Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Econ 441
10/21/10
I. Introduction
Microcredit financing institutions bring a world of banking and financial services to the
poor in developing countries that would not otherwise be available. MFI’s make credit, savings,
insurance, and fund transfers available for low income citizens with the lofty ideal that this will
help to lower the inequality in income distribution among a country. The following paper
analyzes this question through multiple linear regression and economic theory. For the purpose
microcredit financing does make a difference on the level of income inequality or the GINI
coefficient. The only faulty assumptions of MFI’s I can deliberate on is the query on whether it’s
enough to make a substantial difference in a countries’ GDP, whether or not these institutions
reach out to enough of the population. Individually, MFI’s have been known to work but is there
substantial evidence that they make an impact on an entire society? I would assume that they do
by analyzing economic theory mainly based on the fact that the more businesses there are in
operation, the more people there are employed, and the more competitive the wages. But this
may be an idealistic slippery slope and what may actually be happening is a perpetuation of
poverty. The perpetuation occurs through MFI’s accruing funds for loans to poor individuals that
would possibly be better allocated toward expanding enterprises such that more jobs would be
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created. This is plausible due to the fact that most microenterprises which were started up
through microloans only create jobs for about three to four people on average and one would
assume that a medium size enterprise would stunt that number by the tens or even hundreds
financial services (financial deepening) will promote a stale economy to flourish. This is due to
the fact that when people have access to savings accounts composed of interest rates, they are
likely to save more and with less credit constraints people are led to higher productivity rates
through more investments. With access to insurance, your assets are protected and fund transfers
lead to safe fund mobility. All of this leads to business diversity which is imperative for
economic growth. The most important fact is that less credit constraints on low income people
leads to higher productivity, which should lead to less inequality by looking at the profit
maximizing model for wage. Comparing marginal product of labor to wage, you will find that as
people become more productive (due to access to financial services), their Marginal Product
increases, and thus, the wages the wealthy pay to the poor also increase, narrowing the income
gap.
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¹This graph is meant to be seen as a template and Pm has no meaning for our current
concern. (found on google.com; web images)
With analysis of the exogenous growth model, or Solow Model, we can see what affects
long run economic growth based on individual factors. In the short run, the model tells us that
subsidies can affect the steady state level of output and that the rate of growth as the economy
converges to the steady state is determined by the rate of capital accumulation (which is
determined by the savings rate and capital depreciation). Consequently, with access to a savings
account where one was not before, one would predict that savings rates would increase and thus,
capital accumulation. That which follows, in the long run, the model tells us that a country with a
higher savings rate will experience higher growth. The model assumes that there can only be
long term growth based on technological progress and labor force growth or else the growth line
converges to the steady state level where the growth rate is constant times the population growth.
It follows that microcredit financing leads to a higher employment rate due to the mass amount
of micro loans given to entrepreneurs to begin microenterprises. Hence, a larger labor force
should lead to growth in the long run. A higher loan rate leads to more innovation which in turn
will lead to technological advances. The following describes a situation where savings rate is
solution to development issues when in actuality, it might merely be implicit in nature that GDP
is just not the best measure of its success (or failure) due to the conclusions drawn from the
model. However, the model does not take into account entrepreneurship which is a very large
economic force and what microloans are based on; therefore, I think it would still be not only
Many MFI’s focus in on women and some will only strictly lend to women, mainly
because women have a much greater pay back rate. This allows women to enter the workforce,
educating them, and empowering them. The empowerment of women leads to increased decision
making at the community and household level which leads to more equality in things like
education. A more educated population leads to a more advanced and economically stable
society through higher wages. Men tend to invest more in physical capital whereas women tend
to invest more in human capital like education for their children. One study found that household
consumption increased by .40 percent per capita when women received the loan and men’s
consumption increased by only .23 percent (Using Microcredit, pg 3). When consumption is
In poor communities, having assets may be a much better savings method than actually
saving in a bank. This is where microcredit loans come in. The reasons for this are varied.
Beginning with the simple fact that most banks in cities are a far bus ride away from the more
rural areas, tax rates are especially high (some as much as 75%), poor people tend to lend from
family and friends and therefore if you have saved money, it is likely you will be asked to give it
away. On average, one is able to save about $.25 to the $1 in poor communities (Why
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Microcredit Works, pg1). Thus, it is much safer for a member of the above mentioned
community to invest their money which is why microfinance can be extremely valuable to a
Furthermore, microcredit financing is not a charity. It is not a onetime hand out with an
exorbitant group interest rate meant to make a profit off of either. MFI’s continue to lead
This is indeed a form of education and when a subset of a population is educated, so is the
greater population (due to being affected by those around them) and when a population is better
educated, they can advance as a society. I would say that education is the root of a strong
economy. When people are better educated, they can not only earn better wages, but they can
start making better choices regarding finance and the political economy leading to prosperity and
growth.
Other aspects of an economy that impact GDP are wide and varied. To narrow the list
down, I have come up with the most important variables which may affect a country’s GDP level
based off of theory. The first is a question of what type of political state the country is in. It’s
pretty much given that a state of political unrest can be entirely detrimental to a country and its
consumption or savings rate. If a citizen doesn’t trust their government, they are less likely to
save their money in a financial institution (including an MFI) and it has been seen that
consumption decreases. However, if the country is in a state of war, the economy is likely to be
booming because the government creates jobs and pours money into military and defense. More
government spending equates to a higher level of GDP by simply looking at the following
equation: GDP = C + I + G + net exports. Therefore, it highly depends on what form of unrest
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Private property rights are another very important aspect to an economy. With these
rights people are more likely to invest in things such as land. Property rights also create a sense
of independence and dignity. People are more likely to work hard to earn these types of rights
which will lead to things such as innovation. Private property rights include the right to
determine its use and rights to exchange or sell the item with a mutual agreement. “The
fundamental purpose of property rights, and their fundamental accomplishment, is that they
protected property rights replace competition by violence with competition by peaceful means
The government’s role in education can also greatly impact a country. A country whose
government funds and enforces that all children attend school until the age of eighteen versus a
country who only supports education up to age five will possess very different outcomes:
economically, socially, and politically. One would assume through theory that the economic rate
of return on education is very high for multiple reasons. The first reason the rate of return on
education for an entire society is high is that it makes the workforce more competitive and thus
increases wages. The second reason is that it leads to more technological innovation which will
lead to greater efficiency and subsequently, greater economic output. Third, a higher educated
population will be healthier through knowledge of good nutrition and greater access to health
care which means they will live longer lives which consequently means that the society will be
more productive with higher incomes over a greater amount of time. Lastly, it has been shown
that education and crime are negatively correlated which means that less people imprisoned
results in less money spent on police force and imprisonment, thus a gain to the social welfare.
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Another variable which may significantly impact GDP is the level of corruption in the
country. A country with high rates of corruption by government officials is less likely to have
trusting citizens. Less trust in one’s government has been shown to have an adverse effect on
savings, investment rates (which, as we can see by the equation of GDP, as stated previously),
and tax collection. Corruption means a country is experiencing things like: blackmail from the
police force, extortion, and tax evasion (which may be a circular affect and actually be caused by
I chose to analyze an equal number of six countries from six different regions including:
Africa, E. Asia and the Pacific, E. Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean,
the Middle East and N. Africa, and South Asia. I retrieved my data through the internet. The
quantity of microfinance loans was found on mixmarket.org and the GDP levels from the
worldbank.org. As for finding how many years MFI’s have been implemented in a particular
country, the sources are varied but primarily were found through a google.com search.
quantifying each countries gross loan portfolio. This is the best measure of microfinance because
it tells us how active the microfinance branches are in banking. If I were to just look at the
number of microfinance branches per country, my results would be off due to the fact that some
branches are smaller than others. The data that I found was all of the reported gross product
loans.
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A second independent variable of interest x 2 , is a categorical dummy variable quantifying
whether or not the country was in political turmoil or war torn for the duration of time that
microcredit financing was available. I gave each state of being a number: 0 meaning the country
was in a state of peace, 1 meaning there was some political unrest and insecurity, 2 meaning the
country was in a state of cross-country war, and 3 meaning the country was involved in a civil
war. I think this variable is extremely important to look at because whether a country is in war or
the type of unrest they are experiencing can greatly impact a society based off of economic
Third, the variable x 3is another dummy variable to describe if the country has individual
property laws or not. Property laws are the rights to hold land as your own personal asset and not
to be taken away by anybody including the government. Since I couldn’t find data on property
rights exclusively, I decided to look at the scores on gfmag.com regarding economic freedom
which encompasses property rights. A 0 would mean the government holds all rights to the
property or land that would otherwise be rightfully one’s own and a 100 means there is complete
economic freedom. Included in economic freedom is: property rights, regulatory efficiency, ten
levels of economic openness, and competitiveness. Afghanistan is omitted because there was not
enough reliable information to build data from. I would imagine that a 0 would have an adverse
A forth independent variable of interest, x 4 , is education. With this I decided to count the
average level of education in each country. I feel that this should have a substantial affect on
GDP due to economic theory as stated above. I feel that the intercept in the regression will be
fairly large to signal a large return on educational investment. However, because educational
policies change frequently in some countries (especially those in political unrest), we may not
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get an accurate picture just by looking at their average education and literacy rate today because
education has a somewhat lag effect. Meaning, although a strict education system may have been
implemented a year ago, a country will not reap the rewards for, say, fifteen years or so. With
this, I feel like it will be a benefit to look at the variables: “education” and “political state” as an
interaction term to see how they interact together since we know there is some correlation
between the two. I found data for the average years of schooling for adults over fifteen on
Corruption is the fifth independent variable, x 5, being another categorical dummy variable
based on the level of corruption. Zero being no corruption, or very little, all the way up to nine,
being the most corrupt. I feel it is very important to examine this variable because economic
theory suggests that corruption has an adverse affect on GDP. This is also an interaction term
with x 1, the level of political turmoil. This data was found on:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/gov_cor-government-corruption.
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Graphs and summary stats:
1000
0
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00
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Property Rights vs GDP Growth
80
70
60
Prop
50
Linear (Prop)
40
30
20
10
0
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12 Educ. vs GDP Growth
10
8
Educ
6 Linear (Educ)
4
2
0
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00
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Kurtosis 5.18587 Kurtosis 2.16011 Kurtosis 0.162973
Skewness -1.93796 Skewness -0.95335 Skewness -0.01689
Range 4 Range 11 Range 29.2
Minimum 4 Minimum 0 Minimum 40
Maximum 8 Maximum 11 Maximum 69.2
Sum 258 Sum 272 Sum 1931
Count 35 Count 35 Count 35
IV. Econometrics
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Correlation Matrix:
Gross
Loan
Portfolio
GDP 2 (millions) Politics Prop Educ Corrupt
GDP 2 1
Gross Loan Portfolio (millions) 0.288406 1
Politics -0.2242 -0.05825 1
Prop 0.016902 -0.11566 -0.24718 1
Educ 0.07104 -0.39699 -0.47777 0.436856 1
Corrupt -0.25046 0.02215 0.030913 -0.48642 -0.20206 1
This matrix tells us that the following are positively correlated with a change in GDP: gross loan
portfolio, property rights, and education. Politics is negatively correlated to a change in GDP
meaning the more corrupt a government was, the less positive change in GDP they saw. The
following are negatively correlated with Microfinance Gross Loan Portfolio: politics and
property rights. Politics and property rights have a weak negative correlation and education and
politics has a fairly strong negative correlation. Education and property rights have a positive
correlation, but corruption and property rights have a negative correlation. All these correlations
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.46841
R Square 0.219408
Adjusted R
Square 0.084823
Standard Error 311.7952
Observations 35
ANOVA
Significan
df SS MS F ce F
792438. 158487. 1.63025
Regression 5 1 6 9 0.183465
281927 97216.2
Residual 29 1 3
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361170
Total 34 9
^y = β^ 0+ β^ 1 x 1 + ^β 2 x 2+ ^β3 x 3+ ^β 4 x 4 :
From this equation, we can see that a one dollar increase in microfinance loans, all else
equal, will decrease GDP by approximately .0777%. This is a fairly insignificant number
which may show that MFL’s don’t have too much effect on GDP. Because I used
categorical variables for “Politics” and “Corruption,” we need to interpret those slope
Intercept Slope
No political unrest ^β 0= 1509.246 ^β 1+ β3 + β 4 + β5
Political unrest ^β 0 + ^β 2=1456.9261 ^β 1+ β3 + β 4 + β5
Cross-border war ^β 0 +2 β^ 2=1404.6242 ^β 1+ β3 + β 4 + β5
Civil war ^β 0 +3 ^β2 =1352.2863 ^β 1+ β3 + β 4 + β5
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This table makes more sense than just looking at the intercept for β 2 because as a
country becomes more politically unstable (like in the case of war), they see a smaller
Goodness-of-fit: R2=21.94 %
Adjusted R2=8.48 %
The x variables explain 21.94% of y without taking into account the number of degrees
of freedom. A better look at how the variables explain y is the adjusted R2 because it
takes into account the degrees of freedom (or number of variables we are testing).
8.48% of y is explained by all the x’s. This seems like a small number, however taking
into account how much goes into GDP, it’s fairly agreeable with economic theory.
To see if the regression had overall significance, I preformed an F-test using the critical
H A : At least one β 1 , β2 , β3 , β 4 , β5 ≠ 0
P−value=Significance of F=¿.1835
Significance level=.05
Therefore, we fail to reject Ho and conclude that y is not statistically significant in its
dependence on x.
For individual significance of each slope coefficient, I preformed a T-test for n-small
thereby using the t-table.
H 0 : β1 =0
H A : β1 ≠ 0
^β 1−0 .0777
T −stat : = =1.6603
S ^β .0468
1
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Critical Value:t α =2.045
,n−k−1
2
Therefore, we fail to reject H 0 and conclude that β 1 is not significantly different than zero at the 5%
level. These results suggest that GDP is not significantly related to Microcredit Finance. Furthermore, by
looking at the regression output we can conclude that no |t−stat| is greater than the critical value.
Therefore, none of the slope coefficients significantly explain y.
I also ran a regression including three interaction terms to see if that would change my
goodness-of-fit. I specifically wanted to view the interaction among microfinance loans and 3
other variables: corruption, property rights, and politics. Below are the results:
Regression Statistics
0.7070
Multiple R 21
0.4998
R Square 79
0.3459
Adjusted R Square 95
263.57
Standard Error 7
Observations 35
ANOVA
Significa
df SS MS F nce F
22567 3.248
Regression 8 1805416 7 421 0.010662
69472
Residual 26 1806293 .81
Total 34 3611709
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6.1464 0.215 0.830 64.690 - 64.6902
Educ 14 28.48113 807 823 -52.3974 22 52.3974 2
71.200 0.890 0.381 235.49 235.491
Corrupt 19 79.92647 821 195 -93.091 14 -93.091 4
- - -
0.0480 3.042 0.005 0.0155 -
Prop*GLP 2 0.015783 36 309 -0.08046 7 0.08046 -0.01557
- - -
0.4583 3.597 0.001 0.1964 -
Cor*GLP 6 0.127402 75 322 -0.72024 8 0.72024 -0.19648
- -
0.0319 0.810 0.425 0.0491 -
Pol*GLP 8 0.039453 51 004 -0.11307 2 0.11307 0.04912
Adding the interaction terms significantly affected the entire regression and the
adjusted R2increased a significant amount to 34.6%. It also brought allover significance
to the regression model because α > p−value , (.05>.0107 ¿, which means we reject H o
and conclude that one or more of the independent variables significantly explain y.
Furthermore, by analyzing the t-stat, we find that microfinance, or GLP, along with the
two interaction terms: corruption and politics with GLP significantly explain variation
in y. We conclude that the marginal effect of microfinance (GLP) on GDP is statistically
different for countries with corrupt governments as well as those with strong property
laws.
Another way to check whether the marginal effect of GLP on GDP differs among
countries with corruption, I checked the confidence interval (-.7202, -.1965) in which
does not contain zero. Thereby, rejecting H 0 and concluding that the marginal effect of
GLP on GDP does differ depending on the amount of corruption (which I already proved
by looking at the t-stat).
Interpreting the interaction slope coefficient GLP:
∂GDP ^ ^
= β1 + β 6 property + β^ 7 corruption+ β^ 8 political
∂ GLP
¿ 6.0297−.0481 ( ¿ ) −.4584 ( corr )−.0320( pol)
To estimate the slope coefficient for a given amount of property laws, corruption, and
politics, all I need to do is plug in the numbers into the above equation.
For: prop=55, corr=8, and pol=0
6.0297−.0481 ( 55 ) −.4584 ( 8 )−.0320(0)=-.283
To see the percentage change on GDP for each one unit increase of an independent
variable, I constructed a log-linear regression by taking the natural log of all the values
of GDP and running the regression again. The equation I received was:
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^
log GDP=6.0537+.0003 ( GLP )−.328 ( pol )−.0288 ( ¿ ) +.2353 ( educ )−.3084 (corr )
A one unit increase in microfinance will increase GDP by .0003%, an increase in political
unrest will decrease GDP by .328%, an increase in property rights will also decrease
GDP by .0288%, and increase in education will increase GDP by .2353%, and an increase
The only slope coefficient which doesn’t make much sense is an increase in property
V. Conclusion
The results show us that there were not any statistically significant agents affecting GDP
between the variables: microfinance, corruption, education, political state, and property
rights. However, once I added in the interaction terms into the regression, I found that
two of those terms and microfinance did significantly impact y. This seems to hold with
economic theory because there are so many different variables affecting GDP such that
these variables also interact in a sometimes large degree with each other; which when
taken into account (by multiplying the two terms as an extra variable), this can have a
magnifying effect on y.
I mainly set out to determine whether microfinance has an effect on GDP. The results
declare that there is a definite positive correlation, however weak, and therefore is not
statistically significant to GDP. Using the log-linear model, I found that a one unit
increase in GLP will increase GDP by .0003%, all else held constant. Furthermore, using
the interaction terms, I found GLP to have a direct relationship with both politics and
corruption signifying that when working together, the two terms significantly affect GDP.
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Subsequently, I feel that microfinance (GLP) alone does not have a great effect on GDP
but when working with other aspects of an economy, the converse is true.
Works Cited
Alchian, Albert, “Property Rights,” The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics, 2008, Liberty
2008, (portfolio.com)
Harper, Malcom, Book Review “Why Microfinance Doesn’t Work,” Microfinance Focus, June 7,
2010 (http://www.microfinancefocus.com/news)
Khandker, Shahidur, Using Microcredit to Advance Women, The World Bank, November 1998,
(http://www1.worldbank.org/prem/PREMNotes/premnote8.pdf)
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