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72nd Annual Meeting of the Aluminum Association Naples, Florida October 3 - 4, 2005
LONDON | SEATTLE | PHILADELPHIA | BEIJING | SYDNEY | RIO DE JANEIRO
31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X 0AD UK Tel. +44 20 7278 7788 Fax +44 20 7278 0003 PO Box 1269, Langley, WA 98260 USA Tel. +1 360 321 4707 Fax +1 360 3214709 PO Box 656, Kennett Square, PA 19348 USA Tel. +1 610 925 1860 Fax +1 610 925 1861
http://www.crustrategies.com
Structure of Presentation
Market Overview & Cycles Demand Supply & Costs
Carbon products Power market Alumina analysis
Summary Q&A
Snapshot
The issue: the aluminium world is split down the middle on how to react to changing input costs
Producers: are calling for a paradigm shift a quantum upward shift in long term pricing as cost pressures bite into margins
on the basis of present operating costs, capital charges and normal return on equity, investment in smelting/refining no longer attractive they argue in favour of shattering the glass ceiling, abandoning suggestions that long run costs are declining which exists from historical experience
Alternative: Cyclical nature of the cycle the bubble will burst, long run prices are in declinebut so are costs
The market is presently facing the longest period of high prices for alumina, along with strong carbon prices and high energy costs
$/tonne
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Ja nAp 0 1 r-0 Ju 1 l -0 O 1 ct Ja 01 nAp 0 2 r-0 Ju 2 lO 02 ct Ja 02 nAp 0 3 r-0 Ju 3 lO 03 ct Ja 03 nAp 04 r-0 Ju 4 lO 04 ct Ja 04 nAp 0 5 r-0 Ju 5 l -0 5
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(2004 $/t)
22000 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
Exponential Trend Line
What will be the future real price trend? 1900-2003 2%pa decline 1960-2003 1% pa decline CRU View: Next 25 years prices still declining but rate of that decline much slower 0.5% pa
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19 90
19 00 19 10 19 20 19 30 19 40 19 50 19 60 19 70 19 80 19 90 20 00
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20 00
Technological advances ie. Higher amperages, magnetic compensation, next generation technologies Capital costs keep falling weighted average capital cost for all projects $3100/t. But smelter capacity creep is preferred form of expansion Labour productivity improvements Price of electricity remained constant in nominal terms, therefore has fallen in real terms ie 1980s average $19 mills/kWh. (However, this has jumped to around $24 mills/kWh in 2004.) Falling alumina prices as most new capacity comes on in the form of expansions and capacity creep to existing low cost plants
Structure of Presentation
Market Overview & Cycles Demand Supply & Costs
Carbon products Power market Alumina analysis
Summary Q&A
20 kg/capita Al consumption
Taiwan
USA
China
15
Japan
10
UK
France
5
Brazil
China
which drives the rapid growth in Chinese primary aluminium demand to 2025
2003 demand 2025 demand CAGR
2.7% 5.2%
7.5%
1.1%
5.0%
Japan
China
100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0
5 202 3 202 1 202 9 201 7 201 5 201 3 201 1 201 9 200 7 200 5 200 3 200 1 200
Secondary demand Primary demand
Carmakers obligations to reduce weight, to comply with emissions and fuel consumption legislation, should favour aluminiums use in road transport applications Aluminium faces tough competition in construction, especially in developed markets
Packaging (principally beverage can stock) growth held back by consumer preferences for PET bottles
Industrialisation in developing markets supports rapid demand for aluminium in electrification programmes
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Negative risks
More frequent cyclical oil shortages enhance need for vehicle lightweighting Asian population embraces concept of supermarkets (selling packaged foods) over market produce Increasing urban density means more high-rise building, favouring lightweight materials Aluminium curtain walls, windows, doors used to refurbish post-war generation of steel-framed buildings
Alternative materials eg composites, magnesium meet the challenge Saturation of vehicle ownership in developed markets Beverages packaged in new formats, eg as fountain products to the home, not in cans or bottles Improved product quality substantially extends lifespans, delays replacement cycle Asian construction boom loses momentum; nothing to replace it
Packaging
Construction
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Structure of Presentation
Market Overview & Cycles Demand Supply & Costs
Carbon products Power market Alumina analysis
Summary Q&A
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Carbon Products
Calcined petcoke accounts for 80% input material cost of carbon products at smelters
Integral to reduction process, used to manufacture of carbon anodes and cathode blocks Structural tightness developed in market, supply is responding with new projects but too little so far Double crisis may be looming : Green Coke quality/availability Calcining coke capacity
Coal tar pitch accounts for 20% input cost of carbon products at smelters
Used as a binder in carbon anodes and cathode blocks. In past two years supply suffered from reduced output of met.coke coming from blast furnaces. Temporary reprieve in tar shortages due to met. coke crisis. Suppliers looked for alternative coal tar streams, from hybrids & petroleum products.
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500
Average CPC 2012: 327U$S/t
300 250
US$/t
400
US$/t
300
200 150
Average CTP 2004: 242U$S/t
50 0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
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Both pet.coke and coal tar pitch are ultimately by-products from other revenue streams ie. oil and steel
As an input prices into smelting, the aluminium market is not a key driver Therein lies a dilemma: Invest or die
Input prices of carbon products have risen recently, are they here to stay?
97
99
03
01
96
00
98
02
04
20
20
19
19
20
19
19
Change in stock
20
20
20
05
15
2,000
4,000
6,000
Power
Labour
Other materials
Alumina
-91.6
486.6
299.7
127.7
357.6
43.9
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
$/tonne
Power is by far the largest source of competitive advantage on the BOC curve
Alumina 38%
17
Nominal US mills/kWh 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 5
C an ad a
C IS
10.9 14
Af
ric Au a st ra la La si ti n a Am er ic M a id dl e W Ea es st te rn w or ld W or Ea ld w st id er e n Eu ro pe W es U SA te rn Eu ro pe
27.5
As C hi
ia na
32.4 39.2
18
25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15
US$/t
19 92
19 90
20 02
19 96
20 00
19 94
19 98
20 04
19
Western Australia Queensland Oman Qatar Iran Malaysia Brunei Venezuela Russia
Long term, domestic currency, inflation adjusted Long term, domestic currency, inflation adjusted Long term, US dollar, first 10 years flat price then inflation adjusted Long term, US dollar, first 10 years flat price then inflation adjusted Long term, US dollar, first 10 years flat price then inflation adjusted N/A Long term, US dollar, metal linked Long term commodity price linkage Short term, local currency 20 All understood to offer long term power contracts at or below US$22 mills/kWh
8 2 00 6 2 00
2 2 01 0 2 01
6 2 01 4 2 01
4 2 02 2 2 02
21
0 2 02 8 2 01
Investment in metal production seen as a way of diversifying countries revenue stream Project gas prices typically $0.75/mn BTU Equates to power price of $18.3/MWh All projects with the exception of the Oman & Qatar projects are based exclusively by Middle Eastern investors or governments. Oman project is 51% backed by Alcan. Qatar smelter project 49% Hydro On the whole, if the investment is not made in the Middle East, it will not be made at all
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Corporate operating cost schedules for Middle Eastern smelters in 2004 and 2009
COC for new MEast smelters
US$/tonne) US$/tonne)
2500
2004 2009
35 30
Qatar project
2000
25 20 15 10
1500
1000
500
Sohar project
5 0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
0
Cumulative production (million tonnes)
2000
4000
6000
Data: CRU Smelting Costs Report. Note: 2009 data CRU estimates
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China accounts for over 40% of new green and brownfield capacity to 2012
tonnes
2,000
tonnes
E. Europe
CIS
5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
China
Africa
Asia
Data: CRU Note: Scale all except China use North America scale
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Average Chinese power tariffs almost 70% higher than the world average
70 60
Nominal US $/MWh
50 40 30 20 10 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28
25
Cumulative production (million tpy)
Small scale smelters most at risk to closure Substantially lower capital cost keeps Chinese industry competitive
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18
20
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800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1975 1977
Spot alumina (2004$/t) Composite alumina (2004$/t) Operating cost (2004$/t)
Data: CRU
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
CRU view
CRU Bx study; new investment wave, various feasibility studies considerable scope for reduction of capital costs new Alumina capacity coming on-stream below $200/t the current upturn in prices reflects underinvestment the majors have maintained a tight grip on the best assets Alumina LRMC is still in decline the rate of decline is the question worth asking?
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12
16
20
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Low cost energy supply for the refinery Ability to expand to 3-4 million tpy refinery to achieve scale benefits
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Freight higher incidence on bauxite and alumina than metal Energy higher oil and gas prices have a more direct impact on mining
and refining, than on smelting
Caustic soda prices are very high, is there something structural going
on
Structure of Presentation
Market Overview & Cycles Demand Supply & Costs
Carbon products Power market Alumina analysis
Summary Q&A
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The long run price, in real terms, will always tend towards long run costs
The historical price of aluminium and average Western world operating costs 19802003 (2003 $/t)
4400 4000 3600 3200 2800 2400 2000 1600 1200 800
19 60 19 62 19 64 19 66 19 68 19 70 19 72 19 74 19 76 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02
Price
PriceTrend
Operating costs
FOC Trend
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(2004 $/t)
22000 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
19 50 19 90 19 00 19 10 19 20 19 30 19 40 19 60 19 70 19 80 20 00
Exponential Trend Line
What will be the future real price trend? 1900-2003 2%pa decline 1960-2003 1% pa decline CRU View: Next 25 years prices still declining but rate of that decline much slower 0.5% pa
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Mark Fraser Managing Consultant mark.fraser@crugroup.com Tel: +44 (0)20 7903 2314 www.crugroup.com
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