Fallon Research & Communications, Inc.

WASHINGTON, DC: 202-263-7292 COLUMBUS, OH: 614-341-7005

FAX: 202-318-0346 MAIL: P.O. Box 12181, Columbus, Ohio 43212

April 22, 2011

TO: Interested Parties

FR: Paul Fallon

RE: Survey Data on Unions and How They Could Affect Levies

Although there seems to be a surfeit of opinion research data available on Ohio Senate Bill 5 and
the electoral prospects of a possible repeal, there is a paucity of research on the attitudes that
voters have about unions and how such views could affect the outcome of local tax levies that
may be on the ballot in the coming year. Last week, I conducted the most recent installment of
the statewide Ohio Omnibus Survey to measure voter attitudes and test various issues of
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importance to my clients; and I included some questions for public dissemination that may paint
a clearer picture about the standing unions have among registered voters. Since unions will have
vested interests in the outcomes of many local tax levies that are on the ballot, and may play
commensurately prominent roles in the campaigns for passage, achieving victory in close races
may depend on a clear and unvarnished understanding of how they can be utilized as assets and,
frankly, when they may create liabilities.

A Divergent View of Organized Labor

Voters in Ohio seem to be greatly divided in their general views of organized labor. Overall,
48% of voters say they have favorable views of unions (see the inset box on Page 2 for an
overview of why favorable ratings are important) and 39% view them unfavorably, while the
remaining 13% have mixed opinions or are unsure. Generally speaking, unions are most popular
with African-American OVERALL FAVORABLE & UNFAVORABLE RATINGS
voters (84% favorable), 80
70
union households (76%)
70
and Democrats (67%).
60 56
Unions are least popular
48 47
with Republicans (63% 50 44 46
unfavorable). White voters 40 39 39
are the most polarized, 34
with 43% having favorable 30
22
views of unions and 44% 20
having unfavorable views 10
of them. Similarly,
unaffiliated voters (also 0
Unions Police & Fire Teachers' Private Sector Administrative
known as Independents, Unions Unions Unions & Service
and a crucial “swing vote” Unions

in many elections) are

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narrowly split with 45% viewing unions favorably and 40% viewing them unfavorably.

However, the statistics require more analysis to appreciate how truly disparate views of unions
are in the minds of Ohio voters. When union members and households are removed from the
analysis, the numbers change rather dramatically, with just 36% of non-union household voters
saying they have favorable views of unions and a
narrow majority of 50% saying they have Why Favorable Ratings Matter…
unfavorable views of unions. Because
approximately one-quarter of Ohio’s electorate is In an era when is it no longer in vogue for self-
comprised of union members and voters residing in conscious survey respondents to admit that
households with union members, they comprise a their opinions can be swayed by
numerically preponderant bloc of voters that can endorsements from other people or groups,
many pollsters and opinion researchers will
profoundly affect the shape of public opinion…as determine the viability of communication
well as elections! strategies by linking messages that survey
data indicates are persuasive with surrogate
Public Safety Unions Are Most Popular messengers that have high favorable ratings,
Unions that represent police officers and in order to deliver them or add credibility. The
most potent combination is a message that
firefighters are the most popular in the survey, with makes a large percentage of respondents
an overall favorable rating of 70% and an more likely to vote for a levy or issue, coupled
unfavorable rating of just 22%, while the with a messenger that has a high favorable
remaining 8% have mixed opinions or were rating. A messenger with a low favorable
unsure. These stratospheric figures are 22% higher rating, or one that is obscure, may undermine
impact and cause the audience to reject the
than the favorable rating for general views of validity of the message, or ignore it.
unions, and 17% lower than the unfavorable rating
for general views of unions. As impressive as the favorable rating is, what is remarkable is how
consistent and widespread the sentiment is among various segments of Ohio’s electorate. As you
could probably expect from some of the aforementioned sub-group results, police and firefighter
unions are most popular with 18 to 29 year-olds (84% favorable), African-Americans (91%),
union households (88%) and Democrats (83%), but they are also quite popular with groups that
have more polarized general views of unions, such as white voters (67% favorable), unaffiliated
voters (72%) and even a plurality of Republicans (48%). This indicates that unions which
represent police officers and firefighters can be very potent voices in public discourse about
municipal levies that fund safety services.

Teachers’ Unions Have Allies and Adversaries

Among the specific types of unions tested in the survey, results for teachers’ unions provided the
most intriguing insights. Overall, 56% of Ohio voters surveyed said they have favorable views
of teachers’ unions, which is 8% higher than the favorable rating for general views of unions,
and 34% said they have unfavorable opinions, which is 5% lower than the unfavorable rating for
general views of unions. The remaining 10% have mixed opinions or were unsure. Teachers’
unions are most popular with 18 to 29 year-olds (71%), African-Americans (92%), union
households (79%) and Democrats (74%). Teachers’ unions are least popular with non-union
households (43% unfavorable) and Republicans (61%). Impressively, 57% of unaffiliated voters
view teachers’ unions favorably, while just 31% view them unfavorably, which indicates high
standing and, presumably, credibility with this vital segment of the electorate that is frequently
the deciding factor in many local levy campaigns.

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Curiously, the favorable rating for teachers’ unions was identical for parents who have children
enrolled in public schools (56%) when compared to voters who do not have children in public
schools (56%). Although the difference was not a statistically-significant one, the unfavorable
rating for teachers’ unions is slightly higher for parents who have children enrolled in public
schools (37%) than it is compared to voters who do not have children in public schools (34%).
While this is not a difference that would be considered actionable for changing outreach
strategies to promote levies, it is somewhat sobering to realize that touting teachers’ union
endorsements may carry no more weight with pubic school parents than it does with the rest of
the electorate. It should be noted that, unlike police officers and firefighters, who typically have
comparable favorable ratings for their professions and their unions, teachers, as a profession,
usually garner higher favorable ratings than teachers’ unions in many of the Ohio school districts
where I have tested them.

Other Types of Unions Do Not Fare As Well About

On the other end of the spectrum, the least popular
specific types of unions tested in the survey are Paul
those that represent employees of private
companies and corporations, which are viewed
Fallon…
favorably by 47% of voters surveyed and
unfavorably by 39%, while the remaining 14%
have mixed opinions or were unsure, and unions
that represent government employees who hold Paul Fallon is an Ohio-based public opinion
administrative, clerical and service jobs, which are researcher, political pollster and advisor for
viewed favorably by 44% of voters surveyed and levy committees, local government agencies,
unfavorably by 46%, which was the highest school districts, interest groups and trade
aggregate unfavorable rating among any type of associations. He specializes in land-use policy
research, education and transit, as well public
union tested. The remaining 10% have mixed funding ballot issues and referendums.
opinions or were unsure. As the most embattled
type of union tested, unions representing He has worked on issues and campaigns in
government employees that hold administrative, more than 34 different states throughout the
clerical and service jobs are “upside down,” or country. He has served as the pollster for
have unfavorable ratings that are higher than their numerous campaigns to get voter approval for
favorable ratings with a multitude of key voting public funding requests for transit services,
school districts and government agencies of
sub-groups, such as voters 60 years of age or older all sizes, from Florida to California.
(42% favorable/48% unfavorable), whites
(39%/51%), non-union households (35%/57%) and unaffiliated voters (42%/49%).

Please call me at 614-341-7005, if you want to discuss this information in greater detail. Feel
free to also share it with anyone who may have an interest in the topic.
This information is based on survey research that was conducted through telephone interviews of 802 randomly-
selected registered voters in Ohio with valid residential or cellular telephone numbers that have histories of voting in
recent November general elections. The interviews were performed during the period of April 10, 2011 to April 13,
2011. The overall estimated margin of sampling error is +/- 3.46%, based on a confidence level of 95%, although it
varies for each individual question. This means that if this survey was repeated, 95 times out of 100 the results would
be within plus or minus 3.46% of those provided herein. Adjustments were made to weight the results toward
geographic and demographic characteristics of the state in order to account for under- and over-sampling that
normally occurs as a result of the random selection process, and ensure that all major voting sub-groups are
represented in proportion to their actual percentages of the electorate.

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