Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Variable
Consider the following consumer-sampling situation. Draw a
random sample of n = 5 consumers from a very large number
–say, 10,000– and record the number x of consumers who favor
toothpaste brand A. Suppose 2,000 of the consumers actually
prefer brand A. Replace the five consumers in the population and
randomly draw a new sample of n = 5 consumers. Record the
value of x again. Repeat this process over and over again 100,000
times.
100,000 1 1
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0.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 |
0.8 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 |
0.8 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.8 |
0.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.8 In five ways.
0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 |
2
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 |
0.2 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.8 |
0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 |
0.2 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.8 |
0.2 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.2 |
0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.2 |
0.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 |
0.8 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.2 |
0.8 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.2 In ten ways.
0.8 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 |
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p(x) Cumulative
p(x)
0.3277 0.3277
0.4096 0.7373
0.2048 0.9421
0.0512 0.9933
0.0064 0.9997
0.0003 1
n = 5, p = 0.2
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x 0.25 Cumulative
0 0.0032 0.0032
1 0.0211 0.0243
2 0.0669 0.0912
3 0.1339 0.2251
4 0.1897 0.4148
5 0.2023 0.6171
6 0.1686 0.7857
7 0.1124 0.8981
8 0.0609 0.9590
9 0.0271 0.9861
10 0.0099 0.9960
11 0.0030 0.9990
12 0.0008 0.9998
13 0.0002 1
14 0 1
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The standard deviation s of a random variable x is equal to the
positive square root of the variance.
a) Find the value for m –i.e., the expected value– for the
distribution:
x p(x) xp(x)
0 0.3277 0
1 0.4096 0.4096
2 0.2048 0.4096
3 0.0512 0.1536
4 0.0064 0.0256
5 0.00032 0.0016
sum[xp(x)] = 1
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c) Find the standard deviation of x:
x p(x) xp(x) (x - )^2 * p(x)
0 0.3277 0 1 0.3277
1 0.4096 0.4096 0 0
2 0.2048 0.4096 1 0.2048
3 0.0512 0.1536 4 0.2048
4 0.0064 0.0256 9 0.0576
5 0.00032 0.0016 16 0.00512
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INTERVAL. DEATHS
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a) Use the accompanying life table (above) to determine the
insurance company's expected payout on this policy
0.04838519
$4,838.519
0.116666478
$11,666.65
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Combinations and Permutations
n Pn = n!
nCr = n! / r! (n – r)!
120
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Example: A local company has been in trouble recently over
hiring male applicants rather than female
applicants. The last three employees hired were all male, even
though the six applicants for the three positions included three
females.
Is this process rigged?
P(A) =
# of ways to hire three males
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Should 0.05 be viewed as a very small probability?
Listing the entire sample space is a bit tedious! For example, if
there are 12 applicants –five male and seven female– now, what is
the probability that all three positions go to men if the selection
process is fair?
P(A) = 5C3 / 12C3 = [5! / 3!2!] / [12! / 3!9!] =
=((120/(6*2)) / ((479001600 / (6*362880)) = 0.045455
=(FACT(x))
b) Using Table 7 (p. A-20), find the probability that only two
cars will arrive during a specified one-minute period.
P(X = 2) = 0.0446
c) Using Table 7 (p. A-20), find the probability that at least four
cars will arrive during a specified one-minute period.
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P(X ³ 4) = 1 - P(X £ 3) =
1 – (0.0025+0.0149+0.0446+0.0892) = 1 – 0.1512 = 0.8488
CASE: Assume that you are responsible for scheduling
airplane crews for the many different airports
that your company serves. FAA regulations as well as unions are
very strict in enforcing the proper crew size. Knowing that crew
members from time to time get sick, are delayed flying in to the
hub, etc., you need to keep a few extras around at Hub X. You
don't want to keep too many, because of the cost, but you are not
willing to take more than a 2% risk of being short-staffed. Past
history tells you that the average number of "absent" crew
members per day is 3. Assume that the Poisson process applies.
How many standby crew members should you keep on duty?
m=3
not willing to take more than a 2% risk of being short-staffed:
Cumulate backwards from the "decumulated" probability vector
until you reach/surpass 0.02 (the risk you are willing to take)
m=3 k Probability Cumulative
0 0.0498
1 0.1494
2 0.2240
3 0.2240
4 0.1680
5 0.1008
6 0.0504
7 0.0216 0.0335
8 0.0081 0.0119
9 0.0027 0.0038
10 0.0008 0.0011
11 0.0002 0.0003
12 0.0001 0.0001
Should we keep 7 or 8 crew members on standby?
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7: If seven are absent and we have 7 on standby, we are
not short! If 8 are absent we are, but p = 0.0119
< 0.02
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