25.7% 19.1% 15.6%
20% 11.2%
21.7%
18.8% 15.4% 11.1%
10%
<$5,000 $5,000- $10,000- $20,000- $40,000- $60,000- $100,000- $200,000 or
$9,999 $19,999 $39,999 $59,999 $99,999 $199,999 more
Source: EBRI tabulations from the EBRI/ICI Participant-Directed Retirement Plan Data Collection Project.
28
500%
Tenure
(in years)
400%
6–10
300% 11–20
21–30
200%
100%
0%
up to 35 36–45 46–55 56–65
Age
Sources: 1999 and 2006 Account Balances: Tabulations from EBRI/ICI Participant-Directed Retirement Plan Data
Collection Project; 2007 and 2008 Account Balances: EBRI estimates. The analysis is based on a consistent sample30
of 2.2 million participants with account balances at the end of each year from 1999 through 2006.
© Employee Benefit Research Institute 2009
Change In Average Account Balances From Jan. 1, 2008 (S&P
1418) – Jan. 20, 2009 (S&P 805), Among 401(k) Participants
with Account Balances as of Dec. 31, 2007
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
< $10,000 $50,000–$100,000 > $200,000
Account Balance
Sources: 2007 Account Balances: Tabulations from EBRI/ICI Participant-Directed Retirement Plan Data
Collection Project; 2008 and 2009 Account Balances: EBRI estimates. The analysis is based on all participants
31
with account balances at the end of 2007 and contribution information for that year.
© Employee Benefit Research Institute 2009
Tenure Matters a Great Deal in Account Growth and Decline
Short Term Account Movement
Change In Average Account Balances From Jan. 1, 2008 – Jan. 20, 2009,
Among 401(k) Participants with Account Balances as of Dec. 31, 2007
30%
20%
10% 1-4
5-9
0% 10-19
20-29
-10% 30 or more
-20%
-30%
25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64
Age
Sources: 2007 Account Balances: Tabulations from EBRI/ICI Participant-Directed Retirement Plan Data Collection
Project; 2008 and 2009 Account Balances: EBRI estimates. The analysis is based on all participants with account 32
balances at the end of 2007 and contribution information for that year.
© Employee Benefit Research Institute 2009
Change In Average Account Balances From January 1,
2008 – May 5, 2009 Among 401(k) Participants with
Account Balances as of Dec. 31, 2007
50%
40%
Job Tenure
30% (in years)
20%
1-4
10% 5-9
10-19
0% 20-29
-10%
-20%
25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64
Age
Sources: 2007 Account Balances: Tabulations from EBRI/ICI Participant-Directed Retirement Plan Data Collection
Project; 2008 and 2009 Account Balances: EBRI estimates. The analysis is based on all participants with account
balances at the end of 2007 and contribution information for that year.
Time Needed to Recover from 2008 401(k) Losses, Using Various
Figure 4. Time Needed to Recover From 2008 401(k) Losses, Using Various Equity Return Assumptions
Equity Return Assumptions
72.3 years
20
18
16
14
12
Tenure
Y e ars
1–4
10
5–9
8
10–19
6
20–29
4
median 70th median 70th median 70th median 70th median 70th
percentile percentile percentile percentile percentile
Equit y r et ur n a nd pe r ce nt il e dist r ibut ion
Source: Author's calculations based on year-end 2007 data from the EBRI/ICI Participant-Directed Retirement Plan Data Collection Project.
NB: Losses are defined as the difference betw een year-end 2007 and 2008 account balances. This is NOT limited to investment loss.
34
40%
35%
74%
61% 59%
50% 49%
12% 10% 10% 14% 12% 16% 12% 13% 12% 14%
17% 13% 14%
18% 15% 14% 12% 15% 16% 16%
1993 1996 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Feelings of Financial Mastery and Belief in Equities as
Long Term Investments Have Taken a Hit
Please tell me how well each of the following statements describes you? (2009 Workers n=1,001)
0%
1998 N/A
Over the long run, I 28% 40% 68%
2000
believe stocks in
general will be a very
2002 22% 38% 61%
good investment.
2009 17% 31% 48%
Interest in Financial Planning Has Declined as the Need
Has Increased
Please tell me how well each of the following statements describes you? (2009 Workers n=1,001)
19980%N/A
89%
79%
75%
32%
28%
18% 25%
18%
9%
31%
30% 31%
28%
25%
24% 24%
23%
22%
21% 21%
17%
16%
11% 11%
9% 10%
6% 6%
1%
51%
48% 47%
45% 45%
39% 39% 40% 38%
37% 37%
1996 1998 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
People Retire Early for a Variety of Reasons, Many
Beyond Their Control
Did you retire earlier than you planned because…? (2009 Retirees retiring earlier than planned
n=121) (Percentage saying yes)
NA
You wanted to do something else
23%
10%
You had another work-related reason
22%
Workers Retirees
70% 72%
68% 66% 67% 66%
63% 63%
56%
37%
32% 34%
28% 26% 27% 25%
22% 22%
53%
48% 47%
43% 42% 43% 44%
42% 42%
51%
45%
37%
32%
1993 1999 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
The Plurality Guess at How Much They Will Need
How did you (or your spouse) determine this amount? Did you…? (Workers who gave amount
needed for retirement n=871)
Guess 44%
30%
28%
23%
19%
17% 15%
15% 14%
11%
8% 8% 8%
54