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Overview
First quarter GDP estimates were revised upwards, but at 1.9%, the economy is growing much slower than economists predicted at the beginning of the year. For 2011, GDP growth is expected to come in at just under 3.0%, nowhere near what could be considered an expansion, but rather slow growth mode. Although the employment picture has been somewhat of a monthly roller coaster ride (just 54,000 jobs added in May, following 232,000 jobs added in April), over 2.1 million jobs have been created over the past fifteen months. The Washington Metro area has performed relatively well on several fronts: the unemployment rate, which is the lowest of any large metro area at 5.4%; and signs of stabilization in the housing market. While the latter is far from exhibiting strong growth, it has been holding its own, with increases in sales prices and number of sales in recent months. The unemployment rate in Northern Virginia was just 4.0% in April, with Arlington County having the lowest rate of 3.4%. Employment growth has been strong in the state as whole, with 2.8% growth in private sector jobs since the beginning of the year. 23,050-sf lease at Reston Town Center, a relocation from 1775 Wiehle Avenue. Orbital Sciences Corporation demonstrated its commitment to Loudoun County by extending its 337,000-sf lease in Dulles for seven years. The System Planning Corporation renewed its 106,966- sf lease at One Virginia Square in Arlington. Absorption through mid-year was negative 170,738 sf, which was a slight improvement from last quarter. A year ago at this time, absorption was negative 203,924 sf. Leasing improved during the latter half of the year and absorption ended on a positive note. There are several large deals which have either recently closed (including TARGUSinfo and NeoSystems at 1861 International Drive) or are still in the works, which will boost leasing activity and ultimately absorption during the third and fourth quarters. The overall vacancy rate inched down to 15.0% from 15.2% last quarter. At 14.5%, the class A vacancy rate was at its lowest point since the third quarter of 2009 as the flight to quality continued. Several tenants such as CBRE, QinetiQ North America, and Burdette Smith took occupancy of their class A space in 2011, helping to push down vacant space. Direct asking rents increased by about 1.5% from last quarter, while class A space saw a slightly larger jump of 2.1%. Three submarkets posted higher than average gains: Tysons Corner at 2.2%, Rosslyn at 3.4%, and Springfield/Annandale/Bailey's, which increased by over 15% due to a 50,000-sf block of space at Kingstowne Town Center in Alexandria priced at $39 per square foot (psf). Over 1.5 msf is under construction in Northern Virginia, most of which is in the Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor. At 5.6%, the class A vacancy rate in the RB Corridor more than recovered from last quarter's increase and is at its lowest point in more than three years. So while it's not surprising that three of the four projects are speculative, none of them have yet to secure a tenant. The next
Stats on the Go
2Q10 2Q11 Y-o-Y 12 month Change Forecast
13 Overall Vacancy Direct Asking Rents YTD Leasing Activity (sf) 15.7% 15.0% -0.7 pp 12 11 $30.51 $30.90 1.3% msf 10 9 8 3,051,798 1,242,641 -59.3% 7 6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2Q11
$35.00 $33.00 $31.00 $29.00 $27.00 $25.00 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
Absorption
Leasing Activity
6.0 4.0
msf
2.0 0.0
Two of the hottest topics in Northern Virginia are centered around transportation developments. In May, the House of Representatives approved legislation that could delay the move of 6,400 defense workers to the Mark Center in Alexandria, due to concerns over traffic congestion. The move is part of the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Act, and was originally scheduled for completion in September of this year. If approved by the Senate, the move will be delayed for approximately one year, which will not be long enough to implement some of the proposed roadway changes. The House bill also calls for limiting the number of parking spots to just 1,000 in order to encourage employees to use public transportation. On the other side of Fairfax County, Phase I of the Metrorail extension is 40% complete, and is scheduled to open in 2013. Four stops will be added in Tysons Corner and one in Reston. Discussions of development activity focused around these new Metro stations are starting to percolate. Ground-breaking at 1775 Tysons Boulevard, a 472,000-sf office property, is expected this summer. The expansion of the MITRE Corporations campus, a 340,000-sf building has been approved by the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. Additionally, The Georgelas Group and Greystar are close to reaching a deal on the development of a 404unit apartment building near the Tysons West Metro station, although the project has yet to gain zoning approval. The RB Corridor is often touted as a model for Transit Oriented Development. As the vision for Tysons Corner starts to take hold along the same vein, the markets outside the Beltway will become more and more attractive to tenants looking for better access via public transportation, as well as the ability to offer a live/work/play environment to their employees.
2.0
Cushman & Wakefield of Virginia, Inc. 1600 Tysons Boulevard, Suite 400, McLean, VA 22102 (703) 448-1200
www.cushmanwakefield.com
* The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. 2011 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.
Market/Submarket Statistics
Market/Submarke t Rosslyn Arlington Metro Corridor Ballston Crystal City/Pentagon City Arlington/Non-Metro Arlington County Old T own I-395 Corridor Huntington/Eisenhower City of Alexandria Springfield/Annandale/Baileys Merrifield/Route 50 Fairfax/Oakton/Vienna T ysons Corner/McLean Reston/Herndon Route 28 South/Chantilly Fairfax County Loudoun County Northe rn Virginia Total Inventory 8,245,705 5,297,420 5,830,294 11,956,380 1,203,921 32,533,720 8,346,971 3,139,624 2,573,709 14,060,304 6,509,379 6,781,681 9,061,637 22,102,986 24,915,478 9,166,852 78,538,013 4,984,333 130,116,370 O ve rall Dire ct Vacancy Vacancy Rate Rate 7.9% 6.8% 13.2% 11.1% 4.1% 3.4% 7.5% 7.1% 2.4% 2.1% 7.7% 6.8% 9.7% 8.4% 22.4% 21.5% 17.0% 17.0% 13.9% 12.9% 11.5% 10.6% 16.1% 13.2% 17.2% 15.0% 18.6% 16.9% 18.4% 16.7% 18.3% 17.1% 17.5% 15.8% 24.8% 24.0% 15.0% 13.6% YTD YTD Leasing Under C onstruction Activity Construction Comple tions 200,680 524,605 0 64,291 99,930 0 38,503 628,676 0 61,861 0 0 0 0 0 365,335 1,253,211 0 41,848 0 0 0 0 0 10,643 0 0 52,491 0 0 64,565 325,419 94,280 197,323 0 0 47,928 0 0 169,225 0 0 219,169 0 0 13,266 0 0 711,476 325,419 94,280 113,339 0 0 1,242,641 1,578,630 94,280 YTD Dire ct YTD O ve rall Absorption Absorption (197,859) (171,146) (253,953) (244,709) (12,399) (23,207) 35,481 28,908 (1,822) (5,970) (430,552) (416,124) (10,118) (85,202) 101,360 98,860 42,750 42,330 133,992 55,988 116,112 117,559 43,054 6,994 153,698 118,751 33,910 64,919 (146,202) (143,204) 7,227 (9,573) 207,799 155,446 38,396 33,952 (50,365) (170,738) O verall Wtd. Avg. All C lasses Gross Rental Rate $42.43 $41.64 $37.74 $38.61 $30.02 $40.12 $34.05 $33.29 $31.78 $33.38 $27.57 $29.01 $26.18 $30.67 $28.19 $27.66 $28.73 $25.08 $30.43 Direct Wtd. Avg. Class A Gross Rental Rate $50.88 $44.19 $39.74 $41.74 $34.50 $43.36 $36.72 $35.11 $39.71 $36.13 $36.47 $33.61 $28.71 $39.27 $30.85 $29.38 $32.46 $26.46 $33.63
Market Highlights
SIGNIFICANT 2Q 11 LEASE TRANSACTIO NS
BUILDING
21819-21839 A tlantic Boulevard 3601 Wilson Boulevard 1764 O ld M eadow Ln 1410 Sp ring H ill Road 11911 Freedom D rive
SUBM A RKET
Loudoun County A rlington M etro Corridor T y sons Corner/M cLean T y sons Corner/M cLean Reston/H erndon
TENA NT
O rbital Sciences Corp oration* Sy stem Planning Corp oration* Paetec Communications, Inc. D ixon H ughes G oodman LLP D LA Pip er Rudnick G ray Cary U S LLP
SQUA RE FEET
337,000 106,966 62,000 49,181 23,050
BUILDING CLA SS
B A B A A
SUBM A RKET
Fairfax/O akton/Vienna Reston/H erndon T y sons Corner/ M cLean H untington/ Eisenhow er O ld T ow n
BUYER
First Potomac Realty T rust Regents of the U niversity of CA PS Business Parks Catholic Charities U SA A SB Cap ital M anagement
SQUA RE FEET
214,214 180,000 140,454 67,093 59,652
PURCHA SE PRICE
$60,250,000 $58,000,000 $27,100,000 $24,696,000 $12,125,000
SUBM A RKET
N /A
M A JOR TENA NT
N /A
M A JOR TENA NT
N /A G SA -D A RPA T auri G roup N /A N /A
SUBM A RKET
Rossly n Ballston Sp ringfield/A nnandale/Bailey s Ballston A rlington M etro Center
Cushman & Wakefield of Virginia, Inc. 1600 Tysons Boulevard, Suite 400, McLean, VA 22102 (703) 448-1200
www.cushmanwakefield.com
* The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. 2011 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.