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Contents
Articles
Global warming 1
Instrumental temperature record 23
Temperature record of the past 1000 years 33
Historical climatology 37
Paleoclimatology 40
Biofuel 48
Earth's energy budget 59
Earth's radiation balance 61
Fossil fuel 62
Global dimming 68
Global warming potential 77
Greenhouse effect 80
Greenhouse gas 85
Land use, land-use change and forestry 104
Radiative forcing 106
Urban heat island 109
Albedo 118
Bond event 124
Glacial period 126
Global cooling 127
Atlantic multidecadal oscillation 135
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 138
Indian Ocean Dipole 151
Pacific decadal oscillation 153
Milankovitch cycles 160
Orbital forcing 168
Solar variation 170
Volcano 182
Global climate model 198
History of climate change science 212
Scientific opinion on climate change 218
List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming 244
Effects of global warming 252
Abrupt climate change 266
Climate change and agriculture 272
Climate change and ecosystems 282
Drought 287
Economics of global warming 293
Effects of climate change on humans 312
Effects of climate change on marine mammals 318
Fisheries and climate change 320
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 324
Extinction risk from global warming 345
Ozone depletion 347
Ocean acidification 365
Effect of climate change on plant biodiversity 375
Climate change and poverty 380
Runaway climate change 385
Current sea level rise 389
Season creep 404
Shutdown of thermohaline circulation 408
Kyoto Protocol 412
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 428
G8 Climate Change Roundtable 446
Fossil-fuel phase-out 447
Emissions trading 458
Efficient energy use 478
Renewable energy 485
Nuclear energy 500
Carbon capture and storage 500
Geoengineering 520
Carbon sink 533
Climate change mitigation scenarios 545
Drought tolerance 548
Irrigation 549
Rainwater tank 560
Sustainable development 565
Weather control 576
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change 584
Index of climate change articles 587
References
Article Sources and Contributors 590
Image Sources, Licenses and Contributors 605
Article Licenses
License 613
Global warming 1
Global warming
Line plot of global mean land-ocean temperature change from 1880-2010, relative to the 1951-1980 mean. The black line is the annual mean and
the red line is the 5-year running mean. The green bars show uncertainty estimates. Source: NASA GISS
Comparison of surface based (blue) and satellite based (red: UAH; green: RSS) records of global mean temperature change from 1979-2009. Linear
trends plotted since 1982.
The map shows the 10-year average (2000-2009) global mean temperature anomaly relative to the 1951-1980 mean. The largest temperature
[1]
increases are in the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula. Source: NASA Earth Observatory
Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th
century and its projected continuation. According to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global surface temperature increased by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the
20th century.[2] [A] Most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of the 20th century has been caused
by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, which result from human activities such as the burning of fossil
fuel and deforestation.[3] [4] Global dimming, a phenomenon of increasing atmospheric concentrations of
human-made particulates, which affect cloud properties and block sunlight from reaching the surface, has partially
countered the effects of warming induced by greenhouse gases.
Climate model projections summarized in the 2007 IPCC report indicate that the global surface temperature is likely
to rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the 21st century.[2] The uncertainty in this estimate arises from
the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations and the use of differing estimates of
future greenhouse gas emissions. An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the
amount and pattern of precipitation, probably including expansion of subtropical deserts.[5] Warming is expected to
be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other
likely effects of the warming include more frequent and intense precipitation events, extreme weather events, species
extinctions due to shifting isotherms, and changes in agricultural yields. Warming and related changes will vary from
region to region around the globe, though the nature of these regional changes is uncertain.[6] As a result of
Global warming 2
contemporary increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, the oceans have become more acidic, a result that is
predicted to continue.[7] [8]
The scientific consensus is that anthropogenic global warming is occurring. This finding is recognized by the
national science academies of all the major industrialized countries and is not rejected by any scientific body of
national or international standing.[9] [10] [11] [B] Nevertheless, skepticism amongst the wider public remains. The
Kyoto Protocol is aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentration to prevent a "dangerous anthropogenic
interference".[12] As of November 2009, 187 states had signed and ratified the protocol.[13] Proposed responses to
global warming include mitigation to reduce emissions, adaptation to the effects of global warming, and
geoengineering to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.
Temperature changes
Evidence for warming of the climate system includes observed
increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread
melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.[14] [15] [16]
[17]
The most common measure of global warming is the trend in
globally averaged temperature near the Earth's surface. Expressed as a
linear trend, this temperature rose by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C over the period
1906–2005. The rate of warming over the last half of that period was
almost double that for the period as a whole (0.13 ± 0.03 °C per
decade, versus 0.07 °C ± 0.02 °C per decade). The urban heat island
Two millennia of mean surface temperatures
effect is estimated to account for about 0.002 °C of warming per according to different reconstructions, each
decade since 1900.[18] Temperatures in the lower troposphere have smoothed on a decadal scale, with the
increased between 0.13 and 0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade since instrumemtal temperature record overlaid in
black.
1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Temperature is
believed to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand
years before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.[19]
Estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the National Climatic Data Center show that
2005 was the planet's warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in the
late 19th century, exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.[20] [21] Estimates
prepared by the World Meteorological Organization and the Climatic Research Unit show 2005 as the second
warmest year, behind 1998.[22] [23] Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because the strongest El Niño in the
past century occurred during that year.[24] Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long
term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature from 2002 to 2009 is consistent
with such an episode.[25] [26]
Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean
temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade).[27] Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than
land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat
by evaporation.[28] The Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere because it has more land
and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo feedback. Although more
greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in
warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.[29]
The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries or
longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were
stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur.[30]
Global warming 3
External forcings
External forcing refers to processes external to the climate system (though not necessarily external to Earth) that
influence climate. Climate responds to several types of external forcing, such as radiative forcing due to changes in
atmospheric composition (mainly greenhouse gas concentrations), changes in solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions,
and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.[31] Attribution of recent climate change focuses on the first three types
of forcing. Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and thus are too gradual to have caused the
temperature changes observed in the past century.
Greenhouse gases
Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and earth's surface. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts
per square meter (W/m2).
This graph is known as the "Keeling Curve" and it shows the long-term increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations from
1958-2008. Monthly CO2 measurements display seasonal oscillations in an upward trend; each year's maximum occurs during the Northern
Hemisphere's late spring, and declines during its growing season as plants remove some atmospheric CO2.
The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the
atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first
investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.[32]
Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F).[33] [C] The major
greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70 percent of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide
(CO2), which causes 9–26 percent; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9 percent; and ozone (O3), which causes 3–7
percent.[34] [35] [36] Clouds also affect the radiation balance, but they are composed of liquid water or ice and so have
different effects on radiation from water vapor.
Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,
leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. The
concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750.[37] These levels are
much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted
from ice cores.[38] [39] [40] [41] Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this were last
seen about 20 million years ago.[42] Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2
from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use,
particularly deforestation.[43]
Over the last three decades of the 20th century, GDP per capita and population growth were the main drivers of
increases in greenhouse gas emissions.[44] CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and
Global warming 4
land-use change.[45] [46] :71 Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases,
have been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments.[47]
In most scenarios, emissions continue to rise over the century, while in a few, emissions are reduced.[48] [49] These
emission scenarios, combined with carbon cycle modelling, have been used to produce estimates of how atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases will change in the future. Using the six IPCC SRES "marker" scenarios, models
suggest that by the year 2100, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 could range between 541 and 970 ppm.[50] This
is an increase of 90-250% above the concentration in the year 1750. Fossil fuel reserves are sufficient to reach these
levels and continue emissions past 2100 if coal, oil sands or methane clathrates are extensively exploited.[51]
The popular media and the public often confuse global warming with the ozone hole, i.e., the destruction of
stratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons.[52] [53] Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship
between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric ozone has had a slight cooling influence on surface
temperatures, while increased tropospheric ozone has had a somewhat larger warming effect.[54]
In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, particulates have indirect effects on the
radiation budget.[58] Sulfates act as cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller
cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets,
known as the Twomey effect.[59] This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth
of raindrops and makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight, known as the Albrecht effect.[60] Indirect
effects are most noticeable in marine stratiform clouds, and have very little radiative effect on convective clouds.
Indirect effects of particulates represent the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.[61]
Soot may cool or warm the surface, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited. Atmospheric soot directly
absorb solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools the surface. In isolated areas with high soot production,
such as rural India, as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric
brown clouds.[62] When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can
also directly heat the surface.[63] The influences of particulates, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the
tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics
and southern hemisphere.[64]
Global warming 5
Solar variation
Variations in solar output have been the cause of past climate
changes.[65] The effect of changes in solar forcing in recent decades is
uncertain, but small, with some studies showing a slight cooling
effect,[66] while others studies suggest a slight warming effect.[31] [67]
[68] [69]
A related hypothesis, proposed by Henrik Svensmark, is that magnetic activity of the sun deflects cosmic rays that
may influence the generation of cloud condensation nuclei and thereby affect the climate.[71] Other research has
found no relation between warming in recent decades and cosmic rays.[72] [73] The influence of cosmic rays on cloud
cover is about a factor of 100 lower than needed to explain the observed changes in clouds or to be a significant
contributor to present-day climate change.[74]
Feedback
Feedback is a process in which changing one quantity changes a second quantity, and the change in the second
quantity in turn changes the first. Positive feedback increases the change in the first quantity while negative feedback
reduces it. Feedback is important in the study of global warming because it may amplify or diminish the effect of a
particular process. The main positive feedback in global warming is the tendency of warming to increase the amount
of water vapor in the atmosphere, a significant greenhouse gas. The main negative feedback is radiative cooling,
which increases as the fourth power of temperature; the amount of heat radiated from the Earth into space increases
with the temperature of Earth's surface and atmosphere. Imperfect understanding of feedbacks is a major cause of
uncertainty and concern about global warming. A wide range of potential feedback process exist, such as Arctic
methane release and ice-albedo feedback. Consequentially, potential tipping points may exist, which may have the
potential to cause abrupt climate change.[75]
Climate models
Calculations of global warming prepared in or before 2001 from a range of climate models under the SRES A2 emissions scenario, which assumes
no action is taken to reduce emissions and regionally divided economic development.
Global warming 6
The geographic distribution of surface warming during the 21st century calculated by the HadCM3 climate model if a business as usual scenario is
assumed for economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. In this figure, the globally averaged warming corresponds to 3.0 °C (5.4 °F).
The main tools for projecting future climate changes are mathematical models based on physical principles including
fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and radiative transfer. Although they attempt to include as many processes as
possible, simplifications of the actual climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer
power and limitations in knowledge of the climate system. All modern climate models are in fact combinations of
models for different parts of the Earth. These include an atmospheric model for air movement, temperature, clouds,
and other atmospheric properties; an ocean model that predicts temperature, salt content, and circulation of ocean
waters; models for ice cover on land and sea; and a model of heat and moisture transfer from soil and vegetation to
the atmosphere. Some models also include treatments of chemical and biological processes.[76] Warming due to
increasing levels of greenhouse gases is not an assumption of the models; rather, it is an end result from the
interaction of greenhouse gases with radiative transfer and other physical processes.[77] Although much of the
variation in model outcomes depends on the greenhouse gas emissions used as inputs, the temperature effect of a
specific greenhouse gas concentration (climate sensitivity) varies depending on the model used. The representation
of clouds is one of the main sources of uncertainty in present-generation models.[78]
Global climate model projections of future climate most often have used estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from
the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). In addition to human-caused emissions, some models also
include a simulation of the carbon cycle; this generally shows a positive feedback, though this response is uncertain.
Some observational studies also show a positive feedback.[79] [80] [81] Including uncertainties in future greenhouse
gas concentrations and climate sensitivity, the IPCC anticipates a warming of 1.1 °C to 6.4 °C (2.0 °F to 11.5 °F) by
the end of the 21st century, relative to 1980–1999.[2]
Models are also used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change by comparing the observed changes to
those that the models project from various natural and human-derived causes. Although these models do not
unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or
human effects, they do indicate that the warming since 1970 is dominated by man-made greenhouse gas
emissions.[31]
The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates.[82] Current
climate models produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes over the last century, but do not
simulate all aspects of climate.[43] Not all effects of global warming are accurately predicted by the climate models
used by the IPCC. Observed Arctic shrinkage has been faster than that predicted.[83] Precipitation increased
proportional to atmospheric humidity, and hence significantly faster than current global climate models predict.[84]
[85]
Global warming 7
Natural systems
Global warming has been detected in a number of systems. Some of
these changes, e.g., based on the instrumental temperature record, have
been described in the section on temperature changes. Rising sea levels
and observed decreases in snow and ice extent are consistent with
warming.[17] Most of the increase in global average temperature since
the mid-20th century is, with high probability,[D] attributable to
human-induced changes in greenhouse gas concentrations.[88]
Ecological systems
In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, and poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal
ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming.[17] Future climate change is expected to
particularly affect certain ecosystems, including tundra, mangroves, and coral reefs.[89] It is expected that most
ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO2 levels, combined with higher global temperatures.[92]
Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of
ecosystems.[93]
Social systems
Vulnerability of human societies to climate change mainly lies in the effects of extreme weather events rather than
gradual climate change.[94] Impacts of climate change so far include adverse effects on small islands,[95] adverse
effects on indigenous populations in high-latitude areas,[96] and small but discernable effects on human health.[97]
Over the 21st century, climate change is likely to adversely affect hundreds of millions of people through increased
coastal flooding, reductions in water supplies, increased malnutrition and increased health impacts.[98]
Future warming of around 3 ºC (by 2100, relative to 1990-2000) could result in increased crop yields in mid- and
high-latitude areas, but in low-latitude areas, yields could decline, increasing the risk of malnutrition.[95] A similar
regional pattern of net benefits and costs could occur for economic (market-sector) effects.[97] Warming above 3 ºC
Global warming 8
could result in crop yields falling in temperate regions, leading to a reduction in global food production.[99] Most
economic studies suggest losses of world gross domestic product (GDP) for this magnitude of warming.[100] [101]
Mitigation
Reducing the amount of future climate change is called mitigation of climate change. The IPCC defines mitigation as
activities that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, or enhance the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb GHGs
from the atmosphere.[102] Many countries, both developing and developed, are aiming to use cleaner, less polluting,
technologies.[46] :192 Use of these technologies aids mitigation and could result in substantial reductions in CO2
emissions. Policies include targets for emissions reductions, increased use of renewable energy, and increased energy
efficiency. Studies indicate substantial potential for future reductions in emissions.[103] Since even in the most
optimistic scenario, fossil fuels are going to be used for years to come, mitigation may also involve carbon capture
and storage, a process that traps CO2 produced by factories and gas or coal power stations and then stores it, usually
underground.[104]
Adaptation
Other policy responses include adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate change may be planned, e.g., by
local or national government, or spontaneous, i.e., done privately without government intervention.[105] The ability
to adapt is closely linked to social and economic development.[103] Even societies with high capacities to adapt are
still vulnerable to climate change. Planned adaptation is already occurring on a limited basis. The barriers, limits, and
costs of future adaptation are not fully understood.
Geoengineering
Another policy response is engineering of the climate (geoengineering). This policy response is sometimes grouped
together with mitigation.[106] Geoengineering is largely unproven, and reliable cost estimates for it have not yet been
published.[107] Geoengineering encompasses a range of techniques to remove CO2 from the atmosphere or to block
incoming sunlight. As most geoengineering techniques would affect the entire globe, the use of effective techniques,
if they can be developed, would require global public acceptance and an adequate global legal and regulatory
framework.[108]
UNFCCC
Most countries are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).[109] The
ultimate objective of the Convention is to prevent "dangerous" human interference of the climate system.[110] As is
stated in the Convention, this requires that GHGs are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can
adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can proceed in a
sustainable fashion.
The UNFCCC recognizes differences among countries in their responsibility to act on climate change.[111] In the
Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC, most developed countries (listed in Annex I of the treaty) took on legally binding
commitments to reduce their emissions.[112] Policy measures taken in response to these commitments have reduced
emissions.[113] For many developing (non-Annex I) countries, reducing poverty is their overriding aim.[114]
At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in 2009 at Copenhagen, several UNFCCC Parties produced the
Copenhagen Accord.[115] Parties agreeing with the Accord aim to limit the future increase in global mean
temperature to below 2 °C.[116] The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) was held at Cancún in 2010. It produced
an agreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to
meet the 2 °C goal. It also recognized the need to consider strengthening the goal to a global average rise of
Global warming 9
1.5 °C.[117]
There are different views over what the appropriate policy response to climate change should be.[118] [119] These
competing views weigh the benefits of limiting emissions of greenhouse gases against the costs. In general, it seems
likely that climate change will impose greater damages and risks in poorer regions.[120]
Politics
Developed and developing countries have made different arguments over who should bear the burden of economic
costs for cutting emissions. Developing countries often concentrate on per capita emissions, that is, the total
emissions of a country divided by its population.[121] Per capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically
as much as ten times the average in developing countries.[122] This is used to make the argument that the real
problem of climate change is due to the profligate and unsustainable lifestyles of those living in rich countries.[121]
On the other hand, Banuri et al. point out that total carbon emissions,[121] carrying capacity, efficient energy use and
civil and political rights are very important issues. Land is not the same everywhere. Not only the quantity of fossil
fuel use but also the quality of energy use is a key debate point. Efficient energy use supporting technological change
might help reduce excess carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere. The use of fossil fuels for conspicuous consumption
and excessive entertainment are issues that can conflict with civil and political rights. People in developed countries
argue that history has proven the difficulty of implementing fair rationing programs in different countries because
there is no global system of checks and balances or civil liberties.
The Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in 2005, sets legally binding emission limitations for most developed
countries.[112] Developing countries are not subject to limitations. This exemption led the U.S. and Australia to
decide not to ratify the treaty,[123] [124] [125] although Australia did finally ratify the treaty in December 2007.[126]
Debate continued at the Copenhagen climate summit and the Cancún climate summit.
Public opinion
In 2007–2008 Gallup Polls surveyed 127 countries. Over a third of the world's population was unaware of global
warming, with people in developing countries less aware than those in developed, and those in Africa the least
aware. Of those aware, Latin America leads in belief that temperature changes are a result of human activities while
Africa, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few countries from the Former Soviet Union lead in the opposite
belief.[127] In the Western world, opinions over the concept and the appropriate responses are divided. Nick Pidgeon
of Cardiff University said that "results show the different stages of engagement about global warming on each side
of the Atlantic", adding, "The debate in Europe is about what action needs to be taken, while many in the U.S. still
Global warming 10
debate whether climate change is happening."[128] [129] A 2010 poll by the Office of National Statistics found that
75% of UK respondents were at least "fairly convinced" that the world's climate is changing, compared to 87% in a
similar survey in 2006.[130] A January 2011 ICM poll in the UK found 83% of respondents viewed climate change as
a current or imminent threat, while 14% said it was no threat. Opinion was unchanged from an August 2009 poll
asking the same question, though there had been a slight polarisation of opposing views.[131]
A survey in October, 2009 by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press showed decreasing public
perception in the United States that global warming was a serious problem. All political persuasions showed reduced
concern with lowest concern among Republicans, only 35% of whom considered there to be solid evidence of global
warming.[132] The cause of this marked difference in public opinion between the United States and the global public
is uncertain but the hypothesis has been advanced that clearer communication by scientists both directly and through
the media would be helpful in adequately informing the American public of the scientific consensus and the basis for
it.[133] The U.S. public appears to be unaware of the extent of scientific consensus regarding the issue, with 59%
believing that scientists disagree "significantly" on global warming.[134]
By 2010, with 111 countries surveyed, Gallup determined that there was a substantial decrease in the number of
Americans and Europeans who viewed Global Warming as a serious threat. In the United States, a little over half the
population (53%) now viewed it as a serious concern for either themselves or their families; a number 10 percentage
points below the 2008 poll (63%). Latin America had the biggest rise in concern, with 73% saying global warming
was a serious threat to their families.[135]
Other views
Most scientists accept that humans are contributing to observed climate change.[45] [136] National science academies
have called on world leaders for policies to cut global emissions.[137] However, some scientists and non-scientists
question aspects of climate-change science.[138] [139]
Organizations such as the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, conservative commentators, and some
companies such as ExxonMobil have challenged IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with
the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls.[140] [141] [142]
[143]
In the finance industry, Deutsche Bank has set up an institutional climate change investment division
(DBCCA),[144] which has commissioned and published research[145] on the issues and debate surrounding global
warming.[146] Environmental organizations and public figures have emphasized changes in the current climate and
the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to changes in infrastructural needs and emissions reductions.[147]
Some fossil fuel companies have scaled back their efforts in recent years,[148] or called for policies to reduce global
warming.[149]
Etymology
The term global warming was probably first used in its modern sense on 8 August 1975 in a science paper by Wally
Broecker in the journal Science called "Are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming?".[150] [151] [152]
Broecker's choice of words was new and represented a significant recognition that the climate was warming;
previously the phrasing used by scientists was "inadvertent climate modification," because while it was recognized
humans could change the climate, no one was sure which direction it was going.[153] The National Academy of
Sciences first used global warming in a 1979 paper called the Charney Report, it said: "if carbon dioxide continues
to increase, [we find] no reason to doubt that climate changes will result and no reason to believe that these changes
will be negligible."[154] The report made a distinction between referring to surface temperature changes as global
warming, while referring to other changes caused by increased CO2 as climate change.[153]
Global warming became more widely popular after 1988 when NASA climate scientist James Hansen used the term
in a testimony to Congress.[153] He said: "global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high
degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and the observed warming."[155]
Global warming 11
His testimony was widely reported and afterward global warming was commonly used by the press and in public
discourse.[153]
Notes
A. ^ Increase is for years 1905 to 2005. Global surface temperature is defined in the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report as the average of near-surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature. These error bounds
are constructed with a 90% confidence interval.
B. ^ The 2001 joint statement was signed by the national academies of science of Australia, Belgium, Brazil,
Canada, the Caribbean, the People's Republic of China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy,
Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, and the UK. The 2005 statement added Japan, Russia, and the U.S. The 2007
statement added Mexico and South Africa. The Network of African Science Academies, and the Polish Academy
of Sciences have issued separate statements. Professional scientific societies include American Astronomical
Society, American Chemical Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American
Meteorological Society, American Physical Society, American Quaternary Association, Australian
Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences,
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, European Academy of Sciences and Arts, European
Geosciences Union, European Science Foundation, Geological Society of America, Geological Society of
Australia, Geological Society of London-Stratigraphy Commission, InterAcademy Council, International Union
of Geodesy and Geophysics, International Union for Quaternary Research, National Association of Geoscience
Teachers [156], National Research Council (US), Royal Meteorological Society, and World Meteorological
Organization.
C. ^ Note that the greenhouse effect produces an average worldwide temperature increase of about 33 °C (59 °F)
compared to black body predictions without the greenhouse effect, not an average surface temperature of 33 °C
(91 °F). The average worldwide surface temperature is about 14 °C (57 °F).
D. ^ In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, published in 2007, this attribution is given a probability of greater than
90%, based on expert judgement.[157] According to the US National Research Council Report – Understanding
and Responding to Climate Change - published in 2008, "[most] scientists agree that the warming in recent
decades has been caused primarily by human activities that have increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere."[45]
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Global warming 19
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Global warming 20
Further reading
• Association of British Insurers (2005–06) (PDF). Financial Risks of Climate Change (http://www.climatewise.
org.uk/storage/610/financial_risks_of_climate_change.pdf).
• Ammann, Caspar; et al. (2007). "Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient
simulations with the NCAR Climate Simulation Model" (http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/104/10/3713.pdf)
(PDF). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104 (10): 3713–3718.
doi:10.1073/pnas.0605064103. PMC 1810336. PMID 17360418. "Simulations with only natural forcing
components included yield an early 20th century peak warming of ≈0.2 °C (≈1950 AD), which is reduced to
about half by the end of the century because of increased volcanism".
• Barnett, TP; Adam, JC; Lettenmaier, DP; Adam, J. C.; Lettenmaier, D. P. (2005-11-17). "Potential impacts of a
warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions" (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/
v438/n7066/abs/nature04141.html) (abstract). Nature 438 (7066): 303–309. doi:10.1038/nature04141.
PMID 16292301.
• Behrenfeld, MJ; O'malley, RT; Siegel, DA; Mcclain, CR; Sarmiento, JL; Feldman, GC; Milligan, AJ; Falkowski,
PG et al.; et al. (2006-12-07). "Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity" (http://www.icess.
ucsb.edu/~davey/MyPapers/Behrenfeld_etal_2006_Nature.pdf) (PDF). Nature 444 (7120): 752–755.
doi:10.1038/nature05317. PMID 17151666.
• Choi, Onelack; Fisher, Ann (May 2005). "The Impacts of Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change on
Severe Weather Catastrophe Losses: Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and the U.S." (http://www.springerlink.com/
content/m6308777613702q0/). Climate Change 58 (1–2): 149–170. doi:10.1023/A:1023459216609.
• Dyurgerov, Mark B.; Meier, Mark F. (2005) (PDF). Glaciers and the Changing Earth System: a 2004 Snapshot
(http://instaar.colorado.edu/other/download/OP58_dyurgerov_meier.pdf). Institute of Arctic and Alpine
Research Occasional Paper #58. ISSN 0069-6145.
• Emanuel, K (2005-08-04). "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years." (ftp://texmex.
mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdf) (PDF). Nature 436 (7051): 686–688.
doi:10.1038/nature03906. PMID 16056221.
• Hansen, James; et al. (2005-06-03). "Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications" (http://pangea.
stanford.edu/research/Oceans/GES205/Hansen_Science_Earth's Energy Balance.pdf) (PDF). Science 308
(5727): 1431–1435. doi:10.1126/science.1110252. PMID 15860591.
• Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe; Hmelo, Laura R.; Sylva, Sean P. (2003-02-21). "Molecular Fossil Record of Elevated
Methane Levels in Late Pleistocene Coastal Waters". Science 299 (5610): 1214–1217.
doi:10.1126/science.1079601. PMID 12595688.
• Hirsch, Tim (2006-01-11). "Plants revealed as methane source" (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/
4604332.stm). BBC.
• Hoyt, Douglas V.; Schatten, Kenneth H. (1993–11). "A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations,
1700–1992". Journal of Geophysical Research 98 (A11): 18,895–18,906. Bibcode 1993JGR....9818895H.
doi:10.1029/93JA01944.
• Karnaukhov, A. V. (2001). "Role of the Biosphere in the Formation of the Earth’s Climate: The Greenhouse
Catastrophe" (http://avturchin.narod.ru/Green.pdf) (PDF). Biophysics 46 (6).
• Kenneth, James P.; et al. (2003-02-14). Methane Hydrates in Quaternary Climate Change: The Clathrate Gun
Hypothesis (https://www.agu.org/cgi-bin/agubooks?book=ASSP0542960). American Geophysical Union.
• Keppler, Frank; et al. (2006-01-18). "Global Warming – The Blame Is not with the Plants" (http://www.mpg.
de/english/illustrationsDocumentation/documentation/pressReleases/2006/pressRelease200601131/index.
html). Max Planck Society.
• Lean, Judith L.; Wang, Y.M.; Sheeley, N.R. (2002–12). "The effect of increasing solar activity on the Sun's total
and open magnetic flux during multiple cycles: Implications for solar forcing of climate" (abstract). Geophysical
Research Letters 29 (24): 2224. Bibcode 2002GeoRL..29x..77L. doi:10.1029/2002GL015880.
Global warming 21
• Lerner, K. Lee; Lerner, K. Lee; Wilmoth, Brenda (2006-07-26). Environmental issues: essential primary sources.
Thomson Gale. ISBN 1-4144-0625-8.
• Muscheler, Raimund, R; Joos, F; Müller, SA; Snowball, I; et al. (2005-07-28). "Climate: How unusual is today's
solar activity?" (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/raimund/publications/Muscheler_et_al_Nature2005.pdf)
(PDF). Nature 436 (7012): 1084–1087. doi:10.1038/nature04045. PMID 16049429.
• Oerlemans, J. (2005-04-29). "Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records" (http://www.cosis.net/
abstracts/EGU05/04572/EGU05-J-04572.pdf) (PDF). Science 308 (5722): 675–677.
doi:10.1126/science.1107046. PMID 15746388.
• Purse, BV; Mellor, PS; Rogers, DJ; Samuel, AR; Mertens, PP; Baylis, M; et al. (February 2005). "Climate change
and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe" (http://www.nature.com/nrmicro/journal/v3/n2/abs/
nrmicro1090_fs.html) (abstract). Nature Reviews Microbiology 3 (2): 171–181. doi:10.1038/nrmicro1090.
PMID 15685226.
• Revkin, Andrew C (2005-11-05). "Rise in Gases Unmatched by a History in Ancient Ice" (http://www.nytimes.
com/2005/11/25/science/earth/25core.html?ei=5090&en=d5078e33050b2b0c&ex=1290574800&
adxnnl=1&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss). The New York Times.
• Ruddiman, William F. (2005-12-15). Earth's Climate Past and Future (http://www.whfreeman.com/ruddiman/
). New York: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-7167-3741-8.
• Ruddiman, William F. (2005-08-01). Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate.
New Jersey: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-12164-8.
• Solanki, SK; Usoskin, IG; Kromer, B; Schüssler, M; Beer, J; et al. (2004-10-23). "Unusual activity of the Sun
during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years." (http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/
nature02995.pdf) (PDF). Nature 431 (7012): 1084–1087. doi:10.1038/nature02995. PMID 15510145.
• Solanki, Sami K.; et al. (2005-07-28). "Climate: How unusual is today's solar activity? (Reply)" (http://cc.oulu.
fi/~usoskin/personal/sola_nature05.pdf) (PDF). Nature 436 (7050): E4–E5. doi:10.1038/nature04046.
• Sowers, Todd (2006-02-10). "Late Quaternary Atmospheric CH4 Isotope Record Suggests Marine Clathrates Are
Stable". Science 311 (5762): 838–840. doi:10.1126/science.1121235. PMID 16469923.
• Svensmark, Henrik; et al. (2007-02-08). "Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under
atmospheric conditions". Proceedings of the Royal Society A (FirstCite Early Online Publishing) 463 (2078):
385–396. doi:10.1098/rspa.2006.1773.(online version requires registration)
• Walter, KM; Zimov, SA; Chanton, JP; Verbyla, D; Chapin Fs, 3rd; et al. (2006-09-07). "Methane bubbling from
Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming". Nature 443 (7107): 71–75.
doi:10.1038/nature05040. PMID 16957728.
• Wang, Y.-M.; Lean, J.L.; Sheeley, N.R. (2005-05-20). "Modeling the sun's magnetic field and irradiance since
1713" (http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/Wang_2005.pdf) (PDF). Astrophysical Journal 625
(1): 522–538. Bibcode 2005ApJ...625..522W. doi:10.1086/429689.
• Royal Society (2005). "Joint science academies' statement: Global response to climate change" (http://
royalsociety.org/Joint-science-academies-statement-Global-response-to-climate-change/). Retrieved 19 April
2009.
Global warming 22
External links
Research
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.ipcc.ch/) — collection of IPCC reports
• NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/) - Global change research
• NOAA State of the Climate Report (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2011/2) - U.S. and global
monthly state of the climate reports
• United States Global Change Research Program (http://www.globalchange.gov/) - Global climate change
research in the United States
• Climate Change at the National Academies (http://dels.nas.edu/Climate/Climate-Change/
Reports-Academies-Findings) — repository for reports
• Nature Reports Climate Change (http://www.nature.com/climate/index.html) — free-access web resource
• Met Office: Climate change (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/) — UK National Weather Service
• Global Science and Technology Sources on the Internet (http://www.istl.org/01-fall/internet.html) —
extensive commented list of internet resources
• Educational Global Climate Modelling (http://edgcm.columbia.edu/) (EdGCM) — research-quality climate
change simulator
• DISCOVER (http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/) — satellite-based ocean and climate data since 1979 from NASA
• Global Warming Art (http://www.globalwarmingart.com/) — collection of figures and images
Educational
• What Is Global Warming? (http://green.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/gw-overview.
html) — by National Geographic
• Global Climate Change Indicators (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators/) - from NOAA
• NOAA Climate Services (http://www.climate.gov/#understandingClimate) - from NOAA
• Global Warming Frequently Asked Questions (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.
html) — from NOAA
• Understanding Climate Change – Frequently Asked Questions (http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/
climatechange/faqs.jsp) — from UCAR
• Global Climate Change: NASA's Eyes on the Earth (http://climate.jpl.nasa.gov/) — from NASA's JPL and
Caltech
• OurWorld 2.0 (http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/series/climate/) — from the United Nations University
• Pew Center on Global Climate Change (http://www.pewclimate.org/) — business and politics
• Best Effort Global Warming Trajectories – Wolfram Demonstrations Project (http://demonstrations.wolfram.
com/BestEffortGlobalWarmingTrajectories/) — by Harvey Lam
• Koshland Science Museum – Global Warming Facts and Our Future (http://www.koshland-science-museum.
org/exhibitgcc/) — graphical introduction from National Academy of Sciences
• The Discovery of Global Warming – A History (http://www.aip.org/history/climate) — by Spencer R. Weart
from The American Institute of Physics
• Climate Change: Coral Reefs on the Edge (http://site.videoproject.com/coralreefs/) — A video presentation
by Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Auckland
• Climate Change Indicators in the United States (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html) Report
by United States Environmental Protection Agency, 80 pp.
• Global Warming (http://chemistry.beloit.edu/Warming/index.html)
• Video on the effects of global warming on St. Lawrence Island in the Bering Sea (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/
nova/extremeice/thin_01_q_300.html)
Instrumental temperature record 23
Instrumental global surface temperature record since widespread reliable measurements began in the late 19th century; see also [1]
Map of the land-based long-term monitoring stations included in the Global Historical Climatology Network. Colors indicate the length of the
temperature record available at each site.
The instrumental temperature record shows fluctuations of the temperature of the global land surface and oceans.
This data is collected from several thousand meteorological stations, Antarctic research stations and satellite
observations of sea-surface temperature. As seen in the figure, the X axis represents the time, and the Y axis
represents temperature anomaly in degree Celsius. Anomaly means departure from a baseline. In this figure, the
1961–1990 global mean temperature is used as the baseline value. The annual mean global temperature is subtracted
from this base value and the result obtained is plotted on the graph corresponding to the year on X axis. Currently,
the longest-running temperature record is the Central England temperature data series, that starts in 1659. The
longest-running quasi-global record starts in 1850.[2]
Comparison of ground based (blue) and satellite based (red: UAH; green: RSS) records of global surface temperature change from 1979-2009.
Linear trends plotted since 1982.
Instrumental temperature record 25
Global surface temperature change for the period 1980-2004. The blue line is the monthly average, the black line is the annual average and the red
line is the 5-year running average. Data source: http:/ / www. cru. uea. ac. uk/
Most of the observed warming occurred during two periods: 1910 to 1945 and 1976 to 2000; the cooling/plateau
from 1945 to 1976 has been mostly attributed to sulphate aerosol.[14] However, a study in 2008 suggests that the
temperature drop of about 0.3°C in 1945 could be the apparent result of uncorrected instrumental biases in the sea
surface temperature record.[13] Attribution of the temperature change to natural or anthropogenic factors is an
important question: see global warming and attribution of recent climate change.
Land and sea measurements independently show much the same warming since 1860.[15] The data from these
stations show an average surface temperature increase of about 0.74 °C during the last 100 years. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) that the
temperature rise over the 100 year period from 1906–2005 was 0.74 °C [0.56 to 0.92 °C] with a confidence interval
of 90%.
For the last 50 years, the linear warming trend has been 0.13 °C [0.10 to 0.16 °C] per decade according to AR4.
The U.S. National Academy of Sciences, both in its 2002 report to President George W. Bush, and in later
publications, has strongly endorsed evidence of an average global temperature increase in the 20th century.[16]
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report found that the instrumental temperature record for the past century included
urban heat island effects but that these were primarily local, having a negligible influence on global temperature
trends (less than 0.006 °C per decade over land and zero over the oceans).
For more information about the effects or otherwise of urbanization on the temperature record, see the main article:
Urban heat island effect
Instrumental temperature record 26
Spatial variability
Global Land temperature anomaly 1880-2010. Global Ocean temperature anomaly 1880-2010.
The global temperature changes are not uniform over the globe, nor would they be expected to be, whether the
changes were naturally or humanly forced.
Temperature trends from 1901 are positive over most of the world's surface except for Atlantic Ocean south of
Greenland, the south-eastern USA and parts of Bolivia. Warming is strongest over interior land area in Asia and
North America as well as south-eastern Brazil and some area in the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans.
Since 1979 temperatures increase is considerably stronger over land while cooling has been observed over some
oceanic regions in the Pacific Ocean and Southern Hemisphere, the spatial pattern of ocean temperature trend in
those regions is possibly related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Southern Anular Mode.[17]
Seasonal temperature trends are positive over most of the globe but weak cooling is observed over the mid latitudes
of the southern ocean but also over eastern Canada in spring due to strengthening of the North Atlantic Oscillation,
warming is stronger over northern Europe, China and North America in winter, Europe and Asia interior in spring,
Europe and north Africa in summer and northern North America, Greenland and Eastern Asia in autumn. Enhanced
warming over north Eurasia is partly linked to the Northern Anular Mode,[18] [19] while in the southern hemisphere
the trend toward stronger westerlies over the southern ocean favoured a cooling over much of Antarctica with the
exception of the Antarctic Peninsula where strong westerlies decrease cold air outbreak from the south.[20] The
Antarctic Peninsula has warmed by 2.5 °C (4.5 °F) in the past five decades at Bellingshausen Station.[21]
Instrumental temperature record 27
Warmest years
The list of warmest years on record is dominated by years from this millennium; each of the last 10 years
(2001–2010) features as one of the 11 warmest on record. Although the NCDC temperature record begins in 1880,
less accurate reconstructions of earlier temperatures suggest these years may be the warmest for several centuries to
millennia.
The values in the table above are anomalies from the 1901–2000 global mean of 13.9°C.[63] For instance, the
+0.55°C anomaly in 2007 added to the 1901–2000 mean of 13.9°C gives a global average temperature of 14.45 °C
(58.00 °F) for 2007.[64]
The coolest year in the record was 1911.[47]
Warmest Decades
Numerous cycles have been found to influence annual
global mean temperatures. The tropical El Niño-La
Niña cycle and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are the
most well-known of these cycles.[65] An examination of
the average global temperature changes by decades
reveals continuing climate change.[66] Following chart
is from NASA data [67] of combined land-surface air
and sea-surface water temperature anomalies [68].
References
[1] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ figspm-1. htm
[2] Brohan, P., J.J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S.F.B. Tett, P.D. Jones (2006). "Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature
changes: a new dataset from 1850". J. Geophys. Res. 111: D12106. Bibcode 2006JGRD..11112106B. doi:10.1029/2005JD006548.
[3] "Climate monitoring and data sets" (http:/ / www. metoffice. gov. uk/ research/ climate/ climate-monitoring). Met Office. . Retrieved
2011-02-11.
[4] "Datasets & Images – GISS Surface Temperature Analysis" (http:/ / data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp/ ). Goddard Institute for Space Studies. .
Retrieved 2007-07-13.
[5] "GHCN-Monthly Version 2" (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ oa/ climate/ ghcn-monthly/ index. php). NOAA. . Retrieved 2007-07-13.
[6] NCDC State of the Climate Global Analysis, April 2010 (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2010& month=4)
[7] "Global Surface Temperature Anomalies" (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ cmb-faq/ anomalies. html). National Climatic Data Center. .
Retrieved 2010-06-16.
[8] Houghton et al. (eds) (2001). "Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis – Figure 2.6" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/
ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig2-6. htm). IPCC. . Retrieved 2007-07-13.
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[10] (PDF) Guide to the Global Observing System (http:/ / www. wmo. ch/ pages/ prog/ www/ OSY/ Manual/ 488_Guide_2007. pdf). WMO.
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[13] Thompson D.W.J., J.J. Kennedy, J.M. Wallace and P.D. Jones (2008). "A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed
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Instrumental temperature record 31
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antarctica. ac. uk/ met/ gjma/ ). British Antarctic Survey. . Retrieved 2007-07-13.
[22] http:/ / www. cru. uea. ac. uk/ cru/ about/ history/
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"GISS Surface Temperature Analysis" (http:/ / data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp/ ). .
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[27] "GISS Surface Temperature Analysis – Updates to Analysis" (http:/ / data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp/ updates/ ). NASA. . Retrieved
2008-10-16.
[28] UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (http:/ / unfccc. int/ cop3/ resource/ docs/ 1997/ sbsta/
misc06. htm) October 1997
[29] Menne MJ, Frederick HV, Del Greco SA (2005). "Monitoring the health of weather and climate observing networks" (http:/ / ams. confex.
com/ ams/ Annual2005/ techprogram/ paper_84693. htm). 21st International Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS)
for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology. .
[30] "Monitoring the Health of Weather and Climate Observing Networks" (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ oa/ hofn/ ). Health of the Networks.
National Climatic Data Center. .
[31] The Need for a Systems Approach to Climate Observations (http:/ / www. cgd. ucar. edu/ cas/ trenberth. pdf/ sysneedBAMS. pdf) Trenberth,
Karl, and Spence
[32] Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group Weblog (http:/ / climatesci. colorado. edu/ 2006/ 12/ 12/
new-evidence-of-temperature-observing-sites-which-are-poorly-sited-with-resepct-to-the-construction-of-global-average-land-surface-temperature-trends/
)
[33] The Sunday Times, February 14, 2010 (http:/ / www. timesonline. co. uk/ tol/ news/ environment/ article7026317. ece)
[34] Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group Weblog (http:/ / climatesci. org/ 2007/ 06/ 01/
more-on-obtaining-global-historical-climate-network-sites/ )
[35] Brohan, P., J.J. Kennedy, I. Haris, S.F.B. Tett, P.D. Jones (2006). "Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature
changes: a new dataset from 1850" (http:/ / www. cru. uea. ac. uk/ cru/ data/ temperature/ HadCRUT3_accepted. pdf) (PDF). J. Geophys. Res.
111: D12106. Bibcode 2006JGRD..11112106B. doi:10.1029/2005JD006548. .
[36] Folland, C.K., N.A. Rayner, S.J. Brown, T.M. Smith, S.S.P. Shen, D.E. Parker, I. Macadam, P.D. Jones, R.N. Jones, N. Nicholls, D.M.H.
Sexton (2001). "Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861" (http:/ / www. geog. ox. ac. uk/ ~mnew/ teaching/
Online_Articles/ folland_et_al_temp_uncertainties_GRL_2001. PDF) (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters 28: 2621–2624.
Bibcode 2001GeoRL..28.2621F. doi:10.1029/2001GL012877. .
[37] Davey, C.A.; Pielke Sr., R.A. (2007?). Comparing Station Density and Reported Temperature Trends for Land-Surface Sites, 1979-2004
(http:/ / climatesci. colorado. edu/ publications/ pdf/ R-319. pdf). Roger A. Pielke Sr. (submitted to Climatic change). . Retrieved 2007-07-13.
[38] Adequacy of Climate Observing Systems (http:/ / books. nap. edu/ catalog. php?record_id=6424)
[39] NOAA National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program: Proper Siting (http:/ / www. nws. noaa. gov/ om/ coop/ standard. htm)
[40] Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences. (http:/ / www. climatescience. gov/
Library/ sap/ sap1-1/ finalreport/ default. htm) Thomas R. Karl, Susan J. Hassol, Christopher D. Miller, and William L. Murray, editors, 2006.
A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, DC.
[41] Land use/land cover change effects on temperature trends at U.S. Climate Normals stations (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2006. . . /
2006GL026358. shtml)
[42] Mahmood R, Foster SA, Logan D (2006). "The GeoProfile metadata, exposure of instruments, and measurement bias in climatic record
revisited" (http:/ / www3. interscience. wiley. com/ cgi-bin/ abstract/ 112518278/ ABSTRACT). International Journal of Climatology 26 (8):
1091–1124. doi:10.1002/joc.1298. .
[43] Indiana State Climate Office (http:/ / www. agry. purdue. edu/ climate/ / hcn. asp)
[44] Bulleting of the American Meteorological Society (http:/ / pielkeclimatesci. files. wordpress. com/ 2009/ 10/ r-274. pdf) Volume 86 Number
4 April 2005
[45] Examination of Potential Biases in Air Temperature Caused By Poor Station Locations (http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ archive/ 1520-0477/
87/ 8/ pdf/ i1520-0477-87-8-1073. pdf) Peterson, Thomas
[46] Documentation of Uncertainties and Biases Associated with Surface Temperature Measurement Sites for Climate Change Assessment (http:/
/ ams. allenpress. com/ archive/ 1520-0477/ 88/ 6/ pdf/ i1520-0477-88-6-913. pdf) Pielke et alia.
Instrumental temperature record 32
[47] NCDC: The Annual Global (land and ocean combined) Anomalies (ftp:/ / ftp. ncdc. noaa. gov/ pub/ data/ anomalies/ annual. land_ocean.
90S. 90N. df_1901-2000mean. dat)
[48] NCDC: The Annual Global Land Temperature Anomalies (ftp:/ / ftp. ncdc. noaa. gov/ pub/ data/ anomalies/ annual. land. 90S. 90N.
df_1901-2000mean. dat)
[49] NCDC: The Annual Global Ocean Temperature Anomalies (ftp:/ / ftp. ncdc. noaa. gov/ pub/ data/ anomalies/ annual. ocean. 90S. 90N.
df_1901-2000mean. dat)
[50] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2005& month=13
[51] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2010& month=13
[52] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=1998& month=13
[53] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2003& month=13
[54] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2002& month=13
[55] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2006& month=13
[56] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2009& month=13
[57] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2007& month=13
[58] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2004& month=13
[59] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2001& month=13
[60] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2008& month=13
[61] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=1999& month=13
[62] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2000& month=13
[63] NCDC: Global Surface Temperature Anomalies: Global Mean Temperature Estimates (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ cmb-faq/ anomalies.
html#mean)
[64] NCDC State of the Climate Global Analysis, Annual 2007 (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ index. php?report=global& year=2007&
month=13)
[65] Natural Climate Oscillations of Short Duration and the Long Term Climate Warming – Sorting Out the Climate System USGCRP Seminar,
20 March 2000 Updated 13 August, 2004 (http:/ / www. usgcrp. gov/ usgcrp/ seminars/ 000320FO. html)
[66] NASA Research Finds Last Decade was Warmest on Record, 2009 One of Warmest Years (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/ home/ hqnews/ 2010/
jan/ HQ_10-017_Warmest_temps. html)
[67] http:/ / data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp/ tabledata/ GLB. Ts+ dSST. txt
[68] http:/ / data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp/
• IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) WGI Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) (http://www.ipcc.ch/
SPM2feb07.pdf)
• Global average temperature for the last 150 years (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/figspm-1.htm)
and discussion (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/056.htm#fig27) of trends
• Preliminary data from the last 2000 years (ftp://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/pub/mann/mannjones03.pdf)
External links
• The EdGCM project has provided GISTEMP stations in (http://dev.edgcm.columbia.edu/wiki/GISTEMP/)
Google Earth
• GISTemp – A Human View (http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/11/09/gistemp-a-human-view/),
introduction & overview, how it's made.
• Met.office Global-average temperature records (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/
explained/explained5.html), condensed explanation
Temperature record of the past 1000 years 33
According to all major temperature reconstructions published in peer-reviewed journals (see graph), the increase in
temperature in the 20th century and the temperature in the late 20th century is the highest in the record. Attention has
tended to focus on the early work of Michael E. Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1998), whose "hockey stick" graph was
featured in the 2001 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The methodology and data
sets used in creating the Mann et al. (1998) version of the hockey stick graph are disputed by Stephen McIntyre and
Ross McKitrick, but the graph is overall acknowledged by the scientific community.
Temperature record of the past 1000 years 34
Limitations
The apparent differences between the quantitative and qualitative approaches are not fully reconciled. The
reconstructions mentioned above rely on various assumptions to generate their results. If these assumptions do not
hold, the reconstructions would be unreliable. For quantitative reconstructions, the most fundamental assumptions
are that proxy records vary with temperature and that non-temperature factors do not confound the results. In the
historical records temperature fluctuations may be regional rather than hemispheric in scale.
In a letter to Nature (August 10, 2006) Bradley, Hughes and Mann[14] pointed at the original title of their 1998
article: Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties, and limitations[15]
and pointed out more widespread high-resolution data are needed before more confident conclusions can be reached
and that the uncertainties were the point of the article.
References
[1] Houghton 2001 12. Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 439. htm)
[2] "What If … the "Hockey Stick" Were Wrong?" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php/ archives/ 2005/ 01/
what-if-the-hockey-stick-were-wrong/ ). RealClimate. 2005-01-27. .
[3] Osborn, T. J.; Briffa, K. R. (2006). "The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years" (http:/ / www.
sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 311/ 5762/ 841). Science (AAAS) 311 (5762): 841–844. doi:10.1126/science.1120514.
PMID 16469924. .
[4] "A New Take on an Old Millennium" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php/ archives/ 2006/ 02/ a-new-take-on-an-old-millennium/ ).
RealClimate. 2006-02-09. .
[5] http:/ / www. cru. uea. ac. uk/ cru/ info/ milltemp/
[6] Mann ME, Jones PD (August 2003). "Global Surface Temperatures over the Past Two Millennia" (http:/ / www. ngdc. noaa. gov/ paleo/
pubs/ mann2003b/ mann2003b. html). Global Surface Temperatures over the Past Two Millennia 30 (15): 1820. doi:10.1029/2003GL017814.
.
[7] The Hockey Stick Controversy: New Analysis Reproduces Graph of Late 20th Century Temperature Rise - Media Advisory (http:/ / www.
ucar. edu/ news/ releases/ 2005/ ammann. shtml)
[8] R Code for Mann-Bradley-Hughes (MBH) Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction (http:/ / www. cgd. ucar. edu/ ccr/ ammann/
millennium/ CODES_MBH. html)
[9] Wahl ER, Ammann CM (November 2007). "Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, Hughes reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere surface
temperatures: Examination of criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy climate evidence" (http:/ / www. cgd. ucar. edu/ ccr/
ammann/ millennium/ refs/ Wahl_ClimChange2007. pdf) (PDF). Climatic Change 85 (1-2): 33–69. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9105-7. .
[10] Houghton 2001 Figure 2.20: Millennial Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction (blue) and instrumental data (red) from AD
1000 to 1999 (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig2-20. htm)
[11] Houghton 2001 Figure 2.21: Comparison of warm-season and annual mean multi-proxy-based and warm season tree-ring-based millennial
Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig2-21. htm)
[12] Houghton 2001 2.3.5 Summary (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 071. htm)
[13] Powell, Alvin (April 24, 2003). "Sun's warming is global: CfA lecture links solar activity and climate change" (http:/ / www. news. harvard.
edu/ gazette/ 2003/ 04. 24/ 04-sun. html). Harvard University Gazette. . Retrieved 2007-04-17.
[14] Bradley RS, Hughes MK, Mann ME (August 2006). "Authors were clear about hockey-stick uncertainties". Nature 442 (7103): 627.
doi:10.1038/442627b. PMID 16900179.
[15] Mann ME, Bradley RS, Hughes MK (1999). "Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and
limitations" (https:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ paleo/ pubs/ millennium-camera. pdf) (PDF). Geophys. Res. Lett. 26 (6): 759–762.
doi:10.1029/1999GL900070. .
[16] McIntyre S, McKitrick R (2005). "Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/
2005/ 2004GL021750. shtml). Geophys. Res. Lett. 32: L03710. doi:10.1029/2004GL021750. .
[17] (http:/ / www. cru. uea. ac. uk/ ~timo/ paleo/ )
[18] Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley, Malcolm K. Hughes Note on Paper by McIntyre and McKitrick in "Energy and Environment"
(http:/ / www. meteo. psu. edu/ ~mann/ shared/ articles/ EandEPaperProblem. pdf)
[19] Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Ch. 6 (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter6. pdf)
External links
• Houghton, John Theodore, ed (2001). Climate change 2001: the scientific basis: contribution of Working Group I
to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.grida.no/
climate/ipcc_tar/wg1). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-80767-0.
• A collection of various reconstructions of global and local temperature from centuries on up (http://www.ngdc.
noaa.gov/paleo/recons.html)
• An NOAA collection of individual data records (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/data.html)
• Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11676.html)
Historical climatology 37
Historical climatology
Historical climatology is the study of historical changes in climate and their effect on human history and
development. This differs from paleoclimatology which encompasses climate change over the entire history of the
earth. The study seeks to define periods in human history where temperature or precipitation varied from what is
observed in the present day. The primary sources include written records such as sagas, chronicles, maps and local
history literature as well as pictorial representations such as paintings, drawings and even rock art. The
archaeological record is equally important in establishing evidence of settlement, water and land usage.
Human record
Evidence of a warm climate in Europe, for example, comes from
archaeological studies of settlement and farming in the Early Bronze Age at
altitudes now beyond cultivation, such as Dartmoor, Exmoor, the Lake
district and the Pennines in England. The climate appears to have deteriorated
towards the Late Bronze Age however. Settlements and field boundaries have
been found at high altitude in these areas, which are now wild and
uninhabitable. They include Dartmoor and Exmoor as well as the Pennines
and Lake District in the United Kingdom. Grimspound on Dartmoor is well
preserved and shows the standing remains of an extensive settlement in a now
inhospitable environment.
Some parts of the present Saharan desert may have been populated when the
The 16th-century Skálholt map of Norse
climate was cooler and wetter, judging by cave art and other signs of
America
settlement in Prehistoric Central North Africa.
Historical climatology 38
The severe winters affected human life in ways large and small. The
population of Iceland fell by half, but this was perhaps also due to
fluorosis caused by the eruption of the volcano Laki in 1783.Iceland
also suffered failures of cereal crops and people moved away from a
grain-based diet. The Norse colonies in Greenland starved and
vanished (by the 15th century) as crops failed and livestock could not
be maintained through increasingly harsh winters, though Jared
Diamond noted that they had exceeded the agricultural carrying
The last written records of the Norse
capacity before then. In North America, American Indians formed
Greenlanders are from a 1408 marriage in the
church of Hvalsey — today the best-preserved of leagues in response to food shortages. In Southern Europe, in Portugal,
the Norse ruins. snow storms were much more frequent while today they are rare. There
are reports of heavy snowfalls in the winters of 1665, 1744 and 1886.
In contrast to its uncertain beginning, there is a consensus that the Little Ice Age ended in the mid-19th century.
References
[1] Miller GH, Fogel ML, Magee JW, Gagan MK, Clarke SJ, Johnson BJ (July 2005). "Ecosystem Collapse in Pleistocene Australia and a
Human Role in Megafaunal Extinction" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 309/ 5732/ 287). Science 309 (5732): 287–290.
doi:10.1126/science.1111288. PMID 16002615. .
External links
• US Historical Climatology Network (http://cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/ushcn/newushcn.html)
• Historical climatology and the cultural memory of extreme weather events (http://www.eh-resources.org/
podcast/podcast.html#29) - Exploring Environmental History Podcast featuring Christian Pfister
Paleoclimatology 40
Paleoclimatology
Paleoclimatology (also
palaeoclimatology) is the study of
changes in climate taken on the scale
of the entire history of Earth. It uses a
variety of proxy methods from the
Earth and life sciences to obtain data
previously preserved within (e.g.)
rocks, sediments, ice sheets, tree rings,
corals, shells and microfossils; it then
uses these records to determine the
past states of the Earth's various
climate regions and its atmospheric system.
Paleoclimatology has wider implications for climate change today. Scientists often consider past changes in
environment and biodiversity to reflect on the current situation, and specifically the impact of climate on mass
extinctions and biotic recovery.[1]
Climatic information can be obtained through an understanding of changes in tree growth. Generally, trees
respond to changes in climatic variables by speeding up or slowing down growth, which in turn is generally
reflected a greater or lesser thickness in growth rings. Different species, however, respond to changes in
climatic variables in different ways. A tree-ring record is established by compiling information from many
living trees in a specific area. Older intact wood that has escaped decay can extend the time covered by the
record by matching the ring depth changes to contemporary specimens. Using this method some areas have
tree-ring records dating back a few thousand years. Older wood not connected to a contemporary record can be
dated generally with radiocarbon techniques. A tree-ring record can be used to produce information regarding
precipitation, temperature, hydrology, and fire corresponding to a particular area.
On a longer time scale, geologists must refer to the sedimentary record for data.
Sedimentary content
• Sediments, sometimes lithified to form rock, may contain remnants of preserved vegetation, animals, plankton
or pollen, which may be characteristic of certain climatic zones.
• Biomarker molecules such as the alkenones may yield information about their temperature of formation.
• Chemical signatures, particularly Mg/Ca ratio of calcite in Foraminifera tests, can be used to reconstruct past
temperature.
• Isotopic ratios can provide further information. Specifically, the δ18O record responds to changes in
temperature and ice volume, and the δ13C record reflects a range of factors, which are often difficult to
disentangle.
Sedimentary facies
On a longer time scale, the rock record may show signs of sea level rise and fall; further, features such as
"fossilised" sand dunes can be identified. Scientists can get a grasp of long term climate by studying
sedimentary rock going back billions of years. The division of earth history into separate periods is largely
based on visible changes in sedimentary rock layers that demarcate major changes in conditions. Often these
include major shifts in climate.
Corals (see also sclerochronology)
Coral "rings" are similar to tree rings, except they respond to different things, such as the water temperature
and wave action. From this source, certain equipment can be used to derive the sea surface temperature and
water salinity from the past few centuries. The δ18O of coraline red algae provides a useful proxy of sea
surface temperature at high latitudes, where many traditional techniques are limited.[2]
Limitations
The oldest ice core taken was from the Antarctic and dates to 800,000 years old. An international effort is currently
being made in the same location to core to 1.2 million years ago. The deep marine record, the source of most isotopic
data, only exists on oceanic plates, which are eventually subducted — the oldest remaining material is 200 [3] million
years old. Older sediments are also more prone to corruption by diagenesis. Resolution and confidence in the data
decrease over time.
Paleoclimatology 42
Planet's timeline
Knowledge of precise climatic events decreases as the record goes further back in time. Some notable events are
noted below, with a timescale for context.
• Faint young Sun paradox (start)
• Huronian glaciation (~2400Mya Earth completely covered in ice probably due to Great Oxygenation Event)
• Later Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth (~600Mya, Precursor to the Cambrian Explosion)
• Andean-Saharan glaciation (~450Mya)
• Permian-Triassic extinction event (251.4Mya)
• Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (Paleocene-Eocene, 55Mya)
• Younger Dryas/The Big Freeze (~11Kya)
• Holocene climatic optimum (~7-3Kya)
• Climate changes of 535-536 (535-536 AD)
• Medieval warm period (900-1300)
• Little ice age (1300-1800)
• Year Without a Summer (1816)
Millions of Years
Earliest atmosphere
The outgassings of the Earth was stripped away by solar winds early in
the history of the planet until a steady state was established, the first
atmosphere. Based on today's volcanic evidence, this atmosphere
would have contained 60% hydrogen, 20% oxygen (mostly in the form
of water vapor), 10% carbon dioxide, 5 to 7% hydrogen sulfide, and
smaller amounts of nitrogen, carbon monoxide, free hydrogen,
methane and inert gases.
Oxygen content of the atmosphere over the last
A major rainfall led to the buildup of a vast ocean, enriching the other billion years
agents, first carbon dioxide and later nitrogen and inert gases. A major
part of carbon dioxide exhalations were soon dissolved in water and built up carbonate sediments.
Paleoclimatology 43
Second atmosphere
As early as 3.8 billion years ago, water related sediments have been found.[4] About 3.4 billion years ago, nitrogen
was the major part of the then stable second atmosphere. An influence of life has to be taken into account rather soon
since hints on early life forms are to be found as early as 3.5 billion years ago.[5] The fact that this is not in line with
the — compared to today 30% lower — solar radiance of the early sun has been described as the faint young Sun
paradox.
The geological record, however, shows a continually relatively warm
surface during the complete early temperature record of the earth with
the exception of one cold glacial phase about 2.4 billion years ago. In
the late Archean Era an oxygen containing atmosphere began to
develop from photosynthesizing algae. The early basic carbon isotopy
is very much in line with what is found today [6] As Jan Veizer
assumed that not only did we have life as far back as we had rocks, but
there was as much life then as today and the fundamental features of
the carbon cycle were established as early as 4 billion years ago.[6] 500 million years of changes in carbon dioxide
concentrations
Third atmosphere
The accretion of continents about 3.5 billion years ago[7] added plate tectonics, constantly rearranging the continents
and also shaping long-term climate evolution by allowing the transfer of carbon dioxide to large land-based
carbonate storages. Free oxygen did not exist until about 1.7 billion years ago and this can be seen with the
development of the red beds and the end of the banded iron formations. This signifies a shift from a reducing
atmosphere to an oxidising atmosphere. O2 showed major ups and downs until reaching a steady state of more than
15%.[8] The following time span was the Phanerozoic, during which oxygen-breathing metazoan life forms began to
appear.
Precambrian climate
In the first three quarters of the Earth's history, only one major glaciation is to be found in the geological record.
Since about 950 million years ago, the Earth's climate has varied regularly between large-scale or just polar cap wide
glaciation and extensively tropical climates. The time scale for this variation is roughly 140 million years and may be
related to Earth's motion into and out of galactic spiral arms and compared to the previous time, significantly reduced
solar wind.[9]
The climate of the late Precambrian showed some major glaciation events spreading over much of the earth. At this
time the continents were bunched up in the Rodinia supercontinent. Massive deposits of tillites are found and
anomalous isotopic signatures are found, which gave rise to the Snowball Earth hypothesis. As the Proterozoic Eon
drew to a close, the Earth started to warm up. By the dawn of the Cambrian and the Phanerozoic, life forms were
abundant in the Cambrian explosion with average global temperatures of about 22 °C.
Paleoclimatology 44
Phanerozoic climate
Major drivers for the preindustrial ages have been variations of the sun,
volcanic ashes and exhalations, relative movements of the earth
towards the sun and tectonically induced effects as for major sea
currents, watersheds and ocean oscillations. In the early Phanerozoic,
increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have been linked
to driving or amplifying increased global temperatures.[10] Royer et al.
2004[11] found a climate sensitivity for the rest of the Phanerozoic
which was calculated to be similar to today's modern range of values.
The difference in global mean temperatures between a fully glacial 500 million years of climate change
A similar, single event of induced severe climate change after a meteorite impact has been proposed as reason for the
Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction event. Other major thresholds are the Permian-Triassic, and Ordovician-Silurian
extinction events with various reasons suggested.
Paleoclimatology 45
Quaternary sub-era
The Quaternary sub-era includes the current climate. There has been a cycle of ice ages for the past 2.2–2.1 million
years (starting before the Quaternary in the late Neogene Period).
Note in the graphic on the right the strong 120,000-year periodicity of
the cycles, and the striking asymmetry of the curves. This asymmetry
is believed to result from complex interactions of feedback
mechanisms. It has been observed that ice ages deepen by progressive
steps, but the recovery to interglacial conditions occurs in one big step.
Controlling Factors
Short term (104 to 106 years) Ice core data for the past 400,000 years. Note
length of glacial cycles averages ~100,000 years.
Geologically short-term (<120,000 year) temperatures are believed to Blue curve is temperature, green curve is CO2,
be driven by orbital factors (see Milankovitch cycles) amplified by and red curve is windblown glacial dust (loess).
changes in greenhouse gases. The arrangements of land masses on the Today's date is on the left side of the graph.
It has also been suggested that there is some correlation between these galactic cycles and geological periods. The
reason for this is postulated to be that the earth experiences many more impact events while passing through high
density regions of the galaxy. Both the climate changes and sudden impacts may cause, or contribute to, extinction
events.[15]
References
Notes
[1] Sahney, S. and Benton, M.J. (2008). "Recovery from the most profound mass extinction of all time" (http:/ / journals. royalsociety. org/
content/ qq5un1810k7605h5/ fulltext. pdf) (PDF). Proceedings of the Royal Society: Biological 275 (1636): 759. doi:10.1098/rspb.2007.1370.
PMC 2596898. PMID 18198148. .
[2] Halfar, J.; Steneck, R.S.; Joachimski, M.; Kronz, A.; Wanamaker, A.D. (2008). "Coralline red algae as high-resolution climate recorders".
Geology 36: 463. doi:10.1130/G24635A.1.
[3] http:/ / toolserver. org/ ~verisimilus/ Timeline/ Timeline. php?Ma=200
[4] Windley, B. (1984). The Evolving Continents. New York: Wiley Press. ISBN 0471903760.
[5] J. Schopf (1983). Earth’s Earliest Biosphere: Its Origin and Evolution. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0691083231.
[6] Veizer, J. (2005). Celestial climate driver: a perspective from four billion years of the carbon cycle. Geoscience Canada
[7] Veizer (1976). Windley, B.F.. ed. The Early History of the Earth. London: John Wiley and Sons. p. 569.
[8] Summary Chart for the Precambrian (http:/ / www. scotese. com/ precamb_chart. htm)
[9] Shaviv N.J. (2002). "Cosmic Ray Diffusion from the Galactic Spiral Arms, Iron Meteorites and a possible Climatic Connection". Physical
Review Letters 89 (5): 051102. Bibcode 2002PhRvL..89e1102S. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.89.051102. PMID 12144433.
[10] Rosemarie E. Came, John M. Eiler, Jan Veizer, Karem Azmy, Uwe Brand & Christopher R. Weidman (September 2007). "Coupling of
surface temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the Palaeozoic era". Nature 449 (7159): 198–201. doi:10.1038/nature06085.
PMID 17851520.
[11] Royer, Dana L. and Robert A. Berner, Isabel P. Montañez, Neil J. Tabor, David J. Beerling (July 2004). "CO2 as a primary driver of
Phanerozoic climate" (http:/ / www. gsajournals. org/ gsaonline/ ?request=get-document& issn=1052-5173& volume=014& issue=03&
page=0004). GSA Today 14 (3): 4–10. doi:10.1130/1052-5173(2004)014<4:CAAPDO>2.0.CO;2. .
[12] http:/ / www. scotese. com/ earth. htm
[13] Shaviv, NJ, Veizer, J (July 2003). "Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate?". GSA Today 7 (7): 4–10., see also online version (http:/ / www.
gsajournals. org/ perlserv/ ?request=get-document& doi=10. 1130/ 1052-5173(2003)013<0004:CDOPC>2. 0. CO;2) or online discussion
(http:/ / www. sciencebits. com/ ice-ages)
[14] Borrero, Hess et al. (2008). Earth Science: Geology, the Environment, and the Universe. Glencoe: McGraw-Hill. p. 348.
ISBN 0-07-875045-8.
[15] Gillman, M, Erenler, H (2008). "The galactic cycle of extinction". International Journal of Astrobiology 7.
doi:10.1017/S1473550408004047.
[16] Huggett, RJ (2003). Environmental Change the Evolving Ecosphere. Routledge. p. 48. ISBN 0-415-14520-1.
[17] Schmidt, Gavin (2007-06-01). "Clouding the issue of climate" (http:/ / physicsworld. com/ cws/ article/ print/ 30103). Physics World. .
[18] K. S. Carslaw, R. G. Harrison, J. Kirkby (November 2002). "Atmospheric Science: Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate". Science 298 (5599):
1732–7. doi:10.1126/science.1076964. PMID 12459578.
[19] Shaviv, N. J. (2003). "Toward a solution to the early faint Sun paradox: A lower cosmic ray flux from a stronger solar wind". J. Geophys.
Res. 108 (A12): 1437. arXiv:astro-ph/0306477. Bibcode 2003JGRA..108.1437S. doi:10.1029/2003JA009997.
Bibliography
• Bradley, Raymond S. (1985). Quaternary paleoclimatology: methods of paleoclimatic reconstruction. Boston:
Allen & Unwin. ISBN 0-04-551067-9.
• Imbrie, John (1986, c1979). Ice ages: solving the mystery. Cambridge MA: Harvard University Press.
ISBN 0674440757.
• Margulis, Lynn; Sagan, Dorion (1986). Origins of sex: three billion years of genetic recombination. The
Bio-origins series. New Haven: Yale University Press. ISBN 0-300-03340-0.
• Gould, Stephen Jay (1989). Wonderful life, the story of the Burgess Shale. New York: W.W. Norton.
ISBN 0-393-02705-8.
• Crowley, Thomas J.; North, Gerald R. (1996). Paleoclimatology. Oxford monographs on geology and geophysics.
18. Oxford: Clarendon Press. ISBN 0-19-510533-8.
• Karl-Heinz Ludwig: Eine kurze Geschichte des Klimas. Von der Entstehung der Erde bis heute, (A short history
of climate, From the evolution of earth till today) Herbst 2006, ISBN 3-406-54746
• William F. Ruddimann (2001). Earth's Climate — Past and Future. Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN 0-7167-3741-8.
• B. Windley (1984). The Evolving Continents. New York: Wiley Press.
Paleoclimatology 48
• Drummond, Carl N. and Wilkinson, Bruce H. (2006). "Interannual Variability in Climate Data". Journal of
Geology 114: 325–339. Bibcode 2006JG....114..325D. doi:10.1086/500992.
External links
• A Brief Introduction to History of Climate (http://muller.lbl.gov/pages/IceAgeBook/history_of_climate.
html), an excellent overview by Prof. Richard A Muller of UC Berkley.
• NOAA Paleoclimatology (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html)
• AGU Paleoclimatology and climate system dynamics (http://www.agu.org/revgeophys/overpe00/overpe00.
html)
• Paleoclimatology in the 21st century (http://www.nhm.ac.uk/hosted_sites/paleonet/paleo21/pclimate.html)
• Environmental Literacy Council (http://www.enviroliteracy.org/article.php/75.html)
• Climate change and Palaeoclimatology (http://www.earth-pages.com/archive/climate.asp) News Archive
• The Uplift-Weathering Hypothesis (http://www.moraymo.us/uplift_overview.php)
• NASA's GISS paleoclimate site (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/paleo/)
• CalPal — Cologne Radiocarbon Calibration & Paleoclimate Research Package (http://www.calpal.de)
• W. F. Ruddiman (2006). "Ice-driven CO2 feedback on ice volume" (http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/cp/cpd/
2/43/cpd-2-43_p.pdf). Clim. Past 2 (1): 43–55. doi:10.5194/cp-2-43-2006.
• Rapid Climate Change (http://www.aip.org/history/climate/rapid.htm)
• Short history of climate (http://stratus.astr.ucl.ac.be/textbook//pdf/Chapter_5.pdf)
Biofuel
Biofuels are a wide range of fuels which are in some way derived from
biomass. The term covers solid biomass, liquid fuels and various
biogases.[1] Biofuels are gaining increased public and scientific
attention, driven by factors such as oil price spikes, the need for
increased energy security, concern over greenhouse gas emissions from
fossil fuels, and government subsidies.
Ethanol can be used as a fuel for vehicles in its pure form, but it is
usually used as a gasoline additive to increase octane and improve
vehicle emissions. Bioethanol is widely used in the USA and in Brazil.
the International Energy Agency, biofuels have the potential to meet more than a quarter of world demand for
transportation fuels by 2050.[3]
Bioalcohols
Ethanol can be used in petrol engines as a replacement for gasoline; it can be mixed with gasoline to any percentage.
Most existing car petrol engines can run on blends of up to 15% bioethanol with petroleum/gasoline. Ethanol has a
smaller energy density than gasoline, which means it takes more fuel (volume and mass) to produce the same amount
of work. An advantage of ethanol (CH3CH2OH) is that it has a higher octane rating than ethanol-free gasoline
available at roadside gas stations which allows an increase of an engine's compression ratio for increased thermal
efficiency. In high altitude (thin air) locations, some states mandate a mix of gasoline and ethanol as a winter
oxidizer to reduce atmospheric pollution emissions.
Ethanol is also used to fuel bioethanol fireplaces. As they do not require a chimney and are "flueless", bio ethanol
fires[4] are extremely useful for new build homes and apartments without a flue. The downside to these fireplaces, is
that the heat output is slightly less than electric and gas fires.
In the current alcohol-from-corn production model in the United States, considering the total energy consumed by
farm equipment, cultivation, planting, fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, and fungicides made from petroleum,
irrigation systems, harvesting, transport of feedstock to processing plants, fermentation, distillation, drying, transport
to fuel terminals and retail pumps, and lower ethanol fuel energy content, the net energy content value added and
delivered to consumers is very small. And, the net benefit (all things considered) does little to reduce imported oil
Biofuel 50
Biodiesel
Biodiesel can be used in any diesel engine when mixed with mineral
diesel. In some countries manufacturers cover their diesel engines
under warranty for B100 use, although Volkswagen of Germany, for
example, asks drivers to check by telephone with the VW
environmental services department before switching to B100. B100
may become more viscous at lower temperatures, depending on the
feedstock used. In most cases, biodiesel is compatible with diesel
engines from 1994 onwards, which use 'Viton' (by DuPont) synthetic In some countries biodiesel is less expensive than
rubber in their mechanical fuel injection systems. conventional diesel.
this depends on the fuel rail design. Since biodiesel is an effective solvent and cleans residues deposited by mineral
diesel, engine filters may need to be replaced more often, as the biofuel dissolves old deposits in the fuel tank and
pipes. It also effectively cleans the engine combustion chamber of carbon deposits, helping to maintain efficiency. In
many European countries, a 5% biodiesel blend is widely used and is available at thousands of gas stations.[14] [15]
Biodiesel is also an oxygenated fuel, meaning that it contains a reduced amount of carbon and higher hydrogen and
oxygen content than fossil diesel. This improves the combustion of fossil diesel and reduces the particulate emissions
from un-burnt carbon.
Biodiesel is also safe to handle and transport because it is as biodegradable as sugar, 10 times less toxic than table
salt, and has a high flash point of about 300 F (148 C) compared to petroleum diesel fuel, which has a flash point of
125 F (52 C).[16]
In the USA, more than 80% of commercial trucks and city buses run on diesel. The emerging US biodiesel market is
estimated to have grown 200% from 2004 to 2005. "By the end of 2006 biodiesel production was estimated to
increase fourfold [from 2004] to more than 1 billion gallons".[17]
Green diesel
Green diesel, also known as renewable diesel, is a form of diesel fuel which is derived from renewable feedstock
rather than the fossil feedstock used in most diesel fuels. Green diesel feedstock can be sourced from a variety of oils
including canola, algae, jatropha and salicornia in addition to tallow. Green diesel uses traditional fractional
distillation to process the oils, not to be confused with biodiesel which is chemically quite different and processed
using transesterification.
“Green Diesel” as commonly known in Ireland should not be confused with dyed green diesel sold at a lower tax rate
for agriculture purposes, using the dye allows custom officers to determine if a person is using the cheaper diesel in
higher taxed applications such as commercial haulage or cars.[18]
Biofuel 52
Vegetable oil
Straight unmodified edible vegetable oil is generally not used as fuel, but
lower quality oil can and has been used for this purpose. Used vegetable oil is
increasingly being processed into biodiesel, or (more rarely) cleaned of water
and particulates and used as a fuel.
Also here, as with 100% biodiesel (B100), to ensure that the fuel injectors
atomize the vegetable oil in the correct pattern for efficient combustion,
vegetable oil fuel must be heated to reduce its viscosity to that of diesel, either
by electric coils or heat exchangers. This is easier in warm or temperate
climates. Big corporations like MAN B&W Diesel, Wärtsilä, and Deutz AG as
well as a number of smaller companies such as Elsbett offer engines that are
compatible with straight vegetable oil, without the need for after-market
modifications.
Vegetable oil can also be used in many older diesel engines that do not use
common rail or unit injection electronic diesel injection systems. Due to the
design of the combustion chambers in indirect injection engines, these are the
best engines for use with vegetable oil. This system allows the relatively larger
oil molecules more time to burn. Some older engines, especially Mercedes are
driven experimentally by enthusiasts without any conversion, a handful of
drivers have experienced limited success with earlier pre-"Pumpe Duse" VW
TDI engines and other similar engines with direct injection. Several
companies like Elsbett or Wolf [19] have developed professional conversion
kits and successfully installed hundreds of them over the last decades.
Filtered waste vegetable oil
Oils and fats can be hydrogenated to give a diesel substitute. The resulting
product is a straight chain hydrocarbon with a high cetane number, low in aromatics and sulfur and does not contain
oxygen. Hydrogenated oils can be blended with diesel in all proportions Hydrogenated oils have several advantages
over biodiesel, including good performance at low temperatures, no storage stability problems and no susceptibility
to microbial attack.[20]
Biofuel 53
Bioethers
Bio ethers (also referred to as fuel ethers or oxygenated fuels) are cost-effective compounds that act as octane rating
enhancers. They also enhance engine performance, whilst significantly reducing engine wear and toxic exhaust
emissions. Greatly reducing the amount of ground-level ozone, they contribute to the quality of the air we
breathe.[21] [22]
Biogas
Syngas
Syngas, a mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen, is produced by partial combustion of biomass, that is,
combustion with an amount of oxygen that is not sufficient to convert the biomass completely to carbon dioxide and
water.[20] Before partial combustion the biomass is dried, and sometimes pyrolysed. The resulting gas mixture,
syngas, is more efficient than direct combustion of the original biofuel; more of the energy contained in the fuel is
extracted.
• Syngas may be burned directly in internal combustion engines or turbines. The wood gas generator is a
wood-fueled gasification reactor mounted on an internal combustion engine.
• Syngas can be used to produce methanol, DME and hydrogen, or converted via the Fischer-Tropsch process to
produce a diesel substitute, or a mixture of alcohols that can be blended into gasoline. Gasification normally relies
on temperatures >700°C.
• Lower temperature gasification is desirable when co-producing biochar but results in a Syngas polluted with tar.
Solid biofuels
Examples include wood, sawdust, grass cuttings, domestic refuse, charcoal, agricultural waste, non-food energy
crops (see picture), and dried manure.
When raw biomass is already in a suitable form (such as firewood), it can burn directly in a stove or furnace to
provide heat or raise steam. When raw biomass is in an inconvenient form (such as sawdust, wood chips, grass,
urban waste wood, agricultural residues), the typical process is to densify the biomass. This process includes
grinding the raw biomass to an appropriate particulate size (known as hogfuel), which depending on the densification
type can be from 1 to 3 cm (1 in), which is then concentrated into a fuel product. The current types of processes are
wood pellet, cube, or puck. The pellet process is most common in Europe and is typically a pure wood product. The
other types of densification are larger in size compared to a pellet and are compatible with a broad range of input
Biofuel 54
feedstocks. The resulting densified fuel is easier to transport and feed into thermal generation systems such as
boilers.
A problem with the combustion of raw biomass is that it emits considerable amounts of pollutants such as
particulates and PAHs (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons). Even modern pellet boilers generate much more
pollutants than oil or natural gas boilers. Pellets made from agricultural residues are usually worse than wood pellets,
producing much larger emissions of dioxins and chlorophenols.[25]
Notwithstanding the above noted study, numerous studies have shown that biomass fuels have significantly less
impact on the environment than fossil based fuels. Of note is the U.S. Department of Energy Laboratory, Operated
by Midwest Research Institute Biomass Power and Conventional Fossil Systems with and without CO2
Sequestration – Comparing the Energy Balance, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economics Study. Power
generation emits significant amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs), mainly carbon dioxide (CO2). Sequestering CO2
from the power plant flue gas can significantly reduce the GHGs from the power plant itself, but this is not the total
picture. CO2 capture and sequestration consumes additional energy, thus lowering the plant's fuel-to-electricity
efficiency. To compensate for this, more fossil fuel must be procured and consumed to make up for lost capacity.
Taking this into consideration, the global warming potential (GWP), which is a combination of CO2, methane (CH4),
and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, and energy balance of the system need to be examined using a life cycle
assessment. This takes into account the upstream processes which remain constant after CO2 sequestration as well as
the steps required for additional power generation. firing biomass instead of coal led to a 148% reduction in GWP.
A derivative of solid biofuel is biochar, which is produced by biomass pyrolysis. Bio-char made from agricultural
waste can substitute for wood charcoal. As wood stock becomes scarce this alternative is gaining ground. In eastern
Democratic Republic of Congo, for example, biomass briquettes are being marketed as an alternative to charcoal in
order to protect Virunga National Park from deforestation associated with charcoal production.[26]
Advanced biofuels
Advanced biofuels can refer to any biofuel made by a novel method and/or that gives a better product than current
biofuels.[27] Second, third, and fourth generation biofuels are also called advanced biofuels.
Biofuels by region
There are international organizations such as IEA Bioenergy,[52] established in 1978 by the OECD International
Energy Agency (IEA), with the aim of improving cooperation and information exchange between countries that have
national programs in bioenergy research, development and deployment. The U.N. International Biofuels Forum is
formed by Brazil, China, India, South Africa, the United States and the European Commission.[53] The world leaders
in biofuel development and use are Brazil, United States, France, Sweden and Germany. Russia also has 22% of
worlds forest[54] and is a big biomass (solid biofuels) supplier. In 2010, Russian pulp and paper maker, Vyborgskaya
Cellulose, said they would be producing pellets that can be used in heat and electricity generation from its plant in
Vyborg by the end of the year.[55] The plant will eventually produce about 900,000 tons of pellets per year, making it
the largest in the world once operational.
References
[1] Demirbas, A. (2009). "Political, economic and environmental impacts of biofuels: A review". Applied Energy 86: S108–S117.
doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.04.036.
[2] "Towards Sustainable Production and Use of Resources: Assessing Biofuels" (http:/ / www. unep. fr/ scp/ rpanel/ pdf/
Assessing_Biofuels_Full_Report. pdf). United Nations Environment Programme. 2009-10-16. . Retrieved 2009-10-24.
[3] "IEA says biofuels can displace 27% of transportation fuels by 2050 Washington" (http:/ / www. platts. com/ RSSFeedDetailedNews/
RSSFeed/ Oil/ 6017103). Platts. 20 April 2011. .
[4] Bio ethanol fires information bio ethanol fireplace (http:/ / www. prestigiousfires. co. uk). (2009)
[5] Andrew Bounds (2007-09-10). "OECD warns against biofuels subsidies" (http:/ / www. ft. com/ cms/ s/ 0/
e780d216-5fd5-11dc-b0fe-0000779fd2ac. html). Financial Times. . Retrieved 2008-03-07.
[6] see "Breaking the Biological Barriers to Cellulosic Ethanol"
[7] Brinkman, N. et al., "Well-to-Wheels Analysis of Advanced/Vehicle Systems", 2005.
[8] Farrell, A.E. et al. (2006) "Ethanol can Contribute to Energy and Environmental Goals", Science, 311, 506-8.
[9] Hammerschlag, R. 2006. "Ethanol's Energy Return on Investment: A Survey of the Literature 1999-Present", Environ. Sci. Technol., 40,
1744-50.
[10] "With only 2/3 the energy of gasoline, ethanol costs more per mile" (http:/ / zfacts. com/ p/ 436. html). zFacts.com. 2007-04-27. . Retrieved
2008-03-07.
[11] "Hydrogen Solar home" (http:/ / www. hydrogensolar. com/ ). Hydrogensolar.com. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[12] "ButylFuel, LLC Main Page" (http:/ / www. butanol. com/ ). Butanol.com. 2005-08-15. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[13] Evans, Jon (14 January 2008). "Biofuels aim higher" (http:/ / www. biofpr. com/ details/ feature/ 102347/ Biofuels_aim_higher. html).
Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining (BioFPR). . Retrieved 2008-12-03.
[14] "ADM Biodiesel: Hamburg, Leer, Mainz" (http:/ / www. biodiesel. de/ ). Biodiesel.de. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[15] RRI Limited for Biodiesel Filling Stations. "Welcome to Biodiesel Filling Stations" (http:/ / www. biodieselfillingstations. co. uk).
Biodieselfillingstations.co.uk. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[16] "Biofuels Facts" (http:/ / www. hempcar. org/ biofacts. shtml). Hempcar.org. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[17] THE FUTURIST (http:/ / www. wfs. org/ futcontja07. htm), Will Thurmond (http:/ / www. prleap. com/ pr/ 80099/ ). July–August 2007
[18] "Customs seize illegal fuel" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ uk_news/ northern_ireland/ 4083017. stm). BBC News. 2004-12-09. .
Retrieved 2010-07-25.
[19] http:/ / www. wolf-pflanzenoel-technik. de/
[20] Evans, G. "Liquid Transport Biofuels - Technology Status Report" (http:/ / www. nnfcc. co. uk/ metadot/ index.
pl?id=6597;isa=DBRow;op=show;dbview_id=2457), National Non-Food Crops Centre, 2008-04-14. Retrieved on 2009-05-11.
[21] "Council Directive 85/536/EEC of 5 December 1985 on crude-oil savings through the use of substitute fuel components in petrol" (http:/ /
eur-lex. europa. eu/ LexUriServ/ LexUriServ. do?uri=CELEX:31985L0536:EN:HTML). Eur-lex.europa.eu. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[22] "Microsoft Word - IA 55 EN.doc" (http:/ / www. europarl. europa. eu/ registre/ docs_autres_institutions/ commission_europeenne/ sec/
2007/ 0055/ COM_SEC(2007)0055_EN. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
Biofuel 57
[23] Redman, G., The Andersons Centre. "Assessment of on-farm AD in the UK" (http:/ / www. nnfcc. co. uk/ metadot/ index.
pl?id=7198;isa=DBRow;op=show;dbview_id=2457), National Non-Food Crops Centre, 2008-06-09. Retrieved on 2009-05-11.
[24] "BIOGAS: No bull, manure can power your farm." Farmers Guardian (September 25, 2009): 12. General OneFile. Gale.
[25] Cedric Briens, Jan Piskorz and Franco Berruti, "Biomass Valorization for Fuel and Chemicals Production -- A Review," 2008. International
Journal of Chemical Reactor Engineering, 6, R2
[26] "Threat to Great Apes Highlighted at Virunga Meeting" (http:/ / www. america. gov/ st/ env-english/ 2008/ July/
20080711150646mlenuhret0. 9135401. html). America.gov. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[27] National Non-Food Crops Centre. NNFCC Newsletter - Issue 19. Advanced Biofuels (http:/ / www. nnfcc. co. uk/ publications/
nnfcc-newsletter-issue-19. -advanced-biofuels)
[28] Oliver R. Inderwildi, David A. King (2009). "Quo Vadis Biofuels". Energy & Environmental Science 2 (4): 343. doi:10.1039/b822951c.
[29] Chris Somerville. "Development of Cellulosic Biofuels" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070927005653/ http:/ / www. usda. gov/ oce/
forum/ 2007+ Speeches/ PDF+ PPT/ CSomerville. pdf) (PDF). U.S. Dept. of Agriculture. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. usda. gov/
oce/ forum/ 2007+ Speeches/ PDF+ PPT/ CSomerville. pdf) on 2007-09-27. . Retrieved 2008-01-15.
[30] EurekAlert. (2009). 15 new highly stable fungal enzyme catalysts that efficiently break down cellulose into sugars at high temperatures
(http:/ / www. eurekalert. org/ pub_releases/ 2009-03/ ciot-csc032009. php).
[31] Yeoman CJ, Han Y, Dodd D, Schroeder CM, Mackie RI, Cant IK. (2010) "Thermostable enzymes as biocatalysts in the biofuel industry"
(http:/ / www. ncbi. nlm. nih. gov/ pubmed/ 20359453). .. Advances in Applied Microbiology 70: 1 - 55
[32] "Jack Pronk's elephant yeast" (http:/ / www. tnw. tudelft. nl/ live/ pagina. jsp?id=811b8180-6e76-47bb-8ee6-57f89b0d8b17& lang=en).
Tnw.tudelft.nl. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[33] "Straw to ethanol plant in Sas van Gent" (http:/ / www. tnw. tudelft. nl/ live/ pagina. jsp?id=811b8180-6e76-47bb-8ee6-57f89b0d8b17&
lang=en). Tnw.tudelft.nl. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[34] "Fill her up please, and make it myco-diesel" (http:/ / afp. google. com/ article/ ALeqM5gz4TxqoKipVTNNcSTylCrzgb0IAg). AFP. .
Retrieved 2008-11-04.
[35] *Fisher, Lawrence M. April 24th 2007. "Carbon gas is explored as a source of ethanol" New York Times.
[36] *Voegele, E. August 27th 2009. "LanzaTech develops waste gas to ethanol technology", Ethanol Producer Magazine
[37] Matthew Aylott (2010-09-24). "Forget palm oil and soya, microalgae is the next big biofuel source" (http:/ / www. theecologist. org/
blogs_and_comments/ commentators/ other_comments/ 609556/ forget_palm_oil_and_soya_microalgae_is_the_next_big_biofuel_source.
html). The Ecologist. . Retrieved 2011-02-22.
[38] Eviana Hartman (2008-01-06). "A Promising Oil Alternative: Algae Energy" (http:/ / www. washingtonpost. com/ wp-dyn/ content/ article/
2008/ 01/ 03/ AR2008010303907. html). Washington Post. . Retrieved 2008-01-15.
[39] astutech ltd / wordserver 2.0. "Globeco biodegradable bio-diesel" (http:/ / www. globeco. co. uk/ Bio-diesel_news_0007. html).
Globeco.co.uk. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[40] FriendsOfEthanol.com. "Friends of Ethanol.com biodegradable ethanol" (http:/ / www. friendsofethanol. com/ facts. html).
Friendsofethanol.com. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[41] Low Cost Algae Production System Introduced (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20071011212956/ http:/ / energy-arizona. org/ archive/
200708280001_low_cost_algae_production_system_introduced. php)
[42] "New algal extraction techniques using helix bioreactor." Industrial Bioprocessing (April 3, 2009): NA. General OneFile. Gale.
[43] "Nanofarming technology harvest biofuel oils without harming algae" (http:/ / www. physorg. com/ news158333205. html). Physorg.com.
2009-04-07. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[44] (http:/ / algaloildiesel. wetpaint. com/ page/ PROPAGATION+ OF+ ALGAE+ BY+ USE+ OF+ COVERED+ PONDS),
[45] "Prospects For The Biodiesel Industry - Algaloildiesel, Llp" (http:/ / algaloildiesel. wetpaint. com/ page/ PROSPECTS+ FOR+ THE+
BIODIESEL+ INDUSTRY). Algaloildiesel.wetpaint.com. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[46] "Seaweed Biofuels: Production of Biogas and Bioethanol from Brown Macroalgae". Amazon.com. ASIN 3639153073.
[47] University of Oklahoma (2009, January 14) 'Green' Gasoline On The Horizon. ScienceDaily. Retrieved March 9, 2010, from http:/ / www.
sciencedaily. com/ releases/ 2009/ 01/ 090113155902. htm
[48] http:/ / www. gtmresearch. com/ report/ third-and-fourth-generation-biofuels
[49] "greenfuelonline.com" (http:/ / www. greenfuelonline. com/ ). greenfuelonline.com. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[50] Kalita, D (2008). "Hydrocarbon plant—New source of energy for future". Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 12 (2): 455–471.
doi:10.1016/j.rser.2006.07.008. ISSN 13640321.
[51] K. G. Ramawat (2010). Desert Plants: Biology and Biotechnology (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=UNaNWN4zkqQC& pg=PA37).
Springer. pp. 37–. ISBN 9783642025495. . Retrieved 23 August 2010.
[52] "IEA bioenergy" (http:/ / www. ieabioenergy. com/ IEABioenergy. aspx). IEA bioenergy. . Retrieved 2010-07-14.
[53] "Press Conference Launching International Biofuels Forum" (http:/ / www. un. org/ News/ briefings/ docs/ 2007/ 070302_Biofuels. doc.
htm). United Nations Department of Public Information. 2007-03-02. . Retrieved 2008-01-15.
[54] Greenpeace - The Russian Forests (http:/ / archive. greenpeace. org/ comms/ cbio/ russia. html)
[55] Moscow Times - World's Largest Pellet Plant to Start by Year-End (http:/ / www. themoscowtimes. com/ business/ article/
worlds-largest-pellet-plant-to-start-by-year-end/ 421905. html)
Biofuel 58
Further reading
• Caye Drapcho, Nhuan Phú Nghiêm, Terry Walker (August 2008). Biofuels Engineering Process Technology
(http://www.mhprofessional.com/product.php?isbn=0071487492). [McGraw-Hill]. ISBN 9780071487498.
• IChemE Energy Conversion Technology Subject Group (May 2009). A Biofuels Compendium (http://www.
icheme.org/biofuelscompendium). [IChemE]. ISBN 9780852955338.
• Fuel Quality Directive Impact Assessment (http://www.europarl.europa.eu/registre/docs_autres_institutions/
commission_europeenne/sec/2007/0055/COM_SEC(2007)0055_EN.pdf)
• Biofuels Journal (http://www.future-science.com/loi/bfs)
• James Smith (November 2010). Biofuels and the Globalisation of Risk (http://www.zedbooks.co.uk/book.
asp?bookdetail=4363). [Zed Books]. ISBN 9781848135727.
• Mitchell, Donald (2010) (Available in PDF). Biofuels in Africa: Opportunities, Prospects, and Challenges (http://
africaknowledgelab.worldbank.org/akl/node/67). The World Bank, Washington, D.C.. ISBN 978-0821385166.
External links
• Investing in Alternative (http://www.investinginalternative.com/Moringa_Investment_Investin.html) - Biofuel
Research
• Alternative Fueling Station Locator (http://www.eere.energy.gov/afdc/fuels/stations_locator.html) (EERE).
• Towards Sustainable Production and Use of Resources: Assessing Biofuels (http://www.unep.fr/scp/rpanel/
pdf/Assessing_Biofuels_Full_Report.pdf) by the United Nations Environment Programme, October 2009.
• Biofuels guidance for businesses, including permits and licences required (http://www.netregs.gov.uk/netregs/
94953.aspx) on NetRegs.gov.uk
• How Much Water Does It Take to Make Electricity? (http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/apr08/6182) -- Natural
gas requires the least water to produce energy, some biofuels the most, according to a new study.
• International Conference on Biofuels Standards (http://ec.europa.eu/energy/res/events/biofuels.htm) -
European Union Biofuels Standardization
• International Energy Agency: Biofuels for Transport - An International Perspective (http://www.iea.org/
textbase/nppdf/free/2004/biofuels2004.pdf)
• Biofuels from Biomass: Technology and Policy Considerations (http://web.mit.edu/professional/
short-programs/courses/biofuels_biomass.html) Thorough overview from MIT
• The Guardian news on biofuels (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/biofuels)
• The U.S. DOE Clean Cities Program (http://www1.eere.energy.gov/cleancities/) - links to all of the Clean
Cities coalitions that exist throughout the U.S. (there are 87 of them)
Earth's energy budget 59
Outgoing energy
The average albedo (reflectivity) of the Earth is about 0.3, which means that 30% of the incident solar energy is
reflected into space, while 70% is absorbed by the Earth and reradiated as infrared. The planet's albedo varies from
month to month and place to place, but 0.3 is the average figure. The contributions from geothermal and tidal power
sources are so small that they are omitted from the following calculations.
30% of the incident energy is reflected, consisting of:
• 6% reflected from the atmosphere
• 20% reflected from clouds
• 4% reflected from the ground (including land, water and ice)
The remaining 70% of the incident energy is
absorbed:
• 51% is absorbed by land and water, and
then emerges in the following ways:
• 23% is transferred back into the
atmosphere as latent heat by the
evaporation of water, called latent
heat flux
• 7% is transferred back into the
atmosphere by heated rising air, called
Sensible heat flux
• 6% is radiated directly into space
• 15% is transferred into the atmosphere
by radiation, then reradiated into Earth's longwave thermal radiation intensity, from clouds, atmosphere and ground
space
• 19% is absorbed by the atmosphere and clouds, including:
• 16% reradiated into space
• 3% transferred to clouds, from where it is radiated back into space
When the Earth is at thermal equilibrium, the same 70% that is absorbed is reradiated:
Earth's energy budget 61
References
[1] Data to produce this graphic was taken from a NASA publication.
[2] Pollack, H.N.; S. J. Hurter, and J. R. Johnson (1993). "Heat Flow from the Earth's Interior: Analysis of the Global Data Set" (http:/ / www.
agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 1993/ 93RG01249. shtml). Rev. Geophys. 30 (3): pp. 267–280.
[3] J. H. Davies and D. R. Davies, "Earth’s Surface heat flux," Solid Earth, 1, 5–24 (2010), available in pdf form (http:/ / www. solid-earth. net/
1/ 5/ 2010/ se-1-5-2010. pdf) here (accessed 8 October 2010)
[4] (http:/ / mustelid. blogspot. com/ 2005/ 04/ global-warming-is-not-from-waste-heat. html)
[5] Nordell, Bo; Bruno Gervet. Global energy accumulation and net heat emission (http:/ / www. ltu. se/ polopoly_fs/ 1. 5035!nordell-gervet
ijgw. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-12-23.
[6] Connolley, William M. (18 May 2003). "William M. Connolley's page about Fourier 1827: MEMOIRE sur les temperatures du globe terrestre
et des espaces planetaires" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ fourier_1827/ ). William M. Connolley. . Retrieved 5 July 2010.
The difficulty is to precisely quantify the various internal and external factors influencing the radiation balance.
Internal factors include all mechanisms affecting atmospheric composition (volcanism, biological activity, land use
change, human activities etc.). The main external factor is solar radiation. The sun's average luminosity changes little
over time.
External and internal factors are also closely interconnected. Increased solar radiation for example results in higher
average temperatures and higher water vapour content of the atmosphere. Water vapour, a heat trapping gas
absorbing infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface, can lead to either higher temperatures through radiation
forces or lower temperatures as a result of increased cloud formation and hence increased albedo.
Fossil fuel
Fossil fuels are fuels formed by natural processes such as anaerobic
decomposition of buried dead organisms. The age of the organisms and
their resulting fossil fuels is typically millions of years, and sometimes
exceeds 650 million years.[1] The fossil fuels, which contain high
percentages of carbon, include coal, petroleum, and natural gas. Fossil
fuels range from volatile materials with low carbon:hydrogen ratios
like methane, to liquid petroleum to nonvolatile materials composed of
almost pure carbon, like anthracite coal. Methane can be found in
hydrocarbon fields, alone, associated with oil, or in the form of
methane clathrates. It is generally accepted that they formed from the
fossilized remains of dead plants and animals[2] by exposure to heat
and pressure in the Earth's crust over millions of years.[3] This biogenic
Coal, one of the fossil fuels.
theory was first introduced by Georg Agricola in 1556 and later by
Mikhail Lomonosov in the 18th century.
It was estimated by the Energy Information Administration that in 2007 primary sources of energy consisted of
petroleum 36.0%, coal 27.4%, natural gas 23.0%, amounting to an 86.4% share for fossil fuels in primary energy
consumption in the world.[4] Non-fossil sources in 2006 included hydroelectric 6.3%, nuclear 8.5%, and others
(geothermal, solar, tide, wind, wood, waste) amounting to 0.9 percent.[5] World energy consumption was growing
about 2.3% per year.
Fossil fuels are non-renewable resources because they take millions of years to form, and reserves are being depleted
much faster than new ones are being made. The production and use of fossil fuels raise environmental concerns. A
global movement toward the generation of renewable energy is therefore under way to help meet increased energy
needs.
The burning of fossil fuels produces around 21.3 billion tonnes (21.3 gigatonnes) of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year,
but it is estimated that natural processes can only absorb about half of that amount, so there is a net increase of 10.65
billion tonnes of atmospheric carbon dioxide per year (one tonne of atmospheric carbon is equivalent to 44/12 or 3.7
tonnes of carbon dioxide).[6] Carbon dioxide is one of the greenhouse gases that enhances radiative forcing and
contributes to global warming, causing the average surface temperature of the Earth to rise in response, which most
climate scientists agree will cause major adverse effects.
Fossil fuel 63
Origin
Petroleum and natural gas are formed by the anaerobic decomposition of remains of organisms including
phytoplankton and zooplankton that settled to the sea (or lake) bottom in large quantities under anoxic conditions,
millions of years ago. Over geological time, this organic matter, mixed with mud, got buried under heavy layers of
sediment. The resulting high levels of heat and pressure caused the organic matter to chemically alter, first into a
waxy material known as kerogen which is found in oil shales, and then with more heat into liquid and gaseous
hydrocarbons in a process known as catagenesis.
There is a wide range of renewable, or hydrocarbon, compounds in any given fuel mixture. The specific mixture of
hydrocarbons gives a fuel its characteristic properties, such as boiling point, melting point, density, viscosity, etc.
Some fuels like natural gas, for instance, contain only very low boiling, gaseous components. Others such as
gasoline or diesel contain much higher boiling components.
Terrestrial plants, on the other hand, tend to form coal and methane. Many of the coal fields date to the
Carboniferous period of Earth's history. Terrestrial plants also form type III kerogen, a source of natural gas.
Importance
Fossil fuels are of great importance because they can be burned
(oxidized to carbon dioxide and water), producing significant amounts
of energy per unit weight. The use of coal as a fuel predates recorded
history. Coal was used to run furnaces for the melting of metal ore.
Semi-solid hydrocarbons from seeps were also burned in ancient
times,[7] but these materials were mostly used for waterproofing and
embalming.[8]
Prior to the latter half of the 18th century, windmills and watermills provided the energy needed for industry such as
milling flour, sawing wood or pumping water, and burning wood or peat provided domestic heat. The widescale use
of fossil fuels, coal at first and petroleum later, to fire steam engines enabled the Industrial Revolution. At the same
time, gas lights using natural gas or coal gas were coming into wide use. The invention of the internal combustion
engine and its use in
Fossil fuel 64
automobiles and trucks greatly increased the demand for gasoline and
diesel oil, both made from fossil fuels. Other forms of transportation,
railways and aircraft, also required fossil fuels. The other major use for
fossil fuels is in generating electricity and as feedstock for the
petrochemical industry. Tar, a leftover of petroleum extraction, is used
in construction of roads.
Environmental effects
In the United States, more than 90% of
greenhouse gas emissions come from
the combustion of fossil fuels.[18]
Combustion of fossil fuels also
produces other air pollutants, such as
nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, volatile
organic compounds and heavy metals.
Combustion of fossil fuels generates Carbon dioxide variations over the last 400,000 years, showing a rise since the industrial
sulfuric, carbonic, and nitric acids, revolution.
References
[1] Paul Mann, Lisa Gahagan, and Mark B. Gordon, "Tectonic setting of the world's giant oil and gas fields," in Michel T. Halbouty (ed.) Giant
Oil and Gas Fields of the Decade, 1990-1999 (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=mrghwzjeU-AC& pg=PA50& lpg=PA50&
dq="precambrian+ oil"+ halbouty& source=bl& ots=xGS8yx9cUn& sig=kAQvoCdognlM-k0bDI2ZLCj5ri4& hl=en&
ei=bo8_SoSNJZPCsQPYgvS6Dw& sa=X& oi=book_result& ct=result& resnum=1), Tulsa, Okla.: American Association of Petroleum
Geologists, p.50, accessed 22 June 2009.
[2] Dr. Irene Novaczek. "Canada's Fossil Fuel Dependency" (http:/ / www. elements. nb. ca/ theme/ fuels/ irene/ novaczek. htm). Elements. .
Retrieved 2007-01-18.
[3] "Fossil fuel" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070312054557/ http:/ / oaspub. epa. gov/ trs/ trs_proc_qry. navigate_term?p_term_id=7068&
p_term_cd=TERM). EPA. Archived from the original (http:/ / oaspub. epa. gov/ trs/ trs_proc_qry. navigate_term?p_term_id=7068&
p_term_cd=TERM) on March 12, 2007. . Retrieved 2007-01-18.
[4] "U.S. EIA International Energy Statistics" (http:/ / tonto. eia. doe. gov/ cfapps/ ipdbproject/ IEDIndex3. cfm). . Retrieved 2010-01-12.
[5] "International Energy Annual 2006" (http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ iea/ overview. html). . Retrieved 2009-02-08.
[6] "US Department of Energy on greenhouse gases" (http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ oiaf/ 1605/ ggccebro/ chapter1. html). . Retrieved 2007-09-09.
[7] "Encyclopedia Britannica, use of oil seeps in accient times" (http:/ / www. britannica. com/ ebc/ article-50695). . Retrieved 2007-09-09.
[8] Bilkadi, Zayn (1994). "BULLS FROM THE SEA : Ancient Oil Industries". Aramco World. Archived (http:/ / web. archive. org/
20071113215013/ http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20071113215013/ http:/ / www. gr8dubai. com/ oil2. htm) November 13, 2007 at the
Wayback Machine.
[9] Ball, Max W.; Douglas Ball, Daniel S. Turner (1965). This Fascinating Oil Business. Indianapolis: Bobbs-Merrill. ISBN 0-672-50829-X.
[10] Kaldany,, Rashad, Director Oil, Gas, Mining and Chemicals Dept, World Bank (December 13, 2006). "Global Gas Flaring Reduction: A
Time for Action!" (http:/ / www. worldbank. org/ html/ fpd/ ggfrforum06/ kadany. pdf) (PDF). Global Forum on Flaring & Gas Utilization.
Paris. . Retrieved 2007-09-09.
[11] "Oil Sands Global Market Potential 2007" (http:/ / www. prlog. org/ 10026386-oil-sands-global-market-potential-2007. html). . Retrieved
2007-09-09.
[12] "US Department of Energy plans for oil shale development" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070813012953/ http:/ / www. fossil. energy.
gov/ programs/ reserves/ npr/ NPR_Oil_Shale_Program. html). Archived from the original (http:/ / www. fossil. energy. gov/ programs/
reserves/ npr/ NPR_Oil_Shale_Program. html) on August 13, 2007. . Retrieved 2007-09-09.
[13] World Estimated Recoverable Coal (http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ pub/ international/ iea2005/ table82. xls)
[14] World Proved Reserves of Oil and Natural Gas, Most Recent Estimates (http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ emeu/ international/ reserves. xls)
[15] http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ pub/ international/ iealf/ table14. xls
[16] http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ emeu/ international/ RecentPetroleumConsumptionBarrelsperDay. xls
[17] http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ pub/ international/ iealf/ table13. xls
[18] US EPA.2000. Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-1998, Rep. EPA 236-R-00-01. US EPA, Washington, DC,
http:/ / www. epa. gov/ globalwarming
[19] "Electricity Generation" (http:/ / www. ec. gc. ca/ cleanair-airpur/ Electricity-WSDC4D330A-1_En. htm). . Retrieved 2007-03-23.
[20] O'Driscoll, Patrick; Vergano, Dan (2007-03-01). "Fossil fuels are to blame, world scientists conclude" (http:/ / www. usatoday. com/ tech/
science/ 2007-01-30-ipcc-report_x. htm). USA Today. . Retrieved 2010-05-02.
[21] Coal Combustion: Nuclear Resource or Danger (http:/ / www. ornl. gov/ info/ ornlreview/ rev26-34/ text/ colmain. html) - Alex Gabbard
[22] Nuclear proliferation through coal burning (http:/ / www. physics. ohio-state. edu/ ~aubrecht/ coalvsnucMarcon. pdf#page=8) - Gordon J.
Aubrecht, II, Ohio State University
[23] American Coal Ash Association. "CCP Production and Use Survey" (http:/ / www. acaa-usa. org/ PDF/
2005_CCP_Production_and_Use_Figures_Released_by_ACAA. pdf) (PDF). .
[24] "Frequently Asked Questions, Information on Proper Disposal of Compact Fluorescent Light Bulbs (CFLs)" (http:/ / www. energystar. gov/
ia/ partners/ promotions/ change_light/ downloads/ Fact_Sheet_Mercury. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2007-03-19.
[25] Video of Woolsey speech (http:/ / www. law. uh. edu/ eelpj/ symposium. html)
Fossil fuel 68
External links
• "The Coming Energy Crisis?" (http://www.wtrg.com/EnergyCrisis/index.html) - essay by James L. Williams
of WTRG Economics and A. F. Alhajji of Ohio Northern University
• "Powering the Future" (http://www7.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0508/feature1/fulltext.html) - Michael
Parfit (National Geographic)
• "Federal Fossil Fuel Subsidies and Greenhouse Gas Emissions" (http://www.mindfully.org/Energy/
Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies.htm)
• Fossil Fuel Subsidies in Europe (http://archive.greenpeace.org/comms/97/climate/eusub.html)
• Oil companies hit by 'state' cyber attacks (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/01/25/oil_companies_attacked)
Debate
• The Origin of Methane (and Oil) in the Crust of the Earth (http://web.archive.org/web/20021015163818/
www.people.cornell.edu/pages/tg21/usgs.html)-Thomas Gold (Internet Archives)
Global dimming
Global dimming is the gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface that was
observed for several decades after the start of systematic measurements in the 1950s. The effect varies by location,
but worldwide it has been estimated to be of the order of a 4% reduction over the three decades from 1960–1990.
However, after discounting an anomaly caused by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, a very slight reversal in
the overall trend has been observed.[1]
It is thought to have been caused by an increase in particulates such as sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere due to
human action.
Global dimming has interfered with the hydrological cycle by reducing evaporation and may have reduced rainfall in
some areas. Global dimming also creates a cooling effect that may have partially masked the effect of greenhouse
gases on global warming.
Deliberate manipulation of this dimming effect is now being considered as a geoengineering technique to reduce the
impact of global warming.
Research
In the late-1960s, Mikhail Ivanovich Budyko worked with simple
two-dimensional energy-balance climate models to investigate the
reflectivity of ice.[5] He found that the ice-albedo feedback created a
positive feedback loop in the Earth's climate system. The more snow
and ice, the more solar radiation is reflected back into space and hence
the colder Earth grows and the more it snows. Other studies found that
pollution or a volcano eruption could provoke the onset of an ice
age.[6] [7]
Independent research in Israel and the Netherlands in the late 1980s showed an apparent reduction in the amount of
sunlight,[13] despite widespread evidence that the climate was actually becoming hotter. The rate of dimming varies
around the world but is on average estimated at around 2–3% per decade. The trend reversed in the early 1990s. [1] It
is difficult to make a precise measurement, due to the difficulty in accurately calibrating the instruments used, and
the problem of spatial coverage. Nonetheless, the effect is almost certainly present.
The effect (2–3%, as above) is due to changes within the Earth's atmosphere; the value of the solar radiation at the
top of the atmosphere has not changed by more than a fraction of this amount.[14]
The effect varies greatly over the planet, but
estimates of the terrestrial surface average
value are:
• 5.3% (9 W/m²); over 1958–85 (Stanhill
and Moreshet, 1992)[12]
• 2%/decade over 1964–93 (Gilgen et al., Smog at the Golden Gate Bridge. Smog is a likely contributor to global dimming.
1998)[15]
• 2.7%/decade (total 20 W/m²); up to 2000 (Stanhill and Cohen, 2001)[16]
• 4% over 1961–90 (Liepert 2002)[17]
Note that these numbers are for the terrestrial surface and not really a global average. Whether dimming (or
brightening) occurred over the ocean has been a bit of an unknown though a specific measurement (see below,
Causes) measured effects some 400 miles (643.7 km) from India over the Indian Ocean towards the Maldives
Islands. Regional effects probably dominate but are not strictly confined to the land area, and the effects will be
driven by regional air circulation. A 2009 review by Wild et al.[18] found that widespread variation in regional and
time effects. There was solar brightening beyond 2000 at numerous stations in Europe, the United States, and Korea.
The brightening seen at sites in Antarctica during the 1990s, influenced by recovering from the Mount Pinatubo
Global dimming 70
volcanic eruption in 1991, fades after 2000. The brightening tendency also seems to level off at sites in Japan. In
China there is some indication for a renewed dimming, after the stabilization in the 1990s. A continuation of the
long-lasting dimming is also noted at the sites in India. Overall, the available data suggest continuation of the
brightening beyond the year 2000 at numerous locations, yet less pronounced and coherent than during the 1990s,
with more regions with no clear changes or declines. Therefore, globally, greenhouse warming after 2000 may be
less modulated by surface solar variations than in prior decades. The largest reductions are found in the northern
hemisphere mid-latitudes.[19] Visible light and infrared radiation seem to be most affected rather than the ultraviolet
part of the spectrum.[20]
Probable causes
The incomplete combustion of fossil fuels (such as diesel) and wood
releases black carbon into the air. Though black carbon, most of which
is soot, is an extremely small component of air pollution at land surface
levels, the phenomenon has a significant heating effect on the
atmosphere at altitudes above two kilometers (6,562 ft). Also, it dims
the surface of the ocean by absorbing solar radiation.[27]
The phenomenon underlying global dimming may also have regional effects. While most of the earth has warmed,
the regions that are downwind from major sources of air pollution (specifically sulfur dioxide emissions) have
Global dimming 71
generally cooled. This may explain the cooling of the eastern United States relative to the warming western part.[29]
However some research shows that black carbon will actually increase global warming, being second only to CO2.
They believe that soot will absorb solar energy and transport it to other areas such as the Himalayas where glacial
melting occurs. It can also darken Arctic ice reducing reflectivity and increasing absorption of solar radiation.[30]
Some climate scientists have theorized that aircraft contrails (also called vapor trails) are implicated in global
dimming, but the constant flow of air traffic previously meant that this could not be tested. The near-total shutdown
of civil air traffic during the three days following the September 11, 2001 attacks afforded a unique opportunity in
which to observe the climate of the United States absent from the effect of contrails. During this period, an increase
in diurnal temperature variation of over 1 °C (1.8 °F) was observed in some parts of the U.S., i.e. aircraft contrails
may have been raising nighttime temperatures and/or lowering daytime temperatures by much more than previously
thought.[26]
Airborne volcanic ash can reflect the Sun's rays back into space and thereby contribute to cooling the planet. Dips in
earth temperatures have been observed after large volcano eruptions such as Mount Agung in Bali that erupted in
1963, El Chichon (Mexico) 1983, Ruiz (Colombia) 1985, and Pinatubo (Philippines) 1991. But even for major
eruptions, the ash clouds remain only for relatively short periods.[31]
It is likely that at least some of this change, particularly over Europe, is due to decreases in airborne pollution. Most
governments of developed nations have taken steps to reduce aerosols released into the atmosphere, which helps
reduce global dimming.
Sulfate aerosols have declined significantly since 1970 with the Clean Air Act in the United States and similar
policies in Europe. The Clean Air Act was strengthened in 1977 and 1990. According to the EPA, from 1970 to
2005, total emissions of the six principal air pollutants, including PM’s, dropped by 53% in the US. In 1975, the
masked effects of trapped greenhouse gases finally started to emerge and have dominated ever since.[37]
The Baseline Surface Radiation Network(BSRN) has been collecting surface measurements. BSRN was started in
the early 1990s and updated the archives in this time. Analysis of recent data reveals that the surface of the planet
has brightened by about 4% in the past decade. The brightening trend is corroborated by other data, including
satellite analyses.
Global dimming 72
The 2001 study by researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography concluded that the imbalance between
global dimming and global warming at the surface leads to weaker turbulent heat fluxes to the atmosphere. This
means globally reduced evaporation and hence precipitation occur in a dimmer and warmer world, which could
ultimately lead to a more humid atmosphere in which it rains less.[40]
A natural form of large scale environmental shading/dimming has been identified that affected the 2006 northern
hemisphere hurricane season. The NASA study found that several major dust storms in June and July in the Sahara
desert sent dust drifting over the Atlantic Ocean and through several effects caused cooling of the waters — and thus
dampening the development of hurricanes.[41] [42]
significant implications for future climate changes and policy responses to global warming.[43]
Interactions between the two theories for climate modification have also been studied, as global warming and global
dimming are neither mutually exclusive nor contradictory. In a paper published on March 8, 2005 in the American
Geophysical Union's Geophysical Research Letters, a research team led by Anastasia Romanou of Columbia
University's Department of Applied Physics and Mathematics, New York, also showed that the apparently opposing
forces of global warming and global dimming can occur at the same time.[45] Global dimming interacts with global
warming by blocking sunlight that would otherwise cause evaporation and the particulates bind to water droplets.
Water vapor is the major greenhouse gas. On the other hand, global dimming is affected by evaporation and rain.
Rain has the effect of clearing out polluted skies.
Brown clouds have been found to amplify global warming according to Veerabhadran Ramanathan, an atmospheric
chemist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, CA. "The conventional thinking is that brown clouds
have masked as much as 50 percent of global warming by greenhouse gases through so-called global dimming...
While this is true globally, this study reveals that over southern and eastern Asia, the soot particles in the brown
clouds are in fact amplifying the atmospheric warming trend caused by greenhouse gases by as much as 50
percent."[46]
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External links
Bibliographies
• Roderick, Michael. "Global Dimming Bibliography" (http://www.greenhouse.crc.org.au/research/c2_bibliog.
cfm).
• Saunders, Alison. "Global Dimming Bibliography" (http://www.greenhouse.crc.org.au/crc/research/
c2_bibliog.htm).
Notable web pages
• Shah, Anup. "Global Dimming" (http://www.globalissues.org/EnvIssues/GlobalWarming/globaldimming.
asp). Global Issues.
• Liepert, Beate. "Global Dimming (requires flash)" (http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~liepert/media/flash/
globalDimming.swf). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University.
• Schmidt, Gavin. "Global Dimming - part 1" (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=105). RealClimate.
• Liepert, Beate. "Global Dimming - part 2" (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=110). RealClimate.
• Connolley, William. "Global Dimming may have a brighter future" (http://www.realclimate.org/index.
php?p=154). RealClimate.
• Haywood, Jim. "Met Office: Global dimming" (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/
explained/explained3.html). The Met Office.
Podcasts
• "Brown Cloud" (http://www.ecoshock.org/downloads/ecoshock/Ecoshock_BrownCloud.mp3) (mp3).
Ecoshock.
Q&A
• "BBC Global Dimming Q&A" (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_qa.shtml).
News articles
• Adam, David (2003-12-18). "Goodbye Sunshine" (http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/feature/story/
0,13026,1108853,00.html). The Guardian.
• Chang, Kenneth (2004-05-13). "Globe Grows Darker as Sunshine Diminishes 10% to 37%" (http://www.
commondreams.org/headlines04/0513-01.htm). The New York Times.
• Appell, David (2004-08-02). "The Darkening Earth Less sun at the Earth's surface complicates climate models"
(http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=000C3AAE-D82A-10F9-975883414B7F0000). Scientific
American.
• Keen, Kip (2004-09-22). "Dim Sun Global dimming? Global warming? What's with the globe, anyway?" (http://
www.grist.org/news/maindish/2004/09/22/keen-dimming). Grist Magazine.
• Sington, David (2005-01-13). "Why the Sun seems to be 'dimming'" (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/
4171591.stm). BBC News.
• Onion, Amanda (2006-02-09). "Are Skies Dimming Over Earth? Data Suggest Human Pollution Can Lead to
Darker Days" (http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/GlobalWarming/story?id=1566139). ABC News.
• "Transported Black Carbon A Significant Player In Pacific Ocean Climate" (http://www.sciencedaily.com/
releases/2007/03/070314134655.htm). Science Daily. 2007-03-15.
Global dimming 77
where the subscript i represents an interval of 10 inverse centimeters. Absi represents the integrated infrared
absorbance of the sample in that interval, and Fi represents the RF for that interval.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the generally accepted values for GWP, which
changed slightly between 1996 and 2001. An exact definition of how GWP is calculated is to be found in the IPCC's
2001 Third Assessment Report [4]. The GWP is defined as the ratio of the time-integrated radiative forcing from the
instantaneous release of 1 kg of a trace substance relative to that of 1 kg of a reference gas:
where TH is the time horizon over which the calculation is considered; ax is the radiative efficiency due to a unit
increase in atmospheric abundance of the substance (i.e., Wm−2 kg−1) and [x(t)] is the time-dependent decay in
abundance of the substance following an instantaneous release of it at time t=0. The denominator contains the
corresponding quantities for the reference gas (i.e. CO2). The radiative efficiencies ax and ar are not necessarily
constant over time. While the absorption of infrared radiation by many greenhouse gases varies linearly with their
abundance, a few important ones display non-linear behaviour for current and likely future abundances (e.g., CO2,
CH4, and N2O). For those gases, the relative radiative forcing will depend upon abundance and hence upon the
future scenario adopted.
Since all GWP calculations are a comparison to CO2 which is non-linear, all GWP values are affected. Assuming
otherwise as is done above will lead to lower GWPs for other gases than a more detailed approach would.
The GWP for a mixture of gases can not be determined from the GWP of the constituent gases by any form of
simple linear addition.
Commonly, a time horizon of 100 years is used by regulators (e.g., the California Air Resources Board).
Values
Carbon dioxide has a GWP of exactly 1 (since it is the baseline unit to which all other greenhouse gases are
compared).
Nitrous oxide 114 (114) 289 (275) 298 (296) 153 (156)
HFC-23 (hydrofluorocarbon) 270 (260) 12,000 (9400) 14,800 (12,000) 12,200 (10,000)
sulfur hexafluoride 3200 (3,200) 16,300 (15,100) 22,800 (22,200) 32,600 (32,400)
Although water vapour has a significant influence with regard to absorbing infrared radiation (which is the green
house effect; see greenhouse gas), its GWP is not calculated. Its concentration in the atmosphere mainly depends on
air temperature. There is no possibility to directly influence atmospheric water vapour concentration.
References
[1] "Global Warming Potentials" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ ghg_data/ items/ 3825. php). Climate Change 1995, The Science of Climate Change:
Summary for Policymakers. Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report, page 22.. 1995. . Retrieved 2011-04-26.
[2] Matthew Elrod, "Greenhouse Warming Potential Model." (http:/ / www. chem. tamu. edu/ rgroup/ north/ ITS GWP Data. xls) Based on
Journal of Chemical Education, Vol 76, pp. 1702-1705, December 1999
[3] "Glossary: Global warming potential (GWP)" (http:/ / www. eia. gov/ tools/ glossary/ index. cfm?id=G). U.S. Energy Information
Administration. . Retrieved 2011-04-26. "An index used to compare the relative radiative forcing of different gases without directly
calculating the changes in atmospheric concentrations. GWPs are calculated as the ratio of the radiative forcing that would result from the
emission of one kilogram of a greenhouse gas to that from the emission of one kilogram of carbon dioxide over a fixed period of time, such as
100 years."
[4] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 247. htm
[5] Conference of the Parties (25 March 1998). "Methodological issues related to the Kyoto Protocol" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ resource/ docs/ cop3/
07a01. pdf). Report of the Conference of the Parties on its third session, held at Kyoto from 1 to 11 December 1997 Addendum Part Two:
Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its third session. UNFCCC. . Retrieved 17 January 2011.
[6] http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter2. pdf
[7] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 248. htm
External links
• 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by Working Group 1 (http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.
html) (WG1) and Chapter 2 of that report ( Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing (http:/
/www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf)) which contains GWP information.
• 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) page on Global Warming Potentials (http://www.grida.no/
climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/247.htm) and Direct GWP (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/248.htm).
• List of Global Warming Potentials and Atmospheric Lifetimes (http://www.epa.gov/nonco2/econ-inv/table.
html) from the U.S. EPA
• Greenhouse Gases and Global Warming Potential Values, Excerpt from the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas
Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2000 (http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/UniqueKeyLookup/
Global warming potential 80
Greenhouse effect
The greenhouse effect is a process by which thermal radiation from a
planetary surface is absorbed by atmospheric greenhouse gases, and is
re-radiated in all directions. Since part of this re-radiation is back
towards the surface, energy is transferred to the surface and the lower
atmosphere. As a result, the temperature there is higher than it would
be if direct heating by solar radiation were the only warming
mechanism.[1] [2]
Global warming, a recent warming of the Earth's surface and lower atmosphere,[9] is believed to be the result of a
strengthening of the greenhouse effect mostly due to human-produced increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases.[10]
Basic mechanism
The Earth receives energy from the Sun in the form UV, visible, and near IR radiation, most of which passes through
the atmosphere without being absorbed. Of the total amount of energy available at the top of the atmosphere (TOA),
about 50% is absorbed at the Earth's surface. Because it is warm, the surface radiates far IR thermal radiation that
consists of wavelengths that are predominantly much longer than the wavelengths that were absorbed. Most of this
thermal radiation is absorbed by the atmosphere and re-radiated both upwards and downwards; that radiated
downwards is absorbed by the Earth's surface. This trapping of long-wavelength thermal radiation leads to a higher
equilibrium temperature than if the atmosphere were absent.
This highly simplified picture of the basic mechanism needs to be qualified in a number of ways, none of which
affect the fundamental process.
Greenhouse effect 81
• The incoming radiation from the Sun is mostly in the form of visible
light and nearby wavelengths, largely in the range 0.2–4 μm,
corresponding to the Sun's radiative temperature of 6,000 K.[11]
Almost half the radiation is in the form of "visible" light, which our
eyes are adapted to use.[12]
• About 50% of the Sun's energy is absorbed at the Earth's surface
and the rest is reflected or absorbed by the atmosphere. The
reflection of light back into space—largely by clouds—does not
much affect the basic mechanism; this light, effectively, is lost to
The solar radiation spectrum for direct light at
the system. both the top of the Earth's atmosphere and at sea
• The absorbed energy warms the surface. Simple presentations of the level
Greenhouse gases
By their percentage contribution to the greenhouse effect on Earth the four major gases are:[13] [14]
• water vapor, 36–70%
• carbon dioxide, 9–26%
• methane, 4–9%
• ozone, 3–7%
The major non-gas contributor to the Earth's greenhouse effect, clouds, also absorb and emit infrared radiation and
thus have an effect on radiative properties of the atmosphere.[14]
Because it is a greenhouse gas, elevated CO2 levels contribute to additional absorption and emission of thermal
infrared in the atmosphere, which produce net warming. According to the latest Assessment Report from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since
the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations".[20]
Over the past 800,000 years,[21] ice core data shows unambiguously that carbon dioxide has varied from values as
low as 180 parts per million (ppm) to the pre-industrial level of 270ppm.[22] Paleoclimatologists consider variations
in carbon dioxide to be a fundamental factor in controlling climate variations over this time scale.[23] [24]
Real greenhouses
The "greenhouse effect" is named by analogy to greenhouses. The
greenhouse effect and a real greenhouse are similar in that they both
limit the rate of thermal energy flowing out of the system, but the
mechanisms by which heat is retained are different.[25] A greenhouse
works primarily by preventing absorbed heat from leaving the structure
through convection, i.e. sensible heat transport. The greenhouse effect
heats the earth because greenhouse gases absorb outgoing radiative
energy and re-emit some of it back towards earth.
A greenhouse is built of any material that passes sunlight, usually A modern Greenhouse in RHS Wisley
glass, or plastic. It mainly heats up because the Sun warms the ground
Greenhouse effect 83
inside, which then warms the air in the greenhouse. The air continues to heat because it is confined within the
greenhouse, unlike the environment outside the greenhouse where warm air near the surface rises and mixes with
cooler air aloft. This can be demonstrated by opening a small window near the roof of a greenhouse: the temperature
will drop considerably. It has also been demonstrated experimentally (R. W. Wood, 1909) that a "greenhouse" with a
cover of rock salt (which is transparent to infra red) heats up an enclosure similarly to one with a glass cover.[26]
Thus greenhouses work primarily by preventing convective cooling.[27] [28]
In the greenhouse effect, rather than retaining (sensible) heat by physically preventing movement of the air,
greenhouse gases act to warm the Earth by re-radiating some of the energy back towards the surface. This process
may exist in real greenhouses, but is comparatively unimportant there.
Literature
• Earth Radiation Budget, http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/education/class/yuri/erb.html
• Businger, Joost Alois; Fleagle, Robert Guthrie (1980). An introduction to atmospheric physics. International
geophysics series (2nd ed.). San Diego: Academic. ISBN 0-12-260355-9.
• IPCC assessment reports, see http://www.ipcc.ch/
• Henderson-Sellers, Ann; McGuffie, Kendal (2005). A climate modelling primer (3rd ed.). New York: Wiley.
ISBN 0-470-85750-1. "Greenhouse effect: the effect of the atmosphere in re-reradiating longwave radiation back
to the surface of the Earth. It has nothing to do with glasshouses, which trap warm air at the surface."
• Idso, S.B. (1982). Carbon dioxide : friend or foe? : an inquiry into the climatic and agricultural consequences of
the rapidly rising CO2 content of Earth's atmosphere. Tempe, AZ: IBR Press. OCLC 63236418. "...the
phraseology is somewhat in appropriate, since CO2 does not warm the planet in a manner analogous to the way in
which a greenhouse keeps its interior warm"
• Kiehl, J.T., Trenberth, K. (1997). "Earth's annual mean global energy budget". Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society 78 (2): 197–208. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0197:EAGMEB>2.0.CO;2.
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[1] "Annex II Glossary" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ syr/ en/ annexessglossary-e-i. html). Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. . Retrieved 15 October 2010.
[2] A concise description of the greenhouse effect is given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, "What
is the Greenhouse Effect?" IIPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 1 (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/
ar4-wg1-chapter1. pdf), page 115: "To balance the absorbed incoming [solar] energy, the Earth must, on average, radiate the same amount of
energy back to space. Because the Earth is much colder than the Sun, it radiates at much longer wavelengths, primarily in the infrared part of
the spectrum (see Figure 1). Much of this thermal radiation emitted by the land and ocean is absorbed by the atmosphere, including clouds,
and reradiated back to Earth. This is called the greenhouse effect."
Stephen H. Schneider, in Geosphere-biosphere Interactions and Climate, Lennart O. Bengtsson and Claus U. Hammer, eds., Cambridge
University Press, 2001, ISBN 0521782384, pp. 90-91.
E. Claussen, V. A. Cochran, and D. P. Davis, Climate Change: Science, Strategies, & Solutions, University of Michigan, 2001. p. 373.
A. Allaby and M. Allaby, A Dictionary of Earth Sciences, Oxford University Press, 1999, ISBN 0192800795, p. 244.
[3] Annual Reviews (requires registration) (http:/ / arjournals. annualreviews. org/ doi/ full/ 10. 1146/ annurev. energy. 25. 1. 441)
[4] "NASA Earth Fact Sheet" (http:/ / nssdc. gsfc. nasa. gov/ planetary/ factsheet/ earthfact. html). Nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov. . Retrieved 2010-10-15.
Greenhouse effect 84
[5] "Introduction to Atmospheric Chemistry, by Daniel J. Jacob, Princeton University Press, 1999. Chapter 7, "The Greenhouse Effect"" (http:/ /
acmg. seas. harvard. edu/ people/ faculty/ djj/ book/ bookchap7. html). Acmg.seas.harvard.edu. . Retrieved 2010-10-15.
[6] "Solar Radiation and the Earth's Energy Balance" (http:/ / eesc. columbia. edu/ courses/ ees/ climate/ lectures/ radiation/ ). Eesc.columbia.edu.
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[7] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Chapter 1: Historical overview of climate change science (http:/ /
www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter1. pdf) page 97
[8] The elusive "absolute surface air temperature," see GISS discussion (http:/ / data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp/ abs_temp. html)
[9] Merged land air and sea surface temperature data set (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ gcag/ gcagmerged. jsp)
[10] "Enhanced greenhouse effect – a hot international topic" (http:/ / www. science. org. au/ nova/ 016/ 016key. htm). Nova. Australian
Academy of Science. 2008. . The enhanced greenhouse effect]
[11] Mitchell, John F. B. (1989). "THE "GREENHOUSE" EFFECT AND CLIMATE CHANGE" (http:/ / astrosun2. astro. cornell. edu/
academics/ courses/ astro202/ Mitchell_GRL89. pdf). Reviews of Geophysics (American Geophysical Union) 27 (1): 115–139.
doi:10.1029/RG027i001p00115. . Retrieved 2008-03-23.
[12] "Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SOURCE)" (http:/ / earthobservatory. nasa. gov/ Features/ SORCE/ sorce_02. php). NASA.Gov.
. Retrieved 15 October 2010.
[13] "Water vapour: feedback or forcing?" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php?p=142). RealClimate. 6 April 2005. . Retrieved
2006-05-01.
[14] Kiehl, J. T.; Kevin E. Trenberth (February 1997). "Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget" (http:/ / www. atmo. arizona. edu/ students/
courselinks/ spring04/ atmo451b/ pdf/ RadiationBudget. pdf) (PDF). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78 (2): 197–208.
doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0197:EAGMEB>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2009-12-23.
[15] "Enhanced greenhouse effect — Glossary" (http:/ / www. science. org. au/ nova/ 016/ 016glo. htm). Nova. Australian Academy of Science.
2006. .
[16] "Enhanced Greenhouse Effect" (http:/ / www. ace. mmu. ac. uk/ eae/ Global_Warming/ Older/ Enhanced_Greenhouse_Effect. html).
Ace.mmu.ac.uk. . Retrieved 2010-10-15.
[17] IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group I Report "The Physical Science Basis" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/
wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter7. pdf) Chapter 7
[18] "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide – Mauna Loa" (http:/ / www. esrl. noaa. gov/ gmd/ ccgg/ trends/ co2_data_mlo. html). NOAA. .
[19] Hansen J. (February 2005). "A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference”?" (http:/ /
www. springerlink. com/ content/ x283l27781675v51/ ?p=799ebc88193f4ecfa8ca76f6e28f45d7). Climatic Change 68 (333): 269–279.
doi:10.1007/s10584-005-4135-0. .
[20] IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Synthesis Report: Summary for Policymakers (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ syr/
ar4_syr_spm. pdf) (p. 5)
[21] "Deep ice tells long climate story" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 5314592. stm). BBC News. 2006-09-04. . Retrieved
2010-05-04.
[22] Hileman B (2005-11-28). "Ice Core Record Extended" (http:/ / pubs. acs. org/ cen/ news/ 83/ i48/ 8348notw1. html). Chemical &
Engineering News 83 (48): 7. .
[23] Bowen, Mark; Thin Ice: Unlocking the Secrets of Climate in the World's Highest Mountains; Owl Books, 2005.
[24] Temperature change and carbon dioxide change (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ paleo/ globalwarming/ temperature-change. html), U.S.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
[25] Brian Shmaefsky (2004). Favorite demonstrations for college science: an NSTA Press journals collection (http:/ / books. google. com/
books?id=L4jtv2mX0iQC& pg=PA57). NSTA Press. p. 57. ISBN 9780873552424. .
[26] Wood, R.W. (1909). "Note on the Theory of the Greenhouse" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ wood_rw. 1909. html).
Philosophical Magazine 17: 319–320. . "When exposed to sunlight the temperature rose gradually to 65 °C., the enclosure covered with the
salt plate keeping a little ahead of the other because it transmitted the longer waves from the Sun, which were stopped by the glass. In order to
eliminate this action the sunlight was first passed through a glass plate." "it is clear that the rock-salt plate is capable of transmitting practically
all of it, while the glass plate stops it entirely. This shows us that the loss of temperature of the ground by radiation is very small in
comparison to the loss by convection, in other words that we gain very little from the circumstance that the radiation is trapped.".
[27] Oort, Abraham H.; Peixoto, José Pinto (1992). Physics of climate. New York: American Institute of Physics. ISBN 0-88318-711-6. "...the
name water vapor-greenhouse effect is actually a misnomer since heating in the usual greenhouse is due to the reduction of convection"
[28] Schroeder, Daniel V. (2000). An introduction to thermal physics. San Francisco, California: Addison-Wesley. pp. 305–7.
ISBN 0-321-27779-1. "... this mechanism is called the greenhouse effect, even though most greenhouses depend primarily on a different
mechanism (namely, limiting convective cooling)."
[29] McKay, C.; Pollack, J.; Courtin, R. (1991). "The greenhouse and antigreenhouse effects on Titan". Science 253: 1118–21.
doi:10.1126/science.11538492. PMID 11538492.
[30] "Titan: Greenhouse and Anti-greenhouse :: Astrobiology Magazine - earth science - evolution distribution Origin of life universe - life
beyond :: Astrobiology is study of earth" (http:/ / www. astrobio. net/ news/ modules. php?op=modload& name=News& file=article&
sid=1762& mode=thread& order=0& thold=0). Astrobio.net. . Retrieved 2010-10-15.
[31] "Pluto Colder Than Expected" (http:/ / www. space. com/ scienceastronomy/ 060103_pluto_cold. html). SPACE.com. 2006-01-03. .
Retrieved 2010-10-15.
Greenhouse effect 85
[32] Kasting, James F. (1991). "Runaway and moist greenhouse atmospheres and the evolution of Earth and Venus." (http:/ / books. nap. edu/
openbook. php?record_id=1790& page=234). Planetary Sciences: American and Soviet Research/Proceedings from the U.S.-U.S.S.R.
Workshop on Planetary Sciences. Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems (CETS). pp. 234–245. . Retrieved 2009.
[33] Rasool, I.; De Bergh, C.; De Bergh, C. (Jun 1970). "The Runaway Greenhouse and the Accumulation of CO2 in the Venus Atmosphere"
(http:/ / pubs. giss. nasa. gov/ docs/ 1970/ 1970_Rasool_DeBergh. pdf). Nature 226 (5250): 1037. doi:10.1038/2261037a0. ISSN 0028-0836.
PMID 16057644. . Retrieved 02/25/2009.
Greenhouse gas
A greenhouse gas (sometimes
abbreviated GHG) is a gas in an
atmosphere that absorbs and emits
radiation within the thermal infrared
range. This process is the fundamental
cause of the greenhouse effect.[1] The
primary greenhouse gases in the
Earth's atmosphere are water vapor,
carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous
oxide, and ozone. In the Solar System,
the atmospheres of Venus, Mars, and
Titan also contain gases that cause
greenhouse effects. Greenhouse gases
greatly affect the temperature of the
Earth; without them, Earth's surface Simple diagram of greenhouse effect.
would be on average about 33 °C
(59 °F)[2] colder than at present.[3] [4] [5]
Since the beginning of the Industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has contributed to the increase in carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere from 280ppm to 390ppm.[6] [7] Unlike other pollutants, carbon dioxide emissions do not
result from inefficient combustion: CO2 is a product of ideal, stoichiometric combustion of carbon.[8] The emissions
of carbon are directly proportional to energy consumption.
basis methane is about eighty times stronger greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide,[9] but it is present in much smaller
concentrations so that its total contribution is smaller. When these gases are ranked by their contribution to the
greenhouse effect, the most important are:[10]
Ozone O3 3–7%
It is not possible to state that a certain gas causes an exact percentage of the greenhouse effect. This is because some
of the gases absorb and emit radiation at the same frequencies as others, so that the total greenhouse effect is not
simply the sum of the influence of each gas. The higher ends of the ranges quoted are for each gas alone; the lower
ends account for overlaps with the other gases.[10] [11] The major non-gas contributor to the Earth's greenhouse
effect, clouds, also absorb and emit infrared radiation and thus have an effect on radiative properties of the
greenhouse gases.[10] [11]
In addition to the main greenhouse gases listed above, other greenhouse gases include sulfur hexafluoride,
hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons (see IPCC list of greenhouse gases). Some greenhouse gases are not often
listed. For example, nitrogen trifluoride has a high global warming potential (GWP) but is only present in very small
quantities.[12]
Although contributing to many other physical and chemical reactions,
the major atmospheric constituents, nitrogen (N2), oxygen (O2), and
argon (Ar), are not greenhouse gases. This is because molecules
containing two atoms of the same element such as N2 and O2 and
monatomic molecules such as Ar have no net change in their dipole
moment when they vibrate and hence are almost totally unaffected by
infrared light. Although molecules containing two atoms of different
elements such as carbon monoxide (CO) or hydrogen chloride (HCl)
absorb IR, these molecules are short-lived in the atmosphere owing to
their reactivity and solubility. As a consequence they do not contribute
significantly to the greenhouse effect and are not often included when
discussing greenhouse gases.
Atmospheric absorption and scattering at
different electromagnetic wavelengths. The
Late 19th century scientists experimentally discovered that N2 and O2
largest absorption band of carbon dioxide is in the
do not absorb infrared radiation (called, at that time, "dark radiation") infrared.
while, at the contrary, water, as true vapour or condensed in the form
of microscopic droplets suspended in clouds, CO2 and other poly-atomic gaseous molecules do absorb infrared
radiation. It was recognized in the early 20th century that the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused the Earth's
overall temperature to be higher than it would be without them. During the late 20th century, a scientific consensus
has evolved that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are causing a substantial rise in
global temperatures and changes to other parts of the climate system, with consequences for the environment and
human health.[13]
Greenhouse gas 87
Gas Preindustrial level Current level Increase since 1750 Radiative forcing (W/m2)
Ice cores provide evidence for variation in greenhouse gas concentrations over the past 800,000 years. Both CO2 and
CH4 vary between glacial and interglacial phases, and concentrations of these gases correlate strongly with
temperature. Direct data does not exist for periods earlier than those represented in the ice core record, a record
which indicates CO2 mole fractions staying within a range of between 180ppm and 280ppm throughout the last
800,000 years, until the increase of the last 250 years. However, various proxies and modeling suggests larger
variations in past epochs; 500 million years ago CO2 levels were likely 10 times higher than now.[17] Indeed higher
CO2 concentrations are thought to have prevailed throughout most of the Phanerozoic eon, with concentrations four
Greenhouse gas 88
to six times current concentrations during the Mesozoic era, and ten to fifteen times current concentrations during the
early Palaeozoic era until the middle of the Devonian period, about 400 Ma.[18] [19] [20] The spread of land plants is
thought to have reduced CO2 concentrations during the late Devonian, and plant activities as both sources and sinks
of CO2 have since been important in providing stabilising feedbacks.[21] Earlier still, a 200-million year period of
intermittent, widespread glaciation extending close to the equator (Snowball Earth) appears to have been ended
suddenly, about 550 Ma, by a colossal volcanic outgassing which raised the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere
abruptly to 12%, about 350 times modern levels, causing extreme greenhouse conditions and carbonate deposition as
limestone at the rate of about 1 mm per day.[22] This episode marked the close of the Precambrian eon, and was
succeeded by the generally warmer conditions of the Phanerozoic, during which multicellular animal and plant life
evolved. No volcanic carbon dioxide emission of comparable scale has occurred since. In the modern era, emissions
to the atmosphere from volcanoes are only about 1% of emissions from human sources.[22] [23]
It is likely that anthropogenic warming, such as that due to elevated greenhouse gas levels, has had a discernible
influence on many physical and biological systems. Warming is projected to affect various issues such as freshwater
resources, industry, food and health.[27]
The main sources of greenhouse gases due to human activity are:
Greenhouse gas 89
Cement production 3%
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ranks the major greenhouse gas contributing end-user sectors in
the following order: industrial, transportation, residential, commercial and agricultural.[30] Major sources of an
individual's greenhouse gas include home heating and cooling, electricity consumption, and transportation.
Corresponding conservation measures are improving home building insulation, installing geothermal heat pumps and
compact fluorescent lamps, and choosing energy-efficient vehicles.
Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and three groups of fluorinated gases (sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCs)
are the major greenhouse gases and the subject of the Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in 2005.[31]
Although CFCs are greenhouse gases, they are regulated by the Montreal Protocol, which was motivated by CFCs'
contribution to ozone depletion rather than by their contribution to global warming. Note that ozone depletion has
only a minor role in greenhouse warming though the two processes often are confused in the media.
On December 7, 2009, the US Environmental Protection Agency released its final findings on greenhouse gases,
declaring that "greenhouse gases (GHGs) threaten the public health and welfare of the American people". The
finding applied to the same "six key well-mixed greenhouse gases" named in the Kyoto Protocol: carbon dioxide,
methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride.[32] [33]
Greenhouse gas 90
The average residence time of a water molecule in the atmosphere is only about nine days, compared to years or
centuries for other greenhouse gases such as CH4 and CO2. Thus, water vapor responds to and amplifies effects of
the other greenhouse gases. The Clausius-Clapeyron relation establishes that air can hold more water vapor per unit
volume when it warms. This and other basic principles indicate that warming associated with increased
concentrations of the other greenhouse gases also will increase the concentration of water vapor. Because water
vapor is a greenhouse gas this results in further warming, a "positive feedback" that amplifies the original warming.
This positive feedback does not result in runaway global warming because it is offset by other processes which
stabilize average global temperatures.[35]
others have argued that these findings more likely reflect calibration or
contamination problems rather than actual CO2 variability.[38] [39] Because of the way air is trapped in ice (pores in
the ice close off slowly to form bubbles deep within the firn) and the time period represented in each ice sample
analyzed, these figures represent averages of atmospheric concentrations of up to a few centuries rather than annual
or decadal levels.
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the concentrations of most of the greenhouse gases have increased.
For example, the mole fraction of carbon dioxide has increased by about 36% to 380 ppm, or 100 ppm over modern
pre-industrial levels. The first 50 ppm increase took place in about 200 years, from the start of the Industrial
Greenhouse gas 91
Revolution to around 1973; however the next 50 ppm increase took place in about 33 years, from 1973 to 2006.[40]
Recent data also shows that the concentration is increasing at a higher rate. In the 1960s, the average annual increase
was only 37% of what it was in 2000 through 2007.[41]
The other greenhouse gases produced from human activity show similar increases in both amount and rate of
increase. Many observations are available online in a variety of Atmospheric Chemistry Observational Databases.
Relevant to both radiative forcing and ozone depletion; all of the following have no natural
sources and hence zero amounts pre-industrial
Gas Current (1998) Radiative
Amount by volume forcing
(W/m2)
(Source: IPCC radiative forcing report 1994 updated (to 1998) by IPCC TAR table 6.1[42] [43] ).
Greenhouse gas 92
Land-use change, e.g., the clearing of forests for agricultural use, can affect the concentration of GHGs in the
atmosphere by altering how much carbon flows out of the atmosphere into carbon sinks.[50] Accounting for land-use
change can be understood as an attempt to measure “net” emissions, i.e., gross emissions from all GHG sources
minus the removal of emissions from the atmosphere by carbon sinks (Banuri et al., 1996, pp. 92–93).
There are substantial uncertainties in the measurement of net carbon emissions.[51] Additionally, there is controversy
over how carbon sinks should be allocated between different regions and over time (Banuri et al., 1996, p. 93). For
instance, concentrating on more recent changes in carbon sinks is likely to favour those regions that have deforested
earlier, e.g., Europe.
Top-5 historic CO2 contributors by region over the years 1800 to 1988 (in %)
Region Industrial Total
CO2 CO2
The table above is based on Banuri et al. (1996, p. 94).[46] Overall, developed countries accounted for 83.8% of
industrial CO2 emissions over this time period, and 67.8% of total CO2 emissions. Developing countries accounted
for industrial CO2 emissions of 16.2% over this time period, and 32.2% of total CO2 emissions. The estimate of total
CO2 emissions includes biotic carbon emissions, mainly from deforestation. Banuri et al. (1996, p. 94) calculated per
capita cumulative emissions based on then-current population. The ratio in per capita emissions between
industrialized countires and developing countries was estimated to be more than 10 to 1.
Including biotic emissions brings about the same controversy mentioned earlier regarding carbon sinks and land-use
change (Banuri et al., 1996, pp. 93–94). The actual calculation of net emissions is very complex, and is affected by
how carbon sinks are allocated between regions (an equity consideration), and the dynamics of the climate system.
Greenhouse gas 94
The International Energy Agency (IEA, 2007, p. 201) compared cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions for
several countries and regions.[47] Over the time period 1900-2005, the US accounted for 30% of total cumulative
emissions; the EU, 23%; China, 8%; Japan, 4%; and India, 2%. The rest of the world accounted for 33% of global,
cumulative, energy-related CO2 emissions.
Per capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in developing
countries (Grubb, 2003, p. 144).[48] Due to China's fast economic development, its per capita emissions are quickly
approaching the levels of those in the Annex I group of the Kyoto Protocol (PBL, 2009).[56] Other countries with fast
growing emissions are South Korea, Iran, and Australia. On the other hand, per capita emissions of the EU-15 and
the USA are gradually decreasing over time. Emissions in Russia and the Ukraine have decreased fastest since 1990
due to economic restructuring in these countries (Carbon Trust, 2009, p. 24).[57]
Energy statistics for fast growing economies are less accurate than those for the industrialized countries. For China's
annual emissions in 2008, PBL (2008) estimated an uncertainty range of about 10%.
Greenhouse gas 95
Top emitters
In 2005, the world's top-20 emitters comprised 80% of total GHG emissions (PBL, 2010. See notes for the following
table).[58] Tabulated below are the top-5 emitters for the year 2005 (MNP, 2007).[59] The second column is the
country's or region's share of the global total of annual emissions. The third column is the country's or region's
average annual per capita emissions, in tonnes of GHG per head of population:
16 % 24.1
United Statesa
6% 12.9
Indonesiac
11 % 10.6
European Union-27a
17 % 5.8
Chinab
India 5% 2.1
Table footnotes:
• These values are for the GHG emissions from fossil fuel use and cement production. Calculations are for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane
(CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and gases containing fluorine (the F-gases HFCs, PFCs and SF6).
• These estimates are subject to large uncertainties regarding CO2 emissions from deforestation; and the per country emissions of other GHGs
(e.g., methane). There are also other large uncertainties which mean that small differences between countries are not significant. CO2
emissions from the decay of remaining biomass after biomass burning/deforestation are not included.
a
• Industrialised countries: official country data reported to UNFCCC.
b
• Excluding underground fires.
c
• Including an estimate of 2000 million tonnes CO2 from peat fires and decomposition of peat soils after draining. However, the uncertainty
range is very large.
Embedded emissions
One way of attributing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is to measure the embedded emissions (also referred to as
"embodied emissions") of goods that are being consumed. Emissions are usually measured according to production,
rather than consumption (Helm et al., 2007, p. 3).[60] Under a production-based accounting of emissions, embedded
emissions on imported goods are attributed to the exporting, rather than the importing, country. Under a
consumption-based accounting of emissions, embedded emissions on imported goods are attributed to the importing
country, rather than the exporting, country.
Davis and Caldeira (2010, p. 4) found that a substantial proportion of CO2 emissions are traded internationally.[61]
The net effect of trade was to export emissions from China and other emerging markets to consumers in the US,
Japan, and Western Europe. Based on annual emissions data from the year 2004, and on a per-capita consumption
basis, the top-5 emitting countries were found to be (in tCO2 per person, per year): Luxembourg (34.7), the US
(22.0), Singapore (20.2), Australia (16.7), and Canada (16.6) (Davis and Caldeira, 2010, p. 5).
Greenhouse gas 96
Effect of policy
Rogner et al. (2007) assessed the effectiveness of policies to reduce emissions (mitigation of climate change).[54]
They concluded that mitigation policies undertaken by UNFCCC Parties were inadequate to reverse the trend of
increasing GHG emissions. The impacts of population growth, economic development, technological investment,
and consumption had overwhelmed improvements in energy intensities and efforts to decarbonize (energy intensity
is a country's total primary energy supply (TPES) per unit of GDP (Rogner et al., 2007).[62] TPES is a measure of
commercial energy consumption (World Bank, 2010, p. 371)).[44]
Projections
Based on then-current energy policies, Rogner et al. (2007) projected that energy-related CO2 emissions in 2030
would be 40-110% higher than in 2000.[54] Two-thirds of this increase was projected to come from non-Annex I
countries. Per capita emissions in Annex I countries were still projected to remain substantially higher than per
capita emissions in non-Annex I countries. Projections consistently showed a 25-90% increase in the Kyoto gases
(carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride) compared to 2000.
IEA (2007, p. 199) estimated future cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions for several countries.[47] Their
reference scenario projected cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions between the years 1900 and 2030. In this
scenario, China’s share of cumulative emissions rises to 16%, approaching that of the United States (25%) and the
European Union (18%). India’s cumulative emissions (4%) approach those of Japan (4%).
Mass of carbon dioxide emitted per quantity of energy for various fuels[65]
Fuel name CO2 CO2
emitted emitted
(lbs/106 Btu) (g/106 J)
Natural processes
Greenhouse gases can be removed from the atmosphere by various processes, as a consequence of:
• a physical change (condensation and precipitation remove water vapor from the atmosphere).
• a chemical reactions within the atmosphere. For example, methane is oxidized by reaction with naturally
occurring hydroxyl radical, OH· and degraded to CO2 and water vapor (CO2 from the oxidation of methane is not
included in the methane Global warming potential). Other chemical reactions include solution and solid phase
chemistry occurring in atmospheric aerosols.
• a physical exchange between the atmosphere and the other compartments of the planet. An example is the mixing
of atmospheric gases into the oceans.
• a chemical change at the interface between the atmosphere and the other compartments of the planet. This is the
case for CO2, which is reduced by photosynthesis of plants, and which, after dissolving in the oceans, reacts to
form carbonic acid and bicarbonate and carbonate ions (see ocean acidification).
• a photochemical change. Halocarbons are dissociated by UV light releasing Cl· and F· as free radicals in the
stratosphere with harmful effects on ozone (halocarbons are generally too stable to disappear by chemical reaction
in the atmosphere).
Atmospheric lifetime
Aside from water vapor, which has a residence time of about nine days,[66] major greenhouse gases are well-mixed,
and take many years to leave the atmosphere.[67] Although it is not easy to know with precision how long it takes
greenhouse gases to leave the atmosphere, there are estimates for the principal greenhouse gases. Jacob (1999)[68]
defines the lifetime of an atmospheric species X in a one-box model as the average time that a molecule of X
remains in the box. Mathematically can be defined as the ratio of the mass (in kg) of X in the box to its
removal rate, which is the sum of the flow of X out of the box ( ), chemical loss of X ( ), and deposition of
[68]
X( ) (all in kg/sec):
The atmospheric lifetime of a species therefore measures the time required to restore equilibrium following an
increase in its concentration in the atmosphere. Individual atoms or molecules may be lost or deposited to sinks such
as the soil, the oceans and other waters, or vegetation and other biological systems, reducing the excess to
background concentrations. The average time taken to achieve this is the mean lifetime. The atmospheric lifetime of
CO2 is often incorrectly stated to be only a few years because that is the average time for any CO2 molecule to stay
in the atmosphere before being removed by mixing into the ocean, photosynthesis, or other processes. However, this
ignores the balancing fluxes of CO2 into the atmosphere from the other reservoirs. It is the net concentration changes
of the various greenhouse gases by all sources and sinks that determines atmospheric lifetime, not just the removal
processes.
Methane has an atmospheric lifetime of 12 ± 3 years and a GWP of 72 over 20 years, 25 over 100 years and 7.6 over
500 years. The decrease in GWP at longer times is because methane is degraded to water and CO2 through chemical
reactions in the atmosphere.
Examples of the atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 for several greenhouse gases are given in the
following table:[72]
Atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 at different time horizon for various
greenhouse gases.
Gas name Chemical Lifetime Global warming potential (GWP) for given time horizon
formula (years)
20-yr 100-yr 500-yr
The use of CFC-12 (except some essential uses) has been phased out due to its ozone depleting properties.[73] The
phasing-out of less active HCFC-compounds will be completed in 2030.[74]
Airborne fraction
Airborne fraction (AF) is the proportion of an emission (e.g. CO2) remaining in the atmosphere after a specified
time. Canadell (2007)[75] define the annual AF as the ratio of the atmospheric CO2 increase in a given year to that
year’s total emissions, and calculate that of the average 9.1 PgC y−1 of total anthropogenic emissions from 2000 to
2006, the AF was 0.45. For CO2 the AF over the last 50 years (1956–2006) has been increasing at 0.25 ±
0.21%/year.[75]
Negative emissions
There exists a number of technologies which produce negative emissions of greenhouse gases. Most widely analysed
are those which remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, either to geologic formations such as bio-energy with
carbon capture and storage[76] [77] [78] and carbon dioxide air capture,[78] or to the soil as in the case with biochar.[78]
It has been pointed out by the IPCC, that many long-term climate scenario models require large scale manmade
negative emissions in order to avoid serious climate change.[79]
Greenhouse gas 99
Related effects
Carbon monoxide has an indirect radiative effect by
elevating concentrations of methane and tropospheric
ozone through scavenging of atmospheric constituents
(e.g., the hydroxyl radical, OH) that would otherwise
destroy them. Carbon monoxide is created when
carbon-containing fuels are burned incompletely.
Through natural processes in the atmosphere, it is
eventually oxidized to carbon dioxide. Carbon monoxide
has an atmospheric lifetime of only a few months[80] and
as a consequence is spatially more variable than
longer-lived gases.
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[71] Caldeira, Ken; Wickett, Michael E. (2005). "Ocean model predictions of chemistry changes from carbon dioxide emissions to the
atmosphere and ocean" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070810202611/ http:/ / www. ipsl. jussieu. fr/ ~jomce/ acidification/ paper/
Caldeira_Wickett_2005_JGR. pdf) (PDF). Journal of Geophysical Research 110 (C9): C09S04.1–12. Bibcode 2005JGRC..11009S04C.
doi:10.1029/2004JC002671. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. ipsl. jussieu. fr/ ~jomce/ acidification/ paper/
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[72] IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Table 2.14, Chap. 2, p. 212 (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter2.
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[73] Use of ozone depleting substances in laboratories (http:/ / www. norden. org/ pub/ ebook/ 2003-516. pdf). TemaNord 2003:516
[74] Montreal Protocol
[75] Canadell, J.G.; Le Quere, C.; Raupach, M.R.; Field, C.B.; Buitenhuis, E.T.; Ciais, P.; Conway, T.J.; Gillett, N.P.; Houghton, R.A.; Marland,
G. (2007). "Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks"
(http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ reprint/ 0702737104v1. pdf). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.. . Retrieved 15 March 2008.
[76] Obersteiner M, Azar C, Kauppi P, et al. (October 2001). "Managing climate risk". Science 294 (5543): 786–7.
doi:10.1126/science.294.5543.786b. PMID 11681318.
[77] Azar, C., Lindgren, K., Larson, E.D. and Möllersten, K. (2006). "Carbon capture and storage from fossil fuels and biomass – Costs and
potential role in stabilising the atmosphere" (http:/ / www. environmental-expert. com/ Files\6063\articles\6220\w30h4274h130580u. pdf).
Climatic Change 74: 47–79. doi:10.1007/s10584-005-3484-7. .
[78] "Geoengineering the climate: science, governance and uncertainty" (http:/ / royalsociety. org/ displaypagedoc. asp?id=35151). The Royal
Society. 2009. . Retrieved 12 September 2009.
[79] Fischer, B.S., N. Nakicenovic, K. Alfsen, J. Corfee Morlot, F. de la Chesnaye, J.-Ch. Hourcade, K. Jiang, M. Kainuma, E. La Rovere, A.
Matysek, A. Rana, K. Riahi, R. Richels, S. Rose, D. van Vuuren, R. Warren, (2007) “Issues related to mitigation in the long term context”, In
Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on
Climate Change (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg3/ ar4-wg3-chapter3. pdf) [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R.
Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[80] Impact of Emissions, Chemistry, and Climate on Atmospheric Carbon Monoxide: 100-year Predictions from a Global Chemistry-Climate
Model (http:/ / web. mit. edu/ globalchange/ www/ MITJPSPGC_Rpt35. pdf)PDF (115 KB)
[81] Shindell, Drew T. (2005). "An emissions-based view of climate forcing by methane and tropospheric ozone" (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/
vision/ earth/ lookingatearth/ methane. html). Geophysical Research Letters 32: L04803. Bibcode 2005GeoRL..3204803S.
doi:10.1029/2004GL021900. .
[82] "Methane's Impacts on Climate Change May Be Twice Previous Estimates" (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/ vision/ earth/ lookingatearth/ methane.
html). Nasa.gov. 2007-11-30. . Retrieved 2010-10-16.
Greenhouse gas 103
References
External links
• Greenhouse gas (http://www.dmoz.org/Science/Environment/Global_Change//) at the Open Directory
Project
• The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) (http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/aggi/)
• Atmospheric spectra of GHGs and other trace gases (http://www.spectralcalc.com/)
• Greenhouse Gases (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html) Sources, Levels, Study
results — University of Michigan; eia.doe.gov findings
• How Much Greenhouse Gas Does the United States Emit? (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/energy_in_brief/
greenhouse_gas.cfm)
• Grist article on convenient summary from various sources incl IPCC of greenhouse gas emissions (http://
gristmill.grist.org/story/2009/1/11/192838/298) * *
• Convenient summary of Greenhouse gas emissions (http://spreadsheets.google.com/
ccc?key=pzrff2j0rl2wNrQfxOKkYYQ)
• Greenhouse Gases (http://www.lakescientist.com/learn-about-lakes/lakes-climate-change/
lakes-and-greenhouse-gases.html)
Carbon dioxide emissions
• Carbon Emissions World Map in 2009 (http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Guardian/documents/2011/02/
10/CarbonWeb.pdf) Mark McCormick and Paul Scruton, Guardian February 2011
• Eddy covariance
• International Energy Annual: Reserves (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/res.html)
• International Energy Annual 2003: Carbon Dioxide Emissions (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/carbon.
html)
• International Energy Annual 2003: Notes and Sources for Table H.1co2 (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/
Notes for Table H_1co2.html) (Metric tons of carbon dioxide can be converted to metric tons of carbon
equivalent by multiplying by 12/44)
• Textbook on Eddy Covariance Measurements of Gas Emissions (http://www.licor.com/env/applications/
eddy_covariance/book.jsp)
• Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/) (NOAA)
• NOAA Paleoclimatology Program — Vostok Ice Core (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/antarctica/
vostok/vostok.html)
• NOAA CMDL CCGG — Interactive Atmospheric Data Visualization (http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg/iadv/
) NOAA CO2 data
• Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre FAQ (http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pns/faq.html) Includes links to
Carbon Dioxide statistics
• Little Green Data Book 2007 (http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDATASTA/64199955-1178226923002/
21322619/LGDB2007.pdf), World Bank. Lists CO2 statistics by country, including per capita and by country
income class.
• Database of carbon emissions of power plants (http://www.carma.org/)
• NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory (http://oco.jpl.nasa.gov/)
Methane emissions
• Eddy covariance
• BBC News — Thawing Siberian bogs are releasing more methane (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/
nature/5321046.stm)
Greenhouse gas 104
The rules governing the treatment of land use, land-use change and forestry for the second commitment period are
currently being renegotiated as part of the Bali Action Plan under the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Further
Commitments for Annex 1 Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) [4] .
The most recent options for rule changes under consideration are summarized in a "Non-Paper" the co-chairs of the
contact group on LULUCF (as of June 12)[5] .
Land use, land-use change and forestry 105
Of particular concern is deforestation, where logging or burning are followed by the conversion of the land to
agriculture or other land uses. Even if some forests are left standing, the resulting fragmented landscape typically
fails to support many species that previously existed there.
References
[1] Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) (http:/ / unfccc. int/ essential_background/ glossary/ items/ 3666. php#L), Glossary of
climate change acronyms, UNFCCC website. Retrieved 2009-01-11.
[2] "Vital Climate Graphics | UNEP/GRID-Arendal - Publications - Vital Climate Graphics" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ vital/ 10. htm).
Grida.no. . Retrieved 2010-04-29.
[3] "Microsoft Word - kpcmp8a3.doc" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ resource/ docs/ 2005/ cmp1/ eng/ 08a03. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-04-29.
[4] AWG-KP begins final year of work (http:/ / unfccc. int/ kyoto_protocol/ items/ 4795. php), UNFCCC website. Retrieved 2009-10-11.
[5] A text on other issues outlined in document FCCC/KP/AWG/2008/8 (http:/ / unfccc. int/ resource/ docs/ 2009/ awg8/ eng/ 08. pdf), UNFCCC
website. Retrieved 2009-10-11.
[6] Bierregaard, Richard; Claude Gascon, Thomas E. Lovejoy, and Rita Mesquita (eds.) (2001). Lessons from Amazonia: The Ecology and
Conservation of a Fragmented Forest. ISBN 0300084838.
[7] C. Michael Hogan. 2009. Painted Hunting Dog: Lycaon pictus, GlobalTwitcher.com, ed. N. Stromberg (http:/ / globaltwitcher. auderis. se/
artspec_information. asp?thingid=35993)
External links
• Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/
public/gpglulucf/gpglulucf.htm)
• IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/
land_use/index.htm)
Radiative forcing 106
Radiative forcing
In climate science, radiative forcing is loosely defined as the change in net irradiance at atmospheric boundaries
between different layers of the atmosphere, namely the troposphere and the stratosphere (the tropopause). Net
irradiance is the difference between the incoming radiation energy and the outgoing radiation energy in a given
climate system and is measured in Watts per square meter. The change is computed based on "unperturbed" values,
defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as the measured difference relative to a base
period. For radiative forcings for the industrial era, it is customary to take the year 1750 as the starting point. A
positive forcing (more incoming energy) tends to warm the system, while a negative forcing (more outgoing energy)
tends to cool it. Possible sources of radiative forcing are changes in insolation (incident solar radiation), or the
effects of variations in the amount of radiatively active gases and aerosols present. Because the IPCC regularly
assesses the radiative forcing, it also has a more specific technical definition - see "IPCC usage" section.
Radiation balance
The vast majority of the energy which affects Earth's weather comes from the Sun. The planet and its atmosphere
absorb and reflect some of the energy, while long-wave energy is radiated back into space. The balance between
absorbed and radiated energy determines the average temperature. The planet is warmer than it would be in the
absence of the atmosphere: see greenhouse effect.
The radiation balance can be altered by factors such as intensity of solar energy, reflection by clouds or gases,
absorption by various gases or surfaces, and emission of heat by various materials. Any such alteration is a radiative
forcing, and causes a new balance to be reached. In the real world this happens continuously as sunlight hits the
surface, clouds and aerosols form, the concentrations of atmospheric gases vary, and seasons alter the ground cover.
IPCC usage
The term “radiative forcing” has been used in the IPCC
Assessments with a specific technical meaning, to
denote an externally imposed perturbation in the
radiative energy budget of Earth’s climate system,
which may lead to changes in climate parameters.[1]
The exact definition used is:
In simple terms, radiative forcing is "...the rate of energy change per unit area of the globe as measured at the top of
the atmosphere."[4] In the context of climate change, the term "forcing" is restricted to changes in the radiation
balance of the surface-troposphere system imposed by external factors, with no changes in stratospheric dynamics,
no surface and tropospheric feedbacks in operation (i.e., no secondary effects induced because of changes in
tropospheric motions or its thermodynamic state), and no dynamically induced changes in the amount and
distribution of atmospheric water (vapour, liquid, and solid forms).
Radiative forcing can be used to estimate a subsequent change in equilibrium surface temperature (ΔTs) arising from
that radiative forcing via the equation:
where λ is the climate sensitivity, usually with units in K/(W/m2), and ΔF is the radiative forcing.[5] A typical value
of λ is 0.8 K/(W/m2), which gives a warming of 3K for doubling of CO2.
Example calculations
Radiative forcing (often measured in watts per square
meter) can be estimated in different ways for different
components. For the case of a change in solar
irradiance, the radiative forcing is the change in the
solar constant divided by 4 and multiplied by 0.7 to
take into account the geometry of the sphere and the
amount of reflected sunlight. For a greenhouse gas,
such as carbon dioxide, radiative transfer codes that
examine each spectral line for atmospheric conditions
can be used to calculate the change ΔF as a function of
changing concentration. These calculations can often be Radiative forcing for doubling CO2, as calculated by radiative
simplified into an algebraic formulation that is specific transfer code Modtran. Red lines are Planck curves.
to that gas.
where C is the CO2 concentration in parts per million by volume and C0 is the reference concentration.[6] The
relationship between carbon dioxide and radiative forcing is logarithmic so that increased concentrations have a
progressively smaller warming effect.
Formulas for other greenhouse gases such as methane, N2O or CFCs are given in the IPCC reports.[7]
Radiative forcing 108
Related measures
Radiative forcing is intended as a useful way to compare different causes of perturbations in a climate system. Other
possible tools can be constructed for the same purpose: for example Shine et al.[8] say "...recent experiments indicate
that for changes in absorbing aerosols and ozone, the predictive ability of radiative forcing is much worse... we
propose an alternative, the 'adjusted troposphere and stratosphere forcing'. We present GCM calculations showing
that it is a significantly more reliable predictor of this GCM's surface temperature change than radiative forcing. It is
a candidate to supplement radiative forcing as a metric for comparing different mechanisms...". In this quote, GCM
stands for "global circulation model", and the word "predictive" does not refer to the ability of GCMs to forecast
climate change. Instead, it refers to the ability of the alternative tool proposed by the authors to help explain the
system response.
References
[1] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 212. htm
[2] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 214. htm#611
[3] http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ syr/ ar4_syr. pdf
[4] Rockstrom, Johan; Steffen, Will; Noone, Kevin; Persson, Asa; Chapin, F. Stuart; Lambin, Eric F.; et al., TM; Scheffer, M et al. (2009). "A
safe operating space for humanity". Nature 461 (7263): 472–475. doi:10.1038/461472a. PMID 19779433.
[5] http:/ / www. grida. no/ publications/ other/ ipcc_tar/ ?src=/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 222. htm
[6] Myhre et al., New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 1998/
98GL01908. shtml), Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 25, No. 14, pp 2715–2718, 1998
[7] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 222. htm
[8] Shine et al., An alternative to radiative forcing for estimating the relative importance of climate change mechanisms (http:/ / www. agu. org/
pubs/ crossref/ 2003/ 2003GL018141. shtml), Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 30, No. 20, 2047, doi:10.1029/2003GL018141, 2003
External links
• CO2: The Thermostat that Controls Earth's Temperature (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/lacis_01/
) by NASA, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, October, 2010, Forcing vs. Feedbacks
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report (2007), Chapter 2, “Changes in
Atmospheric Constituents and Radiative Forcing,” (http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/
ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf) pp. 133–134 (PDF, 8.6 MB, 106 pp.).
• NOAA/ESRL Global Monitoring Division (no date), The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (http://www.
esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/). Calculations of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases.
• U.S. EPA (2009), Climate Change – Science (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/recentac.html).
Explanation of climate change topics including radiative forcing.
• United States National Research Council (2005), Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept
and Addressing Uncertainties (http://www.nap.edu/openbook/0309095069/html/), Board on Atmospheric
Sciences and Climate
• A layman's guide to radiative forcing, CO2e, global warming potential etc (http://www.darkoptimism.org/
2008/09/03/the-climate-science-translation-guide)
Urban heat island 109
Monthly rainfall is greater downwind of cities, partially due to the UHI. Increases in heat within urban centers
increases the length of growing seasons, and decreases the occurrence of weak tornadoes. Increases in the death rate
during heat waves has been shown to increase by latitude due to the urban heat island effect. The UHI decreases air
quality by increasing the production of pollutants such as ozone, and decreases water quality as warmer waters flow
into area streams, which stresses their ecosystems.
Not all cities have a distinct urban heat island. Mitigation of the urban heat island effect can be accomplished
through the use of green roofs and the use of lighter-colored surfaces in urban areas, which reflect more sunlight and
absorb less heat. Despite concerns raised about its possible contribution to global warming, comparisons between
urban and rural areas show that the urban heat island effects have little influence on global mean temperature
trends.[3] Recent qualitative speculations indicate that urban thermal plumes may contribute to variation in wind
patterns that may influence the melting of arctic ice packs and thereby the cycle of ocean current.[4]
Urban heat island 110
Causes
There are several causes of an urban heat island (UHI). The principal
reason for the nighttime warming is that buildings block surface heat
from radiating into the relatively cold night sky. Two other reasons are
changes in the thermal properties of surface materials and lack of
evapotranspiration (for example through lack of vegetation) in urban
areas. Materials commonly used in urban areas for pavement and roofs,
such as concrete and asphalt, have significantly different thermal bulk
properties (including heat capacity and thermal conductivity) and
surface radiative properties (albedo and emissivity) than the
surrounding rural areas. This causes a change in the energy balance of
the urban area, often leading to higher temperatures than surrounding
rural areas.[5]
Other causes of a UHI are due to geometric effects. The tall buildings
within many urban areas provide multiple surfaces for the reflection
and absorption of sunlight, increasing the efficiency with which urban
areas are heated. This is called the "urban canyon effect". Another
effect of buildings is the blocking of wind, which also inhibits cooling
by convection. Waste heat from automobiles, air conditioning,
industry, and other sources also contributes to the UHI. High levels of
pollution in urban areas can also increase the UHI, as many forms of
pollution change the radiative properties of the atmosphere.[5]
Some cities exhibit a heat island effect, largest at night. Seasonally, Thermal (top) and vegetation (bottom) locations
UHI shows up both in summer and winter.[6] [7] The typical around New York City via infrared satellite
temperature difference is several degrees between the center of the city imagery. A comparison of the images shows that
where vegetation is dense, temperatures are
and surrounding fields. The difference in temperature between an inner
cooler.
city and its surrounding suburbs is frequently mentioned in weather
reports, as in "68 °F (20 °C) downtown, 64 °F (18 °C) in the suburbs".
Black surfaces absorb significantly more electromagnetic radiation, and causes the surfaces of asphalt roads and
highways to heat.[8]
Diurnal behavior
The IPCC stated that "it is well-known that compared to non-urban areas urban heat islands raise night-time
temperatures more than daytime temperatures."[9] For example, Barcelona, Spain is 0.2 °C (0.4 °F) cooler for daily
maxima and 2.9 °C (5.2 °F) warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.[10] A description of the very first report
of the UHI by Luke Howard in the late 1810s said that the urban center of London was warmer at night than the
surrounding countryside by 3.7 °F (2.1 °C).[11] Though the warmer air temperature within the UHI is generally most
apparent at night, urban heat islands exhibit significant and somewhat paradoxical diurnal behavior. The air
temperature difference between the UHI and the surrounding environment is large at night and small during the day.
The opposite is true for skin temperatures of the urban landscape within the UHI.[12]
Throughout the daytime, particularly when the skies are free of clouds, urban surfaces are warmed by the absorption
of solar radiation. Surfaces in the urban areas tend to warm faster than those of the surrounding rural areas. By virtue
of their high heat capacities, urban surfaces act as a giant reservoir of heat energy. For example, concrete can hold
roughly 2,000 times as much heat as an equivalent volume of air. As a result, the large daytime surface temperature
within the UHI is easily seen via thermal remote sensing.[13] As is often the case with daytime heating, this warming
Urban heat island 111
also has the effect of generating convective winds within the urban boundary layer. It is theorized that, due to the
atmospheric mixing that results, the air temperature perturbation within the UHI is generally minimal or nonexistent
during the day, though the surface temperatures can reach extremely high levels.[14]
At night, the situation reverses. The absence of solar heating causes the atmospheric convection to decrease, and the
urban boundary layer begins to stabilize. If enough stabilization occurs, an inversion layer is formed. This traps
urban air near the surface, and keeping surface air warm from the still-warm urban surfaces, forming the nighttime
warmer air temperatures within the UHI. Other than the heat retention properties of urban areas, the nighttime
maximum in urban canyons could also be due to the blocking of "sky view" during cooling: surfaces lose heat at
night principally by radiation to the comparatively cool sky, and this is blocked by the buildings in an urban area.
Radiative cooling is more dominant when wind speed is low and the sky is cloudless, and indeed the UHI is found to
be largest at night in these conditions.[15]
Health effects
UHIs have the potential to directly influence the health and welfare of
urban residents. Within the United States alone, an average of 1,000
people die each year due to extreme heat.[23] As UHIs are
characterized by increased temperature, they can potentially increase
the magnitude and duration of heat waves within cities. Research has
found that the mortality rate during a heat wave increases
exponentially with the maximum temperature,[24] an effect that is
exacerbated by the UHI. The nighttime effect of UHIs can be
particularly harmful during a heat wave, as it deprives urban residents Image of Atlanta, Georgia, showing temperature
of the cool relief found in rural areas during the night.[25] distribution, with blue showing cool
temperatures, red warm, and hot areas appear
Research in the United States suggests that the relationship between white.
extreme temperature and mortality varies by location. Heat is more
likely to increase the risk of mortality in cities at mid-latitudes and high latitudes with significant annual temperature
variation. For example, when Chicago and New York experience unusually hot summertime temperatures, elevated
levels of illness and death are predicted. In contrast, parts of the country that are mild to hot year-round have a lower
public health risk from excessive heat. Research shows that residents of southern cities, such as Miami, tend to be
acclimated to hot weather conditions and therefore less vulnerable to heat related deaths.[26]
Urban heat island 112
Increased temperatures and sunny days help lead to the formation of low-level ozone from volatile organic
compounds and nitrous oxides which already exist in the air. As urban heat islands lead to increased temperatures
within cities, they contribute to worsened air quality.[27] UHIs also impair water quality. Hot pavement and rooftop
surfaces transfer their excess heat to stormwater, which then drains into storm sewers and raises water temperatures
as it is released into streams, rivers, ponds, and lakes. Rapid temperature changes can be stressful to aquatic
ecosystems.[28]
Mitigation
The temperature difference between urban areas and the surrounding
suburban or rural areas can be as much as 10 degrees. Nearly 40
percent of that increase is due to the prevalence of dark roofs, with the
balance coming from dark pavement and the declining presence of
vegetation. The heat island effect can be counteracted slightly by using
white or reflective materials to build houses, roofs, pavements, and
roads, thus increasing the overall albedo of the city. Relative to
remedying the other sources of the problem, replacing dark roofing
requires the least amount of investment for the most immediate return.
Green roof of City Hall in Chicago, Illinois.
A cool roof made from a reflective material such as vinyl can reflect
three-quarters of the sun’s rays – usually far more – and emit 70 or
more percent of the solar radiation absorbed by the building envelope. Asphalt built-up roofs (BUR), by comparison,
reflect between 6 percent and 26 percent of solar radiation.[32]
Urban heat island 113
Using light-colored concrete has proven effective in reflecting up to 50% more light than asphalt and reducing
ambient temperature.[33] A low albedo value, characteristic of black asphalt, absorbs a large percentage of solar heat
and contributes to the warming of cities. By paving with light colored concrete, in addition to replacing asphalt with
light-colored concrete, communities can lower their average temperature.[34] This is a long established practice in
many countries.
A second option is to increase the amount of well-watered vegetation. These two options can be combined with the
implementation of green roofs. Green roofs are excellent insulators during the warm weather months and the plants
cool the surrounding environment. Air quality is improved as the plants absorb and convert carbon dioxide to
oxygen.[35] The city of New York determined that the cooling potential per area was highest for street trees,
followed by living roofs, light covered surface, and open space planting. From the standpoint of cost effectiveness,
light surfaces, light roofs, and curbside planting have lower costs per temperature reduction.[36]
A hypothetical "cool communities" program in Los Angeles has projected that urban temperatures could be reduced
by approximately 3 °C (5 °F) after planting ten million trees, reroofing five million homes, and painting one-quarter
of the roads at an estimated cost of US$1 billion, giving estimated annual benefits of US$170 million from reduced
air-conditioning costs and US$360 million in smog related health savings.[37]
Global warming
Because some parts of some cities may be hotter than their
surroundings, concerns have been raised that the effects of urban
sprawl might be misinterpreted as an increase in global temperature.
While the "heat island" warming is an important local effect, there is
no evidence that it biases trends in historical temperature record. For
example, urban and rural trends are very similar.[9]
Ground temperature measurements, like most weather observations, are logged by location. Their siting predates the
massive sprawl, roadbuilding programs, and high- and medium-rise expansions which contribute to the UHI. More
Urban heat island 114
importantly, station logs allow sites in question to be filtered easily from data sets. Doing so, the presence of heat
islands is visible, but overall trends change in magnitude, not direction. The effects of the urban heat island may be
overstated. One study stated, "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of
urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." This was done by using satellite-based night-light detection of
urban areas, and more thorough homogenisation of the time series (with corrections, for example, for the tendency of
surrounding rural stations to be slightly higher in elevation, and thus cooler, than urban areas). If its conclusion is
accepted, then it is necessary to "unravel the mystery of how a global temperature time series created partly from
urban in situ stations could show no contamination from urban warming." The main conclusion is that microscale
and local-scale impacts dominate the mesoscale impact of the urban heat island. Many sections of towns may be
warmer than rural sites, but surface weather observations are likely to be made in park "cool islands."[42]
Not all cities show a warming relative to their rural surroundings. After trends were adjusted in urban weather
stations around the world to match rural stations in their regions, in an effort to homogenise the temperature record,
in 42 percent of cases, cities were getting cooler relative to their surroundings rather than warmer. One reason is that
urban areas are heterogeneous, and weather stations are often sited in "cool islands" – parks, for example – within
urban areas.[43]
Studies in 2004 and 2006 attempted to test the urban heat island theory, by comparing temperature readings taken on
calm nights with those taken on windy nights.[44] [45] If the urban heat island theory is correct then instruments
should have recorded a bigger temperature rise for calm nights than for windy ones, because wind blows excess heat
away from cities and away from the measuring instruments. There was no difference between the calm and windy
nights, and one study said that we show that, globally, temperatures over land have risen as much on windy nights as
on calm nights, indicating that the observed overall warming is not a consequence of urban development.[44] [46]
A view often held by skeptics of global warming is that much of the temperature increase seen in land based
thermometers could be due to an increase in urbanization and the siting of measurement stations in urban areas.[47]
For example, Ross McKitrick and Patrick J. Michaels conducted a statistical study of surface-temperature data
regressed against socioeconomic indicators, and concluded that about half of the observed warming trend (for
1979–2002) could be accounted for by the residual UHI effects in the corrected temperature data set they
studied—which had already been processed to remove the (modeled) UHI contribution.[48] [49] Critics of this paper,
including Gavin A. Schmidt,[50] have said the results can be explained away as an artifact of spatial autocorrelation.
Mckittrick and Nicolas Nierenberg have rebutted Schmidt's critique, and found that "the evidence for contamination
of climatic data is robust across numerous data sets." [51]
Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report from the IPCC states the following.
Studies that have looked at hemispheric and global scales conclude that any urban-related trend is an order of
magnitude smaller than decadal and longer time-scale trends evident in the series (e.g., Jones et al., 1990;
Peterson et al., 1999). This result could partly be attributed to the omission from the gridded data set of a small
number of sites (<1%) with clear urban-related warming trends. In a worldwide set of about 270 stations,
Parker (2004, 2006) noted that warming trends in night minimum temperatures over the period 1950 to 2000
were not enhanced on calm nights, which would be the time most likely to be affected by urban warming.
Thus, the global land warming trend discussed is very unlikely to be influenced significantly by increasing
urbanisation (Parker, 2006). ... Accordingly, this assessment adds the same level of urban warming uncertainty
as in the TAR: 0.006°C per decade since 1900 for land, and 0.002°C per decade since 1900 for blended land
with ocean, as ocean UHI is zero.[52]
Urban heat island 115
Ocean temperatures
Climate reporting includes "global average surface temperature," which is combined from the land surface
temperature and ocean surface temperature. As the Fourth Assessment hints, the oceans are immune to urban
measurement effects. Oceanic data is in hand from a wide variety of different data collection methods, taken by both
civil and national defense groups, and academic and commercial groups, as well as multiple subsurface readings:
• Fixed and drifting weather buoys
• Weather ships and ships' logs [53]
• Several sinker and float types
• Ocean acoustic tomography
As water covers approximately 70% of the surface of the Earth, has a higher thermal mass, and can mix, any possible
errors due to urbanization (itself a fraction of the land area) will be averaged down to a fraction of their original
magnitude.
Three-dimensional sampling
In addition, lower-, middle-, upper-, and ultrahigh-atmosphere datasets can be consulted. In addition to distance,
winds and mixing, as mentioned above, average down any effects of urban heating on an instrument. Many weather
balloons are launched daily, around the world; balloons often reach the stratosphere, and depending on launch site
may also overfly oceans. Dedicated weather planes exist; AIREP and AMDAR data from airliner programs (both
dedicated, and incidental) also records the stratosphere, and includes transoceanic routes. Satellites observe over both
land and water, recording temperatures at altitude through infrared and microwave radiometry, and now
refractometry. In exceptional situations dropsondes may be used to profile storms in three dimensions. Lower-quality
data can be obtained with rocketsondes, temperature LIDARs, measurement of orbital decay on suitable satellites,
and other methods.
Phenology
Most phenologies are not reliant on instrumentation, and are largely immune to calibration effects. While they are
subject to observer and sampling effects, and have far coarser resolutions, they complement instrument data by
acting as independent checks. Phenologies also include shifts in the ranges of fish, and high-altitude observations.
References
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Urban heat island 116
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[16] Arizona Board of Regents (2006). "Urban Climate – Climate Study and UHI via the Internet Wayback Machine" (http:/ / web. archive. org/
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[17] Chiel C. van Heerwaarden and J. Vilà-Guerau de Arellano (2008). "Relative humidity as an indicator for cloud formation over
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[18] Fuchs, Dale (2005-06-28). "Spain goes hi-tech to beat drought" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ weather/ Story/ 0,2763,1516375,00. html).
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[19] Goddard Space Flight Center (2002-06-18). "NASA Satellite Confirms Urban Heat Islands Increase Rainfall Around Cities" (http:/ / web.
archive. org/ web/ 20080612173654/ http:/ / www. gsfc. nasa. gov/ topstory/ 20020613urbanrain. html). National Aeronautics and Space
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[21] NASA (2004-06-29). "Urban Heat Islands Make Cities Greener" (http:/ / eobglossary. gsfc. nasa. gov/ Newsroom/ NasaNews/ 2004/
2004072917348. html). Press release. . Retrieved 2007-08-02.
[22] Gretchen Cook-Anderson (2004-06-29). "Urban Heat Islands Make Cities Greener" (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/ centers/ goddard/ news/
topstory/ 2004/ 0801uhigreen. html). NASA. . Retrieved 2007-08-02.
[23] S. A. Changnon, Jr., K. E. Kunkel, and B. C. Reinke (1996). "Impacts and responses to the 1995 heat wave: A call to action". Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society 77: 1497–1506. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<1497:IARTTH>2.0.CO;2.
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[26] Robert E. Davis, Paul C. Knappenberger, Patrick J. Michaels, and Wendy M. Novicoff (November 2003). "Changing Heat-Related
Mortality in the United States" (http:/ / www. ehponline. org/ members/ 2003/ 6336/ 6336. html). Environmental Health Perspectives 111
(14): 1712–1718. doi:10.1289/ehp.6336. PMC 1241712. PMID 14594620. .
[27] New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (2006-06-13). "Weather and Air Quality" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/
20061008122320/ http:/ / www. nj. gov/ dep/ airmon/ waqpage. htm). Interet Archive Wayback Machine. Archived from the original (http:/ /
www. nj. gov/ dep/ airmon/ waqpage. htm) on 2006-10-08. . Retrieved 2008-06-18.
[28] "Urban Climate – Climate Study and UHI" (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ hiri/ about/ index. htm). United States Environmental Protection
Agency. 2009-02-09. . Retrieved 2009-06-18.
[29] Paul A. Tipler and Gene Mosca (2007). Physics for Scientists and Engineers (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=BMVR37-8Jh0C&
pg=PA686& lpg=PA686& dq=satellite+ temperature+ urban+ heat+ island+ book& source=bl& ots=hEWBhB9LVb&
sig=_UwQfiQQgzI9PjWJ9fJwYY_HEp8& hl=en& ei=f8kwTaDhLsSugQfJ4pSgCw& sa=X& oi=book_result& ct=result& resnum=4&
sqi=2& ved=0CCsQ6AEwAw#v=onepage& q=satellite temperature urban heat island book& f=false). Macmillan. p. 686.
ISBN 9781429201247. . Retrieved 2011-01-14.
[30] Sheng-chieh Chang (2000-06-23). "Energy Use" (http:/ / eetd. lbl. gov/ HeatIsland/ EnergyUse/ ). Environmental Energies Technology
Division. . Retrieved 2009-06-18.
[31] "Aging and Weathering of Cool Roofing Membranes" (http:/ / www. vinylroofs. org/ downloads/ library/ aging_weathering. pdf). Cool
Roofing Symposium. 2005-08-23. . Retrieved 2010-08-16.
[32] "Comprehensive Cool Roof Guide from the Vinyl Roofing Division of the Chemical Fabrics and Film Association" (http:/ / vinylroofs. org/
cool-roofs/ cool-roofs-explained. html). .
[33] "Cool Pavement Report" (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ heatisland/ resources/ pdf/ CoolPavementReport_Former Guide_complete. pdf) (PDF).
Environmental Protection Agency. June 2005. p. 14. . Retrieved 2009-02-06.
[34] Al Gore; A. Steffen (2008). World Changing: A User's Guide for the 21st Century. New York: Abrams. pp. 258.
[35] "Green (Planted) Roofs" (http:/ / vinylroofs. org/ cool-roofs/ green-planted-roofs. html). . Retrieved 2010-08-07.
[36] New York City Regional Heat Island Initiative (October 2006). "Mitigating New York City's Heat Island With Urban Forestry, Living
Roofs, and Light Surfaces" (http:/ / www. nyserda. org/ programs/ environment/ emep/ project/ 6681_25/ 06-06 Complete report-web. pdf).
Urban heat island 117
New York State Energy Research and Development Authority. p. ii. . Retrieved 2009-06-18.
[37] Arthur Rosenfeld; Joseph Romm; Hashem Akbari; Alana Lloyd (February/March 1997). "Painting the Town White -- and Green" (http:/ /
eetd. lbl. gov/ HeatIsland/ PUBS/ PAINTING/ ). MIT Technology Review. . Retrieved 2007-09-29.
[38] "Voluntary Green Building Programs" (http:/ / vinylroofs. org/ cool-roofs/ green-programs. html). . Retrieved 2010-08-17.
[39] "LEED 2009 for New Construction and Major Renovations Rating System" (http:/ / www. usgbc. org/ ShowFile. aspx?DocumentID=5546).
US Green Building Council. November 2008. . Retrieved 2010-08-17.
[40] "Green Globes" (http:/ / vinylroofs. org/ cool-roofs/ green-programs-globes. html). . Retrieved 2010-08-17.
[41] http:/ / www. atypon-link. com/ ALEX/ doi/ abs/ 10. 2148/ benv. 33. 1. 115
[42] T. C. Peterson (2003). "Assessment of Urban Versus Rural In Situ Surface Temperatures in the Contiguous United States: No Difference
Found" (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ oa/ wmo/ ccl/ rural-urban. pdf). Journal of Climate 16: 2941–2959.
doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2941:AOUVRI>2.0.CO;2. .
[43] J. Hansen, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, M. Imhoff, W. Lawrence, D. Easterling, T. Peterson, and T. Karl (2001). "A closer look at United States and
global surface temperature change". Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 239–247. Bibcode 2001JGR...10623947H.
doi:10.1029/2001JD000354.
[44] D. E. Parker (2004). "Climate: Large-scale warming is not urban". Nature 432 (7015): 290. doi:10.1038/432290a. PMID 15549087.
[45] David E. Parker (2006). "A demonstration that large-scale warming is not urban". Journal of Climate 19: 2882–2895.
doi:10.1175/JCLI3730.1.
[46] Black, Richard (2004-11-18). "Climate change sceptics 'wrong'" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ uk_news/ 4021197. stm). BBC News. .
Retrieved 2007-08-02.
[47] Richard Black (2004-11-18). "Climate change sceptics 'wrong'" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ uk/ 4021197. stm). BBC. . Retrieved
2009-06-18.
[48] McKitrick, R.R. and P.J. Michaels (2007), Quantifying the influence of anthropogenic surface processes and inhomogeneities on gridded
global climate data, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24S09, doi:10.1029/2007JD008465. Full text (http:/ / www. uoguelph. ca/ ~rmckitri/ research/
jgr07/ M& M. JGRDec07. pdf)
[49] Non-technical summary of M&M 2007 by McKitrick (http:/ / www. uoguelph. ca/ ~rmckitri/ research/ jgr07/ M& M. JGR07-background.
pdf)
[50] Gavin A. Schmidt, 2009, "Spurious correlations between recent warming and indices of local economic activity." International Journal of
Climatology, http:/ / dx. doi. org/ 10. 1002/ joc. 1831, full text (http:/ / www3. interscience. wiley. com/ cgi-bin/ fulltext/ 121590177/
PDFSTART)
[51] McKitrick, Ross R. and Nicolas Nierenberg (2010), "Socioeconomic Patterns in Climate Data." Journal of Economic and Social
Measurement, Volume 35, Number 3-4 / 2010. doi:10.3233/JEM-2010-0336. Full text (http:/ / rossmckitrick. weebly. com/ uploads/ 4/ 8/ 0/ 8/
4808045/ final_jesm_dec2010. formatted. pdf). Also see (http:/ / rossmckitrick. weebly. com/ temperature-data-quality. html) for a
non-technical summary, and comments on the publication delay.
[52] Kevin E. Trenberth, Philip D. Jones, Peter Ambenje, Roxana Bojariu, David Easterling, Albert Klein Tank, David Parker, Fatemeh
Rahimzadeh, James A. Renwick, Matilde Rusticucci, Brian Soden, and Panmao Zhai (2007). "IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Chapter 3 -
Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter3. pdf).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. p. 244. . Retrieved 2009-06-27.
[53] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ oa/ climate/ coads/
Further reading
• P. D. Jones, P.Y. Groisman, M. Coughlan, N. Plummer, W.-C. Wang, T.R. Karl (1990). "Assessment of
urbanization effects in time series of surface air temperature over land". Nature 347: 169–172.
doi:10.1038/347169a0.
• Helmut E. Landsberg (1981). The Urban Climate. New York: Academic Press. ISBN 0124359604.
External links
• Land-Surface Air Temperature (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/052.htm#2221) - from the IPCC
• Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Heat Island Group (http://eetd.lbl.gov/HeatIsland/)
• NASA Earth Observatory: The Earth's Big Cities, Urban Heat Islands (http://eobglossary.gsfc.nasa.gov/Study/
GreenRoof/index.html)
• Urban Heat Islands and Climate Change (http://www.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/~jon/WWW/uhi-melb.html) -
from the University of Melbourne, Australia
• Reducing Urban Heat Islands: Compendium of Strategies – Green Roofs (http://vinylroofs.org/downloads/
green-roofs/GreenRoofsCompendium.pdf)
Urban heat island 118
Albedo
Albedo (English pronunciation: /ælˈbiːdoʊ/), or reflection coefficient, is the
diffuse reflectivity or reflecting power of a surface. It is defined as the
ratio of reflected radiation from the surface to incident radiation upon
it. Being a dimensionless fraction, it may also be expressed as a
percentage, and is measured on a scale from zero for no reflecting
power of a perfectly black surface, to 1 for perfect reflection of a white
surface.
Terrestrial albedo
Albedo 119
Sample albedos
Surface Typical
albedo
Albedos of typical materials in visible light range from up to 0.9 for fresh snow, to about 0.04 for charcoal, one of
the darkest substances. Deeply shadowed cavities can achieve an effective albedo approaching the zero of a black
body. When seen from a distance, the ocean surface has a low albedo, as do most forests, while desert areas have
some of the highest albedos among landforms. Most land areas are in an albedo range of 0.1 to 0.4.[7] The average
albedo of the Earth is about 0.3.[8] This is far higher than for the ocean primarily because of the contribution of
clouds.
Human activities have changed the albedo (via forest clearance and farming, for example) of various areas around
the globe. However, quantification of this effect on the global scale is difficult.
The classic example of albedo effect is the snow-temperature feedback. If a snow-covered area warms and the snow
melts, the albedo decreases, more sunlight is absorbed, and the temperature tends to increase. The converse is true: if
snow forms, a cooling cycle happens. The intensity of the albedo effect depends on the size of the change in albedo
and the amount of insolation; for this reason it can be potentially very large in the tropics.
Albedo 120
The Earth's average surface temperature due to its albedo and the
greenhouse effect is currently about 15°C. For the frozen (more
reflective) planet the average temperature is below -40°C[10] (If
only all continents being completely covered by glaciers - the
[11]
mean temperature is about 0°C ). The simulation for (more
absorptive) aquaplanet shows the average temperature close to
2003-2004 mean annual clear sky and total sky albedo 27°C.[12]
Astronomical albedo
The albedos of planets, satellites and asteroids can be used to infer much about their properties. The study of
albedos, their dependence on wavelength, lighting angle ("phase angle"), and variation in time comprises a major
part of the astronomical field of photometry. For small and far objects that cannot be resolved by telescopes, much of
what we know comes from the study of their albedos. For example, the absolute albedo can indicate the surface ice
content of outer solar system objects, the variation of albedo with phase angle gives information about regolith
properties, while unusually high radar albedo is indicative of high metallic content in asteroids.
Enceladus, a moon of Saturn, has one of the highest known albedos of any body in the Solar system, with 99% of
EM radiation reflected. Another notable high albedo body is Eris, with an albedo of 0.86. Many small objects in the
outer solar system[14] and asteroid belt have low albedos down to about 0.05.[15] A typical comet nucleus has an
albedo of 0.04.[16] Such a dark surface is thought to be indicative of a primitive and heavily space weathered surface
containing some organic compounds.
The overall albedo of the Moon is around 0.12, but it is strongly directional and non-Lambertian, displaying also a
strong opposition effect.[17] While such reflectance properties are different from those of any terrestrial terrains, they
are typical of the regolith surfaces of airless solar system bodies.
Albedo 121
Two common albedos that are used in astronomy are the (V-band) geometric albedo (measuring brightness when
illumination comes from directly behind the observer) and the Bond albedo (measuring total proportion of
electromagnetic energy reflected). Their values can differ significantly, which is a common source of confusion.
In detailed studies, the directional reflectance properties of astronomical bodies are often expressed in terms of the
five Hapke parameters which semi-empirically describe the variation of albedo with phase angle, including a
characterization of the opposition effect of regolith surfaces.
The correlation between astronomical (geometric) albedo, absolute magnitude and diameter is:[18]
where is the astronomical albedo, is the diameter in kilometres, and H is the absolute magnitude.
The tropics
Although the albedo-temperature effect is best known in colder regions on Earth, because more snow falls there, it is
actually much stronger in tropical regions which receive consistently more sunlight.
Trees
Because trees tend to have a low albedo, removing forests would tend to increase albedo and thereby could produce
localized climate cooling (ignoring the lost evaporative cooling effect of trees). Cloud feedbacks further complicate
the issue. In seasonally snow-covered zones, winter albedos of treeless areas are 10% to 50% higher than nearby
forested areas because snow does not cover the trees as readily. Deciduous trees have an albedo value of about 0.15
to 0.18 while coniferous trees have a value of about 0.09 to 0.15.[4]
Studies by the Hadley Centre have investigated the relative (generally warming) effect of albedo change and
(cooling) effect of carbon sequestration on planting forests. They found that new forests in tropical and midlatitude
areas tended to cool; new forests in high latitudes (e.g. Siberia) were neutral or perhaps warming.[20]
Snow
Snow albedos can be as high as 0.9; this, however, is for the ideal example: fresh deep snow over a featureless
landscape. Over Antarctica they average a little more than 0.8. If a marginally snow-covered area warms, snow tends
to melt, lowering the albedo, and hence leading to more snowmelt (the ice-albedo positive feedback). Cryoconite,
powdery windblown dust containing soot, sometimes reduces albedo on glaciers and ice sheets.[21]
Water
Water reflects light very differently from typical terrestrial materials. The reflectivity of a water surface is calculated
using the Fresnel equations (see graph).
Albedo 122
Note that white caps on waves look white (and have high albedo) because the water is foamed up, so there are many
superimposed bubble surfaces which reflect, adding up their reflectivities. Fresh ‘black’ ice exhibits Fresnel
reflection.
Clouds
Cloud albedo is an important factor in the global warming effect. Different types of clouds exhibit different
reflectivity, theoretically ranging in albedo from a minimum of near 0 to a maximum approaching 0.8. "On any given
day, about half of Earth is covered by clouds, which reflect more sunlight than land and water. Clouds keep Earth
cool by reflecting sunlight, but they can also serve as blankets to trap warmth."[23]
Albedo and climate in some areas are affected by artificial clouds, such as those created by the contrails of heavy
commercial airliner traffic.[24] A study following the burning of the Kuwaiti oil fields during Iraqi occupation
showed that temperatures under the burning oil fires were as much as 10oC colder than temperatures several miles
away under clear skies.[25]
Aerosol effects
Aerosols (very fine particles/droplets in the atmosphere) have both direct and indirect effects on the Earth’s radiative
balance. The direct (albedo) effect is generally to cool the planet; the indirect effect (the particles act as cloud
condensation nuclei and thereby change cloud properties) is less certain.[26] As per [27] the effects are:
• Aerosol direct effect. Aerosols directly scatter and absorb radiation. The scattering of radiation causes
atmospheric cooling, whereas absorption can cause atmospheric warming.
• Aerosol indirect effect. Aerosols modify the properties of clouds through a subset of the aerosol population
called cloud condensation nuclei. Increased nuclei concentrations lead to increased cloud droplet number
concentrations, which in turn leads to increased cloud albedo, increased light scattering and radiative cooling
(first indirect effect), but also leads to reduced precipitation efficiency and increased lifetime of the cloud
(second indirect effect).
Albedo 123
Black carbon
Another albedo-related effect on the climate is from black carbon particles. The size of this effect is difficult to
quantify: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that the global mean radiative forcing for black
carbon aerosols from fossil fuels is +0.2 W m−2, with a range +0.1 to +0.4 W m−2.[28]
References
[1] Environmental Encyclopedia, 3rd ed., Thompson Gale, 2003, ISBN 0-7876-5486-8
[2] Pon, Brian (1999-06-30). "Pavement Albedo" (http:/ / eetd. lbl. gov/ HeatIsland/ Pavements/ Albedo/ ). Heat Island Group. . Retrieved
2007-08-27.
[3] Alan K. Betts, John H. Ball (1997). "Albedo over the boreal forest" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 1997/ 96JD03876. shtml). Journal
of Geophysical 102 (D24): 28,901–28,910. Bibcode 1997JGR...10228901B. doi:10.1029/96JD03876. . Retrieved 2007-08-27.
[4] "The Climate System" (http:/ / www. ace. mmu. ac. uk/ Resources/ gcc/ 1-3-3. html). Manchester Metropolitan University. . Retrieved
2007-11-11.
[5] Tom Markvart, Luis CastaŁżer (2003). Practical Handbook of Photovoltaics: Fundamentals and Applications. Elsevier.
ISBN 1-85617-390-9.
[6] Tetzlaff, G. (1983). Albedo of the Sahara. pp. 60–63.
[7] Albedo - from Eric Weisstein's World of Physics (http:/ / scienceworld. wolfram. com/ physics/ Albedo. html)
[8] Goode, P. R.; et al. (2001). "Earthshine Observations of the Earth’s Reflectance" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ ABS/ 2001/
2000GL012580. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 28 (9): 1671–1674. Bibcode 2001GeoRL..28.1671G. doi:10.1029/2000GL012580. .
[9] "MODIS BRDF/Albedo Product: Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document, Version 5.0" (http:/ / modis. gsfc. nasa. gov/ data/ atbd/
atbd_mod09. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-06-02.
[10] "Snowball Earth: Ice thickness on the tropical ocean" (http:/ / www. atmos. washington. edu/ ~sgw/ PAPERS/ 2002_Snowball. pdf). .
Retrieved 2009-09-20.
[11] "Effect of land albedo, CO2, orography, and oceanic heat transport on extreme climates" (http:/ / www. clim-past. net/ 2/ 31/ 2006/
cp-2-31-2006. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-09-20.
[12] "Global climate and ocean circulation on an aquaplanet ocean-atmosphere general circulation model" (http:/ / www. mpimet. mpg. de/
fileadmin/ staff/ smithrobin/ IC_JClim-final. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-09-20.
[13] Roman, M. O.; C.B. Schaaf, P. Lewis, F. Gao, G.P. Anderson, J.L. Privette, A.H. Strahler, C.E. Woodcock, and M. Barnsley (2010).
"Assessing the Coupling between Surface Albedo derived from MODIS and the Fraction of Diffuse Skylight over Spatially-Characterized
Landscapes". Remote Sensing of Environment 114: 738–760. doi:10.1016/j.rse.2009.11.014.
[14] Wm. Robert Johnston (2008-09-17). "TNO/Centaur diameters and albedos" (http:/ / www. johnstonsarchive. net/ astro/ tnodiam. html).
Johnston's Archive. . Retrieved 2008-10-17.
[15] Wm. Robert Johnston (2003-06-28). "Asteroid albedos: graphs of data" (http:/ / www. johnstonsarchive. net/ astro/ astalbedo. html).
Johnston's Archive. . Retrieved 2008-06-16.
[16] Robert Roy Britt (2001-11-29). "Comet Borrelly Puzzle: Darkest Object in the Solar System" (http:/ / www. space. com/ scienceastronomy/
solarsystem/ borrelly_dark_011129. html). Space.com. . Retrieved 2008-10-26.
[17] Medkeff, Jeff (2002). "Lunar Albedo" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20080523151225/ http:/ / jeff. medkeff. com/ astro/ lunar/ obs_tech/
albedo. htm). Archived from the original (http:/ / jeff. medkeff. com/ astro/ lunar/ obs_tech/ albedo. htm) on 23 May 2008. . Retrieved 5 July
2010
[18] Dan Bruton. "Conversion of Absolute Magnitude to Diameter for Minor Planets" (http:/ / www. physics. sfasu. edu/ astro/ asteroids/
sizemagnitude. html). Department of Physics & Astronomy (Stephen F. Austin State University). . Retrieved 2008-10-07.
[19] Health and Safety: Be Cool! (August 1997) (http:/ / www. ranknfile-ue. org/ h& s0897. html)
[20] Betts, R.A. (2000) Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal forestation by decreases in surface albedo, Nature, Volume 408, Issue
6809, pp. 187-190.
[21] "Changing Greenland - Melt Zone" (http:/ / ngm. nationalgeographic. com/ 2010/ 06/ melt-zone/ jenkins-text/ 3) page 3, of 4, article by
Mark Jenkins in National Geographic June, 2010, accessed July 8, 2010
Albedo 124
[22] (http:/ / vih. freeshell. org/ pp/ 01-ONW-St. Petersburg/ Fresnel. pdf)
[23] Baffled Scientists Say Less Sunlight Reaching Earth | LiveScience (http:/ / www. livescience. com/ environment/ 060124_earth_albedo.
html)
[24] http:/ / facstaff. uww. edu/ travisd/ pdf/ jetcontrailsrecentresearch. pdf
[25] The Kuwait oil fires as seen by Landsat (http:/ / adsabs. harvard. edu/ abs/ 1992JGR. . . . 9714565C)
[26] Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 231. htm#671)
[27] DOMINICK V. SPRACKLEN, BORIS BONN, AND KENNETH S. CARSLAW. 2008. Boreal forests, aerosols and the impacts on clouds
and climate. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0201. http:/ / homepages. see. leeds. ac. uk/ ~eardvs/ papers/ spracklen08c. pdf
[28] Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 233. htm)
[29] wordsmith.org
External links
• www.albedo-project.org - Official Website of Albedo Project (http://www.albedo-project.org/)
• Albedo - Encyclopedia of Earth (http://www.eoearth.org/article/Albedo)
• NASA MODIS Terra BRDF/albedo product site (http://lpdaac.usgs.gov/modis/mod43b1.asp)
• NASA MODIS BRDF/albedo product site (http://www-modis.bu.edu/brdf/product.html)
• Surface albedo derived from Meteosat observations (http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/Main/Access_to_Data/
Meteosat_Meteorological_Products/Product_List/SP_1125489019643?l=en)
• A discussion of Lunar albedos (http://jeff.medkeff.com/astro/lunar/obs_tech/albedo.htm)
Bond event
Bond events are North Atlantic climate fluctuations occurring
every ≈1,470 ± 500 years throughout the Holocene. Eight such
events have been identified, primarily from fluctuations in
ice-rafted debris. Bond events may be the interglacial relatives of
the glacial Dansgaard-Oeschger events, with a magnitude of
perhaps 15-20% of the glacial-interglacial temperature change.
variations in solar output, and "reorganizations of atmospheric circulation."[7] Bond events may also be correlated
with the 1800 year lunar tidal cycle. [8]
References
[1] Bond, G.; et al. (1997). "A Pervasive Millennial-Scale Cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and Glacial Climates" (http:/ / rivernet. ncsu. edu/
courselocker/ PaleoClimate/ Bond et al. , 1997 Millenial Scale Holocene Change. pdf). Science 278 (5341): 1257–1266.
doi:10.1126/science.278.5341.1257. .
[2] Bond, G.; et al. (2001). "Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene". Science 294 (5549): 2130–2136.
doi:10.1126/science.1065680. PMID 11739949.
[3] Gupta, Anil K.; Anderson, David M.; Overpeck, Jonathan T. (2003). "Abrupt changes in the Asian southwest monsoon during the Holocene
and their links to the North Atlantic Ocean". Nature 421 (6921): 354–357. doi:10.1038/nature01340. PMID 12540924.
[4] Yongjin Wang; et al. (2005). "The Holocene Asian Monsoon: Links to Solar Changes and North Atlantic Climate". Science 308 (5723):
854–857. doi:10.1126/science.1106296. PMID 15879216.
[5] Parker, Adrian G.; et al. (2006). "A record of Holocene climate change from lake geochemical analyses in southeastern Arabia" (http:/ /
www. gulfnexus. org/ articles/ geo/ 2006a Parker et al. pdf). Quaternary Research 66 (3): 465–476. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2006.07.001. .
[6] Viau, André E.; et al. (2002). "Widespread evidence of 1,500 yr climate variability in North America during the past 14 000 yr". Geology 30
(5): 455–458. doi:10.1130/0091-7613(2002)030<0455:WEOYCV>2.0.CO;2.
[7] Cox, John D. (2005). Climate Crash: Abrupt Climate Change and What It Means for Our Future. Washington DC: Joseph Henry Press.
pp. 150–155. ISBN 0309093120.
[8] Keeling, Charles; Whorf, TP (2000). "The 1,800-Year Oceanic Tidal Cycle: A Possible Cause of Rapid Climate Change". Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 97 (8): 3814–3819. doi:10.1073/pnas.070047197. JSTOR 122066. PMC 18099.
PMID 10725399.
[9] Swindles, Graeme T.; Plunkett, Gill; Roe, Helen M. (2007). "A delayed climatic response to solar forcing at 2800 cal. BP: multiproxy
evidence from three Irish peatlands". The Holocene 17 (2): 177–182. doi:10.1177/0959683607075830.
[10] Dahl, Svein Olaf; et al. (2002). "Timing, equilibrium-line altitudes and climatic implications of two early-Holocene glacier readvances
during the Erdalen Event at Jostedalsbreen, western Norway". The Holocene 12 (1): 17–25. doi:10.1191/0959683602hl516rp.
[11] Zhou Jing; Wang Sumin; Yang Guishan; Xiao Haifeng (2007). "Younger Dryas Event and Cold Events in Early-Mid Holocene: Record
from the sediment of Erhai Lake" (http:/ / www. climatechange. cn/ qikan/ manage/ wenzhang/ 08. pdf). Advances in Climate Change
Research 3 (Suppl.): 1673–1719. .
Glacial period 126
Glacial period
A glacial period (or alternatively glacial or glaciation) is an interval of time (thousands of years) within an ice age
that is marked by colder temperatures and glacier advances. Interglacials, on the other hand, are periods of warmer
climate within an ice age. The last glacial period ended about 15,000 years ago;[1] The Holocene epoch is the current
interglacial.
References
[1] J. Severinghaus, E. Brook (1999). "Abrupt Climate Change at the End of the Last Glacial Period Inferred from Trapped Air in Polar Ice"
(http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ short/ 286/ 5441/ 930). Science 286 (5441): 930–4. doi:10.1126/science.286.5441.930.
PMID 10542141. .
[2] F. Varadi, B. Runnegar, M. Ghil (2003). "Successive Refinements in Long-Term Integrations of Planetary Orbits" (http:/ / astrobiology. ucla.
edu/ OTHER/ SSO/ SolarSysInt. pdf). The Astrophysical Journal 592: 620–630. Bibcode 2003ApJ...592..620V. doi:10.1086/375560. .
[3] Berger A, Loutre MF (2002). "Climate: An exceptionally long interglacial ahead?". Science 297 (5585): 1287–8.
doi:10.1126/science.1076120. PMID 12193773.
Global cooling
Global cooling was a conjecture during the 1970s of imminent cooling
of the Earth's surface and atmosphere along with a posited
commencement of glaciation. This hypothesis had mixed support in the
scientific community, but gained temporary popular attention due to a
combination of press reports that did not accurately reflect the
scientific understanding of ice age cycles, and a slight downward trend
of temperatures from the 1940s to the early 1970s. In contrast to the
global cooling conjecture, the current scientific opinion on climate
Mean temperature anomalies during the period
change is that the Earth has not durably cooled, but undergone global
1965 to 1975 with respect to the average
warming throughout the twentieth century.[1] temperatures from 1937 to 1946. This dataset was
not available at the time.
where the radiative forcing is increasing, the sign of the temperature change over north-west Europe is positive."[7]
Physical mechanisms
The cooling period is well reproduced by current (1999 on) global climate models (GCMs) that include the physical
effects of sulphate aerosols, and there is now general agreement that aerosol effects were the dominant cause of the
mid-20th century cooling. However, at the time there were two physical mechanisms that were most frequently
advanced to cause cooling: aerosols and orbital forcing.
Aerosols
Human activity — mostly as a by-product of fossil fuel combustion, partly by land use changes — increases the
number of tiny particles (aerosols) in the atmosphere. These have a direct effect: they effectively increase the
planetary albedo, thus cooling the planet by reducing the solar radiation reaching the surface; and an indirect effect:
they affect the properties of clouds by acting as cloud condensation nuclei.[8] In the early 1970s some speculated that
this cooling effect might dominate over the warming effect of the CO2 release: see discussion of Rasool and
Schneider (1971), below. As a result of observations and a switch to cleaner fuel burning, this no longer seems
likely; current scientific work indicates that global warming is far more likely. Although the temperature drops
foreseen by this mechanism have now been discarded in light of better theory and the observed warming, aerosols
are believed to have contributed a cooling tendency (outweighted by increases in greenhouse gases) and also have
contributed to "Global Dimming."
Orbital forcing
Orbital forcing refers to the slow, cyclical changes in the tilt of Earth's
axis and shape of its orbit. These cycles alter the total amount of
sunlight reaching the earth by a small amount and affect the timing and
intensity of the seasons. This mechanism is believed to be responsible
for the timing of the ice age cycles, and understanding of the
mechanism was increasing rapidly in the mid-1970s.
describe only the long-term trends, because they are linked to orbital
variations with periods of 20,000 years and longer. Climatic oscillations at higher frequencies are not predicted... the
results indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere
glaciation and cooler climate".[9]
The idea that ice ages cycles were predictable appears to have become conflated with the idea that another one was
due "soon" - perhaps because much of this study was done by geologists, who are accustomed to dealing with very
long time scales and use "soon" to refer to periods of thousands of years. A strict application of the Milankovitch
theory does not allow the prediction of a "rapid" ice age onset (i.e., less than a century or two) since the fastest
orbital period is about 20,000 years. Some creative ways around this were found, notably one championed by Nigel
Calder under the name of "snowblitz", but these ideas did not gain wide acceptance.
It is common to see it asserted that the length of the current interglacial temperature peak is similar to the length of
the preceding interglacial peak (Sangamon/Eem), and from this conclude that we might be nearing the end of this
warm period. This conclusion is supported by the fact that the lengths of previous interglacials were regular; see
Global cooling 129
appended figure. Petit et al. note that "Interglacials 5.5 and 9.3 are different from the Holocene, but similar to each
other in duration, shape and amplitude."[10] During each of these two events, there is a warm period of 4000 years
followed by a relatively rapid cooling. As an objection, the future orbital variations will not closely resemble those
of the past.
Pre-1970s
At a conference on climate change held in Boulder, Colorado in 1965, evidence supporting Milankovitch cycles
triggered speculation on how the calculated small changes in sunlight might somehow trigger ice ages. In 1966
Cesare Emiliani predicted that "a new glaciation will begin within a few thousand years." In his 1968 book The
Population Bomb, Paul R. Ehrlich wrote "The greenhouse effect is being enhanced now by the greatly increased
level of carbon dioxide... [this] is being countered by low-level clouds generated by contrails, dust, and other
contaminants... At the moment we cannot predict what the overall climatic results will be of our using the
atmosphere as a garbage dump."[4]
1970s awareness
The temperature record as seen in 1975; compare with the next figure.
Concern peaked in the early 1970s, partly because of the cooling trend then apparent (a cooling period began in
1945, and two decades of a cooling trend suggested a trough had been reached after several decades of warming),
and partly because much less was then known about world climate and causes of ice ages. Although there was a
cooling trend then, climate scientists were aware that predictions based on this trend were not possible - because the
trend was poorly studied and not understood (for example see reference[11] ). However in the popular press the
possibility of cooling was reported generally without the caveats present in the scientific reports.
In the 1970s the compilation of records to produce hemispheric, or global, temperature records had just begun.
A history of the discovery of global warming states that: While neither scientists nor the public could be sure in the
1970s whether the world was warming or cooling, people were increasingly inclined to believe that global climate
was on the move, and in no small way.[12]
In 1972 Emiliani warned "Man's activity may either precipitate this new ice age or lead to substantial or even total
melting of the ice caps..."[13] By 1972 a group of glacial-epoch experts at a conference agreed that "the natural end of
our warm epoch is undoubtedly near";[14] but the volume of Quaternary Research reporting on the meeting said that
"the basic conclusion to be drawn from the discussions in this section is that the knowledge necessary for
Global cooling 130
understanding the mechanism of climate change is still lamentably inadequate". Unless there were impacts from
future human activity, they thought that serious cooling "must be expected within the next few millennia or even
centuries"; but many other scientists doubted these conclusions.[15] [16]
In 1972, George Kukla and Robert Matthews, in a Science write-up of a conference, asked when and how the current
integlacial would end; concluding that "Global cooling and related rapid changes of environment, substantially
exceeding the fluctuations experienced by man in historical times, must be expected within the next few millennia or
even centuries."[17]
1980s
Concerns about nuclear winter arose in the early 1980s from several reports. Similar speculations have appeared over
effects due to catastrophes such as asteroid impacts and massive volcanic eruptions. A prediction that massive oil
well fires in Kuwait would cause significant effects on climate was quite incorrect.
1990s
The idea of a global cooling as the result of global warming was already proposed in the 1990s.[29] In 2003, the
Office of Net Assessment at the United States Department of Defense was commissioned to produce a study on the
likely and potential effects of a modern climate change, especially of a shutdown of thermohaline circulation.[30] The
study, conducted under ONA head Andrew Marshall, modelled its prospective climate change on the 8.2 kiloyear
event, precisely because it was the middle alternative between the Younger Dryas and the Little Ice Age. The study
caused controversy in the media when it was made public in 2004.[31] [32] However, scientists acknowledge that
“abrupt climate change initiated by GIS melting is not a realistic scenario for the 21st century.”.[33]
greenhouse gases other than water vapor and carbon dioxide, such as methane, nitrous oxide, and
chlorofluorocarbons.[36] Early in that decade, carbon dioxide was the only widely studied human-influenced
greenhouse gas. The attention drawn to atmospheric gases in the 1970s stimulated many discoveries in future
decades. As the temperature pattern changed, global cooling was of waning interest by 1979.[28]
References
[1] "Summary for Policymakers" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-spm. pdf) (PDF). Climate Change 2007: The
Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007-02-05. . Retrieved 2007-02-02.
[2] Peterson, Thomas & Connolley, William & Fleck, John (September 2008). The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus (http:/
/ scienceblogs. com/ stoat/ Myth-1970-Global-Cooling-BAMS-2008. pdf). American Meteorological Society. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.
.
[3] "Science Past from the issue of May 9, 1959" (http:/ / www. sciencenews. org/ view/ generic/ id/ 43155/ title/
Science_Past_from_the_issue_of_May_9,_1959). Science News: p. 30. May 9, 2009. .
[4] Erlich, Paul. "Paul Erhlich on climate change in 1968" (http:/ / backseatdriving. blogspot. com/ 2005_07_01_backseatdriving_archive.
html#112148592454360291). Backseat driving. . Retrieved November 17, 2005.
[5] Schneider SH (November 1972). "Atmospheric particles and climate: can we evaluate the impact of mans activities?". Quaternary Research 2
(3): 425–35. doi:10.1016/0033-5894(72)90068-3. [ Precis (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ iceage/ quat_res_1972. html#schneider)
Lay summary].
[6] World's temperature likely to rise; The Times; 22 June 1976; pg 9; col A
[7] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/
357. htm). . Retrieved November 17, 2005.
[8] Rasool, S.I.; Schneider, S.H. (1971). "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate". Science
173 (3992): 138. doi:10.1126/science.173.3992.138. PMID 17739641.
[9] Hays, J.D.; Imbrie, J.; Shackleton, N.J. (1976). "Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages". Science 194 (4270): 1121.
doi:10.1126/science.194.4270.1121. PMID 17790893.
[10] Petit, J.R., et al. (1999). "Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica". Nature 399
(6735): 429–436. doi:10.1038/20859.
[11] Mason, B. J.. "QJRMS, 1976, p 473 (Symons Memorial Lecture)" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ iceage/ mason. 1976. html).
Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70s? No. . Retrieved November 17, 2005.
[12] Weart, Spencer. "The Modern Temperature Trend" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ 20ctrend. htm#L_0338). The Discovery of
Global Warming. . Retrieved November 17, 2005.
[13] Emiliani, Cesare (November 1972). "Quaternary hypsithermals". Quaternary Research 2 (3): 270–3. doi:10.1016/0033-5894(72)90047-6.
[14] Past Climate Cycles: Ice Age Speculations (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ cycles. htm#N_29_)
[15] Weart, Spencer. "Past Cycles: Ice Age Speculations" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ cycles. htm). The Discovery of Global
Warming. . Retrieved November 17, 2005.
[16] Kukla GJ, Matthews RK, Mitchell JM (November 1972). "Guest editorial: The end of the present interglacial". Quaternary Research 2 (3):
261–9. doi:10.1016/0033-5894(72)90046-4. [ Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70s? No (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/
iceage/ quat_res_1972. html) Lay summary].
[17] Kukla, G.J.; Matthews, R.K. (1972). "When Will the Present Interglacial End?". Science 178 (4057): 190–202.
doi:10.1126/science.178.4057.190. PMID 17789488.
[18] SCEP. "The 1970 SCEP report" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ iceage/ scep-1970. html). Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in
the '70s? No. . Retrieved November 17, 2005.
[19] Patterns and Perspectives in Environmental Science (Hardcover) (http:/ / www. archive. org/ details/ patternsperspect00nati). Report of the
National Science Board. Government Printing Office. 1972. pp. 55. . Retrieved July 15, 2008.
[20] Science and the challenges ahead : report of the National Science Board (http:/ / www. archive. org/ details/ sciencechallenge00nati).
Report of the National Science Board. Government Printing Office. 1974. pp. 24. . Retrieved July 18, 2008.
[21] Science and the challenges ahead : report of the National Science Board (http:/ / www. archive. org/ details/ sciencechallenge00nati).
Report of the National Science Board. Government Printing Office. 1974. pp. 25. . Retrieved July 18, 2008.
[22] U. S. National Academy of Sciences. "The 1975 US National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council Report" (http:/ / www.
wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ iceage/ nas-1975. html). Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70s? No. . Retrieved November 17, 2005.
[23] Singer, S. Fred. "Scientists add to heat over global warming" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20051119045242/ http:/ / sepp. org/ glwarm/
sciaddheat. html). Archived from the original (http:/ / sepp. org/ glwarm/ sciaddheat. html) on November 19, 2005. . Retrieved November 19,
2005.
[24] "Science: Another Ice Age?" (http:/ / www. time. com/ time/ magazine/ article/ 0,9171,944914,00. html). Time. June 24, 1974. .
[25] Peter Gwynne (April 28, 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek.
[26] Jerry Adler (October 23, 2006). "Remember Global Cooling?" (http:/ / www. newsweek. com/ id/ 72481). Newsweek. .
Global cooling 134
[27] Schneider, Stephen (December 29, 1977). "Against instant books" (http:/ / stephenschneider. stanford. edu/ Publications/ PDF_Papers/
Schneider1977. pdf). Nature 270 (22): 650. doi:10.1038/270650a0. .
[28] "World Climate Conference 1979" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ iceage/ wcc-1979. html). Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in
the '70s? No. . Retrieved November 17, 2005.
[29] Calvin, William H. (1998). "The great climate flip-flop" (http:/ / WilliamCalvin. com/ 1990s/ 1998AtlanticClimate. htm). The Atlantic
Monthly 281 (1): 47–64. .
[30] Schwartz, Peter; Randall, Doug (October 2003). An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National
Security (http:/ / www. grist. org/ pdf/ AbruptClimateChange2003. pdf). .
[31] Stripp, David (February 9, 2004). "The Pentagon's Weather Nightmare" (http:/ / money. cnn. com/ magazines/ fortune/ fortune_archive/
2004/ 02/ 09/ 360120/ index. htm). Fortune. .
[32] Townsend, Mark; Harris, Paul (2004-02-22). "Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/
environment/ 2004/ feb/ 22/ usnews. theobserver). The Observer (London). .
[33] Jungclaus, Johann H.; et al. (2006). "Will Greenland melting halt the thermohaline circulation?". Geophysical Research Letters 33: L17708.
doi:10.1029/2006GL026815.
[34] EPICA community members; Barbante, Carlo; Barnes, Piers R. F.; Marc Barnola, Jean; Bigler, Matthias; Castellano, Emiliano; Cattani,
Olivier; Chappellaz, Jerome et al. (June 10, 2004). "Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core". Nature 429 (6992): 623–8.
doi:10.1038/nature02599. PMID 15190344.
[35] Berger, A.; Loutre, M. F. (2002). "An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead?". Science 297 (5585): 1287–8. doi:10.1126/science.1076120.
PMID 12193773.
[36] Weart, Spencer. "Other Greenhouse Gases" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ othergas. htm). The Discovery of Global Warming. .
Retrieved November 17, 2005.
• Carslaw, K. S.. "The Climate Record: The Last Several Centuries and Last Several Decades. Is the Climate
Stable?" (http://www.env.leeds.ac.uk/envi2150/oldnotes/lecture7/lecture7.html). ENVI2150 Climate
Change: Scientific Issues. Retrieved November 17, 2005.
• unknown. "History of Continental Drift - Before Wegener" (http://www.bbm.me.uk/portsdown/
PH_061_History_a.htm). Retrieved November 17, 2005.
• http://tvnews.vanderbilt.edu/program.pl?ID=52903 Vanderbilt Television News Archive
External links
• Details historical presentation of Global Cooling in the popular media (http://www.businessandmedia.org/
specialreports/2006/fireandice/fireandice.asp)
• Discussion and quotes from various papers about the "1970s prediction of an imminent ice age" (http://www.
wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/)
• SCOPE 13 - The Global Carbon Cycle (http://www.icsu-scope.org/downloadpubs/scope13/foreword.html),
SCOPE, 1976.
• SCOPE 27 - Climate Impact Assessment (http://www.icsu-scope.org/downloadpubs/scope27/preface.html),
1984.
• "Another Ice Age?" (http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,944914,00.html). TIME. 1974-06-24.
• Chambers FM, Brain SA (2002). "Paradigm shifts in late-Holocene climatology?" (http://hol.sagepub.com/cgi/
content/abstract/12/2/239). The Holocene 12 (2): 239–249. doi:10.1191/0959683602hl540fa.
• http://www.saveportland.com/Climate/index.html - some newspaper scans
• http://www.climatemonitor.it/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/1974.pdf - CIA report from 1974
Atlantic multidecadal oscillation 135
Definition
The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) was identified by Schlesinger and Ramankutty in 1994.[1]
The AMO signal is usually defined from the patterns of SST variability in the North Atlantic once any linear trend
has been removed. This detrending is intended to remove the influence of greenhouse gas-induced global warming
from the analysis. However, if the global warming signal is significantly non-linear in time (i.e. not just a smooth
increase), variations in the forced signal will leak into the AMO definition. Consequently, correlations with the
AMO index may alias effects of global warming.
Mechanisms
In models, AMO-like variability is associated with small changes in the North Atlantic branch of the Thermohaline
Circulation, however historical oceanic observations are not sufficient to associate the derived AMO index to present
day circulation anomalies.
Florida rainfall
The AMO has a strong effect on Florida rainfall. Rainfall in central and south Florida becomes more plentiful when
the Atlantic is in its warm phase and droughts and wildfires are more frequent in the cool phase. As a result of these
variations, the inflow to Lake Okeechobee — the reservoir for South Florida’s water supply — changes by as much
as 40% between AMO extremes. In northern Florida the relationship begins to reverse — less rainfall when the
Atlantic is warm.
References
[1] Schlesinger, M. E. (1994). "An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65-70 years". Nature 367 (6465): 723–726.
Bibcode 1994Natur.367..723S. doi:10.1038/367723a0.
[2] "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Frequently Asked Questions about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation" (http:/ / www.
aoml. noaa. gov/ phod/ amo_faq. php).
[3] Zhang, R.; Delworth, T. L. (2006). "Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes". Geophys.
Res. Lett. 33: L17712. doi:10.1029/2006GL026267.
[4] Shanahan, T. M.; et al. (2009). "Atlantic Forcing of Persistent Drought in West Africa". Science 324 (5925): 377–380.
doi:10.1126/science.1166352. PMID 19372429.
[5] Chylek, P.; Lesins, G. (2008). "Multidecadal variability of Atlantic hurricane activity: 1851–2007". Journal of Geophysical Research 113:
D22106. doi:10.1029/2008JD010036
[6] Enfield, David B.; Cid-Serrano, Luis (2010). "Secular and multidecadal warmings in the North Atlantic and their relationships with major
hurricane activity". International Journal of Climatology 30 (2): 174–184. doi:10.1002/joc.1881
[7] http:/ / www. usclivar. org/ Newsletter/ Variations_V3N3/ Enfield. pdf
[8] For additional comments and citations see AMO, The Key Global Climate Indicator (http:/ / icecap. us/ images/ uploads/ amoarticlel. pdf).
[9] http:/ / www. aoml. noaa. gov/ phod/ d2m_shift/ index. php
[10] Curry, Judith A. (2008). "Potential Increased Hurricane Activity in a Greenhouse Warmed World". In MacCracken, Michael C.; Moore,
Frances; Topping, John C.. Sudden and disruptive climate change. London: Earthscan. pp. 29–38. ISBN 1844074781. "Assuming that the
AMO continues with a 70-year periodicity, the peak of the next cycle would be expected in 2020 (70 years after the previous 1950 peak)."
Further reading
• Andronova, N. G.; Schlesinger, M. E. (2000). "Causes of global temperature changes during the 19th and 20th
centuries" (http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2000/2000GL006109.shtml). Geophys. Res. Lett. 27:
2137–2140. doi:10.1029/2000GL006109.
• Delworth, T. L.; Mann, M. E. (2000). "Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern
Hemisphere". Climate Dynamics 16: 661–676. doi:10.1007/s003820000075.
• Enfield, D. B.; Mestas-Nunez, A. M.; Trimble, P. J. (2001). "The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its
relationship to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S." (http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2001/
2000GL012745.shtml). Geophys. Res. Lett. 28: 2077–2080. doi:10.1029/2000GL012745.
• Goldenberg, S. B.; et al. (2001). "The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications".
Science 293: 474–479. doi:10.1126/science.1060040. PMID 11463911.
• Gray, S. T.; et al. (2004). "A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567
A.D.". Geophys. Res. Lett. 31: L12205. doi:10.1029/2004GL019932.
• Hetzinger, Steffen; et al. (2008). "Caribbean coral tracks Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and past hurricane
activity". Geology 36 (1): 11–14. doi:10.1130/G24321A.1.
• Kerr, R. A. (2000). "A North Atlantic climate pacemaker for the centuries". Science 288 (5473): 1984–1986.
doi:10.1126/science.288.5473.1984. PMID 17835110.
• Kerr, R. A. (2005). "Atlantic climate pacemaker for millennia past, decades hence?". Science 309 (5731): 41–43.
doi:10.1126/science.309.5731.41.
• Knight, J. R. (2005). "A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate".
Geophys. Res. Lett. 32: L20708. doi:10.1029/2005GL024233.
• McCabe, G. J., G. J.; Palecki, M. A.; Betancourt, J. L. (2004). "Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on
multidecadal drought frequency in the United States". PNAS 101: 4136–4141. doi:10.1073/pnas.0306738101.
PMID 15016919.
• Sutton, R. T.; Hodson, L. R. (2005). "Atlantic forcing of North American and European summer climate". Science
309: 115–118. doi:10.1126/science.1109496. PMID 15994552.
• Knight, J. R.; C. K. Folland, and A. A. Scaife (2006). "Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation".
Geophys. Res. Lett. 33: L17706. doi:10.1029/2006GL026242.
• "Climate change: the next ten years" (http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19926691.
500-climate-change-the-next-ten-years.html) by Fred Pearce and Michael Le Page, New Scientist, 13 Aug. 2008,
Atlantic multidecadal oscillation 138
pp. 26–30.
External links
• Frequently asked questions about the AMO (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/amo_faq.php)
• Probabilistic projection of future AMO regime shifts (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/d2m_shift/index.
php)
• AMO Data from 1856 - Present (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/AMO/)
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a
quasiperiodic climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific
Ocean with on average five year intervals. It is characterized by
variations in the temperature of the surface of the tropical eastern
Pacific Ocean—warming or cooling known as El Niño and La
Niña respectively—and air surface pressure in the tropical western
Pacific—the Southern Oscillation. The two variations are coupled:
the warm oceanic phase, El Niño, accompanies high air surface
pressure in the western Pacific, while the cold phase, La Niña,
accompanies low air surface pressure in the western Pacific.[2] [3]
Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study.
Definition
El Niño is defined by prolonged differences in Pacific Ocean surface temperatures when compared with the average
value. The accepted definition is a warming or cooling of at least 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) averaged over the east-central
tropical Pacific Ocean. Typically, this anomaly happens at irregular intervals of 2–7 years and lasts nine months to
two years.[5] The average period length is 5 years. When this warming or cooling occurs for only seven to nine
months, it is classified as El Niño/La Niña "conditions"; when it occurs for more than that period, it is classified as
El Niño/La Niña "episodes".[6]
The first signs of an El Niño are:
1. Rise in surface pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia, and Australia
2. Fall in air pressure over Tahiti and the rest of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean
3. Trade winds in the south Pacific weaken or head east
4. Warm air rises near Peru, causing rain in the northern Peruvian deserts
5. Warm water spreads from the west Pacific and the Indian Ocean to the east Pacific. It takes the rain with it,
causing extensive drought in the western Pacific and rainfall in the normally dry eastern Pacific.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 139
El Niño's warm rush of nutrient-poor tropical water, heated by its eastward passage in the Equatorial Current,
replaces the cold, nutrient-rich surface water of the Humboldt Current. When El Niño conditions last for many
months, extensive ocean warming and the reduction in Easterly Trade winds limits upwelling of cold nutrient-rich
deep water and its economic impact to local fishing for an international market can be serious.[7]
Jacob Bjerknes in 1969 helped toward an 5-day running mean of MJO. Note how it moves eastward with time.
While not a direct cause of El Niño, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, propagates rainfall anomalies eastward
around the global tropics in a cycle of 30–60 days, and may influence the speed of development and intensity of El
Niño and La Niña in several ways.[14] For example, westerly flows between MJO-induced areas of low pressure may
cause cyclonic circulations north and south of the equator. When the circulations intensify, the westerly winds within
the equatorial Pacific can further increase and shift eastward, playing a role in El Niño development.[15]
Madden-Julian activity can also produce eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin waves, which may in turn be
influenced by a developing El Niño, leading to a positive feedback loop.[16]
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 140
Southern Oscillation
The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric
component of El Niño. This component is an
oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical
eastern and the western Pacific Ocean waters. The
strength of the Southern Oscillation is measured by
the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The SOI is
computed from fluctuations in the surface air pressure
difference between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia.[17]
El Niño episodes are associated with negative values
of the SOI, meaning that the pressure difference
between Tahiti and Darwin is relatively small.
Low atmospheric pressure tends to occur over warm Normal Pacific pattern. Equatorial winds gather warm water pool
toward west. Cold water upwells along South American coast. (NOAA
water and high pressure occurs over cold water, in
/ PMEL / TAO)
part because deep convection over the warm water
acts to transport air. El Niño episodes are defined as
sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This results in a decrease in the strength of the
Pacific trade winds, and a reduction in rainfall over eastern and northern Australia.
Walker circulation
During non-El Niño conditions, the Walker
circulation is seen at the surface as easterly trade
winds which move water and air warmed by the sun
towards the west. This also creates ocean upwelling
off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador and brings
nutrient-rich cold water to the surface, increasing
fishing stocks. The western side of the equatorial
Pacific is characterized by warm, wet low pressure
weather as the collected moisture is dumped in the
form of typhoons and thunderstorms. The ocean is
some 60 centimetres (24 in) higher in the western
Pacific as the result of this motion.[18] [19] [20] [21] El Niño Conditions. Warm water pool approaches South American
coast. Absence of cold upwelling increases warming.
South America
Because El Niño's warm pool feeds thunderstorms above, it creates increased rainfall across the east-central and
eastern Pacific Ocean including several portions of the South American west coast. The effects of El Niño in South
America are direct
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 141
The local fishing industry along the affected coastline can suffer during long-lasting El Niño events. The world's
largest fishery collapsed due to overfishing during the 1972 El Niño Peruvian anchoveta reduction. During the
1982–83 event, jack mackerel and anchoveta populations were reduced, scallops increased in warmer water, but
hake followed cooler water down the continental slope, while shrimp and sardines moved southward so some catches
decreased while others increased.[23] Horse mackerel have increased in the region during warm events. Shifting
locations and types of fish due to changing conditions provide challenges for fishing industries. Peruvian sardines
have moved during El Niño events to Chilean areas. Other conditions provide further complications, such as the
government of Chile in 1991 creating restrictions on the fishing areas for self-employed fishermen and industrial
fleets.
The ENSO variability may contribute to the great success of small fast-growing species along the Peruvian coast, as
periods of low population removes predators in the area. Similar effects benefit migratory birds that travel each
spring from predator-rich tropical areas to distant winter-stressed nesting areas.
Southern Brazil and northern Argentina also experience wetter than normal conditions but mainly during the spring
and early summer. Central Chile receives a mild winter with large rainfall, and the Peruvian-Bolivian Altiplano is
sometimes exposed to unusual winter snowfall events. Drier and hotter weather occurs in parts of the Amazon River
Basin, Colombia and Central America.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 142
North America
Winters, during the El Niño effect, are warmer and
drier than average in the Northwest, Northmidwest,
and Northmideast United States, and therefore those
regions experience reduced snowfalls. Meanwhile,
significantly wetter winters are present in northwest
Mexico and the southwest United States including
central and southern California, while both cooler and
wetter than average winters in northeast Mexico and
the southeast United States (including the Tidewater
region of Virginia) occur during the El Niño phase of
the oscillation.[24] [25]
Summers, during the El Niño effect, are wetter than average in the Northwest, Northmidwest, Northmideast, and
mountain regions of the United States.
El Niño is credited with suppressing hurricanes and made the 2009 hurricane season the least active in twelve
years.[28] El Niño is also associated with increased wave-caused coastal erosion along the United States Pacific
Coast.
There is some evidence that El Niño activity is correlated with incidence of red tides off the Pacific coast of
California.
Tropical cyclones
Most tropical cyclones form on the side of the subtropical ridge closer to the equator, then move poleward past the
ridge axis before recurving into the main belt of the Westerlies.[29] When the subtropical ridge position shifts due to
El Niño, so will the preferred tropical cyclone tracks. Areas west of Japan and Korea tend to experience much fewer
September–November tropical cyclone impacts during El Niño and neutral years. During El Niño years, the break in
the subtropical ridge tends to lie near 130°E, which would favor the Japanese archipelago.[30] During El Niño years,
Guam's chance of a tropical cyclone impact is one-third of the long term average.[31] The tropical Atlantic ocean
experiences depressed activity due to increased vertical wind shear across the region during El Niño years.[32]
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 143
Elsewhere
In Africa, East Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania and the White Nile basin experiences, in the long rains from
March to May, wetter than normal conditions. There are also drier than normal conditions from December to
February in south-central Africa, mainly in Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana. Direct effects of El
Niño resulting in drier conditions occur in parts of Southeast Asia and Northern Australia, increasing bush fires and
worsening haze and decreasing air quality dramatically. Drier than normal conditions are also generally observed in
Queensland, inland Victoria, inland New South Wales and eastern Tasmania from June to August. West of the
Antarctic Peninsula, the Ross, Bellingshausen, and Amundsen Sea sectors have more sea ice during El Niño. The
latter two and the Weddell Sea also become warmer and have higher atmospheric pressure. El Niño's effects on
Europe are not entirely clear, but certainly it is not nearly as affected as at least large parts of other continents. There
is some evidence that an El Niño may cause a wetter, cloudier winter in Northern Europe and a milder, drier winter
in the Mediterranean Sea region. The El Niño winter of 2006/2007 was unusually mild in Europe, and the Alps
recorded very little snow coverage that season.[33]
Most recently, Singapore experienced the driest February in 2010 since records begins in 1869. With only 6.3
millimetres of rain fell in the month and temperatures hitting as high as 35 degrees Celsius on 26 February. 1968 and
2005 had the next driest Februaries when 8.4 mm of rain fell.[34]
Africa Sea surface skin temperature anomalies in November 2007 showing La Niña
conditions
La Niña results in wetter than normal
conditions in Southern Africa from
December to February, and drier than normal conditions over equatorial East Africa over the same period.[36]
Asia
During La Niña years, the formation of tropical cyclones, along with the subtropical ridge position, shifts westward
across the western Pacific ocean, which increases the landfall threat to China.[30] In March 2008, La Niña caused a
drop in sea surface temperatures over Southeast Asia by an amount of 2 °C. It also caused heavy rains over
Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia.[37]
South America
During a time of La Niña, drought plagues the coastal regions of Peru and Chile.[38] From December to February,
northern Brazil is wetter than normal.[38]
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 144
North America
La Niña causes mostly the opposite effects of El Niño.
La Niña causes above average precipitation across the
North Midwest, the Northern Rockies, Northern
California, and in the Pacific Northwest's southern
and eastern regions. Meanwhile there is below
average precipitation in the southwestern and
southeastern states.[39]
Recent occurrences
There was a strong La Niña episode during Regional impacts of La Niña.
1988–1989. La Niña also formed in 1995, from
1998–2000, and a minor one from 2000–2001. Recently, an occurrence of El Niño started in September 2006[42] and
lasted until early 2007.[43] From June 2007 on, data indicated a moderate La Niña event, which strengthened in early
2008 and weakened by early 2009; the 2007–2008 La Niña event was the strongest since the 1988–1989 event. The
strength of the La Niña made the 2008 hurricane season one of the most active since 1944; there were 16 named
storms of at least 39 mph (63 km/h), eight of which became 74 mph (119 km/h) or greater hurricanes.[28]
According to NOAA, El Niño conditions were in place in the equatorial Pacific Ocean starting June 2009, peaking in
January–February. Positive SST anomalies (El Niño) lasted until May 2010. Since then, SST anomalies have been
negative (La Niña) and expected to stay negative for the next northern winter.[44]
References
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[48] Davis, Mike (2001). Late Victorian Holocausts: El Niño Famines and the Making of the Third World. London: Verso. pp. 271.
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[49] Trenberth, Kevin E.; Hoar, Timothy J. (January 1996). "The 1990-1995 El Niño-Southern Oscillation event: Longest on record".
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[50] Fedorov, Alexey V.; Philander, S. George (2000). "Is El Niño Changing?". Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 288 (5473): 1997–2002.
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[51] Zhang, Qiong; Guan, Yue; Yang, Haijun (2008). "ENSO Amplitude Change in Observation and Coupled Models". Advances in Atmospheric
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[52] Merryfield, William J. (2006). "Changes to ENSO under CO2 Doubling in a Multimodel Ensemble" (http:/ / www. ocgy. ubc. ca/ ~yzq/
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[54] Lenton, T. M.; Held, H.; Kriegler, E.; Hall, J. W.; Lucht, W.; Rahmstorf, S.; Schellnhuber, H. J. (Feb 2008). "Tipping elements in the Earth's
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[55] Kao, Hsun-Ying and Jin-Yi Yu (2009). "Contrasting Eastern-Pacific and Central-Pacific Types of ENSO" (http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/
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[56] Larkin, N. K.; Harrison, D. E. (2005). "On the definition of El Niño and associated seasonal average U.S. Weather anomalies". Geophysical
Research Letters 32 (13): L13705. Bibcode 2005GeoRL..3213705L. doi:10.1029/2005GL022738.
[57] Modoki: The [[Mimetic (http:/ / books. google. com. au/ books?id=CDwaTsno9IMC& lpg=PA254& ots=6fk0sRLZns& dq=Modoki
meaning OR pronunciation& pg=PA254#v=onepage& q=Modoki meaning OR pronunciation& f=false)] Tradition in Japan] (article by
Sakabe Magumi), p251- in Modern Japanese Aesthetics - A Reader, ed Michelle Marra, 1999, University of Hawaii Press
[58] Hye-Mi Kim, Peter J. Webster, & Judith A. Curry (2009). "Impact of Shifting Patterns of Pacific Ocean Warming on North Atlantic
Tropical Cyclones" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 325/ 5936/ 77). Science 335 (5936): 77–80.
doi:10.1126/science.1174062. PMID 19574388. .
[59] Yeh, Sang-Wook; Kug, Jong-Seong; Dewitte, Boris; Kwon, Min-Ho; Kirtman, Ben P.; Jin, Fei-Fei (September 2009). "El Niño in a
changing climate". Nature 461 (7263): 511–4. doi:10.1038/nature08316. PMID 19779449.
[60] Phillander, S. George (2004). Our affair with El Niño: how we transformed an enchanting Peruvian current into a global climate hazard.
Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-11335-1.
[61] CIT, JPL; Michael McPhaden. "NASA/NOAA Study Finds El Niños are Growing Stronger" (http:/ / www. jpl. nasa. gov/ news/ news.
cfm?release=2010-277& cid=release_2010-277& msource=nino20100825& tr=y& auid=6878202). National Aeronautics and Space
Administration. Pasadena, California: Jet Propulsion Laboratory. . Retrieved 27 August 2010.
[62] Staff, OurAmazingPlanet. "New Type of El Niño Emerges as Climate Changes" (http:/ / www. livescience. com/ environment/
el-nino-rising-ocean-temperatures-100830. html). Imaginova Corporation. LiveScience. . Retrieved 19 September 2010.
[63] "El Niño and its health impact" (http:/ / www. allcountries. org/ health/ el_nino_and_its_health_impact. html). Health Topics A to Z. .
Retrieved 2011-01-01..
[64] Carrè, Matthieu; et al. (2005). "Strong El Niño events during the early Holocene: stable isotope evidence from Peruvian sea shells". The
Holocene 15 (1): 42–7. doi:10.1191/0959683605h1782rp.
[65] "El Nino here to stay" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 25433. stm). BBC News. . Retrieved 2010-05-01.
[66] Brian Fagan (1999). Floods, Famines and Emporers: El Niño and the Fate of Civilizations. Basic Books. pp. 119–138.
ISBN 0-465-01120-9.
[67] Grove, Richard H. (1998). "Global Impact of the 1789–93 El Niño". Nature 393 (6683): 318–9. doi:10.1038/30636.
[68] " Ó Gráda, C.: Famine: A Short History (http:/ / press. princeton. edu/ chapters/ s8857. html)". Princeton University Press.
[69] Trenberth, Kevin E.; Hoar, Timothy J. (1996). "The 1990-1995 El Niño-Southern Oscillation Event: Longest on Record" (http:/ / www. agu.
org/ pubs/ crossref/ 1996/ 95GL03602. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1): 57–60. Bibcode 1996GeoRL..23...57T.
doi:10.1029/95GL03602. .
[70] Trenberth, K. E.; et al. (2002). "Evolution of El Niño – Southern Oscillation and global atmospheric surface temperatures". Journal of
Geophysical Research 107 (D8): 4065. Bibcode 2002JGRD..107.4065T. doi:10.1029/2000JD000298.
[71] Marshall, Paul; Schuttenberg, Heidi (2006). A reef manager's guide to coral bleaching (http:/ / coris. noaa. gov/ activities/
reef_managers_guide/ pdfs/ reef_managers_guide. pdf). Townsville, Qld.: Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority. ISBN 1876945400. .
Further reading
• Caviedes, César N. (2001). El Niño in History: Storming Through the Ages. Gainesville: University of Florida
Press. ISBN 0813020999.
• Fagan, Brian M. (1999). Floods, Famines, and Emperors: El Niño and the Fate of Civilizations. New York: Basic
Books. ISBN 0712664785.
• Glantz, Michael H. (2001). Currents of change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 052178672X.
• Philander, S. George (1990). El Niño, La Niña and the Southern Oscillation. San Diego: Academic Press.
ISBN 0125532350.
• Trenberth, Kevin E. (1997). "The definition of El Niño" (http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/
?request=res-loc&uri=urn:ap:pdf:doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2) (pdf). Bulletin
of the American Meteorological Scociety 78 (12): 2771–7.
doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2. ISSN 1520-0477.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation 150
External links
• Latest ENSO updates & predictions from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (http://iri.
columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/QuickLook.html)
• PO.DAAC's El Niño Animations (http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/el-nino/index.html)
• National Academy of Sciences El Niño/La Niña article (http://www7.nationalacademies.org/opus/elnino.
html)
• NOAA FAQ "What is ENSO?" (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/
ensofaq.shtml#ENSO)
• Latest El Niño/La Niña Data from NASA (http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/jason1-quick-look/)
• Economic Costs of El Niño / La Niña and Economic Benefits from Improved Forecasting (http://www.ncdc.
noaa.gov/oa/esb/?goal=climate&file=events/enso/) from "NOAA Socioeconomics" website initiative
• El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (http://www.linkingweatherandclimate.com/ENSO/)
• El Niño and La Niña from the 1999 International Red Cross World Disasters Report (http://www.ericjlyman.
com/elnino.html) by Eric J. Lyman.
• ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.
shtml)
• La Niña episodes in the Tropical Pacific (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/
lanina/cold_impacts.shtml)
• NOAA announces 2004 El Niño (http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2317.htm)
• NOAA El Niño Page (http://www.elnino.noaa.gov)
• Ocean Motion: El Niño (http://www.oceanmotion.org/html/impact/el-nino.htm)
• SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) (http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/glossary/soid.htm)
• The Climate of Peru (http://www.limaperunet.com/climate/climateall.html)
• What is El Niño? (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/el-nino-story.html)
• What is La Niña? (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/la-nina-story.html)
• El-Nino, La-Nina, Southern Oscillation, ENSO (http://www.sbg.ac.at/ipk/avstudio/pierofun/atmo/elnino.
htm)
• Kelvin Wave Renews El Niño - NASA, Earth Observatory image of the day, 2010, March 21 (http://
earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=43105)
• Animation of ENSO in Victoria, Australia (http://www.new.dpi.vic.gov.au/agriculture/
environment-and-community/climate/understanding-weather-and-climate/climatedogs/enso)
Indian Ocean Dipole 151
The phenomenon
The IOD involves an aperiodic oscillation of sea-surface temperatures,
between "positive", "neutral" and "negative" phases. A positive phase
Water temperatures around the Mentawai Islands
sees greater-than-average sea-surface temperatures and greater dropped about 4° Celsius during the height of the
precipitation in the western Indian Ocean region, with a corresponding Indian Ocean Dipole in November of 1997.
cooling of waters in the eastern Indian Ocean—which tends to cause During these events unusually strong winds from
the east push warm surface water towards Africa,
droughts in adjacent land areas of Indonesia and Australia. The
allowing cold water to upwell along the Sumatran
negative phase of the IOD brings about the opposite conditions, with coast. In this image blue areas are colder than
warmer water and greater precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean, normal, while red areas are warmer than normal.
and cooler and drier conditions in the west.
The IOD also affects the strength of monsoons over the Indian subcontinent. A significant positive IOD occurred in
1997-8, with another in 2006. The IOD is one aspect of the general cycle of global climate, interacting with similar
phenomena like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean.
The IOD phenomenon was first identified by climate researchers in 1999. Yet evidence from fossil coral reefs
demonstrates that the IOD has functioned since at least the middle of the Holocene period, 6500 years ago.
An average of four each positive/negative IOD events occur during each 30 year period with each event lasting
around six months. However, there have been 12 positive IODs since 1980 and no negative events since 1992. The
occurrence of consecutive positive IOD events are extremely rare with only two such events recorded, 1913–1914
and the three consecutive events from 2006-2008 which preceded the Black Saturday bushfires. Modelling indicates
that consecutive positive events occur twice over a 1,000 year period. The positive IOD in 2007 evolved together
with La Niña which is a very rare phenomenon that has happened only once in the available historical records (in
1967).[1] [2] [3] [4]
Further reading
• Abram, Nerilie J.; et al. (2007). "Seasonal characteristics of the Indian Ocean dipole during the Holocene epoch".
Nature 445 (7125): 299–302. doi:10.1038/nature05477. PMID 17230187.
• Ashok, Karumuri; Guan, Zhaoyong; Yamagata, Toshio (2001). "Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the
Relationship between the Indian Monsoon Rainfall and ENSO". Geophysical Research Letters 28 (23):
4499–4502. Bibcode 2001GeoRL..28.4499A. doi:10.1029/2001GL013294.
• Li, Tim; et al. (2003). "A Theory for the Indian Ocean Dipole–Zonal Mode". Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
60 (17): 2119–2135. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<2119:ATFTIO>2.0.CO;2.
• Rao, S. A.; et al. (2002). "Interannual variability in the subsurface Indian Ocean with special emphasis on the
Indian Ocean Dipole". Deep Sea Research-II 49 (7–8): 1549–1572. doi:10.1016/S0967-0645(01)00158-8.
• Saji, N. H.; et al. (1999). "A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean". Nature 401 (6751): 360–363.
doi:10.1038/43854. PMID 16862108.
• Behera, S. K.; et al. (2008). "Unusual IOD event of 2007". Geophysical Research Letters 35: L14S11.
Bibcode 2008GeoRL..3514S11B. doi:10.1029/2008GL034122.
References
[1] "Argo profiles a rare occurrence of three consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, 2006–2008" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/
crossref/ 2009/ 2008GL037038. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters. April 16, 2009. . Retrieved December 22, 2009.
[2] Cooper, Dani (March 25, 2009). "Bushfire origins lie in Indian Ocean" (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ science/ articles/ 2009/ 03/ 25/ 2525580.
htm). Australian Broadcasting Corporation. . Retrieved December 22, 2009.
[3] Perry, Michael (February 5, 2009). "Indian Ocean linked to Australian droughts" (http:/ / www. reuters. com/ article/
idUSTRE5133FL20090205). Reuters. . Retrieved December 22, 2009.
[4] Rosebro, Jack (February 12, 2009). "Australi Reels From Split Weather System" (http:/ / www. greencarcongress. com/ 2009/ 02/
australia-reels/ comments/ page/ 2/ ). Green Car Congress. . Retrieved December 22, 2009.
[5] Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; et al. (February 2009). "What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts?" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/
crossref/ 2009/ 2008GL036801. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 36 (L04706). doi:10.1029//2008GL036801. .
[6] Swadhin K. Behera and Toshio Yamagata (2003). Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Southern Oscillation. Journal of the
Meteorological Society of Japan. (http:/ / www. jstage. jst. go. jp/ article/ jmsj/ 81/ 1/ 81_169/ ) 37, 169--177
[7] H. Annamalai, S.-P. Xie, J.-P. McCreary and R Murtugudde (2005). Impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature on developing El Niño.
Journal of Climatology. 18, 302-319 (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ JCLI-3268. 1)
[8] Takeshi Izumo, Jérôme Vialard, Matthieu Lengaigne, Clément de Boyer Montegut, Swadhin K. Behera, Jing-Jia Luo, Sophie Cravatte,
Sébastien Masson and Toshio Yamagata (2010). Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the following year’s El Niño. Nature
Geoscience. 3, 168-172, DOI: 10.1038/NGEO760
External links
• IOD home page. (http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/)
• IOD, monsoons, and ENSO. (http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/jp/press/yamagata/011129/eng/index_e.
html)
• Indian Ocean causes Big Dry: drought mystery solved. (http://www.science.unsw.edu.au/news/
indian-ocean-drought)
• Animation of Indian Ocean Dipole in Victoria, Australia (http://www.new.dpi.vic.gov.au/agriculture/
environment-and-community/climate/understanding-weather-and-climate/climatedogs/indy)
Pacific decadal oscillation 153
Mechanisms
Several studies have indicated that the PDO index can be reconstructed as the superimposition of tropical forcing and
extra-tropical processes.[2] [4] [5] [6] Thus, unlike ENSO, the PDO is not a single physical mode of ocean variability,
but rather the sum of several processes with different dynamical origins.
At inter-annual time scales the PDO index is reconstructed as the sum of random and ENSO induced variability in
the Aleutian low, on decadal timescales ENSO teleconnections, stochastic atmospheric forcing and changes in the
North Pacific oceanic gyre circulation contribute approximately equally, additionally sea surface temperature
anomalies have some winter to winter persistence due to the reemergence mechanism.
ENSO teleconnections, the atmospheric bridge[7]
ENSO can influence the global circulation pattern
thousands of kilometers away from the equatorial
Pacific through the "atmospheric bridge". During el
nino events deep convection and heat transfer to the
troposphere is enhanced over the anomalously warm
sea surface temperature, this ENSO related tropical
forcing generates Rossby waves that propagates
poleward and eastward and are subsequently refracted
back from the pole to the tropics. The planetary waves The atmospheric bridge during el nino
forms at preferred locations both in the North and
Pacific decadal oscillation 154
South Pacific Ocean and the teleconnection pattern is established within 2–6 weeks.[8] ENSO driven patterns modify
surface temperature,humidity, wind and the distribution of cloud over the North Pacific that alter surface heat,
momentum and freshwater fluxes and thus induce sea surface temperature,salinity and mixed layer depth (MLD)
anomalies.
The atmospheric bridge is more effective during boreal winter when the deepened Aleutian low results in stronger
and cold northwesterly winds over the central Pacific and warm/humid southerly winds along the North American
west coast, the associated changes in the surface heat fluxes and to a lesser extent Ekman transport creates negative
sea surface temperature anomalies and a deepened MLD in the central pacific and warm the ocean from the Hawaii
to the Bering Sea.
SST reemergence[9]
Midlatitude SST anomaly patterns tend to recur from one winter to the next but not during the intervening summer,
this process occurs because of the strong mixed layer seasonal cycle. The mixed layer depth over the North Pacific is
deeper, typically 100-200m, in winter than it is in summer and thus SST anomalies that forms during winter and
extend to the base of the mixed layer are sequestered beneath the shallow summer mixed layer when it reforms in
late spring and are effectively insulated from the air-sea heat flux. When the mixed layer deepens again in the
following autumn/early winter the anomalies may influence again the surface. This process has been named
"reemergence mechanism" by Alexander and Deser[10] and is observed over much of the North Pacific Ocean
although is more effective in the west where the winter mixed layer is deeper and the seasonal cycle greater.
Stochastic atmospheric forcing[11]
Long term sea surface temperature variation may be induced by random atmospheric forcings that are integrated and
reddened into the ocean mixed layer. The stochastic climate model paradigm was proposed by Frankignoul and
Hasselmann,[12] in this model a stochastic forcing represented by the passage of storms alter the ocean mixed layer
temperature via surface energy fluxes and Ekman currents and the system is damped due to the enhanced (reduced)
heat loss to the atmosphere over the anomalously warm (cold) SST via turbulent energy and longwave radiative
fluxes, in the simple case of a linear negative feedback the model can be written as:
where v is the random atmospheric forcing, λ is the damping rate (positive and constant) and y is the response.
The variance spectrum of y is:
Pacific decadal oscillation 155
where F is the variance of the white noise forcing and w is the frequency, an implication of this equation is that at
short time scales (w>>λ) the variance of the ocean temperature increase with the square of the period while at longer
timescales(w<<λ, ~150 months) the damping process dominates and limits sea surface temperature anomalies so that
the spectra became white.
Thus an atmospheric white noise generates SST anomalies at much longer timescales but without spectral peaks.
Modeling studies suggest that this process contribute to as much as 1/3 of the PDO variability at decadal timescales.
Ocean dynamics
Several dynamic oceanic mechanisms and SST-air feedback may contribute to the observed decadal variability in the
North Pacific Ocean. SST variability is stronger in the Kuroshio Oyashio extension (KOE) region and is associated
with changes in the KOE axis and strength,[6] that generates decadal and longer time scales SST variance but without
the observed magnitude of the spectral peak at ~10 years, and SST-air feedback. Remote reemergence occurs in
regions of strong current such as the Kuroshio extension and the anomalies created near the Japan may reemerge the
next winter in the central pacific.
• Advective resonance
Saravanan and McWilliams[13] have demonstrated that the interaction between spatially coherent atmospheric
forcing patterns and an advective ocean shows periodicities at preferred time scales when non-local advective effects
dominates over the local sea surface temperature damping. This "advective resonance" mechanism may generate
decadal SST variability in the Eastern North Pacific associated with the anomalous Ekman advection and surface
heat flux.[14]
• North Pacific oceanic gyre circulation
Dynamic gyre adjustments are essential to generate decadal SST peaks in the North Pacific, the process occurs via
westward propagating oceanic Rossby waves that are forced by wind anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific
Ocean. The quasigeostrophic equation for long non-dispersive Rossby Waves forced by large scale wind stress can
be written as:[15]
where h is the upper-layer thickness anomaly, curl(τ) is the wind stress, c is the Rossby waves speed that depends on
latitudes, ρ0 is the density of sea water and f0 is the Coriolis parameter at a reference latitude. The response time
scale is set by the Rossby waves speed, the location of the wind forcing and the basin width, at the latitude of the
Kuroshio Extension c is 2.5 cm s−1 and the dynamic gyre adjustement timescale is ~(5)10 years if the Rossby wave
was initiated in the (central)eastern Pacific Ocean.
If the wind white forcing is zonally uniform it should generate a red spectrum in which h variance increase with the
period and reaches a constant amplitude at lower frequencies without decadal and interdecadal peaks, however low
frequencies atmospheric circulation tends to be dominated by fixed spatial patterns so that wind forcing is not
zonally uniform, if the wind forcing is zonally sinusoidal then decadal peaks occurs due to resonance of the forced
basin-scale Rossby waves.
The propagation of h anomalies in the western pacific changes the KOE axis and strength[6] and impact sst due to the
anomalous geostrophic heat transport. Recent studies[6] [16] suggest that Rossby waves excited by the Aleutian low
propagates the PDO signal from the North Pacific to the KOE through changes in the KOE axis while Rossby waves
associated with the NPO propagates the NPGO signal through changes in the KOE strength.
Pacific decadal oscillation 156
The PDO index has been reconstructed using tree rings and other hydrologically sensitive proxies from west North
America and Asia.[3] [17] [18]
MacDonald and Case[19] reconstructed the PDO back to 993 using tree rings from California and Alberta. The index
shows a 50-70 year periodicity but this is a strong mode of variability only after 1800, a persistent negative phase
occurred during medieval times (993-1300) which is consistent with la nina conditions reconstructed in the tropical
Pacific[20] and multi-century droughts in the South-West United States.[21]
Several regime shifts are apparent both in the reconstructions and instrumental data, during the 20th century regime
shifts associated with concurrent changes in SST, SLP, land precipitation and ocean cloud cover occurred in
1924/1925,1945/1946 and 1976/1977:[22]
• 1750: PDO displays an unusually strong oscillation.[3]
• 1924/1925: PDO changed to a "warm" phase.[22]
• 1945/1946: The PDO changed to a "cool" phase, the pattern of this regime shift is similar to the 1970s episode
with maximum amplitude in the subarctic and subtropical front but with a greater signature near the Japan while
the 1970s shift was stronger near the American west coast.[22] [23]
• 1976/1977: PDO changed to a "warm" phase.[24]
• 1988/1989:A weakening of the Aleutian low with associated SST changes was observed,[25] in contrast to others
regime shifts this change appears to be related to concurrent extratropical oscillation in the North Pacific and
North Atlantic rather than tropical processes.[26]
• 1997/1998: Several changes in Sea surface temperature and marine ecosystem occurred in the North Pacific after
1997/1998, in contrast to prevailing anomalies observed after the 1970s shift SST declined along the United
States west coast and substantial changes in the populations of salmon, anchovy and sardine were observed,[27]
however the spatial pattern of the SST change was different with a meridional SST seesaw in the central and
western Pacific that resemble a strong shift in the NPGO rather than the PDO structure, this pattern dominated
much of the North Pacific SST variability after 1989.[28]
Pacific decadal oscillation 157
Predictability
NOAA's forecast [29] use a linear inverse modeling (LIM)[30] method to predict the PDO, LIM assumes that the
PDO can be separated into a linear deterministic component and a non-linear component represented by random
fluctuations.
Much of the LIM PDO predictability arises from ENSO and the global trend rather than extra-tropical processes and
is thus limited to ~4 season, the prediction is consistent with the seasonal footprinting mechanism[31] in which an
optimal SST structure evolve into the ENSO mature phase 6–10 months later that subsequently impact the North
Pacific Ocean SST via the atmospheric bridge.
Skills in predicting decadal PDO variability could arise from taking into account the impact of the externally
forced[32] and internally generated[33] pacific variability.
Related patterns
• ENSO tends to lead PDO/IPO cycling.
• Shifts in the IPO change the location and strength of ENSO activity. The South Pacific Convergence Zone moves
northeast during El Niño and southwest during La Niña events. The same movement takes place during positive
IPO and negative IPO phases respectively. (Folland et al., 2002)
• Interdecadal temperature variations in China are closely related to those of the NAO and the NPO.
• The amplitudes of the NAO and NPO increased in the 1960s and interannual variation patterns changed from 3–4
years to 8–15 years.
• Sea level rise is affected when large areas of water warm and expand, or cool and contract.
References
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[14] Wu, Lixin; Zhengyu Liu (2003). "Decadal Variability in the North Pacific: The Eastern North Pacific Mode" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/
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[16] Ceballos, Lina; Emanuele Di Lorenzo; Carlos D. Hoyos; Niklas Schneider; Bunmei Taguchi (2009). "North Pacific Gyre Oscillation
Synchronizes Climate Fluctuations in the Eastern and Western Boundary Systems" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ full/ 10. 1175/
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[17] Shen, Caiming; Wei-Chyung Wang; Wei Gong; Zhixin Hao (2006). "A Pacific Decadal Oscillation record since 1470 AD reconstructed
from proxy data of summer rainfall over eastern China" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ ABS/ 2006/ 2005GL024804. shtml). Geophys. Res.
Lett. 33. Bibcode 2006GeoRL..3303702S. doi:10.1029/2005GL024804. . Retrieved 2010-10-26.
[18] D'arrigo, R.; Wilson R. (2006). "On the Asian Expression of the PDO." (http:/ / onlinelibrary. wiley. com/ doi/ 10. 1002/ joc. 1326/ abstract).
International Journal of Climatology 26: 1607–1617. doi:10.1002/joc.1326. . Retrieved 2010-10-26.
[19] MacDonald, G.M.; Case R.A. (2005). "Variations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over the past millennium" (http:/ / www. agu. org/
journals/ ABS/ 2005/ 2005GL022478. shtml). Geophys. Res. Lett. 32. Bibcode 2005GeoRL..3208703M. doi:10.1029/2005GL022478. .
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[20] Rein, Bert; Andreas Lückge; Frank Sirocko (2004). "AA major Holocene ENSO anomaly during the Medieval period" (http:/ / www. agu.
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[21] Seager, Richard; Graham, Nicholas; Herweijer, Celine; Gordon, Arnold L.; Kushnir, Yochanan; Cook, Ed (2007). "Blueprints for Medieval
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[22] Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S.; Hurrell, James W. (2004). "Pacific Interdecadal Climate Variability: Linkages between the Tropics and the
North Pacific during Boreal Winter since 1900." (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0442(2004)017<3109:PICVLB>2. 0.
CO;2). Journal of Climate 17 (15): 3109–3124. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3109:PICVLB>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-10-26.
[23] Minobe, Shoshiro; Atsushi Maeda (2005). "A 1° monthly gridded sea-surface temperature dataset compiled from ICOADS from 1850 to
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[26] Yasunaka, Sayaka; Kimio Hanawa (2003). "Regime Shifts in the Northern Hemisphere SST Field: Revisited in Relation to Tropical
Variations" (http:/ / www. jstage. jst. go. jp/ article/ jmsj/ 81/ 2/ 81_415/ _article/ -char/ en). Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 81
(2): 415–424. doi:10.2151/jmsj.81.415. . Retrieved 2010-10-26.
[27] Chavez, Francisco P; John Ryan, Salvador E. Lluch-Cota, Miguel Ñiquen C. (2003). "From Anchovies to Sardines and Back: Multidecadal
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[28] Bond, N.A.; J. E. Overland; M. Spillane; P. Stabeno (2003). "Recent shifts in the state of the North Pacific" (http:/ / europa. agu. org/ ?uri=/
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[29] http:/ / www. esrl. noaa. gov/ psd/ forecasts/ sstlim/ for1pdo. html
[30] Alexander, Michael A.; Ludmila Matrosova; Cécile Penland; James D. Scott; Ping Chang (2008). "Forecasting Pacific SSTs: Linear Inverse
Model Predictions of the PDO" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 2007JCLI1849. 1). Journal of Climate 21 (2): 385–402.
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[31] Vimont, Daniel J.; John M. Wallace; David S. Battisti (2003). "The Seasonal Footprinting Mechanism in the Pacific: Implications for
ENSO" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0442(2003)016<2668:TSFMIT>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Climate 16 (16):
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Pacific decadal oscillation 159
[32] Meehl, Gerard A.; Aixue Hu; Benjamin D. Santer (2009). "The Mid-1970s Climate Shift in the Pacific and the Relative Roles of Forced
versus Inherent Decadal Variability" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 2008JCLI2552. 1). Journal of Climate 22 (3):
780–792. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2552.1. . Retrieved 2010-10-08.
[33] Mochizuki, Takashi; Masayoshi Ishii; Masahide Kimoto; Yoshimitsu Chikamotoc; Masahiro Watanabec; Toru Nozawad; Takashi T.
Sakamotoa; Hideo Shiogamad; Toshiyuki Awajia; Nozomi Sugiuraa; Takahiro Toyodaa; Sayaka Yasunakac; Hiroaki Tatebea; Masato Moric
(2010). "Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ content/ 107/ 5/ 1833. full).
PNAS 107 (5): 1833–1837. doi:10.1073/pnas.0906531107. . Retrieved 2010-10-08.
Further reading
• LI Chongyin, HE Jinhai, ZHU Jinhong (2004). "A Review of Decadal/Interdecadal Climate Variation Studies in
China". Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 21 (3): 425–436. doi:10.1007/BF02915569.
• C. K. Folland, J. A. Renwick, M. J. Salinger, A. B. Mullan (2002). "Relative influences of the Interdecadal
Pacific Oscillation and ENSO in the South Pacific Convergence Zone" (http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/
2002/2001GL014201.shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 29 (13): 21–1–21–4.
Bibcode 2002GeoRL..29m..21F. doi:10.1029/2001GL014201.
• Steven R. Hare and Nathan J. Mantua, 2001. An historical narrative on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation,
interdecadal climate variability and ecosystem impacts, Report of a talk presented at the 20th NE Pacific Pink and
Chum workshop, Seattle, WA, 22 March 2001. (http://www.iphc.washington.edu/Staff/hare/html/papers/
pcworkshop/pcworkshop.pdf)
• Nathan J. Mantua and Steven R. Hare, 2002. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Journal of Oceanography, Vol. 58,
p. 35–44. doi:10.1023/A:1015820616384 (http://jisao.washington.edu/PNWimpacts/Publications/Pub166.
pdf)
• Kevin Ho, 2005. Salmon-omics: Effect of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on Alaskan Chinook Harvests and Market
Price. Columbia University. (http://www.columbia.edu/~kjh2103/Salmon-omics-PDO.pdf)
External links
• "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)" (http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/). JISAO. Retrieved
February 13, 2005.
• "Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)" (http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/pdo.html). JPL SCIENCE - PDO.
Retrieved February 13, 2005.
Milankovitch cycles 160
Milankovitch cycles
Milankovitch Theory describes the collective effects of changes
in the Earth's movements upon its climate, named after Serbian
civil engineer and mathematician Milutin Milanković, who
worked on it during First World War internment. Milanković
mathematically theorised that variations in eccentricity, axial tilt,
and precession of the Earth's orbit determined climatic patterns on
Earth.
Earth’s movements
As the Earth spins around its axis and orbits around the Sun, several quasi-periodic variations occur. Although the
curves have a large number of sinusoidal components, a few components are dominant.[2] Milankovitch studied
changes in the orbital eccentricity, obliquity, and precession of Earth's movements. Such changes in movement and
orientation change the amount and location of solar radiation reaching the Earth. This is known as solar forcing (an
example of radiative forcing). Changes near the north polar area, about 65 degrees North, are considered important
due to the great amount of land, which reacts to such changes quicker than the oceans do. Land masses respond to
temperature change more quickly than oceans which self cool by mixing of surface and deep water, the movement of
cool and warm currents and suface evaporation, and the fact that the specific heat of solids is generally lower than
that of water (i.e., it takes a smaller change in the amount of heat a given mass of a solid contains to change its
temperature by the same number of degrees than it would take to change the same mass of water's temperature by the
same number of degrees.)
Milankovitch cycles 161
The Earth's orbit is an ellipse. The eccentricity is a measure of the departure of this ellipse from circularity. The
shape of the Earth's orbit varies in time between nearly circular (low eccentricity of 0.005) and mildly elliptical (high
eccentricity of 0.058) with the mean eccentricity of 0.028. The major component of these variations occurs on a
period of 413,000 years (eccentricity variation of ±0.012). A number of other terms vary between components
95,000 and 125,000 years (with a beat period 400,000 years), and loosely combine into a 100,000-year cycle
(variation of −0.03 to +0.02). The present eccentricity is 0.017.
If the Earth were the only planet orbiting our Sun, the eccentricity of its orbit would not perceptibly vary even over a
period of a million years. The Earth's eccentricity varies primarily due to interactions with the gravitational fields of
Jupiter and Saturn. As the eccentricity of the orbit evolves, the semi-major axis of the orbital ellipse remains
unchanged. From the perspective of the perturbation theory used in celestial mechanics to compute the evolution of
the orbit, the semi-major axis is an adiabatic invariant. According to Kepler's third law the period of the orbit is
determined by the semi-major axis. It follows that the Earth's orbital period, the length of a sidereal year, also
remains unchanged as the orbit evolves. As the semi-minor axis is decreased with the eccentricity increase, the
seasonal changes increase.[3] But the mean solar irradiation for the planet changes only slightly for small
eccentricity, due to Kepler's second law.
The same average irradiation does not correspond to the average of corresponding temperatures (due to non-linearity
of the Stefan–Boltzmann law). For an irradiation with corresponding temperature 20°C and its symmetric variation
±50% (e.g. from the seasons change[4] ) we obtain asymmetric variation of corresponding temperatures with their
average 16°C (i.e. deviation −4°C). And for the irradiation variation during a day (with its average corresponding
also to 20°C) we obtain the average temperature (for zero thermal capacity) -113°C.
The relative increase in solar irradiation at closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) compared to the irradiation at the
furthest distance (aphelion) is slightly larger than 4 times the eccentricity. For the current orbital eccentricity this
amounts to a variation in incoming solar radiation of about 6.8%, while the current difference between perihelion
and aphelion is only 3.4% (5.1 million km). Perihelion presently occurs around January 3, while aphelion is around
July 4. When the orbit is at its most elliptical, the amount of solar radiation at perihelion will be about 23% more
than at aphelion.
Milankovitch cycles 162
Orbital mechanics requires that the length of the seasons be proportional to the areas of the seasonal quadrants, so
when the eccentricity is extreme, the seasons on the far side of the orbit can be substantially longer in duration.
When autumn and winter occur at closest approach, as is the case currently in the northern hemisphere, the earth is
moving at its maximum velocity and therefore autumn and winter are slightly shorter than spring and summer. Thus,
summer in the northern hemisphere is 4.66 days longer than winter and spring is 2.9 days longer than autumn.
But these changes of opposite sign in the summer and winter are not of
the same magnitude. The annual mean insolation increases in high
latitudes with increasing obliquity, while lower latitudes experience a
reduction in insolation. Cooler summers are suspected of encouraging
22.1-24.5° range of Earth's obliquity.
the start of an ice age by melting less of the previous winter's ice and
snow. So can it be argued that lower obliquity favors ice ages both
because of the mean insolation reduction in high latitudes as well as the additional reduction in summer insolation.
However no significant climate changes are associated with extreme axial tilts.
Scientists using computer models to study more extreme tilts than those that actually occur have concluded that
climate extremes at high obliquity would be particularly threatening to advanced forms of life that presently exist on
Earth. They noted that high obliquity would not likely sterilize a planet completely, but would make it harder for
fragile, warm-blooded land-based life to thrive as it does today.[6]
Currently the Earth is tilted at 23.44 degrees from its orbital plane, roughly halfway between its extreme values. The
tilt is in the decreasing phase of its cycle, and will reach its minimum value around the year 10,000 CE. This trend,
by itself, would tend to make winters warmer and summers colder; however increases in greenhouse gases may
Milankovitch cycles 163
Axial precession
Precession is the trend in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation
relative to the fixed stars, with a period of roughly 26,000 years. This
gyroscopic motion is due to the tidal forces exerted by the sun and the
moon on the solid Earth, which has the shape of an oblate spheroid
rather than a sphere. The sun and moon contribute roughly equally to
this effect.
When the axis points toward the Sun in perihelion, one polar
hemisphere has a greater difference between the seasons while the
other has milder seasons. The hemisphere that is in summer at
perihelion receives much of the corresponding increase in solar
radiation, but that same hemisphere in winter at aphelion has a colder
winter. The other hemisphere will have a relatively warmer winter and
cooler summer.
Precessional movement.
When the Earth's axis is aligned such that aphelion and perihelion
occur near the equinoxes, the Northern and Southern Hemispheres will have similar contrasts in the seasons.
At present, perihelion occurs during the southern hemisphere's summer, and aphelion is reached during the southern
winter. Thus the southern hemisphere seasons are somewhat more extreme than the northern hemisphere seasons,
when other factors are equal.
Apsidal precession
In addition, the orbital ellipse itself
precesses in space, primarily as a result of
interactions with Jupiter and Saturn. This
orbital precession is in the same sense to the
gyroscopic motion of the axis of rotation,
shortening the period of the precession of
the equinoxes with respect to the perihelion
from 25,771.5 to ~21,636 years.
Orbital inclination
The inclination of Earth's orbit drifts up and
down relative to its present orbit with a
cycle having a period of about 70,000 years.
Milankovitch did not study this
three-dimensional movement. This
movement is known as "precession of the
Planets orbiting the Sun follow elliptical (oval) orbits that rotate gradually over
ecliptic" or "planetary precession".
time (apsidal precession). The eccentricity of this ellipse is exaggerated for
visualization. Most orbits in the Solar System have a much smaller eccentricity,
making them nearly circular.
Milankovitch cycles 164
A study of the chronology of Antarctic ice cores using oxygen-nitrogen ratios in air bubbles trapped in the ice, which
appear to respond directly to the local insolation, concluded that the climatic response documented in the ice cores
was driven by northern hemisphere insolation as proposed by the Milankovitch hypothesis (Kawamura et al., Nature,
23 August 2007, vol 448, p912-917). This is an additional validation of the Milankovitch hypothesis by a relatively
novel method, and is inconsistent with the "inclination" theory of the 100,000-year cycle.
Problems
Because the observed periodicities of climate fit so well with the orbital periods, the orbital theory has overwhelming
support. Nonetheless, there are several difficulties in reconciling theory with observations.
100,000-year problem
The 100,000-year problem is that the eccentricity
variations have a significantly smaller impact on solar
forcing than precession or obliquity and hence might be
expected to produce the weakest effects. However,
observations show that during the last 1 million years, the
strongest climate signal is the 100,000-year cycle. In
addition, despite the relatively great 100,000-year cycle,
some have argued that the length of the climate record is
insufficient to establish a statistically significant
relationship between climate and eccentricity
[9] The nature of sediments can vary in a cyclic fashion, and these
variations. Some models can however reproduce the
cycles can be displayed in the sedimentary record. Here, cycles
100,000 year cycles as a result of non-linear interactions
can be observed in the colouration and resistance of different
between small changes in the Earth's orbit and internal strata
oscillations of the climate system.[10] [11]
Milankovitch cycles 165
400,000-year problem
The 400,000-year problem is that the eccentricity variations have a strong 400,000-year cycle. That cycle is only
clearly present in climate records older than the last million years. If the 100ka variations are having such a strong
effect, the 400ka variations might also be expected to be apparent. This is also known as the stage 11 problem, after
the interglacial in marine isotopic stage 11 which would be unexpected if the 400,000-year cycle has an impact on
climate. The relative absence of this periodicity in the marine isotopic record may be due, at least in part, to the
response times of the climate system components involved—in particular, the carbon cycle.
Stage 5 problem
The stage 5 problem refers to the timing of the penultimate interglacial (in marine isotopic stage 5) which appears to
have begun ten thousand years in advance of the solar forcing hypothesized to have caused it (the causality
problem).
Theory incomplete
The Milankovitch theory of climate change is not perfectly worked out; in particular, the greatest observed response
is at the 100,000-year timescale, but the forcing is apparently small at this scale, in regard to the ice ages.[14] Various
explanations for this discrepancy have been proposed, including frequency modulation[15] or various feedbacks
(from carbon dioxide, cosmic rays, or from ice sheet dynamics).
References
[1] Hays, J.D.; Imbrie, J.; Shackleton, N.J. (1976). "Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages". Science 194 (4270): 1121–1132.
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[3] Berger A., Loutre M.F., Mélice J.L. (2006). "Equatorial insolation: from precession harmonics to eccentricity frequencies" (http:/ / www.
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[11] Gildor H, Tziperman E (2000). "Sea ice as the glacial cycles' climate switch: Role of seasonal and orbital forcing". Paleoceanography 15
(6): 605–615. Bibcode 2000PalOc..15..605G. doi:10.1029/1999PA000461.
[12] Zachos JC, Shackleton NJ, Revenaugh JS, Pälike H, Flower BP (April 2001). "Climate response to orbital forcing across the
Oligocene-Miocene boundary" (http:/ / www. scencemag. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=11303100). Science 292 (5515): 27–48.
doi:10.1126/science.1058288. PMID 11303100. .
[13] Imbrie and Imbrie; Ice Ages, solving the mystery, p 158
[14] Milankovitch, Milutin (1998) [1941]. Canon of Insolation and the Ice Age Problem. Belgrade: Zavod za Udz̆benike i Nastavna Sredstva.
ISBN 8617066199.; see also "Astronomical Theory of Climate Change" (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ paleo/ milankovitch. html). .
[15] http:/ / www. geolab. unc. edu/ faculty/ rial/ GPCRial2. pdf
[16] F. Varadi, B. Runnegar, M. Ghil (2003). "Successive Refinements in Long-Term Integrations of Planetary Orbits" (http:/ / astrobiology.
ucla. edu/ OTHER/ SSO/ SolarSysInt. pdf) (PDF). The Astrophysical Journal 592: 620–630. Bibcode 2003ApJ...592..620V.
doi:10.1086/375560. .
[17] J Imbrie, J Z Imbrie (1980). "Modeling the Climatic Response to Orbital Variations". Science 207 (1980/02/29): 943–953.
doi:10.1126/science.207.4434.943. PMID 17830447.
[18] Berger A, Loutre MF (2002). "Climate: An exceptionally long interglacial ahead?". Science 297 (5585): 1287–8.
doi:10.1126/science.1076120. PMID 12193773.
[19] http:/ / amper. ped. muni. cz/ gw/ articles/ html. format/ orb_forc. html
Further reading
• Roe G (2006). "In defense of Milankovitch". Geophysical Research Letters 33 (24): L24703.
Bibcode 2006GeoRL..3324703R. doi:10.1029/2006GL027817. This shows that Milankovitch theory fits the data
extremely well, over the past million years, provided that we consider derivatives.
• Zachos J, Pagani M, Sloan L, Thomas E, Billups K (2001). "Trends, Rhythms, and Aberrations in Global Climate
65 Ma to Present". Science 292 (5517): 686–693. doi:10.1126/science.1059412. PMID 11326091.
This review article discusses cycles and great-scale changes in the global climate during the Cenozoic Era.
Milankovitch cycles 168
External links
• Milankovitch Cycles and Glaciation (http://www.homepage.montana.edu/~geol445/hyperglac/time1/
milankov.htm)
• The Milankovitch band (http://web.archive.org/web/20080729060933/http://www.agu.org/revgeophys/
overpe00/node6.html), Internet Archive of American Geophysical Union lecture
• Some history of the adoption of the Milankovitch hypothesis (and an alternative) (http://muller.lbl.gov/pages/
IceAgeBook/IceAgeTheories.html)
• More detail on orbital obliquity also matching climate patterns (http://muller.lbl.gov/papers/sciencespectra.
htm)
• Graph of variation in insolation (http://www.museum.state.il.us/exhibits/ice_ages/insolation_graph.html)
Note 20,000 year, 100,000 year, and 400,000 year cycles are clearly visible.
• "Milutin Milankovitch" (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Milankovitch/milankovitch.php). On the
Shoulders of Giants. Retrieved January 15, 2010.
• Potential Problems with Milankovitch Theory (http://www.detectingdesign.com/milankovitch.html) by Sean
Pitman (http://www.detectingdesign.com)
• The Seasons (http://aa.usno.navy.mil/faq/docs/seasons_orbit.php)
• The NOAA page on Climate Forcing Data (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/forcing.html) includes
(calculated) data on orbital variations over the last 50 million years and for the coming 20 million years.
• The orbital simulations by Varadi, Ghil and Runnegar (2003) (http://astrobiology.ucla.edu/OTHER/SSO/)
provide another, slightly different series for orbital eccentricity, and also a series for orbital inclination
• ABC: Earth wobbles linked to extinctions (http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/2006/1763328.htm)
Orbital forcing
Orbital forcing is the effect on climate of slow changes in the tilt of the Earth's axis and shape of the orbit (see
Milankovitch cycles). These orbital changes change the total amount of sunlight reaching the Earth by up to 25% at
mid-latitudes (from 400 to 500 Wm−2 at latitudes of 60 degrees). In this context, the term "forcing" signifies a
physical process that affects the Earth's climate.
This mechanism is believed to be responsible for the timing of the ice age cycles. A strict application of the
Milankovitch theory does not allow the prediction of a "sudden" ice age (rapid being anything under a century or
two), since the fastest orbital period is about 20,000 years. The timing of past glacial periods coincides very well
with the predictions of the Milankovitch theory, and these effects can be calculated into the future.
Orbital forcing 169
Overview
It is sometimes asserted that the length of the current interglacial
temperature peak will be similar to the length of the preceding
interglacial peak (Sangamonian/Eem Stage), and that therefore we
might be nearing the end of this warm period. However, this
conclusion is probably mistaken: the lengths of previous interglacials
were not particularly regular (see graphic at right). Berger and Loutre
(2002) argue that “with or without human perturbations, the current
warm climate may last another 50,000 years. The reason is a minimum
in the eccentricity of Earth's orbit around the Sun.”[1] Also, Archer and
Ice core data. Note length of glacial cycles
Ganopolski (2005) report that probable future CO2 emissions may be
averages ~100,000 years. Blue curve is
enough to suppress the glacial cycle for the next 500 kyr.[2] temperature, green curve is CO2, and red curve is
windblown glacial dust (loess). Today's date is on
Note in the graphic the strong 100,000 year periodicity of the cycles,
the left side of the graph.
and the striking asymmetry of the curves. This asymmetry is believed
to result from complex interactions of feedback mechanisms. It has
been observed that ice ages deepen by progressive steps, but the recovery to interglacial conditions occurs in one big
step.
Orbital mechanics require that the length of the seasons be proportional to the swept areas of the seasonal quadrants,
so when the eccentricity is extreme, the seasons on the far side of the orbit can last substantially longer. Today, when
autumn and winter in the northern hemisphere occur at closest approach, the earth is moving at its maximum velocity
and therefore autumn and winter are slightly shorter than spring and summer.
Today, northern hemisphere summer is
4.66 days longer than winter and
spring is 2.9 days longer than
autumn.[3] As axial precession changes
the place in the Earth's orbit where the
solstices and equinoxes occur,
Northern hemisphere winters will get
longer and summers will get shorter,
eventually creating conditions believed
to be favorable for triggering the next glacial period.
The arrangements of land masses on the Earth's surface are believed to reinforce the orbital forcing effects.
Comparisons of plate tectonic continent reconstructions and paleoclimatic studies show that the Milankovitch cycles
have the greatest effect during geologic eras when landmasses have been concentrated in polar regions, as is the case
today. Greenland, Antarctica, and the northern portions of Europe, Asia, and North America are situated such that a
minor change in solar energy will tip the balance between year-round snow/ice preservation and complete summer
melting. The presence of snow and ice is a well-understood positive feedback mechanism for climate.
Orbital forcing 170
References
[1] Berger, A.; Loutre, M. F. (2002). "An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead?". Science 297 (5585): 1287–1288.
doi:10.1126/science.1076120. PMID 12193773.
[2] Archer, David; Ganopolski, Andrey (2005). "A Movable Trigger: Fossil Fuel CO2 And The Onset Of The Next Glaciation". Geochemistry
Geophysics Geosystems 6: Q05003. doi:10.1029/2004GC000891.
[3] Benson, Gregory (2007-12-11). "Global Warming, Ice Ages, and Sea Level Changes: Something new or an astronomical phenomenon
occurring in present day?" (https:/ / sites. google. com/ site/ bensonfamilyhomepage/ Home/ ice-age-and-global-warming). .
Further reading
• Hays, J. D.; Imbrie, John; Shackleton, N. J. (1976). "Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages".
Science 194 (4270): 1121–1132. doi:10.1126/science.194.4270.1121. PMID 17790893.
• Hays, James D. (1996). Schneider, Stephen H.. ed. Encyclopedia of Weather and Climate. New York: Oxford
University Press. pp. 507–508. ISBN 0195094859.
• Lutgens, Frederick K.; Tarbuck, Edward J. (1998). The Atmosphere. An Introduction to Meteorology. Upper
Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice-Hall. ISBN 0137429746.
• National Research Council (1982). Solar Variability, Weather, and Climate. Washington, D.C.: National
Academy Press. p. 7. ISBN 0309032849.
External links
• The NOAA page on Climate Forcing Data (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/forcing.html) includes
(calculated) data on orbital variations over the last 50 million years and for the coming 20 million years
• The orbital simulations by Varadi, Ghil and Runnegar (2003) (http://astrobiology.ucla.edu/OTHER/SSO/)
provide another, slightly different series for orbital eccentricity
Solar variation
Solar variation is the change in the amount of
radiation emitted by the Sun and in its spectral
distribution over years to millennia. These
variations have periodic components, the main
one being the approximately 11-year solar cycle
(or sunspot cycle). The changes also have
aperiodic fluctuations.[1] In recent decades, solar
activity has been measured by satellites, while
before it was estimated using 'proxy' variables.
Scientists studying climate change are interested
in understanding the effects of variations in the
total and spectral solar irradiance on Earth and
One composite of the last 30 years of solar variability
its climate.
Variations in total solar irradiance were too small to detect with technology available before the satellite era,
although the small fraction in ultra-violet light varies by a few percent. Total solar output is now measured to vary
(over the last three 11-year sunspot cycles) by approximately 0.1%[2] [3] [4] or about 1.3 Watts per square meter
(W/m2) peak-to-trough during the 11-year sunspot cycle. The amount of solar radiation received at the outer surface
of Earth's atmosphere averages 1366 W/m2.[5] [6] [7] There are no direct measurements of the longer-term variation,
and interpretations of proxy measures of variations differ. The intensity of solar radiation reaching Earth has been
Solar variation 171
relatively constant through the last 2000 years, with variations of around 0.1-0.2%.[8] [9] [10] Solar variation, together
with volcanic activity probably contributed to climate change, for example during the Maunder Minimum. However,
changes in solar brightness are too weak to explain recent climate change.[11]
Around 1900, researchers began to explore connections between solar variations and weather on Earth. Of particular
note is the work of Charles Greeley Abbot. Abbot was assigned by the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory
(SAO) to detect changes in the radiation of the Sun. His team had to begin by inventing instruments to measure solar
radiation. Later, when Abbot was head of the SAO, it established a solar station at Calama, Chile to complement its
data from Mount Wilson Observatory. He detected 27 harmonic periods within the 273-month Hale cycles, including
7, 13, and 39 month patterns. He looked for connections to weather by means such as matching opposing solar trends
during a month to opposing temperature and precipitation trends in cities. With the advent of dendrochronology,
scientists such as Waldo S. Glock attempted to connect variation in tree growth to periodic solar variations in the
extant record and infer long-term secular variability in the solar constant from similar variations in millennial-scale
chronologies.[14]
Statistical studies that correlate weather and climate with solar activity have been popular for centuries, dating back
at least to 1801, when William Herschel noted an apparent connection between wheat prices and sunspot records.[15]
They now often involve high-density global datasets compiled from surface networks and weather satellite
observations and/or the forcing of climate models with synthetic or observed solar variability to investigate the
detailed processes by which the effects of solar variations propagate through the Earth's climate system.[16]
measured from the ground since the Earth's atmosphere is transparent at this wavelength. Lastly, solar flares are a
type of solar activity that can impact human life on Earth by affecting electrical systems, especially satellites. Flares
usually occur in the presence of sunspots, and hence the two are correlated, but flares themselves make only tiny
perturbations of the solar luminosity.
Recently, it has been claimed that the total solar irradiance is varying in ways that are not duplicated by changes in
sunspot observations or radio emissions. However, this conclusion is disputed. Some believe that shifts in irradiance
may be the result of calibration problems in the measuring satellites.[19] [20] These speculations also admit the
possibility that a small long-term trend might exist in solar irradiance.[21]
Sunspots
Sunspots are relatively dark areas on the
radiating 'surface' (photosphere) of the Sun
where intense magnetic activity inhibits
convection and cools the photosphere.
Faculae are slightly brighter areas that form
around sunspot groups as the flow of energy
to the photosphere is re-established and both
the normal flow and the sunspot-blocked
energy elevate the radiating 'surface'
temperature. Scientists have speculated on
possible relationships between sunspots and
solar luminosity since the historical sunspot
area record began in the 17th century.[22] [23] Graph showing proxies of solar activity, including changes in sunspot number and
Correlations are now known to exist with cosmogenic isotope production.
There had been some suggestion that variations in the solar diameter might cause variations in output. But recent
work, mostly from the Michelson Doppler Imager instrument on SOHO, shows these changes to be small, about
0.001% (Dziembowski et al., 2001).
Various studies have been made using sunspot number (for which records extend over hundreds of years) as a proxy
for solar output (for which good records only extend for a few decades). Also, ground instruments have been
calibrated by comparison with high-altitude and orbital instruments. Researchers have combined present readings
and factors to adjust historical data. Other proxy data — such as the abundance of cosmogenic isotopes — have been
used to infer solar magnetic activity and thus likely brightness.
Sunspot activity has been measured using the Wolf number for about 300 years. This index (also known as the
Zürich number) uses both the number of sunspots and the number of groups of sunspots to compensate for
variations in measurement. A 2003 study by Ilya Usoskin of the University of Oulu, Finland found that sunspots had
Solar variation 173
been more frequent since the 1940s than in the previous 1150 years.[26]
Sunspot numbers over the past 11,400 years
have been reconstructed using
dendrochronologically dated radiocarbon
concentrations. The level of solar activity
during the past 70 years is exceptional —
the last period of similar magnitude
occurred over 8,000 years ago. The Sun was
at a similarly high level of magnetic activity
for only ~10% of the past 11,400 years, and
almost all of the earlier high-activity periods
were shorter than the present episode.[27] Reconstruction of solar activity over 11,400 years. Period of equally high activity
over 8,000 years ago marked.
Solar activity events recorded in radiocarbon. Present period is on left. Values since 1900
not shown.
A list of historical Grand minima of solar activity [28] includes also Grand minima ca. 690 AD, 360 BC, 770 BC,
1390 BC, 2860 BC, 3340 BC, 3500 BC, 3630 BC, 3940 BC, 4230 BC, 4330 BC, 5260 BC, 5460 BC, 5620 BC, 5710
BC, 5990 BC, 6220 BC, 6400 BC, 7040 BC, 7310 BC, 7520 BC, 8220 BC, 9170 BC.
Solar variation 174
Solar cycles
Solar cycles are cyclic changes in behavior of the Sun. Many possible patterns have been suggested; only the 11 and
22 year cycles are clear in the observations.
• 11 years: Most obvious is a gradual
increase and more rapid decrease of the
number of sunspots over a period ranging
from 9 to 12 years, called the Schwabe
cycle, named after Heinrich Schwabe.
Differential rotation of the sun's
convection zone (as a function of
latitude) consolidates magnetic flux 2,300 year Hallstatt solar variation cycles.
tubes, increases their magnetic field
strength and makes them buoyant (see Babcock Model). As they rise through the solar atmosphere they partially
block the convective flow of energy, cooling their region of the photosphere, causing 'sunspots'. The Sun's
apparent surface, the photosphere, radiates more actively when there are more sunspots. Satellite monitoring of
solar luminosity since 1980 has shown there is a direct relationship between the solar activity (sunspot) cycle and
luminosity with a solar cycle peak-to-peak amplitude of about 0.1 %.[2] Luminosity has also been found to
decrease by as much as 0.3 % on a 10 day timescale when large groups of sunspots rotate across the Earth's view
and increase by as much as 0.05 % for up to 6 months due to faculae associated with the large sunspot groups.[24]
• 22 years: Hale cycle, named after George Ellery Hale. The magnetic field of the Sun reverses during each
Schwabe cycle, so the magnetic poles return to the same state after two reversals.
• 87 years (70–100 years): Gleissberg cycle, named after Wolfgang Gleißberg, is thought to be an amplitude
modulation of the 11-year Schwabe Cycle (Sonnett and Finney, 1990),[29] Braun, et al., (2005).[30]
• 210 years: Suess cycle (a.k.a. de Vries cycle). Braun, et al., (2005).[30]
• 2,300 years: Hallstatt cycle[31] [32]
• 6000 years (Xapsos and Burke, 2009).[33]
Other patterns have been detected:
• In carbon-14: 105, 131, 232, 385, 504, 805, 2,241 years (Damon and Sonnett, 1991).
• During the Upper Permian 240 million years ago, mineral layers created in the Castile Formation show cycles of
2,500 years.
The sensitivity of climate to cyclical variations in solar forcing will be higher for longer cycles due to the thermal
inertia of the ocean, which acts to damp high frequencies. Using a phenomenological approach, Scafetta and West
(2005) found that the climate was 1.5 times as sensitive to 22 year cyclical forcing relative to 11 year cyclical
forcing, and that the thermal inertial induced a lag of approximately 2.2 years in cyclic climate response in the
temperature data.[34]
• Because carbon-14 cycles are quasi periodic, Damon and Sonett (1989) predict future climate:[37]
Solar irradiance, or insolation, is the
amount of sunlight which reaches the
Earth. The equipment used might
measure optical brightness, total
radiation, or radiation in various
frequencies. Historical estimates use
various measurements and proxies.
Effects on clouds
• Cosmic rays have been hypothesized to affect formation of clouds through possible effects on production of cloud
condensation nuclei. Observational evidence for such a relationship is inconclusive.
• 1983–1994 data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) showed that global low cloud
formation was highly correlated with cosmic ray flux; subsequent to this the correlation breaks down.[43]
Geomagnetic effects
The Earth's polar aurorae are visual displays created by interactions
between the solar wind, the solar magnetosphere, the Earth's magnetic
field, and the Earth's atmosphere. Variations in any of these affect
aurora displays.
Sudden changes can cause the intense disturbances in the Earth's
magnetic fields which are called geomagnetic storms.
Solar particles interact with Earth's
Solar proton events magnetosphere
Cloud effects
Changes in ionization affect the abundance of aerosols that serve as the nuclei of condensation for cloud
formation.[44] As a result, ionization levels potentially affect levels of condensation, low clouds, relative humidity,
and albedo due to clouds. Clouds formed from greater amounts of condensation nuclei are brighter, longer lived, and
likely to produce less precipitation. Changes of 3–4% in cloudiness and concurrent changes in cloud top
temperatures have been correlated to the 11 and 22 year solar (sunspot) cycles, with increased GCR levels during
"antiparallel" cycles.[45] Global average cloud cover change has been found to be 1.5–2%. Several studies of GCR
and cloud cover variations have found positive correlation at latitudes greater than 50° and negative correlation at
lower latitudes.[44] However, not all scientists accept this correlation as statistically significant, and some that do
attribute it to other solar variability (e.g. UV or total irradiance variations) rather than directly to GCR changes.[46]
[47]
Difficulties in interpreting such correlations include the fact that many aspects of solar variability change at
similar times, and some climate systems have delayed responses.
Carbon-14 production
The production of carbon-14 (radiocarbon:
14
C) also is related to solar activity.
Carbon-14 is produced in the upper
atmosphere when cosmic ray bombardment
of atmospheric nitrogen (14N) induces the
Nitrogen to undergo β+ decay, thus
transforming into an unusual isotope of
Carbon with an atomic weight of 14 rather
than the more common 12. Because cosmic
rays are partially excluded from the Solar
System by the outward sweep of magnetic
fields in the solar wind, increased solar Sunspot record (blue) with 14C (inverted).
Therefore, the atmospheric 14C concentration is lower during sunspot maxima and higher during sunspot minima.
By measuring the captured 14C in wood and counting tree rings, production of radiocarbon relative to recent wood
can be measured and dated. A reconstruction of the past 10,000 years shows that the 14C production was much
higher during the mid-Holocene 7,000 years ago and decreased until 1,000 years ago. In addition to variations in
solar activity, the long term trends in carbon-14 production are influenced by changes in the Earth's geomagnetic
field and by changes in carbon cycling within the biosphere (particularly those associated with changes in the extent
of vegetation since the last ice age).[49]
Solar variation 179
Global warming
See Solar constant#Variation.
References
Footnotes
[1] Satellite observations of total solar irradiance (http:/ / www. acrim. com)
[2] Willson, Richard C.; H.S. Hudson (1991). "The Sun's luminosity over a complete solar cycle" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/
v351/ n6321/ abs/ 351042a0. html). Nature 351 (6321): 42–4. doi:10.1038/351042a0. .
[3] "Solar Forcing of Climate" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 244. htm). Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The
Scientific Basis. . Retrieved 2005-03-10.
[4] Weart, Spencer (2006). "The Discovery of Global Warming" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ index. html). In Weart, Spencer.
American Institute of Physics. . Retrieved 2007-04-14.
[5] http:/ / acrim. com/ TSI%20Monitoring. htm
[6] Willson, R. C.; Mordvinov, A. V. (2003). "Secular total solar irradiance trend during solar cycles 21–23" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ gl/
gl0905/ 2008GL036307). Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 (5): 1199. Bibcode 2003GeoRL..30e...3W. doi:10.1029/2002GL016038. .
[7] "Construction of a Composite Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Time Series from 1978 to present" (http:/ / www. pmodwrc. ch/ pmod.
php?topic=tsi/ composite/ SolarConstant). Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos (PMOD). . Retrieved 2005-10-05.
[8] Committee on Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on
Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council of the National Academies. (2006). "Climate Forcings and Climate Models" (http:/ / books.
nap. edu/ openbook. php?record_id=11676& page=102). In North, Gerald R.; Biondi, Franco; Bloomfield, Peter et al.. Surface Temperature
Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (http:/ / www. nap. edu/ catalog. php?record_id=11676). National Academies Press.
ISBN 0-309-10225-1. . Retrieved 19 April 2007.
[9] Lean, J. (2000). "Evolution of the Sun's Spectral Irradiance Since the Maunder Minimum" (ftp:/ / ftp. ncdc. noaa. gov/ pub/ data/ paleo/
climate_forcing/ solar_variability/ lean2000_irradiance. txt). Geophysical Research Letters 27 (16): 2425–8. Bibcode 2000GeoRL..27.2425L.
doi:10.1029/2000GL000043. .
[10] Scafetta, N.; West, B. J. (2006). "Phenomenological solar signature in 400 years of reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperature record"
(http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ gl/ gl0617/ 2006GL027142/ ). Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 (17): L17718. Bibcode 2006GeoRL..3317718S.
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[11] UCAR (September 13, 2006). "Changes In Solar Brightness Too Weak To Explain Global Warming" (http:/ / www. ucar. edu/ news/
releases/ 2006/ brightness. shtml). Press release. . Retrieved 18 April 2007.
[12] "Great Moments in the History of Solar Physics 1" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20060301083022/ http:/ / web. hao. ucar. edu/ public/
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[14] Fritts, Harold C. (1976). Tree rings and climate. Boston: Academic Press. ISBN 0-12-268450-8.
[15] "William Herschel (1738–1822)" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070607215435/ http:/ / www. hao. ucar. edu/ Public/ education/ bios/
herschel. html). High Altitude Observatory. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. hao. ucar. edu/ Public/ education/ bios/ herschel. html)
on June 7, 2007. . Retrieved 2008-02-27.
[16] Camp, Charles D.; Tung, Ka-Kit; Quinif, Yves; Kaufman, Olivier; Van Ruymbeke, Michel; Vandiepenbeeck, Marc; Camelbeeck, Thierry
(2006). "The Influence of the Solar Cycle and QBO on the Late Winter Stratospheric Polar Vortex" (http:/ / www. amath. washington. edu/
research/ articles/ Tung/ journals/ camp-tung-0721-revised. pdf) (PDF). EOS Trans. AGU 87 (52): Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract #A11B–0862.
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[17] TSI Composites (http:/ / www. acrim. com/ TSI Monitoring. htm)
[18] http:/ / www. pmodwrc. ch/ pmod. php?topic=tsi/ composite/ SolarConstant
[19] Richard C. Willson, Alexander V. Mordvinov (2003). "Secular total solar irradiance trend during solar cycles 21–23". Geophysical
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THE LONG-TERM TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE TREND". Solar Physics 224 (1-2): 209–216. doi:10.1007/s11207-005-5698-7.
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[22] Eddy, J.A. (1990). "Samuel P. Langley (1834–1906)" (http:/ / www. hao. ucar. edu/ Public/ education/ bios/ langley. html). Journal for the
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[23] Foukal, P. V.; Mack, P. E.; Vernazza, J. E. (1977). "The effect of sunspots and faculae on the solar constant" (http:/ / ucp. uchicago. edu/
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Solar variation 180
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[34] Scafetta, Nicola; West, Bruce J. (2005). "Estimated solar contribution to the global surface warming using the ACRIM TSI satellite
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[35] Perry, Charles A.; Hsu, Kenneth J. (2000). "Geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate
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[36] Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M. (2004). "What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/
20060104223339/ http:/ / science. msfc. nasa. gov/ ssl/ pad/ solar/ papers/ hathadh/ HathawayWilson2004. pdf) (PDF). Solar physics 224
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[39] Wang, Y.-M.; Lean, J. L.; Sheeley, N. R. (2005). "Modeling the Sun's magnetic field and irradiance since 1713" (http:/ / www. climatesci.
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(http:/ / www. aanda. org/ articles/ aa/ abs/ 2007/ 19/ aa6725-06/ aa6725-06. html). A&A 467 (1): 335–46. Bibcode 2007A&A...467..335K.
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[41] Steinhilber, F.; Beer, J.; Fröhlich, C. (2009). "Total solar irradiance during the Holocene". Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 (19): L19704.
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[42] Lean, J. (14 April 1989). "Contribution of Ultraviolet Irradiance Variations to Changes in the Sun's Total Irradiance (http:/ / www.
sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 244/ 4901/ 197) Science"]. Science 244 (4901): 197–200. doi:10.1126/science.244.4901.197.
PMID 17835351. . "1 percent of the sun's energy is emitted at ultraviolet wavelengths between 200 and 300 nanometers, the decrease in this
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Solar variation 181
[43] Damon, Paul E.; Paul Laut (28 2004). "Pattern of Strange Errors Plagues Solar Activity and Terrestrial Climate Data" (http:/ /
stephenschneider. stanford. edu/ Publications/ PDF_Papers/ DamonLaut2004. pdf) (PDF). Eos 85 (39September): 370–4.
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clouds" (http:/ / www. arm. ac. uk/ preprints/ 433. pdf) (PDF). Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 66 (18): 1779.
doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2004.07.041. .
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Research/ EarthShine/ literature/ Palle_2005_GRL. pdf) (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters 32 (3): L03802.1–4.
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[49] Landscheidt, Theodor (21 September 2003). "Variations in CO2 Growth Rate Associated with Solar Activity" (http:/ / www. john-daly. com/
theodor/ co2new. htm). John-daly.com — website of John Lawrence Daly. . Retrieved 2007-04-19.
General references
• Abbot, C. G. (1966). "Solar Variation, A Weather Element" (http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/56/6/1627.
pdf) (PDF). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 56 (6): 1627–34. doi:10.1073/pnas.56.6.1627. PMC 220145.
PMID 16591394.
• Willson, Richard C.; H.S. Hudson (1991). "The Sun's luminosity over a complete solar cycle" (http://www.
nature.com/nature/journal/v351/n6321/abs/351042a0.html). Nature 351 (6321): 42–4.
doi:10.1038/351042a0.
• "The Sun and Climate" (http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-0095-00/). U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 0095-00.
Retrieved 2005-02-21.
• "The Sun's role in Climate Changes" (http://web.archive.org/web/20041022012450/http://zeus.nascom.
nasa.gov/~pbrekke/articles/halifax_brekke.pdf) (PDF). Proc. of The International Conference on Global
Warming and The Next Ice Age, 19–24 August 2001, Halifax, Nova Scotia.. Archived from the original (http://
zeus.nascom.nasa.gov/~pbrekke/articles/halifax_brekke.pdf) on October 22, 2004. Retrieved 2005-02-21.
• White, Warren B.; Lean, Judith; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D. (1997). "Response of global upper
ocean temperature to changing solar irradiance" (http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/1997/96JC03549.shtml).
Journal of Geophysical Research 102 (C2): 3255–66. Bibcode 1997JGR...102.3255W. doi:10.1029/96JC03549.
• Foukal, Peter; et al. (1977). "The effects of sunspots and faculae on the solar constant". Astrophysical Journal
215: 952. Bibcode 1977ApJ...215..952F. doi:10.1086/155431.
• Dziembowski, W.A.; P.R. Goode, and J. Schou (2001). "Does the sun shrink with increasing magnetic activity?".
Astrophysical Journal 553 (2): 897–904. Bibcode 2001ApJ...553..897D. doi:10.1086/320976.
• Stetson, H.T. (1937). Sunspots and Their Effects. New York: McGraw Hill.
Solar variation 182
External links
• Gerrit Lohmann, Norel Rimbu, Mihai Dima (2004). "Climate signature of solar irradiance variations: analysis of
long-term instrumental, historical, and proxy data" (http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/abstract/
109062443/ABSTRACT). International Journal of Climatology 24 (8): 1045–56. doi:10.1002/joc.1054.
• Solar Climatic Effects (Recent Influence) — Summary. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global
Change. 19 March 2003. http://www.co2science.org/subject/s/summaries/solarrecin.htm
• NOAA / NESDIS / NGDC (2002) Solar Variability Affecting Earth (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/CDROM/
solar_variability.html) NOAA CD-ROM NGDC-05/01. This CD-ROM contains over 100 solar-terrestrial and
related global data bases covering the period through April 1990. http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/CDROM/
solar_variability.html
• Solanki, S.K.; Fligge, M. (2001). Long-term changes in solar irradiance (http://www.astro.phys.ethz.ch/
papers/fligge/solspa_2.pdf). ESA Publications Division. ESA SP-463.
• Solanki, S.K.; Fligge, M. (2000). "Reconstruction of past solar irradiance" (http://www.astro.phys.ethz.ch/
papers/fligge/solfli_rev.pdf). Space Science Review 94 (1/2): 127–38. doi:10.1023/A:1026754803423.
• Reid, George C. (1995). "The sun-climate question: Is there a real connection?" (http://www.agu.org/
revgeophys/reid00/reid00.html). Rev. Geophys. 33 (Suppl). Aeronomy Laboratory, NOAA/ERL, Boulder,
Colorado. U.S. National Report to IUGG, 1991–1994
• Recent Total Solar Irradiance data (http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/data/tsi_data.htm) updated every Monday
Volcano
Intraplate volcanism has also been postulated to be caused by mantle plumes. These so-called "hotspots", for
example Hawaii, are postulated to arise from upwelling diapirs from the core-mantle boundary, 3,000 km deep in the
Earth.
Etymology
The word volcano is derived from the name of Vulcano, a volcanic island in the Aeolian Islands of Italy whose name
in turn originates from Vulcan, the name of a god of fire in Roman mythology.[2] The study of volcanoes is called
volcanology, sometimes spelled vulcanology.
Plate tectonics
volcano are Mount Etna and the volcanoes in the Pacific Ring of Fire.
"Hotspots"
"Hotspots" is the name given to volcanic provinces postulated to be
formed by mantle plumes. These are postulated to comprise columns of
hot material that rise from the core-mantle boundary. They are
suggested to be hot, causing large-volume melting, and to be fixed in
space. Because the tectonic plates move across them, each volcano
becomes dormant after a while and a new volcano is then formed as the
plate shifts over the postulated plume. The Hawaiian Islands have been Lava enters the Pacific at the Big Island of
suggested to have been formed in such a manner, as well as the Snake Hawaii
River Plain, with the Yellowstone Caldera being the part of the North
American plate currently above the hot spot. This theory is currently under criticism, however.[1]
Volcanic features
The most common perception of a volcano is of a conical mountain,
spewing lava and poisonous gases from a crater at its summit. This
describes just one of many types of volcano, and the features of
volcanoes are much more complicated. The structure and behavior of
volcanoes depends on a number of factors. Some volcanoes have
rugged peaks formed by lava domes rather than a summit crater,
whereas others present landscape features such as massive plateaus.
Vents that issue volcanic material (lava, which is what magma is called
once it has escaped to the surface, and ash) and gases (mainly steam
Conical Mount Fuji in Japan, at sunrise from
and magmatic gases) can be located anywhere on the landform. Many
Lake Kawaguchi (2005)
of these vents give rise to smaller cones such as Puʻu ʻŌʻō on a flank of
Hawaii's Kīlauea.
Volcano 185
Fissure vents
Volcanic fissure vents are flat, linear cracks through which lava Lakagigar fissure vent in Iceland, source of the
emerges. major world climate alteration of 1783–84.
Volcanic eruptions are experienced somewhere in
[3]
Iceland on an average of once every five years.
Shield volcanoes
Shield volcanoes, so named for their broad, shield-like profiles, are
formed by the eruption of low-viscosity lava that can flow a great
distance from a vent, but not generally explode catastrophically. Since
low-viscosity magma is typically low in silica, shield volcanoes are
more common in oceanic than continental settings. The Hawaiian
volcanic chain is a series of shield cones, and they are common in
Iceland, as well.
Lava domes are built by slow eruptions of highly viscous lavas. They
are sometimes formed within the crater of a previous volcanic eruption
(as in Mount Saint Helens), but can also form independently, as in the
case of Lassen Peak. Like stratovolcanoes, they can produce violent,
explosive eruptions, but their lavas generally do not flow far from the
originating vent.
Cryptodomes
Cryptodomes are formed when viscous lava forces its way up and January 2009 image of the rhyolitic lava dome of
Chaitén Volcano, southern Chile during its
causes a bulge. The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens was an
2008–2009 eruption
example. Lava was under great pressure and forced a bulge in the
mountain, which was unstable and slid down the north side.
In recorded history, explosive eruptions by stratovolcanoes have posed the greatest hazard to civilizations, as ash is
produced by an explosive eruption. No supervolcano erupted in recorded history. Shield volcanoes have not an
enormous pressure build up from the lava flow. Fissure vents and monogenetic volcanic fields (volcanic cones) have
not powerful explosive eruptions, as they are many times under extension. Stratovolcanoes (30–35°) are steeper than
shield volcanoes (generally 5–10°), their loose tephra are material for dangerous lahars.[4]
Supervolcanoes
A supervolcano is a large volcano that usually has a large caldera and
can potentially produce devastation on an enormous, sometimes
continental, scale. Such eruptions would be able to cause severe
cooling of global temperatures for many years afterwards because of
the huge volumes of sulfur and ash erupted. They are the most
dangerous type of volcano. Examples include Yellowstone Caldera in
Yellowstone National Park and Valles Caldera in New Mexico (both
western United States), Lake Taupo in New Zealand, Lake Toba in
Sumatra, Indonesia and Ngorogoro Crater in Tanzania, Krakatoa near
The Lake Toba volcano created a caldera 100 km
Java and Sumatra, Indonesia. Supervolcanoes are hard to identify
long
centuries later, given the enormous areas they cover. Large igneous
provinces are also considered supervolcanoes because of the vast
amount of basalt lava erupted, but are non-explosive.
Submarine volcanoes
Submarine volcanoes are common features on the ocean floor. Some are active and, in shallow water, disclose their
presence by blasting steam and rocky debris high above the surface of the sea. Many others lie at such great depths
that the tremendous weight of the water above them prevents the explosive release of steam and gases, although they
can be detected by hydrophones and discoloration of water because of volcanic gases. Pumice rafts may also appear.
Even large submarine eruptions may not disturb the ocean surface. Because of the rapid cooling effect of water as
compared to air, and increased buoyancy, submarine volcanoes often form rather steep pillars over their volcanic
vents as compared to above-surface volcanoes. They may become so large that they break the ocean surface as new
islands. Pillow lava is a common eruptive product of submarine volcanoes. Hydrothermal vents are common near
these volcanoes, and some support peculiar ecosystems based on dissolved minerals.
Volcano 187
Subglacial volcanoes
Subglacial volcanoes develop underneath icecaps. They are made up
of flat lava which flows at the top of extensive pillow lavas and
palagonite. When the icecap melts, the lavas on the top collapse,
leaving a flat-topped mountain. These volcanoes are also called table
mountains, tuyas or (uncommonly) mobergs. Very good examples of
this type of volcano can be seen in Iceland, however, there are also
tuyas in British Columbia. The origin of the term comes from Tuya
Butte, which is one of the several tuyas in the area of the Tuya River
and Tuya Range in northern British Columbia. Tuya Butte was the first Herðubreið, one of the tuyas in Iceland
such landform analyzed and so its name has entered the geological
literature for this kind of volcanic formation. The Tuya Mountains
Provincial Park was recently established to protect this unusual
landscape, which lies north of Tuya Lake and south of the Jennings
River near the boundary with the Yukon Territory.
Mud volcanoes
Mud volcanoes or mud domes are formations created by geo-excreted
liquids and gases, although there are several processes which may
cause such activity. The largest structures are 10 kilometers in diameter Mud volcano on Taman Peninsula, Russia
and reach 700 meters high.
Erupted material
Lava composition
Another way of classifying volcanoes is by the composition of material
erupted (lava), since this affects the shape of the volcano. Lava can be
broadly classified into 4 different compositions (Cas & Wright, 1987):
• If the erupted magma contains a high percentage (>63%) of silica,
the lava is called felsic.
• Felsic lavas (dacites or rhyolites) tend to be highly viscous (not
Pāhoehoe Lava flow on Hawaii. The picture
very fluid) and are erupted as domes or short, stubby flows.
shows overflows of a main lava channel.
Viscous lavas tend to form stratovolcanoes or lava domes.
Lassen Peak in California is an example of a volcano formed
from felsic lava and is actually a large lava dome.
• Because siliceous magmas are so viscous, they tend to trap volatiles (gases) that are present, which cause the
magma to erupt catastrophically, eventually forming stratovolcanoes. Pyroclastic flows (ignimbrites) are
highly hazardous products of such volcanoes, since they are composed of molten volcanic ash too heavy to go
up into the atmosphere, so they hug the volcano's slopes and travel far from their vents during large eruptions.
Volcano 188
Lava texture
Two types of lava are named according to the surface texture: ʻAʻa (pronounced Hawaiian pronunciation: [ˈʔaʔa]) and
pāhoehoe (Hawaiian pronunciation: [paːˈho.eˈho.e]), both Hawaiian words. ʻAʻa is characterized by a rough, clinkery
surface and is the typical texture of viscous lava flows. However, even basaltic or mafic flows can be erupted as ʻaʻa
flows, particularly if the eruption rate is high and the slope is steep.
Pāhoehoe is characterized by its smooth and often ropey or wrinkly surface and is generally formed from more fluid
lava flows. Usually, only mafic flows will erupt as pāhoehoe, since they often erupt at higher temperatures or have
Volcano 189
the proper chemical make-up to allow them to flow with greater fluidity.
Volcanic activity
Active
Presently there are about 500 active volcanoes in the world – the
majority following along the Pacific 'Ring of Fire' – and around 50 of
these erupt each year.[7] The United States is home to 50 active
volcanoes.[8] There are more than 1,500 potentially active volcanoes.[9]
An estimated 500 million people live near active volcanoes.[10]
Extinct
Dormant
It is difficult to distinguish an extinct volcano from a dormant one. Volcanoes are often considered to be extinct if
there are no written records of its activity. Nevertheless, volcanoes may remain dormant for a long period of time.
For example, Yellowstone has a repose/recharge period of around 700 ka, and Toba of around 380 ka.[11] Vesuvius
was described by Roman writers as having been covered with gardens and vineyards before its famous eruption of
AD 79, which destroyed the towns of Herculaneum and Pompeii. Before its catastrophic eruption of 1991, Pinatubo
was an inconspicuous volcano, unknown to most people in the surrounding areas. Two other examples are the
long-dormant Soufrière Hills volcano on the island of Montserrat, thought to be extinct before activity resumed in
1995 and Fourpeaked Mountain in Alaska, which, before its September 2006 eruption, had not erupted since before
8000 BC and had long been thought to be extinct.
Notable volcanoes
The 16 current Decade Volcanoes are:
Effects of volcanoes
There are many different types of volcanic eruptions and associated
activity: phreatic eruptions (steam-generated eruptions), explosive
eruption of high-silica lava (e.g., rhyolite), effusive eruption of
low-silica lava (e.g., basalt), pyroclastic flows, lahars (debris flow) and
carbon dioxide emission. All of these activities can pose a hazard to
humans. Earthquakes, hot springs, fumaroles, mud pots and geysers
often accompany volcanic activity.
radiation from the Sun back into space – and thus cool the Earth's
lower atmosphere or troposphere; however, they also absorb heat
radiated up from the Earth, thereby warming the stratosphere. Several
eruptions during the past century have caused a decline in the average
temperature at the Earth's surface of up to half a degree (Fahrenheit
scale) for periods of one to three years — sulfur dioxide from the
eruption of Huaynaputina probably caused the Russian famine of 1601
- 1603.[12] Sulfur dioxide emissions by volcanoes.
Ash thrown into the air by eruptions can present a hazard to aircraft, especially jet aircraft where the particles can be
melted by the high operating temperature. Dangerous encounters in 1982 after the eruption of Galunggung in
Indonesia, and 1989 after the eruption of Mount Redoubt in Alaska raised awareness of this phenomenon. Nine
Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers were established by the International Civil Aviation Organization to monitor ash
clouds and advise pilots accordingly. The 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull caused major disruptions to air travel in
Europe.
There are several extinct volcanoes on Mars, four of which are vast shield
volcanoes far bigger than any on Earth. They include Arsia Mons, Ascraeus
Olympus Mons (Latin, "Mount
Mons, Hecates Tholus, Olympus Mons, and Pavonis Mons. These volcanoes
Olympus") is the tallest known
have been extinct for many millions of years,[24] but the European Mars Express mountain in our solar system, located
spacecraft has found evidence that volcanic activity may have occurred on Mars on the planet Mars.
in the recent past as well.[24]
Volcano 194
A 2010 study of the exoplanet COROT-7b, which was detected by transit in 2009, studied that tidal heating from the
host star very close to the planet and neighboring planets could generate intense volcanic activity similar to Io.[28]
Panoramas
Remote Binubulauan in Kalinga province, central northern Luzon, Philippines, April 2009
Volcano 197
References
[1] Foulger, G.R. (2010). Plates vs. Plumes: A Geological Controversy (http:/ / www. wiley. com/ WileyCDA/ WileyTitle/
productCd-1405161485. html). Wiley-Blackwell. ISBN 978-1-4051-6148-0. .
[2] Douglas Harper (November 2001). "Volcano" (http:/ / www. etymonline. com/ index. php?term=volcano). Online Etymology Dictionary. .
Retrieved 2009-06-11.
[3] " Iceland (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=4-puvJH_lykC& pg=PA100& dq& hl=en#v=onepage& q=& f=false)". Jane Simmonds
(1999). Langenscheidt. p.100. ISBN 0887291767
[4] Lockwood, John P.; Hazlett, Richard W. (2010). Volcanoes: Global Perspectives (http:/ / books. google. com/ ?id=eJopFDVRgYMC&
pg=PA115& dq). p. 552. ISBN 978-1-4051-6250-0. .
[5] " Volcanoes (http:/ / pubs. usgs. gov/ gip/ volc/ text. html)". U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey.
[6] " Mountains of fire: the nature of volcanoes (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=-P83AAAAIAAJ& pg=PA7& dq& hl=en#v=onepage&
q=& f=false)". Robert Wayne Decker, Barbara Decker (1991). p.7. ISBN 0521312906
[7] " Volcanoes (http:/ / www. esa. int/ SPECIALS/ Space_for_our_climate/ SEM3XU2VQUD_0. html)". European Space Agency.
[8] " Volcano Environments (http:/ / pubs. usgs. gov/ gip/ volc/ environments. html)". U.S. Geological Survey.
[9] " Sensing Remote Volcanoes (http:/ / earthobservatory. nasa. gov/ Features/ monvoc/ )". NASA Earth Observatory.
[10] " Volcanoes (http:/ / www. alertnet. org/ db/ crisisprofiles/ VOLCANO. htm)". Reuters. December 12, 2009.
[11] Chesner, C.A.; Westgate, J.A.; Rose, W.I.; Drake, R.; Deino, A. (March 1991). "Eruptive History of Earth's Largest Quaternary caldera
(Toba, Indonesia) Clarified" (http:/ / www. geo. mtu. edu/ ~raman/ papers/ ChesnerGeology. pdf). Geology 19: 200–203.
doi:10.1130/0091-7613(1991)019<0200:EHOESL>2.3.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-01-20.
[12] University of California – Davis (2008, April 25). "Volcanic Eruption Of 1600 Caused Global Disruption" (http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com/
releases/ 2008/ 04/ 080423135236. htm). ScienceDaily. .
[13] " Supervolcano Eruption – In Sumatra – Deforested India 73,000 Years Ago (http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com/ releases/ 2009/ 11/
091123142739. htm)". ScienceDaily. November 24, 2009.
[14] " The new batch – 150,000 years ago (http:/ / www. bbc. co. uk/ sn/ prehistoric_life/ human/ human_evolution/ new_batch1. shtml)". BBC –
Science & Nature – The evolution of man.
[15] "When humans faced extinction" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 2975862. stm). BBC. 2003-06-09. . Retrieved
2007-01-05.
[16] " Volcanoes in human history: the far-reaching effects of major eruptions (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=ipNcKc0Mv5IC&
pg=PA155& dq& hl=en#v=onepage& q=& f=false)". Jelle Zeilinga de Boer, Donald Theodore Sanders (2002). Princeton University Press.
p.155. ISBN 0691050813
[17] Oppenheimer, Clive (2003). "Climatic, environmental and human consequences of the largest known historic eruption: Tambora volcano
(Indonesia) 1815". Progress in Physical Geography 27 (2): 230–259. doi:10.1191/0309133303pp379ra.
[18] " Ó Gráda, C.: Famine: A Short History (http:/ / press. princeton. edu/ chapters/ s8857. html)". Princeton University Press.
[19] " Yellowstone's Super Sister (http:/ / dsc. discovery. com/ convergence/ supervolcano/ others/ others_07. html)". Discovery Channel.
[20] Benton M J (2005). When Life Nearly Died: The Greatest Mass Extinction of All Time. Thames & Hudson. ISBN 978-0500285732.
[21] "Volcanic Gases and Their Effects" (http:/ / volcanoes. usgs. gov/ Hazards/ What/ VolGas/ volgas. html). U.S. Geological Survey. .
Retrieved 2007-06-16.
[22] M. A. Wieczorek, B. L. Jolliff, A. Khan, M. E. Pritchard, B. P. Weiss, J. G. Williams, L. L. Hood, K. Righter, C. R. Neal, C. K. Shearer, I.
S. McCallum, S. Tompkins, B. R. Hawke, C. Peterson, J, J. Gillis, B. Bussey (2006). "The Constitution and Structure of the Lunar Interior".
Reviews in Mineralogy and Geochemistry 60 (1): 221–364. doi:10.2138/rmg.2006.60.3.
[23] D.L. Bindschadler (1995). "Magellan: A new view of Venus' geology and geophysics" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ rg/ rg9504S/
95RG00281/ index. html). American Geophysical Union. . Retrieved 2006-09-04.
[24] "Glacial, volcanic and fluvial activity on Mars: latest images" (http:/ / www. esa. int/ esaMI/ Mars_Express/ SEMLF6D3M5E_0. html).
European Space Agency. 2005-02-25. . Retrieved 2006-08-17.
[25] Exceptionally Bright Eruption on lo Rivals Largest in Solar System, Nov. 13, 2002 (http:/ / www2. keck. hawaii. edu/ news/ archive/
eruption/ )
[26] "Cassini Finds an Atmosphere on Saturn's Moon Enceladus'" (http:/ / www. pparc. ac. uk/ Nw/ enceladus. asp). Pparc.ac.uk. . Retrieved
2010-10-24.
[27] "Hydrocarbon volcano discovered on Titan" (http:/ / www. newscientist. com/ article. ns?id=dn7489). Newscientist.com. June 8, 2005. .
Retrieved 2010-10-24.
[28] Jaggard, Victoria (2010-02-05). ""Super Earth" May Really Be New Planet Type: Super-Io" (http:/ / news. nationalgeographic. com/ news/
2010/ 02/ 100205-new-type-planet-corot-7b-io/ ). National Geographic web site daily news (http:/ / news. nationalgeographic. com/ news/ ).
National Geographic Society. . Retrieved 2010-03-11.
[29] Micheal Williams (11-2007). "Hearts of fire". Morning Calm (Korean Air Lines Co., Ltd.) (11-2007): 6.
Volcano 198
Further reading
• Cas, R.A.F. and J.V. Wright, 1987. Volcanic Successions. Unwin Hyman Inc. 528p. ISBN 0-04-552022-4
• Macdonald, Gordon and Agatin T. Abbott. (1970). Volcanoes in the Sea. University of Hawaii Press, Honolulu.
441 p.
• Marti, Joan and Ernst, Gerald. (2005). Volcanoes and the Environment. Cambridge University Press.
ISBN 0-521-59254-2.
• Ollier, Cliff. (1988). Volcanoes. Basil Blackwell, Oxford, UK, ISBN 0-631-15664-X (hardback), ISBN
0-631-15977-0 (paperback).
• Sigurðsson, Haraldur, ed. (1999) Encyclopedia of Volcanoes. Academic Press. ISBN 0-12-643140-X. This is a
reference aimed at geologists, but many articles are accessible to non-professionals.
External links
• Volcanoes (http://www.dmoz.org/Science/Earth_Sciences/Geology/Volcanoes/) at the Open Directory
Project
• Volcano Eruptions, Ancient & Modern (http://www.life.com/image/first/in-gallery/22994/
volcano-eruptions-ancient--modern) slideshow by Life magazine
• Volcano (http://www.fema.gov/hazard/volcano/index.shtm), U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency
FEMA
• Volcano World (http://volcano.oregonstate.edu/)
scale climate applications were originally created by Syukuro Manabe and Kirk Bryan at the Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey.[1] These computationally intensive numerical models are based on
the integration of a variety of fluid dynamical, chemical, and sometimes biological equations.
History
In 1956, Norman Phillips developed a mathematical model which could realistically depict monthly and seasonal
patterns in the troposphere, which became the first successful climate model.[2] [3] Following Phillips's work, several
groups began working to create general circulation models.[4] The first general circulation climate model that
combined both oceanic and atmospheric processes was developed in the late 1960s at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory.[5] By the early 1980s, the United States' National Center for Atmospheric Research had
developed the Community Atmosphere Model; this model has been continuously refined into the 2000s.[6] In 1986,
efforts began to initialize and model soil and vegetation types, which led to more realistic forecasts.[7] Coupled
ocean-atmosphere climate models such as the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research's HadCM3 model
are currently being used as inputs for climate change studies.[4] The importance of gravity waves was neglected
within these models until the mid 1980s. Now, gravity waves are required within global climate models in order to
properly simulate regional and global scale circulations, though their broad spectrum makes their incorporation
complicated.[8]
Modeling trends
A recent trend in GCMs is to apply them as components of Earth System Models, e.g. by coupling to ice sheet
models for the dynamics of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and one or more chemical transport models
(CTMs) for species important to climate. Thus a carbon CTM may allow a GCM to better predict changes in carbon
dioxide concentrations resulting from changes in anthropogenic emissions. In addition, this approach allows
accounting for inter-system feedback: e.g. chemistry-climate models allow the possible effects of climate change on
the recovery of the ozone hole to be studied.[9]
Climate prediction uncertainties depend on uncertainties in chemical, physical, and social models (see IPCC
scenarios below).[10] Progress has been made in incorporating more realistic chemistry and physics in the models,
but significant uncertainties and unknowns remain, especially regarding the future course of human population,
industry, and technology.
Note that many simpler levels of climate model exist; some are of only heuristic interest, while others continue to be
scientifically relevant.
Global climate model 200
Model structure
Three-dimensional (more properly four-dimensional) GCMs discretise the equations for fluid motion and integrate
these forward in time. They also contain parametrisations for processes - such as convection - that occur on scales
too small to be resolved directly. More sophisticated models may include representations of the carbon and other
cycles.
A simple general circulation model (SGCM), a minimal GCM, consists of a dynamical core that relates material
properties such as temperature to dynamical properties such as pressure and velocity. Examples are programs that
solve the primitive equations, given energy input into the model, and energy dissipation in the form of
scale-dependent friction, so that atmospheric waves with the highest wavenumbers are the ones most strongly
attenuated. Such models may be used to study atmospheric processes within a simplified framework but are not
suitable for future climate projections.
Atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) model the atmosphere (and typically contain a land-surface model as well) and
impose sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A large amount of information including model documentation is available
from AMIP.[11] They may include atmospheric chemistry.
• AGCMs consist of a dynamical core which integrates the equations of fluid motion, typically for:
• surface pressure
• horizontal components of velocity in layers
• temperature and water vapor in layers
• There is generally a radiation code, split into solar/short wave and terrestrial/infra-red/long wave
• Parametrizations are used to include the effects of various processes. All modern AGCMs include
parameterizations for:
• convection
• land surface processes, albedo and hydrology
• cloud cover
A GCM contains a number of prognostic equations that are stepped forward in time (typically winds, temperature,
moisture, and surface pressure) together with a number of diagnostic equations that are evaluated from the
simultaneous values of the variables. As an example, pressure at any height can be diagnosed by applying the
hydrostatic equation to the predicted surface pressure and the predicted values of temperature between the surface
and the height of interest. The pressure diagnosed in this way then is used to compute the pressure gradient force in
the time-dependent equation for the winds.
Oceanic GCMs (OGCMs) model the ocean (with fluxes from the atmosphere imposed) and may or may not contain
a sea ice model. For example, the standard resolution of HadOM3 is 1.25 degrees in latitude and longitude, with 20
vertical levels, leading to approximately 1,500,000 variables.
Coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs (AOGCMs) (e.g. HadCM3, GFDL CM2.X) combine the two models. They
thus have the advantage of removing the need to specify fluxes across the interface of the ocean surface. These
models are the basis for sophisticated model predictions of future climate, such as are discussed by the IPCC.
AOGCMs represent the pinnacle of complexity in climate models and internalise as many processes as possible.
They are the only tools that could provide detailed regional predictions of future climate change. However, they are
still under development. The simpler models are generally susceptible to simple analysis and their results are
generally easy to understand. AOGCMs, by contrast, are often nearly as hard to analyse as the real climate system.
Global climate model 201
Model grids
The fluid equations for AGCMs are discretised using either the finite difference method or the spectral method. For
finite differences, a grid is imposed on the atmosphere. The simplest grid uses constant angular grid spacing (i.e., a
latitude / longitude grid), however, more sophisticated non-rectantangular grids (e.g., icohedral) and grids of variable
resolution[12] are more often used.[13] The "LMDz" model can be arranged to give high resolution over any given
section of the planet. HadGEM1 (and other ocean models) use an ocean grid with higher resolution in the tropics to
help resolve processes believed to be important for ENSO. Spectral models generally use a gaussian grid, because of
the mathematics of transformation between spectral and grid-point space. Typical AGCM resolutions are between 1
and 5 degrees in latitude or longitude: the Hadley Centre model HadCM3, for example, uses 3.75 in longitude and
2.5 degrees in latitude, giving a grid of 96 by 73 points (96 x 72 for some variables); and has 19 levels in the vertical.
This results in approximately 500,000 "basic" variables, since each grid point has four variables (u,v, T, Q), though a
full count would give more (clouds; soil levels). HadGEM1 uses a grid of 1.875 degrees in longitude and 1.25 in
latitude in the atmosphere; HiGEM, a high-resolution variant, uses 1.25 x 0.83 degrees respectively.[14] These
resolutions are lower than is typically used for weather forecasting.[15] Ocean resolutions tend to be higher, for
example HadCM3 has 6 ocean grid points per atmospheric grid point in the horizontal.
For a standard finite difference model, uniform gridlines converge towards the poles. This would lead to
computational instabilities (see CFL condition) and so the model variables must be filtered along lines of latitude
close to the poles. Ocean models suffer from this problem too, unless a rotated grid is used in which the North Pole
is shifted onto a nearby landmass. Spectral models do not suffer from this problem. There are experiments using
geodesic grids[16] and icosahedral grids, which (being more uniform) do not have pole-problems. Another approach
to solving the grid spacing problem is to deform a Cartesian cube such that it covers the surface of a sphere.[17]
Flux correction
Early generations of AOGCMs required a somewhat ad hoc process of "flux correction" to achieve a stable climate.
The danger, however, is that a model may need flux corrections because of unrealistically strong feedback processes
that result in a transition to a different climate state. As a result, there has been strong movement away from the use
of flux corrections, and the vast majority of models used in the current round of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change do not use them. The model improvements that now make flux corrections unnecessary are various,
but include improved ocean physics, improved resolution in both atmosphere and ocean, and more physically
consistent coupling between atmosphere and ocean models.
Convection
Moist convection causes the release of latent heat and is important to the Earth's energy budget. Convection occurs
on too small a scale to be resolved by climate models, and hence must be parameterised. This has been done since
the earliest days of climate modelling, in the 1950s. Akio Arakawa did much of the early work and variants of his
scheme are still used [18] although there is a variety of different schemes now in use [19] [20] [21]. The behavior of
clouds is still poorly understood and is parametrized. [22].
Global climate model 202
Output variables
Most models include software to diagnose a wide range of variables for comparison with observations or study of
atmospheric processes. An example is the 1.5 metre temperature, which is the standard height for near-surface
observations of air temperature. This temperature is not directly predicted from the model but is deduced from the
surface and lowest-model-layer temperatures. Other software is used for creating plots and animations.
Future scenarios do not include unknowable events - for example, volcanic eruptions or changes in solar forcing.
These effects are believed to be small in comparison to GHG forcing in the long term, but large volcanic eruptions,
for example, are known to exert a temporary cooling effect.
Human emissions of GHGs are an external input to the models, although it would be possible to couple in an
economic model to provide these as well. Atmospheric GHG levels are usually supplied as an input, though it is
possible to include a carbon cycle model including land vegetation and oceanic processes to calculate GHG levels.
Emissions scenarios
For the six SRES marker scenarios, IPCC (2007:7-8) gave a "best estimate" of global mean temperature increase
(2090-2099 relative to the period 1980-1999) that ranged from 1.8 °C to 4.0 °C. Over the same time period, the
"likely" range (greater than 66% probability, based on expert judgement) for these scenarios was for a global mean
temperature increase of between 1.1 and 6.4 °C.[26]
Pope (2008) described a study where climate change projections were made using several different emission
scenarios.[27] In a scenario where global emissions start to decrease by 2010 and then decline at a sustained rate of
3% per year, the likely global average temperature increase was predicted to be 1.7 °C above pre-industrial levels by
2050, rising to around 2 °C by 2100. In a projection designed to simulate a future where no efforts are made to
reduce global emissions, the likely rise in global average temperature was predicted to be 5.5 °C by 2100. A rise as
Global climate model 203
over land.
• In Southern Ocean mid-latitudes, the non-flux-adjusted models overestimate the magnitude of
January-minus-July temperature differences by ~5 K due to an overestimate of summer (January)
near-surface temperature. This error is common to five of the eight non-flux-adjusted models.
• Over Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude land areas, zonal mean differences between July and January
temperatures simulated by the non-flux-adjusted models show a greater spread (positive and negative) about
observed values than results from the flux-adjusted models.
• The ability of coupled GCMs to simulate a reasonable seasonal cycle is a necessary condition for
confidence in their prediction of long-term climatic changes (such as global warming), but it is not a
sufficient condition unless the seasonal cycle and long-term changes involve similar climatic processes.
• Coupled climate models do not simulate with reasonable accuracy clouds and some related hydrological processes
(in particular those involving upper tropospheric humidity). Problems in the simulation of clouds and upper
tropospheric humidity, remain worrisome because the associated processes account for most of the uncertainty in
climate model simulations of anthropogenic change.
The precise magnitude of future changes in climate is still uncertain [38]; for the end of the 21st century (2071 to
2100), for SRES scenario A2, the change of global average SAT change from AOGCMs compared with 1961 to
1990 is +3.0 °C (4.8 °F) and the range is +1.3 to +4.5 °C (+2 to +7.2 °F).
Forecasts of climate change are inevitably uncertain. Even the degree of uncertainty is uncertain, a problem that
stems from the fact that these climate models do not necessarily span the full range of known climate system
behavior. [39]
Computations involved
Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and
ice. They are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the climate system to projections of future
climate.
All climate models take account of incoming energy as short wave electromagnetic radiation, chiefly visible and
short-wave (near) infrared, as well as outgoing energy as long wave (far) infrared electromagnetic radiation from the
earth. Any imbalance results in a change in temperature.
The most talked-about models of recent years have been those relating temperature to emissions of carbon dioxide
(see greenhouse gas). These models project an upward trend in the surface temperature record, as well as a more
rapid increase in temperature at higher altitudes.[43]
Three (or more properly, four since time is also considered) dimensional GCM's discretise the equations for fluid
motion and energy transfer and integrate these over time. They also contain parametrisations for processes—such as
convection—that occur on scales too small to be resolved directly.
Atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) model the atmosphere and impose sea surface temperatures as boundary conditions.
Coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs (AOGCMs, e.g. HadCM3, EdGCM, GFDL CM2.X, ARPEGE-Climat[44] )
combine the two models.
Models can range from relatively simple to quite complex:
• A simple radiant heat transfer model that treats the earth as a single point and averages outgoing energy
• this can be expanded vertically (radiative-convective models), or horizontally
• finally, (coupled) atmosphere–ocean–sea ice global climate models discretise and solve the full equations for
mass and energy transfer and radiant exchange.
This is not a full list; for example "box models" can be written to treat flows across and within ocean basins.
Furthermore, other types of modelling can be interlinked, such as land use, allowing researchers to predict the
interaction between climate and ecosystems.
Box models
Box models are simplified versions of complex systems, reducing them to boxes (or reservoirs) linked by fluxes.
The boxes are assumed to be mixed homogeneously. Within a given box, the concentration of any chemical species
is therefore uniform. However, the abundance of a species within a given box may vary as a function of time due to
the input to (or loss from) the box or due to the production, consumption or decay of this species within the box.
Simple box models, i.e. box model with a small number of boxes whose properties (e.g. their volume) do not change
with time, are often useful to derive analytical formulas describing the dynamics and steady-state abundance of a
species. More complex box models are usually solved using numerical techniques.
Box models are used extensively to model environmental systems or ecosystems and in studies of ocean circulation
and the carbon cycle.[45]
Global climate model 207
Zero-dimensional models
A very simple model of the radiative equilibrium of the Earth is:
where
• the left hand side represents the incoming energy from the Sun
• the right hand side represents the outgoing energy from the Earth, calculated from the Stefan-Boltzmann law
assuming a constant radiative temperature, T, that is to be found,
and
• S is the solar constant - the incoming solar radiation per unit area—about 1367 W·m−2
• is the Earth's average albedo, measured to be 0.3.[46] [47]
• r is Earth's radius—approximately 6.371×106m
• π is the mathematical constant (3.141...)
• is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant—approximately 5.67×10−8 J·K−4·m−2·s−1
• is the effective emissivity of earth, about 0.612
The constant πr2 can be factored out, giving
This yields an average earth temperature of 288 K (15 °C; 59 °F).[48] This is because the above equation represents
the effective radiative temperature of the Earth (including the clouds and atmosphere). The use of effective
emissivity and albedo account for the greenhouse effect.
This very simple model is quite instructive. For example, it easily determines the effect on average earth temperature
of changes in solar constant or change of albedo or effective earth emissivity. Using the simple formula, the percent
change of the average amount of each parameter, considered independently, to cause a one degree Celsius change in
steady-state average earth temperature is as follows:
• Solar constant 1.4%
• Albedo 3.3%
• Effective emissivity 1.4%
The average emissivity of the earth is readily estimated from available data. The emissivities of terrestrial surfaces
are all in the range of 0.96 to 0.99[49] [50] (except for some small desert areas which may be as low as 0.7). Clouds,
however, which cover about half of the earth’s surface, have an average emissivity of about 0.5[51] (which must be
reduced by the fourth power of the ratio of cloud absolute temperature to average earth absolute temperature) and an
average cloud temperature of about 258 K (−15 °C; 5 °F).[52] Taking all this properly into account results in an
effective earth emissivity of about 0.64 (earth average temperature 285 K (12 °C; 53 °F)).
This simple model readily determines the effect of changes in solar output or change of earth albedo or effective
earth emissivity on average earth temperature. It says nothing, however about what might cause these things to
change. Zero-dimensional models do not address the temperature distribution on the earth or the factors that move
energy about the earth.
Global climate model 208
Radiative-Convective Models
The zero-dimensional model above, using the solar constant and given average earth temperature, determines the
effective earth emissivity of long wave radiation emitted to space. This can be refined in the vertical to a
zero-dimensional radiative-convective model, which considers two processes of energy transport:
• upwelling and downwelling radiative transfer through atmospheric layers that both absorb and emit infrared
radiation
• upward transport of heat by convection (especially important in the lower troposphere).
The radiative-convective models have advantages over the simple model: they can determine the effects of varying
greenhouse gas concentrations on effective emissivity and therefore the surface temperature. But added parameters
are needed to determine local emissivity and albedo and address the factors that move energy about the earth.
Links:
• "Effect of Ice-Albedo Feedback on Global Sensitivity in a One-Dimensional Radiative-Convective Climate
Model" [53]
• http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/258.htm
Climate modellers
A climate modeller is a person who designs, develops, implements, tests, maintains or exploits climate models.
There are three major types of institutions where a climate modeller may be found:
• In a national meteorological service. Most national weather services have at least a climatology section.
• In a university. Departments that may have climate modellers on staff include atmospheric sciences, meteorology,
climatology, or geography, amongst others.
• In national or international research laboratories specialising in this field, such as the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR, in Boulder, Colorado, USA), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
(GFDL, in Princeton, New Jersey, USA), the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (in Exeter, UK),
the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, or the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL in
Paris, France). The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), hosted by the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO), coordinates research activities on climate modelling worldwide.
Global climate model 209
References
[1] ": The First Climate Model" (http:/ / celebrating200years. noaa. gov/ breakthroughs/ climate_model/ welcome. html). NOAA 200th
Celebration. 2007. . Retrieved 2010-04-20.
[2] Phillips, Norman A. (April 1956). "The general circulation of the atmosphere: a numerical experiment". Quarterly Journal of the Royal
Meteorological Society 82 (352): 123–154.
[3] Cox, John D. (2002). Storm Watchers. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.. p. 210. ISBN 047138108X.
[4] Lynch, Peter (2006). "The ENIAC Integrations". The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction. Cambridge University Press.
pp. 206–208. ISBN 9780521857291.
[5] http:/ / celebrating200years. noaa. gov/ breakthroughs/ climate_model/ welcome. html
[6] Collins, William D.; et al. (June 2004). "Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0)" (http:/ / www. cesm. ucar.
edu/ models/ atm-cam/ docs/ description/ description. pdf). University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. . Retrieved 2011-01-03.
[7] Xue, Yongkang and Michael J. Fennessey (1996-03-20). "Impact of vegetation properties on U. S. summer weather prediction" (http:/ / www.
geog. ucla. edu/ ~yxue/ pdf/ 1996jgr. pdf). Journal of Geophysical Research (American Geophysical Union) 101 (D3): 7419. . Retrieved
2011-01-06.
[8] McGuffie, K. and A. Henderson-Sellers (2005). A climate modelling primer. John Wiley and Sons. p. 188. ISBN 9780470857519.
[9] Allen, Jeannie (2004-02). "Tango in the Atmosphere: Ozone and Climate Change" (http:/ / www. theozonehole. com/ climate. htm). NASA
Earth Observatory. . Retrieved 2010-04-20.
[10] Ken, Richard A (2001-04-13). "Global Warming: Rising Global Temperature, Rising Uncertainty" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/
content/ full/ 292/ 5515/ 192). Science 292 (5515): 192–194. doi:10.1126/science.292.5515.192. PMID 11305301. . Retrieved 2010-04-20.
[11] "Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project" (http:/ / www-pcmdi. llnl. gov/ projects/ amip/ index. php). The Program for Climate Model
Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. . Retrieved 2010-04-21.
[12] C. Jablonowski , M. Herzog , J. E. Penner , R. C. Oehmke , Q. F. Stout , B. van Leer, "Adaptive Grids for Weather and Climate Models"
(http:/ / citeseerx. ist. psu. edu/ viewdoc/ summary?doi=10. 1. 1. 60. 5091) (2004). See also Christiane Jablonowski, Adaptive Mesh
Refinement (AMR) for Weather and Climate Models (http:/ / www-personal. umich. edu/ ~cjablono/ amr. html) page (accessed July 24, 2010)
[13] NCAR Command Language documentation: Non-uniform grids that NCL can contour (http:/ / www. ncl. ucar. edu/ Document/ Graphics/
contour_grids. shtml) (accessed July 24, 2010)
[14] "High Resolution Global Environmental Modelling (HiGEM) home page" (http:/ / higem. nerc. ac. uk/ ). Natural Environment Research
Council and Met Office. May 18 2004. . Retrieved October 5 2010.
[15] "Mesoscale modelling" (http:/ / www. metoffice. gov. uk/ science/ creating/ hoursahead/ mesoscale. html). . Retrieved 5 October 2010.
[16] "Climate Model Will Be First To Use A Geodesic Grid" (http:/ / www. unisci. com/ stories/ 20013/ 0924011. htm). Daly University Science
News. 24 September 2001. . Retrieved 3 May 2011.
[17] "Gridding the sphere" (http:/ / mitgcm. org/ projects/ cubedsphere/ ). MIT GCM. . Retrieved 9 September 2010.
[18] http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ arakawa. htm
[19] http:/ / grads. iges. org/ reps/ rep27/ colarep27. html
Global climate model 210
[20] http:/ / www-pcmdi. llnl. gov/ projects/ modeldoc/ amip/ 10Tbl2. 10. html
[21] http:/ / rainbow. llnl. gov/ projects/ modeldoc/ cmip/ table4. html
[22] http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ GCM. htm
[23] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig9-3. htm
[24] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 348. htm#fig93
[25] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig9-5. htm
[26] IPCC (2007). "Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report. htm)"]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp. 104. .
Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[27] Pope, V. (2008). "Met Office: The scientific evidence for early action on climate change" (http:/ / www. metoffice. gov. uk/ climatechange/
policymakers/ action/ evidence. html). Met Office website. . Retrieved 2009-03-07.
[28] Sokolov, A.P. et al. (2009). "Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without Policy) and
Climate Parameters" (http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ perlserv/ ?request=get-abstract& doi=10. 1175/ 2009JCLI2863. 1). Journal of Climate 22
(19): 5175–5204. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2863.1. . Retrieved 2009-01-12.
[29] "Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ figspm-4. htm). .
[30] "Simulated global warming 1860–2000" (http:/ / www. hadleycentre. gov. uk/ research/ hadleycentre/ pubs/ talks/ sld017. html). .
[31] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ figspm-4. htm
[32] http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20060420125451/ http:/ / www4. nationalacademies. org/ news. nsf/ isbn/ 0309068916?OpenDocument
[33] http:/ / liftoff. msfc. nasa. gov/ academy/ space/ greenhouse. html
[34] http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ amsonline/ ?request=get-document& doi=10. 1175%2FJCLI3799. 1
[35] http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ amsonline/ ?request=get-abstract& doi=10. 1175%2F1520-0442(2000)013%3C0538:TSOTTH%3E2. 0.
CO%3B2
[36] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 308. htm
[37] http:/ / pubs. giss. nasa. gov/ abstracts/ 2000/ CoveyAbeOuchi. html
[38] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 339. htm
[39] http:/ / epw. senate. gov/ repwhitepapers/ ClimateChange. pdf
[40] http:/ / www. ecmwf. int/ index_forecasts. html
[41] http:/ / www. metoffice. gov. uk/ research/ nwp/ numerical/ operational/ index. html
[42] http:/ / www-das. uwyo. edu/ ~geerts/ cwx/ notes/ chap12/ nwp_gcm. html
[43] IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 Chapter 10: Global Climate Projections (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg1/ en/ ch10. html)
[44] http:/ / www. cnrm. meteo. fr/ gmgec/ site_engl/ arpege/ arpege_en. html
[45] Sarmiento, J.L.; Toggweiler, J.R. (1984). "A new model for the role of the oceans in determining atmospheric P CO 2" (http:/ / www.
nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v308/ n5960/ abs/ 308621a0. html). Nature 308 (5960): 621–4. doi:10.1038/308621a0. .
[46] Goode, P. R.; et al. (2001). "Earthshine Observations of the Earth’s Reflectance". Geophys. Res. Lett. 28 (9): 1671–4.
Bibcode 2001GeoRL..28.1671G. doi:10.1029/2000GL012580.
[47] "Scientists Watch Dark Side of the Moon to Monitor Earth's Climate" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ sci_soc/ prrl/ prrl0113. html). American
Geophysical Union. April 17, 2001. .
[48] http:/ / eospso. gsfc. nasa. gov/ ftp_docs/ lithographs/ CERES_litho. pdf
[49] http:/ / www. icess. ucsb. edu/ modis/ EMIS/ html/ seawater. html
[50] Jin M, Liang S (15 June 2006). "An Improved Land Surface Emissivity Parameter for Land Surface Models Using Global Remote Sensing
Observations" (http:/ / www. glue. umd. edu/ ~sliang/ papers/ Jin2006. emissivity. pdf). J. Climate 19 (12): 2867–81.
doi:10.1175/JCLI3720.1. .
[51] T.R. Shippert, S.A. Clough, P.D. Brown, W.L. Smith, R.O. Knuteson, and S.A. Ackerman. "Spectral Cloud Emissivities from
LBLRTM/AERI QME" (http:/ / www. arm. gov/ publications/ proceedings/ conf08/ extended_abs/ shippert_tr. pdf). Proceedings of the Eighth
Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Science Team Meeting March 1998 Tucson, Arizona. .
[52] A.G. Gorelik, V. Sterljadkin, E. Kadygrov, and A. Koldaev. "Microwave and IR Radiometry for Estimation of Atmospheric Radiation
Balance and Sea Ice Formation" (http:/ / www. arm. gov/ publications/ proceedings/ conf11/ extended_abs/ gorelik_ag. pdf). Proceedings of
the Eleventh Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Science Team Meeting March 2001 Atlanta, Georgia. .
[53] doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1980)037<0545:EOIAFO>2.0.CO;2
This citation will be automatically completed in the next few minutes. You can jump the queue or expand by hand (http:/ / en. wikipedia. org/
wiki/ Template:cite_doi/ 10. 1175. 2f1520-0469. 281980. 29037. 3c0545%3aeoiafo. 3e2. 0. co. 3b2?preload=Template:Cite_doi/ preload&
editintro=Template:Cite_doi/ editintro& action=edit)
[54] http:/ / nomads. ncdc. noaa. gov/
[55] http:/ / dapper. pmel. noaa. gov/ dchart/ index. html?cid=AAAAHg@@
Global climate model 211
External links
• Climate Change Prediction: A challenging scientific problem (2005) (http://www.iop.org/activity/policy/
Publications/file_4147.pdf). By Prof. A.J. Thorpe. Explains how predictions of future climate change are made
using climate models.
• Climate Simulations for 1951–2050 with a Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Model (http://stephenschneider.
stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/SunHansenJOC.pdf) by Sun and Hansen (2003)
• History of Global Climate Modelling (http://www.aip.org/history/climate/GCM.htm)
• E-Media from GFDL's CCVP Group (http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/e-media-gfdl-ccvp-group-main). Includes
videos, animations, podcasts and transcripts on climate models.
• (http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~fms) GFDL's Flexible Modeling System containing code for the climate models.
• Dapper/DChart (http://dapper.pmel.noaa.gov/dchart/index.html?cid=AAAAHg@@) - plot and download
model data referenced by the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change.
• Chapter 8: Climate Models and Their Evaluation (http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/
ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf). The IPCC Working Group I Fourth Assessment Report (2007).
• CCSP, 2008: Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations (http://www.climatescience.gov/
Library/sap/sap3-1/final-report/default.htm) A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the
Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Bader D.C., C. Covey, W.J. Gutowski Jr., I.M. Held, K.E. Kunkel,
R.L. Miller, R.T. Tokmakian and M.H. Zhang (Authors)]. Department of Energy, Office of Biological and
Environmental Research, Washington, D.C., USA, 124 pp.
• BBC News: Models 'key to climate forecasts' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6320515.stm). Dr Vicky
Pope of the Hadley Centre explains how computer models are used to predict the day-to-day weather and changes
to the climate (2007).
• The scientific basis for projections of climate change (in a nutshell) (http://uc.princeton.edu/main/index.php/
component/content/article/3181). Video of a lecture given at Princeton University by Isaac Held, Professor of
Geosciences and Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory (GFDL). February 26, 2008.
• (IPCC 2001 section 8.3) (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/313.htm) — on model hierarchy
• (IPCC 2001 section 8) (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/308.htm) — much information on
coupled GCM's
• Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/projects/modeldoc/cmip/index.html)
• On the Radiative and Dynamical Feedbacks over the Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue (http://ams.allenpress.
com/amsonline/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175/2786.1)
• Basic Radiation Calculations (http://www.aip.org/history/climate/Radmath.htm) — The Discovery of Global
Warming
• Henderson-Sellers, A.; Robinson, P. J. (1999). Contemporary Climatology (http://www.pearsoned.co.uk/
Bookshop/detail.asp?item=100000000002249). New York: Longman. ISBN 0-582-27631-4.
History of climate change science 212
Paleoclimate change and the natural greenhouse effect, early and mid 1800s
Prior to the 18th century, scientists had not suspected that prehistoric
climates were different from the modern period. By the late 18th
century, geologists found evidence of a succession of geological ages
with changes in climate. There were various competing theories about
these changes, and James Hutton, whose ideas of cyclic change over
huge periods of time were later dubbed uniformitarianism, was among
those who found signs of past glacial activity in places too warm for
glaciers in modern times.[1]
Although he wasn't a scientist, in 1815 Jean-Pierre Perraudin described Erratics, boulders deposited by glaciers far from
for the first time how glaciers might be responsible for the giant any existing glaciers, led geologists to the
boulders seen in alpine valleys. As he hiked in the Val de Bagnes, he conclusion that climate had changed in the past.
noticed giant granite rocks that were scattered around the narrow
valley. He knew that it would take an exceptional force to move such large rocks. He also noticed how glaciers left
stripes on the land, and concluded that it was the ice that had carried the boulders down into the valleys.[2]
His idea was initially met with disbelief. Jean de Charpentier wrote, "I found his hypothesis so extraordinary and
even so extravagant that I considered it as not worth examining or even considering."[3] Despite Charpentier
rejecting his theory, Perraudin eventually convinced Ignaz Venetz that it might be worth studying. Venetz convinced
Charpentier, who in turn convinced the influential scientist Louis Agassiz that the glacial theory had merit.[2]
Agassiz developed a theory of what he termed "Ice Age" — when glaciers covered Europe and much of North
America. In 1837 Agassiz was the first to scientifically propose that the Earth had been subject to a past ice age.[4]
William Buckland had led attempts in Britain to adapt the geological theory of catastrophism to account for erratic
boulders and other "diluvium" as relics of the Biblical flood. This was strongly opposed by Charles Lyell's version of
Hutton's uniformitarianism, and was gradually abandoned by Buckland and other catastrophist geologists. A field
trip to the Alps with Agassiz in October 1838 convinced Buckland that features in Britain had been caused by
glaciation, and both he and Lyell strongly supported the ice age theory which became widely accepted by the
1870s.[1]
In the same general period that scientists first suspected climate change and ice ages, Joseph Fourier, in 1824, found
that Earth's atmosphere kept the planet warmer than would be the case in a vacuum, and he made the first
calculations of the warming effect. Fourier recognized that the atmosphere transmitted visible light waves efficiently
to the earth's surface. The earth then absorbed visible light and emitted infrared radiation in response, but the
atmosphere did not transmit infrared efficiently, which therefore increased surface temperatures. He also suspected
that human activities could influence climate, although he focused primarily on land use changes. In a 1827 paper
Fourier stated, "The establishment and progress of human societies, the action of natural forces, can notably change,
History of climate change science 213
and in vast regions, the state of the surface, the distribution of water and the great movements of the air. Such effects
are able to make to vary, in the course of many centuries, the average degree of heat; because the analytic
expressions contain coefficients relating to the state of the surface and which greatly influence the temperature."[5]
John Tyndall took Fourier's work one step further when he investigated the absorption of heat in different gases.[6]
In July of 1979 the United States National Research Council published a report, [14] concluding (in part):
When it is assumed that the CO2 content of the atmosphere is doubled and statistical thermal equilibrium is
achieved, the more realistic of the modeling efforts predict a global surface warming of between 2°C and
3.5°C, with greater increases at high latitudes. …
… we have tried but have been unable to find any overlooked or underestimated physical effects that could
reduce the currently estimated global warmings due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 to negligible
proportions or reverse them altogether. …
The mainstream news media at the time did not reflect scientific opinion. In 1975, Newsweek magazine published a
story that warned of "ominous signs that the Earth's weather patterns have begun to change," and reported "a drop of
half a degree [Fahrenheit] in average ground temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere between 1945 and 1968."[15]
The article continued by stating that evidence of global cooling was so strong that meteorologists were having "a
History of climate change science 215
hard time keeping up with it."[15] On October 23, 2006, Newsweek issued an update stating that it had been
"spectacularly wrong about the near-term future".[16]
that some warming is inevitable.[17] In June 1988, James E. Hansen Congress, which alerted the public to the dangers
of global warming.
made one of the first assessments that human-caused warming had
already measurably affected global climate.[18]
Assessment reports:
First (1990)
1992 sup.
Second (1995)
Third (2001)
Fourth (2007)
Fifth (2014)
UNFCCC | WMO |
UNEP
Both the UNEP and WMO had followed up on the 1985 Conference with additional meetings. In 1988 the WMO
established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change with the support of the UNEP. The IPCC continues its
work through the present day, and issues a series of Assessment Reports and supplemental reports that describe the
state of scientific understanding at the time each report is prepared. Scientific developments during this period are
discussed in the articles for each Assessment Report.
History of climate change science 216
References
[1] Young, Davis A. (1995). The biblical Flood: a case study of the Church's response to extrabiblical evidence (http:/ / www. bringyou. to/
apologetics/ p82. htm). Grand Rapids, Mich: Eerdmans. ISBN 0-8028-0719-4. . Retrieved 2008-09-16.
[2] Holli Riebeek (28 June 2005). "Paleoclimatology" (http:/ / earthobservatory. nasa. gov/ Features/ Paleoclimatology/ paleoclimatology_intro.
php). NASA. . Retrieved 01 July 2009.
[3] Imbrie, J. and K. P. Imbrie, 1979: Ice Ages, Enslow Publishers: Hillside, New Jersey.
[4] E.P. Evans: The Authorship of the Glacial Theory, North American review. / Volume 145, Issue 368, July 1887 (http:/ / rs6. loc. gov/ cgi-bin/
query/ r?ammem/ ncps:@field(DOCID+ @lit(ABQ7578-0145-13))::|The). Accessed on February 25, 2008.
[5] William Connolley. "Translation by W M Connolley of: Fourier 1827: MEMOIRE sur les temperatures du globe terrestre et des espaces
planetaires" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ fourier_1827/ fourier_1827. html). . Retrieved 18 July 2009.
[6] John Tyndall (1872) "Contributions to molecular physics in the domain of radiant heat" (http:/ / ia341003. us. archive. org/ 0/ items/
contributionsto01tyndgoog/ contributionsto01tyndgoog. djvu)DjVu
[7] David Archer (2009). The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth's Climate. Princeton University Press.
p. 19. ISBN 9780691136547.
[8] Spencer Weart (2003). "The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ co2. htm). The Discovery of Global
Warming. .
[9] Paul R. Ehrlich (1968). The Population Bomb. p. 52.
[10] Peterson, T.C., W.M. Connolley, and J. Fleck (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bull. Amer. Meteor.
Soc. 89: 1325–1337. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.
History of climate change science 217
[11] Science and the Challenges Ahead. Report of the National Science Board (http:/ / www. archive. org/ details/ sciencechallenge00nati). .
[12] W M Connolley. "The 1975 US National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council Report" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/
sci/ iceage/ nas-1975. html). . Retrieved 28 June 2009.
[13] "Declaration of the World Climate Conference" (http:/ / www. dgvn. de/ fileadmin/ user_upload/ DOKUMENTE/ WCC-3/
Declaration_WCC1. pdf). World Meteorological Organization. . Retrieved 28 June 2009.
[14] Report of an Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, July 23-27, 1979, to the Climate Research
Board, Assembly of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Research Council (1979). Carbon Dioxide and Climate:A Scientific
Assessment (http:/ / books. nap. edu/ catalog. php?record_id=12181). Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 0309119103. .
[15] Peter Gwynne (1975). "The Cooling World" (http:/ / www. denisdutton. com/ newsweek_coolingworld. pdf) (PDF). .
[16] Jerry Adler (23 October 2006). "Climate Change: Prediction Perils" (http:/ / www. newsweek. com/ id/ 72481). Newsweek. .
[17] World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) (1986). "Report of the International Conference on the assessment of the role of carbon dioxide
and of other greenhouse gases in climate variations and associated impacts" (http:/ / www. icsu-scope. org/ downloadpubs/ scope29/
statement. html). Villach, Austria. . Retrieved 28 June 2009.
[18] "Statement of Dr. James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies" (http:/ / image. guardian. co. uk/ sys-files/
Environment/ documents/ 2008/ 06/ 23/ ClimateChangeHearing1988. pdf). The Guardian (London). . Retrieved 28 June 2009.
[19] Spencer Weart (2003). "Other Greenhouse Gases" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ othergas. htm). The Discovery of Global
Warming. .
[20] Spencer Weart (2003). "The Discovery of Global Warming" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ ). American Institute of Physics. .
[21] "16 Years of Scientific Assessment in Support of the Climate Convention" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ 10th-anniversary/
anniversary-brochure. pdf). 2004. . Retrieved 28 June 2008.
External links
• Joseph Fourier's 1827 article, Memoire sur les temperatures du globe terrestre et des espaces planetaires (http://
www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/fourier_1827/fourier_1827.html), in French and English, with annotations by
William Connolley
• Svante Arrhenius' April 1896 article, On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the
Ground (http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/1/18/Arrhenius.pdf)
• How Was the Greenhouse Effect Discovered? (http://pastandfutureclimates.blogspot.com/2009/02/
how-was-greenhouse-effect-discovered.html)
Scientific opinion on climate change 218
Synthesis reports
Synthesis reports are assessments of scientific literature that compile the results of a range of stand-alone studies in
order to achieve a broad level of understanding, or to describe the state of knowledge of a given subject.[4]
Statements by organizations
This list of scientific bodies of national or international standing, that have issued formal statements of opinion,
classifies those organizations according to whether they concur with the IPCC view, are non-committal, or dissent
from it.
Academies of Science
• Institut de France,
• of Ghana,
• Leopoldina of Germany,
• of Indonesia,
• of Ireland,
• Accademia nazionale delle scienze of Italy,
• of India,
• of Japan,
• of Kenya,
• of Madagascar,
• of Malaysia,
• of Mexico,
• of Nigeria,
• Royal Society of New Zealand,
• Russian Academy of Sciences,
• of Senegal,
• of South Africa,
• of Sudan,
• Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences,
• of Tanzania,
• of Turkey,
• of Uganda,
• The Royal Society of the United Kingdom,
• of the United States,
• of Zambia,
• and of Zimbabwe.
• 2001-Following the publication of the IPCC Third Assessment Report, seventeen national science academies
issued a joint statement, entitled "The Science of Climate Change", explicitly acknowledging the IPCC position as
representing the scientific consensus on climate change science. The statement, printed in an editorial in the
journal Science on May 18, 2001,[12] was signed by the science academies of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada,
the Caribbean, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden,
Turkey, and the United Kingdom.[13]
• 2005-The national science academies of the G8 nations, plus Brazil, China and India, three of the largest emitters
of greenhouse gases in the developing world, signed a statement on the global response to climate change. The
statement stresses that the scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations
taking prompt action,[14] and explicitly endorsed the IPCC consensus. The eleven signatories were the science
academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the
United States.
• 2007-In preparation for the 33rd G8 summit, the national science academies of the G8+5 nations issued a
declaration referencing the position of the 2005 joint science academies' statement, and acknowledging the
confirmation of their previous conclusion by recent research. Following the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, the
declaration states, "It is unequivocal that the climate is changing, and it is very likely that this is predominantly
caused by the increasing human interference with the atmosphere. These changes will transform the
environmental conditions on Earth unless counter-measures are taken."[15] The thirteen signatories were the
national science academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, India, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South
Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Scientific opinion on climate change 221
• 2008-In preparation for the 34th G8 summit, the national science academies of the G8+5 nations issued a
declaration reiterating the position of the 2005 joint science academies’ statement, and reaffirming “that climate
change is happening and that anthropogenic warming is influencing many physical and biological systems.”
Among other actions, the declaration urges all nations to “(t)ake appropriate economic and policy measures to
accelerate transition to a low carbon society and to encourage and effect changes in individual and national
behaviour.”[16] The thirteen signatories were the same national science academies that issued the 2007 joint
statement.
• 2009-In advance of the UNFCCC negotiations to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009, the national science
academies of the G8+5 nations issued a joint statement declaring, "Climate change and sustainable energy supply
are crucial challenges for the future of humanity. It is essential that world leaders agree on the emission
reductions needed to combat negative consequences of anthropogenic climate change". The statement references
the IPCC's Fourth Assessment of 2007, and asserts that "climate change is happening even faster than previously
estimated; global CO2 emissions since 2000 have been higher than even the highest predictions, Arctic sea ice has
been melting at rates much faster than predicted, and the rise in the sea level has become more rapid."[17] The
thirteen signatories were the same national science academies that issued the 2007 and 2008 joint statements.
InterAcademy Council
As the representative of the world’s scientific and engineering academies,[18] [19] the InterAcademy Council (IAC)
issued a report in 2007 titled Lighting the Way: Toward a Sustainable Energy Future.
Current patterns of energy resources and energy usage are proving detrimental to the long-term welfare of
humanity. The integrity of essential natural systems is already at risk from climate change caused by the
atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases.[20]
Concerted efforts should be mounted for improving energy efficiency and reducing the carbon intensity of the
world economy.[21]
General science
The spatial and temporal fingerprint of warming can be traced to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in
the atmosphere, which are a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale deforestation and other human
activity.[40]
Earth sciences
conjunction with anthropogenic global warming, there is an urgent need for immediate action." The statement then
advocates for strategies "to limit future release of CO2 to the atmosphere and/or enhance removal of excess CO2
from the atmosphere."[45]
precipitation leading to drought. With both rising seas and increasing drought, pressure for human migration
could result on a large scale.[48]
Paleoclimatology
in greenhouse gasses are causing temperatures to rise…The scientific understanding of climate change is now
sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action….Minimizing the amount of this carbon dioxide
reaching the atmosphere presents a huge challenge but must be a global priority.[59]
Human health
Miscellaneous
Non-committal statements
Institute.[100]
In March 2010, AIPG’s Executive Director issued a statement regarding polarization of opinions on climate change
within the membership and announced that the AIPG Executive had made a decision to cease publication of articles
and opinion pieces concerning climate change in AIPG’s news journal, The Professional Geologist.[101] The
Executive Director noted that “the question of anthropogenicity of climate change is contentious.”[102]
STATS, 2007
In 2007, Harris Interactive surveyed 489 randomly selected members of either the American Meteorological Society
or the American Geophysical Union for the Statistical Assessment Service (STATS) at George Mason University.
The survey found 97% agreed that global temperatures have increased during the past 100 years; 84% say they
personally believe human-induced warming is occurring, and 74% agree that “currently available scientific evidence”
substantiates its occurrence. Only 5% believe that that human activity does not contribute to greenhouse warming;
and 84% believe global climate change poses a moderate to very great danger.[110] [111]
Oreskes, 2004
A 2004 article by geologist and historian of science Naomi Oreskes summarized a study of the scientific literature on
climate change.[112] The essay concluded that there is a scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate
change. The author analyzed 928 abstracts of papers from refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, listed
with the keywords "global climate change". Oreskes divided the abstracts into six categories: explicit endorsement of
the consensus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigation proposals, methods, paleoclimate analysis, and rejection of
the consensus position. 75% of the abstracts were placed in the first three categories, thus either explicitly or
implicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, thus taking no position on current
anthropogenic climate change; none of the abstracts disagreed with the consensus position, which the author found to
be "remarkable". According to the report, "authors evaluating impacts, developing methods, or studying
paleoclimatic change might believe that current climate change is natural. However, none of these papers argued that
point."
One of the questions asked in the survey was "To what extent do you agree or disagree that climate change is mostly
the result of anthropogenic causes?", with a value of 1 indicating strongly agree and a value of 7 indicating strongly
disagree. The results showed a mean of 3.62, with 50 responses (9.4%) indicating "strongly agree" and 54 responses
(9.7%) indicating "strongly disagree". The same survey indicates a 72% to 20% endorsement of the IPCC reports as
accurate, and a 15% to 80% rejection of the thesis that "there is enough uncertainty about the phenomenon of global
warming that there is no need for immediate policy decisions."
...a response of a value of 1 indicates a strong level of agreement with the statement of certainty that global
warming is already underway or will occur without modification to human behavior... the mean response for
the entire sample was 3.3 indicating a slight tendency towards the position that global warming has indeed
been detected and is underway.... Regarding global warming as being a possible future event, there is a higher
expression of confidence as indicated by the mean of 2.6.
Scientific consensus
A question which frequently arises in popular discussion of climate change is whether there is a scientific
consensus.[124] Several scientific organizations have explicitly used the term "consensus" in their statements:
• American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2006: "The conclusions in this statement reflect the
scientific consensus represented by, for example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the Joint
National Academies' statement."[32]
• US National Academy of Sciences: "In the judgment of most climate scientists, Earth’s warming in recent decades
has been caused primarily by human activities that have increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere. ... On climate change, [the National Academies’ reports] have assessed consensus findings on the
science..."[125]
• Joint Science Academies' statement, 2005: "We recognise the international scientific consensus of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)."[126]
• Joint Science Academies' statement, 2001: "The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
represents the consensus of the international scientific community on climate change science. We recognise IPCC
as the world’s most reliable source of information on climate change and its causes, and we endorse its method of
achieving this consensus."[13]
• American Meteorological Society, 2003: "The nature of science is such that there is rarely total agreement among
scientists. Individual scientific statements and papers—the validity of some of which has yet to be assessed
adequately—can be exploited in the policy debate and can leave the impression that the scientific community is
Scientific opinion on climate change 240
sharply divided on issues where there is, in reality, a strong scientific consensus.... IPCC assessment reports are
prepared at approximately five-year intervals by a large international group of experts who represent the broad
range of expertise and perspectives relevant to the issues. The reports strive to reflect a consensus evaluation of
the results of the full body of peer-reviewed research.... They provide an analysis of what is known and not
known, the degree of consensus, and some indication of the degree of confidence that can be placed on the
various statements and conclusions."[127]
• Network of African Science Academies: “A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global
scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil
fuels is largely responsible for driving this change.”[24]
• International Union for Quaternary Research, 2008: "INQUA recognizes the international scientific consensus of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)."[128]
• Australian Coral Reef Society,[129] 2006: "There is almost total consensus among experts that the earth’s climate
is changing as a result of the build-up of greenhouse gases.... There is broad scientific consensus that coral reefs
are heavily affected by the activities of man and there are significant global influences that can make reefs more
vulnerable such as global warming...."[130]
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External links
• Robin Lloyd (23 February 2011). "Why Are Americans So Ill-Informed about Climate Change?" (http://www.
scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=why-are-americans-so-ill). Scientific American. Retrieved 31 March
2011.
American people."[29] "So many people have a vested interest in this global-warming thing—all these big labs and
research and stuff. The idea is to frighten the public, to get money to study it more."[30]
• William Happer, physicist specializing in optics and spectroscopy, Princeton University: "all the evidence I see is
that the current warming of the climate is just like past warmings. In fact, it's not as much as past warmings yet,
and it probably has little to do with carbon dioxide, just like past warmings had little to do with carbon
dioxide"[31]
• William Kininmonth, meteorologist, former Australian delegate to World Meteorological Organization
Commission for Climatology: "There has been a real climate change over the late nineteenth and twentieth
centuries that can be attributed to natural phenomena. Natural variability of the climate system has been
underestimated by IPCC and has, to now, dominated human influences."[32]
• David Legates, associate professor of geography and director of the Center for Climatic Research, University of
Delaware: "About half of the warming during the 20th century occurred prior to the 1940s, and natural variability
accounts for all or nearly all of the warming."[33]
• Tad Murty, oceanographer; adjunct professor, Departments of Civil Engineering and Earth Sciences, University
of Ottawa: global warming "is the biggest scientific hoax being perpetrated on humanity. There is no global
warming due to human anthropogenic activities. The atmosphere hasn’t changed much in 280 million years, and
there have always been cycles of warming and cooling. The Cretaceous period was the warmest on earth. You
could have grown tomatoes at the North Pole"[34]
• Tim Patterson, Pubs [35] paleoclimatologist and Professor of Geology at Carleton University in Canada: "There is
no meaningful correlation between CO2 levels and Earth's temperature over this [geologic] time frame. In fact,
when CO2 levels were over ten times higher than they are now, about 450 million years ago, the planet was in the
depths of the absolute coldest period in the last half billion years. On the basis of this evidence, how could anyone
still believe that the recent relatively small increase in CO2 levels would be the major cause of the past century's
modest warming?"[36] [37]
• Ian Plimer,Pubs [38] Professor emeritus of Mining Geology, The University of Adelaide: "We only have to have
one volcano burping and we have changed the whole planetary climate... It looks as if carbon dioxide actually
follows climate change rather than drives it".[39]
• Tom Segalstad, head of the Geology Museum at the University of Oslo: "The IPCC's temperature curve (the
so-called 'hockey stick' curve) must be in error...human influence on the 'Greenhouse Effect' is minimal
(maximum 4%). Anthropogenic CO2 amounts to 4% of the ~2% of the "Greenhouse Effect", hence an influence
of less than 1 permil of the Earth's total natural 'Greenhouse Effect' (some 0.03 °C of the total ~33 °C)."[40]
• Nicola Scafetta, Pubs [41] research scientist in the physics department at Duke University, wrote a booklet
proposing a phenomenological theory of climate change based on the physical properties of the data. Scafetta
describes his conclusions writing "At least 60% of the warming of the Earth observed since 1970 appears to be
induced by natural cycles which are present in the solar system. A climatic stabilization or cooling until
2030–2040 is forecast by the phenomenological model."[42] [43]
• Nir Shaviv, Pubs [44] astrophysicist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem: "[T]he truth is probably somewhere in
between [the common view and that of skeptics], with natural causes probably being more important over the
past century, whereas anthropogenic causes will probably be more dominant over the next century. ... [A]bout
2/3's (give or take a third or so) of the warming [over the past century] should be attributed to increased solar
activity and the remaining to anthropogenic causes." His opinion is based on some proxies of solar activity over
the past few centuries.[45]
• Fred Singer, Pubs [46] Professor emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia: "The
greenhouse effect is real. However, the effect is minute, insignificant, and very difficult to detect."[47] [48] “It’s not
automatically true that warming is bad, I happen to believe that warming is good, and so do many economists.”[49]
• Willie Soon, astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics: "[T]here's increasingly strong
evidence that previous research conclusions, including those of the United Nations and the United States
List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming 248
government concerning 20th century warming, may have been biased by underestimation of natural climate
variations. The bottom line is that if these variations are indeed proven true, then, yes, natural climate fluctuations
could be a dominant factor in the recent warming. In other words, natural factors could be more important than
previously assumed."[50]
• Roy Spencer, principal research scientist, University of Alabama in Huntsville: "I predict that in the coming
years, there will be a growing realization among the global warming research community that most of the climate
change we have observed is natural, and that mankind’s role is relatively minor".[51]
• Philip Stott, professor emeritus of biogeography at the University of London: "...the myth is starting to implode.
... Serious new research at The Max Planck Society has indicated that the sun is a far more significant factor..."[52]
• Henrik Svensmark, Pubs [53] Danish National Space Center: "Our team ... has discovered that the relatively few
cosmic rays that reach sea-level play a big part in the everyday weather. They help to make low-level clouds,
which largely regulate the Earth’s surface temperature. During the 20th Century the influx of cosmic rays
decreased and the resulting reduction of cloudiness allowed the world to warm up. ... most of the warming during
the 20th Century can be explained by a reduction in low cloud cover."[54]
• Jan Veizer, Pubs [55] environmental geochemist, Professor Emeritus from University of Ottawa: "At this stage,
two scenarios of potential human impact on climate appear feasible: (1) the standard IPCC model ..., and (2) the
alternative model that argues for celestial phenomena as the principal climate driver. ... Models and empirical
observations are both indispensable tools of science, yet when discrepancies arise, observations should carry
greater weight than theory. If so, the multitude of empirical observations favours celestial phenomena as the most
important driver of terrestrial climate on most time scales, but time will be the final judge."[56]
• John Christy, Pubs [61] professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at the
University of Alabama in Huntsville, contributor to several IPCC reports: "I'm sure the majority (but not all) of
my IPCC colleagues cringe when I say this, but I see neither the developing catastrophe nor the smoking gun
proving that human activity is to blame for most of the warming we see. Rather, I see a reliance on climate
models (useful but never "proof") and the coincidence that changes in carbon dioxide and global temperatures
have loose similarity over time."[62]
• Petr Chylek, Space and Remote Sensing Sciences researcher, Los Alamos National Laboratory: "carbon dioxide
should not be considered as a dominant force behind the current warming...how much of the [temperature]
increase can be ascribed to CO2, to changes in solar activity, or to the natural variability of climate is
uncertain"[63]
• David Deming, geology professor at the University of Oklahoma: "The amount of climatic warming that has
taken place in the past 150 years is poorly constrained, and its cause – human or natural – is unknown. There is
no sound scientific basis for predicting future climate change with any degree of certainty. If the climate does
warm, it is likely to be beneficial to humanity rather than harmful. In my opinion, it would be foolish to establish
national energy policy on the basis of misinformation and irrational hysteria."[64]
Now deceased
The lists above only include living scientists. The following are deceased.
• August H. "Augie" Auer Jr. (1940–2007) believed that the cause of global warming was unknown. Retired New
Zealand MetService Meteorologist, past professor of atmospheric science at the University of Wyoming, in 2006
he said: "So if you multiply the total contribution 3.6 by the man-made portion of it, 3.2, you find out that the
anthropogenic contribution of CO2 to the global greenhouse effect is 0.117 percent, roughly 0.12 percent, that's
like 12c in $100." "'It's miniscule ... it's nothing,'".[68]
• Reid Bryson (1920–2008) believed global warming was primarily caused by natural processes. Emeritus
Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, in 2007 he said: "It’s absurd.
Of course it’s going up. It has gone up since the early 1800s, before the Industrial Revolution, because we’re
coming out of the Little Ice Age, not because we’re putting more carbon dioxide into the air."[69]
List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming 250
• Marcel Leroux (1938–2008) believed global warming was primarily caused by natural processes. former
Professor of Climatology, Université Jean Moulin, in 2005 he said: "The possible causes, then, of climate change
are: well-established orbital parameters on the palaeoclimatic scale, ... solar activity, ...; volcanism ...; and far at
the rear, the greenhouse effect, and in particular that caused by water vapor, the extent of its influence being
unknown. These factors are working together all the time, and it seems difficult to unravel the relative importance
of their respective influences upon climatic evolution. Equally, it is tendentious to highlight the anthropic factor,
which is, clearly, the least credible among all those previously mentioned."[70]
• Frederick Seitz (1911–2008) believed global warming was primarily caused by natural processes. Former
solid-state physicist, former president of the National Academy of Sciences, in 2001 he said: "So we see that the
scientific facts indicate that all the temperature changes observed in the last 100 years were largely natural
changes and were not caused by carbon dioxide produced in human activities."[71]
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[3] Climate Change 2001: (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 008. htm) Working Group I: The Scientific Basis p.8 – IPCC
[4] Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ syr/ ar4_syr. pdf)
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[9] http:/ / www. rsbs. anu. edu. au/ ResearchGroups/ EBG/ profiles/ Garth_Paltridge/ documents/ Paltridge_Publicationsto2009. pdf
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[16] Russian scientist issues global cooling warning (http:/ / en. rian. ru/ russia/ 20060825/ 53143686. html) Russian News & Information
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[17] http:/ / www. ogoniok. com/ 4933/ 24/ Page in Russian, Go here (http:/ / translate. google. com/ translate?u=http:/ / www. ogoniok. com/
4933/ 24/ & langpair=ru|en& hl=en& ie=UTF8) for a translation.
[18] Global Warming Science vs. Computer Model Speculation: Just Ask the Experts (http:/ / capmag. com/ article. asp?ID=1816) Capitalism
Magazine, August 2002
[19] On global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate. Are humans involved? (http:/ / www. springerlink. com/ content/ t341350850360302/
) L. F. Khilyuk1 and G. V. Chilingar Environmental Geology, vol. 50 no. 6, August 2006
[20] http:/ / mysite. science. uottawa. ca/ idclark/ pubs. html
[21] Letter to the editor (http:/ / www. nrsp. com/ clark_letter_22-03-04. html) The Hill Times, March 2004
[22] http:/ / www. sges. auckland. ac. nz/ about_us/ our_people/ defreitas_chris/ index. shtm#Publications
[23] http:/ / www. climatescience. org. nz/ assets/ 2006510223000. CSC_News_3. PDF The New Zealand Herald, May 2006
[24] http:/ / www. pas. rochester. edu/ ~douglass/ recent-publications. html
[25] Newsmax.com – New Study Explodes Human-Global Warming Story (http:/ / www. newsmax. com/ insidecover/ global_warming/ 2007/
12/ 10/ 55974. html)
[26] http:/ / myweb. wwu. edu/ dbunny/ pubs. htm
[27] The Cause of Global Warming and Predictions for the Coming Century (http:/ / gsa. confex. com/ gsa/ 2006AM/ finalprogram/
abstract_108164. htm) Easterbrook, Don
List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming 251
[28] Viewpoint: Get off warming bandwagon (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ in_depth/ sci_tech/ 2000/ climate_change/ 1023334. stm) Gray,
William BBC November 2000
[29] The Tempest (http:/ / www. washingtonpost. com/ wp-dyn/ content/ article/ 2006/ 05/ 23/ AR2006052301305_pf. html) Achenbach, Joel
The Washington Post May 2006
[30] Discover Dialogue: Meteorologist William Gray (http:/ / www. discover. com/ issues/ sep-05/ departments/ discover-dialogue) Discover
September 2005
[31] Raymond Brusca (January 12, 2009). "Professor denies global warming theory" (http:/ / www. dailyprincetonian. com/ 2009/ 01/ 12/ 22506/
). .
[32] Climate Change: A Natural Hazard (http:/ / www. lavoisier. com. au/ papers/ articles/ climatechange. pdf)
[33] Climate Science: Climate Change and Its Impacts (http:/ / www. ncpa. org/ pub/ st/ st285/ ) National Center for Policy Analysis May 2006
[34] Global warning? Controversy heats up in the scientific community (http:/ / magazine. carleton. ca/ 2005_Spring/ 1535. htm) Robinson,
Cindy Carleton University Spring 2005
[35] http:/ / http-server. carleton. ca/ ~tpatters/ publications/ publications. html
[36] Scientists respond to Gore's warnings of climate catastrophe (http:/ / www. canadafreepress. com/ 2006/ harris061206. htm) Harris, Tom
Canada Free Press June 2006
[37] Read the Sunspots (http:/ / www. canada. com/ nationalpost/ financialpost/ comment/ story.
html?id=597d0677-2a05-47b4-b34f-b84068db11f4& p=4) Patterson, Timothy Financial Post June 2007
[38] http:/ / www. ecms. adelaide. edu. au/ civeng/ staff/ iplimer01. html#publications
[39] Wild weather ignites climate change debate (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ lateline/ stories/ s650126. htm)
[40] Segalstad, Tom. "What is CO2 – friend or foe?" (http:/ / www. co2web. info/ Segalstad_ISMA_CO2. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-07-04.
[41] http:/ / www. fel. duke. edu/ ~scafetta/ index-publications. html
[42] Scafetta webpage (http:/ / www. fel. duke. edu/ ~scafetta/ index. html)
[43] "Climate Change and Its Causes, A Discussion About Some Key Issues” (http:/ / scienceandpublicpolicy. org/ images/ stories/ papers/
originals/ climate_change_cause. pdf)
[44] http:/ / www. phys. huji. ac. il/ ~shaviv/ cv/ cv. html
[45] Carbon Dioxide or Solar Forcing? (http:/ / www. sciencebits. com/ CO2orSolar) ScienceBits
[46] http:/ / www. sepp. org/ about%20sepp/ bios/ singer/ profact. html
[47] Singer, S. Fred (April 22, 2005). "'Flat Earth Award' nominee's challenge to Chicken Littles" (http:/ / www. csmonitor. com/ 2005/ 0422/
p08s01-coop. html). Christian Science Monitor. .
[48] Singer, S. Fred; Avery, Dennis T. (September 2005). "The Physical Evidence of Earth’s Unstoppable 1,500-Year Climate Cycle" (http:/ /
www. ncpa. org/ pdfs/ st279. pdf). National Center for Policy Analysis. .
[49] The Denial Machine (http:/ / www. cbc. ca/ fifth/ denialmachine/ index. html) CBC's Denial machine @ 19:23 – Google Video Link (http:/ /
video. google. com/ videoplay?docid=522784499045867811& sourceid=docidfeed& hl=en)
[50] Global warming is not so hot: 1003 was worse, researchers find (http:/ / news. harvard. edu/ gazette/ 2003/ 04. 24/ 01-weather. html)
Harvard University Gazette April 2003
[51] (http:/ / epw. senate. gov/ public/ index. cfm?FuseAction=Files. View& FileStore_id=e12b56cb-4c7b-4c21-bd4a-7afbc4ee72f3) Testimony
of Roy W. Spencer before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee on July 22, 2008
[52] Essay 1: 'Global Warming' as Myth (http:/ / parliamentofthings. info/ climate. html) A Parliament of Things
[53] http:/ / www. space. dtu. dk/ English/ Research/ Research_divisions/ Geodesy/ Publications. aspx?lg=showcommon& type=publications&
id=38287
[54] Influence of Cosmic Rays on the Earth's Climate (http:/ / www. junkscience. com/ Greenhouse/ influence-of-cosmic-rays-on-the-earth. pdf)
Svensmark, Henry Danish National Space Center, Juliane Maries Vej 30, DK-2100 Copenhagen
[55] http:/ / mysite. science. uottawa. ca/ jveizer/ default. html
[56] Celestial climate driver: a perspective from four billion years of the carbon cycle (http:/ / www. findarticles. com/ p/ articles/ mi_m0QQS/
is_1_32/ ai_n13670777/ pg_11) and here (http:/ / www. esd. mun. ca/ ~gac/ JOURNALS/ TOC/ GACgcV32No1Web. pdf) In J. Veizer, ,
Geoscience Canada, March 2005
[57] http:/ / www. iarc. uaf. edu/ people/ sakasofu
[58] On the Fundamental Defect in the IPCC’s Approach to Global Warming Research (http:/ / climatesci. org/ 2007/ 06/ 15/
on-the-fundamental-defect-in-the-ipcc’s-approach-to-global-warming-research-by-syun-ichi-akasofu/ ) Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr.
Research Group Weblog, June 15, 2007
[59] Climat: la prévention, oui, la peur, non (http:/ / www. lexpress. fr/ idees/ tribunes/ dossier/ allegre/ dossier. asp?ida=452950), Translation
from the original French version in L'Express, May 2006
[60] The Increase in Global Temperature: What it Does and Does Not Tell Us (http:/ / www. marshall. org/ pdf/ materials/ 170. pdf) Balling,
Robert George C. Marshall Institute, Policy Outlook September 2003
[61] http:/ / www. nsstc. uah. edu/ atmos/ christy_pubs. html
[62] Christy, John (2007-11-01). "My Nobel Moment" (http:/ / online. wsj. com/ article/ SB119387567378878423.
html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries). Wall Street Journal. . Retrieved 2007-11-02.
[63] A Long Term Perspective on Climate Change (http:/ / downloads. heartland. org/ 2329bo. pdf) – Heartland.org
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[64] Testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works (http:/ / epw. senate. gov/ hearing_statements.
cfm?id=266543) December 2006
[65] A Science—Based Rebuttal to the Testimony of Al Gore before the United States Senate Environment & Public Works Committee (http:/ /
www. heartland. org/ custom/ semod_policybot/ pdf/ 21345. pdf)
[66] Enhanced or Impaired? Human Health in a CO2-Enriched Warmer World (http:/ / www. co2science. org/ scripts/ Template/
0_CO2ScienceB2C/ pdf/ health2pps. pdf). CO2 Science. November 2003, p. 30
[67] Michaels, Patrick (October 16, 2003). "Posturing and Reality on Warming" (http:/ / www. cato. org/ research/ articles/ michaels-031016.
html). CATO Institute. . Retrieved June 10, 2009.
[68] AUER EXPLAINS WHY HE BACKS CLIMATE SCIENCE COALITION (http:/ / www. tmcnet. com/ usubmit/ 2006/ 04/ 30/ 1626112.
htm) New Zealand Press Association April 30, 2006.
[69] Wisconsin's Energy Cooperative (http:/ / www. wecnmagazine. com/ 2007issues/ may/ may07. html) May 2007
[70] M. Leroux, Global Warming – Myth or Reality?, 2005, p. 120 (http:/ / www. amazon. com/ dp/ 354023909X)
[71] Do people cause global warming? (http:/ / www. heartland. org/ Article. cfm?artId=812) Heartland Institute Environment News December
2001
Physical impacts
Global mean surface temperature difference from the average for 1880-2009
Mean surface temperature change for the period 1999 to 2008 relative to the average temperatures from 1940 to 1980
This section describes some physical impacts of climate change. For some of these physical impacts, their effect on
social and economic systems are also described.
Over the last hundred years or so, the instrumental temperature record has shown a trend in climate of increased
global mean temperature, i.e., global warming. Other observed changes include Arctic shrinkage, Arctic methane
release, releases of terrestrial carbon from permafrost regions and Arctic methane release in coastal sediments, and
sea level rise.[5] [6] Global average temperature is predicted to increase over this century, with a probable increase in
frequency of some extreme weather events, and changes in rainfall patterns. Moving from global to regional scales,
there is increased uncertainty over how climate will change. The probability of warming having unforeseen
consequences increases with the rate, magnitude, and duration of climate change.[7] Some of the physical impacts of
climate change are irreversible at continental and global scales.[8] With medium confidence, IPCC (2007b:17)
concluded that with a global average temperature increase of 1–4°C, (relative to 1990–2000) partial deglaciation of
the Greenland ice sheet would occur over a period of centuries to millennia.[9] Including the possible contribution of
partial deglaciation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, sea level would rise by 4–6 m or more.
Effects on weather
Observations show that there have been changes in weather.[10] As climate changes, the probabilities of certain types
of weather events are affected.
Changes have been observed in the amount, intensity, frequency, and type of precipitation.[11] Widespread increases
in heavy precipitation have occurred, even in places where total rain amounts have decreased. IPCC (2007d)
concluded that human influences had, more likely than not (greater than 50% probability, based on expert
judgement), contributed to an increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events.[12] Projections of future
changes in precipitation show overall increases in the global average, but with substantial shifts in where and how
precipitation falls.[13]
Effects of global warming 254
Evidence suggests that since the 1970s, there have been substantial increases in the intensity and duration of tropical
storms and hurricanes.[14] Models project a general tendency for more intense but fewer storms outside the
tropics.[13]
Extreme weather
Since the late 20th century, changes have been observed in the trends of some extreme weather and climate events,
e.g., heat waves.[15] Human activities have, with varying degrees of confidence, contributed to some of these
observed trends. Projections for the 21st century suggest continuing changes in trends for some extreme events.
Solomon et al. (2007), for example, projected the following likely (greater than 66% probability, based on expert
judgement) changes:
• an increase in the areas affected by drought;
• increased tropical cyclone activity;
• and increased incidence of extreme high sea level (excluding tsunamis)
Regional effects of global warming vary in nature. Some are the result
of a generalised global change, such as rising temperature, resulting in
local effects, such as melting ice. In other cases, a change may be
related to a change in a particular ocean current or weather system. In
such cases, the regional effect may be disproportionate and will not
necessarily follow the global trend.
There are three major ways in which global warming will make
changes to regional climate: melting or forming ice, changing the
hydrological cycle (of evaporation and precipitation) and changing
currents in the oceans and air flows in the atmosphere. The coast can
also be considered a region, and will suffer severe impacts from sea
level rise. The first recorded South Atlantic hurricane,
"Catarina", which hit Brazil in March 2004
Biogeochemical cycles
Climate change may have an effect on the carbon cycle in an interactive "feedback" process . A feedback exists
where an initial process triggers changes in a second process that in turn influences the initial process. A positive
feedback intensifies the original process, and a negative feedback reduces it (IPCC, 2007d:78).[4] Models suggest
that the interaction of the climate system and the carbon cycle is one where the feedback effect is positive (Schneider
et al.., 2007:792).[17]
Using the A2 SRES emissions scenario, Schneider et al.. (2007:789) found that this effect led to additional warming
by 2100, relative to the 1990-2000 period, of 0.1 to 1.5 °C. This estimate was made with high confidence. The
climate projections made in the IPCC Forth Assessment Report of 1.1 to 6.4 °C account for this feedback effect. On
the other hand, with medium confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007) commented that additional releases of GHGs were
possible from permafrost, peat lands, wetlands, and large stores of marine hydrates at high latitudes.
Effects of global warming 255
Oceans
The role of the oceans in global warming is a complex one. The oceans serve as a sink for carbon dioxide, taking up
much that would otherwise remain in the atmosphere, but increased levels of CO2 have led to ocean acidification.
Furthermore, as the temperature of the oceans increases, they become less able to absorb excess CO2. Global
warming is projected to have a number of effects on the oceans. Ongoing effects include rising sea levels due to
thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and warming of the ocean surface, leading to increased
temperature stratification. Other possible effects include large-scale changes in ocean circulation.
Acidification
Dissolving CO2 in seawater increases the hydrogen ion (H+) concentration in the ocean, and thus decreases ocean
pH. Caldeira and Wickett (2003) placed the rate and magnitude of modern ocean acidification changes in the context
of probable historical changes during the last 300 million years.[18] Since the industrial revolution began, it is
estimated that surface ocean pH has dropped by slightly more than 0.1 units (on the logarithmic scale of pH;
approximately a 30% increase in H+), and it is estimated that it will drop by a further 0.3 to 0.5 units (more than
doubling ocean H+ concentrations) by 2100 as the oceans absorb more anthropogenic CO2.[18] [19] [20]
Oxygen depletion
The amount of oxygen dissolved in the oceans may decline, with adverse consequences for ocean life.[21] [22]
IPCC (2007a:5) reported that since 1961, global average sea level had risen at an average rate of 1.8 [1.3 to 2.3]
mm/yr.[3] Between 1993 and 2003, the rate increased above the previous period to 3.1 [2.4 to 3.8] mm/yr. IPCC
(2007a) were uncertain whether the increase in rate from 1993 to 2003 was due to natural variations in sea level over
the time period, or whether it reflected an increase in the underlying long-term trend.
IPCC (2007a:13, 14) projected sea level rise to the end of the 21st century using the SRES emission scenarios.
Across the six SRES marker scenarios, sea level was projected to rise by 18 to 59 cm (7.1 to 23.2 inches). This
Effects of global warming 256
projection was for the time period 2090-2099, with the increase in level relative to average sea levels over the
1980-1999 period. Due to a lack of scientific understanding, this sea level rise estimate does not include all of the
possible contributions of ice sheets (see the section on abrupt or irreversible changes).
Temperature rise
From 1961 to 2003, the global ocean temperature has risen by 0.10 °C from the surface to a depth of 700 m. There is
variability both year-to-year and over longer time scales, with global ocean heat content observations showing high
rates of warming for 1991 to 2003, but some cooling from 2003 to 2007.[23] The temperature of the Antarctic
Southern Ocean rose by 0.17 °C (0.31 °F) between the 1950s and the 1980s, nearly twice the rate for the world's
oceans as a whole.[24] As well as having effects on ecosystems (e.g. by melting sea ice, affecting algae that grow on
its underside), warming reduces the ocean's ability to absorb CO2.
Social systems
Food supply
Climate change will impact agriculture and food production around the world due to: the effects of elevated CO2 in
the atmosphere, higher temperatures, altered precipitation and transpiration regimes, increased frequency of extreme
events, and modified weed, pest, and pathogen pressure (Easterling et al.., 2007:282).[25] In general, low-latitude
areas are at most risk of having decreased crop yields (Schneider et al.., 2007:790).[17] With low to medium
confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007:787) concluded that for about a 1 to 3°C global mean temperature increase (by
2100, relative to the 1990-2000 average level) there would be productivity decreases for some cereals in low
latitudes, and productivity increases in high latitudes. With medium confidence, global production potential was
predicted to:
• increase up to around 3°C,
• very likely decrease above about 3 to 4°C.
Most of the studies on global agriculture assessed by Schneider et al.. (2007:790) had not incorporated a number of
critical factors, including changes in extreme events, or the spread of pests and diseases. Studies had also not
considered the development of specific practices or technologies to aid adaptation.
Health
Human beings are exposed to climate change through changing weather patterns (temperature, precipitation,
sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events) and indirectly through changes in water, air and food quality and
changes in ecosystems, agriculture, industry and settlements and the economy (Confalonieri et al.., 2007:393).[26]
According to a literature assessment by Confalonieri et al.. (2007:393), the effects of climate change to date have
been small, but are projected to progressively increase in all countries and regions.
With high confidence, Confalonieri et al.. (2007:393) concluded that climate change had altered the seasonal
distribution of some allergenic pollen species. With medium confidence, they concluded that climate change had:
• altered the distribution of some infectious disease vectors
• increased heatwave-related deaths
With high confidence, IPCC (2007d:48) projected that:[4]
• the health status of millions of people would be affected through, for example, increases in malnutrition;
increased deaths, diseases and injury due to extreme weather events; increased burden of diarrhoeal diseases;
increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to high concentrations of ground-level ozone in urban
areas related to climate change; and altered spatial distribution of some infectious diseases.
Effects of global warming 257
• climate change would bring some benefits in temperate areas, such as fewer deaths from cold exposure, and some
mixed effects such as changes in range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa. Overall, IPCC (2007d:48)
expected that benefits would be outweighed by negative health effects of rising temperatures, especially in
developing countries.
With very high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007:393) concluded that economic development was an important
component of possible adaptation to climate change. Economic growth on its own, however, was not judged to be
sufficient to insulate the world's population from disease and injury due to climate change. The manner in which
economic growth occurs was judged to be important, along with how the benefits of growth are distributed in
society. Examples of other important factors in determining the health of populations were listed as: education,
health care, and public-health infrastructure.
highest endemicity and epidemic frequency of meningococcal meningitis in Africa, although other areas in the Rift
Valley, the Great Lakes, and southern Africa are also affected (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[33] The spatial distribution,
intensity, and seasonality of meningococcal (epidemic) meningitis appear to be strongly linked to climate and
environmental factors, particularly drought. The cause of this link is not fully understood.
Fires
In some regions, changes in temperature and precipitation are projected to increase the frequency and severity of fire
events (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[34] Forest and bush fires cause burns, damage from smoke inhalation and other
injuries.
Infectious disease vectors
With high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that climate change would continue to change the range of
some infectious disease vectors.[27] Vector-borne diseases (VBD) are infections transmitted by the bite of infected
arthropod species, such as mosquitoes, ticks, triatomine bugs, sandflies, and blackflies (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[35]
There is some evidence of climate-change-related shifts in the distribution of tick vectors of disease, of some
(non-malarial) mosquito vectors in Europe and North America. Climate change has also been implicated in changes
in the breeding and migration dates of several bird species. Several species of wild bird can act as carriers of human
pathogens as well as of vectors of infectious agents.
Dengue
It is possibled that climate change will increase the number of people at risk of dengue (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[27]
Based on the expert judgement of Confalonieri et al. (2007), this projection had about a two-in-ten chance of being
correct. Dengue is the world's most important vector-borne viral disease (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[36] Several
studies have reported associations between dengue and climate, however, these associations are not entirely
consistent.
Malaria
The spatial distribution, intensity of transmission, and seasonalty of malaria is influenced by climate in Sub-saharan
Africa (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[37] Rainfall can be a limiting factor for mosquito populations and there is some
evidence of reductions in transmission associated with decadal decreases in rainfall. The effects of observed climate
change on the geographical distribution of malaria and its transmission intensity in highland regions remains
controversial. There is no clear evidence that malaria has been affected by climate change in South America or in
continental regions of the Russian Federation. There is still much uncertainty about the potential impact of climate
change on malaria at local and global scales.
A paper by researchers from the University of Oxford and the University of Florida published in Nature in May 2010
concluded that claims that a warming climate has led to more widespread disease and death due to malaria are
largely at odds with the evidence, and that "predictions of an intensification of malaria in a warmer world, based on
extrapolated empirical relationships or biological mechanisms, must be set against a context of a century of
warming that has seen marked global declines in the disease and a substantial weakening of the global correlation
between malaria endemicity and climate."[38] [39]
Other infectious diseases
There is good evidence that diseases transmitted by rodents sometimes increase during heavy rainfall and flooding
because of altered patterns of human-pathogen-rodent contact (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[40]
Projections
With very high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) concluded that climate change would have mixed effects on
malaria.[27] Malaria is a complex disease to model and all of the published models assessed by Confalonieri et al.
(2007) had limited parameterization of some key factors.[41] Parametrization is used in climate models because the
resolution of models is insufficient to resolve some physical processes (Randall et al., 2007).[42] Given this
limitation, models assessed by Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that, particularly in Africa, climate change would
Effects of global warming 259
be associated with geographical expansions of the areas suitable for Plasmodium falciparum malaria in some
regions, and contractions in other regions. Projections also suggested that some regions would experience a longer
season of transmission. Projections suggested expansions in vector species that carry dengue for parts of Australia
and New Zealand.
Diarrhoeal diseases
With medium confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) concluded that climate change would increase the burden of
diarrhoeal diseases.[27] Childhood mortality due to diarrhoea in low-income countries, especially in Sub-Saharan
Africa, remains high (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[43] This is despite improvements in care. Several studies have shown
that transmission of enteric pathogens is higher during the rainy season. Some studies have found that higher
temperature was strongly associated with increased episodes of diarrhoeal disease in adults and children in Peru. The
WHO study, referred to earlier, projected that climate change would increase the burden of diarrhoeal diseases in
low-income regions by approximately 2 to 5% in 2020 (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[29]
Ground-level ozone
With high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that climate change would increase cardio-respiratory
morbidity and mortality associated with ground-level ozone.[27] Ground-level ozone is both naturally occurring and
is the primary constituent of urban smog (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[44] Ozone in smog is formed through chemical
reactions involving nitrogen oxides and other compounds. The reaction is a photochemical reaction, meaning that it
involves electromagnetic radiation, and occurs in the presence of bright sunshine and high temperatures. Exposure to
elevated concentrations of ozone is associated with increased hospital admissions for pneumonia, chronic obstructive
pulmonary disease, asthma, allergic rhinitis and other respiratory diseases, and with premature mortality.
Background levels of ground-level ozone have risen since pre-industrial times because of increasing emissions of
methane, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[45] This trend is expected to continue into
the mid-21st century.
Cold-waves
It is expected thatb climate change will bring some health benefits (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[27] It is expected that
these benefits will be outweighed by negative climate change effects.
Cold-waves continue to be a problem in northern latitudes, where very low temperatures can be reached in a few
hours and extend over long periods (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[46] Reductions in cold-deaths due to climate change
are projected to be greater than increases in heat-related deaths in the UK (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[32]
Water resources
In a literature assessment, Kundzewicz et al.. (2007:175) concluded, with high confidence, that:[47]
• the negative impacts of climate change on freshwater systems outweigh the benefits. All of the regions assessed in
the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Africa, Asia, Australia and New Zealand, Europe, Latin America, North
America, Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic), and small islands) showed an overall net negative impact of
climate change on water resources and freshwater ecosystems.
• Semi-arid and arid areas are particularly exposed to the impacts of climate change on freshwater. With very high
confidence, it was judged that many of these areas, e.g., the Mediterranean basin, western USA, southern Africa,
and north-eastern Brazil, would suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change.
Effects of global warming 260
Aggregate impacts
Aggregating impacts adds up the total impact of climate change across sectors and/or regions (IPCC, 2007d:76).[4]
The impacts of climate change across world population will not be distributed evenly (Smith et al., 2001:957).[50]
IPCC (2007b:17) found that for increases in global mean temperature of less than 1-3 °C above 1990 levels, some
impacts were projected to produce benefits in some places and sectors, and produce costs in other places and
sectors.[9] For some low-latitude and polar regions, net costs were projected for small increases in temperature.
According to IPCC (2007b:17), a temperature increase of greater than about 2-3 °C would very likely result in all
regions either experiencing reductions in net benefits or increases in net costs.
Regions
Some regions are likely to be especially affected by climate change (IPCC, 2007d:9):[4]
• The Arctic, because of high rates of projected warming.
• Africa, especially in the sub-Saharan region. This is due to the continent's low capacity to adapt to climate change
and projected impacts.
• Small islands, due to high exposure of population and infrastructure at risk to sea-level rise and increased storm
surge.
• Asian megadeltas, due to large populations and high exposure to sea-level rise, storm surge and river flooding.
Within other areas, some people are particularly at risk, such as the poor, young children and the elderly.
Biological systems
With very high confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007:792) concluded that regional temperature trends were already
affecting species and ecosystems around the world.[17] In a literature assessment, Rosenzweig et al.. (2007:81)
concluded that over the last three decades, human-induced warming had likely had a discernable influence on many
physical and biological systems.[51]
Schneider et al.. (2007:792) concluded, with high confidence, that climate change would result in the extinction of
many species and a reduction in the diversity of ecosystems.
• Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity: With a warming of 3°C, relative to 1990 levels, it is likely that global
terrestrial vegetation would become a net source of carbon (Schneider et al.., 2007:792). With high confidence,
Schneider et al.. (2007:788) concluded that a global mean temperature increase of around 4°C (above the
1990-2000 level) by 2100 would lead to major extinctions around the globe.
Effects of global warming 261
• Marine ecosystems and biodiversity: With very high confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007:792) concluded that a
warming of 2°C above 1990 levels would result in mass mortality of coral reefs globally.
• Freshwater ecosystems: Above about a 4°C increase in global mean temperature by 2100 (relative to
1990-2000), Schneider et al.. (2007:789) concluded, with high confidence, that many freshwater species would
become extinct.
Footnotes
The IPCC report that is referred to in this article uses specific and quantitative language to describe uncertainty
(Ahmad et al., 2001).[57] This language is intended to provide an indication of the level of confidence that IPCC
authors have about a particular finding. The qualitative language used to describe uncertainty has a quantitative scale
associated with it. The quantitative values for qualitative terms are intended to ensure that confidence levels are
interpreted correctly. The is because qualitative statements, e.g., using the word "likely," can be interpreted
differently in quantitative terms (Moss and Schneider, 2000, p. 44).[58]
Quantitative values for confidence statements made in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report are listed below (IPCC,
2007).[59] These quantitative values are subjective probabilities (see Ahmad et al., 2001, section 2.6.2) that reflect
the expert judgement of IPCC authors:
a
• Very high confidence: At least 9 out of 10 chance of being correct
b
• High confidence: About 8 out of 10 chance
c
• Medium confidence: About 5 out of 10 chance
Effects of global warming 262
d
• Low confidence: About 2 out of 10 chance
e
• Very low confidence: Less than a 1 out of 10 chance
Notes
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Effects of global warming 265
Further reading
• Houghton, P.J.; Ding, Y.; Griggs, D.J. et al., eds (2001). Climate change 2001: the scientific basis: contribution
of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://
www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-80767-0.
• Karl, T.R., et al., ed (2009). Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (http://www.globalchange.
gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/download-the-report). Cambridge University Press.
ISBN 978-0-521-14407-0. Retrieved 2011-04-28.
• Parry, M.L., et al., ed (2007). Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability : contribution of
Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://
www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html). Cambridge University Press.
ISBN 0521880106.
• Solomon, S., et al., ed (2007). Climate change 2007 : the physical science basis : contribution of Working Group
I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.ipcc.ch/
publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html). Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0521705967.
• US National Research Council (2008). "Understanding and Responding to Climate Change" (http://
americasclimatechoices.org/climate_change_2008_final.pdf) (PDF). Board on Atmospheric Sciences and
Climate (http://dels.nas.edu/basc), US National Academy of Sciences. Retrieved 2011-04-28.
• US National Research Council (2008). "Ecological Impacts of Climate Change" (http://books.nap.edu/catalog.
php?record_id=12491). The National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001, USA. pp.
70. Retrieved 2010-03-13.
External links
Physical impacts
• "Climate Change" (http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/main_climate_change.php). World
Meteorological Organization.
• The IPCC Working Group I (WG I) website (http://www.ipcc-wg1.unibe.ch/). This body assesses the physical
scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change.
General
• List of United Nations Functional Commissions and Expert Bodies related to climate change (http://esa.un.org/
subindex/pgViewSites.asp?termCode=QB.25)
• IRIN, the humanitarian news and analysis service of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs:
"What climate change does" (http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=79563), "How climate change
works" (http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=79508), and "Gathering Storm - the humanitarian
impact of climate change" (http://www.irinnews.org/IndepthMain.aspx?IndepthId=73&ReportId=78246)
• Videos:
• "Educational Forum: Arctic Climate Impact" (http://video.google.com/
videoplay?docid=4119472365452589212). Panel discussion with James J. McCarthy, Professor at Harvard
Effects of global warming 266
University, and Author; Paul R. Epstein, M.D., instructor in medicine at Harvard Medical School; and Ross
Gelbspan, Pulitzer-prize winning journalist and author. Massachusetts School of Law.
• "How we know humans are changing the climate and Why climate change is a clear and present danger" (http:/
/climateprogress.org/2010/02/05/
videos-humans-are-changing-the-climate-global-warming-threat-chris-field/#more-18551). Interviews with
Christopher Field and Michael MacCracken. Christopher Field is the director of the Department of Global
Ecology at the Carnegie Institution of Washington, professor of biology and environmental earth system
science at Stanford University, and the Working Group II Co-Chair for the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. Michael MacCracken is the chief scientist for Climate Change Programs at the Climate
Institute and a co-author and contributing author for various chapters in the IPCC assessment reports. Climate
Progress website, February 5, 2010.
Definitions
According to the Committee on Abrupt Climate Change of the National Research Council[1] [9] :
There are essentially two definitions of abrupt climate change:
• In terms of physics, it is a transition of the climate system into a different mode on a time scale that is faster
than the responsible forcing.
• In terms of impacts, "an abrupt change is one that takes place so rapidly and unexpectedly that human or
natural systems have difficulty adapting to it".
These definitions are complementary: the former gives some insight into how abrupt climate change comes
about ; the latter explains why there is so much research devoted to it, why it inspires catastrophe movies, and
may even be the reason why you are reading this page.
Abrupt climate change 267
Current situation
The IPCC states that global warming "could lead to some effects that are abrupt or irreversible".[10]
In an article in Science, Alley et al. said "it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the
probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large
and potentially serious."[11]
Regional changes
Lenton et al.[12] investigated tipping elements in the climate system. These were regional effects of global warming,
some of which had abrupt onset and may therefore be regarded as abrupt climate change. They found that "Our
synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this
century under anthropogenic climate change."
Ocean effects
Global oceans have established
patterns of currents. Several potential
disruptions to this system of currents
have been identified as a result of
global warming:
• Increasing frequency of El Nino
events.[13] [14]
• Potential disruption to [15] the
thermohaline circulation, such as
that which may have occurred
during the Younger Dryas event.[16]
• Changes to the North Atlantic
oscillation[17] A summary of the path of the thermohaline circulation. Blue paths represent deep-water
currents, while red paths represent surface currents
Past events
Several periods of abrupt climate change have been
identified in the paleoclimatic record. Notable
examples include:
• About 25 climate shifts, called Dansgaard-Oeschger
cycles, which have been identified in the ice core
record during the glacial period over the past
100,000 years. The most recent of these events was
the Younger Dryas which began 12,900 years ago
and moved back into a warm-and-wet climate
regime about 11,600 years ago.
• The Younger Dryas event, notably its sudden end. It
has been suggested that: "The extreme rapidity of The Younger Dryas period of abrupt climate change is named after
these changes in a variable that directly represents the Alpine flower, Dryas.
regional climate implies that the events at the end of
the last glaciation may have been responses to some kind of threshold or trigger in the North Atlantic climate
system."[20] A model for this event based on disruption to the thermohaline circulation has been supported by
other studies.[16]
• The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, timed at 55 million years ago, which may have been caused by the
clathrate gun effect,[21] although potential alternative mechanisms have been identified.[22] This was associated
with rapid ocean acidification[23]
• The Permian-Triassic Extinction Event, also known as the great dying, in which up to 95% of all species became
extinct, has been hypothesized to be related to a rapid change in global climate.[24] [25] Life on land took 30M
years to recover.[26]
• The Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse occurred 300 million years ago, at which time tropical rainforests were
devastated by climate change. The cooler, drier climate had an severe effect on the biodiversity of amphibians, the
primary form of vertebrate life on land.[2]
There are also abrupt climate changes associated with the catastrophic draining of glacial lakes. One example of this
is the 8.2 kiloyear event, which associated with the draining of Glacial Lake Agassiz.[27] Another example is the
Antarctic Cold Reversal, c. 14,500 years before present (BP), which is believed to have been caused by a meltwater
pulse from the Antarctic ice sheet. These rapid meltwater release events have been hypothesized as a cause for
Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles,[28]
• Land temperatures had remained relatively trendless from 1950 to 1976, despite the CO2 rising from 310 to
332 ppm as fossil fuel emissions tripled. Then in 1977 there was a marked shift in observed global mean surface
temperature to a rising fever of about 2°C/century.[32]
• The expansion of the tropics from overheating is usually thought to be gradual, but the percentage of the land
surface in the two most extreme classifications of drought suddenly doubled in 1982 and stayed there until 1997
when it jumped to triple (after six years, it stepped down to double).[33] While their inceptions correlate with the
particularly large El Niňos of 1982 and 1997, the global drought steps far outlast the 13-month durations of those
El Niňos.
• There were near-misses for Burn Locally, Crash Globally in Amazonia in 1998, 2005, and 2007, each with higher
flammability than its predecessor.[34] [35]
• There have also been two occasions when the Atlantic's Meridional Overturning Circulation lost a crucial safety
factor. The Greenland Sea flushing at 75 °N shut down in 1978, recovering over the next decade.[36] Then the
second-largest flushing site, the Labrador Sea, shut down in 1997.[37] for ten years[38] While shutdowns
overlapping in time have not been seen during the fifty years of observation, previous total shutdowns had severe
worldwide climate consequences.[11]
This makes abrupt climate shifts more like a heart attack than like a chronic disease whose course can be
extrapolated.[30] Like heart attacks, some abrupt climate shifts are minor, some are catastrophic—and one cannot
predict which or when. The recent track record, however, is that there have been several sudden shifts and several
near-misses in each decade since 1976.
Consequential effects
K–T
Tr–J
P–Tr
Late D
O–S
Millions of years ago
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, labelled "P-Tr" here, is the most significant extinction event in this plot for marine genera.
Abrupt climate change has likely been the cause of wide ranging and severe effects:
• Rapid Ocean acidification,[23] which can harm marine life (such as corals).[39]
• Mass extinctions in the past, most notably the Permian-Triassic Extinction event (often referred to as the great
dying) and the Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse, have been suggested as a consequence of abrupt climate
change.[2] [40]
Abrupt climate change 270
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surface temperature". Nature 453 (7195): 646–649. doi:10.1038/nature06982. PMID 18509442.
[33] Dai A, Trenberth KE, Qian T (2004). "A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: Relationship with soil moisture
and effects of surface warming." (http:/ / www. cgd. ucar. edu/ cas/ adai/ papers/ Dai_pdsi_paper. pdf). J Hydrometeorology 5: 1117–1130.
doi:10.1175/JHM-386.1. .
[34] Santilli, M. �R.; Moutinho, P.; Schwartzman, S.; Nepstad, D.; Curran, L.; Nobre, C. (2005). "Tropical Deforestation and the Kyoto
Protocol". Climatic Change 71 (3): 267. doi:10.1007/s10584-005-8074-6.
[35] Phillips, O.; Aragão, L.; Lewis, S.; Fisher, J.; Lloyd, J.; López-González, G.; Malhi, Y.; Monteagudo, A. et al. (2009). "Drought sensitivity
of the Amazon rainforest". Science 323 (5919): 1344–1347. doi:10.1126/science.1164033. PMID 19265020.
[36] Schlosser P, Bönisch G, Rhein M, Bayer R (1991). "Reduction of deepwater formation in the Greenland Sea during the 1980s: Evidence
from tracer data." (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ reprint/ 251/ 4997/ 1054. pdf). Science 251 (4997): 1054–1056.
doi:10.1126/science.251.4997.1054. PMID 17802088. .
[37] Rhines, P. B. (2006). "Sub-Arctic oceans and global climate". Weather 61 (4): 109–118. doi:10.1256/wea.223.05.
[38] Våge, K.; Pickart, R. S.; Thierry, V.; Reverdin, G.; Lee, C. M.; Petrie, B.; Agnew, T. A.; Wong, A. et al. (2008). "Surprising return of deep
convection to the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean in winter 2007–2008". Nature Geoscience 2 (1): 67. doi:10.1038/ngeo382.
[39] Fabry, V. J.; Seibel, B. A.; Feely, R. A.; Orr, J. C. (2008). "Impacts of ocean acidification on marine fauna and ecosystem processes" (http:/ /
icesjms. oxfordjournals. org/ cgi/ reprint/ 65/ 3/ 414. pdf). ICES Journal of Marine Science 65 (3): 414–432. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsn048. .
[40] Crowley, T. J.; North, G. R. (May 1988). "Abrupt Climate Change and Extinction Events in Earth History". Science 240 (4855): 996–1002.
doi:10.1126/science.240.4855.996. PMID 17731712.
Further reading
• Parson, Edward; Dessler, Andrew Emory (2006). The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change: A Guide to
the Debate (http://www.cambridge.org/us/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521539418). Cambridge, UK:
Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-53941-2.
• Alley, Richard B. (2000). The Two-Mile Time Machine: Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and Our Future.
Princeton, N.J: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-00493-5.
• Calvin, William H. (2002). A Brain for All Seasons: Human Evolution and Abrupt Climate Change (http://
WilliamCalvin.com/BrainForAllSeasons/). London and Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
ISBN 0-226-09201-1.
• Calvin, William H. (2008). Global fever: How to treat climate change (http://www.williamcalvin.org/bk14).
Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press.
Abrupt climate change 272
• Cox, John (2005). Climate Crash: Abrupt Climate Change and What It Means for Our Future. Washington, D.C:
Joseph Henry Press. ISBN 0-309-09312-0.
• Drummond, Carl N.; Wilkinson, Bruce H. (2006). "Interannual Variability in Climate Data". Journal of Geology
114: 325–39. Bibcode 2006JG....114..325D. doi:10.1086/500992.
• Clark, P.U., A.J. Weaver (coordinating lead authors), E. Brook, E.R. Cook, T.L. Delworth, and K. Steffen
(chapter lead authors). (2008). "Abrupt Climate Change. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program
and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research." (http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-4/
final-report/default.htm#finalreport). Reston, VA: U.S. Geological Survey. Retrieved 2009-08-11.
• Schwartz, Peter; Randall, Doug (October 2003). "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for
United States National Security" (http://www.climate.org/PDF/clim_change_scenario.pdf).
External links
• Abrupt Climate Change Information from the Ocean & Climate Change Institute (http://www.whoi.edu/page.
do?pid=12455), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
• Newest reports on US EPA website (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/)
• U.S. Global Change Research Program, Abrupt Climate Change (http://www.globalchange.gov/component/
content/article/67-themes/151-abrutp-climate-change)
In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways :
• productivity, in terms of quantity and quality of crops
• agricultural practices, through changes of water use (irrigation) and agricultural inputs such as herbicides,
insecticides and fertilizers
• environmental effects, in particular in relation of frequency and intensity of soil drainage (leading to nitrogen
leaching), soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity
• rural space, through the loss and gain of cultivated lands, land speculation, land renunciation, and hydraulic
amenities.
• adaptation, organisms may become more or less competitive, as well as humans may develop urgency to develop
more competitive organisms, such as flood resistant or salt resistant varieties of rice.
They are large uncertainties to uncover, particularly because there is lack of information on many specific local
regions, and include the uncertainties on magnitude of climate change, the effects of technological changes on
productivity, global food demands, and the numerous possibilities of adaptation.
Most agronomists believe that agricultural production will be mostly affected by the severity and pace of climate
change, not so much by gradual trends in climate. If change is gradual, there may be enough time for biota
adjustment. Rapid climate change, however, could harm agriculture in many countries, especially those that are
already suffering from rather poor soil and climate conditions, because there is less time for optimum natural
selection and adaption.
Projections
Schneider et al.. (2007:787) assessed the literature on key vulnerabilities to climate change.[6] With low to medium
confidence, they concluded that for about a 1 to 3°C global mean temperature increase (by 2100, relative to the
1990-2000 average level) there would be productivity decreases for some cereals in low latitudes, and productivity
increases in high latitudes. With medium confidence, global production potential was predicted to:
• increase up to around 3°C,
• very likely decrease above about 3 to 4°C.
Most of the studies on global agriculture assessed by Schneider et al.. (2007:790) had not incorporated a number of
critical factors, including changes in extreme events, or the spread of pests and diseases. Studies had also not
considered the development of specific practices or technologies to aid adaptation.
Regional
• Africa:
• Africa's geography makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change, and seventy per cent of the population
rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. Tanzania's official report on climate change suggests that the
areas that usually get two rainfalls in the year will probably get more, and those that get only one rainy season
will get far less. The net result is expected to be that 33% less maize—the country's staple crop—will be
grown.[7] Alongside other factors, regional climate change - in particular, reduced precipitation - is thought to
have contributed to the conflict in Darfur.[8] The combination of decades of drought, desertification and
overpopulation are among the causes of the conflict, because the Baggara Arab nomads searching for water
have to take their livestock further south, to land mainly occupied by farming peoples.[9]
• With high confidence, IPCC (2007:13) concluded that climate variability and change would severely
compromise agricultural production and access to food.[10]
• Asia: With medium confidence, IPCC (2007:13) projected that by the mid-21st century, in East and Southeast
Asia, crop yields could increase up to 20%, while in Central and South Asia, yields could decrease by up to 30%.
Taken together, the risk of hunger was projected to remain very high in several developing countries. More
detailed analysis of rice yields by the International Rice Research Institute forecast 20% reduction in yields over
Climate change and agriculture 275
the region per degree Celsius of temperature rise. Rice becomes sterile if exposed to temperatures above 35
degrees for more than one hour during flowering and consequently produces no grain.
• Australia and New Zealand: Hennessy et al.. (2007:509) assessed the literature for this region.[11] They
concluded that without further adaptation to climate change, projected impacts would likely be substantial: By
2030, production from agriculture and forestry was projected to decline over much of southern and eastern
Australia, and over parts of eastern New Zealand; In New Zealand, initial benefits were projected close to major
rivers and in western and southern areas. Hennessy et al.. (2007:509) placed high confidence in these projections.
• Europe: With high confidence, IPCC (2007:14) projected that in Southern Europe, climate change would reduce
crop productivity. In Central and Eastern Europe, forest productivity was expected to decline. In Northern
Europe, the initial effect of climate change was projected to increase crop yields.
• Latin America: With high confidence, IPCC (2007:14) projected that in drier areas of Latin America,
productivity of some important crops would decrease and livestock productivity decline, with adverse
consequences for food security. In temperate zones, soybean yields were projected to increase.
• North America:
• According to a paper by Deschenes and Greenstone (2006), predicted increases in temperature and
precipitation will have virtually no effect on the most important crops in the US.[12]
• With high confidence, IPCC (2007:14-15) projected that over the first few decades of this century, moderate
climate change would increase aggregate yields of rain-fed agriculture by 5–20%, but with important
variability among regions. Major challenges were projected for crops that are near the warm end of their
suitable range or which depend on highly utilized water resources.
• Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic):
• For the Guardian newspaper, Brown (2005) reported on how climate change had affected agriculture in
Iceland. Rising temperatures had made the widespread sowing of barley possible, which had been untenable
twenty years ago. Some of the warming was due to a local (possibly temporary) effect via ocean currents from
the Caribbean, which had also affected fish stocks.[13]
• Anisimov et al.. (2007:655) assessed the literature for this region.[14] With medium confidence, they concluded
that the benefits of a less severe climate were dependent on local conditions. One of these benefits was judged
to be increased agricultural and forestry opportunities.
• Small islands: In a literature assessment, Mimura et al.. (2007:689) concluded, with high confidence, that
subsistence and commercial agriculture would very likely be adversely affected by climate change.[15]
Poverty impacts
Climate change and agriculture 276
Researchers at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) have investigated the potential impacts climate change
could have on agriculture, and how this would affect attempts at alleviating poverty in the developing world.[18]
They argued that the effects from moderate climate change are likely to be mixed for developing countries.
However, the vulnerability of the poor in developing countries to short term impacts from climate change, notably
the increased frequency and severity of adverse weather events is likely to have a negative impact. This, they say,
should be taken into account when defining agricultural policy.[18]
climate change, such as an increased frequency of extreme weather events, seasonal shifts, and so on.
In 2005, the Royal Society in London concluded that the purported benefits of elevated carbon dioxide
concentrations are “likely to be far lower than previously estimated” when factors such as increasing ground-level
ozone are taken into account."[21]
Effect on quality
According to the IPCC's TAR, "The importance of climate change impacts on grain and forage quality emerges from
new research. For rice, the amylose content of the grain--a major determinant of cooking quality--is increased under
elevated CO2" (Conroy et al., 1994). Cooked rice grain from plants grown in high-CO2 environments would be
firmer than that from today's plants. However, concentrations of iron and zinc, which are important for human
nutrition, would be lower (Seneweera and Conroy, 1997). Moreover, the protein content of the grain decreases under
combined increases of temperature and CO2 (Ziska et al., 1997)."[22] Studies using FACE have shown that increases
in CO2 lead to decreased concentrations of micronutrients in crop plants.[23] This may have knock-on effects on
other parts of ecosystems as herbivores will need to eat more food to gain the same amount of protein.[24]
Studies have shown that higher CO2 levels lead to reduced plant uptake of nitrogen (and a smaller number showing
the same for trace elements such as zinc) resulting in crops with lower nutritional value.[25] [26] This would primarily
impact on populations in poorer countries less able to compensate by eating more food, more varied diets, or
possibly taking supplements.
Reduced nitrogen content in grazing plants has also been shown to reduce animal productivity in sheep, which
depend on microbes in their gut to digest plants, which in turn depend on nitrogen intake.[25]
would induce a greater rate in the production of minerals, lessening the soil organic matter content, the atmospheric
CO2 concentration would tend to increase it.
Normal planting of rice crops begin in October and harevest by January. However, as climate change affects ENSO
and consequently delays planting, harvesting will be late and in drier conditions, resulting in less potential yields.[40]
Land use
Agriculture contributes to greenhouse gas increases through land use in four main ways:
• CO2 releases linked to deforestation
• Methane releases from rice cultivation
• Methane releases from enteric fermentation in cattle
• Nitrous oxide releases from fertilizer application
Together, these agricultural processes comprise 54% of methane emissions, roughly 80% of nitrous oxide emissions,
and virtually all carbon dioxide emissions tied to land use.[1]
The planet's major changes to land cover since 1750 have resulted from deforestation in temperate regions: when
forests and woodlands are cleared to make room for fields and pastures, the albedo of the affected area increases,
which can result in either warming or cooling effects, depending on local conditions.[43] Deforestation also affects
regional carbon reuptake, which can result in increased concentrations of CO2, the dominant greenhouse gas.[44]
Land-clearing methods such as slash and burn compound these effects by burning biomatter, which directly releases
greenhouse gases and particulate matter such as soot into the air.
Livestock
Livestock and livestock-related activities such as deforestation and increasingly fuel-intensive farming practices are
responsible for over 18% of human-made greenhouse gas emissions, including:
• 9% of global carbon dioxide emissions
• 35-40% of global methane emissions (chiefly due to enteric fermentation and manure)
• 64% of global nitrous oxide emissions (chiefly due to fertilizer use.[45] )
Livestock activities also contribute disproportionately to land-use effects, since crops such as corn and alfalfa are
cultivated in order to feed the animals.
Worldwide, livestock production occupies 70% of all land used for agriculture, or 30% of the land surface of the
Earth.[46]
Climate change and agriculture 280
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[16] Australian Drought and Climate Change (http:/ / www. lilith-ezine. com/ articles/ environmental/ Australian-Drought. html), retrieved on
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[17] NOAA (2006-01-30). "NOAA reports 2005 global temperature similar to 1998 record warm year" (http:/ / www. publicaffairs. noaa. gov/
releases2006/ jan06/ noaa06-013. html). Press release. . Retrieved 2007-07-26.
[18] "Climate change, agricultural policy and poverty reduction – how much do we know?" (http:/ / www. odi. org. uk/ resources/ details.
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[19] F. Woodward and C. Kelly (1995). "The influence of CO2 concentration on stomatal density". New Phytologist 131: 311–327.
doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.1995.tb03067.x.
[20] Bert G. Drake; Gonzalez-Meler, Miquel A.; Long, Steve P. (1997). "More efficient plants: A Consequence of Rising Atmospheric CO2?".
Annual Review of Plant Physiology and Plant Molecular Biology 48: 609. doi:10.1146/annurev.arplant.48.1.609. PMID 15012276.
[21] Royal Society (2005) [Impact of climate change on crops worse than previously thought http:/ / royalsociety. org/ General_WF.
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[22] Climate Change 2001: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg2/ 208. htm)
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[23] Loladze, I (2002). "Rising atmospheric CO2 and human nutrition: toward globally imbalanced plant stoichiometry?". Trends in Ecology &
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[25] The Food, the Bad, and the Ugly (http:/ / www. grist. org/ news/ maindish/ 2005/ 07/ 12/ scherer-plantchem/ ) Scherer, Glenn Grist July,
2005
[26] Plague of plenty (http:/ / www. math. unl. edu/ ~iloladze/ NewSci/ NewSci. htm) New Scientist Archive
[27] German Research Indicates Warming in Siberia, Global Warming Today, Global Warming Today
[28] Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring 5Roshydromet), Strategic Forecast of Climate Change in the Russian
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[29] The Danger of Climate Change for Russia – Expected Losses and Recommendations, By Alexey O. Kokorin and Inna G. Gritsevich,
Moscow, russian analytical digest 23/07 (http:/ / se2. isn. ch/ serviceengine/ FileContent?serviceID=ISFPub&
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[45] Food and Agricultural Organization of the U.N. (http:/ / www. virtualcentre. org/ en/ library/ key_pub/ longshad/ A0701E00. pdf) retrieved
25 June 2007
[46] Food and Agricultural Organization of the U.N. (http:/ / www. virtualcentre. org/ en/ library/ key_pub/ longshad/ A0701E00. pdf) retrieved
27 June 2007
Further reading
• Fischer G., Shah M. and van Velthuizen H. (2002) "Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability" (http://
ivm5.ivm.vu.nl/adaptation/project/files/File/ADAPTS/Climate-agri.pdf). International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis. Report prepared under UN Institutional Contract Agreement 1113 for World Summit on
Sustainable Development. Laxenburg, Austria
External links
• Climate change (http://www.fao.org/climatechange/en/) on the Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations website.
• A comprehensive report (http://www.ifpri.org/publication/climate-change-1) on the relationship between
climate change, agriculture and food security by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). See
also an overview of IFPRI's climate change research (http://www.ifpri.org/book-775/ourwork/researcharea/
climate-change).
• LADSS - Climate Change and Agriculture (http://www.macaulay.ac.uk/LADSS/climate_change_wshop.
html) - Are we asking the right questions?
Climate change and agriculture 282
• Food Security of Women in the Context of Climate Change - Online Discussion Forum (http://km.fao.org/fsn/
)
• The Guardian's [climate change coverage http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/climate-change] often
includes discussions about food security, including the June 30, 2005 article, One in six countries facing food
shortage (http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1517831,00.html)
• How is climate change threatening agriculture? (http://www.greenfacts.org/en/agriculture-iaastd/index.
htm#4) section of official popularized version of IAASTD synthesis report (2008)
• Impacts of Climate Change on European Forests and Options for Adaptation (http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/
analysis/external/euro_forests/index_en.htm) Report to the European Commission Directorate-General for
Agriculture and Rural Development; report written by European Forest Institute (EFI) with University of Natural
Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Institute of Forest Entomology, Forest Pathology and
Forest Protection, INRA - UMR Biodiversité Gènes et Communautés and Italian Academy of Forest Sciences
(IAFS) (November 2008)
• Climate Change and Agriculture in the ECA region (http://www.worldbank.org/eca/climateandagriculture) a
regional look by the World Bank at climate change and agriculture in countries in Europe and Central Asia.
• Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (http://www.ccafs.cgiar.org/) Global scientific research
program that seeks to overcome the threats to agriculture and food security in a changing climate, exploring new
ways of helping vulnerable rural communities adjust to global changes in climate.
Impacts
Unchecked global warming could affect most terrestrial ecoregions. Increasing global temperature means that
ecosystems will change; some species are being forced out of their habitats (possibly to extinction) because of
changing conditions, while others are flourishing. Secondary effects of global warming, such as lessened snow
cover, rising sea levels, and weather changes, may influence not only human activities but also the ecosystem.
For the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, experts assessed the literature on the impacts of climate change on
ecosystems. Rosenzweig et al. (2007) concluded that over the last three decades, human-induced warming had likely
had a discernable influence on many physical and biological systems (p. 81).[1] Schneider et al. (2007) concluded,
with very high confidence, that regional temperature trends had already affected species and ecosystems around the
world (p. 792).[2] With high confidence, they concluded that climate change would result in the extinction of many
species and a reduction in the diversity of ecosystems (p. 792).
• Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity: With a warming of 3°C, relative to 1990 levels, it is likely that global
terrestrial vegetation would become a net source of carbon (Schneider et al., 2007:792). With high confidence,
Schneider et al. (2007:788) concluded that a global mean temperature increase of around 4°C (above the
1990-2000 level) by 2100 would lead to major extinctions around the globe.
• Marine ecosystems and biodiversity: With very high confidence, Schneider et al. (2007:792) concluded that a
warming of 2°C above 1990 levels would result in mass mortality of coral reefs globally.
• Freshwater ecosystems: Above about a 4°C increase in global mean temperature by 2100 (relative to
1990-2000), Schneider et al. (2007:789) concluded, with high confidence, that many freshwater species would
become extinct.
Studying the association between Earth climate and extinctions over the past 520 million years, scientists from the
University of York write, "The global temperatures predicted for the coming centuries may trigger a new ‘mass
Climate change and ecosystems 283
extinction event’, where over 50 per cent of animal and plant species would be wiped out."[3]
Many of the species at risk are Arctic and Antarctic fauna such as polar bears[4] and Emperor Penguins.[5] In the
Arctic, the waters of Hudson Bay are ice-free for three weeks longer than they were thirty years ago, affecting polar
bears, which prefer to hunt on sea ice.[6] Species that rely on cold weather conditions such as gyrfalcons, and Snowy
Owls that prey on lemmings that use the cold winter to their advantage may be hit hard.[7] [8] Marine invertebrates
enjoy peak growth at the temperatures they have adapted to, regardless of how cold these may be, and cold-blooded
animals found at greater latitudes and altitudes generally grow faster to compensate for the short growing season.[9]
Warmer-than-ideal conditions result in higher metabolism and consequent reductions in body size despite increased
foraging, which in turn elevates the risk of predation. Indeed, even a slight increase in temperature during
development impairs growth efficiency and survival rate in rainbow trout.[10]
Rising temperatures are beginning to have a noticeable impact on birds,[11] and butterflies have shifted their ranges
northward by 200 km in Europe and North America. Plants lag behind, and larger animals' migration is slowed down
by cities and roads. In Britain, spring butterflies are appearing an average of 6 days earlier than two decades ago.[12]
A 2002 article in Nature[13] surveyed the scientific literature to find recent changes in range or seasonal behaviour by
plant and animal species. Of species showing recent change, 4 out of 5 shifted their ranges towards the poles or
higher altitudes, creating "refugee species". Frogs were breeding, flowers blossoming and birds migrating an average
2.3 days earlier each decade; butterflies, birds and plants moving towards the poles by 6.1 km per decade. A 2005
study concludes human activity is the cause of the temperature rise and resultant changing species behaviour, and
links these effects with the predictions of climate models to provide validation for them.[14] Scientists have observed
that Antarctic hair grass is colonizing areas of Antarctica where previously their survival range was limited.[15]
Mechanistic studies have documented extinctions due to recent climate change: McLaughlin et al. documented two
populations of Bay checkerspot butterfly being threatened by precipitation change.[16] Parmesan states, "Few studies
have been conducted at a scale that encompasses an entire species"[17] and McLaughlin et al. agreed "few
mechanistic studies have linked extinctions to recent climate change."[16] Daniel Botkin and other authors in one
study believe that projected rates of extinction are overestimated.[18]
Many species of freshwater and saltwater plants and animals are dependent on glacier-fed waters to ensure a cold
water habitat that they have adapted to. Some species of freshwater fish need cold water to survive and to reproduce,
and this is especially true with Salmon and Cutthroat trout. Reduced glacier runoff can lead to insufficient stream
flow to allow these species to thrive. Ocean krill, a cornerstone species, prefer cold water and are the primary food
source for aquatic mammals such as the Blue Whale.[19] Alterations to the ocean currents, due to increased
freshwater inputs from glacier melt, and the potential alterations to thermohaline circulation of the worlds oceans,
may affect existing fisheries upon which humans depend as well.
The white lemuroid possum, only found in the mountain forests of northern Queensland, has been named as the first
mammal species to be driven extinct by global warming. The White Possum has not been seen in over three years.
These possums cannot survive extended temperatures over 30 °C (86 °F), which occurred in 2005. A final expedition
to uncover any surviving White Possums is scheduled for 2009.[20]
Climate change and ecosystems 284
Forests
Pine forests in British Columbia have been devastated
by a pine beetle infestation, which has expanded
unhindered since 1998 at least in part due to the lack of
severe winters since that time; a few days of extreme
cold kill most mountain pine beetles and have kept
outbreaks in the past naturally contained. The
infestation, which (by November 2008) has killed about
half of the province's lodgepole pines (33 million acres
or 135,000 km²)[21] [22] is an order of magnitude larger
than any previously recorded outbreak.[23] One reason
for unprecedented host tree mortality may be due to
that the mountain pine beetles have higher reproductive
success in lodgepole pine trees growing in areas where
the trees have not experienced frequent beetle epidemics, which includes much of the current outbreak area.[24] In
2007 the outbreak spread, via unusually strong winds, over the continental divide to Alberta. An epidemic also
started, be it at a lower rate, in 1999 in Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana. The United States forest service predicts
that between 2011 and 2013 virtually all 5 million acres (20000 km2) of Colorado’s lodgepole pine trees over five
inches (127 mm) in diameter will be lost.[22]
As the northern forests are a carbon sink, while dead forests are a major carbon source, the loss of such large areas of
forest has a positive feedback on global warming. In the worst years, the carbon emission due to beetle infestation of
forests in British Columbia alone approaches that of an average year of forest fires in all of Canada or five years
worth of emissions from that country's transportation sources.[23] [25]
Besides the immediate ecological and economic impact, the huge dead forests provide a fire risk. Even many healthy
forests appear to face an increased risk of forest fires because of warming climates. The 10-year average of boreal
forest burned in North America, after several decades of around 10,000 km² (2.5 million acres), has increased
steadily since 1970 to more than 28,000 km² (7 million acres) annually.[26] Though this change may be due in part to
changes in forest management practices, in the western U.S., since 1986, longer, warmer summers have resulted in a
fourfold increase of major wildfires and a sixfold increase in the area of forest burned, compared to the period from
1970 to 1986. A similar increase in wildfire activity has been reported in Canada from 1920 to 1999.[27]
Forest fires in Indonesia have dramatically increased since 1997 as well. These fires are often actively started to clear
forest for agriculture. They can set fire to the large peat bogs in the region and the CO₂released by these peat bog
fires has been estimated, in an average year, to be 15% of the quantity of CO₂produced by fossil fuel combustion.[28]
Mountains
Mountains cover approximately 25 percent of earth's surface and provide a home to more than one-tenth of global
human population. Changes in global climate pose a number of potential risks to mountain habitats.[29] Researchers
expect that over time, climate change will affect mountain and lowland ecosystems, the frequency and intensity of
forest fires, the diversity of wildlife, and the distribution of water.
Studies suggest that a warmer climate in the United States would cause lower-elevation habitats to expand into the
higher alpine zone.[30] Such a shift would encroach on the rare alpine meadows and other high-altitude habitats.
High-elevation plants and animals have limited space available for new habitat as they move higher on the
mountains in order to adapt to long-term changes in regional climate.
Changes in climate will also affect the depth of the mountains snowpacks and glaciers. Any changes in their seasonal
melting can have powerful impacts on areas that rely on freshwater runoff from mountains. Rising temperature may
Climate change and ecosystems 285
cause snow to melt earlier and faster in the spring and shift the timing and distribution of runoff. These changes
could affect the availability of freshwater for natural systems and human uses.[31]
Ecological productivity
• According to a paper by Smith and Hitz (2003:66), it is reasonable to assume that the relationship between
increased global mean temperature and ecosystem productivity is parabolic. Higher carbon dioxide concentrations
will favourably affect plant growth and demand for water. Higher temperatures could initially be favourable for
plant growth. Eventually, increased growth would peak then decline.[32]
• According to IPCC (2007:11), a global average temperature increase exceeding 1.5–2.5°C (relative to the period
1980–99), would likely have a predominantly negative impact on ecosystem goods and services, e.g., water and
food supply.[33]
• Research done by the Swiss Canopy Crane Project [34] suggests that slow-growing trees only are stimulated in
growth for a short period under higher CO2 levels, while faster growing plants like liana benefit in the long term.
In general, but especially in rainforests, this means that liana become the prevalent species; and because they
decompose much faster than trees their carbon content is more quickly returned to the atmosphere. Slow growing
trees incorporate atmospheric carbon for decades.
References
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[2] Schneider, S.H. et al. (2007). "Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation
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[3] Mayhew, Peter J; Gareth B. Jenkins, Timothy G. Benton (October 23, 2007). "A long-term association between global temperature and
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[4] Amstrup, Steven C.; Ian Stirling, Tom S. Smith, Craig Perham, Gregory W. Thiemann (2006-04-27). "Recent observations of intraspecific
predation and cannibalism among polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea". Polar Biology 29 (11): 997–1002.
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[5] Le Bohec, Céline; Joël M. Durant, Michel Gauthier-Clerc, Nils C. Stenseth, Young-Hyang Park, Roger Pradel, David Grémillet, Jean-Paul
Gendner, and Yvon Le Maho (2008-02-11). "King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/
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[6] On Thinning Ice (http:/ / www. lrb. co. uk/ v27/ n01/ byer01_. html) Michael Byers London Review of Books January 2005
[7] Pertti Koskimies (compiler) (1999). "International Species Action Plan for the Gyrfalcon Falco rusticolis" (http:/ / ec. europa. eu/
environment/ nature/ conservation/ wildbirds/ action_plans/ docs/ falco_rusticolis. pdf) (PDF). BirdLife International. . Retrieved 2007-12-28.
[8] "Snowy Owl" (http:/ / aknhp. uaa. alaska. edu/ zoology/ species_ADFG/ ADFG_PDFs/ Birds/ Snowy Owl_ADFG_final_2006. pdf) (PDF).
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[9] Arendt, J.D. (1997). "Adaptive intrinsic growth rates: an integration across taxa" (http:/ / links. jstor. org/
sici?sici=0033-5770(199706)72:2<149:AIGRAI>2. 0. CO;2-X). The Quarterly Review of Biology 72 (2): 149–177. doi:10.1086/419764. .
[10] Biro, P.A., et al. (June 2007). "Mechanisms for climate-induced mortality of fish populations in whole-lake experiments". Proc. Natl. Acad.
Sci. U.S.A. 104 (23): 9715–9. doi:10.1073/pnas.0701638104. ISSN 1091-6490. PMC 1887605. PMID 17535908.
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[12] Walther, Gian-Reto; Eric Post, Peter Convey, Annette Menzel, Camille Parmesan, Trevor J. C. Beebee, Jean-Marc Fromentin, Ove
Hoegh-Guldberg, Franz Bairlein (March 28, 2002). "Ecological responses to recent climate change" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/
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[13] Root, Terry L.; Jeff T. Price, Kimberly R. Hall, Stephen H. Schneider, Cynthia Rosenzweig & Alan Pounds (2003-01-02). "Fingerprints of
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Climate change and ecosystems 286
[14] www.stanford.edu (http:/ / iis-db. stanford. edu/ pubs/ 20887/ PNAS_5_16_05. pdf)
[15] Grass flourishes in warmer Antarctic (http:/ / www. heatisonline. org/ contentserver/ objecthandlers/ index. cfm?id=5014& method=full)
originally from The Times, December 2004
[16] McLaughlin, John F.; et al. (2002-04-30). "Climate change hastens population extinctions" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/
20070604183008/ http:/ / www. nd. edu/ ~hellmann/ pnas. pdf) (PDF). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 99 (9): 6070–4.
doi:10.1073/pnas.052131199. PMC 122903. PMID 11972020. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. nd. edu/ ~hellmann/ pnas. pdf) on
2007-06-04. . Retrieved 2007-03-29.
[17] Permesan, Camille (2006-08-24). "Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change" (http:/ / cns. utexas. edu/
communications/ File/ AnnRev_CCimpacts2006. pdf) (PDF). Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 37: 637–69.
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[18] Botkin, Daniel B.; et al. (March 2007). "Forecasting the Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity" (http:/ / www. imv. dk/ Admin/ Public/
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[19] Lovell, Jeremy (2002-09-09). "Warming Could End Antarctic Species" (http:/ / www. cbsnews. com/ stories/ 2002/ 09/ 09/ tech/
main521258. shtml). CBS News. . Retrieved 2008-01-02.
[20] White possum said to be first victim of global warming (http:/ / www. news. com. au/ couriermail/ story/ 0,23739,24742053-952,00. html)
[21] Natural Resources Canada (http:/ / mpb. cfs. nrcan. gc. ca/ index_e. html)
[22] Jim Robbins, Beetles Kill Millions of Acres of Trees in West (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2008/ 11/ 18/ science/ 18trees. html?em|Bark),
New York Times, 17 November 2008
[23] Kurz WA, Dymond CC, Stinson G, et al. (April 2008). "Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change" (http:/ / www.
nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v452/ n7190/ abs/ nature06777. html). Nature 452 (7190): 987–90. doi:10.1038/nature06777. PMID 18432244. .
[24] Cudmore TJ, Björklund N, Carrollbbb, AL. Lindgren BS. (2010). "Climate change and range expansion of an aggressive bark beetle:
evidence of higher reproductive success in naïve host tree populations". Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1036–43.
doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01848.x.
[25] Pine Forests Destroyed by Beetle Takeover (http:/ / www. npr. org/ templates/ story/ story. php?storyId=89942771), NPR'sTalk of the
Nation, April 25, 2008
[26] US National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (http:/ / www. usgcrp. gov/ usgcrp/ nacc/
education/ alaska/ ak-edu-5. htm) Regional Paper: Alaska
[27] Running SW (August 2006). "Climate change. Is Global Warming causing More, Larger Wildfires?" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/
pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=16825534). Science 313 (5789): 927–8. doi:10.1126/science.1130370. PMID 16825534. .
[28] BBC News: Asian peat fires add to warming (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 4208564. stm)
[29] Nogués-Bravoa D., Araújoc M.B., Erread M.P., Martínez-Ricad J.P. (August–October 2007). "Exposure of global mountain systems to
climate warming during the 21st Century". Global Environmental 17 (3-4): 420–8. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.11.007.
[30] The Potential Effects Of Global Climate Change On The United States (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ climatechange/ effects/ downloads/
potential_effects. pdf) Report to Congress Editors: Joel B. Smith and Dennis Tirpak US-EPA December 1989
[31] United Nations (2002-12-12). "Freshwater Issues at ‘Heart of Humankind’S Hopes for Peace and Development’" (http:/ / www. un. org/
News/ Press/ docs/ 2002/ ENVDEV713. doc. htm). Press release. . Retrieved 2008-02-13.
[32] Smith, J. and Hitz, S. (2003). "OECD Workshop on the Benefits of Climate Policy: Improving Information for Policy Makers. Background
Paper: Estimating Global Impacts from Climate Change" (http:/ / www. oecd. org/ dataoecd/ 9/ 60/ 2482270. pdf). Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development. . Retrieved 2009-06-19.
[33] IPCC (2007). "Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working
Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M.L. Parry et al. (eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports. htm)"]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A..
pp. 7–22. . Retrieved 2009-05-20.
[34] http:/ / pages. unibas. ch/ botschoen/ scc/ index. shtml
Climate change and ecosystems 287
Further reading
• Barnosky, Anthony D. (March 13, 2009). Heatstroke: Nature in an Age of Global Warming (1st ed.). Shearwater.
ISBN 978-1597261975.
• NRC (2008). "Ecological Impacts of Climate Change" (http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12491).
The National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001, USA. pp. 70. Retrieved
2010-03-13.
• Rosset V., Lehmann A. & Oertli B. (2010). "Warmer and richer? Predicting the impact of climate warming on
species richness in small temperate waterbodies". Global Change Biology 16(8): 2376-2387.
doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02206.x.
External links
• The IPCC Working Group II (WG II) website (http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/). This body assesses the
vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of
climate change, and options for adapting to it.
• Health and environmental effects of climate change (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/index.html)
– US Environmental Protection Agency
Specific topics
• See the impacts of climate change happening now on three Australian ecosystems: 'Tipping Point', Catalyst,
ABC-TV (http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s1647466.htm)
• Climate Change: Coral Reefs on the Edge (http://site.videoproject.com/coralreefs/) An online video
presentation by Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Auckland
Drought
A drought (or drouth [archaic]) is an extended period
of months or years when a region notes a deficiency in
its water supply. Generally, this occurs when a region
receives consistently below average precipitation. It can
have a substantial impact on the ecosystem and
agriculture of the affected region. Although droughts
can persist for several years, even a short, intense
drought can cause significant damage[1] and harm the Fields outside Benambra, Victoria, Australia suffering from drought
conditions.
local economy.[2]
This global phenomenon has a widespread impact on agriculture. The United Nations estimates that an area of fertile
soil the size of Ukraine is lost every year because of drought, deforestation, and climate instability.[3] Lengthy
periods of drought have long been a key trigger for mass migration and played a key role in a number of ongoing
migrations and other humanitarian crises in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel.
Drought 288
Consequences
Periods of drought can have significant environmental, agricultural,
health, economic and social consequences. The effect varies according
to vulnerability. For example, subsistence farmers are more likely to
migrate during drought because they do not have alternative food
sources. Areas with populations that depend on subsistence farming as
a major food source are more vulnerable to drought-triggered famine.
Drought can also reduce water quality, because lower water flows
reduce dilution of pollutants and increase contamination of remaining
water sources. Common consequences of drought include:
• Diminished crop growth or yield productions and carrying capacity
for livestock
• Dust bowls, themselves a sign of erosion, which further erode the
landscape
• Dust storms, when drought hits an area suffering from
desertification and erosion
• Famine due to lack of water for irrigation
• Habitat damage, affecting both terrestrial and aquatic wildlife[4] Dry earth in the Sonoran desert, Mexico.
Globally
Drought is a normal, recurring feature of the climate in most parts of the world. It is among the earliest documented
climatic events, present in the Epic of Gilgamesh and tied to the biblical story of Joseph's arrival in and the later
Exodus from Ancient Egypt.[11] Hunter-gatherer migrations in 9,500 BC Chile have been linked to the
phenomenon,[12] as has the exodus of early man out of Africa and into the rest of the world around 135,000 years
ago.[13]
Modern peoples can effectively mitigate much of the impact of drought through irrigation and crop rotation. Failure
to develop adequate drought mitigation strategies carries a grave human cost in the modern era, exacerbated by
ever-increasing population densities.
Drought 289
Regions
Recurring droughts leading to desertification in the Horn of Africa
have created grave ecological catastrophes, prompting massive food
shortages, still recurring.[16] To the north-west of the Horn, the Darfur
conflict in neighboring Sudan, also affecting Chad, was fueled by
decades of drought; combination of drought, desertification and
overpopulation are among the causes of the Darfur conflict, because
the Arab Baggara nomads searching for water have to take their
livestock further south, to land mainly occupied by non-Arab farming
peoples.[17]
By far the largest part of Australia is desert or semi-arid lands commonly known as the outback. A 2005 study by
Australian and American researchers investigated the desertification of the interior, and suggested that one
explanation was related to human settlers who arrived about 50,000 years ago. Regular burning by these settlers
could have prevented monsoons from reaching interior Australia.[29] In June 2008 it became known that an expert
panel had warned of long term, maybe irreversible, severe ecological damage for the whole Murray-Darling basin if
it does not receive sufficient water by October.[30] Australia could experience more severe droughts and they could
become more frequent in the future, a government-commissioned report said on July 6, 2008.[31] The Australian of
the year 2007, environmentalist Tim Flannery, predicted that unless it made drastic changes, Perth in Western
Australia could become the world’s first ghost metropolis, an abandoned city with no more water to sustain its
population.[32]
East Africa currently faces its worst drought in decades,[33] [34] with crops and livestock destroyed.[35] The U.N.
World Food Programme recently said that nearly four million Kenyans urgently needed food.[36]
Drought 290
Causes
Generally, rainfall is related to the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere,
combined with the upward forcing of the air mass containing that water vapor. If
either of these are reduced, the result is a drought. This can be triggered by an above
average prevalence of high pressure systems, winds carrying continental, rather than
oceanic air masses (i.e. reduced water content), and ridges of high pressure areas
form with behaviors which prevent or restrict the developing of thunderstorm
activity or rainfall over one certain region. Oceanic and atmospheric weather cycles
such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) make drought a regular recurring
feature of the Americas along the Pacific coast and Australia. Guns, Germs, and
Steel author Jared Diamond sees the stark impact of the multi-year ENSO cycles on
Australian weather patterns as a key reason that Australian aborigines remained a
hunter-gatherer society rather than adopting agriculture.[37] Another climate
oscillation known as the North Atlantic Oscillation has been tied to droughts in
Mongolian gazelle dead of
drought.
northeast Spain.[38]
Human activity can directly trigger exacerbating factors such as over farming,
[39]
excessive irrigation, deforestation, and erosion adversely impact the ability of the land to capture and hold
water.[40] While these tend to be relatively isolated in their scope, activities resulting in global climate change are
expected to trigger droughts with a substantial impact on agriculture[41] throughout the world, and especially in
developing nations.[42] [43] [44] Overall, global warming will result in increased world rainfall.[45] Along with drought
in some areas, flooding and erosion will increase in others. Paradoxically, some proposed solutions to global
warming that focus on more active techniques, solar radiation management through the use of a space sunshade for
one, may also carry with them increased chances of drought.[46]
Types of drought
As a drought persists, the conditions surrounding it gradually worsen
and its impact on the local population gradually increases. People tend
to define droughts in three main ways:[47]
1. Meteorological drought is brought about when there is a prolonged
period with less than average precipitation. Meteorological drought
usually precedes the other kinds of drought.
2. Agricultural droughts are droughts that affect crop production or the
ecology of the range. This condition can also arise independently
from any change in precipitation levels when soil conditions and Ship stranded by the retreat of the Aral Sea.
erosion triggered by poorly planned agricultural endeavors cause a
shortfall in water available to the crops. However, in a traditional drought, it is caused by an extended period of
below average precipitation.
3. Hydrological drought is brought about when the water reserves available in sources such as aquifers, lakes are
reservoirs fall below the statistical average. Hydrological drought tends to show up more slowly because it
involves stored water that is used but not replenished. Like an agricultural drought, this can be triggered by more
than just a loss of rainfall. For instance, Kazakhstan was recently awarded a large amount of money by the World
Bank to restore water that had been diverted to other nations from the Aral Sea under Soviet rule.[48] Similar
circumstances also place their largest lake, Balkhash, at risk of completely drying out.[49]
Drought 291
References
[1] Living With Drought (http:/ / www. bom. gov. au/ climate/ drought/ livedrought. shtml)
[2] Australian Drought and Climate Change (http:/ / www. lilith-ezine. com/ articles/ environmental/ Australian-Drought. html), retrieved on
June 7th 2007.
[3] 2008: The year of global food crisis (http:/ / www. heraldscotland. com/ 2008-the-year-of-global-food-crisis-1. 828546)
[4] C.Michael Hogan. 2010. Abiotic factor. Ed. Emily Monosson. Encyclopedia of Earth. National Council for Science and the Environment,
Washignton DC (http:/ / www. eoearth. org/ article/ Abiotic_factor?topic=49461)
[5] U.S. drought may dry up coolant water, close plants - The China Post (http:/ / news. google. com/ archivesearch/ url?sa=t& ct=res& cd=2-0&
url=http:/ / www. chinapost. com. tw/ international/ 2008/ 01/ 25/ 140525/ U. S. -drought. htm& ei=W7U6SLmGBp7y6AHmp5AS&
usg=AFQjCNHOkKFUWf2PwD3_gL2GOjsByAQSDg)
[6] Drought affecting US hydroelectric production | Daily Estimate (http:/ / www. dailyestimate. com/ article. asp?idcategory=35& idSub=175&
idArticle=12286)
[7] Parched village sues to shut tap at Coke March 6, 2005 (http:/ / www. sfgate. com/ cgi-bin/ article. cgi?file=/ c/ a/ 2005/ 03/ 06/
MNGE2BL7161. DTL)
[8] Greenpeace reports on a Swedish drought and its potential impact on their nuclear power industry. 4 August 2006 (http:/ / www. greenpeace.
org/ international/ news/ sweden-nuclear-closure-040806)
[9] Australians Face Snake Invasion. (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ asia-pacific/ 6282075. stm)
[10] Texas Forest Service description of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) from 27 December 2002 (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/
20030711082443/ http:/ / txforestservice. tamu. edu/ shared/ article. asp?DocumentID=406& mc=fire)
[11] BBC - Weather Centre - Features - History and Religion - Weather in the Bible - Drought and Famine (http:/ / www. bbc. co. uk/ weather/
features/ bible_drought. shtml)
[12] Ancient Chile Migration Mystery Tied to Drought (http:/ / news. nationalgeographic. com/ news/ 2002/ 10/ 1024_021024_ChileAtacama.
html)
[13] Drought pushed ancient African immigration (http:/ / azstarnet. com/ all-headlines/ 205715m/ )
[14] Disappearing Lakes, Shrinking Seas (http:/ / www. earth-policy. org/ index. php?/ plan_b_updates/ 2005/ update47)
[15] Shrinking African Lake Offers Lesson on Finite Resources (http:/ / news. nationalgeographic. com/ news/ 2001/ 04/ 0426_lakechadshrinks.
html)
Drought 292
[16] Sara Pantuliano and Sara Pavanello (2009) Taking drought into account Addressing chronic vulnerability among pastoralists in the Horn of
Africa (http:/ / www. odi. org. uk/ resources/ details. asp?id=3591& title=drought-livelihoods-pastoralists-humanitarian) Overseas
Development Institute
[17] Looking to water to find peace in Darfur (http:/ / www. alertnet. org/ db/ blogs/ 1265/ 2007/ 06/ 30-100806-1. htm)
[18] Big melt threatens millions, says UN (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070819200515/ http:/ / www. peopleandplanet. net/ pdoc.
php?id=3024)
[19] Ganges, Indus may not survive: climatologists (http:/ / www. rediff. com/ news/ 2007/ jul/ 24indus. htm)
[20] Glaciers melting at alarming speed (http:/ / english. peopledaily. com. cn/ 90001/ 90781/ 90879/ 6222327. html)
[21] Himalaya glaciers melt unnoticed (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 3998967. stm)
[22] Glaciers Are Melting Faster Than Expected, UN Reports (http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com/ releases/ 2008/ 03/ 080317154235. htm)
[23] Water shortage worst in decades, official says (http:/ / articles. latimes. com/ 2008/ may/ 02/ local/ me-snowpack2), Los Angeles Times
[24] Environmental News Service - Amazon Drought Worst in 100 Years (http:/ / www. ens-newswire. com/ ens/ oct2005/ 2005-10-24-05. asp)
[25] Drought Threatens Amazon Basin - Extreme conditions felt for second year running (http:/ / www. commondreams. org/ headlines06/
0717-07. htm)
[26] Amazon rainforest 'could become a desert' (http:/ / www. independent. co. uk/ arts-entertainment/
law-mixed-year-begins-and-ends-wrapped-up-in-straw-1191932. html), The Independent, July 23, 2006. Retrieved September 28, 2006.
[27] Dying Forest: One year to save the Amazon (http:/ / www. independent. co. uk/ news/ fishermen-braced-for-quota-cuts-1191880. html), The
Independent, July 23, 2006. Retrieved September 28, 2006.
[28] Climate change a threat to Amazon rainforest, warns WWF (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20080518192545/ http:/ / www. panda. org/
news_facts/ newsroom/ index. cfm?uNewsID=64220), World Wide Fund for Nature, March 22, 2006. Retrieved September 28, 2006.
[29] Sensitivity of the Australian Monsoon to insolation and vegetation: Implications for human impact on continental moisture balance (http:/ /
www. geosociety. org/ news/ pr/ 05-01. htm), Geological Society of America
[30] Australian rivers 'face disaster' (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ asia-pacific/ 7460492. stm), BBC News
[31] Australia faces worse, more frequent droughts: study (http:/ / www. reuters. com/ article/ idUSSYD6747620080707), Reuters
[32] Metropolis strives to meet its thirst (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 6620919. stm), BBC News
[33] " East Africa's drought: A catastrophe is looming (http:/ / www. economist. com/ node/ 14506436?story_id=14506436)". The Economist.
September 24, 2009.
[34] " Kenya drought sparks deadly clashes (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ news/ stories/ 2009/ 09/ 21/ 2692148. htm)". ABC News. September 21,
2009.
[35] " Kenya Devastated by Massive Drought (http:/ / www. pbs. org/ newshour/ bb/ africa/ july-dec09/ drought_10-13. html)". PBS NewsHour.
October 13, 2009.
[36] " Lush Land Dries Up, Withering Kenya’s Hopes (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2009/ 09/ 08/ world/ africa/ 08kenya. html)". The New York
Times. September 9, 2009.
[37] Guns, Germs, and Steel by Jared Diamond 1997, pgs 308-309
[38] Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano & José M. Cuadrat (2007-03-14). "North Atlantic oscillation control of droughts in north-east Spain: evaluation
since 1600 A.D." (https:/ / www. cfa. harvard. edu/ ~wsoon/ ChristopherMonckton08-d/
Vicente-SerranoCuadrat07-NAOonNESpainDroughts. pdf). Climatic Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9285-9. . Retrieved 2010-11-23.
[39] A biblical tragedy as Sea of Galilee faces drought (http:/ / www. belfasttelegraph. co. uk/ news/ world-news/
a-biblical-tragedy-as-sea-of-galilee-faces-drought-13956116. html) Belfast Telegraph
[40] Kenya: Deforestation exacerbates droughts, floods (http:/ / forests. org/ shared/ reader/ welcome. aspx?linkid=63511& keybold=climate
drought water catchment)
[41] [[NOAA (http:/ / www. economics. noaa. gov/ library/ documents/ benefits_of_weather_and_climate_forecasts/
drought-climate_change-implications_for_west. doc)] Drought and climate change: implications for the West] December 2002
[42] Record rise in wheat price prompts UN official to warn that surge in food prices may trigger social unrest in developing countries (http:/ /
www. finfacts. com/ irelandbusinessnews/ publish/ article_1011078. shtml)
[43] Fuel costs, drought influence price increase (http:/ / www. timesdaily. com/ article/ 20070914/ NEWS/ 709140329/ 1011/ RSS&
source=RSS)
[44] Nigerian Scholar Links Drought, Climate Change to Conflict Africa Oct, 2005 (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20051028012509/ http:/ /
usinfo. state. gov/ af/ Archive/ 2005/ Oct/ 26-779234. html)
[45] Is Water the New Oil? (http:/ / www. commondreams. org/ headline/ 2008/ 11/ 02-2)
[46] Sunshade' for global warming could cause drought (http:/ / www. newscientist. com/ article/ dn12397) 2 August 2007 New Scientist,
Catherine Brahic
[47] [[NOAA (http:/ / www. nws. noaa. gov/ om/ brochures/ climate/ Drought. pdf)] factsheet], retrieved April 10, 2007
[48] BBC article on the World Bank loan to save the Aral Sea (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ asia-pacific/ 6538219. stm)
[49] BBC article from 2004 concerning the risk of Kazakhstan losing the lake (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ asia-pacific/ 3397077. stm)
[50] Cloud seeding helps alleviate drought (http:/ / www. chinadaily. com. cn/ english/ doc/ 2004-07/ 24/ content_351196. htm)
[51] BBC's (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ programmes/ from_our_own_correspondent/ 6530453. stm) From Our Own Correspondent on khat
water usage
Drought 293
External links
• Water scarcity (http://www.fao.org/nr/water/issues/scarcity.html) from FAO Water (Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations)
• Water Life and Civilisation (http://www.waterlifecivilisation.org/) project that assess how the changes in
hydrological climate have impacted human activities.
• US Economic Costs of Drought (http://www.economics.noaa.gov/?goal=climate&file=events/drought/)
NOAA Economics
• Catastrophic drought is coming back (http://blog.longnow.org/2007/03/10/
brian-fagan-catastrophic-drought-is-coming-back/), Brian M. Fagan lecture for the Long Now Foundation ( MP3
(http://web.archive.org/web/20070715170055/http://media.longnow.org/seminars/salt-020070309-fagan/
salt-020070309-fagan-web.mp3))
Definitions
In this article, the phrase “climate change” is used to describe a change in the climate, measured in terms of its
statistical properties, e.g., the global mean surface temperature.[1] In this context, “climate” is taken to mean the
average weather. Climate can change over period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The
classical time period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization. The climate change referred
to may be due to natural causes, e.g., changes in the sun's output, or due to human activities, e.g., changing the
composition of the atmosphere.[2] Any human-induced changes in climate will occur against the “background” of
natural climatic variations (see attribution of recent climate change for more information).
In this article, the phrase “global warming” refers to the change in the Earth's global average surface temperature.[3]
Measurements show a global temperature increase of 1.4 °F (0.78 °C) between the years 1900 and 2005. Global
warming is closely associated with a broad spectrum of other climate changes, such as increases in the frequency of
intense rainfall, decreases in snow cover and sea ice, more frequent and intense heat waves, rising sea levels, and
widespread ocean acidification.[4]
decades to centuries for stock levels to decline significantly. The time required for stocks to depreciate depends
on the physical process of GHG removal. The stocks of GHGs with relatively short atmospheric lifetimes, such as
methane, depreciate more quickly than the stocks of GHGs with longer atmospheric lifetimes, e.g., HFCs.
• Impact data: Predictions of the physical impacts of climate change are based on the work of climate scientists.
Only once (or if) further climate change occurs, will the true social and economic impacts of climate change be
known. (Note: The preceding sentence is from 1995. Climate change is acknowledged by mainstream science to
exist, to be continuing and to be highly likely to be largely caused by human activity)
Scenarios
Socioeconomic scenarios are used by analysts to make projections of future GHG emissions and to assess future
vulnerability to climate change (Carter et al., 2001:151).[7] Producing scenarios requires estimates of future
population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change.
Economic and energy modelling (such as via the World3 or the POLES models) can be used to analyse and quantify
the effects of such drivers.
Emissions scenarios
One type of emissions scenario is called a "global future" scenario. These scenarios can be thought of as stories of
possible futures. They allow the description of factors that are difficult to quantify, such as governance, social
structures, and institutions. Morita et al. (2001:137-142) assessed the literature on global futures scenarios.[8] They
found considerable variety among scenarios, ranging from variants of sustainable development, to the collapse of
social, economic, and environmental systems.
No strong patterns were found in the relationship between economic activity and GHG emissions. Economic growth
was found to be compatible with increasing or decreasing GHG emissions. In the latter case, emissions growth is
mediated by increased energy efficiency, shifts to non-fossil energy sources, and/or shifts to a post-industrial
(service-based) economy.
Factors affecting emissions growth
• Development trends: In producing scenarios, an important consideration is how social and economic
development will progress in developing countries (Fisher et al., 2007:176).[9] If, for example, developing
countries were to follow a development pathway similar to the current industrialized countries, it could lead to a
very large increase in emissions.
• GHG emissions and economic growth: Emissions do not only depend on the growth rate of the economy. Other
factors are listed below:
• Structural changes in the production system.
• Technological patterns in sectors such as energy.
• Geographical distribution of human settlements and urban structures. This affects, for example, transportation
requirements.
• Consumption patterns: e.g., housing patterns, leisure activities, etc.
• Trade patterns: the degree of protectionism and the creation of regional trading blocks can affect availability to
technology.
Economics of global warming 295
Emissions
The Kaya identity expresses the level of energy related CO2 emissions as the product of four indicators (Rogner et
al., 2007, p. 107):[10]
• Carbon intensity. This is the CO2 emissions per unit of total primary energy supply (TPES)
• Energy intensity. This is the TPES per unit of gross domestic product (GDP)
• GDP per capita (GDP/cap)
• Population
GDP/capita and population growth were the main drivers of the increase in global emissions during the last three
decades of the 20th century. At the global scale, declining carbon and energy intensities have been unable to offset
these effects, and consequently, carbon emissions have risen.
• Projections:
• Without additional policies to cut GHG emissions (including efforts to reduce deforestation), they are
projected to increase between 25% and 90% by 2030 relative to their 2000 levels (Rogner et al., 2007:111).
Two thirds to three quarters of the increase in CO2 emissions are projected to come from developing countries,
although the average per capita CO2 emissions in developing country regions will remain substantially lower
than those in developed country regions.
• By 2100, projections range from a 40% reduction to an increase in emissions of 250% above their levels in
2000. Atmospheric concentrations of GHG emissions are unlikely to stabilize this century without major
policy changes.
Concentrations
Rogner et al. (2007:102) reported that the then-current estimated total atmospheric concentration of long-lived
GHGs was around 455 parts-per-million (ppm) CO2-eq (range: 433-477 ppm CO2-eq). The effects of aerosol and
land-use change changes reduced the physical effect (the radiative forcing) of this to 311 to 435 ppm CO2-eq, with a
central estimate of about 375 ppm CO2-eq.
• SRES Projections: At the time they were developed, the range of global emissions projected across all forty of
the SRES scenarios covered the 5th% to 95th% percentile range of the emission scenarios literature (Morita et al.,
2001:146).[8] The forty SRES scenarios are classified into six groups, with an illustrative scenario for each group.
Under these six illustrative scenarios, the projected concentration of CO2 in the year 2100 ranges from 540 to 970
ppm (IPCC, 2001b:8).[11] Uncertainties over aspects of climate science, such as the GHG removal process of
carbon sinks, mean that the total projected concentration ranges from 490 to 1,260 ppm. This compares to a
pre-industrial (taken as the year 1750) concentration of about 280 ppm, and a concentration of about 368 ppm in
the year 2000.
Cost-benefit analysis
Standard cost-benefit analysis can be applied to the problem of climate change (Goldemberg et al.,
1996:24,31-32).[12] This requires (1) the valuation of costs and benefits using the willingness to pay as a measure of
value, and (2) a criterion for accepting or rejecting proposals:
(1) The valuation of costs and benefits of climate change is difficult because some climate change impacts are
difficult to assign a value to, e.g., ecosystems and human health. It is also impossible to know the preferences of
future generations, which affects the valuation of costs and benefits (DeCanio, 2007:4).[13]
(2) The standard criterion is the compensation principle. According to the compensation principle, so long as those
benefitting from a particular project compensate the losers, and there is still something left over, then the result is an
Economics of global warming 296
unambiguous gain in welfare. If there are no mechanisms allowing compensation to be paid, then it is necessary to
assign weights to particular individuals.
One of the mechanisms for compensation is impossible for this problem: mitigation might benefit future generations
at the expense of current generations, but there is no way that future generations can compensate current generations
for the costs of mitigation (DeCanio, 2007:4). On the other hand, should future generations bear most of the costs of
climate change, compensation to them would not be possible (Goldemberg et al., 1996:32). Another transfer for
compensation exists between regions and populations. If, for example, some countries were to benefit from future
climate change but others lose out, there is no guarantee that the winners would compensate the losers.
Risk
In a cost-benefit analysis, an acceptable risk means that the benefits of a climate policy outweigh the costs of the
policy (Halsnæs et al., 2007).[14] The standard rule used by public and private decision makers is that a risk will be
acceptable if the expected net present value is positive. The expected value is the mean of the distribution of
expected outcomes (Goldemberg et al., 1996, p. 25).[12] In other words, it is the average expected outcome for a
particular decision. This criterion has been justified on the basis that:
• a policy's benefits and costs have known probabilities
• economic agents (people and organizations) can diversify their own risk through insurance and other markets.
On the first point, probabilities for climate change are difficult to calculate. Also, some impacts, such as those on
human health and biodiversity, are difficult to value. On the second point, it has been suggested that insurance could
be bought against climate change risks. In practice, however, there are difficulties in implementing the necessary
policies to diversify climate change risks.
Risk
One of the problems of climate change are the large uncertainties over the potential impacts of climate change, and
the costs and benefits of actions taken in response to climate change, e.g., in reducing GHG emissions (Toth et al.,
2001, p. 608).[15] Two related ways of thinking about the problem of climate change decision-making in the presence
of uncertainty are iterative risk management (Fisher et al., 2007;[16] Yohe, 2010)[17] and sequential decision making
(Toth et al., 2001).[18] Considerations in a risk-based approach might include, for example, the potential for
low-probability, worst-case climate change impacts (Barker et al., 2007a).[19]
An approach based on sequential decision making recognises that, over time, decisions related to climate change can
be revised in the light of improved information (Goldemberg et al., 1996, p. 26).[12] This is particularly important
with respect to climate change, due to the long-term nature of the problem. A near-term hedging strategy concerned
with reducing future climate impacts might favour stringent, near-term emissions reductions (Toth et al., 2001,
pp. 612-613).[20] Such an approach would allow for greater future flexibility with regard to a low stabilization target,
e.g., 450 ppmv CO2. To put it differently, stringent near-term emissions abatement can be seen as having an option
value in allowing for lower, long-term stabilization targets. This option may be lost if near-term emissions abatement
is less stringent.
On the other hand, a view may be taken that points to the benefits of improved information over time. This may
suggest an approach where near-term emissions abatement is more modest (Defra/HM Treasury, 2005).[21] Another
way of viewing the problem is to look at the potential irreversibility of future climate change impacts (e.g., damages
to ecosystems) against the irreversibility of making investments in efforts to reduce emissions (Goldemberg et al.,
1996, p. 26; see also Economics of climate change mitigation#Irreversible impacts and policy).
Economics of global warming 297
Portfolio theory
An example of a strategy that is based on risk is portfolio theory. This suggests that a reasonable response to
uncertainty is to have a wide portfolio of possible responses. In the case of climate change, mitigation can be viewed
as an effort to reduce the chance of climate change impacts (Goldemberg et al., 1996, p. 24).[12] Adaptation acts as
insurance against the chance that unfavourable impacts occur. The risk associated with these impacts can also be
spread. As part of a policy portfolio, climate research can help when making future decisions. Technology research
can help to lower future costs.
International insurance
Traditional insurance works by transferring risk to those better able or more willing to bear risk, and also by the
pooling of risk (Goldemberg et al., 1996, p. 25).[12] Since the risks of climate change are, to some extent, correlated,
this reduces the effectiveness of pooling. However, there is reason to believe that different regions will be affected
differently by climate change. This suggests that pooling might be effective. Since developing countries appear to be
potentially most at risk from the effects of climate change, developed countries could provide insurance against these
risks.
Authors have pointed to several reasons why commercial insurance markets cannot adequately cover risks associated
with climate change (Arrow et al., 1996, p. 72).[23] For example, there is no international market where individuals
or countries can insure themselves against losses from climate change or related climate change policies.
Financial markets for risk
There are several options for how insurance could be used in responding to climate change (Arrow et al., 1996,
p. 72).[23] One response could be to have binding agreements between countries. Countries suffering
greater-than-average climate-related losses would be assisted by those suffering less-than-average losses. This would
Economics of global warming 298
be a type of mutual insurance contract. Another approach would be to trade "risk securities" among countries. These
securities would amount to betting on particular climate outcomes.
These two approaches would allow for a more efficient distribution of climate change risks. They would also allow
for different beliefs over future climate outcomes. For example, it has been suggested that these markets might
provide an objective test of the honesty of a particular country's beliefs over climate change. Countries that honestly
believe that climate change presents little risk would be more prone to hold securities against these risks.
Impacts
Distribution of impacts
|Climate change impacts can be measured as an economic cost (Smith et al., 2001, pp. 936-941).[24] This is
particularly well-suited to market impacts, that is impacts that are linked to market transactions and directly affect
GDP. Monetary measures of non-market impacts, e.g., impacts on human health and ecosystems, are more difficult
to calculate. Other difficulties with impact estimates are listed below:
• Knowledge gaps: Calculating distributional impacts requires detailed geographical knowledge, but these are a
major source of uncertainty in climate models.
• Vulnerability: Compared with developed countries, there is a limited understanding of the potential market
sector impacts of climate change in developing countries.
• Adaptation: The future level of adaptive capacity in human and natural systems to climate change will affect
how society will be impacted by climate change. Assessments may under- or overestimate adaptive capacity,
leading to under- or overestimates of positive or negative impacts.
• Socioeconomic trends: Future predictions of development affect estimates of future climate change impacts, and
in some instances, different estimates of development trends lead to a reversal from a predicted positive, to a
predicted negative, impact (and vice versa).
In a literature assessment, Smith et al. (2001, pp. 957-958) concluded, with medium confidence, that:
• climate change would increase income inequalities between and within countries.
• a small increase in global mean temperature (up to 2 °C, measured against 1990 levels) would result in net
negative market sector impacts in many developing countries and net positive market sector impacts in many
developed countries.
With high confidence, it was predicted that with a medium (2-3 °C) to high level of warming (greater than 3 °C),
negative impacts would be exacerbated, and net positive impacts would start to decline and eventually turn negative.
Aggregate impacts
Aggregating impacts adds up the total impact of climate change across sectors and/or regions (IPCC, 2007a,
p. 76).[25] In producing aggregate impacts, there are a number of difficulties, such as predicting the ability of
societies to adapt climate change, and estimating how future economic and social development will progress (Smith
et al., 2001, p. 941).[24] It is also necessary for the researcher to make subjective value judgements over the
importance of impacts occurring in different economic sectors, in different regions, and at different times.
Smith et al. (2001, p. 958) assessed the literature on the aggregate impacts of climate change. With medium
confidence, they concluded that a small increase in global average temperature (up to 2 °C, measured against 1990
levels) would result in an aggregate market sector impact of plus or minus a few percent of world GDP. Smith et al.
(2001) found that for a small to medium (2-3 °C) global average temperature increase, some studies predicted small
net positive market impacts. Most studies they assessed predicted net damages beyond a medium temperature
increase, with further damages for greater (more than 3 °C) temperature rises.
Comparison with SRES projections
Economics of global warming 299
IPCC (2001, p. 74) compared their literature assessment of the aggregate market sector impacts of climate change
against projections of future increases in global mean temperature.[26] Temperature projections were based on the six
illustrative SRES emissions scenarios. Projections for the year 2025 ranged from 0.4 to 1.1 °C. For 2050, projections
ranged from 0.8 to 2.6 °C, and for 2100, 1.4 to 5.8 °C. These temperature projections correspond to atmospheric CO2
concentrations of 405-460 ppm for the year 2025, 445-640 ppm for 2050, and 540-970 ppm for 2100.
Adaptive capacity
Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change. Smit et al. (2001:895-897) described the
determinants of adaptive capacity:[27]
• Economic resources: Wealthier nations are better able to bear the costs of adaptation to climate change than
poorer ones.
• Technology: Lack of technology can impede adaptation.
• Information and skills: Information and trained personnel are required to assess and implement successful
adaptation options.
• Social infrastructure
• Institutions: Nations with well-developed social institutions are believed to have greater adaptive capacity than
those with less effective institutions, typically developing nations and economies in transition.
• Equity: Some believe that adaptive capacity is greater where there are government institutions and arrangements
in place that allow equitable access to resources.
Smit et al. (2001) concluded that:
• countries with limited economic resources, low levels of technology, poor information and skills, poor
infrastructure, unstable or weak institutions, and inequitable empowerment and access to resources have little
adaptive capacity and are highly vulnerable to climate change (p. 879).
• developed nations, broadly speaking, have greater adaptive capacity than developing regions or countries in
economic transition (p. 897).
Economics of global warming 300
Regions
With high confidence, Smith et al. (2001:957-958) concluded that developing countries would tend to be more
vulnerable to climate change than developed countries.[24] Based on then-current development trends, Smith et al.
(2001:940-941) predicted that few developing countries would have the capacity to efficiently adapt to climate
change.
• Africa: In a literature assessment, Boko et al. (2007:435) concluded, with high confidence, that Africa's major
economic sectors had been vulnerable to observed climate variability.[30] This vulnerability was judged to have
contributed to Africa's weak adaptive capacity, resulting in Africa having high vulnerability to future climate
change. It was thought likely that projected sea-level rise would increase the socio-economic vulnerability of
African coastal cities.
• Asia: Lal et al. (2001:536) reviewed the literature on adaptation and vulnerability. With medium confidence, they
concluded that climate change would result in the degradation of permafrost in boreal Asia, worsening the
vulnerability of climate-dependent sectors, and affecting the region's economy.[31]
• Australia and New Zealand: Hennessy et al. (2007:509) reviewed the literature on adaptation and
vulnerability.[32] With high confidence, they concluded that in Australia and New Zealand, most human systems
had considerable adaptive capacity. With medium confidence, some Indigenous communities were judged to have
low adaptive capacity.
• Europe: In a literature assessment, Kundzewicz et al. (2001:643) concluded, with very high confidence, that the
adaptation potential of socioeconomic systems in Europe was relatively high.[33] This was attributed to Europe's
high GNP, stable growth, stable population, and well-developed political, institutional, and technological support
systems.
• Latin America: In a literature assessment, Mata et al. (2001:697) concluded that the adaptive capacity of
socioeconomic systems in Latin America was very low, particularly in regard to extreme weather events, and that
the region's vulnerability was high.[34]
• Polar regions: Anisimov et al. (2001, pp. 804–805) concluded that:[35]
• within the Antarctic and Arctic, at localities where water was close to melting point, socioeconomic systems
were particularly vulnerable to climate change.
• the Arctic would be extremely vulnerable to climate change. Anisimov et al. (2001) predicted that there would
be major ecological, sociological, and economic impacts in the region.
• Small islands: Mimura et al. (2007, p. 689) concluded, with very high confidence, that small islands were
particularly vulnerable to climate change.[36] Partly this was attributed to their low adaptive capacity and the high
costs of adaptation in proportion to their GDP.
Economics of global warming 301
Mitigation
Mitigation of climate change involves actions that are designed to limit the amount of long-term climate change
(Fisher et al., 2007:225).[9] Mitigation may be achieved through the reduction of GHG emissions or through the
enhancement of sinks that absorb GHGs, e.g., forests.
Policies
National
Both climate and non-climate policies can affect emissions growth. Non-climate policies that can affect emissions
are listed below (Bashmakov et al., 2001:409-410):[42]
• Market-orientated reforms can have important impacts on energy use, energy efficiency, and therefore GHG
emissions.
• Price and subsidy policies: Many countries provide subsidies for activities that impact emissions, e.g., subsidies
in the agriculture and energy sectors, and indirect subsidies for transport.
• Market liberalization: Restructuring of energy markets has occurred in several countries and regions. These
policies have mainly been designed to increase competition in the market, but they can have a significant impact
on emissions.
There are a number of policies that might be used to mitigate climate change, including (Bashmakov et al.,
2001:412-422):
• Regulatory standards, e.g., technology or performance standards.
Economics of global warming 302
International
• The Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC sets out legally binding emission reduction commitments for the "Annex B"
countries (Verbruggen, 2007, p. 817).[45] The Protocol defines three international policy instruments ("Flexibility
Mechanisms") which can be used by the Annex B countries to meet their emission reduction commitments.
According to Bashmakov et al. (2001:402), use of these instruments could significantly reduce the costs for
Annex B countries in meeting their emission reduction commitments.[42]
• Other possible policies include internationally coordinated carbon taxes and/or regulation (Bashmakov et al.,
2001:430).
Cost estimates
According to a literature assessment by Barker et al. (2007b:622), mitigation cost estimates depend critically on the
baseline (in this case, a reference scenario that the alternative scenario is compared with), the way costs are
modelled, and assumptions about future government policy.[46] Fisher et al. (2007) estimated macroeconomic costs
in 2030 for multi-gas mitigation (reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and other GHGs, such as methane) as
between a 3% decrease in global GDP to a small increase, relative to baseline.[9] This was for an emissions pathway
consistent with atmospheric stabilization of GHGs between 445 and 710 ppm CO2-eq. In 2050, the estimated costs
for stabilization between 710 and 445 ppm CO2-eq ranged between a 1% gain to a 5.5% decrease in global GDP,
relative to baseline. These cost estimates were supported by a moderate amount of evidence and much agreement in
the literature (IPCC, 2007b:11,18).[47]
Macroeconomic cost estimates made by Fisher et al. (2007:204) were mostly based on models that assumed
transparent markets, no transaction costs, and perfect implementation of cost-effective policy measures across all
regions throughout the 21st century. According to Fisher et al. (2007), relaxation of some or all these assumptions
would lead to an appreciable increase in cost estimates. On the other hand, IPCC (2007b:8) noted that cost estimates
could be reduced by allowing for accelerated technological learning, or the possible use of carbon tax/emission
permit revenues to reform national tax systems.
• Regional costs were estimated as possibly being significantly different from the global average. Regional costs
were found to be largely dependent on the assumed stabilization level and baseline scenario.
• Sectoral costs: In a literature assessment, Barker et al. (2001:563-564), predicted that the renewables sector could
potentially benefit from mitigation.[44] The coal (and possibly the oil) industry was predicted to potentially lose
substantial proportions of output relative to a baseline scenario, with energy-intensive sectors, such as heavy
chemicals, facing higher costs.
2001:958).[24] These issues to do with equity and aggregation cannot be fully resolved by economics (Banuri et al..,
1996:87).[48]
On a utilitarian basis, which has traditionally been used in welfare economics, an argument can be made for richer
countries taking on most of the burdens of mitigation (Halsnæs et al., 2007).[55] However, another result is possible
with a different modeling of impacts. If an approach is taken where the interests of poorer people have lower
weighting, the result is that there is a much weaker argument in favour of mitigation action in rich countries. Valuing
climate change impacts in poorer countries less than domestic climate change impacts (both in terms of policy and
the impacts of climate change) would be consistent with observed spending in rich countries on foreign aid
(Hepburn, 2005;[56] Helm, 2008:229).[57]
In terms of the social welfare function, the different results depend on the elasticity of marginal utility. A declining
marginal utility of consumption means that a poor person is judged to benefit more from increases in consumption
relative to a richer person. A constant marginal utility of consumption does not make this distinction, and leads to the
result that richer countries should mitigate less.
A third approach looks at the problem from the perspective of who has contributed most to the problem. Because the
industrialized countries have contributed more than two-thirds of the stock of human-induced GHGs in the
atmosphere, this approach suggests that they should bear the largest share of the costs. This stock of emissions has
been described as an "environmental debt" (Munasinghe et al., 1996, p. 167).[58] In terms of efficiency, this view is
not supported. This is because efficiency requires incentives to be forward-looking, and not retrospective
(Goldemberg et al., 1996, p. 29). The question of historical responsibility is a matter of ethics. Munasinghe et al.
(1996, p. 167) suggested that developed countries could address the issue by making side-payments to developing
countries.
Trade offs
It is often argued in the literature that there is a trade-off between adaptation and mitigation, in that the resources
committed to one are not available for the other (Schneider et al., 2001:94).[59] This is debatable in practice because
the people who bear emission reduction costs or benefits are often different from those who pay or benefit from
adaptation measures.
There is also a trade off in how much damage from climate change should be avoided. The assumption that it is
always possible to trade off different outcomes is viewed as problematic by many people (Halsnæs et al., 2007).[60]
For example, a trade off might exist between economic growth and damages faced by indigenous cultures.
Some of the literature has pointed to difficulties in these kinds of assumptions. For instance, there may be aversion at
any price towards losing particular species. It has also been suggested that low-probability, extreme outcomes are
overweighted when making choices. This is related to climate change, since the possibility of future abrupt changes
in the climate or the Earth system cannot be ruled out. For example, if the West Antarctic ice sheet was to
disintegrate, it could result in a sea level rise of 4–6 meters over several centuries.
Cost-benefit analysis
In a cost-benefit analysis, the trade offs between climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation are made
explicit. Cost-benefit analyses of climate change are produced using integrated assessment models (IAMs), which
incorporate aspects of the natural, social, and economic sciences.
In an IAM designed for cost-benefit analysis, the costs and benefits of impacts, adaptation and mitigation are
converted into monetary estimates. Some view the monetization of costs and benefits as controversial (see Economic
impacts of climate change#Aggregate impacts). The "optimal" levels of mitigation and adaptation are then resolved
by comparing the marginal costs of action with the marginal benefits of avoided climate change damages (Toth et
al., 2001:654).[20] The decision over what "optimal" is depends on subjective value judgements made by the author
of the study (Azar, 1998).[61]
Economics of global warming 305
There are many uncertainties that affect cost-benefit analysis, for example, sector- and country-specific damage
functions (Toth et al., 2001:654). Another example is with adaptation. The options and costs for adaptation are
largely unknown, especially in developing countries.
Results
A common finding of cost-benefit analysis is that the optimum level of emissions reduction is modest in the
near-term, with more stringent abatement in the longer-term (Stern, 2007:298;[62] Heal, 2008:20;[63] Barker,
2008).[64] This approach might lead to a warming of more than 3 °C above the pre-industrial level (World Bank,
2010:8).[65] In most models, benefits exceed costs for stabilization of GHGs leading to warming of 2.5 °C. No
models suggest that the optimal policy is to do nothing, i.e., allow "business-as-usual" emissions.
Along the efficient emission path calculated by Nordhaus and Boyer (2000) (referred to by Fisher et al.., 2007), the
long-run global average temperature after 500 years increases by 6.2 °C above the 1900 level.[66] Nordhaus and
Boyer (2000) stated their concern over the potentially large and uncertain impacts of such a large environmental
change. It should be noted that the projected temperature in this IAM, like any other, is subject to scientific
uncertainty (e.g., the relationship between concentrations of GHGs and global mean temperature, which is called the
climate sensitivity). Projections of future atmospheric concentrations based on emission pathways are also affected
by scientific uncertainties, e.g., over how carbon sinks, such as forests, will be affected by future climate change.
Klein et al. (2007) concluded that there were few high quality studies in this area, and placed low confidence in the
results of cost-benefit analysis.[67]
Hof et al. (2008) (referred to by World Bank, 2010:8) examined the sensitivity of the optimal climate target to
assumptions about the time horizon, climate sensitivity, mitigation costs, likely damages, and discount rates. The
optimal target was defined as the concentration that would result in the lowest reduction in the present value (i.e.,
discounted) of global consumption. A set of assumptions that included a relatively high climate sensitivity (i.e., a
relatively large global temperature increase for a given increase in GHGs), high damages, a long time horizon, low
discount rates (i.e., future consumption is valued relatively highly), and low mitigation costs, produced an optimum
peak in the concentration of CO2e at 540 parts per million (ppm). Another set of assumptions that assumed a lower
climate sensitivity (lower global temperature increase), lower damages, a shorter time horizon, and a higher discount
rate (present consumption is valued relatively more highly), produced an optimum peaking at 750 ppm.
Strengths
In spite of various uncertainties or possible criticisms of cost-benefit analysis, it does have several strengths:
• It offers an internally consistent and global comprehensive analysis of impacts (Smith et al., 2001:955).[24]
• Sensitivity analysis allows critical assumptions in the analysis to be changed. This can identify areas where the
value of information is highest and where additional research might have the highest payoffs (Downing, et al.,
2001:119).[68]
• As uncertainty is reduced, the integrated models used in producing cost-benefit analysis might become more
realistic and useful.
Geoengineering
Geoengineering are technological efforts to stabilize the climate system by direct intervention in the
Earth-atmosphere-system's energy balance (Verbruggen, 2007, p. 815).[69] The intent of geoengineering is to reduce
the amount of global warming (the observed trend of increased global average temperature (NRC, 2008, p. 2)).[70]
IPCC (2007b:15) concluded that reliable cost estimates for geoengineering options had not been published.[47] This
finding was based on medium agreement in the literature and limited evidence.
Economics of global warming 306
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Economics of global warming 311
Further reading
• DESA (2009) (PDF). World Economic and Social Survey 2009: Promoting Development, Saving the Planet.
Produced by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (http://www.un.
org/esa/policy/wess/wess2009files/wess09/wess2009.pdf). Printed by the United Nations, Publishing Section,
New York. ISBN 9789211091595. Retrieved 2010-06-08.
• IMF (April 2008). "Chapter 4. Climate Change and the Global Economy. In: World Economic and Financial
Surveys: World Economic Outlook: Housing and the Business Cycle" (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/
weo/2008/01/index.htm). IMF website. Retrieved 2010-04-21.
• IPCC (1996). "Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of
Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (J.P. Bruce et al. Eds.)" (http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/climate-changes-1995/
spm-economic-social-dimensions.pdf). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y.,
U.S.A.. Retrieved 2009-09-03.
• Nordhaus, W.D. (ed) (1998). Economics and Policy Issues in Climate Change. RFF Press, Washington, D.C.,
U.S.A.. pp. 336. ISBN 0-915707-95-0.
• Touffut, Jean-Philippe (ed.) (2009). Changing Climate, Changing Economy (http://www.centrecournot.org/
index.php/2009/11/17/changing-climate-changing-economy). Contributors: Michel Armatte, Jean-Pierre
Dupuy, Olivier Godard, Inge Kaul, Thomas Schelling, Robert M. Solow, Nicholas Stern, Thomas Sterner and
Martin L. Weitzman. Cheltenham, UK, and Northampton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar. ISBN 978-1-84844-836-0.
• Editor-in-Chief: Mendelsohn, Robert. Climate Change Economics (CCE) (http://www.worldscinet.com/cce/
cce.shtml). Hackensack, New Jersey, USA: World Scientific. ISSN 2010-0078(P)/2010-0086(E).
External links
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Groups II and III (http://www.ipcc.ch)
• Climate change (http://www.un.org/esa/dsd/dsd_aofw_cc/cc_index.shtml) on the United Nations Economic
and Social Development (UNESD) Division for Sustainable Development website.
• Climate change (http://beta.worldbank.org/climatechange/) at the World Bank.
• IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/) and the International Energy Agency websites (http://www.iea.org/) –
these sites contain publications on climate change.
• Climate change (http://www.oecd.org/env/cc) on the OECD website.
• The multilateral trading system and climate change: introduction (http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/
envir_e/climate_intro_e.htm), the World Trade Organization.
• Task Force on Low-Carbon Economic Prosperity (http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/ghg/index.htm),
the World Economic Forum.
Videos
• Cournot Centre Conference on "The Economic Cost of Climate Change" (http://www.centrecournot.org/index.
php/category/2008_the-economic-cost-of-climate-change). Speakers: Masahiko Aoki (Stanford University),
Michel Armatte (Centre A. Koyré), Jean-Pierre Dupuy (Stanford University), Olivier Godard (C.N.R.S.),
Jean-Charles Hourcade (C.I.R.E.D.), Inge Kaul (Hertie School), Philippe Quirion (C.N.R.S.), Thomas Schelling
(University of Maryland), Robert Solow (MIT), Nicholas Stern (London School of Economics), Thomas Sterner
(University of Gothenburg), and Martin Weitzman (Harvard University). Recorded in 2008.
• "Climate Change and Disasters - Risk and Policy" (http://info.worldbank.org/etools/BSPAN/
PresentationView.asp?PID=2360&EID=1053). A discussion based on the work of William Nordhaus, Sterling
Professor of Economics at Yale University. This discussion was held at the World Bank in 2008.
Economics of global warming 312
Oxfam, the United Nations Development Programme, the United Nations Environment Programme, the World
Health Organization, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, the United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees, the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the World Health
Organization, the Global Humanitarian Forum, Care International, Greenpeace, Maplecroft, the World Bank, and the
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.
Health
Climate change poses a wide range of risks to population health - risks that will increase in future decades, often to
critical levels, if global climate change continues on its current trajectory.[2] The three main categories of health risks
include: (i) direct-acting effects (e.g. due to heat-waves, amplified air pollution, and physical weather disasters), (ii)
impacts mediated via climate-related changes in ecological systems and relationships (e.g. crop yields, mosquito
ecology, marine productivity), and (iii) the more diffuse (indirect) consequences relating to impoverishment,
displacement, resource conflicts (e.g. water), and post-disaster mental health problems.
Climate change thus threatens to slow, halt or reverse international progress towards reducing child under-nutrition,
deaths from diarrheal diseases and the spread of other infectious diseases. Climate change acts predominantly by
exacerbating the existing, often enormous, health problems, especially in the poorer parts of the world. Current
variations in weather conditions already have many adverse impacts on the health of poor people in developing
nations,[8] and these too are likely to be 'multiplied' by the added stresses of climate change.
A changing climate thus affects the prerequisites of population health: clean air and water, sufficient food, natural
constraints on infectious disease agents, and the adequacy and security of shelter. A warmer and more variable
climate leads to higher levels of some air pollutants and more frequent extreme weather events. It increases the rates
and ranges of transmission of infectious diseases through unclean water and contaminated food, and by affecting
vector organisms (such as mosquitoes) and intermediate or reservoir host species that harbour the infectious agent
(such as cattle, bats and rodents). Changes in temperature, rainfall and seasonality compromise agricultural
production in many regions, including some of the least developed countries, thus jeopardising child health and
growth and the overall health and functional capacity of adults. As warming proceeds, the severity (and perhaps
frequency) of weather-related disasters will increase - and appears to have done so in a number of regions of the
world over the past several decades. Therefore, in summary, global warming, together with resultant changes in food
and water supplies, can indirectly cause increases in a range of adverse health outcomes, including malnutrition,
diarrhea, injuries, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and water-borne and insect-transmitted diseases.
Health equity and climate change have a major impact on human health and quality of life, and are interlinked in a
number of ways. The report of the WHO Commission on Social Determinants of Health points out that
disadvantaged communities are likely to shoulder a disproportionate share of the burden of climate change because
of their increased exposure and vulnerability to health threats. Over 90 percent of malaria and diarrhea deaths are
borne by children aged 5 years or younger, mostly in developing countries.[9] Other severely affected population
groups include women, the elderly and people living in small island developing states and other coastal regions,
mega-cities or mountainous areas.[6]
Climate change can lead to dramatic increases in prevalence of a variety of infectious diseases. Beginning in the
mid-70s, there has been an “emergence, resurgence and redistribution of infectious diseases”.[10] Reasons for this are
likely multicausal, dependent on a variety of social, environmental and climatic factors, however, many argue that
the “volatility of infectious disease may be one of the earliest biological expressions of climate instability”.[10]
Though many infectious diseases are affected by changes in climate, vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, dengue
fever and leishmaniasis, present the strongest causal relationship. Malaria in particular, which kills approximately
300,000 children annually, poses the most imminent threat.[11]
Effects of climate change on humans 314
Malaria
Malaria is especially susceptible to changes in the environment as both the pathogen (Plasmodium) and its vector
(mosquitoes) lack the mechanisms necessary to regulate internal temperature and fluid levels. This implies that there
is a limited range of climatic conditions within which the pathogen and vector can survive, reproduce and infect
hosts.[12] Vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, have distinctive characteristics that determine pathogenicity. These
include: the survival and reproduction rate of the vector, the level of vector activity (i.e. the biting or feeding rate),
and the development and reproduction rate of the pathogen within the vector or host.[12] These depend on climatic
conditions such as temperature, precipitation and humidity.
Temperature
The ideal temperature range for malaria-carrying mosquitoes is 15 - 30°C. Temperature exerts varied effects on
survival and reproduction rate of mosquitoes. If initial temperature is high, then an increase in average temperature,
associated with global warming, can decrease the survival and reproduction rate of mosquitoes.
Non-climatic determinants
As one would expect, climate is not the only determining factor in the spread of malaria. A variety of
sociodemographic and environmental influences determine the characteristics of the disease as well.
Sociodemographic factors include, but are not limited to: patterns of human migration and travel, effectiveness of
public health and medical infrastructure in controlling and treating the disease, the extent of anti-malarial drug
resistance and the underlying health status of the population at hand.[12] Environmental factors include: changes in
land-use (e.g. deforestation), expansion of agricultural and water development projects (which tend to increase
mosquito breeding habitat), and the overall trend towards urbanization (i.e. increased concentration of human hosts).
Patz & Olson argue that these changes in landscape can alter local weather more than long term climate change.[11]
For example, the deforestation and cultivation of natural swamps in the African highlands has created conditions
favourable for the survival of mosquito larvae, and has, in part, led to the increasing incidence of malaria.[11] The
effects of these non-climatic factors complicate things and make a direct causal relationship between climate change
and malaria difficult to confirm. It is highly unlikely that climate exerts an isolated effect.
Effects of climate change on humans 315
Future modelling
Modelling involves a prediction of the scope, geographic distribution and characteristics of a given factor (malaria in
this case) over a period of time. These models are crucial in preparing an adequate public health response to future
infectious disease outbreaks. Modelling malaria is particularly complex given the two common pathogen variants
(Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax) and many regionally dominant mosquito species.[2] These models
must therefore incorporate a variety of factors including: human-induced changes in climate (e.g. temperature,
precipitation, and humidity), environmental factors (e.g. drought and deforestation), disease factors (e.g. parasite
development rate, vector population, and drug resistance) and other factors (e.g. changes in immune status of hosts
and spread of disease into new areas).[13] Various models suggest, conservatively, that people living in developing
countries’ risk of malaria will increase 5-15% by 2100 due to climate change.[13] In Africa alone, according to the
MARA Project (Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa), there is a projected increase of 16-28% in person-month
exposures to malaria by 2100.[14]
Poverty
Because the poor tend to live in geographical and climatic regions that are naturally most vulnerable to climate
change, their capacity to adapt is easily overwhelmed by the impact of the hanging conditions. They have the least
assets to rely on in the event of a shock — whether it be a weather-related disaster, a bad harvest or a family member
falling ill. These factors build on each other and create a perpetuating cycle of poverty that is difficult to break.
Safety net structures like insurance are also largely unavailable to the world’s poor. Many are subsistence farmers or
fishermen, or have jobs in the tourism industry—vocations highly dependent on natural resources such as the ocean,
forests and land for their livelihoods. Climate change compounds existing poverty by destroying livelihoods. Climate
change is expected to reduce the earning potential of the next generation because it decreases family income and
increases the number of hungry children. Economists estimate that every child whose physical and mental
development is stunted by hunger and malnutrition stands to lose 5 to 10 percent in lifetime earnings.[15] As incomes
drop, poor families might be forced to send their children to work to bring in extra income. Consequently, climate
change affects educational opportunities and thereby income potential of the next generation.
Water
As the climate warms, it changes the nature of global rainfall, evaporation, snow, stream flow and other factors that
affect water supply and quality. Freshwater resources are highly sensitive to variations in weather and climate.
Climate change is projected to affect water availability. Growing evidence suggests that it speeds up the water cycle,
which can bring longer droughts and more intense periods of rain. This makes wet regions even wetter and arid areas
drier. In areas where the amount of water in rivers and streams depends on snow melting, warmer temperatures
increase the fraction of precipitation falling as rain rather than as snow, causing the annual spring peak in water
runoff to occur earlier in the year. This can lead to an increased likelihood of winter flooding and reduced late
summer river flows. Rising sea levels cause saltwater to enter into fresh underground water and freshwater streams.
Effects of climate change on humans 316
This reduces the amount of freshwater available for drinking and farming. Warmer water temperatures also affect
water quality and accelerate water pollution.[16]
Displacement/migration
Climate change causes displacement of people in several ways, the most obvious—and dramatic—being through the
increased number and severity of weather-related disasters which destroy homes and habitats forcing people to seek
shelter or livelihoods elsewhere. In the long term, such environmental effects of climate change as desertification
and rising sea levels gradually doom livelihoods and force communities to abandon traditional homelands for more
accommodating environments. This is currently happening in areas of Africa’s Sahel, the semi-arid belt that spans
the continent just below its northern deserts. Deteriorating environments triggered by climate change can also lead to
increased conflict over resources which in turn can displace people.[17] However, the links between the gradual
environmental degradation of climate change and displacement are complex: When individuals decide over time to
leave, it is impossible to single out the influence of climate change in these decisions from other factors, such as
poverty, population growth or employment options. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, it will
become increasingly difficult to categorize any displaced people by separate causes, which may include any
combination of conflict, economic, environmental, climate or other factors. Neither the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change nor its Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement on climate change, includes any provisions
concerning specific assistance or protection for those who will be directly affected by climate change.[18]
Security
Conflicts are typically extremely complex with multiple inter-dependent causalities, often referred to as ‘complex
emergencies.’ Climate change has the potential to exacerbate existing tensions or create new ones — serving as a
threat multiplier. It can be a catalyst for violent conflict and a threat to international security.[19] [20]
The United Nations Security Council held its first-ever debate on the impact of climate change in 2007. The links
between climate change and security have been the subject of numerous high-profile reports since 2007 by leading
security figures in the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union. The G77 group of developing
nations also considers climate change to be a major security threat which is expected to hit developing nations
particularly hard. The links between the human impact of climate change and the threat of violence and armed
conflict are particularly important because multiple destabilizing conditions are affected simultaneously.
Social impacts
The consequences of climate change and poverty are not distributed uniformly within communities. Individual and
social factors such as gender, age, education, ethnicity, geography and language lead to differential vulnerability and
capacity to adapt to the effects of climate change. Climate change effects such as hunger, poverty and diseases like
diarrhea and malaria, disproportionately impact children, i.e. about 90 percent of malaria and diarrhea deaths are
among young children.[9] Furthermore, in times of hardship young girls are particularly likely to be taken out of
school to care for sick relatives or earn extra income. The elderly have weakened immune systems making them
more susceptible to diseases and changing weather conditions, especially heat waves, along with being highly
vulnerable to weather-related disasters due to reduced mobility.
Effects of climate change on humans 317
Further reading
• Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, 4th Assessment Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [21]
• Report on the Economics of Climate Change (2006), Stern Review [22]
• Human Impact Report: The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis (2009), Global Humanitarian Forum [23]
• Key Points on Climate Justice: Working Paper of the Global Humanitarian Forum [24]
• What Happened to the Seasons?, Oxfam Research Report [25]
• Human Development Report 2007/2008, United Nations Development Programme [26]
• Maplecroft Climate Change Risk Report 2009/2010 [27]
References
[1] A.J. McMichael (2003). A. McMichael. ed. "Global Climate Change and Health: An Old Story Writ Large". World Health Organization
(Geneva).
[2] A.J. McMichael; R. Woodruff, S. Hales (2006). "Climate Change and Human Health: Present and Future Risks". Lancet 367: 859-69.
[3] www.stanford.edu/~moore/health.html
[4] http:/ / ghfgeneva. org/ Portals/ 0/ pdfs/ human_impact_report. pdf
[5] http:/ / www. oxfam. org. uk/ resources/ policy/ climate_change/ downloads/ research_what_happened_to_seasons. pdf
[6] http:/ / hdr. undp. org/ en/ media/ HDR_20072008_EN_Complete. pdf
[7] http:/ / www. reliefweb. int/ rw/ lib. nsf/ db900sid/ PANA-7JXCDW/ $file/ ocha_aug2008. pdf?openelement
[8] http:/ / www. wmo. int/ pages/ publications/ bulletin_en/ documents/ 57_4_short_en. pdf
[9] http:/ / who. int/ healthinfo/ global_burden_disease/ 2004_report_update/ en/ index. html
[10] P. Epstein (2002). "Climate Change and Infectious Disease: Stormy Weather Ahead?". Epidemiology 13 (4): 373-375.
[11] J. Patz; S. Olson (2006). "Malaria Risk and Temperature: Influences from Global Climate Change and Local Land Use Practices". PNAS 103
(15): 5635-5636.
[12] J. Patz; A.K. Githeko, J.P. McCarty, S. Hussein, U. Confalonieri, N. de Wet (2003). A. McMichael. ed. "Climate Change and Infectious
Diseases". Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses (Geneva: World Health Organization).
[13] S. Bhattacharya; C. Sharma, R. Dhiman, A. Mitra (2006). "Climate Change and Malaria in India". Current Science 90 (3): 369-375.
[14] J. Patz; D. Campbell-Lendrum, T. Holloway, J. Foley (2005). "Impact of Regional Climate Change on Human Health". Nature 438 (17):
310-317.
[15] http:/ / www. wfp. org/ hunger/ who-are
[16] http:/ / www. isse. ucar. edu/ water_climate/ impacts. html
[17] http:/ / www. worldwatch. org/ node/ 5888
[18] http:/ / www. brookings. edu/ speeches/ 2007/ 1214_climate_change_ferris. aspx
[19] http:/ / www. international-alert. org/ pdf/ A_Climate_Of_Conflict. pdf
[20] http:/ / www. wbgu. de/ wbgu_jg2007_engl. html
[21] http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report. htm
[22] http:/ / webarchive. nationalarchives. gov. uk/ + / http:/ / www. hm-treasury. gov. uk/ independent_reviews/
stern_review_economics_climate_change/ stern_review_report. cfm
[23] http:/ / ghfgeneva. org/ Portals/ 0/ pdfs/ human_impact_report. pdf
[24] http:/ / www. ghf-geneva. org/ Portals/ 0/ pdfs/ KeyPointsonClimateJusticeTextWeb. pdf
[25] http:/ / www. oxfam. org. uk/ resources/ policy/ climate_change/ downloads/ research_what_happened_to_seasons. pdf
[26] http:/ / hdr. undp. org/ en/ media/ HDR_20072008_EN_Complete. pdf
[27] http:/ / www. maplecroft. com/ Climate_change_info. php
Effects of climate change on humans 318
External links
• IPCC (http://www.ipcc.ch/)
• Global Humanitarian Forum (http://www.ghf-ge.org/)
• Tck Tck Tck Time for Climate Justice campaign (http://www.timeforclimatejustice.org/)
• Youth Forum (http://www.youthforum2009.org/)
• Oxfam (http://www.oxfam.org/)
• United Nations Development Programme and climate (http://www.undp.org/climatechange/)
• United Nations Environment Programme and climate change (http://www.unep.org/climatechange/)
• Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights human rights and climate change (http://www2.ohchr.org/
english/issues/climatechange/index.htm)
• Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees climate change (http://www.unhcr.org/pages/49e4a5096.html)
• Care International Climate Change Information Centre (http://www.careclimatechange.org/)
• Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre (http://www.climatecentre.org/index.php?page=1)
• World Bank and Climate Change (http://beta.worldbank.org/climatechange/)
• World Meteorological Organization and climate (http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/index_en.php)
• World Health Organization climate change and human health (http://www.who.int/globalchange/climate/en/)
• International Alert climate change and violent conflict (http://www.international-alert.org/climate_change/
index.php)
• International Strategy for Disaster Reduction disaster risk reduction and climate change (http://www.unisdr.
org/eng/risk-reduction/climate-change/climate-change.html)
• Greenpeace International (http://www.greenpeace.org/international/)
• UN Climate Change Conference official website (http://en.cop15.dk/)
Changes in temperature ranges will also change the location of areas with high primary productivity. These areas are
important to marine mammals because primary producers are the food source of marine mammal prey or are the
marine mammal prey themselves. Marine mammal distribution and abundance will be determined by the distribution
and abundance of its prey. Migration of marine mammals may also be affected by the changes in primary
productivity.
Increased glacier ice melt also impacts ocean circulation due to the increase of freshwater in the ocean. Salinity
concentrations in the ocean are changing. Thermohaline circulation may be altered by increasing amounts of
freshwater in the ocean. Thermohaline circulation is responsible for bringing up cold, nutrient rich water from the
depths of the ocean, a process known as upwelling. This may effect regional temperatures and primary productivity.
Susceptibility to disease is also thought to increase while reproductive success may decrease with increasing ocean
temperatures.
The worlds oceans absorb a large amount of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and causes an increase in carbon
dioxide concentrations and a decrease its overall pH, making it more acidic.
References
Poloczanska, E. S., Babcock, R. C., Butler, A., Hobday, A. J., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Kunz, T. J., Matear, R., Milton,
D. A., Okey, T. A., & Richardson, A. J. 2007. Climate change and Australian marine life. Oceanography and Marine
Biology: An Annual Review, 45, 407-478.
Hardwood, J.. 2001. Marine mammals and their environment in the twenty-first century. Journal of Mammology,
82(3), 630-640.
Learmonth, J.A., Macleod, C.D., Santos, M.B., Pierce, J.G., Crick, H.Q.P. & Robinson, R.A. .2006. Potential effects
of climate change on marine mammals. Oceanography and Marine Biology: An Annual Review, 2006, 44, 431-464.
MCCIP. 2006. Marine Climate Change Impacts Annual Report Card 2006. (Eds. Buckley, P.J., Dye, S.R., & Baxter,
J.M..), Summary Report, MCCIP, Lowestoft, 8pp.
Simmonds, M.P. & Isaac, S.J. .2007. The impacts of climate change on marine mammals: Early Signs of Significant
Problems. Oryx, 41(1), 19-26.
Tynan, C.T. & DeMaster, D.P.. 1997. Observations and predictions of Arctic climate change: potential effects on
marine mammals. Arctic, 50(4), 308-422.
External links
• Marine Mammal Commission [1]
• United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre [2]
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [3]
References
[1] http:/ / www. mmc. gov/
[2] http:/ / www. unep-wcmc. org/ climate/ default. aspx
[3] http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/
Fisheries and climate change 320
Role of oceans
Oceans and coastal ecosystems play an important role in the global
carbon cycle and have removed about 25% of the carbon dioxide
emitted by human activities between 2000 and 2007 and about half the
anthropogenic CO2 released since the start of the industrial revolution.
Rising ocean temperatures and ocean acidification means that the
capacity of the ocean carbon sink will gradually get weaker,[6] giving
rise to global concerns expressed in the Monaco[7] and Manado[8]
Declarations. Healthy ocean ecosystems are essential for the mitigation
of climate change.[9]
Island with fringing reef in the Maldives. Coral
[5]
reefs are dying around the world.
Adaptation
Several international agencies, including the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organization[21] have
programs to help countries and communities adapt to global warming, for example by developing policies to
improve the resilience[22] of natural resources, through assessments of risk and vulnerability, by increasing
awareness[23] of climate change impacts and strengthening key institutions, such as for weather forecasting and early
warning systems.[24] The World Development Report 2010 - Development and Climate Change, Chapter 3[25] shows
that reducing overcapacity in fishing fleets and rebuilding fish stocks can both improve resilience to climate change
and increase economic returns from marine capture fisheries by US$50 billion per year, while also reducing GHG
emissions by fishing fleets. Consequently removal of subsidies on fuel for fishing can have a double benefit by
reducing emissions and promoting overfishing.
Investment in sustainable aquaculture[26] can buffer water use in agriculture while producing food and diversifying
economic activities. Algal biofuels also show potential as algae can produce 15-300 times more oil per acre than
conventional crops, such as rapeseed, soybeans, or jatropha and marine algae do not require scarce freshwater.
Programs such as the GEF-funded Coral Reef Targeted Research provide advice on building resilience and
conserving coral reef ecosystems,[27] while six Pacific countries recently gave a formal undertaking to protect the
reefs in a biodiversity hotspot – the Coral Triangle.[28]
Fisheries and climate change 322
Mitigation
The oceans have removed 50%[29] of the anthropogenic CO2, so the
oceans have absorbed much of the impact of climate change. The
famous White Cliffs of Dover illustrate how the ocean captures and
buries carbon. These limestone cliffs are formed from the skeletons of
marine plankton called coccoliths. Similarly, petroleum formation is
attributed largely to marine and aquatic plankton further illustrating the The White Cliffs of Dover
Exactly how the oceans capture and bury CO2 is the subject of intense research[30] by scientists worldwide, such as
the Carboocean Project.[31] The current level of GHG emissions means that ocean acidity will continue to increase
and aquatic ecosystems will continue to degrade and change. There are feedback mechanisms involved here. For
example, warmer waters can absorb less CO2, so as ocean temperatures rise some dissolved CO2 will be released
back into the atmosphere. Warming also reduces nutrient levels in the mesopelagic zone (about 200 to 1000 m deep).
This in turn limits the growth of diatoms in favour of smaller phytoplankton that are poorer biological pumps of
carbon. This inhibits the ability of the ocean ecosystems to sequester carbon as the oceans warm.[32] What is clear, is
that healthy ocean and coastal ecosystems are necessary to continue the vital role of the ocean carbon sinks, as
indicated, for example, by the Blue Carbon[33] assessment prepared by UNEP and the coastal carbon sinks report[34]
of IUCN and growing evidence of the role of fish biomass[35] in the transport of carbon from surface waters to the
deep ocean.
While the various carbon finance instruments include restoration of forests (REDD) and producing clean energy
(emissions trading), few address the need to finance healthy ocean and aquatic ecosystems although these are
essential for continued uptake of CO2 and GHGs. The scientific basis for ocean fertilization – to produce more
phytoplankton to increase the uptake of CO2 – has been challenged, and proposals for burial of CO2 in the deep
ocean have come under criticism from environmentalists. The debate on these issues has underlined the need to
increase scientific understanding of how the ocean sequesters carbon.
Notes
[1] Sarwar G.M. (2005). Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Coastal Zone of Bangladesh (http:/ / www. lumes. lu. se/ database/ alumni/ 04. 05/
theses/ golam_sarwar. pdf). Lund University. . [Masters thesis Lay summary].
[2] Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter5. pdf) In:
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (15MB).
[3] Doney, S. C. (March 2006). "The Dangers of Ocean Acidification" (http:/ / www. precaution. org/ lib/ 06/
ocean_acidification_from_c02_060301. pdf). Scientific American. .
[4] Cheung, W.W.L., et al. (October 2009). Redistribution of Fish Catch by Climate Change. A Summary of a New Scientific Analysis (http:/ /
www. seaaroundus. org/ ClimateChange/ images/ Pew OSS Final climate change and fisheries. pdf). Pew Ocean Science Series. .
[5] Coral reefs around the world (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ interactive/ 2009/ sep/ 02/ coral-world-interactive)
Guardian.co.uk, 2 September 2009.
[6] UNEP, FAO, IOC (2009-11-25). "Blue Carbon. The role of healthy oceans in binding carbon" (http:/ / dev. grida. no/ RRAbluecarbon/ pdfs/
Blue_Carbon_Low_Res_2009-11-25. pdf). .
[7] Monaco Declaration (http:/ / ioc3. unesco. org/ oanet/ Symposium2008/ MonacoDeclaration. pdf) and Ocean Acidification (http:/ / ioc3.
unesco. org/ oanet/ OAdocs/ SPM-lorezv2. pdf) A Summary for Policymakers from the Second Symposium on the Ocean in a High-CO2
World.] Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, Marine Environment
Laboratories (MEL) of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research. 2008.
[8] Manado Ocean Declaration (http:/ / www. cep. unep. org/ news-and-events/ manado-ocean-declaration) World Ocean Conference
Ministerial/High Level Meeting. Manado, Indonesia, 11–14 May 2009.
[9] PACFA (http:/ / www. climatefish. org/ index_en. htm) (2009). "Fisheries and Aquaculture in a Changing Climate" (http:/ / www. fao. org/
climatechange/ 17789-1-0. pdf). .
[10] Changing distribution of fish in USA (http:/ / www. youtube. com/ watch?v=2pdifo6Yznc) (Youtube)
Fisheries and climate change 323
[11] FAO (2008) Report of the FAO Expert Workshop on Climate Change Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture (ftp:/ / ftp. fao. org/
docrep/ fao/ 010/ i0203e/ i0203e00. pdf) Rome, Italy, 7–9 April 2008. FAO Fisheries Report No. 870.
[12] Brander KM (December 2007). "Global fish production and climate change" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long&
pmid=18077405). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 104 (50): 19709–14. doi:10.1073/pnas.0702059104. PMC 2148362. PMID 18077405. .
[13] Ficke, A.D., Myrick, C.A. & Hansen, L.J. (2007). "Potential impacts of global climate change on freshwater fisheries" (http:/ / assets. panda.
org/ downloads/ fwfishreport902nov05. pdf). Fish Biology and Fisheries 17 (4): 581–613. doi:10.1007/s11160-007-9059-5. .
[14] Handisyde, N., et al. (2006). "The Effects of Climate change on World Aquaculture: A global perspective" (http:/ / www. aqua. stir. ac. uk/
GISAP/ pdfs/ Climate_full. pdf). Department for International Development UK. .
[15] Allison, E. H. et al. (2005) "Effects of climate change on the sustainability of capture and enhancement fisheries important to the poor:
analysis of the vulnerability and adaptability of fisherfolk living in poverty" (http:/ / www. dfid. gov. uk/ Documents/ publications/
summary-climatechangefisheries. pdf) London, Fisheries Management Science Programme MRAG/DFID, Project no. R4778J. Final
Technical Report, 164 pp.
[16] Allison, E.H., et al. (2009). "Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries" (http:/ / www. imcsnet. org/
imcs/ docs/ vulnerability_of_fisheries. pdf). Fish and Fisheries 10 (2): 173–96. doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00310.x. .
[17] Maldives President addresses the UN Climate Change Conference (http:/ / www. youtube. com/ watch?v=M4VRb6myfzU&
feature=related) (Youtube)
[18] Halls, A.S. (May 2009). "Fisheries Research and Development in the Mekong Region" (http:/ / www. mrcmekong. org/ Catch-Culture/
vol15_1May09/ Fisheries-Climate-Change. htm). Catch and Culture: Fisheries Research and Development in the Mekong Region 15 (1). .
[19] WorldFish Center, 2008. The Millennium Development Goals: Fishing for a Future: Reducing poverty and hunger by improving fisheries
and aquaculture (http:/ / www. worldfishcenter. org/ v2/ files/ MDG brochure 72dpi. pdf)
[20] FAO (2009) The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture (ftp:/ / ftp. fao. org/ docrep/ fao/ 011/ i0250e/ i0250e01. pdf) Rome.
[21] FAO (2007) Building adaptive capacity to climate change. Policies to sustain livelihoods and fisheries (ftp:/ / ftp. fao. org/ docrep/ fao/ 010/
a1115e/ a1115e00. pdf)
[22] Allison, E.H., et al. (2007). "Enhancing the resilience of inland fisheries and aquaculture systems to climate change". Journal of Semi-Arid
Tropical Agricultural Research 4 (1).
[23] Dulvy, N.; Allison, E. (28 May 2009). "A place at the table?" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ climate/ 2009/ 0906/ full/ climate. 2009. 52.
html#B3). Nature Reports Climate Change: 68. doi:10.1038/climate.2009.52. .
[24] The World Bank – Climate Change Adaptation (http:/ / beta. worldbank. org/ overview/ climate-change-adaptation) (website)
[25] World Bank (2009) World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. Chapter 3 (http:/ / siteresources. worldbank. org/
INTWDR2010/ Resources/ 5287678-1226014527953/ Chapter-3. pdf)
[26] World Bank (2006) Aquaculture: Changing the Face of the Waters: Meeting the Promise and Challenge of Sustainable Aquaculture (http:/ /
siteresources. worldbank. org/ INTARD/ Resources/ Aquaculture_ESW_vGDP. pdf)
[27] Coral Reef Targeted Research (2008) Climate change: It’s now or never to save coral reefs (http:/ / www. gefcoral. org/ Portals/ 53/
downloads/ advisory_briefs_BWG_mexico/ Advisory Paper Issue 1. Climate change. july08. pdf) CFTR Advisory Panel 2 Issue 1.
[28] Coral Triangle Agreement (http:/ / www. youtube. com/ watch?v=U5V--yB6SEY) (YouTube)
[29] Feely, R., et al. (2008). "Carbon dioxide and our Ocean legacy" (http:/ / www. pmel. noaa. gov/ pubs/ PDF/ feel2899/ feel2899. pdf).
NOAA/Pew brief. .
[30] Gruber N., et al. (2009). "Oceanic sources, sinks, and transport of atmospheric CO2" (http:/ / ocean. mit. edu/ ~stephd/ gruber_gbc_09. pdf).
Global Biogeochem. Cycles 23: GB1005. Bibcode 2009GBioC..23.1005G. doi:10.1029/2008GB003349. .
[31] CARBOOCEAN IP (http:/ / www. carboocean. org/ ) (website) and C02 in the oceans (http:/ / www. carboocean. org/ upload/ flowplayer/
carboocean/ index. html) (movie clip, 55 minutes)
[32] Buesseler, Ken O.; et al. (2007-04-27). "Revisiting Carbon Flux Through the Ocean's Twilight Zone" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/
content/ abstract/ 316/ 5824/ 567) (abstract). Science 316 (5824): 567–70. doi:10.1126/science.1137959. PMID 17463282. . Retrieved
2007-11-16.
[33] Nellemann, C., Corcoran, E., Duarte, C. M., Valdés, L., De Young, C.,Fonseca, L., Grimsditch, G. (2009). "Blue Carbon. A Rapid Response
Assessment" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ publications/ rr/ blue-carbon/ ). GRID-Arendal. United Nations Environment Programme. .
[34] Lafoley, D.d’A. & Grimsditch, G. (2009). "The management of natural coastal carbon sinks" (http:/ / cmsdata. iucn. org/ downloads/
carbon_managment_report_final_printed_version_1. pdf). Gland, Switzerland: IUCN. .
[35] Wilson, R.W., et al. (2009). "Contribution of Fish to the Marine Inorganic Carbon Cycle" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/
abstract/ 323/ 5912/ 359). Science 323 (5912): 359–62. doi:10.1126/science.1157972. PMID 19150840. .
Fisheries and climate change 324
References
• FAO (2009) Climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture. Overview of current scientific knowledge
(http://www.fao.org/icatalog/search/dett.asp?aries_id=110710) Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper
530, Rome.
• Klyashtorin LB (2001) Climate change and long-term fluctuations of commercial catches: the possibility of
forecasting (ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/005/y2787e/y2787e00.pdf) Technical paper 410, FAO fisheries,
Rome. ISBN 9789251046951.
Methods for measuring glacier retreat include staking terminus location, global positioning mapping, aerial mapping,
and laser altimetry.
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 326
Mid-latitude glaciers
Mid-latitude glaciers are located either between the Tropic of Cancer and the Arctic Circle, or between the Tropic of
Capricorn and the Antarctic Circle. These two regions support glacier ice from mountain glaciers, valley glaciers and
even smaller icecaps, which are usually located in higher mountainous regions. All of these glaciers are located in
mountain ranges, notably the Himalayas; the Alps; the Pyrenees; Rocky Mountains and Pacific Coast Ranges of
North America; the Patagonian Andes in South America; and mountain ranges in New Zealand. Glaciers in these
latitudes are more widespread and tend to be greater in mass the closer they are located to the polar regions. These
glaciers are the most widely studied over the past 150 years. As is true with the glaciers located in the tropical zone,
virtually all the glaciers in the mid-latitudes are in a state of negative mass balance and are retreating.
Eastern hemisphere
Europe
Other researchers have found that glaciers across the Alps appear to be retreating at a faster rate than a few decades
ago. In 2008, the Swiss Glacier survey of 85 glaciers found 78 retreating, 2 stationary and 5 advancing. The Trift
Glacier had retreated over 500 m (1600 ft) just in the three years of 2003 to 2005, which is 10% of its total length.
The Grosser Aletsch Glacier, the largest glacier in Switzerland, has retreated 2600 m (8500 ft) since 1880. This rate
of retreat has also increased since 1980, with 30%, or 800 m (2600 ft), of the total retreat occurring in the last 20% of
the time period.[9] Similarly, of the glaciers in the Italian Alps, only about a third were in retreat in 1980, while by
1999, 89% of these glaciers were retreating. In 2005, the Italian Glacier Commission found that 123 glaciers were
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 327
retreating, 1 advancing and 6 stationary.[10] Repeat photography of glaciers in the Alps provides clear evidence that
glaciers in this region have retreated significantly in the past several decades.[11] Morteratsch Glacier, Switzerland is
one key example. The yearly measurements of the length changes started in 1878. The overall retreat from 1878 to
1998 has been 2 km (1.2 mi) with a mean annual retreat rate of approximately 17 m (56 ft) per year. This long-term
average was markedly surpassed in recent years with the glacier receding 30 m (98 ft) per year during the period
between 1999–2005.[9] One major concern which has in the past had great impact on lives and property is the death
and destruction from a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). Glaciers stockpile rock and soil that has been carved
from mountainsides at their terminal end. These debris piles often form dams that impound water behind them and
form glacial lakes as the glaciers melt and retreat from their maximum extents. These terminal moraines are
frequently unstable and have been known to burst if overfilled or displaced by earthquakes, landslides or avalanches.
If a glacier has a rapid melting cycle during warmer months, the terminal moraine may not be strong enough to hold
the rising water behind it, leading to a massive localized flood. This is an increasing risk due to the creation and
expansion of glacial lakes resulting from glacier retreat. Past floods have been deadly and have resulted in enormous
property damage. Towns and villages in steep, narrow valleys that are downstream from glacial lakes are at the
greatest risk. In 1892 a GLOF released some 200000 km3 (2.6×1014 cu yd) of water from the lake of the Glacier de
Tête Rousse, resulting in the deaths of 200 people in the French town of Saint Gervais.[12] GLOFs have been known
to occur in every region of the world where glaciers are located. Continued glacier retreat is expected to create and
expand glacial lakes, increasing the danger of future GLOFs.
Though the glaciers of the Alps have received more attention from glaciologists than in other areas of Europe,
research indicates that throughout most of Europe, glaciers are rapidly retreating. In the Kebnekaise Mountains of
northern Sweden, a study of 16 glaciers between 1990 and 2001 found that 14 glaciers were retreating, one was
advancing and one was stable.[13] During the 20th century, glaciers in Norway retreated overall with brief periods of
advance around 1910, 1925 and in the 1990s. In the 1990s, 11 of 25 Norwegian glaciers observed had advanced due
to several consecutive winters with above normal precipitation. However, following several consecutive years of
little winter precipitation since 2000, and record warmth during the summers of 2002 and 2003, Norwegian glaciers
have decreased significantly since the 1990s. By 2005 only 1 of the 25 glaciers monitored in Norway was advancing,
two were stationary and 22 were retreating. In 2010 27 glaciers reatreated, one was stationary (less than 2 meters of
change) and three advanced. [14] The Norwegian Engabreen Glacier has retreated 185 m (607 ft) since 1999, while
the Brenndalsbreen and Rembesdalsskåka glaciers have retreated 276 m (906 ft) and 250 m (820 ft), respectively,
since 2000. The Briksdalsbreen glacier retreated 96 m (315 ft) in 2004 alone—the largest annual retreat recorded for
this glacier since monitoring began in 1900. This figure was exceeded in 2006 with five glaciers retreating over
100 m (330 ft) from the fall of 2005 to the fall of 2006. Four outlets from the Jostedalsbreen ice cap, Kjenndalsbreen,
Brenndalsbreen, Briksdalsbreen and Bergsetbreen had a frontal retreat of more than 100 metres. Gråfjellsbrea, an
outlet from Folgefonna, had a retreat of almost 100 m (330 ft). Overall, from 1999 to 2005, Briksdalsbreen retreated
336 metres (1102 ft).[14]
In the Spanish Pyrenees, recent studies have shown important losses in extent and volume of the glaciers of the
Maladeta massif during the period 1981-2005. These include a reduction in area of 35.7%, from 2.41 km2
(600 acres) to .627 km2 (155 acres), a loss in total ice volume of .0137 km3 (0.0033 cu mi) and an increase in the
mean altitude of the glacial termini of 43.5 m (143 ft).[15] For the Pyrenees as a whole 50-60% of the glaciated area
has been lost since 1991. At least three glaciers Balaitus, Perdigurero and La Munia have disappeared in this period.
Monte Perdido Glacier has shrank from 90 hectares to 40 hectares.[16]
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 328
Siberia
Siberia and the Russian Far East, although typically classified as polar regions, owing to the dryness of the winter
climate have glaciers only in the high Altai Mountains, Verkhoyansk Range and Cherskiy Range. Kamchatka,
exposed to moisture from the Sea of Okhotsk, has much more extensive glaciation totaling around 2,500 square
kilometres (970 square miles).
Because the collapse of Communism has caused a large reduction in the number of monitoring stations,[17] details on
the retreat of Siberian glaciers is much poorer than in most other regions of the world. Nonetheless, available records
do indicate a general retreat of all glaciers in the Altai Mountains and (with the exception of volcanic glaciers) in
Kamchatka. Sakha's glaciers, totaling seventy square kilometers, have shrunk by around 28% since 1945,[17] whilst
in moister regions of Siberia and on the Pacific coast, the shrinkage is considerably larger,[17] reaching several
percent annually in some places.
Asia
With the retreat of glaciers in the Himalayas, a number of glacial lakes have been created. A growing concern is the
potential for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods—researchers estimate 20 glacial lakes in Nepal and 24 in Bhutan pose
hazards to human populations should their terminal moraine dams fail. One glacial lake identified as potentially
hazardous is Bhutan's Raphstreng Tsho, which measured 1.6 km (0.99 mi) long, .96 m (0.00096 km) wide and was
80 m (260 ft) deep in 1986. By 1995 the lake had swollen to a length of 1.94 km (1.21 mi), 1.13 km (0.70 mi) in
width and a depth of 107 m (351 ft). In 1994 a GLOF from Luggye Tsho, a glacial lake adjacent to Raphstreng Tsho,
killed 23 people downstream.[25]
Glaciers in the Ak-shirak Range in Kyrgyzstan experienced a slight loss between 1943 and 1977 and an accelerated
loss of 20% of their remaining mass between 1977 and 2001.[26] In the Tien Shan mountains, which Kyrgyzstan
shares with China and Kazakhstan, studies in the northern areas of that mountain range show that the glaciers that
help supply water to this arid region have been losing nearly 2 km3 (0.48 cu mi) of ice per year between 1955 and
2000. The University of Oxford study also reported that an average of 1.28% of the volume of these glaciers had
been lost per year between 1974 and 1990.[27]
To the south of the Tien Shan, the Pamirs mountain range located primarily in Tajikistan has many thousands of
glaciers, all of which are in a general state of retreat. During the 20th century, the glaciers of Tajikistan lost 20 km3
(4.8 cu mi) of ice. The 70 km (43 mi) long Fedchenko Glacier, which is the largest in Tajikistan and the largest
non-polar glacier on Earth, lost 1.4% of its length, or 1 km (0.62 mi), 2 km3 (0.48 cu mi) of its mass, and the
glaciated area was reduced by 11 km2 (4.2 sq mi) during the 20th century. Similarly, the neighboring Skogatch
Glacier lost 8% of its total mass between 1969 and 1986. The country of Tajikistan and neighboring countries of the
Pamir Range are highly dependent upon glacial runoff to ensure river flow during droughts and the dry seasons
experienced every year. The continued demise of glacier ice will result in a short-term increase, followed by a
long-term decrease in glacial melt water flowing into rivers and streams.[28]
The Tibetan Plateau contains the world's third-largest store of ice. Qin Dahe, the former head of the China
Meteorological Administration, said that the recent fast pace of melting and warmer temperatures will be good for
agriculture and tourism in the short term; but issued a strong warning:
"Temperatures are rising four times faster than elsewhere in China, and the Tibetan glaciers are retreating at a
higher speed than in any other part of the world.... In the short term, this will cause lakes to expand and bring
floods and mudflows. . . . In the long run, the glaciers are vital lifelines for Asian rivers, including the Indus
and the Ganges. Once they vanish, water supplies in those regions will be in peril."[29]
Oceania
retreat over the past 20 years. Satellite imagery indicates that these lakes are continuing to expand. There has been
significant and ongoing ice volume losses on the largest New Zealand glaciers, including the Tasman, Ivory,
Classen, Mueller, Maud, Hooker, Grey, Godley, Ramsay, Murchison, Therma, Volta and Douglas Glaciers. The
retreat of these glaciers has been marked by expanding proglacial lakes and terminus region thinning. The loss in
volume from 1975-2005 is 11% of the total.[30]
Several glaciers, notably the much-visited Fox and Franz Josef Glaciers on New Zealand's West Coast, have
periodically advanced, especially during the 1990s, but the scale of these advances is small when compared to
20th-century retreat. Both glaciers are currently more than 2.5 km (1.6 mi) shorter than a century ago. These large,
rapidly flowing glaciers situated on steep slopes have been very reactive to small mass-balance changes. A few years
of conditions favorable to glacier advance, such as more westerly winds and a resulting increase in snowfall, are
rapidly echoed in a corresponding advance, followed by equally rapid retreat when those favorable conditions
end.[31] The glaciers that have been advancing in a few locations in New Zealand have been doing so due to a
temporary weather change associated with El Niño, which has brought more precipitation and cloudier, cooler
summers since 2002.[32]
Western hemisphere
North American glaciers are primarily located along the spine of the
Rocky Mountains in the United States and Canada, and the Pacific
Coast Ranges extending from northern California to Alaska. While
Greenland is geologically associated with North America, it is also a
part of the Arctic region. Apart from the few tidewater glaciers such as
Taku Glacier, that are in the advance stage of their tidewater glacier
cycle prevalent along the coast of Alaska, virtually all the glaciers of
North America are in a state of retreat. The observed retreat rate has
increased rapidly since approximately 1980, and overall each decade The Lewis Glacier, North Cascades National Park
since has seen greater rates of retreat than the preceding one. There are after melting away in 1990
also small remnant glaciers scattered throughout the Sierra Nevada
mountains of California and Nevada.
Cascades
The Cascade Range of western North America extends from southern British Columbia in Canada to northern
California. Excepting Alaska, about half of the glacial area in the U.S. is contained in the more than 700 glaciers of
the North Cascades, a portion of the range between the Canadian border and I-90 in central Washington. These
glaciers store as much water as that contained in all the lakes and reservoirs in the rest of the state, and provide much
of the stream and river flow in the dry summer months, approximating some 870000 m3 ( cu yd).
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 331
one of many glaciers in Glacier National Park that have been well documented by photographs for many decades.
The photographs below clearly demonstrate the retreat of this glacier since 1938.
1938 T.J. Hileman GNP 1981 Carl Key (USGS) 1998 Dan Fagre (USGS) 2009 Lindsey Bengtson (USGS)
The semiarid climate of Wyoming still manages to support about a dozen small glaciers within Grand Teton National
Park, which all show evidence of retreat over the past 50 years. Schoolroom Glacier, located slightly southwest of
Grand Teton, one of the more easily reached glaciers in the park, is expected to disappear by 2025. Research
between 1950 and 1999 demonstrated that the glaciers in Bridger-Teton National Forest and Shoshone National
Forest in the Wind River Range shrank by over a third of their size during that period. Photographs indicate that the
glaciers today are only half the size as when first photographed in the late 1890s. Research also indicates that the
glacial retreat was proportionately greater in the 1990s than in any other decade over the last 100 years. Gannett
Glacier on the northeast slope of Gannett Peak is the largest single glacier in the Rocky Mountains south of Canada.
It has reportedly lost over 50% of its volume since 1920, with almost half of that loss occurring since 1980.
Glaciologists believe the remaining glaciers in Wyoming will disappear by the middle of the 21st century if the
current climate patterns continue.[37]
Alaska
Long-term mass balance records from Lemon Creek Glacier in Alaska show slightly declining mass balance with
time.[44] The mean annual balance for this glacier was −0.23 m (0.75 ft) each year during the period of 1957 to 1976.
Mean annual balance has been increasingly negatively averaging −1.04 m (3.4 ft) per year from 1990 to 2005.
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 334
Repeat glacier altimetry, or altitude measuring, for 67 Alaska glaciers find rates of thinning have increased by more
than a factor of two when comparing the periods from 1950 to 1995 (0.7 m (2.3 ft) per year) and 1995 to 2001 (1.8 m
(5.9 ft) per year).[45] This is a systemic trend with loss in mass equating to loss in thickness, which leads to
increasing retreat—the glaciers are not only retreating, but they are also becoming much thinner. In Denali National
Park, all glaciers monitored are retreating, with an average retreat of 20 m (66 ft) per year. The terminus of the
Toklat Glacier has been retreating 26 m (85 ft) per year and the Muldrow Glacier has thinned 20 m (66 ft) since
1979.[46] Well documented in Alaska are surging glaciers that have been known to rapidly advance, even as much as
100 m (330 ft) per day. Variegated, Black Rapids, Muldrow, Susitna and Yanert are examples of surging glaciers in
Alaska that have made rapid advances in the past. These glaciers are all retreating overall, punctuated by short
periods of advance.
Tropical glaciers
Tropical glaciers are located between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn, in the region that lies 23°
26′ 22″ north or south of the equator. Tropical glaciers are the most uncommon of all glaciers for a variety of
reasons. Firstly, the tropics are the warmest part of the planet. Secondly, the seasonal change is minimal with
temperatures warm year round, resulting in a lack of a colder winter season in which snow and ice can accumulate.
Thirdly, few taller mountains exist in these regions upon which enough cold air exists for the establishment of
glaciers. All of the glaciers located in the tropics are on isolated high mountain peaks. Overall, tropical glaciers are
smaller than those found elsewhere and are the most likely glaciers to show rapid response to changing climate
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 335
patterns. A small temperature increase of only a few degrees can have almost immediate and adverse impact on
tropical glaciers.[51]
Africa
With almost the entire continent of Africa located in
the tropical and subtropical climate zones, glaciers are
restricted to two isolated peaks and the Ruwenzori
Range. Kilimanjaro, at 5895 m (19341 ft), is the
highest peak on the continent. Since 1912 the glacier
cover on the summit of Kilimanjaro has apparently
retreated 75%, and the volume of glacial ice is now
80% less than it was a century ago due to both retreat
and thinning.[52] In the 14-year period from 1984 to
1998, one section of the glacier atop the mountain
receded 300 m (980 ft).[53] A 2002 study determined
that if current conditions continue, the glaciers atop
Furtwängler Glacier atop Kilimanjaro in the foreground and
Kilimanjaro will disappear sometime between 2015 and
snowfields and the Northern Icefields beyond.
2020.[54] A March 2005 report indicated that there is
almost no remaining glacial ice on the mountain, and it
is the first time in 11,000 years that barren ground has been exposed on portions of the summit.[55] Researchers
reported Kilimanjaro's glacier retreat was due to a combination of increased sublimation and decreased snow fall.[3]
The Furtwängler Glacier is located near the summit of Kilimanjaro. Between 1976 and 2000, the area of Furtwängler
Glacier was cut almost in half, from 113000 m2 ( sq ft) to 60000 m2 ( sq ft).[56] During fieldwork conducted early in
2006, scientists discovered a large hole near the center of the glacier. This hole, extending through the 6 m (20 ft)
remaining thickness of the glacier to the underlying rock, is expected to grow and split the glacier in two by 2007.[52]
To the north of Kilimanjaro lies Mount Kenya, which at 5199 m (17057 ft) is the second tallest mountain on the
African continent. Mount Kenya has a number of small glaciers that have lost at least 45% of their mass since the
middle of the 20th century. According to research compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), there were
eighteen glaciers atop Mount Kenya in 1900, and by 1986 only eleven remained. The total area covered by glaciers
was 1.6 km2 (0.62 sq mi) in 1900, however by the year 2000 only about 25%, or 0.4 km2 (0.15 sq mi) remained.[57]
To the west of Mounts Kilimanjaro and Kenya, the Ruwenzori Range rises to 5109 m (16762 ft). Photographic
evidence of this mountain range indicates a marked reduction in glacially covered areas over the past century. In the
35-year period between 1955 and 1990, glaciers on the Rwenzori Mountains receded about 40%. It is expected that
due to their proximity to the heavy moisture of the Congo region, the glaciers in the Ruwenzori Range may recede at
a slower rate than those on Kilimanjaro or in Kenya.[58]
South America
A study by glaciologists of two small glaciers in South America reveals another retreat. More than 80% of all glacial
ice in the northern Andes is concentrated on the highest peaks in small glaciers of approximately 1 km2 (0.39 sq mi)
in size. A 1992 to 1998 observation of the Chacaltaya Glacier in Bolivia and Antizana Glacier in Ecuador indicated
that between 0.6 m (2.0 ft) and 1.9 m (6.2 ft) of ice was lost per year on each glacier. Figures for Chacaltaya Glacier
show a loss of 67% of its volume and 40% of its thickness over the same period. Chacaltaya Glacier has lost 90% of
its mass since 1940 and is expected to disappear altogether sometime between 2010 and 2015. Research also
indicates that since the mid-1980s, the rate of retreat for both of these glaciers has been increasing.[59] In Colombia,
the glaciers atop Nevado del Ruiz have lost more than half their area in the last 40 years.[60] Further south in Peru,
the Andes are at a higher altitude overall, and there are approximately 722 glaciers covering an area of 723 km2
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 336
(279 sq mi). Research in this region of the Andes is less extensive but indicates an overall glacial retreat of 7%
between 1977 and 1983.[61] The Quelccaya Ice Cap is the largest tropical icecap in the world, and all of the outlet
glaciers from the icecap are retreating. In the case of Qori Kalis Glacier, which is Quelccayas' main outlet glacier,
the rate of retreat had reached 155 m (509 ft) per year during the three year period of 1995 to 1998. The melting ice
has formed a large lake at the front of the glacier since 1983, and bare ground has been exposed for the first time in
thousands of years.[62]
Oceania
On the large island of New Guinea, there is
photographic evidence of massive glacial retreat since
the region was first extensively explored by airplane in
the early 1930s. Due to the location of the island within
the tropical zone, there is little to no seasonal variation
in temperature. The tropical location has a predictably
steady level of rain and snowfall, as well as cloud cover
year round, and there has been no noticeable change in
the amount of moisture which has fallen during the
20th century. The 7 km2 (2.7 sq mi) ice cap on Puncak
Jaya is the largest on the island, and has retreated from
one larger mass into several smaller glacial bodies
Puncak Jaya icecap 1936 USGS
since 1936. Of these smaller glaciers, research between
1973 and 1976 showed glacier retreat for the Meren
Glacier of 200 m (660 ft) while the Carstensz Glacier
lost 50 m (160 ft). The Northwall Firn, another large
remnant of the icecap that once was atop Puncak Jaya,
has itself split into several separate glaciers since 1936.
Research presented in 2004 of IKONOS satellite
imagery of the New Guinean glaciers provided a
dramatic update. The imagery indicated that in the two
years from 2000 to 2002, the East Northwall Firn had
lost 4.5%, the West Northwall Firn 19.4% and the
Carstensz 6.8% of their glacial mass. Researchers also
discovered that, sometime between 1994 and 2000, the
Meren Glacier disappeared altogether.[63] An Puncak Jaya glaciers 1972. Left to right: Northwall Firn, Meren
expedition to the remaining glaciers on Puncak Jaya in Glacier, and Carstensz Glacier. USGS. Also mid 2005 image and
animation.
2010 discovered that the ice on the glaciers there is
about 32 metres (105 ft) thick and thinning at a rate of
7 metres (23 ft) annually. At that rate, the remaining glaciers are expected to last another 5 years or 2015.[64]
Separate from the glaciers of Puncak Jaya, another small icecap known to have existed on the summit of Puncak
Trikora completely disappeared sometime between 1939 and 1962.[65]
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 337
Polar regions
Despite their proximity and importance to human populations, the mountain and valley glaciers of tropical and
mid-latitude glaciers amount to only a small fraction of glacial ice on the Earth. About 99% of all freshwater ice is in
the great ice sheets of polar and subpolar Antarctica and Greenland. These continuous continental-scale ice sheets,
3 km (1.9 mi) or more in thickness, cap much of the polar and subpolar land masses. Like rivers flowing from an
enormous lake, numerous outlet glaciers transport ice from the margins of the ice sheet to the ocean.
Iceland
The northern Atlantic island nation of Iceland is home to the Vatnajökull, which is the largest ice cap in Europe. The
Breiðamerkurjökull Glacier is one of the Vatnajökull outlet glaciers, and had receded by as much as 2 km (1.2 mi)
between 1973 and 2004. In the early 20th century, Breiðamerkurjökull extended to within 250 m (820 ft) of the
ocean, but by 2004 Breiðamerkurjökull's terminus had retreated 3 km (1.9 mi) further inland. This glacier retreat
exposed a rapidly expanding lagoon that is filled with icebergs calved from its front. The lagoon is 110 m (360 ft)
deep and nearly doubled its size between 1994 and 2004. Mass-balance measurements of Iceland's glaciers show
alternating positive and negative mass balance of glaciers during the period 1987–95, but the mass balance has been
predominantly negative since. On Hofsjökull ice cap, mass balance has been negative each year from 1995-2005.
Most of the Icelandic glaciers retreated rapidly during the warm decades from 1930 to 1960, slowing down as the
climate cooled during the following decade, and started to advance after 1970. The rate of advance peaked in the
1980s, after which it slowed down as a consequence of rapid warming of the climate that has taken place since the
mid-1980s. Most glaciers in Iceland began to retreat after 1990, and by 2000 all monitored non-surge type glaciers in
Iceland were retreating. An average of 45 non-surging termini were monitored each year by the Icelandic
Glaciological Society from 2000–2005.[66]
Canada
The Canadian Arctic islands have a number of
substantial ice caps, including Penny and Barnes
ice caps on Baffin Island, Bylot Ice Cap on Bylot
Island, and Devon Ice Cap on Devon Island. All
of these ice caps have been thinning and
receding slowly. The Barnes and Penny ice caps
on Baffin Island have been thinning at over 1 m
(3.3 ft) per year in the lower elevations from
1995 to 2000. Overall, between 1995 and 2000,
ice caps in the Canadian Arctic lost 25 km2
(9.7 sq mi) of ice per year.[67] Between 1960 and
1999, the Devon Ice Cap lost 67 km3 (16 cu mi)
of ice, mainly through thinning. All major outlet
glaciers along the eastern Devon Ice Cap margin
have retreated from 1 km (0.62 mi) to 3 km
(1.9 mi) since 1960.[68] On the Hazen Plateau of
Ellesmere Island, the Simmon Ice Cap has lost
47% of its area since 1959.[69] If the current Bylot Ice Cap on Bylot Island, one of the Canadian Arctic islands, August 14,
1975 (USGS)
climatic conditions continue, the remaining
glacial ice on the Hazen Plateau will be gone
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 338
around 2050. On August 13, 2005 the Ayles Ice Shelf broke free from the north coast of Ellesmere Island, the
66 km2 (25 sq mi) ice shelf drifted into the Arctic Ocean.[70] This followed the splitting of the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf
in 2002. The Ward Hunt has lost 90% of its area in the last century.[71]
Northern Europe
Arctic islands north of Norway, Finland and Russia have all shown evidence of glacier retreat. In the Svalbard
archipelago, the island of Spitsbergen has numerous glaciers. Research indicates that Hansbreen (Hans Glacier) on
Spitsbergen retreated 1.4 km (0.87 mi) from 1936 to 1982 and another 400 m (1300 ft) during the 16-year period
from 1982 to 1998.[72] Blomstrandbreen, a glacier in the King's Bay area of Spitsbergen, has retreated approximately
2 km (1.2 mi) in the past 80 years. Since 1960 the average retreat of Blomstrandbreen has been about 35 m (115 ft) a
year, and this average was enhanced due to an accelerated rate of retreat since 1995.[73] Similarly, Midre Lovenbreen
retreated 200 m (656 ft) between 1977 and 1995.[74] In the Novaya Zemlya archipelago north of Russia, research
indicates that in 1952 there was 208 km (129 mi) of glacier ice along the coast. By 1993 this had been reduced by
8% to 198 km (123 mi) of glacier coastline.[75]
Greenland
In Greenland, glacier retreat has been observed in outlet
glaciers, resulting in an increase of the ice flow rate and
destabilization of the mass balance of the ice sheet that is
their source. The net loss in volume and hence sea level
contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) has doubled
in recent years from 90 km3 (22 cu mi) to 220 km3
(53 cu mi) per year.[76] Researchers also noted that the
acceleration was widespread affecting almost all glaciers
south of 70 N by 2005. The period since 2000 has brought
retreat to several very large glaciers that had long been
stable. Three glaciers that have been researched—Helheim
Glacier, Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier, and Jakobshavn
Isbræ—jointly drain more than 16% of the Greenland Ice
Sheet. In the case of Helheim Glacier, researchers used
satellite images to determine the movement and retreat of
the glacier. Satellite images and aerial photographs from the
1950s and 1970s show that the front of the glacier had
remained in the same place for decades. In 2001 the glacier
began retreating rapidly, and by 2005 the glacier had
retreated a total of 7.2 km (4.5 mi), accelerating from 20 m
(66 ft) per day to 35 m (115 ft) per day during that
period.[77]
Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier that were flowing at 15 m (49 ft) per day from 1988 to 2001 were measured to be flowing
at 40 m (130 ft) per day in the summer of 2005. Not only has Kangerdlugssuaq retreated, it has also thinned by more
than 100 m (330 ft).[78]
The rapid thinning, acceleration and retreat of Helheim, Jakobshavns and Kangerdlugssuaq glaciers in Greenland, all
in close association with one another, suggests a common triggering mechanism, such as enhanced surface melting
due to regional climate warming or a change in forces at the glacier front. The enhanced melting leading to
lubrication of the glacier base has been observed to cause a small seasonal velocity increase and the release of
meltwater lakes has also led to only small short term accelerations.[79] The significant accelerations noted on the
three largest glaciers began at the calving in front and propagated inland and are not seasonal in nature.[80] Thus, the
primary source of outlet glacier acceleration widely observed on small and large calving glaciers in Greenland is
driven by changes in dynamic forces at the glacier front, not enhanced meltwater lubrication.[80] This was termed the
Jakobshavns Effect by Terence Hughes at the University of Maine in 1986.[81]
Antarctica
The climate of Antarctica is one of intense cold and
great aridity. Most of the world's freshwater ice is
contained in the great ice sheets that cover the
continent of Antarctica. The most dramatic example of
glacier retreat on the continent is the loss of large
sections of the Larsen Ice Shelf on the Antarctic
Peninsula. Ice shelves are not stable when surface
melting occurs, and the collapse of Larsen Ice Shelf has
been caused by warmer melt season temperatures that
have led to surface melting and the formation of
shallow ponds of water on the ice shelf. The Larsen Ice
Shelf lost 2500 km2 (970 sq mi) of its area from 1995
to 2001. In a 35-day period beginning on January 31,
2002, about 3250 km2 (1250 sq mi) of shelf area
The collapsing Larsen B Ice Shelf in Antarctica is similar in area to
disintegrated. The ice shelf is now 40% the size of its
the U.S. state of Rhode Island. previous minimum stable extent[82] The recent collapse
of Wordie Ice Shelf, Prince Gustav Ice Shelf, Mueller
Ice Shelf, Jones Ice Shelf, Larsen-A and Larsen-B Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula has raised awareness of how
dynamic ice shelf systems are. Jones Ice Shelf had an area of 35 km2 (14 sq mi) in the 1970s but by 2008 it had
disappeared.[83] Wordie Ice Shelf has gone from an area of 1500 square kilometers in 1950 to 140 km2 in 2000.[83]
Prince Gustav Ice Shelf has gone from an area of 1600 km2 to 11 km2 in 2008.[83] After their loss the reduced
buttressing of feeder glaciers has allowed the expected speed-up of inland ice masses after shelf ice break-up.[84] The
Wilkins Ice Shelf is another ice shelf that has suffered substantial retreat. The ice shelf had an area of 16000 km2
(6200 sq mi) in 1998 when 1000 km2 (390 sq mi) was lost.[85] In 2007 and 2008 significant rifting developed and led
to the loss of another 1400 km2 (540 sq mi) of area. Some of the calving occurred in the Austral winter. The calving
seemed to have resulted from preconditioning such as thinning, possibly due to basal melt, as surface melt was not as
evident, leading to a reduction in the strength of the pinning point connections. The thinner ice then experienced
spreading rifts and breakup.[19] This period culminated in the collapse of an ice bridge connecting the main ice shelf
to Charcot Island leading to the loss of an additional 700 km2 (270 sq mi) in February–June 2009.[86]
Pine Island Glacier, an Antarctic outflow glacier that flows into the Amundsen Sea, thinned 3.5 m (11 ft)± 0.9 m
(3.0 ft) per year and retreated a total of 5 km (3.1 mi) in 3.8 years. The terminus of the Pine Island Glacier is a
floating ice shelf, and the point at which it starts to float retreated 1.2 km (0.75 mi) per year from 1992 to 1996. This
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 340
glacier drains a substantial portion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and along with the neighboring Thwaites Glacier,
which has also shown evidence of thinning, has been referred to as the weak underbelly of this ice sheet.[87]
Additionally, the Dakshin Gangotri Glacier, a small outlet glacier of the Antarctic ice sheet, receded at an average
rate of 0.7 m (2.3 ft) per year from 1983 to 2002. On the Antarctic Peninsula, which is the only section of Antarctica
that extends well north of the Antarctic Circle, there are hundreds of retreating glaciers. In one study of 244 glaciers
on the peninsula, 212 have retreated an average of 600 m (2000 ft) from where they were when first measured in
1953.[88] The greatest retreat was seen in Sjogren Glacier, which is now 13 km (8.1 mi) further inland than where it
was in 1953. There are 32 glaciers that were measured to have advanced; however, these glaciers showed only a
modest advance averaging 300 m (980 ft) per glacier, which is significantly smaller than the massive retreat
observed.[89]
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Thomas Mölg. "Worldwide glacier retreat" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php?p=129). RealClimate. . Retrieved March 18, 2005.
[2] Intergovernmental panel on climate change. "2.2.5.4 Mountain glaciers" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 064. htm). Climate
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Retreat of glaciers since 1850 344
Further reading
• Aniya, M. and Y.Wakao (1997). "Glacier variations of Heilo Patagonico Norte, Chile between 1945–46 and
1995–96". Bulletin of Glacier Research 15: 11–18.
• Hall M.H. and Fagre, D.B (2003). "Modeled Climate-Induced Glacier Change in Glacier National Park,
1850–2100". BioScience 53 (2): 131–140. doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2003)053[0131:MCIGCI]2.0.CO;2.
ISSN 0006-3568.
• Hastenrath, S. (2008). Recession of Equatorial Glaciers: A Photodocumentation (http://www.sundogpublishing.
com/Hastenrath/Announcement.html). Madison, WI: Sundog Publishing. ISBN 978-0-9729033-3-2.
• IUGG(CCS)/UNEP/UNESCO (2005). Haeberli, W., Zemp, M., Frauenfelder, R., Hoelzle, M. and Kääb, A.. ed.
Fluctuations of Glaciers 1995–2000, Vol. VIII. Paris: World Glacier Monitoring Service.
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 345
• National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior. "Icefields and Glaciers" (http://www.fs.fed.us/r10/
tongass/forest_facts/resources/geology/icefields.htm). Tongass National Forest, Forest Facts. Retrieved July
10, 2002.
• NOAA. "Arctic Change" (http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/ice-glacier.shtml). Study of Environmental
Arctic Change. Retrieved February 15, 2006.
• Pelto, M.S. and Hartzell, P.L. (2004). "Change in longitudinal profile on three North Cascades glaciers during the
last 100 years". Hydrologic Processes 18 (6): 1139–1146. doi:10.1002/hyp.5513.
• Pelto, M.S. and Hedlund, C. (2001). "The terminus behavior and response time of North Cascade glaciers".
Journal of Glaciology 47 (158): 497–506. doi:10.3189/172756501781832098.
• Pidwirny M. "Glacial Processes" (http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/10ae.html).
PhysicalGeography.net. Retrieved February 2, 2006.
• University College London. "Climate change and the aquatic ecosystems of the Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda"
(http://www.geog.ucl.ac.uk/~rtaylor/data_disk/rwenzori/rwenzori_fo_ir.htm). Glaciology—assessing the
magnitude of current glacial recession. Retrieved September 3, 2003.
• Wielochowski A. "Glacial recession on Kilimanjaro" (http://www.kilimanjaro.cc/glacial-recession.htm).
Retrieved October 6, 1998.
External links
• "United Nations Environment Programme: Global Outlook for Ice and Snow" (http://www.unep.org/geo/
geo_ice/).
Current projections
The scientific consensus in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report is that "Anthropogenic warming could lead to some
impacts that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change." "There is
medium confidence that approximately 20-30% of species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of
extinction if increases in global average warming exceed 1.5-2.5 °C (relative to 1980-1999). As global average
temperature increase exceeds about 3.5°C, model projections suggest significant extinctions (40-70% of species
assessed) around the globe."
In one study published in Nature in 2004, between 15 and 37% of known plant and animal species will be
"committed to extinction" by 2050.[1] More properly, changes in habitat by 2050 will put them outside the survival
range for the inhabitants, thus committing the species to extinction.
Other researchers, such as Thuiller et al.,[2] Araújo et al.[3] , Person et al.,[4] Buckley and Roughgarden,[5] and Harte
et al.[6] have raised concern regarding uncertainty in Thomas et al.'s projections; some of these studies believe it is
an overestimate, others believe the risk could be greater. Thomas et al. replied in Nature [7] addressing criticisms and
concluding "Although further investigation is needed into each of these areas, it is unlikely to result in substantially
reduced estimates of extinction. Anthropogenic climate change seems set to generate very large numbers of
species-level extinctions." On the other hand, Daniel Botkin et al. state "... global estimates of extinctions due to
climate change (Thomas et al. 2004) may have greatly overestimated the probability of extinction..."[8]
Extinction risk from global warming 346
Mechanistic studies are documenting extinctions due to recent climate change: McLaughlin et al. documented two
populations of Bay checkerspot butterfly being threatened by precipitation change.[9] Parmesan states, "Few studies
have been conducted at a scale that encompasses an entire species"[10] and McLaughlin et al. agreed "few
mechanistic studies have linked extinctions to recent climate change."[9]
In 2008, the white lemuroid possum was reported to be the first known mammal species to be driven extinct by
man-made global warming. However, these reports were based on a misunderstanding. One population of these
possums in the mountain forests of northern Queensland is severely threatened by climate change as the animals
cannot survive extended temperatures over 30 °C. However, another population 100 kilometres south remains in
good health.[11]
References
[1] Thomas, C.D.; Cameron, A.; Green, R.E.; Bakkenes, M.; Beaumont, L.J.; Collingham, Y.C.; Erasmus, B.F.N.; Siqueira, M.F.D.; Grainger,
A.; Hannah, L. (2004). "Extinction risk from climate change" (http:/ / www. mnp. nl/ bibliotheek/ digitaaldepot/ 20040108nature. pdf) (PDF).
Nature 427 (6970): 145–148. doi:10.1038/nature02121. PMID 14712274. . Retrieved 2008-04-15.
[2] Thuiller, W.; Araújo, M.B.; Pearson, R.G.; Whittaker, R.J.; Brotons, L.; Lavorel, S. (2004). "Biodiversity conservation: Uncertainty in
predictions of extinction risk". Nature 430: 1. doi:10.1038/nature02716.
[3] Araújo, M.B.; Miguel B.; Whittaker, Robert J.; Ladle, Richard J.; Erhard, Markus (2005). "Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction
risk from climate change" (http:/ / www. ingentaconnect. com/ content/ bsc/ geb/ 2005/ 00000014/ 00000006/ art00004). Global Ecology &
Biogeography, 14 (6): 529–538(10). doi:10.1111/j.1466-822X.2005.00182.x. .
[4] Pearson, Richard G.; Richard G. Pearson, Wilfried Thuiller, Miguel B. Araujo, Enrique Martinez-Meyer, Lluıs Brotons, Colin McClean, Lera
Miles, Pedro Segurado, Terence P. Dawson and David C. Lees (2006). "Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction" (http:/ / www.
will. chez-alice. fr/ pdf/ PearsonJBI2006. pdf) (PDF). Journal of Biogeography 33: 1704–1711. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01460.x. .
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[5] Buckley, L. B; Roughgarden (2004). "Biodiversity conservation: Effects of changes in climate and land use" (http:/ / www. nature. com/
nature/ journal/ v430/ n6995/ abs/ nature02717. html). Nature 430. doi:10.1038/nature02717. .
[6] John Harte; Annette Ostling, Jessica L. Green & Ann Kinzig (2004). "Biodiversity conservation: Climate change and extinction risk" (http:/ /
www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v430/ n6995/ abs/ nature02718. html). Nature 430. doi:10.1038/nature02718. .
[7] Thomas, C.D; Cameron, A.; Green, R.E.; Bakkenes, M.; Beaumont, L.J.; Collingham, Y.C.; Erasmus, B.F.N.; Siqueira, M.F.D.; Grainger, A.;
Hannah, L. (2004). "Biodiversity conservation: Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk/Effects of changes in climate and land use/Climate
change and extinction risk (reply)" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v430/ n6995/ full/ nature02719. html). Nature 430.
doi:10.1038/nature02719. .
[8] Botkin, Daniel B.; et al. (March 2007). "Forecasting the Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity" (http:/ / www. imv. dk/ Admin/ Public/
DWSDownload. aspx?File=/ Files/ Filer/ IMV/ Publikationer/ Fagartikler/ 2007/ 050307_Botkin_et_al. pdf). BioScience 57 (3): 227–236.
doi:10.1641/B570306. . Retrieved 2007-11-30.
[9] McLaughlin, John F.; et al. (2002-04-30). "Climate change hastens population extinctions" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070604183008/
http:/ / www. nd. edu/ ~hellmann/ pnas. pdf) (PDF). PNAS 99 (9): 6070–6074. doi:10.1073/pnas.052131199. PMC 122903. PMID 11972020.
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[10] Permesan, Camille (2006-08-24). "Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change" (http:/ / cns. utexas. edu/
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[11] Rumours of possum's death were greatly exaggerated (http:/ / www. newscientist. com/ article/ dn16875)
Ozone depletion 347
Ozone depletion
Ozone depletion describes two distinct but related phenomena
observed since the late 1970s: a steady decline of about 4% per decade
in the total volume of ozone in Earth's stratosphere (the ozone layer),
and a much larger springtime decrease in stratospheric ozone over
Earth's polar regions. The latter phenomenon is referred to as the ozone
hole. In addition to these well-known stratospheric phenomena, there
are also springtime polar tropospheric ozone depletion events.
the surface. [2] Both types of ozone depletion were observed to increase
as emissions of Halocarbons increased.
CFCs and other contributory substances are referred to as ozone-depleting substances (ODS). Since the ozone layer
prevents most harmful UVB wavelengths (280–315 nm) of ultraviolet light (UV light) from passing through the
Earth's atmosphere, observed and projected decreases in ozone have generated worldwide concern leading to
adoption of the Montreal Protocol that bans the production of CFCs, halons as and other ozone-depleting chemicals
such as carbon tetrachloride and trichloroethane. It is suspected that a variety of biological consequences such as
increases in skin cancer, cataracts,[3] damage to plants, and reduction of plankton populations in the ocean's photic
zone may result from the increased UV exposure due to ozone depletion.
O + O3 → 2 O2
Ozone depletion 348
CFCl3 + hν → CFCl2 + Cl
The Cl and Br atoms can then destroy ozone
molecules through a variety of catalytic
cycles. In the simplest example of such a
cycle,[4] a chlorine atom reacts with an
ozone molecule, taking an oxygen atom
with it (forming ClO) and leaving a normal
oxygen molecule. The chlorine monoxide
(i.e., the ClO) can react with a second
Layers of the
molecule of ozone (i.e., O3) to yield another
atmosphere (not
chlorine atom and two molecules of oxygen. to scale)
The chemical shorthand for these gas-phase
reactions is:
Cl + O3 → ClO + O2
ClO + O3 → Cl + 2 O2
The overall effect is a decrease in the amount of ozone. More complicated mechanisms have been discovered that
lead to ozone destruction in the lower stratosphere as well.
A single chlorine atom would keep on destroying ozone (thus a catalyst) for up to two years (the time scale for
transport back down to the troposphere) were it not for reactions that remove them from this cycle by forming
reservoir species such as hydrogen chloride (HCl) and chlorine nitrate (ClONO2). On a per atom basis, bromine is
Ozone depletion 349
even more efficient than chlorine at destroying ozone, but there is much less bromine in the atmosphere at present.
As a result, both chlorine and bromine contribute significantly to the overall ozone depletion. Laboratory studies
have shown that fluorine and iodine atoms participate in analogous catalytic cycles. However, in the Earth's
stratosphere, fluorine atoms react rapidly with water and methane to form strongly bound HF, while organic
molecules which contain iodine react so rapidly in the lower atmosphere that they do not reach the stratosphere in
significant quantities. Furthermore, a single chlorine atom is able to react with 100,000 ozone molecules. This fact
plus the amount of chlorine released into the atmosphere by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) yearly demonstrates how
dangerous CFCs are to the environment.[5]
In middle latitudes it is preferable to speak of ozone depletion rather than holes. Declines are about 3% below
pre-1980 values for 35–60°N and about 6% for 35–60°S. In the tropics, there are no significant trends.[9]
Ozone depletion also explains much of the observed reduction in stratospheric and upper tropospheric
temperatures.[10] [11] The source of the warmth of the stratosphere is the absorption of UV radiation by ozone, hence
reduced ozone leads to cooling. Some stratospheric cooling is also predicted from increases in greenhouse gases such
as CO2; however the ozone-induced cooling appears to be dominant.
Predictions of ozone levels remain difficult. The World Meteorological Organization Global Ozone Research and
Monitoring Project—Report No. 44 [12] comes out strongly in favor for the Montreal Protocol, but notes that a
UNEP 1994 Assessment overestimated ozone loss for the 1994–1997 period.
Ozone depletion 350
Verification of observations
Scientists have been increasingly able to attribute the observed ozone depletion to the increase of man-made
(anthropogenic) halogen compounds from CFCs by the use of complex chemistry transport models and their
validation against observational data (e.g. SLIMCAT, CLaMS — Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere).
These models work by combining satellite measurements of chemical concentrations and meteorological fields with
chemical reaction rate constants obtained in lab experiments. They are able to identify not only the key chemical
reactions but also the transport processes which bring CFC photolysis products into contact with ozone.
catalyze ozone destruction. The Cl-catalyzed ozone depletion can take place in the gas phase, but it is dramatically
enhanced in the presence of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs).[17]
These polar stratospheric clouds(PSC) form during winter, in the extreme cold. Polar winters are dark, consisting of
3 months without solar radiation (sunlight). The lack of sunlight contributes to a decrease in temperature and the
polar vortex traps and chills air. Temperatures hover around or below -80 °C. These low temperatures form cloud
particles. There are three types of PSC clouds; nitric acid trihydrate clouds, slowly cooling water-ice clouds, and
rapid cooling water-ice(nacerous) clouds; that provide surfaces for chemical reactions that lead to ozone
destruction.[18]
The photochemical processes involved are complex but well understood. The key observation is that, ordinarily,
most of the chlorine in the stratosphere resides in stable "reservoir" compounds, primarily hydrochloric acid (HCl)
and chlorine nitrate (ClONO2). During the Antarctic winter and spring, however, reactions on the surface of the
polar stratospheric cloud particles convert these "reservoir" compounds into reactive free radicals (Cl and ClO). The
clouds can also remove NO2 from the atmosphere by converting it to nitric acid, which prevents the newly formed
ClO from being converted back into ClONO2.
The role of sunlight in ozone depletion is the reason why the Antarctic ozone depletion is greatest during spring.
During winter, even though PSCs are at their most abundant, there is no light over the pole to drive the chemical
reactions. During the spring, however, the sun comes out, providing energy to drive photochemical reactions, and
melt the polar stratospheric clouds, releasing the trapped compounds. Warming temperatures near the end of spring
break up the vortex around mid-December. As warm, ozone-rich air flows in from lower latitudes, the PSCs are
destroyed, the ozone depletion process shuts down, and the ozone hole closes.[19]
Most of the ozone that is destroyed is in the lower stratosphere, in contrast to the much smaller ozone depletion
through homogeneous gas phase reactions, which occurs primarily in the upper stratosphere.[20]
which has also been implicated in some forms of skin cancer, is not absorbed by ozone, and it is nearly impossible to
control statistics for lifestyle changes in the populace.
Increased UV
Ozone, while a minority constituent in the Earth's atmosphere, is responsible for most of the absorption of UVB
radiation. The amount of UVB radiation that penetrates through the ozone layer decreases exponentially with the
slant-path thickness/density of the layer. Correspondingly, a decrease in atmospheric ozone is expected to give rise
to significantly increased levels of UVB near the surface.
Increases in surface UVB due to the ozone hole can be partially inferred by radiative transfer model calculations, but
cannot be calculated from direct measurements because of the lack of reliable historical (pre-ozone-hole) surface UV
data, although more recent surface UV observation measurement programmes exist (e.g. at Lauder, New
Zealand).[24]
Because it is this same UV radiation that creates ozone in the ozone layer from O2 (regular oxygen) in the first place,
a reduction in stratospheric ozone would actually tend to increase photochemical production of ozone at lower levels
(in the troposphere), although the overall observed trends in total column ozone still show a decrease, largely
because ozone produced lower down has a naturally shorter photochemical lifetime, so it is destroyed before the
concentrations could reach a level which would compensate for the ozone reduction higher up.
Biological effects
The main public concern regarding the ozone hole has been the effects of increased surface UV radiation on human
health. So far, ozone depletion in most locations has been typically a few percent and, as noted above, no direct
evidence of health damage is available in most latitudes. Were the high levels of depletion seen in the ozone hole
ever to be common across the globe, the effects could be substantially more dramatic. As the ozone hole over
Antarctica has in some instances grown so large as to reach southern parts of Australia, New Zealand, Chile,
Argentina, and South Africa, environmentalists have been concerned that the increase in surface UV could be
significant.[25]
Ozone depletion will change all of the effects of UVB on human health, both positive and negative.
UVB (the higher energy UV radiation absorbed by ozone) is generally accepted to be a contributory factor to skin
cancer and to produce Vitamin D. In addition, increased surface UV leads to increased tropospheric ozone, which is
a health risk to humans.[26]
1. Basal and Squamous Cell Carcinomas — The most common forms of skin cancer in humans, basal and
squamous cell carcinomas, have been strongly linked to UVB exposure. The mechanism by which UVB induces
these cancers is well understood—absorption of UVB radiation causes the pyrimidine bases in the DNA molecule to
form dimers, resulting in transcription errors when the DNA replicates. These cancers are relatively mild and rarely
fatal, although the treatment of squamous cell carcinoma sometimes requires extensive reconstructive surgery. By
combining epidemiological data with results of animal studies, scientists have estimated that a one percent decrease
in stratospheric ozone would increase the incidence of these cancers by 2%.[27]
2. Malignant Melanoma — Another form of skin cancer, malignant melanoma, is much less common but far more
dangerous, being lethal in about 15–20% of the cases diagnosed. The relationship between malignant melanoma and
ultraviolet exposure is not yet well understood, but it appears that both UVB and UVA are involved. Experiments on
fish suggest that 90 to 95% of malignant melanomas may be due to UVA and visible radiation[28] whereas
experiments on opossums suggest a larger role for UVB.[27] Because of this uncertainty, it is difficult to estimate the
impact of ozone depletion on melanoma incidence. One study showed that a 10% increase in UVB radiation was
associated with a 19% increase in melanomas for men and 16% for women.[29] A study of people in Punta Arenas, at
the southern tip of Chile, showed a 56% increase in melanoma and a 46% increase in nonmelanoma skin cancer over
a period of seven years, along with decreased ozone and increased UVB levels.[30]
Ozone depletion 353
3. Cortical Cataracts — Studies are suggestive of an association between ocular cortical cataracts and UV-B
exposure, using crude approximations of exposure and various cataract assessment techniques. A detailed assessment
of ocular exposure to UV-B was carried out in a study on Chesapeake Bay Watermen, where increases in average
annual ocular exposure were associated with increasing risk of cortical opacity.[31] In this highly exposed group of
predominantly white males, the evidence linking cortical opacities to sunlight exposure was the strongest to date.
However, subsequent data from a population-based study in Beaver Dam, WI suggested the risk may be confined to
men. In the Beaver Dam study, the exposures among women were lower than exposures among men, and no
association was seen.[32] Moreover, there were no data linking sunlight exposure to risk of cataract in African
Americans, although other eye diseases have different prevalences among the different racial groups, and cortical
opacity appears to be higher in African Americans compared with whites.[33] [34]
4. Increased Tropospheric Ozone — Increased surface UV leads to increased tropospheric ozone. Ground-level
ozone is generally recognized to be a health risk, as ozone is toxic due to its strong oxidant properties. At this time,
ozone at ground level is produced mainly by the action of UV radiation on combustion gases from vehicle exhausts.
5. Increased production of Vitamin D
Main article: Vitamin D
Vitamin D is produced in the skin by ultraviolet light. Thus increases in UV-B exposure raise human vitamin D in
those deficient. Recent research (primarily since the Montreal protocol), shows that many humans have less than
optimal vitamin D levels. In particular, the lowest quartile of vitamin D (<17.8 ng/ml), in the US population were
found using information from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to be associated with an
increase in all cause mortality in the general population.[35] While, higher level of Vitamin D are associated with
higher mortality, the body has mechanisms that prevent sunlight from producing too much Vitamin D. .[36]
Effects on crops
An increase of UV radiation would be expected to affect crops. A number of economically important species of
plants, such as rice, depend on cyanobacteria residing on their roots for the retention of nitrogen. Cyanobacteria are
sensitive to UV light and they would be affected by its increase.[39]
Public policy
The full extent of the damage that CFCs have caused to the ozone layer
is not known and will not be known for decades; however, marked
decreases in column ozone have already been observed (as explained
before).
After a 1976 report by the United States National Academy of Sciences
concluded that credible scientific evidence supported the ozone
depletion hypothesis[40] a few countries, including the United States,
Canada, Sweden, Denmark, and Norway, moved to eliminate the use
of CFCs in aerosol spray cans.[41] At the time this was widely regarded
as a first step towards a more comprehensive regulation policy, but
progress in this direction slowed in subsequent years, due to a
combination of political factors (continued resistance from the
NASA projections of stratospheric ozone
halocarbon industry and a general change in attitude towards concentrations if chlorofluorocarbons had not
environmental regulation during the first two years of the Reagan been banned.
administration) and scientific developments (subsequent National
Academy assessments which indicated that the first estimates of the magnitude of ozone depletion had been overly
large). A critical DuPont manufacturing patent for Freon was set to expire in 1979
Chlorofluorocarbon#Regulation_and_DuPont. The United States banned the use of CFCs in aerosol cans in 1978.[41]
The European Community rejected proposals to ban CFCs in aerosol sprays, and in the U.S., CFCs continued to be
used as refrigerants and for cleaning circuit boards. Worldwide CFC production fell sharply after the U.S. aerosol
ban, but by 1986 had returned nearly to its 1976 level.[41] In 1993, DuPont shut down its CFC facility.[42]
The U.S. Government's attitude began to change again in 1983, when William Ruckelshaus replaced Anne M.
Burford as Administrator of the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Under Ruckelshaus and his
successor, Lee Thomas, the EPA pushed for an international approach to halocarbon regulations. In 1985 20 nations,
including most of the major CFC producers, signed the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer
which established a framework for negotiating international regulations on ozone-depleting substances. That same
year, the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole was announced, causing a revival in public attention to the issue. In
1987, representatives from 43 nations signed the Montreal Protocol. Meanwhile, the halocarbon industry shifted its
position and started supporting a protocol to limit CFC production. The reasons for this were in part explained by
"Dr. Mostafa Tolba, former head of the UN Environment Programme, who was quoted in the 30 June 1990 edition
of The New Scientist, '...the chemical industry supported the Montreal Protocol in 1987 because it set up a
worldwide schedule for phasing out CFCs, which [were] no longer protected by patents. This provided companies
with an equal opportunity to market new, more profitable compounds.'"[43]
At Montreal, the participants agreed to freeze production of CFCs at 1986 levels and to reduce production by 50%
by 1999.[41] After a series of scientific expeditions to the Antarctic produced convincing evidence that the ozone
hole was indeed caused by chlorine and bromine from manmade organohalogens, the Montreal Protocol was
strengthened at a 1990 meeting in London. The participants agreed to phase out CFCs and halons entirely (aside
from a very small amount marked for certain "essential" uses, such as asthma inhalers) by 2000 in non-Article 5
countries and by 2010 in Article 5 (less developed) signatories [44] At a 1992 meeting in Copenhagen, the phase out
Ozone depletion 355
date was moved up to 1996.[44] At the same meeting, methyl bromide (MeBr), a fumigant used primarily in
agricultural production, was added to the list of controlled substances. It should be noted that for all substances
controlled under the Protocol, phaseout schedules were delayed for less developed ('Article 5(1)') countries, and
phaseout in these countries was supported by transfers of expertise, technology, and money from non-Article 5(1)
Parties to the Protocol. Additionally, exemptions from the agreed schedules could be applied for under the Essential
Use Exemption (EUE) process for substances other than methyl bromide and under the Critical Use Exemption
(CUE) process for methyl bromide. See Gareau[45] and DeCanio and Norman[46] for more detail on the exemption
processes.
To some extent, CFCs have been replaced by the less damaging hydro-chloro-fluoro-carbons (HCFCs), although
concerns remain regarding HCFCs also. In some applications, hydro-fluoro-carbons (HFCs) have been used to
replace CFCs. HFCs, which contain no chlorine or bromine, do not contribute at all to ozone depletion although they
are potent greenhouse gases. The best known of these compounds is probably HFC-134a (R-134a), which in the
United States has largely replaced CFC-12 (R-12) in automobile air conditioners. In laboratory analytics (a former
"essential" use) the ozone depleting substances can be replaced with various other solvents.[47]
Ozone Diplomacy, by Richard Benedick (Harvard University Press, 1991) gives a detailed account of the negotiation
process that led to the Montreal Protocol. Pielke and Betsill [48] provide an extensive review of early U.S.
government responses to the emerging science of ozone depletion by CFCs.
More recently, policy experts have advocated for efforts to link ozone protection efforts to climate protection
efforts.[49] [50] Many ODS are also greenhouse gasses, some significantly more powerful agents of radiative forcing
than carbon dioxide over the short and medium term. Policy decisions in one arena affect the costs and effectiveness
of environmental improvements in the other.
When the 2004 ozone hole ended in November 2004, daily minimum stratospheric temperatures in the Antarctic
lower stratosphere increased to levels that are too warm for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) about
2 to 3 weeks earlier than in most recent years.[54]
The Arctic winter of 2005 was extremely cold in the stratosphere; PSCs were abundant over many high-latitude
areas until dissipated by a big warming event, which started in the upper stratosphere during February and spread
throughout the Arctic stratosphere in March. The size of the Arctic area of anomalously low total ozone in
2004–2005 was larger than in any year since 1997. The predominance of anomalously low total ozone values in the
Arctic region in the winter of 2004–2005 is attributed to the very low stratospheric temperatures and meteorological
conditions favorable for ozone destruction along with the continued presence of ozone destroying chemicals in the
stratosphere.[55]
A 2005 IPCC summary of ozone issues concluded that observations and model calculations suggest that the global
average amount of ozone depletion has now approximately stabilized. Although considerable variability in ozone is
expected from year to year, including in polar regions where depletion is largest, the ozone layer is expected to begin
to recover in coming decades due to declining ozone-depleting substance concentrations, assuming full compliance
with the Montreal Protocol.[56]
Temperatures during the Arctic winter of 2006 stayed fairly close to the long-term average until late January, with
minimum readings frequently cold enough to produce PSCs. During the last week of January, however, a major
warming event sent temperatures well above normal — much too warm to support PSCs. By the time temperatures
dropped back to near normal in March, the seasonal norm was well above the PSC threshold.[57] Preliminary satellite
instrument-generated ozone maps show seasonal ozone buildup slightly below the long-term means for the Northern
Hemisphere as a whole, although some high ozone events have occurred.[58] During March 2006, the Arctic
stratosphere poleward of 60° North Latitude was free of anomalously low ozone areas except during the three-day
period from 17 March to 19 when the total ozone cover fell below 300 DU over part of the North Atlantic region
from Greenland to Scandinavia.[59]
The area where total column ozone is less than 220 DU (the accepted definition of the boundary of the ozone hole)
was relatively small until around 20 August 2006. Since then the ozone hole area increased rapidly, peaking at 29
million km² 24 September. In October 2006, NASA reported that the year's ozone hole set a new area record with a
daily average of 26 million km² between 7 September and 13 October 2006; total ozone thicknesses fell as low as 85
DU on 8 October. The two factors combined, 2006 sees the worst level of depletion in recorded ozone history. The
depletion is attributed to the temperatures above the Antarctic reaching the lowest recording since comprehensive
records began in 1979.[60] [61]
On October 2008 the Ecuadorian Space Agency published a report called HIPERION, a study of the last 28 years
data from 10 satellites and dozens of ground instruments around the world among them their own, and found that the
UV radiation reaching equatorial latitudes was far greater than expected, climbing in some very populated cities up
to 24 UVI, the WHO UV Index standard considers 11 as an extreme index and a great risk to health. The report
concluded that the ozone depletion around mid latitudes on the planet is already endangering large populations in
this areas. Later, the CONIDA, the Peruvian Space Agency, made its own study, which found almost the same facts
as the Ecuadorian study.
The Antarctic ozone hole is expected to continue for decades. Ozone concentrations in the lower stratosphere over
Antarctica will increase by 5%–10% by 2020 and return to pre-1980 levels by about 2060–2075, 10–25 years later
than predicted in earlier assessments. This is because of revised estimates of atmospheric concentrations of Ozone
Depleting Substances — and a larger predicted future usage in developing countries. Another factor which may
aggravate ozone depletion is the draw-down of nitrogen oxides from above the stratosphere due to changing wind
patterns.[62]
Ozone depletion 357
Academy of Sciences released a report which concluded that the ozone depletion hypothesis was strongly supported
by the scientific evidence. Scientists calculated that if CFC production continued to increase at the going rate of 10%
per year until 1990 and then remain steady, CFCs would cause a global ozone loss of 5 to 7% by 1995, and a 30 to
50% loss by 2050. In response the United States, Canada and Norway banned the use of CFCs in aerosol spray cans
in 1978. However, subsequent research, summarized by the National Academy in reports issued between 1979 and
1984, appeared to show that the earlier estimates of global ozone loss had been too large.[63]
Crutzen, Molina, and Rowland were awarded the 1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for their work on stratospheric
ozone.
Very violent volcanic eruptions can inject HCl into the stratosphere, but researchers[84] have shown that the
contribution is not significant compared to that from CFCs. A similar erroneous assertion is that soluble halogen
compounds from the volcanic plume of Mount Erebus on Ross Island, Antarctica are a major contributor to the
Antarctic ozone hole.[84]
An ozone hole was first observed in 1956
G.M.B. Dobson (Exploring the Atmosphere, 2nd Edition, Oxford, 1968) mentioned that when springtime ozone
levels over Halley Bay were first measured in 1956, he was surprised to find that they were ~320 DU, about 150 DU
below spring levels, ~450 DU, in the Arctic. These, however, were at this time the known normal climatological
values because no other Antarctic ozone data were available. What Dobson describes is essentially the baseline from
which the ozone hole is measured: actual ozone hole values are in the 150–100 DU range.
The discrepancy between the Arctic and Antarctic noted by Dobson was primarily a matter of timing: during the
Arctic spring ozone levels rose smoothly, peaking in April, whereas in the Antarctic they stayed approximately
constant during early spring, rising abruptly in November when the polar vortex broke down.
The behavior seen in the Antarctic ozone hole is completely different. Instead of staying constant, early springtime
ozone levels suddenly drop from their already low winter values, by as much as 50%, and normal values are not
reached again until December.[85]
The ozone hole should be above the sources of CFCs
Ozone depletion 361
Some people thought that the ozone hole should be above the sources of CFCs. However, CFCs are well mixed
globally in the troposphere and the stratosphere. The reason for occurrence of the ozone hole above Antarctica is not
because there are more CFCs concentrated but because the low temperatures help form polar stratospheric clouds.[86]
In fact, there are findings of significant and localized "ozone holes" above other parts of the earth.[87]
The "ozone hole" is a hole in the ozone layer
There is a common misconception that the “ozone hole” is really a hole in the ozone layer. When the "ozone hole"
occurs, the ozone in the lower stratosphere is destroyed. The upper stratosphere is less affected, so that the amount of
ozone over the continent decreases by 50 percent or even more. The ozone does not disappear through the layer, nor
is there a uniform 'thinning' of the ozone layer. It is a "hole" which is a depression, not in the sense of "a hole in the
windshield."
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Ozone depletion 362
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Nontechnical books
• Dray, Philip; Cagin, Seth (1993). Between earth and sky: how CFCs changed our world and endangered the
ozone layer. New York: Pantheon Books. ISBN 0-679-42052-5.
• Roan, Sharon (1989). Ozone crisis: The 15-year evolution of a sudden global emergency. New York: Wiley.
ISBN 0-471-52823-4.
• Schiff, Harold; Dotto, Lydia; (1978). The Ozone war. Garden City, N.Y: Doubleday. ISBN 0-385-12927-0.
Research articles
• Newman, P. A., Kawa, S. R. and Nash, E. R. (2004). "On the size of the Antarctic ozone hole?". Geophysical
Research Letters 31: L12814. Bibcode 2004GeoRL..3121104N. doi:10.1029/2004GL020596.
• E. C. Weatherhead, S. B. Andersen (2006). "The search for signs of recovery of the ozone layer". Nature 441
(7089): 39–45. doi:10.1038/nature04746. PMID 16672963.
External links
• Ozone layer (http://www.dmoz.org/Science/Environment/Ozone_Layer/) at the Open Directory Project
• UN Chronicle Unlayering of the Ozone: An Earth Sans Sunscreen (http://www.un.org/wcm/content/site/
chronicle/cache/bypass/lang/en/home/archive/Issues2009/pid/
5087;jsessionid=9B6FA6D357CDB4E92CAE6B2B784D33BF?ctnscroll_articleContainerList=1_0&
ctnlistpagination_articleContainerList=true)
• NOAA/ESRL Ozone Depletion (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/about/ozone.html)
• NOAA Ozone Depleting Gas Index (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/odgi/)
• The Ozone Hole (http://www.theozonehole.com)
Ocean acidification
Ocean acidification is the name given to
the ongoing decrease in the pH of the
Earth's oceans, caused by their uptake of
anthropogenic carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere.[1] Between 1751 and 1994
surface ocean pH is estimated to have
decreased from approximately 8.25 to
8.14,[2] representing an increase of
approaching 30% in "acidity" (H+ ion
concentration) in the world's oceans.[3] [4] [5]
Change in sea surface pH caused by anthropogenic CO2 between the 1700s and the
1990s
Ocean acidification 366
Carbon cycle
The carbon cycle describes the fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) between
the oceans, terrestrial biosphere, lithosphere,[6] and the atmosphere.
Human activities such as land use changes, the combustion of fossil
fuels, and the production of cement have led to a new flux of CO2 into
the atmosphere. Some of this has remained there; some has been taken
up by terrestrial plants,[7] and some has been absorbed by the oceans.[8]
The carbon cycle comes in two forms: the organic carbon cycle and the
inorganic carbon cycle. The inorganic carbon cycle is particularly
The CO2 cycle between the atmosphere and the
relevant when discussing ocean acidification for it includes the many
ocean
forms of dissolved CO2 present in the Earth's oceans.[9]
When CO2 dissolves, it reacts with water to form a balance of ionic and non-ionic chemical species: dissolved free
carbon dioxide (CO2(aq)), carbonic acid (H2CO3), bicarbonate (HCO) and carbonate (CO). The ratio of these species
depends on factors such as seawater temperature and alkalinity (see the article on the ocean's solubility pump for
more detail).
Acidification
Dissolving CO2 in seawater increases the hydrogen ion (H+)
concentration in the ocean, and thus decreases ocean pH. Caldeira and
Wickett (2003)[1] placed the rate and magnitude of modern ocean
acidification changes in the context of probable historical changes
during the last 300 million years.
Since the industrial revolution began, it is estimated that surface ocean pH has dropped by slightly more than 0.1
units on the logarithmic scale of pH, representing an approximately 29% increase in H+, and it is estimated that it
will drop by a further 0.3 to 0.5 pH units (an additional doubling to tripling of today's post-industrial acid
concentrations) by 2100 as the oceans absorb more anthropogenic CO2.[1] [10] [15] These changes are predicted to
Ocean acidification 367
continue rapidly as the oceans take up more anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere, the degree of change to ocean
chemistry, for example ocean pH, will depend on the mitigation and emissions pathways society takes.[16] Note that,
although the ocean is acidifying, its pH is still greater than 7 (that of neutral water), so the ocean could also be
described as becoming less basic.
Although the largest changes are expected in the future,[10] a report from NOAA scientists found large quantities of
water undersaturated in aragonite are already upwelling close to the Pacific continental shelf area of North
America.[17] Continental shelves play an important role in marine ecosystems since most marine organisms live or
are spawned there, and though the study only dealt with the area from Vancouver to northern California, the authors
suggest that other shelf areas may be experiencing similar effects.[17]
Rate of Acidification
Similarly, one of the first detailed datasets examining temporal variations in pH at a temperate coastal location found
that acidification was occurring at a rate much higher than that previously predicted, with consequences for
near-shore benthic ecosystems.[18] [19]
A December 2009 National Geographic report quoted Thomas Lovejoy, former chief biodiversity advisor to the
World Bank on recent research suggesting "the acidity of the oceans will more than double in the next 40 years. This
rate is 100 times faster than any changes in ocean acidity in the last 20 million years, making it unlikely that marine
life can somehow adapt to the changes."[20]
According to research, from the University of Bristol, published in the journal Nature Geoscience in February 2010,
compared current rates of ocean acidification with the greenhouse event at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary, about 55
million years ago when surface ocean temperatures rose by 5-6 degrees Celsius, during which time no catastrophe is
seen in surface ecosystems, yet bottom-dwelling organisms in the deep ocean experienced a major extinction. They
concluded that the current acidification is on path to reach levels higher than any seen in the last 65 million years.[21]
The study also found that the current rate of acidification is "ten times the rate that preceded the mass extinction 55
million years ago," and Ridgwell commented that the present rate "is an almost unprecedented geological event."[22]
A National Research Council study released in April 2010 likewise concluded that "the level of acid in the oceans is
increasing at an unprecedented rate."[23]
A review by climate scientists at the RealClimate blog, of a 2005 report by the Royal Society of the UK similarly
highlighted the centrality of the rates of change in the present anthropogenic acidification process, writing:[24]
"The natural pH of the ocean is determined by a need to balance the deposition and burial of CaCO3 on
the sea floor against the influx of Ca2+ and CO into the ocean from dissolving rocks on land, called
weathering. These processes stabilize the pH of the ocean, by a mechanism called CaCO3
compensation...The point of bringing it up again is to note that if the CO2 concentration of the
atmosphere changes more slowly than this, as it always has throughout the Vostok record, the pH of the
ocean will be relatively unaffected because CaCO3 compensation can keep up. The [present] fossil fuel
acidification is much faster than natural changes, and so the acid spike will be more intense than the
earth has seen in at least 800,000 years."
A July 2010 article in Scientific American quoted marine geologist William Howard of the Antarctic Climate and
Ecosystems Cooperative Research Center in Hobart, Tasmania stating that "the current rate of ocean acidification is
about a hundred times faster than the most rapid events" in the geologic past.[25] Research at the University of South
Florida has shown that in the 15-year period 1995-2010 alone, acidity has increased 6 percent in the upper 100
meters of the Pacific Ocean from Hawaii to Alaska.[26]
Ocean acidification 368
Calcification
Changes in ocean chemistry can have extensive direct and indirect effects on organisms and their habitats. One of the
most important repercussions of increasing ocean acidity relates to the production of shells and plates out of calcium
carbonate (CaCO3).[15] This process is called calcification and is important to the biology and survival of a wide
range of marine organisms. Calcification involves the precipitation of dissolved ions into solid CaCO3 structures,
such as coccoliths. After they are formed, such structures are vulnerable to dissolution unless the surrounding
seawater contains saturating concentrations of carbonate ions. The saturation state of seawater for a mineral (known
as Ω) is a measure of the thermodynamic potential for the mineral to form or to dissolve, and is described by the
following equation:
Here Ω is the product of the concentrations (or activities) of the reacting ions that form the mineral (Ca2+ and CO),
divided by the product of the concentrations of those ions when the mineral is at equilibrium (Ksp), that is, when the
mineral is neither forming nor dissolving.[27] In seawater, a natural horizontal boundary is formed as a result of
temperature, pressure, and depth, and is known as the saturation horizon, or lysocline.[15] Above this saturation
horizon, Ω has a value greater than 1, and CaCO3 does not readily dissolve. Most calcifying organisms live in such
waters.[15] Below this depth, Ω has a value less than 1, and CaCO3 will dissolve. However, if its production rate is
high enough to offset dissolution, CaCO3 can still occur where Ω is less than 1. The carbonate compensation depth
occurs at the depth in the ocean where production is exceeded by dissolution.[28]
Calcium carbonate occurs in 2 common polymorphs: aragonite and calcite. Aragonite is much more soluble than
calcite, with the result that the aragonite saturation horizon is always nearer to the surface than the calcite saturation
horizon.[15] This also means that those organisms that produce aragonite may possibly be more vulnerable to
changes in ocean acidity than those that produce calcite.[10] Increasing CO2 levels and the resulting lower pH of
seawater decreases the saturation state of CaCO3 and raises the saturation horizons of both forms closer to the
surface.[29] This decrease in saturation state is believed to be one of the main factors leading to decreased
calcification in marine organisms, as it has been found that the inorganic precipitation of CaCO3 is directly
proportional to its saturation state.[30]
Possible impacts
Although the natural absorption of CO2 by the world's oceans helps mitigate the climatic effects of anthropogenic
emissions of CO2, it is believed that the resulting decrease in pH will have negative consequences, primarily for
oceanic calcifying organisms. These span the food chain from autotrophs to heterotrophs and include organisms such
as coccolithophores, corals, foraminifera, echinoderms, crustaceans and molluscs. As described above, under normal
conditions, calcite and aragonite are stable in surface waters since the carbonate ion is at supersaturating
concentrations. However, as ocean pH falls, so does the concentration of this ion, and when carbonate becomes
undersaturated, structures made of calcium carbonate are vulnerable to dissolution. Even if there is no change in the
rate of calcification, therefore, the rate of dissolution of calcareous material increases.[31]
Research has already found that corals,[32] [33] [34] coccolithophore algae,[35] [36] [37] [38] coralline algae,[39]
foraminifera,[40] shellfish[41] and pteropods[10] [42] experience reduced calcification or enhanced dissolution when
exposed to elevated CO2. The Royal Society of London published a comprehensive overview of ocean acidification,
and its potential consequences, in June 2005.[15] However, some studies have found different response to ocean
acidification, with coccolithophore calcification and photosynthesis both increasing under elevated atmospheric
pCO2,[43] [44] [45] an equal decline in primary production and calcification in response to elevated CO2[46] or the
direction of the response varying between species.[47] Recent work examining a sediment core from the North
Atlantic found that while the species composition of coccolithophorids has remained unchanged for the industrial
Ocean acidification 369
period 1780 to 2004, the calcification of coccoliths has increased by up to 40% during the same time.[45] While the
full ecological consequences of these changes in calcification are still uncertain, it appears likely that many
calcifying species will be adversely affected. When exposed in experiments to pH reduced by 0.2 to 0.4, larvae of a
temperate brittlestar, a relative of the common sea star, fewer than 0.1 percent survived more than eight days.[26]
There is also a suggestion that a decline in the coccolithophores may have secondary effects on climate, contributing
to global warming by decreasing the Earth's albedo via their effects on oceanic cloud cover.[48]
Aside from calcification, organisms may suffer other adverse effects, either directly as reproductive or physiological
effects (e.g. CO2-induced acidification of body fluids, known as hypercapnia), or indirectly through negative impacts
on food resources.[15] Ocean acidification may also force some organisms to reallocate resources away from
productive endpoints such as growth in order to maintain calcification.[49] It has even been suggested that ocean
acidification will alter the acoustic properties of seawater, allowing sound to propagate further, increasing ocean
noise and impacting animals that use sound for echolocation or communication.[50] However, as with calcification,
as yet there is not a full understanding of these processes in marine organisms or ecosystems.[51]
Leaving aside direct biological effects, it is expected that ocean acidification in the future will lead to a significant
decrease in the burial of carbonate sediments for several centuries, and even the dissolution of existing carbonate
sediments.[52] This will cause an elevation of ocean alkalinity, leading to the enhancement of the ocean as a reservoir
for CO2 with moderate (and potentially beneficial) implications for climate change as more CO2 leaves the
atmosphere for the ocean.[53]
Gallery
"Present day" (1990s) sea surface "Present day" (1990s) sea Vertical inventory of "present Change in surface CO ion from
pH surface anthropogenic CO2 day" (1990s) anthropogenic CO2 the 1700s to the 1990s
Ocean acidification 370
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Further reading
• Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC) (2008). Position analysis: CO2
emissions and climate change: OCEAN impacts and adaptation issues. (http://www.acecrc.org.au/uploaded/
117/797619_20pa02_acidification_0805.pdf) ISSN: 1835–7911. Hobart, Tasmania.
• Cicerone, R.; J. Orr, P. Brewer et al. (2004). "The Ocean in a High CO2 World" (http://www.ipsl.jussieu.fr/
~jomce/pubs/Cicerone_etal_2004_EOS.pdf). EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union 85 (37):
351–353. Bibcode 2004EOSTr..85R.351C. doi:10.1029/2004EO370007.
• Doney, S. C. (2006). "The Dangers of Ocean Acidification". Scientific American 294 (3): 58–65.
doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0306-58. ISSN 0036-8733. PMID 16502612., ( Article preview only (http://www.
sciam.com/article.cfm?chanID=sa006&colID=1&articleID=00057536-E87F-13F5-A75F83414B7FFE9F)).
• Feely, R. A.; Sabine, Christopher L.; Lee, Kitack; Berelson, Will; Kleypas, Joanie; Fabry, Victoria J.; Millero,
Frank J. (2004). "Impact of Anthropogenic CO2 on the CaCO3 System in the Oceans" (http://www.sciencemag.
org/cgi/content/abstract/sci;305/5682/362) (abstract). Science 305 (5682): 362–366.
doi:10.1126/science.1097329. PMID 15256664.
• Harrould-Kolieb, E.; Savitz, J. (2008). "Acid Test: Can We Save Our Oceans From CO2?" (http://na.oceana.
org/en/news-media/publications/reports/acid-test-can-we-save-our-oceans-from-co2). Oceana.
• Henderson, Caspar (2006-08-05). "Ocean acidification: the other CO2 problem" (http://environment.
newscientist.com/article/mg19125631.200). NewScientist.com news service.
• Jacobson, M. Z. (2005). "Studying ocean acidification with conservative, stable numerical schemes for
nonequilibrium air-ocean exchange and ocean equilibrium chemistry". Journal of Geophysical Research -
Atmospheres 110: D07302. Bibcode 2005JGRD..11007302J. doi:10.1029/2004JD005220.
• Kleypas, J.A., R.A. Feely, V.J. Fabry, C. Langdon, C.L. Sabine, and L.L. Robbins. (2006). Impacts of Ocean
Acidification on Coral Reefs and Other Marine Calcifiers: A Guide for Further Research (http://www.ucar.edu/
communications/Final_acidification.pdf), report of a workshop held 18–20 April 2005, St. Petersburg, FL,
sponsored by NSF, NOAA and the U.S. Geological Survey, 88pp.
Ocean acidification 373
• Kolbert, E. (2006-11-20). "The Darkening Sea: Carbon emissions and the ocean" (http://www.newyorker.com/
archive/2006/11/20/061120fa_fact_kolbert). The New Yorker.
• Kump, Lee R.; Kasting, James F.; Crane., Robert G. (2003). The Earth System (2nd ed.). Upper Saddle River:
Prentice Hall. pp. 162–164. ISBN 0613918142.
• Riebesell, U., V. J. Fabry, L. Hansson & J.-P. Gattuso (Eds.). (2010). Guide to best practices for ocean
acidification research and data reporting (http://www.epoca-project.eu/index.php/Home/
Guide-to-OA-Research/), 260 p. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
• Sabine, C. L.; Feely, Richard A.; Gruber, Nicolas; Key, Robert M.; Lee, Kitack; Bullister, John L. et al. (2004).
"The Oceanic Sink for Anthropogenic CO2" (http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/305/5682/
367) (abstract). Science 305 (5682): 367–371. doi:10.1126/science.1097403. PMID 15256665.
• Stone, R. (2007). "A World Without Corals?" (http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/316/5825/
678). Science 316 (5825): 678–681. doi:10.1126/science.316.5825.678. PMID 17478692.
External links
Scientific sources:
• How Acidification Threatens Oceans from the Inside Out (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.
cfm?id=threatening-ocean-life) Scientific American August 9, 2010 by Marah J. Hardt and Carl Safina
• Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (http://royalsociety.org/displaypagedoc.
asp?id=13539), report by the Royal Society (UK)
• AR4 WG1 Chapter 5: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level (http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/
ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter5.pdf), IPCC
• State of the Science FACT SHEET: Ocean acidification (http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/yos/
resource/01state_of_science.pdf), NOAA
• Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://cdiac.ornl.gov/) (CDIAC), the primary data analysis
center of the U.S. Department of Energy (located at Oak Ridge National Laboratory)
• Ocean acidification introduction (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/ocean-acidification/), USGS
• Climate change threatening the Southern Ocean (http://csiro.au/multimedia/
Climate-change-threat-to-Southern-Ocean.html), report by CSIRO
• The Ocean in a High CO2 World (http://www.ocean-acidification.net/), an international science symposium
series
• The Acid Ocean – the Other Problem with CO2 Emission (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=169),
David Archer, a RealClimate discussion
• Regularly updated "blog" of ocean acidification publications and news (http://oceanacidification.wordpress.
com/), Jean-Pierre Gattuso (http://www.obs-vlfr.fr/~gattuso/)
• Task Force on Ocean Acidification in the Pacific (http://www.pacificscience.org/tfoceanacidification.html),
including recent presentations on ocean acidification, Pacific Science Association
• Ocean Acidification (http://www.thew2o.net/events/oceans/oa.php), a multimedia, interactive site from The
World Ocean Observatory (http://www.thew2o.net)
• Acidic Oceans: Why should we care? Perspectives in ocean science (http://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=kQMZfCKuFIQ), Andrew Dickson, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
• Climate Change: Coral Reefs on the Edge (http://site.videoproject.com/coralreefs/) A video presentation by
Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg on impact of ocean acidification on coral reefs
Scientific projects:
• Dr. Francisco Chavez on Ocean Acidification - Smithsonian Ocean Portal (http://ocean.si.edu/ocean-videos/
dr-francisco-chavez-ocean-acidification)
Ocean acidification 374
Alpine Flora at Logan Pass, Glacier National Park, in Montana, USA: Alpine plants are
one group expected to be highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change
Palaeo context
The Earth has experienced a constantly changing
climate in the time since plants first evolved. In
comparison to the present day, this history has seen
Earth as cooler, warmer, drier and wetter, and CO2
concentrations have been both higher and lower [4] .
These changes have been reflected by constantly
shifting vegetation, for example forest communities
dominating most areas in interglacial periods, and
herbaceous communities dominating during glacial
periods [5] . It is likely that past climatic changes
have been a major driver of the processes of
speciation and extinction.
Modern Context
There is significant current interest and research
focus on the phenomenon of recent anthropogenic
climate changes, or 'Global Warming’. Focus is on
identifying the current impacts of climate change on
British Rainforest: An ecosystem known to have significantly
biodiversity, and predicting these effects into the
contracted in area over recent geological time as a result of climatic
changes. future.
Effect of climate change on plant biodiversity 376
Effects of CO5
Increases in atmospheric O3 concentration for
affect how plants photosynthesise, resulting in
increases in plant water use efficiency, enhanced
photosynthetic capacity and increased growth [6]
. Increased CO2 has been implicated in
‘vegetation thickening’ which affects plant
community structure and function [7] .
Depending on environment, there are differential
responses to elevated atmospheric CO2 between
major ‘functional types’ of plant, such as C3 and
C4 plants, or more or less woody species; which
has the potential among other things to alter Recent increases in atmospheric CO2.
competition between these groups [8] . Increased
CO2 can also lead to increased Carbon : Nitrogen ratios in the leaves of plants or in other aspects of leaf chemistry,
possibly changing herbivore nutrition [9] .
Effects of temperature
Effects of water
General effects
Precipitation trends in the United States, from the Direct impacts of climate change
period 1901-2005. In some areas rainfall has increased
in the last century, while some areas have dried.
Changes in distributions
If climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation change in
a region beyond the tolerance of a species phenotypic plasticity,
then distribution changes of the species may be inevitable [11] .
There is already strong evidence that plant species are shifting
their ranges in altitude and latitude as a response to changing
regional climates [12] [13] .
Predicting the extinction risk of plant species is not easy however. Estimations from particular periods of rapid
climatic change in the past have shown relatively little species extinction in some regions, for example [17] .
Knowledge of how species may adapt or persist in the face of rapid change is still relatively limited.
Changes in the suitability of a habitat for a species drive distributional changes by not only changing the area that a
species can physiologically tolerate, but how effectively it can compete with other plants within this area. Changes in
community composition are therefore also an expected product of climate change.
Effect of climate change on plant biodiversity 378
Improvement of models is an active area of research, with new models attempting to take factors such as life-history
traits of species or processes such as migration into account when predicting distribution changes; though possible
trade-offs between regional accuracy and generality are recognised [21] .
Climate change is also predicted to interact with other drivers of biodiversity change such as habitat destruction and
fragmentation, or the introduction of foreign species. These threats may possibly act in synergy to increase extinction
risk from that seen in periods of rapid climate change in the past [10] .
References
[1] Sala OE, Chapin FS, Armesto JJ, et al. (March 2000). "Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 1883" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/
pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=10710299). Science 287 (5459): 1770–4. doi:10.1126/science.287.5459.1770. PMID 10710299. .
[2] Duraiappah, Anantha K.; World Resources Institute (2006). Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Ecosystems And Human-well
Being—biodiversity Synthesis (http:/ / www. millenniumassessment. org/ proxy/ document. aspx?source=database&
TableName=Documents& IdField=DocumentID& Id=356& ContentField=Document& ContentTypeField=ContentType& TitleField=Title&
FileName=MA+ General+ Synthesis+ -+ Final+ Draft. pdf& Log=True). Washington, D.C: World Resources Institute. ISBN 1-56973-588-3. .
[3] Pressey RL, Cabeza M, Watts ME, Cowling RM, Wilson KA (November 2007). "Conservation planning in a changing world" (http:/ /
linkinghub. elsevier. com/ retrieve/ pii/ S0169-5347(07)00280-7). Trends Ecol. Evol. (Amst.) 22 (11): 583–92. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2007.10.001.
PMID 17981360. .
[4] Dunlop, M., & Brown, P.R. (2008) Implications of climate change for Australia’s National Reserve System: A preliminary assessment.
Report to the Department of Climate Change, February 2008. Department of Climate Change, Canberra, Australia
[5] Huntley, B. (2005). "North temperate responses". In Hannah, Lee Jay; Lovejoy, Thomas E.. Climate Change and Biodiversity. New Haven,
Conn: Yale University Press. pp. 109–24. ISBN 0-300-11980-1.
[6] Steffen, W. & Canadell, P. (2005). ‘Carbon Dioxide Fertilisation and Climate Change Policy.’ 33 pp. Australian Greenhouse Office,
Department of Environment and Heritage: Canberra
[7] Gifford RM, Howden M (2001). "Vegetation thickening in an ecological perspective: significance to national greenhouse gas inventories".
Environmental Science & Policy 4: 59–72. doi:10.1016/S1462-9011(00)00109-X.
[8] Dukes JS, Mooney HA (April 1999). "Does global change increase the success of biological invaders?" (http:/ / linkinghub. elsevier. com/
retrieve/ pii/ S0169534798015547). Trends Ecol. Evol. (Amst.) 14 (4): 135–9. doi:10.1016/S0169-5347(98)01554-7. PMID 10322518. .
[9] Gleadow RM, et al. (1998). "Enhanced CO2 alters the relationship between photosynthesis and defence in cyanogenic Eucalyptus cladocalyx
F. Muell.". Plant Cell Environ. 21: 12–22. doi:10.1046/j.1365-3040.1998.00258.x.
[10] Mackey, B. (2007). "Climate change, connectivity and biodiversity conservation". In Taylor M., Figgis P.. Protected Areas: buffering nature
against climate change. Proceedings of a WWF and IUCN World Commission on Protected Areas symposium, Canberra, 18–19 June 2007.
Sydney: WWF-Australia. pp. 90–6.
[11] Lynch M., Lande R. (1993). "Evolution and extinction in response to environmental change". In Huey, Raymond B.; Kareiva, Peter M.;
Kingsolver, Joel G.. Biotic Interactions and Global Change. Sunderland, Mass: Sinauer Associates. pp. 234–50. ISBN 0-87893-430-8.
[12] Parmesan C, Yohe G (January 2003). "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems". Nature 421
(6918): 37–42. doi:10.1038/nature01286. PMID 12511946.
[13] Walther GR, Post E, Convey P, et al. (March 2002). "Ecological responses to recent climate change". Nature 416 (6879): 389–95.
doi:10.1038/416389a. PMID 11919621.
[14] Davis MB, Shaw RG (April 2001). "Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/
pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=11326089). Science 292 (5517): 673–9. doi:10.1126/science.292.5517.673. PMID 11326089. .
[15] Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, et al. (January 2004). "Extinction risk from climate change". Nature 427 (6970): 145–8.
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[16] Jump A, Penuelas J (2005). "Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change". Ecol. Lett. 8: 1010–20.
doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00796.x.
[17] Botkin DB, et al. (2007). "Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity". BioScience 57 (3): 227–36. doi:10.1641/B570306.
[18] Fitter AH, Fitter RS (May 2002). "Rapid changes in flowering time in British plants" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/
pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=12040195). Science 296 (5573): 1689–91. doi:10.1126/science.1071617. PMID 12040195. .
[19] Willis CG, Ruhfel B, Primack RB, Miller-Rushing AJ, Davis CC (November 2008). "Phylogenetic patterns of species loss in Thoreau's
woods are driven by climate change" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=18955707). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.
105 (44): 17029–33. doi:10.1073/pnas.0806446105. PMC 2573948. PMID 18955707. .
[20] Solomon, S., et al. (2007). Technical Summary. In ‘Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to
the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’. (Eds. S. Solomon, et al.) pp. 19-91, Cambridge University
Press: Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
[21] Thuiller W, et al. (2008). "Predicting global change impacts on plant species’ distributions: Future challenges". Perspect. Plant Ecol. Evol.
Syst. 9: 137–52. doi:10.1016/j.ppees.2007.09.004.
Effect of climate change on plant biodiversity 380
Further reading
• Thomas Lovejoy; Lee Hannah (2006). Climate Change and Biodiversity. TERI Press. ISBN 817993084X.
• Tim Flannery (2006). The Weather Makers: How Man Is Changing the Climate and What It Means for Life on
Earth. Grove/Atlantic Press. ISBN 0802142923.
External links
• (2008) Government report on the effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and
biodiversity in the United States. (http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-3/final-report/default.
htm)
• (2003) Summary report from an international conference on Global Climate Change and Biodiversity. (http://
www.jncc.gov.uk/page-2977#download)
• (2008) Discussion on the future of modeling climate change impacts on plant species distributions. (http://www.
will.chez-alice.fr/pdf/ThuillerPPEES2008.pdf)
• (2005) The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, including discussion of the effects of climate change on
biodiversity (http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx)
• Global Change Biology - a scientific journal with articles relating to the interaction between global changes such
as climate, and biological systems (http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1354-1013)
• (2011) After the birds vanish, the plants are next to go (http://www.newscientist.com/article/
dn20083-after-the-birds-vanish-plants-are-next-to-go.html) - New Scientist
Overview
The majority of adverse effects of climate change are most experienced by poor and low-income communities
around the world. Those in poverty have a higher chance of experiencing the ill-effects climate change more
dramatically due to increased exposure and vulnerability [1] . Vulnerability represents the degree to which a system is
susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change including climate variability and extremes.
Also, a lack of capacity available for coping with environmental change is experienced in lower-income
communities [2] . According to the United Nations Development Programme, developing countries suffer 99% of the
casualties attributable to climate change [3] . Along with this imbalance of casualties, there is an issue of climate
ethics, which is the idea that the least 50 developed countries of the world account for an imbalanced 1%
contribution to the worldwide emissions of greenhouse gasses which are theorized to be attributable to global
warming [3] . Climate change raises a number of particularly challenging ethical issues about distributive justice, in
particular concerning how to fairly share the benefits and burdens of climate change policy options. Many of the
policy tools often employed to solve environmental problems such as cost-benefit analysis usually do not adequately
deal with these issues because they often ignore questions of just distribution and the effects on human rights.
Climate change and poverty 381
Poverty impacts
The cycle of poverty exacerbates the potential negative impacts of climate change. This phenomenon is defined
when poor families become trapped in poverty for at least three generations and when they have limited or no access
to resources and are disadvantaged in means of breaking the cycle [4] . While in rich countries, coping with climate
change has largely been a matter of adjusting thermostats, dealing with longer, hotter summers, and observing
seasonal shifts; for those in poverty, weather-related disasters, a bad harvest, or even a family member falling ill can
provide crippling economic shocks [5] . Besides these economic shocks, the widespread famine, drought, and
potential humanistic shocks could effect the entire nation. High levels of poverty and low levels of human
development limit capacity of poor households to manage climate risks. With limited access to formal insurance, low
incomes and meagre assets, poor households have to deal with climate-related shocks under highly constrained
conditions [6] .
Reversing development
Climate change is globally encompassing and can reverse development in some areas in the following ways.
Agricultural production and food security- There has been considerable research comparing the interrelated
processes of climate change and agriculture [7] Climate change will affect rainfall, temperature, and water
availability for agriculture in vulnerable areas [6] . Climate change could affect agriculture in several ways including
productivity, agricultural practices, environmental effects, and distribution of rural space [8] . Additional number
affected by malnutrition could rise to 600 million by 2080. Climate change could worsen the prevalence of hunger
through direct negative effects on production and indirect impacts on purchasing powers [6]
• Water insecurity - Of the 3 billion growth in population projected worldwide by the midcentury, the majority will
be born in countries already experiencing water shortages [9] . As the overall climate of the earth warms, changes
in the nature of global rainfall, evaporation, snow, and runoff flows will be affected [10] . Safe water sources are
essential for survival within a community. Manifestations of the projected water crisis include inadequate access
to safe drinking water for about 884 million people as well as inadequate access to water for sanitation and water
disposal for 2.5 billion people [11] [12]
• Rising sea levels and exposure to climate disasters- Sea levels could rise rapidly with accelerated ice sheet
disintegration. Global temperature increases of 3-4 degrees C could result in 330 million people being
permanently or temporarily displaced through flooding [8] . Warming seas will also fuel more intense tropical
storms.[8] .
• Ecosystems and biodiversity - Climate change is already transforming Ecological systems. Around one-half of the
world’s coral reef systems have suffered bleaching as a result of warming seas. In addition, the direct human
pressures that might be experienced include overfishing which could lead to resource depletion, nutrient and
chemical pollution and poor land use practices such as deforestation and dredging. Also, climate change may
increase the amount of arable land in high-latitude regions by reduction of the amount of frozen lands. A 2005
study reports that temperature in siberia has increased three degree Celsius in average since 1960, which is
reportedly more than in other areas of the world [13] .
• Human health - direct effect is increase in temperature-related illnesses and deaths related to prolonged heat
waves and humidity. Climate change could also change the geographic range of vector-borne, specifically
mosquito-borne disease such as malaria dengue fever exposing new populations to the disease [6] . Because a
changing climate affects the essential ingredients of maintaining good health: clean air and water, sufficient food
and adequate shelter, the effects could be widespread and pervasive. The report of the WHO Commission on
Social Determinants of Health points out that disadvantaged communities are likely to shoulder a disproportionate
share of the burden of climate change because of their increased exposure and vulnerability to health threats [14] .
Over 90 percent of malaria and diarrhea deaths are borne by children aged 5 years or younger, mostly in
developing countries.[3] . Other severely affected population groups include women, the elderly and people living
Climate change and poverty 382
in small island developing states and other coastal regions, mega-cities or mountainous areas [3] .
Security impacts
The concept of Human security and the effects that climate change may have on it will become increasingly
important as the changes become more apparent [15] . Some effects are already evident and will become very clear in
the human and climatic short run (2007–2020). They will increase and others will manifest themselves in the
medium term (2021–2050); whilst in the long run (2051–2100), they will all be active and interacting strongly with
other major trends.[15] . There is the potential for the end of the petroleum economy for many producing and
consuming nations, possible financial and economic crisis, a larger population of humans, and a much more
urbanized humanity – far in excess of the 50% now living in small to very large cities [16] . All these processes will
be accompanied by redistribution of population nationally and internationally [16] . Such redistributions typically
have significant gender dimensions; for example, extreme event impacts can lead to male out migration in search of
work, culminating in an increase in women-headed households – a group often considered particularly vulnerable
[17]
. Indeed, the effects of climate change on impoverished women and children is crucial in that women and
children in particular, have unequal human capabilities [18]
Infrastructure impacts
The potential effects of climate change and the security of infrastructure will have the most direct effect on the
poverty cycle. Areas of infrastructure effects will include water systems, housing and settlements, transport
networks, utilities, and industry [19] . Infrastructure designers can contribute in three areas for improving living
environment for the poor, in building design, in settlement planning and design as well as in urban planning [19] . The
National Research Council has identified five climate changes of particular importance to infrastructure and factors
that should be taken into consideration when designing future structures. These factors include: increases in very hot
days and heat waves, increases in Artic temperatures, rising sea levels, increases in intense precipitation events, and
increases in hurricane intensity [20] . Accordingly, transportation decision makers continually make short- and
long-term investment decisions that affect how infrastructure will respond to climate change [20] .
Mitigation efforts
Climate change mitigation is the action to decrease the intensity of radiative forcing in order to reduce the potential
effects of global warming. Most often, mitigation efforts involve reductions in the concentrations of greenhouse
gases, either by reducing their sourcesor by increasing their sinks [21] .
Adaptation efforts
Adaptation to global warming involves actions to tolerate the effects of global warming. Collaborative research from
the Institute of Development Studies draws links between adaptation and poverty to help develop an agenda for
pro-poor adaptation that can inform climate-resilient poverty reduction. Adaptation to climate change will be
"ineffective and inequitable if it fails to learn and build upon an understanding of the multidimensional and
differentiated nature of poverty and vulnerability" [22] . Poorer countries tend to be more seriously affected by
climate change, yet have reduced assets and capacities with which to adapt [22] . This has led to more activities to
integrate adaptation within development and poverty reduction programs. The rise of adaptation as a development
issue has been influenced by concerns around minimizing threats to progress on poverty reduction, notably the
Millennium Development Goals, and by the injustice of impacts that are felt hardest by those who have done least to
contribute to the problem, framing adaptation as an equity and human rights issue [22] .
Climate change and poverty 383
Notes
[1] Richards 2003; Rayner & Malone 2001
[2] Smit et al. 1999
[3] UNDP 2007-2008
[4] Marger 2008
[5] UNDP 1988
[6] IPCC 2001
[7] IPCC 2007
[8] Schneider et al. 2007
[9] UNDP 2006, 143
[10] Miller 1997
[11] WHO/UNICEF 2008, 25
[12] WHO/UNICEF JMP 2008
[13] Sample 2005
[14] WHO 2004
[15] Liotta 2006
[16] Simon 2007
[17] Delaney and Shrader 2000
[18] UNICEF 2007, 47
[19] Jabeen and Mallick 2009
[20] O’Leary 2008
[21] Molina et al 2009
[22] IDS 2008
[23] La Trobe 2002
References
• Delaney and Elizabeth Shrader (2000) "Gender and Post-Disaster Reconstruction: The Case of Hurricane Mitch in
Honduras and Nicaragua", LCSPG/LAC Gender Team, The World Bank, Decision Review Draft, page 24 http://
www.gdnonline.org/resources/reviewdraft.doc .
• IPCC. 2001. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. Online at www.ipcc.ch (Accessed October
23, 2010)
• IPCC. 2007. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Accessed on
November 2, 2010).
• IDS Bulletin. Poverty in a Changing Climate IDS Bulletin 39(4):2, September 2008
• Jabeen, Huraera and Fuad H. Mallick. “Urban Poverty, climate change and built environment.” The Daily Star.
January 24, 2009.
• La Trobe, S. 2002. Climate Change and Poverty. http://www.tearfund.org/webdocs/Website/Campaigning/
Policy%20and%20research/Climate%20change%20and%20poverty%20paper.pdf (Accessed October 23, 2010)
• Liotta, Peter. "Climate Change and Human Security: The Use of Scenarios" Paper presented at the annual meeting
of the International Studies Association, Town & Country Resort and Convention Center, San Diego, California,
USA, Mar 22, 2006. 2009-05-25 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p100873_index.html>
Climate change and poverty 384
• Marger (2008). Examples of these disadvantages working in a circular process would be: economic decline, low
personal income, no funds for school, which leads to lack of education. The lack of education results in
unemployment and lastly low national productivity. ‘‘Social Inequality: Patterns and Processes.’’ McGraw Hill
publishing. 4th edition. ISBN 0073528153
• Molina, M.; Zaelke, D.; Sarmac, K. M.; Andersen, S. O.; Ramanathane, V.; Kaniaruf, D. (2009). "Tipping
Elements in Earth Systems Special Feature: Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and
other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions". Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences 106 (49): 20616. doi:10.1073/pnas.0902568106. PMID 19822751. PMC 2791591. http://www.pnas.
org/content/early/2009/10/19/0902568106.full.pdf.edit
• Miller, Kathleen. 1997. Climate Variability, Climate Change and Western Water. Report to the Western Water
Policy Review Advisory Commission, NTIS, Springfield, VA. http://www.isse.ucar.edu/water_climate/
impacts.html (Accessed on November, 2, 2010).
• O’Leary, Maureen. March 21, 2008. Climate Change on Infrastructure. http://scitizen.com/climate-change/
climate-change-on-infrastructure_a-13-1788.html (Accessed on November 2, 2010).
• Rayner S., and E.L. Malone. 2001. Climate Change, Poverty, and Intragernerational Equity: The National Level.
International Journal of Global Environment Issues. 1:2, 175-202.
• Sample, Ian. “Warming hits ‘tipping point’” The Guardian. August 11, 2005. (Accessed on November 12, 2010).
• Schneider, S.H. et al. (2007). "Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. In: Climate Change
2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M.L. Parry et al. (eds.)"]. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. pp. 779–810. Retrieved 2009-05-20.
• Simon, David. (2007), “Cities and Global Environmental Change: Exploring the Links,” The Geographical
Journal 173, 1 (March): 75-79 & see chapters 3 & 4 of Sir Nicholas Stern et al. (2007) Stern Review on the
Economics of Climate Change. London: UK, Department of the Treasury
http:/ / www. hm-treasury. gov. uk/ independent_reviews/ stern_review_economics_climate_change/
stern_review_report.cfm
• Smit, B., I. Burton, R.J.T. Klein, and R. Street. 1999.: The Science of Adaption: A framework for Assessment.
Mitigation and Adaption Stretegies for Global Change, 4, 199-213.
• United Nations Development Programme. “Human Development Report 2007/2008: The 21st Century Climate
Challenge.” United Nations Development Programme, http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/
hdr_20072008_en_complete.pdf (Accessed October 23, 2010).
• United Nations Development Programme. 1998. “Unequal Human Impacts of Environmental Damage,” in Human
Development Report 1998. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press.
• United Nations Development Programme. 2006. “Human Development Report: Beyond Scarcity: Power, Poverty,
and the Global Water Crisis.” New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006. (pp. 25–199).
• UNICEF. 2007. Climate Change and Children. New York: United Nations Children’s Fund.
• Progress in Drinking-water and Sanitation: special focus on sanitation. WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring
Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation. July 17, 2008. p. 25. http://www.unicef.org/media/files/
Joint_Monitoring_Report_-_17_July_2008.pdf.
• Updated Numbers: WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation Updated
Report. 2008. http://www.unicef.org/media/media_44093.html
• http://www.ied.ethz.ch/pub/pdf/IED_WP01_Schubert.pdf
• http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2010/11/02/
000158349_20101102135244/Rendered/PDF/WPS5468.pdf
Climate change and poverty 385
• World Health Organization. 2004. The Global Burden Disease: 2004 Update. http://who.int/healthinfo/
global_burden_disease/2004_report_update/en/index.htm
Definition
The phrase "runaway climate change" is used to describe a theory in
which positive feedbacks result in rapid climate change.[7] It is most
commonly used in mass media and popular science literature and by
environmental organizations,[8] [9] is occasionally used in the social
sciences.[10] It is particularly used in the popular media and by
environmentalists with reference to concerns about rapid global
warming.[7] [8] Some astronomers use the similar expression runaway
greenhouse effect to describe a situation where the climate deviates
catastrophically and permanently from the original state - as happened
on Venus.[11] [12]
The record-breaking decline of Arctic Sea ice has
been reported as a "tipping point", but it could
[6]
Related terms also be due to a natural weather fluctuation
Feedbacks
The core of the concept of runaway climate change is the idea of a large positive feedback within the climate system.
When a change in global temperature causes an event to occur which itself changes global temperature, this is
referred to as a feedback effect. If this effect acts in the same direction as the original temperature change, it is a
destabilising positive feedback (e.g. warming causing more warming); and if in the opposite direction, it is a
stabilising negative feedback (e.g. warming causing a cooling effect). If a sufficiently strong net positive feedback
occurs, it is said that a climate tipping point has been passed and the temperature will continue to change until the
changed conditions result in negative feedbacks that restabilise the climate.
An example of a negative feedback is that radiation leaving the Earth increases in proportion to the fourth power of
temperature, in accordance with the Stefan-Boltzmann law. This feedback always operates and is proportional to the
forth power of temperature. Therefore, while it may by overridden by positive feedbacks for comparatively small
temperature changes it will dominate for larger temperature changes. An example of a positive feedback is the
Runaway climate change 386
ice-albedo feedback, in which increasing temperature causes ice to melt, which increases the amount of heat that
Earth absorbs. This feedback only operates in a restricted range of temperatures (those for which ice exists, and does
not cover the whole surface; once all the ice has melted, the feedback ceases to operate).
Climate feedback effects can be from:
• The same cause as the forcing (e.g. rising methane levels causing more methane to be released)
• Another greenhouse gas (e.g. CO2 causing methane release)
• On other variables (e.g. ice-albedo feedback)
Without climate feedbacks, a doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration would result in a global average
temperature increase of around 1.2°C. Water vapor amount and clouds are probably the most important global
climate feedbacks. Historical information and global climate models indicate a climate sensitivity of 1.5 to 4.5°C,
with a best estimate of 3°C. This is an amplification of the carbon dioxide forcing by a factor of 2.5. Some studies
suggest a lower climate sensitivity, but other studies indicate a sensitivity above this range. Partly because of the
difficulty in modeling the cloud feedback, the true climate sensitivity remains uncertain.[14]
Examples
There are known examples of the Earth's climate producing a large response to small forcings; most obviously CO2
feedback effect is believed to be part of the transition between glacial and interglacial periods, with the Milankovitch
cycle providing the initial trigger[15] . This is generally not considered to be a runaway climate change. Another
example would be Dansgaard-Oeschger events.
Potentially unstable methane deposits exists in permafrost regions, which are expected to retreat as a result of global
warming[16] , and also clathrates, with the clathrate effect probably taking millennia to fully act.[17] The potential
role of methane from clathrates in near-future runaway scenarios is not certain, as studies[18] show a slow release of
methane, which may not be regarded as 'runaway' by all commentators. The clathrate gun runaway effect may be
used to describe more rapid methane releases. Methane in the atmosphere has a high global warming potential, but
breaks down relatively quickly to form CO2, which is also a greenhouse gas. Therefore, slow methane release will
have the long-term effect of adding CO2 to the atmosphere.
In order to model clathrates and other reservoirs of greenhouse gases and their precursors, global climate models
would have to be 'coupled' to a carbon cycle model. Some current global climate models do not include such
modelling of methane deposits.
A 2006 book chapter by Cox et al. considers the possibility of a future runaway climate feedback due to changes in
the land carbon cycle:[19]
Here we use a simple land carbon balance model to analyse the conditions required for a land
sink-to-source transition, and address the question; could the land carbon cycle lead to a runaway
climate feedback? [...] The simple land carbon balance model has effective parameters representing the
sensitivities of climate and photosynthesis to CO2, and the sensitivities of soil respiration and
photosynthesis to temperature. This model is used to show that (a) a carbon sink-to-source transition is
inevitable beyond some finite critical CO2 concentration provided a few simple conditions are satisfied,
(b) the value of the critical CO2 concentration is poorly known due to uncertainties in land carbon cycle
parameters and especially in the climate sensitivity to CO2, and (c) that a true runaway land
carbon-climate feedback (or linear instability) in the future is unlikely given that the land masses are
currently acting as a carbon sink.
Runaway climate change 387
Current risk
The scientific consensus in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report[20] is that "Anthropogenic warming could lead to
some effects that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change." Note
however that this statement is about situations weaker than "runaway change".
Estimates of the size of the total carbon reservoir in Arctic permafrost and clathrates vary widely. It is suggested that
at least 900 gigatonnes of carbon in permafrost exists worldwide.[21] Furthermore, there are believed to be another
400 gigatonnes of carbon in methane clathrates in permafrost regions [22] with 10,000 to 11,000 gigatonnes
worldwide.[22] This is large enough that if 10% of the stored methane were released, it would have an effect
equivalent to a factor of 10 increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.[23] Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with
a higher global warming potential than CO2.
Worries about the release of this methane and carbon dioxide is linked to arctic shrinkage. Recent years have seen
record low Arctic sea ice. It has been suggested that rapid melting of the sea ice may initiate a feedback loop that
rapidly melts arctic permafrost.[24] [25] Methane clathrates on the sea-floor have also been predicted to destabilise,
but much more slowly.[22]
A release of methane from clathrates, however, is believed to be slow and chronic rather than catastrophic and that
21st-century effects of such a release are therefore likely to be 'significant but not catastrophic'.[23] It is further noted
that 'much methane from dissociated gas hydrate may never reach the atmosphere',[26] as it can be dissolved into the
ocean and be broken down biologically.[26] Other research[27] demonstrates that a release to the atmosphere can
occur during large releases. These sources suggest that the clathrate gun effect alone will not be sufficient to cause
'catastrophic'[23] climate change within a human lifetime.
James E. Hansen has suggested that the Earth could undergo a transition to a Venus-like state if fossil-fuel use
continues until reserves are exhausted.[28]
Paleoclimatology
Events that could be described as runaway climate change may have occurred in the past.
Clathrate gun
The clathrate gun hypothesis suggests runaway warming due to a massive release of methane gas from methane
clathrates on the seafloor. It has been speculated that the Permian-Triassic extinction event[29] and the
Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum[30] were caused by massive clathrate release.
Snowball Earth
Geological evidence shows that ice-albedo feedback caused sea ice advance to near the equator at several points in
Earth history.[31] Modeling work shows that such an event would indeed be a result of a runaway ice-albedo
effect,[32] and that such a condition could be escaped via the accumulation of CO2 from volcanic outgassing.[33]
Runaway climate change 388
References
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“Eustatic” change (as opposed to local change) results in an alteration to the global sea levels, such as changes in the
volume of water in the world oceans or changes in the volume of an ocean basin.
Long-period tides
Evaporation and precipitation (may also follow long-term pattern) Days to weeks
Ocean surface topography (changes in water density and currents) Days to weeks Up to 1 m
Seasonal variations
Seiches
Earthquakes
fringes of the ice caps could be significant, as could be sub-ice-shelf melting in Antarctica.
• Climate changes during the 20th century are estimated from modelling studies to have led to contributions of
between –0.2 and 0.0 mm/yr from Antarctica (the results of increasing precipitation) and 0.0 to 0.1 mm/yr from
Greenland (from changes in both precipitation and runoff).
• Estimates suggest that Greenland and Antarctica have contributed 0.0 to 0.5 mm/yr over the 20th century as a
result of long-term adjustment to the end of the last ice age.
The current rise in sea level observed from tide gauges, of about 1.8 mm/yr, is within the estimate range from the
combination of factors above[17] but active research continues in this field. The terrestrial storage term, thought to be
highly uncertain, is no longer positive, and shown to be quite large.
Since 1992, a number of satellites have been recording the change in sea level;[18] [19] they display an acceleration in
the rate of sea level change, but they have not been operating for long enough to work out whether this is a real
signal, or just an artefact of short-term variation.
However, for the past 6,000 years (many centuries before the first known written records), the world's sea level has
been gradually approaching the level we see today. During the previous interglacial about 120,000 years ago, sea
level was for a short time about 6 m higher than today, as evidenced by wave-cut notches along cliffs in the
Bahamas. There are also Pleistocene coral reefs left stranded about 3 metres above today's sea level along the
southwestern coastline of West Caicos Island in the West Indies. These once-submerged reefs and nearby
paleo-beach deposits are silent testimony that sea level spent enough time at that higher level to allow the reefs to
grow (exactly where this extra sea water came from—Antarctica or Greenland—has not yet been determined).
Similar evidence of geologically recent sea level positions is abundant around the world.
Current sea level rise 393
Estimates
See IPCC TAR (Third Assessment Report), figure 11.4 for a graph of sea level changes over the past 140,000
years.[20]
• The 2007 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report suggested that sea levels would rise by
between 190 mm (7.5 inches) and 590 mm by the end of this century.[21]
• Sea level rise estimates from satellite altimetry since 1993 are in the range of 2.9-3.4 mm/yr.[3] [4] [5] [6] [7]
• Church and White (2006) report an acceleration of SLR since 1870.[2] This is a revision since 2001, when the
TAR stated that measurements have detected no significant acceleration in the recent rate of sea level rise.
• Based on tide gauge data, the rate of global average sea level rise during the 20th century lies in the range 0.8 to
3.3 mm/yr, with an average rate of 1.8 mm/yr.[22]
• Recent studies of Roman wells in Caesarea and of Roman piscinae in Italy indicate that sea level stayed fairly
constant from a few hundred years AD to a few hundred years ago.
• Based on geological data, global average sea level may have risen at an average rate of about 0.5 mm/yr over the
last 6,000 years and at an average rate of 0.1 to 0.2 mm/yr over the last 3,000 years.
• Since the Last Glacial Maximum about 20,000 years ago, sea level has risen by over 120 m (averaging 6 mm/yr)
as a result of melting of major ice sheets. A rapid rise took place between 15,000 and 6,000 years ago at an
average rate of 10 mm/yr which accounted for 90 m of the rise; thus in the period since 20,000 years BP
(excluding the rapid rise from 15-6 kyr BP) the average rate was 3 mm/yr.
• A significant event was Meltwater pulse 1A (mwp-1A), when sea level rose approximately 20 m over a 500 year
period about 14,200 years ago. This is a rate of about 40 mm/yr. Recent studies suggest the primary source was
meltwater from the Antarctic, perhaps causing the south-to-north cold pulse marked by the Southern Hemisphere
Huelmo/Mascardi Cold Reversal, which preceded the Northern Hemisphere Younger Dryas
• Relative sea level rise at specific locations is often 1–2 mm/yr greater or less than the global average. Along the
US mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, for example, sea level is rising approximately 3 mm/yr
One study shows there has been no acceleration in sea level rise in
U.S. tide gauge records during the 20th century.[24]
Glaciers [39]
10 to 230 mm
[40]
(or 50 to 110 mm)
Ongoing contributions from ice sheets in response to past climate change 0 to 55 mm
The sum of these components indicates a rate of eustatic sea level rise (corresponding to a change in ocean volume)
from 1910 to 1990 ranging from –0.8 to 2.2 mm/yr, with a central value of 0.7 mm/yr. The upper bound is close to
the observational upper bound (2.0 mm/yr), but the central value is less than the observational lower bound
(1.0 mm/yr), i.e., the sum of components is biased low compared to the observational estimates. The sum of
components indicates an acceleration of only 0.2 (mm/yr)/century, with a range from –1.1 to +0.7 (mm/yr)/century,
consistent with observational finding of no acceleration in sea level rise during the 20th century. The estimated rate
of sea-level rise from anthropogenic climate change from 1910 to 1990 (from modeling studies of thermal
expansion, glaciers and ice sheets) ranges from 0.3 to 0.8 mm/yr. It is very likely that 20th century warming has
contributed significantly to the observed sea-level rise, through thermal expansion of sea water and widespread loss
of land ice.[39]
A common perception is that the rate of sea-level rise should have accelerated during the latter half of the 20th
century, but tide gauge data for the 20th century show no significant acceleration. Estimates obtained are based on
AOGCMs for the terms directly related to anthropogenic climate change in the 20th century, i.e., thermal expansion,
ice sheets, glaciers and ice caps... The total computed rise indicates an acceleration of only 0.2 (mm/yr)/century, with
a range from -1.1 to +0.7 (mm/yr)/century, consistent with observational finding of no acceleration in sea-level rise
during the 20th century.[41] The sum of terms not related to recent climate change is -1.1 to +0.9 mm/yr (i.e.,
excluding thermal expansion, glaciers and ice caps, and changes in the ice sheets due to 20th century climate
change). This range is less than the observational lower bound of sea level rise. Hence it is very likely that these
terms alone are an insufficient explanation, implying that 20th century climate change has made a contribution to
20th century sea level rise.[17] Recent figures of human, terrestrial impoundment came too late for the 3rd Report,
and would revise levels upward for much of the 20th century.
change, are significantly below this range. Estimates of the volume increase due to ocean warming give a rate of
about 0.5 mm/yr and the rate due to mass increase, primarily from the melting of continental ice, is thought to be
even smaller. One study confirmed tide gauge data is correct, and concluded there must be a continental source of
1.4 mm/yr of fresh water. (Miller 2004)
• From (Douglas 2002): "In the last dozen years, published values of 20th century GSL rise have ranged from 1.0 to
2.4 mm/yr. In its Third Assessment Report, the IPCC discusses this lack of consensus at length and is careful not
to present a best estimate of 20th century GSL rise. By design, the panel presents a snapshot of published analysis
over the previous decade or so and interprets the broad range of estimates as reflecting the uncertainty of our
knowledge of GSL rise. We disagree with the IPCC interpretation. In our view, values much below 2 mm/yr are
inconsistent with regional observations of sea-level rise and with the continuing physical response of Earth to the
most recent episode of deglaciation."
• The strong 1997-1998 El Niño caused regional and global sea level variations, including a temporary global
increase of perhaps 20 mm. The IPCC TAR's examination of satellite trends says the major 1997/98 El
Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event could bias the above estimates of sea-level rise and also indicate the
difficulty of separating long-term trends from climatic variability.[41]
Glacier contribution
It is well known that glaciers are subject to surges in their rate of movement with consequent melting when they
reach lower altitudes and/or the sea. The contributors to Annals of Glaciology [42], Volume 36 [43] (2003) discussed
this phenomenon extensively and it appears that slow advance and rapid retreat have persisted throughout the mid to
late Holocene in nearly all of Alaska's glaciers. Historical reports of surge occurrences in Iceland's glaciers go back
several centuries. Thus rapid retreat can have several other causes than CO2 increase in the atmosphere.
The results from Dyurgerov show a sharp increase in the contribution of mountain and subpolar glaciers to sea level
rise since 1996 (0.5 mm/yr) to 1998 (2 mm/yr) with an average of approx. 0.35 mm/yr since 1960.[44]
Of interest also is Arendt et al.,[45] who estimate the contribution of Alaskan glaciers of 0.14±0.04 mm/yr between
the mid 1950s to the mid 1990s increasing to 0.27 mm/yr in the middle and late 1990s.
Greenland contribution
Krabill et al.[46] estimate a net contribution from Greenland to be at least 0.13 mm/yr in the 1990s. Joughin et al.[47]
have measured a doubling of the speed of Jakobshavn Isbræ between 1997 and 2003. This is Greenland's largest
outlet glacier; it drains 6.5% of the ice sheet, and is thought to be responsible for increasing the rate of sea level rise
by about 0.06 millimetres per year, or roughly 4% of the 20th century rate of sea level increase.[48] In 2004, Rignot
et al.[49] estimated a contribution of 0.04±0.01 mm/yr to sea level rise from southeast Greenland.
Rignot and Kanagaratnam[50] produced a comprehensive study and map of the outlet glaciers and basins of
Greenland. They found widespread glacial acceleration below 66 N in 1996 which spread to 70 N by 2005; and that
the ice sheet loss rate in that decade increased from 90 to 200 cubic km/yr; this corresponds to an extra 0.25 to
0.55 mm/yr of sea level rise.
In July 2005 it was reported[51] that the Kangerdlugssuaq glacier, on Greenland's east coast, was moving towards the
sea three times faster than a decade earlier. Kangerdlugssuaq is around 1,000 m thick, 7.2 km (4.5 miles) wide, and
drains about 4% of the ice from the Greenland ice sheet. Measurements of Kangerdlugssuaq in 1988 and 1996
showed it moving at between 5 and 6 km/yr (3.1 to 3.7 miles/yr) (in 2005 it was moving at 14 km/yr [8.7 miles/yr]).
According to the 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, climate models project that local warming in Greenland
will exceed 3° Celsius during this century. Also, ice sheet models project that such a warming would initiate the
long-term melting of the ice sheet, leading to a complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet over several millennia,
resulting in a global sea level rise of about seven metres.[52]
Current sea level rise 397
Antarctic contribution
On the Antarctic continent itself, the large volume of ice present stores around 70 % of the world's fresh water.[53]
This ice sheet is constantly gaining ice from snowfall and losing ice through outflow to the sea. West Antarctica is
currently experiencing a net outflow of glacial ice, which will increase global sea level over time. A review of the
scientific studies looking at data from 1992 to 2006 suggested a net loss of around 50 Gigatonnes of ice per year was
a reasonable estimate (around 0.14 mm of sea level rise),[54] although significant acceleration of outflow glaciers in
the Amundsen Sea Embayment could have more than doubled this figure for the year 2006.[55]
East Antarctica is a cold region with a ground base above sea level and occupies most of the continent. This area is
dominated by small accumulations of snowfall which becomes ice and thus eventually seaward glacial flows. The
mass balance of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet as a whole is thought to be slightly positive (lowering sea level) or near
to balance.[54] [55] However, increased ice outflow has been suggested in some regions.[55] [56]
Polar ice
The sea level will rise above its current level if more polar ice melts. However, compared to the heights of the ice
ages, today there are very few continental ice sheets remaining to be melted. It is estimated that Antarctica, if fully
melted, would contribute more than 60 metres of sea level rise, and Greenland would contribute more than 7 metres.
Small glaciers and ice caps on the margins of Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula might contribute about 0.5
metres. While the latter figure is much smaller than for Antarctica or Greenland it could occur relatively quickly
(within the coming century) whereas melting of Greenland would be slow (perhaps 1,500 years to fully deglaciate at
the fastest likely rate) and Antarctica even slower.[15] However, this calculation does not account for the possibility
that as meltwater flows under and lubricates the larger ice sheets, they could begin to move much more rapidly
towards the sea.[57] [58]
In 2002, Rignot and Thomas[59] found that the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets were losing mass, while the
East Antarctic ice sheet was probably in balance (although they could not determine the sign of the mass balance for
The East Antarctic ice sheet). Kwok and Comiso (J. Climate, v15, 487-501, 2002) also discovered that temperature
and pressure anomalies around West Antarctica and on the other side of the Antarctic Peninsula correlate with recent
Southern Oscillation events.
In 2004 Rignot et al.[49] estimated a contribution of 0.04±0.01 mm/yr to sea level rise from South East Greenland. In
the same year, Thomas et al.[60] found evidence of an accelerated contribution to sea level rise from West Antarctica.
The data showed that the Amundsen Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet was discharging 250 cubic
kilometres of ice every year, which was 60% more than precipitation accumulation in the catchment areas. This
Current sea level rise 398
alone was sufficient to raise sea level at 0.24 mm/yr. Further, thinning rates for the glaciers studied in 2002-2003 had
increased over the values measured in the early 1990s. The bedrock underlying the glaciers was found to be
hundreds of metres deeper than previously known, indicating exit routes for ice from further inland in the Byrd
Subpolar Basin. Thus the West Antarctic ice sheet may not be as stable as has been supposed.
In 2005 it was reported that during 1992-2003, East Antarctica thickened at an average rate of about 18 mm/yr while
West Antarctica showed an overall thinning of 9 mm/yr. associated with increased precipitation. A gain of this
magnitude is enough to slow sea-level rise by 0.12±0.02 mm/yr.[61]
Island nations
IPCC assessments suggest that deltas and small island states are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise caused by
both thermal expansion and ocean volume. Relative sea level rise (mostly caused by subsidence) is currently causing
substantial loss of lands in some deltas.[64] Sea level changes have not yet been conclusively proven to have directly
resulted in environmental, humanitarian, or economic losses to small island states, but the IPCC and other bodies
have found this a serious risk scenario in coming decades.[65]
Many media reports have focused the island nations of the Pacific, notably the Polynesian islands of Tuvalu, which
based on more severe flooding events in recent years, was thought to be "sinking" due to sea level rise.[66] A
scientific review in 2000 reported that based on University of Hawaii gauge data, Tuvalu had experienced a
negligible increase in sea-level of 0.07 mm a year over the past two decades, and that ENSO had been a larger factor
in Tuvalu's higher tides in recent years.[67] A subsequent study by John Hunter from the University of Tasmania,
however, adjusted for ENSO effects and the movement of the gauge (which was thought to be sinking). Hunter
concluded that Tuvalu had been experiencing sea-level rise of about 1.2 mm per year.[67] [68] The recent more
frequent flooding in Tuvalu may also be due to an erosional loss of land during and following the actions of 1997
cyclones Gavin, Hina, and Keli.[69]
Numerous options have been proposed that would assist island nations to adapt to rising sea level.[70]
Current sea level rise 399
Current rates of sea level rise from satellite altimetry have been estimated in the range of 2.9-3.4 ± 0.4-0.6 mm per
year for 1993-2010.[3] [4] [5] [6] [7] This exceeds those from tide gauges. It is unclear whether this represents an
increase over the last decades; variability; true differences between satellites and tide gauges; or problems with
satellite calibration.[41] Knowing the current altitude of a satellite which can measure sea level to a precision of about
20 millimetres (e.g. the Topex/Poseidon system) is primarily complicated by orbital decay and the difference
between the assumed orbit and the earth geoid .[71] This problem is partially corrected by regular re-calibration of
satellite altimeters from land stations whose height from MSL is known by surveying. Over water, the height is
calibrated from tide gauge data which is needed to correct for tides and atmospheric effects on sea level.
Notes
[1] Bruce C. Douglas (1997). "Global Sea Rise: A Redetermination". Surveys in Geophysics 18: 279–292. doi:10.1023/A:1006544227856.
[2] Church, John; White, Neil (January 6, 2006). "A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/
2006/ 2005GL024826. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 33: L01602. Bibcode 2006GeoRL..3301602C. doi:10.1029/2005GL024826.
L01602. . Retrieved 2010-05-17 pdf is here (http:/ / www. pol. ac. uk/ psmsl/ author_archive/ church_white/
GRL_Church_White_2006_024826. pdf)
[3] Nerem, R. S. et al. (2010). "Estimating Mean Sea Level Change from the TOPEX and Jason Altimeter Missions". Marine Geodesy 33:
435–446. doi:10.1080/01490419.2010.491031.
[4] "CU Global Mean Sea Level Estimate" (http:/ / sealevel. colorado. edu). University of Colorado. . Retrieved 2011-02-10.
[5] "AVISO Global Mean Sea Level Estimate" (http:/ / www. aviso. oceanobs. com/ en/ news/ ocean-indicators/ mean-sea-level/ index. html).
CNES/CLS. . Retrieved 2011-02-10.
[6] "CSIRO Global Mean Sea Level Estimate" (http:/ / www. cmar. csiro. au/ sealevel/ sl_hist_last_15. html). CSIRO. . Retrieved 2011-02-10.
[7] "NOAA Global Sea Level Estimate" (http:/ / ibis. grdl. noaa. gov/ SAT/ SeaLevelRise/ LSA_SLR_timeseries_global. php). NOAA. .
Retrieved 2011-02-10.
[8] Ablain, M.; A. Cazenave, G. Valladeau, S. Guinehut (17 June 2009). "A new assessment of the error budget of global mean sea level rate
estimated by satellite altimetry over 1993–2008" (http:/ / www. ocean-sci. net/ 5/ 193/ 2009/ os-5-193-2009. pdf). Ocean Science 5: 193–201.
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External links
• "Climate change threatening the Southern Ocean" (http://csiro.au/multimedia/
Climate-change-threat-to-Southern-Ocean.html).
• Sea Level Rise:Understanding the past - Improving projections for the future (http://www.cmar.csiro.au/
sealevel)
• Providing new homes for climate exiles (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=950329) Sujatha
Byravan and Sudhir Chella Rajan, 2006
• Sea Level Rise (http://www.futureocean.org/english/research-areas/marine-resources-and-risks/
sea-level-rise-and-coasts-at-risk/facts/) - Cluster of Excellence "Future Ocean", Kiel
• New perspectives for the future of the Maldives (http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/
PDF_Papers/MornerEtAl2004.pdf) Nils-Axel Mörner, Michael Tooley, Göran Possnert, 2004
• "Physical Agents of Land Loss: Relative Sea Level" (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2003/of03-337/global.html).
An Overview of Coastal Land Loss: With Emphasis on the Southeastern United States. Retrieved 14 February
2005.
• Changes in the Earth's shorelines during the past 20 kyr caused by the deglaciation of the Late Pleistocene ice
sheets (http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/palaeoshoreline_webpage/HTML/HOME.htm), from the Permanent
Service for Mean Sea Level
• Indigenous Aboriginal Australian Perspective on Sea Level Changes: Video (http://indigenouspeoplesissues.
com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&
id=385:indigenous-australian-aboriginal-perspectives-on-climate-change-cape-york-australia&
catid=68:videos-and-movies&Itemid=96)
• Includes picture of sea level for past 20 kyr based on barbados coral record (http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/
palaeoshoreline_webpage/HTML/Science.htm)
• Global sea level change: Determination and interpretation (http://www.agu.org/revgeophys/dougla01/
dougla01.html)
• Sea level rise FAQ (http://www.radix.net/~bobg/faqs/sea.level.faq.html) (1997)
• The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) (http://www.gloss-sealevel.org/)
• The GLOSS Station Handbook (http://www.bodc.ac.uk/data/information_and_inventories/gloss_handbook/)
• "Sea Level Rise Reports" (http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/sealevelrise). US Environmental Protection
Agency website.
• The Sinking of Tuvalu (http://www.thesinkingoftuvalu.com/)
• Center for the Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets - Maps, Animations, GIS Layers (http://www.cresis.ku.edu/
research/data/sea_level_rise/index.html)
• Tides and Sea Level Rise Model (http://www.interactive-earth.com/visualizations/sea_level_fluctuation.htm)
• "University of Colorado at Boulder Sea Level Change" (http://sealevel.colorado.edu/).
Maps that show a Rise in Sea Levels
• Sea Level Rise of up to 14m - meltdown of Greenlandic ice shield (http://flood.firetree.net/)
Current sea level rise 404
• World Maps for a sea level rise in 60m - meltdown of the antarctic ice shield (http://www.elstel.com/
SeaLevelRise.html#Maps)
• Hazard map showing variable sea level rise and earthquake impacts (http://archive.cyark.org/hazard-map),
developed by CyArk to demonstrate potential impact of climate change (and earthquakes) on World Heritage
Sites
• Sea Levels Online: National Ocean Service (CO-OPS) (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.
shtml), displays local sea level rise and sea level trends via a map interface
• Sea Level Rise Planning Maps (http://plan.risingsea.net) County and state scale maps showing which lands
below 5 meters are likely and unlikely to be protected from a rising sea, according to study funded by US
Environmental Protection Agency.
Season creep
In phenology, season creep is a neologism that refers to observed changes in the timing of the seasons,[1] [2]
especially earlier indications of spring[3] widely observed in temperate areas across the Northern Hemisphere.[4] [5]
Phenological records analyzed by climate scientists have shown significant temporal trends in the observed time of
seasonal events,[6] [7] from the end of the 20th century and continuing into the 21st century.[5] [8] In Europe, season
creep has been associated with the arrival of spring moving up by approximately one week in a recent 30 year
period.[9] [10] Other studies have put the rate of season creep measured by plant phenology in the range of 2–3 days
per decade advancement in spring, and 0.3–1.6 days per decade delay in autumn, over the past 30–80 years.[11]
Observable changes in nature related to season creep include birds laying their eggs earlier and buds appearing on
some trees in late winter.[12] In addition to advanced budding, flowering trees have been blooming earlier, for
example the culturally important cherry blossoms in Japan,[13] [14] and Washington, D.C.[15] [16] Northern hardwood
forests have been trending toward leafing out sooner, and retaining their green canopies longer.[17] The agricultural
growing season has also expanded by 10–20 days over the last few decades.[18]
The effects of season creep have been noted by non-scientists as well, including gardeners who have advanced their
spring planting times,[19] and experimented with plantings of less hardy warmer climate varieties of non-native
plants.[20] While summer growing seasons are expanding, winters are getting warmer and shorter, resulting in
reduced winter ice cover on bodies of water,[21] earlier ice-out,[22] earlier melt water flows,[23] and earlier spring lake
level peaks.[24] Some spring events, or "phenophases", have become intermittent or unobservable; for example,
bodies of water that once froze regularly most winters now freeze less frequently,[8] [25] [26] and formerly migratory
birds are now seen year-round in some areas.[27]
cooling mostly in the south, indicating that the temperature variation with latitude is decreasing there.[31] This study
also confirmed that season creep was correlated with warming, but the effect is non-linear—phenophases advanced
less with greater warming, and retarded more with greater cooling.[31]
Shorter winters and longer growing seasons may appear to be a benefit to society from global warming, but the
effects of advanced phenophases may also have serious consequences for human populations. Modeling of snowmelt
predicted that warming of 3° to 5°C in the Western United States could cause snowmelt-driven runoff to occur as
much as two months earlier, with profound effects on hydroelectricity, land use, agriculture, and water
management.[32] Since 1980, earlier snowmelt and associated warming has also been associated with an increase in
length and severity of the wildfire season there.[33]
Etymology
Season creep was included in the 9th edition of the Collins English Dictionary published in London June 4, 2007.[34]
[35]
The term was popularized in the media after the report titled "Season Creep: How Global Warming Is Already
Affecting The World Around Us" was published by the American environmental organization Clear the Air on
March 21, 2006.[36] In the "Season Creep" report, Jonathan Banks, Policy Director for Clear the Air, introduced the
term as follows:
While to some, an early arrival of spring may sound good, an imbalance in the ecosystem can wreak havoc.
Natural processes like flowers blooming, birds nesting, insects emerging, and ice melting are triggered in large
part by temperature. As temperatures increase globally, the delicately balanced system begins to fall into
ecological disarray. We call this season creep.[36]
Other uses
The term "season creep" has been applied in other contexts as well:
• In professional sports, season creep refers to lengthening of the playing season, especially the extension of the
MLB season to 162 games.[37]
• In college athletics, season creep refers to longer periods athletes spend training in their sport.[38]
• In American politics, campaign season creep refers to the need for candidates to start fund raising activities
sooner.[39]
• In retailing, Christmas creep refers to the earlier appearance of Christmas-themed merchandising, extending the
holiday shopping season.[2] [40]
References
[1] Gabay, Jonathan (2006). "23. So What's New?". Gabay's Copywriters' Compendium (Second Edition: The Definitive Professional Writers
Guide ed.). Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann. pp. 701. ISBN 0-7506-8320-1. "Season creep n. Earlier spring weather and other gradual
seasonal shifts caused by global climate change."
[2] Maxwell, Kerry (2006-09-18). "Macmillan English Dictionary Word Of The Week Archive - "Christmas creep"" (http:/ / www.
macmillandictionary. com/ New-Words/ 060918-Christmas-creep. htm). New Words. Macmillan Publishers. . Retrieved 2007-12-26. "...season
creep, earlier spring weather and seasonal shifts caused by global climate change"
[3] Maxwell, Kerry (2007-12). "A review of 2007 in twelve words" (http:/ / www. macmillandictionaries. com/ MED-Magazine/ December2007/
48-New-Word. htm#3). MED Magazine. Macmillan English Dictionaries. . Retrieved 2007-12-23. "It’s a classic case of the newly identified
phenomenon of season creep, where Winters are warmer and Spring arrives earlier."
[4] Schwartz, M. D.; Ahas, R.; Aasa, A. (2006). "Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere". Global Change Biology 12
(2): 343–351. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01097.x. "SI first leaf dates, measuring change in the start of ‘early spring’ (roughly the time of
shrub budburst and lawn first greening), are getting earlier in nearly all parts of the Northern Hemisphere. The average rate of change over the
1955–2002 period is approximately -1.2 days per decade.".
[5] Cleland, E.E.; Chiariello, N.R.; Loarie, S.R.; Mooney, H.A.; Field, C.B. (2006). "Diverse responses of phenology to global changes in a
grassland ecosystem". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103 (37): 13740–4. doi:10.1073/pnas.0600815103. PMC 1560087.
PMID 16954189. "Shifting plant phenology (i.e., timing of flowering and other developmental events) in recent decades establishes that
Season creep 406
species and ecosystems are already responding to global environmental change. Earlier flowering and an extended period of active plant
growth across much of the northern hemisphere have been interpreted as responses to warming.".
[6] McFedries, Paul (2006-08). "Changing Climate, Changing Language" (http:/ / www. spectrum. ieee. org/ aug06/ 4234). IEEE Spectrum. .
Retrieved 2007-12-23. "Did spring seem to arrive a bit earlier than usual this year in your part of the world? That wouldn’t be surprising,
because we seem to be undergoing season creep: earlier spring weather and other gradual seasonal shifts, particularly those caused by global
climate change."
[7] Sayre, Carolyn (2006-12-17). "The Year in Buzzwords 2006" (http:/ / www. time. com/ time/ magazine/ article/ 0,9171,1570839,00. html).
TIME. . Retrieved 2007-12-26. "SEASON CREEP n. Spring seemed to come early this year--and summer lasted a bit longer. What's to blame?
Most scientists say global warming."
[8] Skinner, Victor (2007-02-17). "Area temperatures expected to rise back to 'normal'" (http:/ / archives. record-eagle. com/ 2007/ feb/
17weather. htm). Traverse City Record-Eagle. . Retrieved 2007-12-27. "...the west arm of Grand Traverse Bay ... has only frozen over five
times since 1987,.... Between 1851 and 1980, [it] froze at least seven years per decade, ... the bay-freezing trend shows "a long-term gradual
decline with a significant decline in the past 25 to 35 years.”"
[9] Stutz, Bruce (2006-04-21). "Suddenly spring" (http:/ / www. highbeam. com/ doc/ 1P1-122344415. html). The Record (Bergen County, NJ). .
Retrieved 2007-12-23. "In fact, due to global warming, spring across the Northern Hemisphere arrives a week or more earlier than it did 30
years ago, a phenomenon starting to be known as "season creep.""
[10] "Climate changes shift springtime : A Europe-wide study has provided "conclusive proof" that the seasons are changing, with spring arriving
earlier each year, researchers say." (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 5279390. stm). Science/Nature. BBC NEWS. 2006-08-25.
. Retrieved 2007-12-28. "Spring was beginning on average six to eight days earlier than it did 30 years ago, the researchers said."
[11] Sherry, R.A.; Zhou, X.; Gu, S.; Arnone Iii, J.A.; Schimel, D.S.; Verburg, P.S.; Wallace, L.L.; Luo, Y. (2007). "Divergence of reproductive
phenology under climate warming" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 104/ 1/ 198). Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences 104 (1): 198–202. doi:10.1073/pnas.0605642104. PMC 1713188. PMID 17182748. . Retrieved 2007-12-29. "Phenology is a
sensitive biosphere indicator of climate change. Long-term surface data and remote sensing measurements indicate that plant phenology has
been advanced by 2–3 days in spring and delayed by 0.3–1.6 days in autumn per decade in the past 30–80 years, resulting in extension of the
growing season.".
[12] "Man bags at ten paces? Just look it up" (http:/ / news. scotsman. com/ ViewArticle. aspx?articleid=3291680& bad=678471). Scotsman.com
News. 2007-06-04. . Retrieved 2007-12-23. "While the full impact of global warming is still to be experienced, many scientists are warning
that it is responsible for earlier springs leading to longer summers."
[13] Miller-rushing, A.J.; Katsuki, T.; Primack, R.B.; Ishii, Y.; Lee, S.D.; Higuchi, H. (2007). "Impact of global warming on a group of related
species and their hybrids: cherry tree (Rosaceae) flowering at Mt. Takao, Japan" (http:/ / www. amjbot. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 94/ 9/
1470). American Journal of Botany 94 (9): 1470. doi:10.3732/ajb.94.9.1470. . Retrieved 2007-12-29. "We examined a 25-yr record
(1981–2005) of flowering times for 97 trees, representing 17 species and hybrids of cherry (Cerasus sp. or Prunus sp.) grown at Mt. Takao, in
Tokyo, Japan. The cherry trees flowered earlier over time, by an average of 5.5 d over the 25-yr study.".
[14] Cleland, E.E.; Chuine, I.; Menzel, A.; Mooney, H.A.; Schwartz, M.D. (2007). "Shifting plant phenology in response to global change"
(http:/ / www. aseanenvironment. info/ Abstract/ 41015195. pdf). Trends in Ecology & Evolution 22 (7): 357–365.
doi:10.1016/j.tree.2007.04.003. PMID 17478009. . Retrieved 2007-12-29. "The longest and best known phenological records come from the
Far East and Europe, including ... the 1300+-year Kyoto cherry blossom time series [37]... These longterm historical records can serve as
proxies for temperature where thermometer data are unavailable.".
[15] >Abu-asab, M.S.; Peterson, P.M.; Shetler, S.G.; Orli, S.S. (2001). "Earlier plant flowering in spring as a response to global warming in the
Washington, DC, area" (http:/ / si-pddr. si. edu/ dspace/ bitstream/ 10088/ 3371/ 1/ Abu-Asab_et_al_2001_early_flowering. pdf). Biodiversity
and Conservation 10 (4): 597–612. doi:10.1023/A:1016667125469. . Retrieved 2009-06-27.
[16] Peterson, Paul M.; Stanwyn G. Shetler, Mones S. Abu-Asab, Sylvia S. Orli (2005). "Chapter 8 Global Climate Change: The Spring
Temperate Flora". In Krupnick, Gary A; W. John Kress. Plant conservation: a natural history approach. Chicago: University of Chicago
Press. pp. 192. ISBN 0-226-45513-0. "Finally, there is the Cherry Blossom Festival in Washington, DC, each spring. On average the two
principal species, Prunus serrulata (Kwanzan cherry and other varieties) and P. X yedoensis ( Yoshino cherry), bloom six and nine days
earlier, respectively, than they did in 1970."
[17] Richardson, A.D.; Bailey, A.S.; Denny, E.G.; Martin, C.W.; O'Keefe, J. (2006). "Phenology of a northern hardwood forest canopy". Global
Change Biology 12 (7): 1174–1188. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01164.x. "...significant trends (P≤0.05) towards an earlier spring (e.g.
sugar maple, rate of change=0.18 days earlier/yr), consistent with other studies documenting measurable climate change effects on the onset of
spring in both North America and Europe. Our results also suggest that green canopy duration has increased by about 10 days (e.g. sugar
maple, rate of change=0.21 days longer/yr) over the period of study.".
[18] Linderholm, H.W. (2006). "Growing season changes in the last century" (http:/ / research. eeescience. utoledo. edu/ lees/ papers_PDF/
Linderholm_2006_AFM. pdf). Agricultural and forest meteorology 137 (1-2): 1–14. doi:10.1016/j.physletb.2003.10.071. . Retrieved
2009-06-27. "The evidence points to a lengthening of the growing season of ca. 10–20 days in the last few decades, where an earlier onset of
the start is most prominent. This extension of the growing season has been associated with recent global warming.".
[19] Smith, Virginia A. (2007-04-07). "Out on a limb: Gardeners excited by the early warmth — call it "season creep" - are experimenting with
earlier planting and new varieties." (http:/ / www. accessmylibrary. com/ coms2/ summary_0286-14687823_ITM). The Philadelphia Inquirer.
. Retrieved 2007-12-23. "...earlier springs — an idea known as "season creep" — may or may not be related to long-term warming trends. Yet
the reality of year-to-year weather weirdness recently, coupled with the ever-present impulse to outsmart Mother Nature, has prompted more
Season creep 407
[34] Topping , Alexandra (2007-06-04). "'Hoodies', 'size zero', 'man flu', make it into the dictionary" (http:/ / english. people. com. cn/ 200706/
05/ eng20070605_380949. html). The Guardian. . Retrieved 2007-12-23. "A preoccupation with environmental issues, a favourite topic of
[British Conservative Party leader David] Cameron's, is also reflected in new phrases such as "carbon footprint", "carbon offsetting" and
"season creep", used to describe the changing length of the seasons thought to be caused by climate change."
[35] "'Season creep', 'BBQ stopper' appear in dictionary pages" (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ news/ newsitems/ 200706/ s1941218. htm). ABC News
Online. 2007-06-04. . Retrieved 2007-12-23. ""Hoodies", "season creep" and "barbecue stopper" are among hundreds of new words and
phrases included in an updated version of an English dictionary."
[36] "Season creep" (http:/ / www. wordspy. com/ words/ seasoncreep. asp). Word Spy. . Retrieved 2007-12-23. "Earliest Citation:… Jonathan
Banks, 'Season Creep: How Global Warming Is Already Affecting The World Around Us,' National Environment Trust, March 21, 2006"
[37] "What Has Longer Season Brought To Baseball Besides Snow Warnings?" (http:/ / www. highbeam. com/ doc/ 1G1-64641349. html).
Seattle Post-Intelligencer (Seattle, WA). 1997-10-23. . Retrieved 2007-12-26. "Call it season creep. First came the shift to 162 games, a
change that made it, among other things, impossible to compare Roger Maris' 61 home runs to Babe Ruth's 60."
[38] "Virginian-Pilot Archives" (http:/ / nl. newsbank. com/ nl-search/ we/ Archives?p_product=VP& p_theme=vp& p_action=search&
p_text_direct-0=1197101945A1ECD0& p_field_direct-0=document_id& p_perpage=10& p_sort=YMD_date:D& s_trackval=GooglePM).
The Virginian-Pilot. Pilot Media. 2007-05-29. . Retrieved 2007-12-26. "'Season creep' has expanded the time an intercollegiate athlete must
devote to his or her specialty. No sport should be year-round or nearly so."
[39] Sellnow, Greg (2007-04-07). ", Greg Sellnow column: I'm just sayin'." (http:/ / www. accessmylibrary. com/ coms2/
summary_0286-30260656_ITM). Post-Bulletin, Rochester, Minn.. . Retrieved 2007-12-26. "And it is money, of course, that is responsible for
campaign season creep. If you don't raise money early -- gobs and gobs of it -- you'll find yourself on the fundraising super highway with
roller marks over your body, where your opponent's war chest plowed over you."
[40] Siewers, Alf (1987-11-25). "He's well-suited to enjoying life of Santa" (http:/ / nl. newsbank. com/ nl-search/ we/
Archives?p_product=CSTB& p_theme=cstb& p_action=search& p_maxdocs=200& p_topdoc=1& p_text_direct-0=0EB36D9911BB108A&
p_field_direct-0=document_id& p_perpage=10& p_sort=YMD_date:D& s_trackval=GooglePM). Chicago Sun-Times. . Retrieved
2007-12-26. "And so does the culture, with a commercializing of himself that Santa deplores even as he has watched the holiday season creep
back to Labor Day."
and "a variety of in situ, satellite and reanalysis data" to set the context for the phenomenon. This might have a lot to
do with the observations of variations in cold water chimney behaviour.[10]
In January 2010, the Gulf Stream briefly connected with the West Greenland Current after fluctuating for a few
weeks due to an extreme negative phase of the Arctic oscillation, temporarily diverting it west of Greenland.[11] [12]
References
[1] Lund DC, Lynch-Stieglitz J, Curry WB (November 2006). "Gulf Stream density structure and transport during the past millennium". Nature
444 (7119): 601–4. doi:10.1038/nature05277. PMID 17136090.
[2] Seager R (July/August 2006). "The Source of Europe's Mild Climate" (http:/ / www. americanscientist. org/ template/ AssetDetail/ assetid/
51963/ page/ 1). American Scientist. .
[3] Rhines, P.B. and Häkkinen, S. Is the Oceanic Heat Transport in the North Atlantic Irrelevant to the Climate in Europe? (http:/ / www.
realclimate. org/ Rhines_hakkinen_2003. pdf) ASOF Newsletter, September 2003
[4] Turrell, B. The Big Chill (http:/ / www. bbc. co. uk/ science/ horizon/ 2003/ bigchilltrans. shtml) Transcript of discussion on BBC 2, 13
November 2003
[5] Thermohaline circulation changes (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 357. htm). From IPCC Working Group 1, chapter 9.
[6] Vellinga, M. and Wood, R.A. Global climatic impacts of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (http:/ / www. ocean. washington.
edu/ people/ faculty/ luanne/ classes/ pcc586/ papers/ vellingawood_thc2002. pdf). Climatic Change 54: 251 267, 2002.
[7] Satellites record weakening North Atlantic Current (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/ centers/ goddard/ news/ topstory/ 2004/ 0415gyre. html). NASA,
15 April 2004.
[8] Jonathan Leake, Britain faces big chill as ocean current slows (http:/ / www. timesonline. co. uk/ article/ 0,,2087-1602579,00. html), The
Sunday Times, 8 May 2005.
[9] Gulf Stream slowdown? (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php?p=159) RealClimate.org, 26 May 2005.
[10] Våge, Kjetil; Pickart, Robert S.; Thierry, Virginie; Reverdin, Gilles; Lee, Craig M.; Petrie, Brian; Agnew, Tom A.; Wong, Amy et al.
(2009). "Surprising return of deep convection to the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean in winter 2007–2008". Nature Geoscience 2: 67–72.
doi:10.1038/ngeo382.
[11] FishOutofWater, Diaries (6 January 2010). "Freak Current Takes Gulf Stream to Greenland" (http:/ / www. dailykos. com/ story/ 2010/ 1/ 6/
822520/ -Freak-Current-Takes-Gulf-Stream-to-Greenland). Daily Kos. . Retrieved 11 January 2010.
[12] FishOutofWater, Diaries (30 December 2009). "Warm Atlantic Water Rapidly Replacing Arctic Sea Ice" (http:/ / www. dailykos. com/
story/ 2009/ 12/ 30/ 820607/ -Warm-Atlantic-Water-Rapidly-Replacing-Arctic-Sea-Ice-). Daily Kos. . Retrieved 11 January 2010.
[13] F. Pearce. Failing ocean current raises fears of mini ice age. (http:/ / www. newscientist. com/ article. ns?id=dn8398) NewScientist, 30
November 2005
[14] Hátún H, Sandø AB, Drange H, Hansen B, Valdimarsson H (September 2005). "Influence of the Atlantic subpolar gyre on the thermohaline
circulation" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=16166513). Science 309 (5742): 1841–4.
doi:10.1126/science.1114777. PMID 16166513. . [ Unravel extensive changes in the North Atlantic Ocean—Increased temperature and
salinity in the Nordic Seas (http:/ / www. bjerknes. uib. no/ pages. asp?id=169& kat=2& lang=2) Lay summary] – Bjerknes Centre for Climate
Research.
[15] Gavin Schmidt and Michael Mann. Decrease in Atlantic circulation? (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php?p=225) RealClimate.org, 30
Nov 2005.
[16] Bryden HL, Longworth HR, Cunningham SA (December 2005). "Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25° N"
(http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v438/ n7068/ abs/ nature04385. html). Nature 438 (7068): 655–7. doi:10.1038/nature04385.
PMID 16319889. .
[17] Quadfasel D (December 2005). "Oceanography: The Atlantic heat conveyor slows" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v438/
n7068/ abs/ 438565a. html). Nature 438 (7068): 565–6. doi:10.1038/438565a. PMID 16319866. .
[18] Schiermeier, Quirin (2007). "Climate change: A sea change" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v439/ n7074/ full/ 439256a. html).
Nature 439 (7074): 256–60. doi:10.1038/439256a. PMID 16421539. . (subscription required); see also "Atlantic circulation change summary"
(http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php?p=187). RealClimate.org. 19 Jan 2006. .
[19] Schiermeier, Quirin (2007). "Ocean circulation noisy, not stalling". Nature 448 (7156): 844–5. doi:10.1038/448844b. PMID 17713489.
External links
• Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, Global Business Network - "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its
Implications for United States National Security" (http://www.environmentaldefense.org/documents/
3566_AbruptClimateChange.pdf) (Environmental Defense Fund)
• W. S. Broecker from Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory - What If the Conveyor Were to Shut Down?
Reflections on a Possible Outcome of the Great Global Experiment. (ftp://rock.geosociety.org/pub/
GSAToday/gt9901.pdf)
• The notion that the Gulf Stream is responsible for keeping Europe anomalously warm turns out to be a myth
(http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/pub/2006/4/the-source-of-europes-mild-climate/1)
• Assessing the Risk of a Collapse of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, Michael E. Schlesinger et al. (http://
www.stabilisation2005.com/Schlesingerm_Thermohaline.pdf)
Kyoto Protocol 412
Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to
the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC or FCCC), aimed at
fighting global warming. The
UNFCCC is an international
environmental treaty with the goal of
achieving the "stabilization of
greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would
Participation in the Kyoto Protocol, as of June 2009,
prevent dangerous anthropogenic Green = Countries that have signed and ratified the treaty
interference with the climate Grey = Countries that have not yet decided
[1]
system." Blue = No intention to ratify at this stage.
Background
The view that human activities are likely responsible for most of the observed increase in global mean temperature
("global warming") since the mid-20th century is an accurate reflection of current scientific thinking (NRC, 2001,
p. 3,[4] 2008, p. 2).[5] Human-induced warming of the climate is expected to continue thoughout the 21st century and
beyond (NRC, 2008, p. 2).
IPCC (2007) produced a range of projections of what the future increase in global mean temperature might be.[6]
Projections spanned a range due to socio-economic uncertainties, e.g., over future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission
levels, and uncertainties with regard to physical science aspects, e.g., the climate sensitivity. For the time period
2090-2099, measured from global mean temperature in the period 1980-1999, the "likely" range (as assessed to have
a greater than 66% probability of being correct, based on expert judgement) across the six SRES "marker" emissions
scenarios was projected as an increase in global mean temperature of 1.1 to 6.4 °C.
The scientific question of what constitutes a "safe" level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has been
asked (NRC, 2001, p. 4). This question cannot be answered directly since it requires value judgements of, for
example, what would be an acceptable risk to human welfare. In general, however, risks increase with both the rate
and magnitude of future climate change.
Objectives
The objective of the Kyoto climate change conference
was to establish a legally binding international
agreement, whereby all the participating nations
commit themselves to tackling the issue of global
warming and greenhouse gas emissions. The target
agreed upon was an average reduction of 5.2% from
1990 levels by the year 2012. According to the treaty,
in 2012, Annex I countries must have fulfilled their
obligations of reduction of greenhouse gases emissions
established for the first commitment period
(2008–2012) (listed in Annex B of the Protocol).
Kyoto is intended to cut global emissions of greenhouse gases.
The Kyoto Protocol's first round commitments are the
first detailed step of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Gupta et al., 2007).[7] The Protocol
establishes a structure of rolling emission reduction commitment periods, with negotiations on second period
commitments that were scheduled to start in 2005 (see Kyoto Protocol#Successor for details) (Grubb and Depledge,
2001, p. 269).[8] The first period emission reduction commitments expire at the end of 2012.
The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a
level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."[1] Even if Annex I Parties
succeed in meeting their first-round commitments, much greater emission reductions will be required in future to
stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations (Grubb and Depledge, 2001, p. 269;[8] IPCC, 2001, p. 122).[9]
The five principal concepts of the Kyoto Protocol are:
• Commitments to the Annex-countries. The heart of the Protocol lies in establishing commitments for the
reduction of greenhouse gases that are legally binding for Annex I countries. Dividing the countries in different
groups is one of the key concepts in making commitments possible, where only the Annex I countries in 1997,
were seen as having the economic capacity to commit themselves and their industry. Making only the few nations
in the Annex 1 group committed to the protocols limitations.
Kyoto Protocol 414
• Implementation. In order to meet the objectives of the Protocol, Annex I countries are required to prepare policies
and measures for the reduction of greenhouse gases in their respective countries. In addition, they are required to
increase the absorption of these gases and utilize all mechanisms available, such as joint implementation, the
clean development mechanism and emissions trading, in order to be rewarded with credits that would allow more
greenhouse gas emissions at home.
• Minimizing Impacts on Developing Countries by establishing an adaptation fund for climate change.
• Accounting, Reporting and Review in order to ensure the integrity of the Protocol.
• Compliance. Establishing a Compliance Committee to enforce compliance with the commitments under the
Protocol.
Flexible mechanisms
The Protocol defines three "flexibility mechanisms" that can be used by Annex I countries in meeting their emission
reduction commitments (Bashmakov et al.., 2001, p. 402).[11] The flexibility mechanisms are International
Emissions Trading (IET), the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and Joint Implementation (JI). IET allows
Annex I countries to "trade" their emissions (Assigned Amount Units, AAUs, or "allowances" for short). For IET,
the economic basis for providing this flexibility is that the marginal cost of emission abatement differs among
countries. Trade could potentially allow the Annex I countries to meet their emission reduction commitments at a
reduced cost. This is because trade allows emissions to be abated first in countries where the costs of abatement are
lowest, thus increasing the efficiency of the Kyoto agreement.
The CDM and JI are called "project-based mechanisms," in that they generate emission reductions from projects.
The difference between IET and the project-based mechanisms is that IET is based on the setting of a quantitative
restriction of emissions, while the CDM and JI are based on the idea of "production" of emission reductions (Toth et
al.., 2001, p. 660).[12] The CDM is designed to encourage production of emission reductions in non-Annex I
countries, while JI encourages production of emission reductions in Annex I countries.
Kyoto Protocol 415
The production of emission reductions generated by the CDM and JI can be used by Annex B countries in meeting
their emission reduction commitments. The emission reductions produced by the CDM and JI are both measured
against a hypothetical baseline of emissions that would have occurred in the absence of a particular emission
reduction project. The emission reductions produced by the CDM are called Certified Emission Reductions (CERs);
reductions produced by JI are called Emission Reduction Units (ERUs). The reductions are called "credits" because
they are emission reductions credited against a hypothetical baseline of emissions.
Joint Implementation
The formal crediting period for Joint Implementation (JI) was aligned with the first commitment period of the Kyoto
Protocol, and did not start until January 2008 (Carbon Trust, 2009, p. 20).[14] In November 2008, only 22 JI projects
had been officially approved and registered. The total projected emission savings from JI by 2012 are about one
tenth that of the CDM. Russia accounts for about two-thirds of these savings, with the remainder divided up roughly
equally between the Ukraine and the EU's New Member States. Emission savings include cuts in methane, HFC, and
N2O emissions.
Emissions
See also Greenhouse gas#Greenhouse gas emissions
Per-capita emissions are a country's total emissions divided by its population (Banuri et al.., 1996, p. 95).[21]
Per-capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in developing
countries (Grubb, 2003, p. 144).[22] This is one reason industrialized countries accepted responsibility for leading
climate change efforts in the Kyoto negotiations. In Kyoto, the countries that took on quantified commitments for the
first period (2008–12) corresponded roughly to those with per-capita emissions in 1990 of two tonnes of carbon or
higher. In 2005, the top-20 emitters comprised 80% of total GHG emissions (PBL, 2010. See also the notes in the
following section on the top-ten emitters in 2005).[23] Countries with a Kyoto target made up 20% of total GHG
emissions.
Another way of measuring GHG emissions is to measure the total emissions that have accumulated in the
atmosphere over time (IEA, 2007, p. 199).[24] Over a long time period, cumulative emissions provide an indication
of a country's total contribution to GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. The International Energy Agency (IEA,
Kyoto Protocol 417
2007, p.201) compared cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions for several countries and regions.[24] Over the time
period 1900-2005, the US accounted for 30% of total cumulative emissions; the EU, 23%; China, 8%; Japan, 4%;
and India, 2%. The rest of the world accounted for 33% of global, cumulative, energy-related CO2 emissions.
Top-ten emitters
What follows is a ranking of the world's top ten emitters of GHGs for 2005 (MNP, 2007).[25] The first figure is the
country's or region's emissions as a percentage of the global total. The second figure is the country's/region's
per-capita emissions, in units of tons of GHG per-capita:
1. China1 – 17%, 5.8
2. United States3 – 16%, 24.1
3. European Union-273 – 11%, 10.6
4. Indonesia2 - 6%, 12.9
5. India – 5%, 2.1
6. Russia3 – 5%, 14.9
7. Brazil – 4%, 10.0
8. Japan3 – 3%, 10.6
9. Canada3 – 2%, 23.2
10. Mexico – 2%, 6.4
Notes
• These values are for the GHG emissions from fossil fuel use and cement production. Calculations are for carbon
dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and gases containing fluorine (the F-gases HFCs, PFCs and
SF6).
• These estimates are subject to large uncertainties regarding CO2 emissions from deforestation; and the per country
emissions of other GHGs (e.g., methane). There are also other large uncertainties which mean that small
differences between countries are not significant. CO2 emissions from the decay of remaining biomass after
biomass burning/deforestation are not included.
• 1 excluding underground fires.
• 2 including an estimate of 2000 million tonnes CO2 from peat fires and decomposition of peat soils after draining.
However, the uncertainty range is very large.
• 3 Industrialised countries: official country data reported to UNFCCC
Financial commitments
The Protocol also reaffirms the principle that developed countries have to pay billions of dollars, and supply
technology to other countries for climate-related studies and projects. The principle was originally agreed in
UNFCCC.
Revisions
The protocol left several issues open to be decided later by the sixth Conference of Parties (COP). COP6 attempted
to resolve these issues at its meeting in the Hague in late 2000, but was unable to reach an agreement due to disputes
between the European Union on the one hand (which favoured a tougher agreement) and the United States, Canada,
Japan and Australia on the other (which wanted the agreement to be less demanding and more flexible).
In 2001, a continuation of the previous meeting (COP6bis) was held in Bonn where the required decisions were
adopted. After some concessions, the supporters of the protocol (led by the European Union) managed to get Japan
and Russia in as well by allowing more use of carbon dioxide sinks.
COP7 was held from 29 October 2001 through 9 November 2001 in Marrakech to establish the final details of the
protocol.
Kyoto Protocol 418
The first Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP1) was held in Montreal from 28 November to 9
December 2005, along with the 11th conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP11). See United Nations
Climate Change Conference.
The 3 December 2007, Australia ratified the protocol during the first day of the COP13 in Bali.
Of the signatories, 36 developed C.G. countries (plus the EU as a party in the European Union)agreed to a 10%
emissions increase for Iceland; but, since the EU's member states each have individual obligations,[26] much larger
increases (up to 27%) are allowed for some of the less developed EU countries (see below Kyoto Protocol#Increase
in greenhouse gas emission since 1990).[27] Reduction limitations expire in 2013.
Enforcement
If the enforcement branch determines that an annex I country is not in compliance with its emissions limitation, then
that country is required to make up the difference plus an additional 30%. In addition, that country will be suspended
from making transfers under an emissions trading program.[28]
Negotiations
Article 4.2 of the UNFCCC commits industrialized countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing emissions (Grubb,
2003, p. 144).[22] The initial aim was for industrialized countries to stabilize their emissions at 1990 levels by the
year 2000. The failure of key industrialized countries to move in this direction was a principal reason why Kyoto
moved to binding commitments.
At the first UNFCCC Conference of the Parties in Berlin, the G77 (a lobbying group that represents 133 developing
countries, of which China is an associate (Dessai, 2001, p. 4))[18] was able to push for a mandate where it was
recognized that (Liverman, 2008, p. 12):[29]
• developed nations had contributed most to the then-current concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere
• developing country emissions per-capita were still relatively low
• and that the share of global emissions from developing countries would grow to meet their development needs.
This mandate was recognized in the Kyoto Protocol in that developing countries were not subject to emission
reduction commitments in the first Kyoto commitment period. However, the large potential for growth in developing
country emissions made negotiations on this issue tense (Grubb, 2003, pp. 145-146). In the final agreement, the
Clean Development Mechanism was designed to limit emissions in developing countries, but in such a way that
developing countries do not bear the costs for limiting emissions. The general assumption was that developing
countries would face quantitative commitments in later commitment periods, and at the same time, developed
countries would meet their first round commitments.
Base year
The choice of the 1990 main base year remains in Kyoto, as it does in the original Framework Convention. The
desire to move to historical emissions was rejected on the basis that good data was not available prior to 1990. The
1990 base year also favoured several powerful interests including the UK, Germany and Russia (Liverman, 2008,
p. 12).[29] This is because the UK and Germany had high CO2 emissions in 1990.
In the UK following 1990, emissions had declined because of a switch from coal to gas ("dash for gas"), which has
lower emissions than coal. This was due to the UK's privatization of coal mining and its switch to natural gas
supported by North sea reserves. Germany benefitted from the 1990 base year because of its reunification between
West and East Germany. East Germany's emissions fell dramatically following the collapse of East German industry
after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Germany could therefore take credit for the resultant decline in emissions.
Japan promoted the idea of flexible baselines, and favoured a base year of 1995 for HFCs. Their HFC emissions had
grown in the early 1990s as a substitute for CFCs banned in the Montreal Protocol (Liverman, 2008, p. 13). Some of
Kyoto Protocol 419
the former Soviet satellites wanted a base year to reflect their highest emissions prior to their industrial collapse.
EIT countries are privileged by being able to choose their base-year nearly freely. However the oldest base-year
accepted is 1986.
Emissions cuts
The G77 wanted strong uniform emission cuts across the developed world of 15% (Liverman, 2008, p. 13).[29]
Countries, such as the US, made suggestions to reduce their responsibility to reduce emissions. These suggestions
included:
• the inclusion of carbon sinks (e.g., by including forests, that absorb CO2 from the atmosphere).
• and having net current emissions as the basis for responsibility, i.e., ignoring historical emissions.
The US originally proposed for the second round of negotiations on Kyoto commitments to follow the negotiations
of the first (Grubb, 2003, p. 148).[22] In the end, negotiations on the second period were set to open no later than
2005. Countries over-achieving in their first period commitments can "bank" their unused allowances for use in the
subsequent period.
The EU initially argued for only three GHGs to be included – CO2, CH4, and N2O – with other gases such as HFCs
regulated separately (Liverman, 2008, p. 13). The EU also wanted to have a "bubble" commitment, whereby it could
make a collective commitment that allowed some EU members to increase their emissions, while others cut theirs.
The most vulnerable nations – the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) – pushed for deep uniform cuts by
developed nations, with the goal of having emissions reduced to the greatest possible extent.
The final days of negotiation of the Protocol saw a clash between the EU and the US and Japan (Grubb, 2003,
p. 149). The EU aimed for flat-rate reductions in the range of 10-15% below 1990 levels, while the US and Japan
supported reductions of 0-5%. Countries that had supported differentiation had different ideas as to how it should be
calculated, and many different indicators were proposed: relating to GDP, energy intensity (energy use per unit of
economic output), etc. According to Grubb (2003, p. 149), the only common theme of these indicators was that each
proposal suited the interests of the country making the proposal.
The final commitments negotiated in the Protocol are the result of last minute political compromises (Liverman,
2008, pp. 13-14). These include an 8% cut from the 1990 base year for the EU, 7% for the US, 6% for Canada and
Japan, no cut for Russia, and an 8% increase for Australia. This sums to an overall cut of 5.2% below 1990 levels.
Since Australia and the US did not ratify the treaty (although Australia has since done), the cut is reduced from 5.2%
to about 2%.
Considering the growth of some economies and the collapse of others since 1990, the range of implicit targets is
much greater (Aldy et al., 2003, p. 7).[30] The US faced a cut of about 30% below "business-as-usual" (BAU)
emissions (i.e., predicted emissions should there be no attempt to limit emissions), while Russia and other economies
in transition faced targets that allowed substantial increases in their emissions above BAU. On the other hand, Grubb
(2003, p. 151) pointed out that the US, having per-capita emissions twice that of most other OECD countries, was
vulnerable to the suggestion that it had huge potential for making reductions. From this viewpoint, the US was
obliged to cut emissions back more than other countries.
Flexibility mechanisms
Negotiations over the flexibility mechanisms included in the Protocol proved controversial (Grubb, 2003, p. 153).[22]
Japan and some EU member states wanted to ensure that any emissions trading would be competitive and
transparent. Their intention was to prevent the US from using its political leverage to gain preferential access to the
likely surplus in Russian emission allowances. The EU was also anxious to prevent the US from avoiding domestic
action to reduce its emissions. Developing countries were concerned that the US would use flexibility to its own
advantage, over the interests of weaker countries.
Kyoto Protocol 420
Compliance
The protocol defines a mechanism of "compliance" as a "monitoring compliance with the commitments and penalties
for non-compliance."[31] According to Grubb (2003, p. 157), the explicit consequences of non-compliance of the
treaty are weak compared to domestic law.[22] Yet, the compliance section of the treaty was highly contested in the
Marrakesh Accords. According to Grubb (2003), Japan made some unsuccessful efforts to "water-down" the
compliance package.
2000 onwards
When George W. Bush was elected US president in 2000, he was asked by US Senator Hagel what his
administration's position was on climate change. Bush replied that he took climate change "very seriously," but that
he opposed the Kyoto treaty, because "it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centers such as
China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy" (Dessai, 2001, p. 5).[18]
Almost all world leaders (e.g., China, Japan, South Africa, Pacific islands) expressed their disappointment over
President Bush's decision not to support the treaty (Dessai, 2001, p. 6).
In order for the Protocol to enter into legal effect, it was required that the Protocol was ratified by 55 Parties
including 55% of 1990 Annex I emissions (Dessai, 2001, p. 3).[18] The US accounted for 36% of emissions in 1990,
and without US ratification, only an EU+Russia+Japan+small party coalition could place the treaty into legal effect.
A deal was reached in the Bonn climate talks (COP-6.5), held in 2001. According to the EU, the Kyoto Protocol had
been saved (Dessai, 2001, p. 8). For the G77/China , the Bonn agreement represented the "triumph of multilateralism
over unilateralism" (Dessai, 2001, p. 8).
Ratification process
The Protocol was adopted by COP 3 on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. It was opened on 16 March 1998 for
signature by parties to UNFCCC.
Article 25 of the Protocol specifies that the Protocol enters into force "on the ninetieth day after the date on which
not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Parties included in Annex I which accounted in total for at
least 55% of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the Annex I countries, have deposited their instruments
of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession."
The EU and its Member States ratified the Protocol in May 2002.[32] Of the two conditions, the "55 parties" clause
was reached on 23 May 2002 when Iceland ratified the Protocol. The ratification by Russia on 18 November 2004
satisfied the "55%" clause and brought the treaty into force, effective 16 February 2005, after the required lapse of
90 days.
As of November 2009, 187 countries and one regional economic organization (the EC) have ratified the agreement,
representing over 63.9% of the 1990 emissions from Annex I countries.[2]
Kyoto Protocol 421
Annex I
In total, Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC (including the
US) managed a cut of 3.3% in GHG emissions between
1990 and 2004 (UNFCCC, 2007, p. 11).[33] Projections
reported by UNFCCC (2007, p. 11) indicated rising
emissions of 4.2% between 1990 and 2010. This
projection assumed that no further mitigation action
would be taken. The reduction in the 1990s was driven
significantly by economic restructuring in the
economies-in-transition (EITs. See the following
section for the list of EITs). Emission reductions in the
EITs had little to do with climate change policy Carbon emissions from various global regions during the period
[14] 1800–2000 AD
(Carbon Trust, 2009, p. 24). Some reductions in
Annex I emissions have occurred due to policy
measures, such as promoting energy efficiency (UNFCCC, 2007, p. 11).
Japan expects to meet its Kyoto target, which includes a 1.6% reduction from CDM projects and a 3.9% reduction
from carbon storage, contributing to a total reduction of 5.5%. In other OECD countries, emissions have increased.
In Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Switzerland, emissions have increased by 25% compared to the base year,
while in Norway, the increase was 9%. In the view of PBL (2009), these countries will only be able to meet their
targets by purchasing sufficient CDM credits or by buying emissions ("hot air") from EIT countries.
Non-KP Parties
Emissions in the US have increased 16% since 1990. According to PBL (2009), the US will not meet its original
Kyoto target of a 6% reduction in emissions.[36]
Non-Annex I
UNFCCC (2005) compiled and synthesized information reported to it by non-Annex I Parties.[38] Most non-Annex I
Parties belonged in the low-income group, with very few classified as middle-income. Most Parties included
information on policies relating to sustainable development. Sustainable development priorities mentioned by
non-Annex I Parties included poverty alleviation and access to basic education and health care (UNFCCC, 2005,
p. 6). Many non-Annex I Parties are making efforts to amend and update their environmental legislation to include
global concerns such as climate change (UNFCCC, 2005, p. 7).
A few Parties, e.g., South Africa and Iran, stated their concern over how efforts to reduce emissions could affect their
economies. The economies of these countries are highly dependent on income generated from the production,
processing, and export of fossil fuels.
Emissions
GHG emissions, excluding land use change and forestry (LUCF), reported by 122 non-Annex I Parties for the year
1994 or the closest year reported, totalled 11.7 billion tonnes (billion = 1,000,000,000) of CO2-eq. CO2 was the
largest proportion of emissions (63%), followed by methane (26%) and nitrous oxide (N2O) (11%).
The energy sector was the largest source of emissions for 70 Parties, whereas for 45 Parties the agriculture sector
was the largest. Per capita emissions (in tonnes of CO2-eq, excluding LUCF) averaged 2.8 tonnes for the 122
non-Annex I Parties.
• The Africa region's aggregate emissions were 1.6 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of 2.4 tonnes.
• The Asia and Pacific region's aggregate emissions were 7.9 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of
2.6 tonnes.
• The Latin America and Caribbean region's aggregate emissions were 2 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of
4.6 tonnes.
• The "other" region includes Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Malta, Republic of Moldova, and the former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Their aggregate emissions were 0.1 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of
5.1 tonnes.
Parties reported a high level of uncertainty in LUCF emissions, but in aggregate, there appeared to only be a small
difference of 1.7% with and without LUCF. With LUCF, emissions were 11.9 billion tonnes, without LUCF, total
aggregate emissions were 11.7 billion tonnes.
Trends
In several large developing countries and fast growing economies (China, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, and
Iran) GHG emissions have increased rapidly (PBL, 2009).[36] For example, emissions in China have risen strongly
over the 1990-2005 period, often by more than 10% year. Emissions per-capita in non-Annex I countries are still, for
the most part, much lower than in industrialized countries. Non-Annex I countries do not have quantitative emission
reduction commitments, but they are committed to mitigation actions. China, for example, has had a national policy
programme to reduce emissions growth, which included the closure of old, less efficient coal-fired power plants.
Kyoto Protocol 423
Cost estimates
Barker et al. (2007, p. 79) assessed the literature on cost estimates for the Kyoto Protocol. [39] Due to non-US
participation in the Kyoto treaty, costs estimates were found to be much lower than those estimated in the previous
IPCC Third Assessment Report. Without US participation, and with full use of the Kyoto flexible mechanisms, costs
were estimated at less than 0.05% of Annex B GDP. This compared to earlier estimates of 0.1-1.1%. Without use of
the flexible mechanisms, costs without US participation were estimated at less than 0.1%. This compared to earlier
estimates of 0.2-2%. These cost estimates were viewed as being based on much evidence and high agreement in the
literature.
Successor
In the non-binding 'Washington Declaration' agreed on 16 February 2007, Heads of governments from Canada,
France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, United Kingdom, the United States, Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South
Africa agreed in principle on the outline of a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. They envisage a global cap-and-trade
system that would apply to both industrialized nations and developing countries, and hoped that this would be in
place by 2009.[52] [53]
Kyoto Protocol 424
On 7 June 2007, leaders at the 33rd G8 summit agreed that the G8 nations would "aim to at least halve global CO2
emissions by 2050". The details enabling this to be achieved would be negotiated by environment ministers within
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in a process that would also include the major
emerging economies.[54]
A round of climate change talks under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) (Vienna Climate Change Talks 2007) concluded in 31 August 2007 with agreement on key
elements for an effective international response to climate change.[55]
A key feature of the talks was a United Nations report that showed how efficient energy use could yield significant
cuts in emissions at low cost.
The talks were meant to set the stage for a major international meeting to be held in Nusa Dua, Bali, which started on
3 December 2007.[56]
The Conference was held in December 2008 in Poznań, Poland. One of the main topics on this meeting was the
discussion of a possible implementation of avoided deforestation also known as Reducing emissions from
deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) into the future Kyoto Protocol.[57]
After the lack of progress leading to a binding commitment or an extension of the Kyoto commitment period in
climate talks at COP 15 in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2009, there were and will be several further rounds of
negotiation COP 16 in Cancun, Mexico in 2010, South Africa in 2011 (COP 17), and in either Qatar or South Korea
in 2012 (COP 18). Because any treaty change will require the ratification of the text by various countries' legislatures
before the end of the commitment period Dec 31, 2012, it is likely that agreements in South Africa or South
Korea/Qatar will be too late to prevent a gap between the commitment periods.[58]
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beta. worldbank. org/ overview/ strategic-framework-development-and-climate-change). The International Bank for Reconstruction and
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[35] UNFCCC (n.d.). "Status of Ratification" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ kyoto_protocol/ status_of_ratification/ items/ 2613. php). UNFCCC website. .
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[36] PBL (October 16, 2009). "Industrialised countries will collectively meet 2010 Kyoto target" (http:/ / www. pbl. nl/ en/ dossiers/ COP13Bali/
moreinfo/ Industrialised-countries-will-collectively-meet-2010-Kyoto-target. html). Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)
website. . Retrieved 2010-04-03.
[37] PBL (n.d.). "Industrialised countries will meet collective Kyoto target of -4.2% for 2010. On web page: Frequently Asked Questions - PBL
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[38] UNFCCC (25 October 2005). "Sixth compilation and synthesis of initial national communications from Parties not included in Annex I to
the Convention. Note by the secretariat. Executive summary. Document code FCCC/SBI/2005/18" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ documentation/
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[39] Barker T., et al. (2007). "Mitigation costs across sectors and macro-economic costs" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/
wg3/ en/ tssts-ts-11-2-mitigation-costs. html). In B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer. Technical summary. Climate
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Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. This version: IPCC website.
ISBN 9780521880114. . Retrieved 2011-04-16.
[40] the Australian Academy of Science, the Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts, the Brazilian Academy of Sciences,
the Royal Society of Canada, the Caribbean Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the French Academy of Sciences, the
German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina, the Indian National Science Academy, the Indonesian Academy of Sciences, the Royal
Irish Academy, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy), the Academy of Sciences Malaysia, the Academy Council of the Royal Society of
New Zealand, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, and the Royal Society (UK)
[41] Joint academies' statement (May 18, 2001). "The Science of Climate Change (editorial)" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ short/
292/ 5520/ 1261). Science 292 (5520): 1261. doi:10.1126/science.292.5520.1261. . Retrieved 2010-04-03.
[42] Grubb, M. (April 2000). "The Kyoto Protocol: An Economic Appraisal. FEEM Working Paper No. 30 2000" (http:/ / ssrn. com/
abstract=229280). SSRN. doi:10.2139/ssrn.229280. . Retrieved 2010-04-02.
[43] Stern, N. (2007). "Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (pre-publication edition)" (http:/ / www. hm-treasury. gov. uk/
sternreview_index. htm). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. . Retrieved 2010-02-25.
[44] "Govt still not serious about climate change: Labor" (http:/ / abc. net. au/ news/ newsitems/ 200610/ s1772952. htm). ABC News Online.
2006-10-26. . Retrieved 2006-10-30.
[45] BBC (3 December 2007). "Rudd takes Australia inside Kyoto" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ world/ asia-pacific/ 7124236. stm). BBC
News. . Retrieved 2007-12-05.
[46] "Australia's Rudd sworn in as PM" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ asia-pacific/ 7124236. stm). BBC News (BBC). 2007-12-03. . Retrieved
2007-12-03.
[47] Prins, Gwyn et. al (May 2010). "The Hartwell Paper - A new direction for climate policy after the crash of 2009" (http:/ / eprints. lse. ac. uk/
27939/ 1/ HartwellPaper_English_version. pdf). London School of Economics. . Retrieved 2010-05-12.
[48] Mike Hulme (2010-05-11). "After the crash - a new direction for climate policy" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 8673828.
stm). BBC News. . Retrieved 2010-05-12.
[49] Andrew C. Revkin (2010-05-11). "A Tough Observer of Climate Prescriptions" (http:/ / dotearth. blogs. nytimes. com/ 2010/ 05/ 11/
a-tough-observer-of-climate-prescriptions/ ?ref=earth). The New York Times. . Retrieved 2010-05-12.
[50] "Oblique strategies" (http:/ / www. economist. com/ world/ international/ displaystory. cfm?story_id=16099521). The Economist.
2010-05-11. . Retrieved 2010-05-12.
[51] "Do You Heart 'The Hartwell Paper'?" (http:/ / news. sciencemag. org/ scienceinsider/ 2010/ 05/ do-you-heart-the-hartwell-paper. html).
Science Insider. 2010-05-12. . Retrieved 2010-05-12.
[52] "Politicians sign new climate pact" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ sci/ tech/ 6364663. stm). BBC. 2007-02-16. . Retrieved 2007-05-28.
[53] "Global leaders reach climate change agreement" (http:/ / environment. guardian. co. uk/ climatechange/ story/ 0,,2014683,00. html).
Guardian Unlimited. 2007-02-16. . Retrieved 2007-05-28.
Kyoto Protocol 427
[54] "Breakthrough on climate protection" (http:/ / www. g-8. de/ nn_92160/ Content/ EN/ Artikel/ __g8-summit/
2007-06-07-g8-klimaschutz__en. html). G8 Summit 2007 Heiligendamm. 2007-06-07. . Retrieved 2007-06-07.
[55] United Nations (2007-08-31). "Vienna UN conference shows consensus on key building blocks for effective international response to
climate change" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ files/ press/ news_room/ press_releases_and_advisories/ application/ pdf/
20070831_vienna_closing_press_release. pdf) (PDF). Press release. . Retrieved 2007-10-12.
[56] CBC News (2007-12-03). "UN climate change conference hails Australia Kyoto signing" (http:/ / www. cbc. ca/ world/ story/ 2007/ 12/ 03/
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[57] Walsh, Bryan (2008-12-04). "Green Banks: Paying Countries to Keep their Trees" (http:/ / timeinc8-sd11. websys. aol. com/ time/ nation/
article/ 0,8599,1864302,00. html). Time Magazine. . Retrieved 2009-05-21.
[58] UNFCCC (2010-07-20). "Legal considerations relating to a possible gap between the first and subsequent commitment periods" (http:/ /
unfccc. int/ resource/ docs/ 2010/ awg13/ eng/ 10. pdf). Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto
Protocol. . Retrieved 2010-08-03.
Further reading
• Depledge, J. (August 1999/August 2000). "Tracing the Origins of the Kyoto Protocol: An Article-by-Article
Textual History" (http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/tp/tp0200.pdf). UNFCCC Technical paper. Retrieved
2009-05-20.
• Ekardt, F./von Hövel, A.: Distributive Justice, Competitiveness, and Transnational Climate Protection. In:
Carbon & Climate Law Review, Vol. 3., 2009, p. 102–114.
• Kogan, Lawrence A. (June 2002). "The U.S. Response to the Kyoto Protocol – A Realistic Alternative?" (http://
blogs.shu.edu/projects/diplomacy/archives/5_kogan.pdf). The Whitehead Journal of Diplomacy and
International Relations, Volume III, Number 2. Retrieved 2001-10-20.
Economics
• Weyant, J.P. (ed) (May 1999). "The Costs of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation" (http://emf.
stanford.edu/publications/the_costs_of_the_kyoto_protocol_a_multimodel_evaluation/). Energy Journal
(Special issue). Retrieved 2009-08-08. From this issue:
• Manne, A.S. and R. Richels. The Kyoto Protocol: A Cost-Effective Strategy for Meeting Environmental
Objectives? (http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/38/53/1923159.pdf). Retrieved 2009-08-08.
• Nordhaus, W.D. and J.G. Boyer. Requiem for Kyoto: An Economic Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol (http://
www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/Kyoto.pdf). Retrieved 2009-08-08.
External links
• Full text of the Kyoto Protocol (HTML version) (http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.html), (PDF
version) (http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf) (Alternate HTML version) (http://kyoto.
internationalnetwork.com/)
• Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at Law-Ref.org (http://law-ref.
org/KYOTO/index.html) – fully indexed and crosslinked with other documents
• List of countries who have ratified, accepted, approved, or accessed the Kyoto Protocol (http://unfccc.int/files/
essential_background/kyoto_protocol/application/pdf/kpstats.pdf)
• The layman's guide to the Kyoto Protocol (http://mindprod.com/environment/kyoto.html)
• 2008 [[Cap and trade (http://lieberman.senate.gov/documents/amendment.pdf)] Bill in the U.S. Senate]
• The case against carbon trading by The Rising Tide Environmentalist Group (http://risingtide.org.uk/book/
print/101)
• Text of the Protocol (http://www.worldinbalance.net/intagreements/1997-kyotoprotocol.php) at the Center for
a World in Balance
• Kyoto: On Target? - Google Docs (https://spreadsheets.google.com/
ccc?key=0AmCeWwNKr6FmdGZLWGotWGNfcUtYWmkyalJIb21vbnc&hl=en<br ></a>#gid=0)
Kyoto Protocol 428
• 2010 Climate Talks in Jeopardy as Industrialized Nations Threaten Kyoto Protocol (http://www.democracynow.
org/2010/12/6/climate_talks_in_jeopardy_as_industrialized) - video report by Democracy Now!
Information
UN Chronicle: [1]
Special Climate Change Issue .
Connie Hedegaard was president of the conference until December 16, 2009, handing over the chair to Danish Prime
Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen in the final stretch of the conference, during negotiations between heads of state and
government.[2] On Friday 18 December, the final day of the conference, international media reported that the climate
talks were "in disarray".[5] [6] [7] Media also reported that in lieu of a summit collapse, solely a "weak political
statement" was anticipated at the conclusion of the conference.[8] [9]
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 429
The Copenhagen Accord was drafted by the US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa on December 18, and judged
a "meaningful agreement" by the United States government. It was "taken note of", but not "adopted", in a debate of
all the participating countries the next day, and it was not passed unanimously. The document recognised that
climate change is one of the greatest challenges of the present day and that actions should be taken to keep any
temperature increases to below 2°C. The document is not legally binding and does not contain any legally binding
commitments for reducing CO2 emissions.[10] Many countries and non-governmental organisations were opposed to
this agreement, but, as of January 4, 2010, 138 countries have signed the agreement. Tony Tujan of the IBON
Foundation suggests the perceived failure of Copenhagen may prove useful, if it allows people to unravel some of
the underlying misconceptions and work towards a new, more holistic view of things.[11] This could help gain the
support of developing countries. Malta's Ambassador for Climate Change, Michael Zammit Cutajar, extends this to
suggest "the shock has made people more open to dialogue" [12]
The reason for the apparent failure of this summit was revealed in December 2010 as a set of United States
diplomatic cables were released by WikiLeaks. They showed that United States and People's Republic of China, the
world's top two carbon dioxide emitters,[13] joined forces to stymie every attempt made in the summit to reach an
agreement. The secret framework for cooperation between two countries was outlined in May 2009 when John
Kerry, chairman of the United States Senate Foreign Relations Committee met Prime Minister of China, Li Keqiang.
It was revealed that in this meeting, Chinese were told that Washington could understand "China's resistance to
accepting mandatory targets at the United Nations Climate Conference, which will take place in Copenhagen" and "a
new basis for 'major cooperation' between the United States and China on climate change" was outlined, effectively
deterring world leaders from reaching a strong conclusion on climate change mitigation beyond 2012.[14] [15]
Seventh session
Bangkok
The first part of the seventh session of the AWG-LCA was held in Bangkok, Thailand, from Monday, 28 September
until 9 October, at the United Nations Conference Centre (UNCC) of the United Nations Economic and Social
Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP), Bangkok, Thailand.[23]
Barcelona
The resumed session was held in Barcelona, Spain, from 2 to 6 November 2009. Thereafter, the AWG-LCA met to
conclude its work at its eighth session, concurrently with the fifteenth session of the Conference of the Parties which
opened in Copenhagen on 7 December 2009.
Japan −25%
Brazil +5 to −1.8%
During the conference some countries stated what actions they were proposing to take if a binding agreement was
achieved. In the end, no such agreement was reached and the actions will instead be debated in 2010. Listing by
country or political union. Sections in alphabetic order, table according to higher objectives.
Australia
To cut carbon emissions by 25% below 2000 levels by 2020 if the world agrees to an ambitious global deal to
stabilise levels of CO2e to 450 ppm or lower.[24] [25]
To cut carbon emissions by 15% below 2000 levels by 2020 if there is an agreement where major developing
economies commit to substantially restrain emissions and advanced economies take on commitments comparable to
Australia.[24] [25] [26]
To cut carbon emissions by 5% below 2000 levels by 2020 unconditionally.[24] [25] [26]
It is clearly stated in proceedings from the Australian Senate[27] and policy statements from the government[26] [28]
[29]
that the Australian emission reductions include land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) with the form
of inclusion remaining undecided and whilst acknowledging that they are subject to the forming of accounting
guidelines from this Copenhagen conference. In contention is the Australian Government's preference for the
removal of non-human induced LULUCF emissions – and perhaps their abatement – from the account, such as from
lightning induced bushfires and the subsequent natural carbon sequestering regrowth.[30]
Using Kyoto accounting guidelines, these proposals are equivalent to an emissions cut of 24%,[27] [28] 14%[27] [28]
and 4%[27] [28] below 1990 levels by 2020 respectively. Raw use of UNFCCC CO2e data including LULUCF as
defined during the conference by the UNFCCC for the years 2000 (404.392 Tg CO2e[31] [32] [33] [34] [35] ) and 1990
(453.794 Tg CO2e[31] [32] [33] [34] [35] ) leads to apparent emissions cuts of 33% (303.294 Tg CO2e), 25% (343.733
Tg CO2e) and 15% (384.172 Tg CO2e) respectively.[36]
Belarus
To reduce emissions by 5-10% below 1990 levels by 2020.[25] [26]
Brazil
To cut emissions by 38–42% below projected 2020 levels (if no action was taken) by the year 2020.[37]
This is equivalent to a change to emissions to between 5% above and 1.8% below 1990 levels by 2020.[38]
Canada
In 2009 the goal was to cut carbon emissions by 20% below 2006 levels by 2020; an equivalent of 3% below
1990 levels by 2020.[25] [26] [36] [39] The goal was later changed in early 2010 to 17% of 2005 levels by 2020; an
equivalent of 2.5% above 1990 levels.[40] [41]
The three most populous provinces disagree with the federal government goal and announced more ambitious targets
on their jurisdictions. Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia announced respectively 20%, 15% and 14% reduction
target below their 1990 levels while Alberta is expecting a 58% increase in emissions.[42]
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 432
Costa Rica
To become carbon neutral by 2021.[25]
European Union
To cut greenhouse gas emissions by 30% (including LULUCF[26] ) below 1990 levels by 2020 if an international
agreement is reached committing other developed countries and the more advanced developing nations to
comparable emission reductions.[25] [26] [45] [46] [47]
To cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (excluding LULUCF[26] [48]
) below 1990 levels by 2020
unconditionally.[25] [26] [45] [46] [47]
Member country Germany has offered to reduce its CO2 emissions by 40% below 1990 levels by 2020.[49]
Iceland
To cut carbon emissions by 15% below 1990 levels by 2020.[25]
India
Indonesia
Liechtenstein
Maldives
Mexico
Monaco
To cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2020.[25]
New Zealand
To reduce emissions between 10% to 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 if a global agreement is secured that limits
carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) to 450 ppm and temperature increases to 2°C, effective rules on forestry, and New
Zealand having access to international carbon markets.[25] [53]
Norway
To reduce carbon emissions by 30% below 1990 levels by 2020.[25] [26]
During his speech at the conference, Prime Minister of Norway Jens Stoltenberg offered a 40% cut in emissions
below 1990 levels by 2020 if it could contribute to an agreement.[25] [54]
Philippines
To reduce emissions 5% below 1990 levels.[25]
Russia
Prior to the meeting, Russia pledged to reduce emissions between 20% to 25% below 1990 levels by 2020 if a
global agreement is reached committing other countries to comparable emission reductions.[55] This target had not
been announced to the UNFCCC Secretariat before the COP 15 meeting. In the COP 15 negotiations, Russia only
pledged to make a 10% to 15% reduction below 1990 levels by 2020 as part of a commitment to the Kyoto Protocol,
but said that it would reduce emissions by 20% to 25% as part of an agreement on long-term cooperative action.[25]
Singapore
To reduce emissions by 16% by 2020, based on business-as-usual levels.[25]
South Africa
To cut emissions by 34% below current expected levels by 2020.[25] [56]
This is equivalent to an absolute emissions cut of about 18% below 1990 levels by 2020.[57]
South Korea
To reduce emissions unilaterally by 4% below 2005 levels by 2020.[25] [58]
Switzerland
To reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20-30% below 1990 levels by 2020.[25] [26]
Ukraine
To reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2020.[25] [26]
Technology measures
UNEP
At the fifth Magdeburg Environmental Forum held from 3 to 4 July 2008, in Magdeburg, Germany, United Nations
Environment Programme called for the establishment of infrastructure for electric vehicles. At this international
conference, 250 high-ranking representatives from industry, science, politics and non-government organizations
discussed solutions for future road transportation under the motto of "Sustainable Mobility– United Nations Climate
Change Conference 2009|the Post-2012 CO2 Agenda".[64]
The Conference
Activism
Some small protests occurred during the first week of the
conference.[78] A much larger march was held in Copenhagen on
December 12 calling for a global agreement on climate. Between
40,000 and 100,000 people attended.[79] 968 protesters were detained
at the event, including 19 who were arrested for carrying pocket knives
and wearing masks during the demonstration. Of these all but 13 were
released without charge. One police officer was injured by a rock and a
protester was injured by fireworks.[78] Some protestors were kettled by
police and detained for several hours without access to food, water or
Demonstrators in Copenhagen
toilets,[80] before being arrested and taken to a holding facility on
coaches.[81] Protestors were said to be angry at the use of what they
considered "heavy-handed" police tactics.[79] Activists claimed that the
police used wire-taps, undercover officers and pepper spray on people
who had been detained.[82] The police said the measures were
necessary to deal with organisations such as Never Trust A COP which
stated on its website that it would "consciously attack the structures
supporting the COP15". Per Larsen, the chief coordinating officer for
the Copenhagen police force told the New York Times that it was
"surely the biggest police action we have ever had in Danish
history."[83] The December 12 demonstration moving down
Amagerbrogade
Four Greenpeace activists gatecrashed a dinner that heads of states were attending on December 18. They unfurled
banners saying "Politicians talk, leaders act" before being arrested. They were held without charge for almost three
weeks and were not questioned by police until two weeks after their arrest.[85]
International activism
An estimated 20,000 people took part in a march held in London, one week before the conference started. They
called on British leaders to force developed nations to cut their emissions by 40% by 2020 and to provide $150
billion a year by 2020 to assist the world's poorest countries in adapting to climate change.[86]
As many as 50,000 people took part in a number of marches in Australia, during the conference, calling for world
leaders to create a strong and binding agreement.[87] The largest march took place in Melbourne.[88]
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 436
Indigenous rights
Indigenous rights organization Survival International has raised concerns that some measures to mitigate the problem
of climate change affect the survival of tribal people as much as climate change.[96] [97] [98] [99] The United Nations
Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues has expressed similar concerns. Stephen Corry, director of Survival
International, explains that "projects that victimise the people and harm the environment cannot be promoted or
marketed as green projects". Survival International calls attention to the fact that these people, who least contribute
to the problem of climate change, are already the most affected by it; and that we must seek solutions that involve
indigenous people.[100] Andrew E. Miller, human rights campaigner at Amazon Watch, said, "Many indigenous
peoples, understandably, are skeptical that the latest silver bullet is really in their interest. In fact, serious concerns
have arisen that implementation of REDD [Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation] could
counteract fundamental indigenous rights, in the same way that countless conservation schemes have limited local
subsistence activities and led to displacement around the world."[101] Similar criticism came out of the climate
justice network Climate Justice Now!.
In March 2010, Executive Secretary, Estebancio Castro, of the International Alliance of Indigenous Tribal Peoples of
the Tropical Forests suggested that "indigenous people need recognition of their rights at the local and national level,
to be reflected in the negotiating process."[102]
Negotiating problems
On December 16, The Guardian reported that the summit in Copenhagen was in jeopardy. "We have made no
progress" said a source close to the talks. "What people don't realise is that we are now not really ready for the
leaders. These talks are now 17 hours late." Negotiators were openly talking of the best possible outcome being a
"weak political agreement that would leave no clear way forward to tackle rising greenhouse gas emissions". This
would mean that negotiations would continue into 2010 increasing the damage done by emissions.[103]
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 437
On December 18, the head of the United Nations Environmental Program told the BBC that "the summit as of this
morning is a summit in crisis" and that only the arrival of heads of state could bring the summit to a successful
conclusion. Head of climate change for WWF in Britain, said that the proposals made so far, especially those from
industrialised countries "all far short of what the world needs".[104]
Hopenhagen
Hopenhagen is a climate change campaign organized by the United Nations and the International Advertising
Association to support COP15, — the United Nations Climate Change Conference 2009. The creative council was
chaired by Bob Isherwood and the ad agencies that created the campaign included Ogilvy & Mather, Euro RSCG,
McCann Worldgroup, Draftfcb, Saatchi & Saatchi, Interbrand, Tribal DDB and Digitas.[105] The campaign runs the
web site http:/ / www. hopenhagen. org/ where users can sign a petition. Together with Huffington Post it also
included sponsoring of a "Hopenhagen Ambassador", — a citizen journalist selected in a contest.[106]
Renowned photographer John Clang has joined the global Hopenhagen effort with a stop-motion short film he
created to bring awareness to the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference. In addition to the film, Clang
shot and created a series of posters that bring to life the visual representation of Hopenhagen’s citizens.[107]
Outcome
On 18 December after a day of frantic negotiations between heads of state, it was announced that a "meaningful
agreement" had been reached between on one hand the United States and on the other, in a united position as the
BASIC countries (China, South Africa, India, and Brazil).[108] An unnamed US government official was reported as
saying that the deal was a "historic step forward" but was not enough to prevent dangerous climate change in the
future. However, the BBC's environment correspondent said: "While the White House was announcing the
agreement, many other – perhaps most other – delegations had not even seen it. A comment from a UK official
suggested the text was not yet final and the Bolivian delegation has already complained about the way it was reached
– 'anti-democratic, anti-transparent and unacceptable'. With no firm target for limiting the global temperature rise, no
commitment to a legal treaty and no target year for peaking emissions, countries most vulnerable to climate impacts
have not got the deal they wanted."[108] The use of "meaningful" in the announcement was viewed as being political
spin by an editorial in The Guardian.[109]
Early on Saturday 19 December, delegates approved a motion to "take note of the Copenhagen Accord[110] of
December 18, 2009". This was due to the opposition of countries such as Bolivia, Venezuela, Sudan and Tuvalu who
registered their opposition to both the targets and process by which the Copenhagen Accord was reached.[111] The
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon welcomed the US-backed climate deal as an "essential beginning" however
debate has remained as to the exact legal nature of the Accord.[112] The Copenhagen Accord recognises the scientific
case for keeping temperature rises below 2°C, but does not contain commitments for reduced emissions that would
be necessary to achieve that aim. One part of the agreement pledges US$ 30 billion to the developing world over the
next three years, rising to US$100 billion per year by 2020, to help poor countries adapt to climate change. Earlier
proposals, that would have aimed to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C and cut CO2 emissions by 80% by 2050 were
dropped. The Accord also favors developed countries' paying developing countries to reduce emissions from
deforestation and degradation, known as "REDD".[113] [114] The agreement made was non-binding but US President
Obama said that countries could show the world their achievements. He said that if they had waited for a binding
agreement, no progress would have been made.[115]
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 438
Reactions
Governments
US President Barack Obama said that the agreement would need to be built on in the future and that "We've come a
long way but we have much further to go."[116]
Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Great Britain said "We have made a start" but that the agreement needed to
become legally binding quickly.[116] He accused a small number of nations of holding the Copenhagen talks to
ransom.[117] EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said "I will not hide my disappointment regarding the
non-binding nature of the agreement here."[108] French President Nicolas Sarkozy commented "The text we have is
not perfect" however "If we had no deal, that would mean that two countries as important as India and China would
be freed from any type of contract."[108]
The head of China's delegation said that "The meeting has had a positive result, everyone should be happy."[116]
Wen Jiabao, China's prime minister said that the weak agreement was because of distrust between nations: "To meet
the climate change challenge, the international community must strengthen confidence, build consensus, make
vigorous efforts and enhance co-operation."[118] India's environment minister, Jairam Ramesh, has been reported as
saying, "We can be satisfied that we were able to get our way" and that India had "come out quite well in
Copenhagen".[119]
Brazil's climate change ambassador called the agreement "disappointing". The head of the G77 group of countries
said that the draft text asked African countries to sign a "suicide pact" and that it would "maintain the economic
dominance of a few countries". The values the solution was based on were "the very same values in our opinion that
funnelled six million people in Europe into furnaces". Representatives of the Venezuela, and Tuvalu were unhappy
with the outcome.[116] Bolivian president, Evo Morales said that, "The meeting has failed. It's unfortunate for the
planet. The fault is with the lack of political will by a small group of countries led by the US."[118]
John Ashe, the chair of the talks that led to the Kyoto protocol,[120] was also disappointed with the agreement made,
stating: "Given where we started and the expectations for this conference, anything less than a legally binding and
agreed outcome falls far short of the mark."[118]
Non-governmental organizations
Rajendra K. Pachauri stated the Copenhagen Accord is "good but not adequate."[121] John Sauven, executive director
of Greenpeace UK stated that "The city of Copenhagen is a crime scene tonight ... It is now evident that beating
global warming will require a radically different model of politics than the one on display here in Copenhagen."
According to him "there are too few politicians in this world capable of looking beyond the horizon of their own
narrow self-interest". Nnimmo Bassey, of Friends of the Earth international called the conference "an abject
failure".[116] Lydia Baker of Save the Children said that world leaders had "effectively signed a death warrant for
many of the world's poorest children. Up to 250,000 children from poor communities could die before the next major
meeting in Mexico at the end of next year."[114] Tim Jones, climate policy officer from the World Development
Movement said that leaders had "refused to lead and instead sought to bribe and bully developing nations to sign up
to the equivalent of a death warrant."[118]
Kim Carstensen of the World Wide Fund for Nature stated: "Well-meant but half-hearted pledges to protect our
planet from dangerous climate change are simply not sufficient to address a crisis that calls for completely new ways
of collaboration across rich and poor countries...We needed a treaty now and at best, we will be working on one in
half a year's time. What we have after two years of negotiation is a half-baked text of unclear substance." Robert
Bailey, of Oxfam International, said: "It is too late to save the summit, but it's not too late to save the planet and its
people. We have no choice but to forge forward towards a legally binding deal in 2010. This must be a rapid,
decisive and ambitious movement, not business as usual."[118]
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 439
"I think the bottom line for China (and India) is growth, and given that this growth is mainly based on coal,
there is going to have to be much more pressure on China if global emissions are to peak within any
reasonable time frame. In Beijing the interests of the Party come first, second and third, and global warming is
somewhere further down the list. Growth delivers stability and prosperity, and keeps the party in power."[136]
China's Xinhua news agency responded to these allegations by asserting that Premier Wen Jiabao played a sincere,
determined and constructive role at the last minute talks in Copenhagen and credited him with playing a key role in
the "success" of the conference.[137] [138] However, Wen did not take part in critical closed-door discussions at the
end of the conference.[135] [139] According to Wen himself, the Chinese delegation was not informed about the
critical discussion.[140]
The editorial of News Corporation's The Australian newspaper, blamed African countries for turning Copenhagen
into "a platform for demands that the world improve the continent's standard of living" and claimed that
"Copenhagen was about old-fashioned anti-Americanism, not the environment".[141]
Indian journalist Praful Bidwai puts the blame on both developed and a few developing countries such as India,
arguing that the "Copenhagen Accord is an illegitimate, ill-conceived, collusive deal between a handful of countries
that are some of the world’s greatest present and future emitters."[142] He argues that India's policy is driven by elites
determined to maintain high-consumer lifestyles which will have devastating effects for the vast majority of India's
poor.
Academics
In a panel discussion held at MIT, Henry Jacoby gave the results of an analysis on the effect of the commitments
made in the Accord.[143] According to this analysis, assuming that the commitments submitted in response to the
Accord (as of February 2010) are fulfilled, global emissions would peak around 2020. The resultant stock of
emissions was projected to exceed the level required to have a roughly 50% chance of meeting the 2 °C target that is
specified in the Accord. In his assessment, even emission reductions below that needed to reach the 2 °C target had
the benefit of reducing the risk of large amounts of future climate change.
Benito Müller commented on criticisms of the UNFCCC process.[144] In his view, the failure to get a better result at
Copenhagen was due to a lack of political will in the months preceding the conference.
Walter Russell Mead argues that the conference failed because environmentalists have changed from "Bambi to
Godzilla." According to Mead, environmentalist used to represent the skeptical few who made valid arguments
against big government programs which tried to impose simple but massive solutions on complex situations.
Environmentalists' more recent advocacy for big economic and social intervention against global warming,
according to Mead, has made them, "the voice of the establishment, of the tenured, of the technocrats" and thus has
lost them the support of a public which is increasingly skeptical of global warming.[145]
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• Official website (http://http://www.cop15.dk/)
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (http://unfccc.int/2860.php)
• United Nations Summit on Climate Change (http://un.org/wcm/content/site/climatechange/lang/en/
pages/2009summit)
• COP15 (http://www.dmoz.org/Science/Environment/Climate_Change/Conferences/COP15/) at the Open
Directory Project
• Advance version (2009-09-15) of the UN FCCC agreement (http://www.unifem.org/attachments/partnerships/
climate_change/lac_text_15_Sept_2009.pdf)
• Climate Action Tracker (http://www.climateactiontracker.org/)
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference 446
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docUploads/WEF G8 CC Roundtable Statement.pdf)
Fossil-fuel phase-out 447
Fossil-fuel phase-out
A fossil fuel phase-out are plans for transport electrification, decommissioning of operating fossil fuel-fired power
plants and prevention of the construction of new fossil-fuel-fired power stations. The purpose of this is to decrease
the high concentration of greenhouse gas emissions, which are the scientific consensus for the cause of the current
climate change.[1] The energy vectors concerned are oil, gas and coal.
Coal
Fossil-fuel phase-out 448
Some believe that coal should not be phased out and that clean coal technology is the way all emission from the
burning of coal can be restrained. But the renewable energy infrastructure, unlike unproven carbon-capture
technology, is being deployed now. Some environmentalists and climatologists support a phase-out and criticise
clean coal as not a solution to climate change, while entrepreneurs promote improved regulations and modernised
technology. Others point out that such a policy would affect developing countries most seriously because of the
scarcity of other fossil fuels.
G20
The 20 leaders of the world's top industrialized nations, as well as key countries with developing economies, have
agreed to phase out their subsidies for fossil fuels, including coal. In a concluding statement from the Group of 20
(G20) Summit—held in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on September 24 and 25, 2009 —the nations' leaders agreed to
"phase out and rationalize over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies." The G20 leaders also called for
targeted support for poor people that would be impacted by higher prices for fossil fuels. The leaders noted that
"inefficient" fossil-fuel subsidies "encourage wasteful consumption, reduce our energy security, impede investment
in clean energy sources, and undermine efforts to deal with the threat of climate change." The agreement will
ultimately phase out nearly $300 billion in global subsidies for fossil fuels. And as noted in a White House fact
sheet, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the International Energy Agency estimate
that eliminating fossil fuel subsidies worldwide would cut global greenhouse gas emissions by 10% or more by
2050.[20] [21] [22]
Fossil-fuel phase-out 449
Australia
The Australian Greens party have proposed to phase out coal power stations. The NSW Greens proposed an
immediate moratorium on coal-fired power stations and want to end all coal mining and coal industry subsidies. The
Federal Government's proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, an emissions trading scheme will, if enacted,
make it more difficult for new coal fired power stations to be developed. The Federal Government and Victorian
State Government want to modify existing coal-fired power stations into clean coal power stations. The Federal
Labor government extended the mandatory renewable energy targets, an initiative to ensure that new sources of
electricity are more likely to be from wind power, solar power and other sources of renewable energy in Australia.
Canada
Ontario
Ontario has passed coal phase-out legislation.[23] In 2007, Ontario's Liberal government committed to phasing out all
coal generation in the province by 2014. Premier Dalton McGuinty said, "By 2030 there will be about 1,000 more
new coal-fired generating stations built on this planet. There is only one place in the world that is phasing out
coal-fired generation and we're doing that right here in Ontario."[24]
China
There are currently no plans to phase out coal burning power stations in China. In fact, it's quite the reverse.
China’s exceedingly high energy demand has pushed the demand for relatively cheap coal-fired power. Each week,
another 2GW of coal-fired power is put online in China. Coal supplies about 80% of China's energy needs today, and
that ratio is expected to continue, even as overall power usage grows rapidly.
In addition to the huge investments in coal power, China is also building large nuclear power plants. The largest
hydro power plant in the world, the Three Gorges Dam, is also the largest power plant of any kind, and it operates in
China.
India
India is in no way phasing out coal or fossil fuels in general. The annual report of India's Power Ministry has a plan
to grow power by about 80GW as part of their 11th 5-year plan, and 79% of that growth will be in fossil-fuel fired
power plants, primarily coal.[25] India plans four new "ultra mega" coal-fired power plants as part of that growth,
each 4000MW in capacity.
Germany
Current Chancellor Angela Merkel, and her party colleagues in 2007 agreed to legislation to phase out Germany's
lignite mining sector. That does not mean, that they phase out coal in general. There are about 25 new plants to be
built in the next years. Most German coal power plants are from the 1960s with low energy efficiency. The public
resistance against coal power plants is growing and the construction or planning of some plants was successfully
stopped.[11] [12] [13] [14] [15]
Fossil-fuel phase-out 450
New Zealand
In October 2007 the Clark Labour government introduced a moratorium on coal-fired power plants.[26] The ban was
limited to state-owned utilities, though an extension to private sector was considered. The Key National government
elected in November 2008 lifted the moratorium.
South Africa
Around 77% of South Africa's energy demand is directly met by coal,[27] and when current projects come online, this
ratio will increase in the near term.
There are no plans to phase out coal fired power plants in South Africa, and indeed, the country is investing in
building massive amounts of new coal-fired capacity to meet power demands, as well as modernizing the existing
coal-fired plants to meet environmental requirements.
On April 6, 2010, the World Bank approved a $3.75B loan to SA to support the construction of the world's 4th
largest coal-fired plant, at Medupi.[28] The proposed World Bank loan includes a relatively small amount - $260
million - for wind and solar power.
Rated at 4800MW, Medupi would join other mammoth coal-fired power plants already in operation in the country,
namely Kendal (4100MW), Majuba (4100), and Matimba (4000), as well as a similar-capacity Kisile, at 4800MW,
currently under construction.[29] Kisile is expected to come online in stages, starting in 2012, while Medupi is
expected to first come online in 2013, with full capacity available by 2017. These schedules are provisional, and may
change.
Some estimate that after Kisile and Medupi come online, South Africa will then derive 94% of its domestic energy
from coal.
United Kingdom
Ed Miliband announced that no new coal-fired power stations will be built in Britain from 2009 onwards unless they
capture and bury at least 25% of greenhouse gases immediately and 100% by 2025 although at the time this was a
statement of intent rather than something he was able to enforce. [30]
Chris Huhne has confirmed that the legislation required to allow his office to enforce emissions standards are
proceeding. [31]
The UK is also subject to the EU's Large Combustion Plant Directive covering non-CO2 emissions which is
expected to bring many older plants to a close over the next few years as they are too expensive to upgrade. [32]
United States
As of 2007, 154 new coal-fired plants are on the drawing board in 42 states.[33]
California
California's SB 1368 created the first governmental moratorium on new coal plants in the United States. The law was
signed in September 2006 by Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger,[34] took effect for investor-owned
utilities in January 2007, and took effect for publicly owned utilities in August 2007. SB 1368 applied to long-term
investments (five years or more) by California utilities, whether in-state or out-of-state. It set the standard for
greenhouse gas emissions at 1,100 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour, the equal to the emissions of a
combined-cycle natural gas plant. This standard created a de facto moratorium on new coal, since it could not be met
without carbon capture and sequestration.[35]
Fossil-fuel phase-out 451
Maine
On April 15, 2008, Maine Governor John E. Baldacci signed LD 2126, "An Act To Minimize Carbon Dioxide
Emissions from New Coal-Powered Industrial and Electrical Generating Facilities in the State." The law, which was
sponsored by Rep. W. Bruce MacDonald (D-Boothbay), requires the Board of Environmental Protection to develop
greenhouse gas emission standards for coal gasification facilities. It also puts a moratorium in place on building any
new coal gasification facilities until the standards are developed.[36]
Texas
In 2006 a coalition of Texas groups organized a campaign in favor of a statewide moratorium on new coal-fired
power plants. The campaign culminated in a "Stop the Coal Rush" mobilization, including rallying and lobbying, at
the state capital in Austin on February 11 and 12th, 2007.[37] Over 40 citizen groups supported the mobilization.[38]
In January, 2007, A resolution calling for a 180-day moratorium on new pulverized coal plants was filed in the Texas
Legislature on Wednesday by State Rep. Charles "Doc" Anderson (R-Waco) as House Concurrent Resolution 43.[39]
The resolution was left pending in committee.[40] On December 4, 2007, Rep. Anderson announced his support for
two proposed integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) coal plants proposed by Luminant (formerly TXU).[41]
Washington state
Washington has followed the same approach as California, prohibiting coal plants whose emissions would exceed
those of natural gas plants. Substitute Senate Bill 6001 (SSB 6001), signed on May 3, 2007, by Governor Christine
Gregoire, enacted the standard.[42] As a result of SSB 6001, the Pacific Mountain Energy Center [43] in Kalama was
rejected by the state. However, a new plant proposal, the Wallula Energy Resource Center [44], shows the limits of
the "natural gas equivalency" approach as a means of stopping carbon dioxide emissions from coal plants. This
proposed plant would meet the standard set by SSB 6001, even though it would capture and sequester a portion (65
percent, according to a plant spokesman) of its carbon.[42]
• California Energy Commission (CEC) has initiated its review of two 53.4-megawatt solar thermal power plants
that will each include a 40-megawatt biomass power plant to supplement the solar power.[53]
Opinion polls
[54]
In October, 2007, Civil Society Institute released the results of a poll of 1,003 U.S. citizens conducted by
Opinion Research Corporation.
The authors of the poll reported: "75 percent of Americans –-including 65 percent of Republicans, 83 percent of
Democrats and 76 percent of Independents—would 'support a five-year moratorium on new coal-fired power plants
in the United States if there was stepped-up investment in clean, safe renewable energy—such as wind and
solar—and improved home energy-efficiency standards.' Women (80 percent) were more likely than men (70
percent) to support this idea. Support also was higher among college graduates (78 percent) than among those who
did not graduate from high school (68 percent).[55]
The exact question posed by the survey was as follows: More than half of power plant-generated electricity comes
from coal. Experts say that power plants are responsible for about 40 percent of U.S. carbon dioxide pollution linked
to global warming. There are plans tobuild more than 150 new coal-fired power plants over the next several years.
Would you support a five-year moratorium on new coal-fired power plants in the United States if there was
stepped-up investment in clean, safe and renewable energy –such as wind and solar –and improved home
energy-efficiency standards? Would you say definitely yes, probably yes, probably no, definitely no, or don't know.
The results were as follows:[56]
• 30% "definitely yes"
• 45% "probably yes"
• 13% "probably no"
• 8% "definitely no"
• 4% "don't know"
“
If you're a young person looking at the future of this planet and looking at what is being done right now, and not done, I believe we have
reached the stage where it is time for civil disobedience to prevent the construction of new coal plants that do not have carbon capture and
sequestration. ”
[72]
—Al Gore at the Clinton Global Initiative Annual Meeting
• Banker and financier Tom Sanzillo, currently First Deputy Comptroller for the state of New York, called for a
moratorium on new coal plants in the state of Iowa. Citing slow growth in electricity demand and better
alternative sources of energy, Sanzillo said, "It's not only good public policy, it's great economics."[73]
• Mary Wood, Professor of Law at the University of Oregon, called for a moratorium on new coal plants in an
videocast lecture to the University of Montana on February 19, 2008. Wood compared the urgency of the climate
crisis to World War II: “Nothing less than a massive global effort on the scale of WWII can save our climate.”[74]
Toward Solar
The Colorado Public Utilities Commission approved Xcel's voluntary decision to shut down two coal-fired power
plants in the state and building one of the world's largest utility-scale solar power plants and adding 850 megawatts
of wind energy to its system .[84] [85]
Toward Biomass
Biomass power is a growing trend in the United States.[86] In 2006, Public Service of New Hampshire [87][88]
finished converting one of its coal-fired power plants into a 50-MW biomass power plant, the Northern Wood Power
Project [89], which is fueled with woodchips. In 2008, DTE Biomass Energy[90] (DTE Energy Company) agreed to
buy the 50-MW E.J. Stoneman Power Plant in Cassville, Wisconsin, with plans to convert it to burn wood waste in
2009.
Georgia Power, a subsidiary of Southern Company, asked the state's public service commission for approval to
convert the coal-fired Plant Mitchell to run on wood fuel. If approved, the retrofit will begin in 2011 and the biomass
plant will start operating in mid-2012. The 96-MW biomass plant will run on surplus wood from suppliers within a
100-mile radius of the plant, which is located near Albany, Georgia.
Coal-fired power plant in Pepeekeo, Hawaii, that formerly provided electricity to a sugar mill and has been out of
operations since 2004, is seeking approval for conversion into a 24-megawatt (MW) biomass power plant. MMA
Renewable Ventures planned to finance the proposed conversion but its solar assets (the Pepeekeo plant remains an
asset of the parent company Municipal Mortgage and Securities also known as MuniMae and MMA) were sold to
Fotowatio, a company headquartered in Spain, on April 16, 2009, according to MMA's 10K Report and press
releases. The plant was renamed the Hū Honua Bioenergy Facility by the lessees of the plant assets.
Fossil-fuel phase-out 455
www.huhonua.com went inactive website as of October 2009. The proposed changes have not yet been permitted or
publicly viewed. Located about 8 miles north of Hilo on the Big Island of Hawaii, the facility will draw on residual
wood from the local timber industry and other biomass wastes to produce enough power for about 18,000 homes,
meeting up to 10% of the Big Island's electricity needs. The plant has received opposition from two separate
community group. The first group, called Keep Our Island Clean[91] opposes the poor efficiency (only 20%) and lack
of pollution controls. Hu Honua has not agreed to installation of Best Available Control Technology (BACT). The
second group Save Our Pepeekeo[92] opposes the plant because of its proximity to local residence.
Companies are also building new power plants designed to run on biomass.
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[2] Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, P. Kharecha, D. Beerling, R. Berner, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. Pagani, M. Raymo, D.L. Royer, and J.C. Zachos (2008).
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[8] "Electric Power Monthly - Table 1.1. Net Generation by Energy Source" (http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ cneaf/ electricity/ epm/ table1_1. html).
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[9] Kharecha, P.A., and J.E. Hansen, "Implications of "peak oil" for atmospheric CO2 and climate," (http:/ / pubs. giss. nasa. gov/ abstracts/ 2008/
Kharecha_Hansen. html) Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 22, GB3012, doi:10.1029/2007GB003142
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[11] "Germany to shut down coal mines in 2018" (http:/ / www. forbes. com/ feeds/ afx/ 2007/ 01/ 30/ afx3374339. html). Forbes. .
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External links
• US greens say coal must go - BBC News (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/428852.stm)
• Germany resolves to use 100 percent renewable energy (http://sustaindoor.googlepages.com/
GERMANY100PERCENTRENEWABLEENERGY.doc)
• Tipping point: Perspective of a climatologist. (http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2008/Hansen_1.html) In
State of the Wild 2008-2009: A Global Portrait of Wildlife, Wildlands, and Oceans. W. Woods, Ed. Wildlife
Conservation Society/Island Press, pp. 6–15.
Emissions trading 458
Emissions trading
Emissions trading is a market-based
approach used to control pollution by
providing economic incentives for achieving
reductions in the emissions of pollutants.[1]
It is a form of carbon pricing.
A central authority (usually a governmental
body) sets a limit or cap on the amount of a
pollutant that can be emitted. The limit or
cap is allocated or sold to firms in the form
of emissions permits which represent the
right to emit or discharge a specific volume
of the specified pollutant. Firms are required
to hold a number of permits (or carbon
credits) equivalent to their emissions. The
total number of permits cannot exceed the
cap, limiting total emissions to that level.
Firms that need to increase their emission
permits must buy permits from those who A coal power plant in Germany. Due to emissions trading, coal may become a less
[1] competitive fuel than other options.
require fewer permits. The transfer of
permits is referred to as a trade. In effect,
the buyer is paying a charge for polluting, while the seller is being rewarded for having reduced emissions. Thus, in
theory, those who can reduce emissions most cheaply will do so, achieving the pollution reduction at the lowest cost
to society.[2]
There are active trading programs in several air pollutants. For greenhouse gases the largest is the European Union
Emission Trading Scheme.[3] In the United States there is a national market to reduce acid rain and several regional
markets in nitrogen oxides.[4] Markets for other pollutants tend to be smaller and more localized.
Pollution as an Externality
By definition, an externality is an activity of one entity that affects the welfare of another entity in a way that is
outside the market mechanism.[5] Pollution is the prime example most economists think of when discussing
externalities. There are many different ways to address these from a public economics perspective including
emissions fees, cap-and-trade, and command-and-control regulation. Here we will discuss cap-and-trade as the
chosen public response to externalities.
Overview
The overall goal of an emissions trading plan is to minimize the cost of meeting a set emissions target.[6] The cap is
an enforceable limit on emissions that is usually lowered over time — aiming towards a national emissions reduction
target.[6] In other systems a portion of all traded credits must be retired, causing a net reduction in emissions each
time a trade occurs. In many cap-and-trade systems, organizations which do not pollute may also participate, thus
environmental groups can purchase and retire allowances or credits and hence drive up the price of the remainder
according to the law of demand.[7] Corporations can also prematurely retire allowances by donating them to a
nonprofit entity and then be eligible for a tax deduction.
Emissions trading 459
Definitions
The economics literature provides the following definitions of cap and trade emissions trading schemes.
A cap-and-trade system constrains the aggregate emissions of regulated sources by creating a limited number of
tradable emission allowances, which emission sources must secure and surrender in number equal to their
emissions.[8]
In an emissions trading or cap-and-trade scheme, a limit on access to a resource (the cap) is defined and then
allocated among users in the form of permits. Compliance is established by comparing actual emissions with permits
surrendered including any permits traded within the cap.[9]
Under a tradable permit system, an allowable overall level of pollution is established and allocated among firms in
the form of permits. Firms that keep their emission levels below their allotted level may sell their surplus permits to
other firms or use them to offset excess emissions in other parts of their facilities.[10]
Emission markets
For trading purposes, one allowance or CER is considered equivalent to one metric ton of CO2 emissions. These
allowances can be sold privately or in the international market at the prevailing market price. These trade and settle
internationally and hence allow allowances to be transferred between countries. Each international transfer is
validated by the UNFCCC. Each transfer of ownership within the European Union is additionally validated by the
European Commission.
Climate exchanges have been established to provide a spot market in allowances, as well as futures and options
market to help discover a market price and maintain liquidity. Carbon prices are normally quoted in Euros per tonne
of carbon dioxide or its equivalent (CO2e). Other greenhouse gasses can also be traded, but are quoted as standard
multiples of carbon dioxide with respect to their global warming potential. These features reduce the quota's
financial impact on business, while ensuring that the quotas are met at a national and international level.
Currently there are six exchanges trading in carbon allowances: the Chicago Climate Exchange, European Climate
Exchange, NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe, PowerNext, Commodity Exchange Bratislava and the European
Energy Exchange. NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe listed a contract to trade offsets generated by a CDM
carbon project called Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). Many companies now engage in emissions abatement,
offsetting, and sequestration programs to generate credits that can be sold on one of the exchanges. At least one
private electronic market has been established in 2008: CantorCO2e.[13] Carbon credits at Commodity Exchange
Bratislava are traded at special platform - Carbon place.[14]
Managing emissions is one of the fastest-growing segments in financial services in the City of London with a market
estimated to be worth about €30 billion in 2007. Louis Redshaw, head of environmental markets at Barclays Capital
predicts that "Carbon will be the world's biggest commodity market, and it could become the world's biggest market
overall."[15]
Emissions trading 460
History
The efficiency of what later was to be called the "cap-and-trade" approach to air pollution abatement was first
demonstrated in a series of micro-economic computer simulation studies between 1967 and 1970 for the National
Air Pollution Control Administration (predecessor to the United States Environmental Protection Agency's Office of
Air and Radiation) by Ellison Burton and William Sanjour. These studies used mathematical models of several cities
and their emission sources in order to compare the cost and effectiveness of various control strategies.[16] [17] [18] [19]
[20]
Each abatement strategy was compared with the "least cost solution" produced by a computer optimization
program to identify the least costly combination of source reductions in order to achieve a given abatement goal.[21]
In each case it was found that the least cost solution was dramatically less costly than the same amount of pollution
reduction produced by any conventional abatement strategy.[22] Burton and later Sanjour along with Edward H.
Pechan continued improving [23] and advancing[24] these computer models at the newly-created U.S. Environmental
Protection agency. The agency introduced the concept of computer modeling with least cost abatement strategies
(i.e. emissions trading) in its 1972 annual report to Congress on the cost of clean air. [25] This led to the concept of
"cap and trade" as a means of achieving the "least cost solution" for a given level of abatement.
The development of emissions trading over the course of its history can be divided into four phases:[26]
1. Gestation: Theoretical articulation of the instrument (by Coase,[27] Crocker,[28] Dales,[29] Montgomery[30] etc.)
and, independent of the former, tinkering with "flexible regulation" at the US Environmental Protection Agency.
2. Proof of Principle: First developments towards trading of emission certificates based on the "offset-mechanism"
taken up in Clean Air Act in 1977.
3. Prototype: Launching of a first "cap-and-trade" system as part of the US Acid Rain Program in Title IV of the
1990 Clean Air Act, officially announced as a paradigm shift in environmental policy, as prepared by "Project
88", a network-building effort to bring together environmental and industrial interests in the US.
4. Regime formation: branching out from the US clean air policy to global climate policy, and from there to the
European Union, along with the expectation of an emerging global carbon market and the formation of the
"carbon industry".
In the United States, the "acid rain"-related emission trading system was principally conceived by C. Boyden Gray, a
G.H.W. Bush administration attorney. Gray worked with the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), who worked with
the EPA to write the bill that became law as part of the Clean Air Act of 1990. The new emissions cap on NOx and
SO2 gases took effect in 1995, and according to Smithsonian Magazine, those acid rain emissions dropped 3 million
tons that year.[31]
Example
Emissions trading through Gains from Trade can be more beneficial for both the buyer and the seller than a simple
emissions capping scheme.
Consider two European countries, such as Germany and Sweden. Each can either reduce all the required amount of
emissions by itself or it can choose to buy or sell in the market.
For this example let us assume that
Germany can abate its CO2 at a much
cheaper cost than Sweden, e.g. MACS
> MACG where the MAC curve of
Sweden is steeper (higher slope) than
that of Germany, and RReq is the total
amount of emissions that need to be
reduced by a country.
On the right side is the MAC curve for Sweden. RReq is the amount of required reductions for Sweden, but the
MACS curve already intersects the market price of CO2 allowances before RReq has been reached. Thus, given the
market allowance price of CO2, Sweden has potential to make a cost saving if it abates fewer emissions than
required internally, and instead abates them elsewhere.
In this example, Sweden would abate emissions until its MACS intersects with P (at R*), but this would only reduce
a fraction of Sweden’s total required abatement. After that it could buy emissions credits from Germany for the price
P (per unit). The internal cost of Sweden’s own abatement, combined with the credits it buys in the market from
Germany, adds up to the total required reductions (RReq) for Sweden. Thus Sweden can make a saving from buying
credits in the market (Δ d-e-f). This represents the "Gains from Trade", the amount of additional expense that
Sweden would otherwise have to spend if it abated all of its required emissions by itself without trading.
Germany made a profit on its additional emissions abatement, above what was required: it met the regulations by
abating all of the emissions that was required of it (RReq). Additionally, Germany sold its surplus to Sweden as
credits, and was paid P for every unit it abated, while spending less than P. Its total revenue is the area of the graph
(RReq 1 2 R*), its total abatement cost is area (RReq 3 2 R*), and so its net benefit from selling emission credits is the
area (Δ 1-2-3) i.e. Gains from Trade
The two R* (on both graphs) represent the efficient allocations that arise from trading.
• Germany: sold (R* - RReq) emission credits to Sweden at a unit price P.
Emissions trading 462
Assuming no corruption and assuming that the controlling agency and the industry are equally efficient at adapting
to volatile market conditions, the best choice depends on the sensitivity of the costs of emission reduction, compared
to the sensitivity of the benefits (i.e., climate damages avoided by a reduction) when the level of emission control is
varied.
Because there is high uncertainty in the compliance costs of firms, some argue that the optimum choice is the price
mechanism. However, the burden of uncertainty cannot be eliminated, and in this case it is shifted to the taxing
agency itself.
Some scientists have warned of a threshold in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide beyond which a
run-away warming effect could take place, with a large possibility of causing irreversible damages. If this is a
conceivable risk then a quantity instrument could be a better choice because the quantity of emissions may be capped
with a higher degree of certainty. However, this may not be true if this risk exists but cannot be attached to a known
level of GHG concentration or a known emission pathway.[38]
A third option, known as a safety valve, is a hybrid of the price and quantity instruments. The system is essentially an
emission cap and permit trading system but the maximum (or minimum) permit price is capped. Emitters have the
choice of either obtaining permits in the marketplace or purchasing them from the government at a specified trigger
price (which could be adjusted over time). The system is sometimes recommended as a way of overcoming the
fundamental disadvantages of both systems by giving governments the flexibility to adjust the system as new
information comes to light. It can be shown that by setting the trigger price high enough, or the number of permits
low enough, the safety valve can be used to mimic either a pure quantity or pure price mechanism.[39]
All three methods are being used as policy instruments to control greenhouse gas emissions: the EU-ETS is a
quantity system using the cap and trading system to meet targets set by National Allocation Plans; Denmark has a
price system using a carbon tax (World Bank, 2010, p. 218),[40] while China uses the CO2 market price for funding
of its Clean Development Mechanism projects, but imposes a safety valve of a minimum price per tonne of CO2.
Carbon leakage
Carbon leakage is the effect that regulation of emissions in one country/sector has on the emissions in other
countries/sectors that are not subject to the same regulation (Barker et al.., 2007).[41] There is no consensus over the
magnitude of long-term carbon leakage (Goldemberg et al., 1996, p. 31).[42]
In the Kyoto Protocol, Annex I countries are subject to caps on emissions, but non-Annex I countries are not. Barker
et al.. (2007) assessed the literature on leakage. The leakage rate is defined as the increase in CO2 emissions outside
of the countries taking domestic mitigation action, divided by the reduction in emissions of countries taking domestic
mitigation action. Accordingly, a leakage rate greater than 100% would mean that domestic actions to reduce
emissions had had the effect of increasing emissions in other countries to a greater extent, i.e., domestic mitigation
action had actually led to an increase in global emissions.
Estimates of leakage rates for action under the Kyoto Protocol ranged from 5 to 20% as a result of a loss in price
competitiveness, but these leakage rates were viewed as being very uncertain.[43] For energy-intensive industries, the
beneficial effects of Annex I actions through technological development were viewed as possibly being substantial.
This beneficial effect, however, had not been reliably quantified. On the empirical evidence they assessed, Barker et
al.. (2007) concluded that the competitive losses of then-current mitigation actions, e.g., the EU ETS, were not
significant.
Emissions trading 464
Trade
One of the controversies about carbon mitigation policy thus arises about how to "level the playing field" with border
adjustments.[44] One component of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, for example, along with several
other energy bills put before Congress, calls for carbon surcharges on goods imported from countries without
cap-and-trade programs. Even aside from issues of compliance with the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade,
such border adjustments presume that the producing countries bear responsibility for the carbon emissions.
A general perception among developing countries is that discussion of climate change in trade negotiations could
lead to "green protectionism" by high-income countries (World Bank, 2010, p. 251).[40] Tariffs on imports ("virtual
carbon") consistent with a carbon price of $50 per ton of CO2 could be significant for developing countries. World
Bank (2010) commented that introducing border tariffs could lead to a proliferation of trade measures where the
competitive playing field is viewed as being uneven. Tariffs could also be a burden on low-income countries that
have contributed very little to the problem of climate change.
Trading systems
Kyoto Protocol
As the IPCC reports came in over the years they shed abundant light on the true state of global warming and they
gave support to the environmental effort to address this unprecedented problem. However, the same discussions that
started decades back had never ceased and the crusade for a tangible solution to global climate change had gone on
all the while. In 1997 the Kyoto Protocol was adopted. The Kyoto Protocol is a 1997 international treaty which came
into force in 2005. In the treaty, most developed nations agreed to legally binding targets for their emissions of the
six major greenhouse gases.[45] Emission quotas (known as "Assigned amounts") were agreed by each participating
'Annex 1' country, with the intention of reducing the overall emissions by 5.2% from their 1990 levels by the end of
2012. The United States is the only industrialized nation under Annex I that has not ratified the treaty, and is
therefore not bound by it. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has projected that the financial effect of
compliance through trading within the Kyoto commitment period will be limited at between 0.1-1.1% of GDP
among trading countries.[46]
The Protocol defines several mechanisms ("flexible mechanisms") that are designed to allow Annex I countries to
meet their emission reduction commitments (caps) with reduced economic impact (IPCC, 2007).[47]
Under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol, Annex 1 Parties may use GHG removals, from afforestation and
reforestation (forest sinks) and deforestation (sources) since 1990, to meet their emission reduction commitments.[48]
Annex 1 Parties may also use International Emissions Trading (IET). Under the treaty, for the 5-year compliance
period from 2008 until 2012,[49] nations that emit less than their quota will be able to sell Assigned amount units to
nations that exceed their quota.[50] It is also possible for Annex I countries to sponsor carbon projects that reduce
greenhouse gas emissions in other countries. These projects generate tradable carbon credits that can be used by
Annex I countries in meeting their caps. The project-based Kyoto Mechanisms are the Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI).
The CDM covers projects taking place in non-Annex I countries, while JI covers projects taking place in Annex I
countries. CDM projects are supposed to contribute to sustainable development in developing countries, and also
generate "real" and "additional" emission savings, i.e., savings that only occur thanks to the CDM project in question
(Carbon Trust, 2009, p. 14).[51] Whether or not these emission savings are genuine is, however, difficult to prove
(World Bank, 2010, pp. 265–267).[40]
Emissions trading 465
Australia
New Zealand
The New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) is a national all-sectors all-greenhouse gases uncapped
emissions trading scheme first legislated in September 2008 by the Fifth Labour Government of New Zealand[62] [63]
and amended in November 2009 by the Fifth National Government of New Zealand.[64]
Although the NZ ETS covers all-sectors and all-gases, individual sectors of the economy have different entry dates
when their obligations to report emissions and surrender emission units have effect. Forestry, a net sink which
contributed removals of 14 Mts of CO2e in 2008 or 19% of NZ's 2008 emissions,[65] entered on 1 January 2008.[66]
Emissions from stationary energy, industrial and liquid fossil fuel sectors (34 Mts in 2008, 45% of 2008
emissions,[65] entered the NZ ETS on 1 July 2010. Agricultural emissions (mainly 35 Mts of methane and nitrous
oxide emissions from pastoral ruminants or 47% of 2008 emissions[65] ) do not enter the scheme until 1 January
2015.[67]
Tradable emission units will be issued by free allocation to emitters, with no auctions in the short term.[68] The
fishing sector will receive free units on a historic basis, 90 per cent of their 2005 emissions (bullet points 9 & 10
MfE September 2009[67] ). Pre-1990 forests will receive a fixed free allocation of 60 emissions units per hectare.[66]
Allocation to emissions-intensive industry,[69] and agriculture[70] will be provided on an output-intensity basis,
which will be based on the industry average emissions per unit of output and will be uncapped.[71] Bertram and
Terry (2010, p 16 ) state that as there is no 'cap' on emissions, the NZ ETS is not a cap and trade scheme as
understood in the economics literature.[72]
Emissions trading 466
A transition period will operate from 1 July 2010 until 31 December 2012. During this period the price of New
Zealand Emissions Units (NZUs) will be capped at NZ$25. Also, one unit will only need to be surrendered for every
two tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions, effectively reducing the carbon price to NZ$12.50 per tonne
(MfE 2009, second bullet point).[67]
Section 3 of the Climate Change Response Act 2002 (the Act) defines the purpose of the Act as to reduce emissions
from business-as-usual-levels and to fulfill New Zealand's international obligations under the United Nations Frame
Work Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol.[73] Some stakeholders have criticized the
New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme for its generous free allocations of emission units and the lack of a carbon
price signal (the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment),[74] and being ineffective in reducing emissions
(Greenpeace NZ).[75]
European Union
The European Union Emission Trading Scheme (or EU ETS) is the largest multi-national, greenhouse gas emissions
trading scheme in the world. It is one of the EU's central policy instruments to meet their cap set in the Kyoto
Protocol (Jones et al.., 2007, p. 64).[76]
After voluntary trials in the UK and Denmark, Phase I commenced operation in January 2005 with all 15 (now 25 of
the 27) member states of the European Union participating.[77] The program caps the amount of carbon dioxide that
can be emitted from large installations with a net heat supply in excess of 20 MW, such as power plants and carbon
intensive factories[78] and covers almost half (46%) of the EU's Carbon Dioxide emissions.[79] Phase I permits
participants to trade amongst themselves and in validated credits from the developing world through Kyoto's Clean
Development Mechanism.
During Phases I and II, allowances for emissions have typically been given free to firms, which has resulted in them
getting windfall profits (CCC, 2008, p. 149).[80] Ellerman and Buchner (2008) (referenced by Grubb et al.., 2009,
p. 11) suggested that during its first two years in operation, the EU ETS turned an expected increase in emissions of
1-2 percent per year into a small absolute decline.[81] Grubb et al.. (2009, p. 11) suggested that a reasonable estimate
for the emissions cut achieved during its first two years of operation was 50-100 MtCO2 per year, or 2.5-5 percent.
A number of design flaws have limited the effectiveness of scheme (Jones et al.., 2007, p. 64). In the initial 2005-07
period, emission caps were not tight enough to drive a significant reduction in emissions (CCC, 2008, p. 149). The
total allocation of allowances turned out to exceed actual emissions. This drove the carbon price down to zero in
2007. This oversupply reflects the difficulty in predicting future emissions which is necessary in setting a cap.
Phase II saw some tightening, but the use of JI and CDM offsets was allowed, with the result that no reductions in
the EU will be required to meet the Phase II cap (CCC, 2008, pp. 145, 149). For Phase II, the cap is expected to
result in an emissions reduction in 2010 of about 2.4% compared to expected emissions without the cap
(business-as-usual emissions) (Jones et al.., 2007, p. 64). For Phase III (2013–20), the European Commission has
proposed a number of changes, including:
• the setting an overall EU cap, with allowances then allocated to EU members;
• tighter limits on the use of offsets;
• unlimiting banking of allowances between Phases II and III;
• and a move from allowances to auctioning.
In January 2008 Norway, Iceland, and Lichtenstein, joined the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU
ETS) according to a publication from the European Commission.[82] The Norwegian Ministry of the Environment
has also released its draft National Allocation Plan which provides a carbon cap-and-trade of 15 million metric
tonnes of CO2, 8 million of which are set to be auctioned.[83] According to the OECD Economic Survey of Norway
2010, the nation "has announced a target for 2008-12 10% below its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol and a
30% cut compared with 1990 by 2020." [84]
Emissions trading 467
Tokyo, Japan
The Japanese city of Tokyo is like a country in its own right in terms of its energy consumption and GDP. Tokyo
consumes as much energy as "entire countries in Northern Europe, and its production matches the GNP of the
world’s 16th largest country".[85] Originally, Japan had its own cap and trade system that had been in place for some
years, but was not effective.[86] Japan has its own emission reduction policy but not a nationwide cap and trade
program. This climate strategy is enforced and overseen by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government (TMG).[87] The
first phase, which is alike to Japan's scheme, runs up to 2014, these organizations will have to cut their carbon
emissions by 6%; those who fail to operate within their emission caps will from 2011 on be required to purchase
emission allowances to cover any excess emissions, or alternatively, invest in renewable energy certificates or offset
credits issued by smaller businesses or branch offices.[88] Firms whom fail to comply will face fines. According to
local reports, organizations that do not operate within their caps will also be ordered to cut emissions by 1.3 times
the amount they failed to reduce during the first phase of the scheme. The long term aim is to cut the metropolis'
carbon emissions by 25% from 2000 levels by 2020.[88]
United States
An early example of an emission trading system has been the SO2 trading system under the framework of the Acid
Rain Program of the 1990 Clean Air Act in the U.S. Under the program, which is essentially a cap-and-trade
emissions trading system, SO2 emissions were reduced by 50% from 1980 levels by 2007.[89] Some experts argue
that the cap-and-trade system of SO2 emissions reduction has reduced the cost of controlling acid rain by as much as
80% versus source-by-source reduction.[11] [90]
In 1997, the State of Illinois adopted a trading program for volatile organic compounds in most of the Chicago area,
called the Emissions Reduction Market System.[91] Beginning in 2000, over 100 major sources of pollution in eight
Illinois counties began trading pollution credits.
In 2003, New York State proposed and attained commitments from nine Northeast states to form a cap-and-trade
carbon dioxide emissions program for power generators, called the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). This
program launched on January 1, 2009 with the aim to reduce the carbon "budget" of each state's electricity
generation sector to 10% below their 2009 allowances by 2018.[92]
Also in 2003, U.S. corporations were able to trade CO2 emission allowances on the Chicago Climate Exchange
under a voluntary scheme. In August 2007, the Exchange announced a mechanism to create emission offsets for
projects within the United States that cleanly destroy ozone-depleting substances.[93]
Also in 2003, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) began to administer the NOx Budget Trading Program
(NBP)under the NOx State Implementation Plan (also known as the “NOx SIP Call”) The NOx Budget Trading
Program was a market-based cap and trade program created to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from
power plants and other large combustion sources in the eastern United States. NOx is a prime ingredient in the
formation of ground-level ozone (smog), a pervasive air pollution problem in many areas of the eastern United
States. The NBP was designed to reduce NOx emissions during the warm summer months, referred to as the ozone
season, when ground-level ozone concentrations are highest. In March 2008, EPA again strengthened the 8-hour
ozone standard to 0.075 parts per million (ppm) from its previous 0.008 ppm.[94]
In 2006, the California Legislature passed the California Global Warming Solutions Act, AB-32, which was signed
into law by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Thus far, flexible mechanisms in the form of project based offsets
have been suggested for five main project types. The project types include: manure management, forestry, building
energy, SF6, and landfill gas capture. However, a recent ruling from Judge Ernest H. Goldsmith of San Francisco's
Superior Court states that the rules governing California's cap-and-trade system were adopted without a proper
analysis of alternative methods to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.[95] The tentative ruling, issued on January 24,
2011, argues that the California Air Resources Board violated state environmental law by failing to consider such
alternatives. If the decision is made final, the state would not be allowed to implement its proposed cap-and-trade
Emissions trading 468
system until the California Air Resources Board fully complies with the California Environmental Quality Act.[96]
Since February 2007, seven U.S. states and four Canadian provinces have joined together to create the Western
Climate Initiative (WCI),a regional greenhouse gas emissions trading system.[97] July 2010, a meeting took place to
further outline the cap-and-trade system which if accepted would curb greenhouse gas emissions by January
2012.[98]
On November 17, 2008 President-elect Barack Obama clarified, in a talk recorded for YouTube, his intentions for
the US to enter a cap-and-trade system to limit global warming.[99]
The 2010 United States federal budget proposes to support clean energy development with a 10-year investment of
US $15 billion per year, generated from the sale of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions credits. Under the proposed
cap-and-trade program, all GHG emissions credits would be auctioned off, generating an estimated $78.7 billion in
additional revenue in FY 2012, steadily increasing to $83 billion by FY 2019.[100]
The American Clean Energy and Security Act (H.R. 2454) , a greenhouse gas cap-and-trade bill, was passed on June
26, 2009, in the House of Representatives by a vote of 219-212. The bill originated in the House Energy and
Commerce Committee and was introduced by Rep. Henry A. Waxman and Rep. Edward J. Markey.[101] It was never
passed in the Senate. The big Republican wins in the November 2010 U.S. Congressional election have further
reduced the chances of a climate bill being adopted during President Barack Obama's first term.[102]
Carbon market
Carbon emissions trading is emissions trading specifically for carbon dioxide (calculated in tonnes of carbon dioxide
equivalent or tCO2e) and currently makes up the bulk of emissions trading. It is one of the ways countries can meet
their obligations under the Kyoto Protocol to reduce carbon emissions and thereby mitigate global warming.
Market trend
Carbon emissions trading has been steadily increasing in recent years. According to the World Bank's Carbon
Finance Unit, 374 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) were exchanged through projects in
2005, a 240% increase relative to 2004 (110 mtCO2e)[103] which was itself a 41% increase relative to 2003 (78
mtCO2e).[104]
In terms of dollars, the World Bank has estimated that the size of the carbon market was 11 billion USD in 2005, 30
billion USD in 2006,[103] and 64 billion in 2007.[105]
The Marrakesh Accords of the Kyoto protocol defined the international trading mechanisms and registries needed to
support trading between countries, with allowance trading now occurring between European countries and Asian
countries. However, while the USA as a nation did not ratify the Protocol, many of its states are now developing
cap-and-trade systems and are looking at ways to link their emissions trading systems together, nationally and
internationally, to seek out the lowest costs and improve liquidity of the market.[106] However, these states also wish
to preserve their individual integrity and unique features. For example, in contrast to the other Kyoto-compliant
Emissions trading 469
systems, some states propose other types of greenhouse gas sources, different measurement methods, setting a
maximum on the price of allowances, or restricting access to CDM projects. Creating instruments that are not truly
fungible would introduce instability and make pricing difficult. Various proposals are being investigated to see how
these systems might be linked across markets, with the International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP) as an
international body to help co-ordinate this.[106] [107]
Business reaction
With the creation of a market for mandatory trading of carbon dioxide emissions within the Kyoto Protocol, the
London financial marketplace has established itself as the center of the carbon finance market, and is expected to
have grown into a market valued at $60 billion in 2007.[108] The voluntary offset market, by comparison, is projected
to grow to about $4bn by 2010.[109]
23 multinational corporations came together in the G8 Climate Change Roundtable, a business group formed at the
January 2005 World Economic Forum. The group included Ford, Toyota, British Airways, BP and Unilever. On
June 9, 2005 the Group published a statement stating that there was a need to act on climate change and stressing the
importance of market-based solutions. It called on governments to establish "clear, transparent, and consistent price
signals" through "creation of a long-term policy framework" that would include all major producers of greenhouse
gases.[110] By December 2007 this had grown to encompass 150 global businesses.[111]
Business in the UK have come out strongly in support of emissions trading as a key tool to mitigate climate change,
supported by NGOs.[112] However, not all businesses favor a trading approach. On December 11, 2008, Rex
Tillerson, the CEO of Exxonmobil, said a carbon tax is "a more direct, more transparent and more effective
approach" than a cap-and-trade program, which he said, "inevitably introduces unnecessary cost and complexity". He
also said that he hoped that the revenues from a carbon tax would be used to lower other taxes so as to be revenue
neutral.[113]
The International Air Transport Association, whose 230 member airlines comprise 93% of all international traffic,
position is that trading should be based on “benchmarking,” setting emissions levels based on industry averages,
rather than “grandfathering,” which would use individual companies’ previous emissions levels to set their future
permit allowances. They argue grandfathering “would penalise airlines that took early action to modernise their
fleets, while a benchmarking approach, if designed properly, would reward more efficient operations".[114]
Enforcement
Another significant, yet troublesome aspect is enforcement.[115] Without effective MRV and enforcement the value
of allowances is diminished. Enforcement can be done using several means, including fines or sanctioning those that
have exceeded their allowances. Concerns include the cost of MRV and enforcement and the risk that facilities may
be tempted to mislead rather than make real reductions or make up their shortfall by purchasing allowances or offsets
from another entity. The net effect of a corrupt reporting system or poorly managed or financed regulator may be a
discount on emission costs, and a (hidden) increase in actual emissions.
According to Nordhaus (2007, p. 27), strict enforcement of the Kyoto Protocol is likely to be observed in those
countries and industries covered by the EU ETS.[116] Ellerman and Buchner (2007, p. 71) commented on the
European Commission's (EC's) role in enforcing scarcity of permits within the EU ETS.[117] This was done by the
EC's reviewing the total number of permits that member states proposed that their industries be allocated. Based on
institutional and enforcement considerations, Kruger et al. (2007, pp. 130–131) suggested that emissions trading
within developing countries might not be a realistic goal in the near-term.[118] Burniaux et al.. (2008, p. 56) argued
that due to the difficulty in enforcing international rules against sovereign states, development of the carbon market
would require negotiation and consensus-building.[119]
Criticisms
Emissions trading has been criticised for a variety of reasons.
In the popular science magazine New Scientist, Lohmann (2006)
argued that trading pollution allowances should be avoided as a climate
change policy. Lohman gave these reasons for this view. First, global
warming will require more radical change than the modest changes
driven by previous pollution trading schemes such as the US SO2
market. Global warming requires "nothing less than a reorganisation of
society and technology that will leave most remaining fossil fuels Chicago Climate Justice activists protesting cap
and trade legislation in front of Chicago Climate
safely underground." Carbon trading schemes have tended to reward
Exchange building in Chicago Loop
the heaviest polluters with 'windfall profits' when they are granted
enough carbon credits to match historic production. Carbon trading
encourages business-as-usual as expensive long-term structural changes will not be made if there is a cheaper source
of carbon credits. Cheap "offset" carbon credits are frequently available from the less developed countries, where
they may be generated by local polluters at the expense of local communities.[120]
Lohmann (2006b) supported conventional regulation, green taxes, and energy policies that are "justice-based" and
"community-driven."[121] According to Carbon Trade Watch (2009), carbon trading has had a "disastrous track
record." The effectiveness of the EU ETS was criticized, and it was argued that the CDM had routinely favoured
"environmentally ineffective and socially unjust projects."[122]
Annie Leonard provided a critical view on carbon emissions trading in her 2009 documentary The Story of Cap and
Trade. This documentary emphasized three factors: unjust financial advantages to major pollutors resulting from free
permits, an ineffectiveness of the system caused by cheating in connection with carbon offsets and a distraction from
the search for other solutions.[123]
Emissions trading 471
Offsets
Forest campaigner Jutta Kill (2006) of European environmental group FERN argued that offsets for emission
reductions were no substitute for actual cuts in emissions. Kill stated that "[carbon] in trees is temporary: Trees can
easily release carbon into the atmosphere through fire, disease, climatic changes, natural decay and timber
harvesting."[126]
Supply of permits
Regulatory agencies run the risk of issuing too many emission credits, which can result in a very low price on
emission permits (CCC, 2008, p. 140).[80] This reduces the incentive that permit-liable firms have to cut back their
emissions. On the other hand, issuing too few permits can result in an excessively high permit price (Hepburn, 2006,
p. 239).[127] This is one of the arguments in favour of a hybrid instrument, that has a price-floor, i.e., a minimum
permit price, and a price-ceiling, i.e., a limit on the permit price. A price-ceiling (safety value) does, however,
remove the certainty of a particular quantity limit of emissions (Bashmakov et al.., 2001).[128]
Incentives
Emissions trading can result in perverse incentives. If, for example, polluting firms are given emission permits for
free ("grandfathering"), this may create a reason for them not to cut their emissions. This is because a firm making
large cuts in emissions would then potentially be granted fewer emission permits in the future (IMF, 2008,
pp. 25–26).[129] This perverse incentive can be alleviated if permits are auctioned, i.e., sold to polluters, rather than
giving them the permits for free (Hepburn, 2006, pp. 236–237).[127]
On the other hand, allocating permits can be used as a measure to protect domestic firms who are internationally
exposed to competition (p. 237). This happens when domestic firms compete against other firms that are not subject
to the same regulation. This argument in favour of allocation of permits has been used in the EU ETS, where
industries that have been judged to be internationally exposed, e.g., cement and steel production, have been given
permits for free (4CMR, 2008).[130]
Emissions trading 472
Auctioning
The revenues from auctioning go to the government. These revenues could, for example, be used for research and
development of sustainable technology.[131] Alternatively, revenues could be used to cut distortionary taxes, thus
improving the efficiency of the overall cap policy (Fisher et al.., 1996, p. 417).[132]
Distributional effects
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO, 2009) examined the potential effects of the American Clean Energy and
Security Act on US households.[133] This Act relies heavily on the free allocation of permits. The Bill was found to
protect low-income consumers, but it was recommended that the Bill be changed to be more efficient. It was
suggested that the Bill be changed to reduce welfare provisions for corporations, and more resources be made
available for consumer relief.
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Further reading
• Chichilnisky, C.; Heal, G., eds (2000). "Environmental Markets: Equity and Efficiency" (http://www.
chichilnisky.com/publication.php). Print version: Columbia University Press, New York, Chichester, West
Sussex. Web version: Graciela Chichilnisky's website. Retrieved 2010-05-12.
• Gilbertson, T. and O. Reyes (1 November 2009). "Carbon Trading: how it works and why it fails" (http://www.
carbontradewatch.org/publications/carbon-trading-how-it-works-and-why-it-fails.html). Dag Hammerskjold
Foundation. Retrieved 2010-05-14.
• IEA (2005). "Act Locally, Trade Globally- Emissions Trading for Climate Policy" (http://www.iea.org/
publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=1579). International Energy Agency (IEA), Head of Publications
Service, 9 rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France. p. 236. Retrieved 2010-05-12.
• Lin Feng and Jason Buhi (2009). "Emissions Trading Across China: Incorporating Hong Kong and Macau into an
Urgently Needed Air Pollution Control Regime Under 'One Country, Two Systems'" (http://papers.ssrn.com/
sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1441395). Florida State University Journal of Transnational Law & Policy, Vol.
19, 2009. Retrieved 2010-10-17.
• Norregaard, J. and V. Reppelin-Hill (1 January 2000). "Taxes and Tradable Permits as Instruments for
Controlling Pollution: Theory and Practice. Working Paper No. 00/13" (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/
cat/longres.cfm?sk=3411.0). International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Department. Retrieved 2010-05-12.
Emissions trading 478
• Reinaud, J. and C. Philibert (22 November 2007). "Emissions trading: trends and prospects" (http://www.iea.
org/publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=2001). International Energy Agency website. p. 43. Retrieved
2010-05-12.
External links
• Q&A with Dr. Daniel Fine on Cap and Trade legislation and policy (http://www.opednews.com/Diary/
Dr-Daniel-Fine-on-Cap-and-by-Helen-Fine-090617-238.html)
• Dr. Daniel Fine of the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy on Cap and Trade (http://nmcep.nmt.edu/index.
php/NMCEP-and-Related-News/cap-and-trade-changing-everything.html)
• Emissions Trading and CDM (http://www.iea.org/subjectqueries/keyresult.asp?KEYWORD_ID=4124) –
International Energy Agency website
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading (http://www.oecd.org/env/cc/emissiontrading) – Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development website
• US EPA's Acid Rain Program (http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/arp/index.html)
• Illinois Emissions Reduction Market System (http://www.epa.state.il.us/air/erms/)
• Texas Emissions Banking and Trading program (http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/permitting/air/nav/
air_banking.html)
• "The Making of a Market-Minded Environmentalist" (http://www.strategy-business.com/press/article/
08201?pg=0), article by Fred Krupp in Strategy+Business (registration reqd) that articulates some of the
reasoning and history behind emissions trading in California
• International Emissions Trading Association (http://www.ieta.org/)
• EU-ETS for airlines (http://www.aviaso.com/)
implementing an energy efficient technology. Reducing energy use is also seen as a key solution to the problem of
reducing greenhouse gas emissions. According to the International Energy Agency, improved energy efficiency in
buildings, industrial processes and transportation could reduce the world's energy needs in 2050 by one third, and
help control global emissions of greenhouse gases.[3]
Energy efficiency and renewable energy are said to be the twin pillars of sustainable energy policy.[4] In many
countries energy efficiency is also seen to have a national security benefit because it can be used to reduce the level
of energy imports from foreign countries and may slow down the rate at which domestic energy resources are
depleted.
Overview
Making homes, vehicles, and businesses more energy efficient is seen as a largely untapped solution to addressing
the problems of pollution, global warming, energy security, and fossil fuel depletion. Many of these ideas have been
discussed for years, since the 1973 oil crisis brought energy issues to the forefront. In the late 1970s, physicist
Amory Lovins popularized the notion of a "soft energy path", with a strong focus on energy efficiency. Among other
things, Lovins popularized the notion of negawatts—the idea of meeting energy needs by increasing efficiency
instead of increasing energy production.
Energy efficiency has proved to be a cost-effective strategy for building economies without necessarily growing
energy consumption. For example, the state of California began implementing energy-efficiency measures in the
mid-1970s, including building code and appliance standards with strict efficiency requirements. During the
following years, California's energy consumption has remained approximately flat on a per capita basis while
national U.S. consumption doubled. As part of its strategy, California implemented a "loading order" for new energy
resources that puts energy efficiency first, renewable electricity supplies second, and new fossil-fired power plants
last.[5]
Lovins' Rocky Mountain Institute points out that in industrial settings, "there are abundant opportunities to save 70%
to 90% of the energy and cost for lighting, fan, and pump systems; 50% for electric motors; and 60% in areas such as
heating, cooling, office equipment, and appliances." In general, up to 75% of the electricity used in the U.S. today
could be saved with efficiency measures that cost less than the electricity itself. The same holds true for
home-owners, leaky ducts have remained an invisible energy culprit for years. In fact, researchers at the US
Department of Energy and their consortium, Residential Energy Efficient Distribution Systems (REEDS) have found
that duct efficiency may be as low as 50-70%. The US Department of Energy has stated that there is potential for
energy saving in the magnitude of 90 Billion kWh by increasing home energy efficiency.[6]
Other studies have emphasized this. A report published in 2006 by the McKinsey Global Institute, asserted that
"there are sufficient economically viable opportunities for energy-productivity improvements that could keep global
energy-demand growth at less than 1 percent per annum"—less than half of the 2.2 percent average growth
anticipated through 2020 in a business-as-usual scenario. Energy productivity, which measures the output and
quality of goods and services per unit of energy input, can come from either reducing the amount of energy required
to produce something, or from increasing the quantity or quality of goods and services from the same amount of
energy.
The Vienna Climate Change Talks 2007 Report, under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC), clearly shows "that energy efficiency can achieve real emission reductions at low
cost."[7]
Efficient energy use 480
Appliances
Modern energy-efficient appliances, such as refrigerators, freezers, ovens,
stoves, dishwashers, and clothes washers and dryers, use significantly less
energy than older appliances. Current energy efficient refrigerators, for
example, use 40 percent less energy than conventional models did in
2001. Following this, if all households in Europe changed their more than
ten year old appliances into new ones, 20 billion kWh of electricity would
be saved annually, hence reducing CO2 emissions by almost 18 billion
kg.[8] In the US, the corresponding figures would be 17 billion kWh of
electricity and 27000000000 lb (1.2×1010 kg) CO2.[9] According to a 2009
study from McKinsey & Company the replacement of old appliances is
one of the most efficient global measures to reduce emissions of
greenhouse gases.[10] Modern power management systems also reduce
energy usage by idle appliances by turning them off or putting them into a
low-energy mode after a certain time. Many countries identify
energy-efficient appliances using energy input labeling.[11]
Building design
A building’s location and surroundings play a key role in regulating its temperature and illumination. For example,
trees, landscaping, and hills can provide shade and block wind. In cooler climates, designing buildings with a south
facing windows increases the amount of sun (ultimately heat energy) entering the building, minimizing energy use,
by maximizing passive solar heating. Tight building design, including energy-efficient windows, well-sealed doors,
and additional thermal insulation of walls, basement slabs, and foundations can reduce heat loss by 25 to 50
percent.[11]
Dark roofs may become up to 39 C° (70 F°) hotter than the most reflective white surfaces, and they transmit some of
this additional heat inside the building. US Studies have shown that lightly colored roofs use 40 percent less energy
for cooling than buildings with darker roofs. White roof systems save more energy in sunnier climates. Advanced
electronic heating and cooling systems can moderate energy consumption and improve the comfort of people in the
building.[11]
Proper placement of windows and skylights and use of architectural features that reflect light into a building, can
reduce the need for artificial lighting. Increased use of natural and task lighting have been shown by one study to
increase productivity in schools and offices.[11] Compact fluorescent lights use two-thirds less energy and may last 6
to 10 times longer than incandescent light bulbs. Newer fluorescent lights produce a natural light, and in most
applications they are cost effective, despite their higher initial cost, with payback periods as low as a few months.[13]
Effective energy-efficient building design can include the use of low cost Passive Infra Reds (PIRs) to switch-off
lighting when areas are unnoccupied such as toilets, corridors or even office areas out-of-hours. In addition, lux
levels can be monitored using daylight sensors linked to the building's lighting scheme to switch on/off or dim the
Efficient energy use 481
lighting to pre-defined levels to take into account the natural light and thus reduce consumption. Building
Management Systems (BMS) link all of this together in one centralised computer to control the whole building's
lighting and power requirements.[14]
The choice of which space heating or cooling technology to use in buildings can have a significant impact on energy
use and efficiency. For example, replacing an older 50% efficient natural gas furnace with a new 95% one will
dramatically reduce energy use, carbon emissions, and winter natural gas bills. Ground source heat pumps can be
even more energy efficient and cost effective. These systems use pumps and compressors to move refrigerant fluid
around a thermodynamic cycle in order to "pump" heat against its natural flow from hot to cold, for the purpose of
transferring heat into a building from the large thermal reservoir contained within the nearby ground. The end result
is that heat pumps typically use four times less electrical energy to deliver an equivalent amount of heat than a direct
electrical heater does. Another advantage of a ground source heat pump is that it can be reversed in summertime and
operate to cool the air by transferring heat from the building to the ground. The disadvantage of ground source heat
pumps is their high initial capital cost, but this is typically recouped within 5 to 10 years as a result of lower energy
use.
Smart meters are slowly being adopted by the commerial sector to highlight to staff and for internal monitoring
purposes the building's energy usage in a dynamic presentable format. The use of Power Quality Analysers can be
introduced into an existing building to assess usage, harmonic distortion, peaks, swells and interruptions amongst
others to ultimately make the building more energy-efficient. Often such meters communicate by using wireless
sensor networks.[15]
A term relevant for efficient energy use is energy use intensity, which is defined as energy consumption per floor
area.[16]
Industry
Industry uses a large amount of energy to power a diverse range of manufacturing and resource extraction processes.
Many industrial processes require large amounts of heat and mechanical power, most of which is delivered as natural
gas, petroleum fuels and as electricity. In addition some industries generate fuel from waste products that can be
used to provide additional energy.
Because industrial processes are so diverse it is impossible to describe the multitude of possible opportunities for
energy efficiency in industry. Many depend on the specific technologies and processes in use at each industrial
facility. However there are a number of processes and energy services that are widely used in many industries.
Various industries generate steam and electricity for subsequent use within their facilities. When electricity is
generated, the heat that is produced as a by-product can be captured and used for process steam, heating or other
industrial purposes. Conventional electricity generation is about 30 percent efficient, whereas combined heat and
power (also called co-generation) converts up to 90 percent of the fuel into usable energy.[17]
Advanced boilers and furnaces can operate at higher temperatures while burning less fuel. These technologies are
more efficient and produce fewer pollutants.[17]
Over 45 percent of the fuel used by US manufacturers is burnt to make steam. The typical industrial facility can
reduce this energy usage 20 percent (according to the US Department of Energy) by insulating steam and condensate
return lines, stopping steam leakage, and maintaining steam traps.[17]
Electric motors usually run at a constant speed, but a variable speed drive allows the motor’s energy output to match
the required load. This achieves energy savings ranging from 3 to 60 percent, depending on how the motor is used.
Motor coils made of superconducting materials can also reduce energy losses.[17] Motors may also benefit from
voltage optimisation.
Industry uses a large number of pumps and compressors of all shapes and sizes and in a wide variety of applications.
The efficiency of pumps and compressors depends on many factors but often improvements can be made by
Efficient energy use 482
implementing better process control and better maintenance practices. Compressors are commonly used to provide
compressed air which is used for sand blasting, painting, and other power tools. According to the US Department of
Energy, optimizing compressed air systems by installing variable speed drives, along with preventive maintenance to
detect and fix air leaks, can improve energy efficiency 20 to 50 percent.[17]
Vehicles
The estimated energy efficiency for an automobile is 280 Passenger-Mile/106 Btu.[18] There are several ways to
enhance a vehicle's energy efficiency. Using improved aerodynamics to minimize drag can increase vehicle fuel
efficiency. Reducing vehicle weight can also improve fuel economy, which is why composite materials are widely
used in car bodies.
More advanced tires, with decreased tire to road friction and rolling resistance, can save gasoline. Fuel economy can
be improved by up to 3.3% by keeping tires inflated to the correct pressure.[19] Replacing a clogged air filter can
improve a cars fuel consumption by as much as 10 percent on older vehicles.[20] On newer vehicles (1980's and up)
with fuel-injected, computer-controlled engines, a clogged air filter has no effect on mpg but replacing it may
improve acceleration by 6-11 percent.[21]
Energy-efficient vehicles may reach twice the fuel efficiency of the average automobile. Cutting-edge designs, such
as the diesel Mercedes-Benz Bionic concept vehicle have achieved a fuel efficiency as high as 84 miles per US
gallon (2.8 L/100 km; 101 mpg-imp), four times the current conventional automotive average.[20]
The mainstream trend in automotive efficiency is the rise of electric vehicles (all@electric or hybrid electric).
Hybrids, like the Toyota Prius, use regenerative braking to recapture energy that would dissipate in normal cars; the
effect is especially pronounced in city driving. plug-in hybrids also have increased battery capacity, which makes it
possible to drive for limited distances without burning any gasoline; in this case, energy efficiency is dictated by
whatever process (such as coal-burning, hydroelectric, or renewable source) created the power. Plug-ins can
typically drive for around 40 miles (64 km) purely on electricity without recharging; if the battery runs low, a gas
engine kicks in allowing for extended range. Finally, all-electric cars are also growing in popularity; the Tesla
Roadster sports car is the only high-performance all-electric car currently on the market, and others are in
preproduction.[22]
Energy conservation
Energy conservation is broader than energy efficiency in including active efforts to decrease energy consumption, for
example through behavioural change, in addition to using energy more efficiently. Examples of conservation without
efficiency improvements are heating a room less in winter, using the car less, or enabling energy saving modes on a
computer. As with other definitions, the boundary between efficient energy use and energy conservation can be
fuzzy, but both are important in environmental and economic terms.[23] This is especially the case when actions are
directed at the saving of fossil fuels.[24] Energy conservation is a challenge requiring policy programmes,
technological development and behavioral change to go hand in hand. Many energy intermediary organisations, for
example governmental or non-governmental organisations on local, regional, or national level, are working on often
publicly funded programmes or projects to meet this challenge.[25]
Sustainable energy
Energy efficiency and renewable energy are said to be the “twin pillars” of a sustainable energy policy. Both
strategies must be developed concurrently in order to stabilize and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Efficient energy
use is essential to slowing the energy demand growth so that rising clean energy supplies can make deep cuts in
fossil fuel use. If energy use grows too rapidly, renewable energy development will chase a receding target.
Likewise, unless clean energy supplies come online rapidly, slowing demand growth will only begin to reduce total
Efficient energy use 483
carbon emissions; a reduction in the carbon content of energy sources is also needed. A sustainable energy economy
thus requires major commitments to both efficiency and renewables.[26]
Rebound effect
If the demand for energy services remains constant, improving energy efficiency will reduce energy consumption
and carbon emissions. However, many efficiency improvements do not reduce energy consumption by the amount
predicted by simple engineering models. This is because they make energy services cheaper, and so consumption of
those services increases. For example, since fuel efficient vehicles make travel cheaper, consumers may choose to
drive farther and/or faster, thereby offsetting some of the potential energy savings. This is an example of the direct
rebound effect.[27]
Estimates of the size of the rebound effect range from roughly 5% to 40%.[28] [29] [30] The rebound effect is likely to
be less than 30% at the household level and may be closer to 10% for transport.[27] A rebound effect of 30% implies
that improvements in energy efficiency should achieve 70% of the reduction in energy consumption projected using
engineering models.
Since more efficient (and hence cheaper) energy will also lead to faster economic growth, there are suspicions that
improvements in energy efficiency may eventually lead to even faster resource use. This was postulated by
economists in the 1980s and remains a controversial hypothesis. Ecological economists have suggested that any cost
savings from efficiency gains be taxed away by the government in order to avoid this outcome.[31]
Lebanon
• The Lebanese Center for Energy Conservation
United Kingdom
• The Carbon Trust
• Energy Saving Trust
• National Energy Action
• National Energy Foundation
United States
• Alliance to Save Energy
• American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE)
• Building Codes Assistance Project
• Building Energy Codes Program
• Energy Star, from United States Environmental Protection Agency
• Industrial Assessment Center
• National Electrical Manufacturers Association
• Rocky Mountain Institute
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[2] Diesendorf, Mark (2007). Greenhouse Solutions with Sustainable Energy, UNSW Press, p. 86.
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[9] "Ecosavings (Tm) Calculator" (http:/ / www. electrolux. com/ ecosavings_us). Electrolux.com. . Retrieved 2010-07-16.
[10] McKinsey & Company (2009). Pathway to a Low-Carbon Economy : Version 3 of the Global Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curve, p. 7.
[11] Environmental and Energy Study Institute. "Energy-Efficient Buildings: Using whole building design to reduce energy consumption in
homes and offices" (http:/ / www. eesi. org/ publications/ Fact Sheets/ EC_Fact_Sheets/ EE_Buildings. pdf). Eesi.org. . Retrieved 2010-07-16.
[12] "The impact of energy efficiency on peak demand" (http:/ / www. energydsm. com/ energy-efficiency). Energydsm.com. . Retrieved
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[13] CFL savings calculator (http:/ / www. green-energy-efficient-homes. com/ cfl-savings-calculator. html), Green Energy Efficient Homes
[14] Creating Energy Efficient Offices - Electrical Contractor Fit-out Article
[15] "Wireless smart meter by ecowizard" (http:/ / www. ecowizard. net/ ). Ecowizard.net. . Retrieved 2010-07-16.
[16] www.ashrae.org/members/doc/shapiro_8090903.pdf
[17] Environmental and Energy Study Institute. "Industrial Energy Efficiency: Using new technologies to reduce energy use in industry and
manufacturing" (http:/ / archives. eesi. org/ publications/ Fact Sheets/ EC_Fact_Sheets/ EE_Industry. pdf). Eesi.org. . Retrieved 2010-07-16.
[18] Richard C. Dorf, The Energy Factbook, McGraw-Hill, 1981
[19] "Tips to improve your Gas Mileage" (http:/ / www. fueleconomy. gov/ feg/ maintain. shtml). Fueleconomy.gov. . Retrieved 2010-07-16.
[20] Automotive Efficiency: Using technology to reduce energy use in passenger vehicles and light trucks (http:/ / www. eesi. org/ publications/
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[23] Dietz, T. et al. (2009). Household actions can provide a behavioral wedge to rapidly reduce U.S. carbon emissions (http:/ / www. pnas. org/
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[24] Diesendorf, Mark (2007). Greenhouse Solutions with Sustainable Energy, UNSW Press, p. 87.
[25] Breukers, Heiskanen, et al. (2009). Interaction schemes for successful demand-side management. Deliverable 5 of the CHANGING
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ukerc. ac. uk/ Downloads/ PDF/ 07/ 0710ReboundEffect/ 0710ReboundEffectReport. pdf) pp. v-vi.
[28] Greening, L; David L. Greene, Carmen Difiglio (2000). "Energy efficiency and consumption—the rebound effect—a survey.". Energy
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[29] Kenneth A. Small and Kurt Van Dender (September 21, 2005). "The Effect of Improved Fuel Economy on Vehicle Miles Traveled:
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energy/ eng-80. cfm?& CFID=11262148& CFTOKEN=7028302). . Retrieved 2007-11-21.
[31] Wackernagel, Mathis and William Rees, 1997, "Perpetual and structural barriers to investing in natural capital: economics from an
ecological footprint perspective." Ecological Economics, Vol.20 No.3 p3-24.
Renewable energy
Renewable energy is energy which comes from natural resources such
as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat, which are renewable
(naturally replenished). In 2008, about 19% of global final energy
consumption came from renewables, with 13% coming from traditional
biomass, which is mainly used for heating, and 3.2% from
hydroelectricity.[1] New renewables (small hydro, modern biomass,
wind, solar, geothermal, and biofuels) accounted for another 2.7% and
are growing very rapidly.[1] The share of renewables in electricity
generation is around 18%, with 15% of global electricity coming from
hydroelectricity and 3% from new renewables.[1] [2]
While many renewable energy projects are large-scale, renewable technologies are also suited to rural and remote
areas, where energy is
Renewable energy 486
Climate change concerns, coupled with high oil prices, peak oil, and US President Barack Obama speaks at the
increasing government support, are driving increasing renewable DeSoto Next Generation Solar Energy Center, in
energy legislation, incentives and commercialization.[14] New the USA.
Overview
Renewable energy flows involve natural phenomena such as sunlight,
wind, tides, plant growth, and geothermal heat, as the International
Energy Agency explains:[17]
Renewable energy is derived from natural processes that are
replenished constantly. In its various forms, it derives directly
from the sun, or from heat generated deep within the earth.
Included in the definition is electricity and heat generated from
solar, wind, ocean, hydropower, biomass, geothermal resources,
and biofuels and hydrogen derived from renewable resources.
2008 worldwide renewable-energy sources.
[16]
Renewable energy replaces conventional fuels in four distinct areas: Source: REN21
power generation, hot water/ space heating, transport fuels, and rural
(off-grid) energy services:[18]
• Power generation. Renewable energy provides 18 percent of total electricity generation worldwide. Renewable
power generators are spread across many countries, and wind power alone already provides a significant share of
electricity in some areas: for example, 14 percent in the U.S. state of Iowa, 40 percent in the northern German
state of Schleswig-Holstein, and 20 percent in Denmark. Some countries get most of their power from
renewables, including Iceland and Paraguay (100 percent), Norway (98 percent), Brazil (86 percent), Austria (62
percent), New Zealand (65 percent), and Sweden (54 percent).[19]
• Heating. Solar hot water makes an important contribution in many countries, most notably in China, which now
has 70 percent of the global total (180 GWth). Most of these systems are installed on multi-family apartment
buildings and meet a portion of the hot water needs of an estimated 50–60 million households in China.
Worldwide, total installed solar water heating systems meet a portion of the water heating needs of over 70
million households. The use of biomass for heating continues to grow as well. In Sweden, national use of biomass
energy has surpassed that of oil. Direct geothermal for heating is also growing rapidly.[19]
• Transport fuels. Renewable biofuels have contributed to a significant decline in oil consumption in the United
States since 2006. The 93 billion liters of biofuels produced worldwide in 2009 displaced the equivalent of an
estimated 68 billion liters of gasoline, equal to about 5 percent of world gasoline production.[19]
Renewable energy 487
Wind power
Airflows can be used to run wind turbines. Modern wind turbines
range from around 600 kW to 5 MW of rated power, although turbines
with rated output of 1.5–3 MW have become the most common for
commercial use; the power output of a turbine is a function of the cube
of the wind speed, so as wind speed increases, power output increases
dramatically.[20] Areas where winds are stronger and more constant,
such as offshore and high altitude sites, are preferred locations for
wind farms. Typical capacity factors are 20-40%, with values at the
upper end of the range in particularly favourable sites.[21] [22] Wind Turbines located outside of Palm Springs,
California
Globally, the long-term technical potential of wind energy is believed
to be five times total current global energy production, or 40 times current electricity demand. This could require
wind turbines to be installed over large areas, particularly in areas of higher wind resources. Offshore resources
experience mean wind speeds of ~90% greater than that of land, so offshore resources could contribute substantially
more energy.[23]
Hydropower
Energy in water can be harnessed and used. Since water is about 800
times denser than air,[24] [25] even a slow flowing stream of water, or
moderate sea swell, can yield considerable amounts of energy. There
are many forms of water energy:
• Hydroelectric energy is a term usually reserved for large-scale
hydroelectric dams. Examples are the Grand Coulee Dam in
Washington State and the Akosombo Dam in Ghana.
• Micro hydro systems are hydroelectric power installations that
typically produce up to 100 kW of power. They are often used in
water rich areas as a remote-area power supply (RAPS). There are Grand Coulee Dam is a hydroelectric gravity dam
on the Columbia River in the U.S. state of
many of these installations around the world, including several
Washington. The dam supplies four power
delivering around 50 kW in the Solomon Islands. stations with an installed capacity of 6,809 MW
• Run-of-the-river hydroelectricity systems derive kinetic energy and is the largest electric power-producing
facility in the United States.
from rivers and oceans without using a dam.
• Ocean energy describes all the technologies to harness energy from
the ocean and the sea. This includes marine current power, ocean thermal energy conversion, and tidal power.
Renewable energy 488
Solar energy
Solar energy is the energy derived from the sun through the form of
solar radiation. Solar powered electrical generation relies on
photovoltaics and heat engines. A partial list of other solar applications
includes space heating and cooling through solar architecture,
daylighting, solar hot water, solar cooking, and high temperature
process heat for industrial purposes.
Biomass
Monocrystalline solar cell.
Biomass (plant material) is a renewable energy source because the
energy it contains comes from the sun. Through the process of photosynthesis, plants capture the sun's energy. When
the plants are burnt, they release the sun's energy they contain. In this way, biomass functions as a sort of natural
battery for storing solar energy. As long as biomass is produced sustainably, with only as much used as is grown, the
battery will last indefinitely.[26]
In general there are two main approaches to using plants for energy production: growing plants specifically for
energy use, and using the residues from plants that are used for other things. The best approaches vary from region to
region according to climate, soils and geography.[26]
Biofuel
Liquid biofuel is usually either bioalcohol such as bioethanol or an oil
such as biodiesel.
Bioethanol is an alcohol made by fermenting the sugar components of
plant materials and it is made mostly from sugar and starch crops. With
advanced technology being developed, cellulosic biomass, such as
trees and grasses, are also used as feedstocks for ethanol production.
Ethanol can be used as a fuel for vehicles in its pure form, but it is
usually used as a gasoline additive to increase octane and improve
vehicle emissions. Bioethanol is widely used in the USA and in Brazil. Information on pump regarding ethanol fuel
blend up to 10%, California.
Biodiesel is made from vegetable oils, animal fats or recycled greases.
Biodiesel can be used as a fuel for vehicles in its pure form, but it is
usually used as a diesel additive to reduce levels of particulates, carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons from
diesel-powered vehicles. Biodiesel is produced from oils or fats using transesterification and is the most common
biofuel in Europe.
Biofuels provided 1.8% of the world's transport fuel in 2008.[27] According to the International Energy Agency,
biofuels have the potential to meet more than a quarter of world demand for transportation fuels by 2050.[28]
Renewable energy 489
Geothermal energy
Geothermal energy is energy obtained by tapping the heat of the earth
itself, both from kilometers deep into the Earth's crust in volcanically
active locations of the globe or from shallow depths, as in geothermal
heat pumps in most locations of the planet. It is expensive to build a
power station but operating costs are low resulting in low energy costs
for suitable sites. Ultimately, this energy derives from heat in the
Earth's core.
Growth of renewables
During the five-years from the end of 2004 through 2009, worldwide renewable energy capacity grew at rates of
10–60 percent annually for many technologies. For wind power and many other renewable technologies, growth
accelerated in 2009 relative to the previous four years.[18] More wind power capacity was added during 2009 than
any other renewable technology. However, grid-connected PV increased the fastest of all renewables technologies,
with a 60-percent annual average growth rate for the five-year period.[18]
Renewable energy 490
Investment in new renewable capacity (annual) 104 130 150 billion USD
Scientists have advanced a plan to power 100% of the world's energy with wind, hydroelectric, and solar power by
the year 2030,[32] [33] recommending renewable energy subsidies and a price on carbon reflecting its cost for flood
and related expenses.
Economic trends
All forms of energy are expensive, but as time progresses, renewable energy generally gets cheaper,[34] [35] while
fossil fuels generally get more expensive. Al Gore has explained that renewable energy technologies are declining in
price for three main reasons:[36]
First, once the renewable infrastructure is built, the fuel is free forever. Unlike carbon-based fuels, the
wind and the sun and the earth itself provide fuel that is free, in amounts that are effectively limitless.
Second, while fossil fuel technologies are more mature, renewable energy technologies are being rapidly
improved. So innovation and ingenuity give us the ability to constantly increase the efficiency of
renewable energy and continually reduce its cost.
Third, once the world makes a clear commitment to shifting toward renewable energy, the volume of
production will itself sharply reduce the cost of each windmill and each solar panel, while adding yet
more incentives for additional research and development to further speed up the innovation process.[36]
As of November 2010, the Roscoe Wind Farm (781 MW) is the world's largest wind farm.[40] As of September
2010, the Thanet Offshore Wind Project in United Kingdom is the largest offshore wind farm in the world at 300
MW, followed by Horns Rev II (209 MW) in Denmark. The United Kingdom is the world's leading generator of
offshore wind power, followed by Denmark.[41]
globally through 2014. Spain is the epicenter of solar thermal power development with 22 projects for 1,037 MW
under construction, all of which are projected to come online by the end of 2010.[42] In the United States, 5,600 MW
of solar thermal power projects have been announced.[43] In developing countries, three World Bank projects for
integrated solar thermal/combined-cycle gas-turbine power plants in Egypt, Mexico, and Morocco have been
approved.[44]
Photovoltaic market
Photovoltaic production has been increasing by an average of some 20
percent each year since 2002, making it a fast-growing energy
technology.[6] [45] At the end of 2009, the cumulative global PV
installations surpassed 21,000 megawatts.[6] [7]
As of November 2010, the largest photovoltaic (PV) power plants in
the world are the Finsterwalde Solar Park (Germany, 80.7 MW), Sarnia
Photovoltaic Power Plant (Canada, 80 MW), Olmedilla Photovoltaic
Park (Spain, 60 MW), the Strasskirchen Solar Park (Germany,
40 MW PV Array installed in Waldpolenz,
54 MW), the Lieberose Photovoltaic Park (Germany, 53 MW), and the Germany
Puertollano Photovoltaic Park (Spain, 50 MW).[46] Many of these
plants are integrated with agriculture and some use innovative tracking systems that follow the sun's daily path
across the sky to generate more electricity than conventional fixed-mounted systems. There are no fuel costs or
emissions during operation of the power stations.
Topaz Solar Farm is a proposed 550 MW solar photovoltaic power plant which is to be built northwest of California
Valley in the USA at a cost of over $1 billion.[47] High Plains Ranch is a proposed 250 MW solar photovoltaic
power plant which is to be built on the Carrizo Plain, northwest of California Valley.[48]
However, when it comes to renewable energy systems and PV, it is not just large systems that matter.
Building-integrated photovoltaics or "onsite" PV systems use existing land and structures and generate power close
to where it is consumed.[49]
Kenya is the world leader in the number of solar power systems installed per capita. More than 30,000 very small
solar panels, each producing 12 to 30 watts, are sold in Kenya annually.[63]
Renewable energy projects in many developing countries have demonstrated that renewable energy can directly
contribute to poverty alleviation by providing the energy needed for creating businesses and employment.
Renewable energy technologies can also make indirect contributions to alleviating poverty by providing energy for
cooking, space heating, and lighting. Renewable energy can also contribute to education, by providing electricity to
schools.[64]
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organization for promoting the
adoption of renewable energy worldwide. It aims to provide concrete policy advice and facilitate capacity building
and technology transfer. IRENA was formed on January 26, 2009, by 75 countries signing the charter of IRENA.[67]
As of March 2010, IRENA has 143 member states who all are considered as founding members, of which 14 have
also ratified the statute.[68]
Renewable energy policy targets exist in some 73 countries around the world, and public policies to promote
renewable energy use have become more common in recent years. At least 64 countries have some type of policy to
promote renewable power generation. Mandates for solar hot water in new construction are becoming more common
at both national and local levels. Mandates for blending biofuels into vehicle fuels have been enacted in 17
countries.[69]
Cellulosic ethanol
Companies such as Iogen, Broin, and Abengoa are building refineries that can process biomass and turn it into
ethanol, while companies such as Diversa, Novozymes, and Dyadic are producing enzymes which could enable a
cellulosic ethanol future. The shift from food crop feedstocks to waste residues and native grasses offers significant
opportunities for a range of players, from farmers to biotechnology firms, and from project developers to
investors.[71]
Ocean energy
Systems to harvest utility-scale electrical power from ocean waves have recently been gaining momentum as a viable
technology. The potential for this technology is considered promising, especially on west-facing coasts with latitudes
between 40 and 60 degrees:[74]
In the United Kingdom, for example, the Carbon Trust recently estimated the extent of the economically
viable offshore resource at 55 TWh per year, about 14% of current national demand. Across Europe, the
technologically achievable resource has been estimated to be at least 280 TWh per year. In 2003, the
U.S. Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) estimated the viable resource in the United States at 255
TWh per year (6% of demand).[74]
The world's first commercial tidal power station was installed in 2007 in the narrows of Strangford Lough in Ireland.
The 1.2 megawatt underwater tidal electricity generator, part of Northern Ireland's Environment & Renewable
Energy Fund scheme, takes advantage of the fast tidal flow (up to 4 metres per second) in the lough. Although the
generator is powerful enough to power a thousand homes, the turbine has minimal environmental impact, as it is
almost entirely submerged, and the rotors pose no danger to wildlife as they turn quite slowly.[75]
Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) uses the temperature difference that exists between deep and shallow
waters to run a heat engine.
Renewable energy 496
There are HDR and EGS systems currently being developed and tested
in France, Australia, Japan, Germany, the U.S. and Switzerland. The
largest EGS project in the world is a 25 megawatt demonstration plant
currently being developed in the Cooper Basin, Australia. The Cooper Enhanced geothermal system 1:Reservoir
Basin has the potential to generate 5,000–10,000 MW. 2:Pump house 3:Heat exchanger 4:Turbine hall
5:Production well 6:Injection well 7:Hot water to
district heating 8:Porous sediments
Artificial photosynthesis 9:Observation well 10:Crystalline bedrock
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Nuclear energy 500
Nuclear energy
Nuclear potential energy is the potential energy of the particles inside an atomic nucleus. The nuclear particles are
bound together by the strong nuclear force. Weak nuclear forces provide the potential energy for certain kinds of
radioactive decay, such as beta decay.
Nuclear particles like protons and neutrons are not destroyed in fission and fusion processes, but collections of them
have less mass than if they were individually free, and this mass difference is liberated as heat and radiation in
nuclear reactions (the heat and radiation have the missing mass, but it often escapes from the system, where it is not
measured). The energy from the Sun is an example of this form of energy conversion. In the Sun, the process of
hydrogen fusion converts about 4 million tonnes of solar matter per second into electromagnetic energy, which is
radiated into space.
An integrated pilot-scale CCS power plant was to begin operating in September 2008 in the eastern German power
plant Schwarze Pumpe run by utility Vattenfall, in the hope of answering questions about technological feasibility
and economic efficiency. CCS applied to a modern conventional power plant could reduce CO2 emissions to the
atmosphere by approximately 80-90% compared to a plant without CCS.[2] The IPCC estimates that the economic
potential of CCS could be between 10% and 55% of the total carbon mitigation effort until year 2100.[2]
Capturing and compressing CO2 requires much energy and would increase the fuel needs of a coal-fired plant with
CCS by 25%-40%.[2] These and other system costs are estimated to increase the cost of energy from a new power
plant with CCS by 21-91%.[2] These estimates apply to purpose-built plants near a storage location; applying the
technology to preexisting plants or plants far from a storage location would be more expensive. Recent industry
reports suggest that with successful research, development and deployment (RD&D), sequestered coal-based
electricity generation in 2025 will cost less than unsequestered coal-based electricity generation today.[3]
Carbon capture and storage 501
Storage of the CO2 is envisaged either in deep geological formations, in deep ocean masses, or in the form of mineral
carbonates. In the case of deep ocean storage, there is a risk of greatly increasing the problem of ocean acidification,
an issue that also stems from the excess of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere and oceans. Geological
formations are currently considered the most promising sequestration sites. The National Energy Technology
Laboratory (NETL) reported that North America has enough storage capacity at its current rate of production for
more than 900 years worth of carbon dioxide.[4] A general problem is that long term predictions about submarine or
underground storage security are very difficult and uncertain, and there is still the risk that CO2 might leak from the
storage into the atmosphere.
Capture
Capturing CO2 might be applied to large point sources, such as large fossil fuel or biomass energy facilities,
industries with major CO2 emissions, natural gas processing, synthetic fuel plants and fossil fuel-based hydrogen
production plants. Air capture is also possible. Air away from the point source also contains oxygen, however, and
so capturing and scrubbing the CO2 from the air, and then storing the CO2, could slow down the oxygen cycle in the
biosphere.[5]
Concentrated CO2 from the combustion of coal in oxygen is relatively pure, and could be directly processed. In other
instances, especially with air capture, a scrubbing process would be needed.
Plants that produce ethanol by fermentation generate cool, essentially pure CO2 that can be pumped underground.[6]
Fermentation produces slightly less CO2 than ethanol by weight. World ethanol production in 2008 is expected to be
about 16 billion gallons or 48 million tonnes.[7]
Broadly, three different types of technologies for scrubbing exist: post-combustion, pre-combustion, and oxyfuel
combustion:
• In post combustion capture, the CO2 is removed after combustion of the fossil fuel — this is the scheme that
would be applied to fossil-fuel burning power plants. Here, carbon dioxide is captured from flue gases at power
stations or other large point sources. The technology is well understood and is currently used in other industrial
applications, although not at the same scale as might be required in a commercial scale power station.
• The technology for pre-combustion is widely applied in fertilizer, chemical, gaseous fuel (H2, CH4), and power
production.[8] In these cases, the fossil fuel is partially oxidized, for instance in a gasifier. The resulting syngas
(CO and H2O) is shifted into CO2 and more H2. The resulting CO2 can be captured from a relatively pure exhaust
stream. The H2 can now be used as fuel; the carbon dioxide is removed before combustion takes place. There are
several advantages and disadvantages when compared to conventional post combustion carbon dioxide capture.[9]
[10]
The CO2 is removed after combustion of fossil fuels, but before the flue gas is expanded to atmospheric
pressure. This scheme is applied to new fossil fuel burning power plants, or to existing plants where re-powering
is an option. The capture before expansion, i.e. from pressurized gas, is standard in almost all industrial CO2
capture processes, at the same scale as will be required for utility power plants.[11] [12]
• In oxy-fuel combustion[13] the fuel is burned in oxygen instead of air. To limit the resulting flame temperatures to
levels common during conventional combustion, cooled flue gas is recirculated and injected into the combustion
chamber. The flue gas consists of mainly carbon dioxide and water vapor, the latter of which is condensed
through cooling. The result is an almost pure carbon dioxide stream that can be transported to the sequestration
site and stored. Power plant processes based on oxyfuel combustion are sometimes referred to as "zero emission"
cycles, because the CO2 stored is not a fraction removed from the flue gas stream (as in the cases of pre- and
post-combustion capture) but the flue gas stream itself. A certain fraction of the CO2 generated during combustion
will inevitably end up in the condensed water. To warrant the label "zero emission" the water would thus have to
be treated or disposed of appropriately. The technique is promising, but the initial air separation step demands a
lot of energy.
Carbon capture and storage 502
An alternate method which is under development, is chemical looping combustion (CLC). Chemical looping uses a
metal oxide as a solid oxygen carrier. Metal oxide particles react with a solid, liquid or gaseous fuel in a fluidized
bed combustor, producing solid metal particles and a mixture of carbon dioxide and water vapor. The water vapor is
condensed, leaving pure carbon dioxide which can then be sequestered. The solid metal particles are circulated to
another fluidized bed where they react with air, producing heat and regenerating metal oxide particles that are
recirculated to the fluidized bed combustor. A variant of chemical looping is calcium looping, which uses the
alternating carbonation and then calcination of a calcium oxide based carrier as a means of capturing CO2.
A few engineering proposals have been made for the more difficult task of capturing CO2 directly from the air, but
work in this area is still in its infancy. Capture costs are estimated to be higher than from point sources, but may be
feasible for dealing with emissions from diffuse sources such as automobiles and aircraft.[14] The theoretically
required energy for air capture is only slightly more than for capture from point sources. The additional costs come
from the devices that use the natural air flow. Global Research Technologies demonstrated a pre-prototype of air
capture technology in 2007.[15]
Removing CO2 from the atmosphere is a form of geoengineering by greenhouse gas remediation. Techniques of this
type have received widespread media coverage as they offer the promise of a comprehensive solution to global
warming if they can be coupled with effective carbon sequestration technologies.
It is more usual to see such techniques proposed for air capture, than for flue gas treatment. Carbon dioxide capture
and storage is more commonly proposed on plants burning coal in oxygen extracted from the air, which means the
CO2 is highly concentrated and no scrubbing process is necessary. According to the Wallula Energy Resource Center
in Washington state, by gasifying coal, it is possible to capture approximately 65% of carbon dioxide embedded in it
and sequester it in a solid form.[16]
Transport
After capture, the CO2 would have to be transported to suitable storage sites. This is done by pipeline, which is
generally the cheapest form of transport. In 2008, there were approximately 5,800 km of CO2 pipelines in the United
States, used to transport CO2 to oil production fields where it is then injected into older fields to extract oil. The
injection of CO2 to produce oil is generally called Enhanced Oil Recovery or EOR. In addition, there are several pilot
programs in various stages to test the long-term storage of CO2 in non-oil producing geologic formations.
According to the Congressional Research Service, "There are important unanswered questions about pipeline
network requirements, economic regulation, utility cost recovery, regulatory classification of CO2 itself, and pipeline
safety. Furthermore, because CO2 pipelines for enhanced oil recovery are already in use today, policy decisions
affecting CO2 pipelines take on an urgency that is unrecognized by many. Federal classification of CO2 as both a
commodity (by the Bureau of Land Management) and as a pollutant (by the Environmental Protection Agency)
could potentially create an immediate conflict which may need to be addressed not only for the sake of future CCS
implementation, but also to ensure consistency of future CCS with CO2 pipeline operations today."[17] [18]
A COA conveyor belt system or ship could also be utilized for transport. These methods are currently used for
transporting CO2 for other applications.
Carbon capture and storage 503
Sequestration
Various forms have been conceived for permanent storage of CO2. These forms include gaseous storage in various
deep geological formations (including saline formations and exhausted gas fields), liquid storage in the ocean, and
solid storage by reaction of CO2 with metal oxides to produce stable carbonates.
Geological storage
Also known as geo-sequestration, this method involves injecting carbon dioxide, generally in supercritical form,
directly into underground geological formations. Oil fields, gas fields, saline formations, unmineable coal seams, and
saline-filled basalt formations have been suggested as storage sites. Various physical (e.g., highly impermeable
caprock) and geochemical trapping mechanisms would prevent the CO2 from escaping to the surface.
CO2 is sometimes injected into declining oil fields to increase oil recovery. Approximately 30 to 50 million metric
tonnes of CO2 are injected annually in the United States into declining oil fields.[19] This option is attractive because
the geology of hydrocarbon reservoirs is generally well understood and storage costs may be partly offset by the sale
of additional oil that is recovered. Disadvantages of old oil fields are their geographic distribution and their limited
capacity, as well as the fact that subsequent burning of the additional oil so recovered will offset much or all of the
reduction in CO2 emissions.
Unmineable coal seams can be used to store CO2 because the CO2 molecules attach to the surface of coal. The
technical feasibility, however, depends on the permeability of the coal bed. In the process of absorption the coal
releases previously absorbed methane, and the methane can be recovered (enhanced coal bed methane recovery). The
sale of the methane can be used to offset a portion of the cost of the CO2 storage. Burning the resultant methane,
however, would produce CO2, which would negate some of the benefit of sequestering the original CO2.
Saline formations contain highly mineralized brines, and have so far been considered of no benefit to humans. Saline
aquifers have been used for storage of chemical waste in a few cases. The main advantage of saline aquifers is their
large potential storage volume and their common occurrence. The major disadvantage of saline aquifers is that
relatively little is known about them, especially compared to oil fields. To keep the cost of storage acceptable, the
geophysical exploration may be limited, resulting in larger uncertainty about the aquifer structure. Unlike storage in
oil fields or coal beds, no side product will offset the storage cost. Leakage of CO2 back into the atmosphere may be
a problem in saline aquifer storage. Current research shows, however, that several trapping mechanisms immobilize
the CO2 underground, reducing the risk of leakage.
For well-selected, designed and managed geological storage sites, the IPCC estimates that CO2 could be trapped for
millions of years, and the sites are likely to retain over 99% of the injected CO2 over 1,000 years. In 2009 it was
reported that scientists had mapped 6000 square miles (16000 km2) of rock formations in the U.S. that could be used
to store 500 years' worth of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions.[20]
Ocean storage
Another proposed form of carbon storage is in the oceans. Several concepts have been proposed:
• 'Dissolution' injects CO2 by ship or pipeline into the ocean water column at depths of 1000 – 3000 m, forming an
upward-plume, and the CO2 subsequently dissolves in seawater.
• Through 'lake' deposits, by injecting CO2 directly into the sea at depths greater than 3000 m, where high-pressure
liquefies CO2, making it denser than water, and forms a downward-plume that may accumulate on the sea floor as
a 'lake', and is expected to delay dissolution of CO2 into the ocean and atmosphere, possibly for millennia.
• Use a chemical reaction to combine CO2 with a carbonate mineral (such as limestone) to form bicarbonate(s), for
example: CO2 + CaCO3 + H2O → Ca(HCO3)2(aq). However, the aqueous bicarbonate solution must not be
allowed to dry out, or else the reaction will reverse.
Carbon capture and storage 504
• Store the CO2 in solid clathrate hydrates already existing on the ocean floor,[21] [22] or growing more solid
clathrate.[23]
The environmental effects of oceanic storage are generally negative, and poorly understood. Large concentrations of
CO2 could kill ocean organisms, but another problem is that dissolved CO2 would eventually equilibrate with the
atmosphere, so the storage would not be permanent. In addition, as part of the CO2 reacts with the water to form
carbonic acid, H2CO3, the acidity of the ocean water increases. The resulting environmental effects on benthic life
forms of the bathypelagic, abyssopelagic and hadopelagic zones are poorly understood. Even though life appears to
be rather sparse in the deep ocean basins, energy and chemical effects in these deep basins could have far reaching
implications. Much more work is needed to define the extent of the potential problems.
The time it takes water in the deeper oceans to circulate to the surface has been estimated to be approximately 1600
years, depending on currents and other changing conditions. Costs for deep ocean disposal of liquid CO2 are
estimated at US$40−80/tonne of CO2 (2002 USD). This figure covers the cost of sequestration at the power plant
and naval transport to the disposal site.[2]
The bicarbonate approach would reduce the pH effects and enhance the retention of CO2 in the ocean, but this would
also increase the costs and other environmental effects.
An additional method of long term ocean based sequestration is to gather crop residue such as corn stalks or excess
hay into large weighted bales of biomass and deposit it in the alluvial fan areas of the deep ocean basin. Dropping
these residues in alluvial fans would cause the residues to be quickly buried in silt on the sea floor, sequestering the
biomass for very long time spans. Alluvial fans exist in all of the world's oceans and seas where river deltas fall off
the edge of the continental shelf, such as the Mississippi alluvial fan in the Gulf of Mexico and the Nile alluvial fan
in the Mediterranean Sea.
Unfortunately, biomass and crop residues form an extremely important and valuable component of topsoil and
sustainable agriculture. Removing them from the terrestrial equation is fraught with problems. If fertilized crops
were used, it would exacerbate nutrient depletion and increase dependence on chemical fertilizers and, therefore,
petrochemicals, thus defeating the original intentions of reducing CO2 in the atmosphere. However it is more likely
that less-expensive cellulosic energy-crops would be used, and these are typically unfertilized; although, it is likely
that petrochemicals would still be used for harvesting and transport.
Mineral storage
In this process, CO2 is exothermically reacted with available metal oxides, which in turn produces stable carbonates.
This process occurs naturally over many years and is responsible for a great amount of surface limestone. The
reaction rate can be made faster, for example by reacting at higher temperatures and/or pressures, or by pre-treatment
of the minerals, although this method can require additional energy. The IPCC estimates that a power plant equipped
with CCS using mineral storage will need 60-180% more energy than a power plant without CCS.[2]
The economics of mineral carbonation at scale are now being tested in a world first pilot plant project based in
Newcastle, Australia. New techniques for mineral activation and reaction have been developed the GreenMag Group
and the University of Newcastle and funded by the New South Wales and Australian Governments to be operational
by 2013.[24]
A study on mineral sequestration in the US states:
Carbon sequestration by reacting naturally occurring Mg and Ca containing minerals with CO2 to form
carbonates has many unique advantages. Most notabl[e] is the fact that carbonates have a lower energy
state than CO2, which is why mineral carbonation is thermodynamically favorable and occurs naturally
(e.g., the weathering of rock over geologic time periods). Secondly, the raw materials such as
magnesium based minerals are abundant. Finally, the produced carbonates are unarguably stable and
thus re-release of CO2 into the atmosphere is not an issue. However, conventional carbonation pathways
Carbon capture and storage 505
are slow under ambient temperatures and pressures. The significant challenge being addressed by this
effort is to identify an industrially and environmentally viable carbonation route that will allow mineral
sequestration to be implemented with acceptable economics.[25]
The following table lists principal metal oxides of Earth's Crust. Theoretically, up to 22% of this mineral mass is able
to form carbonates.
SiO2 59.71
Al2O3 15.41
Leakage
A major concern with CCS is whether leakage of stored CO2 will
compromise CCS as a climate change mitigation option. For
well-selected, designed and managed geological storage sites, IPCC
estimates that risks are comparable to those associated with current
hydrocarbon activity. CO2 could be trapped for millions of years, and
although some leakage occurs upwards through the soil, well selected
storage sites are likely to retain over 99% of the injected CO2 over
1000 years. Leakage through the injection pipe is a greater risk.[26]
natural disaster.
For ocean storage, the retention of CO2 would depend on the depth. The IPCC estimates 30–85% of the sequestered
carbon dioxide would be retained after 500 years for depths 1000–3000 m. Mineral storage is not regarded as having
any risks of leakage. The IPCC recommends that limits be set to the amount of leakage that can take place. This
might rule out deep ocean storage as an option.
It should be noted that at the conditions of the deeper oceans, (about 400 bar or 40 MPa, 280 K) water–CO2(l)
mixing is very low (where carbonate formation/acidification is the rate limiting step), but the formation of water-CO2
hydrates, a kind of solid water cage that surrounds the CO2, is favorable.
To further investigate the safety of CO2 sequestration, Norway's Sleipner gas field can be studied, as it is the oldest
plant that stores CO2 on an industrial scale. According to an environmental assessment of the gas field which was
conducted after ten years of operation, the author affirmed that geosequestration of CO2 was the most definite form
of permanent geological storage of CO2:
Available geological information shows absence of major tectonic events after the deposition of the
Utsira formation [saline reservoir]. This implies that the geological environment is tectonically stable
and a site suitable for carbon dioxide storage. The solubility trapping [is] the most permanent and secure
form of geological storage.[28]
In March 2009 StatoilHydro issued a study showing the slow spread of CO2 in the formation after more than 10
years operation.[29]
Phase I of the Weyburn-Midale Carbon Dioxide Project in Weyburn, Saskatchewan, Canada has determined that the
likelihood of stored CO2 release is less than one percent in 5,000 years.[30] A January 2011 report, however, claimed
evidence of leakage in land above that project.[31] This report was strongly refuted by the IEAGHG Weyburn-Midale
CO2 Monitoring and Storage Project, which issued an eight page analysis of the study, claiming that it showed no
evidence of leakage from the reservoir.[32]
Detailed geological histories of basins are required and should utilize the multi-billion dollar petroleum seismic data
sets to decrease the risk associated with fault stability. On injection of CO2 into the earth, there is a major pressure
front that can break the seal and make faults unstable. The Gippsland Basin in Australia has a 3D-GEO seismic
megavolume that consists of 30+ 3D seismic volumes that have been merged. Such data-sets can image faults at a
resolution of 15 meters over an area 62 miles (100 km) by 62 miles (100 km). By mid 2010 the first full geological
study of the Gippsland Basin will become openfile by 3D-GEO [33], making CCS fault risk workflow available with
the associated data that constrains it. In other basins around the world, such studies are not available and can only be
bought at a price tag of greater than a million dollars.
The liability of potential leak(s) is one of the largest barriers to large-scale CCS.
Carbon capture and storage 507
The Bio CCS Algal Synthesis process holds a number of key advantages over conventional CCS in that it is based on
well established earth science photosynthesis: the technology is entirely retrofittable and collocated with the emitter,
and the capital outlays offer a return upon investment due to the high value commodities produced (oil for plastics,
fuel and feed). Carbon cature and storage, on the other hand, represents substantial logistical difficulty, very high
cost without any financial return and extremely limited applicability to the bulk of existing major industrial emitters.
Another advantage of Bio CCS Algal Synthesis is that it offers consumption of the full cocktail of greenhouse gases
normally found in smokestack emissions — not just CO2 as is the case with most CCS proposals.
Bio CCS Algal Synthesis test facilities are being trialed at Australia's three largest coal fired power stations (Tarong,
Queensland; Eraring, NSW; Loy Yang, Victoria) using piped pre-emission smokestack CO2 (and other greenhouse
gases) as feedstock to grow oil-rich algal biomass in enclosed membranes for the production of plastics, transport
fuel and nutritious animal feed.
Another potentially useful way of dealing with industrial sources of CO2 is to convert it into hydrocarbons where it
can be stored or reused as fuel or to make plastics. There are a number of projects investigating this possibility.[34]
Carbon dioxide scrubbing variants exist based on potassium carbonate which can be used to create liquid fuels.[35]
Although the creation of fuel from atmospheric CO2 is not a geoengineering technique, nor does it actually function
as greenhouse gas remediation, it nevertheless is potentially very useful in the creation of a low carbon economy, as
transport fuels, especially aviation fuel, are currently hard to make other than by using fossil fuels. While electric car
technology is widely available, and can be used with renewable energy for carbon neutral driving, there are no
electric jet airliners available, nor are there likely to be in the foreseeable future. The electric aircraft built to date
have been mostly demonstration aircraft with modest performance reflecting the low specific energy of available
storage batteries. For more on the energy requirements of flight including discussion of the critical factor of the
specific energy of aircraft fuel see David J.C. MacKay's appendix C.[36]
Carbon capture and storage 508
Industrial-scale storage
As of 2007, four industrial-scale storage projects are in operation. Sleipner is the oldest project, having started in
1996, and is located in the North Sea where Norway's Statoil strips carbon dioxide from natural gas with amine
solvents.The reclaimed CO2 is then disposed of in a deep saline aquifer.[38] The carbon dioxide is a waste product of
the field's natural gas production; the gas contains 9% more CO2 than is allowed into the natural gas distribution
network. Storing it underground avoids this problem and saves Statoil hundreds of millions of euro in avoided
carbon taxes. Since 1996, Sleipner has stored about one million tonnes of CO2 a year. A second project in the
Snøhvit gas field, located in the Barents Sea, stores 700,000 tonnes per year.[39]
The Weyburn-Midale CO2 Project is currently the world's largest carbon capture and storage project.[39] Started in
2000, Weyburn-Midale is located on an oil reservoir discovered in 1954 in southeastern Saskatchewan, Canada. The
CO2 for this project is captured at Dakota Gasification Company's Great Plains Synfuels Plant in Beulah, North
Dakota,[40] [41] which has produced methane from coal for more than 30 years. A subsidiary of Basin Electric Power
Cooperative, Dakota Gasification Company captures roughly 50 percent of the CO2 produced by the Synfuels
Plant.[40] At Weyburn, the CO2 is used for enhanced oil recovery with an injection rate of about 1.5 million tonnes
per year. The first phase finished in 2004, and demonstrated that CO2 can be stored underground at the site safely
and indefinitely. The second phase, expected to last until 2009, is investigating how the technology can be expanded
on a larger scale.[42]
The fourth site is In Salah, which, like Sleipner and Snøhvit, is a natural gas reservoir located in In Salah, Algeria.
The CO2 is separated from the natural gas and re-injected into the subsurface at a rate of about 1.2 million tonnes per
year.[43]
Carbon capture and storage 509
Canada
Canada has invested approximately $3.4 billion in Carbon Capture and Storage development. This includes Alberta’s
$2 billion announced in July 2008, and a combined total of $1.4 billion from the federal government’s 2008 and 2009
budgets.[44] In July 2008, the Government of Alberta announced a $2 billion investment in four large-scale carbon
capture and storage projects.[45] In 2009, letters of intent were signed with four project proponents and grant
agreement negotiations are ongoing. It is expected the grant agreements will be signed in 2010. These proposed
projects selected include:
1. Enhance Energy's Alberta CO2 Trunkline — capture from a fertilizer plant and upgrader, 240 kilometres (150 mi)
kilometre pipeline transportation and injection for enhanced oil recovery totaling approximately 1.7 million
tonnes of CO2 per year.[46]
2. Swan Hills Synfuels — capture from in-situ coal gasification (ISCG) project with injection for enhanced oil
recovery totaling 1.3M tonnes CO2 per year.[47]
3. Shell's Quest Project — capture from an oil sands upgrader with injection for storage totaling 1M tonnes CO2 per
year.[48]
4. TransAlta's Pioneer Project — a coal fired generation station with injection for storage totaling 1 million tonnes
of CO2 per year.[49]
Two additional projects have been proposed but are still securing funding: Spectra Energy's Fort Nelson Project
(British Columbia) and Sask Power's Boundary Dam Project (Saskatchewan) [50] Additionally, there are various pilot
projects occurring in Canada including the Alberta Saline Aquifer Project (ASAP), Husky Upgrader and Ethanol
Plant pilot, Heartland Area Redwater Project (HARP), Wabamun Area Sequestration Project(WASP), and
Aquistore.[51]
Another Canadian initiative is the Integrated CO2 Network (ICO2N), a group of industry participants providing a
framework for carbon capture and storage development in Canada.[52] Other Canadian organizations related to CCS
include CCS 101, Carbon Management Canada, IPAC CO2, and the Canadian Clean Power Coalition.[53]
Italy
A project exists in Porto Tolle, Italy, where a coal-fired energy plant of more than 2,500 megawatts (MW), planned
to be set up next year, will utilize a CCS unit for abating CO2 emissions coming from a 300 MW power production
line. See: Key facts: Porto Tolle [54].[55]
Netherlands
In the Netherlands, a 68 megawatt oxyfuel plant ("Zero Emission Power Plant") was being planned to be operational
in 2009.[56] This project was later canceled.
Carbon capture and storage 510
Norway
In Norway, the CO2 Technology Centre (TCM) at Mongstad began construction in 2009, and is scheduled for
completion early in 2012. It will include two capture technology plants (one advanced amine and one chilled
ammonia), both capturing fluegas from two sources. In addition, it will also include a gas fired power plant and
refinery cracker fluegas (similar to coal-fired power plant fluegas). Total capacity is 100,000 tons of CO2 per year.
[57]
Poland
In Belchatów, Poland,[55] a lignite-fired energy plant of more than 858 MW is planned to be in operation in 2013.
See: Key facts: Belchatów [58].
United States
In October 2007, the Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas at Austin received a 10-year, $38
million subcontract to conduct the first intensively monitored long-term project in the United States studying the
feasibility of injecting a large volume of CO2 for underground storage.[59] The project is a research program of the
Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (SECARB), funded by the National Energy Technology
Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).
The SECARB partnership will demonstrate CO2 injection rate and storage capacity in the Tuscaloosa-Woodbine
geologic system that stretches from Texas to Florida. The region has the potential to store more than 200 billion tons
of CO2 from major point sources in the region, equal to about 33 years of overall U.S. emissions at present rates.
Beginning in fall 2007, the project will inject CO2 at the rate of one million tons per year, for up to 1.5 years, into
brine up to 10,000 feet (3,000 m) below the land surface near the Cranfield oil field, which lays about 15 miles
(25 km) east of Natchez, Mississippi. Experimental equipment will measure the ability of the subsurface to accept
and retain CO2.
Currently, the United States government has approved the construction of what is touted as the world's first CCS
power plant, FutureGen. On January 29, 2008, however, the Department of Energy announced it was recasting the
FutureGen project and on June 24, 2008, DoE published a funding opportunity announcement seeking proposals for
an IGCC project, with integrated CCS, of at least 250MW.[60]
Examples of carbon sequestration at an existing US coal plant can be found at utility company Luminant's pilot
version at its Big Brown Steam Electric Station in Fairfield, Texas. This system is converting carbon from
smokestacks into baking soda. Skyonic plans to circumvent storage problems of liquid CO2 by storing baking soda in
mines, landfills, or simply to be sold as industrial or food grade baking soda.[61] Green Fuel Technologies is piloting
and implementing algae based carbon capture, circumventing storage issues by then converting algae into fuel or
feed.[62]
In November 2008, the DOE awarded a $66.9 million eight-year grant to a research partnership headed by Montana
State University to demonstrate that underground geologic formations “can store huge volumes of carbon dioxide
economically, safely and permanently.” Researchers under the Big Sky Regional Carbon Sequestration Project plan
to inject up to one million tonnes of CO2 into sandstone beneath southwestern Wyoming.[63]
In the United States, four different synthetic fuel projects are moving forward which have publicly announced plans
to incorporate carbon capture and storage:
1. American Clean Coal Fuels, in their Illinois Clean Fuels (ICF) project, is developing a 30,000 barrel per day
biomass and coal to liquids project in Oakland, Illinois, which will market the CO2 created at the plant for
enhanced oil recovery applications. The project is expected to come online in mid-2013. By combining
sequestration and biomass feedstocks, the ICF project will achieve dramatic reductions in the life-cycle carbon
footprint of the fuels they produce. If sufficient biomass is used, the plant should have the capability to go
Carbon capture and storage 511
life-cycle carbon negative, meaning that effectively, for each gallon of their fuel that is used, carbon is pulled out
of the air, and put into the ground.[64]
1. Baard Energy, in their Ohio River Clean Fuels project, is developing a 53,000 BPD coal and biomass to liquids
project, which has announced plans to market the plant’s CO2 for enhanced oil recovery.[65]
1. Rentech is developing a 29,600 barrel per day coal and biomass to liquids plant in Natchez, Mississippi, which
will market the plant’s CO2 for enhanced oil recovery. The first phase of the project is expected in 2011.[66]
1. DKRW is developing a 15,000-20,000 barrel per day coal to liquids plant in Medicine Bow, Wyoming, which
will market its plant’s CO2 for enhanced oil recovery. The project is expected to begin operation in 2013.[67]
In October 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy awarded grants to twelve Industrial Carbon Capture and Storage
(ICCS) projects to conduct a Phase 1 feasibility study.[68] The DOE plans to select 3 to 4 of those projects to proceed
into Phase 2, design and construction, with operational startup to occur by 2015. Battelle Memorial Institute, Pacific
Northwest Division, Boise, Inc., and Fluor Corporation are studying a CCS system for capture and storage of CO2
emissions associated with the pulp and paper production industry. The site of the study is the Boise White Paper
L.L.C. paper mill located near the township of Wallula in Southeastern Washington State. The plant generates
approximately 1.2 MMT of CO2 annually from a set of three recovery boilers that are mainly fired with black liquor,
a recycled byproduct formed during the pulping of wood for paper-making. Fluor Corporation will design a
customized version of their Econamine Plus carbon capture technology. The Fluor system also will be designed to
remove residual quantities of remnant air pollutants from stack gases as part of the CO2 capture process. Battelle is
leading preparation of an Environmental Information Volume (EIV) for the entire project, including geologic storage
of the captured CO2 in deep flood basalt formations that exist in the greater region. The EIV will describe the
necessary site characterization work, sequestration system infrastructure, and monitoring program to support
permanent sequestration of the CO2 captured at the plant.
In addition to individual carbon capture and sequestration projects, there are a number of U.S. programs designed to
research, develop, and deploy CCS technologies on a broad scale. These include the National Energy Technology
Laboratory’s (NETL) Carbon Sequestration Program, regional carbon sequestration partnerships and the Carbon
Sequestration Leadership Forum (CSLF).[69] [70]
United Kingdom
The government of the United Kingdom has launched a tender process for a CCS demonstration project. The project
will use post-combustion technology on coal-fired power generation at 300-400 megawatts or equivalent. The
project aims to be operational by 2014.[71] [72] The Government announced in June 2008 that four companies had
prequalified for the following stages of the competition: BP Alternative Energy International Limited, EON UK Plc,
Peel Power Limited and Scottish Power Generation Limited.[73] BP has subsequently withdrawn from the
competition, claiming it could not find a power generator partner, and RWE npower is seeking a judicial review of
the process after it did not qualify.[74]
Doosan Babcock has modified their Clean Combustion Test Facility (CCTF) in Renfrew, Scotland to create the
largest Oxyfuel test facility currently in the world. Oxyfuel firing on pulverized coal with recycled flue gas
demonstrates the operation of a full scale 40 MW burner for use in coal-fired boilers. Sponsors of the project include
the UK Department for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR,) as well as a group of industrial
sponsors and university partners comprising Scottish and Southern Energy (Prime Sponsor), E.ON UK PLC, Drax
Power Limited, ScottishPower, EDF Energy, Dong Energy Generation, Air Products Plc (Sponsors), and Imperial
College and University of Nottingham (University Partners).[75]
In August 2010, clean energy new-comers B9 Coal announced their intention to join the competition with a CCS
project in the North East of England. The proposal combines alkaline fuel cells with underground coal gasification
for upwards of 90% carbon capture as a by-product. It is the only project of its kind to join the competition, using
coal reserves in an environmentally friendly and efficient way.
Carbon capture and storage 512
China
In Beijing, as of 2009, one major power plant is capturing and re-selling a small fraction of its CO2 emissions. [76]
Germany
The German industrial area of Schwarze Pumpe, about 4 kilometres (2.5 mi) south of the city of Spremberg, is home
to the world's first CCS coal plant. The mini pilot plant is run by an Alstom-built oxy-fuel boiler and is also equipped
with a flue gas cleaning facility to remove fly ash and sulphur dioxide. The Swedish company Vattenfall AB
invested some 70 million Euros in the two year project, which began operation September 9, 2008. The power plant,
which is rated at 30 megawatts, is a pilot project to serve as a prototype for future full-scale power plants.[77] [78] 240
tonnes a day of CO2 are being trucked 350 kilometers (210 miles) where it will be injected into an empty gas field.
Germany's BUND group called it a "fig leaf". For each tonne of coal burned, 3.6 tonnes of carbon dioxide is
produced.[79]
German utility RWE operates a pilot-scale CO2 scrubber at the lignite-fired Niederaußem power station built in
cooperation with BASF (supplier of detergent) and Linde engineering.[80]
In Jänschwalde, Germany,[81] a pla is in the works for an Oxyfuel boiler, rated at 650 thermal MW (around 250
electric MW), which is about 20 times more than Vattenfall's 30 MW pilot plant under construction, and compares to
today’s largest Oxyfuel test rigs of 0.5 MW. Post-combustion capture technology will also be demonstrated at
Jänschwalde. See: Key facts: Jänschwalde [82].
Australia
The Federal Resources and Energy Minister Martin Ferguson opened the first geosequestration project in the
southern hemisphere in April 2008. The demonstration plant is near Nirranda South in South Western Victoria.
(35°19′S 149°08′E) The plant is owned by the Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies
(CO2CRC). CO2CRC is a non profit research collaboration supported by government and industry. The project has
stored and monitored over 65,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide-rich gas which was extracted from a natural gas reservoir
via a well, compressed and piped 2.25 km to a new well. There the gas has been injected into a depleted natural gas
reservoir approximately two kilometers below the surface.[83] [84] The project has moved to a second stage and is
investigating carbon dioxide trapping in a saline aquifer 1500 meters below the surface. The Otway Project is a
research and demonstration project, focused on comprehensive monitoring and verification.[85]
This plant does not propose to capture CO2 from coal fired power generation, though two CO2CRC demonstration
projects at a Victorian power station and research gasifier are demonstrating solvent, membrane, and adsorbent
capture technologies from coal combustion.[86] Currently, only small-scale projects are storing CO2 stripped from the
products of combustion of coal burnt for electricity generation at coal fired power stations.[87] Work currently being
carried out by the GreenMag Group and the University of Newcastle and funded by the New South Wales and
Australian Governments and industry intends to have a working mineral carbonation pilot plant in operation by
2013.[24]
The use of CCS can reduce CO2 emissions from the stacks of coal power plants by 85-90% or more, but it has no
effect on CO2 emissions due to the mining and transport of coal. It will actually "increase such emissions and of air
pollutants per unit of net delivered power and will increase all ecological, land-use, air-pollution, and water-pollution
impacts from coal mining, transport, and processing, because the CCS system requires 25% more energy, thus 25%
more coal combustion, than does a system without CCS".[91]
Another concern regards the permanence of storage schemes. It is claimed that safe and permanent storage of CO2
cannot be guaranteed and that even very low leakage rates could undermine any climate mitigation effect.[88] The
IPCC concludes, however,, that the proportion of CO2 retained in appropriately selected and managed geological
reservoirs is very likely to exceed 99% over 100 years and is likely to exceed 99% over 1,000 years.[2]
Finally, there is the issue of cost. Greenpeace claims that CCS could lead to a doubling of plant costs.[88] CCS
though may remain economically attractive in comparison to other forms of low carbon electricity generation.[92] It
is also claimed by opponents to CCS that money spent on CCS will divert investments away from other solutions to
climate change.
Cost
Although the processes involved in CCS have been demonstrated in other industrial applications, no commercial
scale projects which integrate these processes exist; the costs therefore are somewhat uncertain. Some recent credible
estimates indicate that a carbon price of US$60 per US-ton is required to make capture and storage competitive,[93]
corresponding to an increase in electricity prices of about US 6c per kWh (based on typical coal fired power plant
emissions of 2.13 pounds CO2 per kWh). This would double the typical US industrial electricity price (now at
around 6c per kWh) and increase the typical retail residential electricity price by about 50% (assuming 100% of
power is from coal, which may not necessarily be the case, as this varies from state to state). Similar (approximate)
price increases would likely be expected in coal dependent countries such as Australia, because the capture
technology and chemistry, as well as the transport and injection costs from such power plants would not, in an
overall sense, vary significantly from country to country.
The reasons that CCS is expected to cause such power price increases are several. Firstly, the increased energy
requirements of capturing and compressing CO2 significantly raises the operating costs of CCS-equipped power
plants. In addition, there are added investment and capital costs. The process would increase the fuel requirement of
a plant with CCS by about 25% for a coal-fired plant, and about 15% for a gas-fired plant.[2] The cost of this extra
fuel, as well as storage and other system costs, are estimated to increase the costs of energy from a power plant with
CCS by 30-60%, depending on the specific circumstances. Pre-commercial CCS demonstration projects are likely to
be more expensive than mature CCS technology; the total additional costs of an early large scale CCS demonstration
project are estimated to be €0.5-1.1 billion per project over the project lifetime.Other applications are possible. In
the belief that use of sequestered carbon could be harnessed to offset the cost of capture and storage, Walker
Architects published the first CO2 gas CAES application, proposing the use of sequestered CO2 for Energy Storage
on October 24, 2008. To date the feasibility of such potential offsets to the cost have not been examined.[94]
Carbon capture and storage 514
An estimate of costs of energy with and without CCS (2002 US$ per kWh)[2]
Natural gas combined cycle Pulverized coal Integrated gasification combined
cycle
Without capture (reference plant) 0.03 - 0.05 0.04 - 0.05 0.04 - 0.06
With capture and geological 0.04 - 0.08 0.06 - 0.10 0.06 - 0.09
storage
(Cost of capture and geological 0.01 - 0.03 0.02 - 0.05 0.02 - 0.03
storage)
With capture and Enhanced oil 0.04 - 0.07 0.05 - 0.08 0.04 - 0.08
recovery
All costs refer to costs for energy from newly built, large-scale plants. Natural gas combined cycle costs are based on natural gas prices of
US$2.80–4.40 per GJ (LHV based). Energy costs for PC and IGCC are based on bituminous coal costs of US$1.00–1.50 per GJ LHV. Note that the
costs are very dependent on fuel prices (which change continuously), in addition to other factors such as capital costs. Also note that for EOR, the
savings are greater for higher oil prices. Current gas and oil prices are substantially higher than the figures used here. All figures in the table are
[2]
from Table 8.3a in [IPCC, 2005].
The cost of CCS depends on the cost of capture and storage, which varies according to the method used. Geological
storage in saline formations or depleted oil or gas fields typically cost US$0.50–8.00 per tonne of CO2 injected, plus
an additional US$0.10–0.30 for monitoring costs. When storage is combined with enhanced oil recovery to extract
extra oil from an oil field, however, the storage could yield net benefits of US$10–16 per tonne of CO2 injected
(based on 2003 oil prices). This would likely negate some of the effect of the carbon capture when the oil was burnt
as fuel. Even taking this into account, as the table above shows, the benefits do not outweigh the extra costs of
capture.
Comparisons of CCS with other energy sources can be found in wind energy, solar energy, and Economics of new
nuclear power plants.
Environmental effects
The theoretical merit of CCS systems is the reduction of CO2 emissions by up to 90%, depending on plant type.
Generally, environmental effects from use of CCS arise during power production, CO2 capture, transport, and
storage. Issues relating to storage are discussed in those sections.
Additional energy is required for CO2 capture, and this means that substantially more fuel has to be used, depending
on the plant type. For new super-critical pulverized coal (PC) plants using current technology, the extra energy
requirements range from 24-40%, while for natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants the range is 11-22% and for
coal-based gasification combined cycle (IGCC) systems it is 14-25% [IPCC, 2005]. Obviously, fuel use and
environmental problems arising from mining and extraction of coal or gas increase accordingly. Plants equipped
with flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems for sulfur dioxide control require proportionally greater amounts of
limestone, and systems equipped with selective catalytic reduction systems for nitrogen oxides produced during
combustion require proportionally greater amounts of ammonia.
IPCC has provided estimates of air emissions from various CCS plant designs (see table below). While CO2 is
drastically reduced though never completely captured, emissions of air pollutants increase significantly, generally
due to the energy penalty of capture. Hence, the use of CCS entails a reduction in air quality.
Carbon capture and storage 515
Based on Table 3.5 in [IPCC, 2005]. Between brackets the increase or decrease compared to a similar plant without CCS.
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Bibliography
• Environmental Challenges and Greenhouse Gas Control for Fossil Fuel Utilization in the 21st Century. Edited by
M. Mercedes Maroto-Valer et al., Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, New York, 2002: "Sequestration of
Carbon Dioxide by Ocean Fertilization", pg 122. By M. Markels, Jr. and R.T. Barber.
• Nobel Intent: Carbon Dioxide Lakes in the Deep Ocean, September 19, 2006 @ 11:08AM - posted by John
Timmer (http://arstechnica.com/journals/science.ars/2006/9/19/5341)
• Solomon, Semere. (July 2006). Carbon Dioxide Storage: Geological Security and Environmental Issues Case
Study on the Sleipner Gas Field in Norway. The Bellona Foundation. Retrieved November 7, 2006 (http://
bellona.no/filearchive/fil_Paper_Solomon_-_CO2_Storage.pdf)
• ICO2N - The Vision (http://www.ico2n.com/docs/tech/ICON Vision.pdf)
• Stephens, J. 2006. Growing interest in carbon capture and storage (CCS) for climate change mitigation.
Sustainability: Science, Practice, & Policy 2(2):4–13. Published online November 29, 2006 (http://ejournal.nbii.
org/archives/vol2iss2/0604-016.stephens.html)
• The illusion of clean coal - Climate change, Mar 5th 2009, The Economist print edition (http://www.economist.
com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13235041)
• [[The Economist (http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13226661)] (2009) Trouble in store
- Carbon capture and storage, Mar 5th 2009, The Economist print edition]
• Bullis, K. (2009, October). Capturing carbon dioxide through cement production. Technology Review, 112(5)
(http://www.technologyreview.com/TR35/Profile.aspx?TRID=804)
• Biello, D. (2008, August 7). Cement from CO2: a concrete cure for global warming?. Scientific American (http://
www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=cement-from-carbon-dioxide)
Further reading
• . Hester, Ronald E; Roy M. Harrison (2009). Carbon capture: sequestration and storage (http://books.google.
ca/books?id=Xg4YRfZ7Rx4C&lpg=PP1&dq=Carbon capture and storage&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&f=true)
(Issues in environmental science and technology, 29. ed.). Royal Society of Chemistry. ISBN 9781847559173
• Shackley, Simon; Clair Gough (2006). Carbon capture and its storage: an integrated assessment (http://books.
google.ca/books?id=HeTMFzfuXHsC&lpg=PP1&dq=Carbon capture and storage&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&
f=true). Ashgate. ISBN 0754644995
• Wilson, Elizabeth J; David Gerard (2007). Carbon capture and sequestration : integrating technology,
monitoring and regulation (http://books.google.ca/books?id=s2mswAit2FsC&lpg=PA99&dq=Carbon
capture and storage&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&f=true). Blackwell Publishing. ISBN 9780813802077
Carbon capture and storage 519
• Metz, Bert (2005). IPCC special report on carbon dioxide capture and storage (http://books.google.ca/
books?id=HWgRvPUgyvQC&lpg=PA50&dq=Carbon capture and storage&pg=PA50#v=onepage&q&f=true).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group III (Cambridge University Press).
ISBN 052186643X
External links
• DOE Fossil Energy (http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/sequestration/index.html) Department of
Energy programs in carbon dioxide capture and storage.
• Algae based CCS, CO2 Capture with Algae (http://www.powerplantccs.com/ccs/cap/fut/alg/alg.html)
• 2007 NETL Carbon Sequestration Atlas (http://www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/carbon_seq/refshelf/atlas/
index.html)
• Scientific Facts on CO2 Capture and Storage (http://www.greenfacts.org/en/co2-capture-storage/index.htm),
a peer-reviewed summary of the IPCC Special Report on CCS.
• Carbon Sequestration News (http://www.jsg.utexas.edu/carboncapture/carbonsequestration.html) Recent
news articles on CO2 capture and storage.
• "Burying Climate Change: Efforts Begin to Sequester Carbon Dioxide from Power Plants" (http://www.
scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=burying-climate-change), West Virginia hosts the world's first power
plant to inject some of its CO2 emissions underground for permanent storage, Scientific American, September 22,
2009.
• Mitigate your Carbon emissions by planting trees (http://www.energy.eu/) Green EU Initiative
• A Guide To Carbon Capture And Storage: Can carbon capture and storage save the climate from the
consequences of fossil fuel burning? (http://www.scientificamerican.com/report.
cfm?id=carbon-capture-storage-ccs)
• Powerplantccs Power Plant Carbon Capture, Storage, CO2 Sequestration (http://www.powerplantccs.com)
• Paving the Legal Path for Carbon Sequestration from Coal (http://www.law.duke.edu/shell/cite.pl?19+
Duke+Envtl.+L.+&+Pol'y+F.+211+pdf) 2009 journal article on CCS legal questions.
Geoengineering 520
Geoengineering
The modern concept of geoengineering (or climate engineering)
proposes to deliberately manipulate a planet's climate, typically the
Earth's, to counteract the effects of global warming from greenhouse
gas emissions. Other uses of the word sometimes occur, meaning
geotechnical engineering.
The National Academy of Sciences defined geoengineering as "options
that would involve large-scale engineering of our environment in order
to combat or counteract the effects of changes in atmospheric
chemistry." [1] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
concluded in 2007 that geoengineering options, such as ocean
fertilization to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, remained largely
unproven.[2] It was judged that reliable cost estimates for
geoengineering had not yet been published.
To date, no large-scale geoengineering projects have been undertaken. Some limited tree planting[5] and cool roof[6]
projects are already underway, and ocean iron fertilization is at an advanced stage of research, with small-scale
research trials and global modelling having been completed.[7] Field research into sulfur aerosols has also started.[8]
Some commentators have suggested that consideration of geoengineering presents a moral hazard because it
threatens to reduce the political and popular pressure for emissions reduction.[9] Typically, the scientists and
engineers proposing geoengineering strategies do not suggest that they are an alternative to emissions control, but
rather an accompanying strategy.[10] Reviews of geoengineering techniques have emphasised that they are not
substitutes for emission controls and have identified potentially stronger and weaker schemes.[11] [12] [13]
Definition
Geoengineering is the idea of applying planetary engineering to Earth. Geoengineering would involve the deliberate
modification of Earth's environment on a large scale "to suit human needs and promote habitability".[14] Typically,
the term is used to describe proposals to counter the effects of human-induced climate change. However, others
define it more narrowly as nature-integrated engineering projects.[15] The term geoengineering is distinct from
environmental damage and accidental anthropogenic climate change, which are side-effects of human activity, rather
than an intended consequence. The global extraction of hydrocarbons from the subsurface using integrated
geoscience and engineering technology has been termed 'petroleum geoengineering' as an activity with global
impact.[16] Definitions of the term are not universally accepted.[17]
Geoengineering 521
Background
The field is currently experiencing a surge of interest as it has now become broadly accepted that global warming is
both real and dangerous. A degree of urgency in efforts to research and implement potential solutions is based on the
historic failure to control emissions, and the possibility that tipping points in the Earth's climate system are close at
hand.[18] In particular the Arctic shrinkage is causing accelerated regional warming. Rapid action with
geoengineering may be necessary. Other tipping points might be avoided by reducing the impact of global warming
in order to stifle positive feedback and prevent the resulting accelerated climate change.
The study of geoengineering is a complex discipline, as it requires the collation of knowledge in:
• scientific disciplines including atmospheric chemistry, ecology, meteorology, plant biology
• engineering disciplines including aeronautical engineering, naval architecture, ballistics
• management and control disciplines such as risk management, operational research, cost-benefit analysis
Several notable organisations have recently, or are soon to, investigate geoengineering with a view to evaluating its
potential. Notably, NASA,[19] the Royal Society,[20] the Institute of Mechanical Engineers,[21] [22] and the UK
Parliament,[23] have all held inquiries or contests aimed at discovering and evaluating current knowledge of the
subject. The Asilomar International Conference on Climate Intervention Technologies was convened to identify and
develop risk reduction guidelines for climate intervention experimentation.[24]
The major environmental organisations such as Friends of the Earth[25] and Greenpeace[26] have typically been
reluctant to endorse geoengineering. Some have argued that any public support for geoengineering may weaken the
fragile political consensus to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.[27]
Proposed strategies
Several geoengineering strategies have been proposed. The documentaries Five ways to save the world and La
temperature grimpe[28] describe many of the most notable projects. IPCC documents also detail several proposed
projects.[29]
Arctic geoengineering
Various hydrological geoengineering projects aim to change the climate without directly or indirectly removing
greenhouse gases, or directly influencing solar radiation. These principally act by limiting Arctic sea ice loss.
Keeping the Arctic ice is seen by many commentators as vital,[33] due to its role in the planet's albedo and in keeping
methane, which is an important greenhouse gas, locked up in permafrost.[34]
Heat transport
The use of vertical ocean pipes to mix cooler deep water and warmer surface water has been proposed. This
technology has also been suggested for the disruption of hurricanes by Bill Gates and others in a recent patent
application.[35] [36] Modification of hurricanes may be considered weather modification rather than geoengineering,
depending on the definition used.
Justification
The use of geoengineering to tackle climate change is advocated for several specific reasons:
The precise identity of such "tipping points" is not clear, with scientists taking differing views on whether specific
systems are capable of "tipping" and the point at which this "tipping" will occur.[40] An example of a previous
tipping point is that which preceded the rapid warming leading up to the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum.
Once the tipping point is reached, cuts in greenhouse gas emissions will not be able to reverse the change.
Depending on the precise nature of the individual system that "tips", positive feedbacks may occur, with warming
causing more warming, which causes yet more warming—a runaway global warming event.[41] Therefore, some
commentators suggest that more conservative use of resources is not enough to mitigate global warming. Even if all
greenhouse emissions suddenly came to a complete halt, the world would continue to be affected for centuries,[42]
and further warming may occur due to positive feedback. Conservation of resources and reduction of greenhouse
emissions, used in conjunction with geoengineering, are therefore considered a viable option.[43] [44] [45]
Geoengineering offers the hope of temporarily reversing some aspects of climate change and allowing the natural
climate to be substantially preserved whilst greenhouse gas emissions are brought under control and removed from
the atmosphere by natural or artificial processes.
Precautionary principle
Bearing in mind the threats from climate change, it can be argued that attempting geoengineering represents a lesser
risk than not pursuing such strategies. While the understanding of geoengineering techniques is limited, the risks of
global warming are at least partially understood, and are severe.[46]
Costs
Some geoengineering techniques, such as the use of pale-coloured materials for roofing and paving, can be achieved
at little or no cost, and may even offer a financial payback.[47] IPCC (2007) concluded that reliable cost estimates for
geoengineering options had not been published.[2] This finding was based on medium agreement in the literature and
limited evidence.
Political viability
It has been argued that regardless of the economic, scientific and technical aspects, the difficulty of achieving
concerted political action on climate change requires other approaches.[52] Those arguing political expediency say
the difficulty of achieving meaningful emissions cuts [53] and the effective failure of the Kyoto Protocol demonstrate
the practical difficulties of achieving carbon dioxide emissions reduction by the agreement of the international
community.[54] However, others point to support for geoengineering proposals among think tanks with a history of
climate change skepticism and opposition to emissions reductions as evidence that the prospect of geoengineering is
itself already politicized and being promoted as part of an argument against the need for (and viability of) emissions
reductions; that, rather than geoengineering being a solution to the difficulties of emissions reductions, the prospect
of geoengineering is being used as part of an argument to stall emissions reductions in the first place.[55]
Geoenginering poses several challenges in the context of governance because of issues of power and jurisdiction[56] .
Geoengineering as a climate change solution differs from other mitigation and adaptation strategies. Unlike a carbon
trading system that would be focused on participation from multiple parties along with transparency, monitoring
measures and compliance procedures; this is not necessarily required by geoengineering. Bengtsson[57] (2006)
argues that “the artificial release of sulphate aerosols is a commitment of at least several hundred years”. This
highlights the importance for a political framework that is sustainable enough to contain a multilateral commitment
over such a long period and yet is flexible as the techniques innovate through time. There are many controversies
surrounding this topic and hence, geoengineering has been made into a very political issue. Most discussions and
debates are not about which geoengineering technique is better than the other, or which one is more economically
and socially feasible. Discussions are broadly on who will have control over the deployment of geoengineering and
under what governance regime the deployment can be monitored and supervised. This is especially important due to
the regional variability of the affects of many geoengineering techniques, benefiting some countries while damaging
others. The challenge posed by geoengineering is not how to get countries to do it. It is to address the fundamental
question of who should decide whether and how geoengineering should be attempted – a problem of governance[58] .
Ineffectiveness
The effectiveness of the schemes proposed may fall short of predictions. In ocean iron fertilization, for example, the
amount of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere may be much lower than predicted, as carbon taken up by
plankton may be released back into the atmosphere from dead plankton, rather than being carried to the bottom of
the sea and sequestered.[62]
Control and predictability Change in sea surface pH caused by anthropogenic CO2 between the 1700s and the
1990s. This ocean acidification will still be a major problem unless atmospheric
problems
CO2 is reduced.
The full effects of various geoengineering
schemes are not well understood.[64] Matthews et al.[65] compared geoengineering to a number of previous
environmental interventions and concluded that "Given our current level of understanding of the climate system, it is
likely that the result of at least some geoengineering efforts would follow previous ecological examples where
increased human intervention has led to an overall increase in negative environmental consequences."
Performance of the systems may become ineffective, unpredictable or unstable as a result of external events, such as
volcanic eruptions, phytoplankton blooms, El Niño, solar flares, etc., potentially leading to profound and
unpredictable disruption to the climate system.
It may be difficult to predict the effectiveness of projects,[66] with models of techniques giving widely varying
results.[67] In the instances of systems which involve tipping points, this may result in irreversible effects. Climate
modelling is far from an exact science even when applied to comparatively well-understood natural climate systems,
and it is made more complex by the need to understand novel and unnatural processes which by definition lack
relevant observation data.[68]
Side effects
The techniques themselves may cause significant foreseen or unforeseen harm. For example, the use of reflective
balloons may result in significant litter,[69] which may be harmful to wildlife.
Ozone depletion is a risk of some geoengineering techniques, notably those involving sulfur delivery into the
stratosphere.[70]
The active nature of geoengineering may in some cases create a clear division between winners and losers. Most of
the proposed interventions are regional, such as albedo modification in the Arctic. Necessarily, such interventions
compel those in the affected regions to tolerate the effects of geoengineering for the supposed benefit of the global
climate.[71]
Geoengineering 526
There may be unintended climatic consequences, such as changes to the hydrological cycle[72] including droughts[73]
or floods, caused by the geoengineering techniques, but possibly not predicted by the models used to plan them.[74]
Such effects may be cumulative or chaotic in nature, making prediction and control very difficult.[75]
Unreliable systems
The performance of the interventions may be inconsistent due to mechanical failure, non-availability of consumables
or funding problems.
The geoengineering techniques would, in many instances, be vulnerable to being switched off or deliberately
destroyed. As examples, cloud making ships could be switched off or sunk and space mirrors could be tilted to make
them useless. Anyone capable of exerting such power may seek to abuse it for commercial gain, military advantage
or simple terrorism.
Weaponisation
Geoengineering research began as a war tactic in the 1940s for the US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.[49]
. During the Vietnam War, the US used geoengineering to flood certain areas. Then in 1976, 85 countries signed the
U.N. Convention on the Prohibition of Military of Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification
Techniques.[56]
The Environmental Modification Convention generally prohibits weaponising geoengineering techniques. However,
this does not eliminate the risk. Geoengineering techniques may serve as weapons of mass destruction, creating
droughts or famines designed to destroy or disable an enemy.[76] They could also be used simply to make battlefield
conditions more favourable to one side or the other in a war[77] (such as in Operation Popeye). For example,
laser-guided weapons are confounded by clouds, and thus switching off cloud machines would favour forces using
such weapons, and switching them on would favour ground forces defending against them.[78]
Whilst laws or treaties may prevent the manipulation of the climate as a weapon of war,[79] it could be argued that
geoengineering is itself a manipulation, and thus destroying or disabling the geoengineering structures is not
prohibited. A new legal framework may be necessary in the event that large-scale geoengineering becomes
established.
Carnegie’s Ken Caldeira said, "It will make it harder to achieve broad consensus on developing and governing these
technologies if there is suspicion that gaining military advantage is an underlying motivation for its
development..."[80]
Moral hazard
The existence of such techniques may reduce the political and social impetus to reduce carbon emissions.[85]
Other criticism comes from those who see geoengineering projects as reacting to the symptoms of global warming
rather than addressing the real causes of climate change. Because geoengineering is a form of controlling the risks
associated with global warming, it leads to a moral hazard problem. The problem is that knowledge that
geoengineering is possible could lead to climate impacts seeming less fearsome, which could in turn lead to a weaker
commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.[86]
Geoengineering 527
Implementation issues
There is no general consensus that geoengineering is safe, appropriate or effective, for the reasons listed above. The
issue of moral hazard means that many environmental groups and campaigners are reluctant to advocate
geoengineering for fear of reducing the imperative to cut greenhouse gas emissions.[94] Other environmentalists see
calls for geoengineering as part of an explicit strategy to delay emissions reductions on the part of those with
connections to coal and oil industries.[95]
All proposed geoengineering techniques require implementation on a relatively large scale, in order to make a
significant difference to the Earth's climate. The least costly schemes are budgeted at a cost of millions,[96] with
many more complex schemes such as space sunshade costing far more.
Many techniques, again such as space sunshade, require a complex technical development process before they are
ready to be implemented. There is no clear institutional mechanism for handling this research and development
process. As a result, many promising techniques do not have the engineering development or experimental evidence
to determine their feasibility or efficacy at present.
Once a technique has been developed and tested, its implementation is still likely to be difficult. Climate change is
by nature a global problem, and therefore no one institution, company or government is responsible for it. The
substantial costs of most geoengineering techniques therefore cannot currently be apportioned. Roll-out of such
technologies is therefore likely to be delayed until these issues can be resolved. A notable exception is the use of
small albedo manipulation projects, known as cool roof, in which the colour of roofing or paving surfaces can be
manipulated to reflect solar radiation back into space. These can be, and are, implemented by individuals, companies
and governments without controversy.[97]
Due to the radical changes caused by geoengineering interventions, legal issues are also an impediment to
implementation. The changes resulting from geoengineering necessarily benefit some people and disadvantage
Geoengineering 528
others. There may therefore be legal challenges to the implementation of geoengineering techniques by those
adversely affected by them.[98]
Evaluation of geoengineering
Few field experiments in geoengineering have been carried out. Most of what is known about the suggested
techniques is based on small-scale trials and from simulations of global climate models and other computer
modelling techniques. Some geoengineering schemes employ methods that have analogues in natural phenomena
such as stratospheric sulfur aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei. As such, studies about the efficacy of these
schemes can draw on information already available from other research, such as that following the 1991 eruption of
Mount Pinatubo. However, comparative evaluation of the relative merits of each technology is complicated,
especially given modelling uncertainties and the early stage of engineering development of many geoengineering
schemes.[99]
In a 2009 review study, Lenton and Vaughan evaluated a range of geoengineering schemes from those that sequester
CO2 from the atmosphere and decrease longwave radiation trapping, to those that decrease the Earth's receipt of
shortwave radiation.[11] In order to permit a comparison of disparate techniques, they used a common evaluation for
each scheme based on its effect on net radiative forcing. As such, the review examined the scientific plausibility of
schemes rather than the practical considerations such as engineering feasibility or economic cost. Lenton and
Vaughan found that "[air] capture and storage shows the greatest potential, combined with afforestation,
reforestation and bio-char production", and noted that "other suggestions that have received considerable media
attention, in particular “ocean pipes” appear to be ineffective".[11] They concluded that "[climate] geoengineering is
best considered as a potential complement to the mitigation of CO2 emissions, rather than as an alternative to it".[11]
Reports into geoengineering have also been published in the United Kingdom by the Institution of Mechanical
Engineers[12] and the Royal Society.[13] The IMechE report examined a small subset of proposed schemes (air
capture, urban albedo and algal-based CO2 capture schemes), and its main conclusions were that geoengineering
should be researched and trialled at the small scale alongside a wider decarbonisation of the economy.[12]
The Royal Society review examined a wide range of geoengineering schemes and evaluated them in terms of
effectiveness, affordability, timeliness and safety (assigning qualitative estimates in each assessment). Similarly to
Lenton and Vaughan,[11] the report divided schemes into "carbon dioxide removal" (CDR) and "solar radiation
management" (SRM) approaches that respectively address longwave and shortwave radiation. The key
recommendations of the report were that "Parties to the UNFCCC should make increased efforts towards mitigating
and adapting to climate change, and in particular to agreeing to global emissions reductions", and that "[nothing]
now known about geoengineering options gives any reason to diminish these efforts".[13] Nonetheless, the report also
recommended that "research and development of geoengineering options should be undertaken to investigate
whether low risk methods can be made available if it becomes necessary to reduce the rate of warming this
century".[13]
Geoengineering 529
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[65] Matthews, H. D.; Turner, S. E. (2009). "Of mongooses and mitigation: ecological analogues to geoengineering". Environmental Research
Letters 4 (4): 045105. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045105.
[66] Keith Bower et al., 2006 Computational assessment of a proposed technique for global warming mitigation via albedo-enhancement of
marine stratocumulus clouds. Atmos. Res., vol. 82, no. 1-2, 2006, pp. 328-336
Geoengineering 531
• Launder, Brian; Thompson, J. Michael T., eds (December 2009). Geo-Engineering Climate Change:
Environmental Necessity or Pandora’s Box?. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-198035.
• Eli Kintisch (2010). Hack the Planet: Science's Best Hope, or Worst Nightmare, for Averting Climate
Catastrophe. ISBN 978-0470524268.
Geoengineering 532
• Jeff Goodell (2010). How to Cool the Planet: Geoengineering and the Audacious Quest to Fix Earth’s Climate.
ISBN 978-0618990610.
• Morton, Oliver (May 10, 2007). "Climate change: Is this what it takes to save the world?". Nature 447 (7141):
132–136. doi:10.1038/447132a. PMID 17495899. --Abstract only, full article requires payment.
• James Rodger Fleming (September 15, 2010). Fixing the Sky: The Checkered History of Weather and Climate
Control. Columbia University Press. ISBN 978-0231144124.
External links
• What the UN ban on geoengineering really means (http://www.newscientist.com/article/
dn19660-what-the-un-ban-on-geoengineering-really-means.html) November 1, 2010 by Fred Pearce of New
Scientist
• Geoengineering sparks international ban, first-ever congressional report (http://www.washingtonpost.com/
wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/29/AR2010102906361.html) Juliet Eilperin Washington Post October 30,
2010
• Engineering the Climate : Research Needs and Strategies for International Coordination October 2010 report
(http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/nation/pdfs/Geongineeringreport.pdf) from the U.S. House of
Representatives
• Threat of global warming sparks U.S. interest in geoengineering (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/
content/article/2010/10/03/AR2010100303437.html) by Juliet Eilperin of the Washington Post October 3,
2010
• Re-Engineering the Earth (http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/07/re-engineering-the-earth/
7552/) by Graeme Wood of The Atlantic , July 2009
• Geoengineering Retrospective (http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/008364.html) Overview of articles
on geoengineering by Julia Levitt, Worldchanging, August 2008
• Geo-engineering website, describing current methods/proposals done to revert climate change by geo-engineering
(http://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/), by Sam Carana
• Geoengineering links (http://www.geocrisis.com/cpe_geoengineering_menu.htm), annotated list, 2006?
• "The Geoengineering Gambit" (http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/24157/), Technology Review, Jan.
2010
• 10 Ideas That Are Changing The World: 6.Geoengineering (http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/
0,28804,1720049_1720050_1721653,00.html) Time Magazine, March 2008
• Geo-engineering in the Southern Ocean (http://orgprints.org/15528/01/15528.pdf), by John Paull, Australian
National University, 2009
• 5 ways to save the earth (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/6298507.stm), BBC documentary about
geo-engineering, 20 February 2007
• Climate Engineering Is Doable, as Long as We Never Stop (http://www.wired.com/science/planetearth/news/
2007/07/geoengineering) Wired Magazine, July 2007
• "Geoengineering: A Climate Change Manhattan Project" (http://www.metatronics.net/lit/geo2.html) by Jay
Michaelson, Stanford Environmental Law Journal, 1998
• Terraforming Earth IV: The Question of Methane (http://www.openthefuture.com/wcarchive/2005/08/
terraforming_earth_iv_the_ques.html) August 11, 2005
• A Debate on Geoengineering: Vandana Shiva vs. Gwynne Dyer (http://www.democracynow.org/2010/7/8/
a_debate_on_geoengineering_vandana_shiva) - video report by Democracy Now!
• Geoengineering: 'A Bad Idea Whose Time Has Come' (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.
php?storyId=127245606) discussion on NPR
• We need birth control, not geoengineering (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/apr/06/
geoengineering-carbon-emissions) April 6, 2010
Geoengineering 533
Carbon sink
A carbon sink is a natural or artificial reservoir that accumulates and stores some carbon-containing chemical
compound for an indefinite period. The process by which carbon sinks remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the
atmosphere is known as carbon sequestration. Public awareness of the significance of CO2 sinks has grown since
passage of the Kyoto Protocol, which promotes their use as a form of carbon offset.
The main natural sinks are:
• Absorption of carbon dioxide by the oceans via physicochemical and biological processes
• Photosynthesis by terrestrial plants
Natural sinks are typically much larger than artificial sinks. The main artificial sinks are:
• Landfills
• Carbon capture and storage proposals
Carbon sources include:
• Fossil fuels
• Farmland; there are proposals for improvements in farming practices to reverse this.
Kyoto Protocol
Because growing vegetation absorbs carbon dioxide, the Kyoto Protocol allows Annex I countries with large areas of
growing forests to issue Removal Units to recognise the sequestration of carbon. The additional units make it easier
for them to achieve their target emission levels.
Some countries seek to trade emission rights in carbon emission markets, purchasing the unused carbon emission
allowances of other countries. If overall limits on greenhouse gas emission are put into place, cap and trade market
mechanisms are purported to find cost-effective ways to reduce emissions.[1] There is as yet no carbon audit regime
for all such markets globally, and none is specified in the Kyoto Protocol. National carbon emissions are
self-declared.
In the Clean Development Mechanism, only afforestation and reforestation are eligible to produce certified emission
reductions (CERs) in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012). Forest conservation activities
or activities avoiding deforestation, which would result in emission reduction through the conservation of existing
carbon stocks, are not eligible at this time.[2] Also, agricultural carbon sequestration is not possible yet.[3]
Soils
Soils represent a short to long-term carbon storage medium, and contain more carbon than all terrestrial vegetation
and the atmosphere combined.[4] [5] Plant litter and other biomass accumulates as organic matter in soils, and is
degraded by chemical weathering and biological degradation. More recalcitrant organic carbon polymers such as
cellulose, hemi-cellulose, lignin, aliphatic compounds, waxes and terpenoids are collectively retained as humus.[6]
Carbon sink 534
Organic matter tends to accumulate in litter and soils of colder regions such as the boreal forests of North America
and the Taiga of Russia. Leaf litter and humus are rapidly oxidized and poorly retained in sub-tropical and tropical
climate conditions due to high temperatures and extensive leaching by rainfall. Areas where shifting cultivation or
slash and burn agriculture are practiced are generally only fertile for 2–3 years before they are abandoned. These
tropical jungles are similar to coral reefs in that they are highly efficient at conserving and circulating necessary
nutrients, which explains their lushness in a nutrient desert. Much organic carbon retained in many agricultural areas
worldwide has been severely depleted due to intensive farming practices.
Grasslands contribute to soil organic matter, stored mainly in their extensive fibrous root mats. Due in part to the
climactic conditions of these regions (e.g. cooler temperatures and semi-arid to arid conditions), these soils can
accumulate significant quantities of organic matter. This can vary based on rainfall, the length of the winter season,
and the frequency of naturally occurring lightning-induced grass-fires. While these fires release carbon dioxide, they
improve the quality of the grasslands overall, in turn increasing the amount of carbon retained in the retained humic
material. They also deposit carbon directly to the soil in the form of char that does not significantly degrade back to
carbon dioxide.
Forest fires release absorbed carbon back into the atmosphere, as does deforestation due to rapidly increased
oxidation of soil organic matter.
Organic matter in peat bogs undergoes slow anaerobic decomposition below the surface. This process is slow enough
that in many cases the bog grows rapidly and fixes more carbon from the atmosphere than is released. Over time, the
peat grows deeper. Peat bogs inter approximately one-quarter of the carbon stored in land plants and soils.[7]
Under some conditions, forests and peat bogs may become sources of CO2, such as when a forest is flooded by the
construction of a hydroelectric dam. Unless the forests and peat are harvested before flooding, the rotting vegetation
is a source of CO2 and methane comparable in magnitude to the amount of carbon released by a fossil-fuel powered
plant of equivalent power.[8]
Regenerative agriculture
Current agricultural practices lead to carbon loss from soils. It has been suggested that improved farming practices
could return the soils to being a carbon sink. Present worldwide practises of overgrazing are substantially reducing
many grasslands performance as carbon sinks.[9] The Rodale Institute says that Regenerative agriculture, if practiced
on the planet’s 3.5 billion tillable acres, could sequester up to 40% of current CO2 emissions.[10] [11] They claim that
agricultural carbon sequestration has the potential to mitigate global warming. When using biologically based
regenerative practices, this dramatic benefit can be accomplished with no decrease in yields or farmer profits.
Organically managed soils can convert carbon dioxide from a greenhouse gas into a food-producing asset.
In 2006, U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion were estimated at nearly 6.5 billion tons. If a
2,000 (lb/ac)/year sequestration rate was achieved on all 434000000 acres ( km2) of cropland in the United States,
nearly 1.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide would be sequestered per year, mitigating close to one quarter of the
country's total fossil fuel emissions.
Carbon sink 535
Oceans
Oceans are at present CO2 sinks, and
represent the largest active carbon sink
on Earth, absorbing more than a
quarter of the carbon dioxide that
humans put into the air.[12] On longer
timescales they may be both sources
and sinks - during ice ages CO2 levels
decrease to ~180 ppmv, and much of
this is believed to be stored in the
oceans. As ice ages end, CO2 is
released from the oceans and CO2
levels during previous interglacials
have been around ~280 ppmv. This
role as a sink for CO2 is driven by two
processes, the solubility pump and the Air-sea exchange of CO2
biological pump.[13] The former is
primarily a function of differential CO2 solubility in seawater and the thermohaline circulation, while the latter is the
sum of a series of biological processes that transport carbon (in organic and inorganic forms) from the surface
euphotic zone to the ocean's interior. A small fraction of the organic carbon transported by the biological pump to the
seafloor is buried in anoxic conditions under sediments and ultimately forms fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas.
At the present time, approximately one third[14] of human generated emissions are estimated to be entering the
ocean. The solubility pump is the primary mechanism driving this, with the biological pump playing a negligible
role. This stems from the limitation of the biological pump by ambient light and nutrients required by the
phytoplankton that ultimately drive it. Total inorganic carbon is not believed to limit primary production in the
oceans, so its increasing availability in the ocean does not directly affect production (the situation on land is
different, since enhanced atmospheric levels of CO2 essentially "fertilize" land plant growth). However, ocean
acidification by invading anthropogenic CO2 may affect the biological pump by negatively impacting calcifying
organisms such as coccolithophores, foraminiferans and pteropods. Climate change may also affect the biological
pump in the future by warming and stratifying the surface ocean, thus reducing the supply of limiting nutrients to
surface waters.
In January 2009, the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration announced a joint study to determine whether the ocean off the California coast was serving as a
carbon source or a carbon sink. Principal instrumentation for the study will be self-contained CO2 monitors placed
on buoys in the ocean. They will measure the partial pressure of CO2 in the ocean and the atmosphere just above the
water surface.[15]
In February 2009, Science Daily reported that the Southern Indian Ocean is becoming less effective at absorbing
carbon dioxide due to changes to the regions climate which include higher wind speeds.[16]
Carbon sink 536
Forests
Forests are carbon stores, and they are carbon dioxide sinks when they are increasing in density or area. In Canada's
boreal forests as much as 80% of the total carbon is stored in the soils as dead organic matter.[17] A 40-year study of
African, Asian, and South American tropical forests by the University of Leeds, shows tropical forests absorb about
18% of all carbon dioxide added by fossil fuels.[18] Tropical reforestation can mitigate global warming until all
available land has been reforested with mature forests. However, the global cooling effect of carbon sequestration by
forests is partially counterbalanced in that reforestation can decrease the reflection of sunlight (albedo). Mid-to-high
latitude forests have a much lower albedo during snow seasons than flat ground, thus contributing to warming.
Modeling that compares the effects of albedo differences between forests and grasslands suggests that expanding the
land area of forests in temperate zones offers only a temporary cooling benefit.[19] [20] [21] [22]
In the United States in 2004 (the most recent year for which EPA statistics[23] are available), forests sequestered
10.6% (637 teragrams[24] ) of the carbon dioxide released in the United States by the combustion of fossil fuels (coal,
oil and natural gas; 5657 teragrams[25] ). Urban trees sequestered another 1.5% (88 teragrams[24] ). To further reduce
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions by 7%, as stipulated by the Kyoto Protocol, would require the planting of "an area the
size of Texas [8% of the area of Brazil] every 30 years".[26] Carbon offset programs are planting millions of
fast-growing trees per year to reforest tropical lands, for as little as $0.10 per tree; over their typical 40-year lifetime,
one million of these trees will fix 0.9 teragrams of carbon dioxide.[27] In Canada, reducing timber harvesting would
have very little impact on carbon dioxide emissions because of the combination of harvest and stored carbon in
manufactured wood products along with the regrowth of the harvested forests. Additionally, the amount of carbon
released from harvesting is small compared to the amount of carbon lost each year to forest fires and other natural
disturbances.[17]
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that "a sustainable forest management strategy aimed at
maintaining or increasing forest carbon stocks, while producing an annual sustained yield of timber fibre or energy
from the forest, will generate the largest sustained mitigation benefit".[28] Sustainable management practices keep
forests growing at a higher rate over a potentially longer period of time, thus providing net sequestration benefits in
addition to those of unmanaged forests.[29]
Life expectancy of forests varies throughout the world, influenced by tree species, site conditions and natural
disturbance patterns. In some forests carbon may be stored for centuries, while in other forests carbon is released
with frequent stand replacing fires. Forests that are harvested prior to stand replacing events allow for the retention
of carbon in manufactured forest products such as lumber.[30] However, only a portion of the carbon removed from
logged forests ends up as durable goods and buildings. The remainder ends up as sawmill by-products such as pulp,
paper and pallets, which often end with incineration (resulting in carbon release into the atmosphere) at the end of
their lifecycle. For instance, of the 1,692 teragrams of carbon harvested from forests in Oregon and Washington
(U.S) from 1900 to 1992, only 23% is in long-term storage in forest products.[31]
Oceans
One way to increase the carbon sequestration efficiency of the oceans is to add micrometre-sized iron particles in the
form of either hematite (iron oxide) or melanterite (iron sulfate) to certain regions of the ocean. This has the effect of
stimulating growth of plankton. Iron is an important nutrient for phytoplankton, usually made available via
upwelling along the continental shelves, inflows from rivers and streams, as well as deposition of dust suspended in
the atmosphere. Natural sources of ocean iron have been declining in recent decades, contributing to an overall
decline in ocean productivity (NASA, 2003). Yet in the presence of iron nutrients plankton populations quickly
grow, or 'bloom', expanding the base of biomass productivity throughout the region and removing significant
quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere via photosynthesis. A test in 2002 in the Southern Ocean around Antarctica
Carbon sink 537
suggests that between 10,000 and 100,000 carbon atoms are sunk for each iron atom added to the water. More recent
work in Germany (2005) suggests that any biomass carbon in the oceans, whether exported to depth or recycled in
the euphotic zone, represents long-term storage of carbon. This means that application of iron nutrients in select parts
of the oceans, at appropriate scales, could have the combined effect of restoring ocean productivity while at the same
time mitigating the effects of human caused emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.
Because the effect of periodic small scale phytoplankton blooms on ocean ecosystems is unclear, more studies would
be helpful. Phytoplankton have a complex effect on cloud formation via the release of substances such as dimethyl
sulfide (DMS) that are converted to sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, providing cloud condensation nuclei, or
CCN. But the effect of small scale plankton blooms on overall DMS production is unknown.
Other nutrients such as nitrates, phosphates, and silica as well as iron may cause ocean fertilization. There has been
some speculation that using pulses of fertilization (around 20 days in length) may be more effective at getting carbon
to ocean floor than sustained fertilization.[32]
There is some controversy over seeding the oceans with iron however, due to the potential for increased toxic
phytoplankton growth (e.g. "red tide"), declining water quality due to overgrowth, and increasing anoxia in areas
harming other sea-life such as zooplankton, fish, coral, etc.[33] [34]
Soils
Since the 1850s, a large proportion of the world's grasslands have been tilled and converted to croplands, allowing
the rapid oxidation of large quantities of soil organic carbon. However, in the United States in 2004 (the most recent
year for which EPA statistics are available), agricultural soils including pasture land sequestered 0.8% (46
teragrams[24] ) as much carbon as was released in the United States by the combustion of fossil fuels (5988
teragrams[25] ). The annual amount of this sequestration has been gradually increasing since 1998.[24]
Methods that significantly enhance carbon sequestration in soil include no-till farming, residue mulching, cover
cropping, and crop rotation, all of which are more widely used in organic farming than in conventional farming.[35]
[36]
Because only 5% of US farmland currently uses no-till and residue mulching, there is a large potential for carbon
sequestration.[37] Conversion to pastureland, particularly with good management of grazing, can sequester even
more carbon in the soil.
Terra preta, an anthropogenic, high-carbon soil, is also being investigated as a sequestration mechanism. By
pyrolysing biomass, about half of its carbon can be reduced to charcoal, which can persist in the soil for centuries,
and makes a useful soil amendment, especially in tropical soils (biochar or agrichar).[38] [39]
Savanna
Controlled burns on far north Australian savannas can result in an overall carbon sink. One working example is the
West Arnhem Fire Management Agreement, started to bring "strategic fire management across 28,000 km² of
Western Arnhem Land". Deliberately starting controlled burns early in the dry season results in a mosaic of burnt
and unburnt country which reduces the area of burning compared with stronger, late dry season fires. In the early dry
season there are higher moisture levels, cooler temperatures, and lighter wind than later in the dry season; fires tend
to go out overnight. Early controlled burns also results in a smaller proportion of the grass and tree biomass being
burnt.[40] Emission reductions of 256,000 tonnes of CO2 have been made as of 2007.[41]
Carbon sink 538
Artificial sequestration
For carbon to be sequestered artificially (i.e. not using the natural processes of the carbon cycle) it must first be
captured, or it must be significantly delayed or prevented from being re-released into the atmosphere (by
combustion, decay, etc.) from an existing carbon-rich material, by being incorporated into an enduring usage (such
as in construction). Thereafter it can be passively stored or remain productively utilized over time in a variety of
ways.
For example, upon harvesting, wood (as a carbon-rich material) can be immediately burned or otherwise serve as a
fuel, returning its carbon to the atmosphere, or it can be incorporated into construction or a range of other durable
products, thus sequestering its carbon over years or even centuries. One ton of dry wood is equivalent to 1.8 tons of
carbon dioxide.
Indeed, a very carefully designed and durable, energy-efficient and energy-capturing building has the potential to
sequester (in its carbon-rich construction materials), as much as or more carbon than was released by the acquisition
and incorporation of all its materials and than will be released by building-function "energy-imports" during the
structure's (potentially multi-century) existence. Such a structure might be termed "carbon neutral" or even "carbon
negative". Building construction and operation (electricity usage, heating, etc.) are estimated to contribute nearly half
of the annual human-caused carbon additions to the atmosphere.[42]
Natural-gas purification plants often already have to remove carbon dioxide, either to avoid dry ice clogging gas
tankers or to prevent carbon-dioxide concentrations exceeding the 3% maximum permitted on the natural-gas
distribution grid.
Beyond this, one of the most likely early applications of carbon capture is the capture of carbon dioxide from flue
gases at power stations (in the case of coal, this is known as "clean coal"). A typical new 1000 MW coal-fired power
station produces around 6 million tons of carbon dioxide annually. Adding carbon capture to existing plants can add
significantly to the costs of energy production; scrubbing costs aside, a 1000 MW coal plant will require the storage
of about 50 million barrels of carbon dioxide a year. However, scrubbing is relatively affordable when added to new
plants based on coal gasification technology, where it is estimated to raise energy costs for households in the United
States using only coal-fired electricity sources from 10 cents per kW·h to 12 cents.[43]
Carbon capture
Currently, capture of carbon dioxide is performed on a large scale by absorption of carbon dioxide onto various
amine-based solvents. Other techniques are currently being investigated, such as pressure swing adsorption,
temperature swing adsorption, gas separation membranes, and cryogenics. Recent pilot studies include flue capture
and conversion to baking soda and use of algae for conversion to fuel or feed(reference needed).
In coal-fired power stations, the main alternatives to retrofitting amine-based absorbers to existing power stations are
two new technologies: coal gasification combined-cycle and oxy-fuel combustion. Gasification first produces a
"syngas" primarily of hydrogen and carbon monoxide, which is burned, with carbon dioxide filtered from the flue
gas. Oxy-fuel combustion burns the coal in oxygen instead of air, producing only carbon dioxide and water vapour,
which are relatively easily separated. Some of the combustion products must be returned to the combustion chamber,
either before or after separation, otherwise the temperatures would be too high for the turbine.
Another long-term option is carbon capture directly from the air using hydroxides. The air would literally be
scrubbed of its CO2 content. This idea offers an alternative to non-carbon-based fuels for the transportation sector.
Examples of carbon sequestration at coal plants include converting carbon from smokestacks into baking soda,[44]
[45]
and algae-based carbon capture, circumventing storage by converting algae into fuel or feed.[46]
Carbon sink 539
Oceans
Another proposed form of carbon sequestration in the ocean is direct injection. In this method, carbon dioxide is
pumped directly into the water at depth, and expected to form "lakes" of liquid CO2 at the bottom. Experiments
carried out in moderate to deep waters (350–3600 m) indicate that the liquid CO2 reacts to form solid CO2 clathrate
hydrates, which gradually dissolve in the surrounding waters.
This method, too, has potentially dangerous environmental consequences. The carbon dioxide does react with the
water to form carbonic acid, H2CO3; however, most (as much as 99%) remains as dissolved molecular CO2. The
equilibrium would no doubt be quite different under the high pressure conditions in the deep ocean. In addition, if
deep-sea bacterial methanogens that reduce carbon dioxide were to encounter the carbon dioxide sinks, levels of
methane gas may increase, leading to the generation of an even worse greenhouse gas.[47] The resulting
environmental effects on benthic life forms of the bathypelagic, abyssopelagic and hadopelagic zones are unknown.
Even though life appears to be rather sparse in the deep ocean basins, energy and chemical effects in these deep
basins could have far-reaching implications. Much more work is needed here to define the extent of the potential
problems.
Carbon storage in or under oceans may not be compatible with the Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution
by Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter.[48]
An additional method of long-term ocean-based sequestration is to gather crop residue such as corn stalks or excess
hay into large weighted bales of biomass and deposit it in the alluvial fan areas of the deep ocean basin. Dropping
these residues in alluvial fans would cause the residues to be quickly buried in silt on the sea floor, sequestering the
biomass for very long time spans. Alluvial fans exist in all of the world's oceans and seas where river deltas fall off
the edge of the continental shelf such as the Mississippi alluvial fan in the gulf of Mexico and the Nile alluvial fan in
the Mediterranean Sea. A downside, however, would be an increase in aerobic bacteria growth due to the
introduction of biomass, leading to more competition for oxygen resources in the deep sea, similar to the oxygen
minimum zone.
Geological sequestration
The method of geo-sequestration or geological storage involves injecting carbon dioxide directly into underground
geological formations. Declining oil fields, saline aquifers, and unminable coal seams have been suggested as
storage sites. Caverns and old mines that are commonly used to store natural gas are not considered, because of a
lack of storage safety.
CO2 has been injected into declining oil fields for more than 40 years, to increase oil recovery. This option is
attractive because the storage costs are offset by the sale of additional oil that is recovered. Typically, 10-15%
additional recovery of the original oil in place is possible. Further benefits are the existing infrastructure and the
geophysical and geological information about the oil field that is available from the oil exploration. Another benefit
of injecting CO2 into Oil fields is that CO2 is soluble in oil. Dissolving CO2 in oil lowers the viscosity of the oil and
reduces its interfacial tension which increases the oils mobility. All oil fields have a geological barrier preventing
upward migration of oil. As most oil and gas has been in place for millions to tens of millions of years, depleted oil
and gas reservoirs can contain carbon dioxide for millennia. Identified possible problems are the many 'leak'
opportunities provided by old oil wells, the need for high injection pressures and acidification which can damage the
geological barrier. Other disadvantages of old oil fields are their limited geographic distribution and depths, which
require high injection pressures for sequestration. Below a depth of about 1000 m, carbon dioxide is injected as a
supercritical fluid, a material with the density of a liquid, but the viscosity and diffusivity of a gas. Unminable coal
seams can be used to store CO2, because CO2 absorbs to the coal surface, ensuring safe long-term storage. In the
process it releases methane that was previously adsorbed to the coal surface and that may be recovered. Again the
sale of the methane can be used to offset the cost of the CO2 storage. Release or burning of methane would of course
at least partially offset the obtained sequestration result – except when the gas is allowed to escape into the
Carbon sink 540
atmosphere in significant quantities: methane has a higher global warming potential than CO2.
Saline aquifers contain highly mineralized brines and have so far been considered of no benefit to humans except in
a few cases where they have been used for the storage of chemical waste. Their advantages include a large potential
storage volume and relatively common occurrence reducing the distance over which CO2 has to be transported. The
major disadvantage of saline aquifers is that relatively little is known about them compared to oil fields. Another
disadvantage of saline aquifers is that as the salinity of the water increases, less CO2 can be dissolved into aqueous
solution. To keep the cost of storage acceptable the geophysical exploration may be limited, resulting in larger
uncertainty about the structure of a given aquifer. Unlike storage in oil fields or coal beds, no side product will offset
the storage cost. Leakage of CO2 back into the atmosphere may be a problem in saline-aquifer storage. However,
current research shows that several trapping mechanisms immobilize the CO2 underground, reducing the risk of
leakage [references are missing].
A major research project examining the geological sequestration of carbon dioxide is currently being performed at an
oil field at Weyburn in south-eastern Saskatchewan. In the North Sea, Norway's Statoil natural-gas platform Sleipner
strips carbon dioxide out of the natural gas with amine solvents and disposes of this carbon dioxide by geological
sequestration. Sleipner reduces emissions of carbon dioxide by approximately one million tonnes a year. The cost of
geological sequestration is minor relative to the overall running costs. As of April 2005, BP is considering a trial of
large-scale sequestration of carbon dioxide stripped from power plant emissions in the Miller oilfield as its reserves
are depleted.
In October 2007, the Bureau of Economic Geology at The University of Texas at Austin received a 10-year, $38
million subcontract to conduct the first intensively monitored, long-term project in the United States studying the
feasibility of injecting a large volume of CO2 for underground storage.[49] The project is a research program of the
Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (SECARB) [50], funded by the National Energy Technology
Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The SECARB partnership will demonstrate CO2 injection rate
and storage capacity in the Tuscaloosa-Woodbine geologic system that stretches from Texas to Florida. Beginning in
fall 2007, the project will inject CO2 at the rate of one million tons per year, for up to 1.5 years, into brine up to
10000 feet (3000 m) below the land surface near the Cranfield oil field about 15 miles (24 km) east of Natchez,
Mississippi. Experimental equipment will measure the ability of the subsurface to accept and retain CO2.
Mineral sequestration
Mineral sequestration aims to trap carbon in the form of solid carbonate salts. This process occurs slowly in nature
and is responsible for the deposition and accumulation of limestone (calcium carbonate) over geologic time.
Carbonic acid in groundwater slowly reacts with complex silicates to dissolve calcium, magnesium, alkalis and silica
and leave a residue of clay minerals. The dissolved calcium and magnesium react with bicarbonate to precipitate
calcium and magnesium carbonates, a process that organisms use to make shells. When the organisms die, their
shells are deposited as sediment and eventually turn into limestone. Limestones have accumulated over billions of
years of geologic time and contain much of Earth's carbon. Ongoing research aims to speed up similar reactions
involving alkali carbonates.[51]
One proposed reaction is that of the olivine-rich rock dunite, or its hydrated equivalent serpentinite with carbon
dioxide to form the carbonate mineral magnesite, plus silica and iron oxide (magnetite).
Serpentinite sequestration is favored because of the non-toxic and stable nature of magnesium carbonate. The ideal
reactions involve the magnesium endmember components of the olivine (reaction 1) or serpentine (reaction 2), the
latter derived from earlier olivine by hydration and silicification (reaction 3). The presence of iron in the olivine or
serpentine reduces the efficiency of sequestration, since the iron components of these minerals break down to iron
oxide and silica (reaction 4).
Carbon sink 541
Serpentinite reactions
Reaction 1
Mg-Olivine + Carbon dioxide → Magnesite + Silica
Mg2SiO4 + 2CO2 → 2MgCO3 + SiO2 + H2O
Reaction 2
Serpentine + carbon dioxide → Magnesite + silica + water
Mg3[Si2O5(OH)4] + 3CO2 → 3MgCO3 + 2SiO2 + 2H2O
Reaction 3
Mg-Olivine + Water + Silica → Serpentine
3Mg2SiO4 + 2SiO2 + 4H2O → 2Mg3[Si2O5(OH)4
Reaction 4
Fe-Olivine + Water → Magnetite + Silica + Hydrogen
3Fe2SiO4 + 2H2O → 2Fe3O4 + 3SiO2 + 2H2
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Carolina.
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of selenium, iron and cobalt addition to growth and yessotoxin production of the toxic marine dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum in
culture" (http:/ / www. sciencedirect. com/ science?_ob=ArticleURL& _udi=B6T8F-4DH2JCT-1& _user=10& _coverDate=12/ 30/ 2004&
_rdoc=1& _fmt=& _orig=search& _sort=d& view=c& _acct=C000050221& _version=1& _urlVersion=0& _userid=10&
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[35] Susan S. Lang (13 July 2005). "Organic farming produces same corn and soybean yields as conventional farms, but consumes less energy
and no pesticides, study finds" (http:/ / www. news. cornell. edu/ stories/ July05/ organic. farm. vs. other. ssl. html). . Retrieved 2008-07-08.
[36] Pimentel, David; Hepperly, Paul; Hanson, James; Douds, David; Seidel, Rita (2005). "Environmental, Energetic, and Economic
Comparisons of Organic and Conventional Farming Systems". Bioscience 55 (7): 573–82.
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Carbon sink 543
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summary/ 304/ 5669/ 393?maxtoshow=& HITS=& hits=& RESULTFORMAT=& author1=Morgan,+ mg& fulltext=soil&
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[38] Johannes Lehmann. "Biochar: the new frontier" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20080618231424/ http:/ / www. css. cornell. edu/ faculty/
lehmann/ biochar/ Biochar_home. htm). Archived from the original (http:/ / www. css. cornell. edu/ faculty/ lehmann/ biochar/ Biochar_home.
htm) on 2008-06-18. . Retrieved 2008-07-08.
[39] Horstman, Mark (2007-09-23). "Agrichar – A solution to global warming?" (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ catalyst/ stories/ s2012892. htm).
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[40] "West Arnhem Land Fire Abatement Project" (http:/ / savanna. ntu. edu. au/ information/ arnhem_fire_project. html). Savanna Information.
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[41] "Eureka Win for West Arnhem Land Fire Project" (http:/ / savanna. ntu. edu. au/ news/ topical_savannas109. html). Savanna Information.
Tropical Savannas Cooperative Research Centre. . Retrieved 2008-07-08.
[42] "Climate Change, Global Warming, and the Built Environment - Architecture 2030" (http:/ / www. architecture2030. org). . Retrieved
2007-02-23.
[43] Robert H. Socolow (July 2005). "Can We Bury Global Warming?". Scientific American: 42.
[44] utility company Luminant (http:/ / www. luminant. com/ )'s pilot version at its Big Brown Steam Electric Station (http:/ / www. luminant.
com/ plants/ big_brown. aspx) in Fairfield, Texas
[45] Skyonic (http:/ / www. skyonic. com/ theCompany. php) plans to circumvent storage problems of liquid CO2 by storing baking soda in
mines, landfills, or simply to be sold as industrial or food-grade baking soda.
[46] GreenFuel Technologies Corp. (http:/ / www. greenfuelonline. com/ index. html)
[47] Potent greenhouse-gas methane has been rising | csmonitor.com (http:/ / www. csmonitor. com/ 2008/ 0428/ p01s04-wogi. html)
[48] Norman Baker and Ben Bradshaw (4 July 2005). "Carbon Sequestration" (http:/ / www. theyworkforyou. com/ wrans/ ?id=2005-07-04a.
7044. h). . Retrieved 2008-07-08.
[49] "Bureau of Economic Geology Receives $38 Million for First Large-Scale U.S. Test Storing Carbon Dioxide Underground" (http:/ / www.
jsg. utexas. edu/ news/ rels/ 102407. html)
[50] http:/ / www. sseb. org/ currentprograms/ cpa_cmi. htm
[51] "Carbon-capture Technology To Help UK Tackle Global Warming" (http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com/ releases/ 2007/ 07/ 070727091001.
htm). ScienceDaily. July 27, 2007. .
[52] CBC News (http:/ / www. cbc. ca/ technology/ story/ 2008/ 02/ 15/ tech-carbon-capture. html) article New materials can selectively capture
CO2, scientists say published February 15, 2008
[53] Knorr, W. (2009). "Is the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions increasing?". Geophysical Research Letters 36 (21): L21710.
Bibcode 2009GeoRL..3621710K. doi:10.1029/2009GL040613. [ Controversial new climate change results (http:/ / www. bris. ac. uk/ news/
2009/ 6649. html) Lay summary] (9 November 2009).
External links
General
• Carbon Sequestration News (http://www.jsg.utexas.edu/carboncapture/carbonsequestration.html) Recent
news articles on CO2 capture and storage.
• Gulf Coast Carbon Center (http://www.beg.utexas.edu/environqlty/co201.htm) University of Texas at Austin
research center that investigates geologic storage of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the Gulf Coast region.
• SinksWatch (http://www.sinkswatch.org/) - An initiative to track and scrutinize carbon sink projects
• National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Carbon Sequestration Home Page (http://www.netl.doe.gov/
technologies/carbon_seq/index.html)
• U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science Carbon Sequestration Research Programs (http://cdiac2.esd.
ornl.gov/)
• "U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory - Carbon Sequestration Technology
Roadmap" (http://web.archive.org/web/20070604191032/http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/
carbon_seq/2005_roadmap_for_web.pdf) (PDF). Archived from the original (http://www.netl.doe.gov/
publications/carbon_seq/2005_roadmap_for_web.pdf) on 2007-06-04.
• The Carbon Offset Opportunity Program: A Tool for Collaborative Carbon Sequestration Project Development
(http://www.offsetopportunity.com/)
• Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies Program at MIT (http://sequestration.mit.edu/)
Carbon sink 544
Research
• Short documentary on Australian research into limits on carbon uptake by trees (http://www.abc.net.au/
catalyst/stories/s1901661.htm)
• FAO (2004) Carbon sequestration in dryland soils (http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/y5738e/y5738e00.htm)
• IEA Reports: Putting carbon back into the ground (pdf) (http://www.ieagreen.org.uk/putcback.pdf) and
Ocean storage of CO2 (pdf) (http://www.ieagreen.org.uk/oceanrep.pdf)
• Haszeldine (2005) Deep geological CO2 storage: principles, and prospecting for bio-energy disposal sites (pdf)
(http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/research/subsurface/diagenesis/CO2_sites_biofuel.pdf)
• The Role of Carbon in Agricultural Soils in Carbon Sequestration - A Better Alternative for Climate Change?
Chapter 1: Agricultural Sinks (1999) University of Maryland pdf format (http://www.puaf.umd.edu/faculty/
nelson/carbseq/pdf/1.pdf) doc format (http://www.puaf.umd.edu/faculty/nelson/carbseq/CHAPTER 1.
doc)
• Schlesinger, W.H. 1991. Biogeochemistry: An Analysis of Global Change. Academic Press, San Diego.
• Peat bogs may be soaking up 10 to 20% of the excess CO2 generated by human activity (http://www.mcgill.ca/
reporter/32/15/roulet/)
• DMS and Climate (http://saga.pmel.noaa.gov/review/dms_climate.html)
• Carbon Store in U.S. Forests (http://www.ilea.org/birdsey/index.html)
Action
• Collection of recent news articles on CO2 capture and storage (http://pangea.stanford.edu/~mhesse/
NewsLinks.html)
• Britain entertains the idea (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3930245.stm)
• Gary Polakovic (February 20, 2004). "Canada places carbon dioxide underground to clean air" (http://
seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2001861641_carbon19.html). The Seattle Times. Retrieved
2010-08-13.
• United States pumps CO2 underground (http://www.csmonitor.com/2003/0624/p02s02-usgn.html)
• Observer 24 April 2005 Seabed supplies a cure for global warming crisis (http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/
2005/apr/24/environment.environment)
Carbon sink 545
• Tyndall Centre - Assessing the potential for geological carbon sequestration in the UK (http://www.tyndall.ac.
uk/publications/fact_sheets/t2_21.shtml)
Stabilization wedges
A stabilization wedge (or simply "wedge") is an action which incrementally reduces projected emissions. (The
name derives from the triangular shape of the gap between reduced and unreduced emissions trajectories, when
graphed over time.) For example, a reduction in electricity demand due to increased efficiency means that less
electricity needs to be generated and thus fewer emissions need to be produced. The term originates in the
Stabilization Wedge Game.
350 ppm
This is the target level advocated in a recent paper[1] by climate scientist James E. Hansen and others such as:
Rajendra Pachauri, the U.N.'s "top climate scientist" and leader of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC),[2] [3] [4] the Director of the University of Minnesota's Institute on the Environment, Jonathan Foley[5] ,[6]
President of the Pacific Institute Peter H. Gleick, and the Policy Director of the Brookings Institution's Climate and
Energy Economics Project Adele C. Morris.[7] This maximum level is advocated by the 350.org campaign, along
with other organizations such as the Tällberg Foundation.[8] A strategy proposed is (1) no further oil and gas
exploration (so that only already-known reserves will be consumed), (2) the elimination of all uncaptured burning of
coal by 2030, and (3) an intensive program of reforestation and biochar agriculture.
A mitigation scenario modeled by Malte Meinshausen et al. suggests that to stabilize CO2 at 350 ppm, we will need
to reduce emissions by slightly more than 5 per cent per year.[9]
Climate change mitigation scenarios 546
From an "energy technology and policy perspective", Joe Romm says a 350-ppm target will require eight wedges,
each saving 1 gigaton of carbon per year, by 2030, and another ten by 2060.[10]
At the 2008 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Poznań, Poland, the Least Developed Countries bloc
spoke in favor of a 350 ppm target.
Nicholas Stern of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, called the "world’s top climate
economist", endorses 350 ppm as “a very sensible long-term target.”[11]
Per "We can afford to save the planet" October 23, 2009 [12] Eban Goodstein, Frank Ackerman, Kristen Sheeran (of
the Economics for Equity and the Environment Network (E3)), and Lester R. Brown[13] per "We Only Have Months,
Not Years, To Save Civilization From Climate Change", November 2009 [14], are supporters of the 350 upper limit.
Per Will Steger Foundation Policy [15]: "Stabilize CO2 in the atmosphere at 350 ppm".
Barbara Kingsolver, Ed Begley, Bonnie Raitt Campaign to Cap Carbon Pollution at 350 PPM [16]
In her speech "The World's Tipping Point"[17], Bianca Jagger states “the safe upper limit for atmospheric CO2 is no
more than 350 ppm." and quotes the report "The Economics of 350: The Benefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization"
by Stephen J. DeCanio, Eban Goodstein, Richard B. Howarth, Richard B. Norgaard and Catherine S. Norman,
stressing " the need for immediate, direct intervention".
Worldchanging's Alex Steffen 350 ppm [18] also supports achieving the 350 ppm goal, such as in "Planetary
Boundaries and the New Generation Gap" [19]
Scientific American August 2010 ocean acidification article Threatening Oceans from the Inside Out: How
Acidification Affects Marine Life [20] Blue Ocean Institute authors Marah J. Hardt and Carl Safina support 350 ppm
as the maximum upper limit of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for marine life health, see page 72 in print.
450 ppm
The BLUE scenarios in the IEA's Energy Technology Perspectives publication of 2008 describe pathways to a
long-range concentration of 450 ppm. Joseph Romm has sketched how to achieve this target through the application
of 14 wedges.[21]
World Energy Outlook 2008, mentioned above, also describes a "450 Policy Scenario", in which extra energy
investments to 2030 amount to $9.3 trillion over the Reference Scenario. The scenario also features, after 2020, the
participation of major economies such as China and India in a global cap-and-trade scheme initially operating in
OECD and European Union countries.
550 ppm
This is the target advocated (as an upper bound) in the Stern Review. As approximately a doubling of CO2 levels
relative to preindustrial times, it implies a temperature increase of about three degrees, according to conventional estimates of climate sensitivity.
2 levels below 550 ppm.[22]
Pacala and Socolow list 15 "wedges", any 7 of which in combination should suffice to keep CO
The International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook report for 2008 describes a "Reference Scenario" for the
world's energy future "which assumes no new government policies beyond those already adopted by mid-2008", and
then a "550 Policy Scenario" in which further policies are adopted, a mixture of "cap-and-trade systems, sectoral
agreements and national measures". In the Reference Scenario, between 2006 and 2030 the world invests $26.3
trillion in energy-supply infrastructure; in the 550 Policy Scenario, a further $4.1 trillion is spent in this period,
mostly on efficiency increases which deliver fuel cost savings of over $7 trillion.[23]
Climate change mitigation scenarios 547
As a short-term focus
In a 2000 paper,[24] Hansen argued that the 0.75° rise in average global temperatures over the last 100 years has been
driven mainly by greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide, since warming due to CO2 had been offset by cooling
due to aerosols, implying the viability of a strategy initially based around reducing emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse
gases and of black carbon, focusing on CO2 only in the longer run.[25]
References
[1] Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? (http:/ / arxiv. org/ abs/ 0804. 1126)
[2] "Pachauri's call for 350ppm is breakthrough moment for climate movement" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2009/ aug/ 26/
pachauri-350ppm-breakthrough-climate). London: guardian.co.uk. 2009-08-26. . Retrieved 2009-09-15.
[3] Johnson, Keith (2009-08-25). "Climate Debate: IPCC Head Pachauri Joins the 350 Club - Environmental Capital - WSJ" (http:/ / blogs. wsj.
com/ environmentalcapital/ 2009/ 08/ 25/ climate-debate-ipcc-head-pachauri-joins-the-350-club/ ). blogs.wsj.com. . Retrieved 2009-09-15.
[4] "AFP: Top UN climate scientist backs ambitious CO2 cuts" (http:/ / www. google. com/ hostednews/ afp/ article/
ALeqM5hacayDuUcngLmhNkplHB5VtG5GNw). www.google.com. . Retrieved 2009-09-15.
[5] http:/ / www. scientificamerican. com/ article. cfm?id=boundaries-for-a-healthy-planet
[6] http:/ / environment. umn. edu/ about/ people. html
[7] http:/ / www. brookings. edu/ experts/ morrisa. aspx
[8] http:/ / www. tallbergfoundation. org/ TÄLLBERGINITIATIVES/ 350/ tabid/ 429/ Default. aspx
[9] Meinshausen, M., Hare, W., Wigley, T. M. M., Van Vuuren, D., Den Elzen, M. G. J. and Swart, R. (2006) Multi-gas Emissions Pathways to
Meet Climate Targets (http:/ / www. springerlink. com/ content/ 2185481704614445/ ?p=62e04c1bfacc449e929a9f9c61c0ebce& pi=4)
Climatic Change 75: 151–194
[10] An open letter to James Hansen on the real truth about stabilizing at 350 ppm (http:/ / climateprogress. org/ 2008/ 11/ 23/
an-open-letter-to-james-hansen-on-the-real-truth-about-stabilizing-at-350-ppm/ )
[11] http:/ / climateprogress. org/ 2009/ 09/ 09/ nicholas-stern-worlds-top-climate-economist-endorses-350-ppm-long-term-target/
[12] http:/ / www. washingtonpost. com/ wp-dyn/ content/ article/ 2009/ 10/ 22/ AR2009102204193. html
[13] http:/ / www. scribd. com/ doc/ 26831428/ From-Lester-R-Brown-Plan-B-2-0
[14] http:/ / www. countercurrents. org/ brown141109. htm
[15] http:/ / www. willstegerfoundation. org/ index. php/ policy
[16] http:/ / www. enn. com/ press_releases/ 3299
[17] http:/ / greenbuilders. ning. com/ profiles/ blogs/ bianca-jagger-speech
[18] http:/ / www. worldchanging. com/ archives/ 007744. html
[19] http:/ / www. worldchanging. com/ archives/ 010070. html
[20] http:/ / www. scientificamerican. com/ article. cfm?id=threatening-ocean-life
[21] http:/ / climateprogress. org/ 2008/ 04/ 22/ is-450-ppm-or-less-politically-possible-part-2-the-solution/ Is 450 ppm (or less) politically
possible? Part 2: The Solution
[22] http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ full/ 305/ 5686/ 968 Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years
with Current Technologies
[23] name="weo08">http:/ / www. iea. org/ weo/ docs/ weo2008/ fact_sheets_08. pdf World Energy Outlook 2008 Fact Sheet
[24] Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ content/ full/ 97/ 18/ 9875)
[25] Review of Hansen et al.: Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative Scenario (http:/ / ucsusa. wsm. ga3. org/ ssi/ archive/
ucs-review-for-alternative-scenario. html)
Drought tolerance 548
Drought tolerance
Drought tolerance refers to the degree to which a
plant is adapted to arid or drought conditions.
Desiccation tolerance is an extreme degree of drought
tolerance.[1] Plants naturally adapted to dry conditions
are called xerophytes.
Many adaptations for dry conditions are structural, including the following:
• Adaptations of the stomata to reduce water loss, such as reduced numbers or waxy surfaces.
• Water storage in succulent above-ground parts or water-filled tubers.
• Adaptations in the root system to increase water absorption.
• Trichomes (small hairs) on the leaves to absorb atmospheric water.
Importance in agriculture
Arid conditions can lower the yield of many crops. Plant breeding programs for improved yield during drought
conditions have great economic importance, and these programs may be broad in scope. For example, one study on
soybeans currently being conducted by the United States Department of Agriculture is scheduled to span several
years, with research taking place across that country, and has among its goals the identification of specific
mechanism by which soybeans resist wilting and of the specific genes for drought tolerance.[3]
Importance in horticulture
In landscapes in arid or drought-prone regions, drought tolerance is an important consideration in plant selection.
Xeriscaping is an approach to landscaping first developed in Denver, Colorado, a region with hot, dry summers. The
use of drought tolerant plants is essential to a successful xeriscape, which ideally requires no supplemental irrigation.
References
[1] Ars | Publication Request: Evolutionary Linkage Between Drought And Vegetative Desiccation Tolerance In Plants (http:/ / www. ars. usda.
gov/ research/ publications/ publications. htm?SEQ_NO_115=191622)
[2] Botany online: Photosynthesis - C3, C4 and CAM. Regulation of The Activity (http:/ / www. biologie. uni-hamburg. de/ b-online/ e24/ 24b.
htm)
[3] ARS Project: Drought Stress Tolerance for the Midwest and South; Soybean Variety Improvement (Continuation) (409278) (http:/ / www.
ars. usda. gov/ research/ projects/ projects. htm?accn_no=409278)
Irrigation 549
Irrigation
Irrigation may be defined as the science of artificial application of water to the land or soil. It is used to assist in the
growing of agricultural crops, maintenance of landscapes, and revegetation of disturbed soils in dry areas and during
periods of inadequate rainfall. Additionally, irrigation also has a few other uses in crop production, which include
protecting plants against frost,[1] suppressing weed growing in grain fields[2] and helping in preventing soil
consolidation.[3] In contrast, agriculture that relies only on direct rainfall is referred to as rain-fed or dryland farming.
Irrigation systems are also used for dust suppression, disposal of sewage, and in mining. Irrigation is often studied
together with drainage, which is the natural or artificial removal of surface and sub-surface water from a given area.
Irrigation is also a term used in medical/dental fields to refer to flushing and washing out anything with water or
another liquid.
Irrigation in a field in New Jersey, United States. An Irrigation sprinkler watering a lawn
The Qanats, developed in ancient Persia in about 800 BCE, are among
the oldest known irrigation methods still in use today. They are now
found in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. The system
comprises a network of vertical wells and gently sloping tunnels driven
into the sides of cliffs and steep hills to tap groundwater.[9] The noria, a
water wheel with clay pots around the rim powered by the flow of the
An example of irrigation system common in
stream (or by animals where the water source was still), was first
Indian subcontinent. Artistic impression on the
brought into use at about this time, by Roman settlers in North Africa. banks of Dal Lake, Kashmir, India.
By 150 BCE the pots were fitted with valves to allow smoother filling
as they were forced into the water.[10]
The irrigation works of ancient Sri Lanka, the earliest dating from
about 300 BCE, in the reign of King Pandukabhaya and under
continuous development for the next thousand years, were one of the
most complex irrigation systems of the ancient world. In addition to
underground canals, the Sinhalese were the first to build completely
artificial reservoirs to store water. Due to their engineering superiority
in this sector, they were often called 'masters of irrigation'. Most of
these irrigation systems still exist undamaged up to now, in
Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa, because of the advanced and precise Inside a karez tunnel at Turpan, China.
The oldest known hydraulic engineers of China were Sunshu Ao (6th century BCE) of the Spring and Autumn
Period and Ximen Bao (5th century BCE) of the Warring States period, both of whom worked on large irrigation
projects. In the Szechwan region belonging to the State of Qin of ancient China, the Dujiangyan Irrigation System
was built in 256 BCE to irrigate an enormous area of farmland that today still supplies water.[12] By the 2nd century
AD, during the Han Dynasty, the Chinese also used chain pumps that lifted water from lower elevation to higher
elevation.[13] These were powered by manual foot pedal, hydraulic waterwheels, or rotating mechanical wheels
pulled by oxen.[14] The water was used for public works of providing water for urban residential quarters and palace
gardens, but mostly for irrigation of farmland canals and channels in the fields.[15]
In 15th century Korea, the world's first water gauge, uryanggye (Korean:우량계), was discovered in 1441. The
inventor was Jang Yeong-sil, a Korean engineer of the Joseon Dynasty, under the active direction of the king, Sejong
the Great. It was installed in irrigation tanks as part of a nationwide system to measure and collect rainfall for
agricultural applications. With this instrument, planners and farmers could make better use of the information
gathered in the survey.[16]
In the Americas, extensive irrigation systems were created by numerous groups in prehistoric times. One example is
seen in the recent archaeological excavations near the Santa Cruz River in Tucson, Arizona. They have located a
village site dating from 4,000 years ago. The floodplain of the Santa Cruz River was extensively farmed during the
Early Agricultural period, circa 1200 BC to AD 150. These people constructed irrigation canals and grew corn,
beans, and other crops while gathering wild plants and hunting animals.
Irrigation 551
Present extent
In the middle of the 20th century, the advent of diesel and electric motors led for the first time to systems that could
pump groundwater out of major aquifers faster than it was recharged. This can lead to permanent loss of aquifer
capacity, decreased water quality, ground subsidence, and other problems. The future of food production in such
areas as the North China Plain, the Punjab, and the Great Plains of the US is threatened.
At the global scale 2,788,000 km² (689 million acres) of agricultural land was equipped with irrigation infrastructure
around the year 2000. About 68% of the area equipped for irrigation is located in Asia, 17% in America, 9% in
Europe, 5% in Africa and 1% in Oceania. The largest contiguous areas of high irrigation density are found in North
India and Pakistan along the rivers Ganges and Indus, in the Hai He, Huang He and Yangtze basins in China, along
the Nile river in Egypt and Sudan, in the Mississippi-Missouri river basin and in parts of California. Smaller
irrigation areas are spread across almost all populated parts of the world.[17]
Types
Various types of irrigation techniques differ in how the water
obtained from the source is distributed within the field. In general,
the goal is to supply the entire field uniformly with water, so that
each plant has the amount of water it needs, neither too much nor
too little.The modern methods are efficient enough to achieve this
goal.
Surface
In surface irrigation systems, water moves over and across the land
Basin flood irrigation of wheat.
by simple gravity flow in order to wet it and to infiltrate into the
soil. Surface irrigation can be subdivided into furrow, borderstrip
or basin irrigation. It is often called flood irrigation when the
irrigation results in flooding or near flooding of the cultivated
land. Historically, this has been the most common method of
irrigating agricultural land.
Where water levels from the irrigation source permit, the levels are
controlled by dikes, usually plugged by soil. This is often seen in
terraced rice fields (rice paddies), where the method is used to
flood or control the level of water in each distinct field. In some
cases, the water is pumped, or lifted by human or animal power to Irrigation of land in Punjab, Pakistan.
the level of the land.
Irrigation 552
Localized
Localized irrigation is a system where water is distributed under
low pressure through a piped network, in a pre-determined pattern,
and applied as a small discharge to each plant or adjacent to it.
Drip irrigation, spray or micro-sprinkler irrigation and bubbler
irrigation belong to this category of irrigation methods.[18]
Drip
Sprinkler
In sprinkler or overhead irrigation, water is piped to one or more
central locations within the field and distributed by overhead
high-pressure sprinklers or guns. A system utilizing sprinklers,
sprays, or guns mounted overhead on permanently installed risers
is often referred to as a solid-set irrigation system. Higher pressure
sprinklers that rotate are called rotors and are driven by a ball
drive, gear drive, or impact mechanism. Rotors can be designed to
rotate in a full or partial circle. Guns are similar to rotors, except
that they generally operate at very high pressures of 40 to
130 lbf/in² (275 to 900 kPa) and flows of 50 to 1200 US gal/min
Sprinkler irrigation of blueberries in Plainville, New
(3 to 76 L/s), usually with nozzle diameters in the range of 0.5 to York, United States.
1.9 inches (10 to 50 mm). Guns are used not only for irrigation,
but also for industrial applications such as dust suppression and
logging.
Irrigation 554
Center pivot
Sub-irrigation
Subirrigation also sometimes called seepage irrigation has been used for many years in field crops in areas with high
water tables. It is a method of artificially raising the water table to allow the soil to be moistened from below the
plants' root zone. Often those systems are located on permanent grasslands in lowlands or river valleys and combined
with drainage infrastructure. A system of pumping stations, canals, weirs and gates allows it to increase or decrease
the water level in a network of ditches and thereby control the water table.
Sub-irrigation is also used in commercial greenhouse production, usually for potted plants. Water is delivered from
below, absorbed upwards, and the excess collected for recycling. Typically, a solution of water and nutrients floods a
container or flows through a trough for a short period of time, 10–20 minutes, and is then pumped back into a
holding tank for reuse. Sub-irrigation in greenhouses requires fairly sophisticated, expensive equipment and
management. Advantages are water and nutrient conservation, and labor-saving through lowered system
maintenance and automation. It is similar in principle and action to subsurface drip irrigation.
Water scarcity
Fifty years ago, the common perception was that water was an infinite resource. At this time, there were fewer than
half the current number of people on the planet. People were not as wealthy as today, consumed fewer calories and
ate less meat, so less water was needed to produce their food. They required a third of the volume of water we
presently take from rivers. Today, the competition for water resources is much more intense. This is because there
are now nearly seven billion people on the planet, their consumption of water-thirsty meat and vegetables is rising,
and there is increasing competition for water from industry, urbanisation and biofuel crops. To avoid a global water
crisis, farmers will have to strive to increase productivity to meet growing demands for food, while industry and
cities find ways to use water more efficiently.[22]
Successful agriculture is dependent upon farmers having sufficient access to water. However, water scarcity is
already a critical constraint to farming in many parts of the world. Physical water scarcity is where there is not
enough water to meet all demands, including that needed for ecosystems to function effectively. Arid regions
frequently suffer from physical water scarcity. It also occurs where water seems abundant but where resources are
over-committed. This can happen where there is overdevelopment of hydraulic infrastructure, usually for irrigation.
Symptoms of physical water scarcity include environmental degradation and declining groundwater. Economic
scarcity, meanwhile, is caused by a lack of investment in water or insufficient human capacity to satisfy the demand
for water. Symptoms of economic water scarcity include a lack of infrastructure, with people often having to fetch
water from rivers for domestic and agricultural uses. Some 2.8 billion people currently live in water-scarce areas.[23]
combination of these.
Problems in irrigation
Main article: Environmental impacts of irrigation
Irrigation can lead to a number of problems:[24]
• Competition for surface water rights.
• Depletion of underground aquifers.
• Ground subsidence (e.g. New Orleans, Louisiana)
• Underirrigation or irrigation giving only just enough water for the plant (e.g. in drip line irrigation) gives poor soil
salinity control which leads to increased soil salinity with consequent build up of toxic salts on soil surface in
areas with high evaporation. This requires either leaching to remove these salts and a method of drainage to carry
the salts away. When using drip lines, the leaching is best done regularly at certain intervals (with only a slight
excess of water), so that the salt is flushed back under the plant's roots.[25] [26]
• Overirrigation because of poor distribution uniformity or management wastes water, chemicals, and may lead to
water pollution.
• Deep drainage (from over-irrigation) may result in rising water tables which in some instances will lead to
problems of irrigation salinity requiring watertable control by some form of subsurface land drainage.[27] [28]
• Irrigation with saline or high-sodium water may damage soil structure owing to the formation of alkaline soil
Academic resources
• Irrigation Science, ISSN: 1432-1319 (electronic) 0342-7188 (paper), Springer
• Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, ISSN: 0733-9437, ASCE Publications
Irrigation by country
• List of countries by irrigated land area
References
[1] Snyder, R. L.; Melo-Abreu, J. P. (2005). "Frost protection: fundamentals, practice, and economics – Volume 1" (ftp:/ / ftp. fao. org/ docrep/
fao/ 008/ y7223e/ y7223e00. pdf) (PDF). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. ISSN: 1684-8241.. .
[2] Williams, J. F.; S. R. Roberts, J. E. Hill, S. C. Scardaci, and G. Tibbits. "Managing Water for Weed Control in Rice" (http:/ / www.
plantsciences. ucdavis. edu/ uccerice/ WATER/ water. htm). UC Davis, Department of Plant Sciences. . Retrieved 2007-03-14.
[3] Arid environments becoming consolidated (http:/ / ngm. nationalgeographic. com/ 2008/ 09/ soil/ mann-text. html)
[4] The History of Technology – Irrigation. Encyclopædia Britannica, 1994 edition.
[5] Dillehay TD, Eling HH Jr, Rossen J (2005). "Preceramic irrigation canals in the Peruvian Andes". Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences 102 (47): 17241–4. doi:10.1073/pnas.0508583102. PMC 1288011. PMID 16284247.
[6] Rodda, J. C. and Ubertini, Lucio (2004). The Basis of Civilization - Water Science? pg 161. International Association of Hydrological
Sciences (International Association of Hydrological Sciences Press 2004).
Irrigation 559
[7] "Ancient India Indus Valley Civilization" (http:/ / www. mnsu. edu/ emuseum/ prehistory/ india/ indus/ elements. html). Minnesota State
University "e-museum". . Retrieved 2007-01-10.
[8] "Amenemhet III" (http:/ / concise. britannica. com/ ebc/ article-9006076/ Amenemhet-III). Britannica Concise. . Retrieved 2007-01-10.
[9] "Qanat Irrigation Systems and Homegardens (Iran)" (http:/ / www. fao. org/ sd/ giahs/ other_iran1_desc. asp). Globally Important Agriculture
Heritage Systems. UN Food and Agriculture Organization. . Retrieved 2007-01-10.
[10] Encyclopædia Britannica, 1911 and 1989 editions
[11] de Silva, Sena (1998). "Reservoirs of Sri Lanka and their fisheries" (http:/ / www. fao. org/ docrep/ 003/ T0028E/ T0028E03. htm). UN
Food and Agriculture Organization. . Retrieved 2007-01-10.
[12] China – history. Encyclopædia Britannica,1994 edition.
[13] Needham, Joseph (1986). Science and Civilization in China: Volume 4, Physics and Physical Technology, Part 2, Mechanical Engineering.
Taipei: Caves Books Ltd. Pages 344-346.
[14] Needham, Volume 4, Part 2, 340-343.
[15] Needham, Volume 4, Part 2, 33, 110.
[16] Baek Seok-gi 백석기 (1987). Jang Yeong-sil 장영실. Woongjin Wiin Jeon-gi 웅진위인전기 11. Woongjin Publishing Co., Ltd.
[17] Siebert, S.; J. Hoogeveen, P. Döll, J-M. Faurès, S. Feick, and K. Frenken (2006-11-10). "The Digital Global Map of Irrigation Areas –
Development and Validation of Map Version 4" (http:/ / www. tropentag. de/ 2006/ abstracts/ full/ 211. pdf) (PDF). Tropentag 2006 –
Conference on International Agricultural Research for Development. Bonn, Germany. . Retrieved 2007-03-14.
[18] Frenken, K. (2005). "Irrigation in Africa in figures – AQUASTAT Survey – 2005" (ftp:/ / ftp. fao. org/ agl/ aglw/ docs/ wr29_eng. pdf)
(PDF). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. ISBN 92-5-105414-2. . Retrieved 2007-03-14.
[19] polyester ropes natural irrigation technique (http:/ / www. entheogen. com/ forum/ showthread. php?t=13076)
[20] Polyester rope natural irrigation technique 2 (http:/ / diyrecipes. com/ diy/ gr_tools/ article/ 0,2029,DIY_13860_2270424,00. html)
[21] DIY instructions for making sel-watering system using ropes (http:/ / www. instructables. com/ id/
Self-watering-recycled-plant-pot-for-growing-herbs/ ?utm_source=rss& utm_medium=rss)
[22] Chartres, C. and Varma, S. Out of water. From Abundance to Scarcity and How to Solve the World’s Water Problems FT Press (USA), 2010
[23] Molden, D. (Ed). Water for food, Water for life: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture. Earthscan/IWMI, 2007.
[24] ILRI, 1989, Effectiveness and Social/Environmental Impacts of Irrigation Projects: a Review. In: Annual Report 1988, International Institute
for Land Reclamation and Improvement (ILRI), Wageningen, The Netherlands, pp. 18 - 34 . On line: (http:/ / www. waterlog. info/ pdf/ irreff.
pdf)
[25] EOS magazine, september 2009
[26] World Water Council
[27] Drainage Manual: A Guide to Integrating Plant, Soil, and Water Relationships for Drainage of Irrigated Lands. Interior Dept., Bureau of
Reclamation. 1993. ISBN 0-16-061623-9
[28] "Free articles and software on drainage of waterlogged land and soil salinity control in irrgated land" (http:/ / www. waterlog. info). .
Retrieved 2010-07-28.
External links
• "Irrigation techniques" (http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/irmethods.html). USGS. Retrieved December 8, 2005.
• Sulama Sistemleri Portalı (http://www.sulamasistemleri.biz) — 19th century Irrigation in India
• Royal Engineers Museum (http://www.remuseum.org.uk/corpshistory/rem_corps_part12.htm) — 19th
century Irrigation in India
• International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) (http://www.icid.org)
• Irrigation (http://www.nal.usda.gov/wqic/irri.shtml) at the Water Quality Information Center, U.S.
Department of Agriculture
• AQUASTAT (http://www.fao.org/ag/agl/aglw/aquastat/main/index.stm) — FAO's global information
system on water and agriculture
This article incorporates text from a publication now in the public domain: Chisholm, Hugh, ed (1911).
Encyclopædia Britannica (Eleventh ed.). Cambridge University Press.
Rainwater tank 560
Rainwater tank
Some of the rainwater tanks around CERES Community Environment Park, in Melbourne, Australia.
A rainwater tank (sometimes called rain barrels in North America or a water butt in the UK) is a water tank which
is used to collect and store rain water runoff, typically from rooftops via rain gutters. Rainwater tanks are devices for
collecting and maintaining harvested rain.
Rainwater tanks are installed to make use of rain water for later use, reduce mains water use for economic or
environmental reasons, and aid self-sufficiency. Stored water may be used for watering gardens, agriculture, flushing
toilets, in washing machines, washing cars, and also for drinking, especially when other water supplies are
unavailable, expensive, or of poor quality, and that adequate care is taken that the water is not contaminated or the
water is adequately filtered.
In ground rainwater tanks can also be used for retention of stormwater for release at a later time. In arid climates,
rain barrels are often used to store water during the rainy season for use during dryer periods.
Rainwater tanks may have a high (perceived) initial cost. However, many homes use small scale rain barrels to
harvest minute quantities of water for landscaping/gardening applications rather than as a potable water surrogate.
These small rain barrels, often recycled from food storage and transport barrels or, in some cases, whiskey and wine
aging barrels, are often inexpensive. There are also many low cost designs that use locally available materials and
village level technologies for applications in Developing Countries where there are limited alternatives for potable
drinking water.[1] While most are properly engineered to screen out mosquitoes, the lack of proper filtering or closed
loop systems may create breeding grounds for larvae. With tanks used for drinking water, the user runs a health risk
if maintenance is not carried out.[2]
detergents and other chemicals dissolve in the runoff. Runoff from fibrous cement roofs should be discarded for an
entire winter, due to leaching of lime. Chemically treated timbers and lead flashing should not be used in roof
catchments. Likewise, rainwater should not be collected from parts of the roof incorporating flues from wood
burners. Overflows or discharge pipes from roof-mounted appliances such as air-conditioners or hot-water systems
should not have their discharge feed into a rainwater tank.
Copper Poisoning, a recent news article linked copper poisoning to plastic tanks, the article indicated that rainwater
was collected and stored in plastic tanks and that the tank did nothing to mitigate the low pH. [6] The water was then
brought into homes and copper piping, the copper was released by the high acid rainwater and caused poisoning in
humans. It is important to note that while the plastic tank is an inert container, the collected acid rain could and
should be analyzed, and pH adjusted before being brought into a domestic water supply system. The solution is to
monitor stored rainwater with swimming pool strips, cheap and available at swimming pool supply outlets.
If the water is too acidic, state/county/local health officials may be contacted to obtain advice and precise solutions
and pH limits and guidelines as to what should be used to treat rainwater to be used as domestic drinking water.
Maintenance includes checking roofs and rain gutters for vegetation and debris, maintaining screens around the tank,
and occasionally desludging (removing sediment by draining and cleaning the tank of algae and other contaminants).
Rainwater tanks which are not properly sealed (secured at the top) may act as breeding grounds for mosquitoes.[7]
Tanks
Rainwater tanks may be constructed from materials such as plastic
(polyethylene), concrete, galvanized steel, as well as fiberglass and
stainless steel which are rust and chemical-resistant. Tanks are usually
installed above ground, and are usually opaque to prevent the exposure
of stored water to sunlight, to decrease algal bloom.[3]
Tanks may be covered and have screen inlets to exclude insects, debris,
animals and bird droppings. Almost all steel tanks currently produced
for household rainwater collection come with a plastic inner lining to
increase the life of the tank, prevent leaks and protect the water quality.
Apart from rooftops, tanks may also be set up to collect rainwater from
concrete patios, driveways and other impervious surfaces. A plastic water container
tanks can be placed (so that more rain can be gathered at times when it does rain). Also affecting tank size is
predicted rainfall and rainfall variability; the higher prices for larger tanks; intended use of rainwater and typical
consumption for these uses; the area of roof draining into the tank; security of supply desired.
One of the greatest revolutions in the ability of harvesting rain water has been the invention of modular, scalable
systems which are installable underground. These came as an evolution of a geosynthetic applications called
drainage cells, which when stacked provide a void space volume which allows for the storing of water. Improved
and more cost effective industrial design now allow for theoretically limitless storage of water underground.
Examples of these modular structures are Atlantis Matrix Tanks[10] used in the Stormwater Treatment and Re-use
project [11], of Manly Council in Australia.
Colorado law
In the State of Colorado, USA, the installation of rainwater collection barrels is subject to the Constitution of the
State of Colorado, state statutes and case law [13] . This is a consequence of the system of water rights in the state;
the movement and holding of rainwater is inextricably linked with ownership of water rights and is enshrined in the
constitution of the State of Colorado. The use of water in Colorado and other western states is governed by what is
known as the prior appropriation doctrine. This system of water allocation controls who uses how much water, the
types of uses allowed, and when those waters can be used. This is often referred to as the priority system or "first in
time, first in right." Since all water arriving in Colorado has been allocated to "senior water right holders" since the
1850s, rainwater prevented from running downstream may not be available to its rightful owner. In 2009, legislation
in Colorado was enacted that permits capture of rain water for residential use subject to strong limitations and
conditions.[14] In order to be permitted, a residence may not be connected to a domestic water supply system serving
more than 3 single-family dwellings. The permit must be purchased from the State Engineer's office and is subject to
water usage restrictions.[15]
Rainwater tank 563
References
[1] Camilli, Luis (2000) Rainwater Harvesting: constructing a cistern and gutter system using village technologies and materials [Maji Safi
Rainwater Harvesting Manual| http:/ / www. scribd. com/ doc/ 11630903/ Maji-Safi-Rainwater-Harvesting-Manual-Kiswahili-English]
[2] "Rainwater, Fact Sheet" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070216210324/ http:/ / www. greenhouse. gov. au/ yourhome/ technical/ fs22.
htm). greenhouse.gov.au: Your Home Technical Manual. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. greenhouse. gov. au/ yourhome/ technical/
fs22. htm) on 2007-02-16. . Retrieved 2007-02-17.
[3] TWDB; Chris Brown Consulting, Jan Gerston Consulting, Stephen Colley/Architecture, Dr. Hari J. Krishna, P.E., Contract Manager (2005).
The Texas Manual on Rainwater Harvesting (http:/ / www. twdb. state. tx. us/ publications/ reports/ RainwaterHarvestingManual_3rdedition.
pdf). Texas Water Development Board. p. 88 pages. .
[4] "Buying guide: Rainwater tanks" (http:/ / www. choice. com. au/ viewArticle. aspx?id=104499). CHOICE magazine. . Retrieved 2007-02-10.
[5] M.I. Magyar; V.G. Mitchell, A.R. Ladson, C. Diaper (2008). "Lead and other heavy metals: common contaminants of rainwater tanks in
Melbourne" (http:/ / www. csiro. au/ files/ files/ pk7r. pdf) (pdf). Water Down Under 2008 (CSIRO): 415. . "Aluminium and cadmium can be
an impurity in zinc galvanised iron roofs (Gromaire et al., 2001, Van Metre and Mahler, 2003) and therefore found in collected tank rainwater.
Indeed, in Study 2, the tank with high concentration of Cd collected water from a galvanised iron roof."
[6] "Copper poisoning linked to plastic water tanks" (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ local/ stories/ 2010/ 11/ 24/ 3075218. htm). ABC South East
NSW. . Retrieved 2010-11-28.
[7] The Sunday Age. November 25, 2007. "These flies! Will mozzies be next?". Stephen Cauchi quoting Luke Simpkin, Museum Victoria.
[8] (http:/ / www. atlantiscorp. com. au/ case_studies/ Case_Study_Rainwater_Harvesting_Amberley_QLD_AUSTRALIA. pdf)
[9] (http:/ / www. treehugger. com/ files/ 2007/ 12/ how_design_can. php)
[10] (http:/ / www. atlantiscorp. com. au/ case_studies/ Case_Study_Rainwater_Harvesting_Manly_NSW_Australia. pdf) Case study of use of
Matrix Tanks for stormwater harvesting
[11] http:/ / www. manly. nsw. gov. au/ content. aspx?pageid=712|Manly
[12] "Energy efficiency for Victoria, action plan" (http:/ / www. sustainability. vic. gov. au/ resources/ documents/ Energy_Effeciency. pdf)
(pdf). . Retrieved 2007-05-22.
[13] "Water harvesting in Colorado" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070816004100/ http:/ / water. state. co. us/ pubs/ policies/
waterharvesting. pdf) (pdf). Archived from the original (http:/ / water. state. co. us/ pubs/ policies/ waterharvesting. pdf) on 2007-08-16. .
Retrieved 2007-08-30.
[14] Colorado Division of Water Resources (2009-07-01). "New information on rainwater collection legislation" (http:/ / water. state. co. us/
pubs/ pdf/ RainWaterBills. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-07-13.
[15] Colorado General Assembly (2009-07-01). "Colorado Senate Bill 09-080" (http:/ / www. leg. state. co. us/ clics/ clics2009a/ csl. nsf/
billcontainers/ 49D4349AC4A73794872575370071F5D4/ $FILE/ 080_enr. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-11-07.
[16] (http:/ / www. thecoolhunter. net/ eco-world/ ECO-HOME/ )
[17] materialicious » Blog Archive » cape schanck house, paul morgan architects (http:/ / materialicio. us/ 2008/ 02/ 07/
cape-schank-house-paul-morgan-architects/ )
[18] architecture.com.au - The Royal Australian Institute of Architects (RAIA), architecture, architects, design, australia (http:/ / www.
globalconstruct. net/ awards_search?option=showaward& entryno=2007030374)
Rainwater tank 564
External links
Sustainable development
Sustainable development (SD) is a pattern
of resource use, that aims to meet human
needs while preserving the environment so
that these needs can be met not only in the
present, but also for generations to come
(sometimes taught as ELF-Environment,
Local people, Future). The term was used by
the Brundtland Commission which coined
what has become the most often-quoted
definition of sustainable development as
development that "meets the needs of the
present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own
Solar towers utilize the natural resource of the Sun, and are a renewable energy
needs."[1] [2] source. From left: PS10 and PS20 solar towers.
According to Hasna Vancock, sustainability is a process which tells of a development of all aspects of human life
affecting sustenance. It means resolving the conflict between the various competing goals, and involves the
simultaneous pursuit of economic prosperity, environmental quality and social equity famously known as three
dimensions (triple bottom line) with the resultant vector being technology, hence it is a continually evolving process;
the 'journey' (the process of achieving sustainability) is of course vitally important, but only as a means of getting to
the destination (the desired future state). However, the 'destination' of sustainability is not a fixed place in the normal
sense that we understand destination. Instead, it is a set of wishful characteristics of a future system.[10]
Sustainable development 567
Some research activities start from this definition to argue that the
environment is a combination of nature and culture. The Network of
Excellence "Sustainable Development in a Diverse World",[11]
sponsored by the European Union, integrates multidisciplinary The natural resource of wind powers these 5MW
wind turbines on this wind farm 28 km off the
capacities and interprets cultural diversity as a key element of a new
coast of Belgium.
strategy for sustainable development.
Still other researchers view environmental and social challenges as opportunities for development action. This is
particularly true in the concept of sustainable enterprise that frames these global needs as opportunities for private
enterprise to provide innovative and entrepreneurial solutions. This view is now being taught at many business
schools including the Center for Sustainable Global Enterprise at Cornell University and the Erb Institute for Global
Sustainable Enterprise at the University of Michigan.
The United Nations Division for Sustainable Development lists the following areas as coming within the scope of
sustainable development:[12]
Sustainable development is an eclectic concept, as a wide array of views fall under its umbrella. The concept has
included notions of weak sustainability, strong sustainability and deep ecology. Different conceptions also reveal a
strong tension between ecocentrism and anthropocentrism. Many definitions and images (Visualizing Sustainability)
[13]
of sustainable development coexist. Broadly defined, the sustainable development mantra enjoins current
generations to take a systems approach to growth and development and to manage natural, produced, and social
capital for the welfare of their own and future generations.
During the last ten years, different organizations have tried to measure and monitor the proximity to what they
consider sustainability by implementing what has been called sustainability metrics and indices.[14]
Sustainable development is said to set limits on the developing world. While current first world countries polluted
significantly during their development, the same countries encourage third world countries to reduce pollution,
which sometimes impedes growth. Some consider that the implementation of sustainable development would mean a
reversion to pre-modern lifestyles.[15]
Others have criticized the overuse of the term:
"[The] word sustainable has been used in too many situations today, and ecological sustainability is one of
those terms that confuse a lot of people. You hear about sustainable development, sustainable growth,
sustainable economies, sustainable societies, sustainable agriculture. Everything is sustainable (Temple,
1992)."[15]
Sustainable development 568
Environmental sustainability
Environmental sustainability is the process of making sure
current processes of interaction with the environment are
pursued with the idea of keeping the environment as pristine
as naturally possible based on ideal-seeking behavior.
An "unsustainable situation" occurs when natural capital (the
sum total of nature's resources) is used up faster than it can be
replenished. Sustainability requires that human activity only
uses nature's resources at a rate at which they can be
replenished naturally. Inherently the concept of sustainable
development is intertwined with the concept of carrying
capacity. Theoretically, the long-term result of environmental
degradation is the inability to sustain human life. Such
degradation on a global scale could imply extinction for
humanity.
Water is an important natural resource that covers 71% of
the Earth's surface. Image is the Earth photographed from
Apollo 17.
Another problem of natural and social capital deterioration lies in their partial irreversibility. The loss in biodiversity,
for example, is often definite. The same can be true for cultural diversity. For example with globalisation advancing
quickly the number of indigenous languages is dropping at alarming rates. Moreover, the depletion of natural and
social capital may have non-linear consequences. Consumption of natural and social capital may have no observable
impact until a certain threshold is reached. A lake can, for example, absorb nutrients for a long time while actually
increasing its productivity. However, once a certain level of algae is reached lack of oxygen causes the lake’s
ecosystem to break down suddenly.
Market failure
If the degradation of natural and social capital has such
important consequence the question arises why action is
not taken more systematically to alleviate it. Cohen and
Winn (2007)[18] point to four types of market failure as
possible explanations: First, while the benefits of natural
or social capital depletion can usually be privatized the
costs are often externalized (i.e. they are borne not by the
party responsible but by society in general). Second,
natural capital is often undervalued by society since we
are not fully aware of the real cost of the depletion of
natural capital. Information asymmetry is a third Before flue gas desulfurization was installed, the air-polluting
reason—often the link between cause and effect is emissions from this power plant in New Mexico contained
excessive amounts of sulfur dioxide.
obscured, making it difficult for actors to make informed
choices. Cohen and Winn close with the realization that
contrary to economic theory many firms are not perfect optimizers. They postulate that firms often do not optimize
resource allocation because they are caught in a "business as usual" mentality.
Similar to the eco-efficiency concept but so far less explored is the second criterion for corporate sustainability.
Socio-efficiency[21] describes the relation between a firm's value added and its social impact. Whereas, it can be
assumed that most corporate impacts on the environment are negative (apart from rare exceptions such as the
planting of trees) this is not true for social impacts. These can be either positive (e.g. corporate giving, creation of
employment) or negative (e.g. work accidents, mobbing of employees, human rights abuses). Depending on the type
of impact socio-efficiency thus either tries to minimize negative social impacts (i.e. accidents per value added) or
maximise positive social impacts (i.e. donations per value added) in relation to the value added.
Both eco-efficiency and socio-efficiency are concerned primarily with increasing economic sustainability. In this
process they instrumentalize both natural and social capital aiming to benefit from win-win situations. However, as
Dyllick and Hockerts[21] point out the business case alone will not be sufficient to realise sustainable development.
They point towards eco-effectiveness, socio-effectiveness, sufficiency, and eco-equity as four criteria that need to be
Sustainable development 570
Purpose
Various writers have commented on the population
control agenda that seems to underlie the concept of
sustainable development. Maria Sophia Aguirre
writes:[22]
"Sustainable development is a policy
approach that has gained quite a lot of
popularity in recent years, especially in
international circles. By attaching a
Deforestation and increased road-building in the Amazon Rainforest
specific interpretation to sustainability,
are a significant concern because of increased human encroachment
population control policies have become upon wilderness areas, increased resource extraction and further
the overriding approach to development, threats to biodiversity.
thus becoming the primary tool used to
“promote” economic development in developing countries and to protect the environment."
Mary Jo Anderson suggests that the real purpose of sustainable development is to contain and limit economic
development in developing countries, and in so doing control population growth.[23] It is suggested that this is the
reason the main focus of most programs is still on low-income agriculture. Joan Veon, a businesswoman and
international reporter, who covered 64 global meetings on sustainable development posits that:[24]
"Sustainable development has continued to evolve as that of protecting the world's resources while its
true agenda is to control the world's resources. It should be noted that Agenda 21 sets up the global
infrastructure needed to manage, count, and control all of the world's assets."
Consequences
John Baden[25] views the notion of sustainable
development as dangerous because the consequences
have unknown effects. He writes: "In economy like in
ecology, the interdependence rule applies. Isolated
actions are impossible. A policy which is not carefully
enough thought will carry along various perverse and
adverse effects for the ecology as much as for the
economy. Many suggestions to save our environment
and to promote a model of 'sustainable development' The retreat of Aletsch Glacier in the Swiss Alps (situation in 1979,
risk indeed leading to reverse effects."[26] Moreover, he 1991 and 2002) due to warming.
evokes the bounds of public action which are
underlined by the public choice theory: the quest by politicians of their own interests, lobby pressure, partial
disclosure etc. He develops his critique by noting the vagueness of the expression, which can cover anything . It is a
gateway to interventionist proceedings which can be against the principle of freedom and without proven efficacy.
Sustainable development 571
Against this notion, he is a proponent of private property to impel the producers and the consumers to save the
natural resources. According to Baden, “the improvement of environment quality depends on the market economy
and the existence of legitimate and protected property rights.” They enable the effective practice of personal
responsibility and the development of mechanisms to protect the environment. The State can in this context “create
conditions which encourage the people to save the environment.”[27]
Basis
Sylvie Brunel, French geographer and specialist of the Third World, develops in A qui profite le développement
durable (Who benefits from sustainable development?) (2008) a critique of the basis of sustainable development,
with its binary vision of the world, can be compared to the Christian vision of Good and Evil, an idealized nature
where the human being is an animal like the others or even an alien. Nature – as Rousseau thought – is better than
the human being. It is a parasite, harmful for the nature. But the human is the one who protects the biodiversity,
where normally only the strong survive.[31]
Moreover, she thinks that the core ideas of sustainable development are a hidden form of protectionism by developed
countries impeding the development of the other countries.[how?] For Sylvie Brunel, sustainable development serves
as a pretext for protectionism and "I have the feeling that sustainable development is perfectly helping out
capitalism".[31]
"De-growth"
The proponents of the de-growth reckon that the term of sustainable development is an oxymoron. According to
them, on a planet where 20% of the population consumes 80% of the natural resources, a sustainable development
cannot be possible for this 20%: "According to the origin of the concept of sustainable development, a development
which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs,
the right term for the developed countries should be a sustainable de-growth".[32]
Sustainable development 572
Measurability
In 2007 a report for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency stated: “While much discussion and effort has gone
into sustainability indicators, none of the resulting systems clearly tells us whether our society is sustainable. At best,
they can tell us that we are heading in the wrong direction, or that our current activities are not sustainable. More
often, they simply draw our attention to the existence of problems, doing little to tell us the origin of those problems
and nothing to tell us how to solve them.”[33] Nevertheless a majority of authors assume that a set of well defined and
harmonised indicators is the only way to make sustainability tangible. Those indicators are expected to be identified
and adjusted through empirical observations (trial and error)[34] see also Ecological footprint.
The most common critiques are related to issues like data quality, comparability, objective function and the
necessary resources.[35] However a more general criticism is coming from the project management community: How
can a sustainable development be achieved at global level if we cannot monitor it in any single project?[36] [37]
The Cuban-born researcher and entrepreneur Sonia Bueno suggests an alternative approach that is based upon the
integral, long-term cost-benefit relationship as a measure and monitoring tool for the sustainability of every project,
activity or enterprise.[38] [39] Furthermore this concept aims to be a practical guideline towards sustainable
development following the principle of conservation and increment of value rather than restricting the consumption
of resources.
References
[1] United Nations. 1987. "Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development." (http:/ / www. un. org/ documents/ ga/ res/ 42/
ares42-187. htm) General Assembly Resolution 42/187, 11 December 1987. Retrieved: 2007-04-12
[2] Smith, Charles; Rees, Gareth (1998). Economic Development, 2nd edition. Basingstoke: Macmillan. ISBN 0333722280.
[3] Stivers, R. 1976. The Sustainable Society: Ethics and Economic Growth. Philadelphia: Westminster Press.
[4] Daly, H. E. 1973. Towards a Steady State Economy. San Francisco: Freeman. Daly, H. E. 1991. Steady-State Economics (2nd ed.).
Washington, D.C.: Island Press.
[5] Ott, K. (2003). "The Case for Strong Sustainability." (http:/ / umwethik. botanik. uni-greifswald. de/ booklet/ 8_strong_sustainability. pdf) In:
Ott, K. & P. Thapa (eds.) (2003).Greifswald’s Environmental Ethics. Greifswald: Steinbecker Verlag Ulrich Rose. ISBN 3931483320.
Retrieved on: 2009-02-16.
[6] http:/ / cmsdata. iucn. org/ downloads/ iucn_future_of_sustanability. pdf
[7] Our Common Future, Chapter 2: Towards Sustainable Development (http:/ / www. un-documents. net/ ocf-02. htm)
[8] 2005 World Summit Outcome Document (http:/ / www. who. int/ hiv/ universalaccess2010/ worldsummit. pdf), World Health Organization,
15 September 2005
[9] Will Allen. 2007. "Learning for Sustainability: Sustainable Development." (http:/ / learningforsustainability. net/ susdev/ )
[10] Hasna, A. M. (2007). "Dimensions of sustainability". Journal of Engineering for Sustainable Development: Energy, Environment, and
Health 2 (1): 47–57.
[11] SUS.DIV (http:/ / www. susdiv. org/ )
[12] United Nations Division for sustainable Development. Documents: Sustainable Development Issues (http:/ / www. un. org/ esa/ sustdev/
documents/ docs_sdissues. htm) Retrieved: 2007-05-12
[13] http:/ / computingforsustainability. wordpress. com/ 2009/ 03/ 15/ visualising-sustainability/
[14] Boulanger, P. M. (2008) “Sustainable development indicators: a scientific challenge, a democratic issue”. S.A.P.I.EN.S. 1 (1) (http:/ / sapiens.
revues. org/ index166. html)
[15] What Is Sustainable Development? (http:/ / www. menominee. edu/ sdi/ whatis. htm)
[16] Dyllick, T. & Hockerts, K. 2002. Beyond the business case for corporate sustainability. Business Strategy and the Environment, 11(2):
130-141
[17] Daly, H. E. 1973. Towards a Steady State Economy. San Francisco: Freeman.
[18] Cohen, B. & Winn, M. I. 2007. Market imperfections, opportunity and sustainable entrepreneurship. Journal of Business Venturing, 22(1):
29-49.
[19] Schaltegger, S. & Sturm, A. 1998. Eco-Efficiency by Eco-Controlling. Zürich: vdf.
[20] DeSimone, L. & Popoff, F. 1997. Eco-efficiency: The business link to sustainable development. Cambridge: MIT Press.
[21] Dyllick, T. & Hockerts, K. 2002. Beyond the business case for corporate sustainability. Business Strategy and the Environment, 11(2):
130-141.
[22] Aguirre, M.S., 2002. Sustainable development: why the focus on population? International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 29, 12: 923 -
945
[23] Anderson, M.J., 2002. Sustainable development (http:/ / www. wf-f. org/ 02-1-UNSustainableDev. html), WFF Voices Online Edition Vol.
XVII, 1.
[24] Sustainable development, Agenda 21 and Prince Charles (http:/ / www. newswithviews. com/ Veon/ joan19. htm)
[25] chairman of the Foundation for Research on Economics and the Environment (FREE)
[26] Euro92.com (http:/ / www. euro92. com/ acrob/ baden. pdf), "L'économie politique du développement durable", John Baden, document de
l'ICREI
[27] « L'économie politique du développement durable (http:/ / www. euro92. com/ acrob/ baden. pdf) », John Baden, document de l'ICREI
[28] « À quoi sert le développement durable ? » (http:/ / www. manicore. com/ documentation/ dd. html)
[29] « Protéger l'espèce humaine contre elle-même », entretien avec Luc Ferry dans la Revue des Deux Mondes, octobre-novembre 2007,
pp.75-79
[30] Duncan Taylor, “Disagreeing on the Basics: Environmental Debates Reflect Competing World Views, Alternatives, 1992.
[31] « Les enjeux internationaux », entretien avec Sylvie Brunel sur France Culture, 11 juin 2008
[32] Bruno Clémentin et Vincent Cheynet, Contre le développement durable (http:/ / www. decroissance. org/ index. php?chemin=textes/
dev_en_question. htm)
[33] Joy E. Hecht, Can Indicators and Accounts Really Measure Sustainability? Considerations for the U.S. Environmental Protection (http:/ /
www. epa. gov/ sustainability/ pdfs/ hecht-epa-ord-paper. pdf)
[34] KM.FAO.org (http:/ / km. fao. org/ uploads/ media/ An adaptative learning process for developing and applying sustainability indicators
with local communities. pdf) "An adaptive learning process for developing and applying sustainability indicators with local communities".
Ecological economics 59 (2006) 406-418
[35] Annette Lang, Ist Nachhaltigkeit messbar?, Uni Hannover, 2003 (http:/ / www. nse-netz. de/ downloads/ nachh. pdf)
[36] Project Management T-kit, Council of Europe and European Commission, Strasbourg, 2000 (http:/ / youth-partnership-eu. coe. int/
youth-partnership/ documents/ Publications/ T_kits/ 3/ tkit3. pdf)
Sustainable development 574
[37] Do global targets matter?, The Environment Times, Poverty Times #4, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2010 (http:/ / www. grida. no/ publications/
et/ ep4/ page/ 2653. aspx)
[38] Sostenibilidad en la construcción. Calidad integral y rentabilidad en instalaciones hidro-sanitarias, Revista de Arquitectura e Ingeniería,
Matanzas, 2009 (http:/ / www. empai-matanzas. co. cu/ revista/ REVISTA_archivos/ Page969. htm)
[39] Transforming the water and waste water infrastructure into an efficient, profitable and sustainable system, Revista de Arquitectura e
Ingeniería, Matanzas, 2010 (http:/ / www. empai-matanzas. co. cu/ revista/ Artic_PDF/ ART5. pdf)
[40] Visualising Sustainability (http:/ / computingforsustainability. wordpress. com/ 2009/ 03/ 15/ visualising-sustainability/ ). Posted by Samuel
Mann under Computing for Sustainability, visualisingsustainability
[41] Barbier, E.,1987. The Concept of Sustainable Economic Development. Environmental Conservation, 14(2):101-110
[42] Pearce, D., A. Markandya and E. Barbier,1989. Blueprint for a green economy, Earthscan, London, Great Britain
[43] Hamilton, K., and M. Clemens,1999. Genuine savings rates in developing countries. World Bank Econ Review, 13(2):333–56
[44] Dasgupta, P. 2007. The idea of sustainable development,Sustainability Science, 2(1):5-11
[45] Heal, G., 2009. Climate Economics: A Meta-Review and Some Suggestions for Future Research, Review of Environmental Economics and
Policy, 3(1):4-21
[46] Ayong Le Kama, 2001 A.D. Ayong Le Kama, Sustainable growth renewable resources, and pollution, Journal of Economic Dynamics and
Control, 25:1911–1918
[47] Endress, L., J. Roumasset, and T. Zhou. 2005. Sustainable Growth with Environmental Spillovers,"Journal of Economic Behavior and
Organization," 58(4):527-547,
[48] Stavins, R., A. Wagner, G. Wagner Interpreting Sustainability in Economic Terms: Dynamic Efficiency Plus Intergenerational Equity,
Economic Letters, 79:339-343
[49] Arrow KJ, P. Dasgupta, L. Goulder, G Daily, PR Ehrlich, GM Heal, S Levin, K-G Maler, S Schneider, DA Starrett, B Walker. 2004. Are we
consuming too much? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3):147–172
[50] Asheim, G. 1999. Economic analysis of sustainability. In: W.M. Lafferty and O. Langhalle, Editors, Towards Sustainable Development, St.
Martins Press, New York, p. 159
[51] Pezzey, J. 1989. Economic Analysis of Sustainable Growth and Sustainable Development, Environmental department Working Paper No.
15, World Bank.
[52] Pezzey, J. (1997). "Sustainability constraints versus 'optimality' versus intertemporal concern, and axioms versus data". Land Economics
(University of Wisconsin Press) 73 (4): 448–466. doi:10.2307/3147239. JSTOR 3147239.
[53] Barbier, E. 2007 Natural Resources and Economic Development, Cambridge University Press
Further reading
• Book Review (http://ejournal.nbii.org/archives/vol4iss1/book.rogers.html) on An Introduction to
Sustainable Development by Peter Rogers, Kazi Jalal, & John Boyd Sustainability: Science, Practice, & Policy
(http://ejournal.nbii.org), Published online June 18, 2008
• Beyerlin, Ulrich. Sustainable Development (http://www.mpepil.com/sample_article?id=/epil/entries/
law-9780199231690-e1609&recno=13&), Max Planck Encyclopedia of Public International Law
• Pezzey, J; M. Toman (January 2002). "The Economics of Sustainability:A Review of Journal Articles" (http://
www.rff.org/documents/RFF-DP-02-03.pdf). Resources for the Future DP 02-03: 1–36. Retrieved
2009-06-16.
• Mark Jarzombek, "Sustainability - Architecture: between Fuzzy Systems and Wicked Problems," Blueprints 21/1
(Winter 2003), pp. 6–9.
• Wallace, Bill (2005). Becoming part of the solution : the engineer’s guide to sustainable development.
Washington, DC: American Council of Engineering Companies. ISBN 0910090378.
Sustainable development 575
External links
• Globe Awards-the Leading Sustainability Awards (http://www.globeaward.org/)
• CII - ITC Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Development (http://www.sustainabledevelopment.in/)
• The Sustainable Development Research Program of the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (http://www.feem.it/
getpage.aspx?id=86&sez=Research&padre=18&sub=70)
• European Sustainable Development Network - ESDN (http://www.sd-network.eu/) - Sustainable development
policies and strategies in Europe
• World Bank (http://go.worldbank.org/7IS3KBWK20) website on sustainable development.
• Erb Institute for Global Sustainable Enterprise at the University of Michigan (http://www.erb.umich.edu)
• World Creative Youth Forum (WCYF) 2009 (http://www.worldcreativeyouthforum.net) - Upcoming
international youth forum on Education for Sustainable Development in May 2009 in the Philippines
• WWW-Virtual Library Sustainable development (http://www.ulb.ac.be/ceese/meta/sustvl.html) - Links to
sustainable development sources
• World Business Council for Sustainable Development (http://www.wbcsd.org/)
• The Center for Sustainable Global Enterprise (http://www.johnson.cornell.edu/sge/) at Cornell University
views environmental and social needs as business opportunities.
• U.K. Sustainable Development Commission (http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/)
• Appropedia - a Wiki focused on sustainable international development and poverty reduction
• Citizens Network for Sustainable Development (http://www.citnet.org/)
• Sustainable Development Law & Policy (http://www.wcl.american.edu/org/sustainabledevelopment)
• Stakeholder Forum for a Sustainable Future (http://www.stakeholderforum.org)
• Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Pakistan (http://www.sdpi.org)
• Consilience: The Journal of Sustainable Development, based at Columbia University (http://consiliencejournal.
readux.org/)
• Peter Ainsworth on degrowth and sustainable development (http://cle.ens-lyon.fr/82582439/0/
fiche___pagelibre/&RH=CDL_ANG000000) Published on La Clé des langues
ltg:Tvereiguo raisteiba
Weather control 576
Weather control
Weather control is the act of
manipulating or altering certain aspects
of the environment to produce
desirable changes in weather. Weather
control can have the goal of preventing
damaging weather, such as hurricanes
or tornadoes, from occurring; of
causing beneficial weather, such as
rainfall in an area experiencing
drought; or of provoking damaging
weather against an enemy or rival, as a
tactic of military or economic warfare.
Weather modification in warfare has
been banned by the United Nations.
A tornado in central Oklahoma. Weather control researchers aspire to eliminate or control
dangerous types of weather such as this.
History
In ancient India it is said that yajna or vedic rituals of chanting
manthras and offering were performed by rishis to bring sudden bursts
of rain fall in rain starved regions. Some American Indians like some
Europeans had rituals which they believed could induce rain. The
Finnish people, on the other hand, were believed by others to be able to
control weather. As a result, Vikings refused to take Finns on their
oceangoing raids. Remnants of this superstition lasted into the
twentieth century, with some ship crews being reluctant to accept
Finnish sailors. The early modern era saw people observe that during
battles the firing of cannons and other firearms often initiated
precipitation. Magical and religious practices to control the weather are
attested in a variety of cultures. In Greek mythology, Iphigenia was
offered as a human sacrifice to appease the wrath of the goddess
Artemis, who had becalmed the Achaean fleet at Aulis at the beginning
Witches concoct a brew to summon a hailstorm.
of the Trojan War. In Homer's Odyssey, Aeolus, keeper of the winds,
bestowed Odysseus and his crew with a gift of the four winds in a bag.
However, the sailors opened the bag while Odysseus slept, looking for booty, and as a result were blown off course
by the resulting gale.[1] In ancient Rome, the lapis manalis was a sacred stone kept outside the walls of Rome in a
temple of Mars. When Rome suffered from drought, the stone was dragged into the city.[2] The Berwick witches of
Scotland were found guilty of using black magic to summon storms to murder King James VI of Scotland by seeking
to sink the ship upon which he travelled.[3] Scandinavian witches allegedly claimed to sell the wind in bags or
magically confined into wooden staves; they sold the bags to seamen who could release them when becalmed.[4] In
various towns of Navarre, prayers petitioned Saint Peter to grant rain in time of drought. If the rain was not
forthcoming, the statue of St Peter was removed from the church and tossed into a river.[5]
Weather control 577
Perhaps the first example of practical weather control is the lightning rod. In the 1950s, computer scientist John von
Neumann, an early theorizer on weather control, surmized that if Earth were to enter another ice age, a preventative
solution would be to dump dirt (or spray soot from cropdusting planes) on the surface of the planet's glaciers. He
noted that this would significantly change their reflectivity (albedo), and thus increase the solar energy retained by
the planet. Such a strategy would require repeated applications, as storms would cover some portion of the soot with
new snow until their frequency and range abated. The theoretical efficacy of von Neumann's proposal remains to be
examined. Wilhelm Reich performed cloudbusting experiments in the 1950s to 1960s, the results of which are
controversial and not widely accepted by mainstream science. Dr Walter Russell wrote of weather control in Atomic
Suicide 1956. Jack Toyer in the 1970s built a rainmaker on Palmers Island near Grafton using a solar mirror,
electromagnetic static charge, and infra red frequencies of light to induce weather in regional areas within Australia.
His work was continued by his successor, Peter Stevens.
In January, 2011, several newspapers and magazines, including the UK's Sunday Times and Arabian Business,
reported that scientists backed by the government of Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, had created
over 50 artificial rainstorms between July and August of 2010 near Al Ain, a city which lies close to the country's
border with Oman and is the second-largest city in the Abu Dhabi Emirate. The artificial rainstorms were said to
have sometimes caused hail, gales and thunderstorms, baffling local residents.[6] The scientists reportedly used
ionizers to create the rainstorms, and although the results are disputed, the large number of times it is recorded to
have rained right after the ionizers were switched on during a usually dry season is encouraging to those who support
the experiment.[7]
Project Stormfury
Storm prevention
Project Stormfury was an attempt to weaken tropical
cyclones by flying aircraft into storms and seeding the
eyewall with silver iodide. The project was run by the
United States Government from 1962 to 1983. A
similar project using soot was run in 1958, with
inconclusive results.[9] Various methods have been
proposed to reduce the harmful effects of hurricanes.
Moshe Alamaro of the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology[10] proposed using barges with
upward-pointing jet engines to trigger smaller storms to
disrupt the progress of an incoming hurricane; critics
doubt the jets would be powerful enough to make any Hail cannons at an international congress on hail shooting held in
noticeable difference.[9] 1901
remove their moisture and force the storm to use more energy to move the heavier water drops, thus helping to
dissipate the storm. When the gel reaches the ocean surface, it is reportedly dissolved. The company has tested the
Weather control 579
substance on a thunderstorm, but there has not been any scientific consensus established as to its effectiveness.[15]
Hail cannons are used by some farmers in an attempt to ward off hail, but there is no reliable scientific evidence to
confirm their effectiveness. Another new anti-hurricane technology[16] is a method for the reduction of tropical
cyclones’ destructive force - pumping sea water into and diffusing it in the wind at the bottom of such tropical
cyclone in its eyewall.
Hurricane modification
Various ideas for manipulating hurricanes have been suggested. One TV show[17] explored various ideas such as:
• Using lasers to discharge lightning in storms which are likely to become hurricanes
• Pouring liquid nitrogen onto the sea to deprive the hurricane of heat energy.
• Creating soot to absorb sunlight and change air temperature and hence convection currents in the outer wall.
US Legislation
The Space Preservation Act was proposed "to preserve the cooperative, peaceful uses of space for the benefit of all
humankind by permanently prohibiting the basing of weapons in space by the United States, and to require the
President to take action to adopt and implement a world treaty banning space-based weapons."[21]
2005 U.S. Senate Bill 517 and U.S. House Bill 2995 U.S. Senate Bill 517[22] and U.S. House Bill 2995[23] were two
bills proposed in 2005 that would have expanded experimental weather modification, to establish a Weather
Modification Operations and Research Board, and implemented a national weather modification policy. Neither were
made into law. Former Texas State Senator John N. Leedom was the key lobbyist on behalf of the weather
modification bills.
2007 U.S. Senate Bill 1807 & U.S. House Bill 3445 Senate Bill 1807 and House Bill 3445, identical bills
introduced July 17, 2007, proposed to establish a Weather Mitigation Advisory and Research Board to fund weather
modification research [24] [25]
Weather control 580
Future aspirations
Climatologist Joe Chanik has simulated hurricane control based on selective heating and cooling (or prevention of
evaporation).[26] Futurist John Smart has discussed the potential for weather control via space-based solar power
networks. One proposal involves the gentle heating via microwave of portions of large hurricanes. Such chaotic
systems may be susceptible to "side steering" with a few degrees of increased temperature/pressure at critical points.
A sufficient network might keep the largest and most potentially damaging hurricanes from landfall, at the request of
host nations. Blizzards, monsoons, and other extreme weather are also potential candidates for space-based
amelioration. If large-scale weather control were to become feasible, potential implications may include:
• Unintended side effects, especially given the chaotic nature of weather development
• Damage to existing ecosystems
• Health risks to humans
• Equipment malfunction or accidents
• Non-democratic control or use as a weapon
• ELF hot spots causing slightly accelerated ionospheric depletion by solar wind [27]
For the 2008 Olympics, China had 30 airplanes, 4,000 rocket launchers, and 7,000 anti-aircraft guns to stop rain.
Each system would shoot various chemicals into any threatening clouds to shrink rain drops before they reach the
stadium.[28]
Conspiracy theories
Conspiracy theorists question the possibility of using weather
control as a weapon (e.g. via HAARP and/or chemtrails), At
a counterterrorism conference in 1997, United States
Secretary of Defense William Cohen referred to the writings
of futurist Alvin Toffler, specifically regarding concerns
about "environmental terrorism" and intentionally caused
natural disasters.[29]
References
[1] Homer, The Odyssey, book 10.
[2] Sir James Frazer, The Golden Bough, ch. 5 (abridged edition), "The A Project HAARP antenna
Magical Control of Rain"
[3] Christopher Smout, A History of the Scottish People 1560-1830, pp.
184-192
[4] Adam of Bremen and Ole Worm are quoted as maintaining this in
Grillot de Givry's Witchcraft, Magic and Alchemy (Frederick
Publications, 1954).
[5] Frazer, supra.
[6] Leigh, Karen. (http:/ / www. arabianbusiness. com/
abu-dhabi-backed-scientists-create-fake-rainstorms-in-11m-project-371038.
html), "Arabian Business", January 3, 2011. Retrieved 2011-01-8.
[7] (http:/ / www. dailymail. co. uk/ sciencetech/ article-1343470/
Have-scientists-discovered-create-downpours-desert. html), "Daily
Mail", January 3, 2011. Retrieved 2011-01-8.
[8] http:/ / www. energy. ca. gov/ 2007publications/ CEC-500-2007-008/
CEC-500-2007-008. PDF
[9] http:/ / environment. newscientist. com/ article/ dn7995. html - Alamaro Project Stormfury crew
proposal and energy critique
[10] Moshe Alamaro's brief bio (http:/ / alamaro. home. comcast. net/ Alamaro-bio. htm)
[11] http:/ / www. newscientist. com/ article. ns?id=dn7726 - Chorin proposal
Weather control 581
[12] Kerry Emanuel's Homepage (http:/ / wind. mit. edu/ ~emanuel/ home. html)
[13] Could humans tackle hurricanes? - earth - 14 September 2005 - New Scientist Environment (http:/ / environment. newscientist. com/ article/
dn7995. html)
[14] Oil on troubled waters may stop hurricanes - earth - 25 July 2005 - New Scientist (http:/ / www. newscientist. com/ article. ns?id=dn7726)
[15] Anti-hurricane invention worth pursuing. (http:/ / www. nashuatelegraph. com/ apps/ pbcs. dll/ article?AID=/ 20051022/ OPINION04/
110220166/ -1/ news) Murdock, Deroy. Scripps Howard News Service. 22 Oct 2005.
[16] http:/ / www. wipo. int/ pctdb/ en/ wo. jsp?IA=WO2006085830& DISPLAY=STATUS
[17] "How to stop a hurricane" (http:/ / www. cbc. ca/ doczone/ hurricane. html). CBC. . Retrieved 2009-05-06.
[18] Agreement Relating to the Exchange of Information on Weather Modification Activities (http:/ / untreaty. un. org/ unts/ 1_60000/ 27/ 20/
00052955. pdf)
[19] Environmental Modification Convention (http:/ / www. fas. org/ nuke/ control/ enmod/ text/ environ2. htm)
[20] "Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques" (http:/ / web. archive. org/
web/ 20070914081350/ http:/ / www. state. gov/ t/ ac/ trt/ 4783. htm). United States Department of State. Archived from the original (http:/ /
www. state. gov/ t/ ac/ trt/ 4783. htm) on 2007-09-14. . Retrieved 2007-09-28.
[21] http:/ / thomas. loc. gov/ cgi-bin/ query/ zc107:H. R. 2977. IH
[22] S. 517 [109th]: Weather Modification Research and Development Policy Authorization Act of 2005, proposed by [[U.S. Senator (http:/ /
www. govtrack. us/ congress/ bill. xpd?bill=s109-517)] Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas and then U.S. Representative (later Senator) Mark
Udall of Colorado (GovTrack.us)]
[23] H.R. 2995 [109th]: Weather Modification Research and Technology Transfer Authorization Act of 2005 (GovTrack.us) (http:/ / www.
govtrack. us/ congress/ bill. xpd?bill=h109-2995)
[24] http:/ / tlp. law. pitt. edu/ SP_DiLorenzo_Weather%20Modification. htm
[25] http:/ / www. govtrack. us/ congress/ bill. xpd?bill=s110-1807
[26] Hoffman, R, "Controlling Hurricanes," Scientific American, Oct 2004 (http:/ / www. sciam. com/ article.
cfm?articleID=000593AE-704B-1151-B57F83414B7F0000).
[27] Kevin J. Zahnle, "Our Planet's Leaky Atmosphere," Scientific American, May 2009 (http:/ / www. scientificamerican. com/ article.
cfm?id=how-planets-lose-their-atmospheres).
[28] Demick, Barbara, "China plans to halt rain for Olympics," Los Angeles Times, January 2008 (http:/ / www. latimes. com/ news/ nationworld/
world/ la-fg-rain31jan31,0,39372. story).
[29] COHEN ADDRESS 4/28 AT CONFERENCE ON TERRORISM Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and U.S. Strategy Sam Nunn
Policy Forum April 28, 1997 University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia (http:/ / www. fas. org/ news/ usa/ 1997/ 04/ bmd970429d. htm)
External links
General information
• Weather Modification Association (http://www.weathermodification.org/related_sites.htm) Perhaps the
largest commercial overhead organization for weather modification research and application.
• Golden Dome construction (http://Goldendome.org/construction) Hundreds of advanced practitioners of
Transcendental Meditation put their attention on favorable weather conditions during construction of the Golden
Dome during the winter of 1980.
• The Testimony of Dr. Tom DeFelice (http://commerce.senate.gov/pdf/defelice.pdf) (Past President, Weather
Modification Association) in support of Weather Modification Operations and Research Board
• 109th Congress S. 517: Weather Modification Research and Technology Transfer Authorization Act of 2005
(http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s109-517)
• Article (http://data.opi.state.mt.us/bills/2005/billhtml/HB0399.htm) Montana restricts spraying to a
window of months and requires materials and employee lists
• US Navy (http://wwwppd.nrl.navy.mil/whatsnew/haarp) Some work is done by The United States Navy using
ELF: Simulations of ELF radiation generated by heating the high-latitude D- region. (This work is supported by
the Office of Naval Research and, in part, by a grant of HPC time from the DoD High Performance Computing
Center at the Army Research Laboratory, Aberdeen Proving Ground)
• HARRP (http://wwwppd.nrl.navy.mil/whatsnew/haarp/haarpabsez.gif)
• " The Weather Modification Operations and Research Board (passed Oct.2005) - in corporate cooperation with
BAE Systems (HAARP apparatus & facility owner) and Raytheon Corporation (HAARP patent owner) (http://
commerce.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressReleases.Detail&PressRelease_Id=248556)
Weather control 582
• " NOAA’S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AWARDS $300 MILLION AWIPS CONTRACT TO
RAYTHEON (http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/releases2005/aug05/noaa05-098.html)"
• " Raytheon Aircraft Company (Owner of HAARP patents, and, NOAA-funded aerosol weather
modification/AESA radar weather weapons) (http://www.raytheonaircraft.com/government/multi_jets.
shtml#main)"
• " BAE Systems (program and apparatus-owner of the HAARP facility, Railgun technology, electromagnetic
armor, and, a sub-corporation partner with Raytheon via British Aerospace Corporation (http://www.na.
baesystems.com/releasesDetail.cfm?a=477)
• " General Dynamics Robotics (owned by Raytheon Corp) - military contractor/manufacturer of Unmanned
Autonomous Vehicles (UAV) aircraft designed for "all-weather," computer-controlled weapons defense progams
(http://www.gdrs.com/news/)
• " HAARP Completed! - news compilation (http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2006/05/06/18214461.php)
• " President Bush's National Response Plan (http://www.dhs.gov/xprepresp/committees/editorial_0566.shtm)"
• " Boeing, Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, and Raytheon to create B2B exchange for the aerospace and defense
industry, powered by Microsoft (http://www.lockheedmartin.com/wms/findPage.do?dsp=fec&ci=12498&
rsbci=0&fti=112&ti=0&sc=400)"
• Weathermodification.org (http://www.weathermodification.org)
• North American Interstate Weather Modification Council (http://www.naiwmc.org)
• Iceflares.com (http://www.iceflares.com)
• The Gateway Arch as a weather control device (http://www.failedsuccess.com/index.php?/weblog/more/
arch_weather_story)
• William Cohen Address of 4/28/1997 (http://www.fas.org/news/usa/1997/04/bmd970429d.htm) where he
mentioned the possibility of "eco-terrorism" including weather control.
• Scientific American Magazine (October 2004 Issue) Controlling Hurricanes (http://www.sciam.com/article.
cfm?chanID=sa006&articleID=000593AE-704B-1151-B57F83414B7F0000)
• Eastlund Scientific Enterprises (http://www.eastlundscience.com/WEATHER.html) The established
corporation of Bernard Eastlund, the inventor of the fusion torch, patents used for the HAARP, and the
weather-modifying "Thunderstorm Solar-Powered Satellite" system.
• Whitehouse.gov (http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2007/05/20070509-12.html)
The "National Security and Homeland Security Presidential Directive" of 2007, in which "The President shall
lead the activities of the Federal Government for ensuring constitutional government" (powers of legislative and
judiciary branches aside) during any sort of catastrophic emergency in the USA.
• Agreement between Canada and the United States of America relating to the exchange of information on weather
modification activities (http://www.lexum.umontreal.ca/ca_us/en/cts.1975.11.en.html), Cando-American
Treaties
• That's Impossible: Weather Warfare (http://www.history.com/shows.do?episodeId=464914&action=detail),
History Channel
Weather control 583
Patents
Original
• Process for weather control, H. M. Brandau, U.S. Patent 2756097 (http://www.google.com/
patents?vid=2756097)
• Weather control by artificial means, Heinz W. Kasemir, U.S. Patent 3284005 (http://www.google.com/
patents?vid=3284005)
• Cloud formation and subsequent moisture precipitation, U.S. Patent 3409220 (http://www.google.com/
patents?vid=3409220)
• System and method for irradiation of planet surface areas, Aurthur G. Buckingham, U.S. Patent 3564253 (http://
www.google.com/patents?vid=3564253)
• Weather modification method, Knollenberg, U.S. Patent 3613992 (http://www.google.com/
patents?vid=3613992)
• Combustible compositions for generating aerosols, particularly suitable for cloud modification and weather
control and aerosolization process, Consiglio Nazionale delle Richerche, U.S. Patent 3630950 (http://www.
google.com/patents?vid=3630950)
• Method and apparatus for altering a region in the Earth's atmosphere, ionosphere, and/or magnetosphere, J.
Eastlund, U.S. Patent 4686605 (http://www.google.com/patents?vid=4686605)
• Method and composition for precipitation of atmospheric water, Slavko Mentus, U.S. Patent 5360162 (http://
www.google.com/patents?vid=5360162)
• Use of artificial satellites in earth orbits adaptively to modify the effect that solar radiation would otherwise have
on earth's weather, Franklin Y. K. Chen, U.S. Patent 5762298 (http://www.google.com/patents?vid=5762298)
• Weather modification by artificial satellites, Franklin Y. K. Chen, U.S. Patent 5984239 (http://www.google.
com/patents?vid=5984239)
• Method of and a device for the reduction of tropical cyclones destructive force, Jozef Solc, U.S. Patent 7,798,419
(http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&p=1&u=/netahtml/PTO/
search-bool.html&r=1&f=G&l=50&co1=AND&d=PTXT&s1=Solc&s2=hurricane&OS=Solc+AND+
hurricane&RS=Solc+AND+hurricane)
Reissue
• Combustible compositions for generating aerosols, particularly suitable for cloud modification and weather
control and aerosolization process, Consiglio Nazionale delle Richerche, U.S. Patent RE29142 (http://www.
google.com/patents?vid=RE29142)
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change 584
The conference took place under the United Kingdom's presidency of the G8, with the participation of around 200
'internationally renowned' scientists from 30 countries. It was chaired by Dennis Tirpak and hosted by the Hadley
Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Exeter, from 1 February to 3 February.[1]
Objectives
The conference was called to bring together the latest
research into what would be necessary to achieve the
objective of the 1992 United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change:
to achieve, in accordance with the relevant
provisions of the Convention, stabilization of
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere
at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate
system.
Conclusions
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change 585
Among the conclusions reached, the most significant was a new assessment of the link between the concentration of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the increase in global temperature levels. Some researchers have argued that
the most serious consequences of global warming might be avoided if global average temperatures rose by no more
than 2 °C (3.6 °F) above pre-industrial levels (1.4 °C above present levels). It had generally been assumed that this
would occur if greenhouse gas concentrations rose above 550 ppm carbon dioxide equivalent by volume. This
concentration was, for example, informing government in certain countries, including the European Union.[3] Other
research suggests, however, that 2 °C warming is unlikely to cause major economic problems.[4]
The conference concluded that, at the level of 550 ppm, it was likely that 2 °C would be exceeded, according to the
projections of more recent climate models. Stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm would only result
in a 50% likelihood of limiting global warming to 2 °C, and that it would be necessary to achieve stabilisation below
400 ppm to give a relatively high certainty of not exceeding 2 °C.[5]
The conference also claimed that, if action to reduce emissions is delayed by 20 years, rates of emission reduction
may need to be 3 to 7 times greater to meet the same temperature target.[5]
Reaction
As a result of changing opinion on the 'safe' atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, to which this conference
contributed, the UK Government changed the target in the Climate Change Act from 60% to 80% by 2050.[6]
References
[1] "Climate Stabilisation Conference - Exeter 2005" (http:/ / www. gnn. gov. uk/ content/ detail. asp?NewsAreaID=2& ReleaseID=134475).
Government News Network. 4 November 2004. . Retrieved 15 March 2007.
[2] "Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change - Background" (http:/ / www. stabilisation2005. com/ background. html). Met Office. 2005. .
Retrieved 16 March 2007.
[3] "Community Strategy on Climate Change - Council Conclusions" (http:/ / ue. eu. int/ ueDocs/ cms_Data/ docs/ pressData/ en/ envir/
011a0006. htm). Council of the European Union. 22 June 1996?. . Retrieved 15 March 2007.
[4] [[Richard Tol|R.S.J. Tol (http:/ / www. sciencedirect. com/ science?_ob=ArticleURL& _udi=B6V2W-4J32HDR-4& _user=1005040&
_coverDate=01/ 31/ 2007& _alid=675049097& _rdoc=2& _fmt=full& _orig=search& _cdi=5713& _sort=d& _docanchor=& view=c&
_ct=10& _acct=C000047720& _version=1& _urlVersion=0& _userid=1005040& md5=e1d1dfbfffd92e1e7374ae282df2eebf)] (2007), Energy
Policy, 35 (1), 424-434]
[5] "International Symposium on the Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations - Report of the International Scientific Steering Committee"
(http:/ / www. stabilisation2005. com/ outcomes. html). Met Office. 10 May 2005. . Retrieved 15 March 2007.
[6] "UK leads world with commitment to cut emissions by 80% by 2050" (http:/ / nds. coi. gov. uk/ environment/ fullDetail.
asp?ReleaseID=381477& NewsAreaID=2& NavigatedFromDepartment=False). Department of Energy and Climate Change. 16 October 2008.
. Retrieved 28 October 2008.
Further reading
• Related book: Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Editors: Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Wolfgang Cramer,
Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Tom Wigley, and Gary Yohe, Cambridge University Press, February 2006, ISBN
9780521864718 DOI: 10.2277/0521864712.
• PDF version (http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/research/dangerous-cc/pdf/
avoid-dangercc.pdf)
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change 586
External links
• Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change - official conference website (http://www.stabilisation2005.com/)
• Tyndall Centre - A strategic assessment of scientific and behavioural perspectives on 'dangerous' climate change
(http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/theme3/project_overviews/t3_32.shtml)
• RSPB - Keeping below 2 degrees: Avoiding dangerous climate change (http://www.rspb.org.uk/Images/
below2degrees_tcm9-132866.pdf)
• WWF-UK - 2°C Is Too Much! Evidence and Implications of Dangerous Climate Change in the Arctic (http://
www.wwf.org.uk/news/n_0000001451.asp)
• Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency - Meeting the European Union 2°C climate target: global and
regional emission implications (http://www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2005/
Meeting_the_EU_2_degrees_C_climate_target__global_and_regional_emission_implications.html)
• Dr. James Hansen, Climate Scientist's web page (http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/)
News
• April 19, 2007, Reuters: World needs to axe greenhouse gases by 80% by 2050 (http://in.today.reuters.com/
news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&
storyID=2007-04-19T182132Z_01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_India-294813-1.xml&archived=False)
• February 1, 2006, Euractive: UK chief scientific adviser: Keeping CO2 concentration below 450ppm is
'unfeasible' (http://www.euractiv.com/en/sustainability/eu-climate-change-target-unfeasible/article-152154)
• January 30, 2006, BBC: Stark warning over climate change (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4660938.
stm)
• January 30, 2006, BBC: Climate report: the main points (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4661830.stm)
• January 29, 2006, Washington Post: Debate on Climate Shifts to Issue of Irreparable Change (http://www.
washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/28/AR2006012801021.html)
• January 1, 2006, Times online: World has only 20 years to stop climate disaster (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/
tol/news/uk/article723327.ece)
• February 4, 2005, Environment News Service: Catastrophic Climate Change Risk Accelerating, Scientists Warn
(http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/feb2005/2005-02-04-05.asp)
• February 3, 2005, Guardian Unlimited: Climate conference hears degree of danger (http://www.guardian.co.
uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1404453,00.html)
Index of climate change articles 587
0-9
100,000-year problem - 1500-Year climate cycle - 4 Degrees and Beyond International Climate Conference
A
Abrupt climate change - The Age of Stupid - Albedo - An Inconvenient Truth - An Inconvenient Book - Antarctica
cooling controversy - Antarctic Cold Reversal - Antarctic oscillation - Arctic Climate Impact Assessment - Arctic
geoengineering - Arctic shrinkage - Arctic oscillation - Antarctica cooling controversy - Atlantic oscillation - Arctic
Climate Impact Assessment - Arctic methane release - Arctic shrinkage - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation -
Atmospheric circulation - Atmospheric sciences - Atmospheric window - Attribution of recent climate change -
Aviation and climate change - Aviation and the environment - Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change
B
Bali Communiqué - Bali roadmap - Biochar - Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage - Bio-geoengineering -
Black carbon - Blytt-Sernander - Broad Spectrum Revolution - Business action on climate change
C
Callendar effect - Cap and Share - Carbon capture and storage - Carbon cycle - Carbon negative - Carbon neutral -
Carbon project - Carbon sequestration - Carbon offset - Carbon sink - Carbon tax - Catastrophic climate change -
Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change - Clathrate gun hypothesis - Clean coal technology -
Clean Energy Trends - Climate - Climate change - Climate change acronyms - Climate change act - Climate change
and agriculture - Climate change denial - Climate change in Japan - Climate change in Maldives - Climate change in
popular culture - Climate change mitigation - Climate change mitigation scenarios - Climate commitment - Climate
crunch - Climate cycle - Climate ethics - Climate governance- Climate Investment Funds - Climate model - Climate
refugee - Climate risk management - Climate sensitivity - Climate surprise - Climate variability - Climatic Research
Unit email controversy - Cloud feedback - Cloud reflectivity enhancement - Coal phase out - Cool roof - Cool
tropics paradox - Coral bleaching
D
Dendroclimatology - The Day After Tomorrow - Divergence problem
E
Eco-efficiency - Early anthropocene - Earth's atmosphere - Earth's energy budget - EarthLab - Earth Hour -
Earthshine - East Antarctic Ice Sheet - Ecotax - Ecological Forecasting - Effects of climate change on marine
mammals - Effect of climate change on plant biodiversity - Effects of global warming - Effects of global warming on
Australia - Effects of global warming on India - Efficient energy use - El Niño (ENSO) - Emission Reduction Unit -
Emission inventory - Emission standards - Emissions trading - Energie-Cités - Energy Autonomy - Energy
conservation - Energy forestry - Enteric fermentation - Environmental crime - Environmental impact of aviation -
Environmental skepticism - European Climate Forum
Index of climate change articles 588
F
Fossil fuel - Fossil fuel phase out - Fossil fuel power plant - Freon - food security
G
G8+5 - Geoengineering - GFDL CM2.X - Global Change Master Directory - Global climate model - Global cooling
- Global climate model (General Circulation Model) - Global dimming - Global warming - Global warming
controversy - Global warming period - Global warming potential - Greenhouse and Icehouse Earth - Greenhouse
debt - Greenhouse effect - Greenhouse gas - Greenhouse gas accounting - Greenhouse gas inventory - Gulf Stream
H
History of climate change science - Holocene climatic optimum - Heiligendamm Process - Hell and High Water
(book) - Hockey stick controversy - Holocene - Holocene Climatic Optimum - Human impact of climate change -
Hydrological geoengineering
I
Ice age - Ice core - Ice sheet dynamics - Individual and political action on climate change - Insolation - Instrumental
temperature record - Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - International
Conference on Climate Change - IPCC list of greenhouse gases
K
Keeling Curve - Kyoto Protocol
L
List of geoengineering topics - List of proposed geoengineering projects - List of scientists opposing the mainstream
scientific assessment of global warming - Little Ice Age - Long-term effects of global warming - Low-carbon
emission -
M
Magnetosphere - Maunder Minimum - Mauna Loa - Medieval Warm Period - Meridional overturning circulation -
Meteorology - Methane - Milankovitch cycles
Index of climate change articles 589
N
Nitrous oxide (N2O) - North Atlantic Deep Water - North Atlantic oscillation - Northwest Passage
O
Ocean acidification - Ocean anoxia - Older Dryas - Oldest Dryas - Overpopulation - Ozone depletion
P
Pacific decadal oscillation - Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum - Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison
Project - Paleothermometer - Parameterization - Planetary engineering - Peak oil - Phenology - Polar amplification -
Proxy
Q
Quaternary glaciation - Quasi-biennial oscillation
R
Radiative forcing - Regional effects of global warming - Renewable energy - Renewable energy commercialization -
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 - Runaway climate change
S
Sahara pump theory - Satellite temperature measurements - Scientific opinion on climate change - Scientific
skepticism - Sea level rise - Slash and burn - Snowball Earth - Solar Radiation Management - Solar shade - Solar
variation - Space sunshade - Stratospheric sulfur aerosols - Stratospheric sulfur aerosols (geoengineering) - Sunspot
T
Table of Historic and Prehistoric Climate Indicators - Temperature record of the past 1000 years - Temperature
record since 1880 - Thermohaline circulation - Timeline of glaciation - TEX-86 - Thermocline - The Deniers - The
Great Global Warming Swindle - The Republican War on Science - Timeline of environmental history - Tipping
point (climatology)
U
Urban heat island - UN climate change conference 2009
W
Waste heat - Water World - West Antarctic Ice Sheet - World climate research programme - World Climate Report
External links
• IPCC [1] - glossary
References
[1] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 518. htm
Article Sources and Contributors 590
LordsReform, Lostinthedark, LotR, Lotje, Lotu, LoudMouth, Louis9149432737, LucAleria, Lucian Sunday, Lucid-dream, Lucidsystems, Lucky Mitch, Luckyherb, Ludwigs2, Luk, Lukebutler,
Lumidek, Lumos3, Luna Santin, Lutherjw, MBisanz, MC10, MECU, MER-C, MH, MITalum, MJCdetroit, MK8, MONGO, MPF, Mac, Macai, Macauleyd4, Mackabean, Macker2194,
Maclean25, MadMzizike232, Magister Mathematicae, Magiwand, Magnetic Rag, Magnum2037, Mailman9, Mailseth, Maistry, Majyr, Malahci, Malatesta, Malcolm, Malcolm Farmer,
MalcolmMcDonald, Malo, Mamalujo, Manbearpigs, Manchurian candidate, Mann jess, Manticore55, Manujchandra, Mao59, MarSch, Marcika, Marcintomasz, Marcmojo01, Marco Krohn,
Margareta, Markisgreen, Marknutley, Marksda, Marskell, Martin Hogbin, MartinHarper, Martinp23, Martinphi, Maryrebecca, Massimo Macconi, MastCell, Mastaxpeng, Masterjamie,
Mastermonil, Masterofcheese, Mathchem271828, Mathijs Romans, Mathwizard1232, Matrix7777, Matt Yeager, MatthewJS, Mattisse, Mattj14, Mattjs, Mav, MayFlowerNorth, Mazca, Maziotis,
Mboverload, Mburba, McSly, Mcorazao, Mdd, Me called tree, Meade13, Mean Free Path, Medallion of Phat, Meelar, Meeples, Megaman0018, Megapixie, Mel Etitis, Mellum, Membre,
Memotype, Menkaur, Mentalhead, Menwith, Mepolypse, Mercury, MercyBreeze, Merlinme, Mermaid from the Baltic Sea, Merzbow, Mgiganteus1, Mglg, Mgs17, Mhaeberli, Mhonan, Michael
A. White, Michael C Price, Michael Hardy, Michael Johnson, Michael Shields, Michael Snow, Michael cogswell, MichaelTinkler, Michaelas10, Michaelbusch, Michaelorgan, Michapma,
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Instrumental temperature record Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426857677 Contributors: ADNghiem501, Adam McMaster, Adambro, Alexh19740110, Allstarecho,
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Article Sources and Contributors 592
Temperature record of the past 1000 years Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=422122264 Contributors: 2over0, Alan Liefting, Alansohn, Anastrophe, Awickert, Bender235,
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151 anonymous edits
Historical climatology Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=413717897 Contributors: Bendzh, Climatica, Count Iblis, Davidstrauss, Dhaluza, Everlong, FritsKoek, Gabriel
Kielland, Jocce, KOosthoek, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Malcolma, Peterlewis, RDBrown, Ratarsed, Rjwilmsi, Sooner80, Wavelength, William Avery, William M. Connolley, 7 anonymous edits
Paleoclimatology Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425482466 Contributors: 13alexander, 23Simon, ABCD, Adamsan, AlexD, Allen4names, Ancheta Wis, Armeria, Aude,
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Biofuel Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426166532 Contributors: -Majestic-, 168..., 28bytes, A. B., A12n, A3camero, A4MES1, Aarnjb, Acalamari, Acschwim, Adrian0808,
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Bond event Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=424434514 Contributors: Bender235, Chase me ladies, I'm the Cavalry, Cincydude55, Eassin, Gabriel Kielland, GregorB, HiEv,
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Atlantic multidecadal oscillation Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=420909441 Contributors: Atmoz, Awickert, Beland, Bender235, Bobrayner, Chris is me, Chris the speller,
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Pacific decadal oscillation Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=427068825 Contributors: Anticipation of a New Lover's Arrival, The, Atmoz, Bender235, Copeland.James.H,
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Solar variation Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425688879 Contributors: Acdacey, Africangenesis, Alienus, Andonic, Atmoz, Awickert, Beaber, Beland, Bender235,
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Abrupt climate change Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426193993 Contributors: Andrewjlockley, Arthur Rubin, AstroHurricane001, Atmoz, Awickert, Bender235,
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Climate change and agriculture Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=423650781 Contributors: Abanima, ActivExpression, Alan Liefting, Alansohn, Aliwalla, Anirinel, Anthere,
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Climate change and ecosystems Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=422577276 Contributors: Deditos, Enescot, KimDabelsteinPetersen, RHaworth, Rich Farmbrough,
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Drought Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426203312 Contributors: 130.94.122.xxx, 86mecool, A8UDI, Acebrock, ActivExpression, Addshore, AdjustShift, Adrian, Aeioup,
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Article Sources and Contributors 599
Economics of global warming Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=423032040 Contributors: 21655, Andrew Hoerner, Art LaPella, Arthur Rubin, Atmoz, Auntof6, BeachedOne,
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Effects of climate change on humans Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=427165815 Contributors: A8UDI, AJMcMichael, Arthur Rubin, Atmoz, Biscuittin, Ckatz,
Dawnseeker2000, JLeland123, Logan, Neelix, RDBrown, SMasters, Tide rolls, Vettrock, Wavelength, 34 anonymous edits
Effects of climate change on marine mammals Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425330879 Contributors: Arthur Rubin, AstroHurricane001, Atmoz, CurtisSwain, Diannaa,
Imperial Monarch, John of Reading, Mausy5043, Pcirrus, Slightsmile, Smnilsson, Strenshon, Vasquezvero, 13 anonymous edits
Fisheries and climate change Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425481514 Contributors: Alan Liefting, Anirinel, CambridgeBayWeather, Epipelagic, Kieran Kelleher,
LilHelpa, Malleus Fatuorum, RDBrown, Rjwilmsi, ThatPeskyCommoner, 1 anonymous edits
Retreat of glaciers since 1850 Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=427130599 Contributors: Abdallahdjabi, Aearluin, Againme, Alan Liefting, Algkalv, Amaurea, Amir
Tashekian, Anatoly IVANOV, Andrew boardy 97, Andrwsc, Anna Frodesiak, Appraiser, Arthur Rubin, Atmoz, Aude, Avenue, AxelBoldt, BLUE, Begoon, Benhocking, Bettymnz4,
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Extinction risk from global warming Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426132029 Contributors: Andrewjlockley, Arthur Rubin, AstroHurricane001, Atmoz, Bob98133,
Bre8r, Caltas, Cap'nTrade, Ckatz, Diannaa, Emeraude, EncMstr, Eric Kvaalen, Flavius Butkis, GVnayR, Gilliam, I End My Quest, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Merovingian, Peterson24, Polargeo,
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M. Connolley, 28 anonymous edits
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Ocean acidification Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=427146197 Contributors: 1exec1, 2marcus, A little mollusk, AlexD, Ambroseisok, Apoolew2o, Argc, Arjuna909, Arthur
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Effect of climate change on plant biodiversity Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426193819 Contributors: Alan Liefting, Arthur Rubin, AstroHurricane001, Ckatz, D6,
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Runaway climate change Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=423659664 Contributors: Abc-mn-xyz, Ancient Anomaly, Andrewjlockley, Arthur Rubin, AstroHurricane001,
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Season creep Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=418499080 Contributors: AManWithNoPlan, Atmoz, Biruitorul, CIS, Dhaluza, Gabriel Kielland, Ibbn, Jwalte04, Ms2ger,
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Article Sources and Contributors 603
Geoengineering Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=427168612 Contributors: 5 albert square, Alan Liefting, Alikaalex, Altenmann, Andrewjlockley, Arthur Rubin, Atama,
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Climate change mitigation scenarios Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=427170124 Contributors: Alan Liefting, Arthur Rubin, Atmoz, Beagel, GirasoleDE, Gobonobo, Istrill,
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Rainwater tank Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=424046788 Contributors: Alan Liefting, Aly89, Anlace, Apatomerus, Asitsahu, Bogey97, BrianAsh, Capricorn42,
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Sustainable development Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=426383351 Contributors: 194.196.100.xxx, 411.tony, @pple, ABF, Academic Challenger, Acoogan, Addshore,
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Article Sources and Contributors 604
Weather control Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=420992242 Contributors: ABSZero, Academic Challenger, Acather96, Airodyssey, Alansohn, Alexf, Alexjohnc3,
Allstar86, Altzinn, Anagram, Anarchia, Andrewjlockley, Anna Frodesiak, Arslan-San, ArtistScientist, Atled, Beeblebrox, Beegee7730, Beland, Benabik, Billy Hathorn, Binksternet, Bullzeye,
CMBJ, CaliforniaAliBaba, Charles Matthews, Chendy, Chovin, Chris the speller, ChrisMP1, Chriscombs, Cimon Avaro, Claritas, Complete Truth, CovenantD, Cxk929, Cybercobra, DRGrim,
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Eustachius, Family Guy Guy, Fastilysock, Fratrep, Fredler Brave, Furrybeagle, Gabbe, Gloriamarie, Gogo Dodo, GoingBatty, Grafen, Gun Powder Ma, H Debussy-Jones, HamburgerRadio,
Haoie, Heavenearth, IKato, Ihcoyc, Ingventor, InvaderJim42, Iridescent, Ithatch, Ixfd64, J 1982, J.delanoy, JForget, JHFTC, JJB, JackpotDen, Jaranda, Jay Bohn, Jc3s5h, Jeresig, Jj137, Jncraton,
John Broughton, JohnSmart, Jorfer, Joseph Solis in Australia, Jozef.solc, Jrockley, Juliancolton, Jwsmith708, KNewman, Kaihsu, Kairologic, Kazvorpal, Kerowyn, Kevrisrules, La goutte de
pluie, Leeroy4000, LilHelpa, LookNorth, Luatha, Magioladitis, Majorly, Mardus, Mariegriffiths, Marquitose, Matthew Yeager, Mboverload, McGeddon, Mdwyer, Miami33139, Michael3456,
MinisterForBadTimes, Morhange2, NES Wii, Nat Krause, Natalie Erin, Noclevername, Nohomers48, Olegwiki, Onebravemonkey, Owen, Paulbrock, Pcirrus2, Pearle, Pedant, Pierre cb,
Primalchaos, Purplefeltangel, RCX, Rd232, Reconsider the static, Recury, Reddi, ResearchRave, Rjwilmsi, Robina Fox, Rojasyesid, Roscogre, RoyBoy, Runningonbrains, RxS, Ryan4314, S
Roper, SEWilco, Sceptre, Scorpionman, Sesshomaru, Shaddack, Shawnp2008, Sherool, Shoeofdeath, Sintaku, Sophysduckling, Sud Ram, Supertask, T h williams, T-borg, The Thing That Should
Not Be, TheCorpulent1, Theda, Thorenn, Thumperward, Timneu22, TruthHappens, Tyrhinis, UltimatePyro, UtherSRG, Vicki Rosenzweig, Victorgrigas, Viriditas, W3bbo, WikipediaClown,
WindRunner, Wingover, Worldwidewaffle, Yuriybrisk, Zagalejo, Zhuuu, Zoicon5, 311 anonymous edits
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=425459208 Contributors: Alan Liefting, Arthur Rubin, Autopilot, Bikeable, Brusegadi, Ckatz,
Climateneutral, Coastwise, Commander98, Dburdenbates, Energybeing, Envirocorrector, Escientist, Fillinchen, Gabbe, Gralo, Hu12, Id447, Int09jda, Johnfos, Led zec, Mak Thorpe, N p holmes,
Nallan, Nanasusie, Ohnoitsjamie, Orangehues, Paul Spanovich, Prester John, Raul654, Rich Farmbrough, Rtol, Sgsg, Shawine, Stephan Schulz, Strenshon, Tang23, TenOfAllTrades, The Thing
That Should Not Be, Thunderbird2, UBeR, USRegPatOff, Vsmith, Wavelength, Will Beback, William M. Connolley, Woer$, Yvolution, Zenwhat, 25 anonymous edits
Index of climate change articles Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=424122335 Contributors: Alan Liefting, Andrewjlockley, Arthur Rubin, Atama, Barrylb, ChyranandChloe,
Coastwise, CurtisSwain, EastTN, Energybeing, Estellnb, Flipper24, Gobonobo, Hmains, Hu, Id447, Jaymax, Jorfer, Kgrr, Lemchesvej, Lennoxman2, Mercurywoodrose, Michael H 34,
Mrfebruary, Nopetro, NuclearWarfare, Oren0, Prolog, Reefdiver, SBuzzelli, The Transhumanist, Theo Pardilla, Thepisky, Tillman, Tom4216697, Tomasdemul, Tony Sidaway, Trilobitealive,
UBeR, Veteran0101, Vettrock, Vgy7ujm, Voxii, Vsmith, Wavelength, William M. Connolley, 14 anonymous edits
Image Sources, Licenses and Contributors 605
File:1997 El Nino TOPEX.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:1997_El_Nino_TOPEX.jpg License: Public Domain Contributors: Maddox1, Mircea, Telim tor
File:MJO 5-day running mean through 1 Oct 2006.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:MJO_5-day_running_mean_through_1_Oct_2006.png License: Public Domain
Contributors: NOAA
File:Enso normal.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Enso_normal.png License: Public Domain Contributors: Bender235, Tano4595, Wikier
File:Enso elnino.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Enso_elnino.png License: Public Domain Contributors: Bender235, Shizhao, Tano4595, Wikier
File:Enso lanina.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Enso_lanina.png License: Public Domain Contributors: Bender235, Nils Simon, Tano4595, Wikier
File:El Nino regional impacts.gif Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:El_Nino_regional_impacts.gif License: Public Domain Contributors: NOAA
File:Sea Surface Temperature - November 2007.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Sea_Surface_Temperature_-_November_2007.jpg License: Public Domain
Contributors: NASA image by Jesse Allen, using AMSR-E data processed and provided by Chelle Gentemann and Frank Wentz, Remote Sensing Systems.
File:La Nina regional impacts.gif Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:La_Nina_regional_impacts.gif License: GNU Free Documentation License Contributors: NOAA
File:Enso-index-map.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Enso-index-map.png License: unknown Contributors: Original uploader was William M. Connolley at
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File:Major-hurricanes-Atl El-Nino Modoki.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Major-hurricanes-Atl_El-Nino_Modoki.png License: Public Domain Contributors:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center - Historical Hurricane Tracks
File:Mean sst equatorial pacific.gif Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Mean_sst_equatorial_pacific.gif License: unknown Contributors: Original uploader was SEWilco at
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File:Sstanom 199711 krig.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Sstanom_199711_krig.jpg License: Public Domain Contributors: Image based on data from the
IRI/LDEO Climate Data Library
Image:La Nina and Pacific Decadal Anomalies - April 2008.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:La_Nina_and_Pacific_Decadal_Anomalies_-_April_2008.png
License: Public Domain Contributors: NASA image by Jesse Allen, AMSR-E data processed and provided by Chelle Gentemann and Frank Wentz, Remote Sensing Systems
Image:Atmospheric bridge.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Atmospheric_bridge.png License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0 Contributors:
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Image:Mixed_layer_depth_seasonal_cycle.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Mixed_layer_depth_seasonal_cycle.png License: Creative Commons
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Image:MilankovitchCyclesOrbitandCores.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:MilankovitchCyclesOrbitandCores.png License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0
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Image:Earth obliquity range.svg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Earth_obliquity_range.svg License: Public Domain Contributors: NASA, w:User:MysidMysid
Image:Earth precession.svg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Earth_precession.svg License: Public Domain Contributors: NASA, w:User:MysidMysid
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Image:precession and seasons.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Precession_and_seasons.jpg License: GNU Free Documentation License Contributors:
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Image:Cyclic deposits.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Cyclic_deposits.jpg License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Contributors: User:Verisimilus
Image:Vostok 420ky 4curves insolation.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Vostok_420ky_4curves_insolation.jpg License: Public Domain Contributors:
Alexander.stohr, Bender235, Elvey, Pieter Kuiper, Pmsyyz, Suarez ruibal, Telim tor, TommyBee, 2 anonymous edits
Image:Five Myr Climate Change.svg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Five_Myr_Climate_Change.svg License: unknown Contributors: User:Dragons flight, User:Jo
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Image:InsolationSummerSolstice65N.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:InsolationSummerSolstice65N.png License: Public Domain Contributors: User:Incredio
Image:SeasonDuration.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:SeasonDuration.png License: GNU Free Documentation License Contributors: User:Ariel., User:Cydebot,
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Nils Simon, WikipediaMaster, Xenoforme, Xiong Chiamiov, 3 anonymous edits
Image:Sunspot Numbers.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Sunspot_Numbers.png License: unknown Contributors: Chricton, Dragons flight, Hairy Dude, Mmxx,
Nagy, Newone, Nils Simon, Wknight94, 9 anonymous edits
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SEWilco, 1 anonymous edits
Image:Milankovitch Variations.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Milankovitch_Variations.png License: unknown Contributors: Bender235, David Legrand,
Dragons flight, Flappiefh, Glenn, Pflatau, Pieter Kuiper, 1 anonymous edits
Image:Magnetosphere rendition.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Magnetosphere_rendition.jpg License: Public Domain Contributors: w:NASANASA
Image:Heliosphere drawing.gif Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Heliosphere_drawing.gif License: Public Domain Contributors: CarolSpears, Wikier
Image:Carbon14-sunspot-1000px.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Carbon14-sunspot-1000px.png License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0
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File:MtCleveland ISS013-E-24184.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:MtCleveland_ISS013-E-24184.jpg License: unknown Contributors: ISS Crew Earth
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File:Volcano scheme.svg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Volcano_scheme.svg License: GNU Free Documentation License Contributors: user:MesserWoland
File:Pinatubo ash plume 910612.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Pinatubo_ash_plume_910612.jpg License: unknown Contributors: D. Harlow
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File:Rinjani 1994.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Rinjani_1994.jpg License: Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Contributors: *drew, Geofrog, Indon, Kam Solusar,
Krinkle, Rémih, Saperaud, Spolloman, 7 anonymous edits
File:Three Waikupanaha and one Ki lava ocean entries w-edit2.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Three_Waikupanaha_and_one_Ki_lava_ocean_entries_w-edit2.jpg
License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0 Contributors: Mila Zinkova; edited by jjron Original uploader was Jjron at en.wikipedia
File:FujiSunriseKawaguchiko2025WP.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:FujiSunriseKawaguchiko2025WP.jpg License: Public Domain Contributors: Araisyohei,
CasinoKat, Fg2, LERK, Myself488, Pmx, Reggaeman, 2 anonymous edits
Image Sources, Licenses and Contributors 608
File:Lakagigar Iceland 2004-07-01.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Lakagigar_Iceland_2004-07-01.jpg License: GNU Free Documentation License Contributors:
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File:VeyoVolcano.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:VeyoVolcano.jpg License: Public Domain Contributors: User:Wilson44691
File:Mt.Mayon tam3rd.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Mt.Mayon_tam3rd.jpg License: Attribution Contributors: . Original uploader was Tam3rd at en.wikipedia
File:Toba zoom.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Toba_zoom.jpg License: Public Domain Contributors: Denys, Gilgameshkun, Joolz, Martin H., Olivier2, Rémih,
Thuresson, 1 anonymous edits
File:Herðubreið-Iceland-2.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Herðubreið-Iceland-2.jpg License: GNU Free Documentation License Contributors: User:Seattle Skier
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