Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Macroeconomics Notes
Peter C. May
University of Oxford
Worcester College
June 2009
-2- Peter C. May
- Content -
Assumptions:
- $ infinite ! SRAS horizontal
- CF(r#r*): infinitely elastic
Result:
- International capital flows are so great as to ensure that r=r*
- NX equals the difference between saving and investment [I(r*)] at the world interest
rate r* [eq. 1]
- Exchange rate floats freely to reach its equilibrium level
! Because every transaction has a buyer and seller, every ! of expenditure on any output
worth ! by a buyer must become a ! of income for the seller
- Illustrates the flows between firms and households in a closed economy that produces
one good from one input
o Inner loop = flow of labour and goods
! Households sell their labour to firms
! Firms sell their goods to households
o Outer loop = flow of money
! Households pay firms for the goods
! Firms pay households for the labour + profits
-6- Peter C. May
Income
Labour
Households Firms
Goods
Expenditure
- Stock = quantity measured at a given point in time (e.g. wealth, number of unemployed)
- Flow = quantity measured per unit of time (e.g. income, number of people losing jobs)
Definition: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the market value of all final goods and services
produced within the geographic boundaries of an economy in a given period of time
1. Market prices: To compute the total value of different goods and services, the national
income accounts use market prices because these prices reflect how much people are
willing to pay for a good or service
2. Used goods: Sale of used goods (i.e. second-hand goods) is not included as part of
GDP, as it merely reflects the transfer of an asset, not an addition to the economy’s
income
3. Inventories: When a firm increases its inventory of (durable) goods, the investment is
inventory is counted as an expenditure by the firm’s owners [BUT: a sale out of
inventory is a combination of positive spending (the purchase) and negative spending
(inventory disinvestment), so it does not influence GDP]
4. Intermediate goods & value-added: GDP includes only the value of final goods;
measured by computing the value added at each stage of production (to avoid double
counting)
5. Imputed values: Some goods or services do not have a market prices, so the values
must be estimated through imputations; e.g. housing services:
o GDP includes rent if people rent a house from a landlord
o If people live in their own house, national statistical agencies estimate the rent
homeowners would pay themselves and include that imputed rent as part of
GDP
Peter C. May -7-
3. Net exports
-8- Peter C. May
Y = C + I + G + NX
- C = Consumption
+ Household final consumption expenditure
+ Final consumption expenditure of NPISH
- I = Investment
+ Business fixed investment
+ Residential fixed investment
+ Inventory investment
- G = Government purchases
+ General government consumption
+ General government fixed investment
- NX = Net exports
+ Exports – Imports
+ Net tourism
Note on investment:
- General rule: economy’s investment does not include purchases that merely
reallocate existing assets among different individuals (e.g. only building a new
house, not buying an existing one)
- Investment has to create new capital (e.g. company selling shares to public to
build new plant, not transaction of shares between individuals)
- Difference between investment and capital:
o Capital is one of the factors of production [At any given moment, the
economy has a certain overall stock of capital]
o Investment is spending on new capital
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): measures the total income produced domestically
(within the geographic boundaries of the country)
- Gross National Product (GNP): measures the total income produced by nationals
(residents of a nation)
• GNP = GDP + factor payments from abroad # factor payments to abroad
- Net National Product (NNP): GNP # Depreciation
• Depreciation = consumption of fixed capital
- Seasonal adjustments: take into account the predictable seasonal fluctuations (e.g.
lower GDP in winter due to less building activity, little agriculture etc.)
Peter C. May -9-
- Subjective question: Is it better for a country to have bigger GDP than GNP or vice versa?
• Better to have GNP > GDP ! means nation’s income is greater than the value
of what it is producing domestically
• If, instead, GDP > GNP, then a portion of the income generated in the country
is going to people in other countries ! less income left for domestic citizens
- 3 key differences:
1. Measures the prices of all goods and 1. Measures the prices of only the goods
services produced [i.e. includes prices and services bought by consumers [i.e.
of capital goods] excludes prices of capital goods]
2. Only takes into account those goods 2. Includes the prices of imported goods
that are produced domestically
ptq t ptq 0
"p q "p q
0 t 0 0
! !
- 10 - Peter C. May
- Laspeyres Index: Price index with a fixed basket of goods (e.g. CPI) % tends to
overstate increase in cost of living
• Ignores consumers’ ability to substitute to relatively less expensive goods
- Paasche Index: Price index with a changing basked of goods (e.g. GDP deflator) %
tends to understate increase in cost of living
• Includes substitution, but does not show that higher prices of goods from which
consumers substitute away make them worse off
- Fisher Index: Average of Paasche (GDP deflator) and Laspeyres (CPI) index
- Arguments:
1. Substitution bias % does not take into account that consumers have the
opportunity to substitute less expensive goods for more expensive goods
2. Introduction of new goods % does not reflect increase in utility from
greater choice
3. Unmeasured changes in quality % Quality improvements increase the
purchasing power of a unit of currency, but they are often not fully measured
- Unemployment Rate: measures the percentage of those people wanting to work, but
who do not have a job
- 2 measures:
1. Claimant Count:
! Counting the number of people who, on any given day, are claiming
unemployment benefits form the government
! BUT problem: subject to changes in the rules the government applies for
eligibility of unemployment benefits
Peter C. May - 11 -
No. of Unemployed
Unemployment Rate = " 100
Labour force
SUMMARY:
1. How much do the firms in the economy produce? What determines a national
income?
2. Who gets the income from production? How much goes to compensate workers,
and how much goes to compensate owners of capital?
3. Who buys the output of the economy? How much do households purchase for
consumption, how much do households and firms purchase for investment, and
how much does the government buy for public purposes?
4. What equilibrates the demand for and supply of goods and services? What ensures
that desired spending on consumption, investment and government purchases
equals the level of production?
Private saving
Financial markets
Investment
Public saving
Government
purchases
! Assumptions:
a. Fixed amounts of capital and labour: K=K " and L=L
"
b. Factors of production are fully utilized
2. Production function
• Reflects available technology for turning capital and labour into output
[altered by technology]
• Y = F(K, L)
• Constant returns to scale: zY = F(zK, zL) % increase of an equal percentage in
all factors of production causes an increase in output of the same percentage
Y = F(K
" ,L
") = Y
" % Output is fixed at Y
"
- Factor prices = amounts paid to the factors of production (e.g. wage, interest, rent)
• Wage (W) is the factor price of labour
• Rental rate (R) is the factor price of capital
FACTOR PRICE
Factor supply
Equilibrium
factor price
p*
Factor demand
Q* QUANTITY OF FACTOR
- 14 - Peter C. May
- Assumptions:
1. Firm behaves competitively
• Small relative to market
• Little/no influence on market price % price taker
• Cannot influence wages/rent
! Firm’s production function: Y = F(K, L)
2. Goal: Profit-maximization
• Profit = Revenue # Costs
• ( = P"Y # W"L # R"K = P"F(K, L) # W"L #R"K
- Marginal Product of Labour (MPL) = extra amount of output the firm gets from one
extra unit of labour, holding the amount of capital fixed
"Y
• MPL = or MPL = F(K, L +1) - F(K, L)
"L
- Diminishing marginal product: Holding the amount of one/all other input(s) fixed,
! the marginal product of the variable factor of production falls as its quantity increases
• )L while holding K fixed ! fewer machines per worker ! *productivity
Rule: If the production function has constant returns to scale, and each
factor of production is paid its marginal product, economic profits must be 0!
- HENCE: Total output is completely divided between the payments to capital and the
payments to labour, depending on their marginal productivities
- Fact: division of NY between capital & labour has been roughly constant over a long
period of time (labour share: ~70%, capital share: ~30%)
F(K, L) = A " K # " L1-#
$F Y
MPL = = (1- #) " A " K # " L-# = (1- #) "
$L L
$F Y
MPK = = # " A " K #%1 " L1-# = # "
$K K
Y Y
= average labour productivty, = average capital productivity
L K
!
- 16 - Peter C. May
Rule: There exists a close link between average labour productivity (APL), marginal
labour productivity (MPL) and the real wage (W/P) ! W/P=MPL=(1-$)"APL
- Scenario: A major natural disaster destroys a large part of a country's capital stock but
miraculously does not cause anybody bodily harm
• Result: If a large part of the capital stock is destroyed, then there will be less
capital per worker, which means the MPL will be lower and the real wage, too!
Closed Economy: Y = C + I + G
- Households receive income from their labour and their ownership of capital, pay taxes
to the government and then decide how much of their after-tax income to consume and
how much to save
CONSUMPTION, C Consumption
! function
Slope: MPC
- Types of investment
• Firms buy investment/capital goods to add to their stock of capital and to
replace existing capitals as it wears out (depreciation)
• Households buy new houses
- Quantity of investment goods depends on the interest rate, which measures the cost of
the funds used to finance investment
- Profitable investment: When Return (revenue from increased future production) >
Costs (payments for borrowed funds)
- Investment function: Investment is a negative function of the real interest rate: I=I(r)
QUANTITY OF INVESTMENT, I
- Transfer payments are not made in exchange for some of the economy’s output of
goods or services, they merely reallocate income % not included in the variable G
• HENCE: definition of T: taxes # transfer payments
• In simple model: G & T = exogenous variables % G=G " and T=T "
! Assumes T % lump-sum tax
! More sophisticated model: T=tY, where t is the tax rate
- 18 - Peter C. May
3-4. WHAT BRINGS SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR GOODS AND SERVICES INTO EQUILIBRIUM?
- In classical model, the interest rate is the price that has the crucial role of equilibrating
supply and demand
- Summary of equations
Y = C +I + G
C = C(Y - T)
I = I(r)
G=G
T=T
Y = F(K, L) = Y
- Combining the equations:
Y = C(Y - T) +I(r) + G
!
! Interest rate (r) is the only variable that is not already determined
- Meaning of equation: Supply of output (fixed) equals its demand, which is the sum of consumption
!
(fixed), investment (variable) and government purchases (fixed)
Rule: At the equilibrium interest rate, the demand for goods and
services equals the supply in an economy
- National saving (S): Output that remains after the demands of consumers and the
government have been satisfied
• S=Y#C#G
• Consists of
! Private saving: (Y#T#C)
! Public saving: (T#G)
Peter C. May - 19 -
r*
Investment
function, I(r)
Rule: At the equilibrium interest rate, households’ desire to save balances firms’
desire to invest, and the quantity of loanable funds supplied equals the quantity
demanded!
r S2 S1
1. A fall in saving (caused by
1 lower public savings) by 'G
[consumption unchanged
because Y-T unchanged]
r2 2. Causes an increase in the real
interest rate
2 3. And thus a fall in investment
r1 I(r) by the initial 'G [Y
unchanged]
I, S
3
- 20 - Peter C. May
r S2 S1
1 1. A fall in saving (caused by
lower private savings) by
r2 'T"MPC
2. Causes an increase in the real
2 interest rate
3. And thus a fall in investment
r1 I(r) by the initial 'T"MPC [Y
unchanged]
I, S
3
r S
1. An increase in investment demand
2. Raises the interest rate
3. BUT: the equilibrium amount of
r2 investment is unchanged!
2 I2
r1 I1
1
3 I, S
Peter C. May - 21 -
B) Allow consumption (-ve) and saving (+ve) to depend on the interest rate
r S
1. An increase in desired
investment
2. Raises the real interest rate
r2 3. And raises equilibrium
investment and saving
2 I2
r1
I1
1
S1 S2 I, S
3
3-5. CONCLUSION
1) Ignored the role of money, the asset with which goods and services are bought
and sold
2) No trade with other countries
3) No unemployment (labour force is fully employed)
4) Capital stock, labour force and production technology are fixed
5) Ignored the role of short-run sticky prices
- Why the labour share of income is (1-$) for a Cobb-Douglas production function:
Y = AK "L1-"
#Y Y
1) MPL = = AK "L-" (1- ") = (1- ")
#L L
2) $ = P % Y(K, L) - WL - RK
#$
= P % MPL - W = 0
#L
W
& MPL =
P
W Y W L
HENCE (combining 1 and 2) : = (1- ") & Real labour share of income : % = (1- ")
P L P Y
Y W WL
OR : MPL = (1- ") = , so that = 1- "
L P PY
!
- 22 - Peter C. May
SUMMARY:
- Definitions:
• Inflation: Overall increase in price level OR decrease in the value of money
• Hyperinflation: Extraordinary high inflation (>50% per month), e.g. Germany
in 1923
• Hume (1752): Money = Oil which renders the motion of the wheels of trade
more smooth and easy
- 3 functions of money:
1) Store of value % way to transfer purchasing power from present to future
2) Unit of account % provides the terms in which prices are quoted and debts are
recorded
3) Medium of exchange % used to buy goods and services
- Liquidity: Ease with which money is converted into other things – goods and services
- Barter economy (without money) requires double coincidence of wants: the unlikely
happenstance of two people each having a good that the other wants at the right time
and place to make an exchange % permits only simple transactions
- 2 types of money:
1) Commodity money: Money with some intrinsic value (e.g. gold standard)
2) Fiat money: Money that has no intrinsic value (e.g. notes) ! Use of money is a
social convention: everyone values fiat money because they expect everyone else
to value it
- Central bank: Institution controlling the money supply through monetary policy
• Major central banks:
! Euro Area: ECB % Governing Council
! UK: Bank of England % Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)
! US: Federal Reserve % Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
• Open-market operations: Primary way in which central bank controls the
supply of money
! If CB wants to )M it ‘creates’ money and uses it purchase government
bonds from the public (the people) [government bonds + money!]
! If CB wants to *M it sells government bonds from its portfolio and thus
‘destroys’ money
- 2 components:
1) Currency: sum of outstanding paper money and coins
! BUT: Debit and credit cards or cheques are not counted as money –
they are merely a way of transferring money between bank accounts
2) Demand deposits: balances in bank accounts that depositors can access on
demand (simply by using their debit card/cheque)
- Definition used in the book: Money stock = currency + all deposits in banks and other
financial institutions that can be readily accessed and used to buy goods and services
• Currency comprises only a small proportion of the overall money stock!
!
Peter C. May - 25 -
- Meaning of terms:
• M = Quantity of money
• V = Income velocity of money
! Measures the rate at which money circulates in the economy %
number of times a given unit of money enters someone’s income in a
given period of time
• P = Price of a typical transaction % price level
• Y = Total output
! Initially T = number of transactions, BUT difficult to measure!
! Quantity equation is an identity: the definitions of the 4 variables make it always true!
- Real money balances (M/P): Quantity of goods and services money can buy
• HENCE a measurement of the purchasing power of the stock of money
! If )M or *P % )purchasing power
! If *M or )P % *purchasing power
- Money demand function: Equation that shows the determinants of the quantity of real
money balances people wish to hold:
• Simple money demand function: quantity of real money balances demanded is
(only) proportional to real income
(M/P)d = k " Y
where k = how much money people want to hold for every unit of income
- Derivation
! of quantity equation from money demand function:
Money demand = Money supply
k " Y = M/P
M " (1/k) = P " Y
M " V = P " Y, where V = 1/k
- If we assume that the income velocity is constant [V changes only when money demand
changes, e.g. introduction of ATMs % lower average money holdings % *k % )V]:
M"V=P"Y
M #P " Y
!
- 26 - Peter C. May
Rule: If V is fixed, the quantity of money (M) determines the monetary value
of the economy’s output (i.e. in terms of !/$)!
- 3 building blocks:
1) Y=F(K, L): factors of production and production technology determine the level
of output Y
2) M "P"Y: Money supply determines the nominal value of output
3) P=PY/Y: The price Level is the ratio of the nominal value of output (PY) to real
output (Y)
!
- Quantity theory: The quantity theory implies that the price level is proportional to the
money supply
• Y already fixed by production function [Y" =F(K ", L
" )]
M "P
- Quantity
! equation in percentage terms:
% change in M + % change in V = % change in P + % change Y
1) % change in M: controlled by central bank
2) % change in V: 0, since V assumed constant
! 3) % change in P: ( (inflation rate)
4) % change in Y: 0 (assume no growth) or g (constant if steady growth)
- HENCE:
%" M = # + g (where g constant)
Rule: The quantity theory of money states that the central bank, which controls
the money supply, has ultimate control over the rate of inflation:
• If the CB keeps the money supply stable, the price level will be stable
• If-the CB increases the money supply rapidly, the price level will rise
rapidly
! Friedman: “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”
[works in the long-run, but not in the short-run (V variable)]
BUT problems: Is the velocity reliably stable & how to control money supply?
Peter C. May - 27 -
- BUT Keynes: “superficial advantages” of relying on inflation tax as the major source of
government revenue
• This is because the inflation caused by printing money also affects the real value
of the seignorage revenue, so that the government has to print more and more
money to maintain its spending, and so inflation spirals higher and higher %
hyperinflation
• RESULT: decreasing importance of seigniorage (~0.5% of GDP)
- Interest rate: The market price at which resources are transferred between the present
and the future AND the return to saving and the cost of borrowing
- 2 interest rates:
1) Nominal interest rate (i): Actual interest rate paid by debtor to creditor;
opportunity cost of holding money
2) Real interest rate (r): Increase in purchasing power of creditor (inflation
adjusted)
4-5. THE NOMINAL INTEREST RATE AND THE DEMAND FOR MONEY
- Quantity Theory of Money assumes that the demand for real money balances depends
only on real income Y
• BUT another determinant of money demand: nominal interest rate
• Nominal interest rate i = opportunity cost of holding money (instead of bonds
or other interest-earning assets)
! Hence, )i ! * in money demand.
- Cost of holding money: Sum of foregone real interests (r) & expected inflation rate ((e)
• HENCE: modified demand for real money balances
- + - - +
(M/P)d = L(i , Y ) = L(r + " e , Y )
- More sophisticated story about the determination of the price level than the quantity
theory, which assumes that demand for real money balances is independent of NIR
•! Quantity theory: if the nominal interest rate and the level of output are held
constant, the price level moves proportionately with the money supply
• BUT nominal interest rate not constant: it depends on expected inflation, which
in turn depends on growth in the money supply
! If )M % )(e % )i % *(M/P)d % *k % )V
! Additional channel through which the money supply affects the price level!
(blue line; ignored by quantity theory!)
Money Supply
Money Demand
Peter C. May - 29 -
!
4-6. THE SOCIAL COSTS OF INFLATION
- According to the classical theory of money, a change in the overall price level is like a
change in the units of measurement
• Economic well-being depends on relative prices, not the overall price level
• Differentiate between:
1. Expected inflation
2. Unexpected inflation
d) Tax distortion: Taxes often do not take into account effects of inflation
e) General inconvenience of living in a world with changing price level % need
to correct for inflation, complicating financial planning
4-7. HYPERINFLATION
- Causes:
• Excessive growth in money supply
! Caused by money printing due to inadequate government tax revenue
and inability to borrow due to low credit ratings (unable to raise revenue
from options 1 and 2)
! Inadequate tax revenue % Rapid money creation % Hyperinflation %
Larger budget deficit (because of the delay in collecting tax payments,
real tax revenue falls) % Even more rapid money creation
- To end hyperinflation, governments need fiscal reforms to eliminate need for seigniorage
SUMMARY:
Rule:
! 1) If output exceeds domestic spending, we export the difference: net exports
are positive
2) If output falls short of domestic spending, we import the difference: net
exports are negative
Y = C +I + G + NX
Y - C - G = I + NX
S = I + NX
or S - I = NX
- HENCE: An economy’s net exports must always equal the difference between its
savings and investments
!
• Another name for exports: trade balance
• S#I % net capital outflow: domestic purchases of foreign assets minus foreign
purchases of domestic assets
Peter C. May - 33 -
- Trade balance:
• If S#I = 0 (or S=I) % Balanced trade
• If S#I > 0 (or S>I) % Trade surplus ! country is a net lender
• If S#I < 0 (or S<I) % Trade deficit ! country is a net borrower
Rule: The national income accounts identity shows that the international flow of funds to
finance capital accumulation and the international flow of gs are two sides of the same coin!
! A country with a trade surplus is a net lender internationally; its residents are lending more
to foreigners than foreigners are lending its residents. HENCE: it is a net acquirer of foreign
assets (+ve net capital outflow)
- Definitions:
GDP = C +I + G + NX
GNP = GDP + factor payments from abroad - factor payments to abroad
= GDP + net factor income from abroad (NFIA)
- Unilateral transfers = payments (or goods and services rendered) for which nothing in
! return is recorded in the national accounts (e.g. foreign aid payments)
- Current Account Balance = Net exports + net factor income from abroad + net
unilateral transfers
• HENCE: It is possible to have 0 or even positive current account balance, but a
negative trade balance
- NOT assume that the real interest rate (r) equilibrates saving and investment, RATHER
allow the economy to run a trade surplus and lend to other countries or run a trade
deficient and borrow from other countries
- Assumptions:
• Small = small part of the world market % cannot influence the world real
interest rate r*
! World economy is a closed economy, so the equilibrium of world saving
and world investment determines the world interest rate
• Perfect capital mobility: full access to world financial markets; ensures r = r*
- Model:
1) Economy’s output fixed by factors of production
Y = F(K, L) = Y
2) Consumption is positively related to disposable income
C = C(Y - T)
! 3) Investment is negatively related to the real interest rate
I = I(r)
!
- HENCE:
! NX = S - I
NX = Y - C(Y - T) - G - I(r*)
" NX = S - I(r*)
- From the equation above we can see that the trade balance (NX) depends on those
variables that determine saving and investment
! • Fiscal policy: G, T
• World real interest rate: r*
Rule: The trade balance is determined by the difference between saving and investment
at the world real interest rate! [I/S-r space diagram shows whether trade surplus/deficit,
whereas NX-, space diagram shows corresponding change in ,]
r
S - r* = world interest rate
- rc = interest rate if economy
were closed
NX(+) If interest rate is determined by world
r*
financial markets, the difference
between saving and investment
determines the trade balance!
rc I(r)
The exogenous world interest rate (r*)
determines the country’s level of
investment & thus net exports
I(r*) S I, S
Peter C. May - 35 -
r S2 S1
1. The economy begins with
2 balanced trade
2. But when a fiscal expansion
reduces saving
3. A trade deficit results
1
r* I(r)
NX(#)
3
S2 I(r*) I, S
- HENCE: starting from balanced trade, a change in fiscal policies that reduces national
saving leads to a trade deficit
r S1
1. An increase in the world
2 interest rate
2. Reduces investment and leads
NX(+) to a trade surplus
r*2
1
r*1 I(r)
I(r*2) S I, S
- HENCE: starting from balanced trade, an increase in the world interest rate due to a
fiscal expansion abroad leads to a trade surplus
- 36 - Peter C. May
NX(#)
r* I2
I1
1
S I(r*) I, S
- HENCE: starting form balanced trade, an outward shift in the investment schedule
causes a trade deficit
- BUT: one cannot judge economic performance form the trade balance alone, instead
one must look at the underlying causes of international flows
- Twin deficit: Government budget deficit and trade deficit at the same time
• Budget deficit % Low public saving % Low national saving % NX=S#I < 0 %
Trade deficit
!
Peter C. May - 37 -
- BUT:
• Developing countries have a lower parameter A (technology) because of
! Less access to advanced technologies
! Lower levels of education (or human capital)
! Less efficient economic policies
• Property rights are often not enforced in developing countries
- Exchange Rate: Price at which residents of two countries trade with each other
- Nominal Exchange Rate (NER): Relative price of the currency of two countries; two
ways to express NER
a) As the foreign price of domestic currency (OR: foreign currency per unit of
domestic currency) e.g. for Germany NER to UK: 0.9£ per ! [more common!]
b) As the domestic price of foreign currency (OR: domestic currency per unit of
foreign currency) e.g. for Germany NER to UK: 1.1£ per !
- Real Exchange Rate (RER): Relative price of goods of 2 countries % terms of trade
• Real exchange rate measures amount of purchasing power in foreign country
that must be sacrificed for each unit of purchasing power in domestic country
• Terms on which domestic goods can be traded for foreign goods
• Example:
! Japanese car: 2,800,000 yen, French car: 10,000!; NER: 140 yen/!
! HENCE: France RER to Japan % 0.5"(Japanese Car/French Car)
! In order to buy a French car, a Japanese citizen has to give up 0.5 of the
purchasing power he has to give up in Japan for buying a Japanese car
Real Exchange Rate = Nominal Exchange Rate " Ratio of Price Levels
Pd
# = e "
Pf
!
- 38 - Peter C. May
Rule:
1) If the real exchange rate is high (>1), foreign goods are relatively cheap and
domestic goods relatively expensive (high Pd, low Pf)
2) If the real exchange rate is low(<1), foreign goods are relatively expensive
and domestic goods relatively cheap (low Pd, high Pf)
- In the real world: We can think of " as the relative price of a basket of domestic goods in
terms of a basket of foreign goods
- In our macro model: There’s just one good, “output” ! " is the relative price of one
country’s output in terms of the other country’s output
- Net exports are a function (negative relationship) of the real exchange rate
• NX = NX(,)
#ve 0 +ve NX
- Real exchange rate is related to NX % when *,, )NX and when ),, *NX
- NX = Net Capital Outflow = S#I
• Saving is fixed by the consumption function and government fiscal policy
• Investment is fixed by the investment function and the world interest rate
- NX is actually the net demand for dollars: foreign demand for dollars to purchase our
exports minus domestic supply of dollars to purchase imports
- Net capital outflow is the net supply of dollars: The supply of dollars from domestic
residents investing abroad minus the demand for dollars from foreigners buying
domestic assets
Economic Policy
, S2#I S1#I
1. A fiscal expansion which
causes a reduction in saving
1 reduces the supply of domestic
currency
2. Which raises the real exchange
,2 rate
3. And causes net exports to fall
2
,1 NX(,)
NX2 NX1 NX
, S#I1 S#I2
1. An increase in world interest
rate reduces investment, which
1 increases the supply of
domestic currency (by ) net
capital outflow, S-I)
,1 2. Which causes the real exchange
rate to fall,
2
,2 NX(,) 3. And raises net exports
NX1 NX2 NX
3
- 40 - Peter C. May
, S#I2 S#I1
1. An increase in investment
reduces the supply of domestic
1 currency (by * net capital
outflow, S-I)
2. Which raises the real exchange
,2 rate
3. And causes net exports to fall
2
,1 NX(,)
NX2 NX1 NX
NX1(,)
NX NX
3
- The appreciation offsets the increase in net exports due to lower imports
• HENCE: Protectionist trade policies do not affect the trade balance BUT the
amount of trade
! *M (due to trade policy) & *X (due to appreciation) % NX unchanged
• Diminish gains from trade that arise when countries specialize in what they
produce best (comparative advantage)
Peter C. May - 41 -
Nominal Exchange Rate = Real Exchange Rate " Inverted Ratio of Price Levels
Pf
e = # "
Pd
- The nominal exchange rate (e) depends on the real exchange rate and the price levels of
! the two countries
- HENCE: the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate between the currencies of
! two countries equals the percentage change in the real exchange rate plus the difference
in their inflation rates [if )(d % *e]
• Growth rate of NIR = difference between foreign and domestic inflation rates
Rule:
1) If the domestic country has a low rate of inflation relative to the foreign
country, the domestic currency will buy an increasing amount of the foreign
currency over time ()e)
2) If the domestic country has a high rate of inflation relative to the foreign
country, the domestic currency will buy a decreasing amount of the foreign
currency over time (*e)
- Law of One Price: The same cannot sell for different prices in different locations at the
same time % no arbitrage opportunities
NX NX
SUMMARY:
1. Net exports are the difference between exports and imports. They are equal to
the difference between what we produce and what we demand for consumption,
investment and government purchases. [NX=X#M=Y#C#I#G]
2. The net capital outflow is the excess of domestic saving over domestic
investment. The trade balance is the amount received for our net exports of
goods and services. The national income accounts identity shows that the net
capital outflow always equals the trade balance. [S#I=NX]
3. The impact of any policy on the trade balance can be determined by examining its
impact on saving and investment. Policies that raise saving or lower investment
lead to a trade surplus, and policies that lower saving or raise investment lead to a
trade deficit. [if )S or *I ! )NX; if *S or )I % *NX] However, NX does not
change if neither S or I are affected (e.g. trade policies).
4. The nominal exchange rate is the rate at which people trade the currency of one
country for the currency of another country. The real exchange rate is the rate at
which people trade the goods produced by the two countries [terms of trade].
The real exchange rate equals the nominal exchange multiplied by the ratio of the
domestic price level to the foreign price level.
5. Because the real exchange rate is the price of domestic goods relative to foreign
goods, an appreciation of the real exchange rate tends to reduce net exports. The
equilibrium real exchange rate is the rate at which the quantity of net exports
demanded equals the net capital outflow.
6. The nominal exchange rate is determined by the real exchange rate multiplied by
the ratio of the foreign price level to the domestic price level. Other things equal,
a high rate of inflation leads to a depreciating currency.
a. For a given value of the real exchange rate, the percentage change in the
nominal exchange rate equals the difference between the foreign &
domestic inflation rates
- 44 - Peter C. May
- Chapter 6: Unemployment -
6-1. JOB LOSS, JOB FINDING AND THE NATURAL RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT
- Labour force (L): Those in the population who have a job or are looking for one
[willing and able to work]
Labour force = Employed workers + Unemployed workers
L = E + U
- Unemployment rate (U): Percentage of the labour force who do not have jobs
• HENCE: People who are willing and able to work at the current wage but do
!
not have a job
U
Rate of unemployment (in %) = " 100
L
- Perpetual ebb and flow (i.e. hiring and firing) determines the fraction of the labour force
that is unemployed
- Assumptions:
1. Labour force (L) is exogenously fixed
2. During any given month,
a. Rate of job separation (s) = fraction of employed workers that
become separated from their jobs
b. Rate of job finding (f) = fraction of unemployed workers that find jobs
%Both exogenous
Friedman (1968): “The natural rate of
unemployment is the level which would
- Transition between employment and unemployment: be ground out by the Walrasian system
of general equilibrium equations,
provided there is embedded in them the
Job Separation (s)
actual structural characteristics of the
labour and commodity markets,
including market imperfections,
Employed Unemployed stochastic volatility in demands and
supplies, the cost of gathering
information about job vacancies and
Job Finding (f) labour availabilities, the costs of
mobility, and so on.”
Peter C. May - 45 -
Rule:
! 1) Any government policy aimed at lowering unemployment in the long-run
must either reduce the rate of job separation or increase the rate of job finding.
2) Any government policy that affects the rate of job separation or job finding
also changes the natural rate of unemployment.
- Public policies seek to decrease the natural rate of unemployment by reducing frictional
unemployment:
• Disseminate information about job opportunities in order to match jobs and
workers more efficiently
• Publicly funded retraining schemes to ease the transition of workers from
declining to growing industries
• Studies: The longer a worker is eligible for UI, the longer the duration of the
average spell of unemployment.
- Wage rigidity: Failure of wages to adjust to a level at which labour supply equals labour
demand
- Minimum wage: A legal minimum set by the government on the wages that firms pay
to their employees (normally between 30-50% of the economy-wide average wage)
• For most workers, the minimum wage is not binding % no effect
• BUT for some workers, especially the unskilled and inexperienced, the minimum
wage raises their wage above its equilibrium level and thus reduces QLD
! Impact on youth unemployment since equilibrium wages of youths low
for 2 reasons
1) Low MPL
2) Compensation in form of training rather than direct pay (e.g.
apprenticeship)
- Advocates:
• Raising income of the working poor
• Cost through higher unemployment worth bearing to raise others out of poverty
- Opponents:
• Not the best way to help the working poor
• High unemployment creates long-term damage to economy’s human capital
• Poorly targeted: Supports youths from middle-class homes working for
discretionary spending rather than heads of households working to support their
families
- The wages of unionized workers are determined not by the equilibrium of supply and
demand, but by bargaining between union leaders and firm management
• Unions exercise monopoly power to secure higher wages for their members
• w/p > w*/p % )(U/L)
- Insider-outsider conflict:
• Workers/Unions (insiders) try to keep their wages high
• Unemployed (outsiders), who might be employed at a lower (equilibrium) wage,
bear part of the costs by being unnecessarily unemployed
! Outcome of bargaining process depends on relative power of groups
! If insiders powerful: )(w/p) % )(U/L)
! If outsiders powerful: *(w/p) % *(U/L)
Peter C. May - 49 -
3. Efficiency Wages
- Efficiency wages theory: Increased productivity through higher wages justify above-
equilibrium wages
• High wages increase worker productivity by:
1) Attracting higher quality job applicants
• Adverse selection: tendency of people with more information
(workers who know about outside opportunities) to self-select in
a way that disadvantages people with less information (the firm,
remaining employees)
2) Increasing worker effort and reduce “shirking”
• Moral hazard: tendency of people to behave inappropriately
when their behaviour is imperfectly measured ! when )(w/p)
% ) costs of being fired % ) efforts
3) Reducing turnover
• Reducing the time and money spent on hiring and training
4) Improving health of workers (in developing countries)
• Consequence: Some alternative workers want jobs at the going wage rate but
cannot get them, so they are involuntarily unemployed
! w/p > w*/p % )(U/L) ! structural unemployment!
Summary
Job Separation
Unemployment
Process of job search
Efficiency wages
Trends in UK Unemployment
- Model of natural rate of unemployment assumes that the labour force (L) is fixed [only
‘s’ and ‘f’ matter]
• BUT: about 1/3 of the unemployed are workers who have only recently entered
the labour force (e.g. young workers) and almost # of all spells of unemployment
end in the unemployed person’s withdrawal from the labour force
• Discouraged workers: Those who want a job, but, after unsuccessful searches,
have given up looking % do not show up in unemployment figures
• Inflexibility caused by expensive hiring and firing ! firms substitute capital for
workers
• Trade-off between equality (welfare state) and flexible labour markets
6-6. CONCLUSION
- 4 types of unemployment
1) Frictional [caused by the time it takes workers to find new jobs]
2) Structural [real wage rigidities ! mismatch between quantity of labour
demanded and supplied at going real wage rate]
3) Cyclical [demand-deficiency]
4) Voluntary [low inter-temporal relative wage, but called unemployed due to
unemployment benefits]
• 1) & 2) % NRU
• 1), 2) & 3) % involuntary unemployment
- Unemployment represents wasted resources % a lost potential to contribute to national
income
- Zero unemployment is impossible in free-market economies as the government cannot
make job search instantaneous (no zero frictional unemployment)
Peter C. May - 53 -
SUMMARY:
Rule:
1) In the long-run, prices are flexible and can respond to changes in supply or demand.
2) In the short-run, many prices are ‘sticky’ at some predetermined level.
- Example:
• LR: ) 5% M % ) 5% all prices % Y unchanged
• SR: ) 5% M % not all prices ) 5% % changes in Y
- Simple AD derivations:
1. Using quantity equation:
MV = PY
Assuming V is constant and M is fixed by the central bank :
PY = constant OR P "1/Y
2. Using supply and demand for real money balances:
(M/P)d = kY = (M/P) " M # (1/k) = PY
!
Assuming k (how much money people want to hold for every unit of income)
is constant and M is fixed by the central bank :
PY = constant OR P $1/Y
PRICE LEVEL, P
! The AD curve slopes downwards:
The higher the price level (P), the
lower the level of real money
balances (M/P) and therefore the
lower the quantity of goods and
services demanded (Y)!
AD
INCOME, OUTPUT, Y
- Aggregate supply (AS): (Positive) Relationship between the quantity of goods and
services supplied in the economy and the aggregate price level
• Because of price-stickiness in the short-run, the AS relationship depends on the
time horizon
a) Long-run aggregate supply curve (LRAS)
b) Short-run aggregate supply curve (SRAS)
- 56 - Peter C. May
Y
" INCOME, OUTPUT, Y
PRICE LEVEL, P
SRAS
INCOME, OUTPUT, Y
Rule:
1) In the short-run, a reduction in AD causes a reduction in output [no/small change in price level].
2) In the long-run, a reduction in AD causes a fall in the aggregate price level [no change in output].
- NOTE: As we will see in the coming chapters, some prices are able to respond quickly
to changing circumstances % SRAS is upward sloping, not horizontal
Rule:
1) Over long periods of time, prices are flexible, the aggregate supply curve is vertical and
changes in aggregate demand affect the price level, but not output! ! classical theory!
2) Over short periods of time, prices are sticky, the aggregate supply curve is horizontal
and changes in aggregate demand do affect the economy’s output of goods and services!
SRAS
AD
INCOME, OUTPUT, Y
LRAS
PRICE LEVEL, P
1 1. A fall in AD from AD1
to AD2
2. Results in a reduction of
2 output in the short-run
SRAS
(Y
" % Y S)
Y
"
AD2 AD1
YS Y
" INCOME, OUTPUT, Y
- 58 - Peter C. May
- BUT in the long-run wages and prices fall in response to low demand (SRAS curve
shifts downwards)
YS Y
" INCOME, OUTPUT, Y
- HENCE: the adjustment of prices is what moves the economy to its long-run
equilibrium:
• Over time, prices gradually become “unstuck”
! For all these reasons, firms would like to raise their prices. In the short
run, they cannot. But over time, prices gradually become “unstuck,” and
firms can increase prices in response to these cost pressures.
Demand Shocks
Y
" YS INCOME, OUTPUT, Y
Supply Shocks
- Supply shocks have a direct impact on the price level ! also called price shocks
• Examples:
! Drought destroys crops % *AS, )P
! Increase in union aggressiveness % *AS, )P (and )w)
! OPEC raises oil price %*AS, )P
• Difference between
a) Adverse shocks: ) costs & )P [all 3 examples above]
b) Favourable shock: * costs & *P
• Stagflation: Stagnation (recession) + inflation
! Often caused by adverse supply shock
YS Y
" INCOME, OUTPUT, Y
Peter C. May - 61 -
AD1
Y
" INCOME, OUTPUT, Y
- 62 - Peter C. May
SUMMARY:
- According to the classical theory, Y depends on factor supplies and available technology
• BUT: both did not substantially change during the Great Depression
• HENCE: Keynes’ “General Theory” (1936) % new understanding of economic
fluctuations
- Keynes’ explanations
1) Low AD responsible for low Y and high unemployment
! criticizing classical theory for assuming that AS alone – capital, labour and
technology – determines Y
2) IS-LM model: Shows what causes income to change in the short-run when the
price level is fixed because all prices are sticky [OR what causes AD to shift, but
equivalent because SRAS horizontal]
! IS curve (Investment & Saving) % represents the goods market
equilibrium between Investment and Savings
! LM curve (Liquidity & Money) % represents the money market
equilibrium between demand for Liquidity and Money supply
! Interest rate = variable that links IS and LM (influences both
investment and money demand)
- IS-LM model assumes SRAS curve horizontal (prices fully sticky in SR)% IS-LM model
perfect representation of economy in the SR [takes the price level (P) as given/fixed]
- IS curve: Plots the relationship between the interest rate and the level of income that
arises in the market for goods and services
a) Planned expenditure
E = C +I + G (where I = planned investment)
E = C(Y - T) + I + G (I exogenous, for now)
! Planned expenditure is a function of income!
!
PLANNED
EXPENDITURE, E
Why the slope of E equals the MPC:
E=C(Y#T
" )+I"+G
" - With I and G exogenous, the
only component of (C+I+G)
that changes when income
changes is consumption.
- A one-unit increase in income
Slope=MPC causes consumption - and
When Y=0:
(-MPC"T
" )+I"+G
") therefore E - to increase by the
MPC.
INCOME, OUTPUT, Y
PLANNED
EXPENDITURE, E Y=E
E=C+I+G
A
45°
Y* INCOME, OUTPUT, Y
E
Y=E
Y1
E1 E=C+I+G
E* A
Y2
Y2 Y* Y1 Y
Unplanned inventory disinvestment
! causes production/income to rise
1) Government purchases:
o )G % )Y=C(Y#T)+I+G % )C(Y#T) % )Y % )C …
o Government-purchases multiplier: The ‘multiplied’ change in national income
resulting from a one-unit change in government purchases
dY 1 1
= =
dG 1- C" 1- MPC
$G # MPC $Y MPC 1
$Y = $G + $C = $G + % = 1+ =
1- MPC $G 1- MPC 1- MPC
!
- 66 - Peter C. May
E
Y=E
E2=C+I+G2 1. An increase in government
purchases shifts the
E2 planned expenditure curve
E1=C+I+G1
upwards by 'G
2 EX 2. At Y1, there is now an
unplanned drop in
E1 1 'G inventory (EX>Y1), so
firms increase output
3. Which increases
equilibrium income (Y1 %
Y2) by 'G/(1#MPC)
Y1 3 Y2 Y
'G/(1#MPC)
2) Taxes
o *T % )Y=C(Y#T)+I+G % )C(Y#T) % )Y % )C …
o Tax multiplier: The ‘multiplied’ change in national income resulting from a
one-unit change in taxes
Important: This just the tax
multiplier in the Keynesian Cross
"Y MPC analysis; in the IS-LM model, the
Tax multiplier : =#
"T 1- MPC increase in income leads to an
increase in the interest rate,
partially crowding out investment
o Derivation: ! the real tax multiplier is smaller
! Y = C(Y - T) +I + G than assumed here! [in IS-LM:
'Y='C#'I]
dY = C" # (dY - dT)
dY C" MPC
=$ =$
dG 1- C" 1- MPC
MPC # %T
%Y = %C = $
1- MPC
E
! Y=E
E2=C2+I+G 1. An tax cut shifts the
E2 planned expenditure
E1=C1+I+G curve upwards by
-'T"MPC
2. Which increases
E1 1 -'T"MPC equilibrium income
(Y1 % Y2) by
-'T"MPC /(1#MPC)
Y1 2 Y2 Y
-'T"MPC/(1#MPC)
Peter C. May - 67 -
- NOTE: Fiscal policy as a means by which to iron out the business cycle has largely
diminished since the 1980s
o Reasons:
! Time lags
! Effect on trade balance ()G % *S % *NX)
! Confusion caused by attempt of ‘fine-tuning’
o E.g. UK stop-go phenomenon: )G to boost AD % *NX % *G to reduce
trade deficit [no overall effect!]
o BUT: Keynes’ policy prescriptions were means not so much as means of fine-
tuning the economy, but as a means of shocking it out of deep recession
E
Y=E
1. An increase in the real interest rate (r1 % r2)
2. Lowers planned investment E1 E1=C+I1+G
(I1 % I2)
3. Which shifts the planned expenditure curve
downwards E2=C+I2+G
4. And lowers income 3
5. The IS curve summarizes these changes in E2
the goods market equilibrium
! IS curve = combination of (Y, r) points that
bring about equilibrium in the goods market
Y2 4 Y1 Y
r r
r2 r2
5
1
r1 r1
I(r) IS
I2 2 I1 I Y2 Y1 Y
- 68 - Peter C. May
E r
Y=E
IS1 IS2
E2 E2=C+I+G2
3
E1=C+I+G1
1 'G "r
E1
Y1 2 Y2 Y Y1 Y2 Y
'G/(1#MPC)
Rule:
1) The IS curve shows the combinations of the interest rate and the level of income that
are consistent with equilibrium in the market for goods and services.
2) The IS curve is drawn for a given fiscal policy.
- Changes in fiscal policy that raise demand for goods and services shift the IS
curve to the right, and vice versa.
!
Peter C. May - 69 -
r S(Y1) S(Y2) r
1
3
r1 r1
2
r2 r2
I(r) IS
I, S Y1 Y2 Y
- LM curve: Plots the relationship between the interest rate and the level of income that
arises in the market for money balances [combination of (Y, r) points that bring about
equilibrium in the money market]
- Keynes (1936): Posits that the interest rate adjusts to balance the supply and demand for
the economy’s most liquid asset % money
o HENCE: Simple theory in which the interest rate is determined by money
supply and money demand
r Money Supply (M
" /P
")
!
M
" /P
" M/P
- 70 - Peter C. May
- Equilibrating process:
o If r > equilibrium: Money supply > money demand
! People want to convert more money into bonds
! *r
o If r < equilibrium: Money supply < money demand
! People want to sell more bonds, so need to offer higher interest rates
! )r
- Example:
o CB *M [monetary tightening]
1 1. A fall in the
r2 money supply
2. Raises the
equilibrium real
2
interest rate
r1
L(r, Y)
M2/P
" M1/P
" M/P
- When income is high, people engage in more transactions that require the use of money
! )(M/P)d
- +
(M/P)d = L(r , Y )
Note:
Since the price level (P) is assumed to be constant, there is no inflation ((=0). HENCE,
there is no difference between the nominal and the real interest rate (i=r) ! Mankiw only
speaks of the ‘the’ interest rate [rather real than nominal interest rate]
Peter C. May - 71 -
r r
3 LM
r2 r2
2
r1 r1
L(r, Y2)
1
L(r, Y1)
M
" /P
" M/P Y1 Y2 Y
Rule:
1) The LM curve shows the combinations of the interest rate and the level of income that
are consistent with equilibrium in the market for real money balances
2) The LM curve is drawn for a given monetary policy [i.e. given supply of money balances]
- Decreases in the supply of real money balances shift the LM curve upward
- Increases in the supply of real money balances shift the LM curve downward
r r LM2
1
3 LM1
r2
r2
2
r1
r1
L(r, Y)
M2/P
" M1/P
" M/P Y
" Y
- 72 - Peter C. May
- Example: A wave of credit card fraud causes consumers to use cash more frequently in
transactions.
o This causes an increase in money demand
o In the Liquidity Preference diagram, the money demand curve shifts up
o Hence, at the initial value of income, the interest rate must rise to restore
equilibrium in the money market
o As a result, the LM curve shifts up: Each value of income (such as the initial
income) is associated with a higher interest rate than before
- Quantity Equation:
+
M " V(r ) = P " Y
o )r % ) cost of holding money % *(M/P)d % )V ! every unit of money has
to be used more often to support a given volume of transactions
! o HENCE: upward sloping LM curve
! Because an increase in the interest rate raises V, it raises Y for any given
level of P and M!
- IS-LM model:
Y = C(Y - T) +I(r) + G (IS)
M/P = L(r, Y) (LM)
- Exogenous variables
! o Fiscal policy (G & T)
o Monetary policy (M)
o Price Level (P)
r
LM The short-run equilibrium is the
combination of Y&r that
simultaneously satisfies the
equilibrium conditions in the
goods & money market!
r*
IS
Y* Y
Peter C. May - 73 -
AS curve
SUMMARY:
1. Keynesian Cross:
a. Basic model of income determination
b. Takes fiscal policy & investment as exogenous
c. Shows that there is one level of national income at which actual
expenditure equals planned expenditure
d. Fiscal policy has a multiplied impact on income.
2. IS curve:
a. Comes from Keynesian Cross when planned investment depends
negatively on interest rate [I(r)]
b. A higher interest rate lowers planned investment, and this in turn lowers
national income % IS curve: downward sloping
c. Shows all combinations of r and Y that equate planned expenditure with
actual expenditure on goods and services
3. Theory of Liquidity Preference:
a. Basic model of interest rate determination
b. Takes money supply & price level as exogenous
c. Assumes that the interest rate adjusts to equilibrate the supply and
demand for real money balances
d. An increase in the money supply lowers the interest rate
4. LM curve:
a. Comes from Liquidity Preference Theory when money demand depends
positively on income
b. A higher level of income raises the demand for real money balances, and
this in turn raises the interest rate % LM curve: upward sloping
c. Shows all combinations of r and Y that equate demand for real money
balances with supply
5. The IS-LM model combines the elements of the Keynesian cross and the
elements of the theory of liquidity preference. The IS curve shows the points that
satisfy equilibrium in the goods market, and the LM curve shows the points that
satisfy equilibrium in the money market. The intersection of the IS and LM
curves shows the interest rate and income that satisfy equilibrium in both markets
for a given price level.
- 74 - Peter C. May
Fiscal Policy
- Changes in G & T influence planned expenditure and thereby shift the IS curve
o E.g. )G by 'G
r
LM
1. The IS curve shifts to
the right by
r2 'G/(1#MPC)
3 2. Which raises income
r1 [by less than
'G/(1#MPC) IS2 'G/(1#MPC)]
3. And the interest rate
IS1
1
Y1 Y2 Y
2
- Mechanism:
o )G % ) Planned expenditure % )Y by 'G/(1-MPC) % )(M/P)d=L(r, Y) with
M
" /P
" % )r % *I which partially offsets the expansionary impact of )G
Rule: The increase in income through expansionary fiscal policy is smaller in the IS-LM
model than in the Keynesian Cross analysis ! small level of crowding out [BUT
crowding out not as big as in classical long-run model, where investment is reduced by
the exact amount of the expansionary fiscal policy]
- Change in taxes: same mechanism, except for the fact that the IS curve shifts to the right by
#'T"MPC/(1#MPC)
o HENCE: the effects on r and Y are smaller for a 'T than for an equal 'G!
o 'G financed by equal 'T has a positive impact on Y: 'Y='CG+'G-'CT='G
Monetary Policy
- Changes in M influence the real money supply and thereby shift the LM curve
o E.g. )M
Peter C. May - 75 -
r LM1
IS
Y1 Y2 Y
2
- Mechanism:
o )M % (M/P)S % ) buying of bonds/depositing at banks % *r (until people are
willing to hold all the extra money that CB has created) % ) planned I % )Y
Rule: An increase in the money supply lowers the interest rate, which stimulates
investment and thereby expands the demand for goods and services
1) CB holds M constant
r
LM
2 1. A tax increase shifts
the IS curve to the left
r1 2. BUT because the
central bank holds the
r2 money supply
IS1 constant, the LM
curve stays the same
IS2
1
Y2 Y1 Y
- 76 - Peter C. May
Y2 Y1 Y
Y
" Y
Rule: The impact of a change in fiscal policy depends on the monetary policy the central
bank pursues – that is, on whether it holds M, r or Y constant [and vice versa]
- BUT: impact on economy not inevitable % Policy makers can try to use the tools of
monetary and fiscal policy to offset exogenous shocks!
What is the CB’s Policy Instrument – the Money Supply or the Interest Rate?
- Reasons for control of interest rate (r) instead of money supply (M):
1. Interest rate easier to measure than money supply
2. LM shocks are prevalent
! Targeting r automatically offsets LM shocks (although it exacerbates IS
shocks)
r LM1/3
Y1 Y
- 78 - Peter C. May
LM2(P2)
r P
LM1(P1)
1
P2
r2 3
r1 P1
AD
IS
Y2 Y1 Y Y2 Y1 Y
2
1. An increase in the price level P shifts the LM curve upwards [by reducing (M/P)S]
2. Lowering income Y by raising the interest rate
3. The AD curve summarizes the inverse relationship between the price level P and
income Y
LM1
r P
LM2
r1
P
"
r2
AD2
IS AD1
Y1 Y2 Y Y1 Y2 Y
Peter C. May - 79 -
r LM P
r2
r1 P
"
IS2 AD2
IS1 AD1
Y1 Y2 Y Y1 Y2 Y
Rule:
1) A change in income in the IS-LM model resulting from a change in the price level
represents a movement along the AD curve.
2) A change in income in the IS-LM model for a given price level represents a shift in the
AD curve
- We can compare the short-run and long-run equilibria using either the IS-LM diagram
(a) or the AD-AS diagram b):
a) LRAS
b) LRAS
r LM(P1) P
LM(P2)
K K SRAS1
P1
C SRAS2
C P2
IS AD
Y1 Y
" Y Y1 Y
" Y
- In the short-run, the price level is stuck at P1 % Y1<Y " ! SR equilibrium: K [Keynesian]
- In the long-run, the price level adjusts to P2 so that the economy is at the natural level of
output Y" ! LR equilibrium C [Classical]
- 80 - Peter C. May
A) A negative IS shock shifts the IS and AD curves to the left, causing Y to fall
a) LRAS
b) LRAS
r LM P
SRAS
P1
IS1
AD1
IS2
AD2
YS Y
" Y YS Y
" Y
a) LRAS
b) LRAS
r LM1 P
LM2
SRAS1
P1
IS1 SRAS2
P2
AD1
IS2
AD2
YS Y
" Y YS Y
" Y
D) This process continues until economy reaches a long-run equilibrium with Y=Y
"
Peter C. May - 81 -
- Downward shift in consumption function caused by US stock market crash (*W & )
uncertainty)
- Large drop in investment in housing (excessive housing boom in 1920s & *
immigration)
- Bank failures exacerbated fall in investment () uncertainty & borrowing constraints)
- Contractionary fiscal policy to balance budget ()T & *G)
BUT:
- Real money balances actually rose slightly [fall in P was even greater than fall in M]
- Interest rate fell, not rose
2) Expected deflation: Investment depends on the real interest rate, BUT money
demand on the nominal interest rate
! Extended IS-LM model to show how expected inflation can shift the AD
[assume SRAS horizontal and unaffected by (e]
1) Y = C(Y - T) +I(i - " e ) + G (IS)
2) M/P = L(i, Y) (LM)
i
! LM
(e Expected deflation: (e negative
r2 - Raises the real interest rate
for a given nominal interest
i1=r1 rate
- HENCE: )r % *I % *IS
i2 % *Y
IS1 - *NIR, )RIR
! RULE: changes in expected
IS2 inflation influence income (in IS-
LM model): if )(e % *r for any
given level of i % )I % )Y
Y2 Y1 Y
- If interest rate have fallen to, or close to 0, expansionary monetary policy becomes
ineffective
o The NIR cannot fall below 0 [economy might need r<0 to get out of recession]
! Rather than making a loan (depositing money at the bank) at negative
interest rate, a rational person would choose to hold cash
! AD, production and employment may be trapped at low levels [)M % "i %
no effect!]
o BUT:
1) )M could )(e % *r (negative) % )I
2) )M could *, % )NX
- Policy implication: Moderate inflation (~2%) gives monetary policy makers more room
to stimulate the economy ! real interest rate can fall to #2%
Peter C. May - 83 -
Reasoning:
- Normally: )M % CB buys bonds from public with created money BUT people only
willing to hold )M when *r on bonds (substitute!) [or )M % )demand for bonds %
)P bonds % * yield on old bonds % *r on new bonds]
- The liquidity trap describes a situation in which expansionary monetary policy becomes
powerless
o The increase in money falls into a liquidity trap: People are willing to hold more money
(more liquidity) at the same nominal interest rate
o The central bank can increase “liquidity” but the additional money is willingly
held by financial investors at an unchanged interest rate, namely, 0
o Money and short-term interest bearing assets become perfectly substitutable:
increasing money supply has no effect % like pushing on a string
- As the nominal interest rate decreases to zero, once people have enough money for
transaction purposes, they are indifferent between holding money and holding bonds.
The demand for money becomes horizontal
o This is because when the nominal interest rate is equal to zero, further increases
in the money supply have no effect on the nominal interest rate
r M1/P
" M2/P
" M3/P
"
r1
r2=r3=0
M/P
r L(r, Y2) r
L(r, Y1) L(r, Y3) LM
r3 r3
r2 r2
r1=0
M
" /P
" M/P Y1 Y2 Y3 Y
- 84 - Peter C. May
For low levels of output, the LM curve is a flat segment, with a nominal interest rate equal to zero.
For higher levels of output, it is upward sloping: An increase in income leads to an increase in the
nominal interest rate.
- In the presence of a liquidity trap, there is a limit to how much monetary policy can
increase output. Monetary policy may not be able to increase output back to its natural
level
o E.g. if CB increases the money supply:
i M2/P M4/P i
LM1 LM2 LM3 LM4
L(r, Y)
IS
i1
i M1/P
"
LM
IS1 IS2
i1
M/P
1. Policymakers (or their advisors) now know much more about macroeconomics
o The central banks know better than to let M fall so much, especially during a
contraction
o Fiscal policymakers know better than to raise taxes or cut spending during a
contraction
2. Federal deposit insurance makes widespread bank failures very unlikely
3. Automatic stabilizers make fiscal policy expansionary during an economic downturn
o Examples:
! Income tax: People pay less taxes [fall into lower tax brackets]
automatically if their income falls
! Unemployment insurance: Prevents income (and hence spending) from
falling as much during a downturn
11-4. APPENDIX: THE SIMPLE ALGEBRA OF THE IS-LM MODEL AND THE AD CURVE
The IS Curve
Verify conclusions:
!
1) IS curve downward sloping (Y = … + [(-d)/(1-b)]"r)
2) If investment sensitive to r [i.e. flat I(r) schedule] % )d % IS flat
3) If MPC is high % )b % IS flat
4) b=MPC also determines the impact of fiscal policy:
! If )b: 'G & 'T have a greater impact on Y () multiplier)
5)
- 86 - Peter C. May
The LM Curve
Verify conclusions:
!1) LM curve upward sloping (e/f positive)
2) (-1/f)"M/P: negative % if *M: LM curve shifts upward
3) If money demand is sensitive to changes in Y % )e % LM steep
4) If money demand not sensitive to interest rate % *f % LM steep
The AD Curve
Verify conclusions:
! 1) Y depends on:
! Fiscal policy (G&T)
! Monetary policy (M)
! Price level (P)
2) AD slopes downwards: )P % *Y
3) )M % shifts AD to the right
4) )G or *T % shifts AD to the right
5) ‘z’ smaller than 1, so the fiscal policy multipliers are smaller than in the
Keynesian Cross analysis ! crowding out of investment
Peter C. May - 87 -
The Effectiveness
! of Monetary and Fiscal Policy
A. Economists who believe that fiscal policy is more potent argue that ‘d’
[responsiveness of investment to the interest rate] is small % steep I(r) schedule
and steep IS curve
! Changes in LM (monetary policy, i.e. 'M) have little effect on Y
! BUT ‘z’ is large, so changes in G & T have a great impact on Y (large
fiscal policy multipliers)
B. Economists who believe that monetary policy is more potent than fiscal policy
argue that ‘f’ [responsiveness of money demand to the interest rate] is small %
steep L(r, Y) schedule and steep LM curve
! Changes in LM (monetary policy, i.e. 'M) have a large effect on Y
! BUT ‘z’ is small, so changes in G & T have little effect on Y (small fiscal
policy multipliers)
SUMMARY:
1. IS-LM model:
a. A general theory of aggregate demand
b. Exogenous variables: M, G, T; Endogenous variables: r
i. P exogenous in the short-run [sticky short-run prices], but
endogenous in the long-run
ii. Y endogenous in the short-run, but exogenous in the long-run
[natural level of output]
c. IS curve: negative relationship between the interest rate and the level of
income that arises from the goods market equilibrium
d. LM curve: positive relationship between the interest rate and the level of
income that arises from the money market equilibrium
e. Equilibrium: intersection of the IS and LM curves ! represents the
simultaneous equilibrium in the market for goods and services and in the
market for real money balances
2. AD curve:
a. Shows relationship between P and the IS-LM model’s equilibrium level of
income (Y) ! summarizes the results from the IS-LM model by showing
equilibrium income at any given price level
b. Negative slope because )P % *(M/P) % )r % *I % *Y
c. Expansionary fiscal policy shifts the IS curve to the right, increases the
interest rate (*I but smaller than )G or *T) and raises income, and shifts
the AD curve to the right
d. Expansionary monetary policy shifts the LM curve downward, lowers the
interest rate ()I) and raises income and shifts the AD curve to the right
e. IS or LM shocks shift the AD curve
Peter C. May - 89 -
- Key assumption:
o Small open economy with perfect capital mobility ! r=r*
o Nominal exchange rate (e), expressed as the amount of foreign currency per unit
of domestic currency
! o Real exchange rate (,): Pd
"=e# f
P
o BUT: Mundell-Fleming model assumes that price levels at home (Pd) and abroad
(Pf) are fixed [short-run!] !
! ,-e
o Using the assumption of perfect capital mobility (r=r*)
+ - -
Y = C(Y - T ) +I(r *) + G + NX(e ) " IS * equation
E
Y=E
1. An increase in the exchange
! rate (e1 % e2) E1 E1
2. Lowers net exports by 'NX
'NX
(NX1 % NX2)
3. Which shifts the planned E2
expenditure curve downwards 3
4. And lowers income E2
5. The IS* curve summarizes this
relationship between the
exchange rate and income
()e % *NX % *Y
Y2 Y1 Y
e e 4
e2 r2
5
1
e1 r1
NX(e) IS*
2 'NX I Y2 Y1 Y
- 90 - Peter C. May
! LM* curve vertical in Y-e diagram because r* fixed at world interest rate ! given
this world interest rate, the LM* equation determines aggregate income, regardless
! of the exchange rate!
r
LM
r=r*
r*
LM*
Rule:
Both a shift in the LM curve (e.g. )M) and movement along the LM curve (shift of IS
curve) causes a movement of the LM* curve [only depicts LM relationship in regards to Y]
Equilibrium
!
Peter C. May - 91 -
LM*
Equilibrium
exchange rate
IS*
Equilibrium Y
income
- Floating exchange rate system: Exchange rate is set by market forces (demand &
supply) and allowed to fluctuate in response to changing economic conditions
e
LM*
Results:
1) 'e > 0
e2 2) 'Y = 0
e1
IS*2
IS*1
Y
" Y
- HENCE: fiscal policy has no effect on income under floating exchange rates because:
o When )G or *T % upward pressure on interest rate % ) foreign capital inflow
to take advantage of the interest rate difference () demand for economy’s
bonds) % ) foreign demand for currency in the foreign exchange market %
appreciation % *X & )M % *NX % fall in NX exactly offsets the effect of
the fiscal expansion
- 92 - Peter C. May
e LM*1 LM*2
Results:
1) 'e < 0
2) 'Y > 0
e1
e2
IS*
Y1 Y2 Y
- Suppose that the government reduces the demand for imported goods by imposing an
import quota or a tariff
o Since NX = X#M % if imports (M) * % )NX (shift to the right) % IS* curve
shifts to the right % )e & Y
"
a) b) LM*
e e
e2
3
1 2
e1
NX2
IS*2
NX1
IS*1
NX Y
" Y
4
1) A trade restriction shifts the NX curve outward
2) Which shifts the IS* curve outward
3) Increasing the exchange rate ()e)
4) And leaving income the same (Y ")
12-3. THE SMALL OPEN ECONOMY UNDER A FIXED EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM
- Fixed exchange rate system: Central bank announces a value for the exchange rate
and stands ready to buy and sell the domestic currency to keep the exchange rate at its
announced level
o HENCE: A fixed exchange rate system dedicates a country’s monetary policy to
the single goal of keeping the exchange rate at the announced level ! CB shifts
the LM* curve as required to keep ‘e’ at its pre-announced rate [M becomes
endogenous]
e LM*1 LM*2
If the equilibrium exchange
rate (e*1) exceeds the fixed
level, then arbitrageurs will
e*1 buy foreign currency and
sell it to the central bank at
profit % )M % )LM* %
efixed *e (until e*1=efixed)
IS*
Y1 Y2 Y
Peter C. May - 95 -
Fiscal Policy
Y1 Y2 Y
4
Monetary Policy
e 1) )M % downward pressure on
LM*1 LM*2 exchange rate % to prevent it from
falling, CB buys domestic currency to
“prop up” its value % removes
domestic currency from circulation %
*M % LM* curve shifts back.
efixed 2) To keep efixed, CB must use monetary
policy to shift LM* as required so that
the intersection of LM* and IS* always
occurs at efixed % unless the IS* curve
shifts right, the CB cannot increase the
IS* money supply.
Y1/3 Y2 Y
Trade Policy
Y1 Y2 Y
4
- BUT: these gains come at the expense of other countries, as the policy merely shifts
demand from foreign to domestic goods
Floating ER Fixed ER
Policy Y e NX Y e NX
1) Fiscal expansion 0 ) * ) 0 0
2) Monetary expansion ) * ) 0 0 0
3) Import restrictions 0 ) 0 ) 0 )
- Intuition:
o If prospective lenders expect the country’s currency to depreciation, or if they
perceive that the country’s assets are especially risky, then they will demand that
borrowers in that country pay them a higher interest rate (above r*)
o The higher interest rate reduces investment and shifts the IS* curve to the left.
o BUT it also lowers money demand, so income must rise to restore money
market equilibrium
o Why does the exchange rate fall?
! The increase in the risk premium causes foreign investors to sell some of
their holdings of domestic assets and pull their ‘loanable funds’ out of
the country
! The capital outflow causes an increase in the supply of domestic
currency in the foreign exchange market, which causes the fall in the
exchange rate
! Or, in simpler terms, an increase in country risk or an expected
depreciation makes holding the country’s currency less desirable!
- Important implication:
o Expectations about the exchange rate are partially self-fulfilling
! If investors expect a depreciation (*ee) % ). % *e
- 98 - Peter C. May
Rule: The expectation that a currency will lose value in the future
causes it to lose value today!
- In real world, we rarely observe exchange rate systems that are completely fixed/floating
o Instead, under both systems, stability of the exchange rate is usually one among
many of the central bank’s objectives!
! BUT: once a country has established a currency board, the next natural
step is to abandon its currency altogether for a foreign currency
- ‘Dollarization’/’Euroization’ % Foreign country adopts $ or !
(unilaterally or bilaterally) as its domestic currency!
- Policy Trilemma: Impossible trinity % It is possible for a nation to have free capital
flows, a fixed exchange rate and independent monetary policy
o 3 options
1) OPTION 1: To allow free flows of capital and conduct independent
monetary policy BUT fixed exchange rate impossible [e.g. UK, US,
Eurozone]
2) OPTION 2: To allow free flows of capital and have a fixed exchange
rate BUT loss of ability to run an independent monetary policy [e.g.
Hong Kong]
3) OPTION 3: Restrict flows of capital, so have independent monetary
policy and still a fixed exchange rate [e.g. China]
Free capital
flows
Option 2 Option 1
(e.g. UK) (e.g. Hong Kong)
- If P changes, the nominal and real exchange rates will no longer move in tandem
o BUT: NX depends on the real exchange rate, not the nominal exchange rate!
! NX(,), not NX(e)!
o HENCE: New MF IS*-LM* model:
Y = C(Y - T) +I(r*) + G + NX(") (IS*)
M/P = L(r*, Y) (LM*)
!
- 100 - Peter C. May
,
LM*(P1) LM*(P2)
,1
2
,2 1. A fall in the price level
(*P) shifts LM* to the
IS*
right [by increasing the
real money supply]
Y1 Y2 Y 2. Which lowers the real
exchange rate
P 3. And raises income ()Y)
4. The AD curve
summarizes this inverse
relationship between P
&Y
P1
4
P2
AD
Y1 Y2 Y
- Comparing the short-run and long-run equilibria using either the IS*-LM* diagram (a)
or the AD-AS diagram b):
K K SRAS1
P1
C SRAS2
C P2
IS* AD
Y1 Y
" Y Y
" Y
SUMMARY:
1. Mundell-Fleming model:
a. IS-LM model for a small open economy
b. Takes the price level (P) as given
c. Can show how policies and shocks affect income and the exchange rate
2. Fiscal policy in small open economy:
a. Fiscal expansion under floating exchange rate system: )G % )IS* % * net
supply of domestic currency in FX market & upward pressure on ‘r’ %
)e % *NX % Y " (initial expansionary impact is offset)
b. Fiscal expansion under fixed exchange rate system: )G % )IS* % * net
supply of domestic currency in FX market & upward pressure on ‘r’ %
upward pressure on ‘e’ % )M by CB % e=efixed & )Y
! Fiscal policy affects income under fixed exchange rates, but not under
floating exchange rates!
3. Monetary policy in small open economy:
a. Monetary expansion under floating exchange rate system: )M % )LM* % )
supply of domestic currency % *e % )NX % )Y
b. Monetary expansion under fixed exchange rate system: )M % )LM* %
downward pressure on ‘e’ % *M by CB % e=efixed & Y "
! Monetary policy affects income under floating exchange rates, but not under
fixed exchange rates!
4. Interest rate differentials (r=r*+.):
a. Exist if investors require a risk premium to hold a country’s assets
i. Causes: political turmoil, expected depreciation
b. An increase in this risk premium raises domestic interest rates and causes
the country’s exchange rate to depreciate [self-fulfilling prophecy: if
investors expect *e % ). % *I & *(M/P)d % *IS & )LM % )) net
supply of currency in FX market % *e!
5. Fixed vs. floating exchange rates:
a. Under floating rates, monetary policy is available for can purposes other
than maintaining exchange rate stability
b. Fixed exchange rates reduce some of the uncertainty in international
transactions & disciplines the national monetary authority
c. Policy trilemma: Policy makers are constrained by the fact that it is
impossible to have free capital flows, a fixed exchange rate and
independent monetary policy (only 2 of the 3!)
Note: If no perfect capital flows % r can deviate from r*
- 102 - Peter C. May
- In all 3 models of aggregate supply, some market imperfections cause output to deviate
from its natural level
o Final destination
- For simplicity, we assume that type b) firms expect the economy to be at its natural level
e
of output
! % (Y - Y " )=0 ! p=Pe
o HENCE:
P = sPe +(1- s) " [P + a(Y - Y)]
sP = sPe +(1- s) " [a(Y - Y)]
P = Pe + [(1- s) " (a/s)] " (Y - Y)
(1) (2)
o Implications:
! 1. High Pe % High P
! When firms expect a high price level, they expect high costs
! Those firms that fix prices in advance (type b) set their prices high
! This causes other firms to set also high prices
! HENCE: )Pe % )P
2. High Y % High P
! When output is high, the demand for goods is high ()MC)
! Those firms with flexible prices set their prices high % )P
! The overall effect of output on prices depends on the proportion of
firms with flexible prices [if )(1-s), )slope of SRAS]
! HENCE: )Y % )P
o Algebraic rearrangements
Y = Y + "(P - Pe ), where " = s/(1- s)a
- Sticky-price model assumes a procyclical real wage [in contrast to sticky-wage model]
o! If aggregate output/income falls % firms see a fall in demand for their products
o Firms with sticky prices reduce production, and hence reduce their demand for
labour [firms with flexible prices not; adjust prices]
o The leftward shift in labor demand causes the real wage to fall
- 104 - Peter C. May
- Assumptions:
1. Workers & firms bargain and agree on the nominal wage before they know what the
price level will be when the agreement takes effect
o HENCE:
(Bargained) Nominal wage = Target real wage " Expected price level
W = # " Pe
o Solving for the real wage (important for QLD):
! Pe
W/P = " #
P
o Implication: Real wage deviates from its target if the actual price level deviates
! its target
from
! If P > Pe % (W/P) < / ! )QLD [Real wage is less than its target, so
firms hire more workers and output rises above its natural rate]
! If P < Pe % (W/P) > / ! *QLD [Real wage exceeds its target, so firms
hire fewer workers and output falls below its natural rate]
! If P = Pe % (W/P) = / ! no change in QLD [Unemployment and
output are at their natural rates]
W/P Y
Y=F(L)
Y2
W/P1
4
2 Y1
W/P2
L=Ld(W/P)
L1 L2 L L1 L2 L
3 P 3
SRAS:
Y=Y
" +$(P#Pe)
1. An increase in the price level
()P) P2
2. Reduces the real wage for a 1
given nominal wage P1
3. Which raises employment
4. Which in turn increases
output
5. And income ()Y) IS*
Y1 Y2 Y
5
- Unlike models 1 & 2, the imperfect-information model assumes that markets clear
o All wages and prices are free to adjust to balance supply and demand
o BUT: SRAS and LRAS differ because of temporary misperceptions about
prices
- Assumptions:
o Each supplier in economy produces a single good and consumes many goods
o Because number of goods is large, suppliers cannot observe all prices at all times
o Because of imperfect information, they sometimes confuse changes in the
overall price level with changes in relative prices
- Derivation of model:
o Supply of each good depends on its relative price: the nominal price of the good
divided by the overall price level
o Suppliers do not know the ‘overall’ price level at the time she makes her
production decision, so uses the expected price level Pe
o If P rises but Pe does not rise as much
! Suppliers guesses (imperfect information) that there is a 50% chance of
" and 50% chance of )P % on average, he expects only a small increase
P
in P
- Supplier thinks her relative price has risen % produces more
[)P % *Y]
- With many producers thinking this way, Y will rise whenever P
rises above Pe
- HENCE: When the price level rises unexpectedly, all suppliers in the economy observe
increases in the prices of the goods they produce
o They all infer, rationally, but mistakenly, that the relative prices of the goods they
produce have rise ! ) production
o P>Pe % Y>Y "
! Y=Y " +$(P#Pe)
Rule:
1) If the price level is higher than the expected price level (P>Pe), output exceeds its natural
level (Y>Y")
2) If the price level is lower than the expected price level, output falls short of its natural
level (Y<Y")
- 108 - Peter C. May
P LRAS
SRAS:
Y=Y
" +$(P#Pe)
P>Pe Output deviates from its
natural level Y
" if the price
level P deviates from the
P=Pe expected price level Pe!
P<Pe
Y
" Y
- Suppose a positive AD shock moves output above its natural rate and P above the
level people had expected
The economy begins in a long-run
equilibrium at A.
LRAS SRAS2 1. An unexpected positive AD
shock causes the actual price
SRAS1 level to exceed the expected
price level in the short-run
P3=Pe3 C (P2>Pe2)
3 2. As a result, output rises
P2 B temporarily above Y " (point B)
1
3. In the long-run, Pe adjusts and
P1=Pe1=Pe2 A AD2 rises from Pe1 to Pe3, causing
the SRAS to shift upwards
Hence, the economy moves
AD1 towards a new long-run equilibrium
at A % Y " BUT )P
Y1=Y
" =Y3 Y2 Y
2
Peter C. May - 109 -
- Example:
o )M (unexpected) % )AD % )P % P2>Pe2 % )Y (Y2>Y
" ) % LR: )Pe3 %
Pe3>P2 % *Y (Y3=Y
" ) & Pe3=P3
Rule: In the long-run, when prices and expected prices are flexible, the economy adjusts
automatically back to the natural rate of output
! Long-run money neutrality & short-run non-neutrality are perfectly compatible
3) Supply shocks (exogenous events, such as a change in world oil prices, that
alter the price level and the shift the SRAS curve) ! v [)v % )P % )(]
1) Y = Y + "(P - Pe )
2) P = Pe +(1/")(Y - Y)
3) Add supply shocks (v) : P = Pe +(1/")(Y - Y) + v
4) Subtract last year's price level P-1 from both sides : P - P-1 = Pe - P-1 +(1/")(Y - Y) + v
5) # = # e +(1/")(Y - Y) + v
6) Okun's Law : (1/")(Y - Y) = -$(u - u n )
7) # = # e - $(u - u n ) + v
- HENCE: Phillips curve equation & SRAS represent essentially the same macroeconomic ideas
! o In particular, both show a link between real & nominal variables which causes
the classical dichotomy to break down in the short-run
! SRAS curve: Output is related to unexpected movements in the price
level ! more convenient to study relationship between unemployment
& inflation (unexpected)
! Phillips curve: Unemployment is related to unexpected movements in the
inflation rate ! more convenient to study relationship between output
& inflation (unexpected)
o Why would supply/unemployment respond to surprise inflation? % sticky-wage,
sticky-price and imperfect information models, which imply Y=Y " +$(P#Pe)
- Expected inflation & supply shocks are beyond the policy maker’s immediate control
o BUT: policy-makers can alter AD to influence unemployment & inflation
! In the short-run, inflation & unemployment are negatively related: At
any point in time, a policy maker who controls AD can choose a
combination of inflation & unemployment on the SRPC
Important: In the Phillips curve analysis, the “short run” is the period until
people adjust their expectations of inflation!
Slope: #0
In the short-run,
(e+v policymakers face a trade-
off between inflation &
unemployment
SRPC
un U
- 112 - Peter C. May
un U
- People adjust their expectations of inflation over time (in long-run!) % trade-off
between inflation & unemployment holds only in the short-run
o Policy makers cannot keep inflation above expected inflation forever [in LR:
(=(e] % ‘u’ cannot be kept below ‘un’ in the long-run
o Eventually, expectations adapt to whatever ( the policy maker has chosen
o In the LR, the classical dichotomy holds, unemployment returns to its natural
level and there is no trade-off between ( & u
LRPC
(
A: The initial LR
B equilibrium
(1=(e2=(2 C B: Policy maker tries to
push u below un % (1>(e1
C: BUT in LR expectations
adapt to high (, shifting
(e1 A the SRPC upwards
SRPC2
! LRPC vertical at un
SRPC1
u1 un U
(e1+v=(e2
SRPC2=SRPC3
(e1
SRPC1
un U
- Before deciding whether to reduce (, policy makers must know how much output
would be lost during the transition to lower (
o This cost can then be compared with the benefits of lower (
- Sacrifice ratio: Percentage of a year’s real GDP that must be foregone to reduce ( by 1
percentage points ! with sluggish adaptive expectations getting inflation down is costly
in terms of unemployment and output
o Estimates vary between 2 & 10, but a typical one is 5
o Sacrifice ratio can also be expressed in terms of unemployment:
! An increase of 1 percentage point in unemployment translates into a 0.7
percentage point fall in output
! HENCE: if sacrifice-ratio=2: *( by 1pp requires *Y by 2pp, BUT )u
by 3pp (cyclical unemployment)
- Note: CBs that are politically independent are typically more credible than those that are
controlled by the government (if CB not independent: ) sacrifice ratio)
Peter C. May - 115 -
- Our analysis of the costs of disinflation, and of economic fluctuations in the preceding
chapters, is based on the natural-rate hypothesis
o Changes in aggregate demand affect output and employment
only in the short run
o In the long run, the economy returns to the levels of output, employment and
unemployment described by the classical model [classical dichotomy]
SUMMARY:
! 2 questions:
1) Should policy be active or passive?
2) Should policy be conducted by rule or by discretion?
- Growth of real GDP has been very volatile ! Should policymakers attempt to smooth
out these fluctuations by using fiscal and monetary policy to alter aggregate demand?
o Advocates for activist policy believe that policymakers should use the fiscal and
monetary policy tools at their disposal to try to reduce the length and severity of
recessions, or prevent them if possible
! Recessions cause economic hardship for millions of people
• During a recession, many people lose their jobs (the average for
a US recession is 2.3 million)
! IS-LM and AD/AS model show
• How shocks to the economy can cause recessions
• That monetary and fiscal policy can exert a powerful impact on
AD, and thereby, on inflation and unemployment
! Wasteful not to use these policy instruments to stabilize the economy!
o BUT other economists are critical of the government’s attempt to stabilize the
economy because of
1) Lags in the implementation and effects of policies
2) Difficulty of economic forecasting
3) Ignorance, expectations and the Lucas critique
- 118 - Peter C. May
1) Inside lag: Time between a shock to the economy and the policy action
responding to that shock
a. Takes time to recognize shock
b. Takes time to implement policy, especially fiscal policy
• Fiscal policy (change in government spending and/or taxes)
requires an act of Congress " Process by which a bill becomes a
law is lengthy & often fraught with political difficulty!
2) Outside lag: Time between a policy action and its influence on the economy
Rule: If the active policy lags are large, so that economic conditions change (self-correct)
before policy’s impact is felt, then policy may end up destabilizing the economy!
- Automatic stabilizers: Policies that stimulate or depress the economy when necessary
without any deliberate policy change
o Designed to reduce the lags associated with stabilization policy ! no inside lag!
o Examples:
! Income tax [if #Y " # marginal tax rate " # average tax rate " $#Y
smaller than without income tax]
! Unemployment insurance [if %Y " # unemployment " normally !C
causing further !Y BUT with UI: no %C " $%Y smaller]
Peter C. May - 119 -
- Because policies act with lags, policymakers must predict future conditions
o Ways to generate forecasts:
o BUT: forecasts are often not accurate, which opponents of activist policy
emphasize
! Without accurate forecasts, policies that act with uncertain lags may end
up destabilizing the economy
Note: Opponents of activist policy argue that in the presence of policy lags, active policy will be
destabilizing if one cannot perfectly predict the future. Since it is impossible to perfectly forecast
the future path of the economy [’black swans’], they therefore argue that active policy is always
destabilizing!
- Lucas: Expectations of the future play a crucial role in the economy because they
influence all sorts of behaviour (e.g. consumption, investment etc.)
o Expectations depends on many variables, but especially important are the
policies being pursued by the government
o Lucas critique: Traditional methods of policy evaluation (e.g. standard
macroeconometric models) do not adequately take into account the impact of
policy on expectations
- 120 - Peter C. May
- Forecasting the effects of policy changes has often been done using models estimated
with historical data
o Lucas pointed out that such predictions would not be valid if the policy change
alters expectations in a way that changes the fundamental relationships between
variables
- Example 1:
o Prediction (based on past experience): an increase in the money growth rate will
reduce unemployment
o BUT: Lucas critique points out that increasing the money growth rate may raise
expected inflation, in which case unemployment would not necessarily fall
! An increase in money growth and inflation only reduces unemployment
if expected inflation remains unchanged
! Perhaps that was the case in the past
! But now, if the money growth increase causes people to raise their
expectations of inflation, then unemployment won’t fall
- Example 2:
o Traditional estimates of sacrifice ratio (cost of reducing inflation) are very large
[e.g. 5% GDP has to be foregone to reduce inflation by 1 percentage point]
! Result: Economists argued that policy makers should learn to live with
inflation, rather than incur the large cost of reducing it
o BUT: Lucas critique points that these estimates are based on adaptive
expectations
! However, advocates of rational expectations (e.g. Lucas) argue that if
policy makers make a credible change in policy, workers and firms
setting wages and prices will rationally respond by adjusting their
expectations of inflation appropriately
! As a result, reducing inflation can potentially be much less costly than is
suggested by traditional estimates of the sacrifice ratio
- Looking at recent history does not clearly answer whether government policy should be
active or passive
o Hard to identify shocks in the data
o Hard to tell how things would have been different had actual policies not been
used
Peter C. May - 121 -
- 1990s and early 2000s stand out as a period of remarkable stability for the advanced
economies of the UK, Continental Europe and the US
o 3 possible reasons
1) Structural change: Economies are becoming more service-based and
less manufacturing-based than they were in the past, and service
industries are less volatile than manufacturing industries
2) Good luck: Lack of adverse supply shocks etc.
3) Good policy: Better macroeconomic management by governments and
the monetary authorities of the world’s major economies since the early
1990s [! BUT current financial crisis caused by too lenient monetary
policy?]
Taylor Rule :
Nominal Official Interest Rate = Inflation + 2.0 + 0.5(Inflation - 2.0) - 0.5(GDP gap)
Real Official Interest Rate = 2.0 + 0.5(Inflation - 2.0) - 0.5(GDP gap)
!
Peter C. May - 123 -
- Inflation targeting: Involves setting a target for inflation (e.g. 2%) and changing
interest rates from time to time in order to achieve that target
o Not appropriate to change interest rates in response to current inflation (already
too late to change current prices)
o BUT: based on forecasts of inflation (e.g. 18 months)
- BUT: inflation targeting enables public to judge more easily whether the central bank is
meeting its objectives
o # transparency of monetary policy
o Makes central bankers more accountable for their actions
o HENCE: inflation targeting = framework for constrained discretion on the
part of the central bank
- Inflation targeting offers a plan for the central bank in the medium run, but it does not
tightly constrain its month-to-month policy decisions
o Taylor rule may be a good short-run operating procedure for hitting a medium-
run inflation target
o BUT: inflation targeting depends on setting interest rates according to forecasts of
inflation ! forward-looking Taylor rule
! According to the forward-looking Taylor rule, CB should raise short-term real interest rate if
! inflation is forecast to exceed its target over the medium term
- 124 - Peter C. May
- Studies on CBs: find a non-zero weight attached to output gap in the estimated forward-
looking Taylor rule, even where the CB in question is explicitly pursuing inflation
targeting
o CB does to some extent take into account the effect of its interest rate decisions
on the output gap and employment, even though its primary objective is to
maintain low and stable inflation
- A policy rule announced by Central Bank will work only if the announcement is credible
o Credibility depends in part on degree of independence of central bank
- Studies: Higher average inflation in countries whose central banks are less independent,
as monetary policy could be used for political purposes (i.e., lowering unemployment
prior to elections)
o More independent central banks are strongly associated with lower and more stable inflation
o No relationship between central bank independence and real economic activity
Rule: Central bank independence seems to offer countries a free lunch " it has the benefit
of lower inflation without any apparent cost [# credibility " % sacrifice ratio]
- In recent years, a number of countries have given their central banks greater
independence in the setting of interest rates, as well as instructing them to pursue and
explicit policy of inflation targeting
c. Unlike the ECB, however, the BoE does not have the freedom to define for
itself precisely what ‘price stability’ means ! only instrument independence
- Phillips Curve:
o u = un ' )((" ' "e)
o Unemployment is low when inflation exceeds expected inflation, and high when
inflation falls below expected inflation
o Parameter ) determines how much unemployment responds to surprise
inflation
- Loss function:
o CB likes low unemployment and low inflation
o Cost of unemployment & inflation, as perceived by the CB can be represented
as:
- Whatever the level of inflation private agents expected, )/(2*) is the optimal level of
! inflation for the CB to choose
o Of course, rational private agents understand the objective of the CB and the
constraint that the PC imposes
o They therefore expect that the CB will choose this level of inflation
o Result: !=!e=)/(2*)>0, u=un
- Reasoning:
o CB is playing a game against private decision makers who have rational
expectations ! unless it is committed to a fixed rule of 0 inflation, the CB
cannot get private agents to expect 0 inflation
! Suppose that the CB simply announces that it follows a 0 inflation policy
! Such an announcement by itself cannot be credible: After private agents
have formed their expectations of inflation, the CB has the incentive to
renege on its announcement in order to decrease unemployment
[optimal policy is to set inflation to "=)/(2*)]
! Private agents understand the incentive to renege and therefore do not
believe the announcement in the first place
o BUT if the CB dislikes inflation much more than it dislikes unemployment (so
that * is very large, inflation under discretion is near 0, because the CB has little
incentive to inflate
! HENCE: Alternative to imposing a fixed rule " appointing central
bankers with fervent distaste for inflation
Peter C. May - 127 -
SUMMARY:
- Almost all economists agree that the government’s indebtedness should be measured in
real terms, not in nominal terms
o Measured deficit should equal the change in the government’s real debt, not the
change in its nominal debt
- To see why inflation is a problem, suppose the real debt is constant, which implies a
zero real deficit
o In this case, the nominal debt (D) grows at the rate of inflation:
"D/D = #
"D = #D
o The reported deficit (nominal) is &D even though the real deficit is zero
o Hence, one should subtract &D from the reported deficit to correct for inflation
- Same
! argument in another way:
o Expenditure should include the real interest paid on the debt (rD), not the
nominal interest paid (iD)
o Difference between nominal and real interest payments: iD ' rD = &D
- Correcting the deficit for inflation can make a huge difference, especially when inflation
is high
o Example: US in 1979
! Nominal deficit = $28bn
! Inflation = 8.6%
! Debt = $495bn
! &D = 0.086 ( $495bn = $43bn
! Real deficit = $28bn ' $43bn = $15bn surplus
! surprise inflation can erode the real debt burden
- Currently: deficit = change in debt " does not take into account government’s assets
and liabilities
o Better: Capital budgeting
! Deficit = (change in debt) ' (change in assets)
- Example: Suppose government sells an office building and uses the proceeds to pay
down the debt
o Under current system, deficit would fall
o Under capital budgeting, deficit unchanged, because fall in debt is offset by a fall
in assets
- The deficit varies over the business cycle due to automatic stabilizers
o When economy in recession:
! # Unemployment insurance
! % Income tax revenue
- These are not measurement errors, but do make it harder to judge & monitor fiscal
policy stance
o Is an observed increase in deficit due to a downturn or expansionary shift in
fiscal policy?
Rule: Measurement problems of the budget deficit & national indebtedness – including
inflation, capital assets, uncounted liabilities and the business cycle – mean that we must exercise
care when interpreting the reported deficit figures!
- HENCE:
o Current generations would benefit from higher consumption and higher
employment, although inflation would likely to be higher as well
o Future generations would bear much of the burden of today’s budget deficits:
they would be born into a nation with a smaller capital stock and a larger foreign
debt
Note on taxes & incentives: Throughout the book, Mankiw assumes that ‘T’ is a lump-sum
payment. However, in practice, taxes are levied on some type of economic activity
- Result: taxes affect incentives (e.g. when people are taxed on labour earnings, they have
less incentive to work hard)
- Supply-side economists: Incentive effects of taxes are large!
o HENCE: Tax cuts can be self-financing " % tax rate " # incentives " #AS
" #Y " # total tax revenue [Laffer curve]
- Laffer curve: Traces out the relationship between the average rate of income tax in the
economy and the amount of income tax revenue raised by the government
o Suggests that, while increasing income tax rates may increase tax revenue at first,
there comes a point where tax rates are so high that people’s incentive to work is
severely diminished " tax revenue falls as tax rates fall further
- Reasoning:
o At an income tax rate of either 0 or 100%, income tax revenue must be zero (at
0% there is no tax at all, and at 100% there is no incentive whatsoever to work)!
o Raising the tax rate slightly above 0% clearly raises tax revenue from 0 to a
positive amount, so that the slope of the Laffer curve must initially be positive.
Total income
tax revenue At some point between 0% and
100% total tax revenue must
achieve a maximum and the slope
become negative: the disincentive
to work as a result of higher
income tax rates means that
people work a lot less and so the
total amount of income tax paid
begins to fall
0% 100% Income
tax rate
- BUT: Economists have found it hard to trace any strong incentive effects of these tax
cuts leading to increases in total tax revenue, as the Laffer curve would suggest
o Sensitivity of labour supply to the wage rate too low
- 132 - Peter C. May
- Traditional view of government debt presumes that if govt % taxes & runs a budget
deficit (i.e. not %G) consumers respond to their higher after-tax income by # spending
o BUT Ricardian equivalence: consumers who are forward-looking and,
therefore, base their spending decisions not only on their current income, but
also on their expected future income
o HENCE: A debt-financed tax cut has no effect on consumption, national
saving, the real interest rate, investment, net exports, or real GDP, even in the SR
- 2 assumptions
1) Perfectly rational & forward-looking consumers with an infinite time horizon
(e.g. Barro’s bequest motive) ! based on LCH & PIH
2) Perfectly working financial markets " no borrowing constraints
- Reasoning 2: Suppose government borrows "1,000 from the typical citizen to give that
citizen a "1,000 tax cut
o In essence, this policy is the same as giving the citizen a "1,000 government
bond as a gift
! One side of the bond says ‘The government owes you, the bondholder,
"1,000 + interest’
! The other side says ‘You, the taxpayer, owe the government "1,000 +
interest’
o Overall, the gift of a bond from the government to the typical citizen does not
make the citizen richer or poorer, because the value of the bond is offset by the
value of the future tax liability
- Assuming that consumers are forward-looking & know that a debt-financed tax cut
today implies an increase in future taxes that is equal – in present value – to the tax cut
o Tax cut does not make consumers better off, so they do not raise consumption
o Consumers save the full tax cut in order to repay the future tax liability
o Result: # Private saving by amount % public saving " national saving unchanged
- BUT: Ricardian equivalence does not imply that fiscal policy is irrelevant: Increase in
government purchases will always affect consumer behaviour, regardless of what
happens to other variables
Peter C. May - 133 -
- Defenders of the traditional view of government debt believe that the prospect of future
taxes does not have as large an influence on current consumption as the Ricardian view
assumes because of
1) Myopia " Not all consumers think that far ahead (short-sighted, perhaps
because they do not fully comprehend the implications of government budget
deficits), so they see the tax cut as a windfall
! Consumers regard %T as # in lifetime income " #C & %S
2) Borrowing constraints " Some consumers are not able to borrow enough to
achieve their optimal consumption, and would therefore spend a tax cut
[consumption smoothing not possible, so consumption depends only on current
income]
! C1 depends only on Y1: %T " #Y1 " #C1
C2
C1=Y1 C1=Y1 C1
3) Future generations " If consumers expect that the burden of repaying a tax
cut will fall on future generations, then a tax cut now makes them feel better off,
so they increase spending
! Response by Robert Barro: bequest motive " because future
generations are the children and grandchildren of the current generation,
we should not view them as independent actor
! Relevant decision-making unit is not the individual, whose life is fine,
but the family, which continues forever
! HENCE: a debt-financed tax cut may raise the income an individual
receives in his lifetime, but it does not raise his family’s overall resources
! no change in consumption
- 134 - Peter C. May
Making a Choice
- Proponents of Ricardian equivalence argue that the Reagan tax cuts did not provide a
fair test of RE
o Consumers may have expected the debt to be repaid with future spending cuts
instead of future tax hikes
o Private saving may have fallen for reasons other than the tax cut, such as
optimism about the economy
Consensus view: While there may be some offsetting effects of tax changes due to the
perceived effect on future tax liabilities, a combination of myopia and borrowing
constraints is likely to prohibit full Ricardian equivalence
- Some politicians argue that the government should run a balanced government budget
every year
- BUT many economists reject this proposal, arguing that deficits should be used to
1) Stabilization:
o Stabilize output & employment through both automatic stabilizers and
active policy intervention
2) Tax Smoothing
o Total social cost of taxes is minimized by keeping tax rates relatively stable,
rather than making them high in some years and low in others
3) Intergenerational Redistribution
o Redistribute income across generations when appropriate (e.g. wars,
motorways)
o For investment that will benefit future generations as well as the current
generation of taxpayers
- Fortunately:
o Little evidence that the link between fiscal and monetary policy is important
o Most governments can finance deficits by selling debt and do not need to rely
on seigniorage
o Most governments know the folly of creating inflation (i.e. inflationary spirals)
o Most central banks have (at least some) political independence from fiscal
policymakers
C) International Dimensions
- Government budget deficits can lead to trade deficits, which must be financed by
borrowing from abroad ! Twin deficit " S-I=net capital outflow [if %S " %NCO]
o Large government debt may increase the risk of capital flight, as foreign
investors may perceive a greater risk of default.
o Large debt may reduce a country’s political clout in international affairs (see B.
Friedman, 1988: Day of Reckoning)
- 136 - Peter C. May
- Since an economy in some sense lives forever and never retires, there is no reason why
it should ever have to pay off its debts entirely
o More important: Fiscal sustainability " government is able to service its debt
[pay interests and honour capital repayments when they fall due]
o For this to be the case, the ratio of government debt to GDP must settle down
at some constant level
! Government debt & GDP must grow at the same rate
! If this is not the case, government debt will become a larger and larger
multiple of GDP, and there must come a point at which the government
is no longer able to service the debt
- 2 budget deficits:
1. Total budget deficit (B): B = iD + G ' T " includes nominal interest
payments
2. Primary budget deficit: G ' T " excludes nominal interest payments
! Total budget deficit = primary budget deficit + nominal interest payments
B
= (g + ") # d
Y
!
Peter C. May - 137 -
- For a given target long-run debt-to-GDP ratio (d), the total budget deficit may be higher
for higher rates of nominal GDP growth, since this will tend to increase the
denominator of the debt-to-GDP ratio, and so allow a higher accumulation of debt for a
given debt-to-GDP ratio
iD + G - T D
= (g + ") #
Y Y
G-T D
= (g + " - i) #
Y Y
G-T D
= (g - r) #
Y Y
G-T
or for prudent level : = (g - r) # d
Y
- HENCE: for fiscal sustainability, the primary deficit as a proportion of GDP must be
!
equal to the excess of real GDP growth over the real interest rate times the equilibrium
debt-to-GDP ratio
o If g=r " G'T has to be 0
! Government is not adding to the stock of debt through its expenditure,
and the government can roll over its debt interest without the debt-to-
GDP ratio growing
o If g>r " G'T can be negative
! Real value of national income is growing faster than the real value of
public debt, so the government can afford to increase debt a little by
running a primary deficit
o If g<r " G'T must be positive
! Government must run a primary surplus for fiscal sustainability because
real value of debt will rise faster than real income unless the government
uses some of its tax revenue to pay the debt-service, rather than
spending it
Ponzi Finance
- Ponzi finance: Government issues public debt in order to service its debt (i.e. to pay
the interest on its debt and repay capital when bonds mature)
o This requires greater and greater amounts of debt to be issued & consequently
higher and higher debt-to-GDP ratios
o Eventually investors get worried about the size of the total public debt
outstanding and stop buying government bonds
o At this point, the government has no option but to default on its debt!
- The higher the debt-to-GDP ratio, the larger the potential for explosive debt dynamics
o Even initially unfounded fears that the government may not fully repay the debt
can easily become self-fulfilling
o By #r the government must pay on its debt, these fears can lead the government
to lose control of its budget, and lead to an increase in debt to a level such that
the government is unable to repay the debt, validating the initial fears
Peter C. May - 139 -
SUMMARY:
1. Standard figures on the deficit are imperfect measures of fiscal policy since they
a. Are not corrected for inflation
b. Do not account for changes in government assets
c. Omit some liabilities (e.g. future pension payments to current workers)
d. Do not account for effects of business cycles
2. In the traditional view, a debt-financed tax cut increases consumption and
reduces national saving. This increase in consumer spending leads to greater
aggregate demand and higher income in the short-run. BUT:
a. LR: In a closed economy, this leads to higher interest rates, lower
investment (& capital stock), and a lower long-run standard of living
b. LR: In an open economy, it causes an exchange rate appreciation and thus
a fall in net exports
3. According to the Ricardian view of government debt, a debt-financed tax cut
does not stimulate consumer spending because it does not raise consumers’
overall resources – it merely reschedules taxes from the present to the future
a. The debate between the traditional and Ricardian views of government
debts is ultimately a debate over how consumers behave
i. Do they face binding borrowing constraints?
ii. Are they economically linked to future generations through
altruistic bequests?
b. Economists’ views of government debt hinge on their answers to these
questions, but the consensus: full Ricardian equivalence does not hold
4. Most economists oppose a strict rule requiring a balanced budget. A budget
deficit can sometimes be justified on the basis of
a. Short-run stabilization
b. Tax smoothing
c. Intergenerational redistribution of the tax burden
5. Government debt can potentially have damaging effects:
a. Large government debt or budget deficits may encourage excessive
monetary expansion and, therefore, lead to greater inflation
b. The possibility of running budget deficits may encourage politicians to
unduly burden future generations when setting taxes & spending
c. A high level of government debt may risk capital flight and diminish a
nation’s influence around the world
6. Fiscal sustainability – the ability of a government to service its debt – requires
that the debt-to-GDP settle down at a constant equilibrium level
a. Equilibrium level should be set a prudent level to allow for shocks
b. B/Y = (g + ")(d
c. The higher the nominal growth rate, the greater the total budget deficit
that allows for fixed sustainability
- 140 - Peter C. May
- Common currency area: Geographical area through which one currency circulates and
is accepted as the medium of exchange
o Also referred to as currency union or monetary union
- 3 main benefits:
1) Reduction in transactions costs in trade
o Paying a cost to convert currencies is a deadweight loss " companies pay the
transaction cost but get nothing tangible in return
o Benefits since elimination of transaction costs: ~0.25-0.5% of Euro Area
GDP [cumulative effect!]
- When a country joins a monetary union, it gives up its national currency and thereby
gives up
a) Its freedom to set its own monetary policy
b) The possibility of macroeconomic adjustment coming about through
movements in the external value of its currency
- Asymmetric demand shock: Raises aggregate demand in one country and lowers it in
another
o E.g. shift in consumer preferences: away from German goods and services
towards French goods and services
a) France
LRAS
P
SRAS
AD1
AD2
Y1G Y
!G Y
4
- 142 - Peter C. May
- As a result of the asymmetric demand shock, Germany moves into recession & France
moves into a boom
o France: P > Pe ! in LR: #Pe " upward shift of SRAS
o Germany: P < Pe ! in LR: %Pe " downward shift of SRAS
a) France
SRAS2
LRAS
P
SRAS1
P2
P1
AD1
P2 AD2
Y1G Y
!G Y
- Because each of the 2 economies has a long-run vertical supply curve, output will
eventually return to the natural rate in response to demand shocks
o The only cost to the 2 economies is therefore in terms of the short-term
fluctuations in output
o While this may not seem problematic in theory, in practice the resulting
fluctuations in output and unemployment in each country will tend to create
tensions within the monetary union
! Unemployment rises in Germany (SR) ! needs %i
! Inflation rises in France (SR & LR) ! needs #i
o ECB will not be able to satisfy demands for both countries " one-size-fits-all
monetary policy
Peter C. May - 143 -
- If each country had maintained their own currencies and a flexible foreign exchange rate
between them, the short-term fluctuations in aggregate demand would be alleviated by a
movement in the exchange rate
o % Demand for German exports ! % demand for German currency
! " real depreciation & # demand for German exports
o # Demand for French exports ! # demand for French currency
! ! real appreciation & % demand for French exports
Rule:
1) Having a flexible exchange rate means that the economies never move away from their
long-term natural level of output (Y! ) ! a flexible exchange rate system can insulate an
economy from asymmetric demand shocks
2) In a currency union, however, this automatic adjustment mechanism through the exchange
rate is not available ! the best that can be done is to wait for wages and prices to adjust fully
to the asymmetric demand shocks so that the SRAS curve shifts in each country
- Optimum currency area (by Mundell): A group of countries for which the benefits of
adopting a single currency heavily outweigh the costs
2) Are prone to the same kind of demand shocks [i.e. no asymmetric demand shocks]
- 144 - Peter C. May
LABOUR MOBILITY
- If labour is highly mobile:
o Unemployed workers simply migrate to France and find a job
o Macroeconomic imbalance is alleviated:
! Unemployment in Germany will fall as many of the unemployed have
left the country
! Inflationary wage pressures in France decline as the labour force expands
with the migrants from France
o Note: Labour mobility does affect the speed of adjustment of SRAS BUT it
actually shifts the LRAS (natural rate of output and unemployment)
! Germany: LRAS shifts leftwards
! France: LRAS shifts outwards
a) France
LRAS1 LRAS2
P
SRAS
AD1
AD2
Y ! G1
! G2 Y Y
Peter C. May - 145 -
Rule: By making the output gaps smaller in absolute size, labour mobility means that there is
less fluctuation in output and unemployment in each country, and the adjustment to the
long-run equilibrium will be faster!
CAPITAL MOBILITY
- Physical capital mobility: Plant, machinery (factor of production) " helps by
expanding productive capacity in countries experiencing a boom as firms in other
member countries build factories there
o # physical capital " #K " #MPL " #Y ! [so Y>Y ! smaller]
- Financial capital mobility: Bonds, company shares & bank loans " helps in
cushioning economies from short-term output shocks
o Recession in Germany " Germans borrow from French to make up for their
temporary fall in income
o HENCE: financial capital market integration across countries allows households
to insure one another against asymmetric shocks so that the variability of
consumption over the economic cycle can be reduced
- High degree of trade integration: The greater the amount of trade that is done
between a group of countries, the more they will benefit from adopting a common
currency
o The greater the amount of trade the greater the benefits from
! Reduction in transaction costs
! Reduction in exchange-rate volatility
- 146 - Peter C. May
- Trade integration
o Degree of trade integration is variable, but nevertheless high on average (with
the notable exception of Greece)
o Degree of European trade integration appears to have been rising over time in
nearly every country
! Some criteria – such as high degree of trade integration – endogenous?
! Actually being a member of a currency union may enhance the degree of
trade between members of the union, precisely because of the decline in
transactions costs in carrying out such trade [# integration " # benefits]
- Labour mobility
o Labour is notoriously immobile across European countries
! Differences in language, culture and other social institutions make it
difficult for workers to migrate
o Europe therefore scores very low on this optimum currency area criterion
- Overall, if very strong differences in the economic cycle were to emerge across the
Europe Area, the lack of independent monetary and exchange-rate policy would be felt
acutely
o For that reason, many economists argue that EMU is not an optimum currency
area
o Nevertheless, it is possible that some of the optimum currency area criteria may
be endogenous
! In the long-run, EMU might gradually become an optimum currency
area
- Even if France & Germany did not make up an optimal currency area because wages
were sticky and labour mobility was low between the countries, national fiscal policy
could, in principle, still be used to compensate for the loss of monetary policy autonomy
Fiscal Federalism
- Fiscal federalism: Fiscal system for a group of countries involving a common fiscal
budget and a system of taxes and fiscal transfers across countries
o Surplus of government tax revenue over government spending in one country
would be used to pay for a budget deficit in another country
o Alleviates problems of adjustments to short-term asymmetric shocks
o Problem: Taxpayers in one country may not be happy about paying for
government spending and transfer payments in another country
- If fiscal federalism is not an option " possibility of individual members of the union
using fiscal policy in order to offset asymmetric macroeconomic shocks that cannot be
dealt with by the common monetary policy
- Rationale: Rules out any free-rider or moral-hazard problems associated with excessive
spending and borrowing in any one member country
o Limits the amount of spending that can be done that is not financed by taxation
o Since B/Y=(g+")d=0.05(0.6=0.03 " government should aim to run a total
budget deficit of no more than 3% of GDP per year if it wants an equilibrium
debt-to-GDP ratio of 60%
16-6. SHOULD THE UK JOIN THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION?
SUMMARY:
- Keynes (1936): General Theory " consumption function central to his theory of
economic fluctuations
- 3 conjectures:
- HENCE:
C = C + cY, where C > 0 and 0 < (c = MPC) < 1
C
!
C=C
! +cY
Y
- 152 - Peter C. May
Two Anomalies
2) Kuznets: Ratio of consumption to income remarkable steady since 1870s, despite large
increases in income
- HENCE: APC fairly constant over long periods of time in advanced
economies
Long-run consumption
C function " constant APC
Short-run consumption
function " falling APC
- Consumption puzzle:
o Studies of household data & short time-series found evidence for a negative
relationship between APC and income
o BUT: studies of long time-series found that APC does not vary systematically
with income!
Peter C. May - 153 -
C2 Y
C1 + = Y1 + 2
(1+ r) (1+ r)
C2
!
Y1(1+r)+Y2
Saving C2 = Y1(1+ r) + Y2 - C2 (1+ r)
(vertical intercept) (slope)
Slope: -(1+r)
A
Y2
Borrowing !
Y1 Y1+Y2/(1+r) C1
- Indifference curve: Shows all combinations of C1 and C2 that make the consumer
equally happy
o Higher indifference curves represent higher levels of utility/happiness
C2
!
Since C1>Y1 ! Borrower!
BC
Y2
C2
IC
Y1 C1 C1
- 154 - Peter C. May
- Increase in income (Y1 or Y2) " parallel outward shift of the budget constraint
o If consumption period 1 and 2 are both normal goods, the increase in income
raises consumption in both periods
o Consumption smoothing: Regardless of whether the increase in income
occurs in period 1 or 2, the consumer spreads it over consumption in both
periods
o HENCE: consumption depends on the present value of current & future
income! [not just current, as Keynes proposed]
Y
PV of income = Y1 + 2
(1+ r)
Rule:
!
1) Keynes posited that a person’s current consumption depends largely on his current
income!
2) Fisher’s model says, instead, that consumption is based on the income the consumer
expects over his entire lifetime!
C2
Initially the person was a lender.
An increase in the interest rate
rotates the budget constraint
C2B around the point (Y1, Y2),
reducing consumption in period
1 and raising consumption in
C2A IC2
period 2! [Higher indifference
Y2 IC1 curve " better off]
BC1
BC2
C1B C1A Y1 C1
- 2 effects:
1) Income effect: Change in consumption that results from the movement to a higher
indifference curve (if lender: #r " #C1 & #C2)
2) Substitution effect: Change in consumption that results from the change in the
relative price of consumption in the two periods (if lender: #r " %C1 & #C2)
Rule:
Depending on the relative size of the income and substitution effects, an increase in the
interest rate could either stimulate or depress saving
E.g. for a lender:
1) When substitution effect > income effect " %C1 " #S1
2) When substitution effect < income effect " #C1 " %S1
Constraints on Borrowing
a)
C2
Consumer’s optimal choice is
C1<Y1 even without the
borrowing constraint
! borrowing constraint not
binding
C2
IC
Y2
BC with borrowing constraint
C1 Y1 C1
b)
C2
Borrowing constraint is
binding: consumer would like
to borrow and choose point
A BUT because borrowing is
impossible, the best available
choice is point B
! When the borrowing
C2=Y2 B constraint is binding, C1=Y1
A
IC2 IC1
C1=Y1 C1
- HENCE: For those consumers who would like to borrow but cannot, consumption
depends only on current income (C1=Y1)
o Similar effect if rborrowing>>rsaving [budget line only kinked, not vertical at Y1]
- 156 - Peter C. May
- In Fisher’s theory, the timing of income is irrelevant because the consumer can borrow
and lend across periods
o E.g. if consumer learns that her future income will increase, she can spread the
extra consumption over both periods by borrowing in the current period
o HENCE: If consumer faces borrowing constraints then she may not be able to
increase current consumption and her consumption may behave as in the
Keynesian theory even though she is rational & forward-looking
- Hypothesis:
o Income varies systematically over people’s lives due to retirement, so people must save during
their working years to maintain their level of consumption after retirement
The Model
- Variables:
o W = initial wealth
o R = years to retirement
o T = remaining years of life
o C = consumption
o Y = income per year
o Interest rate = 0
- To have constant consumption over the remaining life time (smoothing consumption):
W +R " Y 1 R
C= = "W+ "Y
T T T
- HENCE: Aggregate consumption depends on both wealth and income
o Consumption function
!
C = " # W +$ # Y
C
! C=)W+.Y
APC=C/Y=)W/Y+.
Slope: .
)W
Y
Peter C. May - 157 -
C2=)W2+.Y
C
B
C1=)W1+.Y
Wealth
The LCH implies that saving
varies systematically over a
Income person’s lifetime!
SAVING Consumption
C
DISSAVING
Retirement T
- Why elderly do not dissave to the extent that the model predicts
1. Precautionary saving: Saving that arises from uncertainty
o Unexpected medical expenses
o Possibility of living longer than expected
2. Bequest motive: Want to leave bequests to their children
- 158 - Peter C. May
- Hypothesis:
o People’s income consists of two components: permanent (average) income, which people expect to
persist into the future, and transitory income, which are temporary deviations from average
income
The Model
C = " # YT
" where ) is the fraction of permanent income that people consume per year
- Tax cuts that are explicitly announced to be temporary will be regarded as only
increasing YT and therefore leave current consumption unchanged
- If you assume infinitely-long living, rational consumers and perfectly working capital
markets (i.e. no borrowing constraints) any tax cut will be ineffective
o Tax cut will have no effect because it has to be financed through future tax
increase " consumers regard %T as YT and do not change their current
consumption [#S to be able to pay future #T]
- Even if individual consumers are not infinitely-long living, Barro’s bequest motive
would imply that families act as infinitely-long living economic agents
Peter C. May - 159 -
The Model
- If PIH is correct and consumers have rational expectations, then consumption should
follow a random walk: changes in consumption should be unpredictable
o According to PIH, consumers face fluctuating income and try their best to
smooth their consumption over time
! A change in income or wealth that was anticipated has already been
factored into expected permanent income, so it will not change
consumption.
! Only unanticipated changes in income or wealth that alter expected
permanent income will change consumption
o So if consumers are optimally using all available information, then they should
only be surprised by events that were entirely unpredictable
! RESULT: changes in consumption are unpredictable as well
Implication:
If consumers obey the PIH and have rational expectations, then
policy changes will affect consumption only if they are unanticipated.
o The R-W Hypothesis implies that consumption will respond only if consumers
had not anticipated the tax cut!
2) Impact of announcements
o Policy changes take effect at the point of time when they change expectations
[by changing individuals’ calculations of YP]
Empirical Research
- Studies reveal that current income has a larger role in determining consumer spending
than the R-W hypothesis suggests
o Lack of rational expectations
o Borrowing constraints
! Result: Keynes’ original consumption function more attractive
- Consumption decisions are not made by the ultra-rational homo economicus, BUT by
real human beings whose behaviour can be far from rational
o Theories from Fisher to Hall assumes that consumers are rational and act to
maximize lifetime utility
o Consumers consider themselves to be imperfect decision-makers.
! E.g. survey: 76% said they were not saving enough for retirement
- Laibson: The “pull of instant gratification” explains why people don’t save as much
as a perfectly rational lifetime utility maximizer would save
o Time-inconsistent behaviour
Laibson’s experiment
1. Would you prefer
(A) a candy today, or
(B) two candies tomorrow?
2. Would you prefer
(A) a candy in 100 days, or
(B) two candies in 101 days?
In studies, most people answered A to question 1, and B to question 2 [prefer 1 candy
today to 2 candies tomorrow, but 2 candies in 101 days to 1 candy in 100 days!]
" A person confronted with question 2 may choose B. 100 days later, when he
is confronted with question 1, the pull of instant gratification may induce him to
change his mind ! time-inconsistency!
Peter C. May - 161 -
17-7. CONCLUSION
- Keynes:
o Consumption = ƒ(current income)
- Recent work:
o Consumption = ƒ(current income, wealth, expected future income, interest rate)
! Economists disagree over the relative importance of these factors and of borrowing
constraints and psychological factors
SUMMARY:
3 types of investments:
1) Business fixed investment: Equipment and structures that business buy to use in
production
2) Residential investment: New housing that people buy to live in and that landlords buy
to rent out
3) Inventory investment: Goods that business put aside in storage, incl. materials and
supplies, work in process and finished goods
- Real cost of renting & using 1 unit of capital for one period:
!
Peter C. May - 163 -
R*/P
Capital demand=MPK
K
! K
o If the price of capital goods rises with the prices of other goods:
! $PK/PK = &
! Hence, we can substitute i'&=r into the cost formula
! Total nominal cost of capital = PK((& + /)
PK
Real cost of capital = " (r + #)
P
Rule: !
1) If the MPK exceeds the cost of capital [profit rate is positive], firms will find it
profitable to add to their capital stock
2) If the MPK falls short of the cost of capital [profit rate is negative], firms will let
their capital stock shrink
r
1) Business fixed investment
increases as the real interest rate
falls
2) Outward shift of investment
function might be caused by:
- #MPK [#A (technological
innovation or #L]
I2 - %PK/P
- #/ [ only if %IN < #/K]
I1
- BUT, legal definition uses the historical price of capital for measuring depreciation
o If #PK " legal definition understates the true cost of owning capital [actual
depreciation > legal measure of depreciation] " Overstates profit (firms could
be taxed even if their true economic profit is zero)
o HENCE, corporate income tax discourages investment!
- Tobin: Stock prices tend to be high when firms have opportunities for profitable
investment, because these profit opportunities mean higher future income for the
shareholders
! Stock prices reflect the incentives to invest
- 3 reasons for positive a relationship between the stock market and GDP:
2) Stocks are part of household wealth and income; % stock prices " %C "
%GDP
3) Fall in stock prices might reflect bad news about technological progress and
long-run economic growth [implies that aggregate supply and full-employment
output will be expanding more slowly than people had expected]
- Efficient Market Hypothesis (Fama, 1970): Market price of a company’s stock is the
fully rational valuation of the company’s value, given current information about the
company’s business prospects " Stock market = informationally efficient
o Implication: stock prices should follow a random walk
! Only unpredictable news can change the company’s valuation
! Impossible to predict changes in stock prices from available information
- BUT: some economists believe that many movements in stock prices are hard to
attribute to news; investors focus less on companies’ fundamentals and more on what
they expect other investors will pay later
o Keynes: Analogy of beauty contest in newspaper
! Because stock market investors will eventually sell their shares to others,
they are more concerned about other people’s valuation of a company
than the company’s true worth
! HENCE: best stock investors those who are good at outguessing mass
psychology
! Mass movements often represent irrational waves of optimism and
pessimism: Animal spirits of investors " herd behaviour
Financing Constraints
- Neoclassical theory assumes firms can borrow to buy capital whenever it is profitable
o BUT some firms face financing constraints: limits on the amounts they can
borrow (or otherwise raise in financial markets)
o Implication: FCs make investment more sensitive to firms’ current cash flow &
thus current economic conditions (i.e. credit crunch) because
! Recession + financing constraint: % current profits " if future profits
expected to be high, investment is still profitable, but no funds available
" unable to invest
- 168 - Peter C. May
- Residential investment: Building and purchase of new housing, both by people who
want to live in it themselves and by landlords who plan to rent it to others
o For simplification: assume that all housing is owner-occupied
o Major factor driving residential investment by owner-occupiers: imputed rent that
owners expect to receive from owning their home (flow of ‘housing services’)
- 2 markets
1) Market for existing stock of houses determines the equilibrium housing price (PH)
2) Relative housing price determines the flow of new residential investment
- HENCE: residential investment depends on the relative price of housing (PH/P), which
depends on the imputed rent that individuals expect to receive from their housing (i.e.
demand for housing)
Demand
PH*/P
Demand
K
!H Stock of housing IH* Flow of residential
capital, KH investment, IH
- When the demand for housing shifts, PH*/P changes, which in turn affects IH*
[residential investment]
o Housing demand could increase because
! #Y
! # population
! %r (#& or %i)
Peter C. May - 169 -
Demand
PH(r2)/P
2
PH(r1)/P
D(r2)
1
D(r1)
K
!H Stock of housing IH(r1) IH(r2) Flow of residen-
capital, KH 3 tial investment, IH
- The tax code, in effect, subsidizes home ownership by allowing people to deduct
mortgage interest
o The deduction applies to the nominal mortgage rate, so the subsidy is higher
when inflation and nominal mortgage rates are high than when they are low
o Some economists think this subsidy causes over-investment in housing relative
to other forms of capital
o BUT eliminating the mortgage interest deduction would be politically difficult
Accelerator Model
- A simple theory that explains the behaviour of inventory investment, without endorsing
any particular motive
- Model:
o Notation
! N = stock of inventories
! $N = inventory investment
o Assumption
! Firms hold a stock of inventories that is proportional to the firms’ level
of output
! N = " # Y, where N is the economy's total stock of inventories
o Result:
II = "N = # $ "Y
!
! Inventory investment is proportional to the change in output!
a) When #Y " $N +ve: inventory investment
!
b) When %Y " $N 've: inventory disinvestment (by allowing existing
inventories to run down)
o The estimated relationship is I=0.2($Y
- Holding inventory means selling something tomorrow rather than today, thus giving up
the real interest rate that could have been earned between today and tomorrow
o OR in other words: The opportunity cost of holding goods in inventory is the
interest that could have been earned on the revenue from selling those goods
SUMMARY:
- Definition of money supply in Ch. 4: quantity of money = number of dollars held by the
public [controlled by CB by # or % the number of dollars in circulation through open-
market operations]
o BUT: very simplified version
o More complete explanation
! Money supply is not only determined by CB policy, but also by the
behaviour of
1. Households – which hold money
2. Banks – in which money is held
! Since the money supply includes demand deposits, the banking system
! plays an important role
100-Percent-Reserve Banking
- Reserves (R): Portion of deposits that banks have received but have not lent out
o Some reserves are held in the vaults of local banks throughout the country
o BUT: most are held at CB
- 100-percent-reserve banking: System in which banks hold all deposits as reserves &
give out no loans (so make no revenue)
Rule: If banks hold 100% of deposits in reserve, the banking system does not affect
the supply of money!
Fractional-Reserve Banking
- Fractional-reserve banking: System in which banks only hold a fraction (e.g. 20%) of
their deposits as reserves & make loans
1
Total money supply = " Initial money supply, where rr : reserve - deposit ratio
rr
1
e.g. M = " 1,000! = 5,000!
0.2
! Rule:
1) Banks not only act as financial intermediaries (transferring funds from savers to
borrowers), but also have the legal authority to create assets that are part of the money
supply (e.g. current accounts)
2) Banks are the only type of financial intermediary that creates money through making
loans
3) A fractional reserve banking system creates money & liquidity, BUT it does not create
wealth: Bank loans give borrowers some new money and an equal amount of new debt
- 174 - Peter C. May
- 3 exogenous variables
1) Monetary base (B): Total number of "s held by the public as currency (C)
and by banks as reserves (R)
! Controlled by the central bank
! B=C+R
- HENCE:
!
1+ cr
M= "B
cr + rr
1+ cr
or M = m " B, where m =
cr + rr
- Implications:
!
1. Money supply depends on the 3 exogenous variables (B, rr, cr)
2. If rr < 1, then m > 1 " m=money multiplier
! Since M=m(B, the monetary base has a multiplied effect on the money
supply ! High-powered money
3. M1B ! Money supply is proportional to the monetary base (B)
! %$B=%$M
4. Reserve-deposit ratio (rr) inversely proportional to M
! If rr% " #M [banks can lend more out of each unit of deposit]
5. Currency-deposit ratio (cr) inversely proportional to M
! If cr% " #M [More money in banks that can banks can lend out]
Peter C. May - 175 -
Rule: Because the currency-deposit ratio (cr) and the reserve-deposit ratio (rr) can
vary, so can m & M " HENCE: monetary authority cannot precisely control the
money supply
- Banks &c borrow short-term – depositors/lenders can get money out readily if they
need to
- But lend long-term – in assets such as business projects and housing loans that will take
a while to reach profitable maturity
o By itself this is efficient, not sinister
o It works fine if there is no rush to the exit and if the bank remains solvent – i.e.
if the assets if held to maturity are worth more than the bank’s obligations to
depositors/ lenders
Solvency problem:
- The assets even if held to maturity are probably worth less than the bank’s obligations to
depositors/lenders
o For example, if the value of the housing collateral backing mortgage loans
slumps
o Or if the bank has mortgage-backed securities on its balance sheets
- Contagion risk as banks all try to dump their exposures, sending asset prices down
- Loss of trust even among banks
- 176 - Peter C. May
1) Open-market operations
2) Reserve requirements
3) Refinancing rate
- CB’s control over the money supply is not precise " 2 problems caused by the money
creation by banks in a fractional reserve system
CASE STUDY: Bank Failures, Money Supply & the Great Depression
- 2 types of theories
1) Portfolio theories
!
! Emphasize store of value function
! Relevant for M2 & M3 BUT not relevant for M1
2) Transactions theories
! Emphasize medium of exchange function
! Also relevant for M1
- - - +
(M/P)d = L(rS , rB , " e , W )
- rS : Expected real return on stocks (if # rS $ %(M/P)d )
- rB : Expected real return on bonds (if # rB $ %(M/P)d )
- " e : Expected rate of inflation (if # " e $ %(M/P)d )
- W : Real wealth (if # W $ #(M/P)d )
- NOTE: Most of the currency in an economy is hold by people in the black economy
o Economists: Large amount of currency in black economy = one reason that
some moderate inflation may be desirable
! Black economy is hit hardest by inflation tax
- Acknowledge that money is a dominated asset and stress that people hold money, unlike
other assets, to make purchases " money as medium of exchange
o Explain why people hold narrow measures of money, such as currency and bank
current accounts as opposed to holding assets that dominate them (savings
accounts, Treasury bills etc.)
- Notation:
o Y = total spending, done gradually over the year
o i = interest rate on savings account
o N = number of trips consumer makes to the bank to withdraw money from
savings account
o F = cost of a trip to the bank (e.g., if a trip takes 15 minutes and consumer’s
wage = $12/hour, then F = $3)
- Assumption:
o Consumer’s wealth is divided between cash on hand and savings account
deposits
! Savings account pays interest rate i, while cash pays no nominal interest
o Alternatively, we can think of money in the BT model as representing all
monetary assets, including some that pay interest
! Then, i in the model would be the interest rate on non-monetary assets
(e.g. stocks & bonds) minus the interest rate on monetary assets
(interest-bearing checking & money market deposit accounts)
! F would be the cost of converting non-monetary assets into monetary
ones, such as a brokerage fee
! The decision about how often to pay the brokerage fee is analogous to
the decision about how often to make a trip to the bank
- 180 - Peter C. May
- If an individual makes N trips to the bank over the course of a year, his average money
holding is:
Y
Avg. money holding =
2N
Money
!
holding Example: N=3
Y
1/3 2/3 1 T
!
Total cost
N* N (no. of trips)
(No. of trips that
minimizes total cost)
!
Peter C. May - 181 -
- Implication: Any change in the fixed cost F (trip to bank OR brokerage fee) alters the
money demand! function:
o E.g. ATMs " %F " % Avg. money holdings " %(M/P)d " %k " #V " #(?)P
- Implication
o Complicates monetary policy by making demand for money unstable
(households can switch between money and near money for minor reasons "
close substitutes)
! CB switched from controlling the money supply to setting the
refinancing rate & simply supply whatever money is necessary through
OMOs in order to achieve that interest rate
! HENCE: money supply becomes endogenous: it is allowed to adjust to
whatever level is necessary to keep the interest rate on target
- 182 - Peter C. May
- Consider zero-coupon bonds, which don’t pay coupons but derive their value from the
difference between the purchase price and the par value paid at maturity
o For instance, if a zero-coupon bond is trading at $950 and has a par value of
$1,000 (paid at maturity in one year), the bond’s rate of return at the present
time is approximately 5.26% [(1000-950)/950 = 5.26%]
o For a person to pay $950 for this bond, he or she must be happy with receiving
a 5.26% return
o BUT his or her satisfaction with this return depends on what else is happening
in the bond market (Bond investors, like all investors, typically try to get the best
return possible)
- If current interest rates were to rise, giving newly issued bonds a yield of 10%, then the
zero-coupon bond yielding 5.26% would not only be less attractive, it wouldn’t be in
demand at all. Who wants a 5.26% yield when they can get 10%?
o HENCE: To attract demand, the price of the pre-existing zero-coupon bond
would have to decrease enough to match the same return yielded by prevailing
interest rates
o In this instance, the bond’s price would drop from $950 (which gives a 5.26%
yield) to $909 (which gives a 10% yield)
- If current interest rates were to drop to 3%, our zero-coupon bond – with its yield of
5.26% – would suddenly look very attractive
o More people would buy the bond, which would push the price up until the
bond’s yield matched the prevailing 3% rate
o In this instance, the price of the bond would increase to approximately $970
o Given this increase in price, you can see why bond-holders (the investors selling
their bonds) benefit from a decrease in prevailing interest rates
Bond Price
SUMMARY:
- Economy’s GDP = Number of fish caught + Number of fishing nets made [weighted
by some prices to reflect relative valuation]
Rule:
Shocks aren’t always desirable BUT once they occur, fluctuations in output, employment,
consumption and productivity are all the natural, desirable and optimal response to the
inevitable change in environment
! SR fluctuations have nothing to do with monetary policy, sticky prices or any type of
market failure!
- At the heart of the debate about the validity of RBC theory are 4 issues:
4. Flexibility of wages & prices: Do wages & prices adjust quickly and
completely to always balance demand & supply?
- 186 - Peter C. May
- Intertemporal relative wage: Relative reward for work of present vs. future
o W1: Real wage in period 1
o W2: Real wage in period 2
(1+ r)W1
Intertemporal Relative Wage =
W2
(1+ r)W1
- if > 1 " work in period 1
W2
(1+ r)W1
- if < 1 " work in period 2
W2
- In RBC!theory:
o Shocks cause fluctuations in the intertemporal wage
o Workers respond by adjusting labour supply ! most unemployment is voluntary,
involuntary does not exist
o This causes employment and output to fluctuate (if #i " #IRW " #E " #Y)
o Interest rates are important as they represent the relative price of labour and
determine agents’ choices between labour and leisure
- Empirical research:
o Most studies of labour supply find that expected changes in the real wage lead to
only small changes in hours worked
! BUT: data does not include wages that unemployed could have earned by
taking a job
o HENCE: Although most studies of labour supply find little evidence for
intertemporal substitution, they do not end the debate over RBC theory
Peter C. May - 187 -
- Solow residual: Measure of productivity shocks & of the rate of technological progress
" shows the change in output that cannot be explained by changes in capital and labour
- RBC theory implies that the Solow residual should be highly correlated with output
o Empirical research by Prescott:
!
a) Solow residual varies substantially over time (-1 to +3)
b) High correlation between Solow residual and growth in GDP per worker
c) HENCE: Technology shocks are an important source of economic
fluctuations
o BUT controversial
! Many economists do not believe that the Solow residual accurately
represents changes in technology over short periods of time because of
- RBC theory assumes that wages and prices are completely flexible " no market
imperfections " markets always clear
o RBC proponents argue that the extent to which wages or prices may be sticky in
the real world is not important for understanding economic fluctuations
o Flexible prices are consistent with microeconomic theory
- Critics believe that wage and price stickiness explains involuntary unemployment and
the non-neutrality of money
- New Keynesian Economics research: Attempts to explain the stickiness of wages and
prices by examining the microeconomics of price adjustment
o Why are prices sticky?
1) Small menu costs and AD externalities
2) Coordination failures
3) Staggering of wages & prices
4) Implicit contracts
Peter C. May - 189 -
- There are also externalities to price adjustment: Macroeconomic impact of one firm’s
price adjustment on the demand for all other firms’ products
o A price reduction by one firm causes the overall price level to fall (albeit slightly)
o This raises real money balances and increases aggregate demand, which benefits
other firms
o %Pown " %Ptotal " #(M/P) " rightward shift of LM " #AD " # demand for
the products of all firms
! explains why even small menu costs can cause a large cost to society!
Rule: In the presence of menu costs, sticky prices may be optimal for the firms setting
them even though they are undesirable for the economy as a whole!
Firm 2
Cut price Keep high price
Cut price F1: 30", F2: 30" F1: 5", F2: 15"
Firm 1
Keep high price F1: 15", F2: 5" F1: 15", F2: 15"
Recession
- Multiple equilibria: Both firms cut prices OR both firms keep prices high (" recession)
o If firms could coordinate, they would both cut prices & thus avoid recession,
but if n large, coordination difficult ! underemployment equilibrium
- 190 - Peter C. May
Rule: Prices can be sticky simply because people (i.e. firms) expect them to be sticky,
even though stickiness is in no one’s interest
- If all firms’ price setting process was synchronized, relative prices would be unchanged
o BUT: if price setting is staggered, firms that raise prices have a relative
disadvantage
o HENCE: disincentive to raise prices " price level adjusts sluggishly
- NOTE: If all wages were set simultaneously, workers might be willing to accept a lower
wage because relative wage would be unchanged
4) Implicit Contracts
- Implicit contract " firms want to form long-term relationships with their customers
to make sales more predictable
o Customer provides loyalty & firm provides stable prices
o Other reason: cost of negotiating may be sufficiently high that buyers and sellers
agree to a contract that fixes the price for the duration of the contract’s life
- Policy implications
o RBC: supply-side measures (limited government influence in SR)
o New Keynesian: Monetary & fiscal policy = important stabilizers for the
economy in SR
! Not all economists fall entirely into one camp or the other!
SUMMARY:
- Epilogue -
Lesson 1
In the long-run, a country’s capacity to produce goods and services determines the
standard of living of its residents!
- Real GDP measures the economy’s total output of goods and services, and, therefore, a
country’s ability to satisfy the needs and desires of its residents
o In the long-run, GDP depends on the factors of production – capital and labour
– and on the technology for turning capital and labour into output
o GDP grows when the factors of production increase or when the economy
becomes better at turning these inputs into an output of goods and services
- Corollary for policy: Public policy can raise GDP in the long-run only by improving the productive
capability of the economy
o Policies that raise national saving – either through higher public saving or higher
private saving – eventually lead to a larger capital stock
o Policies that raise the efficiency of labour – such as those that improve
education or increase technological progress – lead to a more productive use of
capital and labour
o Policies that improve a nation’s institutions – such as crackdowns on official
corruption – lead to both greater capital accumulation and a more efficient use
of the economy’s resources
Lesson 2
In the short-run, aggregate demand influences the amount of goods and services that a
country produces
- Although the economy’s ability to supply goods and services is the sole determinant of
GDP in the long-run, in the short-run GDP depends also on the AD for goods and
services
o AD is of key importance because prices are sticky in the short-run
o HENCE: All the variables that affect AD can influence economic fluctuations
! Monetary policy
! Fiscal policy
! Shocks to the money and goods market
! responsible for year-to-year changes in output and employment
- 194 - Peter C. May
- Because changes in AD are crucial to short-run fluctuations, policy makers monitor the
economy closely
o Before making any change in monetary or fiscal policy, they want to know
whether the economy is booming or heading into a recession ! output gap
Lesson 3
In the long-run, the rate of money growth determines the rate of inflation, but it does
not affect the rate of unemployment
- The long-run analysis stresses that the growth in the money supply is the ultimate
determinant of inflation
o HENCE: In the long-run, a currency loses real value over time if, and only if,
the central bank prints more and more of it
- Thus we concluded that persistent inflation and persistent unemployment are unrelated
problems
o To combat inflation, in the long-run, policy makers must reduce the growth in
the money supply
o To combat unemployment, they must alter the structure of labour markets
Lesson 4
In the short-run, policy makers who control monetary and fiscal policy face a trade-off
between inflation and unemployment
- Although inflation and unemployment are not related in the long-run, in the short-run
there is a trade-off between these 2 variables ! illustrated by the short-run Phillips
curve
o Policy makers can use monetary and fiscal policies to expand AD, which lowers
unemployment and raises inflation
o OR they can use these policies to contract AD, which raises unemployment and
lowers inflation
- Policy makers face a fixed trade-off between inflation and unemployment only in the
short-run
o Over time, the short-run Phillips curve shifts for two reasons
! Firstly, supply shocks, such as changes in the price of oil, change the
short-run trade-off: An adverse supply shock offers policy makers the
difficult choice of higher inflation or higher unemployment (or a bit of
both)
! Second, when people change their expectations of inflation, the short-
run trade-off between inflation and unemployment changes
- The adjustment of expectations ensures that the trade-off exists only in the short-run
- 196 - Peter C. May
Equations:
1) MV=PY
2) Y! =F(K
!, L!)
3) S=I(r)
4) P flexible (P=Pe)
Policies:
1) Monetary policy: #M " V ! " #P [if V variable: #M " #"e " #i " %(M/P)d " #V
!, Y
" ##P]
2) Fiscal policy:
a) #G " %S (Y ! , so C
! ) " #r " %I ! crowding out of investment & change in
composition of GDP: #G, %I [might lead to lower growth rate in the very long-
run due to lower capital-labour ratio]
b) %T " #C by -$T(MPC " % S (Y ! ) " #r " %I ! crowding out of investment &
change in composition of GDP: #C, %I [might lead to lower growth rate in the
very long-run due to lower capital-labour ratio]
Equations:
1) MV=PY
2) Y! =F(K
!, L!)
3) S-I(r*)=NX(+(
4) P flexible (P=Pe)
Policies:
1) Monetary policy: #M " V !, Y
! " #P ! #P " %e but PPP: + unchanged so NX
unchanged
2) Fiscal policy:
a) #G " %S (Y ! , so C
! ) " r* but %(S-I)=net capital outflow " % net supply of
domestic currency " #+ [disregarding PPP] " %NX ! crowding out of net
exports & change in composition of GDP: #G, %NX
b) %T " #C by -$T(MPC " % S (Y ! ) " r* but %(S-I)=net capital outflow " %
net supply of domestic currency " #+ [disregarding PPP] " %NX ! crowding
out of net exports & change in composition of GDP: #G, %NX
3) Trade policy (e.g. quota): % imports & upward shift of NX(+) schedule " #+ " %X "
NX constant ! no change in trade deficit/surplus, merely a reduction in trade [might
lead to lower growth rate in the very long-run due to loss of gains from trade
(competitive advantage theory)]
Peter C. May - 197 -
Equations:
1) IS: Y=C(Y-T
! )+I(r)+G!
2) LM: M/P=L(i (or r), Y)
3) P fixed
Policies:
1) Monetary policy: #M " # supply of real money balances " %r for every given level of
Y ! rightward/downward shift of LM curve " #I " #Y
2) Fiscal policy:
a) #G " #E & #Y (Keynesian cross) by $G/(1-MPC) [$Y=$G+$C=
$G+($G(MPC)/(1-MPC)] " #Y for every level of r ! rightward shift of IS
curve " #r " %I [only partially crowds out I] ! #Y
b) %T " #E & #Y (Keynesian cross) by (-$T(MPC)/(1-MPC) [$Y=$C=(-
$T(MPC)/(1-MPC)] " #Y for every level of r ! rightward shift of IS curve
" #r " %I [only partially crowds out I] ! #Y
BUT: %T might have no effect when Ricardian equivalence holds
Equations:
1) IS*: Y=C(Y-T ! )+I(r*)+G
! +NX(ePd/Pf)
2) LM: M/P=L(r*, Y) [vertical in Y-e space]
3) r=r* [perfect capital mobility]
4) e=e*
5) P fixed
Policies:
1) Monetary policy: #M " # supply of domestic currency in the FX market " downward
pressure on e " %M to keep at e at e* ! no effect because monetary policy is sacrificed
to keep e at e*
2) Fiscal policy:
a) #G " #E & #Y (Keynesian cross) by $G/(1-MPC) [$Y=$G+$C=
$G+($G(MPC)/(1-MPC)] " #Y for every level of e ! rightward shift of IS*
curve " upward pressure on r " # net capital inflow " # demand for currency
" upward pressure on e " CB has to #M to keep e at e* (#M until upward
pressure on r subsides] ! #Y
b) %T " #E & #Y (Keynesian cross) by (-$T(MPC)/(1-MPC) [$Y=$C=
(-$T(MPC)/(1-MPC)] " #Y for every level of e ! rightward shift of IS*
curve " upward pressure on r " # net capital inflow " # demand for currency
" upward pressure on e " CB has to #M to keep e at e* (#M until upward
pressure on r subsides] ! #Y
BUT: %T might have no effect when Ricardian equivalence holds
- 198 - Peter C. May
3) Trade policy (e.g. quota): % imports " upward shift of IS* curve " upward pressure on
e " CB has to increase M to keep e at e* " outward shift of LM* curve ! Y (but
decreasing Y for trading partners!)
Equations:
1) IS*: Y=C(Y-T ! )+I(r*)+G
! +NX(ePd/Pf)
2) LM: M/P=L(r*, Y) [vertical in Y-e space]
3) r=r* [perfect capital mobility]
4) P fixed
Policies:
1) Monetary policy: #M " # supply of domestic currency in the FX market " downward
pressure on e " %e " #NX ! #Y
2) Fiscal policy:
a) #G " #E & #Y (Keynesian cross) by $G/(1-MPC) [$Y=$G+$C=
$G+($G(MPC)/(1-MPC)] " #Y for every level of e ! rightward shift of IS*
curve " upward pressure on r " # net capital inflow " # demand for currency
" upward pressure on e " #e " %NX until upward pressure subside (when
r=r*, i.e. when $Y=0) " Y !
b) %T " #E & #Y (Keynesian cross) by (-$T(MPC)/(1-MPC) [$Y=$C=
(-$T(MPC)/(1-MPC)] " #Y for every level of e ! rightward shift of IS*
curve " upward pressure on r " # net capital inflow " # demand for currency
" upward pressure on e " #e " %NX until upward pressure subside (when
r=r*, i.e. when $Y=0) " Y !
BUT: %T might have no effect when Ricardian equivalence holds
3) Trade policy (e.g. quota): % imports " upward shift of IS* curve " upward pressure on
e " #e " %NX until upward pressure subside (when r=r*, i.e. when $Y=0) " Y !