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OBJECTIVE OF STUDY
To find the possible aspect of infrastructure which contribute in India
economy. The study should be useful for future economic analysis
Literature reviews
infrastructure play
Does
role in urbanization:
evidence from India.
Abstract
The paper primarily focuses the role played by infrastructure in determining the level of
urbanization in India and across its states. The analysis is based on construction of composite
infrastructure development index by applying principal component analysis and then integrates
the same with degree of urbanization. We have used cross-sectional data of Indian economy and
it pertains to past quarter decades. The findings confirmed that infrastructure has a significant
role in determining the level of urbanization in India. It finally concludes with suggestion that
India needs a broad based policy to increase the level of infrastructure in the interest of
urbanization in particular and overall balanced development in general.
I. INTRODUCTION
One way to maintain the balance development in the economy is to keep stress on 'urbanization'.
Urbanization transfers resources from rural, which ate in the form of miss utilized, under utilized
and unutilized, to urban centres and simultaneously, brings resources, through rural-urban
linkage, to the rural economy for its development. It is considerably true that urbanization
becomes the key for reconstructing the entire economy, as it changes the sectoral composition of
output, income and employment. Its progress more or less depends upon the advancement of
urban economy, which rides on the expansion of industrialization in the country. But
industrialization or the level of industrial development relies on the accessibility of resource
base, level of technology, explicit and implicit government intervention and the availability of
infrastructure in the economy (Henderson, 1999; Lee, 1988). Keeping in above back drop,
present paper here explores the relationship between infrastructure and urbanization in the Indian
economy.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows: Section II discusses the concept and importance of
infrastructure. Section III describes the concept and importance of urbanization. Section IV
highlights the methodology and data descriptions. Section V finally concludes with policy
implications thereof.
The importance of infrastructure for economic development could hardly be gainsaid, as the
superstructure of a nation's overall wealth hinges on it (Ferrerira and Issler, 1995; Holtz-Eakin
and Schwartz, 1995; Day and Zou, 1994; Easterly, 1993). It usually defines as underlying basic
buildings, institutions and facilities or other essential elements that are necessary to sustain and
enable economic growth in the economy (Sanchez-Robles, 1998; Canning et al., 1994). In other
words, infrastructure represents as broad spectrum of activities and services without which no
activity can be undertaken in the economy. It plays a key role in our society and constitutes the
wheels, if not the engine of development (Prakash, 2005). Infrastructure increases economic
productivity, gains degree of specialization (Bougheas et al., 1999; Henderson, 1988), lowers
production costs (Romer, 1987), improves quality of life, alleviates poverty (World Bank, 1997),
raises international competitiveness, attracts foreign investment and helpful in urbanizing the
economy (Henderson, 2002). In fact, the pay-off from better infrastructure services goes beyond
reducing technical inefficiencies and financial losses (Barro, 1990). An adequate quantity,
quality and reliability of infrastructure are thus important preconditions for overall economic
growth. Infrastructure's linkage to the economy is very multiple and complex, as it affects
production and consumption directly, creates positive and negative spillover effects and involves
large inflows of expenditure (Goel, 2002). Infrastructure investment generally works through
employment multiplier, income multiplier and investment multiplier.
In the developing countries, it considers as a pace setter of economic growth and one of the most
important determinants for economic development. It affects economic development through
demand side and supply side. On the demand side, it opens up the possibilities of investment by
making availability of necessary inputs and services, opening up the size of the market and
increasing the supply elasticity and efficiency of factors of production. On the contrary, supply
side gives emphasis on development of infrastructure that helps in mobilizing potential saving
and hence, translating them into productive investment (Demetriades and Mamuneas, 2000). It
may be truly said that economic infrastructure certainly provides infrastructure to the economy
on which the superstructure of economic activities can be built-up.
The World Bank (1994) focused that infrastructural development has a strong positive link with
level of GDP and infrastructure stock per capita. As we have mentioned earlier, infrastructure
itself consists of different sectors and some of these sectors have direct impact on the workings
of business enterprises and others ate important for the societal point of view. Therefore, it needs
to be developed on a concurrent basis. The relationship between infrastructure and economic
development may be analyzed by focusing on its impact on the basic determinants of
development particularly through its link with capital formation and technological change. The
close link of factors, which determining the supply of capital with various items of infrastructure,
is quite obvious especially in the case of financial institutions. They are necessary both for
mobilizing savings and providing capital for agriculture & industrial development. The most
significant contributions of infrastructure towards economic development are its impact on the
availability and supply elasticity of factors of production, size of the market and the level of
urbanization in the economy (Pradhan 2005).
Over and above, infrastructure continues to be a serious constraint on country's economic growth
potential (GOI, 1999-2000) and is a vital for accelerating economic development in the economy
(Raghuram et al., 1999; Kapila and Kapila, 2002). History suggests that any country or regions,
which have industrialized and urbanized rapidly had infrastructure developed first. In the
subsequent section, we consequently establish the linkage between infrastructure and
urbanization in the economy.
III. URBANIZATION: CONCEPT AND IMPORTANCE
Urbanization defines as a process, when a nation can go in their transition from agrarian to
industrial society (Rao et al. 2004; Davis, 1972). In other words, it delimitates as a process of
massive shifts of labour and capital from predominantly rural to urban areas/ activities. It is an
index of modernization and largely associated with economic growth and development (Prakash,
2005). Urbanization is a natural part of development and substantially helpful for poverty
alleviation in the rural areas (Fan et al., 2005). Different levels of urbanization, however, reflect
different degrees of modernization and development in the economy (Prasad, 1995). It is a multi-
dimensional process and to a large extent, it depends upon the incentives for industrial and
service sector development. Supporting to this, Mills and Becker (1986) pointed out that
"urbanization is an inevitable process that experienced by all nations in their transaction from
agrarian to industrial and service societies and is a necessary factor behind the economic
growth". Capital accumulation, technological change and the growth of socio-economic
infrastructure seem to be the most important determinants of this shift (Kundu, 2004).
It is true that in a growing economy there is mounting demand of industrial and service sector
products. Accordingly, there is spontaneous increase in industrial and service sector production
and hence, employment generation in the economy. This also follows increase of service
facilities for various purposes like distribution of increased output, financial management
through banking and financial institutes as well as civic services for the population experiencing
increase in income levels (GOI, 2003). Economic development, therefore, foretells
industrialization and that promotes the concentration of people in the urban areas, where
maximum attempt is made to economize the land inputs (i.e. the land requirement per unit of
output being less than the agricultural sector). In the modern world, problem of large urban
concentrations affects not only in the advanced countries but also all the areas with dense
population and so in large cities. In a mature system of cities, standardized manufacturing
production trends to be de-concentrated into smaller and medium size metropolitan areas (Hicks,
1974). But the production in large metropolitan areas focuses on services, research and
development (R & D) and new products (Jacobs, 1969). The problem in today's developing
countries is that they appear to be strong bias towards excessive concentration (Visaria, 1997).
As you know there is striking difference between more developed and less developed countries
in the globe with regards to the pattern of urbanization. While most of the population of the less
developed regions currently lives in rural areas, the bulk of the population of the more developed
regions resides in urban areas. But developing countries today face greater urbanization
challenges than developed countries faced. It is observed that the growth rate of urban population
is much higher in less developed countries in contrast to more developed countries (UNDP,
2001). Coming to India, it becomes the second largest country in the world in terms of maximum
urban population. Her size of urban population exceeds even the total population of each country
in the world except China. It is observed that India's urban population has been increasing trends
since 1901. India had only 10.8% of urban population in the beginning of nineteenth century and
substantially increased to 27.8% in the turn of the century (See Table 1).
This is about two and a half times increase during the last 100 years. In the state-wise, rate of
urbanization is substantially high in Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Andhra
Pradesh, Kerala, Punjab and West Bengal and substantially low in Himachal Pradesh, Assam,
Bihar, Orissa and Uttar Pradesh. This represents that there exists large-scale variations across the
states and its progress is substantially high in southern states in contrast to other parts of the
country (See Figure 1).
[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]
The rate of urbanization is relatively high in more urbanized states in contrast to less urbanized
states (Mohan, 1996). The above features are very natural for developing countries like India.
This is because earlier studies suggest that urban concentration increases in the early stages of
economic development as part of increasing regional disparities and then decreases in later
stages of development as part of decreasing regional disparities or regional convergence (El-
Shakhs, 1992; Parr, 1985; Wheaton and Shishido, 1981; Williamson, 1965). It further suggests
that in the early stages of development when resources are scarce (especially infrastructure) it is
impossible to investment enough in public infrastructure to support widespread urban
agglomeration and a system of interconnected cities joined by paved highways rail transit and
communication (Hansen, 1990). An efficient allocation of economic infrastructure requires
concentration in just one or two cities initially, conserving on spending that would go instead to
link cities or develop other cities. Such concentrated investment induces immigration and
industrialization of local cities and increase urban concentration. With supplementary economic
growth, the country will develop some appropriate institutions and a pool of skilled technocrats.
The country ultimately will be able to invest in hinterland regions, allowing other major urban
centres as well as smaller and medium-size cities to develop (Henderson, 2002). It is believed
that the demographic trends of Indian urbanization are largely accompanied by change in the
management and financing of urban development (Becker et al., 1992), which is as a result of
substantial progress in industrialization, globalization and an improvement in infrastructure in
the economy. But here we highlight the issue of infrastructure only.
The basic objective of this paper is to establish the linkage between infrastructure and
urbanization in the economy. To analyze the same, we have developed an econometric model,
which is as follows:
CIDI = Composite Infrastructure Development Index, which is an average of physical, social and
financial infrastructure.
PIDI = Physical Infrastructure Development Index, which is set of physical infrastructure like
transport facility (road and railways), gross irrigated area, per capita consumption of electricity
and telecommunication.
SIDI = Social Infrastructure Development Index, which is set of social infrastructure such as
literacy rate, infant mortality rate and residential houses.
FIDI = Financial Infrastructure Development Index, which is set of financial infrastructure viz.
credit deposit ratio of nationalized banks, share of state tax revenue in NSDP and post offices.
For deriving each dimension index, one requires appropriate weights for the facilities under each
category. For this, we apply well-known multivariate principal component analysis (PCA). The
method of PCA is a special case of more general method of factor analysis. Its aim is to
construct, out of set of variables, [X.sub.i]'s (I= 1, 2 ..., n), a new set of variables ([P.sub.i])
called principal components, which are linear combination of the X's (Hotelling, 1933;
Koutsoyiannis, 1978). In mathematical, it could be represented as follows:
...
Putting it in matrix form, the above expressions can be further expressed as:
Where, [a.sub.ij]'s are called loadings of the factors (principal component). These are chosen in
such a way that the constructed principal components satisfy two conditions: (a) the principal
components are uncorrelated and (b) the first principal component [P.sub.1] absorbs and
accounts for the maximum possible proportion of the total variation in the set X's, the second
principal component absorbs the maximum of the remaining variation in the X's (after allowing
for the variation accounted for by the first principal component) and so on. In this procedure, the
data matrix is transformed to a new set of uncorrelated variables (principal components) that
accounts as much of the variation as possible in descending order. The method of PCA can be
applied by using the original variables or the standardized variables. By applying standardized
methods, the above expression can be additionally represented as:
The present study worked out the composite index by the help of standardized method only, as
this process involves unit free measurement. The study further applies first principal component
analysis to capture the maximum proportion of the variance in the original variables. The data
used under the study are secondary in nature and have been collected from following sources:
Economic Survey, Government of India; Statistical Abstract of India, Government of India;
Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE); and India Infrastructure Database (Ghosh and
De, 2004b). The model estimation follows India's state-wise data of four cross-sectional years
viz. 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001.
The study initially presumed that increase in the availability of infrastructure would increase the
level of urbanization in the economy. To establish the same, we first developed a composite
infrastructure development index (CIDI) and then integrate the same with urbanization.
The composite index further reflects that India's quantum of infrastructure has been significantly
improved over the years and that's visible in most of the states (See Figure 2). Now by
comparing the state-wise picture of infrastructural development index with the degree of
urbanization, it is observed that both are consistently moving in the upward direction. This
reflects that the progress of infrastructure certainly determine the level of urbanization in India
and across its states.
[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]
Coming to empirical investigation, we applied regression technique. It is followed with linear
functional form and succeeded by Ordinary Least Squares method. The econometric estimated
results are presented in Table 3. The results confirmed that infrastructure, which is the set of
physical, social and financial, contributed significantly to urbanization in India. Put it differently,
it indicates that increase in infrastructure do exert a strong upward pressure on Indian
urbanization. The estimated coefficients contemplates that a one percent increase infrastructure
leads to increase of urbanization by 2.27 units in 1971, 3.54 units in 1981, 4.54 units in 1991 and
5.16 units in 2001. If you observe these units of increment, one can find that the contribution of
infrastructure towards urbanization has been substantially increasing since 1971. The value of t-
statistics intends that infrastructure and urbanization are statistically significant at 1% level in all
the four cross-sectional years.
The coefficient of determination ([R.sup.2]) further indicates that about 27% of the systematic
variations in the level of urbanization during the year 1971 have been explained by the
availability of infrastructure in the economy. And that variation has been radically improved over
the years since 1971. While [R.sup.2] is 41% in 1981, it has increased to 55% in 1991 and 55%
in 2001. The improvement of [R.sup.2] indicates that the casual link between infrastructure and
urbanization in India has been stronger over the years. The value of [R.sup.2] is also statistically
significant during all the four years. We have also studied that the relation between infrastructure
and urbanization by pooling the data of four cross-sectional years. The estimated results also
confirmed the positive association between infrastructure and urbanization (See Table 3). Here,
the [R.sup.2] ensured that about 47% of systematic variations in the level of urbanization have
explained by the availability of infrastructure in India.
The study investigated the impact of infrastructure on urbanization in India. By using the state-
wise data of past quarter decades, the estimated results confirmed that infrastructure has a
significant positive impact on urbanization. Both are very consistent in the Indian economy over
the last four decades. It is assumed that without increase of infrastructure, urbanization in India
would be much lower today. But the critics say that at what level of urbanization India has
achieved so far, it is comparatively low as per the country's need and in contrast to other
emerging countries in the world. Since urbanization has a very positive role in rural economy in
the form of agricultural development, non-farm development and poverty alleviation, there is
urgent need to enhance the country's level of urbanization. This requires substantial improvement
in infrastructure along with more industrialization in the economy. Though industrialization of
industrial development plays a major role in urbanization, to set the industrial sector in a right
way, infrastructure needs to be set right first. In fact, infrastructure plays a pivot role, as it
directly enhances urbanization and indirectly through industrialization. A specific stress must be
given towards qualitative infrastructure like good roads, railways, ports, airports, etc. so that they
can oil our wheels of progress. This requires a continued government support in the form of
appropriate pricing policies, legal and administrative framework, decentralization of public
expenditure and encouraging capital markets for resource mobilization in the infrastructural
investment. Since public sector alone cannot deliver all that is required in the every area of
infrastructure, the country required public-private partnership at the urgent. To summarize, there
is need of broad based policy to increase the availability of infrastructure in India and across its
states in the interest of mounting urbanization in particular and overall balanced development in
general.
World Bank (1994), World Development Report: Infrastructure for Development, Oxford
University Press, New York.
World Bank (1997), "Investing in Infrastructure: A Growth Strategy That Favours the Poor",
http://hco.worldbank.org/html/hcovp/poverty/contents.html.
Table 1
Trends of Urbanization in India
Table 2
State-wise Trends of Urbanization and Infrastructure
Development In India
Urban
CIDI
Table 3
Estimated Results of Urbanization
Urban
CIDI
Table 3
Estimated Results of Urbanization
India is a land of diverse culture as well as religion. In different parts of India, one can find
totally different tradition and cultural variations. To promote national integration and concentrate
the cultural diversity, the Indian Railways plays a vital role that also fulfills the transportation
needs of the country. It is true that, with this support, Indian Railways have also emerged as the
major strength of the Indian economy.
Not only passengers, everyday, Indian Railways carry more than a million ton of freight traffic
encompassing around 6,856 numbers of rail stations. Being the primary infrastructural sector of
India, Railways has been developing to maintain a pace with the development of Indian
economy.
Though the huge investment required for the overall development of the Indian Railway system
has not been fully sanctioned but due to the budgetary support it is planning to develop its
infrastructural aspects.
Further, a quantum jump in the freight transportation business is another important fact of the
year that is worth mentioning about. This is how Indian Railways impact the Economy.
Following are various stats, facts and figures on the economy and employment in India , picked out of newspapers
(mainly Hindustan Times), magazines (mainly India Today), the BBC and various sources on the web. These figures
are not meant to be comprehensive lists, but rather statistical trivia or factual snippets. For basic general facts and
figures about India as well as several Indian states, please see the Quick Reference popups on the right hand side of
this page, or go to the main page of India statistics, facts and figures . For a full list of links to our statistics pages,
see the About India index or the bottom of the right navigation bar on this page.
"It is better to have newer cities than to expand," said Utpal Sharma, dean of planning & public policy
faculty at CEPT. Sharma is leading a team of architects in laying out a plan for the Hyderabad
Metropolitan Area, seen as an extension of the existing city. "An additional area of 450 sq km will be
added, scaling the overall size to 760 sq km with a new airport."
The Chhattisgarh government also recently came up with a proposal to develop a 'New Raipur' over
25 sq km.
Amitabh Kant, managing director and CEO of DMIC Development Corporation, said Dholera has an
area of about "560 sq km urbanisable area of which 360 sq km is developable".
"It is bigger than what has been attempted in China or Korea so far. The first phase of the project
would be completed by 2016. Dholera would attract two million population on completion," Kant
says.
GIDB already possesses over 50,000 hectares of land at Dholera. The cost estimate for infrastructure
is estimated to be about Rs 38,000 crore (Rs 380 billion) and will create housing facilities for 500,000
people over 30 years, according to estimates by UK-based Helcrow who are doing the master
planning for the city.
The study states that India will require 20-25 new cities in the next 30 years near the largest 20
metropolitans by providing adequate infrastructure.
But what could be a big bottleneck is funding. The success of these cities depend a great deal on
getting private sector investment and the central government facilitating soft loans from multilateral
agencies with a 10-year moratorium, at least.
Even the McKinsey study acknowledges that. Building new cities is sustainable only when at least
300 to 400 million jobs are created and each of this city hosts a population of around 1 million, a
landmark that usually requires strong anchor tenants and several years of incubation.
International experience shows that it takes 15-20 years to reach this level of population, according to
the McKinsey study.
A recent example of a big city coming up smoothly is the Hindustan Construction Company's Lavasa
city project in Maharashtra, billed as India's largest hill city.
The Gujarat government came up with a Special Investment Region (SIR) Act in March 2009 for
setting up new cities in the state, driven by industrialisation.
About 12 such special investment regions have been identified and given to agencies for master
plan so far with two more in the offing. These include Sanand, Dholera, Changodar, Santalpur,
Hazira, Navlakhi, Simar, Pipavav, Dahej, Anjar, Okha, Aliabet, Savli and Halol.
Aliabet, which will house townships for the Japanese, has been identified as an entertainment
zone SIR to come up on about 100 sq km, said sources.
While Hitachi and Mitsubishi-led consortiums have been selected by DMICDC for laying out
plan for developing 'Smart Cities' in Dahej and Chagodar respectively, Toshiba and JGC Corp-
led consortiums will give shape to Smart Cities in the Maneswar-Bawal region of Haryana and
Shendra industrial region in Maharashtra.
The initial contours of the state government's massive plans to develop over a dozen new cities
are slowly emerging. After Dholera, Gujarat government has put its plans to develop Dahej as a
greenfield city on a fast track.
As many as half a dozen companies including construction and real estate majors like Mahindra
Lifespaces Developers(formerly known as Mahindra Gesco Developers), Unitech and Hindustan
Construction Company (HCC) have evinced interest to develop Dahej, said government sources
privy to the development.
Also in fray is Marg Construction, a Chennai based real estate and infrastructure company,
sources added.
"The minimum size for developing Dahej city is 100 sq kms. The maximum developable area is
about 350 sq kms," said sources close to the development. The estimated investment by a
developer would be about Rs 10,000 crore. The bidding process for the project is expected to be
over in three months time.
"Gujarat Industrial Development Corporation (GIDC) has recently invited expression of interest
from players with a seed capital of Rs 1,000 crore," sources said. The proposed area will have
about 75,000 to one lakh housing units.
Gujarat government came up with a Special Investment Region (SIR) Act in March 2009 for
setting up new cities in Gujarat, driven by rapid industrialisation. About 14 such special
investment regions have been identified and given to agencies for master plan so far with two
more in the offing. These include Sanand, Dholera, Changodar, Santalpur, Hazira, Navlakhi,
Simar, Pipavav, Dahej, Anjar, Okha, Aliabet, Savli and Halol.
"The minimum size for any SIR is 100 sq km," sources said
Rajgopal Nogja, President of HCC Real Estate, said "We are interested in developing Dahej in
Gujarat as a greenfield city, besides developing one city in Himachal Pradesh and in Karnataka."
Aliabet, which will house townships for the Japanese has been identified as an entertainment
zone SIR to come up in an area of about 100 sq km, said sources. Dahej has also among the four
Smart Cities planned on Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor.
It will be built on the lines of Kita Kyusyu and Yokohoma of Japan. They will be made using
smart technology, smart grids, smart water management and so on. There will be next generation
energy management systems with zero emission industrial parks.
A consortium led by Hitachi including Itochu, Tokyo Electric Power Company and Kitakyushu
City have been selected for laying out a plan for Dahej.
Following the enactment of the Gujarat Special Investment Region Act by the state government,
Dahej has been notified as a Petrochemicals and Petroleum Investment Region.
When fully functional, Dahej PCPIR - falling on the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor - is likely
to touch the export target of Rs 62,000 crore (Rs 620 billion). The area has a special economic
zone developed by GIDC in association with ONGC.
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