ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION

GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
Outlook for Week XXI_May 23 to 27_TD 099-103 s 2011
1 of 3

OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK

ACTIVITY [YTD
NET VOLUM E 2,685,647,436 2,468,395,770 8.80% 1,637,867,112 63.97%
DAILY AVERAGES]
NET VALUE 4,521,643,261.93 4,510,720,052.26 0.24% 4,603,800,556.27 -1.78%
ISSUES TRADED 175 175 0.00% N/A N/A
TRADES 15,023 14,982 0.27% N/A N/A
FOREIGN (BUY) 2,218,783,240.31 2,233,737,058.87 -0.67% 1,972,980,083.85 12.46%
FOREIGN (SELL) 2,003,440,936.70 2,010,930,072.30 -0.37% 1,752,691,290.38 14.31%
FOREIGN (NET) 215,342,303.61 222,806,986.57 -3.35% 220,288,793.48 -2.25%
INDICATORS AD Line -584.00 -523.00 11.66% -508.00 14.96%
%K STO(14,3) 74.32 81.79 -9.14% 95.12 -21.87%
%D (STO(14,3,3) 70.53 79.65 -11.45% 72.13 -2.22%
RSI(14) 54.76 57.46 -4.71% 56.61 -3.28%
EM A(10) 4,290.59 4,291.69 -0.03% 4,149.40 3.40%
EM A(50) 4,181.84 4,157.93 0.57% 4,119.42 1.52%
EM A(150) 4,019.82 4,001.28 0.46% 3,839.39 4.70%

PHILIPPINE MARKET STATS

INDEX LAST WEEK% YTD% MAJOR INFLUENCES THIS WEEK:
PSEI 4,285.16 -0.16 2.00
ALL 2,997.38 -0.18 -0.30
FIN 969.20 2.71 0.80 In the US, a host of important and expected high impact economic numbers
IND 7,021.17 -1.73 -2.76 are seen to provide leads to the market. On top of the list is the New Home
HDG 3,532.86 -1.87 4.25 Sales for April due out on Tuesday.
PRO 1,592.98 0.91 0.66
SVC 1,554.93 -0.05 -2.23 550.00
M&O 18,270.27 2.35 30.99 500.00
WORLD MARKETS 450.00
INDEX LAST WEEK% YTD% 400.00
DOW 12,512.04 -0.66 8.07 350.00
S&P 1,333.27 -0.34 6.01
300.00
NASDAQ 2,803.32 -0.89 5.67
250.00
FTSE 100 5,948.49 0.38 0.82
DAX 7,266.82 -1.84 5.10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CAC 40 3,990.85 -0.70 4.89
ACTUAL REVISED
MSCI APEX 50 903.45 -0.52 4.31
TOPIX 827.77 -1.45 -7.90
NIKKEI 225 9,607.08 -0.43 -6.08
Over the last 12 months, the results have been erratic, drawing a sideways
HANGSENG 23,199.40 -0.33 0.71 movement with a slight negative bias. Seven times, the actual numbers fell
SHANGHAI 2,858.46 -0.44 1.79 below forecast . Actual figures were revised lower half the time, and eve with
TAIEX 8,837.03 -1.88 -1.51 such adjustments, missed forecast increased to eight (8) of the twelve months.
KOSPI 2,111.50 -0.40 2.95
S&P/ASX 200 4,732.20 0.44 -0.27
ALL ORDINARIES 4,807.70 0.43 The housing sector is a critical segment of the US economy, attracting for the
-0.81
NZ50 3,577.44 1.18 biggest chunk of
8.11
SET 1,072.94 -1.11 consumer3.89 15.00

10.00
JKCI 3,872.95 1.07 4.58
spending. As 5.00
BSESN 18,326.10 -1.11 -10.64
Straits Times 3,168.54 0.15 such there is a
-0.67
0.00

KLCI 1,541.03 0.02 strong 1.46

-5.00

-10.00
HO CHI MINH 432.87 -9.76 correlation
-10.69 -15.00

between the -20.00

housing market and consumer demand for manufactured products. -25.00
Needless to say, a strong recovery in the housing segment will spur -30.00 MAY JUNE JULY AUGU SEPTE OCTO NOVE DECE JANUA FEBRU MARC APRIL
manufacturers to ramp up their outputs to meet the expected surge 2010 2010 2010 ST
2010
MBER
2010
BER
2010
MBER
2010
MBER RY
2010 2011
ARY
2011
H 2011 2011

in demand. The “domino”-effect reverberates throughout the entire ACTUAL FORECAST

economy.

At the end of the week (Friday), another data series, this time for Pending Home Sales will be released. As the table to the right
shows, the inverse to the New Homes Sales is observed, with actual results bettering forecast in most months. The biggest slump
in this series was recorded in July last year, when it dropped by -30%, while the best month over the same 12-month chain was
registered in December, with sales growing at a 10% clip. Actual figures bettered forecasts by an average of 1.61% in the period
considered.

DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO OTHERS. UNDER NO
CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT
REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY
INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-
WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.
ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION
GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
Outlook for Week XXI_May 23 to 27_TD 099-103 s 2011
2 of 3

2.50
2.00

On Tuesday, the Census Bureau sheds light on Core Durable Goods

1.50
1.00

Orders for April. The series is seen as indicative of forward

0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
production levels. Increased placement of orders translates to
-2.00
-2.50
increased production to fill up such orders. Again, the results over
-3.00
-3.50
the last 12 months have been mixed. It missed forecast half the
-4.00
time. Alternatively bettering it the in the balance.
APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEM OCTOB NOVEM DECEM JANUAR FEBRUA MARCH APRIL
2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 BER ER 2010 BER BER Y 2011 RY 2011 2011 2011
2010 2010 2010
ACTUAL
FORECAST

The all-important Initial Unemployment Claims, reported 490.00

470.00
weekly, comes out Thursday. In the accompanying chart, we 450.00
observe the huge drop in in the jobless claims in the last two 430.00

weeks, from an interim high of 474k (annualized) in the week- 410.00

ending May 5. This has slowed the rise in the data series' four- 390.00
370.00
week (one-month) moving average to a 439k pace, +0.34% 350.00
above the prior week's level, compared to the 1.28% additions
in the preceding period. Much of the hopes for a sustained

1
4
2
3
0

1
3
0

1
7
4
0

1
4
0

1
2
4
0

1
8
2
4
0

1
5
0

2
1
5
0

9
1
5
0
/

/
recovery hinges on the housing and jobs sector. Consumer actual 4 wk avg
spending accounts for 70% of the US GDP, and, as mentioned on
top, the bulk of these are spent on housing.

Preliminary numbers for US GDP for Q1 will be known Thursday

US GDP evening, Manila time, prior to the opening of trades in New York.
8.00 The US economy has managed to post positive annualized
6.00 quarterly growths in the last six quarters, marked by alternating
4.00 semesters of rise and fall. The economy contracted in four
2.00 successive quarters from Q3 2008 to Q2 the following year.
- Initial forecast puts the number at 2.2%, slower than the 1.8%
(2.00)
advanced figure as well as the previous quarter's 2.8%.
(4.00)
(6.00)
US GDP numbers are reported thrice in three successive months
(8.00)
following the quarter being reported – advanced, preliminary
Q-08
2 -0
8
3 -0
8
4 -0
8
1 -0
9
2 -0
9
3 -0
9
4 -0
9
1 -1
0
2 -1
0
3 -1
0
4 -1
0

and final GDP, respectively. The changes account for the lag time
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
1

in some of the input data required to complete the picture.

US equities were trading lower past noon Friday as this piece is being written. Nevertheless, losses have been narrowed to -16.23
points from as much as -119.46 points at the 88 th minute. Playing a major influence on the early drain on sentiment was the
concern over a growing possibility of Greek default. Earlier, Fitch Ratings pared Greece's credit rating one notch, putting
investors on the defensive. The European debt problem has overshadowed the impact of US corporate earnings', which has
generally beat analysts' estimates. European markets were down by more than -1.0% Friday.

Here at home, corporate earnings, which so far has failed to make a significant impact on share prices, or at least failed to sustain
any earnings induced rallies, have began to show weakness. A number of listed firms, including index counters have reported
slower bottom-line growths, joining telco industry giant PLDT [pse: TEL/ nyse: PHI] The risks presented by external events have
made local investors' apprehensive and the recent weak earnings have added to the doubts.

PSEI TECHNICAL CONDITION

Over the last 37 weeks, the index has traded between a low of 3,705.18 (February 2011_week 4) and a high of 4,413.42
(November 2010_week 1) or, using the 37 week frame as reference, weeks 26 and 9, respectively. There was one attempt to
break past the 4,413.42 all-time, intra-day peak but it fell nearly 70 points short at 4,344.10 in the final week of April 2011. It has
had difficulty bettering the 4,330 since. In the week just ended, the highest point the index could muster was at 4.326.27.

DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO OTHERS. UNDER NO
CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT
REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY
INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-
WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.
ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION
GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
Outlook for Week XXI_May 23 to 27_TD 099-103 s 2011
3 of 3

Applying the Fibonacci lines, a crucial support level is drawn at the 4,130-4,150 range, levels the market last traded at in the first
week of April. The various technical indicators supports the market's “confused” stage, which has drawn investors looking for a
quick pop, towards “rumor-” and “news-” driven counters.

The market's weekly candlestick draws an indecision pattern,

following a bullish bias in the preceding week. Highlighting
the mixed sentiments prevailing in the market are the bearish,
bullish and neutral candlesticks in three successive weeks,
respectively. Combining them draws a generally balanced
view, although the more recent optimism that held sway in the
second of the three weeks which the third failed to completely
overturn, puts the bias just slightly positive. This is lent some
validity that, as shown in the accompanying weekly chart, the
index has managed to hold levels above three exponential
moving average lines – 10wEMA (4,191.57), 50wEMA
(3,887.85) and 150wEMA (3,339.74.) Without much
conviction however, the market will remain sensitive to the
rising risks overseas. Note that the 10-week EMA nearly
coincides with the earlier mentioned critical Fibonacci
retracement range, strengthening such point(s) as potential
rebound marks, ergo, buying entry doors.

The other indicators we have been following in our “daily guide” applied on the weekly charts offer the same mixed picture. The
Money Flow Index (MFI) points to a positive accumulation with the AccDist Line showing the opposite. STO (14,3,3) places the
market at still overbought territory, while both the Bollinger Bands and the MACD(12,26,9) posits neutrality. Note that none of
these indicators provide strong positive suggestions. The illustrations are not improved by shifting to the daily view.

We thus approach the oncoming week with caution, and heightened aversion to risky propositions -- unless you belong to the
enterprising lot who could stomach as roller-coaster rise on volatile issues – i.e shares of local miners that have dominated trades
in the recent sessions. Over-all, domestic leads will be provided by earnings, which remains positively biased. The risks and the
concern it raises are presented by external influences.

DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO OTHERS. UNDER NO
CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT
REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY
INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-
WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.