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ISSUE 2011/03

APRIL 2011
bruegelpolicybrief

A G2 FOR SCIENCE?

by Reinhilde Veugelers THE ISSUE Science is becoming increasingly globalised. The emerging eco-
Senior Fellow at Bruegel
Professor at the University of Leuven
nomic powerhouses, particularly China, are building up their own scientific
reinhilde.veugelers@bruegel.org capabilities rapidly and in a targeted way. This is provoking concern within
advanced economies that they might be losing their advantage in the
scientific domains that can be part of the foundation for new areas of
growth. Strategies for knowledge-based growth, such as the European
Union's 2020 strategy, must take these global trends into account if they
are to deliver long-term international competitiveness.
POLICY CHALLENGE

Both the European Union and the United States must adapt to the scientific
surge from China and other emerging nations. In the US, decision makers
fear that their open model for building scientific power, based to a great
extent on recruiting talent from abroad, has passed its peak. But for the
moment the US-China connection is still strong, growing, virtuous and
mutually beneficial. In fact, the emerging multipolar science world looks set
to be dominated by a US-China
Trends in China’s share of world
G2. With its more inward-looking
scientific publications (%)
perspective, the EU needs to do
12
more than focus on internal
1998
10
2008 integration. The European
8
Research Area programme pro-
vides the framework for a
6
European policy agenda, but
4 this should place much greater
2
and more urgent emphasis on
building excellence and open-
0
All articles Top 1 articles All engineering Top 1 engineering
ness to researchers and their
articles articles institutions from outside the EU.
Source: Bruegel based on NSF, Science and Engineering Indicators 2010.
A G2 FOR SCIENCE?

SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH used to be increasing numbers of talented with China the most impressive
02 predominantly a developed-world
activity, with the United States at
Chinese scientists. case. We then study the impact of
these shifts on the international
bruegelpolicybrief

the forefront and the European The changing face of the scientific mobility of scientific talent and
Union close behind. But a more world shows how many emerging the patterns of international
multipolar scientific world is in country governments have come scientific collaboration. Most of
the making, in which several to view science and technology this analysis focuses on the rela-
emerging nations will participate as integral to economic growth, tionship between the US and
prominently. The most striking and have consequently taken China. That the EU is not promi-
case is China, which is going steps to develop their science nent in the analysis reflects its
through a uniquely rapid rise. In and technology infrastructures. In position on the sidelines. With its
fact, the future multipolar its twelfth five-year plan (2011- more inward-looking model, will
scientific world looks set to be 15)1 China lists the promotion of the EU be able to respond to the
dominated by a G2 – China and scientific and technological globalisation of science? We con-
the US – which will build on self- progress and innovation as a clude with a discussion on the
reinforcing links. major tool for supporting strategic policy implications for the EU if it
economic restructuring, and aims wants a seat at the new global
The EU needs to adapt if it is to to be the world's scientific leader science table.
keep pace. At present, it is mostly by 2050. Consistent with the
focused on creating an integrated build up of its high-tech industrial THE CHANGING GEOGRAPHY OF
internal market. Its international competitiveness, China is becom- SCIENCE
collaborations are marked by pro- ing particularly strong in
nounced EU-supported, intra-EU engineering, chemistry and The US and the EU have for
collaboration, diverting attention physics. decades led the world in produc-
from the US and emerging Asia as tion of scientific knowledge in
scientific collaboration partners. In this Policy Brief we first look at both quantity and quality terms2.
The EU is also less active than the the shifts in global science, However, in quantity terms, both
US as a source and destination on asking if new scientific power- the US and the EU, and other
the world market for scientific houses have emerged. The developed nations have started
talent. answer is clearly that they have, to lose ground to Asia, particularly
1. http://www.gov.cn/
english/. By contrast, the US science model Figure 1: Science and engineering journal articles (000s)
2. Publications and has traditionally been very open. 250
citations as recorded European Union
by Thomson’s ISI-Web of Because the US science and engi-
Science journals, which neering workforce is highly 200
includes only journals United States
that satisfy a number
dependent on foreigners, espe-
of quality criteria cially from Asia, the rise of Asia 150
(internationally peer-
reviewed). These
provokes deep concern about the Rest of world
journals carry an Eng- sustainability of the American 100
lish-language bias as capacity for innovation and inter- Asia-10
well as a disciplinary Japan
bias in favour of bio- national competitiveness. 50
medicine and life However, there are no signs so far Asia-8
China
sciences. For a similar
analysis of world that the open US model has 0
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
scientific publications, become less attractive to foreign
using the Scopus data- Source: Bruegel based on NSF, Science and Engineering Indicators 2010. Note: Asia-8: India,
base, see Royal Society
talent. On the contrary, the US Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Asia-10: Asia-8
(2011). continues to attract and retain plus China and Japan. Counts for 2008 are incomplete.
A G2 FOR SCIENCE?

China. China has doubled its (three to 15 percent), and quality distribution, more than
output since 2004 and now pub-
lishes more than any other
physics (four to 13 percent).
India and South Korea are also
half of cited articles continue to
originate from the US. This posi-
03

bruegelpolicybrief
country apart from the US (Figure notable for increasing volumes of tion is only slightly eroding, with
1). Publication frequency has engineering articles. However, in the EU catching up in the top
also risen in other emerging life sciences China is still weak. segment (whereas in quantity
nations such as Brazil, South For the moment, the EU and the terms it has outperformed the US
Korea and Turkey. By contrast, the US are holding on to their predom- since 1994).
quantitative performances of inant role in this area (Table 1).
India and Russia have stagnated China and other Asian countries
or declined. Quality of research is another are for now only very modestly
matter of course. In terms of making inroads into the top
China's research priorities are research impact, measured by segment. However, in specific
shown by a big jump in its share the number of times scientific fields, engineering being the
of world publications in engineer- publications are cited, the US's prime example, the top segment
ing (from three percent in 1995 to dominant position is less con- is also contested. China and other
13 percent in 2007), chemistry tested (Table 2). At the top of the Asian countries are already
having a significant impact on
Table 1: Share of region in world publications, by field (%, 2007) this discipline, and the gap
US EU China Japan Asia-8 between China/Asia and the
All fields 28 32 8 7 7 EU/US is closing fast.
Engineering 20 28 13 8 15
Chemistry 16 31 15 9 11 THE CHANGING GEOGRAPHY OF
Physics 18 31 13 10 10 R&D EXPENDITURES AND
Life sciences 34 34 4 7 5 WORKFORCES

Table 2: Trends in publications shares across the quality distribution (%) The rise in the scientific output of
Share of Bottom50 Asia, particularly China, corre-
All fields Share of all articles Share of Top1 articles
articles lates with substantial investment
1998 2008 1998 2008 1998 2008 by these countries in building up
US 34 29 62 52 30 25 their scientific and technological
EU 35 33 25 30 34 33 capacities (Figure 2, panel A, on
Japan 8.5 7.8 4.3 4.5 9 8.5 the next page). South Korean R&D
China 1.6 5.9 0.1 2.5 2 6.7 spending has increased steeply,
Asia-8 3.6 6.8 0.3 2.2 4.5 7.9 and China’s R&D/GDP ratio has
Engineer- Share of Bottom50
more than doubled, from 0.6 per-
Share of all articles Share of Top1 articles cent in 1996 to 1.5 percent in
ing articles
1998 2008 1998 2008 1998 2008 2007, a period during which
US 30 21 49 38 28 19 China’s GDP grew at 12 percent
annually – an enormous, sus-
EU 30 29 29 25 29 27
tained increase. China plans a 2.2
Japan 12 10 9 6 12 11.5
percent R&D/GDP ratio for 2011-
China 3.1 10.4 1.3 10.6 3.4 10.6
15. By comparison, although it
Asia-8 7.9 14.1 2.2 10.6 8.5 14.9 has a three percent research
Source for both tables: Bruegel based on NSF, Science and Engineering Indicators 2010. Note:
Top1: 99th percentile of citations received; Bottom50: publications with 0 or 1 citations; 1998 are
spending target, the EU continues
all 1994-96 articles cited by 1998 articles; 2008 are all 2004-06 articles cited by 2008 articles. to hover below two percent.
A G2 FOR SCIENCE?

Estimates of the number of China, where natural sciences Universities are on the way to
04 scientific researchers provide
broad support for the trends and
and engineering doctorates
increased more than tenfold up to
being among the world's elite uni-
versities. Both are already listed
bruegelpolicybrief

shifts suggested by the R&D data 2006, close to the number among the top 200 in the Shang-
(Figure 2, panel B, on the next awarded in the US (about hai Ranking of Research
page). China has more than dou- 21,000). In the EU there has been Universities3.
bled its research workforce, little increase in the number of
boosting its world share from 13 doctorates. It is also worth noting SHIFTING PATTERNS IN
percent to 25 percent between that, in the US, 31 percent of doc- INTERNATIONAL MOBILITY OF
1995-2007. It now has as many torates are awarded to students STUDENTS AND SCHOLARS
researchers in its workforce as the from China, 14 percent to stu-
EU and US: about 1.4 million. dents from India, and seven What will the impact of the rise of
percent to students from South the Asian scientific powerhouses
And there are many more Chinese Korea. be on science in advanced
researchers to come, as indicated economies? In particular, does a
by bachelor, master and PhD The Chinese programme of build- shift of scientific power to Asia
degree award trends. This holds ing indigenous scientific capacity mean that the flows of scientific
particularly for natural sciences concentrates on the top end. Of talent from east to west will dry
and engineering. While western the 1700 Chinese chartered insti- up, crippling the advanced
governments are concerned tutes of higher education, six economies’ scientific machines?
about lagging student interest in percent are so-called 'Project 211'
these areas, which are consid- national key universities and col- US universities import much of
ered vital for knowledge-intensive leges. These receive 70 percent of their scientific talent from abroad,
economies, the number of first scientific research funding, and particularly from Asia, and are
university degrees awarded in award degrees to about a third of therefore particularly worried
these fields in China has risen all Chinese undergraduate stu- about continuing to be able to fill
spectacularly from about dents, two-thirds of graduate their laboratories with imported
239,000 in 1998 to 807,000 in students and four-fifths of doc- brains. This concern, however, is
2006. The trend is also seen in toral students. Within the Project not so far justified by the data. On
the award of PhD degrees in 211 group, Tsinghua and Beijing the contrary, the evidence shows

Figure 2: A (left panel) R&D expenditures as % of GDP;


B (right panel) Number of researchers by geographic area (000s, full-time equivalent)
4.0 1600
United States
3.5 1400
Japan
3.0 1200
United States
China
2.5 1000
South Korea European Union
2.0 800
Japan
European Union
1.5 600
Russia
China
1.0 400

0.5 200
South Korea
0 0
3. See 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
http://www.arwu.org/.
Source: Bruegel based on NSF, Science and Engineering Indicators 2010. Note: US data for 2007 estimated based on 2004–06 growth rate.
A G2 FOR SCIENCE?

that the international mobility of Table 3: Non-US recipients of US ular are significantly higher than
scientific talent is increasing. PhDs by home country (%, all fields)
Share of total Plan to stay
the rates for other foreigners (see
Black and Stephan, 2007). And as
05

bruegelpolicybrief
While in 2000, 1.9 million foreign 96-99 04-07 96-99 04-07 Table 3 shows these high Chinese
students were enrolled in tertiary China 26 31 93 91
and Indian PhD stay rates have
education outside their country of not diminished during the time
India 12 12 90 89
origin, the figure was more than period.
S. Korea 9 10 50 69
three million in 2007 (OECD,
2009). The most significant Europe 14 14 71 75 Many foreign PhD students move
country of origin of these stu- Source: NSF, Science and Engineering Indica- after their PhD studies to take up
tors 2010.
dents was, not surprisingly, China post-doctoral positions in other
(15 percent of all foreign enrolled any other institutions, with native US research institutes, which
tertiary students), followed by Berkeley only coming in third recruit post-docs both from US
India (5.4 percent). The favoured place (Stephan, 2011). and non-US graduate schools.
destinations for these students Post-doc positions are thus
were the US (20 percent), fol- The presence of foreign PhD stu- another entry point to the US for
lowed by the UK (20 percent), dents in the EU is less well foreign talent. The share of tempo-
Germany (8.5 percent) and systematically recorded. The rary residents among post-docs
France (8.2 percent). The China- imperfect evidence shows that at US universities stood at 57 per-
US flow is thus the most the PhD student populations of EU cent in 2006 (NSF, 2010) up from
important international educa- countries have fewer foreigners 51 percent in 1993. Asians are
tional connection, closely compared to the US, and the ori- also taking more academic posi-
followed by the India-US flow. The gins of foreign PhD students are tions in US institutes. In 2006,
China-US flow has not reduced, different, with a less strong Asian about 17 percent of academic
notwithstanding China’s increas- presence and geographic, cultural positions were held by Asians
ing indigenous scientific capacity. and political links being more (with US citizenship or foreign
On the contrary, the number of important4. born), up from eight percent in
4. The pattern of foreign
Chinese students 1981 (NSF, 2010). PhDs in the EU is com-
heading to the US ‘Foreigners in US One could interpret pletely different to the
US. First, there are fewer
increased at an aver-
academic institutes the evidence as There is evidence that foreigners foreign PhDs in the EU:
Other-EU nationals rep-
age annual rate of showing that Asian in US academic institutes, having
contribute countries are building
resent five percent of
8.5 percent between gone through a tougher selection doctoral candidates,
1997-2008 (NSF, disproportionally their capacities in process, contribute dispropor- Extra-EU nationals rep-
resent 17 percent,
2010). to top science.’ natural sciences and tionally to top science. Foreigners spread between Asia,
Africa and Latin Amer-
engineering by send- in the US are twice as likely than ica. Major destination
When focusing on PhD students ing their students to the best natives to be the first author on countries are the UK
(for Asia), France (for
among tertiary students, the training ground in the world – the frequently cited 'hot papers', or to Africa) and Spain (for
China-US link is even more pro- US – in order to bring them back be among the most-cited authors Latin America). Source:
Mougeroux (2006).
nounced. China’s share of PhD home with state-of-the-art (Stephan and Levin, 2007). A vir-
5. See eg China’s Thou-
degrees awarded by US institu- scientific knowledge. The data, tuous circle thus seems to sand Talents
tions to foreigners continues to however, do not show high return emerge: the US's top position in Programme, offering
positions, housing,
grow, being almost one third of all rates for foreign students who science is based on its openness equipment, research
'foreign' PhDs in the US in 2007 have obtained a PhD in the US, at to the best foreign talents, who teams, funding and
preferential tax treat-
(Table 3). Tsinghua and Beijing least in the period immediately stay long enough to make a con- ment for researchers
Universities provide more stu- after PhD graduation. Stay rates tribution to quality science, and working overseas who
come back to work in
dents to US graduate schools than for Asian PhDs in the US in partic- this top position continues to China.
A G2 FOR SCIENCE?

attract the best foreign talent. The on this flow of talent, benefit less. ing occupations in the US in 2003.
06 EU has not managed to establish
such a virtuous open model.
The EU’s collaboration with China
remains at a far lower level that it
For holders of doctorates, the
figure was 40 percent (NSF,
bruegelpolicybrief

could be, considering the growth 2010). About half of the foreign-
What if the rise of indigenous of China’s scientific power. born scientists and engineers in
scientific and technological the US are from Asia (16 percent
capacity in Asia/China should By contrast, intra-EU collabora- from India, 11 percent from China,
eventually persuade their foreign- tion has substantially increased 4-6 percent each from the Philip-
educated scientists to return over time, suggesting progress pines, South Korea, and Taiwan).
home? As Table 3 shows, this has been made in building the The Chinese share increases to
does not yet seem to be happen- integrated European Research 22 percent for those with a PhD.
ing, at least not immediately after Area (ERA), but diverting from
graduation. But Asian scientists extra-EU collaboration. Foreign talent is thus vital for US
could be returning home at later science and engineering6. This
stages in their careers. There is no IMPACT BEYOND SCIENCE explains why the US fears that its
doubt that China is aggressively science machine will start to
seeking to bring home talented Beyond academia, foreign-born splutter if the pool of mobile for-
individuals5. But hard data sup- PhDs are also widespread in the eign talent entering the US dries
porting the importance of these US private sector research work- up. There is no clear evidence so
return flows is still lacking. In any force. Foreigners made up 25 far to justify this fear. For the
case, return flows at later career percent of tertiary-educated moment, the increase in Asia’s
stages still leaves plenty of scope workers in science and engineer- own capacity to produce science
for the host country to benefit
from imported foreign talent. Table 4: Collaboration trends; International Collaboration Index for selected
country pairs (1998-2008)
INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION With US 1998 2008 With China 1998 2008
IN SCIENCE US-UK 0.67 0.74 CN-UK 0.58 0.52
US-GER 0.68 0.68 CN-GER 0.6 0.44
Is China also becoming a new US-FRA 0.56 0.6 CN-FRA 0.39 0.38
partner for scientific cooperation
US-JAP 1.03 0.89 CN-JAP 1.53 1.38
with the west? The data does not
US-CN 0.82 0.97 CN-US 0.82 0.97
show major shifts in collaboration
US-SKOR 1.38 1.23 CN-SKOR 1.72 1.17
patterns (Table 4). The emerging
6. There is also evidence scientific powerhouses, particu- US-INDIA 0.92 0.79 CN-INDIA 0.98 0.64
that foreigners are
increasingly responsible larly China, are still relatively Intra-EU 1998 2008 Intra-EU 1998 2008
for US patents. Freeman under-represented as partners for UK-GER 0.68 0.86 NL-BEL 2.5 2.68
(2005) reports that one
quarter of US patent the west. China’s collaboration is UK-FRA 0.73 0.87 NL-GER 0.95 1.29
applications filed at the
World Intellectual Prop-
mostly with other Asian UK-IT 0.86 1.04 GER-PL 1.15 1.34
erty Organisation in economies. Its collaboration with UK-NL 1.05 1.27 GER-CZ 1.27 1.46
2006 were authored by
a non-US national, up
the US has increased over time on FRA-GER 0.74 0.91 PL-CZ 2.15 3.48
from seven percent in par with the growth of its own FRA-IT 1.12 1.34 SE-FIN 3.39 3.98
1998. Of US technology
and engineering start- scientific power. The intense flow ES-IT 1.38 1.63 SE-DK 2.88 3.38
ups, about one quarter of PhDs between the US and China
have an immigrant as a ES-PT 2.55 2.9 FIN-DK 2.36 3.15
key founder. For Silicon undoubtedly contributes to
Valley start-ups, this Source: Bruegel based on NSF, Science and Engineering Indicators 2010. Note: an index of inter-
smoother US-China collaboration. national collaboration corrects for the effects of the unequal size of countries’ research
may be even more than
half (Demos, 2008). European countries, missing out establishments. Values above ‘1’ indicate greater-than-expected rates of collaboration.
A G2 FOR SCIENCE?

and engineering degrees does not education. Their governments scholars to the best institutes in
seem to have disconnected the
US from the pool of potential
have firmly built investment in
higher education and science into
the world, and reaping the bene-
fits when they return, typically at
07

bruegelpolicybrief
Asian scientists. In fact, the con- their development policies as later stages in their careers when
trary seems to be the case. they vie to build competitiveness they have fully developed their
in technology-intensive sectors. capabilities, leaving enough of a
On the back of an increase in its The result has been a continued window of opportunity for the
indigenous scientific and techno- increase in the scientific power of host country to likewise benefit
logical capacity, Asia has become these countries. from them. This favours the con-
an increasingly attractive loca- tinued robustness of the
tion for multinational companies' The benefits from a more global mutually-beneficial unique China-
research activities. In an UNCTAD science world will US connection. While
survey of the world's biggest cor- accrue to many, but ‘The globalisation this continues, the
porate R&D spenders, China some will benefit
of science is mainly global science land-
(third) and India (sixth) were more than others. scape will look more
about the relation-
already among the top-ranked The open US like a G2 than a truly
countries for corporate R&D. As scientific system has ship between China multipolar global
future target locations, China was traditionally bene- and the US.’ system.
ranked first and India third fited from foreign
(UNCTAD, 2005). brains. The US's dominant posi- The evidence in this Policy Brief
tion in science is based on its shows that the globalisation of
When asked why they are moving openness to the brightest talents science is primarily a story about
their R&D labs east, western firms of all nationalities. Its top position the relationship between China
report not only lower labour costs continues to attract the best tal- and the US. The EU, to a great
and the importance of the growth ents of all nationalities, who extent, remains on the sideline. In
potential of Asian markets, but disproportionally contribute to US this context, the EU has some
also, and equally scientific, technologi- serious thinking to do about its
important, the quality cal and economic place in the future global science
of R&D resources ‘The EU, to a great success. With contin- landscape. For now it is largely
and the proximity to extent, remains on ued high attrition holding its own, based on the
universities and the sidelines of the rates and high stay intensifying process of intra-EU
institutes (Thursby globalisation of rates for Asian scien- integration, the making of a Euro-
and Thursby, 2006). tists, this open pean Research Area (ERA).
science process.’
The increase in Asia’s model, at least for the However, it does not have the
indigenous scientific moment, continues same deep openness to foreign
capacity is therefore increasingly to bear fruit for the US, even if its scientific talent as the US, imply-
becoming a factor in the attrac- most important source country, ing that steps must be taken if the
tiveness of Asia for western China, is rapidly developing its EU is to ride the waves of
corporate R&D labs. own scientific capability and scientific globalisation.
wants to bring its foreign-based
EU POLICY IMPLICATIONS scholars home. As a starter, the EU must show
more commitment to joining the
Emerging economies have China’s scientific growth model, science globalisation train, and to
grasped that scientific power is aspiring to be indigenous, subsequently ensuring that Euro-
based on ambition and massive involves sending out its increas- pean economies will benefit.
investment in R&D and higher ingly better locally-trained European science and technology
A G2 FOR SCIENCE?

policymakers should therefore the new knowledge generated but should be a lever for global
promote scientific collaboration abroad, and that European integration.
outside the EU, should do more to research institutes and firms will
08 attract and retain the best foreign
talent, and should stimulate the
be more attractive hubs for the
best talent from abroad, and will
The globalisation of science will
undoubtedly bring unprecedented
bruegelpolicybrief

EU's talents to go to the best uni- be better able to connect with scientific and economic benefits
versities and institutes, wherever new scientific hotspots. to the world. But it will also pro-
they are in the world. Connections voke concerns about increased
with these outflows must be ERA, the European Commission’s competition. Only the best will be
maintained, and incentives must long-running programme to able to master this game of com-
be provided to encourage schol- establish an integrated market for petition and cooperation.
ars to return home, at optimal research in the EU7, provides the
stages in their careers. framework for this European When Freeman (2005) asked a
policy agenda, but it should be top Harvard physicist, who had
A large scientific area charac- given a much greater sense of published important work in coop-
terised by scientific excellence is urgency with a much stronger eration with Asian scientists, "so,
a necessary condition for this focus on building excellence and you are helping them catch up
policy agenda. Excellence will openness to researchers and with us?" the scientist replied,
ensure that talented people in their institutions from outside the "no, they are helping us keep
European research institutes and EU. The intra-EU mobility agenda ahead of them".
firms will be better able to absorb should not be about navel gazing,

REFERENCES:
Black, F. and P. Stephan (2007) ‘The importance of foreign PhD students to US science’, in P. Stephan and R.
Ehrenberg (eds) Science and the University, The University of Wisconsin Press
Bound, K. (2007) India: the uneven innovator, DEMOS Atlas of Ideas series, http://www.demos.co.uk/projects/
atlasofideas
Freeman, R., (2005) ‘Does globalisation of the scientific/engineering workforce threaten US economic leader-
ship?’ NBER Working Paper 11457
Moguerou, P. (2006) ‘The brain drain of PhDs from Europe to the US, what we know and what we would like to
know’, EUI Working Papers 2006/11, European University Institute
OECD (2009) Education at a glance 2009: OECD indicators, http://www.oecd.org/edu/eag2009
Royal Society (2011) ‘Knowledge networks and nations: global science collaborations in the 21st century’,
Policy Document 3/11
Stephan, P. and S. Levin (2007) ‘Foreign scholars in US science: contributions and costs’, in P. Stephan and R.
Ehrenberg (eds) Science and the University, The University of Wisconsin Press
Stephan, P. (2011) The Economics of Science, forthcoming
Thursby, J. and M. Thursby (2006) Here or There? A survey of factors in multinational R&D location, The National
Academies Press, Washington DC
UNCTAD (2005) World Investment Report 2005, Transnational Corporations and the Internationalisation of R&D

© Bruegel 2011. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted in
the original language without explicit permission provided that the source is acknowledged. The Bruegel
Policy Brief Series is published under the editorial responsibility of Jean Pisani-Ferry, Director. Opinions
7. See expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) alone.
http://ec.europa.eu/rese
arch/era/index_en.htm. Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, B-1210 Brussels, (+32) 2 227 4210 info@bruegel.org www.bruegel.org

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