University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll

October 29, 2007 David P. Redlawsk, Director Caroline Tolbert, Co-Director

Department of Political Science
http://ssrc.uiowa.edu http://www.polisci.uiowa.edu http://www.uiowa.edu/election david-redlawsk@uiowa.edu caroline-tolbert@uiowa.edu

UI Social Science Research Center

Mission:toprovidesocialscienceresearch infrastructureandmakeitavailabletoawide varietyofconstituentswhoconductsocial scientificresearchatTheUniversityofIowa
The Social Science Research Center 311 Calvin Hall http://www.ssrc.uiowa.edu

Kevin Leicht Professor & Director

THE HAWKEYE POLL

.

TheHawkeyePollis
DAVIDREDLAWSK Director AssociateProfessor ofPoliticalScience

Partoftheteaching/learningmissionof theUniversityaswellasarigorously designedpublicopinionpolling operation; Aplatformforacademicresearchon politicalandpublicpolicytopics; AnexperienceforUIstudentsinsurvey researchthatconnectstotheiracademic workastheyserveastrainedcallersand workwithresultsintheirclasses; Aresourcetoincreaseour understandingofwhatcitizensare thinkingaboutissuesthatfaceIowaand nation.

CAROLINETOLBERT CoDirector AssociateProfessor ofPoliticalScience

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007

Telephone survey in field October 17-24 Random sample of Iowa Caucus Goers
306 Democratic Caucus Goers, +/- 5.5% 285 Republican Caucus Goers, +/- 5.8%

Part of a larger scale ongoing research

project at the University of Iowa

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007

REPUBLICAN CAUCUS CANDIDATE PREFERENCE

Summary
Mitt Romney has increased his Iowa lead since early August, when he registered 27.8% Huckabees Straw Poll bounce continues, going from 1.8% in early August to 12.8% now Giuliani had second place to himself in August, now a threeway tie for second

Romney Giuliani Huckabee Thompson McCain Dont Know

No other candidate over 3%

36.2% 13.1% 12.8% 11.4% 6.0% 14.9%

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

SupportforRepublicanCandidatesin2007
Romney

Don'tKnow Giuliani Huckabee Thompson McCain

March

August

Oct

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007
RepublicanCaucusSupportbyGender
Men Women 37.8 34.4

Gender in the Republican Caucus Race

Giuliani and Thompson both do better among men than women Romney is the only Republican doing better among women than men Women twice as likely to not yet have a preference

19.2 16.0 13.0 10.6 12.6 13.0 9.9 9.9

Giuliani

Huckabee

Romney

Thompson

Don'tKnow

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007
RepublicanCaucusSupportbyAge
50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Giuliani Huckabee 18to44 Romney 45to60 Thompson Over60 Don'tKnow 18.6 13.5 14.7 14.7 10.6 11.5 8.9 11.5 8.9 13.5 10.8 18.7 30.8 30.4 43.1

Age in the Republican Caucus Race

Romney has very strong support among the oldest Caucus goers Huckabee is most competitive among the Baby Boomers

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007

RepublicanCaucus CandidateSupportAmongChristianVoters
50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Giuliani Huckabee Romney Thompson Don'tKnow 14.4 12.6 6.5 21.6 13.0 10.8 14.4 11.7 41.7 29.7

Religious Voters and Republican Candidates

Romney does best among those Republicans who do not consider themselves born again Huckabees support is concentrated among born again Christians Thompson is not gaining the support of this group

Doesnotidentifyas"BornAgain"

Identifiesas"BornAgain"

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007 Summary: The Republicans
Mitt Romney continues his dominance in Iowa, increasing his lead. While Mike Huckabee has gained ground dramatically since the August Hawkeye Poll, he is still well behind Rudy Giuliani who seems stuck, and Fred Thompson, who is catching on slowly if at all. John McCain has not been able to recover from his collapse during the summer. The number of Republicans with no preference dropped sharply, indicating voters are beginning to focus on candidates. The key to the race for anyone but Romney is to figure out how to motivate Christian conservatives. Realistically Giuliani has little chance of doing so, leaving it hard to see how he can improve unless Romney slips up. Huckabee would seem to have the best chance of motivating these voters, if they are looking for someone other than Romney.

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007

DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS CANDIDATE PREFERENCE

Summary
Support for Edwards dropped from 26.0% in August, while Obama increased from 19.3% and Clinton increased from 24.8% The Democrats continue to have three leading candidates, no other candidate is close to them Edwards drop has occurred as Caucus goers give new attention to Biden and Obama

Clinton Obama Edwards Richardson Biden Dont Know

No other candidate over 3%

28.9% 26.6% 20.0% 7.2% 5.3% 8.9%

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007

SupportforDemocraticCandidatesin2007
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 March August
Don'tKnow Richardson Biden Clinton Obama Edwards

Oct

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007
DemocraticCaucusSupport,byGender
Women 33.0 26.5 26.7 Men

Gender plays a role for the Democrats

Mens preferences: Obama, then Edwards, then Clinton

25.0 22.5 16.8

10.3 6.7

Womens preferences: Clinton, then Obama, then Edwards

Clinton

Edwards

Obama

Don'tKnow

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007
SupportforHillaryClintonduring2007 byGender
Women 31.7 24.8 22.3 18.1 10.5 6.7 Men Difference=GenderGap 33.0

Gender plays a role for the Democrats

Clinton gender gap grew in October over August Largest gender gap yet

22.5

9.4

March

August

October

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007
DemocraticCaucusSupportbyAgeGroup
45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Clinton Edwards 18to44 45to60 Obama Over60 Don'tKnow 7.4 4.4 19.1 16.2 16.5 30.7 31.4 26.3 21.1 14.1 24.0 41.2

Age is an important factor for the Democrats

Obama is the overwhelming choice of Caucus goers under 45 years old Clinton does well among all those 45 and over Edwards greatest support is from Baby Boomers

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007

CandidatePreferenceinUnionHouseholds
30 25 20 15 10 6 5 0 Clinton Edwards Obama Richardson Other Don'tKnow 19 14 28 26

Labor Support
Clinton and Edwards are strongest among the 18% of households with a union member Richardsons support among union households is much greater than his overall support

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007
"VeryLikely"toSupportGoreifHeEnters PresidentialRace
35 30.8 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Clinton Edwards Obama Richardson Don'tKnow CandidateCurrentlySupporting 8.1 14.3 21.7 23.4

What if AL GORE Ran?

19.6% of Democrats would be very likely and 34.5% would be somewhat likely to support him Few Clinton supporters would be very likely to support Gore, but more than 1 in 5 Edwards and Obama supporters would. Nearly a third of dont knows say they would support Gore.

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007 Summary: The Democrats
After trailing during most of the year, Clinton is now leading with Obama close behind. Clintons support stems primarily from her dominance among female Caucus goers. Obamas support comes disproportionately from younger voters. The key for either candidate is to mobilize their bases. This is likely to be much harder for Obama than for Clinton, since historically Caucus goers are older. We see clear evidence of the difficulty Obama faces: only 48% of his supporters say they are Very Likely to caucus and only 54% actually did caucus in 2004. Edwards may still be positioned to challenge both of the other top Democrats. While now trailing, he remains close among those most likely to caucus and 75% of his supporters are experienced caucus goers.

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007

MostImportantIssuebyParty
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Democrats Republicans 23.2 15.8 15.8 7.2 1.4
Ab or ti o n Ec on om y

What are the Issues?

Democrats and Republicans differ some on perceptions of the most important issue.
21.9

34.9

13.7 6.7 9.7 4.0 5.7 1.1

He En v ir on me on

15.5

For Democrats: Iraq, Health care, the Economy are the top three For Republicans, Terrorism, the Economy, and Iraq are the top three

2.4

1.7
Ir a Te

Im

Ed uc a ti

rr o

mi gr a tio n

q W

a lt h C ar e nt

ri s m

ar

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007
80.0 70.0 Democrats 60.0 50.0 40.0 29.7 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 DeportAll GuestWorker EarnedCitizenship Permanant residency 14.7 16.5 12.0 6.5 2.2 Republicans 51.7

ImmigrationPoliciesbyParty
66.9

ReponsibleforImmigration Situation
70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Undocumented Immigrants Employers ImmigrationPolicies 14.2 19.5 Democrats Republicans 57.3 49.2 28.5 31.3

Immigration in Iowa
No change in policy preference or responsibility assignment over time. The issue remains important, and Republicans remain somewhat more likely to advocate deportation, though the majority chooses earned citizenship.

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007

SatisfactionwithCandidates byParty
80 60 40 20 20 0 NotSatisfied SomewhatSatisfied Republicans Democrats VerySatisfied 10 11 69 50 40

Republicans seem less happy than Democrats

40% of Democrats are Very Satisfied with their candidates, while only 11% of Republicans say the same

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007

IowaCaucusGoersCampaignInvolvement
80 72 70 60 50 42 40 30 30 22 20 10 0 31 66 70 67

Republicans are less engaged in the caucus campaigns overall

On all our measures, Republicans are less likely than Democrats to be focusing on the campaign. Even so, lots of Iowa caucus goers are paying attention!

Dem Rep

Thoughtquitealotabout Followedcampaignvery Watchedatleastone Excitedbythecampaigns theelection closely debate

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007 Plans for the University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll
Continuing Polling through the Iowa Caucuses Pre and Post Iowa Caucus Telephone Survey/Panel Study In-Caucus survey in all 1784 Democratic caucuses Collection of a comprehensive dataset of Iowa Caucus goers Post Caucus Polling Planning for a national sample survey before/after Feb 5 primaries Continued monitoring of the general election battleground in Iowa

Hawkeye Poll
October 29, 2007
David P. Redlawsk, Director Caroline Tolbert, Co-Director
Department of Political Science

Special Thanks to our crack Polling Team: Daniel Bowen, Nick Martini, James Rydberg, Howard Sanborn, Tina Wildhagen, and Brigid Freymuller Funding provided by the University of Iowa Office of the Provost and the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences