World Oilseed Outlook Sep 10 - Mielke

Global Supply, Demand and Price Prospects of Major Oilseeds, Oils and Oilmeals
Presentation at Soya Summit in Minneapolis, 6 Oct 2010

Presentation at POC 2010 in Kuala Lumpur, March 10, 2010
Thomas Mielke, Executive Director of ISTA Mielke GmbH, Global Market Research on Oilseeds, Oils and Meals,
E-mail <Thomas.Mielke@oilworld.de>
Oct 2, 2010
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
www.oilworld.de
Background to ISTA Mielke where OIL WORLD is produced

ISTA Mielke GmbH was founded in 1958 International STatistical Agricultural Information Independent; no supply & demand engagement, no involvement in trading (futures + cash); Recognized worldwide as the leading private authority for global research and market analyses for oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals (with clients in 100 countries) Providing thoroughly elaborated and unbiased information of the past and current global supply, demand and price developments as well as forecasts & projections. www.oilworld.de The results are given in several publications under the name Oil World as well as in special studies (upon request)
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
The Global Oils/Fats Market is in a Production Deficit

Edible oil prices increasing sharply since July 2010 (despite record soya crop in US) High volatility ahead Some setback possible nearby We expect additional price strength in 2010/11 Yesterday crude mineral oil rose to US $ 85 in Europe
1250 1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 950 900 850 800 750 700 Daily Prices of 4 Oils in Rotterdam (US-$/T)
Sun oil, EU
Rape oi l, Dutch
Soya oil , Dutch Crude palm oil, cif N.W. Eur.
Jan10 Feb
Mar
Apr
Jun
Jly
Aug Sep
Oct 2, 2010
Daily prices from 1 Jan 2010 until 1 Oct 2010

Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 www.oilworld.de
Soybeans Dominate the Global Oilseed Market
The Outlook of Soybeans & other Oilseeds
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
Dominance of Soybeans with a production of 259 Mn T in 2010/11 (down 2 Mn T) Rapeseed crop to drop by 4 Mn T in 2010/11 Sunflowerseed production 2 Mn T below earlier estimates
Global Production of 10 Oilseeds

2010/11 = 440 Mn T Soybeans = 259 Mn T
Soybeans 59%
U.S.A. 37%
Brazil 26% Other 6% Argentina 20% China 5% Cottonseed 10% Sunflowerseed 7%

Oct 2, 2010
Groundnuts 5% Rapeseed 13%
Other ctries 12%
www.oilworld.de
10 Oilseeds: World Production (Mn T)
World output of soybeans doubled since 1994/95 9 other oilseeds have grown 40 %
290 270 250 230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
Oct 2, 2010
Soybeans
Other 9 oilseeds
www.oilworld.de
SOYBEANS
World supplies of soybeans are ample and likely to remain ample in Sept/Febr 2010/11 Strong demand for soya oil ... .. require a boost in soya crush by around 18 Mn T in 2010/11 Ample supplies of soya meal
World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)

300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40
Production Area
94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
60
World soybean crushings to surge by around 18 Mn T in 2010/11 Outstanding growth in China - increasing steeply from 4 Mn T in 1991/92 to 53 Mn T in 2010/11
Soybeans : Crushings in Key Countries (Mn T)
50 40 30 20 10 0
U.S.A. EU-27 Argentina China Brazil
92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
10 OILSEEDS:
World Supply and Demand ( Mn T )
Forecast
Opening stocks Production . . . . . . thereof soybeans Sunseed . . . . . . Rapeseed . . . . . Total supplies . . . Disappearance. . . thereof soybeans Sun+Rapeseed . Ending stocks . . . thereof soybeans St ocks/usage
Change
09/10 59.7 440.2 260.7 32.2 60.6 500.0 418.9* 237.9* 93.8* 81.0* 68.3* 19.3% 08/09 70.0 393.9 211.3 34.8 58.4 463.9 404.2 225.4 90.1 59.7 45.5 14.8% 07/08 83.3 390.1 220.5 29.3 48.6 473.4 403.5 232.3 79.2 70.0 59.6 17.3% 06/07 72.9 406.0 237.6 30.4 47.7 478.9 395.6 225.5 79.7 83.3 71.4 21.0%
2010/11F 2009/10 81.0* +21.3 440.4* +0.2 258.9* -1.8 32.2* +/- 0 56.8* -3.8 521.4* 439.6* 256.4* 91.1* 81.8* 70.8* 18.6% +21.4 +20.7 +18.5 -2.7 +0.8 +2.5
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
World stocks of 10 oilseeds recovered by 22 Mn T in 2009/10 And are set to increase further by 1-2 Mn T in 2010/11, despite the losses in rapeseed and sunflowerseed
OILSEEDS: Surplus/Deficit of Production and Soybean Prices (in US-$/T)

25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
Oct 2, 2010
600
Mn T Soybeans, cif Rott.
400 200 0 -200
www.oilworld.de
World Stocks in Percent of Annual Usage

22 20
17 oils & fats 10 oilseeds
Early Outlook for the 2010/11 Season for Ending Stocks: Oilseeds +1 Mn T Oils/Fats 0.5 Mn T
18 16 14 12 10 8 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Oct 2, 2010
At the End of the Season

CBOT: Daily Soybean & Wheat Futures (c/bu)

1200
1100 Soybeans at 2-year high in Sept 2010 1000 Wheat at a 2-year 900 high in August Corn also rallied to 800 a 2-year high 700 Cotton reached a 600 19-month high in mid-Sept 500 400
Soybeans Nov 2010
Wheat Dec 2010
Nov DecJan10Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jly Aug Sep

Oct 2, 2010
Daily futures from 1 Nov 2009 until 5 Oct 2010

CBOT: Daily Soya Meal Futures ($/ST)

320 310 300 290 280 270 260 250 240
Nov09 Dec Jan10Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep
Oct 2, 2010
Dec 2010
50-day moving average

CBOT: Daily Soya Oil Futures (c/lb)

46
Dec 2010
44 42 40 38
50-day moving average
36
Nov09 Dec Jan10Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep
Oct 2, 2010

Where are we going from here ?

Despite current ample supplies, prices of soybeans and oil are supported by : Bullish Impacts from grains. Fight for acreage is going to intensify in 2011. Heavy speculative buying during most July/Sept 2010 - - > but price rally overdone, recently downward correction. But corn rallied yesterday to close to US $ 5.00 on concern that the US crop may be reduced by 2% this Friday
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de

Despite current ample supplies, prices of soybeans and oil are supported by : Impacts from grains. Fight for acreage is going to intensify in 2011. Heavy speculative participation. Extreme weather events in 2010 - - > the focus is now on South America
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
Soybean Crop Trend Since 74/75

140 130 Mn T 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
U.S.A.
Argentina, Brazil & Paraguay
74/75 80/81 86/87 92/93
98/99 04/05 10/11

Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
South America : In Brazil the Soybean Production Prospects Have Deteriorated for the Crop in Early 2011
Very dry conditions in Brazil & Argentina and during the July and August. Very good rains in Argentina in Sept, but still drought in Central Brazil Prospects indicate drier than normal conditions in Nov/Jan 2010/11 caused by La Nia.
ARGENTINA : Rainfall in % of normal Sept Aug July June May 2010p 2010 2010 2010 2010 Buenos Aires (12 stations) 161% 24% 113% 157% 338% Santa F (5 stations) . . . Crdoba (5 stations) . . . . Entre Ros (2 stations) . . La Pampa (2 stations) . . . 172% 170% 94% 253% 44% 16% 56% 65% 88% 1% 211% 57% 13% 198% 45% 74% 43% 158% 87% 71%
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
ARGENTINA: Development of Oilseed and Grain Plantings ( Mn ha )
Soybeans the by far dominant crop in Argentina Steep expansion at the expense of other crops, . . but lack of rotation Total cultivated area boosted by 3.4 Mn ha or 13% in past 4 years . . as grassland cattle diminishing
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 10/11
Oct 2, 2010
Soybeans
Grains
Other Oilseeds
www.oilworld.de
South American Soybean Production Prospects for Early 2011
In Mato Grosso soybean plantings delayed by 3 w eeks There are considerable supply risks ahead. In our preliminary estimate w e expect South American soybean production to drop by 6-7 Mn T in early 2011.
SOYBEANS: Output in South America ( Mn T ) 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Brazil . . . . 65.50* 68.69 57.17 60.02 58.73 Argentina 52.00* 54.70* 31.50* 46.20 48.30 Paraguay. 6.90* 7.48 4.15 6.12 5.86 Bolivia . . . 1.75* 1.68* 1.46 1.48 1.60 Uruguay. . 1.77* 1.94* 1.17 .90 .82 Total . . . . 127.92* 134.49 95.45 114.72 115.31
- 7 Mn T
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
Number of Days without Rain

in March/Sept 2010
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
Soil Moisture Supplies almost depleted

as of early October
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de

Despite current ample supplies, prices of soybeans and oil are supported by : Fight for acreage is going to intensify in 2011. Extreme weather events. Focus now on S. America. Big crop losses in rapeseed and sunflowerseed. Plummeting world supplies of rape oil and sun oil.
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
Rapeseed and Oil
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
2010/11 World Output to Decline

RAPESEED & CANOLA Canada -1.6 Mn T EU-27 - 1.6 Mn Ukraine - 0.4 China - 1.0 Australia + 0.3 Strong demand Stocks to drop
World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)
60 56 52 48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16
Production
Area
93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
2010/11 world crush to fall for 1st time in many years

Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
Daily Rapeseed & Canola Futures Nearest Forward Position (US-$/T)
Prices in Europe relatively firmer than in Canada

520 500 480 460 440 420 400 380 360 340
Winnipeg Canola
May Jun July Aug Sep Prices from 01 May 2010 until 29 Sept 2010
Oct 2, 2010
Rapeseed Euronext
www.oilworld.de
Rape Oil : World Production

Annual Change (Mn T)
2,4 2 1,6 1,2 0,8 0,4 0 -0,4 -0,8 -1,2
First decline in 8 years
92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
Octob er / Sept emb er

Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
Output 2010/11: Arg. 2.6 Mn vs 2.3 EU-27: 6.9 vs 7.0 Ukraine 7.0 vs 7.3 Russia 6.1 vs. 6.5 Strong demand Stocks to drop
SUNFLOWERSEED
World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha) 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16
Production
Area
93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
World supplies of sun oil and rape oil seen declining by 1.2 Mn T in 2010/11 In contrast to an average annual increase of 1.5 Mn T in the most recent 5 seasons The shortage in rape & sun oils will require unusually high increases in palm and soya oil production & usage in Oct/Sept 2010/11 But still uncertainties in respect to production in several countries, m ainly in Russia and Argentina.
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de

Despite current ample supplies, prices of soybeans and oil are supported by : Fight for acreage is going to intensify in 2011 Extreme weather events. Focus now on S. America Plummeting world supplies of rape oil and sun oil. Strong world demand
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
Crushings of 10 OILSEEDS
World crush of 10 oilseeds to jump 17-18 Mn T in 2010/11 Boom in world oilseed crushing - - growth of 10 Mn T p.a. in latest 4 years under the lead of China, S.America, the USA and the EU
in Major Countries ( Mn T )
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
China
U.S.A. EU-27 Brazil Argentina

94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
India
October / September
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
17 Oils & Fats : World Disappearance

T he annual grow th rates of w orld demand of oils & fats vitually doubled since the late nineties T he global market is struggling since 2007 to expand w orld vegetable oil production sufficiently World stocks of oils/fats w ill still be tight at the end of the 2009/10 season + likely to decline further in 2010/11
180 165 150 135 120 105 90 75 60 45 30 15 0
Total Usage and Annual Change (Mn T)
World Disappearance
Annual Change
Annual Change
12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
86/87 89/90 92/93 95/96 98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11

Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
EU-27: Demand & Production of 17 Oils & Fats (Mn T)
34 32
In 2010/11 EU-27 consumption details: Rape oil 9.7 Mn T Palm oil 6.3 Mn T Soya oil 2.9 Mn T Sun oil 3.5 Mn T
30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14
Demand
[ Rising Import Needs \
Production
92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
EU-27 : Consumption of Rape Oil
EU usage of rape oil for biofuels to rise to 6.7 Mn T in 2009/10 from 5.7 Mn one year and 5.1 Mn T two years ago Decline in prospect for 2010/11
Sharp Increase for Bio-Fuels (Mn T)

10 8 6 4 2 0
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
Oct 2, 2010
for Bio-Fuels for Food and other uses

64%
67%
19%
50%
www.oilworld.de
INDIA: Domestic Supply & Demand

and Imports of Oils & Fats (MnT)
More than 50% of domestic requirements of oils & fats were imported in past 2 years compared with less 15% in the mid-nineties Some relief in 2010/11, but only temporary
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Domestic Disappearance Production of Oils/Fats Imports
94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
October/ Septem ber

Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
CHINA : Imports of Oilseeds and Oils & Fats

Chinese imports in Oct/Sep 2010/11: Soybeans 53.6 Mn T (vs 50.6 and 41.1), or 57% of world imports

60 Mn T 56 52 48 44 40 Oilseeds 36 32 28 24 20 16 Oils & Fats 12 8 4 0 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
Oct 2, 2010
Soya oil 1.7 Mn (1.6) All oils and fats 10.6 Mn T (vs 10.0) Oilmeals 3.2 Mn (3.0)
www.oilworld.de
CHINA: Domestic Supply & Demand

Chinese imports in Oct/Sep 2010/11: Soybeans 53.6 Mn T (vs 50.6 and 41.1), or 57% of world imports

and Imports of Oils & Fats (MnT)
Domestic Disappearance Production of Oils / Fats Imports
Soya oil 1.7 Mn (1.6) All oils and fats 10.6 Mn T (vs 10.0) Oilmeals 3.2 Mn (3.0)
32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0
94/95 96/97 98/99
00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
Summary of World Balance

World output in Oct/Sep 2010/11: Soya oil 41.4 vs 38.3 Palm oil 49.3 vs 46.4 Rape oil 22.6 vs 23.3 Sun oil 12.0 vs 12.3 Stocks declining Demand rationing necessary in 2010/11
17 OILS & FATS : World Supply & Demand ( Mn T ) Forecast O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 10/11F 09/10 08/09 07/08 06/07 Op'g stocks 18.68* 18.84 18.19 17.12 17.27 Production 175.83* 169.82* 163.10 159.39 152.16 +3.5% +4.1% +2.3% +4.8% +2.8% Growth
Im ports Exports Consumption Growth End stocks 67.00* 66.67* 176.72* +4.2% 64.88* 65.23* 64.21 63.59 60.64 60.86 57.37 57.72 151.96 +4.3%
169.64* 163.06 158.11 +4.0% +3.1% +4.0%
18.12*
10.3%
18.68* 18.84
11.0% 11.6%
18.19
11.5%
17.12
11.3%
Oct 2, 2010
Stocks/usage
www.oilworld.de
10 Oilseeds : World Crushings (Mn T)

Strong world demand of veg oil for food and nonfood purposes will boost soya oil demand and thus boost soybean crushings by about 17-18 Mn T in 2010/11
240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90
98/99 00/01
Soybeans
9 other Seeds
02/03 04/05 06/07 October / September
08/09
10/11
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
SOYA OIL World Production vs. Demand

Growth Rates in %
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6
02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
Oct 2, 2010
Production Consumption
www.oilworld.de
Exports of soya oil curbed in 2010 by rapidly increasing biodiesel production in Argentina and Brazil
SOYA OIL : World Exports ( Mn T ) October / September 10/11F 09/10 08/09 07/08 U.S.A.. . . 1.40* 1.55* 1.00 1.32 Argentina. 5.03* 4.47* 4.83 5.94 Brazil . . . 1.20* 1.52* 1.91 2.39 Oth ctrs. . Total . . . . 1.97* 9.60* 1.81* 9.35* 1.81 9.55 1.53 11.18
06/07 .85 6.03 2.46 1.49 10.83
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2
17 Oils & Fats: Stocks & Stocks/Usage

Stocks Mn T
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Stocks/Usage (%)
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Oct 2, 2010
En d - Se pt em be r
Biodiesel Output Set to Accelerate in 2010

World Production of Biodiesel ( Mn T )
Sharp increase of 3.0 Mn T in Jan/Dec 2010 Higher usage mandates come into force Soya, rape and palm oils are the major feedstocks (1st generation) Will become difficult to satisfy demand grow th for biofuels in 2011 and in the years ahead Excess capacity 47 Mn
20 16
14.3*
18.9
15.9*
12 8
7.1 9.5
4 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
17 Oils & Fats: World Consumption, by Category
World consumption of 17 oils/fats reached 164.8 Mn T in Jan/Dec 2009:

123.2 Mn (75%)
Jan/Dec 2009 total: 164.8 Mn T 16.7 Mn (10%)
Of which: Food use 123.2 (75%) Biofuels (biodiesel & electricity) 16.5 (10%) Chemical 16.7 (10%) Other use 8.4 (5%)
16.5 Mn (10%)
8.4 Mn (5%)
Food use Chemicals
Other (animal feed, etc.) Energy (biofuels )

Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
EU - 27 : Biodiesel Produ ction & Capacities
Mn T
Capacitie s (end of the year) Production
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
In the USA biodiesel output to decline again in 2010 due to lack of tax credit In Jan/Aug 2010 output at 4-year low of 0.8 Mn T against 1.1 Mn Of which soya oil 0.4 Mn T vs. 0.5
U.S. Biodiesel Capacity & Production

10 Mn T 8 6 4 2 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Oct 2, 2010
Capacity (end of year) Production (annual)
www.oilworld.de
3500 3000 2500
AR GENTINA: Biodiesel Production & Capacities
Capa cities (end of the year) Production
ARGENTINA : Biodiesel Production, Exports & Consumption (1000 T) January / December 2011F 2010F 2009 2008 2007 Production . . . . 2500* 2000* 1180 720 180
Exports . . . . . . 1400* 1410* 1150 Consumption . . 1100* 590* 20 725 5 168 2
2000 1500 1000 500 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
Braz. Soya oil exports in Jan/July 2010: 5000 Decline to 937 Thd T (vs 1075 a year ago) and in Jan/Dec 2009: 1594 (vs. 2316) - - 4000 - - due to interior biodiesel production
3000
BRAZIL: Biodiesel Production & Capacities
Capacities (end of the year) Production
BRAZIL : Biodiesel Production ( 1000 T ) Jan /July Ja n/ Dec Biodiesel 2010 2009 2009 2008 2007 Production . . 1160 709 1415 1030 360 Feedstock used Soya oil. . . . 960 Tallow . . . . . 155 Cotton oil . . . 17 Other oils . . 28 555 120 22 12 1097 234 47 37 830* 290* 160* 50* 24* 10* 16* 10*
2000 1000 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
ARG ENTINA & BRAZIL : Increa sing Biodiese l Production a nd the Effects on S oya Oil (Mn T) Soya oil production Argentina . . . Brazil . . . . . Total . . . . . . Biodiese l Argentina . Brazil . . . Total . . . . January/Dec ember 2011F 2010F 2009 2008 2007 7.50* 6.82* 5.77 6.02 6.96 6.90* 6.70* 5.90 6.27 6.05 14.40* 13.52* 11.67 12.33 13.01 2.00* 2.05* 4.05* 4.80* 1.60* 6.40* 1.18 1.41 2.59 4.56 1.59 6.15 .72 1.03 1.75 5.07 2.32 7.39 .18 .36 .54 6.50 2.34 8.84
Oct 2, 2010
production .. 2.50* .. 2.30* .. 4.80*
Soya oil e xports Argentina . . . 5.00* Brazil . . . . . 1.20* Total . . . . . . 6.20*
www.oilworld.de
Dominance of Palm Oil - - usage boosted from 11.4 Mn in

90/91 to 49 Mn T in 2010/11
Consumption of 17 oils & fats more than doubled in 20 years ! Soya oil market share at 24 %, of rape at 13 % 2010/11
World Consumption of 17 Oils & Fats

2010/11 -- 176.6 Mn T
Palm Oil 27.9% Soya Oil 23.6% Rape Oil 10.7% Soya Oil 19.6% Sun Oil 10.3% Rape Oil 12.9% PKO&CNO 5.8% Others/An.Fats 39.7% Sun Oil 6.9% Others/An.Fats 23.6%
1990/91 - - 81.2 Mn T
Palm Oil 13.9%
PKO&CNO 5.1%
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
7 OILSEEDS: World. Harvest. Area & Veg. Oil Output

Area 2010/11: 238.3 million ha Production 10/11: 143.3 million tonnes
Soybean 43.2% Rape 13.5%
Rape Oil 15.8% Soya Oil 28.9% Cotton Oil 3.4% Sunflower 10.4% Sun Oil 8.4% Coconut Oil 2.3%
Cotton 14.1%
Coconut 4.0% Groundnut 9.1%
Palm & Palmkernel Oils 38.3%
Oil Palm 5.6%
Groundnut Oil 2.9%

Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
Palm oil yields per ha are much above soya and rape oils
Vegetable Oil Output per ha in 2008
5 4 3 2
EU Germany
1,6
T/ha Indonesia
3,8
Malaysia
4,5
1
U.S.A. Brazil
0,53 0,51
1,3
0
Palm oil Soya oil Rape oil
Oct 2, 2010
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Your OIL WORLD Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
www.oilworld.de
3,400 Ha of UPs advanced planting materials yielded an average of 7.59 MT CPO/Ha in 2009
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
Palm Oil Production in Key Countries (Mn T)

Indonesia has become the w orld largest producer of palm oil since 2006. In Indonesia: Slow ing dow n of acreage expansion in oil palms since 2009, partly due to protests of environmental groups
24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2
1997 1999
Malaysia
Indonesia
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Oct 2, 2010
January / December
Palm Oil : World Production

Annual Change (Mn T)
4,8 4,4 4 3,6 3,2 2,8 2,4 2 1,6 1,2 0,8 0,4 0 -0,4 -0,8
92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
Oct 2, 2010
Oct ober / Sept emb er

Rising Dependence on Palmoil

Palm oil to acco unt for 58% of world exports.
World palm oil exports 38.6 M n T in 2010/11, up 230% since 1997/98 Exports of soya, rape & sun oils shrinking by 0.3 M n T to o nly 16.7 Mn T in 2010/11 Since 1997/98 exports of all 17 oils & fats to do uble to 66.7 M n T in Oct/Sept 2010/11
17 Oils & Fats
39 36 33 30 27 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0
W orld Exports until 2009/10 in Mn T

S o y, R a p e, S u n O ils 4 A n im a l F ats P a lm O il 9 O the r
92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
Oilmeals
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
12 Oilmeals: World Production (Mn T)

180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
Soyameal
Soybeans : - - oil yield 18-19% - - meal yield 79-80% Insufficient supply of other oilseeds in 2010/11 requires aboveaverage growth in soybeans to satisfy veg oil demand, but creates a surplus in meals
Oct 2, 2010
Other 11 oilmeals
www.oilworld.de
World production of soya meal rising faster than for all other oilmeals. Soya meal: World output to increase by 14 Mn T to 177 Mn in 2010/11, but consumption at best at 176 Mn T, sizably raising world stocks of soya meal
12 Oilmeals: World Production (Mn T)

180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 94/95 96/9 7 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
Oct 2, 2010
Soyameal
Other 11 oilme als
www.oilworld.de
9 8 7 6 5 4 3
SOYA MEAL:
Mn T
Ending Stocks (Mn T)
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
E nd - S ep t e m b e r
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
SOYA MEAL : World Exports & Dominance of Argentina (Mn T)

60 50 40 30 20 10 0
94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
Oct 2, 2010
World Argentina
October / September
SOYA MEAL : World Exports ( Mn T ) October / September 10/11F 09/10 08/09 07/08 U.S.A. . . . . . . . 8.50* 10.08* 7.71 8.38 28.65* 24.25* Argentina. . . . . 24.21 26.80 Brazil . . . . . . . . 12.90* 12.50* 12.93 12.04 China . . . . . . . . 1.20* 1.28* 1.00 .59 India. . . . . . . . . 3.90* 2.67* 3.60 5.37 Other countries 3.45* 3.22* 3.24 3.16 58.60* 54.00* Total . . . . . . . . 52.69 56.34
95/96 5.45 8.20 12.14 .10 2.53 1.47 29.89
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
SOYA MEAL: World Disappearance
World consumption of soya meal set to rise by 14 Mn T in 2010/11. Insufficient production of rape meal, fish meal and other oilmeals will raise the dependence on soya meal.
Year-On-Year Change (Mn T) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10

98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
Oct 2, 2010
Oc to be r/ S e pte m be r
Reduced Global Fish Meal Supplies Raise Demand for Soya Meal
China and other Asian countries hit hard by the global shortage of fish meal. This is raising demand for highprotein soya meal Fish meal prices (now at $ 1400 in Peru) to remain at larger than usual premiums over soya meal.
Fish Meal Consumption (Mn T)

6 5 4 3 2 1 0 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
Oct 2, 2010
multi-year low 4.6 Mn T in 2010/11 vs. 6.8 Mn T in mid-nineties
Rest of World China
www.oilworld.de
12 OILMEALS: Usage in Key Countries (Mn T)

70 60 50 40 30 20
96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
EU -27 China
US A
October / September
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
Rapidly Rising Chinese Consumption of Oilmeals CHINA: Oilmeal Usage
China has doubled its consumption of oilmeals in the past 12 years. Most of the growth in aquaculture, poultry and pigs.
70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Mn T
12 Meals Soybean Meal
98/99
00/01
02/03 04/05 06/07 O ct obe r/S e pt e m ber
08/09
10/11
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
Concluding Statements
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
World supplies ample, at least in Sep/Febr 2010/11 Weather concern in South America World soya crush to be boosted by around 18 Mn T in 2010/11 We expect pressure on soya meal prices
SOYBEANS : World Supply and Dem and ( Mn T ) 10/11F 09/10 08/09 07/08 06/07 Opening stocks 68.28* 45.50* 59.57 71.45 59.32 Production 258.92* N. Hemisphere 129.85* U.S.A. . . . . . . . 94.79 S. Hemisphere 129.07* Argentina. . . . . 52.00* Brazil . . . . . . . . 65.50* Total supply 327.20* 260.64 125.00 91.42 135.64 54.70* 68.69 211.34 114.74 80.75 96.60 31.50* 57.17 220.46 104.79 72.86 115.67 46.20 60.02 237.59 121.44 87.00 116.15 48.30 58.73
306.14 270.91 291.91 296.91 205.76* 196.11 203.10 196.11 32.10* 29.30 29.24 29.35 68.28* 45.50 59.57 71.45 4.30* 3.76 5.58 15.62 20.2%
Oct 2, 2010
Crush (Sep/Aug). 224.00* Other use . . . . . . 32.40* Ending stocks U.S.A. Aug 31 Stocks/usage 70.80* 10.00*
27.6% 28.7% 25.6% 31.7% Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 www.oilworld.de
Monthly Prices of Soya Meal, 48%, Brazil

Soya meal prices weaken relative oil. Uncertainties If S.American soybean output does not fall by more than 7 Mn T in early 2011, I expect soya meal prices to fall 10 % from current levels
600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100
with 10-year average Jan 1998 - Dec 2007 (in US-$/T)
Soya pellets, 48%, Brazil, cif Rott.
Average 1998-2007: US-$ 220
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
'09 '10
From Oct 1997 until Sept 2010

Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
Edible oil prices now trading at a higher plateau
Soya Oil & Palm Oil: Monthly Prices (US-$/MT)

Palm oil, crude cif Rott. Soya oil, Dutch fob ex-mill
1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 Volatility to 1000 remain high 900 800 Strong demand 700 grow th from 600 500 the food and 400 the bioenergy 300 sectors 200 Palm oil prices 100 0 to reach $ 1000
in Rotterdam
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Monthly prices from Jan 1972 until Aug 2010

Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
Many risks and uncertainties ahead on the supply and demand side. Covering policy of consumers With palm oil yields to recover, it is likely that soya oil price premiums widen versus palm oil in 2010/11
Daily Prices of Soya Oil & RBD Palm Olein (US-$/T)

1200 1050 900 750 600 450 300 150 0 -150
Jan09Mar May Jly Sep Nov Jan10 MarApr Jun Sep Daily prices from 1 Jan 2009 until 29 Sept 2010
Oct 2, 2010
1200
Soya oil, Arg.fob
1050 900 750
RBD palm olein, Mal.fob
600 450 300 150 0 -150
Soya oil Premiums/discounts
www.oilworld.de
4 MAJOR OILS : Annual Average Prices

Soya oil prices could reach US $ 1050 in Argentina and $ 1150 in EU Sun oil prices could reach or exceed $ 1200 in Argentina and at the Black Sea and $ 1300 in Europe RBD palm olein may approach US $ 1000 fob Mal
1550 1450 1350 1250 1150 1050 950 850 750 650 550 450 350 250 150
Soya oil, Dutch (US-$/MT) Rape oil, Dutch (US-$/MT) Sun oil, EU, fob. (US-$/MT) Palm oil crude, cif Eur.
94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01
02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11F

Oct 2, 2010
July/June
Thank You for Your Kind Attention !

If I can be of assistance to you in the future, you are invited to contact me any time. More details (by commodity and country) and background information are given in the Oil World Monthly of Sept 17, 2010, which can all be obtained from the Internet.
Thomas.Mielke@oilworld.de
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de
Oct 2, 2010
www.oilworld.de

World Oilseed Outlook Sep 10 - Mielke

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Global Supply, Demand and Price Prospects of Major Oilseeds, Oils and Oilmeals

Presentation at Soya Summit in Minneapolis, 6 Oct 2010

Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958

Background to ISTA Mielke where OIL WORLD is produced

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The Global Oils/Fats Market is in a Production Deficit

Soya oil , Dutch Crude palm oil, cif N.W. Eur.

Daily prices from 1 Jan 2010 until 1 Oct 2010

Soybeans Dominate the Global Oilseed Market

The Outlook of Soybeans & other Oilseeds

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Global Production of 10 Oilseeds

Brazil 26% Other 6% Argentina 20% China 5% Cottonseed 10% Sunflowerseed 7%

Groundnuts 5% Rapeseed 13%

Other ctries 12%

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10 Oilseeds: World Production (Mn T)

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World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)

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Soybeans : Crushings in Key Countries (Mn T)

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World Supply and Demand ( Mn T )

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OILSEEDS: Surplus/Deficit of Production and Soybean Prices (in US-$/T)

400 200 0 -200

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World Stocks in Percent of Annual Usage

17 oils & fats 10 oilseeds

18 16 14 12 10 8 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

At the End of the Season

CBOT: Daily Soybean & Wheat Futures (c/bu)

Soybeans Nov 2010

Wheat Dec 2010

Nov DecJan10Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Jly Aug Sep

Daily futures from 1 Nov 2009 until 5 Oct 2010

CBOT: Daily Soya Meal Futures ($/ST)

50-day moving average

Daily futures from 1 Nov 2009 until 1 Oct 2010

CBOT: Daily Soya Oil Futures (c/lb)

Daily futures from 1 Nov 2009 until 1 Oct 2010

Where are we going from here ?

Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958

Where are we going from here ?

Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958

Soybean Crop Trend Since 74/75

Argentina, Brazil & Paraguay

74/75 80/81 86/87 92/93

98/99 04/05 10/11

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Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958

ARGENTINA: Development of Oilseed and Grain Plantings ( Mn ha )

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South American Soybean Production Prospects for Early 2011

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Number of Days without Rain

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Soil Moisture Supplies almost depleted

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Where are we going from here ?

Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958

Rapeseed and Oil