You are on page 1of 617

Global Warming and Climate

Change

PDF generated using the open source mwlib toolkit. See http://code.pediapress.com/ for more information.
PDF generated at: Tue, 03 May 2011 15:50:36 UTC
Contents
Articles
Global warming 1
Instrumental temperature record 23
Temperature record of the past 1000 years 33
Historical climatology 37
Paleoclimatology 40
Biofuel 48
Earth's energy budget 59
Earth's radiation balance 61
Fossil fuel 62
Global dimming 68
Global warming potential 77
Greenhouse effect 80
Greenhouse gas 85
Land use, land-use change and forestry 104
Radiative forcing 106
Urban heat island 109
Albedo 118
Bond event 124
Glacial period 126
Global cooling 127
Atlantic multidecadal oscillation 135
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 138
Indian Ocean Dipole 151
Pacific decadal oscillation 153
Milankovitch cycles 160
Orbital forcing 168
Solar variation 170
Volcano 182
Global climate model 198
History of climate change science 212
Scientific opinion on climate change 218
List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming 244
Effects of global warming 252
Abrupt climate change 266
Climate change and agriculture 272
Climate change and ecosystems 282
Drought 287
Economics of global warming 293
Effects of climate change on humans 312
Effects of climate change on marine mammals 318
Fisheries and climate change 320
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 324
Extinction risk from global warming 345
Ozone depletion 347
Ocean acidification 365
Effect of climate change on plant biodiversity 375
Climate change and poverty 380
Runaway climate change 385
Current sea level rise 389
Season creep 404
Shutdown of thermohaline circulation 408
Kyoto Protocol 412
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 428
G8 Climate Change Roundtable 446
Fossil-fuel phase-out 447
Emissions trading 458
Efficient energy use 478
Renewable energy 485
Nuclear energy 500
Carbon capture and storage 500
Geoengineering 520
Carbon sink 533
Climate change mitigation scenarios 545
Drought tolerance 548
Irrigation 549
Rainwater tank 560
Sustainable development 565
Weather control 576
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change 584
Index of climate change articles 587

References
Article Sources and Contributors 590
Image Sources, Licenses and Contributors 605

Article Licenses
License 613
Global warming 1

Global warming

Line plot of global mean land-ocean temperature change from 1880-2010, relative to the 1951-1980 mean. The black line is the annual mean and
the red line is the 5-year running mean. The green bars show uncertainty estimates. Source: NASA GISS

Comparison of surface based (blue) and satellite based (red: UAH; green: RSS) records of global mean temperature change from 1979-2009. Linear
trends plotted since 1982.

The map shows the 10-year average (2000-2009) global mean temperature anomaly relative to the 1951-1980 mean. The largest temperature
[1]
increases are in the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula. Source: NASA Earth Observatory

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th
century and its projected continuation. According to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global surface temperature increased by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the
20th century.[2] [A] Most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of the 20th century has been caused
by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, which result from human activities such as the burning of fossil
fuel and deforestation.[3] [4] Global dimming, a phenomenon of increasing atmospheric concentrations of
human-made particulates, which affect cloud properties and block sunlight from reaching the surface, has partially
countered the effects of warming induced by greenhouse gases.
Climate model projections summarized in the 2007 IPCC report indicate that the global surface temperature is likely
to rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the 21st century.[2] The uncertainty in this estimate arises from
the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations and the use of differing estimates of
future greenhouse gas emissions. An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the
amount and pattern of precipitation, probably including expansion of subtropical deserts.[5] Warming is expected to
be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other
likely effects of the warming include more frequent and intense precipitation events, extreme weather events, species
extinctions due to shifting isotherms, and changes in agricultural yields. Warming and related changes will vary from
region to region around the globe, though the nature of these regional changes is uncertain.[6] As a result of
Global warming 2

contemporary increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, the oceans have become more acidic, a result that is
predicted to continue.[7] [8]
The scientific consensus is that anthropogenic global warming is occurring. This finding is recognized by the
national science academies of all the major industrialized countries and is not rejected by any scientific body of
national or international standing.[9] [10] [11] [B] Nevertheless, skepticism amongst the wider public remains. The
Kyoto Protocol is aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentration to prevent a "dangerous anthropogenic
interference".[12] As of November 2009, 187 states had signed and ratified the protocol.[13] Proposed responses to
global warming include mitigation to reduce emissions, adaptation to the effects of global warming, and
geoengineering to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.

Temperature changes
Evidence for warming of the climate system includes observed
increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread
melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.[14] [15] [16]
[17]
The most common measure of global warming is the trend in
globally averaged temperature near the Earth's surface. Expressed as a
linear trend, this temperature rose by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C over the period
1906–2005. The rate of warming over the last half of that period was
almost double that for the period as a whole (0.13 ± 0.03 °C per
decade, versus 0.07 °C ± 0.02 °C per decade). The urban heat island
Two millennia of mean surface temperatures
effect is estimated to account for about 0.002 °C of warming per according to different reconstructions, each
decade since 1900.[18] Temperatures in the lower troposphere have smoothed on a decadal scale, with the
increased between 0.13 and 0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade since instrumemtal temperature record overlaid in
black.
1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Temperature is
believed to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand
years before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.[19]

Estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the National Climatic Data Center show that
2005 was the planet's warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in the
late 19th century, exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.[20] [21] Estimates
prepared by the World Meteorological Organization and the Climatic Research Unit show 2005 as the second
warmest year, behind 1998.[22] [23] Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because the strongest El Niño in the
past century occurred during that year.[24] Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long
term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature from 2002 to 2009 is consistent
with such an episode.[25] [26]
Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean
temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade).[27] Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than
land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat
by evaporation.[28] The Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere because it has more land
and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo feedback. Although more
greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in
warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.[29]
The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries or
longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were
stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur.[30]
Global warming 3

External forcings
External forcing refers to processes external to the climate system (though not necessarily external to Earth) that
influence climate. Climate responds to several types of external forcing, such as radiative forcing due to changes in
atmospheric composition (mainly greenhouse gas concentrations), changes in solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions,
and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.[31] Attribution of recent climate change focuses on the first three types
of forcing. Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and thus are too gradual to have caused the
temperature changes observed in the past century.

Greenhouse gases

Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and earth's surface. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts
per square meter (W/m2).

This graph is known as the "Keeling Curve" and it shows the long-term increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations from
1958-2008. Monthly CO2 measurements display seasonal oscillations in an upward trend; each year's maximum occurs during the Northern
Hemisphere's late spring, and declines during its growing season as plants remove some atmospheric CO2.

The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the
atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first
investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.[32]
Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F).[33] [C] The major
greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70 percent of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide
(CO2), which causes 9–26 percent; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9 percent; and ozone (O3), which causes 3–7
percent.[34] [35] [36] Clouds also affect the radiation balance, but they are composed of liquid water or ice and so have
different effects on radiation from water vapor.
Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,
leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. The
concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750.[37] These levels are
much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted
from ice cores.[38] [39] [40] [41] Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this were last
seen about 20 million years ago.[42] Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2
from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use,
particularly deforestation.[43]
Over the last three decades of the 20th century, GDP per capita and population growth were the main drivers of
increases in greenhouse gas emissions.[44] CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and
Global warming 4

land-use change.[45] [46] :71 Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases,
have been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments.[47]
In most scenarios, emissions continue to rise over the century, while in a few, emissions are reduced.[48] [49] These
emission scenarios, combined with carbon cycle modelling, have been used to produce estimates of how atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases will change in the future. Using the six IPCC SRES "marker" scenarios, models
suggest that by the year 2100, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 could range between 541 and 970 ppm.[50] This
is an increase of 90-250% above the concentration in the year 1750. Fossil fuel reserves are sufficient to reach these
levels and continue emissions past 2100 if coal, oil sands or methane clathrates are extensively exploited.[51]
The popular media and the public often confuse global warming with the ozone hole, i.e., the destruction of
stratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons.[52] [53] Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship
between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric ozone has had a slight cooling influence on surface
temperatures, while increased tropospheric ozone has had a somewhat larger warming effect.[54]

Particulates and soot


Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct
irradiance at the Earth's surface, has partially counteracted global
warming from 1960 to the present.[55] The main cause of this dimming
is particulates produced by volcanoes and pollutants, which exerts a
cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. The
effects of the products of fossil fuel combustion—CO2 and
aerosols—have largely offset one another in recent decades, so that net
warming has been due to the increase in non-CO2 greenhouse gases
such as methane.[56] Radiative forcing due to particulates is temporally
Ship tracks over the Atlantic Ocean on the east
limited due to wet deposition which causes them to have an
coast of the United States. The climatic impacts
from particulate forcing could have a large effect atmospheric lifetime of one week. Carbon dioxide has a lifetime of a
on climate through the indirect effect. century or more, and as such, changes in particulate concentrations will
only delay climate changes due to carbon dioxide.[57]

In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, particulates have indirect effects on the
radiation budget.[58] Sulfates act as cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller
cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets,
known as the Twomey effect.[59] This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth
of raindrops and makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight, known as the Albrecht effect.[60] Indirect
effects are most noticeable in marine stratiform clouds, and have very little radiative effect on convective clouds.
Indirect effects of particulates represent the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.[61]

Soot may cool or warm the surface, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited. Atmospheric soot directly
absorb solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools the surface. In isolated areas with high soot production,
such as rural India, as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric
brown clouds.[62] When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can
also directly heat the surface.[63] The influences of particulates, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the
tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics
and southern hemisphere.[64]
Global warming 5

Solar variation
Variations in solar output have been the cause of past climate
changes.[65] The effect of changes in solar forcing in recent decades is
uncertain, but small, with some studies showing a slight cooling
effect,[66] while others studies suggest a slight warming effect.[31] [67]
[68] [69]

Greenhouse gases and solar forcing affect temperatures in different


ways. While both increased solar activity and increased greenhouse
gases are expected to warm the troposphere, an increase in solar
Total Solar Irradiance measured by satellite from
activity should warm the stratosphere while an increase in greenhouse 1979-2006.
gases should cool the stratosphere.[31] Observations show that
temperatures in the stratosphere have been cooling since 1979, when satellite measurements became available.
Radiosonde (weather balloon) data from the pre-satellite era show cooling since 1958, though there is greater
uncertainty in the early radiosonde record.[70]

A related hypothesis, proposed by Henrik Svensmark, is that magnetic activity of the sun deflects cosmic rays that
may influence the generation of cloud condensation nuclei and thereby affect the climate.[71] Other research has
found no relation between warming in recent decades and cosmic rays.[72] [73] The influence of cosmic rays on cloud
cover is about a factor of 100 lower than needed to explain the observed changes in clouds or to be a significant
contributor to present-day climate change.[74]

Feedback
Feedback is a process in which changing one quantity changes a second quantity, and the change in the second
quantity in turn changes the first. Positive feedback increases the change in the first quantity while negative feedback
reduces it. Feedback is important in the study of global warming because it may amplify or diminish the effect of a
particular process. The main positive feedback in global warming is the tendency of warming to increase the amount
of water vapor in the atmosphere, a significant greenhouse gas. The main negative feedback is radiative cooling,
which increases as the fourth power of temperature; the amount of heat radiated from the Earth into space increases
with the temperature of Earth's surface and atmosphere. Imperfect understanding of feedbacks is a major cause of
uncertainty and concern about global warming. A wide range of potential feedback process exist, such as Arctic
methane release and ice-albedo feedback. Consequentially, potential tipping points may exist, which may have the
potential to cause abrupt climate change.[75]

Climate models

Calculations of global warming prepared in or before 2001 from a range of climate models under the SRES A2 emissions scenario, which assumes
no action is taken to reduce emissions and regionally divided economic development.
Global warming 6

The geographic distribution of surface warming during the 21st century calculated by the HadCM3 climate model if a business as usual scenario is
assumed for economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. In this figure, the globally averaged warming corresponds to 3.0 °C (5.4 °F).

The main tools for projecting future climate changes are mathematical models based on physical principles including
fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and radiative transfer. Although they attempt to include as many processes as
possible, simplifications of the actual climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer
power and limitations in knowledge of the climate system. All modern climate models are in fact combinations of
models for different parts of the Earth. These include an atmospheric model for air movement, temperature, clouds,
and other atmospheric properties; an ocean model that predicts temperature, salt content, and circulation of ocean
waters; models for ice cover on land and sea; and a model of heat and moisture transfer from soil and vegetation to
the atmosphere. Some models also include treatments of chemical and biological processes.[76] Warming due to
increasing levels of greenhouse gases is not an assumption of the models; rather, it is an end result from the
interaction of greenhouse gases with radiative transfer and other physical processes.[77] Although much of the
variation in model outcomes depends on the greenhouse gas emissions used as inputs, the temperature effect of a
specific greenhouse gas concentration (climate sensitivity) varies depending on the model used. The representation
of clouds is one of the main sources of uncertainty in present-generation models.[78]
Global climate model projections of future climate most often have used estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from
the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). In addition to human-caused emissions, some models also
include a simulation of the carbon cycle; this generally shows a positive feedback, though this response is uncertain.
Some observational studies also show a positive feedback.[79] [80] [81] Including uncertainties in future greenhouse
gas concentrations and climate sensitivity, the IPCC anticipates a warming of 1.1 °C to 6.4 °C (2.0 °F to 11.5 °F) by
the end of the 21st century, relative to 1980–1999.[2]
Models are also used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change by comparing the observed changes to
those that the models project from various natural and human-derived causes. Although these models do not
unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or
human effects, they do indicate that the warming since 1970 is dominated by man-made greenhouse gas
emissions.[31]
The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates.[82] Current
climate models produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes over the last century, but do not
simulate all aspects of climate.[43] Not all effects of global warming are accurately predicted by the climate models
used by the IPCC. Observed Arctic shrinkage has been faster than that predicted.[83] Precipitation increased
proportional to atmospheric humidity, and hence significantly faster than current global climate models predict.[84]
[85]
Global warming 7

Attributed and expected effects


Global warming may be detected in natural, ecological or social systems as a change having statistical
significance.[86] Attribution of these changes e.g., to natural or human activities, is the next step following
detection.[87]

Natural systems
Global warming has been detected in a number of systems. Some of
these changes, e.g., based on the instrumental temperature record, have
been described in the section on temperature changes. Rising sea levels
and observed decreases in snow and ice extent are consistent with
warming.[17] Most of the increase in global average temperature since
the mid-20th century is, with high probability,[D] attributable to
human-induced changes in greenhouse gas concentrations.[88]

Even with current policies to reduce emissions, global emissions are


still expected to continue to grow over the coming decades.[89] Over
Sparse records indicate that glaciers have been
retreating since the early 1800s. In the 1950s the course of the 21st century, increases in emissions at or above their
measurements began that allow the monitoring of current rate would very likely induce changes in the climate system
glacial mass balance, reported to the WGMS and larger than those observed in the 20th century.
the NSIDC.
In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, across a range of future
emission scenarios, model-based estimates of sea level rise for the end of the 21st century (the year 2090-2099,
relative to 1980-1999) range from 0.18 to 0.59 m. These estimates, however, were not given a likelihood due to a
lack of scientific understanding, nor was an upper bound given for sea level rise. Over the course of centuries to
millennia, the melting of ice sheets could result in sea level rise of 4–6 m or more.[90]
Changes in regional climate are expected to include greater warming over land, with most warming at high northern
latitudes, and least warming over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean.[89] Snow cover area and
sea ice extent are expected to decrease, with the Arctic expected to be largely ice-free in September by the 2037.[91]
The frequency of hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation will very likely increase.

Ecological systems
In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, and poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal
ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming.[17] Future climate change is expected to
particularly affect certain ecosystems, including tundra, mangroves, and coral reefs.[89] It is expected that most
ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO2 levels, combined with higher global temperatures.[92]
Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of
ecosystems.[93]

Social systems
Vulnerability of human societies to climate change mainly lies in the effects of extreme weather events rather than
gradual climate change.[94] Impacts of climate change so far include adverse effects on small islands,[95] adverse
effects on indigenous populations in high-latitude areas,[96] and small but discernable effects on human health.[97]
Over the 21st century, climate change is likely to adversely affect hundreds of millions of people through increased
coastal flooding, reductions in water supplies, increased malnutrition and increased health impacts.[98]
Future warming of around 3 ºC (by 2100, relative to 1990-2000) could result in increased crop yields in mid- and
high-latitude areas, but in low-latitude areas, yields could decline, increasing the risk of malnutrition.[95] A similar
regional pattern of net benefits and costs could occur for economic (market-sector) effects.[97] Warming above 3 ºC
Global warming 8

could result in crop yields falling in temperate regions, leading to a reduction in global food production.[99] Most
economic studies suggest losses of world gross domestic product (GDP) for this magnitude of warming.[100] [101]

Responses to global warming

Mitigation
Reducing the amount of future climate change is called mitigation of climate change. The IPCC defines mitigation as
activities that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, or enhance the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb GHGs
from the atmosphere.[102] Many countries, both developing and developed, are aiming to use cleaner, less polluting,
technologies.[46] :192 Use of these technologies aids mitigation and could result in substantial reductions in CO2
emissions. Policies include targets for emissions reductions, increased use of renewable energy, and increased energy
efficiency. Studies indicate substantial potential for future reductions in emissions.[103] Since even in the most
optimistic scenario, fossil fuels are going to be used for years to come, mitigation may also involve carbon capture
and storage, a process that traps CO2 produced by factories and gas or coal power stations and then stores it, usually
underground.[104]

Adaptation
Other policy responses include adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate change may be planned, e.g., by
local or national government, or spontaneous, i.e., done privately without government intervention.[105] The ability
to adapt is closely linked to social and economic development.[103] Even societies with high capacities to adapt are
still vulnerable to climate change. Planned adaptation is already occurring on a limited basis. The barriers, limits, and
costs of future adaptation are not fully understood.

Geoengineering
Another policy response is engineering of the climate (geoengineering). This policy response is sometimes grouped
together with mitigation.[106] Geoengineering is largely unproven, and reliable cost estimates for it have not yet been
published.[107] Geoengineering encompasses a range of techniques to remove CO2 from the atmosphere or to block
incoming sunlight. As most geoengineering techniques would affect the entire globe, the use of effective techniques,
if they can be developed, would require global public acceptance and an adequate global legal and regulatory
framework.[108]

UNFCCC
Most countries are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).[109] The
ultimate objective of the Convention is to prevent "dangerous" human interference of the climate system.[110] As is
stated in the Convention, this requires that GHGs are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can
adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can proceed in a
sustainable fashion.
The UNFCCC recognizes differences among countries in their responsibility to act on climate change.[111] In the
Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC, most developed countries (listed in Annex I of the treaty) took on legally binding
commitments to reduce their emissions.[112] Policy measures taken in response to these commitments have reduced
emissions.[113] For many developing (non-Annex I) countries, reducing poverty is their overriding aim.[114]
At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in 2009 at Copenhagen, several UNFCCC Parties produced the
Copenhagen Accord.[115] Parties agreeing with the Accord aim to limit the future increase in global mean
temperature to below 2 °C.[116] The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) was held at Cancún in 2010. It produced
an agreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to
meet the 2 °C goal. It also recognized the need to consider strengthening the goal to a global average rise of
Global warming 9

1.5 °C.[117]

Views on global warming

Per capita greenhouse gas emissions in 2005, including land-use change.

Total greenhouse gas emissions in 2005, including land-use change.

There are different views over what the appropriate policy response to climate change should be.[118] [119] These
competing views weigh the benefits of limiting emissions of greenhouse gases against the costs. In general, it seems
likely that climate change will impose greater damages and risks in poorer regions.[120]

Politics
Developed and developing countries have made different arguments over who should bear the burden of economic
costs for cutting emissions. Developing countries often concentrate on per capita emissions, that is, the total
emissions of a country divided by its population.[121] Per capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically
as much as ten times the average in developing countries.[122] This is used to make the argument that the real
problem of climate change is due to the profligate and unsustainable lifestyles of those living in rich countries.[121]
On the other hand, Banuri et al. point out that total carbon emissions,[121] carrying capacity, efficient energy use and
civil and political rights are very important issues. Land is not the same everywhere. Not only the quantity of fossil
fuel use but also the quality of energy use is a key debate point. Efficient energy use supporting technological change
might help reduce excess carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere. The use of fossil fuels for conspicuous consumption
and excessive entertainment are issues that can conflict with civil and political rights. People in developed countries
argue that history has proven the difficulty of implementing fair rationing programs in different countries because
there is no global system of checks and balances or civil liberties.
The Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in 2005, sets legally binding emission limitations for most developed
countries.[112] Developing countries are not subject to limitations. This exemption led the U.S. and Australia to
decide not to ratify the treaty,[123] [124] [125] although Australia did finally ratify the treaty in December 2007.[126]
Debate continued at the Copenhagen climate summit and the Cancún climate summit.

Public opinion
In 2007–2008 Gallup Polls surveyed 127 countries. Over a third of the world's population was unaware of global
warming, with people in developing countries less aware than those in developed, and those in Africa the least
aware. Of those aware, Latin America leads in belief that temperature changes are a result of human activities while
Africa, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few countries from the Former Soviet Union lead in the opposite
belief.[127] In the Western world, opinions over the concept and the appropriate responses are divided. Nick Pidgeon
of Cardiff University said that "results show the different stages of engagement about global warming on each side
of the Atlantic", adding, "The debate in Europe is about what action needs to be taken, while many in the U.S. still
Global warming 10

debate whether climate change is happening."[128] [129] A 2010 poll by the Office of National Statistics found that
75% of UK respondents were at least "fairly convinced" that the world's climate is changing, compared to 87% in a
similar survey in 2006.[130] A January 2011 ICM poll in the UK found 83% of respondents viewed climate change as
a current or imminent threat, while 14% said it was no threat. Opinion was unchanged from an August 2009 poll
asking the same question, though there had been a slight polarisation of opposing views.[131]
A survey in October, 2009 by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press showed decreasing public
perception in the United States that global warming was a serious problem. All political persuasions showed reduced
concern with lowest concern among Republicans, only 35% of whom considered there to be solid evidence of global
warming.[132] The cause of this marked difference in public opinion between the United States and the global public
is uncertain but the hypothesis has been advanced that clearer communication by scientists both directly and through
the media would be helpful in adequately informing the American public of the scientific consensus and the basis for
it.[133] The U.S. public appears to be unaware of the extent of scientific consensus regarding the issue, with 59%
believing that scientists disagree "significantly" on global warming.[134]
By 2010, with 111 countries surveyed, Gallup determined that there was a substantial decrease in the number of
Americans and Europeans who viewed Global Warming as a serious threat. In the United States, a little over half the
population (53%) now viewed it as a serious concern for either themselves or their families; a number 10 percentage
points below the 2008 poll (63%). Latin America had the biggest rise in concern, with 73% saying global warming
was a serious threat to their families.[135]

Other views
Most scientists accept that humans are contributing to observed climate change.[45] [136] National science academies
have called on world leaders for policies to cut global emissions.[137] However, some scientists and non-scientists
question aspects of climate-change science.[138] [139]
Organizations such as the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, conservative commentators, and some
companies such as ExxonMobil have challenged IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with
the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls.[140] [141] [142]
[143]
In the finance industry, Deutsche Bank has set up an institutional climate change investment division
(DBCCA),[144] which has commissioned and published research[145] on the issues and debate surrounding global
warming.[146] Environmental organizations and public figures have emphasized changes in the current climate and
the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to changes in infrastructural needs and emissions reductions.[147]
Some fossil fuel companies have scaled back their efforts in recent years,[148] or called for policies to reduce global
warming.[149]

Etymology
The term global warming was probably first used in its modern sense on 8 August 1975 in a science paper by Wally
Broecker in the journal Science called "Are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming?".[150] [151] [152]
Broecker's choice of words was new and represented a significant recognition that the climate was warming;
previously the phrasing used by scientists was "inadvertent climate modification," because while it was recognized
humans could change the climate, no one was sure which direction it was going.[153] The National Academy of
Sciences first used global warming in a 1979 paper called the Charney Report, it said: "if carbon dioxide continues
to increase, [we find] no reason to doubt that climate changes will result and no reason to believe that these changes
will be negligible."[154] The report made a distinction between referring to surface temperature changes as global
warming, while referring to other changes caused by increased CO2 as climate change.[153]
Global warming became more widely popular after 1988 when NASA climate scientist James Hansen used the term
in a testimony to Congress.[153] He said: "global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high
degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and the observed warming."[155]
Global warming 11

His testimony was widely reported and afterward global warming was commonly used by the press and in public
discourse.[153]

Notes
A. ^ Increase is for years 1905 to 2005. Global surface temperature is defined in the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report as the average of near-surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature. These error bounds
are constructed with a 90% confidence interval.
B. ^ The 2001 joint statement was signed by the national academies of science of Australia, Belgium, Brazil,
Canada, the Caribbean, the People's Republic of China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy,
Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, and the UK. The 2005 statement added Japan, Russia, and the U.S. The 2007
statement added Mexico and South Africa. The Network of African Science Academies, and the Polish Academy
of Sciences have issued separate statements. Professional scientific societies include American Astronomical
Society, American Chemical Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American
Meteorological Society, American Physical Society, American Quaternary Association, Australian
Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences,
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, European Academy of Sciences and Arts, European
Geosciences Union, European Science Foundation, Geological Society of America, Geological Society of
Australia, Geological Society of London-Stratigraphy Commission, InterAcademy Council, International Union
of Geodesy and Geophysics, International Union for Quaternary Research, National Association of Geoscience
Teachers [156], National Research Council (US), Royal Meteorological Society, and World Meteorological
Organization.
C. ^ Note that the greenhouse effect produces an average worldwide temperature increase of about 33 °C (59 °F)
compared to black body predictions without the greenhouse effect, not an average surface temperature of 33 °C
(91 °F). The average worldwide surface temperature is about 14 °C (57 °F).
D. ^ In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, published in 2007, this attribution is given a probability of greater than
90%, based on expert judgement.[157] According to the US National Research Council Report – Understanding
and Responding to Climate Change - published in 2008, "[most] scientists agree that the warming in recent
decades has been caused primarily by human activities that have increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere."[45]

References
[1] 2009 Ends Warmest Decade on Record (http:/ / earthobservatory. nasa. gov/ IOTD/ view. php?id=42392). NASA Earth Observatory Image of
the Day, January 22, 2010.
[2] IPCC (2007-05-04). "Summary for Policymakers" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-spm. pdf) (PDF).
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. . Retrieved 2009-07-03.
[3] "Understanding and Responding to Climate Change" (http:/ / americasclimatechoices. org/ climate_change_2008_final. pdf). United States
National Academy of Sciences. 2008. . Retrieved 30 May 2010. "Most scientists agree that the warming in recent decades has been caused
primarily by human activities that have increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."
[4] America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change; National Research Council (2010). Advancing the Science
of Climate Change (http:/ / www. nap. edu/ catalog. php?record_id=12782). Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press.
ISBN 0309145880. . "... there is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing
and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. While much remains to be learned, the core phenomenon, scientific
questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation
of alternative explanations."
[5] Lu, Jian; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Reichler, Thomas (2007). "Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming" (http:/ / www. atmos. berkeley.
edu/ ~jchiang/ Class/ Spr07/ Geog257/ Week10/ Lu_Hadley06. pdf) (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters 34 (6): L06805.
Bibcode 2007GeoRL..3406805L. doi:10.1029/2006GL028443. .
[6] IPCC (2007) (Full free text). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/
Global warming 12

publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report. htm). [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. Geneva,
Switzerland: IPCC. .
[7] "Future Ocean Acidification" (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ climatechange/ science/ futureoa. html). Climate Change Science. U.S. EPA.
2010-08-20. . Retrieved 2010-12-01.
[8] "What is Ocean Acidification?" (http:/ / www. pmel. noaa. gov/ co2/ story/ What+ is+ Ocean+ Acidification?). Pmel.noaa.gov. . Retrieved
2010-08-26.
[9] Oreskes, Naomi (December 2004). "BEYOND THE IVORY TOWER: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change" (http:/ / www.
sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ full/ 306/ 5702/ 1686). Science 306 (5702): 1686. doi:10.1126/science.1103618. PMID 15576594. . "Such
statements suggest that there might be substantive disagreement in the scientific community about the reality of anthropogenic climate change.
This is not the case. [...] Politicians, economists, journalists, and others may have the impression of confusion, disagreement, or discord among
climate scientists, but that impression is incorrect."
[10] "Joint Science Academies' Statement" (http:/ / nationalacademies. org/ onpi/ 06072005. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-08-09.
[11] "Understanding and Responding to Climate Change" (http:/ / dels. nas. edu/ resources/ static-assets/ materials-based-on-reports/ booklets/
climate_change_2008_final. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-08-09.
[12] "Article 2" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ essential_background/ convention/ background/ items/ 1353. php). The United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change.. . Retrieved 15 November 2005. "Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to
proceed in a sustainable manner"
[13] "Kyoto Protocol: Status of Ratification" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ files/ kyoto_protocol/ status_of_ratification/ application/ pdf/ kp_ratification.
pdf) (PDF). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2009-01-14. . Retrieved 2009-05-06.
[14] Joint science academies’ statement (16 May 2007). "Joint science academies’ statement: sustainability, energy efficiency and climate
protection" (http:/ / royalsociety. org/ Joint-science-academies-statement-sustainability-energy-efficiency-and-climate-protection/ ). UK Royal
Society website. . Retrieved 2010-04-17.
[15] NRC (2008). "Understanding and Responding to Climate Change" (http:/ / dels. nas. edu/ resources/ static-assets/
materials-based-on-reports/ booklets/ climate_change_2008_final. pdf). Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (http:/ / dels. nas. edu/
basc), US National Academy of Sciences. p. 4. . Retrieved 2010-11-09.
[16] USGRCP (n.d.). "Key Findings. On (website): Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States" (http:/ / www. globalchange. gov/
publications/ reports/ scientific-assessments/ us-impacts/ key-findings). U.S. Global Change Research Program website. . Retrieved
2010-04-17.
[17] IPCC (2007). "1. Observed changes in climate and their effects. In (section): Summary for Policymakers. In (book): Climate Change 2007:
Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.))" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ syr/ en/ spms1.
html). Book publisher: IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2010-04-17.
[18] Trenberth, Kevin E.; et al. (2007). "Chapter 3: Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/
assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter3. pdf) (PDF). IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/
ar4/ syr/ ar4_syr. pdf). Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. p. 244. .
[19] Jansen, E., J. Overpeck; Briffa, K.R.; Duplessy, J.-C.; Joos, F.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Olago, D.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Peltier, W.R. et al.
(2007-02-11). "Palaeoclimate" (http:/ / www. ipcc-wg1. unibe. ch/ publications/ wg1-ar4/ ar4-wg1-chapter6. pdf). In Marquis, S.; Qin, D.;
Manning, Z. et al.. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis : contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http:/ / www. worldcat. org/ title/
climate-change-2007-the-physical-science-basis-contribution-of-working-group-i-to-the-fourth-assessment-report-of-the-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-chan
oclc/ 132298563). IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press. pp. 466–478.
ISBN 978-0-521-70596-7. OCLC 132298563. .
[20] Hansen, James E.; et al. (2006-01-12). "Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS Surface Temperature Analysis" (http:/ / data. giss. nasa.
gov/ gistemp/ 2005/ ). NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. . Retrieved 2007-01-17.
[21] "NOAA/NCDC 2009 climate" (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2009& month=13). . Retrieved 2010-02-15.
[22] "Global Temperature for 2005: second warmest year on record" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070417183747/ http:/ / www. cru. uea.
ac. uk/ cru/ press/ 2005-12-WMO. pdf) (PDF). Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia.
2005-12-15. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. cru. uea. ac. uk/ cru/ press/ 2005-12-WMO. pdf) on April 17, 2007. . Retrieved
2007-04-13.
[23] "WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2005" (http:/ / www. wmo. int/ pages/ prog/ wcp/ wcdmp/ statement/ documents/
WMO998_E. pdf) (PDF). World Meteorological Organization. 2005-12-15. . Retrieved 2009-04-24.
[24] Changnon, Stanley A.; Bell, Gerald D. (2000). El Niño, 1997–1998: The Climate Event of the Century. London: Oxford University Press.
ISBN 0-19-513552-0.
[25] Knight, J.; Kenney, J.J.; Folland, C.; Harris, G.; Jones, G.S.; Palmer, M.; Parker, D.; Scaife, A. et al. (August 2009). "Do Global
Temperature Trends Over the Last Decade Falsify Climate Predictions? [in "State of the Climate in 2008" (http:/ / www. metoffice. gov. uk/
corporate/ pressoffice/ 2009/ global_temperatures_09. pdf)"] (PDF). Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc. 90 (8): S75–S79. . Retrieved 2009-09-08.
[26] Global temperature slowdown — not an end to climate change (http:/ / webarchive. nationalarchives. gov. uk/ + / http:/ www. metoffice.
gov. uk/ climatechange/ policymakers/ policy/ slowdown. html). UK Met Office. . Retrieved 2011-03-20.
Global warming 13

[27] "IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 3" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter3. pdf) (PDF).
2007-02-05. p. 237. . Retrieved 2009-03-14.
[28] Rowan T. Sutton, Buwen Dong, Jonathan M. Gregory (2007). "Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model
results and comparison with observations" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2007/ 2006GL028164. shtml). Geophysical Research
Letters 34 (2): L02701. doi:10.1029/2006GL028164. . Retrieved 2007-09-19.
[29] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001). "Atmospheric Chemistry and Greenhouse Gases" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ publications/
other/ ipcc_tar/ ?src=/ CLIMATE/ IPCC_TAR/ WG1/ 127. htm). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (http:/ / www. grida. no/
publications/ other/ ipcc_tar/ ?src=/ CLIMATE/ IPCC_TAR/ WG1/ ). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-01495-6. .
[30] Meehl, Gerald A.; et al. (2005-03-18). "How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ reprint/
307/ 5716/ 1769. pdf) (PDF). Science 307 (5716): 1769–1772. doi:10.1126/science.1106663. PMID 15774757. . Retrieved 2007-02-11.
[31] Hegerl, Gabriele C.; et al. (2007). "Understanding and Attributing Climate Change" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/
wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter9. pdf) (PDF). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. . "Recent estimates indicate a relatively small combined effect
of natural forcings on the global mean temperature evolution of the second half of the 20th century, with a small net cooling from the
combined effects of solar and volcanic forcings."
[32] Weart, Spencer (2008). "The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ co2. htm). The Discovery of
Global Warming. American Institute of Physics. . Retrieved 21 April 2009.
[33] IPCC (2007). "Chapter 1: Historical Overview of Climate Change Science" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/
ar4-wg1-chapter1. pdf) (PDF). IPCC WG1 AR4 Report. IPCC. pp. p97 (PDF page 5 of 36). . Retrieved 21 April 2009. "To emit 240 W m–2, a
surface would have to have a temperature of around −19 °C. This is much colder than the conditions that actually exist at the Earth’s surface
(the global mean surface temperature is about 14 °C). Instead, the necessary −19 °C is found at an altitude about 5 km above the surface."
[34] Kiehl, J.T.; Trenberth, K.E. (1997). "Earth's Annual Global Mean Energy Budget" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20080624223905/ http:/ /
www. atmo. arizona. edu/ students/ courselinks/ spring04/ atmo451b/ pdf/ RadiationBudget. pdf) (PDF). Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society 78 (2): 197–208. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0197:EAGMEB>2.0.CO;2. Archived from the original (http:/ /
www. atmo. arizona. edu/ students/ courselinks/ spring04/ atmo451b/ pdf/ RadiationBudget. pdf) on 2008-06-24. . Retrieved 21 April 2009.
[35] Schmidt, Gavin (6 Apr 2005). "Water vapour: feedback or forcing?" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php?p=142). RealClimate. .
Retrieved 21 April 2009.
[36] Russell, Randy (May 16, 2007). "The Greenhouse Effect & Greenhouse Gases" (http:/ / www. windows. ucar. edu/ tour/ link=/ earth/
climate/ greenhouse_effect_gases. html& edu=high). University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Windows to the Universe. . Retrieved
Dec 27, 2009.
[37] EPA (2007). "Recent Climate Change: Atmosphere Changes" (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ climatechange/ science/ recentac. html). Climate
Change Science Program. United States Environmental Protection Agency. . Retrieved 21 April 2009.
[38] Spahni, Renato; et al. (November 2005). "Atmospheric Methane and Nitrous Oxide of the Late Pleistocene from Antarctic Ice Cores".
Science 310 (5752): 1317–1321. doi:10.1126/science.1120132. PMID 16311333.
[39] Siegenthaler, Urs; et al. (November 2005). "Stable Carbon Cycle–Climate Relationship During the Late Pleistocene" (http:/ / www.
sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 310/ 5752/ 1313) (PDF). Science 310 (5752): 1313–1317. doi:10.1126/science.1120130.
PMID 16311332. . Retrieved 25 August 2010.
[40] Petit, J. R.; et al. (3 June 1999). "Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica" (http:/ /
www. daycreek. com/ dc/ images/ 1999. pdf) (PDF). Nature 399 (6735): 429–436. doi:10.1038/20859. . Retrieved 27 December 2009.
[41] Lüthi, Dieter; Le Floch, Martine; Bereiter, Bernhard; Blunier, Thomas; Barnola, Jean-Marc; Siegenthaler, Urs; Raynaud, Dominique; Jouzel,
Jean et al. (2008). "High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present". Nature 453 (7193): 379–382.
doi:10.1038/nature06949. PMID 18480821.
[42] Pearson, PN; Palmer, MR (2000). "Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 60 million years". Nature 406 (6797): 695–699.
doi:10.1038/35021000. PMID 10963587.
[43] IPCC (2001). "Summary for Policymakers" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ pdf/ WG1_TAR-FRONT. pdf) (PDF). Climate
Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. IPCC. . Retrieved 21 April 2009.
[44] Rogner et al., 2007. 1.3.1.2 Intensities (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ ch1s1-3-1-2. html)
[45] NRC (2008). "Understanding and Responding to Climate Change" (http:/ / dels. nas. edu/ resources/ static-assets/
materials-based-on-reports/ booklets/ climate_change_2008_final. pdf). Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (http:/ / dels. nas. edu/
basc), US National Academy of Sciences. p. 2. . Retrieved 2010-11-09.
[46] World Bank (2010). World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change (http:/ / go. worldbank. org/ BKLQ9DSDU0). The
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433.
doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-7987-5. ISBN 978-0-8213-7987-5. . Retrieved 2010-04-06.
[47] Fisher, B.S., N. Nakicenovic, K. Alfsen, J. Corfee Morlot, F. de la Chesnaye, J.-Ch. Hourcade, K. Jiang, M. Kainuma, E. La Rovere, A.
Matysek, A. Rana, K. Riahi, R. Richels, S. Rose, D. van Vuuren, R. Warren (2007). 3.1 Emissions scenarios. In (book chapter): Issues related
to mitigation in the long term context. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)) (http:/ / www.
ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ ch3s3-1. html). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and
Global warming 14

New York, NY, USA. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 978-0-521-70598-1. . Retrieved 2010-06-19.
[48] Morita, T. and J. Robertson (co-ordinating lead authors). A. Adegbulugbe, J. Alcamo, D. Herbert, E.L.L. Rovere, N. Nakicenovic, H.
Pitcher, P. Raskin, K. Riahi, A. Sankovski, V. Sokolov, B. de Vries, and D. Zhou (lead authors). K. Jiang, Ton Manders, Y. Matsuoka, S.
Mori, A. Rana, R.A. Roehrl, K.E. Rosendahl, and K. Yamaji (contributing authors). M. Chadwick and J. Parikh (review editors) (2001).
2.5.1.4 Emissions and Other Results of the SRES Scenarios. In (book chapter): 2. Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Scenarios and
Implications. In: Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz, O. Davidson, R. Swart, and J. Pan (eds.)) (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/
wg3/ 081. htm#2514). Print version: Cambridge University Press. This version: GRID-Arendal website. doi:10.2277/0521807697.
ISBN 978-0-521-80769-2. . Retrieved 2010-06-19.
[49] Rogner et al., 2007, Figure 1.7 (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ ch1s1-3-2-2. html)
[50] Prentice, I.C. (co-ordinating lead author). G.D. Farquhar, M.J.R. Fasham, M.L. Goulden, M. Heimann, V.J. Jaramillo, H.S. Kheshgi, C. Le
Quéré, R.J. Scholes, D.W.R. Wallace (lead authors). D. Archer, M.R. Ashmore, O. Aumont, D. Baker, M. Battle, M. Bender, L.P. Bopp, P.
Bousquet, K. Caldeira, P. Ciais, P.M. Cox, W. Cramer, F. Dentener, I.G. Enting, C.B. Field, P. Friedlingstein, E.A. Holland, R.A. Houghton,
J.I. House, A. Ishida, A.K. Jain, I.A. Janssens, F. Joos, T. Kaminski, C.D. Keeling, R.F. Keeling, D.W. Kicklighter, K.E. Kohfeld, W. Knorr,
R. Law, T. Lenton, K. Lindsay, E. Maier-Reimer, A.C. Manning, R.J. Matear, A.D. McGuire, J.M. Melillo, R. Meyer, M. Mund, J.C. Orr, S.
Piper, K. Plattner, P.J. Rayner, S. Sitch, R. Slater, S. Taguchi, P.P. Tans, H.Q. Tian, M.F. Weirig, T. Whorf, A. Yool (contributing authors). L.
Pitelka, A. Ramirez Rojas (review editors) (2001). Executive Summary. In (book chapter): 3. The Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric Carbon
Dioxide. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, C.A.
Johnson (eds)) (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 096. htm). Print version: Cambridge University Press. This version:
GRID-Arendal website. ISBN 978-0-521-80767-8. . Retrieved 2010-06-19.
[51] Nakicenovic., N., et al. (2001). "An Overview of Scenarios: Resource Availability" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc/ emission/ 104.
htm). IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. IPCC. . Retrieved 21 April 2009.
[52] Newell, P.J., 2000: Climate for change: non-state actors and the global politics of greenhouse. Cambridge University Press, ISBN
0521632501.
[53] "Americans Fail the Climate Quiz" (http:/ / www. npr. org/ 2010/ 12/ 03/ 131785444/ Americans-Fail-The-Climate-Quiz), National Public
Radio, 3 December 2010.
[54] Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg; Lacis, Andrew; Hansen, James; Ruedy, Reto; Aguilar, Elliot (2006). "Role of tropospheric ozone increases
in 20th-century climate change". Journal of Geophysical Research 111 (D8): D08302. Bibcode 2006JGRD..11108302S.
doi:10.1029/2005JD006348.
[55] Mitchell, J.F.B., et al. (2001). "Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes: Space-time studies" (http:/ / www. grida. no/
climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 462. htm). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. . Retrieved 21 April 2009.
[56] Hansen, J; Sato, M; Ruedy, R; Lacis, A; Oinas, V (2000). "Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario". Proc. Natl.
Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 97 (18): 9875–80. doi:10.1073/pnas.170278997. PMC 27611. PMID 10944197.
[57] Ramanathan, V.; Carmichael, G. (2008). "Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon". Nature Geosciences 1 (4): 221–227.
doi:10.1038/ngeo156.
[58] Lohmann, U. & J. Feichter (2005). "Global indirect aerosol effects: a review" (http:/ / www. atmos-chem-phys. net/ 5/ 715/ 2005/
acp-5-715-2005. html). Atmos. Chem. Phys. 5 (3): 715–737. doi:10.5194/acp-5-715-2005. .
[59] Twomey, S. (1977). "Influence of pollution on shortwave albedo of clouds". J. Atmos. Sci. 34 (7): 1149–1152.
doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1977)034<1149:TIOPOT>2.0.CO;2.
[60] Albrecht, B. (1989). "Aerosols, cloud microphysics, and fractional cloudiness". Science 245 (4923): 1227–1239.
doi:10.1126/science.245.4923.1227. PMID 17747885.
[61] IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B.
Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
[62] Ramanathan, V; Chung, C; Kim, D; Bettge, T; Buja, L; Kiehl, JT; Washington, WM; Fu, Q et al.; et al. (2005). "Atmospheric brown clouds:
Impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycle" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ content/ 102/ 15/ 5326. abstract). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 102
(15): 5326–5333. doi:10.1073/pnas.0500656102. PMC 552786. PMID 15749818. .
[63] Ramanathan, V., et al. (2008). "Report Summary" (http:/ / www. rrcap. unep. org/ abc/ impact/ files/ ABC_Report_Summary_Final. pdf)
(PDF). Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Regional Assessment Report with Focus on Asia. United Nations Environment Programme. .
[64] Ramanathan, V., et al. (2008). "Part III: Global and Future Implications" (http:/ / www. rrcap. unep. org/ abc/ publication/ Part III. pdf)
(PDF). Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Regional Assessment Report with Focus on Asia. United Nations Environment Programme. .
[65] National Research Council (1994). Solar Influences On Global Change (http:/ / books. nap. edu/ openbook. php?record_id=4778&
page=R1). Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. p. 36. ISBN 0-309-05148-7. .
[66] Lockwood, Mike; Fröhlich, Claus (8 June 2008). "Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air
temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale" (http:/ / rspa.
royalsocietypublishing. org/ content/ 464/ 2094/ 1367. abstract). Proc. R. Soc. A 464 (2094): 1367–85. doi:10.1098/rspa.2007.0347. .
Global warming 15

[67] Duffy, Santer and Wigley, " Solar variability does not explain late-20th-century warming (http:/ / www. clas. ufl. edu/ users/ prwaylen/
GEO2200ARTICLES/ Part1/ Solar variability in late 20th century. pdf)" Physics Today, January, 2009, pp 48-49. The authors respond to
recent assertions by Nicola Scafetta and Bruce West that solar forcing "might account" for up to about half of 20th-century warming.
[68] Hansen, J. (2002). "Climate". Journal of Geophysical Research 107 (D18): 4347. Bibcode 2002JGRD..107.4347H.
doi:10.1029/2001JD001143.
[69] Hansen, J. (2005). "Efficacy of climate forcings". Journal of Geophysical Research 110 (D18): D18104. Bibcode 2005JGRD..11018104H.
doi:10.1029/2005JD005776.
[70] Randel, William J.; Shine, Keith P.; Austin, John; Barnett, John; Claud, Chantal; Gillett, Nathan P.; Keckhut, Philippe; Langematz, Ulrike et
al. (2009). "An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends". Journal of Geophysical Research 114 (D2): D02107.
Bibcode 2009JGRD..11402107R. doi:10.1029/2008JD010421.
[71] Marsh, Nigel; Henrik, Svensmark (November 2000). "Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate" (http:/ / www. dsri. dk/ ~hsv/ SSR_Paper. pdf)
(PDF). Space Science Reviews 94 (1–2): 215–230. doi:10.1023/A:1026723423896. . Retrieved 2007-04-17.
[72] Lockwood, Mike; Claus Fröhlich (2007). "Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air
temperature" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070926023811/ http:/ / www. pubs. royalsoc. ac. uk/ media/ proceedings_a/ rspa20071880.
pdf) (PDF). Proceedings of the Royal Society A 463 (2086): 2447. doi:10.1098/rspa.2007.1880. Archived from the original (http:/ / www.
pubs. royalsoc. ac. uk/ media/ proceedings_a/ rspa20071880. pdf) on September 26, 2007. . Retrieved 2007-07-21. "Our results show that the
observed rapid rise in global mean temperatures seen after 1985 cannot be ascribed to solar variability, whichever of the mechanisms is
invoked and no matter how much the solar variation is amplified".
[73] T Sloan and A W Wolfendale (2008). "Testing the proposed causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover" (http:/ / www. iop. org/ EJ/
abstract/ 1748-9326/ 3/ 2/ 024001/ ). Environ. Res. Lett. 3 (2): 024001. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/2/024001. .
[74] Pierce, J.R. and P.J. Adams (2009). "Can cosmic rays affect cloud condensation nuclei by altering new particle formation rates?".
Geophysical Research Letters 36 (9): L09820. Bibcode 2009GeoRL..3609820P. doi:10.1029/2009GL037946.
[75] Lenton, T. M.; Held, H.; Kriegler, E.; Hall, J. W.; Lucht, W.; Rahmstorf, S.; Schellnhuber, H. J. (Feb 2008). "Tipping elements in the Earth's
climate system" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=18258748) (Free full text). Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences 105 (6): 1786–1793. doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105. PMC 2538841. PMID 18258748. .
[76] Denman, K.L., et al. (2007). "Chapter 7, Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter7. pdf) (PDF). Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. IPCC. . Retrieved 2008-02-21.
[77] Hansen, James (2000). "Climatic Change: Understanding Global Warming" (http:/ / books. google. com/ ?id=sx6DFr8rbpIC& dq=robert+
lanza& printsec=frontcover). In Robert Lanza. One World: The Health & Survival of the Human Species in the 21st century. Health Press
(New Mexico). pp. 173–190. ISBN 0-929173-33-3. . Retrieved 2007-08-18.
[78] Stocker, Thomas F.; et al. (2001). "7.2.2 Cloud Processes and Feedbacks" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 271. htm).
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change. IPCC. . Retrieved 2007-03-04.
[79] Torn, Margaret; Harte, John (2006). "Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming" (http:/ /
www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2006/ 2005GL025540. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 33 (10): L10703.
Bibcode 2006GeoRL..3310703T. doi:10.1029/2005GL025540. L10703. . Retrieved 2007-03-04.
[80] Harte, John; et al. (2006). "Shifts in plant dominance control carbon-cycle responses to experimental warming and widespread drought"
(http:/ / www. iop. org/ EJ/ article/ 1748-9326/ 1/ 1/ 014001/ erl6_1_014001. html). Environmental Research Letters 1 (1): 014001.
doi:10.1088/1748-9326/1/1/014001. 014001. . Retrieved 2007-05-02.
[81] Scheffer, Marten; et al. (2006). "Positive feedback between global warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration inferred from past climate
change." (http:/ / www. pik-potsdam. de/ ~victor/ recent/ scheffer_etal_T_CO2_GRL_in_press. pdf) (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters 33
(10): L10702. Bibcode 2006GeoRL..3310702S. doi:10.1029/2005gl025044. . Retrieved 2007-05-04.
[82] Randall, D.A., et al. (2007). "Chapter 8, Climate Models and Their Evaluation" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/
ar4-wg1-chapter8. pdf) (PDF). Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. . Retrieved 2009-03-21.
[83] Stroeve, J., et al. (2007). "Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast". Geophysical Research Letters 34 (9): L09501.
Bibcode 2007GeoRL..3409501S. doi:10.1029/2007GL029703.
[84] Wentz,FJ, et al. (2007). "How Much More Rain Will Global Warming Bring?" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 317/
5835/ 233). Science 317 (5835): 233–5. doi:10.1126/science.1140746. PMID 17540863. .
[85] Liepert, Beate G.; Previdi. < (2009). "Do Models and Observations Disagree on the Rainfall Response to Global Warming?" (http:/ /
journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 2008JCLI2472. 1). Journal of Climate 22 (11): 3156. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2472.1. . "Recently
analyzed satellite-derived global precipitation datasets from 1987 to 2006 indicate an increase in global-mean precipitation of 1.1%–1.4%
decade−1. This trend corresponds to a hydrological sensitivity (HS) of 7% K−1 of global warming, which is close to the Clausius–Clapeyron
(CC) rate expected from the increase in saturation water vapor pressure with temperature. Analysis of two available global ocean evaporation
datasets confirms this observed intensification of the atmospheric water cycle. The observed hydrological sensitivity over the past 20-yr period
is higher by a factor of 5 than the average HS of 1.4% K−1 simulated in state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models for the
twentieth and twenty-first centuries.".
[86] IPCC (2007d). "1.1 Observations of climate change. In (section): Synthesis Report. In (book): Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report.
Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core
Global warming 16

Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.))" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ syr/ en/ mains1. html). Book
version: IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2010-04-26.
[87] IPCC (2007d). "2.4 Attribution of climate change. In (section): Synthesis Report. In (book): Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report.
Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core
Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.))" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ syr/ en/ mains2-4. html). Book
version: IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2010-04-26.
[88] IPCC (2007d). "2. Causes of change. In (section): Summary for Policymakers. In (book): Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report.
Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core
Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.))" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ syr/ en/ spms2. html). Book
version: IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2010-04-26.
[89] IPCC (2007d). "3. Projected climate change and its impacts. In (section): Summary for Policymakers. In (book): Climate Change 2007:
Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.))" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ syr/ en/ spms3.
html). Book version: IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2010-04-26.
[90] IPCC (2007b). "Magnitudes of impact. In (section): Summary for Policymakers. In (book): Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (M.L.
Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds.)" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/
spmsspm-c-15-magnitudes-of. html). Book version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved
2010-04-26.
[91] Wang, M; J.E. Overland (2009). Geophys. Res. Lett 36. doi:10.1029/2009GL037820. http:/ / www. pmel. noaa. gov/ publications/
search_abstract. php?fmContributionNum=3261. Retrieved 2 May 2011.
[92] Fischlin, A., G.F. Midgley, J.T. Price, R. Leemans, B. Gopal, C. Turley, M.D.A. Rounsevell, O.P. Dube, J. Tarazona, A.A. Velichko (2007).
"Executive Summary. In (book chapter): Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (M.L.
Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds.)" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg2/
ar4-wg2-chapter4. pdf). Book version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. This version: IPCC website. p. 213. . Retrieved
2010-04-26.
[93] Schneider, S.H., S. Semenov, A. Patwardhan, I. Burton, C.H.D. Magadza, M. Oppenheimer, A.B. Pittock, A. Rahman, J.B. Smith, A. Suarez
and F. Yamin (2007). "19.3.4 Ecosystems and biodiversity. In (book chapter): Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and the Risk from Climate
Change. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds.)"
(http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch19s19-3-4. html). Book version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2010-04-26.
[94] Wilbanks, T.J., P. Romero Lankao, M. Bao, F. Berkhout, S. Cairncross, J.-P. Ceron, M. Kapshe, R. Muir-Wood and R. Zapata-Marti (2007).
"Executive summary" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch7s7-es. html). In M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P.
Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds. Industry, settlement and society. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print
version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2011-05-01.
[95] Schneider, S.H., S. Semenov, A. Patwardhan, I. Burton, C.H.D. Magadza, M. Oppenheimer, A.B. Pittock, A. Rahman, J.B. Smith, A. Suarez
and F. Yamin (2007). "19.3.3 Regional vulnerabilities" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch19s19-3-3. html). In
M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate
change. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A..
This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2011-05-01.
[96] Schneider, S.H., S. Semenov, A. Patwardhan, I. Burton, C.H.D. Magadza, M. Oppenheimer, A.B. Pittock, A. Rahman, J.B. Smith, A. Suarez
and F. Yamin (2007). "19.3.7 Update on ‘Reasons for Concern’" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch19s19-3-7.
html). In M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from
climate change. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York,
N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2011-05-01.
[97] Schneider, S.H., S. Semenov, A. Patwardhan, I. Burton, C.H.D. Magadza, M. Oppenheimer, A.B. Pittock, A. Rahman, J.B. Smith, A. Suarez
and F. Yamin (2007). "Table 19.1" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch19s19-3-1. html). In M.L. Parry, O.F.
Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Climate
Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This
version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2011-05-01.
[98] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007). "5.2 Key vulnerabilities, impacts and risks – long-term perspectives" (http:/ / www.
ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ syr/ en/ mains5-2. html). In Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.). Synthesis report.
Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Global warming 17

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2011-05-01.
[99] Schneider, S.H., S. Semenov, A. Patwardhan, I. Burton, C.H.D. Magadza, M. Oppenheimer, A.B. Pittock, A. Rahman, J.B. Smith, A. Suarez
and F. Yamin (2007). "19.3.2.1 Agriculture" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch19s19-3-2-1. html). In M.L.
Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change.
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This
version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2011-05-01.
[100] Yohe, G.W., R.D. Lasco, Q.K. Ahmad, N.W. Arnell, S.J. Cohen, C. Hope, A.C. Janetos and R.T. Perez (2007). "Figure 20.3" (http:/ /
www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch20s20-6-1. html). In M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and
C.E. Hanson, Eds. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version:
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2011-05-01.
[101] Stern, N. (2006). "6.2 What existing models calculate and include" (http:/ / www. hm-treasury. gov. uk/ d/
Chapter_6_Economic_modelling_of_climate-change_impacts. pdf) (PDF). 6 Economic modelling of climate-change impacts. Stern Review
Report on the Economics of Climate Change (pre-publication edition). HM Treasury website. pp. 147-148. . Retrieved 2011-04-28.
[102] Verbruggen, A. (ed.) (2007). Glossary J-P. In (book section): Annex I. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working
Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave,
L.A. Meyer (eds.)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ annex1sglossary-j-p. html). Print version: Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 978-0-521-88011-4. . Retrieved
2010-04-23.
[103] IPCC (2007). 4. Adaptation and mitigation options. In (book section): Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis
Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ syr/ en/ spms4. html). Print
version: IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 92-9169-122-4. . Retrieved 2010-04-26.
[104] Robinson, Simon (2010-01-22). "How to reduce Carbon emmissions: Capture and Store It?" (http:/ / www. time. com/ time/ specials/
packages/ article/ 0,28804,1954176_1954175,00. html). Time.com. . Retrieved 2010-08-09.
[105] Smit, B. and O. Pilifosova. Lead Authors: I. Burton, B. Challenger, S. Huq, R.J.T. Klein, G. Yohe. Contributing Authors: N. Adger, T.
Downing, E. Harvey, S. Kane, M. Parry, M. Skinner, J. Smith, J. Wandel. Review Editors: A. Patwardhan and J.-F. Soussana (2001). 18.2.3.
Adaptation Types and Forms. In (book chapter): Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development and Equity. In:
Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (J.J. McCarthy, O.F. Canziani, N.A. Leary, D.J. Dokken, K.S. White (eds.)) (http:/ / www. grida.
no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg2/ 644. htm#1823). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This
version: GRID-Arendal website. ISBN 0-521-80768-9. . Retrieved 2010-01-10.
[106] Barker, T., I. Bashmakov, A. Alharthi, M. Amann, L. Cifuentes, J. Drexhage, M. Duan, O. Edenhofer, B. Flannery, M. Grubb, M.
Hoogwijk, F. I. Ibitoye, C. J. Jepma, W.A. Pizer, K. Yamaji (2007). 11.2.2 Ocean fertilization and other geo-engineering options. In (book
chapter): Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer
(eds)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ ch11s11-2-2. html). Print version: Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 978-0-521-88011-4. . Retrieved 2010-04-05.
[107] IPCC (2007). C. Mitigation in the short and medium term (until 2030). In (book section): Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change
2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B.
Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ spmsspm-c. html).
Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website.
ISBN 978-0-521-88011-4. . Retrieved 2010-05-15.
[108] "Geoengineering the climate: science, governance and uncertainty" (http:/ / royalsociety. org/ Geoengineering-the-climate/ ). The Royal
Society. 1 September 2009. . Retrieved February 26, 2011.
[109] UNFCCC (n.d.). "Essential Background" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ essential_background/ items/ 2877. php). UNFCCC website. . Retrieved
2010-05-18.
[110] UNFCCC (n.d.). "Full text of the Convention, Article 2" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ essential_background/ convention/ background/ items/ 1353.
php). UNFCCC website. . Retrieved 2010-05-18.
[111] UNFCCC (n.d.). "Full text of the Convention, start" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ essential_background/ convention/ background/ items/ 1350. php).
UNFCCC website. . Retrieved 2010-05-18.
[112] Liverman, D.M. (2008). "Conventions of climate change: constructions of danger and the dispossession of the atmosphere" (http:/ / www.
webcitation. org/ 5qYB9VjBx). Journal of Historical Geography 35 (2): 12–14. doi:10.1016/j.jhg.2008.08.008. Archived from the original
(http:/ / www. eci. ox. ac. uk/ ~dliverma/ CV/ JHGE07-17. pdf) on 2010-06-17. . Retrieved 2009-08-08.
[113] UNFCCC (19 November 2007). "Compilation and synthesis of fourth national communications. Executive summary. Note by the
secretariat. Document code: FCCC/SBI/2007/INF.6" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ documentation/ documents/ advanced_search/ items/ 3594.
php?rec=j& priref=600004368#beg). United Nations Office at Geneva, Switzerland. p. 11. . Retrieved 2010-05-17.
Global warming 18

[114] UNFCCC (25 October 2005). "Sixth compilation and synthesis of initial national communications from Parties not included in Annex I to
the Convention. Note by the secretariat. Executive summary. Document code: FCCC/SBI/2005/18" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ documentation/
documents/ advanced_search/ items/ 3594. php?rec=j& priref=600003578#beg). United Nations Office at Geneva, Switzerland. p. 6. .
Retrieved 2010-05-17.
[115] Müller, Benito (February 2010) (PDF). Copenhagen 2009: Failure or final wake-up call for our leaders? EV 49 (http:/ / www.
oxfordenergy. org/ pdfs/ EV49. pdf). Dr Benito Müller's web page on the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies website. p. i.
ISBN 978190755046. . Retrieved 2010-05-18.
[116] UNFCCC (30 March 2010). "Decision 2/CP. 15 Copenhagen Accord. In: Report of the Conference of the Parties on its fifteenth session,
held in Copenhagen from 7 to 19 December 2009. Addendum. Part Two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its fifteenth session"
(http:/ / unfccc. int/ documentation/ documents/ advanced_search/ items/ 3594. php?rec=j& priref=600005735#beg) (PDF). United Nations
Office at Geneva, Switzerland. p. 5. . Retrieved 2010-05-17.
[117] "Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ files/
meetings/ cop_16/ application/ pdf/ cop16_lca. pdf). PRESIDENCIA DE LA REPÚBLICA, MÉXICO. 11 December 2010. p. 2. . Retrieved
12 January 2011.
[118] Rogner, H.-H., D. Zhou, R. Bradley. P. Crabbé, O. Edenhofer, B.Hare, L. Kuijpers, M. Yamaguchi (2007). "Executive Summary. In (book
chapter): Introduction. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds))" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ ch1s1-es. html). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New
York, NY, USA. Web version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2010-05-05.
[119] Banuri, T., K. Göran-Mäler, M. Grubb, H.K. Jacobson and F. Yamin (1996) (PDF). Equity and Social Considerations. In: Climate Change
1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (J.P. Bruce, H. Lee and E.F. Haites, (eds.)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ ipccreports/ sar/ wg_III/
ipcc_sar_wg_III_full_report. pdf). This version: Printed by Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. PDF
version: IPCC website. p. 87. doi:10.2277/0521568544. ISBN 978-0-521-56854-8. .
[120] Banuri et al., 1996, p. 83
[121] Banuri et al., 1996, pp. 94-95
[122] Grubb, M. (July–September 2003). "The Economics of the Kyoto Protocol" (http:/ / www. econ. cam. ac. uk/ rstaff/ grubb/ publications/
J36. pdf). World Economics 4 (3): 144. . Retrieved 2010-03-25.
[123] IEA (2005). "Energy Policies of IEA Countries — Australia- 2005 Review" (http:/ / www. iea. org/ publications/ free_new_Desc.
asp?PUBS_ID=1565). International Energy Agency (IEA), Head of Publications Service, 9 rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15,
France. p. 51. . Retrieved 2010-04-29.
[124] Dessai, S. (2001). "The climate regime from The Hague to Marrakech: Saving or sinking the Kyoto Protocol? Tyndall Centre Working
Paper 12" (http:/ / www. tyndall. ac. uk/ content/ climate-regime-hague-marrakech-saving-or-sinking-kyoto-protocol). Tyndall Centre website.
pp. 5–6. . Retrieved 2010-05-05.
[125] UNFCCC (20 January 2009). "Report of the in-depth review of the fourth national assessment communication of Australia" (http:/ / unfccc.
int/ documentation/ documents/ advanced_search/ items/ 3594. php?rec=j& priref=600004916#beg). United Nations Office at Geneva,
Switzerland. p. 3. . Retrieved 2010-05-05.
[126] "Rudd takes Australia inside Kyoto" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ asia-pacific/ 7124236. stm). BBC. 3 December 2007. . Retrieved 4
October 2010.
[127] Pelham, Brett (2009-04-22). "Awareness, Opinions About Global Warming Vary Worldwide" (http:/ / www. gallup. com/ poll/ 117772/
Awareness-Opinions-Global-Warming-Vary-Worldwide. aspx). Gallup. . Retrieved 2009-07-14.
[128] "Summary of Findings" (http:/ / people-press. org/ reports/ display. php3?ReportID=280). Little Consensus on Global Warming.
Partisanship Drives Opinion. Pew Research Center. 2006-07-12. . Retrieved 2007-04-14.
[129] Crampton, Thomas (2007-01-04). "More in Europe worry about climate than in U.S., poll shows" (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2007/ 01/
04/ health/ 04iht-poll. 4102536. html?_r=1). The New York Times. . Retrieved 2010-06-09.
[130] "Public attitudes towards climate change and the impact on transport (January 2011 report)" (http:/ / www. dft. gov. uk/ pgr/ statistics/
datatablespublications/ trsnstatsatt/ climatejan2011report). Department for Transport. 2011. p. 8. . Retrieved 3 February 2011.
[131] Damian Carrington (31 January 2011). "Public belief in climate change weathers storm, poll shows | Environment | guardian.co.uk" (http:/ /
www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2011/ jan/ 31/ public-belief-climate-change). The Guardian. . Retrieved 2011-02-04.
[132] "Fewer Americans See Solid Evidence of Global Warming" (http:/ / people-press. org/ report/ 556/ global-warming). Pew Research Center
for the People & the Press. October 22, 2009. . Retrieved February 26, 2011.
[133] Robin Lloyd (February 23, 2011). "Why Are Americans So Ill-Informed about Climate Change?: Scientists and journalists debate why
Americans still resist the consensus among research organizations that humans are warming the globe" (http:/ / www. scientificamerican. com/
article. cfm?id=why-are-americans-so-ill). Scientific American. Nature America, Inc.. . Retrieved February 26, 2011.
[134] (http:/ / www. rasmussenreports. com/ public_content/ politics/ current_events/ environment_energy/
59_say_scientists_disagree_significantly_over_global_warming) "59% Say Scientists Disagree 'Significantly' Over Global Warming,"
Rasmussen Reports
[135] Pugliese, Anita (April 20, 2011). "Fewer Americans, Europeans View Global Warming as a Threat" (http:/ / www. gallup. com/ poll/
147203/ Fewer-Americans-Europeans-View-Global-Warming-Threat. aspx). Gallup. . Retrieved 22 April 2011.
Global warming 19

[136] Wallace, D. and J. Houghton (March 2005). "A guide to facts and fictions about climate change" (http:/ / royalsociety. org/
Facts-and-fictions-about-climate-change/ ). UK Royal Society website. pp. 3–4. . Retrieved 2010-05-05.
[137] Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias (Brazil), Royal Society of Canada, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Académie des Sciences (France),
Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina (Germany), Indian National Science Academy, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy),
Science Council of Japan, Academia Mexicana de Ciencias, Russian Academy of Sciences, Academy of Science of South Africa, Royal
Society (United Kingdom), National Academy of Sciences (United States of America) (May 2009). "G8+5 Academies’ joint statement:
Climate change and the transformation of energy technologies for a low carbon future" (http:/ / www. nationalacademies. org/ includes/ G8+
5energy-climate09. pdf). US National Academies website. . Retrieved 2010-05-05.
[138] Weart, S. (July 2009). "The Public and Climate Change (cont. – since 1980). Section: After 1988" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/
public2. htm). American Institute of Physics website. . Retrieved 2010-05-05.
[139] SEPP (n.d.). "Frequently Asked Questions About Climate Change" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20080511011611/ http:/ / www. sepp.
org/ FAQ/ faq. html). Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) website. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. sepp. org/ FAQ/ faq.
html) on 2008-05-11. . Retrieved 2010-05-05.
[140] Begley, Sharon (2007-08-13). "The Truth About Denial" (http:/ / www. newsweek. com/ id/ 32482). Newsweek. . Retrieved 2007-08-13.
[141] Adams, David (2006-09-20). "Royal Society tells Exxon: stop funding climate change denial" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/
environment/ 2006/ sep/ 20/ oilandpetrol. business). London: The Guardian. . Retrieved 2007-08-09.
[142] "Exxon cuts ties to global warming skeptics" (http:/ / www. msnbc. msn. com/ id/ 16593606). MSNBC. 2007-01-12. . Retrieved
2007-05-02.
[143] Sandell, Clayton (2007-01-03). "Report: Big Money Confusing Public on Global Warming" (http:/ / abcnews. go. com/ Technology/
Business/ story?id=2767979& page=1). ABC. . Retrieved 2007-04-27.
[144] "About DBCCA" (http:/ / www. dbcca. com/ dbcca/ EN/ about-us. jsp). Deutsche Bank: DB Climate Change Advisors. Frankfurt am Main:
Deutsche Bank AG. 2010-05-12. . Retrieved 2010-11-05. "DB Climate Change Advisors is the brand name for the institutional climate change
investment division of Deutsche Asset Management, the asset management arm of Deutsche Bank AG."
[145] "Investment Research" (http:/ / www. dbcca. com/ dbcca/ EN/ investment_research. jsp). Deutsche Bank: DB Climate Change Advisors.
Frankfurt am Main: Deutsche Bank AG. 2010-11-02. . Retrieved 2010-11-05.
[146] Carr, Mary-Elena; Kate Brash, Robert F. Anderson (September 2010). "Climate Change: Addressing the Major Skeptic Arguments" (http:/
/ www. dbcca. com/ dbcca/ EN/ _media/ DBCCAColumbiaSkepticPaper090710. pdf) (PDF). DB Climate Change Advisors: Deutsche Bank
Group. p. 55. . Retrieved 2010-11-05. "The planet is warming and it is likely to continue to warm as a consequence of increased greenhouse
gas emissions."
[147] U.S. Global Change Research Program (June 6, 2009). "New Report Provides Authoritative Assessment of National, Regional Impacts of
Global Climate Change" (http:/ / www. globalchange. gov/ images/ cir/ pdf/ Climate-Impacts-PR_june-6-2009. pdf) (PDF). Press release. .
Retrieved 2009-06-27.
[148] Reuters (May 18, 2007). "Greenpeace: Exxon still funding climate skeptics" (http:/ / www. usatoday. com/ weather/ climate/
globalwarming/ 2007-05-18-greenpeace-exxon_N. htm). USA Today. . Retrieved Jan 21, 2010.
[149] Ceres (May 13, 2004). "Global Warming Resolutions at U.S. Oil Companies Bring Policy Commitments from Leaders, and Record High
Votes at Laggards" (http:/ / www. csrwire. com/ press/ press_release/
23395-Global-Warming-Resolutions-at-U-S-Oil-Companies-Bring-Policy-Commitments-from-Leaders-and-Record-High-Votes-at-Laggards).
Press release. . Retrieved 2010-03-04.
[150] Stefan (28 July 2010). "Happy 35th birthday, global warming!" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php/ archives/ 2010/ 07/
happy-35th-birthday-global-warming/ ). RealClimate. . Retrieved 10 August 2010. "[Broecker's article is] the first of over 10,000 papers for
this search term according to the ISI database of journal articles"
[151] Johnson, Brad (3 August 2010). "Wally's World" (http:/ / www. foreignpolicy. com/ articles/ 2010/ 08/ 03/ wallys_world). Foreign Policy.
. Retrieved 10 August 2010.
[152] Wallace Broecker, "Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?" Science, vol. 189 (8 August 1975),
460-463.
[153] Erik Conway. "What's in a Name? Global Warming vs. Climate Change" (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/ topics/ earth/ features/
climate_by_any_other_name. html), NASA, December 5, 2008
[154] National Academy of Science, Carbon Dioxide and Climate, Washington, D.C., 1979, p. vii.
[155] U.S. Senate, Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, "Greenhouse Effect and Global Climate Change, part 2" 100th Cong., 1st sess.,
23 June 1988, p. 44.
[156] http:/ / www. nagt. org/ index. html
[157] IPCC (2007d). "Introduction. In (section): Synthesis Report. In (book): Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working
Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K
and Reisinger, A. (eds.))" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ syr/ en/ mainssyr-introduction. html). Book version: IPCC,
Geneva, Switzerland. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2010-04-26.
Global warming 20

Further reading
• Association of British Insurers (2005–06) (PDF). Financial Risks of Climate Change (http://www.climatewise.
org.uk/storage/610/financial_risks_of_climate_change.pdf).
• Ammann, Caspar; et al. (2007). "Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient
simulations with the NCAR Climate Simulation Model" (http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/104/10/3713.pdf)
(PDF). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104 (10): 3713–3718.
doi:10.1073/pnas.0605064103. PMC 1810336. PMID 17360418. "Simulations with only natural forcing
components included yield an early 20th century peak warming of ≈0.2 °C (≈1950 AD), which is reduced to
about half by the end of the century because of increased volcanism".
• Barnett, TP; Adam, JC; Lettenmaier, DP; Adam, J. C.; Lettenmaier, D. P. (2005-11-17). "Potential impacts of a
warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions" (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/
v438/n7066/abs/nature04141.html) (abstract). Nature 438 (7066): 303–309. doi:10.1038/nature04141.
PMID 16292301.
• Behrenfeld, MJ; O'malley, RT; Siegel, DA; Mcclain, CR; Sarmiento, JL; Feldman, GC; Milligan, AJ; Falkowski,
PG et al.; et al. (2006-12-07). "Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity" (http://www.icess.
ucsb.edu/~davey/MyPapers/Behrenfeld_etal_2006_Nature.pdf) (PDF). Nature 444 (7120): 752–755.
doi:10.1038/nature05317. PMID 17151666.
• Choi, Onelack; Fisher, Ann (May 2005). "The Impacts of Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change on
Severe Weather Catastrophe Losses: Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and the U.S." (http://www.springerlink.com/
content/m6308777613702q0/). Climate Change 58 (1–2): 149–170. doi:10.1023/A:1023459216609.
• Dyurgerov, Mark B.; Meier, Mark F. (2005) (PDF). Glaciers and the Changing Earth System: a 2004 Snapshot
(http://instaar.colorado.edu/other/download/OP58_dyurgerov_meier.pdf). Institute of Arctic and Alpine
Research Occasional Paper #58. ISSN 0069-6145.
• Emanuel, K (2005-08-04). "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years." (ftp://texmex.
mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdf) (PDF). Nature 436 (7051): 686–688.
doi:10.1038/nature03906. PMID 16056221.
• Hansen, James; et al. (2005-06-03). "Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications" (http://pangea.
stanford.edu/research/Oceans/GES205/Hansen_Science_Earth's Energy Balance.pdf) (PDF). Science 308
(5727): 1431–1435. doi:10.1126/science.1110252. PMID 15860591.
• Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe; Hmelo, Laura R.; Sylva, Sean P. (2003-02-21). "Molecular Fossil Record of Elevated
Methane Levels in Late Pleistocene Coastal Waters". Science 299 (5610): 1214–1217.
doi:10.1126/science.1079601. PMID 12595688.
• Hirsch, Tim (2006-01-11). "Plants revealed as methane source" (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/
4604332.stm). BBC.
• Hoyt, Douglas V.; Schatten, Kenneth H. (1993–11). "A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations,
1700–1992". Journal of Geophysical Research 98 (A11): 18,895–18,906. Bibcode 1993JGR....9818895H.
doi:10.1029/93JA01944.
• Karnaukhov, A. V. (2001). "Role of the Biosphere in the Formation of the Earth’s Climate: The Greenhouse
Catastrophe" (http://avturchin.narod.ru/Green.pdf) (PDF). Biophysics 46 (6).
• Kenneth, James P.; et al. (2003-02-14). Methane Hydrates in Quaternary Climate Change: The Clathrate Gun
Hypothesis (https://www.agu.org/cgi-bin/agubooks?book=ASSP0542960). American Geophysical Union.
• Keppler, Frank; et al. (2006-01-18). "Global Warming – The Blame Is not with the Plants" (http://www.mpg.
de/english/illustrationsDocumentation/documentation/pressReleases/2006/pressRelease200601131/index.
html). Max Planck Society.
• Lean, Judith L.; Wang, Y.M.; Sheeley, N.R. (2002–12). "The effect of increasing solar activity on the Sun's total
and open magnetic flux during multiple cycles: Implications for solar forcing of climate" (abstract). Geophysical
Research Letters 29 (24): 2224. Bibcode 2002GeoRL..29x..77L. doi:10.1029/2002GL015880.
Global warming 21

• Lerner, K. Lee; Lerner, K. Lee; Wilmoth, Brenda (2006-07-26). Environmental issues: essential primary sources.
Thomson Gale. ISBN 1-4144-0625-8.
• Muscheler, Raimund, R; Joos, F; Müller, SA; Snowball, I; et al. (2005-07-28). "Climate: How unusual is today's
solar activity?" (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/raimund/publications/Muscheler_et_al_Nature2005.pdf)
(PDF). Nature 436 (7012): 1084–1087. doi:10.1038/nature04045. PMID 16049429.
• Oerlemans, J. (2005-04-29). "Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records" (http://www.cosis.net/
abstracts/EGU05/04572/EGU05-J-04572.pdf) (PDF). Science 308 (5722): 675–677.
doi:10.1126/science.1107046. PMID 15746388.
• Purse, BV; Mellor, PS; Rogers, DJ; Samuel, AR; Mertens, PP; Baylis, M; et al. (February 2005). "Climate change
and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe" (http://www.nature.com/nrmicro/journal/v3/n2/abs/
nrmicro1090_fs.html) (abstract). Nature Reviews Microbiology 3 (2): 171–181. doi:10.1038/nrmicro1090.
PMID 15685226.
• Revkin, Andrew C (2005-11-05). "Rise in Gases Unmatched by a History in Ancient Ice" (http://www.nytimes.
com/2005/11/25/science/earth/25core.html?ei=5090&en=d5078e33050b2b0c&ex=1290574800&
adxnnl=1&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss). The New York Times.
• Ruddiman, William F. (2005-12-15). Earth's Climate Past and Future (http://www.whfreeman.com/ruddiman/
). New York: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-7167-3741-8.
• Ruddiman, William F. (2005-08-01). Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate.
New Jersey: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-12164-8.
• Solanki, SK; Usoskin, IG; Kromer, B; Schüssler, M; Beer, J; et al. (2004-10-23). "Unusual activity of the Sun
during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years." (http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/
nature02995.pdf) (PDF). Nature 431 (7012): 1084–1087. doi:10.1038/nature02995. PMID 15510145.
• Solanki, Sami K.; et al. (2005-07-28). "Climate: How unusual is today's solar activity? (Reply)" (http://cc.oulu.
fi/~usoskin/personal/sola_nature05.pdf) (PDF). Nature 436 (7050): E4–E5. doi:10.1038/nature04046.
• Sowers, Todd (2006-02-10). "Late Quaternary Atmospheric CH4 Isotope Record Suggests Marine Clathrates Are
Stable". Science 311 (5762): 838–840. doi:10.1126/science.1121235. PMID 16469923.
• Svensmark, Henrik; et al. (2007-02-08). "Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under
atmospheric conditions". Proceedings of the Royal Society A (FirstCite Early Online Publishing) 463 (2078):
385–396. doi:10.1098/rspa.2006.1773.(online version requires registration)
• Walter, KM; Zimov, SA; Chanton, JP; Verbyla, D; Chapin Fs, 3rd; et al. (2006-09-07). "Methane bubbling from
Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming". Nature 443 (7107): 71–75.
doi:10.1038/nature05040. PMID 16957728.
• Wang, Y.-M.; Lean, J.L.; Sheeley, N.R. (2005-05-20). "Modeling the sun's magnetic field and irradiance since
1713" (http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/Wang_2005.pdf) (PDF). Astrophysical Journal 625
(1): 522–538. Bibcode 2005ApJ...625..522W. doi:10.1086/429689.
• Royal Society (2005). "Joint science academies' statement: Global response to climate change" (http://
royalsociety.org/Joint-science-academies-statement-Global-response-to-climate-change/). Retrieved 19 April
2009.
Global warming 22

External links
Research
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.ipcc.ch/) — collection of IPCC reports
• NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/)  - Global change research
• NOAA State of the Climate Report (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2011/2)  - U.S. and global
monthly state of the climate reports
• United States Global Change Research Program (http://www.globalchange.gov/)  - Global climate change
research in the United States
• Climate Change at the National Academies (http://dels.nas.edu/Climate/Climate-Change/
Reports-Academies-Findings) — repository for reports
• Nature Reports Climate Change (http://www.nature.com/climate/index.html) — free-access web resource
• Met Office: Climate change (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/) — UK National Weather Service
• Global Science and Technology Sources on the Internet (http://www.istl.org/01-fall/internet.html) —
extensive commented list of internet resources
• Educational Global Climate Modelling (http://edgcm.columbia.edu/) (EdGCM) — research-quality climate
change simulator
• DISCOVER (http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/) — satellite-based ocean and climate data since 1979 from NASA
• Global Warming Art (http://www.globalwarmingart.com/) — collection of figures and images
Educational
• What Is Global Warming? (http://green.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/gw-overview.
html) — by National Geographic
• Global Climate Change Indicators (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators/)  - from NOAA
• NOAA Climate Services (http://www.climate.gov/#understandingClimate)  - from NOAA
• Global Warming Frequently Asked Questions (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.
html) — from NOAA
• Understanding Climate Change – Frequently Asked Questions (http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/
climatechange/faqs.jsp) — from UCAR
• Global Climate Change: NASA's Eyes on the Earth (http://climate.jpl.nasa.gov/) — from NASA's JPL and
Caltech
• OurWorld 2.0 (http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/series/climate/) — from the United Nations University
• Pew Center on Global Climate Change (http://www.pewclimate.org/) — business and politics
• Best Effort Global Warming Trajectories – Wolfram Demonstrations Project (http://demonstrations.wolfram.
com/BestEffortGlobalWarmingTrajectories/) — by Harvey Lam
• Koshland Science Museum – Global Warming Facts and Our Future (http://www.koshland-science-museum.
org/exhibitgcc/) — graphical introduction from National Academy of Sciences
• The Discovery of Global Warming – A History (http://www.aip.org/history/climate) — by Spencer R. Weart
from The American Institute of Physics
• Climate Change: Coral Reefs on the Edge (http://site.videoproject.com/coralreefs/) — A video presentation
by Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Auckland
• Climate Change Indicators in the United States (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html) Report
by United States Environmental Protection Agency, 80 pp.
• Global Warming (http://chemistry.beloit.edu/Warming/index.html)
• Video on the effects of global warming on St. Lawrence Island in the Bering Sea (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/
nova/extremeice/thin_01_q_300.html)
Instrumental temperature record 23

Instrumental temperature record

Instrumental global surface temperature record since widespread reliable measurements began in the late 19th century; see also [1]

Map of the land-based long-term monitoring stations included in the Global Historical Climatology Network. Colors indicate the length of the
temperature record available at each site.

The instrumental temperature record shows fluctuations of the temperature of the global land surface and oceans.
This data is collected from several thousand meteorological stations, Antarctic research stations and satellite
observations of sea-surface temperature. As seen in the figure, the X axis represents the time, and the Y axis
represents temperature anomaly in degree Celsius. Anomaly means departure from a baseline. In this figure, the
1961–1990 global mean temperature is used as the baseline value. The annual mean global temperature is subtracted
from this base value and the result obtained is plotted on the graph corresponding to the year on X axis. Currently,
the longest-running temperature record is the Central England temperature data series, that starts in 1659. The
longest-running quasi-global record starts in 1850.[2]

Global records databases


Currently, the Hadley Centre maintains the HADCRUT3, a global surface temperature dataset,[3] NASA maintains
GISTEMP, which provides a measure of the changing global surface temperature with monthly resolution for the
period since 1880,[4] and the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) maintains
the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Monthly) data base contains historical temperature,
precipitation, and pressure data for thousands of land stations worldwide.[5] Also, NOAA's National Climatic Data
Center (NCDC), which has "the world's largest active archive"[6] of surface temperature measurements, maintains a
Instrumental temperature record 24

global temperature record since 1880.[7]

The global record from 1850


The period for which reasonably reliable instrumental records of near-surface temperature exist with quasi-global
coverage is generally considered to begin around 1850. Earlier records exist, but with sparser coverage and less
standardized instrumentation.
The temperature data for the record come from measurements from land stations and ships. On land, temperature
sensors are kept in a Stevenson screen or a maximum minimum temperature system (MMTS). The sea record
consists of surface ships taking sea temperature measurements from engine inlets or buckets. The land and marine
records can be compared.[8] Land and sea measurement and instrument calibration is the responsibility of national
meteorological services [9]. Standardization of methods is organized through the World Meteorological Organization
and its predecessor, the International Meteorological Organization.[10]
Currently, most meteorological observations are taken for use in weather forecasts. Centers such as ECMWF show
instantaneous map of their coverage [11]; or the Hadley Centre show the coverage for the average of the year 2000
[12]
. Coverage for earlier in the 20th and 19th centuries would be significantly less. While temperature changes vary
both in size and direction from one location to another, the numbers from different locations are combined to
produce an estimate of a global average change.
There are concerns about possible uncertainties in the instrumental temperature record including the fraction of the
globe covered, the effects of changing thermometer designs and observing practices, and the effects of changing
land-use around the observing stations. The ocean temperature record too suffers from changing practices (such as
the switch from collecting water in canvas buckets to measuring the temperature from engine intakes[13] ) but they
are immune to the urban heat island effect or to changes in local land use/land cover (LULC) at the land surface
station.

Warming in the instrumental temperature record

Comparison of ground based (blue) and satellite based (red: UAH; green: RSS) records of global surface temperature change from 1979-2009.
Linear trends plotted since 1982.
Instrumental temperature record 25

Global surface temperature change for the period 1980-2004. The blue line is the monthly average, the black line is the annual average and the red
line is the 5-year running average. Data source: http:/ / www. cru. uea. ac. uk/

Most of the observed warming occurred during two periods: 1910 to 1945 and 1976 to 2000; the cooling/plateau
from 1945 to 1976 has been mostly attributed to sulphate aerosol.[14] However, a study in 2008 suggests that the
temperature drop of about 0.3°C in 1945 could be the apparent result of uncorrected instrumental biases in the sea
surface temperature record.[13] Attribution of the temperature change to natural or anthropogenic factors is an
important question: see global warming and attribution of recent climate change.
Land and sea measurements independently show much the same warming since 1860.[15] The data from these
stations show an average surface temperature increase of about 0.74 °C during the last 100 years. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) that the
temperature rise over the 100 year period from 1906–2005 was 0.74 °C [0.56 to 0.92 °C] with a confidence interval
of 90%.
For the last 50 years, the linear warming trend has been 0.13 °C [0.10 to 0.16 °C] per decade according to AR4.
The U.S. National Academy of Sciences, both in its 2002 report to President George W. Bush, and in later
publications, has strongly endorsed evidence of an average global temperature increase in the 20th century.[16]
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report found that the instrumental temperature record for the past century included
urban heat island effects but that these were primarily local, having a negligible influence on global temperature
trends (less than 0.006 °C per decade over land and zero over the oceans).
For more information about the effects or otherwise of urbanization on the temperature record, see the main article:
Urban heat island effect
Instrumental temperature record 26

Spatial variability

1901–2008 global temperature trend

Global Land temperature anomaly 1880-2010. Global Ocean temperature anomaly 1880-2010.

The global temperature changes are not uniform over the globe, nor would they be expected to be, whether the
changes were naturally or humanly forced.
Temperature trends from 1901 are positive over most of the world's surface except for Atlantic Ocean south of
Greenland, the south-eastern USA and parts of Bolivia. Warming is strongest over interior land area in Asia and
North America as well as south-eastern Brazil and some area in the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans.
Since 1979 temperatures increase is considerably stronger over land while cooling has been observed over some
oceanic regions in the Pacific Ocean and Southern Hemisphere, the spatial pattern of ocean temperature trend in
those regions is possibly related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Southern Anular Mode.[17]
Seasonal temperature trends are positive over most of the globe but weak cooling is observed over the mid latitudes
of the southern ocean but also over eastern Canada in spring due to strengthening of the North Atlantic Oscillation,
warming is stronger over northern Europe, China and North America in winter, Europe and Asia interior in spring,
Europe and north Africa in summer and northern North America, Greenland and Eastern Asia in autumn. Enhanced
warming over north Eurasia is partly linked to the Northern Anular Mode,[18] [19] while in the southern hemisphere
the trend toward stronger westerlies over the southern ocean favoured a cooling over much of Antarctica with the
exception of the Antarctic Peninsula where strong westerlies decrease cold air outbreak from the south.[20] The
Antarctic Peninsula has warmed by 2.5 °C (4.5 °F) in the past five decades at Bellingshausen Station.[21]
Instrumental temperature record 27

Calculating the global temperature


Deriving a reliable global temperature from the instrument data is not easy because the instruments are not evenly
distributed across the planet, the hardware and observing locations have changed over the years, and there has been
extensive land use change (such as urbanization) around some of the sites.
The calculation needs to filter out the changes that have occurred over time that are not climate related (e.g. urban
heat islands), then interpolate across regions where instrument data has historically been sparse (e.g. in the southern
hemisphere and at sea), before an average can be taken.
There are three main datasets showing analyses of global temperatures, all developed since the late 1970s: the
HadCRUT analysis is compiled in a collaboration between the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit
and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research,[22][23], independent analyses largely based on the same
raw data are produced using different levels of interpolation by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies and by the
National Climatic Data Center.[24] These datasets are updated on a monthly basis and are generally in close
agreement.
In the late 1990s, the Goddard team used the same data to produce a global map of temperature anomalies to
illustrate the difference between the current temperature and average temperatures prior to 1950 across every part of
the globe.[25]

Temperature processing software


In September 2007, the GISTEMP software which is used to process the GISS version of the historical instrument
data was made public. The software that was released has been developed over more than 20 years by numerous staff
and is mostly in FORTRAN; large parts of it were developed in the 1980s before massive amounts of computer
memory was available as well as modern programming languages and techniques.
Two recent open source projects have been developed by individuals to re-write the processing software in modern
open code. One, http:/ / www. opentemp. org/ , was by John van Vliet. More recently, a project which began in April
2008 (Clear Climate Code [26]) by staff of Ravenbrook Ltd to update the code to Python has so far detected two
minor bugs in the original software which did not significantly change any results.[27]

Uncertainties in the temperature record


A number of scientists and scientific organizations have expressed concern about the possible deterioration of the
land surface observing network.[28] [29] [30] [31] Climate scientist Roger A. Pielke has stated that he has identified a
number of sites where poorly sited stations in sparse regions "will introduce spatially unrepresentative data into the
analyses."[32] University of Alabama-Huntsville professor of atmospheric science and former IPCC lead author John
Christy has stated that "[t]he temperature records cannot be relied on as indicators of global change."[33] The
metadata needed to quantify the uncertainty from poorly sited stations does not currently exist. Pielke has called for a
similar documentation effort for the rest of the world.[34]
The uncertainty in annual measurements of the global average temperature (95% range) is estimated to be ≈0.05°C
since 1950 and as much as ≈0.15°C in the earliest portions of the instrumental record. The error in recent years is
dominated by the incomplete coverage of existing temperature records. Early records also have a substantial
uncertainty driven by systematic concerns over the accuracy of sea surface temperature measurements.[35] [36]
Station densities are highest in the northern hemisphere, providing more confidence in climate trends in this region.
Station densities are far lower in other regions such as the tropics, northern Asia and the former Soviet Union. This
results in less confidence in the robustness of climate trends in these areas. If a region with few stations includes a
poor quality station, the impact on global temperature would be greater than in a grid with many weather stations.[37]
Instrumental temperature record 28

Evaluation of the United States land surface temperature record


In 1999 a panel of the U.S. National Research Council studied the state of US climate observing systems.[38] The
panel evaluated many climate measurement aspects, 4 of which had to do with temperature, against ten climate
monitoring principles proposed by Karl et al. 1995. Land surface temperature had "known serious deficiencies" in 5
principles, vertical distribution and sea surface in 9 and subsurface ocean in 7.
The U.S. National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program has established minimum standards regarding the
instrumentation, siting, and reporting of surface temperature stations.[39] The observing systems available are able to
detect year-to-year temperature variations such as those caused by El Niño or volcanic eruptions.[40] These stations
can undergo undocumented changes such as relocation, changes in instrumentation and exposure (including changes
in nearby thermally emitting structures), changes in land use (e.g., urbanization), and changes in observation
practices. All of these changes can introduce biases into the stations' long term records. In the past, these local biases
were generally considered to be random and therefore would cancel each other out using many stations and the ocean
record.[40]
A 2006 paper analyzed a subset of U.S. surface stations, 366 stations, and found that 95% displayed a warming trend
after land use/land cover (LULC) changes. The authors stated "this does not necessarily imply that the LULC
changes are the causative factor."[41] Another study [42] has documented examples of well and poorly sited
monitoring stations in the United States, including ones near buildings, roadways, and air conditioning exhausts.
Brooks investigated Historical Climate Network (USHCN) sites in Indiana, and assigned 16% of the sites an
‘excellent’ rating, 59% a ‘good’ rating, 12.5% a ‘fair’ rating, and 12.5% ‘poor’ rating.[43] Davey and Pielke visited 10
HCN sites in Eastern Colorado, but did not provide percentages of good or badly sited stations. They stated that
some of the sites "are not at all representative of their surrounding region" and should be replaced in the instrumental
temperature records with other sites from the U.S. cooperative observer network.[44]
Peterson has argued that existing empirical techniques for validating the local and regional consistency of
temperature data are adequate to identify and remove biases from station records, and that such corrections allow
information about long-term trends to be preserved.[45] Pielke and co-authors disagree.[46]

Warmest years
The list of warmest years on record is dominated by years from this millennium; each of the last 10 years
(2001–2010) features as one of the 11 warmest on record. Although the NCDC temperature record begins in 1880,
less accurate reconstructions of earlier temperatures suggest these years may be the warmest for several centuries to
millennia.

20 warmest years on record (°C anomaly from 1901–2000 mean)


Year [47] [48] [49]
Global Land Ocean

[50] 0.6183 0.9593 0.4896


2005

[51] 0.6171 0.9642 0.4885


2010

[52] 0.5984 0.8320 0.5090


1998

[53] 0.5832 0.7735 0.5108


2003

[54] 0.5762 0.8318 0.4798


2002

[55] 0.5623 0.8158 0.4669


2006

[56] 0.5591 0.7595 0.4848


2009
Instrumental temperature record 29

[57] 0.5509 0.9852 0.3900


2007

[58] 0.5441 0.7115 0.4819


2004

[59] 0.5188 0.7207 0.4419


2001

[60] 0.4842 0.7801 0.3745


2008

1997 0.4799 0.5583 0.4502

[61] 0.4210 0.6759 0.3240


1999

1995 0.4097 0.6533 0.3196

[62] 0.3899 0.5174 0.3409


2000

1990 0.3879 0.5479 0.3283

1991 0.3380 0.4087 0.3110

1988 0.3028 0.4192 0.2595

1987 0.2991 0.2959 0.3005

1994 0.2954 0.3604 0.2704

1983 0.2839 0.3715 0.2513

The values in the table above are anomalies from the 1901–2000 global mean of 13.9°C.[63] For instance, the
+0.55°C anomaly in 2007 added to the 1901–2000 mean of 13.9°C gives a global average temperature of 14.45 °C
(58.00 °F) for 2007.[64]
The coolest year in the record was 1911.[47]

Warmest Decades
Numerous cycles have been found to influence annual
global mean temperatures. The tropical El Niño-La
Niña cycle and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are the
most well-known of these cycles.[65] An examination of
the average global temperature changes by decades
reveals continuing climate change.[66] Following chart
is from NASA data [67] of combined land-surface air
and sea-surface water temperature anomalies [68].

1880-2010 Global annual and decadal mean surface temperature


change.
Instrumental temperature record 30

Years Temp. anomaly


(°C anomaly (°F anomaly) from 1951–1980 mean)

1880–1889 −0.274 °C (−0.493 °F)

1890–1899 −0.254 °C (−0.457 °F)

1900–1909 −0.259 °C (−0.466 °F)

1910–1919 −0.276 °C (−0.497 °F)

1920–1929 −0.175 °C (−0.315 °F)

1930–1939 −0.043 °C (−0.0774 °F)

1940–1949 0.035 °C (0.0630 °F)

1950–1959 −0.02 °C (−0.0360 °F)

1960–1969 −0.014 °C (−0.0252 °F)

1970–1979 −0.001 °C (−0.00180 °F)

1980–1989 0.176 °C (0.317 °F)

1990–1999 0.313 °C (0.563 °F)

2000–2009 0.513 °C (0.923 °F)

References
[1] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ figspm-1. htm
[2] Brohan, P., J.J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S.F.B. Tett, P.D. Jones (2006). "Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature
changes: a new dataset from 1850". J. Geophys. Res. 111: D12106. Bibcode 2006JGRD..11112106B. doi:10.1029/2005JD006548.
[3] "Climate monitoring and data sets" (http:/ / www. metoffice. gov. uk/ research/ climate/ climate-monitoring). Met Office. . Retrieved
2011-02-11.
[4] "Datasets & Images – GISS Surface Temperature Analysis" (http:/ / data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp/ ). Goddard Institute for Space Studies. .
Retrieved 2007-07-13.
[5] "GHCN-Monthly Version 2" (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ oa/ climate/ ghcn-monthly/ index. php). NOAA. . Retrieved 2007-07-13.
[6] NCDC State of the Climate Global Analysis, April 2010 (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2010& month=4)
[7] "Global Surface Temperature Anomalies" (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ cmb-faq/ anomalies. html). National Climatic Data Center. .
Retrieved 2010-06-16.
[8] Houghton et al. (eds) (2001). "Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis – Figure 2.6" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/
ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig2-6. htm). IPCC. . Retrieved 2007-07-13.
[9] http:/ / www. wmo. int/ pages/ members/ index_en. html
[10] (PDF) Guide to the Global Observing System (http:/ / www. wmo. ch/ pages/ prog/ www/ OSY/ Manual/ 488_Guide_2007. pdf). WMO.
2007. ISBN 92-63-13488-3. . Retrieved 2007-07-13.
[11] http:/ / www. ecmwf. int/ products/ forecasts/ d/ overview/ monitoring/ coverage/ dcover!ssmi!00!pop!od!oper!w_coverage!latest!obs/
[12] http:/ / www. meto. gov. uk/ research/ hadleycentre/ CR_data/ Annual/ HadCRUTanm_2000. gif
[13] Thompson D.W.J., J.J. Kennedy, J.M. Wallace and P.D. Jones (2008). "A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed
global-mean surface temperature". Nature 453 (7195): 646–649. doi:10.1038/nature06982. PMID 18509442.
[14] Houghton et al.(eds) (2001). "Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis – Chapter 12: Detection of Climate Change and
Attribution of Causes" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 462. htm). IPCC. . Retrieved 2007-07-13.
[15] Houghton et al.(eds) (2001). "Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis – Chapter 2: Observed Climate Variability and
Change" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig2-6. htm). IPCC. . Retrieved 2007-07-13.
[16] "Understanding and Responding to Climate Change – Highlights of National Academies Reports" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/
20070611231645/ http:/ / dels. nas. edu/ dels/ rpt_briefs/ climate-change-final. pdf) (PDF). United States National Academies. 2005. Archived
from the original (http:/ / dels. nas. edu/ dels/ rpt_briefs/ climate-change-final. pdf) on 2007-06-11. . Retrieved 2007-07-13.
[17] "IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 3" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter3. pdf) (PDF).
2007-02-05. pp. 250–251. . Retrieved 2009-03-14.
[18] Polyakov, I.V.; Roman V. Bekryaev, Uma S. Bhatt, Roger L. Colony, Alexander P. Maskshtas, David Walsh,Roman V. Bekryaev and
Genrikh V. Alekseev (2003). "Variability and trends of air temperature in the Maritime Arctic" (http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ perlserv/
?request=res-loc& uri=urn:ap:pdf:doi:10. 1175/ 1520-0442(2003)016<2067:VATOAT>2. 0. CO;2). J. Clim. 16: 2067–2077.
doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2067:VATOAT>2.0.CO;2. .
Instrumental temperature record 31

[19] Liu, J.P.; J.A. Curry, Y.J. Da, Radley Horton (2007). "Causes of the northern high-latitude land surface winter climate change" (http:/ /
www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2007/ 2007GL030196. shtml). Geophys. Res. Lett. 34: L14702. Bibcode 2007GeoRL..3414702L.
doi:10.1029/2007GL030196. .
[20] David W. J. Thompson and Susan Solomon (2002). "Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change" (http:/ / ao. atmos.
colostate. edu/ other_papers/ ThompsonSolomon_Science2002. pdf). Science 296 (5569): 895–899. doi:10.1126/science.1069270.
PMID 11988571. .
[21] "Antarctic temperature data – Monthly mean surface temperature data and derived statistics for some Antarctic stations" (http:/ / www.
antarctica. ac. uk/ met/ gjma/ ). British Antarctic Survey. . Retrieved 2007-07-13.
[22] http:/ / www. cru. uea. ac. uk/ cru/ about/ history/
[23] http:/ / www. metoffice. gov. uk/ hadobs/ hadcrut3/
[24] Met Office Hadley Centre observations datasets FAQ (http:/ / www. metoffice. gov. uk/ hadobs/ indicators/ index. html)
"GISS Surface Temperature Analysis" (http:/ / data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp/ ). .
NCDC: Global Surface Temperature Anomalies (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ cmb-faq/ anomalies. html)
[25] Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, J. Glascoe, Mki. Sato (1999). "GISS analysis of surface temperature change" (http:/ / pubs. giss. nasa. gov/ abstracts/
1999/ Hansen_etal. html). J. Geophys. Res. 104: 30997–31022. Bibcode 1999JGR...10430997H. doi:10.1029/1999JD900835. .
[26] http:/ / clearclimatecode. org/
[27] "GISS Surface Temperature Analysis – Updates to Analysis" (http:/ / data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp/ updates/ ). NASA. . Retrieved
2008-10-16.
[28] UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (http:/ / unfccc. int/ cop3/ resource/ docs/ 1997/ sbsta/
misc06. htm) October 1997
[29] Menne MJ, Frederick HV, Del Greco SA (2005). "Monitoring the health of weather and climate observing networks" (http:/ / ams. confex.
com/ ams/ Annual2005/ techprogram/ paper_84693. htm). 21st International Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS)
for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology. .
[30] "Monitoring the Health of Weather and Climate Observing Networks" (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ oa/ hofn/ ). Health of the Networks.
National Climatic Data Center. .
[31] The Need for a Systems Approach to Climate Observations (http:/ / www. cgd. ucar. edu/ cas/ trenberth. pdf/ sysneedBAMS. pdf) Trenberth,
Karl, and Spence
[32] Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group Weblog (http:/ / climatesci. colorado. edu/ 2006/ 12/ 12/
new-evidence-of-temperature-observing-sites-which-are-poorly-sited-with-resepct-to-the-construction-of-global-average-land-surface-temperature-trends/
)
[33] The Sunday Times, February 14, 2010 (http:/ / www. timesonline. co. uk/ tol/ news/ environment/ article7026317. ece)
[34] Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group Weblog (http:/ / climatesci. org/ 2007/ 06/ 01/
more-on-obtaining-global-historical-climate-network-sites/ )
[35] Brohan, P., J.J. Kennedy, I. Haris, S.F.B. Tett, P.D. Jones (2006). "Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature
changes: a new dataset from 1850" (http:/ / www. cru. uea. ac. uk/ cru/ data/ temperature/ HadCRUT3_accepted. pdf) (PDF). J. Geophys. Res.
111: D12106. Bibcode 2006JGRD..11112106B. doi:10.1029/2005JD006548. .
[36] Folland, C.K., N.A. Rayner, S.J. Brown, T.M. Smith, S.S.P. Shen, D.E. Parker, I. Macadam, P.D. Jones, R.N. Jones, N. Nicholls, D.M.H.
Sexton (2001). "Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861" (http:/ / www. geog. ox. ac. uk/ ~mnew/ teaching/
Online_Articles/ folland_et_al_temp_uncertainties_GRL_2001. PDF) (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters 28: 2621–2624.
Bibcode 2001GeoRL..28.2621F. doi:10.1029/2001GL012877. .
[37] Davey, C.A.; Pielke Sr., R.A. (2007?). Comparing Station Density and Reported Temperature Trends for Land-Surface Sites, 1979-2004
(http:/ / climatesci. colorado. edu/ publications/ pdf/ R-319. pdf). Roger A. Pielke Sr. (submitted to Climatic change). . Retrieved 2007-07-13.
[38] Adequacy of Climate Observing Systems (http:/ / books. nap. edu/ catalog. php?record_id=6424)
[39] NOAA National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program: Proper Siting (http:/ / www. nws. noaa. gov/ om/ coop/ standard. htm)
[40] Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences. (http:/ / www. climatescience. gov/
Library/ sap/ sap1-1/ finalreport/ default. htm) Thomas R. Karl, Susan J. Hassol, Christopher D. Miller, and William L. Murray, editors, 2006.
A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, DC.
[41] Land use/land cover change effects on temperature trends at U.S. Climate Normals stations (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2006. . . /
2006GL026358. shtml)
[42] Mahmood R, Foster SA, Logan D (2006). "The GeoProfile metadata, exposure of instruments, and measurement bias in climatic record
revisited" (http:/ / www3. interscience. wiley. com/ cgi-bin/ abstract/ 112518278/ ABSTRACT). International Journal of Climatology 26 (8):
1091–1124. doi:10.1002/joc.1298. .
[43] Indiana State Climate Office (http:/ / www. agry. purdue. edu/ climate/ / hcn. asp)
[44] Bulleting of the American Meteorological Society (http:/ / pielkeclimatesci. files. wordpress. com/ 2009/ 10/ r-274. pdf) Volume 86 Number
4 April 2005
[45] Examination of Potential Biases in Air Temperature Caused By Poor Station Locations (http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ archive/ 1520-0477/
87/ 8/ pdf/ i1520-0477-87-8-1073. pdf) Peterson, Thomas
[46] Documentation of Uncertainties and Biases Associated with Surface Temperature Measurement Sites for Climate Change Assessment (http:/
/ ams. allenpress. com/ archive/ 1520-0477/ 88/ 6/ pdf/ i1520-0477-88-6-913. pdf) Pielke et alia.
Instrumental temperature record 32

[47] NCDC: The Annual Global (land and ocean combined) Anomalies (ftp:/ / ftp. ncdc. noaa. gov/ pub/ data/ anomalies/ annual. land_ocean.
90S. 90N. df_1901-2000mean. dat)
[48] NCDC: The Annual Global Land Temperature Anomalies (ftp:/ / ftp. ncdc. noaa. gov/ pub/ data/ anomalies/ annual. land. 90S. 90N.
df_1901-2000mean. dat)
[49] NCDC: The Annual Global Ocean Temperature Anomalies (ftp:/ / ftp. ncdc. noaa. gov/ pub/ data/ anomalies/ annual. ocean. 90S. 90N.
df_1901-2000mean. dat)
[50] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2005& month=13
[51] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2010& month=13
[52] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=1998& month=13
[53] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2003& month=13
[54] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2002& month=13
[55] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2006& month=13
[56] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2009& month=13
[57] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2007& month=13
[58] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2004& month=13
[59] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2001& month=13
[60] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2008& month=13
[61] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=1999& month=13
[62] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2000& month=13
[63] NCDC: Global Surface Temperature Anomalies: Global Mean Temperature Estimates (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ cmb-faq/ anomalies.
html#mean)
[64] NCDC State of the Climate Global Analysis, Annual 2007 (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ index. php?report=global& year=2007&
month=13)
[65] Natural Climate Oscillations of Short Duration and the Long Term Climate Warming – Sorting Out the Climate System USGCRP Seminar,
20 March 2000 Updated 13 August, 2004 (http:/ / www. usgcrp. gov/ usgcrp/ seminars/ 000320FO. html)
[66] NASA Research Finds Last Decade was Warmest on Record, 2009 One of Warmest Years (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/ home/ hqnews/ 2010/
jan/ HQ_10-017_Warmest_temps. html)
[67] http:/ / data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp/ tabledata/ GLB. Ts+ dSST. txt
[68] http:/ / data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp/

• IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) WGI Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) (http://www.ipcc.ch/
SPM2feb07.pdf)
• Global average temperature for the last 150 years (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/figspm-1.htm)
and discussion (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/056.htm#fig27) of trends
• Preliminary data from the last 2000 years (ftp://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/pub/mann/mannjones03.pdf)

External links
• The EdGCM project has provided GISTEMP stations in (http://dev.edgcm.columbia.edu/wiki/GISTEMP/)
Google Earth
• GISTemp – A Human View (http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/11/09/gistemp-a-human-view/),
introduction & overview, how it's made.
• Met.office Global-average temperature records (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/
explained/explained5.html), condensed explanation
Temperature record of the past 1000 years 33

Temperature record of the past 1000 years


For information on the description of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age in various IPCC reports
see MWP and LIA in IPCC reports
The temperature record of the 2nd
millennium describes the reconstruction of
temperatures since 1000 CE on the Northern
Hemisphere, later extended back to 1 CE
and also to cover the southern hemisphere.
A reconstruction is needed because a
reliable surface temperature record exists
only since about 1850. Studying past
climate is of interest for scientists in order to
improve the understanding of current
climate variability and, relatedly, providing
a better basis for future climate projections.
In particular, if the nature and magnitude of
natural climate variability can be
established, scientists will be able to better Reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures for the 2nd millennium
according to various older articles (bluish lines), newer articles (reddish lines), and
detect and attribute anthropogenic global
instrumental record (black line)
warming. Note, however, that although
temperature reconstructions from proxy data
help us understand the character of natural climate variability, attribution of recent climate change relies on a broad
range of methodologies of which the proxy reconstructions are only a small part.[1] [2]

According to all major temperature reconstructions published in peer-reviewed journals (see graph), the increase in
temperature in the 20th century and the temperature in the late 20th century is the highest in the record. Attention has
tended to focus on the early work of Michael E. Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1998), whose "hockey stick" graph was
featured in the 2001 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The methodology and data
sets used in creating the Mann et al. (1998) version of the hockey stick graph are disputed by Stephen McIntyre and
Ross McKitrick, but the graph is overall acknowledged by the scientific community.
Temperature record of the past 1000 years 34

General techniques and


accuracy
By far the best observed period is from 1850
to the present day, with coverage improving
over time. Over this period the recent
instrumental record, mainly based on direct
thermometer readings, has approximately
global coverage. It shows a general warming
in global temperatures.

Before this time various proxies must be


used. These proxies are less accurate than
direct thermometer measurements, have
lower temporal resolution, and have less
spatial coverage. Their only advantage is
that they enable a longer record to be
reconstructed. Since the direct temperature
record is more accurate than the proxies
(indeed, it is needed to calibrate them) it is Instrumental Temperature record of the last 150 years.
used when available: i.e, from 1850
onwards.

Quantitative methods using proxy data


As there are few instrumental records before 1850, temperatures before then must be reconstructed based on proxy
methods. One such method, based on principles of dendroclimatology, uses the width and other characteristics of
tree rings to infer temperature. The isotopic composition of snow, corals, and stalactites can also be used to infer
temperature. Other techniques which have been used include examining records of the time of crop harvests, the
treeline in various locations, and other historical records to make inferences about the temperature. These proxy
reconstructions are indirect inferences of temperature and thus tend to have greater uncertainty than instrumental
data.
In general, the recent history of the proxy records is calibrated against local temperature records to estimate the
relationship between temperature and the proxy. The longer history of the proxy is then used to reconstruct
temperature from earlier periods. Proxy records must be averaged in some fashion if a global or hemispheric record
is desired. Considerable care must be taken in the averaging process; for example, if a certain region has a large
number of tree ring records, a simple average of all the data would strongly over-weight that region. Hence
data-reduction techniques such as principal components analysis are used to combine some of these regional records
before they are globally combined. An important distinction is between so-called 'multi-proxy' reconstructions,
which attempt to obtain a global temperature reconstructions by using multiple proxy records distributed over the
globe and more regional reconstructions. Usually, the various proxy records are combined arithmetically, in some
weighted average. More recently, Osborn and Briffa used a simpler technique, counting the proportion of records
that are positive, negative or neutral in any time period.[3] [4] This produces a result in general agreement with the
conventional multi-proxy studies.
Several reconstructions suggest there was minimal variability in temperatures prior to the 20th century (see, for
example, [5]). More recently, Mann and Jones have extended their reconstructions to cover the 1st and 2nd millennia
(GRL, 2003 [6] ). The work was reproduced by Wahl and Ammann in 2005 according to a press release [7] published
Temperature record of the past 1000 years 35

computer code [8] and a paper in press.[9]


The Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1998) version of the temperature record is known as the "Hockey Stick" graph, first
coined by Jerry Mahlman, director of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.
The work of Mann et al., Jones et al., Briffa and others [10] [11] forms a major part of the IPCC's conclusion that "the
rate and magnitude of global or hemispheric surface 20th century warming is likely to have been the largest of the
millennium, with the 1990s and 1998 likely to have been the warmest decade and year".[12]

Qualitative reconstruction using historical records


It is also possible to use historical data such as times of grape harvests, sea-ice-free periods in harbours and diary
entries of frost or heatwaves to produce indications of when it was warm or cold in particular regions. These records
are harder to calibrate, are often only available sparsely through time, may be available only from developed regions,
and are unlikely to come with good error estimates. These historical observations of the same time period show
periods of both warming and cooling.
Astrophysicist Sallie Baliunas notes that these temperature variations correlate with solar activity[13] and asserts that
the number of observed sunspots give us a rough measure of how bright the sun is. Balunias and others have
suggested that periods of decreased solar radiation are partially responsible for historically recorded periods of
cooling such as the Maunder Minimum and the Little Ice Age. The same argument would imply that periods of
increased solar radiation contributed to the Medieval Warm Period, when Greenland's icy coastal areas thawed
enough to permit farming and colonisation.

Limitations
The apparent differences between the quantitative and qualitative approaches are not fully reconciled. The
reconstructions mentioned above rely on various assumptions to generate their results. If these assumptions do not
hold, the reconstructions would be unreliable. For quantitative reconstructions, the most fundamental assumptions
are that proxy records vary with temperature and that non-temperature factors do not confound the results. In the
historical records temperature fluctuations may be regional rather than hemispheric in scale.
In a letter to Nature (August 10, 2006) Bradley, Hughes and Mann[14] pointed at the original title of their 1998
article: Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties, and limitations[15]
and pointed out more widespread high-resolution data are needed before more confident conclusions can be reached
and that the uncertainties were the point of the article.

The hockey stick controversy


There is an ongoing debate about the details of the temperature record and the means of its reconstruction, centered
on the Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1998), "hockey stick" graph. Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick [16] claimed
various errors in the methodology of Mann et al. (1998) and that the method of Mann, Bradley, and Hughes when
tested on persistent red noise, nearly always produces a hockey stick shaped first principal component. In turn,
Michael E. Mann (supported by Tim Osborn, Keith Briffa and Phil Jones of the Climatic Research Unit) has
disputed the claims made by McIntyre and McKitrick.[17] [18] The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report says that
McIntyre and McKitrick "may have some theoretical foundation, but Wahl and Ammann (2006)[9] also show that the
impact on the amplitude of the final reconstruction is very small (~0.05°C)."[19]
Temperature record of the past 1000 years 36

References
[1] Houghton 2001 12. Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 439. htm)
[2] "What If … the "Hockey Stick" Were Wrong?" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php/ archives/ 2005/ 01/
what-if-the-hockey-stick-were-wrong/ ). RealClimate. 2005-01-27. .
[3] Osborn, T. J.; Briffa, K. R. (2006). "The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years" (http:/ / www.
sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 311/ 5762/ 841). Science (AAAS) 311 (5762): 841–844. doi:10.1126/science.1120514.
PMID 16469924. .
[4] "A New Take on an Old Millennium" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php/ archives/ 2006/ 02/ a-new-take-on-an-old-millennium/ ).
RealClimate. 2006-02-09. .
[5] http:/ / www. cru. uea. ac. uk/ cru/ info/ milltemp/
[6] Mann ME, Jones PD (August 2003). "Global Surface Temperatures over the Past Two Millennia" (http:/ / www. ngdc. noaa. gov/ paleo/
pubs/ mann2003b/ mann2003b. html). Global Surface Temperatures over the Past Two Millennia 30 (15): 1820. doi:10.1029/2003GL017814.
.
[7] The Hockey Stick Controversy: New Analysis Reproduces Graph of Late 20th Century Temperature Rise - Media Advisory (http:/ / www.
ucar. edu/ news/ releases/ 2005/ ammann. shtml)
[8] R Code for Mann-Bradley-Hughes (MBH) Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction (http:/ / www. cgd. ucar. edu/ ccr/ ammann/
millennium/ CODES_MBH. html)
[9] Wahl ER, Ammann CM (November 2007). "Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, Hughes reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere surface
temperatures: Examination of criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy climate evidence" (http:/ / www. cgd. ucar. edu/ ccr/
ammann/ millennium/ refs/ Wahl_ClimChange2007. pdf) (PDF). Climatic Change 85 (1-2): 33–69. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9105-7. .
[10] Houghton 2001 Figure 2.20: Millennial Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction (blue) and instrumental data (red) from AD
1000 to 1999 (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig2-20. htm)
[11] Houghton 2001 Figure 2.21: Comparison of warm-season and annual mean multi-proxy-based and warm season tree-ring-based millennial
Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig2-21. htm)
[12] Houghton 2001 2.3.5 Summary (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 071. htm)
[13] Powell, Alvin (April 24, 2003). "Sun's warming is global: CfA lecture links solar activity and climate change" (http:/ / www. news. harvard.
edu/ gazette/ 2003/ 04. 24/ 04-sun. html). Harvard University Gazette. . Retrieved 2007-04-17.
[14] Bradley RS, Hughes MK, Mann ME (August 2006). "Authors were clear about hockey-stick uncertainties". Nature 442 (7103): 627.
doi:10.1038/442627b. PMID 16900179.
[15] Mann ME, Bradley RS, Hughes MK (1999). "Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and
limitations" (https:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ paleo/ pubs/ millennium-camera. pdf) (PDF). Geophys. Res. Lett. 26 (6): 759–762.
doi:10.1029/1999GL900070. .
[16] McIntyre S, McKitrick R (2005). "Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/
2005/ 2004GL021750. shtml). Geophys. Res. Lett. 32: L03710. doi:10.1029/2004GL021750. .
[17] (http:/ / www. cru. uea. ac. uk/ ~timo/ paleo/ )
[18] Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley, Malcolm K. Hughes Note on Paper by McIntyre and McKitrick in "Energy and Environment"
(http:/ / www. meteo. psu. edu/ ~mann/ shared/ articles/ EandEPaperProblem. pdf)
[19] Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Ch. 6 (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter6. pdf)

External links
• Houghton, John Theodore, ed (2001). Climate change 2001: the scientific basis: contribution of Working Group I
to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.grida.no/
climate/ipcc_tar/wg1). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-80767-0.
• A collection of various reconstructions of global and local temperature from centuries on up (http://www.ngdc.
noaa.gov/paleo/recons.html)
• An NOAA collection of individual data records (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/data.html)
• Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11676.html)
Historical climatology 37

Historical climatology
Historical climatology is the study of historical changes in climate and their effect on human history and
development. This differs from paleoclimatology which encompasses climate change over the entire history of the
earth. The study seeks to define periods in human history where temperature or precipitation varied from what is
observed in the present day. The primary sources include written records such as sagas, chronicles, maps and local
history literature as well as pictorial representations such as paintings, drawings and even rock art. The
archaeological record is equally important in establishing evidence of settlement, water and land usage.

Techniques of historical climatology


In literate societies, historians may find written evidence of climatic variations over hundreds or thousands of years,
such as phenological records of natural processes, for example viticultural records of grape harvest dates. In
preliterate or non-literate societies, researchers must rely on other techniques to find evidence of historical climate
differences.
Past population levels and habitable ranges of humans or plants and animals may be used to find evidence of past
differences in climate for the region. Palynology, the study of pollens, can show not only the range of plants and to
reconstruct possible ecology, but to estimate the amount of precipitation in a given time period, based on the
abundance of pollen in that layer of sediment or ice.

Evidence of climatic variations


The eruption of the Toba supervolcano, 70,000 to 75,000 years ago reduced the average global temperature by 5
degrees Celsius for several years and may have triggered an ice age. It has been postulated that this created a
bottleneck in human evolution. A much smaller but similar effect occurred after the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883,
when global temperatures fell for about 5 years in a row.
Before the retreat of glaciers at the start of the Holocene (~9600 BC), ice sheets covered much of the northern
latitudes and sea levels were much lower than they are today. The start of our present interglacial period appears to
have helped spur the development of human civilization.

Human record
Evidence of a warm climate in Europe, for example, comes from
archaeological studies of settlement and farming in the Early Bronze Age at
altitudes now beyond cultivation, such as Dartmoor, Exmoor, the Lake
district and the Pennines in England. The climate appears to have deteriorated
towards the Late Bronze Age however. Settlements and field boundaries have
been found at high altitude in these areas, which are now wild and
uninhabitable. They include Dartmoor and Exmoor as well as the Pennines
and Lake District in the United Kingdom. Grimspound on Dartmoor is well
preserved and shows the standing remains of an extensive settlement in a now
inhospitable environment.

Some parts of the present Saharan desert may have been populated when the
The 16th-century Skálholt map of Norse
climate was cooler and wetter, judging by cave art and other signs of
America
settlement in Prehistoric Central North Africa.
Historical climatology 38

The Medieval Warm Period was a time of warm weather between


about AD 800–1300, during the European Medieval period.
Archaeological evidence supports studies of the Norse sagas whuich
describe the settlement of Greenland in the 9th century AD of land
now quite unsuitable for cultivation. For example, excavations at one
settlement site have shown the presence of birch trees during the early
Viking period. The same period records the discovery of an area called
Vinland, probably in North America, which may also have been
warmer than at present, judging by the alleged presence of grape vines.
One of Grimspound's hut circles
The interlude is known as the Medieval Warm Period.

Little Ice Age


Later examples include the Little Ice Age, well documented by paintings, documents (such as diaries) and events
such as the River Thames frost fairs held on frozen lakes and rivers in the 17th and 18th centuries. The River
Thames was made more narrow and flowed faster after old London Bridge was demolished in 1831, and the river
was embanked in stages during the 19th century, both of which made the river less liable to freezing. Among the
earliest references to the coming climate change is an entry in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicles dated 1046:
• "And in this same year after the 2nd of February came the severe winter with frost and snow, and with all kinds of
bad weather, so that there was no man alive who could remember so severe a winter as that, both through
mortality of men and disease of cattle; both birds and fishes perished through the great cold and hunger."
The Chronicle is the single most important historical source for the period in England between the departure of the
Romans and the decades following the Norman Conquest. Much of the information given in the Chronicle is not
recorded elsewhere.
The Little Ice Age brought colder winters to parts of
Europe and North America. In the mid-17th century,
glaciers in the Swiss Alps advanced, gradually
engulfing farms and crushing entire villages. The River
Thames and the canals and rivers of the Netherlands
often froze over during the winter, and people skated
and even held frost fairs on the ice. The first Thames
frost fair was in 1607; the last in 1814, although
changes to the bridges and the addition of an
embankment affected the river flow and depth, hence
diminishing the possibility of freezes. The freeze of the The Frozen Thames, 1677

Golden Horn and the southern section of the Bosphorus


took place in 1622. In 1658, a Swedish army marched across the Great Belt to Denmark to invade Copenhagen. The
Baltic Sea froze over, enabling sledge rides from Poland to Sweden, with seasonal inns built on the way. The winter
of 1794/1795 was particularly harsh when the French invasion army under Pichegru could march on the frozen rivers
of the Netherlands, while the Dutch fleet was fixed in the ice in Den Helder harbour. In the winter of 1780, New
York Harbour froze, allowing people to walk from Manhattan to Staten Island. Sea ice surrounding Iceland extended
for miles in every direction, closing that island's harbours to shipping.
Historical climatology 39

The severe winters affected human life in ways large and small. The
population of Iceland fell by half, but this was perhaps also due to
fluorosis caused by the eruption of the volcano Laki in 1783.Iceland
also suffered failures of cereal crops and people moved away from a
grain-based diet. The Norse colonies in Greenland starved and
vanished (by the 15th century) as crops failed and livestock could not
be maintained through increasingly harsh winters, though Jared
Diamond noted that they had exceeded the agricultural carrying
The last written records of the Norse
capacity before then. In North America, American Indians formed
Greenlanders are from a 1408 marriage in the
church of Hvalsey — today the best-preserved of leagues in response to food shortages. In Southern Europe, in Portugal,
the Norse ruins. snow storms were much more frequent while today they are rare. There
are reports of heavy snowfalls in the winters of 1665, 1744 and 1886.
In contrast to its uncertain beginning, there is a consensus that the Little Ice Age ended in the mid-19th century.

Evidence of anthropogenic climate change


Through deforestation and agriculture, some scientists have proposed a human component in some historical climatic
changes. Human-started fires have been implicated in the transformation of much of Australia from grassland to
desert.[1] If true, this would show that even a primitive society could have a role in influencing regional climate.
Deforestation, desertification and the salinization of soils may have contributed to or caused other climatic changes
throughout human history.
For a discussion of recent human involvement in climatic changes, see Attribution of recent climate change.

References
[1] Miller GH, Fogel ML, Magee JW, Gagan MK, Clarke SJ, Johnson BJ (July 2005). "Ecosystem Collapse in Pleistocene Australia and a
Human Role in Megafaunal Extinction" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 309/ 5732/ 287). Science 309 (5732): 287–290.
doi:10.1126/science.1111288. PMID 16002615. .

External links
• US Historical Climatology Network (http://cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/ushcn/newushcn.html)
• Historical climatology and the cultural memory of extreme weather events (http://www.eh-resources.org/
podcast/podcast.html#29) - Exploring Environmental History Podcast featuring Christian Pfister
Paleoclimatology 40

Paleoclimatology
Paleoclimatology (also
palaeoclimatology) is the study of
changes in climate taken on the scale
of the entire history of Earth. It uses a
variety of proxy methods from the
Earth and life sciences to obtain data
previously preserved within (e.g.)
rocks, sediments, ice sheets, tree rings,
corals, shells and microfossils; it then
uses these records to determine the
past states of the Earth's various
climate regions and its atmospheric system.

Paleoclimatology has wider implications for climate change today. Scientists often consider past changes in
environment and biodiversity to reflect on the current situation, and specifically the impact of climate on mass
extinctions and biotic recovery.[1]

Reconstructing ancient climates


Paleoclimatologists employ a wide variety of techniques to deduce ancient climates.
Ice
Mountain Glaciers and the polar ice caps/ice sheets are a widely employed source of data in paleoclimatology.
Recent ice coring projects in the ice caps of Greenland and Antarctica have yielded data going back several
hundred thousand years—over 800,000 years in the case of the EPICA project.
• Air trapped within fallen snow becomes encased in tiny bubbles as the snow is compressed into ice in the
glacier under the weight of later years' snow. This trapped air has proven a tremendously valuable source for
direct measurement of the composition of air from the time the ice was formed.
• Layering can be observed due to seasonal pauses in ice accumulation and can be used to establish chronology;
associating specific depths of the core with ranges of time.
• Changes in the layering thickness can be used to determine changes in precipitation or temperature.
• Oxygen-18 quantity changes (δ18O) in ice layers represent changes in average ocean surface temperature.
Water molecules containing the heavier O-18 evaporate at a higher temperature than water molecules
containing the normal Oxygen-16 isotope. The ratio of O-18 to O-16 will be higher as temperature increases
and less as temperature decreases. Various cycles in those isotope ratios have been detected.
• Pollen has been observed in the ice cores and can be used to understand which plants were present as the layer
formed. Pollen is produced in abundance and its distribution is typically well understood. A pollen count for a
specific layer can be produced by observing the total amount of pollen categorized by type (shape) in a
controlled sample of that layer. Changes in plant frequency over time can be plotted through statistical analysis
of pollen counts in the core. Knowing which plants were present leads to an understanding of precipitation and
temperature, and types of fauna present. Palynology includes the study of pollen for these purposes.
• Volcanic ash is contained in some layers, and can be used to establish the time of the layer's formation. Each
volcanic event distributed ash with a unique set of properties (shape and color of particles, chemical signature).
Establishing the ash's source will establish a range of time to associate with layer of ice.
Dendroclimatology
Paleoclimatology 41

Climatic information can be obtained through an understanding of changes in tree growth. Generally, trees
respond to changes in climatic variables by speeding up or slowing down growth, which in turn is generally
reflected a greater or lesser thickness in growth rings. Different species, however, respond to changes in
climatic variables in different ways. A tree-ring record is established by compiling information from many
living trees in a specific area. Older intact wood that has escaped decay can extend the time covered by the
record by matching the ring depth changes to contemporary specimens. Using this method some areas have
tree-ring records dating back a few thousand years. Older wood not connected to a contemporary record can be
dated generally with radiocarbon techniques. A tree-ring record can be used to produce information regarding
precipitation, temperature, hydrology, and fire corresponding to a particular area.
On a longer time scale, geologists must refer to the sedimentary record for data.
Sedimentary content
• Sediments, sometimes lithified to form rock, may contain remnants of preserved vegetation, animals, plankton
or pollen, which may be characteristic of certain climatic zones.
• Biomarker molecules such as the alkenones may yield information about their temperature of formation.
• Chemical signatures, particularly Mg/Ca ratio of calcite in Foraminifera tests, can be used to reconstruct past
temperature.
• Isotopic ratios can provide further information. Specifically, the δ18O record responds to changes in
temperature and ice volume, and the δ13C record reflects a range of factors, which are often difficult to
disentangle.
Sedimentary facies
On a longer time scale, the rock record may show signs of sea level rise and fall; further, features such as
"fossilised" sand dunes can be identified. Scientists can get a grasp of long term climate by studying
sedimentary rock going back billions of years. The division of earth history into separate periods is largely
based on visible changes in sedimentary rock layers that demarcate major changes in conditions. Often these
include major shifts in climate.
Corals (see also sclerochronology)
Coral "rings" are similar to tree rings, except they respond to different things, such as the water temperature
and wave action. From this source, certain equipment can be used to derive the sea surface temperature and
water salinity from the past few centuries. The δ18O of coraline red algae provides a useful proxy of sea
surface temperature at high latitudes, where many traditional techniques are limited.[2]

Limitations
The oldest ice core taken was from the Antarctic and dates to 800,000 years old. An international effort is currently
being made in the same location to core to 1.2 million years ago. The deep marine record, the source of most isotopic
data, only exists on oceanic plates, which are eventually subducted — the oldest remaining material is 200 [3] million
years old. Older sediments are also more prone to corruption by diagenesis. Resolution and confidence in the data
decrease over time.
Paleoclimatology 42

Planet's timeline
Knowledge of precise climatic events decreases as the record goes further back in time. Some notable events are
noted below, with a timescale for context.
• Faint young Sun paradox (start)
• Huronian glaciation (~2400Mya Earth completely covered in ice probably due to Great Oxygenation Event)
• Later Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth (~600Mya, Precursor to the Cambrian Explosion)
• Andean-Saharan glaciation (~450Mya)
• Permian-Triassic extinction event (251.4Mya)
• Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (Paleocene-Eocene, 55Mya)
• Younger Dryas/The Big Freeze (~11Kya)
• Holocene climatic optimum (~7-3Kya)
• Climate changes of 535-536 (535-536 AD)
• Medieval warm period (900-1300)
• Little ice age (1300-1800)
• Year Without a Summer (1816)

Millions of Years

History of the atmosphere

Earliest atmosphere
The outgassings of the Earth was stripped away by solar winds early in
the history of the planet until a steady state was established, the first
atmosphere. Based on today's volcanic evidence, this atmosphere
would have contained 60% hydrogen, 20% oxygen (mostly in the form
of water vapor), 10% carbon dioxide, 5 to 7% hydrogen sulfide, and
smaller amounts of nitrogen, carbon monoxide, free hydrogen,
methane and inert gases.
Oxygen content of the atmosphere over the last
A major rainfall led to the buildup of a vast ocean, enriching the other billion years
agents, first carbon dioxide and later nitrogen and inert gases. A major
part of carbon dioxide exhalations were soon dissolved in water and built up carbonate sediments.
Paleoclimatology 43

Second atmosphere
As early as 3.8 billion years ago, water related sediments have been found.[4] About 3.4 billion years ago, nitrogen
was the major part of the then stable second atmosphere. An influence of life has to be taken into account rather soon
since hints on early life forms are to be found as early as 3.5 billion years ago.[5] The fact that this is not in line with
the — compared to today 30% lower — solar radiance of the early sun has been described as the faint young Sun
paradox.
The geological record, however, shows a continually relatively warm
surface during the complete early temperature record of the earth with
the exception of one cold glacial phase about 2.4 billion years ago. In
the late Archean Era an oxygen containing atmosphere began to
develop from photosynthesizing algae. The early basic carbon isotopy
is very much in line with what is found today [6] As Jan Veizer
assumed that not only did we have life as far back as we had rocks, but
there was as much life then as today and the fundamental features of
the carbon cycle were established as early as 4 billion years ago.[6] 500 million years of changes in carbon dioxide
concentrations

Third atmosphere
The accretion of continents about 3.5 billion years ago[7] added plate tectonics, constantly rearranging the continents
and also shaping long-term climate evolution by allowing the transfer of carbon dioxide to large land-based
carbonate storages. Free oxygen did not exist until about 1.7 billion years ago and this can be seen with the
development of the red beds and the end of the banded iron formations. This signifies a shift from a reducing
atmosphere to an oxidising atmosphere. O2 showed major ups and downs until reaching a steady state of more than
15%.[8] The following time span was the Phanerozoic, during which oxygen-breathing metazoan life forms began to
appear.

Climate during geological ages

Precambrian climate
In the first three quarters of the Earth's history, only one major glaciation is to be found in the geological record.
Since about 950 million years ago, the Earth's climate has varied regularly between large-scale or just polar cap wide
glaciation and extensively tropical climates. The time scale for this variation is roughly 140 million years and may be
related to Earth's motion into and out of galactic spiral arms and compared to the previous time, significantly reduced
solar wind.[9]
The climate of the late Precambrian showed some major glaciation events spreading over much of the earth. At this
time the continents were bunched up in the Rodinia supercontinent. Massive deposits of tillites are found and
anomalous isotopic signatures are found, which gave rise to the Snowball Earth hypothesis. As the Proterozoic Eon
drew to a close, the Earth started to warm up. By the dawn of the Cambrian and the Phanerozoic, life forms were
abundant in the Cambrian explosion with average global temperatures of about 22 °C.
Paleoclimatology 44

Phanerozoic climate
Major drivers for the preindustrial ages have been variations of the sun,
volcanic ashes and exhalations, relative movements of the earth
towards the sun and tectonically induced effects as for major sea
currents, watersheds and ocean oscillations. In the early Phanerozoic,
increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have been linked
to driving or amplifying increased global temperatures.[10] Royer et al.
2004[11] found a climate sensitivity for the rest of the Phanerozoic
which was calculated to be similar to today's modern range of values.

The difference in global mean temperatures between a fully glacial 500 million years of climate change

Earth and an ice free Earth is estimated at approximately 10 °C, though


far larger changes would be observed at high latitudes and smaller ones at low latitudes. One requirement for the
development of large scale ice sheets seems to be the arrangement of continental land masses at or near the poles.
The constant rearrangement of continents by plate tectonics can also shape long-term climate evolution. However,
the presence or absence of land masses at the poles is not sufficient to guarantee glaciations or exclude polar ice
caps. Evidence exists of past warm periods in Earth's climate when polar land masses similar to Antarctica were
home to deciduous forests rather than ice sheets.

The relatively warm local minimum between Jurassic and Cretaceous


goes along with widespread tectonic activity, e.g. the breakup of
supercontinents.
Superimposed on the long-term evolution between hot and cold
climates have been many short-term fluctuations in climate similar to,
and sometimes more severe than, the varying glacial and interglacial Phanerozoic till today's temperature record
states of the present ice age. Some of the most severe fluctuations, such
as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, may be related to rapid climate changes due to sudden collapses of
natural methane clathrate reservoirs in the oceans.

A similar, single event of induced severe climate change after a meteorite impact has been proposed as reason for the
Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction event. Other major thresholds are the Permian-Triassic, and Ordovician-Silurian
extinction events with various reasons suggested.
Paleoclimatology 45

Quaternary sub-era
The Quaternary sub-era includes the current climate. There has been a cycle of ice ages for the past 2.2–2.1 million
years (starting before the Quaternary in the late Neogene Period).
Note in the graphic on the right the strong 120,000-year periodicity of
the cycles, and the striking asymmetry of the curves. This asymmetry
is believed to result from complex interactions of feedback
mechanisms. It has been observed that ice ages deepen by progressive
steps, but the recovery to interglacial conditions occurs in one big step.

Controlling Factors

Short term (104 to 106 years) Ice core data for the past 400,000 years. Note
length of glacial cycles averages ~100,000 years.
Geologically short-term (<120,000 year) temperatures are believed to Blue curve is temperature, green curve is CO2,
be driven by orbital factors (see Milankovitch cycles) amplified by and red curve is windblown glacial dust (loess).
changes in greenhouse gases. The arrangements of land masses on the Today's date is on the left side of the graph.

Earth's surface are believed to influence the effectiveness of these


orbital forcing effects.

Medium term (106 to 108 years)


Continental drift affects the thermohaline circulation, which transfers heat between the equatorial regions and the
poles, as does the extent of polar ice coverage.
The timing of ice ages throughout geologic history is in part controlled by the position of the continental plates on
the surface of the Earth. When landmasses are concentrated near the polar regions, there is an increased chance for
snow and ice to accumulate. Small changes in solar energy can tip the balance between summers in which the winter
snow mass completely melts and summers in which the winter snow persists until the following winter. See the web
site Paleomap Project [12] for images of the polar landmass distributions through time.
Comparisons of plate tectonic continent reconstructions and paleoclimatic studies show that the Milankovitch cycles
have the greatest effect during geologic eras when landmasses have been concentrated in polar regions, as is the case
today. Today, Greenland, Antarctica, and the northern portions of Europe, Asia, and North America are situated such
that a minor change in solar energy will tip the balance between year-round snow/ice preservation and complete
summer melting. The presence of snow and ice is a well-understood positive feedback mechanism for climate. The
Earth today is considered to be prone to ice age glaciations.
Another proposed factor in long term temperature change is the Uplift-Weathering Hypothesis, first put forward by
T. C. Chamberlin in 1899 and later independently proposed in 1988 by Maureen Raymo and colleagues, where
upthrusting mountain ranges expose minerals to weathering resulting in their chemical conversion to carbonates
thereby removing CO2 from the atmosphere and cooling the earth. Others have proposed similar effects due to
changes in average water table levels and consequent changes in sub-surface biological activity and PH levels.
Paleoclimatology 46

Long term (108 to 109 years)


It has been proposed that long term galactic motions of
the sun have a major influence on the Earth's climate.
There are two principal motions, the first and most
significant is the orbit of the sun around the galactic
centre with a period of the order of 240 million
years.[14] Since this period is different from the rotation
period of the galactic spiral arms, the sun, and the earth
with it, will periodically pass through the arms
(estimates of the period are uncertain and vary from
143 million years[13] to 176 million years[15] ). The
Correlation between variations in cosmic ray flux (red) and
second is an oscillatory bobbing motion, similar to a
change in sea temperature (black). Data as presented by Shaviv &
floating buoy, which will periodically take the sun [13]
Veizer.
through the galactic disc. The period of this bobbing
motion is 67 million years, so a pass through the galactic plane will occur every 33 million years.[16] The causal link
between these galactic motions and climate is unclear but one (controversial) postulate is the effect that entering a
denser region of the galaxy will have on increasing the cosmic ray flux (CRF).[13] This theory has been criticised,
both for overstating the correlation with CRF and for failing to propose a believable mechanism that would allow
CRF to drive temperature.[11] The claims by Henrik Svensmark that CRF also strongly affects short term climate
changes is even more controversial and has been challenged by many.[17] [18]

It has also been suggested that there is some correlation between these galactic cycles and geological periods. The
reason for this is postulated to be that the earth experiences many more impact events while passing through high
density regions of the galaxy. Both the climate changes and sudden impacts may cause, or contribute to, extinction
events.[15]

Very long term (109 years or more)


Jan Veizer[6] and Nir Shaviv[13] have proposed the interaction of cosmic rays, solar wind and the various magnetic
fields to explain the long term evolution of earth's climate. According to Shaviv, the early sun had emitted a stronger
solar wind with a protective effect against cosmic rays. In that early age, a moderate greenhouse effect comparable to
today's would have been sufficient to explain an ice free earth and the faint young sun paradox.[19] The solar
minimum around 2.4 billion years ago is consistent with an established cosmic ray flux modulation by a variable star
formation rate in the Milky Way and there is also a hint of an extinction event at this time. Within the last billion
years the solar wind has significantly diminished. It is only within this more recent time that passages of the
heliosphere through the spiral arms of the galaxy have been able to gain a strong and regularly modulating influence
as described above.
Over the very long term the energy output of the sun has gradually increased, on the order of 5% per billion (109)
years, and will continue to do so until it reaches the end of its current phase of stellar evolution.
Paleoclimatology 47

References

Notes
[1] Sahney, S. and Benton, M.J. (2008). "Recovery from the most profound mass extinction of all time" (http:/ / journals. royalsociety. org/
content/ qq5un1810k7605h5/ fulltext. pdf) (PDF). Proceedings of the Royal Society: Biological 275 (1636): 759. doi:10.1098/rspb.2007.1370.
PMC 2596898. PMID 18198148. .
[2] Halfar, J.; Steneck, R.S.; Joachimski, M.; Kronz, A.; Wanamaker, A.D. (2008). "Coralline red algae as high-resolution climate recorders".
Geology 36: 463. doi:10.1130/G24635A.1.
[3] http:/ / toolserver. org/ ~verisimilus/ Timeline/ Timeline. php?Ma=200
[4] Windley, B. (1984). The Evolving Continents. New York: Wiley Press. ISBN 0471903760.
[5] J. Schopf (1983). Earth’s Earliest Biosphere: Its Origin and Evolution. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0691083231.
[6] Veizer, J. (2005). Celestial climate driver: a perspective from four billion years of the carbon cycle. Geoscience Canada
[7] Veizer (1976). Windley, B.F.. ed. The Early History of the Earth. London: John Wiley and Sons. p. 569.
[8] Summary Chart for the Precambrian (http:/ / www. scotese. com/ precamb_chart. htm)
[9] Shaviv N.J. (2002). "Cosmic Ray Diffusion from the Galactic Spiral Arms, Iron Meteorites and a possible Climatic Connection". Physical
Review Letters 89 (5): 051102. Bibcode 2002PhRvL..89e1102S. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.89.051102. PMID 12144433.
[10] Rosemarie E. Came, John M. Eiler, Jan Veizer, Karem Azmy, Uwe Brand & Christopher R. Weidman (September 2007). "Coupling of
surface temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the Palaeozoic era". Nature 449 (7159): 198–201. doi:10.1038/nature06085.
PMID 17851520.
[11] Royer, Dana L. and Robert A. Berner, Isabel P. Montañez, Neil J. Tabor, David J. Beerling (July 2004). "CO2 as a primary driver of
Phanerozoic climate" (http:/ / www. gsajournals. org/ gsaonline/ ?request=get-document& issn=1052-5173& volume=014& issue=03&
page=0004). GSA Today 14 (3): 4–10. doi:10.1130/1052-5173(2004)014<4:CAAPDO>2.0.CO;2. .
[12] http:/ / www. scotese. com/ earth. htm
[13] Shaviv, NJ, Veizer, J (July 2003). "Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate?". GSA Today 7 (7): 4–10., see also online version (http:/ / www.
gsajournals. org/ perlserv/ ?request=get-document& doi=10. 1130/ 1052-5173(2003)013<0004:CDOPC>2. 0. CO;2) or online discussion
(http:/ / www. sciencebits. com/ ice-ages)
[14] Borrero, Hess et al. (2008). Earth Science: Geology, the Environment, and the Universe. Glencoe: McGraw-Hill. p. 348.
ISBN 0-07-875045-8.
[15] Gillman, M, Erenler, H (2008). "The galactic cycle of extinction". International Journal of Astrobiology 7.
doi:10.1017/S1473550408004047.
[16] Huggett, RJ (2003). Environmental Change the Evolving Ecosphere. Routledge. p. 48. ISBN 0-415-14520-1.
[17] Schmidt, Gavin (2007-06-01). "Clouding the issue of climate" (http:/ / physicsworld. com/ cws/ article/ print/ 30103). Physics World. .
[18] K. S. Carslaw, R. G. Harrison, J. Kirkby (November 2002). "Atmospheric Science: Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate". Science 298 (5599):
1732–7. doi:10.1126/science.1076964. PMID 12459578.
[19] Shaviv, N. J. (2003). "Toward a solution to the early faint Sun paradox: A lower cosmic ray flux from a stronger solar wind". J. Geophys.
Res. 108 (A12): 1437. arXiv:astro-ph/0306477. Bibcode 2003JGRA..108.1437S. doi:10.1029/2003JA009997.

Bibliography
• Bradley, Raymond S. (1985). Quaternary paleoclimatology: methods of paleoclimatic reconstruction. Boston:
Allen & Unwin. ISBN 0-04-551067-9.
• Imbrie, John (1986, c1979). Ice ages: solving the mystery. Cambridge MA: Harvard University Press.
ISBN 0674440757.
• Margulis, Lynn; Sagan, Dorion (1986). Origins of sex: three billion years of genetic recombination. The
Bio-origins series. New Haven: Yale University Press. ISBN 0-300-03340-0.
• Gould, Stephen Jay (1989). Wonderful life, the story of the Burgess Shale. New York: W.W. Norton.
ISBN 0-393-02705-8.
• Crowley, Thomas J.; North, Gerald R. (1996). Paleoclimatology. Oxford monographs on geology and geophysics.
18. Oxford: Clarendon Press. ISBN 0-19-510533-8.
• Karl-Heinz Ludwig: Eine kurze Geschichte des Klimas. Von der Entstehung der Erde bis heute, (A short history
of climate, From the evolution of earth till today) Herbst 2006, ISBN 3-406-54746
• William F. Ruddimann (2001). Earth's Climate — Past and Future. Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN 0-7167-3741-8.
• B. Windley (1984). The Evolving Continents. New York: Wiley Press.
Paleoclimatology 48

• Drummond, Carl N. and Wilkinson, Bruce H. (2006). "Interannual Variability in Climate Data". Journal of
Geology 114: 325–339. Bibcode 2006JG....114..325D. doi:10.1086/500992.

External links
• A Brief Introduction to History of Climate (http://muller.lbl.gov/pages/IceAgeBook/history_of_climate.
html), an excellent overview by Prof. Richard A Muller of UC Berkley.
• NOAA Paleoclimatology (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html)
• AGU Paleoclimatology and climate system dynamics (http://www.agu.org/revgeophys/overpe00/overpe00.
html)
• Paleoclimatology in the 21st century (http://www.nhm.ac.uk/hosted_sites/paleonet/paleo21/pclimate.html)
• Environmental Literacy Council (http://www.enviroliteracy.org/article.php/75.html)
• Climate change and Palaeoclimatology (http://www.earth-pages.com/archive/climate.asp) News Archive
• The Uplift-Weathering Hypothesis (http://www.moraymo.us/uplift_overview.php)
• NASA's GISS paleoclimate site (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/paleo/)
• CalPal — Cologne Radiocarbon Calibration & Paleoclimate Research Package (http://www.calpal.de)
• W. F. Ruddiman (2006). "Ice-driven CO2 feedback on ice volume" (http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/cp/cpd/
2/43/cpd-2-43_p.pdf). Clim. Past 2 (1): 43–55. doi:10.5194/cp-2-43-2006.
• Rapid Climate Change (http://www.aip.org/history/climate/rapid.htm)
• Short history of climate (http://stratus.astr.ucl.ac.be/textbook//pdf/Chapter_5.pdf)

Biofuel
Biofuels are a wide range of fuels which are in some way derived from
biomass. The term covers solid biomass, liquid fuels and various
biogases.[1] Biofuels are gaining increased public and scientific
attention, driven by factors such as oil price spikes, the need for
increased energy security, concern over greenhouse gas emissions from
fossil fuels, and government subsidies.

Bioethanol is an alcohol made by fermenting the sugar components of


plant materials and it is made mostly from sugar and starch crops. With
advanced technology being developed, cellulosic biomass, such as Information on pump regarding ethanol fuel
trees and grasses, are also used as feedstocks for ethanol production. blend up to 10%, California

Ethanol can be used as a fuel for vehicles in its pure form, but it is
usually used as a gasoline additive to increase octane and improve
vehicle emissions. Bioethanol is widely used in the USA and in Brazil.

Biodiesel is made from vegetable oils, animal fats or recycled greases.


Biodiesel can be used as a fuel for vehicles in its pure form, but it is
usually used as a diesel additive to reduce levels of particulates, carbon
monoxide, and hydrocarbons from diesel-powered vehicles. Biodiesel
is produced from oils or fats using transesterification and is the most
common biofuel in Europe.
Bus run on biodiesel
Biofuels provided 1.8% of the world's transport fuel in 2008.
Investment into biofuels production capacity exceeded $4 billion worldwide in 2007 and is growing.[2] According to
Biofuel 49

the International Energy Agency, biofuels have the potential to meet more than a quarter of world demand for
transportation fuels by 2050.[3]

Liquid fuels for transportation


Most transportation fuels are liquids, because vehicles usually require high energy density, as occurs in liquids and
solids. High power density can be provided most inexpensively by an internal combustion engine; these engines
require clean burning fuels, to keep the engine clean and minimize air pollution.
The fuels that are easiest to burn cleanly are typically liquids and gases. Thus liquids (and gases that can be stored in
liquid form) meet the requirements of being both portable and clean burning. Also, liquids and gases can be pumped,
which means handling is easily mechanized, and thus less laborious.

First generation biofuels


'First-generation' or conventional biofuels are biofuels made from sugar, starch, and vegetable oil.

Bioalcohols

Biologically produced alcohols, most commonly ethanol, and less


commonly propanol and butanol, are produced by the action of
microorganisms and enzymes through the fermentation of sugars or
starches (easiest), or cellulose (which is more difficult). Biobutanol
(also called biogasoline) is often claimed to provide a direct
replacement for gasoline, because it can be used directly in a gasoline
engine (in a similar way to biodiesel in diesel engines).

Ethanol fuel is the most common biofuel worldwide, particularly in


Neat ethanol on the left (A), gasoline on the right
Brazil. Alcohol fuels are produced by fermentation of sugars derived (G) at a filling station in Brazil
from wheat, corn, sugar beets, sugar cane, molasses and any sugar or
starch that alcoholic beverages can be made from (like potato and fruit waste, etc.). The ethanol production methods
used are enzyme digestion (to release sugars from stored starches), fermentation of the sugars, distillation and
drying. The distillation process requires significant energy input for heat (often unsustainable natural gas fossil fuel,
but cellulosic biomass such as bagasse, the waste left after sugar cane is pressed to extract its juice, can also be used
more sustainably).

Ethanol can be used in petrol engines as a replacement for gasoline; it can be mixed with gasoline to any percentage.
Most existing car petrol engines can run on blends of up to 15% bioethanol with petroleum/gasoline. Ethanol has a
smaller energy density than gasoline, which means it takes more fuel (volume and mass) to produce the same amount
of work. An advantage of ethanol (CH3CH2OH) is that it has a higher octane rating than ethanol-free gasoline
available at roadside gas stations which allows an increase of an engine's compression ratio for increased thermal
efficiency. In high altitude (thin air) locations, some states mandate a mix of gasoline and ethanol as a winter
oxidizer to reduce atmospheric pollution emissions.

Ethanol is also used to fuel bioethanol fireplaces. As they do not require a chimney and are "flueless", bio ethanol
fires[4] are extremely useful for new build homes and apartments without a flue. The downside to these fireplaces, is
that the heat output is slightly less than electric and gas fires.
In the current alcohol-from-corn production model in the United States, considering the total energy consumed by
farm equipment, cultivation, planting, fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, and fungicides made from petroleum,
irrigation systems, harvesting, transport of feedstock to processing plants, fermentation, distillation, drying, transport
to fuel terminals and retail pumps, and lower ethanol fuel energy content, the net energy content value added and
delivered to consumers is very small. And, the net benefit (all things considered) does little to reduce imported oil
Biofuel 50

and fossil fuels required to produce the ethanol.[5]


Although ethanol-from-corn and other food stocks has implications both in terms of world food prices and limited,
yet positive energy yield (in terms of energy delivered to customer/fossil fuels used), the technology has led to the
development of cellulosic ethanol. According to a joint research agenda conducted through the U.S. Department of
Energy,[6] the fossil energy ratios (FER) for cellulosic ethanol, corn ethanol, and gasoline are 10.3, 1.36, and 0.81,
respectively.[7] [8] [9]
Even dry ethanol has roughly one-third lower energy content per unit of volume compared to gasoline, so larger /
heavier fuel tanks are required to travel the same distance, or more fuel stops are required. With large current
unsustainable, non-scalable subsidies, ethanol fuel still costs much more per distance traveled than current high
gasoline prices in the United States.[10]
Methanol is currently produced from natural gas, a non-renewable fossil fuel. It can also be produced from biomass
as biomethanol. The methanol economy is an interesting alternative to get to the hydrogen economy, compared to
today's hydrogen production from natural gas. But this process is not the state-of-the-art clean solar thermal energy
process where hydrogen production is directly produced from water.[11]
Butanol is formed by ABE fermentation (acetone, butanol, ethanol) and experimental modifications of the process
show potentially high net energy gains with butanol as the only liquid product. Butanol will produce more energy
and allegedly can be burned "straight" in existing gasoline engines (without modification to the engine or car),[12]
and is less corrosive and less water soluble than ethanol, and could be distributed via existing infrastructures. DuPont
and BP are working together to help develop Butanol. E. coli have also been successfully engineered to produce
Butanol by hijacking their amino acid metabolism.[13]

Biodiesel

Biodiesel is the most common biofuel in Europe. It is produced from


oils or fats using transesterification and is a liquid similar in
composition to fossil/mineral diesel. Chemically, it consists mostly of
fatty acid methyl (or ethyl) esters (FAMEs). Feedstocks for biodiesel
include animal fats, vegetable oils, soy, rapeseed, jatropha, mahua,
mustard, flax, sunflower, palm oil, hemp, field pennycress, pongamia
pinnata and algae. Pure biodiesel (B100) is the lowest emission diesel
fuel. Although liquefied petroleum gas and hydrogen have cleaner
combustion, they are used to fuel much less efficient petrol engines
and are not as widely available.

Biodiesel can be used in any diesel engine when mixed with mineral
diesel. In some countries manufacturers cover their diesel engines
under warranty for B100 use, although Volkswagen of Germany, for
example, asks drivers to check by telephone with the VW
environmental services department before switching to B100. B100
may become more viscous at lower temperatures, depending on the
feedstock used. In most cases, biodiesel is compatible with diesel
engines from 1994 onwards, which use 'Viton' (by DuPont) synthetic In some countries biodiesel is less expensive than
rubber in their mechanical fuel injection systems. conventional diesel.

Electronically controlled 'common rail' and 'unit injector' type systems


from the late 1990s onwards may only use biodiesel blended with conventional diesel fuel. These engines have
finely metered and atomized multi-stage injection systems that are very sensitive to the viscosity of the fuel. Many
current generation diesel engines are made so that they can run on B100 without altering the engine itself, although
Biofuel 51

this depends on the fuel rail design. Since biodiesel is an effective solvent and cleans residues deposited by mineral
diesel, engine filters may need to be replaced more often, as the biofuel dissolves old deposits in the fuel tank and
pipes. It also effectively cleans the engine combustion chamber of carbon deposits, helping to maintain efficiency. In
many European countries, a 5% biodiesel blend is widely used and is available at thousands of gas stations.[14] [15]
Biodiesel is also an oxygenated fuel, meaning that it contains a reduced amount of carbon and higher hydrogen and
oxygen content than fossil diesel. This improves the combustion of fossil diesel and reduces the particulate emissions
from un-burnt carbon.
Biodiesel is also safe to handle and transport because it is as biodegradable as sugar, 10 times less toxic than table
salt, and has a high flash point of about 300 F (148 C) compared to petroleum diesel fuel, which has a flash point of
125 F (52 C).[16]
In the USA, more than 80% of commercial trucks and city buses run on diesel. The emerging US biodiesel market is
estimated to have grown 200% from 2004 to 2005. "By the end of 2006 biodiesel production was estimated to
increase fourfold [from 2004] to more than 1 billion gallons".[17]

Green diesel
Green diesel, also known as renewable diesel, is a form of diesel fuel which is derived from renewable feedstock
rather than the fossil feedstock used in most diesel fuels. Green diesel feedstock can be sourced from a variety of oils
including canola, algae, jatropha and salicornia in addition to tallow. Green diesel uses traditional fractional
distillation to process the oils, not to be confused with biodiesel which is chemically quite different and processed
using transesterification.
“Green Diesel” as commonly known in Ireland should not be confused with dyed green diesel sold at a lower tax rate
for agriculture purposes, using the dye allows custom officers to determine if a person is using the cheaper diesel in
higher taxed applications such as commercial haulage or cars.[18]
Biofuel 52

Vegetable oil

Straight unmodified edible vegetable oil is generally not used as fuel, but
lower quality oil can and has been used for this purpose. Used vegetable oil is
increasingly being processed into biodiesel, or (more rarely) cleaned of water
and particulates and used as a fuel.
Also here, as with 100% biodiesel (B100), to ensure that the fuel injectors
atomize the vegetable oil in the correct pattern for efficient combustion,
vegetable oil fuel must be heated to reduce its viscosity to that of diesel, either
by electric coils or heat exchangers. This is easier in warm or temperate
climates. Big corporations like MAN B&W Diesel, Wärtsilä, and Deutz AG as
well as a number of smaller companies such as Elsbett offer engines that are
compatible with straight vegetable oil, without the need for after-market
modifications.

Vegetable oil can also be used in many older diesel engines that do not use
common rail or unit injection electronic diesel injection systems. Due to the
design of the combustion chambers in indirect injection engines, these are the
best engines for use with vegetable oil. This system allows the relatively larger
oil molecules more time to burn. Some older engines, especially Mercedes are
driven experimentally by enthusiasts without any conversion, a handful of
drivers have experienced limited success with earlier pre-"Pumpe Duse" VW
TDI engines and other similar engines with direct injection. Several
companies like Elsbett or Wolf [19] have developed professional conversion
kits and successfully installed hundreds of them over the last decades.
Filtered waste vegetable oil
Oils and fats can be hydrogenated to give a diesel substitute. The resulting
product is a straight chain hydrocarbon with a high cetane number, low in aromatics and sulfur and does not contain
oxygen. Hydrogenated oils can be blended with diesel in all proportions Hydrogenated oils have several advantages
over biodiesel, including good performance at low temperatures, no storage stability problems and no susceptibility
to microbial attack.[20]
Biofuel 53

Bioethers
Bio ethers (also referred to as fuel ethers or oxygenated fuels) are cost-effective compounds that act as octane rating
enhancers. They also enhance engine performance, whilst significantly reducing engine wear and toxic exhaust
emissions. Greatly reducing the amount of ground-level ozone, they contribute to the quality of the air we
breathe.[21] [22]

Biogas

Biogas is methane produced by the process of anaerobic digestion of organic


material by anaerobes.[23] It can be produced either from biodegradable waste
materials or by the use of energy crops fed into anaerobic digesters to
supplement gas yields. The solid byproduct, digestate, can be used as a
biofuel or a fertilizer.
• Biogas can be recovered from mechanical biological treatment waste
processing systems.
Note:Landfill gas is a less clean form of biogas which is produced in
landfills through naturally occurring anaerobic digestion. If it escapes
into the atmosphere it is a potential greenhouse gas.
• Farmers can produce biogas from manure from their cows by using an
anaerobic digester (AD).[24]
Pipes carrying biogas

Syngas
Syngas, a mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen, is produced by partial combustion of biomass, that is,
combustion with an amount of oxygen that is not sufficient to convert the biomass completely to carbon dioxide and
water.[20] Before partial combustion the biomass is dried, and sometimes pyrolysed. The resulting gas mixture,
syngas, is more efficient than direct combustion of the original biofuel; more of the energy contained in the fuel is
extracted.
• Syngas may be burned directly in internal combustion engines or turbines. The wood gas generator is a
wood-fueled gasification reactor mounted on an internal combustion engine.
• Syngas can be used to produce methanol, DME and hydrogen, or converted via the Fischer-Tropsch process to
produce a diesel substitute, or a mixture of alcohols that can be blended into gasoline. Gasification normally relies
on temperatures >700°C.
• Lower temperature gasification is desirable when co-producing biochar but results in a Syngas polluted with tar.

Solid biofuels
Examples include wood, sawdust, grass cuttings, domestic refuse, charcoal, agricultural waste, non-food energy
crops (see picture), and dried manure.
When raw biomass is already in a suitable form (such as firewood), it can burn directly in a stove or furnace to
provide heat or raise steam. When raw biomass is in an inconvenient form (such as sawdust, wood chips, grass,
urban waste wood, agricultural residues), the typical process is to densify the biomass. This process includes
grinding the raw biomass to an appropriate particulate size (known as hogfuel), which depending on the densification
type can be from 1 to 3 cm (1 in), which is then concentrated into a fuel product. The current types of processes are
wood pellet, cube, or puck. The pellet process is most common in Europe and is typically a pure wood product. The
other types of densification are larger in size compared to a pellet and are compatible with a broad range of input
Biofuel 54

feedstocks. The resulting densified fuel is easier to transport and feed into thermal generation systems such as
boilers.
A problem with the combustion of raw biomass is that it emits considerable amounts of pollutants such as
particulates and PAHs (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons). Even modern pellet boilers generate much more
pollutants than oil or natural gas boilers. Pellets made from agricultural residues are usually worse than wood pellets,
producing much larger emissions of dioxins and chlorophenols.[25]
Notwithstanding the above noted study, numerous studies have shown that biomass fuels have significantly less
impact on the environment than fossil based fuels. Of note is the U.S. Department of Energy Laboratory, Operated
by Midwest Research Institute Biomass Power and Conventional Fossil Systems with and without CO2
Sequestration – Comparing the Energy Balance, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economics Study. Power
generation emits significant amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs), mainly carbon dioxide (CO2). Sequestering CO2
from the power plant flue gas can significantly reduce the GHGs from the power plant itself, but this is not the total
picture. CO2 capture and sequestration consumes additional energy, thus lowering the plant's fuel-to-electricity
efficiency. To compensate for this, more fossil fuel must be procured and consumed to make up for lost capacity.
Taking this into consideration, the global warming potential (GWP), which is a combination of CO2, methane (CH4),
and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, and energy balance of the system need to be examined using a life cycle
assessment. This takes into account the upstream processes which remain constant after CO2 sequestration as well as
the steps required for additional power generation. firing biomass instead of coal led to a 148% reduction in GWP.
A derivative of solid biofuel is biochar, which is produced by biomass pyrolysis. Bio-char made from agricultural
waste can substitute for wood charcoal. As wood stock becomes scarce this alternative is gaining ground. In eastern
Democratic Republic of Congo, for example, biomass briquettes are being marketed as an alternative to charcoal in
order to protect Virunga National Park from deforestation associated with charcoal production.[26]

Advanced biofuels
Advanced biofuels can refer to any biofuel made by a novel method and/or that gives a better product than current
biofuels.[27] Second, third, and fourth generation biofuels are also called advanced biofuels.

Second generation biofuels


Supporters of biofuels claim that a more viable solution is to increase political and industrial support for, and rapidity
of, second-generation biofuel implementation from non-food crops. These include waste biomass, the stalks of
wheat, corn, wood, and special-energy-or-biomass crops (e.g. Miscanthus). Some second generation (2G) biofuels
use biomass to liquid technology,[28] including cellulosic biofuels.[29] Many second generation biofuels are under
development such as biohydrogen, biomethanol, DMF, BioDME, Fischer-Tropsch diesel, biohydrogen diesel, mixed
alcohols and wood diesel.
Cellulosic ethanol production uses non-food crops or inedible waste products and does not divert food away from the
animal or human food chain. Lignocellulose is the "woody" structural material of plants. This feedstock is abundant
and diverse, and in some cases (like citrus peels or sawdust) it is in itself a significant disposal problem.
Producing ethanol from cellulose is a difficult technical problem to solve. In nature, ruminant livestock (like cattle)
eat grass and then use slow enzymatic digestive processes to break it into glucose (sugar). In cellulosic ethanol
laboratories, various experimental processes are being developed to do the same thing, and then the sugars released
can be fermented to make ethanol fuel. In 2009 scientists reported developing, using "synthetic biology", "15 new
highly stable fungal enzyme catalysts that efficiently break down cellulose into sugars at high temperatures", adding
to the 10 previously known.[30] The use of high temperatures, has been identified as an important factor in improving
the overall economic feasibility of the biofuel industry and the identification of enzymes that are stable and can
operate efficiently at extreme temperatures is an area of active research.[31] In addition, research conducted at TU
Delft by Jack Pronk has shown that elephant yeast, when slightly modified can also create ethanol from non-edible
Biofuel 55

ground sources (e.g. straw).[32] [33]


The recent discovery of the fungus Gliocladium roseum points toward the production of so-called myco-diesel from
cellulose. This organism was recently discovered in the rainforests of northern Patagonia and has the unique
capability of converting cellulose into medium length hydrocarbons typically found in diesel fuel.[34] Scientists also
work on experimental recombinant DNA genetic engineering organisms that could increase biofuel potential.
Scientists working in New Zealand have developed a technology to use industrial waste gases from steel mills as a
feedstock for a microbial fermentation process to produce ethanol.[35] [36]

Third generation biofuels


Algae fuel, also called oilgae or third generation biofuel, is a biofuel from algae. Algae are low-input, high-yield
feedstocks to produce biofuels.[37] Based on laboratory experiments, it is claimed that algae can produce up to 30
times more energy per acre than land crops such as soybeans,[38] but these yields have yet to be produced
commercially. With the higher prices of fossil fuels (petroleum), there is much interest in algaculture (farming
algae). One advantage of many biofuels over most other fuel types is that they are biodegradable, and so relatively
harmless to the environment if spilled.[39] [40] [41] Algae fuel still has its difficulties though, for instance to produce
algae fuels it must be mixed uniformly, which, if done by agitation, could affect biomass growth.[42]
The United States Department of Energy estimates that if algae fuel replaced all the petroleum fuel in the United
States, it would require only 15,000 square miles (38,849 square kilometers), which is roughly the size of
Maryland,[38] or less than one seventh the amount of land devoted to corn in 2000.[43]
Algae, such as Botryococcus braunii and Chlorella vulgaris are relatively easy to grow,[44] but the algal oil is hard to
extract. There are several approaches, some of which work better than others.[45] Macroalgae (seaweed) also have a
great potential for bioethanol and biogas production.[46]
Ethanol from living algae
Most biofuel production comes from harvesting organic matter and then converting it to fuel but an alternative
approach relies on the fact that some algae naturally produce ethanol and this can be collected without killing the
algae. The ethanol evaporates and then can be condensed and collected. The company Algenol is trying to
commercialize this process.
Distillates
However, if biocatalytic cracking and traditional fractional distillation are used to process properly prepared algal
biomass, i.e. biocrude,[47] then distillates can be produced, such as jet fuel, gasoline, diesel and others.

Fourth generation biofuels


A number of companies are pursuing advanced "bio-chemical" and "thermo-chemical" processes that produce "drop
in" fuels like "green gasoline," "green diesel," and "green aviation fuel." While there is no one established definition
of "fourth-generation biofuels," some have referred to it as the biofuels created from processes other than first
generation ethanol and biodiesel, second generation cellulosic ethanol, and third generation algae biofuel. Some
fourth generation technology pathways include: pyrolysis, gasification, upgrading, solar-to-fuel, and genetic
manipulation of organisms to secrete hydrocarbons.[48]
• GreenFuel Technologies Corporation developed a patented bioreactor system that uses nontoxic photosynthetic
algae to take in smokestacks flue gases and produce biofuels such as biodiesel, biogas and a dry fuel comparable
to coal.[49]
• With thermal depolymerization of biological waste one can extract methane and other oils similar to petroleum.
Hydrocarbon plants or petroleum plants are plants which produce terpenoids as secondary metabolites that can be
converted to gasoline-like fuels. Latex producing members of the Euphorbiaceae such as Euphorbia lathyris and E.
tirucalli and members of Apocynaceae have been studied for their potential energy uses.[50] [51]
Biofuel 56

Biofuels by region
There are international organizations such as IEA Bioenergy,[52] established in 1978 by the OECD International
Energy Agency (IEA), with the aim of improving cooperation and information exchange between countries that have
national programs in bioenergy research, development and deployment. The U.N. International Biofuels Forum is
formed by Brazil, China, India, South Africa, the United States and the European Commission.[53] The world leaders
in biofuel development and use are Brazil, United States, France, Sweden and Germany. Russia also has 22% of
worlds forest[54] and is a big biomass (solid biofuels) supplier. In 2010, Russian pulp and paper maker, Vyborgskaya
Cellulose, said they would be producing pellets that can be used in heat and electricity generation from its plant in
Vyborg by the end of the year.[55] The plant will eventually produce about 900,000 tons of pellets per year, making it
the largest in the world once operational.

Issues with biofuel production and use


There are various social, economic, environmental and technical issues with biofuel production and use, which have
been discussed in the popular media and scientific journals. These include: the effect of moderating oil prices, the
"food vs fuel" debate, poverty reduction potential, carbon emissions levels, sustainable biofuel production,
deforestation and soil erosion, loss of biodiversity, impact on water resources, as well as energy balance and
efficiency.

References
[1] Demirbas, A. (2009). "Political, economic and environmental impacts of biofuels: A review". Applied Energy 86: S108–S117.
doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.04.036.
[2] "Towards Sustainable Production and Use of Resources: Assessing Biofuels" (http:/ / www. unep. fr/ scp/ rpanel/ pdf/
Assessing_Biofuels_Full_Report. pdf). United Nations Environment Programme. 2009-10-16. . Retrieved 2009-10-24.
[3] "IEA says biofuels can displace 27% of transportation fuels by 2050 Washington" (http:/ / www. platts. com/ RSSFeedDetailedNews/
RSSFeed/ Oil/ 6017103). Platts. 20 April 2011. .
[4] Bio ethanol fires information bio ethanol fireplace (http:/ / www. prestigiousfires. co. uk). (2009)
[5] Andrew Bounds (2007-09-10). "OECD warns against biofuels subsidies" (http:/ / www. ft. com/ cms/ s/ 0/
e780d216-5fd5-11dc-b0fe-0000779fd2ac. html). Financial Times. . Retrieved 2008-03-07.
[6] see "Breaking the Biological Barriers to Cellulosic Ethanol"
[7] Brinkman, N. et al., "Well-to-Wheels Analysis of Advanced/Vehicle Systems", 2005.
[8] Farrell, A.E. et al. (2006) "Ethanol can Contribute to Energy and Environmental Goals", Science, 311, 506-8.
[9] Hammerschlag, R. 2006. "Ethanol's Energy Return on Investment: A Survey of the Literature 1999-Present", Environ. Sci. Technol., 40,
1744-50.
[10] "With only 2/3 the energy of gasoline, ethanol costs more per mile" (http:/ / zfacts. com/ p/ 436. html). zFacts.com. 2007-04-27. . Retrieved
2008-03-07.
[11] "Hydrogen Solar home" (http:/ / www. hydrogensolar. com/ ). Hydrogensolar.com. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[12] "ButylFuel, LLC Main Page" (http:/ / www. butanol. com/ ). Butanol.com. 2005-08-15. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[13] Evans, Jon (14 January 2008). "Biofuels aim higher" (http:/ / www. biofpr. com/ details/ feature/ 102347/ Biofuels_aim_higher. html).
Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining (BioFPR). . Retrieved 2008-12-03.
[14] "ADM Biodiesel: Hamburg, Leer, Mainz" (http:/ / www. biodiesel. de/ ). Biodiesel.de. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[15] RRI Limited for Biodiesel Filling Stations. "Welcome to Biodiesel Filling Stations" (http:/ / www. biodieselfillingstations. co. uk).
Biodieselfillingstations.co.uk. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[16] "Biofuels Facts" (http:/ / www. hempcar. org/ biofacts. shtml). Hempcar.org. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[17] THE FUTURIST (http:/ / www. wfs. org/ futcontja07. htm), Will Thurmond (http:/ / www. prleap. com/ pr/ 80099/ ). July–August 2007
[18] "Customs seize illegal fuel" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ uk_news/ northern_ireland/ 4083017. stm). BBC News. 2004-12-09. .
Retrieved 2010-07-25.
[19] http:/ / www. wolf-pflanzenoel-technik. de/
[20] Evans, G. "Liquid Transport Biofuels - Technology Status Report" (http:/ / www. nnfcc. co. uk/ metadot/ index.
pl?id=6597;isa=DBRow;op=show;dbview_id=2457), National Non-Food Crops Centre, 2008-04-14. Retrieved on 2009-05-11.
[21] "Council Directive 85/536/EEC of 5 December 1985 on crude-oil savings through the use of substitute fuel components in petrol" (http:/ /
eur-lex. europa. eu/ LexUriServ/ LexUriServ. do?uri=CELEX:31985L0536:EN:HTML). Eur-lex.europa.eu. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[22] "Microsoft Word - IA 55 EN.doc" (http:/ / www. europarl. europa. eu/ registre/ docs_autres_institutions/ commission_europeenne/ sec/
2007/ 0055/ COM_SEC(2007)0055_EN. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
Biofuel 57

[23] Redman, G., The Andersons Centre. "Assessment of on-farm AD in the UK" (http:/ / www. nnfcc. co. uk/ metadot/ index.
pl?id=7198;isa=DBRow;op=show;dbview_id=2457), National Non-Food Crops Centre, 2008-06-09. Retrieved on 2009-05-11.
[24] "BIOGAS: No bull, manure can power your farm." Farmers Guardian (September 25, 2009): 12. General OneFile. Gale.
[25] Cedric Briens, Jan Piskorz and Franco Berruti, "Biomass Valorization for Fuel and Chemicals Production -- A Review," 2008. International
Journal of Chemical Reactor Engineering, 6, R2
[26] "Threat to Great Apes Highlighted at Virunga Meeting" (http:/ / www. america. gov/ st/ env-english/ 2008/ July/
20080711150646mlenuhret0. 9135401. html). America.gov. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[27] National Non-Food Crops Centre. NNFCC Newsletter - Issue 19. Advanced Biofuels (http:/ / www. nnfcc. co. uk/ publications/
nnfcc-newsletter-issue-19. -advanced-biofuels)
[28] Oliver R. Inderwildi, David A. King (2009). "Quo Vadis Biofuels". Energy & Environmental Science 2 (4): 343. doi:10.1039/b822951c.
[29] Chris Somerville. "Development of Cellulosic Biofuels" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070927005653/ http:/ / www. usda. gov/ oce/
forum/ 2007+ Speeches/ PDF+ PPT/ CSomerville. pdf) (PDF). U.S. Dept. of Agriculture. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. usda. gov/
oce/ forum/ 2007+ Speeches/ PDF+ PPT/ CSomerville. pdf) on 2007-09-27. . Retrieved 2008-01-15.
[30] EurekAlert. (2009). 15 new highly stable fungal enzyme catalysts that efficiently break down cellulose into sugars at high temperatures
(http:/ / www. eurekalert. org/ pub_releases/ 2009-03/ ciot-csc032009. php).
[31] Yeoman CJ, Han Y, Dodd D, Schroeder CM, Mackie RI, Cant IK. (2010) "Thermostable enzymes as biocatalysts in the biofuel industry"
(http:/ / www. ncbi. nlm. nih. gov/ pubmed/ 20359453). .. Advances in Applied Microbiology 70: 1 - 55
[32] "Jack Pronk's elephant yeast" (http:/ / www. tnw. tudelft. nl/ live/ pagina. jsp?id=811b8180-6e76-47bb-8ee6-57f89b0d8b17& lang=en).
Tnw.tudelft.nl. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[33] "Straw to ethanol plant in Sas van Gent" (http:/ / www. tnw. tudelft. nl/ live/ pagina. jsp?id=811b8180-6e76-47bb-8ee6-57f89b0d8b17&
lang=en). Tnw.tudelft.nl. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[34] "Fill her up please, and make it myco-diesel" (http:/ / afp. google. com/ article/ ALeqM5gz4TxqoKipVTNNcSTylCrzgb0IAg). AFP. .
Retrieved 2008-11-04.
[35] *Fisher, Lawrence M. April 24th 2007. "Carbon gas is explored as a source of ethanol" New York Times.
[36] *Voegele, E. August 27th 2009. "LanzaTech develops waste gas to ethanol technology", Ethanol Producer Magazine
[37] Matthew Aylott (2010-09-24). "Forget palm oil and soya, microalgae is the next big biofuel source" (http:/ / www. theecologist. org/
blogs_and_comments/ commentators/ other_comments/ 609556/ forget_palm_oil_and_soya_microalgae_is_the_next_big_biofuel_source.
html). The Ecologist. . Retrieved 2011-02-22.
[38] Eviana Hartman (2008-01-06). "A Promising Oil Alternative: Algae Energy" (http:/ / www. washingtonpost. com/ wp-dyn/ content/ article/
2008/ 01/ 03/ AR2008010303907. html). Washington Post. . Retrieved 2008-01-15.
[39] astutech ltd / wordserver 2.0. "Globeco biodegradable bio-diesel" (http:/ / www. globeco. co. uk/ Bio-diesel_news_0007. html).
Globeco.co.uk. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[40] FriendsOfEthanol.com. "Friends of Ethanol.com biodegradable ethanol" (http:/ / www. friendsofethanol. com/ facts. html).
Friendsofethanol.com. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[41] Low Cost Algae Production System Introduced (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20071011212956/ http:/ / energy-arizona. org/ archive/
200708280001_low_cost_algae_production_system_introduced. php)
[42] "New algal extraction techniques using helix bioreactor." Industrial Bioprocessing (April 3, 2009): NA. General OneFile. Gale.
[43] "Nanofarming technology harvest biofuel oils without harming algae" (http:/ / www. physorg. com/ news158333205. html). Physorg.com.
2009-04-07. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[44] (http:/ / algaloildiesel. wetpaint. com/ page/ PROPAGATION+ OF+ ALGAE+ BY+ USE+ OF+ COVERED+ PONDS),
[45] "Prospects For The Biodiesel Industry - Algaloildiesel, Llp" (http:/ / algaloildiesel. wetpaint. com/ page/ PROSPECTS+ FOR+ THE+
BIODIESEL+ INDUSTRY). Algaloildiesel.wetpaint.com. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[46] "Seaweed Biofuels: Production of Biogas and Bioethanol from Brown Macroalgae". Amazon.com. ASIN 3639153073.
[47] University of Oklahoma (2009, January 14) 'Green' Gasoline On The Horizon. ScienceDaily. Retrieved March 9, 2010, from http:/ / www.
sciencedaily. com­/ releases/ 2009/ 01/ 090113155902. htm
[48] http:/ / www. gtmresearch. com/ report/ third-and-fourth-generation-biofuels
[49] "greenfuelonline.com" (http:/ / www. greenfuelonline. com/ ). greenfuelonline.com. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[50] Kalita, D (2008). "Hydrocarbon plant—New source of energy for future". Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 12 (2): 455–471.
doi:10.1016/j.rser.2006.07.008. ISSN 13640321.
[51] K. G. Ramawat (2010). Desert Plants: Biology and Biotechnology (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=UNaNWN4zkqQC& pg=PA37).
Springer. pp. 37–. ISBN 9783642025495. . Retrieved 23 August 2010.
[52] "IEA bioenergy" (http:/ / www. ieabioenergy. com/ IEABioenergy. aspx). IEA bioenergy. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[53] "Press Conference Launching International Biofuels Forum" (http:/ / www. un. org/ News/ briefings/ docs/ 2007/ 070302_Biofuels. doc.
htm). United Nations Department of Public Information. 2007-03-02. . Retrieved 2008-01-15.
[54] Greenpeace - The Russian Forests (http:/ / archive. greenpeace. org/ comms/ cbio/ russia. html)
[55] Moscow Times - World's Largest Pellet Plant to Start by Year-End (http:/ / www. themoscowtimes. com/ business/ article/
worlds-largest-pellet-plant-to-start-by-year-end/ 421905. html)
Biofuel 58

Further reading
• Caye Drapcho, Nhuan Phú Nghiêm, Terry Walker (August 2008). Biofuels Engineering Process Technology
(http://www.mhprofessional.com/product.php?isbn=0071487492). [McGraw-Hill]. ISBN 9780071487498.
• IChemE Energy Conversion Technology Subject Group (May 2009). A Biofuels Compendium (http://www.
icheme.org/biofuelscompendium). [IChemE]. ISBN 9780852955338.
• Fuel Quality Directive Impact Assessment (http://www.europarl.europa.eu/registre/docs_autres_institutions/
commission_europeenne/sec/2007/0055/COM_SEC(2007)0055_EN.pdf)
• Biofuels Journal (http://www.future-science.com/loi/bfs)
• James Smith (November 2010). Biofuels and the Globalisation of Risk (http://www.zedbooks.co.uk/book.
asp?bookdetail=4363). [Zed Books]. ISBN 9781848135727.
• Mitchell, Donald (2010) (Available in PDF). Biofuels in Africa: Opportunities, Prospects, and Challenges (http://
africaknowledgelab.worldbank.org/akl/node/67). The World Bank, Washington, D.C.. ISBN 978-0821385166.

External links
• Investing in Alternative (http://www.investinginalternative.com/Moringa_Investment_Investin.html) - Biofuel
Research
• Alternative Fueling Station Locator (http://www.eere.energy.gov/afdc/fuels/stations_locator.html) (EERE).
• Towards Sustainable Production and Use of Resources: Assessing Biofuels (http://www.unep.fr/scp/rpanel/
pdf/Assessing_Biofuels_Full_Report.pdf) by the United Nations Environment Programme, October 2009.
• Biofuels guidance for businesses, including permits and licences required (http://www.netregs.gov.uk/netregs/
94953.aspx) on NetRegs.gov.uk
• How Much Water Does It Take to Make Electricity? (http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/apr08/6182) -- Natural
gas requires the least water to produce energy, some biofuels the most, according to a new study.
• International Conference on Biofuels Standards (http://ec.europa.eu/energy/res/events/biofuels.htm) -
European Union Biofuels Standardization
• International Energy Agency: Biofuels for Transport - An International Perspective (http://www.iea.org/
textbase/nppdf/free/2004/biofuels2004.pdf)
• Biofuels from Biomass: Technology and Policy Considerations (http://web.mit.edu/professional/
short-programs/courses/biofuels_biomass.html) Thorough overview from MIT
• The Guardian news on biofuels (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/biofuels)
• The U.S. DOE Clean Cities Program (http://www1.eere.energy.gov/cleancities/) - links to all of the Clean
Cities coalitions that exist throughout the U.S. (there are 87 of them)
Earth's energy budget 59

Earth's energy budget


The Earth can be considered as a physical system with
an energy budget that includes all gains of incoming
energy and all losses of outgoing energy. The planet is
approximately in equilibrium, so the sum of the gains is
approximately equal to the sum of the losses.
Note on accompanying images: These graphics depict
only net energy transfer. There is no attempt to depict
the role of greenhouse gases and the exchange that
occurs between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere
or any other exchanges.

The energy budget


A schematic representation of the energy exchanges between the
Incoming energy Earth's surface, the Earth's atmosphere, and outer space. Note that the
total energy entering each level is equal to the energy leaving that
The total solar flux of energy entering the Earth's level as should be expected for a system in balance.
atmosphere is estimated at 174 petawatts. This flux
consists of:
• solar radiation (99.97%, or nearly 173 petawatts; or
about 340 W m−2)
• This is equal to the product of the solar constant,
about 1,366 watts per square metre, and the area
of the Earth's disc as seen from the Sun, about
1.28 × 1014 square metres, averaged over the
Earth's surface, which is four times larger. The
solar flux averaged over just the sunlit half of the
Earth's surface is about 680 W m−2
• This is the incident energy. The energy actually
absorbed by the earth is lower by a factor of the
co-albedo; this is discussed in the next section. This image is from a NASA site explaining the effects of clouds on
the Earth's Energy Budget
• Note that the solar constant varies (by
approximately 0.1% over a solar cycle); and is
not known absolutely to within better than about one watt per square metre. Hence the geothermal, tidal, and
waste heat contributions are less than the uncertainty in the solar power.
• geothermal energy (0.025%; or about 44[2] to 47[3] terawatts; or about 0.08 W m−2)
• This is produced by stored heat and heat produced by radioactive decay leaking out of the Earth's interior.
• tidal energy (0.002%, or about 3 terawatts; or about 0.0059 W m−2)
Earth's energy budget 60

• This is produced by the interaction of the Earth's


mass with the gravitational fields of other bodies
such as the Moon and Sun.
• waste heat from fossil fuel consumption (about
0.007%, or about 13 terawatts; or about 0.025 W
m−2)[4] The total energy used by commercial energy
sources from 1880 to 2000 (including fossil fuels
and nuclear) is calculated to be 17.3x1021Joules.[5]
There are other minor sources of energy that are usually
ignored in these calculations: accretion of
interplanetary dust and solar wind, light from distant
stars, the thermal radiation of space. Although these are Solar energy as it is dispersed on the planet and radiated back to
[1]
now known to be negligibly small, this was not always space. Values are in PW =1015 watt.

obvious: Joseph Fourier initially thought radiation from


deep space was significant when he discussed the Earth's energy budget in a paper often cited as the first on the
greenhouse effect.[6]

Outgoing energy
The average albedo (reflectivity) of the Earth is about 0.3, which means that 30% of the incident solar energy is
reflected into space, while 70% is absorbed by the Earth and reradiated as infrared. The planet's albedo varies from
month to month and place to place, but 0.3 is the average figure. The contributions from geothermal and tidal power
sources are so small that they are omitted from the following calculations.
30% of the incident energy is reflected, consisting of:
• 6% reflected from the atmosphere
• 20% reflected from clouds
• 4% reflected from the ground (including land, water and ice)
The remaining 70% of the incident energy is
absorbed:
• 51% is absorbed by land and water, and
then emerges in the following ways:
• 23% is transferred back into the
atmosphere as latent heat by the
evaporation of water, called latent
heat flux
• 7% is transferred back into the
atmosphere by heated rising air, called
Sensible heat flux
• 6% is radiated directly into space
• 15% is transferred into the atmosphere
by radiation, then reradiated into Earth's longwave thermal radiation intensity, from clouds, atmosphere and ground
space
• 19% is absorbed by the atmosphere and clouds, including:
• 16% reradiated into space
• 3% transferred to clouds, from where it is radiated back into space
When the Earth is at thermal equilibrium, the same 70% that is absorbed is reradiated:
Earth's energy budget 61

• 64% by the clouds and atmosphere


• 6% by the ground
.

References
[1] Data to produce this graphic was taken from a NASA publication.
[2] Pollack, H.N.; S. J. Hurter, and J. R. Johnson (1993). "Heat Flow from the Earth's Interior: Analysis of the Global Data Set" (http:/ / www.
agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 1993/ 93RG01249. shtml). Rev. Geophys. 30 (3): pp. 267–280.
[3] J. H. Davies and D. R. Davies, "Earth’s Surface heat flux," Solid Earth, 1, 5–24 (2010), available in pdf form (http:/ / www. solid-earth. net/
1/ 5/ 2010/ se-1-5-2010. pdf) here (accessed 8 October 2010)
[4] (http:/ / mustelid. blogspot. com/ 2005/ 04/ global-warming-is-not-from-waste-heat. html)
[5] Nordell, Bo; Bruno Gervet. Global energy accumulation and net heat emission (http:/ / www. ltu. se/ polopoly_fs/ 1. 5035!nordell-gervet
ijgw. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-12-23.
[6] Connolley, William M. (18 May 2003). "William M. Connolley's page about Fourier 1827: MEMOIRE sur les temperatures du globe terrestre
et des espaces planetaires" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ fourier_1827/ ). William M. Connolley. . Retrieved 5 July 2010.

• "Earth's Energy Budget", Oklahoma Climatological Survey (http://okfirst.ocs.ou.edu/train/meteorology/


EnergyBudget2.html)
• "Earth's Energy Budget" graphic, NASA (http://asd-www.larc.nasa.gov/erbe/components2.gif)
• "Understanding the Heat Budget", cricketmx.com (http://www.cricketmx.com/articles/read/
understanding-the-heat-budget/)

Earth's radiation balance


Earth's radiation balance is the equation of the incoming and outgoing thermal radiation.
The incoming solar radiation is short wave, therefore
the equation below is called the short wave radiation
balance Qs:
Qs = G - R = D + H - R or depending on
the albedo (back-reflection to space): = G
(1 - a)
• G = global radiation
• D = direct radiation
• H = diffuse radiation
• R = reflected portion of global radiation (ca. 4%)
• a = albedo
An instrument for measuring the net radiation balance and albedo.
The Earth's surface and atmosphere emits heat radiation Model shown CNR 1. Courtesy of Kipp & Zonen
in the infrared spectrum, called long wave radiation.
There is little overlap between the long wave radiation spectrum and the solar radiation spectrum. The equation
below expresses the long wave radiation balance Ql:
Ql = AE = AO - AG
• AE = effective radiation
• AO = radiation of the Earth's surface
• AG = trapped radiation (radiation forcing, also known as the so called greenhouse effect)
The two equations on incoming and outgoing radiation can be combined to show the net total amount of radiation
energy, total radiation balance Qt:
Qt = Qs - Ql = G - R - AE
Earth's radiation balance 62

The difficulty is to precisely quantify the various internal and external factors influencing the radiation balance.
Internal factors include all mechanisms affecting atmospheric composition (volcanism, biological activity, land use
change, human activities etc.). The main external factor is solar radiation. The sun's average luminosity changes little
over time.
External and internal factors are also closely interconnected. Increased solar radiation for example results in higher
average temperatures and higher water vapour content of the atmosphere. Water vapour, a heat trapping gas
absorbing infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface, can lead to either higher temperatures through radiation
forces or lower temperatures as a result of increased cloud formation and hence increased albedo.

Fossil fuel
Fossil fuels are fuels formed by natural processes such as anaerobic
decomposition of buried dead organisms. The age of the organisms and
their resulting fossil fuels is typically millions of years, and sometimes
exceeds 650 million years.[1] The fossil fuels, which contain high
percentages of carbon, include coal, petroleum, and natural gas. Fossil
fuels range from volatile materials with low carbon:hydrogen ratios
like methane, to liquid petroleum to nonvolatile materials composed of
almost pure carbon, like anthracite coal. Methane can be found in
hydrocarbon fields, alone, associated with oil, or in the form of
methane clathrates. It is generally accepted that they formed from the
fossilized remains of dead plants and animals[2] by exposure to heat
and pressure in the Earth's crust over millions of years.[3] This biogenic
Coal, one of the fossil fuels.
theory was first introduced by Georg Agricola in 1556 and later by
Mikhail Lomonosov in the 18th century.

It was estimated by the Energy Information Administration that in 2007 primary sources of energy consisted of
petroleum 36.0%, coal 27.4%, natural gas 23.0%, amounting to an 86.4% share for fossil fuels in primary energy
consumption in the world.[4] Non-fossil sources in 2006 included hydroelectric 6.3%, nuclear 8.5%, and others
(geothermal, solar, tide, wind, wood, waste) amounting to 0.9 percent.[5] World energy consumption was growing
about 2.3% per year.
Fossil fuels are non-renewable resources because they take millions of years to form, and reserves are being depleted
much faster than new ones are being made. The production and use of fossil fuels raise environmental concerns. A
global movement toward the generation of renewable energy is therefore under way to help meet increased energy
needs.
The burning of fossil fuels produces around 21.3 billion tonnes (21.3 gigatonnes) of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year,
but it is estimated that natural processes can only absorb about half of that amount, so there is a net increase of 10.65
billion tonnes of atmospheric carbon dioxide per year (one tonne of atmospheric carbon is equivalent to 44/12 or 3.7
tonnes of carbon dioxide).[6] Carbon dioxide is one of the greenhouse gases that enhances radiative forcing and
contributes to global warming, causing the average surface temperature of the Earth to rise in response, which most
climate scientists agree will cause major adverse effects.
Fossil fuel 63

Origin
Petroleum and natural gas are formed by the anaerobic decomposition of remains of organisms including
phytoplankton and zooplankton that settled to the sea (or lake) bottom in large quantities under anoxic conditions,
millions of years ago. Over geological time, this organic matter, mixed with mud, got buried under heavy layers of
sediment. The resulting high levels of heat and pressure caused the organic matter to chemically alter, first into a
waxy material known as kerogen which is found in oil shales, and then with more heat into liquid and gaseous
hydrocarbons in a process known as catagenesis.
There is a wide range of renewable, or hydrocarbon, compounds in any given fuel mixture. The specific mixture of
hydrocarbons gives a fuel its characteristic properties, such as boiling point, melting point, density, viscosity, etc.
Some fuels like natural gas, for instance, contain only very low boiling, gaseous components. Others such as
gasoline or diesel contain much higher boiling components.
Terrestrial plants, on the other hand, tend to form coal and methane. Many of the coal fields date to the
Carboniferous period of Earth's history. Terrestrial plants also form type III kerogen, a source of natural gas.

Importance
Fossil fuels are of great importance because they can be burned
(oxidized to carbon dioxide and water), producing significant amounts
of energy per unit weight. The use of coal as a fuel predates recorded
history. Coal was used to run furnaces for the melting of metal ore.
Semi-solid hydrocarbons from seeps were also burned in ancient
times,[7] but these materials were mostly used for waterproofing and
embalming.[8]

Commercial exploitation of petroleum, largely as a replacement for


oils from animal sources (notably whale oil), for use in oil lamps began
in the 19th century.[9]
Natural gas, once flared-off as an unneeded byproduct of petroleum
production, is now considered a very valuable resource.[10]
Heavy crude oil, which is much more viscous than conventional crude
oil, and tar sands, where bitumen is found mixed with sand and clay,
are becoming more important as sources of fossil fuel.[11] Oil shale and An oil well in the Gulf of Mexico
similar materials are sedimentary rocks containing kerogen, a complex
mixture of high-molecular weight organic compounds, which yield synthetic crude oil when heated (pyrolyzed).
These materials have yet to be exploited commercially.[12] These fuels can be employed in internal combustion
engines, fossil fuel power stations and other uses.

Prior to the latter half of the 18th century, windmills and watermills provided the energy needed for industry such as
milling flour, sawing wood or pumping water, and burning wood or peat provided domestic heat. The widescale use
of fossil fuels, coal at first and petroleum later, to fire steam engines enabled the Industrial Revolution. At the same
time, gas lights using natural gas or coal gas were coming into wide use. The invention of the internal combustion
engine and its use in
Fossil fuel 64

automobiles and trucks greatly increased the demand for gasoline and
diesel oil, both made from fossil fuels. Other forms of transportation,
railways and aircraft, also required fossil fuels. The other major use for
fossil fuels is in generating electricity and as feedstock for the
petrochemical industry. Tar, a leftover of petroleum extraction, is used
in construction of roads.

Levels and flows


Levels of primary energy sources are the reserves in the ground. Flows
are production. The most important part of primary energy sources are
the carbon based fossil energy sources. Coal, oil, and natural gas
provided 79.6% of primary energy production during 2002 (in million
tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe)) (34.9+23.5+21.2).

A petrochemical refinery in Grangemouth,


Scotland, UK

Levels (proved reserves) during 2005-2007


• Coal: 997,748 million short tonnes (905 billion metric tonnes),[13] 4416 billion barrels (702.1 km3) of oil
equivalent
• Oil: 1119 billion barrels (177.9 km3) to 1317 billion barrels (209.4 km3)[14]
• Natural gas: 6,183-6,381 trillion cubic feet (175-181 trillion cubic metres),[14] 1161 billion barrels
(184.6×109 m3) of oil equivalent
Flows (daily production) during 2006
• Coal: 18,476,127 short tonnes (16,761,260 metric tonnes),[15] 52000000 barrels ( m3) of oil equivalent per day
• Oil: 84000000 barrels per day ( m3/d)[16]
• Natural gas: 104,435 billion cubic feet (2,960 billion cubic metres),[17] 19000000 barrels ( m3) of oil equivalent
per day
Years of production left in the ground with the current proved reserves and flows above
• Coal: 148 years
• Oil: 43 years
• Natural gas: 61 years
Years of production left in the ground with the most optimistic proved reserve estimates (Oil & Gas Journal, World
Oil)
• Coal: 417 years
• Oil: 43 years
• Natural gas: 167 years
The calculation above assumes that the product could be produced at a constant level for that number of years and
that all of the proved reserves could be recovered. In reality, consumption of all three resources has been increasing.
While this suggests that the resource will be used up more quickly, in reality, the production curve is much more
akin to a bell curve. At some point in time, the production of each resource within an area, country, or globally will
reach a maximum value, after which, the production will decline until it reaches a point where is no longer
economically feasible or physically possible to produce. See Hubbert peak theory for detail on this decline curve
with regard to petroleum. Note also that proved reserve estimates do not include strategic reserves, which (globally)
Fossil fuel 65

amount to 4.1 billion more barrels.


The above discussion emphasizes worldwide energy balance. It is also valuable to understand the ratio of reserves to
annual consumption (R/C) by region or country. For example, energy policy of the United Kingdom recognizes that
Europe's R/C value is 3.0, very low by world standards, and exposes that region to energy vulnerability. Alternatives
to fossil fuels are a subject of intense debate worldwide.

Limits and alternatives


The principle of supply and demand suggests that as hydrocarbon supplies diminish, prices will rise. Therefore
higher prices will lead to increased alternative, renewable energy supplies as previously uneconomic sources become
sufficiently economical to exploit. Artificial gasolines and other renewable energy sources currently require more
expensive production and processing technologies than conventional petroleum reserves, but may become
economically viable in the near future. See Energy development. Different alternative sources of energy include
nuclear, hydroelectric, solar, wind, and geothermal.

Environmental effects
In the United States, more than 90% of
greenhouse gas emissions come from
the combustion of fossil fuels.[18]
Combustion of fossil fuels also
produces other air pollutants, such as
nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, volatile
organic compounds and heavy metals.

According to Environment Canada:


"The electricity sector is
unique among industrial
sectors in its very large
contribution to emissions
associated with nearly all
air issues. Electricity
generation produces a
Global fossil carbon emission by fuel type, 1800-2007. Note: Carbon only represents 27%
large share of Canadian of the mass of CO2
nitrogen oxides and
sulphur dioxide emissions, which contribute to smog and acid rain and the formation of fine particulate
matter. It is the largest uncontrolled industrial source of mercury emissions in Canada. Fossil fuel-fired
electric power plants also emit carbon dioxide, which may contribute to climate change. In addition, the
sector has significant impacts on water and habitat and species. In particular, hydro dams and
transmission lines have significant effects on water and biodiversity."[19]
Fossil fuel 66

According to U.S. Scientist Jerry


Mahlman and USA Today: Mahlman,
who crafted the IPCC language used to
define levels of scientific certainty,
says the new report will lay the blame
at the feet of fossil fuels with "virtual
certainty," meaning 99% sure. That's a
significant jump from "likely," or 66%
sure, in the group's last report in 2001,
Mahlman says. His role in this year's
effort involved spending two months
reviewing the more than 1,600 pages
of research that went into the new
assessment.[20]

Combustion of fossil fuels generates Carbon dioxide variations over the last 400,000 years, showing a rise since the industrial
sulfuric, carbonic, and nitric acids, revolution.

which fall to Earth as acid rain,


impacting both natural areas and the built environment. Monuments and sculptures made from marble and limestone
are particularly vulnerable, as the acids dissolve calcium carbonate.
Fossil fuels also contain radioactive materials, mainly uranium and thorium, which are released into the atmosphere.
In 2000, about 12,000 tonnes of thorium and 5,000 tonnes of uranium were released worldwide from burning
coal.[21] It is estimated that during 1982, US coal burning released 155 times as much radioactivity into the
atmosphere as the Three Mile Island incident.[22] However, this radioactivity from coal burning is minuscule at each
source and has not shown to have any adverse effect on human physiology.
Burning coal also generates large amounts of bottom ash and fly ash. These materials are used in a wide variety of
applications, utilizing, for example, about 40% of the US production.[23]
Harvesting, processing, and distributing fossil fuels can also create environmental concerns. Coal mining methods,
particularly mountaintop removal and strip mining, have negative environmental impacts, and offshore oil drilling
poses a hazard to aquatic organisms. Oil refineries also have negative environmental impacts, including air and water
pollution. Transportation of coal requires the use of diesel-powered locomotives, while crude oil is typically
transported by tanker ships, each of which requires the combustion of additional fossil fuels.
Environmental regulation uses a variety of approaches to limit these emissions, such as command-and-control
(which mandates the amount of pollution or the technology used), economic incentives, or voluntary programs.
An example of such regulation in the USA is the "EPA is implementing policies to reduce airborne mercury
emissions. Under regulations issued in 2005, coal-fired power plants will need to reduce their emissions by 70
percent by 2018.".[24]
In economic terms, pollution from fossil fuels is regarded as a negative externality. Taxation is considered one way
to make societal costs explicit, in order to 'internalize' the cost of pollution. This aims to make fossil fuels more
expensive, thereby reducing their use and the amount of pollution associated with them, along with raising the funds
necessary to counteract these factors.
Former CIA Director James Woolsey recently outlined the national security arguments in favor of moving away
from fossil fuels.[25]
Fossil fuel 67

References
[1] Paul Mann, Lisa Gahagan, and Mark B. Gordon, "Tectonic setting of the world's giant oil and gas fields," in Michel T. Halbouty (ed.) Giant
Oil and Gas Fields of the Decade, 1990-1999 (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=mrghwzjeU-AC& pg=PA50& lpg=PA50&
dq="precambrian+ oil"+ halbouty& source=bl& ots=xGS8yx9cUn& sig=kAQvoCdognlM-k0bDI2ZLCj5ri4& hl=en&
ei=bo8_SoSNJZPCsQPYgvS6Dw& sa=X& oi=book_result& ct=result& resnum=1), Tulsa, Okla.: American Association of Petroleum
Geologists, p.50, accessed 22 June 2009.
[2] Dr. Irene Novaczek. "Canada's Fossil Fuel Dependency" (http:/ / www. elements. nb. ca/ theme/ fuels/ irene/ novaczek. htm). Elements. .
Retrieved 2007-01-18.
[3] "Fossil fuel" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070312054557/ http:/ / oaspub. epa. gov/ trs/ trs_proc_qry. navigate_term?p_term_id=7068&
p_term_cd=TERM). EPA. Archived from the original (http:/ / oaspub. epa. gov/ trs/ trs_proc_qry. navigate_term?p_term_id=7068&
p_term_cd=TERM) on March 12, 2007. . Retrieved 2007-01-18.
[4] "U.S. EIA International Energy Statistics" (http:/ / tonto. eia. doe. gov/ cfapps/ ipdbproject/ IEDIndex3. cfm). . Retrieved 2010-01-12.
[5] "International Energy Annual 2006" (http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ iea/ overview. html). . Retrieved 2009-02-08.
[6] "US Department of Energy on greenhouse gases" (http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ oiaf/ 1605/ ggccebro/ chapter1. html). . Retrieved 2007-09-09.
[7] "Encyclopedia Britannica, use of oil seeps in accient times" (http:/ / www. britannica. com/ ebc/ article-50695). . Retrieved 2007-09-09.
[8] Bilkadi, Zayn (1994). "BULLS FROM THE SEA : Ancient Oil Industries". Aramco World. Archived (http:/ / web. archive. org/
20071113215013/ http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20071113215013/ http:/ / www. gr8dubai. com/ oil2. htm) November 13, 2007 at the
Wayback Machine.
[9] Ball, Max W.; Douglas Ball, Daniel S. Turner (1965). This Fascinating Oil Business. Indianapolis: Bobbs-Merrill. ISBN 0-672-50829-X.
[10] Kaldany,, Rashad, Director Oil, Gas, Mining and Chemicals Dept, World Bank (December 13, 2006). "Global Gas Flaring Reduction: A
Time for Action!" (http:/ / www. worldbank. org/ html/ fpd/ ggfrforum06/ kadany. pdf) (PDF). Global Forum on Flaring & Gas Utilization.
Paris. . Retrieved 2007-09-09.
[11] "Oil Sands Global Market Potential 2007" (http:/ / www. prlog. org/ 10026386-oil-sands-global-market-potential-2007. html). . Retrieved
2007-09-09.
[12] "US Department of Energy plans for oil shale development" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070813012953/ http:/ / www. fossil. energy.
gov/ programs/ reserves/ npr/ NPR_Oil_Shale_Program. html). Archived from the original (http:/ / www. fossil. energy. gov/ programs/
reserves/ npr/ NPR_Oil_Shale_Program. html) on August 13, 2007. . Retrieved 2007-09-09.
[13] World Estimated Recoverable Coal (http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ pub/ international/ iea2005/ table82. xls)
[14] World Proved Reserves of Oil and Natural Gas, Most Recent Estimates (http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ emeu/ international/ reserves. xls)
[15] http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ pub/ international/ iealf/ table14. xls
[16] http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ emeu/ international/ RecentPetroleumConsumptionBarrelsperDay. xls
[17] http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ pub/ international/ iealf/ table13. xls
[18] US EPA.2000. Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-1998, Rep. EPA 236-R-00-01. US EPA, Washington, DC,
http:/ / www. epa. gov/ globalwarming
[19] "Electricity Generation" (http:/ / www. ec. gc. ca/ cleanair-airpur/ Electricity-WSDC4D330A-1_En. htm). . Retrieved 2007-03-23.
[20] O'Driscoll, Patrick; Vergano, Dan (2007-03-01). "Fossil fuels are to blame, world scientists conclude" (http:/ / www. usatoday. com/ tech/
science/ 2007-01-30-ipcc-report_x. htm). USA Today. . Retrieved 2010-05-02.
[21] Coal Combustion: Nuclear Resource or Danger (http:/ / www. ornl. gov/ info/ ornlreview/ rev26-34/ text/ colmain. html) - Alex Gabbard
[22] Nuclear proliferation through coal burning (http:/ / www. physics. ohio-state. edu/ ~aubrecht/ coalvsnucMarcon. pdf#page=8) - Gordon J.
Aubrecht, II, Ohio State University
[23] American Coal Ash Association. "CCP Production and Use Survey" (http:/ / www. acaa-usa. org/ PDF/
2005_CCP_Production_and_Use_Figures_Released_by_ACAA. pdf) (PDF). .
[24] "Frequently Asked Questions, Information on Proper Disposal of Compact Fluorescent Light Bulbs (CFLs)" (http:/ / www. energystar. gov/
ia/ partners/ promotions/ change_light/ downloads/ Fact_Sheet_Mercury. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2007-03-19.
[25] Video of Woolsey speech (http:/ / www. law. uh. edu/ eelpj/ symposium. html)
Fossil fuel 68

External links
• "The Coming Energy Crisis?" (http://www.wtrg.com/EnergyCrisis/index.html) - essay by James L. Williams
of WTRG Economics and A. F. Alhajji of Ohio Northern University
• "Powering the Future" (http://www7.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0508/feature1/fulltext.html) - Michael
Parfit (National Geographic)
• "Federal Fossil Fuel Subsidies and Greenhouse Gas Emissions" (http://www.mindfully.org/Energy/
Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies.htm)
• Fossil Fuel Subsidies in Europe (http://archive.greenpeace.org/comms/97/climate/eusub.html)
• Oil companies hit by 'state' cyber attacks (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/01/25/oil_companies_attacked)
Debate
• The Origin of Methane (and Oil) in the Crust of the Earth (http://web.archive.org/web/20021015163818/
www.people.cornell.edu/pages/tg21/usgs.html)-Thomas Gold (Internet Archives)

Global dimming
Global dimming is the gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface that was
observed for several decades after the start of systematic measurements in the 1950s. The effect varies by location,
but worldwide it has been estimated to be of the order of a 4% reduction over the three decades from 1960–1990.
However, after discounting an anomaly caused by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, a very slight reversal in
the overall trend has been observed.[1]
It is thought to have been caused by an increase in particulates such as sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere due to
human action.
Global dimming has interfered with the hydrological cycle by reducing evaporation and may have reduced rainfall in
some areas. Global dimming also creates a cooling effect that may have partially masked the effect of greenhouse
gases on global warming.
Deliberate manipulation of this dimming effect is now being considered as a geoengineering technique to reduce the
impact of global warming.

Causes and effects


It is thought that global dimming is probably due to the increased presence of aerosol particles in the atmosphere
caused by human action.[2] Aerosols and other particulates absorb solar energy and reflect sunlight back into space.
The pollutants can also become nuclei for cloud droplets. Water droplets in clouds coalesce around the particles.[3]
Increased pollution causes more particulates and thereby creates clouds consisting of a greater number of smaller
droplets (that is, the same amount of water is spread over more droplets). The smaller droplets make clouds more
reflective, so that more incoming sunlight is reflected back into space and less reaches the Earth's surface. In models,
these smaller droplets also decrease rainfall.[4]
Clouds intercept both heat from the sun and heat radiated from the Earth. Their effects are complex and vary in time,
location, and altitude. Usually during the daytime the interception of sunlight predominates, giving a cooling effect;
however, at night the re-radiation of heat to the Earth slows the Earth's heat loss.
Global dimming 69

Research
In the late-1960s, Mikhail Ivanovich Budyko worked with simple
two-dimensional energy-balance climate models to investigate the
reflectivity of ice.[5] He found that the ice-albedo feedback created a
positive feedback loop in the Earth's climate system. The more snow
and ice, the more solar radiation is reflected back into space and hence
the colder Earth grows and the more it snows. Other studies found that
pollution or a volcano eruption could provoke the onset of an ice
age.[6] [7]

In the mid-1980s, Atsumu Ohmura, a geography researcher at the


Eastern China. Dozens of fires burning on the
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, found that solar radiation
surface (red dots) and a thick pall of smoke and
striking the Earth's surface had declined by more than 10% over the
haze (greyish pixels) filling the skies overhead.
Photo taken by MODIS aboard NASA's Aqua three previous decades. His findings appeared to contradict global
satellite.
warming—the global temperature had been generally rising since the
70s. Less light reaching the earth seemed to mean that it should cool.
Ohmura published his findings "Secular variation of global radiation in Europe" in 1989.[8] This was soon followed
by others: Viivi Russak in 1990 "Trends of solar radiation, cloudiness and atmospheric transparency during recent
decades in Estonia",[9] and Beate Liepert in 1994 "Solar radiation in Germany — Observed trends and an assessment
of their causes".[10] Dimming has also been observed in sites all over the former Soviet Union.[11] Gerry Stanhill
who studied these declines worldwide in many papers (see references) coined the term "global dimming".[12]

Independent research in Israel and the Netherlands in the late 1980s showed an apparent reduction in the amount of
sunlight,[13] despite widespread evidence that the climate was actually becoming hotter. The rate of dimming varies
around the world but is on average estimated at around 2–3% per decade. The trend reversed in the early 1990s. [1] It
is difficult to make a precise measurement, due to the difficulty in accurately calibrating the instruments used, and
the problem of spatial coverage. Nonetheless, the effect is almost certainly present.
The effect (2–3%, as above) is due to changes within the Earth's atmosphere; the value of the solar radiation at the
top of the atmosphere has not changed by more than a fraction of this amount.[14]
The effect varies greatly over the planet, but
estimates of the terrestrial surface average
value are:
• 5.3% (9 W/m²); over 1958–85 (Stanhill
and Moreshet, 1992)[12]
• 2%/decade over 1964–93 (Gilgen et al., Smog at the Golden Gate Bridge. Smog is a likely contributor to global dimming.
1998)[15]
• 2.7%/decade (total 20 W/m²); up to 2000 (Stanhill and Cohen, 2001)[16]
• 4% over 1961–90 (Liepert 2002)[17]
Note that these numbers are for the terrestrial surface and not really a global average. Whether dimming (or
brightening) occurred over the ocean has been a bit of an unknown though a specific measurement (see below,
Causes) measured effects some 400 miles (643.7 km) from India over the Indian Ocean towards the Maldives
Islands. Regional effects probably dominate but are not strictly confined to the land area, and the effects will be
driven by regional air circulation. A 2009 review by Wild et al.[18] found that widespread variation in regional and
time effects. There was solar brightening beyond 2000 at numerous stations in Europe, the United States, and Korea.
The brightening seen at sites in Antarctica during the 1990s, influenced by recovering from the Mount Pinatubo
Global dimming 70

volcanic eruption in 1991, fades after 2000. The brightening tendency also seems to level off at sites in Japan. In
China there is some indication for a renewed dimming, after the stabilization in the 1990s. A continuation of the
long-lasting dimming is also noted at the sites in India. Overall, the available data suggest continuation of the
brightening beyond the year 2000 at numerous locations, yet less pronounced and coherent than during the 1990s,
with more regions with no clear changes or declines. Therefore, globally, greenhouse warming after 2000 may be
less modulated by surface solar variations than in prior decades. The largest reductions are found in the northern
hemisphere mid-latitudes.[19] Visible light and infrared radiation seem to be most affected rather than the ultraviolet
part of the spectrum.[20]

Pan evaporation data


Over the last 50 or so years, pan evaporation has been carefully monitored. For decades, nobody took much notice of
the pan evaporation measurements. But in the 1990s in Europe, Israel, and North America, scientists spotted
something that at the time was considered very strange: the rate of evaporation was falling although they had
expected it to increase due to global warming.[21] The same trend has been observed in China over a similar period.
A decrease in solar irradiance is cited as the driving force. However, unlike in other areas of the world, in China the
decrease in solar irradiance was not always accompanied by an increase in cloud cover and precipitation. It is
believed that aerosols may play a critical role in the decrease of solar irradiance in China.[22]
BBC Horizon producer David Sington believes that many climate scientists regard the pan-evaporation data as the
most convincing evidence of solar dimming.[23] Pan evaporation experiments are easy to reproduce with low-cost
equipment, there are many pans used for agriculture all over the world and in many instances the data has been
collected for nearly a half century. However, pan evaporation depends on some additional factors besides net
radiation from the sun. The other two major factors are vapor pressure deficit and wind speed.[24] The ambient
temperature turns out to be a negligible factor. The pan evaporation data corroborates the data gathered by
radiometer[16] [21] and fills in the gaps in the data obtained using pyranometers. With adjustments to these factors,
pan evaporation data has been compared to results of climate simulations.[25]

Probable causes
The incomplete combustion of fossil fuels (such as diesel) and wood
releases black carbon into the air. Though black carbon, most of which
is soot, is an extremely small component of air pollution at land surface
levels, the phenomenon has a significant heating effect on the
atmosphere at altitudes above two kilometers (6,562 ft). Also, it dims
the surface of the ocean by absorbing solar radiation.[27]

Experiments in the Maldives (comparing the atmosphere over the


northern and southern islands) in the 1990s showed that the effect of
macroscopic pollutants in the atmosphere at that time (blown south NASA photograph showing aircraft contrails and
from India) caused about a 10% reduction in sunlight reaching the natural clouds. The temporary disappearance of
surface in the area under the pollution cloud — a much greater contrails over North America due to plane
groundings after the September 11, 2001 attacks,
reduction than expected from the presence of the particles
and the resulting increase in diurnal temperature
themselves.[28] Prior to the research being undertaken, predictions range gave empirical evidence of the effect of
were of a 0.5–1% effect from particulate matter; the variation from [26]
thin ice clouds at the Earth's surface.
prediction may be explained by cloud formation with the particles
acting as the focus for droplet creation. Clouds are very effective at reflecting light back out into space.

The phenomenon underlying global dimming may also have regional effects. While most of the earth has warmed,
the regions that are downwind from major sources of air pollution (specifically sulfur dioxide emissions) have
Global dimming 71

generally cooled. This may explain the cooling of the eastern United States relative to the warming western part.[29]
However some research shows that black carbon will actually increase global warming, being second only to CO2.
They believe that soot will absorb solar energy and transport it to other areas such as the Himalayas where glacial
melting occurs. It can also darken Arctic ice reducing reflectivity and increasing absorption of solar radiation.[30]
Some climate scientists have theorized that aircraft contrails (also called vapor trails) are implicated in global
dimming, but the constant flow of air traffic previously meant that this could not be tested. The near-total shutdown
of civil air traffic during the three days following the September 11, 2001 attacks afforded a unique opportunity in
which to observe the climate of the United States absent from the effect of contrails. During this period, an increase
in diurnal temperature variation of over 1 °C (1.8 °F) was observed in some parts of the U.S., i.e. aircraft contrails
may have been raising nighttime temperatures and/or lowering daytime temperatures by much more than previously
thought.[26]
Airborne volcanic ash can reflect the Sun's rays back into space and thereby contribute to cooling the planet. Dips in
earth temperatures have been observed after large volcano eruptions such as Mount Agung in Bali that erupted in
1963, El Chichon (Mexico) 1983, Ruiz (Colombia) 1985, and Pinatubo (Philippines) 1991. But even for major
eruptions, the ash clouds remain only for relatively short periods.[31]

Recent reversal of the trend


Wild et al., using measurements over
land, report brightening since 1990,[13]
[32] [33]
and Pinker et al.[34] found that
slight dimming continued over land
while brightening occurred over the
ocean.[35] Hence, over the land
surface, Wild et al. and Pinker et al.
disagree. A 2007 NASA sponsored
satellite-based study sheds light on the
Sun-blocking aerosols around the world steadily declined (red line) since the 1991
puzzling observations by other
eruption of Mount Pinatubo, according to satellite estimates. Credit: Michael
scientists that the amount of sunlight Mishchenko, NASA
reaching Earth's surface had been
steadily declining in recent decades, began to reverse around 1990. This switch from a "global dimming" trend to a
"brightening" trend happened just as global aerosol levels started to decline.[31] [36]

It is likely that at least some of this change, particularly over Europe, is due to decreases in airborne pollution. Most
governments of developed nations have taken steps to reduce aerosols released into the atmosphere, which helps
reduce global dimming.
Sulfate aerosols have declined significantly since 1970 with the Clean Air Act in the United States and similar
policies in Europe. The Clean Air Act was strengthened in 1977 and 1990. According to the EPA, from 1970 to
2005, total emissions of the six principal air pollutants, including PM’s, dropped by 53% in the US. In 1975, the
masked effects of trapped greenhouse gases finally started to emerge and have dominated ever since.[37]
The Baseline Surface Radiation Network(BSRN) has been collecting surface measurements. BSRN was started in
the early 1990s and updated the archives in this time. Analysis of recent data reveals that the surface of the planet
has brightened by about 4% in the past decade. The brightening trend is corroborated by other data, including
satellite analyses.
Global dimming 72

Relationship to hydrological cycle


Pollution produced by humans may be seriously
weakening the Earth's water cycle — reducing rainfall
and threatening fresh water supplies. A 2001 study by
researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography
suggests that tiny particles of soot and other pollutants
have a significant effect on the hydrological cycle.
According to Veerabhadran Ramanathan, "the energy
for the hydrological cycle comes from sunlight. As
sunlight heats the ocean, water escapes into the
atmosphere and falls out as rain. So as aerosols cut
down sunlight by large amounts, they may be spinning
down the hydrological cycle of the planet."[38]

Large scale changes in weather patterns may also have


been caused by global dimming. Climate modelers
speculatively suggest that this reduction in solar
radiation at the surface may have led to the failure of
the monsoon in sub-Saharan Africa during the 1970s
and 1980s, together with the associated famines such as This figure shows the level of agreement between a climate model
the Sahel drought, caused by Northern hemisphere driven by five factors and the historical temperature record. The
[39] negative component identified as "sulfate" is associated with the
pollution cooling the Atlantic. Because of this, the
aerosol emissions blamed for global dimming.
Tropical rain belt may not have risen to its northern
latitudes, thus causing an absence of seasonal rains.
This claim is not universally accepted and is very difficult to test. However a 2009 Chinese study of 50 years of
continuous data found that though most parts of eastern China saw no significant change in the amount of water held
by the atmosphere but light rains had decreased.[4] In addition, where the atmosphere transported water vapor didn't
coincide with light rain frequency. The researchers then modeled the effect of aerosols and also concluded the
overall effect was that water drops in polluted cases are up to 50 percent smaller than in pristine skies. They
concluded smaller size impedes the formation of rain clouds and the falling of light rain beneficial for agriculture; a
different effect than reducing solar irradiance, but still a direct result from the presence of aerosols.

The 2001 study by researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography concluded that the imbalance between
global dimming and global warming at the surface leads to weaker turbulent heat fluxes to the atmosphere. This
means globally reduced evaporation and hence precipitation occur in a dimmer and warmer world, which could
ultimately lead to a more humid atmosphere in which it rains less.[40]
A natural form of large scale environmental shading/dimming has been identified that affected the 2006 northern
hemisphere hurricane season. The NASA study found that several major dust storms in June and July in the Sahara
desert sent dust drifting over the Atlantic Ocean and through several effects caused cooling of the waters — and thus
dampening the development of hurricanes.[41] [42]

Relationship to global warming


Some scientists now consider that the effects of global dimming have masked the effect of global warming to some
extent and that resolving global dimming may therefore lead to increases in predictions of future temperature rise.[43]
According to Beate Liepert, "We lived in a global warming plus a global dimming world and now we are taking out
global dimming. So we end up with the global warming world, which will be much worse than we thought it will be,
much hotter."[44] The magnitude of this masking effect is one of the central problems in climate change with
Global dimming 73

significant implications for future climate changes and policy responses to global warming.[43]
Interactions between the two theories for climate modification have also been studied, as global warming and global
dimming are neither mutually exclusive nor contradictory. In a paper published on March 8, 2005 in the American
Geophysical Union's Geophysical Research Letters, a research team led by Anastasia Romanou of Columbia
University's Department of Applied Physics and Mathematics, New York, also showed that the apparently opposing
forces of global warming and global dimming can occur at the same time.[45] Global dimming interacts with global
warming by blocking sunlight that would otherwise cause evaporation and the particulates bind to water droplets.
Water vapor is the major greenhouse gas. On the other hand, global dimming is affected by evaporation and rain.
Rain has the effect of clearing out polluted skies.
Brown clouds have been found to amplify global warming according to Veerabhadran Ramanathan, an atmospheric
chemist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, CA. "The conventional thinking is that brown clouds
have masked as much as 50 percent of global warming by greenhouse gases through so-called global dimming...
While this is true globally, this study reveals that over southern and eastern Asia, the soot particles in the brown
clouds are in fact amplifying the atmospheric warming trend caused by greenhouse gases by as much as 50
percent."[46]

Possible use to mitigate global warming


Some scientists have suggested using aerosols to stave off the effects of global warming as an emergency
geoengineering measure.[47] In 1974, Mikhail Budyko suggested that if global warming became a problem, the
planet could be cooled by burning sulfur in the stratosphere, which would create a haze.[48] [49] An increase in
planetary albedo of just 0.5 percent is sufficient to halve the effect of a CO2 doubling.[50]
The simplest solution would be to simply emit more sulfates, which would end up in troposphere - the lowest part of
the atmosphere. If this was done, Earth would still face many problems, such as:
• Using sulfates causes environmental problems such as acid rain[51]
• Using carbon black causes human health problems[51]
• Dimming causes ecological problems such as changes in evaporation and rainfall patterns[51]
• Droughts and/or increased rainfall cause problems for agriculture[51]
• Aerosol has a relatively short lifetime
The solution actually advocated is transporting sulfates into the next higher layer of the atmosphere - stratosphere.
Aerosols in the stratosphere last years instead of weeks - so only a relatively smaller (though still large) amount of
sulfate emissions would be necessary, and side effects would be less. This would require developing an efficient way
to transport large amounts of gases into stratosphere, many of which have been proposed [52] though none are
known to be effective or economically viable.
In a blog post, Gavin Schmidt stated that "Ideas that we should increase aerosol emissions to counteract global
warming have been described as a 'Faustian bargain' because that would imply an ever increasing amount of
emissions in order to match the accumulated greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, with ever increasing monetary and
health costs."[53]
Global dimming 74

References
[1] Hegerl, G. C.; Zwiers, F. W.; Braconnot, P.; Gillett, N.P.; Luo, Y.; Marengo Orsini, J.A.; Nicholls, N.; Penner, J.E. et al. (2007). "Chapter 9,
Understanding and Attributing Climate Change – Section 9.2.2 Spatial and Temporal Patterns of the Response to Different Forcings and their
Uncertainties" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter9. pdf). In Marquis, M.; Qin, D.; Manning, M. et al..
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ ipccreports/ ar4-wg1. htm). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.: Cambridge University Press. . Retrieved 2008-04-13. "See 9.2.2.2"
[2] Keneth L. Denman and Guy Brasseur, et al. (2007). "Couplings between changes in Climate System and the Biogeochemistry, 7.5.3" (http:/ /
www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter7. pdf) (PDF). IPCC. . Retrieved 2008-04-09.
[3] "The Physical Basis for Seeding Clouds" (http:/ / www. atmos-inc. com/ weamod. html). Atmospherics Inc.. 1996. . Retrieved 2008-04-03.
[4] Yun Qian, Daoyi Gong, et al. (2009). "The Sky Is Not Falling: Pollution in eastern China cuts light, useful rainfall" (http:/ / www. physorg.
com/ news169474977. html). Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. . Retrieved 2009-08-16.
[5] Budyko, M.I. (1969). "The effect of solar radiation variations on the climate of the Earth" (http:/ / md1. csa. com/ partners/ viewrecord.
php?requester=gs& collection=TRD& recid=A7021919AH& q=& uid=790417110& setcookie=yes). Tellus 21 (5): 611–619.
doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1969.tb00466.x. .
[6] Rasool, Ichtiaque, S. and Schneider, Stephen H. (July 1971). "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on
Global Climate" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 173/ 3992/ 138). Science 173 (3992): 138–141.
doi:10.1126/science.173.3992.138. PMID 17739641. .
[7] Lockwood, John G. (1979). Causes of Climate. Lecture notes in mathematics 1358. New York: John Wiley & Sons. pp. 162.
ISBN 0470266570.
[8] Ohmura, A. and Lang, H. (June 1989). Lenoble, J. and Geleyn, J.-F. (Eds). ed. Secular variation of global radiation in Europe. In IRS '88:
Current Problems in Atmospheric Radiation, A. Deepak Publ., Hampton, VA. , Hampton, VA: Deepak Publ.. pp. (635) pp. 298–301.
ISBN 978-0-937194-16-4.
[9] Russak, V. (1990). "Trends of solar radiation, cloudiness and atmospheric transparency during recent decades in Estonia". Tellus B 42 (2):
206. Bibcode 1990TellB..42..206R. doi:10.1034/j.1600-0889.1990.t01-1-00006.x. 1990TellB..42..206R.
[10] Liepert, B. G., P. Fabian, et al. (1994). "Solar radiation in Germany - Observed trends and an assessment of their causes. Part 1. Regional
approach". Contr. Atm. Physics 67: 15–29.
[11] Abakumova, G.M. et al. (1996). "Evaluation of long-term changes in radiation, cloudiness and surface temperature on the territory of the
former Soviet Union" (http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ archive/ 1520-0442/ 9/ 6/ pdf/ i1520-0442-9-6-1319. pdf) (PDF). Journal of Climate 9
(6): 1319–1327. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1319:EOLTCI>2.0.CO;2. .
[12] Stanhill, G. and Moreshet, S. (2004-11-06). "Global radiation climate changes in Israel" (http:/ / www. springerlink. com/ content/
ut2520p2471wk486/ ). Climatic Change 22 (2): 121–138. doi:10.1007/BF00142962. .
[13] "Earth lightens up" (http:/ / www. pnl. gov/ topstory. asp?id=20). Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. . Retrieved May 8, 2005.
[14] Eddy, John A. Gilliland, Ronald L. & Hoyt, Douglas V. (1982-12-23). "Changes in the solar constant and climatic effects" (http:/ / www.
nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v300/ n5894/ abs/ 300689a0. html). Nature 300 (5894): 689–693. doi:10.1038/300689a0. . "Spacecraft
measurements have established that the total radiative output of the Sun varies at the 0.1−0.3% level".
[15] H. Gilgen, M. Wild, and A. Ohmura (1998). "Means and trends of shortwave irradiance at the surface estimated from global energy balance
archive data" (http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ archive/ 1520-0442/ 11/ 8/ pdf/ i1520-0442-11-8-2042. pdf) (PDF). Journal of Climate 11 (8):
2042–2061. doi:10.1175/1520-0442-11.8.2042. .
[16] Stanhill, G. and S. Cohen (2001). "Global dimming: a review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation
with discussion of its probable causes and possible agricultural consequences" (http:/ / www. sciencedirect. com/ science?_ob=ArticleURL&
_udi=B6V8W-42JYVKX-1& _user=10& _rdoc=1& _fmt=& _orig=search& _sort=d& _docanchor=& view=c& _rerunOrigin=google&
_acct=C000050221& _version=1& _urlVersion=0& _userid=10& md5=089bea6bf240b57ec1cc5b74b863e0f6). Agricultural and Forest
Meteorology 107 (4): 255–278. doi:10.1016/S0168-1923(00)00241-0. .
[17] Liepert, B. G. (2002-05-02). "Observed Reductions in Surface Solar Radiation in the United States and Worldwide from 1961 to 1990"
(http:/ / www. ldeo. columbia. edu/ ~liepert/ pdf/ 2003GL019060. pdf) (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters 29 (12): 1421.
doi:10.1029/2002GL014910. .
[18] Wild, Martin; Trüssel, Barbara; Ohmura, Atsumu; Long, Charles N.; König-Langlo, Gert; Dutton, Ellsworth G.; Tsvetkov, Anatoly
(2009-05-16). "Global dimming and brightening: An update beyond 2000" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2009/ 2008JD011382.
shtml). Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 114: D00D13. doi:10.1029/2008JD011382. .
[19] R. E. Carnell, C. A. Senior (1998-04). "Changes in mid-latitude variability due to increasing greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols" (http:/
/ www. springerlink. com/ content/ rreh3q3kkf79f65x/ ). Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin / Heidelberg 14 (5): 369–383.
doi:10.1007/s003820050229. .
[20] Adam, David (2003-12-18). "Goodbye sunshine" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ science/ 2003/ dec/ 18/ science. research1). Guardian
News and Media Limited. . Retrieved 2009-08-26.
[21] Roderick, Michael L. and Farquhar, Graham D. (2002). "The Cause of Decreased Pan Evaporation over the Past 50 Years" (http:/ / www.
sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 298/ 5597/ 1410). Science 298 (5597): 1410–1411. doi:10.1126/science.1075390. PMID 12434057. .
Global dimming 75

[22] Liu B., Xu M., Henderson M. & Gong W. (2004). "A spatial analysis of pan evaporation trends in China, 1955-2000" (http:/ / www. agu.
org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2004/ 2004JD004511. shtml). Journal of Geophysical Research 109 (D15): D15102. doi:10.1029/2004JD004511. .
[23] Sington, David (January 15, 2005). "TV&Radio follow-up" (http:/ / www. bbc. co. uk/ sn/ tvradio/ programmes/ horizon/ dimming_qa.
shtml). BBC - Science & Nature - Horizon. .
[24] Roderick, Michael L.; Leon D. Rotstayn, Graham D. Farquhar, Michael T. Hobbins (2007-09-13). "On the attribution of changing pan
evaporation" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2007/ 2007GL031166. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 34 (17): L17403.
doi:10.1029/2007GL031166. .
[25] Rotstayn L.D., Roderick M.L. & Farquhar G.D. (2006). "A simple pan-evaporation model for analysis of climate simulations: Evaluation
over Australia" (http:/ / www. rsbs. anu. edu. au/ Profiles/ Graham_Farquhar/ documents/ 235doiRotstaynpanGRL2006. pdf) (PDF).
Geophysical Research Letters 33 (17): L17403. doi:10.1029/2006GL027114. .
[26] Travis, David J. (2002). "Contrails reduce daily temperature range" (http:/ / facstaff. uww. edu/ travisd/ pdf/ jetcontrailsrecentresearch. pdf)
(PDF). Nature 418 (6898): 601. doi:10.1038/418601a. PMID 12167846. .
[27] "Transported Black Carbon A Significant Player In Pacific Ocean Climate" (http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com/ releases/ 2007/ 03/
070314134655. htm). Science Daily. 2007-03-15. .
[28] J. Srinivasan et al. (2002). "Asian Brown Cloud – fact and fantasy" (http:/ / www. ias. ac. in/ currsci/ sep102002/ 586. pdf) (PDF). Current
Science 83 (5): 586–592. .
[29] "Crichton's Thriller State of Fear: Separating Fact from Fiction" (http:/ / www. ucsusa. org/ global_warming/ science/
crichton-thriller-state-of-fear. html). . Retrieved 2006-06-12.
[30] "Nature Geoscience: Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ ngeo/ journal/ vaop/ ncurrent/
full/ ngeo156. html). . Retrieved 2008-03-26.
[31] "Global 'Sunscreen' Has Likely Thinned, Report NASA Scientists" (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/ centers/ goddard/ news/ topstory/ 2007/
aerosol_dimming. html). NASA. 2007-03-15. .
[32] Wild, M et al. (2005). "From Dimming to Brightening: Decadal Changes in Solar Radiation at Earth’s Surface" (http:/ / www. sciencemag.
org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 308/ 5723/ 847). Science 308 (2005-05-06): 847–850. doi:10.1126/science.1103215. PMID 15879214. .
[33] Wild, M., A. Ohmura, and K. Makowski (2007). "Impact of global dimming and brightening on global warming" (http:/ / www. agu. org/
pubs/ crossref/ 2007/ 2006GL028031. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 34 (4): L04702. doi:10.1029/2006GL028031. .
[34] Pinker, et al.; Zhang, B; Dutton, EG (2005). "Do Satellites Detect Trends in Surface Solar Radiation?" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/
content/ abstract/ 308/ 5723/ 850). Science 308 (6 May 2005): 850–854. doi:10.1126/science.1103159. PMID 15879215. .
[35] "Global Dimming may have a brighter future" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php?p=154). . Retrieved 2006-06-12.
[36] Richard A. Kerr (2007-03-16). "Climate change: Is a Thinning Haze Unveiling the Real Global Warming?" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/
cgi/ content/ summary/ 315/ 5818/ 1480). Science (Science) 315 (5818): 1480. doi:10.1126/science.315.5818.1480. PMID 17363636. .
[37] "Air Emissions Trends - Continued Progress Through 2005" (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ airtrends/ econ-emissions. html). .
[38] Cat Lazaroff (2007-12-07). "Aerosol Pollution Could Drain Earth's Water Cycle" (http:/ / ens-newswire. com/ ens/ dec2001/ 2001-12-07-07.
asp). Environment News Service. .
[39] Rotstayn and Lohmann; Lohmann, Ulrike (2002). "Tropical Rainfall Trends and the Indirect Aerosol Effect" (http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/
perlserv/ ?request=get-abstract& issn=1520-0442& volume=015& issue=15& page=2103). Journal of Climate 15 (15): 2103–2116.
doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2103:TRTATI>2.0.CO;2. .
[40] Kostel, Ken and Oh, Clare (2006-04-14). "Could Reducing Global Dimming Mean a Hotter, Dryer World?" (http:/ / www. ldeo. columbia.
edu/ news/ 2006/ 04_14_06. htm). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory News. . Retrieved 2006-06-12.
[41] "Study ties hurricanes to Sahara" (http:/ / www. upi. com/ NewsTrack/ Science/ 2007/ 04/ 03/ study_ties_hurricanes_to_sahara/ ). United
Press International. 2007-04-03. .
[42] "Did Dust Bust the 2006 Hurricane Season Forecasts?" (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/ mission_pages/ hurricanes/ archives/ 2007/ hurricane_dust.
html). NASA. 2007-03-28. .
[43] Andreae O. M., Jones C. D., Cox P. M. (2005). "Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/
journal/ v435/ n7046/ abs/ nature03671. html). Nature 435 (7046): 1187–1190. doi:10.1038/nature03671. PMID 15988515. .
[44] "Global Dimming" (http:/ / www. bbc. co. uk/ sn/ tvradio/ programmes/ horizon/ dimming_trans. shtml). BBC. . Retrieved 06 April 2009.
[45] Alpert, P., P. Kishcha, Y. J. Kaufman, and R. Schwarzbard (2005). "Global dimming or local dimming?: Effect of urbanization on sunlight
availability" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2005/ 2005GL023320. shtml). Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 (17): L17802.
doi:10.1029/2005GL023320. .
[46] National Science Foundation (2007-08-01). ""Brown Cloud" Particulate Pollution Amplifies Global Warming" (http:/ / www. nsf. gov/
news/ news_summ. jsp?cntn_id=109712). . Retrieved 2008-04-03.
[47] William J. Broad (27 June 2006). "How to Cool a Planet (Maybe)" (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2006/ 06/ 27/ science/ earth/ 27cool. html).
The New York Times. . Retrieved 6 April 2009.
[48] Spencer Weart (July 2006). "Aerosols: Effects of Haze and Cloud" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ aerosol. htm). The Discovery of
Global Warming. American Institute of Physics. . Retrieved 06 April 2009.
[49] Crutzen, P. (August 2006). "Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections: a contribution to resolve a policy dilemma?" (http:/ /
www. cogci. dk/ news/ Crutzen_albedo enhancement_sulfur injections. pdf) (PDF). Climatic Change 77 (3-4): 211–220.
doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9101-y. .
Global dimming 76

[50] Ramanathan, V. (1988-04-15). "The greenhouse theory of climate change: a test by an inadvertent global experiment". Science 240 (4850):
293–299. doi:10.1126/science.240.4850.293. PMID 17796737.
[51] Ramanathan, V. (2006). "Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Health, Climate and Agriculture Impacts" (http:/ / www-ramanathan. ucsd. edu/
PASScriptaVaria106. pdf) (PDF). Pontifical Academy of Sciences Scripta Varia (Pontifica Academia Scientiarvm) 106 (Interactions Between
Global Change and Human Health): 47–60. .
[52] http:/ / climate. envsci. rutgers. edu/ pdf/ GRLreview2. pdf
[53] "RealClimate: Global Dimming?" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php?p=105). 2005-01-18. . Retrieved 2007-04-05.

External links
Bibliographies
• Roderick, Michael. "Global Dimming Bibliography" (http://www.greenhouse.crc.org.au/research/c2_bibliog.
cfm).
• Saunders, Alison. "Global Dimming Bibliography" (http://www.greenhouse.crc.org.au/crc/research/
c2_bibliog.htm).
Notable web pages
• Shah, Anup. "Global Dimming" (http://www.globalissues.org/EnvIssues/GlobalWarming/globaldimming.
asp). Global Issues.
• Liepert, Beate. "Global Dimming (requires flash)" (http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~liepert/media/flash/
globalDimming.swf). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University.
• Schmidt, Gavin. "Global Dimming - part 1" (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=105). RealClimate.
• Liepert, Beate. "Global Dimming - part 2" (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=110). RealClimate.
• Connolley, William. "Global Dimming may have a brighter future" (http://www.realclimate.org/index.
php?p=154). RealClimate.
• Haywood, Jim. "Met Office: Global dimming" (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/
explained/explained3.html). The Met Office.
Podcasts
• "Brown Cloud" (http://www.ecoshock.org/downloads/ecoshock/Ecoshock_BrownCloud.mp3) (mp3).
Ecoshock.
Q&A
• "BBC Global Dimming Q&A" (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_qa.shtml).
News articles
• Adam, David (2003-12-18). "Goodbye Sunshine" (http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/feature/story/
0,13026,1108853,00.html). The Guardian.
• Chang, Kenneth (2004-05-13). "Globe Grows Darker as Sunshine Diminishes 10% to 37%" (http://www.
commondreams.org/headlines04/0513-01.htm). The New York Times.
• Appell, David (2004-08-02). "The Darkening Earth Less sun at the Earth's surface complicates climate models"
(http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=000C3AAE-D82A-10F9-975883414B7F0000). Scientific
American.
• Keen, Kip (2004-09-22). "Dim Sun Global dimming? Global warming? What's with the globe, anyway?" (http://
www.grist.org/news/maindish/2004/09/22/keen-dimming). Grist Magazine.
• Sington, David (2005-01-13). "Why the Sun seems to be 'dimming'" (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/
4171591.stm). BBC News.
• Onion, Amanda (2006-02-09). "Are Skies Dimming Over Earth? Data Suggest Human Pollution Can Lead to
Darker Days" (http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/GlobalWarming/story?id=1566139). ABC News.
• "Transported Black Carbon A Significant Player In Pacific Ocean Climate" (http://www.sciencedaily.com/
releases/2007/03/070314134655.htm). Science Daily. 2007-03-15.
Global dimming 77

• "Global 'Sunscreen' Has Likely Thinned, Report NASA Scientists" (http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/


news/topstory/2007/aerosol_dimming.html). NASA. 2007-03-15.
• Catherine, Brahic (2007-11-14). "Pollution is dimming India's sunshine" (http://environment.newscientist.com/
channel/earth/dn12919-pollution-is-dimming-indias-sunshine.html). New Scientist.
• Seinfeld, John (January 2008). "Atmospheric science: Black carbon and brown clouds" (http://www.nature.
com/ngeo/journal/v1/n1/full/ngeo.2007.62.html). Nature Geoscience 1 (1): 15–6.
doi:10.1038/ngeo.2007.62.
Slide decks
• Irina N. Sokolik. "Atmospheric Aerosol and Air Pollution" (http://www.neespi.org/web-content/meetings/
IGBPbrief/Briefing_Sokolik.pdf) (PDF). School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of
Technology Atlanta, GA, USA.
Television programs
• "Report on another consequence of global warming: the dimming effect of clouds" (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/
tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_prog_summary.shtml). BBC2 TV Horizon. 2005-01-15.
• "Dimming The Sun" (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sun/). PBS WGBH Boston NOVA. 2006-04-18.
• "BBC Horizon - Global Dimming - Google Video" (http://video.google.com/
videoplay?docid=39520879762623193). BBC Horizon.

Global warming potential


Global warming potential (GWP) is a relative measure of how much heat a greenhouse gas traps in the atmosphere.
It compares the amount of heat trapped by a certain mass of the gas in question to the amount heat trapped by a
similar mass of carbon dioxide. A GWP is calculated over a specific time interval, commonly 20, 100 or 500 years.
GWP is expressed as a factor of carbon dioxide (whose GMP is standardized to 1). For example, the 20 year GWP of
Methane is 56, which means if the same weights of Methane and carbon dioxide were introduced into the
atmosphere, that Methane will trap 56 times more heat than the carbon dioxide over the next 20 years.[1]
The substances subject to restrictions under the Kyoto protocol either are rapidly increasing their concentrations in
Earth's atmosphere or have a large GWP.
The GWP depends on the following factors:
• the absorption of infrared radiation by a given species
• the spectral location of its absorbing wavelengths
• the atmospheric lifetime of the species
Thus, a high GWP correlates with a large infrared absorption and a long atmospheric lifetime. The dependence of
GWP on the wavelength of absorption is more complicated. Even if a gas absorbs radiation efficiently at a certain
wavelength, this may not affect its GWP much if the atmosphere already absorbs most radiation at that wavelength.
A gas has the most effect if it absorbs in a "window" of wavelengths where the atmosphere is fairly transparent. The
dependence of GWP as a function of wavelength has been found empirically and published as a graph.[2]
Because the GWP of a greenhouse gas depends directly on its infrared spectrum, the use of infrared spectroscopy to
study greenhouse gases is centrally important in the effort to understand the impact of human activities on global
climate change.
Global warming potential 78

Calculating the global warming potential


Just as radiative forcing provides a simplified means of comparing the various factors that are believed to influence
the climate system to one another, Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) are one type of simplified index based upon
radiative properties that can be used to estimate the potential future impacts of emissions of different gases upon the
climate system in a relative sense. GWP is based on a number of factors, including the radiative efficiency
(infrared-absorbing ability) of each gas relative to that of carbon dioxide, as well as the decay rate of each gas (the
amount removed from the atmosphere over a given number of years) relative to that of carbon dioxide.[3]
The radiative forcing capacity (RF) is the amount of energy per unit area, per unit time, absorbed by the
greenhouse gas, that would otherwise be lost to space. It can be expressed by the formula:

where the subscript i represents an interval of 10 inverse centimeters. Absi represents the integrated infrared
absorbance of the sample in that interval, and Fi represents the RF for that interval.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the generally accepted values for GWP, which
changed slightly between 1996 and 2001. An exact definition of how GWP is calculated is to be found in the IPCC's
2001 Third Assessment Report [4]. The GWP is defined as the ratio of the time-integrated radiative forcing from the
instantaneous release of 1 kg of a trace substance relative to that of 1 kg of a reference gas:

where TH is the time horizon over which the calculation is considered; ax is the radiative efficiency due to a unit
increase in atmospheric abundance of the substance (i.e., Wm−2 kg−1) and [x(t)] is the time-dependent decay in
abundance of the substance following an instantaneous release of it at time t=0. The denominator contains the
corresponding quantities for the reference gas (i.e. CO2). The radiative efficiencies ax and ar are not necessarily
constant over time. While the absorption of infrared radiation by many greenhouse gases varies linearly with their
abundance, a few important ones display non-linear behaviour for current and likely future abundances (e.g., CO2,
CH4, and N2O). For those gases, the relative radiative forcing will depend upon abundance and hence upon the
future scenario adopted.
Since all GWP calculations are a comparison to CO2 which is non-linear, all GWP values are affected. Assuming
otherwise as is done above will lead to lower GWPs for other gases than a more detailed approach would.

Use in Kyoto Protocol


Under the Kyoto Protocol, the Conference of the Parties decided (decision 2/CP.3) that the values of GWP calculated
for the IPCC Second Assessment Report are to be used for converting the various greenhouse gas emissions into
comparable CO2 equivalents when computing overall sources and sinks.[5]

Importance of time horizon


Note that a substance's GWP depends on the timespan over which the potential is calculated. A gas which is quickly
removed from the atmosphere may initially have a large effect but for longer time periods as it has been removed
becomes less important. Thus methane has a potential of 25 over 100 years but 72 over 20 years; conversely sulfur
hexafluoride has a GWP of 22,800 over 100 years but 16,300 over 20 years (IPCC TAR). The GWP value depends
on how the gas concentration decays over time in the atmosphere. This is often not precisely known and hence the
values should not be considered exact. For this reason when quoting a GWP it is important to give a reference to the
calculation.
Global warming potential 79

The GWP for a mixture of gases can not be determined from the GWP of the constituent gases by any form of
simple linear addition.
Commonly, a time horizon of 100 years is used by regulators (e.g., the California Air Resources Board).

Values
Carbon dioxide has a GWP of exactly 1 (since it is the baseline unit to which all other greenhouse gases are
compared).

Lifetime (years) GWP time horizon


GWP values and lifetimes from 2007 IPCC AR4 p212
[6]
20 years 100 years 500 years
(2001 IPCC TAR [7] in parentheses)

Methane 12         (12) 72         (62) 25         (23) 7.6       (7)

Nitrous oxide 114       (114) 289       (275) 298       (296) 153       (156)

HFC-23 (hydrofluorocarbon) 270       (260) 12,000   (9400) 14,800   (12,000) 12,200   (10,000)

HFC-134a (hydrofluorocarbon) 14         (13.8) 3,830     (3,300) 1,430     (1,300) 435       (400)

sulfur hexafluoride 3200     (3,200) 16,300   (15,100) 22,800   (22,200) 32,600   (32,400)

Although water vapour has a significant influence with regard to absorbing infrared radiation (which is the green
house effect; see greenhouse gas), its GWP is not calculated. Its concentration in the atmosphere mainly depends on
air temperature. There is no possibility to directly influence atmospheric water vapour concentration.

References
[1] "Global Warming Potentials" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ ghg_data/ items/ 3825. php). Climate Change 1995, The Science of Climate Change:
Summary for Policymakers. Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report, page 22.. 1995. . Retrieved 2011-04-26.
[2] Matthew Elrod, "Greenhouse Warming Potential Model." (http:/ / www. chem. tamu. edu/ rgroup/ north/ ITS GWP Data. xls) Based on
Journal of Chemical Education, Vol 76, pp. 1702-1705, December 1999
[3] "Glossary: Global warming potential (GWP)" (http:/ / www. eia. gov/ tools/ glossary/ index. cfm?id=G). U.S. Energy Information
Administration. . Retrieved 2011-04-26. "An index used to compare the relative radiative forcing of different gases without directly
calculating the changes in atmospheric concentrations. GWPs are calculated as the ratio of the radiative forcing that would result from the
emission of one kilogram of a greenhouse gas to that from the emission of one kilogram of carbon dioxide over a fixed period of time, such as
100 years."
[4] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 247. htm
[5] Conference of the Parties (25 March 1998). "Methodological issues related to the Kyoto Protocol" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ resource/ docs/ cop3/
07a01. pdf). Report of the Conference of the Parties on its third session, held at Kyoto from 1 to 11 December 1997 Addendum Part Two:
Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its third session. UNFCCC. . Retrieved 17 January 2011.
[6] http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter2. pdf
[7] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 248. htm

External links
• 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by Working Group 1 (http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.
html) (WG1) and Chapter 2 of that report ( Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing (http:/
/www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf)) which contains GWP information.
• 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) page on Global Warming Potentials (http://www.grida.no/
climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/247.htm) and Direct GWP (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/248.htm).
• List of Global Warming Potentials and Atmospheric Lifetimes (http://www.epa.gov/nonco2/econ-inv/table.
html) from the U.S. EPA
• Greenhouse Gases and Global Warming Potential Values, Excerpt from the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas
Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2000 (http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/UniqueKeyLookup/
Global warming potential 80

SHSU5BUM9T/$File/ghg_gwp.pdf) from the U.S. EPA


• An overview of the role of H2O as a greenhouse gas (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=142)
• GWP and the different meanings of CO2e explained (http://www.darkoptimism.org/2008/09/03/
the-climate-science-translation-guide)

Greenhouse effect
The greenhouse effect is a process by which thermal radiation from a
planetary surface is absorbed by atmospheric greenhouse gases, and is
re-radiated in all directions. Since part of this re-radiation is back
towards the surface, energy is transferred to the surface and the lower
atmosphere. As a result, the temperature there is higher than it would
be if direct heating by solar radiation were the only warming
mechanism.[1] [2]

This mechanism is fundamentally different from that of an actual


greenhouse, which works by isolating warm air inside the structure so
A representation of the exchanges of energy
that heat is not lost by convection. between the source (the Sun), the Earth's surface,
The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824, first the Earth's atmosphere, and the ultimate sink
outer space. The ability of the atmosphere to
reliably experimented on by John Tyndall in 1858, and first reported
capture and recycle energy emitted by the Earth
quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.[3] surface is the defining characteristic of the
greenhouse effect.
If an ideal thermally conductive blackbody was the same distance from
the Sun as the Earth is, it would have a temperature of about 5.3 °C.
However, since the Earth reflects about 30%[4] (or 28%[5] ) of the incoming sunlight, the planet's effective
temperature (the temperature of a blackbody that would emit the same amount of radiation) is about −18 or −19
°C,[6] [7] about 33°C below the actual surface temperature of about 14 °C or 15 °C.[8] The mechanism that produces
this difference between the actual surface temperature and the effective temperature is due to the atmosphere and is
known as the greenhouse effect.

Global warming, a recent warming of the Earth's surface and lower atmosphere,[9] is believed to be the result of a
strengthening of the greenhouse effect mostly due to human-produced increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases.[10]

Basic mechanism
The Earth receives energy from the Sun in the form UV, visible, and near IR radiation, most of which passes through
the atmosphere without being absorbed. Of the total amount of energy available at the top of the atmosphere (TOA),
about 50% is absorbed at the Earth's surface. Because it is warm, the surface radiates far IR thermal radiation that
consists of wavelengths that are predominantly much longer than the wavelengths that were absorbed. Most of this
thermal radiation is absorbed by the atmosphere and re-radiated both upwards and downwards; that radiated
downwards is absorbed by the Earth's surface. This trapping of long-wavelength thermal radiation leads to a higher
equilibrium temperature than if the atmosphere were absent.
This highly simplified picture of the basic mechanism needs to be qualified in a number of ways, none of which
affect the fundamental process.
Greenhouse effect 81

• The incoming radiation from the Sun is mostly in the form of visible
light and nearby wavelengths, largely in the range 0.2–4 μm,
corresponding to the Sun's radiative temperature of 6,000 K.[11]
Almost half the radiation is in the form of "visible" light, which our
eyes are adapted to use.[12]
• About 50% of the Sun's energy is absorbed at the Earth's surface
and the rest is reflected or absorbed by the atmosphere. The
reflection of light back into space—largely by clouds—does not
much affect the basic mechanism; this light, effectively, is lost to
The solar radiation spectrum for direct light at
the system. both the top of the Earth's atmosphere and at sea
• The absorbed energy warms the surface. Simple presentations of the level

greenhouse effect, such as the idealized greenhouse model, show


this heat being lost as thermal radiation. The reality is more complex: the atmosphere near the surface is largely
opaque to thermal radiation (with important exceptions for "window" bands), and most heat loss from the surface
is by sensible heat and latent heat transport. Radiative energy losses become increasingly important higher in the
atmosphere largely because of the decreasing concentration of water vapor, an important greenhouse gas. It is
more realistic to think of the greenhouse effect as applying to a "surface" in the mid-troposphere, which is
effectively coupled to the surface by a lapse rate.
• Within the region where radiative effects are important the description given by the idealized greenhouse model
becomes realistic: The surface of the Earth, warmed to a temperature around 255 K, radiates long-wavelength,
infrared heat in the range 4–100 μm.[11] At these wavelengths, greenhouse gases that were largely transparent to
incoming solar radiation are more absorbent.[11] Each layer of atmosphere with greenhouses gases absorbs some
of the heat being radiated upwards from lower layers. To maintain its own equilibrium, it re-radiates the absorbed
heat in all directions, both upwards and downwards. This results in more warmth below, while still radiating
enough heat back out into deep space from the upper layers to maintain overall thermal equilibrium. Increasing
the concentration of the gases increases the amount of absorption and re-radiation, and thereby further warms the
layers and ultimately the surface below.[7]
• Greenhouse gases—including most diatomic gases with two different atoms (such as carbon monoxide, CO) and
all gases with three or more atoms—are able to absorb and emit infrared radiation. Though more than 99% of the
dry atmosphere is IR transparent (because the main constituents—N2, O2, and Ar—are not able to directly absorb
or emit infrared radiation), intermolecular collisions cause the energy absorbed and emitted by the greenhouse
gases to be shared with the other, non-IR-active, gases.
• The simple picture assumes equilibrium. In the real world there is the diurnal cycle as well as seasonal cycles and
weather. Solar heating only applies during daytime. During the night, the atmosphere cools somewhat, but not
greatly, because its emissivity is low, and during the day the atmosphere warms. Diurnal temperature changes
decrease with height in the atmosphere.
Greenhouse effect 82

Greenhouse gases
By their percentage contribution to the greenhouse effect on Earth the four major gases are:[13] [14]
• water vapor, 36–70%
• carbon dioxide, 9–26%
• methane, 4–9%
• ozone, 3–7%
The major non-gas contributor to the Earth's greenhouse effect, clouds, also absorb and emit infrared radiation and
thus have an effect on radiative properties of the atmosphere.[14]

Role in climate change


Strengthening of the greenhouse effect through human activities is
known as the enhanced (or anthropogenic) greenhouse effect.[15] This
increase in radiative forcing from human activity is attributable mainly
to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.[16]
CO2 is produced by fossil fuel burning and other activities such as
cement production and tropical deforestation.[17] Measurements of CO2
from the Mauna Loa observatory show that concentrations have
increased from about 313 ppm [18] in 1960 to about 389 ppm in 2010. The Keeling Curve of atmospheric CO2
The current observed amount of CO2 exceeds the geological record concentrations measured at Mauna Loa
[19] Observatory.
maxima (~300 ppm) from ice core data. The effect of
combustion-produced carbon dioxide on the global climate, a special
case of the greenhouse effect first described in 1896 by Svante Arrhenius, has also been called the Callendar effect.

Because it is a greenhouse gas, elevated CO2 levels contribute to additional absorption and emission of thermal
infrared in the atmosphere, which produce net warming. According to the latest Assessment Report from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since
the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations".[20]
Over the past 800,000 years,[21] ice core data shows unambiguously that carbon dioxide has varied from values as
low as 180 parts per million (ppm) to the pre-industrial level of 270ppm.[22] Paleoclimatologists consider variations
in carbon dioxide to be a fundamental factor in controlling climate variations over this time scale.[23] [24]

Real greenhouses
The "greenhouse effect" is named by analogy to greenhouses. The
greenhouse effect and a real greenhouse are similar in that they both
limit the rate of thermal energy flowing out of the system, but the
mechanisms by which heat is retained are different.[25] A greenhouse
works primarily by preventing absorbed heat from leaving the structure
through convection, i.e. sensible heat transport. The greenhouse effect
heats the earth because greenhouse gases absorb outgoing radiative
energy and re-emit some of it back towards earth.

A greenhouse is built of any material that passes sunlight, usually A modern Greenhouse in RHS Wisley
glass, or plastic. It mainly heats up because the Sun warms the ground
Greenhouse effect 83

inside, which then warms the air in the greenhouse. The air continues to heat because it is confined within the
greenhouse, unlike the environment outside the greenhouse where warm air near the surface rises and mixes with
cooler air aloft. This can be demonstrated by opening a small window near the roof of a greenhouse: the temperature
will drop considerably. It has also been demonstrated experimentally (R. W. Wood, 1909) that a "greenhouse" with a
cover of rock salt (which is transparent to infra red) heats up an enclosure similarly to one with a glass cover.[26]
Thus greenhouses work primarily by preventing convective cooling.[27] [28]
In the greenhouse effect, rather than retaining (sensible) heat by physically preventing movement of the air,
greenhouse gases act to warm the Earth by re-radiating some of the energy back towards the surface. This process
may exist in real greenhouses, but is comparatively unimportant there.

Bodies other than Earth


In our solar system, Mars, Venus, and the moon Titan also exhibit greenhouse effects.[29] Titan has an
anti-greenhouse effect, in that its atmosphere absorbs solar radiation but is relatively transparent to infrared radiation.
Pluto also exhibits behavior superficially similar to the anti-greenhouse effect.[30] [31]
A runaway greenhouse effect occurs if positive feedbacks lead to the evaporation of all greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere.[32] A runaway greenhouse effect involving carbon dioxide and water vapor is thought to have occurred
on Venus.[33]

Literature
• Earth Radiation Budget, http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/education/class/yuri/erb.html
• Businger, Joost Alois; Fleagle, Robert Guthrie (1980). An introduction to atmospheric physics. International
geophysics series (2nd ed.). San Diego: Academic. ISBN 0-12-260355-9.
• IPCC assessment reports, see http://www.ipcc.ch/
• Henderson-Sellers, Ann; McGuffie, Kendal (2005). A climate modelling primer (3rd ed.). New York: Wiley.
ISBN 0-470-85750-1. "Greenhouse effect: the effect of the atmosphere in re-reradiating longwave radiation back
to the surface of the Earth. It has nothing to do with glasshouses, which trap warm air at the surface."
• Idso, S.B. (1982). Carbon dioxide : friend or foe? : an inquiry into the climatic and agricultural consequences of
the rapidly rising CO2 content of Earth's atmosphere. Tempe, AZ: IBR Press. OCLC 63236418. "...the
phraseology is somewhat in appropriate, since CO2 does not warm the planet in a manner analogous to the way in
which a greenhouse keeps its interior warm"
• Kiehl, J.T., Trenberth, K. (1997). "Earth's annual mean global energy budget". Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society 78 (2): 197–208. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0197:EAGMEB>2.0.CO;2.

References
[1] "Annex II Glossary" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ syr/ en/ annexessglossary-e-i. html). Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. . Retrieved 15 October 2010.
[2] A concise description of the greenhouse effect is given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, "What
is the Greenhouse Effect?" IIPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 1 (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/
ar4-wg1-chapter1. pdf), page 115: "To balance the absorbed incoming [solar] energy, the Earth must, on average, radiate the same amount of
energy back to space. Because the Earth is much colder than the Sun, it radiates at much longer wavelengths, primarily in the infrared part of
the spectrum (see Figure 1). Much of this thermal radiation emitted by the land and ocean is absorbed by the atmosphere, including clouds,
and reradiated back to Earth. This is called the greenhouse effect."
Stephen H. Schneider, in Geosphere-biosphere Interactions and Climate, Lennart O. Bengtsson and Claus U. Hammer, eds., Cambridge
University Press, 2001, ISBN 0521782384, pp. 90-91.
E. Claussen, V. A. Cochran, and D. P. Davis, Climate Change: Science, Strategies, & Solutions, University of Michigan, 2001. p. 373.
A. Allaby and M. Allaby, A Dictionary of Earth Sciences, Oxford University Press, 1999, ISBN 0192800795, p. 244.
[3] Annual Reviews (requires registration) (http:/ / arjournals. annualreviews. org/ doi/ full/ 10. 1146/ annurev. energy. 25. 1. 441)
[4] "NASA Earth Fact Sheet" (http:/ / nssdc. gsfc. nasa. gov/ planetary/ factsheet/ earthfact. html). Nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov. . Retrieved 2010-10-15.
Greenhouse effect 84

[5] "Introduction to Atmospheric Chemistry, by Daniel J. Jacob, Princeton University Press, 1999. Chapter 7, "The Greenhouse Effect"" (http:/ /
acmg. seas. harvard. edu/ people/ faculty/ djj/ book/ bookchap7. html). Acmg.seas.harvard.edu. . Retrieved 2010-10-15.
[6] "Solar Radiation and the Earth's Energy Balance" (http:/ / eesc. columbia. edu/ courses/ ees/ climate/ lectures/ radiation/ ). Eesc.columbia.edu.
. Retrieved 2010-10-15.
[7] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Chapter 1: Historical overview of climate change science (http:/ /
www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter1. pdf) page 97
[8] The elusive "absolute surface air temperature," see GISS discussion (http:/ / data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp/ abs_temp. html)
[9] Merged land air and sea surface temperature data set (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ gcag/ gcagmerged. jsp)
[10] "Enhanced greenhouse effect – a hot international topic" (http:/ / www. science. org. au/ nova/ 016/ 016key. htm). Nova. Australian
Academy of Science. 2008. . The enhanced greenhouse effect]
[11] Mitchell, John F. B. (1989). "THE "GREENHOUSE" EFFECT AND CLIMATE CHANGE" (http:/ / astrosun2. astro. cornell. edu/
academics/ courses/ astro202/ Mitchell_GRL89. pdf). Reviews of Geophysics (American Geophysical Union) 27 (1): 115–139.
doi:10.1029/RG027i001p00115. . Retrieved 2008-03-23.
[12] "Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SOURCE)" (http:/ / earthobservatory. nasa. gov/ Features/ SORCE/ sorce_02. php). NASA.Gov.
. Retrieved 15 October 2010.
[13] "Water vapour: feedback or forcing?" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php?p=142). RealClimate. 6 April 2005. . Retrieved
2006-05-01.
[14] Kiehl, J. T.; Kevin E. Trenberth (February 1997). "Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget" (http:/ / www. atmo. arizona. edu/ students/
courselinks/ spring04/ atmo451b/ pdf/ RadiationBudget. pdf) (PDF). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78 (2): 197–208.
doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0197:EAGMEB>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2009-12-23.
[15] "Enhanced greenhouse effect — Glossary" (http:/ / www. science. org. au/ nova/ 016/ 016glo. htm). Nova. Australian Academy of Science.
2006. .
[16] "Enhanced Greenhouse Effect" (http:/ / www. ace. mmu. ac. uk/ eae/ Global_Warming/ Older/ Enhanced_Greenhouse_Effect. html).
Ace.mmu.ac.uk. . Retrieved 2010-10-15.
[17] IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group I Report "The Physical Science Basis" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/
wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter7. pdf) Chapter 7
[18] "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide – Mauna Loa" (http:/ / www. esrl. noaa. gov/ gmd/ ccgg/ trends/ co2_data_mlo. html). NOAA. .
[19] Hansen J. (February 2005). "A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference”?" (http:/ /
www. springerlink. com/ content/ x283l27781675v51/ ?p=799ebc88193f4ecfa8ca76f6e28f45d7). Climatic Change 68 (333): 269–279.
doi:10.1007/s10584-005-4135-0. .
[20] IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Synthesis Report: Summary for Policymakers (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ syr/
ar4_syr_spm. pdf) (p. 5)
[21] "Deep ice tells long climate story" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 5314592. stm). BBC News. 2006-09-04. . Retrieved
2010-05-04.
[22] Hileman B (2005-11-28). "Ice Core Record Extended" (http:/ / pubs. acs. org/ cen/ news/ 83/ i48/ 8348notw1. html). Chemical &
Engineering News 83 (48): 7. .
[23] Bowen, Mark; Thin Ice: Unlocking the Secrets of Climate in the World's Highest Mountains; Owl Books, 2005.
[24] Temperature change and carbon dioxide change (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ paleo/ globalwarming/ temperature-change. html), U.S.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
[25] Brian Shmaefsky (2004). Favorite demonstrations for college science: an NSTA Press journals collection (http:/ / books. google. com/
books?id=L4jtv2mX0iQC& pg=PA57). NSTA Press. p. 57. ISBN 9780873552424. .
[26] Wood, R.W. (1909). "Note on the Theory of the Greenhouse" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ wood_rw. 1909. html).
Philosophical Magazine 17: 319–320. . "When exposed to sunlight the temperature rose gradually to 65 °C., the enclosure covered with the
salt plate keeping a little ahead of the other because it transmitted the longer waves from the Sun, which were stopped by the glass. In order to
eliminate this action the sunlight was first passed through a glass plate." "it is clear that the rock-salt plate is capable of transmitting practically
all of it, while the glass plate stops it entirely. This shows us that the loss of temperature of the ground by radiation is very small in
comparison to the loss by convection, in other words that we gain very little from the circumstance that the radiation is trapped.".
[27] Oort, Abraham H.; Peixoto, José Pinto (1992). Physics of climate. New York: American Institute of Physics. ISBN 0-88318-711-6. "...the
name water vapor-greenhouse effect is actually a misnomer since heating in the usual greenhouse is due to the reduction of convection"
[28] Schroeder, Daniel V. (2000). An introduction to thermal physics. San Francisco, California: Addison-Wesley. pp. 305–7.
ISBN 0-321-27779-1. "... this mechanism is called the greenhouse effect, even though most greenhouses depend primarily on a different
mechanism (namely, limiting convective cooling)."
[29] McKay, C.; Pollack, J.; Courtin, R. (1991). "The greenhouse and antigreenhouse effects on Titan". Science 253: 1118–21.
doi:10.1126/science.11538492. PMID 11538492.
[30] "Titan: Greenhouse and Anti-greenhouse :: Astrobiology Magazine - earth science - evolution distribution Origin of life universe - life
beyond :: Astrobiology is study of earth" (http:/ / www. astrobio. net/ news/ modules. php?op=modload& name=News& file=article&
sid=1762& mode=thread& order=0& thold=0). Astrobio.net. . Retrieved 2010-10-15.
[31] "Pluto Colder Than Expected" (http:/ / www. space. com/ scienceastronomy/ 060103_pluto_cold. html). SPACE.com. 2006-01-03. .
Retrieved 2010-10-15.
Greenhouse effect 85

[32] Kasting, James F. (1991). "Runaway and moist greenhouse atmospheres and the evolution of Earth and Venus." (http:/ / books. nap. edu/
openbook. php?record_id=1790& page=234). Planetary Sciences: American and Soviet Research/Proceedings from the U.S.-U.S.S.R.
Workshop on Planetary Sciences. Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems (CETS). pp. 234–245. . Retrieved 2009.
[33] Rasool, I.; De Bergh, C.; De Bergh, C. (Jun 1970). "The Runaway Greenhouse and the Accumulation of CO2 in the Venus Atmosphere"
(http:/ / pubs. giss. nasa. gov/ docs/ 1970/ 1970_Rasool_DeBergh. pdf). Nature 226 (5250): 1037. doi:10.1038/2261037a0. ISSN 0028-0836.
PMID 16057644. . Retrieved 02/25/2009.

Greenhouse gas
A greenhouse gas (sometimes
abbreviated GHG) is a gas in an
atmosphere that absorbs and emits
radiation within the thermal infrared
range. This process is the fundamental
cause of the greenhouse effect.[1] The
primary greenhouse gases in the
Earth's atmosphere are water vapor,
carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous
oxide, and ozone. In the Solar System,
the atmospheres of Venus, Mars, and
Titan also contain gases that cause
greenhouse effects. Greenhouse gases
greatly affect the temperature of the
Earth; without them, Earth's surface Simple diagram of greenhouse effect.
would be on average about 33 °C
(59 °F)[2] colder than at present.[3] [4] [5]

Since the beginning of the Industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has contributed to the increase in carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere from 280ppm to 390ppm.[6] [7] Unlike other pollutants, carbon dioxide emissions do not
result from inefficient combustion: CO2 is a product of ideal, stoichiometric combustion of carbon.[8] The emissions
of carbon are directly proportional to energy consumption.

Greenhouse effects in Earth's atmosphere


In order, the most abundant greenhouse gases in Earth's
atmosphere are:
• water vapor
• carbon dioxide
• methane
• nitrous oxide
• ozone
• chlorofluorocarbons
The contribution to the greenhouse effect by a gas is
affected by both the characteristics of the gas and its
abundance. For example, on a molecule-for-molecule

Modern global anthropogenic carbon emissions.


Greenhouse gas 86

basis methane is about eighty times stronger greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide,[9] but it is present in much smaller
concentrations so that its total contribution is smaller. When these gases are ranked by their contribution to the
greenhouse effect, the most important are:[10]

Gas Formula Contribution


(%)

Water vapor H2O 36 – 72 %

Carbon dioxide CO2 9 – 26 %

Methane CH4 4–9%

Ozone O3 3–7%

It is not possible to state that a certain gas causes an exact percentage of the greenhouse effect. This is because some
of the gases absorb and emit radiation at the same frequencies as others, so that the total greenhouse effect is not
simply the sum of the influence of each gas. The higher ends of the ranges quoted are for each gas alone; the lower
ends account for overlaps with the other gases.[10] [11] The major non-gas contributor to the Earth's greenhouse
effect, clouds, also absorb and emit infrared radiation and thus have an effect on radiative properties of the
greenhouse gases.[10] [11]
In addition to the main greenhouse gases listed above, other greenhouse gases include sulfur hexafluoride,
hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons (see IPCC list of greenhouse gases). Some greenhouse gases are not often
listed. For example, nitrogen trifluoride has a high global warming potential (GWP) but is only present in very small
quantities.[12]
Although contributing to many other physical and chemical reactions,
the major atmospheric constituents, nitrogen (N2), oxygen (O2), and
argon (Ar), are not greenhouse gases. This is because molecules
containing two atoms of the same element such as N2 and O2 and
monatomic molecules such as Ar have no net change in their dipole
moment when they vibrate and hence are almost totally unaffected by
infrared light. Although molecules containing two atoms of different
elements such as carbon monoxide (CO) or hydrogen chloride (HCl)
absorb IR, these molecules are short-lived in the atmosphere owing to
their reactivity and solubility. As a consequence they do not contribute
significantly to the greenhouse effect and are not often included when
discussing greenhouse gases.
Atmospheric absorption and scattering at
different electromagnetic wavelengths. The
Late 19th century scientists experimentally discovered that N2 and O2
largest absorption band of carbon dioxide is in the
do not absorb infrared radiation (called, at that time, "dark radiation") infrared.
while, at the contrary, water, as true vapour or condensed in the form
of microscopic droplets suspended in clouds, CO2 and other poly-atomic gaseous molecules do absorb infrared
radiation. It was recognized in the early 20th century that the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused the Earth's
overall temperature to be higher than it would be without them. During the late 20th century, a scientific consensus
has evolved that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are causing a substantial rise in
global temperatures and changes to other parts of the climate system, with consequences for the environment and
human health.[13]
Greenhouse gas 87

Natural and anthropogenic sources


Aside from purely human-produced synthetic halocarbons, most
greenhouse gases have both natural and human-caused sources. During
the pre-industrial Holocene, concentrations of existing gases were
roughly constant. In the industrial era, human activities have added
greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, mainly through the burning of
fossil fuels and clearing of forests.[14] [15]

The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report compiled by the IPCC (AR4)


noted that "changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
and aerosols, land cover and solar radiation alter the energy balance of 400,000 years of ice core data.
the climate system", and concluded that "increases in anthropogenic
greenhouse gas concentrations is very likely to have caused most of the
increases in global average temperatures since the mid-20th
century".[16] In AR4, "most of" is defined as more than 50%.

Top: Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide


levels as measured in the atmosphere and
reflected in ice cores. Bottom: The amount of net
carbon increase in the atmosphere, compared to
carbon emissions from burning fossil fuel.

Gas Preindustrial level Current level   Increase since 1750   Radiative forcing (W/m2)

Carbon dioxide 280 ppm 388 ppm 108 ppm 1.46

Methane 700 ppb 1745 ppb 1045 ppb 0.48

Nitrous oxide 270 ppb 314 ppb 44 ppb 0.15

CFC-12 0 533 ppt 533 ppt 0.17

Ice cores provide evidence for variation in greenhouse gas concentrations over the past 800,000 years. Both CO2 and
CH4 vary between glacial and interglacial phases, and concentrations of these gases correlate strongly with
temperature. Direct data does not exist for periods earlier than those represented in the ice core record, a record
which indicates CO2 mole fractions staying within a range of between 180ppm and 280ppm throughout the last
800,000 years, until the increase of the last 250 years. However, various proxies and modeling suggests larger
variations in past epochs; 500 million years ago CO2 levels were likely 10 times higher than now.[17] Indeed higher
CO2 concentrations are thought to have prevailed throughout most of the Phanerozoic eon, with concentrations four
Greenhouse gas 88

to six times current concentrations during the Mesozoic era, and ten to fifteen times current concentrations during the
early Palaeozoic era until the middle of the Devonian period, about 400 Ma.[18] [19] [20] The spread of land plants is
thought to have reduced CO2 concentrations during the late Devonian, and plant activities as both sources and sinks
of CO2 have since been important in providing stabilising feedbacks.[21] Earlier still, a 200-million year period of
intermittent, widespread glaciation extending close to the equator (Snowball Earth) appears to have been ended
suddenly, about 550 Ma, by a colossal volcanic outgassing which raised the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere
abruptly to 12%, about 350 times modern levels, causing extreme greenhouse conditions and carbonate deposition as
limestone at the rate of about 1 mm per day.[22] This episode marked the close of the Precambrian eon, and was
succeeded by the generally warmer conditions of the Phanerozoic, during which multicellular animal and plant life
evolved. No volcanic carbon dioxide emission of comparable scale has occurred since. In the modern era, emissions
to the atmosphere from volcanoes are only about 1% of emissions from human sources.[22] [23]

Anthropogenic greenhouse gases


Since about 1750 human activity has
increased the concentration of carbon
dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
Measured atmospheric concentrations
of carbon dioxide are currently 100
ppm higher than pre-industrial
levels.[24] Natural sources of carbon
dioxide are more than 20 times greater
than sources due to human activity,[25]
but over periods longer than a few
years natural sources are closely
balanced by natural sinks, mainly
photosynthesis of carbon compounds
by plants and marine plankton. As a
result of this balance, the atmospheric
mole fraction of carbon dioxide
remained between 260 and 280 parts
per million for the 10,000 years
between the end of the last glacial
Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions broken down into 8 different sectors for
maximum and the start of the industrial the year 2000.
era.[26]

It is likely that anthropogenic warming, such as that due to elevated greenhouse gas levels, has had a discernible
influence on many physical and biological systems. Warming is projected to affect various issues such as freshwater
resources, industry, food and health.[27]
The main sources of greenhouse gases due to human activity are:
Greenhouse gas 89

• burning of fossil fuels and


deforestation leading to higher
carbon dioxide concentrations in the
air. Land use change (mainly
deforestation in the tropics) account
for up to one third of total
anthropogenic CO2 emissions.[26]
• livestock enteric fermentation and
manure management,[28] paddy rice
farming, land use and wetland
changes, pipeline losses, and Per capita anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by country for the year 2000
covered vented landfill emissions including land-use change.
leading to higher methane
atmospheric concentrations. Many of the newer style fully vented septic systems that enhance and target the
fermentation process also are sources of atmospheric methane.
• use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in refrigeration systems, and use of CFCs and halons in fire suppression
systems and manufacturing processes.
• agricultural activities, including the use of fertilizers, that lead to higher nitrous oxide (N2O) concentrations.
The seven sources of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion are (with percentage contributions for 2000–2004):[29]

Seven main fossil fuel Contribution


combustion sources (%)

Liquid fuels (e.g., gasoline, fuel oil) 36 %

Solid fuels (e.g., coal) 35 %

Gaseous fuels (e.g., natural gas) 20 %

Cement production 3%

Flaring gas industrially and at wells <1%

Non-fuel hydrocarbons <1%

"International bunker fuels" of 4%


transport
not included in national inventories

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ranks the major greenhouse gas contributing end-user sectors in
the following order: industrial, transportation, residential, commercial and agricultural.[30] Major sources of an
individual's greenhouse gas include home heating and cooling, electricity consumption, and transportation.
Corresponding conservation measures are improving home building insulation, installing geothermal heat pumps and
compact fluorescent lamps, and choosing energy-efficient vehicles.
Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and three groups of fluorinated gases (sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCs)
are the major greenhouse gases and the subject of the Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in 2005.[31]
Although CFCs are greenhouse gases, they are regulated by the Montreal Protocol, which was motivated by CFCs'
contribution to ozone depletion rather than by their contribution to global warming. Note that ozone depletion has
only a minor role in greenhouse warming though the two processes often are confused in the media.
On December 7, 2009, the US Environmental Protection Agency released its final findings on greenhouse gases,
declaring that "greenhouse gases (GHGs) threaten the public health and welfare of the American people". The
finding applied to the same "six key well-mixed greenhouse gases" named in the Kyoto Protocol: carbon dioxide,
methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride.[32] [33]
Greenhouse gas 90

Role of water vapor


Water vapor accounts for the largest
percentage of the greenhouse effect,
between 36% and 66% for clear sky
conditions and between 66% and 85%
when including clouds.[11] Water vapor
concentrations fluctuate regionally, but
human activity does not significantly
affect water vapor concentrations
except at local scales, such as near
irrigated fields. The atmospheric
concentration of vapor is highly
variable, from less than 0.01% in Increasing water vapor in the stratosphere at Boulder, Colorado.
extremely cold regions up to 2% in
warm, humid regions.[34]

The average residence time of a water molecule in the atmosphere is only about nine days, compared to years or
centuries for other greenhouse gases such as CH4 and CO2. Thus, water vapor responds to and amplifies effects of
the other greenhouse gases. The Clausius-Clapeyron relation establishes that air can hold more water vapor per unit
volume when it warms. This and other basic principles indicate that warming associated with increased
concentrations of the other greenhouse gases also will increase the concentration of water vapor. Because water
vapor is a greenhouse gas this results in further warming, a "positive feedback" that amplifies the original warming.
This positive feedback does not result in runaway global warming because it is offset by other processes which
stabilize average global temperatures.[35]

Greenhouse gas emissions


The two primary sources of CO2 emissions are from burning coal used
for electricity generation and petroleum used for motor transport.
Measurements from Antarctic ice cores show that before industrial
emissions started atmospheric CO2 mole fractions were about 280 parts
per million (ppm), and stayed between 260 and 280 during the
preceding ten thousand years.[36] Carbon dioxide mole fractions in the
atmosphere have gone up by approximately 35 percent since the 1900s,
rising from 280 parts per million by volume to 387 parts per million in
2009. One study using evidence from stomata of fossilized leaves
suggests greater variability, with carbon dioxide mole fractions above
300 ppm during the period seven to ten thousand years ago,[37] though
Recent year-to-year increase of atmospheric CO2.

others have argued that these findings more likely reflect calibration or
contamination problems rather than actual CO2 variability.[38] [39] Because of the way air is trapped in ice (pores in
the ice close off slowly to form bubbles deep within the firn) and the time period represented in each ice sample
analyzed, these figures represent averages of atmospheric concentrations of up to a few centuries rather than annual
or decadal levels.

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the concentrations of most of the greenhouse gases have increased.
For example, the mole fraction of carbon dioxide has increased by about 36% to 380 ppm, or 100 ppm over modern
pre-industrial levels. The first 50 ppm increase took place in about 200 years, from the start of the Industrial
Greenhouse gas 91

Revolution to around 1973; however the next 50 ppm increase took place in about 33 years, from 1973 to 2006.[40]
Recent data also shows that the concentration is increasing at a higher rate. In the 1960s, the average annual increase
was only 37% of what it was in 2000 through 2007.[41]
The other greenhouse gases produced from human activity show similar increases in both amount and rate of
increase. Many observations are available online in a variety of Atmospheric Chemistry Observational Databases.

Relevant to radiative forcing


Gas Current (1998) Increase Increase Radiative
Amount by volume (absolute, ppm) (relative, %) forcing
over pre-industrial (1750) over pre-industrial (1750) (W/m2)

Carbon dioxide 365 ppm 87 ppm 31 % 1.46


(383 ppm, 2007.01) (105 ppm, 2007.01) (38 %, 2007.01) (~1.53, 2007.01)

Methane 1745 ppb 1045 ppb 150 % 0.48

Nitrous oxide 314 ppb 44 ppb 16 % 0.15

Relevant to both radiative forcing and ozone depletion; all of the following have no natural
sources and hence zero amounts pre-industrial
Gas Current (1998) Radiative
Amount by volume forcing
(W/m2)

CFC-11 268 ppt 0.07

CFC-12 533 ppt 0.17

CFC-113 84 ppt 0.03

Carbon tetrachloride 102 ppt 0.01

HCFC-22 69 ppt 0.03

(Source: IPCC radiative forcing report 1994 updated (to 1998) by IPCC TAR table 6.1[42] [43] ).
Greenhouse gas 92

Regional and national attribution of emissions


There are several different ways of
measuring GHG emissions (see World
Bank (2010, p. 362) for a table of
national emissions data).[44]
Some variables that have been
reported[45] include:
• Definition of measurement
boundaries. Emissions can be
attributed geographically, to the
area where they were emitted (the
territory principle) or by the activity
principle to the territory that caused
the emissions to be produced. These
two principles would result in Major greenhouse gas trends.
different totals when measuring for
example the importation of electricity from one country to another or the emissions at an international airport.
• The time horizon of different GHGs. Contribution of a given GHG is reported as a CO2 equivalent; the
calculation to determine this takes into account how long that gas remains in the atmosphere. This is not always
known accurately and calculations must be regularly updated to take into account new information.
• What sectors are included in the calculation (e.g. energy industries, industrical processes, agriculture etc.). There
is often a conflict between transparency and availability of data.
• The measurement protocol itself. This may be via direct measurement or estimation; the four main methods are
the emission factor-based method, the mass balance method, the predictive emissions monitoring system and the
continuing emissions monitoring systems. The methods differ in accuracy, but also in cost and usability.
The different measures are sometimes used by different countries in asserting various policy/ethical positions to do
with climate change (Banuri et al., 1996, p. 94).[46] This use of different measures leads to a lack of comparability,
which is problematic when monitoring progress towards targets. There are arguments for the adoption of a common
measurement tool, or at least the development of communication between different tools.[45]
Emissions may be measured over long time periods. This measurement type is called historical or cumulative
emissions. Cumulative emissions give some indication of who is responsible for the build-up in the atmospheric
concentration of GHGs (IEA, 2007, p. 199).[47]
Emissions may also be measured across shorter time periods. Emissions changes may, for example, be measured
against a base year of 1990. 1990 was used in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) as the base year for emissions, and is also used in the Kyoto Protocol (some gases are also measured
from the year 1995) (Grubb, 2003, pp. 146, 149).[48] A country's emissions may also be reported as a proportion of
global emissions for a particular year.
Another measurement is of per capita emissions. This divides a country's total annual emissions by its mid-year
population (World Bank, 2010, p. 370). Per capita emissions may be based on historical or annual emissions (Banuri
et al., 1996, pp. 106–107).
Greenhouse gas 93

Greenhouse gas intensity and land-use change

The figure opposite is based on data


from the World Resources Institute,
and shows a measurement of GHG
emissions for the year 2000 according
to greenhouse gas intensity and
land-use change. Herzog et al. (2006,
p. 3) defined greenhouse gas intensity
as GHG emissions divided by
economic output.[49] GHG intensities
are subject to uncertainty over whether
they are calculated using market
Greenhouse gas intensity in 2000 including land-use change.
exchange rates (MER) or purchasing
power parity (PPP) (Banuri et al.,
1996, p. 96).[46] Calculations based on MER suggest large differences in intensities between developed and
developing countries, whereas calculations based on PPP show smaller differences.

Land-use change, e.g., the clearing of forests for agricultural use, can affect the concentration of GHGs in the
atmosphere by altering how much carbon flows out of the atmosphere into carbon sinks.[50] Accounting for land-use
change can be understood as an attempt to measure “net” emissions, i.e., gross emissions from all GHG sources
minus the removal of emissions from the atmosphere by carbon sinks (Banuri et al., 1996, pp. 92–93).
There are substantial uncertainties in the measurement of net carbon emissions.[51] Additionally, there is controversy
over how carbon sinks should be allocated between different regions and over time (Banuri et al., 1996, p. 93). For
instance, concentrating on more recent changes in carbon sinks is likely to favour those regions that have deforested
earlier, e.g., Europe.

Cumulative and historical emissions

Top-5 historic CO2 contributors by region over the years 1800 to 1988 (in %)
Region Industrial Total
CO2 CO2

OECD North America 33.2 29.7

OECD Europe 26.1 16.6

Former USSR 14.1 12.5

China 5.5 6.0

Eastern Europe 5.5 4.8

The table above is based on Banuri et al. (1996, p. 94).[46] Overall, developed countries accounted for 83.8% of
industrial CO2 emissions over this time period, and 67.8% of total CO2 emissions. Developing countries accounted
for industrial CO2 emissions of 16.2% over this time period, and 32.2% of total CO2 emissions. The estimate of total
CO2 emissions includes biotic carbon emissions, mainly from deforestation. Banuri et al. (1996, p. 94) calculated per
capita cumulative emissions based on then-current population. The ratio in per capita emissions between
industrialized countires and developing countries was estimated to be more than 10 to 1.
Including biotic emissions brings about the same controversy mentioned earlier regarding carbon sinks and land-use
change (Banuri et al., 1996, pp. 93–94). The actual calculation of net emissions is very complex, and is affected by
how carbon sinks are allocated between regions (an equity consideration), and the dynamics of the climate system.
Greenhouse gas 94

The International Energy Agency (IEA, 2007, p. 201) compared cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions for
several countries and regions.[47] Over the time period 1900-2005, the US accounted for 30% of total cumulative
emissions; the EU, 23%; China, 8%; Japan, 4%; and India, 2%. The rest of the world accounted for 33% of global,
cumulative, energy-related CO2 emissions.

Changes since a particular base year


In total, Annex I Parties managed a cut of 3.3% in GHG emissions between 1990 and 2004 (UNFCCC, 2007,
p. 11).[52] Annex I Parties are those countries listed in Annex I of the UNFCCC, and are the industrialized countries.
For non-Annex I Parties, emissions in several large developing countries and fast growing economies (China, India,
Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, and Iran) GHG emissions have increased rapidly over this period (PBL, 2009).[53]
The sharp acceleration in CO2 emissions since 2000 to more than a 3% increase per year (more than 2 ppm per year)
from 1.1% per year during the 1990s is attributable to the lapse of formerly declining trends in carbon intensity of
both developing and developed nations. China was responsible for most of global growth in emissions during this
period. Localised plummeting emissions associated with the collapse of the Soviet Union have been followed by
slow emissions growth in this region due to more efficient energy use, made necessary by the increasing proportion
of it that is exported.[29] In comparison, methane has not increased appreciably, and N2O by 0.25% y−1.

Annual and per capita emissions

At the present time, total annual


emissions of GHGs are rising (Rogner
et al., 2007).[54] Between the period
1970 to 2004, emissions increased at
an average rate of 1.6% per year, with
CO2 emissions from the use of fossil
fuels growing at a rate of 1.9% per
year.

Today, the stock of carbon in the


atmosphere increases by more than 3
million tonnes per annum (0.04%) Per capita responsibility for current anthropogenic atmospheric CO2.
compared with the existing stock. This
increase is the result of human activities by burning fossil fuels, deforestation and forest degradation in tropical and
boreal regions.[55]

Per capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in developing
countries (Grubb, 2003, p. 144).[48] Due to China's fast economic development, its per capita emissions are quickly
approaching the levels of those in the Annex I group of the Kyoto Protocol (PBL, 2009).[56] Other countries with fast
growing emissions are South Korea, Iran, and Australia. On the other hand, per capita emissions of the EU-15 and
the USA are gradually decreasing over time. Emissions in Russia and the Ukraine have decreased fastest since 1990
due to economic restructuring in these countries (Carbon Trust, 2009, p. 24).[57]
Energy statistics for fast growing economies are less accurate than those for the industrialized countries. For China's
annual emissions in 2008, PBL (2008) estimated an uncertainty range of about 10%.
Greenhouse gas 95

Top emitters
In 2005, the world's top-20 emitters comprised 80% of total GHG emissions (PBL, 2010. See notes for the following
table).[58] Tabulated below are the top-5 emitters for the year 2005 (MNP, 2007).[59] The second column is the
country's or region's share of the global total of annual emissions. The third column is the country's or region's
average annual per capita emissions, in tonnes of GHG per head of population:

Top-5 emitters for the year 2005


Country or region % of global total Tonnes of
annual emissions GHG
per capita

16 % 24.1
United Statesa

6% 12.9
Indonesiac

11 % 10.6
European Union-27a

17 % 5.8
Chinab

India 5% 2.1

Table footnotes:

• These values are for the GHG emissions from fossil fuel use and cement production. Calculations are for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane
(CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and gases containing fluorine (the F-gases HFCs, PFCs and SF6).
• These estimates are subject to large uncertainties regarding CO2 emissions from deforestation; and the per country emissions of other GHGs
(e.g., methane). There are also other large uncertainties which mean that small differences between countries are not significant. CO2
emissions from the decay of remaining biomass after biomass burning/deforestation are not included.
a
• Industrialised countries: official country data reported to UNFCCC.
b
• Excluding underground fires.
c
• Including an estimate of 2000 million tonnes CO2 from peat fires and decomposition of peat soils after draining. However, the uncertainty
range is very large.

Embedded emissions
One way of attributing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is to measure the embedded emissions (also referred to as
"embodied emissions") of goods that are being consumed. Emissions are usually measured according to production,
rather than consumption (Helm et al., 2007, p. 3).[60] Under a production-based accounting of emissions, embedded
emissions on imported goods are attributed to the exporting, rather than the importing, country. Under a
consumption-based accounting of emissions, embedded emissions on imported goods are attributed to the importing
country, rather than the exporting, country.
Davis and Caldeira (2010, p. 4) found that a substantial proportion of CO2 emissions are traded internationally.[61]
The net effect of trade was to export emissions from China and other emerging markets to consumers in the US,
Japan, and Western Europe. Based on annual emissions data from the year 2004, and on a per-capita consumption
basis, the top-5 emitting countries were found to be (in tCO2 per person, per year): Luxembourg (34.7), the US
(22.0), Singapore (20.2), Australia (16.7), and Canada (16.6) (Davis and Caldeira, 2010, p. 5).
Greenhouse gas 96

Effect of policy
Rogner et al. (2007) assessed the effectiveness of policies to reduce emissions (mitigation of climate change).[54]
They concluded that mitigation policies undertaken by UNFCCC Parties were inadequate to reverse the trend of
increasing GHG emissions. The impacts of population growth, economic development, technological investment,
and consumption had overwhelmed improvements in energy intensities and efforts to decarbonize (energy intensity
is a country's total primary energy supply (TPES) per unit of GDP (Rogner et al., 2007).[62] TPES is a measure of
commercial energy consumption (World Bank, 2010, p. 371)).[44]

Projections
Based on then-current energy policies, Rogner et al. (2007) projected that energy-related CO2 emissions in 2030
would be 40-110% higher than in 2000.[54] Two-thirds of this increase was projected to come from non-Annex I
countries. Per capita emissions in Annex I countries were still projected to remain substantially higher than per
capita emissions in non-Annex I countries. Projections consistently showed a 25-90% increase in the Kyoto gases
(carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride) compared to 2000.
IEA (2007, p. 199) estimated future cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions for several countries.[47] Their
reference scenario projected cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions between the years 1900 and 2030. In this
scenario, China’s share of cumulative emissions rises to 16%, approaching that of the United States (25%) and the
European Union (18%). India’s cumulative emissions (4%) approach those of Japan (4%).

Relative CO2 emission from various fuels


One liter of gasoline, when used as a fuel, produces about 2.32 kg (19.4 lb/US gallon) of carbon dioxide, a
greenhouse gas.[63] [64]

Mass of carbon dioxide emitted per quantity of energy for various fuels[65]
Fuel name CO2 CO2
emitted emitted
(lbs/106 Btu) (g/106 J)

Natural gas 117 50.30

Liquefied petroleum gas 139 59.76

Propane 139 59.76

Aviation gasoline 153 65.78

Automobile gasoline 156 67.07

Kerosene 159 68.36

Fuel oil 161 69.22

Tires/tire derived fuel 189 81.26

Wood and wood waste 195 83.83

Coal (bituminous) 205 88.13

Coal (subbituminous) 213 91.57

Coal (lignite) 215 92.43

Petroleum coke 225 96.73

Coal (anthracite) 227 97.59


Greenhouse gas 97

Removal from the atmosphere and global warming potential

Natural processes
Greenhouse gases can be removed from the atmosphere by various processes, as a consequence of:
• a physical change (condensation and precipitation remove water vapor from the atmosphere).
• a chemical reactions within the atmosphere. For example, methane is oxidized by reaction with naturally
occurring hydroxyl radical, OH· and degraded to CO2 and water vapor (CO2 from the oxidation of methane is not
included in the methane Global warming potential). Other chemical reactions include solution and solid phase
chemistry occurring in atmospheric aerosols.
• a physical exchange between the atmosphere and the other compartments of the planet. An example is the mixing
of atmospheric gases into the oceans.
• a chemical change at the interface between the atmosphere and the other compartments of the planet. This is the
case for CO2, which is reduced by photosynthesis of plants, and which, after dissolving in the oceans, reacts to
form carbonic acid and bicarbonate and carbonate ions (see ocean acidification).
• a photochemical change. Halocarbons are dissociated by UV light releasing Cl· and F· as free radicals in the
stratosphere with harmful effects on ozone (halocarbons are generally too stable to disappear by chemical reaction
in the atmosphere).

Atmospheric lifetime
Aside from water vapor, which has a residence time of about nine days,[66] major greenhouse gases are well-mixed,
and take many years to leave the atmosphere.[67] Although it is not easy to know with precision how long it takes
greenhouse gases to leave the atmosphere, there are estimates for the principal greenhouse gases. Jacob (1999)[68]
defines the lifetime of an atmospheric species X in a one-box model as the average time that a molecule of X
remains in the box. Mathematically can be defined as the ratio of the mass (in kg) of X in the box to its
removal rate, which is the sum of the flow of X out of the box ( ), chemical loss of X ( ), and deposition of
[68]
X( ) (all in kg/sec):

The atmospheric lifetime of a species therefore measures the time required to restore equilibrium following an
increase in its concentration in the atmosphere. Individual atoms or molecules may be lost or deposited to sinks such
as the soil, the oceans and other waters, or vegetation and other biological systems, reducing the excess to
background concentrations. The average time taken to achieve this is the mean lifetime. The atmospheric lifetime of
CO2 is often incorrectly stated to be only a few years because that is the average time for any CO2 molecule to stay
in the atmosphere before being removed by mixing into the ocean, photosynthesis, or other processes. However, this
ignores the balancing fluxes of CO2 into the atmosphere from the other reservoirs. It is the net concentration changes
of the various greenhouse gases by all sources and sinks that determines atmospheric lifetime, not just the removal
processes.

Global warming potential


The global warming potential (GWP) depends on both the efficiency of the molecule as a greenhouse gas and its
atmospheric lifetime. GWP is measured relative to the same mass of CO2 and evaluated for a specific timescale.
Thus, if a gas has a high radiative forcing but also a short lifetime, it will have a large GWP on a 20 year scale but a
small one on a 100 year scale. Conversely, if a molecule has a longer atmospheric lifetime than CO2 its GWP will
increase with the timescale considered.
Carbon dioxide has a variable atmospheric lifetime, and cannot be specified precisely.[69] Recent work indicates that
recovery from a large input of atmospheric CO2 from burning fossil fuels will result in an effective lifetime of tens of
thousands of years.[70] [71] Carbon dioxide is defined to have a GWP of 1 over all time periods.
Greenhouse gas 98

Methane has an atmospheric lifetime of 12 ± 3 years and a GWP of 72 over 20 years, 25 over 100 years and 7.6 over
500 years. The decrease in GWP at longer times is because methane is degraded to water and CO2 through chemical
reactions in the atmosphere.
Examples of the atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 for several greenhouse gases are given in the
following table:[72]

Atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 at different time horizon for various
greenhouse gases.
Gas name Chemical Lifetime Global warming potential (GWP) for given time horizon
formula (years)
20-yr 100-yr 500-yr

Carbon dioxide CO2 See above 1 1 1

Methane CH4 12 72 25 7.6

Nitrous oxide N2O 114 289 298 153

CFC-12 CCl2F2 100 11 000 10 900 5 200

HCFC-22 CHClF2 12 5 160 1 810 549

Tetrafluoromethane CF4 50 000 5 210 7 390 11 200

Hexafluoroethane C2F6 10 000 8 630 12 200 18 200

Sulphur hexafluoride SF6 3 200 16 300 22 800 32 600

Nitrogen trifluoride NF3 740 12 300 17 200 20 700

The use of CFC-12 (except some essential uses) has been phased out due to its ozone depleting properties.[73] The
phasing-out of less active HCFC-compounds will be completed in 2030.[74]

Airborne fraction
Airborne fraction (AF) is the proportion of an emission (e.g. CO2) remaining in the atmosphere after a specified
time. Canadell (2007)[75] define the annual AF as the ratio of the atmospheric CO2 increase in a given year to that
year’s total emissions, and calculate that of the average 9.1 PgC y−1 of total anthropogenic emissions from 2000 to
2006, the AF was 0.45. For CO2 the AF over the last 50 years (1956–2006) has been increasing at 0.25 ±
0.21%/year.[75]

Negative emissions
There exists a number of technologies which produce negative emissions of greenhouse gases. Most widely analysed
are those which remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, either to geologic formations such as bio-energy with
carbon capture and storage[76] [77] [78] and carbon dioxide air capture,[78] or to the soil as in the case with biochar.[78]
It has been pointed out by the IPCC, that many long-term climate scenario models require large scale manmade
negative emissions in order to avoid serious climate change.[79]
Greenhouse gas 99

Related effects
Carbon monoxide has an indirect radiative effect by
elevating concentrations of methane and tropospheric
ozone through scavenging of atmospheric constituents
(e.g., the hydroxyl radical, OH) that would otherwise
destroy them. Carbon monoxide is created when
carbon-containing fuels are burned incompletely.
Through natural processes in the atmosphere, it is
eventually oxidized to carbon dioxide. Carbon monoxide
has an atmospheric lifetime of only a few months[80] and
as a consequence is spatially more variable than
longer-lived gases.

Another potentially important indirect effect comes from


methane, which in addition to its direct radiative impact
also contributes to ozone formation. Shindell et al.
(2005)[81] argue that the contribution to climate change
from methane is at least double previous estimates as a
result of this effect.[82]
MOPITT 2000 global carbon monoxide.

Notes
[1] "IPCC AR4 SYR Appendix Glossary" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ syr/ ar4_syr_appendix. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 14
December 2008.
[2] Note that the greenhouse effect produces a temperature increase of about 33 °C (59 °F) with respect to black body predictions and not a
surface temperature of 33 °C (91 °F) which is 32 °F higher. The average surface temperature is about 14 °C (57 °F).
[3] Karl TR, Trenberth KE (2003). "Modern Global Climate Change" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 302/ 5651/ 1719).
Science 302 (5651): 1719–23. doi:10.1126/science.1090228. PMID 14657489. .
[4] Le Treut H, Somerville R, Cubasch U, Ding Y, Mauritzen C, Mokssit A, Peterson T and Prather M (2007) (PDF). Historical Overview of
Climate Change Science In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M and
Miller HL, editors) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter1. pdf). Cambridge University Press. . Retrieved
14 December 2008.
[5] "NASA Science Mission Directorate article on the water cycle" (http:/ / nasascience. nasa. gov/ earth-science/ oceanography/
ocean-earth-system/ ocean-water-cycle). Nasascience.nasa.gov. . Retrieved 2010-10-16.
[6] Frequently Asked Global Change Questions (http:/ / cdiac. ornl. gov/ pns/ faq. html), Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
[7] http:/ / www. esrl. noaa. gov/ gmd/ ccgg/ trends/
[8] [Lindeburgh, Michael R., (2006). Mechanical Engineering Reference Manual for the PE Exam. Professional Publications, Inc., Belmont, CA.
ISBN 978-1-59126-049-3.]
[9] Houghton, John (4 May 2005). "Global warming" (http:/ / stacks. iop. org/ RoPP/ 68/ 1343). Reports on Progress in Physics (Institute of
Physics) 68: 1362. doi:10.1088/0034-4885/68/6/R02. .
[10] Kiehl, J. T.; Kevin E. Trenberth (1997). "Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20060330013311/
http:/ / www. atmo. arizona. edu/ students/ courselinks/ spring04/ atmo451b/ pdf/ RadiationBudget. pdf) (PDF). Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society 78 (2): 197–208. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0197:EAGMEB>2.0.CO;2. Archived from the original (http:/ /
www. atmo. arizona. edu/ students/ courselinks/ spring04/ atmo451b/ pdf/ RadiationBudget. pdf) on 30 March 2006. . Retrieved 1 May 2006.
[11] "Water vapour: feedback or forcing?" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php?p=142). RealClimate. 6 April 2005. . Retrieved 1 May
2006.
[12] Prather, Michael J.; J Hsu (2008). "NF3, the greenhouse gas missing from Kyoto". Geophysical Research Letters 35: L12810.
Bibcode 2008GeoRL..3512810P. doi:10.1029/2008GL034542.
[13] Opposing Viewpoints Resource Center. Detroit: Thomson Gale, 2005. From Opposing Viewpoints Resource Center.
[14] "Chapter 1 Historical Overview of Climate Change Science" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter1.
pdf) (PDF). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 5 February 2007. . Retrieved 25 April 2008.
Greenhouse gas 100

[15] "Chapter 3, IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, 2000" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ Climate/ ipcc/ emission/ 049. htm). Grida.no. .
Retrieved 2010-10-16.
[16] "AR4 SYR SPM page 5" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ syr/ ar4_syr_spm. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-10-16.
[17] Image:Phanerozoic Carbon Dioxide.png
[18] Berner, Robert A. (1994). "GEOCARB II: a revised model of atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic time" (http:/ / earth. geology. yale. edu/
~ajs/ 1994/ 01. 1994. 02Berner. pdf). American Journal of Science 294: 56–91. doi:10.2475/ajs.294.1.56. ISSN 0002-9599. .
[19] Royer, DL; RA Berner and DJ Beerling (2001). "Phanerozoic atmospheric CO2 change: evaluating geochemical and paleobiological
approaches". Earth-Science Reviews 54: 349–92. Bibcode 2001ESRv...54..349R. doi:10.1016/S0012-8252(00)00042-8.
[20] Berner, Robert A.; Kothavala, Zavareth (2001). "GEOCARB III: a revised model of atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic time" (http:/ / www.
geology. yale. edu/ ~ajs/ 2001/ Feb/ qn020100182. pdf). American Journal of Science 301 (2): 182–204. doi:10.2475/ajs.301.2.182. .
[21] Beerling, DJ; Berner, RA (2005). "Feedbacks and the co-evolution of plants and atmospheric CO2". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 102 (5):
1302–5. doi:10.1073/pnas.0408724102. PMC 547859. PMID 15668402.
[22] Hoffmann, PF; AJ Kaufman, GP Halverson, DP Schrag (1998). "A neoproterozoic snowball earth" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/
content/ full/ 281/ 5381/ 1342). Science 281 (5381): 1342–6. doi:10.1126/science.281.5381.1342. PMID 9721097. .
[23] Gerlach, TM (1991). "Present-day CO2 emissions from volcanoes". Transactions of the American Geophysical Union 72: 249–55.
Bibcode 1991EOSTr..72..249.. doi:10.1029/90EO10192.
[24] "Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis: figure 6-6" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig6-6. htm). .
Retrieved 1 May 2006.
[25] "The present carbon cycle - Climate Change" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ vital/ 13. htm). Grida.no. . Retrieved 2010-10-16.
[26] IPCC; Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.) (2007). [PDF 7.83 MB
"Chapter 7. Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry"]. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88009-1. PDF 7.83 MB. Retrieved 13 May 2008.
[27] AR4 WG2 SPM (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg2/ ar4-wg2-spm. pdf) pp. 9,11
[28] H. Steinfeld, P. Gerber, T. Wassenaar, V. Castel, M. Rosales, C. de Haan (2006) Livestock’s long shadow. Environmental issues and
options. (http:/ / www. fao. org/ docrep/ 010/ a0701e/ a0701e00. htm) FAO Livestock, Environment and Development (LEAD) Initiative.
[29] Raupach, M.R. et al. (2007). "Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ reprint/
0700609104v1. pdf). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 104 (24): 10288–93. doi:10.1073/pnas.0700609104. PMC 1876160. PMID 17519334. .
[30] "U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory - U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports|Climate Change - Greenhouse Gas Emissions|U.S. EPA" (http:/ /
epa. gov/ climatechange/ emissions/ usinventoryreport. html). Epa.gov. 2006-06-28. . Retrieved 2010-10-16.
[31] Lerner & K. Lee Lerner, Brenda Wilmoth (2006). "Environmental issues: essential primary sources." (http:/ / catalog. loc. gov/ cgi-bin/
Pwebrecon. cgi?v3=1& DB=local& CMD=010a+ 2006000857& CNT=10+ records+ per+ page). Thomson Gale. . Retrieved 11 September
2006.
[32] United States Environmental Protection Agency (7 December 2009). "EPA: Greenhouse Gases Threaten Public Health and the Environment
/ Science overwhelmingly shows greenhouse gas concentrations at unprecedented levels due to human activity" (http:/ / yosemite. epa. gov/
opa/ admpress. nsf/ d0cf6618525a9efb85257359003fb69d/ 08d11a451131bca585257685005bf252!OpenDocument). Press release. . Retrieved
10 December 2009.
[33] "Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under the Clean Air Act" (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ climatechange/
endangerment. html). Climate Change - Regulatory Initiatives. United States Environmental Protection Agency. 7 December 2009. . Retrieved
10 December 2009.
[34] Evans, Kimberly Masters (2005). "The greenhouse effect and climate change". The environment: a revolution in attitudes. Detroit: Thomson
Gale. ISBN 0-7876-9082-1.
[35] doi: 10.1146/annurev.energy.25.1.441
This citation will be automatically completed in the next few minutes. You can jump the queue or expand by hand (http:/ / en. wikipedia. org/
wiki/ Template:cite_doi/ _10. 1146. 2fannurev. energy. 25. 1. 441?preload=Template:Cite_doi/ preload& editintro=Template:Cite_doi/
editintro& action=edit)
[36] Flückiger, Jacqueline (2002). "High-resolution Holocene N2O ice core record and its relationship with CH4 and CO2". Global
Biogeochemical Cycles 16: 1010. Bibcode 2002GBioC..16a..10F. doi:10.1029/2001GB001417.
[37] Friederike Wagner, Bent Aaby and Henk Visscher (2002). "Rapid atmospheric CO2 changes associated with the 8,200-years-B.P. cooling
event". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 99 (19): 12011–4. doi:10.1073/pnas.182420699. PMC 129389. PMID 12202744.
[38] Andreas Indermühle, Bernhard Stauffer, Thomas F. Stocker (1999). "Early Holocene Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations". Science 286
(5446): 1815. doi:10.1126/science.286.5446.1815a. "Early Holocene Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/
content/ full/ 286/ 5446/ 1815a). Science. . Retrieved 26 May 2005.
[39] H.J. Smith, M Wahlen and D. Mastroianni (1997). "The CO2 concentration of air trapped in GISP2 ice from the Last Glacial
Maximum-Holocene transition". Geophysical Research Letters 24 (1): 1–4. Bibcode 1997GeoRL..24....1S. doi:10.1029/96GL03700.
[40] "Monthly Average Carbon Dioxide Concentration, Mauna Loa Observatory" (http:/ / cdiac. ornl. gov/ trends/ co2/ graphics/
mlo145e_thrudc04. pdf) (PDF). Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http:/ / cdiac. ornl. gov/ ). 2005. . Retrieved 14 December 2008.
[41] Dr. Pieter Tans (3 May 2008) "Annual CO2 mole fraction increase (ppm)" for 1959–2007 (ftp:/ / ftp. cmdl. noaa. gov/ ccg/ co2/ trends/
co2_gr_mlo. txt) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division (
Greenhouse gas 101

additional details (http:/ / www. esrl. noaa. gov/ gmd/ ccgg/ trends/ ); see also K.A. Masarie, P.P. Tans (1995). "Extension and integration of
atmospheric carbon dioxide data into a globally consistent measurement record". J. Geophys. Research 100: 11593–610.
Bibcode 1995JGR...10011593M. doi:10.1029/95JD00859.
[42] "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 221. htm). Grida.no. . Retrieved 2010-10-16.
[43] "Current Greenhouse Gas Concentrations" (http:/ / cdiac. esd. ornl. gov/ pns/ current_ghg. html). Cdiac.esd.ornl.gov. . Retrieved
2010-10-16.
[44] World Bank (2010). World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change (http:/ / go. worldbank. org/ BKLQ9DSDU0). The
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433.
doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-7987-5. ISBN 9780821379875. . Retrieved 2010-04-06.
[45] Bader, N. and R. Bleichwitz (2009) “Measuring Urban Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The Challenge of Comparability”. S.A.P.I.EN.S. 2 (3)
(http:/ / sapiens. revues. org/ index854. html)
[46] Banuri, T. et al. (1996) (PDF). Equity and Social Considerations. In: Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate
Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (J.P. Bruce
et al. Eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ ipccreports/ sar/ wg_III/ ipcc_sar_wg_III_full_report. pdf). This version: Printed by Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. PDF version: IPCC website. doi:10.2277/0521568544. ISBN 9780521568548. .
[47] IEA (2007). World Energy Outlook 2007 Edition- China and India Insights (http:/ / www. iea. org/ publications/ free_new_Desc.
asp?PUBS_ID=1927). International Energy Agency (IEA), Head of Communication and Information Office, 9 rue de la Fédération, 75739
Paris Cedex 15, France. p. 600. ISBN 9789264027305. . Retrieved 2010-05-04.
[48] Grubb, M. (July–September 2003). "The Economics of the Kyoto Protocol" (http:/ / www. econ. cam. ac. uk/ rstaff/ grubb/ publications/
J36. pdf). World Economics 4 (3): 143–189. . Retrieved 2010-03-25.
[49] Herzog, T., et al. (November 2006). Yamashita, M.B.. ed (PDF). Target: intensity - an analysis of greenhouse gas intensity targets (http:/ /
pdf. wri. org/ target_intensity. pdf). World Resources Institute. ISBN 1569736383. . Retrieved 2011-04-11.
[50] IPCC (2007). "Annex I: Glossary J-P" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ annex1sglossary-j-p. html). In B. Metz,
O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880114. . Retrieved 2011-04-11.
[51] Markandya, A. et al. (2001). "7.3.5 Cost Implications of Alternative GHG Emission Reduction Options and Carbon Sinks" (http:/ / www.
grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg3/ 293. htm). In B. Metz et al.. Costing Methodologies. Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of
Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: GRID-Arendal website. doi:10.2277/0521015022.
ISBN 9780521015028. . Retrieved 2011-04-11.
[52] UNFCCC (19 November 2007). "Compilation and synthesis of fourth national communications. Executive summary. Note by the
secretariat. Document code: FCCC/SBI/2007/INF.6" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ documentation/ documents/ advanced_search/ items/ 3594.
php?rec=j& priref=600004368#beg). United Nations Office at Geneva, Switzerland. . Retrieved 2010-05-17.
[53] PBL (October 16, 2009). "Industrialised countries will collectively meet 2010 Kyoto target" (http:/ / www. pbl. nl/ en/ dossiers/ COP13Bali/
moreinfo/ Industrialised-countries-will-collectively-meet-2010-Kyoto-target. html). Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)
website. . Retrieved 2010-04-03.
[54] Rogner, H.-H., D. Zhou, R. Bradley. P. Crabbé, O. Edenhofer, B.Hare, L. Kuijpers, M. Yamaguchi (2007). "Executive Summary" (http:/ /
www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ ch1s1-es. html). In B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer.
Introduction. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. This version:
IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880114. . Retrieved 2010-05-05.
[55] Târziu DR, Păcurar VD (Feb 2011). "Forest, climate and energy" (http:/ / www. revistapadurilor. ro/ index. php?section=Article&
ID=16720). Revista pădurilor 125 (1): 34–40. . Retrieved 2011-03-14.
[56] PBL (25 June 2009). "Global CO2 emissions: annual increase halves in 2008" (http:/ / www. pbl. nl/ en/ publications/ 2009/
Global-CO2-emissions-annual-increase-halves-in-2008. html). Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) website. . Retrieved
2010-05-05.
[57] Carbon Trust (March 2009). "Global Carbon Mechanisms: Emerging lessons and implications (CTC748)" (http:/ / www. carbontrust. co. uk/
Publications/ pages/ publicationdetail. aspx?id=CTC748& respos=2& q=global+ carbon+ market& o=Rank& od=asc& pn=0& ps=10).
Carbon Trust website. . Retrieved 2010-03-31.
[58] PBL (24 February 2010). "Dossier Climate Change: FAQs. Question 10: Which are the top-20 CO2 or GHG emitting countries?" (http:/ /
www. pbl. nl/ en/ dossiers/ Climatechange/ FAQs/ index. html?vraag=10& title=Which are the top-20 CO2 or GHG emitting countries?#10).
Netherlands Environment Agency website. . Retrieved 2010-05-01.
[59] MNP (2007). "Greenhouse gas emissions of countries in 2005 and ranking of their per capita emissions. Table 2.a. Top-20 countries of
greenhouse emissions in 2006 from fossil fuels and cement production" (http:/ / www. pbl. nl/ images/
Top20-CO2andGHG-countries-in2006-2005(GB)_tcm61-36276. xls). Netherlands Environment Agency website. . Retrieved 2010-05-01.
[60] Helm, D., et al. (10 December 2007). "Too Good To Be True? The UK's Climate Change Record" (http:/ / www. dieterhelm. co. uk/ sites/
default/ files/ Carbon_record_2007_0. pdf) (PDF). Website of Dieter Helm, a professor at the University of Oxford and a Fellow of New
College, Oxford. . Retrieved 2011-04-18.
Greenhouse gas 102

[61] Davis, S.K. and K. Caldeira (8 March 2010). "Consumption-based Accounting of CO2 Emissions" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ content/ early/
2010/ 02/ 23/ 0906974107. abstract). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. doi:10.1073/pnas.0906974107. . Retrieved
2011-04-18.
[62] Rogner, H.-H., D. Zhou, R. Bradley. P. Crabbé, O. Edenhofer, B.Hare, L. Kuijpers, M. Yamaguchi (2007). 1.3.1.2 Intensities. In (book
chapter): Introduction. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ ch1s1-3-1-2. html). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New
York, NY, USA. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880114. . Retrieved 2010-05-05.
[63] Greenhouse Gas Emissions from a Typical Passenger Vehicle, US Environment Protection Agency (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ oms/ climate/
420f05004. htm#step1)
[64] How Gasoline Becomes CO2, Slate Magazine (http:/ / www. slate. com/ id/ 2152685/ )
[65] "Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases Program" (http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ oiaf/ 1605/ coefficients. html). Energy Information
Administration. . Retrieved 21 August 2009.
[66] AGU Water Vapor in the Climate System - 1995 (http:/ / www. eso. org/ gen-fac/ pubs/ astclim/ espas/ pwv/ mockler. html)
[67] Betts et al (2001). "6.3 Well-mixed Greenhouse Gases" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ publications/ other/ ipcc_tar/ ?src=/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/
218. htm). Chapter 6 Radiative Forcing of Climate Change. Working Group I: The Scientific Basis IPCC Third Assessment Report - Climate
Change 2001. UNEP/GRID-Arendal - Publications. . Retrieved 2010-10-16.
[68] Jacob, Daniel (1999). Introduction to Atmospheric Chemistry (http:/ / www-as. harvard. edu/ people/ faculty/ djj/ book/ ). Princeton
University Press. pp. 25–26. ISBN 0-691-00185-5. .
[69] edited by Susan Solomon ... (2007). "Frequently Asked Question 7.1 "Are the Increases in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Other
Greenhouse Gases During the Industrial Era Caused by Human Activities?"" (http:/ / www. gcrio. org/ ipcc/ ar4/ wg1/ faq/ ar4wg1faq-7-1.
pdf). In Solomon, Kristen; Qin, Dahe; Manning, Martin et al.. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution
of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http:/ / ipcc-wg1. ucar. edu/ wg1/
wg1-report. html). Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge Press. ISBN 978-0521-88009-1. . Retrieved 24 July
2007.
[70] Archer, David (2005). "Fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geologic time" (http:/ / geosci. uchicago. edu/ ~archer/ reprints/ archer. 2005. fate_co2.
pdf) (PDF). Journal of Geophysical Research 110 (C9): C09S05.1–C09S05.6. Bibcode 2005JGRC..11009S05A. doi:10.1029/2004JC002625.
. Retrieved 27 July 2007.
[71] Caldeira, Ken; Wickett, Michael E. (2005). "Ocean model predictions of chemistry changes from carbon dioxide emissions to the
atmosphere and ocean" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070810202611/ http:/ / www. ipsl. jussieu. fr/ ~jomce/ acidification/ paper/
Caldeira_Wickett_2005_JGR. pdf) (PDF). Journal of Geophysical Research 110 (C9): C09S04.1–12. Bibcode 2005JGRC..11009S04C.
doi:10.1029/2004JC002671. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. ipsl. jussieu. fr/ ~jomce/ acidification/ paper/
Caldeira_Wickett_2005_JGR. pdf) on 10 August 2007. . Retrieved 27 July 2007.
[72] IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Table 2.14, Chap. 2, p. 212 (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter2.
pdf)
[73] Use of ozone depleting substances in laboratories (http:/ / www. norden. org/ pub/ ebook/ 2003-516. pdf). TemaNord 2003:516
[74] Montreal Protocol
[75] Canadell, J.G.; Le Quere, C.; Raupach, M.R.; Field, C.B.; Buitenhuis, E.T.; Ciais, P.; Conway, T.J.; Gillett, N.P.; Houghton, R.A.; Marland,
G. (2007). "Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks"
(http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ reprint/ 0702737104v1. pdf). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.. . Retrieved 15 March 2008.
[76] Obersteiner M, Azar C, Kauppi P, et al. (October 2001). "Managing climate risk". Science 294 (5543): 786–7.
doi:10.1126/science.294.5543.786b. PMID 11681318.
[77] Azar, C., Lindgren, K., Larson, E.D. and Möllersten, K. (2006). "Carbon capture and storage from fossil fuels and biomass – Costs and
potential role in stabilising the atmosphere" (http:/ / www. environmental-expert. com/ Files\6063\articles\6220\w30h4274h130580u. pdf).
Climatic Change 74: 47–79. doi:10.1007/s10584-005-3484-7. .
[78] "Geoengineering the climate: science, governance and uncertainty" (http:/ / royalsociety. org/ displaypagedoc. asp?id=35151). The Royal
Society. 2009. . Retrieved 12 September 2009.
[79] Fischer, B.S., N. Nakicenovic, K. Alfsen, J. Corfee Morlot, F. de la Chesnaye, J.-Ch. Hourcade, K. Jiang, M. Kainuma, E. La Rovere, A.
Matysek, A. Rana, K. Riahi, R. Richels, S. Rose, D. van Vuuren, R. Warren, (2007) “Issues related to mitigation in the long term context”, In
Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on
Climate Change (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg3/ ar4-wg3-chapter3. pdf) [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R.
Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[80] Impact of Emissions, Chemistry, and Climate on Atmospheric Carbon Monoxide: 100-year Predictions from a Global Chemistry-Climate
Model (http:/ / web. mit. edu/ globalchange/ www/ MITJPSPGC_Rpt35. pdf)PDF (115 KB)
[81] Shindell, Drew T. (2005). "An emissions-based view of climate forcing by methane and tropospheric ozone" (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/
vision/ earth/ lookingatearth/ methane. html). Geophysical Research Letters 32: L04803. Bibcode 2005GeoRL..3204803S.
doi:10.1029/2004GL021900. .
[82] "Methane's Impacts on Climate Change May Be Twice Previous Estimates" (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/ vision/ earth/ lookingatearth/ methane.
html). Nasa.gov. 2007-11-30. . Retrieved 2010-10-16.
Greenhouse gas 103

References

External links
• Greenhouse gas (http://www.dmoz.org/Science/Environment/Global_Change//) at the Open Directory
Project
• The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) (http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/aggi/)
• Atmospheric spectra of GHGs and other trace gases (http://www.spectralcalc.com/)
• Greenhouse Gases (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html) Sources, Levels, Study
results — University of Michigan; eia.doe.gov findings
• How Much Greenhouse Gas Does the United States Emit? (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/energy_in_brief/
greenhouse_gas.cfm)
• Grist article on convenient summary from various sources incl IPCC of greenhouse gas emissions (http://
gristmill.grist.org/story/2009/1/11/192838/298) * *
• Convenient summary of Greenhouse gas emissions (http://spreadsheets.google.com/
ccc?key=pzrff2j0rl2wNrQfxOKkYYQ)
• Greenhouse Gases (http://www.lakescientist.com/learn-about-lakes/lakes-climate-change/
lakes-and-greenhouse-gases.html)
Carbon dioxide emissions
• Carbon Emissions World Map in 2009 (http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Guardian/documents/2011/02/
10/CarbonWeb.pdf) Mark McCormick and Paul Scruton, Guardian February 2011
• Eddy covariance
• International Energy Annual: Reserves (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/res.html)
• International Energy Annual 2003: Carbon Dioxide Emissions (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/carbon.
html)
• International Energy Annual 2003: Notes and Sources for Table H.1co2 (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/
Notes for Table H_1co2.html) (Metric tons of carbon dioxide can be converted to metric tons of carbon
equivalent by multiplying by 12/44)
• Textbook on Eddy Covariance Measurements of Gas Emissions (http://www.licor.com/env/applications/
eddy_covariance/book.jsp)
• Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/) (NOAA)
• NOAA Paleoclimatology Program — Vostok Ice Core (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/antarctica/
vostok/vostok.html)
• NOAA CMDL CCGG — Interactive Atmospheric Data Visualization (http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg/iadv/
) NOAA CO2 data
• Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre FAQ (http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pns/faq.html) Includes links to
Carbon Dioxide statistics
• Little Green Data Book 2007 (http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDATASTA/64199955-1178226923002/
21322619/LGDB2007.pdf), World Bank. Lists CO2 statistics by country, including per capita and by country
income class.
• Database of carbon emissions of power plants (http://www.carma.org/)
• NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory (http://oco.jpl.nasa.gov/)
Methane emissions
• Eddy covariance
• BBC News — Thawing Siberian bogs are releasing more methane (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/
nature/5321046.stm)
Greenhouse gas 104

• Textbook on Eddy Covariance Measurements of Gas Emissions (http://www.licor.com/env/applications/


eddy_covariance/book.jsp)

Land use, land-use change and forestry


Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) is defined by the UN Climate Change Secretariat as "A
greenhouse gas inventory sector that covers emissions and removals of greenhouse gases resulting from direct
human-induced land use, land-use change and forestry activities."[1]
LULUCF has impacts on the global carbon cycle and as such these activities can add or remove carbon dioxide (or,
more generally, carbon) from the atmosphere, contributing to climate change. LULUCF has been the subject of two
major reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Additionally, land use is of critical
importance for biodiversity.

Climatic impacts of land-use, land-use change and forestry


Land-use change can be a factor in CO2 atmospheric
concentration, and is thus a contributor to climate change.
IPCC estimates that land-use change (e.g. conversion of
forest into agricultural land) contributes a net 1.6 ± 0.8 Gt
carbon per year to the atmosphere. For comparison, the
major source of CO2, namely emissions from fossil fuel
combustion and cement production amount to 6.3 ± 0.6
Gt carbon per year.[2] This decision sets out the rules that
govern how Kyoto Parties with emission reduction Per capita greenhouse gas emissions by country including
land-use change
commitments (co-called Annex 1 Parties) account for
changes in carbon stocks in land use, land-use change and
forestry. It is mandatory for Annex 1 Parties to account for changes in carbons stocks resulting from afforestation,
reforestation and afforestation (B Article 3.3) [3] and voluntary to account for emissions from forest management,
cropland management, grazing land management and revegetation (B. Article 3.4).

The rules governing the treatment of land use, land-use change and forestry for the second commitment period are
currently being renegotiated as part of the Bali Action Plan under the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Further
Commitments for Annex 1 Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) [4] .
The most recent options for rule changes under consideration are summarized in a "Non-Paper" the co-chairs of the
contact group on LULUCF (as of June 12)[5] .
Land use, land-use change and forestry 105

Land use and biodiversity


The extent, and type of land use directly affects wildlife
habitat and thereby impacts local and global biodiversity.
Human alteration of landscapes from natural vegetation
(e.g. wilderness) to any other use typically results in
habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation, all of which
can have devastating effects on biodiversity. Land
conversion is the single greatest cause of extinction of
terrestrial species[6] . An example of land conversion
being a chief cause of the critically endangered status of a Per capita greenhouse gas emissions by country not including
land-use change
carnivore is the reduction in habitat for the African Wild
Dog, Lycaon pictus.)[7]

Of particular concern is deforestation, where logging or burning are followed by the conversion of the land to
agriculture or other land uses. Even if some forests are left standing, the resulting fragmented landscape typically
fails to support many species that previously existed there.

References
[1] Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) (http:/ / unfccc. int/ essential_background/ glossary/ items/ 3666. php#L), Glossary of
climate change acronyms, UNFCCC website. Retrieved 2009-01-11.
[2] "Vital Climate Graphics | UNEP/GRID-Arendal - Publications - Vital Climate Graphics" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ vital/ 10. htm).
Grida.no. . Retrieved 2010-04-29.
[3] "Microsoft Word - kpcmp8a3.doc" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ resource/ docs/ 2005/ cmp1/ eng/ 08a03. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-04-29.
[4] AWG-KP begins final year of work (http:/ / unfccc. int/ kyoto_protocol/ items/ 4795. php), UNFCCC website. Retrieved 2009-10-11.
[5] A text on other issues outlined in document FCCC/KP/AWG/2008/8 (http:/ / unfccc. int/ resource/ docs/ 2009/ awg8/ eng/ 08. pdf), UNFCCC
website. Retrieved 2009-10-11.
[6] Bierregaard, Richard; Claude Gascon, Thomas E. Lovejoy, and Rita Mesquita (eds.) (2001). Lessons from Amazonia: The Ecology and
Conservation of a Fragmented Forest. ISBN 0300084838.
[7] C. Michael Hogan. 2009. Painted Hunting Dog: Lycaon pictus, GlobalTwitcher.com, ed. N. Stromberg (http:/ / globaltwitcher. auderis. se/
artspec_information. asp?thingid=35993)

External links
• Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/
public/gpglulucf/gpglulucf.htm)
• IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/
land_use/index.htm)
Radiative forcing 106

Radiative forcing
In climate science, radiative forcing is loosely defined as the change in net irradiance at atmospheric boundaries
between different layers of the atmosphere, namely the troposphere and the stratosphere (the tropopause). Net
irradiance is the difference between the incoming radiation energy and the outgoing radiation energy in a given
climate system and is measured in Watts per square meter. The change is computed based on "unperturbed" values,
defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as the measured difference relative to a base
period. For radiative forcings for the industrial era, it is customary to take the year 1750 as the starting point. A
positive forcing (more incoming energy) tends to warm the system, while a negative forcing (more outgoing energy)
tends to cool it. Possible sources of radiative forcing are changes in insolation (incident solar radiation), or the
effects of variations in the amount of radiatively active gases and aerosols present. Because the IPCC regularly
assesses the radiative forcing, it also has a more specific technical definition - see "IPCC usage" section.

Radiation balance
The vast majority of the energy which affects Earth's weather comes from the Sun. The planet and its atmosphere
absorb and reflect some of the energy, while long-wave energy is radiated back into space. The balance between
absorbed and radiated energy determines the average temperature. The planet is warmer than it would be in the
absence of the atmosphere: see greenhouse effect.
The radiation balance can be altered by factors such as intensity of solar energy, reflection by clouds or gases,
absorption by various gases or surfaces, and emission of heat by various materials. Any such alteration is a radiative
forcing, and causes a new balance to be reached. In the real world this happens continuously as sunlight hits the
surface, clouds and aerosols form, the concentrations of atmospheric gases vary, and seasons alter the ground cover.

IPCC usage
The term “radiative forcing” has been used in the IPCC
Assessments with a specific technical meaning, to
denote an externally imposed perturbation in the
radiative energy budget of Earth’s climate system,
which may lead to changes in climate parameters.[1]
The exact definition used is:

The radiative forcing of the surface-troposphere


system due to the perturbation in or the
introduction of an agent (say, a change in
greenhouse gas concentrations) is the change in
net (down minus up) irradiance (solar plus
long-wave; in Wm-2) at the tropopause AFTER
allowing for stratospheric temperatures to 2005 radiative forcings as estimated by the IPCC.
readjust to radiative equilibrium, but with surface
and tropospheric temperatures and state held fixed at the unperturbed values.[2]

In a subsequent report,[3] the IPCC defines it as:


"Radiative forcing is a measure of the influence a factor has in altering the balance of incoming and
outgoing energy in the Earth-atmosphere system and is an index of the importance of the factor as a
potential climate change mechanism. In this report radiative forcing values are for changes relative to
preindustrial conditions defined at 1750 and are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m2)."
Radiative forcing 107

In simple terms, radiative forcing is "...the rate of energy change per unit area of the globe as measured at the top of
the atmosphere."[4] In the context of climate change, the term "forcing" is restricted to changes in the radiation
balance of the surface-troposphere system imposed by external factors, with no changes in stratospheric dynamics,
no surface and tropospheric feedbacks in operation (i.e., no secondary effects induced because of changes in
tropospheric motions or its thermodynamic state), and no dynamically induced changes in the amount and
distribution of atmospheric water (vapour, liquid, and solid forms).
Radiative forcing can be used to estimate a subsequent change in equilibrium surface temperature (ΔTs) arising from
that radiative forcing via the equation:

where λ is the climate sensitivity, usually with units in K/(W/m2), and ΔF is the radiative forcing.[5] A typical value
of λ is 0.8 K/(W/m2), which gives a warming of 3K for doubling of CO2.

Example calculations
Radiative forcing (often measured in watts per square
meter) can be estimated in different ways for different
components. For the case of a change in solar
irradiance, the radiative forcing is the change in the
solar constant divided by 4 and multiplied by 0.7 to
take into account the geometry of the sphere and the
amount of reflected sunlight. For a greenhouse gas,
such as carbon dioxide, radiative transfer codes that
examine each spectral line for atmospheric conditions
can be used to calculate the change ΔF as a function of
changing concentration. These calculations can often be Radiative forcing for doubling CO2, as calculated by radiative
simplified into an algebraic formulation that is specific transfer code Modtran. Red lines are Planck curves.
to that gas.

For instance, the simplified first-order approximation


expression for carbon dioxide is:

Radiative forcing for eight times increase of CH4, as calculated by


radiative transfer code Modtran.

where C is the CO2 concentration in parts per million by volume and C0 is the reference concentration.[6] The
relationship between carbon dioxide and radiative forcing is logarithmic so that increased concentrations have a
progressively smaller warming effect.
Formulas for other greenhouse gases such as methane, N2O or CFCs are given in the IPCC reports.[7]
Radiative forcing 108

Related measures
Radiative forcing is intended as a useful way to compare different causes of perturbations in a climate system. Other
possible tools can be constructed for the same purpose: for example Shine et al.[8] say "...recent experiments indicate
that for changes in absorbing aerosols and ozone, the predictive ability of radiative forcing is much worse... we
propose an alternative, the 'adjusted troposphere and stratosphere forcing'. We present GCM calculations showing
that it is a significantly more reliable predictor of this GCM's surface temperature change than radiative forcing. It is
a candidate to supplement radiative forcing as a metric for comparing different mechanisms...". In this quote, GCM
stands for "global circulation model", and the word "predictive" does not refer to the ability of GCMs to forecast
climate change. Instead, it refers to the ability of the alternative tool proposed by the authors to help explain the
system response.

References
[1] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 212. htm
[2] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 214. htm#611
[3] http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ syr/ ar4_syr. pdf
[4] Rockstrom, Johan; Steffen, Will; Noone, Kevin; Persson, Asa; Chapin, F. Stuart; Lambin, Eric F.; et al., TM; Scheffer, M et al. (2009). "A
safe operating space for humanity". Nature 461 (7263): 472–475. doi:10.1038/461472a. PMID 19779433.
[5] http:/ / www. grida. no/ publications/ other/ ipcc_tar/ ?src=/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 222. htm
[6] Myhre et al., New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 1998/
98GL01908. shtml), Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 25, No. 14, pp 2715–2718, 1998
[7] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 222. htm
[8] Shine et al., An alternative to radiative forcing for estimating the relative importance of climate change mechanisms (http:/ / www. agu. org/
pubs/ crossref/ 2003/ 2003GL018141. shtml), Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 30, No. 20, 2047, doi:10.1029/2003GL018141, 2003

• IPCC glossary http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/glossary/ar4-wg1.pdf

External links
• CO2: The Thermostat that Controls Earth's Temperature (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/lacis_01/
) by NASA, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, October, 2010, Forcing vs. Feedbacks
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report (2007), Chapter 2, “Changes in
Atmospheric Constituents and Radiative Forcing,” (http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/
ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf) pp. 133–134 (PDF, 8.6 MB, 106 pp.).
• NOAA/ESRL Global Monitoring Division (no date), The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (http://www.
esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/). Calculations of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases.
• U.S. EPA (2009), Climate Change – Science (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/recentac.html).
Explanation of climate change topics including radiative forcing.
• United States National Research Council (2005), Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept
and Addressing Uncertainties (http://www.nap.edu/openbook/0309095069/html/), Board on Atmospheric
Sciences and Climate
• A layman's guide to radiative forcing, CO2e, global warming potential etc (http://www.darkoptimism.org/
2008/09/03/the-climate-science-translation-guide)
Urban heat island 109

Urban heat island


An urban heat island (UHI) is a
metropolitan area which is significantly
warmer than its surrounding rural areas. The
phenomenon was first investigated and
described by Luke Howard in the 1810s,
although he was not the one to name the
phenomenon.[1] The temperature difference
usually is larger at night than during the day,
and is most apparent when winds are weak.
Seasonally, UHI is seen during both summer
and winter. The main cause of the urban
heat island is modification of the land
surface by urban development which uses
materials which effectively retain heat.
Waste heat generated by energy usage is a Tokyo, an example of an urban heat island. Normal temperatures of Tokyo go up
secondary contributor. As population more than those of the surrounding area.

centers grow they tend to modify a greater


and greater area of land and have a corresponding increase in average temperature. The lesser-used term heat island
refers to any area, populated or not, which is consistently hotter than the surrounding area.[2]

Monthly rainfall is greater downwind of cities, partially due to the UHI. Increases in heat within urban centers
increases the length of growing seasons, and decreases the occurrence of weak tornadoes. Increases in the death rate
during heat waves has been shown to increase by latitude due to the urban heat island effect. The UHI decreases air
quality by increasing the production of pollutants such as ozone, and decreases water quality as warmer waters flow
into area streams, which stresses their ecosystems.
Not all cities have a distinct urban heat island. Mitigation of the urban heat island effect can be accomplished
through the use of green roofs and the use of lighter-colored surfaces in urban areas, which reflect more sunlight and
absorb less heat. Despite concerns raised about its possible contribution to global warming, comparisons between
urban and rural areas show that the urban heat island effects have little influence on global mean temperature
trends.[3] Recent qualitative speculations indicate that urban thermal plumes may contribute to variation in wind
patterns that may influence the melting of arctic ice packs and thereby the cycle of ocean current.[4]
Urban heat island 110

Causes
There are several causes of an urban heat island (UHI). The principal
reason for the nighttime warming is that buildings block surface heat
from radiating into the relatively cold night sky. Two other reasons are
changes in the thermal properties of surface materials and lack of
evapotranspiration (for example through lack of vegetation) in urban
areas. Materials commonly used in urban areas for pavement and roofs,
such as concrete and asphalt, have significantly different thermal bulk
properties (including heat capacity and thermal conductivity) and
surface radiative properties (albedo and emissivity) than the
surrounding rural areas. This causes a change in the energy balance of
the urban area, often leading to higher temperatures than surrounding
rural areas.[5]

Other causes of a UHI are due to geometric effects. The tall buildings
within many urban areas provide multiple surfaces for the reflection
and absorption of sunlight, increasing the efficiency with which urban
areas are heated. This is called the "urban canyon effect". Another
effect of buildings is the blocking of wind, which also inhibits cooling
by convection. Waste heat from automobiles, air conditioning,
industry, and other sources also contributes to the UHI. High levels of
pollution in urban areas can also increase the UHI, as many forms of
pollution change the radiative properties of the atmosphere.[5]

Some cities exhibit a heat island effect, largest at night. Seasonally, Thermal (top) and vegetation (bottom) locations
UHI shows up both in summer and winter.[6] [7] The typical around New York City via infrared satellite
temperature difference is several degrees between the center of the city imagery. A comparison of the images shows that
where vegetation is dense, temperatures are
and surrounding fields. The difference in temperature between an inner
cooler.
city and its surrounding suburbs is frequently mentioned in weather
reports, as in "68 °F (20 °C) downtown, 64 °F (18 °C) in the suburbs".
Black surfaces absorb significantly more electromagnetic radiation, and causes the surfaces of asphalt roads and
highways to heat.[8]

Diurnal behavior
The IPCC stated that "it is well-known that compared to non-urban areas urban heat islands raise night-time
temperatures more than daytime temperatures."[9] For example, Barcelona, Spain is 0.2 °C (0.4 °F) cooler for daily
maxima and 2.9 °C (5.2 °F) warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.[10] A description of the very first report
of the UHI by Luke Howard in the late 1810s said that the urban center of London was warmer at night than the
surrounding countryside by 3.7 °F (2.1 °C).[11] Though the warmer air temperature within the UHI is generally most
apparent at night, urban heat islands exhibit significant and somewhat paradoxical diurnal behavior. The air
temperature difference between the UHI and the surrounding environment is large at night and small during the day.
The opposite is true for skin temperatures of the urban landscape within the UHI.[12]
Throughout the daytime, particularly when the skies are free of clouds, urban surfaces are warmed by the absorption
of solar radiation. Surfaces in the urban areas tend to warm faster than those of the surrounding rural areas. By virtue
of their high heat capacities, urban surfaces act as a giant reservoir of heat energy. For example, concrete can hold
roughly 2,000 times as much heat as an equivalent volume of air. As a result, the large daytime surface temperature
within the UHI is easily seen via thermal remote sensing.[13] As is often the case with daytime heating, this warming
Urban heat island 111

also has the effect of generating convective winds within the urban boundary layer. It is theorized that, due to the
atmospheric mixing that results, the air temperature perturbation within the UHI is generally minimal or nonexistent
during the day, though the surface temperatures can reach extremely high levels.[14]
At night, the situation reverses. The absence of solar heating causes the atmospheric convection to decrease, and the
urban boundary layer begins to stabilize. If enough stabilization occurs, an inversion layer is formed. This traps
urban air near the surface, and keeping surface air warm from the still-warm urban surfaces, forming the nighttime
warmer air temperatures within the UHI. Other than the heat retention properties of urban areas, the nighttime
maximum in urban canyons could also be due to the blocking of "sky view" during cooling: surfaces lose heat at
night principally by radiation to the comparatively cool sky, and this is blocked by the buildings in an urban area.
Radiative cooling is more dominant when wind speed is low and the sky is cloudless, and indeed the UHI is found to
be largest at night in these conditions.[15]

Other impacts on weather and climate


Aside from the effect on temperature, UHIs can produce secondary effects on local meteorology, including the
altering of local wind patterns, the development of clouds and fog, the humidity, and the rates of precipitation.[16]
The extra heat provided by the UHI leads to greater upward motion, which can induce additional shower and
thunderstorm activity. In addition, the UHI creates during the day a local low pressure area where relatively moist air
from its rural surroundings converges, possibly leading to more favorable conditions for cloud formation.[17] Rainfall
rates downwind of cities are increased between 48% and 116%. Partly as a result of this warming, monthly rainfall is
about 28% greater between 20 miles (32 km) to 40 miles (64 km) downwind of cities, compared with upwind.[18]
Some cities show a total precipitation increase of 51%.[19]
Research has been done in a few areas suggesting that metropolitan areas are less susceptible to weak tornadoes due
to the turbulent mixing caused by the warmth of the urban heat island.[20] Using satellite images, researchers
discovered that city climates have a noticeable influence on plant growing seasons up to 10 kilometers (6 mi) away
from a city's edges. Growing seasons in 70 cities in eastern North America were about 15 days longer in urban areas
compared to rural areas outside of a city's influence.[21] [22]

Health effects
UHIs have the potential to directly influence the health and welfare of
urban residents. Within the United States alone, an average of 1,000
people die each year due to extreme heat.[23] As UHIs are
characterized by increased temperature, they can potentially increase
the magnitude and duration of heat waves within cities. Research has
found that the mortality rate during a heat wave increases
exponentially with the maximum temperature,[24] an effect that is
exacerbated by the UHI. The nighttime effect of UHIs can be
particularly harmful during a heat wave, as it deprives urban residents Image of Atlanta, Georgia, showing temperature
of the cool relief found in rural areas during the night.[25] distribution, with blue showing cool
temperatures, red warm, and hot areas appear
Research in the United States suggests that the relationship between white.
extreme temperature and mortality varies by location. Heat is more
likely to increase the risk of mortality in cities at mid-latitudes and high latitudes with significant annual temperature
variation. For example, when Chicago and New York experience unusually hot summertime temperatures, elevated
levels of illness and death are predicted. In contrast, parts of the country that are mild to hot year-round have a lower
public health risk from excessive heat. Research shows that residents of southern cities, such as Miami, tend to be
acclimated to hot weather conditions and therefore less vulnerable to heat related deaths.[26]
Urban heat island 112

Increased temperatures and sunny days help lead to the formation of low-level ozone from volatile organic
compounds and nitrous oxides which already exist in the air. As urban heat islands lead to increased temperatures
within cities, they contribute to worsened air quality.[27] UHIs also impair water quality. Hot pavement and rooftop
surfaces transfer their excess heat to stormwater, which then drains into storm sewers and raises water temperatures
as it is released into streams, rivers, ponds, and lakes. Rapid temperature changes can be stressful to aquatic
ecosystems.[28]

Impact on nearby water bodies


Runoff from rainfall can lead to heating via conduction from the surface which the water is flowing over. In August
2001, rains over Cedar Rapids, Iowa led to a 10.5C (18.9F) rise in the nearby stream within one hour, which led to a
fish kill. Since the temperature of the rain was comparatively cool, it could be attributed to the hot pavement of the
city. Similar events have been documented across the American Midwest, as well as Oregon and California.[29]

Impact on energy usage


Another consequence of urban heat islands is the
increased energy required for air conditioning and
refrigeration in cities that are in comparatively hot
climates. The Heat Island Group estimates that the heat
island effect costs Los Angeles about US$100 million
per year in energy.[30] Conversely, those that are in
cold climates such as Moscow, Russia would have less
demand for heating. However, through the
implementation of heat island reduction strategies, Images of Salt Lake City, Utah, show positive correlation between
significant annual net energy savings have been white reflective roofs and cooler temperatures. Image A depicts an
aerial view of Salt Lake City, Utah, site of 865000-square-foot
calculated for northern locations such as Chicago, Salt
(80400 m2) white reflective roof. Image B is a thermal infrared
Lake City, and Toronto.[31] image of same area, showing hot (red and yellow) and cool (green
and blue) spots. The reflective vinyl roof, not absorbing solar
radiation, is shown in blue surrounded by other hot spots.

Mitigation
The temperature difference between urban areas and the surrounding
suburban or rural areas can be as much as 10 degrees. Nearly 40
percent of that increase is due to the prevalence of dark roofs, with the
balance coming from dark pavement and the declining presence of
vegetation. The heat island effect can be counteracted slightly by using
white or reflective materials to build houses, roofs, pavements, and
roads, thus increasing the overall albedo of the city. Relative to
remedying the other sources of the problem, replacing dark roofing
requires the least amount of investment for the most immediate return.
Green roof of City Hall in Chicago, Illinois.
A cool roof made from a reflective material such as vinyl can reflect
three-quarters of the sun’s rays – usually far more – and emit 70 or
more percent of the solar radiation absorbed by the building envelope. Asphalt built-up roofs (BUR), by comparison,
reflect between 6 percent and 26 percent of solar radiation.[32]
Urban heat island 113

Using light-colored concrete has proven effective in reflecting up to 50% more light than asphalt and reducing
ambient temperature.[33] A low albedo value, characteristic of black asphalt, absorbs a large percentage of solar heat
and contributes to the warming of cities. By paving with light colored concrete, in addition to replacing asphalt with
light-colored concrete, communities can lower their average temperature.[34] This is a long established practice in
many countries.
A second option is to increase the amount of well-watered vegetation. These two options can be combined with the
implementation of green roofs. Green roofs are excellent insulators during the warm weather months and the plants
cool the surrounding environment. Air quality is improved as the plants absorb and convert carbon dioxide to
oxygen.[35] The city of New York determined that the cooling potential per area was highest for street trees,
followed by living roofs, light covered surface, and open space planting. From the standpoint of cost effectiveness,
light surfaces, light roofs, and curbside planting have lower costs per temperature reduction.[36]
A hypothetical "cool communities" program in Los Angeles has projected that urban temperatures could be reduced
by approximately 3 °C (5 °F) after planting ten million trees, reroofing five million homes, and painting one-quarter
of the roads at an estimated cost of US$1 billion, giving estimated annual benefits of US$170 million from reduced
air-conditioning costs and US$360 million in smog related health savings.[37]

Green building programs that encourage reduction in the effect


Voluntary green building programs have been promoting the mitigation of the heat island effect for years.[38] For
example, one of the ways for a site to earn points under the US Green Building Council’s (USGBC) Leadership in
Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Green Building Rating System is to take action that reduces heat islands,
minimizing impacts on microclimates and human and wildlife habitats. Credits associated with reflective roofing or
planted roofs can help a building achieve LEED certification. Buildings also receive credits by providing shade.[39]
Similarly, The Green Building Initiative (GBI)’s Green Globes program awards points to sites that take measures to
decrease a building’s energy consumption and reduce the heat island effect. As many as 10 points may be awarded to
sites with roof coverage from vegetation, highly reflective materials, or a combination of the two.[40]

Global warming
Because some parts of some cities may be hotter than their
surroundings, concerns have been raised that the effects of urban
sprawl might be misinterpreted as an increase in global temperature.
While the "heat island" warming is an important local effect, there is
no evidence that it biases trends in historical temperature record. For
example, urban and rural trends are very similar.[9]

The Third Assessment Report from the IPCC says:


However, over the Northern Hemisphere land areas where
urban heat islands are most apparent, both the trends of A depiction of the varying degree of the urban
heat island effect as a function of land use. Gill et
lower-tropospheric temperature and surface air temperature [41]
al. 2007 found that an additional 10% green
show no significant differences. In fact, the lower-tropospheric space can mitigate UHI by up to 4 °C (7 °F).
temperatures warm at a slightly greater rate over North America
(about 0.28°C/decade using satellite data) than do the surface temperatures (0.27°C/decade), although again
the difference is not statistically significant.[9]

Ground temperature measurements, like most weather observations, are logged by location. Their siting predates the
massive sprawl, roadbuilding programs, and high- and medium-rise expansions which contribute to the UHI. More
Urban heat island 114

importantly, station logs allow sites in question to be filtered easily from data sets. Doing so, the presence of heat
islands is visible, but overall trends change in magnitude, not direction. The effects of the urban heat island may be
overstated. One study stated, "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of
urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." This was done by using satellite-based night-light detection of
urban areas, and more thorough homogenisation of the time series (with corrections, for example, for the tendency of
surrounding rural stations to be slightly higher in elevation, and thus cooler, than urban areas). If its conclusion is
accepted, then it is necessary to "unravel the mystery of how a global temperature time series created partly from
urban in situ stations could show no contamination from urban warming." The main conclusion is that microscale
and local-scale impacts dominate the mesoscale impact of the urban heat island. Many sections of towns may be
warmer than rural sites, but surface weather observations are likely to be made in park "cool islands."[42]
Not all cities show a warming relative to their rural surroundings. After trends were adjusted in urban weather
stations around the world to match rural stations in their regions, in an effort to homogenise the temperature record,
in 42 percent of cases, cities were getting cooler relative to their surroundings rather than warmer. One reason is that
urban areas are heterogeneous, and weather stations are often sited in "cool islands" – parks, for example – within
urban areas.[43]
Studies in 2004 and 2006 attempted to test the urban heat island theory, by comparing temperature readings taken on
calm nights with those taken on windy nights.[44] [45] If the urban heat island theory is correct then instruments
should have recorded a bigger temperature rise for calm nights than for windy ones, because wind blows excess heat
away from cities and away from the measuring instruments. There was no difference between the calm and windy
nights, and one study said that we show that, globally, temperatures over land have risen as much on windy nights as
on calm nights, indicating that the observed overall warming is not a consequence of urban development.[44] [46]
A view often held by skeptics of global warming is that much of the temperature increase seen in land based
thermometers could be due to an increase in urbanization and the siting of measurement stations in urban areas.[47]
For example, Ross McKitrick and Patrick J. Michaels conducted a statistical study of surface-temperature data
regressed against socioeconomic indicators, and concluded that about half of the observed warming trend (for
1979–2002) could be accounted for by the residual UHI effects in the corrected temperature data set they
studied—which had already been processed to remove the (modeled) UHI contribution.[48] [49] Critics of this paper,
including Gavin A. Schmidt,[50] have said the results can be explained away as an artifact of spatial autocorrelation.
Mckittrick and Nicolas Nierenberg have rebutted Schmidt's critique, and found that "the evidence for contamination
of climatic data is robust across numerous data sets." [51]
Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report from the IPCC states the following.
Studies that have looked at hemispheric and global scales conclude that any urban-related trend is an order of
magnitude smaller than decadal and longer time-scale trends evident in the series (e.g., Jones et al., 1990;
Peterson et al., 1999). This result could partly be attributed to the omission from the gridded data set of a small
number of sites (<1%) with clear urban-related warming trends. In a worldwide set of about 270 stations,
Parker (2004, 2006) noted that warming trends in night minimum temperatures over the period 1950 to 2000
were not enhanced on calm nights, which would be the time most likely to be affected by urban warming.
Thus, the global land warming trend discussed is very unlikely to be influenced significantly by increasing
urbanisation (Parker, 2006). ... Accordingly, this assessment adds the same level of urban warming uncertainty
as in the TAR: 0.006°C per decade since 1900 for land, and 0.002°C per decade since 1900 for blended land
with ocean, as ocean UHI is zero.[52]
Urban heat island 115

Ocean temperatures
Climate reporting includes "global average surface temperature," which is combined from the land surface
temperature and ocean surface temperature. As the Fourth Assessment hints, the oceans are immune to urban
measurement effects. Oceanic data is in hand from a wide variety of different data collection methods, taken by both
civil and national defense groups, and academic and commercial groups, as well as multiple subsurface readings:
• Fixed and drifting weather buoys
• Weather ships and ships' logs [53]
• Several sinker and float types
• Ocean acoustic tomography
As water covers approximately 70% of the surface of the Earth, has a higher thermal mass, and can mix, any possible
errors due to urbanization (itself a fraction of the land area) will be averaged down to a fraction of their original
magnitude.

Three-dimensional sampling
In addition, lower-, middle-, upper-, and ultrahigh-atmosphere datasets can be consulted. In addition to distance,
winds and mixing, as mentioned above, average down any effects of urban heating on an instrument. Many weather
balloons are launched daily, around the world; balloons often reach the stratosphere, and depending on launch site
may also overfly oceans. Dedicated weather planes exist; AIREP and AMDAR data from airliner programs (both
dedicated, and incidental) also records the stratosphere, and includes transoceanic routes. Satellites observe over both
land and water, recording temperatures at altitude through infrared and microwave radiometry, and now
refractometry. In exceptional situations dropsondes may be used to profile storms in three dimensions. Lower-quality
data can be obtained with rocketsondes, temperature LIDARs, measurement of orbital decay on suitable satellites,
and other methods.

Phenology
Most phenologies are not reliant on instrumentation, and are largely immune to calibration effects. While they are
subject to observer and sampling effects, and have far coarser resolutions, they complement instrument data by
acting as independent checks. Phenologies also include shifts in the ranges of fish, and high-altitude observations.

References
[1] Luke Howard, The climate of London, deduced from Meteorological observations, made at different places in the neighbourhood of the
metropolis, 2 vol., London, 1818-20
[2] Glossary of Meteorology (2009). "Urban Heat Island" (http:/ / amsglossary. allenpress. com/ glossary/ search?id=urban-heat-island1).
American Meteorological Society. . Retrieved 2009-06-19.
[3] Peterson, T.C.; Gallo, K.P.; Lawrimore, J.; Owen, T.W.; Huang, A.; McKittrick, D.A. (1999). "Global rural temperature trends". Geophysical
Research Letters 26 (3): 329–332. Bibcode 1999GeoRL..26..329P. doi:10.1029/1998GL900322.
[4] Anthony Rail (2007). Urban Thermal Plumes (1st ed.). Sudbury: Kastell. ISBN 978-0-9565215-0-7.
[5] T. R. Oke (1982). "The energetic basis of the urban heat island". Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 108: 1–24.
[6] Imyunku (2009). "Learning About Urban Heat Islands" (http:/ / home. pusan. ac. kr/ ~imyunkyu/ research/ about_UHI. html). Pusan National
University. . Retrieved 2009-06-18.
[7] Hinkel, Kenneth M. (March 2003). "Barrow Urban Heat Island Study" (http:/ / www. geography. uc. edu/ ~kenhinke/ uhi/ ). Department of
Geography, University of Cincinnati. . Retrieved 2007-08-02.
[8] Brian Jones (2007-11-14). "What does color have to do with cooling?" (http:/ / littleshop. physics. colostate. edu/ activities/ atmos1/
ColorAndCooling. pdf). Colorado State University. . Retrieved 2009-09-07.
[9] IPCC (2001). "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Chapter 2.2 How Much is the World Warming?" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/
ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 052. htm#2221). . Retrieved 2009-06-18.
[10] M. Carmen Moreno-garcia (1993-10-28). "Intensity and form of the urban heat island in barcelona" (http:/ / www3. interscience. wiley.
com/ journal/ 114028197/ abstract?CRETRY=1& SRETRY=0). International Journal of Climatology 14 (6): 705–710.
doi:10.1002/joc.3370140609. . Retrieved 2009-06-27.
Urban heat island 116

[11] Keith C. Heidorn (2009). "Luke Howard: The Man Who Named The Clouds" (http:/ / www. islandnet. com/ ~see/ weather/ history/ howard.
htm). Islandnet.com. . Retrieved 2009-06-18.
[12] M. Roth, T. R. Oke, and W. J. Emery (1989). "Satellite-derived urban heat islands from three coastal cities and the utilization of such data in
urban climatology". International Journal of Remote Sensing 10: 1699–1720. doi:10.1080/01431168908904002.
[13] H.-Y. Lee (1993). "An application of NOAA AVHRR thermal data to the study or urban heat islands". Atmospheric Environment 27B:
1–13.
[14] I. Camilloni and V. Barros (1997). "On the urban heat island effect dependence on temperature trends". Climatic Change 37: 665–681.
doi:10.1023/A:1005341523032.
[15] C.J.G. (Jon) Morris (2006-07-09). earthsci.unimelb.edu.au "Urban Heat Islands and Climate Change - Melbourne, Australia" (http:/ / www.
earthsci. unimelb. edu. au/ ~jon/ WWW/ uhi-melb. html). University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. earthsci.unimelb.edu.au. Retrieved
2009-06-18.
[16] Arizona Board of Regents (2006). "Urban Climate – Climate Study and UHI via the Internet Wayback Machine" (http:/ / web. archive. org/
web/ 20071123091726/ http:/ / asusmart. com/ urbanclimate. php). Arizona State University. Archived from the original (http:/ / asusmart.
com/ urbanclimate. php) on 2007-11-23. . Retrieved 2007-08-02.
[17] Chiel C. van Heerwaarden and J. Vilà-Guerau de Arellano (2008). "Relative humidity as an indicator for cloud formation over
heterogeneous land surfaces". Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 65: 3263–3277. doi:10.1175/2008JAS2591.1.
[18] Fuchs, Dale (2005-06-28). "Spain goes hi-tech to beat drought" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ weather/ Story/ 0,2763,1516375,00. html).
The Guardian. . Retrieved 2007-08-02.
[19] Goddard Space Flight Center (2002-06-18). "NASA Satellite Confirms Urban Heat Islands Increase Rainfall Around Cities" (http:/ / web.
archive. org/ web/ 20080612173654/ http:/ / www. gsfc. nasa. gov/ topstory/ 20020613urbanrain. html). National Aeronautics and Space
Administration. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. gsfc. nasa. gov/ topstory/ 20020613urbanrain. html) on June 12, 2008. . Retrieved
2009-07-17.
[20] "Myths and Misconceptions about Tornadoes" (http:/ / www. tornadoproject. com/ myths/ myths. htm). Tornado Project. 1999. . Retrieved
2008-06-24.
[21] NASA (2004-06-29). "Urban Heat Islands Make Cities Greener" (http:/ / eobglossary. gsfc. nasa. gov/ Newsroom/ NasaNews/ 2004/
2004072917348. html). Press release. . Retrieved 2007-08-02.
[22] Gretchen Cook-Anderson (2004-06-29). "Urban Heat Islands Make Cities Greener" (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/ centers/ goddard/ news/
topstory/ 2004/ 0801uhigreen. html). NASA. . Retrieved 2007-08-02.
[23] S. A. Changnon, Jr., K. E. Kunkel, and B. C. Reinke (1996). "Impacts and responses to the 1995 heat wave: A call to action". Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society 77: 1497–1506. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<1497:IARTTH>2.0.CO;2.
[24] R. W. Buechley, J. Van Bruggen, and L. E. Trippi (1972). "Heat island = death island?". Environmental Research 5 (1): 85–92.
doi:10.1016/0013-9351(72)90022-9. PMID 5032927.
[25] J. F. Clarke (1972). "Some effects of the urban structure on heat mortality". Environmental Research 5 (1): 93–104.
doi:10.1016/0013-9351(72)90023-0. PMID 5032928.
[26] Robert E. Davis, Paul C. Knappenberger, Patrick J. Michaels, and Wendy M. Novicoff (November 2003). "Changing Heat-Related
Mortality in the United States" (http:/ / www. ehponline. org/ members/ 2003/ 6336/ 6336. html). Environmental Health Perspectives 111
(14): 1712–1718. doi:10.1289/ehp.6336. PMC 1241712. PMID 14594620. .
[27] New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (2006-06-13). "Weather and Air Quality" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/
20061008122320/ http:/ / www. nj. gov/ dep/ airmon/ waqpage. htm). Interet Archive Wayback Machine. Archived from the original (http:/ /
www. nj. gov/ dep/ airmon/ waqpage. htm) on 2006-10-08. . Retrieved 2008-06-18.
[28] "Urban Climate – Climate Study and UHI" (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ hiri/ about/ index. htm). United States Environmental Protection
Agency. 2009-02-09. . Retrieved 2009-06-18.
[29] Paul A. Tipler and Gene Mosca (2007). Physics for Scientists and Engineers (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=BMVR37-8Jh0C&
pg=PA686& lpg=PA686& dq=satellite+ temperature+ urban+ heat+ island+ book& source=bl& ots=hEWBhB9LVb&
sig=_UwQfiQQgzI9PjWJ9fJwYY_HEp8& hl=en& ei=f8kwTaDhLsSugQfJ4pSgCw& sa=X& oi=book_result& ct=result& resnum=4&
sqi=2& ved=0CCsQ6AEwAw#v=onepage& q=satellite temperature urban heat island book& f=false). Macmillan. p. 686.
ISBN 9781429201247. . Retrieved 2011-01-14.
[30] Sheng-chieh Chang (2000-06-23). "Energy Use" (http:/ / eetd. lbl. gov/ HeatIsland/ EnergyUse/ ). Environmental Energies Technology
Division. . Retrieved 2009-06-18.
[31] "Aging and Weathering of Cool Roofing Membranes" (http:/ / www. vinylroofs. org/ downloads/ library/ aging_weathering. pdf). Cool
Roofing Symposium. 2005-08-23. . Retrieved 2010-08-16.
[32] "Comprehensive Cool Roof Guide from the Vinyl Roofing Division of the Chemical Fabrics and Film Association" (http:/ / vinylroofs. org/
cool-roofs/ cool-roofs-explained. html). .
[33] "Cool Pavement Report" (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ heatisland/ resources/ pdf/ CoolPavementReport_Former Guide_complete. pdf) (PDF).
Environmental Protection Agency. June 2005. p. 14. . Retrieved 2009-02-06.
[34] Al Gore; A. Steffen (2008). World Changing: A User's Guide for the 21st Century. New York: Abrams. pp. 258.
[35] "Green (Planted) Roofs" (http:/ / vinylroofs. org/ cool-roofs/ green-planted-roofs. html). . Retrieved 2010-08-07.
[36] New York City Regional Heat Island Initiative (October 2006). "Mitigating New York City's Heat Island With Urban Forestry, Living
Roofs, and Light Surfaces" (http:/ / www. nyserda. org/ programs/ environment/ emep/ project/ 6681_25/ 06-06 Complete report-web. pdf).
Urban heat island 117

New York State Energy Research and Development Authority. p. ii. . Retrieved 2009-06-18.
[37] Arthur Rosenfeld; Joseph Romm; Hashem Akbari; Alana Lloyd (February/March 1997). "Painting the Town White -- and Green" (http:/ /
eetd. lbl. gov/ HeatIsland/ PUBS/ PAINTING/ ). MIT Technology Review. . Retrieved 2007-09-29.
[38] "Voluntary Green Building Programs" (http:/ / vinylroofs. org/ cool-roofs/ green-programs. html). . Retrieved 2010-08-17.
[39] "LEED 2009 for New Construction and Major Renovations Rating System" (http:/ / www. usgbc. org/ ShowFile. aspx?DocumentID=5546).
US Green Building Council. November 2008. . Retrieved 2010-08-17.
[40] "Green Globes" (http:/ / vinylroofs. org/ cool-roofs/ green-programs-globes. html). . Retrieved 2010-08-17.
[41] http:/ / www. atypon-link. com/ ALEX/ doi/ abs/ 10. 2148/ benv. 33. 1. 115
[42] T. C. Peterson (2003). "Assessment of Urban Versus Rural In Situ Surface Temperatures in the Contiguous United States: No Difference
Found" (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ oa/ wmo/ ccl/ rural-urban. pdf). Journal of Climate 16: 2941–2959.
doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2941:AOUVRI>2.0.CO;2. .
[43] J. Hansen, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, M. Imhoff, W. Lawrence, D. Easterling, T. Peterson, and T. Karl (2001). "A closer look at United States and
global surface temperature change". Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 239–247. Bibcode 2001JGR...10623947H.
doi:10.1029/2001JD000354.
[44] D. E. Parker (2004). "Climate: Large-scale warming is not urban". Nature 432 (7015): 290. doi:10.1038/432290a. PMID 15549087.
[45] David E. Parker (2006). "A demonstration that large-scale warming is not urban". Journal of Climate 19: 2882–2895.
doi:10.1175/JCLI3730.1.
[46] Black, Richard (2004-11-18). "Climate change sceptics 'wrong'" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ uk_news/ 4021197. stm). BBC News. .
Retrieved 2007-08-02.
[47] Richard Black (2004-11-18). "Climate change sceptics 'wrong'" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ uk/ 4021197. stm). BBC. . Retrieved
2009-06-18.
[48] McKitrick, R.R. and P.J. Michaels (2007), Quantifying the influence of anthropogenic surface processes and inhomogeneities on gridded
global climate data, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24S09, doi:10.1029/2007JD008465. Full text (http:/ / www. uoguelph. ca/ ~rmckitri/ research/
jgr07/ M& M. JGRDec07. pdf)
[49] Non-technical summary of M&M 2007 by McKitrick (http:/ / www. uoguelph. ca/ ~rmckitri/ research/ jgr07/ M& M. JGR07-background.
pdf)
[50] Gavin A. Schmidt, 2009, "Spurious correlations between recent warming and indices of local economic activity." International Journal of
Climatology, http:/ / dx. doi. org/ 10. 1002/ joc. 1831, full text (http:/ / www3. interscience. wiley. com/ cgi-bin/ fulltext/ 121590177/
PDFSTART)
[51] McKitrick, Ross R. and Nicolas Nierenberg (2010), "Socioeconomic Patterns in Climate Data." Journal of Economic and Social
Measurement, Volume 35, Number 3-4 / 2010. doi:10.3233/JEM-2010-0336. Full text (http:/ / rossmckitrick. weebly. com/ uploads/ 4/ 8/ 0/ 8/
4808045/ final_jesm_dec2010. formatted. pdf). Also see (http:/ / rossmckitrick. weebly. com/ temperature-data-quality. html) for a
non-technical summary, and comments on the publication delay.
[52] Kevin E. Trenberth, Philip D. Jones, Peter Ambenje, Roxana Bojariu, David Easterling, Albert Klein Tank, David Parker, Fatemeh
Rahimzadeh, James A. Renwick, Matilde Rusticucci, Brian Soden, and Panmao Zhai (2007). "IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Chapter 3 -
Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter3. pdf).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. p. 244. . Retrieved 2009-06-27.
[53] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ oa/ climate/ coads/

Further reading
• P. D. Jones, P.Y. Groisman, M. Coughlan, N. Plummer, W.-C. Wang, T.R. Karl (1990). "Assessment of
urbanization effects in time series of surface air temperature over land". Nature 347: 169–172.
doi:10.1038/347169a0.
• Helmut E. Landsberg (1981). The Urban Climate. New York: Academic Press. ISBN 0124359604.

External links
• Land-Surface Air Temperature (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/052.htm#2221) - from the IPCC
• Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Heat Island Group (http://eetd.lbl.gov/HeatIsland/)
• NASA Earth Observatory: The Earth's Big Cities, Urban Heat Islands (http://eobglossary.gsfc.nasa.gov/Study/
GreenRoof/index.html)
• Urban Heat Islands and Climate Change (http://www.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/~jon/WWW/uhi-melb.html) -
from the University of Melbourne, Australia
• Reducing Urban Heat Islands: Compendium of Strategies – Green Roofs (http://vinylroofs.org/downloads/
green-roofs/GreenRoofsCompendium.pdf)
Urban heat island 118

• Research and mitigation strategies on UHI (http://asusmart.com/urbanclimate.php) - US EPA designated,


National Center of Excellence on SMART Innovations at Arizona State University
• The Surface Temperature Record and the Urban Heat Island (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=43)
From RealClimate.org
• Urban Heat Island research group (http://isu1.indstate.edu/heatisland/) - NSF project, Department of
Geography, Indiana State University
• UrbanHeatIslands.com (http://www.urbanheatislands.com/) - Urban Heat islands in Canada and the world

Albedo
Albedo (English pronunciation: /ælˈbiːdoʊ/), or reflection coefficient, is the
diffuse reflectivity or reflecting power of a surface. It is defined as the
ratio of reflected radiation from the surface to incident radiation upon
it. Being a dimensionless fraction, it may also be expressed as a
percentage, and is measured on a scale from zero for no reflecting
power of a perfectly black surface, to 1 for perfect reflection of a white
surface.

Albedo depends on the frequency of the radiation. When quoted


unqualified, it usually refers to some appropriate average across the
spectrum of visible light. In general, the albedo depends on the
directional distribution of incoming radiation. Exceptions are
Lambertian surfaces, which scatter radiation in all directions according
to a cosine function, so their albedo does not depend on the incident
distribution. In practice, a bidirectional reflectance distribution
function (BRDF) may be required to characterize the scattering
properties of a surface accurately, although the albedo is a very useful Percentage of diffusely reflected sun light in
first approximation. relation to various surface conditions of the Earth

The albedo is an important concept in climatology and astronomy, as


well as in computer graphics and computer vision. The average overall albedo of Earth, its planetary albedo, is 30 to
35%, because of the covering by clouds, but varies widely locally across the surface, depending on the geological
and environmental features.[1]
The term is derived from Latin albedo "whiteness", in turn from albus "white", and was introduced into optics by
Johann Heinrich Lambert in his 1760 work Photometria.

Terrestrial albedo
Albedo 119

Sample albedos
Surface Typical
albedo

Fresh asphalt [2]


0.04

Worn asphalt [2]


0.12

Conifer forest [3] [4]


0.08, 0.09 to 0.15
(Summer)

Deciduous trees 0.15 to 0.18[4]

Bare soil [5]


0.17

Green grass [5]


0.25

Desert sand [6]


0.40

New concrete [5]


0.55

Ocean Ice [5]


0.5–0.7

Fresh snow [5]


0.80–0.90

Albedos of typical materials in visible light range from up to 0.9 for fresh snow, to about 0.04 for charcoal, one of
the darkest substances. Deeply shadowed cavities can achieve an effective albedo approaching the zero of a black
body. When seen from a distance, the ocean surface has a low albedo, as do most forests, while desert areas have
some of the highest albedos among landforms. Most land areas are in an albedo range of 0.1 to 0.4.[7] The average
albedo of the Earth is about 0.3.[8] This is far higher than for the ocean primarily because of the contribution of
clouds.
Human activities have changed the albedo (via forest clearance and farming, for example) of various areas around
the globe. However, quantification of this effect on the global scale is difficult.
The classic example of albedo effect is the snow-temperature feedback. If a snow-covered area warms and the snow
melts, the albedo decreases, more sunlight is absorbed, and the temperature tends to increase. The converse is true: if
snow forms, a cooling cycle happens. The intensity of the albedo effect depends on the size of the change in albedo
and the amount of insolation; for this reason it can be potentially very large in the tropics.
Albedo 120

The Earth's surface albedo is regularly estimated via Earth


observation satellite sensors such as NASA's MODIS instruments
onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. As the total amount of
reflected radiation cannot be directly measured by satellite, a
mathematical model of the BRDF is used to translate a sample set
of satellite reflectance measurements into estimates of
directional-hemispherical reflectance and bi-hemispherical
reflectance. (e. g., .[9] )

The Earth's average surface temperature due to its albedo and the
greenhouse effect is currently about 15°C. For the frozen (more
reflective) planet the average temperature is below -40°C[10] (If
only all continents being completely covered by glaciers - the
[11]
mean temperature is about 0°C ). The simulation for (more
absorptive) aquaplanet shows the average temperature close to
2003-2004 mean annual clear sky and total sky albedo 27°C.[12]

White-sky and black-sky albedo


It has been shown that for many applications involving terrestrial albedo, the albedo at a particular solar zenith angle
can reasonably be approximated by the proportionate sum of two terms: the directional-hemispherical reflectance
at that solar zenith angle, , and the bi-hemispherical reflectance, the proportion concerned being defined
as the proportion of diffuse illumination .
Albedo can then be given as:

Directional-hemispherical reflectance is sometimes referred to as black-sky albedo and bi-hemispherical reflectance


as white sky albedo. These terms are important because they allow the albedo to be calculated for any given
illumination conditions from a knowledge of the intrinsic properties of the surface.[13]

Astronomical albedo
The albedos of planets, satellites and asteroids can be used to infer much about their properties. The study of
albedos, their dependence on wavelength, lighting angle ("phase angle"), and variation in time comprises a major
part of the astronomical field of photometry. For small and far objects that cannot be resolved by telescopes, much of
what we know comes from the study of their albedos. For example, the absolute albedo can indicate the surface ice
content of outer solar system objects, the variation of albedo with phase angle gives information about regolith
properties, while unusually high radar albedo is indicative of high metallic content in asteroids.
Enceladus, a moon of Saturn, has one of the highest known albedos of any body in the Solar system, with 99% of
EM radiation reflected. Another notable high albedo body is Eris, with an albedo of 0.86. Many small objects in the
outer solar system[14] and asteroid belt have low albedos down to about 0.05.[15] A typical comet nucleus has an
albedo of 0.04.[16] Such a dark surface is thought to be indicative of a primitive and heavily space weathered surface
containing some organic compounds.
The overall albedo of the Moon is around 0.12, but it is strongly directional and non-Lambertian, displaying also a
strong opposition effect.[17] While such reflectance properties are different from those of any terrestrial terrains, they
are typical of the regolith surfaces of airless solar system bodies.
Albedo 121

Two common albedos that are used in astronomy are the (V-band) geometric albedo (measuring brightness when
illumination comes from directly behind the observer) and the Bond albedo (measuring total proportion of
electromagnetic energy reflected). Their values can differ significantly, which is a common source of confusion.
In detailed studies, the directional reflectance properties of astronomical bodies are often expressed in terms of the
five Hapke parameters which semi-empirically describe the variation of albedo with phase angle, including a
characterization of the opposition effect of regolith surfaces.
The correlation between astronomical (geometric) albedo, absolute magnitude and diameter is:[18]

where is the astronomical albedo, is the diameter in kilometres, and H is the absolute magnitude.

Examples of terrestrial albedo effects

The tropics
Although the albedo-temperature effect is best known in colder regions on Earth, because more snow falls there, it is
actually much stronger in tropical regions which receive consistently more sunlight.

Small scale effects


Albedo works on a smaller scale, too. People who wear dark clothes in the summertime put themselves at a greater
risk of heatstroke than those who wear lighter color clothes.[19]

Trees
Because trees tend to have a low albedo, removing forests would tend to increase albedo and thereby could produce
localized climate cooling (ignoring the lost evaporative cooling effect of trees). Cloud feedbacks further complicate
the issue. In seasonally snow-covered zones, winter albedos of treeless areas are 10% to 50% higher than nearby
forested areas because snow does not cover the trees as readily. Deciduous trees have an albedo value of about 0.15
to 0.18 while coniferous trees have a value of about 0.09 to 0.15.[4]
Studies by the Hadley Centre have investigated the relative (generally warming) effect of albedo change and
(cooling) effect of carbon sequestration on planting forests. They found that new forests in tropical and midlatitude
areas tended to cool; new forests in high latitudes (e.g. Siberia) were neutral or perhaps warming.[20]

Snow
Snow albedos can be as high as 0.9; this, however, is for the ideal example: fresh deep snow over a featureless
landscape. Over Antarctica they average a little more than 0.8. If a marginally snow-covered area warms, snow tends
to melt, lowering the albedo, and hence leading to more snowmelt (the ice-albedo positive feedback). Cryoconite,
powdery windblown dust containing soot, sometimes reduces albedo on glaciers and ice sheets.[21]

Water
Water reflects light very differently from typical terrestrial materials. The reflectivity of a water surface is calculated
using the Fresnel equations (see graph).
Albedo 122

At the scale of the wavelength of light even wavy water


is always smooth so the light is reflected in a locally
specular manner (not diffusely). The glint of light off
water is a commonplace effect of this. At small angles
of incident light, waviness results in reduced
reflectivity because of the steepness of the
reflectivity-vs.-incident-angle curve and a locally
increased average incident angle.[22]

Although the reflectivity of water is very low at low


and medium angles of incident light, it increases
tremendously at high angles of incident light such as
occur on the illuminated side of the Earth near the
Reflectivity of smooth water at 20 C (refractive index=1.333)
terminator (early morning, late afternoon and near the
poles). However, as mentioned above, waviness causes
an appreciable reduction. Since the light specularly reflected from water does not usually reach the viewer, water is
usually considered to have a very low albedo in spite of its high reflectivity at high angles of incident light.

Note that white caps on waves look white (and have high albedo) because the water is foamed up, so there are many
superimposed bubble surfaces which reflect, adding up their reflectivities. Fresh ‘black’ ice exhibits Fresnel
reflection.

Clouds
Cloud albedo is an important factor in the global warming effect. Different types of clouds exhibit different
reflectivity, theoretically ranging in albedo from a minimum of near 0 to a maximum approaching 0.8. "On any given
day, about half of Earth is covered by clouds, which reflect more sunlight than land and water. Clouds keep Earth
cool by reflecting sunlight, but they can also serve as blankets to trap warmth."[23]
Albedo and climate in some areas are affected by artificial clouds, such as those created by the contrails of heavy
commercial airliner traffic.[24] A study following the burning of the Kuwaiti oil fields during Iraqi occupation
showed that temperatures under the burning oil fires were as much as 10oC colder than temperatures several miles
away under clear skies.[25]

Aerosol effects
Aerosols (very fine particles/droplets in the atmosphere) have both direct and indirect effects on the Earth’s radiative
balance. The direct (albedo) effect is generally to cool the planet; the indirect effect (the particles act as cloud
condensation nuclei and thereby change cloud properties) is less certain.[26] As per [27] the effects are:
• Aerosol direct effect. Aerosols directly scatter and absorb radiation. The scattering of radiation causes
atmospheric cooling, whereas absorption can cause atmospheric warming.
• Aerosol indirect effect. Aerosols modify the properties of clouds through a subset of the aerosol population
called cloud condensation nuclei. Increased nuclei concentrations lead to increased cloud droplet number
concentrations, which in turn leads to increased cloud albedo, increased light scattering and radiative cooling
(first indirect effect), but also leads to reduced precipitation efficiency and increased lifetime of the cloud
(second indirect effect).
Albedo 123

Black carbon
Another albedo-related effect on the climate is from black carbon particles. The size of this effect is difficult to
quantify: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that the global mean radiative forcing for black
carbon aerosols from fossil fuels is +0.2 W m−2, with a range +0.1 to +0.4 W m−2.[28]

Other types of albedo


Single scattering albedo is used to define scattering of electromagnetic waves on small particles. It depends on
properties of the material (refractive index); the size of the particle or particles; and the wavelength of the incoming
radiation.
Albedo also refers to the white, spongy inner lining of a citrus fruit rind.[29] According to Dr. Renee M. Goodrich,
associate professor of food science and human nutrition at the University of Florida, the albedo is rich in the soluble
fiber pectin and contains vitamin C.

References
[1] Environmental Encyclopedia, 3rd ed., Thompson Gale, 2003, ISBN 0-7876-5486-8
[2] Pon, Brian (1999-06-30). "Pavement Albedo" (http:/ / eetd. lbl. gov/ HeatIsland/ Pavements/ Albedo/ ). Heat Island Group. . Retrieved
2007-08-27.
[3] Alan K. Betts, John H. Ball (1997). "Albedo over the boreal forest" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 1997/ 96JD03876. shtml). Journal
of Geophysical 102 (D24): 28,901–28,910. Bibcode 1997JGR...10228901B. doi:10.1029/96JD03876. . Retrieved 2007-08-27.
[4] "The Climate System" (http:/ / www. ace. mmu. ac. uk/ Resources/ gcc/ 1-3-3. html). Manchester Metropolitan University. . Retrieved
2007-11-11.
[5] Tom Markvart, Luis CastaŁżer (2003). Practical Handbook of Photovoltaics: Fundamentals and Applications. Elsevier.
ISBN 1-85617-390-9.
[6] Tetzlaff, G. (1983). Albedo of the Sahara. pp. 60–63.
[7] Albedo - from Eric Weisstein's World of Physics (http:/ / scienceworld. wolfram. com/ physics/ Albedo. html)
[8] Goode, P. R.; et al. (2001). "Earthshine Observations of the Earth’s Reflectance" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ ABS/ 2001/
2000GL012580. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 28 (9): 1671–1674. Bibcode 2001GeoRL..28.1671G. doi:10.1029/2000GL012580. .
[9] "MODIS BRDF/Albedo Product: Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document, Version 5.0" (http:/ / modis. gsfc. nasa. gov/ data/ atbd/
atbd_mod09. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-06-02.
[10] "Snowball Earth: Ice thickness on the tropical ocean" (http:/ / www. atmos. washington. edu/ ~sgw/ PAPERS/ 2002_Snowball. pdf). .
Retrieved 2009-09-20.
[11] "Effect of land albedo, CO2, orography, and oceanic heat transport on extreme climates" (http:/ / www. clim-past. net/ 2/ 31/ 2006/
cp-2-31-2006. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-09-20.
[12] "Global climate and ocean circulation on an aquaplanet ocean-atmosphere general circulation model" (http:/ / www. mpimet. mpg. de/
fileadmin/ staff/ smithrobin/ IC_JClim-final. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-09-20.
[13] Roman, M. O.; C.B. Schaaf, P. Lewis, F. Gao, G.P. Anderson, J.L. Privette, A.H. Strahler, C.E. Woodcock, and M. Barnsley (2010).
"Assessing the Coupling between Surface Albedo derived from MODIS and the Fraction of Diffuse Skylight over Spatially-Characterized
Landscapes". Remote Sensing of Environment 114: 738–760. doi:10.1016/j.rse.2009.11.014.
[14] Wm. Robert Johnston (2008-09-17). "TNO/Centaur diameters and albedos" (http:/ / www. johnstonsarchive. net/ astro/ tnodiam. html).
Johnston's Archive. . Retrieved 2008-10-17.
[15] Wm. Robert Johnston (2003-06-28). "Asteroid albedos: graphs of data" (http:/ / www. johnstonsarchive. net/ astro/ astalbedo. html).
Johnston's Archive. . Retrieved 2008-06-16.
[16] Robert Roy Britt (2001-11-29). "Comet Borrelly Puzzle: Darkest Object in the Solar System" (http:/ / www. space. com/ scienceastronomy/
solarsystem/ borrelly_dark_011129. html). Space.com. . Retrieved 2008-10-26.
[17] Medkeff, Jeff (2002). "Lunar Albedo" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20080523151225/ http:/ / jeff. medkeff. com/ astro/ lunar/ obs_tech/
albedo. htm). Archived from the original (http:/ / jeff. medkeff. com/ astro/ lunar/ obs_tech/ albedo. htm) on 23 May 2008. . Retrieved 5 July
2010
[18] Dan Bruton. "Conversion of Absolute Magnitude to Diameter for Minor Planets" (http:/ / www. physics. sfasu. edu/ astro/ asteroids/
sizemagnitude. html). Department of Physics & Astronomy (Stephen F. Austin State University). . Retrieved 2008-10-07.
[19] Health and Safety: Be Cool! (August 1997) (http:/ / www. ranknfile-ue. org/ h& s0897. html)
[20] Betts, R.A. (2000) Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal forestation by decreases in surface albedo, Nature, Volume 408, Issue
6809, pp. 187-190.
[21] "Changing Greenland - Melt Zone" (http:/ / ngm. nationalgeographic. com/ 2010/ 06/ melt-zone/ jenkins-text/ 3) page 3, of 4, article by
Mark Jenkins in National Geographic June, 2010, accessed July 8, 2010
Albedo 124

[22] (http:/ / vih. freeshell. org/ pp/ 01-ONW-St. Petersburg/ Fresnel. pdf)
[23] Baffled Scientists Say Less Sunlight Reaching Earth | LiveScience (http:/ / www. livescience. com/ environment/ 060124_earth_albedo.
html)
[24] http:/ / facstaff. uww. edu/ travisd/ pdf/ jetcontrailsrecentresearch. pdf
[25] The Kuwait oil fires as seen by Landsat (http:/ / adsabs. harvard. edu/ abs/ 1992JGR. . . . 9714565C)
[26] Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 231. htm#671)
[27] DOMINICK V. SPRACKLEN, BORIS BONN, AND KENNETH S. CARSLAW. 2008. Boreal forests, aerosols and the impacts on clouds
and climate. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0201. http:/ / homepages. see. leeds. ac. uk/ ~eardvs/ papers/ spracklen08c. pdf
[28] Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 233. htm)
[29] wordsmith.org

External links
• www.albedo-project.org - Official Website of Albedo Project (http://www.albedo-project.org/)
• Albedo - Encyclopedia of Earth (http://www.eoearth.org/article/Albedo)
• NASA MODIS Terra BRDF/albedo product site (http://lpdaac.usgs.gov/modis/mod43b1.asp)
• NASA MODIS BRDF/albedo product site (http://www-modis.bu.edu/brdf/product.html)
• Surface albedo derived from Meteosat observations (http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/Main/Access_to_Data/
Meteosat_Meteorological_Products/Product_List/SP_1125489019643?l=en)
• A discussion of Lunar albedos (http://jeff.medkeff.com/astro/lunar/obs_tech/albedo.htm)

Bond event
Bond events are North Atlantic climate fluctuations occurring
every ≈1,470 ± 500 years throughout the Holocene. Eight such
events have been identified, primarily from fluctuations in
ice-rafted debris. Bond events may be the interglacial relatives of
the glacial Dansgaard-Oeschger events, with a magnitude of
perhaps 15-20% of the glacial-interglacial temperature change.

The theory of 1,500-year climate cycles in the Holocene was


postulated by Gerard C. Bond of the Lamont-Doherty Earth
Observatory at Columbia University, mainly based on petrologic
tracers of drift ice in the North Atlantic.[1] [2]
The existence of climatic changes, possibly on a quasi-1,500 year cycle, is well established for the last glacial period
from ice cores. Less well established is the continuation of these cycles into the holocene. Bond et al. (1997) argue
for a cyclicity close to 1470 ± 500 years in the North Atlantic region, and that their results imply a variation in
Holocene climate in this region. In their view, many if not most of the Dansgaard-Oeschger events of the last ice age,
conform to a 1,500-year pattern, as do some climate events of later eras, like the Little Ice Age, the 8.2 kiloyear
event, and the start of the Younger Dryas.
The North Atlantic ice-rafting events happen to correlate with most weak events of the Asian monsoon over the past
9,000 years,[3] [4] as well as with most aridification events in the Middle East.[5] Also, there is widespread evidence
that a ≈1,500 yr climate oscillation caused changes in vegetation communities across all of North America.[6]
For reasons that are unclear, the only Holocene Bond event that has a clear temperature signal in the Greenland ice
cores is the 8.2 kyr event.
The hypothesis holds that the 1,500-year cycle displays nonlinear behavior and stochastic resonance; not every
instance of the pattern is a significant climate event, though some rise to major prominence in environmental
history.[7] Causes and determining factors of the cycle are under study; researchers have focused attention on
Bond event 125

variations in solar output, and "reorganizations of atmospheric circulation."[7] Bond events may also be correlated
with the 1800 year lunar tidal cycle. [8]

List of Bond events


Most Bond events do not have a clear climate signal; some correspond to periods of cooling, others are coincident
with aridification in some regions.
• ≈1,400 BP (Bond event 1) — roughly correlates with the Migration Period pessimum (450–900 AD)
• ≈2,800 BP (Bond event 2) — roughly correlates with the Iron Age Cold Epoch (900–300 BC)[9]
• ≈4,200 BP (Bond event 3) — correlates with the 4.2 kiloyear event (correlates also with the collapse of the
Akkadian Empire and the end of the Egyptian Old Kingdom)
• ≈5,900 BP (Bond event 4) — correlates with the 5.9 kiloyear event (correlates with the end of the Pre Pottery
Neolithic B, and the arrival of nomadic pastoralists in the Middle East)
• ≈8,100 BP (Bond event 5) — correlates with the 8.2 kiloyear event
• ≈9,400 BP (Bond event 6) — correlates with the Erdalen event of glacier activity in Norway,[10] as well as with a
cold event in China.[11]
• ≈10,300 BP (Bond event 7) — unnamed event (correlates with the beginnings of grain agriculture in the Middle
East)
• ≈11,100 BP (Bond event 8) — coincides with the transition from the Younger Dryas to the boreal

References
[1] Bond, G.; et al. (1997). "A Pervasive Millennial-Scale Cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and Glacial Climates" (http:/ / rivernet. ncsu. edu/
courselocker/ PaleoClimate/ Bond et al. , 1997 Millenial Scale Holocene Change. pdf). Science 278 (5341): 1257–1266.
doi:10.1126/science.278.5341.1257. .
[2] Bond, G.; et al. (2001). "Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene". Science 294 (5549): 2130–2136.
doi:10.1126/science.1065680. PMID 11739949.
[3] Gupta, Anil K.; Anderson, David M.; Overpeck, Jonathan T. (2003). "Abrupt changes in the Asian southwest monsoon during the Holocene
and their links to the North Atlantic Ocean". Nature 421 (6921): 354–357. doi:10.1038/nature01340. PMID 12540924.
[4] Yongjin Wang; et al. (2005). "The Holocene Asian Monsoon: Links to Solar Changes and North Atlantic Climate". Science 308 (5723):
854–857. doi:10.1126/science.1106296. PMID 15879216.
[5] Parker, Adrian G.; et al. (2006). "A record of Holocene climate change from lake geochemical analyses in southeastern Arabia" (http:/ /
www. gulfnexus. org/ articles/ geo/ 2006a Parker et al. pdf). Quaternary Research 66 (3): 465–476. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2006.07.001. .
[6] Viau, André E.; et al. (2002). "Widespread evidence of 1,500 yr climate variability in North America during the past 14 000 yr". Geology 30
(5): 455–458. doi:10.1130/0091-7613(2002)030<0455:WEOYCV>2.0.CO;2.
[7] Cox, John D. (2005). Climate Crash: Abrupt Climate Change and What It Means for Our Future. Washington DC: Joseph Henry Press.
pp. 150–155. ISBN 0309093120.
[8] Keeling, Charles; Whorf, TP (2000). "The 1,800-Year Oceanic Tidal Cycle: A Possible Cause of Rapid Climate Change". Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 97 (8): 3814–3819. doi:10.1073/pnas.070047197. JSTOR 122066. PMC 18099.
PMID 10725399.
[9] Swindles, Graeme T.; Plunkett, Gill; Roe, Helen M. (2007). "A delayed climatic response to solar forcing at 2800 cal. BP: multiproxy
evidence from three Irish peatlands". The Holocene 17 (2): 177–182. doi:10.1177/0959683607075830.
[10] Dahl, Svein Olaf; et al. (2002). "Timing, equilibrium-line altitudes and climatic implications of two early-Holocene glacier readvances
during the Erdalen Event at Jostedalsbreen, western Norway". The Holocene 12 (1): 17–25. doi:10.1191/0959683602hl516rp.
[11] Zhou Jing; Wang Sumin; Yang Guishan; Xiao Haifeng (2007). "Younger Dryas Event and Cold Events in Early-Mid Holocene: Record
from the sediment of Erhai Lake" (http:/ / www. climatechange. cn/ qikan/ manage/ wenzhang/ 08. pdf). Advances in Climate Change
Research 3 (Suppl.): 1673–1719. .
Glacial period 126

Glacial period
A glacial period (or alternatively glacial or glaciation) is an interval of time (thousands of years) within an ice age
that is marked by colder temperatures and glacier advances. Interglacials, on the other hand, are periods of warmer
climate within an ice age. The last glacial period ended about 15,000 years ago;[1] The Holocene epoch is the current
interglacial.

Quaternary ice age


Within the Quaternary glaciation (2.58 Ma
to present), there have been a number of
glacials and interglacials.
In the British Isles the Pleistocene extent of
the Quaternary ice age, has been subdivided
into the following stages and superstages.
• Preludhamian
• Ludhamian
• Thurnian
• Antian
• Bramertonian
• Prepastonian
• Pastonian
• Beestonian (glacial) Glacial and interglacial cycles of the late Pleistocene epoch within the Quaternary
• Cromerian glaciation, as represented by atmospheric CO2, measured from ice core samples
going back 650,000 years. The stage names are part of the North American and the
• Anglian (glacial)
European Alpine subdivisions. The correlation between both subdivisions is
• Hoxnian tentative.
• Wolstonian (glacial)
• Ipswichian
• Devensian (glacial)
The Cromerian consists of multiple glacial and interglacial periods. Other stages, the Anglian and Hoxnian, consist
either of single glacial or interglacial periods. This subdivision is valid for the British Isles and hence has a local
significance. Other areas have different subdivisions that partly correlate with the British subdivision.

Last glacial period


The last glacial period was the most recent glacial period within the current ice age, occurring in the Pleistocene
epoch, which began about 70,000 and ended about 15,000 years ago. The glaciations that occurred during this glacial
period covered many areas of the Northern Hemisphere, and have different names, depending on their geographic
distributions: Wisconsin (in North America), Devensian (in the British Isles), Midlandian (in Ireland), Würm (in the
Alps), Weichsel (in northern central Europe) and Llanquihue in Chile. The glacial advance reached its maximum
extent about 18,000 BP. In Europe, the ice sheet reached northern Germany.
Glacial period 127

Next glacial period


Since orbital variations are predictable,[2] if one has a model that relates orbital variations to climate, it is possible to
run such a model forward to "predict" future climate. Two caveats are necessary: that anthropogenic effects (global
warming) are likely to exert a larger influence over the short term; and that the mechanism by which orbital forcing
influences climate is not well understood.
Work by Berger and Loutre suggests that the current warm climate may last another 50,000 years.[3]

References
[1] J. Severinghaus, E. Brook (1999). "Abrupt Climate Change at the End of the Last Glacial Period Inferred from Trapped Air in Polar Ice"
(http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ short/ 286/ 5441/ 930). Science 286 (5441): 930–4. doi:10.1126/science.286.5441.930.
PMID 10542141. .
[2] F. Varadi, B. Runnegar, M. Ghil (2003). "Successive Refinements in Long-Term Integrations of Planetary Orbits" (http:/ / astrobiology. ucla.
edu/ OTHER/ SSO/ SolarSysInt. pdf). The Astrophysical Journal 592: 620–630. Bibcode 2003ApJ...592..620V. doi:10.1086/375560. .
[3] Berger A, Loutre MF (2002). "Climate: An exceptionally long interglacial ahead?". Science 297 (5585): 1287–8.
doi:10.1126/science.1076120. PMID 12193773.

Global cooling
Global cooling was a conjecture during the 1970s of imminent cooling
of the Earth's surface and atmosphere along with a posited
commencement of glaciation. This hypothesis had mixed support in the
scientific community, but gained temporary popular attention due to a
combination of press reports that did not accurately reflect the
scientific understanding of ice age cycles, and a slight downward trend
of temperatures from the 1940s to the early 1970s. In contrast to the
global cooling conjecture, the current scientific opinion on climate
Mean temperature anomalies during the period
change is that the Earth has not durably cooled, but undergone global
1965 to 1975 with respect to the average
warming throughout the twentieth century.[1] temperatures from 1937 to 1946. This dataset was
not available at the time.

Introduction: general awareness and concern


In the 1970s there was increasing awareness that estimates of global temperatures showed cooling since 1945. Of
those scientific papers considering climate trends over the 21st century, only 10% inclined towards future cooling,
while most papers predicted future warming.[2] The general public had little awareness of carbon dioxide's effects on
climate, but Science News in May 1959 forecast a 25% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide in the 150 years from
1850 to 2000, with a consequent warming trend.[3] The actual increase in this period was 29%. Paul R. Ehrlich
mentioned climate change from greenhouse gases in 1968.[4] By the time the idea of global cooling reached the
public press in the mid-1970s temperatures had stopped falling, and there was concern in the climatological
community about carbon dioxide's warming effects.[5] In response to such reports, the World Meteorological
Organization issued a warning in June 1976 that a very significant warming of global climate was probable.[6]
Currently there are some concerns about the possible cooling effects of a slowdown or shutdown of thermohaline
circulation, which might be provoked by an increase of fresh water mixing into the North Atlantic due to glacial
melting. The probability of this occurring is generally considered to be very low, and the IPCC notes, "even in
models where the THC weakens, there is still a warming over Europe. For example, in all AOGCM integrations
Global cooling 128

where the radiative forcing is increasing, the sign of the temperature change over north-west Europe is positive."[7]

Physical mechanisms
The cooling period is well reproduced by current (1999 on) global climate models (GCMs) that include the physical
effects of sulphate aerosols, and there is now general agreement that aerosol effects were the dominant cause of the
mid-20th century cooling. However, at the time there were two physical mechanisms that were most frequently
advanced to cause cooling: aerosols and orbital forcing.

Aerosols
Human activity — mostly as a by-product of fossil fuel combustion, partly by land use changes — increases the
number of tiny particles (aerosols) in the atmosphere. These have a direct effect: they effectively increase the
planetary albedo, thus cooling the planet by reducing the solar radiation reaching the surface; and an indirect effect:
they affect the properties of clouds by acting as cloud condensation nuclei.[8] In the early 1970s some speculated that
this cooling effect might dominate over the warming effect of the CO2 release: see discussion of Rasool and
Schneider (1971), below. As a result of observations and a switch to cleaner fuel burning, this no longer seems
likely; current scientific work indicates that global warming is far more likely. Although the temperature drops
foreseen by this mechanism have now been discarded in light of better theory and the observed warming, aerosols
are believed to have contributed a cooling tendency (outweighted by increases in greenhouse gases) and also have
contributed to "Global Dimming."

Orbital forcing
Orbital forcing refers to the slow, cyclical changes in the tilt of Earth's
axis and shape of its orbit. These cycles alter the total amount of
sunlight reaching the earth by a small amount and affect the timing and
intensity of the seasons. This mechanism is believed to be responsible
for the timing of the ice age cycles, and understanding of the
mechanism was increasing rapidly in the mid-1970s.

The seminal paper of Hays, Imbrie and Shackleton Variations in the


Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages qualified its predictions with
"forecasts must be qualified in two ways. First, they apply only to the CO2, temperature, and dust concentration
natural component of future climatic trends - and not to anthropogenic measured by Petit et al. from Vostok ice core at
effects such as those due to the burning of fossil fuels. Second, they Antarctica.

describe only the long-term trends, because they are linked to orbital
variations with periods of 20,000 years and longer. Climatic oscillations at higher frequencies are not predicted... the
results indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere
glaciation and cooler climate".[9]

The idea that ice ages cycles were predictable appears to have become conflated with the idea that another one was
due "soon" - perhaps because much of this study was done by geologists, who are accustomed to dealing with very
long time scales and use "soon" to refer to periods of thousands of years. A strict application of the Milankovitch
theory does not allow the prediction of a "rapid" ice age onset (i.e., less than a century or two) since the fastest
orbital period is about 20,000 years. Some creative ways around this were found, notably one championed by Nigel
Calder under the name of "snowblitz", but these ideas did not gain wide acceptance.
It is common to see it asserted that the length of the current interglacial temperature peak is similar to the length of
the preceding interglacial peak (Sangamon/Eem), and from this conclude that we might be nearing the end of this
warm period. This conclusion is supported by the fact that the lengths of previous interglacials were regular; see
Global cooling 129

appended figure. Petit et al. note that "Interglacials 5.5 and 9.3 are different from the Holocene, but similar to each
other in duration, shape and amplitude."[10] During each of these two events, there is a warm period of 4000 years
followed by a relatively rapid cooling. As an objection, the future orbital variations will not closely resemble those
of the past.

Concern in the mid-twentieth century

Pre-1970s
At a conference on climate change held in Boulder, Colorado in 1965, evidence supporting Milankovitch cycles
triggered speculation on how the calculated small changes in sunlight might somehow trigger ice ages. In 1966
Cesare Emiliani predicted that "a new glaciation will begin within a few thousand years." In his 1968 book The
Population Bomb, Paul R. Ehrlich wrote "The greenhouse effect is being enhanced now by the greatly increased
level of carbon dioxide... [this] is being countered by low-level clouds generated by contrails, dust, and other
contaminants... At the moment we cannot predict what the overall climatic results will be of our using the
atmosphere as a garbage dump."[4]

1970s awareness

The temperature record as seen in 1975; compare with the next figure.

Instrumental record of global average temperatures.

Concern peaked in the early 1970s, partly because of the cooling trend then apparent (a cooling period began in
1945, and two decades of a cooling trend suggested a trough had been reached after several decades of warming),
and partly because much less was then known about world climate and causes of ice ages. Although there was a
cooling trend then, climate scientists were aware that predictions based on this trend were not possible - because the
trend was poorly studied and not understood (for example see reference[11] ). However in the popular press the
possibility of cooling was reported generally without the caveats present in the scientific reports.
In the 1970s the compilation of records to produce hemispheric, or global, temperature records had just begun.
A history of the discovery of global warming states that: While neither scientists nor the public could be sure in the
1970s whether the world was warming or cooling, people were increasingly inclined to believe that global climate
was on the move, and in no small way.[12]
In 1972 Emiliani warned "Man's activity may either precipitate this new ice age or lead to substantial or even total
melting of the ice caps..."[13] By 1972 a group of glacial-epoch experts at a conference agreed that "the natural end of
our warm epoch is undoubtedly near";[14] but the volume of Quaternary Research reporting on the meeting said that
"the basic conclusion to be drawn from the discussions in this section is that the knowledge necessary for
Global cooling 130

understanding the mechanism of climate change is still lamentably inadequate". Unless there were impacts from
future human activity, they thought that serious cooling "must be expected within the next few millennia or even
centuries"; but many other scientists doubted these conclusions.[15] [16]
In 1972, George Kukla and Robert Matthews, in a Science write-up of a conference, asked when and how the current
integlacial would end; concluding that "Global cooling and related rapid changes of environment, substantially
exceeding the fluctuations experienced by man in historical times, must be expected within the next few millennia or
even centuries."[17]

1970 SCEP report


The 1970 "Study of Critical Environmental Problems"[18] reported the possibility of warming from increased carbon
dioxide, but no concerns about cooling, setting a lower bound on the beginning of interest in "global cooling".

1971 paper on warming and cooling factors


There was a paper by S. Ichtiaque Rasool and Stephen H. Schneider, published in the journal Science in July 1971.
Titled "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate," the paper
examined the possible future effects of two types of human environmental emissions:
1. greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide;
2. particulate pollution such as smog, some of which remains suspended in the atmosphere in aerosol form for years.
Greenhouse gases were regarded as likely factors that could promote global warming, while particulate pollution
blocks sunlight and contributes to cooling. In their paper, Rasool and Schneider theorized that aerosols were more
likely to contribute to climate change in the foreseeable future than greenhouse gases, stating that quadrupling
aerosols could decrease the mean surface temperature (of Earth) by as much as 3.5 C. If sustained over a period of
several years, they calculated, such a temperature decrease could be sufficient to trigger an ice age.

1972 and 1974 National Science Board


The National Science Board's Patterns and Perspectives in Environmental Science report of 1972 discussed the
cyclical behavior of climate, and the understanding at the time that the planet was entering a phase of cooling after a
warm period. "Judging from the record of the past interglacial ages, the present time of high temperatures should be
drawing to an end, to be followed by a long period of considerably colder temperatures leading into the next glacial
age some 20,000 years from now."[19] But it also continued; "However, it is possible, or even likely, that human
interference has already altered the environment so much that the climatic pattern of the near future will follow a
different path."[19]
The Board's report of 1974, Science And The Challenges Ahead , continued on this theme. "During the last 20-30
years, world temperature has fallen, irregularly at first but more sharply over the last decade."[20] However
discussion of cyclic glacial periods does not feature in this report. Instead it is the role of man that is central to the
report's analysis. "The cause of the cooling trend is not known with certainty. But there is increasing concern that
man himself may be implicated, not only in the recent cooling trend but also in the warming temperatures over the
last century".[20] The report can not conclude whether carbon dioxide in warming, or agricultural and industrial
pollution in cooling, are factors in the recent climatic changes, noting; "Before such questions as these can be
resolved, major advances must be made in understanding the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere and oceans,
and in measuring and tracing particulates through the system."[21]
Global cooling 131

1975 National Academy of Sciences report


There also was a study by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences about issues that needed more research.[22] This
heightened interest in the fact that climate can change. The 1975 NAS report titled "Understanding Climate Change:
A Program for Action" did not make predictions, stating in fact that "we do not have a good quantitative
understanding of our climate machine and what determines its course. Without the fundamental understanding, it
does not seem possible to predict climate." Its "program for action" consisted simply of a call for further research,
because "it is only through the use of adequately calibrated numerical models that we can hope to acquire the
information necessary for a quantitative assessment of the climatic impacts."
The report further stated:
The climates of the earth have always been changing, and they will doubtless continue to do so in the future.
How large these future changes will be, and where and how rapidly they will occur, we do not know..
This is not consistent with claims like those of Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) that "the NAS
"experts" exhibited ... hysterical fears" in the 1975 report.[23]

1974 Time Magazine article


While these discussions were ongoing in scientific circles, other accounts appeared in the popular media. In their
June 24, 1974 issue, Time presented an article titled Another Ice Age? that noted "the atmosphere has been growing
gradually cooler for the past three decades" but noted that "Some scientists... think that the cooling trend may be only
temporary" [24]

1975 Newsweek article


An April 28, 1975 article in Newsweek magazine was titled [25] "The Cooling World", it pointed to "ominous signs
that the Earth's weather patterns have begun to change" and pointed to "a drop of half a degree [Fahrenheit] in
average ground temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere between 1945 and 1968." The article claimed "The
evidence in support of these predictions [of global cooling] has now begun to accumulate so massively that
meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it." The Newsweek article did not state the cause of cooling; it stated
that "what causes the onset of major and minor ice ages remains a mystery" and cited the NAS conclusion that "not
only are the basic scientific questions largely unanswered, but in many cases we do not yet know enough to pose the
key questions."
The article mentioned the alternative solutions of "melting the Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or
diverting Arctic rivers" but conceded these were not feasible. The Newsweek article concluded by criticizing
government leaders: "But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared to take the
simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing the variables of climatic uncertainty into economic projections
of future food supplies...The longer the planners (politicians) delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with
climatic change once the results become grim reality." The article emphasized sensational and largely unsourced
consequences - "resulting famines could be catastrophic", "drought and desolation," "the most devastating outbreak
of tornadoes ever recorded", "droughts, floods, extended dry spells, long freezes, delayed monsoons," "impossible
for starving peoples to migrate," "the present decline has taken the planet about a sixth of the way toward the Ice
Age."[25]
On October 23, 2006, Newsweek issued a correction, over 31 years after the original article, stating that it had been
"so spectacularly wrong about the near-term future" (though editor Jerry Adler claimed that 'the story wasn't "wrong"
in the journalistic sense of "inaccurate."').[26]
Global cooling 132

Other 1970s sources


In the late 1970s there were several popular books on the topic, including The Weather Conspiracy: The Coming of
the New Ice Age.[27]

1979 WMO conference


Later in the decade, at a WMO conference in 1979, F K Hare reported that:
Fig 8 shows [...] 1938 the warmest year. They [temperatures] have since fallen by about 0.4 °C. At the
end there is a suggestion that the fall ceased in about 1964, and may even have reversed.
Figure 9 challenges the view that the fall of temperature has ceased [...] the weight of evidence clearly
favours cooling to the present date [...] The striking point, however, is that interannual variability of
world temperatures is much larger than the trend [...] it is difficult to detect a genuine trend [...]
It is questionable, moreover, whether the trend is truly global. Calculated variations in the 5-year mean
air temperature over the southern hemisphere chiefly with respect to land areas show that temperatures
generally rose between 1943 and 1975. Since the 1960-64 period this rise has been strong [...] the
scattered SH data fail to support a hypothesis of continued global cooling since 1938. [p 65][28]

More recent climate cooling predictions

1980s
Concerns about nuclear winter arose in the early 1980s from several reports. Similar speculations have appeared over
effects due to catastrophes such as asteroid impacts and massive volcanic eruptions. A prediction that massive oil
well fires in Kuwait would cause significant effects on climate was quite incorrect.

1990s
The idea of a global cooling as the result of global warming was already proposed in the 1990s.[29] In 2003, the
Office of Net Assessment at the United States Department of Defense was commissioned to produce a study on the
likely and potential effects of a modern climate change, especially of a shutdown of thermohaline circulation.[30] The
study, conducted under ONA head Andrew Marshall, modelled its prospective climate change on the 8.2 kiloyear
event, precisely because it was the middle alternative between the Younger Dryas and the Little Ice Age. The study
caused controversy in the media when it was made public in 2004.[31] [32] However, scientists acknowledge that
“abrupt climate change initiated by GIS melting is not a realistic scenario for the 21st century.”.[33]

Present level of knowledge


Currently, the concern that cooler temperatures would continue, and perhaps at a faster rate, has been observed to be
incorrect by the IPCC.[7] More has to be learned about climate, but the growing records have shown that the cooling
concerns of 1975 have not been borne out.
As for the prospects of the end of the current interglacial (again, valid only in the absence of human perturbations): it
isn't true that interglacials have previously only lasted about 10,000 years; and Milankovitch-type calculations
indicate that the present interglacial would probably continue for tens of thousands of years naturally.[34] Other
estimates (Loutre and Berger, based on orbital calculations) put the unperturbed length of the present interglacial at
50,000 years.[35] Berger (EGU 2005 presentation) believes that the present CO2 perturbation will last long enough to
suppress the next glacial cycle entirely.
As the NAS report indicates, scientific knowledge regarding climate change was more uncertain than it is today. At
the time that Rasool and Schneider wrote their 1971 paper, climatologists had not yet recognized the significance of
Global cooling 133

greenhouse gases other than water vapor and carbon dioxide, such as methane, nitrous oxide, and
chlorofluorocarbons.[36] Early in that decade, carbon dioxide was the only widely studied human-influenced
greenhouse gas. The attention drawn to atmospheric gases in the 1970s stimulated many discoveries in future
decades. As the temperature pattern changed, global cooling was of waning interest by 1979.[28]

References
[1] "Summary for Policymakers" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-spm. pdf) (PDF). Climate Change 2007: The
Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007-02-05. . Retrieved 2007-02-02.
[2] Peterson, Thomas & Connolley, William & Fleck, John (September 2008). The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus (http:/
/ scienceblogs. com/ stoat/ Myth-1970-Global-Cooling-BAMS-2008. pdf). American Meteorological Society. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.
.
[3] "Science Past from the issue of May 9, 1959" (http:/ / www. sciencenews. org/ view/ generic/ id/ 43155/ title/
Science_Past_from_the_issue_of_May_9,_1959). Science News: p. 30. May 9, 2009. .
[4] Erlich, Paul. "Paul Erhlich on climate change in 1968" (http:/ / backseatdriving. blogspot. com/ 2005_07_01_backseatdriving_archive.
html#112148592454360291). Backseat driving. . Retrieved November 17, 2005.
[5] Schneider SH (November 1972). "Atmospheric particles and climate: can we evaluate the impact of mans activities?". Quaternary Research 2
(3): 425–35. doi:10.1016/0033-5894(72)90068-3. [ Precis (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ iceage/ quat_res_1972. html#schneider)
Lay summary].
[6] World's temperature likely to rise; The Times; 22 June 1976; pg 9; col A
[7] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/
357. htm). . Retrieved November 17, 2005.
[8] Rasool, S.I.; Schneider, S.H. (1971). "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate". Science
173 (3992): 138. doi:10.1126/science.173.3992.138. PMID 17739641.
[9] Hays, J.D.; Imbrie, J.; Shackleton, N.J. (1976). "Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages". Science 194 (4270): 1121.
doi:10.1126/science.194.4270.1121. PMID 17790893.
[10] Petit, J.R., et al. (1999). "Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica". Nature 399
(6735): 429–436. doi:10.1038/20859.
[11] Mason, B. J.. "QJRMS, 1976, p 473 (Symons Memorial Lecture)" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ iceage/ mason. 1976. html).
Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70s? No. . Retrieved November 17, 2005.
[12] Weart, Spencer. "The Modern Temperature Trend" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ 20ctrend. htm#L_0338). The Discovery of
Global Warming. . Retrieved November 17, 2005.
[13] Emiliani, Cesare (November 1972). "Quaternary hypsithermals". Quaternary Research 2 (3): 270–3. doi:10.1016/0033-5894(72)90047-6.
[14] Past Climate Cycles: Ice Age Speculations (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ cycles. htm#N_29_)
[15] Weart, Spencer. "Past Cycles: Ice Age Speculations" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ cycles. htm). The Discovery of Global
Warming. . Retrieved November 17, 2005.
[16] Kukla GJ, Matthews RK, Mitchell JM (November 1972). "Guest editorial: The end of the present interglacial". Quaternary Research 2 (3):
261–9. doi:10.1016/0033-5894(72)90046-4. [ Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70s? No (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/
iceage/ quat_res_1972. html) Lay summary].
[17] Kukla, G.J.; Matthews, R.K. (1972). "When Will the Present Interglacial End?". Science 178 (4057): 190–202.
doi:10.1126/science.178.4057.190. PMID 17789488.
[18] SCEP. "The 1970 SCEP report" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ iceage/ scep-1970. html). Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in
the '70s? No. . Retrieved November 17, 2005.
[19] Patterns and Perspectives in Environmental Science (Hardcover) (http:/ / www. archive. org/ details/ patternsperspect00nati). Report of the
National Science Board. Government Printing Office. 1972. pp. 55. . Retrieved July 15, 2008.
[20] Science and the challenges ahead : report of the National Science Board (http:/ / www. archive. org/ details/ sciencechallenge00nati).
Report of the National Science Board. Government Printing Office. 1974. pp. 24. . Retrieved July 18, 2008.
[21] Science and the challenges ahead : report of the National Science Board (http:/ / www. archive. org/ details/ sciencechallenge00nati).
Report of the National Science Board. Government Printing Office. 1974. pp. 25. . Retrieved July 18, 2008.
[22] U. S. National Academy of Sciences. "The 1975 US National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council Report" (http:/ / www.
wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ iceage/ nas-1975. html). Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70s? No. . Retrieved November 17, 2005.
[23] Singer, S. Fred. "Scientists add to heat over global warming" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20051119045242/ http:/ / sepp. org/ glwarm/
sciaddheat. html). Archived from the original (http:/ / sepp. org/ glwarm/ sciaddheat. html) on November 19, 2005. . Retrieved November 19,
2005.
[24] "Science: Another Ice Age?" (http:/ / www. time. com/ time/ magazine/ article/ 0,9171,944914,00. html). Time. June 24, 1974. .
[25] Peter Gwynne (April 28, 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek.
[26] Jerry Adler (October 23, 2006). "Remember Global Cooling?" (http:/ / www. newsweek. com/ id/ 72481). Newsweek. .
Global cooling 134

[27] Schneider, Stephen (December 29, 1977). "Against instant books" (http:/ / stephenschneider. stanford. edu/ Publications/ PDF_Papers/
Schneider1977. pdf). Nature 270 (22): 650. doi:10.1038/270650a0. .
[28] "World Climate Conference 1979" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ iceage/ wcc-1979. html). Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in
the '70s? No. . Retrieved November 17, 2005.
[29] Calvin, William H. (1998). "The great climate flip-flop" (http:/ / WilliamCalvin. com/ 1990s/ 1998AtlanticClimate. htm). The Atlantic
Monthly 281 (1): 47–64. .
[30] Schwartz, Peter; Randall, Doug (October 2003). An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National
Security (http:/ / www. grist. org/ pdf/ AbruptClimateChange2003. pdf). .
[31] Stripp, David (February 9, 2004). "The Pentagon's Weather Nightmare" (http:/ / money. cnn. com/ magazines/ fortune/ fortune_archive/
2004/ 02/ 09/ 360120/ index. htm). Fortune. .
[32] Townsend, Mark; Harris, Paul (2004-02-22). "Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/
environment/ 2004/ feb/ 22/ usnews. theobserver). The Observer (London). .
[33] Jungclaus, Johann H.; et al. (2006). "Will Greenland melting halt the thermohaline circulation?". Geophysical Research Letters 33: L17708.
doi:10.1029/2006GL026815.
[34] EPICA community members; Barbante, Carlo; Barnes, Piers R. F.; Marc Barnola, Jean; Bigler, Matthias; Castellano, Emiliano; Cattani,
Olivier; Chappellaz, Jerome et al. (June 10, 2004). "Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core". Nature 429 (6992): 623–8.
doi:10.1038/nature02599. PMID 15190344.
[35] Berger, A.; Loutre, M. F. (2002). "An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead?". Science 297 (5585): 1287–8. doi:10.1126/science.1076120.
PMID 12193773.
[36] Weart, Spencer. "Other Greenhouse Gases" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ othergas. htm). The Discovery of Global Warming. .
Retrieved November 17, 2005.

• Carslaw, K. S.. "The Climate Record: The Last Several Centuries and Last Several Decades. Is the Climate
Stable?" (http://www.env.leeds.ac.uk/envi2150/oldnotes/lecture7/lecture7.html). ENVI2150 Climate
Change: Scientific Issues. Retrieved November 17, 2005.
• unknown. "History of Continental Drift - Before Wegener" (http://www.bbm.me.uk/portsdown/
PH_061_History_a.htm). Retrieved November 17, 2005.
• http://tvnews.vanderbilt.edu/program.pl?ID=52903 Vanderbilt Television News Archive

External links
• Details historical presentation of Global Cooling in the popular media (http://www.businessandmedia.org/
specialreports/2006/fireandice/fireandice.asp)
• Discussion and quotes from various papers about the "1970s prediction of an imminent ice age" (http://www.
wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/)
• SCOPE 13 - The Global Carbon Cycle (http://www.icsu-scope.org/downloadpubs/scope13/foreword.html),
SCOPE, 1976.
• SCOPE 27 - Climate Impact Assessment (http://www.icsu-scope.org/downloadpubs/scope27/preface.html),
1984.
• "Another Ice Age?" (http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,944914,00.html). TIME. 1974-06-24.
• Chambers FM, Brain SA (2002). "Paradigm shifts in late-Holocene climatology?" (http://hol.sagepub.com/cgi/
content/abstract/12/2/239). The Holocene 12 (2): 239–249. doi:10.1191/0959683602hl540fa.
• http://www.saveportland.com/Climate/index.html - some newspaper scans
• http://www.climatemonitor.it/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/1974.pdf - CIA report from 1974
Atlantic multidecadal oscillation 135

Atlantic multidecadal oscillation


The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
(AMO) is a mode of variability occurring in
the North Atlantic Ocean and which has its
principal expression in the sea surface
temperature (SST) field. While there is
some support for this mode in models and in
historical observations, controversy exists
with regard to its amplitude, and in
particular, the attribution of sea surface
temperature change to natural or
anthropogenic causes, especially in tropical
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Timeseries, 1856–2009
Atlantic areas important for hurricane
development.

Definition
The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) was identified by Schlesinger and Ramankutty in 1994.[1]
The AMO signal is usually defined from the patterns of SST variability in the North Atlantic once any linear trend
has been removed. This detrending is intended to remove the influence of greenhouse gas-induced global warming
from the analysis. However, if the global warming signal is significantly non-linear in time (i.e. not just a smooth
increase), variations in the forced signal will leak into the AMO definition. Consequently, correlations with the
AMO index may alias effects of global warming.

Mechanisms
In models, AMO-like variability is associated with small changes in the North Atlantic branch of the Thermohaline
Circulation, however historical oceanic observations are not sufficient to associate the derived AMO index to present
day circulation anomalies.

Climate impacts worldwide


The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere, in particular,
North America and Europe such as North Eastern Brazilian and African Sahel rainfall and North American and
European summer climate. It is also associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is
reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes. It alternately obscures and exaggerates the global increase in
temperatures due to human-induced global warming [2] .
Recent research suggests that the AMO is related to the past occurrence of major droughts in the US Midwest and
the Southwest. When the AMO is in its warm phase, these droughts tend to be more frequent or prolonged. Two of
the most severe droughts of the 20th century occurred during the positive AMO between 1925 and 1965: The Dust
Bowl of the 1930s and the 1950s drought. Florida and the Pacific Northwest tend to be the opposite—warm AMO,
more rainfall.
Climate models suggest that a warm phase of the AMO strengthens the summer rainfall over India and Sahel and the
North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.[3] Paleoclimatologic studies have confirmed this pattern—increased rainfall
in AMO warmphase, decreased in cold phase—for the Sahel over the past 3,000 years.[4]
Atlantic multidecadal oscillation 136

Relation to Atlantic hurricanes


In viewing actual data on a short time horizon, sparse experience
would suggest the frequency of major hurricanes is not strongly
correlated with the AMO. During warm phases of the AMO, the
number of minor hurricanes (category 1 and 2) saw a modest
increase.[5] With full consideration of meteorological science, the
number of tropical storms that can mature into severe hurricanes is
much greater during warm phases of the AMO than during cool
phases, at least twice as many; the AMO is reflected in the frequency
Atlantic basin cyclone intensity by Accumulated
of severe Atlantic hurricanes.[2] The hurricane activity index is found
cyclone energy, timeseries 1895-2007
to be highly correlated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.[5] If
there is an increase in hurricane activity connected to global warming,
it is currently obscured by the AMO quasi-periodic cycle.[5] The AMO alternately obscures and exaggerates the
global increase in temperatures due to human-induced global warming.[2] Based on the typical duration of negative
and positive phases of the AMO, the current warm regime is expected to persist at least until 2015 and possibly as
late as 2035. Enfield et al. assume a peak around 2020.[6]

Florida rainfall
The AMO has a strong effect on Florida rainfall. Rainfall in central and south Florida becomes more plentiful when
the Atlantic is in its warm phase and droughts and wildfires are more frequent in the cool phase. As a result of these
variations, the inflow to Lake Okeechobee — the reservoir for South Florida’s water supply — changes by as much
as 40% between AMO extremes. In northern Florida the relationship begins to reverse — less rainfall when the
Atlantic is warm.

Periodicity and prediction of AMO shifts


There are only about 130–150 years of data based on instrument data which are too few samples for conventional
statistical approaches. With aid of multi –century proxy reconstruction, a longer period of 424 years was used by
Enfield and Cid–Serrano as an illustration of an approach as described in their paper called "The Probabilistic
Projection of Climate Risk".[7] Their histogram of zero crossing intervals from a set of five re-sampled and smoothed
version of Gray et al (2004) index together with the Maximum Likelihood Estimate gamma distribution fit to the
histogram, showed that the largest frequency of regime interval was around 10–20 year. The cumulative probability
for all intervals 20 years or less was about 70% [8]
There is no demonstrated predictability for when the AMO will switch, in any deterministic sense. Computer
models, such as those that predict El Niño, are far from being able to do this. Enfield and colleagues have calculated
the probability that a change in the AMO will occur within a given future time frame, assuming that historical
variability persists. Probabilistic projections [9] of this kind may prove to be useful for long-term planning in climate
sensitive applications, such as water management.
Assuming that the AMO continues with its quasi-cycle of roughly 70 years, the peak of the current warm phase
would be expected in c. 2020,[10] or based on its 50–90 year quasi-cycle, between 2000 and 2040 (after peaks in c.
1880 and c. 1950).[6]
Atlantic multidecadal oscillation 137

References
[1] Schlesinger, M. E. (1994). "An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65-70 years". Nature 367 (6465): 723–726.
Bibcode 1994Natur.367..723S. doi:10.1038/367723a0.
[2] "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Frequently Asked Questions about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation" (http:/ / www.
aoml. noaa. gov/ phod/ amo_faq. php).
[3] Zhang, R.; Delworth, T. L. (2006). "Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes". Geophys.
Res. Lett. 33: L17712. doi:10.1029/2006GL026267.
[4] Shanahan, T. M.; et al. (2009). "Atlantic Forcing of Persistent Drought in West Africa". Science 324 (5925): 377–380.
doi:10.1126/science.1166352. PMID 19372429.
[5] Chylek, P.; Lesins, G. (2008). "Multidecadal variability of Atlantic hurricane activity: 1851–2007". Journal of Geophysical Research 113:
D22106. doi:10.1029/2008JD010036
[6] Enfield, David B.; Cid-Serrano, Luis (2010). "Secular and multidecadal warmings in the North Atlantic and their relationships with major
hurricane activity". International Journal of Climatology 30 (2): 174–184. doi:10.1002/joc.1881
[7] http:/ / www. usclivar. org/ Newsletter/ Variations_V3N3/ Enfield. pdf
[8] For additional comments and citations see AMO, The Key Global Climate Indicator (http:/ / icecap. us/ images/ uploads/ amoarticlel. pdf).
[9] http:/ / www. aoml. noaa. gov/ phod/ d2m_shift/ index. php
[10] Curry, Judith A. (2008). "Potential Increased Hurricane Activity in a Greenhouse Warmed World". In MacCracken, Michael C.; Moore,
Frances; Topping, John C.. Sudden and disruptive climate change. London: Earthscan. pp. 29–38. ISBN 1844074781. "Assuming that the
AMO continues with a 70-year periodicity, the peak of the next cycle would be expected in 2020 (70 years after the previous 1950 peak)."

Further reading
• Andronova, N. G.; Schlesinger, M. E. (2000). "Causes of global temperature changes during the 19th and 20th
centuries" (http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2000/2000GL006109.shtml). Geophys. Res. Lett. 27:
2137–2140. doi:10.1029/2000GL006109.
• Delworth, T. L.; Mann, M. E. (2000). "Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern
Hemisphere". Climate Dynamics 16: 661–676. doi:10.1007/s003820000075.
• Enfield, D. B.; Mestas-Nunez, A. M.; Trimble, P. J. (2001). "The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its
relationship to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S." (http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2001/
2000GL012745.shtml). Geophys. Res. Lett. 28: 2077–2080. doi:10.1029/2000GL012745.
• Goldenberg, S. B.; et al. (2001). "The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications".
Science 293: 474–479. doi:10.1126/science.1060040. PMID 11463911.
• Gray, S. T.; et al. (2004). "A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567
A.D.". Geophys. Res. Lett. 31: L12205. doi:10.1029/2004GL019932.
• Hetzinger, Steffen; et al. (2008). "Caribbean coral tracks Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and past hurricane
activity". Geology 36 (1): 11–14. doi:10.1130/G24321A.1.
• Kerr, R. A. (2000). "A North Atlantic climate pacemaker for the centuries". Science 288 (5473): 1984–1986.
doi:10.1126/science.288.5473.1984. PMID 17835110.
• Kerr, R. A. (2005). "Atlantic climate pacemaker for millennia past, decades hence?". Science 309 (5731): 41–43.
doi:10.1126/science.309.5731.41.
• Knight, J. R. (2005). "A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate".
Geophys. Res. Lett. 32: L20708. doi:10.1029/2005GL024233.
• McCabe, G. J., G. J.; Palecki, M. A.; Betancourt, J. L. (2004). "Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on
multidecadal drought frequency in the United States". PNAS 101: 4136–4141. doi:10.1073/pnas.0306738101.
PMID 15016919.
• Sutton, R. T.; Hodson, L. R. (2005). "Atlantic forcing of North American and European summer climate". Science
309: 115–118. doi:10.1126/science.1109496. PMID 15994552.
• Knight, J. R.; C. K. Folland, and A. A. Scaife (2006). "Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation".
Geophys. Res. Lett. 33: L17706. doi:10.1029/2006GL026242.
• "Climate change: the next ten years" (http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19926691.
500-climate-change-the-next-ten-years.html) by Fred Pearce and Michael Le Page, New Scientist, 13 Aug. 2008,
Atlantic multidecadal oscillation 138

pp. 26–30.

External links
• Frequently asked questions about the AMO (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/amo_faq.php)
• Probabilistic projection of future AMO regime shifts (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/d2m_shift/index.
php)
• AMO Data from 1856 - Present (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/AMO/)

El Niño-Southern Oscillation
El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a
quasiperiodic climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific
Ocean with on average five year intervals. It is characterized by
variations in the temperature of the surface of the tropical eastern
Pacific Ocean—warming or cooling known as El Niño and La
Niña respectively—and air surface pressure in the tropical western
Pacific—the Southern Oscillation. The two variations are coupled:
the warm oceanic phase, El Niño, accompanies high air surface
pressure in the western Pacific, while the cold phase, La Niña,
accompanies low air surface pressure in the western Pacific.[2] [3]
Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study.

ENSO causes extreme weather (such as floods and droughts) in


many regions of the world. Developing countries dependent upon The 1997 El Niño observed by TOPEX/Poseidon. The
agriculture and fishing, particularly those bordering the Pacific white areas off the tropical coasts of South and North
[1]
America indicate the pool of warm water.
Ocean, are the most affected. In popular usage, the El
Niño-Southern Oscillation is often called just "El Niño". El Niño
is Spanish for "the boy" and refers to the Christ child, because periodic warming in the Pacific near South America is
usually noticed around Christmas.[4] The expression of ENSO is potentially subject to dramatic changes as a result of
global warming, and is a target for research in this regard.

Definition
El Niño is defined by prolonged differences in Pacific Ocean surface temperatures when compared with the average
value. The accepted definition is a warming or cooling of at least 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) averaged over the east-central
tropical Pacific Ocean. Typically, this anomaly happens at irregular intervals of 2–7 years and lasts nine months to
two years.[5] The average period length is 5 years. When this warming or cooling occurs for only seven to nine
months, it is classified as El Niño/La Niña "conditions"; when it occurs for more than that period, it is classified as
El Niño/La Niña "episodes".[6]
The first signs of an El Niño are:
1. Rise in surface pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia, and Australia
2. Fall in air pressure over Tahiti and the rest of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean
3. Trade winds in the south Pacific weaken or head east
4. Warm air rises near Peru, causing rain in the northern Peruvian deserts
5. Warm water spreads from the west Pacific and the Indian Ocean to the east Pacific. It takes the rain with it,
causing extensive drought in the western Pacific and rainfall in the normally dry eastern Pacific.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 139

El Niño's warm rush of nutrient-poor tropical water, heated by its eastward passage in the Equatorial Current,
replaces the cold, nutrient-rich surface water of the Humboldt Current. When El Niño conditions last for many
months, extensive ocean warming and the reduction in Easterly Trade winds limits upwelling of cold nutrient-rich
deep water and its economic impact to local fishing for an international market can be serious.[7]

Early stages and characteristics of El Niño


Although its causes are still being investigated, El Niño
events begin when trade winds, part of the Walker
circulation, falter for many months. A series of Kelvin
waves—relatively warm subsurface waves of water a
few centimetres high and hundreds of kilometres
wide—cross the Pacific along the equator and create a
pool of warm water near South America, where ocean
temperatures are normally cold due to upwelling. The
weakening of the winds can also create twin cyclones,
another sign of a future El Niño.[8] The Pacific Ocean is
a heat reservoir that drives global wind patterns, and
the resulting change in its temperature alters weather on
a global scale.[9] Rainfall shifts from the western
Pacific toward the Americas, while Indonesia and India
become drier.[10]

Jacob Bjerknes in 1969 helped toward an 5-day running mean of MJO. Note how it moves eastward with time.

understanding of ENSO, by suggesting that an


anomalously warm spot in the eastern Pacific can weaken the east-west temperature difference, disrupting trade
winds that push warm water to the west. The result is increasingly warm water toward the east.[11] Several
mechanisms have been proposed through which warmth builds up in equatorial Pacific surface waters, and is then
dispersed to lower depths by an El Niño event.[12] The resulting cooler area then has to "recharge" warmth for
several years before another event can take place.[13]

While not a direct cause of El Niño, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, propagates rainfall anomalies eastward
around the global tropics in a cycle of 30–60 days, and may influence the speed of development and intensity of El
Niño and La Niña in several ways.[14] For example, westerly flows between MJO-induced areas of low pressure may
cause cyclonic circulations north and south of the equator. When the circulations intensify, the westerly winds within
the equatorial Pacific can further increase and shift eastward, playing a role in El Niño development.[15]
Madden-Julian activity can also produce eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin waves, which may in turn be
influenced by a developing El Niño, leading to a positive feedback loop.[16]
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 140

Southern Oscillation
The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric
component of El Niño. This component is an
oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical
eastern and the western Pacific Ocean waters. The
strength of the Southern Oscillation is measured by
the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The SOI is
computed from fluctuations in the surface air pressure
difference between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia.[17]
El Niño episodes are associated with negative values
of the SOI, meaning that the pressure difference
between Tahiti and Darwin is relatively small.

Low atmospheric pressure tends to occur over warm Normal Pacific pattern. Equatorial winds gather warm water pool
toward west. Cold water upwells along South American coast. (NOAA
water and high pressure occurs over cold water, in
/ PMEL / TAO)
part because deep convection over the warm water
acts to transport air. El Niño episodes are defined as
sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This results in a decrease in the strength of the
Pacific trade winds, and a reduction in rainfall over eastern and northern Australia.

Walker circulation
During non-El Niño conditions, the Walker
circulation is seen at the surface as easterly trade
winds which move water and air warmed by the sun
towards the west. This also creates ocean upwelling
off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador and brings
nutrient-rich cold water to the surface, increasing
fishing stocks. The western side of the equatorial
Pacific is characterized by warm, wet low pressure
weather as the collected moisture is dumped in the
form of typhoons and thunderstorms. The ocean is
some 60 centimetres (24 in) higher in the western
Pacific as the result of this motion.[18] [19] [20] [21] El Niño Conditions. Warm water pool approaches South American
coast. Absence of cold upwelling increases warming.

Effects of ENSO's warm phase (El


Niño)

South America
Because El Niño's warm pool feeds thunderstorms above, it creates increased rainfall across the east-central and
eastern Pacific Ocean including several portions of the South American west coast. The effects of El Niño in South
America are direct
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 141

and stronger than in North America. An El Niño is


associated with warm and very wet weather months
April–October along the coasts of northern Peru and
Ecuador, causing major flooding whenever the event
is strong or extreme.[22] The effects during the months
of February, March and April may become critical.
Along the west coast of South America, El Niño
reduces the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water that
sustains large fish populations, which in turn sustain
abundant sea birds, whose droppings support the
fertilizer industry. This leads to fish kills offshore
Peru.[7] La Niña Conditions. Warm water is further west than usual.

The local fishing industry along the affected coastline can suffer during long-lasting El Niño events. The world's
largest fishery collapsed due to overfishing during the 1972 El Niño Peruvian anchoveta reduction. During the
1982–83 event, jack mackerel and anchoveta populations were reduced, scallops increased in warmer water, but
hake followed cooler water down the continental slope, while shrimp and sardines moved southward so some catches
decreased while others increased.[23] Horse mackerel have increased in the region during warm events. Shifting
locations and types of fish due to changing conditions provide challenges for fishing industries. Peruvian sardines
have moved during El Niño events to Chilean areas. Other conditions provide further complications, such as the
government of Chile in 1991 creating restrictions on the fishing areas for self-employed fishermen and industrial
fleets.
The ENSO variability may contribute to the great success of small fast-growing species along the Peruvian coast, as
periods of low population removes predators in the area. Similar effects benefit migratory birds that travel each
spring from predator-rich tropical areas to distant winter-stressed nesting areas.
Southern Brazil and northern Argentina also experience wetter than normal conditions but mainly during the spring
and early summer. Central Chile receives a mild winter with large rainfall, and the Peruvian-Bolivian Altiplano is
sometimes exposed to unusual winter snowfall events. Drier and hotter weather occurs in parts of the Amazon River
Basin, Colombia and Central America.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 142

North America
Winters, during the El Niño effect, are warmer and
drier than average in the Northwest, Northmidwest,
and Northmideast United States, and therefore those
regions experience reduced snowfalls. Meanwhile,
significantly wetter winters are present in northwest
Mexico and the southwest United States including
central and southern California, while both cooler and
wetter than average winters in northeast Mexico and
the southeast United States (including the Tidewater
region of Virginia) occur during the El Niño phase of
the oscillation.[24] [25]

In Canada, both warmer and drier winters (due to


forcing of the Polar Jet further north) over much of
the country occur, although less variation from normal
is seen in the Maritime Provinces. The following
summer is warmer and sometimes drier creating a
more active than average forest fire season over
Central/Eastern Canada. Some believed that the Regional impacts of warm ENSO episodes (El Niño).
ice-storm in January 1998, which devastated parts of
Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec, was caused or accentuated by El Niño's warming effects.[26] El Niño
warmed Vancouver for the 2010 Winter Olympics, such that the area experienced a subtropical-like winter during
the games.[27]

Summers, during the El Niño effect, are wetter than average in the Northwest, Northmidwest, Northmideast, and
mountain regions of the United States.
El Niño is credited with suppressing hurricanes and made the 2009 hurricane season the least active in twelve
years.[28] El Niño is also associated with increased wave-caused coastal erosion along the United States Pacific
Coast.
There is some evidence that El Niño activity is correlated with incidence of red tides off the Pacific coast of
California.

Tropical cyclones
Most tropical cyclones form on the side of the subtropical ridge closer to the equator, then move poleward past the
ridge axis before recurving into the main belt of the Westerlies.[29] When the subtropical ridge position shifts due to
El Niño, so will the preferred tropical cyclone tracks. Areas west of Japan and Korea tend to experience much fewer
September–November tropical cyclone impacts during El Niño and neutral years. During El Niño years, the break in
the subtropical ridge tends to lie near 130°E, which would favor the Japanese archipelago.[30] During El Niño years,
Guam's chance of a tropical cyclone impact is one-third of the long term average.[31] The tropical Atlantic ocean
experiences depressed activity due to increased vertical wind shear across the region during El Niño years.[32]
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 143

Elsewhere
In Africa, East Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania and the White Nile basin experiences, in the long rains from
March to May, wetter than normal conditions. There are also drier than normal conditions from December to
February in south-central Africa, mainly in Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana. Direct effects of El
Niño resulting in drier conditions occur in parts of Southeast Asia and Northern Australia, increasing bush fires and
worsening haze and decreasing air quality dramatically. Drier than normal conditions are also generally observed in
Queensland, inland Victoria, inland New South Wales and eastern Tasmania from June to August. West of the
Antarctic Peninsula, the Ross, Bellingshausen, and Amundsen Sea sectors have more sea ice during El Niño. The
latter two and the Weddell Sea also become warmer and have higher atmospheric pressure. El Niño's effects on
Europe are not entirely clear, but certainly it is not nearly as affected as at least large parts of other continents. There
is some evidence that an El Niño may cause a wetter, cloudier winter in Northern Europe and a milder, drier winter
in the Mediterranean Sea region. The El Niño winter of 2006/2007 was unusually mild in Europe, and the Alps
recorded very little snow coverage that season.[33]
Most recently, Singapore experienced the driest February in 2010 since records begins in 1869. With only 6.3
millimetres of rain fell in the month and temperatures hitting as high as 35 degrees Celsius on 26 February. 1968 and
2005 had the next driest Februaries when 8.4 mm of rain fell.[34]

Effects of ENSO's cool phase (La Niña)


La Niña is the name for the cold phase of
ENSO, during which the cold pool in the
eastern Pacific intensifies and the trade
winds strengthen. The name La Niña
originates from Spanish, meaning "the girl",
analogous to El Niño meaning "the boy". It
has also in the past been called anti-El Niño,
and El Viejo (meaning "the old man").[35]

Africa Sea surface skin temperature anomalies in November 2007 showing La Niña
conditions
La Niña results in wetter than normal
conditions in Southern Africa from
December to February, and drier than normal conditions over equatorial East Africa over the same period.[36]

Asia
During La Niña years, the formation of tropical cyclones, along with the subtropical ridge position, shifts westward
across the western Pacific ocean, which increases the landfall threat to China.[30] In March 2008, La Niña caused a
drop in sea surface temperatures over Southeast Asia by an amount of 2 °C. It also caused heavy rains over
Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia.[37]

South America
During a time of La Niña, drought plagues the coastal regions of Peru and Chile.[38] From December to February,
northern Brazil is wetter than normal.[38]
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 144

North America
La Niña causes mostly the opposite effects of El Niño.
La Niña causes above average precipitation across the
North Midwest, the Northern Rockies, Northern
California, and in the Pacific Northwest's southern
and eastern regions. Meanwhile there is below
average precipitation in the southwestern and
southeastern states.[39]

La Niñas occurred in 1904, 1908, 1910, 1916, 1924,


1928, 1938, 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975,
1988, 1995.[40]
In Canada, La Niña will generally cause a cooler,
snowier winter, such as the near record-breaking
amounts of snow recorded in the La Niña winter of
2007/2008 in Eastern Canada.[41]

Recent occurrences
There was a strong La Niña episode during Regional impacts of La Niña.
1988–1989. La Niña also formed in 1995, from
1998–2000, and a minor one from 2000–2001. Recently, an occurrence of El Niño started in September 2006[42] and
lasted until early 2007.[43] From June 2007 on, data indicated a moderate La Niña event, which strengthened in early
2008 and weakened by early 2009; the 2007–2008 La Niña event was the strongest since the 1988–1989 event. The
strength of the La Niña made the 2008 hurricane season one of the most active since 1944; there were 16 named
storms of at least 39 mph (63 km/h), eight of which became 74 mph (119 km/h) or greater hurricanes.[28]

According to NOAA, El Niño conditions were in place in the equatorial Pacific Ocean starting June 2009, peaking in
January–February. Positive SST anomalies (El Niño) lasted until May 2010. Since then, SST anomalies have been
negative (La Niña) and expected to stay negative for the next northern winter.[44]

Remote influence on tropical Atlantic Ocean


A study of climate records has shown that El Niño events in the equatorial Pacific are generally associated with a
warm tropical North Atlantic in the following spring and summer.[45] About half of El Niño events persist
sufficiently into the spring months for the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) to become unusually large in
summer.[46] Occasionally, El Niño's effect on the Atlantic Walker circulation over South America strengthens the
easterly trade winds in the western equatorial Atlantic region. As a result, an unusual cooling may occur in the
eastern equatorial Atlantic in spring and summer following El Niño peaks in winter.[47] Cases of El Niño-type events
in both oceans simultaneously have been linked to severe famines related to the extended failure of monsoon
rains.[48]
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 145

ENSO and global warming


During the last several decades the number of El Niño events increased, and the number of La Niña events
decreased.[49] The question is whether this is a random fluctuation or a normal instance of variation for that
phenomenon, or the result of global climate changes towards global warming.
The studies of historical data show that the recent El Niño variation is most likely linked to global warming. For
example, one of the most recent results is that even after subtracting the positive influence of decadal variation,
shown to be possibly present in the ENSO trend,[50] the amplitude of the ENSO variability in the observed data still
increases, by as much as 60% in the last 50 years.[51]
It is not certain what exact changes will happen to ENSO in the future: different models make different predictions
(cf.[52] ) It may be that the observed phenomenon of more frequent and stronger El Niño events occurs only in the
initial phase of the global warming, and then (e.g., after the lower layers of the ocean get warmer as well), El Niño
will become weaker than it was.[53] It may also be that the stabilizing and destabilizing forces influencing the
phenomenon will eventually compensate for each other.[] More research is needed to provide a better answer to that
question, but the current results do not completely exclude the possibility of dramatic changes. The ENSO is
considered to be a potential tipping element in Earth's climate.[54]

El Niño "Modoki" and Central-Pacific El Niño


The traditional Niño, also called Eastern Pacific (EP) El
Niño,[55] involves temperature anomalies in the Eastern Pacific.
However, in the last two decades non-traditional El Niños were
observed, in which the usual place of the temperature anomaly
(Nino 1 and 2) is not affected, but an anomaly arises in the
Map showing Nino3.4 and other index regions
central Pacific (Nino 3.4).[56] The phenomenon is called Central
Pacific (CP) El Niño,[55] "dateline" El Niño (because the
anomaly arises near the dateline), or El Niño "Modoki" (Modoki
is Japanese for "similar, but different").[57]

The effects of the CP El Niño are different from those of the


traditional EP El Niño—e.g., the new El Niño leads to more
hurricanes more frequently making landfall in the Atlantic.[58]
The recent discovery of El Niño Modoki has some scientists
believing it to be linked to global warming.[59] However,
Satellite data only goes back to 1979. More research must be Map of Atlantic major hurricanes during post-"Modoki"
done to find the correlation and study past El Niño episodes. seasons, including 1987, 1992, 1995, 2003 and 2005.

The first recorded El Niño that originated in the central Pacific


and moved towards the east was in 1986.[60]
A joint study by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration concluded that climate change may contribute to stronger El Niños. El Niño "Modoki" events
occurred in 1991-92, 1994–95, 2002–03, 2004–05 and 2009-10.[61] The strongest such Central Pacific El Niño event
known occurred in 2009-2010.[62]
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 146

Health Impact of El Niño


Extreme weather conditions related with the El Niño cycle are associated with changes in the incidence of epidemic
diseases. For example, the El Niño cycle is associated with increased risks of some of the diseases transmitted by
mosquitoes, such as malaria, dengue and Rift Valley fever. Cycles of malaria in India, Venezuela and Colombia have
now been linked to El Niño. Outbreaks of another mosquito-transmitted disease, Australian Encephalitis (Murray
Valley Encephalitis - MVE), occur in temperate south-east Australia after heavy rainfall and flooding, which are
associated with La Nina events. A severe outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurred after extreme rainfall in
north-eastern Kenya and southern Somalia during the 1997-98 El Niño.[63]

Cultural history and pre-historic information


ENSO conditions have occurred at two- to seven year intervals for
at least the past 300 years, but most of them have been weak.
There is also evidence for strong El Niño events during the early
Holocene epoch 10,000 years ago.[64]
El Niño affected pre-Columbian Incas [65] and may have led to the
demise of the Moche and other pre-Columbian Peruvian
cultures.[66] A recent study suggests that a strong El-Niño effect
between 1789–93 caused poor crop yields in Europe, which in turn
helped touch off the French Revolution.[67] The extreme weather
produced by El Niño in 1876–77 gave rise to the most deadly
famines of the 19th century.[68]

An early recorded mention of the term "El Niño" to refer to


climate occurs in 1892, when Captain Camilo Carrillo told the
Geographical society congress in Lima that Peruvian sailors
named the warm northerly current "El Niño" because it was most
noticeable around Christmas. The phenomenon had long been of
interest because of its effects on the guano industry and other
enterprises that depend on biological productivity of the sea.
Average equatorial Pacific temperatures
Charles Todd, in 1893, suggested that droughts in India and
Australia tended to occur at the same time; Norman Lockyer noted the same in 1904. An El Niño connection with
flooding was reported in 1895 by Pezet and Eguiguren. In 1924 Gilbert Walker (for whom the Walker circulation is
named) coined the term "Southern Oscillation".
The major 1982–83 El Niño led to an upsurge of interest from the scientific community. The period from 1990–1994
was unusual in that El Niños have rarely occurred in such rapid succession.[69] An especially intense El Niño event
in 1998 caused an estimated 16% of the world's reef systems to die. The event temporarily warmed air temperature
by 1.5 °C, compared to the usual increase of 0.25 °C associated with El Niño events.[70] Since then, mass coral
bleaching has become common worldwide, with all regions having suffered "severe bleaching".[71]
Major ENSO events were recorded in the years 1790–93, 1828, 1876–78, 1891, 1925–26, 1972–73, 1982–83, and
1997–98.[48]
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 147

References
[1] "Independent NASA Satellite Measurements Confirm El Niño is Back and Strong" (http:/ / www. jpl. nasa. gov/ news/ releases/ 97/ elninoup.
html). NASA/JPL. .
[2] Climate Prediction Center (2005-12-19). "Frequently Asked Questions about El Niño and La Niña" (http:/ / www. cpc. noaa. gov/ products/
analysis_monitoring/ ensostuff/ ensofaq. shtml#DIFFER). National Centers for Environmental Prediction. . Retrieved 2009-07-17.
[3] K.E. Trenberth, P.D. Jones, P. Ambenje, R. Bojariu , D. Easterling, A. Klein Tank, D. Parker, F. Rahimzadeh, J.A. Renwick, M. Rusticucci,
B. Soden and P. Zhai. "Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg1/ en/
ch3. html). In Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller. Climate Change 2007: The
Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Cambridge,UK: Cambridge University Press. pp. 235–336. .
[4] "El Niño Information" (http:/ / www. dfg. ca. gov/ marine/ elnino. asp). California Department of Fish and Game, Marine Region. .
[5] Climate Prediction Center (2005-12-19). "ENSO FAQ: How often do El Niño and La Niña typically occur?" (http:/ / www. cpc. noaa. gov/
products/ analysis_monitoring/ ensostuff/ ensofaq. shtml#HOWOFTEN). National Centers for Environmental Prediction. . Retrieved
2009-07-26.
[6] National Climatic Data Center (June 2009). "El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) June 2009" (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ oa/ climate/
research/ enso/ ?year=2009& month=6& submitted=true). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. . Retrieved 2009-07-26.
[7] WW2010 (1998-04-28). "El Niño" (http:/ / ww2010. atmos. uiuc. edu/ (Gh)/ guides/ mtr/ eln/ home. rxml). University of Illinois at
Urbana-Champaign. . Retrieved 2009-07-17.
[8] Tim Liu (2005-09-06). "El Niño Watch from Space" (http:/ / airsea-www. jpl. nasa. gov/ ENSO/ welcome. html). National Aeronautics and
Space Administration. . Retrieved 2010-05-31.
[9] Stewart, Robert (2009-01-06). "El Niño and Tropical Heat" (http:/ / oceanworld. tamu. edu/ resources/ oceanography-book/ heatbudgets.
htm). Our Ocean Planet: Oceanography in the 21st Century. Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University. . Retrieved 2009-07-25.
[10] Dr. Tony Phillips (2002-03-05). "A Curious Pacific Wave" (http:/ / science. nasa. gov/ headlines/ y2002/ 05mar_kelvinwave. htm). National
Aeronautics and Space Administration. . Retrieved 2009-07-24.
[11] Nova (1998). "1969" (http:/ / www. pbs. org/ wgbh/ nova/ elnino/ reach/ 1969. html). Public Broadcasting Service. . Retrieved 2009-07-24.
[12] De-Zheng Sun (2007). Nonlinear Dynamics in Geosciences: 29 The Role of El Niño—Southern Oscillation in Regulating its Background
State (http:/ / www. springerlink. com/ content/ r48078945n5w086v/ ). Springer. doi:10.1007/978-0-387-34918-3. ISBN 978-0-387-34917-6. .
Retrieved 2009-07-24.
[13] Soon-Il An and In-Sik Kang (2000). "A Further Investigation of the Recharge Oscillator Paradigm for ENSO Using a Simple Coupled
Model with the Zonal Mean and Eddy Separated" (http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ perlserv/ ?request=get-document& doi=10. 1175/
1520-0442(2000)013<1987:AFIOTR>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Climate 13 (11): 1987–93.
doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1987:AFIOTR>2.0.CO;2. ISSN 1520-0442. . Retrieved 2009-07-24.
[14] Jon Gottschalck and Wayne Higgins (2008-02-16). "Madden Julian Oscillation Impacts" (http:/ / www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/ products/
precip/ CWlink/ MJO/ MJO_1page_factsheet. pdf). Climate Prediction Center. . Retrieved 2009-07-24.
[15] Air-Sea Interaction & Climate (2005-09-06). "El Niño Watch from Space" (http:/ / airsea-www. jpl. nasa. gov/ ENSO/ welcome. html). Jet
Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology. . Retrieved 2009-07-17.
[16] Eisenman, Ian; Yu, Lisan; Tziperman, Eli (2005). "Westerly Wind Bursts: ENSO's Tail Rather than the Dog?". Journal of Climate 18 (24):
5224–38. doi:10.1175/JCLI3588.1.
[17] "Climate glossary - Southern Oscilliation Index (SOI)" (http:/ / www. bom. gov. au/ climate/ glossary/ soi. shtml). Bureau of Meteorology
(Australia). 2002-04-03. . Retrieved 2009-12-31.
[18] Pidwirny, Michael (2006-02-02). "Chapter 7: Introduction to the Atmosphere" (http:/ / www. physicalgeography. net/ fundamentals/ 7z.
html). Fundamentals of Physical Geography. physicalgeography.net. . Retrieved 2006-12-30.
[19] "Envisat watches for La Niña" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20080424113710/ http:/ / www. bnsc. gov. uk/ content. aspx?nid=5989).
BNSC via the Internet Wayback Machine. 2011-01-09. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. bnsc. gov. uk/ content. aspx?nid=5989) on
2008-04-24. . Retrieved 2007-07-26.
[20] "The Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array: Gathering Data to Predict El Niño" (http:/ / celebrating200years. noaa. gov/ datasets/ tropical/
welcome. html). Celebrating 200 Years. NOAA. 2007-01-08. . Retrieved 2007-07-26.
[21] "Ocean Surface Topography" (http:/ / sealevel. jpl. nasa. gov/ gallery/ presentations/ oceanography-101/ ocean101-slide14. html).
Oceanography 101. JPL. 2006-07-05. . Retrieved 2007-07-26. "Annual Sea Level Data Summary Report July 2005 - June 2006" (http:/ / web.
archive. org/ web/ 20070807235141/ http:/ / www. bom. gov. au/ fwo/ IDO60202/ IDO60202. 2006. pdf) (PDF). The Australian Baseline Sea
Level Monitoring Project. Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. bom. gov. au/ fwo/ IDO60202/ IDO60202. 2006.
pdf) on 2007-08-07. . Retrieved 2007-07-26.
[22] "Atmospheric Consequences of El Niño" (http:/ / ww2010. atmos. uiuc. edu/ (Gh)/ guides/ mtr/ eln/ atms. rxml). University of Illinois. .
Retrieved 2010-05-31.
[23] Pearcy, W. G.; Schoener, A. (1987). "Changes in the marine biota coincident with the 1982-1983 El Niño in the northeastern subarctic
Pacific Ocean" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 1987/ JC092iC13p14417. shtml). Journal of Geophysical Research 92 (C13):
14417–28. Bibcode 1987JGR....9214417P. doi:10.1029/JC092iC13p14417. .
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 148

[24] Climate Prediction Center. Average October-December (3-month) Temperature Rankings During ENSO Events. (http:/ / www. cpc. ncep.
noaa. gov/ products/ predictions/ threats2/ enso/ elnino/ UStrank/ ond. gif) Retrieved on 2008-04-16.
[25] Climate Prediction Center. Average December-February (3-month) Temperature Rankings During ENSO Events. (http:/ / www. cpc. ncep.
noaa. gov/ products/ predictions/ threats2/ enso/ elnino/ UStrank/ djf. gif) Retrieved on 2008-04-16.
[26] http:/ / www. davidsuzuki. org/ Climate_Change/ Impacts/ Extreme_Weather/ El_Nino. asp
[27] http:/ / news. nationalgeographic. com/ news/ 2010/ 02/ 100212-vancouver-2010-warmest-winter-olympics/
[28] Brian K. Sullivan (2010-05-06). "El Niño Warning Will Fade Out by June, U.S. Says (Update 1)" (http:/ / www. businessweek. com/ news/
2010-05-06/ el-nino-warming-will-fade-out-by-june-u-s-says-update1-. html). Bloomberg Businessweek. . Retrieved 2010-05-31.
[29] Joint Typhoon Warning Center (2006). 3.3 JTWC Forecasting Philosophies. (http:/ / www. nrlmry. navy. mil/ forecaster_handbooks/
Philippines2/ Forecasters Handbook for the Philippine Islands and Surrounding Waters Typhoon Forecasting. 3. pdf) United States Navy.
Retrieved on 2007-02-11.
[30] M. C. Wu, W. L. Chang, and W. M. Leung (2003). Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events on Tropical Cyclone Landfalling
Activity in the Western North Pacific. (http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ perlserv/ ?request=get-document& doi=10. 1175/
1520-0442(2004)017<1419:IOENOE>2. 0. CO;2) Journal of Climate: pp. 1419–1428. Retrieved on 2007-02-11.
[31] Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center. Pacific ENSO Update: 4th Quarter, 2006. Vol. 12 No. 4. (http:/ / www. soest. hawaii. edu/
MET/ Enso/ peu/ 2006_4th/ guam_cnmi. htm) Retrieved on 2008-03-19.
[32] Edward N. Rappaport (September 1999). "Atlantic Hurricane Season of 1997" (http:/ / www. aoml. noaa. gov/ general/ lib/ lib1/ nhclib/
mwreviews/ 1997. pdf). Monthly Weather Review 127: 2012. . Retrieved 2009-07-18.
[33] "Concern over Europe 'snow crisis'" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ europe/ 6185345. stm). BBC News. 2006-12-17. . Retrieved
2010-05-01.
[34] http:/ / www. channelnewsasia. com/ stories/ singaporelocalnews/ view/ 1040778/ 1/ . html
[35] Tropical Atmosphere Ocean project (2008-03-24). "What is La Niña?" (http:/ / www. pmel. noaa. gov/ tao/ elnino/ la-nina-story. html).
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory. . Retrieved 2009-07-17.
[36] http:/ / www. scoop. co. nz/ stories/ WO1010/ S00173/ la-nina-weather-likely-to-last-for-months. htm
[37] Hong, Lynda (2008-03-13). "Recent heavy rain not caused by global warming" (http:/ / www. channelnewsasia. com/ stories/
singaporelocalnews/ view/ 334735/ 1/ . html). Channel NewsAsia. . Retrieved 2008-06-22.
[38] "La Niña follows El Niño, the GLOBE El Niño Experiment continues" (http:/ / classic. globe. gov/ fsl/ html/ templ. cgi?butler_lanina&
lang=en). . Retrieved 2010-05-31.
[39] "ENSO Diagnostic Discussion" (http:/ / www. cpc. noaa. gov/ products/ analysis_monitoring/ enso_advisory/ ensodisc. html). Climate
Prediction Center. 2008-06-05. .
[40] "La Niña Information" (http:/ / www. publicaffairs. noaa. gov/ lanina. html). . Retrieved 2010-05-31.
[41] http:/ / www. ec. gc. ca/ doc/ smc-msc/ 2008/ s3_eng. html
[42] Pastor, Rene (2006-09-14). "El Niño climate pattern forms in Pacific Ocean" (http:/ / www. usatoday. com/ weather/ climate/
2006-09-13-el-nino_x. htm). USA Today. .
[43] Borenstein, Seth (2007-02-28). "There Goes El Niño, Here Comes La Niña" (http:/ / www. cbsnews. com/ stories/ 2007/ 02/ 28/ tech/
main2523483. shtml). CBS News. .
[44] http:/ / www. cpc. noaa. gov/ products/ analysis_monitoring/ lanina/ enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web. pdf
[45] David B. Enfield and Dennis A. Mayer (1997). "Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature variability and its relation to El Niño-Southern
Oscillation" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 1997/ 96JC03296. shtml). Journal of Geophysical Research 102 (C1): 929–945.
Bibcode 1997JGR...102..929E. doi:10.1029/96JC03296. . Retrieved 2009-11-29.
[46] Sang-Ki Lee, Chunzai Wang and David B. Enfield (2008). "Why do some El Niños have no impact on tropical North Atlantic SST?" (http:/
/ www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2008/ 2008GL034734. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 35 (L16705): L16705.
Bibcode 2008GeoRL..3516705L. doi:10.1029/2008GL034734. . Retrieved 2009-11-29.
[47] M. Latif and A. Grötzner (2000). "The equatorial Atlantic oscillation and its response to ENSO" (http:/ / www. springerlink. com/ content/
1hjeatc9jjlb0lh2/ ?p=038dacb0cb4140679f406a9ebed3304a& pi=0). Climate Dynamics 16 (2–3): 213–218. doi:10.1007/s003820050014. .
Retrieved 2009-11-29.
[48] Davis, Mike (2001). Late Victorian Holocausts: El Niño Famines and the Making of the Third World. London: Verso. pp. 271.
ISBN 1859847390.
[49] Trenberth, Kevin E.; Hoar, Timothy J. (January 1996). "The 1990-1995 El Niño-Southern Oscillation event: Longest on record".
Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1): 57&–;60. Bibcode 1996GeoRL..23...57T. doi:10.1029/95GL03602.
[50] Fedorov, Alexey V.; Philander, S. George (2000). "Is El Niño Changing?". Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 288 (5473): 1997–2002.
doi:10.1126/science.288.5473.1997.
[51] Zhang, Qiong; Guan, Yue; Yang, Haijun (2008). "ENSO Amplitude Change in Observation and Coupled Models". Advances in Atmospheric
Sciences 25 (3): 331–6. doi:10.1007/s00376-008-0361-5.
[52] Merryfield, William J. (2006). "Changes to ENSO under CO2 Doubling in a Multimodel Ensemble" (http:/ / www. ocgy. ubc. ca/ ~yzq/
books/ paper5_IPCC_revised/ Merryfield2006. pdf). Journal of Climate 19 (16): 4009–27. doi:10.1175/JCLI3834.1. .
[53] Meehl, G. A.; Teng, H.; Branstator, G. (2006). "Future changes of El Niño in two global coupled climate models". Climate Dynamics 26 (6):
549. doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0098-0.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 149

[54] Lenton, T. M.; Held, H.; Kriegler, E.; Hall, J. W.; Lucht, W.; Rahmstorf, S.; Schellnhuber, H. J. (Feb 2008). "Tipping elements in the Earth's
climate system" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=18258748) (Free full text). Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences 105 (6): 1786–1793. doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105. PMC 2538841. PMID 18258748. .
[55] Kao, Hsun-Ying and Jin-Yi Yu (2009). "Contrasting Eastern-Pacific and Central-Pacific Types of ENSO" (http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/
perlserv/ ?request=get-abstract& doi=10. 1175/ 2008JCLI2309. 1). Journal of Climate 22 (3): 615–632. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2309.1. .
[56] Larkin, N. K.; Harrison, D. E. (2005). "On the definition of El Niño and associated seasonal average U.S. Weather anomalies". Geophysical
Research Letters 32 (13): L13705. Bibcode 2005GeoRL..3213705L. doi:10.1029/2005GL022738.
[57] Modoki: The [[Mimetic (http:/ / books. google. com. au/ books?id=CDwaTsno9IMC& lpg=PA254& ots=6fk0sRLZns& dq=Modoki
meaning OR pronunciation& pg=PA254#v=onepage& q=Modoki meaning OR pronunciation& f=false)] Tradition in Japan] (article by
Sakabe Magumi), p251- in Modern Japanese Aesthetics - A Reader, ed Michelle Marra, 1999, University of Hawaii Press
[58] Hye-Mi Kim, Peter J. Webster, & Judith A. Curry (2009). "Impact of Shifting Patterns of Pacific Ocean Warming on North Atlantic
Tropical Cyclones" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 325/ 5936/ 77). Science 335 (5936): 77–80.
doi:10.1126/science.1174062. PMID 19574388. .
[59] Yeh, Sang-Wook; Kug, Jong-Seong; Dewitte, Boris; Kwon, Min-Ho; Kirtman, Ben P.; Jin, Fei-Fei (September 2009). "El Niño in a
changing climate". Nature 461 (7263): 511–4. doi:10.1038/nature08316. PMID 19779449.
[60] Phillander, S. George (2004). Our affair with El Niño: how we transformed an enchanting Peruvian current into a global climate hazard.
Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-11335-1.
[61] CIT, JPL; Michael McPhaden. "NASA/NOAA Study Finds El Niños are Growing Stronger" (http:/ / www. jpl. nasa. gov/ news/ news.
cfm?release=2010-277& cid=release_2010-277& msource=nino20100825& tr=y& auid=6878202). National Aeronautics and Space
Administration. Pasadena, California: Jet Propulsion Laboratory. . Retrieved 27 August 2010.
[62] Staff, OurAmazingPlanet. "New Type of El Niño Emerges as Climate Changes" (http:/ / www. livescience. com/ environment/
el-nino-rising-ocean-temperatures-100830. html). Imaginova Corporation. LiveScience. . Retrieved 19 September 2010.
[63] "El Niño and its health impact" (http:/ / www. allcountries. org/ health/ el_nino_and_its_health_impact. html). Health Topics A to Z. .
Retrieved 2011-01-01..
[64] Carrè, Matthieu; et al. (2005). "Strong El Niño events during the early Holocene: stable isotope evidence from Peruvian sea shells". The
Holocene 15 (1): 42–7. doi:10.1191/0959683605h1782rp.
[65] "El Nino here to stay" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 25433. stm). BBC News. . Retrieved 2010-05-01.
[66] Brian Fagan (1999). Floods, Famines and Emporers: El Niño and the Fate of Civilizations. Basic Books. pp. 119–138.
ISBN 0-465-01120-9.
[67] Grove, Richard H. (1998). "Global Impact of the 1789–93 El Niño". Nature 393 (6683): 318–9. doi:10.1038/30636.
[68] " Ó Gráda, C.: Famine: A Short History (http:/ / press. princeton. edu/ chapters/ s8857. html)". Princeton University Press.
[69] Trenberth, Kevin E.; Hoar, Timothy J. (1996). "The 1990-1995 El Niño-Southern Oscillation Event: Longest on Record" (http:/ / www. agu.
org/ pubs/ crossref/ 1996/ 95GL03602. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1): 57–60. Bibcode 1996GeoRL..23...57T.
doi:10.1029/95GL03602. .
[70] Trenberth, K. E.; et al. (2002). "Evolution of El Niño – Southern Oscillation and global atmospheric surface temperatures". Journal of
Geophysical Research 107 (D8): 4065. Bibcode 2002JGRD..107.4065T. doi:10.1029/2000JD000298.
[71] Marshall, Paul; Schuttenberg, Heidi (2006). A reef manager's guide to coral bleaching (http:/ / coris. noaa. gov/ activities/
reef_managers_guide/ pdfs/ reef_managers_guide. pdf). Townsville, Qld.: Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority. ISBN 1876945400. .

Further reading
• Caviedes, César N. (2001). El Niño in History: Storming Through the Ages. Gainesville: University of Florida
Press. ISBN 0813020999.
• Fagan, Brian M. (1999). Floods, Famines, and Emperors: El Niño and the Fate of Civilizations. New York: Basic
Books. ISBN 0712664785.
• Glantz, Michael H. (2001). Currents of change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 052178672X.
• Philander, S. George (1990). El Niño, La Niña and the Southern Oscillation. San Diego: Academic Press.
ISBN 0125532350.
• Trenberth, Kevin E. (1997). "The definition of El Niño" (http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/
?request=res-loc&uri=urn:ap:pdf:doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2) (pdf). Bulletin
of the American Meteorological Scociety 78 (12): 2771–7.
doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2. ISSN 1520-0477.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 150

External links
• Latest ENSO updates & predictions from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (http://iri.
columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/QuickLook.html)
• PO.DAAC's El Niño Animations (http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/el-nino/index.html)
• National Academy of Sciences El Niño/La Niña article (http://www7.nationalacademies.org/opus/elnino.
html)
• NOAA FAQ "What is ENSO?" (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/
ensofaq.shtml#ENSO)
• Latest El Niño/La Niña Data from NASA (http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/jason1-quick-look/)
• Economic Costs of El Niño / La Niña and Economic Benefits from Improved Forecasting (http://www.ncdc.
noaa.gov/oa/esb/?goal=climate&file=events/enso/) from "NOAA Socioeconomics" website initiative
• El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (http://www.linkingweatherandclimate.com/ENSO/)
• El Niño and La Niña from the 1999 International Red Cross World Disasters Report (http://www.ericjlyman.
com/elnino.html) by Eric J. Lyman.
• ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.
shtml)
• La Niña episodes in the Tropical Pacific (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/
lanina/cold_impacts.shtml)
• NOAA announces 2004 El Niño (http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2317.htm)
• NOAA El Niño Page (http://www.elnino.noaa.gov)
• Ocean Motion: El Niño (http://www.oceanmotion.org/html/impact/el-nino.htm)
• SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) (http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/glossary/soid.htm)
• The Climate of Peru (http://www.limaperunet.com/climate/climateall.html)
• What is El Niño? (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/el-nino-story.html)
• What is La Niña? (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/la-nina-story.html)
• El-Nino, La-Nina, Southern Oscillation, ENSO (http://www.sbg.ac.at/ipk/avstudio/pierofun/atmo/elnino.
htm)
• Kelvin Wave Renews El Niño - NASA, Earth Observatory image of the day, 2010, March 21 (http://
earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=43105)
• Animation of ENSO in Victoria, Australia (http://www.new.dpi.vic.gov.au/agriculture/
environment-and-community/climate/understanding-weather-and-climate/climatedogs/enso)
Indian Ocean Dipole 151

Indian Ocean Dipole


The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an irregular oscillation of
sea-surface temperatures in which the western Indian Ocean becomes
alternately warmer and then colder than the eastern part of the ocean.

The phenomenon
The IOD involves an aperiodic oscillation of sea-surface temperatures,
between "positive", "neutral" and "negative" phases. A positive phase
Water temperatures around the Mentawai Islands
sees greater-than-average sea-surface temperatures and greater dropped about 4° Celsius during the height of the
precipitation in the western Indian Ocean region, with a corresponding Indian Ocean Dipole in November of 1997.
cooling of waters in the eastern Indian Ocean—which tends to cause During these events unusually strong winds from
the east push warm surface water towards Africa,
droughts in adjacent land areas of Indonesia and Australia. The
allowing cold water to upwell along the Sumatran
negative phase of the IOD brings about the opposite conditions, with coast. In this image blue areas are colder than
warmer water and greater precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean, normal, while red areas are warmer than normal.
and cooler and drier conditions in the west.

The IOD also affects the strength of monsoons over the Indian subcontinent. A significant positive IOD occurred in
1997-8, with another in 2006. The IOD is one aspect of the general cycle of global climate, interacting with similar
phenomena like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean.
The IOD phenomenon was first identified by climate researchers in 1999. Yet evidence from fossil coral reefs
demonstrates that the IOD has functioned since at least the middle of the Holocene period, 6500 years ago.
An average of four each positive/negative IOD events occur during each 30 year period with each event lasting
around six months. However, there have been 12 positive IODs since 1980 and no negative events since 1992. The
occurrence of consecutive positive IOD events are extremely rare with only two such events recorded, 1913–1914
and the three consecutive events from 2006-2008 which preceded the Black Saturday bushfires. Modelling indicates
that consecutive positive events occur twice over a 1,000 year period. The positive IOD in 2007 evolved together
with La Niña which is a very rare phenomenon that has happened only once in the available historical records (in
1967).[1] [2] [3] [4]

Effect on Australian Droughts


A 2009 study by Ummenhofer et al. at the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Climate Change Research
Centre, has demonstrated a significant correlation between the IOD and drought in the southern half of Australia, in
particular the south-east. Every major southern drought since 1889 has coincided with positive/neutral IOD
fluctuations including the 1895-1902, 1937–1945 and the current 1995-present droughts.[5]
The research shows that when the IOD is in its negative phase, with cool Indian Ocean water west of Australia and
warm Timor Sea water to the north, winds are generated that pick up moisture from the ocean and then sweep down
towards southern Australia to deliver higher rainfall. In the IOD positive phase, the pattern of ocean temperatures is
reversed, weakening the winds and reducing the amount of moisture picked up and transported across Australia. The
consequence is that rainfall in the south-east is well below average during periods of a positive IOD.
The study also shows that the IOD has a much more significant effect on the rainfall patterns in south-east Australia
than the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean as already shown in some of the previous [6] [7]
and recent studies.[8]
Indian Ocean Dipole 152

Further reading
• Abram, Nerilie J.; et al. (2007). "Seasonal characteristics of the Indian Ocean dipole during the Holocene epoch".
Nature 445 (7125): 299–302. doi:10.1038/nature05477. PMID 17230187.
• Ashok, Karumuri; Guan, Zhaoyong; Yamagata, Toshio (2001). "Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the
Relationship between the Indian Monsoon Rainfall and ENSO". Geophysical Research Letters 28 (23):
4499–4502. Bibcode 2001GeoRL..28.4499A. doi:10.1029/2001GL013294.
• Li, Tim; et al. (2003). "A Theory for the Indian Ocean Dipole–Zonal Mode". Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
60 (17): 2119–2135. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<2119:ATFTIO>2.0.CO;2.
• Rao, S. A.; et al. (2002). "Interannual variability in the subsurface Indian Ocean with special emphasis on the
Indian Ocean Dipole". Deep Sea Research-II 49 (7–8): 1549–1572. doi:10.1016/S0967-0645(01)00158-8.
• Saji, N. H.; et al. (1999). "A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean". Nature 401 (6751): 360–363.
doi:10.1038/43854. PMID 16862108.
• Behera, S. K.; et al. (2008). "Unusual IOD event of 2007". Geophysical Research Letters 35: L14S11.
Bibcode 2008GeoRL..3514S11B. doi:10.1029/2008GL034122.

References
[1] "Argo profiles a rare occurrence of three consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, 2006–2008" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/
crossref/ 2009/ 2008GL037038. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters. April 16, 2009. . Retrieved December 22, 2009.
[2] Cooper, Dani (March 25, 2009). "Bushfire origins lie in Indian Ocean" (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ science/ articles/ 2009/ 03/ 25/ 2525580.
htm). Australian Broadcasting Corporation. . Retrieved December 22, 2009.
[3] Perry, Michael (February 5, 2009). "Indian Ocean linked to Australian droughts" (http:/ / www. reuters. com/ article/
idUSTRE5133FL20090205). Reuters. . Retrieved December 22, 2009.
[4] Rosebro, Jack (February 12, 2009). "Australi Reels From Split Weather System" (http:/ / www. greencarcongress. com/ 2009/ 02/
australia-reels/ comments/ page/ 2/ ). Green Car Congress. . Retrieved December 22, 2009.
[5] Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; et al. (February 2009). "What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts?" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/
crossref/ 2009/ 2008GL036801. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 36 (L04706). doi:10.1029//2008GL036801. .
[6] Swadhin K. Behera and Toshio Yamagata (2003). Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Southern Oscillation. Journal of the
Meteorological Society of Japan. (http:/ / www. jstage. jst. go. jp/ article/ jmsj/ 81/ 1/ 81_169/ ) 37, 169--177
[7] H. Annamalai, S.-P. Xie, J.-P. McCreary and R Murtugudde (2005). Impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature on developing El Niño.
Journal of Climatology. 18, 302-319 (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ JCLI-3268. 1)
[8] Takeshi Izumo, Jérôme Vialard, Matthieu Lengaigne, Clément de Boyer Montegut, Swadhin K. Behera, Jing-Jia Luo, Sophie Cravatte,
Sébastien Masson and Toshio Yamagata (2010). Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the following year’s El Niño. Nature
Geoscience. 3, 168-172, DOI: 10.1038/NGEO760

External links
• IOD home page. (http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/)
• IOD, monsoons, and ENSO. (http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/jp/press/yamagata/011129/eng/index_e.
html)
• Indian Ocean causes Big Dry: drought mystery solved. (http://www.science.unsw.edu.au/news/
indian-ocean-drought)
• Animation of Indian Ocean Dipole in Victoria, Australia (http://www.new.dpi.vic.gov.au/agriculture/
environment-and-community/climate/understanding-weather-and-climate/climatedogs/indy)
Pacific decadal oscillation 153

Pacific decadal oscillation


The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a pattern of
Pacific climate variability that shifts phases on at least
inter-decadal time scale, usually about 20 to 30 years.
The PDO is detected as warm or cool surface waters in
the Pacific Ocean, north of 20° N. During a "warm", or
"positive", phase, the west Pacific becomes cool and
part of the eastern ocean warms; during a "cool" or
"negative" phase, the opposite pattern occurs.

The Pacific (inter-)decadal oscillation was named by


Steven R. Hare, who noticed it while studying salmon
production patterns results in 1997.[1]
The prevailing hypothesis is that the PDO is caused by
NASA image of the Pacific Ocean in April 2008 showing La Niña
a "reddening" of ENSO combined with stochastic and Pacific Decadal Anomalies.
atmospheric forcing.[2]
A PDO signal has been reconstructed to 1661 through tree-ring chronologies in the Baja California area.[3]
The interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO or ID) display similar sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-level
pressure (SLP) patterns, with a cycle of 15–30 years, but affects both the north and south Pacific. In the tropical
Pacific, maximum SST anomalies are found away from the equator. This is quite different from the quasi-decadal
oscillation (QDO) with a period of 8-to-12 years and maximum SST anomalies straddling the equator, thus
resembling the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Mechanisms
Several studies have indicated that the PDO index can be reconstructed as the superimposition of tropical forcing and
extra-tropical processes.[2] [4] [5] [6] Thus, unlike ENSO, the PDO is not a single physical mode of ocean variability,
but rather the sum of several processes with different dynamical origins.
At inter-annual time scales the PDO index is reconstructed as the sum of random and ENSO induced variability in
the Aleutian low, on decadal timescales ENSO teleconnections, stochastic atmospheric forcing and changes in the
North Pacific oceanic gyre circulation contribute approximately equally, additionally sea surface temperature
anomalies have some winter to winter persistence due to the reemergence mechanism.
ENSO teleconnections, the atmospheric bridge[7]
ENSO can influence the global circulation pattern
thousands of kilometers away from the equatorial
Pacific through the "atmospheric bridge". During el
nino events deep convection and heat transfer to the
troposphere is enhanced over the anomalously warm
sea surface temperature, this ENSO related tropical
forcing generates Rossby waves that propagates
poleward and eastward and are subsequently refracted
back from the pole to the tropics. The planetary waves The atmospheric bridge during el nino
forms at preferred locations both in the North and
Pacific decadal oscillation 154

South Pacific Ocean and the teleconnection pattern is established within 2–6 weeks.[8] ENSO driven patterns modify
surface temperature,humidity, wind and the distribution of cloud over the North Pacific that alter surface heat,
momentum and freshwater fluxes and thus induce sea surface temperature,salinity and mixed layer depth (MLD)
anomalies.
The atmospheric bridge is more effective during boreal winter when the deepened Aleutian low results in stronger
and cold northwesterly winds over the central Pacific and warm/humid southerly winds along the North American
west coast, the associated changes in the surface heat fluxes and to a lesser extent Ekman transport creates negative
sea surface temperature anomalies and a deepened MLD in the central pacific and warm the ocean from the Hawaii
to the Bering Sea.
SST reemergence[9]

Reemergence mechanism in the North Pacific.

Mixed layer depth seasonal cycle.

Midlatitude SST anomaly patterns tend to recur from one winter to the next but not during the intervening summer,
this process occurs because of the strong mixed layer seasonal cycle. The mixed layer depth over the North Pacific is
deeper, typically 100-200m, in winter than it is in summer and thus SST anomalies that forms during winter and
extend to the base of the mixed layer are sequestered beneath the shallow summer mixed layer when it reforms in
late spring and are effectively insulated from the air-sea heat flux. When the mixed layer deepens again in the
following autumn/early winter the anomalies may influence again the surface. This process has been named
"reemergence mechanism" by Alexander and Deser[10] and is observed over much of the North Pacific Ocean
although is more effective in the west where the winter mixed layer is deeper and the seasonal cycle greater.
Stochastic atmospheric forcing[11]
Long term sea surface temperature variation may be induced by random atmospheric forcings that are integrated and
reddened into the ocean mixed layer. The stochastic climate model paradigm was proposed by Frankignoul and
Hasselmann,[12] in this model a stochastic forcing represented by the passage of storms alter the ocean mixed layer
temperature via surface energy fluxes and Ekman currents and the system is damped due to the enhanced (reduced)
heat loss to the atmosphere over the anomalously warm (cold) SST via turbulent energy and longwave radiative
fluxes, in the simple case of a linear negative feedback the model can be written as:

where v is the random atmospheric forcing, λ is the damping rate (positive and constant) and y is the response.
The variance spectrum of y is:
Pacific decadal oscillation 155

where F is the variance of the white noise forcing and w is the frequency, an implication of this equation is that at
short time scales (w>>λ) the variance of the ocean temperature increase with the square of the period while at longer
timescales(w<<λ, ~150 months) the damping process dominates and limits sea surface temperature anomalies so that
the spectra became white.
Thus an atmospheric white noise generates SST anomalies at much longer timescales but without spectral peaks.
Modeling studies suggest that this process contribute to as much as 1/3 of the PDO variability at decadal timescales.
Ocean dynamics
Several dynamic oceanic mechanisms and SST-air feedback may contribute to the observed decadal variability in the
North Pacific Ocean. SST variability is stronger in the Kuroshio Oyashio extension (KOE) region and is associated
with changes in the KOE axis and strength,[6] that generates decadal and longer time scales SST variance but without
the observed magnitude of the spectral peak at ~10 years, and SST-air feedback. Remote reemergence occurs in
regions of strong current such as the Kuroshio extension and the anomalies created near the Japan may reemerge the
next winter in the central pacific.
• Advective resonance
Saravanan and McWilliams[13] have demonstrated that the interaction between spatially coherent atmospheric
forcing patterns and an advective ocean shows periodicities at preferred time scales when non-local advective effects
dominates over the local sea surface temperature damping. This "advective resonance" mechanism may generate
decadal SST variability in the Eastern North Pacific associated with the anomalous Ekman advection and surface
heat flux.[14]
• North Pacific oceanic gyre circulation
Dynamic gyre adjustments are essential to generate decadal SST peaks in the North Pacific, the process occurs via
westward propagating oceanic Rossby waves that are forced by wind anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific
Ocean. The quasigeostrophic equation for long non-dispersive Rossby Waves forced by large scale wind stress can
be written as:[15]

where h is the upper-layer thickness anomaly, curl(τ) is the wind stress, c is the Rossby waves speed that depends on
latitudes, ρ0 is the density of sea water and f0 is the Coriolis parameter at a reference latitude. The response time
scale is set by the Rossby waves speed, the location of the wind forcing and the basin width, at the latitude of the
Kuroshio Extension c is 2.5 cm s−1 and the dynamic gyre adjustement timescale is ~(5)10 years if the Rossby wave
was initiated in the (central)eastern Pacific Ocean.
If the wind white forcing is zonally uniform it should generate a red spectrum in which h variance increase with the
period and reaches a constant amplitude at lower frequencies without decadal and interdecadal peaks, however low
frequencies atmospheric circulation tends to be dominated by fixed spatial patterns so that wind forcing is not
zonally uniform, if the wind forcing is zonally sinusoidal then decadal peaks occurs due to resonance of the forced
basin-scale Rossby waves.
The propagation of h anomalies in the western pacific changes the KOE axis and strength[6] and impact sst due to the
anomalous geostrophic heat transport. Recent studies[6] [16] suggest that Rossby waves excited by the Aleutian low
propagates the PDO signal from the North Pacific to the KOE through changes in the KOE axis while Rossby waves
associated with the NPO propagates the NPGO signal through changes in the KOE strength.
Pacific decadal oscillation 156

Reconstructions and Regime shifts

Observed monthly values for the PDO (1900–2010).

Reconstructed PDO (993-1996).

The PDO index has been reconstructed using tree rings and other hydrologically sensitive proxies from west North
America and Asia.[3] [17] [18]
MacDonald and Case[19] reconstructed the PDO back to 993 using tree rings from California and Alberta. The index
shows a 50-70 year periodicity but this is a strong mode of variability only after 1800, a persistent negative phase
occurred during medieval times (993-1300) which is consistent with la nina conditions reconstructed in the tropical
Pacific[20] and multi-century droughts in the South-West United States.[21]
Several regime shifts are apparent both in the reconstructions and instrumental data, during the 20th century regime
shifts associated with concurrent changes in SST, SLP, land precipitation and ocean cloud cover occurred in
1924/1925,1945/1946 and 1976/1977:[22]
• 1750: PDO displays an unusually strong oscillation.[3]
• 1924/1925: PDO changed to a "warm" phase.[22]
• 1945/1946: The PDO changed to a "cool" phase, the pattern of this regime shift is similar to the 1970s episode
with maximum amplitude in the subarctic and subtropical front but with a greater signature near the Japan while
the 1970s shift was stronger near the American west coast.[22] [23]
• 1976/1977: PDO changed to a "warm" phase.[24]
• 1988/1989:A weakening of the Aleutian low with associated SST changes was observed,[25] in contrast to others
regime shifts this change appears to be related to concurrent extratropical oscillation in the North Pacific and
North Atlantic rather than tropical processes.[26]
• 1997/1998: Several changes in Sea surface temperature and marine ecosystem occurred in the North Pacific after
1997/1998, in contrast to prevailing anomalies observed after the 1970s shift SST declined along the United
States west coast and substantial changes in the populations of salmon, anchovy and sardine were observed,[27]
however the spatial pattern of the SST change was different with a meridional SST seesaw in the central and
western Pacific that resemble a strong shift in the NPGO rather than the PDO structure, this pattern dominated
much of the North Pacific SST variability after 1989.[28]
Pacific decadal oscillation 157

Predictability
NOAA's forecast [29] use a linear inverse modeling (LIM)[30] method to predict the PDO, LIM assumes that the
PDO can be separated into a linear deterministic component and a non-linear component represented by random
fluctuations.
Much of the LIM PDO predictability arises from ENSO and the global trend rather than extra-tropical processes and
is thus limited to ~4 season, the prediction is consistent with the seasonal footprinting mechanism[31] in which an
optimal SST structure evolve into the ENSO mature phase 6–10 months later that subsequently impact the North
Pacific Ocean SST via the atmospheric bridge.
Skills in predicting decadal PDO variability could arise from taking into account the impact of the externally
forced[32] and internally generated[33] pacific variability.

Related patterns
• ENSO tends to lead PDO/IPO cycling.
• Shifts in the IPO change the location and strength of ENSO activity. The South Pacific Convergence Zone moves
northeast during El Niño and southwest during La Niña events. The same movement takes place during positive
IPO and negative IPO phases respectively. (Folland et al., 2002)
• Interdecadal temperature variations in China are closely related to those of the NAO and the NPO.
• The amplitudes of the NAO and NPO increased in the 1960s and interannual variation patterns changed from 3–4
years to 8–15 years.
• Sea level rise is affected when large areas of water warm and expand, or cool and contract.

References
[1] Mantua, Nathan J.; et al. (1997). "A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production" (http:/ / www. atmos.
washington. edu/ ~mantua/ abst. PDO. html). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78: 1069–1079.
doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2. .
[2] Newman, M.; Compo, G.P.; Alexander, Michael A. (2003). "ENSO-Forced Variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation". Journal of
Climate 16 (23): 3853–3857. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3853:EVOTPD>2.0.CO;2.
[3] Biondi, Franco; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R. (2001). "North Pacific Decadal Climate Variability since 1661" (http:/ / www.
ngdc. noaa. gov/ paleo/ pubs/ biondi2001/ biondi2001. html). Journal of Climate 14 (1): 5–10.
doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0005:NPDCVS>2.0.CO;2. .
[4] Vimont, Daniel J. (2005). "The Contribution of the Interannual ENSO Cycle to the Spatial Pattern of Decadal ENSO-Like Variability" (http:/
/ journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ JCLI3365. 1). Journal of Climate 18 (12): 2080–2092. doi:10.1175/JCLI3365.1. . Retrieved
2010-09-16.
[5] Schneider, Niklas; Bruce D. Cornuelle (2005). "The Forcing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10.
1175/ JCLI3527. 1). Journal of Climate 18 (8): 4355–4372. doi:10.1175/JCLI3527.1. . Retrieved 2010-09-16.
[6] Qiu, Bo; Niklas Schneider, Shuiming Chen (2007). "Coupled Decadal Variability in the North Pacific: An Observationally Constrained
Idealized Model" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ full/ 10. 1175/ JCLI4190. 1). Journal of Climate 20 (14): 3602–3620.
doi:10.1175/JCLI4190.1. . Retrieved 2010-09-16.
[7] Alexander, Michael A; Ileana Bladé,Matthew Newman,John R. Lanzante,Ngar-Cheung Lau,James D. Scott (2002). "The Atmospheric
Bridge: The Influence of ENSO Teleconnections on Air–Sea Interaction over the Global Oceans" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10.
1175/ 1520-0442(2002)015<2205:TABTIO>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Climate 15 (16): 2205–2231.
doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2205:TABTIO>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-09-20.
[8] Liu, Zhengyu; Alexander Michael (2007). "Atmospheric bridge, oceanic tunnel,and global climate teleconnections." (http:/ / www. agu. org/
journals/ ABS/ 2007/ 2005RG000172. shtml). REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS 45: 2. Bibcode 2007RvGeo..45.2005L.
doi:10.1029/2005RG000172. . Retrieved 2010-09-20.
[9] Deser, Clara; Michael A. Alexander, Michael S. Timlin (2003). "Understanding the Persistence of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in
Midlatitudes" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0442(2003)016<0057:UTPOSS>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Climate 16
(12): 57–72. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0057:UTPOSS>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-09-20.
[10] Alexander, Michael A.; Deser Clara (1995). "A Mechanism for the Recurrence of Wintertime Midlatitude SST Anomalies" (http:/ / journals.
ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0485(1995)025<0122:AMFTRO>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Physical Oceanography 125 (1): 122–137.
doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1995)025<0122:AMFTRO>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-09-20.
Pacific decadal oscillation 158

[11] Alexander, Michael A.; Penland, Cecile (1996). "Variability in a mixed layer ocean model driven by stochastic atmospheric forcing" (http:/ /
journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0442(1996)009<2424:VIAMLO>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Climate 9 (10): 2424–2442.
doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2424:VIAMLO>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-09-22.
[12] Frankignoul, Claude; Hasselmann, Klaus (1977). "Stochastic climate models, Part II Application to sea-surface temperature anomalies and
thermocline variability" (http:/ / onlinelibrary. wiley. com/ doi/ 10. 1111/ j. 2153-3490. 1977. tb00740. x/ abstract). Tellus 24 (4): 289–305.
doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1977.tb00740.x. . Retrieved 2010-09-22.
[13] Saravanan, R.; McWilliams James C. (1998). "Advective Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction: An Analytical Stochastic Model with Implications
for Decadal Variability" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0442(1998)011<0165:AOAIAA>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of
Climate 11 (2): 165–188. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<0165:AOAIAA>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-09-23.
[14] Wu, Lixin; Zhengyu Liu (2003). "Decadal Variability in the North Pacific: The Eastern North Pacific Mode" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/
doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0442(2003)016<3111:DVITNP>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Climate 16 (19): 3111–3131.
doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3111:DVITNP>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-09-27.
[15] Jin, Fei-Fei (1997). "A Theory of Interdecadal Climate Variability of the North Pacific Ocean–Atmosphere System" (http:/ / journals.
ametsoc. org/ doi/ full/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0442(1997)010<1821:ATOICV>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Climate 10 (8): 1821–1835.
doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1821:ATOICV>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-10-07.
[16] Ceballos, Lina; Emanuele Di Lorenzo; Carlos D. Hoyos; Niklas Schneider; Bunmei Taguchi (2009). "North Pacific Gyre Oscillation
Synchronizes Climate Fluctuations in the Eastern and Western Boundary Systems" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ full/ 10. 1175/
1520-0442(1997)010<1821:ATOICV>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Climate 22 (19): 5163–5174. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2848.1. . Retrieved
2010-10-07.
[17] Shen, Caiming; Wei-Chyung Wang; Wei Gong; Zhixin Hao (2006). "A Pacific Decadal Oscillation record since 1470 AD reconstructed
from proxy data of summer rainfall over eastern China" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ ABS/ 2006/ 2005GL024804. shtml). Geophys. Res.
Lett. 33. Bibcode 2006GeoRL..3303702S. doi:10.1029/2005GL024804. . Retrieved 2010-10-26.
[18] D'arrigo, R.; Wilson R. (2006). "On the Asian Expression of the PDO." (http:/ / onlinelibrary. wiley. com/ doi/ 10. 1002/ joc. 1326/ abstract).
International Journal of Climatology 26: 1607–1617. doi:10.1002/joc.1326. . Retrieved 2010-10-26.
[19] MacDonald, G.M.; Case R.A. (2005). "Variations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over the past millennium" (http:/ / www. agu. org/
journals/ ABS/ 2005/ 2005GL022478. shtml). Geophys. Res. Lett. 32. Bibcode 2005GeoRL..3208703M. doi:10.1029/2005GL022478. .
Retrieved 2010-10-26.
[20] Rein, Bert; Andreas Lückge; Frank Sirocko (2004). "AA major Holocene ENSO anomaly during the Medieval period" (http:/ / www. agu.
org/ journals/ ABS/ 2004/ 2004GL020161. shtml). Geophys. Res. Lett. 31. Bibcode 2004GeoRL..3117211R. doi:10.1029/2004GL020161. .
Retrieved 2010-10-26.
[21] Seager, Richard; Graham, Nicholas; Herweijer, Celine; Gordon, Arnold L.; Kushnir, Yochanan; Cook, Ed (2007). "Blueprints for Medieval
hydroclimate". Quaternary Science Reviews 26 (19-21): 2322–2336. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2007.04.020.
[22] Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S.; Hurrell, James W. (2004). "Pacific Interdecadal Climate Variability: Linkages between the Tropics and the
North Pacific during Boreal Winter since 1900." (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0442(2004)017<3109:PICVLB>2. 0.
CO;2). Journal of Climate 17 (15): 3109–3124. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3109:PICVLB>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-10-26.
[23] Minobe, Shoshiro; Atsushi Maeda (2005). "A 1° monthly gridded sea-surface temperature dataset compiled from ICOADS from 1850 to
2002 and Northern Hemisphere frontal variability" (http:/ / onlinelibrary. wiley. com/ doi/ 10. 1002/ joc. 1170/ abstract). International Journal
of Climatology 25 (7): 881–894. doi:10.1002/joc.1170. . Retrieved 2010-10-26.
[24] Hare, Steven R.; Mantua, Nathan J. (2000). "Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989". Progress in
Oceanography 47 (2–4): 103–145. Bibcode 2000PrOce..47..103H. doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(00)00033-1.
[25] Trenberth, Kevin; Hurrell, James W. (1994). "Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific" (http:/ / www. springerlink. com/ content/
m5711482u6554132/ ). Climate Dynamics 9 (6): 303–319. Bibcode 1994ClDy....9..303T. doi:10.1007/BF00204745. . Retrieved 2010-10-26.
[26] Yasunaka, Sayaka; Kimio Hanawa (2003). "Regime Shifts in the Northern Hemisphere SST Field: Revisited in Relation to Tropical
Variations" (http:/ / www. jstage. jst. go. jp/ article/ jmsj/ 81/ 2/ 81_415/ _article/ -char/ en). Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 81
(2): 415–424. doi:10.2151/jmsj.81.415. . Retrieved 2010-10-26.
[27] Chavez, Francisco P; John Ryan, Salvador E. Lluch-Cota, Miguel Ñiquen C. (2003). "From Anchovies to Sardines and Back: Multidecadal
Change in the Pacific Ocean" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ short/ 299/ 5604/ 217). Science 299: 217–221.
doi:10.1126/science.1075880. . Retrieved 2010-10-26.
[28] Bond, N.A.; J. E. Overland; M. Spillane; P. Stabeno (2003). "Recent shifts in the state of the North Pacific" (http:/ / europa. agu. org/ ?uri=/
journals/ gl/ gl0323/ 2003GL018597/ 2003GL018597. xml& view=article). Geophys. Res. Lett 30. Bibcode 2003GeoRL..30wCLM1B.
doi:10.1029/2003GL018597. . Retrieved 2010-10-26.
[29] http:/ / www. esrl. noaa. gov/ psd/ forecasts/ sstlim/ for1pdo. html
[30] Alexander, Michael A.; Ludmila Matrosova; Cécile Penland; James D. Scott; Ping Chang (2008). "Forecasting Pacific SSTs: Linear Inverse
Model Predictions of the PDO" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 2007JCLI1849. 1). Journal of Climate 21 (2): 385–402.
doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1849.1. . Retrieved 2010-10-08.
[31] Vimont, Daniel J.; John M. Wallace; David S. Battisti (2003). "The Seasonal Footprinting Mechanism in the Pacific: Implications for
ENSO" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0442(2003)016<2668:TSFMIT>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Climate 16 (16):
2668–2675. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2668:TSFMIT>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-10-08.
Pacific decadal oscillation 159

[32] Meehl, Gerard A.; Aixue Hu; Benjamin D. Santer (2009). "The Mid-1970s Climate Shift in the Pacific and the Relative Roles of Forced
versus Inherent Decadal Variability" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 2008JCLI2552. 1). Journal of Climate 22 (3):
780–792. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2552.1. . Retrieved 2010-10-08.
[33] Mochizuki, Takashi; Masayoshi Ishii; Masahide Kimoto; Yoshimitsu Chikamotoc; Masahiro Watanabec; Toru Nozawad; Takashi T.
Sakamotoa; Hideo Shiogamad; Toshiyuki Awajia; Nozomi Sugiuraa; Takahiro Toyodaa; Sayaka Yasunakac; Hiroaki Tatebea; Masato Moric
(2010). "Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ content/ 107/ 5/ 1833. full).
PNAS 107 (5): 1833–1837. doi:10.1073/pnas.0906531107. . Retrieved 2010-10-08.

Further reading
• LI Chongyin, HE Jinhai, ZHU Jinhong (2004). "A Review of Decadal/Interdecadal Climate Variation Studies in
China". Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 21 (3): 425–436. doi:10.1007/BF02915569.
• C. K. Folland, J. A. Renwick, M. J. Salinger, A. B. Mullan (2002). "Relative influences of the Interdecadal
Pacific Oscillation and ENSO in the South Pacific Convergence Zone" (http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/
2002/2001GL014201.shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 29 (13): 21–1–21–4.
Bibcode 2002GeoRL..29m..21F. doi:10.1029/2001GL014201.
• Steven R. Hare and Nathan J. Mantua, 2001. An historical narrative on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation,
interdecadal climate variability and ecosystem impacts, Report of a talk presented at the 20th NE Pacific Pink and
Chum workshop, Seattle, WA, 22 March 2001. (http://www.iphc.washington.edu/Staff/hare/html/papers/
pcworkshop/pcworkshop.pdf)
• Nathan J. Mantua and Steven R. Hare, 2002. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Journal of Oceanography, Vol. 58,
p. 35–44. doi:10.1023/A:1015820616384 (http://jisao.washington.edu/PNWimpacts/Publications/Pub166.
pdf)
• Kevin Ho, 2005. Salmon-omics: Effect of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on Alaskan Chinook Harvests and Market
Price. Columbia University. (http://www.columbia.edu/~kjh2103/Salmon-omics-PDO.pdf)

External links
• "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)" (http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/). JISAO. Retrieved
February 13, 2005.
• "Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)" (http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/pdo.html). JPL SCIENCE - PDO.
Retrieved February 13, 2005.
Milankovitch cycles 160

Milankovitch cycles
Milankovitch Theory describes the collective effects of changes
in the Earth's movements upon its climate, named after Serbian
civil engineer and mathematician Milutin Milanković, who
worked on it during First World War internment. Milanković
mathematically theorised that variations in eccentricity, axial tilt,
and precession of the Earth's orbit determined climatic patterns on
Earth.

The Earth's axis completes one full cycle of precession


approximately every 26,000 years. At the same time the elliptical
orbit rotates more slowly. The combined effect of the two
precessions leads to a 21,000-year period between the seasons and
the orbit. In addition, the angle between Earth's rotational axis and
the normal to the plane of its orbit (obliquity) oscillates between
Past and future Milankovitch cycles. VSOP allows
22.1 and 24.5 degrees on a 41,000-year cycle. It is currently 23.44
prediction of past and future orbital parameters with
degrees and decreasing. great accuracy. ε is obliquity (axial tilt). e is
eccentricity. ϖ is longitude of perihelion. esin(ϖ) is the
Other astronomical theories were advanced by Joseph Adhemar,
precession index, which together with obliquity,
James Croll and others, but verification was difficult due to the
controls the seasonal cycle of insolation. is the
absence of reliably dated evidence and doubts as to exactly which
calculated daily-averaged insolation at the top of the
periods were important. Not until the advent of deep-ocean cores atmosphere, on the day of the summer solstice at 65 N
and a seminal paper by Hays, Imbrie, and Shackleton, "Variations latitude. Benthic forams and Vostok ice core show two
in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages", in Science distinct proxies for past global sealevel and
temperature, from ocean sediment and Antarctic ice
(1976)[1] did the theory attain its present state.
respectively. Vertical gray line is current conditions, at
2 ky A.D.

Earth’s movements
As the Earth spins around its axis and orbits around the Sun, several quasi-periodic variations occur. Although the
curves have a large number of sinusoidal components, a few components are dominant.[2] Milankovitch studied
changes in the orbital eccentricity, obliquity, and precession of Earth's movements. Such changes in movement and
orientation change the amount and location of solar radiation reaching the Earth. This is known as solar forcing (an
example of radiative forcing). Changes near the north polar area, about 65 degrees North, are considered important
due to the great amount of land, which reacts to such changes quicker than the oceans do. Land masses respond to
temperature change more quickly than oceans which self cool by mixing of surface and deep water, the movement of
cool and warm currents and suface evaporation, and the fact that the specific heat of solids is generally lower than
that of water (i.e., it takes a smaller change in the amount of heat a given mass of a solid contains to change its
temperature by the same number of degrees than it would take to change the same mass of water's temperature by the
same number of degrees.)
Milankovitch cycles 161

Orbital shape (eccentricity)

Circular orbit, no eccentricity. Orbit with 0.5 eccentricity.

The Earth's orbit is an ellipse. The eccentricity is a measure of the departure of this ellipse from circularity. The
shape of the Earth's orbit varies in time between nearly circular (low eccentricity of 0.005) and mildly elliptical (high
eccentricity of 0.058) with the mean eccentricity of 0.028. The major component of these variations occurs on a
period of 413,000 years (eccentricity variation of ±0.012). A number of other terms vary between components
95,000 and 125,000 years (with a beat period 400,000 years), and loosely combine into a 100,000-year cycle
(variation of −0.03 to +0.02). The present eccentricity is 0.017.
If the Earth were the only planet orbiting our Sun, the eccentricity of its orbit would not perceptibly vary even over a
period of a million years. The Earth's eccentricity varies primarily due to interactions with the gravitational fields of
Jupiter and Saturn. As the eccentricity of the orbit evolves, the semi-major axis of the orbital ellipse remains
unchanged. From the perspective of the perturbation theory used in celestial mechanics to compute the evolution of
the orbit, the semi-major axis is an adiabatic invariant. According to Kepler's third law the period of the orbit is
determined by the semi-major axis. It follows that the Earth's orbital period, the length of a sidereal year, also
remains unchanged as the orbit evolves. As the semi-minor axis is decreased with the eccentricity increase, the
seasonal changes increase.[3] But the mean solar irradiation for the planet changes only slightly for small
eccentricity, due to Kepler's second law.
The same average irradiation does not correspond to the average of corresponding temperatures (due to non-linearity
of the Stefan–Boltzmann law). For an irradiation with corresponding temperature 20°C and its symmetric variation
±50% (e.g. from the seasons change[4] ) we obtain asymmetric variation of corresponding temperatures with their
average 16°C (i.e. deviation −4°C). And for the irradiation variation during a day (with its average corresponding
also to 20°C) we obtain the average temperature (for zero thermal capacity) -113°C.
The relative increase in solar irradiation at closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) compared to the irradiation at the
furthest distance (aphelion) is slightly larger than 4 times the eccentricity. For the current orbital eccentricity this
amounts to a variation in incoming solar radiation of about 6.8%, while the current difference between perihelion
and aphelion is only 3.4% (5.1 million km). Perihelion presently occurs around January 3, while aphelion is around
July 4. When the orbit is at its most elliptical, the amount of solar radiation at perihelion will be about 23% more
than at aphelion.
Milankovitch cycles 162

Season (Northern Hemisphere)


Durations
[5]
data from United States Naval Observatory

Year Date: GMT Season Duration

2005 Winter Solstice 12/21/2005 18:35 88.99 days

2006 Spring Equinox 3/20/2006 18:26 92.75 days

2006 Summer Solstice 6/21/2006 12:26 93.65 days

2006 Autumn Equinox 9/23/2006 4:03 89.85 days

2006 Winter Solstice 12/22/2006 0:22 88.99 days

2007 Spring Equinox 3/21/2007 0:07 92.75 days

2007 Summer Solstice 6/21/2007 18:06 93.66 days

2007 Autumn Equinox 9/23/2007 9:51 89.85 days

2007 Winter Solstice 12/22/2007 06:08

Orbital mechanics requires that the length of the seasons be proportional to the areas of the seasonal quadrants, so
when the eccentricity is extreme, the seasons on the far side of the orbit can be substantially longer in duration.
When autumn and winter occur at closest approach, as is the case currently in the northern hemisphere, the earth is
moving at its maximum velocity and therefore autumn and winter are slightly shorter than spring and summer. Thus,
summer in the northern hemisphere is 4.66 days longer than winter and spring is 2.9 days longer than autumn.

Axial tilt (obliquity)


The angle of the Earth's axial tilt (obliquity of the ecliptic) varies with
respect to the plane of the Earth's orbit. These slow 2.4° obliquity
variations are roughly periodic, taking approximately 41,000 years to
shift between a tilt of 22.1° and 24.5° and back again. When the
obliquity increases, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in insolation
increases, with summers in both hemispheres receiving more radiative
flux from the Sun, and the winters less radiative flux.

But these changes of opposite sign in the summer and winter are not of
the same magnitude. The annual mean insolation increases in high
latitudes with increasing obliquity, while lower latitudes experience a
reduction in insolation. Cooler summers are suspected of encouraging
22.1-24.5° range of Earth's obliquity.
the start of an ice age by melting less of the previous winter's ice and
snow. So can it be argued that lower obliquity favors ice ages both
because of the mean insolation reduction in high latitudes as well as the additional reduction in summer insolation.
However no significant climate changes are associated with extreme axial tilts.
Scientists using computer models to study more extreme tilts than those that actually occur have concluded that
climate extremes at high obliquity would be particularly threatening to advanced forms of life that presently exist on
Earth. They noted that high obliquity would not likely sterilize a planet completely, but would make it harder for
fragile, warm-blooded land-based life to thrive as it does today.[6]
Currently the Earth is tilted at 23.44 degrees from its orbital plane, roughly halfway between its extreme values. The
tilt is in the decreasing phase of its cycle, and will reach its minimum value around the year 10,000 CE. This trend,
by itself, would tend to make winters warmer and summers colder; however increases in greenhouse gases may
Milankovitch cycles 163

overpower this effect.

Axial precession
Precession is the trend in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation
relative to the fixed stars, with a period of roughly 26,000 years. This
gyroscopic motion is due to the tidal forces exerted by the sun and the
moon on the solid Earth, which has the shape of an oblate spheroid
rather than a sphere. The sun and moon contribute roughly equally to
this effect.

When the axis points toward the Sun in perihelion, one polar
hemisphere has a greater difference between the seasons while the
other has milder seasons. The hemisphere that is in summer at
perihelion receives much of the corresponding increase in solar
radiation, but that same hemisphere in winter at aphelion has a colder
winter. The other hemisphere will have a relatively warmer winter and
cooler summer.
Precessional movement.
When the Earth's axis is aligned such that aphelion and perihelion
occur near the equinoxes, the Northern and Southern Hemispheres will have similar contrasts in the seasons.
At present, perihelion occurs during the southern hemisphere's summer, and aphelion is reached during the southern
winter. Thus the southern hemisphere seasons are somewhat more extreme than the northern hemisphere seasons,
when other factors are equal.

Apsidal precession
In addition, the orbital ellipse itself
precesses in space, primarily as a result of
interactions with Jupiter and Saturn. This
orbital precession is in the same sense to the
gyroscopic motion of the axis of rotation,
shortening the period of the precession of
the equinoxes with respect to the perihelion
from 25,771.5 to ~21,636 years.

Orbital inclination
The inclination of Earth's orbit drifts up and
down relative to its present orbit with a
cycle having a period of about 70,000 years.
Milankovitch did not study this
three-dimensional movement. This
movement is known as "precession of the
Planets orbiting the Sun follow elliptical (oval) orbits that rotate gradually over
ecliptic" or "planetary precession".
time (apsidal precession). The eccentricity of this ellipse is exaggerated for
visualization. Most orbits in the Solar System have a much smaller eccentricity,
making them nearly circular.
Milankovitch cycles 164

More recent researchers noted this drift


and that the orbit also moves relative to
the orbits of the other planets. The
invariable plane, the plane that
represents the angular momentum of
the solar system, is approximately the
orbital plane of Jupiter. The inclination
of the Earth's orbit has a 100,000 year
cycle relative to the invariable plane,
this is very similar to the 100,000 year
eccentricity period. This 100,000-year
cycle closely matches the 100,000-year
pattern of ice ages.

It has been proposed that a disk of dust


and other debris exists in the invariable
Effects of apsidal precession on the seasons
plane, and this affects the Earth's
climate through several possible
means. The Earth presently moves through this plane around January 9 and July 9, when there is an increase in
radar-detected meteors and meteor-related noctilucent clouds.[7] [8]

A study of the chronology of Antarctic ice cores using oxygen-nitrogen ratios in air bubbles trapped in the ice, which
appear to respond directly to the local insolation, concluded that the climatic response documented in the ice cores
was driven by northern hemisphere insolation as proposed by the Milankovitch hypothesis (Kawamura et al., Nature,
23 August 2007, vol 448, p912-917). This is an additional validation of the Milankovitch hypothesis by a relatively
novel method, and is inconsistent with the "inclination" theory of the 100,000-year cycle.

Problems
Because the observed periodicities of climate fit so well with the orbital periods, the orbital theory has overwhelming
support. Nonetheless, there are several difficulties in reconciling theory with observations.

100,000-year problem
The 100,000-year problem is that the eccentricity
variations have a significantly smaller impact on solar
forcing than precession or obliquity and hence might be
expected to produce the weakest effects. However,
observations show that during the last 1 million years, the
strongest climate signal is the 100,000-year cycle. In
addition, despite the relatively great 100,000-year cycle,
some have argued that the length of the climate record is
insufficient to establish a statistically significant
relationship between climate and eccentricity
[9] The nature of sediments can vary in a cyclic fashion, and these
variations. Some models can however reproduce the
cycles can be displayed in the sedimentary record. Here, cycles
100,000 year cycles as a result of non-linear interactions
can be observed in the colouration and resistance of different
between small changes in the Earth's orbit and internal strata
oscillations of the climate system.[10] [11]
Milankovitch cycles 165

400,000-year problem
The 400,000-year problem is that the eccentricity variations have a strong 400,000-year cycle. That cycle is only
clearly present in climate records older than the last million years. If the 100ka variations are having such a strong
effect, the 400ka variations might also be expected to be apparent. This is also known as the stage 11 problem, after
the interglacial in marine isotopic stage 11 which would be unexpected if the 400,000-year cycle has an impact on
climate. The relative absence of this periodicity in the marine isotopic record may be due, at least in part, to the
response times of the climate system components involved—in particular, the carbon cycle.

Stage 5 problem
The stage 5 problem refers to the timing of the penultimate interglacial (in marine isotopic stage 5) which appears to
have begun ten thousand years in advance of the solar forcing hypothesized to have caused it (the causality
problem).

Effect exceeds cause


The effects of these variations are primarily believed to
be due to variations in the intensity of solar radiation
upon various parts of the globe. Observations show
climate behavior is much more intense than the
calculated variations. Various internal characteristics of
climate systems are believed to be sensitive to the
insolation changes, causing amplification (positive
feedback) and damping responses (negative feedback).

The unsplit peak problem


The unsplit peak problem refers to the fact that 420,000 years of ice core data from Vostok, Antarctica research
eccentricity has cleanly resolved variations at both the station.

95 and 125ka periods. A sufficiently long, well-dated


record of climate change should be able to resolve both frequencies,[12] but some researchers interpret climate
records of the last million years as showing only a single spectral peak at 100ka periodicity. It is debatable whether
the quality of existing data ought to be sufficient to resolve both frequencies over the last million years.

The transition problem


The transition problem refers to the
switch in the frequency of climate
variations 1 million years ago. From
1–3 million years, climate had a
dominant mode matching the 41ka
cycle in obliquity. After 1 million
years ago, this switchd to a 100ka
variation matching eccentricity, for
Variations of Cyle Times, curves determined from ocean sediments
which no reason has been established.
Milankovitch cycles 166

Identifying dominant factor


Milankovich himself believed that reductions in summer insolation in northern high latitudes was the dominant
factor leading to glaciation, which led to him (incorrectly) deducing an approximate 41kyr period for ice ages.[13]
Subsequent research has shown that the 100kyr eccentricity cycle is more important, resulting in 100,000-year ice
age cycles of the Quaternary glaciation over the last few million years.

Theory incomplete
The Milankovitch theory of climate change is not perfectly worked out; in particular, the greatest observed response
is at the 100,000-year timescale, but the forcing is apparently small at this scale, in regard to the ice ages.[14] Various
explanations for this discrepancy have been proposed, including frequency modulation[15] or various feedbacks
(from carbon dioxide, cosmic rays, or from ice sheet dynamics).

Present and future conditions


As mentioned above, at present,
perihelion occurs during the southern
hemisphere's summer and aphelion
during the southern winter. Thus the
southern hemisphere seasons should
tend to be somewhat more extreme Past and future of daily average insolation at top of the atmosphere on the day of the
than the northern hemisphere seasons. summer solstice, at 65 N latitude. The green curve is with eccentricity e hypothetically set
The relatively low eccentricity of the to 0. The red curve uses the actual (predicted) value of e. Blue dot is current conditions, at
2 ky AD
present orbit results in a 6.8%
difference in the amount of solar
radiation during summer in the two hemispheres.
Since orbital variations are predictable,[16] if one has a model that relates orbital variations to climate, it is possible to
run such a model forward to "predict" future climate. Two caveats are necessary: that anthropogenic effects may
modify or even overwhelm orbital effects and that the mechanism by which orbital forcing influences climate is not
well understood.
The amount of solar radiation (insolation) in the Northern Hemisphere at 65° N seems to be related to occurrence of
an ice age. Astronomical calculations show that 65° N summer insolation should increase gradually over the next
25,000 years. A regime of eccentricity lower than the current value will last for about the next 100,000 years.
Changes in northern hemisphere summer insolation will be dominated by changes in obliquity ε. No declines in 65°
N summer insolation, sufficient to cause a glacial period, are expected in the next 50,000 years.
An often-cited 1980 study by Imbrie and Imbrie determined that, "Ignoring anthropogenic and other possible sources
of variation acting at frequencies higher than one cycle per 19,000 years, this model predicts that the long-term
cooling trend which began some 6,000 years ago will continue for the next 23,000 years."[17]
More recent work by Berger and Loutre suggests that the current warm climate may last another 50,000 years.[18]
The best chances for a decline in northern hemisphere summer insolation that would be sufficient for triggering a
glacial period is at 130,000 years or possibly as far out at 620,000 years.[19]
Milankovitch cycles 167

References
[1] Hays, J.D.; Imbrie, J.; Shackleton, N.J. (1976). "Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages". Science 194 (4270): 1121–1132.
doi:10.1126/science.194.4270.1121. PMID 17790893.
[2] Girkin, Amy Negich (2005) (PDF). A Computational Study on the Evolution of the Dynamics of the Obliquity of the Earth (http:/ / etd.
ohiolink. edu/ send-pdf. cgi/ Girkin, Amy Negich. pdf?miami1133292203) (Master of Science thesis). Miami University. .
[3] Berger A., Loutre M.F., Mélice J.L. (2006). "Equatorial insolation: from precession harmonics to eccentricity frequencies" (http:/ / www.
clim-past-discuss. net/ 2/ 519/ 2006/ cpd-2-519-2006. pdf) (PDF). Clim. Past Discuss. 2 (4): 519–533. doi:10.5194/cpd-2-519-2006. .
[4] "Deliverables of IEA SHC - Task 26: Solar Combisystems" (PDF).
[5] http:/ / aa. usno. navy. mil/ data/ docs/ EarthSeasons. php
[6] Williams, D.M., Pollard, P. (2002). "Earth-like worlds on eccentric orbits: excursions beyond the habitable zone" (http:/ / physics. bd. psu.
edu/ faculty/ williams/ 3DEarthClimate/ ija2003. pdf). Inter. J. Astrobio. 1: 21–9. .
[7] Richard A Muller, Gordon J MacDonald (1997). "Glacial Cycles and Astronomical Forcing". Science 277 (1997/07/11): 215–8.
doi:10.1126/science.277.5323.215.
[8] "Origin of the 100 kyr Glacial Cycle: eccentricity or orbital inclination?" (http:/ / muller. lbl. gov/ papers/ nature. html). Richard A Muller. .
Retrieved March 2, 2005.
[9] Wunsch, Carl (2004). "Quantitative estimate of the Milankovitch-forced contribution to observed Quaternary climate change". Quaternary
Science Reviews 23 (9–10): 1001–12. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.02.014.
[10] Ghil, Michael (1994). "Cryothermodynamics: the chaotic dynamics of paleoclimate". Physica D 77 (1–3): 130–159.
doi:10.1016/0167-2789(94)90131-7.
[11] Gildor H, Tziperman E (2000). "Sea ice as the glacial cycles' climate switch: Role of seasonal and orbital forcing". Paleoceanography 15
(6): 605–615. Bibcode 2000PalOc..15..605G. doi:10.1029/1999PA000461.
[12] Zachos JC, Shackleton NJ, Revenaugh JS, Pälike H, Flower BP (April 2001). "Climate response to orbital forcing across the
Oligocene-Miocene boundary" (http:/ / www. scencemag. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=11303100). Science 292 (5515): 27–48.
doi:10.1126/science.1058288. PMID 11303100. .
[13] Imbrie and Imbrie; Ice Ages, solving the mystery, p 158
[14] Milankovitch, Milutin (1998) [1941]. Canon of Insolation and the Ice Age Problem. Belgrade: Zavod za Udz̆benike i Nastavna Sredstva.
ISBN 8617066199.; see also "Astronomical Theory of Climate Change" (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ paleo/ milankovitch. html). .
[15] http:/ / www. geolab. unc. edu/ faculty/ rial/ GPCRial2. pdf
[16] F. Varadi, B. Runnegar, M. Ghil (2003). "Successive Refinements in Long-Term Integrations of Planetary Orbits" (http:/ / astrobiology.
ucla. edu/ OTHER/ SSO/ SolarSysInt. pdf) (PDF). The Astrophysical Journal 592: 620–630. Bibcode 2003ApJ...592..620V.
doi:10.1086/375560. .
[17] J Imbrie, J Z Imbrie (1980). "Modeling the Climatic Response to Orbital Variations". Science 207 (1980/02/29): 943–953.
doi:10.1126/science.207.4434.943. PMID 17830447.
[18] Berger A, Loutre MF (2002). "Climate: An exceptionally long interglacial ahead?". Science 297 (5585): 1287–8.
doi:10.1126/science.1076120. PMID 12193773.
[19] http:/ / amper. ped. muni. cz/ gw/ articles/ html. format/ orb_forc. html

Further reading
• Roe G (2006). "In defense of Milankovitch". Geophysical Research Letters 33 (24): L24703.
Bibcode 2006GeoRL..3324703R. doi:10.1029/2006GL027817. This shows that Milankovitch theory fits the data
extremely well, over the past million years, provided that we consider derivatives.
• Zachos J, Pagani M, Sloan L, Thomas E, Billups K (2001). "Trends, Rhythms, and Aberrations in Global Climate
65 Ma to Present". Science 292 (5517): 686–693. doi:10.1126/science.1059412. PMID 11326091.
This review article discusses cycles and great-scale changes in the global climate during the Cenozoic Era.
Milankovitch cycles 168

External links
• Milankovitch Cycles and Glaciation (http://www.homepage.montana.edu/~geol445/hyperglac/time1/
milankov.htm)
• The Milankovitch band (http://web.archive.org/web/20080729060933/http://www.agu.org/revgeophys/
overpe00/node6.html), Internet Archive of American Geophysical Union lecture
• Some history of the adoption of the Milankovitch hypothesis (and an alternative) (http://muller.lbl.gov/pages/
IceAgeBook/IceAgeTheories.html)
• More detail on orbital obliquity also matching climate patterns (http://muller.lbl.gov/papers/sciencespectra.
htm)
• Graph of variation in insolation (http://www.museum.state.il.us/exhibits/ice_ages/insolation_graph.html)
Note 20,000 year, 100,000 year, and 400,000 year cycles are clearly visible.
• "Milutin Milankovitch" (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Milankovitch/milankovitch.php). On the
Shoulders of Giants. Retrieved January 15, 2010.
• Potential Problems with Milankovitch Theory (http://www.detectingdesign.com/milankovitch.html) by Sean
Pitman (http://www.detectingdesign.com)
• The Seasons (http://aa.usno.navy.mil/faq/docs/seasons_orbit.php)
• The NOAA page on Climate Forcing Data (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/forcing.html) includes
(calculated) data on orbital variations over the last 50 million years and for the coming 20 million years.
• The orbital simulations by Varadi, Ghil and Runnegar (2003) (http://astrobiology.ucla.edu/OTHER/SSO/)
provide another, slightly different series for orbital eccentricity, and also a series for orbital inclination
• ABC: Earth wobbles linked to extinctions (http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/2006/1763328.htm)

Orbital forcing
Orbital forcing is the effect on climate of slow changes in the tilt of the Earth's axis and shape of the orbit (see
Milankovitch cycles). These orbital changes change the total amount of sunlight reaching the Earth by up to 25% at
mid-latitudes (from 400 to 500 Wm−2 at latitudes of 60 degrees). In this context, the term "forcing" signifies a
physical process that affects the Earth's climate.
This mechanism is believed to be responsible for the timing of the ice age cycles. A strict application of the
Milankovitch theory does not allow the prediction of a "sudden" ice age (rapid being anything under a century or
two), since the fastest orbital period is about 20,000 years. The timing of past glacial periods coincides very well
with the predictions of the Milankovitch theory, and these effects can be calculated into the future.
Orbital forcing 169

Overview
It is sometimes asserted that the length of the current interglacial
temperature peak will be similar to the length of the preceding
interglacial peak (Sangamonian/Eem Stage), and that therefore we
might be nearing the end of this warm period. However, this
conclusion is probably mistaken: the lengths of previous interglacials
were not particularly regular (see graphic at right). Berger and Loutre
(2002) argue that “with or without human perturbations, the current
warm climate may last another 50,000 years. The reason is a minimum
in the eccentricity of Earth's orbit around the Sun.”[1] Also, Archer and
Ice core data. Note length of glacial cycles
Ganopolski (2005) report that probable future CO2 emissions may be
averages ~100,000 years. Blue curve is
enough to suppress the glacial cycle for the next 500 kyr.[2] temperature, green curve is CO2, and red curve is
windblown glacial dust (loess). Today's date is on
Note in the graphic the strong 100,000 year periodicity of the cycles,
the left side of the graph.
and the striking asymmetry of the curves. This asymmetry is believed
to result from complex interactions of feedback mechanisms. It has
been observed that ice ages deepen by progressive steps, but the recovery to interglacial conditions occurs in one big
step.
Orbital mechanics require that the length of the seasons be proportional to the swept areas of the seasonal quadrants,
so when the eccentricity is extreme, the seasons on the far side of the orbit can last substantially longer. Today, when
autumn and winter in the northern hemisphere occur at closest approach, the earth is moving at its maximum velocity
and therefore autumn and winter are slightly shorter than spring and summer.
Today, northern hemisphere summer is
4.66 days longer than winter and
spring is 2.9 days longer than
autumn.[3] As axial precession changes
the place in the Earth's orbit where the
solstices and equinoxes occur,
Northern hemisphere winters will get
longer and summers will get shorter,
eventually creating conditions believed
to be favorable for triggering the next glacial period.

The arrangements of land masses on the Earth's surface are believed to reinforce the orbital forcing effects.
Comparisons of plate tectonic continent reconstructions and paleoclimatic studies show that the Milankovitch cycles
have the greatest effect during geologic eras when landmasses have been concentrated in polar regions, as is the case
today. Greenland, Antarctica, and the northern portions of Europe, Asia, and North America are situated such that a
minor change in solar energy will tip the balance between year-round snow/ice preservation and complete summer
melting. The presence of snow and ice is a well-understood positive feedback mechanism for climate.
Orbital forcing 170

References
[1] Berger, A.; Loutre, M. F. (2002). "An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead?". Science 297 (5585): 1287–1288.
doi:10.1126/science.1076120. PMID 12193773.
[2] Archer, David; Ganopolski, Andrey (2005). "A Movable Trigger: Fossil Fuel CO2 And The Onset Of The Next Glaciation". Geochemistry
Geophysics Geosystems 6: Q05003. doi:10.1029/2004GC000891.
[3] Benson, Gregory (2007-12-11). "Global Warming, Ice Ages, and Sea Level Changes: Something new or an astronomical phenomenon
occurring in present day?" (https:/ / sites. google. com/ site/ bensonfamilyhomepage/ Home/ ice-age-and-global-warming). .

Further reading
• Hays, J. D.; Imbrie, John; Shackleton, N. J. (1976). "Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages".
Science 194 (4270): 1121–1132. doi:10.1126/science.194.4270.1121. PMID 17790893.
• Hays, James D. (1996). Schneider, Stephen H.. ed. Encyclopedia of Weather and Climate. New York: Oxford
University Press. pp. 507–508. ISBN 0195094859.
• Lutgens, Frederick K.; Tarbuck, Edward J. (1998). The Atmosphere. An Introduction to Meteorology. Upper
Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice-Hall. ISBN 0137429746.
• National Research Council (1982). Solar Variability, Weather, and Climate. Washington, D.C.: National
Academy Press. p. 7. ISBN 0309032849.

External links
• The NOAA page on Climate Forcing Data (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/forcing.html) includes
(calculated) data on orbital variations over the last 50 million years and for the coming 20 million years
• The orbital simulations by Varadi, Ghil and Runnegar (2003) (http://astrobiology.ucla.edu/OTHER/SSO/)
provide another, slightly different series for orbital eccentricity

Solar variation
Solar variation is the change in the amount of
radiation emitted by the Sun and in its spectral
distribution over years to millennia. These
variations have periodic components, the main
one being the approximately 11-year solar cycle
(or sunspot cycle). The changes also have
aperiodic fluctuations.[1] In recent decades, solar
activity has been measured by satellites, while
before it was estimated using 'proxy' variables.
Scientists studying climate change are interested
in understanding the effects of variations in the
total and spectral solar irradiance on Earth and
One composite of the last 30 years of solar variability
its climate.

Variations in total solar irradiance were too small to detect with technology available before the satellite era,
although the small fraction in ultra-violet light varies by a few percent. Total solar output is now measured to vary
(over the last three 11-year sunspot cycles) by approximately 0.1%[2] [3] [4] or about 1.3 Watts per square meter
(W/m2) peak-to-trough during the 11-year sunspot cycle. The amount of solar radiation received at the outer surface
of Earth's atmosphere averages 1366 W/m2.[5] [6] [7] There are no direct measurements of the longer-term variation,
and interpretations of proxy measures of variations differ. The intensity of solar radiation reaching Earth has been
Solar variation 171

relatively constant through the last 2000 years, with variations of around 0.1-0.2%.[8] [9] [10] Solar variation, together
with volcanic activity probably contributed to climate change, for example during the Maunder Minimum. However,
changes in solar brightness are too weak to explain recent climate change.[11]

History of study into solar variations


The longest recorded aspect of solar
variations are changes in sunspots. The
first record of sunspots dates to around
800 BC in China and the oldest
surviving drawing of a sunspot dates to
1128. In 1610, astronomers began
using the telescope to make
observations of sunspots and their
motions. Initial study was focused on
their nature and behavior.[12] Although 400 year history of sunspot numbers.

the physical aspects of sunspots were


not identified until the 20th century, observations continued. Study was hampered during the 17th century due to the
low number of sunspots during what is now recognized as an extended period of low solar activity, known as the
Maunder Minimum. By the 19th century, there was a long enough record of sunspot numbers to infer periodic cycles
in sunspot activity. In 1845, Princeton University professors Joseph Henry and Stephen Alexander observed the Sun
with a thermopile and determined that sunspots emitted less radiation than surrounding areas of the Sun. The
emission of higher than average amounts of radiation later were observed from the solar faculae.[13]

Around 1900, researchers began to explore connections between solar variations and weather on Earth. Of particular
note is the work of Charles Greeley Abbot. Abbot was assigned by the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory
(SAO) to detect changes in the radiation of the Sun. His team had to begin by inventing instruments to measure solar
radiation. Later, when Abbot was head of the SAO, it established a solar station at Calama, Chile to complement its
data from Mount Wilson Observatory. He detected 27 harmonic periods within the 273-month Hale cycles, including
7, 13, and 39 month patterns. He looked for connections to weather by means such as matching opposing solar trends
during a month to opposing temperature and precipitation trends in cities. With the advent of dendrochronology,
scientists such as Waldo S. Glock attempted to connect variation in tree growth to periodic solar variations in the
extant record and infer long-term secular variability in the solar constant from similar variations in millennial-scale
chronologies.[14]
Statistical studies that correlate weather and climate with solar activity have been popular for centuries, dating back
at least to 1801, when William Herschel noted an apparent connection between wheat prices and sunspot records.[15]
They now often involve high-density global datasets compiled from surface networks and weather satellite
observations and/or the forcing of climate models with synthetic or observed solar variability to investigate the
detailed processes by which the effects of solar variations propagate through the Earth's climate system.[16]

Solar activity and irradiance measurement


Direct irradiance measurements have only been available during the last three cycles and are based on a composite of
many different observing satellites.[17] [18] However, the correlation between irradiance measurements and other
proxies of solar activity make it reasonable to estimate past solar activity. Most important among these proxies is the
record of sunspot observations that has been recorded since ~1610. Since sunspots and associated faculae are directly
responsible for small changes in the brightness of the sun, they are closely correlated to changes in solar output.
Direct measurements of radio emissions from the Sun at 10.7 cm also provide a proxy of solar activity that can be
Solar variation 172

measured from the ground since the Earth's atmosphere is transparent at this wavelength. Lastly, solar flares are a
type of solar activity that can impact human life on Earth by affecting electrical systems, especially satellites. Flares
usually occur in the presence of sunspots, and hence the two are correlated, but flares themselves make only tiny
perturbations of the solar luminosity.
Recently, it has been claimed that the total solar irradiance is varying in ways that are not duplicated by changes in
sunspot observations or radio emissions. However, this conclusion is disputed. Some believe that shifts in irradiance
may be the result of calibration problems in the measuring satellites.[19] [20] These speculations also admit the
possibility that a small long-term trend might exist in solar irradiance.[21]

Sunspots
Sunspots are relatively dark areas on the
radiating 'surface' (photosphere) of the Sun
where intense magnetic activity inhibits
convection and cools the photosphere.
Faculae are slightly brighter areas that form
around sunspot groups as the flow of energy
to the photosphere is re-established and both
the normal flow and the sunspot-blocked
energy elevate the radiating 'surface'
temperature. Scientists have speculated on
possible relationships between sunspots and
solar luminosity since the historical sunspot
area record began in the 17th century.[22] [23] Graph showing proxies of solar activity, including changes in sunspot number and
Correlations are now known to exist with cosmogenic isotope production.

decreases in luminosity caused by sunspots


(generally < - 0.3 %) and increases (generally < + 0.05 %) caused both by faculae that are associated with active
regions as well as the magnetically active 'bright network'.[24] Modulation of the solar luminosity by magnetically
active regions was confirmed by satellite measurements of total solar irradiance (TSI) by the ACRIM1 experiment
on the Solar Maximum Mission (launched in 1980).[24] The modulations were later confirmed in the results of the
ERB experiment launched on the Nimbus 7 satellite in 1978.[25] Sunspots in magnetically active regions are cooler
and 'darker' than the average photosphere and cause temporary decreases in TSI of as much as 0.3 %. Faculae in
magnetically active regions are hotter and 'brighter' than the average photosphere and cause temporary increases in
TSI. The net effect during periods of enhanced solar magnetic activity is increased radiant output of the sun because
faculae are larger and persist longer than sunspots.

There had been some suggestion that variations in the solar diameter might cause variations in output. But recent
work, mostly from the Michelson Doppler Imager instrument on SOHO, shows these changes to be small, about
0.001% (Dziembowski et al., 2001).
Various studies have been made using sunspot number (for which records extend over hundreds of years) as a proxy
for solar output (for which good records only extend for a few decades). Also, ground instruments have been
calibrated by comparison with high-altitude and orbital instruments. Researchers have combined present readings
and factors to adjust historical data. Other proxy data — such as the abundance of cosmogenic isotopes — have been
used to infer solar magnetic activity and thus likely brightness.
Sunspot activity has been measured using the Wolf number for about 300 years. This index (also known as the
Zürich number) uses both the number of sunspots and the number of groups of sunspots to compensate for
variations in measurement. A 2003 study by Ilya Usoskin of the University of Oulu, Finland found that sunspots had
Solar variation 173

been more frequent since the 1940s than in the previous 1150 years.[26]
Sunspot numbers over the past 11,400 years
have been reconstructed using
dendrochronologically dated radiocarbon
concentrations. The level of solar activity
during the past 70 years is exceptional —
the last period of similar magnitude
occurred over 8,000 years ago. The Sun was
at a similarly high level of magnetic activity
for only ~10% of the past 11,400 years, and
almost all of the earlier high-activity periods
were shorter than the present episode.[27] Reconstruction of solar activity over 11,400 years. Period of equally high activity
over 8,000 years ago marked.

Solar activity events recorded in radiocarbon. Present period is on left. Values since 1900
not shown.

Solar activity events and approximate dates


Event Start End

Oort minimum (see Medieval Warm Period) 1040 1080

Medieval maximum (see Medieval Warm Period) 1100 1250

Wolf minimum 1280 1350

Spörer Minimum 1450 1550

Maunder Minimum 1645 1715

Dalton Minimum 1790 1820

Modern Maximum 1900 present

A list of historical Grand minima of solar activity [28] includes also Grand minima ca. 690 AD, 360 BC, 770 BC,
1390 BC, 2860 BC, 3340 BC, 3500 BC, 3630 BC, 3940 BC, 4230 BC, 4330 BC, 5260 BC, 5460 BC, 5620 BC, 5710
BC, 5990 BC, 6220 BC, 6400 BC, 7040 BC, 7310 BC, 7520 BC, 8220 BC, 9170 BC.
Solar variation 174

Solar cycles
Solar cycles are cyclic changes in behavior of the Sun. Many possible patterns have been suggested; only the 11 and
22 year cycles are clear in the observations.
• 11 years: Most obvious is a gradual
increase and more rapid decrease of the
number of sunspots over a period ranging
from 9 to 12 years, called the Schwabe
cycle, named after Heinrich Schwabe.
Differential rotation of the sun's
convection zone (as a function of
latitude) consolidates magnetic flux 2,300 year Hallstatt solar variation cycles.
tubes, increases their magnetic field
strength and makes them buoyant (see Babcock Model). As they rise through the solar atmosphere they partially
block the convective flow of energy, cooling their region of the photosphere, causing 'sunspots'. The Sun's
apparent surface, the photosphere, radiates more actively when there are more sunspots. Satellite monitoring of
solar luminosity since 1980 has shown there is a direct relationship between the solar activity (sunspot) cycle and
luminosity with a solar cycle peak-to-peak amplitude of about 0.1 %.[2] Luminosity has also been found to
decrease by as much as 0.3 % on a 10 day timescale when large groups of sunspots rotate across the Earth's view
and increase by as much as 0.05 % for up to 6 months due to faculae associated with the large sunspot groups.[24]

• 22 years: Hale cycle, named after George Ellery Hale. The magnetic field of the Sun reverses during each
Schwabe cycle, so the magnetic poles return to the same state after two reversals.
• 87 years (70–100 years): Gleissberg cycle, named after Wolfgang Gleißberg, is thought to be an amplitude
modulation of the 11-year Schwabe Cycle (Sonnett and Finney, 1990),[29] Braun, et al., (2005).[30]
• 210 years: Suess cycle (a.k.a. de Vries cycle). Braun, et al., (2005).[30]
• 2,300 years: Hallstatt cycle[31] [32]
• 6000 years (Xapsos and Burke, 2009).[33]
Other patterns have been detected:
• In carbon-14: 105, 131, 232, 385, 504, 805, 2,241 years (Damon and Sonnett, 1991).
• During the Upper Permian 240 million years ago, mineral layers created in the Castile Formation show cycles of
2,500 years.
The sensitivity of climate to cyclical variations in solar forcing will be higher for longer cycles due to the thermal
inertia of the ocean, which acts to damp high frequencies. Using a phenomenological approach, Scafetta and West
(2005) found that the climate was 1.5 times as sensitive to 22 year cyclical forcing relative to 11 year cyclical
forcing, and that the thermal inertial induced a lag of approximately 2.2 years in cyclic climate response in the
temperature data.[34]

Predictions based on patterns


• A simple model based on emulating harmonics by multiplying the basic 11-year cycle by powers of 2 produced
results similar to Holocene behavior. Extrapolation suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with
intermittent minor warmups and a return to near Little Ice Age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool
period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to
the previous Holocene Maximum.[35]
• There is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90
years (Gleisberg cycle). These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed
sunspot number of about 145±30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70±30 in
2023.[36]
Solar variation 175

• Because carbon-14 cycles are quasi periodic, Damon and Sonett (1989) predict future climate:[37]
Solar irradiance, or insolation, is the
amount of sunlight which reaches the
Earth. The equipment used might
measure optical brightness, total
radiation, or radiation in various
frequencies. Historical estimates use
various measurements and proxies.

Solar irradiance spectrum above atmosphere and at surface

Cycle length Cycle name Last positive Next "warming"


carbon-14 anomaly

232 --?-- AD 1922 (cool) AD 2038

208 Suess AD 1898 (cool) AD 2210

88 Gleisberg AD 1986 (cool) AD 2030

Solar irradiance of Earth and its surface


There are two common meanings:
• the radiation reaching the upper
atmosphere
• the radiation reaching some point within
the atmosphere, including the surface.
Various gases within the atmosphere absorb
some solar radiation at different
wavelengths, and clouds and dust also affect
it. Measurements above the atmosphere are
needed to determine variations in solar
output, to avoid the confounding effects of
changes within the atmosphere. There is
some evidence that sunshine at the Earth's
surface has been decreasing in the last
50 years (see global dimming) possibly
caused by increased atmospheric pollution,
whilst over roughly the same timespan solar output has been nearly constant.
Solar variation 176

Milankovitch cycle variations


Some variations in insolation are not due to solar changes but rather due to the Earth moving closer or further from
the Sun, or changes in the latitudinal distribution of radiation. These have caused variations of as much as 25%
(locally; global average changes are much smaller) in solar insolation over long periods. The most recent significant
event was an axial tilt of 24° during boreal summer at near the time of the Holocene climatic optimum.

Solar interactions with Earth


There are several hypotheses for how solar variations may affect Earth. Some variations, such as changes in the size
of the Sun, are presently only of interest in the field of astronomy.

Changes in total irradiance


• Total solar irradiance changes slowly on decadal and longer timescales.
• The variation during recent solar magnetic activity cycles has been about 0.1% (peak-to-peak).[2]
• Variations corresponding to solar changes with periods of 9–13, 18–25, and >100 years have been detected in
sea-surface temperatures.
• In contrast to older reconstructions,[38] most recent reconstructions of total solar irradiance point to an only small
increase of only about 0.05 % to 0.1 % between Maunder Minimum and the present.[39] [40] [41]
• Different composite reconstructions of total solar irradiance observations by satellites show different trends since
1980; see the global warming section below.

Changes in ultraviolet irradiance


• Ultraviolet irradiance (EUV) varies by approximately 1.5 percent from solar maxima to minima, for 200 to
300 nm UV.[42]
• Energy changes in the UV wavelengths involved in production and loss of ozone have atmospheric effects.
• The 30 hPa atmospheric pressure level has changed height in phase with solar activity during the last 4 solar
cycles.
• UV irradiance increase causes higher ozone production, leading to stratospheric heating and to poleward
displacements in the stratospheric and tropospheric wind systems.
• A proxy study estimates that UV has increased by 3% since the Maunder Minimum.

Changes in the solar wind and the Sun's magnetic flux


• A more active solar wind and stronger magnetic field reduces the cosmic rays striking the Earth's atmosphere.
• Variations in the solar wind affect the size and intensity of the heliosphere, the volume larger than the Solar
System filled with solar wind particles.
• Cosmogenic production of 14C, 10Be and 36Cl show changes tied to solar activity.
• Cosmic ray ionization in the upper atmosphere does change, but significant effects are not obvious.
• As the solar coronal-source magnetic flux doubled during the past century, the cosmic-ray flux has decreased by
about 15%.
• The Sun's total magnetic flux rose by a factor of 1.41 from 1964–1996 and by a factor of 2.3 since 1901.
Solar variation 177

Effects on clouds
• Cosmic rays have been hypothesized to affect formation of clouds through possible effects on production of cloud
condensation nuclei. Observational evidence for such a relationship is inconclusive.
• 1983–1994 data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) showed that global low cloud
formation was highly correlated with cosmic ray flux; subsequent to this the correlation breaks down.[43]

Other effects due to solar variation


Interaction of solar particles, the solar magnetic field, and the Earth's magnetic field, cause variations in the particle
and electromagnetic fields at the surface of the planet. Extreme solar events can affect electrical devices. Weakening
of the Sun's magnetic field is believed to increase the number of interstellar cosmic rays which reach Earth's
atmosphere, altering the types of particles reaching the surface. It has been speculated that a change in cosmic rays
could cause an increase in certain types of clouds, affecting Earth's albedo.

Geomagnetic effects
The Earth's polar aurorae are visual displays created by interactions
between the solar wind, the solar magnetosphere, the Earth's magnetic
field, and the Earth's atmosphere. Variations in any of these affect
aurora displays.
Sudden changes can cause the intense disturbances in the Earth's
magnetic fields which are called geomagnetic storms.
Solar particles interact with Earth's
Solar proton events magnetosphere

Energetic protons can reach Earth within 30 minutes of a major flare's


peak. During such a solar proton event, Earth is showered in energetic solar particles (primarily protons) released
from the flare site. Some of these particles spiral down Earth's magnetic field lines, penetrating the upper layers of
our atmosphere where they produce additional ionization and may produce a significant increase in the radiation
environment.

Galactic cosmic rays


An increase in solar activity (more sunspots) is accompanied by an
increase in the "solar wind," which is an outflow of ionized particles,
mostly protons and electrons, from the sun. The Earth's geomagnetic
field, the solar wind, and the solar magnetic field deflect galactic
cosmic rays (GCR). A decrease in solar activity increases the GCR
penetration of the troposphere and stratosphere. GCR particles are the
primary source of ionization in the troposphere above 1 km (below
1 km, radon is a dominant source of ionization in many areas).

Levels of GCRs have been indirectly recorded by their influence on the


Solar wind and magnetic field create heliosphere
production of carbon-14 and beryllium-10. The Hallstatt solar cycle around solar system.
length of approximately 2300 years is reflected by climatic
Dansgaard-Oeschger events. The 80–90 year solar Gleissberg cycles appear to vary in length depending upon the
lengths of the concurrent 11 year solar cycles, and there also appear to be similar climate patterns occurring on this
time scale.
Solar variation 178

Cloud effects
Changes in ionization affect the abundance of aerosols that serve as the nuclei of condensation for cloud
formation.[44] As a result, ionization levels potentially affect levels of condensation, low clouds, relative humidity,
and albedo due to clouds. Clouds formed from greater amounts of condensation nuclei are brighter, longer lived, and
likely to produce less precipitation. Changes of 3–4% in cloudiness and concurrent changes in cloud top
temperatures have been correlated to the 11 and 22 year solar (sunspot) cycles, with increased GCR levels during
"antiparallel" cycles.[45] Global average cloud cover change has been found to be 1.5–2%. Several studies of GCR
and cloud cover variations have found positive correlation at latitudes greater than 50° and negative correlation at
lower latitudes.[44] However, not all scientists accept this correlation as statistically significant, and some that do
attribute it to other solar variability (e.g. UV or total irradiance variations) rather than directly to GCR changes.[46]
[47]
Difficulties in interpreting such correlations include the fact that many aspects of solar variability change at
similar times, and some climate systems have delayed responses.

Carbon-14 production
The production of carbon-14 (radiocarbon:
14
C) also is related to solar activity.
Carbon-14 is produced in the upper
atmosphere when cosmic ray bombardment
of atmospheric nitrogen (14N) induces the
Nitrogen to undergo β+ decay, thus
transforming into an unusual isotope of
Carbon with an atomic weight of 14 rather
than the more common 12. Because cosmic
rays are partially excluded from the Solar
System by the outward sweep of magnetic
fields in the solar wind, increased solar Sunspot record (blue) with 14C (inverted).

activity results in a reduction of cosmic rays


reaching the Earth's atmosphere and thus reduces 14C production. Thus the cosmic ray intensity and carbon-14
production vary inversely to the general level of solar activity.[48]

Therefore, the atmospheric 14C concentration is lower during sunspot maxima and higher during sunspot minima.
By measuring the captured 14C in wood and counting tree rings, production of radiocarbon relative to recent wood
can be measured and dated. A reconstruction of the past 10,000 years shows that the 14C production was much
higher during the mid-Holocene 7,000 years ago and decreased until 1,000 years ago. In addition to variations in
solar activity, the long term trends in carbon-14 production are influenced by changes in the Earth's geomagnetic
field and by changes in carbon cycling within the biosphere (particularly those associated with changes in the extent
of vegetation since the last ice age).[49]
Solar variation 179

Global warming
See Solar constant#Variation.

References

Footnotes
[1] Satellite observations of total solar irradiance (http:/ / www. acrim. com)
[2] Willson, Richard C.; H.S. Hudson (1991). "The Sun's luminosity over a complete solar cycle" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/
v351/ n6321/ abs/ 351042a0. html). Nature 351 (6321): 42–4. doi:10.1038/351042a0. .
[3] "Solar Forcing of Climate" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 244. htm). Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The
Scientific Basis. . Retrieved 2005-03-10.
[4] Weart, Spencer (2006). "The Discovery of Global Warming" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ index. html). In Weart, Spencer.
American Institute of Physics. . Retrieved 2007-04-14.
[5] http:/ / acrim. com/ TSI%20Monitoring. htm
[6] Willson, R. C.; Mordvinov, A. V. (2003). "Secular total solar irradiance trend during solar cycles 21–23" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ gl/
gl0905/ 2008GL036307). Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 (5): 1199. Bibcode 2003GeoRL..30e...3W. doi:10.1029/2002GL016038. .
[7] "Construction of a Composite Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Time Series from 1978 to present" (http:/ / www. pmodwrc. ch/ pmod.
php?topic=tsi/ composite/ SolarConstant). Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos (PMOD). . Retrieved 2005-10-05.
[8] Committee on Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on
Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council of the National Academies. (2006). "Climate Forcings and Climate Models" (http:/ / books.
nap. edu/ openbook. php?record_id=11676& page=102). In North, Gerald R.; Biondi, Franco; Bloomfield, Peter et al.. Surface Temperature
Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (http:/ / www. nap. edu/ catalog. php?record_id=11676). National Academies Press.
ISBN 0-309-10225-1. . Retrieved 19 April 2007.
[9] Lean, J. (2000). "Evolution of the Sun's Spectral Irradiance Since the Maunder Minimum" (ftp:/ / ftp. ncdc. noaa. gov/ pub/ data/ paleo/
climate_forcing/ solar_variability/ lean2000_irradiance. txt). Geophysical Research Letters 27 (16): 2425–8. Bibcode 2000GeoRL..27.2425L.
doi:10.1029/2000GL000043. .
[10] Scafetta, N.; West, B. J. (2006). "Phenomenological solar signature in 400 years of reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperature record"
(http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ gl/ gl0617/ 2006GL027142/ ). Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 (17): L17718. Bibcode 2006GeoRL..3317718S.
doi:10.1029/2006GL027142. .
[11] UCAR (September 13, 2006). "Changes In Solar Brightness Too Weak To Explain Global Warming" (http:/ / www. ucar. edu/ news/
releases/ 2006/ brightness. shtml). Press release. . Retrieved 18 April 2007.
[12] "Great Moments in the History of Solar Physics 1" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20060301083022/ http:/ / web. hao. ucar. edu/ public/
education/ sp/ great_moments. html). Great Moments in the History of Solar Physics. Archived from the original (http:/ / web. hao. ucar. edu/
public/ education/ sp/ great_moments. html) on March 1, 2006. . Retrieved 2006-03-19.
[13] Arctowski, Henryk (1940). "On Solar Faculae and Solar Constant Variations" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ reprint/ 26/ 6/ 406. pdf) (PDF).
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 26 (6): 406–11. doi:10.1073/pnas.26.6.406. PMC 1078196. PMID 16588370. .
[14] Fritts, Harold C. (1976). Tree rings and climate. Boston: Academic Press. ISBN 0-12-268450-8.
[15] "William Herschel (1738–1822)" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070607215435/ http:/ / www. hao. ucar. edu/ Public/ education/ bios/
herschel. html). High Altitude Observatory. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. hao. ucar. edu/ Public/ education/ bios/ herschel. html)
on June 7, 2007. . Retrieved 2008-02-27.
[16] Camp, Charles D.; Tung, Ka-Kit; Quinif, Yves; Kaufman, Olivier; Van Ruymbeke, Michel; Vandiepenbeeck, Marc; Camelbeeck, Thierry
(2006). "The Influence of the Solar Cycle and QBO on the Late Winter Stratospheric Polar Vortex" (http:/ / www. amath. washington. edu/
research/ articles/ Tung/ journals/ camp-tung-0721-revised. pdf) (PDF). EOS Trans. AGU 87 (52): Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract #A11B–0862.
Bibcode 2006EOSTr..87..298V. doi:10.1029/2006EO300005. . Retrieved 28 April 2009.
[17] TSI Composites (http:/ / www. acrim. com/ TSI Monitoring. htm)
[18] http:/ / www. pmodwrc. ch/ pmod. php?topic=tsi/ composite/ SolarConstant
[19] Richard C. Willson, Alexander V. Mordvinov (2003). "Secular total solar irradiance trend during solar cycles 21–23". Geophysical
Research Letters 30 (5): 1199. Bibcode 2003GeoRL..30e...3W. doi:10.1029/2002GL016038.
[20] Steven DeWitte, Dominiqu Crommelynck, Sabri Mekaoui, and Alexandre Joukoff (2004). "MEASUREMENT AND UNCERTAINTY OF
THE LONG-TERM TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE TREND". Solar Physics 224 (1-2): 209–216. doi:10.1007/s11207-005-5698-7.
[21] Fröhlich, C. and J. Lean (2004). "Solar Radiative Output and its Variability: Evidence and Mechanisms". Astronomy and Astrophysical
Reviews 12 (4): 273–320. doi:10.1007/s00159-004-0024-1. 10.1007/s00159-004-0024-1.
[22] Eddy, J.A. (1990). "Samuel P. Langley (1834–1906)" (http:/ / www. hao. ucar. edu/ Public/ education/ bios/ langley. html). Journal for the
History of Astronomy 21: 111–20. .
[23] Foukal, P. V.; Mack, P. E.; Vernazza, J. E. (1977). "The effect of sunspots and faculae on the solar constant" (http:/ / ucp. uchicago. edu/
cgi-bin/ resolve?id=doi:10. 1086/ 155431). The Astrophysical Journal 215: 952. Bibcode 1977ApJ...215..952F. doi:10.1086/155431. .
Solar variation 180

[24] Willson RC, Gulkis S, Janssen M, Hudson HS, Chapman GA (February 1981). "Observations of Solar Irradiance Variability" (http:/ / www.
sciencemag. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=17776650). Science 211 (4483): 700–2. doi:10.1126/science.211.4483.700.
PMID 17776650. .
[25] J. R. Hickey, B. M. Alton, H. L. Kyle and E. R. Major (1988). "Observation of total solar irradiance (TSI) variability from Nimbus
satellites" (http:/ / www. sciencedirect. com/ science?_ob=ArticleURL& _udi=B6V3S-472BJN2-8F& _user=10& _coverDate=12/ 31/ 1988&
_rdoc=1& _fmt=high& _orig=search& _sort=d& _docanchor=& view=c& _searchStrId=1254179665& _rerunOrigin=google&
_acct=C000050221& _version=1& _urlVersion=0& _userid=10& md5=affa6a3023aac8f07070df80fc72cce1). Advances in Space Research 8
(7): 5–10. doi:10.1016/0273-1177(88)90164-0. .
[26] Usoskin, Ilya G.; Solanki, Sami K.; Schüssler, Manfred; Mursula, Kalevi; Alanko, Katja (2003). "A Millennium Scale Sunspot Number
Reconstruction: Evidence For an Unusually Active Sun Since the 1940’s". Physical Review Letters 91 (21): 211101. arXiv:astro-ph/0310823.
Bibcode 2003PhRvL..91u1101U. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.91.211101.
[27] Solanki, Sami K.; Usoskin, Ilya G.; Kromer, Bernd; Schüssler, Manfred; Beer, Jürg (2004). "Unusual activity of the Sun during recent
decades compared to the previous 11,000 years" (http:/ / cc. oulu. fi/ ~usoskin/ personal/ nature02995. pdf) (PDF). Nature 431 (7012):
1084–7. doi:10.1038/nature02995. PMID 15510145. . Retrieved 17 April 2007., "11,000 Year Sunspot Number Reconstruction" (http:/ /
gcmd. nasa. gov/ KeywordSearch/ Metadata. do?Portal=GCMD& KeywordPath=[Parameters:Category='EARTH+
SCIENCE',Topic='SUN-EARTH+ INTERACTIONS',Term='SOLAR+ ACTIVITY',Variable='SUNSPOTS']& OrigMetadataNode=GCMD&
EntryId=NOAA_NCDC_PALEO_2005-015& MetadataView=Brief& MetadataType=0& lbnode=gcmd3b). Global Change Master Directory.
. Retrieved 2005-03-11.
[28] Usoskin, Ilya G.; Solanki, Sami K.; Kovaltsov, Gennady A. (2007). "Grand minima and maxima of solar activity: new observational
constraints" (http:/ / cc. oulu. fi/ ~usoskin/ personal/ aa7704-07. pdf) (PDF). Astron. Astrophys. 471 (1): 301–9.
Bibcode 2007A&A...471..301U. doi:10.1051/0004-6361:20077704. .
[29] Sonett, C. P.; Finney, S. A.; Berger, A. (April 24, 1990). "The Spectrum of Radiocarbon". Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lon. A 330 (1615): 413–26.
[30] Braun, H; Christl, M; Rahmstorf, S; Ganopolski, A; Mangini, A; Kubatzki, C; Roth, K; Kromer, B (10 November 2005). "Possible solar
origin of the 1,470-year glacial climate cycle demonstrated in a coupled model" (http:/ / www. awi. de/ fileadmin/ user_upload/ Research/
Research_Divisions/ Climate_Sciences/ Paleoclimate_Dynamics/ Modelling/ Methods/ PossibleSolar. pdf). Nature 438 (7065): 208–11.
doi:10.1038/nature04121. PMID 16281042. .
[31] "The Sun and Climate" (http:/ / pubs. usgs. gov/ fs/ fs-0095-00/ fs-0095-00. pdf) (PDF). U.S. Geological Survey. Fact Sheet 0095-00. .
[32] Vasiliev, S. S.; Dergachev, V. A. (2002). "The ~ 2400-year cycle in atmospheric radiocarbon concentration: bispectrum of 14C data over the
last 8000 years" (http:/ / www. ann-geophys. net/ 20/ 115/ 2002/ angeo-20-115-2002. pdf). ANGEO 20 (1): 115–20. .
[33] Xapsos, M. A.; Burke, E. A. (July 2009). "Evidence of 6 000-Year Periodicity in Reconstructed Sunspot Numbers". Solar Physics 257 (2):
363–9. doi:10.1007/s11207-009-9380-3.
[34] Scafetta, Nicola; West, Bruce J. (2005). "Estimated solar contribution to the global surface warming using the ACRIM TSI satellite
composite" (http:/ / www. fel. duke. edu/ ~scafetta/ pdf/ 2005GL023849. pdf) (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters 32 (18): L18713.
Bibcode 2005GeoRL..3218713S. doi:10.1029/2005GL023849. .
[35] Perry, Charles A.; Hsu, Kenneth J. (2000). "Geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate
change" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ reprint/ 97/ 23/ 12433. pdf) (PDF). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 97 (23): 12433–8.
doi:10.1073/pnas.230423297. PMC 18780. PMID 11050181. .
[36] Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M. (2004). "What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/
20060104223339/ http:/ / science. msfc. nasa. gov/ ssl/ pad/ solar/ papers/ hathadh/ HathawayWilson2004. pdf) (PDF). Solar physics 224
(1–2): 5–19. doi:10.1007/s11207-005-3996-8. Archived from the original (http:/ / science. msfc. nasa. gov/ ssl/ pad/ solar/ papers/ hathadh/
HathawayWilson2004. pdf) on January 4, 2006. . Retrieved 19 April 2007.
[37] "Solar Variability: climatic change resulting from changes in the amount of solar energy reaching the upper atmosphere." (http:/ / www. geo.
arizona. edu/ palynology/ geos462/ 20climsolar. html). Introduction to Quaternary Ecology. . Retrieved 2005-03-11.
[38] Board on Global Change, Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources, National Research Council. (1994). Solar Influences
on Global Change (http:/ / books. nap. edu/ openbook. php?record_id=4778& page=R1). Washington, D.C: National Academy Press. p. 36.
ISBN 0-309-05148-7. .
[39] Wang, Y.-M.; Lean, J. L.; Sheeley, N. R. (2005). "Modeling the Sun's magnetic field and irradiance since 1713" (http:/ / www. climatesci.
org/ publications/ pdf/ Wang_2005. pdf). The Astrophysical journal 625 (1): 522–38. Bibcode 2005ApJ...625..522W. doi:10.1086/429689. .
[40] Krivova, N. A.; Balmaceda, L.; Solanki, S. K. (2007). "Reconstruction of solar total irradiance since 1700 from the surface magnetic flux"
(http:/ / www. aanda. org/ articles/ aa/ abs/ 2007/ 19/ aa6725-06/ aa6725-06. html). A&A 467 (1): 335–46. Bibcode 2007A&A...467..335K.
doi:10.1051/0004-6361:20066725. .
[41] Steinhilber, F.; Beer, J.; Fröhlich, C. (2009). "Total solar irradiance during the Holocene". Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 (19): L19704.
Bibcode 2009GeoRL..3619704S. doi:10.1029/2009GL040142.
[42] Lean, J. (14 April 1989). "Contribution of Ultraviolet Irradiance Variations to Changes in the Sun's Total Irradiance (http:/ / www.
sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 244/ 4901/ 197) Science"]. Science 244 (4901): 197–200. doi:10.1126/science.244.4901.197.
PMID 17835351. . "1 percent of the sun's energy is emitted at ultraviolet wavelengths between 200 and 300 nanometers, the decrease in this
radiation from 1 July 1981 to 30 June 1985 accounted for 19 percent of the decrease in the total irradiance". (19% of the 1/1366 total decrease
is 1.4% decrease in UV)
Solar variation 181

[43] Damon, Paul E.; Paul Laut (28 2004). "Pattern of Strange Errors Plagues Solar Activity and Terrestrial Climate Data" (http:/ /
stephenschneider. stanford. edu/ Publications/ PDF_Papers/ DamonLaut2004. pdf) (PDF). Eos 85 (39September): 370–4.
Bibcode 2004EOSTr..85..370D. doi:10.1029/2004EO390005. . Retrieved October 5, 2005.
[44] Tinsley, Brian A.; Yu, Fangqun (2004). "Atmospheric Ionization and Clouds as Links Between Solar Activity and Climate" (http:/ / www.
utdallas. edu/ physics/ pdf/ Atmos_060302. pdf). In Pap, Judit M.; Fox, Peter. Solar Variability and its Effects on Climate. 141. American
Geophysical Union. pp. 321–339. ISBN 0-87590-406-8. . Retrieved 19 April 2007.
[45] Svensmark, Henrik (1998). "Influence of Cosmic Rays on Earth's Climate" (http:/ / www. cosis. net/ abstracts/ COSPAR02/ 00975/
COSPAR02-A-00975. pdf) (PDF). Physical Review Letters 81 (22): 5027–5030. Bibcode 1998PhRvL..81.5027S.
doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.81.5027. . Retrieved 19 April 2007.
[46] E. Pallé, C.J. Butler, K. O'Brien (2004). "The possible connection between ionization in the atmosphere by cosmic rays and low level
clouds" (http:/ / www. arm. ac. uk/ preprints/ 433. pdf) (PDF). Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 66 (18): 1779.
doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2004.07.041. .
[47] Pallé, E. (2005). "Possible satellite perspective effects on the reported correlations between solar activity and clouds" (http:/ / bbso. njit. edu/
Research/ EarthShine/ literature/ Palle_2005_GRL. pdf) (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters 32 (3): L03802.1–4.
Bibcode 2005GeoRL..3203802P. doi:10.1029/2004GL021167. .
[48] "Astronomy: On the Sunspot Cycle" (http:/ / users. zoominternet. net/ ~matto/ M. C. A. S/ sunspot_cycle. htm). . Retrieved 2008-02-27.
[49] Landscheidt, Theodor (21 September 2003). "Variations in CO2 Growth Rate Associated with Solar Activity" (http:/ / www. john-daly. com/
theodor/ co2new. htm). John-daly.com — website of John Lawrence Daly. . Retrieved 2007-04-19.

• "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis" (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/122.htm).


Retrieved 2005-10-05.
• Shaviv, Nir J.; Veizer, Ján (2003). "Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate?" (http://www.gsajournals.org/
archive/1052-5173/13/7/pdf/i1052-5173-13-7-4.pdf) (PDF). GSA Today 13 (7): 4–10.
doi:10.1130/1052-5173(2003)013<0004:CDOPC>2.0.CO;2. Retrieved 19 April 2007.
• "http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/FACULTY/POPP/Rahmstorf%20et%20al.%202004%20EOS.pdf"
(http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/FACULTY/POPP/Rahmstorf et al.2004 EOS.pdf) (PDF). Retrieved
2005-10-05.

General references
• Abbot, C. G. (1966). "Solar Variation, A Weather Element" (http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/56/6/1627.
pdf) (PDF). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 56 (6): 1627–34. doi:10.1073/pnas.56.6.1627. PMC 220145.
PMID 16591394.
• Willson, Richard C.; H.S. Hudson (1991). "The Sun's luminosity over a complete solar cycle" (http://www.
nature.com/nature/journal/v351/n6321/abs/351042a0.html). Nature 351 (6321): 42–4.
doi:10.1038/351042a0.
• "The Sun and Climate" (http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-0095-00/). U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 0095-00.
Retrieved 2005-02-21.
• "The Sun's role in Climate Changes" (http://web.archive.org/web/20041022012450/http://zeus.nascom.
nasa.gov/~pbrekke/articles/halifax_brekke.pdf) (PDF). Proc. of The International Conference on Global
Warming and The Next Ice Age, 19–24 August 2001, Halifax, Nova Scotia.. Archived from the original (http://
zeus.nascom.nasa.gov/~pbrekke/articles/halifax_brekke.pdf) on October 22, 2004. Retrieved 2005-02-21.
• White, Warren B.; Lean, Judith; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D. (1997). "Response of global upper
ocean temperature to changing solar irradiance" (http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/1997/96JC03549.shtml).
Journal of Geophysical Research 102 (C2): 3255–66. Bibcode 1997JGR...102.3255W. doi:10.1029/96JC03549.
• Foukal, Peter; et al. (1977). "The effects of sunspots and faculae on the solar constant". Astrophysical Journal
215: 952. Bibcode 1977ApJ...215..952F. doi:10.1086/155431.
• Dziembowski, W.A.; P.R. Goode, and J. Schou (2001). "Does the sun shrink with increasing magnetic activity?".
Astrophysical Journal 553 (2): 897–904. Bibcode 2001ApJ...553..897D. doi:10.1086/320976.
• Stetson, H.T. (1937). Sunspots and Their Effects. New York: McGraw Hill.
Solar variation 182

External links
• Gerrit Lohmann, Norel Rimbu, Mihai Dima (2004). "Climate signature of solar irradiance variations: analysis of
long-term instrumental, historical, and proxy data" (http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/abstract/
109062443/ABSTRACT). International Journal of Climatology 24 (8): 1045–56. doi:10.1002/joc.1054.
• Solar Climatic Effects (Recent Influence) — Summary. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global
Change. 19 March 2003. http://www.co2science.org/subject/s/summaries/solarrecin.htm
• NOAA / NESDIS / NGDC (2002) Solar Variability Affecting Earth (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/CDROM/
solar_variability.html) NOAA CD-ROM NGDC-05/01. This CD-ROM contains over 100 solar-terrestrial and
related global data bases covering the period through April 1990. http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/CDROM/
solar_variability.html
• Solanki, S.K.; Fligge, M. (2001). Long-term changes in solar irradiance (http://www.astro.phys.ethz.ch/
papers/fligge/solspa_2.pdf). ESA Publications Division. ESA SP-463.
• Solanki, S.K.; Fligge, M. (2000). "Reconstruction of past solar irradiance" (http://www.astro.phys.ethz.ch/
papers/fligge/solfli_rev.pdf). Space Science Review 94 (1/2): 127–38. doi:10.1023/A:1026754803423.
• Reid, George C. (1995). "The sun-climate question: Is there a real connection?" (http://www.agu.org/
revgeophys/reid00/reid00.html). Rev. Geophys. 33 (Suppl). Aeronomy Laboratory, NOAA/ERL, Boulder,
Colorado. U.S. National Report to IUGG, 1991–1994
• Recent Total Solar Irradiance data (http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/data/tsi_data.htm) updated every Monday

Volcano

Cleveland Volcano in the Aleutian Islands of Alaska photographed


from the International Space Station, May 2006

Cross-section through a stratovolcano (vertical scale is exaggerated):

1. Large magma chamber 9. Layers of lava emitted by the


2. Bedrock volcano
3. Conduit (pipe) 10. Throat
4. Base 11. Parasitic cone
5. Sill 12. Lava flow
6. Dike 13. Vent
7. Layers of ash emitted by the 14. Crater
volcano 15. Ash cloud
8. Flank
Volcano 183

A volcano is an opening, or rupture, in a planet's surface or crust,


which allows hot magma, volcanic ash and gases to escape from below
the surface.
Volcanoes are generally found where tectonic plates are diverging or
converging. A mid-oceanic ridge, for example the Mid-Atlantic Ridge,
has examples of volcanoes caused by divergent tectonic plates pulling
apart; the Pacific Ring of Fire has examples of volcanoes caused by
convergent tectonic plates coming together. By contrast, volcanoes are
usually not created where two tectonic plates slide past one another.
Volcanoes can also form where there is stretching and thinning of the
Earth's crust in the interiors of plates, e.g., in the East African Rift, the Pinatubo ash plume reaching a height of 19 km, 3
days before the climactic eruption of 15 June
Wells Gray-Clearwater volcanic field and the Rio Grande Rift in North
1991
America. This type of volcanism falls under the umbrella of "Plate
hypothesis" volcanism.[1]

Intraplate volcanism has also been postulated to be caused by mantle plumes. These so-called "hotspots", for
example Hawaii, are postulated to arise from upwelling diapirs from the core-mantle boundary, 3,000 km deep in the
Earth.

Etymology
The word volcano is derived from the name of Vulcano, a volcanic island in the Aeolian Islands of Italy whose name
in turn originates from Vulcan, the name of a god of fire in Roman mythology.[2] The study of volcanoes is called
volcanology, sometimes spelled vulcanology.

Plate tectonics

Divergent plate boundaries


At the mid-oceanic ridges, two tectonic
plates diverge from one another. New
oceanic crust is being formed by hot molten
rock slowly cooling and solidifying. The
crust is very thin at mid-oceanic ridges due
to the pull of the tectonic plates. The release
of pressure due to the thinning of the crust
leads to adiabatic expansion, and the partial
melting of the mantle causing volcanism and Map showing the divergent plate boundaries (OSR – Oceanic Spreading Ridges)
creating new oceanic crust. Most divergent and recent sub aerial volcanoes.

plate boundaries are at the bottom of the


oceans, therefore most volcanic activity is submarine, forming new seafloor. Black smokers or deep sea vents are an
example of this kind of volcanic activity. Where the mid-oceanic ridge is above sea-level, volcanic islands are
formed, for example, Iceland.
Volcano 184

Convergent plate boundaries


Subduction zones are places where two plates, usually an oceanic plate
and a continental plate, collide. In this case, the oceanic plate subducts,
or submerges under the continental plate forming a deep ocean trench
just offshore. Water released from the subducting plate lowers the
melting temperature of the overlying mantle wedge, creating magma.
This magma tends to be very viscous due to its high silica content, so
often does not reach the surface and cools at depth. When it does reach Mount Rinjani eruption in 1994, in Lombok,
the surface, a volcano is formed. Typical examples for this kind of Indonesia

volcano are Mount Etna and the volcanoes in the Pacific Ring of Fire.

"Hotspots"
"Hotspots" is the name given to volcanic provinces postulated to be
formed by mantle plumes. These are postulated to comprise columns of
hot material that rise from the core-mantle boundary. They are
suggested to be hot, causing large-volume melting, and to be fixed in
space. Because the tectonic plates move across them, each volcano
becomes dormant after a while and a new volcano is then formed as the
plate shifts over the postulated plume. The Hawaiian Islands have been Lava enters the Pacific at the Big Island of
suggested to have been formed in such a manner, as well as the Snake Hawaii

River Plain, with the Yellowstone Caldera being the part of the North
American plate currently above the hot spot. This theory is currently under criticism, however.[1]

Volcanic features
The most common perception of a volcano is of a conical mountain,
spewing lava and poisonous gases from a crater at its summit. This
describes just one of many types of volcano, and the features of
volcanoes are much more complicated. The structure and behavior of
volcanoes depends on a number of factors. Some volcanoes have
rugged peaks formed by lava domes rather than a summit crater,
whereas others present landscape features such as massive plateaus.
Vents that issue volcanic material (lava, which is what magma is called
once it has escaped to the surface, and ash) and gases (mainly steam
Conical Mount Fuji in Japan, at sunrise from
and magmatic gases) can be located anywhere on the landform. Many
Lake Kawaguchi (2005)
of these vents give rise to smaller cones such as Puʻu ʻŌʻō on a flank of
Hawaii's Kīlauea.
Volcano 185

Other types of volcano include cryovolcanoes (or ice volcanoes),


particularly on some moons of Jupiter, Saturn and Neptune; and mud
volcanoes, which are formations often not associated with known
magmatic activity. Active mud volcanoes tend to involve temperatures
much lower than those of igneous volcanoes, except when a mud
volcano is actually a vent of an igneous volcano.

Fissure vents
Volcanic fissure vents are flat, linear cracks through which lava Lakagigar fissure vent in Iceland, source of the
emerges. major world climate alteration of 1783–84.
Volcanic eruptions are experienced somewhere in
[3]
Iceland on an average of once every five years.
Shield volcanoes
Shield volcanoes, so named for their broad, shield-like profiles, are
formed by the eruption of low-viscosity lava that can flow a great
distance from a vent, but not generally explode catastrophically. Since
low-viscosity magma is typically low in silica, shield volcanoes are
more common in oceanic than continental settings. The Hawaiian
volcanic chain is a series of shield cones, and they are common in
Iceland, as well.

Skjaldbreiður, a shield volcano whose name


Lava domes means "broad shield"

Lava domes are built by slow eruptions of highly viscous lavas. They
are sometimes formed within the crater of a previous volcanic eruption
(as in Mount Saint Helens), but can also form independently, as in the
case of Lassen Peak. Like stratovolcanoes, they can produce violent,
explosive eruptions, but their lavas generally do not flow far from the
originating vent.

Cryptodomes
Cryptodomes are formed when viscous lava forces its way up and January 2009 image of the rhyolitic lava dome of
Chaitén Volcano, southern Chile during its
causes a bulge. The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens was an
2008–2009 eruption
example. Lava was under great pressure and forced a bulge in the
mountain, which was unstable and slid down the north side.

Volcanic cones (cinder cones)


Volcanic cones or cinder cones are the result from eruptions that erupt
mostly small pieces of scoria and pyroclastics (both resemble cinders,
hence the name of this volcano type) that build up around the vent.
These can be relatively short-lived eruptions that produce a
cone-shaped hill perhaps 30 to 400 meters high. Most cinder cones
erupt only once. Cinder cones may form as flank vents on larger
volcanoes, or occur on their own. Parícutin in Mexico and Sunset Holocene cinder cone volcano on State Highway
Crater in Arizona are examples of cinder cones. In New Mexico, Caja 18 near Veyo, Utah

del Rio is a volcanic field of over 60 cinder cones.


Volcano 186

Stratovolcanoes (composite volcanoes)


Stratovolcanoes or composite volcanoes are tall conical mountains
composed of lava flows and other ejecta in alternate layers, the strata
that give rise to the name. Stratovolcanoes are also known as
composite volcanoes, created from several structures during different
kinds of eruptions. Strato/composite volcanoes are made of cinders,
ash and lava. Cinders and ash pile on top of each other, lava flows on
top of the ash, where it cools and hardens, and then the process begins Mayon, near-perfect stratovolcano in the
Philippines
again. Classic examples include Mt. Fuji in Japan, Mayon Volcano in
the Philippines, and Mount Vesuvius and Stromboli in Italy.

In recorded history, explosive eruptions by stratovolcanoes have posed the greatest hazard to civilizations, as ash is
produced by an explosive eruption. No supervolcano erupted in recorded history. Shield volcanoes have not an
enormous pressure build up from the lava flow. Fissure vents and monogenetic volcanic fields (volcanic cones) have
not powerful explosive eruptions, as they are many times under extension. Stratovolcanoes (30–35°) are steeper than
shield volcanoes (generally 5–10°), their loose tephra are material for dangerous lahars.[4]

Supervolcanoes
A supervolcano is a large volcano that usually has a large caldera and
can potentially produce devastation on an enormous, sometimes
continental, scale. Such eruptions would be able to cause severe
cooling of global temperatures for many years afterwards because of
the huge volumes of sulfur and ash erupted. They are the most
dangerous type of volcano. Examples include Yellowstone Caldera in
Yellowstone National Park and Valles Caldera in New Mexico (both
western United States), Lake Taupo in New Zealand, Lake Toba in
Sumatra, Indonesia and Ngorogoro Crater in Tanzania, Krakatoa near
The Lake Toba volcano created a caldera 100 km
Java and Sumatra, Indonesia. Supervolcanoes are hard to identify
long
centuries later, given the enormous areas they cover. Large igneous
provinces are also considered supervolcanoes because of the vast
amount of basalt lava erupted, but are non-explosive.

Submarine volcanoes
Submarine volcanoes are common features on the ocean floor. Some are active and, in shallow water, disclose their
presence by blasting steam and rocky debris high above the surface of the sea. Many others lie at such great depths
that the tremendous weight of the water above them prevents the explosive release of steam and gases, although they
can be detected by hydrophones and discoloration of water because of volcanic gases. Pumice rafts may also appear.
Even large submarine eruptions may not disturb the ocean surface. Because of the rapid cooling effect of water as
compared to air, and increased buoyancy, submarine volcanoes often form rather steep pillars over their volcanic
vents as compared to above-surface volcanoes. They may become so large that they break the ocean surface as new
islands. Pillow lava is a common eruptive product of submarine volcanoes. Hydrothermal vents are common near
these volcanoes, and some support peculiar ecosystems based on dissolved minerals.
Volcano 187

Subglacial volcanoes
Subglacial volcanoes develop underneath icecaps. They are made up
of flat lava which flows at the top of extensive pillow lavas and
palagonite. When the icecap melts, the lavas on the top collapse,
leaving a flat-topped mountain. These volcanoes are also called table
mountains, tuyas or (uncommonly) mobergs. Very good examples of
this type of volcano can be seen in Iceland, however, there are also
tuyas in British Columbia. The origin of the term comes from Tuya
Butte, which is one of the several tuyas in the area of the Tuya River
and Tuya Range in northern British Columbia. Tuya Butte was the first Herðubreið, one of the tuyas in Iceland

such landform analyzed and so its name has entered the geological
literature for this kind of volcanic formation. The Tuya Mountains
Provincial Park was recently established to protect this unusual
landscape, which lies north of Tuya Lake and south of the Jennings
River near the boundary with the Yukon Territory.

Mud volcanoes
Mud volcanoes or mud domes are formations created by geo-excreted
liquids and gases, although there are several processes which may
cause such activity. The largest structures are 10 kilometers in diameter Mud volcano on Taman Peninsula, Russia
and reach 700 meters high.

Erupted material

Lava composition
Another way of classifying volcanoes is by the composition of material
erupted (lava), since this affects the shape of the volcano. Lava can be
broadly classified into 4 different compositions (Cas & Wright, 1987):
• If the erupted magma contains a high percentage (>63%) of silica,
the lava is called felsic.
• Felsic lavas (dacites or rhyolites) tend to be highly viscous (not
Pāhoehoe Lava flow on Hawaii. The picture
very fluid) and are erupted as domes or short, stubby flows.
shows overflows of a main lava channel.
Viscous lavas tend to form stratovolcanoes or lava domes.
Lassen Peak in California is an example of a volcano formed
from felsic lava and is actually a large lava dome.
• Because siliceous magmas are so viscous, they tend to trap volatiles (gases) that are present, which cause the
magma to erupt catastrophically, eventually forming stratovolcanoes. Pyroclastic flows (ignimbrites) are
highly hazardous products of such volcanoes, since they are composed of molten volcanic ash too heavy to go
up into the atmosphere, so they hug the volcano's slopes and travel far from their vents during large eruptions.
Volcano 188

Temperatures as high as 1,200 °C are known to occur in


pyroclastic flows, which will incinerate everything flammable in
their path and thick layers of hot pyroclastic flow deposits can be
laid down, often up to many meters thick. Alaska's Valley of Ten
Thousand Smokes, formed by the eruption of Novarupta near
Katmai in 1912, is an example of a thick pyroclastic flow or
ignimbrite deposit. Volcanic ash that is light enough to be
erupted high into the Earth's atmosphere may travel many
The Stromboli volcano off the coast of Sicily has
kilometres before it falls back to ground as a tuff.
erupted continuously for thousands of years,
• If the erupted magma contains 52–63% silica, the lava is of giving rise to the term strombolian eruption.
intermediate composition.
• These "andesitic" volcanoes generally only occur above
subduction zones (e.g. Mount Merapi in Indonesia).
• Andesitic lava is typically formed at convergent boundary
margins of tectonic plates, by several processes:
• Hydration melting of peridotite and fractional crystallization
• Melting of subducted slab containing sediments
• Magma mixing between felsic rhyolitic and mafic basaltic
magmas in an intermediate reservoir prior to emplacement or
lava flow.
Mafic basalt lava flows created the Deccan Traps
• If the erupted magma contains <52% and >45% silica, the lava is near Matheran, east of Mumbai, one of the largest
called mafic (because it contains higher percentages of magnesium volcanic features on Earth.
(Mg) and iron (Fe)) or basaltic. These lavas are usually much less
viscous than rhyolitic lavas, depending on their eruption
temperature; they also tend to be hotter than felsic lavas. Mafic
lavas occur in a wide range of settings:

• At mid-ocean ridges, where two oceanic plates are pulling apart,


basaltic lava erupts as pillows to fill the gap;
• Shield volcanoes (e.g. the Hawaiian Islands, including Mauna
Loa and Kilauea), on both oceanic and continental crust;
• As continental flood basalts.
• Some erupted magmas contain <=45% silica and produce ultramafic
lava. Ultramafic flows, also known as komatiites, are very rare;
indeed, very few have been erupted at the Earth's surface since the
Proterozoic, when the planet's heat flow was higher. They are (or
were) the hottest lavas, and probably more fluid than common mafic
lavas.
Pāhoehoe lava from Kīlauea, Hawaii

Lava texture
Two types of lava are named according to the surface texture: ʻAʻa (pronounced Hawaiian pronunciation: [ˈʔaʔa]) and
pāhoehoe (Hawaiian pronunciation: [paːˈho.eˈho.e]), both Hawaiian words. ʻAʻa is characterized by a rough, clinkery
surface and is the typical texture of viscous lava flows. However, even basaltic or mafic flows can be erupted as ʻaʻa
flows, particularly if the eruption rate is high and the slope is steep.
Pāhoehoe is characterized by its smooth and often ropey or wrinkly surface and is generally formed from more fluid
lava flows. Usually, only mafic flows will erupt as pāhoehoe, since they often erupt at higher temperatures or have
Volcano 189

the proper chemical make-up to allow them to flow with greater fluidity.

Volcanic activity

Popular classification of volcanoes

Active

A popular way of classifying magmatic volcanoes is by their frequency


of eruption, with those that erupt regularly called active, those that
have erupted in historical times but are now quiet called dormant, and
those that have not erupted in historical times called extinct. However,
these popular classifications—extinct in particular—are practically Active volcano Mount St. Helens shortly after the
eruption of 18 May 1980
meaningless to scientists. They use classifications which refer to a
particular volcano's formative and eruptive processes and resulting
shapes, which was explained above.

There is no real consensus among volcanologists on how to define an


"active" volcano. The lifespan of a volcano can vary from months to
several million years, making such a distinction sometimes
meaningless when compared to the lifespans of humans or even
civilizations. For example, many of Earth's volcanoes have erupted
dozens of times in the past few thousand years but are not currently
showing signs of eruption. Given the long lifespan of such volcanoes,
they are very active. By human lifespans, however, they are not.
Damavand, the highest volcano in Asia, is a
Scientists usually consider a volcano to be erupting or likely to erupt potentially active volcano with fumaroles and
if it is currently erupting, or showing signs of unrest such as unusual solfatara near its summit.

earthquake activity or significant new gas emissions. Most scientists


consider a volcano active if it has erupted in holocene times. Historic
times is another timeframe for active.[5] But it is important to note that
the span of recorded history differs from region to region. In China and
the Mediterranean, recorded history reaches back more than 3,000
years but in the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada, it
reaches back less than 300 years, and in Hawaii and New Zealand,
only around 200 years.[6] The Smithsonian Global Volcanism
Program's definition of active is having erupted within the last 10,000
years (the 'holocene' period).

Presently there are about 500 active volcanoes in the world – the
majority following along the Pacific 'Ring of Fire' – and around 50 of
these erupt each year.[7] The United States is home to 50 active
volcanoes.[8] There are more than 1,500 potentially active volcanoes.[9]
An estimated 500 million people live near active volcanoes.[10]

Fresco of Bacchus and Agathodaemon with


Mount Vesuvius, as seen in Pompeii's House of
the Centenary.
Volcano 190

Extinct

Extinct volcanoes are those that scientists consider unlikely to erupt


again, because the volcano no longer has a lava supply. Examples of
extinct volcanoes are many volcanoes on the Hawaiian – Emperor
seamount chain in the Pacific Ocean, Hohentwiel, Shiprock and the
Zuidwal volcano in the Netherlands. Edinburgh Castle in Scotland is
famously located atop an extinct volcano. Otherwise, whether a
volcano is truly extinct is often difficult to determine. Since Fourpeaked volcano, Alaska, in September 2007,
"supervolcano" calderas can have eruptive lifespans sometimes after being thought extinct for over 10,000 years.
measured in millions of years, a caldera that has not produced an
eruption in tens of thousands of years is likely to be considered dormant instead of extinct.

Dormant

It is difficult to distinguish an extinct volcano from a dormant one. Volcanoes are often considered to be extinct if
there are no written records of its activity. Nevertheless, volcanoes may remain dormant for a long period of time.
For example, Yellowstone has a repose/recharge period of around 700 ka, and Toba of around 380 ka.[11] Vesuvius
was described by Roman writers as having been covered with gardens and vineyards before its famous eruption of
AD 79, which destroyed the towns of Herculaneum and Pompeii. Before its catastrophic eruption of 1991, Pinatubo
was an inconspicuous volcano, unknown to most people in the surrounding areas. Two other examples are the
long-dormant Soufrière Hills volcano on the island of Montserrat, thought to be extinct before activity resumed in
1995 and Fourpeaked Mountain in Alaska, which, before its September 2006 eruption, had not erupted since before
8000 BC and had long been thought to be extinct.

Notable volcanoes
The 16 current Decade Volcanoes are:

Koryaksky volcano towering over


Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky on Kamchatka
Peninsula, Far Eastern Russia.
Volcano 191

Mount Teide on the island of Tenerife (Spain).

• Avachinsky-Koryaksky, Kamchatka, Russia • Sakurajima, Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan


• Nevado de Colima, Jalisco and Colima, Mexico • Santa Maria/Santiaguito, Guatemala
• Mount Etna, Sicily, Italy • Santorini, Cyclades, Greece
• Galeras, Nariño, Colombia • Taal Volcano, Luzon, Philippines
• Mauna Loa, Hawaii, USA • Teide, Canary Islands, Spain
• Mount Merapi, Central Java, Indonesia • Ulawun, New Britain, Papua New Guinea
• Mount Nyiragongo, Democratic Republic of the Congo • Mount Unzen, Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan
• Mount Rainier, Washington, USA • Vesuvius, Naples, Italy

Effects of volcanoes
There are many different types of volcanic eruptions and associated
activity: phreatic eruptions (steam-generated eruptions), explosive
eruption of high-silica lava (e.g., rhyolite), effusive eruption of
low-silica lava (e.g., basalt), pyroclastic flows, lahars (debris flow) and
carbon dioxide emission. All of these activities can pose a hazard to
humans. Earthquakes, hot springs, fumaroles, mud pots and geysers
often accompany volcanic activity.

The concentrations of different volcanic gases can vary considerably


from one volcano to the next. Water vapor is typically the most
Volcanic "injection"
abundant volcanic gas, followed by carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide.
Other principal volcanic gases include hydrogen sulfide, hydrogen
chloride, and hydrogen fluoride. A large number of minor and trace
gases are also found in volcanic emissions, for example hydrogen,
carbon monoxide, halocarbons, organic compounds, and volatile metal
chlorides.

Large, explosive volcanic eruptions inject water vapor (H2O), carbon


dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), hydrogen chloride (HCl),
hydrogen fluoride (HF) and ash (pulverized rock and pumice) into the
stratosphere to heights of 16–32 kilometres (10–20 mi) above the
Solar radiation reduction from volcanic eruptions Earth's surface. The most significant impacts from these injections
come from the conversion of sulfur dioxide to sulfuric acid (H2SO4),
which condenses rapidly in the stratosphere to form fine sulfate aerosols. The aerosols increase the Earth's
albedo—its reflection of
Volcano 192

radiation from the Sun back into space – and thus cool the Earth's
lower atmosphere or troposphere; however, they also absorb heat
radiated up from the Earth, thereby warming the stratosphere. Several
eruptions during the past century have caused a decline in the average
temperature at the Earth's surface of up to half a degree (Fahrenheit
scale) for periods of one to three years — sulfur dioxide from the
eruption of Huaynaputina probably caused the Russian famine of 1601
- 1603.[12] Sulfur dioxide emissions by volcanoes.

One proposed volcanic winter happened c. 70,000 years ago following


the supereruption of Lake Toba on Sumatra island in Indonesia.[13]
According to the Toba catastrophe theory to which some
anthropologists and archeologists subscribe, it had global
consequences,[14] killing most humans then alive and creating a
population bottleneck that affected the genetic inheritance of all
humans today.[15] The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora created global
climate anomalies that became known as the "Year Without a
Summer" because of the effect on North American and European
weather.[16] Agricultural crops failed and livestock died in much of the
Northern Hemisphere, resulting in one of the worst famines of the 19th
century.[17] The freezing winter of 1740–41, which led to widespread
famine in northern Europe, may also owe its origins to a volcanic Average concentration of sulfur dioxide over the
eruption.[18] Sierra Negra Volcano (Galapagos Islands) from
October 23 – November 1, 2005
It has been suggested that volcanic activity caused or contributed to the
End-Ordovician, Permian-Triassic, Late Devonian mass extinctions, and possibly others. The massive eruptive event
which formed the Siberian Traps, one of the largest known volcanic events of the last 500 million years of Earth's
geological history, continued for a million years and is considered to be the likely cause of the "Great Dying" about
250 million years ago,[19] which is estimated to have killed 90% of species existing at the time.[20]
The sulfate aerosols also promote complex chemical reactions on their surfaces that alter chlorine and nitrogen
chemical species in the stratosphere. This effect, together with increased stratospheric chlorine levels from
chlorofluorocarbon pollution, generates chlorine monoxide (ClO), which destroys ozone (O3). As the aerosols grow
and coagulate, they settle down into the upper troposphere where they serve as nuclei for cirrus clouds and further
modify the Earth's radiation balance. Most of the hydrogen chloride (HCl) and hydrogen fluoride (HF) are dissolved
in water droplets in the eruption cloud and quickly fall to the ground as acid rain. The injected ash also falls rapidly
from the stratosphere; most of it is removed within several days to a few weeks. Finally, explosive volcanic
eruptions release the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and thus provide a deep source of carbon for biogeochemical
cycles.
Volcano 193

Gas emissions from volcanoes are a natural contributor to acid rain.


Volcanic activity releases about 130 to 230 teragrams (145 million to
255 million short tons) of carbon dioxide each year.[21] Volcanic
eruptions may inject aerosols into the Earth's atmosphere. Large
injections may cause visual effects such as unusually colorful sunsets
and affect global climate mainly by cooling it. Volcanic eruptions also
provide the benefit of adding nutrients to soil through the weathering
process of volcanic rocks. These fertile soils assist the growth of plants
Rainbow and volcanic ash with sulfur dioxide and various crops. Volcanic eruptions can also create new islands, as
emissions from Halema`uma`u vent.
the magma cools and solidifies upon contact with the water.

Ash thrown into the air by eruptions can present a hazard to aircraft, especially jet aircraft where the particles can be
melted by the high operating temperature. Dangerous encounters in 1982 after the eruption of Galunggung in
Indonesia, and 1989 after the eruption of Mount Redoubt in Alaska raised awareness of this phenomenon. Nine
Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers were established by the International Civil Aviation Organization to monitor ash
clouds and advise pilots accordingly. The 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull caused major disruptions to air travel in
Europe.

Volcanoes on other planetary bodies


The Earth's Moon has no large volcanoes and no current volcanic activity,
although recent evidence suggests it may still possess a partially molten core.[22]
However, the Moon does have many volcanic features such as maria (the darker
patches seen on the moon), rilles and domes.
The planet Venus has a surface that is 90% basalt, indicating that volcanism
played a major role in shaping its surface. The planet may have had a major
global resurfacing event about 500 million years ago,[23] from what scientists can
tell from the density of impact craters on the surface. Lava flows are widespread
and forms of volcanism not present on Earth occur as well. Changes in the
planet's atmosphere and observations of lightning have been attributed to
ongoing volcanic eruptions, although there is no confirmation of whether or not
Venus is still volcanically active. However, radar sounding by the Magellan
probe revealed evidence for comparatively recent volcanic activity at Venus's
highest volcano Maat Mons, in the form of ash flows near the summit and on the
northern flank.

There are several extinct volcanoes on Mars, four of which are vast shield
volcanoes far bigger than any on Earth. They include Arsia Mons, Ascraeus
Olympus Mons (Latin, "Mount
Mons, Hecates Tholus, Olympus Mons, and Pavonis Mons. These volcanoes
Olympus") is the tallest known
have been extinct for many millions of years,[24] but the European Mars Express mountain in our solar system, located
spacecraft has found evidence that volcanic activity may have occurred on Mars on the planet Mars.
in the recent past as well.[24]
Volcano 194

Jupiter's moon Io is the most volcanically active object in the solar


system because of tidal interaction with Jupiter. It is covered with
volcanoes that erupt sulfur, sulfur dioxide and silicate rock, and as a
result, Io is constantly being resurfaced. Its lavas are the hottest known
anywhere in the solar system, with temperatures exceeding 1,800 K
(1,500 °C). In February 2001, the largest recorded volcanic eruptions
in the solar system occurred on Io.[25] Europa, the smallest of Jupiter's
Galilean moons, also appears to have an active volcanic system, except
that its volcanic activity is entirely in the form of water, which freezes
into ice on the frigid surface. This process is known as cryovolcanism,
and is apparently most common on the moons of the outer planets of
The Tvashtar volcano erupts a plume 330 km
the solar system.
(205 mi) above the surface of Jupiter's moon Io.
In 1989 the Voyager 2 spacecraft observed cryovolcanoes (ice
volcanoes) on Triton, a moon of Neptune, and in 2005 the
Cassini-Huygens probe photographed fountains of frozen particles erupting from Enceladus, a moon of Saturn.[26]
The ejecta may be composed of water, liquid nitrogen, dust, or methane compounds. Cassini-Huygens also found
evidence of a methane-spewing cryovolcano on the Saturnian moon Titan, which is believed to be a significant
source of the methane found in its atmosphere.[27] It is theorized that cryovolcanism may also be present on the
Kuiper Belt Object Quaoar.

A 2010 study of the exoplanet COROT-7b, which was detected by transit in 2009, studied that tidal heating from the
host star very close to the planet and neighboring planets could generate intense volcanic activity similar to Io.[28]

Traditional beliefs about volcanoes


Many ancient accounts ascribe volcanic eruptions to supernatural causes, such as the actions of gods or demigods.
To the ancient Greeks, volcanoes' capricious power could only be explained as acts of the gods, while
16th/17th-century German astronomer Johannes Kepler believed they were ducts for the Earth's tears.[29] One early
idea counter to this was proposed by Jesuit Athanasius Kircher (1602–1680), who witnessed eruptions of Mount
Etna and Stromboli, then visited the crater of Vesuvius and published his view of an Earth with a central fire
connected to numerous others caused by the burning of sulfur, bitumen and coal.
Various explanations were proposed for volcano behavior before the modern understanding of the Earth's mantle
structure as a semisolid material was developed. For decades after awareness that compression and radioactive
materials may be heat sources, their contributions were specifically discounted. Volcanic action was often attributed
to chemical reactions and a thin layer of molten rock near the surface.

Panoramas

Mount Bromo, East Java, Indonesia.


Volcano 195

Crater of Mount Tangkuban Perahu, West Java, Indonesia.

Irazú Volcano, Costa Rica.

Black Rock Volcano an extinct cinder cone near Fillmore, Utah.

Taal Volcano, Philippines.


Volcano 196

Crater of Sierra Negra volcano, Isabela island, Galapagos, Ecuador.

Vulcano island with the north coast of Sicily in the background.

Remote Binubulauan in Kalinga province, central northern Luzon, Philippines, April 2009
Volcano 197

References
[1] Foulger, G.R. (2010). Plates vs. Plumes: A Geological Controversy (http:/ / www. wiley. com/ WileyCDA/ WileyTitle/
productCd-1405161485. html). Wiley-Blackwell. ISBN 978-1-4051-6148-0. .
[2] Douglas Harper (November 2001). "Volcano" (http:/ / www. etymonline. com/ index. php?term=volcano). Online Etymology Dictionary. .
Retrieved 2009-06-11.
[3] " Iceland (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=4-puvJH_lykC& pg=PA100& dq& hl=en#v=onepage& q=& f=false)". Jane Simmonds
(1999). Langenscheidt. p.100. ISBN 0887291767
[4] Lockwood, John P.; Hazlett, Richard W. (2010). Volcanoes: Global Perspectives (http:/ / books. google. com/ ?id=eJopFDVRgYMC&
pg=PA115& dq). p. 552. ISBN 978-1-4051-6250-0. .
[5] " Volcanoes (http:/ / pubs. usgs. gov/ gip/ volc/ text. html)". U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey.
[6] " Mountains of fire: the nature of volcanoes (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=-P83AAAAIAAJ& pg=PA7& dq& hl=en#v=onepage&
q=& f=false)". Robert Wayne Decker, Barbara Decker (1991). p.7. ISBN 0521312906
[7] " Volcanoes (http:/ / www. esa. int/ SPECIALS/ Space_for_our_climate/ SEM3XU2VQUD_0. html)". European Space Agency.
[8] " Volcano Environments (http:/ / pubs. usgs. gov/ gip/ volc/ environments. html)". U.S. Geological Survey.
[9] " Sensing Remote Volcanoes (http:/ / earthobservatory. nasa. gov/ Features/ monvoc/ )". NASA Earth Observatory.
[10] " Volcanoes (http:/ / www. alertnet. org/ db/ crisisprofiles/ VOLCANO. htm)". Reuters. December 12, 2009.
[11] Chesner, C.A.; Westgate, J.A.; Rose, W.I.; Drake, R.; Deino, A. (March 1991). "Eruptive History of Earth's Largest Quaternary caldera
(Toba, Indonesia) Clarified" (http:/ / www. geo. mtu. edu/ ~raman/ papers/ ChesnerGeology. pdf). Geology 19: 200–203.
doi:10.1130/0091-7613(1991)019<0200:EHOESL>2.3.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-01-20.
[12] University of California – Davis (2008, April 25). "Volcanic Eruption Of 1600 Caused Global Disruption" (http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com/
releases/ 2008/ 04/ 080423135236. htm). ScienceDaily. .
[13] " Supervolcano Eruption – In Sumatra – Deforested India 73,000 Years Ago (http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com/ releases/ 2009/ 11/
091123142739. htm)". ScienceDaily. November 24, 2009.
[14] " The new batch – 150,000 years ago (http:/ / www. bbc. co. uk/ sn/ prehistoric_life/ human/ human_evolution/ new_batch1. shtml)". BBC –
Science & Nature – The evolution of man.
[15] "When humans faced extinction" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 2975862. stm). BBC. 2003-06-09. . Retrieved
2007-01-05.
[16] " Volcanoes in human history: the far-reaching effects of major eruptions (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=ipNcKc0Mv5IC&
pg=PA155& dq& hl=en#v=onepage& q=& f=false)". Jelle Zeilinga de Boer, Donald Theodore Sanders (2002). Princeton University Press.
p.155. ISBN 0691050813
[17] Oppenheimer, Clive (2003). "Climatic, environmental and human consequences of the largest known historic eruption: Tambora volcano
(Indonesia) 1815". Progress in Physical Geography 27 (2): 230–259. doi:10.1191/0309133303pp379ra.
[18] " Ó Gráda, C.: Famine: A Short History (http:/ / press. princeton. edu/ chapters/ s8857. html)". Princeton University Press.
[19] " Yellowstone's Super Sister (http:/ / dsc. discovery. com/ convergence/ supervolcano/ others/ others_07. html)". Discovery Channel.
[20] Benton M J (2005). When Life Nearly Died: The Greatest Mass Extinction of All Time. Thames & Hudson. ISBN 978-0500285732.
[21] "Volcanic Gases and Their Effects" (http:/ / volcanoes. usgs. gov/ Hazards/ What/ VolGas/ volgas. html). U.S. Geological Survey. .
Retrieved 2007-06-16.
[22] M. A. Wieczorek, B. L. Jolliff, A. Khan, M. E. Pritchard, B. P. Weiss, J. G. Williams, L. L. Hood, K. Righter, C. R. Neal, C. K. Shearer, I.
S. McCallum, S. Tompkins, B. R. Hawke, C. Peterson, J, J. Gillis, B. Bussey (2006). "The Constitution and Structure of the Lunar Interior".
Reviews in Mineralogy and Geochemistry 60 (1): 221–364. doi:10.2138/rmg.2006.60.3.
[23] D.L. Bindschadler (1995). "Magellan: A new view of Venus' geology and geophysics" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ rg/ rg9504S/
95RG00281/ index. html). American Geophysical Union. . Retrieved 2006-09-04.
[24] "Glacial, volcanic and fluvial activity on Mars: latest images" (http:/ / www. esa. int/ esaMI/ Mars_Express/ SEMLF6D3M5E_0. html).
European Space Agency. 2005-02-25. . Retrieved 2006-08-17.
[25] Exceptionally Bright Eruption on lo Rivals Largest in Solar System, Nov. 13, 2002 (http:/ / www2. keck. hawaii. edu/ news/ archive/
eruption/ )
[26] "Cassini Finds an Atmosphere on Saturn's Moon Enceladus'" (http:/ / www. pparc. ac. uk/ Nw/ enceladus. asp). Pparc.ac.uk. . Retrieved
2010-10-24.
[27] "Hydrocarbon volcano discovered on Titan" (http:/ / www. newscientist. com/ article. ns?id=dn7489). Newscientist.com. June 8, 2005. .
Retrieved 2010-10-24.
[28] Jaggard, Victoria (2010-02-05). ""Super Earth" May Really Be New Planet Type: Super-Io" (http:/ / news. nationalgeographic. com/ news/
2010/ 02/ 100205-new-type-planet-corot-7b-io/ ). National Geographic web site daily news (http:/ / news. nationalgeographic. com/ news/ ).
National Geographic Society. . Retrieved 2010-03-11.
[29] Micheal Williams (11-2007). "Hearts of fire". Morning Calm (Korean Air Lines Co., Ltd.) (11-2007): 6.
Volcano 198

Further reading
• Cas, R.A.F. and J.V. Wright, 1987. Volcanic Successions. Unwin Hyman Inc. 528p. ISBN 0-04-552022-4
• Macdonald, Gordon and Agatin T. Abbott. (1970). Volcanoes in the Sea. University of Hawaii Press, Honolulu.
441 p.
• Marti, Joan and Ernst, Gerald. (2005). Volcanoes and the Environment. Cambridge University Press.
ISBN 0-521-59254-2.
• Ollier, Cliff. (1988). Volcanoes. Basil Blackwell, Oxford, UK, ISBN 0-631-15664-X (hardback), ISBN
0-631-15977-0 (paperback).
• Sigurðsson, Haraldur, ed. (1999) Encyclopedia of Volcanoes. Academic Press. ISBN 0-12-643140-X. This is a
reference aimed at geologists, but many articles are accessible to non-professionals.

External links
• Volcanoes (http://www.dmoz.org/Science/Earth_Sciences/Geology/Volcanoes/) at the Open Directory
Project
• Volcano Eruptions, Ancient & Modern (http://www.life.com/image/first/in-gallery/22994/
volcano-eruptions-ancient--modern) slideshow by Life magazine
• Volcano (http://www.fema.gov/hazard/volcano/index.shtm), U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency
FEMA
• Volcano World (http://volcano.oregonstate.edu/)

Global climate model


A General Circulation Model (GCM)
is a mathematical model of the general
circulation of a planetary atmosphere
or ocean and based on the
Navier–Stokes equations on a rotating
sphere with thermodynamic terms for
various energy sources (radiation,
latent heat). These equations are the
basis for complex computer programs
commonly used for simulating the
atmosphere or ocean of the Earth.
Atmospheric and Oceanic GCMs
(AGCM and OGCM) are key
components of Global Climate
Climate models are systems of differential equations based on the basic laws of physics,
Models along with sea ice and
fluid motion, and chemistry. To “run” a model, scientists divide the planet into a
land-surface components. GCMs and 3-dimensional grid, apply the basic equations, and evaluate the results. Atmospheric
global climate models are widely models calculate winds, heat transfer, radiation, relative humidity, and surface hydrology
applied for weather forecasting, within each grid and evaluate interactions with neighboring points. The winds, heat
transfer and other quantities are only used to compute a final result so they do not need to
understanding the climate, and
correspond to real world conditions, and in some numerical schemes fictitious quantities
projecting climate change. Versions are introduced.
designed for decade to century time
Global climate model 199

scale climate applications were originally created by Syukuro Manabe and Kirk Bryan at the Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey.[1] These computationally intensive numerical models are based on
the integration of a variety of fluid dynamical, chemical, and sometimes biological equations.

History
In 1956, Norman Phillips developed a mathematical model which could realistically depict monthly and seasonal
patterns in the troposphere, which became the first successful climate model.[2] [3] Following Phillips's work, several
groups began working to create general circulation models.[4] The first general circulation climate model that
combined both oceanic and atmospheric processes was developed in the late 1960s at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory.[5] By the early 1980s, the United States' National Center for Atmospheric Research had
developed the Community Atmosphere Model; this model has been continuously refined into the 2000s.[6] In 1986,
efforts began to initialize and model soil and vegetation types, which led to more realistic forecasts.[7] Coupled
ocean-atmosphere climate models such as the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research's HadCM3 model
are currently being used as inputs for climate change studies.[4] The importance of gravity waves was neglected
within these models until the mid 1980s. Now, gravity waves are required within global climate models in order to
properly simulate regional and global scale circulations, though their broad spectrum makes their incorporation
complicated.[8]

Atmospheric vs Ocean models


There are both atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) and oceanic GCMs (OGCMs). An AGCM and an OGCM can be
coupled together to form an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (CGCM or AOGCM). With the
addition of other components (such as a sea ice model or a model for evapotranspiration over land), the AOGCM
becomes the basis for a full climate model. Within this structure, different variations can exist, and their varying
response to climate change may be studied (e.g., Sun and Hansen, 2003).

Modeling trends
A recent trend in GCMs is to apply them as components of Earth System Models, e.g. by coupling to ice sheet
models for the dynamics of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and one or more chemical transport models
(CTMs) for species important to climate. Thus a carbon CTM may allow a GCM to better predict changes in carbon
dioxide concentrations resulting from changes in anthropogenic emissions. In addition, this approach allows
accounting for inter-system feedback: e.g. chemistry-climate models allow the possible effects of climate change on
the recovery of the ozone hole to be studied.[9]
Climate prediction uncertainties depend on uncertainties in chemical, physical, and social models (see IPCC
scenarios below).[10] Progress has been made in incorporating more realistic chemistry and physics in the models,
but significant uncertainties and unknowns remain, especially regarding the future course of human population,
industry, and technology.
Note that many simpler levels of climate model exist; some are of only heuristic interest, while others continue to be
scientifically relevant.
Global climate model 200

Model structure
Three-dimensional (more properly four-dimensional) GCMs discretise the equations for fluid motion and integrate
these forward in time. They also contain parametrisations for processes - such as convection - that occur on scales
too small to be resolved directly. More sophisticated models may include representations of the carbon and other
cycles.
A simple general circulation model (SGCM), a minimal GCM, consists of a dynamical core that relates material
properties such as temperature to dynamical properties such as pressure and velocity. Examples are programs that
solve the primitive equations, given energy input into the model, and energy dissipation in the form of
scale-dependent friction, so that atmospheric waves with the highest wavenumbers are the ones most strongly
attenuated. Such models may be used to study atmospheric processes within a simplified framework but are not
suitable for future climate projections.
Atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) model the atmosphere (and typically contain a land-surface model as well) and
impose sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A large amount of information including model documentation is available
from AMIP.[11] They may include atmospheric chemistry.
• AGCMs consist of a dynamical core which integrates the equations of fluid motion, typically for:
• surface pressure
• horizontal components of velocity in layers
• temperature and water vapor in layers
• There is generally a radiation code, split into solar/short wave and terrestrial/infra-red/long wave
• Parametrizations are used to include the effects of various processes. All modern AGCMs include
parameterizations for:
• convection
• land surface processes, albedo and hydrology
• cloud cover
A GCM contains a number of prognostic equations that are stepped forward in time (typically winds, temperature,
moisture, and surface pressure) together with a number of diagnostic equations that are evaluated from the
simultaneous values of the variables. As an example, pressure at any height can be diagnosed by applying the
hydrostatic equation to the predicted surface pressure and the predicted values of temperature between the surface
and the height of interest. The pressure diagnosed in this way then is used to compute the pressure gradient force in
the time-dependent equation for the winds.
Oceanic GCMs (OGCMs) model the ocean (with fluxes from the atmosphere imposed) and may or may not contain
a sea ice model. For example, the standard resolution of HadOM3 is 1.25 degrees in latitude and longitude, with 20
vertical levels, leading to approximately 1,500,000 variables.
Coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs (AOGCMs) (e.g. HadCM3, GFDL CM2.X) combine the two models. They
thus have the advantage of removing the need to specify fluxes across the interface of the ocean surface. These
models are the basis for sophisticated model predictions of future climate, such as are discussed by the IPCC.
AOGCMs represent the pinnacle of complexity in climate models and internalise as many processes as possible.
They are the only tools that could provide detailed regional predictions of future climate change. However, they are
still under development. The simpler models are generally susceptible to simple analysis and their results are
generally easy to understand. AOGCMs, by contrast, are often nearly as hard to analyse as the real climate system.
Global climate model 201

Model grids
The fluid equations for AGCMs are discretised using either the finite difference method or the spectral method. For
finite differences, a grid is imposed on the atmosphere. The simplest grid uses constant angular grid spacing (i.e., a
latitude / longitude grid), however, more sophisticated non-rectantangular grids (e.g., icohedral) and grids of variable
resolution[12] are more often used.[13] The "LMDz" model can be arranged to give high resolution over any given
section of the planet. HadGEM1 (and other ocean models) use an ocean grid with higher resolution in the tropics to
help resolve processes believed to be important for ENSO. Spectral models generally use a gaussian grid, because of
the mathematics of transformation between spectral and grid-point space. Typical AGCM resolutions are between 1
and 5 degrees in latitude or longitude: the Hadley Centre model HadCM3, for example, uses 3.75 in longitude and
2.5 degrees in latitude, giving a grid of 96 by 73 points (96 x 72 for some variables); and has 19 levels in the vertical.
This results in approximately 500,000 "basic" variables, since each grid point has four variables (u,v, T, Q), though a
full count would give more (clouds; soil levels). HadGEM1 uses a grid of 1.875 degrees in longitude and 1.25 in
latitude in the atmosphere; HiGEM, a high-resolution variant, uses 1.25 x 0.83 degrees respectively.[14] These
resolutions are lower than is typically used for weather forecasting.[15] Ocean resolutions tend to be higher, for
example HadCM3 has 6 ocean grid points per atmospheric grid point in the horizontal.
For a standard finite difference model, uniform gridlines converge towards the poles. This would lead to
computational instabilities (see CFL condition) and so the model variables must be filtered along lines of latitude
close to the poles. Ocean models suffer from this problem too, unless a rotated grid is used in which the North Pole
is shifted onto a nearby landmass. Spectral models do not suffer from this problem. There are experiments using
geodesic grids[16] and icosahedral grids, which (being more uniform) do not have pole-problems. Another approach
to solving the grid spacing problem is to deform a Cartesian cube such that it covers the surface of a sphere.[17]

Flux correction
Early generations of AOGCMs required a somewhat ad hoc process of "flux correction" to achieve a stable climate.
The danger, however, is that a model may need flux corrections because of unrealistically strong feedback processes
that result in a transition to a different climate state. As a result, there has been strong movement away from the use
of flux corrections, and the vast majority of models used in the current round of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change do not use them. The model improvements that now make flux corrections unnecessary are various,
but include improved ocean physics, improved resolution in both atmosphere and ocean, and more physically
consistent coupling between atmosphere and ocean models.

Convection
Moist convection causes the release of latent heat and is important to the Earth's energy budget. Convection occurs
on too small a scale to be resolved by climate models, and hence must be parameterised. This has been done since
the earliest days of climate modelling, in the 1950s. Akio Arakawa did much of the early work and variants of his
scheme are still used [18] although there is a variety of different schemes now in use [19] [20] [21]. The behavior of
clouds is still poorly understood and is parametrized. [22].
Global climate model 202

Output variables
Most models include software to diagnose a wide range of variables for comparison with observations or study of
atmospheric processes. An example is the 1.5 metre temperature, which is the standard height for near-surface
observations of air temperature. This temperature is not directly predicted from the model but is deduced from the
surface and lowest-model-layer temperatures. Other software is used for creating plots and animations.

Projections of future climate change


Coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs use
transient climate simulations to
project/predict future temperature
changes under various scenarios. These
can be idealised scenarios (most
commonly, CO2 increasing at 1%/yr)
or more realistic (usually the "IS92a"
or more recently the SRES scenarios).
Which scenarios should be considered
most realistic is currently uncertain, as
the projections of future CO2 (and
sulphate) emission are themselves
uncertain.

The 2001 IPCC Third Assessment


Report figure 9.3 [23] shows the global Shows the distribution of warming during the late 21st century predicted by the HadCM3
mean response of 19 different coupled climate model (one of those used by the IPCC) if a business-as-usual scenario is assumed
models to an idealised experiment in for economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. The average warming predicted by
this model is 3.0 °C.
which CO2 is increased at 1% per year
[24]. Figure 9.5 [25] shows the response
of a smaller number of models to more realistic forcing. For the 7 climate models shown there, the temperature
change to 2100 varies from 2 to 4.5 °C with a median of about 3 °C.

Future scenarios do not include unknowable events - for example, volcanic eruptions or changes in solar forcing.
These effects are believed to be small in comparison to GHG forcing in the long term, but large volcanic eruptions,
for example, are known to exert a temporary cooling effect.
Human emissions of GHGs are an external input to the models, although it would be possible to couple in an
economic model to provide these as well. Atmospheric GHG levels are usually supplied as an input, though it is
possible to include a carbon cycle model including land vegetation and oceanic processes to calculate GHG levels.

Emissions scenarios
For the six SRES marker scenarios, IPCC (2007:7-8) gave a "best estimate" of global mean temperature increase
(2090-2099 relative to the period 1980-1999) that ranged from 1.8 °C to 4.0 °C. Over the same time period, the
"likely" range (greater than 66% probability, based on expert judgement) for these scenarios was for a global mean
temperature increase of between 1.1 and 6.4 °C.[26]
Pope (2008) described a study where climate change projections were made using several different emission
scenarios.[27] In a scenario where global emissions start to decrease by 2010 and then decline at a sustained rate of
3% per year, the likely global average temperature increase was predicted to be 1.7 °C above pre-industrial levels by
2050, rising to around 2 °C by 2100. In a projection designed to simulate a future where no efforts are made to
reduce global emissions, the likely rise in global average temperature was predicted to be 5.5 °C by 2100. A rise as
Global climate model 203

high as 7 °C was thought possible but less likely.


Sokolov et al. (2009) examined a scenario designed to simulate a future where there is no policy to reduce emissions.
In their integrated model, this scenario resulted in a median warming over land (2090-2099 relative to the period
1980-1999) of 5.1 °C. Under the same emissions scenario but with different modeling of the future climate, the
predicted median warming was 4.1 °C.[28]

Accuracy of models that predict global warming


AOGCMs represent the pinnacle of complexity in climate
models and internalise as many processes as possible.
However, they are still under development and
uncertainties remain. They may be coupled to models of
other processes, such as the carbon cycle, so as to better
model feedback effects. Most recent simulations show
"plausible" agreement with the measured temperature
anomalies over the past 150 years, when forced by
observed changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols, but
better agreement is achieved when natural forcings are
also included.[29] [30] Mean global temperatures from observations and two climate
models.
No model – whether a wind tunnel model for designing
aircraft, or a climate model for projecting global warming
– perfectly reproduces the system being modeled. Such
inherently imperfect models may nevertheless produce
useful results. In this context, GCMs are capable of
reproducing the general features of the observed global
temperature over the past century.[31]

A debate over how to reconcile climate model predictions


that upper air (tropospheric) warming should be greater
than surface warming, with observations some of which
appeared to show otherwise [32] now appears to have been SST errors in HadCM3
resolved in favour of the models, following revisions to
the data: see satellite temperature record.

The effects of clouds are a significant area of uncertainty


in climate models. Clouds have competing effects on the
climate. One of the roles that clouds play in climate is in
cooling the surface by reflecting sunlight back into space;
another is warming by increasing the amount of infrared
radiation emitted from the atmosphere to the surface.[33]
In the 2001 IPCC report on climate change, the possible
changes in cloud cover were highlighted as one of the
dominant uncertainties in predicting future climate
change; see also [34].

Thousands of climate researchers around the world use


climate models to understand the climate system. There North American precipitation from various models.
Global climate model 204

are thousands of papers published about model-based


studies in peer-reviewed journals - and a part of this
research is work improving the models. Improvement has
been difficult but steady (most obviously, state of the art
AOGCMs no longer require flux correction), and
progress has sometimes led to discovering new
uncertainties.
In 2000, a comparison between measurements and dozens
of GCM simulations of ENSO-driven tropical
precipitation, water vapor, temperature, and outgoing
longwave radiation found similarity between
Temperature predictions from some climate models assuming the
measurements and simulation of most factors. However
SRES A2 emissions scenario.
the simulated change in precipitation was about
one-fourth less than what was observed. Errors in
simulated precipitation imply errors in other processes, such as errors in the evaporation rate that provides moisture
to create precipitation. The other possibility is that the satellite-based measurements are in error. Either indicates
progress is required in order to monitor and predict such changes. [35]
[36]
A more complete discussion of climate models is provided by the IPCC TAR chapter 8, Model Evaluation
(2001).
• The model mean exhibits good agreement with observations.
• The individual models often exhibit worse agreement with observations.
• Many of the non-flux adjusted models suffered from unrealistic climate drift up to about 1°C/century in global
mean surface temperature.
• The errors in model-mean surface air temperature rarely exceed 1 °C over the oceans and 5 °C over the
continents; precipitation and sea level pressure errors are relatively greater but the magnitudes and patterns of
these quantities are recognisably similar to observations.
• Surface air temperature is particularly well simulated, with nearly all models closely matching the observed
magnitude of variance and exhibiting a correlation > 0.95 with the observations.
• Simulated variance of sea level pressure and precipitation is within ±25% of observed.
• All models have shortcomings in their simulations of the present day climate of the stratosphere, which might
limit the accuracy of predictions of future climate change.
• There is a tendency for the models to show a global mean cold bias at all levels.
• There is a large scatter in the tropical temperatures.
• The polar night jets in most models are inclined poleward with height, in noticeable contrast to an equatorward
inclination of the observed jet.
• There is a differing degree of separation in the models between the winter sub-tropical jet and the polar night
jet.
• For nearly all models the r.m.s. error in zonal- and annual-mean surface air temperature is small compared with
its natural variability.
• There are problems in simulating natural seasonal variability.( 2000) [37]
• In flux-adjusted models, seasonal variations are simulated to within 2 K of observed values over the oceans.
The corresponding average over non-flux-adjusted models shows errors up to about 6 K in extensive ocean
areas.
• Near-surface land temperature errors are substantial in the average over flux-adjusted models, which
systematically underestimates (by about 5 K) temperature in areas of elevated terrain. The corresponding
average over non-flux-adjusted models forms a similar error pattern (with somewhat increased amplitude)
Global climate model 205

over land.
• In Southern Ocean mid-latitudes, the non-flux-adjusted models overestimate the magnitude of
January-minus-July temperature differences by ~5 K due to an overestimate of summer (January)
near-surface temperature. This error is common to five of the eight non-flux-adjusted models.
• Over Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude land areas, zonal mean differences between July and January
temperatures simulated by the non-flux-adjusted models show a greater spread (positive and negative) about
observed values than results from the flux-adjusted models.
• The ability of coupled GCMs to simulate a reasonable seasonal cycle is a necessary condition for
confidence in their prediction of long-term climatic changes (such as global warming), but it is not a
sufficient condition unless the seasonal cycle and long-term changes involve similar climatic processes.
• Coupled climate models do not simulate with reasonable accuracy clouds and some related hydrological processes
(in particular those involving upper tropospheric humidity). Problems in the simulation of clouds and upper
tropospheric humidity, remain worrisome because the associated processes account for most of the uncertainty in
climate model simulations of anthropogenic change.
The precise magnitude of future changes in climate is still uncertain [38]; for the end of the 21st century (2071 to
2100), for SRES scenario A2, the change of global average SAT change from AOGCMs compared with 1961 to
1990 is +3.0 °C (4.8 °F) and the range is +1.3 to +4.5 °C (+2 to +7.2 °F).
Forecasts of climate change are inevitably uncertain. Even the degree of uncertainty is uncertain, a problem that
stems from the fact that these climate models do not necessarily span the full range of known climate system
behavior. [39]

Relation to weather forecasting


The global climate models used for climate projections are very similar in structure to (and often share computer
code with) numerical models for weather prediction but are nonetheless logically distinct.
Most weather forecasting is done on the basis of interpreting the output of numerical model results. Since forecasts
are short—typically a few days or a week—such models do not usually contain an ocean model but rely on imposed
SSTs. They also require accurate initial conditions to begin the forecast—typically these are taken from the output of
a previous forecast, with observations blended in. Because the results are needed quickly the predictions must be run
in a few hours; but because they only need to cover a week of real time these predictions can be run at higher
resolution than in climate mode. Currently the ECMWF runs at 40 km (25 mi) resolution [40] as opposed to the
100-to-200 km (62-to-120 mi) scale used by typical climate models. Often nested models are run forced by the
global models for boundary conditions, to achieve higher local resolution: for example, the Met Office runs a
mesoscale model with an 11 km (6.8 mi) resolution [41] covering the UK, and various agencies in the U.S. also run
nested models such as the NGM and NAM models. Like most global numerical weather prediction models such as
the GFS, global climate models are often spectral models [42] instead of grid models. Spectral models are often used
for global models because some computations in modeling can be performed faster thus reducing the time needed to
run the model simulation.
Global climate model 206

Computations involved
Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and
ice. They are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the climate system to projections of future
climate.
All climate models take account of incoming energy as short wave electromagnetic radiation, chiefly visible and
short-wave (near) infrared, as well as outgoing energy as long wave (far) infrared electromagnetic radiation from the
earth. Any imbalance results in a change in temperature.
The most talked-about models of recent years have been those relating temperature to emissions of carbon dioxide
(see greenhouse gas). These models project an upward trend in the surface temperature record, as well as a more
rapid increase in temperature at higher altitudes.[43]
Three (or more properly, four since time is also considered) dimensional GCM's discretise the equations for fluid
motion and energy transfer and integrate these over time. They also contain parametrisations for processes—such as
convection—that occur on scales too small to be resolved directly.
Atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) model the atmosphere and impose sea surface temperatures as boundary conditions.
Coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs (AOGCMs, e.g. HadCM3, EdGCM, GFDL CM2.X, ARPEGE-Climat[44] )
combine the two models.
Models can range from relatively simple to quite complex:
• A simple radiant heat transfer model that treats the earth as a single point and averages outgoing energy
• this can be expanded vertically (radiative-convective models), or horizontally
• finally, (coupled) atmosphere–ocean–sea ice global climate models discretise and solve the full equations for
mass and energy transfer and radiant exchange.
This is not a full list; for example "box models" can be written to treat flows across and within ocean basins.
Furthermore, other types of modelling can be interlinked, such as land use, allowing researchers to predict the
interaction between climate and ecosystems.

Box models
Box models are simplified versions of complex systems, reducing them to boxes (or reservoirs) linked by fluxes.
The boxes are assumed to be mixed homogeneously. Within a given box, the concentration of any chemical species
is therefore uniform. However, the abundance of a species within a given box may vary as a function of time due to
the input to (or loss from) the box or due to the production, consumption or decay of this species within the box.
Simple box models, i.e. box model with a small number of boxes whose properties (e.g. their volume) do not change
with time, are often useful to derive analytical formulas describing the dynamics and steady-state abundance of a
species. More complex box models are usually solved using numerical techniques.
Box models are used extensively to model environmental systems or ecosystems and in studies of ocean circulation
and the carbon cycle.[45]
Global climate model 207

Zero-dimensional models
A very simple model of the radiative equilibrium of the Earth is:

where
• the left hand side represents the incoming energy from the Sun
• the right hand side represents the outgoing energy from the Earth, calculated from the Stefan-Boltzmann law
assuming a constant radiative temperature, T, that is to be found,
and
• S is the solar constant - the incoming solar radiation per unit area—about 1367 W·m−2
• is the Earth's average albedo, measured to be 0.3.[46] [47]
• r is Earth's radius—approximately 6.371×106m
• π is the mathematical constant (3.141...)
• is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant—approximately 5.67×10−8 J·K−4·m−2·s−1
• is the effective emissivity of earth, about 0.612
The constant πr2 can be factored out, giving

Solving for the temperature,

This yields an average earth temperature of 288 K (15 °C; 59 °F).[48] This is because the above equation represents
the effective radiative temperature of the Earth (including the clouds and atmosphere). The use of effective
emissivity and albedo account for the greenhouse effect.
This very simple model is quite instructive. For example, it easily determines the effect on average earth temperature
of changes in solar constant or change of albedo or effective earth emissivity. Using the simple formula, the percent
change of the average amount of each parameter, considered independently, to cause a one degree Celsius change in
steady-state average earth temperature is as follows:
• Solar constant 1.4%
• Albedo 3.3%
• Effective emissivity 1.4%
The average emissivity of the earth is readily estimated from available data. The emissivities of terrestrial surfaces
are all in the range of 0.96 to 0.99[49] [50] (except for some small desert areas which may be as low as 0.7). Clouds,
however, which cover about half of the earth’s surface, have an average emissivity of about 0.5[51] (which must be
reduced by the fourth power of the ratio of cloud absolute temperature to average earth absolute temperature) and an
average cloud temperature of about 258 K (−15 °C; 5 °F).[52] Taking all this properly into account results in an
effective earth emissivity of about 0.64 (earth average temperature 285 K (12 °C; 53 °F)).
This simple model readily determines the effect of changes in solar output or change of earth albedo or effective
earth emissivity on average earth temperature. It says nothing, however about what might cause these things to
change. Zero-dimensional models do not address the temperature distribution on the earth or the factors that move
energy about the earth.
Global climate model 208

Radiative-Convective Models
The zero-dimensional model above, using the solar constant and given average earth temperature, determines the
effective earth emissivity of long wave radiation emitted to space. This can be refined in the vertical to a
zero-dimensional radiative-convective model, which considers two processes of energy transport:
• upwelling and downwelling radiative transfer through atmospheric layers that both absorb and emit infrared
radiation
• upward transport of heat by convection (especially important in the lower troposphere).
The radiative-convective models have advantages over the simple model: they can determine the effects of varying
greenhouse gas concentrations on effective emissivity and therefore the surface temperature. But added parameters
are needed to determine local emissivity and albedo and address the factors that move energy about the earth.
Links:
• "Effect of Ice-Albedo Feedback on Global Sensitivity in a One-Dimensional Radiative-Convective Climate
Model" [53]
• http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/258.htm

Higher Dimension Models


The zero-dimensional model may be expanded to consider the energy transported horizontally in the atmosphere.
This kind of model may well be zonally averaged. This model has the advantage of allowing a rational dependence
of local albedo and emissivity on temperature - the poles can be allowed to be icy and the equator warm - but the
lack of true dynamics means that horizontal transports have to be specified.
• http://www.shodor.org/master/environmental/general/energy/application.html

EMICs (Earth-system Models of Intermediate Complexity)


Depending on the nature of questions asked and the pertinent time scales, there are, on the one extreme, conceptual,
more inductive models, and, on the other extreme, general circulation models operating at the highest spatial and
temporal resolution currently feasible. Models of intermediate complexity bridge the gap. One example is the
Climber-3 model. Its atmosphere is a 2.5-dimensional statistical-dynamical model with 7.5° × 22.5° resolution and
time step of 1/2 a day; the ocean is MOM-3 (Modular Ocean Model) with a 3.75° × 3.75° grid and 24 vertical levels.
• http://www.pik-potsdam.de/emics/

Climate modellers
A climate modeller is a person who designs, develops, implements, tests, maintains or exploits climate models.
There are three major types of institutions where a climate modeller may be found:
• In a national meteorological service. Most national weather services have at least a climatology section.
• In a university. Departments that may have climate modellers on staff include atmospheric sciences, meteorology,
climatology, or geography, amongst others.
• In national or international research laboratories specialising in this field, such as the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR, in Boulder, Colorado, USA), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
(GFDL, in Princeton, New Jersey, USA), the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (in Exeter, UK),
the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, or the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL in
Paris, France). The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), hosted by the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO), coordinates research activities on climate modelling worldwide.
Global climate model 209

Climate models on the web


• National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System [54] (NOMADS) is a NOAA Web-services based
project providing both real-time and retrospective format independent access to climate and weather model data.
• Dapper/DChart [55] — plot and download model data referenced by the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
• http://www.hadleycentre.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/models/modeltypes.html — Hadley Centre for
Climate Prediction and Research — general info on their models
• http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu/ — NCAR/UCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM)
• http://www.climateprediction.net — do it yourself climate prediction
• http://www.giss.nasa.gov/tools/modelE/ — the primary research GCM developed by NASA/GISS (Goddard
Institute for Space Studies)
• http://edgcm.columbia.edu/ — the original NASA/GISS global climate model (GCM) with a user-friendly
interface for PCs and Macs
• http://www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca/ — CCCma model info and interface to retrieve model data
• http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/CM2.X/ — NOAA / Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2 global
climate model info and model output data files
• http://www.climate.uvic.ca/ — University of Victoria Global climate model, free for download. Leading
researcher was a contributing author to the recent IPCC report on climate change.

References
[1] ": The First Climate Model" (http:/ / celebrating200years. noaa. gov/ breakthroughs/ climate_model/ welcome. html). NOAA 200th
Celebration. 2007. . Retrieved 2010-04-20.
[2] Phillips, Norman A. (April 1956). "The general circulation of the atmosphere: a numerical experiment". Quarterly Journal of the Royal
Meteorological Society 82 (352): 123–154.
[3] Cox, John D. (2002). Storm Watchers. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.. p. 210. ISBN 047138108X.
[4] Lynch, Peter (2006). "The ENIAC Integrations". The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction. Cambridge University Press.
pp. 206–208. ISBN 9780521857291.
[5] http:/ / celebrating200years. noaa. gov/ breakthroughs/ climate_model/ welcome. html
[6] Collins, William D.; et al. (June 2004). "Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0)" (http:/ / www. cesm. ucar.
edu/ models/ atm-cam/ docs/ description/ description. pdf). University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. . Retrieved 2011-01-03.
[7] Xue, Yongkang and Michael J. Fennessey (1996-03-20). "Impact of vegetation properties on U. S. summer weather prediction" (http:/ / www.
geog. ucla. edu/ ~yxue/ pdf/ 1996jgr. pdf). Journal of Geophysical Research (American Geophysical Union) 101 (D3): 7419. . Retrieved
2011-01-06.
[8] McGuffie, K. and A. Henderson-Sellers (2005). A climate modelling primer. John Wiley and Sons. p. 188. ISBN 9780470857519.
[9] Allen, Jeannie (2004-02). "Tango in the Atmosphere: Ozone and Climate Change" (http:/ / www. theozonehole. com/ climate. htm). NASA
Earth Observatory. . Retrieved 2010-04-20.
[10] Ken, Richard A (2001-04-13). "Global Warming: Rising Global Temperature, Rising Uncertainty" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/
content/ full/ 292/ 5515/ 192). Science 292 (5515): 192–194. doi:10.1126/science.292.5515.192. PMID 11305301. . Retrieved 2010-04-20.
[11] "Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project" (http:/ / www-pcmdi. llnl. gov/ projects/ amip/ index. php). The Program for Climate Model
Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. . Retrieved 2010-04-21.
[12] C. Jablonowski , M. Herzog , J. E. Penner , R. C. Oehmke , Q. F. Stout , B. van Leer, "Adaptive Grids for Weather and Climate Models"
(http:/ / citeseerx. ist. psu. edu/ viewdoc/ summary?doi=10. 1. 1. 60. 5091) (2004). See also Christiane Jablonowski, Adaptive Mesh
Refinement (AMR) for Weather and Climate Models (http:/ / www-personal. umich. edu/ ~cjablono/ amr. html) page (accessed July 24, 2010)
[13] NCAR Command Language documentation: Non-uniform grids that NCL can contour (http:/ / www. ncl. ucar. edu/ Document/ Graphics/
contour_grids. shtml) (accessed July 24, 2010)
[14] "High Resolution Global Environmental Modelling (HiGEM) home page" (http:/ / higem. nerc. ac. uk/ ). Natural Environment Research
Council and Met Office. May 18 2004. . Retrieved October 5 2010.
[15] "Mesoscale modelling" (http:/ / www. metoffice. gov. uk/ science/ creating/ hoursahead/ mesoscale. html). . Retrieved 5 October 2010.
[16] "Climate Model Will Be First To Use A Geodesic Grid" (http:/ / www. unisci. com/ stories/ 20013/ 0924011. htm). Daly University Science
News. 24 September 2001. . Retrieved 3 May 2011.
[17] "Gridding the sphere" (http:/ / mitgcm. org/ projects/ cubedsphere/ ). MIT GCM. . Retrieved 9 September 2010.
[18] http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ arakawa. htm
[19] http:/ / grads. iges. org/ reps/ rep27/ colarep27. html
Global climate model 210

[20] http:/ / www-pcmdi. llnl. gov/ projects/ modeldoc/ amip/ 10Tbl2. 10. html
[21] http:/ / rainbow. llnl. gov/ projects/ modeldoc/ cmip/ table4. html
[22] http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ GCM. htm
[23] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig9-3. htm
[24] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 348. htm#fig93
[25] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig9-5. htm
[26] IPCC (2007). "Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report. htm)"]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp. 104. .
Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[27] Pope, V. (2008). "Met Office: The scientific evidence for early action on climate change" (http:/ / www. metoffice. gov. uk/ climatechange/
policymakers/ action/ evidence. html). Met Office website. . Retrieved 2009-03-07.
[28] Sokolov, A.P. et al. (2009). "Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without Policy) and
Climate Parameters" (http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ perlserv/ ?request=get-abstract& doi=10. 1175/ 2009JCLI2863. 1). Journal of Climate 22
(19): 5175–5204. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2863.1. . Retrieved 2009-01-12.
[29] "Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ figspm-4. htm). .
[30] "Simulated global warming 1860–2000" (http:/ / www. hadleycentre. gov. uk/ research/ hadleycentre/ pubs/ talks/ sld017. html). .
[31] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ figspm-4. htm
[32] http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20060420125451/ http:/ / www4. nationalacademies. org/ news. nsf/ isbn/ 0309068916?OpenDocument
[33] http:/ / liftoff. msfc. nasa. gov/ academy/ space/ greenhouse. html
[34] http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ amsonline/ ?request=get-document& doi=10. 1175%2FJCLI3799. 1
[35] http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ amsonline/ ?request=get-abstract& doi=10. 1175%2F1520-0442(2000)013%3C0538:TSOTTH%3E2. 0.
CO%3B2
[36] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 308. htm
[37] http:/ / pubs. giss. nasa. gov/ abstracts/ 2000/ CoveyAbeOuchi. html
[38] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 339. htm
[39] http:/ / epw. senate. gov/ repwhitepapers/ ClimateChange. pdf
[40] http:/ / www. ecmwf. int/ index_forecasts. html
[41] http:/ / www. metoffice. gov. uk/ research/ nwp/ numerical/ operational/ index. html
[42] http:/ / www-das. uwyo. edu/ ~geerts/ cwx/ notes/ chap12/ nwp_gcm. html
[43] IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 Chapter 10: Global Climate Projections (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg1/ en/ ch10. html)
[44] http:/ / www. cnrm. meteo. fr/ gmgec/ site_engl/ arpege/ arpege_en. html
[45] Sarmiento, J.L.; Toggweiler, J.R. (1984). "A new model for the role of the oceans in determining atmospheric P CO 2" (http:/ / www.
nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v308/ n5960/ abs/ 308621a0. html). Nature 308 (5960): 621–4. doi:10.1038/308621a0. .
[46] Goode, P. R.; et al. (2001). "Earthshine Observations of the Earth’s Reflectance". Geophys. Res. Lett. 28 (9): 1671–4.
Bibcode 2001GeoRL..28.1671G. doi:10.1029/2000GL012580.
[47] "Scientists Watch Dark Side of the Moon to Monitor Earth's Climate" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ sci_soc/ prrl/ prrl0113. html). American
Geophysical Union. April 17, 2001. .
[48] http:/ / eospso. gsfc. nasa. gov/ ftp_docs/ lithographs/ CERES_litho. pdf
[49] http:/ / www. icess. ucsb. edu/ modis/ EMIS/ html/ seawater. html
[50] Jin M, Liang S (15 June 2006). "An Improved Land Surface Emissivity Parameter for Land Surface Models Using Global Remote Sensing
Observations" (http:/ / www. glue. umd. edu/ ~sliang/ papers/ Jin2006. emissivity. pdf). J. Climate 19 (12): 2867–81.
doi:10.1175/JCLI3720.1. .
[51] T.R. Shippert, S.A. Clough, P.D. Brown, W.L. Smith, R.O. Knuteson, and S.A. Ackerman. "Spectral Cloud Emissivities from
LBLRTM/AERI QME" (http:/ / www. arm. gov/ publications/ proceedings/ conf08/ extended_abs/ shippert_tr. pdf). Proceedings of the Eighth
Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Science Team Meeting March 1998 Tucson, Arizona. .
[52] A.G. Gorelik, V. Sterljadkin, E. Kadygrov, and A. Koldaev. "Microwave and IR Radiometry for Estimation of Atmospheric Radiation
Balance and Sea Ice Formation" (http:/ / www. arm. gov/ publications/ proceedings/ conf11/ extended_abs/ gorelik_ag. pdf). Proceedings of
the Eleventh Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Science Team Meeting March 2001 Atlanta, Georgia. .
[53] doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1980)037<0545:EOIAFO>2.0.CO;2
This citation will be automatically completed in the next few minutes. You can jump the queue or expand by hand (http:/ / en. wikipedia. org/
wiki/ Template:cite_doi/ 10. 1175. 2f1520-0469. 281980. 29037. 3c0545%3aeoiafo. 3e2. 0. co. 3b2?preload=Template:Cite_doi/ preload&
editintro=Template:Cite_doi/ editintro& action=edit)
[54] http:/ / nomads. ncdc. noaa. gov/
[55] http:/ / dapper. pmel. noaa. gov/ dchart/ index. html?cid=AAAAHg@@
Global climate model 211

External links
• Climate Change Prediction: A challenging scientific problem (2005) (http://www.iop.org/activity/policy/
Publications/file_4147.pdf). By Prof. A.J. Thorpe. Explains how predictions of future climate change are made
using climate models.
• Climate Simulations for 1951–2050 with a Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Model (http://stephenschneider.
stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/SunHansenJOC.pdf) by Sun and Hansen (2003)
• History of Global Climate Modelling (http://www.aip.org/history/climate/GCM.htm)
• E-Media from GFDL's CCVP Group (http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/e-media-gfdl-ccvp-group-main). Includes
videos, animations, podcasts and transcripts on climate models.
• (http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~fms) GFDL's Flexible Modeling System containing code for the climate models.
• Dapper/DChart (http://dapper.pmel.noaa.gov/dchart/index.html?cid=AAAAHg@@) - plot and download
model data referenced by the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change.
• Chapter 8: Climate Models and Their Evaluation (http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/
ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf). The IPCC Working Group I Fourth Assessment Report (2007).
• CCSP, 2008: Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations (http://www.climatescience.gov/
Library/sap/sap3-1/final-report/default.htm) A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the
Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Bader D.C., C. Covey, W.J. Gutowski Jr., I.M. Held, K.E. Kunkel,
R.L. Miller, R.T. Tokmakian and M.H. Zhang (Authors)]. Department of Energy, Office of Biological and
Environmental Research, Washington, D.C., USA, 124 pp.
• BBC News: Models 'key to climate forecasts' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6320515.stm). Dr Vicky
Pope of the Hadley Centre explains how computer models are used to predict the day-to-day weather and changes
to the climate (2007).
• The scientific basis for projections of climate change (in a nutshell) (http://uc.princeton.edu/main/index.php/
component/content/article/3181). Video of a lecture given at Princeton University by Isaac Held, Professor of
Geosciences and Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory (GFDL). February 26, 2008.
• (IPCC 2001 section 8.3) (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/313.htm) — on model hierarchy
• (IPCC 2001 section 8) (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/308.htm) — much information on
coupled GCM's
• Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/projects/modeldoc/cmip/index.html)
• On the Radiative and Dynamical Feedbacks over the Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue (http://ams.allenpress.
com/amsonline/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175/2786.1)
• Basic Radiation Calculations (http://www.aip.org/history/climate/Radmath.htm) — The Discovery of Global
Warming
• Henderson-Sellers, A.; Robinson, P. J. (1999). Contemporary Climatology (http://www.pearsoned.co.uk/
Bookshop/detail.asp?item=100000000002249). New York: Longman. ISBN 0-582-27631-4.
History of climate change science 212

History of climate change science


The history of the scientific discovery of climate change began in the early 19th century when natural changes in
paleoclimate were first suspected and the natural greenhouse effect first identified. In the late 19th century, scientists
first argued that human emissions of greenhouse gases could change the climate, but the calculations were disputed.
In the 1950s and 1960s, scientists increasingly thought that human activity could change the climate on a timescale
of decades, but were unsure whether the net impact would be to warm or cool the climate. During the 1970s,
scientific opinion increasingly favored the warming viewpoint. In the 1980s the consensus position formed that
human activity was in the process of warming the climate, leading to the beginning of the modern period of global
warming science summarized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Paleoclimate change and the natural greenhouse effect, early and mid 1800s
Prior to the 18th century, scientists had not suspected that prehistoric
climates were different from the modern period. By the late 18th
century, geologists found evidence of a succession of geological ages
with changes in climate. There were various competing theories about
these changes, and James Hutton, whose ideas of cyclic change over
huge periods of time were later dubbed uniformitarianism, was among
those who found signs of past glacial activity in places too warm for
glaciers in modern times.[1]

Although he wasn't a scientist, in 1815 Jean-Pierre Perraudin described Erratics, boulders deposited by glaciers far from
for the first time how glaciers might be responsible for the giant any existing glaciers, led geologists to the
boulders seen in alpine valleys. As he hiked in the Val de Bagnes, he conclusion that climate had changed in the past.

noticed giant granite rocks that were scattered around the narrow
valley. He knew that it would take an exceptional force to move such large rocks. He also noticed how glaciers left
stripes on the land, and concluded that it was the ice that had carried the boulders down into the valleys.[2]

His idea was initially met with disbelief. Jean de Charpentier wrote, "I found his hypothesis so extraordinary and
even so extravagant that I considered it as not worth examining or even considering."[3] Despite Charpentier
rejecting his theory, Perraudin eventually convinced Ignaz Venetz that it might be worth studying. Venetz convinced
Charpentier, who in turn convinced the influential scientist Louis Agassiz that the glacial theory had merit.[2]
Agassiz developed a theory of what he termed "Ice Age" — when glaciers covered Europe and much of North
America. In 1837 Agassiz was the first to scientifically propose that the Earth had been subject to a past ice age.[4]
William Buckland had led attempts in Britain to adapt the geological theory of catastrophism to account for erratic
boulders and other "diluvium" as relics of the Biblical flood. This was strongly opposed by Charles Lyell's version of
Hutton's uniformitarianism, and was gradually abandoned by Buckland and other catastrophist geologists. A field
trip to the Alps with Agassiz in October 1838 convinced Buckland that features in Britain had been caused by
glaciation, and both he and Lyell strongly supported the ice age theory which became widely accepted by the
1870s.[1]
In the same general period that scientists first suspected climate change and ice ages, Joseph Fourier, in 1824, found
that Earth's atmosphere kept the planet warmer than would be the case in a vacuum, and he made the first
calculations of the warming effect. Fourier recognized that the atmosphere transmitted visible light waves efficiently
to the earth's surface. The earth then absorbed visible light and emitted infrared radiation in response, but the
atmosphere did not transmit infrared efficiently, which therefore increased surface temperatures. He also suspected
that human activities could influence climate, although he focused primarily on land use changes. In a 1827 paper
Fourier stated, "The establishment and progress of human societies, the action of natural forces, can notably change,
History of climate change science 213

and in vast regions, the state of the surface, the distribution of water and the great movements of the air. Such effects
are able to make to vary, in the course of many centuries, the average degree of heat; because the analytic
expressions contain coefficients relating to the state of the surface and which greatly influence the temperature."[5]
John Tyndall took Fourier's work one step further when he investigated the absorption of heat in different gases.[6]

First calculations of human-induced climate change, late 1800s


By the late 1890s, American scientist Samuel Pierpoint Langley had
attempted to determine the surface temperature of the moon by
measuring infrared radiation leaving the moon and reaching the
earth.[7] The angle of the moon in the sky when a scientist took a
measurement determined how much CO2 and water vapor the moon's
radiation had to pass through to reach the earth's surface, resulting in
weaker measurements when the moon was low in the sky. This result
was unsurprising given that scientists had known about the greenhouse
effect for decades.

Meanwhile, Swedish scientist Arvid Högbom had been attempting to


quantify natural sources of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) for
purposes of understanding the global carbon cycle. Högbom decided to
compare the natural sources with estimated carbon production from
industrial sources in the 1890s.[8]
In 1896 Svante Arrhenius calculated the effect of
Another Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius, integrated Högbom and a doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide to be an
Langley's work. He realized that Högbom's calculation of human increase in surface temperatures of 5-6 degrees
Celsius.
influence on carbon would eventually lead to a doubling of
atmospheric carbon dioxide, and used Langley's observations of
increased infrared absorption where moon rays pass through atmosphere at a low angle, encountering more CO2, to
estimate an atmospheric warming effect from a future doubling of CO2. He also realized the effect would also reduce
snow and ice cover on earth, making the planet darker and warmer. Adding in this effect gave a total calculated
warming of 5-6 degrees Celsius. However, because of the relatively low rate of CO2 production in 1896, Arrhenius
thought the warming would take thousands of years and might even be beneficial to humanity.[8]

Controversy and disinterest, early 1900s to mid 1900s


Arrhenius' calculations were disputed and subsumed into a larger debate over whether atmospheric changes had
caused the ice ages. Experimental attempts to measure infrared absorption in the laboratory showed little differences
resulted from increasing CO2 levels, and also found significant overlap between absorption by CO2 and absorption
by water vapor, all of which suggested that increasing carbon dioxide emissions would have little climatic effect.
These early experiments were later found to be insufficiently accurate, given the instrumentation of the time. Many
scientists also thought that oceans would quickly absorb any excess carbon dioxide.[8]
While a few early 20th-Century scientists supported Arrhenius' work, including E. O. Hulburt and Guy Stewart
Callendar, most scientific opinion disputed or ignored it through the early 1950s.[8]
History of climate change science 214

Concern and increasing urgency, 1950s and 1960s


Better spectrography in the 1950s showed that CO2 and water vapor absorption lines did not overlap completely.
Climatologists also realized that little water vapor was present in the upper atmosphere. Both developments showed
that the CO2 greenhouse effect would not be overwhelmed by water vapor.[8]
Scientists began using computers to develop more sophisticated versions of Arrhenius' equations, and carbon-14
isotope analysis showed that CO2 released from fossil fuels were not immediately absorbed by the ocean. Better
understanding of ocean chemistry led to a realization that the ocean surface layer had limited ability to absorb carbon
dioxide. By the late 1950s, more scientists were arguing that carbon dioxide emissions could be a problem, with
some projecting in 1959 that CO2 would rise 25% by the year 2000, with potentially "radical" effects on climate.[8]
By the 1960s, aerosol pollution ("smog") had become a serious local problem in many cities, and some scientists
began to consider whether the cooling effect of particulate pollution could affect global temperatures. Scientists were
unsure whether the cooling effect of particulate pollution or warming effect of greenhouse gas emissions would
predominate, but regardless, began to suspect the net effect could be disruptive to climate in the matter of decades. In
his 1968 book The Population Bomb, Paul R. Ehrlich wrote "the greenhouse effect is being enhanced now by the
greatly increased level of carbon dioxide... [this] is being countered by low-level clouds generated by contrails, dust,
and other contaminants... At the moment we cannot predict what the overall climatic results will be of our using the
atmosphere as a garbage dump."[9]

Scientists increasingly predicting warming, 1970s


Scientists in the 1970s started to shift from the uncertain leanings in
the 1960s to increasingly a prediction of future warming. A survey of
the scientific literature from 1965 to 1979 found 7 articles predicting
cooling and 44 predicting warming, with the warming articles also
being cited much more often in subsequent scientific literature.[10]
Several scientific panels from this time period concluded that more
research was needed to determine whether warming or cooling was
Mean temperature anomalies during the period likely, indicating that the trend in the scientific literature had not yet
1965 to 1975 with respect to the average become a consensus.[11] [12] On the other hand, the 1979 World
temperatures from 1937 to 1946. This dataset was Climate Conference of the World Meteorological Organization
not available at the time.
concluded "it appears plausible that an increased amount of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere can contribute to a gradual warming of the
lower atmosphere, especially at higher latitudes....It is possible that some effects on a regional and global scale may
be detectable before the end of this century and become significant before the middle of the next century."[13]

In July of 1979 the United States National Research Council published a report, [14] concluding (in part):
When it is assumed that the CO2 content of the atmosphere is doubled and statistical thermal equilibrium is
achieved, the more realistic of the modeling efforts predict a global surface warming of between 2°C and
3.5°C, with greater increases at high latitudes. …
… we have tried but have been unable to find any overlooked or underestimated physical effects that could
reduce the currently estimated global warmings due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 to negligible
proportions or reverse them altogether. …
The mainstream news media at the time did not reflect scientific opinion. In 1975, Newsweek magazine published a
story that warned of "ominous signs that the Earth's weather patterns have begun to change," and reported "a drop of
half a degree [Fahrenheit] in average ground temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere between 1945 and 1968."[15]
The article continued by stating that evidence of global cooling was so strong that meteorologists were having "a
History of climate change science 215

hard time keeping up with it."[15] On October 23, 2006, Newsweek issued an update stating that it had been
"spectacularly wrong about the near-term future".[16]

Climate change scientific consensus begins development, 1980-1988


By the early 1980s, the slight cooling trend from 1945-1975 had
stopped. Aerosol pollution had decreased in many areas due to
environmental legislation and changes in fuel use, and it became clear
that the cooling effect from aerosols was not going to increase
substantially while carbon dioxide levels were progressively
increasing.
In 1985 a joint UNEP/WMO/ICSU Conference on the "Assessment of
the Role of Carbon Dioxide and Other Greenhouse Gases in Climate
Variations and Associated Impacts" assessed the role of carbon dioxide
and aerosols in the atmosphere, and concluded that greenhouse gases
"are expected" to cause significant warming in the next century and James Hansen during his 1988 testimony to

that some warming is inevitable.[17] In June 1988, James E. Hansen Congress, which alerted the public to the dangers
of global warming.
made one of the first assessments that human-caused warming had
already measurably affected global climate.[18]

Modern period: 1988 to present


IPCC

Assessment reports:

First (1990)

1992 sup.

Second (1995)

Third (2001)

Fourth (2007)

Fifth (2014)

UNFCCC | WMO |
UNEP

Both the UNEP and WMO had followed up on the 1985 Conference with additional meetings. In 1988 the WMO
established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change with the support of the UNEP. The IPCC continues its
work through the present day, and issues a series of Assessment Reports and supplemental reports that describe the
state of scientific understanding at the time each report is prepared. Scientific developments during this period are
discussed in the articles for each Assessment Report.
History of climate change science 216

Discovery of other climate changing factors


Methane: In 1859, John Tyndall determined that coal gas, a mix of methane and other gases, strongly absorbed
infrared radiation. Methane was subsequently detected in the atmosphere in 1948, and in the 1980s scientists realized
that human emissions were having a substantial impact.[19]
Milankovitch cycles: Beginning in 1864, Scottish geologist James Croll proposed that changes in earth's orbit could
trigger cycles of ice ages by changing the total amount of winter sunlight in the high latitudes. His ideas were widely
discussed but not accepted. Serbian geophysicist Milutin Milanković developed these concepts in more detail in
1941 with the publication of Kanon der Erdbestrahlung und seine Anwendung auf das Eiszeitenproblem (Canon of
Insolation of the Earth and Its Application to the Problem of the Ice Ages). Milanković's ideas became the consensus
position in the 1970s, when ocean sediment dating matched the prediction of 100,000 year ice-age cycles.
Chlorofluorocarbon: In 1973, British scientist James Lovelock speculated that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) could
have a global warming effect. In 1975, V. Ramanathan found that a CFC molecule could be 10,000 times more
effective in absorbing infrared radiation than a carbon dioxide molecule, making CFCs potentially important despite
their very low concentrations in the atmosphere. While most early work on CFCs focused on their role in ozone
depletion, by 1985 scientists had concluded that CFCs together with methane and other trace gases could have nearly
as important a climate effect as increases in CO2.[19]

Published works discussing the history of climate change science


Historian Spencer Weart wrote The Discovery of Global Warming that summarized the history of climate change
science, and provided an extensive supplementary website at the American Institute of Physics.[20]
The IPCC published a review of the later period of climate science in December 2004, "16 Years of Scientific
Assessment in Support of the Climate Convention".[21]
The American Meteorological Society published "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Consensus" that focuses on
the middle period in climate science.[10]
The Long Thaw by David Archer is primarily about current understanding of climate science but also includes
information about the science's history.[7]
Keeping Your Cool - Canada in a Warming World by Andrew Weaver addresses many questions about climate
science including extensive discussion of its history.

References
[1] Young, Davis A. (1995). The biblical Flood: a case study of the Church's response to extrabiblical evidence (http:/ / www. bringyou. to/
apologetics/ p82. htm). Grand Rapids, Mich: Eerdmans. ISBN 0-8028-0719-4. . Retrieved 2008-09-16.
[2] Holli Riebeek (28 June 2005). "Paleoclimatology" (http:/ / earthobservatory. nasa. gov/ Features/ Paleoclimatology/ paleoclimatology_intro.
php). NASA. . Retrieved 01 July 2009.
[3] Imbrie, J. and K. P. Imbrie, 1979: Ice Ages, Enslow Publishers: Hillside, New Jersey.
[4] E.P. Evans: The Authorship of the Glacial Theory, North American review. / Volume 145, Issue 368, July 1887 (http:/ / rs6. loc. gov/ cgi-bin/
query/ r?ammem/ ncps:@field(DOCID+ @lit(ABQ7578-0145-13))::|The). Accessed on February 25, 2008.
[5] William Connolley. "Translation by W M Connolley of: Fourier 1827: MEMOIRE sur les temperatures du globe terrestre et des espaces
planetaires" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ fourier_1827/ fourier_1827. html). . Retrieved 18 July 2009.
[6] John Tyndall (1872) "Contributions to molecular physics in the domain of radiant heat" (http:/ / ia341003. us. archive. org/ 0/ items/
contributionsto01tyndgoog/ contributionsto01tyndgoog. djvu)DjVu
[7] David Archer (2009). The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth's Climate. Princeton University Press.
p. 19. ISBN 9780691136547.
[8] Spencer Weart (2003). "The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ co2. htm). The Discovery of Global
Warming. .
[9] Paul R. Ehrlich (1968). The Population Bomb. p. 52.
[10] Peterson, T.C., W.M. Connolley, and J. Fleck (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bull. Amer. Meteor.
Soc. 89: 1325–1337. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.
History of climate change science 217

[11] Science and the Challenges Ahead. Report of the National Science Board (http:/ / www. archive. org/ details/ sciencechallenge00nati). .
[12] W M Connolley. "The 1975 US National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council Report" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/
sci/ iceage/ nas-1975. html). . Retrieved 28 June 2009.
[13] "Declaration of the World Climate Conference" (http:/ / www. dgvn. de/ fileadmin/ user_upload/ DOKUMENTE/ WCC-3/
Declaration_WCC1. pdf). World Meteorological Organization. . Retrieved 28 June 2009.
[14] Report of an Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, July 23-27, 1979, to the Climate Research
Board, Assembly of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Research Council (1979). Carbon Dioxide and Climate:A Scientific
Assessment (http:/ / books. nap. edu/ catalog. php?record_id=12181). Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 0309119103. .
[15] Peter Gwynne (1975). "The Cooling World" (http:/ / www. denisdutton. com/ newsweek_coolingworld. pdf) (PDF). .
[16] Jerry Adler (23 October 2006). "Climate Change: Prediction Perils" (http:/ / www. newsweek. com/ id/ 72481). Newsweek. .
[17] World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) (1986). "Report of the International Conference on the assessment of the role of carbon dioxide
and of other greenhouse gases in climate variations and associated impacts" (http:/ / www. icsu-scope. org/ downloadpubs/ scope29/
statement. html). Villach, Austria. . Retrieved 28 June 2009.
[18] "Statement of Dr. James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies" (http:/ / image. guardian. co. uk/ sys-files/
Environment/ documents/ 2008/ 06/ 23/ ClimateChangeHearing1988. pdf). The Guardian (London). . Retrieved 28 June 2009.
[19] Spencer Weart (2003). "Other Greenhouse Gases" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ othergas. htm). The Discovery of Global
Warming. .
[20] Spencer Weart (2003). "The Discovery of Global Warming" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ ). American Institute of Physics. .
[21] "16 Years of Scientific Assessment in Support of the Climate Convention" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ 10th-anniversary/
anniversary-brochure. pdf). 2004. . Retrieved 28 June 2008.

External links
• Joseph Fourier's 1827 article, Memoire sur les temperatures du globe terrestre et des espaces planetaires (http://
www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/fourier_1827/fourier_1827.html), in French and English, with annotations by
William Connolley
• Svante Arrhenius' April 1896 article, On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the
Ground (http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/1/18/Arrhenius.pdf)
• How Was the Greenhouse Effect Discovered? (http://pastandfutureclimates.blogspot.com/2009/02/
how-was-greenhouse-effect-discovered.html)
Scientific opinion on climate change 218

Scientific opinion on climate change


Scientific opinion on climate change is given by synthesis reports, scientific bodies of national or international
standing, and surveys of opinion among climate scientists. Individual scientists, universities, and laboratories
contribute to the overall scientific opinion via their peer reviewed publications, and the areas of collective agreement
and relative certainty are summarised in these high level reports and surveys. Self-selected lists of individuals'
opinions, such as petitions, are not normally considered to be part of the scientific process.
National and international science academies and scientific societies have assessed the current scientific opinion, in
particular on recent global warming. These assessments have largely followed or endorsed the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) position of January 2001 which states:
An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the
climate system... There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years
is attributable to human activities.[1]
No scientific body of national or international standing has maintained a dissenting opinion; the last was the
American Association of Petroleum Geologists, which in 2007 updated its 1999 statement rejecting the likelihood of
human influence on recent climate with its current non-committal position.[2] [3] Some other organizations, primarily
those focusing on geology, also hold non-committal positions.

Synthesis reports
Synthesis reports are assessments of scientific literature that compile the results of a range of stand-alone studies in
order to achieve a broad level of understanding, or to describe the state of knowledge of a given subject.[4]

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007


In February 2007, the IPCC released a summary of the forthcoming Fourth Assessment Report. According to this
summary, the Fourth Assessment Report finds that human actions are "very likely" the cause of global warming,
meaning a 90% or greater probability. Global warming in this case is indicated by an increase of 0.75 degrees in
average global temperatures over the last 100 years.[5]
The New York Times reported that “the leading international network of climate scientists has concluded for the first
time that global warming is 'unequivocal' and that human activity is the main driver, very likely' causing most of the
rise in temperatures since 1950”.[6]
A retired journalist for The New York Times, William K. Stevens wrote: “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change said the likelihood was 90 percent to 99 percent that emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon
dioxide, spewed from tailpipes and smokestacks, were the dominant cause of the observed warming of the last 50
years. In the panel’s parlance, this level of certainty is labeled 'very likely'. Only rarely does scientific odds-making
provide a more definite answer than that, at least in this branch of science, and it describes the endpoint, so far, of a
progression.”.[7]
The Associated Press summarized the position on sea level rise:
On sea levels, the report projects rises of 7-23 inches by the end of the century. That could be augmented by an
additional 4-8 inches if recent polar ice sheet melt continues.[8]
Scientific opinion on climate change 219

U.S. Global Change Research Program


formerly the Climate Change Science Program
The U.S. Global Change Research Program reported in June, 2009[9] that:
Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50
years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from
the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests,
agricultural practices, and other activities.
The report, which is about the effects that climate change is having in the United States, also says:
Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases
in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise
in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and
rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been
observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with
average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7°F. Some of the
changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested.

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment


In 2004, the intergovernmental Arctic Council and the non-governmental International Arctic Science Committee
released the synthesis report of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment:[10]
Climate conditions in the past provide evidence that rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are associated
with rising global temperatures. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural
gas), and secondarily the clearing of land, have increased the concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, and
other heat-trapping ("greenhouse") gases in the atmosphere...There is international scientific consensus that
most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.[11]

Statements by organizations
This list of scientific bodies of national or international standing, that have issued formal statements of opinion,
classifies those organizations according to whether they concur with the IPCC view, are non-committal, or dissent
from it.

Statements by concurring organizations

Academies of Science

Joint science academies' statements


Since 2001, 32 national science academies have come together to issue joint declarations confirming anthropogenic
global warming, and urging the nations of the world to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. The signatories of
these statements have been the national science academies:
• of Australia,
• of Belgium,
• of Brazil,
• of Cameroon,
• Royal Society of Canada,
• of the Caribbean,
• of China,
Scientific opinion on climate change 220

• Institut de France,
• of Ghana,
• Leopoldina of Germany,
• of Indonesia,
• of Ireland,
• Accademia nazionale delle scienze of Italy,
• of India,
• of Japan,
• of Kenya,
• of Madagascar,
• of Malaysia,
• of Mexico,
• of Nigeria,
• Royal Society of New Zealand,
• Russian Academy of Sciences,
• of Senegal,
• of South Africa,
• of Sudan,
• Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences,
• of Tanzania,
• of Turkey,
• of Uganda,
• The Royal Society of the United Kingdom,
• of the United States,
• of Zambia,
• and of Zimbabwe.
• 2001-Following the publication of the IPCC Third Assessment Report, seventeen national science academies
issued a joint statement, entitled "The Science of Climate Change", explicitly acknowledging the IPCC position as
representing the scientific consensus on climate change science. The statement, printed in an editorial in the
journal Science on May 18, 2001,[12] was signed by the science academies of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada,
the Caribbean, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden,
Turkey, and the United Kingdom.[13]
• 2005-The national science academies of the G8 nations, plus Brazil, China and India, three of the largest emitters
of greenhouse gases in the developing world, signed a statement on the global response to climate change. The
statement stresses that the scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations
taking prompt action,[14] and explicitly endorsed the IPCC consensus. The eleven signatories were the science
academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the
United States.
• 2007-In preparation for the 33rd G8 summit, the national science academies of the G8+5 nations issued a
declaration referencing the position of the 2005 joint science academies' statement, and acknowledging the
confirmation of their previous conclusion by recent research. Following the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, the
declaration states, "It is unequivocal that the climate is changing, and it is very likely that this is predominantly
caused by the increasing human interference with the atmosphere. These changes will transform the
environmental conditions on Earth unless counter-measures are taken."[15] The thirteen signatories were the
national science academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, India, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South
Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Scientific opinion on climate change 221

• 2008-In preparation for the 34th G8 summit, the national science academies of the G8+5 nations issued a
declaration reiterating the position of the 2005 joint science academies’ statement, and reaffirming “that climate
change is happening and that anthropogenic warming is influencing many physical and biological systems.”
Among other actions, the declaration urges all nations to “(t)ake appropriate economic and policy measures to
accelerate transition to a low carbon society and to encourage and effect changes in individual and national
behaviour.”[16] The thirteen signatories were the same national science academies that issued the 2007 joint
statement.
• 2009-In advance of the UNFCCC negotiations to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009, the national science
academies of the G8+5 nations issued a joint statement declaring, "Climate change and sustainable energy supply
are crucial challenges for the future of humanity. It is essential that world leaders agree on the emission
reductions needed to combat negative consequences of anthropogenic climate change". The statement references
the IPCC's Fourth Assessment of 2007, and asserts that "climate change is happening even faster than previously
estimated; global CO2 emissions since 2000 have been higher than even the highest predictions, Arctic sea ice has
been melting at rates much faster than predicted, and the rise in the sea level has become more rapid."[17] The
thirteen signatories were the same national science academies that issued the 2007 and 2008 joint statements.

InterAcademy Council
As the representative of the world’s scientific and engineering academies,[18] [19] the InterAcademy Council (IAC)
issued a report in 2007 titled Lighting the Way: Toward a Sustainable Energy Future.
Current patterns of energy resources and energy usage are proving detrimental to the long-term welfare of
humanity. The integrity of essential natural systems is already at risk from climate change caused by the
atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases.[20]
Concerted efforts should be mounted for improving energy efficiency and reducing the carbon intensity of the
world economy.[21]

European Academy of Sciences and Arts


In 2007, the European Academy of Sciences and Arts issued a formal declaration on climate change titled Let's Be
Honest:
Human activity is most likely responsible for climate warming. Most of the climatic warming over the last 50
years is likely to have been caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Documented long-term climate changes include changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes
in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and extreme weather including droughts, heavy
precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones. The above development potentially has
dramatic consequences for mankind’s future.[22]

International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences


In 2007, the International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences (CAETS) issued a
Statement on Environment and Sustainable Growth:[23]
As reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), most of the observed global warming
since the mid-20th century is very likely due to human-produced emission of greenhouse gases and this
warming will continue unabated if present anthropogenic emissions continue or, worse, expand without
control.
CAETS, therefore, endorses the many recent calls to decrease and control greenhouse gas emissions to an
acceptable level as quickly as possible.
Scientific opinion on climate change 222

Network of African Science Academies


In 2007, the Network of African Science Academies submitted a joint “statement on sustainability, energy efficiency,
and climate change” to the leaders meeting at the G8 Summit in Heiligendamm, Germany:
A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human
activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for
driving this change.
The IPCC should be congratulated for the contribution it has made to public understanding of the nexus that
exists between energy, climate and sustainability.[24]
The thirteen signatories were the science academies of Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Nigeria, Senegal,
South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, as well as the African Academy of Sciences.

Royal Society of New Zealand


Having signed onto the first joint science academies' statement in 2001, the Royal Society of New Zealand released a
separate statement in 2008 in order to clear up "the controversy over climate change and its causes, and possible
confusion among the public":
The globe is warming because of increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Measurements show that greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere are well above levels seen for many thousands of years. Further global
climate changes are predicted, with impacts expected to become more costly as time progresses. Reducing
future impacts of climate change will require substantial reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.[25]

Royal Society of the United Kingdom


The Royal Society of the United Kingdom has not changed its concurring stance. According to the Telegraph, "The
most prestigious group of scientists in the country was forced to act after forty-three fellows complained that
'uncertainty in the debate' over man made global warming were not being communicated to the public."[26] In May
2010, it announced that it "is presently drafting a new public facing document on climate change, to provide an
updated status report on the science in an easily accessible form, also addressing the levels of certainty of key
components."[27] The society says that it is three years since the last such document was published and that, after an
extensive process of debate and review,[28] [29] the new document was printed in September 2010. It summarises the
current scientific evidence and highlights the areas where the science is well established, where there is still some
debate, and where substantial uncertainties remain. The society has stated that "this is not the same as saying that the
climate science itself is in error – no Fellows have expressed such a view to the RS".[27]

Polish Academy of Sciences


In December 2007, the General Assembly of the Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN) issued a statement endorsing
the IPCC conclusions, and states:
it is the duty of Polish science and the national government to, in a thoughtful, organized and active manner,
become involved in realisation of these ideas.
Problems of global warming, climate change, and their various negative impacts on human life and on the
functioning of entire societies are one of the most dramatic challenges of modern times.
PAS General Assembly calls on the national scientific communities and the national government to actively
support Polish participation in this important endeavor.[30]
Scientific opinion on climate change 223

National Research Council (US)


In 2001, the Committee on the Science of Climate Change of the National Research Council published Climate
Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions.[31] This report explicitly endorses the IPCC view of attribution
of recent climate change as representing the view of the scientific community:
The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot
rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability. Human-induced
warming and associated sea level rises are expected to continue through the 21st century... The IPCC's
conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in
greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this
issue.[31]

General science

American Association for the Advancement of Science


As the world's largest general scientific society, the American Association for the Advancement of Science adopted
an official statement on climate change in 2006:
The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a
growing threat to society....The pace of change and the evidence of harm have increased markedly over the last
five years. The time to control greenhouse gas emissions is now.[32]

American Chemical Society


The American Chemical Society stated:
Careful and comprehensive scientific assessments have clearly demonstrated that the Earth’s climate system is
changing rapidly in response to growing atmospheric burdens of greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosol
particles (IPCC, 2007). There is very little room for doubt that observed climate trends are due to human
activities. The threats are serious and action is urgently needed to mitigate the risks of climate change.
The reality of global warming, its current serious and potentially disastrous impacts on Earth system
properties, and the key role emissions from human activities play in driving these phenomena have been
recognized by earlier versions of this ACS policy statement (ACS, 2004), by other major scientific societies,
including the American Geophysical Union (AGU, 2003), the American Meteorological Society (AMS, 2007)
and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS, 2007), and by the U. S. National
Academies and ten other leading national academies of science (NA, 2005).[33]

American Institute of Physics


The Governing Board of the American Institute of Physics endorsed the AGU statement on human-induced climate
change:[34]
The Governing Board of the American Institute of Physics has endorsed a position statement on climate
change adopted by the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Council in December 2003.

American Physical Society


In November 2007, the American Physical Society (APS) adopted an official statement on climate change:
Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the
Earth's climate. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide as well as methane, nitrous oxide and other gases.
They are emitted from fossil fuel combustion and a range of industrial and agricultural processes.
The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant
disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely
Scientific opinion on climate change 224

to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.


Because the complexity of the climate makes accurate prediction difficult, the APS urges an enhanced effort to
understand the effects of human activity on the Earth’s climate, and to provide the technological options for
meeting the climate challenge in the near and longer terms. The APS also urges governments, universities,
national laboratories and its membership to support policies and actions that will reduce the emission of
greenhouse gases.[35]

Australian Institute of Physics


In 2005, the Australian Institute of Physics (AIP)[36] issued a science policy document in which they stated:
Policy: The AIP supports a reduction of the green house gas emissions that are leading to increased global
temperatures, and encourages research that works towards this goal.
Reason: Research in Australia and overseas shows that an increase in global temperature will adversely affect
the Earth’s climate patterns. The melting of the polar ice caps, combined with thermal expansion, will lead to
rises in sea levels that may impact adversely on our coastal cities. The impact of these changes on biodiversity
will fundamentally change the ecology of Earth.[37]

European Physical Society


In 2007, the European Physical Society issued a position paper regarding energy:
The emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, among which carbon dioxide is the main contributor, has
amplified the natural greenhouse effect and led to global warming. The main contribution stems from burning
fossil fuels. A further increase will have decisive effects on life on earth. An energy cycle with the lowest
possible CO2 emission is called for wherever possible to combat climate change.[38]

European Science Foundation


In 2007, the European Science Foundation issued a Position Paper on climate change:
There is now convincing evidence that since the industrial revolution, human activities, resulting in increasing
concentrations of greenhouse gases have become a major agent of climate change. These greenhouse gases
affect the global climate by retaining heat in the troposphere, thus raising the average temperature of the planet
and altering global atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns.
While on-going national and international actions to curtail and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are essential,
the levels of greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere, and their impact, are likely to persist for several
decades. On-going and increased efforts to mitigate climate change through reduction in greenhouse gases are
therefore crucial.[39]

Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies


In 2008, the Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies (FASTS) issued a policy statement on
climate change:
Global climate change is real and measurable. Since the start of the 20th century, the global mean surface
temperature of the Earth has increased by more than 0.7°C and the rate of warming has been largest in the last
30 years.
Key vulnerabilities arising from climate change include water resources, food supply, health, coastal
settlements, biodiversity and some key ecosystems such as coral reefs and alpine regions. As the atmospheric
concentration of greenhouse gases increases, impacts become more severe and widespread. To reduce the
global net economic, environmental and social losses in the face of these impacts, the policy objective must
remain squarely focused on returning greenhouse gas concentrations to near pre-industrial levels through the
reduction of emissions.
Scientific opinion on climate change 225

The spatial and temporal fingerprint of warming can be traced to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in
the atmosphere, which are a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale deforestation and other human
activity.[40]

Earth sciences

American Geophysical Union


The American Geophysical Union (AGU) statement,[41] adopted by the society in 2003 and revised in 2007, affirms
that rising levels of greenhouse gases have caused and will continue to cause the global surface temperature to be
warmer:
The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate
system—including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain
glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons—are now changing at rates
and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of
greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century. Global average surface
temperatures increased on average by about 0.6°C over the period 1956–2006. As of 2006, eleven of the
previous twelve years were warmer than any others since 1850. The observed rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice is
expected to continue and lead to the disappearance of summertime ice within this century. Evidence from most
oceans and all continents except Antarctica shows warming attributable to human activities. Recent changes in
many physical and biological systems are linked with this regional climate change. A sustained research effort,
involving many AGU members and summarized in the 2007 assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, continues to improve our scientific understanding of the climate.

European Federation of Geologists


In 2008, the European Federation of Geologists[42] (EFG) issued the position paper Carbon Capture and geological
Storage :
The EFG recognizes the work of the IPCC and other organizations, and subscribes to the major findings that
climate change is happening, is predominantly caused by anthropogenic emissions of CO2, and poses a
significant threat to human civilization.
It is clear that major efforts are necessary to quickly and strongly reduce CO2 emissions. The EFG strongly
advocates renewable and sustainable energy production, including geothermal energy, as well as the need for
increasing energy efficiency.
CCS [Carbon Capture and geological Storage] should also be regarded as a bridging technology, facilitating
the move towards a carbon free economy.[43]

European Geosciences Union


In 2005, the Divisions of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) issued a
position statement in support of the joint science academies’ statement on global response to climate change. The
statement refers to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as "the main representative of the global
scientific community", and asserts that the IPCC
represents the state-of-the-art of climate science supported by the major science academies around the world
and by the vast majority of science researchers and investigators as documented by the peer-reviewed
scientific literature.[44]
Additionally, in 2008, the EGU issued a position statement on ocean acidification which states, "Ocean acidification
is already occurring today and will continue to intensify, closely tracking atmospheric CO2 increase. Given the
potential threat to marine ecosystems and its ensuing impact on human society and economy, especially as it acts in
Scientific opinion on climate change 226

conjunction with anthropogenic global warming, there is an urgent need for immediate action." The statement then
advocates for strategies "to limit future release of CO2 to the atmosphere and/or enhance removal of excess CO2
from the atmosphere."[45]

Geological Society of America


In 2006, the Geological Society of America adopted a position statement on global climate change. It amended this
position on April 20, 2010 with more explicit comments on need for CO2 reduction.
Decades of scientific research have shown that climate can change from both natural and anthropogenic
causes. The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of
Science (2005), the National Research Council (2006), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC, 2007) that global climate has warmed and that human activities (mainly greenhouse‐gas emissions)
account for most of the warming since the middle 1900s. If current trends continue, the projected increase in
global temperature by the end of the twentyfirst century will result in large impacts on humans and other
species. Addressing the challenges posed by climate change will require a combination of adaptation to the
changes that are likely to occur and global reductions of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic sources.[46]

Geological Society of Australia


In July 2009, the Geological Society of Australia issued the position statement Greenhouse Gas Emissions and
Climate Change:
Human activities have increasing impact on Earth’s environments. Of particular concern are the
well-documented loading of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere, which has been linked unequivocally to
burning of fossil fuels, and the corresponding increase in average global temperature. Risks associated with
these large-scale perturbations of the Earth’s fundamental life-support systems include rising sea level, harmful
shifts in the acid balance of the oceans and long-term changes in local and regional climate and extreme
weather events.
GSA therefore recommends…strong action be taken at all levels, including government, industry, and
individuals to substantially reduce the current levels of greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the likely social
and environmental effects of increasing atmospheric CO2.[47]

Geological Society of London


In November 2010, the Geological Society of London issued the position statement Climate change: evidence from
the geological record:
The last century has seen a rapidly growing global population and much more intensive use of resources,
leading to greatly increased emissions of gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, from the burning of fossil
fuels (oil, gas and coal), and from agriculture, cement production and deforestation. Evidence from the
geological record is consistent with the physics that shows that adding large amounts of carbon dioxide to the
atmosphere warms the world and may lead to: higher sea levels and flooding of low-lying coasts; greatly
changed patterns of rainfall; increased acidity of the oceans; and decreased oxygen levels in seawater.
There is now widespread concern that the Earth’s climate will warm further, not only because of the lingering
effects of the added carbon already in the system, but also because of further additions as human population
continues to grow. Life on Earth has survived large climate changes in the past, but extinctions and major
redistribution of species have been associated with many of them. When the human population was small and
nomadic, a rise in sea level of a few metres would have had very little effect on Homo sapiens. With the
current and growing global population, much of which is concentrated in coastal cities, such a rise in sea level
would have a drastic effect on our complex society, especially if the climate were to change as suddenly as it
has at times in the past. Equally, it seems likely that as warming continues some areas may experience less
Scientific opinion on climate change 227

precipitation leading to drought. With both rising seas and increasing drought, pressure for human migration
could result on a large scale.[48]

International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics


In July 2007, the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) adopted a resolution titled “The Urgency
of Addressing Climate Change”. In it, the IUGG concurs with the “comprehensive and widely accepted and endorsed
scientific assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and regional and national
bodies, which have firmly established, on the basis of scientific evidence, that human activities are the primary cause
of recent climate change.” They state further that the “continuing reliance on combustion of fossil fuels as the world’s
primary source of energy will lead to much higher atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses, which will, in
turn, cause significant increases in surface temperature, sea level, ocean acidification, and their related consequences
to the environment and society.”[49]

National Association of Geoscience Teachers


In July 2009, the National Association of Geoscience Teachers[50] (NAGT) adopted a position statement on climate
change in which they assert that "Earth's climate is changing [and] "that present warming trends are largely the result
of human activities":
NAGT strongly supports and will work to promote education in the science of climate change, the causes and
effects of current global warming, and the immediate need for policies and actions that reduce the emission of
greenhouse gases.[51]

Meteorology and oceanography

American Meteorological Society


The American Meteorological Society (AMS) statement adopted by their council in 2003 said:
There is now clear evidence that the mean annual temperature at the Earth's surface, averaged over the entire
globe, has been increasing in the past 200 years. There is also clear evidence that the abundance of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere has increased over the same period. In the past decade, significant progress has been
made toward a better understanding of the climate system and toward improved projections of long-term
climate change... Human activities have become a major source of environmental change. Of great urgency are
the climate consequences of the increasing atmospheric abundance of greenhouse gases... Because greenhouse
gases continue to increase, we are, in effect, conducting a global climate experiment, neither planned nor
controlled, the results of which may present unprecedented challenges to our wisdom and foresight as well as
have significant impacts on our natural and societal systems.[52]

Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society


The Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society has issued a Statement on Climate Change, wherein they
conclude:
Global climate change and global warming are real and observable ... It is highly likely that those human
activities that have increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been largely
responsible for the observed warming since 1950. The warming associated with increases in greenhouse gases
originating from human activity is called the enhanced greenhouse effect. The atmospheric concentration of
carbon dioxide has increased by more than 30% since the start of the industrial age and is higher now than at
any time in at least the past 650,000 years. This increase is a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale
deforestation and other human activity.”[53]
Scientific opinion on climate change 228

Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences


In November 2005, the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS) issued a letter to the
Prime Minister of Canada stating that
We concur with the climate science assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in
2001 ... We endorse the conclusions of the IPCC assessment that 'There is new and stronger evidence that most
of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities'. ... There is increasingly
unambiguous evidence of changing climate in Canada and around the world. There will be increasing impacts
of climate change on Canada’s natural ecosystems and on our socio-economic activities. Advances in climate
science since the 2001 IPCC Assessment have provided more evidence supporting the need for action and
development of a strategy for adaptation to projected changes.[54]

Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society


In November 2009, a letter to the Canadian Parliament by The Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
states:
Rigorous international research, including work carried out and supported by the Government of Canada,
reveals that greenhouse gases resulting from human activities contribute to the warming of the atmosphere and
the oceans and constitute a serious risk to the health and safety of our society, as well as having an impact on
all life.[55]

Royal Meteorological Society (UK)


In February 2007, after the release of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, the Royal Meteorological Society
issued an endorsement of the report. In addition to referring to the IPCC as “world’s best climate scientists”, they
stated that climate change is happening as “the result of emissions since industrialization and we have already set in
motion the next 50 years of global warming – what we do from now on will determine how worse it will get.”[56]

World Meteorological Organization


In its Statement at the Twelfth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on
Climate Change presented on November 15, 2006, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirms the
need to “prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” The WMO concurs that “scientific
assessments have increasingly reaffirmed that human activities are indeed changing the composition of the
atmosphere, in particular through the burning of fossil fuels for energy production and transportation.” The WMO
concurs that “the present atmospheric concentration of CO2 was never exceeded over the past 420,000 years;” and
that the IPCC “assessments provide the most authoritative, up-to-date scientific advice.” [57]

Paleoclimatology

American Quaternary Association


The American Quaternary Association (AMQUA) has stated
Few credible Scientists now doubt that humans have influenced the documented rise of global temperatures
since the Industrial Revolution,” citing “the growing body of evidence that warming of the atmosphere,
especially over the past 50 years, is directly impacted by human activity.[58]

International Union for Quaternary Research


The statement on climate change issued by the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) reiterates the
conclusions of the IPCC, and urges all nations to take prompt action in line with the UNFCCC principles.
Human activities are now causing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses - including carbon
dioxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, and nitrous oxide - to rise well above pre-industrial levels….Increases
Scientific opinion on climate change 229

in greenhouse gasses are causing temperatures to rise…The scientific understanding of climate change is now
sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action….Minimizing the amount of this carbon dioxide
reaching the atmosphere presents a huge challenge but must be a global priority.[59]

Biology and life sciences

American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians


The American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians[60] (AAWV) has issued a position statement regarding "climate
change, wildlife diseases, and wildlife health":
There is widespread scientific agreement that the world’s climate is changing and that the weight of evidence
demonstrates that anthropogenic factors have and will continue to contribute significantly to global warming
and climate change. It is anticipated that continuing changes to the climate will have serious negative impacts
on public, animal and ecosystem health due to extreme weather events, changing disease transmission
dynamics, emerging and re-emerging diseases, and alterations to habitat and ecological systems that are
essential to wildlife conservation. Furthermore, there is increasing recognition of the inter-relationships of
human, domestic animal, wildlife, and ecosystem health as illustrated by the fact the majority of recent
emerging diseases have a wildlife origin.[61]

American Institute of Biological Sciences


In October 2009, the leaders of 18 US scientific societies and organizations sent an open letter to the United States
Senate reaffirming the scientific consensus that climate change is occurring and is primarily caused by human
activities. The American Institute of Biological Sciences (AIBS) adopted this letter as their official position
statement:[62]
Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific
research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver.[63]
The letter goes on to warn of predicted impacts on the United States such as sea level rise and increases in extreme
weather events, water scarcity, heat waves, wildfires, and the disturbance of biological systems. It then advocates for
a dramatic reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases.[64]

American Society for Microbiology


In 2003, the American Society for Microbiology issued a public policy report in which they recommend “reducing
net anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere” and “minimizing anthropogenic disturbances of” atmospheric
gases:[65]
Carbon dioxide concentrations were relatively stable for the past 10,000 years but then began to increase
rapidly about 150 years ago…as a result of fossil fuel consumption and land use change.[66]
Of course, changes in atmospheric composition are but one component of global change, which also includes
disturbances in the physical and chemical conditions of the oceans and land surface. Although global change
has been a natural process throughout Earth’s history, humans are responsible for substantially accelerating
present-day changes. These changes may adversely affect human health and the biosphere on which we
depend.[67]
Outbreaks of a number of diseases, including Lyme disease, hantavirus infections, dengue fever, bubonic
plague, and cholera, have been linked to climate change.[68]
Scientific opinion on climate change 230

Australian Coral Reef Society


In 2006, the Australian Coral Reef Society [69] issued an official communique regarding the Great Barrier Reef and
the "world-wide decline in coral reefs through processes such as overfishing, runoff of nutrients from the land, coral
bleaching, global climate change, ocean acidification, pollution", etc.:
There is almost total consensus among experts that the earth’s climate is changing as a result of the build-up of
greenhouse gases. The IPCC (involving over 3,000 of the world’s experts) has come out with clear conclusions
as to the reality of this phenomenon. One does not have to look further than the collective academy of
scientists worldwide to see the string (of) statements on this worrying change to the earth’s atmosphere.
There is broad scientific consensus that coral reefs are heavily affected by the activities of man and there are
significant global influences that can make reefs more vulnerable such as global warming....It is highly likely
that coral bleaching has been exacerbated by global warming.[70]

Institute of Biology (UK)


The UK's Institute of Biology states “there is scientific agreement that the rapid global warming that has occurred in
recent years is mostly anthropogenic, ie due to human activity.” As a consequence of global warming, they warn that
a “rise in sea levels due to melting of ice caps is expected to occur. Rises in temperature will have complex and
frequently localised effects on weather, but an overall increase in extreme weather conditions and changes in
precipitation patterns are probable, resulting in flooding and drought. The spread of tropical diseases is also
expected.” Subsequently, the Institute of Biology advocates policies to reduce “greenhouse gas emissions, as we feel
that the consequences of climate change are likely to be severe.”[71]

Society of American Foresters


In 2008, the Society of American Foresters (SAF) issued two position statements pertaining to climate change in
which they cite the IPCC and the UNFCCC:
Forests are shaped by climate....Changes in temperature and precipitation regimes therefore have the potential
to dramatically affect forests nationwide. There is growing evidence that our climate is changing. The changes
in temperature have been associated with increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and
other GHGs in the atmosphere.[72]
Forests play a significant role in offsetting CO2 emissions, the primary anthropogenic GHG.[73]

The Wildlife Society (international)


The Wildlife Society has issued a position statement titled Global Climate Change and Wildlife:[74]
Scientists throughout the world have concluded that climate research conducted in the past two decades
definitively shows that rapid worldwide climate change occurred in the 20th century, and will likely continue
to occur for decades to come. Although climates have varied dramatically since the earth was formed, few
scientists question the role of humans in exacerbating recent climate change through the emission of
greenhouse gases. The critical issue is no longer “if” climate change is occurring, but rather how to address its
effects on wildlife and wildlife habitats.
The statement goes on to assert that “evidence is accumulating that wildlife and wildlife habitats have been and will
continue to be significantly affected by ongoing large-scale rapid climate change.”
The statement concludes with a call for “reduction in anthropogenic (human-caused) sources of carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gas emissions contributing to global climate change and the conservation of CO2- consuming
photosynthesizers (i.e., plants).”
Scientific opinion on climate change 231

Human health

American Academy of Pediatrics


In 2007, the American Academy of Pediatrics issued the policy statement Global Climate Change and Children's
Health:
There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human
activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this
warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially
irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of
the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health
effects to children.
Anticipated direct health consequences of climate change include injury and death from extreme weather
events and natural disasters, increases in climate-sensitive infectious diseases, increases in air
pollution–related illness, and more heat-related, potentially fatal, illness. Within all of these categories,
children have increased vulnerability compared with other groups.[75]

American College of Preventive Medicine


In 2006, the American College of Preventive Medicine issued a policy statement on “Abrupt Climate Change and
Public Health Implications”:
The American College of Preventive Medicine (ACPM) accept the position that global warming and climate
change is occurring, that there is potential for abrupt climate change, and that human practices that increase
greenhouse gases exacerbate the problem, and that the public health consequences may be severe.[76]

American Medical Association


In 2008, the American Medical Association issued a policy statement on global climate change declaring that they:
Support the findings of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, which states that the
Earth is undergoing adverse global climate change and that these changes will negatively affect public health.
Support educating the medical community on the potential adverse public health effects of global climate
change, including topics such as population displacement, flooding, infectious and vector-borne diseases, and
healthy water supplies.[77]

American Public Health Association


In 2007, the American Public Health Association issued a policy statement titled ‘’Addressing the Urgent Threat of
Global Climate Change to Public Health and the Environment’’:
The long-term threat of global climate change to global health is extremely serious and the fourth IPCC report
and other scientific literature demonstrate convincingly that anthropogenic GHG emissions are primarily
responsible for this threat….US policy makers should immediately take necessary steps to reduce US
emissions of GHGs, including carbon dioxide, to avert dangerous climate change.[78]
Scientific opinion on climate change 232

Australian Medical Association


In 2004, the Australian Medical Association issued the position statement Climate Change and Human Health in
which they recommend policies "to mitigate the possible consequential health effects of climate change through
improved energy efficiency, clean energy production and other emission reduction steps."[79]
This statement was revised again in 2008:
The world’s climate – our life-support system – is being altered in ways that are likely to pose significant
direct and indirect challenges to health. While ‘climate change’ can be due to natural forces or human activity,
there is now substantial evidence to indicate that human activity – and specifically increased greenhouse gas
(GHGs) emissions – is a key factor in the pace and extent of global temperature increases.
Health impacts of climate change include the direct impacts of extreme events such as storms, floods,
heatwaves and fires and the indirect effects of longer-term changes, such as drought, changes to the food and
water supply, resource conflicts and population shifts.
Increases in average temperatures mean that alterations in the geographic range and seasonality of certain
infections and diseases (including vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, Ross River virus and
food-borne infections such as Salmonellosis) may be among the first detectable impacts of climate change on
human health.
Human health is ultimately dependent on the health of the planet and its ecosystem. The AMA believes that
measures which mitigate climate change will also benefit public health. Reducing GHGs should therefore be
seen as a public health priority.[80]

World Federation of Public Health Associations


In 2001, the World Federation of Public Health Associations[81] issued a policy resolution on global climate change:
Noting the conclusions of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other
climatologists that anthropogenic greenhouse gases, which contribute to global climate change, have
substantially increased in atmospheric concentration beyond natural processes and have increased by 28
percent since the industrial revolution….Realizing that subsequent health effects from such perturbations in
the climate system would likely include an increase in: heat-related mortality and morbidity; vector-borne
infectious diseases,… water-borne diseases…(and) malnutrition from threatened agriculture….the World
Federation of Public Health Associations…recommends precautionary primary preventive measures to avert
climate change, including reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and preservation of greenhouse gas sinks
through appropriate energy and land use policies, in view of the scale of potential health impacts....[82]

World Health Organization


In 2008, the United Nations' World Health Organization issued their report Protecting health from climate change:
There is now widespread agreement that the earth is warming, due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by
human activity. It is also clear that current trends in energy use, development, and population growth will lead
to continuing – and more severe – climate change.
The changing climate will inevitably affect the basic requirements for maintaining health: clean air and water,
sufficient food and adequate shelter. Each year, about 800,000 people die from causes attributable to urban air
pollution, 1.8 million from diarrhoea resulting from lack of access to clean water supply, sanitation, and poor
hygiene, 3.5 million from malnutrition and approximately 60,000 in natural disasters. A warmer and more
variable climate threatens to lead to higher levels of some air pollutants, increase transmission of diseases
through unclean water and through contaminated food, to compromise agricultural production in some of the
least developed countries, and increase the hazards of extreme weather.[83]
Scientific opinion on climate change 233

Miscellaneous

American Astronomical Society


The American Astronomical Society has endorsed the AGU statement:[84]
In endorsing the "Human Impacts on Climate" statement [issued by the American Geophysical Union], the
AAS recognizes the collective expertise of the AGU in scientific subfields central to assessing and
understanding global change, and acknowledges the strength of agreement among our AGU colleagues that the
global climate is changing and human activities are contributing to that change.

American Statistical Association


On November 30, 2007, the American Statistical Association Board of Directors adopted a statement on climate
change:
The ASA endorses the IPCC conclusions.... Over the course of four assessment reports, a small number of
statisticians have served as authors or reviewers. Although this involvement is encouraging, it does not
represent the full range of statistical expertise available. ASA recommends that more statisticians should
become part of the IPCC process. Such participation would be mutually beneficial to the assessment of climate
change and its impacts and also to the statistical community.[85]

Engineers Australia (The Institution of Engineers Australia)


"Engineers Australia believes that Australia must act swiftly and proactively in line with global expectations to
address climate change as an economic, social and environmental risk... We believe that addressing the costs
of atmospheric emissions will lead to increasing our competitive advantage by minimising risks and creating
new economic opportunities. Engineers Australia believes the Australian Government should ratify the Kyoto
Protocol."[86]

International Association for Great Lakes Research


In February 2009, the International Association for Great Lakes Research[87] (IAGLR) issued a Fact Sheet on
climate change:
While the Earth’s climate has changed many times during the planet’s history because of natural factors,
including volcanic eruptions and changes in the Earth’s orbit, never before have we observed the present rapid
rise in temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2).
Human activities resulting from the industrial revolution have changed the chemical composition of the
atmosphere....Deforestation is now the second largest contributor to global warming, after the burning of fossil
fuels. These human activities have significantly increased the concentration of “greenhouse gases” in the
atmosphere.
As the Earth’s climate warms, we are seeing many changes: stronger, more destructive hurricanes; heavier
rainfall; more disastrous flooding; more areas of the world experiencing severe drought; and more heat
waves.[88]
Scientific opinion on climate change 234

Institute of Professional Engineers New Zealand


In October 2001, the Institute of Professional Engineers New Zealand[89] (IPENZ) published an Informatory Note
entitled "Climate Change and the greenhouse effect":
Human activities have increased the concentration of these atmospheric greenhouse gases, and although the
changes are relatively small, the equilibrium maintained by the atmosphere is delicate, and so the effect of
these changes is significant. The world’s most important greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, a by-product of the
burning of fossil fuels. Since the time of the Industrial Revolution about 200 years ago, the concentration of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from about 280 parts per million to 370 parts per million, an
increase of around 30%.
On the basis of available data, climate scientists are now projecting an average global temperature rise over
this century of 2.0 to 4.5°C. This compared with 0.6°C over the previous century – about a 500% increase...
This could lead to changing, and for all emissions scenarios more unpredictable, weather patterns around the
world, less frost days, more extreme events (droughts and storm or flood disasters), and warmer sea
temperatures and melting glaciers causing sea levels to rise.
... Professional engineers commonly deal with risk, and frequently have to make judgments based on
incomplete data. The available evidence suggests very strongly that human activities have already begun to
make significant changes to the earth’s climate, and that the longterm risk of delaying action is greater than the
cost of avoiding/minimising the risk.[90]

Non-committal statements

American Association of Petroleum Geologists


As of June 2007, the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Position Statement on climate change
stated:
the AAPG membership is divided on the degree of influence that anthropogenic CO2 has on recent and
potential global temperature increases ... Certain climate simulation models predict that the warming trend will
continue, as reported through NAS, AGU, AAAS and AMS. AAPG respects these scientific opinions but
wants to add that the current climate warming projections could fall within well-documented natural variations
in past climate and observed temperature data. These data do not necessarily support the maximum case
scenarios forecast in some models.[91]
Prior to the adoption of this statement, the AAPG was the only major scientific organization that rejected the finding
of significant human influence on recent climate, according to a statement by the Council of the American
Quaternary Association.[2] Explaining the plan for a revision, AAPG president Lee Billingsly wrote in March 2007:
Members have threatened to not renew their memberships... if AAPG does not alter its position on global
climate change.... And I have been told of members who already have resigned in previous years because of
our current global climate change position.... The current policy statement is not supported by a significant
number of our members and prospective members.[92]
AAPG President John Lorenz announced the sunsetting of AAPG’s Global Climate Change Committee in January
2010. The AAPG Executive Committee determined:
Climate change is peripheral at best to our science…. AAPG does not have credibility in that field…….and as
a group we have no particular knowledge of global atmospheric geophysics.[93]
Scientific opinion on climate change 235

American Association of State Climatologists


The Association has no current statement. The previous statement, discussed below, became inoperative in 2008.[94]
The 2001 statement from the American Association of State Climatologists noted the difficulties with predicting
impacts due to climate change, while acknowledging that human activities are having an effect on climate:
Climate prediction is difficult because it involves complex, nonlinear interactions among all components of the
earth’s environmental system.... The AASC recognizes that human activities have an influence on the climate
system. Such activities, however, are not limited to greenhouse gas forcing and include changing land use and
sulfate emissions, which further complicates the issue of climate prediction. Furthermore, climate predictions
have not demonstrated skill in projecting future variability and changes in such important climate conditions as
growing season, drought, flood-producing rainfall, heat waves, tropical cyclones and winter storms. These are
the type of events that have a more significant impact on society than annual average global temperature
trends. Policy responses to climate variability and change should be flexible and sensible – The difficulty of
prediction and the impossibility of verification of predictions decades into the future are important factors that
allow for competing views of the long-term climate future. Therefore, the AASC recommends that policies
related to long-term climate not be based on particular predictions, but instead should focus on policy
alternatives that make sense for a wide range of plausible climatic conditions regardless of future climate...
Finally, ongoing political debate about global energy policy should not stand in the way of common sense
action to reduce societal and environmental vulnerabilities to climate variability and change. Considerable
potential exists to improve policies related to climate.[95]

American Geological Institute


In 1999, the American Geological Institute (AGI) issued the position statement ‘’Global Climate Change’’:
The American Geological Institute (AGI) strongly supports education concerning the scientific evidence of
past climate change, the potential for future climate change due to the current building of carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases, and the policy options available.
Understanding the interactions between the solid Earth, the oceans, the biosphere, and the atmosphere both in
the present and over time is critical for accurately analyzing and predicting global climate change due to
natural processes and possible human influences.[96]

American Institute of Professional Geologists


In 2009, the American Institute of Professional Geologists[97] (AIPG) sent a statement to President Barack Obama
and other US government officials:
The geological professionals in AIPG recognize that climate change is occurring and has the potential to yield
catastrophic impacts if humanity is not prepared to address those impacts. It is also recognized that climate
change will occur regardless of the cause. The sooner a defensible scientific understanding can be developed,
the better equipped humanity will be to develop economically viable and technically effective methods to
support the needs of society.[98]
Concerned that the original statement issued in March 2009 was too ambiguous, AIPG’s National Executive
Committee approved a revised position statement issued in January 2010:
The geological professionals in AIPG recognize that climate change is occurring regardless of cause. AIPG
supports continued research into all forces driving climate change.[99]
In August 2009, the Ohio Section of AIPG submitted a position statement to Senators Brown and Voinovich
opposing H.R. 2454, the Markey-Waxman climate bill. The statement professed that “there is no scientific evidence
supporting…. the premise that human production of CO2 gas is responsible for ‘global warming’….” The statement
went on to challenge the findings of the IPCC and made numerous references to articles published by the Heartland
Scientific opinion on climate change 236

Institute.[100]
In March 2010, AIPG’s Executive Director issued a statement regarding polarization of opinions on climate change
within the membership and announced that the AIPG Executive had made a decision to cease publication of articles
and opinion pieces concerning climate change in AIPG’s news journal, The Professional Geologist.[101] The
Executive Director noted that “the question of anthropogenicity of climate change is contentious.”[102]

Canadian Federation of Earth Sciences


The science of global climate change is still evolving and our understanding of this vital Earth system is not as
developed as is the case for other Earth systems such as plate tectonics. What is known with certainty is that
regardless of the causes, our global climate will continue to change for the foreseeable future... The level of
CO2 in our atmosphere is now greater than at any time in the past 500,000 years; there will be consequences
for our global climate and natural systems as a result.[103]

Statements by dissenting organizations


Since 2007, when the American Association of Petroleum Geologists released a revised statement,[104] no scientific
body of national or international standing rejects the findings of human-induced effects on global warming.[2] [3]
Statements by individual scientists opposing the mainstream assessment of global warming do include opinions that
the earth has not warmed, or that warming is attributable to causes other than increasing greenhouse gases.

Surveys of scientists and scientific literature


Various surveys have been conducted to evaluate scientific opinion on global warming.

Anderegg, Prall, Harold, and Schneider, 2010


A 2010 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States reviewed publication and
citation data for 1,372 climate researchers and resulted in the following two conclusions:
(i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC
(Anthropogenic Climate Change) outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii)
the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are
substantially below that of the convinced researchers.[105]

Doran and Kendall Zimmerman, 2009


A poll performed by Peter Doran and Maggie Kendall Zimmerman at Earth and Environmental Sciences [106],
University of Illinois at Chicago received replies from 3,146 of the 10,257 polled Earth scientists. Results were
analyzed globally and by specialization. 76 out of 79 climatologists who "listed climate science as their area of
expertise and who also have published more than 50% of their recent peer-reviewed papers on the subject of climate
change" believe that mean global temperatures have risen compared to pre-1800s levels, and 75 out of 77 believe
that human activity is a significant factor in changing mean global temperatures. Among all respondents, 90% agreed
that temperatures have risen compared to pre-1800 levels, and 82% agreed that humans significantly influence the
global temperature. Economic geologists and meteorologists were among the biggest doubters, with only 47 percent
and 64 percent, respectively, believing in significant human involvement. A summary from the survey states that:
It seems that the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely
nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes.[107]
Scientific opinion on climate change 237

Bray and von Storch, 2008


Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch conducted a survey in August 2008 of 2058 climate scientists from 34 different
countries.[108] A web link with a unique identifier was given to each respondent to eliminate multiple responses. A
total of 373 responses were received giving an overall response rate of 18.2%. No paper on climate change
consensus based on this survey has been published yet (February 2010), but one on another subject has been
published based on the survey.[109]
The survey was composed of 76 questions split into a number of sections. There were sections on the demographics
of the respondents, their assessment of the state of climate science, how good the science is, climate change impacts,
adaptation and mitigation, their opinion of the IPCC, and how well climate science was being communicated to the
public. Most of the answers were on a scale from 1 to 7 from 'not at all' to 'very much'.
In the section on climate change impacts questions 20, 21 were relevant to scientific opinion on climate change.
Question 20 "How convinced are you that climate change, whether natural or anthropogenic, is occurring now?" got
67.1% very much agree, 26.7% to some large extent (5–6), 6.2% said to some small extent (2–4), none said not at
all. Question 21 "How convinced are you that most of recent or near future climate change is, or will be, a result of
anthropogenic causes?" received 34.6% very much agree, 48.9% agreeing to a large extent (5–6), 15.1% to a small
extent (2–4), and 1.35% not agreeing at all.

STATS, 2007
In 2007, Harris Interactive surveyed 489 randomly selected members of either the American Meteorological Society
or the American Geophysical Union for the Statistical Assessment Service (STATS) at George Mason University.
The survey found 97% agreed that global temperatures have increased during the past 100 years; 84% say they
personally believe human-induced warming is occurring, and 74% agree that “currently available scientific evidence”
substantiates its occurrence. Only 5% believe that that human activity does not contribute to greenhouse warming;
and 84% believe global climate change poses a moderate to very great danger.[110] [111]

Oreskes, 2004
A 2004 article by geologist and historian of science Naomi Oreskes summarized a study of the scientific literature on
climate change.[112] The essay concluded that there is a scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate
change. The author analyzed 928 abstracts of papers from refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, listed
with the keywords "global climate change". Oreskes divided the abstracts into six categories: explicit endorsement of
the consensus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigation proposals, methods, paleoclimate analysis, and rejection of
the consensus position. 75% of the abstracts were placed in the first three categories, thus either explicitly or
implicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, thus taking no position on current
anthropogenic climate change; none of the abstracts disagreed with the consensus position, which the author found to
be "remarkable". According to the report, "authors evaluating impacts, developing methods, or studying
paleoclimatic change might believe that current climate change is natural. However, none of these papers argued that
point."

Bray and von Storch, 2003


Bray and von Storch conducted a survey in 2003 of the perspectives of climate scientists on global climate
change.[113] The survey received 530 responses from 27 different countries. The 2003 survey has been strongly
criticized on the grounds that it was performed on the web with no means to verify that the respondents were climate
scientists or to prevent multiple submissions. The survey required entry of a username and password, but the
username and password were circulated to a climate skeptics mailing list and elsewhere on the internet.[114] Bray and
von Storch defended their results.[115] and accused climate change skeptics of interpreting the results with bias.
Bray's submission to Science on December 22, 2004 was rejected.
Scientific opinion on climate change 238

One of the questions asked in the survey was "To what extent do you agree or disagree that climate change is mostly
the result of anthropogenic causes?", with a value of 1 indicating strongly agree and a value of 7 indicating strongly
disagree. The results showed a mean of 3.62, with 50 responses (9.4%) indicating "strongly agree" and 54 responses
(9.7%) indicating "strongly disagree". The same survey indicates a 72% to 20% endorsement of the IPCC reports as
accurate, and a 15% to 80% rejection of the thesis that "there is enough uncertainty about the phenomenon of global
warming that there is no need for immediate policy decisions."

Survey of U.S. state climatologists, 1997


In 1997, the conservative think tank Citizens for a Sound Economy surveyed America's 48 state climatologists on
questions related to climate change.[116] Of the 36 respondents, 44% considered global warming to be a largely
natural phenomenon, compared to 17% who considered warming to be largely man-made. The survey further found
that 58% disagreed or somewhat disagreed with then-President Clinton's assertion that "the overwhelming balance of
evidence and scientific opinion is that it is no longer a theory, but now fact, that global warming is for real". 89%
agreed that "current science is unable to isolate and measure variations in global temperatures caused ONLY by
man-made factors," and 61% said that historical data do not indicate "that fluctuations in global temperatures are
attributable to human influences such as burning fossil fuels."
60% of the respondents said that reducing man-made CO2 emissions in the US by 15% below 1990 levels would not
prevent global temperatures from rising, and 86% said that reducing emissions in the US to 1990 levels would not
prevent rising temperatures. 39% agreed and 33% disagreed that "evidence exists to suggest that the earth is headed
for another glacial period,"[117] though the time scale for the next glacial period was not specified.

Bray and von Storch, 1996


In 1996, Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch undertook a survey of climate scientists on attitudes towards global
warming and related matters. The results were subsequently published in the Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society.[118] The paper addressed the views of climate scientists, with a response rate of 40% from a
mail survey questionnaire to 1000 scientists in Germany, the USA and Canada. Most of the scientists believed that
global warming was occurring and appropriate policy action should be taken, but there was wide disagreement about
the likely effects on society and almost all agreed that the predictive ability of currently existing models was limited.
The abstract says:
The international consensus was, however, apparent regarding the utility of the knowledge to date: climate
science has provided enough knowledge so that the initiation of abatement measures is warranted. However,
consensus also existed regarding the current inability to explicitly specify detrimental effects that might result
from climate change. This incompatibility between the state of knowledge and the calls for action suggests
that, to some degree at least, scientific advice is a product of both scientific knowledge and normative
judgment, suggesting a socioscientific construction of the climate change issue.
The survey was extensive, and asked numerous questions on many aspects of climate science, model formulation,
and utility, and science/public/policy interactions. To pick out some of the more vital topics, from the body of the
paper:
The resulting questionnaire, consisting of 74 questions, was pre-tested in a German institution and after
revisions, distributed to a total of 1,000 scientists in North America and Germany... The number of completed
returns was as follows: USA 149, Canada 35, and Germany 228, a response rate of approximately 40%....
...With a value of 1 indicating the highest level of belief that predictions are possible and a value of 7
expressing the least faith in the predictive capabilities of the current state of climate science knowledge, the
mean of the entire sample of 4.6 for the ability to make reasonable predictions of inter-annual variability tends
to indicate that scientists feel that reasonable prediction is not yet a possibility... mean of 4.8 for reasonable
predictions of 10 years... mean of 5.2 for periods of 100 years...
Scientific opinion on climate change 239

...a response of a value of 1 indicates a strong level of agreement with the statement of certainty that global
warming is already underway or will occur without modification to human behavior... the mean response for
the entire sample was 3.3 indicating a slight tendency towards the position that global warming has indeed
been detected and is underway.... Regarding global warming as being a possible future event, there is a higher
expression of confidence as indicated by the mean of 2.6.

Older surveys of scientists


• Global Environmental Change Report, 1990: GECR climate survey shows strong agreement on action, less so on
warming. Global Environmental Change Report 2, No. 9, pp. 1–3
• Stewart, T. R.,[119] Mumpower, J. L., and Reagan-Cirincione, P. (1992). Scientists' opinions about global climate
change: Summary of the results of a survey. NAEP (National Association of Environmental Professionals)
Newsletter, 17(2), 6-7.
• In 1991, the Center for Science, Technology, and Media commissioned a Gallup poll of 400 members of the
American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society along with an analysis of reporting on
global warming by the Center for Media and Public Affairs, a report on which was issued in 1992.[120] Accounts
of the results of that survey differ in their interpretation and even in the basic statistical percentages:
• Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting states that the report said that 67% of the scientists said that
human-induced global warming was occurring, with 11% disagreeing and the rest undecided.[121]
• George Will reported "53 percent do not believe warming has occurred, and another 30 percent are uncertain."
(Washington Post, September 3, 1992). In a correction Gallup stated: "Most scientists involved in research in
this area believe that human-induced global warming is occurring now."[122]
• A 1993 publication by the Heartland Institute reports: "A Gallup poll conducted on February 13, 1992 of
members of the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society-the two professional
societies whose members are most likely to be involved in climate research-found that 18 percent thought
some global warming had occurred, 33 percent said insufficient information existed to tell, and 49 percent
believed no warming had taken place."[123]

Scientific consensus
A question which frequently arises in popular discussion of climate change is whether there is a scientific
consensus.[124] Several scientific organizations have explicitly used the term "consensus" in their statements:
• American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2006: "The conclusions in this statement reflect the
scientific consensus represented by, for example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the Joint
National Academies' statement."[32]
• US National Academy of Sciences: "In the judgment of most climate scientists, Earth’s warming in recent decades
has been caused primarily by human activities that have increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere. ... On climate change, [the National Academies’ reports] have assessed consensus findings on the
science..."[125]
• Joint Science Academies' statement, 2005: "We recognise the international scientific consensus of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)."[126]
• Joint Science Academies' statement, 2001: "The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
represents the consensus of the international scientific community on climate change science. We recognise IPCC
as the world’s most reliable source of information on climate change and its causes, and we endorse its method of
achieving this consensus."[13]
• American Meteorological Society, 2003: "The nature of science is such that there is rarely total agreement among
scientists. Individual scientific statements and papers—the validity of some of which has yet to be assessed
adequately—can be exploited in the policy debate and can leave the impression that the scientific community is
Scientific opinion on climate change 240

sharply divided on issues where there is, in reality, a strong scientific consensus.... IPCC assessment reports are
prepared at approximately five-year intervals by a large international group of experts who represent the broad
range of expertise and perspectives relevant to the issues. The reports strive to reflect a consensus evaluation of
the results of the full body of peer-reviewed research.... They provide an analysis of what is known and not
known, the degree of consensus, and some indication of the degree of confidence that can be placed on the
various statements and conclusions."[127]
• Network of African Science Academies: “A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global
scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil
fuels is largely responsible for driving this change.”[24]
• International Union for Quaternary Research, 2008: "INQUA recognizes the international scientific consensus of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)."[128]
• Australian Coral Reef Society,[129] 2006: "There is almost total consensus among experts that the earth’s climate
is changing as a result of the build-up of greenhouse gases.... There is broad scientific consensus that coral reefs
are heavily affected by the activities of man and there are significant global influences that can make reefs more
vulnerable such as global warming...."[130]

References
[1] Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ index. htm), IPCC, January
2001.
[2] Julie Brigham-Grette et al. (September 2006). "Petroleum Geologists‘ Award to Novelist Crichton Is Inappropriate" (http:/ / www. agu. org/
fora/ eos/ pdfs/ 2006EO360008. pdf) (PDF). Eos 87 (36). . Retrieved 2007-01-23. "The AAPG stands alone among scientific societies in its
denial of human-induced effects on global warming.".
[3] Oreskes, Naomi (2007). "The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: How Do We Know We’re Not Wrong?". In DiMento, Joseph F. C.;
Doughman, Pamela M.. Climate Change: What It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren. The MIT Press. p. 68.
ISBN 9780262541930.
[4] Ogden, Aynslie and Cohen, Stewart (2002) (PDF). Integration and Synthesis: Assessing Climate Change Impacts in Northern Canada (http:/ /
www. taiga. net/ nce/ initiatives/ publications/ occasional_paper_02. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-04-12.
[5] "Warming 'very likely' human-made" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 6321351. stm). BBC News (BBC). 2007-02-01. .
Retrieved 2007-02-01.
[6] Rosenthal, Elisabeth; Revkin, Andrew C. (2007-02-03). "Science Panel Calls Global Warming ‘Unequivocal’" (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/
2007/ 02/ 03/ science/ earth/ 03climate. html?ex=1328158800& en=61f42312221df544& ei=5090& partner=rssuserland& emc=rss<br / >).
New York Times. . Retrieved 2010-08-28. "the leading international network of climate scientists has concluded for the first time that global
warming is 'unequivocal' and that human activity is the main driver, 'very likely' causing most of the rise in temperatures since 1950"
[7] Stevens, William K. (2007-02-06). "On the Climate Change Beat, Doubt Gives Way to Certainty" (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2007/ 02/ 06/
science/ earth/ 06clim. html?pagewanted=1& ei=5088& en=53862c0cdf77d1c0& ex=1328418000& partner=rssnyt& emc=rss). New York
Times. . Retrieved 2007-02-06. "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the likelihood was 90 percent to 99 percent that
emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, spewed from tailpipes and smokestacks, were the dominant cause of the
observed warming of the last 50 years. In the panel’s parlance, this level of certainty is labeled “very likely.” Only rarely does scientific
odds-making provide a more definite answer than that, at least in this branch of science, and it describes the endpoint, so far, of a progression."
[8] U.N. Report: Global Warming Man-Made, Basically Unstoppable (http:/ / www. foxnews. com/ story/ 0,2933,249659,00. html) Fox News,
February 2007
[9] Downloads.globalchange.gov (http:/ / downloads. globalchange. gov/ usimpacts/ pdfs/ climate-impacts-report. pdf)
[10] "Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment New Scientific Consensus: Arctic Is Warming Rapidly" (http:/ / www.
grida. no/ polar/ news/ 2427. aspx). UNEP/GRID-Arendal. 2004-11-08. . Retrieved 2010-01-20.
[11] ACIA Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (http:/ / amap. no/ acia/ )
[12] The Science of Climate Change (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ summary/ 292/ 5520/ 1261), Science journal editorial
[13] The Science of Climate Change (http:/ / royalsociety. org/ Report_WF. aspx?pageid=10028), The Royal Society
[14] Joint science academies’ statement: Global response to climate change (http:/ / www. nationalacademies. org/ onpi/ 06072005. pdf), 2005
[15] 2007 Joint Science Academies' Statement (http:/ / www. pik-potsdam. de/ aktuelles/ nachrichten/ dateien/ G8_Academies Declaration. pdf)
[16] 2008 Joint Science Academies’ Statement (http:/ / www. nationalacademies. org/ includes/ climatechangestatement. pdf)
[17] 2009 Joint Science Academies’ Statement (http:/ / www. nationalacademies. org/ includes/ G8+ 5energy-climate09. pdf)
[18] New York Times Panel Urges Global Shift on Sources of Energy (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2007/ 10/ 23/ business/ worldbusiness/
23energy. html?_r=1& oref=slogin)
[19] About IAC (http:/ / www. interacademycouncil. net/ CMS/ 3239. aspx)
Scientific opinion on climate change 241

[20] IAC report Lighting the Way: Toward a Sustainable Energy Future Forward (http:/ / www. interacademycouncil. net/ CMS/ Reports/ 11840/
11842. aspx)
[21] IAC report Lighting the Way: Toward a Sustainable Energy Future 5.2 Conclusion (http:/ / www. interacademycouncil. net/ CMS/ Reports/
11840/ 11971/ 11979. aspx)
[22] European Academy of Sciences and Arts Let's Be Honest (http:/ / www. euro-acad. eu/ downloads/ memorandas/
lets_be_honest_-_festplenum_03. 03. 07_-_final2. pdf)
[23] CAETS Statement on Environment and Sustainable Growth (http:/ / www. caets. org/ nae/ naecaets. nsf/ (weblinks)/
WSAN-78QL9A?OpenDocument)
[24] "Joint statement by the Network of African Science Academies (NASAC) to the G8 on sustainability, energy efficiency and climate change"
(http:/ / www. interacademies. net/ File. aspx?id=4825) (PDF). Network of African Science Academies. 2007. . Retrieved 2008-03-29.
[25] Wratt, David; Renwick, James (2008-07-10). "Climate change statement from the Royal Society of New Zealand" (http:/ / www.
royalsociety. org. nz/ Site/ news/ media_releases/ 2008/ clim0708. aspx). The Royal Society of New Zealand. . Retrieved 2010-01-20.
[26] Gray, Louise (May 29, 2010). "Royal Society to publish guide on climate change to counter claims of 'exaggeration'" (http:/ / www.
telegraph. co. uk/ earth/ earthnews/ 7778917/ Royal-Society-to-publish-guide-on-climate-change-to-counter-claims-of-exaggeration. html).
The Daily Telegraph (London). .
[27] "New guide to science of climate change" (http:/ / royalsociety. org/ Climate-Change/ ). The Royal Society. . Retrieved 9 June 2010.
[28] Harrabin, Roger (27 May 2010). "Society to review climate message" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science_and_environment/ 10178124.
stm). BBC News. . Retrieved 9 June 2010.
[29] Gardner, Dan (8 June 2010). "Some excitable climate-change deniers just don’t understand what science is" (http:/ / www. montrealgazette.
com/ news/ Some+ excitable+ climate+ change+ deniersjust+ understand+ what+ science/ 3128015/ story. html). Montreal Gazette. .
Retrieved 9 June 2010.
[30] "Stanowisko Zgromadzenia Ogólnego PAN z dnia 13 grudnia 2007 r." (http:/ / www. aktualnosci. pan. pl/ images/ stories/ pliki/
stanowiska_opinie/ 2008/ stanowisko_pan_131207. pdf) (in Polish). Polish Academy of Sciences. . Retrieved 2009-06-16. Note: As of 16 June
2009, PAS has not issued this statement in English, all citations have been translated from Polish.
[31] Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (http:/ / books. nap. edu/ html/ climatechange/ )
[32] AAAS Board Statement on Climate Change (http:/ / www. aaas. org/ news/ press_room/ climate_change/ mtg_200702/
aaas_climate_statement. pdf) www.aaas.org December 2006
[33] American Chemical Society Global Climte Change (http:/ / portal. acs. org/ portal/ acs/ corg/ content?_nfpb=true&
_pageLabel=PP_SUPERARTICLE& node_id=1907& use_sec=false& sec_url_var=region1&
__uuid=0cbd57b5-5766-456d-800b-680b88c1c8bf)
[34] Statement supporting AGU statement on human-induced climate change (http:/ / www. aip. org/ fyi/ 2004/ 042. html), American Institute of
Physics, 2003
[35] American Physical Society Climate Change Policy Statement (http:/ / www. aps. org/ policy/ statements/ 07_1. cfm), 2007
[36] AIP.org (http:/ / www. aip. org. au/ about. php)
[37] AIP science policy document. (http:/ / www. aip. org. au/ scipolicy/ Science Policy. pdf)
[38] EPS Position Paper Energy for the future: The Nuclear Option (http:/ / google. com/ search?q=cache:rXA5d27-secJ:academiaeuropaea. ift.
uib. no/ physics/ EPS-2. pdf+ European+ Physical+ Society+ position+ nuclear+ option+ papers& cd=4& hl=en& ct=clnk& gl=us&
client=safari)
[39] European Science Foundation Position Paper Impacts of Climate Change on the European Marine and Coastal Environment - Ecosystems
Approach pp. 7-10 (http:/ / www. esf. org/ publications/ position-papers. html)
[40] FASTS Statement on Climate Change (http:/ / www. fasts. org/ images/ policy-discussion/ statement-climate-change. pdf)
[41] AGU Position Statement - Human Impacts on Climate (http:/ / www. agu. org/ sci_pol/ positions/ climate_change2008. shtml)
[42] Eurogeologists.de (http:/ / www. eurogeologists. de/ index. php?section=home)
[43] EFG Carbon Capture and geological Storage (http:/ / www. eurogeologists. de/ images/ content/ panels_of_experts/
co2_geological_storage/ CCS_position_paper. pdf)
[44] EGU Divisions of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences position statement (http:/ / www. egu. eu/ statements/
position-statement-of-the-divisions-of-atmospheric-and-climate-sciences-7-july-2005. html)
[45] EGU statement on ocean acidification (http:/ / www. egu. eu/ statements/ egu-position-statement-on-ocean-acidification. html)
[46] Global Climate Change (http:/ / www. geosociety. org/ positions/ position10. htm) Position Statement
[47] GSA Position Statement Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change (http:/ / www. gsa. org. au/ pdfdocuments/ management/
GreenhouseGasEmissions& ClimateChange_GSAPositionStatement_July2009. pdf)
[48] Geological Society of London, Climate change: evidence from the geological record (http:/ / www. geolsoc. org. uk/ gsl/ views/
policy_statements/ page7426. html)
[49] IUGG Resolution 6 (http:/ / www. iugg. org/ resolutions/ perugia07. pdf)
[50] NAGT.org (http:/ / www. nagt. org/ index. html)
[51] NAGT Position Statement Teaching Climate Change (http:/ / nagt. org/ nagt/ organization/ ps-climate. html)
[52] Climate Change Research: Issues for the Atmospheric and Related Sciences (http:/ / www. ametsoc. org/ policy/
climatechangeresearch_2003. html) from www.ametsoc.org
[53] AMOS Statement on Climate Change (http:/ / www. amos. org. au/ publications/ cid/ 3/ t/ publications)
Scientific opinion on climate change 242

[54] CFCAS Letter to PM, November 25, 2005 (http:/ / www. cfcas. org/ LettertoPM19apr06e. pdf)
[55] (http:/ / www. cmos. ca/ ClimateChangeLetter_26Nov09. pdf) - Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Letter to Stephen
Harper (Updated, 2007)
[56] Royal Meteorological Society’s statement on the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report. (http:/ / www. rmets. org/ news/ detail. php?ID=332)
[57] WMO’s Statement at the Twelfth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. (http:/ /
www. wmo. ch/ pages/ mediacentre/ statann/ documents/ SG21_2006_E. pdf)
[58] AMQUA “Petroleum Geologists’ Award to Novelist Crichton Is Inappropriate” (http:/ / www. agu. org/ fora/ eos/ pdfs/ 2006EO360008. pdf)
[59] INQUA Statement On Climate Change. (http:/ / www. inqua. tcd. ie/ documents/ iscc. pdf)
[60] AAWV.net (http:/ / www. aawv. net/ )
[61] AAWV Position Statement on Climate Change, Wildlife Diseases, and Wildlife Health (http:/ / google. com/
search?q=cache:IeEiaoU5hZAJ:www. aawv. net/ AAWVPositionClimateChangeFinal. doc+ AAWV+ Position+ Statements+ wildlife+
diseases+ and+ wildlife+ health& hl=en& ct=clnk& cd=1& gl=us)
[62] AIBS Position Statements (http:/ / www. aibs. org/ position-statements/ )
[63] Scientific societies warn Senate: climate change is real [[Ars Technica (http:/ / arstechnica. com/ tech-policy/ news/ 2009/ 10/
scientific-societies-warn-senate-climate-change-is-real. ars)] website October 22, 2009.]
[64] Letter to US Senators, October, 2009. (http:/ / www. aaas. org/ news/ releases/ 2009/ media/ 1021climate_letter. pdf)
[65] ASM “Global Environmental Change - Microbial Contributions, Microbial Solutions” p.11 (http:/ / www. asm. org/ ASM/ files/
CCPAGECONTENT/ DOCFILENAME/ 0000006005/ globalwarming[1]. pdf)
[66] ASM “Global Environmental Change - Microbial Contributions, Microbial Solutions” p.1 (http:/ / www. asm. org/ ASM/ files/
CCPAGECONTENT/ DOCFILENAME/ 0000006005/ globalwarming[1]. pdf)
[67] ASM “Global Environmental Change - Microbial Contributions, Microbial Solutions” p.2 (http:/ / www. asm. org/ ASM/ files/
CCPAGECONTENT/ DOCFILENAME/ 0000006005/ globalwarming[1]. pdf)
[68] ASM “Global Environmental Change - Microbial Contributions, Microbial Solutions” p.5 (http:/ / www. asm. org/ ASM/ files/
CCPAGECONTENT/ DOCFILENAME/ 0000006005/ globalwarming[1]. pdf)
[69] http:/ / www. australiancoralreefsociety. org/
[70] Australian Coral Reef Society official letter (http:/ / www. australiancoralreefsociety. org/ pdf/ chadwick605a. pdf)
[71] Institute of Biology policy page ‘Climate Change’ (http:/ / www. iob. org/ general. asp?section=science_policy/ policy_issues&
article=climate_change. xml)
[72] SAF Forest Management and Climate Change (http:/ / www. safnet. org/ policyandpresspsst/ climate_change_expires12-8-2013. pdf)
[73] SAF Forest Offset Projects in a Carbon Trading System (http:/ / www. safnet. org/ policyandpresspsst/
offset_projections_expires12-8-2013. pdf)
[74] Wildlife Society Global Climate Change and Wildlife pdf (http:/ / joomla. wildlife. org/ documents/ positionstatements/ 35-Global Climate
Change and Wildlife. pdf)
[75] AAP Global Climate Change and Children's Health (http:/ / aappolicy. aappublications. org/ cgi/ content/ full/ pediatrics;120/ 5/ 1149)
[76] ACPM Policy Statement (http:/ / www. acpm. org/ 2006-002(C). htm)
[77] American Medical Association Policy Statement (http:/ / www. ama-assn. org/ ama/ pub/ category/ 20275. html)
[78] American Public Health Association Policy Statement (http:/ / www. apha. org/ advocacy/ policy/ policysearch/ default. htm?id=1351)
[79] AMA Climate Change and Human Health - 2004 (https:/ / fed. ama. com. au/ cms/ web. nsf/ doc/ WOOD-5ZD6BT)
[80] AMA Climate Change and Human Health - 2004. Revised 2008. (http:/ / www. ama. com. au/ node/ 4442)
[81] WFPHA.org (http:/ / www. wfpha. org/ )
[82] World Federation of Public Health Associations resolution "Global Climate Change" (http:/ / www. wfpha. org/ Archives/ 01. 22 Global
Climate Change. pdf)
[83] WHO Protecting health from climate change (2008) p.2. Retrieved on 2009-04-18 (http:/ / www. who. int/ world-health-day/ toolkit/
report_web. pdf)
[84] Statement supporting AGU statement on human-induced climate change (http:/ / www. aas. org/ governance/ council/ resolutions.
php#climate), American Astronomical Society, 2004
[85] ASA Statement on Climate Change (http:/ / www. amstat. org/ news/ climatechange. cfm)
[86] Policy Statement, Climate Change and Energy (http:/ / www. engineersaustralia. org. au/ representation/ policy-positions/ climate-change.
cfm) February 2007
[87] IAGLR.org (http:/ / www. iaglr. org/ )
[88] IAGLR Fact Sheet The Great Lakes at a Crossroads: Preparing for a Changing Climate (http:/ / www. iaglr. org/ scipolicy/ factsheets/
iaglr_crossroads_climatechange. pdf)
[89] IPENZ.org.nz (http:/ / www. ipenz. org. nz/ ipenz/ )
[90] IPENZ Informatory Note, Climate Change and the greenhouse effect (http:/ / www. ipenz. org. nz/ ipenz/ forms/ pdfs/ Info_Note_6. pdf)
[91] AAPG Position Statement: Climate Change (http:/ / dpa. aapg. org/ gac/ statements/ climatechange. pdf) from dpa.aapg.org
[92] Volunteers: Good For AAPG Climate (http:/ / www. aapg. org/ explorer/ president/ 2007/ 03mar. cfm)
[93] Sunsetting the Global Climate Change Committee (http:/ / 64. 207. 34. 58/ StaticContent/ 3/ TPGs/ 2010_TPGMarApr. pdf), The
Professional Geologist, March/April 2010, p. 28
Scientific opinion on climate change 243

[94] AASC Policy statements are applicable for 5 years by unanimous vote of the membership - July, 2008 (http:/ / www. stateclimate. org/
publications/ default. php?content=policies)
[95] Policy Statement on Climate Variability and Change (http:/ / www. stateclimate. org/ publications/ files/ aascclimatepolicy. pdf) by the
American Association of State Climatologists (AASC)
[96] AGI position statement ‘’Global Climate Change’’ (http:/ / www. agiweb. org/ gapac/ climate_statement. html)
[97] AIPG.org (http:/ / www. aipg. org/ About/ WhatIsAIPG. html)
[98] AIPG Climate Change Letters sent to U.S. Government Officials (http:/ / www. aipg. org/ StaticContent/ anonymous/ state_and_federal/
Climate Change Letters. pdf)
[99] "AIPG Climate Change and Domestic Energy Statement" (http:/ / 64. 207. 34. 58/ StaticContent/ 3/ TPGs/ 2010_TPGJanFeb. pdf), The
Professional Geologist, January/February 2010, p. 42
[100] "Ohio Section Members Vote to Oppose Markey-Waxman Cap & Trade Bill" (http:/ / 64. 207. 34. 58/ StaticContent/ 3/ TPGs/
2009_TPGNovDec. pdf), The Professional Geologist, November/December 2009, p. 14-15
[101] AIPG.org (http:/ / www. aipg. org/ Publications/ TPGPublic. html)
[102] "Climate Change and Society Governance" (http:/ / 64. 207. 34. 58/ StaticContent/ 3/ TPGs/ 2010_TPGMarApr. pdf), The Professional
Geologist, March/April 2010, p. 33
[103] Canadian Federation of Earth Sciences, Position papers: Global Climate Change (http:/ / geoscience. ca/ _ARCHIVE_jan7_2011/
climatechange. html)
[104] AAPG Climate Change June 2007 (http:/ / dpa. aapg. org/ gac/ statements/ climatechange. pdf)
[105] William R. L. Anderegg, James W. Prall, Jacob Harold, and Stephen H. Schneider (April 9, 2010). "Expert credibility in climate change"
(http:/ / www. pnas. org/ content/ early/ 2010/ 06/ 04/ 1003187107. full. pdf+ html). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America. . Retrieved June 23, 2010.
[106] http:/ / www. uic. edu/ depts/ geos/
[107] Doran, Peter T.; Maggie Kendall Zimmerman (January 20, 2009). "Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change" (http:/ / tigger.
uic. edu/ ~pdoran/ 012009_Doran_final. pdf). EOS 90 (3): 22–23. doi:10.1029/2009EO030002. .
[108] Bray, Dennis; von Storch, Hans (2009). "A Survey of the Perspectives of Climate Scientists Concerning Climate Science and Climate
Change" (http:/ / coast. gkss. de/ staff/ storch/ pdf/ CliSci2008. pdf). .
[109] Bray, D.; von Storch H. (2009). "Prediction' or 'Projection; The nomenclature of climate science". Science Communication 30: 534–543.
doi:10.1177/1075547009333698.
[110] Lavelle, Marianne (2008-04-23). "Survey Tracks Scientists' Growing Climate Concern" (http:/ / www. usnews. com/ articles/ news/
national/ 2008/ 04/ 23/ survey-tracks-scientists-growing-climate-concern. html). U.S. News & World Report. . Retrieved 2010-01-20.
[111] Lichter, S. Robert (2008-04-24). "Climate Scientists Agree on Warming, Disagree on Dangers, and Don’t Trust the Media’s Coverage of
Climate Change" (http:/ / stats. org/ stories/ 2008/ global_warming_survey_apr23_08. html). Statistical Assessment Service, George Mason
University. . Retrieved 2010-01-20.
[112] Naomi Oreskes (December 3, 2004 (Erratum January 21, 2005)). "Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change"
(http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ reprint/ 306/ 5702/ 1686. pdf) (PDF). Science 306 (5702): 1686. doi:10.1126/science.1103618.
PMID 15576594. . ( see also for an exchange of letters to Science (http:/ / sciencepolicy. colorado. edu/ admin/ publication_files/
resource-1761-2005. 32. pdf#search=""Consensus About Climate Change?" oreskes"))
[113] D. Bray; H. von Storch (2007). "The Perspectives of Climate Scientists on Global Climate Change" (http:/ / dvsun3. gkss. de/ BERICHTE/
GKSS_Berichte_2007/ GKSS_2007_11. pdf). GKSS Berichte. .
[114] Weiler, Susan (14 October 2003). "Survey of climate-change scientists" (http:/ / aslo. org/ pipermail/ dialognews/ 2003/ 000105. html).
DIALOG and DISCCRS News. .
[115] von Storch, Hans; Bray, Dennis (August 8, 2007). "Climate scientists' views on climate change: a survey" (http:/ / blogs. nature. com/
climatefeedback/ 2007/ 08/ climate_scientists_views_on_cl_1. html). Nature: Climate Feedback. .
[116] Citizens For a Sound Economy Foundation (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 19980525144333/ http:/ / www. cse. org/
surveyenviroreg100897. htm)
[117] Satellite Temperature Data: How Accurate? (http:/ / www. globalwarming. org/ article. php?uid=64) Cooler Heads Coalition October 1997
[118] Bray, Dennis; Hans von Storch (1999). "Climate Science: An Empirical Example of Postnormal Science" (http:/ / coast. gkss. de/ staff/
storch/ pdf/ bray_storch_1999. pdf) (PDF). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80: 439.
doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<0439:CSAEEO>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2007-09-04.
[119] Albandy.edu (http:/ / www. albany. edu/ cpr/ stewart/ )
[120] T. R. Stewart, J. L. Mumpower, P. Reagan-Cirincione, "Scientists' Agreement and Disagreement about Global Climate Change: Evidence
from Surveys", 15. (http:/ / www. albany. edu/ cpr/ stewart/ Papers/ StewartClimateSurvey-1992. pdf)
[121] R. Nixon, "Limbaughesque Science" (http:/ / www. fair. org/ index. php?page=1307), citing a press release by Gallup in the San Francisco
Chronicle, 9/27/92.
[122] Steve Rendall, "The Hypocrisy of George Will" (http:/ / www. fair. org/ index. php?page=1156), FAIR report, citing the San Francisco
Chronicle, 9/27/92.
[123] J.L. Best et al. Eco-Sanity (http:/ / www. heartland. org/ pdf/ 2329do. pdf), p. 55
[124] Oreskes, Naomi (2007). "The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: How Do We Know We’re Not Wrong?". In DiMento, Joseph F. C.;
Doughman, Pamela M.. Climate Change: What It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren. The MIT Press. pp. 65–66.
Scientific opinion on climate change 244

ISBN 9780262541930.
[125] Understanding and Responding to Climate Change (http:/ / dels-old. nas. edu/ climatechange/ understanding-climate-change. shtml)
[126] Joint Science Academies' Statement (http:/ / nationalacademies. org/ onpi/ 06072005. pdf)
[127] Climate Change Research: Issues for the Atmospheric and Related Sciences (http:/ / www. ametsoc. org/ POLICY/
climatechangeresearch_2003. html) February 2003
[128] INQUA statement on climate change (http:/ / www. inqua. tcd. ie/ documents/ iscc. pdf)
[129] Australianreefsocieity.org (http:/ / www. australiancoralreefsociety. org/ )
[130] Australian Coral Reef Society official letter (http:/ / www. australiancoralreefsociety. org/ pdf/ chadwick605a. pdf), June 16, 2006

External links
• Robin Lloyd (23 February 2011). "Why Are Americans So Ill-Informed about Climate Change?" (http://www.
scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=why-are-americans-so-ill). Scientific American. Retrieved 31 March
2011.

List of scientists opposing the mainstream


scientific assessment of global warming
This article lists living and deceased scientists who have made statements that conflict with the mainstream
assessment of global warming as summarized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and
endorsed by other scientific bodies.
Climate scientists agree that the global average surface temperature has risen over the last century. The scientific
consensus was summarized in the 2001 Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC). The main conclusions relating directly to past and ongoing global warming about the scientific opinion on
climate change were as follows:
1. The global average surface temperature has risen 0.6 ± 0.2 °C since the late 19th century, and 0.17 °C per decade
in the last 30 years.[1]
2. "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to
human activities", in particular emissions of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane.[2]
3. If greenhouse gas emissions continue the warming will also continue, with temperatures projected to increase by
1.4 °C to 5.8 °C between 1990 and 2100. Accompanying this temperature increase will be increases in some types
of extreme weather and a projected sea level rise of 9 cm to 88 cm, excluding "uncertainty relating to ice
dynamical changes in the West Antarctic ice sheet".[3] "Overall it is expected that benefits will be outweighed by
the negative health effects of rising temperatures, especially in developing countries." [4]
This article is an attempt to list notable scientists who have made statements in disagreement with one or more of the
principal conclusions of the Third (or Fourth) Assessment Report of the IPCC. Inclusion is based on the following
specific criteria:
1. For the purposes of this list, qualification as a scientist is reached by publication of at least one peer-reviewed
article in their lifetime in a broadly construed area of "natural sciences". The article need not have been written in
recent years nor be in a field relevant to climate.
2. Attributable statements of disagreement in any venue in the individual's own words (not merely inclusion on
petitions, surveys, or lists).
List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming 245

Position: Accuracy of IPCC climate projections is questionable


Individuals in this section conclude that it is not possible to project global climate accurately enough to justify the
ranges projected for temperature and sea-level rise over the next century. They do not conclude specifically that the
current IPCC projections are either too high or too low, but that the projections are likely to be inaccurate due to
inadequacies of current global climate modeling.
• Richard Lindzen,Pubs [5] Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Science at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology and member of the National Academy of Sciences: "We are quite confident (1) that global mean
temperature is about 0.5 °C higher than it was a century ago; (2) that atmospheric levels of CO2 have risen over
the past two centuries; and (3) that CO2 is a greenhouse gas whose increase is likely to warm the earth (one of
many, the most important being water vapor and clouds). But – and I cannot stress this enough – we are not in a
position to confidently attribute past climate change to CO2 or to forecast what the climate will be in the
future."[6] "[T]here has been no question whatsoever that CO2 is an infrared absorber (i.e., a greenhouse gas –
albeit a minor one), and its increase should theoretically contribute to warming. Indeed, if all else were kept equal,
the increase in CO2 should have led to somewhat more warming than has been observed."[7] [8]
• Garth Paltridge,Pubs [9] Visiting Fellow ANU and retired Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Division of
Atmospheric Research and retired Director of the Institute of the Antarctic Cooperative Research Centre."There
are good and straightforward scientific reasons to believe that the burning of fossil fuel and consequent increase
in atmospheric carbon dioxide will lead to an increase in the average temperature of the world above that which
would otherwise be the case. Whether the increase will be large enough to be noticeable is still an unanswered
question."[10]
• Hendrik Tennekes, retired Director of Research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute: "The blind
adherence to the harebrained idea that climate models can generate 'realistic' simulations of climate is the
principal reason why I remain a climate skeptic. From my background in turbulence I look forward with grim
anticipation to the day that climate models will run with a horizontal resolution of less than a kilometer. The
horrible predictability problems of turbulent flows then will descend on climate science with a vengeance."[11]
• Antonino Zichichi,Pubs [12] emeritus professor of nuclear physics at the University of Bologna and president of
the World Federation of Scientists : "models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are
incoherent and invalid from a scientific point of view".[13] He has also said, "It is not possible to exclude that the
observed phenomena may have natural causes. It may be that man has little or nothing to do with it"[14]
List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming 246

Position: Global warming is primarily caused by natural processes


Individuals in this section conclude that the observed warming is more
likely attributable to natural causes than to human activities.
• Khabibullo Abdusamatov, mathematician and astronomer at
Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences: "Global
warming results not from the emission of greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere, but from an unusually high level of solar radiation and
a lengthy – almost throughout the last century – growth in its
intensity...Ascribing 'greenhouse' effect properties to the Earth's
atmosphere is not scientifically substantiated...Heated greenhouse
gases, which become lighter as a result of expansion, ascend to the
atmosphere only to give the absorbed heat away."[15] [16] [17]
• Sallie Baliunas, astronomer, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for
Astrophysics: "[T]he recent warming trend in the surface
Attribution of climate change, based on Meehl et
temperature record cannot be caused by the increase of al. (2004), which represents the consensus view
human-made greenhouse gases in the air."[18]
• George V. Chilingar, Professor of Civil and Petroleum Engineering at the University of Southern California: "The
authors identify and describe the following global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate: (1) solar radiation
..., (2) outgassing as a major supplier of gases to the World Ocean and the atmosphere, and, possibly, (3)
microbial activities ... . The writers provide quantitative estimates of the scope and extent of their corresponding
effects on the Earth’s climate [and] show that the human-induced climatic changes are negligible."[19]
• Ian Clark,Pubs [20] hydrogeologist, professor, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa: "That portion
of the scientific community that attributes climate warming to CO2 relies on the hypothesis that increasing CO2,
which is in fact a minor greenhouse gas, triggers a much larger water vapour response to warm the atmosphere.
This mechanism has never been tested scientifically beyond the mathematical models that predict extensive
warming, and are confounded by the complexity of cloud formation – which has a cooling effect. ... We know
that [the sun] was responsible for climate change in the past, and so is clearly going to play the lead role in
present and future climate change. And interestingly... solar activity has recently begun a downward cycle."[21]
• Chris de Freitas,Pubs [22] Associate Professor, School of Geography, Geology and Environmental Science,
University of Auckland: "There is evidence of global warming. ... But warming does not confirm that carbon
dioxide is causing it. Climate is always warming or cooling. There are natural variability theories of warming. To
support the argument that carbon dioxide is causing it, the evidence would have to distinguish between
human-caused and natural warming. This has not been done."[23]
• David Douglass, Pubs [24]solid-state physicist, professor, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of
Rochester: "The observed pattern of warming, comparing surface and atmospheric temperature trends, does not
show the characteristic fingerprint associated with greenhouse warming. The inescapable conclusion is that the
human contribution is not significant and that observed increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases
make only a negligible contribution to climate warming."[25]
• Don Easterbrook,Pubs [26] emeritus professor of geology, Western Washington University: "global warming since
1900 could well have happened without any effect of CO2. If the cycles continue as in the past, the current warm
cycle should end soon and global temperatures should cool slightly until about 2035"[27]
• William M. Gray, Professor Emeritus and head of The Tropical Meteorology Project, Department of Atmospheric
Science, Colorado State University: "This small warming is likely a result of the natural alterations in global
ocean currents which are driven by ocean salinity variations. Ocean circulation variations are as yet little
understood. Human kind has little or nothing to do with the recent temperature changes. We are not that
influential."[28] "I am of the opinion that [global warming] is one of the greatest hoaxes ever perpetrated on the
List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming 247

American people."[29] "So many people have a vested interest in this global-warming thing—all these big labs and
research and stuff. The idea is to frighten the public, to get money to study it more."[30]
• William Happer, physicist specializing in optics and spectroscopy, Princeton University: "all the evidence I see is
that the current warming of the climate is just like past warmings. In fact, it's not as much as past warmings yet,
and it probably has little to do with carbon dioxide, just like past warmings had little to do with carbon
dioxide"[31]
• William Kininmonth, meteorologist, former Australian delegate to World Meteorological Organization
Commission for Climatology: "There has been a real climate change over the late nineteenth and twentieth
centuries that can be attributed to natural phenomena. Natural variability of the climate system has been
underestimated by IPCC and has, to now, dominated human influences."[32]
• David Legates, associate professor of geography and director of the Center for Climatic Research, University of
Delaware: "About half of the warming during the 20th century occurred prior to the 1940s, and natural variability
accounts for all or nearly all of the warming."[33]
• Tad Murty, oceanographer; adjunct professor, Departments of Civil Engineering and Earth Sciences, University
of Ottawa: global warming "is the biggest scientific hoax being perpetrated on humanity. There is no global
warming due to human anthropogenic activities. The atmosphere hasn’t changed much in 280 million years, and
there have always been cycles of warming and cooling. The Cretaceous period was the warmest on earth. You
could have grown tomatoes at the North Pole"[34]
• Tim Patterson, Pubs [35] paleoclimatologist and Professor of Geology at Carleton University in Canada: "There is
no meaningful correlation between CO2 levels and Earth's temperature over this [geologic] time frame. In fact,
when CO2 levels were over ten times higher than they are now, about 450 million years ago, the planet was in the
depths of the absolute coldest period in the last half billion years. On the basis of this evidence, how could anyone
still believe that the recent relatively small increase in CO2 levels would be the major cause of the past century's
modest warming?"[36] [37]
• Ian Plimer,Pubs [38] Professor emeritus of Mining Geology, The University of Adelaide: "We only have to have
one volcano burping and we have changed the whole planetary climate... It looks as if carbon dioxide actually
follows climate change rather than drives it".[39]
• Tom Segalstad, head of the Geology Museum at the University of Oslo: "The IPCC's temperature curve (the
so-called 'hockey stick' curve) must be in error...human influence on the 'Greenhouse Effect' is minimal
(maximum 4%). Anthropogenic CO2 amounts to 4% of the ~2% of the "Greenhouse Effect", hence an influence
of less than 1 permil of the Earth's total natural 'Greenhouse Effect' (some 0.03 °C of the total ~33 °C)."[40]
• Nicola Scafetta, Pubs [41] research scientist in the physics department at Duke University, wrote a booklet
proposing a phenomenological theory of climate change based on the physical properties of the data. Scafetta
describes his conclusions writing "At least 60% of the warming of the Earth observed since 1970 appears to be
induced by natural cycles which are present in the solar system. A climatic stabilization or cooling until
2030–2040 is forecast by the phenomenological model."[42] [43]
• Nir Shaviv, Pubs [44] astrophysicist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem: "[T]he truth is probably somewhere in
between [the common view and that of skeptics], with natural causes probably being more important over the
past century, whereas anthropogenic causes will probably be more dominant over the next century. ... [A]bout
2/3's (give or take a third or so) of the warming [over the past century] should be attributed to increased solar
activity and the remaining to anthropogenic causes." His opinion is based on some proxies of solar activity over
the past few centuries.[45]
• Fred Singer, Pubs [46] Professor emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia: "The
greenhouse effect is real. However, the effect is minute, insignificant, and very difficult to detect."[47] [48] “It’s not
automatically true that warming is bad, I happen to believe that warming is good, and so do many economists.”[49]
• Willie Soon, astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics: "[T]here's increasingly strong
evidence that previous research conclusions, including those of the United Nations and the United States
List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming 248

government concerning 20th century warming, may have been biased by underestimation of natural climate
variations. The bottom line is that if these variations are indeed proven true, then, yes, natural climate fluctuations
could be a dominant factor in the recent warming. In other words, natural factors could be more important than
previously assumed."[50]
• Roy Spencer, principal research scientist, University of Alabama in Huntsville: "I predict that in the coming
years, there will be a growing realization among the global warming research community that most of the climate
change we have observed is natural, and that mankind’s role is relatively minor".[51]
• Philip Stott, professor emeritus of biogeography at the University of London: "...the myth is starting to implode.
... Serious new research at The Max Planck Society has indicated that the sun is a far more significant factor..."[52]
• Henrik Svensmark, Pubs [53] Danish National Space Center: "Our team ... has discovered that the relatively few
cosmic rays that reach sea-level play a big part in the everyday weather. They help to make low-level clouds,
which largely regulate the Earth’s surface temperature. During the 20th Century the influx of cosmic rays
decreased and the resulting reduction of cloudiness allowed the world to warm up. ... most of the warming during
the 20th Century can be explained by a reduction in low cloud cover."[54]
• Jan Veizer, Pubs [55] environmental geochemist, Professor Emeritus from University of Ottawa: "At this stage,
two scenarios of potential human impact on climate appear feasible: (1) the standard IPCC model ..., and (2) the
alternative model that argues for celestial phenomena as the principal climate driver. ... Models and empirical
observations are both indispensable tools of science, yet when discrepancies arise, observations should carry
greater weight than theory. If so, the multitude of empirical observations favours celestial phenomena as the most
important driver of terrestrial climate on most time scales, but time will be the final judge."[56]

Position: Cause of global warming is unknown


Scientists in this section conclude that no principal cause can be ascribed to the observed rising temperatures,
whether man-made or natural.
• Syun-Ichi Akasofu, Pubs [57] retired professor of geophysics and Founding Director of the International Arctic
Research Center of the University of Alaska Fairbanks: "[T]he method of study adopted by the International
Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is fundamentally flawed, resulting in a baseless conclusion: Most of the
observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. Contrary to this statement ..., there is so far no
definitive evidence that 'most' of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect. ... [The IPCC] should have
recognized that the range of observed natural changes should not be ignored, and thus their conclusion should be
very tentative. The term 'most' in their conclusion is baseless."[58]
• Claude Allègre, geochemist, Institute of Geophysics (Paris): "The increase in the CO2 content of the atmosphere
is an observed fact and mankind is most certainly responsible. In the long term, this increase will without doubt
become harmful, but its exact role in the climate is less clear. Various parameters appear more important than
CO2. Consider the water cycle and formation of various types of clouds, and the complex effects of industrial or
agricultural dust. Or fluctuations of the intensity of the solar radiation on annual and century scale, which seem
better correlated with heating effects than the variations of CO2 content."[59]
• Robert C. Balling, Jr., a professor of geography at Arizona State University: "[I]t is very likely that the recent
upward trend [in global surface temperature] is very real and that the upward signal is greater than any noise
introduced from uncertainties in the record. However, the general error is most likely to be in the warming
direction, with a maximum possible (though unlikely) value of 0.3 °C. ... At this moment in time we know only
that: (1) Global surface temperatures have risen in recent decades. (2) Mid-tropospheric temperatures have
warmed little over the same period. (3) This difference is not consistent with predictions from numerical climate
models."[60]
List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming 249

• John Christy, Pubs [61] professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at the
University of Alabama in Huntsville, contributor to several IPCC reports: "I'm sure the majority (but not all) of
my IPCC colleagues cringe when I say this, but I see neither the developing catastrophe nor the smoking gun
proving that human activity is to blame for most of the warming we see. Rather, I see a reliance on climate
models (useful but never "proof") and the coincidence that changes in carbon dioxide and global temperatures
have loose similarity over time."[62]
• Petr Chylek, Space and Remote Sensing Sciences researcher, Los Alamos National Laboratory: "carbon dioxide
should not be considered as a dominant force behind the current warming...how much of the [temperature]
increase can be ascribed to CO2, to changes in solar activity, or to the natural variability of climate is
uncertain"[63]
• David Deming, geology professor at the University of Oklahoma: "The amount of climatic warming that has
taken place in the past 150 years is poorly constrained, and its cause – human or natural – is unknown. There is
no sound scientific basis for predicting future climate change with any degree of certainty. If the climate does
warm, it is likely to be beneficial to humanity rather than harmful. In my opinion, it would be foolish to establish
national energy policy on the basis of misinformation and irrational hysteria."[64]

Position: Global warming will have few negative consequences


Scientists in this section conclude that projected rising temperatures will be of little impact or a net positive for
human society and/or the Earth's environment.
• Craig D. Idso, faculty researcher, Office of Climatology, Arizona State University and founder of the Center for
the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change: "the rising CO2 content of the air should boost global plant
productivity dramatically, enabling humanity to increase food, fiber and timber production and thereby continue
to feed, clothe, and provide shelter for their still-increasing numbers ... this atmospheric CO2-derived blessing is
as sure as death and taxes." (May 2007)[65]
• Sherwood Idso, former research physicist, USDA Water Conservation Laboratory, and adjunct professor, Arizona
State University: "[W]arming has been shown to positively impact human health, while atmospheric CO2
enrichment has been shown to enhance the health-promoting properties of the food we eat, as well as stimulate
the production of more of it. ... [W]e have nothing to fear from increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and
global warming." (2003)[66]
• Patrick Michaels, Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and retired research professor of environmental science at
the University of Virginia: "scientists know quite precisely how much the planet will warm in the foreseeable
future, a modest three-quarters of a degree (Celsius), plus or minus a mere quarter-degree ... a modest warming is
a likely benefit... human warming will be strongest and most obvious in very cold and dry air, such as in Siberia
and northwestern North America in the dead of winter." (October 16, 2003)[67]

Now deceased
The lists above only include living scientists. The following are deceased.
• August H. "Augie" Auer Jr. (1940–2007) believed that the cause of global warming was unknown. Retired New
Zealand MetService Meteorologist, past professor of atmospheric science at the University of Wyoming, in 2006
he said: "So if you multiply the total contribution 3.6 by the man-made portion of it, 3.2, you find out that the
anthropogenic contribution of CO2 to the global greenhouse effect is 0.117 percent, roughly 0.12 percent, that's
like 12c in $100." "'It's miniscule ... it's nothing,'".[68]
• Reid Bryson (1920–2008) believed global warming was primarily caused by natural processes. Emeritus
Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, in 2007 he said: "It’s absurd.
Of course it’s going up. It has gone up since the early 1800s, before the Industrial Revolution, because we’re
coming out of the Little Ice Age, not because we’re putting more carbon dioxide into the air."[69]
List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming 250

• Marcel Leroux (1938–2008) believed global warming was primarily caused by natural processes. former
Professor of Climatology, Université Jean Moulin, in 2005 he said: "The possible causes, then, of climate change
are: well-established orbital parameters on the palaeoclimatic scale, ... solar activity, ...; volcanism ...; and far at
the rear, the greenhouse effect, and in particular that caused by water vapor, the extent of its influence being
unknown. These factors are working together all the time, and it seems difficult to unravel the relative importance
of their respective influences upon climatic evolution. Equally, it is tendentious to highlight the anthropic factor,
which is, clearly, the least credible among all those previously mentioned."[70]
• Frederick Seitz (1911–2008) believed global warming was primarily caused by natural processes. Former
solid-state physicist, former president of the National Academy of Sciences, in 2001 he said: "So we see that the
scientific facts indicate that all the temperature changes observed in the last 100 years were largely natural
changes and were not caused by carbon dioxide produced in human activities."[71]

References
[1] Climate Change 2001: (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 005. htm) Working Group I: The Scientific Basis p.5 – IPCC
[2] Climate Change 2001: (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 007. htm) Working Group I: The Scientific Basis p.7 – IPCC
[3] Climate Change 2001: (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 008. htm) Working Group I: The Scientific Basis p.8 – IPCC
[4] Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ syr/ ar4_syr. pdf)
[5] http:/ / eapsweb. mit. edu/ people/ person. asp?position=Faculty& who=lindzen
[6] The Press Gets It Wrong Our report doesn't support the Kyoto treaty. (http:/ / opinionjournal. com/ editorial/ feature. html?id=95000606)
Lindzen, Richard Opinion Journal (The Wall Street Journal) June 2001
[7] There is no consensus on Global Warming (http:/ / www. opinionjournal. com/ extra/ ?id=110008597) appeared in The San Francisco
Examiner July 2006 and in The Wall Street Journal, June 26, 2006, Page A14
[8] The Climate Science Isn't Settled (http:/ / online. wsj. com/ article/ SB10001424052748703939404574567423917025400. html) in The Wall
Street Journal online, November 30, 2009.
[9] http:/ / www. rsbs. anu. edu. au/ ResearchGroups/ EBG/ profiles/ Garth_Paltridge/ documents/ Paltridge_Publicationsto2009. pdf
[10] Paltridge, FGarth (2009). the Climate Caper (http:/ / books. google. com. au/ books?id=FXNzPgAACAAJ& dq=climate+ caper&
ei=DCDQSuylA5-qkASewLz1DQ). Connor Court Publishing. ISBN 978-1-921421-25-9. .
[11] A Skeptical View of Climate Models (http:/ / www. his. com/ ~sepp/ Archive/ NewSEPP/ Climate models-Tennekes. htm) Tennekes,
Hendrik from Science & Environmental Policy Project www.his.com/~sepp
[12] http:/ / www. ccsem. infn. it/ em/ zichichi/ AZ_publication_list. pdf
[13] Global Warming Natural, Says Expert (http:/ / www. zenit. org/ english/ visualizza. phtml?sid=106708) Zenit April 2007
[14] Zichichi, Antonino (April 26–27, 2007). "Meteorology and Climate: Problems and Expectations" (http:/ / www. justpax. it/ pcgp/ dati/
2007-05/ 18-999999/ ZICHICHI_METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATE. pdf). Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace. . Retrieved 2009-10-25.
"quote is found on page 9"
[15] Russian academic says CO2 not to blame for global warming (http:/ / en. rian. ru/ russia/ 20070115/ 59078992. html) Russian News &
Information Agency, January 2007
[16] Russian scientist issues global cooling warning (http:/ / en. rian. ru/ russia/ 20060825/ 53143686. html) Russian News & Information
Agency August 2006
[17] http:/ / www. ogoniok. com/ 4933/ 24/ Page in Russian, Go here (http:/ / translate. google. com/ translate?u=http:/ / www. ogoniok. com/
4933/ 24/ & langpair=ru|en& hl=en& ie=UTF8) for a translation.
[18] Global Warming Science vs. Computer Model Speculation: Just Ask the Experts (http:/ / capmag. com/ article. asp?ID=1816) Capitalism
Magazine, August 2002
[19] On global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate. Are humans involved? (http:/ / www. springerlink. com/ content/ t341350850360302/
) L. F. Khilyuk1 and G. V. Chilingar Environmental Geology, vol. 50 no. 6, August 2006
[20] http:/ / mysite. science. uottawa. ca/ idclark/ pubs. html
[21] Letter to the editor (http:/ / www. nrsp. com/ clark_letter_22-03-04. html) The Hill Times, March 2004
[22] http:/ / www. sges. auckland. ac. nz/ about_us/ our_people/ defreitas_chris/ index. shtm#Publications
[23] http:/ / www. climatescience. org. nz/ assets/ 2006510223000. CSC_News_3. PDF The New Zealand Herald, May 2006
[24] http:/ / www. pas. rochester. edu/ ~douglass/ recent-publications. html
[25] Newsmax.com – New Study Explodes Human-Global Warming Story (http:/ / www. newsmax. com/ insidecover/ global_warming/ 2007/
12/ 10/ 55974. html)
[26] http:/ / myweb. wwu. edu/ dbunny/ pubs. htm
[27] The Cause of Global Warming and Predictions for the Coming Century (http:/ / gsa. confex. com/ gsa/ 2006AM/ finalprogram/
abstract_108164. htm) Easterbrook, Don
List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming 251

[28] Viewpoint: Get off warming bandwagon (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ in_depth/ sci_tech/ 2000/ climate_change/ 1023334. stm) Gray,
William BBC November 2000
[29] The Tempest (http:/ / www. washingtonpost. com/ wp-dyn/ content/ article/ 2006/ 05/ 23/ AR2006052301305_pf. html) Achenbach, Joel
The Washington Post May 2006
[30] Discover Dialogue: Meteorologist William Gray (http:/ / www. discover. com/ issues/ sep-05/ departments/ discover-dialogue) Discover
September 2005
[31] Raymond Brusca (January 12, 2009). "Professor denies global warming theory" (http:/ / www. dailyprincetonian. com/ 2009/ 01/ 12/ 22506/
). .
[32] Climate Change: A Natural Hazard (http:/ / www. lavoisier. com. au/ papers/ articles/ climatechange. pdf)
[33] Climate Science: Climate Change and Its Impacts (http:/ / www. ncpa. org/ pub/ st/ st285/ ) National Center for Policy Analysis May 2006
[34] Global warning? Controversy heats up in the scientific community (http:/ / magazine. carleton. ca/ 2005_Spring/ 1535. htm) Robinson,
Cindy Carleton University Spring 2005
[35] http:/ / http-server. carleton. ca/ ~tpatters/ publications/ publications. html
[36] Scientists respond to Gore's warnings of climate catastrophe (http:/ / www. canadafreepress. com/ 2006/ harris061206. htm) Harris, Tom
Canada Free Press June 2006
[37] Read the Sunspots (http:/ / www. canada. com/ nationalpost/ financialpost/ comment/ story.
html?id=597d0677-2a05-47b4-b34f-b84068db11f4& p=4) Patterson, Timothy Financial Post June 2007
[38] http:/ / www. ecms. adelaide. edu. au/ civeng/ staff/ iplimer01. html#publications
[39] Wild weather ignites climate change debate (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ lateline/ stories/ s650126. htm)
[40] Segalstad, Tom. "What is CO2 – friend or foe?" (http:/ / www. co2web. info/ Segalstad_ISMA_CO2. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-07-04.
[41] http:/ / www. fel. duke. edu/ ~scafetta/ index-publications. html
[42] Scafetta webpage (http:/ / www. fel. duke. edu/ ~scafetta/ index. html)
[43] "Climate Change and Its Causes, A Discussion About Some Key Issues” (http:/ / scienceandpublicpolicy. org/ images/ stories/ papers/
originals/ climate_change_cause. pdf)
[44] http:/ / www. phys. huji. ac. il/ ~shaviv/ cv/ cv. html
[45] Carbon Dioxide or Solar Forcing? (http:/ / www. sciencebits. com/ CO2orSolar) ScienceBits
[46] http:/ / www. sepp. org/ about%20sepp/ bios/ singer/ profact. html
[47] Singer, S. Fred (April 22, 2005). "'Flat Earth Award' nominee's challenge to Chicken Littles" (http:/ / www. csmonitor. com/ 2005/ 0422/
p08s01-coop. html). Christian Science Monitor. .
[48] Singer, S. Fred; Avery, Dennis T. (September 2005). "The Physical Evidence of Earth’s Unstoppable 1,500-Year Climate Cycle" (http:/ /
www. ncpa. org/ pdfs/ st279. pdf). National Center for Policy Analysis. .
[49] The Denial Machine (http:/ / www. cbc. ca/ fifth/ denialmachine/ index. html) CBC's Denial machine @ 19:23 – Google Video Link (http:/ /
video. google. com/ videoplay?docid=522784499045867811& sourceid=docidfeed& hl=en)
[50] Global warming is not so hot: 1003 was worse, researchers find (http:/ / news. harvard. edu/ gazette/ 2003/ 04. 24/ 01-weather. html)
Harvard University Gazette April 2003
[51] (http:/ / epw. senate. gov/ public/ index. cfm?FuseAction=Files. View& FileStore_id=e12b56cb-4c7b-4c21-bd4a-7afbc4ee72f3) Testimony
of Roy W. Spencer before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee on July 22, 2008
[52] Essay 1: 'Global Warming' as Myth (http:/ / parliamentofthings. info/ climate. html) A Parliament of Things
[53] http:/ / www. space. dtu. dk/ English/ Research/ Research_divisions/ Geodesy/ Publications. aspx?lg=showcommon& type=publications&
id=38287
[54] Influence of Cosmic Rays on the Earth's Climate (http:/ / www. junkscience. com/ Greenhouse/ influence-of-cosmic-rays-on-the-earth. pdf)
Svensmark, Henry Danish National Space Center, Juliane Maries Vej 30, DK-2100 Copenhagen
[55] http:/ / mysite. science. uottawa. ca/ jveizer/ default. html
[56] Celestial climate driver: a perspective from four billion years of the carbon cycle (http:/ / www. findarticles. com/ p/ articles/ mi_m0QQS/
is_1_32/ ai_n13670777/ pg_11) and here (http:/ / www. esd. mun. ca/ ~gac/ JOURNALS/ TOC/ GACgcV32No1Web. pdf) In J. Veizer, ,
Geoscience Canada, March 2005
[57] http:/ / www. iarc. uaf. edu/ people/ sakasofu
[58] On the Fundamental Defect in the IPCC’s Approach to Global Warming Research (http:/ / climatesci. org/ 2007/ 06/ 15/
on-the-fundamental-defect-in-the-ipcc’s-approach-to-global-warming-research-by-syun-ichi-akasofu/ ) Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr.
Research Group Weblog, June 15, 2007
[59] Climat: la prévention, oui, la peur, non (http:/ / www. lexpress. fr/ idees/ tribunes/ dossier/ allegre/ dossier. asp?ida=452950), Translation
from the original French version in L'Express, May 2006
[60] The Increase in Global Temperature: What it Does and Does Not Tell Us (http:/ / www. marshall. org/ pdf/ materials/ 170. pdf) Balling,
Robert George C. Marshall Institute, Policy Outlook September 2003
[61] http:/ / www. nsstc. uah. edu/ atmos/ christy_pubs. html
[62] Christy, John (2007-11-01). "My Nobel Moment" (http:/ / online. wsj. com/ article/ SB119387567378878423.
html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries). Wall Street Journal. . Retrieved 2007-11-02.
[63] A Long Term Perspective on Climate Change (http:/ / downloads. heartland. org/ 2329bo. pdf) – Heartland.org
List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming 252

[64] Testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works (http:/ / epw. senate. gov/ hearing_statements.
cfm?id=266543) December 2006
[65] A Science—Based Rebuttal to the Testimony of Al Gore before the United States Senate Environment & Public Works Committee (http:/ /
www. heartland. org/ custom/ semod_policybot/ pdf/ 21345. pdf)
[66] Enhanced or Impaired? Human Health in a CO2-Enriched Warmer World (http:/ / www. co2science. org/ scripts/ Template/
0_CO2ScienceB2C/ pdf/ health2pps. pdf). CO2 Science. November 2003, p. 30
[67] Michaels, Patrick (October 16, 2003). "Posturing and Reality on Warming" (http:/ / www. cato. org/ research/ articles/ michaels-031016.
html). CATO Institute. . Retrieved June 10, 2009.
[68] AUER EXPLAINS WHY HE BACKS CLIMATE SCIENCE COALITION (http:/ / www. tmcnet. com/ usubmit/ 2006/ 04/ 30/ 1626112.
htm) New Zealand Press Association April 30, 2006.
[69] Wisconsin's Energy Cooperative (http:/ / www. wecnmagazine. com/ 2007issues/ may/ may07. html) May 2007
[70] M. Leroux, Global Warming – Myth or Reality?, 2005, p. 120 (http:/ / www. amazon. com/ dp/ 354023909X)
[71] Do people cause global warming? (http:/ / www. heartland. org/ Article. cfm?artId=812) Heartland Institute Environment News December
2001

Effects of global warming


This article is about the effects of
global warming and climate change.[2]
The effects, or impacts, of climate
change may be physical, ecological,
social or economic. Evidence of
observed climate change includes the
instrumental temperature record, rising
sea levels, and decreased snow cover
in the Northern Hemisphere.[3]
According to the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
(2007a:10), "[most] of the observed
increase in global average
temperatures since the mid-20th
century is very likely due to the
observed increase in [human
greenhouse gas] concentrations". It is
predicted that future climate changes
will include further global warming
(i.e., an upward trend in global mean
temperature), sea level rise, and a
probable increase in the frequency of Graphical description of risks and impacts of climate change by IPCC (2001). A revision
[1]
some extreme weather events. of this figure by Smith et al. (2009) shows increased risks.

Signatories of the United Nations


Framework Convention on Climate Change have agreed to implement policies designed to reduce their emissions of
greenhouse gases.
Effects of global warming 253

Definition of climate change


This article refers to reports produced by the IPCC. In their usage, "climate change" refers to a change in the state of
the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or variability of its properties, and that persists for
extended periods, typically decades or longer (IPCC, 2007d:30).[4] The climate change referred to may be due to
natural causes or the result of human activity.

Physical impacts

Global mean surface temperature difference from the average for 1880-2009

Mean surface temperature change for the period 1999 to 2008 relative to the average temperatures from 1940 to 1980

This section describes some physical impacts of climate change. For some of these physical impacts, their effect on
social and economic systems are also described.
Over the last hundred years or so, the instrumental temperature record has shown a trend in climate of increased
global mean temperature, i.e., global warming. Other observed changes include Arctic shrinkage, Arctic methane
release, releases of terrestrial carbon from permafrost regions and Arctic methane release in coastal sediments, and
sea level rise.[5] [6] Global average temperature is predicted to increase over this century, with a probable increase in
frequency of some extreme weather events, and changes in rainfall patterns. Moving from global to regional scales,
there is increased uncertainty over how climate will change. The probability of warming having unforeseen
consequences increases with the rate, magnitude, and duration of climate change.[7] Some of the physical impacts of
climate change are irreversible at continental and global scales.[8] With medium confidence, IPCC (2007b:17)
concluded that with a global average temperature increase of 1–4°C, (relative to 1990–2000) partial deglaciation of
the Greenland ice sheet would occur over a period of centuries to millennia.[9] Including the possible contribution of
partial deglaciation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, sea level would rise by 4–6 m or more.

Effects on weather
Observations show that there have been changes in weather.[10] As climate changes, the probabilities of certain types
of weather events are affected.
Changes have been observed in the amount, intensity, frequency, and type of precipitation.[11] Widespread increases
in heavy precipitation have occurred, even in places where total rain amounts have decreased. IPCC (2007d)
concluded that human influences had, more likely than not (greater than 50% probability, based on expert
judgement), contributed to an increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events.[12] Projections of future
changes in precipitation show overall increases in the global average, but with substantial shifts in where and how
precipitation falls.[13]
Effects of global warming 254

Evidence suggests that since the 1970s, there have been substantial increases in the intensity and duration of tropical
storms and hurricanes.[14] Models project a general tendency for more intense but fewer storms outside the
tropics.[13]

Extreme weather
Since the late 20th century, changes have been observed in the trends of some extreme weather and climate events,
e.g., heat waves.[15] Human activities have, with varying degrees of confidence, contributed to some of these
observed trends. Projections for the 21st century suggest continuing changes in trends for some extreme events.
Solomon et al. (2007), for example, projected the following likely (greater than 66% probability, based on expert
judgement) changes:
• an increase in the areas affected by drought;
• increased tropical cyclone activity;
• and increased incidence of extreme high sea level (excluding tsunamis)

Increased freshwater flow


Research based on satellite observations, published in October, 2010, shows an increase in the flow of freshwater
into the world's oceans, partly from melting ice and partly from increased precipitation driven by an increase in
global ocean evaporation. The increase in global freshwater flow, based on data from 1994 to 2006, was about 18%.
Much of the increase is in areas which already experience high rainfall. One effect, as perhaps experienced in the
2010 Pakistan floods, is to overwhelm flood control infrastructure.[16]

Local climate change

Regional effects of global warming vary in nature. Some are the result
of a generalised global change, such as rising temperature, resulting in
local effects, such as melting ice. In other cases, a change may be
related to a change in a particular ocean current or weather system. In
such cases, the regional effect may be disproportionate and will not
necessarily follow the global trend.
There are three major ways in which global warming will make
changes to regional climate: melting or forming ice, changing the
hydrological cycle (of evaporation and precipitation) and changing
currents in the oceans and air flows in the atmosphere. The coast can
also be considered a region, and will suffer severe impacts from sea
level rise. The first recorded South Atlantic hurricane,
"Catarina", which hit Brazil in March 2004

Biogeochemical cycles
Climate change may have an effect on the carbon cycle in an interactive "feedback" process . A feedback exists
where an initial process triggers changes in a second process that in turn influences the initial process. A positive
feedback intensifies the original process, and a negative feedback reduces it (IPCC, 2007d:78).[4] Models suggest
that the interaction of the climate system and the carbon cycle is one where the feedback effect is positive (Schneider
et al.., 2007:792).[17]
Using the A2 SRES emissions scenario, Schneider et al.. (2007:789) found that this effect led to additional warming
by 2100, relative to the 1990-2000 period, of 0.1 to 1.5 °C. This estimate was made with high confidence. The
climate projections made in the IPCC Forth Assessment Report of 1.1 to 6.4 °C account for this feedback effect. On
the other hand, with medium confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007) commented that additional releases of GHGs were
possible from permafrost, peat lands, wetlands, and large stores of marine hydrates at high latitudes.
Effects of global warming 255

Glacier retreat and disappearance


IPCC (2007a:5) found that, on average, mountain glaciers and snow
cover had decreased in both the northern and southern hemispheres.[3]
This widespread decrease in glaciers and ice caps has contributed to
observed sea level rise. With very high or high confidence, IPCC
(2007d:11) made a number of predictions relating to future changes in
glaciers:[4]

• Mountainous areas in Europe will face glacier retreat


• In Latin America, changes in precipitation patterns and the
A map of the change in thickness of mountain disappearance of glaciers will significantly affect water availability
glaciers since 1970. Thinning in orange and red, for human consumption, agriculture, and energy production
thickening in blue.
• In Polar regions, there will be reductions in glacier extent and the
thickness of glaciers.

Oceans
The role of the oceans in global warming is a complex one. The oceans serve as a sink for carbon dioxide, taking up
much that would otherwise remain in the atmosphere, but increased levels of CO2 have led to ocean acidification.
Furthermore, as the temperature of the oceans increases, they become less able to absorb excess CO2. Global
warming is projected to have a number of effects on the oceans. Ongoing effects include rising sea levels due to
thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and warming of the ocean surface, leading to increased
temperature stratification. Other possible effects include large-scale changes in ocean circulation.

Acidification
Dissolving CO2 in seawater increases the hydrogen ion (H+) concentration in the ocean, and thus decreases ocean
pH. Caldeira and Wickett (2003) placed the rate and magnitude of modern ocean acidification changes in the context
of probable historical changes during the last 300 million years.[18] Since the industrial revolution began, it is
estimated that surface ocean pH has dropped by slightly more than 0.1 units (on the logarithmic scale of pH;
approximately a 30% increase in H+), and it is estimated that it will drop by a further 0.3 to 0.5 units (more than
doubling ocean H+ concentrations) by 2100 as the oceans absorb more anthropogenic CO2.[18] [19] [20]

Oxygen depletion
The amount of oxygen dissolved in the oceans may decline, with adverse consequences for ocean life.[21] [22]

Sea level rise

IPCC (2007a:5) reported that since 1961, global average sea level had risen at an average rate of 1.8 [1.3 to 2.3]
mm/yr.[3] Between 1993 and 2003, the rate increased above the previous period to 3.1 [2.4 to 3.8] mm/yr. IPCC
(2007a) were uncertain whether the increase in rate from 1993 to 2003 was due to natural variations in sea level over
the time period, or whether it reflected an increase in the underlying long-term trend.
IPCC (2007a:13, 14) projected sea level rise to the end of the 21st century using the SRES emission scenarios.
Across the six SRES marker scenarios, sea level was projected to rise by 18 to 59 cm (7.1 to 23.2 inches). This
Effects of global warming 256

projection was for the time period 2090-2099, with the increase in level relative to average sea levels over the
1980-1999 period. Due to a lack of scientific understanding, this sea level rise estimate does not include all of the
possible contributions of ice sheets (see the section on abrupt or irreversible changes).

Temperature rise
From 1961 to 2003, the global ocean temperature has risen by 0.10 °C from the surface to a depth of 700 m. There is
variability both year-to-year and over longer time scales, with global ocean heat content observations showing high
rates of warming for 1991 to 2003, but some cooling from 2003 to 2007.[23] The temperature of the Antarctic
Southern Ocean rose by 0.17 °C (0.31 °F) between the 1950s and the 1980s, nearly twice the rate for the world's
oceans as a whole.[24] As well as having effects on ecosystems (e.g. by melting sea ice, affecting algae that grow on
its underside), warming reduces the ocean's ability to absorb CO2.

Social systems

Food supply
Climate change will impact agriculture and food production around the world due to: the effects of elevated CO2 in
the atmosphere, higher temperatures, altered precipitation and transpiration regimes, increased frequency of extreme
events, and modified weed, pest, and pathogen pressure (Easterling et al.., 2007:282).[25] In general, low-latitude
areas are at most risk of having decreased crop yields (Schneider et al.., 2007:790).[17] With low to medium
confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007:787) concluded that for about a 1 to 3°C global mean temperature increase (by
2100, relative to the 1990-2000 average level) there would be productivity decreases for some cereals in low
latitudes, and productivity increases in high latitudes. With medium confidence, global production potential was
predicted to:
• increase up to around 3°C,
• very likely decrease above about 3 to 4°C.
Most of the studies on global agriculture assessed by Schneider et al.. (2007:790) had not incorporated a number of
critical factors, including changes in extreme events, or the spread of pests and diseases. Studies had also not
considered the development of specific practices or technologies to aid adaptation.

Health
Human beings are exposed to climate change through changing weather patterns (temperature, precipitation,
sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events) and indirectly through changes in water, air and food quality and
changes in ecosystems, agriculture, industry and settlements and the economy (Confalonieri et al.., 2007:393).[26]
According to a literature assessment by Confalonieri et al.. (2007:393), the effects of climate change to date have
been small, but are projected to progressively increase in all countries and regions.
With high confidence, Confalonieri et al.. (2007:393) concluded that climate change had altered the seasonal
distribution of some allergenic pollen species. With medium confidence, they concluded that climate change had:
• altered the distribution of some infectious disease vectors
• increased heatwave-related deaths
With high confidence, IPCC (2007d:48) projected that:[4]
• the health status of millions of people would be affected through, for example, increases in malnutrition;
increased deaths, diseases and injury due to extreme weather events; increased burden of diarrhoeal diseases;
increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to high concentrations of ground-level ozone in urban
areas related to climate change; and altered spatial distribution of some infectious diseases.
Effects of global warming 257

• climate change would bring some benefits in temperate areas, such as fewer deaths from cold exposure, and some
mixed effects such as changes in range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa. Overall, IPCC (2007d:48)
expected that benefits would be outweighed by negative health effects of rising temperatures, especially in
developing countries.
With very high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007:393) concluded that economic development was an important
component of possible adaptation to climate change. Economic growth on its own, however, was not judged to be
sufficient to insulate the world's population from disease and injury due to climate change. The manner in which
economic growth occurs was judged to be important, along with how the benefits of growth are distributed in
society. Examples of other important factors in determining the health of populations were listed as: education,
health care, and public-health infrastructure.

Specific health impacts


Malnutrition
With high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that malnutrition would increase due to climate
change.[27] This link is associated with climate variability and change (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[28] Drought
reduces variety in diets and reduces overall consumption. This can lead to micronutrient deficiencies.
The World Health Organization (WHO) (referred to by Confalonieri et al., 2007)[29] conducted a regional and global
assessment to quantify the amount of premature morbidity and mortality due to a range of factors, including climate
change. Projections were made over future climate change impacts. Limited adjustments for adaptation were
included in the estimates based on these projections. Projected relative risks attributable to climate change in 2030
varied by health outcome and region. Risks were largely negative, with most of the projected disease burden due to
increases in diarrhoeal disease and malnutrition. These increases were primarily in low-income populations already
experiencing a large burden of disease.
Extreme events
With high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that climate change would increase the number of people
suffering from death, disease and injury from heatwaves, floods, storms, fires and droughts.[27]
Floods and weather disasters
Floods are low-probability, high-impact events that can overwhelm physical infrastructure and human communities
(Confalonieri et al., 2007).[30] Major storm and flood disasters have occurred in the last two decades.
The impacts of weather disasters is considerable and unequally distributed. For example, natural disasters have been
shown to result in increased domestic violence against - and post-traumatic stress disorders in – women. In terms of
deaths and populations affected, floods and tropical cyclones have the greatest impact in South Asia and Latin
America. Vulnerability to weather disasters depends on the attributes of the person at risk, including where they live
and their age, as well as other social and environmental factors. High-density populations in low-lying coastal
regions experience a high health burden from weather disasters.
Heatwaves
Hot days, hot nights and heatwaves have become more frequent (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[31] Heatwaves are
associated with marked short-term increases in mortality. For example, in August 2003, a heatwave in Europe
resulted in excess mortality in the range of 35,000 total deaths.
Heat-related morbidity and mortality is projected to increase (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[32] The health burden could
be relatively small for moderate heatwaves in temperate regions, because deaths occur primarily in susceptible
persons.
Drought
The effects of drought on health include deaths, malnutrition, infectious diseases and respiratory diseases
(Confalonieri et al., 2007).[28] Countries within the "Meningitis Belt" in semi-arid sub-Saharan Africa experience the
Effects of global warming 258

highest endemicity and epidemic frequency of meningococcal meningitis in Africa, although other areas in the Rift
Valley, the Great Lakes, and southern Africa are also affected (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[33] The spatial distribution,
intensity, and seasonality of meningococcal (epidemic) meningitis appear to be strongly linked to climate and
environmental factors, particularly drought. The cause of this link is not fully understood.
Fires
In some regions, changes in temperature and precipitation are projected to increase the frequency and severity of fire
events (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[34] Forest and bush fires cause burns, damage from smoke inhalation and other
injuries.
Infectious disease vectors
With high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that climate change would continue to change the range of
some infectious disease vectors.[27] Vector-borne diseases (VBD) are infections transmitted by the bite of infected
arthropod species, such as mosquitoes, ticks, triatomine bugs, sandflies, and blackflies (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[35]
There is some evidence of climate-change-related shifts in the distribution of tick vectors of disease, of some
(non-malarial) mosquito vectors in Europe and North America. Climate change has also been implicated in changes
in the breeding and migration dates of several bird species. Several species of wild bird can act as carriers of human
pathogens as well as of vectors of infectious agents.
Dengue
It is possibled that climate change will increase the number of people at risk of dengue (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[27]
Based on the expert judgement of Confalonieri et al. (2007), this projection had about a two-in-ten chance of being
correct. Dengue is the world's most important vector-borne viral disease (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[36] Several
studies have reported associations between dengue and climate, however, these associations are not entirely
consistent.
Malaria
The spatial distribution, intensity of transmission, and seasonalty of malaria is influenced by climate in Sub-saharan
Africa (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[37] Rainfall can be a limiting factor for mosquito populations and there is some
evidence of reductions in transmission associated with decadal decreases in rainfall. The effects of observed climate
change on the geographical distribution of malaria and its transmission intensity in highland regions remains
controversial. There is no clear evidence that malaria has been affected by climate change in South America or in
continental regions of the Russian Federation. There is still much uncertainty about the potential impact of climate
change on malaria at local and global scales.
A paper by researchers from the University of Oxford and the University of Florida published in Nature in May 2010
concluded that claims that a warming climate has led to more widespread disease and death due to malaria are
largely at odds with the evidence, and that "predictions of an intensification of malaria in a warmer world, based on
extrapolated empirical relationships or biological mechanisms, must be set against a context of a century of
warming that has seen marked global declines in the disease and a substantial weakening of the global correlation
between malaria endemicity and climate."[38] [39]
Other infectious diseases
There is good evidence that diseases transmitted by rodents sometimes increase during heavy rainfall and flooding
because of altered patterns of human-pathogen-rodent contact (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[40]
Projections
With very high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) concluded that climate change would have mixed effects on
malaria.[27] Malaria is a complex disease to model and all of the published models assessed by Confalonieri et al.
(2007) had limited parameterization of some key factors.[41] Parametrization is used in climate models because the
resolution of models is insufficient to resolve some physical processes (Randall et al., 2007).[42] Given this
limitation, models assessed by Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that, particularly in Africa, climate change would
Effects of global warming 259

be associated with geographical expansions of the areas suitable for Plasmodium falciparum malaria in some
regions, and contractions in other regions. Projections also suggested that some regions would experience a longer
season of transmission. Projections suggested expansions in vector species that carry dengue for parts of Australia
and New Zealand.
Diarrhoeal diseases
With medium confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) concluded that climate change would increase the burden of
diarrhoeal diseases.[27] Childhood mortality due to diarrhoea in low-income countries, especially in Sub-Saharan
Africa, remains high (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[43] This is despite improvements in care. Several studies have shown
that transmission of enteric pathogens is higher during the rainy season. Some studies have found that higher
temperature was strongly associated with increased episodes of diarrhoeal disease in adults and children in Peru. The
WHO study, referred to earlier, projected that climate change would increase the burden of diarrhoeal diseases in
low-income regions by approximately 2 to 5% in 2020 (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[29]
Ground-level ozone
With high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that climate change would increase cardio-respiratory
morbidity and mortality associated with ground-level ozone.[27] Ground-level ozone is both naturally occurring and
is the primary constituent of urban smog (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[44] Ozone in smog is formed through chemical
reactions involving nitrogen oxides and other compounds. The reaction is a photochemical reaction, meaning that it
involves electromagnetic radiation, and occurs in the presence of bright sunshine and high temperatures. Exposure to
elevated concentrations of ozone is associated with increased hospital admissions for pneumonia, chronic obstructive
pulmonary disease, asthma, allergic rhinitis and other respiratory diseases, and with premature mortality.
Background levels of ground-level ozone have risen since pre-industrial times because of increasing emissions of
methane, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[45] This trend is expected to continue into
the mid-21st century.
Cold-waves
It is expected thatb climate change will bring some health benefits (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[27] It is expected that
these benefits will be outweighed by negative climate change effects.
Cold-waves continue to be a problem in northern latitudes, where very low temperatures can be reached in a few
hours and extend over long periods (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[46] Reductions in cold-deaths due to climate change
are projected to be greater than increases in heat-related deaths in the UK (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[32]

Water resources
In a literature assessment, Kundzewicz et al.. (2007:175) concluded, with high confidence, that:[47]
• the negative impacts of climate change on freshwater systems outweigh the benefits. All of the regions assessed in
the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Africa, Asia, Australia and New Zealand, Europe, Latin America, North
America, Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic), and small islands) showed an overall net negative impact of
climate change on water resources and freshwater ecosystems.
• Semi-arid and arid areas are particularly exposed to the impacts of climate change on freshwater. With very high
confidence, it was judged that many of these areas, e.g., the Mediterranean basin, western USA, southern Africa,
and north-eastern Brazil, would suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change.
Effects of global warming 260

Migration and conflict


An argument can be made that rising ethnic conflicts may be linked to competition over natural resources that are
increasingly scarce as a result of climate change (Wilbanks et al.., 2007:365).[48] According to a literature
assessment by Wilbanks et al.. (2007:365), other factors need to be taken into account. It was suggested that major
environmentally influenced conflicts in Africa have more to do with the relative abundance of resources, e.g., oil and
diamonds, than with resource scarcity. On this basis, Wilbanks et al.. (2007:365) suggested that predictions of future
conflicts due climate change should be viewed with caution.
With high confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007:787) predicted that stresses such as increased drought, water shortages,
and riverine and coastal flooding would affect many local and regional populations.[17] With medium confidence, it
was predicted that these stresses would lead, in some cases, to relocation within or between countries. This might
have the effect of exacerbating conflicts, and possibly impose migration pressures.
Zhang et al also concluded that climate change drives conflict.[49]

Aggregate impacts
Aggregating impacts adds up the total impact of climate change across sectors and/or regions (IPCC, 2007d:76).[4]
The impacts of climate change across world population will not be distributed evenly (Smith et al., 2001:957).[50]
IPCC (2007b:17) found that for increases in global mean temperature of less than 1-3 °C above 1990 levels, some
impacts were projected to produce benefits in some places and sectors, and produce costs in other places and
sectors.[9] For some low-latitude and polar regions, net costs were projected for small increases in temperature.
According to IPCC (2007b:17), a temperature increase of greater than about 2-3 °C would very likely result in all
regions either experiencing reductions in net benefits or increases in net costs.

Regions
Some regions are likely to be especially affected by climate change (IPCC, 2007d:9):[4]
• The Arctic, because of high rates of projected warming.
• Africa, especially in the sub-Saharan region. This is due to the continent's low capacity to adapt to climate change
and projected impacts.
• Small islands, due to high exposure of population and infrastructure at risk to sea-level rise and increased storm
surge.
• Asian megadeltas, due to large populations and high exposure to sea-level rise, storm surge and river flooding.
Within other areas, some people are particularly at risk, such as the poor, young children and the elderly.

Biological systems
With very high confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007:792) concluded that regional temperature trends were already
affecting species and ecosystems around the world.[17] In a literature assessment, Rosenzweig et al.. (2007:81)
concluded that over the last three decades, human-induced warming had likely had a discernable influence on many
physical and biological systems.[51]
Schneider et al.. (2007:792) concluded, with high confidence, that climate change would result in the extinction of
many species and a reduction in the diversity of ecosystems.
• Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity: With a warming of 3°C, relative to 1990 levels, it is likely that global
terrestrial vegetation would become a net source of carbon (Schneider et al.., 2007:792). With high confidence,
Schneider et al.. (2007:788) concluded that a global mean temperature increase of around 4°C (above the
1990-2000 level) by 2100 would lead to major extinctions around the globe.
Effects of global warming 261

• Marine ecosystems and biodiversity: With very high confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007:792) concluded that a
warming of 2°C above 1990 levels would result in mass mortality of coral reefs globally.
• Freshwater ecosystems: Above about a 4°C increase in global mean temperature by 2100 (relative to
1990-2000), Schneider et al.. (2007:789) concluded, with high confidence, that many freshwater species would
become extinct.

Abrupt or irreversible changes


Abrupt climate change
Abrupt climate change is defined as a large-scale change in the climate system that takes place over a few decades or
less, persists (or is anticipated to persist) for at least a few decades, and causes substantial disruptions in human and
natural systems (CCSP, 2008a).[52] There is the possibility of a rapid change in glaciers, ice sheets, and hence sea
level. Predictions of such a change are highly uncertain due to a lack of scientific understanding. Modeling of the
processes associated with a rapid ice sheet and glacier change could potentially increase future projections of sea
level rise.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the Earth's climate system,
characterized by a northward flow of warm, salty water in the upper layers of the Atlantic and a southward flow of
colder water in the deep Atlantic (CCSP, 2008b, p. 5).[53] Potential impacts associated with MOC changes include
reduced warming or (in the case of abrupt change) absolute cooling of northern high-latitude areas near Greenland
and north-western Europe, an increased warming of Southern Hemisphere high-latitudes, tropical drying, as well as
changes to marine ecosystems, terrestrial vegetation, oceanic CO2 uptake, oceanic oxygen concentrations, and shifts
in fisheries (Schneider et al., 2007).[54] According to a assessment by the US Climate Change Science Program
(CCSP, 2008b, p. 5), it is very likely that the strength of the AMOC will decrease over the course of the 21st century.
Warming is still expected to occur over most of the European region downstream of the North Atlantic Current in
response to increasing greenhouse gases, as well as over North America. Although it is very unlikely that the AMOC
will collapse in the 21st century, the potential consequences of such a collapse could be severe.
Irreversibilities
An irreversible change is one where that change, once set in motion, cannot be reversed, at least over some specified
timescale, e.g., centuries to millennia (Goldemberg et al., 1996, p. 22).[55] Climate change is likely to lead to some
irreversible impacts (IPCC, 2007d).[56] One example of a potentially irreversible impact of climate change is damage
to ecosystems.

Footnotes
The IPCC report that is referred to in this article uses specific and quantitative language to describe uncertainty
(Ahmad et al., 2001).[57] This language is intended to provide an indication of the level of confidence that IPCC
authors have about a particular finding. The qualitative language used to describe uncertainty has a quantitative scale
associated with it. The quantitative values for qualitative terms are intended to ensure that confidence levels are
interpreted correctly. The is because qualitative statements, e.g., using the word "likely," can be interpreted
differently in quantitative terms (Moss and Schneider, 2000, p. 44).[58]
Quantitative values for confidence statements made in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report are listed below (IPCC,
2007).[59] These quantitative values are subjective probabilities (see Ahmad et al., 2001, section 2.6.2) that reflect
the expert judgement of IPCC authors:
a
• Very high confidence: At least 9 out of 10 chance of being correct
b
• High confidence: About 8 out of 10 chance
c
• Medium confidence: About 5 out of 10 chance
Effects of global warming 262

d
• Low confidence: About 2 out of 10 chance
e
• Very low confidence: Less than a 1 out of 10 chance

Notes
[1] Smith, B.; Schneider, H.; Oppenheimer, M.; Yohe, W.; Hare, W.; Mastrandrea, D.; Patwardhan, A.; Burton, I. et al. (Mar 2009). "Assessing
dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "reasons for concern"". Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106 (11): 4133–4137. doi:10.1073/pnas.0812355106. ISSN 0027-8424.
PMC 2648893. PMID 19251662.
[2] In this article, the phrases "global warming" and "climate change" are used interchangeably.
[3] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "Summary for Policymakers" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg1/ en/ spm.
html). In Solomon 2007. .
[4] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007d). "Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III
to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team et al. (eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report. htm)"]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp. 104. .
Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[5] "IMPACTS: On the Threshold of Abrupt Climate Changes" (http:/ / newscenter. lbl. gov/ feature-stories/ 2008/ 09/ 17/
impacts-on-the-threshold-of-abrupt-climate-changes/ ). IMPACTS: On the Threshold of Abrupt Climate Changes. U.S. Department of
Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research. September 2008. . Retrieved 2008-10-14.
[6] Connor, Steve (September 2008). "Hundreds of methane 'plumes' discovered" (http:/ / www. independent. co. uk/ news/ science/
hundreds-of-methane-plumes-discovered-941456. html). Hundreds of methane 'plumes' discovered (London: The Independent). . Retrieved
2008-10-14.
[7] "Executive Summary" (http:/ / books. nap. edu/ openbook. php?record_id=10136& page=1) (PHP). Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable
Surprises. United States National Academy of Sciences. June 2002. . Retrieved 2007-05-07.
[8] NOAA (26 Jan 2009). "New Study Shows Climate Change Largely Irreversible" (http:/ / www. noaanews. noaa. gov/ stories2009/
20090126_climate. html). Press release. .
[9] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "Summary for Policymakers" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg2/
ar4-wg2-spm. pdf). In Parry 2007, pp. 7–22 (PDF). .
[10] Le Treut, H., et al.. "FAQ 1.2 What is the Relationship between Climate Change and Weather?" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg1/ en/ faq-1-2. html). In Solomon 2007. Historical Overview of Climate Change. .
[11] Karl 2009, ed. "Global Climate Change" (http:/ / downloads. globalchange. gov/ usimpacts/ pdfs/ Global. pdf) (PDF). p. 18. .
[12] IPCC, 2007d. SPM 2. Causes of change (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ syr/ en/ spms2. html)
[13] Karl 2009, ed. "Global Climate Change" (http:/ / downloads. globalchange. gov/ usimpacts/ pdfs/ Global. pdf) (PDF). p. 24. .
[14] Trenberth, K.E., et al.. "FAQ 3.3 Has there been a Change in Extreme Events like Heat Waves, Droughts, Floods and Hurricanes?" (http:/ /
www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg1/ en/ faq-3-3. html). In Solomon 2007. Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate
Change. .
[15] Solomon, S., et al.. "Table TS.4" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg1/ en/ tssts-3-5. html). In Solomon 2007. Technical
Summary. p. 52. .
[16] "Expect More Floods as Global Water Cycle Speeds Up" (http:/ / blogs. nationalgeographic. com/ blogs/ news/ chiefeditor/ 2010/ 10/
more-water-flooding-postel. html) blog by Sandra L. Postel, National Geographic Freshwater Fellow, based on "Satellite-based global-ocean
mass balance estimates of interannual variability and emerging trends in continental freshwater discharge" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ content/
early/ 2010/ 09/ 28/ 1003292107) research report by Tajdarul H. Syeda, et al, Published online before print October 4, 2010, doi:
10.1073/pnas.1003292107 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, posted on NatGeo NewsWatch October 8, 2010, "There is nearly
20 percent more freshwater flowing into the world's oceans than there was 10 years ago--a sign of climate change and a harbinger of more
flooding.", accessed October 9, 2010
[17] Schneider, S.H., et al.. "Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/
wg2/ en/ ch19. html). In Parry 2007, p. 781. .
[18] Caldeira, K. and M.E. Wickett (2003). "Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH" (http:/ / pangea. stanford. edu/ research/ Oceans/ GES205/
Caldeira_Science_Anthropogenic Carbon and ocean pH. pdf). Nature 425 (6956): 365–365. doi:10.1038/425365a. PMID 14508477. .
[19] Orr, James C.; et al. (2005). "Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms" (http:/
/ web. archive. org/ web/ 20080625100559/ http:/ / www. ipsl. jussieu. fr/ ~jomce/ acidification/ paper/ Orr_OnlineNature04095. pdf). Nature
437 (7059): 681–686. doi:10.1038/nature04095. PMID 16193043. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. ipsl. jussieu. fr/ ~jomce/
acidification/ paper/ Orr_OnlineNature04095. pdf) on 2008-06-25. .
[20] Raven, J. A. et al. (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide" (http:/ / www. royalsoc. ac. uk/
displaypagedoc. asp?id=13314). Royal Society, London, UK.. .
[21] Crowley, T. J.; North, G. R. (May 1988). "Abrupt Climate Change and Extinction Events in Earth History". Science 240 (4855): 996–1002.
doi:10.1126/science.240.4855.996. PMID 17731712.
[22] Shaffer, G.; Olsen, S. M.; Pedersen, J. O. P. (2009). "Long-term ocean oxygen depletion in response to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil
fuels". Nature Geoscience 2 (2): 105–109. doi:10.1038/ngeo420.
Effects of global warming 263

[23] Bindoff, N.L., J. Willebrand, V. Artale, A, Cazenave, J. Gregory, S. Gulev, K. Hanawa, C. Le Quéré, S. Levitus, Y. Nojiri, C.K. Shum, L.D.
Talley and A. Unnikrishnan. "5 Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/
wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter5. pdf). In Solomon 2007 (PDF). .
[24] Gille, Sarah T. (February 15, 2002). "Warming of the Southern Ocean Since the 1950s" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ full/
295/ 5558/ 1275). Science 295 (5558): 1275–7. doi:10.1126/science.1065863. PMID 11847337. .
[25] Easterling, W.E. et al.. "Food, fibre and forest products" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch5. html). In Parry
2007, pp. 273–313. .
[26] Confalonieri, U. et al.. "Human health" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch8. html). In Parry 2007,
pp. 391–431. .
[27] Confalonieri, U., B. Menne, R. Akhtar, K.L. Ebi, M. Hauengue, R.S. Kovats, B. Revich and A. Woodward (2007). Executive summary. In
(book chapter): Human health. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden
and C.E. Hanson, Eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch8s8-es. html). Print version: Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880107. . Retrieved 2010-05-27.
[28] Confalonieri et al., 2007, "8.2.3 Drought, nutrition and food security" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/
ch8s8-2-3. html)
[29] Confalonieri et al., 2007, "8.4.1.1 Global burden of disease study" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch8s8-4-1-1.
html)
[30] Confalonieri, U., B. Menne, R. Akhtar, K.L. Ebi, M. Hauengue, R.S. Kovats, B. Revich and A. Woodward (2007). 8.2.2 Wind, storms and
floods. In (book chapter): Human health. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II
to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der
Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch8s8-2-2. html). Print version: Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880107. . Retrieved 2010-05-27.
[31] Confalonieri et al., 2007, "8.2.1.1 Heatwaves" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch8s8-2-1-1. html)
[32] Confalonieri et al., 2007, "8.4.1.3 Heat- and cold-related mortality" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/
ch8s8-4-1-3. html)
[33] Confalonieri et al., 2007, "8.2.3.1 Drought and infectious disease" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch8s8-2-3-1.
html)
[34] Confalonieri et al., 2007, "8.2.6.3 Air pollutants from forest fires" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch8s8-2-6-3.
html)
[35] Confalonieri, U., B. Menne, R. Akhtar, K.L. Ebi, M. Hauengue, R.S. Kovats, B. Revich and A. Woodward (2007). 8.2.8 Vector-borne,
rodent-borne and other infectious diseases. In (book chapter): Human health. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (M.L.
Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/
ch8s8-2-8. html). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880107. . Retrieved
2010-05-27.
[36] Confalonieri, U., B. Menne, R. Akhtar, K.L. Ebi, M. Hauengue, R.S. Kovats, B. Revich and A. Woodward (2007). 8.2.8.1 Dengue. In (book
chapter): Human health. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and
C.E. Hanson, Eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch8s8-2-8-1. html). Print version: Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880107. . Retrieved 2010-05-27.
[37] Confalonieri, U., B. Menne, R. Akhtar, K.L. Ebi, M. Hauengue, R.S. Kovats, B. Revich and A. Woodward (2007). 8.2.8.2 Malaria. In (book
chapter): Human health. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and
C.E. Hanson, Eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch8s8-2-8-2. html). Print version: Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880107. . Retrieved 2010-05-27.
[38] Peter W. Gething, David L. Smith, Anand P. Patil, Andrew J. Tatem, Robert W. Snow & Simon I. Hay (20 May 2010). "Climate change and
the global malaria recession" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v465/ n7296/ abs/ nature09098. html). Nature (Nature) 465 (7296):
342–345. doi:10.1038/nature09098. PMC 2885436. PMID 20485434. .
[39] "Don’t sweat it: Development and public-health initiatives will matter much more to malaria than the climate will" (http:/ / www. economist.
com/ daily/ columns/ greenview/ displaystory. cfm?story_id=16160473& fsrc=nwl). The Economist. 2010-05-19. . Retrieved 2010-05-25.
[40] Confalonieri, U., B. Menne, R. Akhtar, K.L. Ebi, M. Hauengue, R.S. Kovats, B. Revich and A. Woodward (2007). 8.2.8.3 Other infectious
diseases. In (book chapter): Human health. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group
II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van
der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch8s8-2-8-3. html). Print version: Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880107. . Retrieved 2010-05-27.
[41] Confalonieri, U., B. Menne, R. Akhtar, K.L. Ebi, M. Hauengue, R.S. Kovats, B. Revich and A. Woodward (2007). 8.4.1.2 Malaria, dengue
and other infectious diseases. In (book chapter): Human health. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (M.L. Parry, O.F.
Effects of global warming 264

Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/
ch8s8-4-1-2. html). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880107. .
Retrieved 2010-05-27.
[42] Randall, D.A., R.A. Wood, S. Bony, R. Colman, T. Fichefet, J. Fyfe, V. Kattsov, A. Pitman, J. Shukla, J. Srinivasan, R.J. Stouffer, A. Sumi
and K.E. Taylor (2007). 8.2.1.3 Parametrizations. In (book chapter): Climate Models and Their Evaluation. In: Climate Change 2007: The
Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg1/ en/ ch8s8-2-1-3. html). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. This version: IPCC
website. ISBN 9780521880091. . Retrieved 2010-05-27.
[43] Confalonieri et al., 2007, "8.2.5 Water and disease" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch8s8-2-5. html)
[44] Confalonieri et al., 2007, "8.2.6 Air quality and disease" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch8s8-2-6. html)
[45] Confalonieri et al., 2007, "8.4.1.4 Urban air quality" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch8s8-4-1-4. html)
[46] Confalonieri et al., 2007, "8.2.1.2 Cold-waves" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch8s8-2-1-2. html)
[47] Kundzewicz Z.W. et al.. "Freshwater resources and their management" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch3.
html). In Parry 2007, pp. 173–210. .
[48] Wilbanks, T.J. et al.. "Industry, settlement and society" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch7. html). In Parry
2007, pp. 357–390. .
[49] Zhang, D.; Brecke, P.; Lee, H.; He, Y.; Zhang, J. (2007). "Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history".
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104 (49): 19214–19219. doi:10.1073/pnas.0703073104.
PMC 2148270. PMID 18048343.
[50] Smith, J.B., et al. (2001). "Vulnerability to Climate Change and Reasons for Concern: A Synthesis." (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm). In McCarthy, J.J., et al.. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge University Press. . Retrieved 2010-01-10.
[51] Rosenzweig, C. et al.. "Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch1. html). In Parry 2007, pp. 79–131. .
[52] CCSP (2008a) (PDF). Abrupt Climate Change: Summary and Findings (Brochure). A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program
and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (Clark, P.U., A.J. Weaver (coordinating lead authors), E. Brook, E.R. Cook, T.L.
Delworth, and K. Steffen (chapter lead authors)) (http:/ / downloads. climatescience. gov/ sap/ sap3-4/ sap3-4-brochure. pdf). U.S. Geological
Survey, Reston, VA. . Retrieved 2010-08-20.
[53] CCSP (2008b). Abrupt Climate Change. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change
Research (Clark, P.U., A.J. Weaver (coordinating lead authors), E. Brook, E.R. Cook, T.L. Delworth, and K. Steffen (chapter lead authors))
(http:/ / www. globalchange. gov/ publications/ reports/ scientific-assessments/ saps/ 301). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA. . Retrieved
2010-08-20.
[54] Schneider et al., 2007, 19.3.5.3 Possible changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch19s19-3-5-3. html), in Parry et al., 2007
[55] Goldemberg, J. et al. (1996). "Introduction: scope of the assessment" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ ipccreports/ sar/ wg_III/
ipcc_sar_wg_III_full_report. pdf). In J.P. Bruce et al. (PDF). Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change.
Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This version: Printed
by Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. Web version: IPCC website. doi:10.2277/0521568544.
ISBN 9780521568548. .
[56] IPCC, 2007d, “3.4 Risk of abrupt or irreversible changes” (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ syr/ en/ mains3-4. html)
[57] Ahmad, Q.K. and R.A. Warrick. Lead Authors: T.E. Downing, S. Nishioka, K.S. Parikh, C. Parmesan, S.H. Schneider, F. Toth, G. Yohe.
Contributing Authors: A.U. Ahmed, P. Ayton, B.B. Fitzharris, J.E. Hay, R.N. Jones, G. Morgan, R. Moss, W. North, G. Petschel-Held, R.
Richels. Review Editors: I. Burton and R. Kates (2001). 2.6. Characterizing Uncertainty and "Levels of Confidence" in Climate Assessment.
In: Chapter 2. Methods and Tools. In: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the
Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (J.J. McCarthy, O.F. Canziani, N.A. Leary, D.J. Dokken, and
K.S. White, Eds.) (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg2/ 103. htm). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and
New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: GRID-Arendal website (http:/ / www. grida. no/ ). ISBN 0521807689. . Retrieved 2010-05-31.
[58] Moss, R. and S. Schneider (July 2000) (PDF). Uncertainties. In: IPCC supporting material: guidance papers on the cross cutting issues of
the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC (R. Pachuari, T. Taniguchi and K. Tanaka, Eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ supporting-material/
guidance-papers-3rd-assessment. pdf). Global Industrial and Social Progress Research Institute (GISPRI), 2-1-1 Toranomon, Minato-ku,
1050001 Tokyo, Japan. ISBN 4998090801. . Retrieved 2010-05-31.
[59] IPCC (2007). F. Communication of uncertainty in the Working Group II Fourth Assessment. In: Foreword, Preface, and Introduction. In:
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds.) (http:/ /
www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ frontmattersf. html). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. This
version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880107. . Retrieved 2010-05-31.
Effects of global warming 265

Further reading
• Houghton, P.J.; Ding, Y.; Griggs, D.J. et al., eds (2001). Climate change 2001: the scientific basis: contribution
of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://
www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-80767-0.
• Karl, T.R., et al., ed (2009). Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (http://www.globalchange.
gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/download-the-report). Cambridge University Press.
ISBN 978-0-521-14407-0. Retrieved 2011-04-28.
• Parry, M.L., et al., ed (2007). Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability : contribution of
Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://
www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html). Cambridge University Press.
ISBN 0521880106.
• Solomon, S., et al., ed (2007). Climate change 2007 : the physical science basis : contribution of Working Group
I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.ipcc.ch/
publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html). Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0521705967.
• US National Research Council (2008). "Understanding and Responding to Climate Change" (http://
americasclimatechoices.org/climate_change_2008_final.pdf) (PDF). Board on Atmospheric Sciences and
Climate (http://dels.nas.edu/basc), US National Academy of Sciences. Retrieved 2011-04-28.
• US National Research Council (2008). "Ecological Impacts of Climate Change" (http://books.nap.edu/catalog.
php?record_id=12491). The National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001, USA. pp.
70. Retrieved 2010-03-13.

External links

Physical impacts
• "Climate Change" (http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/main_climate_change.php). World
Meteorological Organization.
• The IPCC Working Group I (WG I) website (http://www.ipcc-wg1.unibe.ch/). This body assesses the physical
scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change.

Social, economic and ecological impacts


• Climate change (http://www.un.org/esa/dsd/dsd_aofw_cc/cc_index.shtml) on the United Nations Economic
and Social Development (UNESD) Division for Sustainable Development website.
• The IPCC Working Group II (WG II) website (http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/) – This body assesses the
vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of
climate change, and options for adapting to it.

General
• List of United Nations Functional Commissions and Expert Bodies related to climate change (http://esa.un.org/
subindex/pgViewSites.asp?termCode=QB.25)
• IRIN, the humanitarian news and analysis service of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs:
"What climate change does" (http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=79563), "How climate change
works" (http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=79508), and "Gathering Storm - the humanitarian
impact of climate change" (http://www.irinnews.org/IndepthMain.aspx?IndepthId=73&ReportId=78246)
• Videos:
• "Educational Forum: Arctic Climate Impact" (http://video.google.com/
videoplay?docid=4119472365452589212). Panel discussion with James J. McCarthy, Professor at Harvard
Effects of global warming 266

University, and Author; Paul R. Epstein, M.D., instructor in medicine at Harvard Medical School; and Ross
Gelbspan, Pulitzer-prize winning journalist and author. Massachusetts School of Law.
• "How we know humans are changing the climate and Why climate change is a clear and present danger" (http:/
/climateprogress.org/2010/02/05/
videos-humans-are-changing-the-climate-global-warming-threat-chris-field/#more-18551). Interviews with
Christopher Field and Michael MacCracken. Christopher Field is the director of the Department of Global
Ecology at the Carnegie Institution of Washington, professor of biology and environmental earth system
science at Stanford University, and the Working Group II Co-Chair for the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. Michael MacCracken is the chief scientist for Climate Change Programs at the Climate
Institute and a co-author and contributing author for various chapters in the IPCC assessment reports. Climate
Progress website, February 5, 2010.

Abrupt climate change


An abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system is forced to transition to a new state at a rate that is
determined by the climate system itself, and which is more rapid than the rate of change of the external forcing.[1]
Past events include the end of the Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse,[2] Younger Dryas,[3] Dansgaard-Oeschger
events, and possibly also the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum.[4] The term is also used within the context of
global warming to describe sudden climate change that is detectable over the time-scale of a human lifetime. One
proposed reason for the observed abrupt climate change is that feedback loops within the climate system both
enhance small perturbations and cause a variety of stable states.[5]
Timescales of events described as 'abrupt' may vary dramatically. Changes recorded in the climate of Greenland at
the end of the Younger Dryas, as measured by ice-cores, imply a sudden warming of +10°C within a timescale of a
few years.[6] Other abrupt changes are the +4 °C on Greenland 11,270 years ago[7] or the abrupt +6 °C warming 22
000 years ago on Antarctica.[8] By contrast, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum may have initiated anywhere
between a few decades and several thousand years.

Definitions
According to the Committee on Abrupt Climate Change of the National Research Council[1] [9] :
There are essentially two definitions of abrupt climate change:
• In terms of physics, it is a transition of the climate system into a different mode on a time scale that is faster
than the responsible forcing.
• In terms of impacts, "an abrupt change is one that takes place so rapidly and unexpectedly that human or
natural systems have difficulty adapting to it".
These definitions are complementary: the former gives some insight into how abrupt climate change comes
about ; the latter explains why there is so much research devoted to it, why it inspires catastrophe movies, and
may even be the reason why you are reading this page.
Abrupt climate change 267

Current situation
The IPCC states that global warming "could lead to some effects that are abrupt or irreversible".[10]
In an article in Science, Alley et al. said "it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the
probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large
and potentially serious."[11]

Regional changes
Lenton et al.[12] investigated tipping elements in the climate system. These were regional effects of global warming,
some of which had abrupt onset and may therefore be regarded as abrupt climate change. They found that "Our
synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this
century under anthropogenic climate change."

Ocean effects
Global oceans have established
patterns of currents. Several potential
disruptions to this system of currents
have been identified as a result of
global warming:
• Increasing frequency of El Nino
events.[13] [14]
• Potential disruption to [15] the
thermohaline circulation, such as
that which may have occurred
during the Younger Dryas event.[16]
• Changes to the North Atlantic
oscillation[17] A summary of the path of the thermohaline circulation. Blue paths represent deep-water
currents, while red paths represent surface currents

Climate feedback effects


One source of abrupt climate change effects is a feedback process, in which a warming event causes a change which
leads to further warming. This can also apply to cooling. Example of such feedback processes are:
• Ice-albedo feedback, where the advance or retreat of ice cover alters the 'whiteness' or the earth, and its ability to
absorb the sun's energy.[18]
• The dying and burning of forests, as a result of global warming.[19]
Abrupt climate change 268

Past events
Several periods of abrupt climate change have been
identified in the paleoclimatic record. Notable
examples include:
• About 25 climate shifts, called Dansgaard-Oeschger
cycles, which have been identified in the ice core
record during the glacial period over the past
100,000 years. The most recent of these events was
the Younger Dryas which began 12,900 years ago
and moved back into a warm-and-wet climate
regime about 11,600 years ago.
• The Younger Dryas event, notably its sudden end. It
has been suggested that: "The extreme rapidity of The Younger Dryas period of abrupt climate change is named after
these changes in a variable that directly represents the Alpine flower, Dryas.
regional climate implies that the events at the end of
the last glaciation may have been responses to some kind of threshold or trigger in the North Atlantic climate
system."[20] A model for this event based on disruption to the thermohaline circulation has been supported by
other studies.[16]
• The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, timed at 55 million years ago, which may have been caused by the
clathrate gun effect,[21] although potential alternative mechanisms have been identified.[22] This was associated
with rapid ocean acidification[23]
• The Permian-Triassic Extinction Event, also known as the great dying, in which up to 95% of all species became
extinct, has been hypothesized to be related to a rapid change in global climate.[24] [25] Life on land took 30M
years to recover.[26]
• The Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse occurred 300 million years ago, at which time tropical rainforests were
devastated by climate change. The cooler, drier climate had an severe effect on the biodiversity of amphibians, the
primary form of vertebrate life on land.[2]
There are also abrupt climate changes associated with the catastrophic draining of glacial lakes. One example of this
is the 8.2 kiloyear event, which associated with the draining of Glacial Lake Agassiz.[27] Another example is the
Antarctic Cold Reversal, c. 14,500 years before present (BP), which is believed to have been caused by a meltwater
pulse from the Antarctic ice sheet. These rapid meltwater release events have been hypothesized as a cause for
Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles,[28]

Abrupt climate shifts since 1976


Had the 1997 El Niño lasted twice as long, the rain forests of the Amazon basin and Southeast Asia could have
quickly added much additional carbon dioxide to the air from burning and rotting,[29] with heat waves and extreme
weather quickly felt around the world (The "Burn Locally, Crash Globally" scenario.[30] )
Most abrupt climate shifts, however, are likely due to sudden circulation shifts, analogous to a flood cutting a new
river channel. The best-known examples are the several dozen shutdowns of the North Atlantic Ocean's Meridional
Overturning Circulation during the last ice age, affecting climate worldwide.[11] But there have been a series of less
dramatic abrupt climate shifts since 1976, along with some near misses.
• The circulation shift in the western Pacific in the winter of 1976-1977[31] proved to have much wider impacts.
• Since 1950, El Niňos had been weak and short, but La Niňas were often big and long, This pattern reversed after
1977.
Abrupt climate change 269

• Land temperatures had remained relatively trendless from 1950 to 1976, despite the CO2 rising from 310 to
332 ppm as fossil fuel emissions tripled. Then in 1977 there was a marked shift in observed global mean surface
temperature to a rising fever of about 2°C/century.[32]
• The expansion of the tropics from overheating is usually thought to be gradual, but the percentage of the land
surface in the two most extreme classifications of drought suddenly doubled in 1982 and stayed there until 1997
when it jumped to triple (after six years, it stepped down to double).[33] While their inceptions correlate with the
particularly large El Niňos of 1982 and 1997, the global drought steps far outlast the 13-month durations of those
El Niňos.
• There were near-misses for Burn Locally, Crash Globally in Amazonia in 1998, 2005, and 2007, each with higher
flammability than its predecessor.[34] [35]
• There have also been two occasions when the Atlantic's Meridional Overturning Circulation lost a crucial safety
factor. The Greenland Sea flushing at 75 °N shut down in 1978, recovering over the next decade.[36] Then the
second-largest flushing site, the Labrador Sea, shut down in 1997.[37] for ten years[38] While shutdowns
overlapping in time have not been seen during the fifty years of observation, previous total shutdowns had severe
worldwide climate consequences.[11]
This makes abrupt climate shifts more like a heart attack than like a chronic disease whose course can be
extrapolated.[30] Like heart attacks, some abrupt climate shifts are minor, some are catastrophic—and one cannot
predict which or when. The recent track record, however, is that there have been several sudden shifts and several
near-misses in each decade since 1976.

Consequential effects

K–T
Tr–J
P–Tr
Late D
O–S
Millions of years ago
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, labelled "P-Tr" here, is the most significant extinction event in this plot for marine genera.

Abrupt climate change has likely been the cause of wide ranging and severe effects:
• Rapid Ocean acidification,[23] which can harm marine life (such as corals).[39]
• Mass extinctions in the past, most notably the Permian-Triassic Extinction event (often referred to as the great
dying) and the Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse, have been suggested as a consequence of abrupt climate
change.[2] [40]
Abrupt climate change 270

References
[1] Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, National Research Council. (2002). "Definition of Abrupt Climate Change" (http:/ / books. nap. edu/
openbook. php?isbn=0309074347& page=14#pagetop). Abrupt climate change : inevitable surprises (http:/ / www. nap. edu/ catalog.
php?record_id=10136#toc). Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. ISBN 978-0-309-07434-6. .
[2] Sahney, S., Benton, M.J. & Falcon-Lang, H.J. (2010). "Rainforest collapse triggered Pennsylvanian tetrapod diversification in Euramerica"
(http:/ / geology. geoscienceworld. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 38/ 12/ 1079) (PDF). Geology 38: 1079–1082. .
[3] Broecker, W. S. (May 2006). "Geology. Was the Younger Dryas triggered by a flood?". Science 312 (5777): 1146–1148.
doi:10.1126/science.1123253. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 16728622.
[4] Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, Ocean Studies Board, Polar Research Board, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division
on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council. (2002). Abrupt climate change : inevitable surprises. Washington, D.C.: National
Academy Press. p. 108. ISBN 0-309-07434-7.
[5] Rial, J. � A.; Pielke Sr., R. A.; Beniston, M.; Claussen, M.; Canadell, J.; Cox, P.; Held, H.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N. et al. (2004).
"Nonlinearities, Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds within the Earth's Climate System" (http:/ / www. biology. duke. edu/ upe302/ pdf files/
jfr_nonlinear. pdf) (PDF). Climatic Change 65: 11–00. doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000037493.89489.3f. .
[6] Grachev, A.M.; Severinghaus, J.P. (2005). "A revised +10±4 °C magnitude of the abrupt change in Greenland temperature at the Younger
Dryas termination using published GISP2 gas isotope data and air thermal diffusion constants". Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (5-6): 513–9.
doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.10.016.
[7] Kobashi, T.; Severinghaus, J.P.; Barnola, J. (30 April 2008). "4 ± 1.5 °C abrupt warming 11,270 yr ago identified from trapped air in
Greenland ice". Earth and Planetary Science Letters 268 (3-4): 397–407. Bibcode 2008E&PSL.268..397K. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2008.01.032.
[8] Taylor, K.C.; White, J; Severinghaus, J; Brook, E; Mayewski, P; Alley, R; Steig, E; Spencer, M et al. (January 2004). "Abrupt climate change
around 22 ka on the Siple Coast of Antarctica". Quaternary Science Reviews 23 (1-2): 7–15. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.09.004.
[9] "What defines "abrupt" climate change?" (http:/ / www. ldeo. columbia. edu/ res/ pi/ arch/ definition. shtml). Lamont-Doherty Earth
Observatory. . Retrieved 2009-02-21.
[10] "Summary for Policymakers" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ syr/ ar4_syr_spm. pdf). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis
Report. IPCC. 17 November 2007. .
[11] Alley, B.; Marotzke, J.; Nordhaus, D.; Overpeck, T.; Peteet, M.; Pielke Ra, R.; Pierrehumbert, T.; Rhines, B. et al. (Mar 2003). "Abrupt
Climate Change" (http:/ / www. ecobb. dancingflames. org/ dancingflames/ EnvSci/ Articles/ EnvScipdffiles/ Climate Models/
AbruptClimateChange. pdf) (PDF). Science 299 (5615): 2005–2010. doi:10.1126/science.1081056. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 12663908. .
[12] Lenton, T. M.; Held, H.; Kriegler, E.; Hall, J. W.; Lucht, W.; Rahmstorf, S.; Schellnhuber, H. J. (Feb 2008). "Tipping elements in the Earth's
climate system" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=18258748) (Free full text). Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences 105 (6): 1786–1793. doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105. PMC 2538841. PMID 18258748. .
[13] Trenberth, K. E.; Hoar, T. J. (1997). "El Niño and climate change" (http:/ / www. cgd. ucar. edu/ cas/ Trenberth/ trenberth. pdf/ Trenberth&
Hoar97GL03092. pdf). Geophysical Research Letters 24 (23): 3057–3060. doi:10.1029/97GL03092. .
[14] Meehl, G. A.; Washington, W. M. (1996). "El Niño-like climate change in a model with increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations". Nature
382: 56–60. doi:10.1038/382056a0.
[15] Broecker, W. S. (1997). "Thermohaline Circulation, the Achilles Heel of Our Climate System: Will Man-Made CO2 Upset the Current
Balance?" (http:/ / www. ldeo. columbia. edu/ res/ pi/ arch/ docs/ broecker_1997. pdf). Science 278: 1582–1588.
doi:10.1126/science.278.5343.1582. .
[16] Manabe, S.; Stouffer, R. J. (1995). "Simulation of abrupt climate change induced by freshwater input to the North Atlantic Ocean" (http:/ /
www. gfdl. noaa. gov/ bibliography/ related_files/ sm9501. pdf). Nature 378: 165. doi:10.1038/378165a0. .
[17] Beniston, M.; Jungo, P. (2002). "Shifts in the distributions of pressure, temperature and moisture and changes in the typical weather patterns
in the Alpine region in response to the behavior of the North Atlantic Oscillation" (http:/ / doc. rero. ch/ lm.
php?url=1000,43,2,20050718135259-QT/ 1_bensiton_sdp. pdf). Theoretical and Applied Climatology 71 (1-2): 29–42.
doi:10.1007/s704-002-8206-7. .
[18] Comiso, J. C. (2002). "A rapidly declining perennial sea ice cover in the Arctic" (http:/ / www. ggy. bris. ac. uk/ staff/ personal/
JonathanBamber/ teaching/ Env change II/ comiso_grl. pdf). Geophysical Research Letters 29 (20): 17–11–11–4.
Bibcode 2002GeoRL..29t..17C. doi:10.1029/2002GL015650. .
[19] Malhi, Y.; Aragão, L. E. O. C.; Galbraith, D.; Huntingford, C.; Fisher, R.; Zelazowski, P.; Sitch, S.; McSweeney, C. et al. (Feb 2009).
"Special Feature: Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest" (http:/ / www.
pnas. org/ content/ early/ 2009/ 02/ 12/ 0804619106. full. pdf). PNAS 106 (49): 20610. doi:10.1073/pnas.0804619106. ISSN 0027-8424.
PMC 2791614. PMID 19218454. .
[20] Alley, R. B.; Meese, D. A.; Shuman, C. A.; Gow, A. J.; Taylor, K. C.; Grootes, P. M.; White, J. W. C.; Ram, M. et al. (1993). "Abrupt
increase in Greenland snow accumulation at the end of the Younger Dryas event" (http:/ / earthsciences. ucr. edu/ gcec_pages/ docs/ Alley et
al 1993-Nature-Dryas Snow Rates. pdf). Nature 362 (6420): 527–529. doi:10.1038/362527a0. .
[21] Farley, K. A.; Eltgroth, S. F. (2003). "An alternative age model for the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum using extraterrestrial 3He".
Earth and Planetary Science Letters 208: 135–148. Bibcode 2003E&PSL.208..135F. doi:10.1016/S0012-821X(03)00017-7.
[22] Pagani, M.; Caldeira, K.; Archer, D.; Zachos, C. (Dec 2006). "Atmosphere. An ancient carbon mystery". Science 314 (5805): 1556–1557.
doi:10.1126/science.1136110. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 17158314.
Abrupt climate change 271

[23] Zachos, J. C.; Röhl, U.; Schellenberg, S. A.; Sluijs, A.; Hodell, D. A.; Kelly, D. C.; Thomas, E.; Nicolo, M. et al. (Jun 2005). "Rapid
acidification of the ocean during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum.". Science 308 (5728): 1611–1615. doi:10.1126/science.1109004.
PMID 15947184.
[24] Benton, M. J.; Twitchet, R. J. (2003). "How to kill (almost) all life: the end-Permian extinction event" (http:/ / palaeo. gly. bris. ac. uk/
Benton/ reprints/ 2003TREEPTr. pdf). Trends in Ecology & Evolution 18 (7): 358–365. doi:10.1016/S0169-5347(03)00093-4. .
[25] Crowley, Tj; North, Gr (May 1988). "Abrupt Climate Change and Extinction Events in Earth History.". Science 240 (4855): 996–1002.
doi:10.1126/science.240.4855.996. PMID 17731712.
[26] Sahney, S. and Benton, M.J. (2008). "Recovery from the most profound mass extinction of all time" (http:/ / journals. royalsociety. org/
content/ qq5un1810k7605h5/ fulltext. pdf) (PDF). Proceedings of the Royal Society: Biological 275 (1636): 759–65.
doi:10.1098/rspb.2007.1370. PMC 2596898. PMID 18198148. .
[27] Alley, R. B.; Mayewski, P. A.; Sowers, T.; Stuiver, M.; Taylor, K. C.; Clark, P. U. (1997). "Holocene climatic instability: A prominent,
widespread event 8200 yr ago". Geology 25 (6): 483. doi:10.1130/0091-7613(1997)025<0483:HCIAPW>2.3.CO;2.
[28] Bond, G.C., Showers, W., Elliot, M., Evans, M., Lotti, R., Hajdas, I., Bonani, G., Johnson, S., (1999). "The North Atlantic's 1–2 kyr climate
rhythm: relation to Heinrich events, Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles and the little ice age" (http:/ / rivernet. ncsu. edu/ courselocker/ PaleoClimate/
Bond et al 1999 N. Atlantic 1-2. PDF). In Clark, P.U., Webb, R.S., Keigwin, L.D.. Mechanisms of Global Change at Millennial Time Scales.
Geophysical Monograph. American Geophysical Union, Washington DC. pp. 59–76. ISBN 0-87590-033-X. .
[29] doi: 10.1007/s10584-005-8074-6
This citation will be automatically completed in the next few minutes. You can jump the queue or expand by hand (http:/ / en. wikipedia. org/
wiki/ Template:cite_doi/ _10. 1007. 2fs10584-005-8074-6?preload=Template:Cite_doi/ preload& editintro=Template:Cite_doi/ editintro&
action=edit)
[30] Calvin, William H. (2008). Global fever: How to treat climate change (http:/ / www. williamcalvin. org/ bk14). University of Chicago Press.
.
[31] Miller, AJ; Cayan DR, Barnett TP, Oberhuber JM (May 1994). "The 1976-77 climate shift of the Pacific Ocean." (http:/ / meteora. ucsd.
edu/ ~miller/ papers/ shift. html). Oceanography 7: 996–1002. .
[32] Thompson, D.; Kennedy, J.; Wallace, J.; Jones, P. (2008). "A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean
surface temperature". Nature 453 (7195): 646–649. doi:10.1038/nature06982. PMID 18509442.
[33] Dai A, Trenberth KE, Qian T (2004). "A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: Relationship with soil moisture
and effects of surface warming." (http:/ / www. cgd. ucar. edu/ cas/ adai/ papers/ Dai_pdsi_paper. pdf). J Hydrometeorology 5: 1117–1130.
doi:10.1175/JHM-386.1. .
[34] Santilli, M. �R.; Moutinho, P.; Schwartzman, S.; Nepstad, D.; Curran, L.; Nobre, C. (2005). "Tropical Deforestation and the Kyoto
Protocol". Climatic Change 71 (3): 267. doi:10.1007/s10584-005-8074-6.
[35] Phillips, O.; Aragão, L.; Lewis, S.; Fisher, J.; Lloyd, J.; López-González, G.; Malhi, Y.; Monteagudo, A. et al. (2009). "Drought sensitivity
of the Amazon rainforest". Science 323 (5919): 1344–1347. doi:10.1126/science.1164033. PMID 19265020.
[36] Schlosser P, Bönisch G, Rhein M, Bayer R (1991). "Reduction of deepwater formation in the Greenland Sea during the 1980s: Evidence
from tracer data." (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ reprint/ 251/ 4997/ 1054. pdf). Science 251 (4997): 1054–1056.
doi:10.1126/science.251.4997.1054. PMID 17802088. .
[37] Rhines, P. B. (2006). "Sub-Arctic oceans and global climate". Weather 61 (4): 109–118. doi:10.1256/wea.223.05.
[38] Våge, K.; Pickart, R. S.; Thierry, V.; Reverdin, G.; Lee, C. M.; Petrie, B.; Agnew, T. A.; Wong, A. et al. (2008). "Surprising return of deep
convection to the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean in winter 2007–2008". Nature Geoscience 2 (1): 67. doi:10.1038/ngeo382.
[39] Fabry, V. J.; Seibel, B. A.; Feely, R. A.; Orr, J. C. (2008). "Impacts of ocean acidification on marine fauna and ecosystem processes" (http:/ /
icesjms. oxfordjournals. org/ cgi/ reprint/ 65/ 3/ 414. pdf). ICES Journal of Marine Science 65 (3): 414–432. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsn048. .
[40] Crowley, T. J.; North, G. R. (May 1988). "Abrupt Climate Change and Extinction Events in Earth History". Science 240 (4855): 996–1002.
doi:10.1126/science.240.4855.996. PMID 17731712.

Further reading
• Parson, Edward; Dessler, Andrew Emory (2006). The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change: A Guide to
the Debate (http://www.cambridge.org/us/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521539418). Cambridge, UK:
Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-53941-2.
• Alley, Richard B. (2000). The Two-Mile Time Machine: Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and Our Future.
Princeton, N.J: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-00493-5.
• Calvin, William H. (2002). A Brain for All Seasons: Human Evolution and Abrupt Climate Change (http://
WilliamCalvin.com/BrainForAllSeasons/). London and Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
ISBN 0-226-09201-1.
• Calvin, William H. (2008). Global fever: How to treat climate change (http://www.williamcalvin.org/bk14).
Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press.
Abrupt climate change 272

• Cox, John (2005). Climate Crash: Abrupt Climate Change and What It Means for Our Future. Washington, D.C:
Joseph Henry Press. ISBN 0-309-09312-0.
• Drummond, Carl N.; Wilkinson, Bruce H. (2006). "Interannual Variability in Climate Data". Journal of Geology
114: 325–39. Bibcode 2006JG....114..325D. doi:10.1086/500992.
• Clark, P.U., A.J. Weaver (coordinating lead authors), E. Brook, E.R. Cook, T.L. Delworth, and K. Steffen
(chapter lead authors). (2008). "Abrupt Climate Change. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program
and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research." (http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-4/
final-report/default.htm#finalreport). Reston, VA: U.S. Geological Survey. Retrieved 2009-08-11.
• Schwartz, Peter; Randall, Doug (October 2003). "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for
United States National Security" (http://www.climate.org/PDF/clim_change_scenario.pdf).

External links
• Abrupt Climate Change Information from the Ocean & Climate Change Institute (http://www.whoi.edu/page.
do?pid=12455), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
• Newest reports on US EPA website (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/)
• U.S. Global Change Research Program, Abrupt Climate Change (http://www.globalchange.gov/component/
content/article/67-themes/151-abrutp-climate-change)

Climate change and agriculture


Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take place on a global scale.[1] Global
warming is projected to have significant impacts on conditions affecting agriculture, including temperature, carbon
dioxide, glacial run-off, precipitation and the interaction of these elements.[2] These conditions determine the
carrying capacity of the biosphere to produce enough food for the human population and domesticated animals. The
overall effect of climate change on agriculture will depend on the balance of these effects. Assessment of the effects
of global climate changes on agriculture might help to properly anticipate and adapt farming to maximize
agricultural production.[2]
Climate change and agriculture 273

At the same time, agriculture has been


shown to produce significant effects on
climate change, primarily through the
production and release of greenhouse
gases such as carbon dioxide, methane,
and nitrous oxide, but also by altering
the Earth's land cover, which can
change its ability to absorb or reflect
heat and light, thus contributing to
radiative forcing. Land use change
such as deforestation and
desertification, together with use of
fossil fuels, are the major
anthropogenic sources of carbon
dioxide; agriculture itself is the major
contributor to increasing methane and
nitrous oxide concentrations in earth's
atmosphere.[3]

Impact of climate change


on agriculture
Despite technological advances, such as improved varieties, genetically modified organisms, and irrigation systems,
weather is still a key factor in agricultural productivity, as well as soil properties and natural communities. The effect
of climate on agriculture is related to variabilities in local climates rather than in global climate patterns. The Earth's
average surface temperature has increased by 1 degree F in just over the last century. Consequently, agronomists
consider any assessment has to be individually consider each local area.
On the other hand, agricultural trade has grown in recent years, and now provides significant amounts of food, on a
national level to major importing countries, as well as comfortable income to exporting ones. The international
aspect of trade and security in terms of food implies the need to also consider the effects of climate change on a
global scale.
A study published in Science suggests that, due to climate change, "southern Africa could lose more than 30% of its
main crop, maize, by 2030. In South Asia losses of many regional staples, such as rice, millet and maize could top
10%".[4] [5]
The 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report concluded that the poorest countries would be hardest hit, with reductions
in crop yields in most tropical and sub-tropical regions due to decreased water availability, and new or changed
insect pest incidence. In Africa and Latin America many rainfed crops are near their maximum temperature
tolerance, so that yields are likely to fall sharply for even small climate changes; falls in agricultural productivity of
up to 30% over the 21st century are projected. Marine life and the fishing industry will also be severely affected in
some places.
Climate change induced by increasing greenhouse gases is likely to affect crops differently from region to region.
For example, average crop yield is expected to drop down to 50% in Pakistan according to the UKMO scenario
whereas corn production in Europe is expected to grow up to 25% in optimum hydrologic conditions.
More favourable effects on yield tend to depend to a large extent on realization of the potentially beneficial effects of
carbon dioxide on crop growth and increase of efficiency in water use. Decrease in potential yields is likely to be
caused by shortening of the growing period, decrease in water availability and poor vernalization.
Climate change and agriculture 274

In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways :
• productivity, in terms of quantity and quality of crops
• agricultural practices, through changes of water use (irrigation) and agricultural inputs such as herbicides,
insecticides and fertilizers
• environmental effects, in particular in relation of frequency and intensity of soil drainage (leading to nitrogen
leaching), soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity
• rural space, through the loss and gain of cultivated lands, land speculation, land renunciation, and hydraulic
amenities.
• adaptation, organisms may become more or less competitive, as well as humans may develop urgency to develop
more competitive organisms, such as flood resistant or salt resistant varieties of rice.
They are large uncertainties to uncover, particularly because there is lack of information on many specific local
regions, and include the uncertainties on magnitude of climate change, the effects of technological changes on
productivity, global food demands, and the numerous possibilities of adaptation.
Most agronomists believe that agricultural production will be mostly affected by the severity and pace of climate
change, not so much by gradual trends in climate. If change is gradual, there may be enough time for biota
adjustment. Rapid climate change, however, could harm agriculture in many countries, especially those that are
already suffering from rather poor soil and climate conditions, because there is less time for optimum natural
selection and adaption.

Projections
Schneider et al.. (2007:787) assessed the literature on key vulnerabilities to climate change.[6] With low to medium
confidence, they concluded that for about a 1 to 3°C global mean temperature increase (by 2100, relative to the
1990-2000 average level) there would be productivity decreases for some cereals in low latitudes, and productivity
increases in high latitudes. With medium confidence, global production potential was predicted to:
• increase up to around 3°C,
• very likely decrease above about 3 to 4°C.
Most of the studies on global agriculture assessed by Schneider et al.. (2007:790) had not incorporated a number of
critical factors, including changes in extreme events, or the spread of pests and diseases. Studies had also not
considered the development of specific practices or technologies to aid adaptation.

Regional
• Africa:
• Africa's geography makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change, and seventy per cent of the population
rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. Tanzania's official report on climate change suggests that the
areas that usually get two rainfalls in the year will probably get more, and those that get only one rainy season
will get far less. The net result is expected to be that 33% less maize—the country's staple crop—will be
grown.[7] Alongside other factors, regional climate change - in particular, reduced precipitation - is thought to
have contributed to the conflict in Darfur.[8] The combination of decades of drought, desertification and
overpopulation are among the causes of the conflict, because the Baggara Arab nomads searching for water
have to take their livestock further south, to land mainly occupied by farming peoples.[9]
• With high confidence, IPCC (2007:13) concluded that climate variability and change would severely
compromise agricultural production and access to food.[10]
• Asia: With medium confidence, IPCC (2007:13) projected that by the mid-21st century, in East and Southeast
Asia, crop yields could increase up to 20%, while in Central and South Asia, yields could decrease by up to 30%.
Taken together, the risk of hunger was projected to remain very high in several developing countries. More
detailed analysis of rice yields by the International Rice Research Institute forecast 20% reduction in yields over
Climate change and agriculture 275

the region per degree Celsius of temperature rise. Rice becomes sterile if exposed to temperatures above 35
degrees for more than one hour during flowering and consequently produces no grain.
• Australia and New Zealand: Hennessy et al.. (2007:509) assessed the literature for this region.[11] They
concluded that without further adaptation to climate change, projected impacts would likely be substantial: By
2030, production from agriculture and forestry was projected to decline over much of southern and eastern
Australia, and over parts of eastern New Zealand; In New Zealand, initial benefits were projected close to major
rivers and in western and southern areas. Hennessy et al.. (2007:509) placed high confidence in these projections.
• Europe: With high confidence, IPCC (2007:14) projected that in Southern Europe, climate change would reduce
crop productivity. In Central and Eastern Europe, forest productivity was expected to decline. In Northern
Europe, the initial effect of climate change was projected to increase crop yields.
• Latin America: With high confidence, IPCC (2007:14) projected that in drier areas of Latin America,
productivity of some important crops would decrease and livestock productivity decline, with adverse
consequences for food security. In temperate zones, soybean yields were projected to increase.
• North America:
• According to a paper by Deschenes and Greenstone (2006), predicted increases in temperature and
precipitation will have virtually no effect on the most important crops in the US.[12]
• With high confidence, IPCC (2007:14-15) projected that over the first few decades of this century, moderate
climate change would increase aggregate yields of rain-fed agriculture by 5–20%, but with important
variability among regions. Major challenges were projected for crops that are near the warm end of their
suitable range or which depend on highly utilized water resources.
• Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic):
• For the Guardian newspaper, Brown (2005) reported on how climate change had affected agriculture in
Iceland. Rising temperatures had made the widespread sowing of barley possible, which had been untenable
twenty years ago. Some of the warming was due to a local (possibly temporary) effect via ocean currents from
the Caribbean, which had also affected fish stocks.[13]
• Anisimov et al.. (2007:655) assessed the literature for this region.[14] With medium confidence, they concluded
that the benefits of a less severe climate were dependent on local conditions. One of these benefits was judged
to be increased agricultural and forestry opportunities.
• Small islands: In a literature assessment, Mimura et al.. (2007:689) concluded, with high confidence, that
subsistence and commercial agriculture would very likely be adversely affected by climate change.[15]

Shortage in grain production


Between 1996 and 2003, grain production has stabilized slightly over
1800 millions of tons. In 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003, grain stocks have
been dropping, resulting in a global grain harvest that was short of
consumption by 93 millions of tons in 2003.
The Earth's average temperature has been rising since the late 1970s,
with nine of the 10 warmest years on record occurring since 1995.[17]
In 2002, India and the United States suffered sharp harvest reductions
because of record temperatures and drought. In 2003 Europe suffered
very low rainfall throughout spring and summer, and a record level of Crops such as these sunflowers can be affected by
[16]
heat damaged most crops from the United Kingdom and France in the severe drought conditions in Australia.
Western Europe through Ukraine in the East. Bread prices have been
rising in several countries in the region. (see w:fr:canicule 2003).

Poverty impacts
Climate change and agriculture 276

Researchers at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) have investigated the potential impacts climate change
could have on agriculture, and how this would affect attempts at alleviating poverty in the developing world.[18]
They argued that the effects from moderate climate change are likely to be mixed for developing countries.
However, the vulnerability of the poor in developing countries to short term impacts from climate change, notably
the increased frequency and severity of adverse weather events is likely to have a negative impact. This, they say,
should be taken into account when defining agricultural policy.[18]

Crop development models


Models for climate behavior are frequently inconclusive. In order to further study effects of global warming on
agriculture, other types of models, such as crop development models, yield prediction, quantities of water or
fertilizer consumed, can be used. Such models condense the knowledge accumulated of the climate, soil, and effects
observed of the results of various agricultural practices. They thus could make it possible to test strategies of
adaptation to modifications of the environment.
Because these models are necessarily simplifying natural conditions (often based on the assumption that weeds,
disease and insect pests are controlled), it is not clear whether the results they give will have an in-field reality.
However, some results are partly validated with an increasing number of experimental results.
Other models, such as insect and disease development models based on climate projections are also used (for
example simulation of aphid reproduction or septoria (cereal fungal disease) development).
Scenarios are used in order to estimate climate changes effects on crop development and yield. Each scenario is
defined as a set of meteorological variables, based on generally accepted projections. For example, many models are
running simulations based on doubled carbon dioxide projections, temperatures raise ranging from 1°C up to 5°C,
and with rainfall levels an increase or decrease of 20%. Other parameters may include humidity, wind, and solar
activity. Scenarios of crop models are testing farm-level adaptation, such as sowing date shift, climate adapted
species (vernalisation need, heat and cold resistance), irrigation and fertilizer adaptation, resistance to disease. Most
developed models are about wheat, maize, rice and soybean.

Temperature potential effect on growing period


Duration of crop growth cycles are above all, related to temperature. An increase in temperature will speed up
development. In the case of an annual crop, the duration between sowing and harvesting will shorten (for example,
the duration in order to harvest corn could shorten between one and four weeks). The shortening of such a cycle
could have an adverse effect on productivity because senescence would occur sooner.

Effect of elevated carbon dioxide on crops


Carbon dioxide is essential to plant growth. Rising CO2 concentration in the atmosphere can have both positive and
negative consequences.
Increased CO2 is expected to have positive physiological effects by increasing the rate of photosynthesis. Currently,
the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 380 parts per million. In comparison, the amount of oxygen is
210,000 ppm. This means that often plants may be starved of carbon dioxide, due to the enzyme that fixes CO2,
rubisco also fixes oxygen in the process of photorespiration. The effects of an increase in carbon dioxide would be
higher on C3 crops (such as wheat) than on C4 crops (such as maize), because the former is more susceptible to
carbon dioxide shortage. Studies have shown that increased CO2 leads to fewer stomata developing on plants[19]
which leads to reduced water usage.[20] Under optimum conditions of temperature and humidity, the yield increase
could reach 36%, if the levels of carbon dioxide are doubled.
Further, few studies have looked at the impact of elevated carbon dioxide concentrations on whole farming systems.
Most models study the relationship between CO2 and productivity in isolation from other factors associated with
Climate change and agriculture 277

climate change, such as an increased frequency of extreme weather events, seasonal shifts, and so on.
In 2005, the Royal Society in London concluded that the purported benefits of elevated carbon dioxide
concentrations are “likely to be far lower than previously estimated” when factors such as increasing ground-level
ozone are taken into account."[21]

Effect on quality
According to the IPCC's TAR, "The importance of climate change impacts on grain and forage quality emerges from
new research. For rice, the amylose content of the grain--a major determinant of cooking quality--is increased under
elevated CO2" (Conroy et al., 1994). Cooked rice grain from plants grown in high-CO2 environments would be
firmer than that from today's plants. However, concentrations of iron and zinc, which are important for human
nutrition, would be lower (Seneweera and Conroy, 1997). Moreover, the protein content of the grain decreases under
combined increases of temperature and CO2 (Ziska et al., 1997)."[22] Studies using FACE have shown that increases
in CO2 lead to decreased concentrations of micronutrients in crop plants.[23] This may have knock-on effects on
other parts of ecosystems as herbivores will need to eat more food to gain the same amount of protein.[24]
Studies have shown that higher CO2 levels lead to reduced plant uptake of nitrogen (and a smaller number showing
the same for trace elements such as zinc) resulting in crops with lower nutritional value.[25] [26] This would primarily
impact on populations in poorer countries less able to compensate by eating more food, more varied diets, or
possibly taking supplements.
Reduced nitrogen content in grazing plants has also been shown to reduce animal productivity in sheep, which
depend on microbes in their gut to digest plants, which in turn depend on nitrogen intake.[25]

Agricultural surfaces and climate changes


Climate change may increase the amount of arable land in high-latitude region by reduction of the amount of frozen
lands. A 2005 study reports that temperature in Siberia has increased three degree Celsius in average since 1960
(much more than the rest of the world).[27] However, reports about the impact of global warming on Russian
agriculture[28] indicate conflicting probable effects : while they expect a northward extension of farmable lands,[29]
they also warn of possible productivity losses and increased risk of drought.[30]
Sea levels are expected to get up to one meter higher by 2100, though this projection is disputed. A rise in the sea
level would result in an agricultural land loss, in particular in areas such as South East Asia. Erosion, submergence
of shorelines, salinity of the water table due to the increased sea levels, could mainly affect agriculture through
inundation of low-lying lands.
Low lying areas such as Bangladesh, India and Vietnam will experience major loss of rice crop if sea levels are
expected to rise by the end of the century. Vietnam for example relies heavily on its southern tip, where the Mekong
Delta lies, for rice planting. Any rise in sea level of no more than a meter will drown several km2. of rice paddies,
rendering Vietnam incapable of producing its main staple and export of rice.[31]

Erosion and fertility


The warmer atmospheric temperatures observed over the past decades are expected to lead to a more vigorous
hydrological cycle, including more extreme rainfall events. Erosion and soil degradation is more likely to occur. Soil
fertility would also be affected by global warming. However, because the ratio of carbon to nitrogen is a constant, a
doubling of carbon is likely to imply a higher storage of nitrogen in soils as nitrates, thus providing higher fertilizing
elements for plants, providing better yields. The average needs for nitrogen could decrease, and give the opportunity
of changing often costly fertilisation strategies.
Due to the extremes of climate that would result, the increase in precipitations would probably result in greater risks
of erosion, whilst at the same time providing soil with better hydration, according to the intensity of the rain. The
possible evolution of the organic matter in the soil is a highly contested issue: while the increase in the temperature
Climate change and agriculture 278

would induce a greater rate in the production of minerals, lessening the soil organic matter content, the atmospheric
CO2 concentration would tend to increase it.

Potential effects of global climate change on pests, diseases and weeds


A very important point to consider is that weeds would undergo the same acceleration of cycle as cultivated crops,
and would also benefit from carbonaceous fertilization. Since most weeds are C3 plants, they are likely to compete
even more than now against C4 crops such as corn. However, on the other hand, some results make it possible to
think that weedkillers could gain in effectiveness with the temperature increase.
Global warming would cause an increase in rainfall in some areas, which would lead to an increase of atmospheric
humidity and the duration of the wet seasons. Combined with higher temperatures, these could favor the
development of fungal diseases. Similarly, because of higher temperatures and humidity, there could be an increased
pressure from insects and disease vectors.

Glacier retreat and disappearance


The continued retreat of glaciers will have a number of different quantitative impacts. In areas that are heavily
dependent on water runoff from glaciers that melt during the warmer summer months, a continuation of the current
retreat will eventually deplete the glacial ice and substantially reduce or eliminate runoff. A reduction in runoff will
affect the ability to irrigate crops and will reduce summer stream flows necessary to keep dams and reservoirs
replenished.
Approximately 2.4 billion people live in the drainage basin of the Himalayan rivers.[32] India, China, Pakistan,
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar could experience floods followed by severe droughts in coming
decades.[33] In India alone, the Ganges provides water for drinking and farming for more than 500 million people.[34]
[35]
The west coast of North America, which gets much of its water from glaciers in mountain ranges such as the
Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada, also would be affected.[36]

Ozone and UV-B


Some scientists think agriculture could be affected by any decrease in stratospheric ozone, which could increase
biologically dangerous ultraviolet radiation B. Excess ultraviolet radiation B can directly effect plant physiology and
cause massive amounts of mutations, and indirectly through changed pollinator behavior, though such changes are
simple to quantify.[37] However, it has not yet been ascertained whether an increase in greenhouse gases would
decrease stratospheric ozone levels.
In addition, a possible effect of rising temperatures is significantly higher levels of ground-level ozone, which would
substantially lower yields.[38]

ENSO effects on agriculture


ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) will affect monsoon patterns more intensely in the future as climate change
warms up the ocean's water. Crops that lie on the equatorial belt or under the tropical Walker circulation, such as
rice, will be affected by varying monsoon patterns and more unpredictable weather. Scheduled planting and
harvesting based on weather patterns will become less effective.
Areas such as Indonesia where the main crop consists of rice will be more vulnerable to the increased intensity of
ENSO effects in the future of climate change. University of Washington professor, David Battisti, researched the
effects of future ENSO patterns on the Indonesian rice agriculture using [IPCC]'s 2007 annual report[39] and 20
different logistical models mapping out climate factors such as wind pressure, sea-level, and humidity, and found
that rice harvest will experience a decrease in yield. Bali and Java, which holds 55% of the rice yields in Indonesia,
will be likely to experience 9-10% probably of delayed monsoon patterns, which prolongs the hungry season.
Climate change and agriculture 279

Normal planting of rice crops begin in October and harevest by January. However, as climate change affects ENSO
and consequently delays planting, harvesting will be late and in drier conditions, resulting in less potential yields.[40]

Impact of agriculture on climate change


The agricultural sector is a driving force in the gas emissions and land use effects thought to cause climate change. In
addition to being a significant user of land and consumer of fossil fuel, agriculture contributes directly to greenhouse
gas emissions through practices such as rice production and the raising of livestock;[41] according to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the three main causes of the increase in greenhouse gases observed
over the past 250 years have been fossil fuels, land use, and agriculture.[42]

Land use
Agriculture contributes to greenhouse gas increases through land use in four main ways:
• CO2 releases linked to deforestation
• Methane releases from rice cultivation
• Methane releases from enteric fermentation in cattle
• Nitrous oxide releases from fertilizer application
Together, these agricultural processes comprise 54% of methane emissions, roughly 80% of nitrous oxide emissions,
and virtually all carbon dioxide emissions tied to land use.[1]
The planet's major changes to land cover since 1750 have resulted from deforestation in temperate regions: when
forests and woodlands are cleared to make room for fields and pastures, the albedo of the affected area increases,
which can result in either warming or cooling effects, depending on local conditions.[43] Deforestation also affects
regional carbon reuptake, which can result in increased concentrations of CO2, the dominant greenhouse gas.[44]
Land-clearing methods such as slash and burn compound these effects by burning biomatter, which directly releases
greenhouse gases and particulate matter such as soot into the air.

Livestock
Livestock and livestock-related activities such as deforestation and increasingly fuel-intensive farming practices are
responsible for over 18% of human-made greenhouse gas emissions, including:
• 9% of global carbon dioxide emissions
• 35-40% of global methane emissions (chiefly due to enteric fermentation and manure)
• 64% of global nitrous oxide emissions (chiefly due to fertilizer use.[45] )
Livestock activities also contribute disproportionately to land-use effects, since crops such as corn and alfalfa are
cultivated in order to feed the animals.
Worldwide, livestock production occupies 70% of all land used for agriculture, or 30% of the land surface of the
Earth.[46]
Climate change and agriculture 280

References
[1] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc/ emission/ 076.
htm) retrieved 26 June 2007
[2] Fraser, E. 2008. “Crop yield and climate change” (http:/ / www. vulnerablefoodsystems. com), Retrieved on 2009-09-14.
[3] UN Report on Climate Change (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ SPM2feb07. pdf) retrieved 25 June 2007 Archived (http:/ / web. archive. org/
20070621143239/ http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ SPM2feb07. pdf) June 21, 2007 at the Wayback Machine.
[4] "Climate 'could devastate crops'" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 7220807. stm). BBC News Online. 31 January 2008. .
[5] Lobell DB, Burke MB, Tebaldi C, Mastrandrea MD, Falcon WP, Naylor RL (2008). "Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food
security in 2030". Science 319 (5863): 607–10. doi:10.1126/science.1152339. PMID 18239122.
[6] Schneider, S.H. et al. (2007). "Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
[M.L. Parry et al. (eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. pp. 779–810. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[7] John Vidal (2005-06-30). "In the land where life is on hold" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ climatechange/ story/ 0,12374,1517935,00.
html). The Guardian. . Retrieved 2008-01-22.
[8] "Climate change - only one cause among many for Darfur conflict" (http:/ / www. irinnews. org/ Report. aspx?ReportId=72985). IRIN.
2007-06-28. . Retrieved 2008-01-22.
[9] Nina Brenjo (2007-07-30). "Looking to water to find peace in Darfur" (http:/ / www. alertnet. org/ db/ blogs/ 1265/ 2007/ 06/ 30-100806-1.
htm). Reuters AlertNet. . Retrieved 2008-01-22.
[10] IPCC (2007). "Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working
Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M.L. Parry et al. (eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A..
pp. 7–22. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[11] Hennessy, K. et al. (2007). "Australia and New Zealand. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of
Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M.L. Parry et al. (eds.) (http:/ / www.
ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y.,
U.S.A.. pp. 507–540. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[12] "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Profits and Random Fluctuations in Weather" (http:/ / ideas. repec.
org/ p/ fem/ femwpa/ 2006. 6. html). .
[13] Paul Brown (2005-06-30). "Frozen assets" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ climatechange/ story/ 0,12374,1517939,00. html). The Guardian.
. Retrieved 2008-01-22.
[14] Anisimov, O.A. et al. (2007). "Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic). In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M.L. Parry et al.
(eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.,
and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. pp. 653–685. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[15] Mimura, N. et al. (2007). "Small islands. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group
II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M.L. Parry et al. (eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A..
pp. 687–716. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[16] Australian Drought and Climate Change (http:/ / www. lilith-ezine. com/ articles/ environmental/ Australian-Drought. html), retrieved on
June 7th 2007.
[17] NOAA (2006-01-30). "NOAA reports 2005 global temperature similar to 1998 record warm year" (http:/ / www. publicaffairs. noaa. gov/
releases2006/ jan06/ noaa06-013. html). Press release. . Retrieved 2007-07-26.
[18] "Climate change, agricultural policy and poverty reduction – how much do we know?" (http:/ / www. odi. org. uk/ resources/ details.
asp?id=1231& title=climate-change-agricultural-policy-poverty-reduction-much-know). Overseas Development Institute. 2007. . Retrieved
2007.
[19] F. Woodward and C. Kelly (1995). "The influence of CO2 concentration on stomatal density". New Phytologist 131: 311–327.
doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.1995.tb03067.x.
[20] Bert G. Drake; Gonzalez-Meler, Miquel A.; Long, Steve P. (1997). "More efficient plants: A Consequence of Rising Atmospheric CO2?".
Annual Review of Plant Physiology and Plant Molecular Biology 48: 609. doi:10.1146/annurev.arplant.48.1.609. PMID 15012276.
[21] Royal Society (2005) [Impact of climate change on crops worse than previously thought http:/ / royalsociety. org/ General_WF.
aspx?pageid=7317& terms= Impact of climate change on crops worse than previously thought] archived (http:/ / www. webcitation. org/
5n0RsBBbh)
[22] Climate Change 2001: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg2/ 208. htm)
IPCC
[23] Loladze, I (2002). "Rising atmospheric CO2 and human nutrition: toward globally imbalanced plant stoichiometry?". Trends in Ecology &
Evolution 17: 457. doi:10.1016/S0169-5347(02)02587-9.
Climate change and agriculture 281

[24] Carlos E. Coviella and John T. Trumble (1999). "Effects of Elevated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide on Insect-Plant Interactions" (http:/ /
www. jstor. org/ stable/ 2641685). Conservation Biology (Conservation Biology, Vol. 13, No. 4) 13 (4): 700. .
[25] The Food, the Bad, and the Ugly (http:/ / www. grist. org/ news/ maindish/ 2005/ 07/ 12/ scherer-plantchem/ ) Scherer, Glenn Grist July,
2005
[26] Plague of plenty (http:/ / www. math. unl. edu/ ~iloladze/ NewSci/ NewSci. htm) New Scientist Archive
[27] German Research Indicates Warming in Siberia, Global Warming Today, Global Warming Today
[28] Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring 5Roshydromet), Strategic Forecast of Climate Change in the Russian
Federation 2010–2015 and Its Impact on Sectors of the Russian Economy (Moscow 2005)
[29] The Danger of Climate Change for Russia – Expected Losses and Recommendations, By Alexey O. Kokorin and Inna G. Gritsevich,
Moscow, russian analytical digest 23/07 (http:/ / se2. isn. ch/ serviceengine/ FileContent?serviceID=ISFPub&
fileid=E97C8CEF-87D1-D8C6-53EA-0991B4B6BA3B& lng=en)
[30] Global warming 'will hurt Russia', 14:23 03 October 2003, NewScientist.com news service
[31] “Coping With Climate Change.” Rice Today, IRRI. July-Sept (2007): 10-15. (http:/ / www. irri. org/ publications/ today/ pdfs/ 6-3/ 10-15.
pdf)
[32] Big melt threatens millions, says UN (http:/ / www. peopleandplanet. net/ pdoc. php?id=3024)
[33] Glaciers melting at alarming speed (http:/ / english. peopledaily. com. cn/ 90001/ 90781/ 90879/ 6222327. html)
[34] Ganges, Indus may not survive: climatologists (http:/ / www. rediff. com/ news/ 2007/ jul/ 24indus. htm)
[35] Himalaya glaciers melt unnoticed (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 3998967. stm)
[36] Glaciers Are Melting Faster Than Expected, UN Reports (http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com/ releases/ 2008/ 03/ 080317154235. htm)
[37] Ozone layer least fragile on record (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ uk_news/ story/ 0,,1470944,00. html) Brown, Paul The Guardian April
2005
[38] Dead link: http:/ / news. independent. co. uk/ world/ environment/ story. jsp?story=633349
[39] IPCC. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. United Nations Environment Programme, 2007:Ch5, 8, and 10. (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/
assessment-report/ ar4/ syr/ ar4_syr. pdf)
[40] Battisti, David S. et al. “Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture.” Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. No.19 (2007): 7752-7757. (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ content/ 104/ 19/ 7752.
abstract)
[41] Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (http:/ / www. virtualcentre. org/ en/ library/ key_pub/ longshad/ A0701E00. pdf) retrieved 25
June 2007
[42] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http:/ / ipcc-wg1. ucar. edu/ wg1/ wg1-report. html) (IPCC)
[43] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter2. pdf)
[44] IPCC Technical Summary (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-ts. pdf) retrieved 25 June 2007
[45] Food and Agricultural Organization of the U.N. (http:/ / www. virtualcentre. org/ en/ library/ key_pub/ longshad/ A0701E00. pdf) retrieved
25 June 2007
[46] Food and Agricultural Organization of the U.N. (http:/ / www. virtualcentre. org/ en/ library/ key_pub/ longshad/ A0701E00. pdf) retrieved
27 June 2007

Further reading
• Fischer G., Shah M. and van Velthuizen H. (2002) "Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability" (http://
ivm5.ivm.vu.nl/adaptation/project/files/File/ADAPTS/Climate-agri.pdf). International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis. Report prepared under UN Institutional Contract Agreement 1113 for World Summit on
Sustainable Development. Laxenburg, Austria

External links
• Climate change (http://www.fao.org/climatechange/en/) on the Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations website.
• A comprehensive report (http://www.ifpri.org/publication/climate-change-1) on the relationship between
climate change, agriculture and food security by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). See
also an overview of IFPRI's climate change research (http://www.ifpri.org/book-775/ourwork/researcharea/
climate-change).
• LADSS - Climate Change and Agriculture (http://www.macaulay.ac.uk/LADSS/climate_change_wshop.
html) - Are we asking the right questions?
Climate change and agriculture 282

• Food Security of Women in the Context of Climate Change - Online Discussion Forum (http://km.fao.org/fsn/
)
• The Guardian's [climate change coverage http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/climate-change] often
includes discussions about food security, including the June 30, 2005 article, One in six countries facing food
shortage (http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1517831,00.html)
• How is climate change threatening agriculture? (http://www.greenfacts.org/en/agriculture-iaastd/index.
htm#4) section of official popularized version of IAASTD synthesis report (2008)
• Impacts of Climate Change on European Forests and Options for Adaptation (http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/
analysis/external/euro_forests/index_en.htm) Report to the European Commission Directorate-General for
Agriculture and Rural Development; report written by European Forest Institute (EFI) with University of Natural
Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Institute of Forest Entomology, Forest Pathology and
Forest Protection, INRA - UMR Biodiversité Gènes et Communautés and Italian Academy of Forest Sciences
(IAFS) (November 2008)
• Climate Change and Agriculture in the ECA region (http://www.worldbank.org/eca/climateandagriculture) a
regional look by the World Bank at climate change and agriculture in countries in Europe and Central Asia.
• Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (http://www.ccafs.cgiar.org/) Global scientific research
program that seeks to overcome the threats to agriculture and food security in a changing climate, exploring new
ways of helping vulnerable rural communities adjust to global changes in climate.

Climate change and ecosystems


This article is about climate change and ecosystems.

Impacts
Unchecked global warming could affect most terrestrial ecoregions. Increasing global temperature means that
ecosystems will change; some species are being forced out of their habitats (possibly to extinction) because of
changing conditions, while others are flourishing. Secondary effects of global warming, such as lessened snow
cover, rising sea levels, and weather changes, may influence not only human activities but also the ecosystem.
For the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, experts assessed the literature on the impacts of climate change on
ecosystems. Rosenzweig et al. (2007) concluded that over the last three decades, human-induced warming had likely
had a discernable influence on many physical and biological systems (p. 81).[1] Schneider et al. (2007) concluded,
with very high confidence, that regional temperature trends had already affected species and ecosystems around the
world (p. 792).[2] With high confidence, they concluded that climate change would result in the extinction of many
species and a reduction in the diversity of ecosystems (p. 792).
• Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity: With a warming of 3°C, relative to 1990 levels, it is likely that global
terrestrial vegetation would become a net source of carbon (Schneider et al., 2007:792). With high confidence,
Schneider et al. (2007:788) concluded that a global mean temperature increase of around 4°C (above the
1990-2000 level) by 2100 would lead to major extinctions around the globe.
• Marine ecosystems and biodiversity: With very high confidence, Schneider et al. (2007:792) concluded that a
warming of 2°C above 1990 levels would result in mass mortality of coral reefs globally.
• Freshwater ecosystems: Above about a 4°C increase in global mean temperature by 2100 (relative to
1990-2000), Schneider et al. (2007:789) concluded, with high confidence, that many freshwater species would
become extinct.
Studying the association between Earth climate and extinctions over the past 520 million years, scientists from the
University of York write, "The global temperatures predicted for the coming centuries may trigger a new ‘mass
Climate change and ecosystems 283

extinction event’, where over 50 per cent of animal and plant species would be wiped out."[3]
Many of the species at risk are Arctic and Antarctic fauna such as polar bears[4] and Emperor Penguins.[5] In the
Arctic, the waters of Hudson Bay are ice-free for three weeks longer than they were thirty years ago, affecting polar
bears, which prefer to hunt on sea ice.[6] Species that rely on cold weather conditions such as gyrfalcons, and Snowy
Owls that prey on lemmings that use the cold winter to their advantage may be hit hard.[7] [8] Marine invertebrates
enjoy peak growth at the temperatures they have adapted to, regardless of how cold these may be, and cold-blooded
animals found at greater latitudes and altitudes generally grow faster to compensate for the short growing season.[9]
Warmer-than-ideal conditions result in higher metabolism and consequent reductions in body size despite increased
foraging, which in turn elevates the risk of predation. Indeed, even a slight increase in temperature during
development impairs growth efficiency and survival rate in rainbow trout.[10]
Rising temperatures are beginning to have a noticeable impact on birds,[11] and butterflies have shifted their ranges
northward by 200 km in Europe and North America. Plants lag behind, and larger animals' migration is slowed down
by cities and roads. In Britain, spring butterflies are appearing an average of 6 days earlier than two decades ago.[12]
A 2002 article in Nature[13] surveyed the scientific literature to find recent changes in range or seasonal behaviour by
plant and animal species. Of species showing recent change, 4 out of 5 shifted their ranges towards the poles or
higher altitudes, creating "refugee species". Frogs were breeding, flowers blossoming and birds migrating an average
2.3 days earlier each decade; butterflies, birds and plants moving towards the poles by 6.1 km per decade. A 2005
study concludes human activity is the cause of the temperature rise and resultant changing species behaviour, and
links these effects with the predictions of climate models to provide validation for them.[14] Scientists have observed
that Antarctic hair grass is colonizing areas of Antarctica where previously their survival range was limited.[15]
Mechanistic studies have documented extinctions due to recent climate change: McLaughlin et al. documented two
populations of Bay checkerspot butterfly being threatened by precipitation change.[16] Parmesan states, "Few studies
have been conducted at a scale that encompasses an entire species"[17] and McLaughlin et al. agreed "few
mechanistic studies have linked extinctions to recent climate change."[16] Daniel Botkin and other authors in one
study believe that projected rates of extinction are overestimated.[18]
Many species of freshwater and saltwater plants and animals are dependent on glacier-fed waters to ensure a cold
water habitat that they have adapted to. Some species of freshwater fish need cold water to survive and to reproduce,
and this is especially true with Salmon and Cutthroat trout. Reduced glacier runoff can lead to insufficient stream
flow to allow these species to thrive. Ocean krill, a cornerstone species, prefer cold water and are the primary food
source for aquatic mammals such as the Blue Whale.[19] Alterations to the ocean currents, due to increased
freshwater inputs from glacier melt, and the potential alterations to thermohaline circulation of the worlds oceans,
may affect existing fisheries upon which humans depend as well.
The white lemuroid possum, only found in the mountain forests of northern Queensland, has been named as the first
mammal species to be driven extinct by global warming. The White Possum has not been seen in over three years.
These possums cannot survive extended temperatures over 30 °C (86 °F), which occurred in 2005. A final expedition
to uncover any surviving White Possums is scheduled for 2009.[20]
Climate change and ecosystems 284

Forests
Pine forests in British Columbia have been devastated
by a pine beetle infestation, which has expanded
unhindered since 1998 at least in part due to the lack of
severe winters since that time; a few days of extreme
cold kill most mountain pine beetles and have kept
outbreaks in the past naturally contained. The
infestation, which (by November 2008) has killed about
half of the province's lodgepole pines (33 million acres
or 135,000 km²)[21] [22] is an order of magnitude larger
than any previously recorded outbreak.[23] One reason
for unprecedented host tree mortality may be due to
that the mountain pine beetles have higher reproductive
success in lodgepole pine trees growing in areas where
the trees have not experienced frequent beetle epidemics, which includes much of the current outbreak area.[24] In
2007 the outbreak spread, via unusually strong winds, over the continental divide to Alberta. An epidemic also
started, be it at a lower rate, in 1999 in Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana. The United States forest service predicts
that between 2011 and 2013 virtually all 5 million acres (20000 km2) of Colorado’s lodgepole pine trees over five
inches (127 mm) in diameter will be lost.[22]

As the northern forests are a carbon sink, while dead forests are a major carbon source, the loss of such large areas of
forest has a positive feedback on global warming. In the worst years, the carbon emission due to beetle infestation of
forests in British Columbia alone approaches that of an average year of forest fires in all of Canada or five years
worth of emissions from that country's transportation sources.[23] [25]
Besides the immediate ecological and economic impact, the huge dead forests provide a fire risk. Even many healthy
forests appear to face an increased risk of forest fires because of warming climates. The 10-year average of boreal
forest burned in North America, after several decades of around 10,000 km² (2.5 million acres), has increased
steadily since 1970 to more than 28,000 km² (7 million acres) annually.[26] Though this change may be due in part to
changes in forest management practices, in the western U.S., since 1986, longer, warmer summers have resulted in a
fourfold increase of major wildfires and a sixfold increase in the area of forest burned, compared to the period from
1970 to 1986. A similar increase in wildfire activity has been reported in Canada from 1920 to 1999.[27]
Forest fires in Indonesia have dramatically increased since 1997 as well. These fires are often actively started to clear
forest for agriculture. They can set fire to the large peat bogs in the region and the CO₂released by these peat bog
fires has been estimated, in an average year, to be 15% of the quantity of CO₂produced by fossil fuel combustion.[28]

Mountains
Mountains cover approximately 25 percent of earth's surface and provide a home to more than one-tenth of global
human population. Changes in global climate pose a number of potential risks to mountain habitats.[29] Researchers
expect that over time, climate change will affect mountain and lowland ecosystems, the frequency and intensity of
forest fires, the diversity of wildlife, and the distribution of water.
Studies suggest that a warmer climate in the United States would cause lower-elevation habitats to expand into the
higher alpine zone.[30] Such a shift would encroach on the rare alpine meadows and other high-altitude habitats.
High-elevation plants and animals have limited space available for new habitat as they move higher on the
mountains in order to adapt to long-term changes in regional climate.
Changes in climate will also affect the depth of the mountains snowpacks and glaciers. Any changes in their seasonal
melting can have powerful impacts on areas that rely on freshwater runoff from mountains. Rising temperature may
Climate change and ecosystems 285

cause snow to melt earlier and faster in the spring and shift the timing and distribution of runoff. These changes
could affect the availability of freshwater for natural systems and human uses.[31]

Ecological productivity
• According to a paper by Smith and Hitz (2003:66), it is reasonable to assume that the relationship between
increased global mean temperature and ecosystem productivity is parabolic. Higher carbon dioxide concentrations
will favourably affect plant growth and demand for water. Higher temperatures could initially be favourable for
plant growth. Eventually, increased growth would peak then decline.[32]
• According to IPCC (2007:11), a global average temperature increase exceeding 1.5–2.5°C (relative to the period
1980–99), would likely have a predominantly negative impact on ecosystem goods and services, e.g., water and
food supply.[33]
• Research done by the Swiss Canopy Crane Project [34] suggests that slow-growing trees only are stimulated in
growth for a short period under higher CO2 levels, while faster growing plants like liana benefit in the long term.
In general, but especially in rainforests, this means that liana become the prevalent species; and because they
decompose much faster than trees their carbon content is more quickly returned to the atmosphere. Slow growing
trees incorporate atmospheric carbon for decades.

References
[1] Rosenzweig, C. et al. (2007). "Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems. In: Climate Change 2007:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [M.L. Parry et al. (eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. pp. 79–131. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[2] Schneider, S.H. et al. (2007). "Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
[M.L. Parry et al. (eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. pp. 779–810. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[3] Mayhew, Peter J; Gareth B. Jenkins, Timothy G. Benton (October 23, 2007). "A long-term association between global temperature and
biodiversity, origination and extinction in the fossil record" (http:/ / www. journals. royalsoc. ac. uk/ content/ 3x081w5n5358qj01/ ).
Proceedings of the Royal Society B (Royal Society Publishing) 275 (1630): 47–53. doi:10.1098/rspb.2007.1302. PMC 2562410.
PMID 17956842. . Retrieved 2007-10-30.
[4] Amstrup, Steven C.; Ian Stirling, Tom S. Smith, Craig Perham, Gregory W. Thiemann (2006-04-27). "Recent observations of intraspecific
predation and cannibalism among polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea". Polar Biology 29 (11): 997–1002.
doi:10.1007/s00300-006-0142-5.
[5] Le Bohec, Céline; Joël M. Durant, Michel Gauthier-Clerc, Nils C. Stenseth, Young-Hyang Park, Roger Pradel, David Grémillet, Jean-Paul
Gendner, and Yvon Le Maho (2008-02-11). "King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/
content/ abstract/ 0712031105v1) (abstract). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 105 (7): 2493–7. doi:10.1073/pnas.0712031105. PMC 2268164.
PMID 18268328. . Retrieved 2008-02-13.
[6] On Thinning Ice (http:/ / www. lrb. co. uk/ v27/ n01/ byer01_. html) Michael Byers London Review of Books January 2005
[7] Pertti Koskimies (compiler) (1999). "International Species Action Plan for the Gyrfalcon Falco rusticolis" (http:/ / ec. europa. eu/
environment/ nature/ conservation/ wildbirds/ action_plans/ docs/ falco_rusticolis. pdf) (PDF). BirdLife International. . Retrieved 2007-12-28.
[8] "Snowy Owl" (http:/ / aknhp. uaa. alaska. edu/ zoology/ species_ADFG/ ADFG_PDFs/ Birds/ Snowy Owl_ADFG_final_2006. pdf) (PDF).
University of Alaska. 2006. . Retrieved 2007-12-28.
[9] Arendt, J.D. (1997). "Adaptive intrinsic growth rates: an integration across taxa" (http:/ / links. jstor. org/
sici?sici=0033-5770(199706)72:2<149:AIGRAI>2. 0. CO;2-X). The Quarterly Review of Biology 72 (2): 149–177. doi:10.1086/419764. .
[10] Biro, P.A., et al. (June 2007). "Mechanisms for climate-induced mortality of fish populations in whole-lake experiments". Proc. Natl. Acad.
Sci. U.S.A. 104 (23): 9715–9. doi:10.1073/pnas.0701638104. ISSN 1091-6490. PMC 1887605. PMID 17535908.
[11] Time Hirsch (2005-10-05). "Animals 'hit by global warming'" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 4313726. stm). BBC News. .
Retrieved 2007-12-29.
[12] Walther, Gian-Reto; Eric Post, Peter Convey, Annette Menzel, Camille Parmesan, Trevor J. C. Beebee, Jean-Marc Fromentin, Ove
Hoegh-Guldberg, Franz Bairlein (March 28, 2002). "Ecological responses to recent climate change" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/
journal/ v416/ n6879/ pdf/ 416389a. pdf) (PDF). Nature 416 (6879): 389–95. doi:10.1038/416389a. PMID 11919621. .
[13] Root, Terry L.; Jeff T. Price, Kimberly R. Hall, Stephen H. Schneider, Cynthia Rosenzweig & Alan Pounds (2003-01-02). "Fingerprints of
global warming on animals and plants" (http:/ / cesp. stanford. edu/ publications/ fingerprints_of_global_warming_on_animals_and_plants/
index. html). Nature 421 (6918): 57–9. doi:10.1038/nature01333. . Retrieved 2008-02-13.
Climate change and ecosystems 286

[14] www.stanford.edu (http:/ / iis-db. stanford. edu/ pubs/ 20887/ PNAS_5_16_05. pdf)
[15] Grass flourishes in warmer Antarctic (http:/ / www. heatisonline. org/ contentserver/ objecthandlers/ index. cfm?id=5014& method=full)
originally from The Times, December 2004
[16] McLaughlin, John F.; et al. (2002-04-30). "Climate change hastens population extinctions" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/
20070604183008/ http:/ / www. nd. edu/ ~hellmann/ pnas. pdf) (PDF). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 99 (9): 6070–4.
doi:10.1073/pnas.052131199. PMC 122903. PMID 11972020. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. nd. edu/ ~hellmann/ pnas. pdf) on
2007-06-04. . Retrieved 2007-03-29.
[17] Permesan, Camille (2006-08-24). "Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change" (http:/ / cns. utexas. edu/
communications/ File/ AnnRev_CCimpacts2006. pdf) (PDF). Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 37: 637–69.
doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100. . Retrieved 2007-03-30.
[18] Botkin, Daniel B.; et al. (March 2007). "Forecasting the Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity" (http:/ / www. imv. dk/ Admin/ Public/
DWSDownload. aspx?File=/ Files/ Filer/ IMV/ Publikationer/ Fagartikler/ 2007/ 050307_Botkin_et_al. pdf) (PDF). BioScience 57 (3):
227–236. doi:10.1641/B570306. . Retrieved 2007-11-30.
[19] Lovell, Jeremy (2002-09-09). "Warming Could End Antarctic Species" (http:/ / www. cbsnews. com/ stories/ 2002/ 09/ 09/ tech/
main521258. shtml). CBS News. . Retrieved 2008-01-02.
[20] White possum said to be first victim of global warming (http:/ / www. news. com. au/ couriermail/ story/ 0,23739,24742053-952,00. html)
[21] Natural Resources Canada (http:/ / mpb. cfs. nrcan. gc. ca/ index_e. html)
[22] Jim Robbins, Beetles Kill Millions of Acres of Trees in West (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2008/ 11/ 18/ science/ 18trees. html?em|Bark),
New York Times, 17 November 2008
[23] Kurz WA, Dymond CC, Stinson G, et al. (April 2008). "Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change" (http:/ / www.
nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v452/ n7190/ abs/ nature06777. html). Nature 452 (7190): 987–90. doi:10.1038/nature06777. PMID 18432244. .
[24] Cudmore TJ, Björklund N, Carrollbbb, AL. Lindgren BS. (2010). "Climate change and range expansion of an aggressive bark beetle:
evidence of higher reproductive success in naïve host tree populations". Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1036–43.
doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01848.x.
[25] Pine Forests Destroyed by Beetle Takeover (http:/ / www. npr. org/ templates/ story/ story. php?storyId=89942771), NPR'sTalk of the
Nation, April 25, 2008
[26] US National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (http:/ / www. usgcrp. gov/ usgcrp/ nacc/
education/ alaska/ ak-edu-5. htm) Regional Paper: Alaska
[27] Running SW (August 2006). "Climate change. Is Global Warming causing More, Larger Wildfires?" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/
pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=16825534). Science 313 (5789): 927–8. doi:10.1126/science.1130370. PMID 16825534. .
[28] BBC News: Asian peat fires add to warming (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 4208564. stm)
[29] Nogués-Bravoa D., Araújoc M.B., Erread M.P., Martínez-Ricad J.P. (August–October 2007). "Exposure of global mountain systems to
climate warming during the 21st Century". Global Environmental 17 (3-4): 420–8. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.11.007.
[30] The Potential Effects Of Global Climate Change On The United States (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ climatechange/ effects/ downloads/
potential_effects. pdf) Report to Congress Editors: Joel B. Smith and Dennis Tirpak US-EPA December 1989
[31] United Nations (2002-12-12). "Freshwater Issues at ‘Heart of Humankind’S Hopes for Peace and Development’" (http:/ / www. un. org/
News/ Press/ docs/ 2002/ ENVDEV713. doc. htm). Press release. . Retrieved 2008-02-13.
[32] Smith, J. and Hitz, S. (2003). "OECD Workshop on the Benefits of Climate Policy: Improving Information for Policy Makers. Background
Paper: Estimating Global Impacts from Climate Change" (http:/ / www. oecd. org/ dataoecd/ 9/ 60/ 2482270. pdf). Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development. . Retrieved 2009-06-19.
[33] IPCC (2007). "Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working
Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M.L. Parry et al. (eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A..
pp. 7–22. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[34] http:/ / pages. unibas. ch/ botschoen/ scc/ index. shtml
Climate change and ecosystems 287

Further reading
• Barnosky, Anthony D. (March 13, 2009). Heatstroke: Nature in an Age of Global Warming (1st ed.). Shearwater.
ISBN 978-1597261975.
• NRC (2008). "Ecological Impacts of Climate Change" (http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12491).
The National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001, USA. pp. 70. Retrieved
2010-03-13.
• Rosset V., Lehmann A. & Oertli B. (2010). "Warmer and richer? Predicting the impact of climate warming on
species richness in small temperate waterbodies". Global Change Biology 16(8): 2376-2387.
doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02206.x.

External links
• The IPCC Working Group II (WG II) website (http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/). This body assesses the
vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of
climate change, and options for adapting to it.
• Health and environmental effects of climate change (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/index.html)
– US Environmental Protection Agency

Specific topics
• See the impacts of climate change happening now on three Australian ecosystems: 'Tipping Point', Catalyst,
ABC-TV (http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s1647466.htm)
• Climate Change: Coral Reefs on the Edge (http://site.videoproject.com/coralreefs/) An online video
presentation by Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Auckland

Drought
A drought (or drouth [archaic]) is an extended period
of months or years when a region notes a deficiency in
its water supply. Generally, this occurs when a region
receives consistently below average precipitation. It can
have a substantial impact on the ecosystem and
agriculture of the affected region. Although droughts
can persist for several years, even a short, intense
drought can cause significant damage[1] and harm the Fields outside Benambra, Victoria, Australia suffering from drought
conditions.
local economy.[2]

This global phenomenon has a widespread impact on agriculture. The United Nations estimates that an area of fertile
soil the size of Ukraine is lost every year because of drought, deforestation, and climate instability.[3] Lengthy
periods of drought have long been a key trigger for mass migration and played a key role in a number of ongoing
migrations and other humanitarian crises in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel.
Drought 288

Consequences
Periods of drought can have significant environmental, agricultural,
health, economic and social consequences. The effect varies according
to vulnerability. For example, subsistence farmers are more likely to
migrate during drought because they do not have alternative food
sources. Areas with populations that depend on subsistence farming as
a major food source are more vulnerable to drought-triggered famine.

Drought can also reduce water quality, because lower water flows
reduce dilution of pollutants and increase contamination of remaining
water sources. Common consequences of drought include:
• Diminished crop growth or yield productions and carrying capacity
for livestock
• Dust bowls, themselves a sign of erosion, which further erode the
landscape
• Dust storms, when drought hits an area suffering from
desertification and erosion
• Famine due to lack of water for irrigation
• Habitat damage, affecting both terrestrial and aquatic wildlife[4] Dry earth in the Sonoran desert, Mexico.

• Malnutrition, dehydration and related diseases


• Mass migration, resulting in internal displacement and international refugees
• Reduced electricity production due to insufficient available coolant for power stations,[5] and reduced water flow
through hydroelectric dams[6]
• Shortages of water for industrial users[7] [8]
• Snakes migration and increases in snakebites[9]
• Social unrest
• War over natural resources, including water and food
• Wildfires, such as Australian bushfires, are more common during times of drought[10]

Globally
Drought is a normal, recurring feature of the climate in most parts of the world. It is among the earliest documented
climatic events, present in the Epic of Gilgamesh and tied to the biblical story of Joseph's arrival in and the later
Exodus from Ancient Egypt.[11] Hunter-gatherer migrations in 9,500 BC Chile have been linked to the
phenomenon,[12] as has the exodus of early man out of Africa and into the rest of the world around 135,000 years
ago.[13]
Modern peoples can effectively mitigate much of the impact of drought through irrigation and crop rotation. Failure
to develop adequate drought mitigation strategies carries a grave human cost in the modern era, exacerbated by
ever-increasing population densities.
Drought 289

Regions
Recurring droughts leading to desertification in the Horn of Africa
have created grave ecological catastrophes, prompting massive food
shortages, still recurring.[16] To the north-west of the Horn, the Darfur
conflict in neighboring Sudan, also affecting Chad, was fueled by
decades of drought; combination of drought, desertification and
overpopulation are among the causes of the Darfur conflict, because
the Arab Baggara nomads searching for water have to take their
livestock further south, to land mainly occupied by non-Arab farming
peoples.[17]

Approximately 2.4 billion people live in the drainage basin of the


Himalayan rivers.[18] India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and
Myanmar could experience floods followed by droughts in coming
Lake Chad in a 2001 satellite image, with the
decades. Drought in India affecting the Ganges is of particular concern, actual lake in blue. The lake has shrunk by 95%
[14] [15]
as it provides drinking water and agricultural irrigation for more than since the 1960s.
500 million people.[19] [20] [21] The west coast of North America, which
gets much of its water from glaciers in mountain ranges such as the
Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada, also would be affected.[22] [23]

In 2005, parts of the Amazon basin experienced the worst drought in


100 years.[24] [25] A 23 July 2006 article reported Woods Hole
Research Center results showing that the forest in its present form
could survive only three years of drought.[26] [27] Scientists at the
Brazilian National Institute of Amazonian Research argue in the article
that this drought response, coupled with the effects of deforestation on
regional climate, are pushing the rainforest towards a "tipping point" Sheep on a drought affected paddock near
Uranquinty, New South Wales.
where it would irreversibly start to die. It concludes that the rainforest
is on the brink of being turned into savanna or desert, with catastrophic
consequences for the world's climate. According to the WWF, the combination of climate change and deforestation
increases the drying effect of dead trees that fuels forest fires.[28]

By far the largest part of Australia is desert or semi-arid lands commonly known as the outback. A 2005 study by
Australian and American researchers investigated the desertification of the interior, and suggested that one
explanation was related to human settlers who arrived about 50,000 years ago. Regular burning by these settlers
could have prevented monsoons from reaching interior Australia.[29] In June 2008 it became known that an expert
panel had warned of long term, maybe irreversible, severe ecological damage for the whole Murray-Darling basin if
it does not receive sufficient water by October.[30] Australia could experience more severe droughts and they could
become more frequent in the future, a government-commissioned report said on July 6, 2008.[31] The Australian of
the year 2007, environmentalist Tim Flannery, predicted that unless it made drastic changes, Perth in Western
Australia could become the world’s first ghost metropolis, an abandoned city with no more water to sustain its
population.[32]

East Africa currently faces its worst drought in decades,[33] [34] with crops and livestock destroyed.[35] The U.N.
World Food Programme recently said that nearly four million Kenyans urgently needed food.[36]
Drought 290

Causes
Generally, rainfall is related to the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere,
combined with the upward forcing of the air mass containing that water vapor. If
either of these are reduced, the result is a drought. This can be triggered by an above
average prevalence of high pressure systems, winds carrying continental, rather than
oceanic air masses (i.e. reduced water content), and ridges of high pressure areas
form with behaviors which prevent or restrict the developing of thunderstorm
activity or rainfall over one certain region. Oceanic and atmospheric weather cycles
such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) make drought a regular recurring
feature of the Americas along the Pacific coast and Australia. Guns, Germs, and
Steel author Jared Diamond sees the stark impact of the multi-year ENSO cycles on
Australian weather patterns as a key reason that Australian aborigines remained a
hunter-gatherer society rather than adopting agriculture.[37] Another climate
oscillation known as the North Atlantic Oscillation has been tied to droughts in
Mongolian gazelle dead of
drought.
northeast Spain.[38]

Human activity can directly trigger exacerbating factors such as over farming,
[39]
excessive irrigation, deforestation, and erosion adversely impact the ability of the land to capture and hold
water.[40] While these tend to be relatively isolated in their scope, activities resulting in global climate change are
expected to trigger droughts with a substantial impact on agriculture[41] throughout the world, and especially in
developing nations.[42] [43] [44] Overall, global warming will result in increased world rainfall.[45] Along with drought
in some areas, flooding and erosion will increase in others. Paradoxically, some proposed solutions to global
warming that focus on more active techniques, solar radiation management through the use of a space sunshade for
one, may also carry with them increased chances of drought.[46]

Types of drought
As a drought persists, the conditions surrounding it gradually worsen
and its impact on the local population gradually increases. People tend
to define droughts in three main ways:[47]
1. Meteorological drought is brought about when there is a prolonged
period with less than average precipitation. Meteorological drought
usually precedes the other kinds of drought.
2. Agricultural droughts are droughts that affect crop production or the
ecology of the range. This condition can also arise independently
from any change in precipitation levels when soil conditions and Ship stranded by the retreat of the Aral Sea.
erosion triggered by poorly planned agricultural endeavors cause a
shortfall in water available to the crops. However, in a traditional drought, it is caused by an extended period of
below average precipitation.
3. Hydrological drought is brought about when the water reserves available in sources such as aquifers, lakes are
reservoirs fall below the statistical average. Hydrological drought tends to show up more slowly because it
involves stored water that is used but not replenished. Like an agricultural drought, this can be triggered by more
than just a loss of rainfall. For instance, Kazakhstan was recently awarded a large amount of money by the World
Bank to restore water that had been diverted to other nations from the Aral Sea under Soviet rule.[48] Similar
circumstances also place their largest lake, Balkhash, at risk of completely drying out.[49]
Drought 291

Drought protection and relief


Strategies for drought protection, mitigation or relief include:
• Dams - many dams and their associated reservoirs supply additional
water in times of drought.
• Cloud seeding - an artificial technique are induce rainfall.[50]
• Desalination of sea water for irrigation or consumption.
• Drought monitoring - Continuous observation of rainfall levels and
comparisons with current usage levels can help prevent man-made
drought. For instance, analysis of water usage in Yemen has
revealed that their water table (underground water level) is put at
grave risk by over-use to fertilize their Khat crop.[51] Careful
monitoring of moisture levels can also help predict increased risk
for wildfires, using such metrics as the Keetch-Byram Drought
Index[10] or Palmer Drought Index.
• Land use - Carefully planned crop rotation can help to minimize
erosion and allow farmers to plant less water-dependent crops in
The effects of the drought brought on by El Niño.
drier years. Waiting for water distribution (Ebeye, Marshall
• Outdoor water-use restriction - Regulating the use of sprinklers, Islands.)

hoses or buckets on outdoor plants, filling pools, and other


water-intensive home maintenance tasks.
• Rainwater harvesting - Collection and storage of rainwater from roofs or other suitable catchments.
• Recycled water - Former wastewater (sewage) that has been treated and purified for reuse.
• Transvasement - Building canals or redirecting rivers as massive attempts at irrigation in drought-prone areas.

References
[1] Living With Drought (http:/ / www. bom. gov. au/ climate/ drought/ livedrought. shtml)
[2] Australian Drought and Climate Change (http:/ / www. lilith-ezine. com/ articles/ environmental/ Australian-Drought. html), retrieved on
June 7th 2007.
[3] 2008: The year of global food crisis (http:/ / www. heraldscotland. com/ 2008-the-year-of-global-food-crisis-1. 828546)
[4] C.Michael Hogan. 2010. Abiotic factor. Ed. Emily Monosson. Encyclopedia of Earth. National Council for Science and the Environment,
Washignton DC (http:/ / www. eoearth. org/ article/ Abiotic_factor?topic=49461)
[5] U.S. drought may dry up coolant water, close plants - The China Post (http:/ / news. google. com/ archivesearch/ url?sa=t& ct=res& cd=2-0&
url=http:/ / www. chinapost. com. tw/ international/ 2008/ 01/ 25/ 140525/ U. S. -drought. htm& ei=W7U6SLmGBp7y6AHmp5AS&
usg=AFQjCNHOkKFUWf2PwD3_gL2GOjsByAQSDg)
[6] Drought affecting US hydroelectric production | Daily Estimate (http:/ / www. dailyestimate. com/ article. asp?idcategory=35& idSub=175&
idArticle=12286)
[7] Parched village sues to shut tap at Coke March 6, 2005 (http:/ / www. sfgate. com/ cgi-bin/ article. cgi?file=/ c/ a/ 2005/ 03/ 06/
MNGE2BL7161. DTL)
[8] Greenpeace reports on a Swedish drought and its potential impact on their nuclear power industry. 4 August 2006 (http:/ / www. greenpeace.
org/ international/ news/ sweden-nuclear-closure-040806)
[9] Australians Face Snake Invasion. (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ asia-pacific/ 6282075. stm)
[10] Texas Forest Service description of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) from 27 December 2002 (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/
20030711082443/ http:/ / txforestservice. tamu. edu/ shared/ article. asp?DocumentID=406& mc=fire)
[11] BBC - Weather Centre - Features - History and Religion - Weather in the Bible - Drought and Famine (http:/ / www. bbc. co. uk/ weather/
features/ bible_drought. shtml)
[12] Ancient Chile Migration Mystery Tied to Drought (http:/ / news. nationalgeographic. com/ news/ 2002/ 10/ 1024_021024_ChileAtacama.
html)
[13] Drought pushed ancient African immigration (http:/ / azstarnet. com/ all-headlines/ 205715m/ )
[14] Disappearing Lakes, Shrinking Seas (http:/ / www. earth-policy. org/ index. php?/ plan_b_updates/ 2005/ update47)
[15] Shrinking African Lake Offers Lesson on Finite Resources (http:/ / news. nationalgeographic. com/ news/ 2001/ 04/ 0426_lakechadshrinks.
html)
Drought 292

[16] Sara Pantuliano and Sara Pavanello (2009) Taking drought into account Addressing chronic vulnerability among pastoralists in the Horn of
Africa (http:/ / www. odi. org. uk/ resources/ details. asp?id=3591& title=drought-livelihoods-pastoralists-humanitarian) Overseas
Development Institute
[17] Looking to water to find peace in Darfur (http:/ / www. alertnet. org/ db/ blogs/ 1265/ 2007/ 06/ 30-100806-1. htm)
[18] Big melt threatens millions, says UN (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070819200515/ http:/ / www. peopleandplanet. net/ pdoc.
php?id=3024)
[19] Ganges, Indus may not survive: climatologists (http:/ / www. rediff. com/ news/ 2007/ jul/ 24indus. htm)
[20] Glaciers melting at alarming speed (http:/ / english. peopledaily. com. cn/ 90001/ 90781/ 90879/ 6222327. html)
[21] Himalaya glaciers melt unnoticed (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 3998967. stm)
[22] Glaciers Are Melting Faster Than Expected, UN Reports (http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com/ releases/ 2008/ 03/ 080317154235. htm)
[23] Water shortage worst in decades, official says (http:/ / articles. latimes. com/ 2008/ may/ 02/ local/ me-snowpack2), Los Angeles Times
[24] Environmental News Service - Amazon Drought Worst in 100 Years (http:/ / www. ens-newswire. com/ ens/ oct2005/ 2005-10-24-05. asp)
[25] Drought Threatens Amazon Basin - Extreme conditions felt for second year running (http:/ / www. commondreams. org/ headlines06/
0717-07. htm)
[26] Amazon rainforest 'could become a desert' (http:/ / www. independent. co. uk/ arts-entertainment/
law-mixed-year-begins-and-ends-wrapped-up-in-straw-1191932. html), The Independent, July 23, 2006. Retrieved September 28, 2006.
[27] Dying Forest: One year to save the Amazon (http:/ / www. independent. co. uk/ news/ fishermen-braced-for-quota-cuts-1191880. html), The
Independent, July 23, 2006. Retrieved September 28, 2006.
[28] Climate change a threat to Amazon rainforest, warns WWF (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20080518192545/ http:/ / www. panda. org/
news_facts/ newsroom/ index. cfm?uNewsID=64220), World Wide Fund for Nature, March 22, 2006. Retrieved September 28, 2006.
[29] Sensitivity of the Australian Monsoon to insolation and vegetation: Implications for human impact on continental moisture balance (http:/ /
www. geosociety. org/ news/ pr/ 05-01. htm), Geological Society of America
[30] Australian rivers 'face disaster' (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ asia-pacific/ 7460492. stm), BBC News
[31] Australia faces worse, more frequent droughts: study (http:/ / www. reuters. com/ article/ idUSSYD6747620080707), Reuters
[32] Metropolis strives to meet its thirst (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 6620919. stm), BBC News
[33] " East Africa's drought: A catastrophe is looming (http:/ / www. economist. com/ node/ 14506436?story_id=14506436)". The Economist.
September 24, 2009.
[34] " Kenya drought sparks deadly clashes (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ news/ stories/ 2009/ 09/ 21/ 2692148. htm)". ABC News. September 21,
2009.
[35] " Kenya Devastated by Massive Drought (http:/ / www. pbs. org/ newshour/ bb/ africa/ july-dec09/ drought_10-13. html)". PBS NewsHour.
October 13, 2009.
[36] " Lush Land Dries Up, Withering Kenya’s Hopes (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2009/ 09/ 08/ world/ africa/ 08kenya. html)". The New York
Times. September 9, 2009.
[37] Guns, Germs, and Steel by Jared Diamond 1997, pgs 308-309
[38] Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano & José M. Cuadrat (2007-03-14). "North Atlantic oscillation control of droughts in north-east Spain: evaluation
since 1600 A.D." (https:/ / www. cfa. harvard. edu/ ~wsoon/ ChristopherMonckton08-d/
Vicente-SerranoCuadrat07-NAOonNESpainDroughts. pdf). Climatic Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9285-9. . Retrieved 2010-11-23.
[39] A biblical tragedy as Sea of Galilee faces drought (http:/ / www. belfasttelegraph. co. uk/ news/ world-news/
a-biblical-tragedy-as-sea-of-galilee-faces-drought-13956116. html) Belfast Telegraph
[40] Kenya: Deforestation exacerbates droughts, floods (http:/ / forests. org/ shared/ reader/ welcome. aspx?linkid=63511& keybold=climate
drought water catchment)
[41] [[NOAA (http:/ / www. economics. noaa. gov/ library/ documents/ benefits_of_weather_and_climate_forecasts/
drought-climate_change-implications_for_west. doc)] Drought and climate change: implications for the West] December 2002
[42] Record rise in wheat price prompts UN official to warn that surge in food prices may trigger social unrest in developing countries (http:/ /
www. finfacts. com/ irelandbusinessnews/ publish/ article_1011078. shtml)
[43] Fuel costs, drought influence price increase (http:/ / www. timesdaily. com/ article/ 20070914/ NEWS/ 709140329/ 1011/ RSS&
source=RSS)
[44] Nigerian Scholar Links Drought, Climate Change to Conflict Africa Oct, 2005 (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20051028012509/ http:/ /
usinfo. state. gov/ af/ Archive/ 2005/ Oct/ 26-779234. html)
[45] Is Water the New Oil? (http:/ / www. commondreams. org/ headline/ 2008/ 11/ 02-2)
[46] Sunshade' for global warming could cause drought (http:/ / www. newscientist. com/ article/ dn12397) 2 August 2007 New Scientist,
Catherine Brahic
[47] [[NOAA (http:/ / www. nws. noaa. gov/ om/ brochures/ climate/ Drought. pdf)] factsheet], retrieved April 10, 2007
[48] BBC article on the World Bank loan to save the Aral Sea (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ asia-pacific/ 6538219. stm)
[49] BBC article from 2004 concerning the risk of Kazakhstan losing the lake (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ asia-pacific/ 3397077. stm)
[50] Cloud seeding helps alleviate drought (http:/ / www. chinadaily. com. cn/ english/ doc/ 2004-07/ 24/ content_351196. htm)
[51] BBC's (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ programmes/ from_our_own_correspondent/ 6530453. stm) From Our Own Correspondent on khat
water usage
Drought 293

External links
• Water scarcity (http://www.fao.org/nr/water/issues/scarcity.html) from FAO Water (Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations)
• Water Life and Civilisation (http://www.waterlifecivilisation.org/) project that assess how the changes in
hydrological climate have impacted human activities.
• US Economic Costs of Drought (http://www.economics.noaa.gov/?goal=climate&file=events/drought/)
NOAA Economics
• Catastrophic drought is coming back (http://blog.longnow.org/2007/03/10/
brian-fagan-catastrophic-drought-is-coming-back/), Brian M. Fagan lecture for the Long Now Foundation ( MP3
(http://web.archive.org/web/20070715170055/http://media.longnow.org/seminars/salt-020070309-fagan/
salt-020070309-fagan-web.mp3))

Economics of global warming


This article describes the economics of global warming and climate change.

Definitions
In this article, the phrase “climate change” is used to describe a change in the climate, measured in terms of its
statistical properties, e.g., the global mean surface temperature.[1] In this context, “climate” is taken to mean the
average weather. Climate can change over period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The
classical time period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization. The climate change referred
to may be due to natural causes, e.g., changes in the sun's output, or due to human activities, e.g., changing the
composition of the atmosphere.[2] Any human-induced changes in climate will occur against the “background” of
natural climatic variations (see attribution of recent climate change for more information).
In this article, the phrase “global warming” refers to the change in the Earth's global average surface temperature.[3]
Measurements show a global temperature increase of 1.4 °F (0.78 °C) between the years 1900 and 2005. Global
warming is closely associated with a broad spectrum of other climate changes, such as increases in the frequency of
intense rainfall, decreases in snow cover and sea ice, more frequent and intense heat waves, rising sea levels, and
widespread ocean acidification.[4]

Climate change science


This section describes the science of climate change in relation to economics (Munasinghe et al., 1995:39-41):[5]
• Greenhouse gases:
• These gases have been linked with current climate change and may result in further climate change in the
future (e.g., see US NRC, 2001).[6] Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are stock pollutants, and not flow pollutants.
This means that it is the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere that is important in determining climate
change impacts, rather than the flow of GHGs into the atmosphere.
• The stocks of different GHGs in the atmosphere depreciate at various rates, e.g., the atmospheric lifetime of
carbon dioxide is over 100 years. If the atmospheric lifetime of the GHG is a year or longer, then the winds
have time to spread the gas throughout the lower atmosphere, and its absorption of terrestrial infrared radiation
occurs at all latitudes and longitudes (US NRC, 2001:10). It is the flows from all the GHG sources of all
nations that contribute to the stock of long-lived GHGs in the atmosphere.
• Inertia: The emissions of GHGs in any one year represent a relatively small fraction of the total global stock,
meaning that the system as a whole has great inertia. If emissions were to be reduced to zero, it would take
Economics of global warming 294

decades to centuries for stock levels to decline significantly. The time required for stocks to depreciate depends
on the physical process of GHG removal. The stocks of GHGs with relatively short atmospheric lifetimes, such as
methane, depreciate more quickly than the stocks of GHGs with longer atmospheric lifetimes, e.g., HFCs.
• Impact data: Predictions of the physical impacts of climate change are based on the work of climate scientists.
Only once (or if) further climate change occurs, will the true social and economic impacts of climate change be
known. (Note: The preceding sentence is from 1995. Climate change is acknowledged by mainstream science to
exist, to be continuing and to be highly likely to be largely caused by human activity)

Scenarios
Socioeconomic scenarios are used by analysts to make projections of future GHG emissions and to assess future
vulnerability to climate change (Carter et al., 2001:151).[7] Producing scenarios requires estimates of future
population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change.
Economic and energy modelling (such as via the World3 or the POLES models) can be used to analyse and quantify
the effects of such drivers.
Emissions scenarios
One type of emissions scenario is called a "global future" scenario. These scenarios can be thought of as stories of
possible futures. They allow the description of factors that are difficult to quantify, such as governance, social
structures, and institutions. Morita et al. (2001:137-142) assessed the literature on global futures scenarios.[8] They
found considerable variety among scenarios, ranging from variants of sustainable development, to the collapse of
social, economic, and environmental systems.
No strong patterns were found in the relationship between economic activity and GHG emissions. Economic growth
was found to be compatible with increasing or decreasing GHG emissions. In the latter case, emissions growth is
mediated by increased energy efficiency, shifts to non-fossil energy sources, and/or shifts to a post-industrial
(service-based) economy.
Factors affecting emissions growth
• Development trends: In producing scenarios, an important consideration is how social and economic
development will progress in developing countries (Fisher et al., 2007:176).[9] If, for example, developing
countries were to follow a development pathway similar to the current industrialized countries, it could lead to a
very large increase in emissions.
• GHG emissions and economic growth: Emissions do not only depend on the growth rate of the economy. Other
factors are listed below:
• Structural changes in the production system.
• Technological patterns in sectors such as energy.
• Geographical distribution of human settlements and urban structures. This affects, for example, transportation
requirements.
• Consumption patterns: e.g., housing patterns, leisure activities, etc.
• Trade patterns: the degree of protectionism and the creation of regional trading blocks can affect availability to
technology.
Economics of global warming 295

Trends and projections

Emissions
The Kaya identity expresses the level of energy related CO2 emissions as the product of four indicators (Rogner et
al., 2007, p. 107):[10]
• Carbon intensity. This is the CO2 emissions per unit of total primary energy supply (TPES)
• Energy intensity. This is the TPES per unit of gross domestic product (GDP)
• GDP per capita (GDP/cap)
• Population
GDP/capita and population growth were the main drivers of the increase in global emissions during the last three
decades of the 20th century. At the global scale, declining carbon and energy intensities have been unable to offset
these effects, and consequently, carbon emissions have risen.
• Projections:
• Without additional policies to cut GHG emissions (including efforts to reduce deforestation), they are
projected to increase between 25% and 90% by 2030 relative to their 2000 levels (Rogner et al., 2007:111).
Two thirds to three quarters of the increase in CO2 emissions are projected to come from developing countries,
although the average per capita CO2 emissions in developing country regions will remain substantially lower
than those in developed country regions.
• By 2100, projections range from a 40% reduction to an increase in emissions of 250% above their levels in
2000. Atmospheric concentrations of GHG emissions are unlikely to stabilize this century without major
policy changes.

Concentrations
Rogner et al. (2007:102) reported that the then-current estimated total atmospheric concentration of long-lived
GHGs was around 455 parts-per-million (ppm) CO2-eq (range: 433-477 ppm CO2-eq). The effects of aerosol and
land-use change changes reduced the physical effect (the radiative forcing) of this to 311 to 435 ppm CO2-eq, with a
central estimate of about 375 ppm CO2-eq.
• SRES Projections: At the time they were developed, the range of global emissions projected across all forty of
the SRES scenarios covered the 5th% to 95th% percentile range of the emission scenarios literature (Morita et al.,
2001:146).[8] The forty SRES scenarios are classified into six groups, with an illustrative scenario for each group.
Under these six illustrative scenarios, the projected concentration of CO2 in the year 2100 ranges from 540 to 970
ppm (IPCC, 2001b:8).[11] Uncertainties over aspects of climate science, such as the GHG removal process of
carbon sinks, mean that the total projected concentration ranges from 490 to 1,260 ppm. This compares to a
pre-industrial (taken as the year 1750) concentration of about 280 ppm, and a concentration of about 368 ppm in
the year 2000.

Cost-benefit analysis
Standard cost-benefit analysis can be applied to the problem of climate change (Goldemberg et al.,
1996:24,31-32).[12] This requires (1) the valuation of costs and benefits using the willingness to pay as a measure of
value, and (2) a criterion for accepting or rejecting proposals:
(1) The valuation of costs and benefits of climate change is difficult because some climate change impacts are
difficult to assign a value to, e.g., ecosystems and human health. It is also impossible to know the preferences of
future generations, which affects the valuation of costs and benefits (DeCanio, 2007:4).[13]
(2) The standard criterion is the compensation principle. According to the compensation principle, so long as those
benefitting from a particular project compensate the losers, and there is still something left over, then the result is an
Economics of global warming 296

unambiguous gain in welfare. If there are no mechanisms allowing compensation to be paid, then it is necessary to
assign weights to particular individuals.
One of the mechanisms for compensation is impossible for this problem: mitigation might benefit future generations
at the expense of current generations, but there is no way that future generations can compensate current generations
for the costs of mitigation (DeCanio, 2007:4). On the other hand, should future generations bear most of the costs of
climate change, compensation to them would not be possible (Goldemberg et al., 1996:32). Another transfer for
compensation exists between regions and populations. If, for example, some countries were to benefit from future
climate change but others lose out, there is no guarantee that the winners would compensate the losers.
Risk
In a cost-benefit analysis, an acceptable risk means that the benefits of a climate policy outweigh the costs of the
policy (Halsnæs et al., 2007).[14] The standard rule used by public and private decision makers is that a risk will be
acceptable if the expected net present value is positive. The expected value is the mean of the distribution of
expected outcomes (Goldemberg et al., 1996, p. 25).[12] In other words, it is the average expected outcome for a
particular decision. This criterion has been justified on the basis that:
• a policy's benefits and costs have known probabilities
• economic agents (people and organizations) can diversify their own risk through insurance and other markets.
On the first point, probabilities for climate change are difficult to calculate. Also, some impacts, such as those on
human health and biodiversity, are difficult to value. On the second point, it has been suggested that insurance could
be bought against climate change risks. In practice, however, there are difficulties in implementing the necessary
policies to diversify climate change risks.

Risk
One of the problems of climate change are the large uncertainties over the potential impacts of climate change, and
the costs and benefits of actions taken in response to climate change, e.g., in reducing GHG emissions (Toth et al.,
2001, p. 608).[15] Two related ways of thinking about the problem of climate change decision-making in the presence
of uncertainty are iterative risk management (Fisher et al., 2007;[16] Yohe, 2010)[17] and sequential decision making
(Toth et al., 2001).[18] Considerations in a risk-based approach might include, for example, the potential for
low-probability, worst-case climate change impacts (Barker et al., 2007a).[19]
An approach based on sequential decision making recognises that, over time, decisions related to climate change can
be revised in the light of improved information (Goldemberg et al., 1996, p. 26).[12] This is particularly important
with respect to climate change, due to the long-term nature of the problem. A near-term hedging strategy concerned
with reducing future climate impacts might favour stringent, near-term emissions reductions (Toth et al., 2001,
pp. 612-613).[20] Such an approach would allow for greater future flexibility with regard to a low stabilization target,
e.g., 450 ppmv CO2. To put it differently, stringent near-term emissions abatement can be seen as having an option
value in allowing for lower, long-term stabilization targets. This option may be lost if near-term emissions abatement
is less stringent.
On the other hand, a view may be taken that points to the benefits of improved information over time. This may
suggest an approach where near-term emissions abatement is more modest (Defra/HM Treasury, 2005).[21] Another
way of viewing the problem is to look at the potential irreversibility of future climate change impacts (e.g., damages
to ecosystems) against the irreversibility of making investments in efforts to reduce emissions (Goldemberg et al.,
1996, p. 26; see also Economics of climate change mitigation#Irreversible impacts and policy).
Economics of global warming 297

Resilient and adaptive strategies


CCSP (2009, p. 59) suggested two related decision-making management strategies that might be particularly
appealing when faced with high uncertainty.[22] The first were resilient strategies. This seeks to identify a range of
possible future circumstances, and then choose approaches that work reasonably well across all the range. The
second were adaptive strategies. The idea here is to choose strategies that can be improved as more is learned as the
future progresses. CCSP (2009) contrasted these two approaches with the cost-benefit approach, which seeks to find
an optimal strategy.

Portfolio theory
An example of a strategy that is based on risk is portfolio theory. This suggests that a reasonable response to
uncertainty is to have a wide portfolio of possible responses. In the case of climate change, mitigation can be viewed
as an effort to reduce the chance of climate change impacts (Goldemberg et al., 1996, p. 24).[12] Adaptation acts as
insurance against the chance that unfavourable impacts occur. The risk associated with these impacts can also be
spread. As part of a policy portfolio, climate research can help when making future decisions. Technology research
can help to lower future costs.

Optimal choices and risk aversion


The optimal result of decision analysis depends on what criterion is chosen to define what "optimal" is (Arrow et al.,
1996, pp. 62–63. See also the section on trade offs).[23] In a decision analysis based on cost-benefit analysis, the
optimal policy is evaluated in economic terms. The optimal result of cost-benefit analysis maximizes net benefits.
Another type of decision analysis is cost-effectiveness analysis. This is similar to cost-benefit analysis, except that
the assessed benefit, or policy target, is set outside of the analysis.
The actual choice of a criterion for deciding the optimal result of decision analysis is a subjective decision. The
choice of criterion is made outside of the analysis. One of the influences on this choice on this is attitude to risk. Risk
aversion describes how willing or unwilling someone is to take risks. Evidence indicates that most, but not all,
individuals prefer certain outcomes to uncertain ones. Risk-averse individuals prefer decision criteria that reduce the
chance of the worst possible outcome, while risk-seeking individuals prefer decision criteria that maximize the
chance of the best possible outcome. In terms of returns on investment, if society as a whole is risk-averse, we might
be willing to accept some investments with negative expected returns, e.g., in mitigation (Goldemberg et al., 1996,
p. 24).[12] Such investments may help to reduce the possibility of future climate damages or the costs of adaptation.

International insurance
Traditional insurance works by transferring risk to those better able or more willing to bear risk, and also by the
pooling of risk (Goldemberg et al., 1996, p. 25).[12] Since the risks of climate change are, to some extent, correlated,
this reduces the effectiveness of pooling. However, there is reason to believe that different regions will be affected
differently by climate change. This suggests that pooling might be effective. Since developing countries appear to be
potentially most at risk from the effects of climate change, developed countries could provide insurance against these
risks.
Authors have pointed to several reasons why commercial insurance markets cannot adequately cover risks associated
with climate change (Arrow et al., 1996, p. 72).[23] For example, there is no international market where individuals
or countries can insure themselves against losses from climate change or related climate change policies.
Financial markets for risk
There are several options for how insurance could be used in responding to climate change (Arrow et al., 1996,
p. 72).[23] One response could be to have binding agreements between countries. Countries suffering
greater-than-average climate-related losses would be assisted by those suffering less-than-average losses. This would
Economics of global warming 298

be a type of mutual insurance contract. Another approach would be to trade "risk securities" among countries. These
securities would amount to betting on particular climate outcomes.
These two approaches would allow for a more efficient distribution of climate change risks. They would also allow
for different beliefs over future climate outcomes. For example, it has been suggested that these markets might
provide an objective test of the honesty of a particular country's beliefs over climate change. Countries that honestly
believe that climate change presents little risk would be more prone to hold securities against these risks.

Impacts

Distribution of impacts
|Climate change impacts can be measured as an economic cost (Smith et al., 2001, pp. 936-941).[24] This is
particularly well-suited to market impacts, that is impacts that are linked to market transactions and directly affect
GDP. Monetary measures of non-market impacts, e.g., impacts on human health and ecosystems, are more difficult
to calculate. Other difficulties with impact estimates are listed below:
• Knowledge gaps: Calculating distributional impacts requires detailed geographical knowledge, but these are a
major source of uncertainty in climate models.
• Vulnerability: Compared with developed countries, there is a limited understanding of the potential market
sector impacts of climate change in developing countries.
• Adaptation: The future level of adaptive capacity in human and natural systems to climate change will affect
how society will be impacted by climate change. Assessments may under- or overestimate adaptive capacity,
leading to under- or overestimates of positive or negative impacts.
• Socioeconomic trends: Future predictions of development affect estimates of future climate change impacts, and
in some instances, different estimates of development trends lead to a reversal from a predicted positive, to a
predicted negative, impact (and vice versa).
In a literature assessment, Smith et al. (2001, pp. 957-958) concluded, with medium confidence, that:
• climate change would increase income inequalities between and within countries.
• a small increase in global mean temperature (up to 2 °C, measured against 1990 levels) would result in net
negative market sector impacts in many developing countries and net positive market sector impacts in many
developed countries.
With high confidence, it was predicted that with a medium (2-3 °C) to high level of warming (greater than 3 °C),
negative impacts would be exacerbated, and net positive impacts would start to decline and eventually turn negative.

Aggregate impacts
Aggregating impacts adds up the total impact of climate change across sectors and/or regions (IPCC, 2007a,
p. 76).[25] In producing aggregate impacts, there are a number of difficulties, such as predicting the ability of
societies to adapt climate change, and estimating how future economic and social development will progress (Smith
et al., 2001, p. 941).[24] It is also necessary for the researcher to make subjective value judgements over the
importance of impacts occurring in different economic sectors, in different regions, and at different times.
Smith et al. (2001, p. 958) assessed the literature on the aggregate impacts of climate change. With medium
confidence, they concluded that a small increase in global average temperature (up to 2 °C, measured against 1990
levels) would result in an aggregate market sector impact of plus or minus a few percent of world GDP. Smith et al.
(2001) found that for a small to medium (2-3 °C) global average temperature increase, some studies predicted small
net positive market impacts. Most studies they assessed predicted net damages beyond a medium temperature
increase, with further damages for greater (more than 3 °C) temperature rises.
Comparison with SRES projections
Economics of global warming 299

IPCC (2001, p. 74) compared their literature assessment of the aggregate market sector impacts of climate change
against projections of future increases in global mean temperature.[26] Temperature projections were based on the six
illustrative SRES emissions scenarios. Projections for the year 2025 ranged from 0.4 to 1.1 °C. For 2050, projections
ranged from 0.8 to 2.6 °C, and for 2100, 1.4 to 5.8 °C. These temperature projections correspond to atmospheric CO2
concentrations of 405-460 ppm for the year 2025, 445-640 ppm for 2050, and 540-970 ppm for 2100.

Adaptation and vulnerability


IPCC (2007a) defined adaptation (to climate change) as "[initiatives] and measures to reduce the vulnerability of
natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects" (p. 76).[25] Vulnerability (to climate
change) was defined as "the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of
climate change, including climate variability and extremes" (p. 89).

Autonomous and planned adaptation


Autonomous adaptation are adaptations that are reactive to climatic stimuli, and are done as a matter of course
without the intervention of a public agency. Planned adaptation can be reactive or anticipatory, i.e., undertaken
before impacts are apparent. Some studies suggest that human systems have considerable capacity to adapt
autonomously (Smit et al., 2001:890).[27] Others point to constraints on autonomous adaptation, such as limited
information and access to resources (p. 890). Smit et al. (2001:904) concluded that relying on autonomous
adaptation to climate change would result in substantial ecological, social, and economic costs. In their view, these
costs could largely be avoided with planned adaptation.

Costs and benefits


A literature assessment by Adger et al. (2007:719) concluded that there was a lack of comprehensive, global cost and
benefit estimates for adaptation.[28] Studies were noted that provided cost estimates of adaptation at regional level,
e.g., for sea-level rise. A number of adaptation measures were identified as having high benefit-cost ratios.

Adaptive capacity
Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change. Smit et al. (2001:895-897) described the
determinants of adaptive capacity:[27]
• Economic resources: Wealthier nations are better able to bear the costs of adaptation to climate change than
poorer ones.
• Technology: Lack of technology can impede adaptation.
• Information and skills: Information and trained personnel are required to assess and implement successful
adaptation options.
• Social infrastructure
• Institutions: Nations with well-developed social institutions are believed to have greater adaptive capacity than
those with less effective institutions, typically developing nations and economies in transition.
• Equity: Some believe that adaptive capacity is greater where there are government institutions and arrangements
in place that allow equitable access to resources.
Smit et al. (2001) concluded that:
• countries with limited economic resources, low levels of technology, poor information and skills, poor
infrastructure, unstable or weak institutions, and inequitable empowerment and access to resources have little
adaptive capacity and are highly vulnerable to climate change (p. 879).
• developed nations, broadly speaking, have greater adaptive capacity than developing regions or countries in
economic transition (p. 897).
Economics of global warming 300

Enhancing adaptive capacity


Smit et al. (2001:905) concluded that enhanced adaptive capacity would reduce vulnerability to climate change. In
their view, activities that enhance adaptive capacity are essentially equivalent to activities that promote sustainable
development.[27] These activities include (p. 899):
• improving access to resources
• reducing poverty
• lowering inequities of resources and wealth among groups
• improving education and information
• improving infrastructure
• improving institutional capacity and efficiency
Goklany (1995) concluded that promoting free trade - e.g., through the removal of international trade barriers - could
enhance adaptive capacity and contribute to economic growth.[29]

Regions
With high confidence, Smith et al. (2001:957-958) concluded that developing countries would tend to be more
vulnerable to climate change than developed countries.[24] Based on then-current development trends, Smith et al.
(2001:940-941) predicted that few developing countries would have the capacity to efficiently adapt to climate
change.
• Africa: In a literature assessment, Boko et al. (2007:435) concluded, with high confidence, that Africa's major
economic sectors had been vulnerable to observed climate variability.[30] This vulnerability was judged to have
contributed to Africa's weak adaptive capacity, resulting in Africa having high vulnerability to future climate
change. It was thought likely that projected sea-level rise would increase the socio-economic vulnerability of
African coastal cities.
• Asia: Lal et al. (2001:536) reviewed the literature on adaptation and vulnerability. With medium confidence, they
concluded that climate change would result in the degradation of permafrost in boreal Asia, worsening the
vulnerability of climate-dependent sectors, and affecting the region's economy.[31]
• Australia and New Zealand: Hennessy et al. (2007:509) reviewed the literature on adaptation and
vulnerability.[32] With high confidence, they concluded that in Australia and New Zealand, most human systems
had considerable adaptive capacity. With medium confidence, some Indigenous communities were judged to have
low adaptive capacity.
• Europe: In a literature assessment, Kundzewicz et al. (2001:643) concluded, with very high confidence, that the
adaptation potential of socioeconomic systems in Europe was relatively high.[33] This was attributed to Europe's
high GNP, stable growth, stable population, and well-developed political, institutional, and technological support
systems.
• Latin America: In a literature assessment, Mata et al. (2001:697) concluded that the adaptive capacity of
socioeconomic systems in Latin America was very low, particularly in regard to extreme weather events, and that
the region's vulnerability was high.[34]
• Polar regions: Anisimov et al. (2001, pp. 804–805) concluded that:[35]
• within the Antarctic and Arctic, at localities where water was close to melting point, socioeconomic systems
were particularly vulnerable to climate change.
• the Arctic would be extremely vulnerable to climate change. Anisimov et al. (2001) predicted that there would
be major ecological, sociological, and economic impacts in the region.
• Small islands: Mimura et al. (2007, p. 689) concluded, with very high confidence, that small islands were
particularly vulnerable to climate change.[36] Partly this was attributed to their low adaptive capacity and the high
costs of adaptation in proportion to their GDP.
Economics of global warming 301

Systems and sectors


• Coasts and low-lying areas: According to Nicholls et al. (2007, p. 336), societal vulnerability to climate change
is largely dependent on development status.[37] Developing countries lack the necessary financial resources to
relocate those living in low-lying coastal zones, making them more vulnerable to climate change than developed
countries. With high confidence, Nicholls et al. (2007, p. 317) concluded that on vulnerable coasts, the costs of
adapting to climate change are lower than the potential damage costs.[38]
• Industry, settlements and society:
• At the scale of a large nation or region, at least in most industrialized economies, the economic value of sectors
with low vulnerability to climate change greatly exceeds that of sectors with high vulnerability (Wilbanks et
al., 2007, p. 366).[39] Additionally, the capacity of a large, complex economy to absorb climate-related
impacts, is often considerable. Consequently, estimates of the aggregate damages of climate change - ignoring
possible abrupt climate change - are often rather small as a percentage of economic production. On the other
hand, at smaller scales, e.g., for a small country, sectors and societies might be highly vulnerable to climate
change. Potential climate change impacts might therefore amount to very severe damages.
• Wilbanks et al. (2007, p. 359) concluded, with very high confidence, that vulnerability to climate change
depends considerably on specific geographic, sectoral and social contexts. In their view, these vulnerabilities
are not reliably estimated by large-scale aggregate modelling.[40]

Mitigation
Mitigation of climate change involves actions that are designed to limit the amount of long-term climate change
(Fisher et al., 2007:225).[9] Mitigation may be achieved through the reduction of GHG emissions or through the
enhancement of sinks that absorb GHGs, e.g., forests.

International public goods


The atmosphere is an international public good, and GHG emissions are an international externality (Goldemberg et
al., 1996:21, 28, 43).[12] A change in the quality of the atmosphere does not affect the welfare of all individuals
equally. In other words, some individuals may benefit from climate change, while others may lose out. This uneven
distribution of potential climate change impacts, plus the uneven distribution of emissions globally, make it difficult
to secure a global agreement to reduce emissions (Halsnæs et al., 2007:127).[41]

Policies

National
Both climate and non-climate policies can affect emissions growth. Non-climate policies that can affect emissions
are listed below (Bashmakov et al., 2001:409-410):[42]
• Market-orientated reforms can have important impacts on energy use, energy efficiency, and therefore GHG
emissions.
• Price and subsidy policies: Many countries provide subsidies for activities that impact emissions, e.g., subsidies
in the agriculture and energy sectors, and indirect subsidies for transport.
• Market liberalization: Restructuring of energy markets has occurred in several countries and regions. These
policies have mainly been designed to increase competition in the market, but they can have a significant impact
on emissions.
There are a number of policies that might be used to mitigate climate change, including (Bashmakov et al.,
2001:412-422):
• Regulatory standards, e.g., technology or performance standards.
Economics of global warming 302

• Market-based instruments, such as emissions taxes and tradable permits.


• Voluntary agreements between public agencies and industry.
• Informational instruments, e.g., to increase public awareness of climate change.
• Use of subsidies and financial incentives, e.g., feed-in tariffs for renewable energy (Gupta et al., 2007:762).[43]
• Removal of subsidies, e.g., for coal mining and burning (Barker et al., 2001:567-568).[44]
• Demand-side management, which aims to reduce energy demand through energy audits, product labelling, etc.

International
• The Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC sets out legally binding emission reduction commitments for the "Annex B"
countries (Verbruggen, 2007, p. 817).[45] The Protocol defines three international policy instruments ("Flexibility
Mechanisms") which can be used by the Annex B countries to meet their emission reduction commitments.
According to Bashmakov et al. (2001:402), use of these instruments could significantly reduce the costs for
Annex B countries in meeting their emission reduction commitments.[42]
• Other possible policies include internationally coordinated carbon taxes and/or regulation (Bashmakov et al.,
2001:430).

Cost estimates
According to a literature assessment by Barker et al. (2007b:622), mitigation cost estimates depend critically on the
baseline (in this case, a reference scenario that the alternative scenario is compared with), the way costs are
modelled, and assumptions about future government policy.[46] Fisher et al. (2007) estimated macroeconomic costs
in 2030 for multi-gas mitigation (reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and other GHGs, such as methane) as
between a 3% decrease in global GDP to a small increase, relative to baseline.[9] This was for an emissions pathway
consistent with atmospheric stabilization of GHGs between 445 and 710 ppm CO2-eq. In 2050, the estimated costs
for stabilization between 710 and 445 ppm CO2-eq ranged between a 1% gain to a 5.5% decrease in global GDP,
relative to baseline. These cost estimates were supported by a moderate amount of evidence and much agreement in
the literature (IPCC, 2007b:11,18).[47]
Macroeconomic cost estimates made by Fisher et al. (2007:204) were mostly based on models that assumed
transparent markets, no transaction costs, and perfect implementation of cost-effective policy measures across all
regions throughout the 21st century. According to Fisher et al. (2007), relaxation of some or all these assumptions
would lead to an appreciable increase in cost estimates. On the other hand, IPCC (2007b:8) noted that cost estimates
could be reduced by allowing for accelerated technological learning, or the possible use of carbon tax/emission
permit revenues to reform national tax systems.
• Regional costs were estimated as possibly being significantly different from the global average. Regional costs
were found to be largely dependent on the assumed stabilization level and baseline scenario.
• Sectoral costs: In a literature assessment, Barker et al. (2001:563-564), predicted that the renewables sector could
potentially benefit from mitigation.[44] The coal (and possibly the oil) industry was predicted to potentially lose
substantial proportions of output relative to a baseline scenario, with energy-intensive sectors, such as heavy
chemicals, facing higher costs.

Adaptation and mitigation


The distribution of benefits from adaptation and mitigation policies are different in terms of damages avoided (Toth
et al., 2001:653).[20] Adaptation activities mainly benefit those who implement them, while mitigation benefits
others who may not have made mitigation investments. Mitigation can therefore be viewed as a global public good,
while adaptation is either a private good in the case of autonomous adaptation, or a national or regional public good
in the case of public sector policies.
Economics of global warming 303

Paying for an international public good


Economists generally agree on the following two principles (Goldemberg, et al.., 1996:29):[12]
• For the purposes of analysis, it is possible to separate equity from efficiency. This implies that all emitters,
regardless of whether they are rich or poor, should pay the full social costs of their actions. From this perspective,
corrective (Pigouvian) taxes should be applied uniformly (see carbon tax#Economic theory).
• It is inappropriate to redress all equity issues through climate change policies. However, climate change itself
should not aggravate existing inequalities between different regions.
Some early studies suggested that a uniform carbon tax would be a fair and efficient way of reducing emissions
(Banuri et al., 1996, pp. 103–104).[48] A carbon tax is a Pigouvian tax, and taxes fuels based on their carbon content
(Hoeller and Wallin, 1991, p. 92).[49] Criticisms have been made of such a system:
• A carbon tax would impose different burdens on countries due to existing differences in tax structures, resource
endowments, and development.
• Most observers argue that such a tax would not be fair because of differences in historical emissions and current
wealth.
• A uniform carbon tax would not be Pareto efficient unless lump sum transfers were made between countries.
Pareto efficiency requires that the carbon tax would not make any countries worse off than they would be without
the tax (Chichilnisky and Heal, 1994, p. 445;[50] Tol, 2001, p. 72).[51] Also, at least one country would need to be
better off.
An alternative approach to having a Pigouvian tax is one based on property rights. A practical example of this would
be a system of emissions trading, which is essentially a privatization of the atmosphere (Hepburn, 2007).[52] The idea
of using property rights in response to an externality was put forward by Coase (1960). Coase's model of social cost
assumes a situation of equal bargaining power among participants and equal costs of making the bargain (Toth et
al.., 2001:668).[20] Assigning property rights can be an efficient solution. This is based on the assumption that there
are no bargaining/transaction costs involved in buying or selling these property rights, and that buyers and sellers
have perfect information available when making their decisions.
If these assumptions are correct, efficiency is achieved regardless of how property rights are allocated. In the case of
emissions trading, this suggests that equity and efficiency can be addressed separately: equity is taken care of in the
allocation of emission permits, and efficiency is promoted by the market system. In reality, however, markets do not
live up to the ideal conditions that are assumed in Coase's model, with the result that there may be trade-offs between
efficiency and equity (Halsnæs et al., 2007).[53]

Efficiency and equity


No scientific consensus exists on who should bear the burden of adaptation and mitigation costs (Goldemberg et al..,
1996:29).[12] Several different arguments have been made over how to spread the costs and benefits of taxes or
systems based on emissions trading.
One approach considers the problem from the perspective of who benefits most from the public good. This approach
is sensitive to the fact that different preferences exist between different income classes. The public good is viewed in
a similar way as a private good, where those who use the public good must pay for it. Some people will benefit more
from the public good than others, thus creating inequalities in the absence of benefit taxes. A difficulty with public
goods is determining who exactly benefits from the public good. Additionally, this approach does not provide
guidance as to how the surplus of benefits from climate policy should be shared.
A second approach has been suggested based on economics and the social welfare function. To calculate the social
welfare function requires an aggregation of the impacts of climate change policies and climate change itself across
all affected individuals. This calculation involves a number of complexities and controversial equity issues
(Markandya et al., 2001:460).[54] For example, the monetization of certain impacts on human health. There is also
controversy over the issue of benefits affecting one individual offsetting negative impacts on another (Smith et al..,
Economics of global warming 304

2001:958).[24] These issues to do with equity and aggregation cannot be fully resolved by economics (Banuri et al..,
1996:87).[48]
On a utilitarian basis, which has traditionally been used in welfare economics, an argument can be made for richer
countries taking on most of the burdens of mitigation (Halsnæs et al., 2007).[55] However, another result is possible
with a different modeling of impacts. If an approach is taken where the interests of poorer people have lower
weighting, the result is that there is a much weaker argument in favour of mitigation action in rich countries. Valuing
climate change impacts in poorer countries less than domestic climate change impacts (both in terms of policy and
the impacts of climate change) would be consistent with observed spending in rich countries on foreign aid
(Hepburn, 2005;[56] Helm, 2008:229).[57]
In terms of the social welfare function, the different results depend on the elasticity of marginal utility. A declining
marginal utility of consumption means that a poor person is judged to benefit more from increases in consumption
relative to a richer person. A constant marginal utility of consumption does not make this distinction, and leads to the
result that richer countries should mitigate less.
A third approach looks at the problem from the perspective of who has contributed most to the problem. Because the
industrialized countries have contributed more than two-thirds of the stock of human-induced GHGs in the
atmosphere, this approach suggests that they should bear the largest share of the costs. This stock of emissions has
been described as an "environmental debt" (Munasinghe et al., 1996, p. 167).[58] In terms of efficiency, this view is
not supported. This is because efficiency requires incentives to be forward-looking, and not retrospective
(Goldemberg et al., 1996, p. 29). The question of historical responsibility is a matter of ethics. Munasinghe et al.
(1996, p. 167) suggested that developed countries could address the issue by making side-payments to developing
countries.

Trade offs
It is often argued in the literature that there is a trade-off between adaptation and mitigation, in that the resources
committed to one are not available for the other (Schneider et al., 2001:94).[59] This is debatable in practice because
the people who bear emission reduction costs or benefits are often different from those who pay or benefit from
adaptation measures.
There is also a trade off in how much damage from climate change should be avoided. The assumption that it is
always possible to trade off different outcomes is viewed as problematic by many people (Halsnæs et al., 2007).[60]
For example, a trade off might exist between economic growth and damages faced by indigenous cultures.
Some of the literature has pointed to difficulties in these kinds of assumptions. For instance, there may be aversion at
any price towards losing particular species. It has also been suggested that low-probability, extreme outcomes are
overweighted when making choices. This is related to climate change, since the possibility of future abrupt changes
in the climate or the Earth system cannot be ruled out. For example, if the West Antarctic ice sheet was to
disintegrate, it could result in a sea level rise of 4–6 meters over several centuries.
Cost-benefit analysis
In a cost-benefit analysis, the trade offs between climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation are made
explicit. Cost-benefit analyses of climate change are produced using integrated assessment models (IAMs), which
incorporate aspects of the natural, social, and economic sciences.
In an IAM designed for cost-benefit analysis, the costs and benefits of impacts, adaptation and mitigation are
converted into monetary estimates. Some view the monetization of costs and benefits as controversial (see Economic
impacts of climate change#Aggregate impacts). The "optimal" levels of mitigation and adaptation are then resolved
by comparing the marginal costs of action with the marginal benefits of avoided climate change damages (Toth et
al., 2001:654).[20] The decision over what "optimal" is depends on subjective value judgements made by the author
of the study (Azar, 1998).[61]
Economics of global warming 305

There are many uncertainties that affect cost-benefit analysis, for example, sector- and country-specific damage
functions (Toth et al., 2001:654). Another example is with adaptation. The options and costs for adaptation are
largely unknown, especially in developing countries.

Results
A common finding of cost-benefit analysis is that the optimum level of emissions reduction is modest in the
near-term, with more stringent abatement in the longer-term (Stern, 2007:298;[62] Heal, 2008:20;[63] Barker,
2008).[64] This approach might lead to a warming of more than 3 °C above the pre-industrial level (World Bank,
2010:8).[65] In most models, benefits exceed costs for stabilization of GHGs leading to warming of 2.5 °C. No
models suggest that the optimal policy is to do nothing, i.e., allow "business-as-usual" emissions.
Along the efficient emission path calculated by Nordhaus and Boyer (2000) (referred to by Fisher et al.., 2007), the
long-run global average temperature after 500 years increases by 6.2 °C above the 1900 level.[66] Nordhaus and
Boyer (2000) stated their concern over the potentially large and uncertain impacts of such a large environmental
change. It should be noted that the projected temperature in this IAM, like any other, is subject to scientific
uncertainty (e.g., the relationship between concentrations of GHGs and global mean temperature, which is called the
climate sensitivity). Projections of future atmospheric concentrations based on emission pathways are also affected
by scientific uncertainties, e.g., over how carbon sinks, such as forests, will be affected by future climate change.
Klein et al. (2007) concluded that there were few high quality studies in this area, and placed low confidence in the
results of cost-benefit analysis.[67]
Hof et al. (2008) (referred to by World Bank, 2010:8) examined the sensitivity of the optimal climate target to
assumptions about the time horizon, climate sensitivity, mitigation costs, likely damages, and discount rates. The
optimal target was defined as the concentration that would result in the lowest reduction in the present value (i.e.,
discounted) of global consumption. A set of assumptions that included a relatively high climate sensitivity (i.e., a
relatively large global temperature increase for a given increase in GHGs), high damages, a long time horizon, low
discount rates (i.e., future consumption is valued relatively highly), and low mitigation costs, produced an optimum
peak in the concentration of CO2e at 540 parts per million (ppm). Another set of assumptions that assumed a lower
climate sensitivity (lower global temperature increase), lower damages, a shorter time horizon, and a higher discount
rate (present consumption is valued relatively more highly), produced an optimum peaking at 750 ppm.

Strengths
In spite of various uncertainties or possible criticisms of cost-benefit analysis, it does have several strengths:
• It offers an internally consistent and global comprehensive analysis of impacts (Smith et al., 2001:955).[24]
• Sensitivity analysis allows critical assumptions in the analysis to be changed. This can identify areas where the
value of information is highest and where additional research might have the highest payoffs (Downing, et al.,
2001:119).[68]
• As uncertainty is reduced, the integrated models used in producing cost-benefit analysis might become more
realistic and useful.

Geoengineering
Geoengineering are technological efforts to stabilize the climate system by direct intervention in the
Earth-atmosphere-system's energy balance (Verbruggen, 2007, p. 815).[69] The intent of geoengineering is to reduce
the amount of global warming (the observed trend of increased global average temperature (NRC, 2008, p. 2)).[70]
IPCC (2007b:15) concluded that reliable cost estimates for geoengineering options had not been published.[47] This
finding was based on medium agreement in the literature and limited evidence.
Economics of global warming 306

Major reports considering economics of climate change


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced several reports where the economics
literature on climate change is assessed. In 1995, the IPCC produced its second set of assessment reports on climate
change. Working Group III of the IPCC produced a report on the "Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate
Change." In the later third and fourth IPCC assessments, published in 2001 and 2007 respectively, the assessment of
the economics literature is divided across two reports produced by IPCC Working Groups II and III.
The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change is a 700-page report released for the British government on
October 30, 2006 by economist Nicholas Stern chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the
Environment at the London School of Economics. The report discusses the effect of global warming on the world
economy.
The Garnaut Climate Change Review was a study by Professor Ross Garnaut, commissioned by then Opposition
Leader, Kevin Rudd[71] and by the Australian State and Territory Governments on 30 April 2007. After his election
on 24 November 2007 Prime Minister of Australia Kevin Rudd confirmed the participation of the Commonwealth
Government in the Review.

References
[1] Baede, A.P.M. (ed) (2007). "Glossary A-D" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg1/ en/ annex1sglossary-a-d. html). In
Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller. Climate Change 2007: Working Group I:
The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Print version: Printed by Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. Web version: IPCC website. .
[2] Albritton, D.L. et al. (2001). "Box 1: What drives changes in climate? In (book section): Technical Summary" (http:/ / www. grida. no/
publications/ other/ ipcc_tar/ ). In Houghton, J.T. et al.. Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Printed by Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. Web version: UNEP/GRID-Arendal website. .
[3] NRC (2008). "Understanding and Responding to Climate Change" (http:/ / dels. nas. edu/ resources/ static-assets/ materials-based-on-reports/
booklets/ climate_change_2008_final. pdf) (PDF). Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (http:/ / dels. nas. edu/ basc), US National
Academy of Sciences. p. 4. . Retrieved 2010-11-09.
[4] America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change; National Research Council (2010). What we know about
climate change. In (book section): Summary. In: Advancing the Science of Climate Change (pre-publication edition) (http:/ / books. nap. edu/
openbook. php?record_id=12782& page=2). The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.. p. 2. .
[5] Munasinghe, M. et al. (1995). "Applicability of Techniques of Cost-Benefit Analysis to Climate Change" (http:/ / go. worldbank. org/
RBZH3Z1SJ0). In M. Munasinghe. World Bank Environment Paper Number 12: Global Climate Change: Economic and Policy Issues. The
World Bank, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2010-02-11.
[6] US NRC (2001). "Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions" (http:/ / www. nap. edu/ openbook. php?record_id=10139).
National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2010-02-11.
[7] Carter, T.R. et al. (2001). "Developing and Applying Scenarios. In: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [J.J. McCarthy et al.
Eds. (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.,
and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2010-01-10.
[8] Morita, T. et al. (2001). "Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Scenarios and Implications. In: Climate Change 2001: Mitigation.
Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz et al. Eds.
(http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and
New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2010-01-10.
[9] Fisher, B.S. et al. (2007). "Issues related to mitigation in the long term context. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of
Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz et al. Eds. (http:/ / www.
ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y.,
U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[10] Rogner, H.-H., D. Zhou, R. Bradley. P. Crabbé, O. Edenhofer, B.Hare, L. Kuijpers, M. Yamaguchi (2007). 1.3.1.2 Intensities. In (book
chapter): Introduction. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ ch1s1-3-1-2. html). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New
York, NY, USA. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880114. . Retrieved 2010-05-05.
[11] IPCC (2001). "Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to
the Third Assessment Report of the Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R.T. and the Core Writing Team (eds.) (http:/ /
Economics of global warming 307

www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York,
N.Y., U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[12] Goldemberg, J. et al. (1996). "Introduction: scope of the assessment." (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ ipccreports/ sar/ wg_III/
ipcc_sar_wg_III_full_report. pdf). In J.P. Bruce et al. (PDF). Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change.
Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This version: Printed
by Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. Web version: IPCC website. doi:10.2277/0521568544.
ISBN 9780521568548. .
[13] DeCanio, S.J. (October 17, 2007). "Reflections on Climate Change, Economic Development, and Global Equity" (http:/ / www.
stephendecanio. com/ Stephen_DeCanio_Site/ DeCanioLeontief07-1. pdf). The website of Stephen J. DeCanio, Professor of Economics,
Emeritus, at the University of California, Santa Barbara. . Retrieved 2010-02-20.
[14] Halsnæs, K. et al. (2007). "2.3.3 Costs, benefits and uncertainties. Framing issues" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/
en/ ch2s2-3-3. html). In B. Metz et al.. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y.,
U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880114. . Retrieved 2010-05-23.
[15] Toth et al., 2001. 10.1.2.4 Uncertainty Is Pervasive (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg3/ 386. htm)
[16] Fisher, B.S., N. Nakicenovic, K. Alfsen, J. Corfee Morlot, F. de la Chesnaye, J.-Ch. Hourcade, K. Jiang, M. Kainuma, E. La Rovere, A.
Matysek, A. Rana, K. Riahi, R. Richels, S. Rose, D. van Vuuren, R. Warren (2007). 3.5.1.1 An iterative risk-management framework to
articulate options. In: Chapter 3: Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of
Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch,
R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ ch3s3-5-1-1. html). Print version: Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880114. . Retrieved
2010-05-25.
[17] Yohe, G.W. (May 2010). "Addressing Climate Change through a Risk Management Lens. In: Assessing the Benefits of Avoided Climate
Change: Cost-Benefit Analysis and Beyond. (Gulledge, J., L. J. Richardson, L. Adkins, and S. Seidel (eds.)), Proceedings of Workshop on
Assessing the Benefits of Avoided Climate Change, March 16–17, 2009. Pew Center on Global Climate Change: Arlington, VA" (http:/ /
www. pewclimate. org/ events/ 2009/ benefitsworkshop). Pew Center on Global Climate Change. pp. 201–231. . Retrieved 2010-05-25.
[18] Toth et al., 2001. 10.1.4.1 Decision Making under Uncertainty (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg3/ 389. htm#10141)
[19] Barker T., I. Bashmakov, L. Bernstein, J. E. Bogner, P. R. Bosch, R. Dave, O. R. Davidson, B. S. Fisher, S. Gupta, K. Halsnæs, G.J. Heij, S.
Kahn Ribeiro, S. Kobayashi, M. D. Levine, D. L. Martino, O. Masera, B. Metz, L. A. Meyer, G.-J. Nabuurs, A. Najam, N. Nakicenovic, H.
-H. Rogner, J. Roy, J. Sathaye, R. Schock, P. Shukla, R. E. H. Sims, P. Smith, D. A. Tirpak, D. Urge-Vorsatz, D. Zhou (2007a). Article 2 of
the Convention and mitigation. In: Technical summary. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer
(eds)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ tssts-ts-1-3-article-2. html). Print version: Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880114. . Retrieved 2010-05-25.
[20] Toth, F.L. et al. (2001). "Decision-making Frameworks. In: Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the
Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/
publications_and_data_reports. htm). In B. Metz et al. (Eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. .
Retrieved 2010-01-10.
[21] Defra/HM Treasury (21 June 2005). "Minutes of Evidence, Annex 3. In: Session 2005-2006, Second Report, “The Economics of Climate
Change.” Produced by the UK Parliament House of Lords Economics Affairs Select Committee" (http:/ / www. publications. parliament. uk/
pa/ ld200506/ ldselect/ ldeconaf/ 12/ 5030107. htm). UK Parliament website. . Retrieved 2011-03-27.
[22] CCSP (January 2009). "Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in
decisionmaking. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (Granger Morgan,
H. Dowlatabadi, M. Henrion, D. Keith, R. Lempert, S. McBride, M. Small, T. Wilbanks (eds.))" (http:/ / www. globalchange. gov/
publications/ reports/ scientific-assessments/ saps/ 311). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington D.C., USA.. .
Retrieved 2010-05-25.
[23] Arrow, K.J. et al. (1996) (PDF). Decision-making frameworks for addressing climate change. In: Climate Change 1995: Economic and
Social Dimensions of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (J.P. Bruce et al. (eds.)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ ipccreports/ sar/ wg_III/ ipcc_sar_wg_III_full_report. pdf). This version:
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. Web version: IPCC website. doi:10.2277/0521568544.
ISBN 9780521568548. .
[24] Smith, J.B., et al. (2001). "Vulnerability to Climate Change and Reasons for Concern: A Synthesis. In: Climate Change 2001: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (J.J. McCarthy et al. Eds.)" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm). Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2010-01-10.
[25] IPCC (2007a). "Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.))" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report. htm). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. . Retrieved
2009-05-20.
Economics of global warming 308

[26] IPCC (2001). "Table 3-5. In (section): Question 3" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ vol4/ english/ 026. htm). In Watson, R.T. and
the Core Writing Team. Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment
Report of the Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, UK. This version: GRID-Arendal
website. p. 74. . Retrieved 2011-03-29.
[27] Smit, B. et al. (2001). "Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development and Equity. In: Climate Change 2001:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [J.J. McCarthy et al. Eds. (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2010-01-10.
[28] Adger, W.N. et al. (2007). "Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change [M.L. Parry et al. Eds. (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/
publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg2_report_impacts_adaptation_and_vulnerability. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[29] Goklany, I.M. (1995). "Strategies to enhance adaptability: technological change, sustainable growth and free trade" (http:/ / goklany. org/
library/ Goklany 1995 Climatic Change. pdf). Climatic Change 30 (4): 427–449. doi:10.1007/BF01093855. . Retrieved 2010-02-03.
[30] Boko, M., et al. (2007). "Africa. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/
ch9. html). In M.L. Parry et al. Eds.. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. pp. 433–467. . Retrieved
2009-05-20.
[31] Lal, M. et al. (2001). "Asia. In: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the
Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/
ch10. html). In J.J. McCarthy et al. Eds.. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. . Retrieved
2010-01-10.
[32] Hennessy, K. et al. (2007). "Australia and New Zealand. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of
Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch11. html). In M.L. Parry et al. Eds.. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York,
N.Y., U.S.A.. pp. 507–540. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[33] Kundzewicz, Z.W. et al. (2001). "Europe. In: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group
II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/
wg2/ en/ ch12. html). In J.J. McCarthy et al. Eds.. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. . Retrieved
2010-01-10.
[34] Mata, L.J. et al. (2001). "Latin America. In: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group
II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [J.J. McCarthy et al. Eds. (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. .
Retrieved 2010-01-10.
[35] Anisimov, O. et al. (2001). Executive Summary. In (book chapter): Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic). In: Climate Change 2001:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (J.J. McCarthy et al. (eds.)) (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg2/ 593. htm). Print version: Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: GRID-Arendal website. ISBN 0521807689. . Retrieved 2010-05-23.
[36] Mimura, N. et al. (2007). Executive summary. In (book chapter): Small islands. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (M.L.
Parry et al., (eds.)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch16s16-es. html). Print version: Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880107. . Retrieved 2010-05-23.
[37] Nicholls, R.J. et al. (2007). 6.4.3 Key vulnerabilities and hotspots. In (book chapter): Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In: Climate
Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (M.L. Parry et al. (eds.)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch6s6-4-3.
html). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website.
ISBN 9780521880107. . Retrieved 2010-05-23.
[38] Nicholls, R.J. et al. (2007). Executive summary. In (book chapter): Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (M.L. Parry et al. (eds.)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch6s6-es. html). Print version: Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880107. . Retrieved 2010-05-23.
[39] Wilbanks, T.J. et al. (2007). 7.4.1 General effects. In (book chapter): Industry, settlement and society. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (M.L. Parry et al. (eds.)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch7s7-4-1. html). Print version: Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880107. . Retrieved 2010-05-23.
[40] Wilbanks, T.J. et al. (2007). Executive summary. In (book chapter): Industry, settlement and society. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (M.L. Parry et al. (eds.)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch7s7-es. html). Print version: Cambridge
Economics of global warming 309

University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880107. . Retrieved 2010-05-23.
[41] Halsnæs, K. et al. (2007). "Framing issues. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz et al. Eds. (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/
publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[42] Bashmakov, I. et al. (2001). "Policies, Measures, and Instruments. In: Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III
to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz et al. Eds. (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[43] Gupta, S. et al. (2007). "Policies, Instruments and Co-operatuve Arrangements. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of
Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz et al. Eds. (http:/ / www.
ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y.,
U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[44] Barker, T., et al. (2001). "Sectoral Costs and Ancillary Benefits of Mitigation. In: Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of
Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, et al., Eds. (http:/ / www.
ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y.,
U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2010-01-10.
[45] Verbruggen, A. (ed) (2007). Glossary J-P. In (book section): Annex I. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group
III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz et al. (eds.)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ annex1sglossary-j-p. html). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New
York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880114. . Retrieved 2010-05-23.
[46] Barker, T. et al. (2007b). "Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working
Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz et al., Eds. (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. .
Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[47] IPCC (2007b). "Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz et al. Eds. (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/
publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[48] Banuri, T. et al. (1996). "Equity and Social Considerations." (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ ipccreports/ sar/ wg_III/ ipcc_sar_wg_III_full_report.
pdf). In J.P. Bruce et al. (PDF). Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group
III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This version: Printed by Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. Web version: IPCC website. doi:10.2277/0521568544. ISBN 9780521568548. .
[49] Hoeller, P. and M. Wallin (1991). "OECD Economic Studies No. 17, Autumn 1991. Energy Prices, Taxes and Carbon Dioxide Emissions"
(http:/ / www. oecd. org/ dataoecd/ 33/ 26/ 34258255. pdf). OECD website. . Retrieved 2010-04-23.
[50] Chichilnisky, G.; Heal, G. (Spring 1994). "Who should abate carbon emissions? An international viewpoint" (http:/ / chichilnisky. com/
pdfs/ papers/ 93. pdf) (PDF). Economic Letters 44. . Retrieved 2010-05-29.
[51] Tol, R.S.J. (2001). "Equitable cost-benefit analysis of climate change policies" (http:/ / www. mi. uni-hamburg. de/ fileadmin/ fnu-files/
publication/ tol/ ececequity. pdf) (PDF). Ecological Economics 36 (1). . Retrieved 2010-05-29.
[52] Hepburn, C. (November 2007). "Carbon Trading: A Review of the Kyoto Mechanisms" (http:/ / arjournals. annualreviews. org/ eprint/
V5uDHeDwvfmeMnr3IuPZ/ full/ 10. 1146/ annurev. energy. 32. 053006. 141203). Annual Review of Environment and Resources 32:
375–393. doi:10.1146/annurev.energy.32.053006.141203. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[53] Halsnæs, K. et al. (2007). "2.6.5 Economic efficiency and eventual trade-offs with equity. In (book chapter 2): Framing issues." (http:/ /
www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ ch2s2-6-5. html). In B. Metz et al.. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of
Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2010-04-06.
[54] Markandya, A. et al. (2001). "Costing Methodologies." (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm).
In B. Metz et al.. Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. . Retrieved
2010-01-10.
[55] Halsnæs, K. et al. (2007). "2.6.4 Equity consequences of different policy instruments, Chapter 2 Framing issues" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ ch2s2-6-4. html). In B. Metz et al.. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group
III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2010-04-06.
[56] Hepburn, C. (28 February 2005). "Memorandum by Dr Cameron Hepburn, St Hugh's College, University of Oxford." (http:/ / www.
publications. parliament. uk/ pa/ ld200506/ ldselect/ ldeconaf/ 12/ 12we10. htm). The Economics of Climate Change. Second Report of
2005-2006 Volume II, HL Paper No. 12-II. House of Lords Economic Affairs Select Committee. ISBN 019957328X. . Retrieved 2010-04-06.
[57] Helm, D. (1 November 2008). "Climate-change policy: why has so little been achieved?" (http:/ / www. dieterhelm. co. uk/ node/ 671).
Oxford Review of Economic Policy 24 (2): 211–238. doi:10.1093/oxrep/grn014. . Retrieved 2010-04-06.
[58] Munasinghe, M. et al. (1996). "Applicability of Techniques of Cost-Benefit Analysis to Climate Change." (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
ipccreports/ sar/ wg_III/ ipcc_sar_wg_III_full_report. pdf). In J.P. Bruce et al. (PDF). Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social
Dimensions of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Economics of global warming 310

Climate Change. This version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. Web version: IPCC website.
doi:10.2277/0521568544. ISBN 9780521568548. .
[59] Schneider, S. et al. (2001). "Overview of Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability to Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2001: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (J.J. McCarthy et al. Eds.)" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm). Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2010-01-10.
[60] Halsnæs, K. et al. (2007). 2.2.4 Risk of catastrophic or abrupt change. Framing issues. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution
of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz et al. (eds.)) (http:/ /
www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ ch2s2-2-4. html). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New
York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880114. . Retrieved 2010-05-23.
[61] Azar, C. (1998). "Are Optimal CO2 Emissions Really Optimal? Four Critical Issues for Economists in the Greenhouse" (http:/ / www.
hm-treasury. gov. uk/ d/ azar_1998_four_crucial_issues. pdf). Environmental and Resource Economics 11 (3-4): 301–315.
doi:10.1023/A:1008235326513. . Retrieved 2009-01-10.
[62] Stern, N. (2007). "Towards a Goal for Climate-Change Policy. In: Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (pre-publication
edition)" (http:/ / www. hm-treasury. gov. uk/ sternreview_index. htm). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y.,
U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2010-02-25.
[63] Heal, G. (April 2008). "Climate economics: A meta-review and some suggestions. NBER Working Paper 13927" (http:/ / www2. gsb.
columbia. edu/ faculty/ gheal/ EnvironmentalEconomicsPapers/ NBER Climate paper 90198-w13927. pdf). U.S. National Bureau of
Economic Research. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[64] Barker, T. (August 2008). "The economics of avoiding dangerous climate change. An editorial essay on The Stern Review" (http:/ / www.
springerlink. com/ content/ 612k4k5v68r2577m/ ?p=20cde4d2d12e41939a4faac4082d8512& pi=0). Climatic Change 89 (3-4): 173–194.
doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9433-x. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[65] World Bank (2010). "Overview: Changing the Climate for Development. In: World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate
Change" (http:/ / go. worldbank. org/ BKLQ9DSDU0). The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, 1818
H Street NW, Washington DC 20433. . Retrieved 2010-04-06.
[66] Fisher, B.S. et al. (2007). "3.5.3.3 Cost-benefit analysis, damage cost estimates and social costs of carbon. In (book chapter): Issues related
to mitigation in the long term context. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz et al. Eds.)" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/
ch3s3-5-3-3. html). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. .
Retrieved 2010-04-06.
[67] Klein, R.J.T. et al. (2007). "18.4.2 Consideration of costs and damages avoided and/or benefits gained. In (book chapter): Inter-relationships
between adaptation and mitigation. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (M.L. Parry et al. Eds.)" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch18s18-4-2. html). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y.,
U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2010-04-06.
[68] Downing, T.E. et al. (2001). "Methods and Tools. In: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of
Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [J.J. McCarthy et al. Eds. (http:/ / www.
ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y.,
U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2010-01-10.
[69] Verbruggen, A. (ed) (2007). Glossary E-I. In (book section): Annex I. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group
III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz et al. (eds.)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ annex1sglossary-e-i. html). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York,
N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880114. . Retrieved 2010-05-23.
[70] NRC (2008). "Understanding and Responding to Climate Change" (http:/ / dels. nas. edu/ resources/ static-assets/
materials-based-on-reports/ booklets/ climate_change_2008_final. pdf). US National Academy of Sciences. . Retrieved 2010-11-09.
[71] Garnaut Climate Change Review Draft Report (PDF) (http:/ / www. garnautreview. org. au/ CA25734E0016A131/ WebObj/
GarnautClimateChangeReview-DraftReport-Ch1andPrelim/ $File/ Garnaut Climate Change Review - Draft Report - Ch 1 and Prelim. pdf)
Economics of global warming 311

Further reading
• DESA (2009) (PDF). World Economic and Social Survey 2009: Promoting Development, Saving the Planet.
Produced by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (http://www.un.
org/esa/policy/wess/wess2009files/wess09/wess2009.pdf). Printed by the United Nations, Publishing Section,
New York. ISBN 9789211091595. Retrieved 2010-06-08.
• IMF (April 2008). "Chapter 4. Climate Change and the Global Economy. In: World Economic and Financial
Surveys: World Economic Outlook: Housing and the Business Cycle" (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/
weo/2008/01/index.htm). IMF website. Retrieved 2010-04-21.
• IPCC (1996). "Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of
Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (J.P. Bruce et al. Eds.)" (http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/climate-changes-1995/
spm-economic-social-dimensions.pdf). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y.,
U.S.A.. Retrieved 2009-09-03.
• Nordhaus, W.D. (ed) (1998). Economics and Policy Issues in Climate Change. RFF Press, Washington, D.C.,
U.S.A.. pp. 336. ISBN 0-915707-95-0.
• Touffut, Jean-Philippe (ed.) (2009). Changing Climate, Changing Economy (http://www.centrecournot.org/
index.php/2009/11/17/changing-climate-changing-economy). Contributors: Michel Armatte, Jean-Pierre
Dupuy, Olivier Godard, Inge Kaul, Thomas Schelling, Robert M. Solow, Nicholas Stern, Thomas Sterner and
Martin L. Weitzman. Cheltenham, UK, and Northampton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar. ISBN 978-1-84844-836-0.
• Editor-in-Chief: Mendelsohn, Robert. Climate Change Economics (CCE) (http://www.worldscinet.com/cce/
cce.shtml). Hackensack, New Jersey, USA: World Scientific. ISSN 2010-0078(P)/2010-0086(E).

External links
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Groups II and III (http://www.ipcc.ch)
• Climate change (http://www.un.org/esa/dsd/dsd_aofw_cc/cc_index.shtml) on the United Nations Economic
and Social Development (UNESD) Division for Sustainable Development website.
• Climate change (http://beta.worldbank.org/climatechange/) at the World Bank.
• IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/) and the International Energy Agency websites (http://www.iea.org/) –
these sites contain publications on climate change.
• Climate change (http://www.oecd.org/env/cc) on the OECD website.
• The multilateral trading system and climate change: introduction (http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/
envir_e/climate_intro_e.htm), the World Trade Organization.
• Task Force on Low-Carbon Economic Prosperity (http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/ghg/index.htm),
the World Economic Forum.

Videos
• Cournot Centre Conference on "The Economic Cost of Climate Change" (http://www.centrecournot.org/index.
php/category/2008_the-economic-cost-of-climate-change). Speakers: Masahiko Aoki (Stanford University),
Michel Armatte (Centre A. Koyré), Jean-Pierre Dupuy (Stanford University), Olivier Godard (C.N.R.S.),
Jean-Charles Hourcade (C.I.R.E.D.), Inge Kaul (Hertie School), Philippe Quirion (C.N.R.S.), Thomas Schelling
(University of Maryland), Robert Solow (MIT), Nicholas Stern (London School of Economics), Thomas Sterner
(University of Gothenburg), and Martin Weitzman (Harvard University). Recorded in 2008.
• "Climate Change and Disasters - Risk and Policy" (http://info.worldbank.org/etools/BSPAN/
PresentationView.asp?PID=2360&EID=1053). A discussion based on the work of William Nordhaus, Sterling
Professor of Economics at Yale University. This discussion was held at the World Bank in 2008.
Economics of global warming 312

• "Can We Afford the Future? The Economics of a Warming World" (http://www.bu.edu/phpbin/buniverse/


videos/view/?id=349). A lecture given by Frank Ackerman at Boston University, April 28, 2009.
• "Negotiating a New International Climate Treaty" (http://vimeo.com/7288409). A talk given by Scott Barrett,
Lenfest-Earth Institute Professor of Natural Resource Economics, School of International and Public Affairs,
Columbia University. October 8, 2009.

Effects of climate change on humans


The effects of climate change on humans have been understood to be responsible today, or predicted to be
responsible in the future, for significant economic losses, as well as loss of life and wellbeing or health. In unstable
or fragile regions or communities, the additional burden of climatic changes triggered by global warming may have
further negative impacts in social, political or security terms.
Climate change, the long-term trend towards warmer average temperatures, has brought about severe and possibly
permanent alterations to our planets’ geological, biological and ecological systems. The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) now contends that “there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed
over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities”.[1] These changes have led to the emergence of large-scale
environmental hazards to human health, such as ozone depletion, loss of biodiversity, stresses to food-producing
systems and the global spread of infectious diseases.[1] The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that
160,000 deaths, since 1950, are directly attributable to climate change. Many believe this to be a conservative
estimate.[2] Research at Stanford University indicates global warming will lead to decreased mortality rates.[3]
To date a neglected aspect of the climate change debate, much less research has been conducted on the impacts of
climate change on health, food supply, economic growth, migration, security, societal change, and public goods,
such as drinking water, than on the geo-physical changes related to global warming. Human impacts can be both
negative and positive. Climatic changes in Siberia, for instance, are expected to improve food production and local
economic activity, at least in the short to medium term. Numerous studies suggest, however, that the current and
future impacts of climate change on human society are and will continue to be overwhelmingly negative.[4] [5]
The majority of the adverse effects of climate change are experienced by poor and low-income communities around
the world, who have much higher levels of vulnerability to environmental determinants of health, wealth and other
factors, and much lower levels of capacity available for coping with environmental change. A report on the global
human impact of climate change published by the Global Humanitarian Forum in 2009, including drawing on work
done by the World Health Organization earlier in that decade, indicated that developing countries suffer 99% of the
casualties attributable to climate change. This also raises questions of climate justice, since the 50 least developed
countries of the world account for not more than 1% of worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases that cause global
warming.[6] While developing countries are at greatest risk, the impacts of climate change are not limited to
lower-income communities. Increasing tropical storm activity, extreme weather, temperatures and drought or water
stress are being experienced in every region of the world. It has been estimated that 4 billion people today live in
areas at risk of adverse climate impacts.[7]
Since so little research has been conducted into the human impacts of climate change and because of the difficulty in
differentiating the influence of climate change from other contributing factors, statistics relating to the human impact
of climate change carry significant margins of uncertainty. Particularly on a global level, much of the statistical data
on the human impact of climate change should only be considered as being indicative of the order of magnitude of
impact.
Though there has been inadequate research (and policy-related discussion) on the human impacta of climate change,
a number of organizations are raising the profile of this issue by organizing various high-level meetings and
publishing reports on the topic. Now list the human facter that change the climate, Such organizations include
Effects of climate change on humans 313

Oxfam, the United Nations Development Programme, the United Nations Environment Programme, the World
Health Organization, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, the United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees, the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the World Health
Organization, the Global Humanitarian Forum, Care International, Greenpeace, Maplecroft, the World Bank, and the
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.

Health
Climate change poses a wide range of risks to population health - risks that will increase in future decades, often to
critical levels, if global climate change continues on its current trajectory.[2] The three main categories of health risks
include: (i) direct-acting effects (e.g. due to heat-waves, amplified air pollution, and physical weather disasters), (ii)
impacts mediated via climate-related changes in ecological systems and relationships (e.g. crop yields, mosquito
ecology, marine productivity), and (iii) the more diffuse (indirect) consequences relating to impoverishment,
displacement, resource conflicts (e.g. water), and post-disaster mental health problems.
Climate change thus threatens to slow, halt or reverse international progress towards reducing child under-nutrition,
deaths from diarrheal diseases and the spread of other infectious diseases. Climate change acts predominantly by
exacerbating the existing, often enormous, health problems, especially in the poorer parts of the world. Current
variations in weather conditions already have many adverse impacts on the health of poor people in developing
nations,[8] and these too are likely to be 'multiplied' by the added stresses of climate change.
A changing climate thus affects the prerequisites of population health: clean air and water, sufficient food, natural
constraints on infectious disease agents, and the adequacy and security of shelter. A warmer and more variable
climate leads to higher levels of some air pollutants and more frequent extreme weather events. It increases the rates
and ranges of transmission of infectious diseases through unclean water and contaminated food, and by affecting
vector organisms (such as mosquitoes) and intermediate or reservoir host species that harbour the infectious agent
(such as cattle, bats and rodents). Changes in temperature, rainfall and seasonality compromise agricultural
production in many regions, including some of the least developed countries, thus jeopardising child health and
growth and the overall health and functional capacity of adults. As warming proceeds, the severity (and perhaps
frequency) of weather-related disasters will increase - and appears to have done so in a number of regions of the
world over the past several decades. Therefore, in summary, global warming, together with resultant changes in food
and water supplies, can indirectly cause increases in a range of adverse health outcomes, including malnutrition,
diarrhea, injuries, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and water-borne and insect-transmitted diseases.
Health equity and climate change have a major impact on human health and quality of life, and are interlinked in a
number of ways. The report of the WHO Commission on Social Determinants of Health points out that
disadvantaged communities are likely to shoulder a disproportionate share of the burden of climate change because
of their increased exposure and vulnerability to health threats. Over 90 percent of malaria and diarrhea deaths are
borne by children aged 5 years or younger, mostly in developing countries.[9] Other severely affected population
groups include women, the elderly and people living in small island developing states and other coastal regions,
mega-cities or mountainous areas.[6]
Climate change can lead to dramatic increases in prevalence of a variety of infectious diseases. Beginning in the
mid-70s, there has been an “emergence, resurgence and redistribution of infectious diseases”.[10] Reasons for this are
likely multicausal, dependent on a variety of social, environmental and climatic factors, however, many argue that
the “volatility of infectious disease may be one of the earliest biological expressions of climate instability”.[10]
Though many infectious diseases are affected by changes in climate, vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, dengue
fever and leishmaniasis, present the strongest causal relationship. Malaria in particular, which kills approximately
300,000 children annually, poses the most imminent threat.[11]
Effects of climate change on humans 314

Malaria
Malaria is especially susceptible to changes in the environment as both the pathogen (Plasmodium) and its vector
(mosquitoes) lack the mechanisms necessary to regulate internal temperature and fluid levels. This implies that there
is a limited range of climatic conditions within which the pathogen and vector can survive, reproduce and infect
hosts.[12] Vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, have distinctive characteristics that determine pathogenicity. These
include: the survival and reproduction rate of the vector, the level of vector activity (i.e. the biting or feeding rate),
and the development and reproduction rate of the pathogen within the vector or host.[12] These depend on climatic
conditions such as temperature, precipitation and humidity.

Temperature
The ideal temperature range for malaria-carrying mosquitoes is 15 - 30°C. Temperature exerts varied effects on
survival and reproduction rate of mosquitoes. If initial temperature is high, then an increase in average temperature,
associated with global warming, can decrease the survival and reproduction rate of mosquitoes.

Precipitation and humidity


Mosquitoes are also highly sensitive to changes in precipitation and humidity. Increased precipitation can increase
mosquito population indirectly by expanding larval habitat and food supply. Mosquitoes are, however, highly
dependent on humidity, surviving only within a limited humidity range of 55-80%.

Extreme weather events


Infectious disease often accompanies extreme weather events, such as floods, earthquakes and drought. These local
epidemics occur due to loss of infrastructure, such as hospitals and sanitation services, but also because of changes in
local ecology and environment. For example, malaria outbreaks have been strongly associated with the El Nino
cycles of a number of countries (India and Venezuela, for example). El Nino can lead to drastic, though temporary,
changes in the environment such as temperature fluctuations and flash floods.[10] In addition, with global warming,
there has been a marked trend towards more variable and anomalous weather. This has led to an increase in the
number and severity of extreme weather events. This trend towards more variability and fluctuation is perhaps more
important, in terms of its impact on human health, than that of a gradual and long-term trend towards higher average
temperature.[10]

Non-climatic determinants
As one would expect, climate is not the only determining factor in the spread of malaria. A variety of
sociodemographic and environmental influences determine the characteristics of the disease as well.
Sociodemographic factors include, but are not limited to: patterns of human migration and travel, effectiveness of
public health and medical infrastructure in controlling and treating the disease, the extent of anti-malarial drug
resistance and the underlying health status of the population at hand.[12] Environmental factors include: changes in
land-use (e.g. deforestation), expansion of agricultural and water development projects (which tend to increase
mosquito breeding habitat), and the overall trend towards urbanization (i.e. increased concentration of human hosts).
Patz & Olson argue that these changes in landscape can alter local weather more than long term climate change.[11]
For example, the deforestation and cultivation of natural swamps in the African highlands has created conditions
favourable for the survival of mosquito larvae, and has, in part, led to the increasing incidence of malaria.[11] The
effects of these non-climatic factors complicate things and make a direct causal relationship between climate change
and malaria difficult to confirm. It is highly unlikely that climate exerts an isolated effect.
Effects of climate change on humans 315

Future modelling
Modelling involves a prediction of the scope, geographic distribution and characteristics of a given factor (malaria in
this case) over a period of time. These models are crucial in preparing an adequate public health response to future
infectious disease outbreaks. Modelling malaria is particularly complex given the two common pathogen variants
(Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax) and many regionally dominant mosquito species.[2] These models
must therefore incorporate a variety of factors including: human-induced changes in climate (e.g. temperature,
precipitation, and humidity), environmental factors (e.g. drought and deforestation), disease factors (e.g. parasite
development rate, vector population, and drug resistance) and other factors (e.g. changes in immune status of hosts
and spread of disease into new areas).[13] Various models suggest, conservatively, that people living in developing
countries’ risk of malaria will increase 5-15% by 2100 due to climate change.[13] In Africa alone, according to the
MARA Project (Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa), there is a projected increase of 16-28% in person-month
exposures to malaria by 2100.[14]

Public health response


Currently, there is no evidence to suggest that the rapid onset of climate change is subsiding. Even if we
miraculously managed to stop all greenhouse gas emissions, we would still be faced with the potentially irreversible
changes we have already wrought. Thus, it is essential that we adapt to these changing conditions. Our response will
be both reactive and anticipatory and will need to take place at many levels (legislative, engineering and
personal-behaviour).[1] In response to malaria we will need to, for example, improve the quality and accessibility of
health services, identify and target response towards vulnerable populations, improve our modelling and surveillance
capacity, and implement broad-based public education campaigns.[13] However, malaria, like other tropical
infectious diseases, primarily affects the economically and socially vulnerable. Our primary objective, in preventing
future epidemics, should be the reduction of this vulnerability – the eradication of poverty.

Poverty
Because the poor tend to live in geographical and climatic regions that are naturally most vulnerable to climate
change, their capacity to adapt is easily overwhelmed by the impact of the hanging conditions. They have the least
assets to rely on in the event of a shock — whether it be a weather-related disaster, a bad harvest or a family member
falling ill. These factors build on each other and create a perpetuating cycle of poverty that is difficult to break.
Safety net structures like insurance are also largely unavailable to the world’s poor. Many are subsistence farmers or
fishermen, or have jobs in the tourism industry—vocations highly dependent on natural resources such as the ocean,
forests and land for their livelihoods. Climate change compounds existing poverty by destroying livelihoods. Climate
change is expected to reduce the earning potential of the next generation because it decreases family income and
increases the number of hungry children. Economists estimate that every child whose physical and mental
development is stunted by hunger and malnutrition stands to lose 5 to 10 percent in lifetime earnings.[15] As incomes
drop, poor families might be forced to send their children to work to bring in extra income. Consequently, climate
change affects educational opportunities and thereby income potential of the next generation.

Water
As the climate warms, it changes the nature of global rainfall, evaporation, snow, stream flow and other factors that
affect water supply and quality. Freshwater resources are highly sensitive to variations in weather and climate.
Climate change is projected to affect water availability. Growing evidence suggests that it speeds up the water cycle,
which can bring longer droughts and more intense periods of rain. This makes wet regions even wetter and arid areas
drier. In areas where the amount of water in rivers and streams depends on snow melting, warmer temperatures
increase the fraction of precipitation falling as rain rather than as snow, causing the annual spring peak in water
runoff to occur earlier in the year. This can lead to an increased likelihood of winter flooding and reduced late
summer river flows. Rising sea levels cause saltwater to enter into fresh underground water and freshwater streams.
Effects of climate change on humans 316

This reduces the amount of freshwater available for drinking and farming. Warmer water temperatures also affect
water quality and accelerate water pollution.[16]

Displacement/migration
Climate change causes displacement of people in several ways, the most obvious—and dramatic—being through the
increased number and severity of weather-related disasters which destroy homes and habitats forcing people to seek
shelter or livelihoods elsewhere. In the long term, such environmental effects of climate change as desertification
and rising sea levels gradually doom livelihoods and force communities to abandon traditional homelands for more
accommodating environments. This is currently happening in areas of Africa’s Sahel, the semi-arid belt that spans
the continent just below its northern deserts. Deteriorating environments triggered by climate change can also lead to
increased conflict over resources which in turn can displace people.[17] However, the links between the gradual
environmental degradation of climate change and displacement are complex: When individuals decide over time to
leave, it is impossible to single out the influence of climate change in these decisions from other factors, such as
poverty, population growth or employment options. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, it will
become increasingly difficult to categorize any displaced people by separate causes, which may include any
combination of conflict, economic, environmental, climate or other factors. Neither the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change nor its Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement on climate change, includes any provisions
concerning specific assistance or protection for those who will be directly affected by climate change.[18]

Security
Conflicts are typically extremely complex with multiple inter-dependent causalities, often referred to as ‘complex
emergencies.’ Climate change has the potential to exacerbate existing tensions or create new ones — serving as a
threat multiplier. It can be a catalyst for violent conflict and a threat to international security.[19] [20]
The United Nations Security Council held its first-ever debate on the impact of climate change in 2007. The links
between climate change and security have been the subject of numerous high-profile reports since 2007 by leading
security figures in the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union. The G77 group of developing
nations also considers climate change to be a major security threat which is expected to hit developing nations
particularly hard. The links between the human impact of climate change and the threat of violence and armed
conflict are particularly important because multiple destabilizing conditions are affected simultaneously.

Social impacts
The consequences of climate change and poverty are not distributed uniformly within communities. Individual and
social factors such as gender, age, education, ethnicity, geography and language lead to differential vulnerability and
capacity to adapt to the effects of climate change. Climate change effects such as hunger, poverty and diseases like
diarrhea and malaria, disproportionately impact children, i.e. about 90 percent of malaria and diarrhea deaths are
among young children.[9] Furthermore, in times of hardship young girls are particularly likely to be taken out of
school to care for sick relatives or earn extra income. The elderly have weakened immune systems making them
more susceptible to diseases and changing weather conditions, especially heat waves, along with being highly
vulnerable to weather-related disasters due to reduced mobility.
Effects of climate change on humans 317

Further reading
• Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, 4th Assessment Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [21]
• Report on the Economics of Climate Change (2006), Stern Review [22]
• Human Impact Report: The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis (2009), Global Humanitarian Forum [23]
• Key Points on Climate Justice: Working Paper of the Global Humanitarian Forum [24]
• What Happened to the Seasons?, Oxfam Research Report [25]
• Human Development Report 2007/2008, United Nations Development Programme [26]
• Maplecroft Climate Change Risk Report 2009/2010 [27]

References
[1] A.J. McMichael (2003). A. McMichael. ed. "Global Climate Change and Health: An Old Story Writ Large". World Health Organization
(Geneva).
[2] A.J. McMichael; R. Woodruff, S. Hales (2006). "Climate Change and Human Health: Present and Future Risks". Lancet 367: 859-69.
[3] www.stanford.edu/~moore/health.html
[4] http:/ / ghfgeneva. org/ Portals/ 0/ pdfs/ human_impact_report. pdf
[5] http:/ / www. oxfam. org. uk/ resources/ policy/ climate_change/ downloads/ research_what_happened_to_seasons. pdf
[6] http:/ / hdr. undp. org/ en/ media/ HDR_20072008_EN_Complete. pdf
[7] http:/ / www. reliefweb. int/ rw/ lib. nsf/ db900sid/ PANA-7JXCDW/ $file/ ocha_aug2008. pdf?openelement
[8] http:/ / www. wmo. int/ pages/ publications/ bulletin_en/ documents/ 57_4_short_en. pdf
[9] http:/ / who. int/ healthinfo/ global_burden_disease/ 2004_report_update/ en/ index. html
[10] P. Epstein (2002). "Climate Change and Infectious Disease: Stormy Weather Ahead?". Epidemiology 13 (4): 373-375.
[11] J. Patz; S. Olson (2006). "Malaria Risk and Temperature: Influences from Global Climate Change and Local Land Use Practices". PNAS 103
(15): 5635-5636.
[12] J. Patz; A.K. Githeko, J.P. McCarty, S. Hussein, U. Confalonieri, N. de Wet (2003). A. McMichael. ed. "Climate Change and Infectious
Diseases". Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses (Geneva: World Health Organization).
[13] S. Bhattacharya; C. Sharma, R. Dhiman, A. Mitra (2006). "Climate Change and Malaria in India". Current Science 90 (3): 369-375.
[14] J. Patz; D. Campbell-Lendrum, T. Holloway, J. Foley (2005). "Impact of Regional Climate Change on Human Health". Nature 438 (17):
310-317.
[15] http:/ / www. wfp. org/ hunger/ who-are
[16] http:/ / www. isse. ucar. edu/ water_climate/ impacts. html
[17] http:/ / www. worldwatch. org/ node/ 5888
[18] http:/ / www. brookings. edu/ speeches/ 2007/ 1214_climate_change_ferris. aspx
[19] http:/ / www. international-alert. org/ pdf/ A_Climate_Of_Conflict. pdf
[20] http:/ / www. wbgu. de/ wbgu_jg2007_engl. html
[21] http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report. htm
[22] http:/ / webarchive. nationalarchives. gov. uk/ + / http:/ / www. hm-treasury. gov. uk/ independent_reviews/
stern_review_economics_climate_change/ stern_review_report. cfm
[23] http:/ / ghfgeneva. org/ Portals/ 0/ pdfs/ human_impact_report. pdf
[24] http:/ / www. ghf-geneva. org/ Portals/ 0/ pdfs/ KeyPointsonClimateJusticeTextWeb. pdf
[25] http:/ / www. oxfam. org. uk/ resources/ policy/ climate_change/ downloads/ research_what_happened_to_seasons. pdf
[26] http:/ / hdr. undp. org/ en/ media/ HDR_20072008_EN_Complete. pdf
[27] http:/ / www. maplecroft. com/ Climate_change_info. php
Effects of climate change on humans 318

External links
• IPCC (http://www.ipcc.ch/)
• Global Humanitarian Forum (http://www.ghf-ge.org/)
• Tck Tck Tck Time for Climate Justice campaign (http://www.timeforclimatejustice.org/)
• Youth Forum (http://www.youthforum2009.org/)
• Oxfam (http://www.oxfam.org/)
• United Nations Development Programme and climate (http://www.undp.org/climatechange/)
• United Nations Environment Programme and climate change (http://www.unep.org/climatechange/)
• Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights human rights and climate change (http://www2.ohchr.org/
english/issues/climatechange/index.htm)
• Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees climate change (http://www.unhcr.org/pages/49e4a5096.html)
• Care International Climate Change Information Centre (http://www.careclimatechange.org/)
• Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre (http://www.climatecentre.org/index.php?page=1)
• World Bank and Climate Change (http://beta.worldbank.org/climatechange/)
• World Meteorological Organization and climate (http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/index_en.php)
• World Health Organization climate change and human health (http://www.who.int/globalchange/climate/en/)
• International Alert climate change and violent conflict (http://www.international-alert.org/climate_change/
index.php)
• International Strategy for Disaster Reduction disaster risk reduction and climate change (http://www.unisdr.
org/eng/risk-reduction/climate-change/climate-change.html)
• Greenpeace International (http://www.greenpeace.org/international/)
• UN Climate Change Conference official website (http://en.cop15.dk/)

Effects of climate change on marine mammals


Climate change is a cause of increasing concern to scientists and it will have dramatic effects on marine mammals.
The increase of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere are thought to be the main cause of
climate change or global warming. Exactly how climate change will affect the ocean, which is home to marine
mammals, is hard to predict since there are so many factors that affect ocean ecosystems. How all these, such as
weather events and salinity, will interact is highly unpredictable. Using global climate models or GCMs scientists
can get a general idea of how climate change will impact the ocean environment in the future.
Marine mammals have evolved to live in the ocean, but the effects of climate change may be altering their habitat
more rapidly than they can adapt to the changes.
As levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase, they trap heat which causes an overall warming of the
planet. During the last century, global average land and sea surface temperature has increased dramatically. Many
marine mammal species require specific temperature ranges in which they must live. The warming of the ocean will
cause changes in species range. Those species that cannot relocate due to some barrier will be forced to adapt to the
increasingly warming sea waters or else risk going extinct. Many species ranges are being pushed further and further
north as water temperatures increase and will soon have nowhere else to go.
Not surprisingly, glacier ice melt has increased while sea ice extent and thickness has decreased as temperatures keep
rising. Rises in sea level affect coastal habitat and the species that rely on it. This habitat is often used as haul out
sites for several pinniped species. In order to combat rising sea levels in areas inhabited by humans the construction
of sea walls has been proposed, however, these walls may interfere with the migration routes of several marine
mammal species. These routes can be very important for reaching feeding and breeding grounds.
Effects of climate change on marine mammals 319

Changes in temperature ranges will also change the location of areas with high primary productivity. These areas are
important to marine mammals because primary producers are the food source of marine mammal prey or are the
marine mammal prey themselves. Marine mammal distribution and abundance will be determined by the distribution
and abundance of its prey. Migration of marine mammals may also be affected by the changes in primary
productivity.
Increased glacier ice melt also impacts ocean circulation due to the increase of freshwater in the ocean. Salinity
concentrations in the ocean are changing. Thermohaline circulation may be altered by increasing amounts of
freshwater in the ocean. Thermohaline circulation is responsible for bringing up cold, nutrient rich water from the
depths of the ocean, a process known as upwelling. This may effect regional temperatures and primary productivity.
Susceptibility to disease is also thought to increase while reproductive success may decrease with increasing ocean
temperatures.
The worlds oceans absorb a large amount of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and causes an increase in carbon
dioxide concentrations and a decrease its overall pH, making it more acidic.

References
Poloczanska, E. S., Babcock, R. C., Butler, A., Hobday, A. J., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Kunz, T. J., Matear, R., Milton,
D. A., Okey, T. A., & Richardson, A. J. 2007. Climate change and Australian marine life. Oceanography and Marine
Biology: An Annual Review, 45, 407-478.
Hardwood, J.. 2001. Marine mammals and their environment in the twenty-first century. Journal of Mammology,
82(3), 630-640.
Learmonth, J.A., Macleod, C.D., Santos, M.B., Pierce, J.G., Crick, H.Q.P. & Robinson, R.A. .2006. Potential effects
of climate change on marine mammals. Oceanography and Marine Biology: An Annual Review, 2006, 44, 431-464.
MCCIP. 2006. Marine Climate Change Impacts Annual Report Card 2006. (Eds. Buckley, P.J., Dye, S.R., & Baxter,
J.M..), Summary Report, MCCIP, Lowestoft, 8pp.
Simmonds, M.P. & Isaac, S.J. .2007. The impacts of climate change on marine mammals: Early Signs of Significant
Problems. Oryx, 41(1), 19-26.
Tynan, C.T. & DeMaster, D.P.. 1997. Observations and predictions of Arctic climate change: potential effects on
marine mammals. Arctic, 50(4), 308-422.

External links
• Marine Mammal Commission [1]
• United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre [2]
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [3]

References
[1] http:/ / www. mmc. gov/
[2] http:/ / www. unep-wcmc. org/ climate/ default. aspx
[3] http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
Fisheries and climate change 320

Fisheries and climate change


Rising ocean temperatures[2] and ocean
acidification[3] are radically altering aquatic
ecosystems. Climate change is modifying
fish distribution[4] and the productivity of
marine and freshwater species. This has
impacts on the sustainability of fisheries and
aquaculture, on the livelihoods of the
communities that depend on fisheries, and
on the ability of the oceans to capture and
store carbon (biological pump). The effect
of sea level rise means that coastal fishing
communities are in the front line of climate Fishing with a lift net in Bangladesh. Coastal fishing communities in Bangladesh
change, while changing rainfall patterns and [1]
are vulnerable to flooding from sea-level rises.
water use impact on inland (freshwater)
fisheries and aquaculture.

Role of oceans
Oceans and coastal ecosystems play an important role in the global
carbon cycle and have removed about 25% of the carbon dioxide
emitted by human activities between 2000 and 2007 and about half the
anthropogenic CO2 released since the start of the industrial revolution.
Rising ocean temperatures and ocean acidification means that the
capacity of the ocean carbon sink will gradually get weaker,[6] giving
rise to global concerns expressed in the Monaco[7] and Manado[8]
Declarations. Healthy ocean ecosystems are essential for the mitigation
of climate change.[9]
Island with fringing reef in the Maldives. Coral
[5]
reefs are dying around the world.

Impact on fish production


The rising ocean acidity makes it more difficult for marine organisms such as shrimps, oysters, or corals to form
their shells – a process known as calcification. Many important animals, such as zooplankton, that forms the base of
the marine food chain have calcium shells. Thus the entire marine food web is being altered – there are ‘cracks in the
food chain’. As a result, the distribution,[10] productivity, and species composition of global fish production is
changing,[11] generating complex and inter-related impacts[12] on oceans, estuaries, coral reefs, mangroves and sea
grass beds that provide habitats and nursery areas for fish. Changing rainfall patterns and water scarcity is impacting
on river and lake fisheries and aquaculture production.[13] [14]
Fisheries and climate change 321

Impact on fishing communities


Coastal and fishing populations[15] and countries dependent on
fisheries[16] are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Low-lying
countries such as the Maldives[17] and Tuvalu are particularly
vulnerable and entire communities may become the first climate
refugees. Fishing communities in Bangladesh are subject not only to
sea-level rise, but also flooding and increased typhoons. Fishing
communities along the Mekong river produce over 1 million tons of
basa fish annually and livelihoods and fish production will suffer from
saltwater intrusion resulting from rising sea level and dams.[18]

Fisheries and aquaculture contribute significantly to food security and


livelihoods. Fish provides essential nutrition for 3 billion people and at
least 50% of animal protein and minerals to 400 million people from Fisherman landing his catch, Seychelles
[19]
the poorest countries. Over 500 million people in developing
countries depend, directly or indirectly, on fisheries and aquaculture for their livelihoods - aquaculture is the world’s
fastest growing food production system, growing at 7% annually and fish products are among the most widely traded
foods, with more than 37% (by volume) of world production traded internationally.[20]

Adaptation and mitigation


The impacts of climate change can be addressed through adaptation and mitigation. The costs and benefits of
adaptation are essentially local or national, while the costs of mitigation are essentially national whereas the benefits
are global. Some activities generate both mitigation and adaptation benefits, for example, the restoration of
mangrove forests can protect shorelines from erosion and provide breeding grounds for fish while also sequestering
carbon.

Adaptation
Several international agencies, including the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organization[21] have
programs to help countries and communities adapt to global warming, for example by developing policies to
improve the resilience[22] of natural resources, through assessments of risk and vulnerability, by increasing
awareness[23] of climate change impacts and strengthening key institutions, such as for weather forecasting and early
warning systems.[24] The World Development Report 2010 - Development and Climate Change, Chapter 3[25] shows
that reducing overcapacity in fishing fleets and rebuilding fish stocks can both improve resilience to climate change
and increase economic returns from marine capture fisheries by US$50 billion per year, while also reducing GHG
emissions by fishing fleets. Consequently removal of subsidies on fuel for fishing can have a double benefit by
reducing emissions and promoting overfishing.
Investment in sustainable aquaculture[26] can buffer water use in agriculture while producing food and diversifying
economic activities. Algal biofuels also show potential as algae can produce 15-300 times more oil per acre than
conventional crops, such as rapeseed, soybeans, or jatropha and marine algae do not require scarce freshwater.
Programs such as the GEF-funded Coral Reef Targeted Research provide advice on building resilience and
conserving coral reef ecosystems,[27] while six Pacific countries recently gave a formal undertaking to protect the
reefs in a biodiversity hotspot – the Coral Triangle.[28]
Fisheries and climate change 322

Mitigation
The oceans have removed 50%[29] of the anthropogenic CO2, so the
oceans have absorbed much of the impact of climate change. The
famous White Cliffs of Dover illustrate how the ocean captures and
buries carbon. These limestone cliffs are formed from the skeletons of
marine plankton called coccoliths. Similarly, petroleum formation is
attributed largely to marine and aquatic plankton further illustrating the The White Cliffs of Dover

key role of the oceans in carbon sequestration.

Exactly how the oceans capture and bury CO2 is the subject of intense research[30] by scientists worldwide, such as
the Carboocean Project.[31] The current level of GHG emissions means that ocean acidity will continue to increase
and aquatic ecosystems will continue to degrade and change. There are feedback mechanisms involved here. For
example, warmer waters can absorb less CO2, so as ocean temperatures rise some dissolved CO2 will be released
back into the atmosphere. Warming also reduces nutrient levels in the mesopelagic zone (about 200 to 1000 m deep).
This in turn limits the growth of diatoms in favour of smaller phytoplankton that are poorer biological pumps of
carbon. This inhibits the ability of the ocean ecosystems to sequester carbon as the oceans warm.[32] What is clear, is
that healthy ocean and coastal ecosystems are necessary to continue the vital role of the ocean carbon sinks, as
indicated, for example, by the Blue Carbon[33] assessment prepared by UNEP and the coastal carbon sinks report[34]
of IUCN and growing evidence of the role of fish biomass[35] in the transport of carbon from surface waters to the
deep ocean.

While the various carbon finance instruments include restoration of forests (REDD) and producing clean energy
(emissions trading), few address the need to finance healthy ocean and aquatic ecosystems although these are
essential for continued uptake of CO2 and GHGs. The scientific basis for ocean fertilization – to produce more
phytoplankton to increase the uptake of CO2 – has been challenged, and proposals for burial of CO2 in the deep
ocean have come under criticism from environmentalists. The debate on these issues has underlined the need to
increase scientific understanding of how the ocean sequesters carbon.

Notes
[1] Sarwar G.M. (2005). Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Coastal Zone of Bangladesh (http:/ / www. lumes. lu. se/ database/ alumni/ 04. 05/
theses/ golam_sarwar. pdf). Lund University. . [Masters thesis Lay summary].
[2] Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter5. pdf) In:
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (15MB).
[3] Doney, S. C. (March 2006). "The Dangers of Ocean Acidification" (http:/ / www. precaution. org/ lib/ 06/
ocean_acidification_from_c02_060301. pdf). Scientific American. .
[4] Cheung, W.W.L., et al. (October 2009). Redistribution of Fish Catch by Climate Change. A Summary of a New Scientific Analysis (http:/ /
www. seaaroundus. org/ ClimateChange/ images/ Pew OSS Final climate change and fisheries. pdf). Pew Ocean Science Series. .
[5] Coral reefs around the world (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ interactive/ 2009/ sep/ 02/ coral-world-interactive)
Guardian.co.uk, 2 September 2009.
[6] UNEP, FAO, IOC (2009-11-25). "Blue Carbon. The role of healthy oceans in binding carbon" (http:/ / dev. grida. no/ RRAbluecarbon/ pdfs/
Blue_Carbon_Low_Res_2009-11-25. pdf). .
[7] Monaco Declaration (http:/ / ioc3. unesco. org/ oanet/ Symposium2008/ MonacoDeclaration. pdf) and Ocean Acidification (http:/ / ioc3.
unesco. org/ oanet/ OAdocs/ SPM-lorezv2. pdf) A Summary for Policymakers from the Second Symposium on the Ocean in a High-CO2
World.] Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, Marine Environment
Laboratories (MEL) of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research. 2008.
[8] Manado Ocean Declaration (http:/ / www. cep. unep. org/ news-and-events/ manado-ocean-declaration) World Ocean Conference
Ministerial/High Level Meeting. Manado, Indonesia, 11–14 May 2009.
[9] PACFA (http:/ / www. climatefish. org/ index_en. htm) (2009). "Fisheries and Aquaculture in a Changing Climate" (http:/ / www. fao. org/
climatechange/ 17789-1-0. pdf). .
[10] Changing distribution of fish in USA (http:/ / www. youtube. com/ watch?v=2pdifo6Yznc) (Youtube)
Fisheries and climate change 323

[11] FAO (2008) Report of the FAO Expert Workshop on Climate Change Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture (ftp:/ / ftp. fao. org/
docrep/ fao/ 010/ i0203e/ i0203e00. pdf) Rome, Italy, 7–9 April 2008. FAO Fisheries Report No. 870.
[12] Brander KM (December 2007). "Global fish production and climate change" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long&
pmid=18077405). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 104 (50): 19709–14. doi:10.1073/pnas.0702059104. PMC 2148362. PMID 18077405. .
[13] Ficke, A.D., Myrick, C.A. & Hansen, L.J. (2007). "Potential impacts of global climate change on freshwater fisheries" (http:/ / assets. panda.
org/ downloads/ fwfishreport902nov05. pdf). Fish Biology and Fisheries 17 (4): 581–613. doi:10.1007/s11160-007-9059-5. .
[14] Handisyde, N., et al. (2006). "The Effects of Climate change on World Aquaculture: A global perspective" (http:/ / www. aqua. stir. ac. uk/
GISAP/ pdfs/ Climate_full. pdf). Department for International Development UK. .
[15] Allison, E. H. et al. (2005) "Effects of climate change on the sustainability of capture and enhancement fisheries important to the poor:
analysis of the vulnerability and adaptability of fisherfolk living in poverty" (http:/ / www. dfid. gov. uk/ Documents/ publications/
summary-climatechangefisheries. pdf) London, Fisheries Management Science Programme MRAG/DFID, Project no. R4778J. Final
Technical Report, 164 pp.
[16] Allison, E.H., et al. (2009). "Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries" (http:/ / www. imcsnet. org/
imcs/ docs/ vulnerability_of_fisheries. pdf). Fish and Fisheries 10 (2): 173–96. doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00310.x. .
[17] Maldives President addresses the UN Climate Change Conference (http:/ / www. youtube. com/ watch?v=M4VRb6myfzU&
feature=related) (Youtube)
[18] Halls, A.S. (May 2009). "Fisheries Research and Development in the Mekong Region" (http:/ / www. mrcmekong. org/ Catch-Culture/
vol15_1May09/ Fisheries-Climate-Change. htm). Catch and Culture: Fisheries Research and Development in the Mekong Region 15 (1). .
[19] WorldFish Center, 2008. The Millennium Development Goals: Fishing for a Future: Reducing poverty and hunger by improving fisheries
and aquaculture (http:/ / www. worldfishcenter. org/ v2/ files/ MDG brochure 72dpi. pdf)
[20] FAO (2009) The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture (ftp:/ / ftp. fao. org/ docrep/ fao/ 011/ i0250e/ i0250e01. pdf) Rome.
[21] FAO (2007) Building adaptive capacity to climate change. Policies to sustain livelihoods and fisheries (ftp:/ / ftp. fao. org/ docrep/ fao/ 010/
a1115e/ a1115e00. pdf)
[22] Allison, E.H., et al. (2007). "Enhancing the resilience of inland fisheries and aquaculture systems to climate change". Journal of Semi-Arid
Tropical Agricultural Research 4 (1).
[23] Dulvy, N.; Allison, E. (28 May 2009). "A place at the table?" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ climate/ 2009/ 0906/ full/ climate. 2009. 52.
html#B3). Nature Reports Climate Change: 68. doi:10.1038/climate.2009.52. .
[24] The World Bank – Climate Change Adaptation (http:/ / beta. worldbank. org/ overview/ climate-change-adaptation) (website)
[25] World Bank (2009) World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. Chapter 3 (http:/ / siteresources. worldbank. org/
INTWDR2010/ Resources/ 5287678-1226014527953/ Chapter-3. pdf)
[26] World Bank (2006) Aquaculture: Changing the Face of the Waters: Meeting the Promise and Challenge of Sustainable Aquaculture (http:/ /
siteresources. worldbank. org/ INTARD/ Resources/ Aquaculture_ESW_vGDP. pdf)
[27] Coral Reef Targeted Research (2008) Climate change: It’s now or never to save coral reefs (http:/ / www. gefcoral. org/ Portals/ 53/
downloads/ advisory_briefs_BWG_mexico/ Advisory Paper Issue 1. Climate change. july08. pdf) CFTR Advisory Panel 2 Issue 1.
[28] Coral Triangle Agreement (http:/ / www. youtube. com/ watch?v=U5V--yB6SEY) (YouTube)
[29] Feely, R., et al. (2008). "Carbon dioxide and our Ocean legacy" (http:/ / www. pmel. noaa. gov/ pubs/ PDF/ feel2899/ feel2899. pdf).
NOAA/Pew brief. .
[30] Gruber N., et al. (2009). "Oceanic sources, sinks, and transport of atmospheric CO2" (http:/ / ocean. mit. edu/ ~stephd/ gruber_gbc_09. pdf).
Global Biogeochem. Cycles 23: GB1005. Bibcode 2009GBioC..23.1005G. doi:10.1029/2008GB003349. .
[31] CARBOOCEAN IP (http:/ / www. carboocean. org/ ) (website) and C02 in the oceans (http:/ / www. carboocean. org/ upload/ flowplayer/
carboocean/ index. html) (movie clip, 55 minutes)
[32] Buesseler, Ken O.; et al. (2007-04-27). "Revisiting Carbon Flux Through the Ocean's Twilight Zone" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/
content/ abstract/ 316/ 5824/ 567) (abstract). Science 316 (5824): 567–70. doi:10.1126/science.1137959. PMID 17463282. . Retrieved
2007-11-16.
[33] Nellemann, C., Corcoran, E., Duarte, C. M., Valdés, L., De Young, C.,Fonseca, L., Grimsditch, G. (2009). "Blue Carbon. A Rapid Response
Assessment" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ publications/ rr/ blue-carbon/ ). GRID-Arendal. United Nations Environment Programme. .
[34] Lafoley, D.d’A. & Grimsditch, G. (2009). "The management of natural coastal carbon sinks" (http:/ / cmsdata. iucn. org/ downloads/
carbon_managment_report_final_printed_version_1. pdf). Gland, Switzerland: IUCN. .
[35] Wilson, R.W., et al. (2009). "Contribution of Fish to the Marine Inorganic Carbon Cycle" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/
abstract/ 323/ 5912/ 359). Science 323 (5912): 359–62. doi:10.1126/science.1157972. PMID 19150840. .
Fisheries and climate change 324

References
• FAO (2009) Climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture. Overview of current scientific knowledge
(http://www.fao.org/icatalog/search/dett.asp?aries_id=110710) Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper
530, Rome.
• Klyashtorin LB (2001) Climate change and long-term fluctuations of commercial catches: the possibility of
forecasting (ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/005/y2787e/y2787e00.pdf) Technical paper 410, FAO fisheries,
Rome. ISBN 9789251046951.

Retreat of glaciers since 1850


The retreat of glaciers since 1850 affects
the availability of fresh water for irrigation
and domestic use, mountain recreation,
animals and plants that depend on
glacier-melt, and in the longer term, the
level of the oceans. Studied by glaciologists,
the temporal coincidence of glacier retreat
with the measured increase of atmospheric
greenhouse gases is often cited as an
evidentiary underpinning of global
warming. Mid-latitude mountain ranges
such as the Himalayas, Alps, Rocky
A view down the Whitechuck Glacier in Glacier Peak Wilderness in 1973
Mountains, Cascade Range, and the
southern Andes, as well as isolated tropical
summits such as Mount Kilimanjaro in
Africa, are showing some of the largest
proportionate glacial loss.[1]

The Little Ice Age was a period from about


1550 to 1850 when the world experienced
relatively cooler temperatures compared to
the present. Subsequently, until about 1940,
glaciers around the world retreated as the
climate warmed substantially. Glacial retreat
slowed and even reversed temporarily, in
In a similar view as seen in 2006, where this branch of glacier retreated
many cases, between 1950 and 1980 as a 1.9 kilometres (1.2 mi)
slight global cooling occurred. Since 1980, a
significant global warming has led to glacier retreat becoming increasingly rapid and ubiquitous, so much so that
some glaciers have disappeared altogether, and the existence of a great number of the remaining glaciers of the world
is threatened. In locations such as the Andes of South America and Himalayas in Asia, the demise of glaciers in
these regions will have potential impact on water supplies. The retreat of mountain glaciers, notably in western North
America, Asia, the Alps, Indonesia and Africa, and tropical and subtropical regions of South America, has been used
to provide qualitative evidence for the rise in global temperatures since the late 19th century.[2] The recent
substantial retreat and an acceleration of the rate of retreat since 1995 of a number of key outlet glaciers of the
Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, may foreshadow a rise in sea level, having a potentially dramatic effect on
coastal regions worldwide.
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 325

Glacier mass balance


Crucial to the survival of a glacier is its mass
balance, the difference between accumulation
and ablation (melting and sublimation).[3]
Climate change may cause variations in both
temperature and snowfall, causing changes in
mass balance. A glacier with a sustained
negative balance is out of equilibrium and will
retreat. A glacier with sustained positive balance
is also out of equilibrium, and will advance to
reestablish equilibrium. Currently, there are a
few advancing glaciers, although their modest
growth rates suggest that they are not far from
equilibrium.[4]
This map of mountain glacier mass balance changes since 1970 shows
Glacier retreat results in the loss of the thinning in yellow and red, and thickening in blue.
low-elevation region of the glacier. Since higher
elevations are cooler, the disappearance of the
lowest portion of the glacier reduces overall
ablation, thereby increasing mass balance and
potentially reestablishing equilibrium. If the
mass balance of a significant portion of the
accumulation zone of the glacier is negative, it is
in disequilibrium with the climate and will melt
away without a colder climate and or an increase
in frozen precipitation.
The key symptom of a glacier in disequilibrium
is thinning along the entire length of the glacier.
This indicates thinning in the accumulation zone.
The result is marginal recession of the
accumulation zone margin, not just of the
Global glacial mass balance in the last fifty years, reported to the WGMS and
terminus. In effect, the glacier no longer has a
NSIDC. The increasing downward trend in the late 1980s is symptomatic of
consistent accumulation zone and without an the increased rate and number of retreating glaciers.
accumulation zone cannot survive.[5] [6] For
example, Easton Glacier (see below) will likely shrink to half its size, but at a slowing rate of reduction, and stabilize
at that size, despite the warmer temperature, over a few decades. However, the Grinnell Glacier (picture at Glacier
mass balance article) will shrink at an increasing rate until it disappears. The difference is that the upper section of
Easton Glacier remains healthy and snow covered, while even the upper section of the Grinnell Glacier is bare, is
melting and has thinned. Small glaciers with minimal altitude range are most likely to fall into disequilibrium with
the climate.

Methods for measuring glacier retreat include staking terminus location, global positioning mapping, aerial mapping,
and laser altimetry.
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 326

Mid-latitude glaciers
Mid-latitude glaciers are located either between the Tropic of Cancer and the Arctic Circle, or between the Tropic of
Capricorn and the Antarctic Circle. These two regions support glacier ice from mountain glaciers, valley glaciers and
even smaller icecaps, which are usually located in higher mountainous regions. All of these glaciers are located in
mountain ranges, notably the Himalayas; the Alps; the Pyrenees; Rocky Mountains and Pacific Coast Ranges of
North America; the Patagonian Andes in South America; and mountain ranges in New Zealand. Glaciers in these
latitudes are more widespread and tend to be greater in mass the closer they are located to the polar regions. These
glaciers are the most widely studied over the past 150 years. As is true with the glaciers located in the tropical zone,
virtually all the glaciers in the mid-latitudes are in a state of negative mass balance and are retreating.

Eastern hemisphere

Europe

The World Glacier Monitoring Service


reports on changes in the terminus, or
lower elevation end, of glaciers from
around the world every five years.[7] In
their 2000-2005 edition, they noted the
terminal point variations of glaciers
across the Alps. Over the five-year
period from 2000–2005, 115 of 115
glaciers examined in Switzerland
retreated, 115 of 115 glaciers in Austria
reatreated, in Italy during 2005 50
glaciers were retreating and 3 stationary
, and all 7 glaciers observed in France
were in retreat. French glaciers
experienced a sharp retreat in the years
1942–53 followed by advances up to This map from the annual Glacier Commission surveys in Italy and Switzerland shows
1980, and then further retreat beginning the percentage of advancing glaciers in the Alps. Mid-20th century saw strong retreating
in 1982. As an example, since 1870 the trends, but not as extreme as the present; current retreats represent additional reductions
of already smaller glaciers.
Argentière Glacier and Mont Blanc
Glacier have receded by 1150 m
(3770 ft) and 1400 m (4600 ft), respectively. The largest glacier in France, the Mer de Glace, which is 11 km
(6.8 mi) long and 400 m (1300 ft) thick, has lost 8.3% of its length, or 1 km (0.62 mi), in 130 years, and thinned by
27%, or 150 m (490 ft), in the midsection of the glacier since 1907. The Bossons Glacier in Chamonix, France, has
retreated 1200 m (3900 ft) from extents observed in the early 20th century. In 2010, of 95 Swiss glaciers studied, 86
retreated from where their terminal points had been in 2009, 6 showed no change and 3 advanced.[8]

Other researchers have found that glaciers across the Alps appear to be retreating at a faster rate than a few decades
ago. In 2008, the Swiss Glacier survey of 85 glaciers found 78 retreating, 2 stationary and 5 advancing. The Trift
Glacier had retreated over 500 m (1600 ft) just in the three years of 2003 to 2005, which is 10% of its total length.
The Grosser Aletsch Glacier, the largest glacier in Switzerland, has retreated 2600 m (8500 ft) since 1880. This rate
of retreat has also increased since 1980, with 30%, or 800 m (2600 ft), of the total retreat occurring in the last 20% of
the time period.[9] Similarly, of the glaciers in the Italian Alps, only about a third were in retreat in 1980, while by
1999, 89% of these glaciers were retreating. In 2005, the Italian Glacier Commission found that 123 glaciers were
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 327

retreating, 1 advancing and 6 stationary.[10] Repeat photography of glaciers in the Alps provides clear evidence that
glaciers in this region have retreated significantly in the past several decades.[11] Morteratsch Glacier, Switzerland is
one key example. The yearly measurements of the length changes started in 1878. The overall retreat from 1878 to
1998 has been 2 km (1.2 mi) with a mean annual retreat rate of approximately 17 m (56 ft) per year. This long-term
average was markedly surpassed in recent years with the glacier receding 30 m (98 ft) per year during the period
between 1999–2005.[9] One major concern which has in the past had great impact on lives and property is the death
and destruction from a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). Glaciers stockpile rock and soil that has been carved
from mountainsides at their terminal end. These debris piles often form dams that impound water behind them and
form glacial lakes as the glaciers melt and retreat from their maximum extents. These terminal moraines are
frequently unstable and have been known to burst if overfilled or displaced by earthquakes, landslides or avalanches.
If a glacier has a rapid melting cycle during warmer months, the terminal moraine may not be strong enough to hold
the rising water behind it, leading to a massive localized flood. This is an increasing risk due to the creation and
expansion of glacial lakes resulting from glacier retreat. Past floods have been deadly and have resulted in enormous
property damage. Towns and villages in steep, narrow valleys that are downstream from glacial lakes are at the
greatest risk. In 1892 a GLOF released some 200000 km3 (2.6×1014 cu yd) of water from the lake of the Glacier de
Tête Rousse, resulting in the deaths of 200 people in the French town of Saint Gervais.[12] GLOFs have been known
to occur in every region of the world where glaciers are located. Continued glacier retreat is expected to create and
expand glacial lakes, increasing the danger of future GLOFs.
Though the glaciers of the Alps have received more attention from glaciologists than in other areas of Europe,
research indicates that throughout most of Europe, glaciers are rapidly retreating. In the Kebnekaise Mountains of
northern Sweden, a study of 16 glaciers between 1990 and 2001 found that 14 glaciers were retreating, one was
advancing and one was stable.[13] During the 20th century, glaciers in Norway retreated overall with brief periods of
advance around 1910, 1925 and in the 1990s. In the 1990s, 11 of 25 Norwegian glaciers observed had advanced due
to several consecutive winters with above normal precipitation. However, following several consecutive years of
little winter precipitation since 2000, and record warmth during the summers of 2002 and 2003, Norwegian glaciers
have decreased significantly since the 1990s. By 2005 only 1 of the 25 glaciers monitored in Norway was advancing,
two were stationary and 22 were retreating. In 2010 27 glaciers reatreated, one was stationary (less than 2 meters of
change) and three advanced. [14] The Norwegian Engabreen Glacier has retreated 185 m (607 ft) since 1999, while
the Brenndalsbreen and Rembesdalsskåka glaciers have retreated 276 m (906 ft) and 250 m (820 ft), respectively,
since 2000. The Briksdalsbreen glacier retreated 96 m (315 ft) in 2004 alone—the largest annual retreat recorded for
this glacier since monitoring began in 1900. This figure was exceeded in 2006 with five glaciers retreating over
100 m (330 ft) from the fall of 2005 to the fall of 2006. Four outlets from the Jostedalsbreen ice cap, Kjenndalsbreen,
Brenndalsbreen, Briksdalsbreen and Bergsetbreen had a frontal retreat of more than 100 metres. Gråfjellsbrea, an
outlet from Folgefonna, had a retreat of almost 100 m (330 ft). Overall, from 1999 to 2005, Briksdalsbreen retreated
336 metres (1102 ft).[14]
In the Spanish Pyrenees, recent studies have shown important losses in extent and volume of the glaciers of the
Maladeta massif during the period 1981-2005. These include a reduction in area of 35.7%, from 2.41 km2
(600 acres) to .627 km2 (155 acres), a loss in total ice volume of .0137 km3 (0.0033 cu mi) and an increase in the
mean altitude of the glacial termini of 43.5 m (143 ft).[15] For the Pyrenees as a whole 50-60% of the glaciated area
has been lost since 1991. At least three glaciers Balaitus, Perdigurero and La Munia have disappeared in this period.
Monte Perdido Glacier has shrank from 90 hectares to 40 hectares.[16]
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 328

Siberia
Siberia and the Russian Far East, although typically classified as polar regions, owing to the dryness of the winter
climate have glaciers only in the high Altai Mountains, Verkhoyansk Range and Cherskiy Range. Kamchatka,
exposed to moisture from the Sea of Okhotsk, has much more extensive glaciation totaling around 2,500 square
kilometres (970 square miles).
Because the collapse of Communism has caused a large reduction in the number of monitoring stations,[17] details on
the retreat of Siberian glaciers is much poorer than in most other regions of the world. Nonetheless, available records
do indicate a general retreat of all glaciers in the Altai Mountains and (with the exception of volcanic glaciers) in
Kamchatka. Sakha's glaciers, totaling seventy square kilometers, have shrunk by around 28% since 1945,[17] whilst
in moister regions of Siberia and on the Pacific coast, the shrinkage is considerably larger,[17] reaching several
percent annually in some places.

Asia

The Himalayas and other mountain chains


of central Asia support large regions that are
glaciated. These glaciers provide critical
water supplies to arid countries such as
Mongolia, western China, Pakistan,
Afghanistan and India. As is true with other
glaciers worldwide, the glaciers of Asia are
experiencing a rapid decline in mass. The
loss of these glaciers would have a
tremendous impact on the ecosystem of the
region.
This NASA image shows the formation of numerous glacial lakes at the termini of
In the Wakhan Corridor of Afghanistan 28 receding glaciers in Bhutan-Himalaya.

of 30 glaciers examined retreated


significantly during the 1976-2003 period, the average retreat was 11 meters per year.[18] One of these glaciers, the
Zemestan Glacier, has retreated 460 m during this period, not quite 10% of its 5.2 km length.[19] In examining 612
glaciers in China between 1950 and 1970, 53% of the glaciers studied were retreating. After 1990, 95% of these
glaciers were measured to be retreating, indicating that retreat of these glaciers was becoming more widespread.[20]
Glaciers in the Mount Everest region of the Himalayas are all in a state of retreat. The Rongbuk Glacier, draining the
north side of Mount Everest into Tibet, has been retreating 20 m (66 ft) per year. In the Khumbu region of Nepal
along the front of the main Himalaya of 15 glaciers examined from 1976-2007 all retreated significantly, average
retreat was 28 m per year.[21] The most famous of these Khumbu Glacier retreated at a rate of 18 m per year from
1976-2007.[21] In India the Gangotri Glacier, retreated 34 m (112 ft) per year between 1970 and 1996, and has
averaged a loss of 30 m (98 ft) per year since 2000. However, the glacier is still over 30 km (19 mi) long. In 2005 the
Tehri Dam was finished on the Bhagirathi River, it is a 2400 mW facility that began producing hydropower in 2006.
The headwaters of the Bhagirathi River is the Gangotri and Khatling Glacier, Garhwal Himalaya. Gangotri Glacier
has retreated 1 km in the last 30 years, and with an area of 286 km2 provides up to 190 m3/second (Singh et al.,
2006). For the Indian Himalaya retreat ranged from -19 meters per year for 17 glaciers all retreating.[22] In Sikkim 26
glaciers examined were retreating at an average rate of 13.02 m per year from 1976 to 2005.[23] For the 51 glaciers in
the main Himalayan Range of India, Nepal and Sikkim 51 are retreating, at an average rate of 23 m per year. In the
Karokoram Range of the Himalaya there is a mix of advancing and retreating glaciers with 18 advancing and 22
retreating during the 1980-2003 period. Many of the advancing Karakoram glaciers are surging.[24]
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 329

With the retreat of glaciers in the Himalayas, a number of glacial lakes have been created. A growing concern is the
potential for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods—researchers estimate 20 glacial lakes in Nepal and 24 in Bhutan pose
hazards to human populations should their terminal moraine dams fail. One glacial lake identified as potentially
hazardous is Bhutan's Raphstreng Tsho, which measured 1.6 km (0.99 mi) long, .96 m (0.00096 km) wide and was
80 m (260 ft) deep in 1986. By 1995 the lake had swollen to a length of 1.94 km (1.21 mi), 1.13 km (0.70 mi) in
width and a depth of 107 m (351 ft). In 1994 a GLOF from Luggye Tsho, a glacial lake adjacent to Raphstreng Tsho,
killed 23 people downstream.[25]
Glaciers in the Ak-shirak Range in Kyrgyzstan experienced a slight loss between 1943 and 1977 and an accelerated
loss of 20% of their remaining mass between 1977 and 2001.[26] In the Tien Shan mountains, which Kyrgyzstan
shares with China and Kazakhstan, studies in the northern areas of that mountain range show that the glaciers that
help supply water to this arid region have been losing nearly 2 km3 (0.48 cu mi) of ice per year between 1955 and
2000. The University of Oxford study also reported that an average of 1.28% of the volume of these glaciers had
been lost per year between 1974 and 1990.[27]
To the south of the Tien Shan, the Pamirs mountain range located primarily in Tajikistan has many thousands of
glaciers, all of which are in a general state of retreat. During the 20th century, the glaciers of Tajikistan lost 20 km3
(4.8 cu mi) of ice. The 70 km (43 mi) long Fedchenko Glacier, which is the largest in Tajikistan and the largest
non-polar glacier on Earth, lost 1.4% of its length, or 1 km (0.62 mi), 2 km3 (0.48 cu mi) of its mass, and the
glaciated area was reduced by 11 km2 (4.2 sq mi) during the 20th century. Similarly, the neighboring Skogatch
Glacier lost 8% of its total mass between 1969 and 1986. The country of Tajikistan and neighboring countries of the
Pamir Range are highly dependent upon glacial runoff to ensure river flow during droughts and the dry seasons
experienced every year. The continued demise of glacier ice will result in a short-term increase, followed by a
long-term decrease in glacial melt water flowing into rivers and streams.[28]
The Tibetan Plateau contains the world's third-largest store of ice. Qin Dahe, the former head of the China
Meteorological Administration, said that the recent fast pace of melting and warmer temperatures will be good for
agriculture and tourism in the short term; but issued a strong warning:
"Temperatures are rising four times faster than elsewhere in China, and the Tibetan glaciers are retreating at a
higher speed than in any other part of the world.... In the short term, this will cause lakes to expand and bring
floods and mudflows. . . . In the long run, the glaciers are vital lifelines for Asian rivers, including the Indus
and the Ganges. Once they vanish, water supplies in those regions will be in peril."[29]

Oceania

In New Zealand the mountain glaciers have been in


general retreat since 1890, with an acceleration of this
retreat since 1920. Most of the glaciers have thinned
measurably and have reduced in size, and the snow
accumulation zones have risen in elevation as the 20th
century progressed. During the period 1971–75, Ivory
Glacier receded 30 m (98 ft) from the glacial terminus,
and about 26% of the surface area of the glacier was
lost over the same period. Since 1980 numerous small
glacial lakes were created behind the new terminal
moraines of several of these glaciers. Glaciers such as
These glaciers in New Zealand have continued to retreat rapidly in
Classen, Godley and Douglas now all have new glacial recent years. Notice the larger terminal lakes, the retreat of the white
lakes below their terminal locations due to the glacial ice (ice free of moraine cover), and the higher moraine walls due to
ice thinning. Photo.
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 330

retreat over the past 20 years. Satellite imagery indicates that these lakes are continuing to expand. There has been
significant and ongoing ice volume losses on the largest New Zealand glaciers, including the Tasman, Ivory,
Classen, Mueller, Maud, Hooker, Grey, Godley, Ramsay, Murchison, Therma, Volta and Douglas Glaciers. The
retreat of these glaciers has been marked by expanding proglacial lakes and terminus region thinning. The loss in
volume from 1975-2005 is 11% of the total.[30]
Several glaciers, notably the much-visited Fox and Franz Josef Glaciers on New Zealand's West Coast, have
periodically advanced, especially during the 1990s, but the scale of these advances is small when compared to
20th-century retreat. Both glaciers are currently more than 2.5 km (1.6 mi) shorter than a century ago. These large,
rapidly flowing glaciers situated on steep slopes have been very reactive to small mass-balance changes. A few years
of conditions favorable to glacier advance, such as more westerly winds and a resulting increase in snowfall, are
rapidly echoed in a corresponding advance, followed by equally rapid retreat when those favorable conditions
end.[31] The glaciers that have been advancing in a few locations in New Zealand have been doing so due to a
temporary weather change associated with El Niño, which has brought more precipitation and cloudier, cooler
summers since 2002.[32]

Western hemisphere
North American glaciers are primarily located along the spine of the
Rocky Mountains in the United States and Canada, and the Pacific
Coast Ranges extending from northern California to Alaska. While
Greenland is geologically associated with North America, it is also a
part of the Arctic region. Apart from the few tidewater glaciers such as
Taku Glacier, that are in the advance stage of their tidewater glacier
cycle prevalent along the coast of Alaska, virtually all the glaciers of
North America are in a state of retreat. The observed retreat rate has
increased rapidly since approximately 1980, and overall each decade The Lewis Glacier, North Cascades National Park
since has seen greater rates of retreat than the preceding one. There are after melting away in 1990
also small remnant glaciers scattered throughout the Sierra Nevada
mountains of California and Nevada.

Cascades
The Cascade Range of western North America extends from southern British Columbia in Canada to northern
California. Excepting Alaska, about half of the glacial area in the U.S. is contained in the more than 700 glaciers of
the North Cascades, a portion of the range between the Canadian border and I-90 in central Washington. These
glaciers store as much water as that contained in all the lakes and reservoirs in the rest of the state, and provide much
of the stream and river flow in the dry summer months, approximating some 870000 m3 ( cu yd).
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 331

As recently as 1975, many North Cascade glaciers were


advancing due to cooler weather and increased
precipitation that occurred from 1944 to 1976.
However, by 1987 all the North Cascade glaciers were
retreating, and the pace of the glacier retreat has
increased each decade since the mid-1970s. Between
1984 and 2005, the North Cascade glaciers lost an
average of more than 12.5 m in thickness and between
20% and 40% of their volume.[5]

Glaciologists researching the North Cascades glaciers


have found that all 47 monitored glaciers are receding
and that four glaciers—Spider Glacier, Lewis Glacier
The Boulder Glacier retreated 450 m (1480 ft) from 1987 to 2005.
(pictured), Milk Lake Glacier, and David
Glacier—have disappeared completely since 1985. The
White Chuck Glacier (near Glacier Peak) is a
particularly dramatic example. The glacier area shrank
from 3.1 km2 (1.2 sq mi) in 1958 to .9 km2 (0.35 sq mi)
by 2002. Between 1850 and 1950, the Boulder Glacier
on the southeast flank of Mount Baker retreated 8,700
feet (2,650 m). William Long of the United States
Forest Service observed the glacier beginning to
advance due to cooler/wetter weather in 1953. This was
followed by a unknown operator: u',' feet (unknown
operator: u'strong'unknown operator: u','m)
advance by 1979.[33] The glacier again retreated 450 m
(1480 ft) from 1987 to 2005, leaving barren terrain
The Easton Glacier retreated 255 m (837 ft) from 1990 to 2005.
behind. This retreat has occurred during a period of
reduced winter snowfall and higher summer
temperatures. In this region of the Cascades, winter snowpack has declined 25% since 1946, and summer
temperatures have risen 0.7 °C (1.2 °F) during the same period. The reduced snowpack has occurred despite a small
increase in winter precipitation; thus, it reflects warmer winter temperatures leading to rainfall and melting on
glaciers even during the winter. As of 2005, 67% of the North Cascade glaciers observed are in disequilibrium and
will not survive the continuation of the present climate. These glaciers will eventually disappear unless temperatures
fall and frozen precipitation increases. The remaining glaciers are expected to stabilize, unless the climate continues
to warm, but will be much reduced in size.[33] [34]

U.S. Rocky Mountains


On the sheltered slopes of the highest peaks of Glacier National Park in Montana, its eponymous glaciers are
diminishing rapidly. The area of each glacier has been mapped by the National Park Service and the U.S. Geological
Survey for decades. Comparing photographs taken in the mid-19th century with contemporary images provides
ample evidence that the glaciers in the park have retreated notably since 1850. Repeat photography over the decades
since clearly show that glaciers throughout the park such as Grinnell Glacier are all retreating. The larger glaciers are
now approximately a third of their former size when first studied in 1850, and numerous smaller glaciers have
disappeared completely. Only 27% of the 99 km2 (38 sq mi) area of Glacier National Park covered by glaciers in
1850 remained covered by 1993.[35] Researchers believe that by the year 2030, the vast majority of glacial ice in
Glacier National Park will be gone unless current climate patterns reverse their course.[36] Grinnell Glacier is just
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 332

one of many glaciers in Glacier National Park that have been well documented by photographs for many decades.
The photographs below clearly demonstrate the retreat of this glacier since 1938.

1938 T.J. Hileman GNP 1981 Carl Key (USGS) 1998 Dan Fagre (USGS) 2009 Lindsey Bengtson (USGS)

The semiarid climate of Wyoming still manages to support about a dozen small glaciers within Grand Teton National
Park, which all show evidence of retreat over the past 50 years. Schoolroom Glacier, located slightly southwest of
Grand Teton, one of the more easily reached glaciers in the park, is expected to disappear by 2025. Research
between 1950 and 1999 demonstrated that the glaciers in Bridger-Teton National Forest and Shoshone National
Forest in the Wind River Range shrank by over a third of their size during that period. Photographs indicate that the
glaciers today are only half the size as when first photographed in the late 1890s. Research also indicates that the
glacial retreat was proportionately greater in the 1990s than in any other decade over the last 100 years. Gannett
Glacier on the northeast slope of Gannett Peak is the largest single glacier in the Rocky Mountains south of Canada.
It has reportedly lost over 50% of its volume since 1920, with almost half of that loss occurring since 1980.
Glaciologists believe the remaining glaciers in Wyoming will disappear by the middle of the 21st century if the
current climate patterns continue.[37]

Canadian Rockies and British Columbia Coast Range

In the Canadian Rockies, the glaciers are generally


larger and more widespread than they are to the south
in the United States Rocky Mountains. One of the more
accessible glaciers in the Canadian Rockies is the
Athabasca Glacier, which is an outlet glacier of the
325 km2 (125 sq mi) Columbia Icefield. The Athabasca
Glacier has retreated 1500 m (4900 ft) since the late
19th century. The rate of retreat for this glacier has
increased since 1980, following a period of slow retreat
from 1950 to 1980. The Peyto Glacier in Alberta covers
an area of about 12 km2 (4.6 sq mi), and retreated
Fast-melting toe of the Athabasca Glacier, 2005
rapidly during the first half of the 20th century,
stabilized by 1966, and resumed shrinking in 1976.[38]
Illecillewaet Glacier in British Columbia's Glacier National Park (Canada) has retreated 2 km (1.2 mi) since first
photographed in 1887.
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 333

In Garibaldi Provincial park in SW British Columbia


over 505 km2, or 26%, of the park, was covered by
glacier ice at the beginning of the 18th century. Ice
cover decreased to 297 km2 by 1987–1988 and to 245
km2 by 2005, 50% of the 1850 area. The 50 km2 loss
in the last 20 years coincides with negative mass
balance in the region. During this period all nine
glaciers examined have retreated significantly.[39]

Alaska

There are thousands of glaciers in Alaska, though only


a relative few of them have been named. The Columbia
The Athabasca Glacier in the Columbia Icefield of the Canadian
Glacier near Valdez in Prince William Sound has
Rockies, has retreated 1,500 m in the last century. Also recent
retreated 15 km (9.3 mi) in the last 25 years. Icebergs animation.
calved off this glacier were a partial cause of the Exxon
Valdez oil spill, as the oil tanker had changed course to
avoid the icebergs. The Valdez Glacier is in the same
area, and though it does not calve, it has also retreated
significantly. "A 2005 aerial survey of Alaskan coastal
glaciers identified more than a dozen glaciers, many
former tidewater and calving glaciers, including Grand
Plateau, Alsek, Bear, and Excelsior Glaciers that are
rapidly retreating. Of 2,000 glaciers observed, 99% are
retreating."[40] Icy Bay in Alaska is fed by three large
glaciers—Guyot, Yahtse, and Tyndall Glaciers—all of
which have experienced a loss in length and thickness
and, consequently, a loss in area. Tyndall Glacier
became separated from the retreating Guyot Glacier in
Valdez Glacier has thinned 90 m (300 ft) over the last century and
the 1960s and has retreated 24 km (15 mi) since, the barren ground near the glacial margins have been exposed due to
[41]
averaging more than 500 m (1600 ft) per year. the glacier thinning and retreating over the last two decades of the
[12]
20th century.
The Juneau Icefield Research Program has monitored
the outlet glaciers of the Juneau Icefield since 1946. On the west side of the ice field, the terminus of the Mendenhall
Glacier, which flows into suburban Juneau, Alaska, has retreated 580 m (1900 ft). Of the nineteen glaciers of the
Juneau Icefield, eighteen are retreating, and one, the Taku Glacier, is advancing. Eleven of the glaciers have retreated
more than 1 km (0.62 mi) since 1948 — Antler Glacier, 5.4 km (3.4 mi); Gilkey Glacier, 3.5 km (2.2 mi); Norris
Glacier, 1.1 km (0.68 mi) and Lemon Creek Glacier, 1.5 km (0.93 mi).[42] Taku Glacier has been advancing since at
least 1890, when naturalist John Muir observed a large iceberg calving front. By 1948 the adjacent fjord had filled
in, and the glacier no longer calved and was able to continue its advance. By 2005 the glacier was only 1.5 km
(0.93 mi) from reaching Taku Point and blocking Taku Inlet. The advance of Taku Glacier averaged 17 m (56 ft) per
year between 1988 and 2005. The mass balance was very positive for the 1946–88 period fueling the advance;
however, since 1988 the mass balance has been slightly negative, which should in the future slow the advance of this
mighty glacier.[43]

Long-term mass balance records from Lemon Creek Glacier in Alaska show slightly declining mass balance with
time.[44] The mean annual balance for this glacier was −0.23 m (0.75 ft) each year during the period of 1957 to 1976.
Mean annual balance has been increasingly negatively averaging −1.04 m (3.4 ft) per year from 1990 to 2005.
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 334

Repeat glacier altimetry, or altitude measuring, for 67 Alaska glaciers find rates of thinning have increased by more
than a factor of two when comparing the periods from 1950 to 1995 (0.7 m (2.3 ft) per year) and 1995 to 2001 (1.8 m
(5.9 ft) per year).[45] This is a systemic trend with loss in mass equating to loss in thickness, which leads to
increasing retreat—the glaciers are not only retreating, but they are also becoming much thinner. In Denali National
Park, all glaciers monitored are retreating, with an average retreat of 20 m (66 ft) per year. The terminus of the
Toklat Glacier has been retreating 26 m (85 ft) per year and the Muldrow Glacier has thinned 20 m (66 ft) since
1979.[46] Well documented in Alaska are surging glaciers that have been known to rapidly advance, even as much as
100 m (330 ft) per day. Variegated, Black Rapids, Muldrow, Susitna and Yanert are examples of surging glaciers in
Alaska that have made rapid advances in the past. These glaciers are all retreating overall, punctuated by short
periods of advance.

Andes and Tierra del Fuego

A large region of population surrounding the central and southern


Andes of Argentina and Chile reside in arid areas that are dependent on
water supplies from melting glaciers. The water from the glaciers also
supplies rivers that have in some cases been dammed for hydroelectric
power. Some researchers believe that by 2030, many of the large ice
caps on the highest Andes will be gone if current climate trends
continue. In Patagonia on the southern tip of the continent, the large ice
caps have retreated a 1 km (0.62 mi) since the early 1990s and 10 km
Retreat of San Rafael Glacier from 1990 to 2000.
(6.2 mi) since the late 19th century. It has also been observed that
San Quintín Glacier is shown in the background
Patagonian glaciers are receding at a faster rate than in any other world
region.[47] The Northern Patagonian Ice Field lost 93 km2 (36 sq mi) of
glacier area during the years between 1945 and 1975, and 174 km2 (67 sq mi) from 1975 to 1996, which indicates
that the rate of retreat is increasing. This represents a loss of 8% of the ice field, with all glaciers experiencing
significant retreat. The Southern Patagonian Ice Field has exhibited a general trend of retreat on 42 glaciers, while
four glaciers were in equilibrium and two advanced during the years between 1944 and 1986. The largest retreat was
on O'Higgins Glacier, which during the period 1896–1995 retreated 14.6 km (9.1 mi). The Perito Moreno Glacier is
30 km (19 mi) long and is a major outflow glacier of the Patagonian ice sheet, as well as the most visited glacier in
Patagonia. Perito Moreno Glacier is presently in equilibrium, but has undergone frequent oscillations in the period
1947–96, with a net gain of 4.1 km (2.5 mi). This glacier has advanced since 1947, and has been essentially stable
since 1992. Perito Moreno Glacier is one of three glaciers in Patagonia known to have advanced, compared to
several hundred others in retreat.[48] The two major glaciers of the Southern Patagonia Icefield to the north of
Moreno, Upsala and Videma Glacier have retreated 4.6 km (2.9 mi) in 21 years and 1 km (0.62 mi) in 13 years
respectively.[49] In the Aconcagua River Basin, glacier retreat has resulted in a 20% loss in glacier area, declining
from 151 km2 (58 sq mi) to 121 km2 (47 sq mi).[50] The Marinelli Glacier in Tierra del Fuego has been in retreat
since at least 1960 through 2008.

Tropical glaciers
Tropical glaciers are located between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn, in the region that lies 23°
26′ 22″ north or south of the equator. Tropical glaciers are the most uncommon of all glaciers for a variety of
reasons. Firstly, the tropics are the warmest part of the planet. Secondly, the seasonal change is minimal with
temperatures warm year round, resulting in a lack of a colder winter season in which snow and ice can accumulate.
Thirdly, few taller mountains exist in these regions upon which enough cold air exists for the establishment of
glaciers. All of the glaciers located in the tropics are on isolated high mountain peaks. Overall, tropical glaciers are
smaller than those found elsewhere and are the most likely glaciers to show rapid response to changing climate
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 335

patterns. A small temperature increase of only a few degrees can have almost immediate and adverse impact on
tropical glaciers.[51]

Africa
With almost the entire continent of Africa located in
the tropical and subtropical climate zones, glaciers are
restricted to two isolated peaks and the Ruwenzori
Range. Kilimanjaro, at 5895 m (19341 ft), is the
highest peak on the continent. Since 1912 the glacier
cover on the summit of Kilimanjaro has apparently
retreated 75%, and the volume of glacial ice is now
80% less than it was a century ago due to both retreat
and thinning.[52] In the 14-year period from 1984 to
1998, one section of the glacier atop the mountain
receded 300 m (980 ft).[53] A 2002 study determined
that if current conditions continue, the glaciers atop
Furtwängler Glacier atop Kilimanjaro in the foreground and
Kilimanjaro will disappear sometime between 2015 and
snowfields and the Northern Icefields beyond.
2020.[54] A March 2005 report indicated that there is
almost no remaining glacial ice on the mountain, and it
is the first time in 11,000 years that barren ground has been exposed on portions of the summit.[55] Researchers
reported Kilimanjaro's glacier retreat was due to a combination of increased sublimation and decreased snow fall.[3]

The Furtwängler Glacier is located near the summit of Kilimanjaro. Between 1976 and 2000, the area of Furtwängler
Glacier was cut almost in half, from 113000 m2 ( sq ft) to 60000 m2 ( sq ft).[56] During fieldwork conducted early in
2006, scientists discovered a large hole near the center of the glacier. This hole, extending through the 6 m (20 ft)
remaining thickness of the glacier to the underlying rock, is expected to grow and split the glacier in two by 2007.[52]
To the north of Kilimanjaro lies Mount Kenya, which at 5199 m (17057 ft) is the second tallest mountain on the
African continent. Mount Kenya has a number of small glaciers that have lost at least 45% of their mass since the
middle of the 20th century. According to research compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), there were
eighteen glaciers atop Mount Kenya in 1900, and by 1986 only eleven remained. The total area covered by glaciers
was 1.6 km2 (0.62 sq mi) in 1900, however by the year 2000 only about 25%, or 0.4 km2 (0.15 sq mi) remained.[57]
To the west of Mounts Kilimanjaro and Kenya, the Ruwenzori Range rises to 5109 m (16762 ft). Photographic
evidence of this mountain range indicates a marked reduction in glacially covered areas over the past century. In the
35-year period between 1955 and 1990, glaciers on the Rwenzori Mountains receded about 40%. It is expected that
due to their proximity to the heavy moisture of the Congo region, the glaciers in the Ruwenzori Range may recede at
a slower rate than those on Kilimanjaro or in Kenya.[58]

South America
A study by glaciologists of two small glaciers in South America reveals another retreat. More than 80% of all glacial
ice in the northern Andes is concentrated on the highest peaks in small glaciers of approximately 1 km2 (0.39 sq mi)
in size. A 1992 to 1998 observation of the Chacaltaya Glacier in Bolivia and Antizana Glacier in Ecuador indicated
that between 0.6 m (2.0 ft) and 1.9 m (6.2 ft) of ice was lost per year on each glacier. Figures for Chacaltaya Glacier
show a loss of 67% of its volume and 40% of its thickness over the same period. Chacaltaya Glacier has lost 90% of
its mass since 1940 and is expected to disappear altogether sometime between 2010 and 2015. Research also
indicates that since the mid-1980s, the rate of retreat for both of these glaciers has been increasing.[59] In Colombia,
the glaciers atop Nevado del Ruiz have lost more than half their area in the last 40 years.[60] Further south in Peru,
the Andes are at a higher altitude overall, and there are approximately 722 glaciers covering an area of 723 km2
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 336

(279 sq mi). Research in this region of the Andes is less extensive but indicates an overall glacial retreat of 7%
between 1977 and 1983.[61] The Quelccaya Ice Cap is the largest tropical icecap in the world, and all of the outlet
glaciers from the icecap are retreating. In the case of Qori Kalis Glacier, which is Quelccayas' main outlet glacier,
the rate of retreat had reached 155 m (509 ft) per year during the three year period of 1995 to 1998. The melting ice
has formed a large lake at the front of the glacier since 1983, and bare ground has been exposed for the first time in
thousands of years.[62]

Oceania
On the large island of New Guinea, there is
photographic evidence of massive glacial retreat since
the region was first extensively explored by airplane in
the early 1930s. Due to the location of the island within
the tropical zone, there is little to no seasonal variation
in temperature. The tropical location has a predictably
steady level of rain and snowfall, as well as cloud cover
year round, and there has been no noticeable change in
the amount of moisture which has fallen during the
20th century. The 7 km2 (2.7 sq mi) ice cap on Puncak
Jaya is the largest on the island, and has retreated from
one larger mass into several smaller glacial bodies
Puncak Jaya icecap 1936 USGS
since 1936. Of these smaller glaciers, research between
1973 and 1976 showed glacier retreat for the Meren
Glacier of 200 m (660 ft) while the Carstensz Glacier
lost 50 m (160 ft). The Northwall Firn, another large
remnant of the icecap that once was atop Puncak Jaya,
has itself split into several separate glaciers since 1936.
Research presented in 2004 of IKONOS satellite
imagery of the New Guinean glaciers provided a
dramatic update. The imagery indicated that in the two
years from 2000 to 2002, the East Northwall Firn had
lost 4.5%, the West Northwall Firn 19.4% and the
Carstensz 6.8% of their glacial mass. Researchers also
discovered that, sometime between 1994 and 2000, the
Meren Glacier disappeared altogether.[63] An Puncak Jaya glaciers 1972. Left to right: Northwall Firn, Meren
expedition to the remaining glaciers on Puncak Jaya in Glacier, and Carstensz Glacier. USGS. Also mid 2005 image and
animation.
2010 discovered that the ice on the glaciers there is
about 32 metres (105 ft) thick and thinning at a rate of
7 metres (23 ft) annually. At that rate, the remaining glaciers are expected to last another 5 years or 2015.[64]
Separate from the glaciers of Puncak Jaya, another small icecap known to have existed on the summit of Puncak
Trikora completely disappeared sometime between 1939 and 1962.[65]
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 337

Polar regions
Despite their proximity and importance to human populations, the mountain and valley glaciers of tropical and
mid-latitude glaciers amount to only a small fraction of glacial ice on the Earth. About 99% of all freshwater ice is in
the great ice sheets of polar and subpolar Antarctica and Greenland. These continuous continental-scale ice sheets,
3 km (1.9 mi) or more in thickness, cap much of the polar and subpolar land masses. Like rivers flowing from an
enormous lake, numerous outlet glaciers transport ice from the margins of the ice sheet to the ocean.

Iceland
The northern Atlantic island nation of Iceland is home to the Vatnajökull, which is the largest ice cap in Europe. The
Breiðamerkurjökull Glacier is one of the Vatnajökull outlet glaciers, and had receded by as much as 2 km (1.2 mi)
between 1973 and 2004. In the early 20th century, Breiðamerkurjökull extended to within 250 m (820 ft) of the
ocean, but by 2004 Breiðamerkurjökull's terminus had retreated 3 km (1.9 mi) further inland. This glacier retreat
exposed a rapidly expanding lagoon that is filled with icebergs calved from its front. The lagoon is 110 m (360 ft)
deep and nearly doubled its size between 1994 and 2004. Mass-balance measurements of Iceland's glaciers show
alternating positive and negative mass balance of glaciers during the period 1987–95, but the mass balance has been
predominantly negative since. On Hofsjökull ice cap, mass balance has been negative each year from 1995-2005.
Most of the Icelandic glaciers retreated rapidly during the warm decades from 1930 to 1960, slowing down as the
climate cooled during the following decade, and started to advance after 1970. The rate of advance peaked in the
1980s, after which it slowed down as a consequence of rapid warming of the climate that has taken place since the
mid-1980s. Most glaciers in Iceland began to retreat after 1990, and by 2000 all monitored non-surge type glaciers in
Iceland were retreating. An average of 45 non-surging termini were monitored each year by the Icelandic
Glaciological Society from 2000–2005.[66]

Canada
The Canadian Arctic islands have a number of
substantial ice caps, including Penny and Barnes
ice caps on Baffin Island, Bylot Ice Cap on Bylot
Island, and Devon Ice Cap on Devon Island. All
of these ice caps have been thinning and
receding slowly. The Barnes and Penny ice caps
on Baffin Island have been thinning at over 1 m
(3.3 ft) per year in the lower elevations from
1995 to 2000. Overall, between 1995 and 2000,
ice caps in the Canadian Arctic lost 25 km2
(9.7 sq mi) of ice per year.[67] Between 1960 and
1999, the Devon Ice Cap lost 67 km3 (16 cu mi)
of ice, mainly through thinning. All major outlet
glaciers along the eastern Devon Ice Cap margin
have retreated from 1 km (0.62 mi) to 3 km
(1.9 mi) since 1960.[68] On the Hazen Plateau of
Ellesmere Island, the Simmon Ice Cap has lost
47% of its area since 1959.[69] If the current Bylot Ice Cap on Bylot Island, one of the Canadian Arctic islands, August 14,
1975 (USGS)
climatic conditions continue, the remaining
glacial ice on the Hazen Plateau will be gone
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 338

around 2050. On August 13, 2005 the Ayles Ice Shelf broke free from the north coast of Ellesmere Island, the
66 km2 (25 sq mi) ice shelf drifted into the Arctic Ocean.[70] This followed the splitting of the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf
in 2002. The Ward Hunt has lost 90% of its area in the last century.[71]

Northern Europe
Arctic islands north of Norway, Finland and Russia have all shown evidence of glacier retreat. In the Svalbard
archipelago, the island of Spitsbergen has numerous glaciers. Research indicates that Hansbreen (Hans Glacier) on
Spitsbergen retreated 1.4 km (0.87 mi) from 1936 to 1982 and another 400 m (1300 ft) during the 16-year period
from 1982 to 1998.[72] Blomstrandbreen, a glacier in the King's Bay area of Spitsbergen, has retreated approximately
2 km (1.2 mi) in the past 80 years. Since 1960 the average retreat of Blomstrandbreen has been about 35 m (115 ft) a
year, and this average was enhanced due to an accelerated rate of retreat since 1995.[73] Similarly, Midre Lovenbreen
retreated 200 m (656 ft) between 1977 and 1995.[74] In the Novaya Zemlya archipelago north of Russia, research
indicates that in 1952 there was 208 km (129 mi) of glacier ice along the coast. By 1993 this had been reduced by
8% to 198 km (123 mi) of glacier coastline.[75]

Greenland
In Greenland, glacier retreat has been observed in outlet
glaciers, resulting in an increase of the ice flow rate and
destabilization of the mass balance of the ice sheet that is
their source. The net loss in volume and hence sea level
contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) has doubled
in recent years from 90 km3 (22 cu mi) to 220 km3
(53 cu mi) per year.[76] Researchers also noted that the
acceleration was widespread affecting almost all glaciers
south of 70 N by 2005. The period since 2000 has brought
retreat to several very large glaciers that had long been
stable. Three glaciers that have been researched—Helheim
Glacier, Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier, and Jakobshavn
Isbræ—jointly drain more than 16% of the Greenland Ice
Sheet. In the case of Helheim Glacier, researchers used
satellite images to determine the movement and retreat of
the glacier. Satellite images and aerial photographs from the
1950s and 1970s show that the front of the glacier had
remained in the same place for decades. In 2001 the glacier
began retreating rapidly, and by 2005 the glacier had
retreated a total of 7.2 km (4.5 mi), accelerating from 20 m
(66 ft) per day to 35 m (115 ft) per day during that
period.[77]

Retreat of the Helheim Glacier, Greenland


Jakobshavn Isbræ in west Greenland, a major outlet glacier
of the Greenland Ice Sheet, has been the fastest moving
glacier in the world over the past half century. It had been moving continuously at speeds of over 24 m (79 ft) per
day with a stable terminus since at least 1950. In 2002 the 12 km (7.5 mi) long floating terminus of the glacier
entered a phase of rapid retreat, with the ice front breaking up and the floating terminus disintegrating and
accelerating to a retreat rate of over 30 m (98 ft) per day. On a shorter timescale, portions of the main trunk of
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 339

Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier that were flowing at 15 m (49 ft) per day from 1988 to 2001 were measured to be flowing
at 40 m (130 ft) per day in the summer of 2005. Not only has Kangerdlugssuaq retreated, it has also thinned by more
than 100 m (330 ft).[78]
The rapid thinning, acceleration and retreat of Helheim, Jakobshavns and Kangerdlugssuaq glaciers in Greenland, all
in close association with one another, suggests a common triggering mechanism, such as enhanced surface melting
due to regional climate warming or a change in forces at the glacier front. The enhanced melting leading to
lubrication of the glacier base has been observed to cause a small seasonal velocity increase and the release of
meltwater lakes has also led to only small short term accelerations.[79] The significant accelerations noted on the
three largest glaciers began at the calving in front and propagated inland and are not seasonal in nature.[80] Thus, the
primary source of outlet glacier acceleration widely observed on small and large calving glaciers in Greenland is
driven by changes in dynamic forces at the glacier front, not enhanced meltwater lubrication.[80] This was termed the
Jakobshavns Effect by Terence Hughes at the University of Maine in 1986.[81]

Antarctica
The climate of Antarctica is one of intense cold and
great aridity. Most of the world's freshwater ice is
contained in the great ice sheets that cover the
continent of Antarctica. The most dramatic example of
glacier retreat on the continent is the loss of large
sections of the Larsen Ice Shelf on the Antarctic
Peninsula. Ice shelves are not stable when surface
melting occurs, and the collapse of Larsen Ice Shelf has
been caused by warmer melt season temperatures that
have led to surface melting and the formation of
shallow ponds of water on the ice shelf. The Larsen Ice
Shelf lost 2500 km2 (970 sq mi) of its area from 1995
to 2001. In a 35-day period beginning on January 31,
2002, about 3250 km2 (1250 sq mi) of shelf area
The collapsing Larsen B Ice Shelf in Antarctica is similar in area to
disintegrated. The ice shelf is now 40% the size of its
the U.S. state of Rhode Island. previous minimum stable extent[82] The recent collapse
of Wordie Ice Shelf, Prince Gustav Ice Shelf, Mueller
Ice Shelf, Jones Ice Shelf, Larsen-A and Larsen-B Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula has raised awareness of how
dynamic ice shelf systems are. Jones Ice Shelf had an area of 35 km2 (14 sq mi) in the 1970s but by 2008 it had
disappeared.[83] Wordie Ice Shelf has gone from an area of 1500 square kilometers in 1950 to 140 km2 in 2000.[83]
Prince Gustav Ice Shelf has gone from an area of 1600 km2 to 11 km2 in 2008.[83] After their loss the reduced
buttressing of feeder glaciers has allowed the expected speed-up of inland ice masses after shelf ice break-up.[84] The
Wilkins Ice Shelf is another ice shelf that has suffered substantial retreat. The ice shelf had an area of 16000 km2
(6200 sq mi) in 1998 when 1000 km2 (390 sq mi) was lost.[85] In 2007 and 2008 significant rifting developed and led
to the loss of another 1400 km2 (540 sq mi) of area. Some of the calving occurred in the Austral winter. The calving
seemed to have resulted from preconditioning such as thinning, possibly due to basal melt, as surface melt was not as
evident, leading to a reduction in the strength of the pinning point connections. The thinner ice then experienced
spreading rifts and breakup.[19] This period culminated in the collapse of an ice bridge connecting the main ice shelf
to Charcot Island leading to the loss of an additional 700 km2 (270 sq mi) in February–June 2009.[86]

Pine Island Glacier, an Antarctic outflow glacier that flows into the Amundsen Sea, thinned 3.5 m (11 ft)± 0.9 m
(3.0 ft) per year and retreated a total of 5 km (3.1 mi) in 3.8 years. The terminus of the Pine Island Glacier is a
floating ice shelf, and the point at which it starts to float retreated 1.2 km (0.75 mi) per year from 1992 to 1996. This
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 340

glacier drains a substantial portion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and along with the neighboring Thwaites Glacier,
which has also shown evidence of thinning, has been referred to as the weak underbelly of this ice sheet.[87]
Additionally, the Dakshin Gangotri Glacier, a small outlet glacier of the Antarctic ice sheet, receded at an average
rate of 0.7 m (2.3 ft) per year from 1983 to 2002. On the Antarctic Peninsula, which is the only section of Antarctica
that extends well north of the Antarctic Circle, there are hundreds of retreating glaciers. In one study of 244 glaciers
on the peninsula, 212 have retreated an average of 600 m (2000 ft) from where they were when first measured in
1953.[88] The greatest retreat was seen in Sjogren Glacier, which is now 13 km (8.1 mi) further inland than where it
was in 1953. There are 32 glaciers that were measured to have advanced; however, these glaciers showed only a
modest advance averaging 300 m (980 ft) per glacier, which is significantly smaller than the massive retreat
observed.[89]

Impacts of glacier retreat


The continued retreat of glaciers will have a number of different quantitative impacts. In areas that are heavily
dependent on water runoff from glaciers that melt during the warmer summer months, a continuation of the current
retreat will eventually deplete the glacial ice and substantially reduce or eliminate runoff. A reduction in runoff will
affect the ability to irrigate crops and will reduce summer stream flows necessary to keep dams and reservoirs
replenished. This situation is particularly acute for irrigation in South America, where numerous artificial lakes are
filled almost exclusively by glacial melt.[90] Central Asian countries have also been historically dependent on the
seasonal glacier melt water for irrigation and drinking supplies. In Norway, the Alps, and the Pacific Northwest of
North America, glacier runoff is important for hydropower.
Some of this retreat has resulted in efforts to slow down the loss of glaciers in the Alps. To retard melting of the
glaciers used by certain Austrian ski resorts, portions of the Stubai and Pitztal Glaciers were partially covered with
plastic.[91] In Switzerland plastic sheeting is also used to reduce the melt of glacial ice used as ski slopes.[92] While
covering glaciers with plastic sheeting may prove advantageous to ski resorts on a small scale, this practice is not
expected to be economically practical on a much larger scale.
Many species of freshwater and saltwater plants and animals are dependent on glacier-fed waters to ensure the cold
water habitat to which they have adapted. Some species of freshwater fish need cold water to survive and to
reproduce, and this is especially true with salmon and cutthroat trout. Reduced glacial runoff can lead to insufficient
stream flow to allow these species to thrive. Alterations to the ocean currents, due to increased freshwater inputs
from glacier melt, and the potential alterations to thermohaline circulation of the World Ocean, may impact existing
fisheries upon which humans depend as well.
The potential for major sea level rise depends mostly on a significant melting of the polar ice caps of Greenland and
Antarctica, as this is where the vast majority of glacial ice is located. If all the ice on the polar ice caps were to melt
away, the oceans of the world would rise an estimated 70 m (230 ft). Although previously it was thought that the
polar ice caps were not contributing heavily to sea level rise (IPCC 2007), recent studies have confirmed that both
Antarctica and Greenland are contributing 0.5 millimetres (0.020 in) a year each to global sea level rise.[93] [94] [95]
The fact that the IPCC estimates did not include rapid ice sheet decay into their sea level predictions makes it
difficult to ascertain a plausible estimate for sea level rise but recent studies find that the minimum sea level rise will
be around 0.8 metres (2.6 ft).[96]
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 341

References
[1] Intergovernmental panel on climate change. "Graph of 20 glaciers in retreat worldwide" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/
fig2-18. htm). Climate Change 2001 (Working Group I: The Scientific Basis). . Retrieved February 14, 2006.
Thomas Mölg. "Worldwide glacier retreat" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php?p=129). RealClimate. . Retrieved March 18, 2005.
[2] Intergovernmental panel on climate change. "2.2.5.4 Mountain glaciers" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 064. htm). Climate
Change 2001 (Working Group I: The Scientific Basis). . Retrieved February 14, 2006.
National Snow and Ice Data Center. "Global glacier recession" (http:/ / nsidc. org/ data/ glims/ glaciermelt/ index. html). GLIMS Data at
NSIDC. . Retrieved February 14, 2006.
[3] Mote, Philip W.; Kaser, Georg (2007). "The Shrinking Glaciers of Kilimanjaro: Can Global Warming Be Blamed?" (http:/ / www.
americanscientist. org/ issues/ pub/ 2007/ 4/ the-shrinking-glaciers-of-kilimanjaro-can-global-warming-be-blamed/ 1). American Scientist 95
(4): 318–325. .
[4] Trabant, D.C., R.S. March, and D.S. Thomas. "Hubbard Glacier, Alaska: Growing and Advancing in Spite of Global Climate Change and the
1986 and 2002 Russell Lake Outburst Floods" (http:/ / pubs. usgs. gov/ fs/ fs-001-03/ fs-001. 03. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2006.
[5] Mauri S. Pelto (Nichols College). "The Disequilibrium of North Cascade, Washington Glaciers 1984–2004" (http:/ / www. nichols. edu/
departments/ glacier/ diseqilibrium. html). In "Hydrologic Processes". . Retrieved February 14, 2006.
[6] Pelto, M.S. (2010). "Forecasting temperate alpine glacier survival from accumulation zone observations" (http:/ / www. the-cryosphere. net/
4/ 67/ 2010/ tc-4-67-2010. pdf) (PDF). The Cryosphere 4 (1): 67–75. doi:10.5194/tc-4-67-2010. .
[7] World Glacier Monitoring Service. "Home page" (http:/ / www. geo. unizh. ch/ wgms/ fog. html). . Retrieved December 20, 2005.
[8] Swiss Glacier Monitoring Network. "Glacier length variations of the year 2010" (http:/ / glaciology. ethz. ch/ messnetz/ glacierlist. html). .
Retrieved March 2011.
[9] Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich. "Swiss Glacier Monitoring Network" (http:/ / glaciology. ethz. ch/ messnetz/ glacierlist. html).
Variations of Grosser Aletschgletscher. . Retrieved August 18, 2005.
[10] Italian Glaciological Committee. "Glaciers" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20050428042716/ http:/ / www. disat. unimib. it/ comiglacio/
glaciologicalcommittee. htm). Glaciers in Italy. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. disat. unimib. it/ comiglacio/
glaciologicalcommittee. htm) on April 28, 2005. . Retrieved September 8, 2005.
[11] Jürg Alean, Michael Hambrey. "Ice retreat at high and low altitudes (and associated subpages)" (http:/ / www. swisseduc. ch/ glaciers/
morteratsch/ comparison/ index-en. html). Morteratsch ice retreat. . Retrieved May 30, 2006.
[12] Mauri S. Pelto. "Recent Global Glacier Retreat Overview" (http:/ / www. nichols. edu/ departments/ glacier/ glacier_retreat. htm). .
Retrieved February 2006.
[13] Glaciology, Stockholm University. "Glaciers of Sweden" (http:/ / www. glaciologi. su. se/ data/ mass_balance/ mass_balance_data.
html#Stor_data). Mass balance data. . Retrieved September 29, 2003.
[14] Hallgeir Elverhoy. "Glacier length change observations" (http:/ / www. nve. no/ en/ Water/ Hydrology/ Glaciers/ Glacier-monitoring/
Glacier-length-change-observations/ 2010---the-glacier-retreat-continiues/ ) (web page). Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate.
. Retrieved 2011-03-27.
[15] J. Chueca et alia (2007). "Recent evolution (1981–2005) of the Maladeta glaciers, Pyrenees, Spain: extent and volume losses and their
relation with climatic and topographic factors" (http:/ / www. ingentaconnect. com/ content/ igsoc/ jog/ 2007/ 00000053/ 00000183/
art00003). Journal of Glaciology 53 (183): 547–557. doi:10.3189/002214307784409342. .
[16] Serrano, E, E. Martinez and F.Lampre (2004). "Desaparición de Glaciares Pirenaicos Españoles" (http:/ / www. iberianature. com/ material/
glaciers. htm). . Retrieved 2009-06-26.
[17] "Northern Asia" (http:/ / www. grid. unep. ch/ glaciers/ pdfs/ 6_7. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-03-20.
[18] Haritashya,; Bishop, Shroder, Andrew, Bush, Bulley (2009). "Space-based assessment of glacier fluctuations in the Wakhan Pamir,
Afghanistan" (http:/ / www. glims. org/ glacierdata/ data/ lit_ref_files/ haritashya2009. pdf) (PDF). Climate Change 94 (1–2): 5–18.
doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9555-9. .
[19] Mauri S. Pelto. "Ice Shelf Instability" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php/ archives/ 2008/ 06/ ice-shelf-instability/ langswitch_lang/
tk). . Retrieved 2009.
[20] Sandeep Chamling Rai, Trishna Gurung, et alia. "An Overview of Glaciers, Glacier Retreat and Subsequent Impacts in Nepal, India and
China" (http:/ / assets. panda. org/ downloads/ himalayaglaciersreport2005. pdf) (PDF). WWF Nepal Program. . Retrieved March 2005.
[21] Bajracharya, Mool. "Glaciers, glacial lakes and glacial lake outburst floods in the Mount Everest region, Nepal" (http:/ / www. igsoc. org/
annals/ V50/ 53/ a53a010. pdf). International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. . Retrieved January 10, 2010.
[22] Bishop, MP; Barry, RG; Bush, ABG; et al. (2004). "Global land-ice measurements from space (GLIMS): remote sensing and GIS
investigations of the Earth’s cryosphere". Geocarto Int 19 (2): 57–84.
[23] V.K. Raina. "Himalayan GlaciersA State-of-Art Review of Glacial Studies,Glacial Retreat and Climate Change" (http:/ / gbpihed. gov. in/
MoEF Dissussion Paper on Himalayan Glaciers. pdf) (PDF). Geological Survey of India. . Retrieved January 10, 2010.
[24] Hewitt, K. "The Karakoram anomaly? Glacier Expansion and the ‘Elevation Effect,’ Karakoram Himalaya". Mt Res Dev 25 (4): 332–340.
[25] United Nations Environment Programme. "Global Warming Triggers Glacial Lakes Flood Threat – April 16, 2002" (http:/ / www. unep.
org/ Documents. multilingual/ Default. asp?DocumentID=245& ArticleID=3042& l=en). UNEP News Release 2002/20. . Retrieved April 16,
2002.
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 342

[26] T. E. Khromova, M. B. Dyurgerov and R. G. Barry (2003). "Late-twentieth century changes in glacier extent in the Ak-shirak Range,
Central Asia, determined from historical data and ASTER imagery (Abstract)" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2003/ 2003GL017233.
shtml). American Geophysical Union 30 (16): 1863. .
[27] Kirby, Alex (September 4, 2003). "Kazakhstan's glaciers 'melting fast'" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 3077422. stm).
BBC News. .
[28] V. Novikov. "Tajikistan 2002, State of the Environment Report" (http:/ / enrin. grida. no/ htmls/ tadjik/ soe2001/ eng/ htmls/ climate/ state.
htm). Climate Change. . Retrieved March 3, 2003.
[29] (AFP) – Aug 17, 2009 (2009-08-17). "Global warming benefits to Tibet: Chinese official. Reported 18/Aug/2009" (http:/ / www. google.
com/ hostednews/ afp/ article/ ALeqM5g1eE4Xw3njaW1MKpJRYOch4hOdLQ). Google.com. . Retrieved 2010-03-20.
[30] Salinger, Jim and Andrew Willsman (February 2007). "Annual Glacier Volumes in New Zealand 1995-2005" (http:/ / www. stats. govt. nz/
~/ media/ statistics/ publications/ analytical-reports/ water-physical-stock-acct-95-05/ annual-glacier-volumes-in-nz-2005. aspx) (PDF). NIWA
Client Report: AKL2007-014. Statistics New Zealand. . Retrieved 2009-11-05.
[31] U.S. Geological Survey, U.S.Department of the Interior. "Glaciers of New Zealand" (http:/ / pubs. usgs. gov/ prof/ p1386h/ nzealand/
nzealand2. html). . Retrieved May 4, 2000.
[32] Goodenough, Patrick (February 16, 2005). "A Glacier Grows, Undeterred by Heated Kyoto Debate" (http:/ / www. cnsnews. com/ public/
content/ article. aspx?RsrcID=16325). Cybercast News Service. .
[33] Mauri S. Pelto; Cliff Hedlund (2001). "Terminus behavior and response time of North Cascade glaciers, Washington, U.S.A" (http:/ / www.
nichols. edu/ departments/ glacier/ terminus_behavior_and_response_t. htm). Journal of Glaciology 47 (158): 497–506.
doi:10.3189/172756501781832098. .
[34] Mauri S. Pelto (Nichols College). "North Cascade Glacier Terminus Behavior" (http:/ / www. nichols. edu/ departments/ glacier/ north
cascade glacier retreat. htm). . Retrieved January, 2010.
[35] U.S. Geological Survey. "Glacier Monitoring in Glacier National Park" (http:/ / www. nrmsc. usgs. gov/ research/ glaciers. htm). . Retrieved
April 25, 2003.
[36] U.S. Geological Survey, U.S.Department of the Interior. "Glacier Retreat in Glacier National Park, Montana" (http:/ / nrmsc. usgs. gov/
research/ glacier_retreat. htm). . Retrieved April 25, 2003.
[37] Wyoming Water Resources Data System Library. "Glacial Icemelt in the Wind River Range, Wyoming" (http:/ / library. wrds. uwyo. edu/
wrp/ 90-16/ 90-16. html). . Retrieved July 11, 1990.
[38] Canadian Cryospheric Information Network. "Past Variability of Canadian Glaciers" (http:/ / www. socc. uwaterloo. ca/ glaciers/
glaciers_hist_e. cfm). . Retrieved February 14, 2006.
[39] J.Koch, B.Menounos and J.Clague (2009). "Glacier change in Garibaldi Provincial Park, southern Coast Mountains, British Columbia, since
the Little Ice Age". Global and Planetary Change. 66 (3-4) 161-178 (3–4): 161. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.11.006.
[40] Bruce F. Molnia. "Repeated Rapid Retreats of Bering Glacier by Disarticulation—The Cyclic Dynamic Response of an Alaskan Glacier
System" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ meetings/ fm05/ fm05-sessions/ fm05_C42A. html). . Retrieved December 2005.
[41] Bruce F. Molnia. "Fast-flow advance and parallel rapid retreat of non-surging tidewater glaciers in Icy Bay and Yakutat Bay, Alaska
1888–2003" (http:/ / gsa. confex. com/ gsa/ 2003AM/ finalprogram/ abstract_65710. htm). . Retrieved September 6, 2003.
[42] Mauri S. Pelto and Maynard M. Miller. "Terminus Behavior of Juneau Icefield Glaciers 1948–2005" (http:/ / www. nichols. edu/
departments/ Glacier/ juneau icefield. htm). North Cascade Glacier Climate Project. . Retrieved December 2006.
[43] Mauri S. Pelto, Maynard M. Miller. "Mass Balance of the Taku Glacier, Alaska 1946–1986" (http:/ / www. nichols. edu/ departments/
Glacier/ taku. html) (PDF). . Retrieved 2008.
[44] Maynard M. Miller, Mauri S. Pelto. "Mass Balance Measurements of the Lemon Creek Glacier, Juneau Icefield, Alaska, 1953–2005" (http:/
/ www. nichols. edu/ departments/ glacier/ Lemon. html). . Retrieved February 2006.
[45] Anthony A. Arendt et al. (July 19, 2002). "Rapid Wastage of Alaska Glaciers and Their Contribution to Rising Sea Level" (http:/ / www.
sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ short/ 297/ 5580/ 382). Science 297 (5580): 382–386. doi:10.1126/science.1072497. PMID 12130781. .
[46] Guy W. Adema et al.. "Melting Denali: Effects of Climate Change on the Glaciers of Denali National Park and Preserve" (http:/ / www. nps.
gov/ akso/ AKParkScience/ ClimateChange/ adema. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved September 9, 2007.
[47] News, BBC (April 27, 2004). "Patagonian ice in rapid retreat" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ sci/ tech/ 3662975. stm). BBC News. .
[48] Skvarca, P. and R. Naruse (1997). "Dynamic behavior of glaciar Perito Moreno, Southern Patagonia". Annals of Glaciology 24 (1):
268–271. Bibcode 1986GeoRL..13...46H. doi:10.1029/GL013i001p00046.
Casassa, G., H. Brecher, A. Rivera and M. Aniya, (1997). "A century-long record of glacier O’Higgins, Patagonia". Annals of Glaciology 24
(1): 106–110. Bibcode 1986GeoRL..13...46H. doi:10.1029/GL013i001p00046.
[49] "Huge glaciers retreat on a large scale in Patagonia, South America" (http:/ / www. eorc. jaxa. jp/ en/ imgdata/ topics/ 2008/ tp080903.
html). Earth Observation research Center. July 15, 2005. . Retrieved June 13, 2009.
[50] Brown, F., Rivera, A., Acuna, C. (2008). "Recent glaciers variations at the Aconcagua Basin, central Chilean Andes" (http:/ / www.
glaciologia. cl/ textos/ bown-rivera-acuna. pdf) (PDF). Annals of glaciology 48 (2): 43–48. doi:10.3189/172756408784700572. .
[51] Pierrehumbert, Raymond (May 23, 2005). "Tropical Glacier Retreat" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php?p=157). RealClimate. .
Retrieved March 8, 2010.
[52] "Snows of Kilimanjaro Disappearing, Glacial Ice Loss Increasing" (http:/ / www. geology. ohio-state. edu/ news_detail. php?newsId=1).
Ohio State University. . Retrieved August 31, 2006.
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 343

[53] Andrew Wielochowski. "Glacial recession on Kilimanjaro" (http:/ / www. kilimanjaro. cc/ glacial-recession. htm). . Retrieved October 6,
1998.
[54] Lonnie G. Thompson, et alia (2002 (October 18)). "Kilimanjaro Ice Core Records: Evidence of Holocene Climate Change in Tropical
Africa" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 298/ 5593/ 589). Science 298 (5593): 589–593. doi:10.1126/science.1073198.
PMID 12386332. .
Ohio State University. "African Ice Core Analysis reveals catastrophic droughts, shrinking ice fields and civilization shifts" (http:/ /
researchnews. osu. edu/ archive/ kilicores. htm). Ohio State Research News. . Retrieved October 3, 2002.
[55] Unlimited, Guardian (March 14, 2005). "The peak of Mt Kilimanjaro as it has not been seen for 11,000 years" (http:/ / www. guardian. co.
uk/ climatechange/ story/ 0,,1437901,00. html). The Guardian. .
Tyson, Peter. "Vanishing into Thin Air" (http:/ / www. pbs. org/ wgbh/ nova/ kilimanjaro/ vanishing. html). Volcano Above the Clouds.
NOVA. . Retrieved August 2006.
[56] Thompson, Lonnie G., et al.. "Kilimanjaro Ice Core Records: Evidence of Holocene Climate Change in Tropical Africa" (http:/ / www. geo.
umass. edu/ climate/ doug/ pubs/ thompson_etal_sci02. pdf) (PDF). Science. . Retrieved August 31, 2006.
[57] U.S. Geological Survey. "Glaciers of Africa" (http:/ / pubs. usgs. gov/ prof/ p1386g/ africa. pdf#search='USGS Mount Kilimanjaro glacier')
(PDF). U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1386-G-3. .
[58] Andrew Wielochowski. "Glacial recession in the Rwenzori" (http:/ / www. kilimanjaro. cc/ rwenzoriglaciers. htm). . Retrieved July 20,
2001.
[59] Bernard Francou. "Small Glaciers Of The Andes May Vanish In 10–15 Years" (http:/ / unisci. com/ stories/ 20011/ 0117013. htm). UniSci,
International Science News. . Retrieved January 22, 2001.
[60] Huggel, Cristian; Ceballos, Jorge Luis; Pulgarín, Bernardo; Ramírez, Jair; Thouret, Jean-Claude (2007). "Review and reassessment of
hazards owing to volcano–glacier interactions in Colombia" (http:/ / www. igsoc. org/ annals/ 45/ a45A019. pdf) (PDF). Annals of Glaciology
45 (1): 128–136. doi:10.3189/172756407782282408. .
[61] U.S. Geological Survey, U.S.Department of the Interior. "Peruvian Cordilleras" (http:/ / pubs. usgs. gov/ prof/ p1386i/ peru/ occident. html).
. Retrieved February 9, 1999.
[62] Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University. "Peru – Quelccaya (1974–1983)" (http:/ / www-bprc. mps. ohio-state. edu/ Icecore/
Quelccaya. html). Ice Core Paleoclimatology Research Group. . Retrieved February 10, 2006.
[63] Joni L. Kincaid and Andrew G. Klein. "Retreat of the Irian Jaya Glaciers from 2000 to 2002 as Measured from IKONOS Satellite Images"
(http:/ / www. easternsnow. org/ proceedings/ 2004/ kincaid_and_klein. pdf#search='meren glacier') (PDF). 61st Eastern Snow Conference
Portland, Maine, USA 2004. . Retrieved 2004.
[64] Jakarta Globe (July 2, 2010). "Papua Glacier’s Secrets Dripping Away: Scientists" (http:/ / www. thejakartaglobe. com/ news/
papua-glaciers-secrets-dripping-away-scientists/ 383881). . Retrieved 2010-09-14.
[65] Ian Allison and James A. Peterson. "Glaciers of Irian Jaya, Indonesia and New Zealand" (http:/ / pubs. usgs. gov/ prof/ p1386h/ indonesia/
indonesia. html). U.S. Geological Survey, U.S.Department of the Interior. . Retrieved April 28, 2009.
[66] Sigurdsson, Oddur, Trausti Jonsson and Tomas Johannesson. "Relation between glacier-termini variations and summer temperature in
Iceland since 1930" (http:/ / www. igsoc. org/ annals/ 46/ a46A210. pdf) (PDF). Hydrological Service, National Energy Authority. . Retrieved
September 7, 2007.
[67] W. Abdalati et alia (November 20, 2004). "Elevation changes of ice caps in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (Abstract)" (http:/ / www. agu.
org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2004/ 2003JF000045. shtml). American Geophysical Union 109 (F04007): F04007. .
[68] David O. Burgess and Martin J. Sharpa (2003 (December)). "Recent Changes in Areal Extent of the Devon Ice Cap, Nunavut, Canada"
(http:/ / www. bioone. org/ bioone/ ?request=get-abstract& issn=1523-0430& volume=036& issue=02& page=0261). BioOne 36 (2):
261–271. doi:10.1657/1523-0430(2004)036[0261:RCIAEO]2.0.CO;2. ISSN 1523-0430. .
[69] Braun, Carsten; Hardy, D.R.; and Bradley, R.S. (2004). "Mass balance and area changes of four High Arctic plateau ice caps, 1959–2002"
(http:/ / www. geo. umass. edu/ faculty/ bradley/ braun2004. pdf) (PDF). Geografiska Annaler 86 (A): 43–52.
doi:10.1111/j.0435-3676.2004.00212.x. .
[70] National Geographic. "Giant Ice Shelf Breaks Off in Canadian Arctic" (http:/ / news. nationalgeographic. com/ news/ 2006/ 12/
061229-arctic-ice_2. html). . Retrieved December 2006.
[71] Mueller, Vincent and Jeffries. "Break-up of the largest Arctic ice shelf and associated loss of an epishelf lake" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/
crossref/ 2003/ 2003GL017931. shtml). . Retrieved December 2006.
[72] Glowacki, Piotr. "Glaciology and environmental monitoring" (http:/ / hornsund. igf. edu. pl/ srodowisko_en. html). Research in Hornsund. .
Retrieved February 14, 2006.
[73] GreenPeace (2002). "Arctic environment melts before our eyes" (http:/ / www. svalbard-images. com/ spitsbergen/ global-warming-e. php).
Global Warming—Greenpeace Pictures in Spitsbergen. . Retrieved February 14, 2006.
[74] David Rippin, Ian Willis, Neil Arnold, Andrew Hodson, John Moore, Jack Kohler and Helgi Bjornsson (2003). "Changes in Geometry and
Subglacial Drainage of Midre Lovenbreen, Svalbard, Determined from Digital Elevation Models" (http:/ / www. ulapland. fi/ home/ hkunta/
jmoore/ pdfs/ Rippin_et_al_2003. pdf) (PDF). Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 28 (3): 273–298. doi:10.1002/esp.485. .
[75] Aleksey I. Sharov (2005). "Studying changes of ice coasts in the European Arctic" (http:/ / dib. joanneum. at/ integral/
publications\GML_Sharov. pdf) (PDF). Geo-Marine Letters 25 (2–3): 153–166. doi:10.1007/s00367-004-0197-7. .
[76] Rignot, E. and Kanagaratnam, P. (February 17, 2006). "Changes in the Velocity Structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet" (http:/ / www.
sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 311/ 5763/ 986). Science 311 (5763): 986–990. doi:10.1126/science.1121381. PMID 16484490. .
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 344

Retrieved November 2009.


[77] Ian Howat. "Rapidly accelerating glaciers may increase how fast the sea level rises" (http:/ / currents. ucsc. edu/ 05-06/ 11-14/ glacier. asp).
UC Santa Cruz, November 14–27, 2005 Vol. 10, No. 14. . Retrieved November 27, 2005.
[78] M Truffer, University of Alaska Fairbanks; M Fahnestock, University of New Hampshire. "The Dynamics of Glacier System Response:
Tidewater Glaciers and the Ice Streams and Outlet Glaciers of Greenland and Antarctica I" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ meetings/ fm05/
fm05-sessions/ fm05_C41A. html). . Retrieved 2005.
[79] S.Das, I, Joughin, M. Behm, I. Howat, M. King, D. Lizarralde, M. Bhatia. "Fracture Propagation to the Base of the Greenland Ice Sheet
During Supraglacial Lake Drainage" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 1153360). . Retrieved 2009.
[80] M. Pelto. "Moulins, Calving Fronts and Greenland Outlet Glacier Acceleration" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php/ archives/ 2008/
04/ moulins-calving-fronts-and-greenland-outlet-glacier-acceleration/ #more-550). . Retrieved 2009.
[81] T. Hughes (1986). "The Jakobshanvs effect". Geophysical Research Letters 13 (1): 46–48. Bibcode 1986GeoRL..13...46H.
doi:10.1029/GL013i001p00046.
[82] National Snow and Ice Data Center (March 21, 2002). "Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapses in Antarctica" (http:/ / nsidc. org/ news/ press/
larsen_B/ 2002. html). The Cryosphere, Where the World is Frozen. . Retrieved November 5, 2009.
[83] A.Cook and D.Vaughan. "Overview of areal changes of the ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula over the past 50 years" (http:/ / www.
the-cryosphere-discuss. net/ 3/ 579/ 2009/ tcd-3-579-2009. pd). . Retrieved January, 2010.
[84] Rignot, E., Casassa, G., Gogineni, P., Krabill, W., Rivera, A., and Thomas, R. (July 24, 2004). "Accelerated ice discharge from the Antarctic
Peninsula following the collapse of Larsen B Ice Shelf" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2004/ 2004GL020697. shtml). GRL 31 (18):
L18401. doi:10.1029/2004GL020697. .
[85] M. Humbert, A. Braun and A. Moll (2008). "Changes of Wilkins Ice Shelf over the past 15 years and inferences on its stability" (http:/ /
www. the-cryosphere-discuss. net/ 2/ 341/ 2008/ tcd-2-341-2008. pdf). The Cryosphere 2 (3): 341–382. doi:10.5194/tcd-2-341-2008. .
[86] "Satellite imagery shows fragile Wilkins Ice Shelf destabilised" (http:/ / www. esa. int/ esaEO/ SEMRAVANJTF_index_0. html). European
Space Agency. June 13, 2009. .
[87] Rignot, E. J. (July 24, 1998). "Fast Recession of a West Antarctic Glacier" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 281/ 5376/
549). Science 281 (5376): 549–551. doi:10.1126/science.281.5376.549. PMID 9677195. .
[88] News, AAAS (April 21, 2005). "New Study in Science Finds Glaciers in Retreat on Antarctic Peninsula" (http:/ / www. aaas. org/ news/
releases/ 2005/ 0421glaciers. shtml). American Association for the Advancement of Science. .
[89] News, BBC (April 21, 2005). "Antarctic glaciers show retreat" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 4471135. stm). BBC News. .
[90] News, BBC (October 9, 2003). "Melting glaciers threaten Peru" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ world/ americas/ 3172572. stm). BBC
News. .
[91] M. Olefs and A.Fischer. "Comparative study of technical measures to reduce snow and ice ablation in Alpine glacier ski resorts" (http:/ /
imgi. uibk. ac. at/ sekretariat/ Publikationen/ pub_pdf/ Olefs_Comparative_austauschen_in press. ). in "Cold Regions Science and Technology,
2007". . Retrieved September 6, 2009.
[92] ENN (July 15, 2005). "Glacial Cover-Up Won't Stop Global Warming, But It Keeps Skiers Happy" (http:/ / www. enn. com/ today.
html?id=8245). Environmental News Network. .
[93] Rahmstorf S, Cazenave A, Church JA, et al. (May 2007). "Recent climate observations compared to projections". Science 316 (5825): 709.
doi:10.1126/science.1136843. PMID 17272686.
[94] Velicogna, I. (2009). "Increasing rates of ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets revealed by GRACE". Geophysical
Research Letters 36 (19). doi:10.1029/2009GL040222.
[95] Cazenave, A.; Dominh, K.; Guinehut, S.; Berthier, E.; Llovel, W.; Ramillien, G.; Ablain, M.; Larnicol, G. (2009). "Sea level budget over
2003–2008: A reevaluation from GRACE space gravimetry, satellite altimetry and Argo". Global and Planetary Change 65: 83–88.
doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.10.004.
[96] Pfeffer WT, Harper JT, O'Neel S (September 2008). "Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st-century sea-level rise". Science
321 (5894): 1340–3. doi:10.1126/science.1159099. PMID 18772435.

Further reading
• Aniya, M. and Y.Wakao (1997). "Glacier variations of Heilo Patagonico Norte, Chile between 1945–46 and
1995–96". Bulletin of Glacier Research 15: 11–18.
• Hall M.H. and Fagre, D.B (2003). "Modeled Climate-Induced Glacier Change in Glacier National Park,
1850–2100". BioScience 53 (2): 131–140. doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2003)053[0131:MCIGCI]2.0.CO;2.
ISSN 0006-3568.
• Hastenrath, S. (2008). Recession of Equatorial Glaciers: A Photodocumentation (http://www.sundogpublishing.
com/Hastenrath/Announcement.html). Madison, WI: Sundog Publishing. ISBN 978-0-9729033-3-2.
• IUGG(CCS)/UNEP/UNESCO (2005). Haeberli, W., Zemp, M., Frauenfelder, R., Hoelzle, M. and Kääb, A.. ed.
Fluctuations of Glaciers 1995–2000, Vol. VIII. Paris: World Glacier Monitoring Service.
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 345

• National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior. "Icefields and Glaciers" (http://www.fs.fed.us/r10/
tongass/forest_facts/resources/geology/icefields.htm). Tongass National Forest, Forest Facts. Retrieved July
10, 2002.
• NOAA. "Arctic Change" (http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/ice-glacier.shtml). Study of Environmental
Arctic Change. Retrieved February 15, 2006.
• Pelto, M.S. and Hartzell, P.L. (2004). "Change in longitudinal profile on three North Cascades glaciers during the
last 100 years". Hydrologic Processes 18 (6): 1139–1146. doi:10.1002/hyp.5513.
• Pelto, M.S. and Hedlund, C. (2001). "The terminus behavior and response time of North Cascade glaciers".
Journal of Glaciology 47 (158): 497–506. doi:10.3189/172756501781832098.
• Pidwirny M. "Glacial Processes" (http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/10ae.html).
PhysicalGeography.net. Retrieved February 2, 2006.
• University College London. "Climate change and the aquatic ecosystems of the Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda"
(http://www.geog.ucl.ac.uk/~rtaylor/data_disk/rwenzori/rwenzori_fo_ir.htm). Glaciology—assessing the
magnitude of current glacial recession. Retrieved September 3, 2003.
• Wielochowski A. "Glacial recession on Kilimanjaro" (http://www.kilimanjaro.cc/glacial-recession.htm).
Retrieved October 6, 1998.

External links
• "United Nations Environment Programme: Global Outlook for Ice and Snow" (http://www.unep.org/geo/
geo_ice/).

Extinction risk from global warming


The extinction risk of global warming is the risk species have of becoming extinct due to the effects of global
warming. Many species are under threat, and model predictions demonstrate that global warming has the potential to
cause a mass extinction.

Current projections
The scientific consensus in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report is that "Anthropogenic warming could lead to some
impacts that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change." "There is
medium confidence that approximately 20-30% of species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of
extinction if increases in global average warming exceed 1.5-2.5 °C (relative to 1980-1999). As global average
temperature increase exceeds about 3.5°C, model projections suggest significant extinctions (40-70% of species
assessed) around the globe."
In one study published in Nature in 2004, between 15 and 37% of known plant and animal species will be
"committed to extinction" by 2050.[1] More properly, changes in habitat by 2050 will put them outside the survival
range for the inhabitants, thus committing the species to extinction.
Other researchers, such as Thuiller et al.,[2] Araújo et al.[3] , Person et al.,[4] Buckley and Roughgarden,[5] and Harte
et al.[6] have raised concern regarding uncertainty in Thomas et al.'s projections; some of these studies believe it is
an overestimate, others believe the risk could be greater. Thomas et al. replied in Nature [7] addressing criticisms and
concluding "Although further investigation is needed into each of these areas, it is unlikely to result in substantially
reduced estimates of extinction. Anthropogenic climate change seems set to generate very large numbers of
species-level extinctions." On the other hand, Daniel Botkin et al. state "... global estimates of extinctions due to
climate change (Thomas et al. 2004) may have greatly overestimated the probability of extinction..."[8]
Extinction risk from global warming 346

Mechanistic studies are documenting extinctions due to recent climate change: McLaughlin et al. documented two
populations of Bay checkerspot butterfly being threatened by precipitation change.[9] Parmesan states, "Few studies
have been conducted at a scale that encompasses an entire species"[10] and McLaughlin et al. agreed "few
mechanistic studies have linked extinctions to recent climate change."[9]
In 2008, the white lemuroid possum was reported to be the first known mammal species to be driven extinct by
man-made global warming. However, these reports were based on a misunderstanding. One population of these
possums in the mountain forests of northern Queensland is severely threatened by climate change as the animals
cannot survive extended temperatures over 30 °C. However, another population 100 kilometres south remains in
good health.[11]

References
[1] Thomas, C.D.; Cameron, A.; Green, R.E.; Bakkenes, M.; Beaumont, L.J.; Collingham, Y.C.; Erasmus, B.F.N.; Siqueira, M.F.D.; Grainger,
A.; Hannah, L. (2004). "Extinction risk from climate change" (http:/ / www. mnp. nl/ bibliotheek/ digitaaldepot/ 20040108nature. pdf) (PDF).
Nature 427 (6970): 145–148. doi:10.1038/nature02121. PMID 14712274. . Retrieved 2008-04-15.
[2] Thuiller, W.; Araújo, M.B.; Pearson, R.G.; Whittaker, R.J.; Brotons, L.; Lavorel, S. (2004). "Biodiversity conservation: Uncertainty in
predictions of extinction risk". Nature 430: 1. doi:10.1038/nature02716.
[3] Araújo, M.B.; Miguel B.; Whittaker, Robert J.; Ladle, Richard J.; Erhard, Markus (2005). "Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction
risk from climate change" (http:/ / www. ingentaconnect. com/ content/ bsc/ geb/ 2005/ 00000014/ 00000006/ art00004). Global Ecology &
Biogeography, 14 (6): 529–538(10). doi:10.1111/j.1466-822X.2005.00182.x. .
[4] Pearson, Richard G.; Richard G. Pearson, Wilfried Thuiller, Miguel B. Araujo, Enrique Martinez-Meyer, Lluıs Brotons, Colin McClean, Lera
Miles, Pedro Segurado, Terence P. Dawson and David C. Lees (2006). "Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction" (http:/ / www.
will. chez-alice. fr/ pdf/ PearsonJBI2006. pdf) (PDF). Journal of Biogeography 33: 1704–1711. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01460.x. .
Retrieved 2008-04-15.
[5] Buckley, L. B; Roughgarden (2004). "Biodiversity conservation: Effects of changes in climate and land use" (http:/ / www. nature. com/
nature/ journal/ v430/ n6995/ abs/ nature02717. html). Nature 430. doi:10.1038/nature02717. .
[6] John Harte; Annette Ostling, Jessica L. Green & Ann Kinzig (2004). "Biodiversity conservation: Climate change and extinction risk" (http:/ /
www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v430/ n6995/ abs/ nature02718. html). Nature 430. doi:10.1038/nature02718. .
[7] Thomas, C.D; Cameron, A.; Green, R.E.; Bakkenes, M.; Beaumont, L.J.; Collingham, Y.C.; Erasmus, B.F.N.; Siqueira, M.F.D.; Grainger, A.;
Hannah, L. (2004). "Biodiversity conservation: Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk/Effects of changes in climate and land use/Climate
change and extinction risk (reply)" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v430/ n6995/ full/ nature02719. html). Nature 430.
doi:10.1038/nature02719. .
[8] Botkin, Daniel B.; et al. (March 2007). "Forecasting the Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity" (http:/ / www. imv. dk/ Admin/ Public/
DWSDownload. aspx?File=/ Files/ Filer/ IMV/ Publikationer/ Fagartikler/ 2007/ 050307_Botkin_et_al. pdf). BioScience 57 (3): 227–236.
doi:10.1641/B570306. . Retrieved 2007-11-30.
[9] McLaughlin, John F.; et al. (2002-04-30). "Climate change hastens population extinctions" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070604183008/
http:/ / www. nd. edu/ ~hellmann/ pnas. pdf) (PDF). PNAS 99 (9): 6070–6074. doi:10.1073/pnas.052131199. PMC 122903. PMID 11972020.
Archived from the original (http:/ / www. nd. edu/ ~hellmann/ pnas. pdf) on 2007-06-04. . Retrieved 2007-03-29.
[10] Permesan, Camille (2006-08-24). "Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change" (http:/ / cns. utexas. edu/
communications/ File/ AnnRev_CCimpacts2006. pdf) (PDF). Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 37: 637–669.
doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100. . Retrieved 2007-03-30.
[11] Rumours of possum's death were greatly exaggerated (http:/ / www. newscientist. com/ article/ dn16875)
Ozone depletion 347

Ozone depletion
Ozone depletion describes two distinct but related phenomena
observed since the late 1970s: a steady decline of about 4% per decade
in the total volume of ozone in Earth's stratosphere (the ozone layer),
and a much larger springtime decrease in stratospheric ozone over
Earth's polar regions. The latter phenomenon is referred to as the ozone
hole. In addition to these well-known stratospheric phenomena, there
are also springtime polar tropospheric ozone depletion events.

The details of polar ozone hole formation differ from that of


mid-latitude thinning, but the most important process in both is
catalytic destruction of ozone by atomic halogens.[1] The main source
of these halogen atoms in the stratosphere is photodissociation of
man-made Halocarbon refrigerants (CFCs, freons, halons.) These Image of the largest Antarctic ozone hole ever
compounds are transported into the stratosphere after being emitted at recorded (September 2006).

the surface. [2] Both types of ozone depletion were observed to increase
as emissions of Halocarbons increased.

CFCs and other contributory substances are referred to as ozone-depleting substances (ODS). Since the ozone layer
prevents most harmful UVB wavelengths (280–315 nm) of ultraviolet light (UV light) from passing through the
Earth's atmosphere, observed and projected decreases in ozone have generated worldwide concern leading to
adoption of the Montreal Protocol that bans the production of CFCs, halons as and other ozone-depleting chemicals
such as carbon tetrachloride and trichloroethane. It is suspected that a variety of biological consequences such as
increases in skin cancer, cataracts,[3] damage to plants, and reduction of plankton populations in the ocean's photic
zone may result from the increased UV exposure due to ozone depletion.

Ozone cycle overview


Three forms (or allotropes) of oxygen are
involved in the ozone-oxygen cycle: oxygen
atoms (O or atomic oxygen), oxygen gas
(O2 or diatomic oxygen), and ozone gas (O3
or triatomic oxygen). Ozone is formed in the
stratosphere when oxygen molecules
photodissociate after absorbing an
ultraviolet photon whose wavelength is
shorter than 240 nm. This converts a single
O2 into two atomic oxygen ions. The atomic
oxygen ions then combine with separate O2
molecules to create two O3 molecules.
These ozone molecules absorb UV light
between 310 and 200 nm, following which The ozone cycle
ozone splits into a molecule of O2 and an
oxygen atom. The oxygen atom then joins up with an oxygen molecule to regenerate ozone. This is a continuing
process which terminates when an oxygen atom "recombines" with an ozone molecule to make two O2 molecules.

O + O3 → 2 O2
Ozone depletion 348

The overall amount of ozone in the


stratosphere is determined by a balance
between photochemical production and
recombination.
Ozone can be destroyed by a number of free
radical catalysts, the most important of
which are the hydroxyl radical (OH·), the
nitric oxide radical (NO·), the atomic
chlorine ion (Cl·) and the atomic bromine
ion (Br·). All of these have both natural and
Global monthly average total ozone amount.
man-made sources; at the present time, most
of the OH· and NO· in the stratosphere is of
natural origin, but human activity has
dramatically increased the levels of chlorine
and bromine. These elements are found in
certain stable organic compounds, especially
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which may
find their way to the stratosphere without
being destroyed in the troposphere due to
their low reactivity. Once in the
stratosphere, the Cl and Br atoms are
liberated from the parent compounds by the
action of ultraviolet light, e.g. ('h' is Planck's
constant, 'ν' is frequency of electromagnetic
radiation)

CFCl3 + hν → CFCl2 + Cl
The Cl and Br atoms can then destroy ozone
molecules through a variety of catalytic
cycles. In the simplest example of such a
cycle,[4] a chlorine atom reacts with an
ozone molecule, taking an oxygen atom
with it (forming ClO) and leaving a normal
oxygen molecule. The chlorine monoxide
(i.e., the ClO) can react with a second
Layers of the
molecule of ozone (i.e., O3) to yield another
atmosphere (not
chlorine atom and two molecules of oxygen. to scale)
The chemical shorthand for these gas-phase
reactions is:

Cl + O3 → ClO + O2
ClO + O3 → Cl + 2 O2
The overall effect is a decrease in the amount of ozone. More complicated mechanisms have been discovered that
lead to ozone destruction in the lower stratosphere as well.
A single chlorine atom would keep on destroying ozone (thus a catalyst) for up to two years (the time scale for
transport back down to the troposphere) were it not for reactions that remove them from this cycle by forming
reservoir species such as hydrogen chloride (HCl) and chlorine nitrate (ClONO2). On a per atom basis, bromine is
Ozone depletion 349

even more efficient than chlorine at destroying ozone, but there is much less bromine in the atmosphere at present.
As a result, both chlorine and bromine contribute significantly to the overall ozone depletion. Laboratory studies
have shown that fluorine and iodine atoms participate in analogous catalytic cycles. However, in the Earth's
stratosphere, fluorine atoms react rapidly with water and methane to form strongly bound HF, while organic
molecules which contain iodine react so rapidly in the lower atmosphere that they do not reach the stratosphere in
significant quantities. Furthermore, a single chlorine atom is able to react with 100,000 ozone molecules. This fact
plus the amount of chlorine released into the atmosphere by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) yearly demonstrates how
dangerous CFCs are to the environment.[5]

Observations on ozone layer depletion


The most pronounced decrease in ozone has been in the lower stratosphere. However, the ozone hole is most usually
measured not in terms of ozone concentrations at these levels (which are typically of a few parts per million) but by
reduction in the total column ozone, above a point on the Earth's surface, which is normally expressed in Dobson
units, abbreviated as "DU". Marked decreases in column ozone in the Antarctic spring and early summer compared
to the early 1970s and before have been observed using instruments such as the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer
(TOMS).[6]
Reductions of up to 70% in the ozone column observed
in the austral (southern hemispheric) spring over
Antarctica and first reported in 1985 (Farman et al.
1985) are continuing.[7] Through the 1990s, total
column ozone in September and October have
continued to be 40–50% lower than pre-ozone-hole
values. In the Arctic the amount lost is more variable
year-to-year than in the Antarctic. The greatest
declines, up to 30%, are in the winter and spring, when
the stratosphere is colder.

Reactions that take place on polar stratospheric clouds


(PSCs) play an important role in enhancing ozone
Lowest value of ozone measured by TOMS each year in the ozone
depletion.[8] PSCs form more readily in the extreme
hole.
cold of Antarctic stratosphere. This is why ozone holes
first formed, and are deeper, over Antarctica. Early
models failed to take PSCs into account and predicted a gradual global depletion, which is why the sudden Antarctic
ozone hole was such a surprise to many scientists.

In middle latitudes it is preferable to speak of ozone depletion rather than holes. Declines are about 3% below
pre-1980 values for 35–60°N and about 6% for 35–60°S. In the tropics, there are no significant trends.[9]
Ozone depletion also explains much of the observed reduction in stratospheric and upper tropospheric
temperatures.[10] [11] The source of the warmth of the stratosphere is the absorption of UV radiation by ozone, hence
reduced ozone leads to cooling. Some stratospheric cooling is also predicted from increases in greenhouse gases such
as CO2; however the ozone-induced cooling appears to be dominant.
Predictions of ozone levels remain difficult. The World Meteorological Organization Global Ozone Research and
Monitoring Project—Report No. 44 [12] comes out strongly in favor for the Montreal Protocol, but notes that a
UNEP 1994 Assessment overestimated ozone loss for the 1994–1997 period.
Ozone depletion 350

Chemicals in the atmosphere

CFCs and related compounds in the atmosphere


Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODS) are mainly responsible for
man-made chemical ozone depletion. The total amount of effective halogens (chlorine and bromine) in the
stratosphere can be calculated and are known as the equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC).[13]
CFCs were invented by Thomas Midgley, Jr. in the 1920s. They were used in air conditioning/cooling units, as
aerosol spray propellants prior to the 1980s, and in the cleaning processes of delicate electronic equipment. They
also occur as by-products of some chemical processes. No significant natural sources have ever been identified for
these compounds — their presence in the atmosphere is due almost entirely to human manufacture. As mentioned in
the ozone cycle overview above, when such ozone-depleting chemicals reach the stratosphere, they are dissociated by
ultraviolet light to release chlorine atoms. The chlorine atoms act as a catalyst, and each can break down tens of
thousands of ozone molecules before being removed from the stratosphere. Given the longevity of CFC molecules,
recovery times are measured in decades. It is calculated that a CFC molecule takes an average of about five to seven
years to go from the ground level up to the upper atmosphere, and it can stay there for about a century, destroying up
to one hundred thousand ozone molecules during that time.[14]

Verification of observations
Scientists have been increasingly able to attribute the observed ozone depletion to the increase of man-made
(anthropogenic) halogen compounds from CFCs by the use of complex chemistry transport models and their
validation against observational data (e.g. SLIMCAT, CLaMS — Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere).
These models work by combining satellite measurements of chemical concentrations and meteorological fields with
chemical reaction rate constants obtained in lab experiments. They are able to identify not only the key chemical
reactions but also the transport processes which bring CFC photolysis products into contact with ozone.

The ozone hole and its causes


The Antarctic ozone hole is an area of
the Antarctic stratosphere in which the
recent ozone levels have dropped to as
low as 33% of their pre-1975 values.
The ozone hole occurs during the
Antarctic spring, from September to
early December, as strong westerly
winds start to circulate around the
continent and create an atmospheric
container. Within this polar vortex,
over 50% of the lower stratospheric
ozone is destroyed during the Antarctic
spring.[16]

As explained above, the primary cause


Ozone hole in North America during 1984 (abnormally warm reducing ozone depletion)
of ozone depletion is the presence of [15]
and 1997 (abnormally cold resulting in increased seasonal depletion). Source: NASA
chlorine-containing source gases
(primarily CFCs and related
halocarbons). In the presence of UV light, these gases dissociate, releasing chlorine atoms, which then go on to
Ozone depletion 351

catalyze ozone destruction. The Cl-catalyzed ozone depletion can take place in the gas phase, but it is dramatically
enhanced in the presence of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs).[17]
These polar stratospheric clouds(PSC) form during winter, in the extreme cold. Polar winters are dark, consisting of
3 months without solar radiation (sunlight). The lack of sunlight contributes to a decrease in temperature and the
polar vortex traps and chills air. Temperatures hover around or below -80 °C. These low temperatures form cloud
particles. There are three types of PSC clouds; nitric acid trihydrate clouds, slowly cooling water-ice clouds, and
rapid cooling water-ice(nacerous) clouds; that provide surfaces for chemical reactions that lead to ozone
destruction.[18]
The photochemical processes involved are complex but well understood. The key observation is that, ordinarily,
most of the chlorine in the stratosphere resides in stable "reservoir" compounds, primarily hydrochloric acid (HCl)
and chlorine nitrate (ClONO2). During the Antarctic winter and spring, however, reactions on the surface of the
polar stratospheric cloud particles convert these "reservoir" compounds into reactive free radicals (Cl and ClO). The
clouds can also remove NO2 from the atmosphere by converting it to nitric acid, which prevents the newly formed
ClO from being converted back into ClONO2.
The role of sunlight in ozone depletion is the reason why the Antarctic ozone depletion is greatest during spring.
During winter, even though PSCs are at their most abundant, there is no light over the pole to drive the chemical
reactions. During the spring, however, the sun comes out, providing energy to drive photochemical reactions, and
melt the polar stratospheric clouds, releasing the trapped compounds. Warming temperatures near the end of spring
break up the vortex around mid-December. As warm, ozone-rich air flows in from lower latitudes, the PSCs are
destroyed, the ozone depletion process shuts down, and the ozone hole closes.[19]
Most of the ozone that is destroyed is in the lower stratosphere, in contrast to the much smaller ozone depletion
through homogeneous gas phase reactions, which occurs primarily in the upper stratosphere.[20]

Interest in ozone layer depletion


While the effect of the Antarctic ozone hole in decreasing the global ozone is relatively small, estimated at about 4%
per decade, the hole has generated a great deal of interest because:
• The decrease in the ozone layer was predicted in the early 1980s to be roughly 7% over a 60 year period.
• The sudden recognition in 1985 that there was a substantial "hole" was widely reported in the press. The
especially rapid ozone depletion in Antarctica had previously been dismissed as a measurement error.[21]
• Many were worried that ozone holes might start to appear over other areas of the globe but to date the only other
large-scale depletion is a smaller ozone "dimple" observed during the Arctic spring over the North Pole. Ozone at
middle latitudes has declined, but by a much smaller extent (about 4–5% decrease).
• If the conditions became more severe (cooler stratospheric temperatures, more stratospheric clouds, more active
chlorine), then global ozone may decrease at a much greater pace. Standard global warming theory predicts that
the stratosphere will cool.[22]
• When the Antarctic ozone hole breaks up, the ozone-depleted air drifts out into nearby areas. Decreases in the
ozone level of up to 10% have been reported in New Zealand in the month following the break-up of the Antarctic
ozone hole.[23]

Consequences of ozone layer depletion


Since the ozone layer absorbs UVB ultraviolet light from the Sun, ozone layer depletion is expected to increase
surface UVB levels, which could lead to damage, including increases in skin cancer. This was the reason for the
Montreal Protocol. Although decreases in stratospheric ozone are well-tied to CFCs and there are good theoretical
reasons to believe that decreases in ozone will lead to increases in surface UVB, there is no direct observational
evidence linking ozone depletion to higher incidence of skin cancer in human beings. This is partly because UVA,
Ozone depletion 352

which has also been implicated in some forms of skin cancer, is not absorbed by ozone, and it is nearly impossible to
control statistics for lifestyle changes in the populace.

Increased UV
Ozone, while a minority constituent in the Earth's atmosphere, is responsible for most of the absorption of UVB
radiation. The amount of UVB radiation that penetrates through the ozone layer decreases exponentially with the
slant-path thickness/density of the layer. Correspondingly, a decrease in atmospheric ozone is expected to give rise
to significantly increased levels of UVB near the surface.
Increases in surface UVB due to the ozone hole can be partially inferred by radiative transfer model calculations, but
cannot be calculated from direct measurements because of the lack of reliable historical (pre-ozone-hole) surface UV
data, although more recent surface UV observation measurement programmes exist (e.g. at Lauder, New
Zealand).[24]
Because it is this same UV radiation that creates ozone in the ozone layer from O2 (regular oxygen) in the first place,
a reduction in stratospheric ozone would actually tend to increase photochemical production of ozone at lower levels
(in the troposphere), although the overall observed trends in total column ozone still show a decrease, largely
because ozone produced lower down has a naturally shorter photochemical lifetime, so it is destroyed before the
concentrations could reach a level which would compensate for the ozone reduction higher up.

Biological effects
The main public concern regarding the ozone hole has been the effects of increased surface UV radiation on human
health. So far, ozone depletion in most locations has been typically a few percent and, as noted above, no direct
evidence of health damage is available in most latitudes. Were the high levels of depletion seen in the ozone hole
ever to be common across the globe, the effects could be substantially more dramatic. As the ozone hole over
Antarctica has in some instances grown so large as to reach southern parts of Australia, New Zealand, Chile,
Argentina, and South Africa, environmentalists have been concerned that the increase in surface UV could be
significant.[25]
Ozone depletion will change all of the effects of UVB on human health, both positive and negative.
UVB (the higher energy UV radiation absorbed by ozone) is generally accepted to be a contributory factor to skin
cancer and to produce Vitamin D. In addition, increased surface UV leads to increased tropospheric ozone, which is
a health risk to humans.[26]
1. Basal and Squamous Cell Carcinomas — The most common forms of skin cancer in humans, basal and
squamous cell carcinomas, have been strongly linked to UVB exposure. The mechanism by which UVB induces
these cancers is well understood—absorption of UVB radiation causes the pyrimidine bases in the DNA molecule to
form dimers, resulting in transcription errors when the DNA replicates. These cancers are relatively mild and rarely
fatal, although the treatment of squamous cell carcinoma sometimes requires extensive reconstructive surgery. By
combining epidemiological data with results of animal studies, scientists have estimated that a one percent decrease
in stratospheric ozone would increase the incidence of these cancers by 2%.[27]
2. Malignant Melanoma — Another form of skin cancer, malignant melanoma, is much less common but far more
dangerous, being lethal in about 15–20% of the cases diagnosed. The relationship between malignant melanoma and
ultraviolet exposure is not yet well understood, but it appears that both UVB and UVA are involved. Experiments on
fish suggest that 90 to 95% of malignant melanomas may be due to UVA and visible radiation[28] whereas
experiments on opossums suggest a larger role for UVB.[27] Because of this uncertainty, it is difficult to estimate the
impact of ozone depletion on melanoma incidence. One study showed that a 10% increase in UVB radiation was
associated with a 19% increase in melanomas for men and 16% for women.[29] A study of people in Punta Arenas, at
the southern tip of Chile, showed a 56% increase in melanoma and a 46% increase in nonmelanoma skin cancer over
a period of seven years, along with decreased ozone and increased UVB levels.[30]
Ozone depletion 353

3. Cortical Cataracts — Studies are suggestive of an association between ocular cortical cataracts and UV-B
exposure, using crude approximations of exposure and various cataract assessment techniques. A detailed assessment
of ocular exposure to UV-B was carried out in a study on Chesapeake Bay Watermen, where increases in average
annual ocular exposure were associated with increasing risk of cortical opacity.[31] In this highly exposed group of
predominantly white males, the evidence linking cortical opacities to sunlight exposure was the strongest to date.
However, subsequent data from a population-based study in Beaver Dam, WI suggested the risk may be confined to
men. In the Beaver Dam study, the exposures among women were lower than exposures among men, and no
association was seen.[32] Moreover, there were no data linking sunlight exposure to risk of cataract in African
Americans, although other eye diseases have different prevalences among the different racial groups, and cortical
opacity appears to be higher in African Americans compared with whites.[33] [34]
4. Increased Tropospheric Ozone — Increased surface UV leads to increased tropospheric ozone. Ground-level
ozone is generally recognized to be a health risk, as ozone is toxic due to its strong oxidant properties. At this time,
ozone at ground level is produced mainly by the action of UV radiation on combustion gases from vehicle exhausts.
5. Increased production of Vitamin D
Main article: Vitamin D
Vitamin D is produced in the skin by ultraviolet light. Thus increases in UV-B exposure raise human vitamin D in
those deficient. Recent research (primarily since the Montreal protocol), shows that many humans have less than
optimal vitamin D levels. In particular, the lowest quartile of vitamin D (<17.8 ng/ml), in the US population were
found using information from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to be associated with an
increase in all cause mortality in the general population.[35] While, higher level of Vitamin D are associated with
higher mortality, the body has mechanisms that prevent sunlight from producing too much Vitamin D. .[36]

Effects on non-human animals


A November 2010 report by scientists at the Institute of Zoology in London found that whales off the coast of
California have shown a sharp rise in sun damage, and these scientists "fear that the thinning ozone layer is to
blame"[37]
The study photographed and took skin biopsies from over 150 whales in the Gulf of California and found
"widespread evidence of epidermal damage commonly associated with acute and severe sunburn," having cells
which form when the DNA is damaged by UV radiation. The findings suggest "rising UV levels as a result of ozone
depletion are to blame for the observed skin damage, in the same way that human skin cancer rates have been on the
increase in recent decades."[38]
Ozone depletion 354

Effects on crops
An increase of UV radiation would be expected to affect crops. A number of economically important species of
plants, such as rice, depend on cyanobacteria residing on their roots for the retention of nitrogen. Cyanobacteria are
sensitive to UV light and they would be affected by its increase.[39]

Public policy
The full extent of the damage that CFCs have caused to the ozone layer
is not known and will not be known for decades; however, marked
decreases in column ozone have already been observed (as explained
before).
After a 1976 report by the United States National Academy of Sciences
concluded that credible scientific evidence supported the ozone
depletion hypothesis[40] a few countries, including the United States,
Canada, Sweden, Denmark, and Norway, moved to eliminate the use
of CFCs in aerosol spray cans.[41] At the time this was widely regarded
as a first step towards a more comprehensive regulation policy, but
progress in this direction slowed in subsequent years, due to a
combination of political factors (continued resistance from the
NASA projections of stratospheric ozone
halocarbon industry and a general change in attitude towards concentrations if chlorofluorocarbons had not
environmental regulation during the first two years of the Reagan been banned.
administration) and scientific developments (subsequent National
Academy assessments which indicated that the first estimates of the magnitude of ozone depletion had been overly
large). A critical DuPont manufacturing patent for Freon was set to expire in 1979
Chlorofluorocarbon#Regulation_and_DuPont. The United States banned the use of CFCs in aerosol cans in 1978.[41]
The European Community rejected proposals to ban CFCs in aerosol sprays, and in the U.S., CFCs continued to be
used as refrigerants and for cleaning circuit boards. Worldwide CFC production fell sharply after the U.S. aerosol
ban, but by 1986 had returned nearly to its 1976 level.[41] In 1993, DuPont shut down its CFC facility.[42]

The U.S. Government's attitude began to change again in 1983, when William Ruckelshaus replaced Anne M.
Burford as Administrator of the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Under Ruckelshaus and his
successor, Lee Thomas, the EPA pushed for an international approach to halocarbon regulations. In 1985 20 nations,
including most of the major CFC producers, signed the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer
which established a framework for negotiating international regulations on ozone-depleting substances. That same
year, the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole was announced, causing a revival in public attention to the issue. In
1987, representatives from 43 nations signed the Montreal Protocol. Meanwhile, the halocarbon industry shifted its
position and started supporting a protocol to limit CFC production. The reasons for this were in part explained by
"Dr. Mostafa Tolba, former head of the UN Environment Programme, who was quoted in the 30 June 1990 edition
of The New Scientist, '...the chemical industry supported the Montreal Protocol in 1987 because it set up a
worldwide schedule for phasing out CFCs, which [were] no longer protected by patents. This provided companies
with an equal opportunity to market new, more profitable compounds.'"[43]
At Montreal, the participants agreed to freeze production of CFCs at 1986 levels and to reduce production by 50%
by 1999.[41] After a series of scientific expeditions to the Antarctic produced convincing evidence that the ozone
hole was indeed caused by chlorine and bromine from manmade organohalogens, the Montreal Protocol was
strengthened at a 1990 meeting in London. The participants agreed to phase out CFCs and halons entirely (aside
from a very small amount marked for certain "essential" uses, such as asthma inhalers) by 2000 in non-Article 5
countries and by 2010 in Article 5 (less developed) signatories [44] At a 1992 meeting in Copenhagen, the phase out
Ozone depletion 355

date was moved up to 1996.[44] At the same meeting, methyl bromide (MeBr), a fumigant used primarily in
agricultural production, was added to the list of controlled substances. It should be noted that for all substances
controlled under the Protocol, phaseout schedules were delayed for less developed ('Article 5(1)') countries, and
phaseout in these countries was supported by transfers of expertise, technology, and money from non-Article 5(1)
Parties to the Protocol. Additionally, exemptions from the agreed schedules could be applied for under the Essential
Use Exemption (EUE) process for substances other than methyl bromide and under the Critical Use Exemption
(CUE) process for methyl bromide. See Gareau[45] and DeCanio and Norman[46] for more detail on the exemption
processes.
To some extent, CFCs have been replaced by the less damaging hydro-chloro-fluoro-carbons (HCFCs), although
concerns remain regarding HCFCs also. In some applications, hydro-fluoro-carbons (HFCs) have been used to
replace CFCs. HFCs, which contain no chlorine or bromine, do not contribute at all to ozone depletion although they
are potent greenhouse gases. The best known of these compounds is probably HFC-134a (R-134a), which in the
United States has largely replaced CFC-12 (R-12) in automobile air conditioners. In laboratory analytics (a former
"essential" use) the ozone depleting substances can be replaced with various other solvents.[47]
Ozone Diplomacy, by Richard Benedick (Harvard University Press, 1991) gives a detailed account of the negotiation
process that led to the Montreal Protocol. Pielke and Betsill [48] provide an extensive review of early U.S.
government responses to the emerging science of ozone depletion by CFCs.
More recently, policy experts have advocated for efforts to link ozone protection efforts to climate protection
efforts.[49] [50] Many ODS are also greenhouse gasses, some significantly more powerful agents of radiative forcing
than carbon dioxide over the short and medium term. Policy decisions in one arena affect the costs and effectiveness
of environmental improvements in the other.

Prospects of ozone depletion


Since the adoption and strengthening of the Montreal
Protocol has led to reductions in the emissions of
CFCs, atmospheric concentrations of the most
significant compounds have been declining. These
substances are being gradually removed from the
atmosphere—since peaking in 1994, the Effective
Equivalent Chlorine (EECl) level in the atmosphere
had dropped about 10% by 2008. It is estimated that by
2015, the Antarctic ozone hole will have reduced by 1
million km² out of 25 (Newman et al., 2004); complete
recovery of the Antarctic ozone layer is not expected to
occur until the year 2050 or later. Work has suggested
that a detectable (and statistically significant) recovery
will not occur until around 2024, with ozone levels
recovering to 1980 levels by around 2068.[51] The
decrease in ozone-depleting chemicals has also been
significantly affected by a decrease in
bromine-containing chemicals. The data suggest that
substantial natural sources exist for atmospheric methyl Ozone-depleting gas trends.
[52]
bromide (CH3Br). The phase-out of CFCs means
that nitrous oxide (N2O), which is not covered by the Montreal Protocol, has become the most highly emitted ozone
depleting substance and is expected to remain so throughout the 21st century.[53]
Ozone depletion 356

When the 2004 ozone hole ended in November 2004, daily minimum stratospheric temperatures in the Antarctic
lower stratosphere increased to levels that are too warm for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) about
2 to 3 weeks earlier than in most recent years.[54]
The Arctic winter of 2005 was extremely cold in the stratosphere; PSCs were abundant over many high-latitude
areas until dissipated by a big warming event, which started in the upper stratosphere during February and spread
throughout the Arctic stratosphere in March. The size of the Arctic area of anomalously low total ozone in
2004–2005 was larger than in any year since 1997. The predominance of anomalously low total ozone values in the
Arctic region in the winter of 2004–2005 is attributed to the very low stratospheric temperatures and meteorological
conditions favorable for ozone destruction along with the continued presence of ozone destroying chemicals in the
stratosphere.[55]
A 2005 IPCC summary of ozone issues concluded that observations and model calculations suggest that the global
average amount of ozone depletion has now approximately stabilized. Although considerable variability in ozone is
expected from year to year, including in polar regions where depletion is largest, the ozone layer is expected to begin
to recover in coming decades due to declining ozone-depleting substance concentrations, assuming full compliance
with the Montreal Protocol.[56]
Temperatures during the Arctic winter of 2006 stayed fairly close to the long-term average until late January, with
minimum readings frequently cold enough to produce PSCs. During the last week of January, however, a major
warming event sent temperatures well above normal — much too warm to support PSCs. By the time temperatures
dropped back to near normal in March, the seasonal norm was well above the PSC threshold.[57] Preliminary satellite
instrument-generated ozone maps show seasonal ozone buildup slightly below the long-term means for the Northern
Hemisphere as a whole, although some high ozone events have occurred.[58] During March 2006, the Arctic
stratosphere poleward of 60° North Latitude was free of anomalously low ozone areas except during the three-day
period from 17 March to 19 when the total ozone cover fell below 300 DU over part of the North Atlantic region
from Greenland to Scandinavia.[59]
The area where total column ozone is less than 220 DU (the accepted definition of the boundary of the ozone hole)
was relatively small until around 20 August 2006. Since then the ozone hole area increased rapidly, peaking at 29
million km² 24 September. In October 2006, NASA reported that the year's ozone hole set a new area record with a
daily average of 26 million km² between 7 September and 13 October 2006; total ozone thicknesses fell as low as 85
DU on 8 October. The two factors combined, 2006 sees the worst level of depletion in recorded ozone history. The
depletion is attributed to the temperatures above the Antarctic reaching the lowest recording since comprehensive
records began in 1979.[60] [61]
On October 2008 the Ecuadorian Space Agency published a report called HIPERION, a study of the last 28 years
data from 10 satellites and dozens of ground instruments around the world among them their own, and found that the
UV radiation reaching equatorial latitudes was far greater than expected, climbing in some very populated cities up
to 24 UVI, the WHO UV Index standard considers 11 as an extreme index and a great risk to health. The report
concluded that the ozone depletion around mid latitudes on the planet is already endangering large populations in
this areas. Later, the CONIDA, the Peruvian Space Agency, made its own study, which found almost the same facts
as the Ecuadorian study.
The Antarctic ozone hole is expected to continue for decades. Ozone concentrations in the lower stratosphere over
Antarctica will increase by 5%–10% by 2020 and return to pre-1980 levels by about 2060–2075, 10–25 years later
than predicted in earlier assessments. This is because of revised estimates of atmospheric concentrations of Ozone
Depleting Substances — and a larger predicted future usage in developing countries. Another factor which may
aggravate ozone depletion is the draw-down of nitrogen oxides from above the stratosphere due to changing wind
patterns.[62]
Ozone depletion 357

History of the research


The basic physical and chemical processes that lead to the formation of an ozone layer in the Earth's stratosphere
were discovered by Sydney Chapman in 1930. These are discussed in the article Ozone-oxygen cycle — briefly,
short-wavelength UV radiation splits an oxygen (O2) molecule into two oxygen (O) atoms, which then combine with
other oxygen molecules to form ozone. Ozone is removed when an oxygen atom and an ozone molecule "recombine"
to form two oxygen molecules, i.e. O + O3 → 2O2. In the 1950s, David Bates and Marcel Nicolet presented evidence
that various free radicals, in particular hydroxyl (OH) and nitric oxide (NO), could catalyze this recombination
reaction, reducing the overall amount of ozone. These free radicals were known to be present in the stratosphere, and
so were regarded as part of the natural balance – it was estimated that in their absence, the ozone layer would be
about twice as thick as it currently is.
In 1970 Prof. Paul Crutzen pointed out that emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a stable, long-lived gas produced by
soil bacteria, from the Earth's surface could affect the amount of nitric oxide (NO) in the stratosphere. Crutzen
showed that nitrous oxide lives long enough to reach the stratosphere, where it is converted into NO. Crutzen then
noted that increasing use of fertilizers might have led to an increase in nitrous oxide emissions over the natural
background, which would in turn result in an increase in the amount of NO in the stratosphere. Thus human activity
could have an impact on the stratospheric ozone layer. In the following year, Crutzen and (independently) Harold
Johnston suggested that NO emissions from supersonic aircraft, which fly in the lower stratosphere, could also
deplete the ozone layer.

The Rowland-Molina hypothesis


In 1974 Frank Sherwood Rowland, Chemistry Professor at the University of California at Irvine, and his
postdoctoral associate Mario J. Molina suggested that long-lived organic halogen compounds, such as CFCs, might
behave in a similar fashion as Crutzen had proposed for nitrous oxide. James Lovelock (most popularly known as the
creator of the Gaia hypothesis) had recently discovered, during a cruise in the South Atlantic in 1971, that almost all
of the CFC compounds manufactured since their invention in 1930 were still present in the atmosphere. Molina and
Rowland concluded that, like N2O, the CFCs would reach the stratosphere where they would be dissociated by UV
light, releasing Cl atoms. (A year earlier, Richard Stolarski and Ralph Cicerone at the University of Michigan had
shown that Cl is even more efficient than NO at catalyzing the destruction of ozone. Similar conclusions were
reached by Michael McElroy and Steven Wofsy at Harvard University. Neither group, however, had realized that
CFCs were a potentially large source of stratospheric chlorine — instead, they had been investigating the possible
effects of HCl emissions from the Space Shuttle, which are very much smaller.)
The Rowland-Molina hypothesis was strongly disputed by representatives of the aerosol and halocarbon industries.
The Chair of the Board of DuPont was quoted as saying that ozone depletion theory is "a science fiction tale...a load
of rubbish...utter nonsense".[43] Robert Abplanalp, the President of Precision Valve Corporation (and inventor of the
first practical aerosol spray can valve), wrote to the Chancellor of UC Irvine to complain about Rowland's public
statements (Roan, p 56.) Nevertheless, within three years most of the basic assumptions made by Rowland and
Molina were confirmed by laboratory measurements and by direct observation in the stratosphere. The
concentrations of the source gases (CFCs and related compounds) and the chlorine reservoir species (HCl and
ClONO2) were measured throughout the stratosphere, and demonstrated that CFCs were indeed the major source of
stratospheric chlorine, and that nearly all of the CFCs emitted would eventually reach the stratosphere. Even more
convincing was the measurement, by James G. Anderson and collaborators, of chlorine monoxide (ClO) in the
stratosphere. ClO is produced by the reaction of Cl with ozone — its observation thus demonstrated that Cl radicals
not only were present in the stratosphere but also were actually involved in destroying ozone. McElroy and Wofsy
extended the work of Rowland and Molina by showing that bromine atoms were even more effective catalysts for
ozone loss than chlorine atoms and argued that the brominated organic compounds known as halons, widely used in
fire extinguishers, were a potentially large source of stratospheric bromine. In 1976 the United States National
Ozone depletion 358

Academy of Sciences released a report which concluded that the ozone depletion hypothesis was strongly supported
by the scientific evidence. Scientists calculated that if CFC production continued to increase at the going rate of 10%
per year until 1990 and then remain steady, CFCs would cause a global ozone loss of 5 to 7% by 1995, and a 30 to
50% loss by 2050. In response the United States, Canada and Norway banned the use of CFCs in aerosol spray cans
in 1978. However, subsequent research, summarized by the National Academy in reports issued between 1979 and
1984, appeared to show that the earlier estimates of global ozone loss had been too large.[63]
Crutzen, Molina, and Rowland were awarded the 1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for their work on stratospheric
ozone.

The ozone hole


The discovery of the Antarctic "ozone hole" by British Antarctic Survey scientists Farman, Gardiner and Shanklin
(announced in a paper in Nature in May 1985) came as a shock to the scientific community, because the observed
decline in polar ozone was far larger than anyone had anticipated.[21] Satellite measurements showing massive
depletion of ozone around the south pole were becoming available at the same time. However, these were initially
rejected as unreasonable by data quality control algorithms (they were filtered out as errors since the values were
unexpectedly low); the ozone hole was detected only in satellite data when the raw data was reprocessed following
evidence of ozone depletion in in situ observations. When the software was rerun without the flags, the ozone hole
was seen as far back as 1976.[64]
Susan Solomon, an atmospheric chemist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),
proposed that chemical reactions on polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) in the cold Antarctic stratosphere caused a
massive, though localized and seasonal, increase in the amount of chlorine present in active, ozone-destroying forms.
The polar stratospheric clouds in Antarctica are only formed when there are very low temperatures, as low as -80
degrees C, and early spring conditions. In such conditions the ice crystals of the cloud provide a suitable surface for
conversion of unreactive chlorine compounds into reactive chlorine compounds which can deplete ozone easily.
Moreover the polar vortex formed over Antarctica is very tight and the reaction which occurs on the surface of the
cloud crystals is far different from when it occurs in atmosphere. These conditions have led to ozone hole formation
in Antarctica. This hypothesis was decisively confirmed, first by laboratory measurements and subsequently by
direct measurements, from the ground and from high-altitude airplanes, of very high concentrations of chlorine
monoxide (ClO) in the Antarctic stratosphere.[65]
Alternative hypotheses, which had attributed the ozone hole to variations in solar UV radiation or to changes in
atmospheric circulation patterns, were also tested and shown to be untenable.
Meanwhile, analysis of ozone measurements from the worldwide network of ground-based Dobson
spectrophotometers led an international panel to conclude that the ozone layer was in fact being depleted, at all
latitudes outside of the tropics.[9] These trends were confirmed by satellite measurements. As a consequence, the
major halocarbon producing nations agreed to phase out production of CFCs, halons, and related compounds, a
process that was completed in 1996.
Since 1981 the United Nations Environment Programme, under the auspices of the World Meteorological
Organization, has sponsored a series of technical reports on the Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion, based on
satellite measurements. The 2007 report showed that the hole in the ozone layer was recovering and the smallest it
had been for about a decade.[66] The 2010 report found that "Over the past decade, global ozone and ozone in the
Arctic and Antarctic regions is no longer decreasing but is not yet increasing... the ozone layer outside the Polar
regions is projected to recover to its pre-1980 levels some time before the middle of this century... In contrast, the
springtime ozone hole over the Antarctic is expected to recover much later."[67]
Ozone depletion 359

Arctic ozone hole


On March 15, 2011, a record ozone layer loss was observed, with about half of the ozone present over the Arctic
having been destroyed.[68] [69] [70] [71] The change was attributed to increasingly cold winters in the Arctic
stratosphere at an altitude of approximately 20 km (12.4 miles), a change associated with global warming in a
relationship that is still under investigation.[72] By March 25, the ozone loss had become the largest compared to that
observed in all previous winters with the possibility that it would become an ozone hole.[73] This would require that
the quantities of ozone to fall below 200 Dobson units, from the 250 recorded over central Siberia.[73] It is predicted
that the thinning layer would affect parts of Scandinavia and Eastern Europe on March 30–31.[73]

Tibet ozone hole


As winters that are colder are more affected, at times there is an ozone hole over Tibet. In 2006, a 2.5 million square
kilometer ozone hole was detected over Tibet.[74] Also again in 2011 an ozone hole appeared over mountainous
regions of Tibet, Xinjiang, Qinghai and the Hindu Kush, along with an unprecedented hole over the Arctic, though
the Tibet one is far less intense than the ones over the arctic or antarctic.[75]

Ozone depletion and global warming


There are five areas of linkage between ozone depletion and global warming:
• The same CO2 radiative forcing that produces global warming is
expected to cool the stratosphere.[76] This cooling, in turn, is
expected to produce a relative increase in ozone (O3) depletion in
polar area and the frequency of ozone holes.[77]
• Conversely, ozone depletion represents a radiative forcing of the
climate system. There are two opposing effects: Reduced ozone
causes the stratosphere to absorb less solar radiation, thus cooling
the stratosphere while warming the troposphere; the resulting colder
stratosphere emits less long-wave radiation downward, thus cooling
the troposphere. Overall, the cooling dominates; the IPCC Radiative forcing from various greenhouse gases
concludes that "observed stratospheric O3 losses over the past two and other sources.

decades have caused a negative forcing of the surface-troposphere


system"[10] of about −0.15 ± 0.10 watts per square meter (W/m²).[78]
• One of the strongest predictions of the greenhouse effect is that the stratosphere will cool.[76] Although this
cooling has been observed, it is not trivial to separate the effects of changes in the concentration of greenhouse
gases and ozone depletion since both will lead to cooling. However, this can be done by numerical stratospheric
modeling. Results from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory show that above 20 km (12.4 miles), the greenhouse gases dominate the cooling.[79]
• As noted under 'Public Policy', ozone depleting chemicals are also often greenhouse gases. The increases in
concentrations of these chemicals have produced 0.34 ± 0.03 W/m² of radiative forcing, corresponding to about
14% of the total radiative forcing from increases in the concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases.[78]
• The long term modeling of the process, its measurement, study, design of theories and testing take decades to
document, gain wide acceptance, and ultimately become the dominant paradigm. Several theories about the
destruction of ozone were hypothesized in the 1980s, published in the late 1990s, and are currently being proven.
Dr Drew Schindell, and Dr Paul Newman, NASA Goddard, proposed a theory in the late 1990s, using a SGI
Origin 2000 supercomputer, that modeled ozone destruction, accounted for 78% of the ozone destroyed. Further
refinement of that model accounted for 89% of the ozone destroyed, but pushed back the estimated recovery of
the ozone hole from 75 years to 150 years. (An important part of that model is the lack of stratospheric flight due
to depletion of fossil fuels.)
Ozone depletion 360

Misconceptions about ozone depletion


CFCs are "too heavy" to reach the stratosphere
It is commonly believed that CFC molecules are heavier than air (nitrogen or oxygen), so that the CFC molecules
cannot reach the stratosphere in significant amount.[80] But atmospheric gases are not sorted by weight; the forces of
wind can fully mix the gases in the atmosphere. Despite the fact that CFCs are heavier than air and with a long
lifetime, they are evenly distributed throughout the turbosphere and reach the upper atmosphere.[81]
Man-made chlorine is insignificant compared to natural sources
Another misconception is that "it is generally
accepted that natural sources of tropospheric
chlorine are four to five times larger than
man-made one". While strictly true, tropospheric
chlorine is irrelevant; it is stratospheric chlorine
that affects ozone depletion. Chlorine from
ocean spray is soluble and thus is washed by
rainfall before it reaches the stratosphere. CFCs,
in contrast, are insoluble and long-lived,
allowing them to reach the stratosphere. In the
lower atmosphere, there is much more chlorine
from CFCs and related haloalkanes than there is
in HCl from salt spray, and in the stratosphere
halocarbons are dominant .[82] Only methyl
chloride which is one of these halocarbons has a
mainly natural source ,[83] and it is responsible
for about 20 percent of the chlorine in the
stratosphere; the remaining 80% comes from
man made sources.

Very violent volcanic eruptions can inject HCl into the stratosphere, but researchers[84] have shown that the
contribution is not significant compared to that from CFCs. A similar erroneous assertion is that soluble halogen
compounds from the volcanic plume of Mount Erebus on Ross Island, Antarctica are a major contributor to the
Antarctic ozone hole.[84]
An ozone hole was first observed in 1956
G.M.B. Dobson (Exploring the Atmosphere, 2nd Edition, Oxford, 1968) mentioned that when springtime ozone
levels over Halley Bay were first measured in 1956, he was surprised to find that they were ~320 DU, about 150 DU
below spring levels, ~450 DU, in the Arctic. These, however, were at this time the known normal climatological
values because no other Antarctic ozone data were available. What Dobson describes is essentially the baseline from
which the ozone hole is measured: actual ozone hole values are in the 150–100 DU range.
The discrepancy between the Arctic and Antarctic noted by Dobson was primarily a matter of timing: during the
Arctic spring ozone levels rose smoothly, peaking in April, whereas in the Antarctic they stayed approximately
constant during early spring, rising abruptly in November when the polar vortex broke down.
The behavior seen in the Antarctic ozone hole is completely different. Instead of staying constant, early springtime
ozone levels suddenly drop from their already low winter values, by as much as 50%, and normal values are not
reached again until December.[85]
The ozone hole should be above the sources of CFCs
Ozone depletion 361

Some people thought that the ozone hole should be above the sources of CFCs. However, CFCs are well mixed
globally in the troposphere and the stratosphere. The reason for occurrence of the ozone hole above Antarctica is not
because there are more CFCs concentrated but because the low temperatures help form polar stratospheric clouds.[86]
In fact, there are findings of significant and localized "ozone holes" above other parts of the earth.[87]
The "ozone hole" is a hole in the ozone layer
There is a common misconception that the “ozone hole” is really a hole in the ozone layer. When the "ozone hole"
occurs, the ozone in the lower stratosphere is destroyed. The upper stratosphere is less affected, so that the amount of
ozone over the continent decreases by 50 percent or even more. The ozone does not disappear through the layer, nor
is there a uniform 'thinning' of the ozone layer. It is a "hole" which is a depression, not in the sense of "a hole in the
windshield."

ODS requirements in the marine industry


IMO has amended MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 12 regarding ozone depleting substances.
As from July 1, 2010, all vessels where MARPOL Annex VI is applicable should have a list of equipment using
ozone depleting substances. The list should include name of ODS, type and location of equipment, quantity in kg and
date. All changes since that date should be recorded in a ODS Record book on board recording all intended or
unintended releases to the atmosphere. Furthermore, new ODS supply or landing to shore facilities should be
recorded as well.

World Ozone Day


In 1994, the United Nations General Assembly voted to designate September 16 as "World Ozone Day", to
commemorate the signing of the Montreal Protocol on that date in 1987.

References
[1] "Part III. The Science of the Ozone Hole" (http:/ / www. atm. ch. cam. ac. uk/ tour/ part3. html). . Retrieved 2007-03-05.
[2] Andino, Jean M. (21 October 1999). "Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are heavier than air, so how do scientists suppose that these chemicals
reach the altitude of the ozone layer to adversely affect it?" (http:/ / www. sciam. com/ article. cfm?id=chlorofluorocarbons-cfcs). Sci. Am.. .
[3] Dobson, R. (2005). "Ozone depletion will bring big rise in number of cataracts". BMJ 331 (7528): 1292–1295.
doi:10.1136/bmj.331.7528.1292-d. PMC 1298892. PMID 16322012.
[4] Newman, Paul A.. "Chapter 5: Stratospheric Photochemistry Section 4.2.8 ClX catalytic reactions" (http:/ / www. ccpo. odu. edu/ SEES/
ozone/ class/ Chap_5/ index. htm). In Todaro, Richard M.. Stratospheric ozone: an electronic textbook (http:/ / www. ccpo. odu. edu/ SEES/
ozone/ oz_class. htm). NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Branch. .
[5] "Stratospheric Ozone Depletion by Chlorofluorocarbons (Nobel Lecture)—Encyclopedia of Earth" (http:/ / www. eoearth. org/ article/
Stratospheric_Ozone_Depletion_by_Chlorofluorocarbons_(Nobel_Lecture)). Eoearth.org. . Retrieved 2011-03-28.
[6] "The Ozone Hole Tour: Part II. Recent Ozone Depletion" (http:/ / www. atm. ch. cam. ac. uk/ tour/ part2. html). Atm.ch.cam.ac.uk. .
Retrieved 2011-03-28.
[7] PWMU. "World Meteorological Organization (WMO)" (http:/ / www. wmo. ch/ web/ arep/ reports/ o3_assess_rep_2002_front_page. html).
Wmo.ch. . Retrieved 2011-03-28.
[8] U.S. EPA: Ozone Depletion (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ ozone/ science/ hole/ whyant. html#psc)
[9] "Myth: Ozone Depletion Occurs Only In Antarctica | Science | Ozone Layer Protection | US EPA" (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ ozone/ science/
myths/ glob_dep. html). Epa.gov. 2006-06-28. . Retrieved 2011-03-28.
[10] "Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 223. htm).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Work Group I. 2001. pp. Chapter 6.4 Stratospheric Ozone. .
[11] (http:/ / www. giss. nasa. gov/ edu/ gwdebate/ )
[12] http:/ / www. esrl. noaa. gov/ csd/ assessments/ 1998/ preface. html
[13] Newman, P.A., Daniel, J.S., Waugh, D.W., Nash, E.R. (2007). "A new formulation of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC)"
(http:/ / www. atmos-chem-phys. net/ 7/ 4537/ 2007/ acp-7-4537-2007. html). Atmos. Chem. Phys. 7: 4537–52. doi:10.5194/acp-7-4537-2007.
.
[14] "chlorofluorocarbons" (http:/ / www. encyclopedia. com/ doc/ 1E1-chlorofl. html). Encyclopedia.com. . Retrieved 2011-03-28.
Ozone depletion 362

[15] Nash, Eric; Newman, Paul (September 19, 2001). "NASA Confirms Arctic Ozone Depletion Trigger" (http:/ / earthobservatory. nasa. gov/
IOTD/ view. php?id=1771). Image of the Day. NASA. . Retrieved April 16, 2011.
[16] Sparling, Brien (June 26, 2001). "Antarctic Ozone Hole" (http:/ / www. nas. nasa. gov/ About/ Education/ Ozone/ antarctic. html). NASA
Advanced Supercomputing Department. . Retrieved April 16, 2011.
[17] Parson, Robert (December 16, 1997). "Antarctic ozone-depletion FAQ, section 7" (http:/ / www. faqs. org/ faqs/ ozone-depletion/ antarctic).
Faqs.org. . Retrieved April 16, 2011.
[18] Toon, Owen B.; Turco, Richard P. (June 1991). "Polar Stratospheric Clouds and Ozone Depletion" (http:/ / www. atmos. washington. edu/
~davidc/ ATMS211/ articles_optional/ Toon_Turco91_ozone. pdf). Scientific American 264 (6): 68–74. . Retrieved April 16, 2011.
[19] "Ozone Facts: What is the Ozone Hole?" (http:/ / ozonewatch. gsfc. nasa. gov/ facts/ hole. html). Ozone Hole Watch. NASA. November 18,
2009. . Retrieved April 16, 2011.
[20] Rowland, Frank Sherwood (29 May 2006). "Stratospheric Ozone Depletion" (http:/ / rstb. royalsocietypublishing. org/ content/ 361/ 1469/
769. full). Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 361 (1469): 769–790. doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1783. PMC 1609402. PMID 16627294. . " 4. Free radical
reactions for ozone removal: Reaction 4.1 (http:/ / rstb. royalsocietypublishing. org/ content/ 361/ 1469/ 769. full#disp-formula-5)".
[21] Stephen C. Zehr (November 1994). "Accounting for the Ozone Hole: Scientific Representations of an Anomaly and Prior Incorrect Claims
in Public Settings" (http:/ / www. jstor. org/ pss/ 4121521). The Sociological Quarterly 35 (4): 603–19.
doi:10.1111/j.1533-8525.1994.tb00419.x. .
[22] "Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ publications/ other/ ipcc_tar/ ?src=/ climate/
ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 351. htm). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Work Group I. 2001. pp. Chapter 9.3.2 Patterns of Future Climate
Change. .
[23] Muir, Patricia (March 6, 2008). "Stratospheric Ozone Depletion" (http:/ / people. oregonstate. edu/ ~muirp/ stratozo. htm). Oregon State
University. . Retrieved April 16, 2011.
[24] "UV & Ozone" (http:/ / www. niwa. co. nz/ services/ uvozone). National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, NZ. .
[25] "Ozone Hole Over City for First Time - ABC News" (http:/ / abcnews. go. com/ Technology/ story?id=119899& page=1). Abcnews.go.com.
. Retrieved 2011-03-28.
[26] "Bad Nearby | Ozone - Good Up High Bad Nearby | Air Quality Planning & Standards | Air & Radiation | US EPA" (http:/ / www. epa. gov/
oar/ oaqps/ gooduphigh/ bad. html#6). Epa.gov. 2006-06-28. . Retrieved 2011-03-28.
[27] Frank R. de Gruijl (Summer 1995). "Impacts of a Projected Depletion of the Ozone Layer" (http:/ / www. gcrio. org/ CONSEQUENCES/
summer95/ impacts. html). Consequences 1 (2). .
[28] Setlow RB, Grist E, Thompson K, Woodhead AD (July 1993). "Wavelengths effective in induction of malignant melanoma". Proc. Natl.
Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 90 (14): 6666–70. doi:10.1073/pnas.90.14.6666. PMC 46993. PMID 8341684.
[29] Fears TR, Bird CC, Guerry D, et al. (July 2002). "Average midrange ultraviolet radiation flux and time outdoors predict melanoma risk"
(http:/ / cancerres. aacrjournals. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=12124332). Cancer Res. 62 (14): 3992–6. PMID 12124332. .
[30] Abarca JF, Casiccia CC (December 2002). "Skin cancer and ultraviolet-B radiation under the Antarctic ozone hole: southern Chile,
1987–2000" (http:/ / www. blackwell-synergy. com/ links/ doi/ 10. 1034/ j. 1600-0781. 2002. 02782. x/ full/ ). Photodermatol Photoimmunol
Photomed 18 (6): 294–302. doi:10.1034/j.1600-0781.2002.02782.x. PMID 12535025. .
[31] West SK, Duncan DD, Muñoz B, et al. (August 1998). "Sunlight exposure and risk of lens opacities in a population-based study: the
Salisbury Eye Evaluation project" (http:/ / jama. ama-assn. org/ cgi/ content/ full/ 280/ 8/ 714). JAMA 280 (8): 714–8.
doi:10.1001/jama.280.8.714. PMID 9728643. .
[32] Cruickshanks KJ, Klein BE, Klein R (December 1992). "Ultraviolet light exposure and lens opacities: the Beaver Dam Eye Study" (http:/ /
www. ajph. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=1456342). Am J Public Health 82 (12): 1658–62. doi:10.2105/AJPH.82.12.1658.
PMC 1694542. PMID 1456342. .
[33] West SK, Muñoz B, Schein OD, Duncan DD, Rubin GS (December 1998). "Racial differences in lens opacities: the Salisbury Eye
Evaluation (SEE) project" (http:/ / aje. oxfordjournals. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=9850124). Am. J. Epidemiol. 148 (11):
1033–9. PMID 9850124. .
[34] Leske MC, Connell AM, Wu SY, Hyman L, Schachat A (January 1997). "Prevalence of lens opacities in the Barbados Eye Study" (http:/ /
archopht. ama-assn. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=9006434). Arch. Ophthalmol. 115 (1): 105–11. PMID 9006434. .
[35] Melamed ML, Michos ED, Post W, Astor B (August 2008). "25-hydroxyvitamin D levels and the risk of mortality in the general population"
(http:/ / archinte. ama-assn. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=18695076). Arch. Intern. Med. 168 (15): 1629–37.
doi:10.1001/archinte.168.15.1629. PMC 2677029. PMID 18695076. .
[36] Vieth R (May 1999). "Vitamin D supplementation, 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations, and safety" (http:/ / www. ajcn. org/ cgi/
pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=10232622). Am. J. Clin. Nutr. 69 (5): 842–56. PMID 10232622. .
[37] "Sunburned whales: Troubling environment news of the week" (http:/ / voices. washingtonpost. com/ blog-post/ 2010/ 11/
sunburned_whales_bad_environme. html). Voices.washingtonpost.com. 2010-11-11. . Retrieved 2011-03-28.
[38] Abbie Thomas (2010-11-10). "Whales showing more sun damage" (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ science/ articles/ 2010/ 11/ 10/ 3062051.
htm). 23;-102: Abc.net.au. . Retrieved 2011-03-28.
[39] R. P. Sinha; S. C. Singh and D.-P. Häder (1999). "Photoecophysiology of cyanobacteria". Journal of Photochemistry and Photobiology 3:
91–101.
[40] National Academy of Sciences (1976). Halocarbons, effects on stratospheric ozone (http:/ / books. google. com/ ?id=a2YrAAAAYAAJ&
dq=Halocarbons:+ Effects+ on+ Stratospheric+ Ozone). Washington, DC. .
Ozone depletion 363

[41] Morrisette, Peter M. (1989). "The Evolution of Policy Responses to Stratospheric Ozone Depletion" (http:/ / www. ciesin. org/ docs/
003-006/ 003-006. html). Natural Resources Journal 29: 793–820. . Retrieved 2010-04-20.
[42] http:/ / www. ghgregistries. ca/ registry/ out/ C650-DUPONT-PLN. PDF
[43] "Du Pont: A case study in the 3d corporate strategy" (http:/ / archive. greenpeace. org/ ozone/ greenfreeze/ moral97/ 6dupont. html).
Archive.greenpeace.org. . Retrieved 2011-03-28.
[44] "Amendments to the Montreal Protocol | Ozone Layer Protection | US EPA" (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ ozone/ intpol/ history. html). Epa.gov.
2006-06-28. . Retrieved 2011-03-28.
[45] Gareau BJ (2010). "A critical review of the successful CFC phase-out versus the delayed methyl bromide phase-out in the Montreal
Protocol". International Environmental Agreements-Politics Law and Economics 10 (3): 209–231. doi:10.1007/s10784-010-9120-z.
[46] DeCanio SJ, Norman CS (July 2005). "Economics of the 'Critical use' of Methyl Bromide under the Montreal Protocol". Contemporary
Economic Policy 23 (3): 376–393. doi:10.1093/cep/byi028.
[47] "Use of Ozone Depleting Substances in Laboratories. TemaNord 516/2003" (http:/ / www. norden. org/ pub/ ebook/ 2003-516. pdf).
Norden.org. 2003-01-01. . Retrieved 2011-03-28.
[48] http:/ / sciencepolicy. colorado. edu/ admin/ publication_files/ 1997. 11. pdf
[49] Mario Molina, Durwood Zaelke, K. Madhava Sarma, Stephen O. Andersen, Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Donald Kaniaru (2009). "Reducing
abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions". Proc. Natl. Acad.
Sci. U.S.A. 106 (49): 20616–21. doi:10.1073/pnas.0902568106. PMC 2791591. PMID 19822751.
[50] Norman CS, DeCanio SJ, Fan L (May 2008). "The Montreal Protocol at 20: Ongoing opportunities for integration with climate protection".
Global Environmental Change 18 (2): 330–340. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.03.003.
[51] Newman, P. A., Nash, E. R., Kawa, S. R., Montzka, S. A. and Schauffler, S. M (2006). "When will the Antarctic ozone hole recover?".
Geophysical Research Letters 33: L12814. Bibcode 2006GeoRL..3312814N. doi:10.1029/2005GL025232.
[52] PWMU. "World Meteorological Organization (WMO)" (http:/ / www. wmo. ch/ web/ arep/ reports/ ozone_2002/ 06_chapter1. pdf).
Wmo.ch. . Retrieved 2011-04-06.
[53] "NOAA Study Shows Nitrous Oxide Now Top Ozone-Depleting Emission" (http:/ / www. noaanews. noaa. gov/ stories2009/
20090827_ozone. html). Noaanews.noaa.gov. 2009-08-27. . Retrieved 2011-04-06.
[54] PWMU. "World Meteorological Organization (WMO)" (http:/ / www. wmo. ch/ web/ arep/ 04/ bulletin_7_2004. pdf). Wmo.ch. . Retrieved
2011-04-06.
[55] "CPC—Stratosphere: Winter Bulletins" (http:/ / www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/ products/ stratosphere/ winter_bulletins/ nh_04-05/ index.
html). Cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. 2005-05-18. . Retrieved 2011-04-06.
[56] "Summary for Policymakers" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ special-reports/ sroc/ sroc_spm. pdf). IPCC/TEAP special report on safeguarding
the ozone layer and the global climate system: issues related to hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports_safeguarding_the_ozone_layer. htm). Cambridge: Published for the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change [by] Cambridge University Press. 2005. ISBN 0-521-86336-8. .
[57] "Available Annual NCEP data" (http:/ / code916. gsfc. nasa. gov/ Data_services/ met/ ann_data. html). Code916.gsfc.nasa.gov. . Retrieved
2011-04-06.
[58] "Select ozone maps, individual sources" (http:/ / es-ee. tor. ec. gc. ca/ cgi-bin/ dailyMaps). Es-ee.tor.ec.gc.ca. 1998-06-01. . Retrieved
2011-04-06.
[59] "Index of /products/stratosphere/sbuv2to/archive/nh" (http:/ / www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/ products/ stratosphere/ sbuv2to/ archive/ nh).
Cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. . Retrieved 2011-04-06.
[60] "Ozone Hole Watch" (http:/ / ozonewatch. gsfc. nasa. gov). Ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov. . Retrieved 2011-04-06.
[61] "Ozone layer hits new depletion record" (http:/ / www. theregister. co. uk/ 2006/ 10/ 03/ ozone_depletion). The Register. 2006-10-03. .
[62] CNW Group | CANADIAN SPACE AGENCY | Canada's SCISAT satellite explains 2006 ozone-layer depletion (http:/ / www. newswire.
ca/ en/ releases/ archive/ October2006/ 06/ c5891. html)
[63] Causes and Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Reduction: An Update (http:/ / www. nap. edu/ openbook. php?isbn=0309032482). National
Academy of Sciences. (1982 and 1983). .
[64] Ozone Depletion, History and politics (http:/ / www. nas. nasa. gov/ About/ Education/ Ozone/ history. html) accessed 18 November 2007.
[65] P. M. Solomon, B. Connor, R. L. de Zafra, A. Parrish, J. Barrett, M. Jaramillo (July 1987). "High concentrations of chlorine monoxide at
low altitudes in the Antarctic spring stratosphere: secular variation" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v328/ n6129/ abs/ 328411a0.
html). Nature 328 (6129): 411–3. doi:10.1038/328411a0. .
[66] "Ozone hole closing up, research shows" (http:/ / abc. net. au/ news/ stories/ 2007/ 11/ 16/ 2092527. htm). ABC News (Australian
Broadcasting Commission). 2007-11-16. .
[67] "New report highlights two-way link between ozone layer and climate change" (http:/ / www. unep. org/ Documents. Multilingual/ Default.
asp?DocumentID=647& ArticleID=6751& l=en& t=long). UNEP News Center. 2010-11-16. .
[68] Arctic on the verge of record ozone loss - Arctic-wide measurements verify rapid depletion in recent days (http:/ / www. awi. de/ en/ news/
press_releases/ detail/ item/ arctic_on_the_verge_of_record_ozone_loss/ ?tx_list_pi1& #91;mode& #93;=6&
cHash=70ef96e9f3829953d209a68efb70e5c2)
[69] Christine Dell'Amore (2011-03-22). "First North Pole Ozone Hole Forming?" (http:/ / news. nationalgeographic. com/ news/ 2011/ 03/
110321-ozone-layer-hole-arctic-north-pole-science-environment-uv-sunscreen/ ). News.nationalgeographic.com. . Retrieved 2011-04-06.
Ozone depletion 364

[70] "Arctic On Verge Of Record Ozone Loss" (http:/ / www. eurasiareview. com/ arctic-on-verge-of-record-ozone-loss-25032011/ ). Eurasia
Review - Eurasiareview.com. 2011-03-25. . Retrieved 2011-04-06.
[71] "The Arctic Ozone Sieve: More Global Weirding? : Dean's Corner" (http:/ / scienceblogs. com/ deanscorner/ 2011/ 03/
the_arctic_ozone_sieve_more_gl. php). Scienceblogs.com. 2011-03-25. . Retrieved 2011-04-06.
[72] "Arctic on the verge of record ozone loss" (http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com/ releases/ 2011/ 03/ 110314100835. htm). Sciencedaily.com.
2011-03-14. . Retrieved 2011-04-06.
[73] "Developing ozone hole approaches Europe" (http:/ / www. euractiv. com/ en/ climate-environment/
developing-ozone-hole-approaches-europe-news-503504). EurActiv. . Retrieved 2011-04-06.
[74] "Earth news: Chinese Scientists Find New Ozone Hole Over Tibet" (http:/ / elainemeinelsupkis. typepad. com/ earth_news/ 2006/ 05/
chinese_scienti. html). Elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com. 2006-05-04. . Retrieved 2011-04-06.
[75] Schiermeier, Quirin (1999-02-22). "The Great Beyond: Arctic ozone hole causes concern" (http:/ / blogs. nature. com/ news/
thegreatbeyond/ 2011/ 04/ arctic_ozone_hole_causes_conce. html). Blogs.nature.com. . Retrieved 2011-04-06.
[76] Hegerl, Gabriele C.; et al.. "Understanding and Attributing Climate Change" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/
ar4-wg1-chapter9. pdf) (PDF). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. p. 675. . Retrieved 2008-02-01.
[77] http:/ / earthwatch. unep. net/ emergingissues/ atmosphere/ ozonedepletion. php
[78] (PDF) IPCC/TEAP Special Report on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System: Issues Related to Hydrofluorocarbons
and Perfluorocarbons (summary for policy makers) (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070221055911/ http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ press/ SPM.
pdf). International Panel on Climate Change and Technology and Economic Assessment Panel. 2005. Archived from the original (http:/ /
www. ipcc. ch/ press/ SPM. pdf) on February 21, 2007. . Retrieved 2007-03-04.
[79] "The Relative Roles of Ozone and Other Greenhouse Gases in Climate Change in the Stratosphere" (http:/ / www. gfdl. noaa. gov/ aboutus/
milestones/ ozone. html). Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. 2007-02-29. . Retrieved 2007-03-04.
[80] Amy Silverman (1995-05-04). "FREON EASY" (http:/ / www. phoenixnewtimes. com/ 1995-05-04/ news/ freon-easy/ full). Phoenix News.
. Retrieved 2011-04-06.
[81] FAQ, part I (http:/ / www. faqs. org/ faqs/ ozone-depletion/ intro/ ), section 1.3.
[82] ozone-depletion FAQ, Part II (http:/ / www. faqs. org/ faqs/ ozone-depletion/ stratcl), section 4.3
[83] Y. Yokouchi; Y. Noijiri; L. A. Barrie; D. Toom-Sauntry; T. Machida; Y. Inuzuka; H. Akimoto; Li, HJ et al. (2000-01-20). "A strong source
of methyl chloride to the atmosphere from tropical coastal land" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v403/ n6767/ full/ 403295a0.
html). Nature 403 (6767): 295–8. doi:10.1038/35002049. PMID 10659845. .
[84] ozone-depletion FAQ, Part II (http:/ / www. faqs. org/ faqs/ ozone-depletion/ stratcl), section 4.4
[85] ozone-depletion FAQ, Part III (http:/ / www. faqs. org/ faqs/ ozone-depletion/ antarctic), section 6
[86] "ozone-depletion FAQ, Antarctic" (http:/ / www. faqs. org/ faqs/ ozone-depletion/ antarctic). Faqs.org. . Retrieved 2011-04-06.
[87] "Ozone hole: Definition" (http:/ / www. answers. com/ topic/ ozone-depletion). Answers.com. . Retrieved 2011-04-06.

Nontechnical books
• Dray, Philip; Cagin, Seth (1993). Between earth and sky: how CFCs changed our world and endangered the
ozone layer. New York: Pantheon Books. ISBN 0-679-42052-5.
• Roan, Sharon (1989). Ozone crisis: The 15-year evolution of a sudden global emergency. New York: Wiley.
ISBN 0-471-52823-4.
• Schiff, Harold; Dotto, Lydia; (1978). The Ozone war. Garden City, N.Y: Doubleday. ISBN 0-385-12927-0.

Books on public policy issues


• Benedick, Richard Elliot (1991). Ozone diplomacy: New directions in safeguarding the planet. Cambridge:
Harvard University Press. ISBN 0-674-65001-8. (Ambassador Benedick was the Chief U.S. Negotiator at the
meetings that resulted in the Montreal Protocol.)
• Litfin, Karen (1994). Ozone discourses: Science and politics in global environmental cooperation. New York:
Columbia University Press. ISBN 0-231-08137-5.
Ozone depletion 365

Research articles
• Newman, P. A., Kawa, S. R. and Nash, E. R. (2004). "On the size of the Antarctic ozone hole?". Geophysical
Research Letters 31: L12814. Bibcode 2004GeoRL..3121104N. doi:10.1029/2004GL020596.
• E. C. Weatherhead, S. B. Andersen (2006). "The search for signs of recovery of the ozone layer". Nature 441
(7089): 39–45. doi:10.1038/nature04746. PMID 16672963.

External links
• Ozone layer (http://www.dmoz.org/Science/Environment/Ozone_Layer/) at the Open Directory Project
• UN Chronicle Unlayering of the Ozone: An Earth Sans Sunscreen (http://www.un.org/wcm/content/site/
chronicle/cache/bypass/lang/en/home/archive/Issues2009/pid/
5087;jsessionid=9B6FA6D357CDB4E92CAE6B2B784D33BF?ctnscroll_articleContainerList=1_0&
ctnlistpagination_articleContainerList=true)
• NOAA/ESRL Ozone Depletion (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/about/ozone.html)
• NOAA Ozone Depleting Gas Index (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/odgi/)
• The Ozone Hole (http://www.theozonehole.com)

Ocean acidification
Ocean acidification is the name given to
the ongoing decrease in the pH of the
Earth's oceans, caused by their uptake of
anthropogenic carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere.[1] Between 1751 and 1994
surface ocean pH is estimated to have
decreased from approximately 8.25 to
8.14,[2] representing an increase of
approaching 30% in "acidity" (H+ ion
concentration) in the world's oceans.[3] [4] [5]

Change in sea surface pH caused by anthropogenic CO2 between the 1700s and the
1990s
Ocean acidification 366

Carbon cycle
The carbon cycle describes the fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) between
the oceans, terrestrial biosphere, lithosphere,[6] and the atmosphere.
Human activities such as land use changes, the combustion of fossil
fuels, and the production of cement have led to a new flux of CO2 into
the atmosphere. Some of this has remained there; some has been taken
up by terrestrial plants,[7] and some has been absorbed by the oceans.[8]

The carbon cycle comes in two forms: the organic carbon cycle and the
inorganic carbon cycle. The inorganic carbon cycle is particularly
The CO2 cycle between the atmosphere and the
relevant when discussing ocean acidification for it includes the many
ocean
forms of dissolved CO2 present in the Earth's oceans.[9]

When CO2 dissolves, it reacts with water to form a balance of ionic and non-ionic chemical species: dissolved free
carbon dioxide (CO2(aq)), carbonic acid (H2CO3), bicarbonate (HCO) and carbonate (CO). The ratio of these species
depends on factors such as seawater temperature and alkalinity (see the article on the ocean's solubility pump for
more detail).

Acidification
Dissolving CO2 in seawater increases the hydrogen ion (H+)
concentration in the ocean, and thus decreases ocean pH. Caldeira and
Wickett (2003)[1] placed the rate and magnitude of modern ocean
acidification changes in the context of probable historical changes
during the last 300 million years.

Carbonate system of seawater

Average surface ocean pH[10]


Time pH pH change Source H+ concentration
change
relative to pre-industrial

Pre-industrial (18th century) 8.179 0.000 [11] 0%


analysed field

Recent past (1990s) 8.104 -0.075 [11] + 18.9%


field

Present levels ~8.069 -0.11 [3] [4] [12] [13] + 28.8%


field

2050 (2×CO2 = 560 ppm) 7.949 -0.230 [10] + 69.8%


model

[14] 7.824 -0.355 [10] + 126.5%


2100 (IS92a) model

Since the industrial revolution began, it is estimated that surface ocean pH has dropped by slightly more than 0.1
units on the logarithmic scale of pH, representing an approximately 29% increase in H+, and it is estimated that it
will drop by a further 0.3 to 0.5 pH units (an additional doubling to tripling of today's post-industrial acid
concentrations) by 2100 as the oceans absorb more anthropogenic CO2.[1] [10] [15] These changes are predicted to
Ocean acidification 367

continue rapidly as the oceans take up more anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere, the degree of change to ocean
chemistry, for example ocean pH, will depend on the mitigation and emissions pathways society takes.[16] Note that,
although the ocean is acidifying, its pH is still greater than 7 (that of neutral water), so the ocean could also be
described as becoming less basic.
Although the largest changes are expected in the future,[10] a report from NOAA scientists found large quantities of
water undersaturated in aragonite are already upwelling close to the Pacific continental shelf area of North
America.[17] Continental shelves play an important role in marine ecosystems since most marine organisms live or
are spawned there, and though the study only dealt with the area from Vancouver to northern California, the authors
suggest that other shelf areas may be experiencing similar effects.[17]

Rate of Acidification
Similarly, one of the first detailed datasets examining temporal variations in pH at a temperate coastal location found
that acidification was occurring at a rate much higher than that previously predicted, with consequences for
near-shore benthic ecosystems.[18] [19]
A December 2009 National Geographic report quoted Thomas Lovejoy, former chief biodiversity advisor to the
World Bank on recent research suggesting "the acidity of the oceans will more than double in the next 40 years. This
rate is 100 times faster than any changes in ocean acidity in the last 20 million years, making it unlikely that marine
life can somehow adapt to the changes."[20]
According to research, from the University of Bristol, published in the journal Nature Geoscience in February 2010,
compared current rates of ocean acidification with the greenhouse event at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary, about 55
million years ago when surface ocean temperatures rose by 5-6 degrees Celsius, during which time no catastrophe is
seen in surface ecosystems, yet bottom-dwelling organisms in the deep ocean experienced a major extinction. They
concluded that the current acidification is on path to reach levels higher than any seen in the last 65 million years.[21]
The study also found that the current rate of acidification is "ten times the rate that preceded the mass extinction 55
million years ago," and Ridgwell commented that the present rate "is an almost unprecedented geological event."[22]
A National Research Council study released in April 2010 likewise concluded that "the level of acid in the oceans is
increasing at an unprecedented rate."[23]
A review by climate scientists at the RealClimate blog, of a 2005 report by the Royal Society of the UK similarly
highlighted the centrality of the rates of change in the present anthropogenic acidification process, writing:[24]
"The natural pH of the ocean is determined by a need to balance the deposition and burial of CaCO3 on
the sea floor against the influx of Ca2+ and CO into the ocean from dissolving rocks on land, called
weathering. These processes stabilize the pH of the ocean, by a mechanism called CaCO3
compensation...The point of bringing it up again is to note that if the CO2 concentration of the
atmosphere changes more slowly than this, as it always has throughout the Vostok record, the pH of the
ocean will be relatively unaffected because CaCO3 compensation can keep up. The [present] fossil fuel
acidification is much faster than natural changes, and so the acid spike will be more intense than the
earth has seen in at least 800,000 years."
A July 2010 article in Scientific American quoted marine geologist William Howard of the Antarctic Climate and
Ecosystems Cooperative Research Center in Hobart, Tasmania stating that "the current rate of ocean acidification is
about a hundred times faster than the most rapid events" in the geologic past.[25] Research at the University of South
Florida has shown that in the 15-year period 1995-2010 alone, acidity has increased 6 percent in the upper 100
meters of the Pacific Ocean from Hawaii to Alaska.[26]
Ocean acidification 368

Calcification
Changes in ocean chemistry can have extensive direct and indirect effects on organisms and their habitats. One of the
most important repercussions of increasing ocean acidity relates to the production of shells and plates out of calcium
carbonate (CaCO3).[15] This process is called calcification and is important to the biology and survival of a wide
range of marine organisms. Calcification involves the precipitation of dissolved ions into solid CaCO3 structures,
such as coccoliths. After they are formed, such structures are vulnerable to dissolution unless the surrounding
seawater contains saturating concentrations of carbonate ions. The saturation state of seawater for a mineral (known
as Ω) is a measure of the thermodynamic potential for the mineral to form or to dissolve, and is described by the
following equation:

Here Ω is the product of the concentrations (or activities) of the reacting ions that form the mineral (Ca2+ and CO),
divided by the product of the concentrations of those ions when the mineral is at equilibrium (Ksp), that is, when the
mineral is neither forming nor dissolving.[27] In seawater, a natural horizontal boundary is formed as a result of
temperature, pressure, and depth, and is known as the saturation horizon, or lysocline.[15] Above this saturation
horizon, Ω has a value greater than 1, and CaCO3 does not readily dissolve. Most calcifying organisms live in such
waters.[15] Below this depth, Ω has a value less than 1, and CaCO3 will dissolve. However, if its production rate is
high enough to offset dissolution, CaCO3 can still occur where Ω is less than 1. The carbonate compensation depth
occurs at the depth in the ocean where production is exceeded by dissolution.[28]
Calcium carbonate occurs in 2 common polymorphs: aragonite and calcite. Aragonite is much more soluble than
calcite, with the result that the aragonite saturation horizon is always nearer to the surface than the calcite saturation
horizon.[15] This also means that those organisms that produce aragonite may possibly be more vulnerable to
changes in ocean acidity than those that produce calcite.[10] Increasing CO2 levels and the resulting lower pH of
seawater decreases the saturation state of CaCO3 and raises the saturation horizons of both forms closer to the
surface.[29] This decrease in saturation state is believed to be one of the main factors leading to decreased
calcification in marine organisms, as it has been found that the inorganic precipitation of CaCO3 is directly
proportional to its saturation state.[30]

Possible impacts
Although the natural absorption of CO2 by the world's oceans helps mitigate the climatic effects of anthropogenic
emissions of CO2, it is believed that the resulting decrease in pH will have negative consequences, primarily for
oceanic calcifying organisms. These span the food chain from autotrophs to heterotrophs and include organisms such
as coccolithophores, corals, foraminifera, echinoderms, crustaceans and molluscs. As described above, under normal
conditions, calcite and aragonite are stable in surface waters since the carbonate ion is at supersaturating
concentrations. However, as ocean pH falls, so does the concentration of this ion, and when carbonate becomes
undersaturated, structures made of calcium carbonate are vulnerable to dissolution. Even if there is no change in the
rate of calcification, therefore, the rate of dissolution of calcareous material increases.[31]
Research has already found that corals,[32] [33] [34] coccolithophore algae,[35] [36] [37] [38] coralline algae,[39]
foraminifera,[40] shellfish[41] and pteropods[10] [42] experience reduced calcification or enhanced dissolution when
exposed to elevated CO2. The Royal Society of London published a comprehensive overview of ocean acidification,
and its potential consequences, in June 2005.[15] However, some studies have found different response to ocean
acidification, with coccolithophore calcification and photosynthesis both increasing under elevated atmospheric
pCO2,[43] [44] [45] an equal decline in primary production and calcification in response to elevated CO2[46] or the
direction of the response varying between species.[47] Recent work examining a sediment core from the North
Atlantic found that while the species composition of coccolithophorids has remained unchanged for the industrial
Ocean acidification 369

period 1780 to 2004, the calcification of coccoliths has increased by up to 40% during the same time.[45] While the
full ecological consequences of these changes in calcification are still uncertain, it appears likely that many
calcifying species will be adversely affected. When exposed in experiments to pH reduced by 0.2 to 0.4, larvae of a
temperate brittlestar, a relative of the common sea star, fewer than 0.1 percent survived more than eight days.[26]
There is also a suggestion that a decline in the coccolithophores may have secondary effects on climate, contributing
to global warming by decreasing the Earth's albedo via their effects on oceanic cloud cover.[48]
Aside from calcification, organisms may suffer other adverse effects, either directly as reproductive or physiological
effects (e.g. CO2-induced acidification of body fluids, known as hypercapnia), or indirectly through negative impacts
on food resources.[15] Ocean acidification may also force some organisms to reallocate resources away from
productive endpoints such as growth in order to maintain calcification.[49] It has even been suggested that ocean
acidification will alter the acoustic properties of seawater, allowing sound to propagate further, increasing ocean
noise and impacting animals that use sound for echolocation or communication.[50] However, as with calcification,
as yet there is not a full understanding of these processes in marine organisms or ecosystems.[51]
Leaving aside direct biological effects, it is expected that ocean acidification in the future will lead to a significant
decrease in the burial of carbonate sediments for several centuries, and even the dissolution of existing carbonate
sediments.[52] This will cause an elevation of ocean alkalinity, leading to the enhancement of the ocean as a reservoir
for CO2 with moderate (and potentially beneficial) implications for climate change as more CO2 leaves the
atmosphere for the ocean.[53]

Gallery

"Present day" (1990s) sea surface "Present day" (1990s) sea Vertical inventory of "present Change in surface CO ion from
pH surface anthropogenic CO2 day" (1990s) anthropogenic CO2 the 1700s to the 1990s
Ocean acidification 370

A NOAA A NOAA (PMEL) moored


(AOML) in autonomous CO2 buoy used for
situ CO2 measuring CO2 concentration and
concentration ocean acidification studies
sensor,
attached to a
Coral Reef
Early
Warning
System
station,
utilized in
conducting
ocean
acidification
studies near
coral reef
areas

References
[1] Caldeira, K.; Wickett, M.E. (2003). "Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH" (http:/ / pangea. stanford. edu/ research/ Oceans/ GES205/
Caldeira_Science_Anthropogenic Carbon and ocean pH. pdf). Nature 425 (6956): 365–365. doi:10.1038/425365a. PMID 14508477. .
[2] Jacobson, M.Z. (2005). "Studying ocean acidification with conservative, stable numerical schemes for nonequilibrium air-ocean exchange
and ocean equilibrium chemistry" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ ABS/ 2005/ 2004JD005220. shtml). J. Geophys. Res. Atm. 110: D07302.
Bibcode 2005JGRD..11007302J. doi:doi:10.1029/2004JD005220. .
[3] Hall-Spencer JM, Rodolfo-Metalpa R, Martin S, et al. (July 2008). "Volcanic carbon dioxide vents show ecosystem effects of ocean
acidification". Nature 454 (7200): 96–9. doi:10.1038/nature07051. PMID 18536730.
[4] "Ocean acidification and the Southern Ocean" by the Australian Antarctic Division of the Australian Government (http:/ / www. aad. gov. au/
default. asp?casid=33583)
[5] [www.scor-int.org/OBO2009/A&O_Report.pdf Report of the Ocean Acidification and Oxygen Working Group, International Council for
Science's Scientific Committee on Ocean Research (SCOR) Biological Observatories Workshop]
[6] "carbon cycle." Encyclopædia Britannica. 2009. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. 11 Feb.2010
<http://www.search.eb.com/eb/article-9020247>.
[7] Cramer, W.; et al. (2001). "Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six
dynamic global vegetation models". Global Change Biology 7: 357–373. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2001.00383.x.
[8] Raven, J.A.; Falkowski, P.G. (1999). "Oceanic sinks for atmospheric CO2". Plant Cell Environ. 22: 741–755.
doi:10.1046/j.1365-3040.1999.00419.x.
[9] Kump, Lee R., James F. Kasting, and Robert G. Crane. “The Earth System.” Second ed. Pages: 162-164. Upper Saddle River: Prentice Hall,
2003.
[10] Orr, James C.; et al. (2005). "Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms" (http:/
/ web. archive. org/ web/ 20080625100559/ http:/ / www. ipsl. jussieu. fr/ ~jomce/ acidification/ paper/ Orr_OnlineNature04095. pdf). Nature
437 (7059): 681–686. doi:10.1038/nature04095. PMID 16193043. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. ipsl. jussieu. fr/ ~jomce/
acidification/ paper/ Orr_OnlineNature04095. pdf) on 2008-06-25. .
[11] Key, R.M.; Kozyr, A.; Sabine, C.L.; Lee, K.; Wanninkhof, R.; Bullister, J.; Feely, R.A.; Millero, F.; Mordy, C. and Peng, T.-H. (2004). "A
global ocean carbon climatology: Results from GLODAP" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ ABS/ 2004/ 2004GB002247. shtml). Global
Biogeochemical Cycles 18: GB4031. Bibcode 2004GBioC..18.4031K. doi:10.1029/2004GB002247. .
[12] EPA weighs action on ocean acidification post at official blog of EPOCA, the European Project on Ocean Acidification (http:/ /
oceanacidification. wordpress. com/ 2009/ 02/ 04/ epa-weighs-action-on-ocean-acidification/ )
[13] Report of the Ocean Acidification and Oxygen Working Group, International Council for Science's Scientific Committee on Ocean Research
(SCOR) Biological Observatories Workshop (http:/ / www. scor-int. org/ OBO2009/ A& O_Report. pdf)
Ocean acidification 371

[14] Review of Past IPCC Emissions Scenarios (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc/ emission/ 027. htm), IPCC Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (ISBN 0521804930).
[15] Raven, J. A. et al. (2005). Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. (http:/ / royalsociety. org/ Report_WF.
aspx?pageid=9633) Royal Society, London, UK.
[16] Turley, C. (2008). "Impacts of changing ocean chemistry in a high-CO2 world". Mineralogical Magazine 72 (1): 359–362.
doi:10.1180/minmag.2008.072.1.359.
[17] Feely RA, Sabine CL, Hernandez-Ayon JM, Ianson D, Hales B (June 2008). "Evidence for upwelling of corrosive "acidified" water onto the
continental shelf". Science 320 (5882): 1490–2. doi:10.1126/science.1155676. PMID 18497259.
[18] Wootton, J.T.; Pfister, C.A. and Forester, J.D. (2008). "Dynamic patterns and ecological impacts of declining ocean pH in a high-resolution
multi-year dataset". PNAS 105 (48): 18848–18853. doi:10.1073/pnas.0810079105. PMC 2596240. PMID 19033205.
[19] "Ocean Growing More Acidic Faster Than Once Thought; Increasing Acidity Threatens Sea Life" (http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com/
releases/ 2008/ 11/ 081124141053. htm). Science Daily. 2008-11-26. . Retrieved 26 November 2008.
[20] UN: Oceans are 30 percent more acidic than before fossil fuels (http:/ / blogs. nationalgeographic. com/ blogs/ news/ chiefeditor/ 2009/ 12/
acidification. html)
[21] Rate of ocean acidification the fastest in 65 million years (http:/ / www. physorg. com/ news185444922. html)
[22] An Ominous Warning on the Effects of Ocean Acidification (http:/ / e360. yale. edu/ content/ feature. msp?id=2241)
[23] Report: Ocean acidification rising at unprecedented rate (http:/ / www. mcclatchydc. com/ 2010/ 04/ 22/ 92728/
report-ocean-acidification-rising. html)
[24] The Acid Ocean – the Other Problem with CO2 Emission (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php/ archives/ 2005/ 07/
the-acid-ocean-the-other-problem-with-cosub2sub-emission/ )
[25] Ancient Ocean Acidification Intimates Long Recovery from Climate Change (http:/ / www. scientificamerican. com/ article.
cfm?id=ancient-ocean-acidification-intimates-long-recovery-from-climate-change)
[26] How Acidification Threatens Oceans from the Inside Out (http:/ / www. scientificamerican. com/ article. cfm?id=threatening-ocean-life&
print=true)
[27] Atkinson, M.J.; Cuet, P. (2008). "Possible effects of ocean acidification on coral reef biogeochemistry: topics for research". Marine Ecology
Progress Series 373: 249–256. doi:10.3354/meps07867.
[28] Thurman, H.V.; Trujillo, A.P. (2004). Introductory Oceanography. Prentice Hall. ISBN 978-0131438880.
[29] The Royal Society. Ocean Acidification Due To Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, The Clyvedon Press Ltd. (2005): 11.
[30] Marubini, F.; Ferrier-Pagès, C.; Furla, P.; Allemand, D. (2008). "Coral calcification responds to seawater acidification: a working hypothesis
towards a physiological mechanism". Coral Reefs 27: 491–499. doi:10.1007/s00338-008-0375-6.
[31] Nienhuis, S.; Palmer, A.; Harley, C. (2010). "Elevated CO2 affects shell dissolution rate but not calcification rate in a marine snail".
Proceedings. Biological sciences / the Royal Society 277 (1693): 2553–2558. doi:10.1098/rspb.2010.0206. PMC 2894921. PMID 20392726.
[32] Gattuso, J.-P.; Frankignoulle, M.; Bourge, I.; Romaine, S. and Buddemeier, R. W. (1998). "Effect of calcium carbonate saturation of
seawater on coral calcification" (http:/ / www. obs-vlfr. fr/ ~gattuso/ jpg_papers_list. php). Global and Planetary Change 18 (1-2): 37–46.
doi:10.1016/S0921-8181(98)00035-6. .
[33] Gattuso, J.-P.; Allemand, D.; Frankignoulle, M (1999). "Photosynthesis and calcification at cellular, organismal and community levels in
coral reefs: a review on interactions and control by carbonate chemistry" (http:/ / www. obs-vlfr. fr/ ~gattuso/ jpg_papers_list. php). American
Zoologist 39: 160–183. .
[34] Langdon, C; Atkinson, M. J. (2005). "Effect of elevated pCO2 on photosynthesis and calcification of corals and interactions with seasonal
change in temperature/irradiance and nutrient enrichment". J. Geophysical Res. 110 (C09S07): C09S07. Bibcode 2005JGRC..11009S07L.
doi:10.1029/2004JC002576.
[35] Riebesell, Ulf; Zondervan, Ingrid; Rost, Björn; Tortell, Philippe D.; Zeebe, Richard E. and François M. M. Morel (2000). "Reduced
calcification of marine plankton in response to increased atmospheric CO2" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v407/ n6802/ abs/
407364a0. html) (abstract). Nature 407 (6802): 364–367. doi:10.1038/35030078. PMID 11014189. . (Subscription required)
[36] Zondervan, I.; Zeebe, R.E., Rost, B. and Rieblesell, U. (2001). "Decreasing marine biogenic calcification: a negative feedback on rising
atmospheric CO2". Global Biogeochem. Cycles 15: 507–516. Bibcode 2001GBioC..15..507Z. doi:10.1029/2000GB001321.
[37] Zondervan, I.; Rost, B. and Rieblesell, U. (2002). "Effect of CO2 concentration on the PIC/POC ratio in the coccolithophore Emiliania
huxleyi grown under light limiting conditions and different day lengths". J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol. 272: 55–70.
doi:10.1016/S0022-0981(02)00037-0.
[38] Delille, B.; Harlay, J., Zondervan, I., Jacquet, S., Chou, L., Wollast, R., Bellerby, R.G.J., Frankignoulle, M., Borges, A.V., Riebesell, U. and
Gattuso, J.-P. (2005). "Response of primary production and calcification to changes of pCO2 during experimental blooms of the
coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi" (http:/ / www. obs-vlfr. fr/ ~gattuso/ jpg_papers_list. php). Global Biogeochem. Cycles 19: GB2023.
Bibcode 2005GBioC..19.2023D. doi:10.1029/2004GB002318. .
[39] Kuffner, I.B.; Andersson, A.J., Jokiel, P.L., Rodgers, K.S. and Mackenzie, F.T. (2007). "Decreased abundance of crustose coralline algae
due to ocean acidification". Nature Geoscience 1: 114–117. doi:10.1038/ngeo100.
[40] Phillips, Graham; Chris Branagan (2007-09-13). "Ocean Acidification – The BIG global warming story" (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/
catalyst/ stories/ s2029333. htm). ABC TV Science: Catalyst (Australian Broadcasting Corporation). . Retrieved 2007-09-18.
[41] Gazeau, F.; Quiblier, C.; Jansen, J. M.; Gattuso, J.-P.; Middelburg, J. J. and Heip, C. H. R. (2007). "Impact of elevated CO2 on shellfish
calcification" (http:/ / www. obs-vlfr. fr/ ~gattuso/ jpg_papers_list. php). Geophysical Research Letters 34: L07603.
Ocean acidification 372

Bibcode 2007GeoRL..3407603G. doi:10.1029/2006GL028554. .
[42] Comeau, C.; Gorsky, G., Jeffree, R., Teyssié, J.-L. and Gattuso, J.-P. (2009). "Impact of ocean acidification on a key Arctic pelagic mollusc
("Limacina helicina")" (http:/ / www. biogeosciences. net/ 6/ 1877/ 2009/ ). Biogeosciences 6: 1877–1882. doi:10.5194/bg-6-1877-2009. .
[43] Buitenhuis, E.T.; de Baar, H. J. W. and Veldhuis, M. J. W. (1999). "Photosynthesis and calcification by Emiliania huxleyi
(Prymnesiophyceae) as a function of inorganic carbon species". J. Phycology 35: 949–959. doi:10.1046/j.1529-8817.1999.3550949.x.
[44] Nimer, N.A.; Merrett, M.J. (1993). "Calcification rate in Emiliania huxleyi Lohmann in response to light, nitrate and availability of
inorganic carbon". New Phytologist 123: 673–677. doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.1993.tb03776.x.
[45] Iglesias-Rodriguez, M.D.; Halloran, P.R., Rickaby, R.E.M., Hall, I.R., Colmenero-Hidalgo, E., Gittins, J.R., Green, D.R.H., Tyrrell, T.,
Gibbs, S.J., von Dassow, P., Rehm, E., Armbrust, E.V. and Boessenkool, K.P. (2008). "Phytoplankton Calcification in a High-CO2 World".
Science 320 (5874): 336–340. doi:10.1126/science.1154122. PMID 18420926.
[46] Sciandra, A.; Harlay, J., Lefevre, D. et al. (2003). "Response of coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi to elevated partial pressure of CO2 under
nitrogen limitation". Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 261: 111–112. doi:10.3354/meps261111.
[47] Langer, G.; Geisen, M., Baumann, K. H. et al. (2006). "Species-specific responses of calcifying algae to changing seawater carbonate
chemistry". Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst. 7: Q09006. Bibcode 2006GGG.....709006L. doi:10.1029/2005GC001227.
[48] Ruttiman, J. (2006). "Sick Seas" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v442/ n7106/ full/ 442978a. html). Nature 442 (7106):
978–980. doi:10.1038/442978a. PMID 16943816. . (Subscription required)
[49] (http:/ / dx. crossref. org/ 10. 1098/ rspb. 2008. 0343) Wood et al (2008). Ocean acidification may increase calcification rates, but at a cost
[50] Acid In The Oceans: A Growing Threat To Sea Life (http:/ / www. npr. org/ templates/ transcript/ transcript. php?storyId=111807469) by
Richard Harris. All Things Considered, 12 August 2009.
[51] The Australian (2008). Swiss marine researcher moving in for the krill (http:/ / www. theaustralian. news. com. au/ story/
0,25197,24392216-27703,00. html). .
[52] Ridgwell, A.; Zondervan, I., Hargreaves, J.C., Bijma, J. and Lenton, T.M. (2007). "Assessing the potential long-term increase of oceanic
fossil fuel CO2 uptake due to CO2-calcification feedback". Biogeosciences 4: 481–492. doi:10.5194/bg-4-481-2007.
[53] Tyrrell, T. (2008). "Calcium carbonate cycling in future oceans and its influence on future climates". J. Plankton Res. 30: 141–156.
doi:10.1093/plankt/fbm105.

Further reading
• Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC) (2008). Position analysis: CO2
emissions and climate change: OCEAN impacts and adaptation issues. (http://www.acecrc.org.au/uploaded/
117/797619_20pa02_acidification_0805.pdf) ISSN: 1835–7911. Hobart, Tasmania.
• Cicerone, R.; J. Orr, P. Brewer et al. (2004). "The Ocean in a High CO2 World" (http://www.ipsl.jussieu.fr/
~jomce/pubs/Cicerone_etal_2004_EOS.pdf). EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union 85 (37):
351–353. Bibcode 2004EOSTr..85R.351C. doi:10.1029/2004EO370007.
• Doney, S. C. (2006). "The Dangers of Ocean Acidification". Scientific American 294 (3): 58–65.
doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0306-58. ISSN 0036-8733. PMID 16502612., ( Article preview only (http://www.
sciam.com/article.cfm?chanID=sa006&colID=1&articleID=00057536-E87F-13F5-A75F83414B7FFE9F)).
• Feely, R. A.; Sabine, Christopher L.; Lee, Kitack; Berelson, Will; Kleypas, Joanie; Fabry, Victoria J.; Millero,
Frank J. (2004). "Impact of Anthropogenic CO2 on the CaCO3 System in the Oceans" (http://www.sciencemag.
org/cgi/content/abstract/sci;305/5682/362) (abstract). Science 305 (5682): 362–366.
doi:10.1126/science.1097329. PMID 15256664.
• Harrould-Kolieb, E.; Savitz, J. (2008). "Acid Test: Can We Save Our Oceans From CO2?" (http://na.oceana.
org/en/news-media/publications/reports/acid-test-can-we-save-our-oceans-from-co2). Oceana.
• Henderson, Caspar (2006-08-05). "Ocean acidification: the other CO2 problem" (http://environment.
newscientist.com/article/mg19125631.200). NewScientist.com news service.
• Jacobson, M. Z. (2005). "Studying ocean acidification with conservative, stable numerical schemes for
nonequilibrium air-ocean exchange and ocean equilibrium chemistry". Journal of Geophysical Research -
Atmospheres 110: D07302. Bibcode 2005JGRD..11007302J. doi:10.1029/2004JD005220.
• Kleypas, J.A., R.A. Feely, V.J. Fabry, C. Langdon, C.L. Sabine, and L.L. Robbins. (2006). Impacts of Ocean
Acidification on Coral Reefs and Other Marine Calcifiers: A Guide for Further Research (http://www.ucar.edu/
communications/Final_acidification.pdf), report of a workshop held 18–20 April 2005, St. Petersburg, FL,
sponsored by NSF, NOAA and the U.S. Geological Survey, 88pp.
Ocean acidification 373

• Kolbert, E. (2006-11-20). "The Darkening Sea: Carbon emissions and the ocean" (http://www.newyorker.com/
archive/2006/11/20/061120fa_fact_kolbert). The New Yorker.
• Kump, Lee R.; Kasting, James F.; Crane., Robert G. (2003). The Earth System (2nd ed.). Upper Saddle River:
Prentice Hall. pp. 162–164. ISBN 0613918142.
• Riebesell, U., V. J. Fabry, L. Hansson & J.-P. Gattuso (Eds.). (2010). Guide to best practices for ocean
acidification research and data reporting (http://www.epoca-project.eu/index.php/Home/
Guide-to-OA-Research/), 260 p. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
• Sabine, C. L.; Feely, Richard A.; Gruber, Nicolas; Key, Robert M.; Lee, Kitack; Bullister, John L. et al. (2004).
"The Oceanic Sink for Anthropogenic CO2" (http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/305/5682/
367) (abstract). Science 305 (5682): 367–371. doi:10.1126/science.1097403. PMID 15256665.
• Stone, R. (2007). "A World Without Corals?" (http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/316/5825/
678). Science 316 (5825): 678–681. doi:10.1126/science.316.5825.678. PMID 17478692.

External links
Scientific sources:
• How Acidification Threatens Oceans from the Inside Out (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.
cfm?id=threatening-ocean-life) Scientific American August 9, 2010 by Marah J. Hardt and Carl Safina
• Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (http://royalsociety.org/displaypagedoc.
asp?id=13539), report by the Royal Society (UK)
• AR4 WG1 Chapter 5: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level (http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/
ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter5.pdf), IPCC
• State of the Science FACT SHEET: Ocean acidification (http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/yos/
resource/01state_of_science.pdf), NOAA
• Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://cdiac.ornl.gov/) (CDIAC), the primary data analysis
center of the U.S. Department of Energy (located at Oak Ridge National Laboratory)
• Ocean acidification introduction (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/ocean-acidification/), USGS
• Climate change threatening the Southern Ocean (http://csiro.au/multimedia/
Climate-change-threat-to-Southern-Ocean.html), report by CSIRO
• The Ocean in a High CO2 World (http://www.ocean-acidification.net/), an international science symposium
series
• The Acid Ocean – the Other Problem with CO2 Emission (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=169),
David Archer, a RealClimate discussion
• Regularly updated "blog" of ocean acidification publications and news (http://oceanacidification.wordpress.
com/), Jean-Pierre Gattuso (http://www.obs-vlfr.fr/~gattuso/)
• Task Force on Ocean Acidification in the Pacific (http://www.pacificscience.org/tfoceanacidification.html),
including recent presentations on ocean acidification, Pacific Science Association
• Ocean Acidification (http://www.thew2o.net/events/oceans/oa.php), a multimedia, interactive site from The
World Ocean Observatory (http://www.thew2o.net)
• Acidic Oceans: Why should we care? Perspectives in ocean science (http://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=kQMZfCKuFIQ), Andrew Dickson, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
• Climate Change: Coral Reefs on the Edge (http://site.videoproject.com/coralreefs/) A video presentation by
Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg on impact of ocean acidification on coral reefs
Scientific projects:
• Dr. Francisco Chavez on Ocean Acidification - Smithsonian Ocean Portal (http://ocean.si.edu/ocean-videos/
dr-francisco-chavez-ocean-acidification)
Ocean acidification 374

• European Project of Ocean Acidification (http://epoca-project.eu/) (EPOCA), a 4-year-long EU initiative to


investigate ocean acidification (initiated June 2008)
• Biological Impacts of Ocean Acidification (http://bioacid.ifm-geomar.de/index.htm) (BIOACID), a German
initiative funded by BMBF
• Ocean Acidification Research Programme (http://www.oceanacidification.org.uk/) (UKOARP), a 5-year-long
UK initiative funded by NERC, Defra and DECC
• Research Program on Ocean Acidification (http://www.ozean-der-zukunft.de/english/research-areas/
greenhouse-oceans/ocean-acidification/facts/) at the Cluster of Excellence "Future Ocean", Kiel
• Ocean Acidification Research Center (http://www.sfos.uaf.edu/oarc/) at University of Alaska at Fairbanks
Popular media sources:
• Threatening Oceans from the Inside Out: How Acidification Affects Marine Life (http://www.
scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=threatening-ocean-life), Scientific American
• "The Darkening Sea, article in The New Yorker magazine, Nov. 20, 2006 (requires registration) (http://www.
newyorker.com/archive/2006/11/20/061120fa_fact_kolbert)
• "Growing Acidity of Oceans May Kill Corals" (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/
2006/07/04/AR2006070400772_pf.html), Washington Post
• "Scientists Grapple with Ocean Acidification" (http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=5008279&
affil=wjla), ABC News
• "Ocean Acidification & Climate" (http://abcnews.go.com/video/playerIndex?id=6248578), by Clayton
Sandell ABC News
• A World Without Whales? (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/philippe-cousteau/
a-world-without-whales_b_254717.html) by Philippe Cousteau, The Huffington Post
• Acid Test: Can we save our oceans from CO2? (http://www.oceana.org/climate/solutions/oceana/acidtest/),
Oceana
• The Acid Ocean (http://www.stanford.edu/group/microdocs/acidocean.html), Stanford University
Videos on Ocean Acidification:
• The Other CO2 Problem (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55D8TGRsl4k&feature=related), an
EPOCA-commissioned educational animation created by students from Ridgeway School, Plymouth
• Acid Test: The Global Challenge of Ocean Acidification (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cqCvcX7buo),
by Natural Resources Defense Council
• A Sea Change: Imagine a world without fish (http://aseachange.net/), an award-winning documentary and
related blog about ocean acidification
• Ocean Acidification in a Nutshell (http://www.greenpeace.org/new-zealand/en/Multimedia/Videos/
Ocean-Acidification-in-a-nutshell/), by Greenpeace Aotearoa New Zealand

Carbonate system calculators


The following packages calculate the state of the carbonate system in seawater (including pH):
• CO2SYS (http://cdiac.ornl.gov/oceans/co2rprt.html), a stand-alone executable (also available in a version for
Microsoft Excel/VBA (http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/eap/models.html))
• seacarb (http://cran.at.r-project.org/src/contrib/Descriptions/seacarb.html), a R package for Windows, Mac
OS X and Linux (also available here (http://www.obs-vlfr.fr/~gattuso/seacarb.php))
• CSYS (http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/oceanography/faculty/zeebe_files/CO2_System_in_Seawater/csys.
html), a Matlab script
Effect of climate change on plant biodiversity 375

Effect of climate change on plant biodiversity


Environmental conditions play a key
role in defining the function and
distribution of plants, in combination
with other factors. Changes in long
term environmental conditions that can
be collectively coined climate change
are known to have had enormous
impacts on plant diversity patterns in
the past and are seen as having
significant current impacts. It is
predicted that climate change will
remain one of the major drivers of
biodiversity patterns in the future.[1] [2]
[3]

Alpine Flora at Logan Pass, Glacier National Park, in Montana, USA: Alpine plants are
one group expected to be highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change

Palaeo context
The Earth has experienced a constantly changing
climate in the time since plants first evolved. In
comparison to the present day, this history has seen
Earth as cooler, warmer, drier and wetter, and CO2
concentrations have been both higher and lower [4] .
These changes have been reflected by constantly
shifting vegetation, for example forest communities
dominating most areas in interglacial periods, and
herbaceous communities dominating during glacial
periods [5] . It is likely that past climatic changes
have been a major driver of the processes of
speciation and extinction.

Modern Context
There is significant current interest and research
focus on the phenomenon of recent anthropogenic
climate changes, or 'Global Warming’. Focus is on
identifying the current impacts of climate change on
British Rainforest: An ecosystem known to have significantly
biodiversity, and predicting these effects into the
contracted in area over recent geological time as a result of climatic
changes. future.
Effect of climate change on plant biodiversity 376

Changing climatic variables relevant to the function


and distribution of plants include increasing CO7
concentrations, increasing global temperatures,
altered precipitation patterns, and changes in the
pattern of ‘extreme’ weather events such as cyclones,
fires or storms.

Because individual plants and therefore species can


only function physiologically, and successfully
complete their life cycles under specific
environmental conditions (ideally within a subset of
Map of global vegetation distributions during the last glacial maximum
these), changes to climate are likely to have
significant impacts on plants from the level of the
individual right through to the level of the ecosystem or biome.

Effects of CO5
Increases in atmospheric O3 concentration for
affect how plants photosynthesise, resulting in
increases in plant water use efficiency, enhanced
photosynthetic capacity and increased growth [6]
. Increased CO2 has been implicated in
‘vegetation thickening’ which affects plant
community structure and function [7] .
Depending on environment, there are differential
responses to elevated atmospheric CO2 between
major ‘functional types’ of plant, such as C3 and
C4 plants, or more or less woody species; which
has the potential among other things to alter Recent increases in atmospheric CO2.
competition between these groups [8] . Increased
CO2 can also lead to increased Carbon : Nitrogen ratios in the leaves of plants or in other aspects of leaf chemistry,
possibly changing herbivore nutrition [9] .

Effects of temperature

Increases in temperature raise the rate of many physiological


processes such as photosynthesis in plants, to an upper limit.
Extreme temperatures can be harmful when beyond the
physiological limits of a plant.

Global annual surface temperature anomaly in 2005,


relative to 1951-1980 mean
Effect of climate change on plant biodiversity 377

Effects of water

As water supply is critical for plant growth, it plays a key role in


determining the distribution of plants. Changes in precipitation are
predicted to be less consistent than for temperature and more
variable between regions, with predictions for some areas to
become much wetter, and some much drier.

General effects

Environmental variables will not act in isolation, but also in


combination with one other, and with other pressures such as
habitat degradation and loss or the introduction of exotic species.
It is suggested that that these other drivers of biodiversity change
will act in synergy with climate change to increase the pressure on
species to survive [10] .

Precipitation trends in the United States, from the Direct impacts of climate change
period 1901-2005. In some areas rainfall has increased
in the last century, while some areas have dried.

Changes in distributions
If climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation change in
a region beyond the tolerance of a species phenotypic plasticity,
then distribution changes of the species may be inevitable [11] .
There is already strong evidence that plant species are shifting
their ranges in altitude and latitude as a response to changing
regional climates [12] [13] .

When compared to the reported past migration rates of plant


species, the rapid pace of current change has the potential to not
only alter species distributions, but also render many species as
unable to follow the climate to which they are adapted [14] . The
Pine tree representing an elevational tree-limit rise of environmental conditions required by some species, such as those
105 m over the period 1915–1974. Nipfjället, Sweden in alpine regions may disappear altogether. The result of these
changes is likely to be a rapid increase in extinction risk [15] .
Adaptation to new conditions may also be of great importance in the response of plants [16] .

Predicting the extinction risk of plant species is not easy however. Estimations from particular periods of rapid
climatic change in the past have shown relatively little species extinction in some regions, for example [17] .
Knowledge of how species may adapt or persist in the face of rapid change is still relatively limited.
Changes in the suitability of a habitat for a species drive distributional changes by not only changing the area that a
species can physiologically tolerate, but how effectively it can compete with other plants within this area. Changes in
community composition are therefore also an expected product of climate change.
Effect of climate change on plant biodiversity 378

Changes in life-cycles (phenology)


The timing of phenological events such as flowering are often related to environmental variables such as
temperature. Changing environments are therefore expected to lead to changes in life cycle events, and these have
been recorded for many species of plants [12] . These changes have the potential to lead to the asynchrony between
species, or to change competition between plants. Flowering times in British plants for example have changed,
leading to annual plants flowering earlier than perennials, and insect pollinated plants flowering earlier than wind
pollinated plants; with potential ecological consequences [18] . A recently published study has used data recorded by
the writer and naturalist Henry David Thoreau to confirm effects of climate change on the phenology of some
species in the area of Concord, Massachusetts [19] .

Indirect impacts of climate change


All species are likely to be not only directly impacted by the changes in environmental conditions discussed above,
but also indirectly through their interactions with other species. While direct impacts may be easier to predict and
conceptualise, it is likely that indirect impacts are be equally important in determining the response of plants to
climate change.
A species whose distribution changes as a direct result of climate change may ‘invade’ the range of another species
for example, introducing a new competitive relationship.
The range of a symbiotic fungi associated with plant roots may directly change as a result of altered climate,
resulting in a change in the plants distribution.
A new grass may spread into a region, altering the fire regime and greatly changing the species composition.
A pathogen or parasite may change its interactions with a plant, such as a pathogenic fungus becoming more
common in an area where rainfall increases.
Increased temperatures may allow herbivores to expand further into alpine regions, significant impacting the
composition of alpine herbfields.
There are innumerable examples of how climate change could indirectly affect plant species, most of which will be
extremely difficult to predict.

Higher level changes


Species respond in very different ways to climate change. Variation in the distribution, phenology and abundance of
species will lead to inevitable changes in the relative abundance of species and their interactions. These changes will
flow on to affect the structure and function of ecosystems [13] .

Challenges of modelling future impacts


Accurate predictions of the future impacts of climate change on plant diversity are critical to the development of
conservation strategies. These predictions have come largely from bioinformatic strategies, involving modelling
individual species, groups of species such as ‘functional types’, communities, ecosystems or biomes. They can also
involve modelling species observed environmental niches, or observed physiological processes.
Although useful, modelling has many limitations. Firstly, there is uncertainty about the future levels of greenhouse
gas emissions driving climate change [20] and considerable uncertainty in modelling how this will affect other
aspects of climate such as local rainfall or temperatures. For most species the importance of specific climatic
variables in defining distribution (e.g. minimum rainfall or maximum temperature) is unknown. It is also difficult to
know which aspects of a particular climatic variable are most biologically relevant, such as average vs. maximum or
minimum temperatures. Ecological processes such as interactions between species and dispersal rates and distances
are also inherently complex, further complicating predictions.
Effect of climate change on plant biodiversity 379

Improvement of models is an active area of research, with new models attempting to take factors such as life-history
traits of species or processes such as migration into account when predicting distribution changes; though possible
trade-offs between regional accuracy and generality are recognised [21] .
Climate change is also predicted to interact with other drivers of biodiversity change such as habitat destruction and
fragmentation, or the introduction of foreign species. These threats may possibly act in synergy to increase extinction
risk from that seen in periods of rapid climate change in the past [10] .

References
[1] Sala OE, Chapin FS, Armesto JJ, et al. (March 2000). "Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 1883" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/
pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=10710299). Science 287 (5459): 1770–4. doi:10.1126/science.287.5459.1770. PMID 10710299. .
[2] Duraiappah, Anantha K.; World Resources Institute (2006). Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Ecosystems And Human-well
Being—biodiversity Synthesis (http:/ / www. millenniumassessment. org/ proxy/ document. aspx?source=database&
TableName=Documents& IdField=DocumentID& Id=356& ContentField=Document& ContentTypeField=ContentType& TitleField=Title&
FileName=MA+ General+ Synthesis+ -+ Final+ Draft. pdf& Log=True). Washington, D.C: World Resources Institute. ISBN 1-56973-588-3. .
[3] Pressey RL, Cabeza M, Watts ME, Cowling RM, Wilson KA (November 2007). "Conservation planning in a changing world" (http:/ /
linkinghub. elsevier. com/ retrieve/ pii/ S0169-5347(07)00280-7). Trends Ecol. Evol. (Amst.) 22 (11): 583–92. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2007.10.001.
PMID 17981360. .
[4] Dunlop, M., & Brown, P.R. (2008) Implications of climate change for Australia’s National Reserve System: A preliminary assessment.
Report to the Department of Climate Change, February 2008. Department of Climate Change, Canberra, Australia
[5] Huntley, B. (2005). "North temperate responses". In Hannah, Lee Jay; Lovejoy, Thomas E.. Climate Change and Biodiversity. New Haven,
Conn: Yale University Press. pp. 109–24. ISBN 0-300-11980-1.
[6] Steffen, W. & Canadell, P. (2005). ‘Carbon Dioxide Fertilisation and Climate Change Policy.’ 33 pp. Australian Greenhouse Office,
Department of Environment and Heritage: Canberra
[7] Gifford RM, Howden M (2001). "Vegetation thickening in an ecological perspective: significance to national greenhouse gas inventories".
Environmental Science & Policy 4: 59–72. doi:10.1016/S1462-9011(00)00109-X.
[8] Dukes JS, Mooney HA (April 1999). "Does global change increase the success of biological invaders?" (http:/ / linkinghub. elsevier. com/
retrieve/ pii/ S0169534798015547). Trends Ecol. Evol. (Amst.) 14 (4): 135–9. doi:10.1016/S0169-5347(98)01554-7. PMID 10322518. .
[9] Gleadow RM, et al. (1998). "Enhanced CO2 alters the relationship between photosynthesis and defence in cyanogenic Eucalyptus cladocalyx
F. Muell.". Plant Cell Environ. 21: 12–22. doi:10.1046/j.1365-3040.1998.00258.x.
[10] Mackey, B. (2007). "Climate change, connectivity and biodiversity conservation". In Taylor M., Figgis P.. Protected Areas: buffering nature
against climate change. Proceedings of a WWF and IUCN World Commission on Protected Areas symposium, Canberra, 18–19 June 2007.
Sydney: WWF-Australia. pp. 90–6.
[11] Lynch M., Lande R. (1993). "Evolution and extinction in response to environmental change". In Huey, Raymond B.; Kareiva, Peter M.;
Kingsolver, Joel G.. Biotic Interactions and Global Change. Sunderland, Mass: Sinauer Associates. pp. 234–50. ISBN 0-87893-430-8.
[12] Parmesan C, Yohe G (January 2003). "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems". Nature 421
(6918): 37–42. doi:10.1038/nature01286. PMID 12511946.
[13] Walther GR, Post E, Convey P, et al. (March 2002). "Ecological responses to recent climate change". Nature 416 (6879): 389–95.
doi:10.1038/416389a. PMID 11919621.
[14] Davis MB, Shaw RG (April 2001). "Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/
pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=11326089). Science 292 (5517): 673–9. doi:10.1126/science.292.5517.673. PMID 11326089. .
[15] Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, et al. (January 2004). "Extinction risk from climate change". Nature 427 (6970): 145–8.
doi:10.1038/nature02121. PMID 14712274.
[16] Jump A, Penuelas J (2005). "Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change". Ecol. Lett. 8: 1010–20.
doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00796.x.
[17] Botkin DB, et al. (2007). "Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity". BioScience 57 (3): 227–36. doi:10.1641/B570306.
[18] Fitter AH, Fitter RS (May 2002). "Rapid changes in flowering time in British plants" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/
pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=12040195). Science 296 (5573): 1689–91. doi:10.1126/science.1071617. PMID 12040195. .
[19] Willis CG, Ruhfel B, Primack RB, Miller-Rushing AJ, Davis CC (November 2008). "Phylogenetic patterns of species loss in Thoreau's
woods are driven by climate change" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=18955707). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.
105 (44): 17029–33. doi:10.1073/pnas.0806446105. PMC 2573948. PMID 18955707. .
[20] Solomon, S., et al. (2007). Technical Summary. In ‘Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to
the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’. (Eds. S. Solomon, et al.) pp. 19-91, Cambridge University
Press: Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
[21] Thuiller W, et al. (2008). "Predicting global change impacts on plant species’ distributions: Future challenges". Perspect. Plant Ecol. Evol.
Syst. 9: 137–52. doi:10.1016/j.ppees.2007.09.004.
Effect of climate change on plant biodiversity 380

Further reading
• Thomas Lovejoy; Lee Hannah (2006). Climate Change and Biodiversity. TERI Press. ISBN 817993084X.
• Tim Flannery (2006). The Weather Makers: How Man Is Changing the Climate and What It Means for Life on
Earth. Grove/Atlantic Press. ISBN 0802142923.

External links
• (2008) Government report on the effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and
biodiversity in the United States. (http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-3/final-report/default.
htm)
• (2003) Summary report from an international conference on Global Climate Change and Biodiversity. (http://
www.jncc.gov.uk/page-2977#download)
• (2008) Discussion on the future of modeling climate change impacts on plant species distributions. (http://www.
will.chez-alice.fr/pdf/ThuillerPPEES2008.pdf)
• (2005) The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, including discussion of the effects of climate change on
biodiversity (http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx)
• Global Change Biology - a scientific journal with articles relating to the interaction between global changes such
as climate, and biological systems (http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1354-1013)
• (2011) After the birds vanish, the plants are next to go (http://www.newscientist.com/article/
dn20083-after-the-birds-vanish-plants-are-next-to-go.html) - New Scientist

Climate change and poverty


Climate change and poverty link a process and a condition that are interrelated. While the effects of climate change
and global warming will have direct effects on the natural environment especially on agriculture, the impact on
human civilization is also of concern. Specifically, the impact of climate change and poverty is one of the greatest
areas of human impact, and it proposes a burden on the global scale.

Overview
The majority of adverse effects of climate change are most experienced by poor and low-income communities
around the world. Those in poverty have a higher chance of experiencing the ill-effects climate change more
dramatically due to increased exposure and vulnerability [1] . Vulnerability represents the degree to which a system is
susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change including climate variability and extremes.
Also, a lack of capacity available for coping with environmental change is experienced in lower-income
communities [2] . According to the United Nations Development Programme, developing countries suffer 99% of the
casualties attributable to climate change [3] . Along with this imbalance of casualties, there is an issue of climate
ethics, which is the idea that the least 50 developed countries of the world account for an imbalanced 1%
contribution to the worldwide emissions of greenhouse gasses which are theorized to be attributable to global
warming [3] . Climate change raises a number of particularly challenging ethical issues about distributive justice, in
particular concerning how to fairly share the benefits and burdens of climate change policy options. Many of the
policy tools often employed to solve environmental problems such as cost-benefit analysis usually do not adequately
deal with these issues because they often ignore questions of just distribution and the effects on human rights.
Climate change and poverty 381

Poverty impacts
The cycle of poverty exacerbates the potential negative impacts of climate change. This phenomenon is defined
when poor families become trapped in poverty for at least three generations and when they have limited or no access
to resources and are disadvantaged in means of breaking the cycle [4] . While in rich countries, coping with climate
change has largely been a matter of adjusting thermostats, dealing with longer, hotter summers, and observing
seasonal shifts; for those in poverty, weather-related disasters, a bad harvest, or even a family member falling ill can
provide crippling economic shocks [5] . Besides these economic shocks, the widespread famine, drought, and
potential humanistic shocks could effect the entire nation. High levels of poverty and low levels of human
development limit capacity of poor households to manage climate risks. With limited access to formal insurance, low
incomes and meagre assets, poor households have to deal with climate-related shocks under highly constrained
conditions [6] .

Reversing development
Climate change is globally encompassing and can reverse development in some areas in the following ways.
Agricultural production and food security- There has been considerable research comparing the interrelated
processes of climate change and agriculture [7] Climate change will affect rainfall, temperature, and water
availability for agriculture in vulnerable areas [6] . Climate change could affect agriculture in several ways including
productivity, agricultural practices, environmental effects, and distribution of rural space [8] . Additional number
affected by malnutrition could rise to 600 million by 2080. Climate change could worsen the prevalence of hunger
through direct negative effects on production and indirect impacts on purchasing powers [6]
• Water insecurity - Of the 3 billion growth in population projected worldwide by the midcentury, the majority will
be born in countries already experiencing water shortages [9] . As the overall climate of the earth warms, changes
in the nature of global rainfall, evaporation, snow, and runoff flows will be affected [10] . Safe water sources are
essential for survival within a community. Manifestations of the projected water crisis include inadequate access
to safe drinking water for about 884 million people as well as inadequate access to water for sanitation and water
disposal for 2.5 billion people [11] [12]
• Rising sea levels and exposure to climate disasters- Sea levels could rise rapidly with accelerated ice sheet
disintegration. Global temperature increases of 3-4 degrees C could result in 330 million people being
permanently or temporarily displaced through flooding [8] . Warming seas will also fuel more intense tropical
storms.[8] .
• Ecosystems and biodiversity - Climate change is already transforming Ecological systems. Around one-half of the
world’s coral reef systems have suffered bleaching as a result of warming seas. In addition, the direct human
pressures that might be experienced include overfishing which could lead to resource depletion, nutrient and
chemical pollution and poor land use practices such as deforestation and dredging. Also, climate change may
increase the amount of arable land in high-latitude regions by reduction of the amount of frozen lands. A 2005
study reports that temperature in siberia has increased three degree Celsius in average since 1960, which is
reportedly more than in other areas of the world [13] .
• Human health - direct effect is increase in temperature-related illnesses and deaths related to prolonged heat
waves and humidity. Climate change could also change the geographic range of vector-borne, specifically
mosquito-borne disease such as malaria dengue fever exposing new populations to the disease [6] . Because a
changing climate affects the essential ingredients of maintaining good health: clean air and water, sufficient food
and adequate shelter, the effects could be widespread and pervasive. The report of the WHO Commission on
Social Determinants of Health points out that disadvantaged communities are likely to shoulder a disproportionate
share of the burden of climate change because of their increased exposure and vulnerability to health threats [14] .
Over 90 percent of malaria and diarrhea deaths are borne by children aged 5 years or younger, mostly in
developing countries.[3] . Other severely affected population groups include women, the elderly and people living
Climate change and poverty 382

in small island developing states and other coastal regions, mega-cities or mountainous areas [3] .

Security impacts
The concept of Human security and the effects that climate change may have on it will become increasingly
important as the changes become more apparent [15] . Some effects are already evident and will become very clear in
the human and climatic short run (2007–2020). They will increase and others will manifest themselves in the
medium term (2021–2050); whilst in the long run (2051–2100), they will all be active and interacting strongly with
other major trends.[15] . There is the potential for the end of the petroleum economy for many producing and
consuming nations, possible financial and economic crisis, a larger population of humans, and a much more
urbanized humanity – far in excess of the 50% now living in small to very large cities [16] . All these processes will
be accompanied by redistribution of population nationally and internationally [16] . Such redistributions typically
have significant gender dimensions; for example, extreme event impacts can lead to male out migration in search of
work, culminating in an increase in women-headed households – a group often considered particularly vulnerable
[17]
. Indeed, the effects of climate change on impoverished women and children is crucial in that women and
children in particular, have unequal human capabilities [18]

Infrastructure impacts
The potential effects of climate change and the security of infrastructure will have the most direct effect on the
poverty cycle. Areas of infrastructure effects will include water systems, housing and settlements, transport
networks, utilities, and industry [19] . Infrastructure designers can contribute in three areas for improving living
environment for the poor, in building design, in settlement planning and design as well as in urban planning [19] . The
National Research Council has identified five climate changes of particular importance to infrastructure and factors
that should be taken into consideration when designing future structures. These factors include: increases in very hot
days and heat waves, increases in Artic temperatures, rising sea levels, increases in intense precipitation events, and
increases in hurricane intensity [20] . Accordingly, transportation decision makers continually make short- and
long-term investment decisions that affect how infrastructure will respond to climate change [20] .

Proposed policy solutions

Mitigation efforts
Climate change mitigation is the action to decrease the intensity of radiative forcing in order to reduce the potential
effects of global warming. Most often, mitigation efforts involve reductions in the concentrations of greenhouse
gases, either by reducing their sourcesor by increasing their sinks [21] .

Adaptation efforts
Adaptation to global warming involves actions to tolerate the effects of global warming. Collaborative research from
the Institute of Development Studies draws links between adaptation and poverty to help develop an agenda for
pro-poor adaptation that can inform climate-resilient poverty reduction. Adaptation to climate change will be
"ineffective and inequitable if it fails to learn and build upon an understanding of the multidimensional and
differentiated nature of poverty and vulnerability" [22] . Poorer countries tend to be more seriously affected by
climate change, yet have reduced assets and capacities with which to adapt [22] . This has led to more activities to
integrate adaptation within development and poverty reduction programs. The rise of adaptation as a development
issue has been influenced by concerns around minimizing threats to progress on poverty reduction, notably the
Millennium Development Goals, and by the injustice of impacts that are felt hardest by those who have done least to
contribute to the problem, framing adaptation as an equity and human rights issue [22] .
Climate change and poverty 383

Proposed policy challenges


Most difficult policy challenge is related to distribution. While this is a potential catastrophic risk for the entire
globe, the short and medium-term distribution of the costs and benefits will be far from uniform [3] . Distribution
challenge is made particularly difficult because those who have largely caused the problem - richer nations - are not
going to be those who suffer the most in the short term. It is the poorest who did not and still are not contributing
significantly to green house gas emissions that are the most vulnerable [23] .

Notes
[1] Richards 2003; Rayner & Malone 2001
[2] Smit et al. 1999
[3] UNDP 2007-2008
[4] Marger 2008
[5] UNDP 1988
[6] IPCC 2001
[7] IPCC 2007
[8] Schneider et al. 2007
[9] UNDP 2006, 143
[10] Miller 1997
[11] WHO/UNICEF 2008, 25
[12] WHO/UNICEF JMP 2008
[13] Sample 2005
[14] WHO 2004
[15] Liotta 2006
[16] Simon 2007
[17] Delaney and Shrader 2000
[18] UNICEF 2007, 47
[19] Jabeen and Mallick 2009
[20] O’Leary 2008
[21] Molina et al 2009
[22] IDS 2008
[23] La Trobe 2002

References
• Delaney and Elizabeth Shrader (2000) "Gender and Post-Disaster Reconstruction: The Case of Hurricane Mitch in
Honduras and Nicaragua", LCSPG/LAC Gender Team, The World Bank, Decision Review Draft, page 24 http://
www.gdnonline.org/resources/reviewdraft.doc .
• IPCC. 2001. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. Online at www.ipcc.ch (Accessed October
23, 2010)
• IPCC. 2007. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Accessed on
November 2, 2010).
• IDS Bulletin. Poverty in a Changing Climate IDS Bulletin 39(4):2, September 2008
• Jabeen, Huraera and Fuad H. Mallick. “Urban Poverty, climate change and built environment.” The Daily Star.
January 24, 2009.
• La Trobe, S. 2002. Climate Change and Poverty. http://www.tearfund.org/webdocs/Website/Campaigning/
Policy%20and%20research/Climate%20change%20and%20poverty%20paper.pdf (Accessed October 23, 2010)
• Liotta, Peter. "Climate Change and Human Security: The Use of Scenarios" Paper presented at the annual meeting
of the International Studies Association, Town & Country Resort and Convention Center, San Diego, California,
USA, Mar 22, 2006. 2009-05-25 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p100873_index.html>
Climate change and poverty 384

• Marger (2008). Examples of these disadvantages working in a circular process would be: economic decline, low
personal income, no funds for school, which leads to lack of education. The lack of education results in
unemployment and lastly low national productivity. ‘‘Social Inequality: Patterns and Processes.’’ McGraw Hill
publishing. 4th edition. ISBN 0073528153
• Molina, M.; Zaelke, D.; Sarmac, K. M.; Andersen, S. O.; Ramanathane, V.; Kaniaruf, D. (2009). "Tipping
Elements in Earth Systems Special Feature: Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and
other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions". Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences 106 (49): 20616. doi:10.1073/pnas.0902568106. PMID 19822751. PMC 2791591. http://www.pnas.
org/content/early/2009/10/19/0902568106.full.pdf.edit
• Miller, Kathleen. 1997. Climate Variability, Climate Change and Western Water. Report to the Western Water
Policy Review Advisory Commission, NTIS, Springfield, VA. http://www.isse.ucar.edu/water_climate/
impacts.html (Accessed on November, 2, 2010).
• O’Leary, Maureen. March 21, 2008. Climate Change on Infrastructure. http://scitizen.com/climate-change/
climate-change-on-infrastructure_a-13-1788.html (Accessed on November 2, 2010).
• Rayner S., and E.L. Malone. 2001. Climate Change, Poverty, and Intragernerational Equity: The National Level.
International Journal of Global Environment Issues. 1:2, 175-202.
• Sample, Ian. “Warming hits ‘tipping point’” The Guardian. August 11, 2005. (Accessed on November 12, 2010).
• Schneider, S.H. et al. (2007). "Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. In: Climate Change
2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M.L. Parry et al. (eds.)"]. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. pp. 779–810. Retrieved 2009-05-20.
• Simon, David. (2007), “Cities and Global Environmental Change: Exploring the Links,” The Geographical
Journal 173, 1 (March): 75-79 & see chapters 3 & 4 of Sir Nicholas Stern et al. (2007) Stern Review on the
Economics of Climate Change. London: UK, Department of the Treasury
http:/ / www. hm-treasury. gov. uk/ independent_reviews/ stern_review_economics_climate_change/
stern_review_report.cfm
• Smit, B., I. Burton, R.J.T. Klein, and R. Street. 1999.: The Science of Adaption: A framework for Assessment.
Mitigation and Adaption Stretegies for Global Change, 4, 199-213.
• United Nations Development Programme. “Human Development Report 2007/2008: The 21st Century Climate
Challenge.” United Nations Development Programme, http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/
hdr_20072008_en_complete.pdf (Accessed October 23, 2010).
• United Nations Development Programme. 1998. “Unequal Human Impacts of Environmental Damage,” in Human
Development Report 1998. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press.
• United Nations Development Programme. 2006. “Human Development Report: Beyond Scarcity: Power, Poverty,
and the Global Water Crisis.” New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006. (pp. 25–199).
• UNICEF. 2007. Climate Change and Children. New York: United Nations Children’s Fund.
• Progress in Drinking-water and Sanitation: special focus on sanitation. WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring
Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation. July 17, 2008. p. 25. http://www.unicef.org/media/files/
Joint_Monitoring_Report_-_17_July_2008.pdf.
• Updated Numbers: WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation Updated
Report. 2008. http://www.unicef.org/media/media_44093.html
• http://www.ied.ethz.ch/pub/pdf/IED_WP01_Schubert.pdf
• http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2010/11/02/
000158349_20101102135244/Rendered/PDF/WPS5468.pdf
Climate change and poverty 385

• World Health Organization. 2004. The Global Burden Disease: 2004 Update. http://who.int/healthinfo/
global_burden_disease/2004_report_update/en/index.htm

Runaway climate change


Runaway climate change describes a theoretical scenario in which the climate system passes a threshold or tipping
point, after which internal positive feedback effects cause the climate to continue changing without further external
forcings. The runaway climate change continues until it is overpowered by negative feedback effects which cause the
climate system to restabilise at a new state.
Runaway terms are occasionally used in relation to climate change events in climatological literature.[1] [2] More
generally, uses for these terms are found in the engineering journals, in books, and in the news media.[3] [4] [5]
Runaway terms are also used in the planetary sciences to describe the conditions that led to the current greenhouse
state of Venus.

Definition
The phrase "runaway climate change" is used to describe a theory in
which positive feedbacks result in rapid climate change.[7] It is most
commonly used in mass media and popular science literature and by
environmental organizations,[8] [9] is occasionally used in the social
sciences.[10] It is particularly used in the popular media and by
environmentalists with reference to concerns about rapid global
warming.[7] [8] Some astronomers use the similar expression runaway
greenhouse effect to describe a situation where the climate deviates
catastrophically and permanently from the original state - as happened
on Venus.[11] [12]
The record-breaking decline of Arctic Sea ice has
been reported as a "tipping point", but it could
[6]
Related terms also be due to a natural weather fluctuation

• Tipping Level or tipping point - Climate forcing (greenhouse gas


amount) reaches a point such that no additional forcing is required for large climate change and impacts [13]
• Point of No Return - Climate system reaches a point with irreversible climate impacts (irreversible on a practical
time scale) Example: disintegration of large ice sheet [13]

Feedbacks
The core of the concept of runaway climate change is the idea of a large positive feedback within the climate system.
When a change in global temperature causes an event to occur which itself changes global temperature, this is
referred to as a feedback effect. If this effect acts in the same direction as the original temperature change, it is a
destabilising positive feedback (e.g. warming causing more warming); and if in the opposite direction, it is a
stabilising negative feedback (e.g. warming causing a cooling effect). If a sufficiently strong net positive feedback
occurs, it is said that a climate tipping point has been passed and the temperature will continue to change until the
changed conditions result in negative feedbacks that restabilise the climate.
An example of a negative feedback is that radiation leaving the Earth increases in proportion to the fourth power of
temperature, in accordance with the Stefan-Boltzmann law. This feedback always operates and is proportional to the
forth power of temperature. Therefore, while it may by overridden by positive feedbacks for comparatively small
temperature changes it will dominate for larger temperature changes. An example of a positive feedback is the
Runaway climate change 386

ice-albedo feedback, in which increasing temperature causes ice to melt, which increases the amount of heat that
Earth absorbs. This feedback only operates in a restricted range of temperatures (those for which ice exists, and does
not cover the whole surface; once all the ice has melted, the feedback ceases to operate).
Climate feedback effects can be from:
• The same cause as the forcing (e.g. rising methane levels causing more methane to be released)
• Another greenhouse gas (e.g. CO2 causing methane release)
• On other variables (e.g. ice-albedo feedback)
Without climate feedbacks, a doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration would result in a global average
temperature increase of around 1.2°C. Water vapor amount and clouds are probably the most important global
climate feedbacks. Historical information and global climate models indicate a climate sensitivity of 1.5 to 4.5°C,
with a best estimate of 3°C. This is an amplification of the carbon dioxide forcing by a factor of 2.5. Some studies
suggest a lower climate sensitivity, but other studies indicate a sensitivity above this range. Partly because of the
difficulty in modeling the cloud feedback, the true climate sensitivity remains uncertain.[14]

Examples
There are known examples of the Earth's climate producing a large response to small forcings; most obviously CO2
feedback effect is believed to be part of the transition between glacial and interglacial periods, with the Milankovitch
cycle providing the initial trigger[15] . This is generally not considered to be a runaway climate change. Another
example would be Dansgaard-Oeschger events.
Potentially unstable methane deposits exists in permafrost regions, which are expected to retreat as a result of global
warming[16] , and also clathrates, with the clathrate effect probably taking millennia to fully act.[17] The potential
role of methane from clathrates in near-future runaway scenarios is not certain, as studies[18] show a slow release of
methane, which may not be regarded as 'runaway' by all commentators. The clathrate gun runaway effect may be
used to describe more rapid methane releases. Methane in the atmosphere has a high global warming potential, but
breaks down relatively quickly to form CO2, which is also a greenhouse gas. Therefore, slow methane release will
have the long-term effect of adding CO2 to the atmosphere.
In order to model clathrates and other reservoirs of greenhouse gases and their precursors, global climate models
would have to be 'coupled' to a carbon cycle model. Some current global climate models do not include such
modelling of methane deposits.
A 2006 book chapter by Cox et al. considers the possibility of a future runaway climate feedback due to changes in
the land carbon cycle:[19]
Here we use a simple land carbon balance model to analyse the conditions required for a land
sink-to-source transition, and address the question; could the land carbon cycle lead to a runaway
climate feedback? [...] The simple land carbon balance model has effective parameters representing the
sensitivities of climate and photosynthesis to CO2, and the sensitivities of soil respiration and
photosynthesis to temperature. This model is used to show that (a) a carbon sink-to-source transition is
inevitable beyond some finite critical CO2 concentration provided a few simple conditions are satisfied,
(b) the value of the critical CO2 concentration is poorly known due to uncertainties in land carbon cycle
parameters and especially in the climate sensitivity to CO2, and (c) that a true runaway land
carbon-climate feedback (or linear instability) in the future is unlikely given that the land masses are
currently acting as a carbon sink.
Runaway climate change 387

Current risk
The scientific consensus in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report[20] is that "Anthropogenic warming could lead to
some effects that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change." Note
however that this statement is about situations weaker than "runaway change".
Estimates of the size of the total carbon reservoir in Arctic permafrost and clathrates vary widely. It is suggested that
at least 900 gigatonnes of carbon in permafrost exists worldwide.[21] Furthermore, there are believed to be another
400 gigatonnes of carbon in methane clathrates in permafrost regions [22] with 10,000 to 11,000 gigatonnes
worldwide.[22] This is large enough that if 10% of the stored methane were released, it would have an effect
equivalent to a factor of 10 increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.[23] Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with
a higher global warming potential than CO2.
Worries about the release of this methane and carbon dioxide is linked to arctic shrinkage. Recent years have seen
record low Arctic sea ice. It has been suggested that rapid melting of the sea ice may initiate a feedback loop that
rapidly melts arctic permafrost.[24] [25] Methane clathrates on the sea-floor have also been predicted to destabilise,
but much more slowly.[22]
A release of methane from clathrates, however, is believed to be slow and chronic rather than catastrophic and that
21st-century effects of such a release are therefore likely to be 'significant but not catastrophic'.[23] It is further noted
that 'much methane from dissociated gas hydrate may never reach the atmosphere',[26] as it can be dissolved into the
ocean and be broken down biologically.[26] Other research[27] demonstrates that a release to the atmosphere can
occur during large releases. These sources suggest that the clathrate gun effect alone will not be sufficient to cause
'catastrophic'[23] climate change within a human lifetime.
James E. Hansen has suggested that the Earth could undergo a transition to a Venus-like state if fossil-fuel use
continues until reserves are exhausted.[28]

Paleoclimatology
Events that could be described as runaway climate change may have occurred in the past.

Clathrate gun
The clathrate gun hypothesis suggests runaway warming due to a massive release of methane gas from methane
clathrates on the seafloor. It has been speculated that the Permian-Triassic extinction event[29] and the
Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum[30] were caused by massive clathrate release.

Snowball Earth
Geological evidence shows that ice-albedo feedback caused sea ice advance to near the equator at several points in
Earth history.[31] Modeling work shows that such an event would indeed be a result of a runaway ice-albedo
effect,[32] and that such a condition could be escaped via the accumulation of CO2 from volcanic outgassing.[33]
Runaway climate change 388

References
[1] Doney, S. C.; Schimel, D. S. (2007). "Carbon and Climate System Coupling on Timescales from the Precambrian to the Anthropocene"
(https:/ / darchive. mblwhoilibrary. org/ bitstream/ 1912/ 1942/ 1/ doney_schimel_arer_revised_final. pdf). Annual Review of Environment and
Resources 32: 31–63. doi:10.1146/annurev.energy.32.041706.124700. .
[2] Archer, D.; Bufett, B. (2005). "Time-dependent response of the global ocean clathrate reservoir to climatic and anthropogenic forcing" (http:/
/ geosci. uchicago. edu/ ~archer/ reprints/ archer. 2005. clathrates. pdf). Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 6 (3): Q03002.
doi:10.1029/2004GC000854. .
[3] Clift, R. (2006). "Sustainable development and its implications for chemical engineering". Chemical Engineering Science 61: 4179–4187.
doi:10.1016/j.ces.2005.10.017.
[4] Tickell, Oliver (2008). Kyoto2: How to Manage the Global Greenhouse. Zed Books Ltd. p. 22. ISBN 1848130252.
[5] James Randerson (2008-09-23). "Arctic 'methane chimneys' raise fears of runaway climate change" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/
environment/ 2008/ sep/ 23/ climatechange. scienceofclimatechange1). Guardian.co.uk. . Retrieved 2009-05-25.
[6] Pope, V. (February 11, 2009). "Scientists must rein in misleading climate change claims" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2009/
feb/ 11/ climate-change-science-pope). guardian.co.uk. . Retrieved August 26, 2009.
[7] Brown, Paul (2006-10-18). "How close is runaway climate change?" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2006/ oct/ 18/
bookextracts. books). Guardian.co.uk. . Retrieved 2009-05-25.
[8] George Monbiot (2008-08-22). "Identity Politics in Climate Change Hell" (http:/ / www. monbiot. com/ archives/ 2008/ 08/ 22/
identity-politics-in-climate-change-hell). Monbiot.com. .
[9] "preventing runaway climate change" (http:/ / www. foe. org. au/ climate-justice/ learning-resources/ taking-action/ Final Climate change A3
flyer. pdf) (PDF). Friends of Earth, Australia. 2007. .
[10] Bruckner, T.; G. Petschel-Held, F.L. Tóth, H.-M. Füssel, C. Helm, M. Leimbach and H.-J. Schellnhuber (1999). "Climate change
decision-support and the tolerable windows approach". Environmental Modeling and Assessment 4 (4): 217–234.
doi:10.1023/A:1019076603956.
[11] Rasool, I.; De Bergh, C.; De Bergh, C. (Jun 1970). "The Runaway Greenhouse and the Accumulation of CO2 in the Venus Atmosphere"
(http:/ / pubs. giss. nasa. gov/ docs/ 1970/ 1970_Rasool_DeBergh. pdf). Nature 226 (5250): 1037. doi:10.1038/2261037a0. ISSN 0028-0836.
PMID 16057644. . Retrieved 02/25/2009.
[12] Kasting, J. F. (1988). "Runaway and moist greenhouse atmospheres and the evolution of Earth and Venus". Icarus 74 (3): 472–494.
Bibcode 1988Icar...74..472K. doi:10.1016/0019-1035(88)90116-9. PMID 11538226.
[13] Hansen, James E. (December 2008). "Climate Threat to the Planet: Implications for Energy Policy and Intergenerational Justice" (http:/ /
www. columbia. edu/ ~jeh1/ 2008/ AGUBjerknes_20081217. pdf) (PDF). pp. 26–39. . Retrieved 2009-02-02.
[14] Committee on the Science of Climate Change, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council (2001). "Climate Change
Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions" (http:/ / www. gcrio. org/ NRC/ NRCclimatechange. html). National Academies Press. pp.
6–7. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[15] Shackleton, N. J. (2000). "The 100,000-Year Ice-Age Cycle Identified and Found to Lag Temperature, Carbon Dioxide, and Orbital
Eccentricity". Science 289 (5486): 1897–1100. doi:10.1126/science.289.5486.1897. PMID 10988063.
[16] Lawrence, D. M.; Slater, A. (2005). "A projection of severe near-surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century". Geophysical
Research Letters 32 (24): L24401. doi:10.1029/2005GL025080.
[17] Buffett, B.; Archer, D. (2004). "Global inventory of methane clathrate: sensitivity to changes in the deep ocean" (http:/ / geosci. uchicago.
edu/ ~archer/ reprints/ buffett. 2004. clathrates. pdf). Earth and Planetary Science Letters 227: 185. Bibcode 2004E&PSL.227..185B.
doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2004.09.005. .
[18] University of California, Santa Barbara (July 19, 2006). "Gas Escaping From Ocean Floor May Drive Global Warming" (http:/ / www. ia.
ucsb. edu/ pa/ display. aspx?pkey=1482). Press release. .
[19] Cox, P.M., C. Huntingford and C.D. Jones. H.J. Schellnhuber, (ed), W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley, and G. Yohe (co-eds) (2006).
"Chapter 15: Conditions for Sink-to-Source Transitions and Runaway Feedbacks from the Land Carbon Cycle. In: Avoiding Dangerous
Climate Change" (http:/ / www. landecon. cam. ac. uk/ research/ eeprg/ 4cmr/ publications/ pdf/ avoid-dangercc. pdf) (PDF). Cambridge
University Press. p. 156. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[20] "Summary for Policymakers" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ syr/ ar4_syr_spm. pdf) (PDF). Climate Change 2007:
Synthesis Report. IPCC. November 17, 2007. .
[21] "Melting permafrost methane emissions: The other threat to climate change" (http:/ / www. terranature. org/ methaneSiberia. htm).
TerraNature. 2006-09-15. .
[22] Macdonald, G. J. (1990). "Role of methane clathrates in past and future climates". Climatic Change 16 (3): 247–243.
doi:10.1007/BF00144504.
[23] Archer, David (2007). "Methane hydrate stability and anthropogenic climate change" (http:/ / geosci. uchicago. edu/ ~archer/ reprints/
archer. 2007. hydrate_rev. pdf) (PDF). Biogeosciences 4: 521–544. doi:10.5194/bg-4-521-2007. . Retrieved 2009-05-25.
[24] Lawrence, D. M.; Slater, A. G.; Tomas, R. A.; Holland, M. M.; Deser, C. (2008). "Accelerated Arctic land warming and permafrost
degradation during rapid sea ice loss" (http:/ / www. cgd. ucar. edu/ ccr/ dlawren/ publications/ lawrence. grl. submit. 2008. pdf). Geophysical
Research Letters 35 (11): L11506. Bibcode 2008GeoRL..3511506L. doi:10.1029/2008GL033985. .
Runaway climate change 389

[25] UCAR (June 10, 2008). "Permafrost Threatened by Rapid Retreat of Arctic Sea Ice, NCAR Study Finds" (http:/ / www. ucar. edu/ news/
releases/ 2008/ permafrost. jsp). Press release. . Retrieved 2009-05-25.
[26] Kvenvolden, Keith A. (March 30, 1999). "Potential effects of gas hydrate on human welfare" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ content/ 96/ 7/ 3420.
full. pdf+ html). PNAS 96 (7): 3420–3426. doi:10.1073/pnas.96.7.3420. PMID 10097052. . Retrieved 2009-05-23.
[27] De Garidel-Thoron, T.; Beaufort, L.; Bassinot, F.; Henry, P. (Jun 2004). "Evidence for large methane releases to the atmosphere from
deep-sea gas-hydrate dissociation during the last glacial episode" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=15197255)
(Free full text). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 101 (25): 9187–9192.
doi:10.1073/pnas.0402909101. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 438951. PMID 15197255. .
[28] Hansen, James (2008-12-17). "Climate Threat to the Planet" (http:/ / www. columbia. edu/ ~jeh1/ 2008/ AGUBjerknes_20081217. pdf)
(PDF). . Retrieved 2009-10-10.
[29] Benton, M. J.; Twitchet, R. J. (2003). "How to kill (almost) all life: the end-Permian extinction event" (http:/ / palaeo. gly. bris. ac. uk/
Benton/ reprints/ 2003TREEPTr. pdf). Trends in Ecology & Evolution 18 (7): 358–365. doi:10.1016/S0169-5347(03)00093-4. .
[30] D.J. Lunt; P.J. Valdes, A. Ridgwell. "Sensitivity to CO2 of the Eocene climate: implications for ocean circulation and clathrate
destabilisation" (http:/ / www. paleo. bris. ac. uk/ ~ggdjl/ conferences/ egu2008_petm. pdf) (PDF). BRIDGE (Bristol Research Initiative for
the Dynamic Global Environment), University of Bristol, UK. .
[31] Hoffman, P. F.; Kaufman, A. J.; Halverson, G. P.; Schrag, D. P. (1998). "A Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth" (http:/ / marine. rutgers. edu/
ebme/ HistoryEarthSystems/ HistEarthSystems_Fall2008/ Week6a/ Hoffman_et_al_Science_1998. pdf). Science 281 (5381): 1342–1346.
doi:10.1126/science.281.5381.1342. PMID 9721097. .
[32] M.I. Budyko (1969). "Effect of solar radiation variation on climate of Earth" (http:/ / www. math. umn. edu/ ~mcgehee/ Seminars/
ClimateChange/ references/ Budyko1969Tellus21p611-Albedo. pdf) (PDF). Tellus 21 (5): 611 – 1969.
doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1969.tb00466.x. .
[33] Kirschvink, Joseph (1992). "Late Proterozoic low-latitude global glaciation: the Snowball Earth". In J. W. Schopf; C. Klein. The Proterozoic
Biosphere: A Multidisciplinary Study. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0521366151.

Current sea level rise


Current sea level rise has occurred at a
mean rate of 1.8 mm per year for the past
century,[1] [2] and more recently, during the
satellite altimetry era of sea level
measurement, at rates in the range of 2.9-3.4
± 0.4-0.6 mm per year from 1993–2010.[3]
[4] [5] [6] [7]
A new assessment suggests that
there has been an observed reduction in the
prior rate of sea level by 2mm/yr from 2005
(a 60% reduction from the 1993 to 2005
rate) to a level of 1mm/yr.[8] Scientific
evidence supports the claim that current sea
level rise is caused by global warming,[9]
which will increase sea level over the Sea level measurements from 23 long tide gauge records in geologically stable
[10] [11] environments show a rise of around 200 millimetres (8 inches) per century, or 2
coming century and longer periods.
mm/year.
Increasing temperatures result in sea level
rise by the thermal expansion of water and
through the addition of water to the oceans from the melting of mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. At the end
of the 20th century, thermal expansion and melting of land ice contributed roughly equally to sea level rise, while
thermal expansion is
Current sea level rise 390

expected to contribute more than half of the


rise in the upcoming century.[12]
Values for predicted sea level rise over the
course of this century typically range from
90 to 880 mm, with a central value of
480 mm. Models of glacier mass balance
(the difference between melting and
accumulation of snow and ice on a glacier)
give a theoretical maximum value for sea
level rise in the current century of 2 metres
(and a "more plausible" one of 0.8 metres),
based on limitations on how quickly glaciers
can melt.[13]
Changes in sea level since the end of the last glacial episode

Overview of sea-level change

Local and eustatic sea level


Local mean sea level (LMSL) is defined as the height of the sea with
respect to a land benchmark, averaged over a period of time (such as a
month or a year) long enough that fluctuations caused by waves and
tides are smoothed out. One must adjust perceived changes in LMSL to
account for vertical movements of the land, which can be of the same
order (mm/yr) as sea level changes. Some land movements occur
because of isostatic adjustment of the mantle to the melting of ice
sheets at the end of the last ice age. The weight of the ice sheet Water cycles between ocean, atmosphere, and
depresses the underlying land, and when the ice melts away the land glaciers.

slowly rebounds. Atmospheric pressure, ocean currents and local ocean


temperature changes also can affect LMSL.

“Eustatic” change (as opposed to local change) results in an alteration to the global sea levels, such as changes in the
volume of water in the world oceans or changes in the volume of an ocean basin.

Short term and periodic changes


There are many factors which can produce short-term (a few minutes to 18.6 years) changes in sea level.

Short-term (periodic) causes Time scale Vertical effect


(P = period)

Periodic sea level changes

Diurnal and semidiurnal astronomical tides 12–24 h P 0.2–10+ m

Long-period tides

Rotational variations (Chandler wobble) 14 month P

Lunar Node astronomical tides 18.613 year

Meteorological and oceanographic fluctuations

Atmospheric pressure Hours to months −0.7 to 1.3 m

Winds (storm surges) 1–5 days Up to 5 m


Current sea level rise 391

Evaporation and precipitation (may also follow long-term pattern) Days to weeks

Ocean surface topography (changes in water density and currents) Days to weeks Up to 1 m

El Niño/southern oscillation 6 mo every 5–10 yr Up to 0.6 m

Seasonal variations

Seasonal water balance among oceans (Atlantic, Pacific, Indian)

Seasonal variations in slope of water surface

River runoff/floods 2 months 1m

Seasonal water density changes (temperature and salinity) 6 months 0.2 m

Seiches

Seiches (standing waves) Minutes to hours Up to 2 m

Earthquakes

Tsunamis (generate catastrophic long-period waves) Hours Up to 10 m

Abrupt change in land level Minutes Up to 10 m

Longer term changes


Various factors affect the volume or mass of the ocean, leading to long-term changes in eustatic sea level. The two
primary influences are temperature (because the density of water depends on temperature), and the mass of water
locked up on land and sea as fresh water in rivers, lakes, glaciers, polar ice caps, and sea ice. Over much longer
geological timescales, changes in the shape of the oceanic basins and in land/sea distribution will affect sea level.
Observational and modelling studies of mass loss from glaciers and ice caps indicate a contribution to sea-level rise
of 0.2 to 0.4 mm/yr averaged over the 20th century.

Glaciers and ice caps


Each year about 8 mm (0.3 inch) of water from the entire surface of the oceans falls into the Antarctica and
Greenland ice sheets as snowfall. If no ice returned to the oceans, sea level would drop 8 mm every year. To a first
approximation, the same amount of water appeared to return to the ocean in icebergs and from ice melting at the
edges. Scientists previously had estimated which is greater, ice going in or coming out, called the mass balance,
important because it causes changes in global sea level. High-precision gravimetry from satellites in low-noise flight
has since determined Greenland is losing millions of tons per year, in accordance with loss estimates from ground
measurement. Some estimates range up to 240 km3 per year in recent years.[14]
Ice shelves float on the surface of the sea and, if they melt, to first order they do not change sea level. Likewise, the
melting of the northern polar ice cap which is composed of floating pack ice would not significantly contribute to
rising sea levels. Because they are fresh, however, their melting would cause a very small increase in sea levels, so
small that it is generally neglected. It can however be argued that if ice shelves melt it is a precursor to the melting of
ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica.
• If small glaciers and polar ice caps on the margins of Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula melt, the projected
rise in sea level will be around 0.5 m. Melting of the Greenland ice sheet would produce 7.2 m of sea-level rise,
and melting of the Antarctic ice sheet would produce 61.1 m of sea level rise.[15] The collapse of the grounded
interior reservoir of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would raise sea level by 5–6 m.[16]
• The interior of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has been (as of 2009) sufficiently high (and therefore cold)
enough that direct melt there cannot cause them to melt in a time-frame less than several millennia; therefore it is
likely that they will not, through melting of the interior, contribute significantly to sea level rise in the coming
century. They can, however, do so through acceleration in flow and enhanced iceberg calving. Also, melt of the
Current sea level rise 392

fringes of the ice caps could be significant, as could be sub-ice-shelf melting in Antarctica.
• Climate changes during the 20th century are estimated from modelling studies to have led to contributions of
between –0.2 and 0.0 mm/yr from Antarctica (the results of increasing precipitation) and 0.0 to 0.1 mm/yr from
Greenland (from changes in both precipitation and runoff).
• Estimates suggest that Greenland and Antarctica have contributed 0.0 to 0.5 mm/yr over the 20th century as a
result of long-term adjustment to the end of the last ice age.
The current rise in sea level observed from tide gauges, of about 1.8 mm/yr, is within the estimate range from the
combination of factors above[17] but active research continues in this field. The terrestrial storage term, thought to be
highly uncertain, is no longer positive, and shown to be quite large.
Since 1992, a number of satellites have been recording the change in sea level;[18] [19] they display an acceleration in
the rate of sea level change, but they have not been operating for long enough to work out whether this is a real
signal, or just an artefact of short-term variation.

Past changes in sea level

The sedimentary record


For generations, geologists have been trying
to explain the obvious cyclicity of
sedimentary deposits observed everywhere
we look. The prevailing theories hold that
this cyclicity primarily represents the
response of depositional processes to the
rise and fall of sea level. In the rock record,
geologists see times when sea level was
astoundingly low alternating with times
when sea level was much higher than today,
and these anomalies often appear
worldwide. For instance, during the depths
of the last ice age 18,000 years ago when Changes in sea level during the last 9,000 years

hundreds of thousands of cubic miles of ice


were stacked up on the continents as glaciers, sea level was 120 m (390 ft) lower, locations that today support coral
reefs were left high and dry, and coastlines were miles farther basinward from the present-day coastline. It was
during this time of very low sea level that there was a dry land connection between Asia and Alaska over which
humans are believed to have migrated to North America (see Bering Land Bridge).

However, for the past 6,000 years (many centuries before the first known written records), the world's sea level has
been gradually approaching the level we see today. During the previous interglacial about 120,000 years ago, sea
level was for a short time about 6 m higher than today, as evidenced by wave-cut notches along cliffs in the
Bahamas. There are also Pleistocene coral reefs left stranded about 3 metres above today's sea level along the
southwestern coastline of West Caicos Island in the West Indies. These once-submerged reefs and nearby
paleo-beach deposits are silent testimony that sea level spent enough time at that higher level to allow the reefs to
grow (exactly where this extra sea water came from—Antarctica or Greenland—has not yet been determined).
Similar evidence of geologically recent sea level positions is abundant around the world.
Current sea level rise 393

Estimates
See IPCC TAR (Third Assessment Report), figure 11.4 for a graph of sea level changes over the past 140,000
years.[20]
• The 2007 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report suggested that sea levels would rise by
between 190 mm (7.5 inches) and 590 mm by the end of this century.[21]
• Sea level rise estimates from satellite altimetry since 1993 are in the range of 2.9-3.4 mm/yr.[3] [4] [5] [6] [7]
• Church and White (2006) report an acceleration of SLR since 1870.[2] This is a revision since 2001, when the
TAR stated that measurements have detected no significant acceleration in the recent rate of sea level rise.
• Based on tide gauge data, the rate of global average sea level rise during the 20th century lies in the range 0.8 to
3.3 mm/yr, with an average rate of 1.8 mm/yr.[22]
• Recent studies of Roman wells in Caesarea and of Roman piscinae in Italy indicate that sea level stayed fairly
constant from a few hundred years AD to a few hundred years ago.
• Based on geological data, global average sea level may have risen at an average rate of about 0.5 mm/yr over the
last 6,000 years and at an average rate of 0.1 to 0.2 mm/yr over the last 3,000 years.
• Since the Last Glacial Maximum about 20,000 years ago, sea level has risen by over 120 m (averaging 6 mm/yr)
as a result of melting of major ice sheets. A rapid rise took place between 15,000 and 6,000 years ago at an
average rate of 10 mm/yr which accounted for 90 m of the rise; thus in the period since 20,000 years BP
(excluding the rapid rise from 15-6 kyr BP) the average rate was 3 mm/yr.
• A significant event was Meltwater pulse 1A (mwp-1A), when sea level rose approximately 20 m over a 500 year
period about 14,200 years ago. This is a rate of about 40 mm/yr. Recent studies suggest the primary source was
meltwater from the Antarctic, perhaps causing the south-to-north cold pulse marked by the Southern Hemisphere
Huelmo/Mascardi Cold Reversal, which preceded the Northern Hemisphere Younger Dryas
• Relative sea level rise at specific locations is often 1–2 mm/yr greater or less than the global average. Along the
US mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, for example, sea level is rising approximately 3 mm/yr

U. S. Tide Gauge Measurements


Tide gauges in the United States show considerable variation
because some land areas are rising and some are sinking. For
example, over the past 100 years, the rate of sea level rise varies
from about an increase of 0.36 inches (9.1 mm) per year along the
Louisiana Coast (due to land sinking), to a drop of a few inches
per decade in parts of Alaska (due to post-glacial rebound). The
rate of sea level rise increased during the 1993-2003 period
compared with the longer-term average (1961–2003), although it
is unclear whether the faster rate reflects a short-term variation or
an increase in the long-term trend.[23]

One study shows there has been no acceleration in sea level rise in
U.S. tide gauge records during the 20th century.[24]

Amsterdam Sea Level Measurements


The longest running sea-level measurements are recorded at
Amsterdam, in the Netherlands—part of which (about 25%) lies U. S. Sea Level Trends 1900-2003
beneath sea level. Records from 1700 onwards can be found at
http:/ / www. pol. ac. uk/ psmsl/ longrecords/ longrecords. html. Since 1850, a rise of approx 1.5 mm/year is shown
here.
Current sea level rise 394

Australian Sea Level Change


A 2003 study published in the International Hydrological Review used 160 year-old records in the archives of the
Royal Society, London, to establish a rate of sea level rise of about 1mm a year. The study compared records taken
by an amateur meteorologist at the Port Arthur convict settlement 160 years ago with data recorded by modern tide
gauges.[25]
The National Tidal Center of the Bureau of Meteorology manages 32 tide gauges, some with records since 1880, for
the entire coastline.[26]
The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) is the national government body for
scientific research in Australia, their data shows the current sea level trend to be 3.2 mm/yr[27] and the historical
increase since 1870 to have been an average of 1.7mm/year[28]

Future sea level rise


In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) predicted that by 2100,
global warming will lead to a sea level rise of 180 to 590 mm,[29] depending on which of six possible world
scenarios comes to pass, and barring rapid dynamical changes in ice flow.[30] More recent research, which has
observed rapid declines in ice mass balance from both Greenland and Antarctica, finds that sea-level rise by 2100 is
likely to be at least twice as large as that presented by IPCC AR4, with an upper limit of about two meters.[31]
These sea level rises could lead to potentially catastrophic difficulties for shore-based communities in the next
centuries: for example, many major cities such as London and New Orleans already need storm-surge defenses, and
would need more if sea level rose, though they also face issues such as sinking land.[32] Sea level rise could also
displace many shore-based populations: for example it is estimated that a sea level rise of just 200 mm could create
740,000 homeless people in Nigeria.[33] Maldives, Tuvalu, and other low-lying countries are among the areas that
are at the highest level of risk. The UN's environmental panel has warned that, at current rates, sea level would be
high enough to make the Maldives uninhabitable by 2100.[34] [35]
Future sea level rise, like the recent rise, is not expected to be globally uniform (details below). Some regions show a
sea-level rise substantially more than the global average (in many cases of more than twice the average), and others a
sea level fall.[36] However, models disagree as to the likely pattern of sea level change.[37]
In September 2008, the Delta Commission presided by Dutch politician Cees Veerman advised in a report that The
Netherlands would need a massive new building program to strengthen the country's water defenses against the
anticipated effects of global warming for the next 190 years. This commission was created in September 2007, after
the damage caused by Hurricane Katrina prompted reflection and preparations. Those included drawing up
worst-case plans for evacuations. The plan included more than €100 billion, or $144 billion, in new spending
through the year 2100 to take measures, such as broadening coastal dunes and strengthening sea and river dikes.
The commission said the country must plan for a rise in the North Sea up to 4.25 feet (1.3 meters) by 2100, rather
than the previously projected 30 inches (0.80 meters), and plan for a 6.5–13 foot rise by 2200.[38]

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change results


The results from the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) sea level chapter (convening authors John A. Church
and Jonathan M. Gregory) are given below.
Current sea level rise 395

IPCC change factors 1990-2100 IS92a prediction SRES prediction

Thermal expansion 110 to 430 mm

Glaciers [39]
10 to 230 mm
[40]
(or 50 to 110 mm)

Greenland ice –20 to 90 mm

Antarctic ice –170 to 20 mm

Terrestrial storage –83 to 30 mm

Ongoing contributions from ice sheets in response to past climate change 0 to 55 mm

Thawing of permafrost 0 to 5 mm

Deposition of sediment not specified

110 to 770 mm 90 to 880 mm


Total global-average sea level rise
[39] (central value of 480 mm)
(IPCC result, not sum of above)

The sum of these components indicates a rate of eustatic sea level rise (corresponding to a change in ocean volume)
from 1910 to 1990 ranging from –0.8 to 2.2 mm/yr, with a central value of 0.7 mm/yr. The upper bound is close to
the observational upper bound (2.0 mm/yr), but the central value is less than the observational lower bound
(1.0 mm/yr), i.e., the sum of components is biased low compared to the observational estimates. The sum of
components indicates an acceleration of only 0.2 (mm/yr)/century, with a range from –1.1 to +0.7 (mm/yr)/century,
consistent with observational finding of no acceleration in sea level rise during the 20th century. The estimated rate
of sea-level rise from anthropogenic climate change from 1910 to 1990 (from modeling studies of thermal
expansion, glaciers and ice sheets) ranges from 0.3 to 0.8 mm/yr. It is very likely that 20th century warming has
contributed significantly to the observed sea-level rise, through thermal expansion of sea water and widespread loss
of land ice.[39]
A common perception is that the rate of sea-level rise should have accelerated during the latter half of the 20th
century, but tide gauge data for the 20th century show no significant acceleration. Estimates obtained are based on
AOGCMs for the terms directly related to anthropogenic climate change in the 20th century, i.e., thermal expansion,
ice sheets, glaciers and ice caps... The total computed rise indicates an acceleration of only 0.2 (mm/yr)/century, with
a range from -1.1 to +0.7 (mm/yr)/century, consistent with observational finding of no acceleration in sea-level rise
during the 20th century.[41] The sum of terms not related to recent climate change is -1.1 to +0.9 mm/yr (i.e.,
excluding thermal expansion, glaciers and ice caps, and changes in the ice sheets due to 20th century climate
change). This range is less than the observational lower bound of sea level rise. Hence it is very likely that these
terms alone are an insufficient explanation, implying that 20th century climate change has made a contribution to
20th century sea level rise.[17] Recent figures of human, terrestrial impoundment came too late for the 3rd Report,
and would revise levels upward for much of the 20th century.

Minority uncertainties and criticisms regarding IPCC results


• Tide records with a rate of 180 mm/century going back to the 19th century show no measurable acceleration
throughout the late 19th and first half of the 20th century. The IPCC attributes about 60 mm/century to melting
and other eustatic processes, leaving a residual of 120 mm of 20th century rise to be accounted for. Global ocean
temperatures by Levitus et al. are in accord with coupled ocean/atmosphere modelling of greenhouse warming,
with heat-related change of 30 mm. Melting of polar ice sheets at the upper limit of the IPCC estimates could
close the gap, but severe limits are imposed by the observed perturbations in Earth rotation. (Munk 2002)
• By the time of the IPCC TAR, attribution of sea-level changes had a large unexplained gap between direct and
indirect estimates of global sea-level rise. Most direct estimates from tide gauges give 1.5–2.0 mm/yr, whereas
indirect estimates based on the two processes responsible for global sea-level rise, namely mass and volume
Current sea level rise 396

change, are significantly below this range. Estimates of the volume increase due to ocean warming give a rate of
about 0.5 mm/yr and the rate due to mass increase, primarily from the melting of continental ice, is thought to be
even smaller. One study confirmed tide gauge data is correct, and concluded there must be a continental source of
1.4 mm/yr of fresh water. (Miller 2004)
• From (Douglas 2002): "In the last dozen years, published values of 20th century GSL rise have ranged from 1.0 to
2.4 mm/yr. In its Third Assessment Report, the IPCC discusses this lack of consensus at length and is careful not
to present a best estimate of 20th century GSL rise. By design, the panel presents a snapshot of published analysis
over the previous decade or so and interprets the broad range of estimates as reflecting the uncertainty of our
knowledge of GSL rise. We disagree with the IPCC interpretation. In our view, values much below 2 mm/yr are
inconsistent with regional observations of sea-level rise and with the continuing physical response of Earth to the
most recent episode of deglaciation."
• The strong 1997-1998 El Niño caused regional and global sea level variations, including a temporary global
increase of perhaps 20 mm. The IPCC TAR's examination of satellite trends says the major 1997/98 El
Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event could bias the above estimates of sea-level rise and also indicate the
difficulty of separating long-term trends from climatic variability.[41]

Glacier contribution
It is well known that glaciers are subject to surges in their rate of movement with consequent melting when they
reach lower altitudes and/or the sea. The contributors to Annals of Glaciology [42], Volume 36 [43] (2003) discussed
this phenomenon extensively and it appears that slow advance and rapid retreat have persisted throughout the mid to
late Holocene in nearly all of Alaska's glaciers. Historical reports of surge occurrences in Iceland's glaciers go back
several centuries. Thus rapid retreat can have several other causes than CO2 increase in the atmosphere.
The results from Dyurgerov show a sharp increase in the contribution of mountain and subpolar glaciers to sea level
rise since 1996 (0.5 mm/yr) to 1998 (2 mm/yr) with an average of approx. 0.35 mm/yr since 1960.[44]
Of interest also is Arendt et al.,[45] who estimate the contribution of Alaskan glaciers of 0.14±0.04 mm/yr between
the mid 1950s to the mid 1990s increasing to 0.27 mm/yr in the middle and late 1990s.

Greenland contribution
Krabill et al.[46] estimate a net contribution from Greenland to be at least 0.13 mm/yr in the 1990s. Joughin et al.[47]
have measured a doubling of the speed of Jakobshavn Isbræ between 1997 and 2003. This is Greenland's largest
outlet glacier; it drains 6.5% of the ice sheet, and is thought to be responsible for increasing the rate of sea level rise
by about 0.06 millimetres per year, or roughly 4% of the 20th century rate of sea level increase.[48] In 2004, Rignot
et al.[49] estimated a contribution of 0.04±0.01 mm/yr to sea level rise from southeast Greenland.
Rignot and Kanagaratnam[50] produced a comprehensive study and map of the outlet glaciers and basins of
Greenland. They found widespread glacial acceleration below 66 N in 1996 which spread to 70 N by 2005; and that
the ice sheet loss rate in that decade increased from 90 to 200 cubic km/yr; this corresponds to an extra 0.25 to
0.55 mm/yr of sea level rise.
In July 2005 it was reported[51] that the Kangerdlugssuaq glacier, on Greenland's east coast, was moving towards the
sea three times faster than a decade earlier. Kangerdlugssuaq is around 1,000 m thick, 7.2 km (4.5 miles) wide, and
drains about 4% of the ice from the Greenland ice sheet. Measurements of Kangerdlugssuaq in 1988 and 1996
showed it moving at between 5 and 6 km/yr (3.1 to 3.7 miles/yr) (in 2005 it was moving at 14 km/yr [8.7 miles/yr]).
According to the 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, climate models project that local warming in Greenland
will exceed 3° Celsius during this century. Also, ice sheet models project that such a warming would initiate the
long-term melting of the ice sheet, leading to a complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet over several millennia,
resulting in a global sea level rise of about seven metres.[52]
Current sea level rise 397

Antarctic contribution
On the Antarctic continent itself, the large volume of ice present stores around 70 % of the world's fresh water.[53]
This ice sheet is constantly gaining ice from snowfall and losing ice through outflow to the sea. West Antarctica is
currently experiencing a net outflow of glacial ice, which will increase global sea level over time. A review of the
scientific studies looking at data from 1992 to 2006 suggested a net loss of around 50 Gigatonnes of ice per year was
a reasonable estimate (around 0.14 mm of sea level rise),[54] although significant acceleration of outflow glaciers in
the Amundsen Sea Embayment could have more than doubled this figure for the year 2006.[55]
East Antarctica is a cold region with a ground base above sea level and occupies most of the continent. This area is
dominated by small accumulations of snowfall which becomes ice and thus eventually seaward glacial flows. The
mass balance of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet as a whole is thought to be slightly positive (lowering sea level) or near
to balance.[54] [55] However, increased ice outflow has been suggested in some regions.[55] [56]

Effects of snowline and permafrost


The snowline altitude is the altitude of the lowest elevation interval in which minimum annual snow cover exceeds
50%. This ranges from about 5,500 metres above sea-level at the equator down to sea-level at about 65° N&S
latitude, depending on regional temperature amelioration effects. Permafrost then appears at sea-level and extends
deeper below sea-level pole-wards. The depth of permafrost and the height of the ice-fields in both Greenland and
Antarctica means that they are largely invulnerable to rapid melting. Greenland Summit is at 3,200 metres, where the
average annual temperature is minus 32 °C. So even a projected 4 °C rise in temperature leaves it well below the
melting point of ice. Frozen Ground 28, December 2004, has a very significant map of permafrost affected areas in
the Arctic. The continuous permafrost zone includes all of Greenland, the North of Labrador, NW Territories, Alaska
north of Fairbanks, and most of NE Siberia north of Mongolia and Kamchatka. Continental ice above permafrost is
very unlikely to melt quickly. As most of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets lie above the snowline and/or base
of the permafrost zone, they cannot melt in a timeframe much less than several millennia; therefore they are unlikely
to contribute significantly to sea-level rise in the coming century.

Polar ice
The sea level will rise above its current level if more polar ice melts. However, compared to the heights of the ice
ages, today there are very few continental ice sheets remaining to be melted. It is estimated that Antarctica, if fully
melted, would contribute more than 60 metres of sea level rise, and Greenland would contribute more than 7 metres.
Small glaciers and ice caps on the margins of Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula might contribute about 0.5
metres. While the latter figure is much smaller than for Antarctica or Greenland it could occur relatively quickly
(within the coming century) whereas melting of Greenland would be slow (perhaps 1,500 years to fully deglaciate at
the fastest likely rate) and Antarctica even slower.[15] However, this calculation does not account for the possibility
that as meltwater flows under and lubricates the larger ice sheets, they could begin to move much more rapidly
towards the sea.[57] [58]
In 2002, Rignot and Thomas[59] found that the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets were losing mass, while the
East Antarctic ice sheet was probably in balance (although they could not determine the sign of the mass balance for
The East Antarctic ice sheet). Kwok and Comiso (J. Climate, v15, 487-501, 2002) also discovered that temperature
and pressure anomalies around West Antarctica and on the other side of the Antarctic Peninsula correlate with recent
Southern Oscillation events.
In 2004 Rignot et al.[49] estimated a contribution of 0.04±0.01 mm/yr to sea level rise from South East Greenland. In
the same year, Thomas et al.[60] found evidence of an accelerated contribution to sea level rise from West Antarctica.
The data showed that the Amundsen Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet was discharging 250 cubic
kilometres of ice every year, which was 60% more than precipitation accumulation in the catchment areas. This
Current sea level rise 398

alone was sufficient to raise sea level at 0.24 mm/yr. Further, thinning rates for the glaciers studied in 2002-2003 had
increased over the values measured in the early 1990s. The bedrock underlying the glaciers was found to be
hundreds of metres deeper than previously known, indicating exit routes for ice from further inland in the Byrd
Subpolar Basin. Thus the West Antarctic ice sheet may not be as stable as has been supposed.
In 2005 it was reported that during 1992-2003, East Antarctica thickened at an average rate of about 18 mm/yr while
West Antarctica showed an overall thinning of 9 mm/yr. associated with increased precipitation. A gain of this
magnitude is enough to slow sea-level rise by 0.12±0.02 mm/yr.[61]

Effects of sea level rise


Based on the projected increases stated above, the IPCC TAR WG II report notes that current and future climate
change would be expected to have a number of impacts, particularly on coastal systems.[62] Such impacts may
include increased coastal erosion, higher storm-surge flooding, inhibition of primary production processes, more
extensive coastal inundation, changes in surface water quality and groundwater characteristics, increased loss of
property and coastal habitats, increased flood risk and potential loss of life, loss of nonmonetary cultural resources
and values, impacts on agriculture and aquaculture through decline in soil and water quality, and loss of tourism,
recreation, and transportation functions.
There is an implication that many of these impacts will be detrimental—especially for the three-quarters of the
world's poor who depend on agriculture systems.[63] The report does, however, note that owing to the great diversity
of coastal environments; regional and local differences in projected relative sea level and climate changes; and
differences in the resilience and adaptive capacity of ecosystems, sectors, and countries, the impacts will be highly
variable in time and space.
Statistical data on the human impact of sea level rise is scarce. A study in the April, 2007 issue of Environment and
Urbanization reports that 634 million people live in coastal areas within 30 feet (9.1 m) of sea level. The study also
reported that about two thirds of the world's cities with over five million people are located in these low-lying coastal
areas. The IPCC report of 2007 estimated that accelerated melting of the Himalayan ice caps and the resulting rise in
sea levels would likely increase the severity of flooding in the short term during the rainy season and greatly magnify
the impact of tidal storm surges during the cyclone season. A sea-level rise of just 400 mm in the Bay of Bengal
would put 11 percent of the Bangladesh's coastal land underwater, creating 7 to 10 million climate refugees.

Island nations
IPCC assessments suggest that deltas and small island states are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise caused by
both thermal expansion and ocean volume. Relative sea level rise (mostly caused by subsidence) is currently causing
substantial loss of lands in some deltas.[64] Sea level changes have not yet been conclusively proven to have directly
resulted in environmental, humanitarian, or economic losses to small island states, but the IPCC and other bodies
have found this a serious risk scenario in coming decades.[65]
Many media reports have focused the island nations of the Pacific, notably the Polynesian islands of Tuvalu, which
based on more severe flooding events in recent years, was thought to be "sinking" due to sea level rise.[66] A
scientific review in 2000 reported that based on University of Hawaii gauge data, Tuvalu had experienced a
negligible increase in sea-level of 0.07 mm a year over the past two decades, and that ENSO had been a larger factor
in Tuvalu's higher tides in recent years.[67] A subsequent study by John Hunter from the University of Tasmania,
however, adjusted for ENSO effects and the movement of the gauge (which was thought to be sinking). Hunter
concluded that Tuvalu had been experiencing sea-level rise of about 1.2 mm per year.[67] [68] The recent more
frequent flooding in Tuvalu may also be due to an erosional loss of land during and following the actions of 1997
cyclones Gavin, Hina, and Keli.[69]
Numerous options have been proposed that would assist island nations to adapt to rising sea level.[70]
Current sea level rise 399

Satellite sea level measurement

Satellite Measurement of Sea Level.

1993-2010 Sea level trends from satellite altimetry.

Current rates of sea level rise from satellite altimetry have been estimated in the range of 2.9-3.4 ± 0.4-0.6 mm per
year for 1993-2010.[3] [4] [5] [6] [7] This exceeds those from tide gauges. It is unclear whether this represents an
increase over the last decades; variability; true differences between satellites and tide gauges; or problems with
satellite calibration.[41] Knowing the current altitude of a satellite which can measure sea level to a precision of about
20 millimetres (e.g. the Topex/Poseidon system) is primarily complicated by orbital decay and the difference
between the assumed orbit and the earth geoid .[71] This problem is partially corrected by regular re-calibration of
satellite altimeters from land stations whose height from MSL is known by surveying. Over water, the height is
calibrated from tide gauge data which is needed to correct for tides and atmospheric effects on sea level.

Notes
[1] Bruce C. Douglas (1997). "Global Sea Rise: A Redetermination". Surveys in Geophysics 18: 279–292. doi:10.1023/A:1006544227856.
[2] Church, John; White, Neil (January 6, 2006). "A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/
2006/ 2005GL024826. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 33: L01602. Bibcode 2006GeoRL..3301602C. doi:10.1029/2005GL024826.
L01602. . Retrieved 2010-05-17 pdf is here (http:/ / www. pol. ac. uk/ psmsl/ author_archive/ church_white/
GRL_Church_White_2006_024826. pdf)
[3] Nerem, R. S. et al. (2010). "Estimating Mean Sea Level Change from the TOPEX and Jason Altimeter Missions". Marine Geodesy 33:
435–446. doi:10.1080/01490419.2010.491031.
[4] "CU Global Mean Sea Level Estimate" (http:/ / sealevel. colorado. edu). University of Colorado. . Retrieved 2011-02-10.
[5] "AVISO Global Mean Sea Level Estimate" (http:/ / www. aviso. oceanobs. com/ en/ news/ ocean-indicators/ mean-sea-level/ index. html).
CNES/CLS. . Retrieved 2011-02-10.
[6] "CSIRO Global Mean Sea Level Estimate" (http:/ / www. cmar. csiro. au/ sealevel/ sl_hist_last_15. html). CSIRO. . Retrieved 2011-02-10.
[7] "NOAA Global Sea Level Estimate" (http:/ / ibis. grdl. noaa. gov/ SAT/ SeaLevelRise/ LSA_SLR_timeseries_global. php). NOAA. .
Retrieved 2011-02-10.
[8] Ablain, M.; A. Cazenave, G. Valladeau, S. Guinehut (17 June 2009). "A new assessment of the error budget of global mean sea level rate
estimated by satellite altimetry over 1993–2008" (http:/ / www. ocean-sci. net/ 5/ 193/ 2009/ os-5-193-2009. pdf). Ocean Science 5: 193–201.
doi:10.5194/os-5-193-2009. .
[9] Bindoff, N.L.; Willebrand, J.; Artale, V.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.; Gulev, S.; Hanawa, K.; Le Quéré, C. et al. (2007). "Observations:
Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter5. pdf). In Solomon, S.;
Qin, D.; Manning, M. et al.. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. .
[10] Meehl, G.A., T.F. Stocker, W.D. Collins, P. Friedlingstein, A.T. Gaye, J.M. Gregory, A. Kitoh, R. Knutti, J.M. Murphy, A. Noda, S.C.B.
Raper,, I.G. Watterson, A.J. Weaver and Z.-C. Zhao, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate, Change 2007: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S.,D.
Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Projections of Global Average Sea Level Change for the 21st Century Chapter 10, p 820
[11] http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter10. pdf
Current sea level rise 400

[12] "IPCC AR4 Chapter 5" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter5. pdf). IPCC. 2007. pp. 409. . Retrieved
13 February 2010.
[13] Pfeffer, Wt; Harper, Jt; O'Neel, S (Sep 2008). "Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st-century sea-level rise.". Science (New
York, N.Y.) 321 (5894): 1340–3. doi:10.1126/science.1159099. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 18772435.
[14] Yale Environment 360, quoting Danish Meteorological Institute (http:/ / e360. yale. edu/ content/ digest. msp?id=2035)
[15] "Some physical characteristics of ice on Earth" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 412. htm#tab113). Climate Change 2001:
The Scientific Basis. .
[16] Geologic Contral on Fast Ice Flow - West Antarctic Ice Sheet (http:/ / www. ldeo. columbia. edu/ ~mstuding/ wais. html)
[17] "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 428. htm). . Retrieved 2005-12-19.
[18] "Ocean Surface Topography from Space" (http:/ / topex-www. jpl. nasa. gov/ mission/ topex. html). NASA/JPL. .
[19] "Ocean Surface Topography from Space" (http:/ / sealevel. jpl. nasa. gov/ mission/ jason-1. html). NASA/JPL. .
[20] "IPCC TAR, figure 11.4" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig11-4. htm). . Retrieved 2005-12-19.
[21] Americas on alert for sea level rise (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ americas/ 7977263. stm)
[22] "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 422. htm#tab119). . Retrieved 2005-12-19.
[23] U. S. Environmental Protection Agency "Sea Level Changes" (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ climatechange/ science/ recentslc. html)
[24] Houston, J.R.; R.G. Dean (23 February 2011). "Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and" (http:/ / www. jcronline. org/ doi/
pdf/ 10. 2112/ JCOASTRES-D-10-00157. 1). Journal of Coastal Research. .
[25] CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (2003-01-23). "Landmark study confirms rising Australian sea level" (http:/ / www. cmar. csiro.
au/ news/ media/ archive/ 03releases/ 21jan03. htm). Press release. . Retrieved 2010-12-18.
[26] National Tidal Centre (2003). "Australian Mean Sea Level Survey" (http:/ / www. environment. gov. au/ soe/ 2006/ publications/ drs/ pubs/
366/ co/ co_03_aust_mean_sea_level_survey_2003. pdf). Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. . Retrieved 2010-12-18.
[27] AUSTRALIAN SEA LEVEL RISE (http:/ / www. cmar. csiro. au/ sealevel/ sl_hist_last_15. html)
[28] AUSTRALIAN HISTORICAL SEA LEVEL RISE (http:/ / www. cmar. csiro. au/ sealevel/ sl_hist_few_hundred. html)
[29] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007). "Coastal Systems and Low-lying Areas, Table 6.3" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/
assessment-report/ ar4/ wg2/ ar4-wg2-chapter6. pdf) (pdf). Coastal Systems and Low-lying Areas. . Retrieved 2009-07-27.
[30] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007). "Projected global average surface warming and sea level rise at the end of the 21st
century, Table SPM.3" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-spm. pdf) (pdf). Projected global average surface
warming and sea level rise at the end of the 21st century.. . Retrieved 2009-12-22.
[31] I. Allison, N.L. Bindoff, R.A. Bindschadler, P.M. Cox, N. de Noblet, M.H. England, J.E. Francis, N. Gruber, A.M. Haywood, D.J. Karoly,
G. Kaser, C. Le Quéré, T.M. Lenton, M.E. Mann, B.I. McNeil, A.J. Pitman, S. Rahmstorf, E. Rignot, H.J. Schellnhuber, S.H. Schneider, S.C.
Sherwood, R.C.J. Somerville, K. Steffen, E.J. Steig, M. Visbeck, A.J. Weaver (2009). "Copenhagen Diagnosis" (http:/ / www.
copenhagendiagnosis. org/ read/ default. html). The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science. .
Retrieved 2009-12-22.
[32] Church, J.A. and J.M. Gregory. "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ index. htm). .
Retrieved 2005-12-19.
[33] Klaus Paehler. "Nigeria in the Dilemma of Climate Change" (http:/ / www. kas. de/ proj/ home/ pub/ 33/ 2/ dokument_id-11468/ index.
html). . Retrieved 2008-11-04.,
[34] Megan Angelo (1 May 2009). "Honey, I Sunk the Maldives: Environmental changes could wipe out some of the world's most well-known
travel destinations" (http:/ / travel. yahoo. com/
p-interests-27384279;_ylc=X3oDMTFxcWIyczFpBF9TAzI3MTYxNDkEX3MDMjcxOTQ4MQRzZWMDZnAtdG9kYXltb2QEc2xrA21hbGRpdmVzLTQtMjgtM
.
[35] Kristina Stefanova (19 April 2009). "Climate refugees in Pacific flee rising sea" (http:/ / www. washingtontimes. com/ news/ 2009/ apr/ 19/
rising-sea-levels-in-pacific-create-wave-of-migran/ ). .
[36] "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 432. htm). . Retrieved 2005-12-19.
[37] "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig11-13. htm). . Retrieved 2005-12-19.
[38] "Dutch draw up drastic measures to defend coast against rising seas" (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2008/ 09/ 03/ news/ 03iht-03dutch.
15877468. html)
[39] "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 409. htm). . Retrieved 2005-12-19.
[40] "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 434. htm#11542). . Retrieved 2005-12-19.
[41] "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 426. htm#fig1110). . Retrieved 2005-12-19.
[42] http:/ / www. igsoc. org/ annals/
[43] http:/ / www. igsoc. org/ annals/ 36/
[44] Dyurgerov, Mark. 2002. Glacier Mass Balance and Regime: Data of Measurements and Analysis. INSTAAR Occasional Paper No. 55, ed.
M. Meier and R. Armstrong. Boulder, CO: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado. Distributed by National Snow and
Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO. A shorter discussion is at (http:/ / nsidc. org/ sotc/ sea_level. html)
[45] Arendt, AA; et al. (July 2002). "Rapid Wastage of Alaska Glaciers and Their Contribution to Rising Sea Level". Science 297 (5580):
382–386. doi:10.1126/science.1072497. PMID 12130781.
[46] Krabill, W; et al. (21 July 2000). "Greenland Ice Sheet: High-Elevation Balance and Peripheral Thinning". Science 289 (5478): 428–430.
doi:10.1126/science.289.5478.428. PMID 10903198.
Current sea level rise 401

[47] Joughin, I; et al. (December 2004). "Large fluctuations in speed on Greenland's Jakobshavn Isbræ glacier". Nature 432 (7017): 608–610.
doi:10.1038/nature03130. PMID 15577906.
[48] Report shows movement of glacier has doubled speed | SpaceRef - Your Space Reference (http:/ / www. spaceref. com/ news/ viewpr.
html?pid=15611)
[49] Rignot, E.; et al. (2004). "Rapid ice discharge from southeast Greenland glaciers". Geophysical Research Letters 31: L10401.
Bibcode 2004GeoRL..3110401R. doi:10.1029/2004GL019474.
[50] Rignot, E; Kanagaratnam (2006). "Changes in the Velocity Structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/
content/ abstract/ 311/ 5763/ 986?maxtoshow=& HITS=10& hits=10& RESULTFORMAT=& fulltext=luckman&
searchid=1140284328766_4322& FIRSTINDEX=0& journalcode=sci). Science 311 (5763): 986 et seq.. doi:10.1126/science.1121381.
PMID 16484490. .
[51] Connor, Steve (2005-07-25). "Melting Greenland glacier may hasten rise in sea level" (http:/ / news. independent. co. uk/ world/
environment/ article301493. ece). The Independent (London). . Retrieved 2010-04-30.
[52] http:/ / www. metoffice. gov. uk/ corporate/ pressoffice/ adcc/ BookCh4Jan2006. pdf
[53] "How Stuff Works: polar ice caps" (http:/ / science. howstuffworks. com/ question473. htm). howstuffworks.com. . Retrieved 2006-02-12.
[54] Shepherd A., Wingham D, (2007). "Recent sea-level contributions of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets". Science 315 (5818):
1529–1532. doi:10.1126/science.1136776. PMID 17363663.
[55] Rignot E., Bamber J.L., van den Broeke, M.R., Davis C., Li Y., van de Berg W.J., van Meijgaard E. (2008). "Recent Antarctic ice mass loss
from radar interferometry and regional climate modelling". Nature Geoscience 1: 106–110. doi:10.1038/ngeo102.
[56] Chen, J.L., Wilson C.R., Tapley B.D., Blankenship D., Young D. (2007). "Antarctic regional ice loss rates from GRACE". Earth and
Planetary Science Letters 266: 140–148. Bibcode 2008E&PSL.266..140C. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2007.10.057.
[57] Zwally H.J. et al. (2002). "Surface Melt-Induced Acceleration of Greenland Ice-Sheet Flow" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/
abstract/ 297/ 5579/ 218). Science 297 (5579): 218–222. doi:10.1126/science.1072708. PMID 12052902. .
[58] "Greenland Ice Sheet flows faster during summer melting" (http:/ / www. gsfc. nasa. gov/ topstory/ 20020606greenland. html). Goddard
Space Flight Center (press release). 2006-06-02. .
[59] Rignot, E; Thomas (2002). "Mass Balance of Polar Ice Sheets". Science 297 (5586): 1502–1506. doi:10.1126/science.1073888.
PMID 12202817.
[60] Thomas, R; et al. (2004). "Accelerated Sea-Level Rise from West Antarctica". Science 306 (5694): 255–258. doi:10.1126/science.1099650.
PMID 15388895.
[61] Davis, Curt H.; Yonghong Li, Joseph R. McConnell, Markus M. Frey, Edward Hanna (24 June 2005). "Snowfall-Driven Growth in East
Antarctic Ice Sheet Mitigates Recent Sea-Level Rise". Science 308 (5730): 1898–1901. doi:10.1126/science.1110662. PMID 15905362.
[62] "Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg2/ 292. htm). . Retrieved
2005-12-19.
[63] "Climate Shocks: Risk and Vulnerability in an Unequal World." Human Development report 2007/2008.
hdr.undp.org/media/hdr_20072008_summary_english.pdf
[64] Tidwell, Mike (2006). The Ravaging Tide: Strange Weather, Future Katrinas, and the Coming Death of America's Coastal Cities. Free
Press. ISBN 0-7432-9470-X.
[65] The Future Oceans - Warming Up, Rising High, Turning Sour (http:/ / www. wbgu. de/ wbgu_sn2006_en. pdf)
[66] Levine, Mark (December 2002). "Tuvalu Toodle-oo" (http:/ / outside. away. com/ outside/ features/ 200212/ 200212_tuvalu_1. html).
Outside Magazine. . Retrieved 2005-12-19.
[67] Patel, Samir S. (April 5, 2006). "A Sinking Feeling" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v440/ n7085/ full/ 440734a. html). Nature. .
Retrieved 2007-11-15.
[68] Hunter, J.A. (August 12, 2002). "A Note on Relative Sea Level Rise at Funafuti, Tuvalu" (http:/ / staff. acecrc. org. au/ ~johunter/ tuvalu.
pdf) (PDF). .
[69] Field, Michael J. (December 2001). "Sea Levels Are Rising" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20051218040610/ http:/ / www. pacificislands.
cc/ pm122001/ pmdefault. php?urlarticleid=0009). Pacific Magazine. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. pacificislands. cc/ pm122001/
pmdefault. php?urlarticleid=0009) on 2005-12-18. . Retrieved 2005-12-19.
[70] "Policy Implications of Sea Level Rise: The Case of the Maldives." (http:/ / papers. risingsea. net/ Maldives/ Small_Island_States_3. html).
Proceedings of the Small Island States Conference on Sea Level Rise. November 14–18, 1989. Male, Republic of Maldives. Edited by Hussein
Shihab. . Retrieved 2007-01-12.
[71] http:/ / ibis. grdl. noaa. gov/ SAT/ pubs/ papers/ 2001_Cheney_Encycl. pdf
Current sea level rise 402

References
• Byravan, S.; Rajan, S. C. (2010). "The ethical implications of sea-level rise due to climate change". Ethics and
International Affairs 24: 239–60. doi:10.1111/j.1747-7093.2010.00266.x.
• Cazenave, A.; Nerem, R. S. (2004). "Present-day sea level change: Observations and causes". Rev. Geophys 42:
RG3001. Bibcode 2004RvGeo..42.3001C. doi:10.1029/2003RG000139.
• Emery, K.O., and D. G. Aubrey (1991). Sea levels, land levels, and tide gauges. New York: Springer-Verlag.
ISBN 0-387-97449-0.
• "Sea Level Variations of the United States 1854-1999" (http://co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt36doc.
pdf) (PDF). NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 36. Retrieved 20 February 2005.
• Clark, P. U., Mitrovica, J. X., Milne, G. A. & Tamisiea (2002). "Sea-Level Fingerprinting as a Direct Test for the
Source of Global Meltwater Pulse 1A". Science 295 (5564): 2438–2441. doi:10.1126/science.1069017.
PMID 11896236.
• Eelco J. Rohling, Robert Marsh, Neil C. Wells, Mark Siddall and Neil R. Edwards (2004). "Similar meltwater
contributions to glacial sea level changes from Antarctic and northern ice sheets". Nature 430 (August 26):
1016–1021. doi:10.1038/nature02859. PMID 15329718.
• Walter Munk (2002). "Twentieth century sea level: An enigma". Geophysics 99 (10): 6550–6555.
• Menefee, Samuel Pyeatt (1991). "Half Seas Over: The Impact of Sea Level Rise on International Law and
Policy". U.C.L.A. Journal of Environmental Law & Policy 9: 175–218.
• Laury Miller and Bruce C. Douglas (2004). "Mass and volume contributions to twentieth-century global sea level
rise". Nature 428 (6981): 406–409. doi:10.1038/nature02309. PMID 15042085.
• Bruce C. Douglas and W. Richard Peltier (2002). "The Puzzle of Global Sea-Level Rise" (http://web.archive.
org/web/20050213165850/http://www.aip.org/pt/vol-55/iss-3/p35.html) (– Scholar search (http://scholar.
google.co.uk/scholar?hl=en&lr=&q=intitle:The+Puzzle+of+Global+Sea-Level+Rise&
as_publication=Physics+Today&as_ylo=2002&as_yhi=2002&btnG=Search)). Physics Today 55 (3): 35–41.
doi:10.1063/1.1472392. Archived from the original (http://www.aip.org/pt/vol-55/iss-3/p35.html) on 13
February 2005. Retrieved 24 March 2005.
• B. C. Douglas (1992). "Global sea level acceleration". J. Geophys. Res. 7 (c8): 12699.
Bibcode 1992JGR....9712699D. doi:10.1029/92JC01133.
• Warrick, R. A., C. L. Provost, M. F. Meier, J. Oerlemans, and P. L. Woodworth (1996). "Changes in sea level". In
Houghton, John Theodore. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge
University Press. pp. 359–405. ISBN 0-521-56436-0.
• R. Kwok, J. C. Comiso (2002). "Southern Ocean Climate and Sea Ice Anomalies Associated with the Southern
Oscillation" (http://neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications/pdf/pubs2002/2_Southern_Ocean_Climate.pdf)
(PDF). Journal of Climate 15 (5): 487–501. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0487:SOCASI>2.0.CO;2.
• Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, " Mean Sea Level (http://sealevel.colorado.edu/)" Accessed
December 19, 2005
• Fahnestock, Mark (December 4, 2004), " Report shows movement of glacier has doubled speed (http://www.
spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=15611)", University of New Hampshire press release. Accessed
December 19, 2005
• Leuliette, E.W., R.S. Nerem, and G.T. Mitchum (2004). "Calibration of TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason Altimeter
Data to Construct a Continuous Record of Mean Sea Level Change". Marine Geodesy 27 (1-2).
• National Snow and Ice Data Center (March 14, 2005), " Is Global Sea Level Rising? (http://nsidc.org/sotc/
sea_level.html)". Accessed December 19, 2005
• INQUA commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution. "IPCC again" (http://web.archive.org/web/
20040725130615/http://www.pog.su.se/sea/HP-14.+IPCC-3.pdf) (PDF). Archived from the original (http:/
/www.pog.su.se/sea/HP-14.+IPCC-3.pdf) on 2004-07-25. Retrieved 2004-07-25.
Current sea level rise 403

• Connor, Steve (2005-07-25). "Independent Online Edition" (http://news.independent.co.uk/world/


environment/article301493.ece). The Independent (London). Retrieved 2005-12-19.
• Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. "Address by his Excellency Mr. Maumoon Abdul Gahoom, President of the Republic
of Maldives, at thenineteenth special session of the United Nations General Assembly for the purpose of an
overall review and appraisal of theimplementation of agenda 21 - June 24, 1997" (http://www.un.int/maldives/
ungass.htm). Retrieved 2006-01-06.
• Pilkey, Orrin and Robert Young, The Rising Sea, Shearwater, July 2009 ISBN 978-1597261913

External links
• "Climate change threatening the Southern Ocean" (http://csiro.au/multimedia/
Climate-change-threat-to-Southern-Ocean.html).
• Sea Level Rise:Understanding the past - Improving projections for the future (http://www.cmar.csiro.au/
sealevel)
• Providing new homes for climate exiles (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=950329) Sujatha
Byravan and Sudhir Chella Rajan, 2006
• Sea Level Rise (http://www.futureocean.org/english/research-areas/marine-resources-and-risks/
sea-level-rise-and-coasts-at-risk/facts/) - Cluster of Excellence "Future Ocean", Kiel
• New perspectives for the future of the Maldives (http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/
PDF_Papers/MornerEtAl2004.pdf) Nils-Axel Mörner, Michael Tooley, Göran Possnert, 2004
• "Physical Agents of Land Loss: Relative Sea Level" (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2003/of03-337/global.html).
An Overview of Coastal Land Loss: With Emphasis on the Southeastern United States. Retrieved 14 February
2005.
• Changes in the Earth's shorelines during the past 20 kyr caused by the deglaciation of the Late Pleistocene ice
sheets (http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/palaeoshoreline_webpage/HTML/HOME.htm), from the Permanent
Service for Mean Sea Level
• Indigenous Aboriginal Australian Perspective on Sea Level Changes: Video (http://indigenouspeoplesissues.
com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&
id=385:indigenous-australian-aboriginal-perspectives-on-climate-change-cape-york-australia&
catid=68:videos-and-movies&Itemid=96)
• Includes picture of sea level for past 20 kyr based on barbados coral record (http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/
palaeoshoreline_webpage/HTML/Science.htm)
• Global sea level change: Determination and interpretation (http://www.agu.org/revgeophys/dougla01/
dougla01.html)
• Sea level rise FAQ (http://www.radix.net/~bobg/faqs/sea.level.faq.html) (1997)
• The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) (http://www.gloss-sealevel.org/)
• The GLOSS Station Handbook (http://www.bodc.ac.uk/data/information_and_inventories/gloss_handbook/)
• "Sea Level Rise Reports" (http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/sealevelrise). US Environmental Protection
Agency website.
• The Sinking of Tuvalu (http://www.thesinkingoftuvalu.com/)
• Center for the Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets - Maps, Animations, GIS Layers (http://www.cresis.ku.edu/
research/data/sea_level_rise/index.html)
• Tides and Sea Level Rise Model (http://www.interactive-earth.com/visualizations/sea_level_fluctuation.htm)
• "University of Colorado at Boulder Sea Level Change" (http://sealevel.colorado.edu/).
Maps that show a Rise in Sea Levels
• Sea Level Rise of up to 14m - meltdown of Greenlandic ice shield (http://flood.firetree.net/)
Current sea level rise 404

• World Maps for a sea level rise in 60m - meltdown of the antarctic ice shield (http://www.elstel.com/
SeaLevelRise.html#Maps)
• Hazard map showing variable sea level rise and earthquake impacts (http://archive.cyark.org/hazard-map),
developed by CyArk to demonstrate potential impact of climate change (and earthquakes) on World Heritage
Sites
• Sea Levels Online: National Ocean Service (CO-OPS) (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.
shtml), displays local sea level rise and sea level trends via a map interface
• Sea Level Rise Planning Maps (http://plan.risingsea.net) County and state scale maps showing which lands
below 5 meters are likely and unlikely to be protected from a rising sea, according to study funded by US
Environmental Protection Agency.

Season creep
In phenology, season creep is a neologism that refers to observed changes in the timing of the seasons,[1] [2]
especially earlier indications of spring[3] widely observed in temperate areas across the Northern Hemisphere.[4] [5]
Phenological records analyzed by climate scientists have shown significant temporal trends in the observed time of
seasonal events,[6] [7] from the end of the 20th century and continuing into the 21st century.[5] [8] In Europe, season
creep has been associated with the arrival of spring moving up by approximately one week in a recent 30 year
period.[9] [10] Other studies have put the rate of season creep measured by plant phenology in the range of 2–3 days
per decade advancement in spring, and 0.3–1.6 days per decade delay in autumn, over the past 30–80 years.[11]
Observable changes in nature related to season creep include birds laying their eggs earlier and buds appearing on
some trees in late winter.[12] In addition to advanced budding, flowering trees have been blooming earlier, for
example the culturally important cherry blossoms in Japan,[13] [14] and Washington, D.C.[15] [16] Northern hardwood
forests have been trending toward leafing out sooner, and retaining their green canopies longer.[17] The agricultural
growing season has also expanded by 10–20 days over the last few decades.[18]
The effects of season creep have been noted by non-scientists as well, including gardeners who have advanced their
spring planting times,[19] and experimented with plantings of less hardy warmer climate varieties of non-native
plants.[20] While summer growing seasons are expanding, winters are getting warmer and shorter, resulting in
reduced winter ice cover on bodies of water,[21] earlier ice-out,[22] earlier melt water flows,[23] and earlier spring lake
level peaks.[24] Some spring events, or "phenophases", have become intermittent or unobservable; for example,
bodies of water that once froze regularly most winters now freeze less frequently,[8] [25] [26] and formerly migratory
birds are now seen year-round in some areas.[27]

Relationship to global warming


The full impact of global warming is forecast to happen in the future, but climate scientists have cited season creep
as an easily observable effect of climate change that has already occurred.[5] [12] [18] A large systematic phenological
examination of data on 542 plant species in 21 European countries from 1971–2000 showed that 78% of all leafing,
flowering, and fruiting records advanced while only 3% were significantly delayed, and these observations were
consistent with measurements of observed warming.[10] [28] Similar changes in the phenology of plants and animals
are occurring across marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups studied, and these changes are also consistent with the
expected impact of global warming.[29]
While phenology fairly consistently points to an earlier spring across temperate regions of North America, a recent
comprehensive study of the sub-arctic showed greater variability in the timing of green-up, with some areas
advancing, and some having no discernible trend over a recent 44-year period.[30] Another 40 year phenological
study in China found greater warming over that period in the more northerly sites studied, with sites experiencing
Season creep 405

cooling mostly in the south, indicating that the temperature variation with latitude is decreasing there.[31] This study
also confirmed that season creep was correlated with warming, but the effect is non-linear—phenophases advanced
less with greater warming, and retarded more with greater cooling.[31]
Shorter winters and longer growing seasons may appear to be a benefit to society from global warming, but the
effects of advanced phenophases may also have serious consequences for human populations. Modeling of snowmelt
predicted that warming of 3° to 5°C in the Western United States could cause snowmelt-driven runoff to occur as
much as two months earlier, with profound effects on hydroelectricity, land use, agriculture, and water
management.[32] Since 1980, earlier snowmelt and associated warming has also been associated with an increase in
length and severity of the wildfire season there.[33]

Etymology
Season creep was included in the 9th edition of the Collins English Dictionary published in London June 4, 2007.[34]
[35]
The term was popularized in the media after the report titled "Season Creep: How Global Warming Is Already
Affecting The World Around Us" was published by the American environmental organization Clear the Air on
March 21, 2006.[36] In the "Season Creep" report, Jonathan Banks, Policy Director for Clear the Air, introduced the
term as follows:
While to some, an early arrival of spring may sound good, an imbalance in the ecosystem can wreak havoc.
Natural processes like flowers blooming, birds nesting, insects emerging, and ice melting are triggered in large
part by temperature. As temperatures increase globally, the delicately balanced system begins to fall into
ecological disarray. We call this season creep.[36]

Other uses
The term "season creep" has been applied in other contexts as well:
• In professional sports, season creep refers to lengthening of the playing season, especially the extension of the
MLB season to 162 games.[37]
• In college athletics, season creep refers to longer periods athletes spend training in their sport.[38]
• In American politics, campaign season creep refers to the need for candidates to start fund raising activities
sooner.[39]
• In retailing, Christmas creep refers to the earlier appearance of Christmas-themed merchandising, extending the
holiday shopping season.[2] [40]

References
[1] Gabay, Jonathan (2006). "23. So What's New?". Gabay's Copywriters' Compendium (Second Edition: The Definitive Professional Writers
Guide ed.). Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann. pp. 701. ISBN 0-7506-8320-1. "Season creep n. Earlier spring weather and other gradual
seasonal shifts caused by global climate change."
[2] Maxwell, Kerry (2006-09-18). "Macmillan English Dictionary Word Of The Week Archive - "Christmas creep"" (http:/ / www.
macmillandictionary. com/ New-Words/ 060918-Christmas-creep. htm). New Words. Macmillan Publishers. . Retrieved 2007-12-26. "...season
creep, earlier spring weather and seasonal shifts caused by global climate change"
[3] Maxwell, Kerry (2007-12). "A review of 2007 in twelve words" (http:/ / www. macmillandictionaries. com/ MED-Magazine/ December2007/
48-New-Word. htm#3). MED Magazine. Macmillan English Dictionaries. . Retrieved 2007-12-23. "It’s a classic case of the newly identified
phenomenon of season creep, where Winters are warmer and Spring arrives earlier."
[4] Schwartz, M. D.; Ahas, R.; Aasa, A. (2006). "Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere". Global Change Biology 12
(2): 343–351. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01097.x. "SI first leaf dates, measuring change in the start of ‘early spring’ (roughly the time of
shrub budburst and lawn first greening), are getting earlier in nearly all parts of the Northern Hemisphere. The average rate of change over the
1955–2002 period is approximately -1.2 days per decade.".
[5] Cleland, E.E.; Chiariello, N.R.; Loarie, S.R.; Mooney, H.A.; Field, C.B. (2006). "Diverse responses of phenology to global changes in a
grassland ecosystem". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103 (37): 13740–4. doi:10.1073/pnas.0600815103. PMC 1560087.
PMID 16954189. "Shifting plant phenology (i.e., timing of flowering and other developmental events) in recent decades establishes that
Season creep 406

species and ecosystems are already responding to global environmental change. Earlier flowering and an extended period of active plant
growth across much of the northern hemisphere have been interpreted as responses to warming.".
[6] McFedries, Paul (2006-08). "Changing Climate, Changing Language" (http:/ / www. spectrum. ieee. org/ aug06/ 4234). IEEE Spectrum. .
Retrieved 2007-12-23. "Did spring seem to arrive a bit earlier than usual this year in your part of the world? That wouldn’t be surprising,
because we seem to be undergoing season creep: earlier spring weather and other gradual seasonal shifts, particularly those caused by global
climate change."
[7] Sayre, Carolyn (2006-12-17). "The Year in Buzzwords 2006" (http:/ / www. time. com/ time/ magazine/ article/ 0,9171,1570839,00. html).
TIME. . Retrieved 2007-12-26. "SEASON CREEP n. Spring seemed to come early this year--and summer lasted a bit longer. What's to blame?
Most scientists say global warming."
[8] Skinner, Victor (2007-02-17). "Area temperatures expected to rise back to 'normal'" (http:/ / archives. record-eagle. com/ 2007/ feb/
17weather. htm). Traverse City Record-Eagle. . Retrieved 2007-12-27. "...the west arm of Grand Traverse Bay ... has only frozen over five
times since 1987,.... Between 1851 and 1980, [it] froze at least seven years per decade, ... the bay-freezing trend shows "a long-term gradual
decline with a significant decline in the past 25 to 35 years.”"
[9] Stutz, Bruce (2006-04-21). "Suddenly spring" (http:/ / www. highbeam. com/ doc/ 1P1-122344415. html). The Record (Bergen County, NJ). .
Retrieved 2007-12-23. "In fact, due to global warming, spring across the Northern Hemisphere arrives a week or more earlier than it did 30
years ago, a phenomenon starting to be known as "season creep.""
[10] "Climate changes shift springtime : A Europe-wide study has provided "conclusive proof" that the seasons are changing, with spring arriving
earlier each year, researchers say." (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 5279390. stm). Science/Nature. BBC NEWS. 2006-08-25.
. Retrieved 2007-12-28. "Spring was beginning on average six to eight days earlier than it did 30 years ago, the researchers said."
[11] Sherry, R.A.; Zhou, X.; Gu, S.; Arnone Iii, J.A.; Schimel, D.S.; Verburg, P.S.; Wallace, L.L.; Luo, Y. (2007). "Divergence of reproductive
phenology under climate warming" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 104/ 1/ 198). Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences 104 (1): 198–202. doi:10.1073/pnas.0605642104. PMC 1713188. PMID 17182748. . Retrieved 2007-12-29. "Phenology is a
sensitive biosphere indicator of climate change. Long-term surface data and remote sensing measurements indicate that plant phenology has
been advanced by 2–3 days in spring and delayed by 0.3–1.6 days in autumn per decade in the past 30–80 years, resulting in extension of the
growing season.".
[12] "Man bags at ten paces? Just look it up" (http:/ / news. scotsman. com/ ViewArticle. aspx?articleid=3291680& bad=678471). Scotsman.com
News. 2007-06-04. . Retrieved 2007-12-23. "While the full impact of global warming is still to be experienced, many scientists are warning
that it is responsible for earlier springs leading to longer summers."
[13] Miller-rushing, A.J.; Katsuki, T.; Primack, R.B.; Ishii, Y.; Lee, S.D.; Higuchi, H. (2007). "Impact of global warming on a group of related
species and their hybrids: cherry tree (Rosaceae) flowering at Mt. Takao, Japan" (http:/ / www. amjbot. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 94/ 9/
1470). American Journal of Botany 94 (9): 1470. doi:10.3732/ajb.94.9.1470. . Retrieved 2007-12-29. "We examined a 25-yr record
(1981–2005) of flowering times for 97 trees, representing 17 species and hybrids of cherry (Cerasus sp. or Prunus sp.) grown at Mt. Takao, in
Tokyo, Japan. The cherry trees flowered earlier over time, by an average of 5.5 d over the 25-yr study.".
[14] Cleland, E.E.; Chuine, I.; Menzel, A.; Mooney, H.A.; Schwartz, M.D. (2007). "Shifting plant phenology in response to global change"
(http:/ / www. aseanenvironment. info/ Abstract/ 41015195. pdf). Trends in Ecology & Evolution 22 (7): 357–365.
doi:10.1016/j.tree.2007.04.003. PMID 17478009. . Retrieved 2007-12-29. "The longest and best known phenological records come from the
Far East and Europe, including ... the 1300+-year Kyoto cherry blossom time series [37]... These longterm historical records can serve as
proxies for temperature where thermometer data are unavailable.".
[15] >Abu-asab, M.S.; Peterson, P.M.; Shetler, S.G.; Orli, S.S. (2001). "Earlier plant flowering in spring as a response to global warming in the
Washington, DC, area" (http:/ / si-pddr. si. edu/ dspace/ bitstream/ 10088/ 3371/ 1/ Abu-Asab_et_al_2001_early_flowering. pdf). Biodiversity
and Conservation 10 (4): 597–612. doi:10.1023/A:1016667125469. . Retrieved 2009-06-27.
[16] Peterson, Paul M.; Stanwyn G. Shetler, Mones S. Abu-Asab, Sylvia S. Orli (2005). "Chapter 8 Global Climate Change: The Spring
Temperate Flora". In Krupnick, Gary A; W. John Kress. Plant conservation: a natural history approach. Chicago: University of Chicago
Press. pp. 192. ISBN 0-226-45513-0. "Finally, there is the Cherry Blossom Festival in Washington, DC, each spring. On average the two
principal species, Prunus serrulata (Kwanzan cherry and other varieties) and P. X yedoensis ( Yoshino cherry), bloom six and nine days
earlier, respectively, than they did in 1970."
[17] Richardson, A.D.; Bailey, A.S.; Denny, E.G.; Martin, C.W.; O'Keefe, J. (2006). "Phenology of a northern hardwood forest canopy". Global
Change Biology 12 (7): 1174–1188. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01164.x. "...significant trends (P≤0.05) towards an earlier spring (e.g.
sugar maple, rate of change=0.18 days earlier/yr), consistent with other studies documenting measurable climate change effects on the onset of
spring in both North America and Europe. Our results also suggest that green canopy duration has increased by about 10 days (e.g. sugar
maple, rate of change=0.21 days longer/yr) over the period of study.".
[18] Linderholm, H.W. (2006). "Growing season changes in the last century" (http:/ / research. eeescience. utoledo. edu/ lees/ papers_PDF/
Linderholm_2006_AFM. pdf). Agricultural and forest meteorology 137 (1-2): 1–14. doi:10.1016/j.physletb.2003.10.071. . Retrieved
2009-06-27. "The evidence points to a lengthening of the growing season of ca. 10–20 days in the last few decades, where an earlier onset of
the start is most prominent. This extension of the growing season has been associated with recent global warming.".
[19] Smith, Virginia A. (2007-04-07). "Out on a limb: Gardeners excited by the early warmth — call it "season creep" - are experimenting with
earlier planting and new varieties." (http:/ / www. accessmylibrary. com/ coms2/ summary_0286-14687823_ITM). The Philadelphia Inquirer.
. Retrieved 2007-12-23. "...earlier springs — an idea known as "season creep" — may or may not be related to long-term warming trends. Yet
the reality of year-to-year weather weirdness recently, coupled with the ever-present impulse to outsmart Mother Nature, has prompted more
Season creep 407

than a few gardeners to shun conventional horticultural wisdom."


[20] Williams, Brad (2007-04-08). "Dogwoods to frogs, tulips to snow, Knox shows signs of warming" (http:/ / www. knoxnews. com/ news/
2007/ Apr/ 08/ dogwoods-to-frogs-tulips-to-snow-knox-shows-of/ ). Knoxville News Sentinel. . Retrieved 2007-12-23. "Knoxville is now in
hardiness Zone 7, a zone where more southern trees and shrubs flourish. The zone shift can be seen all across the northern half of the state. It
effectively means plants that once had difficulty growing here are now finding it easier to thrive, said Lisa Stanley, master gardener at
Stanley's Greenhouses"
[21] Magnuson, J.J.; Robertson, D.M.; Benson, B.J.; Wynne, R.H.; Livingstone, D.M.; Arai, T.; Assel, R.A.; Barry, R.G.; Card, V.; Kuusisto, E.;
Others, (2000). "Historical Trends in Lake and River Ice Cover in the Northern Hemisphere". Science 289 (5485): 1743–1746.
Bibcode 2000Sci...289.1743M. doi:10.1126/science.289.5485.1743. PMID 10976066. "Freeze and breakup dates of ice on lakes and rivers
provide consistent evidence of later freezing and earlier breakup around the Northern Hemisphere from 1846 to 1995. Over these 150 years,
changes in freeze dates averaged 5.8 days per 100 years later, and changes in breakup dates averaged 6.5 days per 100 years earlier;".
[22] Hodgkins, G.A.; Ii, I.C.J.; Huntington, T.G. (2002). "Historical Changes In Lake Ice-out Dates As Indicators Of Climate Change In New
England, 1850--2000" (http:/ / www. uvm. edu/ ~pbierman/ classes/ gradsem/ 2005fall/ hodgkins_et_al_2002. pdf). Int. J. Climatol 22 (15):
1819–1827. doi:10.1002/joc.857. . Retrieved 2007-12-28. "Various studies have shown that changes over time in spring ice-out dates can be
used as indicators of climate change.... Ice-out dates have become significantly earlier in New England since the 1800s".
[23] Dybas, Cheryl Lyn (2006-03-20). "Early Spring Disturbing Life on Northern Rivers" (http:/ / www. washingtonpost. com/ wp-dyn/ content/
article/ 2006/ 03/ 19/ AR2006031900758. html). The Washington Post. . Retrieved 2007-12-26. "Research by [USGS hydrologist Glenn]
Hodgkins and USGS scientist Robert Dudley also shows changes in early-spring stream flow across eastern North America from Minnesota to
Newfoundland. Rivers are gushing with snow- and ice-melt as much as 10 to 15 days sooner than they did 50 to 90 years ago, based on USGS
records."
[24] "Early risers" (http:/ / www. newscientist. com/ article/ mg16622413. 300. html). New Scientist 167 (2241): 21. 2000-06-03. . Retrieved
2007-12-27. "North America's Great Lakes are reaching their spring high-water levels a month earlier than they did when records began in
1860. Levels normally rise in the spring as snow melts, but regional temperatures have been rising for the past 90 years, and winter ice cover
has been shrinking.".
[25] Wake, Cameron (2006-12-04). "Climate Change in the Northeast: Past, Present, and Future" (http:/ / www. dec. ny. gov/ docs/
remediation_hudson_pdf/ hvcc1000cpw. pdf) (pdf). Climate Change in the Hudson Valley, NY. . Retrieved 2007-12-27. "A particularly
interesting lake ice record comes from Lake Champlain where they record the ice in date.... Of more significance is the fact that the ice has not
frozen in the area of observation in 16 of the past 30 years."
[26] "Why Less Winter Ice is the Pitts for State" (http:/ / nl. newsbank. com/ nl-search/ we/ Archives?s_site=freep& f_site=freep&
f_sitename=Detroit+ Free+ Press& p_theme=gannett& p_product=FP& p_action=search). The Detroit Free Press. 2006-04-03. . Retrieved
2007-12-23. "Grand Traverse Bay ... froze at least seven winters out of every 10; the rate slipped in the 1980s. In the 1990s, the bay froze only
three times. So far this decade, once. Observers see that as one more sign of what some call "season creep," or evidence of global warming."
[27] "Report warns of global warming increase" (http:/ / archive. seacoastonline. com/ news/ 04162006/ news/ 98000. htm). Portsmouth Herald. .
Retrieved 2007-12-27. "...Jan Pendlebury, executive director of the New Hampshire chapter of the National Environmental Trust, said...
'Global warming is forcing changes to the quintessential indicator that spring has arrived: return of the robin. Recent years have
documentation that rather than flying south with other feathered friends, many populations of robins are becoming year-round residents, not
only in the southern tier of the state, but as far north as Jackson.'"
[28] Menzel, A.; Sparks, T.H.; Estrella, N.; Koch, E.; Aasa, A.; Ahas, R.; Alm-kübler, K.; Bissolli, P.; Braslavská, O.; Briede, A.; Others, (2006).
"European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern". Global Change Biology 12 (10): 1969–1976.
doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01193.x. "Our results showed that 78% of all leafing, flowering and fruiting records advanced (30%
significantly) and only 3% were significantly delayed, whereas the signal of leaf colouring/fall is ambiguous.".
[29] Parmesan, C. (2006). "Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change". Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst 37 (1): 637–69.
doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100. "Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in
all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups. These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global
warming...".
[30] Delbart, N.; Picard, G.; Kergoat, L.; Letoan, T.; Quegan, S.; Dye, D.; Woodward, I.; Fedotova, V. (2007). Spring phenology in taiga and
tundra (http:/ / www. agu. org/ cgi-bin/ wais?jj=B53D-07). . Retrieved 2007-12-29. "The model was applied over the whole low arctic region
from 1958 to 2002. In North East Canada and North East Russia, no remarkable trend is found in the timing of green- up, whereas a ten day
advance is recorded in the last few decades in North Alaska and in North West Siberia.".
[31] Jingyun, Z.; Quansheng, G.; Zhixin, H. (2002). "Impacts of climate warming on plants phenophases in China for the last 40 years" (http:/ /
www. igbp-cnc. org. cn/ cpn/ resource/ ky1826. pdf). Chinese Science Bulletin 47 (21): 1826–1831. doi:10.1360/02tb9399. . Retrieved
2009-06-27. "There is a statistically meaningful relation between inter-annual changes in the spring phenophase and the spring temperature in
China for the last 40 years.... The response of phenophase advance or delay to temperature change is nonlinear.... the rate of the phenophase
difference with latitude becomes smaller too.".
[32] Rauscher, S. A.; Pal, J. S.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Benedetti, M. M. (2008). "Future changes in snowmelt-driven runoff timing over the western
US". Geophysical Research Letters 35 (16): L16703. Bibcode 2008GeoRL..3516703R. doi:10.1029/2008GL034424.
[33] Westerling, L.; Hidalgo, G.; Cayan, R.; Swetnam, W. (Aug 2006). "Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. Forest wildfire
activity". Science 313 (5789): 940–943. doi:10.1126/science.1128834. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 16825536.
Season creep 408

[34] Topping , Alexandra (2007-06-04). "'Hoodies', 'size zero', 'man flu', make it into the dictionary" (http:/ / english. people. com. cn/ 200706/
05/ eng20070605_380949. html). The Guardian. . Retrieved 2007-12-23. "A preoccupation with environmental issues, a favourite topic of
[British Conservative Party leader David] Cameron's, is also reflected in new phrases such as "carbon footprint", "carbon offsetting" and
"season creep", used to describe the changing length of the seasons thought to be caused by climate change."
[35] "'Season creep', 'BBQ stopper' appear in dictionary pages" (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ news/ newsitems/ 200706/ s1941218. htm). ABC News
Online. 2007-06-04. . Retrieved 2007-12-23. ""Hoodies", "season creep" and "barbecue stopper" are among hundreds of new words and
phrases included in an updated version of an English dictionary."
[36] "Season creep" (http:/ / www. wordspy. com/ words/ seasoncreep. asp). Word Spy. . Retrieved 2007-12-23. "Earliest Citation:… Jonathan
Banks, 'Season Creep: How Global Warming Is Already Affecting The World Around Us,' National Environment Trust, March 21, 2006"
[37] "What Has Longer Season Brought To Baseball Besides Snow Warnings?" (http:/ / www. highbeam. com/ doc/ 1G1-64641349. html).
Seattle Post-Intelligencer (Seattle, WA). 1997-10-23. . Retrieved 2007-12-26. "Call it season creep. First came the shift to 162 games, a
change that made it, among other things, impossible to compare Roger Maris' 61 home runs to Babe Ruth's 60."
[38] "Virginian-Pilot Archives" (http:/ / nl. newsbank. com/ nl-search/ we/ Archives?p_product=VP& p_theme=vp& p_action=search&
p_text_direct-0=1197101945A1ECD0& p_field_direct-0=document_id& p_perpage=10& p_sort=YMD_date:D& s_trackval=GooglePM).
The Virginian-Pilot. Pilot Media. 2007-05-29. . Retrieved 2007-12-26. "'Season creep' has expanded the time an intercollegiate athlete must
devote to his or her specialty. No sport should be year-round or nearly so."
[39] Sellnow, Greg (2007-04-07). ", Greg Sellnow column: I'm just sayin'." (http:/ / www. accessmylibrary. com/ coms2/
summary_0286-30260656_ITM). Post-Bulletin, Rochester, Minn.. . Retrieved 2007-12-26. "And it is money, of course, that is responsible for
campaign season creep. If you don't raise money early -- gobs and gobs of it -- you'll find yourself on the fundraising super highway with
roller marks over your body, where your opponent's war chest plowed over you."
[40] Siewers, Alf (1987-11-25). "He's well-suited to enjoying life of Santa" (http:/ / nl. newsbank. com/ nl-search/ we/
Archives?p_product=CSTB& p_theme=cstb& p_action=search& p_maxdocs=200& p_topdoc=1& p_text_direct-0=0EB36D9911BB108A&
p_field_direct-0=document_id& p_perpage=10& p_sort=YMD_date:D& s_trackval=GooglePM). Chicago Sun-Times. . Retrieved
2007-12-26. "And so does the culture, with a commercializing of himself that Santa deplores even as he has watched the holiday season creep
back to Labor Day."

Shutdown of thermohaline circulation


Shutdown or slowdown of the
thermohaline circulation is a
postulated effect of global warming.
There is some speculation that global
warming could, via a shutdown or
slowdown of the thermohaline
circulation, trigger localised cooling in
the North Atlantic and lead to cooling,
or lesser warming, in that region. This
would particularly affect the areas of
the British Isles and the Nordic
countries that are warmed by the North
Atlantic drift. The chances of this A summary of the path of the thermohaline circulation. Blue paths represent deep-water
occurring are unclear; there is some currents, while red paths represent surface currents
evidence for the stability of the Gulf
Stream but a possible weakening of the North Atlantic drift; and there is evidence of warming in northern Europe
and nearby seas, rather than the reverse. The future is undecided, as studies of the Florida Current suggest that the
Gulf Stream weakens with cooling and strengthens with warming, being weakest (by ~10%) during the Little Ice
Age and strongest during 1,000–1,100 years BP (Before Present), the Medieval Warm Period.[1]
Shutdown of thermohaline circulation 409

Thermohaline circulation and fresh water


Heat is transported from the equator polewards mostly by the atmosphere but also by ocean currents, with warm
water near the surface and cold water at deeper levels. The best known segment of this circulation is the Gulf
Stream, a wind-driven gyre, which transports warm water from the Caribbean northwards. A northwards branch of
the Gulf Stream, the North Atlantic Drift, is part of the thermohaline circulation (THC), transporting warmth further
north to the North Atlantic, where its effect in warming the atmosphere contributes to warming Europe. Other factors
are also important, such as atmospheric waves that bring subtropical air further north, which have been suggested to
influence the Climate of the British Isles more than the Gulf Stream.[2] [3] The evaporation of ocean water in the
North Atlantic increases the salinity of the water as well as cooling it, both actions increasing the density of water at
the surface. The formation of sea ice further increases the salinity. This dense water then sinks and the circulation
stream continues in a southerly direction. Global warming could lead to an increase in freshwater in the northern
oceans, by melting glaciers in Greenland and by increasing precipitation, especially through Siberian rivers.[4] It is
by no means clear that sufficient freshwater could be provided to interrupt thermohaline circulation – yet the
Younger Dryas are a case where this might have been the cause, however climate models indicate not, but research
continues.
Some even fear that global warming may be able to trigger the type of
abrupt massive temperature shifts which occurred during the last
glacial period: a series of Dansgaard-Oeschger events – rapid climate
fluctuations – may be attributed to freshwater forcing at high latitude
interrupting the THC. The Younger Dryas event may have been of this
sort, too. (See the discussion of chaos theory for related ideas.)
However, these events are believed to have been triggered by massive
freshwater discharges from the Laurentide ice sheet, rather than from
The red end of the spectrum indicates slowing in
the melting of polar sea-ice and precipitation changes associated with this presentation of the trend of velocities derived
the increased open water in global warming. Meltwater events aside, from NASA Pathfinder altimeter data from May
the climate deterioration into the last ice age appears to have taken 1992 to June 2002. Source: NASA.

about 5,000 years. Also, in coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General


Circulation Models the THC tends to weaken somewhat rather than stop, and the warming effects outweigh the
cooling, even locally: the IPCC Third Assessment Report notes that "even in models where the THC weakens, there
is still a warming over Europe".[5] Model runs in which the THC is forced to shut down do show cooling – locally up
to 8 °C (14 °F)[6] — although the largest anomalies occur over the North Atlantic, not over land. However, climate
models are not sufficiently sophisticated at present to include climatic factors which give these predictions veracity;
e.g., the recent return of deep convection to the subpolar gyre in both the Labrador and Irminger seas and the
growing ice mass of Greenland.

Measurements in 2004, 2005, 2008 and 2010


In April 2004, the hypothesis that the Gulf Stream is switching off received a boost when a retrospective analysis of
U.S. satellite data seemed to show a slowing of the North Atlantic Gyre, the northern swirl of the Gulf Stream.[7]
In May 2005, Peter Wadhams reported to The Times about the results of investigations in a submarine under the
Arctic ice sheet measuring the giant chimneys of cold dense water, in which the cold dense water normally sinks
down to the sea bed and is replaced by warm water, forming one of the engines of the North Atlantic Drift. He and
his team found the chimneys to have virtually disappeared. Normally there are seven to twelve giant columns, but
Wadhams found only two giant columns, both extremely weak.[8] [9]
In 2008, Vage et al. reported "the return of deep convection to the subpolar gyre in both the Labrador and Irminger
seas in the winter of 2007–2008," employing "profiling float data from the Argo program to document deep mixing,"
Shutdown of thermohaline circulation 410

and "a variety of in situ, satellite and reanalysis data" to set the context for the phenomenon. This might have a lot to
do with the observations of variations in cold water chimney behaviour.[10]
In January 2010, the Gulf Stream briefly connected with the West Greenland Current after fluctuating for a few
weeks due to an extreme negative phase of the Arctic oscillation, temporarily diverting it west of Greenland.[11] [12]

Bryden measurements reported late 2005


The NewScientist.com news service[13] reported on 30 November 2005 that the National Oceanography Centre in
the UK found a 30% reduction in the warm currents that carry water north from the Gulf Stream from the last such
measurement in 1992. The authors note that currently the observed changes are "uncomfortably close" to the
uncertainties in the measurements. However, the North Atlantic is currently warmer than in the earlier
measurements.[14] This suggests that either the circulation is not weakening, or that, even if it is weakening, the
weakening is not having the hypothesised cooling effect, or that other factors are able to overwhelm any cooling.[15]
The New Scientist article was based on an article in Nature.[16] In News and Views in the same issue, Detlef
Quadfasel reinforces the point that the uncertainty of the estimates of Bryden et al. is high, but says other factors and
observations do support their results. Quadfasel continues by pointing out the significance of the possible
implications, with palaeoclimate records showing drops of air temperature up to 10 °C within decades, linked to
abrupt switches of ocean circulation when a certain threshold is reached. He concludes that further observations and
modelling are crucial for providing early warning of a possible devastating breakdown of the circulation.[17]
On 19 January 2006, a News Feature Climate change: A sea change by Quirin Schiermeier appeared in Nature,
detailing reactions to the Bryden results.[18] Points made by Schiermeier include the following:
• The results are a surprise to scientists in the field.
• Modelling suggests that increase of fresh water flows large enough to shut down the thermohaline circulation
would be an order of magnitude greater than currently estimated to be occurring, and such increases are unlikely
to become critical within the next hundred years; this is hard to reconcile with the Bryden measurements.
• The Bryden results could be caused by natural variation, or "noise", that is, coincidence.
• If the results are correct, perhaps thermohaline circulation reductions will not have the drastic effects that have
been predicted on European cooling.
• While previous shutdowns (e.g. the Younger Dryas) have caused cooling, the current overall climate is different;
in particular sea-ice formation is less because of overall global warming.
• However, a thermohaline circulation shutdown could have other major consequences apart from cooling of
Europe, such as an increase in major floods and storms, a collapse of plankton stocks, warming or rainfall
changes in the tropics or Alaska and Antarctica (including those from intensified El Niño effect), more frequent
and intense El Niño events, or an oceanic anoxic event (oxygen (O2) below surface levels of the stagnant oceans
becomes completely depleted - a probable cause of past mass extinction events).
Further measurements support the interpretation of natural variation.[19]
Shutdown of thermohaline circulation 411

References
[1] Lund DC, Lynch-Stieglitz J, Curry WB (November 2006). "Gulf Stream density structure and transport during the past millennium". Nature
444 (7119): 601–4. doi:10.1038/nature05277. PMID 17136090.
[2] Seager R (July/August 2006). "The Source of Europe's Mild Climate" (http:/ / www. americanscientist. org/ template/ AssetDetail/ assetid/
51963/ page/ 1). American Scientist. .
[3] Rhines, P.B. and Häkkinen, S. Is the Oceanic Heat Transport in the North Atlantic Irrelevant to the Climate in Europe? (http:/ / www.
realclimate. org/ Rhines_hakkinen_2003. pdf) ASOF Newsletter, September 2003
[4] Turrell, B. The Big Chill (http:/ / www. bbc. co. uk/ science/ horizon/ 2003/ bigchilltrans. shtml) Transcript of discussion on BBC 2, 13
November 2003
[5] Thermohaline circulation changes (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 357. htm). From IPCC Working Group 1, chapter 9.
[6] Vellinga, M. and Wood, R.A. Global climatic impacts of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (http:/ / www. ocean. washington.
edu/ people/ faculty/ luanne/ classes/ pcc586/ papers/ vellingawood_thc2002. pdf). Climatic Change 54: 251 267, 2002.
[7] Satellites record weakening North Atlantic Current (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/ centers/ goddard/ news/ topstory/ 2004/ 0415gyre. html). NASA,
15 April 2004.
[8] Jonathan Leake, Britain faces big chill as ocean current slows (http:/ / www. timesonline. co. uk/ article/ 0,,2087-1602579,00. html), The
Sunday Times, 8 May 2005.
[9] Gulf Stream slowdown? (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php?p=159) RealClimate.org, 26 May 2005.
[10] Våge, Kjetil; Pickart, Robert S.; Thierry, Virginie; Reverdin, Gilles; Lee, Craig M.; Petrie, Brian; Agnew, Tom A.; Wong, Amy et al.
(2009). "Surprising return of deep convection to the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean in winter 2007–2008". Nature Geoscience 2: 67–72.
doi:10.1038/ngeo382.
[11] FishOutofWater, Diaries (6 January 2010). "Freak Current Takes Gulf Stream to Greenland" (http:/ / www. dailykos. com/ story/ 2010/ 1/ 6/
822520/ -Freak-Current-Takes-Gulf-Stream-to-Greenland). Daily Kos. . Retrieved 11 January 2010.
[12] FishOutofWater, Diaries (30 December 2009). "Warm Atlantic Water Rapidly Replacing Arctic Sea Ice" (http:/ / www. dailykos. com/
story/ 2009/ 12/ 30/ 820607/ -Warm-Atlantic-Water-Rapidly-Replacing-Arctic-Sea-Ice-). Daily Kos. . Retrieved 11 January 2010.
[13] F. Pearce. Failing ocean current raises fears of mini ice age. (http:/ / www. newscientist. com/ article. ns?id=dn8398) NewScientist, 30
November 2005
[14] Hátún H, Sandø AB, Drange H, Hansen B, Valdimarsson H (September 2005). "Influence of the Atlantic subpolar gyre on the thermohaline
circulation" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=16166513). Science 309 (5742): 1841–4.
doi:10.1126/science.1114777. PMID 16166513. . [ Unravel extensive changes in the North Atlantic Ocean—Increased temperature and
salinity in the Nordic Seas (http:/ / www. bjerknes. uib. no/ pages. asp?id=169& kat=2& lang=2) Lay summary] – Bjerknes Centre for Climate
Research.
[15] Gavin Schmidt and Michael Mann. Decrease in Atlantic circulation? (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php?p=225) RealClimate.org, 30
Nov 2005.
[16] Bryden HL, Longworth HR, Cunningham SA (December 2005). "Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25° N"
(http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v438/ n7068/ abs/ nature04385. html). Nature 438 (7068): 655–7. doi:10.1038/nature04385.
PMID 16319889. .
[17] Quadfasel D (December 2005). "Oceanography: The Atlantic heat conveyor slows" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v438/
n7068/ abs/ 438565a. html). Nature 438 (7068): 565–6. doi:10.1038/438565a. PMID 16319866. .
[18] Schiermeier, Quirin (2007). "Climate change: A sea change" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v439/ n7074/ full/ 439256a. html).
Nature 439 (7074): 256–60. doi:10.1038/439256a. PMID 16421539. . (subscription required); see also "Atlantic circulation change summary"
(http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php?p=187). RealClimate.org. 19 Jan 2006. .
[19] Schiermeier, Quirin (2007). "Ocean circulation noisy, not stalling". Nature 448 (7156): 844–5. doi:10.1038/448844b. PMID 17713489.

External links
• Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, Global Business Network - "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its
Implications for United States National Security" (http://www.environmentaldefense.org/documents/
3566_AbruptClimateChange.pdf) (Environmental Defense Fund)
• W. S. Broecker from Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory - What If the Conveyor Were to Shut Down?
Reflections on a Possible Outcome of the Great Global Experiment. (ftp://rock.geosociety.org/pub/
GSAToday/gt9901.pdf)
• The notion that the Gulf Stream is responsible for keeping Europe anomalously warm turns out to be a myth
(http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/pub/2006/4/the-source-of-europes-mild-climate/1)
• Assessing the Risk of a Collapse of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, Michael E. Schlesinger et al. (http://
www.stabilisation2005.com/Schlesingerm_Thermohaline.pdf)
Kyoto Protocol 412

Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to
the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC or FCCC), aimed at
fighting global warming. The
UNFCCC is an international
environmental treaty with the goal of
achieving the "stabilization of
greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would
Participation in the Kyoto Protocol, as of June 2009,
prevent dangerous anthropogenic Green = Countries that have signed and ratified the treaty
interference with the climate Grey = Countries that have not yet decided
[1]
system." Blue = No intention to ratify at this stage.

The Protocol was initially adopted on


11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan and entered into force on 16 February 2005. As of April 2010, 191 states have
signed and ratified the protocol.[2]
Under the Protocol, 37 countries ("Annex I countries") commit themselves to a reduction of four greenhouse gases
(GHG) (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride) and two groups of gases (hydrofluorocarbons
and perfluorocarbons) produced by them, and all member countries give general commitments. Annex I countries
agreed to reduce their collective greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2% from the 1990 level. Emission limits do not
include emissions by international aviation and shipping, but are in addition to the industrial gases,
chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, which are dealt with under the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the
Ozone Layer.
The benchmark 1990 emission levels were accepted by the Conference of the Parties of UNFCCC (decision 2/CP.3)
were the values of "global warming potential" calculated for the IPCC Second Assessment Report.[3] These figures
are used for converting the various greenhouse gas emissions into comparable CO2 equivalents (CO2-eq) when
computing overall sources and sinks.
The Protocol allows for several "flexible mechanisms", such as emissions trading, the clean development mechanism
(CDM) and joint implementation to allow Annex I countries to meet their GHG emission limitations by purchasing
GHG emission reductions credits from elsewhere, through financial exchanges, projects that reduce emissions in
non-Annex I countries, from other Annex I countries, or from annex I countries with excess allowances.
Each Annex I country is required to submit an annual report of inventories of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions from sources and removals from sinks under UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. These countries nominate
a person (called a "designated national authority") to create and manage its greenhouse gas inventory. Virtually all of
the non-Annex I countries have also established a designated national authority to manage its Kyoto obligations,
specifically the "CDM process" that determines which GHG projects they wish to propose for accreditation by the
CDM Executive Board.
Kyoto Protocol 413

Background
The view that human activities are likely responsible for most of the observed increase in global mean temperature
("global warming") since the mid-20th century is an accurate reflection of current scientific thinking (NRC, 2001,
p. 3,[4] 2008, p. 2).[5] Human-induced warming of the climate is expected to continue thoughout the 21st century and
beyond (NRC, 2008, p. 2).
IPCC (2007) produced a range of projections of what the future increase in global mean temperature might be.[6]
Projections spanned a range due to socio-economic uncertainties, e.g., over future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission
levels, and uncertainties with regard to physical science aspects, e.g., the climate sensitivity. For the time period
2090-2099, measured from global mean temperature in the period 1980-1999, the "likely" range (as assessed to have
a greater than 66% probability of being correct, based on expert judgement) across the six SRES "marker" emissions
scenarios was projected as an increase in global mean temperature of 1.1 to 6.4 °C.
The scientific question of what constitutes a "safe" level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has been
asked (NRC, 2001, p. 4). This question cannot be answered directly since it requires value judgements of, for
example, what would be an acceptable risk to human welfare. In general, however, risks increase with both the rate
and magnitude of future climate change.

Objectives
The objective of the Kyoto climate change conference
was to establish a legally binding international
agreement, whereby all the participating nations
commit themselves to tackling the issue of global
warming and greenhouse gas emissions. The target
agreed upon was an average reduction of 5.2% from
1990 levels by the year 2012. According to the treaty,
in 2012, Annex I countries must have fulfilled their
obligations of reduction of greenhouse gases emissions
established for the first commitment period
(2008–2012) (listed in Annex B of the Protocol).
Kyoto is intended to cut global emissions of greenhouse gases.
The Kyoto Protocol's first round commitments are the
first detailed step of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Gupta et al., 2007).[7] The Protocol
establishes a structure of rolling emission reduction commitment periods, with negotiations on second period
commitments that were scheduled to start in 2005 (see Kyoto Protocol#Successor for details) (Grubb and Depledge,
2001, p. 269).[8] The first period emission reduction commitments expire at the end of 2012.
The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a
level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."[1] Even if Annex I Parties
succeed in meeting their first-round commitments, much greater emission reductions will be required in future to
stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations (Grubb and Depledge, 2001, p. 269;[8] IPCC, 2001, p. 122).[9]
The five principal concepts of the Kyoto Protocol are:
• Commitments to the Annex-countries. The heart of the Protocol lies in establishing commitments for the
reduction of greenhouse gases that are legally binding for Annex I countries. Dividing the countries in different
groups is one of the key concepts in making commitments possible, where only the Annex I countries in 1997,
were seen as having the economic capacity to commit themselves and their industry. Making only the few nations
in the Annex 1 group committed to the protocols limitations.
Kyoto Protocol 414

• Implementation. In order to meet the objectives of the Protocol, Annex I countries are required to prepare policies
and measures for the reduction of greenhouse gases in their respective countries. In addition, they are required to
increase the absorption of these gases and utilize all mechanisms available, such as joint implementation, the
clean development mechanism and emissions trading, in order to be rewarded with credits that would allow more
greenhouse gas emissions at home.
• Minimizing Impacts on Developing Countries by establishing an adaptation fund for climate change.
• Accounting, Reporting and Review in order to ensure the integrity of the Protocol.
• Compliance. Establishing a Compliance Committee to enforce compliance with the commitments under the
Protocol.

2012 emission targets and "flexible mechanisms"


Thirty-nine of the forty Annex I countries have ratified the Protocol. Of these thirty-four have committed themselves
to a reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) produced by them to targets that are set in relation to their 1990 emission
levels, in accordance with Annex B of the Protocol. The targets apply to the four greenhouse gases carbon dioxide,
methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride, and two groups of gases, hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons.
The six GHG are translated into CO2 equivalents in determining reductions in emissions. These reduction targets are
in addition to the industrial gases, chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, which are dealt with under the 1987 Montreal
Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.
Under the Protocol, only the Annex I countries have committed themselves to national or joint reduction targets,
(formally called "quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives" (QELRO) - Article 4.1) that range from a
joint reduction of 8% for the European Union and others, to 7% for the United States (non-binding as the US is not a
signatory), 6% for Japan and 0% for Russia. The treaty permits emission increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for
Iceland.[10] Emission limits do not include emissions by international aviation and shipping.
Annex I countries can achieve their targets by allocating reduced annual allowances to major operators within their
borders, or by allowing these operators to exceed their allocations by offsetting any excess through a mechanism that
is agreed by all the parties to the UNFCCC, such as by buying emission allowances from other operators which have
excess emissions credits.
38 of the 39 Annex I countries have agreed to cap their emissions in this way, two others are required to do so under
their conditions of accession into the EU, and one more (Belarus) is seeking to become an Annex I country.

Flexible mechanisms
The Protocol defines three "flexibility mechanisms" that can be used by Annex I countries in meeting their emission
reduction commitments (Bashmakov et al.., 2001, p. 402).[11] The flexibility mechanisms are International
Emissions Trading (IET), the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and Joint Implementation (JI). IET allows
Annex I countries to "trade" their emissions (Assigned Amount Units, AAUs, or "allowances" for short). For IET,
the economic basis for providing this flexibility is that the marginal cost of emission abatement differs among
countries. Trade could potentially allow the Annex I countries to meet their emission reduction commitments at a
reduced cost. This is because trade allows emissions to be abated first in countries where the costs of abatement are
lowest, thus increasing the efficiency of the Kyoto agreement.
The CDM and JI are called "project-based mechanisms," in that they generate emission reductions from projects.
The difference between IET and the project-based mechanisms is that IET is based on the setting of a quantitative
restriction of emissions, while the CDM and JI are based on the idea of "production" of emission reductions (Toth et
al.., 2001, p. 660).[12] The CDM is designed to encourage production of emission reductions in non-Annex I
countries, while JI encourages production of emission reductions in Annex I countries.
Kyoto Protocol 415

The production of emission reductions generated by the CDM and JI can be used by Annex B countries in meeting
their emission reduction commitments. The emission reductions produced by the CDM and JI are both measured
against a hypothetical baseline of emissions that would have occurred in the absence of a particular emission
reduction project. The emission reductions produced by the CDM are called Certified Emission Reductions (CERs);
reductions produced by JI are called Emission Reduction Units (ERUs). The reductions are called "credits" because
they are emission reductions credited against a hypothetical baseline of emissions.

International Emissions Trading


The most advanced emissions trading system (ETS) is the one developed by the EU (Gupta et al.., 2007).[13] The
design of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) allows for trade of national Kyoto obligations
to occur between participating countries (Carbon Trust, 2009, p. 24).[14] Ellerman and Buchner (2008) (referenced
by Grubb et al.., 2009, p. 11) suggested that during its first two years in operation, the EU ETS turned an expected
increase in emissions of 1-2 percent per year into a small absolute decline.[15] Grubb et al.. (2009, p. 11) suggested
that a reasonable estimate for the emissions cut achieved during its first two years of operation was 50-100 MtCO2
per year, or 2.5-5 percent.
Carbon Trust (2009, pp. 24-25) found that other than the trading that occurs as part of the EU ETS, no international
emissions trading had taken place.[14] One of the environmental problems with IET is the large surplus of allowances
that are available. Russia, Ukraine, and the new EU-12 member states (Kyoto Parties Annex I
Economies-in-Transition, EIT) have a surplus of allowances, while many OECD countries have a deficit (Carbon
Trust, 2009, p. 24). Some of the EITs with a surplus regard it as potential compensation for the trauma of their
economic restructuring. OECD countries with a deficit could meet their Kyoto commitments by buying allowances
from transition countries with a surplus. Unless other commitments were made to reduce the total surplus in
allowances, such trade would not actually result in emissions being reduced (Carbon Trust, 2009, p. 25).

Clean Development Mechanism


Between 2001, which was the first year Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects could be registered, and
2012, the end of the Kyoto commitment period, the CDM is expected to produce some 1.5 billion tons of carbon
dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in emission reductions.[16] Most of these reductions are through renewable energy, energy
efficiency, and fuel switching (World Bank, 2010, p. 262). By 2012, the largest potential for production of CERs are
estimated in China (52% of total CERs) and India (16%). CERs produced in Latin America and the Caribbean make
up 15% of the potential total, with Brazil as the largest producer in the region (7%).

Joint Implementation
The formal crediting period for Joint Implementation (JI) was aligned with the first commitment period of the Kyoto
Protocol, and did not start until January 2008 (Carbon Trust, 2009, p. 20).[14] In November 2008, only 22 JI projects
had been officially approved and registered. The total projected emission savings from JI by 2012 are about one
tenth that of the CDM. Russia accounts for about two-thirds of these savings, with the remainder divided up roughly
equally between the Ukraine and the EU's New Member States. Emission savings include cuts in methane, HFC, and
N2O emissions.

Stabilization of GHG concentrations


IPCC (2001, p. 122) assessed how the Kyoto first-round emission reduction commitments might be consistent with a
long-term aim of stabilizing GHG concentrations in the atmosphere.[9] For a 450 ppmv target (energy-related CO2),
some analyses suggested that the first-round Kyoto commitments were inadequately stringent (IPCC, 2001, p. 122;
Morita et al., 2001, pp. 152-153).[17] The first-round Kyoto commitments were assessed to be consistent with
emission trajectories that achieve stabilization at 550 ppmv or higher. Other analyses suggested that the first-round
commitments could be weaker and still allow for a long-term 450 ppmv target (IPCC, 2001, p. 122).
Kyoto Protocol 416

Details of the agreement


According to a press release from the United Nations Environment Program:
"After 10 days of tough negotiations, ministers and other high-level officials from 160 countries reached
agreement this morning on a legally binding Protocol under which industrialized countries will reduce their
collective emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2%.
The agreement aims to lower overall emissions from a group of six greenhouse gases by 2008–12, calculated
as an average over these five years. Cuts in the three most important gases – carbon dioxide (CO2), methane
(CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) – will be measured against a base year of 1990. Cuts in three long-lived
industrial gases – hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) – can
be measured against either a 1990 or 1995 baseline."
National limitations range from 8% reductions for the European Union and others, to 7% for the US, 6% for Japan,
0% for Russia, and permitted increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for Iceland.[10]
The agreement supplements the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted at
the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, which did not set any limitations or enforcement mechanisms. All
parties to UNFCCC can sign or ratify the Kyoto Protocol, while non-parties to UNFCCC cannot. The Kyoto Protocol
was adopted at the third session of the Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 3) in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. Most
provisions of the Kyoto Protocol apply to developed countries, listed in Annex I to UNFCCC.
National emission targets exclude international aviation and shipping. Kyoto Parties can use land use, land use
change, and forestry (LULUCF) in meeting their targets (Dessai, 2001, p. 3).[18] LULUCF activities are also called
"sink" activities. Changes in sinks and land use can have an effect on the climate (IPCC, 2007).[19] Particular criteria
apply to the definition of forestry under the Kyoto Protocol.
Forest management, cropland management, grazing land management, and revegetation are all eligible LULUCF
activities under the Protocol (Dessai, 2001, p. 9). Annex I Parties use of forestry management in meeting their targets
is capped.

Common but differentiated responsibility


UNFCCC adopts a principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities." The parties agreed that:
1. the largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases originated in developed countries;
2. per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low;
3. the share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet social and development
needs.[20]

Emissions
See also Greenhouse gas#Greenhouse gas emissions
Per-capita emissions are a country's total emissions divided by its population (Banuri et al.., 1996, p. 95).[21]
Per-capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in developing
countries (Grubb, 2003, p. 144).[22] This is one reason industrialized countries accepted responsibility for leading
climate change efforts in the Kyoto negotiations. In Kyoto, the countries that took on quantified commitments for the
first period (2008–12) corresponded roughly to those with per-capita emissions in 1990 of two tonnes of carbon or
higher. In 2005, the top-20 emitters comprised 80% of total GHG emissions (PBL, 2010. See also the notes in the
following section on the top-ten emitters in 2005).[23] Countries with a Kyoto target made up 20% of total GHG
emissions.
Another way of measuring GHG emissions is to measure the total emissions that have accumulated in the
atmosphere over time (IEA, 2007, p. 199).[24] Over a long time period, cumulative emissions provide an indication
of a country's total contribution to GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. The International Energy Agency (IEA,
Kyoto Protocol 417

2007, p.201) compared cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions for several countries and regions.[24] Over the time
period 1900-2005, the US accounted for 30% of total cumulative emissions; the EU, 23%; China, 8%; Japan, 4%;
and India, 2%. The rest of the world accounted for 33% of global, cumulative, energy-related CO2 emissions.
Top-ten emitters
What follows is a ranking of the world's top ten emitters of GHGs for 2005 (MNP, 2007).[25] The first figure is the
country's or region's emissions as a percentage of the global total. The second figure is the country's/region's
per-capita emissions, in units of tons of GHG per-capita:
1. China1 – 17%, 5.8
2. United States3 – 16%, 24.1
3. European Union-273 – 11%, 10.6
4. Indonesia2 - 6%, 12.9
5. India – 5%, 2.1
6. Russia3 – 5%, 14.9
7. Brazil – 4%, 10.0
8. Japan3 – 3%, 10.6
9. Canada3 – 2%, 23.2
10. Mexico – 2%, 6.4
Notes
• These values are for the GHG emissions from fossil fuel use and cement production. Calculations are for carbon
dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and gases containing fluorine (the F-gases HFCs, PFCs and
SF6).
• These estimates are subject to large uncertainties regarding CO2 emissions from deforestation; and the per country
emissions of other GHGs (e.g., methane). There are also other large uncertainties which mean that small
differences between countries are not significant. CO2 emissions from the decay of remaining biomass after
biomass burning/deforestation are not included.
• 1 excluding underground fires.
• 2 including an estimate of 2000 million tonnes CO2 from peat fires and decomposition of peat soils after draining.
However, the uncertainty range is very large.
• 3 Industrialised countries: official country data reported to UNFCCC

Financial commitments
The Protocol also reaffirms the principle that developed countries have to pay billions of dollars, and supply
technology to other countries for climate-related studies and projects. The principle was originally agreed in
UNFCCC.

Revisions
The protocol left several issues open to be decided later by the sixth Conference of Parties (COP). COP6 attempted
to resolve these issues at its meeting in the Hague in late 2000, but was unable to reach an agreement due to disputes
between the European Union on the one hand (which favoured a tougher agreement) and the United States, Canada,
Japan and Australia on the other (which wanted the agreement to be less demanding and more flexible).
In 2001, a continuation of the previous meeting (COP6bis) was held in Bonn where the required decisions were
adopted. After some concessions, the supporters of the protocol (led by the European Union) managed to get Japan
and Russia in as well by allowing more use of carbon dioxide sinks.
COP7 was held from 29 October 2001 through 9 November 2001 in Marrakech to establish the final details of the
protocol.
Kyoto Protocol 418

The first Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP1) was held in Montreal from 28 November to 9
December 2005, along with the 11th conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP11). See United Nations
Climate Change Conference.
The 3 December 2007, Australia ratified the protocol during the first day of the COP13 in Bali.
Of the signatories, 36 developed C.G. countries (plus the EU as a party in the European Union)agreed to a 10%
emissions increase for Iceland; but, since the EU's member states each have individual obligations,[26] much larger
increases (up to 27%) are allowed for some of the less developed EU countries (see below Kyoto Protocol#Increase
in greenhouse gas emission since 1990).[27] Reduction limitations expire in 2013.

Enforcement
If the enforcement branch determines that an annex I country is not in compliance with its emissions limitation, then
that country is required to make up the difference plus an additional 30%. In addition, that country will be suspended
from making transfers under an emissions trading program.[28]

Negotiations
Article 4.2 of the UNFCCC commits industrialized countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing emissions (Grubb,
2003, p. 144).[22] The initial aim was for industrialized countries to stabilize their emissions at 1990 levels by the
year 2000. The failure of key industrialized countries to move in this direction was a principal reason why Kyoto
moved to binding commitments.
At the first UNFCCC Conference of the Parties in Berlin, the G77 (a lobbying group that represents 133 developing
countries, of which China is an associate (Dessai, 2001, p. 4))[18] was able to push for a mandate where it was
recognized that (Liverman, 2008, p. 12):[29]
• developed nations had contributed most to the then-current concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere
• developing country emissions per-capita were still relatively low
• and that the share of global emissions from developing countries would grow to meet their development needs.
This mandate was recognized in the Kyoto Protocol in that developing countries were not subject to emission
reduction commitments in the first Kyoto commitment period. However, the large potential for growth in developing
country emissions made negotiations on this issue tense (Grubb, 2003, pp. 145-146). In the final agreement, the
Clean Development Mechanism was designed to limit emissions in developing countries, but in such a way that
developing countries do not bear the costs for limiting emissions. The general assumption was that developing
countries would face quantitative commitments in later commitment periods, and at the same time, developed
countries would meet their first round commitments.

Base year
The choice of the 1990 main base year remains in Kyoto, as it does in the original Framework Convention. The
desire to move to historical emissions was rejected on the basis that good data was not available prior to 1990. The
1990 base year also favoured several powerful interests including the UK, Germany and Russia (Liverman, 2008,
p. 12).[29] This is because the UK and Germany had high CO2 emissions in 1990.
In the UK following 1990, emissions had declined because of a switch from coal to gas ("dash for gas"), which has
lower emissions than coal. This was due to the UK's privatization of coal mining and its switch to natural gas
supported by North sea reserves. Germany benefitted from the 1990 base year because of its reunification between
West and East Germany. East Germany's emissions fell dramatically following the collapse of East German industry
after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Germany could therefore take credit for the resultant decline in emissions.
Japan promoted the idea of flexible baselines, and favoured a base year of 1995 for HFCs. Their HFC emissions had
grown in the early 1990s as a substitute for CFCs banned in the Montreal Protocol (Liverman, 2008, p. 13). Some of
Kyoto Protocol 419

the former Soviet satellites wanted a base year to reflect their highest emissions prior to their industrial collapse.
EIT countries are privileged by being able to choose their base-year nearly freely. However the oldest base-year
accepted is 1986.

Emissions cuts
The G77 wanted strong uniform emission cuts across the developed world of 15% (Liverman, 2008, p. 13).[29]
Countries, such as the US, made suggestions to reduce their responsibility to reduce emissions. These suggestions
included:
• the inclusion of carbon sinks (e.g., by including forests, that absorb CO2 from the atmosphere).
• and having net current emissions as the basis for responsibility, i.e., ignoring historical emissions.
The US originally proposed for the second round of negotiations on Kyoto commitments to follow the negotiations
of the first (Grubb, 2003, p. 148).[22] In the end, negotiations on the second period were set to open no later than
2005. Countries over-achieving in their first period commitments can "bank" their unused allowances for use in the
subsequent period.
The EU initially argued for only three GHGs to be included – CO2, CH4, and N2O – with other gases such as HFCs
regulated separately (Liverman, 2008, p. 13). The EU also wanted to have a "bubble" commitment, whereby it could
make a collective commitment that allowed some EU members to increase their emissions, while others cut theirs.
The most vulnerable nations – the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) – pushed for deep uniform cuts by
developed nations, with the goal of having emissions reduced to the greatest possible extent.
The final days of negotiation of the Protocol saw a clash between the EU and the US and Japan (Grubb, 2003,
p. 149). The EU aimed for flat-rate reductions in the range of 10-15% below 1990 levels, while the US and Japan
supported reductions of 0-5%. Countries that had supported differentiation had different ideas as to how it should be
calculated, and many different indicators were proposed: relating to GDP, energy intensity (energy use per unit of
economic output), etc. According to Grubb (2003, p. 149), the only common theme of these indicators was that each
proposal suited the interests of the country making the proposal.
The final commitments negotiated in the Protocol are the result of last minute political compromises (Liverman,
2008, pp. 13-14). These include an 8% cut from the 1990 base year for the EU, 7% for the US, 6% for Canada and
Japan, no cut for Russia, and an 8% increase for Australia. This sums to an overall cut of 5.2% below 1990 levels.
Since Australia and the US did not ratify the treaty (although Australia has since done), the cut is reduced from 5.2%
to about 2%.
Considering the growth of some economies and the collapse of others since 1990, the range of implicit targets is
much greater (Aldy et al., 2003, p. 7).[30] The US faced a cut of about 30% below "business-as-usual" (BAU)
emissions (i.e., predicted emissions should there be no attempt to limit emissions), while Russia and other economies
in transition faced targets that allowed substantial increases in their emissions above BAU. On the other hand, Grubb
(2003, p. 151) pointed out that the US, having per-capita emissions twice that of most other OECD countries, was
vulnerable to the suggestion that it had huge potential for making reductions. From this viewpoint, the US was
obliged to cut emissions back more than other countries.

Flexibility mechanisms
Negotiations over the flexibility mechanisms included in the Protocol proved controversial (Grubb, 2003, p. 153).[22]
Japan and some EU member states wanted to ensure that any emissions trading would be competitive and
transparent. Their intention was to prevent the US from using its political leverage to gain preferential access to the
likely surplus in Russian emission allowances. The EU was also anxious to prevent the US from avoiding domestic
action to reduce its emissions. Developing countries were concerned that the US would use flexibility to its own
advantage, over the interests of weaker countries.
Kyoto Protocol 420

Compliance
The protocol defines a mechanism of "compliance" as a "monitoring compliance with the commitments and penalties
for non-compliance."[31] According to Grubb (2003, p. 157), the explicit consequences of non-compliance of the
treaty are weak compared to domestic law.[22] Yet, the compliance section of the treaty was highly contested in the
Marrakesh Accords. According to Grubb (2003), Japan made some unsuccessful efforts to "water-down" the
compliance package.

2000 onwards
When George W. Bush was elected US president in 2000, he was asked by US Senator Hagel what his
administration's position was on climate change. Bush replied that he took climate change "very seriously," but that
he opposed the Kyoto treaty, because "it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centers such as
China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy" (Dessai, 2001, p. 5).[18]
Almost all world leaders (e.g., China, Japan, South Africa, Pacific islands) expressed their disappointment over
President Bush's decision not to support the treaty (Dessai, 2001, p. 6).
In order for the Protocol to enter into legal effect, it was required that the Protocol was ratified by 55 Parties
including 55% of 1990 Annex I emissions (Dessai, 2001, p. 3).[18] The US accounted for 36% of emissions in 1990,
and without US ratification, only an EU+Russia+Japan+small party coalition could place the treaty into legal effect.
A deal was reached in the Bonn climate talks (COP-6.5), held in 2001. According to the EU, the Kyoto Protocol had
been saved (Dessai, 2001, p. 8). For the G77/China , the Bonn agreement represented the "triumph of multilateralism
over unilateralism" (Dessai, 2001, p. 8).

Ratification process
The Protocol was adopted by COP 3 on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. It was opened on 16 March 1998 for
signature by parties to UNFCCC.
Article 25 of the Protocol specifies that the Protocol enters into force "on the ninetieth day after the date on which
not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Parties included in Annex I which accounted in total for at
least 55% of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the Annex I countries, have deposited their instruments
of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession."
The EU and its Member States ratified the Protocol in May 2002.[32] Of the two conditions, the "55 parties" clause
was reached on 23 May 2002 when Iceland ratified the Protocol. The ratification by Russia on 18 November 2004
satisfied the "55%" clause and brought the treaty into force, effective 16 February 2005, after the required lapse of
90 days.
As of November 2009, 187 countries and one regional economic organization (the EC) have ratified the agreement,
representing over 63.9% of the 1990 emissions from Annex I countries.[2]
Kyoto Protocol 421

Government action and emissions

Annex I
In total, Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC (including the
US) managed a cut of 3.3% in GHG emissions between
1990 and 2004 (UNFCCC, 2007, p. 11).[33] Projections
reported by UNFCCC (2007, p. 11) indicated rising
emissions of 4.2% between 1990 and 2010. This
projection assumed that no further mitigation action
would be taken. The reduction in the 1990s was driven
significantly by economic restructuring in the
economies-in-transition (EITs. See the following
section for the list of EITs). Emission reductions in the
EITs had little to do with climate change policy Carbon emissions from various global regions during the period
[14] 1800–2000 AD
(Carbon Trust, 2009, p. 24). Some reductions in
Annex I emissions have occurred due to policy
measures, such as promoting energy efficiency (UNFCCC, 2007, p. 11).

Progress towards targets


Progress toward the emission reduction commitments set in the Kyoto Protocol has been mixed. World Bank (2008,
p. 6) reported that there were significant differences in performance across individual countries:[34]
• For the Annex I non-Economies-in-Transition (non-EIT) Kyoto Protocol (KP) Parties, emissions in 2005 were
5% higher than 1990 levels (World Bank, 2008, p. 59). Their Kyoto target for 2008-2012 is for a 6% reduction in
emissions. The Annex I non-EITs KP Parties are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand,
Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.
• The Annex I Economies in Transition (EIT) KP Parties emissions in 2005 were 35% below 1990 levels. Their
Kyoto target is for a 2% reduction. The Annex I EIT KP Parties are Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic,
Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Ukraine.
• In 2005, the Annex I non-KP Parties emissions were 18% above their 1990 levels. The Annex I non-KP Parties
are Turkey and the United States (since this assessment was produced, Turkey has ratified the Kyoto Protocol).[35]
• In total, the Annex I KP Parties emissions for 2005 were 14% below their 1990 levels. Their Kyoto target is for a
4% reduction.
KP Parties
According to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL, 2009;[36] n.d.),[37] the industrialized
countries with a Kyoto target will, as a group, probably meet their emission limitation requirements. Collectively,
this was for a 4% reduction relative to 1990 levels. A linear extrapolation of the 2000-2005 emissions trend led to a
projected emission reduction in 2010 of almost 11% (PBL, 2009). Including the potential contribution of CDM
projects, which may account for emissions reductions of approximately 500 megatonnes CO2-eq per year, the
reduction might be as large as 15%.
The expected reduction of 11% was attributed to the limited increase in emissions in OECD countries, but was
particularly due to the large reduction of about 40% until 1999 in the EITs. The reduction in emissions for the
smaller EITs aids the EU-27 in meeting their collective target. The EU expects that it will meet its collective target
of an 8% reduction for the EU-15. This reduction includes:
• CDM and JI projects, which are planned to contribute 2.5% towards the target;
• carbon storage in forests and soils (carbon sinks), which contribute another 0.9%.
Kyoto Protocol 422

Japan expects to meet its Kyoto target, which includes a 1.6% reduction from CDM projects and a 3.9% reduction
from carbon storage, contributing to a total reduction of 5.5%. In other OECD countries, emissions have increased.
In Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Switzerland, emissions have increased by 25% compared to the base year,
while in Norway, the increase was 9%. In the view of PBL (2009), these countries will only be able to meet their
targets by purchasing sufficient CDM credits or by buying emissions ("hot air") from EIT countries.
Non-KP Parties
Emissions in the US have increased 16% since 1990. According to PBL (2009), the US will not meet its original
Kyoto target of a 6% reduction in emissions.[36]

Non-Annex I
UNFCCC (2005) compiled and synthesized information reported to it by non-Annex I Parties.[38] Most non-Annex I
Parties belonged in the low-income group, with very few classified as middle-income. Most Parties included
information on policies relating to sustainable development. Sustainable development priorities mentioned by
non-Annex I Parties included poverty alleviation and access to basic education and health care (UNFCCC, 2005,
p. 6). Many non-Annex I Parties are making efforts to amend and update their environmental legislation to include
global concerns such as climate change (UNFCCC, 2005, p. 7).
A few Parties, e.g., South Africa and Iran, stated their concern over how efforts to reduce emissions could affect their
economies. The economies of these countries are highly dependent on income generated from the production,
processing, and export of fossil fuels.
Emissions
GHG emissions, excluding land use change and forestry (LUCF), reported by 122 non-Annex I Parties for the year
1994 or the closest year reported, totalled 11.7 billion tonnes (billion = 1,000,000,000) of CO2-eq. CO2 was the
largest proportion of emissions (63%), followed by methane (26%) and nitrous oxide (N2O) (11%).
The energy sector was the largest source of emissions for 70 Parties, whereas for 45 Parties the agriculture sector
was the largest. Per capita emissions (in tonnes of CO2-eq, excluding LUCF) averaged 2.8 tonnes for the 122
non-Annex I Parties.
• The Africa region's aggregate emissions were 1.6 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of 2.4 tonnes.
• The Asia and Pacific region's aggregate emissions were 7.9 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of
2.6 tonnes.
• The Latin America and Caribbean region's aggregate emissions were 2 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of
4.6 tonnes.
• The "other" region includes Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Malta, Republic of Moldova, and the former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Their aggregate emissions were 0.1 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of
5.1 tonnes.
Parties reported a high level of uncertainty in LUCF emissions, but in aggregate, there appeared to only be a small
difference of 1.7% with and without LUCF. With LUCF, emissions were 11.9 billion tonnes, without LUCF, total
aggregate emissions were 11.7 billion tonnes.
Trends
In several large developing countries and fast growing economies (China, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, and
Iran) GHG emissions have increased rapidly (PBL, 2009).[36] For example, emissions in China have risen strongly
over the 1990-2005 period, often by more than 10% year. Emissions per-capita in non-Annex I countries are still, for
the most part, much lower than in industrialized countries. Non-Annex I countries do not have quantitative emission
reduction commitments, but they are committed to mitigation actions. China, for example, has had a national policy
programme to reduce emissions growth, which included the closure of old, less efficient coal-fired power plants.
Kyoto Protocol 423

Cost estimates
Barker et al. (2007, p. 79) assessed the literature on cost estimates for the Kyoto Protocol. [39] Due to non-US
participation in the Kyoto treaty, costs estimates were found to be much lower than those estimated in the previous
IPCC Third Assessment Report. Without US participation, and with full use of the Kyoto flexible mechanisms, costs
were estimated at less than 0.05% of Annex B GDP. This compared to earlier estimates of 0.1-1.1%. Without use of
the flexible mechanisms, costs without US participation were estimated at less than 0.1%. This compared to earlier
estimates of 0.2-2%. These cost estimates were viewed as being based on much evidence and high agreement in the
literature.

Views on the Protocol


Gupta et al. (2007) assessed the literature on climate change policy. They found that no authoritative assessments of
the UNFCCC or its Protocol asserted that these agreements had, or will, succeed in solving the climate problem.[7] In
these assessments, it was assumed that the UNFCCC or its Protocol would not be changed. The Framework
Convention and its Protocol include provisions for future policy actions to be taken.
World Bank (2010, p. 233) commented on how the Kyoto Protocol had only had a slight effect on curbing global
emissions growth.[16] The treaty was negotiated in 1997, but by 2005, energy-related emissions had grown 24%.
World Bank (2010) also stated that the treaty had provided only limited financial support to developing countries to
assist them in reducing their emissions and adapting to climate change.
Some of the criticism of the Protocol has been based on the idea of climate justice (Liverman, 2008, p. 14).[29] This
has particularly centred on the balance between the low emissions and high vulnerability of the developing world to
climate change, compared to high emissions in the developed world.
Some environmentalists have supported the Kyoto Protocol because it is "the only game in town," and possibly
because they expect that future emission reduction commitments may demand more stringent emission reductions
(Aldy et al.., 2003, p. 9).[30] In 2001, sixteen national science academies[40] stated that ratification of the Protocol
represented a "small but essential first step towards stabilising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases."[41]
Some environmentalists and scientists have criticized the existing commitments for being too weak (Grubb, 2000,
p. 5).[42]
The lack of quantitative emission commitments for developing countries led to the governments of the United States,
and also Australia under Prime Minister John Howard deciding not to ratify the treaty (Stern 2007, p. 478).[43]
Australia, under former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, has since ratified the treaty,[44] [45] which took effect in March,
2008.[46]
In May 2010 the Hartwell Paper was published by the London School of Economics with funding from the Japan
Iron and Steel Federation, Tokyo, Japan and Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc., Tokyo, Japan .[47]
The authors argued that after what they regard as the failure of the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Summit, the Kyoto
Protocol crashed and they claimed that it "has failed to produce any discernable real world reductions in emissions
of greenhouse gases in fifteen years."[47] [48] They argued that this failure opened an opportunity to set climate policy
free from Kyoto and the paper advocates a controversial and piecemeal approach to decarbonization of the global
economy.[49] [50] [51]

Successor
In the non-binding 'Washington Declaration' agreed on 16 February 2007, Heads of governments from Canada,
France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, United Kingdom, the United States, Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South
Africa agreed in principle on the outline of a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. They envisage a global cap-and-trade
system that would apply to both industrialized nations and developing countries, and hoped that this would be in
place by 2009.[52] [53]
Kyoto Protocol 424

On 7 June 2007, leaders at the 33rd G8 summit agreed that the G8 nations would "aim to at least halve global CO2
emissions by 2050". The details enabling this to be achieved would be negotiated by environment ministers within
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in a process that would also include the major
emerging economies.[54]
A round of climate change talks under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) (Vienna Climate Change Talks 2007) concluded in 31 August 2007 with agreement on key
elements for an effective international response to climate change.[55]
A key feature of the talks was a United Nations report that showed how efficient energy use could yield significant
cuts in emissions at low cost.
The talks were meant to set the stage for a major international meeting to be held in Nusa Dua, Bali, which started on
3 December 2007.[56]
The Conference was held in December 2008 in Poznań, Poland. One of the main topics on this meeting was the
discussion of a possible implementation of avoided deforestation also known as Reducing emissions from
deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) into the future Kyoto Protocol.[57]
After the lack of progress leading to a binding commitment or an extension of the Kyoto commitment period in
climate talks at COP 15 in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2009, there were and will be several further rounds of
negotiation COP 16 in Cancun, Mexico in 2010, South Africa in 2011 (COP 17), and in either Qatar or South Korea
in 2012 (COP 18). Because any treaty change will require the ratification of the text by various countries' legislatures
before the end of the commitment period Dec 31, 2012, it is likely that agreements in South Africa or South
Korea/Qatar will be too late to prevent a gap between the commitment periods.[58]

References
[1] "Article 2" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ essential_background/ convention/ background/ items/ 1353. php). The United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change.. . Retrieved 15 November 2005. "Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to
proceed in a sustainable manner"
[2] "Kyoto Protocol: Status of Ratification" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ files/ kyoto_protocol/ status_of_ratification/ application/ pdf/ kp_ratification.
pdf) (PDF). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2009-01-14. . Retrieved 2009-05-06.
[3] "Methodological issues related to the Kyoto protocol" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ resource/ docs/ cop3/ 07a01. pdf#page=31). Report of the
Conference of the Parties on its third session, held at Kyoto from 1 to 11 December 1997, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change. 1998-03-25. . Retrieved 2010-02-13.
[4] NRC (2001). "Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions" (http:/ / www. nap. edu/ openbook. php?record_id=10139).
National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2010-02-11.
[5] NRC (2008). "Understanding and Responding to Climate Change" (http:/ / americasclimatechoices. org/ climate_change_2008_final. pdf)
(PDF). Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (http:/ / dels. nas. edu/ basc), US National Academy of Sciences. . Retrieved 2011-04-16.
[6] IPCC (2007). "3. Projected climate change and its impacts. In (book section): Summary for Policymakers. In (book): Climate Change 2007:
Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (Core Writing Team et al. (eds.))" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ syr/ en/ spms3. html). Print version: Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2010-03-18.
[7] Gupta, S. et al. (2007). "13.3.1 Evaluations of existing climate change agreements. In (book chapter): Policies, instruments, and co-operative
arrangements." (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ ch13s13-3-1. html). In B. Metz et al. Eds.. Climate Change 2007:
Mitigation.. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print
version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2010-04-02.
[8] Grubb, M. and J. Depledge (2001). "The Seven Myths of Kyoto" (http:/ / www. econ. cam. ac. uk/ rstaff/ grubb/ publications/ JR09. pdf)
(PDF). Climate Policy 1 (2). . Retrieved 2011-04-18.
[9] IPCC (2001). "7.32 Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations would depend upon emissions reductions beyond those agreed to in the Kyoto
Protocol" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ vol4/ english/ 051. htm). In Watson, R.T. and the Core Writing Team. Question 7.
Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the
Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This
version: GRID-Arendal website. . Retrieved 2011-04-16.
[10] United Nations Environment Programme (1997-12-11). "Industrialized countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2%" (http:/ / unfccc.
int/ cop3/ fccc/ info/ indust. htm). Press release. . Retrieved 2007-08-06.
Kyoto Protocol 425

[11] Bashmakov, I. et al. (2001). "Chapter 6 Policies, Measures, and Instruments" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ publications/ other/ ipcc_tar/ ?src=/
climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg3/ 454. htm). In B. Metz et al. Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Third
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y.,
U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[12] Toth, F.L. et al. (2001). "Decision-making Frameworks." (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports.
htm). In B. Metz et al. Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. . Retrieved
2010-01-10.
[13] Gupta, S. et al. (2007). "13.3.3.4.2 Flexibility provisions. In (book chapter): Policies, instruments, and co-operative arrangements." (http:/ /
www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ ch13s13-3-3-4. html). In B. Metz et al.. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution
of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2010-04-02.
[14] Carbon Trust (March 2009). "Global Carbon Mechanisms: Emerging lessons and implications (CTC748)" (http:/ / www. carbontrust. co. uk/
Publications/ pages/ publicationdetail. aspx?id=CTC748& respos=2& q=global+ carbon+ market& o=Rank& od=asc& pn=0& ps=10).
Carbon Trust website. . Retrieved 2010-03-31.
[15] Grubb, M. et al. (3 August 2009). "Climate Policy and Industrial Competitiveness: Ten Insights from Europe on the EU Emissions Trading
System" (http:/ / www. climatestrategies. org/ our-reports/ category/ 17/ 204. html). Climate Strategies. . Retrieved 2010-04-14.
[16] World Bank (2010). "World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change" (http:/ / go. worldbank. org/ BKLQ9DSDU0).
The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433. . Retrieved
2010-04-06.
[17] Morita, T. et al. (2001). "2.5.2.3 Comparison of Quantified Stabilization Scenarios" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg3/ 083.
htm#2523). In B. Metz et al.. 2. Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Scenarios and Implications. Climate Change 2001: Mitigation.
Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version:
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: GRID-Arendal website. doi:10.2277/0521015022.
ISBN 9780521015028. . Retrieved 2011-04-16.
[18] Dessai, S. (2001). "The climate regime from The Hague to Marrakech: Saving or sinking the Kyoto Protocol?" (http:/ / www. tyndall. ac. uk/
content/ climate-regime-hague-marrakech-saving-or-sinking-kyoto-protocol). Tyndall Centre Working Paper 12. Tyndall Centre website. .
Retrieved 2010-05-05.
[19] IPCC (2007). "Glossary J-P. In (section): Annex II Glossary. In (book):" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ syr/ en/
annexessglossary-j-p. html). In Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A.. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I,
II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team,. IPCC, Geneva,
Switzerland (web version). ISBN 9291691224. . Retrieved 2010-05-28.
[20] "The full text of the convention" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ essential_background/ convention/ background/ items/ 1353. php). The United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change. . Retrieved 5 November 2006.
[21] Banuri, T. et al. (1996). "Equity and Social Considerations.". In J.P. Bruce et al.. Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of
Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. doi:10.2277/0521568544. ISBN 9780521568548.
[22] Grubb, M. (July–September 2003). "The Economics of the Kyoto Protocol" (http:/ / www. econ. cam. ac. uk/ rstaff/ grubb/ publications/
J36. pdf). World Economics 4 (3): 143–189. . Retrieved 2010-03-25.
[23] PBL (24 February 2010). "Dossier Climate Change: FAQs. Question 10: Which are the top-20 CO2 or GHG emitting countries?" (http:/ /
www. pbl. nl/ en/ dossiers/ Climatechange/ FAQs/ index. html?vraag=10& title=Which are the top-20 CO2 or GHG emitting countries?#10).
Netherlands Environment Agency website. . Retrieved 2010-05-01.
[24] IEA (2007). "World Energy Outlook 2007 Edition- China and India Insights" (http:/ / www. iea. org/ publications/ free_new_Desc.
asp?PUBS_ID=1927). International Energy Agency (IEA), Head of Communication and Information Office, 9 rue de la Fédération, 75739
Paris Cedex 15, France. pp. 600. . Retrieved 2010-05-04.
[25] MNP (2007). "Greenhouse gas emissions of countries in 2005 and ranking of their per capita emissions" (http:/ / www. pbl. nl/ images/
Top20-CO2andGHG-countries-in2006-2005(GB)_tcm61-36276. xls). Netherlands Environment Agency website. . Retrieved 2010-05-01.
[26] "The Kyoto protocol – A brief summary" (http:/ / ec. europa. eu/ environment/ climat/ kyoto. htm). European Commission. . Retrieved
2007-04-19.
[27] "Kyoto Protocol" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ kyoto_protocol/ background/ items/ 3145. php). UNFCCC. 2008-05-14. . Retrieved 2009-05-21.
[28] "An Introduction to the Kyoto Protocol Compliance Mechanism" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ kyoto_mechanisms/ compliance/ introduction/ items/
3024. php). UNFCC. . Retrieved 2006-10-30.
[29] Liverman, D.M. (2008). "Conventions of climate change: constructions of danger and the dispossession of the atmosphere" (http:/ / www.
eci. ox. ac. uk/ ~dliverma/ CV/ JHGE07-17. pdf). Journal of Historical Geography 35 (2): 279. doi:10.1016/j.jhg.2008.08.008. . Retrieved
2009-08-08.
[30] Aldy, J.E. et al. (September 9, 2003). "Thirteen Plus One: A Comparison of Global Climate Policy Architectures" (http:/ / belfercenter. ksg.
harvard. edu/ publication/ 17261/ thirteen_plus_one. html). Climate Policy 3 (3): 373–397. doi:10.1016/j.clipol.2003.09.004. . Retrieved
2010-04-02.
Kyoto Protocol 426

[31] Compliance with the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change, S. Maljean-Dubois, Synthèse, n° 01, 2007, Institute for Sustainable Development
and International Relations. (http:/ / www. iddri. org/ Publications/ Collections/ Syntheses/
Compliance-with-the-Kyoto-Protocol-on-Climate-Change)
[32] European Union (2002-05-31). "European Union ratifies the Kyoto Protocol" (http:/ / europa. eu/ rapid/ pressReleasesAction.
do?reference=IP/ 02/ 794& format=HTML& aged=0& language=EN& guiLanguage=en). Press release. . Retrieved 2010-02-13.
[33] UNFCCC (19 November 2007). "Compilation and synthesis of fourth national communications. Executive summary. Note by the
secretariat. Document code: FCCC/SBI/2007/INF.6" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ documentation/ documents/ advanced_search/ items/ 3594.
php?rec=j& priref=600004368#beg). United Nations Office at Geneva, Switzerland. . Retrieved 2010-05-17.
[34] World Bank (2008). "Development and Climate Change: A Strategic Framework for the World Bank Group: Technical Report" (http:/ /
beta. worldbank. org/ overview/ strategic-framework-development-and-climate-change). The International Bank for Reconstruction and
Development / The World Bank. 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433. . Retrieved 2010-04-03.
[35] UNFCCC (n.d.). "Status of Ratification" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ kyoto_protocol/ status_of_ratification/ items/ 2613. php). UNFCCC website. .
Retrieved 2011-04-16.
[36] PBL (October 16, 2009). "Industrialised countries will collectively meet 2010 Kyoto target" (http:/ / www. pbl. nl/ en/ dossiers/ COP13Bali/
moreinfo/ Industrialised-countries-will-collectively-meet-2010-Kyoto-target. html). Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)
website. . Retrieved 2010-04-03.
[37] PBL (n.d.). "Industrialised countries will meet collective Kyoto target of -4.2% for 2010. On web page: Frequently Asked Questions - PBL
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency" (http:/ / www. pbl. nl/ en/ dossiers/ climatechange/ faqs). PBL website. . Retrieved
2011-04-16.
[38] UNFCCC (25 October 2005). "Sixth compilation and synthesis of initial national communications from Parties not included in Annex I to
the Convention. Note by the secretariat. Executive summary. Document code FCCC/SBI/2005/18" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ documentation/
documents/ advanced_search/ items/ 3594. php?rec=j& priref=600003578#beg). United Nations Office at Geneva, Switzerland. . Retrieved
2010-05-20.
[39] Barker T., et al. (2007). "Mitigation costs across sectors and macro-economic costs" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/
wg3/ en/ tssts-ts-11-2-mitigation-costs. html). In B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer. Technical summary. Climate
Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. This version: IPCC website.
ISBN 9780521880114. . Retrieved 2011-04-16.
[40] the Australian Academy of Science, the Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts, the Brazilian Academy of Sciences,
the Royal Society of Canada, the Caribbean Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the French Academy of Sciences, the
German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina, the Indian National Science Academy, the Indonesian Academy of Sciences, the Royal
Irish Academy, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy), the Academy of Sciences Malaysia, the Academy Council of the Royal Society of
New Zealand, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, and the Royal Society (UK)
[41] Joint academies' statement (May 18, 2001). "The Science of Climate Change (editorial)" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ short/
292/ 5520/ 1261). Science 292 (5520): 1261. doi:10.1126/science.292.5520.1261. . Retrieved 2010-04-03.
[42] Grubb, M. (April 2000). "The Kyoto Protocol: An Economic Appraisal. FEEM Working Paper No. 30 2000" (http:/ / ssrn. com/
abstract=229280). SSRN. doi:10.2139/ssrn.229280. . Retrieved 2010-04-02.
[43] Stern, N. (2007). "Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (pre-publication edition)" (http:/ / www. hm-treasury. gov. uk/
sternreview_index. htm). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2010-02-25.
[44] "Govt still not serious about climate change: Labor" (http:/ / abc. net. au/ news/ newsitems/ 200610/ s1772952. htm). ABC News Online.
2006-10-26. . Retrieved 2006-10-30.
[45] BBC (3 December 2007). "Rudd takes Australia inside Kyoto" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ world/ asia-pacific/ 7124236. stm). BBC
News. . Retrieved 2007-12-05.
[46] "Australia's Rudd sworn in as PM" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ asia-pacific/ 7124236. stm). BBC News (BBC). 2007-12-03. . Retrieved
2007-12-03.
[47] Prins, Gwyn et. al (May 2010). "The Hartwell Paper - A new direction for climate policy after the crash of 2009" (http:/ / eprints. lse. ac. uk/
27939/ 1/ HartwellPaper_English_version. pdf). London School of Economics. . Retrieved 2010-05-12.
[48] Mike Hulme (2010-05-11). "After the crash - a new direction for climate policy" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 8673828.
stm). BBC News. . Retrieved 2010-05-12.
[49] Andrew C. Revkin (2010-05-11). "A Tough Observer of Climate Prescriptions" (http:/ / dotearth. blogs. nytimes. com/ 2010/ 05/ 11/
a-tough-observer-of-climate-prescriptions/ ?ref=earth). The New York Times. . Retrieved 2010-05-12.
[50] "Oblique strategies" (http:/ / www. economist. com/ world/ international/ displaystory. cfm?story_id=16099521). The Economist.
2010-05-11. . Retrieved 2010-05-12.
[51] "Do You Heart 'The Hartwell Paper'?" (http:/ / news. sciencemag. org/ scienceinsider/ 2010/ 05/ do-you-heart-the-hartwell-paper. html).
Science Insider. 2010-05-12. . Retrieved 2010-05-12.
[52] "Politicians sign new climate pact" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ sci/ tech/ 6364663. stm). BBC. 2007-02-16. . Retrieved 2007-05-28.
[53] "Global leaders reach climate change agreement" (http:/ / environment. guardian. co. uk/ climatechange/ story/ 0,,2014683,00. html).
Guardian Unlimited. 2007-02-16. . Retrieved 2007-05-28.
Kyoto Protocol 427

[54] "Breakthrough on climate protection" (http:/ / www. g-8. de/ nn_92160/ Content/ EN/ Artikel/ __g8-summit/
2007-06-07-g8-klimaschutz__en. html). G8 Summit 2007 Heiligendamm. 2007-06-07. . Retrieved 2007-06-07.
[55] United Nations (2007-08-31). "Vienna UN conference shows consensus on key building blocks for effective international response to
climate change" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ files/ press/ news_room/ press_releases_and_advisories/ application/ pdf/
20070831_vienna_closing_press_release. pdf) (PDF). Press release. . Retrieved 2007-10-12.
[56] CBC News (2007-12-03). "UN climate change conference hails Australia Kyoto signing" (http:/ / www. cbc. ca/ world/ story/ 2007/ 12/ 03/
un-climate. html). Press release. .
[57] Walsh, Bryan (2008-12-04). "Green Banks: Paying Countries to Keep their Trees" (http:/ / timeinc8-sd11. websys. aol. com/ time/ nation/
article/ 0,8599,1864302,00. html). Time Magazine. . Retrieved 2009-05-21.
[58] UNFCCC (2010-07-20). "Legal considerations relating to a possible gap between the first and subsequent commitment periods" (http:/ /
unfccc. int/ resource/ docs/ 2010/ awg13/ eng/ 10. pdf). Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto
Protocol. . Retrieved 2010-08-03.

Further reading
• Depledge, J. (August 1999/August 2000). "Tracing the Origins of the Kyoto Protocol: An Article-by-Article
Textual History" (http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/tp/tp0200.pdf). UNFCCC Technical paper. Retrieved
2009-05-20.
• Ekardt, F./von Hövel, A.: Distributive Justice, Competitiveness, and Transnational Climate Protection. In:
Carbon & Climate Law Review, Vol. 3., 2009, p. 102–114.
• Kogan, Lawrence A. (June 2002). "The U.S. Response to the Kyoto Protocol – A Realistic Alternative?" (http://
blogs.shu.edu/projects/diplomacy/archives/5_kogan.pdf). The Whitehead Journal of Diplomacy and
International Relations, Volume III, Number 2. Retrieved 2001-10-20.
Economics
• Weyant, J.P. (ed) (May 1999). "The Costs of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation" (http://emf.
stanford.edu/publications/the_costs_of_the_kyoto_protocol_a_multimodel_evaluation/). Energy Journal
(Special issue). Retrieved 2009-08-08. From this issue:
• Manne, A.S. and R. Richels. The Kyoto Protocol: A Cost-Effective Strategy for Meeting Environmental
Objectives? (http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/38/53/1923159.pdf). Retrieved 2009-08-08.
• Nordhaus, W.D. and J.G. Boyer. Requiem for Kyoto: An Economic Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol (http://
www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/Kyoto.pdf). Retrieved 2009-08-08.

External links
• Full text of the Kyoto Protocol (HTML version) (http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.html), (PDF
version) (http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf) (Alternate HTML version) (http://kyoto.
internationalnetwork.com/)
• Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at Law-Ref.org (http://law-ref.
org/KYOTO/index.html) – fully indexed and crosslinked with other documents
• List of countries who have ratified, accepted, approved, or accessed the Kyoto Protocol (http://unfccc.int/files/
essential_background/kyoto_protocol/application/pdf/kpstats.pdf)
• The layman's guide to the Kyoto Protocol (http://mindprod.com/environment/kyoto.html)
• 2008 [[Cap and trade (http://lieberman.senate.gov/documents/amendment.pdf)] Bill in the U.S. Senate]
• The case against carbon trading by The Rising Tide Environmentalist Group (http://risingtide.org.uk/book/
print/101)
• Text of the Protocol (http://www.worldinbalance.net/intagreements/1997-kyotoprotocol.php) at the Center for
a World in Balance
• Kyoto: On Target? - Google Docs (https://spreadsheets.google.com/
ccc?key=0AmCeWwNKr6FmdGZLWGotWGNfcUtYWmkyalJIb21vbnc&hl=en<br ></a>#gid=0)
Kyoto Protocol 428

• 2010 Climate Talks in Jeopardy as Industrialized Nations Threaten Kyoto Protocol (http://www.democracynow.
org/2010/12/6/climate_talks_in_jeopardy_as_industrialized) - video report by Democracy Now!

2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference


United Nations Climate Change
Conference (COP15)

Information

Date: 7–18 December 2009

Location: Bella Center, Copenhagen, Denmark

Participants: UNFCCC member countries

UN Chronicle: [1]
Special Climate Change Issue .

The 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference, commonly


known as the Copenhagen Summit, was held at the Bella Center in
Copenhagen, Denmark, between 7 December and 18 December. The
conference included the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP 15) to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the 5th
Meeting of the Parties (MOP 5) to the Kyoto Protocol. According to
the Bali Road Map, a framework for climate change mitigation beyond
2012 was to be agreed there.[3]

The conference was preceded by the Climate Change: Global Risks,


Challenges and Decisions scientific conference, which took place in
March 2009 and was also held at the Bella Center. The negotiations Connie Hedegaard, former president of the UN
Climate Change Conference 2009 in Copenhagen
began to take a new format when in May 2009 UN Secretary General
(left chair to Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke
Ban Ki-moon attended the World Business Summit on Climate Change [2]
Rasmussen on 16 December)
in Copenhagen, organised by the Copenhagen Climate Council (COC),
where he requested that COC councillors attend New York's Climate Week at the Summit on Climate Change on 22
September and engage with heads of government on the topic of the climate problem.[4]

Connie Hedegaard was president of the conference until December 16, 2009, handing over the chair to Danish Prime
Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen in the final stretch of the conference, during negotiations between heads of state and
government.[2] On Friday 18 December, the final day of the conference, international media reported that the climate
talks were "in disarray".[5] [6] [7] Media also reported that in lieu of a summit collapse, solely a "weak political
statement" was anticipated at the conclusion of the conference.[8] [9]
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 429

The Copenhagen Accord was drafted by the US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa on December 18, and judged
a "meaningful agreement" by the United States government. It was "taken note of", but not "adopted", in a debate of
all the participating countries the next day, and it was not passed unanimously. The document recognised that
climate change is one of the greatest challenges of the present day and that actions should be taken to keep any
temperature increases to below 2°C. The document is not legally binding and does not contain any legally binding
commitments for reducing CO2 emissions.[10] Many countries and non-governmental organisations were opposed to
this agreement, but, as of January 4, 2010, 138 countries have signed the agreement. Tony Tujan of the IBON
Foundation suggests the perceived failure of Copenhagen may prove useful, if it allows people to unravel some of
the underlying misconceptions and work towards a new, more holistic view of things.[11] This could help gain the
support of developing countries. Malta's Ambassador for Climate Change, Michael Zammit Cutajar, extends this to
suggest "the shock has made people more open to dialogue" [12]
The reason for the apparent failure of this summit was revealed in December 2010 as a set of United States
diplomatic cables were released by WikiLeaks. They showed that United States and People's Republic of China, the
world's top two carbon dioxide emitters,[13] joined forces to stymie every attempt made in the summit to reach an
agreement. The secret framework for cooperation between two countries was outlined in May 2009 when John
Kerry, chairman of the United States Senate Foreign Relations Committee met Prime Minister of China, Li Keqiang.
It was revealed that in this meeting, Chinese were told that Washington could understand "China's resistance to
accepting mandatory targets at the United Nations Climate Conference, which will take place in Copenhagen" and "a
new basis for 'major cooperation' between the United States and China on climate change" was outlined, effectively
deterring world leaders from reaching a strong conclusion on climate change mitigation beyond 2012.[14] [15]

Background and lead-up

Negotiating position of the European Union


On 28 January 2009, the European Commission released a position paper, "Towards a comprehensive climate
agreement in Copenhagen."[16] The position paper "addresses three key challenges: targets and actions; financing [of
"low-carbon development and adaptation"]; and building an effective global carbon market".[17]
Leading by example, the European Union had committed to implementing binding legislation, even without a
satisfactory deal in Copenhagen. Last December, the European Union revised its carbon allowances system called
the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) designed for the post-Kyoto period (after 2013). This new stage of the system
aims at further reducing greenhouse gases emitted in Europe in a binding way and at showing the commitments the
EU had already done before the Copenhagen meeting. To avoid carbon leakage—relocation of companies in other
regions not complying with similar legislation—the EU Commission will foresee that sectors exposed to
international competition, should be granted some free allocations of CO2 emissions provided that they are at least at
the same level of a benchmark. Other sectors should buy such credits on an international market. Energy intensive
industries in Europe have advocated for this benchmark system in order to keep funds in investment capacities for
low carbon products rather than for speculations.[18] The European chemical industry claims here the need to be
closer to the needs of citizens in a sustainable way. To comply with such commitments for a low-carbon economy,
this requires competitiveness and innovations.[19]
The French Minister for Ecology Jean-Louis Borloo pushes the creation of the Global Environment Organisation as
France's main institutional contribution, to offer a powerful alternative to the UNEP.
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 430

Official pre-Copenhagen negotiation meetings


A draft negotiating text[20] [21] for finalisation at Copenhagen was publicly released. It was discussed at a series of
meetings before Copenhagen.

Bonn – second negotiating meeting


Delegates from 183 countries met in Bonn from 1 to 12 June 2009. The purpose was to discuss key negotiating texts.
These served as the basis for the international climate change agreement at Copenhagen. At the conclusion the Ad
Hoc Working Group under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) negotiating group was still far away from the emission
reduction range that has been set out by science to avoid the worst ravages of climate change: a minus 25% to minus
40% reduction below 1990 levels by 2020. The AWG-KP still needs to decide on the aggregate emission reduction
target for industrialised countries, along with individual targets for each country. Progress was made in gaining
clarification of the issues of concern to parties and including these concerns in the updated draft of the negotiating
text.[22]

Seventh session

Bangkok
The first part of the seventh session of the AWG-LCA was held in Bangkok, Thailand, from Monday, 28 September
until 9 October, at the United Nations Conference Centre (UNCC) of the United Nations Economic and Social
Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP), Bangkok, Thailand.[23]

Barcelona
The resumed session was held in Barcelona, Spain, from 2 to 6 November 2009. Thereafter, the AWG-LCA met to
conclude its work at its eighth session, concurrently with the fifteenth session of the Conference of the Parties which
opened in Copenhagen on 7 December 2009.

Listing of proposed actions

Proposed changes in absolute emissions


Area 1990→2020 Reference base

Norway −30% to −40% CO2e w/o LULUCF

Japan −25%

EU −20 to −30% CO2e w/o LULUCF @ 20%

CO2e w/- LULUCF @ 30%

Russia −20 to −25%

South Africa −18%

Iceland −15% CO2e w/- LULUCF

New Zealand −10 to −20% CO2e w/- COP15 LULUCF

Australia −4 to −24% CO2e w/o LULUCF

−15 to −33% CO2e w/- human LULUCF

United States −4% CO2e w/o LULUCF

Canada +2.5% CO2e (LULUCF undecided)

Brazil +5 to −1.8%

Area 2005→2020 Reference base


2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 431

China −40 to −45% (per GDP) CO2 emissions intensity

India −20 to −25% (per GDP) CO2e emissions intensity

During the conference some countries stated what actions they were proposing to take if a binding agreement was
achieved. In the end, no such agreement was reached and the actions will instead be debated in 2010. Listing by
country or political union. Sections in alphabetic order, table according to higher objectives.

Australia
To cut carbon emissions by 25% below 2000 levels by 2020 if the world agrees to an ambitious global deal to
stabilise levels of CO2e to 450 ppm or lower.[24] [25]
To cut carbon emissions by 15% below 2000 levels by 2020 if there is an agreement where major developing
economies commit to substantially restrain emissions and advanced economies take on commitments comparable to
Australia.[24] [25] [26]
To cut carbon emissions by 5% below 2000 levels by 2020 unconditionally.[24] [25] [26]
It is clearly stated in proceedings from the Australian Senate[27] and policy statements from the government[26] [28]
[29]
that the Australian emission reductions include land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) with the form
of inclusion remaining undecided and whilst acknowledging that they are subject to the forming of accounting
guidelines from this Copenhagen conference. In contention is the Australian Government's preference for the
removal of non-human induced LULUCF emissions – and perhaps their abatement – from the account, such as from
lightning induced bushfires and the subsequent natural carbon sequestering regrowth.[30]
Using Kyoto accounting guidelines, these proposals are equivalent to an emissions cut of 24%,[27] [28] 14%[27] [28]
and 4%[27] [28] below 1990 levels by 2020 respectively. Raw use of UNFCCC CO2e data including LULUCF as
defined during the conference by the UNFCCC for the years 2000 (404.392 Tg CO2e[31] [32] [33] [34] [35] ) and 1990
(453.794 Tg CO2e[31] [32] [33] [34] [35] ) leads to apparent emissions cuts of 33% (303.294 Tg CO2e), 25% (343.733
Tg CO2e) and 15% (384.172 Tg CO2e) respectively.[36]

Belarus
To reduce emissions by 5-10% below 1990 levels by 2020.[25] [26]

Brazil
To cut emissions by 38–42% below projected 2020 levels (if no action was taken) by the year 2020.[37]
This is equivalent to a change to emissions to between 5% above and 1.8% below 1990 levels by 2020.[38]

Canada
In 2009 the goal was to cut carbon emissions by 20% below 2006 levels by 2020; an equivalent of 3% below
1990 levels by 2020.[25] [26] [36] [39] The goal was later changed in early 2010 to 17% of 2005 levels by 2020; an
equivalent of 2.5% above 1990 levels.[40] [41]
The three most populous provinces disagree with the federal government goal and announced more ambitious targets
on their jurisdictions. Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia announced respectively 20%, 15% and 14% reduction
target below their 1990 levels while Alberta is expecting a 58% increase in emissions.[42]
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 432

People's Republic of China


To cut CO2 emissions intensity by 40–45% below 2005 levels by 2020.[25] [43] [44]

Costa Rica
To become carbon neutral by 2021.[25]

European Union

To cut greenhouse gas emissions by 30% (including LULUCF[26] ) below 1990 levels by 2020 if an international
agreement is reached committing other developed countries and the more advanced developing nations to
comparable emission reductions.[25] [26] [45] [46] [47]
To cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (excluding LULUCF[26] [48]
) below 1990 levels by 2020
unconditionally.[25] [26] [45] [46] [47]
Member country Germany has offered to reduce its CO2 emissions by 40% below 1990 levels by 2020.[49]

Iceland
To cut carbon emissions by 15% below 1990 levels by 2020.[25]

India

To cut carbon emissions intensity by 20–25% below 2005 levels by


2020.[25] [50]

Indonesia

To reduce carbon emissions by 26% by 2020, based on


business-as-usual levels. With enhanced international assistance,
President of Indonesia Dr. Yudhoyono offered an increased reduction
of 41% by 2020, based on business-as-usual levels.[25] [36] [51] India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (blue)
and Indian Minister of Environment and Forests
Jairam Ramesh (behind) during a multilateral
Japan
meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama,
To cut greenhouse gas emissions by 25% below 1990 levels by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, Brazilian President
Lula da Silva and South African President Jacob
2020.[25] [52]
Zuma at the United Nations Climate Change
Conference.
Kazakhstan

To cut greenhouse gas emissions by 15% below 1992 levels by 2020.[25]

Liechtenstein

To cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20-30% below 1990 levels by 2020.[25]

Maldives

To become carbon neutral by 2019.[25]

Mexico

To reduce emissions 50% by 2050 below 2000 levels.[25]


2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 433

Monaco
To cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2020.[25]

New Zealand
To reduce emissions between 10% to 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 if a global agreement is secured that limits
carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) to 450 ppm and temperature increases to 2°C, effective rules on forestry, and New
Zealand having access to international carbon markets.[25] [53]

Norway
To reduce carbon emissions by 30% below 1990 levels by 2020.[25] [26]
During his speech at the conference, Prime Minister of Norway Jens Stoltenberg offered a 40% cut in emissions
below 1990 levels by 2020 if it could contribute to an agreement.[25] [54]

Philippines
To reduce emissions 5% below 1990 levels.[25]

Russia
Prior to the meeting, Russia pledged to reduce emissions between 20% to 25% below 1990 levels by 2020 if a
global agreement is reached committing other countries to comparable emission reductions.[55] This target had not
been announced to the UNFCCC Secretariat before the COP 15 meeting. In the COP 15 negotiations, Russia only
pledged to make a 10% to 15% reduction below 1990 levels by 2020 as part of a commitment to the Kyoto Protocol,
but said that it would reduce emissions by 20% to 25% as part of an agreement on long-term cooperative action.[25]

Singapore
To reduce emissions by 16% by 2020, based on business-as-usual levels.[25]

South Africa
To cut emissions by 34% below current expected levels by 2020.[25] [56]
This is equivalent to an absolute emissions cut of about 18% below 1990 levels by 2020.[57]

South Korea
To reduce emissions unilaterally by 4% below 2005 levels by 2020.[25] [58]

Switzerland

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20-30% below 1990 levels by 2020.[25] [26]

Ukraine
To reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2020.[25] [26]

United States of America


To cut greenhouse gas emissions by 17% below 2005 levels by 2020, 42% by 2030 and 83% by 2050.[25] [59] [60]
Raw use of UNFCCC CO2e data excluding LULUCF as defined during the conference by the UNFCCC for the
years 2005 (7802.213 Tg CO2e[31] ) and 1990 (6084.490 Tg CO2e[31] ) leads to apparent emissions cuts of about
4%[61] [62] [63] (5878.24 Tg CO2e), 33% (4107.68 Tg CO2e) and 80% (1203.98 Tg CO2e) respectively.[36]
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 434

Technology measures

UNEP
At the fifth Magdeburg Environmental Forum held from 3 to 4 July 2008, in Magdeburg, Germany, United Nations
Environment Programme called for the establishment of infrastructure for electric vehicles. At this international
conference, 250 high-ranking representatives from industry, science, politics and non-government organizations
discussed solutions for future road transportation under the motto of "Sustainable Mobility– United Nations Climate
Change Conference 2009|the Post-2012 CO2 Agenda".[64]

Technology Action Programs


Technology Action Programs (TAPs) have been proposed as a means for organizing future technology efforts under
the UNFCCC. By creating programs for a set of adaptation and mitigation technologies, the UNFCCC would send
clear signals to the private and finance sector, governments, research institutions as well as citizens of the world
looking for solutions to the climate problem. Potential focus areas for TAPs include early warning systems,
expansion of salinity-tolerant crops, electric vehicles, wind and solar energy, efficient energy grid systems, and other
technologies.[65]
Technology roadmaps will address barriers to technology transfer, cooperative actions on technologies and key
economic sectors, and support implementation of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)[66] and
National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs).[67]

Side Event on Technology Transfer


The United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO) and the Department of Economic and Social
Affairs (UNDESA) have been assigned the task of co-convening a process to support UN system-wide coherence
and international cooperation on climate change-related technology development and transfer. This COP15 Side
Event will feature statements and input from the heads of UNDESA, UNDP, GEF, WIPO, UNIDO, UNEP, IRENA
as well as the UN Foundation. Relevant topics such as the following will be among the many issues discussed:[68]
• Technology Needs Assessments (TNA)[69] [70]
• The Poznan Strategic Programme on Technology Transfer[71]
• UN-ENERGY[72]
• Regional Platforms and Renewable Energy Technologies

Related public actions


The Danish government and key industrial organizations have entered a public-private partnership to promote
Danish cleantech solutions. The partnership, Climate Consortium Denmark, is an integrated part of the official
portfolio of activities before, during and after the COP15.[73]
There is also a European Conference for the Promotion of Local Actions to Combat Climate Change.[74] [75]
The
entire morning session on 25 September was devoted to the Covenant of Mayors.[76]
The Local Government Climate Lounge will be an advocacy and meeting space located directly in the COP 15
building, at the heart of the negotiations.[77]
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 435

The Conference

Activism
Some small protests occurred during the first week of the
conference.[78] A much larger march was held in Copenhagen on
December 12 calling for a global agreement on climate. Between
40,000 and 100,000 people attended.[79] 968 protesters were detained
at the event, including 19 who were arrested for carrying pocket knives
and wearing masks during the demonstration. Of these all but 13 were
released without charge. One police officer was injured by a rock and a
protester was injured by fireworks.[78] Some protestors were kettled by
police and detained for several hours without access to food, water or
Demonstrators in Copenhagen
toilets,[80] before being arrested and taken to a holding facility on
coaches.[81] Protestors were said to be angry at the use of what they
considered "heavy-handed" police tactics.[79] Activists claimed that the
police used wire-taps, undercover officers and pepper spray on people
who had been detained.[82] The police said the measures were
necessary to deal with organisations such as Never Trust A COP which
stated on its website that it would "consciously attack the structures
supporting the COP15". Per Larsen, the chief coordinating officer for
the Copenhagen police force told the New York Times that it was
"surely the biggest police action we have ever had in Danish
history."[83] The December 12 demonstration moving down
Amagerbrogade

The Yes Men made a false statement purporting to be from the


Canadian environment minister Jim Prentice, which pledged to cut carbon emissions by 40% below 1990 levels by
2020. The statement was followed by another faked statement from the Ugandan delegation, praising the original
pledge and The Yes Men also released a spoof press conference on a fake form of the official website. The statement
was written about by the Wall Street Journal before being revealed as a hoax. Jim Prentice described the hoax as
"undesirable".[84]

Four Greenpeace activists gatecrashed a dinner that heads of states were attending on December 18. They unfurled
banners saying "Politicians talk, leaders act" before being arrested. They were held without charge for almost three
weeks and were not questioned by police until two weeks after their arrest.[85]

International activism
An estimated 20,000 people took part in a march held in London, one week before the conference started. They
called on British leaders to force developed nations to cut their emissions by 40% by 2020 and to provide $150
billion a year by 2020 to assist the world's poorest countries in adapting to climate change.[86]
As many as 50,000 people took part in a number of marches in Australia, during the conference, calling for world
leaders to create a strong and binding agreement.[87] The largest march took place in Melbourne.[88]
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 436

Klimaforum09 - People's Climate Summit


An alternative conference, Klimaforum09, was attended by about
50,000 people during the conference.[89] [90] Environmental activists
from regions of the world most affected by climate change convened at
Klimaforum09 with leaders such as Vandana Shiva, founder of
Navdanya, and author Naomi Klein.[91] A People's Declaration was
formulated before and during the People's Climate Summit calling for
"System change - not climate change" and handed over to the 15th
Conference of the Parties at December 18.[92] [93]

The Danish Text


A leaked document known as "The Danish Text" has started an
argument between developed and developing nations. The document Wahu Kaara (Global justice activist / Kenya Debt
was subtitled as "The Copenhagen Agreement" and proposes measures Relief Network) spoke at the closing ceremony at
to keep average global temperature rises to two degrees Celsius above Klimaforum09 - People's Climate Summit in
Copenhagen December 2009.
pre-industrial levels. Developing countries reacted to the document by
saying that the developed countries had worked behind closed doors
and made an agreement according to their wish without the consent of the developing nations. Lumumba Stanislaus
Di-Aping, chairman of the G77, said, "It's an incredibly imbalanced text intended to subvert, absolutely and
completely, two years of negotiations. It does not recognize the proposals and the voice of developing countries".[94]
A confidential analysis of the text by developing countries showed deep unease over details of the text.[95]

Indigenous rights
Indigenous rights organization Survival International has raised concerns that some measures to mitigate the problem
of climate change affect the survival of tribal people as much as climate change.[96] [97] [98] [99] The United Nations
Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues has expressed similar concerns. Stephen Corry, director of Survival
International, explains that "projects that victimise the people and harm the environment cannot be promoted or
marketed as green projects". Survival International calls attention to the fact that these people, who least contribute
to the problem of climate change, are already the most affected by it; and that we must seek solutions that involve
indigenous people.[100] Andrew E. Miller, human rights campaigner at Amazon Watch, said, "Many indigenous
peoples, understandably, are skeptical that the latest silver bullet is really in their interest. In fact, serious concerns
have arisen that implementation of REDD [Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation] could
counteract fundamental indigenous rights, in the same way that countless conservation schemes have limited local
subsistence activities and led to displacement around the world."[101] Similar criticism came out of the climate
justice network Climate Justice Now!.
In March 2010, Executive Secretary, Estebancio Castro, of the International Alliance of Indigenous Tribal Peoples of
the Tropical Forests suggested that "indigenous people need recognition of their rights at the local and national level,
to be reflected in the negotiating process."[102]

Negotiating problems
On December 16, The Guardian reported that the summit in Copenhagen was in jeopardy. "We have made no
progress" said a source close to the talks. "What people don't realise is that we are now not really ready for the
leaders. These talks are now 17 hours late." Negotiators were openly talking of the best possible outcome being a
"weak political agreement that would leave no clear way forward to tackle rising greenhouse gas emissions". This
would mean that negotiations would continue into 2010 increasing the damage done by emissions.[103]
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 437

On December 18, the head of the United Nations Environmental Program told the BBC that "the summit as of this
morning is a summit in crisis" and that only the arrival of heads of state could bring the summit to a successful
conclusion. Head of climate change for WWF in Britain, said that the proposals made so far, especially those from
industrialised countries "all far short of what the world needs".[104]

Hopenhagen
Hopenhagen is a climate change campaign organized by the United Nations and the International Advertising
Association to support COP15, — the United Nations Climate Change Conference 2009. The creative council was
chaired by Bob Isherwood and the ad agencies that created the campaign included Ogilvy & Mather, Euro RSCG,
McCann Worldgroup, Draftfcb, Saatchi & Saatchi, Interbrand, Tribal DDB and Digitas.[105] The campaign runs the
web site http:/ / www. hopenhagen. org/ where users can sign a petition. Together with Huffington Post it also
included sponsoring of a "Hopenhagen Ambassador", — a citizen journalist selected in a contest.[106]
Renowned photographer John Clang has joined the global Hopenhagen effort with a stop-motion short film he
created to bring awareness to the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference. In addition to the film, Clang
shot and created a series of posters that bring to life the visual representation of Hopenhagen’s citizens.[107]

Outcome
On 18 December after a day of frantic negotiations between heads of state, it was announced that a "meaningful
agreement" had been reached between on one hand the United States and on the other, in a united position as the
BASIC countries (China, South Africa, India, and Brazil).[108] An unnamed US government official was reported as
saying that the deal was a "historic step forward" but was not enough to prevent dangerous climate change in the
future. However, the BBC's environment correspondent said: "While the White House was announcing the
agreement, many other – perhaps most other – delegations had not even seen it. A comment from a UK official
suggested the text was not yet final and the Bolivian delegation has already complained about the way it was reached
– 'anti-democratic, anti-transparent and unacceptable'. With no firm target for limiting the global temperature rise, no
commitment to a legal treaty and no target year for peaking emissions, countries most vulnerable to climate impacts
have not got the deal they wanted."[108] The use of "meaningful" in the announcement was viewed as being political
spin by an editorial in The Guardian.[109]
Early on Saturday 19 December, delegates approved a motion to "take note of the Copenhagen Accord[110] of
December 18, 2009". This was due to the opposition of countries such as Bolivia, Venezuela, Sudan and Tuvalu who
registered their opposition to both the targets and process by which the Copenhagen Accord was reached.[111] The
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon welcomed the US-backed climate deal as an "essential beginning" however
debate has remained as to the exact legal nature of the Accord.[112] The Copenhagen Accord recognises the scientific
case for keeping temperature rises below 2°C, but does not contain commitments for reduced emissions that would
be necessary to achieve that aim. One part of the agreement pledges US$ 30 billion to the developing world over the
next three years, rising to US$100 billion per year by 2020, to help poor countries adapt to climate change. Earlier
proposals, that would have aimed to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C and cut CO2 emissions by 80% by 2050 were
dropped. The Accord also favors developed countries' paying developing countries to reduce emissions from
deforestation and degradation, known as "REDD".[113] [114] The agreement made was non-binding but US President
Obama said that countries could show the world their achievements. He said that if they had waited for a binding
agreement, no progress would have been made.[115]
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 438

Reactions

Governments
US President Barack Obama said that the agreement would need to be built on in the future and that "We've come a
long way but we have much further to go."[116]
Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Great Britain said "We have made a start" but that the agreement needed to
become legally binding quickly.[116] He accused a small number of nations of holding the Copenhagen talks to
ransom.[117] EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said "I will not hide my disappointment regarding the
non-binding nature of the agreement here."[108] French President Nicolas Sarkozy commented "The text we have is
not perfect" however "If we had no deal, that would mean that two countries as important as India and China would
be freed from any type of contract."[108]
The head of China's delegation said that "The meeting has had a positive result, everyone should be happy."[116]
Wen Jiabao, China's prime minister said that the weak agreement was because of distrust between nations: "To meet
the climate change challenge, the international community must strengthen confidence, build consensus, make
vigorous efforts and enhance co-operation."[118] India's environment minister, Jairam Ramesh, has been reported as
saying, "We can be satisfied that we were able to get our way" and that India had "come out quite well in
Copenhagen".[119]
Brazil's climate change ambassador called the agreement "disappointing". The head of the G77 group of countries
said that the draft text asked African countries to sign a "suicide pact" and that it would "maintain the economic
dominance of a few countries". The values the solution was based on were "the very same values in our opinion that
funnelled six million people in Europe into furnaces". Representatives of the Venezuela, and Tuvalu were unhappy
with the outcome.[116] Bolivian president, Evo Morales said that, "The meeting has failed. It's unfortunate for the
planet. The fault is with the lack of political will by a small group of countries led by the US."[118]
John Ashe, the chair of the talks that led to the Kyoto protocol,[120] was also disappointed with the agreement made,
stating: "Given where we started and the expectations for this conference, anything less than a legally binding and
agreed outcome falls far short of the mark."[118]

Non-governmental organizations
Rajendra K. Pachauri stated the Copenhagen Accord is "good but not adequate."[121] John Sauven, executive director
of Greenpeace UK stated that "The city of Copenhagen is a crime scene tonight ... It is now evident that beating
global warming will require a radically different model of politics than the one on display here in Copenhagen."
According to him "there are too few politicians in this world capable of looking beyond the horizon of their own
narrow self-interest". Nnimmo Bassey, of Friends of the Earth international called the conference "an abject
failure".[116] Lydia Baker of Save the Children said that world leaders had "effectively signed a death warrant for
many of the world's poorest children. Up to 250,000 children from poor communities could die before the next major
meeting in Mexico at the end of next year."[114] Tim Jones, climate policy officer from the World Development
Movement said that leaders had "refused to lead and instead sought to bribe and bully developing nations to sign up
to the equivalent of a death warrant."[118]
Kim Carstensen of the World Wide Fund for Nature stated: "Well-meant but half-hearted pledges to protect our
planet from dangerous climate change are simply not sufficient to address a crisis that calls for completely new ways
of collaboration across rich and poor countries...We needed a treaty now and at best, we will be working on one in
half a year's time. What we have after two years of negotiation is a half-baked text of unclear substance." Robert
Bailey, of Oxfam International, said: "It is too late to save the summit, but it's not too late to save the planet and its
people. We have no choice but to forge forward towards a legally binding deal in 2010. This must be a rapid,
decisive and ambitious movement, not business as usual."[118]
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 439

Analysis and aftermath


Despite widely held expectations that the Copenhagen summit would produce a legally binding treaty, the
conference was plagued by negotiating deadlock and the "Copenhagen Accord" is not legally enforceable. BBC
environment analyst Roger Harrabin attributed the failure of the summit to live up to expectations to a number of
factors including the recent global recession and conservative domestic pressure in the US and China.[122]
In the week following the end of the Copenhagen summit, carbon prices in the EU dropped to a six month low.[123]
The Copenhagen Accord asked countries to submit emissions targets by the end of January 2010, and paves the way
for further discussions to occur at the 2010 UN climate change conference in Mexico and the mid-year session in
Bonn. By early February, 67 countries had registered their targets.[124] Countries such as India and Association of
Island States made clear that they believed that Copenhagen Accord could not replace negotiations within the
UNFCCC.[125] Other commentators consider that "the future of the UN's role in international climate deals is now in
doubt."[122] [126]

Failure blamed on developed countries


George Monbiot blamed the failure of the conference to achieve a binding deal on the United States Senate and
Barack Obama. By negotiating the Copenhagen Accord with only a select group of nations, most of the UN member
states were excluded. If poorer nations did not sign the Accord then they would be unable to access funds from richer
nations to help them adapt to climate change. He noted how the British and American governments have both
blamed China for the failure of the talks but said that Obama placed China in "an impossible position" - "He
demanded concessions while offering nothing."[127] Martin Khor blamed Denmark for convening a meeting of only
26 nations in the final two days of the conference. He says that it undermined the UN's multilateral and democratic
process of climate negotiations. It was in these meetings that China vetoed long-term emission-reduction goals for
global emissions to decrease by 50%, and developed countries emissions to fall by 80% by 2050 compared to 1990.
Khor states that this is when other countries began to blame the failures on China. If China had accepted this, by
2050 their emissions per capita would have had to be around one half to one fifth per capita of those of the United
States.[128]
US Embassy dispatches released by WikiLeaks showed how the US 'used spying, threats and promises of aid' to gain
support for the Copenhagen Accord.[129] The emergent US emissions pledge was the lowest by any leading
nation.[130]

Failure blamed on developing countries


The Australian Broadcasting Corporation has reported that India, China and other emerging nations cooperated at
Copenhagen to thwart attempts at establishing legally binding targets for carbon emissions, in order to protect their
economic growth.[119] [131]
UK Climate Change secretary Ed Miliband accused China specifically of sinking an agreement, provoking a counter
response from China that British politicians were engaging in a political scheme.[132] [133] Mark Lynas, who was
attached to the Maldives delegation, accused China of "sabotaging" the talks and ensuring that Barack Obama would
publicly shoulder the blame.[134] [135] The New York Times has quoted Lynas as further commenting:
"...the NGO movement is ten years out of date. They’re still arguing for ‘climate justice’, whatever that means,
which is interpreted by the big developing countries like India and China as a right to pollute up to Western
levels. To me carbon equity is the logic of mutually assured destruction. I think NGOs are far too soft on the
Chinese, given that it’s the world’s biggest polluter, and is the single most important factor in deciding when
global emissions will peak, which in turn is the single most important factor in the eventual temperature
outcome...
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 440

"I think the bottom line for China (and India) is growth, and given that this growth is mainly based on coal,
there is going to have to be much more pressure on China if global emissions are to peak within any
reasonable time frame. In Beijing the interests of the Party come first, second and third, and global warming is
somewhere further down the list. Growth delivers stability and prosperity, and keeps the party in power."[136]
China's Xinhua news agency responded to these allegations by asserting that Premier Wen Jiabao played a sincere,
determined and constructive role at the last minute talks in Copenhagen and credited him with playing a key role in
the "success" of the conference.[137] [138] However, Wen did not take part in critical closed-door discussions at the
end of the conference.[135] [139] According to Wen himself, the Chinese delegation was not informed about the
critical discussion.[140]
The editorial of News Corporation's The Australian newspaper, blamed African countries for turning Copenhagen
into "a platform for demands that the world improve the continent's standard of living" and claimed that
"Copenhagen was about old-fashioned anti-Americanism, not the environment".[141]
Indian journalist Praful Bidwai puts the blame on both developed and a few developing countries such as India,
arguing that the "Copenhagen Accord is an illegitimate, ill-conceived, collusive deal between a handful of countries
that are some of the world’s greatest present and future emitters."[142] He argues that India's policy is driven by elites
determined to maintain high-consumer lifestyles which will have devastating effects for the vast majority of India's
poor.

Academics
In a panel discussion held at MIT, Henry Jacoby gave the results of an analysis on the effect of the commitments
made in the Accord.[143] According to this analysis, assuming that the commitments submitted in response to the
Accord (as of February 2010) are fulfilled, global emissions would peak around 2020. The resultant stock of
emissions was projected to exceed the level required to have a roughly 50% chance of meeting the 2 °C target that is
specified in the Accord. In his assessment, even emission reductions below that needed to reach the 2 °C target had
the benefit of reducing the risk of large amounts of future climate change.
Benito Müller commented on criticisms of the UNFCCC process.[144] In his view, the failure to get a better result at
Copenhagen was due to a lack of political will in the months preceding the conference.
Walter Russell Mead argues that the conference failed because environmentalists have changed from "Bambi to
Godzilla." According to Mead, environmentalist used to represent the skeptical few who made valid arguments
against big government programs which tried to impose simple but massive solutions on complex situations.
Environmentalists' more recent advocacy for big economic and social intervention against global warming,
according to Mead, has made them, "the voice of the establishment, of the tenured, of the technocrats" and thus has
lost them the support of a public which is increasingly skeptical of global warming.[145]

References
[1] http:/ / www. un. org/ wcm/ content/ site/ chronicle/ home
[2] Climate conference president resigns, Rasmussen to take over. (http:/ / www. livemint. com/ 2009/ 12/ 16183943/
Climate-conference-president-r. html) Mint. 16 December 2009.
[3] "IISD Reporting Services – Upcoming meetings" (http:/ / www. iisd. ca/ upcoming/ linkagesmeetings. asp?id=5). Iisd.ca. . Retrieved
2010-04-08.
[4] Tim Flannery (November 2009), Copenhagen and Beyond: Conference Bound (http:/ / www. themonthly. com. au/
monthly-essays-tim-flannery-copenhagen-and-beyond-conference-bound-2110), The Monthly,
[5] Associated, The (2009-12-15). "UN Chief: Time To Stop Climate Finger-Pointing" (http:/ / www. npr. org/ templates/ story/ story.
php?storyId=120160589). NPR. . Retrieved 2009-12-19.
[6] "Obama In Copenhagen; Climate Talks In Disarray; Urges 'Action Over Inaction' – The Two-Way – Breaking News, Analysis Blog" (http:/ /
www. npr. org/ blogs/ thetwo-way/ 2009/ 12/ obama_in_copenhagen_climate_ch. html). NPR. . Retrieved 2009ib-12-19.
[7] "CBC News – World – Canada part of Copenhagen climate deal" (http:/ / www. cbc. ca/ world/ story/ 2009/ 12/ 18/ copenhagen-last-day.
html). Cbc.ca. 2009-11-27. . Retrieved 2009-12-19.
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 441

[8] "Last day of Copenhagen summit, hope fizzling out" (http:/ / ibnlive. in. com/ news/ last-day-of-copenhagen-summit-hope-fizzling-out/
107355-11. html). Ibnlive.in.com. . Retrieved 2009-12-19.
[9] Lenore Taylor, National correspondent, in Copenhagen. "Climate talks set for failure as China dampens hopes" (http:/ / www. theaustralian.
com. au/ news/ nation/ climate-talks-set-for-failure-as-china-dampens-hopes/ story-e6frg6nf-1225811570408). The Australian. . Retrieved
2009-12-19.
[10] "Copenhagen deal: Key points" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ sci/ tech/ 8422307. stm). BBC News. 2009-12-19. . Retrieved 2009-12-20.
[11] "The North's Destructive Model" (http:/ / www. inwent. org/ ez/ articles/ 166521/ index. en. shtml). Inwent.org. . Retrieved 2010-04-08.
[12] "Michael Zammit Cutajar on the future of the climate change negotiations" (http:/ / www. climate-change. tv/
michael-zammit-cutajar-june-2010-2). Climate-Change.tv. June 2010. . Retrieved 2010-06-27.
[13] "On this day - December 9" (http:/ / www. news24. com/ Opinions/ OnThisDay/ On-this-day-December-9-20091209). News24. 9 December
2009. . Retrieved 2010-12-09.
[14] "The US and China Joined Forces Against Europe" (http:/ / www. spiegel. de/ international/ world/ 0,1518,733630,00. html). Der Spiegel. 8
December 2010. . Retrieved 2010-12-09.
[15] Carrington, Damian (3 December 2010). "WikiLeaks cables reveal how US manipulated climate accord" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/
environment/ 2010/ dec/ 03/ wikileaks-us-manipulated-climate-accord). London: The Guardian. . Retrieved 2010-12-09.
[16] European Union (2009-01-28). "Questions and Answers on the Communication Towards a comprehensive climate change agreement in
Copenhagen" (http:/ / europa. eu/ rapid/ pressReleasesAction. do?reference=MEMO/ 09/ 34& format=HTML& aged=0& language=EN&
guiLanguage=en). Press release. . Retrieved 2010-02-14.
[17] "Towards a comprehensive climate agreement in Copenhagen" (http:/ / ec. europa. eu/ environment/ climat/ pdf/ future_action/
communication. pdf). European Union. .
[18] 1 décembre 2008. "Jumping the climate change hurdle" (http:/ / www. youtube. com/ watch?gl=FR& hl=fr& v=b1kf_axslfk). YouTube. .
Retrieved 2009-12-09.
[19] 1 oktober 2008. "Building Blocks for Climate Change Solutions" (http:/ / www. youtube. com/ watch?v=bpmXY0R7RLQ). YouTube. .
Retrieved 2009-12-09.
[20] "Negotiating text" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ resource/ docs/ 2009/ awglca6/ eng/ 08. pdf) (in English (others available)) (PDF). United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change. p. 53. . Retrieved 2009-06-15.
[21] "Negotiating text" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ resource/ docs/ 2009/ awglca7/ eng/ inf02. pdf) (in English (others available)) (PDF). United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change. p. 181. . Retrieved 2009-09-15.
[22] "Progress Made in Negotiations for Ambitious and Effective Copenhagen Deal at Bonn UNFCCC Meeting" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ files/ press/
news_room/ press_releases_and_advisories/ application/ pdf/ 091206_closing_pr_sb30. pdf) (PDF). Press Release. UNFCCC/CCNUCC. 12
June 2009. p. 2. . Retrieved 2009-06-15.
[23] "Bangkok Climate Change Talks – 2009" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ meetings/ intersessional/ bangkok_09/ items/ 4967. php). United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change. . Retrieved 2009-12-07.
[24] Kevin Rudd, Penny Wong, Wayne Swan (2009-05-04), A new target for reducing Australia's carbon pollution (http:/ / www. climatechange.
gov. au/ ~/ media/ Files/ minister/ wong/ 2009/ media-releases/ May/ mr20090504c. ashx), Department of Climate Change,
[25] "Copenhagen Accord" (http:/ / graphics8. nytimes. com/ packages/ pdf/ science/ earth/ 20091218_CLIMATE_TEXT. pdf). New York
Times. 18 December 2009. .
[26] Australia,Belarus,Canada,EU,Iceland,Japan,New Zealand,Norway,Russia,Switzerland,Ukraine, Joint submission: Information relating to
possible quantified emissions limitation and reduction objectives as submitted by Parties (http:/ / unfccc. int/ files/ kyoto_protocol/
application/ pdf/ jointsubmission290409. pdf), UNFCCC,
[27] Australian Labour Party (2009-10-22), Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Bill 2009 (No. 2) (http:/ / www. aph. gov. au/ library/ pubs/ bd/
2009-10/ 10bd059. htm), Hansard of the Australian Parliament,
[28] Kevin Rudd, Penny Wong, Wayne Swan (2008-12-15), Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme: Australia's Low Pollution Future (http:/ /
www. climatechange. gov. au/ publications/ cprs/ white-paper/ ~/ media/ publications/ white-paper/ V100eExecutiveSummary-pdf. ashx),
Department of Climate Change, p. 7,
[29] Kevin Rudd, Penny Wong, Wayne Swan (2009-11-24), Details of Proposed CPRS changes (http:/ / www. climatechange. gov. au/ ~/ media/
publications/ cprs/ CPRS_ESAS/ 091124oppnofferpdf. ashx), Australian Government Department of Climate Change,
[30] Lenore Taylor (2009-12-15), PM and Abbott are in the same boat (http:/ / www. theaustralian. com. au/ politics/
pm-and-abbott-are-in-the-same-boat/ story-e6frgczf-1225810403852), News Corporation,
[31] UNFCCC (2009), Time series (Annex I): Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with and without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry
(http:/ / unfccc. int/ ghg_data/ ghg_data_unfccc/ time_series_annex_i/ items/ 3814. php), UNFCCC,
[32] Australian Department of Climate Change (2009-05-26), UNFCCC National Inventory Submissions 2009 – Australia (Common Reporting
Format) (http:/ / unfccc. int/ files/ national_reports/ annex_i_ghg_inventories/ national_inventories_submissions/ application/ zip/
aus_2009_crf_26may. zip), UNFCCC,
[33] Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System (2009-05-26), UNFCCC Inventory – Australia – Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (http:/ /
www. ageis. greenhouse. gov. au/ UNFCCC. aspx), Australian Department of Climate Change,
[34] Australian Department of Climate Change (2009-06-23), UNFCCC GHG Inventory Status Reports 2009 – Australia (http:/ / unfccc. int/
national_reports/ annex_i_ghg_inventories/ inventory_review_reports/ items/ 4715. php), UNFCCC,
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 442

[35] UNFCCC (2009-10-21), UNFCCC (Annex I) National GHG Inventory Data for the period 1990–2007 (http:/ / unfccc. int/ documentation/
documents/ advanced_search/ items/ 3594. php?rec=j& priref=600005460#beg), UNFCCC,
[36] Nicholas Stern (2009-12-06), Action and ambition for a global deal in Copenhagen (http:/ / www. unep. org/ pdf/ climatechange/
ActionAndAmbitionForGlobalDealInCopenhagen. pdf), Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, Grantham Research Institute for
Climate Change and the Environment, UN Environment Program, p. 5,
[37] Tom Phillips (2009-11-10), Brazil pledges deep emission cuts in 'political gesture' to rich nations (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/
environment/ 2009/ nov/ 10/ brazil-emissions), London: The Guardian, , retrieved 2010-03-26
[38] IEA (2009-10-06), CO2 emissions from fuel combustion: highlights (2009) (http:/ / www. iea. org/ co2highlights/ ), IEA,
[39] Canada (2009-12-09). "U.S. makes first move at Copenhagen" (http:/ / www. theglobeandmail. com/ news/ world/ climate-change/
us-makes-first-move-at-copenhagen/ article1391958/ ). The Globe and Mail (Toronto). . Retrieved 2009-12-09.
[40] http:/ / www. canadians. org/ campaignblog/ ?p=2793
[41] Galloway, Gloria; Vanderklippe, Nathan (2010-02-01). "Canada ties new emissions-cuts targets to U.S. goals" (http:/ / www.
theglobeandmail. com/ news/ politics/ canada-ties-new-emissions-cuts-targets-to-us-goals/ article1451436/ ). The Globe and Mail (Toronto). .
[42] Editorial (2009-12-07). "Canada inactive on climate front" (http:/ / www. thestar. com/ opinion/ editorials/ article/
735079--canada-inactive-on-climate-front). The Toronto Star. .
[43] BBC (2009-11-28), Where countries stand on Copenhagen (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ sci/ tech/ 8345343. stm), BBC,
[44] China hopes to see positive results from Copenhagen conference (http:/ / news. xinhuanet. com/ english/ 2009-12/ 12/ content_12633683.
htm), Xinhua, 2009-12-12,
[45] BBC (2009-11-26), EU climate package explained (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ europe/ 7765094. stm), BBC,
[46] European Commission (2008-12-08), Climate Action (http:/ / ec. europa. eu/ environment/ climat/ climate_action. htm), European
Commission,
[47] European Parliament (2009-06-05), Directive 2009/29/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 (http:/ / eur-lex.
europa. eu/ LexUriServ/ LexUriServ. do?uri=OJ:L:2009:140:0063:0087:EN:PDF), EUR-Lex, p. 1,
[48] European Commission (2009-12-03), Fifth National Communication From The European Community Under The UNFCCC (http:/ / ec.
europa. eu/ environment/ climat/ pdf/ fifth_comm_unfccc. pdf), European Commission, p. 10,
[49] "The EU's negotiating position for Copenhagen" (http:/ / www. bmu. de/ english/ climate/ climate_conferences/
15th_conference_copenhagen/ doc/ 45308. php). Federal Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU).
December 2009. . Retrieved 2010-01-11.
[50] Aarti Dhar (2009-12-04), Jairam Ramesh: 20–25% carbon emission intensity cut by 2020 (http:/ / www. hindu. com/ 2009/ 12/ 04/ stories/
2009120456550100. htm), Chennai, India: The Hindu,
[51] Yudhoyono, Susilo Bambang. "Speech at the UNFCCC Copenhagen - President of the Republic of Indonesia" (http:/ / www. presidenri. go.
id/ index. php/ eng/ pidato/ 2009/ 12/ 17/ 1274. html). .
[52] BBC (2009-09-07), Japan vows big climate change cut (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 8241016. stm), BBC,
[53] Nick Smith, Tim Grosser (2009-08-10), 2020 target balances economy & environment (http:/ / www. beehive. govt. nz/ release/ 2020+
target+ balances+ economy+ amp+ environment), NZ Government,
[54] "Norway at the Copenhagen Summit" (http:/ / www. norwaypost. no/ content/ view/ 22931/ 26/ ). . Retrieved 2010-01-08.
[55] Charles Digges (2009-11-20), Russian announces higher emissions cuts in 11th hour before Copenhagen (http:/ / www. bellona. org/
articles/ articles_2009/ Medvedev_announces_larger_cuts), Bellona,
[56] BBC (2009-12-07), South Africa to cut carbon emissions by 34% (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ africa/ 8398775. stm), BBC,
[57] Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (2009-07-14). "Carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), thousand metric tons of CO2 (CDIAC)"
(http:/ / mdgs. un. org/ unsd/ mdg/ SeriesDetail. aspx?srid=749& crid=). United Nations Millennium Project. . Retrieved 2009-12-19.
[58] Meeyoung, Cho (August 4, 2009). "South Korea unveils CO2 target plan" (http:/ / www. reuters. com/ article/ idUSTRE5734VW20090804).
Reuters (Seoul). .
[59] BBC (2009-11-25), Obama vows greenhouse gas emissions cuts (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ 8378890. stm), BBC,
[60] Whitehouse Press Secretary (2009-11-25), President to Attend Copenhagen Climate Talks (http:/ / www. whitehouse. gov/ the-press-office/
president-attend-copenhagen-climate-talks), The President of the United States of American,
[61] Levi, Michael A. (December 11, 2009). "Hey, Copenhagen, Stop Complaining - Obama's proposed emissions cuts are good enough for now"
(http:/ / www. slate. com/ id/ 2238090/ ). Slate. .
[62] Tankersley, Jim (November 26, 2009). "Obama's climate vow boosts chances for Copenhagen deal" (http:/ / www. latimes. com/ news/
nation-and-world/ la-na-obama-climate26-2009nov26,0,6587075. story). Los Angeles Times. .
[63] Ashok Dikshit (December 18, 2009). "India, China versus United States at Copenhagen" (http:/ / www. thaindian. com/ newsportal/
world-news/ india-china-versus-united-states-at-copenhagen_100291027. html). .
[64] "UNEP and Daimler Call for Infrastructure for Electric and Fuel-cell Vehicles" (http:/ / climate-l. org/ 2008/ 07/ 11/
unep-and-daimler-call-for-infrastructure-for-electric-and-fuel-cell-vehicles/ #more-1003). Climate-L.org. 2008-07-04. . Retrieved 2009-12-09.
[65] http:/ / unfccc. int/ resource/ docs/ 2008/ smsn/ ngo/ 071. pdf
[66] http:/ / unfccc. int/ files/ kyoto_protocol/ application/ pdf/ india100209b. pdf
[67] "National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs)" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ national_reports/ napa/ items/ 2719. php). Unfccc.int. .
Retrieved 2009-12-09.
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 443

[68] "DSD :: Areas of Work:: Technology – Meetings & Workshops – COP15 Side Event, December 2009" (http:/ / www. un. org/ esa/ dsd/
dsd_aofw_tec/ tec_sideevent1209. shtml). Un.org. . Retrieved 2009-12-19.
[69] "Technology Needs Assessment Reports" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ ttclear/ jsp/ TNAReports. jsp). Unfccc.int. 2008-01-25. . Retrieved
2009-12-19.
[70] "Technology Transfer Clearing House" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ ttclear/ jsp/ index. jsp). Unfccc.int. . Retrieved 2009-12-19.
[71] "Microsoft Word – bi16.doc" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ resource/ docs/ 2008/ sbi/ eng/ 16. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2009-12-19.
[72] "UN-Energy" (http:/ / esa. un. org/ un-energy/ ). Esa.un.org. . Retrieved 2009-12-19.
[73] "Climate Consortium – COP15 United Nations Climate Change Conference Copenhagen 2009" (http:/ / en. cop15. dk/ climate+
consortium). En.cop15.dk. . Retrieved 2009-12-09.
[74] "I European Conference for the promotion of Local actions to combat Climate Change – Submitted events—EEA" (http:/ / www. eea.
europa. eu/ events/ submitted/ i-european-conference-for-the-promotion-of-local-actions-to-combat-climate-change-1). Eea.europa.eu. .
Retrieved 2009-12-09.
[75] "European Conference for the Promotion of Local Actions to Combat Climate Change, 23–25/9/09 (Huelva, Spanje) | vleva" (http:/ / www.
vleva. eu/ content/ 4608). Vleva.eu. . Retrieved 2009-12-09.
[76] "Covenant of Mayors" (http:/ / www. eumayors. eu). Eumayors.eu. . Retrieved 2009-12-09.
[77] "Iclei.org" (http:/ / www. iclei. org/ index. php?id=10497& tx_ttnews[tt_news]=4127& tx_ttnews[backPid]=983& cHash=bf5e80d264).
Iclei.org. . Retrieved 2010-04-08.
[78] Heilprin, John (13 December 2009). "Huge rally at climate forum" (http:/ / www. philly. com/ inquirer/ world_us/
20091213_Huge_rally_at_climate_forum. html). The Philadelphia Enquirer. . Retrieved 14 December 2009.
[79] "Climate activists condemn Copenhagen police tactics" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ world/ europe/ 8410414. stm). BBC News. 13
December 2009. . Retrieved 14 December 2009.
[80] McKie, Robin; Bibi van der Zee (13 December 2009). "Copenhagen police release hundreds of detained activists" (http:/ / www. guardian.
co. uk/ environment/ 2009/ dec/ 13/ copenhagen-protesters-freed). London: The Guardian. . Retrieved 14 December 2009.
[81] Apple, Emily (15 December 2009). "Why co-operate with Copenhagen cops?" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ commentisfree/ cif-green/
2009/ dec/ 15/ copenhagen-protests-resisting-compliant-urge). London: The Guardian. . Retrieved 16 December 2009.
[82] van der Zee, Bibi (17 December 2009). "Activists reveal tactics used by police to 'decapitate' Copenhagen climate protests" (http:/ / www.
guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2009/ dec/ 17/ copenhagen-police-tactics-revealed). London: The Guardian. . Retrieved 21 December 2009.
[83] Zeller, Tom (December 6, 2009). "Copenhagen Talks Tough on Climate Protest Plans" (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2009/ 12/ 07/ science/
earth/ 07security. html). New York Times. . Retrieved 16 December 2009.
[84] Goldenberg, Suzanne (14 December 2009). "Copenhagen spoof shames Canada on the truth about its emissions" (http:/ / www. guardian. co.
uk/ environment/ blog/ 2009/ dec/ 14/ environment-canada-spoof). London: The Guardian. . Retrieved 14 December 2009.
[85] Vidal, John (6 January 2010). "Copenhagen activists to appear before judge for state dinner gatecrash" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/
environment/ 2010/ jan/ 06/ copenhagen-activists-gatecrash-state-dinner). London: The Guardian. . Retrieved 12 March 2010.
[86] Lefort, Rebecca (5 December 2009). "Thousands march in 'wave' against climate change ahead of Copenhagen conference" (http:/ / www.
telegraph. co. uk/ earth/ copenhagen-climate-change-confe/ 6737104/
Thousands-march-in-wave-against-climate-change-ahead-of-Copenhagen-conference. html). London: The Daily Telegraph. . Retrieved 19
December 2009.
[87] Australian marchers lead world climate protests (AFP) – December 11, 2009 (http:/ / www. google. com/ hostednews/ afp/ article/
ALeqM5j-Hpl52Erv6hdXrPHlkgsXNdJSAg) archived link (http:/ / www. webcitation. org/ 5m8g4uqzi)
[88] Australians walk to pressure Copenhagen Reuters UK December 12, 2009 (http:/ / uk. reuters. com/ article/ idUKTRE5BB0FB20091212)
archived link (http:/ / www. webcitation. org/ 5m8gA1xI2)
[89] Monbiot, George (19 December 2009). "Copenhagen negotiators bicker and filibuster while the biosphere burns" (http:/ / www. guardian.
co. uk/ environment/ 2009/ dec/ 18/ copenhagen-negotiators-bicker-filibuster-biosphere). London: The Guardian. . Retrieved 19 December
2009.
[90] Foreningen Civilsamfundets Klimaforum (3 March 2010). "Evaluation Report Klimaforum09 - People's Climate Summit" (http:/ / 09.
klimaforum. org/ files/ 09/ evaluation/ Evaluation_Report_Klimaforum09_screen. pdf). Foreningen Civilsamfundets Klimaforum. . Retrieved
3 March 2010.
[91] "Grassroots Climate Justice Groups Work for Results in Copenhagen" (http:/ / thewip. net/ contributors/ 2009/ 12/
grassroots_climate_justice_gro. html). The Women's International Perspective, www.thewip.net. . Retrieved 1 January 2010.
[92] UNFCCC Webcast (18 December 2009). "15th Conference of the Parties (COP) 11th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC serving as
the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP),Copenhagen/Denmark, 18 December 2009, Statements from observer organizations
[COP agenda item 10 and CMP agenda item 16 (http:/ / cop15. meta-fusion. com/ kongresse/ cop15/ templ/ play. php?id_kongressmain=1&
theme=unfccc& id_kongresssession=2745)"]. UNFCCC. . Retrieved 18 December 2009.
[93] Foreningen Civilsamfundets Klimaforum (12 December 2009). "A People's Declaration - System change - not climate change" (http:/ /
declaration. klimaforum. org/ files/ declaration/ declaration_screen. pdf). Foreningen Civilsamfundets Klimaforum. . Retrieved 12 December
2009.
[94] Whiteman, Hilary (2009-12-09). "Poor nations' fury over leaked climate text" (http:/ / www. cnn. com/ 2009/ WORLD/ europe/ 12/ 09/
danish. draft. climate. text. 0850/ ). CNN. . Retrieved 2009-12-10.
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 444

[95] Vidal, John (2009-12-08). "Copenhagen climate summit in disarray after 'Danish text' leak" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/
2009/ dec/ 08/ copenhagen-climate-summit-disarray-danish-text). The Guardian (London). . Retrieved 2009-12-10.
[96] "International NGO sees red over 'green projects'" (http:/ / thestar. com. my/ news/ story. asp?file=/ 2009/ 11/ 28/ nation/ 5201442&
sec=nation). Thestar.com.my. 2009-11-28. . Retrieved 2009-12-19.
[97] Browne, Pete (2009-11-24). "Green Business and Indigenous Rights – Green Inc. Blog – NYTimes.com" (http:/ / greeninc. blogs. nytimes.
com/ 2009/ 11/ 24/ green-business-and-indigenous-rights/ ). Greeninc.blogs.nytimes.com. . Retrieved 2009-12-19.
[98] Hansen, Terri (2009-12-15). "Copenhagen brings indigenous climate change issues to world stage | Indian Country Today | UN Declaration"
(http:/ / www. indiancountrytoday. com/ global/ undeclaration/ 79222847. html). Indian Country Today. . Retrieved 2009-12-19.
[99] "Efforts to slow climate change may put indigenous people at risk" (http:/ / news. mongabay. com/ 2009/ 1123-survival. html).
News.mongabay.com. . Retrieved 2009-12-19.
[100] "Media kits" (http:/ / www. survivalinternational. org/ news/ kits/ climatechange). Survival International. . Retrieved 2009-12-19.
[101] "Copenhagen March Also Includes Indigenous Peoples On Rights" (http:/ / www. huliq. com/ 1/ 89605/
copenhagen-march-also-includes-indigenous-peoples-rights). HULIQ. 2009-12-12. . Retrieved 2009-12-20.
[102] "Civil Society post Copenhagen" (http:/ / www. climate-change. tv/ estebancio-castro-diaz-march-2010). Climate-Change.TV News. 5
April 2010. . Retrieved 5 April 2010.
[103] Vidal, John; Allegra Stratton (16 December 2009). "Copenhagen summit veering towards farce, warns Ed Miliband" (http:/ / www.
guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2009/ dec/ 16/ copenhagen-summit-miliband-farce-warning). London: The Guardian. . Retrieved 18 December
2009.
[104] "Copenhagen summit final day overshadowed by uncertainty" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ sci/ tech/ 8420016. stm). BBC News. 18
December 2009. . Retrieved 18 December 2009.
[105] Alex Brownsell (23 June 2009). "United Nations launches Hopenhagen climate change campaign" (http:/ / www. marketingmagazine. co.
uk/ news/ 915337/ United-Nations-launches-Hopenhagen-climate-change-campaign/ ). .
[106] Katherine Goldstein and Matthew Palevsky (16 November 2009). "Hopenhagen Ambassador Contest: HuffPost Citizen Journalist Will
Win A Trip To Copenhagen" (http:/ / www. huffingtonpost. com/ 2009/ 11/ 16/ hopenhagen-ambassador-con_n_356950. html). Huffington
Post. .
[107] Ogilvy & Mather (2009-12-07). "Photographer John Clang teams up with Hopenhagen" (http:/ / www. ogilvy. com/ News/ Press-Releases/
December-2009-Photographer-John-Clang-Teams-Up-With-Hopenhagen. aspx). Press release. .
[108] "Key powers reach compromise at climate summit" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ europe/ 8421935. stm). BBC News. 2009-12-19. .
Retrieved 2010-02-03.
[109] "Copenhagen climate conference: The grim meaning of 'meaningful'" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ commentisfree/ 2009/ dec/ 19/
copenhagen-climate-change-conference-obama). The Guardian (London). 2009-12-09. . Retrieved 2009-12-09.
[110] "UNFCCC: Text of Copenhagen Accord" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ resource/ docs/ 2009/ cop15/ eng/ l07. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-04-08.
[111] Buxton, Nick (8 January 2010). "Transnational Institute: Bolivia provides resistance and hope at Brokenhagen" (http:/ / www. tni. org/
article/ bolivia-provides-resistance-and-hope-brokenhagen). .
[112] "Comments on the Copenhagen Accord: Contents and Legal Aspects" (http:/ / www. southcentre. org/ index. php?option=com_content&
task=view& id=1236& Itemid=287). South Centre. . Retrieved 2010-04-08.
[113] Papanicolaou, Chris; Lauren Fendick (2010-01-25). "Copenhagen summit fails to produce new global climate change treaty" (http:/ / www.
lexology. com/ library/ detail. aspx?g=456748b1-18cc-47c9-a3c7-71004b1f0f69). Jones Day. . Retrieved 2010-02-07.
[114] Vidal, John; Allegra Stratton and Suzanne Goldenberg (19 December 2009). "Low targets, goals dropped: Copenhagen ends in failure"
(http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2009/ dec/ 18/ copenhagen-deal). London: The Guardian. . Retrieved 19 December 2009.
[115] Henry, Ed (December 18, 2009). "Obama announces climate change deal with China, other nations" (http:/ / www. cnn. com/ 2009/
POLITICS/ 12/ 18/ obama. copenhagen/ index. html). CNN. . Retrieved 19 December 2009.
[116] "Copenhagen deal reaction in quotes" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ sci/ tech/ 8421910. stm). BBC News. 19 December 2009. .
Retrieved 19 December 2009.
[117] Copenhagen climate summit held to ransom - Gordon Brown (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ uk_news/ politics/ 8423831. stm), BBC,
2009-12-21,
[118] Vidal, John (2009-12-09). "Rich and poor countries blame each other for failure of Copenhagen deal" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/
environment/ 2009/ dec/ 19/ copenhagen-blame-game). The Guardian (London). . Retrieved 2009-12-09.
[119] Sally Sara (2009-12-23), India, China cooperated to torpedo climate deal (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ news/ stories/ 2009/ 12/ 23/ 2779003.
htm), Australian Broadcasting Corporation,
[120] "John Ashe, chairman of the AWG-KP" (http:/ / www. ab. gov. ag/ gov_v3/ index. php?option=com_content& view=article&
id=110:antigua-and-barbudas-ambassador-dr-john-ashe-releases-two-key-negotiating-texts-ahead-of-key-climate-change-talks&
catid=34:news& Itemid=59). Ab.gov.ag. 2009-07-15. . Retrieved 2010-04-08.
[121] Bagla, Pallava (2010-01-29). "Extended Interview: Climate Science Leader Rajendra K. Pachauri Confronts the Critics" (http:/ / www.
sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ full/ 327/ 5965/ 510/ DC1). Science 327 (5965): 510–511. doi:10.1126/science.327.5965.510. ISSN 1095-9203.
PMID 20110473. . Retrieved 2010-02-14.
[122] Harrabin's Notes: After Copenhagen (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 8423822. stm), BBC, 2009-12-21, , retrieved
2010-03-26
[123] Copenhagen deal causes EU carbon price fall (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ business/ 8425293. stm), BBC news, 2009-12-21,
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 445

[124] "UNFCCC: Information provided by Parties to the Convention relating to the Copenhagen Accord" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ home/ items/ 5262.
php). Unfccc.int. . Retrieved 2010-04-08.
[125] "After Copenhagen, the Way Forward" (http:/ / www. southcentre. org/ index. php?option=com_content& task=view& id=1233&
Itemid=287). South Centre. . Retrieved 2010-04-08.
[126] Clive Hamilton (2009-12-21), History's long shadow (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ unleashed/ stories/ s2777595. htm), Australian
Broadcasting Corporation,
[127] Monbiot, George (21 December 2009). "If you want to know who's to blame for Copenhagen, look to the US Senate" (http:/ / www.
guardian. co. uk/ commentisfree/ 2009/ dec/ 21/ copenhagen-failure-us-senate-vested-interests). London: The Guardian. . Retrieved 22
December 2009.
[128] Khor, Martin (28 December 2009). "Blame Denmark, not China, for Copenhagen failure" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ commentisfree/
cif-green/ 2009/ dec/ 28/ copenhagen-denmark-china). London: The Guardian. . Retrieved 28 December 2009.
[129] Carrington, Damian (2010-12-03). "WikiLeaks cables reveal how US manipulated climate accord" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/
environment/ 2010/ dec/ 03/ wikileaks-us-manipulated-climate-accord). London: The Guardian. . Retrieved December 21, 2010.
[130] "Who's On Board with the Copenhagen Accord" (http:/ / www. usclimatenetwork. org/ policy/ copenhagen-accord-commitments). .
Retrieved December 21, 2010.
[131] Arup, Tom (2009-12-25), India confesses it helped derail Copenhagen deal (http:/ / www. smh. com. au/ environment/ climate-change/
india-confesses-it-helped-derail-copenhagen-deal-20091223-ldf1. html), Sydney Morning Herald,
[132] China rejects UK claims it hindered Copenhagen talks (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ asia-pacific/ 8425720. stm), BBC, 2009-12-22,
[133] Developing nations 'resisted' climate deal (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ news/ stories/ 2009/ 12/ 22/ 2778717. htm?section=justin), Australian
Broadcasting Corporation, 2009-12-22,
[134] "Eyewitness: How China sabotaged climate talks" (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ news/ stories/ 2009/ 12/ 23/ 2779498. htm?section=justin).
ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation). 2009-12-23. . Retrieved 2010-02-03.
[135] Mark Lynas (2009, December 22), How do I know China wrecked the Copenhagen deal? I was in the room (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/
environment/ 2009/ dec/ 22/ copenhagen-climate-change-mark-lynas), London: The Guardian, , retrieved 2010-03-26
[136] Andrew Revkin (2009-12-23), Views on China’s Role in the Greenhouse (http:/ / dotearth. blogs. nytimes. com/ 2009/ 12/ 23/
views-on-china-and-copenhagen/ ), The New York Times,
[137] Hornby, Lucy (2009-12-25), China defends Wen Jiabao's role in Copenhagen talks (http:/ / www. reuters. com/ article/
idUSTRE5BO0C320091225), Reuters,
[138] Yu Zhixiao (2009-12-25), China plays key role making Copenhagen talks successful (http:/ / news. xinhuanet. com/ english/ 2009-12/ 25/
content_12704224. htm), Xinhua,
[139] China's thing about numbers (http:/ / www. economist. com/ world/ international/ displaystory. cfm?story_id=15179774), The Economist,
2009-12-30,
[140] "温家宝:哥本哈根"重要会议"未通知中国至今成谜-全国,两会,温家宝-北方网-新闻中心" (http:/ / news. enorth. com. cn/ system/
2010/ 03/ 14/ 004539891. shtml). News.enorth.com.cn. 2010-03-14. . Retrieved 2010-11-07.
[141] New approach on global warming needed now (http:/ / www. theaustralian. com. au/ news/ opinion/
new-approach-on-global-warming-needed-now/ story-e6frg71x-1225812242549), The Australian, 2009-12-21, (Australian Broadcasting
Corporation)
[142] Bidwai, Praful (2010-01-12), Fouling up the Air (http:/ / www. tni. org/ article/ fouling-air), The Transnational Institute,
[143] MIT Energy Initiative (February 5, 2010). "The Road from Copenhagen. Moderator: E.J. Moniz. Speakers: R.N. Stavins, M. Greenstone, S.
Ansolabehere, E.S. Steinfeld, H.D. Jacoby, and J. Sterman." (http:/ / mitworld. mit. edu/ video/ 748). MIT World website. . Retrieved
2010-03-27.
[144] Müller, B. (February 2010). "Copenhagen 2009: Failure or final wake-up call for our leaders?" (http:/ / www. oxfordenergy. org/ pdfs/
EV49. pdf). Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. . Retrieved 2010-03-27.
[145] Will, George, " When Bambi becomes Godzilla (http:/ / www. denverpost. com/ opinion/ ci_15978060)", Denver Post, 5 September 2010.

External links
• Official website (http://http://www.cop15.dk/)
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (http://unfccc.int/2860.php)
• United Nations Summit on Climate Change (http://un.org/wcm/content/site/climatechange/lang/en/
pages/2009summit)
• COP15 (http://www.dmoz.org/Science/Environment/Climate_Change/Conferences/COP15/) at the Open
Directory Project
• Advance version (2009-09-15) of the UN FCCC agreement (http://www.unifem.org/attachments/partnerships/
climate_change/lac_text_15_Sept_2009.pdf)
• Climate Action Tracker (http://www.climateactiontracker.org/)
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 446

• Klimaforum09 - People's Climate Summit (http://www.klimaforum09.org/)/ Klimaforum (http://www.


klimaforum.org/)
• A People’s Declaration from Klimaforum09 - System change - not climate change! (http://declaration.
klimaforum.org/declaration/system-change-not-climate-change/)

G8 Climate Change Roundtable


The G8 Climate Change Roundtable was formed in January 2005 at the World Economic Forum in Davos. The
first meeting was held in Gleneagles, Scotland, from 6–8 July 2005, to coincide with the 31st G8 summit.
The roundtable was established by twenty-three leading international businesses with the assistance of the British
Prime Minister Tony Blair, to co-operatively engage in a global plan of action.[1] The aim of the group was to ensure
that a long-term policy framework is set up to enable market-based solutions in mitigating climate change and to
address issues regarding global warming. Carbon trading is one of the most popular pricing mechanisms used to the
reduce greenhouse emissions worldwide.
The group devised a Framework for Action which called for technology incentive programs, the establishment of
common metrics,[2] for example in energy efficiency, and the expansion of emissions trading schemes.
Some of the companies participating include Ford, British Airways, HSBC, EdF and BP.[3]
Environmentalists raised concerns that the body's statement does not call for targets or include timetables.[3] Friends
of the Earth noted that the roundtable represented a major shift by the business community towards efforts to
mitigate climate change.[3]

References
[1] "Bush Heads for G8 With Malaria Relief, Nod to Climate Change" (http:/ / www. ens-newswire. com/ ens/ jul2005/ 2005-07-01-01. asp).
Environmental News Service. 2005-07-01. . Retrieved 2009-12-04.
[2] "More Business Leaders Support Action on Climate Change" (http:/ / www. climatebiz. com/ news/ 2005/ 07/ 10/
more-business-leaders-support-action-climate-change). ClimateBiz. Greener World Media. 2005-07-10. . Retrieved 2009-12-04.
[3] Jeremy Lovell (2005-06-10). "Big Business Urges Urgent G8 Global Warming Action" (http:/ / www. planetark. com/ dailynewsstory. cfm/
newsid/ 31198/ story. htm). Planet Ark. Thomson Reuters. . Retrieved 2009-12-04.

External links
• Statement expressing strong support for action to mitigate climate change (http://www.pewclimate.org/
docUploads/WEF G8 CC Roundtable Statement.pdf)
Fossil-fuel phase-out 447

Fossil-fuel phase-out
A fossil fuel phase-out are plans for transport electrification, decommissioning of operating fossil fuel-fired power
plants and prevention of the construction of new fossil-fuel-fired power stations. The purpose of this is to decrease
the high concentration of greenhouse gas emissions, which are the scientific consensus for the cause of the current
climate change.[1] The energy vectors concerned are oil, gas and coal.

Studies about coal phase out and climate change


A 38-page document authored by James E. Hansen and eight other scientists, titled "Target Atmospheric CO2:
Where Should Humanity Aim?" calls for phasing out coal power completely by the year 2030.[2]
In 2008 Pushker Kharecha and James E. Hansen published a peer-reviewed scientific study analyzing the effect of a
coal phase-out on atmospheric CO2 levels.[3] Their baseline mitigation scenario was a phaseout of global coal
emissions by 2050. The authors describe the scenario as follows:
The second scenario, labeled Coal Phase-out, is meant to approximate a situation in which developed countries
freeze their CO2 emissions from coal by 2012 and a decade later developing countries similarly halt increases
in coal emissions. Between 2025 and 2050 it is assumed that both developed and developing countries will
linearly phase out emissions of CO2 from coal usage. Thus in Coal Phase-out we have global CO2 emissions
from coal increasing 2% per year until 2012, 1% per year growth of coal emissions between 2013 and 2022,
flat coal emissions for 2023–2025, and finally a linear decrease to zero CO2 emissions from coal in 2050.
These rates refer to emissions to the atmosphere and do not constrain consumption of coal, provided the CO2 is
captured and sequestered. Oil and gas emissions are assumed to be the same as in the BAU [Business as
Usual] scenario.
Kharecha and Hansen also consider three other mitigation scenarios, all with the same coal phase-out schedule but
each making different assumptions about the size of oil and gas reserves and the speed at which they are depleted.
Under the Business as Usual scenario, atmospheric CO2 peaks at 563 parts per million (ppm) in the year 2100. Under
the four coal phase-out scenarios, atmospheric CO2 peaks at 422-446 ppm between 2045 and 2060 and declines
thereafter. The key implications of the study are as follows: a phase-out of coal emissions is the most important
remedy for mitigating human-induced global warming; actions should be taken toward limiting or stretching out the
use of conventional oil and gas; and strict emissions-based constraints are needed for future use of unconventional
fossil fuels such as methane hydrates and tar sands.
In the Greenpeace and EREC's Energy (R)evolution scenario,[4] the world would eliminate all fossil fuel use by
2090.[5] [6] [7]

Coal
Fossil-fuel phase-out 448

A significant portion of total global carbon emissions are from


electricity generation - coal, specifically, accounts for up to one-third
of global carbon emissions. So to decrease carbon emissions and thus
possibly stop extreme climate change from occurring, coal should be
phased out.[9] [10]
This course of action is being undertaken by several governments.
Germany is an example of a country that is phasing out coal[11] [12] [13]
[14] [15]
Solar and wind are major sources of energy and renewable Coal fired power plants provide 45% of
[16] [8]
energy generation, currently around 15%, is growing. Coal is still a consumed electricity in the United States. This
is the Castle Gate Plant near Helper, Utah.
source of power in Germany, but it is gradually being replaced with
renewable energy. Globally, coal is one the largest sources of energy in
the world. During 2006, 27 percent of the world's primary energy is generated from the burning of coal.[17] As a way
to phase out coal, a few countries, in which coal is primary source of energy, have enacted legislation to prevent the
construction of any new coal facilities and to close operating coal fired facilities. Also in several such countries,
initiatives have been started to support the viability of the renewable energy industry to replace decommissioned coal
facilities. However, many other countries, such as the United States and Great Britain,[18] but especially China and
India, are planning increased coal production to aid their economic advance. Both China and India have large
reserves of coal, but relatively little oil, natural gas, hydro, solar or wind capacity, and are heavily dependent on coal
for electricity generation. According to Scientific American, the average coal plant emits more than 100 times as
much radiation per year than a comparatively sized nuclear power plant does, in the form of toxic, radioactive fly
ash.[19]

Some believe that coal should not be phased out and that clean coal technology is the way all emission from the
burning of coal can be restrained. But the renewable energy infrastructure, unlike unproven carbon-capture
technology, is being deployed now. Some environmentalists and climatologists support a phase-out and criticise
clean coal as not a solution to climate change, while entrepreneurs promote improved regulations and modernised
technology. Others point out that such a policy would affect developing countries most seriously because of the
scarcity of other fossil fuels.

Legislation and initiatives to phase out coal

G20
The 20 leaders of the world's top industrialized nations, as well as key countries with developing economies, have
agreed to phase out their subsidies for fossil fuels, including coal. In a concluding statement from the Group of 20
(G20) Summit—held in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on September 24 and 25, 2009 —the nations' leaders agreed to
"phase out and rationalize over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies." The G20 leaders also called for
targeted support for poor people that would be impacted by higher prices for fossil fuels. The leaders noted that
"inefficient" fossil-fuel subsidies "encourage wasteful consumption, reduce our energy security, impede investment
in clean energy sources, and undermine efforts to deal with the threat of climate change." The agreement will
ultimately phase out nearly $300 billion in global subsidies for fossil fuels. And as noted in a White House fact
sheet, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the International Energy Agency estimate
that eliminating fossil fuel subsidies worldwide would cut global greenhouse gas emissions by 10% or more by
2050.[20] [21] [22]
Fossil-fuel phase-out 449

Australia
The Australian Greens party have proposed to phase out coal power stations. The NSW Greens proposed an
immediate moratorium on coal-fired power stations and want to end all coal mining and coal industry subsidies. The
Federal Government's proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, an emissions trading scheme will, if enacted,
make it more difficult for new coal fired power stations to be developed. The Federal Government and Victorian
State Government want to modify existing coal-fired power stations into clean coal power stations. The Federal
Labor government extended the mandatory renewable energy targets, an initiative to ensure that new sources of
electricity are more likely to be from wind power, solar power and other sources of renewable energy in Australia.

Canada

Ontario
Ontario has passed coal phase-out legislation.[23] In 2007, Ontario's Liberal government committed to phasing out all
coal generation in the province by 2014. Premier Dalton McGuinty said, "By 2030 there will be about 1,000 more
new coal-fired generating stations built on this planet. There is only one place in the world that is phasing out
coal-fired generation and we're doing that right here in Ontario."[24]

China
There are currently no plans to phase out coal burning power stations in China. In fact, it's quite the reverse.
China’s exceedingly high energy demand has pushed the demand for relatively cheap coal-fired power. Each week,
another 2GW of coal-fired power is put online in China. Coal supplies about 80% of China's energy needs today, and
that ratio is expected to continue, even as overall power usage grows rapidly.
In addition to the huge investments in coal power, China is also building large nuclear power plants. The largest
hydro power plant in the world, the Three Gorges Dam, is also the largest power plant of any kind, and it operates in
China.

India
India is in no way phasing out coal or fossil fuels in general. The annual report of India's Power Ministry has a plan
to grow power by about 80GW as part of their 11th 5-year plan, and 79% of that growth will be in fossil-fuel fired
power plants, primarily coal.[25] India plans four new "ultra mega" coal-fired power plants as part of that growth,
each 4000MW in capacity.

Germany
Current Chancellor Angela Merkel, and her party colleagues in 2007 agreed to legislation to phase out Germany's
lignite mining sector. That does not mean, that they phase out coal in general. There are about 25 new plants to be
built in the next years. Most German coal power plants are from the 1960s with low energy efficiency. The public
resistance against coal power plants is growing and the construction or planning of some plants was successfully
stopped.[11] [12] [13] [14] [15]
Fossil-fuel phase-out 450

New Zealand
In October 2007 the Clark Labour government introduced a moratorium on coal-fired power plants.[26] The ban was
limited to state-owned utilities, though an extension to private sector was considered. The Key National government
elected in November 2008 lifted the moratorium.

South Africa
Around 77% of South Africa's energy demand is directly met by coal,[27] and when current projects come online, this
ratio will increase in the near term.
There are no plans to phase out coal fired power plants in South Africa, and indeed, the country is investing in
building massive amounts of new coal-fired capacity to meet power demands, as well as modernizing the existing
coal-fired plants to meet environmental requirements.
On April 6, 2010, the World Bank approved a $3.75B loan to SA to support the construction of the world's 4th
largest coal-fired plant, at Medupi.[28] The proposed World Bank loan includes a relatively small amount - $260
million - for wind and solar power.
Rated at 4800MW, Medupi would join other mammoth coal-fired power plants already in operation in the country,
namely Kendal (4100MW), Majuba (4100), and Matimba (4000), as well as a similar-capacity Kisile, at 4800MW,
currently under construction.[29] Kisile is expected to come online in stages, starting in 2012, while Medupi is
expected to first come online in 2013, with full capacity available by 2017. These schedules are provisional, and may
change.
Some estimate that after Kisile and Medupi come online, South Africa will then derive 94% of its domestic energy
from coal.

United Kingdom
Ed Miliband announced that no new coal-fired power stations will be built in Britain from 2009 onwards unless they
capture and bury at least 25% of greenhouse gases immediately and 100% by 2025 although at the time this was a
statement of intent rather than something he was able to enforce. [30]
Chris Huhne has confirmed that the legislation required to allow his office to enforce emissions standards are
proceeding. [31]
The UK is also subject to the EU's Large Combustion Plant Directive covering non-CO2 emissions which is
expected to bring many older plants to a close over the next few years as they are too expensive to upgrade. [32]

United States
As of 2007, 154 new coal-fired plants are on the drawing board in 42 states.[33]

California
California's SB 1368 created the first governmental moratorium on new coal plants in the United States. The law was
signed in September 2006 by Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger,[34] took effect for investor-owned
utilities in January 2007, and took effect for publicly owned utilities in August 2007. SB 1368 applied to long-term
investments (five years or more) by California utilities, whether in-state or out-of-state. It set the standard for
greenhouse gas emissions at 1,100 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour, the equal to the emissions of a
combined-cycle natural gas plant. This standard created a de facto moratorium on new coal, since it could not be met
without carbon capture and sequestration.[35]
Fossil-fuel phase-out 451

Maine
On April 15, 2008, Maine Governor John E. Baldacci signed LD 2126, "An Act To Minimize Carbon Dioxide
Emissions from New Coal-Powered Industrial and Electrical Generating Facilities in the State." The law, which was
sponsored by Rep. W. Bruce MacDonald (D-Boothbay), requires the Board of Environmental Protection to develop
greenhouse gas emission standards for coal gasification facilities. It also puts a moratorium in place on building any
new coal gasification facilities until the standards are developed.[36]

Texas
In 2006 a coalition of Texas groups organized a campaign in favor of a statewide moratorium on new coal-fired
power plants. The campaign culminated in a "Stop the Coal Rush" mobilization, including rallying and lobbying, at
the state capital in Austin on February 11 and 12th, 2007.[37] Over 40 citizen groups supported the mobilization.[38]
In January, 2007, A resolution calling for a 180-day moratorium on new pulverized coal plants was filed in the Texas
Legislature on Wednesday by State Rep. Charles "Doc" Anderson (R-Waco) as House Concurrent Resolution 43.[39]
The resolution was left pending in committee.[40] On December 4, 2007, Rep. Anderson announced his support for
two proposed integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) coal plants proposed by Luminant (formerly TXU).[41]

Washington state
Washington has followed the same approach as California, prohibiting coal plants whose emissions would exceed
those of natural gas plants. Substitute Senate Bill 6001 (SSB 6001), signed on May 3, 2007, by Governor Christine
Gregoire, enacted the standard.[42] As a result of SSB 6001, the Pacific Mountain Energy Center [43] in Kalama was
rejected by the state. However, a new plant proposal, the Wallula Energy Resource Center [44], shows the limits of
the "natural gas equivalency" approach as a means of stopping carbon dioxide emissions from coal plants. This
proposed plant would meet the standard set by SSB 6001, even though it would capture and sequester a portion (65
percent, according to a plant spokesman) of its carbon.[42]

Utility action in the US


• Progress Energy Carolinas[45] announced on June 1, 2007, that it was beginning a two-year moratorium on
proposals for new coal-fired power plants while it undertook more aggressive efficiency and conservation
programs. The company added, "Additional reductions in future electricity demand growth through energy
efficiency could push the need for new power plants farther into the future."[46]
• Public Service of Colorado[47] concluded in its November 2007 Resource Plan: "In sum, in light of the now likely
regulation of CO2 emissions in the future due to broader interest in climate change issues, the increased costs of
constructing new coal facilities,and the increased risk of timely permitting to meet planned in-service dates,
Public Service does not believe it would not be prudent to consider at this time any proposals for new coal plants
that do not include CO2 capture and sequestration.[48]
• Xcel Energy noted in its 2007 Resource Plan that "given the likelihood of future carbon regulation, we have only
modeled a future coal-based resource option that includes carbon capture and storage."[48]
• Minnesota Power Company[49] announced in December 2007 that it would not consider a new coal resource
without a carbon solution.[48]
• Avista Utilities[50] announced that it does not anticipate pursuing coal-fired power plants in the foreseeable
future.[48]
• NorthWestern Energy[51] announced on December 17, 2007, that it planned to double its wind power capacity
over the next seven years and steer away from new baseload coal plants. The plans are detailed in the company's
2007 Montana Electric Supply Resource Plan.[52]
Fossil-fuel phase-out 452

• California Energy Commission (CEC) has initiated its review of two 53.4-megawatt solar thermal power plants
that will each include a 40-megawatt biomass power plant to supplement the solar power.[53]

Public support for a coal moratorium

Opinion polls
[54]
In October, 2007, Civil Society Institute released the results of a poll of 1,003 U.S. citizens conducted by
Opinion Research Corporation.
The authors of the poll reported: "75 percent of Americans –-including 65 percent of Republicans, 83 percent of
Democrats and 76 percent of Independents—would 'support a five-year moratorium on new coal-fired power plants
in the United States if there was stepped-up investment in clean, safe renewable energy—such as wind and
solar—and improved home energy-efficiency standards.' Women (80 percent) were more likely than men (70
percent) to support this idea. Support also was higher among college graduates (78 percent) than among those who
did not graduate from high school (68 percent).[55]
The exact question posed by the survey was as follows: More than half of power plant-generated electricity comes
from coal. Experts say that power plants are responsible for about 40 percent of U.S. carbon dioxide pollution linked
to global warming. There are plans tobuild more than 150 new coal-fired power plants over the next several years.
Would you support a five-year moratorium on new coal-fired power plants in the United States if there was
stepped-up investment in clean, safe and renewable energy –such as wind and solar –and improved home
energy-efficiency standards? Would you say definitely yes, probably yes, probably no, definitely no, or don't know.
The results were as follows:[56]
• 30% "definitely yes"
• 45% "probably yes"
• 13% "probably no"
• 8% "definitely no"
• 4% "don't know"

CLEAN call to action


In October, 2007, fifteen groups led by Citizens Lead for Energy Action Now [57] (CLEAN) called for a five-year
moratorium on new coal-fired power plants, with no exception for plants sequestering carbon. The groups included
Save Our Cumberland Mountains (Tennessee); Ohio Valley Environmental Council (West Virginia); Cook Inlet
Keeper (Alaska); Christians for the Mountains (West Virginia); Coal River Mountain Watch (West Virginia);
Kentuckians for the Commonwealth (Kentucky); Civil Society Institute (Massachusetts); Clean Power Now
(Massachusetts); Indigenous Environmental Network (Minnesota); Castle Mountain Coalition (Alaska); Citizens
Action Coalition (Indiana); Appalachian Center for the Economy & the Environment (West Virginia); Appalachian
Voices (NC); and Rhode Island Wind Alliance (Rhode Island).[58]
Fossil-fuel phase-out 453

Other citizen groups supporting a coal moratorium


• 1Sky[59]
• Energy Action Coalition
• Rainforest Action Network[60]
• Kansas Sierra Club[61]
• Coal Moratorium Now![62]
• Step It Up! 2007[63]
• Co-op America[64]
• Rising Tide Australia[65]
• Lead for Energy Action Now (CLEAN)[66]
• SixDegrees.org[67]

Shareholder resolutions in favor of a coal moratorium


• Trillium Asset Management [68], a social investment management company, submitted the resolution
"Moratorium on Coal Financing" [69] to Bank of America in the 2007-2008 shareholder resolution season. The
resolution concluded:
"RESOLVED: Shareholders request that BOA’s board of directors amend its GHG emissions policies to
observe a moratorium on all financing, investment and further involvement in activities that support
MTR coal mining or the construction of new coal-burning power plants that emit carbon dioxide.[70]

Prominent individuals supporting a coal moratorium


• Al Gore:[71]


If you're a young person looking at the future of this planet and looking at what is being done right now, and not done, I believe we have
reached the stage where it is time for civil disobedience to prevent the construction of new coal plants that do not have carbon capture and
sequestration. ”
[72]
—Al Gore at the Clinton Global Initiative Annual Meeting

• Banker and financier Tom Sanzillo, currently First Deputy Comptroller for the state of New York, called for a
moratorium on new coal plants in the state of Iowa. Citing slow growth in electricity demand and better
alternative sources of energy, Sanzillo said, "It's not only good public policy, it's great economics."[73]
• Mary Wood, Professor of Law at the University of Oregon, called for a moratorium on new coal plants in an
videocast lecture to the University of Montana on February 19, 2008. Wood compared the urgency of the climate
crisis to World War II: “Nothing less than a massive global effort on the scale of WWII can save our climate.”[74]

Prominent individuals supporting a coal phase-out


• Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google, called for replacing all fossil fuels with renewable sources of energy in twenty
years.[75]

EPA lawyers supporting a coal moratorium


In May, 2008, Laurie Williams and Allan Zabel, two lawyers at the Environmental Protection Agency, wrote a
public letter opposing cap-and-trade solutions to greenhouse gas emissions and supporting a federal moratorium on
new coal plants that don't sequester their carbon dioxide emissions. The letter, "Urgent Plea for Enactment of Carbon
Fees and Ban on New Coal-Fired Power Plants without Carbon Sequestration," was written in their capacity as
citizens rather than in their capacity as EPA employees.[76]
Fossil-fuel phase-out 454

Mayors supporting a coal moratorium


On October 13, 2007, Pocatello, Idaho, mayor Roger Chase told other mayors from across the state attending an
Association of Idaho Cities legislative committee that he favored a moratorium no new coal plants in the state.[77]
On June 1, 2007, Park City, Utah, mayor Dana Wilson wrote a letter to Warren Buffett expressing the city's
opposition to three coal plants proposed by Rocky Mountain Power.[78]
In November 2007, Salt Lake City mayor Rocky Anderson expressed his support for a coal moratorium at a rally
organized by the Step It Up! campaign.[79]
In January 2008, Charlottesville, VA, mayor Dave Norris blogged in favor of a moratorium on new coal-fired power
plants.[80] On December 19, 2007, Charlottesville passed the Charlottesville Clean Energy Resolution[81] putting the
city on record as supporting a moratorium.

Other politicians supporting a moratorium


• Ed Fallon, running against incumbent Leonard Boswell for Democratic Party nomination for Iowa's 3rd
Congressional District, stated his support for a coal moratorium and criticized Boswell's statement that "coal will
be the mainstay for electricity for decades to come."[82]

Local governmental bodies supporting a coal moratorium


• In January, 2008, Black Hawk County (Iowa) Health Board recommended that the state adopt a moratorium on
new coal-fired power plants until it enacts tougher air pollution standards.[83]

Move Toward Renewables


Some electricity producers are changing from coal to renewables.

Toward Solar
The Colorado Public Utilities Commission approved Xcel's voluntary decision to shut down two coal-fired power
plants in the state and building one of the world's largest utility-scale solar power plants and adding 850 megawatts
of wind energy to its system .[84] [85]

Toward Biomass
Biomass power is a growing trend in the United States.[86] In 2006, Public Service of New Hampshire [87][88]
finished converting one of its coal-fired power plants into a 50-MW biomass power plant, the Northern Wood Power
Project [89], which is fueled with woodchips. In 2008, DTE Biomass Energy[90] (DTE Energy Company) agreed to
buy the 50-MW E.J. Stoneman Power Plant in Cassville, Wisconsin, with plans to convert it to burn wood waste in
2009.
Georgia Power, a subsidiary of Southern Company, asked the state's public service commission for approval to
convert the coal-fired Plant Mitchell to run on wood fuel. If approved, the retrofit will begin in 2011 and the biomass
plant will start operating in mid-2012. The 96-MW biomass plant will run on surplus wood from suppliers within a
100-mile radius of the plant, which is located near Albany, Georgia.
Coal-fired power plant in Pepeekeo, Hawaii, that formerly provided electricity to a sugar mill and has been out of
operations since 2004, is seeking approval for conversion into a 24-megawatt (MW) biomass power plant. MMA
Renewable Ventures planned to finance the proposed conversion but its solar assets (the Pepeekeo plant remains an
asset of the parent company Municipal Mortgage and Securities also known as MuniMae and MMA) were sold to
Fotowatio, a company headquartered in Spain, on April 16, 2009, according to MMA's 10K Report and press
releases. The plant was renamed the Hū Honua Bioenergy Facility by the lessees of the plant assets.
Fossil-fuel phase-out 455

www.huhonua.com went inactive website as of October 2009. The proposed changes have not yet been permitted or
publicly viewed. Located about 8 miles north of Hilo on the Big Island of Hawaii, the facility will draw on residual
wood from the local timber industry and other biomass wastes to produce enough power for about 18,000 homes,
meeting up to 10% of the Big Island's electricity needs. The plant has received opposition from two separate
community group. The first group, called Keep Our Island Clean[91] opposes the poor efficiency (only 20%) and lack
of pollution controls. Hu Honua has not agreed to installation of Best Available Control Technology (BACT). The
second group Save Our Pepeekeo[92] opposes the plant because of its proximity to local residence.
Companies are also building new power plants designed to run on biomass.

References
[1] IPCC. (2007) "Climate change 2007: the physical science basis (summary for policy makers) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/
ar4/ wg1/ en/ contents. html)"
[2] Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, P. Kharecha, D. Beerling, R. Berner, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. Pagani, M. Raymo, D.L. Royer, and J.C. Zachos (2008).
"Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?" (http:/ / www. columbia. edu/ ~jeh1/ 2008/ TargetCO2_20080407. pdf). Open
Atmos. Sci. J. 2: 217–231. doi:10.2174/1874282300802010217. . Retrieved 2 February 2009.
[3] Kharecha, P.A., and J.E. Hansen, "Implications of "peak oil" for atmospheric CO2 and climate," (http:/ / pubs. giss. nasa. gov/ abstracts/ 2008/
Kharecha_Hansen. html) Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 22, GB3012, doi:10.1029/2007GB003142
[4] http:/ / www. erec. org/ documents/ publications/ energy-revolution. html?0=
[5] http:/ / www. greenpeace. org/ international/ campaigns/ climate-change/ energyrevolution?utm_source=gpi-cyberactivist-list&
utm_medium=email& utm_campaign=er
[6] http:/ / www. erec. org/ fileadmin/ erec_docs/ Documents/ Press_Releases/ Press_release_Greenpeace_EREC__October_2008. pdf
[7] http:/ / environment. newscientist. com/ channel/ earth/ dn15043-world-can-halt-fossil-fuel-use-by-2090. html?feedId=online-news_rss20
[8] "Electric Power Monthly - Table 1.1. Net Generation by Energy Source" (http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ cneaf/ electricity/ epm/ table1_1. html).
US Energy Information Administration. 2011-02-14. . Retrieved 2011-02-27.
[9] Kharecha, P.A., and J.E. Hansen, "Implications of "peak oil" for atmospheric CO2 and climate," (http:/ / pubs. giss. nasa. gov/ abstracts/ 2008/
Kharecha_Hansen. html) Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 22, GB3012, doi:10.1029/2007GB003142
[10] * Big Coal: The Dirty Secret Behind America's Energy Future by Jeff Goodell. 324 pages (http:/ / www. houghtonmifflinbooks. com/
catalog/ titledetail. cfm?titleNumber=694238)
[11] "Germany to shut down coal mines in 2018" (http:/ / www. forbes. com/ feeds/ afx/ 2007/ 01/ 30/ afx3374339. html). Forbes. .
[12] http:/ / www. spiegel. de/ international/ 0,1518,463172,00. html
[13] "German plan to close coal mines" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ low/ business/ 6309841. stm). BBC News. January 29, 2007. . Retrieved
May 2, 2010.
[14] http:/ / www. iht. com/ articles/ ap/ 2007/ 08/ 08/ business/ EU-FIN-ECO-Germany-Coal-Mining. php
[15] http:/ / www. spiegel. de/ international/ 0,1518,463174,00. html
[16] http:/ / www. rncos. com/ Blog/ 2009/ 02/ Germany-targets-47-Renewable-Energy-Production-by-2020. html
[17] World Consumption of Primary Energy by Energy Type and Selected Country Groups (http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ pub/ international/ iealf/
table18. xls) December 31, 2008 Microsoft Excel file format table
[18] Eccleston, Paul (January 3, 2008). "Row over plan for new coal-fired power station" (http:/ / www. telegraph. co. uk/ earth/ earthnews/
3320412/ Row-over-plan-for-new-coal-fired-power-station. html). The Daily Telegraph (London). . Retrieved May 2, 2010.
[19] "Coal Ash Is More Radioactive than Nuclear Waste: By burning away all the pesky carbon and other impurities, coal power plants produce
heaps of radiation" (http:/ / www. scientificamerican. com/ article. cfm?id=coal-ash-is-more-radioactive-than-nuclear-waste). 2009-05-18. .
Retrieved 2009-05-18.
[20] http:/ / www. whitehouse. gov/ the_press_office/ Leaders-statement-on-the-Pittsburgh-summit/
[21] http:/ / www. whitehouse. gov/ the_press_office/ Remarks-by-the-President-at-G20-Closing-Press-Conference/
[22] http:/ / www. whitehouse. gov/ files/ documents/ g20/ Pittsburgh_Fact_Sheet_Energy_Security. pdf
[23] AllBusiness. Ontario's Coal Phase-out Will Have Drastic Consequences, Say The Thinking Companies (http:/ / www. allbusiness. com/
energy-utilities/ utilities-industry-electric-power/ 5013652-1. html). February 16, 2005
[24] http:/ / www. ctv. ca/ servlet/ ArticleNews/ story/ CTVNews/ 20070618/ ont_coal_plants_070618/ 20070618
[25] http:/ / powermin. nic. in/ indian_electricity_scenario/ pdf/ Annual_Report_2008-09_English. pdf
[26] "New Zealand issues ten-year ban on new thermal power plants" (http:/ / www. powergenworldwide. com/ index/ display/ articledisplay/
308764/ articles/ power-engineering/ industry-news/ new-zealand-issues-ten-year-ban-on-new-thermal-power-plants. html). Power-Gen
Worldwide. PennWell Corporation. 2007-10-11. . Retrieved 2011-01-07.
[27] http:/ / www. dme. gov. za/ energy/ coal. stm
[28] Webster, Ben (April 6, 2010). "Britain may block World Bank loan for coal plant in South Africa" (http:/ / www. timesonline. co. uk/ tol/
news/ environment/ article7088297. ece). The Times (London). . Retrieved May 2, 2010.
[29] http:/ / en. wikipedia. org/ wiki/ List_of_power_stations_in_South_Africa
Fossil-fuel phase-out 456

[30] http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2009/ apr/ 23/ clean-coal-energy-policy
[31] http:/ / www. businessgreen. com/ bg/ news/ 1806551/ huhne-promises-coal-plants-ccs
[32] http:/ / www. defra. gov. uk/ environment/ quality/ industrial/ eu-international/ lcpd/
[33] Eco Concern: Coal Plant Boom (http:/ / www. wired. com/ techbiz/ media/ news/ 2006/ 10/ 71952)
[34] http:/ / www. energy. ca. gov/ emission_standards/ index. html
[35] "California Takes on Power Plant Emissions: SB 1368 Sets Groundbreaking Greenhouse Gas Performance Standard," (http:/ / www.
solutionsforglobalwarming. org/ docs/ SB1368_FS_FINAL. pdf) Natural Resources Defense Council Fact Sheet, August 2007.
[36] Rhonda Erskine, "Maine Governor Baldacci Signs Bill to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions," (http:/ / www. wcsh6. com/ news/ article.
aspx?storyid=84867) WCSH6.com, April 15, 2008
[37] "Stop the Coal Rush" Rally & Lobby Day Set for February 11 & 12" (http:/ / texas. sierraclub. org/ press/ newsreleases/ 20070125. asp)
Sierra Club Lone Star Chapter.
[38] Stop the Coal Rush! Participating Organizations (http:/ / www. stopthecoalrush. com/ participating-organizations/ )
[39] Text of HCR 43 (http:/ / www. legis. state. tx. us/ tlodocs/ 80R/ billtext/ pdf/ HC00043I. pdf)
[40] Legislative history of HCR 43 (http:/ / www. legis. state. tx. us/ BillLookup/ History. aspx?LegSess=80R& Bill=HCR43)
[41] Rep. Anderson press release (http:/ / www. docandersonfortexas. com/ news. htm), December 4, 2007.
[42] Christina Russell, “Wallula Coal Plant Proposal Controversial Among Students, Faculty,” (http:/ / whitmanpioneer. com/ outdoors/ 2007/ 11/
15/ wallula-coal-plant-proposal-controversial-among-students-faculty/ ) Whitman College Pioneer, 11/15/07
[43] http:/ / www. energy-northwest. com/ generation/ igcc/ index. php
[44] http:/ / www. wallulaenergy. com/
[45] http:/ / customerservicenumbers. com/ co-progress-energy-carolinas
[46] "Progress Energy Carolinas sets goal of doubling efficiency savings to 2,000 MW," (http:/ / www. progress-energy. com/ aboutus/ news/
article. asp?id=16202) company press release, June 1, 2007.
[47] http:/ / www. rmao. com/ documents/ psco_rmao_oasis. html
[48] "Don't Get Burned: The Risks of Investing in New Coal-Fired Generating Facilities," (http:/ / www. iccr. org/ news/ press_releases/ pdf
files/ DontGetBurned08. pdf) Synapse Energy Economics, 2008, p. 11 (PDF file)
[49] http:/ / www. mnpower. com/
[50] http:/ / www. avistautilities. com/
[51] http:/ / www. northwesternenergy. com/
[52] "NorthWestern Energy Plans For More Wind; Says New Coal is Too Risky," (http:/ / www. rnp. org/ News/
news_NWEnergy2007IRP17Dec07. html) Renewable Northwest Project, 12/17/07.
[53] http:/ / apps1. eere. energy. gov/ news/ news_detail. cfm/ news_id=12363
[54] http:/ / www. civilsocietyinstitute. org/
[55] Opinion Research Corporation, A Post Fossil-Fuel America (http:/ / www. cleanenergyaction. net/ 101807_CLEAN_survey_report. pdf),
Executive Summary, National Opinion Survey Produced for Citizens Lead for Energy Action Now (CLEAN), A Project of the Civil Society
Institute, October 18, 2007
[56] Opinion Research Corporation, A Post Fossil-Fuel America (http:/ / www. cleanenergyaction. net/ 101807_CLEAN_survey_report. pdf),
National Opinion Survey Produced for Citizens Lead for Energy Action Now (CLEAN), A Project of the Civil Society Institute, page 18,
October 18, 2007
[57] http:/ / theclean. org/
[58] CLEAN press release (http:/ / www. cleanenergyaction. net/ 101807release. cfm), October 18, 2007.
[59] http:/ / www. 1sky. org/ about/ 1sky-solutions/ no-new-coal
[60] http:/ / ran. org/ what_we_do/ global_finance/ spotlight/ coal_is_over/
[61] http:/ / kansas. sierraclub. org/ Wind/ Coal%20Moratorium. htm
[62] http:/ / cmnow. org/
[63] http:/ / stepitup2007. org/ article. php?id=469
[64] http:/ / www. coopamerica. org/ programs/ climate/ dirtyenergy/ coal/ index. cfm
[65] http:/ / www. risingtide. org. au/ cleancoal
[66] http:/ / www. cleanenergyaction. net/ callaction. cfm Citizens
[67] http:/ / www. sixdegrees. org. au
[68] http:/ / www. trilliuminvest. com/
[69] http:/ / trilliuminvest. com/ resolutions/ moritorium-on-coal-financing/
[70] "Moratorium on Coal Financing," (http:/ / trilliuminvest. com/ resolutions/ moritorium-on-coal-financing/ ) accessed April 2008.
[71] Nobel Lecture (http:/ / nobelprize. org/ nobel_prizes/ peace/ laureates/ 2007/ gore-lecture_en. html), Oslo, December 10, 2007
[72] http:/ / envirowonk. com/ content/ view/ 368/ 1/
[73] Tom Sanzillo statement on YouTube (http:/ / www. youtube. com/ watch?v=zG0pUjBr8KU)
[74] Peter Metcalf, "Law Professor Says Government Obligated to Curb Climate Change," (http:/ / www. newwest. net/ topic/ article/
law_professor_says_government_obligated_to_curb_climate_change/ C38/ L38/ ) New West, 2/20/08.
[75] "Google CEO ERic Schmidt offers energy plan," (http:/ / www. mercurynews. com/ olympics/ ci_10419245) MercuryNews.com, 9/9/08
Fossil-fuel phase-out 457

[76] Urgent Plea for Enactment of Carbon Fees and Ban on New Coal-Fired Power Plants without Carbon Sequestration (http:/ / yubanet. com/
opinions/
Laurie-Williams-and-Allan-Zabel-Urgent-Plea-for-Enactment-of-Carbon-Fees-and-Ban-on-New-Coal-Fired-Power-Plants-without-Carbon-Sequestration.
php) Laurie Williams and Allan Zabel, May 6, 2008
[77] "E. Idaho Mayor Doesn't Want Coal-Fired Plant in State," (http:/ / www. localnews8. com/ Global/ story. asp?S=7211810) Associated Press,
10/14/07.
[78] Letter from Dana Wilson to Warren Buffett (http:/ / www. lesscoal. com/ ParkCity Endorsement. htm), June 1, 2007.
[79] "Event Report: Step It Up SLC," (http:/ / events. stepitup2007. org/ november/ reports/ 2097) 11/3/07.
[80] Mayor Dave Norris (2007-12-14). "Clean Energy for Cville & Beyond" (http:/ / cvilledave. blogspot. com/ 2007/ 12/
clean-energy-for-cville-beyond. html). CvilleDave. . Retrieved January 2008.
[81] http:/ / www. sourcewatch. org/ index. php/ Charlottesville_Clean_Energy_Resolution
[82] Fallon campaign: Fallon criticizes Boswell on taxpayer-funded 'environmental' mailing (http:/ / www. iowapolitics. com/ index.
iml?Article=117914), IowaPolitics.com, 2/11/08.
[83] "Board calls for coal plant moratorium," (http:/ / www. wcfcourier. com/ articles/ 2008/ 01/ 16/ news/ top_story/
doc478e26fd33f2f364595766. txt) WCFCourier.com, 1/16/08.
[84] http:/ / www. rockymountainnews. com/ news/ 2008/ aug/ 20/ xcel-ditching-2-coal-plants-going-to-solar/
[85] . http:/ / triangle. bizjournals. com/ triangle/ othercities/ denver/ stories/ 2008/ 08/ 18/ daily23. html.
[86] http:/ / www. eere. energy. gov/ news/ enn. cfm#id_11950
[87] http:/ / www. psnh. com/
[88] http:/ / nuwnotes1. nu. com/ apps/ mediarelease/ psnhpr. nsf/ ae4a5e02027c8da2852566740065f15e/
921ebbbc341fdd338525723a0071cc46?OpenDocument
[89] http:/ / www. psnh. com/ RenewableEnergy/ About-PSNH/ Northern-Wood-Power. aspx
[90] http:/ / www. dtebiomassenergy. com
[91] http:/ / www. keepourislandclean. com
[92] http:/ / www. saveourpepeekeo. com

External links
• US greens say coal must go - BBC News (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/428852.stm)
• Germany resolves to use 100 percent renewable energy (http://sustaindoor.googlepages.com/
GERMANY100PERCENTRENEWABLEENERGY.doc)
• Tipping point: Perspective of a climatologist. (http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2008/Hansen_1.html) In
State of the Wild 2008-2009: A Global Portrait of Wildlife, Wildlands, and Oceans. W. Woods, Ed. Wildlife
Conservation Society/Island Press, pp. 6–15.
Emissions trading 458

Emissions trading
Emissions trading is a market-based
approach used to control pollution by
providing economic incentives for achieving
reductions in the emissions of pollutants.[1]
It is a form of carbon pricing.
A central authority (usually a governmental
body) sets a limit or cap on the amount of a
pollutant that can be emitted. The limit or
cap is allocated or sold to firms in the form
of emissions permits which represent the
right to emit or discharge a specific volume
of the specified pollutant. Firms are required
to hold a number of permits (or carbon
credits) equivalent to their emissions. The
total number of permits cannot exceed the
cap, limiting total emissions to that level.
Firms that need to increase their emission
permits must buy permits from those who A coal power plant in Germany. Due to emissions trading, coal may become a less
[1] competitive fuel than other options.
require fewer permits. The transfer of
permits is referred to as a trade. In effect,
the buyer is paying a charge for polluting, while the seller is being rewarded for having reduced emissions. Thus, in
theory, those who can reduce emissions most cheaply will do so, achieving the pollution reduction at the lowest cost
to society.[2]

There are active trading programs in several air pollutants. For greenhouse gases the largest is the European Union
Emission Trading Scheme.[3] In the United States there is a national market to reduce acid rain and several regional
markets in nitrogen oxides.[4] Markets for other pollutants tend to be smaller and more localized.

Pollution as an Externality
By definition, an externality is an activity of one entity that affects the welfare of another entity in a way that is
outside the market mechanism.[5] Pollution is the prime example most economists think of when discussing
externalities. There are many different ways to address these from a public economics perspective including
emissions fees, cap-and-trade, and command-and-control regulation. Here we will discuss cap-and-trade as the
chosen public response to externalities.

Overview
The overall goal of an emissions trading plan is to minimize the cost of meeting a set emissions target.[6] The cap is
an enforceable limit on emissions that is usually lowered over time — aiming towards a national emissions reduction
target.[6] In other systems a portion of all traded credits must be retired, causing a net reduction in emissions each
time a trade occurs. In many cap-and-trade systems, organizations which do not pollute may also participate, thus
environmental groups can purchase and retire allowances or credits and hence drive up the price of the remainder
according to the law of demand.[7] Corporations can also prematurely retire allowances by donating them to a
nonprofit entity and then be eligible for a tax deduction.
Emissions trading 459

Definitions
The economics literature provides the following definitions of cap and trade emissions trading schemes.
A cap-and-trade system constrains the aggregate emissions of regulated sources by creating a limited number of
tradable emission allowances, which emission sources must secure and surrender in number equal to their
emissions.[8]
In an emissions trading or cap-and-trade scheme, a limit on access to a resource (the cap) is defined and then
allocated among users in the form of permits. Compliance is established by comparing actual emissions with permits
surrendered including any permits traded within the cap.[9]
Under a tradable permit system, an allowable overall level of pollution is established and allocated among firms in
the form of permits. Firms that keep their emission levels below their allotted level may sell their surplus permits to
other firms or use them to offset excess emissions in other parts of their facilities.[10]

Market-based and least-cost


Economists have urged the use of "market-based" instruments such as emissions trading to address environmental
problems instead of prescriptive "command and control" regulation.[11] Command and control regulation is criticized
for being excessively rigid, insensitive to geographical and technological differences, and for being inefficient.[12]
However, emissions trading requires a cap to effectively reduce emissions, and the cap is a government regulatory
mechanism. After a cap has been set by a government political process, individual companies are free to choose how
or if they will reduce their emissions. Failure to reduce emissions is often punishable by a further government
regulatory mechanism, a fine that increases costs of production. Firms will choose the least-costly way to comply
with the pollution regulation, which will lead to reductions where the least expensive solutions exist, while allowing
emissions that are more expensive to reduce.

Emission markets
For trading purposes, one allowance or CER is considered equivalent to one metric ton of CO2 emissions. These
allowances can be sold privately or in the international market at the prevailing market price. These trade and settle
internationally and hence allow allowances to be transferred between countries. Each international transfer is
validated by the UNFCCC. Each transfer of ownership within the European Union is additionally validated by the
European Commission.
Climate exchanges have been established to provide a spot market in allowances, as well as futures and options
market to help discover a market price and maintain liquidity. Carbon prices are normally quoted in Euros per tonne
of carbon dioxide or its equivalent (CO2e). Other greenhouse gasses can also be traded, but are quoted as standard
multiples of carbon dioxide with respect to their global warming potential. These features reduce the quota's
financial impact on business, while ensuring that the quotas are met at a national and international level.
Currently there are six exchanges trading in carbon allowances: the Chicago Climate Exchange, European Climate
Exchange, NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe, PowerNext, Commodity Exchange Bratislava and the European
Energy Exchange. NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe listed a contract to trade offsets generated by a CDM
carbon project called Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). Many companies now engage in emissions abatement,
offsetting, and sequestration programs to generate credits that can be sold on one of the exchanges. At least one
private electronic market has been established in 2008: CantorCO2e.[13] Carbon credits at Commodity Exchange
Bratislava are traded at special platform - Carbon place.[14]
Managing emissions is one of the fastest-growing segments in financial services in the City of London with a market
estimated to be worth about €30 billion in 2007. Louis Redshaw, head of environmental markets at Barclays Capital
predicts that "Carbon will be the world's biggest commodity market, and it could become the world's biggest market
overall."[15]
Emissions trading 460

History
The efficiency of what later was to be called the "cap-and-trade" approach to air pollution abatement was first
demonstrated in a series of micro-economic computer simulation studies between 1967 and 1970 for the National
Air Pollution Control Administration (predecessor to the United States Environmental Protection Agency's Office of
Air and Radiation) by Ellison Burton and William Sanjour. These studies used mathematical models of several cities
and their emission sources in order to compare the cost and effectiveness of various control strategies.[16] [17] [18] [19]
[20]
Each abatement strategy was compared with the "least cost solution" produced by a computer optimization
program to identify the least costly combination of source reductions in order to achieve a given abatement goal.[21]
In each case it was found that the least cost solution was dramatically less costly than the same amount of pollution
reduction produced by any conventional abatement strategy.[22] Burton and later Sanjour along with Edward H.
Pechan continued improving [23] and advancing[24] these computer models at the newly-created U.S. Environmental
Protection agency. The agency introduced the concept of computer modeling with least cost abatement strategies
(i.e. emissions trading) in its 1972 annual report to Congress on the cost of clean air. [25] This led to the concept of
"cap and trade" as a means of achieving the "least cost solution" for a given level of abatement.
The development of emissions trading over the course of its history can be divided into four phases:[26]
1. Gestation: Theoretical articulation of the instrument (by Coase,[27] Crocker,[28] Dales,[29] Montgomery[30] etc.)
and, independent of the former, tinkering with "flexible regulation" at the US Environmental Protection Agency.
2. Proof of Principle: First developments towards trading of emission certificates based on the "offset-mechanism"
taken up in Clean Air Act in 1977.
3. Prototype: Launching of a first "cap-and-trade" system as part of the US Acid Rain Program in Title IV of the
1990 Clean Air Act, officially announced as a paradigm shift in environmental policy, as prepared by "Project
88", a network-building effort to bring together environmental and industrial interests in the US.
4. Regime formation: branching out from the US clean air policy to global climate policy, and from there to the
European Union, along with the expectation of an emerging global carbon market and the formation of the
"carbon industry".
In the United States, the "acid rain"-related emission trading system was principally conceived by C. Boyden Gray, a
G.H.W. Bush administration attorney. Gray worked with the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), who worked with
the EPA to write the bill that became law as part of the Clean Air Act of 1990. The new emissions cap on NOx and
SO2 gases took effect in 1995, and according to Smithsonian Magazine, those acid rain emissions dropped 3 million
tons that year.[31]

Comparison of cap-and-trade with other methods of emission reduction


Cap-and-trade, offsets created through a baseline and credit approach, and a carbon tax are all market-based
approaches that put a price on carbon and other greenhouse gases and provide an economic incentive to reduce
emissions, beginning with the lowest-cost opportunities.
The textbook emissions trading program can be called a "cap-and-trade" approach in which an aggregate cap on all
sources is established and these sources are then allowed to trade amongst themselves to determine which sources
actually emit the total pollution load. An alternative approach with important differences is a baseline and credit
program.[32]
In a baseline and credit program polluters that are not under an aggregate cap can create credits, usually called
offsets, by reducing their emissions below a baseline level of emissions. Such credits can be purchased by polluters
that do have a regulatory limit.[33]
Emissions trading 461

Economics of international emissions trading


It is possible for a country to reduce emissions using a Command-Control approach, such as regulation, direct and
indirect taxes. The cost of that approach differs between countries because the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve
(MAC) — the cost of eliminating an additional unit of pollution — differs by country. It might cost China $2 to
eliminate a ton of CO2, but it would probably cost Sweden or the U.S. much more. International emissions-trading
markets were created precisely to exploit differing MACs.

Example
Emissions trading through Gains from Trade can be more beneficial for both the buyer and the seller than a simple
emissions capping scheme.
Consider two European countries, such as Germany and Sweden. Each can either reduce all the required amount of
emissions by itself or it can choose to buy or sell in the market.
For this example let us assume that
Germany can abate its CO2 at a much
cheaper cost than Sweden, e.g. MACS
> MACG where the MAC curve of
Sweden is steeper (higher slope) than
that of Germany, and RReq is the total
amount of emissions that need to be
reduced by a country.

On the left side of the graph is the


MAC curve for Germany. RReq is the
amount of required reductions for
Germany, but at RReq the MACG curve
has not intersected the market
allowance price of CO2 (market Example MACs for two different countries

allowance price = P = λ). Thus, given


the market price of CO2 allowances, Germany has potential to profit if it abates more emissions than required.

On the right side is the MAC curve for Sweden. RReq is the amount of required reductions for Sweden, but the
MACS curve already intersects the market price of CO2 allowances before RReq has been reached. Thus, given the
market allowance price of CO2, Sweden has potential to make a cost saving if it abates fewer emissions than
required internally, and instead abates them elsewhere.
In this example, Sweden would abate emissions until its MACS intersects with P (at R*), but this would only reduce
a fraction of Sweden’s total required abatement. After that it could buy emissions credits from Germany for the price
P (per unit). The internal cost of Sweden’s own abatement, combined with the credits it buys in the market from
Germany, adds up to the total required reductions (RReq) for Sweden. Thus Sweden can make a saving from buying
credits in the market (Δ d-e-f). This represents the "Gains from Trade", the amount of additional expense that
Sweden would otherwise have to spend if it abated all of its required emissions by itself without trading.
Germany made a profit on its additional emissions abatement, above what was required: it met the regulations by
abating all of the emissions that was required of it (RReq). Additionally, Germany sold its surplus to Sweden as
credits, and was paid P for every unit it abated, while spending less than P. Its total revenue is the area of the graph
(RReq 1 2 R*), its total abatement cost is area (RReq 3 2 R*), and so its net benefit from selling emission credits is the
area (Δ 1-2-3) i.e. Gains from Trade
The two R* (on both graphs) represent the efficient allocations that arise from trading.
• Germany: sold (R* - RReq) emission credits to Sweden at a unit price P.
Emissions trading 462

• Sweden bought emission credits from Germany at a unit price P.


If the total cost for reducing a particular amount of emissions in the Command Control scenario is called X, then to
reduce the same amount of combined pollution in Sweden and Germany, the total abatement cost would be less in
the Emissions Trading scenario i.e. (X — Δ 123 - Δ def).
The example above applies not just at the national level: it applies just as well between two companies in different
countries, or between two subsidiaries within the same company.

Applying the economic theory


The nature of the pollutant plays a very important role when policy-makers decide which framework should be used
to control pollution.
CO2 acts globally, thus its impact on the environment is generally similar wherever in the globe it is released. So the
location of the originator of the emissions does not really matter from an environmental standpoint.[34]
The policy framework should be different for regional pollutants[35] (e.g. SO2 and NOX, and also mercury) because
the impact exerted by these pollutants may not be the same in all locations. The same amount of a regional pollutant
can exert a very high impact in some locations and a low impact in other locations, so it does actually matter where
the pollutant is released. This is known as the Hot Spot problem.
A Lagrange framework is commonly used to determine the least cost of achieving an objective, in this case the total
reduction in emissions required in a year. In some cases it is possible to use the Lagrange optimization framework to
determine the required reductions for each country (based on their MAC) so that the total cost of reduction is
minimized. In such a scenario, the Lagrange multiplier represents the market allowance price (P) of a pollutant, such
as the current market allowance price of emissions in Europe and the USA.[36]
Countries face the market allowance price that exists in the market that day, so they are able to make individual
decisions that would minimize their costs while at the same time achieving regulatory compliance. This is also
another version of the Equi-Marginal Principle, commonly used in economics to choose the most economically
efficient decision.

Prices versus quantities, and the safety valve


There has been longstanding debate on the relative merits of price versus quantity instruments to achieve emission
reductions.[37]
An emission cap and permit trading system is a quantity instrument because it fixes the overall emission level
(quantity) and allows the price to vary. Uncertainty in future supply and demand conditions (market volatility)
coupled with a fixed number of pollution credits creates an uncertainty in the future price of pollution credits, and
the industry must accordingly bear the cost of adapting to these volatile market conditions. The burden of a volatile
market thus lies with the industry rather than the controlling agency, which is generally more efficient. However,
under volatile market conditions, the ability of the controlling agency to alter the caps will translate into an ability to
pick "winners and losers" and thus presents an opportunity for corruption.
In contrast, an emission tax is a price instrument because it fixes the price while the emission level is allowed to vary
according to economic activity. A major drawback of an emission tax is that the environmental outcome (e.g. a limit
on the amount of emissions) is not guaranteed. On one hand, a tax will remove capital from the industry, suppressing
possibly useful economic activity, but conversely, the polluter will not need to hedge as much against future
uncertainty since the amount of tax will track with profits. The burden of a volatile market will be borne by the
controlling (taxing) agency rather than the industry itself, which is generally less efficient. An advantage is that,
given a uniform tax rate and a volatile market, the taxing entity will not be in a position to pick "winners and losers"
and the opportunity for corruption will be less.
Emissions trading 463

Assuming no corruption and assuming that the controlling agency and the industry are equally efficient at adapting
to volatile market conditions, the best choice depends on the sensitivity of the costs of emission reduction, compared
to the sensitivity of the benefits (i.e., climate damages avoided by a reduction) when the level of emission control is
varied.
Because there is high uncertainty in the compliance costs of firms, some argue that the optimum choice is the price
mechanism. However, the burden of uncertainty cannot be eliminated, and in this case it is shifted to the taxing
agency itself.
Some scientists have warned of a threshold in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide beyond which a
run-away warming effect could take place, with a large possibility of causing irreversible damages. If this is a
conceivable risk then a quantity instrument could be a better choice because the quantity of emissions may be capped
with a higher degree of certainty. However, this may not be true if this risk exists but cannot be attached to a known
level of GHG concentration or a known emission pathway.[38]
A third option, known as a safety valve, is a hybrid of the price and quantity instruments. The system is essentially an
emission cap and permit trading system but the maximum (or minimum) permit price is capped. Emitters have the
choice of either obtaining permits in the marketplace or purchasing them from the government at a specified trigger
price (which could be adjusted over time). The system is sometimes recommended as a way of overcoming the
fundamental disadvantages of both systems by giving governments the flexibility to adjust the system as new
information comes to light. It can be shown that by setting the trigger price high enough, or the number of permits
low enough, the safety valve can be used to mimic either a pure quantity or pure price mechanism.[39]
All three methods are being used as policy instruments to control greenhouse gas emissions: the EU-ETS is a
quantity system using the cap and trading system to meet targets set by National Allocation Plans; Denmark has a
price system using a carbon tax (World Bank, 2010, p. 218),[40] while China uses the CO2 market price for funding
of its Clean Development Mechanism projects, but imposes a safety valve of a minimum price per tonne of CO2.

Carbon leakage
Carbon leakage is the effect that regulation of emissions in one country/sector has on the emissions in other
countries/sectors that are not subject to the same regulation (Barker et al.., 2007).[41] There is no consensus over the
magnitude of long-term carbon leakage (Goldemberg et al., 1996, p. 31).[42]
In the Kyoto Protocol, Annex I countries are subject to caps on emissions, but non-Annex I countries are not. Barker
et al.. (2007) assessed the literature on leakage. The leakage rate is defined as the increase in CO2 emissions outside
of the countries taking domestic mitigation action, divided by the reduction in emissions of countries taking domestic
mitigation action. Accordingly, a leakage rate greater than 100% would mean that domestic actions to reduce
emissions had had the effect of increasing emissions in other countries to a greater extent, i.e., domestic mitigation
action had actually led to an increase in global emissions.
Estimates of leakage rates for action under the Kyoto Protocol ranged from 5 to 20% as a result of a loss in price
competitiveness, but these leakage rates were viewed as being very uncertain.[43] For energy-intensive industries, the
beneficial effects of Annex I actions through technological development were viewed as possibly being substantial.
This beneficial effect, however, had not been reliably quantified. On the empirical evidence they assessed, Barker et
al.. (2007) concluded that the competitive losses of then-current mitigation actions, e.g., the EU ETS, were not
significant.
Emissions trading 464

Trade
One of the controversies about carbon mitigation policy thus arises about how to "level the playing field" with border
adjustments.[44] One component of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, for example, along with several
other energy bills put before Congress, calls for carbon surcharges on goods imported from countries without
cap-and-trade programs. Even aside from issues of compliance with the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade,
such border adjustments presume that the producing countries bear responsibility for the carbon emissions.
A general perception among developing countries is that discussion of climate change in trade negotiations could
lead to "green protectionism" by high-income countries (World Bank, 2010, p. 251).[40] Tariffs on imports ("virtual
carbon") consistent with a carbon price of $50 per ton of CO2 could be significant for developing countries. World
Bank (2010) commented that introducing border tariffs could lead to a proliferation of trade measures where the
competitive playing field is viewed as being uneven. Tariffs could also be a burden on low-income countries that
have contributed very little to the problem of climate change.

Trading systems

Kyoto Protocol
As the IPCC reports came in over the years they shed abundant light on the true state of global warming and they
gave support to the environmental effort to address this unprecedented problem. However, the same discussions that
started decades back had never ceased and the crusade for a tangible solution to global climate change had gone on
all the while. In 1997 the Kyoto Protocol was adopted. The Kyoto Protocol is a 1997 international treaty which came
into force in 2005. In the treaty, most developed nations agreed to legally binding targets for their emissions of the
six major greenhouse gases.[45] Emission quotas (known as "Assigned amounts") were agreed by each participating
'Annex 1' country, with the intention of reducing the overall emissions by 5.2% from their 1990 levels by the end of
2012. The United States is the only industrialized nation under Annex I that has not ratified the treaty, and is
therefore not bound by it. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has projected that the financial effect of
compliance through trading within the Kyoto commitment period will be limited at between 0.1-1.1% of GDP
among trading countries.[46]
The Protocol defines several mechanisms ("flexible mechanisms") that are designed to allow Annex I countries to
meet their emission reduction commitments (caps) with reduced economic impact (IPCC, 2007).[47]
Under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol, Annex 1 Parties may use GHG removals, from afforestation and
reforestation (forest sinks) and deforestation (sources) since 1990, to meet their emission reduction commitments.[48]
Annex 1 Parties may also use International Emissions Trading (IET). Under the treaty, for the 5-year compliance
period from 2008 until 2012,[49] nations that emit less than their quota will be able to sell Assigned amount units to
nations that exceed their quota.[50] It is also possible for Annex I countries to sponsor carbon projects that reduce
greenhouse gas emissions in other countries. These projects generate tradable carbon credits that can be used by
Annex I countries in meeting their caps. The project-based Kyoto Mechanisms are the Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI).
The CDM covers projects taking place in non-Annex I countries, while JI covers projects taking place in Annex I
countries. CDM projects are supposed to contribute to sustainable development in developing countries, and also
generate "real" and "additional" emission savings, i.e., savings that only occur thanks to the CDM project in question
(Carbon Trust, 2009, p. 14).[51] Whether or not these emission savings are genuine is, however, difficult to prove
(World Bank, 2010, pp. 265–267).[40]
Emissions trading 465

Australia

Garnaut Draft Report


In 2003 the New South Wales (NSW) state government unilaterally established the NSW Greenhouse Gas
Abatement Scheme[52] to reduce emissions by requiring electricity generators and large consumers to purchase NSW
Greenhouse Abatement Certificates (NGACs). This has prompted the rollout of free energy-efficient compact
fluorescent lightbulbs and other energy-efficiency measures, funded by the credits. This scheme has been criticised
by the Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets (CEEM) of the UNSW because of its lack of effectiveness in
reducing emissions, its lack of transparency and its lack of verification of the additionality of emission reductions.[53]
On 4 June 2007, former Prime Minister John Howard announced an Australian Carbon Trading Scheme to be
introduced by 2012, but opposition parties called the plan "too little, too late".[54] On 24 November 2007 Howard's
coalition government lost a general election and was succeeded by the Labor Party, with Kevin Rudd taking over as
prime minister. Prime Minister Rudd announced that a cap-and-trade emissions trading scheme would be introduced
in 2010,[55] however this scheme was initially delayed by a year to mid-2011,[56] and in May 2010, it was
subsequently delayed further until 2013.[57]
Australia's Commonwealth, State and Territory Governments commissioned the Garnaut Climate Change Review, a
study by Professor Ross Garnaut on the mechanism of a potential emissions trading scheme. Its interim report was
released on 21 February 2008.[58] It recommended an emissions trading scheme that includes transportation but not
agriculture, and that emissions permits should be sold competitively and not allocated free to carbon polluters. It
recognised that energy prices will increase and that low income families will need to be compensated. It
recommended more support for research into low emissions technologies and a new body to oversee such research. It
also recognised the need for transition assistance for coal mining areas.[59]
In response to Garnaut's draft report, the Rudd Labor government issued a Green Paper[60] on 16 July that described
the intended design of the actual trading scheme.
Subsequent to this, the emission trading scheme proposed by the Government was defeated in the Senate, with the
Opposition, the Greens and two independent senators opposing the proposed legislation.[61]

New Zealand
The New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) is a national all-sectors all-greenhouse gases uncapped
emissions trading scheme first legislated in September 2008 by the Fifth Labour Government of New Zealand[62] [63]
and amended in November 2009 by the Fifth National Government of New Zealand.[64]
Although the NZ ETS covers all-sectors and all-gases, individual sectors of the economy have different entry dates
when their obligations to report emissions and surrender emission units have effect. Forestry, a net sink which
contributed removals of 14 Mts of CO2e in 2008 or 19% of NZ's 2008 emissions,[65] entered on 1 January 2008.[66]
Emissions from stationary energy, industrial and liquid fossil fuel sectors (34 Mts in 2008, 45% of 2008
emissions,[65] entered the NZ ETS on 1 July 2010. Agricultural emissions (mainly 35 Mts of methane and nitrous
oxide emissions from pastoral ruminants or 47% of 2008 emissions[65] ) do not enter the scheme until 1 January
2015.[67]
Tradable emission units will be issued by free allocation to emitters, with no auctions in the short term.[68] The
fishing sector will receive free units on a historic basis, 90 per cent of their 2005 emissions (bullet points 9 & 10
MfE September 2009[67] ). Pre-1990 forests will receive a fixed free allocation of 60 emissions units per hectare.[66]
Allocation to emissions-intensive industry,[69] and agriculture[70] will be provided on an output-intensity basis,
which will be based on the industry average emissions per unit of output and will be uncapped.[71] Bertram and
Terry (2010, p 16 ) state that as there is no 'cap' on emissions, the NZ ETS is not a cap and trade scheme as
understood in the economics literature.[72]
Emissions trading 466

A transition period will operate from 1 July 2010 until 31 December 2012. During this period the price of New
Zealand Emissions Units (NZUs) will be capped at NZ$25. Also, one unit will only need to be surrendered for every
two tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions, effectively reducing the carbon price to NZ$12.50 per tonne
(MfE 2009, second bullet point).[67]
Section 3 of the Climate Change Response Act 2002 (the Act) defines the purpose of the Act as to reduce emissions
from business-as-usual-levels and to fulfill New Zealand's international obligations under the United Nations Frame
Work Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol.[73] Some stakeholders have criticized the
New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme for its generous free allocations of emission units and the lack of a carbon
price signal (the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment),[74] and being ineffective in reducing emissions
(Greenpeace NZ).[75]

European Union
The European Union Emission Trading Scheme (or EU ETS) is the largest multi-national, greenhouse gas emissions
trading scheme in the world. It is one of the EU's central policy instruments to meet their cap set in the Kyoto
Protocol (Jones et al.., 2007, p. 64).[76]
After voluntary trials in the UK and Denmark, Phase I commenced operation in January 2005 with all 15 (now 25 of
the 27) member states of the European Union participating.[77] The program caps the amount of carbon dioxide that
can be emitted from large installations with a net heat supply in excess of 20 MW, such as power plants and carbon
intensive factories[78] and covers almost half (46%) of the EU's Carbon Dioxide emissions.[79] Phase I permits
participants to trade amongst themselves and in validated credits from the developing world through Kyoto's Clean
Development Mechanism.
During Phases I and II, allowances for emissions have typically been given free to firms, which has resulted in them
getting windfall profits (CCC, 2008, p. 149).[80] Ellerman and Buchner (2008) (referenced by Grubb et al.., 2009,
p. 11) suggested that during its first two years in operation, the EU ETS turned an expected increase in emissions of
1-2 percent per year into a small absolute decline.[81] Grubb et al.. (2009, p. 11) suggested that a reasonable estimate
for the emissions cut achieved during its first two years of operation was 50-100 MtCO2 per year, or 2.5-5 percent.
A number of design flaws have limited the effectiveness of scheme (Jones et al.., 2007, p. 64). In the initial 2005-07
period, emission caps were not tight enough to drive a significant reduction in emissions (CCC, 2008, p. 149). The
total allocation of allowances turned out to exceed actual emissions. This drove the carbon price down to zero in
2007. This oversupply reflects the difficulty in predicting future emissions which is necessary in setting a cap.
Phase II saw some tightening, but the use of JI and CDM offsets was allowed, with the result that no reductions in
the EU will be required to meet the Phase II cap (CCC, 2008, pp. 145, 149). For Phase II, the cap is expected to
result in an emissions reduction in 2010 of about 2.4% compared to expected emissions without the cap
(business-as-usual emissions) (Jones et al.., 2007, p. 64). For Phase III (2013–20), the European Commission has
proposed a number of changes, including:
• the setting an overall EU cap, with allowances then allocated to EU members;
• tighter limits on the use of offsets;
• unlimiting banking of allowances between Phases II and III;
• and a move from allowances to auctioning.
In January 2008 Norway, Iceland, and Lichtenstein, joined the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU
ETS) according to a publication from the European Commission.[82] The Norwegian Ministry of the Environment
has also released its draft National Allocation Plan which provides a carbon cap-and-trade of 15 million metric
tonnes of CO2, 8 million of which are set to be auctioned.[83] According to the OECD Economic Survey of Norway
2010, the nation "has announced a target for 2008-12 10% below its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol and a
30% cut compared with 1990 by 2020." [84]
Emissions trading 467

Tokyo, Japan
The Japanese city of Tokyo is like a country in its own right in terms of its energy consumption and GDP. Tokyo
consumes as much energy as "entire countries in Northern Europe, and its production matches the GNP of the
world’s 16th largest country".[85] Originally, Japan had its own cap and trade system that had been in place for some
years, but was not effective.[86] Japan has its own emission reduction policy but not a nationwide cap and trade
program. This climate strategy is enforced and overseen by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government (TMG).[87] The
first phase, which is alike to Japan's scheme, runs up to 2014, these organizations will have to cut their carbon
emissions by 6%; those who fail to operate within their emission caps will from 2011 on be required to purchase
emission allowances to cover any excess emissions, or alternatively, invest in renewable energy certificates or offset
credits issued by smaller businesses or branch offices.[88] Firms whom fail to comply will face fines. According to
local reports, organizations that do not operate within their caps will also be ordered to cut emissions by 1.3 times
the amount they failed to reduce during the first phase of the scheme. The long term aim is to cut the metropolis'
carbon emissions by 25% from 2000 levels by 2020.[88]

United States
An early example of an emission trading system has been the SO2 trading system under the framework of the Acid
Rain Program of the 1990 Clean Air Act in the U.S. Under the program, which is essentially a cap-and-trade
emissions trading system, SO2 emissions were reduced by 50% from 1980 levels by 2007.[89] Some experts argue
that the cap-and-trade system of SO2 emissions reduction has reduced the cost of controlling acid rain by as much as
80% versus source-by-source reduction.[11] [90]
In 1997, the State of Illinois adopted a trading program for volatile organic compounds in most of the Chicago area,
called the Emissions Reduction Market System.[91] Beginning in 2000, over 100 major sources of pollution in eight
Illinois counties began trading pollution credits.
In 2003, New York State proposed and attained commitments from nine Northeast states to form a cap-and-trade
carbon dioxide emissions program for power generators, called the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). This
program launched on January 1, 2009 with the aim to reduce the carbon "budget" of each state's electricity
generation sector to 10% below their 2009 allowances by 2018.[92]
Also in 2003, U.S. corporations were able to trade CO2 emission allowances on the Chicago Climate Exchange
under a voluntary scheme. In August 2007, the Exchange announced a mechanism to create emission offsets for
projects within the United States that cleanly destroy ozone-depleting substances.[93]
Also in 2003, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) began to administer the NOx Budget Trading Program
(NBP)under the NOx State Implementation Plan (also known as the “NOx SIP Call”) The NOx Budget Trading
Program was a market-based cap and trade program created to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from
power plants and other large combustion sources in the eastern United States. NOx is a prime ingredient in the
formation of ground-level ozone (smog), a pervasive air pollution problem in many areas of the eastern United
States. The NBP was designed to reduce NOx emissions during the warm summer months, referred to as the ozone
season, when ground-level ozone concentrations are highest. In March 2008, EPA again strengthened the 8-hour
ozone standard to 0.075 parts per million (ppm) from its previous 0.008 ppm.[94]
In 2006, the California Legislature passed the California Global Warming Solutions Act, AB-32, which was signed
into law by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Thus far, flexible mechanisms in the form of project based offsets
have been suggested for five main project types. The project types include: manure management, forestry, building
energy, SF6, and landfill gas capture. However, a recent ruling from Judge Ernest H. Goldsmith of San Francisco's
Superior Court states that the rules governing California's cap-and-trade system were adopted without a proper
analysis of alternative methods to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.[95] The tentative ruling, issued on January 24,
2011, argues that the California Air Resources Board violated state environmental law by failing to consider such
alternatives. If the decision is made final, the state would not be allowed to implement its proposed cap-and-trade
Emissions trading 468

system until the California Air Resources Board fully complies with the California Environmental Quality Act.[96]
Since February 2007, seven U.S. states and four Canadian provinces have joined together to create the Western
Climate Initiative (WCI),a regional greenhouse gas emissions trading system.[97] July 2010, a meeting took place to
further outline the cap-and-trade system which if accepted would curb greenhouse gas emissions by January
2012.[98]
On November 17, 2008 President-elect Barack Obama clarified, in a talk recorded for YouTube, his intentions for
the US to enter a cap-and-trade system to limit global warming.[99]
The 2010 United States federal budget proposes to support clean energy development with a 10-year investment of
US $15 billion per year, generated from the sale of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions credits. Under the proposed
cap-and-trade program, all GHG emissions credits would be auctioned off, generating an estimated $78.7 billion in
additional revenue in FY 2012, steadily increasing to $83 billion by FY 2019.[100]
The American Clean Energy and Security Act (H.R. 2454) , a greenhouse gas cap-and-trade bill, was passed on June
26, 2009, in the House of Representatives by a vote of 219-212. The bill originated in the House Energy and
Commerce Committee and was introduced by Rep. Henry A. Waxman and Rep. Edward J. Markey.[101] It was never
passed in the Senate. The big Republican wins in the November 2010 U.S. Congressional election have further
reduced the chances of a climate bill being adopted during President Barack Obama's first term.[102]

Renewable energy certificates


Renewable Energy Certificates, or "green tags", are transferable rights for renewable energy within some American
states. A renewable energy provider gets issued one green tag for each 1,000 kWh of energy it produces. The energy
is sold into the electrical grid, and the certificates can be sold on the open market for profit. They are purchased by
firms or individuals in order to identify a portion of their energy with renewable sources and are voluntary.
They are typically used like an offsetting scheme or to show corporate responsibility, although their issuance is
unregulated, with no national registry to ensure there is no double-counting. However, it is one way that an
organization could purchase its energy from a local provider who uses fossil fuels, but back it with a certificate that
supports a specific wind or hydro power project.

Carbon market
Carbon emissions trading is emissions trading specifically for carbon dioxide (calculated in tonnes of carbon dioxide
equivalent or tCO2e) and currently makes up the bulk of emissions trading. It is one of the ways countries can meet
their obligations under the Kyoto Protocol to reduce carbon emissions and thereby mitigate global warming.

Market trend
Carbon emissions trading has been steadily increasing in recent years. According to the World Bank's Carbon
Finance Unit, 374 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) were exchanged through projects in
2005, a 240% increase relative to 2004 (110 mtCO2e)[103] which was itself a 41% increase relative to 2003 (78
mtCO2e).[104]
In terms of dollars, the World Bank has estimated that the size of the carbon market was 11 billion USD in 2005, 30
billion USD in 2006,[103] and 64 billion in 2007.[105]
The Marrakesh Accords of the Kyoto protocol defined the international trading mechanisms and registries needed to
support trading between countries, with allowance trading now occurring between European countries and Asian
countries. However, while the USA as a nation did not ratify the Protocol, many of its states are now developing
cap-and-trade systems and are looking at ways to link their emissions trading systems together, nationally and
internationally, to seek out the lowest costs and improve liquidity of the market.[106] However, these states also wish
to preserve their individual integrity and unique features. For example, in contrast to the other Kyoto-compliant
Emissions trading 469

systems, some states propose other types of greenhouse gas sources, different measurement methods, setting a
maximum on the price of allowances, or restricting access to CDM projects. Creating instruments that are not truly
fungible would introduce instability and make pricing difficult. Various proposals are being investigated to see how
these systems might be linked across markets, with the International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP) as an
international body to help co-ordinate this.[106] [107]

Business reaction
With the creation of a market for mandatory trading of carbon dioxide emissions within the Kyoto Protocol, the
London financial marketplace has established itself as the center of the carbon finance market, and is expected to
have grown into a market valued at $60 billion in 2007.[108] The voluntary offset market, by comparison, is projected
to grow to about $4bn by 2010.[109]
23 multinational corporations came together in the G8 Climate Change Roundtable, a business group formed at the
January 2005 World Economic Forum. The group included Ford, Toyota, British Airways, BP and Unilever. On
June 9, 2005 the Group published a statement stating that there was a need to act on climate change and stressing the
importance of market-based solutions. It called on governments to establish "clear, transparent, and consistent price
signals" through "creation of a long-term policy framework" that would include all major producers of greenhouse
gases.[110] By December 2007 this had grown to encompass 150 global businesses.[111]
Business in the UK have come out strongly in support of emissions trading as a key tool to mitigate climate change,
supported by NGOs.[112] However, not all businesses favor a trading approach. On December 11, 2008, Rex
Tillerson, the CEO of Exxonmobil, said a carbon tax is "a more direct, more transparent and more effective
approach" than a cap-and-trade program, which he said, "inevitably introduces unnecessary cost and complexity". He
also said that he hoped that the revenues from a carbon tax would be used to lower other taxes so as to be revenue
neutral.[113]
The International Air Transport Association, whose 230 member airlines comprise 93% of all international traffic,
position is that trading should be based on “benchmarking,” setting emissions levels based on industry averages,
rather than “grandfathering,” which would use individual companies’ previous emissions levels to set their future
permit allowances. They argue grandfathering “would penalise airlines that took early action to modernise their
fleets, while a benchmarking approach, if designed properly, would reward more efficient operations".[114]

Measuring, reporting, verification (MRV)


An emissions trading system requires measurements at the level of operator or installation. These measurements are
then reported to a regulator. For greenhouse gases all trading countries maintain an inventory of emissions at
national and installation level; in addition, the trading groups within North America maintain inventories at the state
level through The Climate Registry. For trading between regions these inventories must be consistent, with
equivalent units and measurement techniques.
In some industrial processes emissions can be physically measured by inserting sensors and flowmeters in chimneys
and stacks, but many types of activity rely on theoretical calculations for measurement. Depending on local
legislation, these measurements may require additional checks and verification by government or third party
auditors, prior or post submission to the local regulator.
Emissions trading 470

Enforcement
Another significant, yet troublesome aspect is enforcement.[115] Without effective MRV and enforcement the value
of allowances is diminished. Enforcement can be done using several means, including fines or sanctioning those that
have exceeded their allowances. Concerns include the cost of MRV and enforcement and the risk that facilities may
be tempted to mislead rather than make real reductions or make up their shortfall by purchasing allowances or offsets
from another entity. The net effect of a corrupt reporting system or poorly managed or financed regulator may be a
discount on emission costs, and a (hidden) increase in actual emissions.
According to Nordhaus (2007, p. 27), strict enforcement of the Kyoto Protocol is likely to be observed in those
countries and industries covered by the EU ETS.[116] Ellerman and Buchner (2007, p. 71) commented on the
European Commission's (EC's) role in enforcing scarcity of permits within the EU ETS.[117] This was done by the
EC's reviewing the total number of permits that member states proposed that their industries be allocated. Based on
institutional and enforcement considerations, Kruger et al. (2007, pp. 130–131) suggested that emissions trading
within developing countries might not be a realistic goal in the near-term.[118] Burniaux et al.. (2008, p. 56) argued
that due to the difficulty in enforcing international rules against sovereign states, development of the carbon market
would require negotiation and consensus-building.[119]

Views on emissions trading

Criticisms
Emissions trading has been criticised for a variety of reasons.
In the popular science magazine New Scientist, Lohmann (2006)
argued that trading pollution allowances should be avoided as a climate
change policy. Lohman gave these reasons for this view. First, global
warming will require more radical change than the modest changes
driven by previous pollution trading schemes such as the US SO2
market. Global warming requires "nothing less than a reorganisation of
society and technology that will leave most remaining fossil fuels Chicago Climate Justice activists protesting cap
and trade legislation in front of Chicago Climate
safely underground." Carbon trading schemes have tended to reward
Exchange building in Chicago Loop
the heaviest polluters with 'windfall profits' when they are granted
enough carbon credits to match historic production. Carbon trading
encourages business-as-usual as expensive long-term structural changes will not be made if there is a cheaper source
of carbon credits. Cheap "offset" carbon credits are frequently available from the less developed countries, where
they may be generated by local polluters at the expense of local communities.[120]

Lohmann (2006b) supported conventional regulation, green taxes, and energy policies that are "justice-based" and
"community-driven."[121] According to Carbon Trade Watch (2009), carbon trading has had a "disastrous track
record." The effectiveness of the EU ETS was criticized, and it was argued that the CDM had routinely favoured
"environmentally ineffective and socially unjust projects."[122]
Annie Leonard provided a critical view on carbon emissions trading in her 2009 documentary The Story of Cap and
Trade. This documentary emphasized three factors: unjust financial advantages to major pollutors resulting from free
permits, an ineffectiveness of the system caused by cheating in connection with carbon offsets and a distraction from
the search for other solutions.[123]
Emissions trading 471

Cap-and-Trade versus Other Public Responses to Pollution


""Cap-and-Trade versus Emissions Fees""[124] ""Responsiveness to inflation?"" In the case of inflation,
cap-and-trade is at an advantage over emissions fees because it adjusts to the new prices automatically and no
legislative or regulatory action is needed.
""Responsiveness to cost changes?"" It is difficult to tell which is better between cap-and-trade and emissions fees
therefore it might be a better option to combine the two resulting in the creation of a safety valve price (a price set by
the government at which polluters can purchase additional permits beyond the cap).
""Responsiveness to uncertainty?"" Like with cost changes, in a world of uncertainty, it is not clear as to whether
emissions fees or cap-and-trade systems are more efficient—it basically depends on how fast the marginal social
benefits of reducing pollution fall with the amount of cleanup (e.g. whether inelastic or elastic marginal social
benefit schedule).
""Cap-and-Trade versus Command-and-Control Regulation""[125] Unlike emissions fees and cap-and-trade which
are incentive based regulations, command-and-control regulations take a variety of forms and are much less flexible.
An example of this is a performance standard which sets an emissions goal for each polluter that is fixed and
therefore the burden of reducing pollution cannot be shifted to the firms that can achieve it more cheaply. So, as a
result, performance standards are unlikely to be cost effective like cap-and-trade is.

Offsets
Forest campaigner Jutta Kill (2006) of European environmental group FERN argued that offsets for emission
reductions were no substitute for actual cuts in emissions. Kill stated that "[carbon] in trees is temporary: Trees can
easily release carbon into the atmosphere through fire, disease, climatic changes, natural decay and timber
harvesting."[126]

Supply of permits
Regulatory agencies run the risk of issuing too many emission credits, which can result in a very low price on
emission permits (CCC, 2008, p. 140).[80] This reduces the incentive that permit-liable firms have to cut back their
emissions. On the other hand, issuing too few permits can result in an excessively high permit price (Hepburn, 2006,
p. 239).[127] This is one of the arguments in favour of a hybrid instrument, that has a price-floor, i.e., a minimum
permit price, and a price-ceiling, i.e., a limit on the permit price. A price-ceiling (safety value) does, however,
remove the certainty of a particular quantity limit of emissions (Bashmakov et al.., 2001).[128]

Incentives
Emissions trading can result in perverse incentives. If, for example, polluting firms are given emission permits for
free ("grandfathering"), this may create a reason for them not to cut their emissions. This is because a firm making
large cuts in emissions would then potentially be granted fewer emission permits in the future (IMF, 2008,
pp. 25–26).[129] This perverse incentive can be alleviated if permits are auctioned, i.e., sold to polluters, rather than
giving them the permits for free (Hepburn, 2006, pp. 236–237).[127]
On the other hand, allocating permits can be used as a measure to protect domestic firms who are internationally
exposed to competition (p. 237). This happens when domestic firms compete against other firms that are not subject
to the same regulation. This argument in favour of allocation of permits has been used in the EU ETS, where
industries that have been judged to be internationally exposed, e.g., cement and steel production, have been given
permits for free (4CMR, 2008).[130]
Emissions trading 472

Auctioning
The revenues from auctioning go to the government. These revenues could, for example, be used for research and
development of sustainable technology.[131] Alternatively, revenues could be used to cut distortionary taxes, thus
improving the efficiency of the overall cap policy (Fisher et al.., 1996, p. 417).[132]

Distributional effects
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO, 2009) examined the potential effects of the American Clean Energy and
Security Act on US households.[133] This Act relies heavily on the free allocation of permits. The Bill was found to
protect low-income consumers, but it was recommended that the Bill be changed to be more efficient. It was
suggested that the Bill be changed to reduce welfare provisions for corporations, and more resources be made
available for consumer relief.

References
[1] Stavins, Robert N. (November 2001). "Experience with Market-Based Environmental Policy Instruments" (http:/ / www. rff. org/ documents/
RFF-DP-01-58. pdf). Discussion Paper 01-58 (Washington, D.C.: Resources for the Future). . Retrieved 2010-05-20. "Market-based
instruments are regulations that encourage behavior through market signals rather than through explicit directives regarding pollution control
levels or methods".
[2] Montgomery, W.D. "Markets in Licenses and Efficient Pollution Control Programs". Journal of Economic Theory 5 (December
1972):395-418
[3] EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) (http:/ / www. decc. gov. uk/ en/ content/ cms/ what_we_do/ change_energy/ tackling_clima/
emissions/ eu_ets/ eu_ets. aspx). UK Department of Energy and Climate Change. Retrieved 2009-01-19.
[4] "USEPA's Clean Air Markets web site" (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ airmarkets/ ). US EPA. . Retrieved 2009-11-03.
[5] Rosen and Gayer, Harvey S. and Ted (2008). Public Finance. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. pp. 71-103. ISBN 978-0-07-351128-3.
[6] Cap and Trade 101 (http:/ / www. americanprogress. org/ issues/ 2008/ 01/ capandtrade101. html), Center for American Progress, January 16,
2008.
[7] Sullivan, Arthur, and Steven M. Sheffrin. Economics: Principles in action. Upper Saddle River, NJ, 2003. ISBN 0130630853
[8] Judson Jaffe, Matthew Ranson and Robert N. Stavins (2009). "Linking Tradable Permit Systems: A Key Element of Emerging International
Climate Policy Architecture" (http:/ / www. boalt. org/ elq/ documents/ elq36-4-01-jaffe-2009-1209. pdf). Ecology Law Quarterly 36 (789). .
Retrieved 2010-08-25.
[9] Tietenberg Tom (2003). "The Tradable-Permits Approach to Protecting the Commons: Lessons for Climate Change" (http:/ / oxrep.
oxfordjournals. org/ cgi/ reprint/ 19/ 3/ 400?ijkey=324rjCyD25Jfk& keytype=ref). Oxford Review of Economic Policy 19 (3): 400–419.
doi:10.1093/oxrep/19.3.400. . Retrieved 2010-08-25.
[10] Stavins, Robert N. (November 2001). Experience with Market-Based Environmental Policy Instruments (http:/ / www. rff. org/ documents/
RFF-DP-01-58. pdf). Discussion Paper 01-58. Washington, D.C.: Resources for the Future. . Retrieved 2010-08-25.
[11] Stavins, Robert N (1998). "What Can We Learn from the Grand Policy Experiment? Lessons from SO2 Allowance Trading" (http:/ / www.
jstor. org/ stable/ 2647033). The Journal of Economic Perspectives. 3 (American Economic Association) 12 (3): 69–88. .
[12] Bryner, Gary C. Blue Skies, Green Politics: the Clean Air Act of 1990. Washington D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Inc., 1951.
[13] CantorCO2e (2008-09-09). "CantorCO2e Launches First Internet CER Auction" (http:/ / www. highbeam. com/ doc/ 1G1-184638199.
html). Press release. . Retrieved 2010-01-27.
[14] http:/ / www. carbonplace. eu
[15] Kanter, James (2007-06-20). "Carbon trading: Where greed is green" (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2007/ 06/ 20/ business/ worldbusiness/
20iht-money. 4. 6234700. html?_r=1). The New York Times. . Retrieved 2010-01-27.
[16] Burton, Ellison; Sanjour, William (1967). "An Economic Analysis of the Control of Sulphur Oxides Air Pollution". DHEW Program
Analysis Report No. 1967-69 (Washington, DC: Ernst and Ernst).
[17] Burton, Ellison, and William Sanjour. (1968). A Cost-Effectiveness Study of Particulate and SOx Emission Control in the New York
Metropolitan Area. NTIS: PB-227 121/1. Contract Number: PH-86-68-37. Washington, DC: Ernst and Ernst.
[18] Burton, Ellison, and William Sanjour. (1969). A Cost-Effectiveness Study of Air Pollution Abatement in the Greater Kansas City Area.
NTIS: PB-227 116/1. Washington, DC: Ernst and Ernst.
[19] Burton, Ellison, and William Sanjour. (1969). A Cost-effectiveness Study of Air Pollution Abatement in the National Capital Area. NAPCA
Contract No. PH 86-68-37, NTIS: PB227110. Washington, DC: Ernst and Ernst.
[20] Burton, Ellison, and William Sanjour. (1970). Applications of Cost-effectiveness Analysis to Air Pollution Control. DHEW Contract No.
CPA 22-69-17. Washington, DC: Ernst and Ernst.
[21] Burton, Ellison; Sanjour, William (1969-03). "Multiple Source Analysis of Air Pollution Abatement Strategies" (http:/ / home. comcast. net/
~jurason/ anonftp/ Multiple Source Analysis of Air Pollution Abatement Strategies. pdf). Federal Accountant XVIII: 48–69. .
Emissions trading 473

[22] Burton, E. S.; William (1970). "A Simulation Approach to Air Pollution Abatement Program Planning" (http:/ / home. comcast. net/
~jurason/ anonftp/ A Simulation Approach to Air Pollution Abatement Program Planning. pdf). Socio-Economic Planning Science 4 (1):
147–150. doi:10.1016/0038-0121(70)90036-4. .
[23] Burton, Edward H. III; Sanjour, William (1973). Deininger, Rolf A.. ed. A Survey of Air Pollution Control Models, published in NATO
(http:/ / home. comcast. net/ ~jurason/ anonftp/ A Survey of Air Pollution Control Models. pdf). Models for environmental pollution control.
Ann Arbor: Ann Arbor Science Publishers. .
[24] Burton, Edward H.; Sanjour, William (May 1973). "Solving the Air Pollution Control Puzzle" (http:/ / home. comcast. net/ ~jurason/
anonftp/ Solving the Air Pollution Control Puzzle. pdf). Environmental Science and Technology 7 (5): 412. .
[25] U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, The Economics of Clean Air, Annual Report of the Environmental Protection Agency to the
Congress of the United States in Compliance with Public Law 91-604 the Clean Air Amendments of 1970, February 1972, Washington, D.C.
[26] Voss, Jan-Peter (2007-06). "Innovation processes in governance: the development of emissions trading as a new policy instrument" (http:/ /
www. ingentaconnect. com/ content/ beech/ spp/ 2007/ 00000034/ 00000005/ art00003). Science and Public Policy. 5 (Ingentaconnect) 34 (5):
329–343. doi:10.3152/030234207X228584. . Retrieved 2009-11-03.
[27] Coase, Ronald H. 1960. The Problem of Social Cost. Journal of Law and Economics. 3:1-44.
[28] Crocker, T. D. (1966). The Structuring of Atmospheric Pollution Control Systems. The Economics of Air Pollution. H. Wolozin. New York,
W. W. Norton & Co.: 61-86.
[29] Dales, John H. 1968. Land, Water, and Ownership (http:/ / www. jstor. org/ pss/ 133706). The Canadian Journal of Economics,
1(4):791-804.
[30] Montgomery, W David. 1972. Markets in Licenses and Efficient Pollution Control Programs (http:/ / www. sciencedirect. com/ science/
article/ B6WJ3-4CYGBY2-PD/ 2/ 8497b83217afcb9dd9197f22fb18ac5b), Journal of Economic Theory 5(3):395-418.
[31] Coniff, Richard (Aug. 2009). "The Political History of Cap and Trade" (http:/ / www. smithsonianmag. com/ science-nature/
Presence-of-Mind-Blue-Sky-Thinking. html?c=y& page=3). Smithsonian Magazine. Retrieved 1-13-2011
[32] Tietenberg, Tom; Johnstone, Nick (2004). "ExPost Evaluation of Tradeable Permits: Methodological Issues and Literature Review" (http:/ /
books. google. co. nz/ books?hl=en& lr=& id=I9Q1HHd4UNQC& oi=fnd& pg=PA9& dq="Tietenberg"+ "Ex+ post+ evaluation+ of+
tradeable+ permits:+ methodological+ . . . "+ & ots=DRG5-3jVMr& sig=-KQEL-bOW1YsZy-blPMQlvZ1okY#v=onepage& q=& f=false).
Tradeable Permits: Policy Evaluation, Design And Reform. OECD Publishing. ISBN 9789264015029. .
[33] Chomitz, Kenneth M (1999). "Evaluating Carbon Offsets from Forestry and Energy Projects: How Do They Compare?" (http:/ / papers.
ssrn. com/ sol3/ papers. cfm?abstract_id=630729). Policy Research Working Paper Series. 2357. The World Bank. .
[34] Ramseur, Jonathan L. (April 16, 2010), Estimating Offset Supply in a Cap-and-Trade Program (http:/ / www. nationalaglawcenter. org/
assets/ crs/ RL34705. pdf), Congressional Research Service, p. 1, , retrieved February 15, 2011
[35] Map: Pollution hotspots (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 4083331. stm), BBC map of areas that suffer from intense local
pollution, BBC News, 2004-12-13. Retrieved 2009-10-19.
[36] "Chicago Climate Exchange prices" (http:/ / www. chicagoclimatex. com/ ). Chicagoclimatex.com. 2009-08-04. . Retrieved 2009-11-03.
[37] Weitzman, M. L. (1974-10)). "Prices vs. Quantities". The Review of Economic Studies (The Review of Economic Studies Ltd.) 41 (4):
477–491. doi:10.2307/2296698. JSTOR 2296698.
[38] Philibert, Cédric (2006-10). "Certainty versus ambition economic efficiency in mitigating climate change" (http:/ / www. iea. org/ textbase/
papers/ 2006/ certainty_ambition. pdf). International Energy Agency Working Paper Series (Paris: International Energy Agency/OECD)
LTO/2006/03. . Retrieved 2010-01-24.
[39] Jacoby, D.H.; Ellerman, A.D. (2004-03). "The safety valve and climate policy" (http:/ / dspace. mit. edu/ handle/ 1721. 1/ 3561). Energy
Policy (Sciencedirect.com) 32 (4): 481–49. doi:10.1016/S0301-4215(03)00150-2. . Retrieved 2009-11-03.
[40] World Bank (2010). "World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change" (http:/ / go. worldbank. org/ BKLQ9DSDU0).
The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433. . Retrieved
2010-04-06.
[41] Barker, T. et al. (2007). "11.7.2 Carbon leakage." (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ ch11s11-7-2. html). In B.
Metz et al. Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and
New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2010-04-05.
[42] Goldemberg, J. et al. (1996). J.P. Bruce et al. ed (PDF). Introduction: scope of the assessment. (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ ipccreports/ sar/
wg_III/ ipcc_sar_wg_III_full_report. pdf). Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change. Contribution of
Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This version: Printed by Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. PDF version: IPCC website. doi:10.2277/0521568544.
ISBN 9780521568548. .
[43] Barker, T. et al. (2007). "Executive Summary. In (book chapter): Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective. In (book): Climate Change
2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B.
Metz et al. Eds.)" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ ch11s11-es. html). Print version: Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2010-04-05.
[44] Houser, Trevor; Rob Bradley, Britt Childs Staley, Jake Werksman, Robert Heilmayr (2008). Leveling The Carbon Playing Field:
International Competition and U.S. Climate Policy Design (http:/ / www. wri. org/ publication/ leveling-the-carbon-playing-field). Peterson
Institute for International Economics. .
Emissions trading 474

[45] "Kyoto Protocol" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ kyoto_protocol/ items/ 2830. php). UNFCCC website. . Retrieved 2009-09-16.
[46] "Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, Summary for Policymakers from [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (http:/ / web.
archive. org/ web/ 20070518152103/ http:/ / www. mnp. nl/ ipcc/ docs/ FAR/ Approved+ SPM+ WGIII_0705rev5. pdf)]"] (PDF). Working
Group III, IPCC. 2007-05-04. pp. Item 25, page 33. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. mnp. nl/ ipcc/ docs/ FAR/ Approved SPM
WGIII_0705rev5. pdf) on May 18, 2007. . Retrieved 2007-05-10.
[47] IPCC (2007). "Glossary J-P. In (book section): Annex I. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz et al. Eds.)" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ annex1sglossary-j-p. html). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y.,
U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2010-04-23.
[48] "LULUCF under the Kyoto Protocol" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ methods_and_science/ lulucf/ items/ 4129. php). UNFCCC website. . Retrieved
2010-04-28.
[49] "UNFCCC Countries 1990 to 2012 emissions targets" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ kyoto_protocol/ background/ items/ 3145. php). UNFCCC
website. 2008-05-14. . Retrieved 2009-11-03.
[50] "Emissions Trading" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ kyoto_protocol/ mechanisms/ emissions_trading/ items/ 2731. php). UNFCCC website. . Retrieved
2009-09-16.
[51] Carbon Trust (March 2009). "Global Carbon Mechanisms: Emerging lessons and implications (CTC748)" (http:/ / www. carbontrust. co. uk/
Publications/ pages/ publicationdetail. aspx?id=CTC748& respos=2& q=global+ carbon+ market& o=Rank& od=asc& pn=0& ps=10).
Carbon Trust website. . Retrieved 2010-03-31.
[52] "The Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scheme" (http:/ / greenhousegas. nsw. gov. au/ ). NSW: Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scheme
Administrator. 2010-01-04. . Retrieved 2010-01-16.
[53] Passey, Rob; MacGill, Iain; Outhred, Hugh (2007). "The NSW Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scheme: An analysis of the NGAC Registry for
the 2003, 2004 and 2005 Compliance Periods" (http:/ / www. ceem. unsw. edu. au/ content/ userDocs/ CEEM_DP_070827_000. pdf). CEEM
discussion paper DP_070822. Sydney: The UNSW Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets (CEEM). . Retrieved 2009-11-03.
[54] Farr, Malcolm (2007-06-04). "Howard flying blind on climate" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20071013133557/ http:/ / news. com. au/
heraldsun/ story/ 0,21985,21844556-5005961,00. html). Herald Sun. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. news. com. au/ heraldsun/
story/ 0,21985,21844556-5005961,00. html) on October 13, 2007. . Retrieved 2009-04-03.
[55] "Australian Carbon Trade to Boost Affordable Energy" (http:/ / www. planetark. com/ dailynewsstory. cfm/ newsid/ 48946/ story. htm).
Planet Ark. 2008-06-24. . Retrieved 2009-04-03.
[56] Smith, Peter (2009-05-05). "Rudd delays carbon trading" (http:/ / www. ft. com/ cms/ s/ 0/ 8fe917cc-390c-11de-8cfe-00144feabdc0. html).
The Financial Times. . Retrieved 2009-11-03.
[57] Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (2010-05-05). "Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme" (http:/ / www. climatechange.
gov. au/ en/ media/ whats-new/ cprs-delayed. aspx). Press release. . Retrieved 2010-06-14.
[58] "Garnaut Climate Change Review" (http:/ / www. garnautreview. org. au/ CA25734E0016A131/ WebObj/
GarnautClimateChangeReviewInterimReport-Feb08/ $File/ Garnaut Climate Change Review Interim Report - Feb 08. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved
2009-11-03.
[59] "Garnaut Review" (http:/ / www. garnautreview. org. au/ domino/ Web_Notes/ Garnaut/ garnautweb. nsf). Garnaut Review. . Retrieved
2009-11-03.
[60] "Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Green Paper" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20080822225451/ http:/ / www. greenhouse. gov. au/
greenpaper/ index. html). Greenhouse.gov.au. 2009-10-14. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. greenhouse. gov. au/ greenpaper/ index.
html) on August 22, 2008. . Retrieved 2009-11-03.
[61] Emma Rodgers (2009-12-02). "Senate kills off emissions trade laws" (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ news/ stories/ 2009/ 12/ 02/ 2759595. htm).
Australian Broadcasting Corporation. . Retrieved 2010-07-29.
[62] Parker, David (2008-09-10). "Historic climate change legislation passes" (http:/ / www. beehive. govt. nz/ release/ historic+ climate+
change+ legislation+ passes). New Zealand Government Media Release. . Retrieved 2008-09-10.
[63] "Climate Change Response (Emissions Trading) Amendment Act 2008 No 85" (http:/ / www. legislation. govt. nz/ act/ public/ 2008/ 0085/
latest/ DLM1130932. html). www.legislation.govt.nz. Parliamentary Counsel Office. 2008-09-25. . Retrieved 2010-01-25.
[64] Nick Smith (2009-11-25). "Balanced new law important step on climate change" (http:/ / beehive. govt. nz/ release/ balanced+ new+ law+
important+ step+ climate+ change). New Zealand Government Press Release. . Retrieved 2010-06-14.
[65] MfE (April 2010). New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2008 (http:/ / www. mfe. govt. nz/ publications/ climate/
greenhouse-gas-inventory-2010/ index. html). ME 1009. Ministry for the Environment. ISSN 1179-223X. . Retrieved 2010-05-22
[66] MfE (2010-01-14). "How will the changes impact on forestry?" (http:/ / www. climatechange. govt. nz/ emissions-trading-scheme/
questions-and-answers-amendment-act. html#forestry). Questions and answers about amendments to the New Zealand Emissions Trading
Scheme (ETS). Ministry for the Environment, NZ Government (www.climatechange.govt.nz). . Retrieved 2010-05-16.
[67] MfE (September 2009). "Summary of the proposed changes to the NZ ETS" (http:/ / www. mfe. govt. nz/ publications/ climate/
emissions-trading-bulletin-11/ index. html#summary). Emissions trading bulletin No 11. Ministry for the Environment (MfE), NZ
Government. . Retrieved 2010-05-15.
[68] "New Zealand Units (NZUs)" (http:/ / www. climatechange. govt. nz/ emissions-trading-scheme/ about/ emission-units. html). Climate
change information New Zealand. Ministry for the Environment, NZ Government (www.climatechange.govt.nz). 2010-06-18. . Retrieved
2010-08-13. "In the short term, the Government is unlikely to sell emission units because the Kyoto units allocated to New Zealand will be
Emissions trading 475

needed to support New Zealand’s international obligations, as well as allocation to eligible sectors under the emissions trading scheme."
[69] "Who will get a free allocation of emission units?" (http:/ / www. climatechange. govt. nz/ emissions-trading-scheme/
questions-and-answers-amendment-act. html#allocationwho). Questions and answers about the emissions trading scheme. Ministry for the
Environment, NZ Government (www.climatechange.govt.nz). 2010-01-14. . Retrieved 2010-05-15.
[70] MfE (September 2009). "Agriculture" (http:/ / www. mfe. govt. nz/ publications/ climate/ emissions-trading-bulletin-11/ index.
html#agriculture). Summary of the proposed changes to the NZ ETS - Emissions Trading Bulletin 11. Ministry for the Environment. .
Retrieved 2010-05-16.
[71] MfE (2010-01-14). "How will free allocation of emission units to the industrial sector work now?" (http:/ / www. climatechange. govt. nz/
emissions-trading-scheme/ questions-and-answers-amendment-act. html#freeallocation). Questions and answers about amendments to the
New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). Ministry for the Environment, NZ Government (www.climatechange.govt.nz). . Retrieved
2010-05-16.
[72] Bertram, Geoff; Terry, Simon (2010). The Carbon Challenge: New Zealand’s Emissions Trading Scheme. Bridget Williams Books,
Wellington. ISBN 978-1-877242-46-5. "The New Zealand ETS does not fit this model because there is no cap and therefore no certainty as to
the volume of emissions with which the national economy must operate"
[73] "Climate Change Response Act 2002 No 40 (as at 08 December 2009), Public Act – New Zealand Legislation" (http:/ / www. legislation.
govt. nz/ act/ public/ 2002/ 0040/ latest/ DLM158590. html). NZ Parliamentary Counsel Office/Te Tari Tohutohu Pa-remata. . Retrieved
2010-05-14.
[74] Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment (2009-10-15). "New bill ‘weakens ETS’ says Environment Commissioner" (http:/ / www.
scoop. co. nz/ stories/ PO0910/ S00231. htm). Press release. . Retrieved 2009-10-15. "The allocation of free carbon credits to industrial
processes is extremely generous and removes the carbon price signal where New Zealand needs one the most"
[75] Greenpeace New Zealand (2009-09-14). "Revised ETS an insult to New Zealanders" (http:/ / www. scoop. co. nz/ stories/ PO0909/ S00153.
htm). Press release. . Retrieved 2009-10-12. "We now have on the table a pathetic ETS which won’t actually do anything to reduce emissions"
[76] Jones, B. et al. (October 2007). "Appendix 1.2 Climate Change: Economic Impact and Policy Responses." (http:/ / www. imf. org/ external/
pubs/ ft/ weo/ 2007/ 02/ ). Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policy Issues. World Economic and Financial Surveys, World Economic Outlook,
Globalization and Inequality. IMF. . Retrieved 2010-04-26
[77] Climate Change: The European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) (http:/ / www. opencrs. com/ document/ RL33581)
[78] "Britain, California to join forces on global warming" (http:/ / www. washtimes. com/ business/ 20060731-011601-7934r. htm). The
Washington Times. 2006-07-31. . Retrieved 2009-11-03.
[79] Wagner, M.: Firms, the Framework Convention on Climate Change & the EU Emissions Trading System. Corporate Energy Management
Strategies to Address Climate Change and GHG Emissions in the European Union. Lüneburg: Centre for Sustainability Management 2004,
p.12 (http:/ / www. leuphana. de/ csm/ content/ nama/ downloads/ download_publikationen/ 47-4downloadversion. pdf) CSM Lüneburg
[80] CCC (December 2008). "Chapter 4: Carbon markets and carbon prices. In: Building a low-carbon economy – The UK’s contribution to
tackling climate change. The First Report of the Committee on Climate Change. December 2008" (http:/ / www. theccc. org. uk/ reports/
building-a-low-carbon-economy). Print version: The Stationary Office (http:/ / www. tsobookshop. co. uk). This version: CCC website. .
Retrieved 2010-04-26.
[81] Grubb, M. et al. (3 August 2009). "Climate Policy and Industrial Competitiveness: Ten Insights from Europe on the EU Emissions Trading
System" (http:/ / www. climatestrategies. org/ our-reports/ category/ 17/ 204. html). Climate Strategies. . Retrieved 2010-04-14.
[82] IEA (2007). "European Commission Environment - EU action against climate change" (http:/ / ec. europa. eu/ environment/ climat/ pdf/
bali/ eu_action. pdf). European Commission Environment. pp. 24. . Retrieved 2010-08-01.
[83] Norwegian Ministry of the Environment (2007). "The Norwegian Government accepts to include the EU Emissions Trading Directive in the
EEA agreement" (http:/ / www. regjeringen. no/ en/ dep/ md/ press-centre/ Press-releases/ 2006/
Norway-accept-EU-Emissions-Trading-Directive. html?id=419857). European Commission Environment. pp. 24. . Retrieved 2010-08-03.
[84] Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2010). "Economic Survey of Norway 2010: Sustainable development: climate
change and fisheries policiesEconomic Survey of Norway 2010: Sustainable development: climate change and fisheries policies" (http:/ /
www. oecd. org/ document/ 11/ 0,3343,en_33873108_33873681_44706955_1_1_1_1,00. htmlhttp:/ / www. oecd. org/ document/ 11/
0,3343,en_33873108_33873681_44706955_1_1_1_1,00. html). Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. pp. n/a. .
Retrieved 2010-08-03.
[85] "Tokyo Metropolitan Government Leads Japan, Launches Own GHG Emissions Cap-and-Trade Program" (http:/ / artcraftjapan. wordpress.
com/ 2010/ 07/ 16/ tokyo-metropolitan-government-leads-japan-launches-own-ghg-emissions-cap-and-trade-program/ ). Artcraft Japan For
your Japanese Heart and Soul. 2010-07-16. . Retrieved 2010-08-05.
[86] "Tokyo emissions trading plan may become a model for others" (http:/ / www. wbcsd. org/ plugins/ DocSearch/ details. asp?type=DocDet&
ObjectId=Mzc0MzU). World Council for Sustainable Development. 2010-02-111. . Retrieved 2010-08-12.
[87] Tokyo Metropolitan Government Leads Japan, Launches Own GHG Emissions Cap-and-Trade Program (http:/ / artcraftjapan. wordpress.
com/ 2010/ 07/ 16/ tokyo-metropolitan-government-leads-japan-launches-own-ghg-emissions-cap-and-trade-program/ ), Artcraft Japan For
your Japanese Heart and Soul, July 16, 2010.
[88] Business Green (2010-04-08). "Tokyo kicks off carbon trading scheme" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2010/ apr/ 08/
tokyo-carbon-trading-scheme). The Guardian. . Retrieved 2010-12-29.
[89] Acid Rain Program 2007 Progress Report (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ airmarkt/ progress/ arp07. html), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
January 2009.
Emissions trading 476

[90] Carlson, Curtis, Dallas Burtraw, Maureen Cropper, and Karen L. Palmer. 2000. “Sulfur dioxide control by electric utilities: What are the
gains from trade?” Journal of Political Economy 108: 1292-1326.
[91] "Emissions Reduction Market System What Is ERMS?" (http:/ / www. epa. state. il. us/ air/ erms/ ). Illinois EPA. 2007. .
[92] Memorandum of Understanding (http:/ / www. rggi. org/ docs/ mou_12_20_05. pdf) - Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
[93] Beyond the Kyoto six (http:/ / www. carbon-financeonline. com/ index. cfm?section=features& id=11092& action=view& return=home)
Carbon Finance 7 March 2008
[94] (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ airmarkets/ progsregs/ nox/ sip. html), Environmental Protection Agency, August 13, 2010
[95] Barringer, Felicity (4 February 2011). "California Law to Curb Greenhouse Gases Faces a Legal Hurdle" (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2011/
02/ 05/ science/ earth/ 05emit. html). The New York Times. . Retrieved 9 February 2011.
[96] Buchanan, Wyatt (4 February 2011). "Calif. cap-trade plan dealt blow by S.F. judge" (http:/ / articles. sfgate. com/ 2011-02-04/ news/
27100791_1_air-board-ab32-emissions-plan). San Francisco Chronicle. . Retrieved 9 February 2011.
[97] (http:/ / www. westernclimateinitiative. org/ index. php) Western Climate Initiative}
[98] California, New Mexico and 3 Canadian provinces outline regional cap-and-trade program (http:/ / articles. latimes. com/ 2010/ jul/ 28/
local/ la-me-climate-pact-20100728), Los Angeles Times, July 28, 2010
[99] Barack Obama (2008-11-17). "A New Chapter on Climate Change" (http:/ / it. youtube. com/ watch?v=hvG2XptIEJk). YouTube. .
Retrieved 2009-04-03.
[100] "President's Budget Draws Clean Energy Funds from Climate Measure" (http:/ / www. renewableenergyworld. com/ rea/ news/ article/
2009/ 03/ presidents-budget-draws-clean-energy-funds-from-climate-measure?cmpid=WNL-Friday-March6-2009). Renewable Energy World.
. Retrieved 2009-04-03.
[101] "The American Clean Energy and Security Act (H.R. 2454)" (http:/ / energycommerce. house. gov/ index. php?option=com_content&
view=article& id=1633& catid=155& Itemid=55). Energycommerce.house.gov. 2009-06-01. . Retrieved 2010-06-14.
[102] Reuters (2010-11-03). "Republican wins to hurt Obama's clean-energy plans" (http:/ / news. cnet. com/ 8301-11128_3-20021609-54. html).
Green Tech CNET News. . Retrieved 2011-01-14.
[103] "Carbon Finance" (http:/ / carbonfinance. org/ docs/ StateoftheCarbonMarket2006. pdf). Carbon Finance. 2009-01-15. . Retrieved
2009-04-03.
[104] "Microsoft Word — Carbon Market Study 2005 - FINAL — Letter.doc" (http:/ / carbonfinance. org/ docs/ CarbonMarketStudy2005. pdf).
Carbonfinance.org. 2009-01-15. . Retrieved 2009-04-03.
[105] "Carbon Finance" (http:/ / carbonfinance. org/ docs/ State___Trends--formatted_06_May_10pm. pdf). Carbon Finance. 2009-01-15. .
Retrieved 2009-04-03.
[106] Stavins, Robert N.; Jaffe, Judson (2008). Linkage of Tradable Permit Systems in International Climate Policy Architecture (http:/ /
belfercenter. ksg. harvard. edu/ publication/ 18580/ ). Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements. .
[107] International Carbon Action Partnership (http:/ / www. icapcarbonaction. com/ ) ICAP website
[108] "Point Carbon news" (http:/ / www. pointcarbon. com). Pointcarbon.com. . Retrieved 2009-11-03.
[109] The carbon market (http:/ / www. ft. com/ cms/ s/ 2/
282b278c-f4db-11db-b748-000b5df10621,dwp_uuid=3c093daa-edc1-11db-8584-000b5df10621. html) Fiona Harvey, FT April 27, 2007
[110] http:/ / www. weforum. org/ pdf/ g8_climatechange. pdf
[111] List of climate leaders (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ climateleaders/ partners/ ) EPA December 12
[112] "Appendix C: UK Position on the EU Emissions Trading Scheme" (http:/ / www. berr. gov. uk/ files/ file39578. pdf) (PDF). Meeting the
Energy Challenge A White Paper on Energy May 2007. UK Department of Trade and Industry. . Retrieved 2009-11-03.
[113] "Exxon supports carbon tax" (http:/ / www. canada. com/ calgaryherald/ news/ calgarybusiness/ story.
html?id=e8aecbbb-16c6-412d-8054-7e64e2b176ef). Calgary Herald News. 2009-01-09. .
[114] "What You Need to Know About Emissions Trading" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070303092647/ http:/ / www. iata. org/ NR/
rdonlyres/ 95D34D98-7906-4A23-8884-1FA561709037/ 53257/ EmissionsTrading. pdf). International Air Transport Association. Archived
from the original (http:/ / www. iata. org/ NR/ rdonlyres/ 95D34D98-7906-4A23-8884-1FA561709037/ 53257/ EmissionsTrading. pdf) on
March 3, 2007. . Retrieved 2009-09-26.
[115] Ott, Hermann E. (1998-10-26). "Emissions Trading in the Kyoto Protocol, Finished and Unfinished Business" (http:/ / www. iisd. ca/
journal/ ott. html). Linkages Journal. 4 3. .
[116] Nordhaus, W.D. (2007). "To Tax of Not to Tax: Alternative Approaches to Slowing Global Warming" (http:/ / www. oxfordjournals. org/
our_journals/ reep/ press_releases/ freepdf/ issue1. pdf). Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 1 (1). . Retrieved 2010-04-28.
[117] Ellerman, A.D. and B.K. Buchner (2007). "The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme: Origins, Allocation, and Early Results" (http:/
/ www. oxfordjournals. org/ our_journals/ reep/ press_releases/ freepdf/ issue1. pdf). Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 1 (1). .
Retrieved 2010-04-28.
[118] Kruger, J. et al. (2007). "Decentralization in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and Lessons for Global Policy" (http:/ / www.
oxfordjournals. org/ our_journals/ reep/ press_releases/ freepdf/ issue1. pdf). Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 1 (1). .
Retrieved 2010-04-28.
[119] Burniaux, J-M. et al. (6 June 2009). The Economics of Climate Change Mitigation: How to Build the Necessary Global Action in a
Cost-Effective Manner (http:/ / appli1. oecd. org/ olis/ 2009doc. nsf/ linkto/ eco-wkp(2009)42). Economics Department Working Papers No.
701. OECD website. . Retrieved 2010-04-24.
Emissions trading 477

[120] Lohmann, Larry (2006-12-05). "A licence to carry on polluting?" (http:/ / www. thecornerhouse. org. uk/ resource/ carry-polluting). New
Scientist 2580. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. newscientist. com/ article/ mg19225805. 900-a-licence-to-carry-on-polluting. html)
on 2006-12-05. . Retrieved 2010-07-17.
[121] Lohmann, Larry (2006b). "Ways forward (The Corner House)" (http:/ / www. thecornerhouse. org. uk/ summary. shtml?x=544238). The
Corner House. . Retrieved 2009-04-03.
[122] Carbon Trade Watch (November 2009). "Carbon Trading – How it works and why it fails" (http:/ / www. carbontradewatch. org/
publications/ carbon-trading-how-it-works-and-why-it-fails. html). Dag Hammerskjold Foundation. . Retrieved 2010-08-04.
[123] Annie Leonard (2009). "The Story of Cap and Trade" (http:/ / www. storyofstuff. com/ capandtrade/ capandtrade. php). The Story of Stuff
Project. . Retrieved 2010-10-31.
[124] Rosen and Gayer, Harvey S. and Ted (2008). Public Finance. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. pp. 90-94. ISBN 978-0-07-351128-3.
[125] Rosen and Gayer, Harvey S. and Ted (2008). Public Finance. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. pp. 94-96. ISBN 978-0-07-351128-3.
[126] Kill, J. (July 2006). "10 things you should know about tree 'offsets'" (http:/ / www. newint. org/ features/ 2006/ 07/ 01/ carbon-cycle/ ).
New Internationalist. . Retrieved 2010-04-28.
[127] Hepburn, C. (2006). "Regulating by prices, quantities or both: an update and an overview" (http:/ / www. economics. ox. ac. uk/ members/
cameron. hepburn/ Hepburn (2006, Oxrep) Regulation by P or Q. pdf). Oxford Review of Economic Policy 22 (2): 226–247.
doi:10.1093/oxrep/grj014. . Retrieved August 30, 2009.
[128] Bashmakov, I. et al. (2001). "6.2.2.3 Tradable Permits." (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg3/ 237. htm). In B. Metz et al. 6.
Policies, Measures, and Instruments. Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A..
This version: GRID-Arendal website (http:/ / www. grida. no/ ). . Retrieved 2010-04-26.
[129] IMF (March 2008). "Fiscal Implications of Climate Change" (http:/ / www. imf. org/ external/ np/ pp/ eng/ 2008/ 022208. pdf).
International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Department. . Retrieved 2010-04-26.
[130] 4CMR (19 June 2008). "Memorandum by the Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research. European Union – Minutes of
Evidence, Wednesday 8 October 2008. European Union Committee, Session 2007-2008, Thirty-third Report: The Revision of the EU's
Emissions Trading System" (http:/ / www. publications. parliament. uk/ pa/ ld200708/ ldselect/ ldeucom/ 197/ 8100802. htm). UK Parliament
website. . Retrieved 2010-04-28.
[131] "Climate change; The greening of America" (http:/ / economist. com/ opinion/ displaystory. cfm?story_id=E1_RVJTRQV). The
Economist. 2007-01-25. . Retrieved 2009-04-03.
[132] Fisher, B.S. et al. (1996). "An Economic Assessment of Policy Instruments for Combating Climate Change" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
ipccreports/ sar/ wg_III/ ipcc_sar_wg_III_full_report. pdf). In J.P. Bruce et al. (PDF). Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social
Dimensions of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. PDF version: IPCC website.
doi:10.2277/0521568544. ISBN 9780521568548. .
[133] Stone, Chad; Shaw, Hannah (2009-07-10). "Senate can strengthen climate legislation by reducing corporate welfare and boosting true
consumer relief" (http:/ / www. cbpp. org/ files/ 7-10-09climate. pdf). Centre for Budget and Policy Priorities. . Retrieved 2010-01-27.

Further reading
• Chichilnisky, C.; Heal, G., eds (2000). "Environmental Markets: Equity and Efficiency" (http://www.
chichilnisky.com/publication.php). Print version: Columbia University Press, New York, Chichester, West
Sussex. Web version: Graciela Chichilnisky's website. Retrieved 2010-05-12.
• Gilbertson, T. and O. Reyes (1 November 2009). "Carbon Trading: how it works and why it fails" (http://www.
carbontradewatch.org/publications/carbon-trading-how-it-works-and-why-it-fails.html). Dag Hammerskjold
Foundation. Retrieved 2010-05-14.
• IEA (2005). "Act Locally, Trade Globally- Emissions Trading for Climate Policy" (http://www.iea.org/
publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=1579). International Energy Agency (IEA), Head of Publications
Service, 9 rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France. p. 236. Retrieved 2010-05-12.
• Lin Feng and Jason Buhi (2009). "Emissions Trading Across China: Incorporating Hong Kong and Macau into an
Urgently Needed Air Pollution Control Regime Under 'One Country, Two Systems'" (http://papers.ssrn.com/
sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1441395). Florida State University Journal of Transnational Law & Policy, Vol.
19, 2009. Retrieved 2010-10-17.
• Norregaard, J. and V. Reppelin-Hill (1 January 2000). "Taxes and Tradable Permits as Instruments for
Controlling Pollution: Theory and Practice. Working Paper No. 00/13" (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/
cat/longres.cfm?sk=3411.0). International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Department. Retrieved 2010-05-12.
Emissions trading 478

• Reinaud, J. and C. Philibert (22 November 2007). "Emissions trading: trends and prospects" (http://www.iea.
org/publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=2001). International Energy Agency website. p. 43. Retrieved
2010-05-12.

External links
• Q&A with Dr. Daniel Fine on Cap and Trade legislation and policy (http://www.opednews.com/Diary/
Dr-Daniel-Fine-on-Cap-and-by-Helen-Fine-090617-238.html)
• Dr. Daniel Fine of the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy on Cap and Trade (http://nmcep.nmt.edu/index.
php/NMCEP-and-Related-News/cap-and-trade-changing-everything.html)
• Emissions Trading and CDM (http://www.iea.org/subjectqueries/keyresult.asp?KEYWORD_ID=4124) –
International Energy Agency website
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading (http://www.oecd.org/env/cc/emissiontrading) – Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development website
• US EPA's Acid Rain Program (http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/arp/index.html)
• Illinois Emissions Reduction Market System (http://www.epa.state.il.us/air/erms/)
• Texas Emissions Banking and Trading program (http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/permitting/air/nav/
air_banking.html)
• "The Making of a Market-Minded Environmentalist" (http://www.strategy-business.com/press/article/
08201?pg=0), article by Fred Krupp in Strategy+Business (registration reqd) that articulates some of the
reasoning and history behind emissions trading in California
• International Emissions Trading Association (http://www.ieta.org/)
• EU-ETS for airlines (http://www.aviaso.com/)

Efficient energy use


Efficient energy use, sometimes simply called energy
efficiency, is the goal of efforts to reduce the amount of
energy required to provide products and services. For
example, insulating a home allows a building to use
less heating and cooling energy to achieve and maintain
a comfortable temperature. Installing fluorescent lights
or natural skylights reduces the amount of energy
required to attain the same level of illumination
compared to using traditional incandescent light bulbs.
Compact fluorescent lights use two-thirds less energy
and may last 6 to 10 times longer than incandescent
lights. Improvements in energy efficiency are most
often achieved by adopting a more efficient technology
or production process.[2]

There are various motivations to improve energy


efficiency. Reducing energy use reduces energy costs
and may result in a financial cost saving to consumers
A spiral-type integrated compact fluorescent lamp, which has been
if the energy savings offset any additional costs of popular among North American consumers since its introduction in
[1]
the mid 1990s.
Efficient energy use 479

implementing an energy efficient technology. Reducing energy use is also seen as a key solution to the problem of
reducing greenhouse gas emissions. According to the International Energy Agency, improved energy efficiency in
buildings, industrial processes and transportation could reduce the world's energy needs in 2050 by one third, and
help control global emissions of greenhouse gases.[3]
Energy efficiency and renewable energy are said to be the twin pillars of sustainable energy policy.[4] In many
countries energy efficiency is also seen to have a national security benefit because it can be used to reduce the level
of energy imports from foreign countries and may slow down the rate at which domestic energy resources are
depleted.

Overview
Making homes, vehicles, and businesses more energy efficient is seen as a largely untapped solution to addressing
the problems of pollution, global warming, energy security, and fossil fuel depletion. Many of these ideas have been
discussed for years, since the 1973 oil crisis brought energy issues to the forefront. In the late 1970s, physicist
Amory Lovins popularized the notion of a "soft energy path", with a strong focus on energy efficiency. Among other
things, Lovins popularized the notion of negawatts—the idea of meeting energy needs by increasing efficiency
instead of increasing energy production.
Energy efficiency has proved to be a cost-effective strategy for building economies without necessarily growing
energy consumption. For example, the state of California began implementing energy-efficiency measures in the
mid-1970s, including building code and appliance standards with strict efficiency requirements. During the
following years, California's energy consumption has remained approximately flat on a per capita basis while
national U.S. consumption doubled. As part of its strategy, California implemented a "loading order" for new energy
resources that puts energy efficiency first, renewable electricity supplies second, and new fossil-fired power plants
last.[5]
Lovins' Rocky Mountain Institute points out that in industrial settings, "there are abundant opportunities to save 70%
to 90% of the energy and cost for lighting, fan, and pump systems; 50% for electric motors; and 60% in areas such as
heating, cooling, office equipment, and appliances." In general, up to 75% of the electricity used in the U.S. today
could be saved with efficiency measures that cost less than the electricity itself. The same holds true for
home-owners, leaky ducts have remained an invisible energy culprit for years. In fact, researchers at the US
Department of Energy and their consortium, Residential Energy Efficient Distribution Systems (REEDS) have found
that duct efficiency may be as low as 50-70%. The US Department of Energy has stated that there is potential for
energy saving in the magnitude of 90 Billion kWh by increasing home energy efficiency.[6]
Other studies have emphasized this. A report published in 2006 by the McKinsey Global Institute, asserted that
"there are sufficient economically viable opportunities for energy-productivity improvements that could keep global
energy-demand growth at less than 1 percent per annum"—less than half of the 2.2 percent average growth
anticipated through 2020 in a business-as-usual scenario. Energy productivity, which measures the output and
quality of goods and services per unit of energy input, can come from either reducing the amount of energy required
to produce something, or from increasing the quantity or quality of goods and services from the same amount of
energy.
The Vienna Climate Change Talks 2007 Report, under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC), clearly shows "that energy efficiency can achieve real emission reductions at low
cost."[7]
Efficient energy use 480

Appliances
Modern energy-efficient appliances, such as refrigerators, freezers, ovens,
stoves, dishwashers, and clothes washers and dryers, use significantly less
energy than older appliances. Current energy efficient refrigerators, for
example, use 40 percent less energy than conventional models did in
2001. Following this, if all households in Europe changed their more than
ten year old appliances into new ones, 20 billion kWh of electricity would
be saved annually, hence reducing CO2 emissions by almost 18 billion
kg.[8] In the US, the corresponding figures would be 17 billion kWh of
electricity and 27000000000 lb (1.2×1010 kg) CO2.[9] According to a 2009
study from McKinsey & Company the replacement of old appliances is
one of the most efficient global measures to reduce emissions of
greenhouse gases.[10] Modern power management systems also reduce
energy usage by idle appliances by turning them off or putting them into a
low-energy mode after a certain time. Many countries identify
energy-efficient appliances using energy input labeling.[11]

The impact of energy efficiency on peak demand depends on when the


appliance is used.[12] For example, an air conditioner uses more energy
during the afternoon when it is hot. Therefore, an energy efficient air
conditioner will have a larger impact on peak demand than off-peak
demand. An energy efficient dishwasher, on the other hand, uses more
energy during the late evening when people do their dishes. This
appliance may have little to no impact on peak demand.

Building design
A building’s location and surroundings play a key role in regulating its temperature and illumination. For example,
trees, landscaping, and hills can provide shade and block wind. In cooler climates, designing buildings with a south
facing windows increases the amount of sun (ultimately heat energy) entering the building, minimizing energy use,
by maximizing passive solar heating. Tight building design, including energy-efficient windows, well-sealed doors,
and additional thermal insulation of walls, basement slabs, and foundations can reduce heat loss by 25 to 50
percent.[11]

Dark roofs may become up to 39 C° (70 F°) hotter than the most reflective white surfaces, and they transmit some of
this additional heat inside the building. US Studies have shown that lightly colored roofs use 40 percent less energy
for cooling than buildings with darker roofs. White roof systems save more energy in sunnier climates. Advanced
electronic heating and cooling systems can moderate energy consumption and improve the comfort of people in the
building.[11]
Proper placement of windows and skylights and use of architectural features that reflect light into a building, can
reduce the need for artificial lighting. Increased use of natural and task lighting have been shown by one study to
increase productivity in schools and offices.[11] Compact fluorescent lights use two-thirds less energy and may last 6
to 10 times longer than incandescent light bulbs. Newer fluorescent lights produce a natural light, and in most
applications they are cost effective, despite their higher initial cost, with payback periods as low as a few months.[13]
Effective energy-efficient building design can include the use of low cost Passive Infra Reds (PIRs) to switch-off
lighting when areas are unnoccupied such as toilets, corridors or even office areas out-of-hours. In addition, lux
levels can be monitored using daylight sensors linked to the building's lighting scheme to switch on/off or dim the
Efficient energy use 481

lighting to pre-defined levels to take into account the natural light and thus reduce consumption. Building
Management Systems (BMS) link all of this together in one centralised computer to control the whole building's
lighting and power requirements.[14]
The choice of which space heating or cooling technology to use in buildings can have a significant impact on energy
use and efficiency. For example, replacing an older 50% efficient natural gas furnace with a new 95% one will
dramatically reduce energy use, carbon emissions, and winter natural gas bills. Ground source heat pumps can be
even more energy efficient and cost effective. These systems use pumps and compressors to move refrigerant fluid
around a thermodynamic cycle in order to "pump" heat against its natural flow from hot to cold, for the purpose of
transferring heat into a building from the large thermal reservoir contained within the nearby ground. The end result
is that heat pumps typically use four times less electrical energy to deliver an equivalent amount of heat than a direct
electrical heater does. Another advantage of a ground source heat pump is that it can be reversed in summertime and
operate to cool the air by transferring heat from the building to the ground. The disadvantage of ground source heat
pumps is their high initial capital cost, but this is typically recouped within 5 to 10 years as a result of lower energy
use.
Smart meters are slowly being adopted by the commerial sector to highlight to staff and for internal monitoring
purposes the building's energy usage in a dynamic presentable format. The use of Power Quality Analysers can be
introduced into an existing building to assess usage, harmonic distortion, peaks, swells and interruptions amongst
others to ultimately make the building more energy-efficient. Often such meters communicate by using wireless
sensor networks.[15]
A term relevant for efficient energy use is energy use intensity, which is defined as energy consumption per floor
area.[16]

Industry
Industry uses a large amount of energy to power a diverse range of manufacturing and resource extraction processes.
Many industrial processes require large amounts of heat and mechanical power, most of which is delivered as natural
gas, petroleum fuels and as electricity. In addition some industries generate fuel from waste products that can be
used to provide additional energy.
Because industrial processes are so diverse it is impossible to describe the multitude of possible opportunities for
energy efficiency in industry. Many depend on the specific technologies and processes in use at each industrial
facility. However there are a number of processes and energy services that are widely used in many industries.
Various industries generate steam and electricity for subsequent use within their facilities. When electricity is
generated, the heat that is produced as a by-product can be captured and used for process steam, heating or other
industrial purposes. Conventional electricity generation is about 30 percent efficient, whereas combined heat and
power (also called co-generation) converts up to 90 percent of the fuel into usable energy.[17]
Advanced boilers and furnaces can operate at higher temperatures while burning less fuel. These technologies are
more efficient and produce fewer pollutants.[17]
Over 45 percent of the fuel used by US manufacturers is burnt to make steam. The typical industrial facility can
reduce this energy usage 20 percent (according to the US Department of Energy) by insulating steam and condensate
return lines, stopping steam leakage, and maintaining steam traps.[17]
Electric motors usually run at a constant speed, but a variable speed drive allows the motor’s energy output to match
the required load. This achieves energy savings ranging from 3 to 60 percent, depending on how the motor is used.
Motor coils made of superconducting materials can also reduce energy losses.[17] Motors may also benefit from
voltage optimisation.
Industry uses a large number of pumps and compressors of all shapes and sizes and in a wide variety of applications.
The efficiency of pumps and compressors depends on many factors but often improvements can be made by
Efficient energy use 482

implementing better process control and better maintenance practices. Compressors are commonly used to provide
compressed air which is used for sand blasting, painting, and other power tools. According to the US Department of
Energy, optimizing compressed air systems by installing variable speed drives, along with preventive maintenance to
detect and fix air leaks, can improve energy efficiency 20 to 50 percent.[17]

Vehicles
The estimated energy efficiency for an automobile is 280 Passenger-Mile/106 Btu.[18] There are several ways to
enhance a vehicle's energy efficiency. Using improved aerodynamics to minimize drag can increase vehicle fuel
efficiency. Reducing vehicle weight can also improve fuel economy, which is why composite materials are widely
used in car bodies.
More advanced tires, with decreased tire to road friction and rolling resistance, can save gasoline. Fuel economy can
be improved by up to 3.3% by keeping tires inflated to the correct pressure.[19] Replacing a clogged air filter can
improve a cars fuel consumption by as much as 10 percent on older vehicles.[20] On newer vehicles (1980's and up)
with fuel-injected, computer-controlled engines, a clogged air filter has no effect on mpg but replacing it may
improve acceleration by 6-11 percent.[21]
Energy-efficient vehicles may reach twice the fuel efficiency of the average automobile. Cutting-edge designs, such
as the diesel Mercedes-Benz Bionic concept vehicle have achieved a fuel efficiency as high as 84 miles per US
gallon (2.8 L/100 km; 101 mpg-imp), four times the current conventional automotive average.[20]
The mainstream trend in automotive efficiency is the rise of electric vehicles (all@electric or hybrid electric).
Hybrids, like the Toyota Prius, use regenerative braking to recapture energy that would dissipate in normal cars; the
effect is especially pronounced in city driving. plug-in hybrids also have increased battery capacity, which makes it
possible to drive for limited distances without burning any gasoline; in this case, energy efficiency is dictated by
whatever process (such as coal-burning, hydroelectric, or renewable source) created the power. Plug-ins can
typically drive for around 40 miles (64 km) purely on electricity without recharging; if the battery runs low, a gas
engine kicks in allowing for extended range. Finally, all-electric cars are also growing in popularity; the Tesla
Roadster sports car is the only high-performance all-electric car currently on the market, and others are in
preproduction.[22]

Energy conservation
Energy conservation is broader than energy efficiency in including active efforts to decrease energy consumption, for
example through behavioural change, in addition to using energy more efficiently. Examples of conservation without
efficiency improvements are heating a room less in winter, using the car less, or enabling energy saving modes on a
computer. As with other definitions, the boundary between efficient energy use and energy conservation can be
fuzzy, but both are important in environmental and economic terms.[23] This is especially the case when actions are
directed at the saving of fossil fuels.[24] Energy conservation is a challenge requiring policy programmes,
technological development and behavioral change to go hand in hand. Many energy intermediary organisations, for
example governmental or non-governmental organisations on local, regional, or national level, are working on often
publicly funded programmes or projects to meet this challenge.[25]

Sustainable energy
Energy efficiency and renewable energy are said to be the “twin pillars” of a sustainable energy policy. Both
strategies must be developed concurrently in order to stabilize and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Efficient energy
use is essential to slowing the energy demand growth so that rising clean energy supplies can make deep cuts in
fossil fuel use. If energy use grows too rapidly, renewable energy development will chase a receding target.
Likewise, unless clean energy supplies come online rapidly, slowing demand growth will only begin to reduce total
Efficient energy use 483

carbon emissions; a reduction in the carbon content of energy sources is also needed. A sustainable energy economy
thus requires major commitments to both efficiency and renewables.[26]

Rebound effect
If the demand for energy services remains constant, improving energy efficiency will reduce energy consumption
and carbon emissions. However, many efficiency improvements do not reduce energy consumption by the amount
predicted by simple engineering models. This is because they make energy services cheaper, and so consumption of
those services increases. For example, since fuel efficient vehicles make travel cheaper, consumers may choose to
drive farther and/or faster, thereby offsetting some of the potential energy savings. This is an example of the direct
rebound effect.[27]
Estimates of the size of the rebound effect range from roughly 5% to 40%.[28] [29] [30] The rebound effect is likely to
be less than 30% at the household level and may be closer to 10% for transport.[27] A rebound effect of 30% implies
that improvements in energy efficiency should achieve 70% of the reduction in energy consumption projected using
engineering models.
Since more efficient (and hence cheaper) energy will also lead to faster economic growth, there are suspicions that
improvements in energy efficiency may eventually lead to even faster resource use. This was postulated by
economists in the 1980s and remains a controversial hypothesis. Ecological economists have suggested that any cost
savings from efficiency gains be taxed away by the government in order to avoid this outcome.[31]

Organizations and programs


International
• 80 PLUS
• 2000-watt society
• IEA Solar Heating & Cooling Implementing Agreement Task 13
• International Institute for Energy Conservation
• International Energy Agency (e.g. One watt initiative)
• International Electrotechnical Commission
• International Partnership for Energy Efficiency Cooperation
• World Sustainable Energy Days
Australia
• Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency
• Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts
• Sustainable House Day
European Union
• Building energy rating
• Eco-Design of Energy-Using Products Directive
• Energy efficiency in Europe
• Orgalime, the European engineering industries association
Iceland
• Marorka
India
• 88888 Lights Out
Japan
• Cool Biz campaign
Efficient energy use 484

Lebanon
• The Lebanese Center for Energy Conservation
United Kingdom
• The Carbon Trust
• Energy Saving Trust
• National Energy Action
• National Energy Foundation
United States
• Alliance to Save Energy
• American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE)
• Building Codes Assistance Project
• Building Energy Codes Program
• Energy Star, from United States Environmental Protection Agency
• Industrial Assessment Center
• National Electrical Manufacturers Association
• Rocky Mountain Institute

References
[1] "Philips Tornado Asian Compact Fluorescent" (http:/ / www. lamptech. co. uk/ Spec Sheets/ Philips CFL Tornado. htm). Philips. . Retrieved
2007-12-24.
[2] Diesendorf, Mark (2007). Greenhouse Solutions with Sustainable Energy, UNSW Press, p. 86.
[3] Sophie Hebden (2006-06-22). "Invest in clean technology says IEA report" (http:/ / www. scidev. net/ News/ index.
cfm?fuseaction=readNews& itemid=2929& language=1). Scidev.net. . Retrieved 2010-07-16.
[4] "The Twin Pillars of Sustainable Energy: Synergies between Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technology and Policy" (http:/ / web.
archive. org/ web/ 20080505041521/ http:/ / aceee. org/ store/ proddetail. cfm?CFID=2957330& CFTOKEN=50269931& ItemID=432&
CategoryID=7). Aceee.org. Archived from the original (http:/ / aceee. org/ store/ proddetail. cfm?CFID=2957330& CFTOKEN=50269931&
ItemID=432& CategoryID=7) on 2008-05-05. . Retrieved 2010-07-16.
[5] "Loading Order White Paper" (http:/ / www. energy. ca. gov/ 2005publications/ CEC-400-2005-043/ CEC-400-2005-043. PDF) (PDF). .
Retrieved 2010-07-16.
[6] "Weatherization in Austin, Texas" (http:/ / www. greencollaroperations. com/ weatherization-austin-tx. html). Green Collar Operations. .
Retrieved 2010-07-16.
[7] "Microsoft Word - 20070831_vienna_closing_press_release.doc" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ files/ press/ news_room/ press_releases_and_advisories/
application/ pdf/ 20070831_vienna_closing_press_release. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-07-16.
[8] "Ecosavings" (http:/ / www. electrolux. com/ ecosavings). Electrolux.com. . Retrieved 2010-07-16.
[9] "Ecosavings (Tm) Calculator" (http:/ / www. electrolux. com/ ecosavings_us). Electrolux.com. . Retrieved 2010-07-16.
[10] McKinsey & Company (2009). Pathway to a Low-Carbon Economy : Version 3 of the Global Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curve, p. 7.
[11] Environmental and Energy Study Institute. "Energy-Efficient Buildings: Using whole building design to reduce energy consumption in
homes and offices" (http:/ / www. eesi. org/ publications/ Fact Sheets/ EC_Fact_Sheets/ EE_Buildings. pdf). Eesi.org. . Retrieved 2010-07-16.
[12] "The impact of energy efficiency on peak demand" (http:/ / www. energydsm. com/ energy-efficiency). Energydsm.com. . Retrieved
2010-07-16.
[13] CFL savings calculator (http:/ / www. green-energy-efficient-homes. com/ cfl-savings-calculator. html), Green Energy Efficient Homes
[14] Creating Energy Efficient Offices - Electrical Contractor Fit-out Article
[15] "Wireless smart meter by ecowizard" (http:/ / www. ecowizard. net/ ). Ecowizard.net. . Retrieved 2010-07-16.
[16] www.ashrae.org/members/doc/shapiro_8090903.pdf
[17] Environmental and Energy Study Institute. "Industrial Energy Efficiency: Using new technologies to reduce energy use in industry and
manufacturing" (http:/ / archives. eesi. org/ publications/ Fact Sheets/ EC_Fact_Sheets/ EE_Industry. pdf). Eesi.org. . Retrieved 2010-07-16.
[18] Richard C. Dorf, The Energy Factbook, McGraw-Hill, 1981
[19] "Tips to improve your Gas Mileage" (http:/ / www. fueleconomy. gov/ feg/ maintain. shtml). Fueleconomy.gov. . Retrieved 2010-07-16.
[20] Automotive Efficiency: Using technology to reduce energy use in passenger vehicles and light trucks (http:/ / www. eesi. org/ publications/
Fact Sheets/ EC_Fact_Sheets/ EE_Autos. pdf)
[21] http:/ / www. fueleconomy. gov/ feg/ pdfs/ Air_Filter_Effects_02_26_2009. pdf
[22] "2008 Tesla Roadster - Car News" (http:/ / www. caranddriver. com/ reviews/ hot_lists/ car_shopping/ green_machines/
2008_tesla_roadster_car_news). Car and Driver. . Retrieved 2010-07-16.
Efficient energy use 485

[23] Dietz, T. et al. (2009). Household actions can provide a behavioral wedge to rapidly reduce U.S. carbon emissions (http:/ / www. pnas. org/
content/ 106/ 44/ 18452. full). PNAS. 106(44).
[24] Diesendorf, Mark (2007). Greenhouse Solutions with Sustainable Energy, UNSW Press, p. 87.
[25] Breukers, Heiskanen, et al. (2009). Interaction schemes for successful demand-side management. Deliverable 5 of the CHANGING
BEHAVIOUR (http:/ / www. energychange. info/ index. php) project. Funded by the EC (#213217).
[26] The Twin Pillars of Sustainable Energy: Synergies between Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technology and Policy (http:/ / aceee.
org/ store/ proddetail. cfm?CFID=2957330& CFTOKEN=50269931& ItemID=432& CategoryID=7) (American Council for an
Energy-Efficient Economy)
[27] The Rebound Effect: an assessment of the evidence for economy-wide energy savings from improved energy efficiency (http:/ / www.
ukerc. ac. uk/ Downloads/ PDF/ 07/ 0710ReboundEffect/ 0710ReboundEffectReport. pdf) pp. v-vi.
[28] Greening, L; David L. Greene, Carmen Difiglio (2000). "Energy efficiency and consumption—the rebound effect—a survey.". Energy
Policy 28: 389–401. doi:10.1016/S0301-4215(00)00021-5
[29] Kenneth A. Small and Kurt Van Dender (September 21, 2005). "The Effect of Improved Fuel Economy on Vehicle Miles Traveled:
Estimating the Rebound Effect Using U.S. State Data, 1966-2001" (http:/ / repositories. cdlib. org/ ucei/ policy/ EPE-014). University of
California Energy Institute: Policy & Economics. . Retrieved 2007-11-23.
[30] "Energy Efficiency and the Rebound Effect: Does Increasing Efficiency Decrease Demand?" (http:/ / www. ncseonline. org/ nle/ crsreports/
energy/ eng-80. cfm?& CFID=11262148& CFTOKEN=7028302). . Retrieved 2007-11-21.
[31] Wackernagel, Mathis and William Rees, 1997, "Perpetual and structural barriers to investing in natural capital: economics from an
ecological footprint perspective." Ecological Economics, Vol.20 No.3 p3-24.

Renewable energy
Renewable energy is energy which comes from natural resources such
as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat, which are renewable
(naturally replenished). In 2008, about 19% of global final energy
consumption came from renewables, with 13% coming from traditional
biomass, which is mainly used for heating, and 3.2% from
hydroelectricity.[1] New renewables (small hydro, modern biomass,
wind, solar, geothermal, and biofuels) accounted for another 2.7% and
are growing very rapidly.[1] The share of renewables in electricity
generation is around 18%, with 15% of global electricity coming from
hydroelectricity and 3% from new renewables.[1] [2]

Wind power is growing at the rate of 30% annually, with a worldwide


installed capacity of 158 gigawatts (GW) in 2009,[3] [4] and is widely
used in Europe, Asia, and the United States.[5] At the end of 2009,
cumulative global photovoltaic (PV) installations surpassed 21 GW[6]
[7] [8]
and PV power stations are popular in Germany and Spain.[9]
Burbo Bank Offshore Wind Farm, at the entrance
Solar thermal power stations operate in the USA and Spain, and the
to the River Mersey in North West England.
largest of these is the 354 megawatt (MW) SEGS power plant in the
Mojave Desert.[10] The world's largest geothermal power installation is
The Geysers in California, with a rated capacity of 750 MW. Brazil has one of the largest renewable energy
programs in the world, involving production of ethanol fuel from sugar cane, and ethanol now provides 18% of the
country's automotive fuel.[11] Ethanol fuel is also widely available in the USA.

While many renewable energy projects are large-scale, renewable technologies are also suited to rural and remote
areas, where energy is
Renewable energy 486

often crucial in human development.[12] Globally, an estimated 3


million households get power from small solar PV systems.
Micro-hydro systems configured into village-scale or county-scale
mini-grids serve many areas.[13] More than 30 million rural households
get lighting and cooking from biogas made in household-scale
digesters. Biomass cookstoves are used by 160 million households.[13]

Climate change concerns, coupled with high oil prices, peak oil, and US President Barack Obama speaks at the
increasing government support, are driving increasing renewable DeSoto Next Generation Solar Energy Center, in
energy legislation, incentives and commercialization.[14] New the USA.

government spending, regulation and policies helped the industry


weather the global financial crisis better than many other sectors.[15]

Overview
Renewable energy flows involve natural phenomena such as sunlight,
wind, tides, plant growth, and geothermal heat, as the International
Energy Agency explains:[17]
Renewable energy is derived from natural processes that are
replenished constantly. In its various forms, it derives directly
from the sun, or from heat generated deep within the earth.
Included in the definition is electricity and heat generated from
solar, wind, ocean, hydropower, biomass, geothermal resources,
and biofuels and hydrogen derived from renewable resources.
2008 worldwide renewable-energy sources.
[16]
Renewable energy replaces conventional fuels in four distinct areas: Source: REN21
power generation, hot water/ space heating, transport fuels, and rural
(off-grid) energy services:[18]
• Power generation. Renewable energy provides 18 percent of total electricity generation worldwide. Renewable
power generators are spread across many countries, and wind power alone already provides a significant share of
electricity in some areas: for example, 14 percent in the U.S. state of Iowa, 40 percent in the northern German
state of Schleswig-Holstein, and 20 percent in Denmark. Some countries get most of their power from
renewables, including Iceland and Paraguay (100 percent), Norway (98 percent), Brazil (86 percent), Austria (62
percent), New Zealand (65 percent), and Sweden (54 percent).[19]
• Heating. Solar hot water makes an important contribution in many countries, most notably in China, which now
has 70 percent of the global total (180 GWth). Most of these systems are installed on multi-family apartment
buildings and meet a portion of the hot water needs of an estimated 50–60 million households in China.
Worldwide, total installed solar water heating systems meet a portion of the water heating needs of over 70
million households. The use of biomass for heating continues to grow as well. In Sweden, national use of biomass
energy has surpassed that of oil. Direct geothermal for heating is also growing rapidly.[19]
• Transport fuels. Renewable biofuels have contributed to a significant decline in oil consumption in the United
States since 2006. The 93 billion liters of biofuels produced worldwide in 2009 displaced the equivalent of an
estimated 68 billion liters of gasoline, equal to about 5 percent of world gasoline production.[19]
Renewable energy 487

Mainstream forms of renewable energy

Wind power
Airflows can be used to run wind turbines. Modern wind turbines
range from around 600 kW to 5 MW of rated power, although turbines
with rated output of 1.5–3 MW have become the most common for
commercial use; the power output of a turbine is a function of the cube
of the wind speed, so as wind speed increases, power output increases
dramatically.[20] Areas where winds are stronger and more constant,
such as offshore and high altitude sites, are preferred locations for
wind farms. Typical capacity factors are 20-40%, with values at the
upper end of the range in particularly favourable sites.[21] [22] Wind Turbines located outside of Palm Springs,
California
Globally, the long-term technical potential of wind energy is believed
to be five times total current global energy production, or 40 times current electricity demand. This could require
wind turbines to be installed over large areas, particularly in areas of higher wind resources. Offshore resources
experience mean wind speeds of ~90% greater than that of land, so offshore resources could contribute substantially
more energy.[23]

Hydropower
Energy in water can be harnessed and used. Since water is about 800
times denser than air,[24] [25] even a slow flowing stream of water, or
moderate sea swell, can yield considerable amounts of energy. There
are many forms of water energy:
• Hydroelectric energy is a term usually reserved for large-scale
hydroelectric dams. Examples are the Grand Coulee Dam in
Washington State and the Akosombo Dam in Ghana.
• Micro hydro systems are hydroelectric power installations that
typically produce up to 100 kW of power. They are often used in
water rich areas as a remote-area power supply (RAPS). There are Grand Coulee Dam is a hydroelectric gravity dam
on the Columbia River in the U.S. state of
many of these installations around the world, including several
Washington. The dam supplies four power
delivering around 50 kW in the Solomon Islands. stations with an installed capacity of 6,809 MW
• Run-of-the-river hydroelectricity systems derive kinetic energy and is the largest electric power-producing
facility in the United States.
from rivers and oceans without using a dam.
• Ocean energy describes all the technologies to harness energy from
the ocean and the sea. This includes marine current power, ocean thermal energy conversion, and tidal power.
Renewable energy 488

Solar energy
Solar energy is the energy derived from the sun through the form of
solar radiation. Solar powered electrical generation relies on
photovoltaics and heat engines. A partial list of other solar applications
includes space heating and cooling through solar architecture,
daylighting, solar hot water, solar cooking, and high temperature
process heat for industrial purposes.

Solar technologies are broadly characterized as either passive solar or


active solar depending on the way they capture, convert and distribute
solar energy. Active solar techniques include the use of photovoltaic
panels and solar thermal collectors to harness the energy. Passive solar
techniques include orienting a building to the Sun, selecting materials
with favorable thermal mass or light dispersing properties, and
designing spaces that naturally circulate air.

Biomass
Monocrystalline solar cell.
Biomass (plant material) is a renewable energy source because the
energy it contains comes from the sun. Through the process of photosynthesis, plants capture the sun's energy. When
the plants are burnt, they release the sun's energy they contain. In this way, biomass functions as a sort of natural
battery for storing solar energy. As long as biomass is produced sustainably, with only as much used as is grown, the
battery will last indefinitely.[26]
In general there are two main approaches to using plants for energy production: growing plants specifically for
energy use, and using the residues from plants that are used for other things. The best approaches vary from region to
region according to climate, soils and geography.[26]

Biofuel
Liquid biofuel is usually either bioalcohol such as bioethanol or an oil
such as biodiesel.
Bioethanol is an alcohol made by fermenting the sugar components of
plant materials and it is made mostly from sugar and starch crops. With
advanced technology being developed, cellulosic biomass, such as
trees and grasses, are also used as feedstocks for ethanol production.
Ethanol can be used as a fuel for vehicles in its pure form, but it is
usually used as a gasoline additive to increase octane and improve
vehicle emissions. Bioethanol is widely used in the USA and in Brazil. Information on pump regarding ethanol fuel
blend up to 10%, California.
Biodiesel is made from vegetable oils, animal fats or recycled greases.
Biodiesel can be used as a fuel for vehicles in its pure form, but it is
usually used as a diesel additive to reduce levels of particulates, carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons from
diesel-powered vehicles. Biodiesel is produced from oils or fats using transesterification and is the most common
biofuel in Europe.
Biofuels provided 1.8% of the world's transport fuel in 2008.[27] According to the International Energy Agency,
biofuels have the potential to meet more than a quarter of world demand for transportation fuels by 2050.[28]
Renewable energy 489

Geothermal energy
Geothermal energy is energy obtained by tapping the heat of the earth
itself, both from kilometers deep into the Earth's crust in volcanically
active locations of the globe or from shallow depths, as in geothermal
heat pumps in most locations of the planet. It is expensive to build a
power station but operating costs are low resulting in low energy costs
for suitable sites. Ultimately, this energy derives from heat in the
Earth's core.

Three types of power plants are used to generate power from


geothermal energy: dry steam, flash, and binary. Dry steam plants take Krafla Geothermal Station in northeast Iceland
steam out of fractures in the ground and use it to directly drive a
turbine that spins a generator. Flash plants take hot water, usually at temperatures over 200 °C, out of the ground,
and allows it to boil as it rises to the surface then separates the steam phase in steam/water separators and then runs
the steam through a turbine. In binary plants, the hot water flows through heat exchangers, boiling an organic fluid
that spins the turbine. The condensed steam and remaining geothermal fluid from all three types of plants are
injected back into the hot rock to pick up more heat.
The geothermal energy from the core of the Earth is closer to the surface in some areas than in others. Where hot
underground steam or water can be tapped and brought to the surface it may be used to generate electricity. Such
geothermal power sources exist in certain geologically unstable parts of the world such as Chile, Iceland, New
Zealand, United States, the Philippines and Italy. The two most prominent areas for this in the United States are in
the Yellowstone basin and in northern California. Iceland produced 170 MW geothermal power and heated 86% of
all houses in the year 2000 through geothermal energy. Some 8000 MW of capacity is operational in total.
There is also the potential to generate geothermal energy from hot dry rocks. Holes at least 3 km deep are drilled into
the earth. Some of these holes pump water into the earth, while other holes pump hot water out. The heat resource
consists of hot underground radiogenic granite rocks, which heat up when there is enough sediment between the rock
and the earths surface. Several companies in Australia are exploring this technology.

Renewable energy commercialization

Growth of renewables
During the five-years from the end of 2004 through 2009, worldwide renewable energy capacity grew at rates of
10–60 percent annually for many technologies. For wind power and many other renewable technologies, growth
accelerated in 2009 relative to the previous four years.[18] More wind power capacity was added during 2009 than
any other renewable technology. However, grid-connected PV increased the fastest of all renewables technologies,
with a 60-percent annual average growth rate for the five-year period.[18]
Renewable energy 490

Selected renewable energy indicators[29] [30] [31]


Selected global indicators 2007 2008 2009

Investment in new renewable capacity (annual) 104 130 150 billion USD

Existing renewables power capacity, 1,070 1,140 1,230 GWe


including large-scale hydro

Existing renewables power capacity, 240 280 305 GWe


excluding large hydro

Wind power capacity (existing) 94 121 159 GWe

Solar PV capacity (grid-connected) 7.6 13.5 21 GWe

Solar hot water capacity 126 149 180 GWth

Ethanol production (annual) 50 69 76 billion liters

Biodiesel production (annual) 10 15 17 billion liters

Countries with policy targets for renewable energy use 68 75 85

Scientists have advanced a plan to power 100% of the world's energy with wind, hydroelectric, and solar power by
the year 2030,[32] [33] recommending renewable energy subsidies and a price on carbon reflecting its cost for flood
and related expenses.

Economic trends
All forms of energy are expensive, but as time progresses, renewable energy generally gets cheaper,[34] [35] while
fossil fuels generally get more expensive. Al Gore has explained that renewable energy technologies are declining in
price for three main reasons:[36]
First, once the renewable infrastructure is built, the fuel is free forever. Unlike carbon-based fuels, the
wind and the sun and the earth itself provide fuel that is free, in amounts that are effectively limitless.
Second, while fossil fuel technologies are more mature, renewable energy technologies are being rapidly
improved. So innovation and ingenuity give us the ability to constantly increase the efficiency of
renewable energy and continually reduce its cost.
Third, once the world makes a clear commitment to shifting toward renewable energy, the volume of
production will itself sharply reduce the cost of each windmill and each solar panel, while adding yet
more incentives for additional research and development to further speed up the innovation process.[36]

Wind power market


Global wind power installations increased by 35,800 MW in 2010,
bringing total installed capacity up to 194,400 MW, a 22.5% increase
on the 158,700 MW installed at the end of 2009. For the first time
more than half of all new wind power was added outside of the
traditional markets of Europe and North America, mainly driven, by
the continuing boom in China which accounted for nearly half of all of
the installations at 16,500 MW. China now has 42,300 MW of wind Wind power: worldwide installed capacity
power installed.[37] Wind power accounts for approximately 19% of 1996-2008

electricity generated in Denmark, 9% in Spain and Portugal, and 6% in


Germany and the Republic of Ireland.[38]
Renewable energy 491

Fenton Wind Farm at sunrise

Top 10 wind power countries[39]


Country Total capacity Total capacity
end 2009 (MW) June 2010 (MW)

United States 35,159 36,300

China 26,010 33,800

Germany 25,777 26,400

Spain 19,149 19,500

India 10, 925 12,100

Italy 4,850 5,300

France 4,521 5,000

United Kingdom 4,092 4,600

Portugal 3,535 3,800

Denmark 3,497 3,700

Rest of world 21,698 24,500

Total 159,213 175,000

As of November 2010, the Roscoe Wind Farm (781 MW) is the world's largest wind farm.[40] As of September
2010, the Thanet Offshore Wind Project in United Kingdom is the largest offshore wind farm in the world at 300
MW, followed by Horns Rev II (209 MW) in Denmark. The United Kingdom is the world's leading generator of
offshore wind power, followed by Denmark.[41]

New generation of solar thermal plants


Large solar thermal power stations include the 354 megawatt (MW)
Solar Energy Generating Systems power plant in the USA, Solnova
Solar Power Station (Spain, 150 MW), Andasol solar power station
(Spain, 100 MW), Nevada Solar One (USA, 64 MW), PS20 solar
power tower (Spain, 20 MW), and the PS10 solar power tower (Spain,
11 MW).

The solar thermal power industry is growing rapidly with 1.2 GW


under construction as of April 2009 and another 13.9 GW announced
Solar Towers from left: PS10, PS20.
Renewable energy 492

globally through 2014. Spain is the epicenter of solar thermal power development with 22 projects for 1,037 MW
under construction, all of which are projected to come online by the end of 2010.[42] In the United States, 5,600 MW
of solar thermal power projects have been announced.[43] In developing countries, three World Bank projects for
integrated solar thermal/combined-cycle gas-turbine power plants in Egypt, Mexico, and Morocco have been
approved.[44]

Photovoltaic market
Photovoltaic production has been increasing by an average of some 20
percent each year since 2002, making it a fast-growing energy
technology.[6] [45] At the end of 2009, the cumulative global PV
installations surpassed 21,000 megawatts.[6] [7]
As of November 2010, the largest photovoltaic (PV) power plants in
the world are the Finsterwalde Solar Park (Germany, 80.7 MW), Sarnia
Photovoltaic Power Plant (Canada, 80 MW), Olmedilla Photovoltaic
Park (Spain, 60 MW), the Strasskirchen Solar Park (Germany,
40 MW PV Array installed in Waldpolenz,
54 MW), the Lieberose Photovoltaic Park (Germany, 53 MW), and the Germany
Puertollano Photovoltaic Park (Spain, 50 MW).[46] Many of these
plants are integrated with agriculture and some use innovative tracking systems that follow the sun's daily path
across the sky to generate more electricity than conventional fixed-mounted systems. There are no fuel costs or
emissions during operation of the power stations.

Topaz Solar Farm is a proposed 550 MW solar photovoltaic power plant which is to be built northwest of California
Valley in the USA at a cost of over $1 billion.[47] High Plains Ranch is a proposed 250 MW solar photovoltaic
power plant which is to be built on the Carrizo Plain, northwest of California Valley.[48]
However, when it comes to renewable energy systems and PV, it is not just large systems that matter.
Building-integrated photovoltaics or "onsite" PV systems use existing land and structures and generate power close
to where it is consumed.[49]

Use of ethanol for transportation


Since the 1970s, Brazil has had an ethanol fuel program which has
allowed the country to become the world's second largest producer of
ethanol (after the United States) and the world's largest exporter.[50]
Brazil’s ethanol fuel program uses modern equipment and cheap sugar
cane as feedstock, and the residual cane-waste (bagasse) is used to
process heat and power.[51] There are no longer light vehicles in Brazil
running on pure gasoline. By the end of 2008 there were 35,000 filling
stations throughout Brazil with at least one ethanol pump.[52]
E95 trial bus operating in São Paulo, Brazil.
Nearly all the gasoline sold in the United States today is mixed with 10
percent ethanol, a mix known as E10,[53] and motor vehicle
manufacturers already produce vehicles designed to run on much higher ethanol blends. Ford, DaimlerChrysler, and
GM are among the automobile companies that sell “flexible-fuel” cars, trucks, and minivans that can use gasoline
and ethanol blends ranging from pure gasoline up to 85% ethanol (E85). By mid-2006, there were approximately six
million E85-compatible vehicles on U.S. roads.[54] The challenge is to expand the market for biofuels beyond the
farm states where they have been most popular to date. Flex-fuel vehicles are assisting in this transition because they
allow drivers to choose different fuels based on price and availability. The Energy Policy Act of 2005, which calls for
7.5 billion gallons of biofuels to be used annually by 2012, will also help to expand the market.[54]
Renewable energy 493

Geothermal energy commercialization


The International Geothermal Association (IGA) has reported that
10,715 megawatts (MW) of geothermal power in 24 countries is
online, which is expected to generate 67,246 GWh of electricity in
2010.[55] This represents a 20% increase in geothermal power online
capacity since 2005. IGA projects this will grow to 18,500 MW by
2015, due to the large number of projects presently under
consideration, often in areas previously assumed to have little
exploitable resource.[55]

In 2010, the United States led the world in geothermal electricity


production with 3,086 MW of installed capacity from 77 power
plants;[56] the largest group of geothermal power plants in the world is
located at The Geysers, a geothermal field in California.[57] The
Philippines follows the US as the second highest producer of
geothermal power in the world, with 1,904 MW of capacity online;
geothermal power makes up approximately 18% of the country's
The West Ford Flat power plant is one of 22
electricity generation.[56] power plants at The Geysers.

Geothermal (ground source) heat pumps represented an estimated 30


GWth of installed capacity at the end of 2008, with other direct uses of geothermal heat (i.e., for space heating,
agricultural drying and other uses) reaching an estimated 15 GWth. As of 2008, at least 76 countries use direct
geothermal energy in some form.

Wave farms expansion


Portugal now has the world's first commercial wave farm, the
Agucadoura Wave Park, officially opened in September 2008. The
farm uses three Pelamis P-750 machines generating 2.25 MW.[58] [59]
Initial costs are put at € 8.5 million. A second phase of the project is
now planned to increase the installed capacity to 21MW using a further
25 Pelamis machines.[60]

Funding for a wave farm in Scotland was announced in February, 2007


by the Scottish Government, at a cost of over 4 million pounds, as part
of a UK£13 million funding packages for ocean power in Scotland. One of 3 Pelamis Wave Energy Converters in the
The farm will be the world's largest with a capacity of 3MW generated harbor of Peniche, Portugal
by four Pelamis machines.[61]

Developing country markets


Renewable energy can be particularly suitable for developing countries. In rural and remote areas, transmission and
distribution of energy generated from fossil fuels can be difficult and expensive. Producing renewable energy locally
can offer a viable alternative.[62]
Biomass cookstoves are used by 40 percent of the world’s population. These stoves are being manufactured in
factories and workshops worldwide, and more than 160 million households now use them.[13] More than 30 million
rural households get lighting and cooking from biogas made in household-scale digesters. An estimated 3 million
households get power from small solar PV systems. Micro-hydro systems configured into village-scale or
county-scale mini-grids serve many areas.[13]
Renewable energy 494

Kenya is the world leader in the number of solar power systems installed per capita. More than 30,000 very small
solar panels, each producing 12 to 30 watts, are sold in Kenya annually.[63]
Renewable energy projects in many developing countries have demonstrated that renewable energy can directly
contribute to poverty alleviation by providing the energy needed for creating businesses and employment.
Renewable energy technologies can also make indirect contributions to alleviating poverty by providing energy for
cooking, space heating, and lighting. Renewable energy can also contribute to education, by providing electricity to
schools.[64]

Industry and policy trends


Global revenues for solar photovoltaics, wind power, and biofuels
expanded from $76 billion in 2007 to $115 billion in 2008. New global
investments in clean energy technologies expanded by 4.7 percent
from $148 billion in 2007 to $155 billion in 2008.[15] U.S. President
Barack Obama's American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
includes more than $70 billion in direct spending and tax credits for
clean energy and associated transportation programs. Clean Edge
suggests that the commercialization of clean energy will help countries Global renewable energy investment growth
[65]
(1995-2007)
around the world pull out of the current economic malaise.[15] Leading
renewable energy companies include First Solar, Gamesa, GE Energy,
Q-Cells, Sharp Solar, Siemens, SunOpta, Suntech, and Vestas.[66]

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organization for promoting the
adoption of renewable energy worldwide. It aims to provide concrete policy advice and facilitate capacity building
and technology transfer. IRENA was formed on January 26, 2009, by 75 countries signing the charter of IRENA.[67]
As of March 2010, IRENA has 143 member states who all are considered as founding members, of which 14 have
also ratified the statute.[68]
Renewable energy policy targets exist in some 73 countries around the world, and public policies to promote
renewable energy use have become more common in recent years. At least 64 countries have some type of policy to
promote renewable power generation. Mandates for solar hot water in new construction are becoming more common
at both national and local levels. Mandates for blending biofuels into vehicle fuels have been enacted in 17
countries.[69]

New and emerging renewable energy technologies


New and emerging renewable energy technologies are still under development and include cellulosic ethanol,
hot-dry-rock geothermal power, and ocean energy.[70] These technologies are not yet widely demonstrated or have
limited commercialization. Many are on the horizon and may have potential comparable to other renewable energy
technologies, but still depend on attracting sufficient attention and research, development and demonstration
(RD&D) funding.[70]
Renewable energy 495

Cellulosic ethanol
Companies such as Iogen, Broin, and Abengoa are building refineries that can process biomass and turn it into
ethanol, while companies such as Diversa, Novozymes, and Dyadic are producing enzymes which could enable a
cellulosic ethanol future. The shift from food crop feedstocks to waste residues and native grasses offers significant
opportunities for a range of players, from farmers to biotechnology firms, and from project developers to
investors.[71]

Selected Commercial Cellulosic Ethanol Plants in the U.S.[72] [73]


Company Location Feedstock

Abengoa Bioenergy Hugoton, KS Wheat straw

BlueFire Ethanol Irvine, CA Multiple sources

Gulf Coast Energy Mossy Head, FL Wood waste

Mascoma Lansing, MI Wood

POET LLC Emmetsburg, IA Corn cobs

SunOpta Little Falls, MN Wood chips

Xethanol Auburndale, FL Citrus peels

Ocean energy
Systems to harvest utility-scale electrical power from ocean waves have recently been gaining momentum as a viable
technology. The potential for this technology is considered promising, especially on west-facing coasts with latitudes
between 40 and 60 degrees:[74]
In the United Kingdom, for example, the Carbon Trust recently estimated the extent of the economically
viable offshore resource at 55 TWh per year, about 14% of current national demand. Across Europe, the
technologically achievable resource has been estimated to be at least 280 TWh per year. In 2003, the
U.S. Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) estimated the viable resource in the United States at 255
TWh per year (6% of demand).[74]
The world's first commercial tidal power station was installed in 2007 in the narrows of Strangford Lough in Ireland.
The 1.2 megawatt underwater tidal electricity generator, part of Northern Ireland's Environment & Renewable
Energy Fund scheme, takes advantage of the fast tidal flow (up to 4 metres per second) in the lough. Although the
generator is powerful enough to power a thousand homes, the turbine has minimal environmental impact, as it is
almost entirely submerged, and the rotors pose no danger to wildlife as they turn quite slowly.[75]
Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) uses the temperature difference that exists between deep and shallow
waters to run a heat engine.
Renewable energy 496

Enhanced Geothermal Systems


Enhanced Geothermal Systems are a new type of geothermal power
technologies that do not require natural convective hydrothermal
resources. The vast majority of geothermal energy within drilling reach
is in dry and non-porous rock.[76] EGS technologies "enhance" and/or
create geothermal resources in this "hot dry rock (HDR)" through
hydraulic stimulation.

EGS / HDR technologies, like hydrothermal geothermal, are expected


to be baseload resources which produce power 24 hours a day like a
fossil plant. Distinct from hydrothermal, HDR / EGS may be feasible
anywhere in the world, depending on the economic limits of drill
depth. Good locations are over deep granite covered by a thick
(3–5 km) layer of insulating sediments which slow heat loss.[77]

There are HDR and EGS systems currently being developed and tested
in France, Australia, Japan, Germany, the U.S. and Switzerland. The
largest EGS project in the world is a 25 megawatt demonstration plant
currently being developed in the Cooper Basin, Australia. The Cooper Enhanced geothermal system 1:Reservoir
Basin has the potential to generate 5,000–10,000 MW. 2:Pump house 3:Heat exchanger 4:Turbine hall
5:Production well 6:Injection well 7:Hot water to
district heating 8:Porous sediments
Artificial photosynthesis 9:Observation well 10:Crystalline bedrock

Artificial photosynthesis uses techniques include nanotechnology to


store solar electromagnetic energy in chemical bonds by splitting water to produce hydrogen and then using carbon
dioxide to make methanol.[78]

Renewable energy debate


Renewable electricity production, from sources such as wind power and solar power, is sometimes criticized for
being variable or intermittent. However, the International Energy Agency has stated that deployment of renewable
technologies usually increases the diversity of electricity sources and, through local generation, contributes to the
flexibility of the system and its resistance to central shocks.[79]
There have been "not in my back yard" (NIMBY) concerns relating to the visual and other impacts of some wind
farms, with local residents sometimes fighting or blocking construction.[80] In the USA, the Massachusetts Cape
Wind project was delayed for years partly because of aesthetic concerns. However, residents in other areas have been
more positive and there are many examples of community wind farm developments. According to a town councilor,
the overwhelming majority of locals believe that the Ardrossan Wind Farm in Scotland has enhanced the area.[81]
The market for renewable energy technologies has continued to grow. Climate change concerns, coupled with high
oil prices, peak oil, and increasing government support, are driving increasing renewable energy legislation,
incentives and commercialization.[14] New government spending, regulation and policies helped the industry weather
the 2009 economic crisis better than many other sectors.[15]
Renewable energy 497

References
[1] REN21 (2010). Renewables 2010 Global Status Report (http:/ / www. ren21. net/ Portals/ 97/ documents/ GSR/
REN21_GSR_2010_full_revised Sept2010. pdf) p. 15-16.
[2] REN21 (2008). Global Status Report 2007 (http:/ / www. ren21. net/ pdf/ RE2007_Global_Status_Report. pdf) REN21 Secretariat, 51 pages.
[3] Lars Kroldrup. Gains in Global Wind Capacity Reported (http:/ / greeninc. blogs. nytimes. com/ 2010/ 02/ 15/
gains-in-global-wind-capacity-reported/ ) Green Inc., February 15, 2010.
[4] REN21 (2009). Renewables Global Status Report: 2009 Update (http:/ / www. ren21. net/ pdf/ RE_GSR_2009_update. pdf) p. 9.
[5] Global wind energy markets continue to boom – 2006 another record year (http:/ / www. gwec. net/ uploads/ media/
07-02_PR_Global_Statistics_2006. pdf) (PDF).
[6] James Russell. Record Growth in Photovoltaic Capacity and Momentum Builds for Concentrating Solar Power (http:/ / vitalsigns.
worldwatch. org/ vs-trend/ record-growth-photovoltaic-capacity-and-momentum-builds-concentrating-solar-power) Vital Signs, June 03, 2010.
[7] REN21 (2009). Renewables Global Status Report: 2009 Update (http:/ / www. ren21. net/ pdf/ RE_GSR_2009_update. pdf) p. 12.
[8] REN21 (2009). Renewables Global Status Report: 2009 Update (http:/ / www. ren21. net/ pdf/ RE_GSR_2009_update. pdf) p. 15.
[9] World's largest photovoltaic power plants (http:/ / www. pvresources. com/ en/ top50pv. php)
[10] Solar Trough Power Plants (http:/ / www. osti. gov/ accomplishments/ pdf/ DE00014520/ DE00014520. pdf) (PDF).
[11] America and Brazil Intersect on Ethanol (http:/ / www. renewableenergyaccess. com/ rea/ news/ story?id=44896)
[12] World Energy Assessment (2001). Renewable energy technologies (http:/ / www. undp. org/ energy/ activities/ wea/ drafts-frame. html), p.
221.
[13] REN21 (2010). Renewables 2010 Global Status Report (http:/ / www. ren21. net/ Portals/ 97/ documents/ GSR/
REN21_GSR_2010_full_revised Sept2010. pdf) p. 12.
[14] United Nations Environment Programme Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2007: Analysis of Trends and Issues in the
Financing of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency in OECD and Developing Countries (http:/ / sefi. unep. org/ fileadmin/ media/ sefi/
docs/ publications/ SEFI_Investment_Report_2007. pdf) (PDF), p. 3.
[15] Clean Edge (2009). Clean Energy Trends 2009 (http:/ / www. cleanedge. com/ reports/ pdf/ Trends2009. pdf) pp. 1-4.
[16] Renewables Global Status Report 2009 Update (http:/ / www. ren21. net/ pdf/ RE_GSR_2009_Update. pdf) (PDF).
[17] Renewable energy... into the mainstream (http:/ / www. iea. org/ textbase/ nppdf/ free/ 2000/ Renew_main2003. pdf) p. 9.
[18] REN21 (2010). Renewables 2010 Global Status Report (http:/ / www. ren21. net/ globalstatusreport/ REN21_GSR_2010_full. pdf) p. 15.
[19] REN21 (2010). Renewables 2010 Global Status Report (http:/ / www. ren21. net/ globalstatusreport/ REN21_GSR_2010_full. pdf) p. 53.
[20] EWEA Executive summary "Analysis of Wind Energy in the EU-25" (http:/ / www. ewea. org/ fileadmin/ ewea_documents/ documents/
publications/ WETF/ Facts_Summary. pdf) (PDF). European Wind Energy Association. EWEA Executive summary. Retrieved 2007-03-11.
[21] How Does A Wind Turbine's Energy Production Differ from Its Power Production? (http:/ / www. awea. org/ faq/ basicen. html)
[22] Wind Power: Capacity Factor, Intermittency, and what happens when the wind doesn’t blow? (http:/ / www. ceere. org/ rerl/ about_wind/
RERL_Fact_Sheet_2a_Capacity_Factor. pdf). Retrieved 24 January 2008.
[23] "Offshore stations experience mean wind speeds at 80 m that are 90% greater than over land on average. Evaluation of global wind power
(http:/ / www. stanford. edu/ group/ efmh/ winds/ global_winds. html)
"Overall, the researchers calculated winds at 80 meters [300 feet] traveled over the ocean at approximately 8.6 meters per second and at nearly
4.5 meters per second over land [20 and 10 miles per hour, respectively]." Global Wind Map Shows Best Wind Farm Locations (http:/ / www.
ens-newswire. com/ ens/ may2005/ 2005-05-17-09. asp#anchor6) . Retrieved January 30, 2006.
[24] Richard Shelquist (18 October 2005). "Density Altitude Calculator" (http:/ / wahiduddin. net/ calc/ calc_da_m. htm). . Retrieved
2007-09-17.
[25] "Water Density Calculator" (http:/ / www. csgnetwork. com/ h2odenscalc. html). CSG, Computer Support Group, Inc. and
CSGNetwork.Com. Copyright© 1973–2007. . Retrieved 2007-09-17.
[26] Union of Concerned Scientists. How Biomass Energy Works (http:/ / www. ucsusa. org/ assets/ documents/ clean_energy/
how_biomass_energy_works_factsheet. pdf)
[27] "Towards Sustainable Production and Use of Resources: Assessing Biofuels" (http:/ / www. unep. fr/ scp/ rpanel/ pdf/
Assessing_Biofuels_Full_Report. pdf). United Nations Environment Programme. 2009-10-16. . Retrieved 2009-10-24.
[28] "IEA says biofuels can displace 27% of transportation fuels by 2050 Washington" (http:/ / www. platts. com/ RSSFeedDetailedNews/
RSSFeed/ Oil/ 6017103). Platts. 20 April 2011. .
[29] REN21 (2010). Renewables 2010 Global Status Report (http:/ / www. ren21. net/ globalstatusreport/ REN21_GSR_2010_full. pdf) p. 13.
[30] REN21 (2009). Renewables Global Status Report: 2009 Update (http:/ / www. ren21. net/ pdf/ RE_GSR_2009_update. pdf) p. 9.
[31] Eric Martinot and Janet Sawin. Renewables Global Status Report 2009 Update (http:/ / www. renewableenergyworld. com/ rea/ news/
article/ 2009/ 09/ renewables-global-status-report-2009-update?cmpid=WNL-Friday-September11-2009), Renewable Energy World,
September 9, 2009.
[32] Jacobson, M.Z.; Delucchi, M.A. (2009). "A Plan to Power 100 Percent of the Planet with Renewables" (originally published as "A Path to
Sustainable Energy by 2030")" (http:/ / www. stanford. edu/ group/ efmh/ jacobson/ susenergy2030. html). Scientific American 301 (5):
58–65. PMID 19873905. .
[33] Jacobson, M.Z. (2009) "Review of solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy security" (http:/ / www. stanford. edu/ group/
efmh/ jacobson/ PDF files/ ReviewSolGW09. pdf) Energy and Environmental Science 2:148-73 doi 10.1039/b809990c (http:/ / dx. doi. org/
Renewable energy 498

10. 1039/ b809990c) (review.)


[34] Renewable energy costs drop in '09 (http:/ / www. reuters. com/ article/ GCA-GreenBusiness/ idUSTRE5AM2BE20091123) Reuters,
November 23, 2009.
[35] Solar Power 50% Cheaper By Year End - Analysis Reuters, November 24, 2009.
[36] Al Gore (2009). Our Choice, Bloomsbury, p. 58.
[37] David Beattie (18 March 2011). "Wind Power: China Picks Up Pace" (http:/ / www. renewableenergyworld. com/ rea/ news/ article/ 2011/
03/ wind-power-china-picks-up-paceeu-and-us-fall-but-global-market-grows?cmpid=WindNL-Thursday-March24-2011). Renewable Energy
World. .
[38] New Report a Complete Analysis of the Global Offshore Wind Energy Industry and its Major Players (http:/ / www. pr-inside. com/
new-report-a-complete-analysis-of-r533066. htm)
[39] Wald, Matthew L. (January 11, 2011). "China’s Galloping Wind Market" (http:/ / green. blogs. nytimes. com/ 2011/ 01/ 11/
chinas-galloping-wind-market/ ?partner=rss& emc=rss). The New York Times. .
[40] E.ON wraps up 457 MW wind farm, transfers assets (http:/ / www. cleantech. com/ news/ 4936/ eon-wraps-457mw-wind-farm-transfers)
[41] Blown away (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2009/ jan/ 08/ wind-power)
[42] Global Concentrated Solar Power Industry to Reach 25 GW by 2020 (http:/ / www. renewableenergyworld. com/ rea/ news/ article/ 2009/
05/ global-concentrated-solar-power-industry-to-reach-25-gw-by-2020?cmpid=WNL-Friday-May8-2009)
[43] Solar Thermal Projects Under Review or Announced (http:/ / www. energy. ca. gov/ siting/ solar/ index. html)
[44] REN21 (2008). Renewables 2007 Global Status Report (PDF) (http:/ / www. worldwatch. org/ files/ pdf/ renewables2007. pdf) p. 12.
[45] Solar Expected to Maintain its Status as the World's Fastest-Growing Energy Technology (http:/ / www. socialfunds. com/ news/ article. cgi/
2639. html)
[46] PV Resources.com (2009). World's largest photovoltaic power plants (http:/ / www. pvresources. com/ en/ top50pv. php)
[47] Strickland, Tonya (2008-04-24). "$1 billion-plus Carrisa Plains solar farm could power 190,000 firms" (http:/ / www. sanluisobispo. com/
178/ story/ 341999. html). The San Luis Obispo Tribune. . Retrieved 2008-08-19.
[48] "PG&E Signs Historic 800 MW Photovoltaic Solar Power Agreements With Optisolar and Sunpower" (http:/ / www. pge. com/ about/ news/
mediarelations/ newsreleases/ q3_2008/ 080814. shtml). Pacific Gas & Electric. 2008-08-14. . Retrieved 2008-08-15.
[49] Solar Integrated in New Jersey (http:/ / jcwinnie. biz/ wordpress/ ?p=1724).
[50] "Industry Statistics: Annual World Ethanol Production by Country" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20080408091334/ http:/ / www.
ethanolrfa. org/ industry/ statistics/ #E). Renewable Fuels Association. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. ethanolrfa. org/ industry/
statistics/ #E) on 2008-04-08. . Retrieved 2008-05-02.
[51] Macedo Isaias, M. Lima Verde Leal and J. Azevedo Ramos da Silva (2004). "Assessment of greenhouse gas emissions in the production and
use of fuel ethanol in Brazil" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20080528051443/ http:/ / www. eners. ch/ plateforme/ medias/ macedo_2004.
pdf) (PDF). Secretariat of the Environment, Government of the State of São Paulo. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. eners. ch/
plateforme/ medias/ macedo_2004. pdf) on 2008-05-28. . Retrieved 2008-05-09.
[52] Daniel Budny and Paulo Sotero, editor (2007-04). "Brazil Institute Special Report: The Global Dynamics of Biofuels" (http:/ / www.
wilsoncenter. org/ topics/ pubs/ Brazil_SR_e3. pdf) (PDF). Brazil Institute of the Woodrow Wilson Center. . Retrieved 2008-05-03.
[53] Erica Gies. As Ethanol Booms, Critics Warn of Environmental Effect (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2010/ 06/ 25/ business/
energy-environment/ 25iht-rbogeth. html?src=busln) The New York Times, June 24, 2010.
[54] "American Energy: The Renewable Path to Energy Security" (http:/ / images1. americanprogress. org/ il80web20037/ americanenergynow/
AmericanEnergy. pdf) (PDF). Worldwatch Institute. September 2006. . Retrieved 2007-03-11.
[55] Geothermal Energy Association. Geothermal Energy: International Market Update (http:/ / www. geo-energy. org/ pdf/ reports/
GEA_International_Market_Report_Final_May_2010. pdf) May 2010, p. 4-6.
[56] Geothermal Energy Association. Geothermal Energy: International Market Update (http:/ / www. geo-energy. org/ pdf/ reports/
GEA_International_Market_Report_Final_May_2010. pdf) May 2010, p. 7.
[57] Khan, M. Ali (2007). "The Geysers Geothermal Field, an Injection Success Story" (http:/ / www. gwpc. org/ meetings/ forum/ 2007/
proceedings/ Papers/ Khan, Ali Paper. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-01-25
[58] Sea machine makes waves in Europe (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ scotland/ 4805076. stm)
[59] Wave energy contract goes abroad (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ scotland/ 4563077. stm)
[60] Joao Lima. "Babcock, EDP and Efacec to Collaborate on Wave Energy Projects" (http:/ / www. bloomberg. com/ apps/
news?pid=20601081& sid=aSsaOB9qbiKE& refer=australia). Bloomberg Television. . Retrieved 2008-09-24.
[61] Orkney to get 'biggest' wave farm (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ uk_news/ scotland/ 6377423. stm).
[62] Power for the People (http:/ / www. ausaid. gov. au/ publications/ pdf/ renewable_energy. pdf) p. 3.
[63] The Rise of Renewable Energy (http:/ / rael. berkeley. edu/ files/ 2006/ Kammen-SciAm-Renewables-9-06. pdf)
[64] Energy for Development: The Potential Role of Renewable Energy in Meeting the Millennium Development Goals (http:/ / www.
worldwatch. org/ system/ files/ ren21-1. pdf) pp. 7-9.
[65] REN21 (2008) Renewables 2007 Global Status Report (http:/ / www. ren21. net/ globalstatusreport/ default. asp) (Paris: REN21 Secretariat
and Washington, DC:Worldwatch Institute).
[66] REN21 (2008). Renewables 2007 Global Status Report (PDF) (http:/ / www. worldwatch. org/ files/ pdf/ renewables2007. pdf) p. 18.
[67] http:/ / irena. org/ downloads/ Founconf/ Signatory_States_20090126. pdf
[68] http:/ / irena. org/ downloads/ Foundconf/ Signatory_States_2010. pdf
Renewable energy 499

[69] REN21 (2009). Renewables Global Status Report: 2009 Update (http:/ / www. ren21. net/ pdf/ RE_GSR_2009_update. pdf) p. 8.
[70] International Energy Agency (2007). Renewables in global energy supply: An IEA facts sheet (http:/ / www. iea. org/ textbase/ papers/ 2006/
renewable_factsheet. pdf) (PDF), OECD, p. 3.
[71] Pernick, Ron and Wilder, Clint (2007). The Clean Tech Revolution p. 96.
[72] Decker, Jeff. Going Against the Grain: Ethanol from Lignocellulosics (http:/ / www. renewableenergyworld. com/ rea/ magazine/
story?id=54346), Renewable Energy World, January 22, 2009.
[73] Building Cellulose (http:/ / www. grainnet. com/ pdf/ cellulosemap. pdf)
[74] Jeff Scruggs and Paul Jacob. Harvesting Ocean Wave Energy, Science, Vol. 323, 27 February 2009, p. 1176.
[75] World tidal energy first for NI, BBC News (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ northern_ireland/ 6728073. stm) BBC News, 7 June 2007.
[76] Duchane, Dave; Brown, Don (December 2002). "Hot Dry Rock (HDR) Geothermal Energy Research and Development at Fenton Hill, New
Mexico" (http:/ / geoheat. oit. edu/ bulletin/ bull23-4/ art4. pdf). Geo-Heat Centre Quarterly Bulletin (Klamath Falls, Oregon: Oregon Institute
of Technology) 23 (4): pp. 13–19. ISSN 0276-1084. . Retrieved 2009-05-05
[77] 20 slide presentation inc geothermal maps of Australia (http:/ / www. science. org. au/ events/ conferences-and-workshops/ australiachina/
raham. pdf)
[78] Collings AF and Critchley C (eds). Artificial Photosynthesis- From Basic Biology to Industrial Application Wiley-VCH Weinheim 2005) p
ix.
[79] International Energy Agency (2007). Contribution of Renewables to Energy Security (http:/ / www. iea. org/ textbase/ papers/ 2007/
so_contribution. pdf) IEA Information Paper, p. 5.
[80] http:/ / www. livescience. com/ environment/ 080114-wind-energy. html
[81] Wind farms are not only beautiful, they're absolutely necessary (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ commentisfree/ 2008/ aug/ 12/ windpower.
alternativeenergy)

Bibliography
• Aitken, Donald W. (2010). Transitioning to a Renewable Energy Future, International Solar Energy Society,
January, 54 pages.
• HM Treasury (2006). Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, 575 pages.
• International Council for Science (c2006). Discussion Paper by the Scientific and Technological Community for
the 14th session of the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development, 17 pages.
• International Energy Agency (2006). World Energy Outlook 2006: Summary and Conclusions, OECD, 11 pages.
• International Energy Agency (2007). Renewables in global energy supply: An IEA facts sheet, OECD, 34 pages.
• International Energy Agency (2008). Deploying Renewables: Principles for Effective Policies, OECD, 8 pages.
• Makower, Joel, and Ron Pernick and Clint Wilder (2009). Clean Energy Trends 2009, Clean Edge.
• National Renewable Energy Laboratory (2006). Non-technical Barriers to Solar Energy Use: Review of Recent
Literature, Technical Report, NREL/TP-520-40116, September, 30 pages.
• REN21 (2008). Renewables 2007 Global Status Report, Paris: REN21 Secretariat, 51 pages.
• REN21 (2009). Renewables Global Status Report: 2009 Update, Paris: REN21 Secretariat.
• REN21 (2010). Renewables 2010 Global Status Report, Paris: REN21 Secretariat, 78 pages.
• United Nations Environment Programme and New Energy Finance Ltd. (2007). Global Trends in Sustainable
Energy Investment 2007: Analysis of Trends and Issues in the Financing of Renewable Energy and Energy
Efficiency in OECD and Developing Countries, 52 pages.
• Worldwatch Institute and Center for American Progress (2006). American energy: The renewable path to energy
security, 40 pages.
Nuclear energy 500

Nuclear energy
Nuclear potential energy is the potential energy of the particles inside an atomic nucleus. The nuclear particles are
bound together by the strong nuclear force. Weak nuclear forces provide the potential energy for certain kinds of
radioactive decay, such as beta decay.
Nuclear particles like protons and neutrons are not destroyed in fission and fusion processes, but collections of them
have less mass than if they were individually free, and this mass difference is liberated as heat and radiation in
nuclear reactions (the heat and radiation have the missing mass, but it often escapes from the system, where it is not
measured). The energy from the Sun is an example of this form of energy conversion. In the Sun, the process of
hydrogen fusion converts about 4 million tonnes of solar matter per second into electromagnetic energy, which is
radiated into space.

Carbon capture and storage


Carbon capture and storage (CCS),
alternatively referred to as carbon
capture and sequestration, is a means
of mitigating the contribution of fossil
fuel emissions to global warming. The
process is based on capturing carbon
dioxide (CO2) from large point
sources, such as fossil fuel power
plants, and storing it in such a way that
it does not enter the atmosphere. It can
also be used to describe the scrubbing
of CO2 from ambient air as a
geoengineering technique. Although
CO2 has been injected into geological
formations for various purposes, the
long term storage of CO2 is a relatively
new concept. The first commercial Schematic showing both terrestrial and geological sequestration of carbon dioxide

example was Weyburn in 2000.[1] emissions from a coal-fired plant

An integrated pilot-scale CCS power plant was to begin operating in September 2008 in the eastern German power
plant Schwarze Pumpe run by utility Vattenfall, in the hope of answering questions about technological feasibility
and economic efficiency. CCS applied to a modern conventional power plant could reduce CO2 emissions to the
atmosphere by approximately 80-90% compared to a plant without CCS.[2] The IPCC estimates that the economic
potential of CCS could be between 10% and 55% of the total carbon mitigation effort until year 2100.[2]
Capturing and compressing CO2 requires much energy and would increase the fuel needs of a coal-fired plant with
CCS by 25%-40%.[2] These and other system costs are estimated to increase the cost of energy from a new power
plant with CCS by 21-91%.[2] These estimates apply to purpose-built plants near a storage location; applying the
technology to preexisting plants or plants far from a storage location would be more expensive. Recent industry
reports suggest that with successful research, development and deployment (RD&D), sequestered coal-based
electricity generation in 2025 will cost less than unsequestered coal-based electricity generation today.[3]
Carbon capture and storage 501

Storage of the CO2 is envisaged either in deep geological formations, in deep ocean masses, or in the form of mineral
carbonates. In the case of deep ocean storage, there is a risk of greatly increasing the problem of ocean acidification,
an issue that also stems from the excess of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere and oceans. Geological
formations are currently considered the most promising sequestration sites. The National Energy Technology
Laboratory (NETL) reported that North America has enough storage capacity at its current rate of production for
more than 900 years worth of carbon dioxide.[4] A general problem is that long term predictions about submarine or
underground storage security are very difficult and uncertain, and there is still the risk that CO2 might leak from the
storage into the atmosphere.

Capture
Capturing CO2 might be applied to large point sources, such as large fossil fuel or biomass energy facilities,
industries with major CO2 emissions, natural gas processing, synthetic fuel plants and fossil fuel-based hydrogen
production plants. Air capture is also possible. Air away from the point source also contains oxygen, however, and
so capturing and scrubbing the CO2 from the air, and then storing the CO2, could slow down the oxygen cycle in the
biosphere.[5]
Concentrated CO2 from the combustion of coal in oxygen is relatively pure, and could be directly processed. In other
instances, especially with air capture, a scrubbing process would be needed.
Plants that produce ethanol by fermentation generate cool, essentially pure CO2 that can be pumped underground.[6]
Fermentation produces slightly less CO2 than ethanol by weight. World ethanol production in 2008 is expected to be
about 16 billion gallons or 48 million tonnes.[7]
Broadly, three different types of technologies for scrubbing exist: post-combustion, pre-combustion, and oxyfuel
combustion:
• In post combustion capture, the CO2 is removed after combustion of the fossil fuel — this is the scheme that
would be applied to fossil-fuel burning power plants. Here, carbon dioxide is captured from flue gases at power
stations or other large point sources. The technology is well understood and is currently used in other industrial
applications, although not at the same scale as might be required in a commercial scale power station.
• The technology for pre-combustion is widely applied in fertilizer, chemical, gaseous fuel (H2, CH4), and power
production.[8] In these cases, the fossil fuel is partially oxidized, for instance in a gasifier. The resulting syngas
(CO and H2O) is shifted into CO2 and more H2. The resulting CO2 can be captured from a relatively pure exhaust
stream. The H2 can now be used as fuel; the carbon dioxide is removed before combustion takes place. There are
several advantages and disadvantages when compared to conventional post combustion carbon dioxide capture.[9]
[10]
The CO2 is removed after combustion of fossil fuels, but before the flue gas is expanded to atmospheric
pressure. This scheme is applied to new fossil fuel burning power plants, or to existing plants where re-powering
is an option. The capture before expansion, i.e. from pressurized gas, is standard in almost all industrial CO2
capture processes, at the same scale as will be required for utility power plants.[11] [12]
• In oxy-fuel combustion[13] the fuel is burned in oxygen instead of air. To limit the resulting flame temperatures to
levels common during conventional combustion, cooled flue gas is recirculated and injected into the combustion
chamber. The flue gas consists of mainly carbon dioxide and water vapor, the latter of which is condensed
through cooling. The result is an almost pure carbon dioxide stream that can be transported to the sequestration
site and stored. Power plant processes based on oxyfuel combustion are sometimes referred to as "zero emission"
cycles, because the CO2 stored is not a fraction removed from the flue gas stream (as in the cases of pre- and
post-combustion capture) but the flue gas stream itself. A certain fraction of the CO2 generated during combustion
will inevitably end up in the condensed water. To warrant the label "zero emission" the water would thus have to
be treated or disposed of appropriately. The technique is promising, but the initial air separation step demands a
lot of energy.
Carbon capture and storage 502

An alternate method which is under development, is chemical looping combustion (CLC). Chemical looping uses a
metal oxide as a solid oxygen carrier. Metal oxide particles react with a solid, liquid or gaseous fuel in a fluidized
bed combustor, producing solid metal particles and a mixture of carbon dioxide and water vapor. The water vapor is
condensed, leaving pure carbon dioxide which can then be sequestered. The solid metal particles are circulated to
another fluidized bed where they react with air, producing heat and regenerating metal oxide particles that are
recirculated to the fluidized bed combustor. A variant of chemical looping is calcium looping, which uses the
alternating carbonation and then calcination of a calcium oxide based carrier as a means of capturing CO2.
A few engineering proposals have been made for the more difficult task of capturing CO2 directly from the air, but
work in this area is still in its infancy. Capture costs are estimated to be higher than from point sources, but may be
feasible for dealing with emissions from diffuse sources such as automobiles and aircraft.[14] The theoretically
required energy for air capture is only slightly more than for capture from point sources. The additional costs come
from the devices that use the natural air flow. Global Research Technologies demonstrated a pre-prototype of air
capture technology in 2007.[15]
Removing CO2 from the atmosphere is a form of geoengineering by greenhouse gas remediation. Techniques of this
type have received widespread media coverage as they offer the promise of a comprehensive solution to global
warming if they can be coupled with effective carbon sequestration technologies.
It is more usual to see such techniques proposed for air capture, than for flue gas treatment. Carbon dioxide capture
and storage is more commonly proposed on plants burning coal in oxygen extracted from the air, which means the
CO2 is highly concentrated and no scrubbing process is necessary. According to the Wallula Energy Resource Center
in Washington state, by gasifying coal, it is possible to capture approximately 65% of carbon dioxide embedded in it
and sequester it in a solid form.[16]

Transport
After capture, the CO2 would have to be transported to suitable storage sites. This is done by pipeline, which is
generally the cheapest form of transport. In 2008, there were approximately 5,800 km of CO2 pipelines in the United
States, used to transport CO2 to oil production fields where it is then injected into older fields to extract oil. The
injection of CO2 to produce oil is generally called Enhanced Oil Recovery or EOR. In addition, there are several pilot
programs in various stages to test the long-term storage of CO2 in non-oil producing geologic formations.
According to the Congressional Research Service, "There are important unanswered questions about pipeline
network requirements, economic regulation, utility cost recovery, regulatory classification of CO2 itself, and pipeline
safety. Furthermore, because CO2 pipelines for enhanced oil recovery are already in use today, policy decisions
affecting CO2 pipelines take on an urgency that is unrecognized by many. Federal classification of CO2 as both a
commodity (by the Bureau of Land Management) and as a pollutant (by the Environmental Protection Agency)
could potentially create an immediate conflict which may need to be addressed not only for the sake of future CCS
implementation, but also to ensure consistency of future CCS with CO2 pipeline operations today."[17] [18]
A COA conveyor belt system or ship could also be utilized for transport. These methods are currently used for
transporting CO2 for other applications.
Carbon capture and storage 503

Sequestration
Various forms have been conceived for permanent storage of CO2. These forms include gaseous storage in various
deep geological formations (including saline formations and exhausted gas fields), liquid storage in the ocean, and
solid storage by reaction of CO2 with metal oxides to produce stable carbonates.

Geological storage
Also known as geo-sequestration, this method involves injecting carbon dioxide, generally in supercritical form,
directly into underground geological formations. Oil fields, gas fields, saline formations, unmineable coal seams, and
saline-filled basalt formations have been suggested as storage sites. Various physical (e.g., highly impermeable
caprock) and geochemical trapping mechanisms would prevent the CO2 from escaping to the surface.
CO2 is sometimes injected into declining oil fields to increase oil recovery. Approximately 30 to 50 million metric
tonnes of CO2 are injected annually in the United States into declining oil fields.[19] This option is attractive because
the geology of hydrocarbon reservoirs is generally well understood and storage costs may be partly offset by the sale
of additional oil that is recovered. Disadvantages of old oil fields are their geographic distribution and their limited
capacity, as well as the fact that subsequent burning of the additional oil so recovered will offset much or all of the
reduction in CO2 emissions.
Unmineable coal seams can be used to store CO2 because the CO2 molecules attach to the surface of coal. The
technical feasibility, however, depends on the permeability of the coal bed. In the process of absorption the coal
releases previously absorbed methane, and the methane can be recovered (enhanced coal bed methane recovery). The
sale of the methane can be used to offset a portion of the cost of the CO2 storage. Burning the resultant methane,
however, would produce CO2, which would negate some of the benefit of sequestering the original CO2.
Saline formations contain highly mineralized brines, and have so far been considered of no benefit to humans. Saline
aquifers have been used for storage of chemical waste in a few cases. The main advantage of saline aquifers is their
large potential storage volume and their common occurrence. The major disadvantage of saline aquifers is that
relatively little is known about them, especially compared to oil fields. To keep the cost of storage acceptable, the
geophysical exploration may be limited, resulting in larger uncertainty about the aquifer structure. Unlike storage in
oil fields or coal beds, no side product will offset the storage cost. Leakage of CO2 back into the atmosphere may be
a problem in saline aquifer storage. Current research shows, however, that several trapping mechanisms immobilize
the CO2 underground, reducing the risk of leakage.
For well-selected, designed and managed geological storage sites, the IPCC estimates that CO2 could be trapped for
millions of years, and the sites are likely to retain over 99% of the injected CO2 over 1,000 years. In 2009 it was
reported that scientists had mapped 6000 square miles (16000 km2) of rock formations in the U.S. that could be used
to store 500 years' worth of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions.[20]

Ocean storage
Another proposed form of carbon storage is in the oceans. Several concepts have been proposed:
• 'Dissolution' injects CO2 by ship or pipeline into the ocean water column at depths of 1000 – 3000 m, forming an
upward-plume, and the CO2 subsequently dissolves in seawater.
• Through 'lake' deposits, by injecting CO2 directly into the sea at depths greater than 3000 m, where high-pressure
liquefies CO2, making it denser than water, and forms a downward-plume that may accumulate on the sea floor as
a 'lake', and is expected to delay dissolution of CO2 into the ocean and atmosphere, possibly for millennia.
• Use a chemical reaction to combine CO2 with a carbonate mineral (such as limestone) to form bicarbonate(s), for
example: CO2 + CaCO3 + H2O → Ca(HCO3)2(aq). However, the aqueous bicarbonate solution must not be
allowed to dry out, or else the reaction will reverse.
Carbon capture and storage 504

• Store the CO2 in solid clathrate hydrates already existing on the ocean floor,[21] [22] or growing more solid
clathrate.[23]
The environmental effects of oceanic storage are generally negative, and poorly understood. Large concentrations of
CO2 could kill ocean organisms, but another problem is that dissolved CO2 would eventually equilibrate with the
atmosphere, so the storage would not be permanent. In addition, as part of the CO2 reacts with the water to form
carbonic acid, H2CO3, the acidity of the ocean water increases. The resulting environmental effects on benthic life
forms of the bathypelagic, abyssopelagic and hadopelagic zones are poorly understood. Even though life appears to
be rather sparse in the deep ocean basins, energy and chemical effects in these deep basins could have far reaching
implications. Much more work is needed to define the extent of the potential problems.
The time it takes water in the deeper oceans to circulate to the surface has been estimated to be approximately 1600
years, depending on currents and other changing conditions. Costs for deep ocean disposal of liquid CO2 are
estimated at US$40−80/tonne of CO2 (2002 USD). This figure covers the cost of sequestration at the power plant
and naval transport to the disposal site.[2]
The bicarbonate approach would reduce the pH effects and enhance the retention of CO2 in the ocean, but this would
also increase the costs and other environmental effects.
An additional method of long term ocean based sequestration is to gather crop residue such as corn stalks or excess
hay into large weighted bales of biomass and deposit it in the alluvial fan areas of the deep ocean basin. Dropping
these residues in alluvial fans would cause the residues to be quickly buried in silt on the sea floor, sequestering the
biomass for very long time spans. Alluvial fans exist in all of the world's oceans and seas where river deltas fall off
the edge of the continental shelf, such as the Mississippi alluvial fan in the Gulf of Mexico and the Nile alluvial fan
in the Mediterranean Sea.
Unfortunately, biomass and crop residues form an extremely important and valuable component of topsoil and
sustainable agriculture. Removing them from the terrestrial equation is fraught with problems. If fertilized crops
were used, it would exacerbate nutrient depletion and increase dependence on chemical fertilizers and, therefore,
petrochemicals, thus defeating the original intentions of reducing CO2 in the atmosphere. However it is more likely
that less-expensive cellulosic energy-crops would be used, and these are typically unfertilized; although, it is likely
that petrochemicals would still be used for harvesting and transport.

Mineral storage
In this process, CO2 is exothermically reacted with available metal oxides, which in turn produces stable carbonates.
This process occurs naturally over many years and is responsible for a great amount of surface limestone. The
reaction rate can be made faster, for example by reacting at higher temperatures and/or pressures, or by pre-treatment
of the minerals, although this method can require additional energy. The IPCC estimates that a power plant equipped
with CCS using mineral storage will need 60-180% more energy than a power plant without CCS.[2]
The economics of mineral carbonation at scale are now being tested in a world first pilot plant project based in
Newcastle, Australia. New techniques for mineral activation and reaction have been developed the GreenMag Group
and the University of Newcastle and funded by the New South Wales and Australian Governments to be operational
by 2013.[24]
A study on mineral sequestration in the US states:
Carbon sequestration by reacting naturally occurring Mg and Ca containing minerals with CO2 to form
carbonates has many unique advantages. Most notabl[e] is the fact that carbonates have a lower energy
state than CO2, which is why mineral carbonation is thermodynamically favorable and occurs naturally
(e.g., the weathering of rock over geologic time periods). Secondly, the raw materials such as
magnesium based minerals are abundant. Finally, the produced carbonates are unarguably stable and
thus re-release of CO2 into the atmosphere is not an issue. However, conventional carbonation pathways
Carbon capture and storage 505

are slow under ambient temperatures and pressures. The significant challenge being addressed by this
effort is to identify an industrially and environmentally viable carbonation route that will allow mineral
sequestration to be implemented with acceptable economics.[25]
The following table lists principal metal oxides of Earth's Crust. Theoretically, up to 22% of this mineral mass is able
to form carbonates.

Earthen Oxide Percent of Crust Carbonate Enthalpy


change
(kJ/mol)

SiO2 59.71

Al2O3 15.41

CaO 4.90 CaCO3 -179

MgO 4.36 MgCO3 -117

Na2O 3.55 Na2CO3

FeO 3.52 FeCO3

K2O 2.80 K2CO3

Fe2O3 2.63 FeCO3

21.76 All Carbonates

Leakage
A major concern with CCS is whether leakage of stored CO2 will
compromise CCS as a climate change mitigation option. For
well-selected, designed and managed geological storage sites, IPCC
estimates that risks are comparable to those associated with current
hydrocarbon activity. CO2 could be trapped for millions of years, and
although some leakage occurs upwards through the soil, well selected
storage sites are likely to retain over 99% of the injected CO2 over
1000 years. Leakage through the injection pipe is a greater risk.[26]

Although the injection pipe is usually protected with non-return valves


to prevent release on a power outage, there is still a risk that the pipe
itself could tear and leak due to the pressure. The Berkel and Rodenrijs
incident in December 2008 was an example, where a modest release of
greenhouse gas emissions resulted in the deaths of a small group of
ducks. In order to measure accidental carbon releases more accurately
and decrease the risk of fatalities through this type of leakage, the
implementation of CO2 alert meters around the project perimeter has
been proposed. Cow killed by a 1986 natural carbon dioxide leak
at Lake Nyos. The leakage killed 1,700 people
In 1986 a large leakage of naturally sequestered carbon dioxide rose
and a large number of livestock.
from Lake Nyos in Cameroon and asphyxiated 1,700 people. While the
carbon had been sequestered naturally, some point to the event as
evidence for the potentially catastrophic effects of sequestering carbon artificially.[27] The Lake Nyos disaster
resulted from a volcanic event, which very suddenly released as much as a cubic kilometre of CO2 gas from a pool of
naturally occurring CO2 under the lake in a deep narrow valley. The location of this pool of CO2 is not a place where
man can inject or store CO2, and this pool was not known about nor monitored until after the occurrence of the
Carbon capture and storage 506

natural disaster.
For ocean storage, the retention of CO2 would depend on the depth. The IPCC estimates 30–85% of the sequestered
carbon dioxide would be retained after 500 years for depths 1000–3000 m. Mineral storage is not regarded as having
any risks of leakage. The IPCC recommends that limits be set to the amount of leakage that can take place. This
might rule out deep ocean storage as an option.
It should be noted that at the conditions of the deeper oceans, (about 400 bar or 40 MPa, 280 K) water–CO2(l)
mixing is very low (where carbonate formation/acidification is the rate limiting step), but the formation of water-CO2
hydrates, a kind of solid water cage that surrounds the CO2, is favorable.
To further investigate the safety of CO2 sequestration, Norway's Sleipner gas field can be studied, as it is the oldest
plant that stores CO2 on an industrial scale. According to an environmental assessment of the gas field which was
conducted after ten years of operation, the author affirmed that geosequestration of CO2 was the most definite form
of permanent geological storage of CO2:
Available geological information shows absence of major tectonic events after the deposition of the
Utsira formation [saline reservoir]. This implies that the geological environment is tectonically stable
and a site suitable for carbon dioxide storage. The solubility trapping [is] the most permanent and secure
form of geological storage.[28]
In March 2009 StatoilHydro issued a study showing the slow spread of CO2 in the formation after more than 10
years operation.[29]
Phase I of the Weyburn-Midale Carbon Dioxide Project in Weyburn, Saskatchewan, Canada has determined that the
likelihood of stored CO2 release is less than one percent in 5,000 years.[30] A January 2011 report, however, claimed
evidence of leakage in land above that project.[31] This report was strongly refuted by the IEAGHG Weyburn-Midale
CO2 Monitoring and Storage Project, which issued an eight page analysis of the study, claiming that it showed no
evidence of leakage from the reservoir.[32]
Detailed geological histories of basins are required and should utilize the multi-billion dollar petroleum seismic data
sets to decrease the risk associated with fault stability. On injection of CO2 into the earth, there is a major pressure
front that can break the seal and make faults unstable. The Gippsland Basin in Australia has a 3D-GEO seismic
megavolume that consists of 30+ 3D seismic volumes that have been merged. Such data-sets can image faults at a
resolution of 15 meters over an area 62 miles (100 km) by 62 miles (100 km). By mid 2010 the first full geological
study of the Gippsland Basin will become openfile by 3D-GEO [33], making CCS fault risk workflow available with
the associated data that constrains it. In other basins around the world, such studies are not available and can only be
bought at a price tag of greater than a million dollars.
The liability of potential leak(s) is one of the largest barriers to large-scale CCS.
Carbon capture and storage 507

Carbon dioxide recycling


Recycling CO2 is likely to offer the most environmentally and
financially sustainable response to the global challenge of significantly
reducing greenhouse gas emissions from major stationary (industrial)
emitters in the near to medium term. This is because newly developed
technologies, such as Bio CCS Algal Synthesis, value captured,
pre-smokestack CO2 (such as from a coal fired power station) as a
useful feedstock input to the production of oil-rich algae in solar
membranes to produce oil for plastics and transport fuel (including
aviation fuel), and nutritious stock-feed for farm animal production. Making Jet fuel by scrubbing CO2 from the air
The CO2 and other captured greenhouse gases are injected into the would allow aviation to continue in a low carbon
membranes containing waste water and select strains of algae causing, economy

together with sunlight or UV light, an oil rich biomass that doubles in


mass every 24 hours.

The Bio CCS Algal Synthesis process holds a number of key advantages over conventional CCS in that it is based on
well established earth science photosynthesis: the technology is entirely retrofittable and collocated with the emitter,
and the capital outlays offer a return upon investment due to the high value commodities produced (oil for plastics,
fuel and feed). Carbon cature and storage, on the other hand, represents substantial logistical difficulty, very high
cost without any financial return and extremely limited applicability to the bulk of existing major industrial emitters.
Another advantage of Bio CCS Algal Synthesis is that it offers consumption of the full cocktail of greenhouse gases
normally found in smokestack emissions — not just CO2 as is the case with most CCS proposals.

Bio CCS Algal Synthesis test facilities are being trialed at Australia's three largest coal fired power stations (Tarong,
Queensland; Eraring, NSW; Loy Yang, Victoria) using piped pre-emission smokestack CO2 (and other greenhouse
gases) as feedstock to grow oil-rich algal biomass in enclosed membranes for the production of plastics, transport
fuel and nutritious animal feed.
Another potentially useful way of dealing with industrial sources of CO2 is to convert it into hydrocarbons where it
can be stored or reused as fuel or to make plastics. There are a number of projects investigating this possibility.[34]
Carbon dioxide scrubbing variants exist based on potassium carbonate which can be used to create liquid fuels.[35]
Although the creation of fuel from atmospheric CO2 is not a geoengineering technique, nor does it actually function
as greenhouse gas remediation, it nevertheless is potentially very useful in the creation of a low carbon economy, as
transport fuels, especially aviation fuel, are currently hard to make other than by using fossil fuels. While electric car
technology is widely available, and can be used with renewable energy for carbon neutral driving, there are no
electric jet airliners available, nor are there likely to be in the foreseeable future. The electric aircraft built to date
have been mostly demonstration aircraft with modest performance reflecting the low specific energy of available
storage batteries. For more on the energy requirements of flight including discussion of the critical factor of the
specific energy of aircraft fuel see David J.C. MacKay's appendix C.[36]
Carbon capture and storage 508

Single step methods: methanol


A proven process to produce a hydrocarbon is to make methanol. Methanol is rather easily synthesized from CO2
and H2 (See Green Methanol Synthesis). Based on this fact the idea of a methanol economy was born.

Single step methods: hydrocarbons


At the department of Industrial Chemistry and Engineering of Materials at the University of Messina, Italy, there is a
project to develop a system which works like a fuel-cell in reverse, whereby a catalyst is used that enables sunlight to
split water into hydrogen ions and oxygen gas. The ions cross a membrane where they react with the CO2 to create
hydrocarbons.[37]

Two step methods


If CO2 is heated to 2400°C, it splits into carbon monoxide (CO) and oxygen. The Fischer-Tropsch process can then
be used to convert the CO into hydrocarbons. The required temperature can be achieved by using a chamber
containing a mirror to focus sunlight on the gas. Rival teams are developing such chambers, at Solarec and at Sandia
National Laboratories, both based in New Mexico. According to Sandia these chambers could provide enough fuel to
power 100% of domestic vehicles using 5800 km²; unlike biofuels this would not take fertile land away from crops
but would be land that is not being used for anything else. James May, the British TV presenter, visited a
demonstration plant in a programe in his 'Big Ideas' series.

Example CCS projects

Industrial-scale storage
As of 2007, four industrial-scale storage projects are in operation. Sleipner is the oldest project, having started in
1996, and is located in the North Sea where Norway's Statoil strips carbon dioxide from natural gas with amine
solvents.The reclaimed CO2 is then disposed of in a deep saline aquifer.[38] The carbon dioxide is a waste product of
the field's natural gas production; the gas contains 9% more CO2 than is allowed into the natural gas distribution
network. Storing it underground avoids this problem and saves Statoil hundreds of millions of euro in avoided
carbon taxes. Since 1996, Sleipner has stored about one million tonnes of CO2 a year. A second project in the
Snøhvit gas field, located in the Barents Sea, stores 700,000 tonnes per year.[39]
The Weyburn-Midale CO2 Project is currently the world's largest carbon capture and storage project.[39] Started in
2000, Weyburn-Midale is located on an oil reservoir discovered in 1954 in southeastern Saskatchewan, Canada. The
CO2 for this project is captured at Dakota Gasification Company's Great Plains Synfuels Plant in Beulah, North
Dakota,[40] [41] which has produced methane from coal for more than 30 years. A subsidiary of Basin Electric Power
Cooperative, Dakota Gasification Company captures roughly 50 percent of the CO2 produced by the Synfuels
Plant.[40] At Weyburn, the CO2 is used for enhanced oil recovery with an injection rate of about 1.5 million tonnes
per year. The first phase finished in 2004, and demonstrated that CO2 can be stored underground at the site safely
and indefinitely. The second phase, expected to last until 2009, is investigating how the technology can be expanded
on a larger scale.[42]
The fourth site is In Salah, which, like Sleipner and Snøhvit, is a natural gas reservoir located in In Salah, Algeria.
The CO2 is separated from the natural gas and re-injected into the subsurface at a rate of about 1.2 million tonnes per
year.[43]
Carbon capture and storage 509

Canada
Canada has invested approximately $3.4 billion in Carbon Capture and Storage development. This includes Alberta’s
$2 billion announced in July 2008, and a combined total of $1.4 billion from the federal government’s 2008 and 2009
budgets.[44] In July 2008, the Government of Alberta announced a $2 billion investment in four large-scale carbon
capture and storage projects.[45] In 2009, letters of intent were signed with four project proponents and grant
agreement negotiations are ongoing. It is expected the grant agreements will be signed in 2010. These proposed
projects selected include:
1. Enhance Energy's Alberta CO2 Trunkline — capture from a fertilizer plant and upgrader, 240 kilometres (150 mi)
kilometre pipeline transportation and injection for enhanced oil recovery totaling approximately 1.7 million
tonnes of CO2 per year.[46]
2. Swan Hills Synfuels — capture from in-situ coal gasification (ISCG) project with injection for enhanced oil
recovery totaling 1.3M tonnes CO2 per year.[47]
3. Shell's Quest Project — capture from an oil sands upgrader with injection for storage totaling 1M tonnes CO2 per
year.[48]
4. TransAlta's Pioneer Project — a coal fired generation station with injection for storage totaling 1 million tonnes
of CO2 per year.[49]
Two additional projects have been proposed but are still securing funding: Spectra Energy's Fort Nelson Project
(British Columbia) and Sask Power's Boundary Dam Project (Saskatchewan) [50] Additionally, there are various pilot
projects occurring in Canada including the Alberta Saline Aquifer Project (ASAP), Husky Upgrader and Ethanol
Plant pilot, Heartland Area Redwater Project (HARP), Wabamun Area Sequestration Project(WASP), and
Aquistore.[51]
Another Canadian initiative is the Integrated CO2 Network (ICO2N), a group of industry participants providing a
framework for carbon capture and storage development in Canada.[52] Other Canadian organizations related to CCS
include CCS 101, Carbon Management Canada, IPAC CO2, and the Canadian Clean Power Coalition.[53]

Italy
A project exists in Porto Tolle, Italy, where a coal-fired energy plant of more than 2,500 megawatts (MW), planned
to be set up next year, will utilize a CCS unit for abating CO2 emissions coming from a 300 MW power production
line. See: Key facts: Porto Tolle [54].[55]

Netherlands
In the Netherlands, a 68 megawatt oxyfuel plant ("Zero Emission Power Plant") was being planned to be operational
in 2009.[56] This project was later canceled.
Carbon capture and storage 510

Norway
In Norway, the CO2 Technology Centre (TCM) at Mongstad began construction in 2009, and is scheduled for
completion early in 2012. It will include two capture technology plants (one advanced amine and one chilled
ammonia), both capturing fluegas from two sources. In addition, it will also include a gas fired power plant and
refinery cracker fluegas (similar to coal-fired power plant fluegas). Total capacity is 100,000 tons of CO2 per year.
[57]

Poland
In Belchatów, Poland,[55] a lignite-fired energy plant of more than 858 MW is planned to be in operation in 2013.
See: Key facts: Belchatów [58].

United States
In October 2007, the Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas at Austin received a 10-year, $38
million subcontract to conduct the first intensively monitored long-term project in the United States studying the
feasibility of injecting a large volume of CO2 for underground storage.[59] The project is a research program of the
Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (SECARB), funded by the National Energy Technology
Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).
The SECARB partnership will demonstrate CO2 injection rate and storage capacity in the Tuscaloosa-Woodbine
geologic system that stretches from Texas to Florida. The region has the potential to store more than 200 billion tons
of CO2 from major point sources in the region, equal to about 33 years of overall U.S. emissions at present rates.
Beginning in fall 2007, the project will inject CO2 at the rate of one million tons per year, for up to 1.5 years, into
brine up to 10,000 feet (3,000 m) below the land surface near the Cranfield oil field, which lays about 15 miles
(25 km) east of Natchez, Mississippi. Experimental equipment will measure the ability of the subsurface to accept
and retain CO2.
Currently, the United States government has approved the construction of what is touted as the world's first CCS
power plant, FutureGen. On January 29, 2008, however, the Department of Energy announced it was recasting the
FutureGen project and on June 24, 2008, DoE published a funding opportunity announcement seeking proposals for
an IGCC project, with integrated CCS, of at least 250MW.[60]
Examples of carbon sequestration at an existing US coal plant can be found at utility company Luminant's pilot
version at its Big Brown Steam Electric Station in Fairfield, Texas. This system is converting carbon from
smokestacks into baking soda. Skyonic plans to circumvent storage problems of liquid CO2 by storing baking soda in
mines, landfills, or simply to be sold as industrial or food grade baking soda.[61] Green Fuel Technologies is piloting
and implementing algae based carbon capture, circumventing storage issues by then converting algae into fuel or
feed.[62]
In November 2008, the DOE awarded a $66.9 million eight-year grant to a research partnership headed by Montana
State University to demonstrate that underground geologic formations “can store huge volumes of carbon dioxide
economically, safely and permanently.” Researchers under the Big Sky Regional Carbon Sequestration Project plan
to inject up to one million tonnes of CO2 into sandstone beneath southwestern Wyoming.[63]
In the United States, four different synthetic fuel projects are moving forward which have publicly announced plans
to incorporate carbon capture and storage:
1. American Clean Coal Fuels, in their Illinois Clean Fuels (ICF) project, is developing a 30,000 barrel per day
biomass and coal to liquids project in Oakland, Illinois, which will market the CO2 created at the plant for
enhanced oil recovery applications. The project is expected to come online in mid-2013. By combining
sequestration and biomass feedstocks, the ICF project will achieve dramatic reductions in the life-cycle carbon
footprint of the fuels they produce. If sufficient biomass is used, the plant should have the capability to go
Carbon capture and storage 511

life-cycle carbon negative, meaning that effectively, for each gallon of their fuel that is used, carbon is pulled out
of the air, and put into the ground.[64]
1. Baard Energy, in their Ohio River Clean Fuels project, is developing a 53,000 BPD coal and biomass to liquids
project, which has announced plans to market the plant’s CO2 for enhanced oil recovery.[65]
1. Rentech is developing a 29,600 barrel per day coal and biomass to liquids plant in Natchez, Mississippi, which
will market the plant’s CO2 for enhanced oil recovery. The first phase of the project is expected in 2011.[66]
1. DKRW is developing a 15,000-20,000 barrel per day coal to liquids plant in Medicine Bow, Wyoming, which
will market its plant’s CO2 for enhanced oil recovery. The project is expected to begin operation in 2013.[67]
In October 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy awarded grants to twelve Industrial Carbon Capture and Storage
(ICCS) projects to conduct a Phase 1 feasibility study.[68] The DOE plans to select 3 to 4 of those projects to proceed
into Phase 2, design and construction, with operational startup to occur by 2015. Battelle Memorial Institute, Pacific
Northwest Division, Boise, Inc., and Fluor Corporation are studying a CCS system for capture and storage of CO2
emissions associated with the pulp and paper production industry. The site of the study is the Boise White Paper
L.L.C. paper mill located near the township of Wallula in Southeastern Washington State. The plant generates
approximately 1.2 MMT of CO2 annually from a set of three recovery boilers that are mainly fired with black liquor,
a recycled byproduct formed during the pulping of wood for paper-making. Fluor Corporation will design a
customized version of their Econamine Plus carbon capture technology. The Fluor system also will be designed to
remove residual quantities of remnant air pollutants from stack gases as part of the CO2 capture process. Battelle is
leading preparation of an Environmental Information Volume (EIV) for the entire project, including geologic storage
of the captured CO2 in deep flood basalt formations that exist in the greater region. The EIV will describe the
necessary site characterization work, sequestration system infrastructure, and monitoring program to support
permanent sequestration of the CO2 captured at the plant.
In addition to individual carbon capture and sequestration projects, there are a number of U.S. programs designed to
research, develop, and deploy CCS technologies on a broad scale. These include the National Energy Technology
Laboratory’s (NETL) Carbon Sequestration Program, regional carbon sequestration partnerships and the Carbon
Sequestration Leadership Forum (CSLF).[69] [70]

United Kingdom
The government of the United Kingdom has launched a tender process for a CCS demonstration project. The project
will use post-combustion technology on coal-fired power generation at 300-400 megawatts or equivalent. The
project aims to be operational by 2014.[71] [72] The Government announced in June 2008 that four companies had
prequalified for the following stages of the competition: BP Alternative Energy International Limited, EON UK Plc,
Peel Power Limited and Scottish Power Generation Limited.[73] BP has subsequently withdrawn from the
competition, claiming it could not find a power generator partner, and RWE npower is seeking a judicial review of
the process after it did not qualify.[74]
Doosan Babcock has modified their Clean Combustion Test Facility (CCTF) in Renfrew, Scotland to create the
largest Oxyfuel test facility currently in the world. Oxyfuel firing on pulverized coal with recycled flue gas
demonstrates the operation of a full scale 40 MW burner for use in coal-fired boilers. Sponsors of the project include
the UK Department for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR,) as well as a group of industrial
sponsors and university partners comprising Scottish and Southern Energy (Prime Sponsor), E.ON UK PLC, Drax
Power Limited, ScottishPower, EDF Energy, Dong Energy Generation, Air Products Plc (Sponsors), and Imperial
College and University of Nottingham (University Partners).[75]
In August 2010, clean energy new-comers B9 Coal announced their intention to join the competition with a CCS
project in the North East of England. The proposal combines alkaline fuel cells with underground coal gasification
for upwards of 90% carbon capture as a by-product. It is the only project of its kind to join the competition, using
coal reserves in an environmentally friendly and efficient way.
Carbon capture and storage 512

China
In Beijing, as of 2009, one major power plant is capturing and re-selling a small fraction of its CO2 emissions. [76]

Germany
The German industrial area of Schwarze Pumpe, about 4 kilometres (2.5 mi) south of the city of Spremberg, is home
to the world's first CCS coal plant. The mini pilot plant is run by an Alstom-built oxy-fuel boiler and is also equipped
with a flue gas cleaning facility to remove fly ash and sulphur dioxide. The Swedish company Vattenfall AB
invested some 70 million Euros in the two year project, which began operation September 9, 2008. The power plant,
which is rated at 30 megawatts, is a pilot project to serve as a prototype for future full-scale power plants.[77] [78] 240
tonnes a day of CO2 are being trucked 350 kilometers (210 miles) where it will be injected into an empty gas field.
Germany's BUND group called it a "fig leaf". For each tonne of coal burned, 3.6 tonnes of carbon dioxide is
produced.[79]
German utility RWE operates a pilot-scale CO2 scrubber at the lignite-fired Niederaußem power station built in
cooperation with BASF (supplier of detergent) and Linde engineering.[80]
In Jänschwalde, Germany,[81] a pla is in the works for an Oxyfuel boiler, rated at 650 thermal MW (around 250
electric MW), which is about 20 times more than Vattenfall's 30 MW pilot plant under construction, and compares to
today’s largest Oxyfuel test rigs of 0.5 MW. Post-combustion capture technology will also be demonstrated at
Jänschwalde. See: Key facts: Jänschwalde [82].

Australia
The Federal Resources and Energy Minister Martin Ferguson opened the first geosequestration project in the
southern hemisphere in April 2008. The demonstration plant is near Nirranda South in South Western Victoria.
(35°19′S 149°08′E) The plant is owned by the Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies
(CO2CRC). CO2CRC is a non profit research collaboration supported by government and industry. The project has
stored and monitored over 65,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide-rich gas which was extracted from a natural gas reservoir
via a well, compressed and piped 2.25 km to a new well. There the gas has been injected into a depleted natural gas
reservoir approximately two kilometers below the surface.[83] [84] The project has moved to a second stage and is
investigating carbon dioxide trapping in a saline aquifer 1500 meters below the surface. The Otway Project is a
research and demonstration project, focused on comprehensive monitoring and verification.[85]
This plant does not propose to capture CO2 from coal fired power generation, though two CO2CRC demonstration
projects at a Victorian power station and research gasifier are demonstrating solvent, membrane, and adsorbent
capture technologies from coal combustion.[86] Currently, only small-scale projects are storing CO2 stripped from the
products of combustion of coal burnt for electricity generation at coal fired power stations.[87] Work currently being
carried out by the GreenMag Group and the University of Newcastle and funded by the New South Wales and
Australian Governments and industry intends to have a working mineral carbonation pilot plant in operation by
2013.[24]

Limitations of CCS for power stations


One limitation of CCS is its energy penalty. The technology is expected to use between 10 and 40 percent of the
energy produced by a power station.[88] Wide-scale adoption of CCS may erase efficiency gains of the last 50 years,
and increase resource consumption by one third. Even taking the fuel penalty into account, however, overall levels of
CO2 abatement would remain high at approximately 80-90%, compared to a plant without CCS.[89] It is theoretically
possible for CCS, when combined with combustion of biomass, to result in net negative emissions, but this is not
currently feasible given the lack of development of CCS technologies and the limitations of biomass production.[90]
Carbon capture and storage 513

The use of CCS can reduce CO2 emissions from the stacks of coal power plants by 85-90% or more, but it has no
effect on CO2 emissions due to the mining and transport of coal. It will actually "increase such emissions and of air
pollutants per unit of net delivered power and will increase all ecological, land-use, air-pollution, and water-pollution
impacts from coal mining, transport, and processing, because the CCS system requires 25% more energy, thus 25%
more coal combustion, than does a system without CCS".[91]
Another concern regards the permanence of storage schemes. It is claimed that safe and permanent storage of CO2
cannot be guaranteed and that even very low leakage rates could undermine any climate mitigation effect.[88] The
IPCC concludes, however,, that the proportion of CO2 retained in appropriately selected and managed geological
reservoirs is very likely to exceed 99% over 100 years and is likely to exceed 99% over 1,000 years.[2]
Finally, there is the issue of cost. Greenpeace claims that CCS could lead to a doubling of plant costs.[88] CCS
though may remain economically attractive in comparison to other forms of low carbon electricity generation.[92] It
is also claimed by opponents to CCS that money spent on CCS will divert investments away from other solutions to
climate change.

Cost
Although the processes involved in CCS have been demonstrated in other industrial applications, no commercial
scale projects which integrate these processes exist; the costs therefore are somewhat uncertain. Some recent credible
estimates indicate that a carbon price of US$60 per US-ton is required to make capture and storage competitive,[93]
corresponding to an increase in electricity prices of about US 6c per kWh (based on typical coal fired power plant
emissions of 2.13 pounds CO2 per kWh). This would double the typical US industrial electricity price (now at
around 6c per kWh) and increase the typical retail residential electricity price by about 50% (assuming 100% of
power is from coal, which may not necessarily be the case, as this varies from state to state). Similar (approximate)
price increases would likely be expected in coal dependent countries such as Australia, because the capture
technology and chemistry, as well as the transport and injection costs from such power plants would not, in an
overall sense, vary significantly from country to country.
The reasons that CCS is expected to cause such power price increases are several. Firstly, the increased energy
requirements of capturing and compressing CO2 significantly raises the operating costs of CCS-equipped power
plants. In addition, there are added investment and capital costs. The process would increase the fuel requirement of
a plant with CCS by about 25% for a coal-fired plant, and about 15% for a gas-fired plant.[2] The cost of this extra
fuel, as well as storage and other system costs, are estimated to increase the costs of energy from a power plant with
CCS by 30-60%, depending on the specific circumstances. Pre-commercial CCS demonstration projects are likely to
be more expensive than mature CCS technology; the total additional costs of an early large scale CCS demonstration
project are estimated to be €0.5-1.1 billion per project over the project lifetime.Other applications are possible. In
the belief that use of sequestered carbon could be harnessed to offset the cost of capture and storage, Walker
Architects published the first CO2 gas CAES application, proposing the use of sequestered CO2 for Energy Storage
on October 24, 2008. To date the feasibility of such potential offsets to the cost have not been examined.[94]
Carbon capture and storage 514

An estimate of costs of energy with and without CCS (2002 US$ per kWh)[2]
Natural gas combined cycle Pulverized coal Integrated gasification combined
cycle

Without capture (reference plant) 0.03 - 0.05 0.04 - 0.05 0.04 - 0.06

With capture and geological 0.04 - 0.08 0.06 - 0.10 0.06 - 0.09
storage

(Cost of capture and geological 0.01 - 0.03 0.02 - 0.05 0.02 - 0.03
storage)

With capture and Enhanced oil 0.04 - 0.07 0.05 - 0.08 0.04 - 0.08
recovery

All costs refer to costs for energy from newly built, large-scale plants. Natural gas combined cycle costs are based on natural gas prices of
US$2.80–4.40 per GJ (LHV based). Energy costs for PC and IGCC are based on bituminous coal costs of US$1.00–1.50 per GJ LHV. Note that the
costs are very dependent on fuel prices (which change continuously), in addition to other factors such as capital costs. Also note that for EOR, the
savings are greater for higher oil prices. Current gas and oil prices are substantially higher than the figures used here. All figures in the table are
[2]
from Table 8.3a in [IPCC, 2005].

The cost of CCS depends on the cost of capture and storage, which varies according to the method used. Geological
storage in saline formations or depleted oil or gas fields typically cost US$0.50–8.00 per tonne of CO2 injected, plus
an additional US$0.10–0.30 for monitoring costs. When storage is combined with enhanced oil recovery to extract
extra oil from an oil field, however, the storage could yield net benefits of US$10–16 per tonne of CO2 injected
(based on 2003 oil prices). This would likely negate some of the effect of the carbon capture when the oil was burnt
as fuel. Even taking this into account, as the table above shows, the benefits do not outweigh the extra costs of
capture.
Comparisons of CCS with other energy sources can be found in wind energy, solar energy, and Economics of new
nuclear power plants.

Environmental effects
The theoretical merit of CCS systems is the reduction of CO2 emissions by up to 90%, depending on plant type.
Generally, environmental effects from use of CCS arise during power production, CO2 capture, transport, and
storage. Issues relating to storage are discussed in those sections.
Additional energy is required for CO2 capture, and this means that substantially more fuel has to be used, depending
on the plant type. For new super-critical pulverized coal (PC) plants using current technology, the extra energy
requirements range from 24-40%, while for natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants the range is 11-22% and for
coal-based gasification combined cycle (IGCC) systems it is 14-25% [IPCC, 2005]. Obviously, fuel use and
environmental problems arising from mining and extraction of coal or gas increase accordingly. Plants equipped
with flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems for sulfur dioxide control require proportionally greater amounts of
limestone, and systems equipped with selective catalytic reduction systems for nitrogen oxides produced during
combustion require proportionally greater amounts of ammonia.
IPCC has provided estimates of air emissions from various CCS plant designs (see table below). While CO2 is
drastically reduced though never completely captured, emissions of air pollutants increase significantly, generally
due to the energy penalty of capture. Hence, the use of CCS entails a reduction in air quality.
Carbon capture and storage 515

Emissions to air from plants with CCS (kg/(MW•h))


Natural gas combined cycle Pulverized coal Integrated gasification combined cycle

CO2 43 (-89%) 107 (−87%) 97 (−88%)

NOX 0.11 (+22%) 0.77 (+31%) 0.1 (+11%)

SOX - 0.001 (−99.7%) 0.33 (+17.9%)

Ammonia 0.002 (before: 0) 0.23 (+2200%) -

Based on Table 3.5 in [IPCC, 2005]. Between brackets the increase or decrease compared to a similar plant without CCS.

Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage Document at COP16


On December 4, 2006 at COP16, The Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice, at its thirty-third
session, issued a draft document recommending the inclusion of Carbon dioxide capture and storage in geological
formations in Clean Development Mechanism project activities.[95] This remains subject to a final agreement at
COP17 in Durban, however, which would require that a series of environmental risk and leakage concerns be
resolved.[96]

References
[1] Burying the problem. (http:/ / www. canadiangeographic. ca/ magazine/ JF08/ indepth/ weyburn. asp), Canadian Geographic Magazine
[2] [IPCC, 2005] IPCC special report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. Prepared by working group III of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change. Metz, B., O.Davidson, H. C. de Coninck, M. Loos, and L.A. Meyer (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 442 pp. Available in full at www.ipcc.ch (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ special-reports/ srccs/
srccs_wholereport. pdf) (PDF - 22.8MB)
[3] Coal Utilization Research Council (CURC) Technology Roadmap (http:/ / www. coal. org/ roadmap/ index. asp), 2005
[4] NETL 2007 Carbon Sequestration Atlas (http:/ / www. netl. doe. gov/ technologies/ carbon_seq/ refshelf/ atlas/ index. html), 2007
[5] "Capturing Carbon Dioxide From Air" (http:/ / www. netl. doe. gov/ publications/ proceedings/ 01/ carbon_seq/ 7b1. pdf). . Retrieved
2011-03-29.
[6] "News for the Business of Energy" (http:/ / www. energycurrent. com/ index. php?id=2& storyid=7910). Energy Current. . Retrieved
2010-04-02.
[7] "World’s Ethanol Production Forecast 2008–2012" (http:/ / www. marketresearchanalyst. com/ 2008/ 01/ 26/
world-ethanol-production-forecast-2008-2012/ ). Market Research Analyst. . Retrieved 2010-04-02.
[8] "Gasification Body" (http:/ / www. netl. doe. gov/ publications/ brochures/ pdfs/ Gasification_Brochure. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-04-02.
[9] integrated gasification combined cycle for carbon capture storage (http:/ / www. claverton-energy. com/
integrated-gasification-combined-cycle-for-carbon-capture-storage. html) Claverton Energy Group conference 24th October Bath.
[10] Energy Futures Laboratory and the Grantham Institute for Climate Change (http:/ / www3. imperial. ac. uk/ carboncaptureandstorage)
[11] Bryngelsson, M., Westermark, M., "Feasibility study of CO2 removal from pressurized flue gas in a fully fired combined cycle — the Sargas
project", KTH — Royal Institute of Technology, Dept. of Chemical Engineering and Technology, SE-100 44 Stockholm, Sweden. http:/ / www.
sciencedirect. com/ science (http:/ / www. sciencedirect. com/ science?_ob=ArticleURL& _udi=B984K-4W0SFYG-6H& _user=10&
_coverDate=02/ 28/ 2009& _rdoc=1& _fmt=high& _orig=search& _origin=search& _sort=d& _docanchor=& view=c&
_searchStrId=1633974767& _rerunOrigin=google& _acct=C000050221& _version=1& _urlVersion=0& _userid=10&
md5=24eeabbca2f0cbdb7abb5c4d48b296a3& searchtype=a)
[12] Bryngelsson, M., Westermark, M., "CO2 capture pilot test at a pressurized coal fired CHP plant", GHGT-9, Energy Procedia 1 (2009) 1403
- 1409. (http:/ / www. sargas. no/ untitled/ files/ Westermark report II 180605. pdf)
[13] Winner: Restoring Coal's Sheen, William Sweet, IEEE Spectrum, January 2008. Available in full at (http:/ / spectrum. ieee. org/ jan08/
5819)
[14] Capturing CO2 from ambient air: a feasibility assessment (http:/ / wpweb2. tepper. cmu. edu/ ceic/ theses/
Joshuah_Stolaroff_PhD_Thesis_2006. pdf) PhD thesis, Joshuah K. Stolaroff, August 17, 2006
[15] "First Successful Demonstration of Carbon Dioxide Air Capture Technology Achieved by Columbia University Scientist and Private
Company" (http:/ / www. earth. columbia. edu/ news/ 2007/ story04-24-07. php). Earth.columbia.edu. . Retrieved 2010-04-14.
[16] "Wallula Energy Resource Center" (http:/ / www. wallulaenergy. com/ index. tpl?dsp=what). Wallulaenergy.com. 2007-06-14. . Retrieved
2010-04-02.
[17] Paul W. Parfomak and Peter Folger, “CRS Report for Congress: Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Pipelines for Carbon Sequestration: Emerging Policy
Issues,” Updated January 17, 2008 (Order Code RL33971) <http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/RL33971_20080117.pdf>
Carbon capture and storage 516

[18] Adam Vann and Paul W. Parfomak, "CRS Report for Congress: Regulation of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Sequestration Pipelines: Jurisdictional
Issues," Updated April 15, 2008 (Order Code RL34307) <http://ncseonline.org/nle/crs/abstract.cfm?NLEid=2051> (reviewing federal
jurisdictional issues related to CO2 pipelines and reviewing agency jurisdictional determinations under the Interstate Commerce Act and the
Natural Gas Act)
[19] "IPCC "Special Report on Carbon Capture and Storage, pp. 181 and 203 (Chapter 5, "Underground Geological Storage")" (http:/ / www.
ipcc. ch/ pdf/ special-reports/ srccs/ srccs_chapter5. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-04-14.
[20] Rocks Found That Could Store Greenhouse Gas (http:/ / www. livescience. com/ environment/ 090309-co2-rock-map. html), Live Science,
March 9, 2009
[21] "Warning signs on the ocean floor: China and India Exploit Icy Energy Reserves: Part 2: Can a Potential Curse Be Transformed into a
Blessing?" (http:/ / www. spiegel. de/ international/ world/ 0,1518,523178-2,00. html). Spiegel.de. . Retrieved 2010-04-14.
[22] "The great submarine burp" (http:/ / www. economist. com/ displayStory. cfm?story_id=9708477& fsrc=RSS). Economist.com. 2007-08-27.
. Retrieved 2010-04-14.
[23] "Deep-Sea Disposal Of Fossil-Fuel Co2: First Ocean Observations" (http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com/ releases/ 1999/ 05/ 990507071858.
htm). Sciencedaily.com. 1999-05-07. . Retrieved 2010-04-14.
[24] "GreenMag-Newcastle Mineral Carbonation Pilot Plant" (http:/ / www. dpi. nsw. gov. au/ minerals/ resources/ low-emissions-coal/
nsw-clean-coal-fund-research-projects#Storage-of-Captured-Carbon-Dioxide-(CO-sub-2--sub-)). www.dpi.nsw.gov.au. 2010-06-06. .
Retrieved 2010-06-06.
[25] Goldberg, Chen, O’Connor, Walters, and Ziock. (1998). "CO2 Mineral Sequestration Studies in US", National Energy Technology
Laboratory. Retrieved June 7th, 2007 from: http:/ / www. netl. doe. gov/ publications/ proceedings/ 01/ carbon_seq/ 6c1. pdf
[26] Natuurwetenschap & Techniek; April 2009; CCS leakage risks (http:/ / plein66. nl/ documents/ 1024/ artikel_CO2-opslag. pdf)
[27] Pentland, William. "The Carbon Conundrum." Forbes.com. 6 October 2008. http:/ / www. forbes. com/ 2008/ 10/ 06/
carbon-sequestration-biz-energy-cx_wp_1007capture. html
[28] Wagner, Leonard. "Carbon Capture and Storage." Moraassociates.com. 2007. http:/ / www. moraassociates. com/ publications/
0701%20Carbon%20capture%20and%20storage. pdf
[29] "Norway: StatoilHydro's Sleipner carbon capture and storage project proceeding successfully" (http:/ / www. energy-pedia. com/ article.
aspx?articleid=134204). Energy-pedia. 8 March 2009. . Retrieved 19 December 2009.
[30] Allan Casey, Carbon Cemetery, Canadian Geographic Magazine, Jan/Feb 2008, p. 61
[31] Lafleur, Paul (August 27, 2010). "GEOCHEMICAL SOIL GAS SURVEY, A Site Investigation of SW30-5-13-W2M, Weyburn Field,
SASKATCHEWAN" (http:/ / www. ecojustice. ca/ media-centre/ media-release-files/ petro-find-geochem-ltd. -report/ at_download/ file). .
Retrieved 2011-01-12.. PDF file linked to from press release (http:/ / www. ecojustice. ca/ media-centre/ press-releases/ sask.
-family-demands-answers-on-carbon-capture-and-storage-risks) of 2011-01-11.
[32] http:/ / www. ptrc. ca/ siteimages/ WMP-Response-to-Petro-Find. pdf
[33] http:/ / www. 3d-geo. com
[34] New Scientist No2645, 1st March 2008.
[35] Chang, Kenneth (2008-02-19). "Scientists Would Turn Greenhouse Gas Into Gasoline" (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2008/ 02/ 19/ science/
19carb. html?_r=1). The New York Times. . Retrieved 2010-04-03.
[36] MacKay, David J.C. "Appendix C Planes II" (http:/ / www. inference. phy. cam. ac. uk/ withouthotair/ cC/ page_269. shtml). Sustainable
Energy — without the hot air. p. 269. . Retrieved 2010-09-05.
[37] David Biello: Chemical Process Makes Fuel from Carbon Dioxide (http:/ / www. scientificamerican. com/ article.
cfm?id=chemical-process-makes-fu) Scientific American Sept 16, 2006
[38] "Saline Aquifer CO2 Storage (SACS)" (http:/ / www. sintef. net/ Projectweb/ IK-23430000-SACS/ ). Sintef.net. . Retrieved 2010-04-14.
[39] Allan Casey, ibid, p. 63
[40] "CO2 Capture and Storage — Dakota Gasification Company" (http:/ / www. dakotagas. com/ CO2_Capture_and_Storage/ index. html).
Dakotagas.com. 2008-12-31. . Retrieved 2011-02-23.
[41] "President Carter loan guarantee statement, 1980" (http:/ / www. presidency. ucsb. edu/ ws/ index. php?pid=44770). Presidency.ucsb.edu.
1980-07-18. . Retrieved 2010-04-14.
[42] Allan Casey, ibid, p. 59
[43] "About the In Salah Project" (http:/ / www. insalahco2. com). Insalahco2.com. . Retrieved 2010-04-02.
[44] "Carbon Capture and Storage in Canada" (http:/ / www. deloitte. com/ view/ en_CA/ ca/ industries/ energyandresources/
1f769be5d3752210VgnVCM100000ba42f00aRCRD. htm). Deloitte. .
[45] "Alberta Energy: Carbon Capture and Storage" (http:/ / www. energy. alberta. ca/ Initiatives/ 1438. asp). Energy.alberta.ca. . Retrieved
2010-04-02.
[46] "Enhance Energy Inc. | Enhanced Oil Recovery, Carbon Capture and Storage" (http:/ / www. enhanceenergy. com/ ). Enhanceenergy.com. .
Retrieved 2010-04-02.
[47] "Home" (http:/ / www. swanhills-synfuels. com/ ). Swan Hills Synfuels. . Retrieved 2010-04-02.
[48] "Quest Completes Letter of Intent — Canada" (http:/ / www. shell. ca/ home/ content/ can-en/ aboutshell/ media_centre/ features/ 2009/
feature_oct8_quest. html). Shell.ca. 2009-10-08. . Retrieved 2010-04-02.
[49] "Keephills 3 FAQ" (http:/ / www. transalta. com/ node/ 523). TransAlta. 2009-08-24. . Retrieved 2010-04-02.
Carbon capture and storage 517

[50] "Canadian CCS Projects" (http:/ / www. ico2n. com/ ccs-in-canada/ canadas-ccs-story/ first-projects-in-canada). ICO2N. . Retrieved
2011-03-01.
[51] "Demonstrating Carbon Capture and Storage in Canada" (http:/ / www. nrcan-rncan. gc. ca/ eneene/ pubpub/ pdf/ ccscsc-eng. pdf). NRCan.
2010. . Retrieved 2011-03-01.
[52] "Canada's integrated carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage initiative" (http:/ / www. ico2n. com). ICO2N. . Retrieved 2011-03-01.
[53] "Canadian CCS Organizations" (http:/ / www. ico2n. com/ ccs-in-canada/ other-industry-organizations). ICO2N. . Retrieved 2011-03-01.
[54] http:/ / microsites. ccsnetwork. eu/ porto-tolle
[55] "CCS project granted funding under the European Energy Programme for Recovery (EEPR)" (https:/ / www. ccsnetwork. eu/ index.
php?p=networkActivities). https:/ / www. ccsnetwork. eu. . Retrieved 2010-07-13.
[56] "Demonstration project The Netherlands: Zero Emission Power Plant" (http:/ / www. createacceptance. net/ fileadmin/ create-acceptance/
user/ docs/ Demonstration_project_The_Netherlands. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-04-14.
[57] Webmaster Gassnova. "TCM homepage" (http:/ / www. tcmda. com). Tcmda.com. . Retrieved 2010-04-14.
[58] http:/ / microsites. ccsnetwork. eu/ belchatow
[59] "Bureau of Economic Geology Receives $38 Million for First Large-Scale U.S. Test Storing Carbon Dioxide Underground" (http:/ / www.
jsg. utexas. edu/ news/ rels/ 102407. html). Jsg.utexas.edu. 2007-10-24. . Retrieved 2010-04-14.
[60] DoE Funding opportunity announcement "Restructured Futuregen" http:/ / fossil. energy. gov/ programs/ powersystems/ futuregen/
Restructured_FutureGen_Final_FOA__6-24-0. pdf
[61] "The Skymine Process" (http:/ / skyonic. com/ skymine/ ). Skyonic.com. . Retrieved 2010-04-14.
[62] (http:/ / www. greenfuelonline. com/ index. html)
[63] "SU receives $66.9 million carbon sequestration" (http:/ / www. bozemandailychronicle. com/ articles/ 2008/ 11/ 18/ news/ 40grant. txt),
Bozeman Daily Chronicle, 2008-11-18. Retrieved on 2008-18-11.
[64] "American Clean Coal Fuels" (http:/ / www. cleancoalfuels. com/ cleancoalfuels_projects. html). Cleancoalfuels.com. . Retrieved
2010-04-02.
[65] "Baard Energy Home- An Energy Development Company" (http:/ / www. baardenergy. com/ orcf. htm). Baardenergy.com. . Retrieved
2010-04-02.
[66] "Natchez Project" (http:/ / www. rentechinc. com/ natchez. php). Rentechinc.com. . Retrieved 2010-04-14.
[67] DKRW Energy. "Medicine Bow — DKRW Energy" (http:/ / www. dkrwadvancedfuels. com/ fw/ main/ Medicine_Bow-111. html).
Dkrwadvancedfuels.com. . Retrieved 2010-04-02.
[68] "DOE — Fossil Energy: Industrial CCS projects from Recovery Act" (http:/ / fossil. energy. gov/ recovery/ projects/ industrial_ccs. html).
Fossil.energy.gov. . Retrieved 2010-04-02.
[69] NETL Carbon Sequestration (http:/ / www. netl. doe. gov/ technologies/ carbon_seq/ index. html) NETL Web site. Retrieved on
2008-21-11.
[70] "Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum" (http:/ / www. cslforum. org). Cslforum.org. . Retrieved 2010-04-02.
[71] "Microsoft Word — Information Memorandum 151107 - final.DOC" (http:/ / www. berr. gov. uk/ files/ file42478. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved
2010-04-02.
[72] "The European Archive | UK Government Web Archive" (http:/ / www. berr. gov. uk/ whatwedo/ energy/ sources/ sustainable/ ccs/
ccs-demo/ page40961. html). Berr.gov.uk. . Retrieved 2010-04-02.
[73] "Former Govt dept: Department for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform" (http:/ / nds. coi. gov. uk/ content/ detail.
aspx?NewsAreaId=2& ReleaseID=372398). Nds.coi.gov.uk. 2008-06-30. . Retrieved 2010-04-14.
[74] "BP quits carbon capture competition" (http:/ / www. rsc. org/ chemistryworld/ News/ 2008/ November/ 10110802. asp). Rsc.org. .
Retrieved 2010-04-02.
[75] "£7.4M Oxycoal 2 project given go-ahead: News from Doosan Babcock Energy Ltd" (http:/ / www. pandct. com/ media/ shownews.
asp?ID=17013). Pandct.com. . Retrieved 2010-04-02.
[76] Heard on Morning Edition (2009-04-10). "China Puts Fizz In Bid To Reduce Carbon Emissions" (http:/ / www. npr. org/ templates/
transcript/ transcript. php?storyId=102920210). Npr.org. . Retrieved 2010-04-14.
[77] Germany leads 'clean coal' pilot (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 7584151. stm). BBC News. 2008-09-03.
[78] Access all areas: Schwarze Pumpe (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 7584155. stm). BBC News. 2008-09-03.
[79] 'Emissions-free' power plant pilot fires up in Germany (http:/ / news. yahoo. com/ s/ afp/ 20080909/ bs_afp/ germanywarmingemissions)
[80] "BASF, RWE Power and Linde are developing new processes for CO2 capture in coal-fired power plants" (http:/ / www. basf. com/ group/
corporate/ en/ content/ news-and-media-relations/ news-releases/ P-07-426). Basf.com work = Press Release. 2007-09-28. . Retrieved
2010-04-14.
[81] "CCS project granted funding under the European Energy Programme for Recovery (EEPR)" (https:/ / www. ccsnetwork. eu/ index.
php?p=networkActivities). https:/ / www. ccsnetwork. eu/ . & #32;2010-04-28. . Retrieved 2010-07-13.
[82] http:/ / microsites. ccsnetwork. eu/ jaenschwalde
[83] http:/ / news. sbs. com. au/ worldnewsaustralia/ / first_carbon_storage_plant_launched_544064
[84] "Seeking clean coal science 'only option'" (http:/ / news. theage. com. au/ seeking-clean-coal-science-only-option/ 20080402-237d. html).
News.theage.com.au. 2008-04-02. . Retrieved 2010-04-14.
[85] "CO2CRC Otway Project overview" (http:/ / www. co2crc. com. au/ otway/ ). Co2crc.com.au. 2010-02-18. . Retrieved 2010-04-14.
[86] "Demonstrating CCS" (http:/ / www. co2crc. com. au/ demo/ ). Co2crc.com.au. 2010-05-06. . Retrieved 2010-05-31.
Carbon capture and storage 518

[87] "Australia’s largest carbon capture project gets underway" (http:/ / www. energyefficiencynews. com/ features/ i/ 2523/ ).
energyefficiencynews.com. 2009-10-27. . Retrieved 2010-05-31.
[88] Rochon, Emily et al. False Hope: Why carbon capture and storage won’t save the climate (http:/ / www. greenpeace. org/ international/
press/ reports/ false-hope) Greenpeace, May 2008, p.5.
[89] http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ special-reports/ srccs/ srccs_wholereport. pdf
[90] Biomass with capture: negative emissions within social and environmental constraints: an editorial comment, James S. Rhodes and David
W. Keith http:/ / www. springerlink. com/ content/ f14824w8v6757nv6/
[91] Jacobson, Mark Z. and Delucchi, Mark A. (2010). "Providing all Global Energy with Wind, Water, and Solar Power, Part I: Technologies,
Energy Resources, Quantities and Areas of Infrastructure, and Materials" (http:/ / www. stanford. edu/ group/ efmh/ jacobson/ Articles/ I/
WWSEnergyPolicyPtI. pdf). Energy Policy. p. 4. .
[92] "20244 DTI Energy Review_AW" (http:/ / www. berr. gov. uk/ files/ file32014. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-04-14.
[93] Science, 27 February 2009, Vol 323, p 1158, “Stimulus Gives DOE Billions for Carbon-Capture Project”
[94] CCS — Assessing the Economics, Mckinsey, 2008 http:/ / www. mckinsey. com/ clientservice/ ccsi/ pdf/ CCS_Assessing_the_Economics.
pdf
[95] SBSTA Presents Global Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage Data at COP16 (http:/ / abclive. in/ news/ environment/ clean-engergy/
490-sbsta-global-carbon-dioxide-capture-and-storage-data-cop16. html)
[96] Carbon Capture and Storage in the Clean Development Mechanism (http:/ / www. carbontradewatch. org/ articles/
carbon-markets-after-cancun-carbon-capture-and-storage-in-the-clean-development-mech. html), Carbon Trade Watch, 20 January 2011

Bibliography
• Environmental Challenges and Greenhouse Gas Control for Fossil Fuel Utilization in the 21st Century. Edited by
M. Mercedes Maroto-Valer et al., Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, New York, 2002: "Sequestration of
Carbon Dioxide by Ocean Fertilization", pg 122. By M. Markels, Jr. and R.T. Barber.
• Nobel Intent: Carbon Dioxide Lakes in the Deep Ocean, September 19, 2006 @ 11:08AM - posted by John
Timmer (http://arstechnica.com/journals/science.ars/2006/9/19/5341)
• Solomon, Semere. (July 2006). Carbon Dioxide Storage: Geological Security and Environmental Issues Case
Study on the Sleipner Gas Field in Norway. The Bellona Foundation. Retrieved November 7, 2006 (http://
bellona.no/filearchive/fil_Paper_Solomon_-_CO2_Storage.pdf)
• ICO2N - The Vision (http://www.ico2n.com/docs/tech/ICON Vision.pdf)
• Stephens, J. 2006. Growing interest in carbon capture and storage (CCS) for climate change mitigation.
Sustainability: Science, Practice, & Policy 2(2):4–13. Published online November 29, 2006 (http://ejournal.nbii.
org/archives/vol2iss2/0604-016.stephens.html)
• The illusion of clean coal - Climate change, Mar 5th 2009, The Economist print edition (http://www.economist.
com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13235041)
• [[The Economist (http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13226661)] (2009) Trouble in store
- Carbon capture and storage, Mar 5th 2009, The Economist print edition]
• Bullis, K. (2009, October). Capturing carbon dioxide through cement production. Technology Review, 112(5)
(http://www.technologyreview.com/TR35/Profile.aspx?TRID=804)
• Biello, D. (2008, August 7). Cement from CO2: a concrete cure for global warming?. Scientific American (http://
www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=cement-from-carbon-dioxide)

Further reading
• . Hester, Ronald E; Roy M. Harrison (2009). Carbon capture: sequestration and storage (http://books.google.
ca/books?id=Xg4YRfZ7Rx4C&lpg=PP1&dq=Carbon capture and storage&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&f=true)
(Issues in environmental science and technology, 29. ed.). Royal Society of Chemistry. ISBN 9781847559173
• Shackley, Simon; Clair Gough (2006). Carbon capture and its storage: an integrated assessment (http://books.
google.ca/books?id=HeTMFzfuXHsC&lpg=PP1&dq=Carbon capture and storage&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&
f=true). Ashgate. ISBN 0754644995
• Wilson, Elizabeth J; David Gerard (2007). Carbon capture and sequestration : integrating technology,
monitoring and regulation (http://books.google.ca/books?id=s2mswAit2FsC&lpg=PA99&dq=Carbon
capture and storage&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&f=true). Blackwell Publishing. ISBN 9780813802077
Carbon capture and storage 519

• Metz, Bert (2005). IPCC special report on carbon dioxide capture and storage (http://books.google.ca/
books?id=HWgRvPUgyvQC&lpg=PA50&dq=Carbon capture and storage&pg=PA50#v=onepage&q&f=true).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group III (Cambridge University Press).
ISBN 052186643X

External links
• DOE Fossil Energy (http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/sequestration/index.html) Department of
Energy programs in carbon dioxide capture and storage.
• Algae based CCS, CO2 Capture with Algae (http://www.powerplantccs.com/ccs/cap/fut/alg/alg.html)
• 2007 NETL Carbon Sequestration Atlas (http://www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/carbon_seq/refshelf/atlas/
index.html)
• Scientific Facts on CO2 Capture and Storage (http://www.greenfacts.org/en/co2-capture-storage/index.htm),
a peer-reviewed summary of the IPCC Special Report on CCS.
• Carbon Sequestration News (http://www.jsg.utexas.edu/carboncapture/carbonsequestration.html) Recent
news articles on CO2 capture and storage.
• "Burying Climate Change: Efforts Begin to Sequester Carbon Dioxide from Power Plants" (http://www.
scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=burying-climate-change), West Virginia hosts the world's first power
plant to inject some of its CO2 emissions underground for permanent storage, Scientific American, September 22,
2009.
• Mitigate your Carbon emissions by planting trees (http://www.energy.eu/) Green EU Initiative
• A Guide To Carbon Capture And Storage: Can carbon capture and storage save the climate from the
consequences of fossil fuel burning? (http://www.scientificamerican.com/report.
cfm?id=carbon-capture-storage-ccs)
• Powerplantccs Power Plant Carbon Capture, Storage, CO2 Sequestration (http://www.powerplantccs.com)
• Paving the Legal Path for Carbon Sequestration from Coal (http://www.law.duke.edu/shell/cite.pl?19+
Duke+Envtl.+L.+&+Pol'y+F.+211+pdf) 2009 journal article on CCS legal questions.
Geoengineering 520

Geoengineering
The modern concept of geoengineering (or climate engineering)
proposes to deliberately manipulate a planet's climate, typically the
Earth's, to counteract the effects of global warming from greenhouse
gas emissions. Other uses of the word sometimes occur, meaning
geotechnical engineering.
The National Academy of Sciences defined geoengineering as "options
that would involve large-scale engineering of our environment in order
to combat or counteract the effects of changes in atmospheric
chemistry." [1] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
concluded in 2007 that geoengineering options, such as ocean
fertilization to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, remained largely
unproven.[2] It was judged that reliable cost estimates for
geoengineering had not yet been published.

Geoengineering accompanies mitigation and adaptation to form a


3-stranded 'MAG' approach to tackling global warming, notably An oceanic phytoplankton bloom in the South
[3] Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of Argentina.
advocated by the Institution of Mechanical Engineers. Some
Encouraging such blooms with iron fertilization
geoengineering techniques are based on carbon sequestration. These could lock up carbon on the seabed.
techniques seek to reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere directly.
These include direct methods (e.g. carbon dioxide air capture) and indirect methods (e.g. ocean iron fertilization).
These techniques can be regarded as mitigation of global warming. Alternatively, solar radiation management
techniques do not reduce greenhouse gas concentrations, and can only address the warming effects of carbon dioxide
and other gases; they cannot address problems such as ocean acidification, which are expected as a result of rising
carbon dioxide levels. Examples of proposed solar radiation management techniques include the production of
stratospheric sulfur aerosols, which was suggested by Paul Crutzen,[4] space mirrors, and cloud reflectivity
enhancement. Most techniques have at least some side effects.

To date, no large-scale geoengineering projects have been undertaken. Some limited tree planting[5] and cool roof[6]
projects are already underway, and ocean iron fertilization is at an advanced stage of research, with small-scale
research trials and global modelling having been completed.[7] Field research into sulfur aerosols has also started.[8]
Some commentators have suggested that consideration of geoengineering presents a moral hazard because it
threatens to reduce the political and popular pressure for emissions reduction.[9] Typically, the scientists and
engineers proposing geoengineering strategies do not suggest that they are an alternative to emissions control, but
rather an accompanying strategy.[10] Reviews of geoengineering techniques have emphasised that they are not
substitutes for emission controls and have identified potentially stronger and weaker schemes.[11] [12] [13]

Definition
Geoengineering is the idea of applying planetary engineering to Earth. Geoengineering would involve the deliberate
modification of Earth's environment on a large scale "to suit human needs and promote habitability".[14] Typically,
the term is used to describe proposals to counter the effects of human-induced climate change. However, others
define it more narrowly as nature-integrated engineering projects.[15] The term geoengineering is distinct from
environmental damage and accidental anthropogenic climate change, which are side-effects of human activity, rather
than an intended consequence. The global extraction of hydrocarbons from the subsurface using integrated
geoscience and engineering technology has been termed 'petroleum geoengineering' as an activity with global
impact.[16] Definitions of the term are not universally accepted.[17]
Geoengineering 521

Background
The field is currently experiencing a surge of interest as it has now become broadly accepted that global warming is
both real and dangerous. A degree of urgency in efforts to research and implement potential solutions is based on the
historic failure to control emissions, and the possibility that tipping points in the Earth's climate system are close at
hand.[18] In particular the Arctic shrinkage is causing accelerated regional warming. Rapid action with
geoengineering may be necessary. Other tipping points might be avoided by reducing the impact of global warming
in order to stifle positive feedback and prevent the resulting accelerated climate change.
The study of geoengineering is a complex discipline, as it requires the collation of knowledge in:
• scientific disciplines including atmospheric chemistry, ecology, meteorology, plant biology
• engineering disciplines including aeronautical engineering, naval architecture, ballistics
• management and control disciplines such as risk management, operational research, cost-benefit analysis
Several notable organisations have recently, or are soon to, investigate geoengineering with a view to evaluating its
potential. Notably, NASA,[19] the Royal Society,[20] the Institute of Mechanical Engineers,[21] [22] and the UK
Parliament,[23] have all held inquiries or contests aimed at discovering and evaluating current knowledge of the
subject. The Asilomar International Conference on Climate Intervention Technologies was convened to identify and
develop risk reduction guidelines for climate intervention experimentation.[24]
The major environmental organisations such as Friends of the Earth[25] and Greenpeace[26] have typically been
reluctant to endorse geoengineering. Some have argued that any public support for geoengineering may weaken the
fragile political consensus to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.[27]

Proposed strategies
Several geoengineering strategies have been proposed. The documentaries Five ways to save the world and La
temperature grimpe[28] describe many of the most notable projects. IPCC documents also detail several proposed
projects.[29]

Solar radiation management


Solar radiation management[30] (SRM) projects seek to reduce the amount of sunlight hitting the Earth and thus
counteract global warming. They do not reduce greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and thus do not
address problems such as ocean acidification caused by these gases. The phenomenon of global dimming as a
side-effect of fossil fuel use is widely known, and is not necessarily a geoengineering technique, also occurring
naturally as a result of volcanoes and major forest fires. However, its deliberate manipulation is a tool of the
geoengineer.
Solar radiation management projects often have the advantage of speed. While greenhouse gas remediation offers a
comprehensive possible solution to climate change, it does not give instant results; for that, solar radiation
management is required.
Techniques that fall into this category include:
• Creating stratospheric sulfur aerosols
• Ocean foams[31]
• Cool roof—using pale-coloured roofing and paving materials
• Cloud reflectivity enhancement – using fine sea water spray to whiten clouds and increase cloud reflectivity.
• Space sunshade—obstructing solar radiation with space-based mirrors or other structures
• Cloud seeding of cirrus clouds, possibly using airliners.[32]
Geoengineering 522

Greenhouse gas remediation


Greenhouse gas remediation projects seek to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, and thus tackle the root
cause of global warming. They either directly remove greenhouse gases, or alternatively seek to influence natural
processes to remove greenhouse gases indirectly. These projects offer a comprehensive solution to the problem of
excess greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, but they will take many years to work fully. Many projects overlap with
carbon capture and storage and carbon sequestration projects, and may not be considered to be geoengineering by all
commentators. Techniques in this category include:
• Ocean nourishment including Iron fertilisation of the oceans
• Creating biochar (anaerobic charcoal) and burying it to create terra preta
• Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage
• Carbon air capture to remove carbon dioxide from ambient air

Arctic geoengineering
Various hydrological geoengineering projects aim to change the climate without directly or indirectly removing
greenhouse gases, or directly influencing solar radiation. These principally act by limiting Arctic sea ice loss.
Keeping the Arctic ice is seen by many commentators as vital,[33] due to its role in the planet's albedo and in keeping
methane, which is an important greenhouse gas, locked up in permafrost.[34]

Heat transport
The use of vertical ocean pipes to mix cooler deep water and warmer surface water has been proposed. This
technology has also been suggested for the disruption of hurricanes by Bill Gates and others in a recent patent
application.[35] [36] Modification of hurricanes may be considered weather modification rather than geoengineering,
depending on the definition used.

Justification
The use of geoengineering to tackle climate change is advocated for several specific reasons:

Tipping points and positive feedback


It is argued that climate change has already,
or is soon to have passed one or more
tipping points[18] where aspects of the
climate system may 'tip' from one stable
state to another stable state, much like a
glass tipping over. When the new stable
state is reached, it may trigger or accelerate
warming positive feedback effects,[37] such
as the collapse of Arctic sea ice triggering
the release of methane from permafrost in
Siberia.[38] [39] The "nightmare scenario" is
that a domino effect will occur, with
Climate change during the last 65 million years. The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal
successive parts of the climate system Maximum is labelled PETM.
tipping one after the other, with each change
being caused by the previous one and causing the next one. Such a situation will lead to spiralling and potentially
sudden climate change.
Geoengineering 523

The precise identity of such "tipping points" is not clear, with scientists taking differing views on whether specific
systems are capable of "tipping" and the point at which this "tipping" will occur.[40] An example of a previous
tipping point is that which preceded the rapid warming leading up to the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum.
Once the tipping point is reached, cuts in greenhouse gas emissions will not be able to reverse the change.
Depending on the precise nature of the individual system that "tips", positive feedbacks may occur, with warming
causing more warming, which causes yet more warming—a runaway global warming event.[41] Therefore, some
commentators suggest that more conservative use of resources is not enough to mitigate global warming. Even if all
greenhouse emissions suddenly came to a complete halt, the world would continue to be affected for centuries,[42]
and further warming may occur due to positive feedback. Conservation of resources and reduction of greenhouse
emissions, used in conjunction with geoengineering, are therefore considered a viable option.[43] [44] [45]
Geoengineering offers the hope of temporarily reversing some aspects of climate change and allowing the natural
climate to be substantially preserved whilst greenhouse gas emissions are brought under control and removed from
the atmosphere by natural or artificial processes.

Precautionary principle
Bearing in mind the threats from climate change, it can be argued that attempting geoengineering represents a lesser
risk than not pursuing such strategies. While the understanding of geoengineering techniques is limited, the risks of
global warming are at least partially understood, and are severe.[46]

Costs
Some geoengineering techniques, such as the use of pale-coloured materials for roofing and paving, can be achieved
at little or no cost, and may even offer a financial payback.[47] IPCC (2007) concluded that reliable cost estimates for
geoengineering options had not been published.[2] This finding was based on medium agreement in the literature and
limited evidence.

Ethics and Responsibility


Climate engineering would represent a large-scale, intentional effort to modify the environment. It differs from
inadvertent climate change through activities such as burning fossil fuels, cutting down forests and many others.
Intentional climate change is viewed very differently from a moral standpoint as it would involve a planned and
direct insertion of particles (for example sulphate aerosols) into the atmosphere[48] . This creates a moral hazard and
raises questions of whether we as humans have the right to change the climate. Following on from this, is the
question of what is the ‘right’ climate to live in. According to some scientists, countries such as Antarctica and
northern parts of Canada would benefit from global warming as this would create opportunities for agriculture and
other economical benefits[49] .
Geoengineering techniques to cool the planet for the time being have not been a popular and dynamic idea because
of its inability to solve a multitude of other issues apart from lowering global temperatures[50] . This is the main
reason that scientists have kept from publishing articles regarding this topic. The fear is that with the knowledge of
the possible option of geoengineering, this reliance will reduce incentives for industries and even consumers to take
measures to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. It is argued that geoengineering could be used to ‘buy time’
before drastic climate change happens, allowing mitigation and adaptation measures more time to be implemented
and work[51] . But the opposition points out that there are issues regarding the interference this causes with actual
efforts for climate change, creating an unnecessary distraction.
Geoengineering 524

Political viability
It has been argued that regardless of the economic, scientific and technical aspects, the difficulty of achieving
concerted political action on climate change requires other approaches.[52] Those arguing political expediency say
the difficulty of achieving meaningful emissions cuts [53] and the effective failure of the Kyoto Protocol demonstrate
the practical difficulties of achieving carbon dioxide emissions reduction by the agreement of the international
community.[54] However, others point to support for geoengineering proposals among think tanks with a history of
climate change skepticism and opposition to emissions reductions as evidence that the prospect of geoengineering is
itself already politicized and being promoted as part of an argument against the need for (and viability of) emissions
reductions; that, rather than geoengineering being a solution to the difficulties of emissions reductions, the prospect
of geoengineering is being used as part of an argument to stall emissions reductions in the first place.[55]
Geoenginering poses several challenges in the context of governance because of issues of power and jurisdiction[56] .
Geoengineering as a climate change solution differs from other mitigation and adaptation strategies. Unlike a carbon
trading system that would be focused on participation from multiple parties along with transparency, monitoring
measures and compliance procedures; this is not necessarily required by geoengineering. Bengtsson[57] (2006)
argues that “the artificial release of sulphate aerosols is a commitment of at least several hundred years”. This
highlights the importance for a political framework that is sustainable enough to contain a multilateral commitment
over such a long period and yet is flexible as the techniques innovate through time. There are many controversies
surrounding this topic and hence, geoengineering has been made into a very political issue. Most discussions and
debates are not about which geoengineering technique is better than the other, or which one is more economically
and socially feasible. Discussions are broadly on who will have control over the deployment of geoengineering and
under what governance regime the deployment can be monitored and supervised. This is especially important due to
the regional variability of the affects of many geoengineering techniques, benefiting some countries while damaging
others. The challenge posed by geoengineering is not how to get countries to do it. It is to address the fundamental
question of who should decide whether and how geoengineering should be attempted – a problem of governance[58] .

Risks and criticisms


Various criticisms have been made of geoengineering.[59] However, the existence of criticism should not be taken to
mean that those raising it are opposed to a particular technique, but rather that they are pointing out a potential
disadvantage or downside which may need to be monitored or controlled, or may alternatively weigh against a
particular technique. Some commentators appear fundamentally opposed, however. Individuals such as Raymond
Pierrehumbert have called for a moratorium on geoengineering techniques.[60] [61]
Geoengineering 525

Ineffectiveness
The effectiveness of the schemes proposed may fall short of predictions. In ocean iron fertilization, for example, the
amount of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere may be much lower than predicted, as carbon taken up by
plankton may be released back into the atmosphere from dead plankton, rather than being carried to the bottom of
the sea and sequestered.[62]

Incomplete solution to CO2


emissions
Techniques that do not remove greenhouse
gases from the atmosphere may control
global warming, but do not reduce other
effects from these gases, such as ocean
acidification.[63] While not an argument
against geoengineering per se, this is an
argument against reliance on geoengineering
to the exclusion of greenhouse gas
reduction.

Control and predictability Change in sea surface pH caused by anthropogenic CO2 between the 1700s and the
1990s. This ocean acidification will still be a major problem unless atmospheric
problems
CO2 is reduced.
The full effects of various geoengineering
schemes are not well understood.[64] Matthews et al.[65] compared geoengineering to a number of previous
environmental interventions and concluded that "Given our current level of understanding of the climate system, it is
likely that the result of at least some geoengineering efforts would follow previous ecological examples where
increased human intervention has led to an overall increase in negative environmental consequences."
Performance of the systems may become ineffective, unpredictable or unstable as a result of external events, such as
volcanic eruptions, phytoplankton blooms, El Niño, solar flares, etc., potentially leading to profound and
unpredictable disruption to the climate system.
It may be difficult to predict the effectiveness of projects,[66] with models of techniques giving widely varying
results.[67] In the instances of systems which involve tipping points, this may result in irreversible effects. Climate
modelling is far from an exact science even when applied to comparatively well-understood natural climate systems,
and it is made more complex by the need to understand novel and unnatural processes which by definition lack
relevant observation data.[68]

Side effects
The techniques themselves may cause significant foreseen or unforeseen harm. For example, the use of reflective
balloons may result in significant litter,[69] which may be harmful to wildlife.
Ozone depletion is a risk of some geoengineering techniques, notably those involving sulfur delivery into the
stratosphere.[70]
The active nature of geoengineering may in some cases create a clear division between winners and losers. Most of
the proposed interventions are regional, such as albedo modification in the Arctic. Necessarily, such interventions
compel those in the affected regions to tolerate the effects of geoengineering for the supposed benefit of the global
climate.[71]
Geoengineering 526

There may be unintended climatic consequences, such as changes to the hydrological cycle[72] including droughts[73]
or floods, caused by the geoengineering techniques, but possibly not predicted by the models used to plan them.[74]
Such effects may be cumulative or chaotic in nature, making prediction and control very difficult.[75]

Unreliable systems
The performance of the interventions may be inconsistent due to mechanical failure, non-availability of consumables
or funding problems.
The geoengineering techniques would, in many instances, be vulnerable to being switched off or deliberately
destroyed. As examples, cloud making ships could be switched off or sunk and space mirrors could be tilted to make
them useless. Anyone capable of exerting such power may seek to abuse it for commercial gain, military advantage
or simple terrorism.

Weaponisation
Geoengineering research began as a war tactic in the 1940s for the US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.[49]
. During the Vietnam War, the US used geoengineering to flood certain areas. Then in 1976, 85 countries signed the
U.N. Convention on the Prohibition of Military of Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification
Techniques.[56]
The Environmental Modification Convention generally prohibits weaponising geoengineering techniques. However,
this does not eliminate the risk. Geoengineering techniques may serve as weapons of mass destruction, creating
droughts or famines designed to destroy or disable an enemy.[76] They could also be used simply to make battlefield
conditions more favourable to one side or the other in a war[77] (such as in Operation Popeye). For example,
laser-guided weapons are confounded by clouds, and thus switching off cloud machines would favour forces using
such weapons, and switching them on would favour ground forces defending against them.[78]
Whilst laws or treaties may prevent the manipulation of the climate as a weapon of war,[79] it could be argued that
geoengineering is itself a manipulation, and thus destroying or disabling the geoengineering structures is not
prohibited. A new legal framework may be necessary in the event that large-scale geoengineering becomes
established.
Carnegie’s Ken Caldeira said, "It will make it harder to achieve broad consensus on developing and governing these
technologies if there is suspicion that gaining military advantage is an underlying motivation for its
development..."[80]

Effect on sunlight, sky and clouds


Managing solar radiation using aerosols or cloud cover will change the ratio between direct and indirect solar
radiation. This may affect plant life[81] and solar energy.[82] There will be a significant effect on the appearance of
the sky from aerosol projects, notably a hazing of blue skies and a change in the appearance of sunsets.[83] Aerosols
may affect the formation of clouds, especially cirrus clouds.[84]

Moral hazard
The existence of such techniques may reduce the political and social impetus to reduce carbon emissions.[85]
Other criticism comes from those who see geoengineering projects as reacting to the symptoms of global warming
rather than addressing the real causes of climate change. Because geoengineering is a form of controlling the risks
associated with global warming, it leads to a moral hazard problem. The problem is that knowledge that
geoengineering is possible could lead to climate impacts seeming less fearsome, which could in turn lead to a weaker
commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.[86]
Geoengineering 527

Lack of global control


Geoengineering opens up various political and economic issues. David Keith argues that the cost of geoengineering
the Earth is within the realm of small countries, large corporations, or even very wealthy individuals.[87] Steve
Rayner agrees that not all geoengineering possibilities are expensive, and that some, such as ocean iron fertilisation,
are within the reach of very wealthy individuals, calling them a "Greenfinger" (after the fictional Goldfinger).[88] [89]
David Victor suggests that geoengineering is within the reach of any individual who has a small fraction of the bank
account of Bill Gates, who takes it upon him or her self to be the "self-appointed protector of the planet".[90]
This effectively eliminates any control over who gets to decide when to cool the Earth and how often this should be
done.[87] The resulting power would be enormous, and could not necessarily be readily controlled by legal, political
or regulatory systems.[88] These legal and regulatory systems may themselves be far less powerful than the
geoengineers controlling the climate become.
It is quite feasible for carbon offsetting firms to set up unregulated, unsupervised and dangerous geoengineering
projects. This may be done in order to sell carbon credits to individuals and firms.
Geoengineering schemes have the potential to cause significant environmental damage, and may even end up
releasing further greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.[91] Opposition to some early schemes has been intense, with
respected environmental groups campaigning against them.[92]

Rapid warming if stopped


If solar radiation management were to abruptly stop, the climate would rapidly warm.[93] This would cause a sudden
rise in global temperatures towards levels which would have existed without the use of the geoengineering
technique. The rapid rise in temperature may lead to more severe consequences than a gradual rise of the same
magnitude.[93]

Implementation issues
There is no general consensus that geoengineering is safe, appropriate or effective, for the reasons listed above. The
issue of moral hazard means that many environmental groups and campaigners are reluctant to advocate
geoengineering for fear of reducing the imperative to cut greenhouse gas emissions.[94] Other environmentalists see
calls for geoengineering as part of an explicit strategy to delay emissions reductions on the part of those with
connections to coal and oil industries.[95]
All proposed geoengineering techniques require implementation on a relatively large scale, in order to make a
significant difference to the Earth's climate. The least costly schemes are budgeted at a cost of millions,[96] with
many more complex schemes such as space sunshade costing far more.
Many techniques, again such as space sunshade, require a complex technical development process before they are
ready to be implemented. There is no clear institutional mechanism for handling this research and development
process. As a result, many promising techniques do not have the engineering development or experimental evidence
to determine their feasibility or efficacy at present.
Once a technique has been developed and tested, its implementation is still likely to be difficult. Climate change is
by nature a global problem, and therefore no one institution, company or government is responsible for it. The
substantial costs of most geoengineering techniques therefore cannot currently be apportioned. Roll-out of such
technologies is therefore likely to be delayed until these issues can be resolved. A notable exception is the use of
small albedo manipulation projects, known as cool roof, in which the colour of roofing or paving surfaces can be
manipulated to reflect solar radiation back into space. These can be, and are, implemented by individuals, companies
and governments without controversy.[97]
Due to the radical changes caused by geoengineering interventions, legal issues are also an impediment to
implementation. The changes resulting from geoengineering necessarily benefit some people and disadvantage
Geoengineering 528

others. There may therefore be legal challenges to the implementation of geoengineering techniques by those
adversely affected by them.[98]

Evaluation of geoengineering
Few field experiments in geoengineering have been carried out. Most of what is known about the suggested
techniques is based on small-scale trials and from simulations of global climate models and other computer
modelling techniques. Some geoengineering schemes employ methods that have analogues in natural phenomena
such as stratospheric sulfur aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei. As such, studies about the efficacy of these
schemes can draw on information already available from other research, such as that following the 1991 eruption of
Mount Pinatubo. However, comparative evaluation of the relative merits of each technology is complicated,
especially given modelling uncertainties and the early stage of engineering development of many geoengineering
schemes.[99]
In a 2009 review study, Lenton and Vaughan evaluated a range of geoengineering schemes from those that sequester
CO2 from the atmosphere and decrease longwave radiation trapping, to those that decrease the Earth's receipt of
shortwave radiation.[11] In order to permit a comparison of disparate techniques, they used a common evaluation for
each scheme based on its effect on net radiative forcing. As such, the review examined the scientific plausibility of
schemes rather than the practical considerations such as engineering feasibility or economic cost. Lenton and
Vaughan found that "[air] capture and storage shows the greatest potential, combined with afforestation,
reforestation and bio-char production", and noted that "other suggestions that have received considerable media
attention, in particular “ocean pipes” appear to be ineffective".[11] They concluded that "[climate] geoengineering is
best considered as a potential complement to the mitigation of CO2 emissions, rather than as an alternative to it".[11]
Reports into geoengineering have also been published in the United Kingdom by the Institution of Mechanical
Engineers[12] and the Royal Society.[13] The IMechE report examined a small subset of proposed schemes (air
capture, urban albedo and algal-based CO2 capture schemes), and its main conclusions were that geoengineering
should be researched and trialled at the small scale alongside a wider decarbonisation of the economy.[12]
The Royal Society review examined a wide range of geoengineering schemes and evaluated them in terms of
effectiveness, affordability, timeliness and safety (assigning qualitative estimates in each assessment). Similarly to
Lenton and Vaughan,[11] the report divided schemes into "carbon dioxide removal" (CDR) and "solar radiation
management" (SRM) approaches that respectively address longwave and shortwave radiation. The key
recommendations of the report were that "Parties to the UNFCCC should make increased efforts towards mitigating
and adapting to climate change, and in particular to agreeing to global emissions reductions", and that "[nothing]
now known about geoengineering options gives any reason to diminish these efforts".[13] Nonetheless, the report also
recommended that "research and development of geoengineering options should be undertaken to investigate
whether low risk methods can be made available if it becomes necessary to reduce the rate of warming this
century".[13]
Geoengineering 529

References
[1] Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base (http:/ / books. nap. edu/ openbook.
php?record_id=1605& page=433) (1992), Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP)
[2] IPCC (2007). C. Mitigation in the short and medium term (until 2030). In (book section): Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change
2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B.
Metz et al. (eds.)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ spmsspm-c. html). Print version: Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880114. . Retrieved 2010-05-15.
[3] "Mitigation, Adaptation and Geoengineering" (http:/ / www. imeche. org/ about/ keythemes/ environment/ Climate+ Change/ MAG).
Institution of Mechanical Engineers. 2009. . Retrieved 13 December 2009.
[4] Crutzen, P. J. (2006). "Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution to Resolve a Policy Dilemma?" (http:/ / www.
springerlink. com/ content/ t1vn75m458373h63/ fulltext. pdf). Climatic Change 77: 211–220. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9101-y. .
[5] Fearnside, P. (1999). "Forests and global warming mitigation in Brazil: opportunities in the Brazilian forest sector for responses to global
warming under the “clean development mechanism”". Biomass and Bioenergy 16 (3): 171–189. doi:10.1016/S0961-9534(98)00071-3.
[6] "Cool Roofs and Title 24" (http:/ / www. energy. ca. gov/ title24/ coolroofs/ ). The California Energy Commission. . Retrieved 2009-02-25.
[7] Boyd, P.W.; et al. (2007). "Mesoscale Iron Enrichment Experiments 1993–2005: Synthesis and Future Directions". Science 315 (5812):
612–617. doi:10.1126/science.1131669. PMID 17272712.
[8] Izrael, Y. A.; Zakharov, V. M.; Petrov, N. N.; Ryaboshapko, A. G.; Ivanov, V. N.; Savchenko, A. V.; Andreev, Y. V.; Puzov, Y. A. et al.
(2009). "Field experiment on studying solar radiation passing through aerosol layers". Russian Meteorology and Hydrology 34: 265.
doi:10.3103/S106837390905001X.
[9] "Geoengineering" (http:/ / www. irgc. org/ geoengineering). International Risk Governance Council. 2009. . Retrieved 2009-10-07.
[10] Wigley, T. M. L. (Oct 2006). "A combined mitigation/geoengineering approach to climate stabilization". Science 314 (5798): 452–454.
doi:10.1126/science.1131728. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 16973840.
[11] Lenton, T.M.; Vaughan, N.E. (2009). "The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options" (http:/ / www.
atmos-chem-phys. net/ 9/ 5539/ 2009/ acp-9-5539-2009. html). Atmos. Chem. Phys. 9 (15): 5539–5561. doi:10.5194/acp-9-5539-2009. .
[12] "Geoengineering - Giving us time to act?" (http:/ / www. imeche. org/ Libraries/ Key_Themes/ IMechEGeoengineeringReport. sflb. ashx). I
Mech E. . Retrieved 2011-03-12.
[13] "Geoengineering the climate" (http:/ / royalsociety. org/ displaypagedoc. asp?id=35094). Royal Society. . Retrieved 2009-09-02.
[14] "a controversial field known as geoengineering, which means rearranging the Earth's environment on a large scale to suit human needs and
promote habitability" How to Cool a Planet (Maybe) (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2006/ 06/ 27/ science/ earth/ 27cool.
html?ex=1151985600& en=ca9e39a26d7e4ece& ei=5065& partner=MYWAY) New York Times - June 27, 2006
[15] "UC Berkeley Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering" (http:/ / www. ce. berkeley. edu/ geo/ index. php). . Retrieved
2007-05-05.
[16] Corbett, P., 2009, Petroleum Geoengineering - Integration of Static and Dynamic models, Society of Exploration Geophysicists/European
Association of Geoscientist and Engineers,100p, ISBN 978-1-56080-153-5
[17] Schelling, T. C. (1996). "The economic diplomacy of geoengineering". Climatic Change 33: 303–307. doi:10.1007/BF00142578.
[18] Lenton, T. M.; Held, H.; Kriegler, E.; Hall, J. W.; Lucht, W.; Rahmstorf, S.; Schellnhuber, H. J. (Feb 2008). "Tipping elements in the Earth's
climate system" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=18258748) (Free full text). Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences 105 (6): 1786–1793. doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105. PMC 2538841. PMID 18258748. .
[19] "Workshop on managing solar radiation" (http:/ / event. arc. nasa. gov/ main/ home/ reports/ SolarRadiationCP. pdf). NASA. April 2007. .
Retrieved 2009-05-23.
[20] http:/ / royalsociety. org/ news. asp?id=8085
[21] "Hot ideas for cooling the planet" (http:/ / www. imeche. org/ about/ keythemes/ environment/ Climate+ Change/ Cooling+ the+ Planet+
competition/ Hot+ Ideas+ for+ Cooling+ the+ Planet. htm). IMechE. . Retrieved 2009-05-23.
[22] "Example geoengineering methods" (http:/ / www. imeche. org/ about/ keythemes/ environment/ Climate+ Change/ Cooling+ the+ Planet+
competition/ Geo-engineering+ methods. htm). IMechE. . Retrieved 2009-05-23.
[23] "Geo-engineering research" (http:/ / www. parliament. uk/ documents/ upload/ postpn327. pdf). Postnote. Parliamentary Office of Science
and Technology. March 2009. . Retrieved 2009-05-23.
[24] http:/ / climateresponsefund. org/ index. php?option=com_content& view=article& id=137& Itemid=81
[25] Adam, David (Monday 1 September 2008). "Extreme and risky action the only way to tackle global warming, say scientists" (http:/ / www.
guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2008/ sep/ 01/ climatechange. scienceofclimatechange2). Guardian Newspaper (London). . Retrieved
2009-05-23.
[26] Parr, Doug (1/9/8). "Geo-engineering is no solution to climate change" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2008/ sep/ 01/
climatechange. scienceofclimatechange1). Guardian Newspaper (London). . Retrieved 2009-05-23.
[27] http:/ / www. 21stcenturychallenges. org/ focus/ geo-engineering/
[28] La temperature grimpe-documentary (http:/ / www. arte. tv/ fr/ histoire-societe/ Rechauffement-climatique/ A-l-antenne/ 1922676. html)
[29] http:/ / www. grida. no/ publications/ other/ ipcc_tar/ ?src=/ CLIMATE/ IPCC_TAR/ wg3/ 176. htm
[30] http:/ / thehardlook. typepad. com/ thehardlook/ files/ schnare_supplemental_testimony_a_framework_for_geoengineering. pdf
Geoengineering 530

[31] Evans, J.; Stride, E.; Edirisinghe, M.; Andrews, D.; Simons, R. (2010). "Can oceanic foams limit global warming?". Climate Research 42
(2): 155–160. doi:10.3354/cr00885.
[32] Mitchell, D. L.; Finnegan, W. (2009). "Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming". Environmental Research Letters 4 (4):
045102. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045102.
[33] http:/ / www. cleverclimate. org/ climate/ 25/ motivation/
[34] Zimov, S. A., et al. (2006), CLIMATE CHANGE: Permafrost and the Global Carbon Budget, Science, 312(5780), 1612-1613.
[35] US Patent Application No. 20090177569, titled: “Water alteration structure risk management or ecological alteration management systems
and methods” US Patent Application No. 20090175685, titled: “Water alteration structure movement method and system” US Patent
Application No. 20090173801, titled: “Water alteration structure and system having below surface valves or wave reflectors” US Patent
Application No. 20090173404, titled: “Water alteration structure and system” US Patent Application No. 20090173386
[36] Vergano, Dan (2009-07-15). "Hurricane-calming technology? Bill Gates has a plan" (http:/ / www. usatoday. com/ weather/ research/
2009-07-15-gates-hurricanes_N. htm). USA Today. . Retrieved 2009-07-23.
[37] http:/ / www. energybulletin. net/ node/ 10322
[38] Connor, Steve (2008-09-23). "The methane time bomb" (http:/ / www. independent. co. uk/ environment/ climate-change/
exclusive-the-methane-time-bomb-938932. html). The Independent (London). . Retrieved 2010-03-30.
[39] Highfield, Roger (2007-03-16). "Arctic ice hits 'tipping point'" (http:/ / www. telegraph. co. uk/ scienceandtechnology/ science/
sciencenews/ 3352065/ Arctic-ice-hits-'tipping-point'. html). The Daily Telegraph (London). . Retrieved 2010-03-30.
[40] http:/ / researchpages. net/ ESMG/ people/ tim-lenton/ tipping-points/
[41] Jha, Alok (2006-09-04). "Energy review ignores climate change 'tipping point'" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2006/ sep/ 04/
greenpolitics. science). The Guardian (London). . Retrieved 2010-03-30.
[42] http:/ / cbs2. com/ national/ Global. Warming. Paris. 2. 279083. html
[43] Brown, Paul (2006-10-18). "How close is runaway climate change?" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2006/ oct/ 18/
bookextracts. books). The Guardian (London). . Retrieved 2010-03-30.
[44] http:/ / ipsnews. net/ news. asp?idnews=42662
[45] Arthur, Charles (2001-01-23). "Global warming now 'unstoppable', scientists warn" (http:/ / www. independent. co. uk/ news/ science/
global-warming-now-unstoppable-scientists-warn-702979. html). The Independent (London). . Retrieved 2010-03-30.
[46] http:/ / unfccc. int/ resource/ conv/ conv_005. html
[47] http:/ / www. ornl. gov/ sci/ roofs+ walls/ facts/ CoolCalcEnergy. htm
[48] Bodansky, D. (1996) May we engineer the climate? Climatic Change 33: 309-321
[49] Victor, D. G., M. G. Morgan, J. Apt, J. Steinbruner, K. Ricke (2009) The Geoengineering Option: A last resort against global warming?
Foreign Affairs March/April 2009
[50] Michaelson, J. (1998) ‘Geoengineering: a climate change Manhattan project’. Stanford Environmental Law Journal, Stanford CA, January
1998
[51] Gardiner, S. M. Is “Arming the Future” with geoengineering really the lesser evil? Some doubts about the ethics of intentionally
manipulating the climate system in Gardiner, S., S. Caney, D. Jamieson & H. Shue (eds) Climate Ethics: Essential Readings. Oxford
University Press, 2010, 284-314
[52] Appell, David (2008-12-12). "Let's get real on the environment" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ commentisfree/ cifamerica/ 2008/ dec/ 12/
environment-climate-change-poznan). The Guardian (London). . Retrieved 2010-03-30.
[53] Caldeira, Ken (2007-10-24). "How to Cool the Globe" (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2007/ 10/ 24/ opinion/ 24caldiera. html?_r=2&
ref=opinion& oref=slogin). The New York Times. . Retrieved 2010-03-30.
[54] Adam, David (2008-09-01). "Extreme and risky action the only way to tackle global warming, say scientists" (http:/ / www. guardian. co.
uk/ environment/ 2008/ sep/ 01/ climatechange. scienceofclimatechange2). The Guardian (London). . Retrieved 2010-03-30.
[55] http:/ / www. worldchanging. com/ archives/ 009784. html
[56] Robock, A., A. Marquardt, B. Kravitz, and G. Stenchikov (2009). Benefits, Risks, and costs of stratospheric geoengineering, Geophysical
Research Letters, 36, D19703, doi:10.1029/2009GL039209
[57] Bengtsson, L. (2006) ‘Geo-engineering to confine climate change: is it at all feasible?’ Climatic Change 77: 229-234
[58] Barrett, S (2007) Why cooperate? The incentive to supply global public goods. Oxford University Press, Oxford
[59] "AMS Policy Statement on Geoengineering the Climate System" (http:/ / www. ametsoc. org/ policy/
2009geoengineeringclimate_amsstatement. pdf). American Meteorological Society. . Retrieved 2009-07-22.
[60] http:/ / www. worldchanging. com/ archives/ 008091. html
[61] http:/ / features. csmonitor. com/ environment/ 2008/ 07/ 16/ can-we-engineer-a-cooler-earth/
[62] Seasonal rhythms of net primary production and particulate organic carbon flux to depth describe the efficiency of biological pump in the
global ocean", Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 112, C10011, doi:10.1029/2006JC003706
[63] http:/ / infohost. nmt. edu/ ~chem/ wingenter/ Wingenter_PeECE_III_GRL_2007. pdf
[64] http:/ / news. mongabay. com/ 2007/ 0627-planktos. html
[65] Matthews, H. D.; Turner, S. E. (2009). "Of mongooses and mitigation: ecological analogues to geoengineering". Environmental Research
Letters 4 (4): 045105. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045105.
[66] Keith Bower et al., 2006 Computational assessment of a proposed technique for global warming mitigation via albedo-enhancement of
marine stratocumulus clouds. Atmos. Res., vol. 82, no. 1-2, 2006, pp. 328-336
Geoengineering 531

[67] http:/ / royalsociety. org/ page. asp?tip=1& id=6232


[68] Bentley, Molly (2006-03-02). "Guns and sunshades to rescue climate" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ sci/ tech/ 4762720. stm). BBC News.
. Retrieved 2010-03-30.
[69] http:/ / books. nap. edu/ openbook. php?record_id=1605& page=824
[70] The Sensitivity of Polar Ozone Depletion to Proposed Geoengineering Schemes", Science, vol. 320, no. 5880, 30 May 2008, pp. 1201-1204,
doi:10.1126/science.1153966
[71] http:/ / www. newscientist. com/ article/ dn12397
[72] http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com/ releases/ 2008/ 05/ 080527155519. htm
[73] I. M. Held et al., "Simulation of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 102,
no. 50, pp. 17891–17896, doi:10.1073/pnas.0509057102. Available online at: http:/ / climate. envsci. rutgers. edu/ pdf/ 2008JD010050small.
pdf
[74] Keith Bower et al., 2006 Computational assessment of a proposed technique for global warming mitigation via albedo-enhancement of
marine stratocumulus clouds. Atmos. Res., vol. 82, no. 1-2, 2006, pp. 328–336
[75] Robock, Alan (May / June 2008). "20 reasons why geoengineering may be a bad idea " (http:/ / thebulletin. metapress. com/ content/
r567g4063g1h562l/ ?p=a537203c8e7b4be3b0cd5cd51fa30b61& pi=5). "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" (http:/ / www. thebulletin. org).
doi:10.2968/064002006. . Retrieved 2009-08-04.
[76] http:/ / www. foreignpolicy. com/ story/ cms. php?story_id=4146
[77] http:/ / www. fas. org/ spp/ military/ docops/ usaf/ 2025/ v3c15/ v3c15-1. htm
[78] http:/ / www. fas. org/ man/ dod-101/ sys/ smart/ lgb. htm
[79] http:/ / www. state. gov/ t/ ac/ trt/ 4783. htm
[80] Caldiera, Ken; Various (March 18, 2009). "DARPA and Geoengineering" (http:/ / groups. google. com/ group/ climateintervention/
browse_thread/ thread/ 60f448608e209134?pli=1). Geoengineering Google group. . Retrieved 2009-03-21.
[81] L. Gu et al., "Responses of Net Ecosystem Exchanges of Carbon Dioxide to Changes in Cloudiness: Results from Two North American
Deciduous Forests", Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 104, no. 31, pp. 421–31, 434 (1999); L. Gu et al., "Advantages of Diffuse
Radiation for Terrestrial Ecosystem Productivity", Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 107, (2002); L. Gu et al., "Response of a Deciduous
Forest to the Mount Pinatubo Eruption: Enhanced Photosynthesis", Science, vol. 299, pp. 2,035–38 (2003)
[82] Balan Govindasamy and Ken Caldeira, "Geoengineering Earth's Radiation Balance to Mitigate CO2-Induced Climate Change", Geophysical
Research Letters, vol. 27, pp. 2,141–44 (2000). For the response of solar power systems, see Michael C. MacCracken, "Geoengineering:
Worthy of Cautious Evaluation?" Climatic Change, vol. 77, pp. 235–43 (2006)
[83] http:/ / www. nasa. gov/ centers/ langley/ news/ researchernews/ rn_robockfeature. html
[84] K. Sassen et al., ";The 5–6 December 1991 FIRE IFO II Jet Stream Cirrus Case Study: Possible Influences of Volcanic Aerosols", Journal of
Atmospheric Science, vol. 52, pp. 97–123 (1993)
[85] David Adam, "Extreme and risky action the only way to tackle global warming, say scientists", Guardian, 1 September 2008. Available
online at: http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2008/sep/01/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange2
[86] David Keith. "A surprising idea for solving climate change (lecture at TED conference)" (http:/ / www. ted. com/ index. php/ talks/ view/ id/
192). . Retrieved 2008-04-06.
[87] David Keith. "Engineering the Planet" (http:/ / www. ucalgary. ca/ ~keith/ papers/ 89. Keith. EngineeringThePlanet. p. pdf) (PDF). pp.
"3–4,8". . Retrieved 2008-04-08.
[88] BBC News. http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ nol/ shared/ spl/ hi/ programmes/ analysis/ transcripts/ 31_07_08. txt. Retrieved 2010-03-30.
[89] James Randerson (2008-11-18). "Geoengineering 'no substitute' for climate targets, UK minister warns" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/
environment/ 2008/ nov/ 18/ climatechange-greentech). The Guardian (London: Guardian News and Media Limited). .
[90] David G. Victor (2008). "On the regulation of geoengineering". Oxford Review of Economic Policy (Oxford University Press) 24 (2):
322–336. doi:10.1093/oxrep/grn018.
[91] http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ science/ articles/ 2007/ 11/ 09/ 2085584. htm
[92] http:/ / www. worldwildlife. org/ who/ media/ press/ 2007/ WWFPresitem973. html
[93] Ross, A.; Damon Matthews, H. (2009). "Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change". Environmental Research Letters 4 (4):
045103. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045103.
[94] "Geo-Engineering - a Moral Hazard" (http:/ / www. celsias. com/ article/ geo-engineering-a-moral-hazard/ ). celsias.com. 14 November
2007. . Retrieved 9 September 2010.
[95] http:/ / www. worldchanging. com/ archives/ / 009753. html
[96] http:/ / docs. google. com/ gview?attid=0. 1& thid=11e473ed2477ae05& a=v& pli=1
[97] http:/ / www. consumerenergycenter. org/ coolroof/
[98] http:/ / ieet. org/ index. php/ IEET/ more/ 2094/
[99] http:/ / www. imeche. org/ media/ Public+ Affairs/ geoenginq. htm

• Launder, Brian; Thompson, J. Michael T., eds (December 2009). Geo-Engineering Climate Change:
Environmental Necessity or Pandora’s Box?. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-198035.
• Eli Kintisch (2010). Hack the Planet: Science's Best Hope, or Worst Nightmare, for Averting Climate
Catastrophe. ISBN 978-0470524268.
Geoengineering 532

• Jeff Goodell (2010). How to Cool the Planet: Geoengineering and the Audacious Quest to Fix Earth’s Climate.
ISBN 978-0618990610.
• Morton, Oliver (May 10, 2007). "Climate change: Is this what it takes to save the world?". Nature 447 (7141):
132–136. doi:10.1038/447132a. PMID 17495899. --Abstract only, full article requires payment.
• James Rodger Fleming (September 15, 2010). Fixing the Sky: The Checkered History of Weather and Climate
Control. Columbia University Press. ISBN 978-0231144124.

External links
• What the UN ban on geoengineering really means (http://www.newscientist.com/article/
dn19660-what-the-un-ban-on-geoengineering-really-means.html) November 1, 2010 by Fred Pearce of New
Scientist
• Geoengineering sparks international ban, first-ever congressional report (http://www.washingtonpost.com/
wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/29/AR2010102906361.html) Juliet Eilperin Washington Post October 30,
2010
• Engineering the Climate : Research Needs and Strategies for International Coordination October 2010 report
(http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/nation/pdfs/Geongineeringreport.pdf) from the U.S. House of
Representatives
• Threat of global warming sparks U.S. interest in geoengineering (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/
content/article/2010/10/03/AR2010100303437.html) by Juliet Eilperin of the Washington Post October 3,
2010
• Re-Engineering the Earth (http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/07/re-engineering-the-earth/
7552/) by Graeme Wood of The Atlantic , July 2009
• Geoengineering Retrospective (http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/008364.html) Overview of articles
on geoengineering by Julia Levitt, Worldchanging, August 2008
• Geo-engineering website, describing current methods/proposals done to revert climate change by geo-engineering
(http://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/), by Sam Carana
• Geoengineering links (http://www.geocrisis.com/cpe_geoengineering_menu.htm), annotated list, 2006?
• "The Geoengineering Gambit" (http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/24157/), Technology Review, Jan.
2010
• 10 Ideas That Are Changing The World: 6.Geoengineering (http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/
0,28804,1720049_1720050_1721653,00.html) Time Magazine, March 2008
• Geo-engineering in the Southern Ocean (http://orgprints.org/15528/01/15528.pdf), by John Paull, Australian
National University, 2009
• 5 ways to save the earth (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/6298507.stm), BBC documentary about
geo-engineering, 20 February 2007
• Climate Engineering Is Doable, as Long as We Never Stop (http://www.wired.com/science/planetearth/news/
2007/07/geoengineering) Wired Magazine, July 2007
• "Geoengineering: A Climate Change Manhattan Project" (http://www.metatronics.net/lit/geo2.html) by Jay
Michaelson, Stanford Environmental Law Journal, 1998
• Terraforming Earth IV: The Question of Methane (http://www.openthefuture.com/wcarchive/2005/08/
terraforming_earth_iv_the_ques.html) August 11, 2005
• A Debate on Geoengineering: Vandana Shiva vs. Gwynne Dyer (http://www.democracynow.org/2010/7/8/
a_debate_on_geoengineering_vandana_shiva) - video report by Democracy Now!
• Geoengineering: 'A Bad Idea Whose Time Has Come' (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.
php?storyId=127245606) discussion on NPR
• We need birth control, not geoengineering (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/apr/06/
geoengineering-carbon-emissions) April 6, 2010
Geoengineering 533

• Bill Gates' cloud-whitening trials 'a dangerous experiment' (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/


may/14/bill-gates-cloud-whitening-dangerous) May 14, 2010 regarding Bill Gates
• The powerful coalition that wants to engineer the world's climate: Businessmen, scientists and right-wing
thinktanks are joining forces to promote 'geo-engineering' ideas to cool the planet's climate (http://www.
guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/sep/13/geoengineering-coalition-world-climate) September 13, 2010 Clive
Hamilton

Carbon sink
A carbon sink is a natural or artificial reservoir that accumulates and stores some carbon-containing chemical
compound for an indefinite period. The process by which carbon sinks remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the
atmosphere is known as carbon sequestration. Public awareness of the significance of CO2 sinks has grown since
passage of the Kyoto Protocol, which promotes their use as a form of carbon offset.
The main natural sinks are:
• Absorption of carbon dioxide by the oceans via physicochemical and biological processes
• Photosynthesis by terrestrial plants
Natural sinks are typically much larger than artificial sinks. The main artificial sinks are:
• Landfills
• Carbon capture and storage proposals
Carbon sources include:
• Fossil fuels
• Farmland; there are proposals for improvements in farming practices to reverse this.

Kyoto Protocol
Because growing vegetation absorbs carbon dioxide, the Kyoto Protocol allows Annex I countries with large areas of
growing forests to issue Removal Units to recognise the sequestration of carbon. The additional units make it easier
for them to achieve their target emission levels.
Some countries seek to trade emission rights in carbon emission markets, purchasing the unused carbon emission
allowances of other countries. If overall limits on greenhouse gas emission are put into place, cap and trade market
mechanisms are purported to find cost-effective ways to reduce emissions.[1] There is as yet no carbon audit regime
for all such markets globally, and none is specified in the Kyoto Protocol. National carbon emissions are
self-declared.
In the Clean Development Mechanism, only afforestation and reforestation are eligible to produce certified emission
reductions (CERs) in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012). Forest conservation activities
or activities avoiding deforestation, which would result in emission reduction through the conservation of existing
carbon stocks, are not eligible at this time.[2] Also, agricultural carbon sequestration is not possible yet.[3]

Storage in terrestrial and marine environments

Soils
Soils represent a short to long-term carbon storage medium, and contain more carbon than all terrestrial vegetation
and the atmosphere combined.[4] [5] Plant litter and other biomass accumulates as organic matter in soils, and is
degraded by chemical weathering and biological degradation. More recalcitrant organic carbon polymers such as
cellulose, hemi-cellulose, lignin, aliphatic compounds, waxes and terpenoids are collectively retained as humus.[6]
Carbon sink 534

Organic matter tends to accumulate in litter and soils of colder regions such as the boreal forests of North America
and the Taiga of Russia. Leaf litter and humus are rapidly oxidized and poorly retained in sub-tropical and tropical
climate conditions due to high temperatures and extensive leaching by rainfall. Areas where shifting cultivation or
slash and burn agriculture are practiced are generally only fertile for 2–3 years before they are abandoned. These
tropical jungles are similar to coral reefs in that they are highly efficient at conserving and circulating necessary
nutrients, which explains their lushness in a nutrient desert. Much organic carbon retained in many agricultural areas
worldwide has been severely depleted due to intensive farming practices.
Grasslands contribute to soil organic matter, stored mainly in their extensive fibrous root mats. Due in part to the
climactic conditions of these regions (e.g. cooler temperatures and semi-arid to arid conditions), these soils can
accumulate significant quantities of organic matter. This can vary based on rainfall, the length of the winter season,
and the frequency of naturally occurring lightning-induced grass-fires. While these fires release carbon dioxide, they
improve the quality of the grasslands overall, in turn increasing the amount of carbon retained in the retained humic
material. They also deposit carbon directly to the soil in the form of char that does not significantly degrade back to
carbon dioxide.
Forest fires release absorbed carbon back into the atmosphere, as does deforestation due to rapidly increased
oxidation of soil organic matter.
Organic matter in peat bogs undergoes slow anaerobic decomposition below the surface. This process is slow enough
that in many cases the bog grows rapidly and fixes more carbon from the atmosphere than is released. Over time, the
peat grows deeper. Peat bogs inter approximately one-quarter of the carbon stored in land plants and soils.[7]
Under some conditions, forests and peat bogs may become sources of CO2, such as when a forest is flooded by the
construction of a hydroelectric dam. Unless the forests and peat are harvested before flooding, the rotting vegetation
is a source of CO2 and methane comparable in magnitude to the amount of carbon released by a fossil-fuel powered
plant of equivalent power.[8]

Regenerative agriculture
Current agricultural practices lead to carbon loss from soils. It has been suggested that improved farming practices
could return the soils to being a carbon sink. Present worldwide practises of overgrazing are substantially reducing
many grasslands performance as carbon sinks.[9] The Rodale Institute says that Regenerative agriculture, if practiced
on the planet’s 3.5 billion tillable acres, could sequester up to 40% of current CO2 emissions.[10] [11] They claim that
agricultural carbon sequestration has the potential to mitigate global warming. When using biologically based
regenerative practices, this dramatic benefit can be accomplished with no decrease in yields or farmer profits.
Organically managed soils can convert carbon dioxide from a greenhouse gas into a food-producing asset.
In 2006, U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion were estimated at nearly 6.5 billion tons. If a
2,000 (lb/ac)/year sequestration rate was achieved on all 434000000 acres ( km2) of cropland in the United States,
nearly 1.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide would be sequestered per year, mitigating close to one quarter of the
country's total fossil fuel emissions.
Carbon sink 535

Oceans
Oceans are at present CO2 sinks, and
represent the largest active carbon sink
on Earth, absorbing more than a
quarter of the carbon dioxide that
humans put into the air.[12] On longer
timescales they may be both sources
and sinks - during ice ages CO2 levels
decrease to ~180 ppmv, and much of
this is believed to be stored in the
oceans. As ice ages end, CO2 is
released from the oceans and CO2
levels during previous interglacials
have been around ~280 ppmv. This
role as a sink for CO2 is driven by two
processes, the solubility pump and the Air-sea exchange of CO2
biological pump.[13] The former is
primarily a function of differential CO2 solubility in seawater and the thermohaline circulation, while the latter is the
sum of a series of biological processes that transport carbon (in organic and inorganic forms) from the surface
euphotic zone to the ocean's interior. A small fraction of the organic carbon transported by the biological pump to the
seafloor is buried in anoxic conditions under sediments and ultimately forms fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas.

At the present time, approximately one third[14] of human generated emissions are estimated to be entering the
ocean. The solubility pump is the primary mechanism driving this, with the biological pump playing a negligible
role. This stems from the limitation of the biological pump by ambient light and nutrients required by the
phytoplankton that ultimately drive it. Total inorganic carbon is not believed to limit primary production in the
oceans, so its increasing availability in the ocean does not directly affect production (the situation on land is
different, since enhanced atmospheric levels of CO2 essentially "fertilize" land plant growth). However, ocean
acidification by invading anthropogenic CO2 may affect the biological pump by negatively impacting calcifying
organisms such as coccolithophores, foraminiferans and pteropods. Climate change may also affect the biological
pump in the future by warming and stratifying the surface ocean, thus reducing the supply of limiting nutrients to
surface waters.
In January 2009, the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration announced a joint study to determine whether the ocean off the California coast was serving as a
carbon source or a carbon sink. Principal instrumentation for the study will be self-contained CO2 monitors placed
on buoys in the ocean. They will measure the partial pressure of CO2 in the ocean and the atmosphere just above the
water surface.[15]
In February 2009, Science Daily reported that the Southern Indian Ocean is becoming less effective at absorbing
carbon dioxide due to changes to the regions climate which include higher wind speeds.[16]
Carbon sink 536

Enhancing natural sequestration

Forests
Forests are carbon stores, and they are carbon dioxide sinks when they are increasing in density or area. In Canada's
boreal forests as much as 80% of the total carbon is stored in the soils as dead organic matter.[17] A 40-year study of
African, Asian, and South American tropical forests by the University of Leeds, shows tropical forests absorb about
18% of all carbon dioxide added by fossil fuels.[18] Tropical reforestation can mitigate global warming until all
available land has been reforested with mature forests. However, the global cooling effect of carbon sequestration by
forests is partially counterbalanced in that reforestation can decrease the reflection of sunlight (albedo). Mid-to-high
latitude forests have a much lower albedo during snow seasons than flat ground, thus contributing to warming.
Modeling that compares the effects of albedo differences between forests and grasslands suggests that expanding the
land area of forests in temperate zones offers only a temporary cooling benefit.[19] [20] [21] [22]
In the United States in 2004 (the most recent year for which EPA statistics[23] are available), forests sequestered
10.6% (637 teragrams[24] ) of the carbon dioxide released in the United States by the combustion of fossil fuels (coal,
oil and natural gas; 5657 teragrams[25] ). Urban trees sequestered another 1.5% (88 teragrams[24] ). To further reduce
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions by 7%, as stipulated by the Kyoto Protocol, would require the planting of "an area the
size of Texas [8% of the area of Brazil] every 30 years".[26] Carbon offset programs are planting millions of
fast-growing trees per year to reforest tropical lands, for as little as $0.10 per tree; over their typical 40-year lifetime,
one million of these trees will fix 0.9 teragrams of carbon dioxide.[27] In Canada, reducing timber harvesting would
have very little impact on carbon dioxide emissions because of the combination of harvest and stored carbon in
manufactured wood products along with the regrowth of the harvested forests. Additionally, the amount of carbon
released from harvesting is small compared to the amount of carbon lost each year to forest fires and other natural
disturbances.[17]
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that "a sustainable forest management strategy aimed at
maintaining or increasing forest carbon stocks, while producing an annual sustained yield of timber fibre or energy
from the forest, will generate the largest sustained mitigation benefit".[28] Sustainable management practices keep
forests growing at a higher rate over a potentially longer period of time, thus providing net sequestration benefits in
addition to those of unmanaged forests.[29]
Life expectancy of forests varies throughout the world, influenced by tree species, site conditions and natural
disturbance patterns. In some forests carbon may be stored for centuries, while in other forests carbon is released
with frequent stand replacing fires. Forests that are harvested prior to stand replacing events allow for the retention
of carbon in manufactured forest products such as lumber.[30] However, only a portion of the carbon removed from
logged forests ends up as durable goods and buildings. The remainder ends up as sawmill by-products such as pulp,
paper and pallets, which often end with incineration (resulting in carbon release into the atmosphere) at the end of
their lifecycle. For instance, of the 1,692 teragrams of carbon harvested from forests in Oregon and Washington
(U.S) from 1900 to 1992, only 23% is in long-term storage in forest products.[31]

Oceans
One way to increase the carbon sequestration efficiency of the oceans is to add micrometre-sized iron particles in the
form of either hematite (iron oxide) or melanterite (iron sulfate) to certain regions of the ocean. This has the effect of
stimulating growth of plankton. Iron is an important nutrient for phytoplankton, usually made available via
upwelling along the continental shelves, inflows from rivers and streams, as well as deposition of dust suspended in
the atmosphere. Natural sources of ocean iron have been declining in recent decades, contributing to an overall
decline in ocean productivity (NASA, 2003). Yet in the presence of iron nutrients plankton populations quickly
grow, or 'bloom', expanding the base of biomass productivity throughout the region and removing significant
quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere via photosynthesis. A test in 2002 in the Southern Ocean around Antarctica
Carbon sink 537

suggests that between 10,000 and 100,000 carbon atoms are sunk for each iron atom added to the water. More recent
work in Germany (2005) suggests that any biomass carbon in the oceans, whether exported to depth or recycled in
the euphotic zone, represents long-term storage of carbon. This means that application of iron nutrients in select parts
of the oceans, at appropriate scales, could have the combined effect of restoring ocean productivity while at the same
time mitigating the effects of human caused emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.
Because the effect of periodic small scale phytoplankton blooms on ocean ecosystems is unclear, more studies would
be helpful. Phytoplankton have a complex effect on cloud formation via the release of substances such as dimethyl
sulfide (DMS) that are converted to sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, providing cloud condensation nuclei, or
CCN. But the effect of small scale plankton blooms on overall DMS production is unknown.
Other nutrients such as nitrates, phosphates, and silica as well as iron may cause ocean fertilization. There has been
some speculation that using pulses of fertilization (around 20 days in length) may be more effective at getting carbon
to ocean floor than sustained fertilization.[32]
There is some controversy over seeding the oceans with iron however, due to the potential for increased toxic
phytoplankton growth (e.g. "red tide"), declining water quality due to overgrowth, and increasing anoxia in areas
harming other sea-life such as zooplankton, fish, coral, etc.[33] [34]

Soils
Since the 1850s, a large proportion of the world's grasslands have been tilled and converted to croplands, allowing
the rapid oxidation of large quantities of soil organic carbon. However, in the United States in 2004 (the most recent
year for which EPA statistics are available), agricultural soils including pasture land sequestered 0.8% (46
teragrams[24] ) as much carbon as was released in the United States by the combustion of fossil fuels (5988
teragrams[25] ). The annual amount of this sequestration has been gradually increasing since 1998.[24]
Methods that significantly enhance carbon sequestration in soil include no-till farming, residue mulching, cover
cropping, and crop rotation, all of which are more widely used in organic farming than in conventional farming.[35]
[36]
Because only 5% of US farmland currently uses no-till and residue mulching, there is a large potential for carbon
sequestration.[37] Conversion to pastureland, particularly with good management of grazing, can sequester even
more carbon in the soil.
Terra preta, an anthropogenic, high-carbon soil, is also being investigated as a sequestration mechanism. By
pyrolysing biomass, about half of its carbon can be reduced to charcoal, which can persist in the soil for centuries,
and makes a useful soil amendment, especially in tropical soils (biochar or agrichar).[38] [39]

Savanna
Controlled burns on far north Australian savannas can result in an overall carbon sink. One working example is the
West Arnhem Fire Management Agreement, started to bring "strategic fire management across 28,000 km² of
Western Arnhem Land". Deliberately starting controlled burns early in the dry season results in a mosaic of burnt
and unburnt country which reduces the area of burning compared with stronger, late dry season fires. In the early dry
season there are higher moisture levels, cooler temperatures, and lighter wind than later in the dry season; fires tend
to go out overnight. Early controlled burns also results in a smaller proportion of the grass and tree biomass being
burnt.[40] Emission reductions of 256,000 tonnes of CO2 have been made as of 2007.[41]
Carbon sink 538

Artificial sequestration
For carbon to be sequestered artificially (i.e. not using the natural processes of the carbon cycle) it must first be
captured, or it must be significantly delayed or prevented from being re-released into the atmosphere (by
combustion, decay, etc.) from an existing carbon-rich material, by being incorporated into an enduring usage (such
as in construction). Thereafter it can be passively stored or remain productively utilized over time in a variety of
ways.
For example, upon harvesting, wood (as a carbon-rich material) can be immediately burned or otherwise serve as a
fuel, returning its carbon to the atmosphere, or it can be incorporated into construction or a range of other durable
products, thus sequestering its carbon over years or even centuries. One ton of dry wood is equivalent to 1.8 tons of
carbon dioxide.
Indeed, a very carefully designed and durable, energy-efficient and energy-capturing building has the potential to
sequester (in its carbon-rich construction materials), as much as or more carbon than was released by the acquisition
and incorporation of all its materials and than will be released by building-function "energy-imports" during the
structure's (potentially multi-century) existence. Such a structure might be termed "carbon neutral" or even "carbon
negative". Building construction and operation (electricity usage, heating, etc.) are estimated to contribute nearly half
of the annual human-caused carbon additions to the atmosphere.[42]
Natural-gas purification plants often already have to remove carbon dioxide, either to avoid dry ice clogging gas
tankers or to prevent carbon-dioxide concentrations exceeding the 3% maximum permitted on the natural-gas
distribution grid.
Beyond this, one of the most likely early applications of carbon capture is the capture of carbon dioxide from flue
gases at power stations (in the case of coal, this is known as "clean coal"). A typical new 1000 MW coal-fired power
station produces around 6 million tons of carbon dioxide annually. Adding carbon capture to existing plants can add
significantly to the costs of energy production; scrubbing costs aside, a 1000 MW coal plant will require the storage
of about 50 million barrels of carbon dioxide a year. However, scrubbing is relatively affordable when added to new
plants based on coal gasification technology, where it is estimated to raise energy costs for households in the United
States using only coal-fired electricity sources from 10 cents per kW·h to 12 cents.[43]

Carbon capture
Currently, capture of carbon dioxide is performed on a large scale by absorption of carbon dioxide onto various
amine-based solvents. Other techniques are currently being investigated, such as pressure swing adsorption,
temperature swing adsorption, gas separation membranes, and cryogenics. Recent pilot studies include flue capture
and conversion to baking soda and use of algae for conversion to fuel or feed(reference needed).
In coal-fired power stations, the main alternatives to retrofitting amine-based absorbers to existing power stations are
two new technologies: coal gasification combined-cycle and oxy-fuel combustion. Gasification first produces a
"syngas" primarily of hydrogen and carbon monoxide, which is burned, with carbon dioxide filtered from the flue
gas. Oxy-fuel combustion burns the coal in oxygen instead of air, producing only carbon dioxide and water vapour,
which are relatively easily separated. Some of the combustion products must be returned to the combustion chamber,
either before or after separation, otherwise the temperatures would be too high for the turbine.
Another long-term option is carbon capture directly from the air using hydroxides. The air would literally be
scrubbed of its CO2 content. This idea offers an alternative to non-carbon-based fuels for the transportation sector.
Examples of carbon sequestration at coal plants include converting carbon from smokestacks into baking soda,[44]
[45]
and algae-based carbon capture, circumventing storage by converting algae into fuel or feed.[46]
Carbon sink 539

Oceans
Another proposed form of carbon sequestration in the ocean is direct injection. In this method, carbon dioxide is
pumped directly into the water at depth, and expected to form "lakes" of liquid CO2 at the bottom. Experiments
carried out in moderate to deep waters (350–3600 m) indicate that the liquid CO2 reacts to form solid CO2 clathrate
hydrates, which gradually dissolve in the surrounding waters.
This method, too, has potentially dangerous environmental consequences. The carbon dioxide does react with the
water to form carbonic acid, H2CO3; however, most (as much as 99%) remains as dissolved molecular CO2. The
equilibrium would no doubt be quite different under the high pressure conditions in the deep ocean. In addition, if
deep-sea bacterial methanogens that reduce carbon dioxide were to encounter the carbon dioxide sinks, levels of
methane gas may increase, leading to the generation of an even worse greenhouse gas.[47] The resulting
environmental effects on benthic life forms of the bathypelagic, abyssopelagic and hadopelagic zones are unknown.
Even though life appears to be rather sparse in the deep ocean basins, energy and chemical effects in these deep
basins could have far-reaching implications. Much more work is needed here to define the extent of the potential
problems.
Carbon storage in or under oceans may not be compatible with the Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution
by Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter.[48]
An additional method of long-term ocean-based sequestration is to gather crop residue such as corn stalks or excess
hay into large weighted bales of biomass and deposit it in the alluvial fan areas of the deep ocean basin. Dropping
these residues in alluvial fans would cause the residues to be quickly buried in silt on the sea floor, sequestering the
biomass for very long time spans. Alluvial fans exist in all of the world's oceans and seas where river deltas fall off
the edge of the continental shelf such as the Mississippi alluvial fan in the gulf of Mexico and the Nile alluvial fan in
the Mediterranean Sea. A downside, however, would be an increase in aerobic bacteria growth due to the
introduction of biomass, leading to more competition for oxygen resources in the deep sea, similar to the oxygen
minimum zone.

Geological sequestration
The method of geo-sequestration or geological storage involves injecting carbon dioxide directly into underground
geological formations. Declining oil fields, saline aquifers, and unminable coal seams have been suggested as
storage sites. Caverns and old mines that are commonly used to store natural gas are not considered, because of a
lack of storage safety.
CO2 has been injected into declining oil fields for more than 40 years, to increase oil recovery. This option is
attractive because the storage costs are offset by the sale of additional oil that is recovered. Typically, 10-15%
additional recovery of the original oil in place is possible. Further benefits are the existing infrastructure and the
geophysical and geological information about the oil field that is available from the oil exploration. Another benefit
of injecting CO2 into Oil fields is that CO2 is soluble in oil. Dissolving CO2 in oil lowers the viscosity of the oil and
reduces its interfacial tension which increases the oils mobility. All oil fields have a geological barrier preventing
upward migration of oil. As most oil and gas has been in place for millions to tens of millions of years, depleted oil
and gas reservoirs can contain carbon dioxide for millennia. Identified possible problems are the many 'leak'
opportunities provided by old oil wells, the need for high injection pressures and acidification which can damage the
geological barrier. Other disadvantages of old oil fields are their limited geographic distribution and depths, which
require high injection pressures for sequestration. Below a depth of about 1000 m, carbon dioxide is injected as a
supercritical fluid, a material with the density of a liquid, but the viscosity and diffusivity of a gas. Unminable coal
seams can be used to store CO2, because CO2 absorbs to the coal surface, ensuring safe long-term storage. In the
process it releases methane that was previously adsorbed to the coal surface and that may be recovered. Again the
sale of the methane can be used to offset the cost of the CO2 storage. Release or burning of methane would of course
at least partially offset the obtained sequestration result – except when the gas is allowed to escape into the
Carbon sink 540

atmosphere in significant quantities: methane has a higher global warming potential than CO2.
Saline aquifers contain highly mineralized brines and have so far been considered of no benefit to humans except in
a few cases where they have been used for the storage of chemical waste. Their advantages include a large potential
storage volume and relatively common occurrence reducing the distance over which CO2 has to be transported. The
major disadvantage of saline aquifers is that relatively little is known about them compared to oil fields. Another
disadvantage of saline aquifers is that as the salinity of the water increases, less CO2 can be dissolved into aqueous
solution. To keep the cost of storage acceptable the geophysical exploration may be limited, resulting in larger
uncertainty about the structure of a given aquifer. Unlike storage in oil fields or coal beds, no side product will offset
the storage cost. Leakage of CO2 back into the atmosphere may be a problem in saline-aquifer storage. However,
current research shows that several trapping mechanisms immobilize the CO2 underground, reducing the risk of
leakage [references are missing].
A major research project examining the geological sequestration of carbon dioxide is currently being performed at an
oil field at Weyburn in south-eastern Saskatchewan. In the North Sea, Norway's Statoil natural-gas platform Sleipner
strips carbon dioxide out of the natural gas with amine solvents and disposes of this carbon dioxide by geological
sequestration. Sleipner reduces emissions of carbon dioxide by approximately one million tonnes a year. The cost of
geological sequestration is minor relative to the overall running costs. As of April 2005, BP is considering a trial of
large-scale sequestration of carbon dioxide stripped from power plant emissions in the Miller oilfield as its reserves
are depleted.
In October 2007, the Bureau of Economic Geology at The University of Texas at Austin received a 10-year, $38
million subcontract to conduct the first intensively monitored, long-term project in the United States studying the
feasibility of injecting a large volume of CO2 for underground storage.[49] The project is a research program of the
Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (SECARB) [50], funded by the National Energy Technology
Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The SECARB partnership will demonstrate CO2 injection rate
and storage capacity in the Tuscaloosa-Woodbine geologic system that stretches from Texas to Florida. Beginning in
fall 2007, the project will inject CO2 at the rate of one million tons per year, for up to 1.5 years, into brine up to
10000 feet (3000 m) below the land surface near the Cranfield oil field about 15 miles (24 km) east of Natchez,
Mississippi. Experimental equipment will measure the ability of the subsurface to accept and retain CO2.

Mineral sequestration
Mineral sequestration aims to trap carbon in the form of solid carbonate salts. This process occurs slowly in nature
and is responsible for the deposition and accumulation of limestone (calcium carbonate) over geologic time.
Carbonic acid in groundwater slowly reacts with complex silicates to dissolve calcium, magnesium, alkalis and silica
and leave a residue of clay minerals. The dissolved calcium and magnesium react with bicarbonate to precipitate
calcium and magnesium carbonates, a process that organisms use to make shells. When the organisms die, their
shells are deposited as sediment and eventually turn into limestone. Limestones have accumulated over billions of
years of geologic time and contain much of Earth's carbon. Ongoing research aims to speed up similar reactions
involving alkali carbonates.[51]
One proposed reaction is that of the olivine-rich rock dunite, or its hydrated equivalent serpentinite with carbon
dioxide to form the carbonate mineral magnesite, plus silica and iron oxide (magnetite).
Serpentinite sequestration is favored because of the non-toxic and stable nature of magnesium carbonate. The ideal
reactions involve the magnesium endmember components of the olivine (reaction 1) or serpentine (reaction 2), the
latter derived from earlier olivine by hydration and silicification (reaction 3). The presence of iron in the olivine or
serpentine reduces the efficiency of sequestration, since the iron components of these minerals break down to iron
oxide and silica (reaction 4).
Carbon sink 541

Serpentinite reactions
Reaction 1
Mg-Olivine + Carbon dioxide → Magnesite + Silica
Mg2SiO4 + 2CO2 → 2MgCO3 + SiO2 + H2O
Reaction 2
Serpentine + carbon dioxide → Magnesite + silica + water
Mg3[Si2O5(OH)4] + 3CO2 → 3MgCO3 + 2SiO2 + 2H2O
Reaction 3
Mg-Olivine + Water + Silica → Serpentine
3Mg2SiO4 + 2SiO2 + 4H2O → 2Mg3[Si2O5(OH)4
Reaction 4
Fe-Olivine + Water → Magnetite + Silica + Hydrogen
3Fe2SiO4 + 2H2O → 2Fe3O4 + 3SiO2 + 2H2

Zeolitic imidazolate frameworks


Zeolitic imidazolate frameworks is a metal-organic framework carbon dioxide sink which could be used to keep
industrial emissions of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.[52]

Trends in sink performance


According to a report in Nature magazine, (November, 2009) the first year-by-year accounting of this mechanism
during the industrial era, and the first time scientists have actually measured it, suggests "the oceans are struggling to
keep up with rising emissions—a finding with potentially wide implications for future climate." With total world
emissions from fossil fuels growing rapidly, the proportion of fossil-fuel emissions absorbed by the oceans since
2000 may have declined by as much as 10%, indicating that over time the ocean will become "a less efficient sink of
manmade carbon." Samar Khatiwala, an oceanographer at Columbia University concludes that the studies suggest
"we cannot count on these sinks operating in the future as they have in the past, and keep on subsidizing our
ever-growing appetite for fossil fuels."[12] However, a recent paper by Wolfgang Knorr indicates that the fraction of
CO2 absorbed by carbon sinks has not changed since 1850.[53]

References
[1] Karen Palmer and Dallas Burtraw. "Electricity, Renewables, and Climate Change: Searching for a Cost-Effective Policy" (http:/ / web.
archive. org/ web/ 20070604191032/ http:/ / www. rff. org/ Documents/ RFF-RPT-Renewables. pdf) (PDF). Resources for the Future.
Archived from the original (http:/ / www. rff. org/ Documents/ RFF-RPT-Renewables. pdf) on 2007-06-04. .
[2] Manguiat, M. S. Z., Verheyen, R., Mackensen, J. & Scholz, G. (2005). "Legal aspects in the implementation of CDM forestry projects" (http:/
/ data. iucn. org/ dbtw-wpd/ edocs/ EPLP-059. pdf) (pdf). IUCN Environmental Policy and Law Papers. Number 59. .
[3] Rosenbaum, K. L., Schoene, D. & Mekouar, A. (2004). "Climate change and the forest sector. Possible national and subnational legislation"
(http:/ / www. fao. org/ docrep/ 007/ y5647e/ y5647e00. HTM). FAO Forestry Papers. Number 144. .
[4] Swift, Roger S. (November 2001). "Sequestration of Carbon by soil" (http:/ / www. soilsci. com/ pt/ re/ soilsci/ abstract.
00010694-200111000-00010. htm). Soil Science 166 (11): 858–71. doi:10.1097/00010694-200111000-00010. .
[5] Batjes, Niels H. (1996). "Total carbon and nitrogen in the soils of the world". European Journal of Soil Science 47: 151–63.
doi:10.1111/j.1365-2389.1996.tb01386.x.
[6] Klaus Lorenza, Rattan Lala, Caroline M. Prestonb, Klaas G.J. Nieropc (15 November 2007). "Strengthening the soil organic carbon pool by
increasing contributions from recalcitrant aliphatic bio(macro)molecules". Geoderma 142 (1-2): 1–10. doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2007.07.013.
[7] Chester, Bronwyn (20 April 2000). "The case of the missing sink" (http:/ / www. mcgill. ca/ reporter/ 32/ 15/ roulet/ ). McGill Reporter. .
Retrieved 2008-07-08.
[8] Duncan Graham-Rowe (24 February 2005). "Hydroelectric power's dirty secret revealed" (http:/ / www. newscientist. com/ article.
ns?id=dn7046). New Scientist. . Retrieved 2008-07-08.
Carbon sink 542

[9] C.Michael Hogan. 2009. Overgrazing (http:/ / www. eoearth. org/ article/ Overgrazing). Encyclopedia of Earth. Sidney Draggan, topic ed.;
Cutler J. Cleveland, ed., National council for Science and the Environment, Washington DC
[10] A report (http:/ / www. rodaleinstitute. org/ files/ Rodale_Research_Paper. pdf) recently released by Rodale Institute (http:/ / www.
hero-farmers. org/ ) and based on nearly 30 years of research in its side-by-side studies of organic and conventional agriculture.
[11] Lappé, Anna (9 May 2008). "Timothy LaSalle of Rodale on the surprising climate benefits of organic farming" (http:/ / www. grist. org/
feature/ 2008/ 05/ 09/ index. html?source=rss). Grist. .
[12] Earth Institute News (http:/ / www. earth. columbia. edu/ articles/ view/ 2586), Columbia University, Nov. 18, 2009
[13] Raven, J. A.; P. G. Falkowski (1999). "Oceanic sinks for atmospheric CO2". Plant Cell & Environment 22: 741–55.
doi:10.1046/j.1365-3040.1999.00419.x.
[14] Takahashi, T.; S. C. Sutherland, C. Sweeney, A. Poisson, N. Metzl, B. Tilbrook, N. Bates, R. Wanninkhof, R. A. Feely, C. Sabine, J.
Olafsson and Y. C. Nojiri (2002). "Global sea-air CO2 flux based on climatological surface ocean pCO2, and seasonal biological and
temperature effects". Deep Sea Research II 49: 1601–22. doi:10.1016/S0967-0645(02)00003-6.
[15] "Battelle announces CO2 Monitor". Chemical & Engineering News: 66. 19 January 2009.
[16] CNRS (Délégation Paris Michel-Ange) (2009, February 23). /releases/2009/02/090216092937.htm "Ocean Less Effective At Absorbing
Carbon Dioxide Emitted By Human Activity" (http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com). ScienceDaily. /releases/2009/02/090216092937.htm.
[17] "Does harvesting in Canada's forests contribute to climate change?" (http:/ / cfs. nrcan. gc. ca/ news/ 473). Canadian Forest Service
Science-Policy Notes. Natural Resources Canada. May 2007. .
[18] University of Leeds (2009, February 19). /releases/2009/02/090218135031.htm "One-fifth Of Fossil-fuel Emissions Absorbed By
Threatened Forests" (http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com). ScienceDaily. /releases/2009/02/090218135031.htm.
[19] Jonathan Amos (2006-12-15). "Care needed with carbon offsets" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ sci/ tech/ 6184577. stm). BBC. . Retrieved
2008-07-08.
[20] "Models show growing more forests in temperate regions could contribute to global warming" (https:/ / publicaffairs. llnl. gov/ news/
news_releases/ 2005/ NR-05-12-04. html). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. 5 December 2005. . Retrieved 2008-07-08.
[21] S. Gibbard, K. Caldeira, G. Bala, T. J. Phillips, and M. Wickett (December 2005). "Climate effects of global land cover change".
Geophysical Research Letters 32: L23705. Bibcode 2005GeoRL..3223705G. doi:10.1029/2005GL024550.
[22] Y. Malhi, P. Meir, and S. Brown (15 August 2002). "Forests, carbon and global climate" (http:/ / www. ncbi. nlm. nih. gov/ pubmed/
12460485?dopt=abstractplus). Institute of Ecology and Resource Management. . Retrieved 2008-07-08.
[23] "U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports" (http:/ / epa. gov/ climatechange/ emissions/ usinventoryreport. html). EPA. . Retrieved
2008-07-08.
[24] "Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20080523085328/ http:/ / epa. gov/ climatechange/ emissions/
downloads06/ 06LULUCF. pdf) (PDF). EPA. Archived from the original (http:/ / epa. gov/ climatechange/ emissions/ downloads06/
06LULUCF. pdf) on 2008-05-23. . Retrieved 2008-07-08.
[25] "Executive Summary" (http:/ / epa. gov/ climatechange/ emissions/ downloads06/ 06ES. pdf) (PDF). EPA. . Retrieved 2008-07-08.
[26] William H. Schlesinger, dean of the Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences at Duke University, in Durham, North
Carolina.
[27] "About Us: Global Cooling Center" (http:/ / www. treesftf. org/ about/ cooling. htm). Trees for the Future. .
[28] "Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): Mitigation of Climate Change (Working Group III)" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/
wg3/ ar4-wg3-chapter9. pdf). International Panel on Climate Change. pp. 549. .
[29] Ruddell, Steven; et al. (September 2007). "The Role for Sustainably Managed Forests in Climate Change Mitigation". Journal of Forestry
105 (6): 314–319.
[30] J. Chatellier (January 2010). The Role of Forest Products in the Global Carbon Cycle: From In-Use to End-of-Life (http:/ / gisf. research.
yale. edu/ forest_carbon_report/ Chapter_13. pdf). Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies. .
[31] "Harmon, Harmon, Ferrell and Brooks. Modeling Carbon Stores in Oregon and Washington Forest Products 1900–1992. Climate Change
33:521-550 (1996)." (http:/ / www. springerlink. com/ content/ u51867621j8307m7/ ). .
[32] Michael Markels, Jr and Richard T. Barber (May 14–17, 2001). "Sequestration of CO2 by ocean fertilization" (http:/ / www. netl. doe. gov/
publications/ proceedings/ 01/ carbon_seq/ p25. pdf) (PDF). NETL Conference on Carbon Sequestration. . Retrieved 2008-07-08.
[33] "Questions and Concerns" (http:/ / www. greenseaventure. com/ Questions_Concerns. html). GreenSea Venture. . Retrieved 2008-07-08.
[34] Simon M. Mitrovica, Monica Fernández Amandia, Lincoln McKenzieb, Ambrose Fureya and Kevin J. James (30 December 2004). "Effects
of selenium, iron and cobalt addition to growth and yessotoxin production of the toxic marine dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum in
culture" (http:/ / www. sciencedirect. com/ science?_ob=ArticleURL& _udi=B6T8F-4DH2JCT-1& _user=10& _coverDate=12/ 30/ 2004&
_rdoc=1& _fmt=& _orig=search& _sort=d& view=c& _acct=C000050221& _version=1& _urlVersion=0& _userid=10&
md5=013c171e38287b45b13181a8fb73aa03). Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 313 (2): 337–351.
doi:10.1016/j.jembe.2004.08.014. . Retrieved 2008-07-08.
[35] Susan S. Lang (13 July 2005). "Organic farming produces same corn and soybean yields as conventional farms, but consumes less energy
and no pesticides, study finds" (http:/ / www. news. cornell. edu/ stories/ July05/ organic. farm. vs. other. ssl. html). . Retrieved 2008-07-08.
[36] Pimentel, David; Hepperly, Paul; Hanson, James; Douds, David; Seidel, Rita (2005). "Environmental, Energetic, and Economic
Comparisons of Organic and Conventional Farming Systems". Bioscience 55 (7): 573–82.
doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2005)055[0573:EEAECO]2.0.CO;2.
Carbon sink 543

[37] Lal, R; Griffin, M; Apt, J; Lave, L; Morgan, MG (April 2004). "Managing Soil Carbon" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/
summary/ 304/ 5669/ 393?maxtoshow=& HITS=& hits=& RESULTFORMAT=& author1=Morgan,+ mg& fulltext=soil&
andorexactfulltext=and& searchid=1& FIRSTINDEX=0& resourcetype=HWCIT). Science 304 (5669): 393. doi:10.1126/science.1093079.
PMID 15087532. .
[38] Johannes Lehmann. "Biochar: the new frontier" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20080618231424/ http:/ / www. css. cornell. edu/ faculty/
lehmann/ biochar/ Biochar_home. htm). Archived from the original (http:/ / www. css. cornell. edu/ faculty/ lehmann/ biochar/ Biochar_home.
htm) on 2008-06-18. . Retrieved 2008-07-08.
[39] Horstman, Mark (2007-09-23). "Agrichar – A solution to global warming?" (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ catalyst/ stories/ s2012892. htm).
ABC TV Science: Catalyst (Australian Broadcasting Corporation). . Retrieved 2008-07-08.
[40] "West Arnhem Land Fire Abatement Project" (http:/ / savanna. ntu. edu. au/ information/ arnhem_fire_project. html). Savanna Information.
Tropical Savannas Cooperative Research Centre. . Retrieved 2008-07-08.
[41] "Eureka Win for West Arnhem Land Fire Project" (http:/ / savanna. ntu. edu. au/ news/ topical_savannas109. html). Savanna Information.
Tropical Savannas Cooperative Research Centre. . Retrieved 2008-07-08.
[42] "Climate Change, Global Warming, and the Built Environment - Architecture 2030" (http:/ / www. architecture2030. org). . Retrieved
2007-02-23.
[43] Robert H. Socolow (July 2005). "Can We Bury Global Warming?". Scientific American: 42.
[44] utility company Luminant (http:/ / www. luminant. com/ )'s pilot version at its Big Brown Steam Electric Station (http:/ / www. luminant.
com/ plants/ big_brown. aspx) in Fairfield, Texas
[45] Skyonic (http:/ / www. skyonic. com/ theCompany. php) plans to circumvent storage problems of liquid CO2 by storing baking soda in
mines, landfills, or simply to be sold as industrial or food-grade baking soda.
[46] GreenFuel Technologies Corp. (http:/ / www. greenfuelonline. com/ index. html)
[47] Potent greenhouse-gas methane has been rising | csmonitor.com (http:/ / www. csmonitor. com/ 2008/ 0428/ p01s04-wogi. html)
[48] Norman Baker and Ben Bradshaw (4 July 2005). "Carbon Sequestration" (http:/ / www. theyworkforyou. com/ wrans/ ?id=2005-07-04a.
7044. h). . Retrieved 2008-07-08.
[49] "Bureau of Economic Geology Receives $38 Million for First Large-Scale U.S. Test Storing Carbon Dioxide Underground" (http:/ / www.
jsg. utexas. edu/ news/ rels/ 102407. html)
[50] http:/ / www. sseb. org/ currentprograms/ cpa_cmi. htm
[51] "Carbon-capture Technology To Help UK Tackle Global Warming" (http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com/ releases/ 2007/ 07/ 070727091001.
htm). ScienceDaily. July 27, 2007. .
[52] CBC News (http:/ / www. cbc. ca/ technology/ story/ 2008/ 02/ 15/ tech-carbon-capture. html) article New materials can selectively capture
CO2, scientists say published February 15, 2008
[53] Knorr, W. (2009). "Is the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions increasing?". Geophysical Research Letters 36 (21): L21710.
Bibcode 2009GeoRL..3621710K. doi:10.1029/2009GL040613. [ Controversial new climate change results (http:/ / www. bris. ac. uk/ news/
2009/ 6649. html) Lay summary] (9 November 2009).

External links

General
• Carbon Sequestration News (http://www.jsg.utexas.edu/carboncapture/carbonsequestration.html) Recent
news articles on CO2 capture and storage.
• Gulf Coast Carbon Center (http://www.beg.utexas.edu/environqlty/co201.htm) University of Texas at Austin
research center that investigates geologic storage of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the Gulf Coast region.
• SinksWatch (http://www.sinkswatch.org/) - An initiative to track and scrutinize carbon sink projects
• National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Carbon Sequestration Home Page (http://www.netl.doe.gov/
technologies/carbon_seq/index.html)
• U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science Carbon Sequestration Research Programs (http://cdiac2.esd.
ornl.gov/)
• "U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory - Carbon Sequestration Technology
Roadmap" (http://web.archive.org/web/20070604191032/http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/
carbon_seq/2005_roadmap_for_web.pdf) (PDF). Archived from the original (http://www.netl.doe.gov/
publications/carbon_seq/2005_roadmap_for_web.pdf) on 2007-06-04.
• The Carbon Offset Opportunity Program: A Tool for Collaborative Carbon Sequestration Project Development
(http://www.offsetopportunity.com/)
• Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies Program at MIT (http://sequestration.mit.edu/)
Carbon sink 544

• International industry R&D group focussed on CO2 sequestration (http://www.co2captureandstorage.info/)


• CO2 Capture Project (http://www.co2captureproject.org/reports/reports.htm)
• Carbon Mitigation Initiative (http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/)
• Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (SECARB) (http://www.sseb.org/currentprograms/
cpa_cmi.htm)
• 'Catalyst' on Australian science TV on geosequestration (http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s1195633.
htm)
• The U.S. North American Carbon Program (http://www.nacarbon.org/)
• Collection of recent news articles on CO2 capture and storage (http://pangea.stanford.edu/~mhesse/
NewsLinks.html)
• Synthetic Trees Could Purify Air (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/2784227.stm)
• The Consortium for Agricultural Soil Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases (http://www.casmgs.colostate.edu/)
• Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage Research (http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs/)
• Can geosequestration save the coal industry? (http://www.ceem.unsw.edu.au/content/documents/
Diesendorf_Coal-Geoseq.pdf)
• Oceanic CO2-Uptake (http://www.futureocean.org/english/research-areas/ocean-change/
oceanic-cosub2sub-uptake/facts/) - Cluster of Excellence "Future Ocean , Kiel

Research
• Short documentary on Australian research into limits on carbon uptake by trees (http://www.abc.net.au/
catalyst/stories/s1901661.htm)
• FAO (2004) Carbon sequestration in dryland soils (http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/y5738e/y5738e00.htm)
• IEA Reports: Putting carbon back into the ground (pdf) (http://www.ieagreen.org.uk/putcback.pdf) and
Ocean storage of CO2 (pdf) (http://www.ieagreen.org.uk/oceanrep.pdf)
• Haszeldine (2005) Deep geological CO2 storage: principles, and prospecting for bio-energy disposal sites (pdf)
(http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/research/subsurface/diagenesis/CO2_sites_biofuel.pdf)
• The Role of Carbon in Agricultural Soils in Carbon Sequestration - A Better Alternative for Climate Change?
Chapter 1: Agricultural Sinks (1999) University of Maryland pdf format (http://www.puaf.umd.edu/faculty/
nelson/carbseq/pdf/1.pdf) doc format (http://www.puaf.umd.edu/faculty/nelson/carbseq/CHAPTER 1.
doc)
• Schlesinger, W.H. 1991. Biogeochemistry: An Analysis of Global Change. Academic Press, San Diego.
• Peat bogs may be soaking up 10 to 20% of the excess CO2 generated by human activity (http://www.mcgill.ca/
reporter/32/15/roulet/)
• DMS and Climate (http://saga.pmel.noaa.gov/review/dms_climate.html)
• Carbon Store in U.S. Forests (http://www.ilea.org/birdsey/index.html)

Action
• Collection of recent news articles on CO2 capture and storage (http://pangea.stanford.edu/~mhesse/
NewsLinks.html)
• Britain entertains the idea (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3930245.stm)
• Gary Polakovic (February 20, 2004). "Canada places carbon dioxide underground to clean air" (http://
seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2001861641_carbon19.html). The Seattle Times. Retrieved
2010-08-13.
• United States pumps CO2 underground (http://www.csmonitor.com/2003/0624/p02s02-usgn.html)
• Observer 24 April 2005 Seabed supplies a cure for global warming crisis (http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/
2005/apr/24/environment.environment)
Carbon sink 545

• Tyndall Centre - Assessing the potential for geological carbon sequestration in the UK (http://www.tyndall.ac.
uk/publications/fact_sheets/t2_21.shtml)

Climate change mitigation scenarios


Climate change mitigation scenarios are possible futures in which global warming is reduced by deliberate actions,
such as a comprehensive switch to energy sources other than fossil fuels. A typical mitigation scenario is constructed
by selecting a long-range target, such as a desired atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), and then
fitting the actions to the target, for example by placing a cap on net global and national emissions of greenhouse
gases.
An increase of global temperature by more than 2°C has come to be the majority definition of what would constitute
intolerably dangerous climate change, but some climate scientists are increasingly of the opinion that the goal should
be a complete restoration of the atmosphere's preindustrial condition, on the grounds that too protracted a deviation
from those conditions will produce irreversible changes.

Target levels of CO2


Contributions to climate change, whether they cool or warm the Earth, are often described in terms of the radiative
forcing or imbalance they introduce to the planet's energy budget. Now and in the future, anthropogenic carbon
dioxide is believed to be the major component of this forcing, and the contribution of other components is often
quantified in terms of "parts-per-million CO2-equivalent" (ppm CO2e), or the increment/decrement in carbon dioxide
concentrations which would create a radiative forcing of the same magnitude.
At present, non-CO2 contributions to climate change, positive and negative, are believed to roughly cancel out, so
that the net radiative forcing being experienced at present, expressed in ppm CO2-e, is more or less the same as the actual
2, as of 2008). To some extent this legitimates the statement of targets just in
current level of carbon dioxide (383 ppm CO
terms of ppm CO2, as is usually the case. However, the positive and negative non-CO2 will not necessarily balance in future, and
so a target stated in terms of CO2e is less ambiguous.

Stabilization wedges
A stabilization wedge (or simply "wedge") is an action which incrementally reduces projected emissions. (The
name derives from the triangular shape of the gap between reduced and unreduced emissions trajectories, when
graphed over time.) For example, a reduction in electricity demand due to increased efficiency means that less
electricity needs to be generated and thus fewer emissions need to be produced. The term originates in the
Stabilization Wedge Game.

350 ppm
This is the target level advocated in a recent paper[1] by climate scientist James E. Hansen and others such as:
Rajendra Pachauri, the U.N.'s "top climate scientist" and leader of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC),[2] [3] [4] the Director of the University of Minnesota's Institute on the Environment, Jonathan Foley[5] ,[6]
President of the Pacific Institute Peter H. Gleick, and the Policy Director of the Brookings Institution's Climate and
Energy Economics Project Adele C. Morris.[7] This maximum level is advocated by the 350.org campaign, along
with other organizations such as the Tällberg Foundation.[8] A strategy proposed is (1) no further oil and gas
exploration (so that only already-known reserves will be consumed), (2) the elimination of all uncaptured burning of
coal by 2030, and (3) an intensive program of reforestation and biochar agriculture.
A mitigation scenario modeled by Malte Meinshausen et al. suggests that to stabilize CO2 at 350 ppm, we will need
to reduce emissions by slightly more than 5 per cent per year.[9]
Climate change mitigation scenarios 546

From an "energy technology and policy perspective", Joe Romm says a 350-ppm target will require eight wedges,
each saving 1 gigaton of carbon per year, by 2030, and another ten by 2060.[10]
At the 2008 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Poznań, Poland, the Least Developed Countries bloc
spoke in favor of a 350 ppm target.
Nicholas Stern of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, called the "world’s top climate
economist", endorses 350 ppm as “a very sensible long-term target.”[11]
Per "We can afford to save the planet" October 23, 2009 [12] Eban Goodstein, Frank Ackerman, Kristen Sheeran (of
the Economics for Equity and the Environment Network (E3)), and Lester R. Brown[13] per "We Only Have Months,
Not Years, To Save Civilization From Climate Change", November 2009 [14], are supporters of the 350 upper limit.
Per Will Steger Foundation Policy [15]: "Stabilize CO2 in the atmosphere at 350 ppm".
Barbara Kingsolver, Ed Begley, Bonnie Raitt Campaign to Cap Carbon Pollution at 350 PPM [16]
In her speech "The World's Tipping Point"[17], Bianca Jagger states “the safe upper limit for atmospheric CO2 is no
more than 350 ppm." and quotes the report "The Economics of 350: The Benefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization"
by Stephen J. DeCanio, Eban Goodstein, Richard B. Howarth, Richard B. Norgaard and Catherine S. Norman,
stressing " the need for immediate, direct intervention".
Worldchanging's Alex Steffen 350 ppm [18] also supports achieving the 350 ppm goal, such as in "Planetary
Boundaries and the New Generation Gap" [19]
Scientific American August 2010 ocean acidification article Threatening Oceans from the Inside Out: How
Acidification Affects Marine Life [20] Blue Ocean Institute authors Marah J. Hardt and Carl Safina support 350 ppm
as the maximum upper limit of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for marine life health, see page 72 in print.

Less conservative targets

450 ppm
The BLUE scenarios in the IEA's Energy Technology Perspectives publication of 2008 describe pathways to a
long-range concentration of 450 ppm. Joseph Romm has sketched how to achieve this target through the application
of 14 wedges.[21]
World Energy Outlook 2008, mentioned above, also describes a "450 Policy Scenario", in which extra energy
investments to 2030 amount to $9.3 trillion over the Reference Scenario. The scenario also features, after 2020, the
participation of major economies such as China and India in a global cap-and-trade scheme initially operating in
OECD and European Union countries.

550 ppm
This is the target advocated (as an upper bound) in the Stern Review. As approximately a doubling of CO2 levels
relative to preindustrial times, it implies a temperature increase of about three degrees, according to conventional estimates of climate sensitivity.
2 levels below 550 ppm.[22]
Pacala and Socolow list 15 "wedges", any 7 of which in combination should suffice to keep CO
The International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook report for 2008 describes a "Reference Scenario" for the
world's energy future "which assumes no new government policies beyond those already adopted by mid-2008", and
then a "550 Policy Scenario" in which further policies are adopted, a mixture of "cap-and-trade systems, sectoral
agreements and national measures". In the Reference Scenario, between 2006 and 2030 the world invests $26.3
trillion in energy-supply infrastructure; in the 550 Policy Scenario, a further $4.1 trillion is spent in this period,
mostly on efficiency increases which deliver fuel cost savings of over $7 trillion.[23]
Climate change mitigation scenarios 547

Other greenhouse gases


Greenhouse gas concentrations are aggregated in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent. Some multi-gas mitigation
scenarios have been modeled by Meinshausen et al.[9]

As a short-term focus
In a 2000 paper,[24] Hansen argued that the 0.75° rise in average global temperatures over the last 100 years has been
driven mainly by greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide, since warming due to CO2 had been offset by cooling
due to aerosols, implying the viability of a strategy initially based around reducing emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse
gases and of black carbon, focusing on CO2 only in the longer run.[25]

References
[1] Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? (http:/ / arxiv. org/ abs/ 0804. 1126)
[2] "Pachauri's call for 350ppm is breakthrough moment for climate movement" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2009/ aug/ 26/
pachauri-350ppm-breakthrough-climate). London: guardian.co.uk. 2009-08-26. . Retrieved 2009-09-15.
[3] Johnson, Keith (2009-08-25). "Climate Debate: IPCC Head Pachauri Joins the 350 Club - Environmental Capital - WSJ" (http:/ / blogs. wsj.
com/ environmentalcapital/ 2009/ 08/ 25/ climate-debate-ipcc-head-pachauri-joins-the-350-club/ ). blogs.wsj.com. . Retrieved 2009-09-15.
[4] "AFP: Top UN climate scientist backs ambitious CO2 cuts" (http:/ / www. google. com/ hostednews/ afp/ article/
ALeqM5hacayDuUcngLmhNkplHB5VtG5GNw). www.google.com. . Retrieved 2009-09-15.
[5] http:/ / www. scientificamerican. com/ article. cfm?id=boundaries-for-a-healthy-planet
[6] http:/ / environment. umn. edu/ about/ people. html
[7] http:/ / www. brookings. edu/ experts/ morrisa. aspx
[8] http:/ / www. tallbergfoundation. org/ TÄLLBERGINITIATIVES/ 350/ tabid/ 429/ Default. aspx
[9] Meinshausen, M., Hare, W., Wigley, T. M. M., Van Vuuren, D., Den Elzen, M. G. J. and Swart, R. (2006) Multi-gas Emissions Pathways to
Meet Climate Targets (http:/ / www. springerlink. com/ content/ 2185481704614445/ ?p=62e04c1bfacc449e929a9f9c61c0ebce& pi=4)
Climatic Change 75: 151–194
[10] An open letter to James Hansen on the real truth about stabilizing at 350 ppm (http:/ / climateprogress. org/ 2008/ 11/ 23/
an-open-letter-to-james-hansen-on-the-real-truth-about-stabilizing-at-350-ppm/ )
[11] http:/ / climateprogress. org/ 2009/ 09/ 09/ nicholas-stern-worlds-top-climate-economist-endorses-350-ppm-long-term-target/
[12] http:/ / www. washingtonpost. com/ wp-dyn/ content/ article/ 2009/ 10/ 22/ AR2009102204193. html
[13] http:/ / www. scribd. com/ doc/ 26831428/ From-Lester-R-Brown-Plan-B-2-0
[14] http:/ / www. countercurrents. org/ brown141109. htm
[15] http:/ / www. willstegerfoundation. org/ index. php/ policy
[16] http:/ / www. enn. com/ press_releases/ 3299
[17] http:/ / greenbuilders. ning. com/ profiles/ blogs/ bianca-jagger-speech
[18] http:/ / www. worldchanging. com/ archives/ 007744. html
[19] http:/ / www. worldchanging. com/ archives/ 010070. html
[20] http:/ / www. scientificamerican. com/ article. cfm?id=threatening-ocean-life
[21] http:/ / climateprogress. org/ 2008/ 04/ 22/ is-450-ppm-or-less-politically-possible-part-2-the-solution/ Is 450 ppm (or less) politically
possible? Part 2: The Solution
[22] http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ full/ 305/ 5686/ 968 Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years
with Current Technologies
[23] name="weo08">http:/ / www. iea. org/ weo/ docs/ weo2008/ fact_sheets_08. pdf World Energy Outlook 2008 Fact Sheet
[24] Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ content/ full/ 97/ 18/ 9875)
[25] Review of Hansen et al.: Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative Scenario (http:/ / ucsusa. wsm. ga3. org/ ssi/ archive/
ucs-review-for-alternative-scenario. html)
Drought tolerance 548

Drought tolerance
Drought tolerance refers to the degree to which a
plant is adapted to arid or drought conditions.
Desiccation tolerance is an extreme degree of drought
tolerance.[1] Plants naturally adapted to dry conditions
are called xerophytes.

Adaptations to dry conditions


Drought tolerant plants typically make use of either C4
carbon fixation or crassulacean acid metabolism
(CAM) to fix carbon during photosynthesis. Both are
improvements over the more common but more basal
C3 pathway in that they are more energy efficient. Sedum is a drought tolerant plant whose specific adaptations include
succulence and a waxy surface on its leaves and stems.
CAM is particularly good for arid conditions because
carbon dioxide can be taken up at night, allowing the
stomata to stay closed during the heat of day and thus reducing water loss.[2]

Many adaptations for dry conditions are structural, including the following:
• Adaptations of the stomata to reduce water loss, such as reduced numbers or waxy surfaces.
• Water storage in succulent above-ground parts or water-filled tubers.
• Adaptations in the root system to increase water absorption.
• Trichomes (small hairs) on the leaves to absorb atmospheric water.

Importance in agriculture
Arid conditions can lower the yield of many crops. Plant breeding programs for improved yield during drought
conditions have great economic importance, and these programs may be broad in scope. For example, one study on
soybeans currently being conducted by the United States Department of Agriculture is scheduled to span several
years, with research taking place across that country, and has among its goals the identification of specific
mechanism by which soybeans resist wilting and of the specific genes for drought tolerance.[3]

Importance in horticulture
In landscapes in arid or drought-prone regions, drought tolerance is an important consideration in plant selection.
Xeriscaping is an approach to landscaping first developed in Denver, Colorado, a region with hot, dry summers. The
use of drought tolerant plants is essential to a successful xeriscape, which ideally requires no supplemental irrigation.

References
[1] Ars | Publication Request: Evolutionary Linkage Between Drought And Vegetative Desiccation Tolerance In Plants (http:/ / www. ars. usda.
gov/ research/ publications/ publications. htm?SEQ_NO_115=191622)
[2] Botany online: Photosynthesis - C3, C4 and CAM. Regulation of The Activity (http:/ / www. biologie. uni-hamburg. de/ b-online/ e24/ 24b.
htm)
[3] ARS Project: Drought Stress Tolerance for the Midwest and South; Soybean Variety Improvement (Continuation) (409278) (http:/ / www.
ars. usda. gov/ research/ projects/ projects. htm?accn_no=409278)
Irrigation 549

Irrigation
Irrigation may be defined as the science of artificial application of water to the land or soil. It is used to assist in the
growing of agricultural crops, maintenance of landscapes, and revegetation of disturbed soils in dry areas and during
periods of inadequate rainfall. Additionally, irrigation also has a few other uses in crop production, which include
protecting plants against frost,[1] suppressing weed growing in grain fields[2] and helping in preventing soil
consolidation.[3] In contrast, agriculture that relies only on direct rainfall is referred to as rain-fed or dryland farming.
Irrigation systems are also used for dust suppression, disposal of sewage, and in mining. Irrigation is often studied
together with drainage, which is the natural or artificial removal of surface and sub-surface water from a given area.
Irrigation is also a term used in medical/dental fields to refer to flushing and washing out anything with water or
another liquid.

Irrigation in a field in New Jersey, United States. An Irrigation sprinkler watering a lawn

Archaeological investigation has identified evidence of irrigation in


Mesopotamia, Ancient Egypt and Ancient Persia (modern day Iran) as
far back as the 6th millennium BCE, where barley was grown in areas
where the natural rainfall was insufficient to support such a crop.[4]
In the Zana Valley of the Andes Mountains in Peru, archaeologists
found remains of three irrigation canals radiocarbon dated from the 4th
millennium BCE, the 3rd millennium BCE and the 9th century CE.
These canals are the earliest record of irrigation in the New World.
Traces of a canal possibly dating from the 5th millennium BCE were
found under the 4th millennium canal.[5] Sophisticated irrigation and
storage systems were developed by the Indus Valley Civilization in
present-day Pakistan and North India, including the reservoirs at
Girnar in 3000 BCE and an early canal irrigation system from circa
2600 BCE.[6] [7] Large scale agriculture was practiced and an extensive
network of canals was used for the purpose of irrigation. Animal-powered irrigation, Upper Egypt, ca.
1840
There is evidence of the ancient Egyptian pharaoh Amenemhet III in
the twelfth dynasty (about 1800 BCE) using the natural lake of the Faiyum Oasis as a reservoir to store surpluses of
water for use during the dry seasons, the lake swelled annually from flooding of the Nile.[8]
Irrigation 550

The Qanats, developed in ancient Persia in about 800 BCE, are among
the oldest known irrigation methods still in use today. They are now
found in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. The system
comprises a network of vertical wells and gently sloping tunnels driven
into the sides of cliffs and steep hills to tap groundwater.[9] The noria, a
water wheel with clay pots around the rim powered by the flow of the
An example of irrigation system common in
stream (or by animals where the water source was still), was first
Indian subcontinent. Artistic impression on the
brought into use at about this time, by Roman settlers in North Africa. banks of Dal Lake, Kashmir, India.
By 150 BCE the pots were fitted with valves to allow smoother filling
as they were forced into the water.[10]

The irrigation works of ancient Sri Lanka, the earliest dating from
about 300 BCE, in the reign of King Pandukabhaya and under
continuous development for the next thousand years, were one of the
most complex irrigation systems of the ancient world. In addition to
underground canals, the Sinhalese were the first to build completely
artificial reservoirs to store water. Due to their engineering superiority
in this sector, they were often called 'masters of irrigation'. Most of
these irrigation systems still exist undamaged up to now, in
Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa, because of the advanced and precise Inside a karez tunnel at Turpan, China.

engineering. The system was extensively restored and further extended


during the reign of King Parakrama Bahu (1153–1186 CE).[11]

The oldest known hydraulic engineers of China were Sunshu Ao (6th century BCE) of the Spring and Autumn
Period and Ximen Bao (5th century BCE) of the Warring States period, both of whom worked on large irrigation
projects. In the Szechwan region belonging to the State of Qin of ancient China, the Dujiangyan Irrigation System
was built in 256 BCE to irrigate an enormous area of farmland that today still supplies water.[12] By the 2nd century
AD, during the Han Dynasty, the Chinese also used chain pumps that lifted water from lower elevation to higher
elevation.[13] These were powered by manual foot pedal, hydraulic waterwheels, or rotating mechanical wheels
pulled by oxen.[14] The water was used for public works of providing water for urban residential quarters and palace
gardens, but mostly for irrigation of farmland canals and channels in the fields.[15]

In 15th century Korea, the world's first water gauge, uryanggye (Korean:우량계), was discovered in 1441. The
inventor was Jang Yeong-sil, a Korean engineer of the Joseon Dynasty, under the active direction of the king, Sejong
the Great. It was installed in irrigation tanks as part of a nationwide system to measure and collect rainfall for
agricultural applications. With this instrument, planners and farmers could make better use of the information
gathered in the survey.[16]
In the Americas, extensive irrigation systems were created by numerous groups in prehistoric times. One example is
seen in the recent archaeological excavations near the Santa Cruz River in Tucson, Arizona. They have located a
village site dating from 4,000 years ago. The floodplain of the Santa Cruz River was extensively farmed during the
Early Agricultural period, circa 1200 BC to AD 150. These people constructed irrigation canals and grew corn,
beans, and other crops while gathering wild plants and hunting animals.
Irrigation 551

Present extent
In the middle of the 20th century, the advent of diesel and electric motors led for the first time to systems that could
pump groundwater out of major aquifers faster than it was recharged. This can lead to permanent loss of aquifer
capacity, decreased water quality, ground subsidence, and other problems. The future of food production in such
areas as the North China Plain, the Punjab, and the Great Plains of the US is threatened.
At the global scale 2,788,000 km² (689 million acres) of agricultural land was equipped with irrigation infrastructure
around the year 2000. About 68% of the area equipped for irrigation is located in Asia, 17% in America, 9% in
Europe, 5% in Africa and 1% in Oceania. The largest contiguous areas of high irrigation density are found in North
India and Pakistan along the rivers Ganges and Indus, in the Hai He, Huang He and Yangtze basins in China, along
the Nile river in Egypt and Sudan, in the Mississippi-Missouri river basin and in parts of California. Smaller
irrigation areas are spread across almost all populated parts of the world.[17]

Types
Various types of irrigation techniques differ in how the water
obtained from the source is distributed within the field. In general,
the goal is to supply the entire field uniformly with water, so that
each plant has the amount of water it needs, neither too much nor
too little.The modern methods are efficient enough to achieve this
goal.

Surface
In surface irrigation systems, water moves over and across the land
Basin flood irrigation of wheat.
by simple gravity flow in order to wet it and to infiltrate into the
soil. Surface irrigation can be subdivided into furrow, borderstrip
or basin irrigation. It is often called flood irrigation when the
irrigation results in flooding or near flooding of the cultivated
land. Historically, this has been the most common method of
irrigating agricultural land.

Where water levels from the irrigation source permit, the levels are
controlled by dikes, usually plugged by soil. This is often seen in
terraced rice fields (rice paddies), where the method is used to
flood or control the level of water in each distinct field. In some
cases, the water is pumped, or lifted by human or animal power to Irrigation of land in Punjab, Pakistan.
the level of the land.
Irrigation 552

Localized
Localized irrigation is a system where water is distributed under
low pressure through a piped network, in a pre-determined pattern,
and applied as a small discharge to each plant or adjacent to it.
Drip irrigation, spray or micro-sprinkler irrigation and bubbler
irrigation belong to this category of irrigation methods.[18]

Brass Impact type sprinkler head

Drip

Drip irrigation, also known as trickle irrigation, functions as its


name suggests. Water is delivered at or near the root zone of
plants, drop by drop. This method can be the most water-efficient
method of irrigation, if managed properly, since evaporation and
runoff are minimized. In modern agriculture, drip irrigation is
often combined with plastic mulch, further reducing evaporation,
and is also the means of delivery of fertilizer. The process is
known as fertigation.

Drip Irrigation - A dripper in action

Grapes in Petrolina, just possible in this semi arid area


due to drip irrigation.
Irrigation 553

Deep percolation, where water moves below


the root zone, can occur if a drip system is
operated for too long or if the delivery rate
is too high. Drip irrigation methods range
from very high-tech and computerized to
low-tech and labor-intensive. Lower water
pressures are usually needed than for most
other types of systems, with the exception of
low energy center pivot systems and surface
irrigation systems, and the system can be
Drip Irrigation Layout and its parts
designed for uniformity throughout a field
or for precise water delivery to individual
plants in a landscape containing a mix of plant species. Although it is difficult to regulate pressure on steep slopes,
pressure compensating emitters are available, so the field does not have to be level. High-tech solutions involve
precisely calibrated emitters located along lines of tubing that extend from a computerized set of valves. Both
pressure regulation and filtration to remove particles are important. The tubes are usually black (or buried under soil
or mulch) to prevent the growth of algae and to protect the polyethylene from degradation due to ultraviolet light.
But drip irrigation can also be as low-tech as a porous clay vessel sunk into the soil and occasionally filled from a
hose or bucket. Subsurface drip irrigation has been used successfully on lawns, but it is more expensive than a more
traditional sprinkler system. Surface drip systems are not cost-effective (or aesthetically pleasing) for lawns and golf
courses. In the past one of the main disadvantages of the subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) systems, when used for
turf, was the fact of having to install the plastic lines very close to each other in the ground, therefore disrupting the
turf grass area. Recent technology developments on drip installers like the drip installer at New Mexico State
University Arrow Head Center, places the line underground and covers the slit leaving no soil exposed.

Sprinkler
In sprinkler or overhead irrigation, water is piped to one or more
central locations within the field and distributed by overhead
high-pressure sprinklers or guns. A system utilizing sprinklers,
sprays, or guns mounted overhead on permanently installed risers
is often referred to as a solid-set irrigation system. Higher pressure
sprinklers that rotate are called rotors and are driven by a ball
drive, gear drive, or impact mechanism. Rotors can be designed to
rotate in a full or partial circle. Guns are similar to rotors, except
that they generally operate at very high pressures of 40 to
130 lbf/in² (275 to 900 kPa) and flows of 50 to 1200 US gal/min
Sprinkler irrigation of blueberries in Plainville, New
(3 to 76 L/s), usually with nozzle diameters in the range of 0.5 to York, United States.
1.9 inches (10 to 50 mm). Guns are used not only for irrigation,
but also for industrial applications such as dust suppression and
logging.
Irrigation 554

Sprinklers can also be mounted on moving platforms connected to


the water source by a hose. Automatically moving wheeled
systems known as traveling sprinklers may irrigate areas such as
small farms, sports fields, parks, pastures, and cemeteries
unattended. Most of these utilize a length of polyethylene tubing
wound on a steel drum. As the tubing is wound on the drum
powered by the irrigation water or a small gas engine, the sprinkler
is pulled across the field. When the sprinkler arrives back at the
reel the system shuts off. This type of system is known to most
people as a "waterreel" traveling irrigation sprinkler and they are
A traveling sprinkler at Millets Farm Centre,
used extensively for dust suppression, irrigation, and land Oxfordshire, United Kingdom.
application of waste water. Other travelers use a flat rubber hose
that is dragged along behind while the sprinkler platform is pulled
by a cable. These cable-type travelers are definitely old technology and their use is limited in today's modern
irrigation projects.

Center pivot

Center pivot irrigation is a form of sprinkler irrigation consisting of


several segments of pipe (usually galvanized steel or aluminum) joined
together and supported by trusses, mounted on wheeled towers with
sprinklers positioned along its length. The system moves in a circular
pattern and is fed with water from the pivot point at the center of the
arc. These systems are found and used in all parts of the nation and A small center pivot system from beginning to
allow irrigation of all types of terrain. Newer irrigations have drops as end
shown in the image that follows.

The hub of a center-pivot


irrigation system.
Irrigation 555

Rotator style pivot applicator


sprinkler.

Most center pivot systems now have drops hanging from


a u-shaped pipe attached at the top of the pipe with
sprinkler heads that are positioned a few feet (at most)
above the crop, thus limiting evaporative losses. Drops
can also be used with drag hoses or bubblers that deposit
the water directly on the ground between crops. Crops are
often planted in a circle to conform to the center pivot.
This type of system is known as LEPA (Low Energy
Precision Application). Originally, most center pivots
were water powered. These were replaced by hydraulic
systems (T-L Irrigation) and electric motor driven
Center pivot with drop sprinklers. Photo by Gene Alexander, systems (Reinke, Valley, Zimmatic). Many modern
USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service.
sprinklers features GPS devices.

Lateral move (side roll, wheel line)

A series of pipes, each with a wheel of about 1.5 m


diameter permanently affixed to its midpoint and
sprinklers along its length, are coupled together at one
edge of a field. Water is supplied at one end using a
large hose. After sufficient water has been applied, the
hose is removed and the remaining assembly rotated
either by hand or with a purpose-built mechanism, so
that the sprinklers move 10 m across the field. The hose
is reconnected. The process is repeated until the
opposite edge of the field is reached. This system is
less expensive to install than a center pivot, but much Wheel line irrigation system in Idaho. 2001. Photo by Joel McNee,
USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service.
more labor intensive to operate, and it is limited in the
amount of water it can carry. Most systems utilize 4 or
5-inch (130 mm) diameter aluminum pipe. One feature of a lateral move system is that it consists of sections that can
be easily disconnected. They are most often used for small or oddly shaped fields, such as those found in hilly or
mountainous regions, or in regions where labor is inexpensive.
Irrigation 556

Sub-irrigation
Subirrigation also sometimes called seepage irrigation has been used for many years in field crops in areas with high
water tables. It is a method of artificially raising the water table to allow the soil to be moistened from below the
plants' root zone. Often those systems are located on permanent grasslands in lowlands or river valleys and combined
with drainage infrastructure. A system of pumping stations, canals, weirs and gates allows it to increase or decrease
the water level in a network of ditches and thereby control the water table.
Sub-irrigation is also used in commercial greenhouse production, usually for potted plants. Water is delivered from
below, absorbed upwards, and the excess collected for recycling. Typically, a solution of water and nutrients floods a
container or flows through a trough for a short period of time, 10–20 minutes, and is then pumped back into a
holding tank for reuse. Sub-irrigation in greenhouses requires fairly sophisticated, expensive equipment and
management. Advantages are water and nutrient conservation, and labor-saving through lowered system
maintenance and automation. It is similar in principle and action to subsurface drip irrigation.

Manual using buckets or watering cans


These systems have low requirements for infrastructure and technical equipment but need high labor inputs.
Irrigation using watering cans is to be found for example in peri-urban agriculture around large cities in some
African countries.

Automatic, non-electric using buckets and ropes


Besides the common manual watering by bucket, an automated, natural version of this also exist. Using plain
polyester ropes combined with a prepared ground mixture can be used to water plants from a vessel filled with
water.[19] [20] [21]
The ground mixture would need to be made depending on the plant itself, yet would mostly consist of black potting
soil, vermiculite and perlite. This system would (with certain crops) allow to save expenses as it does not consume
any electricity and only little water (unlike sprinklers, water timers, ...). However, it may only be used with certain
crops (probably mostly larger crops that do not need a humid environment; perhaps e.g. paprikas).

Using water condensed from humid air


In countries where at night, humid air sweeps the countryside, water can be obtained from the humid air by
condensation onto cold surfaces. This is for example practiced in the vineyards at Lanzarote using stones to
condense water or with various fog collectors based on canvas or foil sheets.

Sources of irrigation water


Sources of irrigation water can be groundwater extracted from springs or by using wells, surface water withdrawn
from rivers, lakes or reservoirs or non-conventional sources like treated wastewater, desalinated water or drainage
water. A special form of irrigation using surface water is spate irrigation, also called floodwater harvesting. In case
of a flood (spate) water is diverted to normally dry river beds (wadis) using a network of dams, gates and channels
and spread over large areas. The moisture stored in the soil will be used thereafter to grow crops. Spate irrigation
areas are in particular located in semi-arid or arid, mountainous regions. While floodwater harvesting belongs to the
accepted irrigation methods, rainwater harvesting is usually not considered as a form of irrigation. Rainwater
harvesting is the collection of runoff water from roofs or unused land and the concentration of this. Some of Ancient
India's water systems were pulled by oxen.
Irrigation 557

Water scarcity
Fifty years ago, the common perception was that water was an infinite resource. At this time, there were fewer than
half the current number of people on the planet. People were not as wealthy as today, consumed fewer calories and
ate less meat, so less water was needed to produce their food. They required a third of the volume of water we
presently take from rivers. Today, the competition for water resources is much more intense. This is because there
are now nearly seven billion people on the planet, their consumption of water-thirsty meat and vegetables is rising,
and there is increasing competition for water from industry, urbanisation and biofuel crops. To avoid a global water
crisis, farmers will have to strive to increase productivity to meet growing demands for food, while industry and
cities find ways to use water more efficiently.[22]
Successful agriculture is dependent upon farmers having sufficient access to water. However, water scarcity is
already a critical constraint to farming in many parts of the world. Physical water scarcity is where there is not
enough water to meet all demands, including that needed for ecosystems to function effectively. Arid regions
frequently suffer from physical water scarcity. It also occurs where water seems abundant but where resources are
over-committed. This can happen where there is overdevelopment of hydraulic infrastructure, usually for irrigation.
Symptoms of physical water scarcity include environmental degradation and declining groundwater. Economic
scarcity, meanwhile, is caused by a lack of investment in water or insufficient human capacity to satisfy the demand
for water. Symptoms of economic water scarcity include a lack of infrastructure, with people often having to fetch
water from rivers for domestic and agricultural uses. Some 2.8 billion people currently live in water-scarce areas.[23]

How an in-ground irrigation system works


Most commercial and residential irrigation systems are "in ground" systems, which means that everything is buried
in the ground. With the pipes, sprinklers, emitters (drippers), and irrigation valves being hidden, it makes for a
cleaner, more presentable landscape without garden hoses or other items having to be moved around manually. This
does, however, create some drawbacks in the maintenance of a completely buried system.

Water source and piping


The beginning of a sprinkler system is the water source. This is usually a tap into an existing (city) water line or a
pump that pulls water out of a well or a pond. The water travels through pipes from the water source through the
valves to the sprinklers and emitters. The pipes from the water source up to the irrigation valves are called
"mainlines", and the lines from the valves to the emitters or sprinklers are called "lateral lines". Most piping used in
irrigation systems today are HDPE and MDPE or PVC or PEX plastic pressure pipes due to their ease of installation
and resistance to corrosion. After the water source, the water usually travels through a check valve. This prevents
water in the irrigation lines from being pulled back into and contaminating the clean water supply. Ideally a pressure
control valve is also installed to regulate water pressure and help prevent excessive pressure from harming the
system.

Controllers, zones, and valves


Most irrigation systems are divided into zones. A zone is a single irrigation valve and one or a group of drippers or
sprinklers that are connected by pipes or tubes. Irrigation systems are divided into zones because there is usually not
enough pressure and available flow to run sprinklers for an entire yard or sports field at once. Each zone has a
solenoid valve on it that is controlled via wire by an irrigation controller. The irrigation controller is either a
mechanical (now the "dinosaur" type) or electrical device that signals a zone to turn on at a specific time and keeps it
on for a specified amount of time. "Smart Controller" is a recent term used to describe a controller that is capable of
adjusting the watering time by itself in response to current environmental conditions. The smart controller
determines current conditions by means of historic weather data for the local area, a soil moisture sensors (water
potential or water content), rain sensor, or in more sophisticated systems satellite feed weather station, or a
Irrigation 558

combination of these.

Emitters and sprinklers


When a zone comes on, the water flows through the lateral lines and ultimately ends up at the irrigation emitter
(drip) or sprinkler heads. Many sprinklers have pipe thread inlets on the bottom of them which allows a fitting and
the pipe to be attached to them. The sprinklers are usually installed with the top of the head flush with the ground
surface. When the water is pressurized, the head will pop up out of the ground and water the desired area until the
valve closes and shuts off that zone. Once there is no more water pressure in the lateral line, the sprinkler head will
retract back into the ground. Emitters are generally laid on the soil surface or buried a few inches to reduce
evaporation losses.

Problems in irrigation
Main article: Environmental impacts of irrigation
Irrigation can lead to a number of problems:[24]
• Competition for surface water rights.
• Depletion of underground aquifers.
• Ground subsidence (e.g. New Orleans, Louisiana)
• Underirrigation or irrigation giving only just enough water for the plant (e.g. in drip line irrigation) gives poor soil
salinity control which leads to increased soil salinity with consequent build up of toxic salts on soil surface in
areas with high evaporation. This requires either leaching to remove these salts and a method of drainage to carry
the salts away. When using drip lines, the leaching is best done regularly at certain intervals (with only a slight
excess of water), so that the salt is flushed back under the plant's roots.[25] [26]
• Overirrigation because of poor distribution uniformity or management wastes water, chemicals, and may lead to
water pollution.
• Deep drainage (from over-irrigation) may result in rising water tables which in some instances will lead to
problems of irrigation salinity requiring watertable control by some form of subsurface land drainage.[27] [28]
• Irrigation with saline or high-sodium water may damage soil structure owing to the formation of alkaline soil

Academic resources
• Irrigation Science, ISSN: 1432-1319 (electronic) 0342-7188 (paper), Springer
• Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, ISSN: 0733-9437, ASCE Publications

Irrigation by country
• List of countries by irrigated land area

References
[1] Snyder, R. L.; Melo-Abreu, J. P. (2005). "Frost protection: fundamentals, practice, and economics – Volume 1" (ftp:/ / ftp. fao. org/ docrep/
fao/ 008/ y7223e/ y7223e00. pdf) (PDF). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. ISSN: 1684-8241.. .
[2] Williams, J. F.; S. R. Roberts, J. E. Hill, S. C. Scardaci, and G. Tibbits. "Managing Water for Weed Control in Rice" (http:/ / www.
plantsciences. ucdavis. edu/ uccerice/ WATER/ water. htm). UC Davis, Department of Plant Sciences. . Retrieved 2007-03-14.
[3] Arid environments becoming consolidated (http:/ / ngm. nationalgeographic. com/ 2008/ 09/ soil/ mann-text. html)
[4] The History of Technology – Irrigation. Encyclopædia Britannica, 1994 edition.
[5] Dillehay TD, Eling HH Jr, Rossen J (2005). "Preceramic irrigation canals in the Peruvian Andes". Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences 102 (47): 17241–4. doi:10.1073/pnas.0508583102. PMC 1288011. PMID 16284247.
[6] Rodda, J. C. and Ubertini, Lucio (2004). The Basis of Civilization - Water Science? pg 161. International Association of Hydrological
Sciences (International Association of Hydrological Sciences Press 2004).
Irrigation 559

[7] "Ancient India Indus Valley Civilization" (http:/ / www. mnsu. edu/ emuseum/ prehistory/ india/ indus/ elements. html). Minnesota State
University "e-museum". . Retrieved 2007-01-10.
[8] "Amenemhet III" (http:/ / concise. britannica. com/ ebc/ article-9006076/ Amenemhet-III). Britannica Concise. . Retrieved 2007-01-10.
[9] "Qanat Irrigation Systems and Homegardens (Iran)" (http:/ / www. fao. org/ sd/ giahs/ other_iran1_desc. asp). Globally Important Agriculture
Heritage Systems. UN Food and Agriculture Organization. . Retrieved 2007-01-10.
[10] Encyclopædia Britannica, 1911 and 1989 editions
[11] de Silva, Sena (1998). "Reservoirs of Sri Lanka and their fisheries" (http:/ / www. fao. org/ docrep/ 003/ T0028E/ T0028E03. htm). UN
Food and Agriculture Organization. . Retrieved 2007-01-10.
[12] China – history. Encyclopædia Britannica,1994 edition.
[13] Needham, Joseph (1986). Science and Civilization in China: Volume 4, Physics and Physical Technology, Part 2, Mechanical Engineering.
Taipei: Caves Books Ltd. Pages 344-346.
[14] Needham, Volume 4, Part 2, 340-343.
[15] Needham, Volume 4, Part 2, 33, 110.
[16] Baek Seok-gi 백석기 (1987). Jang Yeong-sil 장영실. Woongjin Wiin Jeon-gi 웅진위인전기 11. Woongjin Publishing Co., Ltd.
[17] Siebert, S.; J. Hoogeveen, P. Döll, J-M. Faurès, S. Feick, and K. Frenken (2006-11-10). "The Digital Global Map of Irrigation Areas –
Development and Validation of Map Version 4" (http:/ / www. tropentag. de/ 2006/ abstracts/ full/ 211. pdf) (PDF). Tropentag 2006 –
Conference on International Agricultural Research for Development. Bonn, Germany. . Retrieved 2007-03-14.
[18] Frenken, K. (2005). "Irrigation in Africa in figures – AQUASTAT Survey – 2005" (ftp:/ / ftp. fao. org/ agl/ aglw/ docs/ wr29_eng. pdf)
(PDF). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. ISBN 92-5-105414-2. . Retrieved 2007-03-14.
[19] polyester ropes natural irrigation technique (http:/ / www. entheogen. com/ forum/ showthread. php?t=13076)
[20] Polyester rope natural irrigation technique 2 (http:/ / diyrecipes. com/ diy/ gr_tools/ article/ 0,2029,DIY_13860_2270424,00. html)
[21] DIY instructions for making sel-watering system using ropes (http:/ / www. instructables. com/ id/
Self-watering-recycled-plant-pot-for-growing-herbs/ ?utm_source=rss& utm_medium=rss)
[22] Chartres, C. and Varma, S. Out of water. From Abundance to Scarcity and How to Solve the World’s Water Problems FT Press (USA), 2010
[23] Molden, D. (Ed). Water for food, Water for life: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture. Earthscan/IWMI, 2007.
[24] ILRI, 1989, Effectiveness and Social/Environmental Impacts of Irrigation Projects: a Review. In: Annual Report 1988, International Institute
for Land Reclamation and Improvement (ILRI), Wageningen, The Netherlands, pp. 18 - 34 . On line: (http:/ / www. waterlog. info/ pdf/ irreff.
pdf)
[25] EOS magazine, september 2009
[26] World Water Council
[27] Drainage Manual: A Guide to Integrating Plant, Soil, and Water Relationships for Drainage of Irrigated Lands. Interior Dept., Bureau of
Reclamation. 1993. ISBN 0-16-061623-9
[28] "Free articles and software on drainage of waterlogged land and soil salinity control in irrgated land" (http:/ / www. waterlog. info). .
Retrieved 2010-07-28.

External links
• "Irrigation techniques" (http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/irmethods.html). USGS. Retrieved December 8, 2005.
• Sulama Sistemleri Portalı (http://www.sulamasistemleri.biz) — 19th century Irrigation in India
• Royal Engineers Museum (http://www.remuseum.org.uk/corpshistory/rem_corps_part12.htm) — 19th
century Irrigation in India
• International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) (http://www.icid.org)
• Irrigation (http://www.nal.usda.gov/wqic/irri.shtml) at the Water Quality Information Center, U.S.
Department of Agriculture
• AQUASTAT (http://www.fao.org/ag/agl/aglw/aquastat/main/index.stm) — FAO's global information
system on water and agriculture
 This article incorporates text from a publication now in the public domain: Chisholm, Hugh, ed (1911).
Encyclopædia Britannica (Eleventh ed.). Cambridge University Press.
Rainwater tank 560

Rainwater tank

Some of the rainwater tanks around CERES Community Environment Park, in Melbourne, Australia.

A rainwater tank (sometimes called rain barrels in North America or a water butt in the UK) is a water tank which
is used to collect and store rain water runoff, typically from rooftops via rain gutters. Rainwater tanks are devices for
collecting and maintaining harvested rain.
Rainwater tanks are installed to make use of rain water for later use, reduce mains water use for economic or
environmental reasons, and aid self-sufficiency. Stored water may be used for watering gardens, agriculture, flushing
toilets, in washing machines, washing cars, and also for drinking, especially when other water supplies are
unavailable, expensive, or of poor quality, and that adequate care is taken that the water is not contaminated or the
water is adequately filtered.
In ground rainwater tanks can also be used for retention of stormwater for release at a later time. In arid climates,
rain barrels are often used to store water during the rainy season for use during dryer periods.
Rainwater tanks may have a high (perceived) initial cost. However, many homes use small scale rain barrels to
harvest minute quantities of water for landscaping/gardening applications rather than as a potable water surrogate.
These small rain barrels, often recycled from food storage and transport barrels or, in some cases, whiskey and wine
aging barrels, are often inexpensive. There are also many low cost designs that use locally available materials and
village level technologies for applications in Developing Countries where there are limited alternatives for potable
drinking water.[1] While most are properly engineered to screen out mosquitoes, the lack of proper filtering or closed
loop systems may create breeding grounds for larvae. With tanks used for drinking water, the user runs a health risk
if maintenance is not carried out.[2]

Contamination and maintenance


If rainwater is used for drinking, it is often filtered first. Filtration (such as reverse osmosis or ultrafiltration) may
remove pathogens. While rain water is pure it may become contaminated during collection or by collection of
particulate matter in the air as it falls.[3] While rain water does not contain chlorine, contamination from airborne
pollutants, which settles onto rooftops, may be a risk in urban or industrial areas. Many water suppliers and health
authorities, such as the New South Wales Department of Health, do not advise using rainwater for drinking when
there is an alternative mains water supply available. However, reports of illness associated with rainwater tanks are
relatively infrequent, and public health studies in South Australia (the Australian state with the highest rainwater
usage rate) have not identified a correlation. Rainwater is generally considered fit to drink if it smells, tastes and
looks fine[4] ; However some pathogens, chemical contamination and sub-micrometre suspended metal may produce
neither smell, taste and not be visible to the eye.
Certain paints and roofing materials may cause contamination. In particular, a Melbourne Water publication advises
that lead-based paints never be used. Tar-based coatings are also not recommended, as they affect the taste of the
water. Zinc can also be a source of contamination in some paints, as well as galvanized iron[5] or zincalume roofs,
particularly when new, should not collect water for potable use. Roofs painted with acrylic paints may have
Rainwater tank 561

detergents and other chemicals dissolve in the runoff. Runoff from fibrous cement roofs should be discarded for an
entire winter, due to leaching of lime. Chemically treated timbers and lead flashing should not be used in roof
catchments. Likewise, rainwater should not be collected from parts of the roof incorporating flues from wood
burners. Overflows or discharge pipes from roof-mounted appliances such as air-conditioners or hot-water systems
should not have their discharge feed into a rainwater tank.
Copper Poisoning, a recent news article linked copper poisoning to plastic tanks, the article indicated that rainwater
was collected and stored in plastic tanks and that the tank did nothing to mitigate the low pH. [6] The water was then
brought into homes and copper piping, the copper was released by the high acid rainwater and caused poisoning in
humans. It is important to note that while the plastic tank is an inert container, the collected acid rain could and
should be analyzed, and pH adjusted before being brought into a domestic water supply system. The solution is to
monitor stored rainwater with swimming pool strips, cheap and available at swimming pool supply outlets.
If the water is too acidic, state/county/local health officials may be contacted to obtain advice and precise solutions
and pH limits and guidelines as to what should be used to treat rainwater to be used as domestic drinking water.
Maintenance includes checking roofs and rain gutters for vegetation and debris, maintaining screens around the tank,
and occasionally desludging (removing sediment by draining and cleaning the tank of algae and other contaminants).
Rainwater tanks which are not properly sealed (secured at the top) may act as breeding grounds for mosquitoes.[7]

Tanks
Rainwater tanks may be constructed from materials such as plastic
(polyethylene), concrete, galvanized steel, as well as fiberglass and
stainless steel which are rust and chemical-resistant. Tanks are usually
installed above ground, and are usually opaque to prevent the exposure
of stored water to sunlight, to decrease algal bloom.[3]
Tanks may be covered and have screen inlets to exclude insects, debris,
animals and bird droppings. Almost all steel tanks currently produced
for household rainwater collection come with a plastic inner lining to
increase the life of the tank, prevent leaks and protect the water quality.
Apart from rooftops, tanks may also be set up to collect rainwater from
concrete patios, driveways and other impervious surfaces. A plastic water container

Initial sizes typically ranged in capacity from around 400 to 100,000


litres (100 to 25,000 US gallons), today modern technology has
allowed modular and scalable applications to go into sizes of millions
of litres or hundreds of thousands of US gallons[8] .
Smaller tanks, such as the plastic 208-litre (55-gallon barrel) are also
used in some cases. Modern modular systems which are scalable, like
the 51 gallon (193 litre) Rainwater HOG module[9] and the 500 litre
(133 gallon) Stradco Aquabarrel can be used to decentralize the
rainwater catchment by storing smaller volumes at each downspout.
Larger tanks are commonly used where there is no access to a
Large polyethylene rainwater tanks being
centralised water supply. Companies such as Solar Survival
installed.
Architecture recommend a 300 gallon (1135 litre) tank for a house
supporting 2 people (if compost toilets are placed) and if your region
receives 762 mm of precipitation a year. If it receives less (between 254 mm and 762mm), 2 or 3 of these 300 gallon
Rainwater tank 562

tanks can be placed (so that more rain can be gathered at times when it does rain). Also affecting tank size is
predicted rainfall and rainfall variability; the higher prices for larger tanks; intended use of rainwater and typical
consumption for these uses; the area of roof draining into the tank; security of supply desired.
One of the greatest revolutions in the ability of harvesting rain water has been the invention of modular, scalable
systems which are installable underground. These came as an evolution of a geosynthetic applications called
drainage cells, which when stacked provide a void space volume which allows for the storing of water. Improved
and more cost effective industrial design now allow for theoretically limitless storage of water underground.
Examples of these modular structures are Atlantis Matrix Tanks[10] used in the Stormwater Treatment and Re-use
project [11], of Manly Council in Australia.

Water supply augmentation


In some cities, installation of rainwater tanks may be mandatory, or may help a new building be approved. For
example, in Victoria, Australia new houses which have rainwater tank connected to all flush toilets are given an
additional 1-star of the required 5-star House Energy Rating. Some governments subsidise purchases of rainwater
tanks or provide rebates in areas where they are considered an important means of water supply augmentation.[12]
Rainwater to supplement drinking water supplies may be seen as an alternative to other water supply options, such as
recycling or seawater desalination. Tanks are often perceived to have environmental costs that are comparatively
lower than other water supply augmentation options.
Rainwater collection can be made compatible with centralised water supply by tapping it using an electropump.
Widespread use of rain barrels also changes the amount of rainwater reaching the ground in a particular area and
draining into streams. Depending on the climate, this either helps prevent erosion, sedimentation, and/or pollution,
and can reduce the strain on stormwater drainage systems; or it could cause rivers to dry up and ponds to stagnate if
the water is diverted to a different watershed. If collected water is used in the same watershed in which it is
collected, rainwater collection actually can stabilize flow in rivers and provide more regular and filtered groundwater
transfer into ponds.

Colorado law
In the State of Colorado, USA, the installation of rainwater collection barrels is subject to the Constitution of the
State of Colorado, state statutes and case law [13] . This is a consequence of the system of water rights in the state;
the movement and holding of rainwater is inextricably linked with ownership of water rights and is enshrined in the
constitution of the State of Colorado. The use of water in Colorado and other western states is governed by what is
known as the prior appropriation doctrine. This system of water allocation controls who uses how much water, the
types of uses allowed, and when those waters can be used. This is often referred to as the priority system or "first in
time, first in right." Since all water arriving in Colorado has been allocated to "senior water right holders" since the
1850s, rainwater prevented from running downstream may not be available to its rightful owner. In 2009, legislation
in Colorado was enacted that permits capture of rain water for residential use subject to strong limitations and
conditions.[14] In order to be permitted, a residence may not be connected to a domestic water supply system serving
more than 3 single-family dwellings. The permit must be purchased from the State Engineer's office and is subject to
water usage restrictions.[15]
Rainwater tank 563

Calculating rainwater collection


Rainwater collection from roofs can be calculated using the following formulas:
• 1 inch of rain on a 1000 square feet (93 m2) roof yields 623 gallons (2358 litres) of water; or
• 1 cubic foot equals (12 inch by 12-inch (300 mm) by 12-inch (300 mm) cube) equals 7.48 gallons; or
• 1 millimeter of rain on a 1 square meter surface yields 1 litre of water.

Internal rainwater tank


Rainwater tanks or drums may be used inside a house to provide thermal mass for a trombe wall (or water wall).
Rainwater HOG modular tanks invented by Sally Dominguez to fit within building structure were used in the
Modabode House of the Future floor and on the foyer wall of the Department of Sustainability building in Anglesea,
Victoria, harnessing the high r value of the stored rainwater to add effective thermal mass to the enclosed spaces.[16]
Specially designed rainwater tanks can also be embedded in or under the concrete slab of a building (stab tank).
A house in Cape Schanck Victoria, Australia uses an internal rainwater tank to provide cooling to the living room in
summer. During winter the tank is drained and wrapped in an insulating jacket. The tank also provides structural
support to the roof, and excess water is used for domestic use including drinking.[17] [18]

References
[1] Camilli, Luis (2000) Rainwater Harvesting: constructing a cistern and gutter system using village technologies and materials [Maji Safi
Rainwater Harvesting Manual| http:/ / www. scribd. com/ doc/ 11630903/ Maji-Safi-Rainwater-Harvesting-Manual-Kiswahili-English]
[2] "Rainwater, Fact Sheet" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070216210324/ http:/ / www. greenhouse. gov. au/ yourhome/ technical/ fs22.
htm). greenhouse.gov.au: Your Home Technical Manual. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. greenhouse. gov. au/ yourhome/ technical/
fs22. htm) on 2007-02-16. . Retrieved 2007-02-17.
[3] TWDB; Chris Brown Consulting, Jan Gerston Consulting, Stephen Colley/Architecture, Dr. Hari J. Krishna, P.E., Contract Manager (2005).
The Texas Manual on Rainwater Harvesting (http:/ / www. twdb. state. tx. us/ publications/ reports/ RainwaterHarvestingManual_3rdedition.
pdf). Texas Water Development Board. p. 88 pages. .
[4] "Buying guide: Rainwater tanks" (http:/ / www. choice. com. au/ viewArticle. aspx?id=104499). CHOICE magazine. . Retrieved 2007-02-10.
[5] M.I. Magyar; V.G. Mitchell, A.R. Ladson, C. Diaper (2008). "Lead and other heavy metals: common contaminants of rainwater tanks in
Melbourne" (http:/ / www. csiro. au/ files/ files/ pk7r. pdf) (pdf). Water Down Under 2008 (CSIRO): 415. . "Aluminium and cadmium can be
an impurity in zinc galvanised iron roofs (Gromaire et al., 2001, Van Metre and Mahler, 2003) and therefore found in collected tank rainwater.
Indeed, in Study 2, the tank with high concentration of Cd collected water from a galvanised iron roof."
[6] "Copper poisoning linked to plastic water tanks" (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ local/ stories/ 2010/ 11/ 24/ 3075218. htm). ABC South East
NSW. . Retrieved 2010-11-28.
[7] The Sunday Age. November 25, 2007. "These flies! Will mozzies be next?". Stephen Cauchi quoting Luke Simpkin, Museum Victoria.
[8] (http:/ / www. atlantiscorp. com. au/ case_studies/ Case_Study_Rainwater_Harvesting_Amberley_QLD_AUSTRALIA. pdf)
[9] (http:/ / www. treehugger. com/ files/ 2007/ 12/ how_design_can. php)
[10] (http:/ / www. atlantiscorp. com. au/ case_studies/ Case_Study_Rainwater_Harvesting_Manly_NSW_Australia. pdf) Case study of use of
Matrix Tanks for stormwater harvesting
[11] http:/ / www. manly. nsw. gov. au/ content. aspx?pageid=712|Manly
[12] "Energy efficiency for Victoria, action plan" (http:/ / www. sustainability. vic. gov. au/ resources/ documents/ Energy_Effeciency. pdf)
(pdf). . Retrieved 2007-05-22.
[13] "Water harvesting in Colorado" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070816004100/ http:/ / water. state. co. us/ pubs/ policies/
waterharvesting. pdf) (pdf). Archived from the original (http:/ / water. state. co. us/ pubs/ policies/ waterharvesting. pdf) on 2007-08-16. .
Retrieved 2007-08-30.
[14] Colorado Division of Water Resources (2009-07-01). "New information on rainwater collection legislation" (http:/ / water. state. co. us/
pubs/ pdf/ RainWaterBills. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-07-13.
[15] Colorado General Assembly (2009-07-01). "Colorado Senate Bill 09-080" (http:/ / www. leg. state. co. us/ clics/ clics2009a/ csl. nsf/
billcontainers/ 49D4349AC4A73794872575370071F5D4/ $FILE/ 080_enr. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-11-07.
[16] (http:/ / www. thecoolhunter. net/ eco-world/ ECO-HOME/ )
[17] materialicious » Blog Archive » cape schanck house, paul morgan architects (http:/ / materialicio. us/ 2008/ 02/ 07/
cape-schank-house-paul-morgan-architects/ )
[18] architecture.com.au - The Royal Australian Institute of Architects (RAIA), architecture, architects, design, australia (http:/ / www.
globalconstruct. net/ awards_search?option=showaward& entryno=2007030374)
Rainwater tank 564

• Rainwater Tanks (http://www.health.nsw.gov.au/public-health/ehb/water/pdf/rainwatertanks.pdf) (PDF),


NSW Health
• WSUD Engineering Procedures: Stormwater. Robin Allison, Matt Francey. 2005 (Melbourne Water). Published
by CSIRO Publishing.
• Standard Methods for the Examination of Water and Wastewater (http://www.standardmethods.org/)
(standardmethods.org)

External links

Building water barrels and tanks


• Constructing a low cost rainwater harvesting system for drinking water in rural Tanzania, East Africa (http://
www.scribd.com/doc/11630903/Maji-Safi-Rainwater-Harvesting-Manual-Kiswahili-English)
• Building a water barrel system (http://www.emmitsburg.net/gardens/articles/adams/audrey/water_barrel.
htm)
• Example and instructions for closed barrel system (http://www.ochshorndesign.com/practice/06-02/06-02.
html)
• Rain barrel construction - Great Lakes Green Initiative (http://www.glgi.org/mediawiki/index.
php?title=Rain_barrel)
• Code of Federal Register - CFR Title 21 Part 129 (http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cdrh/cfdocs/cfcfr/
CFRSearch.cfm?CFRPart=129) Helpful information and water tank installation instructions. This is a US
Government document, published as part of the Federal Register, these are both government rules and guidelines
of water tank installations.
• The Texas Manual on Rainwater Harvesting (http://www.twdb.state.tx.us/publications/reports/
RainwaterHarvestingManual_3rdedition.pdf)
• Article regarding water harvesting, water butts, maintenance and so on (http://www.layman.org.uk/
water-butts-water-harvesting/)
• Guide on saving water around the garden. (http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/Environmentandgreenerliving/
Greenergarden/DG_064410)
• Waterwise - Reducing Water in the UK house (http://www.waterwise.org.uk/
reducing_water_wastage_in_the_uk/house_and_garden/water_butts.html)
Sustainable development 565

Sustainable development
Sustainable development (SD) is a pattern
of resource use, that aims to meet human
needs while preserving the environment so
that these needs can be met not only in the
present, but also for generations to come
(sometimes taught as ELF-Environment,
Local people, Future). The term was used by
the Brundtland Commission which coined
what has become the most often-quoted
definition of sustainable development as
development that "meets the needs of the
present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own
Solar towers utilize the natural resource of the Sun, and are a renewable energy
needs."[1] [2] source. From left: PS10 and PS20 solar towers.

Sustainable development ties together


concern for the carrying capacity of natural systems with the social challenges facing humanity. As early as the
1970s "sustainability" was employed to describe an economy "in equilibrium with basic ecological support
systems."[3] Ecologists have pointed to The Limits to Growth, and presented the alternative of a "steady state
economy"[4] in order to address environmental concerns.
The field of sustainable development can be conceptually broken into three constituent parts: environmental
sustainability, economic sustainability and sociopolitical sustainability.

Scope and definitions


Sustainable development does not focus
solely on environmental issues.
In 1987, the United Nations released the
Brundtland Report, which defines
sustainable development as 'development
which meets the needs of the present
without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs.'[7]

The United Nations 2005 World Summit


Outcome Document refers to the
"interdependent and mutually reinforcing
pillars" of sustainable development as
economic development, social development,
and environmental protection.[8]
A representation of sustainability showing how both economic and societal values
[5]
Indigenous peoples have argued, through are constrained by environmental limits (2003)

various international forums such as the


United Nations Permanent Forum on
Sustainable development 566

Indigenous Issues and the Convention on


Biological Diversity, that there are four
pillars of sustainable development, the
fourth being cultural. The Universal
Declaration on Cultural Diversity
(UNESCO, 2001) further elaborates the
concept by stating that "...cultural diversity
is as necessary for humankind as
biodiversity is for nature”; it becomes “one
of the roots of development understood not
simply in terms of economic growth, but
also as a means to achieve a more
satisfactory intellectual, emotional, moral
and spiritual existence". In this vision,
cultural diversity is the fourth policy area of Scheme of sustainable development: at the confluence of three constituent
sustainable development. parts.(2006)<ref name=Adams2006>Adams, W.M. (2006). "The Future of
Sustainability: Re-thinking Environment and Development in the Twenty-first
[6]
Economic Sustainability: Agenda 21 clearly Century." Report of the IUCN Renowned Thinkers Meeting, 29–31 January
2006. Retrieved on: 2009-02-16.</ref><ref>UCN. 2006. The Future of
identified information, integration, and
Sustainability: Re-thinking Environment and Development in the Twenty-first
participation as key building blocks to help Century. Report of the IUCN Renowned Thinkers Meeting, 29–31 January 2006
[6]
countries achieve development that </ref>
recognises these interdependent pillars. It
emphasises that in sustainable development everyone is a user and provider of information. It stresses the need to
change from old sector-centred ways of doing business to new approaches that involve cross-sectoral co-ordination
and the integration of environmental and social concerns into all development processes. Furthermore, Agenda 21
emphasises that broad public participation in decision making is a fundamental prerequisite for achieving sustainable
development.[9]

According to Hasna Vancock, sustainability is a process which tells of a development of all aspects of human life
affecting sustenance. It means resolving the conflict between the various competing goals, and involves the
simultaneous pursuit of economic prosperity, environmental quality and social equity famously known as three
dimensions (triple bottom line) with the resultant vector being technology, hence it is a continually evolving process;
the 'journey' (the process of achieving sustainability) is of course vitally important, but only as a means of getting to
the destination (the desired future state). However, the 'destination' of sustainability is not a fixed place in the normal
sense that we understand destination. Instead, it is a set of wishful characteristics of a future system.[10]
Sustainable development 567

The concept has included notions of weak sustainability, strong


sustainability and deep ecology.
Green development is generally differentiated from sustainable
development in that Green development prioritizes what its proponents
consider to be environmental sustainability over economic and cultural
considerations. Proponents of Sustainable Development argue that it
provides a context in which to improve overall sustainability where
cutting edge Green development is unattainable. For example, a cutting
edge treatment plant with extremely high maintenance costs may not
be sustainable in regions of the world with fewer financial resources.
An environmentally ideal plant that is shut down due to bankruptcy is
obviously less sustainable than one that is maintainable by the
community, even if it is somewhat less effective from an
environmental standpoint.

Some research activities start from this definition to argue that the
environment is a combination of nature and culture. The Network of
Excellence "Sustainable Development in a Diverse World",[11]
sponsored by the European Union, integrates multidisciplinary The natural resource of wind powers these 5MW
wind turbines on this wind farm 28 km off the
capacities and interprets cultural diversity as a key element of a new
coast of Belgium.
strategy for sustainable development.

Still other researchers view environmental and social challenges as opportunities for development action. This is
particularly true in the concept of sustainable enterprise that frames these global needs as opportunities for private
enterprise to provide innovative and entrepreneurial solutions. This view is now being taught at many business
schools including the Center for Sustainable Global Enterprise at Cornell University and the Erb Institute for Global
Sustainable Enterprise at the University of Michigan.
The United Nations Division for Sustainable Development lists the following areas as coming within the scope of
sustainable development:[12]
Sustainable development is an eclectic concept, as a wide array of views fall under its umbrella. The concept has
included notions of weak sustainability, strong sustainability and deep ecology. Different conceptions also reveal a
strong tension between ecocentrism and anthropocentrism. Many definitions and images (Visualizing Sustainability)
[13]
of sustainable development coexist. Broadly defined, the sustainable development mantra enjoins current
generations to take a systems approach to growth and development and to manage natural, produced, and social
capital for the welfare of their own and future generations.
During the last ten years, different organizations have tried to measure and monitor the proximity to what they
consider sustainability by implementing what has been called sustainability metrics and indices.[14]
Sustainable development is said to set limits on the developing world. While current first world countries polluted
significantly during their development, the same countries encourage third world countries to reduce pollution,
which sometimes impedes growth. Some consider that the implementation of sustainable development would mean a
reversion to pre-modern lifestyles.[15]
Others have criticized the overuse of the term:
"[The] word sustainable has been used in too many situations today, and ecological sustainability is one of
those terms that confuse a lot of people. You hear about sustainable development, sustainable growth,
sustainable economies, sustainable societies, sustainable agriculture. Everything is sustainable (Temple,
1992)."[15]
Sustainable development 568

Environmental sustainability
Environmental sustainability is the process of making sure
current processes of interaction with the environment are
pursued with the idea of keeping the environment as pristine
as naturally possible based on ideal-seeking behavior.
An "unsustainable situation" occurs when natural capital (the
sum total of nature's resources) is used up faster than it can be
replenished. Sustainability requires that human activity only
uses nature's resources at a rate at which they can be
replenished naturally. Inherently the concept of sustainable
development is intertwined with the concept of carrying
capacity. Theoretically, the long-term result of environmental
degradation is the inability to sustain human life. Such
degradation on a global scale could imply extinction for
humanity.
Water is an important natural resource that covers 71% of
the Earth's surface. Image is the Earth photographed from
Apollo 17.

Consumption of renewable resources State of environment Sustainability

More than nature's ability to replenish Environmental degradation Not sustainable

Equal to nature's ability to replenish Environmental equilibrium Steady state economy

Less than nature's ability to replenish Environmental renewal Environmentally sustainable

The notion of capital in sustainable development


The sustainable development debate is
based on the assumption that societies need
to manage three types of capital (economic,
social, and natural), which may be
non-substitutable and whose consumption
might be irreversible.[16] Daly (1991),[17] for
example, points to the fact that natural
capital can not necessarily be substituted by
economic capital. While it is possible that
we can find ways to replace some natural
resources, it is much more unlikely that they
will ever be able to replace eco-system
services, such as the protection provided by
Deforestation of native rain forest in Rio de Janeiro City for extraction of clay for
civil engineering (2009 picture).
the ozone layer, or the climate stabilizing
function of the Amazonian forest. In fact
natural capital, social capital and economic capital are often complementarities. A further obstacle to substitutability
lies also in the multi-functionality of many natural resources. Forests, for example, not only provide the raw material
for paper (which can be substituted quite easily), but they also maintain biodiversity, regulate water flow, and absorb
CO2.
Sustainable development 569

Another problem of natural and social capital deterioration lies in their partial irreversibility. The loss in biodiversity,
for example, is often definite. The same can be true for cultural diversity. For example with globalisation advancing
quickly the number of indigenous languages is dropping at alarming rates. Moreover, the depletion of natural and
social capital may have non-linear consequences. Consumption of natural and social capital may have no observable
impact until a certain threshold is reached. A lake can, for example, absorb nutrients for a long time while actually
increasing its productivity. However, once a certain level of algae is reached lack of oxygen causes the lake’s
ecosystem to break down suddenly.

Market failure
If the degradation of natural and social capital has such
important consequence the question arises why action is
not taken more systematically to alleviate it. Cohen and
Winn (2007)[18] point to four types of market failure as
possible explanations: First, while the benefits of natural
or social capital depletion can usually be privatized the
costs are often externalized (i.e. they are borne not by the
party responsible but by society in general). Second,
natural capital is often undervalued by society since we
are not fully aware of the real cost of the depletion of
natural capital. Information asymmetry is a third Before flue gas desulfurization was installed, the air-polluting
reason—often the link between cause and effect is emissions from this power plant in New Mexico contained
excessive amounts of sulfur dioxide.
obscured, making it difficult for actors to make informed
choices. Cohen and Winn close with the realization that
contrary to economic theory many firms are not perfect optimizers. They postulate that firms often do not optimize
resource allocation because they are caught in a "business as usual" mentality.

The business case for sustainable development


The most broadly accepted criterion for corporate sustainability constitutes a firm’s efficient use of natural capital.
This eco-efficiency is usually calculated as the economic value added by a firm in relation to its aggregated
ecological impact.[19] This idea has been popularised by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development
(WBCSD) under the following definition: "Eco-efficiency is achieved by the delivery of competitively priced goods
and services that satisfy human needs and bring quality of life, while progressively reducing ecological impacts and
resource intensity throughout the life-cycle to a level at least in line with the earth’s carrying capacity." (DeSimone
and Popoff, 1997: 47)[20]

Similar to the eco-efficiency concept but so far less explored is the second criterion for corporate sustainability.
Socio-efficiency[21] describes the relation between a firm's value added and its social impact. Whereas, it can be
assumed that most corporate impacts on the environment are negative (apart from rare exceptions such as the
planting of trees) this is not true for social impacts. These can be either positive (e.g. corporate giving, creation of
employment) or negative (e.g. work accidents, mobbing of employees, human rights abuses). Depending on the type
of impact socio-efficiency thus either tries to minimize negative social impacts (i.e. accidents per value added) or
maximise positive social impacts (i.e. donations per value added) in relation to the value added.
Both eco-efficiency and socio-efficiency are concerned primarily with increasing economic sustainability. In this
process they instrumentalize both natural and social capital aiming to benefit from win-win situations. However, as
Dyllick and Hockerts[21] point out the business case alone will not be sufficient to realise sustainable development.
They point towards eco-effectiveness, socio-effectiveness, sufficiency, and eco-equity as four criteria that need to be
Sustainable development 570

met if sustainable development is to be reached..

Critique of the concept of sustainable development


The concept of "Sustainable Development" raises
several critiques at different levels.

Purpose
Various writers have commented on the population
control agenda that seems to underlie the concept of
sustainable development. Maria Sophia Aguirre
writes:[22]
"Sustainable development is a policy
approach that has gained quite a lot of
popularity in recent years, especially in
international circles. By attaching a
Deforestation and increased road-building in the Amazon Rainforest
specific interpretation to sustainability,
are a significant concern because of increased human encroachment
population control policies have become upon wilderness areas, increased resource extraction and further
the overriding approach to development, threats to biodiversity.
thus becoming the primary tool used to
“promote” economic development in developing countries and to protect the environment."

Mary Jo Anderson suggests that the real purpose of sustainable development is to contain and limit economic
development in developing countries, and in so doing control population growth.[23] It is suggested that this is the
reason the main focus of most programs is still on low-income agriculture. Joan Veon, a businesswoman and
international reporter, who covered 64 global meetings on sustainable development posits that:[24]
"Sustainable development has continued to evolve as that of protecting the world's resources while its
true agenda is to control the world's resources. It should be noted that Agenda 21 sets up the global
infrastructure needed to manage, count, and control all of the world's assets."

Consequences
John Baden[25] views the notion of sustainable
development as dangerous because the consequences
have unknown effects. He writes: "In economy like in
ecology, the interdependence rule applies. Isolated
actions are impossible. A policy which is not carefully
enough thought will carry along various perverse and
adverse effects for the ecology as much as for the
economy. Many suggestions to save our environment
and to promote a model of 'sustainable development' The retreat of Aletsch Glacier in the Swiss Alps (situation in 1979,
risk indeed leading to reverse effects."[26] Moreover, he 1991 and 2002) due to warming.
evokes the bounds of public action which are
underlined by the public choice theory: the quest by politicians of their own interests, lobby pressure, partial
disclosure etc. He develops his critique by noting the vagueness of the expression, which can cover anything . It is a
gateway to interventionist proceedings which can be against the principle of freedom and without proven efficacy.
Sustainable development 571

Against this notion, he is a proponent of private property to impel the producers and the consumers to save the
natural resources. According to Baden, “the improvement of environment quality depends on the market economy
and the existence of legitimate and protected property rights.” They enable the effective practice of personal
responsibility and the development of mechanisms to protect the environment. The State can in this context “create
conditions which encourage the people to save the environment.”[27]

Vagueness of the term


Some criticize the term "sustainable development",
stating that the term is too vague. For example, both
Jean-Marc Jancovici[28] or the philosopher Luc
Ferry[29] express this view. The latter writes about
sustainable development: "I know that this term is
obligatory, but I find it also absurd, or rather so vague
that it says nothing." Luc Ferry adds that the term is
trivial by a proof of contradiction: "who would like to
be a proponent of an “untenable development! Of
course no one! [..] The term is more charming than
meaningful. [..] Everything must be done so that it does
not turn into Russian-type administrative planning with
ill effects." sustainable development has become A sewage treatment plant that uses environmentally friendly solar
energy, located at Santuari de Lluc monastery.
obscured by conflicting world views, the expansionist
and the ecological, and risks being co-opted by
individuals and institutions that perpetuate many aspects of the expansionist model.[30]

Basis
Sylvie Brunel, French geographer and specialist of the Third World, develops in A qui profite le développement
durable (Who benefits from sustainable development?) (2008) a critique of the basis of sustainable development,
with its binary vision of the world, can be compared to the Christian vision of Good and Evil, an idealized nature
where the human being is an animal like the others or even an alien. Nature – as Rousseau thought – is better than
the human being. It is a parasite, harmful for the nature. But the human is the one who protects the biodiversity,
where normally only the strong survive.[31]

Moreover, she thinks that the core ideas of sustainable development are a hidden form of protectionism by developed
countries impeding the development of the other countries.[how?] For Sylvie Brunel, sustainable development serves
as a pretext for protectionism and "I have the feeling that sustainable development is perfectly helping out
capitalism".[31]

"De-growth"
The proponents of the de-growth reckon that the term of sustainable development is an oxymoron. According to
them, on a planet where 20% of the population consumes 80% of the natural resources, a sustainable development
cannot be possible for this 20%: "According to the origin of the concept of sustainable development, a development
which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs,
the right term for the developed countries should be a sustainable de-growth".[32]
Sustainable development 572

Measurability
In 2007 a report for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency stated: “While much discussion and effort has gone
into sustainability indicators, none of the resulting systems clearly tells us whether our society is sustainable. At best,
they can tell us that we are heading in the wrong direction, or that our current activities are not sustainable. More
often, they simply draw our attention to the existence of problems, doing little to tell us the origin of those problems
and nothing to tell us how to solve them.”[33] Nevertheless a majority of authors assume that a set of well defined and
harmonised indicators is the only way to make sustainability tangible. Those indicators are expected to be identified
and adjusted through empirical observations (trial and error)[34] see also Ecological footprint.
The most common critiques are related to issues like data quality, comparability, objective function and the
necessary resources.[35] However a more general criticism is coming from the project management community: How
can a sustainable development be achieved at global level if we cannot monitor it in any single project?[36] [37]
The Cuban-born researcher and entrepreneur Sonia Bueno suggests an alternative approach that is based upon the
integral, long-term cost-benefit relationship as a measure and monitoring tool for the sustainability of every project,
activity or enterprise.[38] [39] Furthermore this concept aims to be a practical guideline towards sustainable
development following the principle of conservation and increment of value rather than restricting the consumption
of resources.

Sustainable development in economics


The Venn diagram of sustainable development shown above has many versions,[40] but was first used by economist
Edward Barbier (1987).[41] However, Pearce, Barbier and Markandya (1989)[42] criticized the Venn approach due to
the intractability of operationalizing separate indices of economic, environmental, and social sustainability and
somehow combining them. They also noted that the Venn approach was inconsistent with the Brundtland
Commission Report, which emphasized the interlinkages between economic development, environmental
degradation, and population pressure instead of three objectives. Economists have since focused on viewing the
economy and the environment as a single interlinked system with a unified valuation methodology (Hamilton
1999,[43] Dasgupta 2007).[44] Intergenerational equity can be incorporated into this approach, as has become
common in economic valuations of climate change economics (Heal,2009).[45] Ruling out discrimination against
future generations and allowing for the possibility of renewable alternatives to petro-chemicals and other
non-renewable resources, efficient policies are compatible with increasing human welfare, eventually reaching a
golden-rule steady state (Ayong le Kama, 2001[46] and Endress et al.2005).[47] Thus the three pillars of sustainable
development are interlinkages, intergenerational equity, and dynamic efficiency (Stavins, et al. 2003).[48]
Arrow et al. (2004)[49] and other economists (e.g. Asheim,1999[50] and Pezzey, 1989[51] and 1997)[52] have
advocated a form of the weak criterion for sustainable development – the requirement than the wealth of a society,
including human-capital, knowledge-capital and natural-capital (as well as produced capital) not decline over time.
Others, including Barbier 2007,[53] continue to contend that strong sustainability – non-depletion of essential forms
of natural capital – may be appropriate.
Sustainable development 573

References
[1] United Nations. 1987. "Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development." (http:/ / www. un. org/ documents/ ga/ res/ 42/
ares42-187. htm) General Assembly Resolution 42/187, 11 December 1987. Retrieved: 2007-04-12
[2] Smith, Charles; Rees, Gareth (1998). Economic Development, 2nd edition. Basingstoke: Macmillan. ISBN 0333722280.
[3] Stivers, R. 1976. The Sustainable Society: Ethics and Economic Growth. Philadelphia: Westminster Press.
[4] Daly, H. E. 1973. Towards a Steady State Economy. San Francisco: Freeman. Daly, H. E. 1991. Steady-State Economics (2nd ed.).
Washington, D.C.: Island Press.
[5] Ott, K. (2003). "The Case for Strong Sustainability." (http:/ / umwethik. botanik. uni-greifswald. de/ booklet/ 8_strong_sustainability. pdf) In:
Ott, K. & P. Thapa (eds.) (2003).Greifswald’s Environmental Ethics. Greifswald: Steinbecker Verlag Ulrich Rose. ISBN 3931483320.
Retrieved on: 2009-02-16.
[6] http:/ / cmsdata. iucn. org/ downloads/ iucn_future_of_sustanability. pdf
[7] Our Common Future, Chapter 2: Towards Sustainable Development (http:/ / www. un-documents. net/ ocf-02. htm)
[8] 2005 World Summit Outcome Document (http:/ / www. who. int/ hiv/ universalaccess2010/ worldsummit. pdf), World Health Organization,
15 September 2005
[9] Will Allen. 2007. "Learning for Sustainability: Sustainable Development." (http:/ / learningforsustainability. net/ susdev/ )
[10] Hasna, A. M. (2007). "Dimensions of sustainability". Journal of Engineering for Sustainable Development: Energy, Environment, and
Health 2 (1): 47–57.
[11] SUS.DIV (http:/ / www. susdiv. org/ )
[12] United Nations Division for sustainable Development. Documents: Sustainable Development Issues (http:/ / www. un. org/ esa/ sustdev/
documents/ docs_sdissues. htm) Retrieved: 2007-05-12
[13] http:/ / computingforsustainability. wordpress. com/ 2009/ 03/ 15/ visualising-sustainability/
[14] Boulanger, P. M. (2008) “Sustainable development indicators: a scientific challenge, a democratic issue”. S.A.P.I.EN.S. 1 (1) (http:/ / sapiens.
revues. org/ index166. html)
[15] What Is Sustainable Development? (http:/ / www. menominee. edu/ sdi/ whatis. htm)
[16] Dyllick, T. & Hockerts, K. 2002. Beyond the business case for corporate sustainability. Business Strategy and the Environment, 11(2):
130-141
[17] Daly, H. E. 1973. Towards a Steady State Economy. San Francisco: Freeman.
[18] Cohen, B. & Winn, M. I. 2007. Market imperfections, opportunity and sustainable entrepreneurship. Journal of Business Venturing, 22(1):
29-49.
[19] Schaltegger, S. & Sturm, A. 1998. Eco-Efficiency by Eco-Controlling. Zürich: vdf.
[20] DeSimone, L. & Popoff, F. 1997. Eco-efficiency: The business link to sustainable development. Cambridge: MIT Press.
[21] Dyllick, T. & Hockerts, K. 2002. Beyond the business case for corporate sustainability. Business Strategy and the Environment, 11(2):
130-141.
[22] Aguirre, M.S., 2002. Sustainable development: why the focus on population? International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 29, 12: 923 -
945
[23] Anderson, M.J., 2002. Sustainable development (http:/ / www. wf-f. org/ 02-1-UNSustainableDev. html), WFF Voices Online Edition Vol.
XVII, 1.
[24] Sustainable development, Agenda 21 and Prince Charles (http:/ / www. newswithviews. com/ Veon/ joan19. htm)
[25] chairman of the Foundation for Research on Economics and the Environment (FREE)
[26] Euro92.com (http:/ / www. euro92. com/ acrob/ baden. pdf), "L'économie politique du développement durable", John Baden, document de
l'ICREI
[27] « L'économie politique du développement durable (http:/ / www. euro92. com/ acrob/ baden. pdf) », John Baden, document de l'ICREI
[28] « À quoi sert le développement durable ? » (http:/ / www. manicore. com/ documentation/ dd. html)
[29] « Protéger l'espèce humaine contre elle-même », entretien avec Luc Ferry dans la Revue des Deux Mondes, octobre-novembre 2007,
pp.75-79
[30] Duncan Taylor, “Disagreeing on the Basics: Environmental Debates Reflect Competing World Views, Alternatives, 1992.
[31] « Les enjeux internationaux », entretien avec Sylvie Brunel sur France Culture, 11 juin 2008
[32] Bruno Clémentin et Vincent Cheynet, Contre le développement durable (http:/ / www. decroissance. org/ index. php?chemin=textes/
dev_en_question. htm)
[33] Joy E. Hecht, Can Indicators and Accounts Really Measure Sustainability? Considerations for the U.S. Environmental Protection (http:/ /
www. epa. gov/ sustainability/ pdfs/ hecht-epa-ord-paper. pdf)
[34] KM.FAO.org (http:/ / km. fao. org/ uploads/ media/ An adaptative learning process for developing and applying sustainability indicators
with local communities. pdf) "An adaptive learning process for developing and applying sustainability indicators with local communities".
Ecological economics 59 (2006) 406-418
[35] Annette Lang, Ist Nachhaltigkeit messbar?, Uni Hannover, 2003 (http:/ / www. nse-netz. de/ downloads/ nachh. pdf)
[36] Project Management T-kit, Council of Europe and European Commission, Strasbourg, 2000 (http:/ / youth-partnership-eu. coe. int/
youth-partnership/ documents/ Publications/ T_kits/ 3/ tkit3. pdf)
Sustainable development 574

[37] Do global targets matter?, The Environment Times, Poverty Times #4, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2010 (http:/ / www. grida. no/ publications/
et/ ep4/ page/ 2653. aspx)
[38] Sostenibilidad en la construcción. Calidad integral y rentabilidad en instalaciones hidro-sanitarias, Revista de Arquitectura e Ingeniería,
Matanzas, 2009 (http:/ / www. empai-matanzas. co. cu/ revista/ REVISTA_archivos/ Page969. htm)
[39] Transforming the water and waste water infrastructure into an efficient, profitable and sustainable system, Revista de Arquitectura e
Ingeniería, Matanzas, 2010 (http:/ / www. empai-matanzas. co. cu/ revista/ Artic_PDF/ ART5. pdf)
[40] Visualising Sustainability (http:/ / computingforsustainability. wordpress. com/ 2009/ 03/ 15/ visualising-sustainability/ ). Posted by Samuel
Mann under Computing for Sustainability, visualisingsustainability
[41] Barbier, E.,1987. The Concept of Sustainable Economic Development. Environmental Conservation, 14(2):101-110
[42] Pearce, D., A. Markandya and E. Barbier,1989. Blueprint for a green economy, Earthscan, London, Great Britain
[43] Hamilton, K., and M. Clemens,1999. Genuine savings rates in developing countries. World Bank Econ Review, 13(2):333–56
[44] Dasgupta, P. 2007. The idea of sustainable development,Sustainability Science, 2(1):5-11
[45] Heal, G., 2009. Climate Economics: A Meta-Review and Some Suggestions for Future Research, Review of Environmental Economics and
Policy, 3(1):4-21
[46] Ayong Le Kama, 2001 A.D. Ayong Le Kama, Sustainable growth renewable resources, and pollution, Journal of Economic Dynamics and
Control, 25:1911–1918
[47] Endress, L., J. Roumasset, and T. Zhou. 2005. Sustainable Growth with Environmental Spillovers,"Journal of Economic Behavior and
Organization," 58(4):527-547,
[48] Stavins, R., A. Wagner, G. Wagner Interpreting Sustainability in Economic Terms: Dynamic Efficiency Plus Intergenerational Equity,
Economic Letters, 79:339-343
[49] Arrow KJ, P. Dasgupta, L. Goulder, G Daily, PR Ehrlich, GM Heal, S Levin, K-G Maler, S Schneider, DA Starrett, B Walker. 2004. Are we
consuming too much? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3):147–172
[50] Asheim, G. 1999. Economic analysis of sustainability. In: W.M. Lafferty and O. Langhalle, Editors, Towards Sustainable Development, St.
Martins Press, New York, p. 159
[51] Pezzey, J. 1989. Economic Analysis of Sustainable Growth and Sustainable Development, Environmental department Working Paper No.
15, World Bank.
[52] Pezzey, J. (1997). "Sustainability constraints versus 'optimality' versus intertemporal concern, and axioms versus data". Land Economics
(University of Wisconsin Press) 73 (4): 448–466. doi:10.2307/3147239. JSTOR 3147239.
[53] Barbier, E. 2007 Natural Resources and Economic Development, Cambridge University Press

Further reading
• Book Review (http://ejournal.nbii.org/archives/vol4iss1/book.rogers.html) on An Introduction to
Sustainable Development by Peter Rogers, Kazi Jalal, & John Boyd Sustainability: Science, Practice, & Policy
(http://ejournal.nbii.org), Published online June 18, 2008
• Beyerlin, Ulrich. Sustainable Development (http://www.mpepil.com/sample_article?id=/epil/entries/
law-9780199231690-e1609&recno=13&), Max Planck Encyclopedia of Public International Law
• Pezzey, J; M. Toman (January 2002). "The Economics of Sustainability:A Review of Journal Articles" (http://
www.rff.org/documents/RFF-DP-02-03.pdf). Resources for the Future DP 02-03: 1–36. Retrieved
2009-06-16.
• Mark Jarzombek, "Sustainability - Architecture: between Fuzzy Systems and Wicked Problems," Blueprints 21/1
(Winter 2003), pp. 6–9.
• Wallace, Bill (2005). Becoming part of the solution : the engineer’s guide to sustainable development.
Washington, DC: American Council of Engineering Companies. ISBN 0910090378.
Sustainable development 575

External links
• Globe Awards-the Leading Sustainability Awards (http://www.globeaward.org/)
• CII - ITC Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Development (http://www.sustainabledevelopment.in/)
• The Sustainable Development Research Program of the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (http://www.feem.it/
getpage.aspx?id=86&sez=Research&padre=18&sub=70)
• European Sustainable Development Network - ESDN (http://www.sd-network.eu/) - Sustainable development
policies and strategies in Europe
• World Bank (http://go.worldbank.org/7IS3KBWK20) website on sustainable development.
• Erb Institute for Global Sustainable Enterprise at the University of Michigan (http://www.erb.umich.edu)
• World Creative Youth Forum (WCYF) 2009 (http://www.worldcreativeyouthforum.net) - Upcoming
international youth forum on Education for Sustainable Development in May 2009 in the Philippines
• WWW-Virtual Library Sustainable development (http://www.ulb.ac.be/ceese/meta/sustvl.html) - Links to
sustainable development sources
• World Business Council for Sustainable Development (http://www.wbcsd.org/)
• The Center for Sustainable Global Enterprise (http://www.johnson.cornell.edu/sge/) at Cornell University
views environmental and social needs as business opportunities.
• U.K. Sustainable Development Commission (http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/)
• Appropedia - a Wiki focused on sustainable international development and poverty reduction
• Citizens Network for Sustainable Development (http://www.citnet.org/)
• Sustainable Development Law & Policy (http://www.wcl.american.edu/org/sustainabledevelopment)
• Stakeholder Forum for a Sustainable Future (http://www.stakeholderforum.org)
• Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Pakistan (http://www.sdpi.org)
• Consilience: The Journal of Sustainable Development, based at Columbia University (http://consiliencejournal.
readux.org/)
• Peter Ainsworth on degrowth and sustainable development (http://cle.ens-lyon.fr/82582439/0/
fiche___pagelibre/&RH=CDL_ANG000000) Published on La Clé des langues
ltg:Tvereiguo raisteiba
Weather control 576

Weather control
Weather control is the act of
manipulating or altering certain aspects
of the environment to produce
desirable changes in weather. Weather
control can have the goal of preventing
damaging weather, such as hurricanes
or tornadoes, from occurring; of
causing beneficial weather, such as
rainfall in an area experiencing
drought; or of provoking damaging
weather against an enemy or rival, as a
tactic of military or economic warfare.
Weather modification in warfare has
been banned by the United Nations.
A tornado in central Oklahoma. Weather control researchers aspire to eliminate or control
dangerous types of weather such as this.

History
In ancient India it is said that yajna or vedic rituals of chanting
manthras and offering were performed by rishis to bring sudden bursts
of rain fall in rain starved regions. Some American Indians like some
Europeans had rituals which they believed could induce rain. The
Finnish people, on the other hand, were believed by others to be able to
control weather. As a result, Vikings refused to take Finns on their
oceangoing raids. Remnants of this superstition lasted into the
twentieth century, with some ship crews being reluctant to accept
Finnish sailors. The early modern era saw people observe that during
battles the firing of cannons and other firearms often initiated
precipitation. Magical and religious practices to control the weather are
attested in a variety of cultures. In Greek mythology, Iphigenia was
offered as a human sacrifice to appease the wrath of the goddess
Artemis, who had becalmed the Achaean fleet at Aulis at the beginning
Witches concoct a brew to summon a hailstorm.
of the Trojan War. In Homer's Odyssey, Aeolus, keeper of the winds,
bestowed Odysseus and his crew with a gift of the four winds in a bag.
However, the sailors opened the bag while Odysseus slept, looking for booty, and as a result were blown off course
by the resulting gale.[1] In ancient Rome, the lapis manalis was a sacred stone kept outside the walls of Rome in a
temple of Mars. When Rome suffered from drought, the stone was dragged into the city.[2] The Berwick witches of
Scotland were found guilty of using black magic to summon storms to murder King James VI of Scotland by seeking
to sink the ship upon which he travelled.[3] Scandinavian witches allegedly claimed to sell the wind in bags or
magically confined into wooden staves; they sold the bags to seamen who could release them when becalmed.[4] In
various towns of Navarre, prayers petitioned Saint Peter to grant rain in time of drought. If the rain was not
forthcoming, the statue of St Peter was removed from the church and tossed into a river.[5]
Weather control 577

Perhaps the first example of practical weather control is the lightning rod. In the 1950s, computer scientist John von
Neumann, an early theorizer on weather control, surmized that if Earth were to enter another ice age, a preventative
solution would be to dump dirt (or spray soot from cropdusting planes) on the surface of the planet's glaciers. He
noted that this would significantly change their reflectivity (albedo), and thus increase the solar energy retained by
the planet. Such a strategy would require repeated applications, as storms would cover some portion of the soot with
new snow until their frequency and range abated. The theoretical efficacy of von Neumann's proposal remains to be
examined. Wilhelm Reich performed cloudbusting experiments in the 1950s to 1960s, the results of which are
controversial and not widely accepted by mainstream science. Dr Walter Russell wrote of weather control in Atomic
Suicide 1956. Jack Toyer in the 1970s built a rainmaker on Palmers Island near Grafton using a solar mirror,
electromagnetic static charge, and infra red frequencies of light to induce weather in regional areas within Australia.
His work was continued by his successor, Peter Stevens.
In January, 2011, several newspapers and magazines, including the UK's Sunday Times and Arabian Business,
reported that scientists backed by the government of Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, had created
over 50 artificial rainstorms between July and August of 2010 near Al Ain, a city which lies close to the country's
border with Oman and is the second-largest city in the Abu Dhabi Emirate. The artificial rainstorms were said to
have sometimes caused hail, gales and thunderstorms, baffling local residents.[6] The scientists reportedly used
ionizers to create the rainstorms, and although the results are disputed, the large number of times it is recorded to
have rained right after the ionizers were switched on during a usually dry season is encouraging to those who support
the experiment.[7]

Cloud seeding for rain


Cloud seeding is a common technique to
enhance precipitation. Evidence on its safety
is strong, but there are still doubts about its
effectiveness. Cloud seeding entails
spraying small particles (like silver iodide)
into the sky in order to trigger cloud
formation. The hope is that the water vapor
already in the air will condense onto the
Cloud seeding particles, forming clouds and eventually
falling as rain. It is, of course, impossible to
generate water through cloud seeding; cloud seeding only works to the extent that there is already water vapor
present in the air. The principal goal is just to force precipitation to fall in one area instead of another. Critics
generally contend that claimed successes occur in conditions which were going to rain anyway. It is used in a variety
of drought-prone countries, including the United States, the People's Republic of China, India, and Russia. In the
People's Republic of China there is a perceived dependency upon it in dry regions. In the United States, dry ice or
silver iodide may be injected into a cloud by aircraft, or from the ground. In mountainous areas of the United States
such as the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada,[8] it has been employed for several decades.
Weather control 578

Project Stormfury

Storm prevention
Project Stormfury was an attempt to weaken tropical
cyclones by flying aircraft into storms and seeding the
eyewall with silver iodide. The project was run by the
United States Government from 1962 to 1983. A
similar project using soot was run in 1958, with
inconclusive results.[9] Various methods have been
proposed to reduce the harmful effects of hurricanes.
Moshe Alamaro of the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology[10] proposed using barges with
upward-pointing jet engines to trigger smaller storms to
disrupt the progress of an incoming hurricane; critics
doubt the jets would be powerful enough to make any Hail cannons at an international congress on hail shooting held in
noticeable difference.[9] 1901

Alexandre Chorin of the University of California,


Berkeley proposed dropping large amounts of environmentally friendly oils on the sea surface to prevent droplet
formation.[11] Experiments by Kerry Emanuel[12] of MIT in 2002 suggested that hurricane-force winds would disrupt
the oil slick, making it ineffective.[13] Other scientists disputed the factual basis of the theoretical mechanism
assumed by this approach.[14] The Florida company Dyn-O-Mat proposes the use of a product it has developed,
called Dyn-O-Gel, to reduce the strength of hurricanes. The substance is a polymer in powder form which reportedly
has the ability to absorb 1,500 times its own weight in water. The theory is that the polymer is dropped into clouds to

remove their moisture and force the storm to use more energy to move the heavier water drops, thus helping to
dissipate the storm. When the gel reaches the ocean surface, it is reportedly dissolved. The company has tested the
Weather control 579

substance on a thunderstorm, but there has not been any scientific consensus established as to its effectiveness.[15]
Hail cannons are used by some farmers in an attempt to ward off hail, but there is no reliable scientific evidence to
confirm their effectiveness. Another new anti-hurricane technology[16] is a method for the reduction of tropical
cyclones’ destructive force - pumping sea water into and diffusing it in the wind at the bottom of such tropical
cyclone in its eyewall.

Hurricane modification
Various ideas for manipulating hurricanes have been suggested. One TV show[17] explored various ideas such as:
• Using lasers to discharge lightning in storms which are likely to become hurricanes
• Pouring liquid nitrogen onto the sea to deprive the hurricane of heat energy.
• Creating soot to absorb sunlight and change air temperature and hence convection currents in the outer wall.

Weather control and law

US and Canada agreement


In 1975, the US and Canada entered into an agreement under the auspices of the United Nations for the exchange of
information on weather modification activity.[18]

1977 UN Environmental Modification Convention


Weather control, particularly hostile weather warfare, was addressed by the "United Nations General Assembly
Resolution 31/72, TIAS 9614 Convention[19] on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of
Environmental Modification Techniques" was adopted. The Convention was: Signed in Geneva May 18, 1977;
Entered into force October 5, 1978; Ratification by U.S. President December 13, 1979; U.S. ratification deposited at
New York January 17, 1980.[20]

US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration


In the US, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration regulates weather control projects, under authority
of Public Law 205 of the 92nd Congress.

US Legislation
The Space Preservation Act was proposed "to preserve the cooperative, peaceful uses of space for the benefit of all
humankind by permanently prohibiting the basing of weapons in space by the United States, and to require the
President to take action to adopt and implement a world treaty banning space-based weapons."[21]
2005 U.S. Senate Bill 517 and U.S. House Bill 2995 U.S. Senate Bill 517[22] and U.S. House Bill 2995[23] were two
bills proposed in 2005 that would have expanded experimental weather modification, to establish a Weather
Modification Operations and Research Board, and implemented a national weather modification policy. Neither were
made into law. Former Texas State Senator John N. Leedom was the key lobbyist on behalf of the weather
modification bills.
2007 U.S. Senate Bill 1807 & U.S. House Bill 3445 Senate Bill 1807 and House Bill 3445, identical bills
introduced July 17, 2007, proposed to establish a Weather Mitigation Advisory and Research Board to fund weather
modification research [24] [25]
Weather control 580

Future aspirations
Climatologist Joe Chanik has simulated hurricane control based on selective heating and cooling (or prevention of
evaporation).[26] Futurist John Smart has discussed the potential for weather control via space-based solar power
networks. One proposal involves the gentle heating via microwave of portions of large hurricanes. Such chaotic
systems may be susceptible to "side steering" with a few degrees of increased temperature/pressure at critical points.
A sufficient network might keep the largest and most potentially damaging hurricanes from landfall, at the request of
host nations. Blizzards, monsoons, and other extreme weather are also potential candidates for space-based
amelioration. If large-scale weather control were to become feasible, potential implications may include:
• Unintended side effects, especially given the chaotic nature of weather development
• Damage to existing ecosystems
• Health risks to humans
• Equipment malfunction or accidents
• Non-democratic control or use as a weapon
• ELF hot spots causing slightly accelerated ionospheric depletion by solar wind [27]
For the 2008 Olympics, China had 30 airplanes, 4,000 rocket launchers, and 7,000 anti-aircraft guns to stop rain.
Each system would shoot various chemicals into any threatening clouds to shrink rain drops before they reach the
stadium.[28]

Conspiracy theories
Conspiracy theorists question the possibility of using weather
control as a weapon (e.g. via HAARP and/or chemtrails), At
a counterterrorism conference in 1997, United States
Secretary of Defense William Cohen referred to the writings
of futurist Alvin Toffler, specifically regarding concerns
about "environmental terrorism" and intentionally caused
natural disasters.[29]

References
[1] Homer, The Odyssey, book 10.
[2] Sir James Frazer, The Golden Bough, ch. 5 (abridged edition), "The A Project HAARP antenna
Magical Control of Rain"
[3] Christopher Smout, A History of the Scottish People 1560-1830, pp.
184-192
[4] Adam of Bremen and Ole Worm are quoted as maintaining this in
Grillot de Givry's Witchcraft, Magic and Alchemy (Frederick
Publications, 1954).
[5] Frazer, supra.
[6] Leigh, Karen. (http:/ / www. arabianbusiness. com/
abu-dhabi-backed-scientists-create-fake-rainstorms-in-11m-project-371038.
html), "Arabian Business", January 3, 2011. Retrieved 2011-01-8.
[7] (http:/ / www. dailymail. co. uk/ sciencetech/ article-1343470/
Have-scientists-discovered-create-downpours-desert. html), "Daily
Mail", January 3, 2011. Retrieved 2011-01-8.
[8] http:/ / www. energy. ca. gov/ 2007publications/ CEC-500-2007-008/
CEC-500-2007-008. PDF
[9] http:/ / environment. newscientist. com/ article/ dn7995. html - Alamaro Project Stormfury crew
proposal and energy critique
[10] Moshe Alamaro's brief bio (http:/ / alamaro. home. comcast. net/ Alamaro-bio. htm)
[11] http:/ / www. newscientist. com/ article. ns?id=dn7726 - Chorin proposal
Weather control 581

[12] Kerry Emanuel's Homepage (http:/ / wind. mit. edu/ ~emanuel/ home. html)
[13] Could humans tackle hurricanes? - earth - 14 September 2005 - New Scientist Environment (http:/ / environment. newscientist. com/ article/
dn7995. html)
[14] Oil on troubled waters may stop hurricanes - earth - 25 July 2005 - New Scientist (http:/ / www. newscientist. com/ article. ns?id=dn7726)
[15] Anti-hurricane invention worth pursuing. (http:/ / www. nashuatelegraph. com/ apps/ pbcs. dll/ article?AID=/ 20051022/ OPINION04/
110220166/ -1/ news) Murdock, Deroy. Scripps Howard News Service. 22 Oct 2005.
[16] http:/ / www. wipo. int/ pctdb/ en/ wo. jsp?IA=WO2006085830& DISPLAY=STATUS
[17] "How to stop a hurricane" (http:/ / www. cbc. ca/ doczone/ hurricane. html). CBC. . Retrieved 2009-05-06.
[18] Agreement Relating to the Exchange of Information on Weather Modification Activities (http:/ / untreaty. un. org/ unts/ 1_60000/ 27/ 20/
00052955. pdf)
[19] Environmental Modification Convention (http:/ / www. fas. org/ nuke/ control/ enmod/ text/ environ2. htm)
[20] "Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques" (http:/ / web. archive. org/
web/ 20070914081350/ http:/ / www. state. gov/ t/ ac/ trt/ 4783. htm). United States Department of State. Archived from the original (http:/ /
www. state. gov/ t/ ac/ trt/ 4783. htm) on 2007-09-14. . Retrieved 2007-09-28.
[21] http:/ / thomas. loc. gov/ cgi-bin/ query/ zc107:H. R. 2977. IH
[22] S. 517 [109th]: Weather Modification Research and Development Policy Authorization Act of 2005, proposed by [[U.S. Senator (http:/ /
www. govtrack. us/ congress/ bill. xpd?bill=s109-517)] Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas and then U.S. Representative (later Senator) Mark
Udall of Colorado (GovTrack.us)]
[23] H.R. 2995 [109th]: Weather Modification Research and Technology Transfer Authorization Act of 2005 (GovTrack.us) (http:/ / www.
govtrack. us/ congress/ bill. xpd?bill=h109-2995)
[24] http:/ / tlp. law. pitt. edu/ SP_DiLorenzo_Weather%20Modification. htm
[25] http:/ / www. govtrack. us/ congress/ bill. xpd?bill=s110-1807
[26] Hoffman, R, "Controlling Hurricanes," Scientific American, Oct 2004 (http:/ / www. sciam. com/ article.
cfm?articleID=000593AE-704B-1151-B57F83414B7F0000).
[27] Kevin J. Zahnle, "Our Planet's Leaky Atmosphere," Scientific American, May 2009 (http:/ / www. scientificamerican. com/ article.
cfm?id=how-planets-lose-their-atmospheres).
[28] Demick, Barbara, "China plans to halt rain for Olympics," Los Angeles Times, January 2008 (http:/ / www. latimes. com/ news/ nationworld/
world/ la-fg-rain31jan31,0,39372. story).
[29] COHEN ADDRESS 4/28 AT CONFERENCE ON TERRORISM Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and U.S. Strategy Sam Nunn
Policy Forum April 28, 1997 University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia (http:/ / www. fas. org/ news/ usa/ 1997/ 04/ bmd970429d. htm)

External links

General information
• Weather Modification Association (http://www.weathermodification.org/related_sites.htm) Perhaps the
largest commercial overhead organization for weather modification research and application.
• Golden Dome construction (http://Goldendome.org/construction) Hundreds of advanced practitioners of
Transcendental Meditation put their attention on favorable weather conditions during construction of the Golden
Dome during the winter of 1980.
• The Testimony of Dr. Tom DeFelice (http://commerce.senate.gov/pdf/defelice.pdf) (Past President, Weather
Modification Association) in support of Weather Modification Operations and Research Board
• 109th Congress S. 517: Weather Modification Research and Technology Transfer Authorization Act of 2005
(http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s109-517)
• Article (http://data.opi.state.mt.us/bills/2005/billhtml/HB0399.htm) Montana restricts spraying to a
window of months and requires materials and employee lists
• US Navy (http://wwwppd.nrl.navy.mil/whatsnew/haarp) Some work is done by The United States Navy using
ELF: Simulations of ELF radiation generated by heating the high-latitude D- region. (This work is supported by
the Office of Naval Research and, in part, by a grant of HPC time from the DoD High Performance Computing
Center at the Army Research Laboratory, Aberdeen Proving Ground)
• HARRP (http://wwwppd.nrl.navy.mil/whatsnew/haarp/haarpabsez.gif)
• " The Weather Modification Operations and Research Board (passed Oct.2005) - in corporate cooperation with
BAE Systems (HAARP apparatus & facility owner) and Raytheon Corporation (HAARP patent owner) (http://
commerce.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressReleases.Detail&PressRelease_Id=248556)
Weather control 582

• " NOAA’S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AWARDS $300 MILLION AWIPS CONTRACT TO
RAYTHEON (http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/releases2005/aug05/noaa05-098.html)"
• " Raytheon Aircraft Company (Owner of HAARP patents, and, NOAA-funded aerosol weather
modification/AESA radar weather weapons) (http://www.raytheonaircraft.com/government/multi_jets.
shtml#main)"
• " BAE Systems (program and apparatus-owner of the HAARP facility, Railgun technology, electromagnetic
armor, and, a sub-corporation partner with Raytheon via British Aerospace Corporation (http://www.na.
baesystems.com/releasesDetail.cfm?a=477)
• " General Dynamics Robotics (owned by Raytheon Corp) - military contractor/manufacturer of Unmanned
Autonomous Vehicles (UAV) aircraft designed for "all-weather," computer-controlled weapons defense progams
(http://www.gdrs.com/news/)
• " HAARP Completed! - news compilation (http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2006/05/06/18214461.php)
• " President Bush's National Response Plan (http://www.dhs.gov/xprepresp/committees/editorial_0566.shtm)"
• " Boeing, Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, and Raytheon to create B2B exchange for the aerospace and defense
industry, powered by Microsoft (http://www.lockheedmartin.com/wms/findPage.do?dsp=fec&ci=12498&
rsbci=0&fti=112&ti=0&sc=400)"
• Weathermodification.org (http://www.weathermodification.org)
• North American Interstate Weather Modification Council (http://www.naiwmc.org)
• Iceflares.com (http://www.iceflares.com)
• The Gateway Arch as a weather control device (http://www.failedsuccess.com/index.php?/weblog/more/
arch_weather_story)
• William Cohen Address of 4/28/1997 (http://www.fas.org/news/usa/1997/04/bmd970429d.htm) where he
mentioned the possibility of "eco-terrorism" including weather control.
• Scientific American Magazine (October 2004 Issue) Controlling Hurricanes (http://www.sciam.com/article.
cfm?chanID=sa006&articleID=000593AE-704B-1151-B57F83414B7F0000)
• Eastlund Scientific Enterprises (http://www.eastlundscience.com/WEATHER.html) The established
corporation of Bernard Eastlund, the inventor of the fusion torch, patents used for the HAARP, and the
weather-modifying "Thunderstorm Solar-Powered Satellite" system.
• Whitehouse.gov (http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2007/05/20070509-12.html)
The "National Security and Homeland Security Presidential Directive" of 2007, in which "The President shall
lead the activities of the Federal Government for ensuring constitutional government" (powers of legislative and
judiciary branches aside) during any sort of catastrophic emergency in the USA.
• Agreement between Canada and the United States of America relating to the exchange of information on weather
modification activities (http://www.lexum.umontreal.ca/ca_us/en/cts.1975.11.en.html), Cando-American
Treaties
• That's Impossible: Weather Warfare (http://www.history.com/shows.do?episodeId=464914&action=detail),
History Channel
Weather control 583

Patents
Original
• Process for weather control, H. M. Brandau, U.S. Patent 2756097 (http://www.google.com/
patents?vid=2756097)
• Weather control by artificial means, Heinz W. Kasemir, U.S. Patent 3284005 (http://www.google.com/
patents?vid=3284005)
• Cloud formation and subsequent moisture precipitation, U.S. Patent 3409220 (http://www.google.com/
patents?vid=3409220)
• System and method for irradiation of planet surface areas, Aurthur G. Buckingham, U.S. Patent 3564253 (http://
www.google.com/patents?vid=3564253)
• Weather modification method, Knollenberg, U.S. Patent 3613992 (http://www.google.com/
patents?vid=3613992)
• Combustible compositions for generating aerosols, particularly suitable for cloud modification and weather
control and aerosolization process, Consiglio Nazionale delle Richerche, U.S. Patent 3630950 (http://www.
google.com/patents?vid=3630950)
• Method and apparatus for altering a region in the Earth's atmosphere, ionosphere, and/or magnetosphere, J.
Eastlund, U.S. Patent 4686605 (http://www.google.com/patents?vid=4686605)
• Method and composition for precipitation of atmospheric water, Slavko Mentus, U.S. Patent 5360162 (http://
www.google.com/patents?vid=5360162)
• Use of artificial satellites in earth orbits adaptively to modify the effect that solar radiation would otherwise have
on earth's weather, Franklin Y. K. Chen, U.S. Patent 5762298 (http://www.google.com/patents?vid=5762298)
• Weather modification by artificial satellites, Franklin Y. K. Chen, U.S. Patent 5984239 (http://www.google.
com/patents?vid=5984239)
• Method of and a device for the reduction of tropical cyclones destructive force, Jozef Solc, U.S. Patent 7,798,419
(http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&p=1&u=/netahtml/PTO/
search-bool.html&r=1&f=G&l=50&co1=AND&d=PTXT&s1=Solc&s2=hurricane&OS=Solc+AND+
hurricane&RS=Solc+AND+hurricane)
Reissue
• Combustible compositions for generating aerosols, particularly suitable for cloud modification and weather
control and aerosolization process, Consiglio Nazionale delle Richerche, U.S. Patent RE29142 (http://www.
google.com/patents?vid=RE29142)
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change 584

Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change


Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change: A Scientific Symposium on
Stabilisation of Greenhouse Gases was a 2005 international
conference that examined the link between atmospheric greenhouse
gas concentration, and the 2 °C (3.6 °F) ceiling on global warming
thought necessary to avoid the most serious effects of global warming. Previously this had generally been accepted
as being 550 ppm.

The conference took place under the United Kingdom's presidency of the G8, with the participation of around 200
'internationally renowned' scientists from 30 countries. It was chaired by Dennis Tirpak and hosted by the Hadley
Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Exeter, from 1 February to 3 February.[1]

Objectives
The conference was called to bring together the latest
research into what would be necessary to achieve the
objective of the 1992 United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change:
to achieve, in accordance with the relevant
provisions of the Convention, stabilization of
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere
at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate
system.

It was also intended to encourage further research in the


area. An initial assessment of the subject had been Global carbon dioxide emissions through year 2004
included in the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report;
however, the topic had received relatively little
international discussion.[2]
Specifically, the conference explored three issues:
• For different levels of climate change what are the
key impacts, for different regions and sectors and for
the world as a whole?
• What would such levels of climate change imply in
terms of greenhouse gas stabilisation concentrations
and emission pathways required to achieve such
levels?
• What options are there for achieving stabilisation of
greenhouse gases at different stabilisation
concentrations in the atmosphere, taking into Global average surface temperature 1880 to 2009, with a zero
variance point set at the average temperature between 1961 and
account costs and uncertainties?
1990.

Conclusions
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change 585

Among the conclusions reached, the most significant was a new assessment of the link between the concentration of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the increase in global temperature levels. Some researchers have argued that
the most serious consequences of global warming might be avoided if global average temperatures rose by no more
than 2 °C (3.6 °F) above pre-industrial levels (1.4 °C above present levels). It had generally been assumed that this
would occur if greenhouse gas concentrations rose above 550 ppm carbon dioxide equivalent by volume. This
concentration was, for example, informing government in certain countries, including the European Union.[3] Other
research suggests, however, that 2 °C warming is unlikely to cause major economic problems.[4]
The conference concluded that, at the level of 550 ppm, it was likely that 2 °C would be exceeded, according to the
projections of more recent climate models. Stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm would only result
in a 50% likelihood of limiting global warming to 2 °C, and that it would be necessary to achieve stabilisation below
400 ppm to give a relatively high certainty of not exceeding 2 °C.[5]
The conference also claimed that, if action to reduce emissions is delayed by 20 years, rates of emission reduction
may need to be 3 to 7 times greater to meet the same temperature target.[5]

Reaction
As a result of changing opinion on the 'safe' atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, to which this conference
contributed, the UK Government changed the target in the Climate Change Act from 60% to 80% by 2050.[6]

References
[1] "Climate Stabilisation Conference - Exeter 2005" (http:/ / www. gnn. gov. uk/ content/ detail. asp?NewsAreaID=2& ReleaseID=134475).
Government News Network. 4 November 2004. . Retrieved 15 March 2007.
[2] "Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change - Background" (http:/ / www. stabilisation2005. com/ background. html). Met Office. 2005. .
Retrieved 16 March 2007.
[3] "Community Strategy on Climate Change - Council Conclusions" (http:/ / ue. eu. int/ ueDocs/ cms_Data/ docs/ pressData/ en/ envir/
011a0006. htm). Council of the European Union. 22 June 1996?. . Retrieved 15 March 2007.
[4] [[Richard Tol|R.S.J. Tol (http:/ / www. sciencedirect. com/ science?_ob=ArticleURL& _udi=B6V2W-4J32HDR-4& _user=1005040&
_coverDate=01/ 31/ 2007& _alid=675049097& _rdoc=2& _fmt=full& _orig=search& _cdi=5713& _sort=d& _docanchor=& view=c&
_ct=10& _acct=C000047720& _version=1& _urlVersion=0& _userid=1005040& md5=e1d1dfbfffd92e1e7374ae282df2eebf)] (2007), Energy
Policy, 35 (1), 424-434]
[5] "International Symposium on the Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations - Report of the International Scientific Steering Committee"
(http:/ / www. stabilisation2005. com/ outcomes. html). Met Office. 10 May 2005. . Retrieved 15 March 2007.
[6] "UK leads world with commitment to cut emissions by 80% by 2050" (http:/ / nds. coi. gov. uk/ environment/ fullDetail.
asp?ReleaseID=381477& NewsAreaID=2& NavigatedFromDepartment=False). Department of Energy and Climate Change. 16 October 2008.
. Retrieved 28 October 2008.

Further reading
• Related book: Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Editors: Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Wolfgang Cramer,
Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Tom Wigley, and Gary Yohe, Cambridge University Press, February 2006, ISBN
9780521864718 DOI: 10.2277/0521864712.
• PDF version (http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/research/dangerous-cc/pdf/
avoid-dangercc.pdf)
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change 586

External links
• Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change - official conference website (http://www.stabilisation2005.com/)
• Tyndall Centre - A strategic assessment of scientific and behavioural perspectives on 'dangerous' climate change
(http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/theme3/project_overviews/t3_32.shtml)
• RSPB - Keeping below 2 degrees: Avoiding dangerous climate change (http://www.rspb.org.uk/Images/
below2degrees_tcm9-132866.pdf)
• WWF-UK - 2°C Is Too Much! Evidence and Implications of Dangerous Climate Change in the Arctic (http://
www.wwf.org.uk/news/n_0000001451.asp)
• Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency - Meeting the European Union 2°C climate target: global and
regional emission implications (http://www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2005/
Meeting_the_EU_2_degrees_C_climate_target__global_and_regional_emission_implications.html)
• Dr. James Hansen, Climate Scientist's web page (http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/)
News
• April 19, 2007, Reuters: World needs to axe greenhouse gases by 80% by 2050 (http://in.today.reuters.com/
news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&
storyID=2007-04-19T182132Z_01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_India-294813-1.xml&archived=False)
• February 1, 2006, Euractive: UK chief scientific adviser: Keeping CO2 concentration below 450ppm is
'unfeasible' (http://www.euractiv.com/en/sustainability/eu-climate-change-target-unfeasible/article-152154)
• January 30, 2006, BBC: Stark warning over climate change (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4660938.
stm)
• January 30, 2006, BBC: Climate report: the main points (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4661830.stm)
• January 29, 2006, Washington Post: Debate on Climate Shifts to Issue of Irreparable Change (http://www.
washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/28/AR2006012801021.html)
• January 1, 2006, Times online: World has only 20 years to stop climate disaster (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/
tol/news/uk/article723327.ece)
• February 4, 2005, Environment News Service: Catastrophic Climate Change Risk Accelerating, Scientists Warn
(http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/feb2005/2005-02-04-05.asp)
• February 3, 2005, Guardian Unlimited: Climate conference hears degree of danger (http://www.guardian.co.
uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1404453,00.html)
Index of climate change articles 587

Index of climate change articles


This is a list of climate change topics.
This list is incomplete.

0-9
100,000-year problem - 1500-Year climate cycle - 4 Degrees and Beyond International Climate Conference

A
Abrupt climate change - The Age of Stupid - Albedo - An Inconvenient Truth - An Inconvenient Book - Antarctica
cooling controversy - Antarctic Cold Reversal - Antarctic oscillation - Arctic Climate Impact Assessment - Arctic
geoengineering - Arctic shrinkage - Arctic oscillation - Antarctica cooling controversy - Atlantic oscillation - Arctic
Climate Impact Assessment - Arctic methane release - Arctic shrinkage - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation -
Atmospheric circulation - Atmospheric sciences - Atmospheric window - Attribution of recent climate change -
Aviation and climate change - Aviation and the environment - Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change

B
Bali Communiqué - Bali roadmap - Biochar - Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage - Bio-geoengineering -
Black carbon - Blytt-Sernander - Broad Spectrum Revolution - Business action on climate change

C
Callendar effect - Cap and Share - Carbon capture and storage - Carbon cycle - Carbon negative - Carbon neutral -
Carbon project - Carbon sequestration - Carbon offset - Carbon sink - Carbon tax - Catastrophic climate change -
Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change - Clathrate gun hypothesis - Clean coal technology -
Clean Energy Trends - Climate - Climate change - Climate change acronyms - Climate change act - Climate change
and agriculture - Climate change denial - Climate change in Japan - Climate change in Maldives - Climate change in
popular culture - Climate change mitigation - Climate change mitigation scenarios - Climate commitment - Climate
crunch - Climate cycle - Climate ethics - Climate governance- Climate Investment Funds - Climate model - Climate
refugee - Climate risk management - Climate sensitivity - Climate surprise - Climate variability - Climatic Research
Unit email controversy - Cloud feedback - Cloud reflectivity enhancement - Coal phase out - Cool roof - Cool
tropics paradox - Coral bleaching

D
Dendroclimatology - The Day After Tomorrow - Divergence problem

E
Eco-efficiency - Early anthropocene - Earth's atmosphere - Earth's energy budget - EarthLab - Earth Hour -
Earthshine - East Antarctic Ice Sheet - Ecotax - Ecological Forecasting - Effects of climate change on marine
mammals - Effect of climate change on plant biodiversity - Effects of global warming - Effects of global warming on
Australia - Effects of global warming on India - Efficient energy use - El Niño (ENSO) - Emission Reduction Unit -
Emission inventory - Emission standards - Emissions trading - Energie-Cités - Energy Autonomy - Energy
conservation - Energy forestry - Enteric fermentation - Environmental crime - Environmental impact of aviation -
Environmental skepticism - European Climate Forum
Index of climate change articles 588

F
Fossil fuel - Fossil fuel phase out - Fossil fuel power plant - Freon - food security

G
G8+5 - Geoengineering - GFDL CM2.X - Global Change Master Directory - Global climate model - Global cooling
- Global climate model (General Circulation Model) - Global dimming - Global warming - Global warming
controversy - Global warming period - Global warming potential - Greenhouse and Icehouse Earth - Greenhouse
debt - Greenhouse effect - Greenhouse gas - Greenhouse gas accounting - Greenhouse gas inventory - Gulf Stream

H
History of climate change science - Holocene climatic optimum - Heiligendamm Process - Hell and High Water
(book) - Hockey stick controversy - Holocene - Holocene Climatic Optimum - Human impact of climate change -
Hydrological geoengineering

I
Ice age - Ice core - Ice sheet dynamics - Individual and political action on climate change - Insolation - Instrumental
temperature record - Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - International
Conference on Climate Change - IPCC list of greenhouse gases

K
Keeling Curve - Kyoto Protocol

L
List of geoengineering topics - List of proposed geoengineering projects - List of scientists opposing the mainstream
scientific assessment of global warming - Little Ice Age - Long-term effects of global warming - Low-carbon
emission -

M
Magnetosphere - Maunder Minimum - Mauna Loa - Medieval Warm Period - Meridional overturning circulation -
Meteorology - Methane - Milankovitch cycles
Index of climate change articles 589

N
Nitrous oxide (N2O) - North Atlantic Deep Water - North Atlantic oscillation - Northwest Passage

O
Ocean acidification - Ocean anoxia - Older Dryas - Oldest Dryas - Overpopulation - Ozone depletion

P
Pacific decadal oscillation - Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum - Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison
Project - Paleothermometer - Parameterization - Planetary engineering - Peak oil - Phenology - Polar amplification -
Proxy

Q
Quaternary glaciation - Quasi-biennial oscillation

R
Radiative forcing - Regional effects of global warming - Renewable energy - Renewable energy commercialization -
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 - Runaway climate change

S
Sahara pump theory - Satellite temperature measurements - Scientific opinion on climate change - Scientific
skepticism - Sea level rise - Slash and burn - Snowball Earth - Solar Radiation Management - Solar shade - Solar
variation - Space sunshade - Stratospheric sulfur aerosols - Stratospheric sulfur aerosols (geoengineering) - Sunspot

T
Table of Historic and Prehistoric Climate Indicators - Temperature record of the past 1000 years - Temperature
record since 1880 - Thermohaline circulation - Timeline of glaciation - TEX-86 - Thermocline - The Deniers - The
Great Global Warming Swindle - The Republican War on Science - Timeline of environmental history - Tipping
point (climatology)

U
Urban heat island - UN climate change conference 2009

W
Waste heat - Water World - West Antarctic Ice Sheet - World climate research programme - World Climate Report

External links
• IPCC [1] - glossary

References
[1] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 518. htm
Article Sources and Contributors 590

Article Sources and Contributors


Global warming  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=427142993  Contributors: -=-=DARK=-=-, -Majestic-, 00666, 0XQ, 172, 17Drew, 192.146.101.xxx, 1wheel,
200.191.188.xxx, 213.253.39.xxx, 2over0, 36624844, 4-a, 62.158.193.xxx, 62.202.117.xxx, 64.130.70.xxx, 65.96.132.xxx, 6strings, A bit iffy, A purple wikiuser, A8UDI, ABCD,
ACupOfCoffee, ADalporto, Aaron Bowen, Aaron Brenneman, Aaron Schulz, AaronSw, AaronY, Abah21, AbbaIkea2010, Abd, Abhic95, Abog, Abscissa, Abstation, Abu Triale, Academic
Challenger, Acirema, Adambiswanger1, Adashiel, Adi, Admiralchase, Adraeus, Adriaan, Adrian, Aenar, AeonΩ, Aervanath, AeternusPulvia, Aetheling1125, Africangenesis, Agathman, Agcala,
AgentSmith15, Agentosx, AgnosticPreachersKid, Agony690, Agricmarketing, Ahoerstemeier, Ajaxkroon, Ajdallas44, Akamad, Akasaka, Akhilleus, AkhmedSG, Akill, Aking, Alai, Alain10,
Alan Liefting, Alan.ca, AlanPater, Alba, AlbertTang, Aldo L, Ale jrb, AleHitch, Alex at kms, Alex.g, Alex.rosenheim, Alex25, AlexD, Alexandraln, AlexiusHoratius, Alexllew, Alexvelto, Alfio,
Algebra, Algore, Algri, Alhutch, Ali'i, Alias Flood, Alientraveller, Alkivar, Alksub, Almafeta, Almcaeobtac, Alphachimp, Alsandro, Altermike, Altruistic Egotist, Aluminum Foil, Amanuse,
Amatheny, Amatulic, Amazeroth, Amberrock, Amcbride, Americanprogress, AmiDaniel, Amitch, Amos Han, Amsterdan, AnAbsolutelyOriginalUsername42, Anarchangel, Anarchopedia,
Anastrophe, Andre Engels, Andreisaioc, Andresswift, Andrew 1017, Andrew Delong, Andrew Nutter, Andrewjlockley, Andrewlp1991, Andrewpmk, Android79, AndrooUK, Andy M. Wang,
Andy Marchbanks, Angela, Angr, Anit.pimple, Anlace, AnneDELS, AnnuitSophia, Anonymous Dissident, Anonymous editor, Anonymousboy04, Anrevk, Antandrus, Anthere, Anthony,
Anthony Appleyard, Anthony R. Hansen, Antony2, Anubis1975, Anyone7, Anythingyouwant, Aoratos, Apeman2001, Appel Guy, Arbitrary username, Archaeopteryx, Archelon, ArcticFrog,
Ardeet, Argyrios Saccopoulos, Arjuna909, Arker, Arknascar44, Arm elf, Arminius, Arnold19, Arnoldspurga, Arrogant Radial, Arsonal, Art LaPella, Arthur Rubin, ArthurWeasley, Artichoker,
Artwerkgal, Arved Deecke, Arzel, As the glorious weep, Asa raser, Ash, Ashenai, Ashlux, Ashmoo, Asm79, AssegaiAli, Asteron, AstroHurricane001, Astrobayes, Atariman27, Atbackus, Atlant,
Atlastawake, AtmosNews, Atmoz, Atshields0, Aude, Aunt Entropy, Auntof6, Aussie matu, Autonova, Autopilot, Aveekbh, Avi Ravner, AvicAWB, Avicennasis, Avman89, Awickert, AxG,
AxelBoldt, Axi0m, Axlq, AySz88, Ayre bisquit, Ayudante, Ayush Gupta, Az1568, AzaToth, Azcat90, Azianknowitall, Azugaldia, B Carey, BC Builder, BMcCJ, Baba, Baby Eisenstein,
Babylicious2, Backin72, Bacteriophage, Balldon, Banes, Bangabalunga, BanyanTree, Baon, Barbara Shack, Barry Kent, Bart133, Basketdan, Bazzbee, Bbatsell, Bbruns19, Bdelisle, Bdj, Bduke,
Beagel, Beao, Bears16, BeefRendang, Beland, Belligero, Bemcaskill, Ben5ive, BenB4, Benajnim, Bender235, Bendover, Bendzh, Benhocking, Benjamin Fulford, Benjiwolf, Bennybp, Bentley4,
Benzocane, BernhardMeyer, Betacommand, Betsythedevine, Bevo, BeŻet, Bhadani, BhaiSaab, Bibliomaniac15, Bigmantonyd, Bigtimepeace, Bikeable, Bilboyce, Bilby, Bill the Duck,
Birdbrainscan, Birdhurst, Bitbit, Bjdehut, Bjp716, Bjquinn, Bkessler23, Black Eagle, BlackRival, Blah42, Blanchette, Blastmaster1, Blood sliver, Blue Tie, Blue-Haired Lawyer, BlueGoose,
Blueboar, Bluesquareapple, Bmelville12, Bob101, Bobandwendy, Bobblewik, Bobet, Boby1100, Boehner, Bogden400, Bogey97, Bohemian indian, Bomac, Bombboy2000, Bonefishj0e, Bongle,
Bonked116, Bony devil, Booyah3, Borghuman, Borgx, Borisblue, Bornhj, Boromir123, Bosmon, Bosniak, Boud, Bouncingmolar, Boyon12, BozMo, Br77rino, Braking wynd, Bramblez,
Brandmeister, Brandmeister (old), Brandonromero, Branka France, Brat32, Breaking the Silence, Brendan Moody, Brendankm, Brettlandau, Brian The Mute, Brian0918, Brighterorange, Britcom,
Brittainia, Bro1990, BrokenSegue, Brothergrimm, Bruce360, Bruceanthro, Brusegadi, BryanG, Bryansworld, Bsadowski1, Bstein80, Bubba73, Buckeyes07, Bueller 007, Buellering, Buffalob07,
Buickid, Butchnovak, Bzehr, C-randles, CALR, CBDunkerson, CIreland, CMacMillan, CO2 doubter, CQJ, Cabdude, Cactus.man, Cadae, Caldwell malt, CalebNoble, Calibas, Calixte, Callmebc,
Calvinpersaud, CambridgeBayWeather, Cameron Nedland, CampusParty, Can't sleep, clown will eat me, CanadianCaesar, Cancrine, Canderra, Canderson7, Cantiorix, CapitalElll, Captadv,
Captain-tucker, Captainbeefart, Captinlemon, Carbonconsultant, Carcharoth, CarlKenner, Carlosguitar, Carninia, Case2020, CaseBlack, Cassini83, Cathy alonge, Causa sui, CecilWard, Cedrium,
Centrx, Ceo, Ceres777, Cesiumfrog, Cessator, Chaos50006, ChaosR, ChaplineRVine, Charles Edward, CharlotteWebb, Chase me ladies, I'm the Cavalry, Chatfecter, Chavoguero, Chealer,
Chendy, Chessmaster3, Childhoodsend, ChildofMidnight, Chinese3126, Chinfo, Chiropractor, Chivista, Chonginese, Chooserr, Chris 42, Chris cufc, Chrishy man, ChristTrekker, Christian75,
Christopher Mann McKay, Christopher Parham, Christv, Chriswaterguy, Chsguy06, Chuck Marean, Chun-hian, Chwyatt, ChyranandChloe, Cielomobile, Ckatz, Cla68, Clairecohen, Clashwho,
Clayc3466, Clayoquot, CleanHarry29201, Cleared as filed, Climb It Change, Clod2105, Closedmouth, CloudNine, Cmatcmextra, Coastwise, Coemgenus, CohenTheBavarian, CommonJoe,
CommonsDelinker, CompuHacker, Computerjoe, Cone of Silence, Conga321, Conn104, ConservativeChristian, Conversion script, Cool Hand Luke, Coolbill14, Coopercmu, CopperMurdoch,
Coppro, Coredesat, Cortonin, CorvetteZ51, Cotcot2, Count Iblis, Cowicide, Cquan, Craticula, Crazycanuck, Crazycomputers, Crazymongoose, Crazytim77, CreepyCrawly, Crk, CrnaGora,
Crohnie, Crotalus horridus, Cruizswimclub, Crust, Cryptic C62, Crystallina, Csn pilot, Cuberoot31, Culliganator, Cultural Freedom, Curps, CurtisSwain, Cut the Mustard, Cybercobra,
Cybergothiche, Cyde, Cymro1, CynicalMe, Cyrusc, Czachorski, D6, DGaw, DHeyward, DJ Clayworth, DLH, DTMGO, DVD R W, DWPittelli, Daa89563, Daanschr, Dabomb87, Daguuy,
Dalej78, Daleyj, Damian Yerrick, Dan Li, Dan Pangburn, Dan aka jack, Dan100, Dane 1981, Danfune, Daniel, Daniel Collins, Daniel J. Leivick, Daniel.Cardenas, Daniel.park.7, Daniel1212,
Daniel3, Daniel5127, DanielCD, DanniDK, Dansphere, Daofeishi, Daphne A, Darkkkkkkk, Darkohead, Darth Ag.Ent, Darth blight, Darthgriz98, Dave souza, Dave6, Daverocks, Davewild,
David Foster, David Levy, David Newton, David matthews, DavidA, DavidLevinson, DavidRader, DavidWBrooks, Dawn Bard, Dbarefoot, Dcljr, Dcoetzee, Dday14044, Ddball, Deamon138,
Dean1970, Deathbacon, Deathphoenix, Decoratrix, Deekatherine, Deeptrivia, Deglr6328, Dejvid, Dekisugi, Delirium, Delldot, Delta x, Demiurge1000, DemonChild999, Denelson83, Denorris,
Depictionimage, DerHexer, Derex, Derik hitchman, Derktar, Destrominator, Deus Ex, Deuxhero, Devil Ray, Deville, Devourer09, Dexoman2000, Dgies, Dhaluza, Dharmabum420, Dhebold,
Diagonalfish, Dicksonlaprade, Diddims, Dieguez, DietLimeCola, Digitalme, Dikstr, Dikteren, Dimanovski, Dinosaurdarrell, Diophantus, DirkvdM, DiscGolf, Discospinster, DiscoverWorlds,
Dislocatedthumb, Dittaeva, Djbb1993, Doffe, Dogposter, Dogru144, Don Mattox, Don't lose that number, DonSiano, Donarreiskoffer, Dooky, Doopdoop, Dothefandango, Doviel, Dp462090,
Dpbsmith, Dr. Dongle, Dr. JJ, Draeco, Dragonchat20, DragonflySixtyseven, Dragons flight, Drat, Drawat123, DreamsReign, Dreamyshade, Drewk, Drfreid, Driftwoodzebulin, Drig06, Drmies,
DroEsperanto, Drstuey, Drum4him168, Drumsticktutu, Drushing, Dsrguru, Dtaylor1984, DuKu, Dubc0724, DuendeThumb, Dullfig, Duncharris, Dupz, Dust Filter, Dvbennett, Dysmorodrepanis,
E j powers, EDG161, ERW1980, ESkog, EWS23, Earlye, Earth, EarthPerson, Earthgecko, EchoRevamped, Ecnalyr, EcoForecast, Economicprof, EconomistBR, Ecoresearch, Ed Addis, Ed Poor,
Edcolins, Edd pearson, EdgarMonk, Edwy, Eebster the Great, Eequor, Egern, Eisenmond, Eisnel, Ejgejgejg, El C, Elb2000, Eleo, Eli Rabett, Eliz81, Ellsass, Eloquence, Elvinking, Elwinator,
Emilfaro, Emilylovescurtains, Encephalon, Energy is finite sp, Energyadonis, Enescot, Eniteris, Enjoipandaa, Entar, Enuja, Epbr123, Epolk, Equazcion, Erdons, Ergzay, Eric Andersen, Eric
outdoors, Eric119, EricN, Ernie Smith, EsperantoStand, Esthameian, Eudemis, Evan Robidoux, Evan3850, Evercat, EverybodyLovesPie, Everyking, Evil Monkey, Evil saltine, Evildictaitor,
Evolauxia, Evolutionyu, Exander, Excirial, Exir Kamalabadi, Extra999, EyeSerene, F.F.McGurk, FCYTravis, FF2010, Fabartus, Fabricationary, Face, Falcorian, Fang Aili, Fangel96, Fanghong,
FannoMeglioJazz, Fatcat0070, Fathomer76, Favonian, FayssalF, Faytz, Featured, Fede.Campana, Feezo, Felipe78felipe, Fgleb, Fic-in, Fieldmarshal Miyagi, FifeOpp08, Fill the bowl, Fillinchen,
Firetorp, Flatterworld, Flavor Saver, Flcelloguy, Flipmatthew, Flix2000, Flo98, Floaterfluss, Flockmeal, Floridianed, Fly Me Courageous, Flyguy649, Fmmarianicolon, Fourthgeek, Fraxen,
Freakofnurture, Fred Bauder, Fredrik, Fredrikjh, FreeKresge, Frendinius, Frenstad, FreplySpang, Freunde, Friday, Frip3000, Frogygirl, Frosty0814snowman, Frymaster, Fubar Obfusco, Fulmer7,
Fultonwilcox, Fumblebruschi, Func, Funinwh1, Funky Monkey, Fuzheado, Fuzzle, Fvw, Fyunck(click), G-Man, GD, GESICC, GHe, GManNickG, GP Kid, Gabbe, Gabriel Kielland, Gaell,
Galahaad, Galoubet, Galwhaa, Gamersedge, Gandhix, Garafolo, Gardner monk, Gaurav genius88, Gbob88, Gdo01, Gefreiter, Gemtpm, Gene s, Geneb1955, GeneralGreene, Geniusinfranceman,
Geoff Kohne, Geologyguy, Geopilotwiki, George Burgess, George100, George87, Georgechristodoulou, Geosysindia, Geowizard, Gerardw, Gesje83, Ghaly, Ghjfdhgdju, Ghtx, Giannandrea,
Gibbs Free Energy, Giftlite, Gillea2k8, Gimboid13, Gimmetrow, GinaDana, Giorgiogp2, GirasoleDE, Gjgarrett, Gjl, Gjone936, Gkklein, Gladeator204, Glen, Glenn, Globalization,
Globalwarmingisafarse, Gnangarra, Gniniv, Gnomatic, GoRight, Gobonobo, Goldcoastlawyer, GoneAwayNowAndRetired, Gonzonoir, Goodone121, Googie man, Gorank4, Gotcheeze5793,
Govontario, Gozar, Gpvos, Gr 50 10, Grace Xu, GraemeL, Graft, Graham87, Gralo, Grawp, Great Scrivener, GreatWhiteNortherner, Green Cardamom, Green caterpillar, Green.energy,
Greensburger, GregAsche, GregBenson, GregManninLB, Gregorydavid, Gregz08, Grimerking, Grinchsmate, Grinning Idiot, Ground Zero, Grundle2600, Grunt, Guaka, Guettarda,
GuildNavigator84, Gulf Stream Crisis, Gurch, Gurchzilla, Gurubrahma, Gwernol, H, H.b., H0ck3yplaya, H2g2bob, Haavardjenssen, Hadal, Hagerman, Haham hanuka, Hailtomaximus, Hakuin,
Hal peridol, Halo4life, Handface, Handy2810, Hankwang, Hannes Hirzel, Hans Erren, Hans3778, Harakashi, Hard Raspy Sci, Hard Sin, Hardcore legend, Harej, Harel, Harry Duke, Harryboyles,
Harrymph, Harthacnut, Haukurth, Hazmo1, Headphonos, Hello32020, Hemanshu, Henrik, HenryLi, Henrygb, Hermoine Gingold, Heron, HerrHomster, Herronj, Hfcom, Hi237, Hidaspal,
Hike395, HillChris1234, Hipocrite, Hirsch.im.wald, HistorianofScience, Hmains, Hnchan01, Hoboday, Hogofwar, Homer slips., HonoreDB, HonourableSchoolboy, HooperBandP, Howcheng,
Hu, Hu Xiang, Hu12, Hubschrauber729, HughGRex, Hugstrees, Huon, Husond, Hut 8.5, Hyad, HybridBoy, Hydrargyrum, Hyphoria, Hypnotist (usurped), I already forgot, I love SUV's,
Iamthebob, Iamunknown, Ian Pitchford, IanOfNorwich, Ianbamberger1, Ianparrague, Iapetus, Ibanez444, Icanhasnawlidge, Icantwait, Ice teeth, Iceage77, Iceberg007, Icechilled, Icecube505,
Id447, Ignorance is strength, Ikerus, Imfromthepast, Immunize, ImperfectlyInformed, Importion, Imthedragn, In case you're wondering, Incorrect, Indigokk, Ineffable3000, Inflamable dog,
Infonation101, Infrangible, Inner Earth, Inter, Interpreter, Introman, Invincible Ninja, InvisibleK, Iorek85, IrateManBear, Irishguy, IronGargoyle, Isaacsurh, Ishchayill, Isis07, Isonomia, Istranix,
Itsmine, Ivarercool, Ixfd64, Izno, J Di, J. Johnson, J. Langton, J.delanoy, JAMESMAYS, JHunterJ, JPINFV, JQLibet, JRR Trollkien, JVersteeg, JabberWok, Jack Merridew, JackMcGuire,
JackSaprrow, Jackbarrile, Jackehammond, Jackharwood, Jackknife55555, Jacoplane, Jahiegel, Jaimaster, Jak123, Jaked122, Jakob Russian, Jakoby, Jakro64, Jaksap, JamesMLane, Jamesbundu,
Jamesino, Jamib0y, Jamieplucinski, Jaraalbe, Jaranda, Jaredbelch, Jason L. Gohlke, Jason Patton, Jason Potter, Jatkins, Jausetgoen, Javascap, Jaxl, Jayanta Sen, Jaymax, Jaymes2, Jbergquist,
Jbird669, Jc-S0CO, Jcairns78, Jcc1, Jdcaust, Jebur, Jedibob5, Jeff dowter, Jeff9979, JeffBobFrank, JeffBurdges, Jefffire, Jeffrey O. Gustafson, Jeltz, JenLouise, Jennavecia, Jepp, Jeremy Young,
JeremyA, JesseGarrett, JesseW, JessicaJames777, Jestering, JettaMann, Jgcorn, Jgoodwin27, Jh51681, JhBleach98, Jhalpern, Jiddisch, JimCubb, Jimbob10045, Jimmytod, JinJian, Jklin,
Jlancaster, Jmko22, Jmnbatista, Jmv2009, Jnc, Jni, JoanneB, Joao, Joao Xavier, JockRusky, JoeBlogsDord, JoeLoro, Joecool94, Joer80, Johann Wolfgang, Johantheghost, Johmal, John, John Hill,
John Hyams, John Pont-Jovi, John Quiggin, John Stauber, JohnCPope, JohnDziak, Johnfos, Johnmasn, Johnmichael123, Johnpseudo, Joke137, Joker2935, Jomihaka, Jon Furston, JonGwynne,
JonMoseley, Jonabbey, Jonathan Headland, Jonathan.s.kt, Jonathanjonathan, Jonathunder, Joneseypoo, Jonjermey, Jonrgrover2, Joseph Solis in Australia, Josephprymak, Josh Parris, Josh4987,
Joshbuddy, Joshisthebest, JoshuaZ, Josiah Rowe, Jossi, Journalist, Joyous!, Jpelcis, Jpr2000, Jprowls, Jprw, Jreedy21, Jrockley, Jrsnbarn, Jrtayloriv, Jsarvey, Jsquared411, Jtedor, Jtk6204,
Jtkiefer, Judgesurreal777, Julesd, Juliancolton, Julzes, Junhao.chong, Just James, Jv9mmm, Jwagnon, Jwbaumann, Jwissick, Jwray, K, K00ld00d1107, K10wnsta, KVDP, Kaaveh Ahangar,
Kaisershatner, Kaitlynleee, Kaldari, KampferXeon, Karbinski, Karlawilloughby, Kartano, Karuma, Kashi, Kate460, KateH, Katoa, Kauffner, Kazvorpal, Kbdank71, Kbh3rd, Kborer, Kbrian,
Kc4601, Kcordina, Keaneman93, Keelback, Keenan Pepper, Keifer Thompson, Keilana, Kelisi, Kelvinsays, Kengo1040, Kensil811, Keofori, Kepin, Kernals of korn, Kerrow, Kesac, Kevin,
Kevin stanchfield, Kevinp2, Kf4bdy, Kgf0, Kghose, Kgrr, Kgs, Kill4joy, KillerChihuahua, Kim Bruning, KimDabelsteinPetersen, KimvdLinde, Kingboyk, Kingnothing8211, Kipala,
Kismatraval, Kittychem, Klickitat, Kmg90, Kmsiever, Kn4lf, KnowledgeOfSelf, Knowsetfree, KnoxvilleMoose, Koavf, Konstable, Korean alpha for knowledge, Kosebamse, Koskoskoskos,
Kozuch, Kragen, KrakatoaKatie, Krappe, Kratanuva66, Kukini, Kungfuadam, KurtLC, Kuru, Kurykh, Kusyadi, Kuzaar, Kvuo, Kwisnek1122, Kyaa the Catlord, Kyle sb, KyleRGiggs, Kylejp93,
LC, La goutte de pluie, LaggedOnUser, Lakinekaki, Lampostwalker, Lance Yeltsin, Laser Razor, LaszloWalrus, Laurips, Lawrencekhoo, Lazulilasher, LazyBoi633, Lazybeef, Leafittome, Lebite,
Lectonar, Lee, Lee Wells, Leevanjackson, Leighharris92, Leithp, Leladax, Leland McInnes, Lennoxman2, Leobinus, Leobrien, LeonShannon, Leonard G., Lesikar, Lethaniol, Levinche, Levineps,
Levon Tourjmekian, Life, Liberty, Property, Lightdarkness, Lightmouse, Lights, Ligulem, Lilreno, Linuxrocks123, Lissajous, Little green apples, LittleDan, Livedevilslivedevil, Livewings,
Lizsatoshi, Lldenke, Llort, Llydawr, Locogeneral, Logic7, LogicUser, Logicus, Logtenberg, Lokar18, Lokiloki, Lonesomeadam, Longleaf, Longshevius, Looxix, Lorast, Lord Hawk,
Article Sources and Contributors 591

LordsReform, Lostinthedark, LotR, Lotje, Lotu, LoudMouth, Louis9149432737, LucAleria, Lucian Sunday, Lucid-dream, Lucidsystems, Lucky Mitch, Luckyherb, Ludwigs2, Luk, Lukebutler,
Lumidek, Lumos3, Luna Santin, Lutherjw, MBisanz, MC10, MECU, MER-C, MH, MITalum, MJCdetroit, MK8, MONGO, MPF, Mac, Macai, Macauleyd4, Mackabean, Macker2194,
Maclean25, MadMzizike232, Magister Mathematicae, Magiwand, Magnetic Rag, Magnum2037, Mailman9, Mailseth, Maistry, Majyr, Malahci, Malatesta, Malcolm, Malcolm Farmer,
MalcolmMcDonald, Malo, Mamalujo, Manbearpigs, Manchurian candidate, Mann jess, Manticore55, Manujchandra, Mao59, MarSch, Marcika, Marcintomasz, Marcmojo01, Marco Krohn,
Margareta, Markisgreen, Marknutley, Marksda, Marskell, Martin Hogbin, MartinHarper, Martinp23, Martinphi, Maryrebecca, Massimo Macconi, MastCell, Mastaxpeng, Masterjamie,
Mastermonil, Masterofcheese, Mathchem271828, Mathijs Romans, Mathwizard1232, Matrix7777, Matt Yeager, MatthewJS, Mattisse, Mattj14, Mattjs, Mav, MayFlowerNorth, Mazca, Maziotis,
Mboverload, Mburba, McSly, Mcorazao, Mdd, Me called tree, Meade13, Mean Free Path, Medallion of Phat, Meelar, Meeples, Megaman0018, Megapixie, Mel Etitis, Mellum, Membre,
Memotype, Menkaur, Mentalhead, Menwith, Mepolypse, Mercury, MercyBreeze, Merlinme, Mermaid from the Baltic Sea, Merzbow, Mgiganteus1, Mglg, Mgs17, Mhaeberli, Mhonan, Michael
A. White, Michael C Price, Michael Hardy, Michael Johnson, Michael Shields, Michael Snow, Michael cogswell, MichaelTinkler, Michaelas10, Michaelbusch, Michaelorgan, Michapma,
Midgrid, Miguel, Miguel Andrade, Mikael Häggström, Mike Rosoft, Mike Young, MikeCapone, MikeNaylor, Mikecron, Mikenorton, Miketrogdon, Mikiemike, Mikker, MikkyGay, Milennium
Kid, MilesD3, Milton88, Mimihitam, Minesweeper, Minna Sora no Shita, Mirkin man, MisfitToys, Mishlai, Missyface, Misza13, Mithman, Mitrebox, Miurajose, Mjdon67, Mjollnir117,
Mjpieters, Mlorenz, Mnbf9rca, Mo0, Mohummy, Monkee boy, Monkeyman, MonoApe, Monsoon Waves, Mooinglemur, Moonsword, Moreschi, Morganbyers, Morphh, Mostlyharmless,
Mostwantedfreak, Mozzerati, Mpeisenbr, Mpulier, Mr Adequate, Mr Jiggy Fly, Mr magoo, Mr w, Mr. Billion, Mr. Lefty, Mr. PBJ, Mrdthree, Mrfebruary, Mrfeek, Mrjr73, Mrpayne99,
Mrtoadswildride, Mrzaius, Msiddalingaiah, Msikma, Mszegedy, Muchie11791, Mulligangroup, Munnin, Mush4brains, Mushroom, Muu-karhu, Mwanner, Mxn, My76Strat, Myanw,
Mynameismanuel, Myson45, Mytwocents, N p holmes, N.Nahber, N3X15, NBSpazz, NHSavage, NJGW, NOrbeck, NSLE, NYCJosh, Naaronne, Nacho Librarian, Nacor, Naddy, Nadyes,
Nahallac Silverwinds, Nakon, Nallan, Nani123321, Naoise hart, Narayanese, Narssarssuaq, Nathan Hall, Natra Yan, NatureA16, Naught101, NawlinWiki, Nberardi, Nctrlaltdel, Ne0Freedom,
Nealmcb, Nectarflowed, Negrulio, Neilc, Neoadam, Nerd10101010, Nescio, Nethgirb, Neutrality, New Image Uploader 929, NewEnglandYankee, Newbyguesses, Newsoxy, Nibuod, Nicehumor,
Nickps912, Nickroxvote3, Nickrules, NigariaKingo, Nigelj, Nigholith, Nikai, NikoSilver, Nil Einne, Nils Simon, Ninnnu, Nishkid64, Nitrogen86, Njh@bandsman.co.uk, Nlarcher, Nlu, Nnoell,
NoIdeaNick, Nod2003, Nonexistant User, Nopetro, Noren, Norrisce, Northumbrian, Novasource, Nposs, Nrcprm2026, Nsaa, NuclearWarfare, Nufacion, Number 0, Numbersinstitute, Nwbeeson,
Nyczack2007, OGGVOB, OKIsItJustMe, Obedium, Obli, Odd Jobbe, Odd nature, Odothebald, Ohnoitsjamie, Oinkysmith, Ojs, Oldgregg13, Oleg326756, Olorin28, Omegatron, Omghgomg,
Omicronpersei8, Omphaloscope, Oneismany, Operation Nimrod, Orangemarlin, OregonD00d, Oreiser, Oren0, Orielglassstudio, Originalwana, Oriolesfan8, OrpheusSang, Osbojos, Osbus,
Osprey73, Other Choices, Otivaeey, Overgift, OverlordQ, Owens lumber, P M Yonge, P.B. Pilhet, PDH, PFHLai, PHE, PKn, PRRfan, Pachang, Pacific PanDeist, Pak21, Pakato, Palcoin, Palffy,
Palica, Palmpilot900, Panslabrinth, Parhamr, Patmck, Patriciamaier2, Patrick0Moran, PatronSaintOfEntropy, Patstuart, Paul August, Paul Matthews, Paulenas13, Paulhking, Paulson74, Pauly04,
Pbarnes, Pcbene, Pdignam, Peak, Peanutashbourne, Peanutvampire, Pecher, Peeweejosh, Peltoms, Pengo, Pepsidrinka, Persian Poet Gal, Perspicacite, Peruvianllama, Peter Winnberg, Peter567,
PeterCskem, Peterlewis, Peterrhyslewis, Petersam, Petersec, Pevarnj, Pflatau, Pfortuny, Pgan002, Pgc512, Pgk, Pgoff, PhGustaf, Phactotum, Phaert Kut, Phandel, Phanerozoic, Phanly, Pharge,
Phenylalanine, Phenz, Pheonex, Phil Boswell, Philwelch, Phutty2000, PhysRevB, Physchim62, Picaroon, Picofluidicist, PieterD, Piezoe, Pik0, Pile0nades, Pilotguy, Pinktus, Pinotgris, PixiePixie,
Pjacobi, Pjchan1984, Pkelsey530, Planetary, Plarsh, Pleasantville, PleaseStand, Plijyqseft, Plinkit, Pol098, Polaron, Poodleboy, Poor Yorick, Portalian, Ppntori, PrBeacon, Pra dhulipalla,
Prashanthns, Prester John, PrestonH, Prodego, Prof77, Professor Chaos, Prolog, Prumpf, Psburton, Pschemp, Pseudo-Richard, Psy guy, Pt, Publicus, Publixx, Puffball, Pumpmeup, Punchy444,
Punctilius, Purebreed, Pusht, Pyroclastic, Pyrospirit, Pyrospirit (alt), Q Science, Q43, Qasdzxc, Qlkbz, QmunkE, Qmwne235, Quackofalltrades, QueenAdelaide, Quibik, QuilaBird, Quindraco,
Qxz, R'n'B, R. Baley, R4ZGR1Z, RBPierce, RIPKrt, RJBurkhart, ROBO HEN5000, RacerZero, Rachel Mccann, Raddicks, RadiantRay, RadioFan2 (usurped), Rael.cohen1, RainbowOfLight,
Raintwoto, Rajeevmass, Rama's Arrow, Rameses, Ramsquire, Randalk1, Random Article, Random account 47, RandomP, Randomblue, Randomfrenchie, Randomguy54321, Randy Kryn,
RandyLado, Raprat0, RattleMan, Raul654, Raven 1959, Ravensflight, Raymond arritt, Razor83, Rbarreira, Rbonvall, Rborghese, Rbpshp, Rd232, Rdailey1, Rdsmith4, Realitybias, Rebroad,
Reconsider the static, Red Act, Red User, Red Winged Duck, RedRabbit1983, RedWolf, Rednblu, Redthoreau, Redvers, Regener, Regoih, Rei, Relata refero, Remember, Remurmur, Rettetast,
RevanFan, Rewguy, RexNL, Reynst, Rgbd, Rgclegg, Riana, Rich Farmbrough, Richard001, RichardF, Richarddnoth, Richardericbrown1969, Richi, Richwilkinson, Rick Norwood, Rickington,
Ricky81682, Rickyrab, Ride the Universe, Risker, Rjanson, Rjd0060, Rjwilmsi, Rklawton, Rks1, Rktect, Rlliii, Rmky87, Rnt20, Roadcreature, Roar888, Robbyyy, Robens, Robert A West,
RobertG, Robertbowerman, Robertsteadman, Robertvan1, Robinh, Robromano, Robth, Rock nj, RockyMtnGuy, Rollsrox, RonCram, Ronewirl, Ronhjones, Ronjamin, Roookie777, Rootbeer,
Rorrenigol, Rory096, Rosalieroxx, Rossami, Rossnixon, Rotten, Rowdydog411, RoyBoy, Royalguard11, Rpm5099, Rracecarr, Rrloomis1, Rrohbeck, Rstrug, Rtdrury, Rudjek, Ruffrecords, Run!,
Runningonbrains, Runny123, Runt, Rupertslander, Rursus, Russian55, Ruud Koot, Rworsnop, Rwsolber, RxS, Ryan Cable, Ryan587, Ryancolm, Ryanl, Ryratt, Ryulong, S.Tychon, SDC,
SEWilco, SHIMONSHA, SJK, SJP, ST47, STUFF2o, Sacredmint, Sagefoole, Sagredo, Sailsbystars, Salend, SallyForth123, SaltyseabASS, Salva31, Sam Hocevar, Sam Korn, Samibeckley,
Samjamran, Samohyl Jan, Samsara, Samsee, Samuel Belkins, Samuel Pepys, Samuelj.fowler, Sandstein, SandyGeorgia, Sango123, Saravask, Sarcha 45, SarekOfVulcan, SaulRubenstein,
Savidan, Saxonyking, Sbandrews, Sbohra, Scannon93, Schutz, Sciamedia, Science Guy 123, Scifiintel, Scil100, Sciurinæ, Scjessey, Scmexpert, Scolty, Scorpionman, Scottman07,
Scottmcdonald97, Sea Hags, Seagull76, Sean1705, SebastianHelm, Sebsavi, Secretlondon, Seelum, Sekander94, Seqsea, Serpens, Severa, Sg227, Sgaj2099, Shadowoferagon, Shanel, Shanes,
Shangrilaista, Shashankmo, Shawine, Shawn ahmad08, Sheldon Rampton, Shenstar, Shinhan, Shizane, Shoaler, Shoeshinecs, Short Brigade Harvester Boris, Short Brigade Harvester Boris
(original), Shousokutsuu, Shozz, Shushruth, Sibbsy, Sickfreak, Sideangleside35, Sietse Snel, Siff, Sigma7r9, Siliconov, Silly rabbit, Silverback, Simeon H, Simesa, Simetrical, SimonP,
Simonm223, Simonmaltz, Simplex1swrhs, Sir Nicholas de Mimsy-Porpington, SirGrant, Sirwells, Sjakkalle, Sjorford, Skalskal, Skidude9950, Skipsievert, Skizzik, Skool of Hard Nocks,
Skyemoor, Slick Black Cadillac, SlimVirgin, Sln3412, Sloppyjoes7, Slrubenstein, Slym Gym, Sm8900, Smallie11, Smalltalkman, Smartguy583, SmartyBoots, SmilesALot, Smith609,
Smithbrenon, Smithsmith, Smithsoni0201, SmokeyTheCat, Smptq, Snapperman2, Snowhare, Snowman frosty, Snoyes, Soccerxc555, Sodium, Someoneisatthedoor, Sonjaaa, Sophia2009,
Soporaeternus, Soulpatch, SpaceFlight89, Spamsham, Spangineer, Sparrowman980, SparrowsWing, Specane, Sph147, Sphilbrick, Spiffy sperry, Spirop, Spitfire19, Splash, Spleak2021, Splette,
Spliffy, SpooningSpork, Spoonkymonkey, Squiddy, Squizz 1134, Ssilvers, Stalin IV, Staplegunther, Stardust8212, Stay cool, Stbalbach, Stedrayton, Steel, Steelersfan1243, Steffie37, SteinbDJ,
Stephan Schulz, StephanieM, Stephen Bain, Stephen G. Brown, Stephen morris, Stephen846, StephenWeber, Steppppo, Stepshep, Sterculius, Steroidfootball, Steve Thune, Steve0999,
SteveSmith, StevenR36, Stevenj, Stevenrl, Stevensensei, Stevertigo, Stevietheman, Stirling Newberry, Stl 6string, StllLucky13, Stoft, Stone, StoptheDatabaseState, Stovl, StradivariusTV, Strang
Butz, Strikesvl, Stringcheese13, StuartH, Student7, Stuey85, Sty Huey, Suhel1992, SummerPhD, Sundar, Sunray, Suomi Finland 2009, SupaStarGirl, Superbun, Superdoggy, SurfaceUnits,
Susvolans, Suzukination, Svendf, Svick, Swatjester, Swgleason, Swotboy2000, Sympa, Szajci, Szyslak, T.Neo, TDC, TFOWR, THF, TJDay, TMLutas, TSO1D, Tagishsimon, Taiketsu, Tainter,
Taleinfo, Talk2chuck, Tamás Kádár, Tangotango, Tannin, Tanuki-Dori, Tapir Terrific, Tariqabjotu, Tarquin, Tartarus21, Tassedethe, Tateum13, Taw, Tawker, Taxman, Tcwilliams, TeH
nOmInAtOr, TeaDrinker, Team venture, Techn0tic, Technicaltechy, Tedickey, Tedneeman, Teembtallent, Teemu Ruskeepää, Tegrenath, Telashian, Tellyaddict, Teltnuag, Tempshill, Temuler,
Terence, Terjepetersen, Ternto333, Terraguy, Terrawatt, Terrymacro, Tesroz, TexMurphy, Texiii, Tezp, Thadius856, That Guy, From That Show!, The Anome, The Cunctator, The Epopt, The
Filmaker, The Four Deuces, The Other Guy, The Person Who Is Strange, The Squicks, The Thing That Should Not Be, The Wikipedian Wizard, The ed17, The great grape ape is straight out of
the know, The machine512, The man stephen, The tooth, TheDJ, TheIncredibleEdibleOompaLoompa, TheJeepers, TheKMan, TheOuthouseMouse, TheSun, Theadrock13, Thecashier,
Thegoodlocust, Thegreatdr, Thejackhmr, Thekingstingray, Thelastminute, Thelastsupper, Theo Pardilla, Theone256, Thepisky, Therandomerx3, TheronJ, Thesevenseas, Thewizard397, Thierryc,
ThinkBlue, This user has left wikipedia, Thiseye, Thmcmahon, Thoams Yen, Thomas.Hedden, Thomaswilson12, Thparkth, Threop, Throttle13, Thunderstix, TigerShark, Tigersins88,
TimWalker, Timl2k4, Timmah86, Timothy Clemans, Timtom27, Tinhorao, Tiramisoo, Titanium Dragon, Titanium89man, Tito4000, Titoxd, Tjmayerinsf, Tjsynkral, Tlogmer,
ToWhomItMayConcern, Tobby72, Tobias Schmidbauer, Toby Bartels, Todd Johnston, Togedude, Toliet to tap, Tom, Tom harrison, TomPhil, Tomasdemul, Tommy2010, Tomtom9041, Tony
Fox, Tony Mobily, Tony Sidaway, Tony1, TonySt, Toolmusik, Topperfalkon, Toqueguy, Torahjerus14, Torontokid2006, Touisiau, Tp98789, Tpbradbury, Tpduden, Trafford09, Tranletuhan,
Trasman, TraustiV, Travelbird, Travis B., Tree Hugger, Treisijs, Trekphiler, Tressor, Trevdna, TreveX, Trevor.tombe, Treybien, Triadian, Trikiwi, Trillion and One, Trilobitealive, Triple-Deuce,
Triwbe, Tsogo3, Tstu, Tullie, Tuntable, Turchin, Turlo Lomon, Turtlehurricane, Tuspm, Tveesa, Twang, Twilsonb, Twinsday, UBeR, UKPragmatist, UberCryxic, UberScienceNerd,
Ucanlookitup, Ufteach, Ultramarine, Ulysses27, Ulysses95, Um2121, UmitDemir, Umurali2000, Unilli, Unionhawk, Unitanode, Unless 68, Unmerklich, Unnatural gas, Uriel8, User At Work,
Utergar, VLB Pocketspup, VQts, Val42, Valentimd, Valentin Zahrnt, Vampkiller73, Vanished user 47736712, VanishedUser314159, Vanraj72, Vapour, Vary, Vcelloho, Ventusmori, Verbal,
Vereinigen, Versageek, Vertpox, Veryaznskater, Veteran0101, Vicki Rosenzweig, Victory on High, Vikings80, Vilerage, Vinny Burgoo, Viriditas, VirtualDelight, Vishal Bakhai, Voidxor,
VoteFair, Vrinan, Vsmith, Vulpesinculta51, WGee, WJBscribe, WStewart07, Wafulz, Waitak, Warfreak, Warrentrebeg, Wassermann, WavePart, Wavelength, Wayne Slam, Wayward, Wdk,
Webbug, Webchat, Webdinger, Websammy, Wedjj, WelshMatt, Wenchell, Weregerbil, Weser, Wetman, Wgibiz, Whataboutbob, WhatamIdoing, Wheel4hummer, WhisperToMe,
Whitethunder79, Who, Wigren, Wik, Wiki User 68, Wiki alf, WikiCats, WikiDine, WikiSlasher, WikiWarming, Wikianon, Wikieditor12, Wikipch, Wikipediatoperfection, Wikipeep, Wikispan,
Wikzilla, Will Beback, Willan03, Willdog, William Avery, William M. Connolley, Williamjack, Willtron, Wings Upon My Feet, Winterst, Wisdom89, WiseWin, Wjfox2005, Wkilis, Wknight94,
Wmckibbin, Woer$, Wolfkeeper, Wolfman, WolverineOLP, Wombatcat, Work permit, Worldtraveller, Woudloper, Wragge, Wrp103, Wsiegmund, Wunpawng, Wyatt915, Wykis, XMajinx,
Xaosflux, Xevi, Xezbeth, Xfree9, Xint, Xiong Chiamiov, Xjet, XoTheVerdict, Xompanthy, Xue hanyu, Xulpheecar, Xyleborus, Y0UnG J33Zy, Yahadreas, Yamaguchi先生, Yamamoto Ichiro,
Yanksox, Yellow Gear, Yerpo, Yidle, Ymirfrostgiant, Yogi2wild, Youssefsan, Yoyoyojonnyo, Yuckfoo, Yummifruitbat, Zachfilms, Zachninme, Zacronos, Zafiroblue05, Zahid Abdassabur,
Zaphraud, Zebov, Zeeboid, Zeke Hausfather, Zeldafreak104, Zen-master, Zenwhat, Zero0000, Zidonuke, Zijie2, ZimZalaBim, Zinjixmaggir, Zippleftw, Zippy1981, Ziusudra, Zonder, ZooFari,
Zoomwsu, Zoster, Zsinj, ZuluPapa5, Zundark, ‫تشترز رادتسود‬, 3293 anonymous edits

Instrumental temperature record  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426857677  Contributors: ADNghiem501, Adam McMaster, Adambro, Alexh19740110, Allstarecho,
Ameliorate!, ArielGold, Arnon Chaffin, AssegaiAli, Atmoz, Audiovideo, Autopilot, Banaticus, BanyanTree, Bender235, Benhocking, Blah42, Bob Palin, Bobblewik, Bobo192, Boud, Brusegadi,
DanniDK, Dark Mage, Dave souza, Dragons flight, DreamsReign, Drf5n, EastTN, Ed Poor, Edgar181, Falcon8765, FeelFreeToBe, Feline Hymnic, ForeignerFromTheEast, Gabethenerd, Gabriel
Kielland, Gene Nygaard, Giorgiogp2, Go leafs22, Goatchurch, Goron352, GrouchyDan, Gwernol, Hal peridol, Hasek is the best, Hertz1888, HiEv, Iceage77, Id447, Ineke1025, Insanity
Incarnate, J.delanoy, JavierMC, JeLuF, Jhalpern, Joldy, JonGwynne, Jorfer, Kevin Schostek, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Leebo, Leland McInnes, MER-C, Marcoocram, MarkHudson, MartinHarper,
Massitt, Matthew Woodcraft, Matthurricane, Meggar, Menwith, Mifter, MiguelTremblay, Mishlai, Mrfebruary, Nancy, Nihiltres, Nuggetboy, Oxymoron83, PatronSaintOfEntropy, Pb30,
PhysRevB, Piano non troppo, Plasticup, RDBrown, RatchetPawl, RayTomes, Raymond arritt, Redfarmer, Redlad07, Rednblu, Revolutionaryluddite, Rich Farmbrough, Rjwilmsi, RonCram,
Rosarinagazo, SEWilco, Science enthusiast343, Sheldon Rampton, Shenstar, Short Brigade Harvester Boris, Simplex1swrhs, Skizzik, Soap, Spellmaster, SpyMagician, Star Mississippi,
SunCreator, TMLutas, The Thing That Should Not Be, TheSeven, Theblog, Thew25, Tillman, TimLambert, Tindlet, Tommy Kronkvist, Tommy2010, Tony Sidaway, Touch Of Light,
Trainspotter, Ttony21, User Team, Veteran0101, Vildricianus, Viriditas, Vodkasim, Vsmith, William M. Connolley, Zoomwsu, 249 anonymous edits
Article Sources and Contributors 592

Temperature record of the past 1000 years  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=422122264  Contributors: 2over0, Alan Liefting, Alansohn, Anastrophe, Awickert, Bender235,
Benhocking, Bfinn, Blah42, Bobo192, Brusegadi, Bryanb117, C-randles, Calton, Canopus1, Catmoongirl, Catskul, Cecropia, Chanakal, Charles Matthews, Childhoodsend, Ckatz, Clarince63,
Cortonin, CrenshawB, CynicalSurprise, DLH, Daphne A, Dark Eyed Junco, Denorris, Dilaudid, Dogcow, Dr Dec, DrBob, Dragons flight, Dysprosia, Ed Poor, Emil Durkehim, Erebus555,
Ericpaulson, Erik9, Excirial, Facethefacts, FraKa, Fvincent, Gabbe, GangofOne, Ghw777, Giftlite, Giler, Giorgiogp2, GirasoleDE, Graham87, GregorB, Guettarda, Hailtomaximus, Hans Erren,
Haxwell, Heron, JS, JackofOz, Jcobb, JonGwynne, Jorfer, Kaal, Kevin Nelson, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Korg, Kzzl, Leland McInnes, LudoDeClercq, Lumidek, Main B Bus Undervolt, Marco
Krohn, MarkR1717, Marknutley, Merlinme, Methand, MichaelSirks, Moreati, NatureA16, NeonMerlin, OGGVOB, Oberono, Peregrine981, Philip Trueman, Poindexter Propellerhead, Porphy,
Prolog, Q Science, RDBrown, Raymond arritt, Res2216firestar, Reywas92, Rich Farmbrough, RonCram, SBO, SEWilco, Sailsbystars, Sam Hocevar, SamuelNe, Schmloof, Shanes, Shii, Sin-man,
Sln3412, Sloughed, Sparkzilla, Spiffy sperry, Spinynorman, Splette, Spot87, Srmatte, Stephan Schulz, Stevecarsonr, Tagishsimon, Tassedethe, The Random Editor, TheSeven, Thegreatdr,
Thomas Yeardly, Tiberdus, Tony Sidaway, UBeR, Ubiq, VasilievVV, Vice regent, Vsmith, WVBluefield, Wavelength, Whiteyschwartz, WikiuserNI, William M. Connolley, Zappernapper, Zsinj,
151 anonymous edits

Historical climatology  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=413717897  Contributors: Bendzh, Climatica, Count Iblis, Davidstrauss, Dhaluza, Everlong, FritsKoek, Gabriel
Kielland, Jocce, KOosthoek, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Malcolma, Peterlewis, RDBrown, Ratarsed, Rjwilmsi, Sooner80, Wavelength, William Avery, William M. Connolley, 7 anonymous edits

Paleoclimatology  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425482466  Contributors: 13alexander, 23Simon, ABCD, Adamsan, AlexD, Allen4names, Ancheta Wis, Armeria, Aude,
Autopilot, Awickert, BaF, Bender235, Bigdan201, Biopresto, Birczanin, Birdbrainscan, Bowser, Breno, C.Fred, CanisRufus, CasualObserver'48, Chris the speller, ChyranandChloe,
Cvlpennington, DARTH SIDIOUS 2, Dabade, Dale.tersey, Dan Pangburn, Dauto, Davewild, Davidstrauss, Deville, Dragons flight, Dysmorodrepanis, Edipedia, Editore99, Edward, ErilLanin,
Ettrig, Evolauxia, Farnshon, FellGleaming, Fred Bauder, FritsKoek, GeoGreg, Gergyl, Ghgugiff, Gob Lofa, Goldor, GraemeL, GregBenson, Gsp8181, Haidata, Haim Berman, Headbomb,
Hephaestos, Heroic665, Hu12, IRP, Icairns, JG17, JLCA, JorisvS, Jyril, Kauczuk, Kessler, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Knowledge Seeker, Kop, Lexor, LilHelpa, MER-C, Mac Davis, Mackinaw,
Magnus Manske, Malcolm Farmer, Michael Devore, Mikenorton, Mlaffs, Mporter, Nakon, NatureA16, Nigelj, NorthernFire, Oscar Evans, Pacaro, PericlesofAthens, Peterlewis, Phil Boswell,
Philip Sutton, Philip Trueman, Phoenix2, Pietrow, Plastikspork, Polentario, Possum, Pádraic MacUidhir, RDBrown, Random account 47, Rd232, Readopedia, Retran, RevRagnarok, Rich
Farmbrough, Rjwilmsi, Rosarinagazo, Rursus, SEWilco, Sam Hocevar, Scratcher, Sean Et Cetera, Shadowjams, Siim, Simple Bob, Smith609, Spinningspark, Stormwriter, Sverdrup, Tainter,
Tasc, TeaDrinker, Teledildonix314, That Guy, From That Show!, The Thing That Should Not Be, The shaggy one, Thegreatdr, TimVickers, Timbo68, Tommy2010, Tranletuhan, Tuntable,
Twirling, Twthmoses, UBeR, V6TCanada, Vsmith, Vyznev Xnebara, WRK, Wavelength, Wikipe-tan, Will Beback Auto, William M. Connolley, William Ortiz, WolfmanSF, WormRunner,
YellowFives, Yk Yk Yk, Zidane tribal, Ziggydingle, 139 anonymous edits

Biofuel  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426166532  Contributors: -Majestic-, 168..., 28bytes, A. B., A12n, A3camero, A4MES1, Aarnjb, Acalamari, Acschwim, Adrian0808,
AdultSwim, Ag2003, Akadruid, Alan Liefting, Alansohn, Albmont, Alex Ramon, AlexSun123, Alexf, AlexiusHoratius, Ali, Almuth, Alpha Centaury, Alphatwo, Altermike, Alvestonian,
Amandawutnn, Ambarprakashan, Ananbo, Andersneld, Andres, Andrewjlockley, Andrewpmk, Anlace, Anna Lincoln, Anog, Antandrus, Antilived, Antonio Lopez, Appeltree1, ArielGold,
Arthena, Arunesh85, Ary29, Asdirk, Asterion, Astropata, Atlant, Auntof6, Avenged Eightfold, Avoided, Awatten, Ayla, Azikala, AzureFury, Azxten, Babakmomen, Bachrach44, Bakabaka,
Baran07, Barney Gumble, Beagel, Beetstra, Belgrano, BenFrantzDale, Bendroz, Bendzh, Benny7820, Beno795, BerserkerBen, Berserkerz Crit, Bestian, Betacommand, Betterusername, BfMGH,
Biker Biker, Biscuittin, BjKa, Blablablob, Black Falcon, Blackangel25, Blanchardb, Bletch, Blissfulpain, BluGill, Bobo192, Bogey97, Bolling1, Bongwarrior, Bonus Onus, Borgx, BozMo, Brad
Kenney, Brastein, Brazzouk, Brian Everlasting, Brockert, Brusegadi, Bryan Derksen, Buckston, Bushcutter, C. Foultz, CA387, CDest, Calabraxthis, Caltas, CambridgeBayWeather, Can't sleep,
clown will eat me, Canadian-Bacon, Canthusus, Capricorn42, Carlcarlcarl, Cartman02au, Cataclasite, Cbriens, Ccrazymann, Cedric Briens, Centonup, Chalms89, Chan Yin Keen, ChangChienFu,
Changerofthings, Chekristo, ChemGardener, Chendy, Childhoodsend, Chmyr, Chodges, Chris Q, Chris goulet, Christian75, Chriswaterguy, Chun-hian, Cimbalom, Cincaipatrin, Ciphergoth,
Ckatz, Clark89, Clayoquot, ClintonKu, Closedmouth, Coastwise, Cobi, Colonies Chris, Coltsfan126, Cometstyles, CommonsDelinker, Confuzion, Cookiemonsterhat, Cornstoves, Cpl Syx,
Craigsjones, Crowsnest, Cst17, Cxz111, Cyclonebiskit, DARTH SIDIOUS 2, DOHill, DVdm, DabMachine, Dagloman19, Dagvidur, Dan D. Ric, Dan Dreadless, Dancter, Danfolkestone,
DanielCD, DannyDaWriter, Darin-0, DarkArcher, Darking764, Darrell Smith1010, Dave1g, Daven brown, David DuByne, Dazal2005, Dbabbitt, Ddelpercio, DeLarge, Decltype, Deli nk, Delldot,
Dem393, Dennis Brown, Der Rabe Ralf, DerHexer, Derild4921, Deyholos, Dialecticator, Disbala, Djhyperman, Djkhalad, Djnjwd, Dlohcierekim, DocWatson42, Docdik, Doctor Biofuel,
DodgeTheBullet, DoubleBlue, Drbjorn, Drdaveng, Dreadstar, Drf1, Dsmith7707, Dspradau, Ductape, Duncan.france, Dureo, Dvamax, Dylan620, E8, Eaffe, EagleOne, Eboner, Ec5618,
Economyweb, Edderso, Edgar181, Edivorce, Edward, Edwardm, El C, El barto8, Elekhh, Element16, Eliz81, Em0299, Emilio lopez king, Energy Dome, EnergyIndependence, Energybeing,
Enigmaman, Enigmatist23, Enuja, Envirocorrector, Epbr123, Erebus555, Erguvan7, EscapingLife, Escientist, Etip, Euchiasmus, Everard Proudfoot, Everyking, Excirial, FJPB, Faigl.ladislav,
Falcon8765, Fan2foot2003, Farmjustice2010, Farosdaughter, Femto, Fiddler on the green, Finalius, Fisherjs, Flajt, Flewis, Florentino floro, Food&fuel, Foolishben, Foscoe, Fotoguzzi, Four
Doors, Fourjustice9, Fraaj, Franchez3, Fsbr1908, Fuxya bxl, GGByte, GIREMO, GTZ-44-ecosan, GVnayR, Gabbe, Gabethenerd, Gadfium, Gail, Gary King, Gathall, Gatorfuel, GavinTing,
Geoff Plourde, Geoffrey.landis, Georgeiiird, Georgina31Green, Gerfriedc, Geronimo2k, Gfoley4, Giftlite, Gilesclark, Gilliam, Gioto, Gipolage, Glenn, Gobonobo, Goc sk, Gogo Dodo,
Golgofrinchian, Gordino0, Gr1st, GraemeL, Grafen, Gralo, Grantrowe, Greentechguru, Greenzen, Greg Comlish, Grundle2600, Grunt, Gurch, H falcon, HaeB, Hakuin, Hans Dunkelberg,
Hardyplants, Harrypeterfrog, Headwes, HealthySkepticism, Heracles31, Hontonikawaiidesu, Hooperbloob, Hopsyturvy, Htomfields, Hu12, Hulagutten, HybridBoy, Hydro2, ILovePlankton, IRP,
Ian Pitchford, Ihatedylan, Ike9898, Illustria, Ilyushka88, Imperfection, ImperfectlyInformed, Impu1se, Incrediblehunk, Indon, Info0409, Infobios, Insanity Incarnate, Intern8, Ioeth, Iridescent, Its
snowing in East Asia, Ixfd64, J.delanoy, J04n, JForget, JLaTondre, JNW, JRHorse, JaGa, Jac16888, Jack campion, Jack007, Jackfork, Jakeschode, James086, JamesGiant, Jamescp, Jameswkb,
Jamez124, Jane 187, Javier Odom, Jdpipe, Jebba, Jebus989, JeffreyLMason, Jeltz, Jensbn, JeremyCherfas, Jethrokill, Jgoverly, Jhinman, Jimmiller5417, Jkander59, JoeSmack, Joel7687,
Joffeloff, John, Johnfos, Johnpauljones2007, Johnpseudo, Jon Cates, Jonathanstray, Jonnysonthespot, Jorge Stolfi, Joshua Dorr, Jossi, Jrsandor, Jshapira, Julpics, Jumanous, Jwanders, Jwpurple,
KAM, Kamlavati, KarlHouseknecht, Karlhahn, Karmosin, Katherine, Kauymatty2, Kbh3rd, Kcordina, Keegscee, Keilana, Kelly Martin, Kenb215, Keziah, Khatru2, Kiel2274, Kilmer-san,
Kingpin13, Kjkolb, KnowledgeOfSelf, Knowzilla, Koppas, Kostisl, Kozuch, Kraftlos, Ksenon, Kshpitsa, Ktalah, Kudret abi, Kymacpherson, L Kensington, LOL, Lac10528, Landon1980,
Lanza33, Lawrencekhoo, Ldbio130, Leaderofearth, LeaveSleaves, Lectron7, Lejasonman, Les boys, Lewisskinner, LeyteWolfer, Lfh, LibLord, Liberatus, Lightdarkness, Lightmouse,
Linkman21, Lkleinjans, Lodp, Logan, Longshevius, Looktothisday, Loren.wilton, Lozeldafan, Luiclemens, Luis1972, Luna Santin, M albertson, MER-C, MPF, Mac, Mahlum, Man2392,
Mareino, Marginoferror, MarieEuro, Mariordo, Marissa leitman, MarthaHolley, Masonfree40, Mato, Maximus Rex, Maxis ftw, Mcswell, Meco, MediaReport, Melaen, MementoVivere,
Memotype, Mendaliv, Mentifisto, Merope, Mgdurand, Michellebentham, Midgrid, Mietchen, Mifter, Mikal42, Mike Young, MikeLynch, Mikeo, Mikershniker, Mikiemike, Mikima,
Milimetersquared, Mion, Mipadi, Mir, Mistapopsicle, Miyashita, Mićo, Mkweise, Molobo, MonkeyW004, Monkofthetrueschool, Monster eagle, Morrisonfoto, Mr Who 0, MrOllie, Mrfebruary,
Mschiffler, Muissus, MusicMaker5376, Mwanner, Myanw, Mygerardromance, NJGW, NachshonR, NadimChaudhry, Nancy, Ncbiofuels, Ncmvocalist, NeilN, NiN, Nick Number, NickBush24,
Niljay, NiteSensor23, Nmabraha, Noamse, Noctibus, Nopetro, Nposs, Nrcprm2026, Nscott.odi, Nskillen, Nukeless, Nuttycoconut, Oakmedia, Ocaasi, Okbicknell, OlavN, Old Moonraker,
Oldboltonian, Oldekop, Oleg Alexandrov, Olin, Omegawarrior, Open2universe, Opsterics, Optimism.rll, Oupi, OverlordQ, Oxymoron83, Ozonevibe, P M Yonge, PFHLai, POVpushee,
Paleorthid, PandaName, Pandion auk, Papajohnin, Paperdgy, Party, Pathean, Paumonok, Pdcook, Pekinensis, Pengo, Peter reimers, PeterSymonds, Petercasier, Petrolmaps, Pgan002, Pganas,
Philip Trueman, Photonyte, Pimort, Pinethicket, Plenaluz, Plfx, Pomie, Poppafuze, Ptbeale, Pumeleon, Punchi, Quaeler, QuantumEleven, Quasarstrider, Qxz, R. fiend, Radiant chains, Radon210,
RainbowOfLight, Ralph Purtcher, RandomP, Raul654, Rborghese, Reach Out to the Truth, Reaper Eternal, Rebekah Hamrick, RedWolf, RepublicanJacobite, Res2216firestar, RexNL,
Rgoodermote, Rich Farmbrough, RichardF, Rickyrab, Rifleman 82, Rjgodoy, Rjwilmsi, Rklawton, Rmhermen, Rnt20, Roadrunner, Rockfang, Rodney Boyd, Rohawn, Rokfaith, Ronz,
RossPatterson, RoyBoy, Roycombya, Rprpr, S, S Marshall, SCEhardt, SEWilco, SJP, ST47, Saayiit, Saintrain, Salix alba, Salvio giuliano, Sam Hocevar, Sambhar, Saneeta, Sango123, Sappe,
Sbandrews, Scarian, SchfiftyThree, Schumi555, Scohoust, Scrapper doo, Scrippsnews, SebastianHelm, Securiger, Sepeople, Severa, Shadowjams, Shanes, Shattered Gnome, Sibenson,
SierraSkier, Sillybilly, Silvert89, Silvonen, SiobhanHansa, Sionus, Sir Nicholas de Mimsy-Porpington, Skier Dude, Skierno1tiger, Skubeska, Sladuuch, Sleske, Smartse, Smite-Meister,
Snigbrook, Snilax, Snowolf, Solntsa, Soumyasch, SpK, Spotsilver, SqueakBox, Staygold2, Steave John, Stebbiv, Stepa, Stephenb, Steve3849, Steven Zhang, Stlwebs, Stone, Storkk, Streaks102,
Subsailor, Supercoop, Supine, Sustainableyes, Susten.biz, Susurrus, Sveinhorn, Swid, T@nn, THEN WHO WAS PHONE?, TJFox, TMSTKSBK, TOGASHI Jin, TR is a lunatic, Tanthalas39,
Taxman, TeH nOmInAtOr, Teles, Tenthfirst, Teratornis, Thameshead, The Thing That Should Not Be, The-Doctor, TheBusiness, TheFeds, TheGrimReaper NS, ThePillock, TheRealOzzy,
TheRingess, Theabzero, Theanphibian, Therefore, Thingg, Think outside the box, ThisMunkey, Thomaslau, Tickerhead, Tide rolls, Tigg23e4, Tim333, Timo Honkasalo, Timothy Teo,
Tirthajyoti, Toby Bartels, TomMc, Tomsperoni, Tonydomrep, Touch Of Light, Tresiden, Trevor MacInnis, Tro95, TrulyBlue, Trulystand700, Trusilver, Tsiaojian lee, Ttamers, Tualha, Tuatar,
Tucano2, Tunheim, Txuspe, Typ932, Uli, UnHoly, Underpants, Unschool, Urbangarden, Ussbham, V8rik, Vald, Vary, Vaughan Pratt, Versageek, Vesco77, Vgy7ujm, Victordelpanno,
VictorianMutant, Vincecate, Vinceslas, Vkvladman, Vortexrealm, Vrenator, Vsmith, WAS 4.250, WLRoss, Waitak, Warfvinge, Waterfox, Wavelength, Waynersampson69, Wayward,
Webaware, West.andrew.g, Western arch, Wiki alf, Wikidenizen, William S. Saturn, Willking1979, Willwin0001, Wimt, Winchelsea, Wl219, Wolfkeeper, Woohookitty, Worldthoughts,
Wtmitchell, Wwoods, X!, X201, X5frt, Xenonice, Xezbeth, Xmort, Xymmax, Yerpo, YordanGeorgiev, Youssefsan, Zack Holly Venturi, Zalgo, Zeno Izen, Zhernovoi, Zidonuke, Zodon, Zoicon5,
Zouden, Zozzie 9t9, Zzuuzz, 2026 anonymous edits

Earth's energy budget  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425114106  Contributors: Amikake3, Art LaPella, Atmoz, Battye, Berkut, Blouis79, Bob Stein - VisiBone,
Bobblewik, Bryan Derksen, C.Fred, Chris the speller, Coppertwig, CrossoverManiac, Daniel C, DarkPhoenix, Dragons flight, Duae Quartunciae, Frietjes, Geoffrey.landis, Heracles31, Heron,
Hibernian, Huw Powell, Jason Patton, Josh Parris, Kr-val, Mandarax, Marknutley, Materialscientist, Menwith, Mierlo, N p holmes, Neutrality, NuclearWarfare, Ohnoitsjamie, Peruvianllama,
Plumbago, Poodleboy, RDBrown, RIS cody, Res2216firestar, RexNL, Rich Farmbrough, Slow entrophyy, Stillnotelf, Thincat, Tideflat, Tomtheman5, Ultramarine, Veteran0101, Virtual Cowboy,
Vsmith, Wavelength, William M. Connolley, Wwoods, Zoicon5, 71 anonymous edits

Earth's radiation balance  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=393489054  Contributors: 1l2, AlexD, Aranymalinko, Art LaPella, Atmoz, Daven200520, Dragons flight,
Estevoaei, Gabriel Kielland, M.veenstra, Saperaud, Wavelength, William M. Connolley, 4 anonymous edits

Fossil fuel  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=427172906  Contributors: -- April, 02dcat, 1234d, 15bucka, 5 albert square, 7castle, ABF, Aaron Brenneman, Aaron390, Abd,
Adam.bakewell, Adashiel, Addshore, AdjustShift, Adrian J. Hunter, Ae1997, Aeon1006, AgainErick, AgentPeppermint, Ahoerstemeier, Aitias, Aksi great, Alan Liefting, Alansohn, Alaudo, Ale
jrb, Aleenf1, AlexBG72, Alexius08, AlexiusHoratius, Alfio, Alias Flood, Allenellen, Almostit, Altermike, Alucard (Dr.), Amadeust, An Unknown Person, Anastrophe, Anda7, Andres,
Article Sources and Contributors 593

Andrewpmk, Andy Marchbanks, Anlace, Anna Lincoln, Anonymous editor, Antandrus, Arcanum547, Arcanum548, Archanamiya, Arjun01, Arm elf, Arthena, Aruton, Asm79, Atif.t2, Aude,
Aunt Entropy, Autopilot, Avoided, Awickert, AxelBoldt, BD2412, BTLizard, Ba3basa, Bachrach44, BananaFiend, BarretBonden, Beagel, Beetstra, Beland, Belligero, BenB4, Benhutchings,
Benol, Berkunt, Berkut, Betterusername, Bevington5, Bfigura's puppy, Bill37212, Blackjack48, Blanchardb, Bleh999, Bloodshedder, Bmichellejoyner, Bobo192, Bonus Onus, Boom 2010,
Bootstoots, Borameer, Brambleclawx, Brian the Editor, Briancollins, Brianga, BritishWatcher, Brooke87, Brusegadi, Bsadowski1, Bubbledumbo, Buddhipriya, Bugfood, BuickCenturyDriver,
Burntsauce, Butros, CSWarren, CWY2190, CWii, CactusWriter, Caen, Calmer Waters, Caltas, Calvin 1998, Can't sleep, clown will eat me, Canderson7, CapitalR, Capricorn42, Captain-tucker,
CardinalDan, CarlosCoppola, Casey56, Cbustapeck, Ccmcgowen, Cferrero, ChaosNil, Charlieboijones, Chasingsol, ChildofMidnight, Chris.urs-o, Christian Boshman, Chuunen Baka, Ckatz,
Cksuperman, Clod2105, Closedmouth, Cntras, Cocytus, Cometstyles, ContinueWithCaution, Corpx, Corvus, Courcelles, Cpl Syx, Cquan, Crystallina, Csigabi, Ctbolt, Curtmack, DARTH
SIDIOUS 2, DRTJR, DVD R W, DVdm, DabMachine, Dalillama, Damian Yerrick, Damicatz, DancingPenguin, Daniel, DanielCD, Danski14, Darkbandit27, Darkwind, Davewild, David0811,
Davidkazuhiro, Dawn Bard, Dbfirs, Ddkiller, DeadEyeArrow, Deconstructhis, Deenoe, Dekimasu, DerHexer, Dgies, Dhendricks7, Diannaa, Discospinster, Dlugo6089, Doc9871, Doczilla,
Donarreiskoffer, DoubleBlue, Doulos Christos, Download, Dragons flight, Dranzersaad, Dreadstar, Drmies, Drthomasj, Drunkenmonkey, Dsilas, DuKu, Duncan, Dureo, E2eamon, EJF, ERcheck,
ESkog, Ed Poor, Edolen1, Edward321, Eisnel, Elijah14, Ember of Light, Emc2, Emote, Enric Naval, Enviroboy, Envirocorrector, Environnement2100, Eowend, Epbr123, Eric Wieser,
Eric-Wester, Ericah2, Ericd, Erik9, Escape Orbit, Esg88, Evercat, Everyguy, Everyking, EvilPizza, Excirial, EyeSerene, FF2010, Fahadsadah, Falcon8765, Fang Aili, Farosdaughter, Favonian,
Fetchcomms, Fireice, FisherQueen, Flewis, Flipskater578, Flower Priest, FlyingToaster, Fooljoe, Footyhead250, FrancoGG, Frankenpuppy, Fratrep, Frbloke101, FreplySpang, Fumitol,
Fusionmix, G4rce, GB fan, GR002, GVnayR, Gabbe, Gaia Octavia Agrippa, Gail, Gary King, Garywill, Gazpacho, Geneb1955, Geologyguy, Gerardw, Gfadsfjasd jk, Giftlite, Gilliam, Glane23,
Glen, Glenn, Global10133, Gogo Dodo, Goonaim, GorillaWarfare, Gralo, Grammaticus Repairo, Greatfriend, Gurch, Gurchzilla, Gutandguns, Guy Harris, H Padleckas, HJ Mitchell, Hadal,
Haemo, Hamiltha, Happydude12345, Hatmaskin, Hell13, Hephaestos, Heracles31, Herzen, Hestonkelsey, Hfcom, Hiddekel, Hmains, Hmwith, HolIgor, Horselover12, Horsepoodle, Hu12,
HybridBoy, I already forgot, I dream of horses, IRP, Ian Pitchford, Idleguy, Iginla7, Imjustmatthew, Immunize, Indyjr3, Inter, Iridescent, It Is Me Here, Ixfd64, J.delanoy, JTN, Ja 62, Jackfirst,
Jackfork, Jackol, Jaimedv, JamesBWatson, Jamott, Jandrewc, Jared W, Jasonwu1197, Jauerback, Jauhienij, JavierMC, Jaxl, Jbond 12, Jebba, Jeepday, Jeff G., Jeff Janes, Jennavecia, Jespinos,
JetJon, Jinu Park, Jj137, Joanjoc, JoanneB, Joe611jg, JoeBlogsDord, JoeSmack, Joepgray, JohnSawyer, Johnleemk, Johnpauljones2007, Jojhutton, Jolivio, Jorge Ianis, Josh Heza, Joshstro, Jossi,
Juliancolton, Jusdafax, Karlthegreat, Katalaveno, Kcordina, Keilana, KeithB, KenGuy5472, Kerotan, Kevindavid, Keziah, Khukri, Killbosley, Killiondude, Kilowattradio, KimDabelsteinPetersen,
King of Hearts, Kingpin13, Kkikiki, KnowledgeOfSelf, Krawi, Krich, Ksargent, Ktsquare, Kubigula, Kungfuadam, Kurykh, Lavintzin, Leafyplant, Lear's Fool, LeaveSleaves, LedgendGamer,
Leevoy, Lenoxus, Leuko, LibLord, Liface, Lightdarkness, Lightmouse, Lights, Linas, LizardJr8, Lkgds, Llightex, Logologist, Loquetus, Loren.wilton, Lova Falk, Luk, Luna Santin, Lupo, MC10,
MER-C, MGTom, MONGO, MPerel, Mac, Madhero88, Magister Mathematicae, Majorclanger, Majorly, Mak Thorpe, Manunited96, Marek69, MarkSutton, Marknutley, MattKingston,
Matthardingu, Matthew Yeager, Mav, Maxamegalon2000, Maxis ftw, Maxster127, Maxwellkchristian, Maxyrules, Maziotis, Mcarling, Mdmcginn, Mentifisto, Merdenary415, Midnightcomm,
Mikenorton, Mikeo, Miketm, Milagros1000, Mild Bill Hiccup, MilesAgain, Milkyface, Millere08, Millslap, Mini-Geek, Minimac, Minimac's Clone, Minna Sora no Shita, Miyagawa, Mmanafi,
Moe Epsilon, Monkeymanman, Moralis, Mordgier, Moreschi, Mosti48, Mr Stephen, Mr. Lefty, Mr.Z-man, Mtjaws, Mur42, Mushroom, Mwanner, Myanw, Mylittlesmello, N5iln, Naddy, Nakon,
Napkinman, Naryathegreat, Natl1, NawlinWiki, Nayabayaaaa, Needhamt, Netkinetic, Neurolysis, Neverquick, NevilleDNZ, NewEnglandYankee, Nick, Niharika Sonavane, Nivix, Nk,
NodnarbLlad, Nolamgm, Nopetro, Notheruser, Nrcprm2026, Nsaa, Nubiatech, Nukeless, Od Mishehu, Oda Mari, Oliver202, Omegatron, Omicronpersei8, Opelio, Orange Suede Sofa, Ori.livneh,
Orion11M87, Orphan Wiki, Orphic, Os2man, Osiferrod, Osigalas, Outriggr, Oxomollyhoxo, Oxymoron83, Pandion auk, PaulGarner, Paulkim123, Pax:Vobiscum, Pb30, Pekaje, Pentalith,
Peruvianllama, Pethr, Petri Krohn, Pgk, Phaedriel, Phanly, Phantomsteve, Pharaoh of the Wizards, PhilHibbs, Philip Trueman, Philippe, Piano non troppo, Piast93, Picus viridis, Pilotguy,
Pinethicket, Planetary Chaos, Plazak, Plinkit, Plumbago, Po panda, Poindexter Propellerhead, Polaus2, Politepunk, Pollinator, Polluxian, Pontificalibus, Possum, PrestonH, Prodego, Puchiko,
Pyrospirit, Qqzzccdd, Quintote, Qxz, RachnaS7, RadioFan2 (usurped), RainbowOfLight, Rcawsey, Recneps138, Rehman, Ren0, Retaggio, RexNL, Rhyslist, Rich Farmbrough, Rittard, Rjwilmsi,
Rmhermen, Rmosler2100, Roadrunner, Rob Hooft, Robalobster, Robsavoie, Robth, Robwingfield, Roleplayer, Ronhjones, Rossami, Rudolf 1922, Ryanrahn, SEWilco, SJP, SWAdair, Salsb, Sam
Korn, Santonm, Sbandrews, SchuminWeb, Sean Whitton, Seancron, Seaphoto, Seba5618, Semperf, Senor Purple, Sesu Prime, Shabnab123, Shadowlynk, Shappy, Sharvila, ShaunES, Shawn in
Montreal, Shawn micheals, Shell Kinney, Shipmaster, Shivani mane, Shoessss, Shotgun5559, SiloZen, Silverchemist, Simeon H, Sionus, Sir Nicholas de Mimsy-Porpington, Sir Vicious, Smartse,
Snailmaster, SnappingTurtle, SoCalSuperEagle, SoSaysChappy, Sockatume, Soliloquial, Some jerk on the Internet, Someguy1221, SonicTiff, Soosed, Soul phire, SpaceFlight89, Spangineer,
Spiffy sperry, Sportyking, Spud69, SpuriousQ, Squiddy, Srleffler, StarTrekkie, StateOfTheUnion, Staxringold, Steel, Stephenb, Sterlingda, Steven Weston, StoptheDatabaseState, Struthers00,
Stwalkerster, Subash.chandran007, Subdolous, Sunray, Sven42, Sylent, Synchronism, T, T.C. Craig, THEN WHO WAS PHONE?, Takatoriyama, Tannin, Tanyo93, Tarret, Taxman, TeH
nOmInAtOr, Team saint lucia, Techman224, TedE, Tellyaddict, Terrace4, Terse, ThaddeusB, The Rambling Man, The Thing That Should Not Be, The sock that should not be, The wub,
TheBusiness, TheDJ, TheTrueSora, Theanphibian, Thebestdudeever, Thebestkind, Theda, Theoneintraining, Think outside the box, Thomasami, Threlicus, Tiddly Tom, Tide rolls, TigerShark,
Timmytootpants, Titoxd, Tnxman307, Toddst1, Tom harrison, Tommy2010, Tony Sidaway, Touchi4888, Treisijs, Trevor MacInnis, Triwbe, Turgan, Tyler, Ukexpat, Ulric1313, Ultramarine,
Uncle Dick, Universal Hero, Unschool, Useagev2, Useight, User2004, Utcursch, Uusitunnus, VI, Valodzka, Vanished user 39948282, Veatch, Vector Potential, Vectorsoftware, VernoWhitney,
Versageek, Vincecate, Vishnava, Vrenator, Vsmith, Waggers, Walor, Wareareatewa, Wavelength, Wayward, West London Dweller, Whisky drinker, Wifione, WikHead, Wiki alf,
WikipedianMarlith, Wikipelli, Wikkidd, Will Beback Auto, William M. Connolley, Wilt, Wimt, Wine Guy, Wisdom89, Withlyn, Wizofaus, Wj32, Wjejskenewr, WpZurp, Wperdue, Wulve,
Wysprgr2005, Xcentaur, Xornok, XxstarlyitxX, Yamaguchi先生, Yamamoto Ichiro, Yamla, Yoyosuek, ZWASHERE, Zachary, Zaf, Zaharous, Zalgo, ZamorakO o, Zamphuor, Zappernapper,
ZenerV, Zepheriah, Zuff, Zé da Silva, 2731 anonymous edits

Global dimming  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425229572  Contributors: AC+79 3888, AManWithNoPlan, Aesopos, Ahunt, Alan Liefting, Alansohn, Altenmann,
Amar2556, Andrewjlockley, Angr, Ari212, Aristotle Pagaltzis, ArthurWeasley, Atmoz, AzaToth, B.holthuijsen, Badagnani, Bawolff, Beland, Bennelliott, Bergsten, Bob666, Bobblewik,
Bobo192, Branddobbe, Brockert, Btljs, Calibean55, Cameta, Chanting Fox, Chapdanman, CheekyMonkey, Chicco3, Chiel, Circeus, Ckatz, Coelacan, Cometogether, CommonsDelinker,
Conn104, Count Iblis, CrenshawB, DARTH SIDIOUS 2, Danelo, Dar-Ape, Dawei20, DerHexer, Deryck Chan, Dhaluza, Divinestuff, Djbaniel, Dragons flight, Edgar181, Enescot, Epastore,
Evanherk, Evolauxia, Extra999, Fartyharty101, Fourohfour, Frankenpuppy, G. Warren Grant, Gabbe, Gabriel Kielland, Gaius Cornelius, Garzo, GeeJo, Ghaly, Gikü, Gilliam, Gobulls1234, Gralo,
Granitethighs, Green Stoole, Grim Revenant, Gustavocarra, H0riz0n, Hal peridol, Hetar, Hiddenfromview, Hut 8.5, Ice teeth, Igiffin, Igoldste, J.delanoy, JRR Trollkien, Jakohn, Jamespaton2,
Jamie C, Jni, John Fader, John Nevard, Johnuniq, Joseph Solis in Australia, Josh Parris, Jrtayloriv, Julesd, Junglecat, KVDP, Kgrr, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Kirachinmoku, Kittycat9981, Kopfer,
Kozuch, Kwsn, LFaraone, Lee M, Lelkesa, Liepert, Lightmouse, Lilpenisryan, Linegen, Logan, Lordmontu, LordsReform, Metamagician3000, Mgiganteus1, Michael Hardy, Michbich,
Mkpaquette, Mostlyharmless, Mr Stephen, Msavidge, Mushin, Mxn, Myscrnnm, NHSavage, Natra Yan, Nehrams2020, Nevit, New4325, NewEnglandYankee, Nick Number, Nigholith, Nils
Simon, Nima Baghaei, Oakwright, OhanaUnited, Onoj, Onorem, Opelio, Paleorthid, Paranoid, Pflatau, Philip Trueman, Planders, Plasticup, Pointillist, Ponder, Pruthvi.Vallabh, Pseudo-Richard,
Pullister, Pyrospirit, Qasdzxc, R'n'B, RDBrown, Rami radwan, Raymond arritt, Rd232, Redvers, Rich Farmbrough, Rich257, Richard001, Rjwilmsi, Rrburke, SEWilco, Samsara, Scaife, Scalene,
Schmiteye, Search4Lancer, Shalom Yechiel, Shanel, Shanzu, Shardik, Simplex1swrhs, Sionus, Smalljim, Smkolins, Snailwalker, Squiddy, Srivatsaaithal, Srleffler, Stib, StoptheDatabaseState,
Tamás Kádár, Tartarus, Taw, TeH nOmInAtOr, Templationist, TheKMan, Thingg, Tikachu94, Tmangray, Tommy2010, Tony Sidaway, Tpbradbury, Tpduden, Travelbird, UBeR, User77764,
Viriditas, Vsmith, Wavelength, Wetman, When Muffins Attack, William M. Connolley, Xiutwel, Zenlax, ‫ةيناريد دابع‬, 450 anonymous edits

Global warming potential  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425995071  Contributors: 10.246, 200.191.188.xxx, 203.109.250.xxx, Alan Liefting, Aldaron, Andrewjlockley,
Apyule, Arthur Rubin, Atmoz, Beagel, Bovineone, Brusegadi, Bsimmons666, Conversion script, DabMachine, Debatewise, Dirac66, Ed Poor, Eisnel, Eric Kvaalen, Fillinchen, Footyboy08,
Freestyle-69, Gene Nygaard, Gogo Dodo, Graham87, Guettarda, Guydauncey, Hibernian, Husond, Ilinri, JacobCampbell, Jong-C, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Kittychem, Lie killer, Loonymonkey,
Luokehao, Lurkmolsner, MPF, Mac, Magister Mathematicae, Mahlum, Massew64, Mercy, Mrfebruary, Mwgillenwater, NHSavage, Philip Trueman, Prolog, Random account 47, Rd232,
Rdsmith4, Rich Farmbrough, Richard001, Rjstott, Rod57, SEWilco, Samulili, Securiger, Shalom Yechiel, Shanedidona, Shaunus4, Shiftchange, Stemonitis, Tamás Kádár, TeH nOmInAtOr,
Terjepetersen, Theo Pardilla, Tinndel, Tlroche, Tony Sidaway, UBeR, V8rik, Vhdph, Vicki Rosenzweig, Viriditas, Vsmith, Wasami007, Wavelength, Wdfarmer, William M. Connolley, Wimt,
WojPob, 94 anonymous edits

Greenhouse effect  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=423912871  Contributors: 0XQ, 168..., 21655, 24.4.255.xxx, 2D, 9cds, AAA!, ABF, AHRtbA==, ASarnat, Abeg92,
Abrech, Adam6890, Aditya, Af648, Agge1000, Ahmad87, Ahoerstemeier, Aitias, Akhyansh0008, Alan Liefting, Alan Peakall, Alansohn, Alba, Ale jrb, Aleenf1, AlexD, Alice gomez,
Allenhaohuang, Allstarecho, Alphachimp, Alsandro, Altrax20, Alwatt, Andrewjlockley, AngelOfSadness, Anonymous editor, Antandrus, Anthb, Anthere, Arakunem, Arjun01, Asdk12, Ash1299,
AstroPig7, Ataleh, Atemperman, AtholM, Atmoz, Avono, Awickert, AxelBoldt, Ayelet 1991, AzaToth, B.d.mills, Bachrach44, Backslash Forwardslash, Badgernet, Baqu11, BarretBonden,
Bartimaeus, Bdell555, Belltower, Benbread, Benhocking, Biblbroks, Billiardpro18, Blackcloak, Blake-, Blouis79, BlueAg09, Bmax, Bobblewik, Bobianite, Bobo192, Bogsat, Bolinator,
Bongwarrior, Bowlhover, Bowser, Brian A Schmidt, Brianga, Brougham96, Brusegadi, Bryan Derksen, Burntsauce, C-randles, CAPS LOCK, Caiaffa, Calibas, Caltas, Calvin 1998, Can't sleep,
clown will eat me, CanadianLinuxUser, CapitalR, Capitalistroadster, Capricorn42, Carbuncle, CardinalDan, Casito, Casper2k3, Cdc, Cdorman2, Charcoal44, CharlotteWebb, Chaser, Chicco3,
Chill doubt, Chinfo, Chopbox, Chrisch, ChristianityMeansFreedom, Chriswaterguy, Cielomobile, Climateguru, Closedmouth, Cmc0605, Coffee, Cometstyles, Comlag225, Complex (de),
Computerpencilbook, Conversion script, Cooliodocious, Cortonin, Count Iblis, Craignielsen2000, Crazycomputers, Curt Massie, CurtisSwain, D. F. Schmidt, D0762, DVD R W, Da Joe, Da
monster under your bed, DaBler, Damorbel, Danelo, Daniel Mahu, Dannown, DarK AQ, DarkFalls, Darksider679, Darth Panda, Dawn Bard, Dcoetzee, Debresser, Deconstructhis, Deglr6328,
Delldot, Delta Tango, DennyColt, DerHexer, Dicklyon, Diddims, Disavian, Discospinster, Dixiethemouse, Djmousey, Doug Bell, DougHill, Dragons flight, Dreadstar, Driving and Crying,
Durial321, Durin, Dwc144, Dysepsion, Dyuku, E0steven, EAi, EL Willy, ESkog, EWS23, East718, EastNile, Ed Poor, Edgar181, Edivorce, Eequor, Effectofglobalwarming, Eitheladar, EivindJ,
Ekologkonsult, Eli Rabett, Ellywa, Emilyisaac, Enviroboy, Epbr123, Erebus Morgaine, Eric DUMINIL, Eurosong, Euryalus, Everyking, Evil Monkey, Exander, Excirial, Explicit, Extransit,
Fabiform, Fangel96, Fanghong, Faradayplank, Femto, FetchcommsAWB, Filelakeshoe, Flewis, Fonzy, Footballmvp1994, Frankenpuppy, Fredfredburger411, Friginator, Frymaster, Fyyer, GB
fan, Gaius Cornelius, Ganstaguy6, Gdo01, Gene Nygaard, Geoffrey.landis, Geoski112, Gerben1974, Gh87, Ghettoness 1, Giftlite, Gino Truong, Gjd001, Glenn, Gobonobo, Gogo Dodo, Gorank4,
Graham87, Gralo, Grayshi, Greatal386, Grosscha, Groudan, Ground Zero, Grunt, Gscshoyru, Gtstricky, Guanaco, Guettarda, Gurch, Gurchzilla, Guy M, Gzuckier, Gökhan, Hadal, HaeB, Hans
Erren, Heatherboronski, Heimstern, HenryEdit, Hgrosser, Hirsch.im.wald, HistorianofScience, Hobartimus, HowardSF, Hu12, Husond, Hut 8.5, Hyphen5, I already forgot, II MusLiM HyBRiD
II, IRP, IVAN3MAN, Iapetus, Ice teeth, Iceberg007, Icseaturtles, Imhoturnot, Imthedragn, Incredio, IndulgentReader, Insanity Incarnate, InvisibleChildren, Iridescent, IronGargoyle, Ironholds,
Islander, Ispy1981, It Is Me Here, Ixfd64, J.delanoy, J04, JForget, JLaTondre, JRR Trollkien, JSpung, JaGa, Jackky, James086, Jamesbundu, Jason Patton, JayW, Jbh2wiki, Jcc1, Jebba, Jeendan,
Jeff G., Jennavecia, JeremyA, Jerryseinfeld, Jh51681, Jhalpern, Jimmytod4, Joachim Hansen, JoanneB, Jock Boy, Jockosaurus, JodyB, John Fader, John Vandenberg, Johningleby, JonGwynne,
Article Sources and Contributors 594

Jonathan.s.kt, Jons63, Jorfer, Joseph Solis in Australia, Joseph19033, Joti, Joyous!, Jpat34721, Jpiñacheeto, Jrbouldin, JuJube, Jum561, Junglecat, Jyril, JzG, KVDP, KamStak23, Kanonkas,
Karbinski, Karn, Kat10492, Katieh5584, Katoa, Kazvorpal, Keilana, Kevin, Kharihumura, Killiondude, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Kingpin13, Kiwipeel, Kluft, Kmweber, Kolmandude, Krm500,
Kubigula, Kukini, Kulmiye2nur, Kungming2, La Pianista, Lamentation, Lancevortex, Landon1980, Leafyplant, LeaveSleaves, Lee, Lee Daniel Crocker, Lenthe, Lerdsuwa, Les boys, LiL J,
LightAnkh, Lightmouse, Lights, Lillozb, Lindmere, Linnell, Lir, Llort, Longhair, Lord Voldemort, Lumos3, Luna Santin, Lwaiyipl, MER-C, MONGO, Maclean25, Macy, Madxientist, Maelor,
Magic pumpkin, Mandolinface, Mani1, Manumgnair, Marasmusine, Marc410is, Marco Krohn, Mark Foskey, MarkSutton, Martin451, MartinHarper, Martpol, Masterfeatherpen, Matthew
Woodcraft, Matthew Yeager, MattieTK, Mav, Max Schwarz, MaxPont, Mayumashu, Mbeychok, McDoc, Mendaliv, Mentifisto, Michael Hardy, Michaelbusch, Michaelorgan, Mikiemike,
Minasbeede, Mindcry, Miranda, Misza13, Mjr162006, Moomoomoo, MrFish, Murderbike, Musicuploud, Mustafa a khan, Mutty mutt mutt, Mvjs, Mxn, Myanw, Mygerardromance,
MysteriousGary, NAHID, NHSavage, Naddy, Nagy, Nakon, Natalie Erin, Natasha2006, NathanHurst, NawlinWiki, Nearfar, New Image Uploader 929, Nigelj, Nihiltres, Nils Simon, Niluop,
Nishkid64, Nivix, Nn123645, NoPetrol, Noah Salzman, NormStephens, Nousernamesleft, Nsaa, Nskillen, Nurg, Nuttycoconut, Octernion, Od Mishehu, Odie5533, OffsBlink, OhanaUnited,
Olorin28, Oneroc, Oopaas, Oreiser, Ottoump, OverlordQ, OwenX, Oxymoron83, ParticleMan, Patrick, Pb30, Pearcedh, Persian Poet Gal, Peyna, Pflatau, Pharaoh of the Wizards, Phgao,
PhilMacD, Philip Trueman, Pie Man 360, Pilotguy, Pixel23, Pixelface, Planetary, Playnate2004, Pnkrockr, Polihale, Polluxian, Populus, Possum, Prashanthns, PrestonH, Princessseashell, Prof77,
Professor Chaos, Proofreader77, Q Science, QVanillaQ, QuadrivialMind, Quest for Truth, Quicksandish, Qxz, RB972, RCPayne, RDBrown, RJaguar3, RTSternbough, Radon210, Raj6, Ralf
Schmelter, Random account 47, Randomazn69, Ranveig, Rasmus Faber, Raul654, Ravichandar84, Rawling, Raymond arritt, RazorICE, Rd232, Rdsmith4, Redmond2b, Resistance777, Retiono
Virginian, Rettetast, RexNL, Rich Farmbrough, Richard001, RichardB, RickK, Rickterp, Rjstott, Rjwilmsi, Roadahead, RobertG, RoyBoy, Royboycrashfan, Rracecarr, Rror, Rumping, Russell
Peters, Rutherfordjigsaw, RyanCross, Ryoutou, SEWilco, SJP, SU Linguist, Sam Korn, Sammynight504, Samoojas, Sango123, Sarah.indes, Saterisk, Satori Son, Saxonyking, Sceptre, Schissel,
Schusch, Scientizzle, Scog, Securiger, Seddon, Shanes, Shar9shooter, Sharkface217, Sharonlees, Sheldon Rampton, Shii, Shizane, Short Brigade Harvester Boris, Short Brigade Harvester Boris
(original), SiGarb, Sietse Snel, SimonP, SineWave, Sineofx, Singularity, Sionus, Sjakkalle, Sjrsimac, Skidmark1991, Skizzik, Sln3412, Smalljim, SmartGuy, Snalwibma, Soliloquial, Soosed,
Special-T, Spellcast, Spencer, Sphilbrick, SpuriousQ, Squiddy, Srikeit, StaticGull, Steel, Stephan Schulz, Stephenb, SteveNaive64, StuartH, Superborsuk, Superjustinbros., Supertigerman, Susan
Mason, Synchronism, TFOWR, Tailpig, Tamatisk, Tannin, Tanuki-Dori, Tanvir Ahmmed, Tb, TedE, TediousFellow, Terrek, Terrx, Teryx, Thadius856, The Cunctator, The Missing Hour, The
Mu, The Noosphere, The Thing That Should Not Be, The Ubik, The wub, TheHighTree, Theo Pardilla, Theresa knott, Thingg, Think outside the box, Thoatt, Thomas Woo Woo, Tideflat, Timo
Honkasalo, Tiptoety, Tnayin, Tnxman307, Tom harrison, Tomtheman5, Tony Sidaway, Tony1, ToolmakerSteve, Touisiau, Tpbradbury, TreasuryTag, Tripodics, Trueness, Ttony21, Turlo
Lomon, Twir, Tylergress, U.S.A.U.S.A.U.S.A., UBeR, Ukexpat, Ulric1313, UncleverOnion, Urod, Utcursch, Vanished user 39948282, Vanished user 47736712, VanishedUser314159, Vaughan
Pratt, VegaDark, Versus22, Veteran0101, Vihermarja, Vir, Viridian, Vndragon4, Vsmith, Vuo, Waggers, WarwickAllison, Wavelength, Wayne, WaysToEscape, Wenli, Who, Wiki alf,
Wiki0709, Wikidsoup, WildWildBil, William Avery, William M. Connolley, Wimt, Winans, Winhunter, WinterSpw, Wisco, Wknight94, Woohookitty, Writerguy, X!, Xevi, Xiong Chiamiov,
Y.indika, YUL89YYZ, Yamaguchi先生, Yamamoto Ichiro, YetAnotherBunny, Youandme, Ytrottier, Yurivict, Z.E.R.O., Zacmack93, Zakamoka1, Zalgo, ZazieTheBeast, ZimZalaBim, ZooFari,
Zsinj, Zuff, ಠ ಠ, 2125 anonymous edits

Greenhouse gas  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426879379  Contributors: -Midorihana-, 21655, 2over0, 85xtracab, A Train, A3RO, A8UDI, AP3 10, ARUNKUMAR P.R,
Abcd2357, Abirchow, AcePilot101, Actw, Adsrikanth, Aetheling, Agathman, AgentPeppermint, Aitias, Akaanontyo, Alan Liefting, Alansohn, Ale jrb, Aleenf1, Alessandro57,
Alexandra-McGhie, Alexf, Alister Kinkaid, Altermike, Amberroom, Amcbride, Andreaphill, Andres, Andrewjlockley, AngelOfSadness, Animaly2k2, Animum, AnnuitSophia, Antandrus,
Anthere, Antilived, Antiuser, Antonio Lopez, Anttss24, Apdency, Armored Saint, Arnoldlover, Artymis, Atmoz, AubreyEllenShomo, AuburnPilot, Aude, Autopilot, Avoided, Avrau, Awickert,
AxelBoldt, Ayanoa, B. Wolterding, B4hand, BIL, Baa, Baegis, Bartoron2, Bassbonerocks, Battoe19, Beagel, Beaker342, Beetstra, Beland, Benashton, Bendy660, Bendzh, Benhocking,
Benitocellini, Bfigura's puppy, Bgcopepod, Big Bird, Bistromathic, Blackcloak, Bobby122, Bobo192, Boing! said Zebedee, Bongwarrior, Boothy443, Booyabazooka, Bosniak, Bovineone,
Bowser, BozMo, Braingle, Brendenhull, BrianGV, Bruny Islander, Brusegadi, Bryan Derksen, Bsimmons666, Burntsauce, Bushcutter, CAgrrl, CIreland, CPWinter, Cactus.man, Calvingao,
CambridgeBayWeather, Camw, CanadianLinuxUser, Capitocapito, Capricorn42, Captqrunch, Carl Czerny, Carlosguitar, Cata-girl, Cbustapeck, Chase me ladies, I'm the Cavalry, Chd, Chealer,
Chicco3, Childzy, Chowbok, ChristianAnarchist, ChristianityMeansFreedom, Christina Silverman, Christopher Parham, Ciphergoth, Cireshoe, Ckatz, Ckeiderling, Clamster5, Clicketyclack,
Cmbhome, Coastwise, Cometstyles, CommonsDelinker, Cool3, Coolpk12, Coopercmu, Coro, Corpx, Cortonin, Count Iblis, Crazy Kevin, CrazyChemGuy, Crodoak, Cshalinisharma,
CurtisSwain, Custodiet ipsos custodes, Cvbbn, Cyanos, CyberForte, Cyp, Cyrusc, D, DARTH SIDIOUS 2, DS1953, Da Joe, Da monster under your bed, Dachshund, Dale stone, DanKeshet,
DanielCD, Daniyalw, Darklilac, Darrien, Darth Panda, Davewild, David R. Ingham, Dawnseeker2000, Dbfirs, DeadEyeArrow, Debresser, Deglr6328, Deli nk, Delldot, DerechoReguerraz,
Derumi, Dfrg.msc, Differo, DigitalCatalyst, Diligent Terrier, Dina, Dionisiofranca, DirkvdM, Discospinster, Dlary, Doczilla, DoomsDay349, Dothefandango, Douzzer, Download, Dragons flight,
Drf5n, Drilnoth, Driving and Crying, Dtwilliams14, DubaiTerminator, Dubc0724, Duffman, Duk, Duncan.france, Duncharris, ERhaught, ESkog, EarlKillian, Ecoconservant, Ecoone, Ed Poor,
Edgar181, Edufur, Edward, Ekotekk, Electron9, Elekhh, Eleven even, Ellmist, Emx, Enescot, Enveconmatt, Enviroboy, Epastore, Epbr123, Equendil, Equine-man, Eric-Wester, Erockrph, Escape
Orbit, Esnascosta, Euryalus, Eve Hall, Everyking, Evil saltine, Evolauxia, Exander, Excirial, Ezbreezy08, Fabartus, Fangchen, Fanghong, Fat bicuit, Father McKenzie, Fchristo, Fred Bauder,
Freewikidata, Frymaster, Funnyduds, Fuzheado, Gaius Cornelius, Garrisonroo, Gary King, GcSwRhIc, Gene Nygaard, Genessebro, Geni, Geologyguy, Ggundies, Giftlite, Gilliam, Glare of the
Midnight Sun, Glass Matrim, Glen, Goratchet, Gracenotes, Gralo, GreenSarah, Gregfadein, Gregfitzy, GregorB, Gripper101, Guanaco, Guettarda, Guigui NYC, Gurchzilla, Gökhan, HaeB,
Hakuin, Hancocklucky, Happyfish, Hawaiian717, Hda3ku, Hdt83, Heejung8, Hellobob5000, Hermoine Gingold, Heron, Hesperian, Hiddekel, HighKing, Hmoul, Hobartimus,
Hollysollypollymolly, Hooperbloob, Hu, Hu12, HybridBoy, Hydrargyrum, Hydrogen Iodide, Hyzerflip, I M Right, IRP, IVAN3MAN, IW.HG, Iakobski, Id447, Iddri, Ilovesmiles008,
Iluvluckystar, Immunize, Imnotatmyprivateterminal, ImperatorExercitus, Instinct, Invasion10, Ioverka, Ipatrol, Iridescence, Iridescent, Irishi48, IvanLanin, J.delanoy, JForget, JMK, JRR
Trollkien, JWSchmidt, JaGa, Jacek Kendysz, Jackfork, Jackinthebox666, Jacksatan, Jaganath, Jamesontai, JamousMarc, Jason Patton, Jdaniels2007, Jdtal7570, Jeff G., Jhalpern, Jiiiipo,
Jim.amen, Jimad, Jj137, Jklasdrewuio123, Jlglex, Jmj45, Jocke 337, Joffer, John, Jojhutton, JonGwynne, JonHarder, Jonathan.s.kt, Jonkerz, Jonpro, Jorfer, JorisvS, Joseph Solis in Australia,
Jpoelma13, Jrockley, Jsc83, Jscheng, Junyor, Juracule, Jusdafax, Justin Eiler, K, K50 Dude, KGasso, KLLvr283, KVDP, Kaiserkarl13, Kamikazetackle, Kapitel67, Katalaveno, Katita621,
Keilana, Kelisi, Ketemisis, Kevinp2, Killerman99, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Kjramesh, Kku, Know or don;t, KnowledgeOfSelf, Koavf, Krawi, Kukini, Kuru, L Kensington, LAX, LOL,
LOLamouse, LachlanA, Lahiru k, Landon1980, LeadSongDog, Leafyplant, LeaveSleaves, Leuko, Lights, Little Mountain 5, Lldenke, Llewelyn MT, Looxix, Lsi, Luk, Luna Santin, M00seo00o,
MER-C, MGTom, MONGO, Mac, Mac Davis, Maddox1, Maethordaer, Magioladitis, Mak Thorpe, Mandarax, Mantator, Marcika, Marco Krohn, MarcoTolo, Marek69, Mariordo, MarkSutton,
Martyjmch, Mary quite contrary, Materialscientist, Mathijs Romans, Matt Gies, Matthieu.berthome, Mav, Max Regor, Maxfrisch, Maxim Razin, Maxis ftw, Maxxicum, Mbc362, Mdesafey,
Menwith, Mervin393, Michael H 34, Michael Hardy, Michaelas10, Michał Sobkowski, Mike R, Mikenorton, Minasbeede, Miquonranger03, Mj1231, Mjmcb1, Mkweise, Mohmania,
Monkeymanman, Moreschi, Mossy3000, Mr Burns, Mr man 5225, MrJones, Mrfebruary, Mrwako, Mschel, Mugwumpjism, Muzikae, NCdave, NHSavage, Nancy, NawlinWiki, NeoJustin,
Nepomuk 3, Netalarm, Netkinetic, New Image Uploader 929, NewEnglandYankee, Newtonianwiki, Nick, Nickstuckert, Nigelj, Nikhilmattoo, Nilfanion, Niluop, Nitya Dharma, Nivix, Njoedits,
Nono64, Nopetro, Notedgrant, Nrcprm2026, Numbersinstitute, Nurg, Nuttycoconut, Ohconfucius, Ohms law, Ohnoitsjamie, Okiefromokla (old), Okurniawan, Omicronpersei8, Opelio,
OrangeDog, Orangemarlin, Orangemen19, Oren0, OverlordQ, OwenX, Oxymoron83, Pahgcdt, Parsa, ParticleMan, Patstuart, Paul August, Paxsimius, Pb30, Pcarbonn, Pcgriffith, Pepper,
Peregrine981, Peterlewis, Pflatau, Phanly, Pharaoh of the Wizards, Philip Trueman, Phlyght, Piano non troppo, Pikiwyn, Pinkadelica, Plantsurfer, Plasticup, Player 03, Pleasantville, Politicslvr,
Poopskins69, Portalian, Possum, Pranav.tewari, Prashanthns, Prester John, Princess belinda1994, Prlsmith, Prof77, Prolog, Provman, Psoreilly, Punctilius, PunkYoshi, Pyfan, Pöllö, Q Science,
Qxz, RDBrown, RG104, RIS cody, RONL4950, Radon210, Ralf Schmelter, Random account 47, Raptor235, Raul654, RayMassey, Raymond arritt, Rd232, Rdsmith4, Real World, Refsworldlee,
Rehman, Restepc, Rettetast, RexNL, Rhowes, Rich Farmbrough, Rjwilmsi, Rktect, Roberdin, Robert Jake Wilson, Rock nj, Rod57, Rodmom, Rodtrent, RolfSander, Rtdrury, Rtyq2, Rudjek,
Ryulong, SEWilco, Sadlerjackmn, Salsb, Salvio giuliano, Sandman107, Sbandrews, Sceptre, SchfiftyThree, Scmarney, Seaphoto, SebastianHelm, Securiger, Selmo, Senator Palpatine,
Sennaciulo, Sentience, Seraphim, Sewings, Sharonlees, Shaunus4, Shinkolobwe, Shoeofdeath, Shone69, Short Brigade Harvester Boris, Short Brigade Harvester Boris (original), Showman60,
Sidwarren, Silverback, Simesa, SimonP, Sinn, Sjö, Skater, Sko1221, Slambo, SlayerK, Sleepaholic, Sln3412, Sloe Bloe, Slow entrophyy, Smalljim, Smartse, Smashin sarah, Snigbrook,
Snowmanradio, Snowolf, SpaceFlight89, SpuriousQ, Squiddy, Ssilvers, St.daniel, Stamnon, Steel, Stephen, Stephen B Streater, Sterculius, Steve Quinn, Steven Zhang, Stone, Studentdefender17,
StuffOfInterest, Stwalkerster, Sugaki, Supercow37, Suruena, Switchercat, SydneyB007, Sylent, THEN WHO WAS PHONE?, Tanaats, Tarsie, Tb, TeH nOmInAtOr, TeaDrinker, Tedg332,
Teppicymon, TestPilot, Tgaguy, The Master of Mayhem, The Missing Hour, The Rambling Man, The Thing That Should Not Be, The Ungovernable Force, The machine512, Theanphibian,
Thehelpfulone, Therichdude, Thingg, ThinkGreen, Thoroughfare, Threop, Thumperward, Thunderstix, Tiddly Tom, Tide rolls, Timrem, Tkynerd, Tlroche, Toby Bartels, Toddst1, Tom harrison,
Tomasf, Tommy2010, Tony Sidaway, ToolmakerSteve, Tpbradbury, Travelbird, Treisijs, Trenta, Tresiden, Tristanwiki, Tslocum, Twoe gappes, UBeR, US opinion on global warming,
UWnhungdao, UncleDouggie, Unschool, Username550, Utahraptor1, Utcursch, Valentin Zahrnt, Vanished user 03, Vanished user 39948282, Vanished user 47736712, Vector Potential,
Vercarcan, Veteran0101, Victim of Changes, Victor Engel, Vinny Burgoo, Vivio Testarossa, Voyagerfan5761, Vsmith, Vulgarurbanism, Waggers, Waidawut, Warchaser, WarthogDemon, Watti
Renew, Wavelength, Wdfarmer, Wedjj, WereSpielChequers, West Brom 4ever, What do i want to..., WhiteDragon, Wi-king, Wikidudeman, Wikipe-tan, Wikipelli, William M. Connolley, Wimt,
WookieInHeat, Wysprgr2005, X!, Xdenizen, Xinit, Yaki-gaijin, Yaksar, Yamaguchi先生, Yamamoto Ichiro, Yanksrock777, Youandme, Ytrottier, Zaky123, Zinjixmaggir, ZooFari, ဇာမဏီ, 1600
anonymous edits

Land use, land-use change and forestry  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=367441107  Contributors: Alan Liefting, Arthur Rubin, Calltech, Chrishenschel, Colincbn,
Fredwerner, Garion96, Gueneverey, Jamesofengland, Jensbn, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Mac, Mahlum, Menwith, Mrfebruary, Namazu-tron, Nancy, Ouedbirdwatcher, Paddles, Veganman, Vinny
Burgoo, 10 anonymous edits

Radiative forcing  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=422153693  Contributors: Amikake3, Atmoz, C-randles, CPWinter, Cameta, Char Truth, Chicco3, Dragons flight, Ed Poor,
Enescot, Fabiform, Fangz, Fram, Friendly Neighbour, Gabriel Kielland, George2wiki, Gobonobo, Gralo, HistorianofScience, I love SUV's, Icairns, Iceage77, Id447, Ilinri, Incredio, Inquisitus,
Iridescent, Jason Patton, Jbergquist, Jmeppley, Jorfer, Jrbouldin, Keenan Pepper, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Lradrama, Mac, Mahlum, Meaghan, Menwith, Michael Hardy, MikeWren, Mishlai,
NJGW, Nivix, Nrcprm2026, Onceler, Pflatau, Pgan002, Q Science, Raymond arritt, Rd232, Rich Farmbrough, Rozeng1122, Rvcx, SEWilco, Siebren, Simetrical, Sln3412, Stevemidgley,
Steveysteve, Teratornis, Thompsma, Tlroche, Wavelength, Wikidsoup, William M. Connolley, Zinjixmaggir, Δ, 76 anonymous edits

Urban heat island  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425587209  Contributors: 4Russeteer, Adacore, Adi, Admrboltz, After Midnight, Agentbla, Aitias, Alai, Alansohn, AlfBit,
Amending, Anna Lincoln, Antandrus, Argus fin, Arthur Rubin, Arthur j fitzgibbons, Atmoz, Awickert, BD2412, Berkut, Betterusername, Bloodshedder, BrettAllen, Brian Everlasting,
Article Sources and Contributors 595

BrotherFlounder, Brusegadi, Calltech, Ceranthor, Chiel, Cla68, Comet Tuttle, CommonsDelinker, Constructedclimates, Conversion script, Cortonin, Coryjp, Courcelles, Cyan, D6, DLH,
DabMachine, Dan Hunton, Dark Serge, David Streutker, David Woodward, Dbenbenn, Dellium, Dralwik, Drstuey, EagleFan, Ed Poor, Eenu, Evolauxia, Falstart, Favonian, FeloniousMonk,
Fourthords, Fox, Francl, Franzeska, Fui in terra aliena, Gaius Cornelius, Geoff Kohne, GerardK, GerardM, Graft, Graham87, Ground Zero, Guettarda, Hersfold, Iceberg007, Iceblock, Igoldste,
Immunize, Incnis Mrsi, Intershark, Iridescent, Isnow, J04n, James Kidd, Jbergerot, Jimbo Wales, Jimjarvis, Joaquin008, Jorfer, Joyous!, Julesd, Katbun, Katietara, KimDabelsteinPetersen,
Knuckles, Koavf, KonaScout, Koskim, Lansey, Lightmouse, Ligulem, Loudes13, Lumidek, MartinHarper, McCart42, Menwith, Mgdugan, Mindbuilder, Mintleaf, Mishlai, MrOllie, Mullibok,
NJGW, Narayanese, Nikpapag, Nils Simon, Nixeagle, Nsaa, Nurg, Omegatron, Orphan Wiki, Pak21, PatronSaintOfEntropy, Paul Matthews, Peter567, Pflatau, Phil Boswell, Philip Trueman,
Pigman, Punishinglemur, Pyrotec, Qe2eqe, RUClimate, Random account 47, Raymond arritt, Rd232, Rednblu, Rich Farmbrough, Rich257, Rjwilmsi, RoyBoy, Rrburke, Ryanjo, SEWilco,
Sagredo, Securiger, Shadowjams, Shanes, Shawine, Shirulashem, Short Brigade Harvester Boris, Simogasp, Sjorford, Soup on the rocks, SpLoT, Squiddy, Ssilvers, Stemonitis, Stephan Schulz,
Stuart mcmillen, SunSw0rd, TMLutas, Tahir Ahmed Qureshi, Tardis, Tarquin, TeH nOmInAtOr, That Guy, From That Show!, The machine512, Theblog, Thegoodlocust, Thegreatdr, Tillman,
Uncle Dick, Velvetron, Voyagerfan5761, Vsmith, Wavelength, Weatherextremes, Whitenob, William M. Connolley, WoodenTaco, Woudloper, Yonkervillager, Zeimusu, Zeke Hausfather,
ZeroRPM, 199 anonymous edits

Albedo  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425467658  Contributors: 155.42.27.xxx, Adoniscik, Alaymehta, Albany45, Alexander Iwaschkin, Alexcua, Alfio, All Is One,
Ama96, Amire80, Anatoly IVANOV, Ancheta Wis, Andres, Andrewjlockley, Andycjp, Angela, Antandrus, Archivist, Arvindn, Astrobiologist, Awickert, Babij, Ben-Zin, Bender235,
Bobdobbs1723, Bovineone, Boyer the destroyer, Brim, Brion VIBBER, Bryan Derksen, CanadianLinuxUser, Catgut, Ceyockey, Charles Matthews, Chesleyadams, Chesnok, Chuck Carroll,
Chupon, Closedmouth, Colapeninsula, Conversion script, Cyp, Dan Pangburn, David Kernow, Dcoetzee, Ddunkman, Deditos, Deuar, Discospinster, Doc Tropics, Docu, Dr. Submillimeter,
Dracontes, Dragons flight, DuKot, Ed Poor, Ed g2s, Edward, Epastore, Ewlyahoocom, Finlay McWalter, Finn-Zoltan, Firstmatekevin, Flatline, Franjosp, Fred Bauder, Friendly Neighbour, Gaius
Cornelius, Gene Nygaard, Geneb1955, GianniG46, Giftlite, Giorgiogp2, Git2010, Gman124, Goblue16, Golbez, Gombang, GrandRadChris, Hans Dunkelberg, Harlanjohnson, Harperdog,
Headbomb, Hephaestos, Hgrobe, Hibernian, Hotshot090, Ideyal, Illexsquid, Immora, Iustinus, Ivan Shmakov, Ixfd64, JTM815, Jameschipmunk, Java7837, Jeff G., Jimp, JohnOwens, Johnconant,
Jorfer, Joseaperez, Jovianeye, Jpk, Jrthorpe, Jtsch, Jusdafax, Kainaw, Karol Langner, Katydidit, Kbrose, Kelly Martin, Kgrr, Kheider, Kizor, Kjkolb, Klodolph, Knakts, Kur0, Larry laptop,
Laurusnobilis, Lesikar, Lethe, Leyo, LilHelpa, Lir, Looxix, MPF, MZMcBride, Magioladitis, MapsMan, Mariushm, Mark, Mark1962, Megan.rw1, Menwith, Mike Rosoft, Mike s, Misza13,
Momet, Morpheios Melas, NHSavage, Najro, Narasimhavarman10, Nbarth, Nickj, Obradovic Goran, OhanaUnited, Ojcit, Palica, Patrick, Pedro, Pflatau, PhilMacD, Piledhigheranddeeper,
Pinethicket, Pizza Puzzle, Pizza1512, Plewis, PrestonH, Prolog, Q Science, RJASE1, RJHall, Random account 47, Renaissancee, Riana, Rich Farmbrough, Rjwilmsi, Romanskolduns, Rubicon,
STEV56, Samboy, Satori, Scientizzle, Shadowjams, Shahryaar, SimonP, Singularitarian, Skapur, Sligocki, Soap, Soler97, Something14, Srleffler, Sumo su, Superm401, Suto, Swatjester, Tanzz,
Teutongov, That Guy, From That Show!, Thejackhmr, Thelb4, Thepisky, Thue, Tim Shell, Tim Starling, Tony Sidaway, Toyoso, Tracerbullet11, Treekids, Vaughan Pratt, Vishahu, Vitaleyes,
Vsmith, Wachacups, Wavelength, Wereon, White seal, Whosasking, Wideeyedraven, Wikipelli, William M. Connolley, Wizard191, Xanzzibar, Zinjixmaggir, Znx, Александър, 239 anonymous
edits

Bond event  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=424434514  Contributors: Bender235, Chase me ladies, I'm the Cavalry, Cincydude55, Eassin, Gabriel Kielland, GregorB, HiEv,
Hibernian, Hughcharlesparker, Iceberg007, John D. Croft, Joseph Solis in Australia, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Kyng, Laudak, Michael Hardy, OverlordQ, Phirosiberia, Ranma9617, RingtailedFox,
Rjwilmsi, Smith609, Ugajin, William M. Connolley, Ymom2, 10 anonymous edits

Glacial period  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425584838  Contributors: A520, Acroterion, Al Lemos, Bender235, Chris Light, Christian75, Damirgraffiti, Dentren,
Frogs101, Gob Lofa, Grice, Gtonnesen, Kasper2006, Max Naylor, Mervyn, Paul H., Pedros.lol, Peecee1978, PrBeacon, RDBrown, RingtailedFox, Rjwilmsi, Royalbroil, Tom Meijer,
Tranletuhan, UBeR, Vsmith, Wenkbrauwalbatros, William M. Connolley, 14 anonymous edits

Global cooling  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425986407  Contributors: 16@r, 2over0, 4twenty42o, A8UDI, Abrech, Aitias, Akamad, Al.locke, AlexLibman,
Alexsanderxm, AlfBit, AnAbsolutelyOriginalUsername42, Anastrophe, AndrewHowse, Andrewjlockley, Andrewlp1991, Andros 1337, Anirvan, Aremith, Aristotle1990, Arthur Rubin, Ashanda,
Ashmoo, Assbackward, Atbackus, Atmoz, Aunt Entropy, Autopilot, Awesome09, Awickert, AzaToth, BD2412, Ball&Konb, Balloon Boyz, Beelzebubbles101, Beland, BenNally, Bender235,
Benson Danneskjold, Bertport, Beyazid, Birdbrainscan, Black Eagle, Blathnaid, Bobo192, Boffob, Bosonic Fermion, Breedimm, Brian A Schmidt, Brusegadi, Bryan Derksen, Bytemaster,
CO2-Lord Of Creation, CWii, CapitalR, Case2020, Cburnett, Ched Davis, Chibamike, Chicco3, Childhoodsend, Chrislk02, Cityjohn, Cjnankervis999, Cleveland Washington, Click23, Cortonin,
Courcelles, Crohnie, Crust, CurtisSwain, DHeyward, DRTllbrg, Damian Yerrick, Danfune, Daniel Case, Daniel J. Leivick, Danlgus, Darktruth2, Dave souza, Debresser, Delta x, Denni,
DerHexer, Deuxhero, Diabloman, DiamondGeezer, Dilaudid, DirkvdM, DocHolliday, Dubc0724, Dudegalea, Dysepsion, Ed Poor, Edward, Epbr123, Escape Orbit, Esperant, Evans1982,
Evolauxia, F-451, Ferrierd, Findish, Flatgrabbe, Fraggle81, Fredrik, Freemarket, Fungible, G.-M. Cupertino, Gabbe, Gaius Cornelius, Gene Nygaard, Geoff Kohne, GeorgPl, Giftlite, GoRight,
Gpp111, Grundle2600, Gscshoyru, Guettarda, Gurch, Gzornenplatz, HJ Mitchell, Hailtomaximus, HalfShadow, HamburgerRadio, HartzR, Herunar, Hutenova, Hydrogen Iodide, Iambatman123,
Ice teeth, Iceage77, Institut fur Klimatologie, Jamilsoni, Java7837, Jayson Virissimo, Jebba, Jeff G., Jeff Silvers, Jer10 95, Jessco, JessicaJames777, Jmnbatista, Joe2008, John, John Fleck, John
Hyams, John1980, Jokermrsmith, JonGwynne, Jonathan Hall, Jorfer, Joseph Solis in Australia, JoshuaZ, Judaspriestrulz, Jules Wentworth, Junkwiki, Jurros, Jusdafax, Jwagnon, K, Kashi,
Kbdank71, KenFehling, Kevin Cowtan, KillerChihuahua, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Knowledgebycoop, Koavf, Kprather, La goutte de pluie, Lady Aleena, Lauof Pinch, Lennish, Lenoxus, Leteshi,
Lightmouse, Lights, Lucian Sunday, Luckas Blade, MER-C, MPF, Machrisr, Marek69, Master Phil, Matsilisa, Memoney, Menwith, Merzbow, Metamagician3000, Michael Hardy, Michael
Johnson, Mikaey, Mike's Nature Trick, Mikepanhu, Mr Stephen, Mr mtn biker, Mrdarklight, MrfulltimeUCstudent, Mrrigtiousthegoodstuff, Mrundenaiableygreat, Msheliga, Mulp, NHSavage,
Nandesuka, Narssarssuaq, NawlinWiki, Nazmul99all, Nethgirb, New4321, New4325, Nihiltres, Noah Salzman, Noeticsage, OGGVOB, OllieFury, Paul Mykolajtchuk, PeppeL, Petechipperson,
Pevernagie, Pflatau, Philcha, Piano non troppo, Plasticup, Polluxian, Preisendanz, Prodego, Prolog, Pseudo-Richard, Pyth007, QuackGuru, RAYBAN, RBPierce, RDBrown, Raul654, RayTomes,
Raymond arritt, Razorflame, Rd232, Rendahl, Reston Weeks, RexNL, Rich Farmbrough, Richard001, Rick Norwood, Rickterp, Rickyrab, Rjwilmsi, Roadcreature, Robert Pastelli, Robma,
RossPatterson, Rotten, Rsemrau, Rvz22, Ryan Postlethwaite, Ryan vicks, RyanCross, SEWilco, Saforrest, Sailsbystars, Sam Hocevar, Samuel Rockwell, Satori Son, SchuminWeb, Seldumonde,
Sexychick1234567890, Shawine, Sheldon Rampton, Short Brigade Harvester Boris, Skyemoor, Slovakia, Smptq, SouthBeat, Spiffy sperry, Spitfire, Splette, Squiddy, Srmatte, St.daniel,
Starviking, Stephan Schulz, Stern Warning, Stlbrowns1, Stoneymatt, Stootks, Stopg0, StoptheDatabaseState, Stullen, SummerPhD, SunSw0rd, TMLutas, Tasty monster, Technopat, Teemu
Ruskeepää, Tencious9, The Cunctator, The Master of Mayhem, The Person Who Is Strange, The Squicks, TheBigNanook, TheSuave, Thehead 999, Theowannabe, Thomas888b, ThreepwoodQ,
Tide rolls, Timc, Timdaw, Tiyoringo, Tjic, Tony Sidaway, Toyoso, Tpduden, Tubbyspencer, Tzepish, UBeR, Uncle Milty, Unilli, Useight, Username92, Vextration, Viriditas, Vjlenin,
VsevolodKrolikov, Vsmith, Wacki, Wavelength, Wcalvin, Weregerbil, Wik, WikiDao, WikipedianYknOK, Wikiuser953, William M. Connolley, Wljohnson1, XP1, Xborder14x, Xiutwel, Xous,
Yidisheryid, Yuriybrisk, Z.E.R.O., ZX81, ZakuSage, Zephyrad, Zzuuzz, 570 anonymous edits

Atlantic multidecadal oscillation  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=420909441  Contributors: Atmoz, Awickert, Beland, Bender235, Bobrayner, Chris is me, Chris the speller,
Coastalcatwatch, Denfield, Dicklyon, Dylan620, Epipelagic, Eric Kvaalen, Father Goose, Gigs, Hurricanehink, IRelayer, Jaganath, JamieS93, Jdorje, La Pianista, Marcika, Nilfanion,
Northumbrian, Nv8200p, Plasticup, Remember the dot, Rjwilmsi, Rod57, Roland2, Short Brigade Harvester Boris, Spiggot, Ssilvers, Stephan Schulz, Thunderbird2, Tyfynain, William M.
Connolley, 49 anonymous edits

El Niño-Southern Oscillation  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425009560  Contributors: -Majestic-, 25or6to4, 9014user, Aardvark92, Aaron alan ross, Abhijitsathe,
Aboctok, Aboutmovies, Absolutely Curtains, Acroterion, Adamsrock, Aesopos, AgentPeppermint, Ahoerstemeier, AjaxSmack, AlTr00504, Alan Liefting, Alansohn, Alcuin, Ale And Quail,
AlexD, Alexf, Algebra, Algri, AliveFreeHappy, AlmostCrimes, Alokprasad84, Alphachimp, Andre Engels, Andres, Andrewjlockley, Anlace, Anna Lincoln, Anonymous Dissident, Anovstrup,
Antandrus, Antiuser, Arctic Night, ArielGold, Arnon Chaffin, Arthur Rubin, Ashenai, AssassinDrake, AssegaiAli, AstroHurricane001, Atmoz, Avoided, Axolotl123, AySz88, Ayacop,
Babakathy, Bdelisle, Ben waballs, Ben-Zin, Bender235, BiggKwell, BitterMan, Black Kite, BlankVerse, Blueshifter, Bobblewik, Boe77, Bogey97, Borincano75, Boulaur, Briaboru, BrianGV,
Brusegadi, Buck Mulligan, Burntsauce, Béka, C-randles, CJS102793, Caiaphasthesympathist, Calamitybrook, Caltas, Can't sleep, clown will eat me, Cantiorix, Cantus, CardinalDan, Carey
Evans, Cassowary, Cathiikooo, Ccrazymann, Cessator, Cgerbing, Chemicalinterest, Chriskid123, Christinebenson58, Chun-hian, Citizen Premier, Clarince63, Coemgenus, Conversion script,
Crabula, Creatorlarryli, Cripipper, Csrmen2002, CurtisSwain, Cynical, D4g0thur, DAK4Blizzard, DARTH SIDIOUS 2, Da Joe, Dabomb691, DanMS, Dana boomer, Danger, Danny252,
Danski14, Daryllalvero, David Edgar, Dcooper, Ddama, Dekimasu, Denni, Digitalme, Discospinster, Dlazier, DmitryKo, Dndnerd, Dogsa, Dr.Stiles, Drbreznjev, Dreg743, Duk, Duncan.france,
Dwayne, E Pluribus Anthony, EWS23, Eagleal, Ebnat1, Ed Fitzgerald, Ed Poor, Edsanville, Egmontaz, Ekko, El Suizo, ElationAviation, EncMstr, Enviroboy, Epipelagic, Erget2005, Eric smyth
fo show, Eric119, Esprqii, Ettrig, Excirial, Falcon8765, Fastilysock, Father Goose, FayssalF, FelineAvenger, Fibonacci, Fireaxe888, Firsfron, FlavrSavr, Fluffernutter, Fmorel90, Foobaz, Frank
MacCrory, Freakofnurture, Friendly Neighbour, Furrykef, Gabbe, Gaius Cornelius, Gerardhelenaway, Ghostreveries, Gilliam, Gimboid13, Giorgiogp2, Gjmulder, Glenn, Gnowor, Gogo Dodo,
Gonzonoir, Grahamec, Grant76, Greatigers, Greenman, Gscshoyru, Guernz, Guoguo12, Gurchzilla, Guy Harris, Gxojo, Gzhao91, Haein45, Haham hanuka, Hairy Dude, Hajatvrc, Hamiltonstone,
Hans Dunkelberg, Hkchan123, Holmwood, Hookdillon13, Howcheng, Hrf, Hudenu1, Ianblair23, Iceberg007, Indiealtphreak, Insanity Incarnate, Instence, InvertRect, Iridescence, Itsfullofstars,
IvanLanin, Ivansanchez, Ixfd64, J-stinkbomb, J.delanoy, JForget, JIP, JRR Trollkien, JSupple, Ja 62, Jameslooseley, Jdorje, Jedi94, JeopardyTempest, Jeremy Visser, Jespinos, Jfruh, JinJian,
Jmlk17, JoanneB, John Fleck, John Vandenberg, Johnburnett, Johncena72, Jomagalvez, Jonathan.s.kt, Jonathunder, Jordon Kalilich, Jorfer, Josh Parris, Jrockley, Jsnyder, JuJube, Julesd,
Juliancolton, Jusdafax, Kasper Gutman, Kaszeta, Keesiewonder, Kellerkind, Kembangraps, Kent Wang, Kevin Rector, Kewp, Khunglongcon, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Kimiko, Kkailas,
Kkvh4935, Kr0n05931, Krich, Ks0stm, L Kensington, LOL, Lafrontera, Lamp301, LanceBarber, Lee, Lemonflash, Leofriends, Lessthanthree, Lethalraptor, Leyo, Liftarn, Lightmouse, Linear
Recording, LittleDan, Loco830, Logan, LordJumper, Lost tourist, Lou1986, Lova Falk, Luna Santin, Luokehao, Lyricmac, MECU, Maddox1, Madsdagirl, Mahanga, Malkinann, Man vyi,
Manway, MaratIk, Marek69, MarsRover, Marx Gomes, Mauler90, Mausy5043, Mav, Mayooranathan, Mbl111, Menchi, Mentifisto, Mets501, Miden, MikeD32123, Minesweeper, Minimac,
Mintleaf, Miranda, Miss Madeline, MissEzri, Misza13, Mmcannis, Monikaveronika, Montrealais, Mover85, Mr porcupine, Mushin, Muthaismfaud, Mwtoews, NHRHS2010, NRT DestructoR,
Nakon, Nalampus, Natalie Erin, NawlinWiki, Nbumbic, Netoholic, Nicenikes, Nick, Nikpapag, Nivix, Nns, NorwegianBlue, Notary137, Novalis, Nsaa, Nscheffey, NuclearWarfare, O.Helm,
Odie5533, Oldag07, Orphan Wiki, Otisjimmy1, Ouzo, PAR, Pak21, Paul Murray, PearlBeatz, Peregrine981, Peter Ellis, Petrb, Pflatau, Philip Trueman, Piperh, Pjrich, Pne, Psy guy, Pwnermay,
Qwe, R'n'B, RA0808, RDBrown, RJBurkhart, RUClimate, RadicalBender, RadioKirk, Ratiocinate, Raymond arritt, Reach Out to the Truth, Rettetast, RexNL, Reywas92, Riana, Rich
Farmbrough, Rikozarzour, Risingcanary, Rjwilmsi, RobertG, Robogun, Rocketman116, Roland Longbow, Roland2, Ronhjones, Rosameliamartinez, Rosenknospe, RoyBoy, Rracecarr,
Article Sources and Contributors 596

Runningfridgesrule, Russell E, Rvanschaik, Rwst, Ryulong, S7evyn, SEWilco, SFGiants, SMcCandlish, Sakshamagarwals, Sanjmegla, Saperaud, Savidan, Savolion, ScAvenger lv, SchfiftyThree,
Scoutersig, Seqy, Shadowjams, Shipmaster, Short Brigade Harvester Boris, Simplex1swrhs, Sintaku, Sirtrebuchet, Sk8tr9956, Skizzik, Sklee621, SlubGlub, Smack, Smeira, Smith609,
Snoozer347, So God created Manchester, Sobjornstad, Someguy1221, Sopoforic, SpLoT, SpuriousQ, SqueakBox, Squiddy, Srbauer, Srossien, Stephan Schulz, Stephenchou0722, Strategist333,
Sverdrup, Svick, Swid, TKO 23, TSO1D, Tabletop, Tache, Tamfang, Tannin, Tanvir Ahmmed, Tasty monster, Taxman, TeaDrinker, Thatguyflint, The Giant Puffin, The Thing That Should Not
Be, TheGuyInTheIronMask, TheKMan, TheProject, TheRingess, Thefixed, Thegreatdr, Themightyquill, Thomas27, ThorX13, Thryduulf, Tide rolls, Timwi, Titoxd, Tlroche, Tmangray,
Tobby72, Tommy2010, Tony Sidaway, Trainspotter, Trec'hlid mitonet, Tsemii, Tsogo3, Turbulenz, Turgan, UkPaolo, Unyounyo, Urania3, User2010II, Utcursch, Valley2city, VaneWimsey,
Vanished 6551232, Vansara, Verrai, Victor Engel, Violetriga, Viridae, Vivenot, Vrenator, Vsmith, Wackylama, Wavelength, Wayne Slam, Wetman, Whosasking, Wiki alf, Wiki.isya, Wikitanvir,
Willhsmit, William M. Connolley, Willking1979, Wine Guy, Woer$, Wtmitchell, X96D74828, YS Wong, Yabti, Yamamoto Ichiro, Yekrats, Yerpo, Zinjixmaggir, Περίεργος, Александър, 1098
anonymous edits

Indian Ocean Dipole  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=424924846  Contributors: AstroHurricane001, Astrometrics, Atmoz, Bender235, Cgerbing, Christian b219,
Cyberocean, Epipelagic, Friendly Neighbour, Greedyhalibut, Heron, Rjwilmsi, Trex21, Ugajin, WLRoss, 21 anonymous edits

Pacific decadal oscillation  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=427068825  Contributors: Anticipation of a New Lover's Arrival, The, Atmoz, Bender235, Copeland.James.H,
DLH, Epipelagic, Fishiam, Fleminra, Gaius Cornelius, Giorgiogp2, Grutness, Hu, Icairns, Itriel, Jch41878, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Koavf, LilHelpa, Mwtoews, Nick Dillinger, Oashi, Paul
August, Pfly, Raymond arritt, Rjwilmsi, SEWilco, That Guy, From That Show!, Tide rolls, TravelerDiogenes, Weregerbil, William M. Connolley, 44 anonymous edits

Milankovitch cycles  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425330013  Contributors: AVM, Abmcdonald, Ahoerstemeier, Akradecki, Alexander.stohr, Alexjohnc3, AstroWiki,
Atmoz, Atosecond, AussieBoy, Awickert, Bender235, Bj norge, Bobblehead, BozMo, Btyner, CMG, Can't sleep, clown will eat me, Canjth, Catdog181, Cdrigby, Cesiumfrog, Charles Matthews,
Ckatz, Climateguru, Colonies Chris, ConfuciusOrnis, CopperKettle, Cp111, Curps, DHeyward, Darkolaird, David Moe, Dragons flight, Dysmorodrepanis, Editor993, Emijrp, Eric Shalov,
Etacar11, Eve Hall, Everyking, Ewlyahoocom, Farseer, FlagrantUsername, FraKa, Friendly Neighbour, Gbirley, Geek12597, Gene s, Glenn, GregBenson, HJJHolm, Heron, Hgilbert,
IanAnonymous, IanOfNorwich, Incredio, JEBrown87544, JForget, Jackfork, Jaganath, Jalwikip, Jbergquist, JimR, Joe Kress, John Abbe, John Palkovic, John Quiggin, John Riemann Soong,
Jorfer, Joseph Solis in Australia, Jujutacular, Julesd, Jyril, KimDabelsteinPetersen, LCE1506, Lambiam, Lamro, LedgendGamer, Literacola, Lumidek, Lvzon, Marek69, Markls8, Massimiliano
Lincetto, Matt Borak, Meanos, Memetics, Michael Hardy, Michaelbarreto, Michur, MigueldelosSantos, Mozzerati, Myleslong, Mysid, Mårten Berglund, Natanaelr, Nikmix, Novangelis,
Nrcprm2026, Obradovic Goran, Octopus-Hands, Ohms law, Orbitalforam, Pauli133, Pfvlloyd, Pgossens, Plrk, Prester John, Pro crast in a tor, Quaoar, Quidproquo2004, RDBrown, RG2, Random
account 47, RayTomes, RingtailedFox, Rjwilmsi, RobertM525, Rorro, Rrburke, Rtdrury, Ruud Koot, Rāmā, SAE1962, SEWilco, Safalra, Saintonge235, SalvNaut, Saperaud, Shanes, ShoWPiece,
Smilesfozwood, Smith609, Sophie, Steve98052, SunSw0rd, Susan1000, Tamfang, Tcwilliams, Terjepetersen, Thaimoss, That Guy, From That Show!, The Thing That Should Not Be, The way,
the truth, and the light, Thesevenseas, Thorwald, Topsydog, Try0yrt, Twang, Ugajin, Unholy.Asmodeus, Velvetron, Vinay Jha, Vsmith, Vuong Ngan Ha, WVhybrid, Wavelength, Wik, William
M. Connolley, Wilson44691, Woohookitty, Worldrimroamer, Yamara, Yoshirocks8, Zandperl, Zarateman, Zbayz, 209 anonymous edits

Orbital forcing  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=411830970  Contributors: Atmoz, Autopilot, Bender235, Curps, DerBorg, Dietcokedick, Dragons flight, Ed Poor, Frehley,
Gaius Cornelius, GregBenson, JoaoRicardo, Julesd, Lvzon, McFudd, Mikenorton, Mporter, Paul H., Pgan002, Random account 47, RobertM525, Smith609, Supasheep, The way, the truth, and
the light, Therealhazel, Thomas Palm, Vsmith, Who, William M. Connolley, Yellowdesk, 10 anonymous edits

Solar variation  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425688879  Contributors: Acdacey, Africangenesis, Alienus, Andonic, Atmoz, Awickert, Beaber, Beland, Bender235,
Bináris, Bjp716, Bobblewik, Borgx, Brendan62442, Bryan Derksen, CJLL Wright, CSWarren, Calvin 1998, Can't sleep, clown will eat me, Carolmooredc, Childhoodsend, Cla68, Cmapm,
Connection, Cortonin, Count Iblis, CurtisSwain, Da monster under your bed, Dadude3320, Dan aka jack, Dana boomer, Dayewalker, Dikstr, Dragons flight, Dysmorodrepanis, Ed Poor, El C,
Enochlau, Eruantalon, Escobosaf, Exodio, Exp3.14, Extramural, Feydey, Francis Schonken, Fredhutter, Gaius Cornelius, GoatGuy, Gobonobo, Grammaticus, Gregfreemyer, GregorB, Gringo.ch,
Gzornenplatz, HJJHolm, Headbomb, Hertz1888, Iceberg007, Icseaturtles, ImperfectlyInformed, Isentropiclift, Itriel, Itsmejudith, Ixfd64, JShultz, JTN, Jlhcpa, John, John G. Miles, Jorfer, K,
Kane5187, Kbdank71, Keenan Pepper, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Kohlrabi, Leland McInnes, Ligulem, Limideen, Lumidek, MRadecki, Magnus Manske, Man with two legs, Matthurricane,
Menwith, Michael Hardy, Michaelbusch, Mindstalk, Mozzerati, Mystictim, N.Nahber, NHSavage, Obersachse, Oren0, OverlordQ, Paul Matthews, Penlalapala, Peripitus, Pffa4, Pflatau, Pgan002,
Philip Trueman, Plumbago, Pol098, Polihale, Poodleboy, Prashanthns, Quantumobserver, RDBrown, RJHall, Random account 47, RayTomes, Raymond arritt, Rd232, Rebecca, Rei, Rich
Farmbrough, Rich257, Rjwilmsi, RonCram, Rosiestep, Ruud Koot, SEWilco, Sam Hocevar, Saperaud, Sardanaphalus, Sbandrews, SchfiftyThree, Securiger, Shell Kinney, Shinkolobwe, Short
Brigade Harvester Boris, Silverback, Skierpage, Stephan Schulz, Stephenb, Stone, SunSw0rd, Terraflorin, That Guy, From That Show!, ThinThigh30, Thincat, Timl2k4, Tonderai, Tony Sidaway,
Totally screwed, Tullie, Twanderson, UBeR, Vladimir Ivanov, Vsmith, Wavelength, Wendell, Whosasking, Wikianon, Wikilagata, William M. Connolley, Wolfe604, Wwoods, YAGIRLSDNB,
Your mom 31, Zanze123, Zephyrnthesky, ZuluPapa5, 凌雲, 159 anonymous edits

Volcano  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425699943  Contributors: 0, 007jam69, 10CP1995, 169.233.33.xxx, 2772Rev, 7, 95j, A Karley, A bit iffy, A mongoose man 2, AI,
ARC Gritt, AUSTINboston1, Aaron Schulz, Aaronbrick, Abc30, Abc518, Abce2, Abi79, Academic Challenger, Acalamari, Acroterion, Adam Bishop, Adam78, AdamRetchless, AdamantlyMike,
Adamschneider, Adashiel, Addshore, AdjustShift, Ahoerstemeier, Aile Striker, Aitias, Ajcounter, AjitPD, Ajn91, Akuru, Alan Millar, Alansohn, Alantex, Alasdair, Aldie, Alex.g,
AlexiusHoratius, Alhutch, Ali, Ali'i, Alkivar, Allstarecho, Alphax, Altenmann, Amandacthomas53515, Amazonien, Anaxial, Ancheta Wis, Anclation, Andonic, Andres, Andrew c,
Andreworkney, Andrewpmk, Andrewrost3241981, AndyBQ, Anetode, Angela, Angr, Animum, Anna512, Anonymous editor, Antandrus, Anthony Appleyard, Aoi, Aquarius Rising, Arakunem,
Archaen sax, ArgentTurquoise, Arjun01, Arjuno3, Art LaPella, Aspern, Astral, Astro.scope, Atlant, AubreyEllenShomo, Autopilot, Avatars10, Avb, Avenue, Avicennasis, Avono, Awickert,
AzaToth, Azonejam, Babajobu, Bachrach44, Banes, BanyanTree, BaronLarf, Bart133, Bassbonerocks, Batherst16, Bbatsell, Bcorr, Bdelisle, Beardo, Beeltrystig, Beland, Ben Webber,
BeneharoMencey, Bentley4, Bevo, Bibliomaniac15, Bigmack281, Binker123, Bjwebb, Bkk59678, Blacksmith, Bleubleu, Blobbyb, BloodDoll, Blooddune11, BlueAmethyst, BlueEarth,
Boatteeth, Bobbbyjim, Bobo192, Bobrayner, Bomac, Bongwarrior, Bordellcantride, Bornhj, Brews ohare, Brian0918, Brianga, Brianlucas, Briarfallen, Brighterorange, Brisvegas, Briséis,
BrokenSegue, Bryan Derksen, Bucketsofg, Burntsauce, Bushcarrot, C'est moi, CFLeon, CWY2190, CWii, Cactus.man, Cacycle, Calliopejen1, Callmarcus, Caltas, CalumH93, Calviii,
CambridgeBayWeather, Cameron Dewe, Camw, Can't sleep, clown will eat me, Canadian-Bacon, CanadianCaesar, Canjth, Canned Soul, CapitalR, Carboxen, Carcharoth, CardinalDan,
CaribDigita, Cassowary, Caulde, Celestianpower, Cenarium, Cflm001, Cgingold, ChadyWady, Chaiten1, Chcknwnm, Cheesemann, Cheesesy, Chem-awb, ChessMan007, Chill doubt, Chillum,
Cholmes75, Chris 73, Chris the speller, Chris.urs-o, Chrisch, Chrisd87, Chrislk02, Chrisshfjisnuzxichv, Christopher Kraus, Chuckiesdad, Cinnamon42, Civil Engineer III, Ckatz, Claygate,
ClockworkSoul, Closeapple, Cmdrjameson, Cocytus, CodeWeasel, Cojo84, Cometstyles, CommonSense22, Computerdude33, Conti, Conversion script, Cooltrainer Hugh, CopperMurdoch,
Coreyhunter1, Cp111, Cpl Syx, Cunheavn, Curps, Cybercobra, D34gl3r, DRTllbrg, DVD R W, Dako1, Dan100, DangApricot, Daniel C. Boyer, Daniel Olsen, Daniel5127, DanielCD, Danny B-),
Darkrarehunt, Darwinek, Dasuitekilla, Dave6, Davenbelle, Davewild, David Wahler, Dawn Bard, Dbalsdon, Dbenbenn, Dbigwood, De Slager, DeadEyeArrow, Deadcorpse, Debresser,
Defjam445, Deglr6328, Dekaels, Delldot, Denelson83, DennyColt, Deon, Deor, DerHexer, Dethme0w, Dfrg.msc, Dgies, Digitalme, Dimitrimaster, Dino, DirkvdM, Discospinster, Diyako, Dj
Capricorn, Djuka2093, Dlohcierekim, Dmn, Dmsar, Dominik92, Donarreiskoffer, Doniago, Dori, DougsTech, Dpeters11, Dqfn13, DragonflySixtyseven, Dragons Bay, Dreadstar, Drmagic,
Dsm56, Dureo, E Wing, E rulez, ERK, ESkog, Eamick, EamonnPKeane, EarthPerson, East718, Ed Fitzgerald, Edcolins, Edgar181, EdmundSS, Edwardtbabinski, Edwin ok, EivindJ, El C,
Eleanor Y, Eleassar777, Electriceel, Elephant Juice, Elf, Elfino, Elium2, Elizabeyth, Elockid, Emergen, Emmett5, Emperorbma, Emurph, Epastore, Epbr123, Epicstonemason, Eplack, Erebus555,
Erika Yurken, Erikcarlson, Ernie Smith, Errabee, EscapingLife, Ettang, EugeneZelenko, Eve Hall, EvelynToseland, Evercat, Everyking, Excirial, Extreme Unction, Eyu100, Ezeu, FF2010,
Fabbro, Falcon8765, Falconleaf, Fangel96, Fangz, Farosdaughter, Farquaadhnchmn, Farristry, FastLizard4, Fdp, FelineAvenger, Fev, Fieldday-sunday, Finngall, Firekid, Fizzlehizz, Fjehoel,
Flewis, Florentino floro, Fluence, Flyguy649, Foobaz, Foulger, Freakofnurture, Frecklefoot, Fredbauder, Fredrik, Freekee, Frehley, Fremsley, Fuzheado, GDonato, GHe, GSlicer, GVP
Webmaster, Gaff, Gaia Octavia Agrippa, Gaius Cornelius, Gamaliel, Gap, GavinTing, Gawaxay, Gaz, Gdo01, Gene Nygaard, GeoGreg, GeoWriter, Geordiedavies, GeorgeOrr, Georgiegirl990,
Gerard Prins, Ghirlandajo, GhostPirate, Giftlite, GilbertoSilvaFan, Gilgamesh, Gilliam, Gimboid13, Gjd001, Glenn, Glennwells, Gogglebum, Gogo Dodo, Golbez, Goldom, Gonzo fan2007,
Goodnightmush, Gotyear, Gparker, Gracenotes, Graham, Graham87, Green caterpillar, Greg-nz, GregAsche, Gregjgrose, GregorB, Gregorof, Ground Zero, Gsalter, Guanlongwucaii,
Gubernatoria, Gunkarta, Gurch, Gurpaalbains, Gurubrahma, Gwernol, Hadal, Hamiltondaniel, Hancjona10, Hapsiainen, Hdt83, Helixblue, Heman, Henrik, HenryLi, Herakles01, Heron, Hike395,
Hiponie2, Hlk 751, Hmains, Hoboday, Hohum, HoodedMan, Horse312, Horse313, Howcheng, Howisube, Howsthatfordamage25, Hui love n, Hut 8.5, Huw Powell, I80and, Iains, Ian Pitchford,
Ibrahim rauza, Icairns, Iceman00, Ida Shaw, Igoldste, Ihsansunny, Illumini85, Imdugud, Imnotminkus, Imperial Star Destroyer, Inexplicable, Infrogmation, Innotata, Inomyabcs, Inter, Inter16,
Interiot, Invertzoo, Iridescent, Irishchieftain, Isaiahglenhayes, Issac 45, Iwonnamango, Ixfd64, J Milburn, J.delanoy, JALockhart, JFreeman, JPilborough, Jacek Kendysz, JackSparrow Ninja,
Jackaranga, Jackk, Jadeyjoo, Jaffer, Jake Wasdin, Jakemaster, James McNally, Jamesooders, Janeantoinette, Jason Schlumbohm, Jassy2010, Jaxl, Jcw69, Jdorje, Jeffrey Mall, Jeffrey O.
Gustafson, Jeremy Banks, Jerry, Jespinos, JesseW, Jh51681, Jiddisch, Jmundo, JoanneB, Joanneduff, John Reaves, John1208, JohnCub, Johnnyavenue, Jonkerz, Jonny1, Jorfer, Jorvik, Jose
Ramos, Jose77, Josen, Joseph Solis in Australia, Josh.douglas, Jossi, Joyous!, Jpeob, Jseach1, Jseach11, Jtkiefer, Jtlef89, Julesd, Jumbuck, Jurema Oliveira, Jverkoey, Jwebbxsjado, Jwissick,
K3zzyb01, Kablammo, Kandar, Kanonkas, Karen Johnson, Katalaveno, Kate, Kaykay959595, Kbn45, Kcordina, Kdliss, Keilana, Kelly190, Kendothpro, Kevin B12, Khalid Mahmood, Khalid!,
Khatru2, Khoikhoi, Kibur, KienNNN, Kimse, Kimyu12, Kingsofchaosjosh, Kjkrum, KnowledgeOfSelf, Kntrabssi, Knucmo2, Koavf, Korath, KrakatoaKatie, Krevans11, Kukini, Kungfuadam,
Kuru, Kwamikagami, KylerMoenck, LAX, La goutte de pluie, LaMenta3, Lahroo, Lakers, Lancevortex, Lappster, Latka, Lavintzin, Lazulilasher, Leandros, LeaveSleaves, Lectonar,
LedgendGamer, Lee, Leif, Lemchesvej, LeonardoRob0t, Leperflesh, Lesqual, Leuko, Liamdaly620, Liftarn, Lightmouse, Lights, Limideen, Lindmere, Linnell, Lipisiy, Litefantastic, LittleOldMe,
Littleangussoup, Llywelyn2000, Lmb, Lmcelhiney, Lord of the earth, Lowellian, Lpstubbs, Lukeyman, Luna Santin, Lupin, Lupo, LéonTheCleaner, MCTales, MER-C, MONGO, MPF, MPerel,
Madhero88, Maha ts, Mailseth, Maizcul, Majorly, Makedonia, Makeemlighter, Malcolm Farmer, Malerin, Malo, Man vyi, Manco Capac, Mangojuice, Manhinli, Maralia, Marcika,
Marcus.aerlous, Marek69, Mario todte, Mark Richards, MarkGallagher, MarkSutton, Marquez, MarsRover, Marshman, Martin451, Marvolo Gaunt, MarylandArtLover, Masterjamie,
Matdog311291, Math Champion, Mathpianist93, Mav, Max Schwarz, Maximaximax, Maximus Rex, Mboverload, Mbz1, McSly, Mddake, Mdresser, Meaghan, MearsMan, Mercury, Mesh920,
MesserWoland, Mhking, Michael Hardy, Michael K. Edwards, MichaelBillington, MickMacNee, Midnightcomm, Midway, Mike Rosoft, Mike123, Mikenorton, Milespianoforte, MiltonT,
Mitul0520, Mkamensek, Mlnovaaa, Mo0, MoeGirl4455, Molerat, Momet, Mon3ybagz, Montgomery '39, Moogle10000, Moralis, Morwen, Mother.earth, Mowgli, Mr Stephen, Mr. TQD,
Mrguytodd, Multimedia Mike, Muriel Gottrop, Mxn, NHSavage, Nadavspi, Nakon, Naruto2009, Natcase, NatureA16, Nauticashades, NawlinWiki, Nayvik, Nbound, NellieBly, Neo lmx,
Article Sources and Contributors 597

NeoJustin, Netalarm, Neuralwarp, Nev1, Nev2, Neverquick, NewEnglandYankee, Newportm, Nibuod, Nichetas, Nick, Nick C, Nick Levine, Nick123, NickBush24, NigelR, NightDragon,
Nihiltres, Nishkid64, Nivix, Nixeagle, Nneonneo, No name is unused, Noahisnice, Noctibus, Nopetro, NorCalHistory, NorthernFire, Nosebud, Novangelis, Nowhither, Nposs, NubKnacker,
OOZ662, Obsurity, Oda Mari, Ofbarea, Oldlaptop321, Oleg Alexandrov, Oli Filth, Oli b, Oliver Lineham, Olivier, Omicronpersei8, Omphacite, OneAmongBillions, Oneiros, OohBunnies!,
OranL, OverlordQ, Oxymoron83, PBAJ, Padyd123cammyk321, Palnu, Paranoid Eyes, Pascal.Tesson, Pat Payne, Patchdavison, Paukrus, Paul August, Paws Pal, Pcarbonn, Peruvianllama, Peter,
Peterandgill, Peterlin, Peterpanluver, Petersam, Pgk, Phantom kiwi, Phil 999, Philopedia, Piano non troppo, Picapica, Picaroon, PierreAbbat, Pilotguy, Pinethicket, Pizza Puzzle, Pjrx4718,
Plasticup, PleaseStand, Pleasetaketicket, Plek, Plm209, Pm911, Pmsyyz, PoccilScript, Polargeo, Polyamorph, Ponyo, Primalchaos, Primate, Prof,Mammal, ProveIt, Prucent, PseudoSudo,
Puchiko, Pumeleon, Purplepumpkin, Q2op, Qfl247, Qhop, Qlop, Qlorplox, Quadell, Quinwound, QuiteUnusual, Qweop, Qxz, R, RJHall, RJN, Radon210, RainbowOfLight, Rama's Arrow,
Random account 47, Randwicked, Raphael1, Raul654, Raustin976, Ravidreams, Rawrs, Rbakker99, Rdsmith4, Reach Out to the Truth, Recognizance, Redthoreau, Reedy, RegentsPark, Regibox,
Renato Caniatti, Res2216firestar, Resident Mario, Retiono Virginian, Rettetast, Revmachine21, RexNL, ReyBrujo, Rich Farmbrough, Rich257, Richard001, Risker, Rjwaker, Rjwilmsi, RobLa,
Robert Foley, Robertvan1, RobinMarks, Robinh, Robomaeyhem, Robth, Rocastelo, Rockfang, Rocknotch, Rolinator, RoyBoy, RoySmith, Rursus, RussellMcKenzie, Rvd4life, RxS,
RyanEberhart, Ryanchan111, Ryanmcdaniel, Ryansca, Rye1967, Ryukshinigami, S h i v a (Visnu), S9gibsons, SEWilco, SPERM BUBBLE, ST47, Sacxpert, Sagredo, Saimhe, Sam102198,
Samotnik, Samuelmonticelli, Samuelsen, Sango123, Sanket ar, Sannse, Saros136, Satori Son, Saurudog, Sbowers3, Scarian, SchfiftyThree, Schmloof, Schnauf, Schneelocke, Scholastica547,
SchuminWeb, Schutz, Scientizzle, Scipius, Sciurinæ, Sean K, SeanMack, Searcholo, Seattle Skier, Seba, Seddon, Sengkang, Sergay, Sesu Prime, Sgeureka, ShakataGaNai, Shanel, Shanes,
Sheepmaster, Shirik, Shizane, Shoy, Sidasta, SineWave, Sionnach1, Sir Nicholas de Mimsy-Porpington, Sjakkalle, Sjö, Skier Dude, SkippyNZ, Skizzik, Skomae, Skywalker989, Slakr, Slowking
Man, Slysplace, Smalljim, Smallman12q, Smart Arse, Smcgrother, Smithbrenon, Smoove Z, Snigbrook, Snowolf, Snoyes, SoCalSuperEagle, SoWhy, Solitude, Some P. Erson, Sommers,
SorryGuy, Soumyasch, SpLoT, Specialized vegas, Spellmaster, Spencer195, SpigotMap, Spolloman, Spongebab, SpookyMulder, SpuriousQ, Srikeit, Srleffler, Srose, Sssbbb2, Stanley Gallon,
Staplegunther, Starsimon, Steel, Stefan Udrea, Stefono123654789, Steinsky, Stephen e nelson, Stephen.trippis, Stephenb, Stevenishgaga, Sting-fr, Stubblyhead, SupaStarGirl, Super-Magician,
Superkali, Sverdrup, Symane, TFNorman, TKD, TMillerCA, Tam3rd, Tariqabjotu, Tarquin, Taskmaster99, Tawker, Teadegui, Techman224, Tedder, Tempodivalse, Tempshill, Tennis1994,
Terfili, TexasAndroid, Texture, Tgv8925, Thadius856, The High Fin Sperm Whale, The Rambling Man, The Random Editor, The Singing Badger, The Thing That Should Not Be, The way, the
truth, and the light, TheNewPhobia, ThePointblank, TheProject, Theda, Thehelpfulone, Thekarm, Thirdgrade0015, Thunderboltz, Tide rolls, TigerShark, Tiggerjay, Tillman, Tim1357, Tiptoety,
Titoxd, Titus III, Tlim7882, Tmopkisn, Tobby72, TobiMcIntyre, Toby Bartels, Tom harrison, Tommy2010, Tone, Tony Fox, Tony1, TonyClarke, Tpbradbury, Tra, Tracy the astonishing,
Travelbird, Tregoweth, Triona, TrogdorPolitiks, Truthsaid, Tsogo3, Tsunaminoai, Twerbrou, Twinsday, UWDI ced, Udonknome, Ufwuct, Umdunno, Una Smith, Uncle Dick, Utcursch, Vadim
Makarov, VandalCruncher, Vanished user 03, Vary, Veghead, Venu62, Versus22, Vicki Rosenzweig, Vignaux, Vin789, Vipinhari, Viriditas, Volcanicska, Volcanoguy, Voyagerfan5761, Vsmith,
WJBscribe, WODUP, Wackymacs, WadeSimMiser, Walor, Walton One, Wavelength, Wayward, WebHamster, Webdinger, Websterman92, Werdan7, Wesley1992, West Brom 4ever, Wetman,
Wi-king, Wickethewok, Wik, Wiki alf, WikiPedant, Wikirocks, Wikiwatcher1, William Avery, Willking1979, Wilson44691, Wimt, Winhunter, Wknight94, Wmahan, Wompa99, Worldtraveller,
Wrcmills, Wtmitchell, Xanucia, Xemenes111, Xezbeth, Y0u, Yamaguchi先生, Yansa, Yardcock, Yooden, Yrjö Kari-Koskinen, Yuanchosaan, Zahid Abdassabur, Zamphuor, Zawthetaung, Zet
Hikari, Ziggurat, ZimZalaBim, Zombie Ah Meng, Zomno, ZooFari, Zpb52, Ævar Arnfjörð Bjarmason, Јованвб, Саша Стефановић, 2895 anonymous edits

Global climate model  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=427213114  Contributors: A bit iffy, Abc-mn-xyz, Africangenesis, Agnana, Alan8746, Andrewjlockley, Arthur Rubin,
Awickert, Bender235, Benjaminevans82, Blanchette, Bobbywoods87, Boy1999, Brusegadi, C-randles, CPWinter, Carders, Charles Matthews, CommonsDelinker, Count Iblis, DARTH SIDIOUS
2, Dan Pangburn, Danger, Daniel.Cardenas, Doseiai2, Dragons flight, Edward, ElSaxo, Enescot, Epipelagic, Eric Salathe, Eyreland, Gabriel Kielland, Gene Nygaard, Ginsengbomb, Gogo Dodo,
Gralo, Hemantclimate, IanOfNorwich, Icairns, Immunize, Jambla, Jbergquist, Jebus989, Jorfer, Kazvorpal, Kevinp2, KimDabelsteinPetersen, LaggedOnUser, Lightmouse, Lisa Jayne Johnson,
Looie496, Lulu71339, MER-C, Mailseth, Marvin1292, Mdd, Menwith, Michael Hardy, Michel M Verstraete, Mrfebruary, Mwtoews, NHSavage, Nils Simon, Ninala, Nishkid64, Oleg
Alexandrov, OverlordQ, Pflatau, Poodleboy, Professor Chaos, Q Science, Ragger65, Raven097, Raymond Arritt, Raymond arritt, Reaper Eternal, RedAndr, Rich Farmbrough, Rjeong, Rjwilmsi,
Robina Fox, Robocoder, SEWilco, Sagredo, Samohyl Jan, Scil100, SebastianHelm, Sheogorath, Short Brigade Harvester Boris, Simesa, Sjorford, Sketchee, SkipNMuffy, Slym Gym, Spiffy
sperry, Squiddy, Stevehhll, Stuartyeates, Tbhotch, TeaDrinker, Terrx, The great sluggo, Thegreatdr, Thomas Yeardly, Threeiem, Tillman, Tinndel, Tlroche, Tony Sidaway, UBeR, Van helsing,
Vgy7ujm, Vsmith, Wavelength, Whosezwot, Wik, Wikispan, William M. Connolley, Xaxafrad, Yworo, 80 anonymous edits

History of climate change science  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426307770  Contributors: 7390r0g, Atmoz, Awickert, Ben Shubel, BlueHeavos, Brian A Schmidt,
Bunfutzian, Cla68, CurtisSwain, Dave souza, Diannaa, Gabriel Kielland, GirasoleDE, Gobonobo, Golgofrinchian, Hmains, Hoovre, LovelyButz, Maktoo, Moxy, Nigelj, OKIsItJustMe, Orphan
Wiki, PlentyGoode, Prolog, Q Science, Rjwilmsi, Short Brigade Harvester Boris, Squiddy, Tony Sidaway, Vsmith, Wavelength, Wheel of Fortun, William M. Connolley, 14 anonymous edits

Scientific opinion on climate change  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426547938  Contributors: 2over0, ATren, AceMyth, Achernar, Adambiswanger1, Adi, Airborne84,
Alai, Alan Liefting, Alansohn, Alex.rosenheim, Algoreisamonkey, Amcbride, Andrewjlockley, Andrewrp, Anirvan, Arthur Rubin, Artman772000, Atlastawake, Atmoz, AungKhinOo, Aunt
Entropy, Awickert, Axon, Azza1995, BFJCRICKLEWOOD, Beetstra, Benhocking, Bigbluefish, Birdbrainscan, BlaiseFEgan, Bobblewik, Bobo192, BoyliciousDarian, Brauntonian, Brian A
Schmidt, Brian Jackson, Brissbane, Brusegadi, Bsadowski1, CRGreathouse, Caldwell malt, CalebNoble, Calion, Callonjim, Can't sleep, clown will eat me, Caue.cm.rego, Causa sui, Cenarium,
Childhoodsend, ChildofMidnight, Chris 42, Chrisjj, Ckatz, Closedmouth, Coastwise, Cool Hand Luke, Cortonin, Count Iblis, Croctotheface, Crust, CurtisSwain, Cyan, Cyrusc, DGG, DGaw,
DHooke1973, DLH, Dan100, Dapa22, Davewild, Dawn Bard, Db099221, Debrajon, Denis Diderot, Dfm25, Diafygi, Director Re, Dmcq, DonCoyote51, Dragons flight, Drstuey, Dryman,
Dumky, Duncharris, Dusty14, E0steven, EWS23, Earthsky, Ebb and Flo, Ed Poor, Edbanky, Edderso, Ehermann2223, El C, ElKevbo, Elhector, Eloquence, Epbr123, Erich gasboy, Esmehwp,
Esthameian, Evercat, Evildictaitor, Ewawer, Fairness And Accuracy For All, Femfacal, Fentonrobb, Foofighter20x, Foofish, Forest001, Fram, Frankieleelee, Freesoul111, Funkysurfdude, Gabbe,
Gabriel Kielland, Gaff, Gareth E Kegg, Gavin.collins, Georgesdelatour, Geotype, Ghw777, Giftlite, Gimboid13, Gmb92, Gnangarra, GoRight, Gobonobo, GoodSamaritan, Gralo, GregBenson,
GregJackP, Ground Zero, Guettarda, Hal peridol, Half The Way Valley, Hans Adler, HawkShark, Hermoine Gingold, Hipocrite, Hnchan01, Icantwait, Iceage77, Iceberg007, Id447, InSpace,
Inthend9, Iridescent, IronMaidenRocks, Istranix, J. Johnson, J.delanoy, Jaganath, Jason Patton, Jaymax, Jayron32, Jcc1, Jcosco, Jersyko, Jfendrick, Jmccgod, John Broughton, John Hyams, John
Quiggin, JohnDziak, JohnMashey, Johnfos, JohnnyB256, JonGwynne, Jonathanischoice, Jorfer, Josiah Rowe, Jprw, Jrtayloriv, Juliancolton, K, Karbinski, Kean Thomas, Kelvin Modest,
KillerChihuahua, KimDabelsteinPetersen, KnowledgeOfSelf, Knowsetfree, Lacessere, Lcl, Leshalfhill, Levelpanictwiceplus, Lexlex, Lightlowemon, LilHelpa, LittleDan, Llewdor, LonelyMarble,
Lotje, MSGJ, Mac, MalcolmMcDonald, Marco Krohn, Marek69, MastCell, Matt Crypto, Mattisse, Mbeychok, McSly, Meat Sweats, Medallion of Phat, Membre, Mentality, Menwith, Merlinme,
Merzul, Michael Johnson, Michaelkourlas, MikeR613, Mindmatrix, MonoApe, Monoape, Moxy, MrKimber, Mrathel, Mrfebruary, N p holmes, N5iln, NHSavage, Naught101, NawlinWiki,
Nehrams2020, Neilperth, NeoJustin, Nethgirb, Nicholas Tan, Nigel Montcrief, Nigelj, Nils Simon, NimNick, Nmcclana, Northernhenge, Nursebhayes, Obsidi, Ocaasi, OlEnglish, Oliepedia,
Oren0, Oriolpont, Osbojos, Other Choices, Palica, Pb30, Pcarbonn, Pengo, Peterlewis, Pflatau, Phactotum, Phanly, Phase Theory, Phoenix Hacker, Piano non troppo, PinkTentacle, Plaasjapie,
Porqin, Prolog, Promethean, Pytom, QuackGuru, QueenCake, Ralree, Rasotis, Ratel, Raul654, Raymond arritt, Rd232, Rendahl, Renegade570829, Rich Farmbrough, Richrakh, Riding on the
Wind, Rjwilmsi, Rktect, RobinGrant, RonCram, Ropata, Rosarinagazo, Rrburke, Rursus, SEWilco, Saintbrendan, SanAntonioPete, SaunderM, Scientizzle, Seba5618, Seglea, Seraphimblade,
Shanes, Sheldon Rampton, Short Brigade Harvester Boris, Short Brigade Harvester Boris (original), Silverback, Simetrical, Sirwells, Skarebo, Skyemoor, Slarson, Smoove Z, Snowman frosty,
Special4k, Spellmaster, Spiffy sperry, Splette, SpudHawg948, Squandermania, Squiddy, Ssilvers, Stephan Schulz, Stevenwagner, Supernedved, TMLutas, Tankred6, Tbhotch, Tcncv, TeaDrinker,
Tedder, Telekenesis, Terjepetersen, Tezp, The Cunctator, The Enlightened, The Founders Intent, The Thing That Should Not Be, The machine512, TheOuthouseMouse, Theclubhq, Threop, Tide
rolls, Tillman, Tired time, Tktktk, Tmeste, Tony Sidaway, TonySeales14, Treedel, Twelvethirteen, Twisted Bunny, U$er, UBeR, Ubern00b, Unilli, Utrechtse, Van helsing, Vanished user
47736712, VanishedUser314159, Verbal, Vianello, Vice regent, Viriditas, Voiceofreason01, Vsmith, WVBluefield, Wafulz, Wavelength, Wetman, When Muffins Attack, Wikispan, William M.
Connolley, Wing Nut, Wndl42, Woohookitty, World Lever, XP1, Xfastor, Yamamoto Ichiro, Yearston, Yllie, Yopienso, Zeeboid, Zenwhat, Zinjixmaggir, Zoomwsu, ZuluPapa5, Δ, 448
anonymous edits

List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=421284135  Contributors: 00666, 1223334444, A
Quest For Knowledge, ACV777, Addshore, Africangenesis, Akasofu, Alan Baskin, Alan Liefting, AlexLibman, Alexh19740110, Alice Lyddel, Altenmann, Andrevan, Andrewjlockley, Angela,
Appraiser, Arker, Arthur Rubin, Atmoz, Aunt Entropy, Awickert, Ayanoa, Ayla, B3virq3b, Backslash Forwardslash, Bdixon, Beckyvolley, Benhocking, Bentley4, Betsythedevine, Bioextra,
Birdbrainscan, BlaiseFEgan, Blue Tie, BlueSal, Bobblewik, Bonewah, BozMo, Bpplowman, Brian0918, Brissbane, Britcom, Brittainia, Brusegadi, Buddyglass, Bugguyak, Can't sleep, clown will
eat me, Cap'nTrade, Casliber, Ceejayoz, Childhoodsend, ChildofMidnight, Chris Bainbridge, Chriswiki, Cla68, Cool Hand Luke, CoolHandNuke, Coopercmu, CreateSomeNoise, Crust,
CurtisSwain, Cyde, DGaw, DJ Clayworth, DLH, DRJ, Dan Pangburn, DannyMuse, David Guest, DavidOaks, Deamon138, Dean1970, Debresser, Dexterbrown, Dhaluza, Dimawik, Djbaniel,
DonaldDuck07, Doviel, Download, Dpawkng, DrLove829, Dragons flight, Dscott8186, Duchamps comb, Dylan38, Dylan6207, Dyuku, Echofloripa, Ed Poor, Ehheh, Elhector, Elysianfields,
Emerson7, Engleman, Ergzay, Esmehwp, EvanHarper, Everton12, Fabrictramp, Feberle, FellGleaming, Fl, Flegelpuss, Floydian, Freiheitkrieger, Frenstad, Gdavidp, Geologician, Ggb667,
Glover, GoRight, Gobonobo, Gordongraff, GregorB, Gscshoyru, Guettarda, Gwinva, HappyInGeneral, HappyJake, HaroldHolmyard, Highly Unlikely, Hipocrite, Hmains, Hobit, Hodja
Nasreddin, Hongsy, Hunterhogan, IanOfNorwich, Iceage77, Id447, Irate velociraptor, Irbisgreif, Ivanelo, J-stan, J. Johnson, J. Sketter, Jambla, Jannyshoe, Jason Patton, Jayen466, Jc-S0CO, Jcc1,
JeffBurdges, Jeffwishart, Jepp, JettaMann, Jfdwolff, Jim2345, Jmcnamera, Jogar2, John Hyams, John Quiggin, Johnfos, Joseph Solis in Australia, JoshuaZ, Jprw, Juanfermin, JzG, Kbk,
Keesiewonder, Kenneth Cooke, Kevin, Kevin Forsyth, Khukri, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Komdori, Kyaa the Catlord, LFaraone, LVAustrian, Lantrix, Lawrence Cohen, Leandrod,
LegitimateAndEvenCompelling, LetterRip, Lightmouse, Longhair, LotR, Lquilter, Ltbx.com, Lumidek, Lumos3, Lupo, Macy, MalcolmMcDonald, Manscher, Marcika, Martin Hogbin, Matt
Garnett, MaxPont, Mbeychok, Meegs, Meekywiki, Meltwaternord, Menwith, Merlinme, Merovingian, Mhaag, Michael Hardy, Minor4th, Mjharrison, Mlaffs, Mmarque, Mnation2, Mnyakko,
Monoape, Mrmuk, Mrs.dog, Mtobis, Mukadderat, Mütze, Nakon, Nealparr, Nethgirb, Nicholas Tan, Nickcoop, Nigel Montcrief, Nigelj, Nil Einne, Nils Simon, NimNick, Nopetro, Nwbeeson, O,
Ondrejk, Onore Baka Sama, Oren0, Ours18, Paul Matthews, Pcbene, Pengo, Pflatau, Phanly, Polargeo, Prester John, Prnd3825, PyroGamer, Pyrospirit, Pytom, Q Science, QuackGuru, R. Baley,
RMHED, Rameses, Raul654, Raymond arritt, Red Act, RedRabbit1983, Regress, RonCram, Ronz, Rosarinagazo, Rossnixon, Rotiro, RoyBoy, Rracecarr, Ryulong, SEWilco, Sceptre, Scientizzle,
Scjessey, Sduplessie, Severo, ShakingSpirit, Shoemaker's Holiday, Short Brigade Harvester Boris, Showman60, Silverback, Skydot, Skyemoor, SlimVirgin, Sln3412, Smartse, Snowolf,
Soccergrls rock555, Spartaz, Spiffy sperry, Splette, Ssilvers, Stephan Schulz, Sympa, Tanuki-Dori, Tassedethe, TehCell, Tergadare, Tescomaturecheese, Thailboat, The Anome, The Epopt, The
Founders Intent, The Noosphere, The Rambling Man, The Squicks, The Wordsmith, The machine512, TheVerum, Theblog, Thomas Paine1776, Thparkth, Thumperward, Timothyrood,
Tomtefarbror, Tony Sidaway, Tony1, Triona, UBeR, UnitedStatesian, Vanished user, VanishedUser314159, Verbal, Viriditas, Vsmith, Wavelength, Wereon, Wetman, WikHead, Wiki alf,
Article Sources and Contributors 598

William M. Connolley, Wing Nut, Wizardman, Woohookitty, Xyzt1234, Y, Zamphuor, Zeeboid, Zeke pbuh, Zenwhat, ZuluPapa5, Zzuuzz, Óðinn, Δ, 386 anonymous edits

Effects of global warming  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426569889  Contributors: 10014derek, 21tom92, A3RO, ABF, ANOMALY-117, Aaron Schulz, Adam McMaster,
Addshore, Adi, AdultSwim, Afasmit, Agnana, Agüeybaná, Ahoerstemeier, Air-con noble, Airborne84, Aitias, Aleenf1, Alex.g12345, Alex.rosenheim, Alexllew, Algkalv, Aliwalla, Altenmann,
Alvestrand, Anastrophe, Andrew curnow, Andrewjlockley, Andrewpmk, Anguis, Anirvan, AnneDELS, Antandrus, Anythingyouwant, Aridd, Arjun01, Arjuna909, Arthur Rubin,
AstroHurricane001, Atari2600tim, Atletiker, Atmoz, Atomicdor, Aude, Autopilot, Auximines, Awickert, AxelBoldt, BD2412, Baa, Badgernet, Balla567, Balla69, BallsmahoneyREOW,
Barticus88, Baunret, Belly of the Beast, BenB4, Bender235, Bendzh, Benjamin Weaver, BennyQuixote, Betacommand, Bev Bevins, Bewildebeast, Big Bird, Bigcoon, Bikeable, Bilby,
Bingomzan, BlastOButter42, Bleh999, BlueEarth, BlueGoose, Bob98133, Bobblewik, Bobo192, BocoROTH, Boehner, Bogden400, Bonesiii, Born1913, Boud, Brainiac2595, Brandonromero,
Brekass, Brian A Schmidt, Brianga, Bruceanthro, Brusegadi, Bsansvsage, BuickCenturyDriver, Burkinaboy, C-randles, CALR, Calvin 1998, CambridgeBayWeather, Can't sleep, clown will eat
me, CardinalDan, Casual dude, Cderoose, Chanakal, Chasrmartin, Chatfecter, Chemical Euphoria, Chet nc, Chickenfarmer73, Chill doubt, Chrisdab, Christmastree1225, Chunky Rice, Ciggy101,
Clayoquot, Click23, Colonies Chris, Complex (de), Cool Hand Luke, Cordless Larry, Count23, Cpl Syx, Crabula, Craigy144, Cremepuff222, Crystalangel09, Crystallina, Curps, CurtisSwain,
Cuspid Groove, D climacus, DRTllbrg, DSRH, DTM, Dalej78, DamoclesSword, Dan100, Daniel Collins, Dave6, Davidof, Dawn Bard, Dbiel, Dburdenbates, Dcsohl, Deagle AP, Dean1970,
Deditos, Dekisugi, Delta x, Democrat1, Demoscn, DerHexer, Derf noxid, Diwas, Dog and Pony Show, Dogru144, Doseiai2, Dr. Dongle, Dragons flight, Dreadstar, Duagloth, Duncan.france,
Dylan12390, Dylzo13, Dysepsion, ERcheck, ESkog, EWS23, Eastlaw, Ed Poor, Edvard818, Edward, Egyptian language, Ekrub-ntyh, Elekhh, Eljamoquio, Ellipsis, Emcorr, Emx, Enescot, Enuja,
Epastore, Epbr123, Eran of Arcadia, Erik Garrison, Ethii, Etribs, Euchiasmus, Eve's Plumb, Evolauxia, Ewen, Excirial, FF2010, Facethefacts, FayssalF, Feline Hymnic, FisherQueen, Fowler
Pierre, Fox, Fred Bauder, Funandtrvl, GWeng420, Gabi Radler, Gabriel Kielland, Gaff, Gene Nygaard, Geo Swan, Geodegiraffe, Ghw777, Giftlite, Gilliam, GirasoleDE, Givegains, Glen, Gnome
de plume, GoneAwayNowAndRetired, Gorank4, Gorton k, Gralo, Grecian Formula, Grstain, Grundle2600, Gurchzilla, Gustavb, Gzkn, H2g2bob, Hal peridol, Harel, Harrypottersux, Havocrazy,
Henk65, Hobartimus, Hokanomono, Hu, Hu12, Hucz, HybridBoy, IFinishWhatIStar, Iain99, IceCreamAntisocial, Iceage77, Ikariam3944, Illi Racor, Imaninjapirate, Indigoboo, Indomaster,
Iridescent, IrisKawling, Islandman92, Isonomia, Ixfd64, J.delanoy, J04n, JBellis, JForget, Jacek Kendysz, Jaksap, James AL Williams, JamesAM, Janko, Jason Patton, Jason.stover, JayHenry,
JayJasper, Jcc1, Jdorwin, Jeff dowter, Jensbn, JettaMann, JimR, Jmko22, Joebloggs99, John Hill, John Quiggin, John254, Johnpseudo, Jorfer, Joseph Solis in Australia, Jossi, Jrsnbarn, Julzes,
Kalecokat, Katalaveno, Katiemaher, Kbdank71, Keegan, Keimzelle, Kevin, Kevin Brumage, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Kinderhaus, Kirrages, Klundarr, Knuckles, Koavf, Kotra, Kungfuadam,
Kuru, La goutte de pluie, Lahiru k, Lance Yeltsin, Lappado, Lawilkin, Leif, Li Teng-Hue, Lightblade, Lightmouse, Listing Port, Little Red Wagon Painted Blue, LittleOldMe, Lo2u, Loodog,
Loren.wilton, Lou.weird, M0onlightx, MCB, MONGO, MPF, MPerel, Mac, Mac Davis, Macedonian King, Mackabean, MagneticFlux, Mailseth, Makgraf, Mandaglione, Manmobile, Mariordo,
MarkSutton, MarsRover, MartinRe, Martinp23, Masterpoe, Mattisse, Mausy5043, Maxschmelling, Mbimmler, Mboverload, Mclover08, Medallion of Phat, Megan Reyes, Mel Sharples,
Melsaran, Meltwaternord, Mentifisto, Mentisock, Menwith, Merope, Meyer Lemon, Michael Greiner, Michael McGuffie, Michael93555, Mikael Häggström, Mild Bill Hiccup, Mjdon67, Moeron,
Moreschi, Moshiach, Mostlyharmless, Mporter, MrSomeone, Mrdthree, Mrholybrain, Mrzaius, Mukkakukaku, Myanw, Möchtegern, NHSavage, NJGW, NYCJosh, Nagy, Nallan, Napamick,
Narssarssuaq, Naught101, NawlinWiki, Neilc, Nethgirb, Netsnipe, Nicholas Perkins, Nick, Nigelj, Nils Simon, No Guru, NoIdeaNick, Novickas, Nrcprm2026, O.Duke, Oguz32, Ohhitscrystal,
Ohnoitsjamie, Omicronpersei8, One, Optakeover, Optichan, Orangemarlin, Orcaborealis, Oren0, Ot, Otolemur crassicaudatus, Oxymoron83, PAK Man, PTSE, Paranomia, Passmethenuts, Paul
August, Peltoms, Penguinz71193, Persian Poet Gal, Pflatau, Phanly, Philip Trueman, Pilotguy, Plumbago, Pol098, Polargeo, PoliticalJunkie, Pondle, Prashanthns, Prickus, Professor33,
Pseudo-Richard, Psi-kat, Puchiko, Punctilius, Pupster21, QuackGuru, RDBrown, RapidR, Raul654, Raymond arritt, RazorICE, Rd232, Rebecca, Red, Reedy, Reeljay, Rettetast, RexNL,
Rgoodermote, Rich Farmbrough, Rick DeLong, RingtailedFox, Rjwilmsi, Rktect, Rmt2m, Roke, Rory096, RossPatterson, Rossnixon, RoyBoy, Rtol, Rudjek, Rumping, Rursus, RyanCross,
Ryulong, SEWilco, SJP, Saaga, Sagredo, Saikiri, Samuel Belkins, Samuell, Sango123, SarekOfVulcan, Sarranduin, Saturday, Savie Kumara, Sceptre, Scetoaux, Scott14, Seraphim, Sharkface217,
Shawine, Shel Stevens, Shenme, Shenstar, Shinpah1, Shintsu, Short Brigade Harvester Boris, Silverback, Simesa, Skyemoor, Skywolf, Slicedoranges, Sm8900, Smartguy583, SmilesALot,
Smilesfozwood, Smith609, Smithsmith, Smojarro, Snowangel 10510, Snowman frosty, Sommers, Sphilbrick, Spitzl, Splash, Splette, Spliffy, Srose, Ssilvers, Stefan, Stephan Schulz, Sterculius,
Steven Zhang, Stevenrl, Stjohnson31, Stokerm, Stone, Sukee2, SunCreator, Sunny910910, Sword and Shield, Takowl, Tapir Terrific, Tasfan, Tatrgel, Tayladarcy, TeaDrinker, Tgmonkeyman,
Thailboat, The Aviv, The Giant Puffin, The Moons of Jupiter, The monkeyhate, Theantinorway, Thebogusman, Theo Pardilla, Thingg, Tiddly Tom, TimVickers, Tirin, Titoxd, Tmcdonnell, Tom
harrison, Tomasdemul, Tony Sidaway, Tornadou, TotalSpaceshipGuy3, Tough as Steel, Touisiau, TraustiV, Tricky Wiki44, Triwbe, UBeR, UkPaolo, Ultra34343434, Unilli, User At Work, Van
der Hoorn, Vapour, Virgoapoorva, Viriditas, Voxpuppet, Vpwatts, Vsmith, WAS 4.250, Wavelength, Wavie Gravy, Weser, Wetman, Wheasley, Wickethewok, Wikidudeman, William M.
Connolley, Wimt, Woer$, Woohookitty, Woood, Wragge, Wsiegmund, Wyatt Stringfellow, Xavierfrenette, Xenophon777, Xiroth, Yandman, Yashtulsyan, Yintan, Yllie, Zalgo, Zaragoza2008,
Zinjixmaggir, 1172 anonymous edits

Abrupt climate change  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426193993  Contributors: Andrewjlockley, Arthur Rubin, AstroHurricane001, Atmoz, Awickert, Bender235,
Bento00, CurtisSwain, Dekimasu, Deville, Doldrums, Elfino, Enescot, Everyking, Flexiblefine, Gary Glass, Giorgiogp2, Gralo, Headbomb, Id447, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Nono64, Ntsimp,
Pflatau, Philip Trueman, Piano non troppo, Possum, RDBrown, Rich Farmbrough, Rjwilmsi, Shell Kinney, Sleeppointer, Some jerk on the Internet, Squiddy, Ssilvers, St91, StaticGull,
Stormcloud22, Tony Sidaway, Ucucha, Ugajin, Visite fortuitement prolongée, Vsmith, Wcalvin, William M. Connolley, 49 anonymous edits

Climate change and agriculture  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=423650781  Contributors: Abanima, ActivExpression, Alan Liefting, Alansohn, Aliwalla, Anirinel, Anthere,
Anthony, Appanouki, Atletiker, Atmoz, AxelBoldt, Baguio, Basicdesign, Birdbrainscan, Bkwillwm, Bletch, Bobblehead, Bobblewik, Bogdangiusca, Brusegadi, Camw, CanisRufus,
Cmdrjameson, Cobalttempest, CurtisSwain, Cyrusc, Dabbler, Dan D. Ric, Dhollm, Dhuynh88, Discospinster, Doc Strange, Doseiai2, Enescot, Eppyie, Everyking, Evildictaitor, Faradayplank,
Ferkelparade, Firsfron, Gabbe, Gaius Cornelius, Gbennell, Gcolive, Gene Nygaard, Gobonobo, Govontario, Gralo, Graymornings, Guettarda, Heightwatcher, Igoldste, Iridescent,
IslandHopper973, J.delanoy, JaGa, Jagged, Jason Patton, Jefferson Anderson, Keish3405, Kevin Brumage, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Koavf, La goutte de pluie, Lightmouse, Look2See1, Luit jan,
Magog the Ogre, ManoaChild, Marek69, Marekzp, Matt Heard, Maximus Rex, McSly, Menwith, Michael Corey, Moeron, Mrzaius, Naddy, Nanasusie, Nethgirb, Nikai, Nscott.odi, Ogunmade,
Ohnoitsjamie, Pak21, Paleorthid, Pekinensis, Pollinator, Prester John, Prolog, Qmwne235, RTucker, Radial Residue, Radon210, Raminagrobis fr, Raul654, Raymond arritt, Rd232, Reedy,
Reelx09, Rentaferret, Restepc, Rich Farmbrough, Richard001, Richhoncho, Rjwilmsi, Rojasyesid, Roux-HG, SBuzzelli, Sam Yi, Samwell Pinkus, Sarnac531, Scarian, Securiger, Seth Ilys,
Shattered Gnome, Shiftchange, Silverback, Skyemoor, Slovakia, Smartse, Squids and Chips, StephanieM, Strayson, SunCreator, Susan IFPRI, TeaDrinker, Texture, Thatguyflint, The Thing That
Should Not Be, The1physicist, Theo Pardilla, Thomas Yeardly, Tide rolls, TimBentley, Toby Bartels, Trasman, Triku, Vextration, WPIsFlawed, Waterstones, Weeliljimmy, Wikifx, Wolfrock,
Woohookitty, Ystil, 138 anonymous edits

Climate change and ecosystems  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=422577276  Contributors: Deditos, Enescot, KimDabelsteinPetersen, RHaworth, Rich Farmbrough,
Rjwilmsi, Snek01, Vsmith, 4 anonymous edits

Drought  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426203312  Contributors: 130.94.122.xxx, 86mecool, A8UDI, Acebrock, ActivExpression, Addshore, AdjustShift, Adrian, Aeioup,
After Midnight, Agrias, Ahoerstemeier, Aitias, Alan Liefting, Alansohn, AlexiusHoratius, Alison, AlphaPikachu578, Altenmann, Amandajoan1872, AnnaFrance, Antandrus, Anthony.eden,
Apparition11, Arceus1000, Arthena, Arthur Rubin, Asidemes, AstroHurricane001, AtheWeatherman, Atletiker, Atomicdor, AugustWind, Avoided, Ayudante, BD2412, Babij, Backslash
Forwardslash, BarretBonden, BazookaJoe, Belligero, Bermicourt, Bidgee, Bige1977, Biqh, BlarghHgralb, Blue Mirage, Bob1larry, Bobblewik, Bobo192, Bongwarrior, Brekass, Brekky, Breno,
Brianga, Bryan Derksen, BryanLeung, Bsadowski1, Butros, C777, CAJ, Cal14, Can't sleep, clown will eat me, Canadian-Bacon, CapitalR, Carcharoth, Carl Sixsmith, Carlroller, CarolSpears,
Carved Ftw, Cassowary, Caulde, Cerambyx, Chris G, ChrisLamb, Chuckiesdad, Ciacchi, Claristahardin, Closedmouth, Cohesion, ConCompS, CrucifiedChrist, Cuddy Wifter, DVD R W,
Dan100, DanMS, Daniel Collins, Darkwind, DavidWBrooks, Davidovic, Delldot, DennyColt, Deor, DerHexer, Dewet, Diego Grez, Djhilton, Dlohcierekim, Download, Drmarkmulligan,
E2eamon, EWS23, Ebell101, Echosmoke, Ehjort, El C, El aprendelenguas, Elkano92, Elkman, Emersoni, Enviroboy, Epbr123, Eric rizzoy, Excerpted31, Ezeu, FaerieInGrey, Family agds,
Favonian, Fayte, FelisLeo, Fir0002, Flagah123, Flewis, Flyingplatapus, Forgot2follow, Fox, Fredbauder, Fyyer, Gail, Gaius Cornelius, Galoubet, Gandalfxviv, Ganley894, Gardenfrisk, General
Jazza, Geo pradeep, GerardM, Gfoley4, Giggy, Gilliam, Ginger bite18, Govontario, Greatrobo76, Greswik, Grinning Idiot, Gscshoyru, Gurch, Gurchzilla, Guyana Barrister, Gwernol,
Gyromorgian, HalfShadow, Halfbak123, Haoie, HappyJake, Hardyplants, Harmil, Harryboyles, Harshit arora, HastyDeparture, Haukurth, HenryLi, Hgdfgdfhgdf, Highstakes47, Hike395,
Hintonmj, Hirudo, Hmains, Hockeyman2, Horlo, Huhsunqu, Huhushi, II MusLiM HyBRiD II, IRP, Iamfscked, Idarvol, Ikiroid, Imc, InShaneee, Ipatrol, Iridescent, Isaac Dupree, Its snowing in
East Asia, Ixfd64, J.J.Sagnella, J.M.Domingo, J.delanoy, JForget, JaGa, Jakobako, JamesTeterenko, Japanese Searobin, Javierito92, Jeff G., Jeffrey Mall, Jer10 95, Jeremy Visser, Jesse Viviano,
Jh12, Jibbles, John Moss, John254, Juliaa.italiana, Justin Eiler, Jymbo04, Jæs, Karenjc, Karl Meier, Katoa, Kchsmith, Kelisi, Kembangraps, Kieran preece, Kingpin13, Kjramesh, Kkiillaa,
Koorangakai, Kralizec!, Kubigula, Kukini, Kummi, Kuru, La Pianista, Laurips, Law, LeaveSleaves, Legare, Lights, Loren.wilton, Lotje, Lou1986, Luk, Luna Santin, Lynari, MER-C, Mac,
Magicwombat, Malintended, Manticore, Manway, MarcoTolo, Marekzp, Markdr, Marthaerin1812, Mary quite contrary, Matilda, Mattbr, Matthew Yeager, Mattlittle 11, Maxamegalon2000,
Maxmoau, Mdebets, Meco, Mentisock, Mercury34, Michael Devore, MichaelBillington, Milo40, Miquonranger03, Mlpearc, Moeron, Molinari, Monkey88, Monkeyguy28, Morenooso, Mr
Stephen, MrFish, Mrzaius, NawlinWiki, Nbcs11, Neelix, Neilc, Neo-Jay, Neyzen, Nick C, Nick Number, Nick123, Nivix, Nolat, Nopetro, NorthernFire, Notjake13, Oda Mari, Okydokyartichoky,
OllieFury, Omicronpersei8, Onceonthisisland, Oneiros, Ost316, Oxymoron83, PYLrulz, Papalew, Patstuart, Paul August, Pharaoh of the Wizards, PhilKnight, Philippe, Phoebe, Physicecho99,
Piano non troppo, PiccoloNamek, Plasticpope, Plasticup, Pmcchesn, Polonius, Prajwal.pravinjith, Prari, Prashanthns, PrincessofLlyr, Puchiko, Pyrofork, Quintote, R3m0t, RKloti, Radon210,
Rainmonger, Rarvikar, Realberserker, Red Director, Reinthal, RexNL, Rich Farmbrough, RickK, Romanskolduns, Ronhjones, Royalguard11, Rror, Rsduhamel, Rtcpenguin, Runningonbrains,
Rwxrwxrwx, Sarnac531, Saxsux, SchfiftyThree, ScottDavis, ScottSteiner, Seaborg, SeanTater, Seba5618, Sephiroth BCR, Shadowjams, Shauni, Shiftchange, Sirtrebuchet, Skarebo,
SkyViewOrphanage, Smallzee, Smiker, Snehanaag, Snek01, Soulpatch, SpLoT, SpiderJon, Stalwart111, StaticGull, StephenBuxton, Stephenb, Steven Zhang, Sunray, Sushant gupta, Suyat,
Syncmaster710v, T boyd, TFOWR, Tavaresiroc, Tbhotch, Techman224, The Anome, The Cunctator, The Lord Of The Dance, The Thing That Should Not Be, TheRanger, Thegreatdr, Theo
Pardilla, Theoldanarchist, Thingg, Tide rolls, Tiniti, Tmangray, Tobby72, Todd.darcie, Tony Fox, Tradewater, Trasman, Tricee, Trilobitealive, Tripodian, Triwbe, Trophykart girl,
Tropicalstormshirley, Twinsday, Tyler, Ugur Basak, Uncle Dick, Undead warrior, Unschool, Unyoyega, Useight, Van helsing, Vanished 6551232, Vinniex1, Viridae, Vrenator, W0357, Wang
ty87916, Waterwise, Wavelength, Weiwensg, West.andrew.g, WikiFew, WikipedianMarlith, Wikipelli, Wikisux007, Wilhelm Ritter, Will Beback, Wizardman, Woer$, Wombatcat, Woudloper,
Yamamoto Ichiro, Yandman, Youssefsan, Z10x, 1210 anonymous edits
Article Sources and Contributors 599

Economics of global warming  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=423032040  Contributors: 21655, Andrew Hoerner, Art LaPella, Arthur Rubin, Atmoz, Auntof6, BeachedOne,
Bfinn, Birdbrainscan, Brusegadi, CambridgeBayWeather, Camw, Capt. James T. Kirk, Cause For Alarm, Chaucer Bolays, Childhoodsend, Christv, ChyranandChloe, Ckatz, Dannyc77,
Danthemankhan, David Eppstein, David s graff, Decltype, Difficulttoremember, Dmcq, Driving and Crying, Earth, Econo67a, Enescot, FCsector1, Festive Butz, FifeOpp08, Flashout, Fram,
FrankTobia, Fresno Area Rapid Transit, Gabbe, Geoff Kohne, Gilliam, Gralo, HaeB, Hailey C. Shannon, Hal peridol, He Who Walks in Cloud With Bear, Heart of a Lion, Huffington380, Irt78,
J04n, Jake Wartenberg, John Hyams, John Quiggin, Joseph Solis in Australia, Kevin Brumage, KimDabelsteinPetersen, King Korn, Led zec, Lee Wells, Lordmenthu, Mac, Makower,
MartinPoulter, Meltwaternord, Membre, Menwith, Mietchen, Mrfebruary, N p holmes, Nacor, Nadyes, Nctrlaltdel, Ned Pollo, Never Fad Away, Nigelpuff, Nil Einne, Nishkid64, Nopetro,
Nrcprm2026, Pauly04, Pflatau, Phaert Kut, Phanly, Plumbago, Prester John, Prototime, Raul654, Rd232, Reston Weeks, Rich Farmbrough, Riemannian Manifolds, Rjwilmsi, Rtol, S, SMC, Sam
Yi, Sbandrews, Sharben, Shawine, Shortby, Skyemoor, Slym Gym, Sphilbrick, Splette, Squiddy, Stanton Hollister, Stenge, Stephan Schulz, Steve Thune, Stone, Strang Butz, Suite Pete, Summer's
Eve, SunCreator, THOZ1000, TMichelle, Tedder, TenOfAllTrades, The Thing That Should Not Be, Themfromspace, Theo Pardilla, Thomas Yeardly, Tillman, Tony Sidaway, Tpbradbury,
Tpk5010, TraustiV, Tress200, Trh653, Trusilver, Twirligig, UBeR, Vsmith, Whowhen, William M. Connolley, Wknight94, Wmckibbin, Woer$, Woood, Yngvadottir, Ystil, Zenwhat, 112
anonymous edits

Effects of climate change on humans  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=427165815  Contributors: A8UDI, AJMcMichael, Arthur Rubin, Atmoz, Biscuittin, Ckatz,
Dawnseeker2000, JLeland123, Logan, Neelix, RDBrown, SMasters, Tide rolls, Vettrock, Wavelength, 34 anonymous edits

Effects of climate change on marine mammals  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425330879  Contributors: Arthur Rubin, AstroHurricane001, Atmoz, CurtisSwain, Diannaa,
Imperial Monarch, John of Reading, Mausy5043, Pcirrus, Slightsmile, Smnilsson, Strenshon, Vasquezvero, 13 anonymous edits

Fisheries and climate change  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425481514  Contributors: Alan Liefting, Anirinel, CambridgeBayWeather, Epipelagic, Kieran Kelleher,
LilHelpa, Malleus Fatuorum, RDBrown, Rjwilmsi, ThatPeskyCommoner, 1 anonymous edits

Retreat of glaciers since 1850  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=427130599  Contributors: Abdallahdjabi, Aearluin, Againme, Alan Liefting, Algkalv, Amaurea, Amir
Tashekian, Anatoly IVANOV, Andrew boardy 97, Andrwsc, Anna Frodesiak, Appraiser, Arthur Rubin, Atmoz, Aude, Avenue, AxelBoldt, BLUE, Begoon, Benhocking, Bettymnz4,
Bloodshedder, Bobblewik, Breathstealer, Brian A Schmidt, Brian0918, Brighterorange, BrokenSphere, Burzmali, CapitalR, Chanlord, Charivari, Chrispknight, CommonsDelinker, Cpp999,
Cracker017, Curps, Cuyaya, Cyde, DJ Clayworth, Danga, Daniel, Daniel Case, Darwinek, Dentren, Dionysios, Dlohcierekim, Doug Bell, Dragons flight, Dschwen, ESkog, Enric Naval, Epbr123,
Er Komandante, Fireaxe888, Fluri, Freakofnurture, Fumitol, Gabriel Kielland, Gamahucheur, Gas3191, Gene Nygaard, Gergyl, Gjones0316, Glenfarclas, Gpetty, Graham87, Gralo, Gwernol,
Hans Adler, Hbdragon88, Hike395, Hmains, Hpaek, Hydrogen Iodide, JFHJr, Jacob elliott, Jamesooders, Jbaranao, Jennifer c martin, Jensbn, Jespinos, Jimspilman, JingaJenga, John, John Hill,
JohnWittle, Jon Wembley, Jonas Poole, Jorfer, Juliancolton, Kariteh, Kbh3rd, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Kingturtle, Kozuch, Kungfuadam, Kuzwa, Lightdarkness, Lightmouse, Ligulem,
Look2See1, Lulu of the Lotus-Eaters, Luokehao, MONGO, MPF, MSchmahl, Magicroach, MalcolmMcDonald, Malo, ManaUser, Master Jay, Master of Puppets, Mattisse, Mav, Mboverload,
MegaHasher, Mentisock, Michael Devore, Mookie25, Mrfebruary, Mvsmith, Nazihunter, Nils Simon, Nurg, Omegamormegil, Orangemarlin, Paul August, Pedrocelli, Peltoms, Penner217, Phil
Bridger, Philip Trueman, Pmj, Polargeo, Prolog, Publicus, Q Canuck, Rambler24, Redthoreau, Rich Farmbrough, Rjwilmsi, RobertG, Rosiestep, RyanEberhart, SEWilco, Sagredo, Sango123,
Sarah crane, Sceptre, Scgtrp, Sdsdsds, Sevenix, Shanbhag.rohan, Shiftmain7, Shythylacine, Sillysailor, Siva1979, Skomorokh, Spangineer, Spellmaster, Spite & Malice, Stemonitis, Stephan
Schulz, Stevage, StuartH, SunCreator, Tamboo, Tamás Kádár, Tarquin Binary, Theda, Thegoodlocust, Timwi, Tony Sidaway, Tony1, Tpbradbury, Umbertoumm, Unused0024, Vivan TRX,
Volcanoguy, Vsmith, Wavelength, Wayward, Wiki alf, William M. Connolley, Wingchi, Wku2m5rr, Woohookitty, Worldtraveller, Wsiegmund, Zaragoza2008, 187 anonymous edits

Extinction risk from global warming  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426132029  Contributors: Andrewjlockley, Arthur Rubin, AstroHurricane001, Atmoz, Bob98133,
Bre8r, Caltas, Cap'nTrade, Ckatz, Diannaa, Emeraude, EncMstr, Eric Kvaalen, Flavius Butkis, GVnayR, Gilliam, I End My Quest, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Merovingian, Peterson24, Polargeo,
Prolog, Pseudo-Richard, Raul654, Reelx09, Rich Farmbrough, Rjwilmsi, Smartse, Splette, Strayson, The Cunctator, Theo Pardilla, Touisiau, UBeR, Vikrant42, Vivliothykarios, Vsmith, William
M. Connolley, 28 anonymous edits

Ozone depletion  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426727177  Contributors: 2D, 2over0, @pple, A8UDI, Aabhasabhi, Academic Challenger, AdjustShift, Adraeus, Aelffin,
Afasmit, Africangenesis, Ahoerstemeier, Aitias, Aknorals, Alan Liefting, Alansohn, Albla.rocks.u.251, Aldaron, Alexius08, Alias Flood, Allstarecho, Alphachimp, Andrewjlockley, Anewpester,
Angilbas, AngryParsley, Angryapathy, AniRaptor2001, Antandrus, Antoni Barau, Aquillion, Arch dude, Aristeo, Arjun01, Art LaPella, Arthur Rubin, AtholM, Atmoz, Aude, Avant Guard,
AxelBoldt, AySz88, Banes, Barcode, Bark, Bart133, Barwick, BatteryIncluded, Bchalck, Belathus, Bernopedia, Bevo, Bfigura's puppy, BillyPreset, Biopresto, Bletch, Blhuppe, Blueboxinthesky,
Bobblewik, Bobo192, Bobrayner, Boing! said Zebedee, BomBom, Bond sam, Bongwarrior, Boredzo, Boy1999, Bramlet Abercrombie, Brett Rooney, Brusegadi, Bryan Derksen, Bunnyhop11,
C.Fred, Cacycle, Calliopejen1, Calltech, Can't sleep, clown will eat me, CanadianLinuxUser, Canderra, Canderson7, Capricorn42, Captain-n00dle, Carcharoth, CarlosPatiño, Charlesdrakew,
ChococatR, Chopbox, Chris G, Chriskid321, Chrislk02, Clawson, Cmichael, CodeWeasel, Cometstyles, Condem, Cos111, Courcelles, Crywalt, Cureden, DMacks, DVD R W, DVdm, Da
monster under your bed, Dachshund, Dafoeberezin3494, Damian Yerrick, Danaman5, Danny, Darkmarine, Dave souza, DavidJ710, Db099221, Dbcraft, Dbenbenn, De728631, DeadEyeArrow,
Decltype, Deepti A, Deglr6328, Delirium, Delldot, Dellium, Delving, Deor, Depu.shona, Dfe6543, Dhburns, Dhochron, Digitalsushi, Dnashort, Doc glasgow, DomenicDenicola, Doseiai2,
Dreadstar, Drmarkweber, Drmies, E Wing, E2eamon, EJVargas, EWS23, Eangelopoulos, Earlypsychosis, Ec5618, Eclecticology, Ed Poor, Ed7654, Edgar181, Edivorce, Eequor, Ejay, Elanor
Rose, Eli Rabett, Elisafenty, Eloquence, Empanda, Energyadonis, Eneyi, Epbr123, Eraserhead1, Eric-Wester, Ericoides, Evolauxia, Excirial, Extransit, Fahq, Faigl.ladislav, Falcorian, Fangjian,
Fartracer, Finavon, Fir0002, Flubbit, Francisco Quiumento, Fred Bauder, Fugazi85, Fumitol, Funandtrvl, Fæ, GVnayR, Gaa47a, Gail, Gaius Cornelius, Gasponia, Gauravph, Ged UK,
Gensanders, Glen, GlennDanielWright, Goffog, Gogo Dodo, Gracenotes, Grafen, Graham87, Grape gum, Gromlakh, Gscshoyru, Guettarda, Gurch, Gwernol, Gzkn, Gzornenplatz, Haham hanuka,
Harel, Harish2k1vet, Helixweb, Heman9, Henry W. Schmitt, Henrybradlow, Heron, Huangdi, Hwang00, Hydrogen Iodide, I Love Pi, II MusLiM HyBRiD II, Iamraticus, Ilikemangos, Immunize,
Imnotminkus, Insanity Incarnate, Intelati, Intentium, Ipatrol, Ixfd64, Iyantha, J.delanoy, JFreeman, JTN, Ja 62, JaGa, Jackfork, Jake Wartenberg, Jan1nad, Jason Patton, Jaxl, Jdorje, Jds975, Jeff
G., Jerios, Jerry, Jhalpern, Jhpennwv, Jjron, JoanneB, Joel7687, John Anderson, John Chamberlain, John D. Croft, John Vandenberg, John of Reading, Jonomacdrones, Jorfer, Julesd,
Juliancolton, Jusdafax, JustAGal, KJS77, Karelj, Karl-Henner, Kartano, Katoa, Kbailey1, Kbk, Kcordina, KelleyCook, Kentholke, KillaLax, King of Hearts, Knotnic, KnowledgeOfSelf, Krang,
Kukini, L'Aquatique, LAX, LOL, La Pianista, LaMenta3, Lachoneus84, LeaveSleaves, Lemmey, Leuko, Lights, Limulus, Lionelbrits, Little Mountain 5, LordGulliverofGalben, Loren.wilton,
Loukinho, Loupeter, Lradrama, Lumidek, Luna Santin, M.nelson, M1k3ypwns, MER-C, Maddie!, Madhero88, Madman, Magioladitis, Magister Mathematicae, Mahanga, Mamiesen, Mandarax,
MapleTree, Marek69, Marysunshine, Matthew Yeager, Mav, MaxEspinho, Maxdowney, Mbc362, Meaningful Username, Meekywiki, Meezaa., Megalodon99, Mendaliv, Mentifisto, Menwith,
Metaxis, Michael Hardy, Michal Nebyla, Midnightcomm, MiguelTremblay, Mike Rosoft, Mike.lifeguard, MikeJones121190, Minghong, Minimac's Clone, Mitrebox, Mjpieters, Moskvax,
Mr.blahblahblah, MrFish, Muu-karhu, Muzza2, Mxn, Mzmadmike, N-Man, NHRHS2010, NHSavage, NakedCelt, Nakon, NawlinWiki, Nergaal, Neutrality, Nick125, Nils Simon, Nivix, Nono64,
Noorosh123, Nopetro, Ntsimp, OhFive, Ohconfucius, Olaf.stetzer, Omegatron, Omicronpersei8, Oxymoron83, PS2pcGAMER, PTSE, Pabix, Pablo-flores, Payalmiss9, Pb30, Peak, Pedro, Pekaje,
Petri Krohn, Pharaoh of the Wizards, PhilMacD, Philip Baird Shearer, Philip Trueman, Piano non troppo, Pinethicket, Piotrus, Platipodium, Plumbago, Poeloq, Poopface1222, Prashanthns,
PresN, PrestonH, Priceless21, PrimeCupEevee, Prospect77, Prowsej, Pstudier, Puchiko, Pöllö, Qiddam, Quarty, Qwe, Qxz, RDBrown, RJASE1, RToffler, RainbowOfLight, Rajah, Rakela,
Random User 937494, Random account 47, RandomStringOfCharacters, Rasteraster, Raven in Orbit, Raymond arritt, Razorflame, Rck314, Reach Out to the Truth, Reaper Eternal, Rebrane,
RedAndr, Rettetast, Riana, Rich Farmbrough, Richard001, Rilak, Rjwilmsi, Rnielsen77, Robbie098, Rofl, Roleplayer, RolfSander, RonCram, Room01, RoyBoy, Rparson, Rpeh, Rrburke, Rror,
SEWilco, SHIMONSHA, SJP, Sagittarian Milky Way, SamEV, Sbandrews, SchfiftyThree, Schwester111, Scil100, Scipius, Sciurinæ, Scott McNay, ScottyBerg, SeaWright, Securiger, Sethward,
Sgkay, Shadowjams, ShakingSpirit, Shalom Yechiel, Shanes, Shenme, Shirik, Shoeofdeath, Shomesh, Shootbamboo, SimonP, Skew-t, SkyWalker, Slakr, Slipnslide01, Sloane, Smartse,
Smithbrenon, Snowolf, Someone Peter, Soumyasch, Spinningspark, Spitfire, Splette, Squeakisfat, Srleffler, Staffwaterboy, Steel, Stemonitis, Stephan Schulz, Stephenb, Stickee, Stone,
Stwalkerster, Style, THEN WHO WAS PHONE?, TaggedJC, Tannin, TeaDrinker, Tegel, Templationist, Tennex, TexasDawg, The Little Internet Kitty, The Thing That Should Not Be, The
undertow, The-G-Unit-Boss, TheIguana, TheRanger, Thierry Caro, Thincat, Think outside the box, Tide rolls, Tim Starling, TimVickers, Timwi, Tiramisoo, Tony Sidaway, Tpbradbury,
Trainspotter, Tresiden, Trfeick, Tusakutusa, U.S.Citizen, Unfocused, Utcursch, V. Szabolcs, Versus22, Vicki Rosenzweig, Vikingviolinist, Vivekparakh, Voxdafox, Vsmith, Wabbit98, Wacki,
WatermelonPotion, Wavelength, Wayne Slam, Wda, Wetman, WikHead, Wiki Raja, Wikichick7, Wikiwopbop, William M. Connolley, Wimt, Wing Nut, Winhunter, Worldwidewaffle,
Wtmitchell, Wyatt915, Yaluen, Yamamoto Ichiro, Yomangan, Yuckfoo, Z10x, Zeroguyaustin, Zvn, Zyuxis, 1449 anonymous edits

Ocean acidification  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=427146197  Contributors: 1exec1, 2marcus, A little mollusk, AlexD, Ambroseisok, Apoolew2o, Argc, Arjuna909, Arthur
Rubin, Awickert, Badagnani, Beland, Bender235, Betaclamp, Bilgin adem, Biscuittin, Brusegadi, CDN99, CanadianLinuxUser, Chendy, Corwin8, Dana boomer, Danacase, Dannie134, David
Woodward, DougsTech, Drrock, Epipelagic, Eric Kvaalen, Exert, Eyrryds, Feministo, Floor Anthoni, Flumstead, Gabbe, Gandydancer, Globec, Gralo, Grsz11, Grzegorz Wysocki, Harel, Hendee,
Hmains, Igiffin, Ioverka, Jack700x, JamesBWatson, Jga49143, Jmarchn, John of Reading, Jorfer, Joseph Solis in Australia, Jrtayloriv, Justinfr, Katafray, Keesiewonder, KimDabelsteinPetersen,
KyleRGiggs, Lemchesvej, Lfstevens, Mac Davis, Mailseth, Make comment, Malkinann, Marshman, Meiyuchang, Menwith, Mifter, Mtarte1, Nigelj, Nils Simon, Nuluru, Oceanic006, Onceler,
Ozean kiel, Pabouk, Pastordavid, Paul H., Pigman, Pinethicket, Pixeltoo, Plumbago, Q Science, Rami radwan, Redthoreau, Reidar a, Rich Farmbrough, Rjwilmsi, Rommel130, Rrburke,
Rutherfordjigsaw, Ryulong, Scrippsnews, Smith609, Sonicdeathmonkey, Sparklehouse, Spiffy sperry, Squiddy, Stevenrl, StradivariusTV, Sumivec, SyntaxError55, THEN WHO WAS PHONE?,
TeaDrinker, Tedmund, Templationist, Tempodivalse, The Cunctator, The-G-Unit-Boss, TimLambert, Tiny Mind, Tomberli, Trusilver, TwistOfCain, Urlborg, Utility Monster, Vincentgonz,
Vlmastra, Vsmith, WalkerMW, Wavelength, Whole in wall, William E Ostrem, Wilsonchas, Windchaser, Wormstrum, Zinjixmaggir, 156 anonymous edits

Effect of climate change on plant biodiversity  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426193819  Contributors: Alan Liefting, Arthur Rubin, AstroHurricane001, Ckatz, D6,
Extra999, Gabbe, Maias, Pmlineditor, RDBrown, Skier Dude, Smartse, Strenshon, SunCreator, Tom4216697, William Avery, 17 anonymous edits

Climate change and poverty  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=416076997  Contributors: AstroHurricane001, Falcon8765, Irfanali14, Slin2264, Wavelength, 1 anonymous
edits
Article Sources and Contributors 600

Runaway climate change  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=423659664  Contributors: Abc-mn-xyz, Ancient Anomaly, Andrewjlockley, Arthur Rubin, AstroHurricane001,
Atmoz, Awickert, Bwilkins, ChyranandChloe, CiteApple, CurtisSwain, Enescot, GirasoleDE, Gobonobo, IanOfNorwich, Id447, Jayron32, JorisvS, Kabril99, Khalil Jabre,
KimDabelsteinPetersen, Kit Kaboodle, Kuhron, LilHelpa, OlEnglish, PeterSymonds, Petter Strandmark, PhilKnight, Polargeo, Prolog, Q Science, Rich Farmbrough, Rjwilmsi, S Marshall,
Sam.carana, Samwell Pinkus, Short Brigade Harvester Boris, Sloane, Squiddy, Thu, UnitedStatesian, Vsmith, William M. Connolley, 12 anonymous edits

Current sea level rise  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=427001833  Contributors: 00666, A. B., Aaronburro, Acroterion, Adambro, Addshore, Alan Liefting, Albert.white,
Algkalv, Altenmann, Andrewjlockley, Anlace, Anna Frodesiak, Antoni Barau, Archibald Fitzchesterfield, Arjuna909, Arthur Rubin, AstroHurricane001, Atmoz, Avb, Awickert, AxelBoldt,
Aznmathwhizz, Bachrach44, Barend, Barticus88, Batpox, Beland, Bergsten, Bkell, Bkwillwm, BlackRival, Blackgrape99, BlueOrb, Bobblewik, Bobo192, Bogey97, Bradjuhasz, Brianga,
Brianlucas, Bryan Derksen, Bsod2, CPWinter, Caltas, Can't sleep, clown will eat me, Canterbury Tail, Captain panda, Cardamon, CardinalDan, CesarB, Cflm001, Chesnok, Chipmunker, Chris S,
ChristopherM, Circeus, Ckatz, Clerks, ClickRick, Coma28, Cortonin, Crozon ned, Crust, CurtisSwain, Cyde, Daniel.Cardenas, DanielCD, DarrenBaker, Davezelenka, David Biddulph,
David.Monniaux, Dawn Bard, Debresser, Delirium, Dianareale, Diderot, DocRuby, DocWatson42, Dragons flight, Dreadstar, Drf5n, Drmarkmulligan, DuendeThumb, Duja, Eberhard Höpfner,
Ed Poor, Edgesused999, Edward, Eeekster, El C, Em0299, Enquire, Enuja, Epbr123, EpicWizard, Epipelagic, Estellnb, EthicsGradient, Evenios, Everyking, FellGleaming, Fg2, Fitzwilliam,
Fogus, Gabriel Kielland, Gaius Cornelius, Garrett1010, Gen. Anxiety, Gene Nygaard, Geologician, George2001hi, Giftlite, Giorgiogp2, GlerkyDestiny, Gmb92, Goeagles4321, Goodranch,
Gralo, Granite07, Green Squares, GregBenson, GregorB, Guinasso, Gunmetal Angel, Gustavb, HamburgerRadio, Hans Erren, HappyInGeneral, Hellvig, HiDrNick, Hibernian,
Hughcharlesparker, Iburntxurxtoast, Ilyanep, Immunize, Irishguy, Itsmine, IvanLanin, J robert j, J.delanoy, Jakezing, JanDeFietser, Jaxl, Jayman019, Jc-S0CO, Jensbn, Jheald, Jimtitus, John,
John Broughton, John of Reading, JonGwynne, Jorfer, Joseph Solis in Australia, Ka Faraq Gatri, Kablammo, Kas0948, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Knuckles, Koavf, Kotra, Kpufferfish, Kramep,
Ksyrie, Kuru, Kurykh, Kylelovesyou, LA2, Lectonar, Len Raymond, Leuliett, Lightmouse, Lights, Ligulem, Loonymonkey, Lot49a, Lycurgus, M1ss1ontomars2k4, MONGO, Maddox1, Maire,
Majorly, Malcolm Farmer, Marco Krohn, MarisaC, Martpol, Matsglj@online.no, Mav, Mbcannell, Mejor Los Indios, Mentifisto, Merrill Stubing, MetaManFromTomorrow, Mglg, Michael
Hardy, Modest Genius, Mr. IP, Mrfebruary, Mtnboardr87, Muenda, Murgatroyd1531, Nagytibi, Narssarssuaq, NawlinWiki, Neutrality, Nick, Nigelj, Nleck, NotAnonymous0, NuclearWarfare,
Nunquam Dormio, OBloodyHell, One Salient Oversight, Ontist, Opelio, OwenX, Ozean kiel, Patrick, Peltoms, Pflatau, Phanly, Phil Boswell, PhilKnight, Philip Trueman, Pholi, Plantsurfer,
Playerhaternumberone, Plumbago, Pointillist, Polargeo, Pterre, Publicus, RDBrown, RJBurkhart, RafaAzevedo, RainbowOfLight, RandomP, Ravichandar84, Ray j, Raymond arritt, Rd232, Reef
Bonanza, Riccardo.fabris, Rich Farmbrough, Richard001, Rjgibb, Rjwilmsi, Robert.Allen, Roentgenium111, Rory096, Rosarinagazo, Rracecarr, Rrburke, Rrryanxzsfd, Rumping, SEWilco,
SPMenefee, Sagredo, Sam Hocevar, Sappe, Schwarzes Nacht, Scottcmu, Securiger, Sentinella, Shalom Yechiel, Shiftchange, Short Brigade Harvester Boris, Shoy, Skapur, Skew-t, Slightsmile,
SlimVirgin, Smaines, Smartpants2009, Smith609, Smkolins, Snowolf, Soap, Some jerk on the Internet, Soonreal, SpaceFlight89, Sphilbrick, Spilla, Ssilvers, Sss333, Starlemusique, Starmon
fighter, Stevey7788, StradivariusTV, Tangent747, Tasty monster, Tbhotch, That Guy, From That Show!, The Cunctator, The Epopt, The Thing That Should Not Be, The consensus of Science,
The sunder king, TheSandmanCometh, Thehelpfulone, Thingg, Think Fast, Tiddly Tom, Timwi, Tinton5, Tizio, Toddst1, Tomasdemul, Tomhalpin, Tommy2010, Tomruen, Tony Sidaway,
Tony1, Tsh, UBeR, Ugajin, Ukexpat, Usedbook, Van helsing, Velella, Vinny Burgoo, Virus1995, Vitousek, Vsmith, WacoJacko, Wavelength, Waynemcdougall, Whosasking, WildWeathel,
William M. Connolley, Wku2m5rr, Woohookitty, Wormstrum, WriterHound, Wsiegmund, Xaxafrad, YardsGreen, Yst, Ziggurat, Zinjixmaggir, Zouave44, Zsinj, 572 anonymous edits

Season creep  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=418499080  Contributors: AManWithNoPlan, Atmoz, Biruitorul, CIS, Dhaluza, Gabriel Kielland, Ibbn, Jwalte04, Ms2ger,
Ohms law, Rjwilmsi, Robbieos88, Wavelength, WikHead, 11 anonymous edits

Shutdown of thermohaline circulation  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=412549987  Contributors: Abe.Froman, Alansohn, AlexD, Andonic, Andrewjlockley, Arthur Rubin,
AstroHurricane001, Bender235, Bumhoolery, Calmer Waters, Captainhigley, Chrisw404, Danger, David Woodward, Del91, Epipelagic, Gene Nygaard, Gralo, Hankwang, Ian T, Janco88, Jeff G.,
JimR, Joseph Solis in Australia, Jrruwe, Knepflerle, Lambiam, Laurips, Leigh, Look2See1, Mac Davis, Mailseth, Menwith, Mindmatrix, Ohconfucius, Oliverjknevitt, Ondewelle, Pflatau,
Pseudo-Richard, RDBrown, Rich Farmbrough, Rossenglish, Ruakh, Sailsbystars, Sambeckwith, Sameboat, Simultaneous, Stephen B Streater, Stevenwagner, The Cunctator, Thorongil CVI,
Tiddly Tom, Ufwuct, Vrinan, Vsmith, Vuo, Wetman, William M. Connolley, Woer$, Zinjixmaggir, 57 anonymous edits

Kyoto Protocol  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=427118098  Contributors: 0zymandias, 101090ABC, 159753, 1dragon, 2over0, A-giau, A. Parrot, A3r0, A8UDI, ABF, ADM,
AOL account, Aaronantrim, Abc518, Abhinav777, Ablative, Academic Challenger, Acastanares, Acegikmo1, Acterbahnmeister, Acu8509, Adamatkin, Adambro, Adashiel, Adballer30,
Addihockey10, Adjoas, Admn404, AdnanSa, Aemurphy, Aerotheque, Aewheeless, Agentbla, Agentscott00, Ahoerstemeier, Aitias, Aknorals, Alaexis, Alai, Alan Liefting, Alan McBeth,
Alansohn, Alasdair, Aldeby, Aldie, Alex.muller, AlexL, AlexiusHoratius, Alexpidgeon, Alexxandros, Alinor, Allenc28, Alokprasad84, Alsandro, Altermike, AmericanCentury21, Ams80,
Amwyll Rwden, Anand Karia, Andareed, Andjam, Andre Engels, Andrewcalvin, Andrewpmk, Andy Marchbanks, Andyp114, Anewpester, Angela, Angst72, Aniras, Anlace, AnnaFrance,
AnnuitSophia, Antandrus, Antonio10neopia, Aperiodic, Apoivre, Arakunem, Arcenciel, ArielGold, Armeria, Arthena, Arthur Rubin, Asabbagh, Asbl, Ashlux, Ashwinr, Asplode, Assaadrazzouk,
Asskikr1001, Aston09mv, Astronautics, Atmoz, AubreyEllenShomo, Aude, Auroranorth, Avoided, Axon, Ayden is cool, Ayla, AzaToth, Backalleyscrapper, BarryTheUnicorn, Bart133,
Bartledan, Baseballnum5, Battoe19, Bbatsell, Bdesham, Bejnar, Beland, Ben1220, Bender235, Bendzh, Benjgibbs, Bezthespaniard, Bgerrits, Bgpaulus, Bhadani, Bicester, Bihco, Bill37212,
Binabik80, Binks, Binksternet, Bistromathic, Bizhaoqi, Bjelleklang, Bkonrad, BlackHades, Blah42, Blobby123456, Blow of Light, Bluezy, Bob Burton, BobG, Bobblewik, Bobo192, Bobw15,
Bogey97, BokicaK, Bongwarrior, Bookofjude, Borateen, Bosniak, Bouncingmolar, BrOnXbOmBr21, Brainsphere, Brandon, Brendan Moody, Brian0918, Brookie, Brougham96, Brusegadi,
Bryan Derksen, Bryancoe, Butros, CO2Neutral, CSumit, Cahk, Caltas, Camcom, Camw, Can't sleep, clown will eat me, Canderson7, Capefeather, Captain Disdain, Carbonconsultant, Carbuncle,
CardinalDan, Catalaalatac, Catgut, Catholic Met, Catskul, Caulde, Cdc, Centrx, Chaddesch, Chanakal, Chapiown, CharlotteWebb, Chensiyuan, Chewy m, Chopchopwhitey, Chovain, Chris 73,
Chris the speller, Chrishmt0423, Christopher Parham, Chuckiesdad, Chwyatt, Chzz, Ciphers, Ckatz, CleanGreen, Clt510, Cmbant, Cn3909, Cnwb, Cobus.w, Cold Light, Colin Kimbrell, ColinJF,
Color probe, Cometstyles, Commandant101, Conversion script, Coreypieper, CorpDan, Correogsk, Cortonin, CorvetteZ51, Cosmic Latte, Courcelles, Cph3992, CreateSomeNoise, Cst17, Curps,
Custodiet ipsos custodes, CyclePat, CydeSwype, DARTH SIDIOUS 2, DDerby, DGaw, DJDonegal, DMG413, DS1953, DVD R W, Dacium, Dalizandii, Dan Pangburn, Dan100, Daniel,
DarkHorizon, Darkildor, Darkverse, Darth Mike, DaveDixon, David Schaich, DavidA, DavidJ710, DavidMSA, Dbenbenn, Dead, DeadEyeArrow, Decrypt3, Deeksha einstien, Deepak,
Deglr6328, Dejvid, Delirium, DelphinidaeZeta, Der Golem, DerBorg, DerHexer, Derek.cashman, Deucalionite, Devahn58, Dharmabum420, Diamondland, Diegusjaimes, Difluoroethene, Digital
paintball, Dimi juve, Dionisiofranca, Discospinster, Dispenser, Dj245, Dlae, Dlohcierekim's sock, Dmhaglund, Donarreiskoffer, Donniewan75, Dorkdork777, DoubleBlue, DougRWms, Dpaulat,
Dr Enviro, Dr. B. R. Lang, Dr. JJ, DrPhweebleschnepter, Dragons flight, Dreadstar, Drewk, Drfreid, Drkdawg, Drumguy8800, Dubc0724, Dukakis, Dusko, Dust Filter, Dycedarg, E Pluribus
Anthony, E Wing, Earl Andrew, Earth, Ed Poor, EdJohnston, Edgar181, Edward, Edward gurry, Einzelheit, Eisnel, ElKevbo, Elfguy, Elian, Ellmist, Eloquence, Emc2, Emilyisawsumeees, Emre
D., Emsherm, Emturan, Ender3057, Enemenemu, Enescot, Enitime, Enjoisk8ingac, Enquire, Enuja, Enviroboy, Epbr123, Ephebi, Epktsang, Equinox137, Eric kennedy, Ericminikel, Eskovitz,
EsperantoStand, Estel, Eteq, Eternalsexy, Etip, Evan Robidoux, Everyking, Evil saltine, Ewawer, Ezeu, FERN EU, FF2010, FWBOarticle, Fanghong, Favian44, Fedallah, Feedyourfeet, Feinoha,
FeloniousMonk, Fic-in, Fitzhugh, Flcelloguy, Flemmong, Flewis, FocalPoint, Fonzy, Fosnez, Fourthords, Fox, Fpaudon, Fraxinus Croat, Frecklefoot, Fredrik, Freeky89, Frip1000, Frogman333,
Frymaster, Fudoreaper, Fvw, GD, GHe, Gabbe, Gael, Gail, Gaius Cornelius, Galahaad, Gardevior, Gdo01, Gekritzl, General Wesc, Geni, GenkiNeko, GerryWolff, Ghostalker, Giftlite, Giggy,
Ginsengbomb, GirasoleDE, Gnuosphere, Gobonobo, Godardesque, Gogo Dodo, GoingBatty, Good Olfactory, Goutham91, Graft, Graham87, Grahamec, Gralo, Great Scott, Green Giant,
GreenReaper, Greenman, GregorB, Grouf, Ground Zero, Grundle2600, Grunt, Gtadoc, Gtstricky, Guaka, Guettarda, Gugilymugily, Gunnar Larsson, Gurch, Gurchzilla, Gwernol, Gyndanya,
Gökhan, H.al-shawaf, Hadal, Hagedis, Haha169, HalfShadow, Haljackey, Hall Monitor, Hamiltonian, Hanzo2050, Harel, Harland1, Harryzilber, Hasan en, Hayabusa future, Headbomb, Hectard,
Hede2000, Helixblue, Helixweb, Helldjinn, Henry Flower, Hilosoph, HistoryBA, Hmains, Hmrox, Hor-he george, House1630, Hrvoje Simic, Hsuiahfsahfuihauif, Hu12, Hullo exclamation mark,
Husond, Hut 8.5, HybridBoy, Hydrogen Iodide, IE, IMpbt, IRP, IWhisky, Ias2008, Icairns, IceKarma, IceUnshattered, Icseaturtles, Iddri, Ideogram, Immunize, Indefatigable, Indosauros,
Informed counsel, Inkjet360, Insanephantom, Int21h, Interscan, Iridescent, Irishguy, Iupolisci, Ixfd64, J Di, J. Matthew Bailey, J.delanoy, JForget, JJIG, JLaTondre, JRR Trollkien, JYolkowski,
JaGa, JackofOz, Jackson744, Jacob Birk, Jacob.vankley, Jadeoshi, Jaganath, Jahiegel, Jake Wartenberg, Jaked122, JamesMLane, Jameycob, JamieS93, Jason Cherniak, Java13690, JavierMC,
Jayanta Sen, Jaybird vt, Jayfr, Jc-S0CO, Jcc1, Jdt2858, Jeandré du Toit, Jeff Bowman, Jehandz, Jellyandjam, JeremyA, JesseGarrett, Jezuit, Jfg284, Jiang, Jimbo Wales, Jinwei1019, Jj137, Jjron,
Jkmccrann, Jodie44, Jon Awbrey, JonGwynne, Jonathan Hall, Jones McAnthony, Jonpin, Joostvandeputte, Jordan Timmins, Jorfer, Jose77, Joseph Solis in Australia, JosephKing, Josh Parris,
JoshG, JoshuaZ, Jovianeye, Joyous!, Jp347, Jpeob, Jsklad, Jumbuck, Junes, Jw94, Jwc58, Jwissick, KVDP, Kaicarver, Kaisershatner, Kameou, Kardrak, Karlhendrikse, Kasaalan, Kbdank71,
Kcordina, Ke4roh, Keilana, KeithB, KeithH, Keithh, Ken Arromdee, Kgashok, Kgrr, Killiondude, Kilrothi, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Kingandpharoh, Kingpin13, KlausH, Klo, Knipper,
KnowledgeOfSelf, Koavf, Kofiannansrevenge, Kokiri, Kornfan71, Kozuch, Kransky, Krich, Kshofu, Kungfuadam, Kunstsalon-wittenberg, Kurykh, Kwamikagami, Kylstoman, L Kensington,
LFaraone, Landon1980, Lathrop1885, LeadSongDog, Lebite, Legend, LeilaniLad, Lejman, Leki, Lemmey, Leondoneit, Levineps, Lexor, Liamscollen, Life of Riley, Light current, Lightmouse,
Ligulem, Likwidshoe, LilHelpa, Lion prince is simba, LittleOldMe, Livedevilslivedevil, LizardJr8, Llort, Lonelydodger, Looxix, Lowellian, Lowerarchy, Lozeldafan, Ltfhenry, Lucid-dream,
Ludalutka, Lumidek, Luna Santin, Luohan, Lyght, MBlume, MDCore, MER-C, MLeamy, MONGO, MPF, MSTCrow, Mac, Maddie!, Madsdk, Magister Mathematicae, Maikeda, Mailer diablo,
Male1979, Malekhanif, Malkinann, Mansoor.siddiqi, Maple546, Marc A. Dubois, Marcg106, Marcika, Marco Krohn, Mariordo, Mark Zinthefer, Martin451, MartinHarper, Martpol, Mary quite
contrary, Master Jay, Master of Puppets, Matilda, Mattbr, Matthew Yeager, Maury Markowitz, Mav, MaxPont, Maxis ftw, McSly, Mda621, Mdw0, Me6620, Meelar, Mendaliv, Merbabu, Mercy,
MetsFan76, Michael Bednarek, Michael T. Richter, Michaelbusch, Miguel, Mike Rosoft, MikeCapone, Mikebar, Mikeblas, Mikenosilly, Million Moments, Mintguy, Miquonranger03, Mira,
Mirv, Missionary, Mjmcb1, Mks86, Mmxx, Mobius27, Moe Epsilon, Moehockey, Monobi, Montrealais, Monty845, Mony, Moontripper, Morwen, Mousy, Movabletype, MoxRox, Mozart2005,
Mpj17, Mr.Z-man, Mralph72, Mrfebruary, Mulad, Mwgillenwater, Myleftbigtoe, Mysdaao, NCD09, NHSavage, NYCJosh, Nandesuka, Nasion, Nat, Nat000, Nateland, Nath1991, Naught101,
Neilc, NerfHerder, Neurolysis, Neuron, Neutrality, Nextmemory16, Nicholas Tan, Nicmila, Nigelj, Nightlight, Nihiltres, Nils Simon, NimbusWeb, Niohe, Niteowlneils, Nkayesmith,
No1lakersfan, Nono64, Nopetro, Nova77, Novastorm, Nsaa, Nschne1, Nufy8, Nukeless, OGGVOB, Odie5533, Ojjy27, Old Moonraker, Olorin28, Onen hag oll, Opelio, Orange Suede Sofa,
Ordinary Person, Oreo Priest, Ot, Outriggr, Ovvldc, Oxymoron83, PTSE, Pablo X, Pahool, Pak21, Palecitrus, Palica, Patstuart, Paul August, Paul Pogonyshev, Paul Weaver, Payneos, Pebbens,
Pembertond, PeregrineAY, Peruvianllama, Peter, Peter Campbell, Peter Ellis, Pflatau, Pgk, Phakedacdc, Pharaoh of the Wizards, Phil webster, Philip Trueman, Pierre.Savignac, PigFlu Oink,
Pillsbur, Pilotguy, Pinkadelica, Pinnecco, Pishogue, Plasma east, Plasticup, Polemarchus, Politicslvr, Polysophia, Ponder, Pop don, PoptartKing, Populus, Porterjoh, Postdlf, Postglock,
Premeditated Chaos, Prester John, Price to Pay, Promethean, Pschemp, PseudoSudo, Psy guy, Puceron89, Puglet, Puissant001, PuzzletChung, Pwd, Quibik, Qxz, Radagast, Ralf Schmelter,
Random Passer-by, Rarelibra, Raven1977, Ravensfire, Ravenswing, RayAYang, Rd232, Rds865, Rdsmith4, Reconsider the static, Redthoreau, Reedy, Regancy42, Renata3, RevolverOcelotX,
RexNL, Rhinokitty, Ribbit, Rich Farmbrough, Rider kabuto, Ridinlow333, Rjtrick, Rjwilmsi, Rmhermen, Robertvan1, Robgregory2302, Robin klein, Robomura, Robth, Robweiller, Rogpyvbc,
Article Sources and Contributors 601

Roleplayer, Romanm, Rory096, RossPatterson, Rossenglish, Rotiro, Rrburke, Rrloomis1, Rtol, Rupertslander, Russellkanning, Ruy Pugliesi, SEWilco, SNIyer12, Sade, Saippuakauppias,
Saksham, Saleems, Salvio giuliano, SamJohnston, Samuel Rosenbaum, SandyGeorgia, Sannse, Sarah, Sarichkaa, Satori, Savidan, Sbandrews, SchuminWeb, Scipius, Sciurinæ, ScottyBerg,
Scroteau96, Seamar31, Seba5618, Semper discens, Senseitaco, Seraphimblade, Shadowjams, Shadowlink1014, Shanel, Shanes, Shimgray, Shinmawa, Shinpah1, Shushruth, Sillybilly,
Sillydragon, Silverback, Singhalawap, Sinmiedoanada, Sinolonghai, Sir Nicholas de Mimsy-Porpington, Sirfrankomac, Siroxo, Sjakkalle, Skidlix, Sky Harbor, Skyemoor, Sloane, Slowking Man,
Sluzzelin, Sm8900, Smith Jones, Smithbrenon, Smitz, Smyth, Snailtree, Snigbrook, Sobolewski, Sodium, Soliloquial, Solitude, Songthen, Spartaz, Spiffy sperry, SpinyNorman, Splash, Spliffy,
Squiddy, Ssolbergj, Sssuuuzzzaaannn, StaticGull, Steel, Stemonitis, Stephan Schulz, Stonewhite, Storm Rider, Struway2, SunCreator, Super cyclist, SuperHamster, Susan Mason, SvenAERTS,
TFCforever, THEN WHO WAS PHONE?, TShilo12, Ta bu shi da yu, Tagishsimon, Tamás Kádár, Tanuki-Dori, Tanvir Ahmmed, Tarquin, Tarret, Tassedethe, Tawker, Taxman, Tboger,
Tcrow777, TeaDrinker, TedE, TehPiGuy, Tellyaddict, Tempest115, Terence, Teryx, That-Vela-Fella, Thatguyflint, The Cunctator, The Ephialtist, The Evil IP address, The Lord Of The Dance,
The Original Juggernautical, The Rambling Man, The Red, The Storm Surfer, The Thing That Should Not Be, The great grape ape is straight out of the know, The last username left was taken,
The lorax, The machine512, TheKMan, TheNewPhobia, Thehelpfulone, Theo Pardilla, Thewikipedian, Thewonderidiot, Thingg, Thiseye, Threlicus, TimR, Timwi, Tiptoety, Titoxd,
Tivedshambo, Tkessler, Tkynerd, Tnxman307, Tokek, Tom harrison, TomJonesIII, Tommy2010, Tompettyfan, Tomtom1540, Tono-bungay, Tony Sidaway, Tony1, Torchwoodwho,
ToughLuckMeadow, Townmouse, Toytoy, Tpbradbury, Travia21, Trekkie4christ, Trevor Bekolay, Tripple^C^, Tristan Schmelcher, Troyeebarua, Trusilver, Tyler, Tzartzam, UBeR, Ubreth,
Ucanlookitup, Uch01, Ugajin, Ulric1313, Uncle Milty, Uranographer, Urdna, Username314, V i s n a v a, VMS Mosaic, Vaibhav.dkm, Vanished 6551232, Vanished user 03, Varco, Vc100,
Velvetsmog, Verloren, Viajero, Vinny Burgoo, Vinodpotter, Violetriga, Voidvector, Vortexrealm, Vsmith, Vulgarurbanism, WJBscribe, Waitsian, Walkeradam, Walton One, Wanzaidi,
Wavelength, Wayward, Werd, Weser, Wesley, West.andrew.g, White Cat, Wiki alf, Wiki-bob2, Wikibofh, Wikipedian1234, Wildstar2501, William M. Connolley, Wimt, Wing Nut, Wisco,
Wisden17, Wixiedoodle, Wizardman, Wizofaus, Wolfman, Wolftengu, Wonglijie, Woohookitty, WookieInHeat, Woood, WpZurp, Wragge, Wrderijke, Wrenelhai, Wtmitchell, Wwoods,
Xdenizen, Xerocs, Xiner, Xosmileback, Xtra, Xue hanyu, YAZASHI, Yamamoto Ichiro, Yandman, Yonatan, Yossiea, Ysangkok, Ytrewqt, ZenSaohu, Zepheus, Zigger, Zinjixmaggir, Zoney,
Zorxd, Zundark, Zxcvbnm, 2956 anonymous edits

2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426875205  Contributors: 00Quick00, 1j1z2, A8UDI, ARUNKUMAR P.R,
Abdel.a.saleh, Afkatk, Ako9000, Alan Liefting, Alansohn, Andrewjlockley, Andrewlp1991, Andycjp, Anewpester, Anonymous0422, Anthony Fok, Arab Hafez, Art LaPella, Arthur Rubin,
Astronomyinertia, Avian, Baguio, Bchalck, Becritical, Bender235, Bouchecl, Bowei Huang 2, BrekekekexKoaxKoax, Byeee, CJCurrie, CR85747, Cesarharada, Chas Butler, Chbook, Chekristo,
Chhajjusandeep, China Dialogue News, Choij, Chris Rocen, Chrism, Ckatz, Cla68, Colipon, Colorandtexture, Conferensum, ConstantlyDrunkRussian, Conti, Courcelles, CurtisSwain,
Cybercobra, Damian Yerrick, Daniel.finnan, Danshil, Dcljr, Debresser, Dfinzer, Dg 372, Dimplemonkey, Dmarquard, Do You Tweet?, Donpelota, Dr.enh, Dthomsen8, Earthlyreason, Easwarno1,
Ehouk1, Elekhh, Enescot, Eric Kvaalen, Euzpr, Evand, Evil saltine, Fanatix, Farmjustice2010, Farras Octara, Fayries, Felipe P, FetchcommsAWB, Fifth Fish Finger, Flatterworld, Francescahb,
Frg 45, FrickleSnitz, Frysun, Gabbe, Gaia5074Q, Gaius Cornelius, Geniac, Ghmyrtle, Ginsengbomb, Gobonobo, Good Olfactory, Goodmanjoon, Grafen, Grundle2600, HamburgerRadio, Hans
Adler, Heb, Heinz Arschmann, Hersfold, Hinotori, Humanist Geek, Hvn0413, Id447, Ipigott, J.delanoy, JB50000, January, Jarry1250, Jfry3, Jimtaip, Joel Ewers, John Hyams, JohnDoe0007,
JohnMarcelo, Jongleur100, Joseph Solis in Australia, JosiahHenderson, Jrissman, Jroy5, Js2081, Jsst67, Julius nb, Kai-Hendrik, Kanags, Kevinmon, KimDabelsteinPetersen, King Zebu,
Kismetdoo, Klcattafi, Koavf, Ksmplusfive, Kwamikagami, Kwiki, Lambiam, LeQuantum, Lilac Soul, Logwea299, Lotusfield, Lowellian, LucAleria, Malikbek, Malljaja, Marcus334, Mareklug,
MaynardClark, Maziotis, McSly, Meco, MegaSloth, MekQuarrie, Mike R, Mikkelskov, Miserlou, Missionary, Mks86, Moeng, Mporter, MrOllie, Mrfebruary, Ms2ger, Muu-karhu, N2e, Natox,
NawlinWiki, NellieBly, NextGeneration, Nick carson, Nigelj, Nishkid64, Nopetro, Nutiketaiel, Oahz, Odercont, Okloster, Palapa, Passionless, Patar knight, Patriziainbhutan, Pechke, Pepo13,
Pete Tina Oh, Phanly, Philip Trueman, Plau, Podex, Ponyo, Prillen, Prodomain, Prolog, Purplepiano, Redthoreau, Reywas92, Rich Farmbrough, Rjwilmsi, Roger.Dudley, Rohitsz, Ronhjones,
Rwxrwxrwx, Ryulong, Sageo, Salix alba, Samar60, Scjessey, Seb az86556, Seniortrend, Sertmann, Sfje030, Signalhead, Skizzik, Slon02, Sm8900, Smallman12q, Smartse, Snailwalker,
SouthBeat, SpikeToronto, Ssolbergj, Star Mississippi, Stephan Schulz, Stepshep, Tabletop, Tamir Birk, Tcncv, Technogreek43, That Guy with the Glasses, The Magnificent Clean-keeper, The
Thing That Should Not Be, The wub, TheGrimReaper NS, Thorseth, Thorwald, Thousandjoy, Thunderbird, Tide rolls, Timrollpickering, Tonicthebrown, Tony Sidaway, Tpbradbury, Treybien,
Typ932, Unscintillating, Vsmith, Wai Hong, Wakeyjamie, Wavelength, Wejer, Welsh pinapple, William M. Connolley, Wjejskenewr, Woood, Yellowdesk, Yilloslime, Ytrottier, Yug, Zarrinnis,
Zazaban, Zekestu, Zello, Zorxd, Zyt, 超越宝宝, 428 anonymous edits

G8 Climate Change Roundtable  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=419524613  Contributors: Good Olfactory, Koavf, Mild Bill Hiccup, R'n'B, Shiftchange, 5 anonymous edits

Fossil-fuel phase-out  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425134245  Contributors: Acalamari, Arthur Rubin, Atmoz, AussieLegend, Avicennasis, Beagel, Belovedfreak,
Bigdottawa, CRGreathouse, Chris the speller, Ckatz, CliffC, Clinchfield, Daniel.Cardenas, Donkaysero, Dougmcdonell, Earthling1956, Esmunro, FCsector1, Gabbe, GirasoleDE, Gobonobo,
GoingBatty, Hmains, Id447, Instrin, Johnfos, Kasaalan, Kelapstick, KimDabelsteinPetersen, LachlanA, LamontCranston, Leightonwalter, Lyrrad0, Mac, Millere08, Mrfebruary, NJA, Nopetro,
Nukeless, Peterlewis, Phanly, Pinethicket, Plazak, Pooet, Prari, Radiojon, Rjwilmsi, Ronhjones, Somoluaun180th, Staplegunther, Sumthingweird, Tassedethe, TeH nOmInAtOr, The Thing That
Should Not Be, Theanphibian, Tillman, Tom 1, Tony Sidaway, Vegaswikian, Wavelength, Welsh, 110 anonymous edits

Emissions trading  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426055567  Contributors: 5 albert square, ALYGREANAN, Academic13, AdjustShift, Adoptatreetoday, Aergoth,
Agrichuck2010, Aitias, Akasaka, Alan Liefting, Alex S, Alias Flood, Allmedia, Allstarecho, Altermike, Andre Engels, Andrewlp1991, Anna Lincoln, AnnuitSophia, Antagonist, Antandrus,
Anyjay, Arthur Rubin, AshtonBenson, Atreklin, Avant Guard, Barek, Barontraders, Beagel, Bearian, Beland, Benjaminmin, Bert McLeod, Bgwhite, Billtubbs, Blood Red Sandman, Bluerasberry,
Bobbo, Bobo192, BomberJoe, Borgx, Bovineone, Boyd Reimer, Brusegadi, Bryan Derksen, Bucephalus, CO2 insanity, Calaguiman, Calmer Waters, Cannaya, Carbonconsultant,
Carbontradewatch, CattleGirl, Cbsimpson, Cguysea, Champben2002, Charlie36r, Chealer, Chendy, Chicco3, Chris Howard, ChrisCarsonThompson, ChrisCork, Chriss.2, Christofurio, Ckatz,
CleanGreen, Closedmouth, Cogniac, Collegiate21, Cometstyles, Corpx, Crunk, CurtisSwain, Cutler, Cyfal, Daniel5127, Danielfolsom, Dariusz Peczek, Darrinstern, DaveDixon, David (davd),
David Eppstein, DavidConrad, Dcoetzee, Dean1970, Deeahbz, Delhi3, Diderot's dreams, Difficulttoremember, Digitat, Dirac66, Dogru144, Doktor Waterhouse, Doug W, Dr. B. R. Lang,
Drbreznjev, Dreadlock86, Duckax, DuncanCharles, Econobuster, Ed Poor, EdH, Edward, Elemesh, Enescot, Entmike, EnvEcon11, Ephebi, Espoo, Everyking, Evitavired, Falstaft, Fat&Happy,
Favonian, FireTown, Foxscully xf, Friendjamin, Fsotrain09, GDW13, Gabbe, Gaius Cornelius, Gobonobo, Gralo, Grundle2600, HAL Capone, Hectorguinness, Hinrik, Hu, Hu12,
Hughcharlesparker, Infinitys.Loving.8, Intern8, JForget, JLMadrigal, JaGa, Jack B108, JayJasper, Jaycook76, Jeffq, Jehandz, Jensbn, JettaMann, Jezmck, John, John D. Croft, John Quiggin,
John254, Johnpseudo, Johnuniq, Jojame, Jokullsolberg, Jorfer, Julius nb, Justinfaulkner, Jwjwj, K1Bond007, Kaisershatner, Karimunjawa, Kasaalan, Keilana, Kgrr, Kieranthomas,
KimDabelsteinPetersen, Kintetsubuffalo, KitaraKae, Knuckles, Koavf, Kozuch, La goutte de pluie, Ld100, Lee Elms, LeilaniLad, Lisel, LittleMidge, LizardJr8, Lowellian, Luigi30, M.nelson,
MCTPA652, MDlam, MER-C, Mac, Manop, Marcus Qwertyus, Mare Griz, MarsmanRom, MartinHarper, Master Jay, Mattiaslasson, Maurreen, MaxInsanity, Mazi, Mbeychok, Menwith, Mervyn
Emrys, Mgillam, Michael Devore, Mick4ER, Ministersw, Mlehtova, Mrfebruary, Mystylplx, N2e, N5iln, Namazu-tron, Nanana ana, Nellie98, Nils Simon, Nopetro, Oitotheworld23,
Oldsnakeeyes, Omnibus, Ouedbirdwatcher, PAR, PLRooks, PaddyBriggs, Pakaraki, Pascalv, Peacefulloflove, PeregrineAY, Peter Campbell, Peter Robinett, Pflatau, Pgan002, Phanly, Philip
Trueman, Piano non troppo, Piratebaron, Plumpurple, Pm67nz, Pmbcomm, Poindexter Propellerhead, Prodego, Prolog, Protonk, Prowsej, Psi, Quadell, RAE, RainbowOfLight, Rd232,
Redthoreau, Reicrs, Remshad, Rich Farmbrough, RichWoodward, Rimmington01, Riyehn, Rjwilmsi, Rmitchell4, RobDe68, Robcri, Robtrob, SJTH, SMC, Sadads, Sanjour, Sarfix5, Scjessey,
Scott Teresi, Scottk, Securiger, Semperf, Seven-7, Sewnmouthsecret, Shadowjams, Shaunus4, Sigi.sonne, Simesa, SimonP, Singhalawap, SiobhanHansa, Skipsievert, SneakyAce, Solarize-UK,
SpaceFlight89, Speciate, Spiffy sperry, Sross (Public Policy), Storm Rider, Strawinthewind, Struthious Bandersnatch, SunCreator, Susan Mason, Sustainablejohn24, SynAsha, Tamás Kádár,
Tbeck99, TeaDrinker, Thatguyflint, The Thing That Should Not Be, Theo Pardilla, ThinkEnemies, Thomas Paine1776, Thumperward, Tide rolls, Timrollpickering, Timwi, Tivedshambo, Toatec,
Tommy2010, Tony Sidaway, Tpbradbury, Treybien, Turian, UWElysim, UWarj8, UWdchung43, UWlizhines, UltraAyla, Urbangarden, Uriel8, Utcursch, Uwkianak, VMS Mosaic, Verhalthur,
Versus22, Vortexrealm, Voyevoda, Vrenator, Vsmith, WWB, WadeSimMiser, Warfreak, Wavelength, Webbbbbbber, Wesha, WikHead, WikiAntPedia, Wikidsoup, Wikiwins, William M.
Connolley, Wizpig64, Woood, Yabbadab, Yintan, Zedh, Zhou Yu, 579 anonymous edits

Efficient energy use  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426630600  Contributors: 12 Noon, Abductive, Alachkarani, Alan Liefting, Alansohn, Alepowers, All Is One,
Ameliawoods, AndreaWelsh, Andy Marchbanks, Aprout, Arpitchauhan100, Avm1, Beetstra, Beland, Billtubbs, Brj3937, Camw, Carlos1122, Cathyqaz, Ccrrccrr, Clairegoodenough, Clemifornia,
Da monster under your bed, Dank, DarkAudit, Darth Panda, David Bangs, Deli nk, Dffgd, Dr. Andrew Jimenez, Dsparakh, ERPinDC, ElizaBarrington, En.lighten unep, EnergyMap, Energywork,
Engineman, Erin Inglish, Erin5454, Escalade, Escapepea, Etip, Explicit, Fcady2007, Gmanez, GoingBatty, Green slash, Ground Zero, Gueneverey, Guenter Sonnenschein, HaeB, Hcw300,
Hemant 17, Hu12, HybridBoy, Icosa, Imjghook, J JMesserly, JHunterJ, Jadedwinter, Jan eissfeldt, Johnfos, Jorfer, Juledownunder, Juliancolton Alternative, Jusdafax, KaySL, Koavf, Kram-bc,
Krj373, Krsmith35, Kubigula, Lafuller, Lawrencekhoo, Liberatus, LilHelpa, Loumclifton, MER-C, MMuzammils, Mac, Maggieryder, Marcelivan, Mdavis42, Mentifisto, Merelake, Mgdurand,
Mion, Mixxxser, Moocha, MoreWithLess, Mr3641, Mredgrove, MsKirie, Muffinon, N5iln, NawlinWiki, Nelson50, NicolasThomas1, Nkaufman, Nopetro, Nukeless, Olmomezger, Oore,
Orangemike, Passionless, Patrickdepinguin, Peterlewis, Petrb, Petrolmaps, Pfeese, Phgao, PhilKnight, PotsyP, Raisedonadiet, Ralph Purtcher, Reisio, Remarkability, Rgatgeeh, Rintojiang,
Rjwilmsi, Ryanuk, Sam130130, Saver123456, Scepticc, SebastianHelm, Shadowjams, Shoumyo.m, Simesa, Sljanovic, SusanRummers, Sustainableengineering, Switzpaw, TeaDrinker,
Thabet202, Tide rolls, TimProof, Tony Sidaway, Toomuchcash, Tpbradbury, Uncle Dick, User A1, Vsmith, Wackywace, Wahuguru21, Wavelength, Welsh, Weston sagle, WikiJaZon,
WikiLaurent, Wwoods, Zhang99, Zodon, 190 anonymous edits

Renewable energy  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426512866  Contributors: -Midorihana-, 119, 12 Noon, 1234d, 16@r, A340-313X, ALargeElk, ANTIcarrot, ATG,
AWeishaupt, Acalamari, Accelas, Acroterion, Acschwim, Aelffin, Ageekgal, Agyle, Ahoerstemeier, Ajnosek, Akraj, Alan Liefting, Alex Ramon, Alexblainelayder, Alfredng, AliveFreeHappy,
Alphachimp, Altermike, American Eagle, Andersneld, Andrew.Ainsworth, AndrewHowse, AndrewLeeson, Andrewa, Andy Marchbanks, Angr, Antandrus, Anthony717, Anthxnysd, Appeltree1,
Aprout, Arnon Chaffin, Arthena, Arthur Rubin, Astral99, Asynchronmaschine, Aude, Avenged Eightfold, Avitohol, Axle 2007, Az1568, Azikala, Azxten, BD2412, BL, Babark 2000, Babban12,
Banes, Barnaby dawson, Bcoste1, Beagel, Beeblebrox, Beetstra, Behun, Beland, Ben MacDui, BenB4, Benjamin Gatti, Betacommand, Betacommand2, Bhargavshivarthy, Biffa, Billyg, Biscito,
Biscuittin, Biógrafo, Bkonrad, Bkwillwm, Blindgoing, Bloodshedder, Bmarkus12, Bobblewik, Bobo192, Bongwarrior, Borkificator, Brad606, Bradley Holt, Brazzouk, Brianhe, Bryan Derksen,
Bubba hotep, Bucketsofg, Buickid, Burntsauce, ByronEngl212, CQJ, Cacophony, Calvingao, CambridgeBayWeather, Can't sleep, clown will eat me, CaptainVindaloo, CasualObserver'48,
Celestra, Chaim Shel, Chairboy, CharlotteWebb, Charvest, Chez, Chopchopwhitey, Chowbok, Chris 73, Chriswaterguy, Chtito, Chzz, Ckatz, ClaudeSB, CoJaBo, Cocosmooth,
CommonsDelinker, Connaire07, Conversion script, Cooljuno411, Cosmo0, Courcelles, Cowan66@hotmail.com, Crowsnest, Crum375, Cybercobra, Cyberevil, Cybrarian88, Cyp, CyrilB, Cyrius,
Article Sources and Contributors 602

D0li0, DJToxygene, DSachan, DVD R W, Dan Pangburn, Dancter, Daniel Collins, Daoi, Darkwind, Dave1g, David A Bozzini, DavorH, DeadEyeArrow, Deepak, Deli nk, Delirium, Delphi234,
Deltabeignet, Dendrolo, Dentren, Derek Ross, DesertAngel, DevastatorIIC, Devon241161, Diamondland, Dillard421, Dinesh rewaria, Dmws, DoYouRenew?, Dodo von den Bergen, Dogears,
Dori, Dougmcdonell, Dougschi, Drblomgren, Dreadstar, Dripp, Duncharris, Dweir, E8, EWS23, Eaffe, Ec5618, Ecarp, Ecgossett, Ecoresearch, Editore99, Edward, Edwy, Eequor, Eggplantpasta,
El C, Electropaedia, Elekhh, Elenseel, ElizabethFong, Ellenmc, Ellywa, Emma9183, Energee5, Engineman, Envirocorrector, Epbr123, Er Komandante, Escientist, Etip, Eugene Kelly, Everyking,
Evgeni Sergeev, Evil saltine, Evolauxia, Extra999, EyeSerene, Eyrian, Ezhuttukari, FNQ, FX Hoffner, Farmercarlos, Farmjustice2010, Farquaadhnchmn, Favonian, Femmina, Femto, Fjmg,
Fklatt, Flatline, FleetfootMike, Flex Flint, Flume, FlyingToaster, Fnagaton, FocalPoint, Fonzy, Foobar, Freakofnurture, Fundy, Funky Monkey, Funnyguyt, Furrykef, Fusion Power, G-Man,
GDonato, Gaijin42, Gaius Cornelius, Gallows Pole, Galoubet, Gamick, Gandydancer, Gardar Rurak, Garfield226, Garrygeorge, Gaucho, Gavoth, Gem4eva, Gene Nygaard, George Church,
Georgeperez, GerryWolff, Ghetsmith, Gholson, Giftlite, Gilgamesh, Ginger Conspiracy, Gjmulder, Glen, Gloy, Gobonobo, Gogo Dodo, Gozar, GraemeL, Gralo, Granitethighs, Grantmidnight,
Grantrowe, Green caterpillar, Green.energy, Green2BGood, Greenman, Greenopedia, Greenrd, Gregalton, Gscshoyru, Gtg204y, Gudeldar, Gwernol, HUB, Haham hanuka, Hajatvrc,
Hallucegenia, Hammer1980, Hanslicht, Hard Raspy Sci, Hard Sin, Hayleyjones77, Headbomb, Henryc4, Henrygb, Heron, Hersfold, Hew, Hfcom, Hiamoduril, Hiddekel, Hitssquad, Hkpawn,
Horses In The Sky, Hu12, Huggsy, Hum richard, HybridBoy, IECBuck, Iain.mcclatchie, Iames, Icairns, Icarus, Id447, IddoGenuth, Ideal4real, Ikarusdanoz, Improbcat, InNuce, Independent
Journalist, Indon, Infimus, Inspector 34, Interestedppl, Iwilcox, J Di, J heisenberg, J.delanoy, JD Lisa, JForget, JRR Trollkien, Jacobmalthouse, Jaknouse, Jameswkb, JamieA, Jbergquist, Jbntj,
JdH, Jdailey67, Jedi 1148, Jehandz, Jenakarthik, Jensbn, JeremyA, Jerry, Jerzy, Jim, JinJian, Jncraton, JoanneB, Joefaust, Joel Russ, JohannHolt, John, John254, JohnOwens, Johndburger,
Johnfos, Johnloch, Johnpauljones2007, Jorfer, Jorge Stolfi, Joshbuddy, Jpeob, Jpers36, Jreconomy, Jserra, Jshapira, Juliancolton, Jusjih, Just plain Bill, Jutulen, Juzhong, Jwanders, JzG, Jóna
Þórunn, KVDP, Karn, Katefan0, Kawika, Kbdank71, Kbh3rd, Keilana, Kenao, Kevinb, Kgrr, Kigoe, Knowledge Seeker, KnowledgeOfSelf, Knuckles, Koassim, Komap, Korath, Kpjas,
Krishyaanis, Kt57, Kummi, Kungfuadam, Kungming2, Kuzaar, Kwsn, L Kensington, LC, LGagnon, Langmore, Lawrencekhoo, LeVoyageur, Leafyplant, Lectonar, Lesqual, Lexor, LiamE, Life
of Riley, LilHelpa, Lionelbrits, LittleDan, Loodog, Lovecz, Luckyluke, Luna Santin, M-72, MER-C, MGTom, Mac, MacGyverMagic, Magnus Manske, Magnusgrafex, Male1979, Malo, Manop,
Manu hegde, Manuel Trujillo Berges, MarcoTolo, Marekmosiewicz, Mariordo, Mark.murphy, Marktj, MarsRover, Materialscientist, Matt0401, Matthew.homola, Matticus78, Mattisse, Mav,
Maximus Rex, Mayooranathan, Mbralchenko, McTavidge, Mdavidson98, Meelar, Mejor Los Indios, Melipalen, Menwith, Meske, Metron4, Michael Devore, Michael Hardy, Michael Van Locke,
Michael4444, Michele123, Micke478, Middlenamefrank, Mierlo, Mike Schiraldi, Mikiemike, Mikkel R. Jakobsen, MilesAgain, Milyherex3, Minimac, Mion, Misterx2000, Mkamensek,
Mkweise, Mm40, Modster, Moneyowl, Monkeyman, Morgan rathbone, Mr Stephen, MrJones, MrPrada, Mrh30, Mrjeff, Mrmoto1, Mrosaclot, Mrshaba, Muenda, Mulad, Muu-karhu, Mwanner,
Myanw, Mykej, NAHID, NJGW, Nadyes, Nakon, Nargis 2008, Natronomonas, NawlinWiki, Neutrality, Nicholiser, Nick Number, NickBush24, NigelR, Nigelj, Nihil novi, Nikai, Nils Simon,
NimbusWeb, Nirogard, Nixeagle, Njoedits, No Guru, Nocturnal Wanderer, Nopetro, Nposs, Nrcprm2026, Nritchey, NuclearEnergy, Nukeh, Nukeless, Nyh, Oatmeal batman, ObjectFarm,
Ohnoitsjamie, Okapi, Oldboltonian, Omarworld87, Omegatron, One Salient Oversight, Ordep, Oscarthecat, Otduff, OverlordQ, OwenBlacker, OwenX, Ownlyanangel, Oxymoron83, PPGMD,
Pabix, Pak21, Pakaran, Paleorthid, Panoptical, Para, Paul1943, Pavel Vozenilek, Pearle, Pentawing, Persian Poet Gal, Peter 79, Peterlewis, Pethr, Pferdkopf, Phanly, Philip Trueman, PinchasC,
Pinethicket, Planders, Pnastu, Poeloq, Postdlf, Preservario, Procrastinator, Prodego, PrometheusX303, Pseudo-Richard, Pstudier, Publicus, Punctilius, QuantumEleven, Qxz, R'son-W, R.E. Freak,
Raeven0, RainbowOfLight, Rajeev764, Ralph Purtcher, Rama, Rama's Arrow, Rampart, Rasmus Faber, Raven4x4x, Rayc, Red-raconteur, RedWolf, Reddi, Rehman, Rememberway, Retaggio,
Rhobite, Rich Farmbrough, RichardF, Richi, Rick Block, Rj, Rjwilmsi, Rlsheehan, Rmhermen, Robert Merkel, Robmoney, RoboAction, Robvanbasten, Rock nj, Rogerb67, Roke, Ronald brak,
Rothery, RoyBoy, Ruber chiken, Rukaribe, Rumping, Ryt, Ryulong, S.Portland, S23678, SEWilco, SGreen, SJP, SWAdair, Sadicarnot78, Saga City, Sagaciousuk, Sam Hocevar, SamSock,
Samwb123, Sanchom, ScAvenger, School20077002, SchuminWeb, ScienceMsG, Scientistnerd, Sciurinæ, SeanMD, Senators, Sewings, Shanes, Shaunm, Shreshth91, Shroopliss, SimDarthMaul,
Simesa, Simon Shek, SimonP, Singularity, Sinned, SiobhanHansa, Sir Nicholas de Mimsy-Porpington, Sir ducsworthy3, Sjakkalle, Skier Dude, Sko1221, Skyemoor, Slarre, Slon02, Slumzy,
SmartGuy, Smeira, Smurrayinchester, Snowolf, Solar panels diy, Solitude, Somepostman, Soumyasch, Sp3000, Spangineer, Spellmaster, Splette, Spowers007, Srleffler, Ssilvers, Steel,
Stefantrinh1991, Stephen B Streater, Stephenb, Sterlingda, SteveLamacq43, Stone, Stormryder, Stormscape, Stovl, Stuartyeates, Sunray, Surfurman123, Susten.biz, Sven42, Swerdnaneb,
Syra987, T-borg, TRWBW, Takkkadox, Tango, Tangotango, Tarquin, Tartine, Tassedethe, Taw, Taxman, Tblakeslee, Tegandrew, Teratornis, Terrace4, TexasAndroid, The Librarian, The
Rambling Man, TheDarkArchon, Theanphibian, Thegingernut102.3 2crfm, Thegreatdr, Thehelpfulone, Theroachman, Thomas Del Monte, Thunderbird2, Thunderstix, Tigershrike, Tikayyan,
Tiles, Tim Ross, Tim1337, Timo Honkasalo, Titoxd, Toll booth, Tommy2010, Tony Corsini, Tony Sidaway, Tony1, Topbanana, Tresiden, Trevor MacInnis, Twang, Tweenk, Tylerwillis, Tzachi
Bar, Tzartzam, UBeR, USMstudent09, Ultramarine, UnrivaledShogun, Utcursch, UtherSRG, Uziw, V8rik, VKing, VT-GBB, VanishedUser314159, Vardion, Vayalir, Vbinfo, Vegaswikian,
Veinor, Ventusa, Vincecate, Vinsci, Viriditas, Vortexrealm, Voyevoda, Vsmith, Vssun, Waggers, Warlordwolf, Wavelength, Webmaster-c, Webmotiva, Whatthree16, Wik, Wiki alf, Wikismells,
Wile E. Heresiarch, William M. Connolley, Wjreece, Wmahan, Woofles, Woohookitty, Woood, WpZurp, Wwoods, Xaliqen, Xaxx, Xiahou, Xionbox, Xiroth, Xnuala, Xydean, Yamaguchi先生,
Yaris678, Yarvin, Yath, Yazazaz, Yellow Ant, Ynhockey, Yomaceo, Yossarian4010, Yoweigh, Yuckfoo, Zen-master, Zer0faults, Zidonuke, Zodon, Zondor, Zonneson, ‫ينام‬, 1672 anonymous
edits

Nuclear energy  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=427026462  Contributors: 01flone, 21655, 5 albert square, A little insignificant, A. di M., ABF, Aarchiba, Acather96,
Addihockey10, Addshore, AdjustShift, AhmadSherif, Ahoerstemeier, Al Wiseman, Alan Liefting, Alansohn, Aleenf1, Alexhard, AlexiusHoratius, Allstarecho, Altenmann, Anclation, Animum,
AntiVan, Arakunem, Arch dude, Aremith, Arjun01, Arkanoid02, Artaxiad, Autocratique, B5Fan2258, B7582, BShiplet, Baa, Beatriz saw, Beetstra, Benjamin Gatti, Bentogoa, Berkut, Berrys70,
Bhadani, Bigbluefish, Bigkahuna321, Black-Velvet, Blanchardb, Blaxthos, Bluemoose, Bobo192, Bobrayner, Boccobrock, Boing! said Zebedee, Brewhaha@edmc.net, Burubuz, Burzum, CALR,
Calmer Waters, Caltas, Calvin 1998, Can't sleep, clown will eat me, CanadianLinuxUser, Captain panda, CardinalDan, Cavenba, Century0, Cflm001, Chaser324, Cheyenne-baby, Chloe666, Chris
G, Chris Mason, Chris the speller, Chrislk02, Cjthellama, Closedmouth, Cometstyles, Conversion script, Courcelles, Cpl Syx, Csab, DJ Clayworth, DSRH, DV8 2XL, DVD R W, Da monster
under your bed, Dalf, Daniel 1992, Daniel5127, Danski14, Darth Panda, Dawn Bard, Dcandeto, DeadEyeArrow, Dekimasu, Demian12358, Deor, Der Falke, DerHexer, Dhp1080, Digresser,
Dinvergod, Discospinster, Dlohcierekim, Doctor CEM, Donarreiskoffer, Dreadstar, DroEsperanto, Dspradau, Dswagg71, Dycedarg, Dylanpickle, Dynaflow, Dysepsion, Dzordzm, ESkog,
Eclectic hippie, Edderso, Edison, Egmontaz, El C, Elockid, Emact, Enr-v, Envirocorrector, Epbr123, Escape Orbit, Excirial, FJPB, Fakoruru, Fan-1967, FastLizard4, Fastfission, Fatpat123,
Fetchcomms, Fieldday-sunday, Finn-Zoltan, Flewis, Flower Priest, Fnlayson, FocalPoint, FourBlades, Fox, Fratersilveran, Freakazoids, Fru1tbat, Fuck 69, Funky Fantom, Furryblobs, GA Energy
Outreach and Communications, GTBacchus, Geoffr, Geologyguy, Giftlite, GilbertoSilvaFan, GlobalFlop, Gogo Dodo, Gotmebegginplease, GraemeL, Gravitan, Gscshoyru, Gurch, Gurchzilla,
HBTJA1, HPaul, HamburgerRadio, Hdt83, Hellman098, HexaChord, Htomfields, Hu, Hu12, ILorbb, Icseaturtles, Ifydydbvgujfuffffffxcf, Ike9898, Immunize, Indiealtphreak, Ipoellet, Iridescent,
Ivrtaric, Ixfd64, J.delanoy, JForget, JWB, Jacob.jose, Jahalus, JamesBWatson, Jaraalbe, Jared Preston, JavierMC, Jeff G., Jester5x5, Jh51681, Jock Boy, Jofool, JohnCD, JohnFromPinckney,
Jrockley, Jusdafax, Just James, JustinBieberx, KFP, Karstenandjason, Katalaveno, Kaushik twin, Keilana, Ketsuekigata, Kevinfr, Kingpin13, Klbhockey1, KnowledgeOfSelf, Knownot, Krellis,
Kukini, Kuru, L33tb0b, Lamro, Latifahphysics, Lcolson, Leafyplant, Lectonar, Leonard^Bloom, Leuko, Librona, Lights, Ligulem, LonelyMarble, Lord of the Pit, Lozeldafan, Lradrama, Luna
Santin, M1ss1ontomars2k4, MECU, MER-C, Mac, Madhero88, Magog the Ogre, Majorly, Marek69, MarkS, Martin451, Masamunecyrus, Maso man, Mastrchf91, Materialscientist, Maxis ftw,
Mazengarbs, Mbell, McSly, Meekywiki, Mego'brien, Mehrunes Dagon, Mejor Los Indios, Meldor, Melsaran, Mentifisto, Mephistophelian, Merdyellow, Merlion444, Mhollinshead, Mikedal,
Mikenorton, Mikeym23, Mitchan, Mnmngb, Moto308, Mschel, Murrdog1013, N419BH, NERIC-Security, NHRHS2010, NPguy, Nancy, NellieBly, Nerango, Nerdykid101, Neverquick,
NewEnglandYankee, Nick, NickW557, Nickrocks100, Nivix, Noisy, Nucengineer, NuclearEnergy, Ohnoitsjamie, Oli Filth, Omegatron, Onebravemonkey, Oxymoron83, PL290, PS2pcGAMER,
Paloma Walker, Paperdays987, Patar knight, Paul August, Pdcook, Peachiezworld, Persian Poet Gal, Philip Trueman, Piano non troppo, Pinethicket, Platinum Eagle, Poeloq, Poodle grapist,
Possum, Prezorski, Princeofchi, Pstudier, Qgil, Quintote, Quinwound, Qxz, Radon210, Rancit, Raptor45, Ray Chason, Reach Out to the Truth, RexNL, Riana, Rich Farmbrough, Richard001,
Richtom80, Ripstick227, Robert K S, Ronhjones, Rorybob, Royalguard11, Rracecarr, Rror, Rvaznyvfgxrvazny, Ryanjunk, S3000, ST47, SU Linguist, Sam Korn, Satori Son, Sceptre,
SchfiftyThree, Schgooda, Scohoust, Sdornan, SebastianHelm, Selket, Sengkang, Shadowjams, Shenme, Shirik, Shrikrishnabhardwaj, Sikkema, Sillybilly, Simesa, Simetrical, Sin-man, Sjakkalle,
SkerHawx, Skier Dude, Snowolf, Soliloquial, Solo1234, Some jerk on the Internet, Spitfire, Srleffler, Staffwaterboy, Stemonitis, Stephan Leclercq, Stephen, Stephenb, Steven Zhang, Stijn
Vermeeren, Stroppolo, Stwalkerster, SuperHamster, THEN WHO WAS PHONE?, Tanweer Morshed, Tatt91011, Tcncv, TenOfAllTrades, Thadius856, Thatguyflint, The Arbiter, The Hybrid,
The Random Editor, The Thing That Should Not Be, TheRanger, Thefuzmixman, Thehelpfulone, Thingg, Tide rolls, Tijo2008, Timotyman, Tnxman307, Tommy2010, TonyTheTiger, TravisTX,
Trelvis, Tresiden, Trevor MacInnis, Turgan, TutterMouse, Ufim, Uncle Dick, Vary, Veinor, Versageek, Versus22, VineetKumar, Vssun, WODUP, WadeSimMiser, Waggers, Wasagab, Wasell,
WelshMatt, Wfisher, Whatanabsolute, Whittaker2007, Wiki alf, Wikibum, WikipedianMarlith, Willtron, Wimt, Woudloper, Wtshymanski, Wwoods, Xdxoxoxmx, Xp54321,
XxXXMULLIGANXXxx, XxsilverxX, Yamamoto Ichiro, Yuckfoo, Zac wise, Zereshk, Zero1328, Zhassan, Zyqqh, Zzuuzz, ‫کشرز‬, 1293 anonymous edits

Carbon capture and storage  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425988594  Contributors: A.Ou, Accuruss, Alberta Energy, AmericasPower, Andreaphill, Andrewjlockley,
AndySimpson, ArnoldReinhold, Arthena, Arthur Frayn, Arunesh85, Ashwinr, Aushulz, Autumninjersey, Awickert, B Carey, Baa, Barnaby dawson, Basicdesign, Bbbici, Beagel, Beetstra, Beland,
Ben Ben, BenAveling, Benhocking, Biddy5637, Billtubbs, Biscuittin, Bkell, Bkwillwm, Blacice, Blainster, Blur068, Bobrayner, Boombaard, Bovineone, BrentRockwood, Brusegadi, Budgeon,
Caerwine, Cbriens, Ccs9935, Cdamama, Cesp0r, Chatvany, Chenxlee, Chimpanz6, Choko11, Chowbok, ChyranandChloe, Cjb1985, Courcelles, CyberK, DARTH SIDIOUS 2, Daemion, Dane
Sorensen, Dashpool, Davemody, Dcmacnut, Defender of Narnia, Demerzel2, DenGer, DerHexer, Deselliers, Djlayton4, Dkastner, Dogtown08, Donnabaskin, Doug Bell, Dr.enh, Ecorahul,
Editsrimati, Edward, Eiland, ElKevbo, Energywonk, Engineman, Environnement2100, Eric76, Espoo, Etip, Europrobe, Feministo, Fieldday-sunday, Freetrashbox, Frodet, Gbdgdkjbgvdhjd756,
Geanixx, Gene Nygaard, GlobalVillageCanberra, Gobonobo, GoingBatty, Gporter1001, Graffoe, Gralo, GreenXman, GregorB, Grundle2600, Hairy Dude, Hauganm, Hooperbloob, Hu12, I Wake
Up Screaming, Jannikkappel, Jdlh, Jeffhoy, Jensbn, Jes5199, Jezmck, Jl1343a, Jncraton, Joe2832, John Nevard, Johnfos, Jonathan.s.kt, Juliand, Kali d taylor, Keenan Pepper,
KimDabelsteinPetersen, Klueless, Koppas, Ktd3241, Lantianer, Liam Skoda, Lightmouse, LilHelpa, LinguisticDemographer, Linkschina, Littlebluemint, Lkruijsw, MER-C, Mais oui!,
Marcairhart, Mardaloop25, Margin1522, May Cause Dizziness, Mbeychok, Mbutts, McCartneyLennonist, Menwith, Merbabu, Mfero, Mhesse, Mikiemike, Mmoneypenny, Moxy, Mplomin,
Mulad, Mullet, NJ, NJGW, Naught101, Nepomuk 3, Nerdacous, NiallMcG, Nitack, Nono64, NubianOracle, Ocean Engineer, Oikovest, Oldboltonian, Olivier, Panumme, Paul Nollen, Pax85,
Pbemployee, Pcassuben, Peter J. Light, Pfctdayelise, Phanly, Physchem, Pinethicket, Professor Ninja, Psinu, Pwhitwor, Qqqwww559, RKorman85, Razorflame, Rd232, Recognizance, Rembecki,
Rich Farmbrough, Richerman, Rico402, Rjwilmsi, Robert Merkel, Robocoder, Sbharris, ScienceJunky, Scottiedawg, Sfj4076, Shadowjams, Shasz, SheridanChaney, Shirifan, SilkTork, Simesa,
Smartse, Some jerk on the Internet, Stbalbach, Stephan Schulz, Stevefish, Stevesandrio, Stlwebs, Stratt3000, Stugilfillan, Sumivec, SummerWithMorons, Surogat, SverreO, Takowl, TastyCakes,
Teratornis, Tetris L, Thadius856, Thingg, ThinkGreen, Thumperward, Tillman, Tokek, Tompen, Tony Sidaway, Twang, Twerges, Uradbean, Uriel8, V8rik, Vrenator, Vskipper, Vsmith,
Wavelength, Welsh, West.andrew.g, Wjkcarlson, Wwf08, YorkeKen, Yqtysadi, Zarks, Zatoichi26, Zinjixmaggir, Камень, 326 anonymous edits
Article Sources and Contributors 603

Geoengineering  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=427168612  Contributors: 5 albert square, Alan Liefting, Alikaalex, Altenmann, Andrewjlockley, Arthur Rubin, Atama,
Atmoz, Atomicgurl00, Aushulz, Autonova, Awickert, Beagel, Bender235, Bhadani, Borgx, Boris Barowski, Brian Everlasting, Bryan Derksen, Chuck Marean, Cybercobra, Daniel J. Leivick,
Dmitriy01, Docu, DonutGuy, Enescot, Farmjustice2010, Flumstead, Gasetus, Gioto, Gob Lofa, GoingBatty, GorillaWarfare, HJ Mitchell, Icairns, Jestus47, John Nissen, Jpe77, JuanFox,
KimDabelsteinPetersen, Kwhilden, LOL, Lickandqui, LilHelpa, Lorast, MINITEK, MrOllie, Nczempin, Nealmcb, Neilrieck, Nepomuk 3, Nigelj, Nopetro, Oangola, Pcirrus2, Pete.irvine, Peterdx,
Pinethicket, Plumbago, Poco a poco, Polargeo, Prakash021, Redthoreau, Rhall28, Rich Farmbrough, Rjwilmsi, Roadcreature, Rotblats09, Scott Illini, Shining.Star, Short Brigade Harvester Boris,
Smallman12q, Solace098, Sphilbrick, Squiddy, Ssilvers, TeH nOmInAtOr, Thatguyflint, Theo Pardilla, ThomasNichols, Tillman, Uncle G, Viriditas, Vsmith, Wavelength, Wetman, WikHead,
Will Beback, William M. Connolley, Winterst, Woohookitty, Yellowjade, Yngvadottir, 133 anonymous edits

Carbon sink  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=424159297  Contributors: .x, AdRock, Adrian J. Hunter, Alan Liefting, Alansohn, Andreaphill, Andrewjlockley, Andrewpmk,
Angela, Anonymous from the 21st century, Arthena, Arthur Rubin, Autumninjersey, Avian, AxelBoldt, BAT2009B, Bachrach44, BeGenderNeutral, Beagel, Beanluc, Beetstra, Beland,
Benhocking, Bergsten, Big Brother 1984, Bobblewik, Born1913, Bread for the ducks, Brockert, Brusegadi, BryceHarrington, Bunnyhop11, Burzmali, Canrocks, Carax, Cassowary, Ccmcgowen,
Chowbok, Chrislk02, Chriswaterguy, Chuck Y, Classassign, Clem Powell, Combuchan, Conversion script, Corpx, D, Daemion, Daniel Collins, Davethebusker, Davewild, David Woodward,
Daycd, Deglr6328, Derim Hunt, Diamondland, Donreed, Doradus, Droll, Duperron, Dysmorodrepanis, E20Ci, EWS23, Ed Poor, Editore99, ElKevbo, Elpincha, Endroit, Endymi0n, Epbr123,
Espoo, FERN EU, Fact idiot, Fcueto, Fluxnet Canada, Fratrep, GABaker, Gaius Cornelius, Gene Nygaard, Geoscientist, Gobonobo, Gomm, Gralo, Green 4 Peace, GregAsche, Gregkaye,
Grosscha, Gskakel, Guettarda, Halogenated, Iain.mcclatchie, Iboucisse, IceCreamAntisocial, J.delanoy, J04n, JHunterJ, JTN, Jaardon, Jcobb, Jensbn, Jimblor, Jkjns, Johnfos, Johnpseudo, Jorfer,
KAM, Karlchwe, Kbk, Kemyou, Keziah, Khalid hassani, Kianwatt, Kils, Kimhuelser, Kingpin13, Kingpomba, Klueless, Kokiri, Lantianer, Leonard G., Lesikar, Lestatdelc, Lightmouse, MPF,
Mahlum, Marcairhart, MarceloB, Martinp23, McSush, Metastabler, Mhesse, Michael Hardy, MikeCapone, Mister Matt, Mookie25, Moonriddengirl, Morrillonline, Mrfebruary, Mwarren us,
Narxysus, Nemu, Nepomuk 3, NickBush24, Nils Simon, Nima Baghaei, Nkoutsikas, Nrcprm2026, Ocean Engineer, Orinoco-w, Paleorthid, Patrickfii, Pcarbonn, Pcgriffith, Pearle, Peter
Campbell, Petrb, Philippe, Pissant, Plugwash, Plumbago, Pne, Pojo, Pro crast in a tor, Proveyrhuman, QuantumEngineer, RDBrown, RPellessier, Radagast83, Random account 47, Randy
Johnston, Raymondwinn, Rd232, RedWolf, RexNL, Rgrizza, Riana, Rich Farmbrough, Rich257, Richard cocks, Rifleman 82, Rjwilmsi, RodaleInstitute, Rolinator, Salsia, Sam Hocevar,
Sanjaykrsrivastava, Saramcgo, Serpens, Sfahey, Sicking, Sillybilly, Simetrical, Splette, Squiddy, SunCreator, Teratornis, Thegoodlocust, Thinking of England, ThreeE, Thue, Tiddly Tom, Tokek,
Tonderai, Triku, Ufwuct, Ultatri, Underpants, Unilli, Unmitigated Success, V8rik, Vicki Rosenzweig, Vortexrealm, Vsmith, WAS 4.250, Watti, Wavelength, Wdk, Wik, Wikiar, Wikiwatcher1,
Will Beback Auto, William M. Connolley, WojPob, Wwoods, Yakushima, Yamamoto Ichiro, Yeomansplowchris1, Yuje, Yvwv, Zarniwoot, 341 anonymous edits

Climate change mitigation scenarios  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=427170124  Contributors: Alan Liefting, Arthur Rubin, Atmoz, Beagel, GirasoleDE, Gobonobo, Istrill,
Johnfos, Mporter, Nick Number, Raul654, Tony Sidaway, Why Other, Woood, Xyize, 57 anonymous edits

Drought tolerance  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=376846216  Contributors: Ginkgo100, Jaguarlaser, Jorfer, MortimerCat, Theo Pardilla, Vidioman, 2 anonymous edits

Irrigation  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=427248701  Contributors: A8UDI, Aarchiba, Abcfox, AdjustShift, Agne27, Ahoerstemeier, Alan Liefting, Aldenan, Alexander
Sokolov, Anders Törlind, Andypie99, AnnaP, Antandrus, Anubhabpal, Aoi, Arakunem, ArmoredPersonel, Ashijain, Aspects, Asterion, Atif.t2, Ayanoa, Aznxfire, Barticus88, Bicycles,
Bigbluefish, Bm gub, Bobblewik, Bobo192, Bongwarrior, Bsadowski1, Burntsauce, Cacophony, Can't sleep, clown will eat me, Cantiorix, Capricorn42, Catgut, Ccknowles, Cerebralpayne,
Chamal N, Ched Davis, Chongkian, Chris 73, ChrisCork, Chriswaterguy, Ckatzberg, Clementina, Closeapple, Cmprince, Colonies Chris, ConradPino, Coyets, Crazy Boris with a red beard,
Crazyhistoryteacher, Cureden, Curtbeckmann, D climacus, DVD R W, DVdm, DaGizza, DanMS, Daniel11, Darwinek, Dashesndots, Davedge, Db099221, Deepakmahajan, Derek Andrews,
Derek Ross, Deribus, Dezen, Dinesh smita, Discospinster, Dj Capricorn, Dlandeck, Doksuri, Dominic, Dominic Marinucci123, Dreadstar, Eclecticology, Ela112, Enviro1, Epbr123, Epiq, Epolk,
Eranjenes2, Erianna, Eric outdoors, EyeSerene, Fanatix, Fanghong, Fast track, FayssalF, Fertirrigacion, Fg2, Finn-Zoltan, Fir0002, Firsfron, Flyhighplato, Fnfd, Fratrep, Freestylefrappe,
GDallimore, GILDog, Gaius Cornelius, Germen, Gifanibnob, Gikü, Gimboid13, Gizmotech, Gmonkeys, Golbez, Greyhood, Gurch, Gurchzilla, H2O, HagayMandel, Hairy Dude,
HamburgerRadio, Hanacy, Hephaestos, Heracles31, Herbertxu, Heron, Higgins1998, Hmains, IGeMiNix, Ice Czar, IdiotSavant, Idleguy, Imaginenow, Imc, ImperfectlyInformed, Iridescent,
Islander, Ixfd64, J.delanoy, JTN, Jackelfive, Jade Rabbit, Jan1nad, Japanese Searobin, Jauhienij, Jbergerot, Jcr412, Jeremyb, JessStryker, JinJian, Jisl, Jj137, Jmh649, Jogloran, John JD Doe,
Johnnysmithgreen123, Joost Wellens, Jorfer, Josh Parris, Jrdioko, Jusdafax, JustAGal, KVDP, Kaiserbutt, Karnivor72, Karol Langner, Katalaveno, Katpatuka, Khthelegend, Kingoomieiii, Kipala,
Knucmo2, Koibeatu, Krash, Lakers, Landroo, Laurenleighb, Lawrencekhoo, LeaveSleaves, Leslie Mateus, Lightdarkness, Lightmouse, Little Mountain 5, Londongull, Longhair, Loren.wilton,
Luna Santin, Mac, Maddie!, Maias, Mar4d, MarcuardY, Marj Tiefert, Marknesbitt, MarsRover, Mattisse, Maurreen, Max Schwarz, Michael93555, Miguelcolino, Mitch Ames, Mlpearc,
Modulatum, Molerat, Monsoon Waves, Montanabw, Moorsmur, Muhammad Mahdi Karim, Mwanner, Mwtoews, Mxn, NCStateME, Nakon, Ncmvocalist, Nealmcb, NellieBly, Nezzadar,
Nihiltres, Nk, Nopetro, Novacatz, OGoncho, Old Moonraker, Onco p53, Orange Suede Sofa, Originalwana, PDH, PJ Geest, PMDrive1061, Paleorthid, Paulkondratuk3194, Pearle, Pelle,
PericlesofAthens, PeteShanosky, Peter Karlsen, Pfctdayelise, Philip Trueman, Philw12, PierreAbbat, Pietrow, Pigman, Pinethicket, Pkstr, Plazak, Pollinator, PrestonH, Priyanath, Prodego,
Promethean, Protonk, Quiddity, R.J.Oosterbaan, RJP, RainbowOfLight, RedWolf, Reinyday, Reisio, Ricardo Carneiro Pires, Rich Farmbrough, Rick Davis, Rjwilmsi, Rmhermen, Royalguard11,
Rshacklefordmt, Rwh86, SDC, SH84, Samgeerts, Sandstein, Saperaud, Schwnj, ScottSteiner, Seraphim, Seth Ilys, Sgagnon, Shanes, Shauni, ShelfSkewed, Slawojarek, Smalljim, Soliloquial,
Solipsist, Spongefrog, Sroyal, Stefan Siebert, Stephen G. Brown, Synchronism, The Fat Man Who Never Came Back, The Thing That Should Not Be, TheRapistPerson, Thorpe, ThrashWeller,
Tide rolls, TimTL, Tooskavian, Toytoy, Tregoweth, Tsavage, Tyler, Ucanlookitup, UkPaolo, Uriah923, Vanished User 1004, Vchorozopoulos, Vegaswikian, Velella, WISo, Waerth, Wardroom,
WarthogDemon, Wavelength, Wcthomson, Weezey, WikHead, Wiki alf, Wiki killer editing, Willking1979, Winemedineme, Womb1669, Woohookitty, Yelloeyes, Yerpo, Yhager, YixilTesiphon,
Yoyomonster, Yuckfoo, Zereshk, Zzuuzz, º¡º, 596 anonymous edits

Rainwater tank  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=424046788  Contributors: Alan Liefting, Aly89, Anlace, Apatomerus, Asitsahu, Bogey97, BrianAsh, Capricorn42,
CardinalDan, Celt Mac Eireann, Circeus, Cwgannon, DARTH SIDIOUS 2, Dabeastro, Danangwilson, Dcmacnut, Deli nk, Deurndewhip, Dkp205w, Dondegroovily, Dr. Sunglasses, Dragonfly
Tanks, Drol, Droverbill, Enviroboy, Epbr123, Felipekovacic, Hamish2k, Hmains, Iridescent, JFreeman, Jeepday, Jorfer, Justined, Justjennifer, KVDP, Kralizec!, Lasarkis, Leviel, Lightmouse,
Liquidjungle, Look2See1, Mac, Mais oui!, Majestic27, Mandarax, Mattisse, Melchoir, MiG, Michitaro, Mondowik, MrOllie, Ncrepair, Otolemur crassicaudatus, Pengo, ROxBo, Raven in Orbit,
Richard Cranston, Ronz, Saber girl08, Shantavira, SilkTork, Smartcat, Spalding, Tastethefruit, TastyPoutine, Teapotgeorge, Teratornis, The Rambling Man, Tobyc75, Topaz the Dog, Tuoreco,
User A1, Vanished User 1004, Vinmax, WereSpielChequers, Wikidsoup, Wilochka, Yoursmile, 102 anonymous edits

Sustainable development  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426383351  Contributors: 194.196.100.xxx, 411.tony, @pple, ABF, Academic Challenger, Acoogan, Addshore,
Admn404, Adriaan, AgentCDE, Aglondon, Ahoerstemeier, Akradecki, Akraj, Alan Liefting, Alanatkisson, Alastair McIntosh, Albertdavis3, Alex Rio Brazil, AlexandrDmitri, Alexsaidani,
Alistair b, Allstarecho, Alphax, Alrick, Altermike, Amh101, Andersabrahamsson, Andres, Andrewpmk, Andy Marchbanks, Antandrus, Anthere, Anubis3, Apiasecka, Argenfels, Arkuat, Arthena,
Arthur Rubin, Ashenai, Beetstra, Behun, Bekemem, Ben MacDui, Benlisquare, Beria, Bhsand, Biker Biker, Biolane, Black Mamba, Bliss53, Bluemosquito, Bobo192, Bonadea, Bongwarrior,
Boothy443, Boyd Reimer, BozMo, Brad Crimbo, Brendan Cosman, Brianatkin, Brianga, Brosi, Brusegadi, Budavari1970, Burlywood, Busy Stubber, Cahillee, Calabraxthis, Calaguiman, Calmer
Waters, Camw, Capricorn42, Cassbeth, Catquas, Catt270, CauliflowerEars, Cewvero, Cfechter, Charithjayanada, Charlietemps, CharonX, Cheddington2001, Chendy, Chenzw, Chopchopwhitey,
ChrisNickson, Christopher Parham, Chriswaterguy, Chuck56, Cjh1k2004, Ckatz, ClaesWallin, Clemifornia, Cobbinma, Colignatus, Conversion script, Count-Dracula, Couposanto, Courcelles,
Crosbiesmith, Cst17, Ctbolt, Cubs Fan, Curtbeckmann, DASonnenfeld, DWaterson, Da monster under your bed, Daniel Collins, Darth Panda, David A. Victor, DavidWBrooks, Db099221,
Dcarpenter, Deor, Discospinster, Dlae, Docboat, Dr.enh, Drgregmartin, Ds13, Duki998, Dungodung, Durova, E Wing, Earthsummit2005, Eastlaw, Ed Poor, EditorOf2011, Edward, Eivind F
Øyangen, El C, Eliz81, Encycl wiki 01, Enviro1, Epbr123, Epipelagic, Erauch, Erianna, Erin Inglish, Escientist, Estly, Ethames, Etip, Euclidedit, EurekaLott, Evanclifthorne, Everyking,
Fayenatic london, Fernagut, Flowanda, Floydman66, FocalPoint, ForwardScotland, FrYGuY, Francium12, FrankTobia, Fruits, Fssca, Funnyguy666666, Gabbe, Gabriel Kielland, Gaius
Cornelius, Gcolive, Geneb1955, Geojacob, Ghandir, Gilliam, Ginsengbomb, GirasoleDE, Gnangarra, Gob Lofa, Gogo Dodo, Goparajurajan, Graham87, Grantrowe, Grblundell, Greenerpastures2,
Greenopedia, Gregalton, Grstain, Gujuguy, Guy M, Gwernol, HJ Mitchell, HRS IAM, HUB, Hakuin, Hamiltha, HappyInGeneral, Harac, Hard Raspy Sci, Hawstom, Hdynes, Hede2000, Henry
Flower, Hephaestos, Heron, Hiddenfromview, Hmeopm, Holly Ashley IIED, Houndhogg, Hschmid, Hu12, Hugo-cs, Hydrazillawik, Ian Pitchford, Insanity Incarnate, Inwind, Iosd, Iothiania,
Iridescent, Isopropyl, IstvanWolf, Ixfd64, J.delanoy, JHunterJ, JYolkowski, Jaknouse, Jandrewc, Javert, Jay Litman, Jbarber, Jcwandemberg, Jejehr, JenLouise, JessBr, Jheaton, Jhecklinger,
Jimbo156, Jj2006, Jleon, John Quiggin, John Reaves, JohnSankey, Johnfos, JonHarder, Jorfer, Joshram, Jrsnbarn, Jrtayloriv, Jubilee007, Jwanders, JzG, Karthickbala, Katoa, Kaushik twin,
Kctucker, Keilana, Kh1160, King of Hearts, Kiore, Kissekatt, Kjell.kuehne, Kks ceser, Knutw, Kozuch, Ksandler, Kyle1278, KyraVixen, L Kensington, LOL, Lasarkis, Leandrod, LeaveSleaves,
Leehach, LeoDV, Leujohn, Levineps, Lightmouse, Lispp, Livingston.28, Locospotter, Lokionly, Look2See1, Lop.dong, Lotje, Lredman, Lunchscale, Lupo, MER-C, MGTom, Mac, Magister
Mathematicae, Malcolmxl5, Marie enviro, Marjolaine11, Marmora78, Martinscherfler, Mat2010tam, Mbenzdabest, Mc4932, Mcginnly, Mdd, MercBenz, Mereda, Mervyn Emrys, Michael Hardy,
Mietchen, Mike Rosoft, MikeCapone, Mikhailovich, MikkyGay, Millere08, Millsdavid, MissEleven123, Mkill, Mononomic, Mr3641, MrOllie, Mushroom, Myanw, Mydoorisopen,
Mygerardromance, Mytilus, NJGW, NaBUru38, Naomasaemiko, Nastradinov, NawlinWiki, Nay the snake, Ncmartin, Ncmvocalist, Neopanora, Neutrality, Newbyguesses, Nick carson,
NickGBSOD, NickelShoe, Nihiltres, Nishantjr, Nom DeGuerre, Nomasonsinmywhitehouse, Nopetro, Nposs, Nubiatech, Nuttycoconut, Nydhogg, OStewart, Octane, Octopus-Hands, Ohdear15,
Ohnoitsjamie, Oikoschile, On2Leggs, Oo64eva, Optimum Population Trust, Orange Suede Sofa, Oroszlan69, Otwguy, Owen, Padmatara, Paleorthid, PatrickSauncy, Paullb, Pekayer11,
Peterson.Amy.E, Pharaoh of the Wizards, Philip Trueman, Philipum, Piltakva, Pinethicket, Pitan, Planeta, Plebiscites, Pm master, PokeYourHeadOff, Princess Tiswas, Pro bug catcher,
Proginoskes, RainbowOfLight, Rami7896, Raven4x4x, Rd232, Retaggio, Rettetast, Rich Farmbrough, Richard001, RichardF, Rintojiang, Rjholmer, Rjwilmsi, Robtrob, Rodmadar, Rofocale2384,
Ronhjones, Ronz, RookZERO, Rrburke, Rstafursky, RubyLucario, Ryan Roos, RyanGerbil10, SJK, SSDconsult, Sabeen2331, Salvio giuliano, Sam Korn, Sam42, Sardanaphalus, Sbridge,
SchuminWeb, Scottiedawg, Seaphoto, Sfilmsactiwo, Shadowjams, ShaunMacPherson, Shell Kinney, Shenbrood, Shoreranger, Shoujun, SietskeEN, Silverxxx, SiobhanHansa, Sir schultz, Sirflexi,
Sixfifteen, Skier Dude, Skipsievert, Skyemoor, Smarienau, Smarturban, Snowmanmelting, Spellern, Starlayk, StaticGull, StaticVision, Steve met, Steven J. Anderson, Storm Rider, Sulkworm,
Sunray, Sustain123, Svick, Tarndt, Tathanasiou, Taticchipaolo, Taw, Temanning, The Cunctator, The Sunshine Man, The Thing That Should Not Be, The Way, TheEgyptian, Thebogusman,
Thinktosustain, Thunderstix, Time4this, Tkn20, Tobyabgreen, Tommy2010, Tresiden, Trilliumz, Triplestop, Triwbe, Tvinson, Ukexpat, Uncle G, Univer, User123new, Utcursch, V.B.,
VandalFixman, Vanisheduser12345, Vasman, Vgranucci, Viajero, Viriditas, Vortexrealm, WJBscribe, Wavelength, WaysToEscape, WikHead, Wikieditor06, William Avery, Willking1979,
Willoogy, Wipala, Wisdawn, Woohookitty, Xcentaur, Xochipilli BE, Yamamoto Ichiro, Z.E.R.O., Zodon, ‫ينام‬, 960 anonymous edits
Article Sources and Contributors 604

Weather control  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=420992242  Contributors: ABSZero, Academic Challenger, Acather96, Airodyssey, Alansohn, Alexf, Alexjohnc3,
Allstar86, Altzinn, Anagram, Anarchia, Andrewjlockley, Anna Frodesiak, Arslan-San, ArtistScientist, Atled, Beeblebrox, Beegee7730, Beland, Benabik, Billy Hathorn, Binksternet, Bullzeye,
CMBJ, CaliforniaAliBaba, Charles Matthews, Chendy, Chovin, Chris the speller, ChrisMP1, Chriscombs, Cimon Avaro, Claritas, Complete Truth, CovenantD, Cxk929, Cybercobra, DRGrim,
DanMS, Delta107, Denelson83, Discordanian, Drat, Dudshan, Dudtz, Duganovales, EagleFan, Echoofdarkness, Ed Fitzgerald, Edward, Eldred, Elf, Emersoni, EncMstr, Erudnetti, Euchiasmus,
Eustachius, Family Guy Guy, Fastilysock, Fratrep, Fredler Brave, Furrybeagle, Gabbe, Gloriamarie, Gogo Dodo, GoingBatty, Grafen, Gun Powder Ma, H Debussy-Jones, HamburgerRadio,
Haoie, Heavenearth, IKato, Ihcoyc, Ingventor, InvaderJim42, Iridescent, Ithatch, Ixfd64, J 1982, J.delanoy, JForget, JHFTC, JJB, JackpotDen, Jaranda, Jay Bohn, Jc3s5h, Jeresig, Jj137, Jncraton,
John Broughton, JohnSmart, Jorfer, Joseph Solis in Australia, Jozef.solc, Jrockley, Juliancolton, Jwsmith708, KNewman, Kaihsu, Kairologic, Kazvorpal, Kerowyn, Kevrisrules, La goutte de
pluie, Leeroy4000, LilHelpa, LookNorth, Luatha, Magioladitis, Majorly, Mardus, Mariegriffiths, Marquitose, Matthew Yeager, Mboverload, McGeddon, Mdwyer, Miami33139, Michael3456,
MinisterForBadTimes, Morhange2, NES Wii, Nat Krause, Natalie Erin, Noclevername, Nohomers48, Olegwiki, Onebravemonkey, Owen, Paulbrock, Pcirrus2, Pearle, Pedant, Pierre cb,
Primalchaos, Purplefeltangel, RCX, Rd232, Reconsider the static, Recury, Reddi, ResearchRave, Rjwilmsi, Robina Fox, Rojasyesid, Roscogre, RoyBoy, Runningonbrains, RxS, Ryan4314, S
Roper, SEWilco, Sceptre, Scorpionman, Sesshomaru, Shaddack, Shawnp2008, Sherool, Shoeofdeath, Sintaku, Sophysduckling, Sud Ram, Supertask, T h williams, T-borg, The Thing That Should
Not Be, TheCorpulent1, Theda, Thorenn, Thumperward, Timneu22, TruthHappens, Tyrhinis, UltimatePyro, UtherSRG, Vicki Rosenzweig, Victorgrigas, Viriditas, W3bbo, WikipediaClown,
WindRunner, Wingover, Worldwidewaffle, Yuriybrisk, Zagalejo, Zhuuu, Zoicon5, 311 anonymous edits

Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425459208  Contributors: Alan Liefting, Arthur Rubin, Autopilot, Bikeable, Brusegadi, Ckatz,
Climateneutral, Coastwise, Commander98, Dburdenbates, Energybeing, Envirocorrector, Escientist, Fillinchen, Gabbe, Gralo, Hu12, Id447, Int09jda, Johnfos, Led zec, Mak Thorpe, N p holmes,
Nallan, Nanasusie, Ohnoitsjamie, Orangehues, Paul Spanovich, Prester John, Raul654, Rich Farmbrough, Rtol, Sgsg, Shawine, Stephan Schulz, Strenshon, Tang23, TenOfAllTrades, The Thing
That Should Not Be, Thunderbird2, UBeR, USRegPatOff, Vsmith, Wavelength, Will Beback, William M. Connolley, Woer$, Yvolution, Zenwhat, 25 anonymous edits

Index of climate change articles  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=424122335  Contributors: Alan Liefting, Andrewjlockley, Arthur Rubin, Atama, Barrylb, ChyranandChloe,
Coastwise, CurtisSwain, EastTN, Energybeing, Estellnb, Flipper24, Gobonobo, Hmains, Hu, Id447, Jaymax, Jorfer, Kgrr, Lemchesvej, Lennoxman2, Mercurywoodrose, Michael H 34,
Mrfebruary, Nopetro, NuclearWarfare, Oren0, Prolog, Reefdiver, SBuzzelli, The Transhumanist, Theo Pardilla, Thepisky, Tillman, Tom4216697, Tomasdemul, Tony Sidaway, Trilobitealive,
UBeR, Veteran0101, Vettrock, Vgy7ujm, Voxii, Vsmith, Wavelength, William M. Connolley, 14 anonymous edits
Image Sources, Licenses and Contributors 605

Image Sources, Licenses and Contributors


Image:Global_Temperature_Anomaly_1880-2010_(Fig.A).gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Global_Temperature_Anomaly_1880-2010_(Fig.A).gif  License: Public
Domain  Contributors: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Image:Satellite Temperatures.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Satellite_Temperatures.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Bender235, Dragons flight, Lantze,
Marcus Qwertyus, Pflatau, Pmsyyz, WikipediaMaster, 5 anonymous edits
Image:GISS temperature 2000-09 lrg.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:GISS_temperature_2000-09_lrg.png  License: Public Domain  Contributors: NASA images
by Robert Simmon, based on data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
Image:GISS temperature palette.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:GISS_temperature_palette.png  License: Public Domain  Contributors: NASA images by Robert
Simmon, based on data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
File:2000 Year Temperature Comparison.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png  License: unknown  Contributors: J.H.
Oerlemans
Image:Greenhouse Effect.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Greenhouse_Effect.svg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: User:Rugby471
Image:Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide-en.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide-en.svg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0
 Contributors: User:Sémhur
File:ShipTracks MODIS 2005may11.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:ShipTracks_MODIS_2005may11.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Liam Gumley,
Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison
File:Solar-cycle-data.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Solar-cycle-data.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Beland, Dragons flight, Lampman, Lissajous, Mgc8,
Nils Simon, WikipediaMaster, Xenoforme, Xiong Chiamiov, 3 anonymous edits
Image:Global Warming Predictions.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Global_Warming_Predictions.png  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors:
Bastique, Dragons flight, Enescot, Er Komandante, JacobCampbell, Kallerna, MER-C, Para, Pflatau, 13 anonymous edits
Image:Global Warming Predictions Map.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Global_Warming_Predictions_Map.jpg  License: unknown  Contributors: 555, Adi,
AstroImager001, Dilaudid, Dragons flight, Infrogmation, Jrtayloriv, LX, Pflatau, Toony, 10 anonymous edits
File:Glacier Mass Balance.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Glacier_Mass_Balance.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Autopilot, Bender235, Dgroseth, Dragons
flight, Gaf.arq, Glenn, Nils Simon, W!B:, 1 anonymous edits
Image:GHG per capita 2005.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:GHG_per_capita_2005.png  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors:
User:Sailsbystars
Image:GHG by country 2005.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:GHG_by_country_2005.png  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors:
User:Sailsbystars
Image:Instrumental Temperature Record (NASA).svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Instrumental_Temperature_Record_(NASA).svg  License: GNU Free
Documentation License  Contributors: User:Autopilot
Image:GHCN Temperature Stations.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:GHCN_Temperature_Stations.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Alphatyger, Ciaurlec,
Dragons flight, Nils Simon, 3 anonymous edits
Image:Short Instrumental Temperature Record.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Short_Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png  License: unknown  Contributors:
Autopilot, Dragons flight, Joseolgon, Liftarn, Rémih, Saperaud, WikipediaMaster, 3 anonymous edits
File:NCDC temperature trend.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:NCDC_temperature_trend.png  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors:
User:Giorgiogp2
File:NOAA_Land.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:NOAA_Land.svg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors: User:Giorgiogp2
File:NOAA_Ocean.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:NOAA_Ocean.svg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors: User:Giorgiogp2
File:NOAA Land Ocean temperature anomaly.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:NOAA_Land_Ocean_temperature_anomaly.png  License: GNU Free
Documentation License  Contributors: User:Giorgiogp2
Image:1000 Year Temperature Comparison.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:1000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png  License: unknown  Contributors: P.D.
Jones and A. Moberg
Image:Instrumental Temperature Record.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Instrumental_Temperature_Record.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Jak
Image:Skálholt-Karte.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Skálholt-Karte.png  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: User:Hopfenpflücker
Image:Grimspound circle 1.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Grimspound_circle_1.jpg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: User:Herbythyme
Image:The Frozen Thames 1677.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:The_Frozen_Thames_1677.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Infrogmation, Man vyi,
Mattes, Olborne, Skipjack
Image:Hvalsey.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Hvalsey.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Algkalv, Ascánder, Blacklake, Jarekt, Lena Dyrdal Andersen,
Man vyi, Petri Krohn, Père Igor, Valentinian, 1 anonymous edits
File:All palaeotemps.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:All_palaeotemps.png  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: Fred J, Glen Fergus, Glenn,
Hgrobe, Para, 3 anonymous edits
File:OxygenLevel-1000ma.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:OxygenLevel-1000ma.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Rursus, User:WolfmanSF
Image:Phanerozoic Carbon Dioxide.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Phanerozoic_Carbon_Dioxide.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Ciaurlec, Dragons flight,
Glenn, Merikanto, Pflatau, Polentario, Waldir, 2 anonymous edits
Image:Phanerozoic Climate Change.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Phanerozoic_Climate_Change.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Royer, Dana L., Robert
A. Berner, Isabel P. Montañez, Neil J. Tabor, and David J. Beerling
Image:All palaeotemps.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:All_palaeotemps.png  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: Fred J, Glen Fergus, Glenn,
Hgrobe, Para, 3 anonymous edits
Image:Vostok Petit data.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Vostok_Petit_data.svg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: User:Autopilot
File:Paleo-cosmic flux.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Paleo-cosmic_flux.svg  License: unknown  Contributors: Polentario
File:EthanolPetrol.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:EthanolPetrol.jpg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: Proximo.xv, Zephynelsson Von
Image:Soybeanbus.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Soybeanbus.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Original uploader was Vincecate at en.wikipedia
File:Sao Paulo ethanol pump 04 2008 74 zoom.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Sao_Paulo_ethanol_pump_04_2008_74_zoom.jpg  License: Creative Commons
Attribution 3.0  Contributors: User:Mariordo
Image:Diesel prices.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Diesel_prices.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 2.5  Contributors: AnRo0002, Frank-m,
Morio, Rnt20
Image:Used vegetable cooking oil.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Used_vegetable_cooking_oil.png  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Original uploader was
Knightmb at en.wikipedia
Image:Biogas pipes.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Biogas_pipes.JPG  License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0  Contributors: Original uploader was
Vortexrealm at en.wikipedia
Image:LWRadiationBudget.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:LWRadiationBudget.gif  License: unknown  Contributors: OK-FIRST Project, Oklahoma Climatological
Survey
Image:57911main Earth Energy Budget.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:57911main_Earth_Energy_Budget.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: NASA
Image:Breakdown of the incoming solar energy.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Breakdown_of_the_incoming_solar_energy.svg  License: GNU Free
Documentation License  Contributors: Original uploader was User A1 at en.wikipedia
Image:Erbe.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Erbe.gif  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Bob Stein - VisiBone
Image Sources, Licenses and Contributors 606

Image:Kippandzonen-CNR1.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Kippandzonen-CNR1.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: M.veenstra


Image:Coal.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Coal.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Furins, Ilyaroz, JackyR, Kluka, Man vyi, Saperaud, 2 anonymous edits
File:Gulf Offshore Platform.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Gulf_Offshore_Platform.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 2.0  Contributors: Chad Teer from
Coquitlam, Canada
File:Grangemouth04nov06.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Grangemouth04nov06.jpg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors:
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:John
Image:Global Carbon Emissions.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Global_Carbon_Emissions.svg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors:
User:Autopilot, User:Mak Thorpe
File:Carbon Dioxide 400kyr.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Cory, Dragons flight, Glenn, Jan
Arkesteijn, Kozuch, MPF, Pflatau, 13 anonymous edits
Image:Pollution over east China.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Pollution_over_east_China.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Original uploader was Kgrr
at en.wikipedia
Image:Lightmatter Golden gate bridge.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Lightmatter_Golden_gate_bridge.jpg  License: unknown  Contributors: By Aaron Logan
Image:Sfc.contrail.1.26.01.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Sfc.contrail.1.26.01.JPG  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Hydrargyrum, Liftarn, Saperaud,
Skippan, Xenoforme, 1 anonymous edits
Image:Aerosol dimming.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Aerosol_dimming.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Original uploader was Kgrr at en.wikipedia
Image:Climate Change Attribution.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Climate_Change_Attribution.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Chris Capoccia, Dragons
flight, Liftarn, Pflatau, 5 anonymous edits
Image:Solar Spectrum.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Solar_Spectrum.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Adoniscik, Bender235, Dragons flight, Josette,
Nick84, Pieter Kuiper, Trijnstel, Túrelio, 5 anonymous edits
File:Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide-en.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide-en.svg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0
 Contributors: User:Sémhur
Image:RHSGlasshouse.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:RHSGlasshouse.JPG  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 2.5  Contributors: Mark Boyce
File:The green house effect.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:The_green_house_effect.svg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors:
User:ZooFari
File:Atmospheric Transmission.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Atmospheric_Transmission.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Cepheiden, Christophe.Finot,
Diwas, Dragons flight, Josette, Manuelt15, Mdd, Nagy, Santosga, Spacebirdy, WikipediaMaster, 4 anonymous edits
Image:Carbon History and Flux Rev.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Carbon_History_and_Flux_Rev.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Bignose, Dragons
flight, Josette, Leyo, Liftarn, Nagy, Santosga, Stephan Schulz, 11 anonymous edits
Image:Greenhouse Gas by Sector.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Greenhouse_Gas_by_Sector.png  License: unknown  Contributors: w:Dragons flightRobert A.
Rohde
Image:GHG per capita 2000.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:GHG_per_capita_2000.svg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: User:Vinny
Burgoo
Image:BAMS climate assess boulder water vapor 2002.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:BAMS_climate_assess_boulder_water_vapor_2002.png  License: unknown
 Contributors: Bignose, Q Science, Toomuchcash, WikipediaMaster
Image:CO2 increase rate.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:CO2_increase_rate.png  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: New Image Uploader
929 (talk). Original uploader was New Image Uploader 929 at en.wikipedia
Image:Major greenhouse gas trends.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Major_greenhouse_gas_trends.png  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Ancient Anomaly,
Bignose, DouglasGreen, Glenn, Joolz
Image:GHG intensity 2000.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:GHG_intensity_2000.svg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: User:Vinny Burgoo
Image:CO2 responsibility 1950-2000.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:CO2_responsibility_1950-2000.svg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors:
User:Vinny Burgoo
Image:Mopitt first year carbon monoxide.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Mopitt_first_year_carbon_monoxide.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Bignose,
ChVA, Duesentrieb, Itu, Lamiot
Image:GHG per capita 2000 no LUC.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:GHG_per_capita_2000_no_LUC.svg  License: GNU Free Documentation License
 Contributors: User:Vinny Burgoo
File:Radiative-forcings.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Radiative-forcings.svg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: This figure was produced
by Leland McInnes (Radiative-forcings.svg) using gnuplot and Inkscape and is licensed under the GFDL. All data is from publicly available sources.
File:ModtranRadiativeForcingDoubleCO2.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:ModtranRadiativeForcingDoubleCO2.png  License: Creative Commons
Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors: User:Incredio
File:ModtranRadiativeForcing8xCH4.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:ModtranRadiativeForcing8xCH4.png  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0
 Contributors: User:Incredio
Image:HeatIsland Kanto en.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:HeatIsland_Kanto_en.png  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: User:Cory
Image:newyork heat island.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Newyork_heat_island.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Original uploader was Ryanjo at
en.wikipedia
Image:Atlanta thermal.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Atlanta_thermal.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Original uploader was Ryanjo at en.wikipedia
Image:NASA SLC Urban Heat Island Effect Roof.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:NASA_SLC_Urban_Heat_Island_Effect_Roof.jpg  License: Public Domain
 Contributors: NASA
Image:20080708 Chicago City Hall Green Roof.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:20080708_Chicago_City_Hall_Green_Roof.JPG  License: GNU Free
Documentation License  Contributors: TonyTheTiger
Image:UHI profile.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:UHI_profile.gif  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Flappiefh, Peachey88, Pierre cb, Santosga, Skyodyssey,
WikipediaMaster
File:Albedo-e hg.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Albedo-e_hg.svg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 2.5  Contributors: User:Hgrobe
File:Ceres 2003 2004 clear sky total sky albedo.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Ceres_2003_2004_clear_sky_total_sky_albedo.png  License: Creative Commons
Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors: User:Giorgiogp2
File:water reflectivity.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Water_reflectivity.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Alvin-cs, Dan Pangburn, GianniG46, Kelly
File:Holocene Temperature Variations.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Lea, D.W., D.K.
Pak, L.C. Peterson, and K.A. Hughen, KA Hughen, MGL Baillie, E Bard, A Bayliss, JW Beck, C Bertrand, PG Blackwell, CE Buck, G Burr, KB Cutler, PE Damon, RL Edwards, RG Fairbanks,
M Friedrich, TP Guilderson, B Kromer, FG McCormac, S Manning, C Bronk Ramsey, PJ Reimer, RW Reimer, S Remmele, JR Southon, M Stuiver, S Talamo, FW Taylor, J van der Plicht, and
CE Weyhenmeyer, P.D. Jones and A. Moberg
Image:Atmospheric CO2 with glaciers cycles.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Atmospheric_CO2_with_glaciers_cycles.gif  License: Public Domain  Contributors:
Tom Ruen
Image:Global Cooling Map.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Global_Cooling_Map.png  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: Reynolds, R.W.,
N.A. Rayner, T.M. Smith, D.C. Stokes, and W. Wang
Image:Global cooling.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Global_cooling.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: NAS
Image:Amo timeseries 1856-present.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Amo_timeseries_1856-present.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Rosentod
Image:Atlantic ace timeseries 1850-2007.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Atlantic_ace_timeseries_1850-2007.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Chris
Landsea, NOAA
Image Sources, Licenses and Contributors 607

File:1997 El Nino TOPEX.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:1997_El_Nino_TOPEX.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Maddox1, Mircea, Telim tor
File:MJO 5-day running mean through 1 Oct 2006.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:MJO_5-day_running_mean_through_1_Oct_2006.png  License: Public Domain
 Contributors: NOAA
File:Enso normal.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Enso_normal.png  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Bender235, Tano4595, Wikier
File:Enso elnino.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Enso_elnino.png  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Bender235, Shizhao, Tano4595, Wikier
File:Enso lanina.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Enso_lanina.png  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Bender235, Nils Simon, Tano4595, Wikier
File:El Nino regional impacts.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:El_Nino_regional_impacts.gif  License: Public Domain  Contributors: NOAA
File:Sea Surface Temperature - November 2007.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Sea_Surface_Temperature_-_November_2007.jpg  License: Public Domain
 Contributors: NASA image by Jesse Allen, using AMSR-E data processed and provided by Chelle Gentemann and Frank Wentz, Remote Sensing Systems.
File:La Nina regional impacts.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:La_Nina_regional_impacts.gif  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: NOAA
File:Enso-index-map.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Enso-index-map.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Original uploader was William M. Connolley at
en.wikipedia
File:Major-hurricanes-Atl El-Nino Modoki.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Major-hurricanes-Atl_El-Nino_Modoki.png  License: Public Domain  Contributors:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center - Historical Hurricane Tracks
File:Mean sst equatorial pacific.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Mean_sst_equatorial_pacific.gif  License: unknown  Contributors: Original uploader was SEWilco at
en.wikipedia
File:Sstanom 199711 krig.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Sstanom_199711_krig.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Image based on data from the
IRI/LDEO Climate Data Library
Image:La Nina and Pacific Decadal Anomalies - April 2008.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:La_Nina_and_Pacific_Decadal_Anomalies_-_April_2008.png
 License: Public Domain  Contributors: NASA image by Jesse Allen, AMSR-E data processed and provided by Chelle Gentemann and Frank Wentz, Remote Sensing Systems
Image:Atmospheric bridge.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Atmospheric_bridge.png  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors:
User:Giorgiogp2
Image:Sst_reemergence.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Sst_reemergence.png  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors:
User:Giorgiogp2
Image:Mixed_layer_depth_seasonal_cycle.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Mixed_layer_depth_seasonal_cycle.png  License: Creative Commons
Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors: User:Giorgiogp2
Image:PDO.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:PDO.svg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors: User:Giorgiogp2
Image:PDO1000yr.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:PDO1000yr.svg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors: User:Giorgiogp2
Image:MilankovitchCyclesOrbitandCores.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:MilankovitchCyclesOrbitandCores.png  License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0
 Contributors: User:Incredio
Image:Eccentricity zero.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Eccentricity_zero.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: NASA, w:User:MysidMysid
Image:Eccentricity half.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Eccentricity_half.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: NASA, w:User:MysidMysid
Image:Earth obliquity range.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Earth_obliquity_range.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: NASA, w:User:MysidMysid
Image:Earth precession.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Earth_precession.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: NASA, w:User:MysidMysid
Image:Precessing Kepler orbit 280frames e0.6 smaller.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Precessing_Kepler_orbit_280frames_e0.6_smaller.gif  License: Creative
Commons Attribution 3.0  Contributors: User:WillowW
Image:precession and seasons.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Precession_and_seasons.jpg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors:
User:GregBenson
Image:Cyclic deposits.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Cyclic_deposits.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0  Contributors: User:Verisimilus
Image:Vostok 420ky 4curves insolation.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Vostok_420ky_4curves_insolation.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors:
Alexander.stohr, Bender235, Elvey, Pieter Kuiper, Pmsyyz, Suarez ruibal, Telim tor, TommyBee, 2 anonymous edits
Image:Five Myr Climate Change.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Five_Myr_Climate_Change.svg  License: unknown  Contributors: User:Dragons flight, User:Jo
Weber
Image:InsolationSummerSolstice65N.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:InsolationSummerSolstice65N.png  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Incredio
Image:SeasonDuration.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:SeasonDuration.png  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: User:Ariel., User:Cydebot,
User:GregBenson
Image:Solar-cycle-data.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Solar-cycle-data.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Beland, Dragons flight, Lampman, Lissajous, Mgc8,
Nils Simon, WikipediaMaster, Xenoforme, Xiong Chiamiov, 3 anonymous edits
Image:Sunspot Numbers.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Sunspot_Numbers.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Chricton, Dragons flight, Hairy Dude, Mmxx,
Nagy, Newone, Nils Simon, Wknight94, 9 anonymous edits
Image:Solar Activity Proxies.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Solar_Activity_Proxies.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Dragons flight, Glenn, Merikanto,
Pflatau, Sebman81, 2 anonymous edits
Image:Sunspots 11000 years.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Sunspots_11000_years.svg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 2.5  Contributors:
Conscious, Newone, SBaker43, Sebman81, 2 anonymous edits
Image:Carbon14 with activity labels.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors:
User:Common Good
Image:Carbon-14-10kyr-Hallstadtzeit Cycles.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Carbon-14-10kyr-Hallstadtzeit_Cycles.png  License: unknown  Contributors:
SEWilco, 1 anonymous edits
Image:Milankovitch Variations.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Milankovitch_Variations.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Bender235, David Legrand,
Dragons flight, Flappiefh, Glenn, Pflatau, Pieter Kuiper, 1 anonymous edits
Image:Magnetosphere rendition.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Magnetosphere_rendition.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: w:NASANASA
Image:Heliosphere drawing.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Heliosphere_drawing.gif  License: Public Domain  Contributors: CarolSpears, Wikier
Image:Carbon14-sunspot-1000px.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Carbon14-sunspot-1000px.png  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0
 Contributors: User:William M. Connolley
File:MtCleveland ISS013-E-24184.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:MtCleveland_ISS013-E-24184.jpg  License: unknown  Contributors: ISS Crew Earth
Observations experiment and the Image Science & Analysis Group, Johnson Space Center.
File:Volcano scheme.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Volcano_scheme.svg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: user:MesserWoland
File:Pinatubo ash plume 910612.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Pinatubo_ash_plume_910612.jpg  License: unknown  Contributors: D. Harlow
File:Spreading ridges volcanoes map-en.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Spreading_ridges_volcanoes_map-en.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors:
User:Sting
File:Rinjani 1994.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Rinjani_1994.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 2.0  Contributors: *drew, Geofrog, Indon, Kam Solusar,
Krinkle, Rémih, Saperaud, Spolloman, 7 anonymous edits
File:Three Waikupanaha and one Ki lava ocean entries w-edit2.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Three_Waikupanaha_and_one_Ki_lava_ocean_entries_w-edit2.jpg
 License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors: Mila Zinkova; edited by jjron Original uploader was Jjron at en.wikipedia
File:FujiSunriseKawaguchiko2025WP.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:FujiSunriseKawaguchiko2025WP.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Araisyohei,
CasinoKat, Fg2, LERK, Myself488, Pmx, Reggaeman, 2 anonymous edits
Image Sources, Licenses and Contributors 608

File:Lakagigar Iceland 2004-07-01.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Lakagigar_Iceland_2004-07-01.jpg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors:
Juhász Péter
File:Skjaldbreidur Herbst 2004.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Skjaldbreidur_Herbst_2004.jpg  License: unknown  Contributors: User:Reykholt
File:Volcán Chaitén-Sam Beebe-Ecotrust.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Volcán_Chaitén-Sam_Beebe-Ecotrust.jpg  License: Creative Commons
Attribution-Sharealike 2.0  Contributors: Sam Beebe
File:VeyoVolcano.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:VeyoVolcano.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Wilson44691
File:Mt.Mayon tam3rd.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Mt.Mayon_tam3rd.jpg  License: Attribution  Contributors: . Original uploader was Tam3rd at en.wikipedia
File:Toba zoom.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Toba_zoom.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Denys, Gilgameshkun, Joolz, Martin H., Olivier2, Rémih,
Thuresson, 1 anonymous edits
File:Herðubreið-Iceland-2.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Herðubreið-Iceland-2.jpg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: User:Seattle Skier
File:Taman mud volcanoes.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Taman_mud_volcanoes.JPG  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors:
User:Kmorozov
File:Lava channel overflow.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Lava_channel_overflow.JPG  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors:
Mila Zinkova
File:DenglerSW-Stromboli-20040928-1230x800.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:DenglerSW-Stromboli-20040928-1230x800.jpg  License: Creative Commons
Attribution-Sharealike 2.0  Contributors: Haltiamieli, Jafeluv, Jeanot, Juiced lemon, Mac9, Ulrichstill, 4 anonymous edits
File:Western-Ghats-Matheran.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Western-Ghats-Matheran.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 2.5  Contributors:
User:Nichalp
File:Ropy pahoehoe.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Ropy_pahoehoe.jpg  License: unknown  Contributors: Tari Noelani Mattox, USGS geologist
File:Volcano.jpeg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Volcano.jpeg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Dbenbenn, Jurema Oliveira, Mattes, Rémih
File:Damavand in winter.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Damavand_in_winter.jpg  License: unknown  Contributors: Hamed Khorramyar
Image:Pompeii - Casa del Centenario - MAN.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Pompeii_-_Casa_del_Centenario_-_MAN.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors:
WolfgangRieger
File:Fourpeaked-fumaroles-cyrus-read1.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Fourpeaked-fumaroles-cyrus-read1.JPG  License: unknown  Contributors: Michaelh2001,
Monkeybait, 3 anonymous edits
File:Avacha volcano Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky oct-2005.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Avacha_volcano_Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky_oct-2005.jpg  License:
unknown  Contributors: Bansp, Peko, 4 anonymous edits
Image:Teide Volcano Tenerife 20060429.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Teide_Volcano_Tenerife_20060429.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 2.0
 Contributors: ph_micchei
File:Volcanic injection.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Volcanic_injection.svg  License: unknown  Contributors: User:Cflm001
File:Mauna Loa atmospheric transmission.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Mauna_Loa_atmospheric_transmission.png  License: Public Domain  Contributors:
Diwas, Joolz, Kokoo, Rémih, Vonvon, 2 anonymous edits
File:TOMS SO2 time nov03.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:TOMS_SO2_time_nov03.png  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Benjah-bmm27, Brighterorange,
Magalhães, Rémih, Stannered
File:SO2 Galapagos 20051101.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:SO2_Galapagos_20051101.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Benjah-bmm27, CarolSpears,
Dr Brains, Howcheng, LobStoR, Rémih, Telim tor
File:Rainbow and sulfur dioxide emissions from the Halemaumau vent.jpg  Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Rainbow_and_sulfur_dioxide_emissions_from_the_Halemaumau_vent.jpg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: Mila
Zinkova
File:Olympus Mons.jpeg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Olympus_Mons.jpeg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Hurricanehink, Kanonkas, PDCA, TheDJ, Ævar
Arnfjörð Bjarmason, 4 anonymous edits
File:Tvashtarvideo.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Tvashtarvideo.gif  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Original uploader was Serendipodous at en.wikipedia
File:Mount Bromo Panorama.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Mount_Bromo_Panorama.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0  Contributors: User:Beiske
File:Tangkuban Perahu Panorama.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Tangkuban_Perahu_Panorama.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 2.5
 Contributors: Original uploader was Unmadindu at en.wikipedia
File:DirkvdM irazu 1.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:DirkvdM_irazu_1.jpg  License: unknown  Contributors: DirkvdM, RedWolf, Romary, Rémih, Wst, ZorkNika
File:Fillmorevolcano.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Fillmorevolcano.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 2.5  Contributors: Original uploader was
Staplegunther at en.wikipedia
File:Taal Volcano 2007.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Taal_Volcano_2007.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 2.5  Contributors: User:C.
Bradley
File:Volcan sierra negra.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Volcan_sierra_negra.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors: Ofbarea
File:Isola vulcano.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Isola_vulcano.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Brisk g
File:Binubulauan3092.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Binubulauan3092.jpg  License: unknown  Contributors: User:Gubernatoria
Image:Global Atmospheric Model.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Global_Atmospheric_Model.jpg  License: unknown  Contributors: Original uploader was Sagredo
at en.wikipedia
Image:GCM temp anomalies 3 2000.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:GCM_temp_anomalies_3_2000.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Mdd, Nils Simon,
Santosga
Image:Hadcm3-era-sst-annual.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Hadcm3-era-sst-annual.png  License: unknown  Contributors: User:William M. Connolley
Image:Climate model NA annual precipitation 2002.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Climate_model_NA_annual_precipitation_2002.jpg  License: Public Domain
 Contributors: Bkell, CanisRufus, Monkeybait, SEWilco
File:Siebenschneiderstein 1.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Siebenschneiderstein_1.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 2.0  Contributors:
User:Lapplaender
File:Arrhenius2.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Arrhenius2.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: ChVA, Duesentrieb, HenkvD, JdH, LX, Lukius, Väsk, Yelm
File:James Hansen Crop1.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:James_Hansen_Crop1.png  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Gralo
File:Climate Change Attribution.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Climate_Change_Attribution.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Chris Capoccia, Dragons
flight, Liftarn, Pflatau, 5 anonymous edits
Image:Risks and Impacts of Global Warming.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Risks_and_Impacts_of_Global_Warming.png  License: unknown  Contributors:
User:Dragons flight
Image:Global Warming Map.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Global_Warming_Map.jpg  License: unknown  Contributors: Reynolds, R.W., N.A. Rayner, T.M.
Smith, D.C. Stokes, and W. Wang
Image:Cyclone Catarina 2004.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Cyclone_Catarina_2004.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz,
MODIS Land Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC.
Image:Glacier Mass Balance Map.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Glacier_Mass_Balance_Map.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Dragons flight, Gaf.arq,
Pflatau, 3 anonymous edits
Image:Holocene Sea Level.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Holocene_Sea_Level.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Awickert, Dragons flight, Glenn, Pflatau, 3
anonymous edits
Image:Thermohaline Circulation 2.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Thermohaline_Circulation_2.png  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Robert Simmon,
NASA. Minor modifications by w:User:Dragons flightRobert A. Rohde also released to the w:public domainpublic domain
Image Sources, Licenses and Contributors 609

Image:Dryas drummondii6.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Dryas_drummondii6.jpg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: Kallerna, MPF,
Orchi
Image:Extinction intensity.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Extinction_intensity.svg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: Beland, Dragons
flight, Geoffrey.landis, Patrick, Smith609, TomCatX, Wst, 1 anonymous edits
Image:Sunflower crop on the Darling Downs, Queensland.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Sunflower_crop_on_the_Darling_Downs,_Queensland.jpg  License:
GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: User:DavidMarsh
Image:Northern Forest Trend in Photosynthetic Activity.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Northern_Forest_Trend_in_Photosynthetic_Activity.gif  License: Public
Domain  Contributors: NASA Earth Observatory
File:Fields outside benambra.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Fields_outside_benambra.jpg  License: unknown  Contributors: Bdk, Chmee2, Fir0002, Olybrius
File:Drought.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Drought.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0  Contributors: Tomas Castelazo
File:ShrinkingLakeChad-1973-1997-EO.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:ShrinkingLakeChad-1973-1997-EO.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Amcaja,
Frieda, Frumpy, Ingolfson
File:Sheep on a drought-affected paddock.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Sheep_on_a_drought-affected_paddock.jpg  License: Creative Commons
Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors: User:Bidgee
File:Mongolian Gazelle dead of drought.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Mongolian_Gazelle_dead_of_drought.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 2.0
 Contributors: Mark Heard from Calgary, Alberta, Canada
File:Aralship2.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Aralship2.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Staecker
File:FEMA - 917 - Photograph by Angel Santiago taken on 04-03-1998 in Marshall Islands.jpg  Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:FEMA_-_917_-_Photograph_by_Angel_Santiago_taken_on_04-03-1998_in_Marshall_Islands.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors:
Image:Bangladesh Fishing 2006.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Bangladesh_Fishing_2006.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0  Contributors: Michael
Foley, World Bank
File:Maldives - Kurumba Island.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Maldives_-_Kurumba_Island.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:PalawanOz
File:Fisherman Seychelles.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Fisherman_Seychelles.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Photography by Dino Sassi - Marcel
Fayon, Photo Eden LTD
Image:White cliffs of dover 09 2004.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:White_cliffs_of_dover_09_2004.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 2.0
 Contributors: FlickreviewR, Joolz, MECU, Man vyi, QuartierLatin1968, Steinsky, Tonderai, 1 anonymous edits
Image:whitechuck glacier 1973.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Whitechuck_glacier_1973.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Original uploader was Mauri
Pelto at en.wikipedia
Image:whitechuck glacier 2006.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Whitechuck_glacier_2006.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Original uploader was Peltoms
at en.wikipedia
Image:Glacier Mass Balance.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Glacier_Mass_Balance.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Autopilot, Bender235, Dgroseth,
Dragons flight, Gaf.arq, Glenn, Nils Simon, W!B:, 1 anonymous edits
Image:Alps-glaciers.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Alps-glaciers.png  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:CommonismNow, User:Lychee
Image:Glacial lakes, Bhutan.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Glacial_lakes,_Bhutan.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: NASA
Image:170.12806E 43.67770S.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:170.12806E_43.67770S.gif  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: Glen Fergus,
Gryffindor, Mattes, Mircea, Petri Krohn, Slomox
Image:lewist.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Lewist.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Peltoms, W!B:, 3 anonymous edits
Image:Bouldert.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Bouldert.jpg  License: unknown  Contributors: User:Peltoms (Wikipédia anglais)
Image:eastonterm.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Eastonterm.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Hike395, Mircea, Peltoms, 3 anonymous edits
Image:Grinnell Glacier 1938.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Grinnell_Glacier_1938.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: T.J. Hileman (Glacier National Park
Archives)
Image:Grinnell Glacier 1981.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Grinnell_Glacier_1981.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Carl Key (USGS)
Image:Grinnell Glacier 1998.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Grinnell_Glacier_1998.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Dan Fagre (USGS)
Image:Grinnell Glacier 2009.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Grinnell_Glacier_2009.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Lindsey Bengtson
Image:Melting Toe of Athabasca Glacier.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Melting_Toe_of_Athabasca_Glacier.jpg  License: Creative Commons
Attribution-Sharealike 2.5  Contributors: User:Wingchi
Image:Athabasca Glacier BenWBell.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Athabasca_Glacier_BenWBell.jpg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors:
Kadellar, Mircea, Pmsyyz, Saperaud
Image:Valdez Glacier.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Valdez_Glacier.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Aconcagua, Juiced lemon, MONGO, Urban
Image:73.85851W 46.74169S.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:73.85851W_46.74169S.gif  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: Glen Fergus,
Mattes, Mircea, Slomox
Image:Glacier at summit of Mt Kilimanjaro 001.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Glacier_at_summit_of_Mt_Kilimanjaro_001.JPG  License: GNU Free
Documentation License  Contributors: User:Yosemite
Image:Puncak Jaya icecap 1936.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Puncak_Jaya_icecap_1936.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Elekhh, Indon, MONGO
Image:Puncak Jaya icecap 1972.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Puncak_Jaya_icecap_1972.jpg  License: unknown  Contributors: at U.S. Geological Survey,
U.S.Department of the Interior
Image:Bylot Islandedit.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Bylot_Islandedit.png  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Wku2m5rr, 1 anonymous edits
Image:Retreat of the Helheim Glacier, Greenland.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Retreat_of_the_Helheim_Glacier,_Greenland.jpg  License: Public Domain
 Contributors: ANSA
Image:Larsen B Collapse.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Larsen_B_Collapse.jpg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: Robert A. Rohde
Image:160658main2 OZONE large 350.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:160658main2_OZONE_large_350.png  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Gms, Kyro,
LobStoR, Nils Simon, Telim tor, 7 anonymous edits
File:Ozone cycle.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Ozone_cycle.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Smartse
Image:TOMS Global Ozone 65N-65S.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:TOMS_Global_Ozone_65N-65S.png  License: Public Domain  Contributors: NASA
Image:Atmosphere layers-en.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Atmosphere_layers-en.svg  License: unknown  Contributors: NOAA & w:User:MysidUser:Mysid
Image:Min ozone.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Min_ozone.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Atmoz, Bkell, Joey-das-WBF, Muu-karhu
File:Uars ozone waves.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Uars_ozone_waves.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: NASA
File:Future ozone layer concentrations.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Future_ozone_layer_concentrations.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: NASA
Image:Ozone cfc trends.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Ozone_cfc_trends.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Liftarn, Maksim, Robert Skyhawk, Skamon, 5
anonymous edits
Image:Radiative-forcings.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Radiative-forcings.svg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: This figure was
produced by Leland McInnes (Radiative-forcings.svg) using gnuplot and Inkscape and is licensed under the GFDL. All data is from publicly available sources.
Image:Sources of stratospheric chlorine.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Sources_of_stratospheric_chlorine.png  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike
2.5  Contributors: User:RedAndr
File:WOA05 GLODAP del pH AYool.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:WOA05_GLODAP_del_pH_AYool.png  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike
3.0  Contributors: User:Plumbago
File:CO2 pump hg.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:CO2_pump_hg.png  License: Attribution  Contributors: User:Hgrobe
Image Sources, Licenses and Contributors 610

File:Carbonate system of seawater.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Carbonate_system_of_seawater.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Meiyuchang
File:WOA05 GLODAP pd pH AYool.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:WOA05_GLODAP_pd_pH_AYool.png  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike
3.0  Contributors: User:Plumbago
File:WOA05 GLODAP pd aco2 AYool.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:WOA05_GLODAP_pd_aco2_AYool.png  License: Creative Commons
Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors: User:Plumbago
File:WOA05 GLODAP invt aco2 AYool.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:WOA05_GLODAP_invt_aco2_AYool.png  License: GNU Free Documentation License
 Contributors: User:Plumbago
File:WOA05 GLODAP del co3 AYool.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:WOA05_GLODAP_del_co3_AYool.png  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike
3.0  Contributors: User:Plumbago
Image:oa-sami.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Oa-sami.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Bernadette Charpentier
Image:Oa-buoy-enrique-reef.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Oa-buoy-enrique-reef.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Hendee
Image:Alpine flora logan pass.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Alpine_flora_logan_pass.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 2.5  Contributors: Original
uploader was Traveler100 at en.wikipedia
Image:Daintree Rainforest.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Daintree_Rainforest.JPG  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: Original uploader
was Adz at en.wikipedia
Image:Last glacial vegetation map.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Last_glacial_vegetation_map.png  License: unknown  Contributors: DieBuche, Fabartus, Glenn,
Innotata, JMCC1, Joey-das-WBF, Jrockley, MaxEnt, Mmcannis, Santosga, SchuminWeb, Slomox, 4 anonymous edits
Image:2005 surface temperature anomaly.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:2005_surface_temperature_anomaly.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Goddard
Institute of Space Studies
Image:US precipitation trends.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:US_precipitation_trends.gif  License: Public Domain  Contributors: NOAA's National Climatic Data
Center
Image:alpineplantssweden.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Alpineplantssweden.jpg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: Leif Kullman
File:2007 Arctic Sea Ice.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:2007_Arctic_Sea_Ice.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: w:National Aeronautics and Space
AdministrationNASA image created by Jesse Allen, using AMSR-E data courtesy of the w:National Snow and Ice Data CenterNational Snow and Ice Data (NSIDC), and sea ice extent contours
courtesy of Terry Haran and Matt Savoie, NSIDC, based on w:Special Sensor Microwave/ImagerSpecial Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data.
Image:Recent Sea Level Rise.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Recent_Sea_Level_Rise.png  License: unknown  Contributors: ALE!, Angrense, Dragons flight, El
Grafo, Glenn, Pflatau, Smith609, 1 anonymous edits
Image:Post-Glacial Sea Level.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Post-Glacial_Sea_Level.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Angrense, Dragons flight, Glenn,
Pflatau, 2 anonymous edits
Image:Mass balance atmospheric circulation.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Mass_balance_atmospheric_circulation.png  License: Public Domain  Contributors:
NASA
Image:U. S. Sea Level Trends 1900-2003.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:U._S._Sea_Level_Trends_1900-2003.gif  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Original
uploader was Sagredo at en.wikipedia
Image:Global_Mean_Sea_Level.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Global_Mean_Sea_Level.svg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors:
User:Giorgiogp2
Image:NOAA_sea_level_trend_1993_2010.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:NOAA_sea_level_trend_1993_2010.png  License: Creative Commons
Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors: User:Giorgiogp2
Image:95307main fig4m.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:95307main_fig4m.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Original uploader was Ray Van De Walker at
en.wikipedia
Image:Kyoto Protocol participation map 2009.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Kyoto_Protocol_participation_map_2009.png  License: GNU Free Documentation
License  Contributors: User:Emturan
Image:Carbon Emission by Region.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Carbon_Emission_by_Region.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Cory, Dragons flight,
Manuelt15, Mats Halldin, Pflatau, Shizhao, 3 anonymous edits
File:COP15 Logo.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:COP15_Logo.svg  License: unknown  Contributors: Jroy5
File:Connie Hedegaard.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Connie_Hedegaard.jpg  License: unknown  Contributors: User:Moeng
File:Flag of Australia.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Australia.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Ian Fieggen
File:Flag of Belarus.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Belarus.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Zscout370
File:Flag of Brazil.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Brazil.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Brazilian Government
File:Flag of Canada.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Canada.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:E Pluribus Anthony, User:Mzajac
File:Flag of the People's Republic of China.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_the_People's_Republic_of_China.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors:
User:Denelson83, User:SKopp, User:Shizhao, User:Zscout370
File:Flag of Costa Rica.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Costa_Rica.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Gabbe, User:SKopp
File:Flag of Europe.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Europe.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:-xfi-, User:Dbenbenn, User:Funakoshi,
User:Jeltz, User:Nightstallion, User:Paddu, User:Verdy p, User:Zscout370
File:Flag of Germany.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Germany.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Madden, User:Pumbaa80, User:SKopp
File:Flag of Iceland.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Iceland.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Zscout370, User:Ævar Arnfjörð Bjarmason
File:Flag of India.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_India.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:SKopp
File:Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Prime_Minister_Manmohan_Singh.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Official
White House Photo by Pete Souza
File:Flag of Indonesia.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Indonesia.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Gabbe, User:SKopp
File:Flag of Japan.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Japan.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Various
File:Flag of Kazakhstan.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Kazakhstan.svg  License: unknown  Contributors: -xfi-
File:Flag of Liechtenstein.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Liechtenstein.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Mnmazur
File:Flag of Maldives.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Maldives.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: user:Nightstallion
File:Flag of Mexico.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Mexico.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:AlexCovarrubias
File:Flag of Monaco.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Monaco.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:SKopp
File:Flag of New Zealand.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_New_Zealand.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Adambro, Arria Belli, Avenue,
Bawolff, Bjankuloski06en, ButterStick, Denelson83, Donk, Duduziq, EugeneZelenko, Fred J, Fry1989, Hugh Jass, Ibagli, Jusjih, Klemen Kocjancic, Mamndassan, Mattes, Nightstallion, O,
Peeperman, Poromiami, Reisio, Rfc1394, Shizhao, Tabasco, Transparent Blue, Väsk, Xufanc, Zscout370, 35 anonymous edits
File:Flag of Norway.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Norway.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Dbenbenn
File:Flag of the Philippines.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_the_Philippines.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Aira Cutamora
File:Flag of Russia.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Russia.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Zscout370
File:Flag of Singapore.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Singapore.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Various
File:Flag of South Africa.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_South_Africa.svg  License: unknown  Contributors: Adriaan, Anime Addict AA, AnonMoos,
BRUTE, Daemonic Kangaroo, Dnik, Duduziq, Dzordzm, Fry1989, Homo lupus, Jappalang, Juliancolton, Kam Solusar, Klemen Kocjancic, Klymene, Lexxyy, Mahahahaneapneap, Manuelt15,
Moviedefender, NeverDoING, Ninane, Poznaniak, SKopp, ThePCKid, ThomasPusch, Tvdm, Ultratomio, Vzb83, Zscout370, 33 anonymous edits
File:Flag of South Korea.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_South_Korea.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Various
Image Sources, Licenses and Contributors 611

File:Flag of Switzerland.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Switzerland.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:-xfi-, User:Marc Mongenet,
User:Zscout370
File:Flag of Ukraine.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_Ukraine.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Jon Harald Søby, User:Zscout370
File:Flag of the United States.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Flag_of_the_United_States.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Dbenbenn,
User:Indolences, User:Jacobolus, User:Technion, User:Zscout370
File:Coloniliasm at COP15.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Coloniliasm_at_COP15.JPG  License: Attribution  Contributors: User:EPO
File:COP15pechke.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:COP15pechke.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Pechke
File:Klimaforum09 closing ceremony wahu kaara.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Klimaforum09_closing_ceremony_wahu_kaara.jpg  License: Creative Commons
Attribution 3.0  Contributors: User:Zyt
Image:Grand Junction Trip 92007 098.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Grand_Junction_Trip_92007_098.JPG  License: GNU Free Documentation License
 Contributors: Original uploader was Staplegunther at en.wikipedia
Image:Coal power plant Datteln 2 Crop1.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Coal_power_plant_Datteln_2_Crop1.png  License: Creative Commons
Attribution-Sharealike 2.5  Contributors: User:Arnoldius, User:Gralo
Image:Emissions.Trading.jpeg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Emissions.Trading.jpeg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0  Contributors: Original uploader was
Foxscully xf at en.wikipedia
File:2009-11-30 - Chicago Climate Justice activists in Chicago - Cap'n'Trade protest 011.jpg  Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:2009-11-30_-_Chicago_Climate_Justice_activists_in_Chicago_-_Cap'n'Trade_protest_011.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike
3.0  Contributors: User:Wesha
Image:Compact-Fluorescent-Bulb.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Compact-Fluorescent-Bulb.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0  Contributors:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:PiccoloNamek
Image:EU energy label.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:EU_energy_label.png  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: User:SKopp
Image:Pretty flamingos - geograph.org.uk - 578705.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Pretty_flamingos_-_geograph.org.uk_-_578705.jpg  License: unknown
 Contributors: Steve Fareham
Image:Solar-crop.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Solar-crop.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: White House Photographer Jesse Lee
Image:Ren2008.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Ren2008.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Elekhh, Zellfaze
File:Wind Turbines .jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Wind_Turbines_.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0  Contributors: User:Tim1337
File:Grand Coulee Dam.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Grand_Coulee_Dam.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation
File:Klassieren.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Klassieren.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0  Contributors: User:Ersol
File:Krafla Geothermal Station.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Krafla_Geothermal_Station.jpg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: Original
uploader was Mike Schiraldi at en.wikipedia
File:WorldWindPower.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:WorldWindPower.png  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Splette
Image:Fentonwindpark1.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Fentonwindpark1.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0  Contributors: Original uploader was
Windtech at en.wikipedia
Image:PS20andPS10.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:PS20andPS10.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0  Contributors: User:Koza1983
File:Juwi PV Field.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Juwi_PV_Field.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors: JUWI Group
File:Bunda do ônibus de etanol.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Bunda_do_ônibus_de_etanol.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Ricardo Fonseca -
Secretaria de comunicação - Prefeitura de São Paulo
File:West Ford Flat Geothermal Cooling Tower.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:West_Ford_Flat_Geothermal_Cooling_Tower.JPG  License: Public Domain
 Contributors: Original uploader was Rtracey at en.wikipedia
File:Pelamis Wellenkraftwerk Portugal 3.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Pelamis_Wellenkraftwerk_Portugal_3.JPG  License: Free Art License  Contributors:
Guido Grassow
Image:Re investment 1995-2007.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Re_investment_1995-2007.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Original uploader was
GGByte at en.wikipedia
Image:EGS diagram.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:EGS_diagram.svg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors: User:FischX,
User:Ytrottier
File:Carbon sequestration-2009-10-07.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Carbon_sequestration-2009-10-07.svg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike
3.0  Contributors: User:Jarl Arntzen
Image:Cow killed by Lake Nyos gasses.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Cow_killed_by_Lake_Nyos_gasses.jpg  License: unknown  Contributors: Photo by Jack
Lockwood of the US Geological Survey.
Image:virgin.atlantic.a340-600.g-vyou.arp.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Virgin.atlantic.a340-600.g-vyou.arp.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Apalsola,
Arpingstone, Mogelzahn, My name, Simisa
File:Phytoplankton SoAtlantic 20060215.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Phytoplankton_SoAtlantic_20060215.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: NASA
File:65 Myr Climate Change.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:65_Myr_Climate_Change.png  License: unknown  Contributors: Zachos, James, Mark Pagani, Lisa
Sloan, Ellen Thomas, and Katharina Billups
Image:CO2 pump hg.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:CO2_pump_hg.svg  License: Attribution  Contributors: User:Hgrobe, User:McSush
Image:Sedum weinbergii.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Sedum_weinbergii.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Sergei
Image:Irrigation1.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Irrigation1.jpg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: Paulkondratuk3194 (talk). Original
uploader was Paulkondratuk3194 at en.wikipedia
File:Irrigational sprinkler.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Irrigational_sprinkler.jpg  License: unknown  Contributors: Look2See1, Muhammad Mahdi Karim
Image:Pot chain irrigation 1846.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Pot_chain_irrigation_1846.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: JMCC1, Martin H., Rupert
Clayton, SB Johnny
Image:Kashmir irrigation.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Kashmir_irrigation.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Original uploader was Idleguy at
en.wikipedia
Image:Turpan-karez-museo-d02.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Turpan-karez-museo-d02.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 2.5
 Contributors: User:Colegota
Image:LevelBasinFloodIrrigation.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:LevelBasinFloodIrrigation.JPG  License: Public Domain  Contributors: H2O-C, Honeplus,
Urban, 3 anonymous edits
Image:Plain of punjab.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Plain_of_punjab.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Original uploader was Ammarkh at en.wikipedia
Image:Sprinkler.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Sprinkler.gif  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Original uploader was Jisl at en.wikipedia
Image:dripperwithdrop.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Dripperwithdrop.gif  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: Original uploader was Jisl at
en.wikipedia
File:Vale do São Francisco Pernanbuco.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Vale_do_São_Francisco_Pernanbuco.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 2.0
 Contributors: Glauco Umbelino
Image:dripirrigation.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Dripirrigation.gif  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Original uploader was Jisl at en.wikipedia
Image:Irrigated blueberries4046.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Irrigated_blueberries4046.jpg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors:
Honeplus, Nux, Saperaud
Image Sources, Licenses and Contributors 612

Image:TravellingSprinkler.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:TravellingSprinkler.JPG  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 2.5  Contributors: Mark
Boyce
File:Center Pivot.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Center_Pivot.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors: User:Montanabw
Image:Center-pivot irrigation.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Center-pivot_irrigation.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: NJR ZA, Saperaud, VanBuren
Image:Nelson A3000 Accelerator.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Nelson_A3000_Accelerator.png  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0
 Contributors: User:Timhall
Image:PivotWithDrops.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:PivotWithDrops.JPG  License: Public Domain  Contributors: H2O-C, Honeplus, NJR ZA, 2 anonymous
edits
Image:WheelLineIrrigation.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:WheelLineIrrigation.JPG  License: Public Domain  Contributors: G.dallorto, H2O-C, Kolossos, 2
anonymous edits
File:PD-icon.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:PD-icon.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Duesentrieb, User:Rfl
Image:Ceres rainwater tank 3 Pengo.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Ceres_rainwater_tank_3_Pengo.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 2.5  Contributors:
Nihilo, Pengo, 1 anonymous edits
Image:Ceres rainwater tank 2 Pengo.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Ceres_rainwater_tank_2_Pengo.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 2.5  Contributors:
Nihilo, Pengo, 1 anonymous edits
Image:Ceres rainwater tank 1 Pengo.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Ceres_rainwater_tank_1_Pengo.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 2.5  Contributors:
Ingolfson, Nihilo, Pengo, 1 anonymous edits
Image:WaterBarrelPlastic.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:WaterBarrelPlastic.JPG  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:KVDP
Image:Rainwater tanks 01 pengo.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Rainwater_tanks_01_pengo.jpg  License: unknown  Contributors: User:Pengo
File:PS20andPS10.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:PS20andPS10.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0  Contributors: User:Koza1983
File:Nested sustainability-v2.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Nested_sustainability-v2.gif  License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors:
User:Sunray
Image:Sustainable development.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Sustainable_development.svg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors:
User:Nojhan, User:Pro_bug_catcher
File:Windmills D1-D4 - Thornton Bank.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Windmills_D1-D4_-_Thornton_Bank.jpg  License: Creative Commons
Attribution-Sharealike 3.0  Contributors: User:Lycaon
Image:The Earth seen from Apollo 17.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:The_Earth_seen_from_Apollo_17.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: NASA. Photo
taken by either Harrison Schmitt or Ron Evans (of the Apollo 17 crew).
File:DEFORASTATION RAIN FOREST RIO DE JANEIRO BRAZIL.JPG  Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:DEFORASTATION_RAIN_FOREST_RIO_DE_JANEIRO_BRAZIL.JPG  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:Alex Rio Brazil
Image:Air .pollution 1.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Air_.pollution_1.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: High Contrast, Quadell, SCEhardt
Image:Amazonie deforestation.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Amazonie_deforestation.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Apdency, Dake
Image:Gletscherschmelze.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Gletscherschmelze.jpg  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: Saperaud, W!B:,
ZorkNika, 1 anonymous edits
Image:Depuradora de Lluc.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Depuradora_de_Lluc.JPG  License: GNU Free Documentation License  Contributors: Bukk, Chixoy,
Ies, JackyR, Tetris L, VIGNERON, 1 anonymous edits
Image:Dszpics1.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Dszpics1.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Daphne Zaras. Original uploader was Runningonbrains at
en.wikipedia
Image:Witches add ingredients to a cauldron.JPG  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Witches_add_ingredients_to_a_cauldron.JPG  License: Public Domain  Contributors:
Andreagrossmann, GeorgHH, Gueneverey, Mattes, Wst
File:Cloud Seeding.svg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Cloud_Seeding.svg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: User:DooFi
File:Project stormfury hypothesis.gif  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Project_stormfury_hypothesis.gif  License: Public Domain  Contributors: Miss Madeline
File:International congress on hail shooting.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:International_congress_on_hail_shooting.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors:
Plumandon
File:Isnd1.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Isnd1.jpg  License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0  Contributors: HAARP
File:Project Stormfury crew.jpg  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Project_Stormfury_crew.jpg  License: Public Domain  Contributors: NOAA
Image:AvoidingDangerousClimateChange.png  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:AvoidingDangerousClimateChange.png  License: unknown  Contributors:
User:Cydebot, User:Gralo
License 613

License
Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported
http:/ / creativecommons. org/ licenses/ by-sa/ 3. 0/

You might also like