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Aswath Damodaran
Aswath Damodaran 1
Do you have your life vests on?
Aswath Damodaran 2
Truths about Valuation
Aswath Damodaran 3
Approaches to Valuation
Aswath Damodaran 4
Basis for all valuation approaches
n We all believe market are inefficient, and that we can find under and
over valued assets because of our superior intellect, models,
information or some combination of all three.
n Some Sobering facts:
• 70-80% of portfolio managers under perform market indices.
• The Vanguard 500 Index fund is poised to overtake the Fidelity Magellan
fund as the largest mutual fund in the United States. In the last 5 years, it
has been the best performing large mutual fund in the United States.
• The more people trade, the more they seem to lose.
– A study of mutual fund portfolios discovered that they would have made a
higher return, if they had frozen their portfolios on January 1.
– A study of individual investors by Terrence O”Dean also noted a negative
correlation between returns earned and transactions volume (and this is before
trading costs)
Aswath Damodaran 5
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
Expected Growth
Cash flows Firm: Growth in
Firm: Pre-debt cash Operating Earnings
flow Equity: Growth in
Net Income/EPS Firm is in stable growth:
Equity: After debt
Grows at constant rate
cash flows
forever
Terminal Value
CF1 CF2 CF3 CF4 CF5 CFn
Value .........
Firm: Value of Firm Forever
Discount Rate
Firm:Cost of Capital
Aswath Damodaran 7
Did you DISCOUNTED CASHFLOW VALUATION
normalize Is your ROC Is your growth rate Is your stable growth Are you reinvesting
earnings? likely to change consistent with your rate < growth rate in enough to create
Cashflow to Firm in the future? reinvestment rate? economy? stable growth?
Did you include EBIT (1-t)
acquisitions and - (Cap Ex - Depr) Expected Growth= Is your beta
R&D? ROC* Reinv Rate Firm is in stable growth: and leverage
- Change in WC
Grows at constant rate consistent with
= FCFF
Did you consider forever stable growth?
only non-cash WC
and smooth?
I s length of growth period consistent with
competitive advantages? Terminal Value= FCFF n+1 /(r-gn)
Value of Operating Assets
+ Cash & Non-op Assets FCFF1 FCFF2 FCFF3 FCFF4 FCFF5 FCFFn
.........
= Value of Firm
Forever
- Value of Debt
= Value of Equity Discount at WACC= Cost of Equity (Equity/(Debt + Equity)) + Cost of Debt (Debt/(Debt+ Equity))
- Equity Options
= Value of Equity in Stock
Risk Premium
Riskfree Rate : + Beta X - Premium for average Is your risk premium a historical
- Measures market risk risk investment or implied risk premium?
Is your riskless rate in the
same currency and terms Are you using a bottom-
as the cash flows? up beta that reflects your Base Equity Country Risk
business risk and current Premium Premium
leverage?
I s there sufficient Is the company exposed to
data for a historical additional country risk?
Aswath Damodaran risk premium? 8
Relative Valuation
PE=Payout Ratio PEG=Payout ratio PBV=ROE (Payout ratio) PS= Net Margin (Payout ratio)
(1+g)/(r-g) (1+g)/g(r-g) (1+g)/(r-g) (1+g)/(r-g)
PE=f(g, payout, risk) PEG=f(g, payout, risk) PBV=f(ROE,payout, g, risk) PS=f(Net Mgn, payout, g, risk)
Equity Multiples
Firm Multiples
V/FCFF=f(g, WACC) V/EBIT(1-t)=f(g, RIR, WACC) V/EBIT=f(g, RIR, WACC, t) VS=f(Oper Mgn, RIR, g, WACC)
Aswath Damodaran 11
Estimating a Multiple
Aswath Damodaran 12
What approach would work for you?
Aswath Damodaran 13
Contingent Claim (Option) Valuation
Aswath Damodaran 14
Indirect Examples of Options
Aswath Damodaran 15
Value Enhancement
Aswath Damodaran 16
Some Not Very Profound Advice
Aswath Damodaran 17
Or maybe you can fly….
Aswath Damodaran 18