Automobiles: PIT STOP - Monthly update – February 2011

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Email: bhushan.gajaria@idfc.com
(Dir) +91-22-6622 2562
Bhushan Gajaria
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Industry – CV sales impacted
Domestic sales Exports Total sales
Jan-11 Jan-10 Growth (%) Jan-11 Jan-10 Growth (%) Jan-11 Jan-10 Growth (%)
Motorcycles 776,051 642,419 20.8 129,529 101,026 28.2 905,580 743,445 21.8
Scooters & Mopeds 246,221 195,234 26.1 5,932 3,369 76.1 252,153 198,603 27.0
Passenger Cars 189,008 153,845 22.9 43,276 36,267 19.3 232,284 190,112 22.2
UV + MPV 46,513 40,703 14.3 523 417 25.4 47,036 41,120 14.4
MHCV 31,242 28,099 11.2 2,402 1,741 38.0 33,644 29,840 12.7
LCV 32,815 29,925 9.7 4,023 2,579 56.0 36,838 32,504 13.3
3 Wheelers 49,082 39,558 24.1 25,115 19,842 26.6 74,197 59,400 24.9
Total 1,370,932 1,129,783 21.3 210,800 165,241 27.6 1,581,732 1,295,024 22.1

•• Overall
Overalldomestic
domesticindustry
industrygrowth
growthimproves
improves(18.7%
(18.7%growth
growthininJan)
Jan)as
aspassenger
passengercars
carscontinue
continue
totogrow
growatatover
over20%
20%and
andgrowth
growthimproves
improvesininmotorcycle
motorcyclesegment
segment(15%(15%ininJan)
Jan)

•• OnOnaam-o-m
m-o-mbasis,
basis,volumes
volumesare
areup
upby
by3.6%,
3.6%,with
withMHCV
MHCVvolumes
volumeshigher
higherby
by12.7%
12.7%

•• Commercial
CommercialVehicle
Vehiclegrowth
growthremains
remainssubdued
subduedasaspassenger
passengervehicles
vehiclesdecline
declinebyby~20%
~20%

•• MHCV
MHCVGoods
Goodscarriers
carriersgrow
growby
by18%,
18%,while
whileLCV
LCVgoods
goodsgrow
growbyby13.5%
13.5%

•• Every
Everysegment,
segment,barring
barringscooters
scootersand
and3-Wheelers,
3-Wheelers,respective
respectivecategory
categoryleader
leaderloses
losesshare
share––
Marutiloses
Maruti losesthe
theleast
leastininPassenger
PassengerCars;
Cars;Tata
TataMotors
Motorsloses
losesthe
themost
mostininCommercial
CommercialVehicles
Vehicles

2
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What made headlines?
Corporate action
• Hero Group to acquire Honda’s 26% in Hero Honda for Rs740/share
• No news was good news in Budget – No change in excise duty structure allayed the biggest
fear for Indian Auto industry
• Audi to double capacity at Aurangabad facility to 9000 by working an additional shift
• Natural rubber prices remained in narrow range of Rs225-235/kg in February, before falling to
Rs190/kg now

New launches
• Maruti launches the diesel version of SX4
• Bajaj Auto launches Discover 100cc
• General Motors launches LPG version of Chevrolet Beat

International news
• UK new car registration drops by 7.7% in Feb 11 as against 11.5% in Jan 2011. However, JLR
sales down 18%
• US Light Vehicle market volumes up by 27%. JLR volumes up by 16% to 3247 units
• Passenger car growth in China slows down materially to 2.57% in Feb 2011
• Ssangyong reports 44% growth in volumes to 6,772 units

3
 Motorcycles – Volumes grow 4.2% over Jan 11
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Domestic sales Mkt share (%) Exports Total sales
Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%) Feb-11 Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%) Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%)
Hero Honda Feb-11 429,928 349,746 22.9 55.4 7,198 9,149 (21.3) 437,126 358,895 21.8
YTD 4,457,670 3,912,301 13.9 54.5 105,421 83,253 26.6 4,563,091 3,995,554 14.2
Bajaj Auto Feb-11 205,145 175,725 16.7 26.4 81,512 58,898 38.4 286,657 234,623 22.2
YTD 2,194,522 1,586,984 38.3 26.8 918,129 675,033 36.0 3,112,651 2,262,017 37.6
Honda Motors Feb-11 54,015 45,326 19.2 7.0 11,917 6,360 87.4 65,932 51,686 27.6
YTD 600,902 392,867 53.0 7.3 81,748 61,338 33.3 682,650 454,205 50.3
TVS Motors Feb-11 52,650 46,047 14.3 6.8 18,812 17,347 8.4 71,462 63,394 12.7
YTD 574,570 446,075 28.8 7.0 182,619 130,606 39.8 757,189 576,681 31.3
Others Feb-11 34,313 25,575 34.2 4.4 10,090 9,272 8.8 44,403 34,847 27.4
YTD 350,485 294,533 19.0 4.3 87,329 59,387 47.1 437,814 353,920 23.7
Total Feb-11 776,051 642,419 20.8 100.0 129,529 101,026 28.2 905,580 743,445 21.8
YTD 8,178,149 6,632,760 23.3 100.0 1,375,246 1,009,617 36.2 9,553,395 7,642,377 25.0

Motorcycles: Pre purchase in anticipation of excise increase

Volumes (LHS) % Grow th (RHS)

•• Gainers
Gainers––Bajaj
BajajAuto
Auto(70bp
(70bpm-o-m),
m-o-m),
1,000,000 50

750,000
40
HondaMotors
Honda Motors(50bp)
(50bp)
30
500,000
20
•• Losers
Losers––Hero
HeroHonda
Honda(120bp)
(120bp)
250,000
10 •• Bajaj
BajajAuto
Autoreturns
returnstotomonthly
monthlyvolume
volumeofof
0 0
200,000+after
200,000+ after33months
months
Jun-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10

4
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Motorcycles <125cc
Domestic sales Mkt share (%) Exports Total sales
Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%) Feb-11 Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%) Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%)
Hero Honda Feb-11 395,265 326,034 21.2 72.8 6,298 8,457 (25.5) 401,563 334,491 20.1
YTD 4,154,191 3,698,558 12.3 70.9 93,732 75,234 24.6 4,247,923 3,773,792 12.6
Bajaj Auto Feb-11 95,951 100,046 (4.1) 17.7 58,436 43,316 34.9 154,387 143,362 7.7
YTD 1,049,932 824,991 27.3 17.9 601,207 497,904 20.7 1,651,139 1,322,895 24.8
Honda Motors Feb-11 11,809 7,474 58.0 2.2 4,550 3 151,566.7 16,359 7,477 118.8
YTD 153,279 8,161 1,778.2 2.6 24,547 22 111,477.3 177,826 8,183 2,073.1
TVS Motors Feb-11 35,651 34,685 2.8 6.6 11,146 9,379 18.8 46,797 44,064 6.2
YTD 432,510 323,021 33.9 7.4 95,486 81,439 17.2 527,996 404,460 30.5
Others Feb-11 4,037.00 4,724 (14.5) 0.7 864.00 1,852.00 (53.3) 4,901 6,576 (25.5)
YTD 68,188 57,982 17.6 1.2 8,248.00 7,499.00 10.0 76,436 65,481 16.7
Total Feb-11 542,713 472,963 14.7 100.0 81,294 63,007 29.0 624,007 535,970 16.4
YTD 5,858,100 4,912,713 19.2 100.0 823,220 662,098 24.3 6,681,320 5,574,811 19.8

Hero Honda drives growth

•• Bajaj
Bajajgains
gains60bp
60bpm-o-m,
m-o-m,though
thoughdeclines
declines
yoy – launches Discover 100cc
yoy – launches Discover 100cc 700,000
Volumes (LHS) % Grow th (RHS)
40

•• TVS
TVSMotors
Motorsgains
gains40bp
40bp––likely
likely 525,000 30
improvement
improvementininJive
Jivevolumes
volumes
•• Yamaha
Yamaha––second
secondconsecutive
consecutivemonth
monthofof
350,000 20

decline;
decline;volumes
volumesdown
down15%yoy
15%yoy
175,000 10

•• Competition
Competitionincreasing
increasing––Honda
Hondaand and 0
May-10
0

Jun-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10
Suzuki
Suzukitotolaunch
launch100cc
100ccbikes
bikesininnext
next11yryr

5
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Motorcycles – 125-250cc
Domestic sales Mkt share (%) Exports Total sales
Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%) Feb-11 Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%) Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%)
Hero Honda Feb-11 34,663 23,712 46.2 15.2 900 692 30.1 35,563 24,404 45.7
YTD 303,479 213,743 42.0 13.4 11,689 8,019 45.8 315,168 221,762 42.1
Bajaj Auto Feb-11 109,194 75,679 44.3 47.9 23,076 15,582 48.1 132,270 91,261 44.9
YTD 1,144,590 761,993 50.2 50.4 316,922 177,129 78.9 1,461,512 939,122 55.6
Honda Motors Feb-11 42,206 37,852 11.5 18.5 7,367 6,357 15.9 49,573 44,209 12.1
YTD 447,611 384,696 16.4 19.7 57,201 61,316 (6.7) 504,812 446,012 13.2
TVS Motors Feb-11 16,999 11,362 49.6 7.5 7,666 7,968 (3.8) 24,665 19,330 27.6
YTD 142,060 123,054 15.4 6.3 87,133 49,167 77.2 229,193 172,221 33.1
Others Feb-11 25,004 17,174 45.6 11.0 8,930 7,005 27.5 33,934 24,179 40.3
YTD 233,732 190,801 22.5 10.3 76,885 49,919 54.0 310,617 240,720 29.0
Total Feb-11 228,066 165,779 37.6 100.0 47,939 37,604 27.5 276,005 203,383 35.7
YTD 2,271,472 1,674,287 35.7 100.0 549,830 345,550 59.1 2,821,302 2,019,837 39.7

125-200cc segment continues to outpace

Volumes (LHS) % Grow th (RHS)
250,000 80

•• Bajaj
BajajAuto
Autostrengthens
strengthensits
itsleadership
leadership––
187,500 60
gains60bp
gains 60bpm-o-m
m-o-m
125,000 40

62,500 20 •• Honda
HondaMotors
Motorsgains
gains90bp,
90bp,while
whileTVS
TVS

0 0
Motorsloses
Motors loses70bp
70bp
Jun-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10

6
 Passenger Cars – Toyota clocks 2% share
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Domestic sales Mkt share (%) Exports Total sales
Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%) Feb-11 Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%) Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%)
Maruti Suzuki Feb-11 87,851 73,812 19.0 46.5 9,911 11,760 (15.7) 97,762 85,572 14.2
YTD 871,059 697,555 24.9 48.7 124,643 130,713 (4.6) 995,702 828,268 20.2
Hyundai Motors Feb-11 32,503 31,000 4.8 17.2 19,378 23,616 (17.9) 51,881 54,616 (5.0)
YTD 327,203 283,466 15.4 18.3 209,339 262,124 (20.1) 536,542 545,590 (1.7)
Tata Motors Feb-11 27,272 22,980 18.7 14.4 238 627 (62.0) 27,510 23,607 16.5
YTD 233,361 177,534 31.4 13.0 6,786 5,308 27.8 240,147 182,842 31.3
Ford Feb-11 8,957 2,875 211.5 4.7 1,433 126 1,037.3 10,390 3,001 246.2
YTD 85,241 25,261 237.4 4.8 10,577 1,383 664.8 95,818 26,644 259.6
General Motors Feb-11 7,596 9,449 (19.6) 4.0 20 49 (59.2) 7,616 9,498 (19.8)
YTD 79,403 61,172 29.8 4.4 373 453 (17.7) 79,776 61,625 29.5
Others Feb-11 24,829 13,729 80.9 13.1 12,296 89 13,715.7 37,125 13,818 168.7
YTD 192,524 126,766 51.9 10.8 45,091 2,018 2,134.4 237,615 128,784 84.5
Total Feb-11 189,008 153,845 22.9 100.0 43,276 36,267 19.3 232,284 190,112 22.2
YTD 1,788,791 1,371,754 30.4 100.0 396,809 401,999 (1.3) 2,185,600 1,773,753 23.2

No signs of slowdown Catergory-wise growth and contribution

Volumes (LHS) % Grow th (RHS) % growth % of total market
200,000 45
A1: Mini 50.7 5.8
160,000 36
A2: Compact 21.6 71.2
120,000 27
A3: Mid-size 24.2 19.7
80,000 18
A4: Executive 5.6 2.5
40,000 9
A5: Premium 5.5 0.7
0 0
A6: Luxury 15.9 0.1
Jun-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10

Total 22.9 100.0

7
 Passenger Cars – Compact cars (A2)
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Domestic sales Mkt share (%) Exports Total sales
Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%) Feb-11 Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%) Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%)
Maruti Suzuki Feb-11 72,090 60,380 19.4 53.6 9,166 11,713 (21.7) 81,256 72,093 12.7
YTD 730,092 578,427 26.2 55.7 112,110 125,636 (10.8) 842,202 704,063 19.6
Hyundai Motors Feb-11 30,009 28,198 6.4 22.3 17,158 22,317 (23.1) 47,167 50,515 (6.6)
YTD 293,642 255,360 15.0 22.4 189,628 244,698 (22.5) 483,270 500,058 (3.4)
Tata Motors Feb-11 10,044 11,502 (12.7) 7.5 194 610 (68.2) 10,238 12,112 (15.5)
YTD 90,908 102,797 (11.6) 6.9 5,390 4,424 21.8 96,298 107,221 (10.2)
Ford Feb-11 7,883 106 - 5.9 1,433 - - 9,316 106 -
YTD 69,190 615 - 5.3 9,539 - - 78,729 615 -
General Motors Feb-11 6,299 8,215 (23.3) 4.7 10 39 (74.4) 6,309 8,254 (23.6)
YTD 65,614 52,827 24.2 5.0 239 369 (35.2) 65,853 53,196 23.8
Others Feb-11 8,284 2,334 254.9 6.2 12,278 54 - 20,562 2,388 761.1
YTD 60,296 25,422 137.2 4.6 42,987 691 - 103,283 26,113 295.5
Total Feb-11 134,609 110,735 21.6 100.0 40,239 34,733 15.9 174,848 145,468 20.2
YTD 1,309,742 1,015,448 29.0 100.0 359,893 375,818 (4.2) 1,669,635 1,391,266 20.0

New launches gaining market share

Volumes (LHS) % Grow th (RHS)
160,000 50
•• Hyundai
Hyundairegains
regainssome
somelost
lostground
ground––
200bp
200bpm-o-m
m-o-mincrease
increaseininmarket
marketshare
120,000 40
share
•• Maruti
Marutifurther
furtherloses
loses60bp
60bp
80,000 30

•• Volkswagen
Volkswagenand
andNissan
Nissangains
gains20bp
20bpeach
each
40,000 20

toto2.5%
2.5%and
and1.5%
1.5%respectively
respectively 0 Jun-10 10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11
Sep-10
8 Aug-10
 Passenger Cars – Mid-sized cars (A3)
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Domestic sales Mkt share (%) Exports Total sales
Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%) Feb-11 Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%) Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%)
Maruti Suzuki Feb-11 13,024 10,254 27.0 35.0 70 42 66.7 13,094 10,296 27.2
YTD 117,362 88,862 32.1 35.5 669 465 43.9 118,031 89,327 32.1
Tata Motors Feb-11 8,966 7,373 21.6 24.1 44 17 158.8 9,010 7,390 21.9
YTD 80,728 49,097 64.4 24.4 1,396 884 57.9 82,124 49,981 64.3
Honda Siel Feb-11 3,668 5,076 (27.7) 9.9 8 6 33.3 3,676 5,082 (27.7)
YTD 43,858 40,690 7.8 13.3 54 38 42.1 43,912 40,728 7.8
Hyundai Motors Feb-11 2,465 2,752 (10.4) 6.6 2,220 1,299 70.9 4,685 4,051 15.7
YTD 33,317 27,710 20.2 10.1 19,711 17,426 13.1 53,028 45,136 17.5
Ford Feb-11 1,074 2,769 (61.2) 2.9 - 126 (100.0) 1,074 2,895 (62.9)
YTD 16,051 24,646 (34.9) 4.9 1,038 1,383 (24.9) 17,089 26,029 (34.3)
Others Feb-11 7,998 1,713 366.9 21.5 8 10 (20.0) 8,006 1,723 364.7
YTD 38,942 16,361 138.0 11.8 2,034 1,082 88.0 40,976 17,443 134.9
Total Feb-11 37,195 29,937 24.2 100.0 2,350 1,500 56.7 39,545 31,437 25.8
YTD 330,258 247,366 33.5 100.0 24,902 21,278 17.0 355,160 268,644 32.2

Outpaces compact segment

Volumes (LHS) % Grow th (RHS)
40,000 60

•• Maruti
Marutiregains
regainsincremental
incremental130bp
130bp
•• Volkswagen
Volkswageninching
inchingback
backtoto~10%
~10%mark
mark
30,000 45

•• Toyota
ToyotaEtios
Etiossells
sells2786
2786units
units(7.5%)
(7.5%)
20,000 30

•• Honda
Hondaand
andHyiundai
Hyiundailose
losethe
themost
most––
10,000 15

0 0 440bpand
440bp and240bp
240bprespectively
respectively
Jun-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10

9
 Utility Vehicles – Premium SUVs gain
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Domestic sales Mkt share (%) Exports Total sales
Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%) Feb-11 Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%) Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%)
Mahindra Feb-11 14,381 12,801 12.3 51.0 187 249 (24.9) 14,568 13,050 11.6
YTD 153,864 136,380 12.8 52.6 2,465 1,730 42.5 156,329 138,110 13.2
Toyota Feb-11 5,517 5,116 7.8 19.6 - - - 5,517 5,116 7.8
YTD 59,414 47,912 24.0 20.3 - - - 59,414 47,912 24.0
Tata Motors Feb-11 4,544 4,133 9.9 16.1 22 43 (48.8) 4,566 4,176 9.3
YTD 39,264 31,478 24.7 13.4 728 552 31.9 39,992 32,030 24.9
General Motors Feb-11 1,687 1,613 4.6 6.0 - - -! 1,687 1,613 4.6
YTD 18,448 14,620 26.2 6.3 5 7 (28.6) 18,453 14,627 26.2
Others Feb-11 2,076 1,552 33.8 7.4 59 3 1,866.7 2,135 1,555 37.3
YTD 21,322 14,008 52.2 7.3 237 114 107.9 21,559 14,122 52.7
Total Feb-11 28,205 25,215 11.9 100.0 268 295 (9.2) 28,473 25,510 11.6
YTD 292,312 244,398 19.6 100.0 3,435 2,403 42.9 295,747 246,801 19.8

Growth moderates
Volumes (LHS) % Grow th (RHS)
32,000 60

•• M&M
M&Mlost
lost200bp
200bpand
andToyota
Toyotalost
lost100bp
100bp
•• Tata
TataMotors
Motorsgained
gained220bp
220bpand
andGMGM
24,000 45

16,000 30 gained30bp
gained 30bp
8,000 15
•• BMW
BMWmakes
makessmart
smartgains
gains––up
up40bp
40bptoto
0 0
0.5%
0.5%
Jun-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10

10
 MHCV – impact of decline in passenger vehicles
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Domestic sales Mkt share (%) Exports Total sales
Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%) Feb-11 Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%) Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%)
Tata Motors Feb-11 17,632 17,441 1.1 56.4 1,488 972 53.1 19,120 18,413 3.8
YTD 168,789 134,290 25.7 59.8 15,764 11,358 38.8 184,553 145,648 26.7
Ashok Leyland Feb-11 8,954 6,985 28.2 28.7 783 730 7.3 9,737 7,715 26.2
YTD 71,905 47,916 50.1 25.5 9,314 4,938 88.6 81,219 52,854 53.7
Eicher Motors Feb-11 2,891 2,388 21.1 9.3 125 4 3,025.0 3,016 2,392 26.1
YTD 26,642 18,208 46.3 9.4 1,308 1,501 (12.9) 27,950 19,709 41.8
Others Feb-11 1,765 1,285 37.4 5.6 6 35 (82.9) 1,771 1,320 34.2
YTD 14,947 10,020 49.2 5.3 200 246 (18.7) 15,147 10,266 47.5
Total Feb-11 31,242 28,099 11.2 100.0 2,402 1,741 38.0 33,644 29,840 12.7
YTD 282,283 210,434 34.1 100.0 26,586 18,043 47.3 308,869 228,477 35.2

CV sales – passenger segment drags performance

•• Passenger
Passengercarriers
carriersdecline
declineby
by23%,
23%, 32,000
Volumes (LHS) % Grow th (RHS)
80
goods
goods carriers growth improvestoto18%
carriers growth improves 18% 24,000 60
•• Tata
TataMotors
Motorsloses
loses250bp
250bpininpassenger
passenger
segment
segmentand
and240bp
240bpiningoods
goods
16,000 40

•• Ashok
AshokLeyland
Leylandgains
gains500bp
500bpiningoods
goods
8,000 20

carriers, loses 230bp in passenger

carriers, loses 230bp in passenger 0 0
Jun-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10
11
 MHCV – Goods carriers
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•• 18%
18%volume
volumegrowth
growthininFeb
Feb11
11asasagainst
against12%
12%ininJan
Jan1111allays
allaysthe
themacro
macrofear
fear

•• Share
Shareofof25tn+
25tn+touches
touches30%30% - -up
up240bp
240bpm-o-m
m-o-m

•• Ashok
AshokLeyland
Leylandgains
gains510bp
510bptoto26.4%
26.4%atatthe
thecost
costofofTata
TataMotors
Motors(340bp
(340bptoto58.5%)
58.5%)and
andEicher
Eicher
(180bptoto9.8%)
(180bp 9.8%)

•• Mahindra
Mahindrasells
sells180
180units
unitstotoretain
retainits
its0.7%
0.7%market
marketshare
share

Goods carriers – Allays macro concerns 25tn+ touches 30% share

Volumes (LHS) % Grow th (RHS) <25 TONNES 25+ TONNES
28,000 80 100%

21,000 60 75%

14,000 40
50%

7,000 20
25%

0 0
Jun-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10

0%
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 YTDFY11

12
 LCV – Passenger declines, goods slows down
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Domestic sales Mkt share (%) Exports Total sales
Growth
Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%) Feb-11 Feb-11 Feb-10 (%) Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%)
Tata Motors Feb-11 19,157 16,816 13.9 58.4 2,667 1,595 67.2 21,824 18,411 18.5
YTD 179,755 150,554 19.4 56.8 28,596 12,689 125.4 208,351 163,243 27.6
Mahindra Feb-11 9,500 9,601 (1.1) 29.0 1,057 861 22.8 10,557 10,462 0.9
YTD 92,768 75,309 23.2 29.3 10,293 6,497 58.4 103,061 81,806 26.0
Force Motors Feb-11 1,294 1,557 (16.9) 3.9 91 50 82.0 1,385 1,607 (13.8)
YTD 14,561 9,925 46.7 4.6 248 213 16.4 14,809 10,138 46.1
Others Feb-11 2,864 1,951 46.8 8.7 208 73 184.9 3,072 2,024 51.8
YTD 29,315 19,199 52.7 9.3 2,095 1,799 16.5 31,410 20,998 49.6
Total Feb-11 32,815 29,925 9.7 100.0 4,023 2,579 56.0 36,838 32,504 13.3
YTD 316,399 254,987 24.1 100.0 41,232 21,198 94.5 357,631 276,185 29.5

In single digit after a long time

Volumes (LHS) % Grow th (RHS)

•• Passenger
Passengercarriers
carriersdecline
declineby
by21%
21%asas
36,000 45

28,800 36 marketleader
market leader––Tata
TataMotors
Motorswitnesses
witnesses
21,600 27 40%decline
40% decline
•• Goods
Goodscarriers
carriersgrowth
growthslows
slowsdown
downtoto
14,400 18

7,200 9 13.5%
13.5%
•• Tata
TataMotors
Motorsgrows
growsby
by21.5%
21.5%
0 0
Jun-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10

13
 LCV – Goods carriers
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•• Less
Lessthan
than3.5
3.5tonnes
tonnesgrows
growsfaster
fasteratat18.5%,
18.5%,5-7.5
5-7.5tonnes
tonneswitnesses
witnesses20%
20%decline
decline

•• Share
Shareofof<3.5tonnes
<3.5tonnesfurther
furtherup
upbyby60bp
60bptoto86.2%
86.2%

•• M&M
M&Mgives
givesaway
awaythe
thegains
gainsofofJan
Jan2011
2011––market
marketshare
shareback
backtoto33%
33%

•• Tata
TataMotors
Motorsgains
gains90bp
90bptoto59.5%
59.5%as
asititgains
gains200bp
200bpininthethefastest
fastestgrowing
growingsegment
segment

•• Slowdown
Slowdowniningoods
goodsvehicle
vehiclesegment
segment––isisthe
thetier
tierIIIImarket
marketslowing
slowingdown?
down?

Growth slowing – a concern <5 tonnes grows by 18%

Volumes (LHS) % Grow th (RHS) <3.5 TONNES 3.5-5 TONNES 5-7.5 TONNES
35,000 50 100%

28,000 40
75%
21,000 30

14,000 20 50%

7,000 10
25%

0 0
May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10

0%
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 YTD FY11E

14
 3-Wheelers – Passenger carriers grow by 31%
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Domestic sales Mkt share (%) Exports Total sales
Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%) Feb-11 Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%) Feb-11 Feb-10 Growth (%)
Bajaj Auto Feb-11 19,296 15,224 26.7 39.3 20,921 18,744 11.6 40,217 33,968 18.4
YTD 187,830 161,753 16.1 39.1 215,705 149,839 44.0 403,535 311,592 29.5
Piaggio Feb-11 18,742 16,283 15.1 38.2 1,649 486 239.3 20,391 16,769 21.6
YTD 184,947 164,212 12.6 38.5 16,654 4,454 273.9 201,601 168,666 19.5
Mahindra Feb-11 5,725 3,641 57.2 11.7 167 204 (18.1) 5,892 3,845 53.2
YTD 56,373 40,066 40.7 11.7 2,346 586 300.3 58,719 40,652 44.4
TVS Motors Feb-11 1,850 1,756 5.4 3.8 2,362 336 603.0 4,212 2,092 101.3
YTD 20,847 11,340 83.8 4.3 14,586 1,198 1,117.5 35,433 12,538 182.6
Others Feb-11 3,469 2,654 30.7 7.1 16 72 (77.8) 3,485 2,726 27.8
YTD 29,878 22,660 31.9 6.2 322 626 (48.6) 30,200 23,286 29.7
Total Feb-11 49,082 39,558 24.1 100.0 25,115 19,842 26.6 74,197 59,400 24.9
YTD 479,875 400,031 20.0 100.0 249,613 156,703 59.3 729,488 556,734 31.0

Passenger segment grows by 31%, goods by 3%

Volumes (LHS) % Grow th (RHS)

•• Passenger
Passengervehicle
vehiclemarket
marketconsolidates
consolidates
35,000 45

28,000 36 further
further
•• Bajaj
BajajAuto
Autogains
gains130bp
130bptoto47.4%,
47.4%,
21,000 27

14,000 18 Piaggiogains
Piaggio gains60bp
60bptoto33.1%
33.1%
•• M&M
M&Mloses
loses150bp
150bpininpassenger
passengerand
and
7,000 9

0 0
60bpiningoods
60bp goodssegment
segment
Jun-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10

15
 Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-10
Adj. RFI (mom %)

Nov-09
Aug-09
May-09
Feb-09
Freight rates adjusted for diesel price

Nov-08
Aug-08
May-08
Adj. RFI (yoy %)

Feb-08
Nov-07
Aug-07
May-07
Feb-07
Nov-06
Aug-06
May-06
Feb-06
20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

% Change in RF
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180

170

160

150

140
Feb-11
Freight Rate Index

Aug-10
RFI (RHS)

Feb-10
Aug-09
Freight rate movement v/s diesel price

Feb-09
Aug-08
Adj. RFI (LHS)

Feb-08
Aug-07
Feb-07
Aug-06
Feb-06

60

55

50

45

40

16
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Domestic industry snapshot
(nos.) FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 YTD FY11
Passenger Cars 885,442 1,076,381 1,203,031 1,219,937 1,527,354 1,788,791
Utility Vehicles 194,577 220,213 243,634 225,295 272,666 292,312
MPV 66,366 83,091 100,865 106,607 150,256 193,449
PASSENGER VEHICLES 1,146,385.0 1,379,685.0 1,547,530.0 1,551,839.0 1,950,276.0 2,274,552.0
% yoy growth 20.4 12.2 0.3 25.7 29.9
MHCV - Passenger Carriers 28,126 28,696 38,708 34,835 43,074 42,112
MHCV - Goods Carriers 179,439 246,394 233,200 147,315 201,940 240,171
MHCV 207,565 275,090 271,908 182,150 245,014 282,283
% yoy growth 32.5 (1.2) (33.0) 34.5 34.1
LCV Passenger carriers 22,431 23,840 27,793 26,779 34,417 33,521
LCV Goods carriers 120,806 168,493 188,136 173,825 253,352 282,878
LCV 143,237 192,333 215,929 200,604 287,769 316,399
% yoy growth 34.3 12.3 (7.1) 43.5 24.1
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES 350,802 467,423 487,837 382,754 532,783 598,682
% yoy growth 33.2 4.4 (21.5) 39.2 28.6
3 Wheeler Passenger carrier 212,746 236,792 231,902 264,410 349,691 392,953
3 Wheelers Goods carrier 147,441 167,129 132,198 84,906 90,680 86,922
THREE WHEELERS 360,187 403,921 364,100 349,316 440,371 479,875
% yoy growth 12.1 (9.9) (4.1) 26.1 20.0
Scooters 908,159 940,617 1,049,569 1,145,818 1,462,573 1,882,664
Motorcycles 5,814,547 6,543,454 5,768,881 5,834,688 7,341,109 8,178,149
Mopeds 332,741 355,870 413,759 431,214 564,584 633,259
Electric Two Wheelers - 7,584 16,674 25,513 2,711 -
TWO WHEELERS 7,055,447 7,847,525 7,248,883 7,437,233 9,370,977 10,694,072
% yoy growth 11.2 (7.6) 2.6 26.0 26.5
TOTAL AUTO VOLUMES 8,912,821 10,098,554 9,648,350 9,721,142 12,294,407 14,047,181
% yoy growth 13.3 (4.5) 0.8 26.5 26.9

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