Daily Commodity Market Update as on Thursday, April 21, 2011

PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

Gold ended slightly down on MCX at 21773 but prices in
MCX
spot rose above $1,500 an ounce on Wednesday for the
GOLD 21809 21893 21740 21773 -0.23 first time ever as the dollar wilted, oil rose, worries over
SILVER 64835 66664 64835 65644 1.6 the U.S. economic outlook boosted demand for the metal
SPOT $ as a haven and rising inflation lifted Asian demand.
GOLD 1501.35 1508.3 1499.5 1505 0.25 precious metals this year. Silver prices ended higher on
aggressive speculative buying as well as a robust
SILVER 45.14 45.95 45.05 45.54 0.89
industrial demand caused by a steep overseas rally.
PLATINUM 1800.5 1800 1794 1800 0.11

ENERGY COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
Crude jumped on lift from government data showing
CRUDE 4870 4984 4864 4951 1.7 sharp drops in crude and refined products stockpiles, an
N.GAS 190 193.1 189.6 191.7 1.51 equities rally and a weaker dollar. Natural gas ended up
amid indications of increased demand as forecasts
SPOT $ showed warmer-than-normal weather in the southern
U.S. next week.
CRUDE 108.45 111.66 107.96 111.45 2.766252

BASEMETAL COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
Base metals mostly ended firm after the U.S. housing
COPPER 418.8 426.5 418.8 424.45 1.43
market showed more signs of revival, strong earnings
ZINC 104.45 105.1 103.6 104.05 -0.05
boosted U.S. equities and the dollar hit a 15-month low
NICKEL 1144.4 1176 1143.3 1171.8 2.55 against the euro
LEAD 116.9 118.8 116.3 117.2 0.64
ALUMINIUM 120.3 121.2 120 120.25 -0.21

LME LME STOCK

COPPER 9597 9597 9535 9540 -0.31 COPPER 1750 453700
ZINC 2356 2364 2355 2357 0.08 ZINC 26500 812100
NICKEL 26350 2735 26312 26600 0.91 NICKEL -774 118212
LEAD 2600 2620 2595.25 2606 0.04 LEAD 3525 301950
ALUMINIUM 2727 2620 2723 2723 -0.15 ALUMINIUM 9275 4604800

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX
19589.89 5878 2357.76 1330.36 8457.65 12453.54 9662.08 3027.64 2192.78 24099.13 74.13
0.61 0.45 2.21 1.35 1.51 1.52 0.59 0.69 1.05 0.85 -0.31

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 OPEN
21809
HIGH
21893
MCX GOLD FUTURE

LOW
21740
CLOSE
21773
% CNG
-0.23
VOLUME
29609
OI
12310
RE CNG
-51

INTRADAY LEVELS
Gold ended slightly down on MCX at 21773 but gold prices in spot rose above $1,500 an ounce on
Wednesday for the first time ever as the dollar wilted, oil rose, worries over the U.S. economic P.P. 21802
outlook boosted demand for the metal as a haven and rising inflation lifted Asian demand. While SUP 1 RES 1
investors in the United States and Europe are seeing the metal chiefly as a safe store of value and a
21711 21864
hedge against currency devaluation, stronger inflation and rising consumer incomes in China and
India are also boosting demand there. Total gold demand gained for a third year in 2010, led by a SUP 2 RES 2
66 percent jump in sales of gold bars to a record 880.5 metric tons, according to GFMS. Now support 21649 21955
for the gold MCX is seen at 21711 and below could see a test of 21649. Resistance is now likely to SUP 3 RES 3
be seen at 21864, a move above could see prices testing 21955.
21558 22017

OPEN
64835
MCX SILVER FUTURE

HIGH
66664
LOW
64835
CLOSE
65644
% CNG
1.6
VOLUME
131510
OI
14098
RE CNG
1049

INTRADAY LEVELS
Silver prices ended higher on aggressive speculative buying as well as a robust industrial demand
P.P. 65714
caused by a steep overseas rally. Firming trend at the domestic markets due to the marriage season
demand, also influenced the silver prices. Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust continued to rise, up SUP 1 RES 1
66.77 tonnes from the previous session to 11,183.69 tonnes by April 20. Silver opened the day on 64765 66594
its lows at 64835. Good buying as base metals and crude rose throughout the day took silver to an SUP 2 RES 2
intraday high of 66664. As profit taking later in the day took the silver to end the day at 65644.Now
63885 67543
support for the silver is seen at 64765 and below could see a test of 63885. Resistance is now likely
to be seen at 66594, a move above could see prices testing 67543. SUP 3 RES 3
62936 68423

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 OPEN
4870
HIGH
MCX CRUDE FUTURE

4984
LOW
4864
CLOSE
4951
% CNG
1.7
VOLUME
121742
OI
13453
RE CNG
84

INTRADAY LEVELS
Crude jumped on lift from government data showing sharp drops in crude and refined products
P.P. 4933
stockpiles, an equities rally and a weaker dollar. U.S. crude oil inventories fell 2.3 million barrels last
week, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly report. Gasoline stocks fell SUP 1 RES 1
1.58 million barrels and distillate inventories fell 2.5 million barrels, the EIA said. High oil prices have 4882 5002
hurt demand in China and the United States, and OPEC needs to raise output around June to stem SUP 2 RES 2
further price rises, the International Energy Agency's executive director said. Now support for the
4813 5053
crude is seen at 4882 and below could see a test of 4813. Resistance is now likely to be seen at
5002, a move above could see prices testing 5053. SUP 3 RES 3
4762 5122

OPEN
418.8
MCX COPPER FUTURE

HIGH
426.5
LOW
418.8
CLOSE
424.45
% CNG
1.43
VOLUME
87538
OI
26185
RE CNG
6.05

INTRADAY LEVELS
Copper rose after the U.S. housing market showed more signs of revival, strong earnings boosted
U.S. equities and the dollar hit a 15-month low against the euro. The US equities advanced in P.P. 423.3
response to the release of the data, which helped LME copper prices expand gains. The outlook for SUP 1 RES 1
copper is “extremely positive” as the global economic recovery strengthens. LME copper prices
420.0 427.7
tracked gains, reaching USD 9,590/mt. Finally, LME copper prices closed at USD 9,570/mt, up USD
187/mt, or a gain of 1.99%.Copper has touched a low of Rs 418.8 a kg after opening at Rs 418.8, SUP 2 RES 2
and last traded at Rs424.45.For today market is looking for the support at 420, a break below could 415.6 431.0
see a test of 415.6 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 427.7, a move above could SUP 3 RES 3
see prices testing 431.
412.3 435.4

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 OPEN
104.45
HIGH
105.1
MCX ZINC FUTURE

LOW
103.6
CLOSE
104.05
% CNG
-0.05
VOLUME
20344
OI
10663
RE CNG
-0.05

INTRADAY LEVELS

Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved -0.05% tracking slight weakness in LME prices. P.P. 104.3
LME zinc prices once touched USD 2,375/mt, with prices falling slightly to close at USD 2,355/mt, up SUP 1 RES 1
USD 11.5/mt, and with the high end touching the 5-day moving average. Market has opened at
103.4 104.9
104.45 & made a low of 103.6 versus the day high of 105.1. The total volume for the day was at
20344 lots and the open interest was at 10663.Now support for the zinc is seen at 103.4 and below SUP 2 RES 2
could see a test of 102.8. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 104.9, a move above could see 102.8 105.8
prices testing 105.8. SUP 3 RES 3
101.9 106.4

OPEN
1144.4
MCX NICKEL FUTURE

HIGH
1176
LOW
1143.3
CLOSE
1171.8
% CNG
2.55
VOLUME
48912
OI
8763
RE CNG
29.9

INTRADAY LEVELS

Nickel prices ended higher supported by firm equity market and weak US dollar. LME nickel LME P.P. 1164
nickel for delivery in three months opened at USD 25,500/mt and closed at USD 26,360/mt, up by SUP 1 RES 1
USD 785/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 26,440/mt and the lowest price at
1151 1184
USD 25,500/mt. Nickel has touched a low of Rs 1143.3 a kg after opening at Rs.1144.4, and last
traded at Rs 1171.8.For today market is looking for the support at 1151.4, a break below could see SUP 2 RES 2
a test of 1131 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 1184.1, a move above could see 1131 1196
prices testing 1196.4. SUP 3 RES 3
1119 1217

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MCX ALUMINIUM FUTURE
OPEN
120.3
HIGH
121.2
LOW
120
CLOSE
120.25
% CNG
-0.21
VOLUME
6199
OI
3806
RE CNG
-0.25

INTRADAY LEVELS

P.P. 120.5
Brazilian primary aluminum production fell to 120,500 metric tons in March, down 8.5% on the same
month a year ago, according to the Brazilian aluminum producers' association, or Abal. Signs that SUP 1 RES 1
demand may be picking up also boosted aluminium to 2-1/2-year highs on LME. Aluminium has 119.8 121.0
touched a low of Rs 120 a kg after opening at Rs 120.3, and last traded at Rs120.25.For today SUP 2 RES 2
market is looking for the support at 119.8, a break below could see a test of 119.3 and where as
119.3 121.7
resistance is now likely to be seen at 121, a move above could see prices testing 121.7.
SUP 3 RES 3
118.6 122.2

OPEN
MCX NAT.GAS FUTURE

190
HIGH
193.1
LOW
189.6
CLOSE
191.7
% CNG
1.51
VOLUME
24525
OI
8027
RE CNG
2.9

INTRADAY LEVELS
Natural Gas yesterday we have seen that market has moved 1.51% amid indications of increased
demand as forecasts showed warmer-than-normal weather in the southern U.S. next week. The
P.P. 191.5
warm weather will spread along the U.S. East Coast into New York and New England by the end of
the month, CWG forecasters said in a report published earlier in the day. The report was expected to SUP 1 RES 1
show that U.S. natural gas inventories increased by 53 billion cubic feet, after adding 28 billion cubic 189.8 193.3
feet in the preceding week. U.S. stockpiles rose by 75 billion cubic feet in the same week last year. SUP 2 RES 2
Market has opened at 190 & made a low of 189.6 versus the day high of 193.1. The total volume for
188.0 195.0
the day was at 24525 lots and the open interest was at 8027.Now support for the Natural Gas is
seen at 189.8 and below could see a test of 188. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 193.3, a SUP 3 RES 3
move above could see prices testing 195. 186.3 196.8

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 ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE

DAILY SPREAD IN GOLD - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN SILVER - MCX

MONTH RATE JUNE AUG OCT MONTH RATE MAY JULY SEPT
JUNE 21773 302 642 MAY 65644 908 1820
AUG 22075 340 JULY 66552 912
OCT 22415 SEPT 67464
Spread between Gold JUN & AUG contracts yesterday Spread between Silver MAY & JUL contracts yesterday
ended at 302, we have seen yesterday that the gold ended at 908, we have seen yesterday that the silver
market had traded with a negative node and settled - market had traded with a positive node and settled 1.6%
0.23% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 294 up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 855 - 908.
- 319.

DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX

MONTH RATE MAY JUNE JULY MONTH RATE APRIL JUNE
MAY 4951 52 94 APRIL 424.45 6.9
JUNE 5003 42 JUNE 431.35
JULY 5045
Spread between crude APR & MAY contracts yesterday Spread between copper APR & JUN contracts yesterday
SPREAD MARKET

ended at 52, we have seen yesterday that the crude ended at 6.9, we have seen yesterday that the copper
market had traded with a positive node and settled 1.7% market had traded with a positive node and settled
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 45 - 52. 1.43% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 6.75 -
7.7.

DAILY SPREAD IN ZINC - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN NICKEL - MCX

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY MONTH RATE APRIL MAY
APRIL 104.05 1.45 APRIL 1171.8 8.3
MAY 105.5 MAY 1180.1

Spread between zinc APR & MAY contracts yesterday
ended at 1.45, we have seen yesterday that the zinc
market had traded with a negative node and settled -
0.05% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 1 -
1.45.
Spread between nickel APR & MAY contracts yesterday
ended at 8.30, we have seen yesterday that the nickel
market had traded with a positive node and settled
2.55% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 8.20 -
14.6.

DAILY SPREAD IN NAT. GAS - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN MENTHOL - MCX

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY MONTH RATE APRIL MAY
APRIL 191.7 3.8 APRIL 1054.2 -29.4
MAY 195.5 MAY 1024.8

Spread between natural gas APR & MAY contracts
yesterday ended at 3.80, we have seen yesterday that the
natural gas market had traded with a positive node and
settled 1.51% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of
3.7 - 4.1.
Spread between menthol oil APR & MAY contracts
yesterday ended at -29.40, we have seen yesterday that
the menthol oil market had traded with a positive node
and settled 0.32% up. Spread yesterday traded in the
range of -38.5 to -27.4.

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 DAY TIME CURRENCY DATA Forecast Previous
ECONOMICAL

1:30pm EUR German Ifo Business Climate 110.6 111.1

6:00pm USD Unemployment Claims 394K 412K
6:30pm EUR Belgium NBB Business Climate 5.9 6.2
DATA

7:30pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 37.1 43.4

7:30pm USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.003 0.008
7:30pm USD OFHEO HPI m/m 0.002 -0.003
Thu 8:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 53B 28B
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

According Maharashtra agriculture department estimates, soyabean is no longer the prime favourite in India's second
largest producer as farmers shift to cotton. That could be a setback for India's attempts to become more self-
sufficient in cooking oil, which is the second largest import item after crude oil. "Due to good price realisation for
cotton this year, area conversion from soya to cotton is most likely to happen. It is too early to predict numbers but
we think it can be even more than 2 to 3 lakh hectare in Maharashtra," said Ruchi Soya Industries vice president P
Kumar. Though soyabean prices are good enough, cotton farmers got historic high prices for their produce in the
current season. "The state government is likely to keep to the target of kharif oilseeds at 29.28 lakh ha as against
34.82 lakh ha last year. The actual area under soyabean in Maharashtra in 2010-11 kharif was 30.84 lakh ha, less by
about 4 lakh ha than the targetted area," said the official of on condition of anonymity. But the Soyabean Processors
Association of India (SOPA) estimates that the overall area under soyabean cultivation is likely to remain stable.
SOPA spokesperson Rajesh Agarwal said, "It is true that the area under soyabean may decline by about two to three
NEWS YOU CAN USE

lakh ha in Maharashtra. Yet, the all-India area under soyabean is likely to remain the same as some new area is
expected to come under soyabean cultivation in the southern states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh."
The poultry industry in the southern states is the main consumer of soyabean. The soya industry, already facing the
problem of 50% excess capacity, is now banking on good monsoon for better yields and better production. The total

Farmers in southern India may prefer to hedge their risk arising out of unseasonal or extended monsoon by
increasing chilli acreage in the coming kharif season. Chilli prices have almost doubled in a year. An official from the
Spices Board confirmed that the acreage under chilli may increase 10-15 per cent when sowing for the kharif begins.
While of late cotton has been preferred in the south, with more and more farmers opting for it, last kharif season’s
late rain highlighted the risk of sowing crops like cotton and tobacco. Chilli emerged as a better crop, giving good
returns. Cotton was preferred because of the better yield with use of Bt seeds. But chilli would be preferred over
cotton and tobacco as it can be grown in a nursery initially and later transplanted to the farm, while cotton and
tobacco have to be grown directly. This makes cotton and tobacco riskier compared to chilli. This year, production of
chilli has fallen not due to lower acreage but due to lower transplantation, as plants were kept in the nursery due to
heavy rain which continued till December.

Indian cash rates dropped on Wednesday on lower demand for funds from banks as cash conditions in the banking
system eased due to government spending since the start of the fiscal year in April. India's federal government had
outstanding loans of 370.38 billion rupees from the central bank in the week ended April 8 via the WMA suggesting
the government has been spending over the last few weeks. The one-day inter-bank cash rate was at 6.10/20
percent, down from its previous close of 6.50/60 percent. Cash rates are likely to remain around current levels on
Thursday, the last working day this week, the dealer said, adding it could inch up on Monday when banks start
borrowing for the new reporting fortnight beginning Saturday.

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