PPP NM Senate Poll 6-27-11

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
June 28, 2011
INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312

IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL
information@publicpolicypolling.com, OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH
OF THE PRESS RELEASE
New Mexico Senate leans towards the Democrats

Raleigh, N.C. With the retirement of Democratic Senator Jeff Bingaman, the race has
become more competitive; however, the Democrats remain favored to retain the seat.
State Auditor Hector Balderas and Congressman Martin Heinrich both lead their potential
Republican opponents. Balderas leads Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez 39-35, former
Congresswoman Heather Wilson 45-39, and businessman Greg Sowards 42-28. Heinrich
achieves similar margins, leading Sanchez 45-39, Wilson 47-42 (Narrowing from 50-39
in February), and Sowards 46-34. While crossover support is either even or to the
Republicans advantage in each matchup, the Democrats have a significant advantage
with independents aside from the Sanchez-Balderas race. In a state where Democrats
outnumber Republicans 51-32, thats a recipe for a Democratic victory.
Aside from Wilson, the field is relatively unknown with 32% or more unwilling to
venture an opinion one way or the other on the other candidates. Both Democrats are
slightly in positive territory among those who know them. 22% see Balderas favorably
compared to 17% who see him unfavorably. Heinrich is better known and about as
popular with a 36-32 rating. The Republicans on the other hand are not well liked.
Sanchez rates most favorably 23-28, followed by Wilson at 38-45, and Sowards at 7-17.
With such low name recognition among the candidates, the race has the potential to be
very fluid and the Democrats cant take it for granted.
This race is going to be competitive but it has a clear lean toward the Democrats, said
Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. Wilson and Sanchez probably arent
strong enough candidates to win the seat if Barack Obama simultaneously takes the state
by double digits as he did in 2008.
PPP will release Presidential numbers for New Mexico tomorrow and will look at the
primaries for Senate later this week as well.
PPP surveyed 732 New Mexico voters from June 23th to 26th. The margin of error for the
survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political
organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is
a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times
found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican
candidates.
Public Policy Polling
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
Phone: 888 621-6988

Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com
New Mexico Survey Results

Q1
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Hector Balderas?
Q7
Favorable........................................................ 22%
Hector Balderas .............................................. 42%
Unfavorable .................................................... 17%
Greg Sowards................................................. 28%
Not sure .......................................................... 61%
Q2

of Martin Heinrich?
Undecided....................................................... 30%
Q8
Favorable........................................................ 36%
Unfavorable .................................................... 32%
Unfavorable .................................................... 28%

Not sure .......................................................... 49%
Q4

of Greg Sowards?
Favorable........................................................ 7%
Unfavorable .................................................... 17%
Not sure .......................................................... 77%
Q5

of Heather Wilson?
Favorable........................................................ 38%
Unfavorable .................................................... 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 17%
Q6
Heather Wilson ............................................... 39%

of John Sanchez?
Favorable........................................................ 23%
If the candidates for US Senate next year were

Democrat Hector Balderas and Republican
John Sanchez, who would you vote for?
Hector Balderas .............................................. 39%
John Sanchez ................................................. 35%
Undecided....................................................... 25%

Heather Wilson, who would you vote for?
Hector Balderas .............................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 32%
Q3

Greg Sowards, who would you vote for?
Undecided....................................................... 16%
Q9

Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican
John Sanchez, who would you vote for?
Martin Heinrich................................................ 45%
John Sanchez ................................................. 39%
Undecided....................................................... 16%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were

Greg Sowards, who would you vote for?
Martin Heinrich................................................ 46%
Greg Sowards................................................. 34%
Undecided....................................................... 20%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were

Heather Wilson, who would you vote for?
Martin Heinrich................................................ 47%
Heather Wilson ............................................... 42%
Undecided....................................................... 11%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain................................................... 37%
Barack Obama................................................ 53%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 10%
June 23-26, 2011

Survey of 732 New Mexico voters

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,

somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 13%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 20%
Moderate......................................................... 29%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 19%
Very conservative ........................................... 19%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman ........................................................... 54%
Man................................................................. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,

press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.

If other, press 3.
Hispanic .......................................................... 39%
White .............................................................. 49%
Other............................................................... 12%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to

45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 15%
30 to 45........................................................... 22%
46 to 65........................................................... 41%
Older than 65 .................................................. 22%
Democrat ........................................................ 51%

Republican...................................................... 32%
Independent/Other .......................................... 17%
June 23-26, 2011

Survey of 732 New Mexico voters

Raleigh, NC 27604
Crosstabs
2008 Vote
2008 Vote
John Barack Som eone else/Don't

Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
Balderas Favorability

Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
Heinrich Favorability
Favorable 22%
15%
28%
10%
Favorable 36%
12%
54%
28%
Unfavorable 17%
19%
16%
18%
Unfavorable 32%
53%
17%
38%
Not sure 61%
66%
56%
72%
Not sure 32%
35%
29%
34%
2008 Vote
2008 Vote

Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
Sanchez Favorability
Sow ards Favorability
Favorable 23%
37%
13%
23%
Unfavorable 28%
17%
36%
Not sure 49%
46%
51%
June 23-26, 2011

survey of 732 New Mexico voters

Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
7%
10%
5%
5%
25%
Unfavorable 17%
12%
19%
17%
53%
Not sure 77%
78%
75%
78%
Favorable

Raleigh, NC 27604
Crosstabs
2008 Vote
2008 Vote

Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
Wilson Favorability

Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
Balderas/Sanchez
Favorable 38%
61%
21%
47%
Hector Balderas 39%
12%
62%
21%
Unfavorable 45%
23%
61%
42%
John Sanchez 35%
68%
12%
37%
Not sure 17%
17%
18%
11%
Undecided 25%
20%
26%
42%
2008 Vote
2008 Vote

Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
Balderas/Sow ards
Balderas/Wilson
Hector Balderas 42%
11%
Greg Sow ards 28%

Undecided 30%
June 23-26, 2011


Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
68%
20%
Hector Balderas 45%
10%
72%
29%
58%
7%
33%
Heather Wilson 39%
75%
12%
46%
31%
25%
47%
Undecided 16%
14%
15%
25%

Raleigh, NC 27604
Crosstabs
2008 Vote
2008 Vote

Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
Heinrich/Sanchez

Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
Heinrich/Sow ards
Martin Heinrich 45%
12%
71%
32%
Martin Heinrich 46%
12%
74%
25%
John Sanchez 39%
76%
14%
38%
Greg Sow ards 34%
68%
10%
38%
Undecided 16%
12%
15%
31%
Undecided 20%
20%
17%
38%
Ideology
2008 Vote
Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
Heinrich/Wilson
Martin Heinrich 47%
12%
74%
33%
Heather Wilson 42%
79%
15%
48%
Undecided 11%
9%
11%
20%
June 23-26, 2011

Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Base liberal
Favorable 22%
21%
26%
27%
20%
10%
Unfavorable 17%
22%
18%
15%
19%
14%
Not sure 61%
57%
56%
58%
61%
76%

Raleigh, NC 27604
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
Base liberal
Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
Base liberal
Favorable 36%
64%
46%
45%
19%
7%
Favorable 23%
9%
14%
18%
33%
40%
Unfavorable 32%
13%
19%
25%
50%
52%
Unfavorable 28%
42%
34%
32%
19%
16%
Not sure 32%
24%
34%
30%
30%
41%
Not sure 49%
49%
52%
50%
49%
44%
Ideology
Ideology
Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
Base liberal
Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
Base liberal
Wilson Favorability
7%
6%
4%
7%
8%
9%
Favorable 38%
20%
21%
31%
56%
62%
Unfavorable 17%
22%
20%
16%
13%
14%
Unfavorable 45%
65%
62%
52%
31%
17%
Not sure 77%
72%
76%
77%
79%
78%
Not sure 17%
14%
18%
17%
13%
21%
Favorable
June 23-26, 2011


Raleigh, NC 27604
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
Base liberal
Balderas/Sanchez
Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
Base liberal
Balderas/Sow ards
Hector Balderas 39%
68%
60%
49%
14%
9%
Hector Balderas 42%
72%
70%
50%
16%
6%
John Sanchez 35%
8%
14%
20%
65%
71%
Greg Sow ards 28%
9%
4%
14%
48%
69%
Undecided 25%
24%
26%
32%
21%
20%
Undecided 30%
19%
26%
35%
37%
25%
Ideology
Ideology
Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
Base liberal
Balderas/Wilson
Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
Base liberal
Heinrich/Sanchez
Hector Balderas 45%
75%
70%
58%
18%
6%
Martin Heinrich 45%
77%
69%
56%
18%
10%
Heather Wilson 39%
14%
15%
21%
67%
81%
John Sanchez 39%
10%
12%
26%
66%
79%
Undecided 16%
11%
15%
21%
15%
13%
Undecided 16%
13%
19%
17%
16%
11%
June 23-26, 2011


Raleigh, NC 27604
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
Base liberal
Heinrich/Sow ards
Very Som ew hat

Som ew hat
Very
Base liberal
Heinrich/Wilson
Martin Heinrich 46%
80%
69%
56%
24%
6%
Martin Heinrich 47%
83%
69%
61%
19%
6%
Greg Sow ards 34%
7%
11%
21%
54%
78%
Heather Wilson 42%
7%
18%
27%
70%
85%
Undecided 20%
13%
20%
23%
22%
16%
Undecided 11%
9%
13%
12%
11%
9%
Gender
Base Wom an
Gender
Man
Base Wom an
Man
Favorable 22%
21%
22%
Favorable 36%
35%
36%
Unfavorable 17%
14%
21%
Unfavorable 32%
30%
35%
Not sure 61%
65%
57%
Not sure 32%
35%
29%
June 23-26, 2011


Raleigh, NC 27604
Crosstabs
Gender
Base Wom an
Gender
Man
Base Wom an
Man
Favorable 23%
22%
24%
Unfavorable 28%
25%
32%
Not sure 49%
53%
44%
7%
7%
7%
Unfavorable 17%
12%
22%
Not sure 77%
81%
71%
Favorable
Gender
Base Wom an
Gender
Man
Wilson Favorability
Base Wom an
Man
Balderas/Sanchez
Favorable 38%
33%
45%
Hector Balderas 39%
41%
38%
Unfavorable 45%
48%
41%
John Sanchez 35%
32%
39%
Not sure 17%
19%
14%
Undecided 25%
27%
23%
June 23-26, 2011


Raleigh, NC 27604
Crosstabs
Gender
Base Wom an
Gender
Man
Balderas/Sow ards
Base Wom an
Man
Balderas/Wilson
Hector Balderas 42%
44%
40%
Hector Balderas 45%
49%
40%
Greg Sow ards 28%
25%
32%
Heather Wilson 39%
33%
46%
Undecided 30%
30%
29%
Undecided 16%
18%
14%
Gender
Base Wom an
Gender
Man
Heinrich/Sanchez
Base Wom an
Man
Heinrich/Sow ards
Martin Heinrich 45%
48%
42%
Martin Heinrich 46%
50%
42%
John Sanchez 39%
35%
43%
Greg Sow ards 34%
30%
39%
Undecided 16%
16%
15%
Undecided 20%
20%
19%
June 23-26, 2011


Raleigh, NC 27604
Crosstabs
Party
Gender
Base Wom an
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Man
Heinrich/Wilson
Favorable 22%
26%
13%
24%
Martin Heinrich 47%
52%
41%
Unfavorable 17%
17%
19%
13%
Heather Wilson 42%
36%
49%
Not sure 61%
57%
68%
63%
Undecided 11%
12%
10%
Party
Party


Favorable 36%
50%
14%
33%
Favorable 23%
16%
33%
23%
Unfavorable 32%
20%
50%
36%
Unfavorable 28%
35%
21%
22%
Not sure 32%
29%
37%
31%
Not sure 49%
49%
46%
54%
June 23-26, 2011


Raleigh, NC 27604
Crosstabs
Party
Party


Wilson Favorability
7%
7%
9%
3%
Favorable 38%
25%
62%
33%
Unfavorable 17%
18%
13%
17%
Unfavorable 45%
58%
24%
45%
Not sure 77%
75%
77%
80%
Not sure 17%
17%
14%
22%
Favorable
Party
Party

Balderas/Sanchez

Balderas/Sow ards
Hector Balderas 39%
60%
12%
30%
Hector Balderas 42%
64%
10%
37%
John Sanchez 35%
16%
68%
32%
Greg Sow ards 28%
10%
63%
19%
Undecided 25%
25%
20%
38%
Undecided 30%
26%
27%
44%
June 23-26, 2011


Raleigh, NC 27604
Crosstabs
Party
Party

Balderas/Wilson

Heinrich/Sanchez
Hector Balderas 45%
65%
14%
43%
Martin Heinrich 45%
65%
15%
45%
Heather Wilson 39%
20%
73%
34%
John Sanchez 39%
19%
74%
32%
Undecided 16%
15%
14%
23%
Undecided 16%
16%
12%
23%
Party
Party

Heinrich/Sow ards

Heinrich/Wilson
Martin Heinrich 46%
68%
13%
41%
Martin Heinrich 47%
68%
13%
47%
Greg Sow ards 34%
13%
72%
27%
Heather Wilson 42%
21%
79%
35%
Undecided 20%
19%
15%
32%
Undecided 11%
11%
8%
17%
June 23-26, 2011


Raleigh, NC 27604
Crosstabs
Race
Race
Base Hispanic White Other


Favorable 22%
30%
15%
23%
Favorable 36%
39%
32%
36%
Unfavorable 17%
16%
19%
13%
Unfavorable 32%
31%
35%
28%
Not sure 61%
54%
66%
64%
Not sure 32%
30%
33%
36%
Race
Race

Favorable 23%
25%
22%
20%
Unfavorable 28%
28%
28%
Not sure 49%
47%
50%
June 23-26, 2011

7%
7%
8%
1%
27%
Unfavorable 17%
17%
15%
21%
53%
Not sure 77%
76%
77%
78%
Favorable

Raleigh, NC 27604
Crosstabs
Race
Race

Wilson Favorability

Balderas/Sanchez
Favorable 38%
36%
42%
31%
Hector Balderas 39%
47%
35%
34%
Unfavorable 45%
46%
44%
48%
John Sanchez 35%
30%
41%
29%
Not sure 17%
18%
14%
21%
Undecided 25%
24%
24%
37%
Race
Race

Balderas/Sow ards

Balderas/Wilson
Hector Balderas 42%
52%
36%
36%
Hector Balderas 45%
53%
39%
45%
Greg Sow ards 28%
21%
35%
24%
Heather Wilson 39%
32%
47%
27%
Undecided 30%
27%
29%
40%
Undecided 16%
15%
14%
29%
June 23-26, 2011


Raleigh, NC 27604
Crosstabs
Race
Race

Heinrich/Sanchez

Heinrich/Sow ards
Martin Heinrich 45%
50%
43%
41%
Martin Heinrich 46%
51%
41%
50%
John Sanchez 39%
36%
45%
27%
Greg Sow ards 34%
28%
41%
25%
Undecided 16%
14%
13%
32%
Undecided 20%
20%
18%
26%
Age
Race
Base
Heinrich/Wilson
Martin Heinrich 47%
53%
42%
46%
Heather Wilson 42%
38%
47%
30%
Undecided 11%
8%
10%
24%
June 23-26, 2011

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Favorable 22%
21%
21%
23%
20%
Unfavorable 17%
16%
12%
19%
20%
Not sure 61%
63%
67%
59%
60%

Raleigh, NC 27604
Crosstabs
Age
Base
Age
29
45
65 than 65
Base
29
45
65 than 65
Favorable 36%
39%
27%
41%
32%
Favorable 23%
27%
21%
22%
24%
Unfavorable 32%
36%
32%
29%
38%
Unfavorable 28%
29%
14%
34%
30%
Not sure 32%
25%
41%
31%
30%
Not sure 49%
45%
65%
44%
45%
Age
Base
Age
29
45
65 than 65
Base
29
45
65 than 65
Wilson Favorability
7%
9%
5%
8%
7%
Favorable 38%
41%
36%
35%
44%
Unfavorable 17%
18%
5%
20%
21%
Unfavorable 45%
38%
44%
51%
40%
Not sure 77%
73%
91%
72%
72%
Not sure 17%
21%
20%
13%
17%
Favorable
June 23-26, 2011


Raleigh, NC 27604
Crosstabs
Age
Base
Age
29
45
65 than 65
Balderas/Sanchez
Base
29
45
65 than 65
Balderas/Sow ards
Hector Balderas 39%
45%
29%
44%
38%
Hector Balderas 42%
43%
35%
47%
41%
John Sanchez 35%
34%
35%
34%
39%
Greg Sow ards 28%
34%
30%
24%
31%
Undecided 25%
21%
36%
22%
23%
Undecided 30%
23%
35%
30%
28%
Age
Base
Age
29
45
65 than 65
Balderas/Wilson
Base
29
45
65 than 65
Heinrich/Sanchez
Hector Balderas 45%
48%
47%
45%
41%
Martin Heinrich 45%
48%
44%
47%
42%
Heather Wilson 39%
38%
32%
40%
47%
John Sanchez 39%
36%
39%
37%
45%
Undecided 16%
14%
21%
15%
13%
Undecided 16%
16%
17%
16%
13%
June 23-26, 2011


Raleigh, NC 27604
Crosstabs
Age
Base
Age
29
45
65 than 65
Heinrich/Sow ards
Base
29
45
65 than 65
Heinrich/Wilson
Martin Heinrich 46%
48%
39%
50%
44%
Martin Heinrich 47%
46%
45%
50%
43%
Greg Sow ards 34%
38%
36%
31%
36%
Heather Wilson 42%
45%
41%
38%
47%
Undecided 20%
14%
24%
19%
21%
Undecided 11%
9%
14%
11%
10%
June 23-26, 2011


Raleigh, NC 27604

PPP NM Senate Poll 6-27-11

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

PPP NM Senate Poll 6-27-11

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

June 28, 2011

INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312

New Mexico Senate leans towards the Democrats

Phone: 888 621-6988

New Mexico Survey Results

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

Hector Balderas .............................................. 42%

Unfavorable .................................................... 17%

Greg Sowards................................................. 28%

Not sure .......................................................... 61%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

Unfavorable .................................................... 28%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

Heather Wilson ............................................... 39%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

If the candidates for US Senate next year were

If the candidates for US Senate next year were

Not sure .......................................................... 32%

If the candidates for US Senate next year were

If the candidates for US Senate next year were

Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were

Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were

Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

June 23-26, 2011

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,

Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to

Democrat ........................................................ 51%

June 23-26, 2011

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

John Barack Som eone else/Don't

John Barack Som eone else/Don't

Not sure 61%

Not sure 32%

John Barack Som eone else/Don't

Sow ards Favorability

Not sure 49%

June 23-26, 2011

John Barack Som eone else/Don't

Not sure 77%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

John Barack Som eone else/Don't

John Barack Som eone else/Don't

Hector Balderas 39%

John Sanchez 35%

Not sure 17%

John Barack Som eone else/Don't

Hector Balderas 42%

Greg Sow ards 28%

June 23-26, 2011

John Barack Som eone else/Don't

Hector Balderas 45%

Heather Wilson 39%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

John Barack Som eone else/Don't

John Barack Som eone else/Don't

Martin Heinrich 45%

Martin Heinrich 46%