Professional Documents
Culture Documents
N OVEMBER 2009
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
BANK OF BOTSWANA Volume 23 No. 1
THE RESEARCH BULLETIN
NOVEMBER 2009
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Bank of Botswana Volume 23 No. 1
The Research Bulletin, November 2009, Volume 23, No 1
Published by
The Research Department, Bank of Botswana
P/Bag 154, Gaborone, Botswana.
ISSN 1027-5932
The Director
Research Department
Bank of Botswana
Private Bag 154
Gaborone
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given below.
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Selected Papers
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2009 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT – MID-TERM REVIEW
1
BANK OF BOTSWANA
Percent
2.5 An integral part of for- 10
mulating and implementing
monetary policy is commu-
8
nicating the Bank’s frame-
work to stakeholders, as
well as apprising the public 6
on economic developments,
inflation outlook and the 4
factors considered in deter-
July
2004
Apr
Oct
2005
Apr
Oct
2006
Apr
Oct
2007
Apr
Oct
2008
Apr
Oct
2009
Apr
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
mining the monetary policy
stance. Such communica-
tion is done through, among Chart 2: International Inflation
others, the Annual Reports, CHART 2: INTERNATIONAL INFLATION (J(January 2004- -June
ANUARY 2004 JUNE2009)
2009)
Monetary Policy Statements 18
SA (CPIX) Botswana
(and mid-term reviews), eco-
16 SDR countries Trading partners
nomic briefings and press
releases following Monetary 14
Policy Committee meetings.
12
In addition to the duty of
accountability, transpar- 10
ency enhances public un-
Percent
-2
3. INFLATION IN THE
2004
Apr
Oct
2005
Apr
Oct
2006
Apr
Oct
2007
Apr
Oct
2008
Apr
Oct
2009
Apr
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
2
2009 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT – MID-TERM REVIEW
CPI
of the year, inflation decel- 15 30
erated from 0.7 percent to
–0.8 percent.
10 0
3.3 On the domestic front,
the previous year’s upward
influence of fuel and food 5 -30
price increases on inflation
was substantially reduced in
2009 (Chart 3). Notably, the 0 -60
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Apr
Oct
Apr
Oct
Apr
Oct
Apr
Oct
Apr
Oct
Apr
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
annual change in the cost
of fuel decelerated from –4.9
percent in December 2008 to
–37 percent in June 2009,
due to the combination of CHART 4: CChart
ONTRIBUTION OF FOODof
4: Contribution , FFood, FuelOand
UEL AND THER ITEMS
Other PRICE
Items CHANGES
Price IN N
Changes inATIONAL INFLA-
TION (SEPTEMBER 2007 - J 2009)
National Inflation (September 2007 - June 2009)
UNE
price reduction in the second
half of 2008 and the impact 16
of last year’s large increase 14
dropping out of the inflation
12
calculation. Meanwhile, the
year-on-year increase in food 10
prices decreased from 24.9 8
Percent
Feb-09
Mar-09
Sep-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Aug-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Oct-07
Apr-08
May-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
May-09
Jan-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jun-09
the impact of the decrease
in the cost of fuel, as well as
lower food price increases. Inflation excluding food & fuel Food inflation
Domestic tradeables infla- Fuel inflation Inflation
tion also decreased from
26.4 percent in December
2008 to 18 percent in June
2009. The higher level of economy that had an adverse impact on domestic
domestic tradeables inflation reflects the impact economic activity, particularly mining output. In
of the 30 percent additional tax on alcoholic bev- the first quarter of 2009, diamond production
erages that was introduced in November 2008. was 68.6 percent lower than output for the same
Overall, all tradeables inflation eased significantly period last year and, as a result, the first quarter
from 16.3 percent to 6.5 percent over the same GDP contracted by 20.3 percent. In contrast, the
period. Meanwhile, non-tradeables inflation rose robust performance of the non-mining sector was
from 6.4 percent in December 2008 to 9.8 percent maintained, with annualised first quarter growth
in January 2009, before decelerating to 8 percent of 9.3 percent and strong performance of agricul-
in June 2009 as the previous year’s increase in ture (14.1 percent), finance and business services
electricity tariffs and transport fares dropped out (16 percent), and construction and social personal
of the inflation calculation. services, which both expanded by 12.9 percent.
3.5 Demand pressures on inflation were gener- 3.6 While there was virtually no contagion from
ally low in the context of the deteriorating world the global financial crisis to the domestic banking
3
BANK OF BOTSWANA
system,4 the private sector credit growth was 4.3 the deficit,6 while domestic bond proceeds continue
percent in the first six months of 2009, and much to be earmarked for the development of tertiary
slower than the 9.4 percent for the correspond- education infrastructure.
ing period in 2008. Indeed, lending to private
businesses fell by 4.1 percent (compared to 15.2
percent growth in 2008) while household borrow- 4. MONETARY POLICY IMPLEMENTATION IN
ing increased by 10.6 percent (compared to 5.5 THE FIRST HALF OF 2009
percent in 2008). Credit expansion in the twelve
month period to June 2009 was 22.3 percent, lower 4.1 The projections for both inflation and output
than the 27 percent for the year to June 2008. were largely unchanged from the prognosis made at
Although credit expansion continues to support the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, there were
output expansion, there is evidence of a slowdown signs in the first half of the year of a quicker global
in monetary growth and this is reflecting a more economic recovery than earlier anticipated, which
cautious lending environment, reduced demand would also imply a shorter period of output contrac-
for bank financing associated with slow economic tion in Botswana (Chart 8). There was also a risk of
activity, and an increase in loan loss provisions. inflation being higher and a delayed return to the
The upward income effect on household borrowing medium-term objective range than earlier projected,
during this period was limited by the absence of an especially taking account of price developments
across-the-board wage increase for civil servants in in South Africa and recovery in international oil
2009, which would normally be replicated by other prices.7
employers. 4.2 Overall, with the decline in the rate of price
3.7 The government expenditure programme for changes expected to continue and inflation expected
2009/10 was subject to review in the light of lower to fall towards the medium-term objective range of
revenue, and thus potentially reducing the impact 3-6 percent, monetary policy was eased in the first
of public spending on economic activity and con- half of 2009, thus providing stimulus to economic
tributing to the lacklustre GDP expansion. Never- activity in the face of downside growth risks asso-
theless, recurrent and development expenditures in ciated with the intensification of the impact of the
the fiscal year to March 2009 global economic deterioration. The Bank Rate was
were robust and 41.2 per- Chart 5: Global Output Forecasts (2008 - 2010)
cent higher than spending CHART 5: GLOBAL OUTPUT FORECASTS (2008 – 2010)
for the corresponding period 3.5
in 2008; this compares with 2009
3.0
the original budget estimate 2010
of a 14.7 percent increase in 2.5
expenditure.5 For the fiscal 2.0
year 2009/10, the deficit of
P13.4 billion announced in 1.5
1.0
Speech, and representing
0.5
annual expenditure growth
of 5.3 percent, is likely to be 0.0
significantly reduced in the -0.5
context of the 5 – 7 percent
-1.0
cut in budgeted expenditure
and the ongoing review and -1.5
prioritisation of projects. -2.0
However, the Government Nov 08 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09
still maintained a countercy- Date of forecast
clical stance and has secured
Source: World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund.
an external loan to finance
4
2009 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT – MID-TERM REVIEW
26-Oct-07
21-Apr-08
27-Apr-09
25-Jul-06
12-Jan-07
16-Jun-08
24-Jun-09
9-May-07
4-Jan-06
4-Jul-07
21-Feb-08
5-Jan-09
26-Feb-09
19-Sep-06
15-Nov-06
29-Aug-07
21-Dec-07
10-Aug-08
19-Sep-08
10-Nov-08
1-Mar-06
9-Mar-07
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Apr
Oct
Apr
Oct
Apr
Oct
Apr
Oct
Apr
Oct
Apr
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
5
BANK OF BOTSWANA
holdings. The real effective exchange rate (REER)10 Overall, South Africa’s annual headline inflation
of the Pula depreciated by 0.6 percent in the six is projected to remain above the upper end of the
months to June 2009 due to both the narrowing of 3–6 percent inflation target for the whole of 2009.
inflation differentials with trading partner countries In the context of sluggish economic activity, the
and the nominal depreciation against the rand. In South African Reserve Bank is expected to maintain
effect, the rate of crawl more than offset the infla- the current easy monetary policy stance, but with
tion differential, thus reversing part of last year’s a reduced likelihood of further interest rate cuts in
appreciation of the REER. the short term.
4.5 Movements in interest rates and the Pula 5.3 World economic performance remains weak,
exchange rate are reflected in changes in the real with output forecast to decline by 1.4 percent in
monetary conditions index, which measures the 2009, from an estimated growth of 3.1 percent
relative tightness and easiness of financing condi- the previous year, before recovering to 2.5 per-
tions in the economy. As shown in Chart 10, with cent in 2010. The forecast contraction in global
the progressive reduction in interest rates, the fall economic activity in 2009 is attributed more to
in inflation and narrowing of inflation differentials weaker performance in advanced economies and
vis-à-vis the average inflation of trading partner the concomitant contraction in trade flows (Chart
countries, real monetary conditions loosened, po- 8). It is expected that the stimulus packages and
tentially facilitating domestic demand-led stimulus financial support to the financial system and other
to economic activity, as well as enhanced interna- industries, as well as enhanced bilateral and mul-
tional competitiveness of the domestic industry. tilateral support for vulnerable economies, would
contribute to a quicker economic recovery. It is,
however, projected that growth will remain sig-
5. MEDIUM-TERM INFLATION OUTLOOK nificantly lower than long-term potential. In the
circumstances, global inflation remains low and is
5.1 The forecast inflation path is determined by
forecast to average 2.5 percent for 2009. However,
a combination of, among others, prospective de-
there is an upside risk to the inflation outlook due
velopments with respect to demand-pull pressures
mainly to uncertainties with respect to develop-
resulting from real economic activity, imported
ments in international oil prices (around USD70
inflation and other exogenous factors, such as
in July from a low of USD44 in December 2008).
changes in administered
prices. The external influ-
ences on domestic prices CHART 8: EXPORT, IMPORT AND GDP QUARTERLY GROWTH ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS FOR
Chart 8: Export, Import and GDP Quarterly Growth Estimates and Forecasts
include economic and finan- DEVELOPED ECONOMIES for Developed Economies
cial developments in South
10
Africa, which is Botswana’s
major trading partner, as 5
well as global events, such
0
as changes in international
2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4
commodity prices and de- -5
mand in major markets.11
-10
Percent
6
2009 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT – MID-TERM REVIEW
Percent
pressures on inflation over
the medium term. The March 8
2009 Business Expectations
Survey (BES) revealed wide-
6
spread pessimism among
both the domestic and ex-
port-oriented firms. Overall, 4
business confidence had
declined from 82 percent in 2
the September 2008 survey 2008:4 2009:1 2009:2 2009:3 2009:4 2010:1 2010:2 2010:3 2010:4 2011:1
to 40 percent in the March Year-on-year Inflation
2009 survey. Businesses,
nevertheless, anticipated
positive output growth in 2009/10, possibly bu- 6. MONETARY POLICY STANCE
oyed by government efforts to maintain spending
at levels sufficient to support growth outside the 6.1 The recent and prospective economic de-
mining sector. While the government will incur a velopments indicate a continuation of sluggish
large budget deficit to support economic activity, economic growth, due to lower external demand,
expenditure growth will be at a lower level given a reduced rate of government expenditure growth
the ongoing project review. It is also anticipated and a slower rate of monetary expansion. While it
that expansion of credit to the private sector will is anticipated that output expansion will resume
continue to slow in the context of lower growth in following negative growth in the last quarter of 2008
economic activity, more cautious lending approach and first quarter of 2009, in Botswana and globally,
by banks and restrained demand for credit, as well it is forecast that the ensuing rate of increase in
as a moderate increase in personal incomes. In this output will be lower than the long-term trend.
regard, the March BES indicated much reduced In turn, both the external and domestic demand
expectations of additional borrowing, from both pressures on inflation will continue to be low. In
domestic and external sources. addition, there are base effects of the large impact
of last year’s 30 percent alcohol levy dropping out
5.5 The narrowing inflation differentials between of the inflation calculation; hence the forecast for
Botswana and the trading partner countries suggest a further decline in inflation. On the other hand,
continuance of a marginal downward rate of crawl the projected decrease in inflation provides scope
with virtually no upward pressure on inflation. for maintenance of expansionary monetary policy
However, market forecasts suggest that the rand to support domestic economic recovery, particu-
will appreciate in the short term and the resultant larly in an environment in which fiscal stimulus is
depreciation of the Pula against the South African constrained by the fall in government revenues.
rand will exert some modest upward pressure on
domestic inflation. Additional upside risks to the 6.2 However, there are significant threats to the
inflation outlook include possible large increases positive inflation outlook, notably the threat of
in administered prices, notably an increase in elec- an increase in fuel prices which has potential for
tricity tariffs in the context of higher power import wide-ranging second-round effects. In addition, the
costs and to recover the costs of expansion of gen- Botswana Power Corporation faces an increase in
eration and supply infrastructure. Meanwhile, the costs after the main supplier, ESKOM, was given
March 2009 BES shows expectations of a decline permission to raise tariffs. Furthermore, in order to
in inflation, with businesses anticipating lower help finance expansion of the power supply infra-
rates of increase for business costs, including raw structure, there could be a large and inflationary
materials and wages. Overall, the Bank forecasts increase in local electricity tariffs. In addition, there
that inflation will, in the short to medium term, remains a possibility of an upward adjustment of
stabilise around the objective range (Chart 9). other administered prices and consumption taxes,
as well as government levies, particularly given the
strain on fiscal resources. However, such one-off
price developments would be transitory and, to the
7
BANK OF BOTSWANA
extent that the second-round impact and expecta- Rate by 400 basis points between December 2008
tions are contained, would not result in a continu- and June 2009.
ous rise in inflation.
7.2 It is anticipated that external inflationary
6.3 Overall, output projections and prospects pressures will continue to be restrained due to weak
for monetary expansion indicate benign upward demand and slack labour market conditions (hence,
pressures on inflation. Except for a sustained in- low wage pressures) and stabilisation of commod-
crease in fuel prices, the effect of changes in other ity prices at lower levels than in the previous year.
administered prices and taxes would be transitory. Weaker domestic economic activity, a lower rate of
The important thing, however, is taking appropriate increase in business costs and restrained growth
and timely action to contain second-round effects in personal incomes will also moderate demand
and to manage expectations. As reflected in Chart pressures on inflation. There remain upside risks
10, going forward, the projected movements in to inflation due to uncertainty on international oil
real exchange rates and real interest rates, as well price movements and a possible large increase in
as narrowing inflation differentials vis-à-vis trad- administered prices. Overall, it is expected that
ing partner countries suggest less tight monetary inflation will stabilise around the medium term
conditions.12 objective range in the short to medium term.
Chart 10 7.3 In the circumstances,
CHART 10: REAL MONETARY CONDITIONS INDEX (RMCI) (DECEMBER 2008 – MARCH 2011) the prevailing monetary
6 policy stance that is charac-
terised by a monetary easing
5 RMCI REER Gap RIR Gap bias remains appropriate in
the short term and supports
4 a recovery of economic activ-
ity, including maintenance
3 of robust performance of
the non-mining sectors. The
2
Bank will continue to moni-
Percent
-3
-4
2008:4 2009:1 2009:2 2009:3 2009:4 2010:1 2010:2 2010:3 2010:4 2011:1
8
The Importance of Sound
dard through metadata management.2 In addition,
the paper also explains the benefits that the country
Statistics – Botswana’s
the paper is on the country’s experience with the
production of monetary and balance of payments
9
S. LEGWAILA
10
THE IMPACT OF VALUE ADDED TAX ON INFLATION IN BOTSWANA
IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF). outlining appropriately prioritised plans for im-
The report noted that Botswana’s statistics were provement, which were first published in the IMF
generally of good quality, but needed improvements Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) in
in both compilation and, more importantly, dis- August 2002.6 To initiate and assist with the imple-
semination frequency and timeliness. Accordingly, mentation of these plans, the national authorities
since 2001, Botswana has participated in the re- requested TA from the IMF under both phases of
gional General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) the GDDS Project. A largely ad hoc, country specific
project for Anglophone African countries, for which approach was used in the first phase; however, in
technical assistance (TA) funded by DFID was the latter phase a modular approach was adopted
provided jointly by the IMF and the World Bank. under which groups of countries were provided with
Initially, the project was intended to last for three structured assistance in key areas.
years, but was subsequently extended to a second With regard to monetary statistics, the first TA
phase up to September 2009, with the possibility mission took place in 2003. During the follow-up
of a third phase. missions in August 2004 and 2005, the range of
Under the project, the following major recom- monetary data was expanded alongside the adop-
mendations were made under the various statisti- tion of the framework recommended by the 2000
cal areas: Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM)
(a) monetary statistics: expansion of data cover- and data were published using standardised report
age to include other depository corporations forms. Other work included the adoption of instru-
that were not covered in the then monetary ment classification and definitions of institutional
survey and produce a full depository corpora- units as outlined in the framework recommended
tions survey; proper application of the concept by the MFSM and the MFS Compilation Guide.
of residency by banks; banks to submit data For balance of payments, the major objective
electronically; and the need for the development was to compile and publish the quarterly balance
of statistical database software; of payments accounts; a goal which was achieved
(b) balance of payments statistics: improving peri- in January 2008. However, a remaining challenge
odicity to quarterly as opposed to annual data is the large errors and omissions which imply
as well as improve coverage and/or methodol- significant miss-estimation in one or more of the
ogy for various balance of payments items, most sub-accounts. This is likely to be due to deficiencies
importantly trade in services; with information collected as part of the quarterly
(c) government finance statistics (GFS): adopt the and annual balance of payments survey. Further
2001 GFS Manual and timely dissemination of TA is being sought to help resolve the problem.
central government budgetary accounts as well This commenced with a further IMF TA mission
as compilation of consolidated data of general in early 2009, but is also likely to involve other
government (both local and central govern- providers of TA.7
ment); and Efforts over the last few years have focused on
(d) real sector statistics: acceleration of work pro- ensuring that the monetary and financial and the
gramme for implementing System of National balance of payments statistics are in conformity
Account (SNA) 1993 with respect to national with the MFSM and the 1993 Balance of Payments
accounts, production and dissemination of Manual, fifth edition (BPM5), which provide practi-
producer price index (PPI) as well as regular cal guidance for compiling statistics in those areas,
5-yearly updates of the consumer price index as well as dissemination issues. Further improve-
weights. ments in this and other areas will continue beyond
Phase II of the GDDS project.
Prior to 2001, except for internal working
documents, the Bank of Botswana had no publicly
available documentation on how the data were pro-
ACHIEVING DATA QUALITY THROUGH
duced. Moreover, while the data were disseminated
on a timely and regular basis,5 there was no publicly METADATA MANAGEMENT
available metadata documentation. Thus, apart Besides the need to improve documentation of data
from relying on past experience, data users had no production processes, enhancement of metadata
means of knowing when they could expect to receive quality has to be maintained and managed on an
data updates, what the policy was regarding revi-
sions; nor did they have confidence that other users 6 Botswana made notable progress in this regard.
Prior to the ROSC mission, metadata was a largely
did not have more favourable access to data.
unknown concept to compilers of statistics in the
country. Nevertheless, Botswana was among the
Implementing Plans for Improvement first countries involved in the project to produce and
Participation in the Anglophone Africa GDDS publish metadata on the DSBB.
Project has led to the development of metadata, 7 Notably, both the Macroeconomic and Financial
Management Institute of Eastern and Southern Af-
5 Principally through two Bank publications: the rica (MEFMI) and the Commonwealth Secretariat are
monthly Botswana Financial Statistics and the Annual providing assistance on monitoring private capital
Report. flows.
11
S. LEGWAILA
ongoing basis to meet the needs of both users and showed how much progress had been and could be
producers. Following the prompt moves to prepare expected to be made. In this regard, documenting
and post metadata on the DSBB (see footnote 3), plans for improvement in the metadata is good for
this achievement was followed up with deliberate guiding prioritisation for technical assistance. For
steps to implement the plans for further improve- Botswana, this has promoted clearer prioritisa-
ments and these were recorded in the updates of tion within and among the three data producing
metadata that are undertaken annually. Focusing agencies.
on metadata issues has helped to highlight what This also creates peer pressure for Botswana to
needed to be done to effect improvement, and has benchmark against countries that have achieved
also added backbone and discipline to Botswana’s higher data quality standards, hence instilling
statistics production efforts, including improved discipline in ensuring perseverance in data im-
data quality, dissemination and coordination provements efforts. This is facilitated by the regular
among agencies and between data sets. updates of metadata on the DSBB, which enables
users to compare the standards achieved in Bot-
Data Quality Improvements swana with the many other countries, not just in
By implementing plans for improvements with Africa, that participate in GDDS.9
determination, Botswana has made considerable Development and improvement of statistics is a
progress in terms of improving the quality of data continuous process and, therefore, requires careful
and its dissemination. For instance, the Bank of planning taking into account resource constraints
Botswana was able to publish the required deposi- before graduation to the next level, i.e. subscription
tory corporations survey within three years of sub- to the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standards
scribing to the GDDS project. Quarterly balance of (SDDS). SDDS is more demanding than GDDS
payments estimates are also published regularly, in terms of specific standards that must be both
although, as noted above, concerns about some achieved and maintained, and thus requires insti-
aspects of the data remain. Similarly, the CSO has tutional capacity development and policy review.
improved quality of key indicators, such as monthly For example, a wider range of data categories is
trade statistics. covered, and countries that persistently fall short
of the required standards are identified.10 Therefore,
Improved Dissemination while Botswana has participated in the module in
Similarly, data dissemination has improved. Mon- the second phase of the GDDS project to help her
etary statistics are submitted on a monthly basis prepare for SDDS, the final decision to subscribe
for publication in the IMF International Financial should not be taken lightly.
Statistics (IFS), in standardised report formats, There can also be a tradeoff among the different
and are also published on the Bank of Botswana dimensions of data standards. For instance, the
website8 each month. Metadata is published on the GDDS emphasises timelines, which could result in
DSBB and currently updated on an annual basis an erosion of quality if data is published before it
or when there are new developments to the data. is ready in order to meet the target deadline. There
A link to the metadata is provided on the Bank’s are also practical issues, especially for countries
website, which is currently under review to ensure with limited capacity in terms of trained and expe-
enhanced data accessibility. These efforts increased rienced staff, etc. For such countries in particular,
data reporting frequency and quality, and has also cooperation between data producers and users can
given rise to closer coordination between the Bank make sense, but may risk violating the data dis-
of Botswana, CSO and MFDP, as the key data semination standards relating to equal access for
producing agencies through fora such as the SPC, all users. In this context, it can be a challenge for
and a national GDDS committee, comprising rep- the Bank of Botswana, which is also a major user
resentatives from all the three statistics agencies. of statistics, to cooperate effectively with the CSO
The close cooperation has resulted in accountability in the production of statistics (national accounts,
in jointly pursuing agreed goals in terms of data for example), without breaching the spirit of this
production schedules. principle.
Capacity constraints also affect suppliers of
the raw information that is necessary to compile
LESSONS AND CHALLENGES statistics. These are typically private business
Although the Bank has made significant progress that, in a small country such as Botswana tend
in improving its data, it is evident that, while the to be small-scale and limited in number. As such
country needs to be proactive in taking action where
statistics improvements are concerned, the plans 9 www.dsbb.imf.org. Currently, 94 coutries participate
in GDDS.
and goals need to be so designed as to be achiev-
able in a manageable time frame. Limitations and 10 Additional categories that are covered include foreign
constraints become clear during regular reviews. exchange reserves (the reserves template), interna-
tional debt, labour market and production indicators,
For example, the second ROSC mission in 2006
etc, while requirement in terms of frequency and
timeliness of publication are much more stringent
8 www.bankofbotswana.bw than with GDDS.
12
THE IMPACT OF VALUE ADDED TAX ON INFLATION IN BOTSWANA
CONCLUSION
Botswana has gone a long way in improving its
statistics, and has done it right the first time, by
producing and using metadata to guide the data
improvements. The improved coordination among
data producing agencies is notable, and the par-
ticipation of Botswana in the SDDS module of the
second phase of the GDDS project, confirms the
extent of the progress that has been made. However,
subscription to SDDS remains a challenge which
will require further time to deal with and should not
be rushed. As well as increasing the range of data
coverage, further improvements need to be made
in terms of accuracy and timeliness, as well as to
increase efforts to manage the National Summary
Data Page (NSDP) and produce an Advance Release
Calendar (ARC), both of which are key requirement
of SDDS.12
Overall, though there are challenges with
respect to graduating to SDDS and capacity con-
straints, effort are continuing with the assistance
of international agencies such as the IMF and the
World Bank, in helping with the development of the
country’s statistics in general through provision
of technical assistance and training. In general,
there have been marked improvements in the
country’s statistics. In the period ahead, Botswana
will continue to learn from other countries that
have succeeded in adopting and utilising modern
data models and developing world-class metadata
systems to ensure coherence and ease in data
production and use.
13
S. LEGWAILA
14
Overview of Initiatives to
environment. The organisational and institutional
initiatives towards regional integration are expected
Integration: An African
higher levels of investment and industrialisation,
enhance efficiency of resource allocation, afford
15
K S MASALILA
As apparent from Appendix Table A1, a feature (d) goods market integration
of these regional inter-governmental organisations, (e) political integration
which potentially slows progress towards integra- However, the major drawback of the envisaged
tion, is their significant overlapping of membership economic integration and the adoption of common
motivated by strategic and political considerations, policies is loss of monetary policy independence
as well as economic benefits and geographical con- for the individual countries. In moving ahead with
tiguity. The disadvantages of multiple memberships integration, it is considered that the benefits in
include difficulties and tardiness in relation to: terms of trade, optimal policy formulation, en-
meeting financial obligations to the RECs; focusing hanced welfare and security, as well as the likely
on numerous agendas of each REC; low rates of rat- increase in living standards outweigh the loss of
ification and implementation of agreed treaties and policy independence for the individual countries.
programmes; incompatibility of some programmes; Moreover, it is argued that over time the desire to
duplication of effort; and little support for, and/or work towards economic integration brings its own
understanding of RECs in member countries. The benefits (Ghosh, Guide and Wolf, 2008, p176). For
other concern with overlapping and uncoordinated example, while, initially, weak transaction links and
membership is with respect to countries belonging a lack of complementarity in output provide struc-
to broader regional groupings pursuing economic tural reasons for low integration, aggravated by
integration, which also include those that do not uneven progress in implementing trade liberalisa-
belong to the monetary unions, a situation which tion agreements, targeting a customs union, which
increases operational problems, as well as compli- would include the elimination of intra-union tariffs
cate the planning for possible future enlargement and the harmonisation of indirect taxes, leads to
(Ghosh, Guide and Wolf, 2008). These concerns and progress in economic integration. On process and
impediments to the integration process led the AU administrative issues, it has also been noted that
Summit held in Banjul in 2006 to put a moratorium a regional approach in key structural areas, such
on the recognition of new RECs. as tariff reduction and harmonisation, legal and
The AU programme envisages the gradual inte- regulatory reform, payment systems rationalisation,
gration of African economies through a transition financial sector reorganisation, investment incen-
process from establishing free trade areas, customs tive and tax system harmonisation, and labour
unions, common markets, monetary unions, cul- market reform enable participating countries to
minating in one continental central bank (African pool their resources and avail themselves of regional
Central Bank) and a single currency; initially for institutional and human resources. As a result, the
the RECs and then for the continent. In a free group of countries attains a level of technical and
trade area, the group of countries eliminates tariffs administrative competence that would not be pos-
and non-tariff barriers on substantially all trade sible on an individual country basis. The regional
between them, with each country maintaining its approach also allows countries to assert their in-
own schedule of tariffs on non-members. For a terests from a stronger and more confident position
customs union, the group of countries constitutes in the international arena (Outtarra, 1999).
a single customs territory in which duties and In addition, the focus on common and optimal
other restrictive trade regulations are eliminated for macroeconomic policies ultimately leads to better
substantially all trade between the parties and, in outcomes with respect to important economic indi-
addition, there is a common external tariff applied cators. There is, as well, the desire to foster interre-
to trade with non-members. In a common market, gional trade and capital flows, to insulate monetary
in addition to having a customs union, restrictions policy from national politics, and to minimise the
on the movement of capital and labour are removed, adverse impact of global capital flows by pooling
allowing for free movement of goods, services and reserves. It is noted, for example, that,
factors of production. A monetary union augments
“The European experience suggests two possible
a common market by establishing a single monetary
benefits, policy credibility and trade and finan-
authority which conducts monetary policy for the
cial integration. Indeed, while the original moti-
union, resulting in introduction of a single currency
vation for European monetary integration in the
(SADC FTA Brochure, 2009).
1970 Werner Report was fostering greater inte-
Integration is undertaken based on desirable
gration of goods and capital markets in Europe,
features of an optimal currency area (OCA)3 which
in the event the impetus for maintaining fixed ex-
include the nature and extent of:
change rates (and eventually adopting a single
(a) price and wage flexibility
currency) was to import the Bundesbank’s policy
(b) financial market integration
credibility to aid disinflation efforts in the early
(c) factor market integration (capital and labour
1980s” (Ghosh, Guide and Wolf, 2008, p186).
mobility)
Work is, therefore ongoing on the regional inte-
gration agenda to develop policies and programmes
3 Optimal currency area or region describes a situa-
that would hasten the formation of the AEC; pro-
tion whereby a geographical region would maximise
economic efficiency by having the entire region share mote intra-African trade; harmonise and coordi-
a single currency (Mundell, 1963). nate policies and programmes in RECs; as well as
16
AN OVERVIEW OF INITIATIVES TO PROMOTE CONVERGENCE IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL INTEGRATION: AN AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE
coordinate the development of infrastructure and structures, tariffs, business and labour laws, as
institutions (Mouyelo-Katoula and Nshimyumure- well as payment systems.
myi, 2007). In summary, the envisaged phases for The focus on convergence can also improve
transition to AEC are as follows:4 general governance, adherence to prudent policies,
(a) creation of regional blocs to be completed by a monitoring framework and, in turn, performance
1999; with respect to important economic indicators.
(b) strengthening of intra-REC integration and Notably, convergence suggests the adoption of
inter-REC harmonisation to be completed in the highest standard or optimal policy over which
2007; there are monitoring mechanisms and sanctions for
(c) establishment of a free trade area and customs non-performance. There is, therefore, self-imposed
union in each regional bloc to be completed by policy and regulatory discipline that motivates
2017; compliance, a factor which engenders policy cred-
(d) establishment of a continent-wide customs ibility that, in turn, help to promote investment
union and, therefore, a free trade area to be and market opportunities. In essence, regional
completed by 2019; surveillance and the dialogue between the various
(e) establishment of a continent-wide African Com- partners reduce the risks of slippages in meeting
mon Market to be completed by 2023; pre-agreed performance benchmarks, resulting in a
(f) establishment of a continent-wide economic more stable, predictable environment, which is an
and monetary union and, thus, also a currency essential condition for the private sector to flour-
union alongside the pan-African Parliament to ish. Furthermore, the conditions and obligations
be completed by 2028; and associated with participation in reform programmes
within a regional organisation also facilitate the
(g) end of all transition arrangements by 2034 at
work of the domestic authorities in implement-
the latest.
ing politically difficult but important measures
that promote fiscal prudence and macroeconomic
Convergence in the Context of Regional Inte-
stability, as well as foster a conducive business
gration in Africa
environment.
Convergence in the context of regional integration is
Specific initiatives taken towards the achieve-
essential to establish commonality in an economic
ment of economic integration in Africa include
region, in particular relating to symmetric economic
policies, infrastructure development, trade facilita-
performance, institutional development, regulation
tion and administrative processes, as well as legal
harmonisation, access to infrastructure, as well
reforms.
as policy-making coordination and administrative
efficiency. Since economic integration entails a (a) Macroeconomic Convergence: Policies and
common approach to policy formulation or a central
Benchmarks
policy-making authority, it is important that this
Convergence criteria normally centre on economic
is not constrained by considerations of asymmetry
indicators that are related to macroeconomic policy
or disparate performance with respect to economic
formulation and performance. These include the
indicators and national institutions. Moreover, in
rate of economic growth, level of inflation, interest
order to have a common effect across the region,
rates, exchange rate performance, and ratios of the
centralised policy has to reflect symmetrical de-
budget deficit, as well as government debt to GDP;
velopments and need to be transmitted through
alongside ratios of savings and investment to GDP.
similar institutions and administrative processes.
The African Monetary Cooperation Programme
Symmetry for the region can be assessed in terms
(AMCP) provides a blueprint for macroeconomic
of whether: shocks to output are in the same direc-
convergence for the continent and was formulated
tion; the shocks are of comparable magnitude; and
with the objective of ensuring the adoption of col-
whether aggregate GDP for the region is dominated
lective policy measures that foster a harmonised
by movements of one or two members.
monetary system and commonality in the man-
In addition to issues of symmetry in economic
agement of institutions. The programme has a
performance and policy formulation, it is also
long-term perspective involving (a) the adjustment
important to have similar standards and a coor-
of member countries exchange rate to equilibrium
dinated approach to the regulation of systemically
levels, (b) eventual exchange control-free current
important institutions such as the financial sector
and capital account transactions, and (c) the pur-
institutions and economic activities; for example,
suit of market-oriented monetary policy. The ulti-
institutions responsible for control of monopolies
mate aim is to evolve (through the regional central
and competition. Beyond regulation, other consid-
banks) towards a single monetary zone by 2021,
erations relate to harmonisation of legislation, in-
with a common currency and continental central
stitutions, statistics and administrative processes;
bank (Table 1).
especially with respect to tax and trade incentive
Broadly, macroeconomic convergence is to be
4 This programme may, however, become redundant promoted through implementation of appropriate
as the AU pushes for the fast tracking of the African monetary policy and fiscal policy. Among the initia-
financial institutions.
17
K S MASALILA
TABLE 1: STAGES FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AFRICAN MONETARY COOPERATION PROGRAMME (AMCP)*
Stage I:
2002 - 2003 Adoption by sub-regions of monetary integration programmes
Stage II:
2004 - 2008 1. Harmonisation and coordination of macroeconomic and monetary policies
2. Gradual interconnection of payments and clearing systems
(a) Promotion of African banking networks
(b) Promotion of sub-regional and regional stock exchanges
(c) Strengthening and harmonisation of banking and financial supervision
3. Observance of the following macroeconomic indicators by 2008
(a) Budget deficit/GDP ratio not exceeding 5 percent
(b) Central bank credit to government not exceeding 10 percent of previous year’s
tax revenue
(c) Single digit inflation rate
(d) External reserves/import cover of at least 3 months
Stage III:
2009 - 2012 Observance of the following macroeconomic indicators by 2012
(a) Budget deficit/GDP ratio not exceeding 3 percent by 2012
(b) Elimination of central bank credit to the government
(c) Inflation rate of less than 5 percent
(d) External reserves/import cover equal or greater than 6 months
Stage IV:
2013 - 2015 Assessment of macroeconomic performance and negotiation for the establishment of a
common central bank (2015); consolidation of third stage achievements
(a) Inflation rate of less than 3 percent
tives in this respect is the transition towards an Af- there are efforts to ensure effective policy-making
rican Central Bank. However, this goal is preceded and programme implementation to meet the set
by creation of regional central banks within regional
economic communities. Within this framework,
18
AN OVERVIEW OF INITIATIVES TO PROMOTE CONVERGENCE IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL INTEGRATION: AN AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE
goals by these regional institutions.5 In this regard, the development and enactment of common trade
central bank legislation is being reviewed to achieve policies (United Nations Economic Commission for
independence and proper allocation of institu- Africa, 2008). The creation of and/or accession to
tional responsibilities. For example, within SADC, customs unions would result in a reduction in the
a model central bank law has been completed to number of RECs, as countries belonging to more
guide country legislation that would conform to the than one REC have to choose which customs un-
ideals and policy perspective of a regional central ion to join. In terms of progress, the East African
bank. Table 2 outlines the objectives of monetary Community became a customs union in 2005,
cooperation in selected RECs and Table 3 shows while SADC adopted a programme to establish a
the macroeconomic convergence criteria. customs union by 2010; by 2008 twelve (of the
15) SADC countries had established a Free Trade
(b) Trade and Market Integration Area, which envisages the absence of tariffs on 85
In the main, trade and market integration is in- percent of all trade in intra-community goods for
tended to be achieved through transition to cus- the 12 countries.
toms union arrangements and the harmonisation
of tariffs, such that the flow of goods and services (c) Financial Markets and Payments System
between the REC member countries is on the same Integration
terms and conditions as within each country. In The regional cooperation agenda recognises the
pursuit of this goal, market and trade integration need for effective financial markets to mobilise
within the RECs is being promoted through meas- resources in support of development objectives,
ures that include the removal of tariff barriers to by increasing both the volume and productivity
intra-REC trade, removal of non-tariff barriers and of investment, as well as the importance of en-
hancing competition in the financial sector and
5 There is, nevertheless, a challenge in that some of the improving its corporate governance. The range of
RECs’ programmes do not conform to that of the AU instruments availed by developed financial markets
in the sense that some of the regional central banks facilitate policy transmission as well as serving as
are planned to be established after the African Central a platform for regional integration and for Africa
Bank and so are some of the regional currencies.
19
K S MASALILA
20
AN OVERVIEW OF INITIATIVES TO PROMOTE CONVERGENCE IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL INTEGRATION: AN AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE
to integrate into the global economy. Integrated therefore, created statistical units/institutions
financial and capital markets also potentially ad- aimed at strengthening the harmonisation of na-
dress the problem of the thinness and lack of li- tional statistics and building capacity. This effort is
quidity in individual country’s markets. Moreover, supported by the African Development Bank, which
the economies of scale provide scope for reducing has set up a capacity building programme through
costs, enhancing capacity building, maximising the provision of financial and technical support un-
resource mobilisation and enhancing the efficiency der the framework of the International Comparison
of resource allocation. Programme for Africa (ICP-Africa), (Mouyelo-Ka-
Therefore, efforts are underway towards the toula and Nshimyumuremyi, 2007). The ICP is a
establishment of regional institutions, adoption of global statistical initiative established to produce
common policies and regulatory frameworks, in ad- internationally comparable price and expenditure
dition to harmonisation of standards. In this regard, data to facilitate cross-country comparisons of GDP
it is suggested that the EAC could serve as a model and its sub-aggregates in real terms that are free
for the integration of financial markets in Africa, of price and exchange rate distortions (Mouyelo-
since it has established effective cooperation in the Katoula and Nshimyumuremyi, 2007, p10).
areas of policy formulation, regulatory and legal Mouyelo-Katoula and Nshimyumuremyi (2007)
issues, as well as in structural and institutional highlight the fact that GDP and inflation-related
matters. For example, a Capital Markets Develop- indicators require relevant statistical systems to be
ment Committee initiates common policies for the harmonised at sub-regional and regional levels in
EAC. Its membership comprises representatives terms of: (a) common definitions of indicators to be
of member states from central banks, securities used to monitor convergence criteria; (b) the scope
markets regulators, ministries of finance/treasury, of the indicators in terms of their main components
stock exchanges, and insurance and pension fund or the indicators they are derived from, their sta-
regulators (United Nations Economic Commission tus, as well as desired frequency; (c) determining
for Africa, 2008). In the SADC region, the SADC the statistical framework which would ensure data
Committee of Stock Exchanges provides leader- comparability; and (d) providing guidelines for
ship and oversight for the harmonisation of list- future activities in order to set up a harmonised
ing requirements and operating systems for stock statistical system for Africa.
exchanges in member states, as well as the quali-
fication for the region’s stockbrokers. In addition, (e) Overview and Monitoring Mechanism for
it encourages cross-listing. The WAEMU countries Convergence
are served by a regional stock exchange, the Bourse The regional integration effort also incorporates
Regionale des Valeurs Mobiliéres/West African frameworks for monitoring progress on macroeco-
Stock Exchange (BRVM), which was established in nomic convergence and implementation of the re-
1998 with eight regional branches interconnected gional integration agenda. The AMCP, for example,
to the headquarters under the supervision of the requires that periodic (quarterly reports) be sub-
Regional Savings and Capital Market Board. For the mitted to the Association of African Central Banks
ECOWAS region, the BRVM also cooperates with (AACB) Secretariat and the AEC/AU Secretariat in
the Nigerian Stock Exchange and the Ghana Stock order to facilitate the monitoring and evaluation
Exchange to achieve convergence of rules, surveil- of the performance of countries and RECs. The
lance procedures and training. Other examples permanent institutional framework for monitoring
are the Central African exchange and cooperation performance at the level of member states and at
agreements in the AMU region. the sub-regional level is as follows:
The SADC payments system project is also a i. Convergence Council, comprising Ministers of
notable example. Its objective is to assist individual Finance and Central Bank Governors, which
SADC member countries to define a payment sys- reports to the Authority of the Heads of State
tem strategy and development plan, and put in and Government of the AU;
place a coordinated regional approach to cross-bor- ii. Coordinating Committee, made up of the Bu-
der payments. A sound and robust domestic pay- reau of the AACB, i.e., Chairman, Vice Chair-
ment system within each country is a prerequisite man and Chairmen of the Regional Committees.
for implementing an effective cross-border payment The Committee evaluates proposals of the
systems strategy. Technical Committee and makes recommenda-
tions for the consideration of the Convergence
(d) Convergence Measurement and Statistical
Council;
Harmonisation iii. Technical Committee, comprising officials of
Yet another important initiative relates to enhanc- Central Banks and Ministries of Finance, evalu-
ing the comparability of convergence and other eco- ates and analyses information from the various
nomic and social indicators. Its aim is to facilitate sub-regions and makes proposals to the Coor-
the usage of a common platform in the assessment dinating Committee relating to macroeconomic
of the indicators of economic and social integration convergence criteria.
process. Some customs unions and RECs have,
Below these structures, there are organs in charge
21
K S MASALILA
of carrying out and monitoring the macroeconomic ing a tendency among the member countries
convergence activities within the RECs. to have convergence in macroeconomic policy,
particularly monetary policy;
Performance and Assessment of Integration (b) a tendency of convergence of inflation levels
and Convergence Initiatives within COMESA indicating some convergence
The United Nations Economic Commission for Afri- in monetary policies;
ca (UNECA) report (2008) provides a comprehensive (c) similar to SADC and COMESA, a generally de-
analysis of progress towards economic integration creasing variation in inflation is observed over
and convergence in monetary and fiscal policies.6 time for the ECOWAS region;
The report points out that, although the RECs have (d) in the CEMAC region, the dispersion in inflation
made some progress, Africa still faces a number of is relatively low and stable compared with the
challenges. First, there are no enforcement mecha- other RECs, reflecting a high level of inflation
nisms to deal with African States that decide not to convergence among the member countries and
adhere to protocols and treaties to which they are strong convergence in monetary policy;
signatories. Second, there are no compensating ar- (e) the variability of inflation within WAEMU has
rangements for the losers of the integration process; decreased markedly since the late 1990s, show-
and this shortcoming acts as a constraint for the ing clear evidence of monetary policy conver-
full implementation of integration schemes. Third, gence among the member countries
compared to world standards, Africa’s infrastruc- Fiscal balance is used as the key indicator to
ture network is generally very weak, constraining capture progress made towards harmonising fiscal
the physical integration of the continent. Fourth, policies within the RECs. The results show that
the multiple memberships of countries in various the overall variability in fiscal balance within each
RECs, and the resulting overlap and duplication REC was not too wide, an indication that there is
of functions of the RECs also act as stumbling much faster convergence in fiscal policy within the
blocks to the integration agenda. Fifth, Africa’s regions.
macroeconomic and financial environment is very However, there has been only very modest
weak. What is observed in most RECs are signifi- success in stimulating intra-regional trade due to
cant differences (both levels and volatility) in tariffs, factors that include:
inflation, exchange rates, debt-to-GDP ratios, rate
(a) lack of strong industrial capacity in member
of money growth and other vital macroeconomic
states to produce diversified goods for trade
variables between member countries. In addition,
within the region;
it is suggested that being mostly reliant on agri-
(b) many of the multiple national currencies in
culture and, for a subset, commodity exports, the
Africa lack convertibility;
intra-block trade shares – the traditional gauge
(c) efforts towards monetary, financial and physi-
of potential benefits from reduced exchange rate
cal integration have not yielded significant
volatility following the establishment of a monetary
results;
union – are comparatively small. For the same
(d) the cost of doing business in Africa is generally
reason, member states are subject to potentially
high due to infrastructure and service gaps,
large asymmetric shocks to their terms of trade,
as well as duplicative and cumbersome trade
which is the traditional indicator of the potential
procedures; and
costs of forming a monetary union (Ghosh, Guide
(e) the free movement of people objective remains
and Wolf, 2008). Nevertheless, there is persist-
largely unrealised.
ence and endurance of the economic integration
effort, possibly reflecting other (potential) benefits, Ghosh, Guide and Wolf (2008), provide a
such as progress towards policy credibility and broader analysis of macroeconomic indicators in
macroeconomic stability, as well as contributing three RECs, namely, CEMAC, WAEMU and West
to regional peace and security. A notable example African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), with a comparison
is the endurance of CEMAC and WAEMU, which made with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). It is
have lasted for approximately sixty years. concluded that, while the average growth perform-
In the UNECA (2008) analysis, the a priori as- ance has been respectable since the turn of the
sumption is that progress towards meeting macr- millennium in all the three unions, the difference
oeconomic convergence criteria could be a sign that between the best and worst performers continues
policy initiatives and coordination in the RECs are to be pronounced. Similar divergences are also
achieving the desired outcome. Inflation is used to apparent for terms of trade shocks. Overall, the
analyse convergence in monetary policy with the differences in changes in the terms of trade and
following results and conclusions: GDP growth are reflected in large divergences in
the current account and fiscal balances. With the
(a) the variability of inflation among SADC coun-
increase in oil prices in recent years, the CEMAC
tries has generally declined over time, signify-
and WAMZ experienced a doubling of growth rates
compared to the 1980s, while GDP growth in
6 The analysis focuses on selected RECs in Africa,
WAEMU has increased by a much lower rate (and
namely: SADC, COMESA, ECOWAS, CEMAC and
WAEMU. decreased in per capita terms). Moreover, the rise
22
AN OVERVIEW OF INITIATIVES TO PROMOTE CONVERGENCE IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL INTEGRATION: AN AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE
in growth rates in CEMAC and WAMZ, as in the pushed back. It is further observed that inadequate
GCC, was not accompanied by greater volatility in data and differences in important measurements
growth, pointing to the increased importance of and statistics adversely affect the determination of
shared external shocks. It is also indicated that, adherence to convergence criteria and, in the proc-
while there has been improvements in fiscal bal- ess, slows prospects for harmonisation of statistical
ances due to the fiscal benefits of increase in oil series in the various regions. Positively, however,
exports, the improvement in the current account the agenda for integration inherently focuses at-
has been muted; in contrast to the GCC, all the tention on higher performance standards with
three regions continue to run significant deficits respect to both institutions and policy, while there
as a ratio of GDP. is continuing market expansion and opportunities
Overall, it is considered that, while the slow for collaborative infrastructure development. Over
speed of convergence partly reflects exogenous time, these positive attributes are entrenched, help-
shocks, substantial improvement in adherence ing to sustain the development initiatives. In turn,
to convergence criteria will require significant the collaborative approach fosters international
policy actions, notably on the fiscal side, including support and technical assistance in enhancing
continued determined efforts at broadening and policy development, building institutions and fund-
diversifying the tax base (Ghosh, Guide and Wolf, ing infrastructure networks.
2008, p181). It is also noted that the slow pace of
economic convergence results in the pushing back
of target dates. For example, the 1987 ECOWAS REFERENCES
Monetary Cooperation Programme envisaged the Association of African Central Banks (2002). African
creation of a single monetary zone, but the target Monetary Cooperation Programme of the Association
of African Central Banks.
date was missed due to macroeconomic diver-
Burgess, R. (2009). “The Southern African Develop-
gences. Similarly, the target date for the completion
ment Community’s Macroeconomic Convergence
of the WAMZ was pushed back, first to July 2005 Programme: Initial Performance”, IMF Staff Position
and, subsequently, to December 2009, due to slow Note, June.
pace of the attainment of economic convergence Ghosh, A., Guide, A. and Wolf, H. (2008). “Monetary Union
criteria. The second stage union is now tentatively in Central and Western Africa, Journal of Financial
scheduled to follow in 2011. Transformation”, CAPCO Institute, Vol. 20.
Katoula, M. and Nshimyumuremyi, A. (2007). “Interna-
tional Comparison Programme for Africa – Towards
CONCLUSION Economic Convergence Measurement”, The African
Statistical Journal, Vol 4, May.
It appears that there is political ambition to achieve Mundell, R.A. (1961). “A Theory of Optimum Currency
regional integration in Africa as evidenced by plans Areas”, American Economic Review, 51, September.
and arrangements to establish economic and gov- Qobo, M. (2007). “The Challenges of Regional Integra-
ernance institutions towards the ultimate goal of tion in Africa in the Context of Globalisation and the
a monetary union. In this respect, the plans and Prospects for a United States of Africa”, The Institute
for Security Studies.
implementation monitoring within the RECs afford
some reasonable degree of institutional and cross- Southern African Development Community (2008). Com-
mittee of Central Bank Governors Payment System
country cooperation towards the common goals of Project.
enhanced intra-regional trade, policy coordination Southern African Development Community (2008). Free
and convergence of important macroeconomic indi- Trade Area Brochure, www.adc.org.
cators. These developments contribute to strength- United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (2008).
ening of policy credibility that would support higher Assessing Regional Integration in Africa.
levels of investment in the region. It is, neverthe-
less, clear that both economic/trade performance
and the development of regional institutions do
not match the aspirations of the AU programmes.
In particular, slow progress in enhancing factor
mobility and harmonisation of tariff structures
and weak administrative performance, as well as
infrastructure constraints limit the expansion of
intra-regional trade.
Moreover, while there is a tendency for mac-
roeconomic indicators to converge, there is slow
progress in meeting the actual set REC convergence
criteria in several African countries. In addition,
macroeconomic indicators for the continent are
particularly vulnerable to external developments,
for example, the performance of export markets for
major commodities. In the circumstances, the tar-
get dates for implementation programmes are often
23
K S MASALILA
APPENDIX
24
TABLE A1: MEMBERSHIP OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC COMMUNITIES
Arab Meghrab Common Market Community of Sa- East African Com- Economic Com- Economic Commu- Intergovernmental Southern African
Union for Eastern and hel-Saharan States munity munity of Central nity of West African Authority on Devel- Development Com-
Southern Africa African States States opment munity
AN OVERVIEW
public
Tunisia Egypt Comoros Tanzania Chad Gambia Sudan Madagascar
Eritrea Côte D`Ivoire DRC* Ghana Uganda Malawi
Ethiopia Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Guinea Mauritius
Kenya Egypt Gabon Guinea-Bissau Mozambique
Libya Eritrea Republic of Congo Liberia Namibia
Madagascar Gambia Rwanda Mali Seychelles
PROMOTE CONVERGENCE
Swaziland Libya
Uganda Mali
Zambia Mauritania
Zimbabwe Morocco
Niger
Nigeria
São Tomé and Princ-
ipe
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Somalia
Sudan
Togo
Tunisia
*Note: DRC = Democratc Republic of Congo
REGIONAL INTEGRATION: AN AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE
25
Bank of Botswana’s Short- INTRODUCTION
Empirically, it has been found that monetary policy2
term Inflation Forecasting affects macroeconomic variables, such as inflation
27
JAMES, L.V., MOKOTI, T.P., AND MOLALAPATA, I.
work for two reasons. First, they complement the the NTF model was designed to capture only these
medium-term projection model since their output channels and effectively reflects the imported com-
is used as initial or starting conditions for vari- ponents of the domestic inflation, as well as the
ables in the medium-term model. The use of the developments in the ZAR/BWP nominal exchange
output of short-term models as initial conditions rate. The model does not systematically capture
in medium-term models emanates from the fact other important transmission channels, such as
that what happens in the short-term forecast ho- domestic demand; and, as such, it is only part of
rizon is usually predetermined by past economic the Bank’s broader forecasting and policy analysis
developments; hence, the short-term forecasting system.
models are considered more suited to capturing The NTF model indicates that domestic inflation
the short-term dynamics of the data. Second, the is determined by its past level (reflecting inertia),
short-term forecasting models can also be used to change in the lagged and current values of the
forecast components of the consumer price index nominal exchange rate, lagged and current values
(CPI) in order to obtain a more detailed insight of South African inflation as well as the deviation of
into the individual sources of future inflationary the real exchange rate from its trend. The deviation
or disinflationary pressures. However, unlike the of the real exchange rate from its trend reduces to
medium-term macroeconomic model which has an zero in the long run, but it is a non-zero variable in
in-built policy rule, these short-term models do not the short term. This term is included to recognise
have any explicit policy analysis capability. the fact that in the short term, the system may not
The aim of this paper is to evaluate and docu- always be in equilibrium and the coefficient of this
ment the forecasting performance of the ARIMA term is intended to adjust the system to equilib-
and the VAR models against that of the near-term rium (error correction mechanism). When the real
forecasting (NTF) model. The three are simple, exchange rate is below its trend (i.e., representing
robust and parsimonious models that are used to the real depreciation of the Pula against the South
forecast annual inflation on a quarterly basis for African rand), the result is an upward pressure on
a short forecast horizon not exceeding a year, as domestic inflation and vice versa.
well as to identify other relevant information that The NTF model embodies the same design
the Bank monitors in pursuit of its inflation objec- philosophy as the core medium-term model,4 that
tive. The medium-term inflation objective of 3 – 6 dynamic adjustment occurs around a well defined
percent represents the Bank’s view of price stabil- equilibrium path or steady state solution. Therefore,
ity, which is the level of inflation that is consistent steady state solutions for four critical variables are
with sustainable long-run economic growth of the exogenously imposed on the NTF model. These are,
economy (2008 Monetary Policy Statement – Mid- changes in the nominal ZAR/BWP exchange rate,
term Review). This paper is based on a sample the real ZAR/BWP exchange rate, the South African
period of 1986 quarter one to 2008 quarter two. and domestic inflation rates. The basic principle is
A deliberate choice of a sample period for which to recognise the fact that since there are nominal
actual outcomes are available was made to enable rigidities in the economy, monetary policy can only
comparison of actual outcomes with the forecasts affect real variables in the short run, while long-run
from the models. The second section of this paper trends in real variables are largely outside its scope
provides background information on all the three (Handa, 2000:70). This principle is consistent with
short-term forecasting models, namely; the NTF, the vertical long-run Phillips curve theory and it is
VAR and ARIMA. The third section evaluates and referred to as the (super) neutrality condition.5 In
compares the forecasting performance of the three addition, the steady state solution paths ensure
models, while section four concludes. consistency between the inflation objective, the
exchange rate policy and the fundamentals of the
economy such as the real exchange rate apprecia-
THE SHORT-TERM FORECASTING MODELS tion trend, which is outside the scope of monetary
policy.
Near-Term Forecasting Model (NTF) The NTF model is also designed in such a way
The NTF is a single equation econometric model that the impact of other factors outside the model
designed to produce inflation projections over a (additional factors and/or expert information),
forecast period of a year. The model was built on such as the impact of adjustments to regulated
the basis of the observed transmission mechanism, prices or consumption taxes on price developments,
which indicates that imported inflation, specifically could be evaluated. Such effects enter the model
South African headline inflation, and the nominal exogenously. Any other development expected to
rand/Pula (ZAR/BWP) exchange rate are the most
direct and fastest of the transmission channels
4 Details about the core medium-term model are dis-
determining inflation in Botswana.3 As a result, cussed in the upcoming paper titled ‘Macroeconomic
Modelling at the Bank of Botswana.’
3 Botswana is a small open economy with imported 5 The super neutrality of money is said to exist if con-
tradeables representing 45.2 percent of the current tinuous changes in the money supply do not have any
Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket. real effects on the economy.
28
BANK OF BOTSWANA’S SHORT-TERM INFLATION FORECASTING MODELS
impact on inflation, but not directly captured by Since they are not based on any economic theory,
the model, is dealt with in a similar manner. In the models are also referred to as atheoretic mod-
short, the NTF forecast is augmented with informed els. The ARIMA approach to forecasting is based
judgement based on other tools, such as spread- on the following idea: the forecasts are generated
sheet forecasting of possible impacts on inflation from linear functions of the sample observations;
of changes in particular inflation determinants and the aim is to find the simplest model that can
not directly modelled. Furthermore, given that the replicate the observed data. ARIMA forecasts, like
NTF model has exogenous variables, it follows that those of the NTF and VAR models, are useful for
projections of such variables are necessary over the statistical determination of the near-term evolution
forecast period in order for the model to perform of inflation, an attribute that can be harnessed to
well. The exogenous variables are the nominal estimate data points that are not yet available for
ZAR/BWP exchange rate and the South African use in the medium-term model or in determining
headline inflation.6 the credibility of preliminary data.
The functional specification of the NTF model Each ARIMA process has three parts: the Au-
is as given in equation 1 below where (∏t-1 and ∏t) toregressive (AR), the Integrated (I), and the Moving
represents past and current levels of domestic infla- Average (MA) parts. The models are often written in
tion; (Et and Et-1), changes in the nominal exchange shorthand as ARIMA (p,d,q) where p, d and q repre-
rate, both contemporaneous and lagged; (∏*t and sents the AR, I and MA components, respectively.
∏*t- 1),South African headline inflation, both con-
temporaneous and lagged; as well as the past real (a) Autoregressive (AR) Stochastic Process
exchange rate trend (Ztndt-1). α1 – α14 represents esti- This part of the model describes how each observa-
mated parameters. The parameter (α1) is essentially tion is a function of the previous p observations.
an error correction coefficient which reduces to zero For example, if p = 1, then each observation is a
in the long run, but assumes a non-zero negative function of only one previous observation. That is,
value in the short-term. the model assumes the following structure;
∏t = –α1(∏t-1 + Et-1 – ∏*t-1 – Ztndt-1) + Yt = c + α1Yt-1 + µt (2)
α2∏t-1 + α3 Et + α4 Et-1 + α5∏*t + α6∏*t- where Yt is the observed value at time t, Yt-1 is the
+ ∏*sst – α7 ∏sst + ((α8) + (α9))E sst +
1 previous observed value at time t-1, µt is an uncor-
((α10) + (α11)) ∏*sst + α12D1 + α13D2 + α14 (1)
related random error term, α1 is the autoregressive
As highlighted earlier, one other key feature of coefficient and c is a constant. For such a model, Yt
the NTF model is that it is built around a number is said to follow a first-order autoregressive, or AR
of assumptions regarding equilibrium values of (1) stochastic process. If p > 1, the model will take
certain variables in the model. The assumptions the following form;
relate to the long-run values of four variables; Yt = c + α1Yt-1+ α2Yt-2 + .........................
namely, the changes in the nominal (∏sst) and real (3)
+ αpYt-p + µt
ZAR/BWP (∏sst + Esst + ∏*sst) exchange rate, as well
as South African (∏*sst) and domestic (∏sst) inflation and Yt would be said to follow a pth-order autore-
rates. D1 and D2 represent dummies to cater for the gressive, or AR (p) process. That is, the value of Y
structural break in the inflation series created by at time t depends on its value in the previous p
the introduction of Value Added Tax in 2002. time periods.
7 ARIMA processes are popularly known as Box-Jenkins 8 The important point to note is that in the Box-Jenkins
models because they were popularised by George Box methodology, there must either be a stationary time
and Gwilym Jenkins in the early 1970s. Box and series or a time series that is stationary after one or
Jenkins (1970) effectively put together in a compre- more differencing. Stationarity is a random process
hensive manner the relevant information required to whereby statistical properties of a given series do not
understand and use ARIMA processes. vary overtime.
29
JAMES, L.V., MOKOTI, T.P., AND MOLALAPATA, I.
to be differenced ‘d’ times to make it stationary, tests were used to get a consensus10 view on the
that time series is said to be integrated of order ‘d’ nature of the CPI series. All the tests showed that
and it is denotated I(d). In practice, a time series is the CPI series became stationary only after being
rarely integrated of order more than two and most differenced twice; hence, it was concluded that the
economic variables are I(1). CPI series over the sample period is I(2), meaning
it is integrated of order 2. The results were also
(c) Moving Average (MA) Stochastic Process found to be reliable, since the value of the Durbin-
This part of the model describes how an observation Watson statistic for the differenced CPI data was
is a function of the current and past error terms. around two, which, as a rule of thumb, indicates
For example, if q = 1, then each observation is a the absence of autocorrelation. Detailed results of
function of the current and previous error term. the tests are in Table 1 of Appendix 1.
That is, the model assumes the following form:
Yt = c + αo µ t + α1µt-1 (4) (b) Model Identification
After determining the correct order of integration
where c is a constant (mean of the series, Yt) and µ of the CPI series, the next step was to find an
is the white noise stochastic error term. Yt is equal appropriate ARIMA form to model the resultant
to a constant plus a moving average of the current stationary series. Following the Box and Jenkins
and past error terms. Thus, Y follows a first-order methodology, the key identification tools are the
moving average,9 or an MA (1), process. If q>1, the autocorrelation function (ACF), the partial auto-
model takes the general form: correlation function (PACF), and their resultant
Yt = c + αo µt + α1µt-1 + α2 µ t-2+ …………… correlograms, which are simply the plots of ACFs
+ αq µ t-q (5) and PACFs against an array of lag lengths. Table
2 of Appendix 1 shows the resultant correlograms
and Yt is an MA (q) process. In short, a moving
of the stationary CPI series. As indicated, autocor-
average is simply a linear combination of random
relations and partial autocorrelations at lags 1 are
error terms.
individually statistically significant since they are
Combining AR, I and MA parts gives the diverse
all outside the 95 percent confidence bounds. The
range of ARIMA models. A model can either fol-
statistically significant correlograms enable deter-
low an AR or an MA or ARMA process. An ARIMA
mination of the ARIMA pattern of the CPI series.
process is simply an ARMA process based on a
Based on the statistically significant lags, different
differenced series.
Data for the selected
sample period (i.e., 1986:1 Figure 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI)
FIGURE 1: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI)1986Q1
1986 Q1 TO 2008 Q2
to 2008 Q2
– 2008:2) revealed that the
price level followed an ARIMA 120
process in Botswana; hence, 110
an ARIMA model was built as
follows: 100
90
Index (Sept 2006 = 100)
Sep
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jun
sep
Sept
Sept
Sept
Sept
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
30
BANK OF BOTSWANA’S SHORT-TERM INFLATION FORECASTING MODELS
ARIMA models were built and statistical model fit There are, however, several different types of
measures, such as the Akaike Information Criterion VARs, namely: reduced form, recursive, struc-
(AIC) and Schwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC), were tural and vector error correction models. Under a
used to identify the best ARIMA model. Table 3 of reduced form VAR, each variable is expressed as
Appendix 1 gives the AIC and SBC results of the a linear function of its own past values, the past
various models, which indicate that an ARIMA (1, values of all other variables in the model, and a
2, 1) model was superior. The best model takes the serially uncorrelated error term. A recursive VAR,
following form: on the other hand, constructs the error terms in
each regression equation in such a way that they
D (CPI, 2) C AR (1) MA (1) (6)
are uncorrelated with the errors in the preceding
and it has the lowest AIC and SBC values, showing equations by including some contemporaneous
that it is the model with the smallest errors. Since values as regressors. As explained in Watson et al.
CPI is integrated of order 2, it is differenced twice to (2001:3), a structural VAR uses economic theory to
make it stationary before being estimated [D (CPI, sort out contemporaneous links between variables,
2)]. The resultant stationary CPI time series can be while a vector error correction model is simply a
modelled as an ARIMA (1, 2, 1) process. cointegrated system of a VAR model. However, this
paper focuses on the reduced form VAR, which is
(c) Model Diagnosis simply a statistical description of the data and,
It is imperative, according to Gujarati (2003:840), therefore, suitable for short-term forecasting.
to carry out a diagnostic test to check whether the Many variables affect inflation and are, in turn,
model provides a reasonable fit to the data. This affected by inflation. However, three economic vari-
was done and it was found that none of the auto- ables that were found to be highly correlated with
correlation and partial autocorrelation functions of inflation in Botswana have been identified and
the residuals from equation (6) were individually used to build a VAR model for short-term infla-
statistically significant. In other words, the cor- tion forecasting (see Table 5 of Appendix 2). In the
relograms of both the autocorrelation and partial VAR model, inflation is expressed as a function of
autocorrelation functions showed that the residuals its past value and the past values of the nominal
estimated in equation (6) are purely random and ZAR/BWP exchange rate and the nominal interest
small; hence, the model is considered satisfactory rate, as shown below:
and can be used to forecast inflation.
k k
Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model CPIt = α + ∑ β j CPI t− j + ∑ γ j SSAR t− j +
A VAR model is one of the most successful, flexible, j=1 j=1
31
JAMES, L.V., MOKOTI, T.P., AND MOLALAPATA, I.
Model Diagnosis tion of the realised outcomes, the NTF being the
A stability test, t-test and F-test were conducted best among the three models. The NTF model also
to check whether the estimated VAR model is a performs satisfactorily in terms of capturing the
reasonable fit to the data. The estimated VAR sys- major turning points in the inflation cycle, almost
tem was found to be stable12 and, therefore, could contemporaneously, whereas both the ARIMA
be used to produce reliable forecasts. The t-test and VAR models have a tendency to over-predict
revealed that all but two coefficients were statisti- inflation during peaks. This is due to the fact that
cally significant. However, the F-test, a measure of forecasts generated by ARIMA and VAR models are
the overall significance of the model, indicated that projections of the last observed values hence when
the model is good and can be used for forecasting. turning points occur; the extrapolative projection
This is because the value of the calculated F-sta- always forecast them with a lag (Fildes, R., and
tistic far exceeded that of the Stekler, H.O., 1999:15).
critical value, an indication
that, overall, the estimated FIGURE 2: IN-SAMPLE INFLATION FORECASTS BY THE NTF MODEL COMPARED TO ACTUAL
coefficients were significantly FigureTO2:2008Q2)
OUTCOMES (1987Q1 In-Sample Inflation Forecasts by the NTF Model compared to
different from zero (see Table 5 Actual Outcomes (1987Q1 to 2008Q2)
20
in Appendix 1 for details).
18
NTF
3. THE PERFORMANCE OF 16
ACTUAL
SHORT-TERM FORECAST-
ING MODELS
14
Percent
32
BANK OF BOTSWANA’S SHORT-TERM INFLATION FORECASTING MODELS
FIQURE 4: IN-SAMPLE
FiqureINFLATION FORECASTS
4: In-Sample InflationBY THE ARIMA
Forecasts by the ARIMA
MODEL TO ACTUAL
model compared
COMPARED to where f is the forecast, y is the
OUTCOMES (1987Q1 TO 2008Q2)Actual Outcomes (1987Q1 to 2008Q2) observed value and T is the
20 number of observations.
Table 4 details the per-
18 formance of the individual
ACTUAL models based on measures of
16 ARIMA the MAE, RMSE and Theil U
statistic. Based on the Theil U
14
statistic, the NTF model has
Percent
33
JAMES, L.V., MOKOTI, T.P., AND MOLALAPATA, I.
As in the in-sample forecast horizon, the NTF forecasting model of all the three models reviewed.
model outperforms the rest of the models in the out- The model performs well in both the in-sample and
of-sample forecast horizon, followed by the VAR and out-of-sample forecast horizons, emerging first,
ARIMA models, respectively. It has smaller values ahead of the VAR in both forecast horizons. In ad-
of the MAE, RMSE and Theil U statistic measures dition, the NTF outperformed the other models in
compared to the other models. Table 5 below details terms of capturing the major turning points in infla-
the performance of the three models. tion in both the in-sample and out-of-sample fore-
cast horizons. However, the VAR and ARIMA models
remain useful additions to the set of models used
TABLE 5
in analysing and forecasting inflation in Botswana.
Model MAE RMSE Theil U Since the two models perform better in a very short
NTF 0.875 0.877 0.028 forecast horizon, they can be used to forecast only
VAR 1.217 1.373 0.060
one period (i.e., a month or a quarter) out-of-sample
to maximize their effectiveness. Furthermore, the
ARIMA 2.455 2.785 0.107
performance of the VAR model could be improved
so with a considerable lag. OUTCOMES (2008Q3 TO 2009Q2) Actual Outcomes (2008Q3 to 2009Q2)
Overall, the NTF is the best 20
model in terms of the-out-of
sample forecast performance, 18
followed by the VAR and ARI- ACTUAL
MA models, in that order. The 16 VAR
statistical measures indicated
in Table 5 above confirm the 14
superiority of the NTF over the
Percent
10
CONCLUSION
The aim of this paper was to 8
evaluate and document the
forecasting performance of the 6
three short-term forecasting
models used by the Bank of
4
Botswana. It was found that 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2
the NTF is the best short-term
34
BANK OF BOTSWANA’S SHORT-TERM INFLATION FORECASTING MODELS
18 ACTUAL
ARIMA
16
14
Percent
12
10
4
2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2
REFERENCES
Box, G.E.P. and Jenkins, G.M. (1970) ‘Time Series Kumah, Y.F. (2006) ‘The Role of Seasonality and Monetary
Analysis: Forecasting and Control’, Holden Day, San Policy in Inflation Forecasting’, Working Paper, IMF.
Francisco. MacDonald R. and Marsh, I. (1999) ‘Exchange Rate Model-
Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A. (1979) ‘Distribution of the ling’, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands.
Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Makridakis, M.H. and Hibon, M. (1997) ‘ARMA Models
Root’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, and the Box-Jenkins Methodology’, Journal of Fore-
pages 74, 427-431. casting, Volume 16, Issue 3, Pages 147 – 163, John
Durbin, J. and Watson, G.S. (1951) ‘Testing for Serial Cor- Willey and Sons, Ltd.
relation in Least Squares Regression, II.’ Biometrika Meyler, A. et.al. (1998) ‘Forecasting Irish Inflation using
38, 159 – 179. ARIMA Models’, Technical Paper, Central Bank of
Federal Reserve Board, ‘Frequently Asked Questions Ireland.
– Monetary Policy’, Available: (http://www.federalre- Mohohlo, L.K. (2008) ‘Monetary Policy Statement-2008’,
serve.gov/generalinfo/faq/faqmpo.htm). Bank of Botswana, Available: http://www.bankof-
Fildes, R. and Stekler, H.O. (1999)’ The State of Macr- botswana.bw
oeconomic Forecasting’, The LUMS Working Papers Mohohlo, L.K. (2008) ‘2008 Monetary Policy Statement-
Series, Lancaster LA1 4YX, UK. [Online], Available: Mid-Term Review’, Bank of Botswana, Available:
http://www.lums.lancs.ac.uk/. http://www.bankofbotswana.bw
Gujarati, D.N. (2003) ‘Basic Econometrics’, 4th Edition, Phillips, P. and Perron, P. (1988) ‘Testing for a Unit Root in
McGraw-Hill, New York. Time Series Regression’, Biometrika, 75, 335-346.
Handa, J. (2000) ‘Monetary Economics’, 1st Edition, Robinson, W. (1998) ‘Forecasting Inflation using VAR
Routledge, 11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE. Analysis’, Working Paper, Bank of Jamaica.
Hector, A. and Vale, S. (2002) ‘Inflation Forecasting with Schaler, J. et.al. (2002) ‘Forecasting Austrian HICP and its
ARIMA and Vector Autoregressive Models in Guate- Components using VAR and ARIMA Models’, Working
mala’, Working Paper, Bank De Guatemala. Paper 732,Oesterreichische National Bank.
Ilmolelran, P. (2005) ‘The Determinants of the Harare Serju, P. (2002) ‘Monetary Conditions and Core Inflation:
Stock Exchange (HSE) Market Capitalisation’, Avail- An Application of Neural Networks’, Working Paper,
able: http://mpra.ub.uni- muenchen.de/1418/. Bank of Jamaica.
35
JAMES, L.V., MOKOTI, T.P., AND MOLALAPATA, I.
Table 1 shows that the CPI series is not stationary must be noted that although the model specifica-
in both levels and first differences until it is differ- tion procedure is mechanical, personal judgement
enced twice. That is, the CPI series is integrated of is still required in making a good model choice.
order two, I(2). In both tests we fail to reject the null Table 2 depicts an ARIMA process as indicated by
hypothesis at levels and first differences because the wavy decay in both the ACF and PACs.
the critical values are greater than the calculated T
statistics. All decisions are taken at the 95 percent
TABLE 3: MODEL SELECTION USING THE AKAIKE (AIC) AND
confidence level.
BAYESIAN (SBC) CRITERIA.
Table 2 shows the autocorrelation (AC) and partial TABLE 5: RESULTS OF THE VAR MODEL
autocorrelation (PAC) functions used to identify
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-Statistic
an appropriate model. An appropriate model is
c 0.026 0.046 0.560
identified on the basis of the patterns of its auto-
log(cpi(-1)) 1.475 0.112 13.187
correlation and partial autocorrelation functions.
log(cpi(-2)) –0.478 0.111 –1.584
A correlogram, which is a plot of the AC and PAC is(-1) –0.001 0.002 –0.611
functions, is used to show the patterns of the two is(-2) 0.001 0.002 0.688
functions. The different patterns are characteristic log(ssar(-1)) –0.055 0.035 1.585
of the AR, MA and ARMA processes. For an AR proc- log(ssar(-2)) 0.054 0.035 1.546
ess, the AC function gradually decays to zero as the
number of lags increase, whereas the PAC function Adj. R-squared 0.99
drops to zero (i.e., falls within the dotted boundary Sum sq.resids 0.004
S.E. equation 0.007
line which represents the 95 percent confidence
F-Statistic 100742.2
interval) abruptly after just a few lags, most com-
F-Statistic Critical 2.76
monly after one or two lags. For a MA process, the
Akaike AIC –6.985
AC function drops to zero abruptly after just a few Schwartz SIC –6.788
lags, whereas the PAC function gradually decays to
zero as the number of lags increase. In an ARMA
process, both the AC and PAC functions gradually
decay to zero as the number of lags increase. It
36
BANK OF BOTSWANA’S SHORT-TERM INFLATION FORECASTING MODELS
Root Modulus
0.995565 0.995565
0.916215 – 0.054395i 0.917829
0.916215 + 0.054395i 0.917829
0.419688 – 0.179208i 0.456348
0.419688 + 0.179208i 0.456348
0.187710 0.187710
37